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Sample records for disease risk score

  1. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

    PubMed

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

    2014-12-02

    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

  2. A new explained-variance based genetic risk score for predictive modeling of disease risk.

    PubMed

    Che, Ronglin; Motsinger-Reif, Alison A

    2012-09-25

    The goal of association mapping is to identify genetic variants that predict disease, and as the field of human genetics matures, the number of successful association studies is increasing. Many such studies have shown that for many diseases, risk is explained by a reasonably large number of variants that each explains a very small amount of disease risk. This is prompting the use of genetic risk scores in building predictive models, where information across several variants is combined for predictive modeling. In the current study, we compare the performance of four previously proposed genetic risk score methods and present a new method for constructing genetic risk score that incorporates explained variance information. The methods compared include: a simple count Genetic Risk Score, an odds ratio weighted Genetic Risk Score, a direct logistic regression Genetic Risk Score, a polygenic Genetic Risk Score, and the new explained variance weighted Genetic Risk Score. We compare the methods using a wide range of simulations in two steps, with a range of the number of deleterious single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explaining disease risk, genetic modes, baseline penetrances, sample sizes, relative risks (RR) and minor allele frequencies (MAF). Several measures of model performance were compared including overall power, C-statistic and Akaike's Information Criterion. Our results show the relative performance of methods differs significantly, with the new explained variance weighted GRS (EV-GRS) generally performing favorably to the other methods.

  3. Multi-locus genetic risk score predicts risk for Crohn’s disease in Slovenian population

    PubMed Central

    Zupančič, Katarina; Skok, Kristijan; Repnik, Katja; Weersma, Rinse K; Potočnik, Uroš; Skok, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To develop a risk model for Crohn’s disease (CD) based on homogeneous population. METHODS: In our study were included 160 CD patients and 209 healthy individuals from Slovenia. The association study was performed for 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We generated genetic risk scores (GRS) based on the number of risk alleles using weighted additive model. Discriminatory accuracy was measured by area under ROC curve (AUC). For risk evaluation, we divided individuals according to positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR) of a test, with LR > 5 for high risk group and LR < 0.20 for low risk group. RESULTS: The highest accuracy, AUC of 0.78 was achieved with GRS combining 33 SNPs with optimal sensitivity and specificity of 75.0% and 72.7%, respectively. Individuals with the highest risk (GRS > 5.54) showed significantly increased odds of developing CD (OR = 26.65, 95%CI: 11.25-63.15) compared to the individuals with the lowest risk (GRS < 4.57) which is a considerably greater risk captured than in one SNP with the highest effect size (OR = 3.24). When more than 33 SNPs were included in GRS, discriminatory ability was not improved significantly; AUC of all 74 SNPs was 0.76. CONCLUSION: The authors proved the possibility of building accurate genetic risk score based on 33 risk variants on Slovenian CD patients which may serve as a screening tool in the targeted population. PMID:27076762

  4. Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Using Framingham Risk Score in Korean Cancer Survivors

    PubMed Central

    So, Ji-Hyun; Shin, Jin-Young; Park, Wan

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in cancer survivors. The aim of this study was to investigate the modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors and 10-year probability of the disease based on the Framingham risk score in cancer survivors, compared with the general population. Methods A total of 1,225 cancer survivors and 5,196 non-cancer controls who participated in the 2007–2013 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were enrolled. We assessed modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors including smoking, body mass index, physical inactivity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and elevated blood glucose level. The 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease was determined by applying the Framingham cardiovascular disease risk equation among cancer survivors and non-cancer controls, ranging from 30 to 74 years old who had no overt cardiovascular diseases. Results The proportion of subjects who had higher fasting glucose levels, hemoglobin A1c levels, systolic blood pressure, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and those who had lower high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels was significantly higher in the cancer survivors than in the non-cancer controls. The average 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease among the cancer survivors was higher than that in the non-cancer controls in both men and women. The average 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease in relation to the cancer type was significantly higher in patients with hepatic, colon, lung, breast, and gastric cancer. Conclusion Cancer survivors have a higher cardiovascular disease risk and 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease than non-cancer controls. Control of cardiovascular disease risk factors and implementation of a well-defined cardiovascular disease prevention program are needed for treating cancer survivors. PMID:27468342

  5. Agreement Between Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores in Resource-Limited Settings: Evidence from 5 Peruvian Sites

    PubMed Central

    Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Quispe, Renato; Peralta, Frank; Poterico, Julio A.; Valle, Giancarlo A.; Burroughs, Melissa; Pillay, Timesh; Gilman, Robert H.; Checkley, William; Malaga, Germán; Smeeth, Liam; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    It is unclear how well currently available risk scores predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in low-income and middle-income countries. We aim to compare the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort risk equations (ACC/AHA model) with 6 other CVD risk tools to assess the concordance of predicted CVD risk in a random sample from 5 geographically diverse Peruvian populations. We used data from 2 Peruvian, age and sex-matched, population-based studies across 5 geographical sites. The ACC/AHA model were compared with 6 other CVD risk prediction tools: laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, non-laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, Reynolds risk score, systematic coronary risk evaluation, World Health Organization risk charts, and the Lancet chronic diseases risk charts. Main outcome was in agreement with predicted CVD risk using Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient. Two thousand one hundred and eighty-three subjects, mean age 54.3 (SD ± 5.6) years, were included in the analysis. Overall, we found poor agreement between different scores when compared with ACC/AHA model. When each of the risk scores was used with cut-offs specified in guidelines, ACC/AHA model depicted the highest proportion of people at high CVD risk predicted at 10 years, with a prevalence of 29.0% (95% confidence interval, 26.9–31.0%), whereas prevalence with World Health Organization risk charts was 0.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.2–8.6%). In conclusion, poor concordance between current CVD risk scores demonstrates the uncertainty of choosing any of them for public health and clinical interventions in Latin American populations. There is a need to improve the evidence base of risk scores for CVD in low-income and middle-income countries. PMID:26102017

  6. Agreement Between Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores in Resource-Limited Settings: Evidence from 5 Peruvian Sites.

    PubMed

    Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Quispe, Renato; Peralta, Frank; Poterico, Julio A; Valle, Giancarlo A; Burroughs, Melissa; Pillay, Timesh; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Malaga, Germán; Smeeth, Liam; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-06-01

    It is unclear how well currently available risk scores predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in low-income and middle-income countries. We aim to compare the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort risk equations (ACC/AHA model) with 6 other CVD risk tools to assess the concordance of predicted CVD risk in a random sample from 5 geographically diverse Peruvian populations. We used data from 2 Peruvian, age and sex-matched, population-based studies across 5 geographical sites. The ACC/AHA model were compared with 6 other CVD risk prediction tools: laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, non-laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, Reynolds risk score, systematic coronary risk evaluation, World Health Organization risk charts, and the Lancet chronic diseases risk charts. Main outcome was in agreement with predicted CVD risk using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Two thousand one hundred and eighty-three subjects, mean age 54.3 (SD ± 5.6) years, were included in the analysis. Overall, we found poor agreement between different scores when compared with ACC/AHA model. When each of the risk scores was used with cut-offs specified in guidelines, ACC/AHA model depicted the highest proportion of people at high CVD risk predicted at 10 years, with a prevalence of 29.0% (95% confidence interval, 26.9-31.0%), whereas prevalence with World Health Organization risk charts was 0.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-8.6%). In conclusion, poor concordance between current CVD risk scores demonstrates the uncertainty of choosing any of them for public health and clinical interventions in Latin American populations. There is a need to improve the evidence base of risk scores for CVD in low-income and middle-income countries.

  7. A Risk Prediction Score for Invasive Mold Disease in Patients with Hematological Malignancies

    PubMed Central

    Stanzani, Marta; Lewis, Russell E.; Fiacchini, Mauro; Ricci, Paolo; Tumietto, Fabio; Viale, Pierluigi; Ambretti, Simone; Baccarani, Michele; Cavo, Michele; Vianelli, Nicola

    2013-01-01

    Background A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD) in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008) to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. Results Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD) were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of < 6 discriminated patients with low (< 1%) versus higher incidence rates (> 5%) of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99). During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of < 6 had significantly lower 90-day incidence rates of IMD compared to patients with scores > 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001). Conclusion An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate “screening-out” of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis. PMID:24086555

  8. Increased 10-year cardiovascular disease and mortality risk scores in asymptomatic patients with calcium oxalate urolithiasis.

    PubMed

    Aydin, Hasan; Yencilek, Faruk; Erihan, Ismet Bilger; Okan, Binnur; Sarica, Kemal

    2011-12-01

    Both the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and event rate are increased in patients with urolithiasis. Screening is recommended to all patients who have high cardiovascular risk. The aim of this study was to document 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in asymptomatic patients with urolithiasis. Consecutive 200 patients with calcium oxalate urolithiasis were compared with 200 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. Ten-year cardiovascular disease risk was calculated with the Framingham Risk Score and mortality risk with SCORE risk score. Calcium, oxalate, and citrate excretion were studied as urinary stone risk factors. The results indicate that patients with urolithiasis had higher total cholesterol (p < 0.0001), lower HDL-cholesterol (p < 0.0001), and higher systolic blood pressure (p < 0.0001) and hsCRP (p < 0.0001) compared with controls. Patients with urolithiasis had a higher Framingham Risk Scores [OR 8.36 (95% CI 3.81-18.65), p = 0.0001] and SCORE risk score [OR 3.02 (95% CI 1.30-7.02), p = 0.0006] compared with controls. The Framingham and SCORE risk score were significantly correlated with urinary calcium (p = 0.0001, r = 0.460, and p = 0.005, r = 0.223, respectively) and oxalate excretion (p = 0.0001, r = 0.516, p = 0.001, r = 0.290, respectively). In multiple linear regression analysis, urinary calcium and oxalate excretion, age, sex, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, hsCRP and smoking were the independent predictors of 10-year cardiovascular disease risk and urinary calcium and oxalate excretion, age, sex, total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose for 10-year cardiovascular mortality. In conclusion, patients with calcium oxalate urolithiasis carry high risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. All patients should be screened at the initial diagnosis of urolithiasis for the risk factors.

  9. Predicting Parkinson disease in the community using a nonmotor risk score.

    PubMed

    Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Koudstaal, Peter J; Stricker, Bruno H; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Ikram, M Arfan

    2016-07-01

    At present, there are no validated methods to identify persons who are at increased risk for Parkinson Disease (PD) from the general population. We investigated the clinical usefulness of a recently proposed non-motor risk score for PD (the PREDICT-PD risk score) in the population-based Rotterdam Study. At baseline (1990), we constructed a weighted risk score based on 10 early nonmotor features and risk factors in 6492 persons free of parkinsonism and dementia. We followed these persons for up to 20 years (median 16.1 years) for the onset of PD until 2011. We studied the association between the PREDICT-PD risk score and incident PD using competing risk regression models with adjustment for age and sex. In addition, we assessed whether the PREDICT-PD risk score improved discrimination (C-statistics) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement) of incident PD beyond age and sex. During follow-up, 110 persons were diagnosed with incident PD. The PREDICT-PD risk score was associated with incident PD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.30; 95 % confidence interval [1.06; 1.59]) and yielded a small, non-significant improvement in overall discrimination (ΔC-statistic = 0.018[-0.005; 0.041]) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement = 0.172[-0.017; 0.360]) of incident PD. In conclusion, the PREDICT-PD risk score only slightly improves long-term prediction of PD in the community.

  10. Disease Risk Assessment Using a Voronoi-Based Network Analysis of Genes and Variants Scores

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lin; Mukerjee, Gouri; Dorfman, Ruslan; Moghadas, Seyed M.

    2017-01-01

    Much effort has been devoted to assess disease risk based on large-scale protein-protein network and genotype-phenotype associations. However, the challenge of risk prediction for complex diseases remains unaddressed. Here, we propose a framework to quantify the risk based on a Voronoi tessellation network analysis, taking into account the disease association scores of both genes and variants. By integrating ClinVar, SNPnexus, and DISEASES databases, we introduce a gene-variant map that is based on the pairwise disease-associated gene-variant scores. This map is clustered using Voronoi tessellation and network analysis with a threshold obtained from fitting the background Voronoi cell density distribution. We define the relative risk of disease that is inferred from the scores of the data points within the related clusters on the gene-variant map. We identify autoimmune-associated clusters that may interact at the system-level. The proposed framework can be used to determine the clusters that are specific to a subtype or contribute to multiple subtypes of complex diseases. PMID:28326099

  11. Risk Score Model for Predicting Sonographic Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Children and Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Hosseini, Sayed-Mohsen; Mousavi, Saeid; Poursafa, Parinaz; Kelishadi, Roya

    2011-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to develop and test the validity of a risk score to be used as a simple tool to identify those children at high risk of sonographic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted among 962 participants aged 6–18 years in Isfahan, Iran. They consisted of three groups of nearly equal number of normal-weight, overweight and obese individuals. Coefficients of the logistic regression models were used to assign a score value for each variable and the composite sonographic NAFLD risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. Performance of model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve procedure. Findings Data of 931 participants was included in the analysis. The sonographic findings of 16.8% of participants were compatible with NAFLD. Age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference and serum triglycerides level were diagnosed as factors associated with NAFLD. The risk score was calculated as 50 for sonographic NAFLD. Conclusion This study, to the best of our knowledge is the first of its kind in the pediatric age group, focuses on predicting sonographic NAFLD from easily-measured factors. It may suggest an association of hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype with NAFLD in the pediatric age group. PMID:23056785

  12. Framingham Risk Score underestimates cardiovascular disease risk in severe psoriatic patients: implications in cardiovascular risk factors management and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Torres, Tiago; Sales, Rita; Vasconcelos, Carlos; Martins da Silva, Berta; Selores, Manuela

    2013-11-01

    Severe psoriasis has been associated with increase cardiovascular mortality, due to a higher prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and premature atherosclerosis, as a consequence of its systemic inflammation. Recently, it has been estimated that severe psoriasis may confer an increased 6.2% on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease based on Framingham Risk Score, which can have practical implications in the treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as treatment guidelines account for the risk of cardiovascular disease in treatment goals. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of the attributable risk of severe psoriasis on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and its implication on the correct treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease on a real-world cohort of patients. One hundred severe psoriasis patients without psoriatic arthritis or previous cardiovascular disease were evaluated and it was found that more than half of the patients were reclassified to a higher cardiovascular risk category with important clinical implications on the correct management of their cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as a considerable proportion of patients with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and coronary heart disease equivalent risk were not being correctly managed.

  13. Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring in Detection of Coronary Artery Disease according to Framingham Risk Score in Populations with Low to Intermediate Risks.

    PubMed

    Kim, Won-Jang; Kwon, Chang Hee; Han, Seungbong; Lee, Woo Seok; Kang, Joon Won; Ahn, Jung-Min; Lee, Jong-Young; Park, Duk-Woo; Kang, Soo-Jin; Lee, Seung-Whan; Kim, Young-Hak; Lee, Cheol Whan; Park, Seong-Wook; Park, Seung-Jung

    2016-06-01

    Current guidelines recommend that coronary artery calcium (CAC) screening should only be used for intermediate risk groups (Framingham risk score [FRS] of 10%-20%). The CAC distributions and coronary artery disease (CAD) prevalence in various FRS strata were determined. The benefit to lower risk populations of CAC score-based screening was also assessed. In total, 1,854 participants (aged 40-79 years) without history of CAD, stroke, or diabetes were enrolled. CAC scores of > 0, ≥ 100, and ≥ 300 were present in 33.8%, 8.2%, and 2.9% of the participants, respectively. The CAC scores rose significantly as the FRS grew more severe (P < 0.01). The total CAD prevalence was 6.1%. The occult CAD prevalence in the FRS ≤ 5%, 6%-10%, 11%-20%, and > 20% strata were 3.4%, 6.7%, 9.0%, and 11.6% (P < 0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusting, not only the intermediate and high risk groups but also the low risk (FRS 6%-10%) group had significantly increased odds ratio for occult CAD compared to the very low-risk (FRS ≤ 5%) group (1.89 [95% confidence interval, CI, 1.09-3.29] in FRS 6%-10%; 2.48 [95% CI, 1.47-4.20] in FRS 11%-20%; and 3.10 [95% CI, 1.75-5.47] in FRS > 20%; P < 0.05). In conclusion, the yield of screening for significant CAC and occult CAD is low in the very low risk population but it rises in low and intermediate risk populations.

  14. Cardiovascular disease risk scores in the current practice: which to use in rheumatoid arthritis?

    PubMed

    Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Gheorghe, A; Udrea, G; Stoica, V

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the highest prevalence disease in the general population (GP) and it accounts for 20 million deaths worldwide each year. Its prevalence is even higher in rheumatoid arthritis. Early detection of subclinical disease is critical and the use of cardiovascular risk prediction models and calculators is widely spread. The impact of such techniques in the GP was previously studied. Despite their common background and similarities, some disagreement exists between most scores and their importance in special high-risk populations like rheumatoid arthritis (RA), having a low level of evidence. The current article aims to single out those predictive models (models) that could be most useful in the care of rheumatoid arthritis patients.

  15. The Addition of Vascular Calcification Scores to Traditional Risk Factors Improves Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

    PubMed Central

    Diouf, Momar; Temmar, Mohamed; Renard, Cédric; Choukroun, Gabriel; Massy, Ziad A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although a variety of non-invasive methods for measuring cardiovascular (CV) risk (such as carotid intima media thickness, pulse wave velocity (PWV), coronary artery and aortic calcification scores (measured either by CT scan or X-ray) and the ankle brachial index (ABI)) have been evaluated separately in chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohorts, few studies have evaluated these methods simultaneously. Here, we looked at whether the addition of non-invasive methods to traditional risk factors (TRFs) improves prediction of the CV risk in patients at different CKD stages. Methods We performed a prospective, observational study of the relationship between the outputs of non-invasive measurement methods on one hand and mortality and CV outcomes in 143 patients at different CKD stages on the other. During the follow-up period, 44 patients died and 30 CV events were recorded. We used Cox models to calculate the relative risk for outcomes. To assess the putative clinical value of each method, we also determined the categorical net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement. Results Vascular calcification, PWV and ABI predicted all-cause mortality and CV events in univariate analyses. However, after adjustment for TRFs, only aortic and coronary artery calcification scores were found to be significant, independent variables. Moreover, the addition of coronary artery calcification scores to TRFs improved the specificity of prediction by 20%. Conclusion The addition of vascular calcification scores (especially the coronary artery calcification score) to TRFs appears to improve CV risk assessment in a CKD population. PMID:26181592

  16. Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

    PubMed

    Zannad, Faiez; De Backer, Guy; Graham, Ian; Lorenz, Matthias; Mancia, Giuseppe; Morrow, David A; Reiner, Zeljko; Koenig, Wolfgang; Dallongeville, Jean; Macfadyen, Robert J; Ruilope, Luis M; Wilhelmsen, Lars

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

  17. Disease Risk Score (DRS) as a Confounder Summary Method: Systematic Review and Recommendations

    PubMed Central

    Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J.; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. Methods We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Results Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Conclusion Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. PMID:23172692

  18. Dietary compound score and risk of age-related macular degeneration in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Purpose: Because foods provide many nutrients, which may interact with each other to modify risk for multifactorial diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD), we sought to develop a composite scoring system to summarize the combined effect of multiple dietary nutrients on AMD risk. Th...

  19. Race-specific genetic risk score is more accurate than nonrace-specific genetic risk score for predicting prostate cancer and high-grade diseases.

    PubMed

    Na, Rong; Ye, Dingwei; Qi, Jun; Liu, Fang; Lin, Xiaoling; Helfand, Brian T; Brendler, Charles B; Conran, Carly; Gong, Jian; Wu, Yishuo; Gao, Xu; Chen, Yaqing; Zheng, S Lilly; Mo, Zengnan; Ding, Qiang; Sun, Yinghao; Xu, Jianfeng

    2016-01-01

    Genetic risk score (GRS) based on disease risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is an informative tool that can be used to provide inherited information for specific diseases in addition to family history. However, it is still unknown whether only SNPs that are implicated in a specific racial group should be used when calculating GRSs. The objective of this study is to compare the performance of race-specific GRS and nonrace-specific GRS for predicting prostate cancer (PCa) among 1338 patients underwent prostate biopsy in Shanghai, China. A race-specific GRS was calculated with seven PCa risk-associated SNPs implicated in East Asians (GRS7), and a nonrace-specific GRS was calculated based on 76 PCa risk-associated SNPs implicated in at least one racial group (GRS76). The means of GRS7 and GRS76 were 1.19 and 1.85, respectively, in the study population. Higher GRS7 and GRS76 were independent predictors for PCa and high-grade PCa in univariate and multivariate analyses. GRS7 had a better area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) than GRS76 for discriminating PCa (0.602 vs 0.573) and high-grade PCa (0.603 vs 0.575) but did not reach statistical significance. GRS7 had a better (up to 13% at different cutoffs) positive predictive value (PPV) than GRS76. In conclusion, a race-specific GRS is more robust and has a better performance when predicting PCa in East Asian men than a GRS calculated using SNPs that are not shown to be associated with East Asians.

  20. A new risk score model to predict the presence of significant coronary artery disease in renal transplant candidates

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Renal transplant candidates are at high risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). We sought to develop a new risk score model to determine the pre-test probability of the occurrence of significant CAD in renal transplant candidates. Methods A total of 1,060 renal transplant candidates underwent a comprehensive cardiovascular risk evaluation. Patients considered at high risk of CAD (age ≥50 years, with either diabetes mellitus (DM) or cardiovascular disease (CVD)), or having noninvasive testing suggestive of CAD were referred for coronary angiography (n = 524). Significant CAD was defined by the presence of luminal stenosis ≥70%. A binary logistic regression model was built, and the resulting logistic regression coefficient B for each variable was multiplied by 10 and rounded to the next whole number. For each patient, a corresponding risk score was calculated and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed. Results The final equation for the model was risk score = (age × 0.4) + (DM × 9) + (CVD × 14) and for the probability of CAD (%) = (risk score × 2) – 23. The corresponding ROC for the accuracy of the diagnosis of CAD was 0.75 (P <0.0001) in the developmental model. Conclusions We developed a simple clinical risk score to determine the pre-test probability of significant CAD in renal transplant candidates. This model may help those directly involved in the care of patients with end-stage renal disease being considered for transplantation in an attempt to reduce the rate of cardiovascular events that presently hampers the long-term prognosis of such patients. PMID:24176034

  1. Performance of the Pooled Cohort Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score in Hepatitis C Virus-infected Persons.

    PubMed

    Chew, Kara W; Bhattacharya, Debika; Horwich, Tamara B; Yan, Peng; McGinnis, Kathleen A; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Freiberg, Matthew S; Currier, Judith S; Butt, Adeel A

    2017-03-08

    Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The recommended Pooled Cohort Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk equation for estimation of 10-year CVD risk has not been validated in HCV-infected populations. We examined the performance of the ASCVD risk score in HCV-infected persons, using the national Electronically Retrieved Cohort of HCV Infected Veterans (ERCHIVES) to derive a cohort of HCV-infected and uninfected subjects without baseline ASCVD, hepatitis B, or HIV infection, and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level<190 mg/dL. Performance of the ASCVD risk equation was assessed by Cox proportional hazard regression, C-statistics, and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The cohort included 70,490 HCV-infected and 97,766 HCV-uninfected men with mean age of 55 years, 56% white and 29% black. Incident CVD event rates were similar between the two groups (13.2 and 13.4 events/1000 person-years), with a higher incidence of coronary heart disease events in the HCV-uninfected group and of stroke events in the HCV-infected group. Adjusting for ASCVD risk score, HCV infection was associated with higher risk for an ASCVD event in the subgroup with baseline ASCVD risk ≥7.5% (HR 1.19, p<0.0001). C-statistics were poor in both the HCV-infected and uninfected groups (0.60 and 0.61, respectively). By Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the ASCVD risk equation overestimated risk amongst lower risk patients and underestimated risk amongst higher risk patients in both the HCV-infected and uninfected groups. Further investigation is needed to determine if a modified equation to accurately predict ASCVD risk in HCV-infected persons is warranted. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  2. Development of new risk score for pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease based on coronary CT angiography.

    PubMed

    Fujimoto, Shinichiro; Kondo, Takeshi; Yamamoto, Hideya; Yokoyama, Naoyuki; Tarutani, Yasuhiro; Takamura, Kazuhisa; Urabe, Yoji; Konno, Kumiko; Nishizaki, Yuji; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Kihara, Yasuki; Daida, Hiroyuki; Isshiki, Takaaki; Takase, Shinichi

    2015-09-01

    Existing methods to calculate pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) have been established using selected high-risk patients who were referred to conventional coronary angiography. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate our new method for pre-test probability of obstructive CAD using patients who underwent coronary CT angiography (CTA), which could be applicable to a wider range of patient population. Using consecutive 4137 patients with suspected CAD who underwent coronary CTA at our institution, a multivariate logistic regression model including clinical factors as covariates calculated the pre-test probability (K-score) of obstructive CAD determined by coronary CTA. The K-score was compared with the Duke clinical score using the area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver-operating characteristic curve. External validation was performed by an independent sample of 319 patients. The final model included eight significant predictors: age, gender, coronary risk factor (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, smoking), history of cerebral infarction, and chest symptom. The AUC of the K-score was significantly greater than that of the Duke clinical score for both derivation (0.736 vs. 0.699) and validation (0.714 vs. 0.688) data sets. Among patients who underwent coronary CTA, newly developed K-score had better pre-test prediction ability of obstructive CAD compared to Duke clinical score in Japanese population.

  3. Physical Activity Level Improves the Predictive Accuracy of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: The ATTICA Study (2002–2012)

    PubMed Central

    Georgousopoulou, Ekavi N.; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B.; Bougatsas, Dimitrios; Chatzigeorgiou, Michael; Kavouras, Stavros A.; Chrysohoou, Christina; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tousoulis, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Pitsavos, Christos

    2016-01-01

    Background: Although physical activity (PA) has long been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), assessment of PA status has never been used as a part of CVD risk prediction tools. The aim of the present work was to examine whether the inclusion of PA status in a CVD risk model improves its predictive accuracy. Methods: Data from the 10-year follow-up (2002–2012) of the n = 2020 participants (aged 18–89 years) of the ATTICA prospective study were used to test the research hypothesis. The HellenicSCORE (that incorporates age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure levels) was calculated to estimate the baseline 10-year CVD risk; assessment of PA status was based on the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The estimated CVD risk was tested against the observed 10-year incidence (i.e., development of acute coronary syndromes, stroke, or other CVD according to the World Health Organization [WHO]-International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-10 criteria). Changes in the predictive ability of the nested CVD risk model that contained the HellenicSCORE plus PA assessment were evaluated using Harrell's C and net reclassification index. Results: Both HellenicSCORE and PA status were predictors of future CVD events (P < 0.05). However, the estimating classification bias of the model that included only the HellenicSCORE was significantly reduced when PA assessment was included (Harrel's C = 0.012, P = 0.032); this reduction remained significant even when adjusted for diabetes mellitus and dietary habits (P < 0.05). Conclusions: CVD risk scores seem to be more accurate by incorporating individuals’ PA status; thus, may be more effective tools in primary prevention by efficiently allocating CVD candidates. PMID:27076890

  4. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese

  5. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-03-01

    The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806-0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768-0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738-0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692-0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese adults over 55

  6. Predicting coronary heart disease: from Framingham Risk Score to ultrasound bioimaging.

    PubMed

    Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have been tested and found useful (ie, coronary calcium detection by computed tomography scanning, reduction in ankle-brachial index, and ultrasound scanning of the carotid arteries). This review will focus on the latter technique. Detection of thickened carotid intima-media by ultrasound has been used in many large epidemiological studies, but although it has been found to be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death, its clinical utility is limited. Detection of carotid plaque has, on the other hand, been found to be associated with a substantial risk of future events. Similarly, detection of plaque in the femoral arteries is associated with increased risk, and plaque in the femoral as well as carotid arteries predicts even higher risk. Furthermore, quantification of plaque size (plaque area), such as quantification of amount of coronary calcium on computed tomography scanning, improves predictability-the larger the plaques, the higher the risk. So far, studies using ultrasound all have been performed with 2-dimensional ultrasound imaging. Recently, 3-dimensional ultrasound imaging has been introduced, which allows for more accurate quantification of atherosclerosis. Small studies pioneering its use have indicated the utility of measuring changes in vessel-wall volume and plaque volume with respect to treatment effect. The High-Risk Plaque Initiative BioImage Study is currently investigating the predictive value of total carotid plaque volume with respect to prediction of future cardiovascular events.

  7. Feasibility of an automated quantitative computed tomography angiography-derived risk score for risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    de Graaf, Michiel A; Broersen, Alexander; Ahmed, Wehab; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Dijkstra, Jouke; Kroft, Lucia J; Delgado, Victoria; Bax, Jeroen J; Reiber, Johan H C; Scholte, Arthur J

    2014-06-15

    Coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) has important prognostic value. Additionally, quantitative CTA (QCT) provides a more detailed accurate assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD) on CTA. Potentially, a risk score incorporating all quantitative stenosis parameters allows accurate risk stratification. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine if an automatic quantitative assessment of CAD using QCT combined into a CTA risk score allows risk stratification of patients. In 300 patients, QCT was performed to automatically detect and quantify all lesions in the coronary tree. Using QCT, a novel CTA risk score was calculated based on plaque extent, severity, composition, and location on a segment basis. During follow-up, the composite end point of all-cause mortality, revascularization, and nonfatal infarction was recorded. In total, 10% of patients experienced an event during a median follow-up of 2.14 years. The CTA risk score was significantly higher in patients with an event (12.5 [interquartile range 8.6 to 16.4] vs 1.7 [interquartile range 0 to 8.4], p <0.001). In 127 patients with obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis), 27 events were recorded, all in patients with a high CTA risk score. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that a fully automatic QCT analysis of CAD is feasible and can be applied for risk stratification of patients with suspected CAD. Furthermore, a novel CTA risk score incorporating location, severity, and composition of coronary lesion was developed. This score may improve risk stratification but needs to be confirmed in larger studies.

  8. Framingham Risk Score for Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population-Based Study from Southern Europe

    PubMed Central

    Artigao-Rodenas, Luis M.; Carbayo-Herencia, Julio A.; Divisón-Garrote, Juan A.; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F.; Massó-Orozco, Javier; Simarro-Rueda, Marta; Molina-Escribano, Francisca; Sanchis, Carlos; Carrión-Valero, Lucinio; López de Coca, Enrique; Caldevilla, David; López-Abril, Juan; Carratalá-Munuera, Concepción; Lopez-Pineda, Adriana

    2013-01-01

    Background The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity. Methods The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated. Results The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001). Conclusions The results support the proposal for “reclassification” of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe. PMID:24039972

  9. Physical activity assessed with three different methods and the Framingham Risk Score on 10-year coronary heart disease risk

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Physical activity (PA) protects against coronary heart disease (CHD) by favorably altering several CHD risk factors. In order to best understand the true nature of the relationship between PA and CHD, the impact different PA assessment methods have on the relationships must first be clarified. The p...

  10. A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

    PubMed

    Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

    2013-03-15

    Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris.

  11. A Genetic Risk Score for Thyroid Peroxidase Antibodies Associates With Clinical Thyroid Disease in Community-Based Populations

    PubMed Central

    Schultheiss, Ulla T.; Teumer, Alexander; Medici, Marco; Li, Yong; Daya, Natalie; Chaker, Layal; Homuth, Georg; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Nauck, Matthias; Hofman, Albert; Selvin, Elizabeth; Völzke, Henry; Peeters, Robin P.

    2015-01-01

    Context: Antibodies against thyroid peroxidase (TPOAbs) are detected in 90% of all patients with Hashimoto thyroiditis, the most common cause of hypothyroidism. Hypothyroidism is associated with a range of adverse outcomes. The current knowledge of its genetic underpinnings is limited. Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify novel genetic variants associated with TPOAb concentrations and positivity using genome-wide association data and to characterize their association with thyroid function and disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: We studied European ancestry participants of 3 independent prospective population-based studies: Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities study (n = 7524), Study of Health in Pomerania (n = 3803), and Study of Health in Pomerania-TREND (n = 887). Exposure: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), individually and combined into a genetic risk score (GRS), were examined. Main Outcomes: The main outcomes were TPOAb concentrations and positivity, thyroid hormone concentrations (TSH, free T4), and clinical thyroid diseases (subclinical and overt hypothyroidism and goiter). Results: Significantly associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (P < 5 · 10−8) mapped into 4 genomic regions not previously implicated for TPOAbs (RERE, extended HLA region) and into 5 previously described loci. A higher Genetic Risk Score (GRS) based on these 9 SNPs showed strong and graded associations with higher TPOAb, TSH, and lower free T4 concentrations (P < .001). Compared with individuals in the lowest GRS quartile, those in the highest quartile had 1.80-fold higher odds of subclinical hypothyroidism (95% confidence interval, 1.27–2.55) and 1.89-fold higher odds of overt hypothyroidism (95% confidence interval, 1.24–2.87). Conclusion: The identification of 4 novel genetic loci associated with TPOAb concentrations and positivity gives further insight into the genetic underpinnings of hypothyroidism. A GRS showed strong and graded associations

  12. Genetic predisposition to coronary heart disease and stroke using an additive genetic risk score: a population-based study in Greece

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Objective: To determine the extent to which the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) increases in relation to a genetic risk score (GRS) that additively integrates the influence of high-risk alleles in nine documented single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for CHD, and to examine whether t...

  13. Effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: protocol for an overview of systematic reviews

    PubMed Central

    Studzin´ski, Krzysztof; Tomasik, Tomasz; Krzyszton´, Janusz; Józ´wiak, Jacek; Windak, Adam

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Major clinical practice guidelines recommend assessing risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using absolute/global/total CVD risk scores. However, the effectiveness of using them in clinical practice, despite publication of numerous randomised controlled trials (RCTs), is still poorly understood. To summarise and analyse current knowledge in this field, we will carry out an overview of existing systematic reviews (SRs). The objective of this overview will be to assess the effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD compared with standard care. Methods and analysis We will include SRs and meta-analyses which take into account RCTs and quasi-RCTs investigating the effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD. SRs will be retrieved from 4 bibliographical databases and reference lists of identified reviews. Additionally, the PROSPERO database will be searched for unpublished, ongoing or recently completed SRs. 2 reviewers will assess the SRs independently for eligibility and bias. The data will be extracted to a special form. Any disagreement will be resolved by discussion. In case of lack of consensus, a third author will arbitrate. The overview of SRs will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval is not required for overview of SRs. We will summarise evidence concerning whether use of the absolute/global/total CVD risk scoring tools in primary prevention of CVD is effective and supported with scientific data or not. If we face unsatisfactory confirmation, we will highlight a need for further research and advice on how to plan such a study. We will submit the results of our study for peer-review publication in a journal indexed in the international bibliographic database of biomedical information. PMID:28274967

  14. The Effect of a Physiological Evaluation Program on Coronary Heart Disease Risk Scores for Sedentary Individuals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finkenberg, Mel; And Others

    The purpose of this study was to compare the coronary heart disease (CHD) probability estimates of a group of sedentary males involved in an exercise stress test program from 1968 through 1974 with those of a comparison group of sedentary males not involved in the program. The program was designed to evaluate cardiopulmonary function and improve…

  15. Genetic assessment of age-associated Alzheimer disease risk: Development and validation of a polygenic hazard score

    PubMed Central

    Cupples, L. Adrienne; Thompson, Wesley K.; Besser, Lilah; Kukull, Walter A.; Holland, Dominic; Chen, Chi-Hua; Brewer, James B.; Karow, David S.; Kauppi, Karolina; Bonham, Luke W.; Rosen, Howard J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Dillon, William P.; Wilson, David M.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret; Haines, Jonathan L.; Farrer, Lindsay A.; Mayeux, Richard; Hardy, John; Goate, Alison M.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Andreassen, Ole A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Identifying individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of utmost importance. Although genetic studies have identified AD-associated SNPs in APOE and other genes, genetic information has not been integrated into an epidemiological framework for risk prediction. Methods and findings Using genotype data from 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP Stage 1), we identified AD-associated SNPs (at p < 10−5). We then integrated these AD-associated SNPs into a Cox proportional hazard model using genotype data from a subset of 6,409 AD patients and 9,386 older controls from Phase 1 of the Alzheimer’s Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC), providing a polygenic hazard score (PHS) for each participant. By combining population-based incidence rates and the genotype-derived PHS for each individual, we derived estimates of instantaneous risk for developing AD, based on genotype and age, and tested replication in multiple independent cohorts (ADGC Phase 2, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer’s Disease Center [NIA ADC], and Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], total n = 20,680). Within the ADGC Phase 1 cohort, individuals in the highest PHS quartile developed AD at a considerably lower age and had the highest yearly AD incidence rate. Among APOE ε3/3 individuals, the PHS modified expected age of AD onset by more than 10 y between the lowest and highest deciles (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% CI 2.62–4.24, p = 1.0 × 10−22). In independent cohorts, the PHS strongly predicted empirical age of AD onset (ADGC Phase 2, r = 0.90, p = 1.1 × 10−26) and longitudinal progression from normal aging to AD (NIA ADC, Cochran–Armitage trend test, p = 1.5 × 10−10), and was associated with neuropathology (NIA ADC, Braak stage of neurofibrillary tangles, p = 3.9 × 10−6, and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease score for neuritic plaques, p = 6.8 × 10−6) and

  16. External Validation of the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical Score for Prediction of Disease Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy

    PubMed Central

    Öztürk, Erdem; Güven, Eşref Oğuz; Başar, Halil

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The cancer of the prostate risk assessment (CAPRA-S) postsurgical score predicts recurrence, metastasis, and cancer-specific survival after radical prostatectomy (RP). We evaluated the relation between CAPRA-S score and biochemical recurrence (BCR) in prostate cancer after RP in our clinic. Materials and Methods. This study was performed on 203 patients with prostate carcinoma who underwent open RP and regional lymph node dissection in our clinic between 2008 and 2013. We calculated the CAPRA-S scores including prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at diagnosis, pathology Gleason score, surgical margin, seminal vesicle invasion, extracapsular extension, and lymph node involvement. The patients were divided into 3 risk groups (low, intermediate, and high risk) according to risk scores. Results. Recurrence occurred in 17.8% of the patients (36 patients out of 203 patients) with a median of 11.7-month follow-up. The average recurrence-free survival time is 44.6 months. Surgical margin invasion and seminal vesicle invasion significantly correlated with BCR especially in high risk group (11 and 13 of 15 patients, p < 0.05, resp.). Conclusion. CAPRA-S score can be easily calculated and it is useful in clinical practice in order to timely propose adjuvant therapies after surgery. PMID:27833937

  17. The Clinical Performance of an Office-Based Risk Scoring System for Fatal Cardiovascular Diseases in North-East of Iran

    PubMed Central

    Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Malekzadeh, Reza; Poustchi, Hossein; Sharafkhah, Maryam; Ghodsi, Saeed; Malekzadeh, Fatemeh; Etemadi, Arash; Pourshams, Akram; Pharoah, Paul D.; Abnet, Christian C.; Brennan, Paul; Boffetta, Paolo; Dawsey, Sanford M.; Kamangar, Farin

    2015-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are becoming major causes of death in developing countries. Risk scoring systems for CVD are needed to prioritize allocation of limited resources. Most of these risk score algorithms have been based on a long array of risk factors including blood markers of lipids. However, risk scoring systems that solely use office-based data, not including laboratory markers, may be advantageous. In the current analysis, we validated the office-based Framingham risk scoring system in Iran. Methods The study used data from the Golestan Cohort in North-East of Iran. The following risk factors were used in the development of the risk scoring method: sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, current smoking, and diabetes. Cardiovascular risk functions for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal CVDs were developed. Results A total of 46,674 participants free of CVD at baseline were included. Predictive value of estimated risks was examined. The resulting Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.762-0.787) in all participants, 0.772 (95% CI: 0.753-0.791) in women, and 0.763 (95% CI: 0.747-0.779) in men. AUC was higher in urban areas (0.790, 95% CI: 0.766-0.815). The predicted and observed risks of fatal CVD were similar in women. However, in men, predicted probabilities were higher than observed. Conclusion The AUC in the current study is comparable to results of previous studies while lipid profile was replaced by body mass index to develop an office-based scoring system. This scoring algorithm is capable of discriminating individuals at high risk versus low risk of fatal CVD. PMID:26011607

  18. A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies

    PubMed Central

    Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A.; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S.; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C.M.; Pencina, Michael J.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Boerwinkle, Eric

    2013-01-01

    Objective Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). Methods SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. Results The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ= 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004–0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10–1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02–1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Conclusion Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. PMID:22789513

  19. Risk of Ovarian Cancer Relapse Score

    PubMed Central

    Rizzuto, Ivana; Stavraka, Chara; Chatterjee, Jayanta; Borley, Jane; Hopkins, Thomas Glass; Gabra, Hani; Ghaem-Maghami, Sadaf; Huson, Les; Blagden, Sarah P.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to construct a prognostic index that predicts risk of relapse in women who have completed first-line treatment for ovarian cancer (OC). Methods A database of OC cases from 2000 to 2010 was interrogated for International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, grade and histological subtype of cancer, preoperative and posttreatment CA-125 level, presence or absence of residual disease after cytoreductive surgery and on postchemotherapy computed tomography scan, and time to progression and death. The strongest predictors of relapse were included into an algorithm, the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Relapse (ROVAR) score. Results Three hundred fifty-four cases of OC were analyzed to generate the ROVAR score. Factors selected were preoperative serum CA-125, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and grade of cancer, and presence of residual disease at posttreatment computed tomography scan. In the validation data set, the ROVAR score had a sensitivity and specificity of 94% and 61%, respectively. The concordance index for the validation data set was 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.96). The score allows patient stratification into low (<0.33), intermediate (0.34–0.67), and high (>0.67) probability of relapse. Conclusions The ROVAR score stratifies patients according to their risk of relapse following first-line treatment for OC. This can broadly facilitate the appropriate tailoring of posttreatment care and support. PMID:25647256

  20. Metabolic syndrome and dietary components are associated with coronary artery disease risk score in free-living adults: a cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. Objective To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. Methods 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 ± 9.4 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC), body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m2) and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m2). Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS) was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001) criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. Results For a sample with a BMI 28.5 ± 5.0 kg/m2 the association with lower risk (<10% CAD) were lower age (<60 years old), and plasma values of uric acid. The presence of MS within low, intermediary, and high CAD risk categories was 30.8%, 55.5%, and 69.8%, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with CAD risk score was MS and uric acid, and the protective factors were recommended intake of saturated fat and fiber and muscle mass index. Conclusion Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score. PMID:21554698

  1. Cardiovascular disease risk prediction by the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score among HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Hemphill, Linda C.; Palai, Tommy; Nkele, Isaac; Bennett, Kara; Lockman, Shahin; Triant, Virginia A.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives HIV-infected patients are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, general population CVD risk prediction equations that identify HIV-infected patients at elevated risk have not been widely assessed in sub-Saharan African (SSA). Methods HIV-infected adults from 30–50 years of age with documented viral suppression were enrolled into a cross-sectional study in Gaborone, Botswana. Participants were screened for CVD risk factors. Bilateral carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was measured and 10-year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease was calculated using the Pooled Cohorts Equation for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and the 2008 Framingham Risk Score (FRS) (National Cholesterol Education Program III–NCEP III). ASCVD ≥7.5%, FRS ≥10%, and cIMT≥75th percentile were considered elevated risk for CVD. Agreement in classification of participants as high-risk for CVD by cIMT and FRS or ASCVD risk score was assessed using McNemar`s Test. The optimal cIMT cut off-point that matched ASCVD predicted risk of ≥7.5% was assessed using Youden’s J index. Results Among 208 HIV-infected patients (female: 55%, mean age 38 years), 78 (38%) met criteria for ASCVD calculation versus 130 (62%) who did not meet the criteria. ASCVD classified more participants as having elevated CVD risk than FRS (14.1% versus 2.6%, McNemar’s exact test p = 0.01), while also classifying similar proportion of participants as having elevated CVD like cIMT (14.1% versus 19.2%, McNemar’s exact test p = 0.34). Youden’s J calculated the optimal cut point at the 81st percentile for cIMT to correspond to an ASCVD score ≥7.5% (sensitivity = 72.7% and specificity = 88.1% with area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic [AUC] of 0.82, 95% Mann-Whitney CI: 0.66–0.99). Conclusion While the ASCVD risk score classified more patients at elevated CVD risk than FRS, ASCVD score classified similar proportion of patients as high risk when compared with

  2. Combination of High Ankle–Brachial Index and Hard Coronary Heart Disease Framingham Risk Score in Predicting the Risk of Ischemic Stroke in General Population

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Tong; Kong, Minyi; Chen, Renhua; Liu, Yu; Chen, Jianping; Wang, Zhiyu; Wang, Jingfeng; Huang, Hui

    2014-01-01

    Our previous study showed that the patients with more metabolic risk factors had higher risk of high ankle–brachial index (ABI), but the relationship between high ABI and the risk of severe cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is still under debate. This study aims to evaluate this association in the general population. 1486 subjects of South China were recruited in the study. 61 subjects were defined as high ABI group (ABI≥1.3) and 65 subjects were randomly selected as normal ABI group (0.9disease (HCHD) Framingham Risk Score (FRS) were compared between two groups. The results showed that the 10-year HCHD FRS of high ABI group was significantly higher than normal ABI group (7.87±6.11 vs. 3.98±2.90%, P<0.001). There was a positive correlation between ABI value and HCHD FRS in overweight participants (R = 0.576, P<0.01). The prevalence of ischemic stroke was higher in high ABI group than normal ABI group (21.3% vs. 6.2%, P<0.05), and it was higher in participants with HCHD FRS≥6% than those with HCHD FRS<6% (19.1% vs. 6.9%, P<0.05). Moreover, the prevalence of ischemic stroke was higher in participants with high ABI and HCHD FRS≥6% than those with normal ABI and HCHD FRS<6% (26.7% vs. 4.1%, P<0.05). BMI, hypertension, hsCRP and smoking were proved to be the independent factors and effective predictors for high ABI (P<0.05). In conclusion, high ABI combined with high HCHD FRS should be a potential predictor of ischemic stroke in the general population of South China. PMID:25198106

  3. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  4. Does the routine use of global coronary heart disease risk scores translate into clinical benefits or harms? A systematic review of the literature

    PubMed Central

    Sheridan, Stacey L; Crespo, Eric

    2008-01-01

    Background Guidelines now recommend routine assessment of global coronary heart disease (CHD) risk scores. We performed a systematic review to assess whether global CHD risk scores result in clinical benefits or harms. Methods We searched MEDLINE (1966 through June 13, 2007) for articles relevant to our review. Using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, we included studies of any design that provided physicians with global risk scores or allowed them to calculate scores themselves, and then measured clinical benefits and/or harms. Two reviewers reviewed potentially relevant studies for inclusion and resolved disagreement by consensus. Data from each article was then abstracted into an evidence table by one reviewer and the quality of evidence was assessed independently by two reviewers. Results 11 studies met criteria for inclusion in our review. Six studies addressed clinical benefits and 5 addressed clinical harms. Six studies were rated as "fair" quality and the others were deemed "methodologically limited". Two fair quality studies showed that physician knowledge of global CHD risk is associated with increased prescription of cardiovascular drugs in high risk (but not all) patients. Two additional fair quality studies showed no effect on their primary outcomes, but one was underpowered and the other focused on prescribing of lifestyle changes, rather than drugs whose prescribing might be expected to be targeted by risk level. One of these aforementioned studies showed improved blood pressure in high-risk patients, but no improvement in the proportion of patients at high risk, perhaps due to the high proportion of participants with baseline risks significantly exceeding the risk threshold. Two fair quality studies found no evidence of harm from patient knowledge of global risk scores when they were accompanied by counseling, and optional or scheduled follow-up. Other studies were too methodologically limited to draw conclusions. Conclusion Our review

  5. Relation of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and Framingham Risk Score to flow-mediated dilation in patients with cardiometabolic risk factors.

    PubMed

    Pastori, Daniele; Loffredo, Lorenzo; Perri, Ludovica; Baratta, Francesco; Scardella, Laura; Polimeni, Licia; Pani, Arianna; Brancorsini, Monica; Albanese, Fabiana; Catasca, Elisa; Del Ben, Maria; Violi, Francesco; Angelico, Francesco

    2015-05-15

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has a high prevalence in the general population. Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is a surrogated marker of early atherosclerosis. Few data investigating the relation between FMD, NAFLD, and cardiovascular (CV) risk are available. We recruited 367 consecutive outpatients with cardiometabolic risk factors who underwent ultrasound scanning for liver steatosis and FMD. Mean age was 54.2 ± 12.2 years, and 37% were women. NAFLD was present in 281 patients (77%). Median FMD was 5.1%. FMD was significantly reduced in patients with NAFLD (p <0.001), diabetes (p = 0.001), history of coronary heart disease (p = 0.034), and metabolic syndrome (p = 0.050) and in those taking antihypertensive drugs (p = 0.022). Women disclosed greater FMD than males (p = 0.033). Moreover, FMD inversely correlated with age (Spearman rank correlation test [Rs], -0.171; p = 0.001), waist circumference (Rs, -0.127; p = 0.016), fasting blood glucose (Rs, -0.204; p <0.001), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (Rs, -0.064; p = 0.234). At multivariate regression analysis, fasting blood glucose (β, -0.148; p = 0.008), age (β, -0.158; p = 0.005), and the presence of NAFLD (β, -0.132; p = 0.016) inversely correlated with FMD, whereas female gender predicted a better FMD (β, 0.125; p = 0.022). FMD and Framingham Risk Score (FRS) were inversely correlated (Rs, -0.183; p <0.001). After dividing patients into low (FRS <10; FMD, 5.5% [3.1% to 8.9%]), intermediate (FRS 10 to 20; FMD, 4.9% [2.7% to 7.5%]), and high (FRS >20; FMD, 3.3% [1.7% to 4.5%]) risk, FMD significantly decreased across risk classes of FRS (p = 0.003). At multivariate regression analysis, both FRS (β, -0.129; p = 0.016) and NAFLD (β, -0.218; p <0.001) were variables independently associated with FMD. In conclusion, the presence of NAFLD and FRS inversely correlated with FMD.

  6. Pathway-specific polygenic risk scores as predictors of β-amyloid deposition and cognitive function in a sample at increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease

    PubMed Central

    Darst, Burcu F.; Koscik, Rebecca L.; Racine, Annie M.; Oh, Jennifer M.; Krause, Rachel A.; Carlsson, Cynthia M.; Zetterberg, Henrik; Blennow, Kaj; Christian, Bradley T.; Bendlin, Barbara B.; Okonkwo, Ozioma C.; Hogan, Kirk J.; Hermann, Bruce P.; Sager, Mark A.; Asthana, Sanjay; Johnson, Sterling C.; Engelman, Corinne D.

    2016-01-01

    Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been used to combine the effects of variants with small effects identified by genome-wide association studies. We explore the potential for using pathway-specific PRSs as predictors of early changes in Alzheimer’s disease (AD)-related biomarkers and cognitive function. Participants were from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer’s Prevention, a longitudinal study of adults who were cognitively asymptomatic at enrollment and enriched for a parental history of AD. Using genes associated with AD in the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project’s meta-analysis, we identified clusters of genes that grouped into pathways involved in β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition and neurodegeneration: Aβ clearance, cholesterol metabolism, and immune response. Weighted pathway-specific and overall PRSs were developed and compared to APOE alone. Mixed models were used to assess whether each PRS was associated with cognition in 1,200 individuals, cerebral Aβ deposition measured using amyloid ligand (Pittsburgh compound B) positron emission imaging (PET) in 168 individuals, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Aβ deposition, neurodegeneration, and tau pathology in 111 individuals, with replication performed in an independent sample. We found that PRSs including APOE appeared to be driven by the inclusion of APOE, suggesting that the pathway-specific PRSs used here were not more predictive than an overall PRS or APOE alone. However, pathway-specific PRSs could prove to be useful as more knowledge is gained on the genetic variants involved in specific biological pathways of AD. PMID:27662287

  7. Comparison of self-perceived cardiovascular disease risk among smokers with Framingham and PROCAM scores: a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    Desgraz, Benoît; Collet, Tinh-Hai; Rodondi, Nicolas; Cornuz, Jacques; Clair, Carole

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Previous studies suggest that smokers have a misperception of their 10-year cardiovascular risk. We aimed to compare 10-year cardiovascular risk self-perception and calculated risk among smokers willing to quit and assess the determinants of a possible misperception. Design Cross-sectional secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of smoking cessation. Participants 514 participants, mean age 51.1 years, 46% women, 98% Caucasian. Eligible participants were regular smokers, aged between 40 and 70 years, with a consumption of at least 10 cigarettes per day for at least a year. None of them had experienced cardiovascular disease before. Exclusion criteria comprised a history of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, carotid atherosclerosis or cardiac arrhythmia. Participants with renal or liver failure, psychiatric disorders, substance and alcohol abuse and with smoking cessation therapies were excluded. Interventions Participants were asked to estimate their 10-year cardiovascular risk using a 3-item scale corresponding to high-risk, moderate-risk and low-risk categories. We compared their risk perception with Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular Munster Study (PROCAM) scores. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models to determine characteristics of participants who underestimate their risk versus those who correctly estimate or overestimate it. Results Between 38% and 42% of smokers correctly perceived their 10-year cardiovascular risk, and 39–50% overestimated their 10-year cardiovascular risk while 12–19% underestimated it compared with their calculated 10-year cardiovascular risk depending on the score used. Underestimation of 10-year cardiovascular risk was associated with male gender (OR 8.16; CI 3.83 to 17.36), older age (OR 1.06; CI 1.02 to 1.09), and the presence of hyperlipidaemia (OR 2.71; CI 1.47 to 5.01) and diabetes mellitus

  8. Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

    PubMed Central

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D.; Ross, Michael; Law, Matthew; Reiss, Peter; Kirk, Ole; Smith, Colette; Wentworth, Deborah; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Fux, Christoph A.; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Phillipe; Johnson, Margaret A.; Ryom, Lene

    2015-01-01

    Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk

  9. A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

    2016-01-01

    Objective Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. Methods 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. Results There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75–0.88). Interpretations The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies. PMID:27802296

  10. Coronary Risk Factor Scoring as a Guide for Counseling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fleck, R. L.

    1971-01-01

    A risk factor scoring system for early detection, possible prediction, and counseling to coronary heart disease patients is discussed. Scoring data include dynamic EKG, cholesterol levels, triglycerine content, total lipid level, total phospolipid levels, and electrophoretic patterns. Results indicate such a system is effective in identifying high risk subjects, but that the ability to predict exceeds the ability to prevent heart disease or its complications.

  11. Clinical Utility of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Gene Score in UK Healthy Middle Aged Men and in the Pakistani Population

    PubMed Central

    Beaney, Katherine E.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Ullah Shahid, Saleem; Ahmed, Waqas; Qamar, Raheel; Drenos, Fotios; Crockard, Martin A.; Humphries, Steve E.

    2015-01-01

    Background Numerous risk prediction algorithms based on conventional risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) are available but provide only modest discrimination. The inclusion of genetic information may improve clinical utility. Methods We tested the use of two gene scores (GS) in the prospective second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII) of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases), and Pakistani case-control studies from Islamabad/Rawalpindi (321 cases/228 controls) and Lahore (414 cases/219 controls). The 19-SNP GS included SNPs in loci identified by GWAS and candidate gene studies, while the 13-SNP GS only included SNPs in loci identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium. Results In NPHSII, the mean of both gene scores was higher in those who went on to develop CHD over 13.5 years of follow-up (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=7x10-3). In combination with the Framingham algorithm the GSs appeared to show improvement in discrimination (increase in area under the ROC curve, 19-SNP p=0.48, 13-SNP p=0.82) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI), 19-SNP p=0.28, 13-SNP p=0.42) compared to the Framingham algorithm alone, but these were not statistically significant. When considering only individuals who moved up a risk category with inclusion of the GS, the improvement in risk classification was statistically significant (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=0.04). In the Pakistani samples, risk allele frequencies were significantly lower compared to NPHSII for 13/19 SNPs. In the Islamabad study, the mean gene score was higher in cases than controls only for the 13-SNP GS (2.24 v 2.34, p=0.04). There was no association with CHD and either score in the Lahore study. Conclusion The performance of both GSs showed potential clinical utility in European men but much less utility in subjects from Pakistan, suggesting that a different set of risk loci or SNPs may be required for risk prediction in the South Asian population. PMID:26133560

  12. Parkinson’s Disease Is Related to an Increased Risk of Ischemic Stroke—A Population-Based Propensity Score-Matched Follow-Up Study

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Ya-Ping; Chen, Li-Sheng; Yen, Ming-Fang; Fann, Ching-Yuan; Chiu, Yueh-Hsia; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Pan, Shin-Liang

    2013-01-01

    Objective The risk of stroke in patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) remains controversial. The purpose of this population-based propensity score-matched longitudinal follow-up study was to determine whether there is an increased risk of ischemic stroke after PD. Methods We used a logistic regression model that includes age, sex, pre-existing comorbidities and socioeconomic status as covariates to compute the propensity score. A total of 2204 patients with at least two ambulatory visits with the principal diagnosis of PD in 2001 was enrolled in the PD group. The non- PD group consisted of 2204, propensity score-matched subjects without PD. The ischemic stroke-free survival rates of the two groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Stratified Cox proportional hazard regression with patients matched on propensity score was used to estimate the effect of PD on the occurrence of ischemic stroke. Results During the three-year follow-up period, 328 subjects in the PD group and 156 subjects in the non-PD group developed ischemic stroke. The ischemic stroke-free survival rate of the PD group was significantly lower than that of the non-PD group (P<0.0001). The hazard ratio (HR) of stroke for the PD group was 2.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92 to 2.93, P<0.0001) compared to the non- PD group. Conclusions This study shows a significantly increased risk of ischemic stroke in PD patients. Further studies are required to investigate the underlying mechanism. PMID:24023710

  13. A Comparative Assessment of Non-Laboratory-Based versus Commonly Used Laboratory-Based Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores in the NHANES III Population

    PubMed Central

    Pandya, Ankur; Weinstein, Milton C.; Gaziano, Thomas A.

    2011-01-01

    Background National and international primary CVD risk screening guidelines focus on using total CVD risk scores. Recently, we developed a non-laboratory-based CVD risk score (inputs: age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, body-mass index), which can assess risk faster and at lower costs compared to laboratory-based scores (inputs include cholesterol values). We aimed to assess the exchangeability of the non-laboratory-based risk score to four commonly used laboratory-based scores (Framingham CVD [2008, 1991 versions], and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE] for low and high risk settings) in an external validation population. Methods and Findings Analyses were based on individual-level, score-specific rankings of risk for adults in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) aged 25–74 years, without history of CVD or cancer (n = 5,999). Risk characterization agreement was based on overlap in dichotomous risk characterization (thresholds of 10-year risk >10–20%) and Spearman rank correlation. Risk discrimination was assessed using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (10-year CVD death outcome). Risk characterization agreement ranged from 91.9–95.7% and 94.2–95.1% with Spearman correlation ranges of 0.957–0.980 and 0.946–0.970 for men and women, respectively. In men, c-statistics for the non-laboratory-based, Framingham (2008, 1991), and SCORE (high, low) functions were 0.782, 0.776, 0.781, 0.785, and 0.785, with p-values for differences relative to the non-laboratory-based score of 0.44, 0.89, 0.68 and 0.65, respectively. In women, the corresponding c-statistics were 0.809, 0.834, 0.821, 0.792, and 0.792, with corresponding p-values of 0.04, 0.34, 0.11 and 0.09, respectively. Conclusions Every score discriminated risk of CVD death well, and there was high agreement in risk characterization between non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk scores, which

  14. Dynamic TIMI Risk Score for STEMI

    PubMed Central

    Amin, Sameer T.; Morrow, David A.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in‐hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. Methods and Results The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT‐TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON‐TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in‐hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C‐statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C‐statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). Conclusions This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1‐year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions. PMID:23525425

  15. Perioperative Anaphylactic Risk Score For Risk-Oriented Premedication

    PubMed Central

    Manfredi, Giacomo; Pezzuto, F.; Balestrini, A.; Lo Schiavo, M.; Montera, M.C.; Pio, A.; Iannelli, M.; Gargano, D.; Bianchi, M.J.; Casale, G.; Galimberti, M.; Triggiani, M.; Piazza, O.

    Basing on the current knowledge, this paper is aimed to review the core characteristics of the most relevant therapeutic agents (steroids and antihistamines), administered to prevent perioperative anaphylaxis. Moreover, the Authors propose the validation of a Global Anaphylactic Risk Score, built up by recording the individual scores related to the most relevant anaphylaxis parameters (i.e. medical history, symptoms and medication for asthma, rhinitis and urticaria etc) and by adding them on all together; the score could be used in the preoperative phase to evaluate the global anaphylactic risk and to prescribe risk-oriented premedication protocols. PMID:24251246

  16. Risk of Pathologic Upgrading or Locally Advanced Disease in Early Prostate Cancer Patients Based on Biopsy Gleason Score and PSA: A Population-Based Study of Modern Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Caster, Joseph M.; Falchook, Aaron D.; Hendrix, Laura H.; Chen, Ronald C.

    2015-06-01

    Purpose: Radiation oncologists rely on available clinical information (biopsy Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen [PSA]) to determine the optimal treatment regimen for each prostate cancer patient. Existing published nomograms correlating clinical to pathologic extent of disease were based on patients treated in the 1980s and 1990s at select academic institutions. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to examine pathologic outcomes (Gleason score and cancer stage) in early prostate cancer patients based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA concentration. Methods and Materials: This analysis included 25,858 patients whose cancer was diagnosed between 2010 and 2011, with biopsy Gleason scores of 6 to 7 and clinical stage T1 to T2 disease, who underwent radical prostatectomy. In subgroups based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA level, we report the proportion of patients with pathologically advanced disease (positive surgical margin or pT3-T4 disease) or whose Gleason score was upgraded. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with pathologic outcomes. Results: For patients with biopsy Gleason score 6 cancers, 84% of those with PSA <10 ng/mL had surgical T2 disease with negative margins; this decreased to 61% in patients with PSA of 20 to 29.9 ng/mL. Gleason score upgrading was seen in 43% (PSA: <10 ng/mL) to 61% (PSA: 20-29.9 ng/mL) of biopsy Gleason 6 patients. Patients with biopsy Gleason 7 cancers had a one-third (Gleason 3 + 4; PSA: <10 ng/mL) to two-thirds (Gleason 4 + 3; PSA: 20-29.9 ng/mL) probability of having pathologically advanced disease. Gleason score upgrading was seen in 11% to 19% of patients with biopsy Gleason 4 + 3 cancers. Multivariable analysis showed that higher PSA and older age were associated with Gleason score upgrading and pathologically advanced disease. Conclusions: This is the first population-based study to examine pathologic extent of disease and pathologic Gleason score

  17. Heart disease - risk factors

    MedlinePlus

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  18. Independent effects of age-related changes in waist circumference and BMI z scores in predicting cardiovascular disease risk factors in a prospective cohort of adolescent females

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional data indicate that central adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk, independent of total adiposity. The use of longitudinal data to investigate the relation between changes in fat distribution and the emergence of risk factors is limited. OBJECTIVE: We ...

  19. Assessment of the value of a genetic risk score in improving the estimation of coronary risk

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS ...

  20. Risk scoring for percutaneous coronary intervention: let's do it!

    PubMed Central

    Siotia, A

    2006-01-01

    The recent publication of a robust percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk scoring system should stimulate every interventional cardiologist to incorporate risk adjustment into their everyday practice PMID:16621880

  1. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  2. Genetic Risk Score Modelling for Disease Progression in New-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Patients: Increased Genetic Load of Islet-Expressed and Cytokine-Regulated Candidate Genes Predicts Poorer Glycemic Control

    PubMed Central

    Brorsson, Caroline A.; Nielsen, Lotte B.; Andersen, Marie Louise; Kaur, Simranjeet; Bergholdt, Regine; Hansen, Lars; Mortensen, Henrik B.; Pociot, Flemming; Størling, Joachim; Hvidoere Study Group on Childhood Diabetes

    2016-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 40 type 1 diabetes risk loci. The clinical impact of these loci on β-cell function during disease progression is unknown. We aimed at testing whether a genetic risk score could predict glycemic control and residual β-cell function in type 1 diabetes (T1D). As gene expression may represent an intermediate phenotype between genetic variation and disease, we hypothesized that genes within T1D loci which are expressed in islets and transcriptionally regulated by proinflammatory cytokines would be the best predictors of disease progression. Two-thirds of 46 GWAS candidate genes examined were expressed in human islets, and 11 of these significantly changed expression levels following exposure to proinflammatory cytokines (IL-1β + IFNγ + TNFα) for 48 h. Using the GWAS single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from each locus, we constructed a genetic risk score based on the cumulative number of risk alleles carried in children with newly diagnosed T1D. With each additional risk allele carried, HbA1c levels increased significantly within first year after diagnosis. Network and gene ontology (GO) analyses revealed that several of the 11 candidate genes have overlapping biological functions and interact in a common network. Our results may help predict disease progression in newly diagnosed children with T1D which can be exploited for optimizing treatment. PMID:26904692

  3. Body Mass Index Genetic Risk Score and Endometrial Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Prescott, Jennifer; Setiawan, Veronica W.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Schumacher, Fredrick; Yu, Herbert; Delahanty, Ryan; Bernstein, Leslie; Chanock, Stephen J.; Chen, Chu; Cook, Linda S.; Friedenreich, Christine; Garcia-Closas, Monserrat; Haiman, Christopher A.; Le Marchand, Loic; Liang, Xiaolin; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Lingeng; Magliocco, Anthony M.; Olson, Sara H.; Risch, Harvey A.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ursin, Giske; Yang, Hannah P.; Kraft, Peter; De Vivo, Immaculata

    2015-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified common variants that predispose individuals to a higher body mass index (BMI), an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer. Composite genotype risk scores (GRS) based on the joint effect of published BMI risk loci were used to explore whether endometrial cancer shares a genetic background with obesity. Genotype and risk factor data were available on 3,376 endometrial cancer case and 3,867 control participants of European ancestry from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium GWAS. A BMI GRS was calculated by summing the number of BMI risk alleles at 97 independent loci. For exploratory analyses, additional GRSs were based on subsets of risk loci within putative etiologic BMI pathways. The BMI GRS was statistically significantly associated with endometrial cancer risk (P = 0.002). For every 10 BMI risk alleles a woman had a 13% increased endometrial cancer risk (95% CI: 4%, 22%). However, after adjusting for BMI, the BMI GRS was no longer associated with risk (per 10 BMI risk alleles OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.07; P = 0.78). Heterogeneity by BMI did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.06), and no effect modification was noted by age, GWAS Stage, study design or between studies (P≥0.58). In exploratory analyses, the GRS defined by variants at loci containing monogenic obesity syndrome genes was associated with reduced endometrial cancer risk independent of BMI (per BMI risk allele OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.96; P = 2.1 x 10−5). Possessing a large number of BMI risk alleles does not increase endometrial cancer risk above that conferred by excess body weight among women of European descent. Thus, the GRS based on all current established BMI loci does not provide added value independent of BMI. Future studies are required to validate the unexpected observed relation between monogenic obesity syndrome genetic variants and endometrial cancer risk. PMID:26606540

  4. Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi?

    PubMed

    Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P

    2017-03-01

    Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons.

  5. Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts

    PubMed Central

    de las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994–1995) and S4 (1999–2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000–2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany. PMID:27732641

  6. A risk scoring system for prediction of haemorrhagic stroke.

    PubMed

    Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R

    2005-01-01

    The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy.

  7. Comprehensive coronary risk determination in primary prevention: an imaging and clinical based definition combining computed tomographic coronary artery calcium score and national cholesterol education program risk score.

    PubMed

    Nasir, Khurram; Vasamreddy, Chandra; Blumenthal, Roger S; Rumberger, John A

    2006-06-16

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and a major cause of morbidity. Coronary heart disease (CHD) accounts for nearly half of all CVD deaths. Currently estimation of risk in primary prevention is based on the Framingham risk equations, which inputs traditional risk factors and is helpful in predicting the development of CHD in asymptomatic individuals. However many individuals suffer events in the absence of established risk factors for atherosclerosis and broad based population risk estimations may have little precision when applied to a given individual. To meet the challenge of CHD risk assessment, several tools have been developed to identify atherosclerotic disease in its preclinical stages. This paper aims to incorporate information from coronary artery calcification (CAC) scoring from a computed tomographic "heartscan" (using Electron Beam Tomography (EBT) as the validated prototype) along with current Framingham risk profiling in order to refine risk on an absolute scale by combining imaging and clinical data to affect a more comprehensive calculation of absolute risk in a given individual. For CAC scores above the 75th percentile but <90th percentile, 10 years is added to chronological age, and for CAC scores above the 90th percentile, 20 years is added to current chronological age. Among those in whom a positive CAC score is the norm such as older individuals (men> or =55 years, women> or =65 years) a CAC = 0 will result in an age point score corresponding to the age-group whose median CAC score is zero i.e., 40-44 years for men and 55-59 years for women. The utilization of CAC scores allows the inclusion of sub-clinical disease definition into the context of modifiable risk factors as well as identifies high-risk individuals requiring aggressive treatment.

  8. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores.

    PubMed

    Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E; Schierup, Mikkel H; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L

    2015-10-01

    Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R(2) increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase.

  9. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

    PubMed Central

    Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J.; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K.; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Ripke, Stephan; Neale, Benjamin M.; Corvin, Aiden; Walters, James T.R.; Farh, Kai-How; Holmans, Peter A.; Lee, Phil; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Collier, David A.; Huang, Hailiang; Pers, Tune H.; Agartz, Ingrid; Agerbo, Esben; Albus, Margot; Alexander, Madeline; Amin, Farooq; Bacanu, Silviu A.; Begemann, Martin; Belliveau, Richard A.; Bene, Judit; Bergen, Sarah E.; Bevilacqua, Elizabeth; Bigdeli, Tim B.; Black, Donald W.; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buckner, Randy L.; Byerley, William; Cahn, Wiepke; Cai, Guiqing; Campion, Dominique; Cantor, Rita M.; Carr, Vaughan J.; Carrera, Noa; Catts, Stanley V.; Chambert, Kimberly D.; Chan, Raymond C.K.; Chen, Ronald Y.L.; Chen, Eric Y.H.; Cheng, Wei; Cheung, Eric F.C.; Chong, Siow Ann; Cloninger, C. Robert; Cohen, David; Cohen, Nadine; Cormican, Paul; Craddock, Nick; Crowley, James J.; Curtis, David; Davidson, Michael; Davis, Kenneth L.; Degenhardt, Franziska; Del Favero, Jurgen; DeLisi, Lynn E.; Demontis, Ditte; Dikeos, Dimitris; Dinan, Timothy; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drapeau, Elodie; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Durmishi, Naser; Eichhammer, Peter; Eriksson, Johan; Escott-Price, Valentina; Essioux, Laurent; Fanous, Ayman H.; Farrell, Martilias S.; Frank, Josef; Franke, Lude; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Friedl, Marion; Friedman, Joseph I.; Fromer, Menachem; Genovese, Giulio; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Gershon, Elliot S.; Giegling, Ina; Giusti-Rodrguez, Paola; Godard, Stephanie; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Golimbet, Vera; Gopal, Srihari; Gratten, Jacob; Grove, Jakob; de Haan, Lieuwe; Hammer, Christian; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Mark; Hansen, Thomas; Haroutunian, Vahram; Hartmann, Annette M.; Henskens, Frans A.; Herms, Stefan; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Hoffmann, Per; Hofman, Andrea; Hollegaard, Mads V.; Hougaard, David M.; Ikeda, Masashi; Joa, Inge; Julia, Antonio; Kahn, Rene S.; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Karachanak-Yankova, Sena; Karjalainen, Juha; Kavanagh, David; Keller, Matthew C.; Kelly, Brian J.; Kennedy, James L.; Khrunin, Andrey; Kim, Yunjung; Klovins, Janis; Knowles, James A.; Konte, Bettina; Kucinskas, Vaidutis; Kucinskiene, Zita Ausrele; Kuzelova-Ptackova, Hana; Kahler, Anna K.; Laurent, Claudine; Keong, Jimmy Lee Chee; Lee, S. Hong; Legge, Sophie E.; Lerer, Bernard; Li, Miaoxin; Li, Tao; Liang, Kung-Yee; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Limborska, Svetlana; Loughland, Carmel M.; Lubinski, Jan; Lnnqvist, Jouko; Macek, Milan; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Maher, Brion S.; Maier, Wolfgang; Mallet, Jacques; Marsal, Sara; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarley, Robert W.; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M.; Meier, Sandra; Meijer, Carin J.; Melegh, Bela; Melle, Ingrid; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I.; Metspalu, Andres; Michie, Patricia T.; Milani, Lili; Milanova, Vihra; Mokrab, Younes; Morris, Derek W.; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben B.; Murphy, Kieran C.; Murray, Robin M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Mller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nelis, Mari; Nenadic, Igor; Nertney, Deborah A.; Nestadt, Gerald; Nicodemus, Kristin K.; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Nisenbaum, Laura; Nordin, Annelie; O’Callaghan, Eadbhard; O’Dushlaine, Colm; O’Neill, F. Anthony; Oh, Sang-Yun; Olincy, Ann; Olsen, Line; Van Os, Jim; Pantelis, Christos; Papadimitriou, George N.; Papiol, Sergi; Parkhomenko, Elena; Pato, Michele T.; Paunio, Tiina; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Perkins, Diana O.; Pietilinen, Olli; Pimm, Jonathan; Pocklington, Andrew J.; Powell, John; Price, Alkes; Pulver, Ann E.; Purcell, Shaun M.; Quested, Digby; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Reichenberg, Abraham; Reimers, Mark A.; Richards, Alexander L.; Roffman, Joshua L.; Roussos, Panos; Ruderfer, Douglas M.; Salomaa, Veikko; Sanders, Alan R.; Schall, Ulrich; Schubert, Christian R.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schwab, Sibylle G.; Scolnick, Edward M.; Scott, Rodney J.; Seidman, Larry J.; Shi, Jianxin; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sim, Kang; Slominsky, Petr; Smoller, Jordan W.; So, Hon-Cheong; Spencer, Chris C.A.; Stahl, Eli A.; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stogmann, Elisabeth; Straub, Richard E.; Strengman, Eric; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Subramaniam, Mythily; Suvisaari, Jaana; Svrakic, Dragan M.; Szatkiewicz, Jin P.; Sderman, Erik; Thirumalai, Srinivas; Toncheva, Draga; Tooney, Paul A.; Tosato, Sarah; Veijola, Juha; Waddington, John; Walsh, Dermot; Wang, Dai; Wang, Qiang; Webb, Bradley T.; Weiser, Mark; Wildenauer, Dieter B.; Williams, Nigel M.; Williams, Stephanie; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wolen, Aaron R.; Wong, Emily H.M.; Wormley, Brandon K.; Wu, Jing Qin; Xi, Hualin Simon; Zai, Clement C.; Zheng, Xuebin; Zimprich, Fritz; Wray, Naomi R.; Stefansson, Kari; Visscher, Peter M.; Adolfsson, Rolf; Andreassen, Ole A.; Blackwood, Douglas H.R.; Bramon, Elvira; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Børglum, Anders D.; Cichon, Sven; Darvasi, Ariel; Domenici, Enrico; Ehrenreich, Hannelore; Esko, Tonu; Gejman, Pablo V.; Gill, Michael; Gurling, Hugh; Hultman, Christina M.; Iwata, Nakao; Jablensky, Assen V.; Jonsson, Erik G.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kirov, George; Knight, Jo; Lencz, Todd; Levinson, Douglas F.; Li, Qingqin S.; Liu, Jianjun; Malhotra, Anil K.; McCarroll, Steven A.; McQuillin, Andrew; Moran, Jennifer L.; Mortensen, Preben B.; Mowry, Bryan J.; Nthen, Markus M.; Ophoff, Roel A.; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Pato, Carlos N.; Petryshen, Tracey L.; Posthuma, Danielle; Rietschel, Marcella; Riley, Brien P.; Rujescu, Dan; Sham, Pak C.; Sklar, Pamela; St. Clair, David; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Wendland, Jens R.; Werge, Thomas; Daly, Mark J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; O’Donovan, Michael C.; Kraft, Peter; Hunter, David J.; Adank, Muriel; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Baglietto, Laura; Berndt, Sonja; Blomquist, Carl; Canzian, Federico; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chanock, Stephen J.; Crisponi, Laura; Czene, Kamila; Dahmen, Norbert; Silva, Isabel dos Santos; Easton, Douglas; Eliassen, A. Heather; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Gaudet, Mia M.; Gibson, Lorna; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hall, Per; Hazra, Aditi; Hein, Rebecca; Henderson, Brian E.; Hofman, Albert; Hopper, John L.; Irwanto, Astrid; Johansson, Mattias; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kibriya, Muhammad G.; Lichtner, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Liu, Jianjun; Lund, Eiliv; Makalic, Enes; Meindl, Alfons; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Muranen, Taru A.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Peeters, Petra H.; Peto, Julian; Prentice, Ross L.; Rahman, Nazneen; Sánchez, María José; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Southey, Melissa C.; Tamimi, Rulla; Travis, Ruth; Turnbull, Clare; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang, Zhaoming; Whittemore, Alice S.; Yang, Rose; Zheng, Wei; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E.; Schierup, Mikkel H.; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M.; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L.

    2015-01-01

    Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R2 increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. PMID:26430803

  10. Assessing Level of Agreement for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Categorization Between Coronary Artery Calcium Score and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines and the Potential Impact on Treatment Recommendations.

    PubMed

    Isma'eel, Hussain; Min, David; Al-Shaar, Laila; Hachamovitch, Rory; Halliburton, Sandra; Gentry, James; Griffin, Brian; Schoenhagen, Paul; Phelan, Dermot

    2016-11-15

    The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cardiovascular prevention guidelines use a new pooled cohort equation (PCE) to predict 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events which form the basis of treatment recommendations. Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) has been proposed as a means to assess atherosclerotic risk. We sought to study the level of agreement in predicted ASCVD risk by CACS and PCE-calculated models and the potential impact on therapy of additional CACS testing. We studied 687 treatment naive, consecutive patients (mean age 53.5 years, 72% men) who had a CACS study at our institution. Clinical and imaging data were recorded. ASCVD risk was calculated using the published PCE-based algorithm. CACS-based risk was categorized by previously published recommendations. Risk stratification comparisons were made and level of agreement calculated. In the cohort, mean ASCVD PCE-calculated risk was 5.3 ± 5.2% and mean CACS was 80 ± 302 Agatston units (AU). Of the intermediate PCE-calculated risk (5% to <7.5%) cohort, 85% had CACS <100 AU. Of the cohort categorized as reasonable to treat per the ASCVD prevention guidelines, 40% had a CACS of 0 AU and an additional 44% had CACS >0 but <100 AU. The level of agreement between the new PCE model of ASCVD risk and demonstrable coronary artery calcium is low. CACS testing may be most beneficial in those with an intermediate risk of ASCVD (PCE-calculated risk of 5% to <7.5%) where, in approximately half of patients, CACS testing significantly refined risk assessment primarily into a very low-risk category.

  11. Integrating genetics and social science: genetic risk scores.

    PubMed

    Belsky, Daniel W; Israel, Salomon

    2014-01-01

    The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest-hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry.

  12. Integrating Genetics and Social Science: Genetic Risk Scores

    PubMed Central

    Belsky, Daniel W.; Israel, Salomon

    2014-01-01

    The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public-use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry. PMID:25343363

  13. The ORBIT bleeding score: a simple bedside score to assess bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    O'Brien, Emily C.; Simon, DaJuanicia N.; Thomas, Laine E.; Hylek, Elaine M.; Gersh, Bernard J.; Ansell, Jack E.; Kowey, Peter R.; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; Chang, Paul; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Pencina, Michael J.; Piccini, Jonathan P.; Peterson, Eric D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often influenced by assessment of bleeding risk. However, existing bleeding risk scores have limitations. Objectives We sought to develop and validate a novel bleeding risk score using routinely available clinical information to predict major bleeding in a large, community-based AF population. Methods We analysed data from Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF), a prospective registry that enrolled incident and prevalent AF patients at 176 US sites. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we identified factors independently associated with major bleeding among patients taking oral anticoagulation (OAC) over a median follow-up of 2 years (interquartile range = 1.6–2.5). We also created a numerical bedside risk score that included the five most predictive risk factors weighted according to their strength of association with major bleeding. The predictive performance of the full model, the simple five-item score, and two existing risk scores (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile INR, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly, HAS-BLED, and anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation, ATRIA) were then assessed in both the ORBIT-AF cohort and a separate clinical trial population, Rivaroxaban Once-daily oral direct factor Xa inhibition compared with vitamin K antagonism for prevention of stroke and embolism trial in atrial fibrillation (ROCKET-AF). Results Among 7411 ORBIT-AF patients taking OAC, the rate of major bleeding was 4.0/100 person-years. The full continuous model (12 variables) and five-factor ORBIT risk score (older age [75+ years], reduced haemoglobin/haematocrit/history of anaemia, bleeding history, insufficient kidney function, and treatment with antiplatelet) both had good ability to identify those who bled vs. not (C-index 0.69 and 0.67, respectively). These scores both had

  14. Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores.

    PubMed

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond; Schrimpf, Paul

    2016-04-01

    "Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of "perfect" risk scoring under a given contract.

  15. Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

    PubMed Central

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond

    2016-01-01

    “Big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract. PMID:27429712

  16. Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Mathur, Rohini; Dent, Tom; Meads, Catherine; Greenhalgh, Trisha

    2011-01-01

    Objective To evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction Data were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes. Results 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an

  17. Coronary artery calcium scoring is a better predictor of cardiac risk in subclinical hypothyroidism patients with low-risk Framingham score

    PubMed Central

    Verma, Rajesh; Verma, Ashish; Gupta, Piyush; Agrawal, N. K.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Overt hypothyroidism accelerates the cardiovascular disease. Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH), being considered as a preclinical state, impacts on cardiovascular status is not clear. Aims: This study was aimed at assessing cardiac risk stratification by Framingham risk scoring (FRS) and coronary coronary artery calcium score (CACS) by noncontrast cardiac computed tomography in SCH. Study Design: Observational study. Subjects and Methods: We enrolled thirty treatment-naive SCH patients (aged 30–60 years with no serious concurrent medical conditions), thirty euthyroid (age, sex, and body mass index-matched) controls, and ten healthy controls. All cases were evaluated for coronary artery calcium scoring and Framingham risk score. Statistical Analysis: Qualitative data were analyzed using the Chi-square test. In addition, demographics and CACS are summarized graphically or in a table. Results: SCH cases had higher thyroglobulin, while there was a trend toward an increase in total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), very LDL, and decrease in HDL levels. All participants had low-risk FRS (10-year FRS < 10%). The mean CACS in SCH was significantly higher than simple obese and healthy controls (47.17 vs. 2.67 vs. 0.00). Conclusion: This study suggests that SCH is an independent risk factor for coronary artery disease in apparently healthy controls. The risk of occult coronary artery disease is increased in SCH cases. PMID:27867875

  18. Association of Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth Risk Score and 15-year Change in Risk Score with Carotid Artery Intima-Media Thickness in Young Adults (From the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study)

    PubMed Central

    McMahan, C. Alex; Gidding, Samuel S.; Viikari, Jorma S. A.; Juonala, Markus; Kähönen, Mika; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Jokinen, Eero; Taittonen, Leena; Pietikäinen, Matti; McGill, Henry C.; Raitakari, Olli T.

    2009-01-01

    The Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) study of autopsied 15-34 year old young people developed a risk score using the coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors (sex, age, serum lipoprotein concentrations, smoking, hypertension, obesity, and hyperglycemia) to estimate the probability of advanced atherosclerotic lesions in the coronary arteries. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study measured CHD risk factors in a population-based cohort in 1986 and 2001 and measured carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) with ultrasound in 2001. We computed the PDAY risk score from risk factors measured in 1279 subjects who were 12-24 years old in 1986 and 27-39 years in 2001. The PDAY risk score early in life (1986) and the change in risk score over the following 15 years (between 1986 and 2001) were independent predictors of carotid artery IMT; the multiplicative effect of 1 point in the 1986 risk score was 1.008 (95% CI 1.005-1.012) and the multiplicative effect of a 1 point increase between 1986 and 2001 risk scores was 1.003 (95% CI 1.001-1.006) (multiplicative effect 0.997 for 1 point decrease). In conclusion, the change over time (either a decrease or an increase) in the risk score during adolescence and young adulthood as well as the risk score early in life are important predictors of atherosclerosis. PMID:17884375

  19. Development and evaluation of a genetic risk score for obesity.

    PubMed

    Belsky, Daniel W; Moffitt, Terrie E; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Houts, Renate; McCarthy, Jeanette; Caspi, Avshalom

    2013-01-01

    Multi-locus profiles of genetic risk, so-called "genetic risk scores," can be used to translate discoveries from genome-wide association studies into tools for population health research. We developed a genetic risk score for obesity from results of 16 published genome-wide association studies of obesity phenotypes in European-descent samples. We then evaluated this genetic risk score using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort GWAS sample (N = 10,745, 55% female, 77% white, 23% African American). Our 32-locus GRS was a statistically significant predictor of body mass index (BMI) and obesity among ARIC whites [for BMI, r = 0.13, p<1 × 10(-30); for obesity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.57 (95% CI 0.55-0.58)]. The GRS predicted differences in obesity risk net of demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic information. The GRS performed less well among African Americans. The genetic risk score we derived from GWAS provides a molecular measurement of genetic predisposition to elevated BMI and obesity.[Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Biodemography and Social Biology for the following resource: Supplement to Development & Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Obesity.].

  20. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G.; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R.; Vashist, Yogesh K.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score. PMID:26886613

  1. Development of a cardiovascular risk score for use in low- and middle-income countries

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Summary measures of cardiovascular risk have long been used in public health, but few include nutritional predictors despite extensive evidence linking diet and heart disease. Study objectives were to develop and validate a novel risk score in a case-control study of myocardial infarction (MI) condu...

  2. Improving prediction of outcomes in African Americans with normal stress echocardiograms using a risk scoring system.

    PubMed

    Sutter, David A; Thomaides, Athanasios; Hornsby, Kyle; Mahenthiran, Jothiharan; Feigenbaum, Harvey; Sawada, Stephen G

    2013-06-01

    Cardiovascular mortality is high in African Americans, and those with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at increased risk. The aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring system to improve the prediction of cardiovascular events in African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography. Clinical data and rest echocardiographic measurements were obtained in 548 consecutive African Americans with normal results on rest and stress echocardiography and ejection fractions ≥50%. Patients were followed for myocardial infarction and death for 3 years. Predictors of cardiovascular events were determined with Cox regression, and hazard ratios were used to determine the number of points in the risk score attributed to each independent predictor. During follow-up of 3 years, 47 patients (8.6%) had events. Five variables-age (≥45 years in men, ≥55 years in women), history of coronary disease, history of smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, and exercise intolerance (<7 METs in men, <5 METs in women, or need for dobutamine stress)-were independent predictors of events. A risk score was derived for each patient (ranging from 0 to 8 risk points). The area under the curve for the risk score was 0.82 with the optimum cut-off risk score of 6. Among patients with risk scores ≥6, 30% had events, compared with 3% with risk score <6 (p <0.001). In conclusion, African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at significant risk for cardiovascular events. A risk score can be derived from clinical and echocardiographic variables, which can accurately distinguish high- and low-risk patients.

  3. Preoperative risk score predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection in a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Chang, Chun-Ming; Yin, Wen-Yao; Su, Yu-Chieh; Wei, Chang-Kao; Lee, Cheng-Hung; Juang, Shiun-Yang; Chen, Yi-Ting; Chen, Jin-Cherng; Lee, Ching-Chih

    2014-09-01

    The impact of important preexisting comorbidities, such as liver and renal disease, on the outcome of liver resection remains unclear. Identification of patients at risk of mortality will aid in improving preoperative preparations. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a population-based score based on available preoperative and predictable parameters predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection using data from a hepatitis endemic country.We identified 13,159 patients who underwent liver resection between 2002 and 2006 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In a randomly selected half of the total patients, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction score for estimating the risk of 90-day mortality by patient demographics, preoperative liver disease and comorbidities, indication for surgery, and procedure type. The score was validated with the remaining half of the patients.Overall 90-day mortality was 3.9%. Predictive characteristics included in the model were age, preexisting cirrhosis-related complications, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, renal disease, malignancy, and procedure type. Four risk groups were stratified by mortality scores of 1.1%, 2.2%, 7.7%, and 15%. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications were the strongest predictors. The score discriminated well in both the derivation and validation sets with c-statistics of 0.75 and 0.75, respectively.This population-based score could identify patients at risk of 90-day mortality before liver resection. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications had the strongest influence on mortality. This score enables preoperative risk stratification, decision-making, quality assessment, and counseling for individual patients.

  4. Top Altmetric Scores in the Parkinson’s Disease Literature

    PubMed Central

    Araújo, Rui; Sorensen, Aaron A.; Konkiel, Stacy; Bloem, Bastiaan R.

    2017-01-01

    A new class of social web-based metrics for scholarly publications (altmetrics) has surfaced as a complement to traditional citation-based metrics. Our aim was to study and characterize those recent papers in the field of Parkinson’s disease which had received the highest Altmetric Attention Scores and to compare this attention measure to the traditional metrics. The top 20 papers in our analysis covered a variety of topics, mainly new disease mechanisms, treatment options and risk factors for the development of PD. The main media sources for these high attention papers were news items and Twitter. The papers were published predominantly in high impact journals, suggesting a correlation between altmetrics and conventional metrics. One paper published in a relatively modest journal received a significant amount of attention, reflecting that public attention does not always parallel the traditional metrics. None of the most influential papers in PD, as reviewed by Ponce and Lozano (2011) made it to our list, suggesting that recent publications receive higher attention scores, and that altmetrics may omit older, seminal work in the field. PMID:28222540

  5. Women's Heart Disease: Heart Disease Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Women's Heart Disease Heart Disease Risk Factors Past Issues / Winter 2014 Table ... or habits may raise your risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). These conditions are known as risk ...

  6. Dietary Intake Is Related to Multifactor Cardiovascular Risk Score in Obese Boys

    PubMed Central

    Schumacher, Tracy L.; Burrows, Tracy L.; Cliff, Dylan P.; Jones, Rachel A.; Okely, Anthony D.; Baur, Louise A.; Morgan, Philip J.; Callister, Robin; Boggess, May M.; Collins, Clare E.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) originates in childhood and early identification of risk factors provides an early intervention opportunity. The aim was to identify children at higher risk using a CVD risk score, developed from factors known to cluster in childhood. Risk was scored as very high (≥97.5th centile), high (≥95th), moderate (≥90th) or threshold (<90th) using normal pediatric reference ranges for 10 common biomedical risk factors. These were summed in a multifactor CVD risk score and applied to a sample of 285 observations from 136 overweight Australian children (41% male, aged 7–12 years). Strength of associations between CVD risk score and individual biomedical and dietary variables were assessed using univariate logistic regression. High waist circumference (Odds Ratio: 5.48 [95% CI: 2.60–11.55]), body mass index (OR: 3.22 [1.98–5.26]), serum insulin (OR: 3.37 [2.56–4.42]) and triglycerides (OR: 3.02 [2.22–4.12]) were all significantly related to CVD risk score. High intakes of total fat (OR: 4.44 [1.19–16.60]), sugar (OR: 2.82 [1.54–5.15]) and carbohydrate (OR 1.75 [1.11–2.77]) were significantly related to CVD risk score in boys only. This multifactor CVD risk score could be a useful tool for researchers to identify elevated risk in children. Further research is warranted to examine sex-specific dietary factors related to CVD risk in children. PMID:27429277

  7. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015

    PubMed Central

    Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for “optimizing” care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3–5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer

  8. The atherosclerosis burden score (ABS): a convenient ultrasound-based score of peripheral atherosclerosis for coronary artery disease prediction.

    PubMed

    Yerly, Patrick; Marquès-Vidal, Pedro; Owlya, Reza; Eeckhout, Eric; Kappenberger, Lukas; Darioli, Roger; Depairon, Michèle

    2015-03-01

    Ultrasonographic detection of subclinical atherosclerosis improves cardiovascular risk stratification, but uncertainty persists about the most discriminative method to apply. In this study, we found that the "atherosclerosis burden score (ABS)", a novel straightforward ultrasonographic score that sums the number of carotid and femoral arterial bifurcations with plaques, significantly outperformed common carotid intima-media thickness, carotid mean/maximal thickness, and carotid/femoral plaque scores for the detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area under the curve (AUC) = 0.79; P = 0.027 to <0.001 with the other five US endpoints) in 203 patients undergoing coronary angiography. ABS was also more correlated with CAD extension (R = 0.55; P < 0.001). Furthermore, in a second group of 1128 patients without cardiovascular disease, ABS was weakly correlated with the European Society of Cardiology chart risk categories (R(2) = 0.21), indicating that ABS provided information beyond usual cardiovascular risk factor-based risk stratification. Pending prospective studies on hard cardiovascular endpoints, ABS appears as a promising tool in primary prevention.

  9. Time-dependent propensity score and collider-stratification bias: an example of beta2-agonist use and the risk of coronary heart disease.

    PubMed

    Sanni Ali, M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Pestman, Wiebe R; Belitser, Svetlana V; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, A; Klungel, Olaf H

    2013-04-01

    Stratification and conditioning on time-varying cofounders which are also intermediates can induce collider-stratification bias and adjust-away the (indirect) effect of exposure. Similar bias could be expected when one conditions on time-dependent PS. We explored collider-stratification and confounding bias due to conditioning or stratifying on time-dependent PS using a clinical example on the effect of inhaled short- and long-acting beta2-agonist use (SABA and LABA, respectively) on coronary heart disease (CHD). In an electronic general practice database we selected a cohort of patients with an indication for SABA and/or LABA use and ascertained potential confounders and SABA/LABA use per three month intervals. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using PS stratification as well as covariate adjustment and compared with those of Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) in both SABA and LABA use separately. In MSMs, censoring was accounted for by including inverse probability of censoring weights.The crude HR of CHD was 0.90 [95 % CI: 0.63, 1.28] and 1.55 [95 % CI: 1.06, 2.62] in SABA and LABA users respectively. When PS stratification, covariate adjustment using PS, and MSMs were used, the HRs were 1.09 [95 % CI: 0.74, 1.61], 1.07 [95 % CI: 0.72, 1.60], and 0.86 [95 % CI: 0.55, 1.34] for SABA, and 1.09 [95 % CI: 0.74, 1.62], 1.13 [95 % CI: 0.76, 1.67], 0.77 [95 % CI: 0.45, 1.33] for LABA, respectively. Results were similar for different PS methods, but higher than those of MSMs. When treatment and confounders vary during follow-up, conditioning or stratification on time-dependent PS could induce substantial collider-stratification or confounding bias; hence, other methods such as MSMs are recommended.

  10. Assessment of the value of a genetic risk score in improving the estimation of coronary risk

    PubMed Central

    Lluis-Ganella, Carla; Subirana, Isaac; Lucas, Gavin; Tomás, Marta; Muñoz, Daniel; Sentí, Mariano; Salas, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Ramos, Rafel; Ordovas, Jose M; Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    Background The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS improves the predictive capacity of the Framingham risk function. Methods and results Using eight genetic variants associated with CHD but not with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), we generated a multi-locus GRS, and found it to be linearly associated with CHD in two population based cohorts: The REGICOR Study (n=2,351) and The Framingham Heart Study (n=3,537) (meta-analyzed HR [95%CI]: ~1.13 [1.01–1.27], per unit). Inclusion of the GRS in the Framingham risk function improved its discriminative capacity in the Framingham sample (c-statistic: 72.81 vs.72.37, p=0.042) but not in the REGICOR sample. According to both the net reclassification improvement (NRI) index and the integrated discrimination index (IDI), the GRS improved re-classification among individuals with intermediate coronary risk (meta-analysis NRI [95%CI]: 17.44 [8.04; 26.83]), but not overall. Conclusions A multi-locus GRS based on genetic variants unrelated to CVRFs was associated with a linear increase in risk of CHD events in two distinct populations. This GRS improves risk reclassification particularly in the population at intermediate coronary risk. These results indicate the potential value of the inclusion of genetic information in classical functions for risk assessment in the intermediate risk population group. PMID:22521901

  11. Parthenium Dermatitis Severity Score to Assess Clinical Severity of Disease

    PubMed Central

    Verma, Kaushal K; Bansal, Arika; Bhari, Neetu; Sethuraman, Gomathy

    2017-01-01

    Background: Parthenium dermatitis is the most common type of airborne contact dermatitis in India. It is a chronic disease of a remitting and relapsing course with significant morbidity and distress, but there is no scoring system to assess its severity. Aim: To design a scoring system for the assessment of clinical severity of disease in Parthenium dermatitis and to use this scoring system in various studies to determine its sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility. Methods and Results: In our first few studies on Parthenium dermatitis, we designed and used a basic clinical severity scoring system based on itching, morphology of the lesions, and areas involved. However, in subsequent studies, we modified it to the present scoring system as Parthenium dermatitis severity score (PDSS). Our studies showed the high sensitivity of PDSS in characterization of the disease severity at the given point of time, as well as to determine the efficacy of a prescribed treatment modality which was reliable and reproducible. Conclusion: Thus, PDSS may be used by clinicians for appropriate scoring of the clinical severity of Parthenium dermatitis and in monitoring the disease response to therapy. PMID:28216730

  12. Inspection Score and Grading System for Food Services in Brazil: The Results of a Food Safety Strategy to Reduce the Risk of Foodborne Diseases during the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

    PubMed

    da Cunha, Diogo T; Saccol, Ana L de Freitas; Tondo, Eduardo C; de Oliveira, Ana B A; Ginani, Veronica C; Araújo, Carolina V; Lima, Thalita A S; de Castro, Angela K F; Stedefeldt, Elke

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, Brazil hosted one of the most popular sport competitions in the world, the FIFA World Cup. Concerned about the intense migration of tourists, the Brazilian government decided to deploy a food safety strategy based on inspection scores and a grading system applied to food services. The present study aimed to evaluate the results of the food safety strategy deployed during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. To assess food safety, an evaluation instrument was applied twice in 1927 food service establishments from 26 cities before the start of the competition. This instrument generated a food safety score for each establishment that ranged from 0.0 (no flaws observed) to 2565.95, with four possible grades: A (0.0-13.2); B (13.3-502.6); C (502.7-1152.2); and pending (more than 1152.3). Each food service received a stamp with the grade of the second evaluation. After the end of the World Cup, a study was conducted with different groups of the public to evaluate the acceptance of the strategy. To this end, 221 consumers, 998 food service owners or managers, 150 health surveillance auditors, and 27 health surveillance coordinators were enrolled. These participants completed a survey with positive and negative responses about the inspection score system through a 5-point Likert scale. A reduction in violation scores from 393.1 to 224.4 (p < 0.001) was observed between the first and second evaluation cycles. Of the food services evaluated, 38.7% received the A stamp, 41.4% the B stamp, and 13.9% the C stamp. All positive responses on "system reliability" presented a mean of 4.0 or more, indicating that the public believed this strategy is reliable for communicating risks and promoting food safety. The strategy showed positive results regarding food safety and public acceptance. The deployed strategy promoted improvements in the food safety of food services. The implementation of a permanent policy may be well accepted by the public and may greatly contribute to a

  13. Inspection Score and Grading System for Food Services in Brazil: The Results of a Food Safety Strategy to Reduce the Risk of Foodborne Diseases during the 2014 FIFA World Cup

    PubMed Central

    da Cunha, Diogo T.; Saccol, Ana L. de Freitas; Tondo, Eduardo C.; de Oliveira, Ana B. A.; Ginani, Veronica C.; Araújo, Carolina V.; Lima, Thalita A. S.; de Castro, Angela K. F.; Stedefeldt, Elke

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, Brazil hosted one of the most popular sport competitions in the world, the FIFA World Cup. Concerned about the intense migration of tourists, the Brazilian government decided to deploy a food safety strategy based on inspection scores and a grading system applied to food services. The present study aimed to evaluate the results of the food safety strategy deployed during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. To assess food safety, an evaluation instrument was applied twice in 1927 food service establishments from 26 cities before the start of the competition. This instrument generated a food safety score for each establishment that ranged from 0.0 (no flaws observed) to 2565.95, with four possible grades: A (0.0–13.2); B (13.3–502.6); C (502.7–1152.2); and pending (more than 1152.3). Each food service received a stamp with the grade of the second evaluation. After the end of the World Cup, a study was conducted with different groups of the public to evaluate the acceptance of the strategy. To this end, 221 consumers, 998 food service owners or managers, 150 health surveillance auditors, and 27 health surveillance coordinators were enrolled. These participants completed a survey with positive and negative responses about the inspection score system through a 5-point Likert scale. A reduction in violation scores from 393.1 to 224.4 (p < 0.001) was observed between the first and second evaluation cycles. Of the food services evaluated, 38.7% received the A stamp, 41.4% the B stamp, and 13.9% the C stamp. All positive responses on “system reliability” presented a mean of 4.0 or more, indicating that the public believed this strategy is reliable for communicating risks and promoting food safety. The strategy showed positive results regarding food safety and public acceptance. The deployed strategy promoted improvements in the food safety of food services. The implementation of a permanent policy may be well accepted by the public and may greatly

  14. Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

    PubMed

    Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

    2016-04-01

    The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

  15. Implementation of the Simple Endoscopic Activity Score in Crohn's Disease

    PubMed Central

    Koutroumpakis, Efstratios; Katsanos, Konstantinos H.

    2016-01-01

    Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) was developed as an attempt to simplify Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity (CDEIS). Since it was constructed from CDEIS, SES-CD performs comparably but also carries similar limitations. Several studies have utilized SES-CD scoring to describe disease severity or response to therapy. Some of them used SES-CD score as a continuous variable while others utilized certain cutoff values to define severity grades. All SES-CD cutoff values reported in published clinical trials were empirically selected by experts. Although in most of the studies that used SEC-CD scoring to define disease severity, a score <3 reflected inactive disease, no study is using score 0 to predefine inactivity. Studies applying SES-CD to define response to treatment used score 0. There is no optimal SES-CD cut-off for endoscopic remission. The quantification of mucosal healing using SES-CD scoring has not been standardized yet. As the definition of mucosal healing by SES-CD is unset, the concept of deep remission is also still evolving. Serum and fecal biomarkers as well as new radiologic imaging techniques are complementary to SES-CD. Current practice as well as important changes in endoscopy should be taken into consideration when defining SES-CD cutoffs. The optimal timing of SES-CD scoring to assess mucosal healing is not defined yet. To conclude, SES-CD represents a valuable tool. However, a consensus agreement on its optimal use is required. PMID:27184635

  16. Endoscopic scoring systems for inflammatory bowel disease: pros and cons.

    PubMed

    Tontini, Gian Eugenio; Bisschops, Raf; Neumann, Helmut

    2014-07-01

    Endoscopy plays a pivotal role for diagnosis and assessment of disease activity and extent in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases. International guidelines recommend the use of endoscopic scoring systems for evaluation of the prognosis and efficacy of medical treatments. Ideal scoring systems are easy to use, reproducible, reliable, responsive to changes, and validated in different clinical settings in order to guide therapeutic strategies. However, currently available endoscopic scoring systems often appear as complex for routine endoscopy and suffer from insufficient interobserver agreement and lack of formal validation which often limit their use in clinical trials. Here, we describe the role of endoscopic scoring systems in inflammatory bowel diseases focusing on pros and cons in the era of advanced endoscopic imaging and mucosal healing.

  17. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Schuetz, Philipp; Huber, Andreas; Müller, Beat; Maisano, Francesco; Taramasso, Maurizio; Moarof, Igal; Obeid, Slayman; Stähli, Barbara E.; Cahenzly, Martin; Binder, Ronald K.; Liebetrau, Christoph; Möllmann, Helge; Kim, Won-Keun; Hamm, Christian; Lüscher, Thomas F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population. Objectives We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population. Methods We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. Conclusions Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis. PMID

  18. Angle Closure Scoring System (ACSS)-A Scoring System for Stratification of Angle Closure Disease

    PubMed Central

    Rao, Aparna; Padhy, Debananda; Sarangi, Sarada; Das, Gopinath

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the angle closure scoring system (ACSS) for stratifying primary angle course disease. Methods This observational cross sectional institutional study included patients with primary open angle glaucoma suspects (n = 21) and primary angle closure disease (primary angle closure, PAC, n = 63 and primary angle course glaucoma, PACG, n = 58 (defined by International society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology, ISGEO). Two independent examiners blinded to clinical details, graded good quality pre-laser goniophotographs of the patients incorporating quadrants of peripheral anterior synechieae (PAS), non-visibility of posterior trabecular meshwork (PTM) and blotchy pigments (ranging from 1–4 quadrants), iris configuration, angle recess (sum of above depicting ACSSg) and lens thickness/axial length ratio (LT/AL), cup disc ratio and baseline intraocular pressure (IOP) to give total score (ACSSt). Result There were significant differences in ACSSg scores within the same ISGEO stage of PAC and PACG between eyes that required nil or >1medicines after laser iridotomy, p<0.001. The ACSSg was associated with need for >1 medicines in both PAC and PACG eyes, p<0.001. An ACSSg score>12 and 14 in PAC (odds ratio = 2.7(95% CI-1.7–5.9) and PACG (Odds ratio = 1.6(95%CI-1.19–2.2) predicted need for single medicines while ACSSg scores >14 and 19 predicted need for ≥2 medicines in PAC and PACG eyes, respectively. The LT/Al ratio, IOP score or cup disc score did not influence the need for medical treatment independently. Conclusion The ACSS can be a useful clinical adjunct to the ISGEO system to predict need for medicines and prognosticate each stage more accurately. PMID:27788183

  19. Role of the Egami Score in Predicting Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Kawasaki Disease Among Different Ethnicities.

    PubMed

    Loomba, Rohit S; Raskin, Alexander; Gudausky, Todd M; Kirkpatrick, Edward

    Early treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is necessary to help reduce the risk of coronary artery abnormalities, such as coronary artery aneurysms and to help alleviate symptoms, in Kawasaki disease. Some patients, however, do not respond to an initial dose of IVIG and require additional doses. Prediction of these IVIG nonresponders may be of assistance in altering initial therapy to make it more effective. The Egami score has been validated in the Japanese population to predict IVIG nonresponders but has shown to be ineffective in US populations. This study evaluates the Egami score in a Midwest US population, subdividing patients by race and the diagnosis of typical or atypical type of Kawasaki disease. Patients were included in the study if they met criteria for Kawasaki disease and received IVIG in the inpatient setting. A total of 182 patients were studied, and in all studied groups, the Egami score had poor sensitivity at predicting IVIG nonresponders. Sensitivity of the score differed between races and differed between typical and atypical Kawasaki disease. The Egami score, as well as other systems, have been validated to predict IVIG nonresponders. These, however, lack sensitivity in the US population. Other scores developed in the United States have also lacked sensitivity, likely due to the absence of race or Kawasaki disease classification as variables. The development of a sensitive scoring system to predict IVIG nonresponders in US populations will require the incorporation of race and Kawasaki disease classification, factors that seem to alter IVIG response.

  20. Surgical mortality score: risk management tool for auditing surgical performance.

    PubMed

    Hadjianastassiou, Vassilis G; Tekkis, Paris P; Poloniecki, Jan D; Gavalas, Manolis C; Goldhill, David R

    2004-02-01

    Existing methods of risk adjustment in surgical audit are complex and costly. The present study aimed to develop a simple risk stratification score for mortality and a robust audit tool using the existing resources of the hospital Patient Administration System (PAS) database. This was an observational study for all patients undergoing surgical procedures over a two-year period, at a London university hospital. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictive factors of in-hospital mortality, the study outcome. Odds ratios were used as weights in the derivation of a simple risk-stratification model-the Surgical Mortality Score (SMS). Observed-to-expected mortality risk ratios were calculated for application of the SMS model in surgical audit. There were 11,089 eligible cases, under five surgical specialties (maxillofacial, orthopedic, renal transplant/dialysis, general, and neurosurgery). Incomplete data were 3.7% of the total, with no evidence of systematic underreporting. The SMS model was well calibrated [Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic: development set (3.432, p = 0.33), validation set (6.359, p = 0.10) with a high discriminant ability (ROC areas: development set [0.837, S.E.=0.013] validation set [0.816, S.E. = 0.016]). Subgroup analyses confirmed that the model can be used by the individual specialties for both elective and emergency cases. The SMS is an accurate risk- stratification model derived from existing database resources. It is simple to apply as a risk-management, screening tool to detect aberrations from expected surgical outcomes and to assist in surgical audit.

  1. A Global Risk Score (GRS) to Simultaneously Predict Early and Late Tumor Recurrence Risk after Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma1

    PubMed Central

    Dekervel, Jeroen; Popovic, Dusan; van Malenstein, Hannah; Windmolders, Petra; Heylen, Line; Libbrecht, Louis; Bulle, Ashenafi; De Moor, Bart; Van Cutsem, Eric; Nevens, Frederik; Verslype, Chris; van Pelt, Jos

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma can arise from the primary tumor (“early recurrence”) or de novo from tumor formation in a cirrhotic environment (“late recurrence”). We aimed to develop one simple gene expression score applicable in both the tumor and the surrounding liver that can predict the recurrence risk. METHODS: We determined differentially expressed genes in a cell model of cancer aggressiveness. These genes were first validated in three large published data sets of hepatocellular carcinoma from which we developed a seven-gene risk score. RESULTS: The gene score was applied on two independent large patient cohorts. In the first cohort, with only tumor data available, it could predict the recurrence risk at 3 years after resection (68 ± 10% vs 35 ± 7%, P = .03). In the second cohort, when applied on the tumor, this gene score predicted early recurrence (62 ± 5% vs 37 ± 4%, P < .001), and when applied on the surrounding liver tissue, the same genes also correlated with late recurrence. Four patient classes with each different time patterns and rates of recurrence could be identified based on combining tumor and liver scores. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, our gene score remained significantly associated with recurrence, independent from other important cofactors such as disease stage (P = .007). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a Global Risk Score that is able to simultaneously predict the risk of early recurrence when applied on the tumor itself, as well as the risk of late recurrence when applied on the surrounding liver tissue. PMID:27084430

  2. Identifying Mendelian disease genes with the Variant Effect Scoring Tool

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Whole exome sequencing studies identify hundreds to thousands of rare protein coding variants of ambiguous significance for human health. Computational tools are needed to accelerate the identification of specific variants and genes that contribute to human disease. Results We have developed the Variant Effect Scoring Tool (VEST), a supervised machine learning-based classifier, to prioritize rare missense variants with likely involvement in human disease. The VEST classifier training set comprised ~ 45,000 disease mutations from the latest Human Gene Mutation Database release and another ~45,000 high frequency (allele frequency >1%) putatively neutral missense variants from the Exome Sequencing Project. VEST outperforms some of the most popular methods for prioritizing missense variants in carefully designed holdout benchmarking experiments (VEST ROC AUC = 0.91, PolyPhen2 ROC AUC = 0.86, SIFT4.0 ROC AUC = 0.84). VEST estimates variant score p-values against a null distribution of VEST scores for neutral variants not included in the VEST training set. These p-values can be aggregated at the gene level across multiple disease exomes to rank genes for probable disease involvement. We tested the ability of an aggregate VEST gene score to identify candidate Mendelian disease genes, based on whole-exome sequencing of a small number of disease cases. We used whole-exome data for two Mendelian disorders for which the causal gene is known. Considering only genes that contained variants in all cases, the VEST gene score ranked dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) number 2 of 2253 genes in four cases of Miller syndrome, and myosin-3 (MYH3) number 2 of 2313 genes in three cases of Freeman Sheldon syndrome. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the potential power gain of aggregating bioinformatics variant scores into gene-level scores and the general utility of bioinformatics in assisting the search for disease genes in large-scale exome sequencing studies. VEST is

  3. Disease scoring systems for oral lichen planus; a critical appraisal

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jing

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study has been to critically review 22 disease scoring systems (DSSs) on oral lichen planus (OLP) that have been reported in the literature during the past decades. Although the presently available DSSs may all have some merit, particularly for research purposes, the diversity of both the objective and subjective parameters used in these systems and the lack of acceptance of one of these systems for uniform use, there is a need for an international, authorized consensus meeting on this subject. Because of the natural course of OLP characterized by remissions and exacerbations and also due to the varying distribution pattern and the varying clinical types, e.g. reticular and erosive, the relevance of a DSS based on morphologic parameters is somewhat questionable. Instead, one may consider to only look for a quality of life scoring system adapted for use in OLP patients. Key words:Oral lichen planus, disease scoring system, classification. PMID:25681372

  4. Utility of Framingham Risk Score in Urban Emergency Department Patients with Asymptomatic Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Brody, Aaron M.; Flack, John M.; Ference, Brian A.; Levy, Phillip D.

    2014-01-01

    Hypertension (HTN) is the primary population-attributable risk for the development of heart failure (HF); a disease with devastating consequences particularly in urban centers where morbidity and mortality are more pronounced. The Framingham Risk Profile (FRP) is widely used to quantify risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but its applicability in an urban population who utilize the emergency department (ED) for primary care is unknown. Our objective for this study is to evaluate FRP scores in ED patients with asymptomatic HTN and subclinical hypertensive heart disease (SHHD). This is a sub study of a prospective randomized clinical trial designed to evaluate optimal blood pressure (BP) targets. Eligible patients were screened with echocardiography for the presence of SHHD and FRP scores were calculated. 149 patients enrolled in the study, 133 (89.2%) of whom had detectable SHHD. Mean [SD] calculated FRP scores were statistically similar for patients with SHHD vs. those without (general CVD: 20.2 [8.5] vs. 15.6 [8.7]; p=0.13 and HF calibrated: 2.4 [1.0] vs. 1.8 [1.0]; p=0.12) corresponding to a calculated risk of 15%–30% for subsequent development of CVD. The HF specific risk score for patients with SHHD was 2.4, which equates to a 2.5% risk of HF development in 10 years. The FRP correctly identified those with SHHD as high-risk for general CVD but appeared to underestimate the likelihood of HF. Recalibration of the HF adjustment factor and inclusion of additional data elements such as echocardiography is needed to enhance applicability of the FRP in this setting. PMID:25062396

  5. Relationship between Calcium Score and Myocardial Scintigraphy in the Diagnosis of Coronary Disease

    PubMed Central

    Siqueira, Fabio Paiva Rossini; Mesquita, Claudio Tinoco; dos Santos, Alair Augusto Sarmet M. Damas; Nacif, Marcelo Souto

    2016-01-01

    Half the patients with coronary artery disease present with sudden death - or acute infarction as first symptom, making early diagnosis pivotal. Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy is frequently used in the assessment of these patients, but it does not detect the disease without flow restriction, exposes the patient to high levels of radiation and is costly. On the other hand, with less radiological exposure, calcium score is directly correlated to the presence and extension of coronary atherosclerosis, and also to the risk of cardiovascular events. Even though calcium score is a tried-and-true method for stratification of asymptomatic patients, its use is still reduced in this context, since current guidelines are contradictory to its use on symptomatic diseases. The aim of this review is to identify, on patients under investigation for coronary artery disease, the main evidence of the use of calcium score associated with functional evaluation and scintigraphy. PMID:27437867

  6. Cardiovascular Outcomes in the Outpatient Kidney Transplant Clinic: The Framingham Risk Score Revisited

    PubMed Central

    Kiberd, Bryce; Panek, Romuald

    2008-01-01

    Background and objectives: Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and death in kidney transplant recipients. This study examines the Framingham risk score's ability to predict cardiac and stroke events. Because cyclosporine and tacrolimus have different cardiovascular risk profiles, these agents were also examined. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: A prospective cohort evaluation of 540 patients were followed for a median of 4.7 yr in an outpatient kidney transplant clinic. Baseline Framingham risk scores were calculated and all cardiovascular outcomes were collected. Results: Rates per 100 patient-years were 1.79 for cardiac and 0.78 for stroke events. The ratio of observed-to-predicted cardiac events was 1.64-fold higher [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 2.94] for the cohort, 2.74-fold higher (95% CI 1.70 to 4.24) in patients age 45 to 60 with prior cardiac disease or diabetes mellitus, but not higher in other age subgroups. Stroke was not increased above predicted. Risk scores for cardiac (c = 0.65, P = 0.003) and stroke (c = 0.71, P = 0.004) events were modest predictors. 10-yr event scores for cardiac (9.3 versus 13.5%, P < 0.001) and stroke (7.1 versus 10.0%, P = 0.002) were lower for tacrolimus compared with cyclosporine-treated patients. However observed cardiac events were higher in tacrolimus recipients (2.50, 95% CI 1.09 to 5.90) in an adjusted Cox model. Conclusions: Although risk scores are only modest predictors, patients with the highest event rates are easily identified. Treating high-risk patients with cardioprotective medications should remain a priority. PMID:18322053

  7. Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

    2016-01-01

    Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

  8. CIBMTR Chronic GVHD Risk Score Predicts Mortality in an Independent Validation Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Arora, Mukta; Hemmer, Michael T.; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Klein, John P.; Cutler, Corey S.; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Couriel, Daniel R.; Alousi, Amin M.; Gale, Robert Peter; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Li, Peigang; Antin, Joseph H.; Bolwell, Brian J.; Boyiadzis, Michael; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell S.; Isola, Luis M.; Jacobsohn, David A.; Jagasia, Madan; Klumpp, Thomas R.; Petersdorf, Effie W.; Santarone, Stella; Schouten, Harry C.; Wingard, John R.; Spellman, Stephen R.; Pavletic, Steven Z.; Lee, Stephanie J.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Flowers, Mary E.D.

    2015-01-01

    We previously reported a risk score that predicted mortality in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (CGVHD) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT) between 1995–2004 and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Registry (CIBMTR). We sought to validate this risk score in an independent CIBMTR cohort of 1128 patients with CGVHD transplanted between 2005–2007 using the same inclusion criteria and risk-score calculations. According to the sum of the overall risk score (range 1 to 12), patients were assigned to 4 risk-groups (RGs): RG1 (0–2), RG2 (3–6), RG3 (7–8) and RG4 (9–10). RG3 and 4 were combined as RG4 comprised only 1% of the total cohort. Cumulative incidences of non relapse mortality (NRM) and probability of overall survival (OS) were significantly different between each RG (all p<0.01). NRM and OS at five years after CGVHD for each RG were 17% and 72% in RG1, 26% and 53% in RG2, and 44% and 25% in RG 3, respectively (all p<0.01). Our study validates the prognostic value of the CIBMTR CGVHD RGs for OS and NRM in a contemporary transplant population. The CIBMTR CGVHD RGs can be used to predict major outcomes, tailor treatment planning, and enrollment in clinical trials. PMID:25528390

  9. Clinical validity and utility of genetic risk scores in prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Helfand, Brian T; Kearns, James; Conran, Carly; Xu, Jianfeng

    2016-01-01

    Current issues related to prostate cancer (PCa) clinical care (e.g., over-screening, over-diagnosis, and over-treatment of nonaggressive PCa) call for risk assessment tools that can be combined with family history (FH) to stratify disease risk among men in the general population. Since 2007, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified more than 100 SNPs associated with PCa susceptibility. In this review, we discuss (1) the validity of these PCa risk-associated SNPs, individually and collectively; (2) the various methods used for measuring the cumulative effect of multiple SNPs, including genetic risk score (GRS); (3) the adequate number of SNPs needed for risk assessment; (4) reclassification of risk based on evolving numbers of SNPs used to calculate genetic risk, (5) risk assessment for men from various racial groups, and (6) the clinical utility of genetic risk assessment. In conclusion, data available to date support the clinical validity of PCa risk-associated SNPs and GRS in risk assessment among men with or without FH. PCa risk-associated SNPs are not intended for diagnostic use; rather, they should be used the same way as FH. Combining GRS and FH can significantly improve the performance of risk assessment. Improved risk assessment may have important clinical utility in targeted PCa testing. However, clinical trials are urgently needed to evaluate this clinical utility as well as the acceptance of GRS by patients and physicians. PMID:27297129

  10. Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

    PubMed Central

    Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D.; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio

    2017-01-01

    AIM To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship (P>0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y. PMID:28393027

  11. Fungal Diseases: Ringworm Risk & Prevention

    MedlinePlus

    ... Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases Mycotic Diseases Branch Ringworm Risk & Prevention Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Who gets ringworm? Ringworm is very common. Anyone can get ringworm, ...

  12. Correlation between the different pH-metry scores in gastroesophageal reflux disease in children

    PubMed Central

    Lupu, Vasile Valeriu; Ignat, Ancuţa; Paduraru, Gabriela; Ciubara, Anamaria; Moscalu, Mihaela; Marginean, Cristina Oana; Burlea, Marin

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The 24-hour esophageal pH-metry is the most widely used method to diagnose the gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). The study compares the different scores obtained during the 24-hour esophageal pH-metry. A retrospective study over 5 years including 234 children (1 month and 18 years old) admitted in a pediatric gastroenterology regional center in Northeast Romania, with suspicion of GERD. They underwent 24- hour esophageal pH-metry, and the scores obtained (Boix-Ochoa, DeMeester, Johnson-DeMeester) were compared. Out of the 234 children, 172 (73.50%) had positive Boix-Ochoa score and 62 (26.50%) had normal Boix-Ochoa score (<11.99). Based on the DeMeester score, 149 children (63.68%) were positive and 85 (36.32%) were negative. The correlation of the Demeester score with the Boix-Ochoa score was very high (r = 0.978, P <  < 0.01, 95% confidence interval). Considering the Johnson-DeMeester score, 120 cases (51.28%) had GERD and 114 (48.72%) did not. The correlation of the Johnson-DeMeester score with the Boix-Ochoa score was still high (r = 0.94, P <  < 0.01, 95% 95% confidence interval). As considered until now, the Boix-Ochoa score is the most accurate score to be used in pediatrics for the diagnosis of GERD. The use of the different scores—Boix-Ochoa, DeMeester, Johnson-DeMeester—showed a high sensitivity and specificity of the pH-metry measurements applied to the study lot, but the last score has a higher risk of false-negative results. PMID:27367982

  13. The development of the disease activity score (DAS) and the disease activity score using 28 joint counts (DAS28).

    PubMed

    van Riel, P L C M

    2014-01-01

    In rheumatoid arthritis, disease activity cannot be measured using a single variable. The Disease Activity Score (DAS) has been developed as a quantitative index to be able to measure, study and manage disease activity in RA in daily clinical practice, clinical trials, and long term observational studies. The DAS is a continuous measure of RA disease activity that combines information from swollen joints, tender joints, acute phase response and patient self-report of general health. Cut points were developed to classify patients in remission, as well as low, moderate, and severe disease activity in the 1990s. DAS-based EULAR response criteria were primarily developed to be used in clinical trials to classify individual patients as non-, moderate, or good responders, depending on the magnitude of change and absolute level of disease activity at the conclusion of the test.

  14. Heart Disease: Know Your Risk

    MedlinePlus

    A project of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office on Women's Health Skip ... Heart disease risk factors you can't control Other possible heart disease risk factors Stroke: Know your ...

  15. Direct power comparisons between simple LOD scores and NPL scores for linkage analysis in complex diseases.

    PubMed

    Abreu, P C; Greenberg, D A; Hodge, S E

    1999-09-01

    Several methods have been proposed for linkage analysis of complex traits with unknown mode of inheritance. These methods include the LOD score maximized over disease models (MMLS) and the "nonparametric" linkage (NPL) statistic. In previous work, we evaluated the increase of type I error when maximizing over two or more genetic models, and we compared the power of MMLS to detect linkage, in a number of complex modes of inheritance, with analysis assuming the true model. In the present study, we compare MMLS and NPL directly. We simulated 100 data sets with 20 families each, using 26 generating models: (1) 4 intermediate models (penetrance of heterozygote between that of the two homozygotes); (2) 6 two-locus additive models; and (3) 16 two-locus heterogeneity models (admixture alpha = 1.0,.7,.5, and.3; alpha = 1.0 replicates simple Mendelian models). For LOD scores, we assumed dominant and recessive inheritance with 50% penetrance. We took the higher of the two maximum LOD scores and subtracted 0.3 to correct for multiple tests (MMLS-C). We compared expected maximum LOD scores and power, using MMLS-C and NPL as well as the true model. Since NPL uses only the affected family members, we also performed an affecteds-only analysis using MMLS-C. The MMLS-C was both uniformly more powerful than NPL for most cases we examined, except when linkage information was low, and close to the results for the true model under locus heterogeneity. We still found better power for the MMLS-C compared with NPL in affecteds-only analysis. The results show that use of two simple modes of inheritance at a fixed penetrance can have more power than NPL when the trait mode of inheritance is complex and when there is heterogeneity in the data set.

  16. Finnish Diabetes Risk Score Is Associated with Impaired Insulin Secretion and Insulin Sensitivity, Drug-Treated Hypertension and Cardiovascular Disease: A Follow-Up Study of the METSIM Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Jauhiainen, Raimo; Stančáková, Alena; Kuusisto, Johanna; Laakso, Markku

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the association of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) with insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity, and risk of type 2 diabetes, drug-treated hypertension, cardiovascular (CVD) events and total mortality in a follow-up study of the Metabolic Syndrome in Men (METSIM) cohort. The METSIM study includes 10,197 Finnish men, aged 45–73 years, and examined in 2005–2010. Of 8,749 non-diabetic participants of the METSIM study 693 developed incident type 2 diabetes, 225 started antihypertensive medication, 351 had a CVD event, and 392 died during a 8.2-year follow-up. The FINDRISC was significantly associated with decreases in insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity (P<0.0001), and with a 4.14-fold increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes, 2.43-fold increased risk of drug-treated hypertension, 1.61-fold increased risk of CVD, and 1.55-increased risk of total mortality (the FINDRISC ≥12 vs. < 12 points). In conclusion, the FINDRISC predicts impairment in insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity, the conversion to type 2 diabetes, drug-treated hypertension, CVD events and total mortality. PMID:27851812

  17. Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke

    MedlinePlus

    ... for Heart Disease & Stroke Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke About 1.5 million heart attacks and strokes happen every year in the United States. You ... some of your risks for heart disease and stroke, but you can manage many of your risks ...

  18. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    SciTech Connect

    Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  19. Circulating plasmalogen levels and Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale–Cognitive scores in Alzheimer patients

    PubMed Central

    Wood, Paul L.; Mankidy, Rishikesh; Ritchie, Shawn; Heath, Doug; Wood, Julie A.; Flax, John; Goodenowe, Dayan B.

    2010-01-01

    Background Plasmalogens, which are key structural phospholipids in brain membranes, are decreased in the brain and serum of patients with Alzheimer disease (AD). We performed this pilot study to evaluate the relation between the levels of circulating plasmalogens and Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale–Cognitive (ADAS-Cog) scores in patients with AD. Methods We evaluated participants’ ADAS-Cog scores and serum plasmalogen levels. For the 40 included AD patients with an ADAS-Cog score between 20 and 46, we retested their ADAS-Cog score 1 year later. The levels of docosahexaenoic acid plasmalogen were measured by use of liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Results We found that the ADAS-Cog score increased significantly in AD patients with circulating plasmalogen levels that were ≤ 75% of that of age-matched controls at entry into the study. There was no change in score among participants with normal serum plasmalogen levels at baseline (> 75%). Limitations This was a pilot study with 40 patients, and the results require validation in a larger population. Conclusion Our study demonstrates that decreased levels of plasmalogen precursors in the central nervous system correlate with functional decline (as measured by ADAS-Cog scores) in AD patients. The use of both ADAS-Cog and serum plasmalogen data may be a more accurate way of predicting cognitive decline in AD patients, and may be used to decrease the risk of including patients with no cognitive decline in the placebo arm of a drug trial. PMID:20040248

  20. Comparison of original EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk models in a Turkish cardiac surgical cohort†

    PubMed Central

    Kunt, Ayse Gul; Kurtcephe, Murat; Hidiroglu, Mete; Cetin, Levent; Kucuker, Aslihan; Bakuy, Vedat; Ruchan Akar, Ahmet; Sener, Erol

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to compare additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models in calculating mortality risk in a Turkish cardiac surgical population. METHODS The current patient population consisted of 428 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 2004 and 2012, extracted from the TurkoSCORE database. Observed and predicted mortalities were compared for the additive/logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values were calculated for these models to compare predictive power. RESULTS The mean patient age was 74.5 ± 3.9 years at the time of surgery, and 35.0% were female. For the entire cohort, actual hospital mortality was 7.9% (n = 34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.4–10.5). However, the additive EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 6.4% (P = 0.23 vs observed; 95% CI 6.2–6.6), logistic EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 7.9% (P = 0.98 vs observed; 95% CI 7.3–8.6), EuroSCORE II- predicted mortality was 1.7% (P = 0.00 vs observed; 95% CI 1.6–1.8) and STS predicted mortality was 5.8% (P = 0.10 vs observed; 95% CI 5.4–6.2). The mean predictive performance of the analysed models for the entire cohort was fair, with 0.7 (95% CI 0.60–0.79). AUC values for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator were 0.70 (95% CI 0.60–0.79), 0.70 (95% CI 0.59–0.80), 0.72 (95% CI 0.62–0.81) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51–0.73), respectively. CONCLUSIONS EuroSCORE II significantly underestimated mortality risk for Turkish cardiac patients, whereas additive and logistic EuroSCORE and STS risk calculators were well calibrated. PMID:23403767

  1. Relationship between Cardiovascular Risk Score and Traditional and Nontraditional Cardiometabolic Parameters in Obese Adolescent Girls

    PubMed Central

    Klisic, Aleksandra; Kavaric, Nebojsa; Soldatovic, Ivan; Bjelakovic, Bojko

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background Since the cardiovascular (CV) risk score in the young population, children and adolescents, is underestimated, especially in developing countries such as Montenegro, where a strong interaction exists between the genetically conditioned CV risk and environmental factors, the purpose of this study was to estimate CV risk in apparently healthy adolescent girls. Moreover, we aimed to test some new, emerging CV risk factors and their interaction with the traditional ones, such as obesity. Precisely, we aimed to assess the impact of low bilirubin levels, as a routine biochemical parameter, as an additional risk factor for atherosclerotic disease in the adult phase. Methods Forty-five obese adolescent girls (mean age 17.8±1.22 years) and forty-five age- and sex-matched normal weight controls, all nonsmokers, were included. Anthropometric and biochemical parameters were measured. Cardiovascular Risk Score (CVRS) was calculated by adding the points for each risk factor (e.g. sex, HDL-c, non-HDL-c, blood pressure and fasting glycemia). Results A significant positive relationship between CVRS and ALT, hsCRP and TG/HDL-c, but an opposite relationship between CVRS and total bilirubin were found (P<0.001). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that higher waist circumference (WC) and LDL-c, but lower HDL-c were independent predictors of lower bilirubin values (adjusted R2=0.603, P<0.001). Conclusions Obese adolescent girls are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease late in life. In addition to the traditional risk factors, total bilirubin may have the potential to discriminate between low and higher risk for cardiovascular disturbances in healthy adolescent girls. PMID:28356879

  2. Diet scores and cardio-metabolic risk factors among Guatemalan young adults

    PubMed Central

    Gregory, Cria O.; McCullough, Marjorie L.; Ramirez-Zea, Manuel; Stein, Aryeh D.

    2013-01-01

    We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32·7 (SD 5·8) years) in 2002–4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). All four scores were correlated with energy intake (r 0·23–0·49; all P<0·01), but had varying associations with socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors and nutrient intakes. None of the scores was inversely associated with the metabolic syndrome or its components; rather some were positively associated with risk factors. Among both men and women the DQI-I was positively associated with BMI (kg/m2; β = 0·10, 95 % CI 0·003, 0·21 (men); β = 0·07, 95 % CI 0·01, 0·14 (women)) and waist circumference (cm; β = 0·02, 95 % CI 0·01, 0·03 (men); β = 0·02, 95 % CI = 0·01, 0·02 (women)). Among men, the RFS was positively associated with TAG (mg/l; β = 0·11, 95 % CI 0·02, 0·21) and glucose (mg/l; β = 0·13: 95 % CI 0·03, 0·22). We conclude that indices of diet quality are not consistently associated with chronic disease risk factor prevalence in this population of Guatemalan young adults. PMID:19025721

  3. Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

    PubMed Central

    Nagano, Satoshi; Yokouchi, Masahiro; Setoguchi, Takao; Sasaki, Hiromi; Shimada, Hirofumi; Kawamura, Ichiro; Ishidou, Yasuhiro; Kamizono, Junichi; Yamamoto, Takuya; Kawamura, Hideki; Komiya, Setsuro

    2014-01-01

    Surgical site infection (SSI) has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST) owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases) treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P = 0.0002) and intraoperative blood loss (P = 0.0005) was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI) index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials). The MOSI index (0–4 points) score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points). The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI. PMID:24672281

  4. Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS): A novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalized patients with Clostridium difficile infection

    PubMed Central

    Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.

    2016-01-01

    Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527

  5. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment.

    PubMed

    Corcoran, David; Grant, Patrick; Berry, Colin

    2015-09-01

    Undifferentiated chest pain is one of the most common reasons for emergency department attendance and admission to hospitals. Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is an important cause of chest pain, and accurate diagnosis and risk stratification in the emergency department must be a clinical priority. In the future, the incidence of NSTE-ACS will rise further as higher sensitivity troponin assays are implemented in clinical practice. In this article, we review contemporary approaches for the diagnosis and risk stratification of NSTE-ACS during emergency care. We consider the limitations of current practices and potential improvements. Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom), in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

  6. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

    2014-01-01

    Background Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. Objective To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. Methods A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. Results The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Conclusion Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases. PMID:24652053

  7. The PROPKD Score: A New Algorithm to Predict Renal Survival in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

    PubMed

    Cornec-Le Gall, Emilie; Audrézet, Marie-Pierre; Rousseau, Annick; Hourmant, Maryvonne; Renaudineau, Eric; Charasse, Christophe; Morin, Marie-Pascale; Moal, Marie-Christine; Dantal, Jacques; Wehbe, Bassem; Perrichot, Régine; Frouget, Thierry; Vigneau, Cécile; Potier, Jérôme; Jousset, Philippe; Guillodo, Marie-Paule; Siohan, Pascale; Terki, Nazim; Sawadogo, Théophile; Legrand, Didier; Menoyo-Calonge, Victorio; Benarbia, Seddik; Besnier, Dominique; Longuet, Hélène; Férec, Claude; Le Meur, Yannick

    2016-03-01

    The course of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) varies among individuals, with some reaching ESRD before 40 years of age and others never requiring RRT. In this study, we developed a prognostic model to predict renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD on the basis of genetic and clinical data. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1341 patients from the Genkyst cohort and evaluated the influence of clinical and genetic factors on renal survival. Multivariate survival analysis identified four variables that were significantly associated with age at ESRD onset, and a scoring system from 0 to 9 was developed as follows: being male: 1 point; hypertension before 35 years of age: 2 points; first urologic event before 35 years of age: 2 points; PKD2 mutation: 0 points; nontruncating PKD1 mutation: 2 points; and truncating PKD1 mutation: 4 points. Three risk categories were subsequently defined as low risk (0-3 points), intermediate risk (4-6 points), and high risk (7-9 points) of progression to ESRD, with corresponding median ages for ESRD onset of 70.6, 56.9, and 49 years, respectively. Whereas a score ≤3 eliminates evolution to ESRD before 60 years of age with a negative predictive value of 81.4%, a score >6 forecasts ESRD onset before 60 years of age with a positive predictive value of 90.9%. This new prognostic score accurately predicts renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD and may enable the personalization of therapeutic management of ADPKD.

  8. How to calculate an MMSE score from a MODA score (and vice versa) in patients with Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Cazzaniga, R; Francescani, A; Saetti, C; Spinnler, H

    2003-11-01

    The aim of the present study was to provide a statistically sound way of reciprocally converting scores of the mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and the Milan overall dementia assessment (MODA). A consecutive series of 182 patients with "probable" Alzheimer's disease patients was examined with both tests. MODA and MMSE scores proved to be highly correlated. A formula for converting MODA and MMSE scores was generated.

  9. Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome

    PubMed Central

    Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali

    2017-01-01

    Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

  10. Prediction of coronary artery disease severity using CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores and a newly defined CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score.

    PubMed

    Cetin, Mustafa; Cakici, Musa; Zencir, Cemil; Tasolar, Hakan; Baysal, Erkan; Balli, Mehmet; Akturk, Erdal

    2014-03-15

    As the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores include similar risk factors for the development of coronary artery disease (CAD), they may provide crucial information regarding the severity of coronary artery lesions and the risk of thromboembolism. To increase the likelihood of determining CAD severity, we formulated the CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score comprising hyperlipidemia and smoking in addition to the components of the CHA2DS2-VASc score and male instead of female gender. We aimed to investigate whether these 3 risk scores can be used to predict CAD severity. A total of 407 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography were enrolled in the study. Presence of >50% stenosis in a coronary artery was assessed as significant CAD. Of the patients, 87 had normal coronary angiograms and served as group 1. The remaining 320 patients with coronary stenosis were further classified into 2 groups according to CAD with stenosis of <50% or ≥50%: 123 patients with mild CAD as group 2 and 197 patients with severe CAD as group 3. The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores were significantly different among the 3 groups. The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores correlated significantly with the number of diseased vessels (r = 0.406, p <0.001; r = 0.308, p <0.001; and r = 0.533, p <0.001, respectively) and the Gensini score (r = 0.383, p <0.001; r = 0.300, p <0.001; and r = 0.500, p <0.001, respectively). The CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score was found to be the best scoring scheme to predict CAD severity in the area under the curve comparison of these scoring systems. For prediction of severe CAD, the cut-off value of CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score was >2 with a sensitivity of 85.2% and a specificity of 57.5% (area under the curve 0.802, 95% confidence interval 0.760 to 0.839, p <0.001). In conclusion, our findings suggest that the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and especially CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores could be considered predictive of the risk of severe CAD.

  11. Wildlife disease and risk perception.

    PubMed

    Hanisch-Kirkbride, Shauna L; Riley, Shawn J; Gore, Meredith L

    2013-10-01

    Risk perception has an important influence on wildlife management and is particularly relevant to issues that present health risks, such as those associated with wildlife disease management. Knowledge of risk perceptions is useful to wildlife health professionals in developing communication messages that enhance public understanding of wildlife disease risks and that aim to increase public support for disease management. To promote knowledge of public understanding of disease risks in the context of wildlife disease management, we used a self-administered questionnaire mailed to a stratified random sample (n = 901) across the continental United States to accomplish three objectives: 1) assess zoonotic disease risk perceptions; 2) identify sociodemographic and social psychologic factors underlying these risk perceptions; and 3) examine the relationship between risk perception and agreement with wildlife disease management practices. Diseases we assessed in the surveys were rabies, plague, and West Nile virus. Risk perception, as measured by an index consisting of severity, susceptibility, and dread, was greatest for rabies and West Nile virus disease (x = 2.62 and 2.59, respectively, on a scale of 1 to 4 and least for plague (x = 2.39). The four most important variables associated with disease risk perception were gender, education, prior exposure to the disease, and concern for health effects. We found that stronger risk perception was associated with greater agreement with wildlife disease management. We found particular concern for the vulnerability of wildlife to zoonotic disease and for protection of wildlife health, indicating that stakeholders may be receptive to messages emphasizing the potential harm to wildlife from disease and to messages promoting One Health (i.e., those that emphasize the interdependence of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health).

  12. Individualized Risk of Surgical Complications: An Application of the Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment Score

    PubMed Central

    Mlodinow, Alexei S.; Khavanin, Nima; Hume, Keith M.; Simmons, Christopher J.; Weiss, Michael J.; Murphy, Robert X.; Gutowski, Karol A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Risk discussion is a central tenet of the dialogue between surgeon and patient. Risk calculators have recently offered a new way to integrate evidence-based practice into the discussion of individualized patient risk and expectation management. Focusing on the comprehensive Tracking Operations and Outcomes for Plastic Surgeons (TOPS) database, we endeavored to add plastic surgical outcomes to the previously developed Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) score. Methods: The TOPS database from 2008 to 2011 was queried for patients undergoing breast reconstruction. Regression models were constructed for the following complications: seroma, dehiscence, surgical site infection (SSI), explantation, flap failure, reoperation, and overall complications. Results: Of 11,992 cases, 4439 met inclusion criteria. Overall complication rate was 15.9%, with rates of 3.4% for seroma, 4.0% for SSI, 6.1% for dehiscence, 3.7% for explantation, 7.0% for flap loss, and 6.4% for reoperation. Individualized risk models were developed with acceptable goodness of fit, accuracy, and internal validity. Distribution of overall complication risk was broad and asymmetric, meaning that the average risk was often a poor estimate of the risk for any given patient. These models were added to the previously developed open-access version of the risk calculator, available at http://www.BRAscore.org. Conclusions: Population-based measures of risk may not accurately reflect risk for many individual patients. In this era of increasing emphasis on evidence-based medicine, we have developed a breast reconstruction risk assessment calculator from the robust TOPS database. The BRA Score tool can aid in individualizing—and quantifying—risk to better inform surgical decision making and better manage patient expectations. PMID:26090295

  13. Development and Application of a Plant-Based Diet Scoring System for Japanese Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    PubMed Central

    Chiba, Mitsuro; Nakane, Kunio; Takayama, Yuko; Sugawara, Kae; Ohno, Hideo; Ishii, Hajime; Tsuda, Satoko; Tsuji, Tsuyotoshi; Komatsu, Masafumi; Sugawara, Takeshi

    2016-01-01

    Context Plant-based diets (PBDs) are a healthy alternative to westernized diets. A semivegetarian diet, a PBD, has been shown to prevent a relapse in Crohn disease. However, there is no way to measure adherence to PBDs. Objective To develop a simple way of evaluating adherence to a PBD for Japanese patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Design PBD scores were assigned according to the frequency of consumption provided on a food-frequency questionnaire, obtained on hospitalization for 159 patients with ulcerative colitis and 70 patients with Crohn disease. Eight items considered to be preventive factors for IBD were scored positively, and 8 items considered to be IBD risk factors were scored negatively. The PBD score was calculated from the sum of plus and minus scores. Higher PBD scores indicated greater adherence to a PBD. The PBD scores were evaluated on hospitalization and 2 years after discharge for 22 patients with Crohn disease whose dietary pattern and prognosis were established. Main Outcome Measure Plant-Based Diet score. Results The PBD scores differed significantly, in descending order, by dietary type: pro-Japanese diet, mixed type, and pro-westernized diet (Wilcoxon/Kruskal-Wallis test). The PBD scores in the ulcerative colitis and Crohn disease groups were 10.9 ± 9.5 and 8.2 ± 8.2, respectively. For patients with Crohn disease, those with long-term remission and normal C-reactive protein concentration were significantly more likely to have PBD scores of 25 or greater than below 25 (χ2). Conclusion The PBD score is a valid assessment of PBD dietary adherence. PMID:27768566

  14. Editorial: risk scoring for colon cancer screening: validated, but still not ready for prime time.

    PubMed

    Lin, Otto S

    2011-06-01

    Risk stratification for colorectal cancer screening would allow us to use less expensive screening tests, such as sigmoidoscopy with or without fecal blood testing, on lower risk individuals, and reserve colonoscopy for those at higher risk. In this issue, Levitzky et al. validates a risk score that was previously developed by Imperiale et al., finding similar results among three ethnic groups. Risk scoring would detect 82-87% of proximal advanced neoplasia while decreasing colonoscopy use by 33-46%. However, before risk scoring is ready for widespread use, sigmoidoscopy access and performance issues need to be addressed, and we must be comfortable with missing some proximal neoplasms.

  15. Expanding role of the Madras Diabetes Research Foundation - Indian Diabetes Risk Score in clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Mohan, Viswanathan; Anbalagan, Viknesh Prabu

    2013-01-01

    The Indian Diabetes Risk Score was initially developed by the Madras Diabetes Research Foundation (MDRF-IDRS) to help detect undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the community. Soon it was found that the MDRF-IDRS could also help to predict incident diabetes, metabolic syndrome, coronary artery disease (CAD), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease as well as sleep disorders in the community. It helps to differentiate T2DM from non-T2DM. Finally, it also helps to identify those with CAD, peripheral vascular disease and neuropathy among those with T2DM. Thus, the MDRF-IDRS is a simple, virtually 'no cost' tool which is useful in several clinical and epidemiological settings.

  16. Risk scoring system to predict contrast induced nephropathy following percutaneous coronary intervention

    PubMed Central

    Victor, Suma M.; Gnanaraj, Anand; S., VijayaKumar; Deshmukh, Rajendra; Kandasamy, Mani; Janakiraman, Ezhilan; Pandurangi, Ulhas M.; Latchumanadhas, K.; Abraham, Georgi; Mullasari, Ajit S.

    2014-01-01

    Background Contrast induced nephropathy (CIN) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The aim of this study is to evaluate the collective probability of CIN in Indian population by developing a scoring system of several identified risk factors in patients undergoing PCI. Methods This is a prospective single center study of 1200 consecutive patients who underwent PCI from 2008 to 2011. Patients were randomized in 3:1 ratio into development (n = 900) and validation (n = 300) groups. CIN was defined as an increase of ≥25% and/or ≥0.5 mg/dl in serum creatinine at 48 hours after PCI when compared to baseline value. Seven independent predictors of CIN were identified using logistic regression analysis - amount of contrast, diabetes with microangiopathy, hypotension, peripheral vascular disease, albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and anemia. A formula was then developed to identify the probability of CIN using the logistic regression equation. Results The mean (±SD) age was 57.3 (±10.2) years. 83.6% were males. The total incidence of CIN was 9.7% in the development group. The total risk of renal replacement therapy in the study group is 1.1%. Mortality is 0.5%. The risk scoring model correlated well in the validation group (incidence of CIN was 8.7%, sensitivity 92.3%, specificity 82.1%, c statistic 0.95). Conclusion A simple risk scoring equation can be employed to predict the probability of CIN following PCI, applying it to each individual. More vigilant preventive measures can be applied to the high risk candidates. PMID:25443605

  17. Tuberculosis and risk of acute myocardial infarction: a propensity score-matched analysis.

    PubMed

    Huaman, M A; Kryscio, R J; Fichtenbaum, C J; Henson, D; Salt, E; Sterling, T R; Garvy, B A

    2017-02-16

    Several pathogens have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Whether this occurs with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is unclear. We assessed if tuberculosis disease increased the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified patients with tuberculosis index claims from a large de-identified database of ~15 million adults enrolled in a U.S. commercial insurance policy between 2008 and 2010. Tuberculosis patients were 1:1 matched to patients without tuberculosis claims using propensity scores. We compared the occurrence of index AMI claims between the tuberculosis and non-tuberculosis cohorts using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models. Data on 2026 patients with tuberculosis and 2026 propensity-matched patients without tuberculosis were included. AMI was more frequent in the tuberculosis cohort compared with the non-tuberculosis cohort, 67 (3·3%) vs. 32 (1·6%) AMI cases, respectively, P < 0·01. Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1·98, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1·3-3·0). The results were similar when the analysis was restricted to pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted HR 2·43, 95% CI 1·5-4·1). Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI. CVD risk assessment should be considered in tuberculosis patients. Mechanistic studies of tuberculosis and CVD are warranted.

  18. Heart Disease Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Related CDC Web Sites Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention ... this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Related CDC Web Sites Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention ...

  19. Efficacy of CPITN sextant scores for detection of periodontitis disease activity.

    PubMed

    Rams, T E; Listgarten, M A; Slots, J

    1996-04-01

    The relationship between CPITN sextant scores and periodontitis recurrence at individual tooth sites was evaluated in a longitudinal study in 83 treated adult periodontitis patients receiving systematic 3-month maintenance care. At baseline and semi-annual examinations over 36 months, CPITN scores were assigned to each dentition sextant using probing depths and gingival index scores, and relative periodontal attachment level was assessed at individual tooth sites using an occlusal reference stent. Periodontitis recurrence was defined as any periodontal site exhibiting either a probing depth increase of > or = 3 mm from baseline, or a probing depth increase of > or = 1 mm from baseline together with a loss of relative periodontal attachment of > or = 2 mm from baseline. 49 (59.0%) subjects developed periodontitis recurrence in 147 (29.8%) sextants at 181 (2.2%) individual periodontal sites during the 36-month study period. Baseline CPITN scores of 4 were more common in disease-active subjects than clinically-stable subjects (p = 0.003, t-test), and were associated with a statistically significant 1.66 relative risk of periodontitis recurrence within 36 months. CPITN sextant scores of 3 or 4 showed low specificity and low positive predictive values as indicators of periodontitis recurrence at > or = 1 individual sites within the affected sextant. In comparison, low CPITN sextant scores (0-2) provided high specificity (96.2-100%), high positive predictive values (99.5-100%), and a summary odds ratio of 24.2 as an indicator of clinical stability at all periodontal sites within a given dentition sextant. Changes in sextant scores for CPITN over 6-month periods showed no relationship with periodontitis recurrence at individual periodontal sites. This study suggests that while CPITN is inadequate for detection of periodontitis recurrence, low CPITN scores provide rapid presumptive identification of clinically-stable sextants in adult periodontitis patients on maintenance

  20. A four-year cardiovascular risk score for type 2 diabetic inpatients

    PubMed Central

    Ramírez-Prado, Dolores; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Carbonell-Torregrosa, María Ángeles; Martínez-Díaz, Ana María; Martínez-St. John, Damian Robert James; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

    2015-01-01

    As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status. The sample was selected randomly between 2010 and 2012. The primary outcome was time to cardiovascular disease. Other variables (at baseline) were gender, age, heart failure, renal failure, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin, smoking, admission for cardiovascular causes, pills per day, walking habit, fasting blood glucose and creatinine. A cardiovascular risk table was constructed based on the score to estimate the likelihood of cardiovascular disease. Risk groups were established and the c-statistic was calculated. Over a mean follow-up of 2.31 years, 39 patients had cardiovascular disease (34.8%, 95% CI [26.0–43.6%]). Predictive factors were gender, age, hypertension, renal failure, insulin, admission due to cardiovascular reasons and walking habit. The c-statistic was 0.734 (standard error: 0.049). After validation, this study will provide a tool for the primary health care services to enable the short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease after hospital discharge in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. PMID:26056618

  1. A Risk Score to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in an Elderly Spanish Mediterranean Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Bulló, Mònica; Costa, Bernardo; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel Ángel; Ibarrola-Jurado, Núria; Estruch, Ramon; Barrio, Francisco; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Introduction To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC). Results The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. Discussion We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire. PMID:22442692

  2. Population-standardized genetic risk score: the SNP-based method of choice for inherited risk assessment of prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Conran, Carly A; Na, Rong; Chen, Haitao; Jiang, Deke; Lin, Xiaoling; Zheng, S Lilly; Brendler, Charles B; Xu, Jianfeng

    2016-01-01

    Several different approaches are available to clinicians for determining prostate cancer (PCa) risk. The clinical validity of various PCa risk assessment methods utilizing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has been established; however, these SNP-based methods have not been compared. The objective of this study was to compare the three most commonly used SNP-based methods for PCa risk assessment. Participants were men (n = 1654) enrolled in a prospective study of PCa development. Genotypes of 59 PCa risk-associated SNPs were available in this cohort. Three methods of calculating SNP-based genetic risk scores (GRSs) were used for the evaluation of individual disease risk such as risk allele count (GRS-RAC), weighted risk allele count (GRS-wRAC), and population-standardized genetic risk score (GRS-PS). Mean GRSs were calculated, and performances were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive predictive value (PPV). All SNP-based methods were found to be independently associated with PCa (all P < 0.05; hence their clinical validity). The mean GRSs in men with or without PCa using GRS-RAC were 55.15 and 53.46, respectively, using GRS-wRAC were 7.42 and 6.97, respectively, and using GRS-PS were 1.12 and 0.84, respectively (all P < 0.05 for differences between patients with or without PCa). All three SNP-based methods performed similarly in discriminating PCa from non-PCa based on AUC and in predicting PCa risk based on PPV (all P > 0.05 for comparisons between the three methods), and all three SNP-based methods had a significantly higher AUC than family history (all P < 0.05). Results from this study suggest that while the three most commonly used SNP-based methods performed similarly in discriminating PCa from non-PCa at the population level, GRS-PS is the method of choice for risk assessment at the individual level because its value (where 1.0 represents average population risk) can be easily interpreted regardless

  3. Adjusted Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index Score as a Risk Measure of Perioperative Mortality before Cancer Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Chun-Ming; Yin, Wen-Yao; Wei, Chang-Kao; Wu, Chin-Chia; Su, Yu-Chieh; Yu, Chia-Hui; Lee, Ching-Chih

    2016-01-01

    Background Identification of patients at risk of death from cancer surgery should aid in preoperative preparation. The purpose of this study is to assess and adjust the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) to identify cancer patients with increased risk of perioperative mortality. Methods We identified 156,151 patients undergoing surgery for one of the ten common cancers between 2007 and 2011 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Half of the patients were randomly selected, and a multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop an adjusted-ACCI score for estimating the risk of 90-day mortality by variables from the original ACCI. The score was validated. The association between the score and perioperative mortality was analyzed. Results The adjusted-ACCI score yield a better discrimination on mortality after cancer surgery than the original ACCI score, with c-statics of 0.75 versus 0.71. Over 80 years of age, 70–80 years, and renal disease had the strongest impact on mortality, hazard ratios 8.40, 3.63, and 3.09 (P < 0.001), respectively. The overall 90-day mortality rates in the entire cohort varied from 0.9%, 2.9%, 7.0%, and 13.2% in four risk groups stratifying by the adjusted-ACCI score; the adjusted hazard ratio for score 4–7, 8–11, and ≥ 12 was 2.84, 6.07, and 11.17 (P < 0.001), respectively, in 90-day mortality compared to score 0–3. Conclusions The adjusted-ACCI score helps to identify patients with a higher risk of 90-day mortality after cancer surgery. It might be particularly helpful for preoperative evaluation of patients over 80 years of age. PMID:26848761

  4. Relationship Between Forced Vital Capacity and Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score Beyond the Presence of Metabolic Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Hyung Koo; Park, Hye Yun; Jeong, Byeong-Ho; Koh, Won-Jung; Lim, Seong Yong

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Impaired lung function is a risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) events. However, it has not been well established whether FVC reduction even within normal range is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and whether reduced FVC is an independent relationship of CVD irrespective of metabolic syndrome. Thus, we aimed to explore the relationship between FVC and CV-event risk using the FRS beyond the presence of metabolic syndrome or abdominal obesity in a representative Korean population based on data from the nationwide Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV). The study population included 9688 subjects ≥ 30 years of age with no previous diagnosis of CVD and obstructive lung disease. Using a logistic regression model and area under the curve (AUC) analysis, we evaluated the relationship between FVC quintiles and CV-event risk using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS; ≥ 10% or ≥ 20%). In addition, we examined the effect of FVC on CV-event risk based on the presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and abdominal obesity. After adjusting for covariates, comparison of subjects in the lowest FVC (% pred) quintile (Q1) with those in the highest quintile (Q5) yielded an odds ratio (OR) of 2.27 (95% CI, 1.91–2.71) for intermediate and high risk, and 2.89 (95% CI, 2.31–3.61) for high risk. The ORs for cardiovascular risk using FRS also increased irrespective of the presence of abdominal obesity and MetS without significant interaction. Furthermore, the addition of FVC status to MetS status and abdominal obesity status significantly increased the AUC of the model predicting CV-event risk (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001). Our study demonstrates that FVC is inversely associated with 10-year CV-event risk, irrespective of MetS and abdominal obesity in the general population without obstructive lung disease. Furthermore, the addition of FVC to MetS or abdominal obesity increased prediction of CVD event risks, implying a potential

  5. The PROPKD Score: A New Algorithm to Predict Renal Survival in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

    PubMed Central

    Cornec-Le Gall, Emilie; Audrézet, Marie-Pierre; Rousseau, Annick; Hourmant, Maryvonne; Renaudineau, Eric; Charasse, Christophe; Morin, Marie-Pascale; Moal, Marie-Christine; Dantal, Jacques; Wehbe, Bassem; Perrichot, Régine; Frouget, Thierry; Vigneau, Cécile; Potier, Jérôme; Jousset, Philippe; Guillodo, Marie-Paule; Siohan, Pascale; Terki, Nazim; Sawadogo, Théophile; Legrand, Didier; Menoyo-Calonge, Victorio; Benarbia, Seddik; Besnier, Dominique; Longuet, Hélène; Férec, Claude

    2016-01-01

    The course of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) varies among individuals, with some reaching ESRD before 40 years of age and others never requiring RRT. In this study, we developed a prognostic model to predict renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD on the basis of genetic and clinical data. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1341 patients from the Genkyst cohort and evaluated the influence of clinical and genetic factors on renal survival. Multivariate survival analysis identified four variables that were significantly associated with age at ESRD onset, and a scoring system from 0 to 9 was developed as follows: being male: 1 point; hypertension before 35 years of age: 2 points; first urologic event before 35 years of age: 2 points; PKD2 mutation: 0 points; nontruncating PKD1 mutation: 2 points; and truncating PKD1 mutation: 4 points. Three risk categories were subsequently defined as low risk (0–3 points), intermediate risk (4–6 points), and high risk (7–9 points) of progression to ESRD, with corresponding median ages for ESRD onset of 70.6, 56.9, and 49 years, respectively. Whereas a score ≤3 eliminates evolution to ESRD before 60 years of age with a negative predictive value of 81.4%, a score >6 forecasts ESRD onset before 60 years of age with a positive predictive value of 90.9%. This new prognostic score accurately predicts renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD and may enable the personalization of therapeutic management of ADPKD. PMID:26150605

  6. Development of a Mediterranean diet score adapted to Japan and its relation to obesity risk

    PubMed Central

    Kanauchi, Masao; Kanauchi, Kimiko

    2016-01-01

    Background The Mediterranean diet (MD) is well known as a healthy diet that protects against several chronic diseases. However, there is no appropriate and easy index to assess adherence to the MD pattern in Japan. Objective The aim of this study was to develop a novel instrument to measure MD adherence adapted to a Japanese diet and to examine its association with overweight/obesity risk. Methods A cross-sectional nutritional survey provided the data for construction of a novel MD score. In total, 1,048 subjects who were employees and university students, aged 18–68 years (645 men and 403 women), completed a 58-item brief-type self-administered dietary history questionnaire. We constructed a Japanese-adapted MD score (jMD score) focusing on 13 components. Adherence to the jMD was categorized as low (score 0–4), moderate (5–7), or high (8–13). Results Men had higher jMD scores than women, and adherence to the jMD score increased with age. Only 11.6% of subjects showed high adherence to the jMD, whereas 29.6% showed low adherence. A higher jMD adherence was associated with a higher intake of favorable nutrients with the exception of salt. The jMD adherence was significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity for the highest category compared with lowest category (odds ratio [OR] 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30–0.85, p-trend=0.017) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and hypertension. A two-point increment in jMD score was related to a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity with an odds ratio of 0.76 (95% CI 0.65–0.90, p=0.002). Conclusions Our novel jMD score confirmed reasonable associations with nutrient intakes, and higher MD adherence was associated with a lower prevalence of overweight/obesity. PMID:27806831

  7. Assessment of 2013 AHA/ACC ASCVD risk scores with behavioral characteristics of an urban cohort in India

    PubMed Central

    Menon, Vidya P.; Edathadathil, Fabia; Sathyapalan, Dipu; Moni, Merlin; Don, Ann; Balachandran, Sabarish; Pushpa, Binny; Prasanna, Preetha; Sivaram, Nithu; Nair, Anupama; Vinod, Nithu; Jayaprasad, Rekha; Menon, Veena

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death and disability in India. Early and sustained exposure to behavioral risk factors leads to development of CVDs. The aim of this study was to determine the baseline risk of a “hard CVD event” in subjects attending comprehensive health clinic and assess behavioral characteristics in “at risk” population. Using WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance modified questionnaire, prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and risk factors was estimated in this cross-sectional study of 4507 subjects. Baseline cardiovascular risk was determined using Framingham risk score (FRS) and American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) algorithms. Modifiable behavior associated with high CVD risk was assessed. Among 40 to 59-year olds, ASCVD risk tool derived both a 10-year and lifetime risk score, which were used to stratify the cohort into 3 risk groups, namely, a high 10-year and high lifetime, a low 10-year and high lifetime, and a low 10-year and low lifetime risks. Dyslipidemia (30.6%), hypertension (25.5%), diabetes mellitus (20%), and obstructive airway disorders (17.6%) were most prevalent NCDs in our cohort. The ASCVD score stratified 26.1% subjects into high 10-yr and 59.5% into high lifetime risk while FRS classified 17.2% into high 10-year risk. Compared with FRS, the ASCVD risk estimator identified a larger proportion of subjects “at risk” of developing CVD. A high prevalence of alcohol use (38.4%), decreased intake of fruits and vegetables (96.2%) and low physical activity (58%) were observed in “at risk” population. Logistic regression analysis showed that in 40 to 59-year group, regular and occasional drinkers were 8.5- and 3.1-fold more likely to be in high 10-year and high lifetime ASCVD risk category than in low 10-year and low lifetime risk group. Similarly, regular drinkers and occasional drinkers were 2

  8. Lifetime Risks of Cardiovascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Berry, Jarett D.; Dyer, Alan; Cai, Xuan; Garside, Daniel B.; Ning, Hongyan; Thomas, Avis; Greenland, Philip; Van Horn, Linda; Tracy, Russell P.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND The lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease have not been reported across the age spectrum in black adults and white adults. METHODS We conducted a meta-analysis at the individual level using data from 18 cohort studies involving a total of 257,384 black men and women and white men and women whose risk factors for cardiovascular disease were measured at the ages of 45, 55, 65, and 75 years. Blood pressure, cholesterol level, smoking status, and diabetes status were used to stratify participants according to risk factors into five mutually exclusive categories. The remaining lifetime risks of cardiovascular events were estimated for participants in each category at each age, with death free of cardiovascular disease treated as a competing event. RESULTS We observed marked differences in the lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease across risk-factor strata. Among participants who were 55 years of age, those with an optimal risk-factor profile (total cholesterol level, <180 mg per deciliter [4.7 mmol per liter]; blood pressure, <120 mm Hg systolic and 80 mm Hg diastolic; nonsmoking status; and nondiabetic status) had substantially lower risks of death from cardiovascular disease through the age of 80 years than participants with two or more major risk factors (4.7% vs. 29.6% among men, 6.4% vs. 20.5% among women). Those with an optimal risk-factor profile also had lower lifetime risks of fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction (3.6% vs. 37.5% among men, <1% vs. 18.3% among women) and fatal or nonfatal stroke (2.3% vs. 8.3% among men, 5.3% vs. 10.7% among women). Similar trends within risk-factor strata were observed among blacks and whites and across diverse birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Differences in risk-factor burden translate into marked differences in the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease, and these differences are consistent across race and birth cohorts. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.) PMID

  9. Risk factors for periodontal disease.

    PubMed

    Genco, Robert J; Borgnakke, Wenche S

    2013-06-01

    Risk factors play an important role in an individual's response to periodontal infection. Identification of these risk factors helps to target patients for prevention and treatment, with modification of risk factors critical to the control of periodontal disease. Shifts in our understanding of periodontal disease prevalence, and advances in scientific methodology and statistical analysis in the last few decades, have allowed identification of several major systemic risk factors for periodontal disease. The first change in our thinking was the understanding that periodontal disease is not universal, but that severe forms are found only in a portion of the adult population who show abnormal susceptibility. Analysis of risk factors and the ability to statistically adjust and stratify populations to eliminate the effects of confounding factors have allowed identification of independent risk factors. These independent but modifiable, risk factors for periodontal disease include lifestyle factors, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. They also include diseases and unhealthy conditions such as diabetes mellitus, obesity, metabolic syndrome, osteoporosis, and low dietary calcium and vitamin D. These risk factors are modifiable and their management is a major component of the contemporary care of many periodontal patients. Genetic factors also play a role in periodontal disease and allow one to target individuals for prevention and early detection. The role of genetic factors in aggressive periodontitis is clear. However, although genetic factors (i.e., specific genes) are strongly suspected to have an association with chronic adult periodontitis, there is as yet no clear evidence for this in the general population. It is important to pursue efforts to identify genetic factors associated with chronic periodontitis because such factors have potential in identifying patients who have a high susceptibility for development of this disease. Many of the systemic risk factors

  10. Simple Scoring System and Artificial Neural Network for Knee Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: A Cross-Sectional Study

    PubMed Central

    Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Soo Beom; Oh, Ein; Park, Jee Soo

    2016-01-01

    Background Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease of adults worldwide. Since the treatments for advanced radiographic knee OA are limited, clinicians face a significant challenge of identifying patients who are at high risk of OA in a timely and appropriate way. Therefore, we developed a simple self-assessment scoring system and an improved artificial neural network (ANN) model for knee OA. Methods The Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES V-1) data were used to develop a scoring system and ANN for radiographic knee OA. A logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of the scoring system. The ANN was constructed using 1777 participants and validated internally on 888 participants in the KNHANES V-1. The predictors of the scoring system were selected as the inputs of the ANN. External validation was performed using 4731 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic was calculated to compare the prediction models. Results The scoring system and ANN were built using the independent predictors including sex, age, body mass index, educational status, hypertension, moderate physical activity, and knee pain. In the internal validation, both scoring system and ANN predicted radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.73 versus 0.81, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.88 versus 0.94, p<0.001) with good discriminative ability. In the external validation, both scoring system and ANN showed lower discriminative ability in predicting radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.62 versus 0.67, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.70 versus 0.76, p<0.001). Conclusions The self-assessment scoring system may be useful for identifying the adults at high risk for knee OA. The performance of the scoring system is improved significantly by the ANN. We provided an ANN calculator to simply predict the knee OA risk. PMID:26859664

  11. Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS)

    PubMed Central

    Dominguez, Ligia J.; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Basterra-Gortari, Francisco Javier; Gea, Alfredo; Barbagallo, Mario; Martínez-González, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS), which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN (“Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra”) longitudinal study. Methods We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points) were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points). Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of T2DM. Results We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25–39 points) vs. low (11–24) category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40–60) vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019). Conclusions The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve

  12. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R; Ngu, Jing H; Schultz, Michael; Abazi, Roseta; Zakko, Liam; Thornton, Susan; Wilkinson, Kelly; Khor, Cristopher J L; Murray, Iain A; Laursen, Stig B

    2017-01-01

    Objective To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Design International multicentre prospective study. Setting Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania. Participants 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Main outcome measures Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined. Results The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65

  13. Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) Preoperative Score Versus Postoperative Score (CAPRA-S): ability to predict cancer progression and decision-making regarding adjuvant therapy after radical prostatectomy.

    PubMed

    Seo, Won Ik; Kang, Pil Moon; Kang, Dong Il; Yoon, Jang Ho; Kim, Wansuk; Chung, Jae Il

    2014-09-01

    The University of California, San Francisco, announced in 2011 Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical (CAPRA-S) score which included pathologic data, but there were no results for comparing preoperative predictors with the CAPRA-S score. We evaluated the validation of the CAPRA-S score in our institution and compare the result with the preoperative progression predictor, CAPRA score. Data of 130 patients were reviewed who underwent radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer from 2008 to 2013. Performance of CAPRA-S score in predicting progression free probabilities was assessed through Kaplan Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression test. Additionally, prediction probability was compared with preoperative CAPRA score by logistic regression analysis. Comparing CAPRA score, the CAPRA-S score showed improved prediction ability for 5 yr progression free survival (concordance index 0.80, P = 0.04). After risk group stratification, 3 group model of CAPRA-S was superior than 3 group model of CAPRA for 3-yr progression free survival and 5-yr progression free survival (concordance index 0.74 vs. 0.70, 0.77 vs. 0.71, P < 0.001). Finally the CAPRA-S score was the more ideal predictor concerned with adjuvant therapy than the CAPRA score through decision curve analysis. The CPARA-S score is a useful predictor for disease progression after radical prostatectomy.

  14. A Risk Score for Fluconazole Failure among Patients with Candidemia.

    PubMed

    Ostrosky-Zeichner, Luis; Harrington, Rachel; Azie, Nkechi; Yang, Hongbo; Li, Nanxin; Zhao, Jing; Koo, Valerie; Wu, Eric Q

    2017-03-06

    Background: This study aimed to develop a prediction model to identify patients with candidemia at high risk of failing fluconazole.Methods: Adult patients in the US with candidemia who received fluconazole during hospitalization were selected from the Cerner Health Facts® database (04/2004-03/2013). Fluconazole failure was defined as switching/adding another antifungal, positive Candida culture ≥10 days after fluconazole initiation, or death during hospitalization. Patients were randomized into modeling and validation samples. Using the modeling sample, a least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator regression was used to select risk predictors of fluconazole failure (demographics, Candida species, initiation of fluconazole before positive culture and after admission, and comorbidities, procedures, and treatments during the 6-months before admission to fluconazole initiation). The prediction model was evaluated using the validation sample.Results: Of 987 identified patients (average age of 61 years, 51% male, and 72% white), 49% did and 51% did not fail fluconazole. Of those who failed, 70% switched or added another antifungal, 21% had a second positive Candida test, and 42% died during hospitalization. Nine risk factors were included in the prediction model: days to start fluconazole after admission, Candida glabrata or krusei infection, hematological malignancies, venous thromboembolism (VTE), enteral nutrition, use of non-operative intubation/irrigation, mechanical ventilation, and other antifungal use. All but VTE were associated with a higher risk of failure. The model's c-statistic was 0.65, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test p=0.23.Summary: This prediction model identified patients with a high risk of fluconazole failure, illustrating the potential value and feasibility of personalizing candidemia treatment.

  15. Risk-scoring models for individualized prediction of overall survival in low-grade and high-grade endometrial cancer

    PubMed Central

    AlHilli, Mariam M.; Mariani, Andrea; Bakkum-Gamez, Jamie N.; Dowdy, Sean C.; Weaver, Amy L.; Peethambaram, Preema P.; Keeney, Gary L.; Cliby, William A.; Podratz, Karl C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Overall survival (OS) in endometrial cancer (EC) is dependent on patient-, disease-, and treatment-specific risk factors. Comprehensive risk-scoring models were developed to estimate OS in low-grade and high-grade EC. Methods Patients undergoing primary surgery for EC from 1999 through 2008 were stratified histologically according to the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) as either (i) low grade: grades 1 and 2 endometrioid EC or (ii) high grade: grade 3, including non-endometrioid EC. Associations between patient-, pathological-, and treatment-specific risk factors and OS starting on postoperative day 30 were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. Factors independently associated with OS were used to construct nomograms and risk-scoring models. Results Eligible patients (N= 1281) included 925 low-grade and 356 high-grade patients; estimated 5-year OSs were 87.0% and 51.5%, respectively. Among patients alive at last follow-up, median follow-up was 5.0 (low grade) and 4.6 years (high grade), respectively. In low-grade patients, independent factors predictive of compromised OS included age, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary dysfunction, stage, tumor diameter, pelvic lymph node status, and grade 2 or higher 30-day postoperative complications. Among high-grade patients, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, stage, lymphovascular space invasion, adjuvant therapy, para-aortic nodal status, and cervical stromal invasion were independent predictors of compromised OS. The two risk-scoring models/nomograms had excellent calibration and discrimination (unbiased c-indices = 0.803 and 0.759). Conclusion Patients with low-grade and high-grade EC can be counseled regarding their predicted OS using the proposed risk-scoring models. This may facilitate institution of personalized treatment algorithms, surveillance strategies, and lifestyle interventions. PMID:24690476

  16. Validation of the Korean Version of the Lewy Body Composite Risk Score (K-LBCRS).

    PubMed

    Ryu, Hui Jin; Kim, Minyoung; Moon, Yeonsil; Choi, Yeji; Han, Jee-Young; Galvin, James E; Han, Seol-Heui

    2017-01-01

    The Lewy body composite risk score (LBCRS) is a useful clinical screening tool to help determine whether the dementia is related to Lewy body pathology. The purpose of this study is to verify reliability, validity, and diagnostic usefulness of Korean version of LBCRS (K-LBCRS). CDR-sum of boxes, Mini-Mental State Examination, and standardized scales related to cognition, mood, behavior, and motor function were administered to a total of 107 subjects, including 30 dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), 54 Alzheimer's disease (AD), and 23 cognitively normal elderly people and their collateral informants. Internal consistency of the K-LBCRS was good with Cronbach's alpha of 0.85, and concurrent validity was also satisfactory, with K-LBCRS correlating highly with CDR-SB and other scales. The test-retest reliability was very high with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.97. The mean scores of K-LBCRS were significantly different among three groups, with DLB (6.2±2.4), AD (1.4±1.3), and controls (0.3±0.6). We identified a cut-off score of 3 as best to differentiate between DLB and AD, having AUC of 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-1.00), sensitivity 97%, specificity 83%, positive predictive value 76%, negative predictive value 98%, which is the same score suggested in the original study. This study shows K-LBCRS as a new useful screening tool for Korean DLB patients in clinical settings.

  17. Exploration of a Polygenic Risk Score for Alcohol Consumption: A Longitudinal Analysis from the ALSPAC Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Simpkin, Andrew J.; Haycock, Philip C.; Dudbridge, Frank; Zuccolo, Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Background Uncertainty remains about the true extent by which alcohol consumption causes a number of health outcomes. Genetic variants, or combinations of variants built into a polygenic risk score (PGRS), can be used in an instrumental variable framework to assess causality between a phenotype and disease outcome of interest, a method known as Mendelian randomisation (MR). We aimed to identify genetic variants involved in the aetiology of alcohol consumption, and develop a PGRS for alcohol. Methods Repeated measures of alcohol consumption from mothers and their offspring were collected as part of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We tested the association between 89 SNPs (identified from either published GWAS data or from functional literature) and repeated measures of alcohol consumption, separately in mothers (from ages 28–48) and offspring (from ages 15–21) who had ever reported drinking. We modelled log units of alcohol using a linear mixed model and calculated beta coefficients for each SNP separately. Cross-validation was used to determine an allelic score for alcohol consumption, and the AVENGEME algorithm employed to estimate variance of the trait explained. Results Following correction for multiple testing, one SNP (rs1229984) showed evidence for association with alcohol consumption (β = -0.177, SE = 0.042, p = <0.0001) in the mothers. No SNPs showed evidence for association in the offspring after correcting for multiple testing. The optimal allelic score was generated using p-value cut offs of 0.5 and 0.05 for the mothers and offspring respectively. These scores explained 0.3% and 0.7% of the variance. Conclusion Our PGRS explains a modest amount of the variance in alcohol consumption and larger sample sizes would be required to use our PGRS in an MR framework. PMID:27902751

  18. Chagas Disease Risk in Texas

    PubMed Central

    Sarkar, Sahotra; Strutz, Stavana E.; Frank, David M.; Rivaldi, Chissa–Louise; Sissel, Blake; Sánchez–Cordero, Victor

    2010-01-01

    Background Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a serious public health concern in many areas of Latin America, including México. It is also endemic in Texas with an autochthonous canine cycle, abundant vectors (Triatoma species) in many counties, and established domestic and peridomestic cycles which make competent reservoirs available throughout the state. Yet, Chagas disease is not reportable in Texas, blood donor screening is not mandatory, and the serological profiles of human and canine populations remain unknown. The purpose of this analysis was to provide a formal risk assessment, including risk maps, which recommends the removal of these lacunae. Methods and Findings The spatial relative risk of the establishment of autochthonous Chagas disease cycles in Texas was assessed using a five–stage analysis. 1. Ecological risk for Chagas disease was established at a fine spatial resolution using a maximum entropy algorithm that takes as input occurrence points of vectors and environmental layers. The analysis was restricted to triatomine vector species for which new data were generated through field collection and through collation of post–1960 museum records in both México and the United States with sufficiently low georeferenced error to be admissible given the spatial resolution of the analysis (1 arc–minute). The new data extended the distribution of vector species to 10 new Texas counties. The models predicted that Triatoma gerstaeckeri has a large region of contiguous suitable habitat in the southern United States and México, T. lecticularia has a diffuse suitable habitat distribution along both coasts of the same region, and T. sanguisuga has a disjoint suitable habitat distribution along the coasts of the United States. The ecological risk is highest in south Texas. 2. Incidence–based relative risk was computed at the county level using the Bayesian Besag–York–Mollié model and post–1960 T. cruzi incidence data. This risk

  19. Influence of Ethnicity on the Accuracy of Non-Invasive Scores Predicting Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Ming-Feng; Yki-Järvinen, Hannele; Bian, Hua; Lin, Huan-Dong; Yan, Hong-Mei; Chang, Xin-Xia; Zhou, You; Gao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can predict risks for diabetes, cardiovascular disease and advanced liver disease in the general population. We aimed to establish a non-invasive score for prediction of NAFLD in Han Chinese, the largest ethnic group in the world, and detect whether ethnicity influences the accuracy of such a score. Methods Liver fat content (LFAT) was measured by quantitative ultrasound in 3548 subjects in the Shanghai Changfeng Community and a Chinese score was created using multivariate logistic regression analyses. This new score was internally validated in Chinese and externally in Finns. Its diagnostic performance was compared to the NAFLD liver fat score, fatty liver index (FLI) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI) developed in Finns, Italians and Koreans. We also analyzed how obesity related to LFAT measured by 1H-MRS in 79 Finns and 118 Chinese with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Results The metabolic syndrome and T2D, fasting serum insulin, body mass index (BMI) and AST/ALT ratio were independent predictors of NAFLD in Chinese. The AUROC in the Chinese validation cohort was 0.76 (0.73–0.78) and in Finns 0.73 (0.68–0.78) (p<0.0001). 43%, 27%, 32% and 42% of Chinese had NAFLD when determined by the Chinese score, NAFLD liver fat score (p<0.001 vs. Chinese score), FLI (p<0.001) and HSI (NS). For any given BMI and waist circumference, the Chinese had a markedly higher LFAT than the Finns. Conclusion The predictors of NAFLD in Han Chinese are as in Europids but the Chinese have more LFAT for any given degree of obesity than Europids. Ethnicity needs to be considered when NAFLD is predicted using risk scores. PMID:27579785

  20. Association between Knee Osteoarthritis, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and the Framingham Risk Score in South Koreans: A Cross-Sectional Study

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ho Sun; Shin, Joon-Shik; Lee, Jinho; Lee, Yoon Jae; Kim, Me-riong; Bae, Young-Hyeon; Park, Ki Byung; Lee, Eun-Jung; Kim, Joo-Hee

    2016-01-01

    Background Osteoarthritis is a significant burden on personal health and for social cost, and its prevalence is rising. Recent research has revealed an association between osteoarthritis and cardiovascular disease, and this study uses the Framingham risk score (FRS), which is widely used as a composite index of cardiovascular risk factors, to investigate the association between osteoarthritis and various cardiovascular risk factors. Methods A total 9,514 participants aged 50 years or older who received knee X-ray diagnosis of the 5th Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (total surveyees = 24,173) released by the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was included for analysis. Knee osteoarthritis patients were defined as participants with K-L grade ≥2 on knee X-ray regardless of knee pain. The association between major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking habits), FRS, and knee osteoarthritis was analyzed, adjusting for various covariates. Results Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in Koreans aged ≥50 years was 36.6%, and higher in women (men: 24.9%, women: 45.4%). Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in participants with hypertension was significantly higher than those without hypertension (fully adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.48). Knee osteoarthritis prevalence was also higher in participants with impaired fasting glucose or diabetes than those without (age, sex adjusted OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.00–1.41). Also, OR values increased statistically significantly with FRS as a continuous variable (fully adjusted OR 1.007; 95% CI 1.00–1.01). Conclusions Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis was associated with hypertension and diabetes, which are major cardiovascular risk factors, and the FRS. Further studies on FRS pertaining to its relationship with osteoarthritis are warranted. PMID:27764239

  1. Calibration of unified Parkinson's disease rating scale scores to Movement Disorder Society-unified Parkinson's disease rating scale scores.

    PubMed

    Goetz, Christopher G; Stebbins, Glenn T; Tilley, Barbara C

    2012-09-01

    The aim of this study was to develop formulas to convert the UPDRS to Movement Disorder Society (MDS)-UPDRS scores. The MDS-UPDRS is a revision of the UPDRS with sound clinimetric properties. Reliable formulas to recalculate UPDRS scores into MDS-UPDRS equivalents are pivotal to the practical transition and definitive adoption of the MDS-UPDRS. UPDRS and MDS-UPDRS scores were collected on 875 PD patients. A developmental sample was used to regress UPDRS scores on corresponding MDS-UPDRS scores based on three H & Y groupings (I/II, III, and IV/V). Regression weighting factors and intercept terms provided formulas for UPDRS conversions to be tested in a validation sample. Concordance between the true MDS-UPDRS Part scores and those derived from the formulas was compared using Bland-Altman's plots and Lin's concordance coefficient (LCC). Significant concordance between UPDRS-estimated MDS-UPDRS scores was achieved for Parts II (Motor Experiences of Daily Living) (LCC = 0.93) and III (Motor Examination) (LCC = 0.97). The formulas resulted in mean differences between the true MDS-UPDRS and estimated MDS-UPDRS scores of less than 1 point for both Parts II and III. Concordance was not achieved for Parts I and IV (Non-motor Experiences of Daily Living and Complications of Therapy). Formulas allow archival UPDRS Parts II and III individual patient data to be accurately transferred to MDS-UPDRS scores. Because Part I collects data on much more extensive information than the UPDRS, and because Part IV is structured differently in the two versions, old ratings for these parts cannot be converted. © 2012 Movement Disorder Society.

  2. Developing a Conceptually Equivalent Type 2 Diabetes Risk Score for Indian Gujaratis in the UK

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Naina; Stone, Margaret; Barber, Shaun; Gray, Laura; Davies, Melanie; Khunti, Kamlesh

    2016-01-01

    Aims. To apply and assess the suitability of a model consisting of commonly used cross-cultural translation methods to achieve a conceptually equivalent Gujarati language version of the Leicester self-assessment type 2 diabetes risk score. Methods. Implementation of the model involved multiple stages, including pretesting of the translated risk score by conducting semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of volunteers. Interviews were conducted on an iterative basis to enable findings to inform translation revisions and to elicit volunteers' ability to self-complete and understand the risk score. Results. The pretest stage was an essential component involving recruitment of a diverse sample of 18 Gujarati volunteers, many of whom gave detailed suggestions for improving the instructions for the calculation of the risk score and BMI table. Volunteers found the standard and level of Gujarati accessible and helpful in understanding the concept of risk, although many of the volunteers struggled to calculate their BMI. Conclusions. This is the first time that a multicomponent translation model has been applied to the translation of a type 2 diabetes risk score into another language. This project provides an invaluable opportunity to share learning about the transferability of this model for translation of self-completed risk scores in other health conditions. PMID:27703985

  3. Alzheimer's disease: risk and protection.

    PubMed

    Jorm, A F

    1997-10-20

    Only four risk factors for Alzheimer's disease can be regarded as confirmed--old age, family history of dementia, apo-E genotype and Down syndrome. Other disputed risk factors with some supporting evidence include ethnic group, head trauma and aluminium in drinking water. Possible protection factors, such as anti-inflammatory drugs, oestrogen replacement therapy and a high education level, are of great interest because they suggest possible preventive action.

  4. Risk score predicts high‐grade prostate cancer in DNA‐methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies

    PubMed Central

    Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W.; Stewart, Grant D.; Epstein, Jonathan I.; Harrison, David J.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over‐diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA‐methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation‐positive men, DNA‐methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high‐grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. METHODS Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation‐positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high‐grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. RESULTS Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA‐methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high‐grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation‐positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high‐grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low‐grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision‐making tool for repeat biopsy

  5. Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of

  6. Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk.

    PubMed

    Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

    2015-01-01

    Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998-2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated.

  7. Circadian Clock-Related Genetic Risk Scores and Risk of Placental Abruption

    PubMed Central

    Qiu, Chunfang; Gelaye, Bizu; Denis, Marie; Tadesse, Mahlet G.; Fernandez, Miguel Angel Luque; Enquobahrie, Daniel A.; Ananth, Cande V.; Sanchez, Sixto E.; Williams, Michelle A.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The circadian clock plays an important role in several aspects of female reproductive biology. Evidence linking circadian clock-related genes to pregnancy outcomes has been inconsistent. We sought to examine whether variations in single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of circadian clock genes are associated with PA risk. Methods Maternal blood samples were collected from 470 PA case and 473 controls. Genotyping was performed using the Illumina Cardio-MetaboChip platform. We examined 119 SNPs in 13 candidate genes known to control circadian rhythms (e.g., CRY2, ARNTL, and RORA). Univariate and penalized logistic regression models were fit to estimate odds ratios (ORs); and the combined effect of multiple SNPs on PA risk was estimated using a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS). Results A common SNP in the RORA gene (rs2899663) was associated with a 21% reduced odds of PA (P<0.05). The odds of PA increased with increasing wGRS (Ptrend< 0.001). The corresponding ORs were 1.00, 1.83, 2.81 and 5.13 across wGRS quartiles. Participants in the highest wGRS quartile had a 5.13-fold (95% confidence interval: 3.21–8.21) higher odds of PA compared to those in the lowest quartile. Although the test for interaction was not significant, the odds of PA was substantially elevated for preeclamptics with the highest wGRS quartile (OR=14.44, 95%CI: 6.62–31.53) compared to normotensive women in the lowest wGRS quartile. Discussion Genetic variants in circadian rhythm genes may be associated with PA risk. Larger studies are needed to corroborate these findings and to further elucidate the pathogenesis of this important obstetrical complication. PMID:26515929

  8. Inverse correlation of genetic risk score with age at onset in bout-onset and progressive-onset multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Sorosina, Melissa; Esposito, Federica; Guaschino, Clara; Clarelli, Ferdinando; Barizzone, Nadia; Osiceanu, Ana Maria; Brambilla, Paola; Mascia, Elisabetta; Cavalla, Paola; Gallo, Paolo; Martinelli, Vittorio; Leone, Maurizio; Comi, Giancarlo; D'Alfonso, Sandra; Martinelli Boneschi, Filippo

    2015-10-01

    We correlated the weighted genetic risk score measured using 107 established susceptibility variants for multiple sclerosis (MS) with the age at onset in bout-onset (BOMS, n=906) and progressive-onset MS Italian patients (PrMS) (n=544). We observed an opposite relationship in the two disease courses: a higher weighted genetic risk score was associated with an earlier age at onset in BOMS (rho= -0.1; p=5 × 10(-3)) and a later age at onset in PrMS cases (rho=0.07; p=0.15) (p of difference of regression=1.4 × 10(-2)). These findings suggest that established MS risk variants anticipate the onset of the inflammatory phase, while they have no impact on, or even delay, the onset of the progressive phase.

  9. Heart Disease Risk Factors You Can Control

    MedlinePlus

    ... and Stroke Heart disease risk factors you can control Did you know? In women, high triglycerides combined ... information on Heart disease risk factors you can control Read more from womenshealth.gov Heart Disease Fact ...

  10. Inoculation and scoring methods for rice sheath blight disease.

    PubMed

    Jia, Yulin; Liu, Guangjie; Park, Dong-Soo; Yang, Yinong

    2013-01-01

    Sheath blight disease of rice caused by the soilborne fungal pathogen Rhizoctonia solani has been a major disease of rice with a serious threat to stable rice production worldwide. Although various cultural practices have been used to manage the disease, it is advantageous and important to screen rice germplasm and identify resistant rice cultivars for more effective disease control. Recent advances in methods for the fungal inoculation and disease evaluation have enabled a better measurement of host resistance by minimizing confounding factors from plant architectures and environmental conditions. This chapter introduces five such methods: (1) detached leaf method; (2) micro-chamber method; (3) mist-chamber method; (4) parafilm sachet method; and (5) aluminum foil method. These methods are useful for screening and evaluating disease reactions of rice germplasm and facilitating the genetic mapping of disease resistance genes.

  11. [A simple point score for definition of the risk of postoperative complications].

    PubMed

    Grundmann, R; Papoulis, C

    1989-01-01

    During a 5-year-period we recorded prospectively 5,823 patients who had undergone general surgery and documented the postoperative complications as wound infection, pneumonia, reoperations and death. A score including all these complications was developed to evaluate the risk of an operation more exactly than using the wound infection rate alone. This method seems to provide a continuous monitoring and the comparison of the complication risks of certain operations within a quality assurance program. For gastric and colon surgery we found a correlation between postoperative antibiotic use and score, but not between score and postoperative hospitalization time.

  12. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in Tunisia: applying the Framingham risk score to national survey data

    PubMed Central

    Saidi, O; Malouche, D; O'Flaherty, M; Ben Mansour, N; A Skhiri, H; Ben Romdhane, H; Bezdah, L

    2016-01-01

    Objective This paper aims to assess the socioeconomic determinants of a high 10 year cardiovascular risk in Tunisia. Setting We used a national population based cross sectional survey conducted in 2005 in Tunisia comprising 7780 subjects. We applied the non-laboratory version of the Framingham equation to estimate the 10 year cardiovascular risk. Participants 8007 participants, aged 35–74 years, were included in the sample but effective exclusion of individuals with cardiovascular diseases and cancer resulted in 7780 subjects (3326 men and 4454 women) included in the analysis. Results Mean age was 48.7 years. Women accounted for 50.5% of participants. According to the Framingham equation, 18.1% (17.25–18.9%) of the study population had a high risk (≥20% within 10 years). The gender difference was striking and statistically significant: 27.2% (25.7–28.7%) of men had a high risk, threefold higher than women (9.7%; 8.8–10.5%). A higher 10 year global cardiovascular risk was associated with social disadvantage in men and women; thus illiterate and divorced individuals, and adults without a professional activity had a significantly higher risk of developing a cardiovascular event in 10 years. Illiterate men were at higher risk than those with secondary and higher education (OR=7.01; 5.49 to 9.14). The risk in illiterate women was more elevated (OR=13.57; 7.58 to 24.31). Those living in an urban area had a higher risk (OR=1.45 (1.19 to 1.76) in men and OR=1.71 (1.35 to 2.18) in women). Conclusions The 10 year global cardiovascular risk in the Tunisian population is already substantially high, affecting almost a third of men and 1 in 10 women, and concentrated in those more socially disadvantaged. PMID:27903556

  13. The "Dry-Run" Analysis: A Method for Evaluating Risk Scores for Confounding Control.

    PubMed

    Wyss, Richard; Hansen, Ben B; Ellis, Alan R; Gagne, Joshua J; Desai, Rishi J; Glynn, Robert J; Stürmer, Til

    2017-03-06

    A propensity score (PS) model's ability to control confounding can be assessed by evaluating covariate balance across exposure groups after PS adjustment. The optimal strategy for evaluating a disease risk score (DRS) model's ability to control confounding is less clear. DRS models cannot be evaluated through balance checks within the full population, and they are usually assessed through prediction diagnostics and goodness-of-fit tests. A proposed alternative is the "dry-run" analysis, which divides the unexposed population into "pseudo-exposed" and "pseudo-unexposed" groups so that differences on observed covariates resemble differences between the actual exposed and unexposed populations. With no exposure effect separating the pseudo-exposed and pseudo-unexposed groups, a DRS model is evaluated by its ability to retrieve an unconfounded null estimate after adjustment in this pseudo-population. We used simulations and an empirical example to compare traditional DRS performance metrics with the dry-run validation. In simulations, the dry run often improved assessment of confounding control, compared with the C statistic and goodness-of-fit tests. In the empirical example, PS and DRS matching gave similar results and showed good performance in terms of covariate balance (PS matching) and controlling confounding in the dry-run analysis (DRS matching). The dry-run analysis may prove useful in evaluating confounding control through DRS models.

  14. Prospective Validation of the Dante Pazzanese Risk Score in Non-STSegment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    dos Santos, Elizabete Silva; Minuzzo, Luiz; de Souza, Roberta; Timerman, Ari

    2013-01-01

    Background In non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS), the likelihood of adverse events should be estimated. Guidelines recommend risk stratification models for that purpose. The Dante Pazzanese risk score (DANTE score) is a simple risk stratification model composed with the following variables: age increase (0 to 9 points); history of diabetes mellitus (2 points) or stroke (4 points); no use of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor (1 point); creatinine elevation (0 to 10 points); combination of troponin elevation and ST-segment depression (0 to 4 points). Objective To validate the DANTE score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation ACS. Methods Prospective, observational study including 457 patients, from September 2009 to October 2010. The patients were grouped in risk categories according to the original model score as follows: very low; low; intermediate; and high. The predictive ability of the score was assessed by using C-statistics. Results The sample comprised 291 (63.7%) men, the mean age being 62.1 years (SD=11.04). The event death or (re) infarction in 30 days was observed in 17 patients (3.7%). Progressive increase in the proportion of events was observed as the score increased: very low risk = 0.0%; low risk = 3.9%; intermediate risk = 10.9%; high risk = 60.0%; p < 0.0001. C-statistics was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.94; p < 0.0001). Conclusion DANTE score showed an excellent capacity to predict the specific events, and can be incorporated to the prognostic assessment of patients with non-ST-segment elevation ACS. PMID:23949327

  15. Antipsychotics and Mortality: Adjusting for Mortality Risk Scores to Address Confounding by Terminal Illness

    PubMed Central

    Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M.; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Earlier studies have documented a greater mortality risk associated with conventional compared with atypical antipsychotics. Concern remains that the association is not causal, but due to residual confounding by differences in underlying health. To address this concern, we evaluated whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed fornursing home (NH) populations affected the magnitude of the previously observed associations. DESIGN Cohort study SETTING A merged dataset of Medicaid, Medicare, the Minimum Data Set (MDS), the Online Survey Certification and Reporting system (OSCAR), and the National Death Index in the US for 2001-2005 PARTICIPANTS Dual eligible subjects ≥ 65 years who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (n=75,445). MEASUREMENTS Three mortality risk scores (MRIS, MMRI-R, and ADEPT) were derived for each patient using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The impact of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PS) on the antipsychotic-mortality association was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. RESULTS Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users in the full cohort, suggesting potential confounding, were greatly reduced within PS deciles. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS only adjustment vs. 2.20, 2.20, 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. CONCLUSION Although causality cannot be proven based on non-randomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting alternative explanations for the increased mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics. PMID:25752911

  16. Grading criteria for chronic ocular graft-versus-host disease: Comparing the NIH eye score, Japanese dry eye score, and DEWS 2007 score

    PubMed Central

    Tatematsu, Yukako; Ogawa, Yoko; Abe, Takayuki; Kamoi, Mizuka; Uchino, Miki; Saijo-Ban, Yumiko; Yaguchi, Saori; Mukai, Shin; Mori, Takehiko; Okamoto, Shinichiro; Tsubota, Kazuo

    2014-01-01

    Ocular graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a common complication after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Here we compared the diagnostic rates of ocular GVHD, including its severity, prognosis and the agreement, obtained using three grading scales: the National Institutes of Health (NIH) eye score, Japanese dry eye score, and dry eye workshop score, by retrospectively reviewing the records of 82 patients who underwent HSCT. Tear dynamics and ocular surface assessments made 6–9 months after HSCT were used to determine ocular GVHD severity with the three scales. By the three scales, ocular GVHD was diagnosed in 56 patients (68.3%), 51 patients (62.2%), and 52 patients (63.4%), respectively. The Kappa coefficient was calculated to determine the agreement between scales for diagnosing ocular GVHD. The severity progression within two years after onset was also assessed by tear dynamics and ocular surface examination. The patients were categorized as no change, improved, or progressive. The three grading scales showed good agreement (Kappa = 0.87 to 0.97) in diagnosing patients with ocular GVHD, and the scores by all three were significantly associated with the patients' prognosis (p < 0.01). We recommend that multi-center research is needed for further validation and investigation. PMID:25338290

  17. Predicting Disease-Related Subnetworks for Type 1 Diabetes Using a New Network Activity Score

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Shouguo; Jia, Shuang; Hessner, Martin J.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract In this study we investigated the advantage of including network information in prioritizing disease genes of type 1 diabetes (T1D). First, a naïve Bayesian network (NBN) model was developed to integrate information from multiple data sources and to define a T1D-involvement probability score (PS) for each individual gene. The algorithm was validated using known functional candidate genes as a benchmark. Genes with higher PS were found to be more likely to appear in T1D-related publications. Next a new network activity metric was proposed to evaluate the T1D relevance of protein-protein interaction (PPI) subnetworks. The metric considered the contribution both from individual genes and from network topological characteristics. The predictions were confirmed by several independent datasets, including a genome wide association study (GWAS), and two large-scale human gene expression studies. We found that novel candidate genes in the T1D subnetworks showed more significant associations with T1D than genes predicted using PS alone. Interestingly, most novel candidates were not encoded within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region, and their expression levels showed correlation with disease only in cohorts with low-risk HLA genotypes. The results suggested the importance of mapping disease gene networks in dissecting the genetics of complex diseases, and offered a general approach to network-based disease gene prioritization from multiple data sources. PMID:22917479

  18. 75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-03

    ... loan-to-value (LTV) for borrowers with lower credit scores who represent a higher risk of default and.... The new LTV and credit score requirements will reduce the risk to the MMIF and ensure that home buyers..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit...

  19. Simplified risk score models accurately predict the risk of major in-hospital complications following percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Resnic, F S; Ohno-Machado, L; Selwyn, A; Simon, D I; Popma, J J

    2001-07-01

    The objectives of this analysis were to develop and validate simplified risk score models for predicting the risk of major in-hospital complications after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the era of widespread stenting and use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antagonists. We then sought to compare the performance of these simplified models with those of full logistic regression and neural network models. From January 1, 1997 to December 31, 1999, data were collected on 4,264 consecutive interventional procedures at a single center. Risk score models were derived from multiple logistic regression models using the first 2,804 cases and then validated on the final 1,460 cases. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the risk score model that predicted death was 0.86 compared with 0.85 for the multiple logistic model and 0.83 for the neural network model (validation set). For the combined end points of death, myocardial infarction, or bypass surgery, the corresponding areas under the ROC curves were 0.74, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively. Previously identified risk factors were confirmed in this analysis. The use of stents was associated with a decreased risk of in-hospital complications. Thus, risk score models can accurately predict the risk of major in-hospital complications after PCI. Their discriminatory power is comparable to those of logistic models and neural network models. Accurate bedside risk stratification may be achieved with these simple models.

  20. Epigenetic Inheritance of Disease and Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Bohacek, Johannes; Mansuy, Isabelle M

    2013-01-01

    Epigenetic marks in an organism can be altered by environmental factors throughout life. Although changes in the epigenetic code can be positive, some are associated with severe diseases, in particular, cancer and neuropsychiatric disorders. Recent evidence has indicated that certain epigenetic marks can be inherited, and reshape developmental and cellular features over generations. This review examines the challenging possibility that epigenetic changes induced by environmental factors can contribute to some of the inheritance of disease and disease risk. This concept has immense implications for the understanding of biological functions and disease etiology, and provides potential novel strategies for diagnosis and treatment. Examples of epigenetic inheritance relevant to human disease, such as the detrimental effects of traumatic stress or drug/toxic exposure on brain functions, are reviewed. Different possible routes of transmission of epigenetic information involving the germline or germline-independent transfer are discussed, and different mechanisms for the maintenance and transmission of epigenetic information like chromatin remodeling and small noncoding RNAs are considered. Future research directions and remaining major challenges in this field are also outlined. Finally, the adaptive value of epigenetic inheritance, and the cost and benefit of allowing acquired epigenetic marks to persist across generations is critically evaluated. PMID:22781843

  1. Admission Risk Score to Predict Inpatient Pediatric Mortality at Four Public Hospitals in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Sears, David; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Rubahika, Denis; Nadler, Adam; Yeka, Adoke; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    Mortality rates among hospitalized children in many government hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa are high. Pediatric emergency services in these hospitals are often sub-optimal. Timely recognition of critically ill children on arrival is key to improving service delivery. We present a simple risk score to predict inpatient mortality among hospitalized children. Between April 2010 and June 2011, the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project (UMSP), in collaboration with the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), set up an enhanced sentinel site malaria surveillance program for children hospitalized at four public hospitals in different districts: Tororo, Apac, Jinja and Mubende. Clinical data collected through March 2013, representing 50249 admissions were used to develop a mortality risk score (derivation data set). One year of data collected subsequently from the same hospitals, representing 20406 admissions, were used to prospectively validate the performance of the risk score (validation data set). Using a backward selection approach, 13 out of 25 clinical parameters recognizable on initial presentation, were selected for inclusion in a final logistic regression prediction model. The presence of individual parameters was awarded a score of either 1 or 2 based on regression coefficients. For each individual patient, a composite risk score was generated. The risk score was further categorized into three categories; low, medium, and high. Patient characteristics were comparable in both data sets. Measures of performance for the risk score included the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the curve (AUC), both demonstrating good and comparable ability to predict deathusing both the derivation (AUC =0.76) and validation dataset (AUC =0.74). Using the derivation and validation datasets, the mortality rates in each risk category were as follows: low risk (0.8% vs. 0.7%), moderate risk (3.5% vs. 3.2%), and high risk (16.5% vs. 12.6%), respectively. Our

  2. Early inpatient calculation of laboratory-based 30-day readmission risk scores empowers clinical risk modification during index hospitalization.

    PubMed

    Horne, Benjamin D; Budge, Deborah; Masica, Andrew L; Savitz, Lucy A; Benuzillo, José; Cantu, Gabriela; Bradshaw, Alejandra; McCubrey, Raymond O; Bair, Tami L; Roberts, Colleen A; Rasmusson, Kismet D; Alharethi, Rami; Kfoury, Abdallah G; James, Brent C; Lappé, Donald L

    2017-03-01

    Improving 30-day readmission continues to be problematic for most hospitals. This study reports the creation and validation of sex-specific inpatient (i) heart failure (HF) risk scores using electronic data from the beginning of inpatient care for effective and efficient prediction of 30-day readmission risk.

  3. Comparison of contemporary risk scores for predicting outcomes after surgery for active infective endocarditis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Oh, Timothy; Voss, Jamie; Gamble, Greg; Kang, Nicholas; Pemberton, James

    2015-03-01

    Decision making regarding surgery for acute bacterial endocarditis is complex given its heterogeneity and often fatal course. Few studies have investigated the utility of operative risk scores in this setting. Endocarditis-specific scores have recently been developed. We assessed the prognostic utility of contemporary risk scores for mortality and morbidity after endocarditis surgery. Additive and logistic EuroSCORE I, EuroSCORE II, additive Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Endocarditis Score and additive De Feo-Cotrufo Score were retrospectively calculated for patients undergoing surgery for endocarditis during 2005-2011. Pre-specified primary outcomes were operative mortality, composite morbidity and mortality during follow-up. A total of 146 patients were included with an operative mortality of 6.8 % followed for 4.1 ± 2.4 years. Mean scores were additive EuroSCORE I: 8.0 ± 2.5, logistic EuroSCORE I: 13.2 ± 10.1 %, EuroSCORE II: 9.1 % ± 9.4 %, STS Score: 32.2 ± 13.5 and De Feo-Cotrufo Score: 14.6 ± 9.2. Corresponding areas under curve (AUC) for operative mortality 0.653, 0.645, 0.656, 0.699 and 0.744; for composite morbidity were 0.623, 0.625, 0.720, 0.714 and 0.774; and long-term mortality 0.588, 0.579, 0.686, 0.735 and 0.751. The best tool for post-operative stroke was EuroSCORE II: AUC 0.837; for ventilation >24 h and return to theatre the De Feo-Cotrufo Scores were: AUC 0.821 and 0.712. Pre-operative inotrope or intra-aortic balloon pump treatment, previous coronary bypass grafting and dialysis were independent predictors of operative and long-term mortality. In conclusion, risk models developed specifically from endocarditis surgeries and incorporating endocarditis variables have improved prognostic ability of outcomes, and can play an important role in the decision making towards surgery for endocarditis.

  4. Motor impairment influences Farnsworth-Munsell 100 Hue test error scores in Parkinson's disease patients.

    PubMed

    Müller, Thomas; Meisel, Margareta; Russ, Herrmann; Przuntek, Horst

    2003-09-15

    Farnsworth-Munsell 100 Hue test (FMT) error scores and peg insertion abilities significantly differ between Parkinson's disease (PD) patients and controls. Both tasks ask for performance of voluntary movements. The objective of this study was to demonstrate a relation between FMT error scores and peg insertion outcomes. We successively performed both tasks in 28 previously untreated PD patients. The FMT error score was significantly (p=0.016) lower in patients with better peg insertion outcome. A significant (Spearman R=0.47, p=0.012) correlation between peg insertion results and the FMT error scores appeared. Motor impairment influences FMT error scores in PD patients.

  5. A Retrospective Analysis of Pressure Ulcer Incidence and Modified Braden Scale Score Risk Classifications.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hong-Lin; Cao, Ying-Juan; Wang, Jing; Huai, Bao-Sha

    2015-09-01

    The Braden Scale is the most widely used pressure ulcer risk assessment in the world, but the currently used 5 risk classification groups do not accurately discriminate among their risk categories. To optimize risk classification based on Braden Scale scores, a retrospective analysis of all consecutively admitted patients in an acute care facility who were at risk for pressure ulcer development was performed between January 2013 and December 2013. Predicted pressure ulcer incidence first was calculated by logistic regression model based on original Braden score. Risk classification then was modified based on the predicted pressure ulcer incidence and compared between different risk categories in the modified (3-group) classification and the traditional (5-group) classification using chi-square test. Two thousand, six hundred, twenty-five (2,625) patients (mean age 59.8 ± 16.5, range 1 month to 98 years, 1,601 of whom were men) were included in the study; 81 patients (3.1%) developed a pressure ulcer. The predicted pressure ulcer incidence ranged from 0.1% to 49.7%. When the predicted pressure ulcer incidence was greater than 10.0% (high risk), the corresponding Braden scores were less than 11; when the predicted incidence ranged from 1.0% to 10.0% (moderate risk), the corresponding Braden scores ranged from 12 to 16; and when the predicted incidence was less than 1.0% (mild risk), the corresponding Braden scores were greater than 17. In the modified classification, observed pressure ulcer incidence was significantly different between each of the 3 risk categories (P less than 0.05). However, in the traditional classification, the observed incidence was not significantly different between the high-risk category and moderate-risk category (P less than 0.05) and between the mild-risk category and no-risk category (P less than 0.05). If future studies confirm the validity of these findings, pressure ulcer prevention protocols of care based on Braden Scale scores can

  6. Comparison of mortality risk: a score for very low birthweight infants

    PubMed Central

    Maier, R; Rey, M; Metze, B; Obladen;, M; TARNOW-MORDI, W.

    1997-01-01

    AIM—To develop and evaluate a score which quantifies mortality risk in very low birthweight (VLBW) infants (birthweight below 1500 g) at admission to the neonatal intensive care unit.
METHODS—Five hundred and seventy two VLBW infants admitted from 1978 to 1987 were randomly assigned to a cohort (n = 396) for score development and a cohort (n = 176) for score validation. Two hundred and ninety four VLBW infants admitted from 1988 to 1991 were used to compare risk adjusted mortality between the two eras.
RESULTS—Using multiple regression analysis, birthweight, Apgar score at 5 minutes, base excess at admission, severity of respiratory distress syndrome, and artificial ventilation were predictive of death in the development cohort. According to regression coefficients, a score ranging from 3 to 40 was developed. At a cutoff of 21, it predicted death in the validation cohort with a sensitivity of 0.85, a specificity of 0.73, and a correct classification rate of 0.76. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.86. There was no significant difference in risk severity and in risk adjusted mortality between the eras 1978-87 and 1988-91.
CONCLUSION—The present score is robust, easily obtainable at admission, and permits early randomisation based on mortality risk.

 Keywords: mortality risk; scoring system; very low birthweight PMID:9175942

  7. Can molecular biomarkers replace a clinical risk score for resectable colorectal liver metastasis?

    PubMed Central

    Veen, Torhild; Søreide, Kjetil

    2017-01-01

    In resectable colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) the role and use of molecular biomarkers is still controversial. Several biomarkers have been linked to clinical outcomes in CRLM, but none have so far become routine for clinical decision making. For several reasons, the clinical risk score appears to no longer hold the same predictive value. Some of the reasons include the ever expanding indications for liver resection, which now increasingly tend to involve extrahepatic disease, such as lung metastases (both resectable and non-resectable) and the shift in indication from “what is taken out” (e.g., how much liver has to be resected) to “what is left behind” (that is, how much functional liver tissue the patient has after resection). The latter is amenable to modifications by using adjunct techniques of portal vein embolization and the associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy techniques to expand indications for liver resection. Added to this complexity is the increasing number of molecular markers, which appear to hold important prognostic and predictive information, for which some will be discussed here. Beyond characteristics of tissue-based genomic profiles will be liquid biopsies derived from circulating tumor cells and cell-free circulating tumor DNA in the blood. These markers are present in the peripheral circulation in the majority of patients with metastatic cancer disease. Circulating biomarkers may represent more readily available methods to monitor, characterize and predict cancer biology with future implications for cancer care. PMID:28344745

  8. The impact of ankle brachial index and pulse wave velocity on cardiovascular risk according to SCORE and Framingham scales and sex differences.

    PubMed

    Woźnicka-Leśkiewicz, L; Posadzy-Małaczyńska, A; Juszkat, R

    2015-08-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of ankle brachial index (ABI) and pulse wave velocity (PWV) in patients with or without coronary artery disease (CAD) and hypertension (HT) in cardiovascular risk prediction. We studied 200 patients randomized to one of four groups: CAD+HT+; CAD+HT-; CAD-HT+; CAD-HT- (Department of Hypertensiology, Angiology and Internal Diseases, Poznan, Poland: 2009-2012). We evaluated: patient age, lipids profile, ABI and PWV. The cardiovascular risks according to SCORE and Framingham scales were assessed. Statistical calculations were performed in StatSoft Statistica 10. The most interesting aspects of this study were: logistic regression model evaluated the simultaneously influence of ABI and PWV on cardiovascular risk by the SCORE scale and logistic regression model evaluated the influence of ABI and PWV on cardiovascular risk according to the Framingham scale. They showed the possibility (SCORE) of more accurate estimation of cardiovascular risk in an individual patient and graduation of this risk in the exemplary patients. Analysis of the assessment of both: ABI and PWV in predicting of cardiovascular risk according to SCORE and Framingham scales using a logistic regression model indicates that the Framingham scale is less precise than the SCORE scale because it underestimates the real high cardiovascular risk.

  9. Dentistry: risks for addictive disease.

    PubMed

    Walter, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Chemical dependence is chronic disease with genetic, psychosocial, and environmental contributing factors and neurological characteristics. Dentists may be at an increased risk for addiction because they are in a helping profession, work in a stressful environment in which drugs are readily available, often exhibit perfectionist personality traits, and function in isolation. Treatment can be effective, especially when provided by staff skilled in working with healthcare professionals, using the Twelve-Step approach, involving families, and addressing related dysfunctional behavior patterns and psychological issues.

  10. Future directions in Alzheimer's disease from risk factors to prevention.

    PubMed

    Imtiaz, Bushra; Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Kivipelto, Miia; Soininen, Hilkka

    2014-04-15

    The increase in life expectancy has resulted in a high occurrence of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Research on AD has undergone a paradigm shift from viewing it as a disease of old age to taking a life course perspective. Several vascular, lifestyle, psychological and genetic risk factors influencing this latent period have been recognized and they may act both independently and by potentiating each other. These risk factors have consequently been used to derive risk scores for predicting the likelihood of dementia. Despite population differences, age, low education and vascular risk factors were identified as key factors in all scoring systems. Risk scores can help to identify high-risk individuals who might benefit from different interventions. The European Dementia Prevention Initiative (EDPI), an international collaboration, encourages data sharing between different randomized controlled trials. At the moment, it includes three large ongoing European trials: Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER), Prevention of Dementia by Intensive Vascular Care (preDIVA), and Multidomain Alzheimer Prevention study (MAPT). Recently EDPI has developed a "Healthy Aging through Internet Counseling in Elderly" (HATICE) program, which intends to manage modifiable risk factors in an aged population through an easily accessible Internet platform. Thus, the focus of dementia research has shifted from identification of potential risk factors to using this information for developing interventions to prevent or delay the onset of dementia as well as identifying special high-risk populations who could be targeted in intervention trials.

  11. Predicting Ebola Severity: A Clinical Prioritization Score for Ebola Virus Disease

    PubMed Central

    Okoni-Williams, Harry Henry; Suma, Mohamed; Mancuso, Brooke; Al-Dikhari, Ahmed; Faouzi, Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    Background Despite the notoriety of Ebola virus disease (EVD) as one of the world’s most deadly infections, EVD has a wide range of outcomes, where asymptomatic infection may be almost as common as fatality. With increasingly sensitive EVD diagnosis, there is a need for more accurate prognostic tools that objectively stratify clinical severity to better allocate limited resources and identify those most in need of intensive treatment. Methods/Principal Findings This retrospective cohort study analyses the clinical characteristics of 158 EVD(+) patients at the GOAL-Mathaska Ebola Treatment Centre, Sierra Leone. The prognostic potential of each characteristic was assessed and incorporated into a statistically weighted disease score. The mortality rate among EVD(+) patients was 60.8% and highest in those aged <5 or >25 years (p<0.05). Death was significantly associated with malaria co-infection (OR = 2.5, p = 0.01). However, this observation was abrogated after adjustment to Ebola viral load (p = 0.1), potentially indicating a pathologic synergy between the infections. Similarly, referral-time interacted with viral load, and adjustment revealed referral-time as a significant determinant of mortality, thus quantifying the benefits of early reporting as a 12% mortality risk reduction per day (p = 0.012). Disorientation was the strongest unadjusted predictor of death (OR = 13.1, p = 0.014) followed by hiccups, diarrhoea, conjunctivitis, dyspnoea and myalgia. Including these characteristics in multivariate prognostic scores, we obtained a 91% and 97% ability to discriminate death at or after triage respectively (area under ROC curve). Conclusions/Significance This study proposes highly predictive and easy-to-use prognostic tools, which stratify the risk of EVD mortality at or after EVD triage. PMID:28151955

  12. ESC Working Group on Valvular Heart Disease Position Paper: assessing the risk of interventions in patients with valvular heart disease

    PubMed Central

    Rosenhek, Raphael; Iung, Bernard; Tornos, Pilar; Antunes, Manuel J.; Prendergast, Bernard D.; Otto, Catherine M.; Kappetein, Arie Pieter; Stepinska, Janina; Kaden, Jens J.; Naber, Christoph K.; Acartürk, Esmeray; Gohlke-Bärwolf, Christa

    2012-01-01

    Aims Risk scores provide an important contribution to clinical decision-making, but their validity has been questioned in patients with valvular heart disease (VHD), since current scores have been mainly derived and validated in adults undergoing coronary bypass surgery. The Working Group on Valvular Heart Disease of the European Society of Cardiology reviewed the performance of currently available scores when applied to VHD, in order to guide clinical practice and future development of new scores. Methods and results The most widely used risk scores (EuroSCORE, STS, and Ambler score) were reviewed, analysing variables included and their predictive ability when applied to patients with VHD. These scores provide relatively good discrimination, i.e. a gross estimation of risk category, but cannot be used to estimate the exact operative mortality in an individual patient because of unsatisfactory calibration. Conclusion Current risk scores do not provide a reliable estimate of exact operative mortality in an individual patient with VHD. They should therefore be interpreted with caution and only used as part of an integrated approach, which incorporates other patient characteristics, the clinical context, and local outcome data. Future risk scores should include additional variables, such as cognitive and functional capacity and be prospectively validated in high-risk patients. Specific risk models should also be developed for newer interventions, such as transcatheter aortic valve implantation. PMID:21406443

  13. Predicting Ebola infection: A malaria-sensitive triage score for Ebola virus disease

    PubMed Central

    Okoni-Williams, Harry Henry; Suma, Mohamed; Mancuso, Brooke; Al-Dikhari, Ahmed; Faouzi, Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    Background The non-specific symptoms of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) pose a major problem to triage and isolation efforts at Ebola Treatment Centres (ETCs). Under the current triage protocol, half the patients allocated to high-risk “probable” wards were EVD(-): a misclassification speculated to predispose nosocomial EVD infection. A better understanding of the statistical relevance of individual triage symptoms is essential in resource-poor settings where rapid, laboratory-confirmed diagnostics are often unavailable. Methods/Principal findings This retrospective cohort study analyses the clinical characteristics of 566 patients admitted to the GOAL-Mathaska ETC in Sierra Leone. The diagnostic potential of each characteristic was assessed by multivariate analysis and incorporated into a statistically weighted predictive score, designed to detect EVD as well as discriminate malaria. Of the 566 patients, 28% were EVD(+) and 35% were malaria(+). Malaria was 2-fold more common in EVD(-) patients (p<0.05), and thus an important differential diagnosis. Univariate analyses comparing EVD(+) vs. EVD(-) and EVD(+)/malaria(-) vs. EVD(-)/malaria(+) cohorts revealed 7 characteristics with the highest odds for EVD infection, namely: reported sick-contact, conjunctivitis, diarrhoea, referral-time of 4–9 days, pyrexia, dysphagia and haemorrhage. Oppositely, myalgia was more predictive of EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). Including these 8 characteristics in a triage score, we obtained an 89% ability to discriminate EVD(+) from either EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). Conclusions/Significance This study proposes a highly predictive and easy-to-use triage tool, which stratifies the risk of EVD infection with 89% discriminative power for both EVD(-) and EVD(-)/malaria(+) differential diagnoses. Improved triage could preserve resources by identifying those in need of more specific differential diagnostics as well as bolster infection prevention/control measures by better compartmentalizing

  14. Nutritional risk screening 2002 and ASA score predict mortality after elective liver resection for malignancy

    PubMed Central

    Ferreira, Nelio

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The aim of the study was to evaluate whether Nutritional risk screening 2002 (NRS 2002) at hospital admission may predict postoperative mortality and complications within 90 days after elective liver resection for malignancy. Material and methods A retrospective cohort study of a prospective database was performed. Two-hundred and three patients with elective liver resection for malignancy between 9 November 2007 and 27 May 2014 were included. Clinical data, NRS 2002, surgical procedures and histology were recorded. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. Complications were registered within 90 days postoperatively according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. Results The 90-day mortality was 5.9% and the overall complication rate was 59.1%. Multivariate analysis identified NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 (odds ratio (OR) = 9.24; p = 0.005) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ≥ 3 (OR = 6.20; p = 0.009) as predictors of 90-day mortality. The 90-day mortality was 27.6% (8/29) for patients with both risk factors (NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 and ASA score ≥ 3) vs. 2.3% (4/174) for patients without or with only one risk factor (p < 0.001). Conclusions In the present study NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 and ASA score ≥ 3 were predictors of 90-day mortality after elective liver resection for malignancy. PMID:28261289

  15. Does staff see what experts see? Accuracy of front line staff in scoring juveniles' risk factors.

    PubMed

    Kennealy, Patrick J; Skeem, Jennifer L; Hernandez, Isaias R

    2017-01-01

    Although increasingly complex risk assessment tools are being marketed, little is known about "real world" practitioners' capacity to score them accurately. In this study, we assess the extent to which 78 staff members' scoring of juveniles on the California-Youth Assessment and Screening Instrument (CA-YASI; Orbis Partners, Inc., 2008) agree with experts' criterion scores for those cases. There are 3 key findings. First, at the total score level, practitioners manifest limited agreement (M ICC = .63) with the criterion: Only 59.0% of staff scores the tool with "good" accuracy. Second, at the subscale level, practitioners' accuracy is particularly weak for treatment-relevant factors that require substantial judgment-like procriminal attitudes (M ICC = .52)-but good for such straightforward factors as legal history (M ICC = .72). Third, practitioners' accuracy depended on their experience-relatively new staff's scores were more consistent with the criterion than those with greater years of experience. Results suggest that attention to parsimony (for tools) and meaningful training and monitoring (for staff) are necessary to realize the promise of risk assessment for informing risk reduction. (PsycINFO Database Record

  16. Methamphetamine Users Have Increased Dental Disease: A Propensity Score Analysis.

    PubMed

    Shetty, V; Harrell, L; Clague, J; Murphy, D A; Dye, B A; Belin, T R

    2016-07-01

    Methamphetamine (MA) users are assumed to have a high burden of tooth decay. Less clear is how the distribution and severity of dental caries in MA users differ from the general population. Using a covariate-balancing propensity score strategy, we investigated the differential effects of MA use on dental caries by comparing the patterns of decayed, missing, and filled teeth in a community sample of 571 MA users with a subset of 2,755 demographically similar control individuals selected from a National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohort. Recruited over a 2-y period with a stratified sampling protocol, the MA users underwent comprehensive dental examinations by 3 trained and calibrated dentists using NHANES protocols. Propensity scores were estimated with logistic regression based on background characteristics, and a subset of closely matched subjects was stratified into quintiles for comparisons. MA users were twice as likely to have untreated caries (odds ratio [OR] = 2.08; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.55 to 2.78) and 4 times more likely to have caries experience (OR = 4.06; 95% CI: 2.24 to 7.34) than the control group of NHANES participants. Additionally, MA users were twice as likely to have 2 more decayed, missing, or filled teeth (OR = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.29 to 2.79) than the NHANES participants. The differential involvement of the teeth surfaces in MA users was quite distinctive, with carious surface involvement being highest for the maxillary central incisors, followed by maxillary posterior premolars and molars. Users injecting MA had significantly higher rates of tooth decay compared with noninjectors (P = 0.04). Although MA users experienced decayed and missing dental surfaces more frequently than NHANES participants, NHANES participants had more restored surfaces, especially on molars. The high rates and distinctive patterns of dental caries observed could be used 1) to alert dentists to covert MA use in their patients and 2) as

  17. Validity of APCS score as a risk prediction score for advanced colorectal neoplasia in Chinese asymptomatic subjects: A prospective colonoscopy study.

    PubMed

    Li, Wenbin; Zhang, Lili; Hao, Jianyu; Wu, Yongdong; Lu, Di; Zhao, Haiying; Wang, Zhenjie; Xu, Tianming; Yang, Hong; Qian, Jiaming; Li, Jingnan

    2016-10-01

    The Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score is a risk-stratification tool that helps predict the risk for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) in asymptomatic Asian populations, but has not yet been assessed for its validity of use in Mainland China.The aim of the study was to assess the validity of APCS score in asymptomatic Chinese population, and to identify other risk factors associated with ACN.Asymptomatic subjects (N = 1010) who underwent colonoscopy screening between 2012 and 2014 in Beijing were enrolled. APCS scores based on questionnaires were used to stratify subjects into high, moderate, and average-risk tiers. Cochran-Armitage test for trend was used to assess the association between ACN and risk tiers. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed with ACN as the outcome, adjusting for APCS score, body mass index, alcohol consumption, self-reported diabetes, and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs as independent variables.The average age was 53.5 (standard deviation 8.4) years. The prevalence of ACN was 4.1% overall, and in the high, moderate, and average-risk tiers, the prevalence was 8.8%, 2.83%, and 1.55%, respectively (P < 0.001). High-risk tier had 3.3 and 6.1-fold increased risk of ACN as compared with those in the moderate and average-risk tiers, respectively. In univariate analysis, high-risk tier, obesity, diabetes, and alcohol consumption were associated with ACN. In multivariate analysis, only high-risk tier was an independent predictor of ACN.The APCS score can effectively identify a subset of asymptomatic Chinese population at high risk for ACN. Further studies are required to identify other risk factors, and the acceptability of the score to the general population will need to be further examined.

  18. Could Parkinson's Disease Raise Stroke Risk?

    MedlinePlus

    ... news/fullstory_163751.html Could Parkinson's Disease Raise Stroke Risk? Or is the link the other way ... link between Parkinson's disease and the risk for stroke. However, the study can't prove that one ...

  19. Framingham risk score in impaired glucose tolerant population: A sub analysis of Diabetes Prevention and Awareness Program of Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Fawwad, Asher; Moin, Hassan; Siddiqui, Iftikhar Ahmed; Hydrie, Muhammad Zafar Iqbal; Basit, Abdul

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To assess the 10-year risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) using Framingham risk score. Methods: Data for this study was collected from Diabetes Prevention and Awareness Program. Primary prevention team visited different primary health care centers, factories, service organizations and offices within Karachi, Pakistan. IGT was diagnosed according to World Health Organization criteria after taking informed consent. Information regarding social-demography, dietary habits and physical activities were obtained by a designed questionnaire on one-to-one based interview. Framingham risk score (FRS) was used to assess risk of developing CAD. Results: A total of 315 subjects with IGT were recruited for the study. Mean age of subjects was 44.1 ± 9.8 years and mean BMI was 27.3 ± 5.0 kg/m2. Overall, 31.4% of the participants were at risk of having CAD. Males were 6.4 times and hypertensive subjects were 2.44 times more likely to have CAD in next 10 years. Conclusion: According to the findings of the study, male and hypertensive IGT subjects were more likely to develop CAD in next 10 years. Community based awareness programs are needed to educate people regarding healthy lifestyle in order to reduce the risk of IGT and CAD. PMID:27882006

  20. Risk score to stratify children with suspected serious bacterial infection: observational cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Brent, Andrew J; Lakhanpaul, Monica; Thompson, Matthew; Collier, Jacqueline; Ray, Samiran; Ninis, Nelly; Levin, Michael; MacFaul, Roddy

    2011-01-01

    Objectives To derive and validate a clinical score to risk stratify children presenting with acute infection. Study design and participants Observational cohort study of children presenting with suspected infection to an emergency department in England. Detailed data were collected prospectively on presenting clinical features, laboratory investigations and outcome. Clinical predictors of serious bacterial infection (SBI) were explored in multivariate logistic regression models using part of the dataset, each model was then validated in an independent part of the dataset, and the best model was chosen for derivation of a clinical risk score for SBI. The ability of this score to risk stratify children with SBI was then assessed in the entire dataset. Main outcome measure Final diagnosis of SBI according to criteria defined by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health working group on Recognising Acute Illness in Children. Results Data from 1951 children were analysed. 74 (3.8%) had SBI. The sensitivity of individual clinical signs was poor, although some were highly specific for SBI. A score was derived with reasonable ability to discriminate SBI (area under the receiver operator characteristics curve 0.77, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.83) and risk stratify children with suspected SBI. Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential utility of a clinical score in risk stratifying children with suspected SBI. Further work should aim to validate the score and its impact on clinical decision making in different settings, and ideally incorporate it into a broader management algorithm including additional investigations to further stratify a child's risk. PMID:21266341

  1. Screening Performance of Diabetes Risk Scores Among Asians and Whites in Rural Kerala, India

    PubMed Central

    Kannan, Srinivasan; Sarma, Sankara P.; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman

    2013-01-01

    We compared the screening performance of risk scores for Asians and whites for diabetes, dysglycemia, and metabolic syndrome. Our subjects were 451 people aged 15 to 64 years who participated in a cohort study from May 2003 through September 2010 in a rural area of the Thiruvananthapuram district of Kerala, India. All outcome measures showed overlap in the range of area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of Asian and white diabetes risk scores (DRSs). Asian and white DRSs performed similarly in rural India. PMID:23517580

  2. Therapeutic implications of selecting the SCORE (European) versus the D'AGOSTINO (American) risk charts for cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    PubMed Central

    Gómez-Marcos, Manuel A; Martínez-Salgado, Carlos; Martin-Cantera, Carlos; Recio-Rodríguez, José I; Castaño-Sánchez, Yolanda; Giné-Garriga, Maria; Rodriguez-Sanchez, Emiliano; García-Ortiz, Luis

    2009-01-01

    Background No comparisons have been made of scales estimating cardiovascular mortality and overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The study objectives were to assess the agreement between the Framingham-D'Agostino cardiovascular risk (CVR) scale and the chart currently recommended in Europe (SCORE) with regard to identification of patients with high CVR, and to describe the discrepancies between them and the attendant implications for the treatment of hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Methods A total of 474 hypertensive patients aged 40–65 years monitored in primary care were enrolled into the study. CVR was assessed using the Framingham-D'Agostino scale, which estimates the overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk, and the SCORE chart, which estimates the cardiovascular mortality risk. Cardiovascular risk was considered to be high for values ≥ 20% and ≥ 5% according to the Framingham-D'Agostino and SCORE charts respectively. Kappa statistics was estimated for agreement in classification of patients with high CVR. The therapeutic recommendations in the 2007 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention were followed. Results Mean patient age was 54.1 (SD 7.3), and 58.4% were males. A high CVR was found in 17.5% using the SCORE chart (25.3% males, 6.6% females) and in 32.7% using the D'Agostino method (56.9% males, 12,7% females). Kappa coefficient was 0.52, and increased to 0.68 when the high CVR threshold was established at 29% according to D'Agostino. Hypertensive patients with high SCORE and non-high D'Agostino (1.7%) were characterized by an older age, diabetes, and a lower atherogenic index, while the opposite situation (16.9%) was associated to males, hyperlipidaemia, and a higher atherogenic index. Variables with a greater weight in discrepancies were sex and smoking. A 32.0% according to SCORE and 33.5% according to D'Agostino would be candidates to receive antihypertensive treatment, and 15.8% and 27.3% respectively to

  3. Metabolic syndrome risk assessment in children: use of a single score

    PubMed Central

    Villa, Julia Khéde Dourado; Silva, Angélica Ribeiro e; Santos, Thanise Sabrina Souza; Ribeiro, Andréia Queiroz; Sant'Ana, Luciana Ferreira da Rocha

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To calculate a score of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in children and set a cutoff point of this score for the prediction of MetS risk. METHODS: The study included a random sample of 348 children aged 8 and 9 years of Viçosa, Southeast Brazil. Factor analysis by principal components (PCA) was used to determine, among various risk factors, those with higher degrees of intercorrelation. The chosen variables were: waist circumference (PC), homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA), high density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides (TAG) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). Z-scores were created for each one of these parameters and the sum of these z-scores constituted the MetS score. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify the cutoff of MetS score, using as gold standard the presence or absence of MetS determined according to criteria age-modified. RESULTS: The prevalence of MetS in the sample was 8.9% by adopting specific criteria for age, and 24% when considering the cutoff of MetS score. The selected cutoff point of 1.86 was accurate to predict the MetS risk in this sample due to its high sensitivity (96.7%), specificity (82.7%) and AUC of 0.96. CONCLUSIONS: This original Brazilian study presents the MetS score as a suitable alternative for the study of Metabolic Syndrome in children, given the lack of consensus for the definition of this syndrome in childhood. PMID:25649382

  4. The cerebrospinal fluid HIV risk score for assessing central nervous system activity in persons with HIV.

    PubMed

    Hammond, Edward R; Crum, Rosa M; Treisman, Glenn J; Mehta, Shruti H; Marra, Christina M; Clifford, David B; Morgello, Susan; Simpson, David M; Gelman, Benjamin B; Ellis, Ronald J; Grant, Igor; Letendre, Scott L; McArthur, Justin C

    2014-08-01

    Detectable human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is associated with central nervous system (CNS) complications. We developed the CSF HIV risk score through prediction modeling to estimate the risk of detectable CSF HIV RNA (threshold >50 copies/mL) to help identify persons who might benefit most from CSF monitoring. We used baseline data from 1,053 participants receiving combination antiretroviral therapy who were enrolled in the 6-center, US-based CNS HIV Antiretroviral Therapy Effects Research (CHARTER) prospective cohort in 2004-2007. Plasma HIV RNA, CNS penetration effectiveness, duration of combination antiretroviral therapy, medication adherence, race, and depression status were retained correlates of CSF HIV RNA, displaying good discrimination (C statistic = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87, 0.93) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.85). The CSF HIV risk score ranges from 0 to 42 points, with a mean of 15.4 (standard deviation, 7.3) points. At risk scores greater than 25, the probability of detecting CSF HIV RNA was at least 42.9% (95% CI: 36.6, 49.6). For each 1-point increase, the odds of detecting CSF HIV RNA increased by 26% (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.31; P < 0.01). The risk score correlates with detection of CSF HIV RNA. It represents an advance in HIV management and monitoring of CNS effects, providing a potentially useful tool for clinicians.

  5. The Cerebrospinal Fluid HIV Risk Score for Assessing Central Nervous System Activity in Persons With HIV

    PubMed Central

    Hammond, Edward R.; Crum, Rosa M.; Treisman, Glenn J.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Marra, Christina M.; Clifford, David B.; Morgello, Susan; Simpson, David M.; Gelman, Benjamin B.; Ellis, Ronald J.; Grant, Igor; Letendre, Scott L.; McArthur, Justin C.

    2014-01-01

    Detectable human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is associated with central nervous system (CNS) complications. We developed the CSF HIV risk score through prediction modeling to estimate the risk of detectable CSF HIV RNA (threshold >50 copies/mL) to help identify persons who might benefit most from CSF monitoring. We used baseline data from 1,053 participants receiving combination antiretroviral therapy who were enrolled in the 6-center, US-based CNS HIV Antiretroviral Therapy Effects Research (CHARTER) prospective cohort in 2004–2007. Plasma HIV RNA, CNS penetration effectiveness, duration of combination antiretroviral therapy, medication adherence, race, and depression status were retained correlates of CSF HIV RNA, displaying good discrimination (C statistic = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87, 0.93) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.85). The CSF HIV risk score ranges from 0 to 42 points, with a mean of 15.4 (standard deviation, 7.3) points. At risk scores greater than 25, the probability of detecting CSF HIV RNA was at least 42.9% (95% CI: 36.6, 49.6). For each 1-point increase, the odds of detecting CSF HIV RNA increased by 26% (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.31; P < 0.01). The risk score correlates with detection of CSF HIV RNA. It represents an advance in HIV management and monitoring of CNS effects, providing a potentially useful tool for clinicians. PMID:24966216

  6. [Risk factors for arterial disease].

    PubMed

    Madoery, Roberto; Rubin, Graciela; Luquez, Hugo; Luquez, Cecilia; Cravero, Cecilia

    2004-01-01

    The risk factors of arterial disease (FREA) predict a future damage over the vascular system of the human body. Its detection are considered a key for the diagnostic as well as for the preventive and even curative strategies. For a long time, scientist considered those factors originated as a consecuence of large studies during the middle of the last century, with current validity up to our days. A simple classification spoke of them as traditionals. Further investigations described the so called new or emergents.factors that where joint together accordingly to their actions: coagulation factors, psicosocial, inflamatories and infectious. A recent classification, taking into account the type of impact, divided them into; causatives, predisposals and conditionals. Also, it was described a mechanism, the oxidative power, with consecuences over the endothelium, in the last part of the process. Before, another mechanism was described: the insulin resistance and the hiperinsulinism, bases for the Metabolic Syndrome, that includes a number of traditional risk factors.

  7. Development of the Canadian Syncope Risk Score to predict serious adverse events after emergency department assessment of syncope

    PubMed Central

    Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Kwong, Kenneth; Wells, George A.; Sivilotti, Marco L.A.; Mukarram, Muhammad; Rowe, Brian H.; Lang, Eddy; Perry, Jeffrey J.; Sheldon, Robert; Stiell, Ian G.; Taljaard, Monica

    2016-01-01

    Background: Syncope can be caused by serious conditions not evident during initial evaluation, which can lead to serious adverse events, including death, after disposition from the emergency department. We sought to develop a clinical decision tool to identify adult patients with syncope who are at risk of a serious adverse event within 30 days after disposition from the emergency department. Methods: We prospectively enrolled adults (age ≥ 16 yr) with syncope who presented within 24 hours after the event to 1 of 6 large emergency departments from Sept. 29, 2010, to Feb. 27, 2014. We collected standardized variables at index presentation from clinical evaluation and investigations. Adjudicated serious adverse events included death, myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, serious hemorrhage and procedural interventions within 30 days. Results: We enrolled 4030 patients with syncope; the mean age was 53.6 years, 55.5% were women, and 9.5% were admitted to hospital. Serious adverse events occurred in 147 (3.6%) of the patients within 30 days after disposition from the emergency department. Of 43 candidate predictors examined, we included 9 in the final model: predisposition to vasovagal syncope, heart disease, any systolic pressure reading in the emergency department < 90 or > 180 mm Hg, troponin level above 99th percentile for the normal population, abnormal QRS axis (< −30° or > 100°), QRS duration longer than 130 ms, QTc interval longer than 480 ms, emergency department diagnosis of cardiac syncope and emergency department diagnosis of vasovagal syncope (C statistic 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85–0.90; optimism 0.015; goodness-of-fit p = 0.11). The risk of a serious adverse event within 30 days ranged from 0.4% for a score of −3 to 83.6% for a score of 11. The sensitivity was 99.2% (95% CI 95.9%–100%) for a threshold score of −2 or higher and 97.7% (95% CI 93.5%–99.5%) for a threshold score of −1

  8. Analysis of Surgical Mortality for Congenital Heart Defects Using RACHS-1 Risk Score in a Brazilian Single Center

    PubMed Central

    Cavalcante, Candice Torres de Melo Bezerra; de Souza, Nayana Maria Gomes; Pinto Júnior, Valdester Cavalcante; Branco, Klébia Magalhães Pereira Castello; Pompeu, Ronald Guedes; Teles, Andreia Consuelo de Oliveira; Cavalcante, Rodrigo Cardoso; de Andrade, Giselle Viana

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery 1 (RACHS-1) score is a simple model that can be easily applied and has been widely used for mortality comparison among pediatric cardiovascular services. It is based on the categorization of several surgical palliative or corrective procedures, which have similar mortality in the treatment of congenital heart disease. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the in-hospital mortality in pediatric patients (<18 years) submitted to cardiac surgery for congenital heart disease based on RACHS-1 score, during a 12-year period. METHODS: A retrospective date analysis was performed from January 2003 to December 2014. The survey was divided in two periods of six years long each, to check for any improvement in the results. We evaluated the numbers of procedures performed, complexity of surgery and hospital mortality. RESULTS: Three thousand and two hundred and one surgeries were performed. Of these, 3071 were able to be classified according to the score RACHS-1. Among the patients, 51.7% were male and 47.5% were younger than one year of age. The most common RACHS-1 category was 3 (35.5%). The mortality was 1.8%, 5.5%, 14.9%, 32.5% and 68.6% for category 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, respectively. There was a significant increase in the number of surgeries (48%) and a significant reduction in the mortality in the last period analysed (13.3% in period I and 10.4% in period II; P=0.014). CONCLUSION: RACHS-1 score was a useful score for mortality risk in our service, although we are aware that other factors have an impact on the total mortality. PMID:27737404

  9. An Inflammatory Polymorphisms Risk Scoring System for the Differentiation of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes

    PubMed Central

    Muiño, Elena; Krupinski, Jurek; Carrera, Caty; Gallego-Fabrega, Cristina; Montaner, Joan; Fernández-Cadenas, Israel

    2015-01-01

    Inflammation has been associated with atherothrombotic stroke and recently with cardioembolic stroke. Different genetic risk factors have been specifically associated with the subtypes of ischemic stroke (cardioembolic, atherothrombotic, and lacunar). However, there are no studies that have generated genetic risk scores for the different subtypes of ischemic stroke using polymorphisms associated with inflammation. Methods. We have analyzed 68 polymorphisms of 30 inflammatory mediator genes in 2,685 subjects: 1,987 stroke cases and 698 controls. We generated a genetic scoring system with the most significant polymorphisms weighted by the odds ratio of every polymorphism and taken into consideration the stroke subtype. Results. Three polymorphisms, rs1205 (CRP gene), rs1800779, and rs2257073 (NOS3 gene), were associated with cardioembolic stroke (p value <0.05). The score generated was only associated with the cardioembolic stroke subtype (p value: 0.001) and was replicated in an independent cohort (p value: 0.017). The subjects with the highest score presented a cardioembolic stroke in 92.2% of the cases (p value: 0.002). Conclusion. The genetics of inflammatory markers is more closely associated with cardioembolic strokes than with atherothrombotic or lacunar strokes. The genetic risk scoring system could be useful in the prediction and differentiation of ischemic stroke; however, it might be specific to particular ischemic stroke subtypes. PMID:26355258

  10. Obstetrical complications and Apgar score in subjects at risk of psychosis.

    PubMed

    Kotlicka-Antczak, Magdalena; Pawełczyk, Agnieszka; Rabe-Jabłońska, Jolanta; Smigielski, Janusz; Pawełczyk, Tomasz

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the study was to identify associations between a history of obstetrical complications (OCs) and the future development of symptoms indicating risk of psychosis (At Risk Mental State - ARMS). The frequency of OCs was assessed in 66 ARMS subjects, 50 subjects with the first episode of schizophrenia (FES) and 50 healthy controls. Obstetrical data was obtained from medical documentation and evaluated with the Lewis and Murray Scale. Definite OCs, according to the Lewis and Murray Scale, occurred significantly more frequently in the ARMS group compared to the controls (χ(2) = 7.79, p = 0.005; OR = 4.20, 95% CI = 1.46-12.11), as well as in the FES subjects compared to the controls (χ(2) = 8.39, p = 0.004; OR = 4.64, 95% CI = 1.56-13.20). Apgar scores in the first (Apgar 1) and the fifth minute after birth (Apgar 5) were significantly lower in the FES subjects compared to the controls (for Apgar 1 score Z = 4.439, p < 0.0001; for Apgar 5 score Z = 5.250, p < 0.0001). The ARMS subjects demonstrated significantly lower Apgar 5 scores compared to the healthy controls (Z = 3.458, p = 0.0016). The results indicate that OCs and low Apgar 5 score should be considered important factors in identifying subjects at risk of developing psychosis.

  11. Agreement between bovine respiratory disease scoring systems for pre-weaned dairy calves.

    PubMed

    Aly, Sharif S; Love, William J; Williams, Deniece R; Lehenbauer, Terry W; Van Eenennaam, Alison; Drake, Christiana; Kass, Philip H; Farver, Thomas B

    2014-12-01

    Clinical scoring systems have been proposed for respiratory disease diagnosis in calves, including the Wisconsin (WI) system (McGuirk in 2008) which uses five clinical signs, each partitioned into four levels of severity. Recently, we developed the California (CA) bovine respiratory disease (BRD) scoring system requiring less calf handling and consisting of six clinical signs, each classified as normal or abnormal. The objective of this study was to estimate the on-farm agreement between the WI and the CA scoring systems. A total of 100 calves were enrolled on a CA dairy and assessed for BRD case status using the two scoring systems simultaneously. The Kappa coefficient of agreement between these two systems was estimated to be 0.85, which indicated excellent agreement beyond chance. The simpler design and reduced calf handling required by the CA BRD scoring system may make it advantageous for on-farm use.

  12. Weighted risk score-based multifactor dimensionality reduction to detect gene-gene interactions in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Li, Chao-Feng; Luo, Fu-Tian; Zeng, Yi-Xin; Jia, Wei-Hua

    2014-06-13

    Determining the complex relationships between diseases, polymorphisms in human genes and environmental factors is challenging. Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) has been proven to be capable of effectively detecting the statistical patterns of epistasis, although classification accuracy is required for this approach. The imbalanced dataset can cause seriously negative effects on classification accuracy. Moreover, MDR methods cannot quantitatively assess the disease risk of genotype combinations. Hence, we introduce a novel weighted risk score-based multifactor dimensionality reduction (WRSMDR) method that uses the Bayesian posterior probability of polymorphism combinations as a new quantitative measure of disease risk. First, we compared the WRSMDR to the MDR method in simulated datasets. Our results showed that the WRSMDR method had reasonable power to identify high-order gene-gene interactions, and it was more effective than MDR at detecting four-locus models. Moreover, WRSMDR reveals more information regarding the effect of genotype combination on the disease risk, and the result was easier to determine and apply than with MDR. Finally, we applied WRSMDR to a nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) case-control study and identified a statistically significant high-order interaction among three polymorphisms: rs2860580, rs11865086 and rs2305806.

  13. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations. PMID:27482481

  14. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy.

    PubMed

    Swanson, Eric

    2016-06-01

    Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations.

  15. The Impact of SIM on FCAT Reading Scores of Special Education and At-Risk Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matyo-Cepero, Jude

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if special education and at-risk students educated exclusively in a school-within-a-school setting showed improved high-stakes standardized reading test scores after learning the strategic instruction model (SIM) inference strategy. This study was focused on four groups of eighth-grade students attending…

  16. [Lifestyle-related disease and fracture risk].

    PubMed

    Fujiwara, Saeko

    2011-05-01

    Meta analysis of fracture risk in diabetes indicates that the risk of proximal femoral fracture in type-2 diabetes is increased 1.4-1.7 times. It is well known that increased fracture risk is observed in serious kidney disease. However, it has recently been reported that increased fracture risk is also observed in the early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) . The risk of proximal femoral fracture increases in early stages after stroke, but gradually decreases in subsequent stages. Some reports indicate decreased fracture risk in metabolic syndrome and hyperlipidemia and increased fracture risk in hypertension, arterial calcification and ischemic heart disease, while other reports indicate contradictory results.

  17. Automatic Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring on Radiotherapy Planning CT Scans of Breast Cancer Patients: Reproducibility and Association with Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Gernaat, Sofie A. M.; Išgum, Ivana; de Vos, Bob D.; Takx, Richard A. P.; Young-Afat, Danny A.; Rijnberg, Noor; Grobbee, Diederick E.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; de Jong, Pim A.; Leiner, Tim; van den Bongard, Desiree H. J.; Pignol, Jean-Philippe; Verkooijen, Helena M.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a strong and independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study assesses reproducibility of automatic CAC scoring on radiotherapy planning computed tomography (CT) scans of breast cancer patients, and examines its association with traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Methods This study included 561 breast cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy between 2013 and 2015. CAC was automatically scored with an algorithm using supervised pattern recognition, expressed as Agatston scores and categorized into five categories (0, 1–10, 11–100, 101–400, >400). Reproducibility between automatic and manual expert scoring was assessed in 79 patients with automatically determined CAC above zero and 84 randomly selected patients without automatically determined CAC. Interscan reproducibility of automatic scoring was assessed in 294 patients having received two scans (82% on the same day). Association between CAC and CVD risk factors was assessed in 36 patients with CAC scores >100, 72 randomly selected patients with scores 1–100, and 72 randomly selected patients without CAC. Reliability was assessed with linearly weighted kappa and agreement with proportional agreement. Results 134 out of 561 (24%) patients had a CAC score above zero. Reliability of CVD risk categorization between automatic and manual scoring was 0.80 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.74–0.87), and slightly higher for scans with breath-hold. Agreement was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72–0.85). Interscan reliability was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.50–0.72) with an agreement of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80–0.89). Ten out of 36 (27.8%) patients with CAC scores above 100 did not have other cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Automatic CAC scoring on radiotherapy planning CT scans is a reliable method to assess CVD risk based on Agatston scores. One in four breast cancer patients planned for radiotherapy have elevated CAC score. One in three patients with high CAC

  18. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: a comparison of commonly used risk scoring programs.

    PubMed

    Ulusoy, Sükrü

    2013-12-01

    Several calculation modalities are used today for cardiovascular risk assessment. Cardiovascular risk assessment should be performed in all hypertensive patients. Risk assessment methods being based on the population in which the patient lives and the inclusion of factors such as ethnicity variations, socioeconomic status, and medication use will contribute to improvements in risk assessments. The results should be shared with the patient, and modifiable risk factors must be effectively treated.

  19. Assessing the Caprini Score for Risk Assessment of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Medical Patients

    PubMed Central

    Chopra, Vineet; Bernstein, Steven J.; Hofer, Timothy P.; Flanders, Scott A.

    2017-01-01

    Background The optimal approach to assess risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized medical patients is unknown. We examined how well the Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) predicts VTE in hospitalized medical patients. Methods Between January 2011 and March 2014, VTE events and risk factors were collected from non-intensive care unit (ICU) medical patients hospitalized in facilities across Michigan. Following calculation of the Caprini score for each patient, mixed logistic spline regression was used to determine the predicted probabilities of 90-day VTE by receipt of pharmacologic prophylaxis across the Caprini risk continuum. Results A total of 670 (1.05%) of 63,548 eligible patients experienced a VTE event within 90 days of hospital admission. The mean Caprini risk score was 4.94 (range 0 - 28). Predictive modeling revealed a consistent linear increase in VTE for Caprini scores between 1-10; estimates beyond a score of 10 were unstable. Receipt of pharmacologic prophylaxis resulted in a modest decrease in VTE risk (odds ratio=0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.72 - 0.99, p = 0.04). However, the low overall incidence of VTE led to large estimates of numbers needed to treat in order to prevent a single VTE event. A Caprini cut-point demonstrating clear benefit of prophylaxis was not detected. Conclusions Although a linear association between the Caprini RAM and risk of VTE was noted, an extremely low incidence of VTE events in non-ICU medical patients was observed. The Caprini RAM was unable to identify a subset of medical patients who benefit from pharmacologic prophylaxis. PMID:26551977

  20. Risk Factors and Predictive Clinical Scores for Asthma Exacerbations in Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Forno, Erick; Fuhlbrigge, Anne; Soto-Quirós, Manuel E.; Avila, Lydiana; Raby, Benjamin A.; Brehm, John; Sylvia, Jody M.; Weiss, Scott T.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Asthma is a major public health problem that affects millions of children worldwide, and exacerbations account for most of its morbidity and costs. Primary-care providers lack efficient tools to identify children at high risk for exacerbations. We aimed to construct a clinical score to help providers to identify such children. Methods: Our main outcome was severe asthma exacerbation, which was defined as any hospitalization, urgent visit, or systemic steroid course for asthma in the previous year, in children. A clinical score, consisting of a checklist questionnaire made up of 17 yes-no questions regarding asthma symptoms, use of medications and health-care services, and history, was built and validated in a cross-sectional study of Costa Rican children with asthma. It was then evaluated using data from the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP), a longitudinal trial cohort of North American children. Results: Compared with children at average risk for an exacerbation in the Costa Rican validation set, the odds of an exacerbation among children in the low-risk (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.4) and high-risk (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.5-19.2) score categories were significantly reduced and increased, respectively. In CAMP, the hazard ratios for an exacerbation after 1-year follow-up in the low-risk and high-risk groups were 0.6 (95% CI, 0.5-0.7) and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.4), respectively, with similar results at 2 years. Conclusions: The proposed Asthma Exacerbation Clinical Score is simple to use and effective at identifying children at high and low risk for asthma exacerbations. The tool can easily be used in primary-care settings. PMID:20472862

  1. Use of a Diabetes Self-Assessment Score to Predict Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis.

    PubMed

    Kim, Gyuri; Lee, Yong-Ho; Park, Young Min; Kim, Jungghi; Kim, Heesuk; Lee, Byung-Wan; Kang, Eun Seok; Cha, Bong-Soo; Lee, Hyun Chul; Kim, Dae Jung

    2015-07-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are strongly associated with obesity, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes. We recently developed and validated a self-assessment score in the Korean population to identify people at high risk for diabetes. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether the self-assessment risk score for diabetes can also be used to screen for the presence of NAFLD or NASH.The study population included 15,676 subjects (8313 men and 7363 women) over 20 years old who visited the National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital in Korea between 2008 and 2010. Anthropometric, clinical, and laboratory data were analyzed during regular health checkups. Fatty liver disease was diagnosed using ultrasound, discrimination capability was assessed based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and evaluation measures, including sensitivity and specificity, were calculated. Multiple logistic analyses were also performed.We calculated a self-assessed risk score for diabetes (range: 0-11), and a cutoff of ≥5 identified 60% (50%) of men (women) at high risk for NAFLD, reflecting a sensitivity of 79% (85%), a specificity of 60% (66%), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 68% (51%), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 73% (91%), with an AUC of 0.75 (0.82) for men (women). A cutoff point of ≥6 identified 43% (31%) of men (women) at high risk for NASH, reflecting a sensitivity of 80% (86%), a specificity of 64% (75%), a PPV of 30% (28%), and a NPV of 94% (98%), with an AUC of 0.77 (0.86) for men (women). The odds ratios that a 1-point increase in the diabetes risk scores would be associated with an increased risk for NAFLD and NASH were 1.20 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-1.25] and 1.57 (95% CI: 1.49-1.65), respectively, in men, and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21-1.34) and 1.89 (95% CI: 1.73-2.07), respectively, in women.The present study indicates that our self-assessment risk score

  2. Genetic Risk, Adherence to a Healthy Lifestyle, and Coronary Disease.

    PubMed

    Khera, Amit V; Emdin, Connor A; Drake, Isabel; Natarajan, Pradeep; Bick, Alexander G; Cook, Nancy R; Chasman, Daniel I; Baber, Usman; Mehran, Roxana; Rader, Daniel J; Fuster, Valentin; Boerwinkle, Eric; Melander, Olle; Orho-Melander, Marju; Ridker, Paul M; Kathiresan, Sekar

    2016-12-15

    Background Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to individual-level risk of coronary artery disease. The extent to which increased genetic risk can be offset by a healthy lifestyle is unknown. Methods Using a polygenic score of DNA sequence polymorphisms, we quantified genetic risk for coronary artery disease in three prospective cohorts - 7814 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 21,222 in the Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS), and 22,389 in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS) - and in 4260 participants in the cross-sectional BioImage Study for whom genotype and covariate data were available. We also determined adherence to a healthy lifestyle among the participants using a scoring system consisting of four factors: no current smoking, no obesity, regular physical activity, and a healthy diet. Results The relative risk of incident coronary events was 91% higher among participants at high genetic risk (top quintile of polygenic scores) than among those at low genetic risk (bottom quintile of polygenic scores) (hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75 to 2.09). A favorable lifestyle (defined as at least three of the four healthy lifestyle factors) was associated with a substantially lower risk of coronary events than an unfavorable lifestyle (defined as no or only one healthy lifestyle factor), regardless of the genetic risk category. Among participants at high genetic risk, a favorable lifestyle was associated with a 46% lower relative risk of coronary events than an unfavorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.63). This finding corresponded to a reduction in the standardized 10-year incidence of coronary events from 10.7% for an unfavorable lifestyle to 5.1% for a favorable lifestyle in ARIC, from 4.6% to 2.0% in WGHS, and from 8.2% to 5.3% in MDCS. In the BioImage Study, a favorable lifestyle was associated with significantly less coronary-artery calcification within each genetic risk

  3. Total Cerebral Small Vessel Disease MRI Score Is Associated with Cognitive Decline in Executive Function in Patients with Hypertension.

    PubMed

    Uiterwijk, Renske; van Oostenbrugge, Robert J; Huijts, Marjolein; De Leeuw, Peter W; Kroon, Abraham A; Staals, Julie

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Hypertension is a major risk factor for white matter hyperintensities (WMH), lacunes, cerebral microbleeds, and perivascular spaces, which are MRI markers of cerebral small vessel disease (SVD). Studies have shown associations between these individual MRI markers and cognitive functioning and decline. Recently, a "total SVD score" was proposed in which the different MRI markers were combined into one measure of SVD, to capture total SVD-related brain damage. We investigated if this SVD score was associated with cognitive decline over 4 years in patients with hypertension. Methods: In this longitudinal cohort study, 130 hypertensive patients (91 patients with uncomplicated hypertension and 39 hypertensive patients with a lacunar stroke) were included. They underwent a neuropsychological assessment at baseline and after 4 years. The presence of WMH, lacunes, cerebral microbleeds, and perivascular spaces were rated on baseline MRI. Presence of each individual marker was added to calculate the total SVD score (range 0-4) in each patient. Results: Uncorrected linear regression analyses showed associations between SVD score and decline in overall cognition (p = 0.017), executive functioning (p < 0.001) and information processing speed (p = 0.037), but not with memory (p = 0.911). The association between SVD score and decline in overall cognition and executive function remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, education, anxiety and depression score, potential vascular risk factors, patient group, and baseline cognitive performance. Conclusion: Our study shows that a total SVD score can predict cognitive decline, specifically in executive function, over 4 years in hypertensive patients. This emphasizes the importance of considering total brain damage due to SVD.

  4. Timely diagnosis of dairy calf respiratory disease using a standardized scoring system.

    PubMed

    McGuirk, Sheila M; Peek, Simon F

    2014-12-01

    Respiratory disease of young dairy calves is a significant cause of morbidity, mortality, economic loss, and animal welfare concern but there is no gold standard diagnostic test for antemortem diagnosis. Clinical signs typically used to make a diagnosis of respiratory disease of calves are fever, cough, ocular or nasal discharge, abnormal breathing, and auscultation of abnormal lung sounds. Unfortunately, routine screening of calves for respiratory disease on the farm is rarely performed and until more comprehensive, practical and affordable respiratory disease-screening tools such as accelerometers, pedometers, appetite monitors, feed consumption detection systems, remote temperature recording devices, radiant heat detectors, electronic stethoscopes, and thoracic ultrasound are validated, timely diagnosis of respiratory disease can be facilitated using a standardized scoring system. We have developed a scoring system that attributes severity scores to each of four clinical parameters; rectal temperature, cough, nasal discharge, ocular discharge or ear position. A total respiratory score of five points or higher (provided that at least two abnormal parameters are observed) can be used to distinguish affected from unaffected calves. This can be applied as a screening tool twice-weekly to identify pre-weaned calves with respiratory disease thereby facilitating early detection. Coupled with effective treatment protocols, this scoring system will reduce post-weaning pneumonia, chronic pneumonia, and otitis media.

  5. Performance of the Framingham and SCORE cardiovascular risk prediction functions in a non-diabetic population of a Spanish health care centre: a validation study

    PubMed Central

    Barroso, Lourdes Cañón; Muro, Eloísa Cruces; Herrera, Natalio Díaz; Ochoa, Gerardo Fernández; Hueros, Juan Ignacio Calvo; Buitrago, Francisco

    2010-01-01

    Objective To analyse the 10-year performance of the original Framingham coronary risk function and of the SCORE cardiovascular death risk function in a non-diabetic population of 40–65 years of age served by a Spanish healthcare centre. Also, to estimate the percentage of patients who are candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. Design Longitudinal, observational study of a retrospective cohort followed up for 10 years. Setting Primary care health centre. Patients A total of 608 non-diabetic patients of 40–65 years of age (mean 52.8 years, 56.7% women), without evidence of cardiovascular disease were studied. Main outcome measures Coronary risk at 10 years from the time of their recruitment, using the tables based on the original Framingham function, and of their 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease using the SCORE tables. Results The actual incidence rates of coronary and fatal cardiovascular events were 7.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The original Framingham equation over-predicted risk by 64%, while SCORE function over-predicted risk by 40%, but the SCORE model performed better than the Framingham one for discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function classified 18.3% of the population as high risk and SCORE 9.2%. The proportions of patients who would be candidates for lipid-lowering therapy were 31.0% and 23.8% according to the original Framingham and SCORE functions, respectively, and 36.8% and 31.2% for antihypertensive therapy. Conclusion The SCORE function showed better values than the original Framingham function for each of the discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function selected a greater percentage of candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. PMID:20873973

  6. Animals: Disease Risks for People

    MedlinePlus

    ... borne diseases such as ehrlichiosis, babesiosis, Lyme disease , Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever and others. People can also become infected with ... borne diseases such as ehrlichiosis, babesiosis, Lyme disease , Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever and others. The symptoms caused by these diseases ...

  7. Risk Score for Neurological Complications After Endovascular Treatment of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms

    PubMed Central

    Ji, Wenjun; Liu, Aihua; Lv, Xianli; Kang, Huibin; Sun, Liqian; Li, Youxiang; Yang, Xinjian; Jiang, Chuhan

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose— Procedure-related neurological complications are common after endovascular treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms. We aimed to develop a score to quantify individual patient risk. Methods— We retrospectively analyzed consecutive patients who underwent endovascular treatment for unruptured intracranial aneurysms between January 2012 and September 2015. After excluding those who lost to follow-up and those with fusiform unruptured intracranial aneurysms, included patients were randomly divided into a derivation group (60%) and a validation group (40%). A neurological complication was defined as any transient or permanent increase in the modified Rankin Scale score after aneurysm embolization. A risk score for neurological complications was derived from multivariable logistic regression analyses in the derivation group and validated in the validation group. Results— Overall, 1060 patients were included (636 in the derivation group and 424 in the validation group). The incidence of neurological complications was 5.5% (95% confidence interval, 3.8%–7.4%). A 3-point risk score (S-C-C) was derived to predict neurological complications (size [≥10 mm=1], core areas [yes=1], and cerebral ischemic comorbidity [yes=1]). The incidence of neurological complications varied from 2.2% in 0-point patients to 25.0% in 3-point patients. The score demonstrated significant discrimination (C-statistic, 0.714; 95% confidence interval, 0.624–0.804) and calibration (McFadden R2, 0.102) in the derivation group. Excellent prediction, discrimination, and calibration properties were reproduced in the validation group. Conclusions— One in 20 patients will develop neurological complications after endovascular treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms. The S-C-C score may be useful for predicting these adverse outcomes based on variables in daily practice. PMID:26869386

  8. The Converged Experience of Risk and Disease

    PubMed Central

    Aronowitz, Robert A

    2009-01-01

    Context: One underappreciated consequence of modern clinical and public health practices is that the experience of being at risk for disease has been converging with the experience of disease itself. This is especially true for certain chronic diseases, in which early diagnosis and aggressive treatment have led to symptom-less and sign-less disease and in which treatments have largely been aimed at altering the disease's future course. Methods: This article reviews the historical scholarship and medical literature pertinent to transformations in the chronic disease and risk experiences. Findings: The experience of chronic disease increasingly resembles or has become indistinguishable from risk because of (1) new clinical interventions that have directly changed the natural history of disease; (2) increased biological, clinical, and epidemiological knowledge about the risk of chronic disease; (3) the recruitment of larger numbers into chronic disease diagnoses via new screening and diagnostic technology and disease definitions; (4) new ways of conceptualizing efficacy; and (5) intense diagnostic testing and medical interventions. Conclusions: The converged experience of risk and disease has led to some unsettling and generally underappreciated consequences that might be subjected to more clinical and policy reflection and response: (1) some puzzling trends in medical decision making, such as the steep and uniform increase in the numbers of women across a broad spectrum of risk/disease in breast cancer who have opted for prophylactic mastectomies; (2) a larger and highly mobilized disease/risk population, resulting in an expanded market for interventions and greater clout for disease advocates; (3) shifts in the perceived severity of the disease, with ripple effects on how people experience and understand their illness and risk of disease; and (4) interventions that promise both to reduce the risk of disease and to treat its symptoms. PMID:19523124

  9. Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the

  10. Assessment of first and second degree relatives of individuals with bipolar disorder shows increased genetic risk scores in both affected relatives and young At-Risk Individuals.

    PubMed

    Fullerton, Janice M; Koller, Daniel L; Edenberg, Howard J; Foroud, Tatiana; Liu, Hai; Glowinski, Anne L; McInnis, Melvin G; Wilcox, Holly C; Frankland, Andrew; Roberts, Gloria; Schofield, Peter R; Mitchell, Philip B; Nurnberger, John I

    2015-10-01

    Recent studies have revealed the polygenic nature of bipolar disorder (BP), and identified common risk variants associated with illness. However, the role of common polygenic risk in multiplex families has not previously been examined. The present study examined 249 European-ancestry families from the NIMH Genetics Initiative sample, comparing subjects with narrowly defined BP (excluding bipolar II and recurrent unipolar depression; n = 601) and their adult relatives without BP (n = 695). Unrelated adult controls (n = 266) were from the NIMH TGEN control dataset. We also examined a prospective cohort of young (12-30 years) offspring and siblings of individuals with BPI and BPII disorder (at risk; n = 367) and psychiatrically screened controls (n = 229), ascertained from five sites in the US and Australia and assessed with standardized clinical protocols. Thirty-two disease-associated SNPs from the PGC-BP Working Group report (2011) were genotyped and additive polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived. We show increased PRS in adult cases compared to unrelated controls (P = 3.4 × 10(-5) , AUC = 0.60). In families with a high-polygenic load (PRS score ≥32 in two or more subjects), PRS distinguished cases with BPI/SAB from other relatives (P = 0.014, RR = 1.32). Secondly, a higher PRS was observed in at-risk youth, regardless of affected status, compared to unrelated controls (GEE-χ(2) = 5.15, P = 0.012). This report is the first to explore common polygenic risk in multiplex families, albeit using only a small number of robustly associated risk variants. We show that individuals with BP have a higher load of common disease-associated variants than unrelated controls and first-degree relatives, and illustrate the potential utility of PRS assessment in a family context.

  11. Walking and type 2 diabetes risk using CANRISK scores among older adults.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Steven T; Eurich, Dean T; Lytvyak, Ellina; Mladenovic, Ana; Taylor, Lorian M; Johnson, Jeffrey A; Vallance, Jeff K

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the association between pedometer-assessed steps and type 2 diabetes risk using the Public Health Agency of Canada-developed 16-item Canadian Diabetes Risk Questionnaire (CANRISK) among a large population-based sample of older adults across Alberta, Canada. To achieve our study objective, adults without type 2 diabetes (N = 689) aged 55 years and older provided demographic data and CANRISK scores through computer-assisted telephone interviews between September and November 2012. Respondents also wore a step pedometer over 3 consecutive days to estimate average daily steps. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between achieving 7500 steps/day and risk of diabetes (low vs. moderate and high). Overall, 41% were male, average age was 63.4 (SD 5.5) years, body mass index was 26.7 (SD 5.0) kg/m(2), and participants averaged 5671 (SD 3529) steps/day. All respondents indicated they were capable of walking for at least 10 min unassisted. CANRISK scores ranged from 13-60, with 18% in the low-risk category (<21). After adjustment, those not achieving 7500 steps/day (n = 507) were more than twice as likely to belong to the higher risk categories for type 2 diabetes compared with those walking ≥7500 steps/day (n = 182) (73.6% vs. 26.4%; odds ratio: 2.37; 95% confidence interval: 1.58 - 3.57). Among older adults without diabetes, daily steps were strongly and inversely associated with diabetes risk using the CANRISK score. Walking remains an important modifiable risk factor target for type 2 diabetes and achieving at least 7500 steps/day may be a reasonable target for older adults.

  12. A metabolic syndrome severity score: A tool to quantify cardio-metabolic risk factors.

    PubMed

    Wiley, Joshua F; Carrington, Melinda J

    2016-07-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of cardio-metabolic risk factors and is associated with increased mortality. There is no standard, validated way to assess the severity of aggregated metabolic syndrome risk factors. Cardiovascular and diabetes risk factor data came from two studies conducted in Australia from 2006 to 2010 in adults aged 18 or above. In medication free adults, sex-specific clinical thresholds and Principal Component Analysis were used to develop a formula to calculate a metabolic syndrome severity score (MetSSS). These scores were compared to scores derived using the same process in subgroups by sex, age, medication status, and time. We also examined the MetSSS in relation to other known risk factors. In 2125 adults (57.6±14.7years of age), the MetSSS ranged from 0 to 8.7 with a mean of 2.6. There were strong correlations (.95-.99) between the MetSSS in medication free adults and the MetSSS calculated from subgroups. MetSSS predicted medication initiation for hypertension, hyperlipidemia and hyperglycemia over six months (OR=1.31, 95% CI [1.00-1.70], per MetSSS unit, p=.043). Lower education, medication prescription, history of smoking and age were associated with higher MetSSS (all p<.05). Higher physical but not mental health quality of life was associated with lower MetSSS (p<.001). A standardized formula to measure cardio-metabolic risk factor severity was constructed and demonstrated expected relations with known risk factors. The use of the MetSSS is recommended as a measure of change within individuals in cardio-metabolic risk factors and to guide treatment and management.

  13. Investigation of methods for calibration of classifier scores to probability of disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Weijie; Sahiner, Berkman; Samuelson, Frank; Pezeshk, Aria; Petrick, Nicholas

    2015-03-01

    Classifier scores in many diagnostic devices, such as computer-aided diagnosis systems, are usually on an arbitrary scale, the meaning of which is unclear. Calibration of classifier scores to a meaningful scale such as the probability of disease is potentially useful when such scores are used by a physician or another algorithm. In this work, we investigated the properties of two methods for calibrating classifier scores to probability of disease. The first is a semiparametric method in which the likelihood ratio for each score is estimated based on a semiparametric proper receiver operating characteristic model, and then an estimate of the probability of disease is obtained using the Bayes theorem assuming a known prevalence of disease. The second method is nonparametric in which isotonic regression via the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm is used. We employed the mean square error (MSE) and the Brier score to evaluate the two methods. We evaluate the methods under two paradigms: (a) the dataset used to construct the score-to-probability mapping function is used to calculate the performance metric (MSE or Brier score) (resubstitution); (b) an independent test dataset is used to calculate the performance metric (independent). Under our simulation conditions, the semiparametric method is found to be superior to the nonparametric method at small to medium sample sizes and the two methods appear to converge at large sample sizes. Our simulation results also indicate that the resubstitution bias may depend on the performance metric and, for the semiparametric method, the resubstitution bias is small when a reasonable number of cases (> 100 cases per class) are available.

  14. Early Cannabis Use, Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia, and Brain Maturation in Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    French, Leon; Gray, Courtney; Leonard, Gabriel; Perron, Michel; Pike, G. Bruce; Richer, Louis; Séguin, Jean R.; Veillette, Suzanne; Evans, C. John; Artiges, Eric; Banaschewski, Tobias; Bokde, Arun W. L.; Bromberg, Uli; Bruehl, Ruediger; Buchel, Christian; Cattrell, Anna; Conrod, Patricia J.; Flor, Herta; Frouin, Vincent; Gallinat, Jurgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Lemaitre, Herve; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Orfanos, Dimitri Papadopoulos; Pangelinan, Melissa Marie; Poustka, Luise; Rietschel, Marcella; Smolka, Michael N.; Walter, Henrik; Whelan, Robert; Timpson, Nic J.; Schumann, Gunter; Smith, George Davey; Pausova, Zdenka; Paus, Tomáš

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Cannabis use during adolescence is known to increase the risk for schizophrenia in men. Sex differences in the dynamics of brain maturation during adolescence may be of particular importance with regard to vulnerability of the male brain to cannabis exposure. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the association between cannabis use and cortical maturation in adolescents is moderated by a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Observation of 3 population-based samples included initial analysis in 1024 adolescents of both sexes from the Canadian Saguenay Youth Study (SYS) and follow-up in 426 adolescents of both sexes from the IMAGEN Study from 8 European cities and 504 male youth from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) based in England. A total of 1577 participants (aged 12–21 years; 899 [57.0%] male) had (1) information about cannabis use; (2) imaging studies of the brain; and (3) a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia across 108 genetic loci identified by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Data analysis was performed from March 1 through December 31, 2014. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cortical thickness derived from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images. Linear regression tests were used to assess the relationships between cannabis use, cortical thickness, and risk score. RESULTS Across the 3 samples of 1574 participants, a negative association was observed between cannabis use in early adolescence and cortical thickness in male participants with a high polygenic risk score. This observation was not the case for low-risk male participants or for the low- or high-risk female participants. Thus, in SYS male participants, cannabis use interacted with risk score vis-à-vis cortical thickness (P = .009); higher scores were associated with lower thickness only in males who used cannabis. Similarly, in the IMAGEN male participants, cannabis use interacted with increased risk score vis-à-vis a change in

  15. Usefulness of Calcium Scoring as a Screening Examination in Patients With a History of Kawasaki Disease.

    PubMed

    Kahn, Andrew M; Budoff, Matthew J; Daniels, Lori B; Oyamada, Jun; Gordon, John B; Burns, Jane C

    2017-04-01

    Subsets of patients with a remote history of Kawasaki disease (KD) have coronary artery aneurysms with associated risks of late morbidity. In a pilot study, we previously showed that computed tomography (CT) coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring detects late CAC in patients with aneurysms and a remote history of KD. We performed CT calcium volume scoring in 166 subjects (median age 19.5 years) with a remote history of KD (median interval from KD to CT 15.1 years). Coronary arteries were classified as normal (n = 100), transiently dilated (n = 23), persistently dilated (n = 10), remodeled aneurysm (n = 9), or aneurysm (n = 24) based on echocardiography. All subjects with coronary arteries classified as normal, persistently dilated, or remodeled aneurysm had zero CAC. Of the 24 subjects with coronary aneurysms, all but 5 had CAC (median volume 542 mm(3); range 17 to 8,218 mm(3)). For subjects imaged ≥9 years after their acute KD (n = 144), the presence of CAC had a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 100% for detecting coronary artery abnormalities (defined as coronary artery aneurysm and/or stenosis). In conclusion, coronary calcification was not observed in subjects with a history of KD who had normal coronary arteries by echocardiography during the acute phase. Coronary calcification, which may be severe, occurs late in patients with coronary aneurysms. Therefore, CAC scanning may be a useful tool to screen patients with a remote history of KD or suspected KD and unknown coronary artery status.

  16. Comparison of SCORE-predicted risk of death due to cardiovascular events in women before and after menopause

    PubMed Central

    Brzostek, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Approximately 55% of women in Europe die from cardiovascular events, mostly as a result of coronary diseases and cerebral stroke. There is a 10-year shift in the cardiovascular risk between women and men. The risk in a 55-year-old female patient is similar to that of a 45-year-old man, thus the risk among women increases rapidly around the age of 50, when menopause prevails to occur. The purpose of the study was to assess and compare the SCORE-predicted risk of a fatal cardiovascular incident in pre- and postmenopausal women. Material and methods The cross-sectional study was conducted as part of community nursing practice. It covered 219 women – inhabitants of Krakow, aged from 30 to 65, without clinically validated cardiovascular diseases of arteriosclerotic and/or diabetic origin, who volunteered to take part in the study. The group was divided into three subgroups: K1 – menstruating women (n = 113), K2a – women after natural menopause (n = 88), and K2b – women after surgical menopause (n = 18). The study made use of a lifestyle questionnaire, which concerned the social and economic status, and lifestyle habits including tobacco smoking. Arterial blood pressure was measured, and total cholesterol concentration in blood (mmol/l) was recorded. Results A high (≥ 5%) level of the SCORE risk was discovered in 14.3% of postmenopausal women, as compared to 0.9% in the group of menstruating women. An average risk of a fatal cardiovascular incident during the following 10 years was significantly higher among women from groups K2a (2.61%) and K2b (2.32%) as compared to K1 – menstruating women (0.38%). No difference was, however, discovered between groups of naturally (K2a) and surgically menopausal women (K2b). Conclusions A significantly higher risk of SCORE-predicted death caused by a cardiovascular incident, as compared to the group of women in the premenopausal period, is characteristic of women in the postmenopausal period. PMID:26528104

  17. A "bone marrow score" for predicting hematological disease in immunocompetent patients with fevers of unknown origin.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hao-Yuan; Yang, Ching-Fen; Chiou, Tzeon-Jye; Yang, Sheng-Hsiang; Gau, Jyh-Pyng; Yu, Yuan-Bin; Liu, Chun-Yu; Liu, Jin-Hwang; Chen, Po-Min; Hsu, Hui-Chi; Fung, Chang-Phone; Tzeng, Cheng-Hwai; Hsiao, Liang-Tsai

    2014-12-01

    Delayed diagnosis of hematological malignancies in immunocompetent patients with fever of unknown origin (FUO) remains an exhausting challenge for non-hematologist physicians. This retrospective cohort study aimed to establish a scoring system, "bone marrow (BM) score", to identify FUO patients who require early bone marrow biopsy (BMB) to diagnose hematological disease. Two cohorts, comprising 85 (training) and 20 (validation) eligible immunocompetent patients, with FUOs diagnosed between January 1, 2006 and July 31, 2013, underwent BMBs and were enrolled in the study. Demographic, laboratory, imaging, diagnostic, and outcome data were collected and retrospectively analyzed. Factors associated with hematological etiologies diagnosed using BMBs in the training cohort were identified and scored according to the relative hazards. These were further validated using the validation cohort. For the training cohort, 29 of 85 (34.1%) patients had hematological etiologies diagnosed using BMB. Seven factors significantly predicted the diagnostic yield of hematological diseases in the BM and were scored, with the 6 points for leucoerythroblastic changes in peripheral blood smears, 5.5 for elevated ferritin level (>1000 ng/mL), 4 for splenomegaly, 2 for thrombocytopenia, 1.5 for each of elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels and anemia, and 1 for neutropenia. When the cut-off value of the scoring system was set to 6, its sensitivity and specificity to diagnose hematological diseases in the BM of immunocompetent FUO patients were 93% and 58%, respectively. For the validation cohort, 7 of 20 (35%) patients had hematological disease, and all had BM scores higher than the cut-off, with the sensitivity and specificity at 100% and 77%, respectively. As immunocompetent FUO patients with hematological disease have poor prognoses, the "BM score" is valuable for non-hematologist physicians to identify immunocompetent FUO patients requiring early BMB.

  18. Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Escott-Price, Valentina; Sims, Rebecca; Bannister, Christian; Harold, Denise; Vronskaya, Maria; Majounie, Elisa; Badarinarayan, Nandini; Morgan, Kevin; Passmore, Peter; Holmes, Clive; Powell, John; Brayne, Carol; Gill, Michael; Mead, Simon; Goate, Alison; Cruchaga, Carlos; Lambert, Jean-Charles; van Duijn, Cornelia; Maier, Wolfgang; Ramirez, Alfredo; Holmans, Peter; Jones, Lesley; Hardy, John; Seshadri, Sudha; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Amouyel, Philippe; Williams, Julie

    2015-12-01

    The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer's disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer's disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer's disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer's disease (P = 4.9 × 10(-26)). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10(-19)). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77-80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer's disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer's disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes.

  19. Total Cerebral Small Vessel Disease MRI Score Is Associated with Cognitive Decline in Executive Function in Patients with Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Uiterwijk, Renske; van Oostenbrugge, Robert J.; Huijts, Marjolein; De Leeuw, Peter W.; Kroon, Abraham A.; Staals, Julie

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Hypertension is a major risk factor for white matter hyperintensities (WMH), lacunes, cerebral microbleeds, and perivascular spaces, which are MRI markers of cerebral small vessel disease (SVD). Studies have shown associations between these individual MRI markers and cognitive functioning and decline. Recently, a “total SVD score” was proposed in which the different MRI markers were combined into one measure of SVD, to capture total SVD-related brain damage. We investigated if this SVD score was associated with cognitive decline over 4 years in patients with hypertension. Methods: In this longitudinal cohort study, 130 hypertensive patients (91 patients with uncomplicated hypertension and 39 hypertensive patients with a lacunar stroke) were included. They underwent a neuropsychological assessment at baseline and after 4 years. The presence of WMH, lacunes, cerebral microbleeds, and perivascular spaces were rated on baseline MRI. Presence of each individual marker was added to calculate the total SVD score (range 0–4) in each patient. Results: Uncorrected linear regression analyses showed associations between SVD score and decline in overall cognition (p = 0.017), executive functioning (p < 0.001) and information processing speed (p = 0.037), but not with memory (p = 0.911). The association between SVD score and decline in overall cognition and executive function remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, education, anxiety and depression score, potential vascular risk factors, patient group, and baseline cognitive performance. Conclusion: Our study shows that a total SVD score can predict cognitive decline, specifically in executive function, over 4 years in hypertensive patients. This emphasizes the importance of considering total brain damage due to SVD. PMID:28018214

  20. Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Chinese Adults: A Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Cheng; Lin, Xiao-Ling; Fan, Yu-Ying; Liu, Yuan-Ting; Zhang, Xing-Lan; Lu, Yun-Kai; Xu, Chun-Hua; Chen, Yu-Ming

    2016-01-01

    Many studies show that dietary factors may affect the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We examined the association between overall diet quality and NPC risk in a Chinese population. This case-control study included 600 NPC patients and 600 matched controls between 2009 and 2011 in Guangzhou, China. Habitual dietary intake and various covariates were assessed via face-to-face interviews. Diet quality scores were calculated according to the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), the alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHEI), the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I), and the alternate Mediterranean Diet Score (aMed). After adjustment for various lifestyle and dietary factors, greater diet quality scores on the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I—but not on the aMed—showed a significant association with a lower risk of NPC (p-trends, <0.001–0.001). The odds ratios (95% confidence interval) comparing the extreme quartiles of the three significant scores were 0.47 (0.32–0.68) (HEI-2005), 0.48 (0.33–0.70) (aHEI), and 0.43 (0.30–0.62) (DQI-I). In gender-stratified analyses, the favorable association remained significant in men but not in women. We found that adherence to the predefined dietary patterns represented by the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I scales predicted a lower risk of NPC in adults from south China, especially in men. PMID:26927167

  1. Correlation between the intima-media thickness and Framingham risk score in patients with sleep apnea syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Conkbayır, Işık; Kuru, Aslıhan; Fırat, Hikmet; Sökücü, Sinem Nedime; Dalar, Levent; Ergün, Recai; Uzunmehmetoğlu, Çağla Pınar; Ergün, Dilek; Ardıc, Sadık

    2013-01-01

    Background In the present study, we want to demonstrate the correlation between obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) whose independent effect on carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) was demonstrated, with Framingham risk score (FRS) showing the overall cardiovascular risk. Methods IMT of the carotid artery was measured with ultrasonography and 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) was defined with FRS in 90 consecutive patients referred to our sleep clinic and who underwent polysomnography (PSG), with vascular risk factors and without a clinical atherosclerotic disease. Results IMT and FRS were found to be statistically significantly increased in the severe OSAS group compared to the other two groups. Carotid IMT was found to be significantly positively correlated with, apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), oxygen desaturation index (ODI) and time duration with oxygen saturation (SpO2) <90%, and negatively correlated with minimum oxygen saturation at sleep (minimum SpO2) and mean SpO2. In control and mild OSAS group IMT and FRS have significantly positive correlation (r: 0.501, P: 0.027; r: 0.625, P<0.001), while in severe OSAS group no significant correlation was detected between IMT and FRS (r: 0.321, P: 0.06). In the regression analysis AHI and ODI were found to be an independent predictor of carotid IMT. ODI was found to have an independent effect on the progression of atherosclerosis. Conclusions Increased carotid IMT in severe OSAS group could not be explained with the classical risk factors. In this respect, FRS might be insufficient to determine correctly the cardiovascular risk and protection strategies against the disease in OSAS patients. PMID:24409351

  2. Association of a 62 Variant Type 2 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score with Markers of Subclinical Atherosclerosis: A Transethnic, Multicenter Study

    PubMed Central

    Dauriz, Marco; Porneala, Bianca C.; Guo, Xiuqing; Bielak, Lawrence F.; Peyser, Patricia A.; Durant, Nefertiti H.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.; Bonadonna, Riccardo C.; Bonora, Enzo; Bowden, Donald W.; Florez, Jose C.; Fornage, Myriam; Hivert, Marie-France; Jacobs, David R.; Kabagambe, Edmond K.; Lewis, Cora E.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Rasmussen-Torvik, Laura J.; Rich, Stephen S.; Vassy, Jason L.; Yao, Jie; Carr, Jeffrey J.; Kardia, Sharon L.R.; Siscovick, David; O'Donnell, Christopher J.; Rotter, Jerome I.; Dupuis, Josée; Meigs, James B.

    2015-01-01

    Background Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) share risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis (SCA) predicts events in those with and without diabetes. T2D genetic risk may predict both T2D and SCA. We hypothesized that greater T2D genetic risk is associated with higher extent of SCA. Methods and Results In a cross-sectional analysis including up to 9,210 European Americans, 3,773 African Americans, 1,446 Hispanic Americans and 773 Chinese Americans without known CVD and enrolled in the FHS, CARDIA, MESA and GENOA studies, we tested a 62 T2D-loci genetic risk score (GRS62) for association with measures of SCA, including coronary artery (CACS) or abdominal aortic calcium score, common (CCA-IMT) and internal carotid artery intima-media thickness, and ankle-brachial index (ABI). We used ancestry-stratified linear regression models, with random effects accounting for family relatedness when appropriate, applying a genetic-only (adjusted for sex) and a full SCA risk factors adjusted model (significance = p<0.01 = 0.05/5, number of traits analyzed). An inverse association with CACS in MESA Europeans (fully-adjusted p=0.004) and with CCA-IMT in FHS (p=0.009) was not confirmed in other study cohorts, either separately or in meta-analysis. Secondary analyses showed no consistent associations with β-cell and insulin resistance sub-GRS in FHS and CARDIA. Conclusions SCA does not have a major genetic component linked to a burden of 62 T2D loci identified by large genome-wide association studies. A shared T2D-SCA genetic basis, if any, might become apparent from better functional information about both T2D and CVD risk loci. PMID:25805414

  3. External assessment of the Early Mortality Risk Score in patients with adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy

    PubMed Central

    Joliat, Gaëtan-Romain; Petermann, David; Demartines, Nicolas; Schäfer, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Background Pancreaticoduodenectomies (PD) still have a substantial mortality rate. Recently, different scores have been published to predict the mortality risk pre-operatively after PD. This retrospective study was designed to perform an external assessment of an Early Mortality Risk Score (EMRS). Methods From 2000 to 2012, all PD cases performed at our institution were documented. Only patients treated for pancreatic head adenocarcinomas were included. Survival time and EMRS (based on age, tumour size, tumour differentiation and comorbidities) were calculated for every patient. Relative risks (RR) of early death 9 and 12 months after PD were then calculated. Results Of 270 PD for various aetiologies, 120 PD for adenocarcinomas were included. The median follow-up was 37 months, and the overall median survival was 19 months. EMRS of 4 showed a mortality RR of 5.1 at 9 months (P = 0.048) and of 4.5 at 12 months (P = 0.020). Conclusions EMRS of 4 is a predictor of tumour-related mortality at 9 and 12 months after PD for adenocarcinoma. The EMRS was externally assessed in our patient cohort and can be implemented in clinical practice. Clinical implications of this score still need to be studied. PMID:25906918

  4. Genetic risk score analysis indicates migraine with and without comorbid depression are genetically different disorders.

    PubMed

    Ligthart, Lannie; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Lewis, Cathryn M; Farmer, Anne E; Craig, Ian W; Breen, Gerome; Willemsen, Gonneke; Vink, Jacqueline M; Middeldorp, Christel M; Byrne, Enda M; Heath, Andrew C; Madden, Pamela A F; Pergadia, Michele L; Montgomery, Grant W; Martin, Nicholas G; Penninx, Brenda W J H; McGuffin, Peter; Boomsma, Dorret I; Nyholt, Dale R

    2014-02-01

    Migraine and major depressive disorder (MDD) are comorbid, moderately heritable and to some extent influenced by the same genes. In a previous paper, we suggested the possibility of causality (one trait causing the other) underlying this comorbidity. We present a new application of polygenic (genetic risk) score analysis to investigate the mechanisms underlying the genetic overlap of migraine and MDD. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on data from two discovery samples in which genome-wide association analyses (GWA) were performed for migraine and MDD, respectively. The Australian Twin Migraine GWA study (N = 6,350) included 2,825 migraine cases and 3,525 controls, 805 of whom met the diagnostic criteria for MDD. The RADIANT GWA study (N = 3,230) included 1,636 MDD cases and 1,594 controls. Genetic risk scores for migraine and for MDD were used to predict pure and comorbid forms of migraine and MDD in an independent Dutch target sample (NTR-NESDA, N = 2,966), which included 1,476 MDD cases and 1,058 migraine cases (723 of these individuals had both disorders concurrently). The observed patterns of prediction suggest that the 'pure' forms of migraine and MDD are genetically distinct disorders. The subgroup of individuals with comorbid MDD and migraine were genetically most similar to MDD patients. These results indicate that in at least a subset of migraine patients with MDD, migraine may be a symptom or consequence of MDD.

  5. The bleeding score predicts clinical outcomes and replacement therapy in adults with von Willebrand disease.

    PubMed

    Federici, Augusto B; Bucciarelli, Paolo; Castaman, Giancarlo; Mazzucconi, Maria G; Morfini, Massimo; Rocino, Angiola; Schiavoni, Mario; Peyvandi, Flora; Rodeghiero, Francesco; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

    2014-06-26

    Analyses of the bleeding tendency by means of the bleeding score (BS) have been proposed until now to confirm diagnosis but not to predict clinical outcomes in patients with inherited von Willebrand disease (VWD). We prospectively followed up, for 1 year, 796 Italian patients with different types of VWD to determine whether the previous BS of European VWD1 is useful to predict the occurrence of spontaneous bleeds severe enough to require replacement therapy with desmopressin (DDAVP) and/or von Willebrand factor (VWF)/factor VIII concentrates. Among the 796 patients included, 75 (9.4%) needed treatment of 232 spontaneous bleeding events. BS >10 and VWF:ristocetin cofactor activity <10 U/dL were associated with the risk of bleeding, but only a BS >10 remained highly associated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model (adjusted hazard ratio: 7.27 [95% confidence interval, 3.83-13.83]). Although the bleeding event-free survival was different in VWD types, only a BS >10 could predict for each type which patient had bleeding events severe enough to require treatment with DDAVP and/or concentrates. Therefore, BS can be considered a simple predictor of clinical outcomes of VWD and may identify patients needing intensive therapeutic regimens.

  6. Development and validation of a risk score for advanced colorectal adenoma recurrence after endoscopic resection

    PubMed Central

    Facciorusso, Antonio; Di Maso, Marianna; Serviddio, Gaetano; Vendemiale, Gianluigi; Muscatiello, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To develop and validate a risk score for advanced colorectal adenoma (ACA) recurrence after endoscopic polypectomy. METHODS: Out of 3360 patients who underwent colon polypectomy at University of Foggia between 2004 and 2008, data of 843 patients with 1155 ACAs was retrospectively reviewed. Surveillance intervals were scheduled by guidelines at 3 years and primary endpoint was considered 3-year ACA recurrence. Baseline clinical parameters and the main features of ACAs were entered into a Cox regression analysis and variables with P < 0.05 in the univariate analysis were then tested as candidate variables into a stepwise Cox regression model (conditional backward selection). The regression coefficients of the Cox regression model were multiplied by 2 and rounded in order to obtain easy to use point numbers facilitating the calculation of the score. To avoid overoptimistic results due to model fitting and evaluation in the same dataset, we performed an internal 10-fold cross-validation by means of bootstrap sampling. RESULTS: Median lesion size was 16 mm (12-23) while median number of adenomas was 2.5 (1-3), whereof the number of ACAs was 1.5 (1-2). At 3 years after polypectomy, recurrence was observed in 229 ACAs (19.8%), of which 157 (13.5%) were metachronous neoplasms and 72 (6.2%) local recurrences. Multivariate analysis, after exclusion of the variable “type of resection” due to its collinearity with other predictive factors, confirmed lesion size, number of ACAs and grade of dysplasia as significantly associated to the primary outcome. The score was then built by multiplying the regression coefficients times 2 and the cut-off point 5 was selected by means of a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis. In particular, 248 patients with 365 ACAs fell in the higher-risk group (score ≥ 5) where 3-year recurrence was detected in 174 ACAs (47.6%) whereas the remaining 595 patients with 690 ACAs were included in the low-risk group (score < 5) where 3

  7. Multivariate injury risk criteria and injury probability scores for fractures to the distal radius.

    PubMed

    Burkhart, Timothy A; Andrews, David M; Dunning, Cynthia E

    2013-03-15

    The purpose of this study was to develop a multivariate distal radius injury risk prediction model that incorporates dynamic loading variables in multiple directions, and interpret the distal radius failure data in order to establish injury probability thresholds. Repeated impacts with increasing intensity were applied to the distal third of eight human cadaveric radius specimens (mean (SD) age=61.9 (9.7)) until injury occurred. Crack (non-propagating damage) and fracture (specimen separated into at least two fragments) injury events were recorded. Best subsets analysis was performed to find the best multivariate injury risk model. Force-only risk models were also determined for comparison. Cumulative distribution functions were developed from the parameters of a Weibull analysis and the forces and risk scores (i.e., values calculated from the injury risk models) from 10% to 90% probability were calculated. According to the adjusted R(2), variance inflation factor and p-values, the model that best predicted the crack event included medial/lateral impulse, Fz load rate, impact velocity and the natural logarithm of Fz (Adj. R(2)=0.698), while the best predictive model of the fracture event included medial/lateral impulse, impact velocity and peak Fz (Adj. R(2)=0.845). The multivariate models predicted injury risk better than both the Fz-only crack (Adj. R(2)=0.551) and fracture (Adj. R(2)=0.293) models. Risk scores of 0.5 and 0.6 corresponded to 10% failure probability for the crack and fracture events, respectively. The inclusion of medial/lateral impulse and impact velocity in both crack and fracture models, and Fz load rate in the crack model, underscores the dynamic nature of these events. This study presents a method capable of developing a set of distal radius fracture prediction models that can be used in the assessment and development of distal radius injury prevention interventions.

  8. Development of a claims-based risk score to identify obese individuals.

    PubMed

    Clark, Jeanne M; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Bolen, Shari D; Shore, Andrew D; Goodwin, Suzanne M; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2010-08-01

    Obesity is underdiagnosed, hampering system-based health promotion and research. Our objective was to develop and validate a claims-based risk model to identify obese persons using medical diagnosis and prescription records. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of de-identified claims data from enrollees of 3 Blue Cross Blue Shield plans who completed a health risk assessment capturing height and weight. The final sample of 71,057 enrollees was randomly split into 2 subsamples for development and validation of the obesity risk model. Using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups case-mix/predictive risk methodology, we categorized study members' diagnosis (ICD) codes. Logistic regression was used to determine which claims-based risk markers were associated with a body mass index (BMI) > or = 35 kg/m(2). The sensitivities of the scores > or =90(th) percentile to detect obesity were 26% to 33%, while the specificities were >90%. The areas under the receiver operator curve ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. In contrast, a diagnosis of obesity or an obesity medication alone had very poor sensitivity (10% and 1%, respectively); the obesity risk model identified an additional 22% of obese members. Varying the percentile cut-point from the 70(th) to the 99(th) percentile resulted in positive predictive values ranging from 15.5 to 59.2. An obesity risk score was highly specific for detecting a BMI > or = 35 kg/m(2) and substantially increased the detection of obese members beyond a provider-coded obesity diagnosis or medication claim. This model could be used for obesity care management and health promotion or for obesity-related research.

  9. A 17-gene stemness score for rapid determination of risk in acute leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Ng, Stanley W K; Mitchell, Amanda; Kennedy, James A; Chen, Weihsu C; McLeod, Jessica; Ibrahimova, Narmin; Arruda, Andrea; Popescu, Andreea; Gupta, Vikas; Schimmer, Aaron D; Schuh, Andre C; Yee, Karen W; Bullinger, Lars; Herold, Tobias; Görlich, Dennis; Büchner, Thomas; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Berdel, Wolfgang E; Wörmann, Bernhard; Cheok, Meyling; Preudhomme, Claude; Dombret, Herve; Metzeler, Klaus; Buske, Christian; Löwenberg, Bob; Valk, Peter J M; Zandstra, Peter W; Minden, Mark D; Dick, John E; Wang, Jean C Y

    2016-12-15

    Refractoriness to induction chemotherapy and relapse after achievement of remission are the main obstacles to cure in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). After standard induction chemotherapy, patients are assigned to different post-remission strategies on the basis of cytogenetic and molecular abnormalities that broadly define adverse, intermediate and favourable risk categories. However, some patients do not respond to induction therapy and another subset will eventually relapse despite the lack of adverse risk factors. There is an urgent need for better biomarkers to identify these high-risk patients before starting induction chemotherapy, to enable testing of alternative induction strategies in clinical trials. The high rate of relapse in AML has been attributed to the persistence of leukaemia stem cells (LSCs), which possess a number of stem cell properties, including quiescence, that are linked to therapy resistance. Here, to develop predictive and/or prognostic biomarkers related to stemness, we generated a list of genes that are differentially expressed between 138 LSC(+) and 89 LSC(-) cell fractions from 78 AML patients validated by xenotransplantation. To extract the core transcriptional components of stemness relevant to clinical outcomes, we performed sparse regression analysis of LSC gene expression against survival in a large training cohort, generating a 17-gene LSC score (LSC17). The LSC17 score was highly prognostic in five independent cohorts comprising patients of diverse AML subtypes (n = 908) and contributed greatly to accurate prediction of initial therapy resistance. Patients with high LSC17 scores had poor outcomes with current treatments including allogeneic stem cell transplantation. The LSC17 score provides clinicians with a rapid and powerful tool to identify AML patients who do not benefit from standard therapy and who should be enrolled in trials evaluating novel upfront or post-remission strategies.

  10. Contribution of the long-term care insurance certificate for predicting 1-year all-cause readmission compared with validated risk scores in elderly patients with heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Takahashi, Kayo; Saito, Makoto; Inaba, Shinji; Morofuji, Toru; Aisu, Hiroe; Sumimoto, Takumi; Ogimoto, Akiyoshi; Ikeda, Shuntaro; Higaki, Jitsuo

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Readmission is a common and serious problem associated with heart failure (HF). Unfortunately, conventional risk models have limited predictive value for predicting readmission. The recipients of long-term care insurance (LTCI) are frail and have mental and physical impairments. We hypothesised that adjustment of the conventional risk score with an LTCI certificate enables a more accurate appreciation of readmission for HF. Methods We investigated 452 patients with HF who were followed up for 1 year to determine all-cause readmission. We obtained their clinical and socioeconomic data, including LTCI. The three clinical risk scores used in our evaluation were Keenan (2008), Krumholz (2000) and Charlson (1994). We used net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess the incremental benefit. Results Patients with LTCI were significantly older, and had a higher prevalence of cerebrovascular disease and dementia than those without LTCI. One-year all-cause readmission (n=193, 43%) was significantly associated with all risk scores, receiving LTCI and the category of LTCI. Receiving LTCI was associated with readmission independent of all risk scores (HR, 1.59 to 1.63; all p<0.01). Adding LTCI to all risk scores led to a significantly improved reclassification, which was observed in the subgroup of patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (≥50%) but not in the subgroup with reduced ejection fraction (<50%). Conclusions Possession of an LTCI certificate was independently associated with 1-year all-cause readmission after adjusting for validated clinical risk scores in patients with HF. Adding LTCI status significantly improved the model performance for readmission risk, particularly in patients with HF and preserved ejection fraction. PMID:27933194

  11. The development, validation, and utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS).

    PubMed

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Palmer, Jerry P

    2015-08-01

    This report details the development, validation, and utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score (DPTRS) for type 1 diabetes (T1D). Proportional hazards regression was used to develop the DPTRS model which includes the glucose and C-peptide sums from oral glucose tolerance tests at 30, 60, 90, and 120 min, the log fasting C-peptide, age, and the log BMI. The DPTRS was externally validated in the TrialNet Natural History Study cohort (TNNHS). In a study of the application of the DPTRS, the findings showed that it could be used to identify normoglycemic individuals who were at a similar risk for T1D as those with dysglycemia. The DPTRS could also be used to identify lower risk dysglycemic individuals. Risk estimates of individuals deemed to be at higher risk according to DPTRS values did not differ significantly between the DPT-1 and the TNNHS; whereas, the risk estimates for those with dysglycemia were significantly higher in DPT-1. Individuals with very high DPTRS values were found to be at such marked risk for T1D that they could reasonably be considered to be in a pre-diabetic state. The findings indicate that the DPTRS has utility in T1D prevention trials and for identifying pre-diabetic individuals.

  12. Risk-assessment score for screening diabetes mellitus among Omani adults

    PubMed Central

    Amirtharaj, Anandhi; Venkatesaperumal, Ramesh; Isac, Chandrani; Maroof, Samira

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate a self-administered risk-assessment scoring system for identifying Omani adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: An exploratory cross-sectional design was used. Simple random sampling was used to select 93 adults in Muscat. Ethical approval was obtained from the College of Nursing Research and Ethics Committee. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) was used to collect the data in 2009. Informed consent was obtained from the participants. Data were analysed with the Pearson chi-square test. Results: A total of 9.7% of the adults had very high FINDRISC and 17.2% had slightly elevated risk of developing T2DM within 10 years. The risk assessment (family history, waist circumference, body mass index, physical activity, dietary intake, hypertension and high blood glucose) of T2DM was significant and positively related to the prediction of T2DM among Omani adults. PMID:26770689

  13. Dietary patterns: biomarkers and chronic disease risk.

    PubMed

    Kant, Ashima K

    2010-04-01

    With increasing appreciation of the complexity of diets consumed by free-living individuals, there is interest in the assessment of the overall diet or dietary patterns in which multiple related dietary characteristics are considered as a single exposure. The 2 most frequently used methods to derive dietary patterns use (i) scores or indexes based on prevailing hypotheses about the role of dietary factors in disease prevention; and (ii) factors and clusters from exploration of available dietary data. A third method, a hybrid of the hypothesis-driven and data-driven methods, attempts to predict food combinations related to nutrients or biomarkers with hypothesized associations with particular health outcomes. Dietary patterns derived from the first 2 approaches have been examined in relation to nutritional and disease biomarkers and various health outcomes, and generally show the desirable dietary pattern to be consistent with prevalent beliefs about what constitutes a healthful diet. Results from observational studies suggest that the healthful dietary patterns were associated with significant but modest risk reduction (15%-30%) for all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease. Findings for various cancers have been inconsistent. The available randomized controlled intervention trials with a long-term follow-up to examine dietary patterns in relation to health outcome have generally produced null findings. Novel findings with the potential to change existing beliefs about diet and health relationships are yet to emerge from the dietary patterns research. The field requires innovation in methods to derive dietary patterns, validation of prevalent methods, and assessment of the effect of dietary measurement error on dietary patterns.

  14. Heart disease and rheumatoid arthritis: understanding the risks.

    PubMed

    Gabriel, S E

    2010-01-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk of mortality compared with the general population. Evidence suggests that this increased mortality can largely be attributed to increased cardiovascular death. In a retrospective study of an inception cohort of RA patients in Rochester, MN, the contribution of traditional and RA-specific risk factors was investigated to this increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Several traditional cardiovascular risk factors were found to behave differently in RA patients. In addition, their associations with cardiovascular disease are weaker in RA patients as increased inflammation associated with RA also appears to contribute substantially to the increased cardiovascular mortality. Furthermore, the impact of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and biologicals on cardiovascular disease in RA patients is unclear. Cardiovascular risk scores for the general population may underestimate the risk for RA patients. Together with other studies that have demonstrated similar associations between RA and cardiovascular mortality, these data suggest that optimal control of cardiovascular risk factors is important, but not sufficient in RA patients. RA-specific cardiovascular risk prediction tools are needed, as well as clinical trials to assess the impact of therapies and tight control of inflammation in RA patients on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality.

  15. Worldwide risks of animal diseases: introduction.

    PubMed

    Pearson, J E

    2006-01-01

    Animal diseases impact food supplies, trade and commerce, and human health and well-being in every part of the world. Outbreaks draw the attention of those in agriculture, regulatory agencies, and government, as well as the general public. This was demonstrated by the 2000-2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks that occurred in Europe, South America, Asia and Africa and by the recent increased occurrence of emerging diseases transmitted from animals to humans. Examples of these emerging zoonotic diseases are highly pathogenic avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalopathy, West Nile virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome. There is also the risk of well-known and preventable zoonotic diseases, such as rabies, brucellosis, leishmaniasis, and echinococcosis/hydatidosis, in certain countries; these diseases have a high morbidity with the potential for a very high mortality. Animal agriculturalists should have a global disease awareness of disease risks and develop plans of action to deal with them; in order to better respond to these diseases, they should develop the skills and competencies in politics, media interactions, and community engagement. This issue of Veterinaria Italiana presents information on the risk of animal diseases; their impact on animals and humans at the international, national, industry, and societal levels; and the responses to them. In addition, specific information is provided on national and international disease monitoring, surveillance and reporting, the risk of spread of disease by bioterrorism and on import risk analysis.

  16. Validation of patient determined disease steps (PDDS) scale scores in persons with multiple sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The Patient Determined Disease Steps (PDDS) is a promising patient-reported outcome (PRO) of disability in multiple sclerosis (MS). To date, there is limited evidence regarding the validity of PDDS scores, despite its sound conceptual development and broad inclusion in MS research. This study examined the validity of the PDDS based on (1) the association with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores and (2) the pattern of associations between PDDS and EDSS scores with Functional System (FS) scores as well as ambulatory and other outcomes. Methods 96 persons with MS provided demographic/clinical information, completed the PDDS and other PROs including the Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale-12 (MSWS-12), and underwent a neurological examination for generating FS and EDSS scores. Participants completed assessments of cognition, ambulation including the 6-minute walk (6 MW), and wore an accelerometer during waking hours over seven days. Results There was a strong correlation between EDSS and PDDS scores (ρ = .783). PDDS and EDSS scores were strongly correlated with Pyramidal (ρ = .578 &ρ = .647, respectively) and Cerebellar (ρ = .501 &ρ = .528, respectively) FS scores as well as 6 MW distance (ρ = .704 &ρ = .805, respectively), MSWS-12 scores (ρ = .801 &ρ = .729, respectively), and accelerometer steps/day (ρ = -.740 &ρ = -.717, respectively). Conclusion This study provides novel evidence supporting the PDDS as valid PRO of disability in MS. PMID:23617555

  17. Job level risk assessment using task level strain index scores: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Drinkaus, Phillip; Bloswick, Donald S; Sesek, Richard; Mann, Clay; Bernard, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores 2 methods of modifying the Strain Index (SI) to assess the ergonomic risk of multi-task jobs. Twenty-eight automotive jobs (15 cases and 13 controls) were studied. The first method is based on the maximum task SI score, and the second method is modeled on the NIOSH Composite Lifting Index (CLI) algorithm, named cumulative assessment of risk to the distal upper extremity (CARD). Significant odds ratios of 11 (CI 1.7-69) and 24 (CI 2.4-240) were obtained using the modified maximum task and CARD, respectively. This indicates that modification of the SI may be useful in determining the risk of distal upper extremity injury associated with a multi-task job.

  18. The Disease Activity Score (DAS) and the Disease Activity Score using 28 joint counts (DAS28) in the management of rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    van Riel, Piet L C M; Renskers, Lisanne

    2016-01-01

    In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), disease activity cannot be measured in all individual patients according to a single variable. The Disease Activity Score (DAS) and the DAS28 have been developed to measure disease activity in RA both in daily clinical practice as well as in clinical trials on a group as well as individual level. The DAS/DAS28 is a continuous measure of RA disease activity that combines information from swollen joints, tender joints, acute phase response and general health. The DAS-based EULAR response criteria were primarily developed to be used in clinical trials. The EULAR response criteria classify individual patients as non-, moderate, or good responders, dependent on the magnitude of change and level of disease activity reached. In addition, already in the early nineties, cut points were developed to categorise patients in remission. The DAS28 is incorporated in several electronic patient records and web-based systems for monitoring purposes in daily clinical practice. In addition to this, it is being used in combination with patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) to facilitate self-monitoring.

  19. Impact of malnutrition on pediatric risk of mortality score and outcome in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Nangalu, Romi; Pooni, Puneet Aulakh; Bhargav, Siddharth; Bains, Harmesh Singh

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study was done to determine the effect of malnutrition on mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) and on the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) scoring. Subjects and Methods: This was a prospective study done over 1 year. There were total 400 patients (1 month 14 years), who were divided into cases with weight for age <3rd centile and controls with ≥3rd centile of WHO charts. Cases were subdivided into mild/moderate (61–80% of expected weight for age) and severe malnutrition (<60%). Results: Out of total, 38.5% patients were underweight, and malnutrition was more in infancy, 61/104, i.e. 58.5% (P - 0.003). There was no significant difference in vitals at admission. Cases needed prolonged mechanical ventilation (P - 0.0063) and hospital stay (P - 0.0332) compared to controls. Mean and median PRISM scores were comparable in both the groups, but mortality was significantly higher in severely malnourished (P value 0.027). Conclusion: Severe malnutrition is independently associated with higher mortality even with similar PRISM score. There is need to give an additional score to children with weight for age <60% of expected. PMID:27555691

  20. Polygenic risk of Parkinson disease is correlated with disease age at onset

    PubMed Central

    Escott‐Price, Valentina; Nalls, Mike A.; Morris, Huw R.; Lubbe, Steven; Brice, Alexis; Gasser, Thomas; Heutink, Peter; Wood, Nicholas W.; Hardy, John; Singleton, Andrew B.

    2015-01-01

    Objective We have investigated the polygenic architecture of Parkinson disease (PD) and have also explored the potential relationship between an individual's polygenic risk score and their disease age at onset. Methods This study used genotypic data from 4,294 cases and 10,340 controls obtained from the meta‐analysis of PD genome‐wide association studies. Polygenic score analysis was performed as previously described by the International Schizophrenia Consortium, testing whether the polygenic score alleles identified in 1 association study were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls of 3 independent studies. Linear regression was used to investigate the relationship between an individual's polygenic score for PD risk alleles and disease age at onset. Results Our polygenic score analysis has identified significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in the cases of each of 3 independent PD genome‐wide association cohorts (minimum p = 3.76 × 10−6). Further analysis identified compelling evidence that the average polygenic score in patients with an early disease age at onset was significantly higher than in those with a late age at onset (p = 0.00014). Interpretation This provides strong support for a large polygenic contribution to the overall heritable risk of PD and also suggests that early onset forms of the illness are not exclusively caused by highly penetrant Mendelian mutations, but can also be contributed to by an accumulation of common polygenic alleles with relatively low effect sizes. Ann Neurol 2015;77:582–591 PMID:25773351

  1. Comparison of the Male Osteoporosis Risk Estimation Score (MORES) With FRAX in Identifying Men at Risk for Osteoporosis

    PubMed Central

    Cass, Alvah R.; Shepherd, Angela J.; Asirot, Rechelle; Mahajan, Manju; Nizami, Maimoona

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE We wanted to compare the male osteoporosis risk estimation score (MORES) with the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in screening men for osteoporosis. METHODS This study reports analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), a nationally representative sample of the US population, comparing the operating characteristics of FRAX and MORES to identify men at risk for osteoporosis using a subset of 1,498 men, aged 50 years and older, with a valid dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan. DXA-derived bone mineral density using a T score of −2.5 or lower at either the femoral neck or total hip defined the diagnosis of osteoporosis. Outcomes included the operating characteristics, area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve, and agreement of the FRAX and MORES. RESULTS Sixty-seven (4.5%) of the 1,498 men had osteoporosis of the hip. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) for the MORES were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.87–0.99), 0.61 (95% CI, 0.58–0.63), and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84–0.91), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC for the FRAX were 0.39 (95% CI, 0.27–0.51), 0.89 (95% CI, 0.88–0.91), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75–0.84) respectively. Agreement was poor. CONCLUSIONS Compared with the MORES, the FRAX underperformed as a screening strategy for osteoporosis using the threshold score suggested by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). An integrated approach that uses the MORES to determine which men should have a DXA scan and the FRAX to guide treatment decisions, based on the risk of a future fracture, identified 82% of men who were candidates for treatments based on National Osteoporosis Foundation guidelines. PMID:27401426

  2. US Commercial Air Tour Crashes, 2000–2011: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and FIA Score Validation

    PubMed Central

    Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Beaty, Leland P.; Baker, Susan P.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction This study provides new public health data concerning the US commercial air tour industry. Risk factors for fatality in air tour crashes were analyzed to determine the value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes. Methods Using the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and National Transportation Safety Board data, the incidence of commercial air tour crashes from 2000 through 2010 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes occurring from 2000 through 2011 were analyzed using regression methods. The FIA score, Li and Baker’s fatality risk index, was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The industry-wide commercial air tour crash rate was 2.7 per 100,000 flight hours. The incidence rates of Part 91 and 135 commercial air tour crashes were 3.4 and 2.3 per 100,000 flight hours, respectively (relative risk [RR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.1, P=0.015). Of the 152 air tour crashes that occurred from 2000 through 2011, 30 (20%) involved at least one fatality and, on average, 3.5 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with three major risk factors: fire (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.1, 95% CI 1.5–16.7, P=0.008), instrument meteorological conditions (AOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.1–26.4, P=0.038), and off-airport location (AOR 7.2, 95% CI 1.6–33.2, P=0.011). The area under the FIA Score’s ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.88). Discussion Commercial air tour crash rates were high relative to similar commercial aviation operations. Disparities between Part 91 and 135 air tour crash rates reflect regulatory disparities that require FAA action. The FIA Score appeared to be a valid measurement of fatal risk in air tour crashes. The FIA should prioritize interventions that address the three major risk factors identified by this study. PMID:23631935

  3. Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women

    PubMed Central

    Steffen, Annika; Sørensen, Thorkild I A.; Knüppel, Sven; Travier, Noemie; Sánchez, María-José; Huerta, José María; Quirós, J. Ramón; Ardanaz, Eva; Dorronsoro, Miren; Teucher, Birgit; Li, Kuanrong; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; van der A, Daphne; Mattiello, Amalia; Palli, Domenico; Tumino, Rosario; Krogh, Vittorio; Vineis, Paolo; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Orfanos, Philippos; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Hedblad, Bo; Wallström, Peter; Overvad, Kim; Halkjær, Jytte; Tjønneland, Anne; Fagherazzi, Guy; Dartois, Laureen; Crowe, Francesca; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Middleton, Lefkos; May, Anne M.; Peeters, Petra H. M.; Boeing, Heiner

    2013-01-01

    Background Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. Methods We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). Results Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63–0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI  = 0.56–0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. Conclusion The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score. PMID:23874419

  4. [Risk assessment of periodontal disease in Hungary].

    PubMed

    Hermann, Péter; Borbély, Judit; Gera, István; Fejérdy, Pál; Soós, Borbála; Madléna, Melinda

    2011-06-01

    In this study, risk determinants were assessed for periodontal disease in the oral health survey of a representative Hungarian adult population sample. 4153 individuals participated in the study after formal consent. Participants were questionned on level of education, dental office attendance, smoking habits, oral hygiene habits and general health conditions. Quality of fixed partial dentures (FPD) were evaluated. Periodontal health status was assessed with the CPI method according to WHO criteria. When the prevalence of CPI scores was assessed by educational level, significant differences were found between groups. With increasing levels of education, a significantly higher percentage of subjects visited the dental office regularly. Higher prevalence of CPI 0 was found among those with higher level of education but there was also high prevalence of CPI 2, representing bad oral hygiene in the highly educated group. Findings of our study showed high percentage (66%) of the population attending the dental office only in case of emergency. The investigation revealed destructive effect of unsatisfactory construction of FPD on the periodontium. Healthy periodontium (CPI 0) was found among 16% of those wearing no FPD and 9% among FPD-wearers. The prevalence of deep periodontal pockets (CPI 4) was 1,6 times higher among smokers as non-smokers. Oral health statistics play an important role in planning for improvement of dental health care. Hungary needs effective prevention programs and emphasize on regular dental office attendance of individuals to improve the nation's oral health status.

  5. Validation of the BARD scoring system in Polish patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Abtract Background Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) includes a wide spectrum of liver diseases, ranging from pure steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and eventually to liver cirrhosis with its complications. Identifying advanced fibrosis in patients is crucial to evaluating prognosis and possible therapeutic intervention. A novel, simple, and highly accurate scoring system called BARD, which identifies patients with NAFLD and without significant fibrosis, has been recently introduced and validated in North America..The aim of this study is to validate the BARD scoring system in a Polish cohort with NAFLD. Methods A group of 104 Caucasians with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included in this study. Fibrosis in liver biopsies was evaluated according to the Histological Scoring System for Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease. The BARD scoring system was assessed according to Harrison et al.: BMI ≥ 28 = 1 point, AST/ALT ratio (AAR) ≥ 0.8 = 2 points, type 2 diabetes mellitus = 1point. Results Age over 50 and AAR over 0.8 showed, respectively, a moderate and strong association with advanced fibrosis. A BARD score of 2-4 points was associated with F3 or F4 stages of fibrosis with an odds ratio of 17.333 (95% Cl; 3,639 - 82.558) and negative predictive value of 97%. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that the BARD scoring system has value in the non-invasive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD patients. The vast majority of patients with NAFLD would avoid liver biopsy if BARD was broadly introduced into the clinic. PMID:20584330

  6. A scoring system for risk assessment of the introduction and spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in dairy herds in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Luzzago, Camilla; Frigerio, Michela; Piccinini, Renata; Daprà, Valentina; Zecconi, Alfonso

    2008-08-01

    To support a voluntary disease control program, this study aimed to develop an integrated scoring system for the risk assessment of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection in dairy herds in Northern Italy. Sixty-two dairy herds were classified according to their BVDV serological status. Farmers were interviewed using a questionnaire on potential BVDV risk factors. Scores were used to define risk levels for factors related to (1) BVDV introduction (through livestock trade, attendance of animals at shows/exhibitions and grazing common pasture), (2) within-herd spread of BVDV and (3) the results of initial serological testing. The calculated odds ratios were significant for all categories, except for livestock trade. The application of the screening test, the questionnaire and the related risk assessment showed this to be a practical approach to predicting BVDV herd status.

  7. Prevalence and predictors of coronary artery disease in patients with a calcium score of zero.

    PubMed

    de Carvalho, Maria Salomé Leal; de Araújo Gonçalves, Pedro; Garcia-Garcia, Hector M; de Sousa, Pedro Jerónimo; Dores, Helder; Ferreira, António; Cardim, Nuno; Carmo, Miguel Mota; Aleixo, Ana; Mendes, Miguel; Machado, Francisco Pereira; Roquette, José; Marques, Hugo

    2013-12-01

    The absence of coronary calcification is associated with an excellent prognosis. However, a calcium score of zero does not exclude the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) or the possibility of future cardiovascular events. Our aim was to study the prevalence and predictors of coronary artery disease in patients with a calcium score of zero. Prospective registry consisted of 3,012 consecutive patients that underwent cardiac CT (dual source CT). Stable patients referred for evaluation of possible CAD that had a calcium score of zero (n = 864) were selected for this analysis. The variables that were statistically significant were included in a multivariable logistic regression model. From 864 patients with a calcium score of zero, 107 (12.4%) had coronary plaques on the contrast CT (10.8%, n = 93 with nonobstructive CAD and 1.6%, n = 14 with obstructive CAD). By logistic regression analysis, the independent predictors of CAD in this population were age >55 years [odds ratio (OR) 1.63 (1.05-2.52)], hypertension [OR 1.64 (1.05-2.56)] and dyslipidemia [OR 1.54 (1.00-2.36)]. In the presence of these 3 variables, the probability of having coronary plaques was 21%. The absence of coronary artery calcification does not exclude the presence of coronary artery disease, but the prevalence of obstructive disease is very low. In this population, the independent predictors of CAD in the setting of a calcium score of zero were hypertension, dyslipidemia, and age above 55 years. In the presence of these 3 predictors, the probability of having CAD was almost 2 times higher than in the general population.

  8. Scoring multiple features to predict drug disease associations using information fusion and aggregation.

    PubMed

    Moghadam, H; Rahgozar, M; Gharaghani, S

    2016-08-01

    Prediction of drug-disease associations is one of the current fields in drug repositioning that has turned into a challenging topic in pharmaceutical science. Several available computational methods use network-based and machine learning approaches to reposition old drugs for new indications. However, they often ignore features of drugs and diseases as well as the priority and importance of each feature, relation, or interactions between features and the degree of uncertainty. When predicting unknown drug-disease interactions there are diverse data sources and multiple features available that can provide more accurate and reliable results. This information can be collectively mined using data fusion methods and aggregation operators. Therefore, we can use the feature fusion method to make high-level features. We have proposed a computational method named scored mean kernel fusion (SMKF), which uses a new method to score the average aggregation operator called scored mean. To predict novel drug indications, this method systematically combines multiple features related to drugs or diseases at two levels: the drug-drug level and the drug-disease level. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of drug and disease features as well as data fusion to predict drug-disease interactions. The method was validated against a well-established drug-disease gold-standard dataset. When compared with the available methods, our proposed method outperformed them and competed well in performance with area under cover (AUC) of 0.91, F-measure of 84.9% and Matthews correlation coefficient of 70.31%.

  9. Which patient and treatment factors are related to successful cardiovascular risk score reduction in general practice? Results from a randomized controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death. It is important to identify patient and treatment factors that are related to successful cardiovascular risk reduction in general practice. This study investigates which patient and treatment factors are related to changes in cardiovascular risk estimation, expressed as the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) 10 year risk of cardiovascular mortality. Methods 179 general practice patients with mild-moderately elevated cardiovascular risk followed a one-year programme which included structured lifestyle and medication treatment by practice nurses, with or without additional self-monitoring. From the patient and treatment data collected as part of the “Self-monitoring and Prevention of RIsk factors by Nurse practitioners in the region of Groningen” randomized controlled trial (SPRING-RCT), the contribution of patient and treatment factors to the change in SCORE was analysed with univariate and multivariate analyses. Results In multivariate analyses with multiple patient and treatment factors, only SCORE at baseline, and addition of or dose change in lipid lowering or antihypertensive medications over the course of the study were significantly related to change in SCORE. Conclusions Our analyses support the targeting of treatment at individuals with a high SCORE at presentation. Lipid lowering medication was added or changed in only 12% of participants, but nevertheless was significantly related to ΔSCORE in this study population. Due to the effect of medication in this practice-based project, the possible additional effect of the home monitoring devices, especially for individuals with no indication for medication, may have been overshadowed. Trial registration trialregister.nl NTR2188 PMID:23968366

  10. The performance of different propensity-score methods for estimating differences in proportions (risk differences or absolute risk reductions) in observational studies.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2010-09-10

    Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate the effects of treatments on health outcomes using observational data. There are four methods for using the propensity score to estimate treatment effects: covariate adjustment using the propensity score, stratification on the propensity score, propensity-score matching, and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score. When outcomes are binary, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be described using odds ratios, relative risks, risk differences, or the number needed to treat. Several clinical commentators suggested that risk differences and numbers needed to treat are more meaningful for clinical decision making than are odds ratios or relative risks. However, there is a paucity of information about the relative performance of the different propensity-score methods for estimating risk differences. We conducted a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine this issue. We examined bias, variance estimation, coverage of confidence intervals, mean-squared error (MSE), and type I error rates. A doubly robust version of IPTW had superior performance compared with the other propensity-score methods. It resulted in unbiased estimation of risk differences, treatment effects with the lowest standard errors, confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates, and correct type I error rates. Stratification, matching on the propensity score, and covariate adjustment using the propensity score resulted in minor to modest bias in estimating risk differences. Estimators based on IPTW had lower MSE compared with other propensity-score methods. Differences between IPTW and propensity-score matching may reflect that these two methods estimate the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect for the treated, respectively.

  11. Necrotizing soft-tissue infection: laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing soft tissue infections score.

    PubMed

    Kulkarni, Madhuri; Vijay Kumar, Gs; Sowmya, Gs; Madhu, Cp; Ramya, Sr

    2014-01-01

    Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTI) can be rapidly progressive and polymicrobial in etiology. Establishing the element of necrotizing infection poses a clinical challenge. A 64-year-old diabetic patient presented to our hospital with a gangrenous patch on anterior abdominal wall, which progressed to an extensive necrotizing lesion within 1 week. Successive laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing softtissue infections (LRINEC) scores confirmed the necrotizing element. Cultures yielded Enterococci, Acinetobacter species and Apophysomyces elegans and the latter being considered as an emerging agent of Zygomycosis in immunocompromised hosts. Patient was managed with antibiotics, antifungal treatment and surgical debridement despite which he succumbed to the infection. NSTI's require an early and aggressive management and LRINEC score can be applied to establish the element of necrotizing pathology. Isolation of multiple organisms becomes confusing to establish the etiological role. Apophysomyces elegans, which was isolated in our patient is being increasingly reported in cases of necrotizing infections and may be responsible for high morbidity and mortality. This scoring has been proposed as an adjunct tool to Microbiological diagnosis when NSTI's need to be diagnosed early and managed promptly to decrease mortality and morbidity, which however may not come in handy in an immunocompromised host with polymicrobial aggressive infection.

  12. Subtle renal dysfunction and bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation: symmetric dimethylarginine predicts HAS-BLED score

    PubMed Central

    Procter, Nathan EK; Ball, Jocasta; Heresztyn, Tamila; Nooney, Vivek B; Liu, Saifei; Chong, Cher-Rin; Ngo, Doan TM; Isenberg, Jeffrey S; Chirkov, Yuliy Y; Stewart, Simon; Horowitz, John D

    2015-01-01

    Background: Risk of substantial haemorrhage represents a critically important limitation to effective anti-thrombotic treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). While it is known that this risk is increased in anticoagulated patients either in the presence of anti-aggregatory drugs or concomitant renal insufficiency, there are currently few data on the potential interactions between endogenous platelet aggregability and bleeding risk. Objective: We therefore evaluated in a cohort of AF patients: (1), the putative relationship between platelet aggregability and HAS-BLED score; (2), the potential biochemical bases for such a relationship. Methods: Patients were included as part of SAFETY, a randomised controlled trial evaluating outpatient management of AF patients. Platelet response to ADP was evaluated via whole blood impedance aggregometry; clinical and biochemical correlates of platelet aggregation were sought via univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: Platelet aggregation correlated inversely (r=-0.220, p<0.05) with HAS-BLED score. Univariate biochemical correlates of decreased platelet aggregation were plasma concentrations of symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) and asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA). On multivariate analyses, plasma SDMA concentration (β=-0.318, p<0.01), platelet content of thioredoxin-interacting protein (Txnip, β=0.261, p<0.05) and plasma thrombospondin-1 (TSP-1, β=0.249, p<0.05) concentration were predictive of platelet ADP response. Consistent with previous reports, plasma SDMA concentrations were strongly and inversely correlated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, r=-0.780, p<0.001). Conclusions: These data therefore suggest that (1), physiologically impaired, like pharmacologically impaired, platelet aggregability may increase bleeding risk in anticoagulated AF patients; (2), the biochemical basis for this may include impaired effects of nitric oxide (via Txnip, TSP-1) but also concomitant renal

  13. A Computational Neurodegenerative Disease Progression Score: Method and Results with the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Jedynak, Bruno M.; Lang, Andrew; Liu, Bo; Katz, Elyse; Zhang, Yanwei; Wyman, Bradley T.; Raunig, David; Jedynak, C. Pierre; Caffo, Brian; Prince, Jerry L.

    2012-01-01

    While neurodegenerative diseases are characterized by steady degeneration over relatively long timelines, it is widely believed that the early stages are the most promising for therapeutic intervention, before irreversible neuronal loss occurs. Developing a therapeutic response requires a precise measure of disease progression. However, since the early stages are for the most part asymptomatic, obtaining accurate measures of disease progression is difficult. Longitudinal databases of hundreds of subjects observed during several years with tens of validated biomarkers are becoming available, allowing the use of computational methods. We propose a widely applicable statistical methodology for creating a disease progression score (DPS), using multiple biomarkers, for subjects with a neurodegenerative disease. The proposed methodology was evaluated for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using the publicly available AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database, yielding an Alzheimer’s DPS or ADPS score for each subject and each time-point in the database. In addition, a common description of biomarker changes was produced allowing for an ordering of the biomarkers. The Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test delayed recall was found to be the earliest biomarker to become abnormal. The group of biomarkers comprising the volume of the hippocampus and the protein concentration amyloid beta and Tau were next in the timeline, and these were followed by three cognitive biomarkers. The proposed methodology thus has potential to stage individuals according to their state of disease progression relative to a population and to deduce common behaviors of biomarkers in the disease itself. PMID:22885136

  14. Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test scores can be predicted from whole brain MRI in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Moradi, Elaheh; Hallikainen, Ilona; Hänninen, Tuomo; Tohka, Jussi

    2017-01-01

    Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT) is a powerful neuropsychological tool for testing episodic memory, which is widely used for the cognitive assessment in dementia and pre-dementia conditions. Several studies have shown that an impairment in RAVLT scores reflect well the underlying pathology caused by Alzheimer's disease (AD), thus making RAVLT an effective early marker to detect AD in persons with memory complaints. We investigated the association between RAVLT scores (RAVLT Immediate and RAVLT Percent Forgetting) and the structural brain atrophy caused by AD. The aim was to comprehensively study to what extent the RAVLT scores are predictable based on structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data using machine learning approaches as well as to find the most important brain regions for the estimation of RAVLT scores. For this, we built a predictive model to estimate RAVLT scores from gray matter density via elastic net penalized linear regression model. The proposed approach provided highly significant cross-validated correlation between the estimated and observed RAVLT Immediate (R = 0.50) and RAVLT Percent Forgetting (R = 0.43) in a dataset consisting of 806 AD, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or healthy subjects. In addition, the selected machine learning method provided more accurate estimates of RAVLT scores than the relevance vector regression used earlier for the estimation of RAVLT based on MRI data. The top predictors were medial temporal lobe structures and amygdala for the estimation of RAVLT Immediate and angular gyrus, hippocampus and amygdala for the estimation of RAVLT Percent Forgetting. Further, the conversion of MCI subjects to AD in 3-years could be predicted based on either observed or estimated RAVLT scores with an accuracy comparable to MRI-based biomarkers.

  15. Development and assessment of a composite score for memory in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI).

    PubMed

    Crane, Paul K; Carle, Adam; Gibbons, Laura E; Insel, Philip; Mackin, R Scott; Gross, Alden; Jones, Richard N; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Curtis, S McKay; Harvey, Danielle; Weiner, Michael; Mungas, Dan

    2012-12-01

    We sought to develop and evaluate a composite memory score from the neuropsychological battery used in the Alzheimer's Disease (AD) Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We used modern psychometric approaches to analyze longitudinal Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT, 2 versions), AD Assessment Schedule - Cognition (ADAS-Cog, 3 versions), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and Logical Memory data to develop ADNI-Mem, a composite memory score. We compared RAVLT and ADAS-Cog versions, and compared ADNI-Mem to RAVLT recall sum scores, four ADAS-Cog-derived scores, the MMSE, and the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes. We evaluated rates of decline in normal cognition, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD, ability to predict conversion from MCI to AD, strength of association with selected imaging parameters, and ability to differentiate rates of decline between participants with and without AD cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) signatures. The second version of the RAVLT was harder than the first. The ADAS-Cog versions were of similar difficulty. ADNI-Mem was slightly better at detecting change than total RAVLT recall scores. It was as good as or better than all of the other scores at predicting conversion from MCI to AD. It was associated with all our selected imaging parameters for people with MCI and AD. Participants with MCI with an AD CSF signature had somewhat more rapid decline than did those without. This paper illustrates appropriate methods for addressing the different versions of word lists, and demonstrates the additional power to be gleaned with a psychometrically sound composite memory score.

  16. Reliability of the CMT neuropathy score (second version) in Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Sinéad M; Herrmann, David N; McDermott, Michael P; Scherer, Steven S; Shy, Michael E; Reilly, Mary M; Pareyson, Davide

    2011-09-01

    The Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy score (CMTNS) is a reliable and valid composite score comprising symptoms, signs, and neurophysiological tests, which has been used in natural history studies of CMT1A and CMT1X and as an outcome measure in treatment trials of CMT1A. Following an international workshop on outcome measures in Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMT), the CMTNS was modified to attempt to reduce floor and ceiling effects and to standardize patient assessment, aiming to improve its sensitivity for detecting change over time and the effect of an intervention. After agreeing on the modifications made to the CMTNS (CMTNS2), three examiners evaluated 16 patients to determine inter-rater reliability; one examiner evaluated 18 patients twice within 8 weeks to determine intra-rater reliability. Three examiners evaluated 63 patients using the CMTNS and the CMTNS2 to determine how the modifications altered scoring. For inter- and intra-rater reliability, intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) were ≥0.96 for the CMT symptom score and the CMT examination score. There were small but significant differences in some of the individual components of the CMTNS compared with the CMTNS2, mainly in the components that had been modified the most. A longitudinal study is in progress to determine whether the CMTNS2 is more sensitive than the CMTNS for detecting change over time.

  17. Aristotle score predicts outcome in patients requiring extracorporeal circulatory support following repair of congenital heart disease.

    PubMed

    Derby, Christopher D; Kolcz, Jacek; Kerins, Paul J; Duncan, Daniel R; Quezada, Emilio; Pizarro, Christian

    2007-01-01

    Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has become the standard technique of mechanical support for the failing circulation following repair of congenital heart lesions. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of survival in patients requiring postcardiotomy ECMO. The Aristotle score, a method developed to evaluate quality of care based on complexity, was investigated as a potential predictor of outcome. Between 2003 and 2005, 37 patients required ECMO following corrective surgery for congenital heart disease. Records were reviewed retrospectively with emphasis on factors affecting survival to discharge. The comprehensive Aristotle complexity score was calculated for each patient. Overall, 28 patients (76%) survived to decannulation and 17 patients (46%) survived to discharge. There were 24 (65%) neonates and 10 patients (27%) with single ventricle physiology, with a hospital survival of 42% (10 of 24) and 50% (5 of 10), respectively. Univariate factors associated with survival included Aristotle score, duration of support, reexploration, multiple organ failure, and number of complications. Age, weight, and single-ventricle physiology were not significant. In a logistic regression model, an Aristotle score < 14 was identified as a predictor of survival (OR 0.12, CI 0.02-0.87). The Aristotle score is predictive of outcome in patients requiring postcardiotomy ECMO and may serve as a uniform criterion when comparing and evaluating quality of care and performance in this complex patient population.

  18. Mortality risk score prediction in an elderly population using machine learning.

    PubMed

    Rose, Sherri

    2013-03-01

    Standard practice for prediction often relies on parametric regression methods. Interesting new methods from the machine learning literature have been introduced in epidemiologic studies, such as random forest and neural networks. However, a priori, an investigator will not know which algorithm to select and may wish to try several. Here I apply the super learner, an ensembling machine learning approach that combines multiple algorithms into a single algorithm and returns a prediction function with the best cross-validated mean squared error. Super learning is a generalization of stacking methods. I used super learning in the Study of Physical Performance and Age-Related Changes in Sonomans (SPPARCS) to predict death among 2,066 residents of Sonoma, California, aged 54 years or more during the period 1993-1999. The super learner for predicting death (risk score) improved upon all single algorithms in the collection of algorithms, although its performance was similar to that of several algorithms. Super learner outperformed the worst algorithm (neural networks) by 44% with respect to estimated cross-validated mean squared error and had an R2 value of 0.201. The improvement of super learner over random forest with respect to R2 was approximately 2-fold. Alternatives for risk score prediction include the super learner, which can provide improved performance.

  19. Genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure increases risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xiangfeng; Huang, Jianfeng; Wang, Laiyuan; Chen, Shufeng; Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Cao, Jie; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Zhao, Liancheng; Li, Hongfan; Liu, Fangcao; Huang, Chen; Shen, Chong; Shen, Jinjin; Yu, Ling; Xu, Lihua; Mu, Jianjun; Wu, Xianping; Ji, Xu; Guo, Dongshuang; Zhou, Zhengyuan; Yang, Zili; Wang, Renping; Yang, Jun; Yan, Weili; Gu, Dongfeng

    2015-10-01

    Although multiple genetic markers associated with blood pressure have been identified by genome-wide association studies, their aggregate effect on risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease is uncertain, particularly among East Asian who may have different genetic and environmental exposures from Europeans. We aimed to examine the association between genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure and risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease in 26 262 individuals in 2 Chinese population-based prospective cohorts. A genetic risk score was calculated based on 22 established variants for blood pressure in East Asian. We found the genetic risk score was significantly and independently associated with linear increases in blood pressure and risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease (P range from 4.57×10(-3) to 3.10×10(-6)). In analyses adjusted for traditional risk factors including blood pressure, individuals carrying most blood pressure-related risk alleles (top quintile of genetic score distribution) had 40% (95% confidence interval, 18-66) and 26% (6-45) increased risk for incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease, respectively, when compared with individuals in the bottom quintile. The genetic risk score also significantly improved discrimination for incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease and led to modest improvements in risk reclassification for cardiovascular disease (all the P<0.05). Our data indicate that genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure is an independent risk factor for blood pressure increase and incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease and provides modest incremental information to cardiovascular disease risk prediction. The potential clinical use of this panel of blood pressure-associated polymorphisms remains to be determined.

  20. WBSMDA: Within and Between Score for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xing; Yan, Chenggang Clarence; Zhang, Xu; You, Zhu-Hong; Deng, Lixi; Liu, Ying; Zhang, Yongdong; Dai, Qionghai

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidences have indicated that microRNAs (miRNAs) are functionally associated with the development and progression of various complex human diseases. However, the roles of miRNAs in multiple biological processes or various diseases and their underlying molecular mechanisms still have not been fully understood yet. Predicting potential miRNA-disease associations by integrating various heterogeneous biological datasets is of great significance to the biomedical research. Computational methods could obtain potential miRNA-disease associations in a short time, which significantly reduce the experimental time and cost. Considering the limitations in previous computational methods, we developed the model of Within and Between Score for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction (WBSMDA) to predict potential miRNAs associated with various complex diseases. WBSMDA could be applied to the diseases without any known related miRNAs. The AUC of 0.8031 based on Leave-one-out cross validation has demonstrated its reliable performance. WBSMDA was further applied to Colon Neoplasms, Prostate Neoplasms, and Lymphoma for the identification of their potential related miRNAs. As a result, 90%, 84%, and 80% of predicted miRNA-disease pairs in the top 50 prediction list for these three diseases have been confirmed by recent experimental literatures, respectively. It is anticipated that WBSMDA would be a useful resource for potential miRNA-disease association identification. PMID:26880032

  1. Predictive and Incremental Validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide Scores with Male and Female Jail Inmates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hastings, Mark E.; Krishnan, Shilpa; Tangney, June P.; Stuewig, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    The present study examines the predictive and incremental validity of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores in a sample of 328 male and 145 female jail inmates held on felony charges. Significant gender differences were observed in VRAG item and total score means, as well as in correlations between the VRAG and concurrent measures of aggression.…

  2. Risk scores for predicting incidence of type 2 diabetes in the Chinese population: the Kailuan prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Anxin; Chen, Guojuan; Su, Zhaoping; Liu, Xiaoxue; Liu, Xiangtong; Li, Haibin; Luo, Yanxia; Tao, Lixin; Guo, Jin; Liu, Long; Chen, Shuohua; Wu, Shouling; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Few risk scores have been specifically developed to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes in China. In the present study, we aimed to develop such risk scores, based on simple clinical variables. We studied a population-based cohort of 73,987 adults, aged 18 years and over. After 5.35 ± 1.59 years of follow-up, 4,726 participants (9.58%) in the exploration cohort developed type 2 diabetes and 2,327 participants (9.44%) in the validation cohort developed type 2 diabetes. Age, gender, body mass index, family history of diabetes, education, blood pressure, and resting heart rate were selected to form the concise score with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.67. The variables in the concise score combined with fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and triglyceride (TG) or use of lipid-lowering drugs constituted the accurate score with an AUC value of 0.77. The utility of the two scores was confirmed in the validation cohort with AUCs of 0.66 and 0.77, respectively. In summary, the concise score, based on non-laboratory variables, could be used to identify individuals at high risk of developing diabetes within Chinese population; the accurate score, which also uses FPG and TG data, is better at identifying such individuals. PMID:27221651

  3. Critical Overview of the Risk Scoring Systems to Predict Non-Responsiveness to Intravenous Immunoglobulin in Kawasaki Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Rigante, Donato; Andreozzi, Laura; Fastiggi, Michele; Bracci, Benedetta; Natale, Marco Francesco; Esposito, Susanna

    2016-02-24

    Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is the most relevant cause of heart disease in children living in developed countries. Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) has a preventive function in the formation of coronary artery abnormalities and a poor strictly-curative action in established coronary damage. More than two decades ago, the Harada score was set to assess which children with KS should be subject to administration of IVIG, evaluating retrospectively a large cohort of patients with regard to age, sex and laboratory data. Nowadays, high dose IVIG is administered to all children with a confirmed diagnosis of KS, but a tool for predicting non-responsiveness to the initial infusion of IVIG has not been found. The prediction of IVIG resistance is a crucial issue, as recognising these high-risk patients should consent the administration of an intensified initial treatment in combination with IVIG in order to prevent coronary injuries. Few reports have focused on factors, referring to both clinical parameters and laboratory data at the onset of KS, in order to predict which patients might be IVIG non-responsive. We have analysed three different risk scores which were formulated to predict IVIG resistance in Japanese children with typical KS, but their application in non-Japanese patients or in those with incomplete and atypical patterns of the disease has been studied in a fragmentary way. Overall, our analysis showed that early and definite ascertainment of likely IVIG non-responders who require additional therapies reducing the development of coronary artery involvement in children with KS is still a challenge.

  4. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  5. Association of microstructural and mechanical properties of cancellous bone and their fracture risk assessment tool scores

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Dengke; Li, Xin; Tao, Cheng; Dai, Ruchun; Ni, Jiangdong; Liao, Eryuan

    2015-01-01

    This study is to investigate the association between fracture probabilities determined by using the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) and the microstructure and mechanical properties of femoral bone trabecula in osteoporosis (OP) and osteoarthritis (OA) patients with hip replacements. By using FRAX, we evaluated fracture risks of the 102 patients with bone replacements. Using micro CT scanning, we obtained the analysis parameters of microstructural properties of cancellous bone. Through morphometric observations, fatigue tests and compression tests, we obtained parameters of mechanical properties of cancellous bones. Relevant Pearson analysis was performed to investigate the association between the fracture probability and the microstructure and mechanical properties of femoral bone trabecula in patients. Fifteen risk factors in FRAX were compared between OP and OA patients. FRAX hip fracture risk score and major osteoporotic in OP and OA patients were significantly different. FRAX was associated with tissue bone mineral density and volumetric bone mineral density. Our study suggests that the probabilities of major osteoporotic and hip fracture using FRAX is associated with bone mass but not with micro bone quality. PMID:26064297

  6. Examination of Substance Use, Risk Factors, and Protective Factors on Student Academic Test Score Performance

    PubMed Central

    Arthur, Michael W.; Brown, Eric C.; Briney, John S.; Hawkins, J. David; Abbott, Robert D.; Catalano, Richard F.; Becker, Linda; Langer, Michael; Mueller, Martin T.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND School administrators and teachers face difficult decisions about how best to use school resources in order to meet academic achievement goals. Many are hesitant to adopt prevention curricula that are not focused directly on academic achievement. Yet, some have hypothesized that prevention curricula can remove barriers to learning and, thus, promote achievement. This study examined relationships between school levels of student substance use and risk and protective factors that predict adolescent problem behaviors and achievement test performance in Washington State. METHODS Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models were used to examine predictive associations between school-averaged levels of substance use and risk and protective factors and Washington State students’ likelihood of meeting achievement test standards on the Washington Assessment of Student Learning, statistically controlling for demographic and economic factors known to be associated with achievement. RESULTS Results indicate that levels of substance use and risk/protective factors predicted the academic test score performance of students. Many of these effects remained significant even after controlling for model covariates. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that implementing prevention programs that target empirically identified risk and protective factors have the potential to positively affect students’ academic achievement. PMID:26149305

  7. Risk assessment of skin in rheumatic disease.

    PubMed

    Firth, Jill

    Patients with a rheumatic disease are considered to be at high risk of developing skin problems because of their restricted mobility, vascular complications and the type of medication they are taking.

  8. Dissection of major depressive disorder using polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia in two independent cohorts

    PubMed Central

    Whalley, H C; Adams, M J; Hall, L S; Clarke, T-K; Fernandez-Pujals, A M; Gibson, J; Wigmore, E; Hafferty, J; Hagenaars, S P; Davies, G; Campbell, A; Hayward, C; Lawrie, S M; Porteous, D J; Deary, I J; McIntosh, A M

    2016-01-01

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) is known for its substantial clinical and suspected causal heterogeneity. It is characterized by low mood, psychomotor slowing and increased levels of the personality trait neuroticism; factors also associated with schizophrenia (SCZ). It is possible that some cases of MDD may have a substantial genetic loading for SCZ. The presence of SCZ-like MDD subgroups would be indicated by an interaction between MDD status and polygenic risk of SCZ on cognitive, personality and mood measures. Here, we hypothesized that higher SCZ polygenic risk would define larger MDD case–control differences in cognitive ability, and smaller differences in distress and neuroticism. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for SCZ and their association with cognitive variables, neuroticism, mood and psychological distress were estimated in a large population-based cohort (Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study, GS:SFHS). The individuals were divided into those with, and without, depression (n=2587 and n=16 764, respectively) to test for the interactions between MDD status and schizophrenia risk. Replication was sought in UK Biobank (UKB; n=6049 and n=27 476 cases and controls, respectively). In both the cohorts, we found significant interactions between SCZ-PRS and MDD status for measures of psychological distress (βGS=−0.04, PGS=0.014 and βUKB=−0.09, PUKB⩽0.001 for GS:SFHS and UKB, respectively) and neuroticism (βGS=−0.04, PGS=0.002 and βUKB=−0.06, PUKB=0.023). In both the cohorts, there was a reduction of case–control differences on a background of higher genetic risk of SCZ. These findings suggest that depression on a background of high genetic risk for SCZ may show attenuated associations with distress and neuroticism. This may represent a causally distinct form of MDD more closely related to SCZ. PMID:27801894

  9. Correlations Between Oncotype DX Recurrence Score and Classic Risk Factors in Early Breast Cancer: Results of A Prospective Multicenter Study in Turkey

    PubMed Central

    Özmen, Vahit; Atasoy, Ajlan; Gökmen, Erhan; Özdoğan, Mustafa; Güler, Nilufer; Uras, Cihan; Ok, Engin; Demircan, Orhan; Işıkkdoğan, Abdurrahman; Cabioğlu, Neslihan; Şen, Fatma; Saip, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    Objective Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among Turkish women and the rate of early stage disease is increasing. The Oncotype DX 21-gene assay is predictive of distant recurrence in ER-positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer. We aimed to evaluate the correlations between Recurrence Score (RS) and routine risk factors. Materials and Methods Ten academic centers across Turkey participated in this prospective trial. Consecutive patients with breast cancer who had pT1-3, pN0-N1mic, ER-positive, and HER2-negative tumors were identified at tumor conferences. Both pre- and post-RS treatment decisions and physician perceptions were recorded on questionnaire forms. Correlations between RS and classic risk factors were evaluated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results Ten centers enrolled a total of 165 patients. The median tumor size was 2 cm. Of the 165 patients, 57% had low RS, 35% had intermediate RS, and 8% had high RS, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that progesterone receptor (PR) and Ki67 scores were significantly related to RS. Conclusion Oncotype DX Recurrence Score does not seem to have a significant correlation with the majority of classic risk factors, but it may have a correlation with PR score and Ki67 score.

  10. At Risk for Kidney Disease?

    MedlinePlus

    ... Albumin Children and Kidney Disease Additional Kidney Information Contact Us Health Information Center Phone: 1-800-860- ... to share this content freely. March 5, 2014​ Contact Us Health Information Center Phone: 1-800-860- ...

  11. Personalized genomic disease risk of volunteers

    PubMed Central

    Gonzalez-Garay, Manuel L.; McGuire, Amy L.; Pereira, Stacey; Caskey, C. Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is commonly used for researching the causes of genetic disorders. However, its usefulness in clinical practice for medical diagnosis is in early development. In this report, we demonstrate the value of NGS for genetic risk assessment and evaluate the limitations and barriers for the adoption of this technology into medical practice. We performed whole exome sequencing (WES) on 81 volunteers, and for each volunteer, we requested personal medical histories, constructed a three-generation pedigree, and required their participation in a comprehensive educational program. We limited our clinical reporting to disease risks based on only rare damaging mutations and known pathogenic variations in genes previously reported to be associated with human disorders. We identified 271 recessive risk alleles (214 genes), 126 dominant risk alleles (101 genes), and 3 X-recessive risk alleles (3 genes). We linked personal disease histories with causative disease genes in 18 volunteers. Furthermore, by incorporating family histories into our genetic analyses, we identified an additional five heritable diseases. Traditional genetic counseling and disease education were provided in verbal and written reports to all volunteers. Our report demonstrates that when genome results are carefully interpreted and integrated with an individual’s medical records and pedigree data, NGS is a valuable diagnostic tool for genetic disease risk. PMID:24082139

  12. Stratifying patients with haematuria into high or low risk groups for bladder cancer: a novel clinical scoring system.

    PubMed

    Hee, Tan Guan; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Ann, Ho Sue; Hemdan, Siti Nurhafizah; Shen, Lim Chun; Al-Fahmi Abdul Galib, Nurudin; Singam, Praveen; Chee Kong, Christopher Ho; Hong, Goh Eng; Bahadzor, Badrulhisham; Zainuddin, Zulkifli Md

    2013-01-01

    Haematuria is a common presentation of bladder cancer and requires a full urologic evaluation. This study aimed to develop a scoring system capable of stratifying patients with haematuria into high or low risk groups for having bladder cancer to help clinicians decide which patients need more urgent assessment. This cross- sectional study included all adult patients referred for haematuria and subsequently undergoing full urological evaluation in the years 2001 to 2011. Risk factors with strong association with bladder cancer in the study population were used to design the scoring system. Accuracy was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A total of 325 patients with haematuria were included, out of which 70 (21.5%) were diagnosed to have bladder cancer. Significant risk factors associated with bladder cancer were male gender, a history of cigarette smoking and the presence of gross haematuria. A scoring system using 4 clinical parameters as variables was created. The scores ranged between 6 to 14, and a score of 10 and above indicated high risk for having bladder cancer. It was found to have good accuracy with an area under the ROC curve of 80.4%, while the sensitivity and specificity were 90.0% and 55.7%, respectively. The scoring system designed in this study has the potential to help clinicians stratify patients who present with haematuria into high or low risk for having bladder cancer. This will enable high-risk patients to undergo urologic assessment earlier.

  13. An obesity genetic risk score is associated with metabolic syndrome in Chinese children.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaoyuan; Xi, Bo; Shen, Yue; Wu, Lijun; Hou, Dongqing; Cheng, Hong; Mi, Jie

    2014-02-10

    Recent genome-wide association studies have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with body mass index (BMI)/obesity. In this study, we aim to examine the associations of obesity related loci with risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a children population from China. A total of 431 children with MetS and 3046 controls were identified based on the modified ATPIII definition. 11 SNPs (FTO rs9939609, MC4R rs17782313, GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, FAIM2 rs7138803, NPC1 rs1805081, SEC16B rs10913469, SH2B1 rs4788102, PCSK1rs6235, KCTD15 rs29941, BAT2 rs2844479) were genotyped by TaqMan 7900. Of 11 SNPs, GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, and FAIM2 rs7138803 were nominally associated with risk of MetS (GNPDA2 rs10938397: odds ratio (OR)=1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.04-1.40, P=0.016; BDNF rs6265: OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.03-1.39, P=0.021; FAIM2 rs7138803: OR=1.20, 95% CI=1.02-1.40, P=0.025); genetic risk score (GRS) was significantly associated with risk of MetS (OR=1.09, 95% CI=1.04-1.15, P=5.26×10(-4)). After further adjustment for BMI, none of SNPs were associated with risk of MetS (all P>0.05); the association between GRS and risk of MetS remained nominally (OR=1.02, 95%CI=0.96-1.08, P=0.557). However, after correction for multiple testing, only GRS was statistically associated with risk of MetS in the model without adjustment for BMI. The present study demonstrated that there were nominal associations of GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, and FAIM2 rs7138803 with risk of MetS. The SNPs in combination have a significant effect on risk of MetS among Chinese children. These associations above were mediated by adiposity.

  14. Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

    PubMed

    Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

    2015-12-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD.

  15. Obesity, diabetes, and risk of Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Palacios, Natalia; Gao, Xiang; McCullough, Marjorie L; Jacobs, Eric J; Patel, Alpa V; Mayo, Tinisha; Schwarzschild, Michael A; Ascherio, Alberto

    2011-10-01

    The aim of this work was to investigate whether obesity and diabetes are related to risk of Parkinson's disease. We prospectively followed 147,096 participants in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort from 1992 to 2005. Participants provided information on anthropometric variables and medical history at baseline and on waist circumference in 1997. Incident cases of Parkinson's disease (n = 656) were confirmed by treating neurologists and medical record review. Relative risks were estimated using proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, gender, smoking, and other risk factors. Neither body mass index nor waist circumference significantly predicted Parkinson's disease risk. Relative risk comparing individuals with a baseline body mass index of ≥ 30 to those with a body mass index <23 was 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.75, 1.34; P trend: 0.79), and that comparing individuals with a waist circumference in the top category (≥ 40.3 inches in men and ≥ 35 inches in women) to those in the bottom category (<34.5 inches in men and <28 inches in women) was 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.95, 1.93; P trend: 0.08). History of diabetes was not significantly associated with Parkinson's disease risk (combined relative risks = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 1.25; P heterogeneity = 0.96). In addition, neither body mass index at age 18 nor changes in weight between age 18 and baseline were significantly associated with Parkinson's disease risk. The results did not differ significantly by gender. Our results do not provide evidence for a relationship between body mass index, weight change, waist circumference, or baseline diabetes and risk of Parkinson's disease.

  16. Development and First Validation of a Disease Activity Score for Gout

    PubMed Central

    Carrara, Greta; Viroli, Cinzia; Cimmino, Marco A.; Taylor, William J.; Manara, Maria; Govoni, Marcello; Salaffi, Fausto; Punzi, Leonardo; Montecucco, Carlomaurizio; Matucci‐Cerinic, Marco; Minisola, Giovanni; Ariani, Alarico; Galossi, Alessandra; Lauriti, Ciro; Fracassi, Elena; Idolazzi, Luca; Bardelli, Marco; Selvi, Enrico; Tirri, Enrico; Furini, Federica; Inverardi, Flora; Calabrò, Andrea; Porta, Francesco; Bittelli, Raffaele; Venturino, Francesco; Capsoni, Franco; Prevete, Immacolata; Sebastiani, Giandomenico; Selmi, Carlo; Fabbriciani, Gianluigi; D'Avola, Giovanni; Botticella, Giulia; Serale, Francesca; Seminara, Giulia; D'Alessandro, Giuseppe; Santo, Leonardo; Longato, Lorena; Zaccara, Eleonora; Sinigaglia, Luigi; Atteritano, Marco; Broggini, Marco; Caprioli, Marta; Favero, Marta; Sallì, Salvatore; Scarati, Marco; Parisi, Simone; Malavolta, Nazzarena; Corvaglia, Stefania; Scarpato, Salvatore; Veneto, Vittorio

    2016-01-01

    Objective To develop a new composite disease activity score for gout and provide its first validation. Methods Disease activity has been defined as the ongoing presence of urate deposits that lead to acute arthritis and joint damage. Every measure for each Outcome Measures in Rheumatology core domain was considered. A 3‐step approach (factor analysis, linear discriminant analysis, and linear regression) was applied to derive the Gout Activity Score (GAS). Decision to change treatment or 6‐month flare count were used as the surrogate criteria of high disease activity. Baseline and 12‐month followup data of 446 patients included in the Kick‐Off of the Italian Network for Gout cohort were used. Construct‐ and criterion‐related validity were tested. External validation on an independent sample is reported. Results Factor analysis identified 5 factors: patient‐reported outcomes, joint examination, flares, tophi, and serum uric acid (sUA). Discriminant function analysis resulted in a correct classification of 79%. Linear regression analysis identified a first candidate GAS including 12‐month flare count, sUA, visual analog scale (VAS) of pain, VAS global activity assessment, swollen and tender joint counts, and a cumulative measure of tophi. Alternative scores were also developed. The developed GAS demonstrated a good correlation with functional disability (criterion validity) and discrimination between patient‐ and physician‐reported measures of active disease (construct validity). The results were reproduced in the external sample. Conclusion This study developed and validated a composite measure of disease activity in gout. Further testing is required to confirm its generalizability, responsiveness, and usefulness in assisting with clinical decisions. PMID:26815286

  17. Oxidative balance scores and risk of incident colorectal cancer in a US prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Dash, Chiranjeev; Bostick, Roberd M; Goodman, Michael; Flanders, W Dana; Patel, Roshni; Shah, Roma; Campbell, Peter T; McCullough, Marjorie L

    2015-04-15

    Although oxidative stress is implicated in colorectal carcinogenesis, human studies on associations of individual prooxidants and antioxidants with colorectal cancer (CRC) have been inconclusive. We incorporated individual environmental factors known to affect oxidative stress into 4 oxidative balance scores (OBS) and investigated their associations with CRC in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort. During 1999-2009, a total of 1,109 incident CRC cases were identified among 80,063 participants in the Nutrition Cohort who had completed detailed questionnaires. Four OBS with different weighting methods (equal weights, literature review-based, a posteriori data-based, and weights based on Bayesian analysis) were created by combining 16 dietary and nondietary lifestyle factors. Higher values for all 4 OBS, representing more antioxidant exposures than prooxidant exposures, were associated with 41%-53% lower risks of CRC; for example, the relative risk for the highest OBS quartile versus the lowest in the Bayesian analysis was 0.50 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 0.61). The associations were more modest when OBS was restricted to either dietary or nondietary components. These results, obtained using comprehensive summary measures of oxidative balance-especially considering the similarity of the findings derived using the different weighting methods-support the hypothesis that a predominance of antioxidant lifestyle exposures (both dietary and nondietary) over prooxidant lifestyle exposures reduces risk of CRC.

  18. Acoustic radiation force impulse elastography for chronic liver disease: comparison with ultrasound-based scores of experienced radiologists, Child-Pugh scores and liver function tests.

    PubMed

    Kim, Ji Eun; Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung Hwan; Kim, Se Hyung; Lee, Jeong Min; Han, Joon Koo; Choi, Byung Ihn

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of our study was to investigate whether acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) elastography provides better diagnostic performance for diagnosis of chronic liver disease and correlates better with Child-Pugh scores and liver function tests, compared with an ultrasound (US) scoring system based on visual assessment of conventional B-mode US images by experienced radiologists. Five hundred and twenty-one patients with clinically proven chronic liver disease (n = 293), fatty liver (n = 95) or normal liver (n = 133) were included in this study. B-mode liver US and ARFI elastography were performed in all patients. ARFI elastography was performed at least five times, with each measurement obtained at a different area of the right hepatic lobe; mean shear wave velocity (SWV) was calculated for each patient. The mean SWV was compared with US-based scores from two radiologists (based on liver surface nodularity, parenchyma echotexture and hepatic vein contour), Child-Pugh scores and liver function tests. The mean SWV of the normal liver group was 1.08 m/s ± 0.15; of the fatty liver group, 1.02 m/s ± 0.16; and of the chronic liver disease group, 1.66 m/s ± 0.60 (p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the mean SWV in ARFI elastography was significantly higher than that of the conventional B-mode US-based scores by two radiologists (0.89 vs. 0.74 and 0.77, p < 0.05), with a sensitivity of 75.4% and a specificity of 89.5% at the cut-off value of 1.22 m/s. The sensitivity of the mean SWV was significantly higher than the US-based scores (p < 0.001), although the specificity was not (p > 0.05). The mean SWV was better correlated with Child-Pugh scores and all liver function tests (except total protein) than the US-based scores from two radiologists. In conclusion, ARFI elastography showed better diagnostic performance than visual assessment of experienced radiologists for diagnosis of chronic liver disease, as well as for

  19. Neonatal status: an objective scoring method for identifying infants at risk for poor outcome.

    PubMed

    Salamy, A; Davis, S; Eldredge, L; Wakeley, A; Tooley, W H

    1988-01-01

    The likelihood of sustaining neurological, sensory or cognitive deficits is considerably greater for very low birthweight (VLBW) infants who require intensive care in early postnatal life than those without major neonatal illness. Identifying which, if any, medical events are responsible for an adverse outcome is most difficult in the face of multiple concurrent complications. In this research, a principal components analysis was performed in order to arrive at a set of orthogonal variables which succinctly described clinical involvement in the nursery. With this procedure, a single hypothetical factor depicting neonatal status (NS) was computed. Principal component scores were then generated for NS and assigned to 252 VLBW (less than 1500 g) infants. These subjects were followed prospectively from birth to 4 years of age. Standardized measures of neurological, sensory and intellectual function were regularly administered. Neonatal status was shown to be significantly correlated with the various test results and predictive of long-term development. When subjects were divided into quartiles with respect to NS, a specific subgroup was identified as "at high risk" for poor outcome. Those subjects falling into the lower quartile incurred more neurological abnormalities persisting beyond the first year. They also suffered a higher incidence of intracranial hemorrhage and sensori-neural hearing loss. In addition, the lower 25%, as a group, scored well below all others on traditional tests of mental ability. These differences were sustained throughout infancy and early childhood and could not be attributed to a number of demographic variables including sex, gestational age, birthweight, Apgar scores or parental educational level.

  20. Prediction and validation of disease genes using HeteSim Scores.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Xiangxiang; Liao, Yuanlu; Liu, Yuansheng; Zou, Quan

    2016-02-12

    Deciphering the gene disease association is an important goal in biomedical research. In this paper, we use a novel relevance measure, called HeteSim, to prioritize candidate disease genes. Two methods based on heterogeneous networks constructed using protein-protein interaction, gene-phenotype associations, and phenotype-phenotype similarity, are presented. In HeteSim MultiPath (HSMP), HeteSim scores of different paths are combined with a constant that dampens the contributions of longer paths. In HeteSim SVM (HSSVM), HeteSim scores are combined with a machine learning method. The 3-fold experiments show that our non-machine learning method HSMP performs better than the existing non-machine learning methods, our machine learning method HSSVM obtains similar accuracy with the best existing machine learning method CATAPULT. From the analysis of the top 10 predicted genes for different diseases, we found that HSSVM avoid the disadvantage of the existing machine learning based methods, which always predict similar genes for different diseases. The data sets and Matlab code for the two methods are freely available for download at http://datamining.xmu.edu.cn/xzeng/dgassociations/klk/WebRoot/index.jsp.

  1. Improving participant selection in disease management programmes: insights gained from propensity score stratification.

    PubMed

    Linden, Ariel; Adams, John L

    2008-10-01

    While the randomized controlled trial (RCT) remains the gold-standard study design for evaluating treatment effect, outcomes researchers turn to powerful quasi-experimental designs when only observational studies can be conducted. Within these designs, propensity score matching is one of the most popular to evaluate disease management (DM) programme effectiveness. Given that DM programmes generally have a much smaller number of participants than non-participants in the population, propensity score matching will typically result in all or nearly all participants finding successful matches, while most of the non-participants in the population remain unmatched and thereby excluded from the analysis. By excluding data from the unmatched population, the effect of non-treatment in the remaining population with the disease is not captured. In the present study, we examine changes in hospitalization rates stratified by propensity score quintiles across the entire population allowing us to gain insight as to how well the programme chose its participants, or if the programme could have been effective on those individuals not explicitly targeted for the intervention. These data indicate the presence of regression to the mean, and suggest that the DM programme may be overly limited to only the highest strata when there is evidence of a potential benefit for those in all the lower strata as well.

  2. Biomonitoring of pesticides by pine needles--chemical scoring, risk of exposure, levels and trends.

    PubMed

    Ratola, Nuno; Homem, Vera; Silva, José Avelino; Araújo, Rita; Amigo, José Manuel; Santos, Lúcia; Alves, Arminda

    2014-04-01

    Vegetation is a useful matrix for the quantification of atmospheric pollutants such as semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). In particular, pine needles stand out as effective biomonitors due to the excellent uptake properties of their waxy layer. Having previously validated an original and reliable method to analyse pesticides in pine needles, our work team set the objective of this study to determine the levels of 18 pesticides in Pinus pinea needles collected in 12 different sampling sites in Portugal. These compounds were selected among a total of 70 pesticides by previous chemical scoring, developed to assess their probability to occur in the atmosphere. The risk of exposure was evaluated by the binomial chemical score/frequency of occurrence in the analysed samples. Levels and trends of the chemical families and target of the pesticides were obtained regarding the type of land occupation of the selected sites, including the use of advanced statistics (principal component analysis, PCA). Finally, some correlations with several characteristics of the sampling sites (population, energy consumption, meteorology, etc.) were also investigated.

  3. Coronary CT and the Coronary Calcium Score, the Future of ED Risk Stratification?

    PubMed Central

    Fernandez-Friera, Leticia; Garcia-Alvarez, Ana; Guzman, Gabriela; Garcia, Mario J

    2012-01-01

    Accurate and efficient evaluation of acute chest pain remains clinically challenging because traditional diagnostic modalities have many limitations. Recent improvement in non-invasive imaging technologies could potentially improve both diagnostic efficiency and clinical outcomes of patients with acute chest pain while reducing unnecessary hospitalizations. However, there is still controversy regarding much of the evidence for these technologies. This article reviews the role of coronary artery calcium score and the coronary computed tomography in the assessment of individual coronary risk and their usefulness in the emergency department in facilitating appropriate disposition decisions. The evidence base and clinical applications for both techniques are also described, together with cost- effectiveness and radiation exposure considerations. PMID:22708911

  4. Parkinson's disease: A risk factor for osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Malochet-Guinamand, Sandrine; Durif, Franck; Thomas, Thierry

    2015-12-01

    Parkinson's disease is the most common neurodegenerative disease after Alzheimer's disease. On the long term, it may be complicated by various musculoskeletal problems, such as osteoporotic fractures, that have significant socioeconomic consequences. Indeed, patients suffering from Parkinson's disease have a higher fracture risk, particularly hip fracture risk, than other subjects of the same age because of both a higher risk of falls and lower bone mineral density. Bone loss in Parkinson's disease may be associated with the severity and duration of the disease. We review here the different suspected mechanisms of accelerated bone loss in Parkinson's disease, amongst which weight loss and reduced mobility appear to play key roles. Antiparkinsonian drugs, particularly levodopa, may also be associated with decreased bone mineral density as a result of hyperhomocysteinaemia. We discuss the role of other nutritional deficiencies, such as vitamin B12, folate or vitamin K. In conclusion, it seems necessary to screen for and treat osteoporosis in this at-risk population, while actions to prevent falls are still disappointing. A better understanding of the factors explaining bone loss in this population would help implementing preventive actions.

  5. Seed Implant Retention Score Predicts the Risk of Prolonged Urinary Retention After Prostate Brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Hoon K.; Adams, Marc T.; Shi, Qiuhu; Basillote, Jay; LaMonica, Joanne; Miranda, Luis; Motta, Joseph

    2010-04-15

    Purpose: To risk-stratify patients for urinary retention after prostate brachytherapy according to a novel seed implant retention score (SIRS). Patients and Methods: A total of 835 patients underwent transperineal prostate seed implant from March 1993 to January 2007; 197 patients had {sup 125}I and 638 patients had {sup 103}Pd brachytherapy. Four hundred ninety-four patients had supplemental external-beam radiation. The final downsized prostate volume was used for the 424 patients who had neoadjuvant hormone therapy. Retention was defined as reinsertion of a Foley catheter after the implant. Results: Retention developed in 7.4% of patients, with an average duration of 6.7 weeks. On univariate analysis, implant without supplemental external-beam radiation (10% vs. 5.6%; p = 0.02), neoadjuvant hormone therapy (9.4% vs. 5.4%; p = 0.02), baseline alpha-blocker use (12.5% vs. 6.3%; p = 0.008), and increased prostate volume (13.4% vs. 6.9% vs. 2.9%, >45 cm{sup 3}, 25-45 cm{sup 3}, <25 cm{sup 3}; p = 0.0008) were significantly correlated with increased rates of retention. On multivariate analysis, implant without supplemental external-beam radiation, neoadjuvant hormone therapy, baseline alpha-blocker use, and increased prostate volume were correlated with retention. A novel SIRS was modeled as the combined score of these factors, ranging from 0 to 5. There was a significant correlation between the SIRS and retention (p < 0.0001). The rates of retention were 0, 4%, 5.6%, 9%, 20.9%, and 36.4% for SIRS of 0 to 5, respectively. Conclusions: The SIRS may identify patients who are at high risk for prolonged retention after prostate brachytherapy. A prospective validation study of the SIRS is planned.

  6. A new high resolution computed tomography scoring system for pulmonary fibrosis, pleural disease, and emphysema in patients with asbestos related disease.

    PubMed Central

    Jarad, N A; Wilkinson, P; Pearson, M C; Rudd, R M

    1992-01-01

    The aim of this study was to describe a scoring system for high resolution computed tomographic (HRCT) scans analogous to the International Labour Office (ILO) scoring system for plain chest radiographs in patients with asbestos related disease. Interstitial fibrosis, pleural disease, and emphysema were scored, the reproducibility and the interobserver agreement using this scoring system were examined, and the extent of the various types of disease was correlated with measurements of lung function. Sixty asbestos workers (five women and 55 men) mean age 59 (range 34-78) were studied. The lungs were divided into upper, middle, and lower thirds. An HRCT score for the extent of pleural disease and pulmonary disease in each third was recorded in a way analogous to the International Labour Office (ILO) method of scoring pleural and parenchymal disease on chest radiographs. A CT score for the extent of emphysema was also recorded. Pleural disease and interstitial fibrosis on the plain chest radiographs were assessed according to the ILO scoring system. A chest radiographic score for emphysema analogous to that used for HRCT was also recorded. Two independent readers assigned HRCT scores that differed by two categories or less in 96%, 92%, and 85% compared with 90%, 78%, and 79% of cases for chest radiographs for fibrosis, emphysema, and pleural disease respectively. There was better intraobserver repeatability for the HRCT scores than for the chest radiograph scores for all disorders. Multiple regression analysis showed that scores for interstitial fibrosis, emphysema, and pleural disease on chest radiographs and HRCT correlated to a similar degree with impairment of lung function. Images PMID:1536823

  7. Weighted Genetic Risk Scores and Prediction of Weight Gain in Solid Organ Transplant Populations

    PubMed Central

    Saigi-Morgui, Núria; Quteineh, Lina; Bochud, Pierre-Yves; Crettol, Severine; Kutalik, Zoltán; Wojtowicz, Agnieszka; Bibert, Stéphanie; Beckmann, Sonja; Mueller, Nicolas J; Binet, Isabelle; van Delden, Christian; Steiger, Jürg; Mohacsi, Paul; Stirnimann, Guido; Soccal, Paola M.; Pascual, Manuel; Eap, Chin B

    2016-01-01

    Background Polygenic obesity in Solid Organ Transplant (SOT) populations is considered a risk factor for the development of metabolic abnormalities and graft survival. Few studies to date have studied the genetics of weight gain in SOT recipients. We aimed to determine whether weighted genetic risk scores (w-GRS) integrating genetic polymorphisms from GWAS studies (SNP group#1 and SNP group#2) and from Candidate Gene studies (SNP group#3) influence BMI in SOT populations and if they predict ≥10% weight gain (WG) one year after transplantation. To do so, two samples (nA = 995, nB = 156) were obtained from naturalistic studies and three w-GRS were constructed and tested for association with BMI over time. Prediction of 10% WG at one year after transplantation was assessed with models containing genetic and clinical factors. Results w-GRS were associated with BMI in sample A and B combined (BMI increased by 0.14 and 0.11 units per additional risk allele in SNP group#1 and #2, respectively, p-values<0.008). w-GRS of SNP group#3 showed an effect of 0.01 kg/m2 per additional risk allele when combining sample A and B (p-value 0.04). Models with genetic factors performed better than models without in predicting 10% WG at one year after transplantation. Conclusions This is the first study in SOT evaluating extensively the association of w-GRS with BMI and the influence of clinical and genetic factors on 10% of WG one year after transplantation, showing the importance of integrating genetic factors in the final model. Genetics of obesity among SOT recipients remains an important issue and can contribute to treatment personalization and prediction of WG after transplantation. PMID:27788139

  8. Coronary Artery Calcium Assessment in CKD: Utility in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment and Treatment?

    PubMed

    Bashir, Ahmed; Moody, William E; Edwards, Nicola C; Ferro, Charles J; Townend, Jonathan N; Steeds, Richard P

    2015-06-01

    Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a strong predictor of cardiovascular event rates in the general population, and scoring with multislice computed tomography commonly is used to improve risk stratification beyond clinical variables. CAC is accelerated in chronic kidney disease, but this occurs as a result of 2 distinct pathologic processes that result in medial (arteriosclerosis) and intimal (atherosclerosis) deposition. Although there are data that indicate that very high CAC scores may be associated with increased risk of death in hemodialysis, average CAC scores in most patients are elevated at a level at which discriminatory power may be reduced. There is a lack of data to guide management strategies in these patients based on CAC scores. There are even fewer data available for nondialysis patients, and it is uncertain whether CAC score confers an elevated risk of premature cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in such patients. In this article, we review the evidence regarding the utility of CAC score for noninvasive cardiovascular risk assessment in individuals with chronic kidney disease, using a clinical vignette that highlights some of the limitations in using CAC score and considerations in risk stratification.

  9. The correction of TTO-scores for utility curvature using a risk-free utility elicitation method.

    PubMed

    Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes and employs a new method to correct time tradeoff (TTO)-scores for utility of life duration curvature. In contrast to most previous attempts to do so, it uses a risk-free method that corresponds well to the risk-free properties of the TTO-method. In addition, the method is robust to several biases that occur under methods that incorporate risk. Our results show a significant degree of curvature in utility of life duration and therefore a clear bias in TTO-scores. The risk-free method seems to be useful to correct TTO-scores for this influence and leads to significantly higher quality-adjustment factors.

  10. The Reliability of Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints–C-Reactive Protein Might Be Overestimated in a Subgroup of Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients, When the Score Is Solely Based on Subjective Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Jensen Hansen, Inger Marie; Asmussen Andreasen, Rikke; van Bui Hansen, Mark Nam; Emamifar, Amir

    2017-01-01

    Background Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints (DAS28) is a scoring system to evaluate disease activity and treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A DAS28 score of greater than 3.2 is a well-described limit for treatment intensification; however, the reliability of DAS28 might be overestimated. Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of DAS28 in RA, especially focusing on a subgroup of patients with a DAS28 score of greater than 3.2. Methods Data from RA patients registered in the local part of Danish DANBIO Registry were collected in May 2015. Patients were categorized into 2 groups: First, those with DAS28 >3.2 with at least one swollen joint (SJ) or elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) (“objective group”), and second, patients with a DAS28 >3.2 who had no SJ, and CRP values were within the reference range (“subjective group”). Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints, Clinical Disease Activity Index, and Health Assessment Questionnaire scores were calculated for each group. We defined new score, DAS28 subjective, to focus on subjective parameters. Results Two hundred thirty patients were included; 198 (86.1%) and 32 (13.9%) patients were in the objective and subjective groups, respectively. Patients in the subjective group had lower mean values of DAS28 (P < 0.001) and Evaluator Global Assessment (P < 0.001) with less common immunoglobulin M rheumatoid factor (P < 0.001) and anti–cyclic citrullinated peptide positivity (P = 0.02) and contrarily higher mean values of tender joints (P = 0.04) and DAS28 based on subjective parameters (P = 0.003) compared with the objective group. Conclusions Rheumatoid arthritis scoring systems should be used cautiously in patients who are considered for treatment intensification. Patients with central sensitization and psychological problems and those with false-positive diagnosis of RA are at high risk of overtreatment. PMID:27870649

  11. Dysbiosis a risk factor for celiac disease.

    PubMed

    Girbovan, Anamaria; Sur, Genel; Samasca, Gabriel; Lupan, Iulia

    2017-04-01

    Celiac disease remains one of the most challenging pathologies of the small intestine. It involves multiple pathogenic pathways and there are no disease-changing pharmacological agents available against it yet. The term microbiota refers to the community of microorganisms that inhabit a particular region of the body. Normal gut microbiota has a vital role in maintaining the intestinal homeostasis and promoting health. Celiac disease is associated with microbiota alteration, especially with an increase in the number of Gram-negative bacteria and a decrease in the number of Gram-positive bacteria. There is a strong relationship between intestinal dysbiosis and celiac disease, and recent studies are aimed at determining whether the celiac disease is a risk factor for dysbiosis or dysbiosis is for celiac disease. Therefore, the aim of this review was to assess the latest findings regarding the gut microbiota and its impact on the celiac disease, including therapeutic aspects.

  12. Incremental prognostic value of the SYNTAX score to late gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance images for patients with stable coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Kato, Shingo; Saito, Naka; Kirigaya, Hidekuni; Gyotoku, Daiki; Iinuma, Naoki; Kusakawa, Yuka; Iguchi, Kohei; Nakachi, Tatsuya; Fukui, Kazuki; Futaki, Masaaki; Iwasawa, Tae; Taguri, Masataka; Kimura, Kazuo; Umemura, Satoshi

    2016-06-01

    The prognostic significance of the SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI with Taxus and cardiac surgery) score has recently been demonstrated in patients with stable multivessel or left main coronary artery disease (CAD). The present study determines whether adding the SYNTAX score to Framingham risk score (FRS), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and presence of myocardial infarction (MI) by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) magnetic resonance imaging can improve the risk stratification in patients with stable CAD. We calculated the SYNTAX score in 161 patients with stable CAD (mean age: 66 ± 10 years old). During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 56 (35 %) of 161 patients developed cardiovascular events defined as cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, cerebral infarction, unstable angina pectoris, hospitalization due to heart failure and revascularization. Multivariate Cox regression analysis selected triglycerides [hazard ratio (HR): 1.005 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.001-1.008), p < 0.008], presence of LGE [HR: 6.329 (95 % CI: 2.662-15.05), p < 0.001] and the SYNTAX score [HR: 1.085 (95 % CI: 1.044-1.127), p < 0.001] as risk factors for future cardiovascular events. Adding the SYNTAX score to FRS, EF and LGE significantly improved the net reclassification index (NRI) [40.4 % (95 % CI: 18.1-54.8 %), p < 0.05] with an increase in C-statistics of 0.089 (from 0.707 to 0.796). An increase in C-statistics and significant improvement of NRI showed that adding the SYNTAX score to the FRS, LVEF and LGE incrementally improved risk stratification in patient with stable CAD.

  13. Graph-guided joint prediction of class label and clinical scores for the Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Yu, Guan; Liu, Yufeng; Shen, Dinggang

    2016-09-01

    Accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and its prodromal stage, i.e., mild cognitive impairment, is very important for early treatment. Over the last decade, various machine learning methods have been proposed to predict disease status and clinical scores from brain images. It is worth noting that many features extracted from brain images are correlated significantly. In this case, feature selection combined with the additional correlation information among features can effectively improve classification/regression performance. Typically, the correlation information among features can be modeled by the connectivity of an undirected graph, where each node represents one feature and each edge indicates that the two involved features are correlated significantly. In this paper, we propose a new graph-guided multi-task learning method incorporating this undirected graph information to predict multiple response variables (i.e., class label and clinical scores) jointly. Specifically, based on the sparse undirected feature graph, we utilize a new latent group Lasso penalty to encourage the correlated features to be selected together. Furthermore, this new penalty also encourages the intrinsic correlated tasks to share a common feature subset. To validate our method, we have performed many numerical studies using simulated datasets and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset. Compared with the other methods, our proposed method has very promising performance.

  14. Score test for familial aggregation in probands studies: application to Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Commenges, D; Jacqmin, H; Letenneur, L; Van Duijn, C M

    1995-06-01

    When studying familial aggregation of a disease, the following two-stage design is often used: first select index subjects (cases and controls); then record data on their relatives. The likelihood corresponding to this design is derived and a score test of homogeneity is proposed for testing the hypothesis of no-aggregation. This test takes into account the selection procedure and allows adjustment to be made for explanatory variables. It appears as the sum of three terms: a pure test of homogeneity, a test of comparison of observed minus expected cases in the two groups, and a term which adjusts for the possible unequal probabilities of disease of the index subjects. Asymptotic efficiency and a simulation study show that the proposed test is superior to either the pure homogeneity test or tests based on the comparison of numbers of affected in the two groups. The test statistic, which has an asymptotically standard normal distribution, is applied to a study of familial aggregation of early-onset Alzheimer's disease for which a highly significant value (9.46) is obtained: this is the highest value among the three tests compared, in agreement with the simulation study. A logistic normal model is fitted to the data, taking account of the selection procedure: it allows to estimate the regression parameters and the variance of the random effect; the likelihood ratio test for familial aggregation seems less powerful than the score test.

  15. Erectile function and risk of Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Gao, Xiang; Chen, Honglei; Schwarzschild, Michael A; Glasser, Dale B; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Rimm, Eric B; Ascherio, Alberto

    2007-12-15

    Erectile dysfunction is common among individuals with Parkinson's disease, but it is unknown whether it precedes the onset of the classic features of Parkinson's disease. To address this question, the authors examined whether erectile dysfunction was associated with Parkinson's disease risk in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Analyses included 32,616 men free of Parkinson's disease at baseline in 1986 who in 2000 completed a retrospective questionnaire with questions on erectile dysfunction in different time periods. Relative risks were computed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age, smoking, caffeine intake, history of diabetes, and other covariates. Among men who reported their erectile function before 1986, 200 were diagnosed with Parkinson's disease during 1986-2002. Men with erectile dysfunction before 1986 were 3.8 times more likely to develop Parkinson's disease during the follow-up than were those with very good erectile function (relative risk = 3.8, 95% confidence interval: 2.4, 6.0; p < 0.0001). Multivariate-adjusted relative risks of Parkinson's disease were 2.7, 3.7, and 4.0 (95% confidence interval: 1.4, 11.1; p = 0.008) for participants with first onset of erectile dysfunction (before 1986) at 60 or more, 50-59, and less than 50 years of age, respectively, relative to those without erectile dysfunction. In conclusion, in this retrospective analysis in a large cohort of men, the authors observed that erectile dysfunction was associated with a higher risk of developing Parkinson's disease.

  16. Genetic Addiction Risk Score (GARS): molecular neurogenetic evidence for predisposition to Reward Deficiency Syndrome (RDS).

    PubMed

    Blum, Kenneth; Oscar-Berman, Marlene; Demetrovics, Zsolt; Barh, Debmalya; Gold, Mark S

    2014-12-01

    We have published extensively on the neurogenetics of brain reward systems with reference to the genes related to dopaminergic function in particular. In 1996, we coined "Reward Deficiency Syndrome" (RDS), to portray behaviors found to have gene-based association with hypodopaminergic function. RDS as a useful concept has been embraced in many subsequent studies, to increase our understanding of Substance Use Disorder (SUD), addictions, and other obsessive, compulsive, and impulsive behaviors. Interestingly, albeit others, in one published study, we were able to describe lifetime RDS behaviors in a recovering addict (17 years sober) blindly by assessing resultant Genetic Addiction Risk Score (GARS™) data only. We hypothesize that genetic testing at an early age may be an effective preventive strategy to reduce or eliminate pathological substance and behavioral seeking activity. Here, we consider a select number of genes, their polymorphisms, and associated risks for RDS whereby, utilizing GWAS, there is evidence for convergence to reward candidate genes. The evidence presented serves as a plausible brain-print providing relevant genetic information that will reinforce targeted therapies, to improve recovery and prevent relapse on an individualized basis. The primary driver of RDS is a hypodopaminergic trait (genes) as well as epigenetic states (methylation and deacetylation on chromatin structure). We now have entered a new era in addiction medicine that embraces the neuroscience of addiction and RDS as a pathological condition in brain reward circuitry that calls for appropriate evidence-based therapy and early genetic diagnosis and that requires further intensive investigation.

  17. An exposure-weighted score test for genetic associations integrating environmental risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Han, Summer S.; Rosenberg, Philip S.; Ghosh, Arpita; Landi, Marisa Teresa; Caporaso, Neil E.; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

    2015-01-01

    1. Summary Current methods for detecting genetic associations lack full consideration of the background effects of environmental exposures. Recently proposed methods to account for environmental exposures have focused on logistic regressions with gene-environment interactions. In this report, we developed a test for genetic association, encompassing a broad range of risk models, including linear, logistic and probit, for specifying joint effects of genetic and environmental exposures. We obtained the test statistics by maximizing over a class of score tests, each of which involves modified standard tests of genetic association through a weight function. This weight function reflects the potential heterogeneity of the genetic effects by levels of environmental exposures under a particular model. Simulation studies demonstrate the robust power of these methods for detecting genetic associations under a wide range of scenarios. Applications of these methods are further illustrated using data from genome-wide association studies of type 2 diabetes with body mass index and of lung cancer risk with smoking. PMID:26134142

  18. A Novel Easy-to-Use Prediction Scheme for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Cologne-WATCH (C-WATCH) Risk Score.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Vera; Neubauer, Henrik; Heinzler, Julia; Smarczyk, Anna; Hellmich, Martin; Bowe, Andrea; Kuetting, Fabian; Demir, Muenevver; Pelc, Agnes; Schulte, Sigrid; Toex, Ullrich; Nierhoff, Dirk; Steffen, Hans-Michael

    2015-09-01

    Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the leading indication for emergency endoscopy. Scoring schemes have been developed for immediate risk stratification. However, most of these scores include endoscopic findings and are based on data from patients with nonvariceal bleeding. The aim of our study was to design a pre-endoscopic score for acute UGIB--including variceal bleeding--in order to identify high-risk patients requiring urgent clinical management. The scoring system was developed using a data set consisting of 586 patients with acute UGIB. These patients were identified from the emergency department as well as all inpatient services at the University Hospital of Cologne within a 2-year period (01/2007-12/2008). Further data from a cohort of 322 patients who presented to our endoscopy unit with acute UGIB in 2009 served for external/temporal validation.Clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic parameters, as well as further data on medical history and medication were retrospectively collected from the electronic clinical documentation system. A multivariable logistic regression was fitted to the development set to obtain a risk score using recurrent bleeding, need for intervention (angiography, surgery), or death within 30 days as a composite endpoint. Finally, the obtained risk score was evaluated on the validation set. Only C-reactive protein, white blood cells, alanine-aminotransferase, thrombocytes, creatinine, and hemoglobin were identified as significant predictors for the composite endpoint. Based on the regression coefficients of these variables, an easy-to-use point scoring scheme (C-WATCH) was derived to estimate the risk of complications from 3% to 86% with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.723 in the development set and 0.704 in the validation set. In the validation set, no patient in the identified low-risk group (0-1 points), but 38.7% of patients in the high-risk group (≥ 2 points) reached the composite endpoint. Our easy-to-use scoring

  19. Biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk in women.

    PubMed

    Manson, JoAnn E; Bassuk, Shari S

    2015-03-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), including coronary heart disease and stroke, is the leading cause of death among U.S. women and men. Established cardiovascular risk factors such as smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and elevated total cholesterol, and risk prediction models based on such factors, perform well but do not perfectly predict future risk of CVD. Thus, there has been much recent interest among cardiovascular researchers in identifying novel biomarkers to aid in risk prediction. Such markers include alternative lipids, B-type natriuretic peptides, high-sensitivity troponin, coronary artery calcium, and genetic markers. This article reviews the role of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, risk prediction tools, and selected novel biomarkers and other exposures in predicting risk of developing CVD in women. The predictive role of novel cardiovascular biomarkers for women in primary prevention settings requires additional study, as does the diagnostic and prognostic utility of cardiac troponins for acute coronary syndromes in clinical settings. Sex differences in the clinical expression and physiology of metabolic syndrome may have implications for cardiovascular outcomes. Consideration of exposures that are unique to, or more prevalent in, women may also help to refine cardiovascular risk estimates in this group.

  20. A Comparison of Brunt Criteria, the Non Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Activity Score (NAS) & a Proposed NAS-including fibrosis as Valid Diagnostic Scores for NASH

    PubMed Central

    Santiago-Rolón, Amarilys; Purcell, Dagmary; Rosado, Kathia; Toro, Doris H.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) can result in cirrhosis and end stage liver disease. It is of utmost importance to differentiate NASH from simple steatosis. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of NASH in Latino veterans with metabolic syndrome and compare histologic grading using Brunt Criteria, the NAFLD activity score (NAS), and a proposed NAS score including fibrosis. Methods Veterans with metabolic syndrome, hepatic steatosis and elevation of ALT/AST who underwent a liver biopsy from 2004-2010 were included in this study. Biopsies were evaluated by a single blinded Hepatopathologist. Steatosis, lobular inflammation, ballooning and fibrosis were graded per specimen. Each biopsy was evaluated using Brunt criteria, NAS and NAS plus fibrosis. Results Sixty patients were included in this study, 88.3% men with a mean age of 50.4 (± 12.8). 50.0% met criteria for NASH according to the Brunt system. When classifying biopsies using NAS, only 30.0% (18/60) had a score ≥5, while when adding fibrosis, the number of patients with a score ≥5 increased to 33 (55.0%). When evaluating the predictive ability of the two scoring systems, we found that NAS including fibrosis had a higher sensitivity than NAS (86.7% vs. 40.0%) and a lower specificity (76.7% vs. 80.0%). Conclusion In our population with metabolic syndrome and altered liver function tests, about 50-55% had steatohepatitis. There were significant differences between the scoring systems. When using NAS-plus-fibrosis more patients were recognized and the sensitivity increased. Further validation studies are required to evaluate this proposed NAS scoring System. PMID:26602577

  1. Investigation of the Genetic Association between Quantitative Measures of Psychosis and Schizophrenia: A Polygenic Risk Score Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ripke, Stephan; Kahn, Rene S.; Ophoff, Roel A.

    2012-01-01

    The presence of subclinical levels of psychosis in the general population may imply that schizophrenia is the extreme expression of more or less continuously distributed traits in the population. In a previous study, we identified five quantitative measures of schizophrenia (positive, negative, disorganisation, mania, and depression scores). The aim of this study is to examine the association between a direct measure of genetic risk of schizophrenia and the five quantitative measures of psychosis. Estimates of the log of the odds ratios of case/control allelic association tests were obtained from the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium (PGC) (minus our sample) which included genome-wide genotype data of 8,690 schizophrenia cases and 11,831 controls. These data were used to calculate genetic risk scores in 314 schizophrenia cases and 148 controls from the Netherlands for whom genotype data and quantitative symptom scores were available. The genetic risk score of schizophrenia was significantly associated with case-control status (p<0.0001). In the case-control sample, the five psychosis dimensions were found to be significantly associated with genetic risk scores; the correlations ranged between.15 and.27 (all p<.001). However, these correlations were not significant in schizophrenia cases or controls separately. While this study confirms the presence of a genetic risk for schizophrenia as categorical diagnostic trait, we did not find evidence for the genetic risk underlying quantitative schizophrenia symptom dimensions. This does not necessarily imply that a genetic basis is nonexistent, but does suggest that it is distinct from the polygenic risk score for schizophrenia. PMID:22761660

  2. Infectious Disease Risk Associated with Space Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierson, Duane L.

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation opens with views of the shuttle in various stages of preparation for launch, a few moments after launch prior to external fuel tank separation, a few pictures of the earth,and several pictures of astronomical interest. The presentation reviews the factors effecting the risks of infectious disease during space flight, such as the crew, water, food, air, surfaces and payloads and the factors that increase disease risk, the factors affecting the risk of infectious disease during spaceflight, and the environmental factors affecting immunity, such as stress. One factor in space infectious disease is latent viral reactivation, such as herpes. There are comparisons of the incidence of viral reactivation in space, and in other analogous situations (such as bed rest, or isolation). There is discussion of shingles, and the pain and results of treatment. There is a further discussion of the changes in microbial pathogen characteristics, using salmonella as an example of the increased virulence of microbes during spaceflight. A factor involved in the risk of infectious disease is stress.

  3. Are centenarians genetically predisposed to lower disease risk?

    PubMed

    Ruiz, Jonatan R; Fiuza-Luces, Carmen; Buxens, Amaya; Cano-Nieto, Amalia; Gómez-Gallego, Félix; Santiago, Catalina; Rodríguez-Romo, Gabriel; Garatachea, Nuria; Lao, José I; Morán, María; Lucia, Alejandro

    2012-10-01

    Our study purpose was to compare a disease-related polygenic profile that combined a total of 62 genetic variants among (i) people reaching exceptional longevity, i.e., centenarians (n = 54, 100-108 years, 48 women) and (ii) ethnically matched healthy controls (n = 87, 19-43 years, 47 women). We computed a 'global' genotype score (GS) for 62 genetic variants (mutations/polymorphisms) related to cardiometabolic diseases, cancer or exceptional longevity, and also specific GS for main disease categories (cardiometabolic risk and cancer risk, including 36 and 24 genetic variations, respectively) and for exceptional longevity (7 genetic variants). The 'global' GS was similar among groups (centenarians: 31.0 ± 0.6; controls 32.0 ± 0.5, P = 0.263). We observed that the GS for hypertension, cancer (global risk), and other types of cancer was lower in the centenarians group compared with the control group (all P < 0.05), yet the difference became non significant after adjusting for sex. We observed significant between-group differences in the frequency of GSTT1 and GSTM1 (presence/absence) genotypes after adjusting for multiple comparisons. The likelihood of having the GSTT1 low-risk (functional) allele was higher in centenarians (odds ratio [OR] 5.005; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.810-13.839), whereas the likelihood of having the GSTMI low-risk (functional) allele was similar in both groups (OR 1.295; 95% CI, 0.868 -1.931). In conclusion, we found preliminary evidence that Spanish centenarians have a lower genetic predisposition for cancer risk. The wild-type (i.e., functional) genotype of GSTT1, which is associated with lower cancer risk, might be associated with exceptional longevity, yet further studies with larger sample sizes must confirm these findings.

  4. Disclosing genetic risk for coronary heart disease: effects on perceived personal control and genetic counseling satisfaction.

    PubMed

    Robinson, C L; Jouni, H; Kruisselbrink, T M; Austin, E E; Christensen, K D; Green, R C; Kullo, I J

    2016-02-01

    We investigated whether disclosure of coronary heart disease (CHD) genetic risk influences perceived personal control (PPC) and genetic counseling satisfaction (GCS). Participants (n = 207, age: 45-65 years) were randomized to receive estimated 10-year risk of CHD based on a conventional risk score (CRS) with or without a genetic risk score (GRS). Risk estimates were disclosed by a genetic counselor who also reviewed how GRS altered risk in those randomized to CRS+GRS. Each participant subsequently met with a physician and then completed surveys to assess PPC and GCS. Participants who received CRS+GRS had higher PPC than those who received CRS alone although the absolute difference was small (25.2 ± 2.7 vs 24.1 ± 3.8, p = 0.04). A greater proportion of CRS+GRS participants had higher GCS scores (17.3 ± 5.3 vs 15.9 ± 6.3, p = 0.06). In the CRS+GRS group, PPC and GCS scores were not correlated with GRS. Within both groups, PPC and GCS scores were similar in patients with or without family history (p = NS). In conclusion, patients who received their genetic risk of CHD had higher PPC and tended to have higher GCS. Our findings suggest that disclosure of genetic risk of CHD together with conventional risk estimates is appreciated by patients. Whether this results in improved outcomes needs additional investigation.

  5. The emerging molecular architecture of schizophrenia, polygenic risk scores and the clinical implications for GxE research.

    PubMed

    Iyegbe, Conrad; Campbell, Desmond; Butler, Amy; Ajnakina, Olesya; Sham, Pak

    2014-02-01

    Schizophrenia is a devastating mental disorder. The level of risk in the general population is sustained by the persistence of social, environmental and biological factors, as well as their interactions. Socio-environmental risk factors for schizophrenia are well established and robust. The same can belatedly be said of genetic risk factors for the disorder. Recent progress in schizophrenia genetics is primarily fuelled by genome-wide association, which is able to leverage substantial proportions of additional explained variance previously classified as 'missing'. Here, we provide an outline of the emerging genetic landscape of schizophrenia and demonstrate how this knowledge can be turned into a simple empirical measure of genetic risk, known as a polygenic risk score. We highlight the statistical framework used to assess the clinical potential of the new score and finally, draw relevance to and discuss the clinical implications for the study of gene-environment interaction.

  6. Major Risk Factors for Heart Disease: High Blood Cholesterol

    MedlinePlus

    ... Major Risk Factors for Heart Disease High Blood Cholesterol High blood cholesterol is another major risk factor for heart disease ... can do something about. The higher your blood cholesterol level, the greater your risk for developing heart ...

  7. Achutha Menon Centre Diabetes Risk Score: A Type 2 Diabetes Screening Tool for Primary Health Care Providers in Rural India

    PubMed Central

    Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu; Kannan, Srinivasan; Sarma, P. Sankara; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman

    2015-01-01

    The authors aimed to develop a diabetes risk score for primary care providers in rural India. They used the baseline data of 451 participants (15-64 years) of a cohort study in a rural area of Kerala, India. The new risk score with age, family history of diabetes, and waist circumference identified 40.8% for confirmatory testing, had a sensitivity of 81.0%, specificity of 68.4%, positive predictive value of 37.0%, and negative predictive value of 94.0% for an optimal cutoff ≥4 with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.812 (95% confidence interval = 0.765-0.860). The new risk score with 3 simple, easy-to-measure, less time-consuming, and less expensive variables could be suitable for use in primary care settings of rural India. PMID:22865719

  8. Diagnostic value of dilated intercellular space and histopathologic scores in gastroesophageal reflux disease.

    PubMed

    Cui, R; Zhang, H; Zhou, L; Lu, J; Xue, Y; Wang, Y; Yan, X; Lin, L; Lin, S

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the diagnostic value of histopathologic score and the dilated intercellular space (DIS) in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and functional heartburn (FH). Participants with GERD symptoms including reflux esophagitis, non-erosive reflux disease (NERD), Barrett's esophagus (BE), functional heartburn (FH), along with a control group with atypical GERD-like symptom (Sym-C), and asymptomatic healthy volunteers (H-C) were administered GERD questionnaire, and subjected to endoscopy and biopsies, as well as 24-hour pH-impedance monitoring. Biopsies were evaluated using standards from the 2011 Esohisto Project after Hematoxylin-Eosin staining. DIS was measured quantitatively under light microscopy. Among the total of 565 participants with qualified biopsy specimens, the mean DIS of the reflux esophagitis (RE) group was significantly wider compared with the other five groups. DIS in patients with GERD-like symptoms was significantly wider compared with the H-C. No significant differences were observed between NERD and FH. Results from 24-hour pH-impedance monitoring indicated that only the DIS of patients with acid reflux or the amount of acid reflux episodes in patients with DIS was significantly wider compared with patients with nonacid reflux or patients without DIS (P < 0.001). With DIS = 0.9 μm as the cutoff value, the sensitivity and specificity were 62.6% and 54.1%, respectively. Using the total histopathologic score > 3 as the diagnostic criterion, the sensitivity and specificity were 71.7% and 47.4%. DIS is closely associated with GERD and acid reflux. The diagnostic value of histological scores in lower esophagus in GERD is very similar to that of the quantitative measurement of DIS.

  9. Outcome of revascularization in moyamoya disease: Evaluation of a new angiographic scoring system

    PubMed Central

    Sahoo, Siddhartha Shankar; Suri, Ashish; Bansal, Sumit; Devarajan, S. Leve Joseph; Sharma, Bhawani Shankar

    2015-01-01

    Background: Moyamoya disease (MMD) is a chronic progressive cerebrovascular occlusive disease affecting commonly the anterior circle of Willis. Matushima grade inadequately reflects the angiographic changes postrevascularization procedure. Aims: To analyze the clinical and angiographic outcome of revascularization procedures (direct [ST-middle cerebral artery (MCA) anastomosis] and indirect [encephalo-duro-arterio-myo-synangiosis (EDAMS)]) in MMD and validate a new angiographic scoring system. Materials and Methods: Retrospective study included symptomatic patients of MMD who underwent revascularization; both indirect and combined methods between January 2002 and April 2012. Follow-up angiography was done after at least 3 months. We devised a novel scoring system the “angiographic outcome score” (AOS) including reformation of distal MCA and anterior cerebral artery, regression of basal moyamoya vessels, leptomeningeal collaterals and overall perfusion. AOS was applied to the angiograms independently by a neuroradiologist and a neurosurgeon that were blinded toward its preoperative or postoperative status. Results: Totally 33 patients underwent 36 EDAMS and 4 combined procedures (EDAMS + ST-MCA bypass). The mean follow-up was 20 months. None had recurrent transient ischemic attack or fresh infarct. Postoperative AOS was significantly higher than preoperative AOS. The Spearman rho showed positive correlation between Matushima grade and postoperative AOS. Significant regression of basal moyamoya vessels and increase in number of loci of transdural collaterals was seen. Conclusions: EDAMS is a simple yet effective method of revascularization in both pediatric as well as adult age groups. AOS is a simple, precise and easily reproducible scoring system, which reflects the favorable angiographic changes after revascularization. PMID:26425151

  10. Combination of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS) to Improve Outcome Prediction in Cardiac Surgery.

    PubMed

    Doerr, Fabian; Heldwein, Matthias B; Bayer, Ole; Sabashnikov, Anton; Weymann, Alexander; Dohmen, Pascal M; Wahlers, Thorsten; Hekmat, Khosro

    2015-08-17

    BACKGROUND We hypothesized that the combination of a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system would improve the accuracy of mortality prediction and therefore combined the preoperative 'additive EuroSCORE' (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation) with the postoperative 'additive CASUS' (Cardiac Surgery Score) to form the 'modified CASUS'. MATERIAL AND METHODS We included all consecutive adult patients after cardiac surgery during January 2007 and December 2010 in our prospective study. Our single-centre study was conducted in a German general referral university hospital. The original additive and the 'modified CASUS' were tested using calibration and discrimination statistics. We compared the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver characteristic curves (ROC) by DeLong's method and calculated overall correct classification (OCC) values. RESULTS The mean age among the total of 5207 patients was 67.2 ± 10.9 years. Whilst the ICU mortality was 5.9% we observed a mean length of ICU stay of 4.6 ± 7.0 days. Both models demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (mean AUC of 'modified CASUS': ≥ 0.929; 'additive CASUS': ≥ 0.920), with no significant differences according to DeLong. Neither model showed a significant p-value (<0.05) in calibration. We detected the best OCC during the 2nd day (modified: 96.5%; original: 96.6%). CONCLUSIONS Our 'additive' and 'modified' CASUS are reasonable overall predictors. We could not detect any improvement in the accuracy of mortality prediction in cardiac surgery by combining a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system. A separate calculation of the two individual elements is therefore recommended.

  11. Is Walk Score associated with hospital admissions from chronic diseases? Evidence from a cross-sectional study in a high socioeconomic status Australian city-state

    PubMed Central

    Mazumdar, Soumya; Learnihan, Vincent; Cochrane, Thomas; Phung, Hai; O'Connor, Bridget; Davey, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To explore patterns of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT).To ascertain the effect of the neighbourhood built environmental features and especially walkability on health outcomes, specifically for hospital admissions from NCDs. Design A cross-sectional analysis of public hospital episode data (2007–2013). Setting Hospitalisations from the ACT, Australia at very small geographic areas. Participants Secondary data on 75 290 unique hospital episodes representing 39 851 patients who were admitted to ACT hospitals from 2007 to 2013. No restrictions on age, sex or ethnicity. Main exposure measures Geographic Information System derived or compatible measures of general practitioner access, neighbourhood socioeconomic status, alcohol access, exposure to traffic and Walk Score walkability. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations of circulatory diseases, specific endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, respiratory diseases and specific cancers. Results Geographic clusters with significant high and low risks of NCDs were found that displayed an overall geographic pattern of high risk in the outlying suburbs of the territory. Significant relationships between neighbourhood walkability as measured by Walk Score and the likelihood of hospitalisation with a primary diagnosis of myocardial infarction (heart attack) were found. A possible relationship was also found with the likelihood of being hospitalised with 4 major lifestyle-related cancers. Conclusions Our research augments the growing literature underscoring the relationships between the built environment and health outcomes. In addition, it supports the importance of walkable neighbourhoods, as measured by Walk Score, for improved health. PMID:27932340

  12. TOXICOGENOMICS AND HUMAN DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory


    Toxicogenomics and Human Disease Risk Assessment.

    Complete sequencing of human and other genomes, availability of large-scale gene
    expression arrays with ever-increasing numbers of genes displayed, and steady
    improvements in protein expression technology can hav...

  13. Other Possible Heart Disease Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... and anxiety Negative emotions like depression, stress, and anxiety can raise your risk of developing heart disease . Researchers aren't exactly sure why this is. Perhaps these emotions lead to unhealthy ways of coping, such as smoking, drink too much, or eating high-fat foods — ...

  14. Disease activity in Graves' ophthalmopathy: diagnosis with orbital MR imaging and correlation with clinical score.

    PubMed

    Tortora, Fabio; Cirillo, Mario; Ferrara, Marco; Belfiore, Maria Paola; Carella, Carlo; Caranci, Ferdinando; Cirillo, Sossio

    2013-10-01

    In Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) it is important to distinguish acute inflammation at an early stage, responsive to immunosuppressive treatment, from inactive fibrotic end stage disease, unresponsive to the same treatment. The purpose of this study was to identify the most relevant signal intensities on orbital MR imaging with contrast administration both to classify patients according to their clinical activity score (defined by a cut-off value of 3) and to make a prediction of patient's CAS. Such threshold was considered as widely used in literature. Sixteen consecutive patients with a diagnosis of GO in different phases of thyroid disease based on clinical and orbital MR imaging signs, and six normal volunteers were examined. Orbital MR imaging was performed on a 1.5 Tesla MR Unit. MR scans were assessed by an experienced neuroradiologist, blinded to the clinical examinations. We found a statistical correlation between CAS and both STIR and contrast enhanced T1-weighted sequences. There was also a statistically significant correlation between STIR and contrast-enhanced T1 images disclosing the possibility of avoiding the injection of contrast medium. Our study proved that signal intensity values on STIR sequence increase in the inflammatory oedematous phase of disease. We confirmed the correlation between signal intensities on this sequence and CAS, showing an increase in signal intensity proportional to the CAS value. So we validated MRI use to establish the activity phase of disease more sensitively than CAS alone.

  15. Comparison of Three Risk Scores to Predict Outcomes of Severe Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding

    PubMed Central

    Camus, Marine; Jensen, Dennis M.; Ohning, Gordon V.; Kovacs, Thomas O.; Jutabha, Rome; Ghassemi, Kevin A.; Machicado, Gustavo A.; Dulai, Gareth S.; Jensen, Mary Ellen; Gornbein, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    Background & aims Improved medical decisions by using a score at the initial patient triage level may lead to improvements in patient management, outcomes, and resource utilization. There is no validated score for management of lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) unlike for upper GIB. The aim of our study was to compare the accuracies of 3 different prognostic scores (CURE Hemostasis prognosis score, Charlston index and ASA score) for the prediction of 30 day rebleeding, surgery and death in severe LGIB. Methods Data on consecutive patients hospitalized with severe GI bleeding from January 2006 to October 2011 in our two-tertiary academic referral centers were prospectively collected. Sensitivities, specificities, accuracies and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) were computed for three scores for predictions of rebleeding, surgery and mortality at 30 days. Results 235 consecutive patients with LGIB were included between 2006 and 2011. 23% of patients rebled, 6% had surgery, and 7.7% of patients died. The accuracies of each score never reached 70% for predicting rebleeding or surgery in either. The ASA score had a highest accuracy for predicting mortality within 30 days (83.5%) whereas the CURE Hemostasis prognosis score and the Charlson index both had accuracies less than 75% for the prediction of death within 30 days. Conclusions ASA score could be useful to predict death within 30 days. However a new score is still warranted to predict all 30 days outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and death) in LGIB. PMID:25599218

  16. Risk factors for intracranial haemorrhage in patients with pulmonary embolism treated with thrombolytic therapy Development of the PE-CH Score.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, Saurav; Weinberg, Ido; Yeh, Robert W; Chakraborty, Anasua; Sardar, Partha; Weinberg, Mitchell D; Kabrhel, Christopher; Barnes, Geoffrey D; Mukherjee, Debabrata; Kumbhani, Dharam; Bashir, Riyaz; Vaidya, Anjali; Smith, Akaya; Fuchs, Barry; Groeneveld, Peter; Giri, Jay

    2017-01-26

    Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality world-wide, and the use of thrombolytic therapy has been associated with favourable clinical outcomes in certain patient subsets. These potential benefits are counterbalanced by the risk of bleeding complications, the most devastating of which is intracranial haemorrhage (ICH). We retrospectively evaluated 9703 patients from the 2003-2012 nationwide in-patient sample database (NIS) who received thrombolytics for PE. All patients with ICH during the PE hospitalisation were identified and a clinical risk score model was developed utilizing demographics and comorbidities. The dataset was divided 1:1 into derivation and validation cohorts. During 2003-2012, 176/9705 (1.8 %) patients with PE experienced ICH after thrombolytic use. Four independent prognostic factors were identified in a backward logistic regression model, and each was assigned a number of points proportional to its regression coefficient: pre-existing Peripheral vascular disease (1 point), age greater than 65 years (Elderly) (1 point), prior Cerebrovascular accident with residual deficit (5 points), and prior myocardial infarction (Heart attack) (1 point). In the derivation cohort, scores of 0, 1, 2 and ≥ 5 points were associated with ICH risks of 1.2 %, 1.9 %, 2.4 % and 17.8 %, respectively. Rates of ICH were similar in the validation cohort. The C-statistic for the risk score was 0.65 (0.61-0.70) in the derivation cohort and 0.66 (0.60-0.72) in the validation cohort. A novel risk score, derived from simple clinical historical elements was developed to predict ICH in PE patients treated with thrombolytics.

  17. Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

    PubMed

    Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

    2015-11-01

    The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

  18. Chronic disease risk factors among hotel workers

    PubMed Central

    Gawde, Nilesh Chandrakant; Kurlikar, Prashika R.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Non-communicable diseases have emerged as a global health issue. Role of occupation in pathogenesis of non-communicable diseases has not been explored much especially in the hospitality industry. Aims: Objectives of this study include finding risk factor prevalence among hotel workers and studying relationship between occupational group and chronic disease risk factors chiefly high body mass index. Settings and Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted among non-managerial employees from classified hotels in India. Materials and Methods: The study participants self-administered pre-designed pilot-tested questionnaires. Statistical analysis used: The risk factor prevalence rates were expressed as percentages. Chi-square test was used for bi-variate analysis. Overweight was chosen as ‘outcome’ variable of interest and binary multi-logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants. Results: The prevalence rates of tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate physical activity and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 32%, 49%, 24% and 92% respectively among hotel employees. Tobacco use was significantly common among those in food preparation and service, alcohol use among those in food service and security and leisure time physical activity among front office workers. More than two-fifths (42.7%) were overweight. Among the hotel workers, those employed in food preparation and security had higher odds of 1.650 (CI: 1.025 – 2.655) and 3.245 (CI: 1.296 – 8.129) respectively of being overweight. Conclusions: Prevalence of chronic disease risk factors is high among hotel workers. Risk of overweight is significantly high in food preparation and security departments and workplace interventions are necessary to address these risks PMID:27390474

  19. Modeling a Composite Score in Parkinson's Disease Using Item Response Theory.

    PubMed

    Gottipati, Gopichand; Karlsson, Mats O; Plan, Elodie L

    2017-02-28

    In the current work, we present the methodology for development of an Item Response Theory model within a non-linear mixed effects framework to characterize the longitudinal changes of the Movement Disorder Society (sponsored revision) of Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) endpoint in Parkinson's disease (PD). The data were obtained from Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative database and included 163,070 observations up to 48 months from 430 subjects belonging to De Novo PD cohort. The probability of obtaining a score, reported for each of the items in the questionnaire, was modeled as a function of the subject's disability. Initially, a single latent variable model was explored to characterize the disease progression over time. However, based on the understanding of the questionnaire set-up and the results of a residuals-based diagnostic tool, a three latent variable model with a mixture implementation was able to adequately describe longitudinal changes not only at the total score level but also at each individual item level. The linear progression rates obtained for the patient-reported items and the non-sided items were similar, each of which roughly take about 50 months for a typical subject to progress linearly from the baseline by one standard deviation. However for the sided items, it was found that the better side deteriorates quicker than the disabled side. This study presents a framework for analyzing MDS-UPDRS data, which can be adapted to more traditional UPDRS data collected in PD clinical trials and result in more efficient designs and analyses of such studies.

  20. Psychological stress and risk of incident atrial fibrillation in men and women with known atrial fibrillation genetic risk scores.

    PubMed

    Svensson, Thomas; Kitlinski, Mariusz; Engström, Gunnar; Melander, Olle

    2017-02-14

    Psychological stress has been reported as a possible trigger of atrial fibrillation (AF). No studies have investigated whether any association between stress and AF could be modified by genetic susceptibility to AF (AF-genetic risk score (AF-GRS)). 8765 men and 13,543 women from the Malmö Diet Cancer Study, a population-based cohort, were included in the analyses. A variable representing stress was constructed from questions measuring job strain, and from one question assessing non-occupational stress. Cox proportional hazards regression models were adjusted for known covariates of AF. Mean follow-up times and number of recorded incident AF were 14.2 years and 1116 events for men, and 15.1 years and 932 events for women. Among women, high stress was associated with AF in the age adjusted model (hazard ratio [HR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.47) but not following multivariable adjustment (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.95-1.39). Stress was not associated with incident AF in men. AF-GRS was significantly associated with incident AF for both genders. Stress did not interact significantly with genetic susceptibility to AF in men or women. Chronic stress is not associated with long-term incident hospital diagnosed AF. This association does not appear to be modified by genetic susceptibility to AF.

  1. Psychological stress and risk of incident atrial fibrillation in men and women with known atrial fibrillation genetic risk scores

    PubMed Central

    Svensson, Thomas; Kitlinski, Mariusz; Engström, Gunnar; Melander, Olle

    2017-01-01

    Psychological stress has been reported as a possible trigger of atrial fibrillation (AF). No studies have investigated whether any association between stress and AF could be modified by genetic susceptibility to AF (AF-genetic risk score (AF-GRS)). 8765 men and 13,543 women from the Malmö Diet Cancer Study, a population-based cohort, were included in the analyses. A variable representing stress was constructed from questions measuring job strain, and from one question assessing non-occupational stress. Cox proportional hazards regression models were adjusted for known covariates of AF. Mean follow-up times and number of recorded incident AF were 14.2 years and 1116 events for men, and 15.1 years and 932 events for women. Among women, high stress was associated with AF in the age adjusted model (hazard ratio [HR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.47) but not following multivariable adjustment (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.95–1.39). Stress was not associated with incident AF in men. AF-GRS was significantly associated with incident AF for both genders. Stress did not interact significantly with genetic susceptibility to AF in men or women. Chronic stress is not associated with long-term incident hospital diagnosed AF. This association does not appear to be modified by genetic susceptibility to AF. PMID:28195211

  2. Additive composite ABCG2, SLC2A9 and SLC22A12 scores of high-risk alleles with alcohol use modulate gout risk.

    PubMed

    Tu, Hung-Pin; Chung, Chia-Min; Min-Shan Ko, Albert; Lee, Su-Shin; Lai, Han-Ming; Lee, Chien-Hung; Huang, Chung-Ming; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Ko, Ying-Chin

    2016-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of urate transporter genes and alcohol use to the risk of gout/tophi. Eight variants of ABCG2, SLC2A9, SLC22A12, SLC22A11 and SLC17A3 were genotyped in male individuals in a case-control study with 157 gout (33% tophi), 106 asymptomatic hyperuricaemia and 295 control subjects from Taiwan. The multilocus profiles of the genetic risk scores for urate gene variants were used to evaluate the risk of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, gout and tophi. ABCG2 Q141K (T), SLC2A9 rs1014290 (A) and SLC22A12 rs475688 (C) under an additive model and alcohol use independently predicted the risk of gout (respective odds ratio for each factor=2.48, 2.03, 1.95 and 2.48). The additive composite Q141K, rs1014290 and rs475688 scores of high-risk alleles were associated with gout risk (P<0.0001). We observed the supramultiplicative interaction effect of genetic urate scores and alcohol use on gout and tophi risk (P for interaction=0.0452, 0.0033). The synergistic effect of genetic urate score 5-6 and alcohol use indicates that these combined factors correlate with gout and tophi occurrence.

  3. The Norwegian Voice Handicap Index (VHI-N) patient scores are dependent on voice-related disease group.

    PubMed

    Karlsen, Tom; Heimdal, John-Helge; Grieg, Anne Rita Hella; Aarstad, Hans Jørgen

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study is to determine to what extent the Voice Handicap Index-Norwegian (VHI-N) is scored depending on specific laryngological disease. In a multi-center study, 126 healthy subjects and 355 patients with different voice-related diseases answered the VHI-N. The VHI-N scores showed high Cronbach's alpha. Analyses of variance were performed with VHI-N dependent and specific voice-related disease as independent variable, and showed highly significant dependence by group allocation (F(7,461) = 28.0; p < 0.001). When studying post hoc analyses secondary to this ANOVA analysis, we have shown that the control group scored lower than the entire patient groups (all p < 0.001) except the dysplasia group. Aphonic patients scored higher than all the other groups (all p < 0.001) except those with spasmodic dysphonia. The cancer patient group furthermore scored lower than patient groups with recurrent palsy, dysfunctional disease or spasmodic dysphonia (all p < 0.001). In addition, patients with recurrent palsy scored higher than patients with degenerative/inflammatory disease (p < 0.001). No influences of patient age, gender, or smoking were observed in the VHI-N scores. The VHI-N is a psychometrically well-functioning instrument, also at disease-specific levels and discriminates well between health and voice diseases, as well as between different voice-related diseases. The VHI-N may be recommended to be used when monitoring voice-related disease treatment.

  4. Cardiovascular disease and modifiable cardiometabolic risk factors.

    PubMed

    Cannon, Christopher P

    2007-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and many parts of the world. Potentially modifiable risk factors for CVD include tobacco use, physical inactivity, hypertension, elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and a cluster of interrelated metabolic risk factors. Over the last several decades, efforts to prevent or treat CVD risk factors have resulted in significantly lower rates of CVD-related mortality. However, many patients never achieve adequate control of CVD risk factors even when these factors have been identified. In addition, the growing prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) threatens to undermine the improvements in CVD that have been achieved. In the United States, approximately two thirds of adults are overweight or obese, and even modest excess body weight is associated with a significantly increased risk of CVD-related mortality. Lifestyle interventions to promote weight loss reduce the risk of CVD-related illness but are difficult for patients to sustain over long periods of time. The increased incidence of obesity has also contributed to significant increases in the prevalence of other important CVD risk factors, including hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and type 2 DM. Pharmacologic therapies are currently available to address individual CVD risk factors, and others are being evaluated, including endocannabinoid receptor antagonists, inhibitors of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor subtypes alpha and gamma, and several agents that modulate the activity of glucagon-like peptide-1. The new agents have the potential to significantly improve several CVD risk factors with a single medication and may provide clinicians with several new strategies to reduce the long-term risk of CVD.

  5. Outcome Predictors in Prosthetic Joint Infections--Validation of a risk stratification score for Prosthetic Joint Infections in 120 cases.

    PubMed

    Wimmer, Matthias D; Randau, Thomas M; Friedrich, Max J; Ploeger, Milena M; Schmolder, Jan; Strauss, Andreas C; Pennekamp, Peter H; Vavken, Patrick; Gravius, Sascha

    2016-03-01

    Prosthetic joint infections are a major challenge in total joint arthroplasty, especially in times of accumulating drug resistancies. Even though predictive risk classifications are a widely accepted tool to define a suitable treatment protocol a classification is still missing considering the difficulty in treating the -causative pathogen antibiotically. In this study, we present and evaluate a new predictive risk stratification for prosthetic joint infections in 120 cases, treated with a two-stage exchange. Treatment outcomes in 120 patients with proven prosthetic joint infections in hip and knee prostheses were regressed on time of infection, systemic risk factors, local risk factors and the difficulty in treating the causing pathogen. The main outcome variable was "definitely free of infection" after two years as published. Age, gender, and BMI were included as covariables and analyzed in a logistic regression model. 66 male and 54 female patients, with a mean age at surgery of 68.3 years±12.0 and a mean BMI of 26.05±6.21 were included in our survey and followed for 29.0±11.3 months. We found a significant association (p<0.001) between our score and the outcome parameters evaluated. Age, gender and BMI did not show a significant association with the outcome. These results show that our score is an independent and reliable predictor for the cure rate in prosthetic joint infections in hip and knee prostheses treated within a two-stage exchange protocol. Our score illustrates, that there is a statistically significant, sizable decrease in cure rate with an increase in score. In patients with prosthetic joint infections the validation of a risk score may help to identify patients with local and systemic risk factors or with infectious organisms identified as "difficult to treat" prior to the treatment or the decision about the treatment concept. Thus, appropriate extra care should be considered and provided.

  6. Environmental risk factors for heart disease.

    PubMed

    O'Toole, Timothy E; Conklin, Daniel J; Bhatnagar, Aruni

    2008-01-01

    In this review, we discuss current evidence linking environmental pollutants to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Extensive evidence indicates that environmental factors contribute to CVD risk, incidence, and severity. Migrant studies show that changes in the environment could substantially alter CVD risk in a genetically stable population. Additionally, CVD risk is affected by changes in nutritional and lifestyle choices. Recent studies in the field of environmental cardiology suggest that environmental toxins also influence CVD. Exposure to tobacco smoke is paradigmatic of such environmental risk and is strongly and positively associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In animal models of exposure, tobacco smoke induces endothelial dysfunction and prothrombotic responses and exacerbates atherogenesis and myocardial ischemic injury. Similar mechanism may be engaged by other pollutants or food constituents. Several large population-based studies indicate that exposure to fine or ultrafine particulate air pollution increases CVD morbidity and mortality, and the plausibility of this association is supported by data from animal studies. Exposure to other chemicals such as polyaromatic hydrocarbons, aldehydes, and metals has also been reported to elevate CVD risk by affecting atherogenesis, thrombosis, or blood pressure regulation. Maternal exposure to drugs, toxins, and infection has been linked with cardiac birth defects and premature CVD in later life. Collectively, the data support the notion that chronic environmental stress is an important determinant of CVD risk. Further work is required to assess the magnitude of this risk fully and to delineate specific mechanisms by which environmental toxins affect CVD.

  7. A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiangtong; Chen, Zhenghong; Fine, Jason Peter; Liu, Long; Wang, Anxin; Guo, Jin; Tao, Lixin; Mahara, Gehendra; Yang, Kun; Zhang, Jie; Tian, Sijia; Li, Haibin; Liu, Kuo; Luo, Yanxia; Zhang, Feng; Tang, Zhe; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72–0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69–0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65. PMID:27849048

  8. Spinal cord injury is related to an increased risk of multiple sclerosis: a population-based, propensity score-matched, longitudinal follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chia-Wei; Huang, Ya-Ping; Pan, Shin-Liang

    2015-05-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS). Trauma to the CNS has been postulated to play a role in triggering CNS autoimmune disease. Although the association between traumatic brain injury and MS has been suggested in previous studies, epidemiological data on the association between spinal cord injury (SCI) and MS is still lacking. The aim of the present population-based, propensity score-matched, longitudinal follow-up study was therefore to investigate whether patients with SCI were at a higher risk of developing MS. A total of 11,913 subjects ages between 20 and 90 years with at least two ambulatory visits with the principal diagnosis of SCI in 2001 were enrolled in the SCI group. We used a logistic regression model that included age, sex, pre-existing comorbidities, and socioeconomic status as covariates to compute the propensity score. The non-SCI group consisted of 59,565 propensity score-matched, randomly sampled subjects without SCI. Stratified Cox proportional hazard regression with patients matched by propensity score was used to estimate the effect of SCI on the risk of developing subsequent MS. During follow-up, five subjects in the SCI group and four in the non-SCI group developed MS. The incidence rates of MS were 17.60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.71-41.0) per 100,000 person-years in the SCI group and 2.82 (95% CI, 0.77-7.22) per 100,000 person-years in the non-SCI group. Compared with the non-SCI group, the hazard ratio of MS for the SCI group was 8.33 (95% CI, 1.99-34.87, p=0.0037). Our study therefore shows that patients with SCI have an increased risk of developing MS.

  9. Susceptibility and risk factors in periodontal disease.

    PubMed

    Kinane, D F

    2000-10-01

    Epidemiological studies demonstrate a high prevalence of advanced destruction but also that relatively few individuals in each age group account for most of the advanced periodontal disease. The available data suggest that three quarters of advanced periodontal disease could be prevented by targeting an effective preventive strategy on the 28% of individuals especially at risk. Questions remain regarding: 1) whether an acceptable cost-effective preventive strategy can be devised; and 2) whether it is possible to establish a simple method of identifying the 'at risk' group. The various risk factors are numerous and include systemic diseases, smoking, drug therapy, hormonal disturbances and genetic factors as well as the more mundane factors such as plaque control and socio-economic and education and attitude factors. Aside from these factors, many patients present with periodontal disease and have no discernible predisposition other than possibly genetic, for which we can not currently test, and for the vast majority of patients there would appear to be no other alternative to periodic thorough examination for all patients, early treatment of all periodontal lesions and appropriate dental health education.

  10. Water chemistry and cardiovascular disease risk

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, A.P.; Zeighami, E.A.

    1985-01-01

    The evidence linking cardiovascular disease risk and water quality parameters was weighed and analyzed to identify major gaps in understanding reasons for the regional differences in cardiovascular disease mortality in the United States. Epidemiologic studies evaluating occupational and public health exposure to nitrates, carbon monoxide, carbon disulfide, fibrogenic dusts, heavy metals and trace elements, chlorides, and hydro- and fluorocarbons were analyzed. Intake of cholesterol, calcium, and magnesium from food items, cooking water enhancement, and drinking water were also appraised. Based on the current state of knowledge, it is our judgment that the drinking water characteristics of highest priority from the standpoint of cardiovascular disease risks are calcium/magnesium content and chlorine treatment. The potential importance of cadmium, lead, nitrate(s), and chloride/sodium concentrations also needs to be considered. We present working hypotheses to evaluate the role(s) of these parameters and a discussion of variables that should be considered in any study design addressing the association between cardiovascular disease risk and water quality. Important variables are sample size, biological endpoint events (mortality, incidence, clinical determination), population characteristics, drinking water parameters, and dietary intake estimates. 207 references, 6 figures, 17 tables.

  11. A Genetics-based Biomarker Risk Algorithm for Predicting Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Lutz, Michael W.; Sundseth, Scott S.; Burns, Daniel K.; Saunders, Ann M.; Hayden, Kathleen M.; Burke, James R.; Welsh-Bohmer, Kathleen A.; Roses, Allen D.

    2016-01-01

    Background A straightforward, reproducible blood-based test that predicts age dependent risk of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) could be used as an enrichment tool for clinical development of therapies. This study evaluated the prognostic performance of a genetics-based biomarker risk algorithm (GBRA) established on a combination of Apolipoprotein E (APOE)/Translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 homolog (TOMM40) genotypes and age, then compare it to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers, neuroimaging and neurocognitive tests using data from two independent AD cohorts. Methods The GBRA was developed using data from the prospective Bryan-ADRC study (n=407; 86 conversion events (mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or late onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD)). The performance of the algorithm was tested using data from the ADNI study (n=660; 457 individuals categorized as MCI or LOAD). Results The positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the GBRA are in the range of 70–80%. The relatively high odds ratio (approximately 3–5) and significant net reclassification index (NRI) scores comparing the GBRA to a version based on APOE and age alone support the value of the GBRA in risk prediction for MCI due to LOAD. Performance of the GBRA compares favorably with CSF and imaging (fMRI) biomarkers. In addition, the GBRA “high” and “low” AD-risk categorizations correlated well with pathological CSF biomarker levels, PET amyloid burden and neurocognitive scores. Conclusions Unlike dynamic markers (i.e., imaging, protein or lipid markers) that may be influenced by factors unrelated to disease, genomic DNA is easily collected, stable, and the technical methods for measurement are robust, inexpensive, and widely available. The performance characteristics of the GBRA support its use as a pharmacogenetic enrichment tool for LOAD delay of onset clinical trials, and merits further evaluation for its clinical utility in evaluating therapeutic

  12. Prognostic Utility of Calcium Scoring as an Adjunct to Stress Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy in End-Stage Renal Disease.

    PubMed

    Moody, William E; Lin, Erica L S; Stoodley, Matthew; McNulty, David; Thomson, Louise E; Berman, Daniel S; Edwards, Nicola C; Holloway, Benjamin; Ferro, Charles J; Townend, Jonathan N; Steeds, Richard P

    2016-05-01

    Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a strong predictor of adverse cardiovascular events in the general population. Recent data confirm the prognostic utility of single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) imaging in end-stage renal disease, but whether performing CACS as part of hybrid imaging improves risk prediction in this population is unclear. Consecutive patients (n = 284) were identified after referral to a university hospital for cardiovascular risk stratification in assessment for renal transplantation. Participants underwent technetium-99m SPECT imaging after exercise or standard adenosine stress in those unable to achieve 85% maximal heart rate; multislice CACS was also performed (Siemens Symbia T16, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany). Subjects with known coronary artery disease (n = 88) and those who underwent early revascularization (n = 2) were excluded. The primary outcome was a composite of death or first myocardial infarction. An abnormal SPECT perfusion result was seen in 22% (43 of 194) of subjects, whereas 45% (87 of 194) had at least moderate CACS (>100 U). The frequency of abnormal perfusion (summed stress score ≥4) increased with increasing CACS severity (p = 0.049). There were a total of 15 events (8 deaths, and 7 myocardial infarctions) after a median duration of 18 months (maximum follow-up 3.4 years). Univariate analysis showed diabetes mellitus (Hazard ratio [HR] 3.30, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.54; p = 0.028), abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 5.32, 95% CI 1.84 to 15.35; p = 0.002), and moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.11 to 11.35; p = 0.032) were all associated with the primary outcome. In a multivariate model, abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 4.18, 95% CI 1.43 to 12.27; p = 0.009), but not moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 2.50, 95% CI 0.76 to 8.20; p = 0.130), independently predicted all-cause death or myocardial infarction. The prognostic value of CACS was not incremental to clinical and SPECT perfusion data (global chi-square change

  13. Predictive and Incremental Validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide Scores with Male and Female Jail Inmates

    PubMed Central

    Hastings, Mark E.; Krishnan, Shilpa; Tangney, June P.; Stuewig, Jeffrey

    2010-01-01

    The present study examines the predictive and incremental validity of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores in a sample of 328 male and 145 female jail inmates held on felony charges. Significant gender differences were observed in VRAG item and total score means, as well as in correlations between the VRAG and concurrent measures of aggression. VRAG scores significantly predicted institutional misconduct during incarceration and recidivism in the first year post-release for male inmates, but not for female inmates. In terms of incremental validity, VRAG scores predicted institutional misconduct and recidivism beyond that accounted for by psychopathy for male inmates, but not for female inmates. Implications for clinical practice and future research are discussed. PMID:21381844

  14. Combination of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS) to Improve Outcome Prediction in Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Doerr, Fabian; Heldwein, Matthias B.; Bayer, Ole; Sabashnikov, Anton; Weymann, Alexander; Dohmen, Pascal M.; Wahlers, Thorsten; Hekmat, Khosro

    2015-01-01

    Background We hypothesized that the combination of a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system would improve the accuracy of mortality prediction and therefore combined the preoperative ‘additive EuroSCORE‘ (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation) with the postoperative ‘additive CASUS’ (Cardiac Surgery Score) to form the ‘modified CASUS’. Material/Methods We included all consecutive adult patients after cardiac surgery during January 2007 and December 2010 in our prospective study. Our single-centre study was conducted in a German general referral university hospital. The original additive and the ‘modified CASUS’ were tested using calibration and discrimination statistics. We compared the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver characteristic curves (ROC) by DeLong’s method and calculated overall correct classification (OCC) values. Results The mean age among the total of 5207 patients was 67.2±10.9 years. Whilst the ICU mortality was 5.9% we observed a mean length of ICU stay of 4.6±7.0 days. Both models demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (mean AUC of ‘modified CASUS’: ≥0.929; ‘additive CASUS’: ≥0.920), with no significant differences according to DeLong. Neither model showed a significant p-value (<0.05) in calibration. We detected the best OCC during the 2nd day (modified: 96.5%; original: 96.6%). Conclusions Our ‘additive’ and ‘modified’ CASUS are reasonable overall predictors. We could not detect any improvement in the accuracy of mortality prediction in cardiac surgery by combining a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system. A separate calculation of the two individual elements is therefore recommended. PMID:26279053

  15. Periodontal disease increases risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    PubMed

    Ledić, Karla; Marinković, Sonja; Puhar, Ivan; Spalj, Stjepan; Popović-Grle, Sanja; Ivić-Kardum, Marija; Samarzija, Miroslav; Plancak, Darije

    2013-09-01

    The aim of this study was to explore whether a periodontal disease could be a risk indicator for a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The examined group comprised 93 patients with COPD (mean age 65.8 years). The control group comprised 43 systemically healthy individuals (mean age 62.1 years). Respiratory and periodontal conditions were examined in both groups. COPB subjects had significantly worse periodontal conditions than controls (p < 0.05) with regard to each parameter of periodontal condition, except for gingival inflammation. COPD patients had higher Plaque Index than control patients (82.84 +/- 22.81 vs. 57.15 +/- 26.96; p < 0.001), higher periodontal depth (3.02 +/- 0.92 vs. 2.57 +/- 0.79 mm; p = 0.007), higher gingival recession (1.97 +/- 1.09 vs. 0.91 +/- 0.79 mm; p < 0.001), and higher mean clinical attachment loss (CAL) (4.12 +/- 1.74 vs. 2.91 +/- 1.27 mm; p < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression model, after controlling for other risk indicators, showed that periodontal disease, presented as CAL > or = 4 mm at > or = 60% sites, was associated with odds ratio of 3.2 (95% CI 1.0-9.8) for the COPB group. Data suggest that periodontal disease could be a risk indicator for COPD.

  16. Ideal cardiovascular health score and incident end-stage renal disease in a community-based longitudinal cohort study: the Kailuan Study

    PubMed Central

    Han, Quan Le; Wu, Shou Ling; Liu, Xiao Xue; An, Sha Sha; Wu, Yun Tao; Gao, Jing Sheng; Chen, Shuo Hua; Liu, Xiao Kun; Zhang, Qi; Mao, Rui Ying; Shang, Xiao Ming

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To investigate an association between ideal cardiovascular health metrics (CVH) and the risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Setting Community of Kailuan in Tangshan/China. Participants We examined in a community-based longitudinal cohort study 91 443 participants without history of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline in 2006–2007, with a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) ≥15 mL/min at baseline, and who participated in at least 1 of 3 follow-up examinations in 2008–2009, 2010–2011 and 2012–2013. Interventions CVH was measured by 7 key health factors (smoking, body mass index, physical activity, healthy dietary score, total cholesterol blood concentration, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose) each of which ranged between ‘ideal’ (2) and ‘poor’ (0). With a maximal CVH score of 14, the study participants were divided into categories of <5, 5–9 and 10–14 points. Primary and secondary outcome measures CHV, incidence of ESRD. Results Incidence of ESRD ranged from 7.06‰ in the lowest CVH category to 2.34‰ in the highest CVH category. After adjusting for age, sex, educational level, income, alcohol consumption and GFR, the lowest CVH category as compared with the highest CVH category had a significantly higher risk of incident ESRD (adjusted HR 2.87; 95% CI 1.53 to 5.39). For every decrease in group number of the cum-CVH score, the risk of ESRD increased by 20% (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.28). The effect was consistent across sex and all age groups. Conclusions A low CVH score significantly increased the risk of incident ESRD. Risk factors for cardiovascular events may also be associated with an increased risk for kidney failure. PMID:27899399

  17. A Clinical Risk Score to Improve the Diagnosis of Tachycardia-Induced Cardiomyopathy in Childhood.

    PubMed

    Moore, Jeremy P; Wang, Shuo; Albers, Erin L; Salerno, Jack C; Stephenson, Elizabeth A; Shah, Maully J; Pflaumer, Andreas; Czosek, Richard J; Garnreiter, Jason M; Collins, Kathryn; Papez, Andrew L; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Cain, Nicole B; Kannankeril, Prince J; Perry, James C; Mandapati, Ravi; Silva, Jennifer N A; Balaji, Seshadri; Shannon, Kevin M

    2016-10-01

    Tachycardia-induced cardiomyopathy (TIC) is a treatable cause of heart failure in children, but there is little information as to which clinical variables best discriminate TIC from other forms of cardiomyopathy. TIC cases with dilated cardiomyopathy (DC) from 16 participating centers were identified and compared with controls with other forms of DC. Presenting clinical, echocardiographic, and electrocardiographic characteristics were collected. Heart rate (HR) percentile was defined as HR/median HR for age, and PR index as the PR/RR interval. P-wave morphology (PWM) was defined as possible sinus or nonsinus based on a predefined algorithm. Eighty TIC cases and 135 controls were identified. Cases demonstrated lower LV end-diastolic diameter and LV end-systolic diameter than DC controls (4.3 vs 6.5, p <0.001; 7.4 vs 10.9, p <0.001) and were less likely to receive inotropic medication at presentation (p <0.001 for both). Multivariable logistic regression identified HR percentile (OR 2.1 per 10% increase, CI 1.3 to 4.6; p = 0.014), PR index (OR 1.2, CI 1.1 to 1.4; p = 0.004), and nonsinus PWM (OR 104.9, CI 15.2 to 1,659.8; p <0.001) as predictive of TIC status. A risk score using HR percentile >130%, PR index >30%, and nonsinus PWM was associated with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 87% for the diagnosis of TIC. Model training and validation area under the curves were similar at 0.97 and 0.94, respectively. In conclusion, pediatric TIC may be accurately discriminated from other forms of DC using simple electrocardiographic parameters. This may allow for rapid diagnosis and early treatment of this condition.

  18. Spatial forecasting of disease risk and uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    De Cola, L.

    2002-01-01

    Because maps typically represent the value of a single variable over 2-dimensional space, cartographers must simplify the display of multiscale complexity, temporal dynamics, and underlying uncertainty. A choropleth disease risk map based on data for polygonal regions might depict incidence (cases per 100,000 people) within each polygon for a year but ignore the uncertainty that results from finer-scale variation, generalization, misreporting, small numbers, and future unknowns. In response to such limitations, this paper reports on the bivariate mapping of data "quantity" and "quality" of Lyme disease forecasts for states of the United States. Historical state data for 1990-2000 are used in an autoregressive model to forecast 2001-2010 disease incidence and a probability index of confidence, each of which is then kriged to provide two spatial grids representing continuous values over the nation. A single bivariate map is produced from the combination of the incidence grid (using a blue-to-red hue spectrum), and a probabilistic confidence grid (used to control the saturation of the hue at each grid cell). The resultant maps are easily interpretable, and the approach may be applied to such problems as detecting unusual disease occurences, visualizing past and future incidence, and assembling a consistent regional disease atlas showing patterns of forecasted risks in light of probabilistic confidence.

  19. PREDICT‐PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease

    PubMed Central

    Noyce, Alastair J.; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P.; Adams‐Carr, Kerala L.; Mencacci, Niccolo E.; Hawkes, Christopher H.; Masters, Joseph M.; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J.

    2017-01-01

    Background A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). Objective To test an online, evidence‐based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Methods Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard‐tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine‐rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD (“intermediate markers”), including smell loss, rapid eye movement–sleep behavior disorder, and finger‐tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. Results A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow‐up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow‐up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. Conclusions The online PREDICT‐PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement

  20. Neighborhood socioeconomic status and coronary heart disease risk prediction in a nationally representative sample

    PubMed Central

    Pollack, Craig E.; Slaughter, Mary E.; Griffin, Beth A.; Dubowitz, Tamara; Bird, Chloe E.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Test the association between coronary heart disease (CHD) risk scores and neighborhood socioeconomic status (NSES) in a US nationally-representative sample and describe whether any association varies by gender and race/ethnicity. Study Design Cross-sectional study Methods We use Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 1999 to 2004 linked with Census tract data. Multivariable regression models and propensity score adjusted models are employed to test the association between NSES and 10-year risk of CHD based on the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), adjusting for individual-level characteristics. Results An individual living in a neighborhood at the 75th percentile of NSES (high NSES) has, on average, a 10-year CHD risk that is 0.16 percentage points lower (95% Confidence Interval 0.16, 0.17) than a similar person residing in a neighborhood at the 25th percentile of NSES (low NSES). Race/ethnicity and gender were found to significantly modify the association between NSES on CHD risk: the association is larger in men than women and in whites than minorities. Propensity score models showed findings on the main effects of NSES were robust to self-selection into neighborhoods. Similar results were observed between NSES and risk of cardiovascular disease events. Conclusions NSES is significantly associated with CHD risk, and the relationship varies by gender and race/ethnicity. PMID:23083844

  1. Animal migration and infectious disease risk.

    PubMed

    Altizer, Sonia; Bartel, Rebecca; Han, Barbara A

    2011-01-21

    Animal migrations are often spectacular, and migratory species harbor zoonotic pathogens of importance to humans. Animal migrations are expected to enhance the global spread of pathogens and facilitate cross-species transmission. This does happen, but new research has also shown that migration allows hosts to escape from infected habitats, reduces disease levels when infected animals do not migrate successfully, and may lead to the evolution of less-virulent pathogens. Migratory demands can also reduce immune function, with consequences for host susceptibility and mortality. Studies of pathogen dynamics in migratory species and how these will respond to global change are urgently needed to predict future disease risks for wildlife and humans alike.

  2. Polygenic Risk Score Identifies Subgroup with Higher Burden of Atherosclerosis and Greater Relative Benefit from Statin Therapy in the Primary Prevention Setting.

    PubMed

    Natarajan, Pradeep; Young, Robin; Stitziel, Nathan O; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Baber, Usman; Mehran, Roxana; Sartori, Samantha; Fuster, Valentin; Reilly, Dermot F; Butterworth, Adam S; Rader, Daniel J; Ford, Ian; Sattar, Naveed; Kathiresan, Sekar

    2017-02-21

    Background -Relative risk reduction with statin therapy has been consistent across nearly all subgroups studied to date. However, in analyses of two randomized controlled primary prevention trials (ASCOT and JUPITER), statin therapy led to a greater relative risk reduction among a subgroup at high genetic risk. Here, we sought to confirm this observation in a third primary prevention randomized controlled trial. Additionally, we assessed if those at high genetic risk had a greater burden of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. Methods -We studied participants from a randomized controlled trial of primary prevention with statin therapy (WOSCOPS, n=4,910) and two observational cohort studies (CARDIA and BioImage, n=1,154 and 4,392). For each participant, we calculated a polygenic risk score (PRS) derived from up to 57 common DNA sequence variants previously associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We compared the relative efficacy of statin therapy in those at high genetic risk (top quintile of PRS) versus all others (WOSCOP)S as well as the association between the PRS and coronary artery calcification (CARDIA) and carotid artery plaque burden (BioImage). Results -Among WOSCOPS trial participants at high genetic risk, statin therapy was associated with a relative risk reduction of 44% (95% CI, 22%-60%; P < 0.001) whereas in all others, relative risk reduction was 24% (95% CI 8%-37%; P = 0.004) despite similar LDL cholesterol lowering. In a study-level meta-analysis across the WOSCOPS, ASCOT, and JUPITER primary prevention, relative risk reduction in those at high genetic risk was 46% versus 26% in all others (P for heterogeneity = 0.05). Across all three studies, the absolute risk reduction with statin therapy was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.0%-5.1%) among those in the high genetic risk group and was 1.3% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.9%) in all others. Each standard deviation increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.32-fold (95% CI, 1.04-1.68) greater likelihood of

  3. Risk of cardiovascular disease in inflammatory bowel disease

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Ping; Jia, Fangyuan; Zhang, Bao; Zhang, Peiying

    2017-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) can arise because of chronic inflammation and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is one such disease where the risk for CVD and eventual heart failure is increased considerably. The incidence of IBD, which refers to both ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, has been on the increase in several countries and is a potential risk factor for CVD. Although IBD can potentially cause venous thromboembolism, its significance in arterial stiffening, atherosclerosis, ischemic heart disease and myocardial infarction is only being realized now and it is currently under debate. However, several studies with large groups of patients have demonstrated the association of IBD with heart disease. It has been suggested that systemic inflammation as observed in IBD patients leads to oxidative stress and elevated levels of inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), which lead to phenotypic changes in smooth muscle cells and sets into motion a series of events that culminate in atherosclerosis and CVD. Besides the endogenous factors and cytokines, it has been suggested that due to the compromised intestinal mucosal barrier, endotoxins and bacterial lipopolysaccharides produced by intestinal microflora can enter into circulation and activate inflammatory responses that lead to atherosclerosis. Therapeutic management of IBD-associated heart diseases cannot be achieved with simple anti-inflammatory drugs such as corticosteroids and anti-TNF-α antibodies. Treatment with existing medications for CVDs, aspirin, platelet aggregation inhibitors and statins is found to be acceptable and safe. Nevertheless, further research is needed to assess their efficacy in IBD patients suffering from heart disease. PMID:28352306

  4. The PRONE score: an algorithm for predicting doctors’ risks of formal patient complaints using routinely collected administrative data

    PubMed Central

    Spittal, Matthew J; Bismark, Marie M; Studdert, David M

    2015-01-01

    Background Medicolegal agencies—such as malpractice insurers, medical boards and complaints bodies—are mostly passive regulators; they react to episodes of substandard care, rather than intervening to prevent them. At least part of the explanation for this reactive role lies in the widely recognised difficulty of making robust predictions about medicolegal risk at the individual clinician level. We aimed to develop a simple, reliable scoring system for predicting Australian doctors’ risks of becoming the subject of repeated patient complaints. Methods Using routinely collected administrative data, we constructed a national sample of 13 849 formal complaints against 8424 doctors. The complaints were lodged by patients with state health service commissions in Australia over a 12-year period. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of subsequent complaints, defined as another complaint occurring within 2 years of an index complaint. Model estimates were then used to derive a simple predictive algorithm, designed for application at the doctor level. Results The PRONE (Predicted Risk Of New Event) score is a 22-point scoring system that indicates a doctor's future complaint risk based on four variables: a doctor's specialty and sex, the number of previous complaints and the time since the last complaint. The PRONE score performed well in predicting subsequent complaints, exhibiting strong validity and reliability and reasonable goodness of fit (c-statistic=0.70). Conclusions The PRONE score appears to be a valid method for assessing individual doctors’ risks of attracting recurrent complaints. Regulators could harness such information to target quality improvement interventions, and prevent substandard care and patient dissatisfaction. The approach we describe should be replicable in other agencies that handle large numbers of patient complaints or malpractice claims. PMID:25855664

  5. A sonographic scoring system to assess the risk of thyroid malignancy.

    PubMed

    Pathirana, A A; Bandara, K G M W; Faleel, M A; Kuruppumullage, S D; Solangarachchi, N; Rupasinghe, R D; Karunaratne, N P N; Ranasinghe, D D; Epa, W A; Thusyanthan, V

    2016-03-01

    Prediction of thyroid malignancy with fine needle aspiration cytology or individual ultrasound characteristics has several limitations. This study evaluates the usefulness of a combination of ultrasound characteristics in predicting malignancy in patients with thyroid nodules. We assessed 189 thyroid nodules using ultrasonography and histology. Each nodule was assigned a score based on ultrasonographic characteristics. This score was compared with histology to identify ability to predict malignancy. There were 28 malignant nodules. The scoring system was appropriate for clinical use, obtaining an area under ROC curve of 0.822 [p< 0.0001] 95% confidence. FNAC of nodules with a score of more than 4 can be recommended (100% sensitivity). Nodules with a score less than 8 can be offered total thyroidectomy when FNAC is inconclusive (97.5% sensitivity). A combination of ultrasonographic criteria increase the accuracy of predicting malignancy in thyroid nodules.

  6. Significance of a positive family history for coronary heart disease in patients with a zero coronary artery calcium score (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

    PubMed

    Cohen, Randy; Budoff, Matthew; McClelland, Robyn L; Sillau, Stefan; Burke, Gregory; Blaha, Michael; Szklo, Moyses; Uretsky, Seth; Rozanski, Alan; Shea, Steven

    2014-10-15

    Although a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0 is associated with a very low 10-year risk for cardiac events, this risk is nonzero. Subjects with a family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been associated with more subclinical atherosclerosis than subjects without a family history of CHD. The purpose of this study was to assess the significance of a family history for CHD in subjects with a CAC score of 0. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort includes 6,814 participants free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline. Positive family history was defined as reporting a parent, sibling, or child who had a heart attack. Time to incident CHD or CVD event was modeled using the multivariable Cox regression; 3,185 subjects were identified from the original Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort as having a baseline CAC score of 0 (mean age 58 years, 37% men). Over a median follow-up of 10 years, 101 participants (3.2%) had CVD events and 56 (1.8%) had CHD events. In age- and gender-adjusted analyses, a family history of CHD was associated with an ∼70% increase in CVD (hazard ratio 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 2.56) and CHD (hazard ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.91) events. CVD events remained significant after further adjustment for ethnicity, risk factors, and baseline medication use. In conclusion, asymptomatic subjects with a 0 CAC score and a positive family history of CHD are at increased risk for CVD and CHD events compared with those without a family history of CHD, although absolute event rates remain low.

  7. Dopamine and serotonin genetic risk scores predicting substance and nicotine use in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    PubMed

    Groenman, Annabeth P; Greven, Corina U; van Donkelaar, Marjolein M J; Schellekens, Arnt; van Hulzen, Kimm J E; Rommelse, Nanda; Hartman, Catharina A; Hoekstra, Pieter J; Luman, Marjolein; Franke, Barbara; Faraone, Stephen V; Oosterlaan, Jaap; Buitelaar, Jan K

    2016-07-01

    Individuals with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at increased risk of developing substance use disorders (SUDs) and nicotine dependence. The co-occurrence of ADHD and SUDs/nicotine dependence may in part be mediated by shared genetic liability. Several neurobiological pathways have been implicated in both ADHD and SUDs, including dopamine and serotonin pathways. We hypothesized that variations in dopamine and serotonin neurotransmission genes were involved in the genetic liability to develop SUDs/nicotine dependence in ADHD. The current study included participants with ADHD (n = 280) who were originally part of the Dutch International Multicenter ADHD Genetics study. Participants were aged 5-15 years and attending outpatient clinics at enrollment in the study. Diagnoses of ADHD, SUDs, nicotine dependence, age of first nicotine and substance use, and alcohol use severity were based on semi-structured interviews and questionnaires. Genetic risk scores were created for both serotonergic and dopaminergic risk genes previously shown to be associated with ADHD and SUDs and/or nicotine dependence. The serotonin genetic risk score significantly predicted alcohol use severity. No significant serotonin × dopamine risk score or effect of stimulant medication was found. The current study adds to the literature by providing insight into genetic underpinnings of the co-morbidity of ADHD and SUDs. While the focus of the literature so far has been mostly on dopamine, our study suggests that serotonin may also play a role in the relationship between these disorders.

  8. Development and evaluation of a risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus among middle-aged Chinese rural population based on the RuralDiab Study

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Hao; Li, Yuqian; Liu, Xiaotian; Xu, Fei; Li, Linlin; Yang, Kaili; Qian, Xinling; Liu, Ruihua; Bie, Ronghai; Wang, Chongjian

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to establish a simple and effective risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in middle-aged rural Chinese. Total of 5453 participants aged 30–59 years from the Rural Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (RuralDiab) study were recruited for establishing the RuralDiab risk score by using logistic regression analysis. The RuralDiab risk score was validated in a prospective study from Henan Province of China, and compared with previous risk scores by using the receiver-operating characteristics cure. Ultimately, sex, age, family history of diabetes, physical activity, waist circumference, history of dyslipidemia, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index were included in the RuralDiab risk score (range from 0 to 36), and the optimal cutoff value was 17 with 67.9% sensitivity and 67.8% specificity. The area under the cures (AUC) of the RuralDiab risk score was 0.723(95%CI: 0.710–0.735) for T2DM in validation population, which was significant higher than the American Diabetes Association score (AUC: 0.636), the Inter99 score (AUC: 0.669), the Oman risk score (AUC: 0.675). The RuralDiab risk score was established and demonstrated an appropriate performance for predicting T2DM in middle-aged Chinese rural population. Further studies for validation should be implemented in different populations. PMID:28209984

  9. Neurocognitive abilities in the general population and composite genetic risk scores for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Joanna; Hamshere, Marian L; Stergiakouli, Evangelia; O'Donovan, Michael C; Thapar, Anita

    2015-01-01

    Background The genetic architecture of ADHD is complex, with rare and common variants involved. Common genetic variants (as indexed by a composite risk score) associated with clinical ADHD significantly predict ADHD and autistic-like behavioural traits in children from the general population, suggesting that ADHD lies at the extreme of normal trait variation. ADHD and other neurodevelopmental disorders share neurocognitive difficulties in several domains (e.g. impaired cognitive ability and executive functions). We hypothesised that ADHD composite genetic risk scores derived from clinical ADHD cases would also contribute to variation in neurocognitive abilities in the general population. Methods Children (N = 6,832) from a UK population cohort, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), underwent neurocognitive testing. Parent-reported measures of their children's ADHD and autistic-like traits were used to construct a behavioural latent variable of ‘neurodevelopmental traits’. Composite genetic risk scores for ADHD were calculated for ALSPAC children based on findings from an independent ADHD case–control genome-wide association study. Structural equation modelling was used to assess associations between ADHD composite genetic risk scores and IQ, working memory, inhibitory control and facial emotion recognition, as well as the latent ‘neurodevelopmental trait’ measure. Results The results confirmed that neurocognitive and neurodevelopmental traits are correlated in children in the general population. Composite genetic risk scores for ADHD were independently associated with lower IQ (β = −.05, p < .001) and working memory performance (β = −.034, p = .013), even after accounting for the relationship with latent neurodevelopmental behavioural trait scores. No associations were found between composite genetic risk scores and inhibitory control or emotion recognition (p > .05). Conclusions These findings suggest that common

  10. Nutrition and the Risk of Alzheimer's Disease

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Lin; Wang, Ying-Li; Sun, Lei

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that accounts for the major cause of dementia, and the increasing worldwide prevalence of AD is a major public health concern. Increasing epidemiological studies suggest that diet and nutrition might be important modifiable risk factors for AD. Dietary supplementation of antioxidants, B vitamins, polyphenols, and polyunsaturated fatty acids are beneficial to AD, and consumptions of fish, fruits, vegetables, coffee, and light-to-moderate alcohol reduce the risk of AD. However, many of the results from randomized controlled trials are contradictory to that of epidemiological studies. Dietary patterns summarizing an overall diet are gaining momentum in recent years. Adherence to a healthy diet, the Japanese diet, and the Mediterranean diet is associated with a lower risk of AD. This paper will focus on the evidence linking many nutrients, foods, and dietary patterns to AD. PMID:23865055

  11. Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

    PubMed

    Nendaz, M; Spirk, D; Kucher, N; Aujesky, D; Hayoz, D; Beer, J H; Husmann, M; Frauchiger, B; Korte, W; Wuillemin, W A; Jäger, K; Righini, M; Bounameaux, H

    2014-03-03

    There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

  12. Association between the Family Nutrition and Physical Activity screening tool and cardiovascular disease risk factors in 10-year old children

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yee, Kimbo Edward

    Purpose. To examine the association of the Family Nutrition and Physical Activity (FNPA) screening tool, a behaviorally based screening tool designed to assess the obesogenic family environment and behaviors, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in 10-year old children. Methods. One hundred nineteen children were assessed for body mass index (BMI), percent body fat (%BF), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and resting blood pressure. A continuous CVD risk score was created using total cholesterol to HDL-cholesterol ratio (TC:HDL), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and WC. The FNPA survey was completed by parents. The associations between the FNPA score and individual CVD risk factors and the continuous CVD risk score were examined using correlation analyses. Results. Approximately 35% of the sample were overweight (19%) or obese (16%). The mean FNPA score was 24.6 +/- 2.5 (range 18 to 29). Significant correlations were found between the FNPA score and WC (r = -.35, p<.01), BMI percentile (r = -.38, p<.01), %BF (r = -.43, p<.01), and the continuous CVD risk score (r = -.22, p = .02). No significant association was found between the FNPA score and TC:HDL (r=0.10, p=0.88) or MAP (r=-0.12, p=0.20). Conclusion. Children from a high-risk, obesogenic family environment as indicated with a lower FNPA score have a higher CVD risk factor profile than children from a low-risk family environment.

  13. Space radiation and cardiovascular disease risk.

    PubMed

    Boerma, Marjan; Nelson, Gregory A; Sridharan, Vijayalakshmi; Mao, Xiao-Wen; Koturbash, Igor; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

    2015-12-26

    Future long-distance space missions will be associated with significant exposures to ionizing radiation, and the health risks of these radiation exposures during manned missions need to be assessed. Recent Earth-based epidemiological studies in survivors of atomic bombs and after occupational and medical low dose radiation exposures have indicated that the cardiovascular system may be more sensitive to ionizing radiation than was previously thought. This has raised the concern of a cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to space radiation during long-distance space travel. Ground-based studies with animal and cell culture models play an important role in estimating health risks from space radiation exposure. Charged particle space radiation has dense ionization characteristics and may induce unique biological responses, appropriate simulation of the space radiation environment and careful consideration of the choice of the experimental model are critical. Recent studies have addressed cardiovascular effects of space radiation using such models and provided first results that aid in estimating cardiovascular disease risk, and several other studies are ongoing. Moreover, astronauts could potentially be administered pharmacological countermeasures against adverse effects of space radiation, and research is focused on the development of such compounds. Because the cardiovascular response to space radiation has not yet been clearly defined, the identification of potential pharmacological countermeasures against cardiovascular effects is still in its infancy.

  14. Space radiation and cardiovascular disease risk

    PubMed Central

    Boerma, Marjan; Nelson, Gregory A; Sridharan, Vijayalakshmi; Mao, Xiao-Wen; Koturbash, Igor; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Future long-distance space missions will be associated with significant exposures to ionizing radiation, and the health risks of these radiation exposures during manned missions need to be assessed. Recent Earth-based epidemiological studies in survivors of atomic bombs and after occupational and medical low dose radiation exposures have indicated that the cardiovascular system may be more sensitive to ionizing radiation than was previously thought. This has raised the concern of a cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to space radiation during long-distance space travel. Ground-based studies with animal and cell culture models play an important role in estimating health risks from space radiation exposure. Charged particle space radiation has dense ionization characteristics and may induce unique biological responses, appropriate simulation of the space radiation environment and careful consideration of the choice of the experimental model are critical. Recent studies have addressed cardiovascular effects of space radiation using such models and provided first results that aid in estimating cardiovascular disease risk, and several other studies are ongoing. Moreover, astronauts could potentially be administered pharmacological countermeasures against adverse effects of space radiation, and research is focused on the development of such compounds. Because the cardiovascular response to space radiation has not yet been clearly defined, the identification of potential pharmacological countermeasures against cardiovascular effects is still in its infancy. PMID:26730293

  15. Childhood Social Disadvantage, Cardiometabolic Risk, and Chronic Disease in Adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Non, Amy L.; Rewak, Marissa; Kawachi, Ichiro; Gilman, Stephen E.; Loucks, Eric B.; Appleton, Allison A.; Román, Jorge C.; Buka, Stephen L.; Kubzansky, Laura D.

    2014-01-01

    Adverse social environments in early life are hypothesized to become biologically embedded during the first few years of life, with potentially far-reaching implications for health across the life course. Using prospective data from a subset of a US birth cohort, the Collaborative Perinatal Project, started in 1959–1966 (n = 566), we examined associations of social disadvantage assessed in childhood with cardiometabolic function and chronic disease status more than 40 years later (in 2005–2007). Social disadvantage was measured with an index that combined information on adverse socioeconomic and family stability factors experienced between birth and age 7 years. Cardiometabolic risk (CMR) was assessed by combining information from 8 CMR biomarkers; an index of chronic disease status was derived by assessing 8 chronic diseases. Poisson models were used to investigate associations between social disadvantage and CMR or chronic disease scores while adjusting for childhood covariates and potential pathway variables. A high level of social disadvantage was significantly associated with both higher CMR (incident rate ratio = 1.69, 95% confidence interval: 1.19, 2.39) and with a higher number of chronic diseases (incident rate ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.92) in minimally adjusted models. Associations with CMR persisted even after accounting for childhood and adult covariates. PMID:24970845

  16. College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

  17. Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting

    PubMed Central

    Gilman, Robert H.; Sanchez-Abanto, Jose R.; Study Group, CRONICAS Cohort

    2016-01-01

    Objective. To develop and validate a risk score for detecting cases of undiagnosed diabetes in a resource-constrained country. Methods. Two population-based studies in Peruvian population aged ≥35 years were used in the analysis: the ENINBSC survey (n = 2,472) and the CRONICAS Cohort Study (n = 2,945). Fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L was used to diagnose diabetes in both studies. Coefficients for risk score were derived from the ENINBSC data and then the performance was validated using both baseline and follow-up data of the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Results. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 2.0% in the ENINBSC survey and 2.9% in the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Predictors of undiagnosed diabetes were age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference. Score values ranged from 0 to 4, with an optimal cutoff ≥2 and had a moderate performance when applied in the CRONICAS baseline data (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.62–0.73; sensitivity 70%; specificity 59%). When predicting incident cases, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61–0.71), with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 59%. Conclusions. A simple nonblood based risk score based on age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference can be used as a simple screening tool for undiagnosed and incident cases of diabetes in Peru. PMID:27689096

  18. Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting.

    PubMed

    Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio; Smeeth, Liam; Gilman, Robert H; Sanchez-Abanto, Jose R; Checkley, William; Miranda, J Jaime; Study Group, Cronicas Cohort

    Objective. To develop and validate a risk score for detecting cases of undiagnosed diabetes in a resource-constrained country. Methods. Two population-based studies in Peruvian population aged ≥35 years were used in the analysis: the ENINBSC survey (n = 2,472) and the CRONICAS Cohort Study (n = 2,945). Fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L was used to diagnose diabetes in both studies. Coefficients for risk score were derived from the ENINBSC data and then the performance was validated using both baseline and follow-up data of the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Results. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 2.0% in the ENINBSC survey and 2.9% in the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Predictors of undiagnosed diabetes were age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference. Score values ranged from 0 to 4, with an optimal cutoff ≥2 and had a moderate performance when applied in the CRONICAS baseline data (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.62-0.73; sensitivity 70%; specificity 59%). When predicting incident cases, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61-0.71), with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 59%. Conclusions. A simple nonblood based risk score based on age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference can be used as a simple screening tool for undiagnosed and incident cases of diabetes in Peru.

  19. Effect of Metabolic Syndrome Score, Metabolic Syndrome, and Its Individual Components on the Prevalence and Severity of Angiographic Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Gui, Ming-Hui; Ling, Yan; Liu, Lin; Jiang, Jing-Jing; Li, Xiao-Ying; Gao, Xin

    2017-01-01

    Background: The clinical significance of metabolic syndrome (MS) score, MS, and its individual components with respect to risk prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) remains unclear. The objective of this study was to investigate whether and to what extent MS score, MS, and its individual components were related to the risk of CAD. Methods: Among 1191 participants who underwent coronary angiography for the confirmation of suspected myocardial ischemia, 858 were included in this study according to the inclusion criteria from September 2010 to June 2013. MS was diagnosed with the 2005 National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. The severity of coronary atherosclerosis was assessed by Gensini score. Results: The results showed that the age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for CAD were as follows: MS score, 1.327; MS, 2.013; elevated waist circumference, 1.447; reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 1.654; and elevated fasting glucose, 1.782; all P < 0.05; whereas for elevated triglycerides, 1.324, and elevated blood pressure, 1.342, both P > 0.05. After multivariate adjustment, results showed that only MS and elevated fasting glucose were significantly associated with CAD (OR, 1.628, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.151–2.305, P = 0.006 for elevated fasting glucose, and OR, 1.631, 95% CI, 1.208–2.203, P = 0.001 for MS). The study showed that only MS score and elevated fasting glucose were significantly associated with Gensini score (standardized coefficient, 0.101, P = 0.031 for elevated fasting glucose and standardized coefficient, 0.103, P = 0.009 for MS score). Conclusions: The present study demonstrated that MS score, MS, and its individual components might have different contributions to CAD prevalence and severity. MS and elevated fasting glucose were independent risk factors for the prevalence of angiographic CAD whereas MS score and elevated fasting glucose were significantly associated with the severity of CAD

  20. Using “Big Data” to Capture Overall Health Status: Properties and Predictive Value of a Claims-Based Health Risk Score

    PubMed Central

    Hamad, Rita; Modrek, Sepideh; Kubo, Jessica; Goldstein, Benjamin A.; Cullen, Mark R.

    2015-01-01

    Background Investigators across many fields often struggle with how best to capture an individual’s overall health status, with options including both subjective and objective measures. With the increasing availability of “big data,” researchers can now take advantage of novel metrics of health status. These predictive algorithms were initially developed to forecast and manage expenditures, yet they represent an underutilized tool that could contribute significantly to health research. In this paper, we describe the properties and possible applications of one such “health risk score,” the DxCG Intelligence tool. Methods We link claims and administrative datasets on a cohort of U.S. workers during the period 1996–2011 (N = 14,161). We examine the risk score’s association with incident diagnoses of five disease conditions, and we link employee data with the National Death Index to characterize its relationship with mortality. We review prior studies documenting the risk score’s association with other health and non-health outcomes, including healthcare utilization, early retirement, and occupational injury. Results and Conclusions We find that the risk score is associated with outcomes across a variety of health and non-health domains. These examples demonstrate the broad applicability of this tool in multiple fields of research and illustrate its utility as a measure of overall health status for epidemiologists and other health researchers. PMID:25951622

  1. The Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool (ADEPT): A Risk Score to Estimate Survival in Nursing Home Residents with Advanced Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Susan L.; Miller, Susan C.; Teno, Joan M.; Davis, Roger B.; Shaffer, Michele L.

    2010-01-01

    Context Estimating life expectancy is challenging in advanced dementia. Objectives To create a risk score to estimate survival in nursing home (NH) residents with advanced dementia. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study performed in the setting of all licensed US NHs. Residents with advanced dementia living in US NHs in 2002 were identified using Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments. Mortality data from Medicare files were used to determine 12-month survival. Independent variables were selected from the MDS. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model survival. The accuracy of the final model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). To develop a risk score, points were assigned to variables in the final model based on parameter estimates. Residents meeting hospice eligibility guidelines for dementia, based on MDS data, were identified. The AUROC assessed the accuracy of hospice guidelines to predict six-month survival. Results Over 12 months, 40.6% of residents with advanced dementia (n=22,405) died. Twelve variables best predicted survival: length of stay, age, male, dyspnea, pressure ulcers, total functional dependence, bedfast, insufficient intake, bowel incontinence, body mass index, weight loss, and congestive heart failure. The AUROC for the final model was 0.68. The risk score ranged from 0–32 points (higher scores indicate worse survival). Only 15.9% of residents met hospice eligibility guidelines for which the AUROC predicting six-month survival was 0.53. Conclusion A mortality risk score derived from MDS data predicted six-month survival in advanced dementia with moderate accuracy. The predictive ability of hospice guidelines, simulated with MDS data, was poor. PMID:20621437

  2. Does body mass index (BMI) influence the Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score in axial spondyloarthritis?

    PubMed Central

    Rubio Vargas, Roxana; van den Berg, Rosaline; van Lunteren, Miranda; Ez-Zaitouni, Zineb; Bakker, Pauline A C; Dagfinrud, Hanne; Ramonda, Roberta; Landewé, Robert; Molenaar, Esmeralda; van Gaalen, Floris A; van der Heijde, Désirée

    2016-01-01

    Objective Obesity is associated with elevated C reactive protein (CRP) levels. The Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) combines patient-reported outcomes (PROs) and CRP. We evaluated the effect of body mass index (BMI) on CRP and on ASDAS, and studied if ASDAS can be used in obese axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) patients to assess disease activity. Methods Baseline data of patients with chronic back pain of short duration included in the SPondyloArthritis Caught Early (SPACE) cohort were used. Collected data included BMI and ASDAS. Patients were classified according to the ASAS axSpA classification criteria and BMI (overweight ≥25 and obese ≥30). Correlation and linear regression analyses were performed to assess the relation between BMI and ASDAS. Linear regression models were performed to assess if age or gender were effect modifiers in the relation between BMI and CRP, and between BMI and ASDAS. Results In total, 428 patients were analysed (n=168 axSpA; n=260 no-axSpA). The mean age was 31.1 years, 36.9% were male, 26.4% were overweight and 13.3% obese, median CRP was 3 mg/L and the mean ASDAS was 2.6. Gender was the only factor modifying the relationship between BMI and CRP as BMI had an influence on CRP only in females (β=0.35; p<0.001). Correlations between BMI and CRP or PROs were generally weak, and only significant for CRP in female patients. BMI was not related to ASDAS in axSpA patients. Conclusions ASDAS is not affected by BMI in axSpA patients. Therefore, based on our data it is not necessary to take BMI in consideration when assessing disease activity using ASDAS in axSpA patients. PMID:27403336

  3. Gait profile score and movement analysis profile in patients with Parkinson's disease during concurrent cognitive load

    PubMed Central

    Speciali, Danielli S.; Oliveira, Elaine M.; Cardoso, Jefferson R.; Correa, João C. F.; Baker, Richard; Lucareli, Paulo R. G.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Gait disorders are common in individuals with Parkinson's Disease (PD) and the concurrent performance of motor and cognitive tasks can have marked effects on gait. The Gait Profile Score (GPS) and the Movement Analysis Profile (MAP) were developed in order to summarize the data of kinematics and facilitate understanding of the results of gait analysis. Objective: To investigate the effectiveness of the GPS and MAP in the quantification of changes in gait during a concurrent cognitive load while walking in adults with and without PD. Method: Fourteen patients with idiopathic PD and nine healthy subjects participated in the study. All subjects performed single and dual walking tasks. The GPS/MAP was computed from three-dimensional gait analysis data. Results: Differences were found between tasks for GPS (P<0.05) and Gait Variable Score (GVS) (pelvic rotation, knee flexion-extension and ankle dorsiflexion-plantarflexion) (P<0.05) in the PD group. An interaction between task and group was observed for GPS (P<0.01) for the right side (Cohen's ¯d=0.99), left side (Cohen's ¯d=0.91), and overall (Cohen's ¯d=0.88). No interaction was observed only for hip internal-external rotation and foot internal-external progression GVS variables in the PD group. Conclusions: The results showed gait impairment during the dual task and suggest that GPS/MAP may be used to evaluate the effects of concurrent cognitive load while walking in patients with PD. PMID:25054382

  4. Risk of lung cancer in Parkinson's disease

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Xin; Luo, Xiaoguang; Xie, Mingliang; Liu, Yang; Wu, Ting

    2016-01-01

    Recently, growing evidence has revealed the significant association between Parkinson's disease (PD) and cancer. However, controversy still exists concerning the association between PD and lung cancer. A comprehensive article search for relevant studies published was performed using the following online databases: PubMed, Web of Science and Embase up to August 31, 2016. The pooled risk ratio (RR) and their 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using the method of inverse variance with the random-effects model. Fifteen studies comprising 348,780 PD patients were included in this study. The pooled result indicated that patients with PD were significantly associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer (RR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.41−0.70, P < 0.001). In addition, subgroup analyses performed in Western population also confirmed the significant inverse relationship between PD and risk of lung cancer (RR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.39−0.60, P < 0.001). In the subgroup analysis, a reduced risk of lung cancer in PD patients from Western population was consistent regardless of study design, gender, or study quality. In conclusion, PD patients were significantly associated with a reduced risk of lung cancer in Western population. The relationship between them in Asian population needs to be confirmed by future studies. PMID:27801674

  5. Interpreting the multi-biomarker disease activity score in the context of tocilizumab treatment for patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Reiss, William G; Devenport, Jenny N; Low, Jason M; Wu, George; Sasso, Eric H

    2016-02-01

    The multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score measures 12 proteins involved in the pathophysiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to assess disease activity (DA). Previous studies demonstrated correlations between MBDA and clinical DA scores with some RA therapies. In this analysis, the relationship between DA and MBDA scores and changes in MBDA component biomarkers were evaluated in tocilizumab (TCZ)-treated patients. Patients from the ACT-RAY study were included in this analysis if they had DA measures and serum collected at pre-specified time points with sufficient serum for MBDA testing at ≥1 visit. Descriptive statistics, associations between outcomes, and percentage agreement between DA categories were calculated. Seventy-eight patients were included and were similar to the ACT-RAY population. Correlations between MBDA score and DAS28-CRP were ρ = 0.50 at baseline and ρ = 0.26 at week 24. Agreement between low/moderate/high categories of MBDA score and DAS28-CRP was observed for 77.1 % of patients at baseline and 23.7 % at week 24. Mean changes from baseline to weeks 4, 12, and 24 were proportionately smaller for MBDA score than DAS28-CRP. Unlike some other MBDA biomarkers, interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations increased in most patients during TCZ treatment. Correlations and agreement between MBDA and DAS28-CRP or CDAI scores were lower at week 24 versus baseline. The proportionately smaller magnitude of response observed for MBDA score versus DAS28-CRP may be due to the influence of the increase in IL-6 concentrations on MBDA score. Thus, MBDA scores obtained during TCZ treatment should be interpreted cautiously and in the context of available clinical information.

  6. Scoring system for renal pathology in Fabry disease: report of the International Study Group of Fabry Nephropathy (ISGFN)

    PubMed Central

    Fogo, Agnes B.; Bostad, Leif; Svarstad, Einar; Cook, William J.; Moll, Solange; Barbey, Federic; Geldenhuys, Laurette; West, Michael; Ferluga, Dusan; Vujkovac, Bojan; Howie, Alexander J.; Burns, Áine; Reeve, Roy; Waldek, Stephen; Noël, Laure-Hélène; Grünfeld, Jean-Pierre; Valbuena, Carmen; Oliveira, João Paulo; Müller, Justus; Breunig, Frank; Zhang, Xiao; Warnock, David G.

    2010-01-01

    Background. In Fabry nephropathy, alpha-galactosidase deficiency leads to accumulation of glycosphingolipids in all kidney cell types, proteinuria and progressive loss of kidney function. Methods. An international working group of nephrologists from 11 Fabry centres identified adult Fabry patients, and pathologists scored histologic changes on renal biopsies. A standardized scoring system was developed with a modified Delphi technique assessing 59 Fabry nephropathy cases. Each case was scored independently of clinical information by at least three pathologists with an average final score reported. Results. We assessed 35 males (mean age 36.4 years) and 24 females (43.9 years) who mostly had clinically mild Fabry nephropathy. The average serum creatinine was 1.3 mg/dl (114.9 μmol/l); estimated glomerular filtration rate was 81.7 ml/min/1.73 m2 and urine protein to creatinine ratio was 1.08 g/g (122.0 mg/mmol). Males had greater podocyte vacuolization on light microscopy (mean score) and glycosphingolipid inclusions on semi-thin sections than females. Males also had significantly more proximal tubule, peritubular capillary and vascular intimal inclusions. Arteriolar hyalinosis was similar, but females had significantly more arterial hyalinosis. Chronic kidney disease stage correlated with arterial and glomerular sclerosis scores. Significant changes, including segmental and global sclerosis, and interstitial fibrosis were seen even in patients with stage 1–2 chronic kidney disease with minimal proteinuria. Conclusions. The development of a standardized scoring system of both disease-specific lesions, i.e. lipid deposition related, and general lesions of progression, i.e. fibrosis and sclerosis, showed a spectrum of histologic appearances even in early clinical stage of Fabry nephropathy. These findings support the role of kidney biopsy in the baseline evaluation of Fabry nephropathy, even with mild clinical disease. The scoring system will be useful for

  7. Risk of falls in Parkinson's disease: a cross-sectional study of 160 patients.

    PubMed

    Contreras, Ana; Grandas, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Falls are a major source of disability in Parkinson's disease. Risk factors for falling in Parkinson's disease remain unclear. To determine the relevant risk factors for falling in Parkinson's disease, we screened 160 consecutive patients with Parkinson's disease for falls and assessed 40 variables. A comparison between fallers and nonfallers was performed using statistical univariate analyses, followed by bivariate and multivariate logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristics analysis, and Kaplan-Meier curves. 38.8% of patients experienced falls since the onset of Parkinson's disease (recurrent in 67%). Tinetti Balance score and Hoehn and Yahr staging were the best independent variables associated with falls. The Tinetti Balance test predicted falls with 71% sensitivity and 79% specificity and Hoehn and Yahr staging with 77% sensitivity and 71% specificity. The risk of falls increased exponentially with age, especially from 70 years onward. Patients aged >70 years at the onset of Parkinson's disease experienced falls significantly earlier than younger patients.

  8. Dietary intake in adults at risk for Huntington disease

    PubMed Central

    Marder, K; Zhao, H; Eberly, S; Tanner, C M.; Oakes, D; Shoulson, I

    2009-01-01

    Objective: To examine caloric intake, dietary composition, and body mass index (BMI) in participants in the Prospective Huntington At Risk Observational Study (PHAROS). Methods: Caloric intake and macronutrient composition were measured using the National Cancer Institute Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) in 652 participants at risk for Huntington disease (HD) who did not meet clinical criteria for HD. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between macronutrients, BMI, caloric intake, and genetic status (CAG <37 vs CAG ≥37), adjusting for age, gender, and education. Linear regression was used to determine the relationship between caloric intake, BMI, and CAG repeat length. Results: A total of 435 participants with CAG <37 and 217 with CAG ≥37 completed the FFQ. Individuals in the CAG ≥37 group had a twofold odds of being represented in the second, third, or fourth quartile of caloric intake compared to the lowest quartile adjusted for age, gender, education, and BMI. This relationship was attenuated in the highest quartile when additionally adjusted for total motor score. In subjects with CAG ≥37, higher caloric intake, but not BMI, was associated with both higher CAG repeat length (adjusted regression coefficient = 0.26, p = 0.032) and 5-year probability of onset of HD (adjusted regression coefficient = 0.024; p = 0.013). Adjusted analyses showed no differences in macronutrient composition between groups. Conclusions: Increased caloric intake may be necessary to maintain body mass index in clinically unaffected individuals with CAG repeat length ≥37. This may be related to increased energy expenditure due to subtle motor impairment or a hypermetabolic state. GLOSSARY BEE = basal energy expenditure; BMI = body mass index; FFQ = Food Frequency Questionnaire; HD = Huntington disease; OR = odds ratio; PD = Parkinson disease; PHAROS = Prospective Huntington At Risk Observational Study; TEE = total energy expenditure; UHDRS = Unified

  9. Effect of atorvastatin and diet on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease activity score in hyperlipidemic chickens.

    PubMed

    Martín-Castillo, Antonia; Castells, Maria Teresa; Adánez, Gracia; Polo, Maria Teresa Sánchez; Pérez, Bartolomé García; Ayala, Ignacio

    2010-04-01

    Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is part of the spectrum of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which includes from simple steatosis and steatohepatitis, to the most severe cirrhosis and carcinoma, which develops in the absence of excessive alcohol intake. NAFLD is the most common liver disorder in affluent societies. There is no proven treatment for NAFLD/NASH. One of the most frequent adverse effects of statins is an increase in hepatic aminotransferases. Studies that evaluate if the benefits of statins overcome the risks in NASH are lacking. The present study was conceived to explore the effect of both atorvastatin and diet on regression of steatohepatitis, using a chicken experimental model induced by a hyperlipidemic diet (HD). Plasma lipid levels, liver enzymes and hepatic histopathology, as well as image analysis were performed to determine changes in liver lipid deposits and inflammatory infiltration. Features of steatosis, cell-ballooning, and inflammation were scored to obtain the NAFLD activity score (NAS). A severe level of steatosis was found in animals fed on HD. Atorvastatin treated groups showed smaller size of lipid deposits and a lower level of inflammation than non-treated groups. Atorvastatin therapy induced a significant reduction of hepatocellular damage, even though in the animals which continuously received a hyperlipidemic diet. The combination of atorvastatin therapy and a standard diet produced the lowest decrease of NAS. Our results show that atorvastatin therapy not only decreased plasmatic levels of cholesterol and triglycerides, but also induced a reduction of liver steatosis, inflammation and hepatocellular damage, without increasing plasmatic aminotransferase levels.

  10. Agreement between the SCORE and D’Agostino Scales for the Classification of High Cardiovascular Risk in Sedentary Spanish Patients

    PubMed Central

    Gómez-Marcos, Manuel A.; Grandes, Gonzalo; Iglesias-Valiente, José A.; Sánchez, Alvaro; Montoya, Imanol; García-Ortiz, Luis

    2009-01-01

    Background: To evaluate agreement between cardiovascular risk in sedentary patients as estimated by the new Framingham-D’Agostino scale and by the SCORE chart, and to describe the patient characteristics associated with the observed disagreement between the scales. Design: A cross-sectional study was undertaken involving a systematic sample of 2,295 sedentary individuals between 40–65 years of age seen for any reason in 56 primary care offices. An estimation was made of the Pearson correlation coefficient and kappa statistic for the classification of high risk subjects (≥20% according to the Framingham-D’Agostino scale, and ≥5% according to SCORE). Polytomous logistic regression models were fitted to identify the variables associated with the discordance between the two scales. Results: The mean risk in males (35%) was 19.5% ± 13% with D’Agostino scale, and 3.2% ± 3.3% with SCORE. Among females, they were 8.1% ± 6.8% and 1.2% ± 2.2%, respectively. The correlation between the two scales was 0.874 in males (95% CI: 0.857–0.889) and 0.818 in females (95% CI: 0.800–0.834), while the kappa index was 0.50 in males (95% CI: 0.44%–0.56%) and 0.61 in females (95% CI: 0.52%–0.71%). The most frequent disagreement, characterized by high risk according to D’Agostino scale but not according to SCORE, was much more prevalent among males and proved more probable with increasing age and increased LDL-cholesterol, triglyceride and systolic blood pressure values, as well as among those who used antihypertensive drugs and smokers. Conclusions: The quantitative correlation between the two scales is very high. Patient categorization as corresponding to high risk generates disagreements, mainly among males, where agreement between the two classifications is only moderate. PMID:20049225

  11. Risk-based priority scoring for Brookhaven National Laboratory environmental restoration programs

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, S.C.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes the process of estimating the risk associated with environmental restoration programs under the Brookhaven National Laboratory Office of Environmental Restoration. The process was part of an effort across all Department of Energy facilities to provide a consistent framework to communicate risk information about the facilities to senior managers in the DOE Office of Environmental Management to foster understanding of risk activities across programs. the risk evaluation was a qualitative exercise. Categories considered included: Public health and safety; site personnel safety and health; compliance; mission impact; cost-effective risk management; environmental protection; inherent worker risk; environmental effects of clean-up; and social, cultural, political, and economic impacts.

  12. Jurors report that risk measure scores matter in sexually violent predator trials, but that other factors matter more.

    PubMed

    Turner, Darrel B; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Murrie, Daniel C; Harris, Paige B

    2015-02-01

    After deliberating to a verdict, jurors (N = 462) from 40 sexually violent predator (SVP) trials completed a questionnaire asking them to rate the extent to which risk measure scores, diagnoses, expert witness testimony, and offender characteristics described during the trials influenced their commitment decisions. Jurors reported that offenders' sexual offending history, failure to change, and lack of remorse had the strongest influence on their commitment decisions. They reported that testimony about risk instrument scores (e.g., Static-99) and psychopathy had less influence on their decisions, but those who did report being influenced by instrument results were especially likely to view the offender as being at a high risk for reoffending. Overall, findings suggest that SVP jurors view risk measure results as important, but not as important as other offender, offense, and testimony characteristics, including some that have limited relevance to recidivism risk. Thus, findings also suggest that experts may need to better educate jurors regarding factors that do and do not relate to recidivism risk.

  13. Genetic Stratification to Identify Risk Groups for Alzheimer’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Marioni, Riccardo E.; Campbell, Archie; Hagenaars, Saskia P.; Nagy, Reka; Amador, Carmen; Hayward, Caroline; Porteous, David J.; Visscher, Peter M.; Deary, Ian J.

    2017-01-01

    Stratification by genetic risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) may help identify groups with the greatest disease risk. Biological changes that cause late-onset AD are likely to occur years, if not decades prior to diagnosis. Here, we select a subset of the Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study cohort in a likely preclinical age-range of 60–70 years (subset n = 3,495 with cognitive and genetic data). We test for cognitive differences by polygenic risk scores for AD. The polygenic scores are constructed using all available SNPs, excluding those within a 500 kb distance of the APOE locus. Additive and multiplicative effects of APOE status on these associations are investigated. Small memory decrements were observed in those with high polygenic risk scores for