Histological scoring and associated risk factors of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Majid, N; Ali, Z; Rahman, M R; Akhter, A; Rajib, R C; Ahmad, F; Sharmin, S; Akond, A K; Huq, N

2013-10-01

Non alcoholic steatohepatitis is a hepatic disorder with histological features of alcohol induced liver disease that occurs in individual who do not consume significant alcohol. Liver biopsy is an important part of the evaluation in term of both grade & stage. A cross sectional study was carried out in the department of Pathology, Dhaka Medical College, Dhaka & department of Hepatology, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU) from July 2007 to June 2009. Total 55 adult subjects of both sex were included on the basis of predefined inclusion & exclusion criteria in this study to evaluate the histological pattern of non alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its correlation with risk factors. Liver biopsy was done and H & E and Masson's Trichrome stain slides were examined to evaluate the grade and stage of NAFLD. Scoring and semiquantitative assessment of steatosis and NAFLD severity was done according to Kleiner scale known as NAFLD activity score (NAS). The results of Pearson correlation showed only BMI and triglyceride level significantly correlated with NAS score. The results of Spearman's rank correlation showed that BMI, central obesity, triglyceridaemia and age significantly correlated with staging of fibrosis. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that variation of NAS depend on BMI and triglyceride level. The study also revealed that risk factors contributed about 29% risk for the occurrence of non alcoholic steatohepatitis.

Polygenic risk score analysis of pathologically confirmed Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Escott-Price, Valentina; Myers, Amanda J; Huentelman, Matt; Hardy, John

2017-08-01

Previous estimates of the utility of polygenic risk score analysis for the prediction of Alzheimer disease have given area under the curve (AUC) estimates of <80%. However, these have been based on the genetic analysis of clinical case-control series. Here, we apply the same analytic approaches to a pathological case-control series and show a predictive AUC of 84%. We suggest that this analysis has clinical utility and that there is limited room for further improvement using genetic data. Ann Neurol 2017;82:311-314. © 2017 American Neurological Association.

Impact of Replacing the Pooled Cohort Equation With Other Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]).

PubMed

Qureshi, Waqas T; Michos, Erin D; Flueckiger, Peter; Blaha, Michael; Sandfort, Veit; Herrington, David M; Burke, Gregory; Yeboah, Joseph

2016-09-01

The increase in statin eligibility by the new cholesterol guidelines is mostly driven by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) criterion (≥7.5% 10-year PCE). The impact of replacing the PCE with either the modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) on assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment and statin eligibility remains unknown. We assessed the comparative benefits of using the PCE, FRS, and SCORE for ASCVD risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Of 6,815 participants, 654 (mean age 61.4 ± 10.3; 47.1% men; 37.1% whites; 27.2% blacks; 22.3% Hispanics; 12.0% Chinese-Americans) were included in analysis. Area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to compare the 3 risk scores. Decision curve analysis is the plot of net benefit versus probability thresholds; net benefit = true positive rate - (false positive rate × weighting factor). Weighting factor = Threshold probability/1 - threshold probability. After a median of 8.6 years, 342 (6.0%) ASCVD events (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, fatal or nonfatal stroke) occurred. All 4 risk scores had acceptable discriminative ability for incident ASCVD events; (AUC [95% CI] PCE: 0.737 [0.713 to 0.762]; FRS: 0.717 [0.691 to 0.743], SCORE (high risk) 0.722 [0.696 to 0.747], and SCORE (low risk): 0.721 [0.696 to 0.746]. At the ASCVD risk threshold recommended for statin eligibility for primary prevention (≥7.5%), the PCE provides the best net benefit. Replacing the PCE with the SCORE (high), SCORE (low) and FRS results in a 2.9%, 8.9%, and 17.1% further increase in statin eligibility. The PCE has the best discrimination and net benefit for primary ASCVD risk assessment in a US-based multiethnic cohort compared with the SCORE or the FRS. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S

2017-09-01

It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

Simple new risk score model for adult cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: simple cardiac ECMO score.

PubMed

Peigh, Graham; Cavarocchi, Nicholas; Keith, Scott W; Hirose, Hitoshi

2015-10-01

Although the use of cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasing in adult patients, the field lacks understanding of associated risk factors. While standard intensive care unit risk scores such as SAPS II (simplified acute physiology score II), SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment), and APACHE II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II), or disease-specific scores such as MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) and RIFLE (kidney risk, injury, failure, loss of function, ESRD) exist, they may not apply to adult cardiac ECMO patients as their risk factors differ from variables used in these scores. Between 2010 and 2014, 73 ECMOs were performed for cardiac support at our institution. Patient demographics and survival were retrospectively analyzed. A new easily calculated score for predicting ECMO mortality was created using identified risk factors from univariate and multivariate analyses, and model discrimination was compared with other scoring systems. Cardiac ECMO was performed on 73 patients (47 males and 26 females) with a mean age of 48 ± 14 y. Sixty-four percent of patients (47/73) survived ECMO support. Pre-ECMO SAPS II, SOFA, APACHE II, MELD, RIFLE, PRESERVE, and ECMOnet scores, were not correlated with survival. Univariate analysis of pre-ECMO risk factors demonstrated that increased lactate, renal dysfunction, and postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock were risk factors for death. Applying these data into a new simplified cardiac ECMO score (minimal risk = 0, maximal = 5) predicted patient survival. Survivors had a lower risk score (1.8 ± 1.2) versus the nonsurvivors (3.0 ± 0.99), P < 0.0001. Common intensive care unit or disease-specific risk scores calculated for cardiac ECMO patients did not correlate with ECMO survival, whereas a new simplified cardiac ECMO score provides survival predictability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores.

PubMed

Dudbridge, Frank; Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

2018-02-01

The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores

PubMed Central

Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. PMID:29178508

Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score to Improve Risk Prediction for Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Chouraki, Vincent; Reitz, Christiane; Maury, Fleur; Bis, Joshua C; Bellenguez, Celine; Yu, Lei; Jakobsdottir, Johanna; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Adams, Hieab H; Choi, Seung Hoan; Larson, Eric B; Fitzpatrick, Annette; Uitterlinden, Andre G; de Jager, Philip L; Hofman, Albert; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Vardarajan, Badri; Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla; van der Lee, Sven J; Lopez, Oscar; Dartigues, Jean-François; Berr, Claudine; Amouyel, Philippe; Bennett, David A; van Duijn, Cornelia; DeStefano, Anita L; Launer, Lenore J; Ikram, M Arfan; Crane, Paul K; Lambert, Jean-Charles; Mayeux, Richard; Seshadri, Sudha

2016-06-18

Effective prevention of Alzheimer's disease (AD) requires the development of risk prediction tools permitting preclinical intervention. We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising common genetic variants associated with AD, evaluated its association with incident AD and assessed its capacity to improve risk prediction over traditional models based on age, sex, education, and APOEɛ4. In eight prospective cohorts included in the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP), we derived weighted sum of risk alleles from the 19 top SNPs reported by the IGAP GWAS in participants aged 65 and older without prevalent dementia. Hazard ratios (HR) of incident AD were estimated in Cox models. Improvement in risk prediction was measured by the difference in C-index (Δ-C), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI>0). Overall, 19,687 participants at risk were included, of whom 2,782 developed AD. The GRS was associated with a 17% increase in AD risk (pooled HR = 1.17; 95% CI =   [1.13-1.21] per standard deviation increase in GRS; p-value =  2.86×10-16). This association was stronger among persons with at least one APOEɛ4 allele (HRGRS = 1.24; 95% CI =   [1.15-1.34]) than in others (HRGRS = 1.13; 95% CI =   [1.08-1.18]; pinteraction = 3.45×10-2). Risk prediction after seven years of follow-up showed a small improvement when adding the GRS to age, sex, APOEɛ4, and education (Δ-Cindex =  0.0043 [0.0019-0.0067]). Similar patterns were observed for IDI and NRI>0. In conclusion, a risk score incorporating common genetic variation outside the APOEɛ4 locus improved AD risk prediction and may facilitate risk stratification for prevention trials.

Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

2018-02-13

In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and <20% of them are now included anatomically as high risk for PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

Framingham risk score can predict cognitive decline progression in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Viticchi, Giovanna; Falsetti, Lorenzo; Buratti, Laura; Boria, Cristiano; Luzzi, Simona; Bartolini, Marco; Provinciali, Leandro; Silvestrini, Mauro

2015-11-01

The role of vascular factors in influencing cognitive decline has been extensively investigated, and some difficulties in defining their weight in dementia pathogenesis have emerged. The aim of the study was to investigate the relevance of the Framingham cardiovascular risk profile (FCRP) in influencing cognitive deterioration in a population of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Two hundred eighty-four consecutive AD patients were enrolled. For each patient, FCRP score was calculated. We did a 1-year follow-up to quantify the cognitive decline by recording changes in the Clinical Dementia Rating score. The FCRP score predicted cognitive deterioration with an area under the curve of 0.63 (95% confidence interval: 0.57-0.69; p < 0.0001). In the subpopulation of patients with a genetic increased predisposition to develop cognitive deterioration and with an advanced vascular impairment, the FCRP predictive value significantly increased with an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.52-0.93; p < 0.05). Our findings show that FCRP can predict the progression of deterioration in AD patients. This was particularly evident in patients with major genetic and atherosclerotic risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk Profile Score Predicts Hippocampal Function.

PubMed

Xiao, Ena; Chen, Qiang; Goldman, Aaron L; Tan, Hao Yang; Healy, Kaitlin; Zoltick, Brad; Das, Saumitra; Kolachana, Bhaskar; Callicott, Joseph H; Dickinson, Dwight; Berman, Karen F; Weinberger, Daniel R; Mattay, Venkata S

2017-11-01

We explored the cumulative effect of several late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) risk loci using a polygenic risk profile score (RPS) approach on measures of hippocampal function, cognition, and brain morphometry. In a sample of 231 healthy control subjects (19-55 years of age), we used an RPS to study the effect of several LOAD risk loci reported in a recent meta-analysis on hippocampal function (determined by its engagement with blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging during episodic memory) and several cognitive metrics. We also studied effects on brain morphometry in an overlapping sample of 280 subjects. There was almost no significant association of LOAD-RPS with cognitive or morphometric measures. However, there was a significant negative relationship between LOAD-RPS and hippocampal function (familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest] p < .05). There were also similar associations for risk score based on APOE haplotype, and for a combined LOAD-RPS + APOE haplotype risk profile score (p < .05 familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest]). Of the 29 individual single nucleotide polymorphisms used in calculating LOAD-RPS, variants in CLU, PICALM, BCL3, PVRL2, and RELB showed strong effects (p < .05 familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest]) on hippocampal function, though none survived further correction for the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms tested. There is a cumulative deleterious effect of LOAD risk genes on hippocampal function even in healthy volunteers. The effect of LOAD-RPS on hippocampal function in the relative absence of any effect on cognitive and morphometric measures is consistent with the reported temporal characteristics of LOAD biomarkers with the earlier manifestation of synaptic dysfunction before morphometric and cognitive changes. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

How close are we to implementing a genetic risk score for coronary heart disease?

PubMed

Beaney, Katherine; Drenos, Fotios; Humphries, Steve E

2017-10-01

Genome-wide association meta-analysis have now identified more than 150 loci where common variants (SNPs) are significantly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and CHD end points. Areas covered: The authors review publications from their own laboratory and published recently where identified CHD risk SNPs are used in combination, and 'scaled' by their effect size, to create a 'weighted' Genetic risk Score (GRS), which, in combination with an individual's classical CHD risk factors, can be used to identify those at overall low, intermediate and high future risk. Those at highest risk can be offered life-style and therapeutic options to reduce their risk and those at intermediate levels can be monitored. Expert commentary: The authors discuss the selection of the best variants to be included in the GRS, and the potential utility of such scores in different clinical settings. The limitations of the current data sets and the way forward in the next 5 years is discussed.

Changes in Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among US Men and Women

PubMed Central

Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N.; Mattei, Josiemer; Fung, Teresa T.; Li, Yanping; Pan, An; Willett, Walter C.; Rimm, Eric B.; Hu, Frank B.

2015-01-01

Background Adherence to several diet quality scores including the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), Alternative Mediterranean diet score (AMED), and Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but little is known about how changes in these scores over time influence subsequent CVD risk. Methods and Results We analyzed the association between 4-year changes in three diet quality scores (AHEI, AMED, and DASH) and subsequent CVD risk among 29,343 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and 51,195 women in the Nurses’ Health Study (1986–2010). During 1,394,702 person-years of follow up, we documented 11,793 CVD cases. Compared with participants whose diet quality remained relatively stable in each 4-year period, those with the greatest improvement in diet quality scores had a 7%–8% lower CVD risk in the subsequent 4-year period (pooled hazard ratio, 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87–0.99] for AHEI; 0.93 [95% CI: 0.85–1.02] for AMED; and 0.93 [95% CI: 0.87–0.99] for DASH; all P-trend<0.05). In the long term, increasing the diet scores from baseline to the first 4-year follow up was associated with lower CVD risk during the next 20 years (7% [95% CI: 1% to 12%] for AHEI and 9% [95% CI: 3% to 14%] for AMED). A decrease in diet quality scores was associated with significantly elevated risk of CVD in subsequent time periods. Conclusions Improving adherence to diet quality scores over time is associated with significantly lower CVD risk both in the short term and the long term. PMID:26644246

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

Cardiovascular disease risk scores in the current practice: which to use in rheumatoid arthritis?

PubMed

Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Gheorghe, A; Udrea, G; Stoica, V

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the highest prevalence disease in the general population (GP) and it accounts for 20 million deaths worldwide each year. Its prevalence is even higher in rheumatoid arthritis. Early detection of subclinical disease is critical and the use of cardiovascular risk prediction models and calculators is widely spread. The impact of such techniques in the GP was previously studied. Despite their common background and similarities, some disagreement exists between most scores and their importance in special high-risk populations like rheumatoid arthritis (RA), having a low level of evidence. The current article aims to single out those predictive models (models) that could be most useful in the care of rheumatoid arthritis patients.

Cardiovascular disease risk scores in the current practice: which to use in rheumatoid arthritis?

PubMed Central

Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Gheorghe, A; Udrea, G; Stoica, V

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the highest prevalence disease in the general population (GP) and it accounts for 20 million deaths worldwide each year. Its prevalence is even higher in rheumatoid arthritis. Early detection of subclinical disease is critical and the use of cardiovascular risk prediction models and calculators is widely spread. The impact of such techniques in the GP was previously studied. Despite their common background and similarities, some disagreement exists between most scores and their importance in special high-risk populations like rheumatoid arthritis (RA), having a low level of evidence. The current article aims to single out those predictive models (models) that could be most useful in the care of rheumatoid arthritis patients. PMID:25713603

Cardiovascular risk prediction in HIV-infected patients: comparing the Framingham, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) and Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) risk prediction models.

PubMed

Krikke, M; Hoogeveen, R C; Hoepelman, A I M; Visseren, F L J; Arends, J E

2016-04-01

The aim of the study was to compare the predictions of five popular cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models, namely the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) coronary heart disease (FHS-CHD) and general CVD (FHS-CVD) models, the American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD) model and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) model. A cross-sectional design was used to compare the cumulative CVD risk predictions of the models. Furthermore, the predictions of the general CVD models were compared with those of the HIV-specific D:A:D model using three categories (< 10%, 10-20% and > 20%) to categorize the risk and to determine the degree to which patients were categorized similarly or in a higher/lower category. A total of 997 HIV-infected patients were included in the study: 81% were male and they had a median age of 46 [interquartile range (IQR) 40-52] years, a known duration of HIV infection of 6.8 (IQR 3.7-10.9) years, and a median time on ART of 6.4 (IQR 3.0-11.5) years. The D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models gave a lower cumulative CVD risk, compared with that of the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models. Comparing the general CVD models with the D:A:D model, the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models only classified 65% and 79% of patients, respectively, in the same category as did the D:A:D model. However, for the ASCVD and SCORE-NL models, this percentage was 89% and 87%, respectively. Furthermore, FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD attributed a higher CVD risk to 33% and 16% of patients, respectively, while this percentage was < 6% for ASCVD and SCORE-NL. When using FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD, a higher overall CVD risk was attributed to the HIV-infected patients than when using the D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models. This could have consequences regarding overtreatment, drug-related adverse events and drug-drug interactions. © 2015 British HIV Association.

Polygenic risk score in postmortem diagnosed sporadic early-onset Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Chaudhury, Sultan; Patel, Tulsi; Barber, Imelda S; Guetta-Baranes, Tamar; Brookes, Keeley J; Chappell, Sally; Turton, James; Guerreiro, Rita; Bras, Jose; Hernandez, Dena; Singleton, Andrew; Hardy, John; Mann, David; Morgan, Kevin

2018-02-01

Sporadic early-onset Alzheimer's disease (sEOAD) exhibits the symptoms of late-onset Alzheimer's disease but lacks the familial aspect of the early-onset familial form. The genetics of Alzheimer's disease (AD) identifies APOEε4 to be the greatest risk factor; however, it is a complex disease involving both environmental risk factors and multiple genetic loci. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) accumulate the total risk of a phenotype in an individual based on variants present in their genome. We determined whether sEOAD cases had a higher PRS compared to controls. A cohort of sEOAD cases was genotyped on the NeuroX array, and PRSs were generated using PRSice. The target data set consisted of 408 sEOAD cases and 436 controls. The base data set was collated by the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project consortium, with association data from 17,008 late-onset Alzheimer's disease cases and 37,154 controls, which can be used for identifying sEOAD cases due to having shared phenotype. PRSs were generated using all common single nucleotide polymorphisms between the base and target data set, PRS were also generated using only single nucleotide polymorphisms within a 500 kb region surrounding the APOE gene. Sex and number of APOE ε2 or ε4 alleles were used as variables for logistic regression and combined with PRS. The results show that PRS is higher on average in sEOAD cases than controls, although there is still overlap among the whole cohort. Predictive ability of identifying cases and controls using PRSice was calculated with 72.9% accuracy, greater than the APOE locus alone (65.2%). Predictive ability was further improved with logistic regression, identifying cases and controls with 75.5% accuracy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Army Physical Fitness Test scores predict coronary heart disease risk in Army National Guard soldiers.

PubMed

Talbot, Laura A; Weinstein, Ali A; Fleg, Jerome L

2009-03-01

An increased rate of cardiac symptoms at combat theater hospitals brings concerns about the predeployment health of Army National Guard (ARNG) soldiers on the basis of older age, lower fitness level, and sedentary lifestyle than active duty troops. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical fitness, reported physical activity (PA), and coronary risk factors to calculated 10-year hard coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in 136 ARNG soldiers, aged 18-53 years, who failed the 2-mile run of the Army Physical Fitness Test (APFT). The APFT score, derived from a composite of 2-mile run time, sit-ups, and push-ups, related inversely to 10-year CHD risk (r = -0.23, p < 0.01) but no relationship with CHD risk was observed for PA. APFT scores were positively associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and inversely with triglycerides, total cholesterol:HDL ratio, diastolic blood pressure, and body mass index (BMI). No relationship existed between PA and any of the CHD risk factors. We conclude that a higher APFT score is associated with a healthier CHD risk factor profile and is a predictor of better predeployment cardiovascular health.

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

PubMed Central

Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

2016-01-01

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

Psoriasis and cardiovascular risk. Assessment by different cardiovascular risk scores.

PubMed

Fernández-Torres, R; Pita-Fernández, S; Fonseca, E

2013-12-01

Psoriasis is an inflammatory disease associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, very few studies determine cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham risk score or other indices more appropriate for countries with lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. To determine multiple cardiovascular risk scores in psoriasis patients, the relation between cardiovascular risk and psoriasis features and to compare our results with those in the literature. We assessed demographic data, smoking status, psoriasis features, blood pressure and analytical data. Cardiovascular risk was determined by means of Framingham, SCORE, DORICA and REGICOR scores. A total of 395 patients (59.7% men and 40.3% women) aged 18-86 years were included. The proportion of patients at intermediate and high risk of suffering a major cardiovascular event in the next 10 years was 30.5% and 11.4%, respectively, based on Framingham risk score; 26.9% and 2.2% according to DORICA and 6.8% and 0% using REGICOR score. According to the SCORE index, 22.1% of patients had a high risk of death due to a cardiovascular event over the next 10 years. Cardiovascular risk was not related to psoriasis characteristics, except for the Framingham index, with higher risk in patients with more severe psoriasis (P = 0.032). A considerable proportion of patients had intermediate or high cardiovascular risk, without relevant relationship with psoriasis characteristics and treatment schedules. Therefore, systematic evaluation of cardiovascular risk scores in all psoriasis patients could be useful to identify those with increased cardiovascular risk, subsidiary of lifestyle changes or therapeutic interventions. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology © 2012 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

Calcium score of coronary artery stratifies the risk of obstructive coronary artery diseases.

PubMed

Ibrahim, O; Oteh, M; Anwar, I R; Che Hassan, H H; Choor, C K; Hamzaini, A H; Rahman, M M

2013-01-01

Coronary heart disease is a major health problem in Malaysia with high morbidity and mortality. Common primary screening tool of cardiovascular risk stratification is exercise treadmill test (ETT). This communication is to determine the performance of coronary artery calcium score a new method to stratify the presence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in comparison to traditional ETT in patients having coronary artery diseases. Patients between 30 to 60 years old attended the ETT to screen for ischemic heart disease were recruited for Agatston coronary artery calcium score (CACS) of multi-sliced computed tomography (MSCT). Subsequently all patients underwent a full MSCT coronary angiography. The major determinant was the state of CAD whether obstructive (50% stenosis or more) or non-obstructive (less than 50% stenosis). All patients diagnosed with obstructive CAD on MSCT coronary angiogram were subjected to invasive coronary angiogram (ICA) to confirm the findings and planned the need for revascularization. The CACS was 100% sensitivity and 97.5% specificity in detecting obstructive CAD at the optimal cut-off value of 106.5 and above. The positive predictive value (PPV) at CACS ≥ 106 was 71.4% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was consistent at 100%. Compare to ETT, the CACS discriminative value and diagnostic performance was much better (PPV 71.4% vs. 45.5%), respectively. CACS can be a good diagnostic screening tool in patients suspected of CAD, and particularly within the non-diagnostic ETT subgroup with low to moderate cardiovascular risks.

Coronary Risk Factor Scoring as a Guide for Counseling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleck, R. L.

1971-01-01

A risk factor scoring system for early detection, possible prediction, and counseling to coronary heart disease patients is discussed. Scoring data include dynamic EKG, cholesterol levels, triglycerine content, total lipid level, total phospolipid levels, and electrophoretic patterns. Results indicate such a system is effective in identifying high risk subjects, but that the ability to predict exceeds the ability to prevent heart disease or its complications.

Risk of peripheral artery disease according to a healthy lifestyle score: The PREDIMED study.

PubMed

López-Laguna, Nieves; Martínez-González, Miguel A; Toledo, Estefania; Babio, Nancy; Sorlí, José V; Ros, Emilio; Muñoz, Miguel Ángel; Estruch, Ramon; Lapetra, José; Muñoz-Bravo, Carlos; Fiol, Miquel; Serra-Majem, Lluís; Pintó, Xavier; González, José I; Fitó, Montse; Basora, Josep; Arós, Fernando; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel

2018-05-31

The PREDIMED (PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea) is a multicentre trial analyzed as a prospective cohort study. A total of 7122 participants (aged 55-80 years) at high risk of cardiovascular disease in the PREDIMED trial were recruited in 11 centres in Spain. The prevalence of subjects with type 2 diabetes was 50%. Our objective was to determine the contribution of lifestyle factors to the development of peripheral artery disease (PAD). Incident clinical PAD in relation to a healthy lifestyle 5-point score defined as adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MedDiet), moderate alcohol intake, regular physical activity, normal weight (BMI<25) and non-smoking was measured. Eighty-seven incident PAD cases were diagnosed during a median follow-up of 4.8 years. Compared with participants with 0 or 1 healthy lifestyle factor, the multivariable hazard ratio for PAD was 0.65 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37 to 1.14) for 2 factors, and 0.40 (0.22-0.72) for 3 or more. Moderate alcohol consumption, non-smoking, physical activity and following a MedDiet were significantly inversely associated with PAD whereas no association was found for normal weight (BMI<25 kg/m 2 ). PAD risk monotonically decreased with an increasing number of lifestyle factors, and the greatest reduction was found for a score combining moderate alcohol consumption, MedDiet and physical activity or non-smoking. The multivariable-adjusted population attributable risk percent for the combination of these 4 factors was 80.5% (95% CI: 21.3%-95.1%). Our results demonstrate that a simple healthy lifestyle score is associated with a substantially reduced risk of PAD in a high cardiovascular risk population with a high prevalence (50%) of subjects with type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score and FIB-4 scoring system could identify patients at risk of systemic complications.

PubMed

Takahashi, Yuka; Kurosaki, Masayuki; Tamaki, Nobuharu; Yasui, Yutaka; Hosokawa, Takanori; Tsuchiya, Kaoru; Nakanishi, Hiroyuki; Itakura, Jun; Izumi, Namiki

2015-06-01

To investigate the relation between systemic complications of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-invasive fibrosis scores. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and FIB-4 were measured in 1559 people who underwent a complete medical checkup at our hospital and were followed for more than 3 years. Correlation between these scores and prevalence and new incidence rates of diabetes or cerebral-cardiovascular diseases were analyzed. The 1559 cases were classified into two groups using the low cut-off values of NFS and FIB-4: group 1 (≥low cut-off score with fatty liver) and group 2 (the others). In group 1, the prevalence of diabetes and cerebral-cardiovascular diseases at baseline and additional incidences during the observation period was higher compared with group 2. Diabetes at baseline in group 1 versus group 2 were 31.5% versus 3.1% (NFS, P < 0.0001), 17.0% versus 4.7% (FIB-4, P < 0.0001), and cerebral-cardiovascular diseases at baseline were 7.7% versus 2.3% (NFS, P = 0.002) and 9.0% versus 2.3% (FIB-4, P = 0.0012). New incidences of diabetes were 4.5% versus 1.2% (NFS, P = 0.034) and 3.6% versus 1.2% (FIB-4, P = 0.11), and of cerebral-cardiovascular diseases were 5.0% versus 0.9% (NFS, P = 0.0019) and 5.4% versus 0.9% (FIB-4, P = 0.0034). NFS and FIB-4 are useful to extract cases with high risk of systemic complications of NAFLD in the public. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Endovascular treatment of thoracic disease: patient selection and a proposal of a risk score.

PubMed

Rodrigues Alves, Claudia Maria; da Fonseca, José Honório Palma; de Souza, José Augusto Marcondes; Camargo Carvalho, Antonio Carlos; Buffolo, Enio

2002-04-01

Although selection criteria and subgroup analysis are still in the early developmental stages, endovascular treatment of aortic disease has become an alternative to surgery for many patients. From November 1996 to November 1999, 49 patients were treated with a self-expandable endoprosthesis at our institution. Most patients had acute aortic dissections. Thirteen of these patients did not follow the anatomic selection protocol. We retrospectively analyzed these patients to compare our numerical risk score (which includes clinical and anatomic criteria) between groups with or without success and between groups that followed the anatomic protocol (P) or did not follow the anatomic protocol (E [exception]). Success rates were similar in groups P and E, although mortality rates were higher in group E. Patients from group E had longer procedures and required multiple stents more frequently. The proposed risk score was able to differentiate between groups with or without success, as well as between groups P and E. In order to reduce mortality and morbidity rates, careful selection criteria must be followed when treating patients endovascularly. Although it is time-consuming, using objective criteria can help select patients for endovascular treatment. We propose that patients with a risk score higher than 11 should only undergo percutaneous treatment when they have an unacceptably high surgical risk, and even so only after a detailed discussion of the risks.

Dietary compound score and risk of age-related macular degeneration in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Purpose: Because foods provide many nutrients, which may interact with each other to modify risk for multifactorial diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD), we sought to develop a composite scoring system to summarize the combined effect of multiple dietary nutrients on AMD risk. Th...

The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

PubMed

Carbone, Marco; Sharp, Stephen J; Flack, Steve; Paximadas, Dimitrios; Spiess, Kelly; Adgey, Carolyn; Griffiths, Laura; Lim, Reyna; Trembling, Paul; Williamson, Kate; Wareham, Nick J; Aldersley, Mark; Bathgate, Andrew; Burroughs, Andrew K; Heneghan, Michael A; Neuberger, James M; Thorburn, Douglas; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Cordell, Heather J; Alexander, Graeme J; Jones, David E J; Sandford, Richard N; Mells, George F

2016-03-01

The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of chronic kidney disease progression: moving from single to multiple risk marker response scores.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; Mol, Peter G M; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2015-11-01

There is increased interest in developing surrogate endpoints for clinical trials of chronic kidney disease progression, as the established clinically meaningful endpoint end-stage renal disease requires large and lengthy trials to assess drug efficacy. We describe recent developments in the search for novel surrogate endpoints. Declines in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30% or 40% and albuminuria have been proposed as surrogates for end-stage renal disease. However, changes in eGFR or albuminuria may not be valid under all circumstances as drugs always have effects on multiple renal risk markers. Changes in each of these other 'off-target' risk markers can alter renal risk (either beneficially or adversely), and can thereby confound the relationship between surrogates that are based on single risk markers and renal outcome. Risk algorithms that integrate the short-term drug effects on multiple risk markers to predict drug effects on hard renal outcomes may therefore be more accurate. The validity of these risk algorithms is currently investigated. Given that drugs affect multiple renal risk markers, risk scores that integrate these effects are a promising alternative to using eGFR decline or albuminuria. Proper validation is required before these risk scores can be implemented.

Polygenic hazard scores in preclinical Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Tan, Chin Hong; Hyman, Bradley T; Tan, Jacinth J X; Hess, Christopher P; Dillon, William P; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Besser, Lilah M; Kukull, Walter A; Kauppi, Karolina; McEvoy, Linda K; Andreassen, Ole A; Dale, Anders M; Fan, Chun Chieh; Desikan, Rahul S

2017-09-01

Identifying asymptomatic older individuals at elevated risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of clinical importance. Among 1,081 asymptomatic older adults, a recently validated polygenic hazard score (PHS) significantly predicted time to AD dementia and steeper longitudinal cognitive decline, even after controlling for APOE ɛ4 carrier status. Older individuals in the highest PHS percentiles showed the highest AD incidence rates. PHS predicted longitudinal clinical decline among older individuals with moderate to high Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (amyloid) and Braak (tau) scores at autopsy, even among APOE ɛ4 noncarriers. Beyond APOE, PHS may help identify asymptomatic individuals at highest risk for developing Alzheimer neurodegeneration. Ann Neurol 2017;82:484-488. © 2017 American Neurological Association.

Framingham risk score for estimation of 10-years of cardiovascular diseases risk in patients with metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Jahangiry, Leila; Farhangi, Mahdieh Abbasalizad; Rezaei, Fatemeh

2017-11-13

There are a few studies evaluating the predictive value of Framingham risk score (FRS) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment in patients with metabolic syndrome in Iran. Because of the emerging high prevalence of CVD among Iranian population, it is important to predict its risk among populations with potential predictive tools. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to evaluate the FRS and its determinants in patients with metabolic syndrome. In the current cross-sectional study, 160 patients with metabolic syndrome diagnosed according to the National Cholesterol Education Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III criteria were enrolled. The FRS was calculated using a computer program by a previously suggested algorithm. Totally, 77.5, 16.3, and 6.3% of patients with metabolic syndrome were at low, intermediate, and high risk of CVD according to FRS categorization. The highest prevalence of all of metabolic syndrome components were in low CVD risk according to the FRS grouping (P < 0.05), while the lowest prevalence of these components was in high CVD risk group (P < 0.05). According to multiple logistic regression analysis, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and fasting serum glucose (FSG) were potent determinants of intermediate and high risk CVD risk of FRS scoring compared with low risk group (P < 0.05). In the current study, significant associations between components of metabolic syndrome and different FRS categorization among patients with metabolic syndrome were identified. High SBP and FSG were associated with meaningfully increased risk of CVD compared with other parameters. The study is not a trial; the registration number is not applicable.

Novel risk score of contrast-induced nephropathy after percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Ji, Ling; Su, XiaoFeng; Qin, Wei; Mi, XuHua; Liu, Fei; Tang, XiaoHong; Li, Zi; Yang, LiChuan

2015-08-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a major cause of acute kidney injury. In this study, we established a comprehensive risk score model to assess risk of CIN after PCI procedure, which could be easily used in a clinical environment. A total of 805 PCI patients, divided into analysis cohort (70%) and validation cohort (30%), were enrolled retrospectively in this study. Risk factors for CIN were identified using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression in the analysis cohort. Risk score model was developed based on multiple regression coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of the new risk score system was validated in the validation cohort. Comparisons between the new risk score model and previous reported models were applied. The incidence of post-PCI CIN in the analysis cohort (n = 565) was 12%. Considerably high CIN incidence (50%) was observed in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Age >75, body mass index (BMI) >25, myoglobin level, cardiac function level, hypoalbuminaemia, history of chronic kidney disease (CKD), Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) were identified as independent risk factors of post-PCI CIN. A novel risk score model was established using multivariate regression coefficients, which showed highest sensitivity and specificity (0.917, 95%CI 0.877-0.957) compared with previous models. A new post-PCI CIN risk score model was developed based on a retrospective study of 805 patients. Application of this model might be helpful to predict CIN in patients undergoing PCI procedure. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Clinically Feasible Stratification of 3-Year Chronic Disease Risk in Primary Care: The Mental Health Integration Risk Score.

PubMed

May, Heidi T; Reiss-Brennan, Brenda; Brunisholz, Kimberly D; Horne, Benjamin D

Depression is a common illness that imposes a disproportionately large health burden. Depression is generally associated with a higher prevalence of chronic disease risk factors and may contribute to higher chronic disease risk. This study aimed to create and validate sex-specific Mental Health Integration Risk Scores (MHIRS) that predict 3-year chronic disease diagnosis. MHIRS was created to predict the first diagnosis of any of the 10 chronic diseases in patients completing a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 Depression Survey who were free at baseline from those 10 chronic disease diagnoses. MHIRS used sex-specific weightings of Patient Health Questionnaire 9 results, age, and components of the complete metabolic profile and complete blood count in randomly chosen derivation (70%) and validation (30%) groups. Among females (N = 10,162, age: 48 ± 16), c-statistics for the composite chronic disease end point were 0.746 (0.725, 0.767) for the derivation group and 0.717 (0.682, 0.753) for the validation group, whereas males (N = 4615, age: 48 ± 15) had 0.755 (0.727, 0.783) and 0.742 (0.702, 0.782). In the validation group, MHIRS strata of low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories had hazard ratios (HR) for any 3-year chronic disease diagnosis among females of HR = 3.42 for moderate vs low and HR = 9.75 for high vs low, whereas males had HR = 4.80 and HR = 10.68, respectively (all p < 0.0001). A clinical decision tool comprised by depression severity and common laboratory tests, and MHIRS provides very good stratification of a 3-year chronic disease diagnosis. Designed to be calculated electronically by an electronic health record, MHIRS can be efficiently obtained by clinicians to identify patients at higher chronic disease risk who require further evaluation and more precise clinical management. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The French National Nutrition and Health Program score is associated with nutritional status and risk of major chronic diseases.

PubMed

Estaquio, Carla; Castetbon, Katia; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Bertrais, Sandrine; Deschamps, Valérie; Dauchet, Luc; Péneau, Sandrine; Galan, Pilar; Hercberg, Serge

2008-05-01

Few studies have found that adherence to dietary guidelines reduces the incidence of chronic disease. In 2001, a National Nutrition and Health Program (Program National Nutrition Santé) was implemented in France and included 9 quantified priority nutritional goals involving fruit, vegetable, and nutrient intakes, nutritional status, and physical activity. We developed an index score that includes indicators of these public health objectives and examined the association between this score and the incidence of major chronic diseases in the Supplémentation en Vitamines et Minéraux AntioXydants cohort. Data from middle-aged adults free of major chronic diseases and who provided at least 3 24-h dietary records during the first 2 y of follow-up have been included in the present analysis (n = 4,976). Major chronic disease, documented during the 8-y follow-up period (n = 455), was defined as the combination of cardiovascular disease (n = 131), cancer (n = 261), or death (n = 63), whichever came first. In fully adjusted Cox models, men in the top tertile score compared with those in the lowest one had a 36% lower risk of major chronic diseases (hazard ratio = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.44-0.96). No association was found in women. Healthy diet and lifestyle were associated with a lower risk of chronic diseases, particularly in men, thereby underlying relevance of the French nutritional recommendations.

Genetic predisposition to coronary heart disease and stroke using an additive genetic risk score: a population-based study in Greece

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Objective: To determine the extent to which the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) increases in relation to a genetic risk score (GRS) that additively integrates the influence of high-risk alleles in nine documented single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for CHD, and to examine whether t...

The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

PubMed

Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

2016-02-01

Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

Obesity phenotype and coronary heart disease risk as estimated by the Framingham risk score.

PubMed

Park, Yong Soon; Kim, Jun-Su

2012-03-01

There are conflicting data as to whether general or abdominal obesity is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk. This cross-sectional study involved 4,573 subjects aged 30 to 74 yr who participated in the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 2008. Obesity phenotype was classified by means of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and participants were categorized into 4 groups. Individuals' 10-yr risk of coronary heart diseases (CHD) was determined from the Framingham risk score. Subjects with obese WC had a higher proportion of high risk for CHD compared to the normal WC group, irrespective of BMI level. Relative to subjects with normal BMI/normal WC, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of normal BMI/obese WC group (OR 2.93 [1.70, 5.04] and OR 3.10 [1.49, 6.46]) for CHD risk in male were higher than obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.91 [1.40, 2.61] and OR 1.70 [1.16, 2.47]), whereas the adjusted ORs of obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.94 [1.24, 3.04] and OR 3.92 [1.75, 8.78]) were higher than the others in female. Subjects with obese BMI/normal WC were not significantly associated with 10-yr CHD risk in men (P = 0.449 and P = 0.067) and women (P = 0.702 and P = 0.658). WC is associated with increased CHD risk regardless of the level of BMI. Men with normal BMI and obese WC tend to be associated with CHD risk than those with obese BMI and obese WC.

Genetic risk score and cardiovascular mortality in a southern european population with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Pereira, Andreia; Mendonca, Maria Isabel; Sousa, Ana Célia; Borges, Sofia; Freitas, Sónia; Henriques, Eva; Rodrigues, Mariana; Freitas, Ana Isabel; Guerra, Graça; Ornelas, Ilídio; Pereira, Décio; Brehm, António; Palma Dos Reis, Roberto

2017-06-01

Several genetic risk scores (GRS) have been associated with cardiovascular disease; their role, however, in survival from proven coronary artery disease (CAD) have yielded conflicting results. The objective of this study was to evaluate long-term cardiovascular mortality according to the genetic risk score in a Southern European population with CAD. A cohort of 1464 CAD patients with angiographic proven CAD were followed up prospectively for up to 58.3 (interquartile range: 25.8-88.1) months. Genotyping of 32 single-nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with CAD was performed using oligonucleotides probes marked with fluorescence for each allele. GRS was constructed according to the additive model assuming codominance and categorised using the median (=26). Cox Regression analysis was performed to determine independent multivariate predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves compared high vs low GRS using log-rank test. C-index was done for our population, as a measure of discrimination in survival analysis model. During a mean follow-up of 58.3 months, 156 patients (10.7%) died, 107 (7.3%) of CV causes. High GRS (≥26) was associated with reduced cardiovascular survival. Survival analysis with Cox regression model adjusted for 8 variables showed that high GRS, dyslipidemia, diabetes and 3-vessel disease were independent risk factors for cardiovascular mortality (HR=1.53, P=.037; HR=3.64, P=.012; HR=1.75, P=.004; HR=2.97, P<.0001, respectively). At the end of follow-up, the estimated survival probability was 70.8% for high GRS and 80.8% for low GRS (Log-rank test 5.6; P=.018). C-Index of 0.71 was found when GRS was added to a multivariate survival model of diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, hypertension and 3 vessel disease, stable angina and dual antiplatelet therapy. Besides the classical risk factors management, this work highlights the relevance of the genetic profile in survival from CAD. It is expected that new therapies will

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a web‐based risk score for seven British black and minority ethnic groups

PubMed Central

Brindle, P; May, M; Gill, P; Cappuccio, F; D'Agostino, R; Fischbacher, C; Ebrahim, S

2006-01-01

Objective To recalibrate an existing Framingham risk score to produce a web‐based tool for estimating the 10‐year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in seven British black and minority ethnic groups. Design Risk prediction models were recalibrated against survey data on ethnic group risk factors and disease prevalence compared with the general population. Ethnic‐ and sex‐specific 10‐year risks of CHD and CVD, at the means of the risk factors for each ethnic group, were calculated from the product of the incidence rate in the general population and the prevalence ratios for each ethnic group. Setting Two community‐based surveys. Participants 3778 men and 4544 women, aged 35–54, from the Health Surveys for England 1998 and 1999 and the Wandsworth Heart and Stroke Study. Main outcome measures 10‐year risk of CHD and CVD. Results 10‐year risk of CHD and CVD for non‐smoking people aged 50 years with a systolic blood pressure of 130 mm Hg and a total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio of 4.2 was highest in men for those of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin (CVD risk 12.6% and 12.8%, respectively). CHD risk in men with the same risk factor values was lowest in Caribbeans (2.8%) and CVD risk was lowest in Chinese (5.4%). Women of Pakistani origin were at highest risk and Chinese women at lowest risk for both outcomes with CVD risks of 6.6% and 1.2%, respectively. A web‐based risk calculator (ETHRISK) allows 10‐year risks to be estimated in routine primary care settings for relevant risk factor and ethnic group combinations. Conclusions In the absence of cohort studies in the UK that include significant numbers of black and minority ethnic groups, this risk score provides a pragmatic solution to including people from diverse ethnic backgrounds in the primary prevention of CVD. PMID:16762981

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts

PubMed Central

de las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine

2016-01-01

Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994–1995) and S4 (1999–2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000–2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany. PMID:27732641

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts.

PubMed

de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

Demographic determinants of risk, colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease.

PubMed

Golder, Mark; Ster, Irina Chis; Babu, Pratusha; Sharma, Amita; Bayat, Muhammad; Farah, Abdulkadir

2011-02-28

To investigate associations between ethnicity, age and sex and the risk, colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease (DD). Barium enemas were examined in 1000 patients: 410 male, 590 female; 760 whites, 62 Asians, 44 black africans (BAs), and 134 other blacks (OBs). Risks and diverticula density of left-sided DD (LSDD) and right-sided-component DD (RSCDD = right-sided DD + right and left DD + Pan-DD) were compared using logistic regression. Four hundred and forty-seven patients had DD (322 LSDD and 125 RSCDD). Adjusted risks: (1) LSDD: each year increase in age increased the odds by 6% (95% CI: 5-8, SE: 0.8%, P < 0.001); Asians: odds ratio (OR): 0.23 (95% CI: 0.10-0.53, SE: 0.1, P ≤ 0.001) and OBs: OR: 0.25 (95% CI: 0.14-0.43, SE: 0.07, P ≤ 0.001) appeared protected vs Whites; (2) RSCDD: each year increase in age increased the odds by 4% (95% CI: 2-6, SE: 1%, P < 0.001); females were 0.60 times (95% CI: 0.40-0.90, SE: 0.12, P = 0.01) less likely than males to have RSCDD; BAs were 3.51 times (95% CI: 1.70-7.24, SE: 1.30, P < 0.001) more likely than Whites to have RSCDD; and (3) DD density scores: each year increase in age increased the odds of high-density scores by 4% (95% CI: 1-6, SE: 1%, P < 0.001); RSCDD was 2.77 times (95% CI: 1.39-3.32, SE: 0.67, P < 0.001) more likely to be of high density than LSDD. No further significant differences were found in the adjusted models. Right colonic DD might be more common and has higher diverticula density in the west than previously reported. BAs appear predisposed to DD, whereas other ethnic differences appear conserved following migration.

Demographic determinants of risk, colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease

PubMed Central

Golder, Mark; Ster, Irina Chis; Babu, Pratusha; Sharma, Amita; Bayat, Muhammad; Farah, Abdulkadir

2011-01-01

AIM: To investigate associations between ethnicity, age and sex and the risk, colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease (DD). METHODS: Barium enemas were examined in 1000 patients: 410 male, 590 female; 760 whites, 62 Asians, 44 black africans (BAs), and 134 other blacks (OBs). Risks and diverticula density of left-sided DD (LSDD) and right-sided-component DD (RSCDD = right-sided DD + right and left DD + Pan-DD) were compared using logistic regression. RESULTS: Four hundred and forty-seven patients had DD (322 LSDD and 125 RSCDD). Adjusted risks: (1) LSDD: each year increase in age increased the odds by 6% (95% CI: 5-8, SE: 0.8%, P < 0.001); Asians: odds ratio (OR): 0.23 (95% CI: 0.10-0.53, SE: 0.1, P ≤ 0.001) and OBs: OR: 0.25 (95% CI: 0.14-0.43, SE: 0.07, P ≤ 0.001) appeared protected vs Whites; (2) RSCDD: each year increase in age increased the odds by 4% (95% CI: 2-6, SE: 1%, P < 0.001); females were 0.60 times (95% CI: 0.40-0.90, SE: 0.12, P = 0.01) less likely than males to have RSCDD; BAs were 3.51 times (95% CI: 1.70-7.24, SE: 1.30, P < 0.001) more likely than Whites to have RSCDD; and (3) DD density scores: each year increase in age increased the odds of high-density scores by 4% (95% CI: 1-6, SE: 1%, P < 0.001); RSCDD was 2.77 times (95% CI: 1.39-3.32, SE: 0.67, P < 0.001) more likely to be of high density than LSDD. No further significant differences were found in the adjusted models. CONCLUSION: Right colonic DD might be more common and has higher diverticula density in the west than previously reported. BAs appear predisposed to DD, whereas other ethnic differences appear conserved following migration. PMID:21448352

Predicting Long-term Ischemic Events Using Routine Clinical Parameters in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: The OPT-CAD Risk Score.

PubMed

Han, Yaling; Chen, Jiyan; Qiu, Miaohan; Li, Yi; Li, Jing; Feng, Yingqing; Qiu, Jian; Meng, Liang; Sun, Yihong; Tao, Guizhou; Wu, Zhaohui; Yang, Chunyu; Guo, Jincheng; Pu, Kui; Chen, Shaoliang; Wang, Xiaozeng

2018-06-05

The prognosis of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) at hospital discharge was constantly varying, and post-discharge risk of ischemic events remain a concern. However, risk prediction tools to identify risk of ischemia for these patients has not yet been reported. We sought to develop a scoring system for predicting long-term ischemic events in CAD patients receiving antiplatelet therapy that would be beneficial in appropriate personalized decision-making for these patients. In this prospective Optimal antiPlatelet Therapy for Chinese patients with Coronary Artery Disease (OPT-CAD, NCT01735305) registry, a total of 14,032 patients with CAD receiving at least one kind of antiplatelet agent were enrolled from 107 centers across China, from January 2012 to March 2014. The risk scoring system was developed in a derivation cohort (enrolled initially 10,000 patients in the database) using a logistic regression model and was subsequently tested in a validation cohort (the last 4,032 patients). Points in risk score was assigned based on the multivariable odds ratio of each factor. Ischemic events were defined as the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction or stroke. Ischemic events occurred in 342 (3.4%) patients in the derivation cohort and 160 (4.0%) patients in the validation cohort during 1-year follow-up. The OPT-CAD score, ranging from 0-257 points, consist of 10 independent risk factors, including age (0-71 points), heart rates (0-36 points), hypertension (0-20 points), prior myocardial infarction (16 points), prior stroke (16 points), renal insufficient (21 points), anemia (19 points), low ejection fraction (22 points), positive cardiac troponin (23 points) and ST-segment deviation (13 points). In predicting 1-year ischemic events, the area under receiver operating characteristics curve were 0.73 and 0.72 in derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The incidences of ischemic events in low- (0-90 points), medium- (91-150 points) and

Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

2014-01-01

In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

Genetic Association and Risk Scores in a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Meta-analysis of 16,707 Subjects.

PubMed

Busch, Robert; Hobbs, Brian D; Zhou, Jin; Castaldi, Peter J; McGeachie, Michael J; Hardin, Megan E; Hawrylkiewicz, Iwona; Sliwinski, Pawel; Yim, Jae-Joon; Kim, Woo Jin; Kim, Deog K; Agusti, Alvar; Make, Barry J; Crapo, James D; Calverley, Peter M; Donner, Claudio F; Lomas, David A; Wouters, Emiel F; Vestbo, Jørgen; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Bakke, Per; Gulsvik, Amund; Litonjua, Augusto A; Sparrow, David; Paré, Peter D; Levy, Robert D; Rennard, Stephen I; Beaty, Terri H; Hokanson, John; Silverman, Edwin K; Cho, Michael H

2017-07-01

The heritability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be fully explained by recognized genetic risk factors identified as achieving genome-wide significance. In addition, the combined contribution of genetic variation to COPD risk has not been fully explored. We sought to determine: (1) whether studies of variants from previous studies of COPD or lung function in a larger sample could identify additional associated variants, particularly for severe COPD; and (2) the impact of genetic risk scores on COPD. We genotyped 3,346 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,588 cases (1,803 severe COPD) and 1,782 control subjects from four cohorts, and performed association testing with COPD, combining these results with existing genotyping data from 6,633 cases (3,497 severe COPD) and 5,704 control subjects. In addition, we developed genetic risk scores from SNPs associated with lung function and COPD and tested their discriminatory power for COPD-related measures. We identified significant associations between SNPs near PPIC (P = 1.28 × 10 -8 ) and PPP4R4/SERPINA1 (P = 1.01 × 10 -8 ) and severe COPD; the latter association may be driven by recognized variants in SERPINA1. Genetic risk scores based on SNPs previously associated with COPD and lung function had a modest ability to discriminate COPD (area under the curve, ∼0.6), and accounted for a mean 0.9-1.9% lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted for each additional risk allele. In a large genetic association analysis, we identified associations with severe COPD near PPIC and SERPINA1. A risk score based on combining genetic variants had modest, but significant, effects on risk of COPD and lung function.

Prediction for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance by Using Weighted Genetic Risk Score Identified From Genome-Wide Association Study in Kawasaki Disease.

PubMed

Kuo, Ho-Chang; Wong, Henry Sung-Ching; Chang, Wei-Pin; Chen, Ben-Kuen; Wu, Mei-Shin; Yang, Kuender D; Hsieh, Kai-Sheng; Hsu, Yu-Wen; Liu, Shih-Feng; Liu, Xiao; Chang, Wei-Chiao

2017-10-01

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is the treatment of choice in Kawasaki disease (KD). IVIG is used to prevent cardiovascular complications related to KD. However, a proportion of KD patients have persistent fever after IVIG treatment and are defined as IVIG resistant. To develop a risk scoring system based on genetic markers to predict IVIG responsiveness in KD patients, a total of 150 KD patients (126 IVIG responders and 24 IVIG nonresponders) were recruited for this study. A genome-wide association analysis was performed to compare the 2 groups and identified risk alleles for IVIG resistance. A weighted genetic risk score was calculated by the natural log of the odds ratio multiplied by the number of risk alleles. Eleven single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified by genome-wide association study. The KD patients were categorized into 3 groups based on their calculated weighted genetic risk score. Results indicated a significant association between weighted genetic risk score (groups 3 and 4 versus group 1) and the response to IVIG (Fisher's exact P value 4.518×10 - 03 and 8.224×10 - 10 , respectively). This is the first weighted genetic risk score study based on a genome-wide association study in KD. The predictive model integrated the additive effects of all 11 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to provide a prediction of the responsiveness to IVIG. © 2017 The Authors.

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score.

PubMed

Szulkin, Robert; Whitington, Thomas; Eklund, Martin; Aly, Markus; Eeles, Rosalind A; Easton, Douglas; Kote-Jarai, Z Sofia; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Benlloch, Sara; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham G; Southey, Melissa C; Fitzgerald, Liesel M; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Haiman, Christopher A; Schleutker, Johanna; Wahlfors, Tiina; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Key, Tim J; Travis, Ruth C; Neal, David E; Donovan, Jenny L; Hamdy, Freddie C; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L; Thibodeau, Stephen N; McDonnell, Shannon K; Schaid, Daniel J; Maier, Christiane; Vogel, Walther; Luedeke, Manuel; Herkommer, Kathleen; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Lubiński, Jan; Kluźniak, Wojciech; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Butterbach, Katja; Stegmaier, Christa; Park, Jong Y; Sellers, Thomas; Lin, Hui-Yi; Lim, Hui-Yi; Slavov, Chavdar; Kaneva, Radka; Mitev, Vanio; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith A; Spurdle, Amanda; Teixeira, Manuel R; Paulo, Paula; Maia, Sofia; Pandha, Hardev; Michael, Agnieszka; Kierzek, Andrzej; Gronberg, Henrik; Wiklund, Fredrik

2015-09-01

Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multifactorial disease risk calculator: Risk prediction for multifactorial disease pedigrees.

PubMed

Campbell, Desmond D; Li, Yiming; Sham, Pak C

2018-03-01

Construction of multifactorial disease models from epidemiological findings and their application to disease pedigrees for risk prediction is nontrivial for all but the simplest of cases. Multifactorial Disease Risk Calculator is a web tool facilitating this. It provides a user-friendly interface, extending a reported methodology based on a liability-threshold model. Multifactorial disease models incorporating all the following features in combination are handled: quantitative risk factors (including polygenic scores), categorical risk factors (including major genetic risk loci), stratified age of onset curves, and the partition of the population variance in disease liability into genetic, shared, and unique environment effects. It allows the application of such models to disease pedigrees. Pedigree-related outputs are (i) individual disease risk for pedigree members, (ii) n year risk for unaffected pedigree members, and (iii) the disease pedigree's joint liability distribution. Risk prediction for each pedigree member is based on using the constructed disease model to appropriately weigh evidence on disease risk available from personal attributes and family history. Evidence is used to construct the disease pedigree's joint liability distribution. From this, lifetime and n year risk can be predicted. Example disease models and pedigrees are provided at the website and are used in accompanying tutorials to illustrate the features available. The website is built on an R package which provides the functionality for pedigree validation, disease model construction, and risk prediction. Website: http://grass.cgs.hku.hk:3838/mdrc/current. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Evaluation of polygenic risk scores for predicting breast and prostate cancer risk.

PubMed

Machiela, Mitchell J; Chen, Chia-Yen; Chen, Constance; Chanock, Stephen J; Hunter, David J; Kraft, Peter

2011-09-01

Recently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been shown to be associated with certain complex diseases. The approach has been based on the contribution of counting multiple alleles associated with disease across independent loci, without requiring compelling evidence that every locus had already achieved definitive genome-wide statistical significance. Whether PRS assist in the prediction of risk of common cancers is unknown. We built PRS from lists of genetic markers prioritized by their association with breast cancer (BCa) or prostate cancer (PCa) in a training data set and evaluated whether these scores could improve current genetic prediction of these specific cancers in independent test samples. We used genome-wide association data on 1,145 BCa cases and 1,142 controls from the Nurses' Health Study and 1,164 PCa cases and 1,113 controls from the Prostate Lung Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Ten-fold cross validation was used to build and evaluate PRS with 10 to 60,000 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). For both BCa and PCa, the models that included only published risk alleles maximized the cross-validation estimate of the area under the ROC curve (0.53 for breast and 0.57 for prostate). We found no significant evidence that PRS using common variants improved risk prediction for BCa and PCa over replicated SNP scores. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

PubMed

Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance of the disease risk score in a cohort study with policy-induced selection bias.

PubMed

Tadrous, Mina; Mamdani, Muhammad M; Juurlink, David N; Krahn, Murray D; Lévesque, Linda E; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2015-11-01

To examine the performance of the disease risk score (DRS) in a cohort study with evidence of policy-induced selection bias. We examined two cohorts of new users of bisphosphonates. Estimates for 1-year hip fracture rates between agents using DRS, exposure propensity scores and traditional multivariable analysis were compared. The results for the cohort with no evidence of policy-induced selection bias showed little variation across analyses (-4.1-2.0%). Analysis of the cohort with evidence of policy-induced selection bias showed greater variation (-13.5-8.1%), with the greatest difference seen with DRS analyses. Our findings suggest that caution may be warranted when using DRS methods in cohort studies with policy-induced selection bias, further research is needed.

The association between creatinine versus cystatin C-based eGFR and cardiovascular risk in children with chronic kidney disease using a modified PDAY risk score.

PubMed

Sharma, Sheena; Denburg, Michelle R; Furth, Susan L

2017-08-01

Children with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have a high prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors which may contribute to the development of cardiovascular events in adulthood. Among adults with CKD, cystatin C-based estimates of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) demonstrate a stronger predictive value for cardiovascular events than creatinine-based eGFR. The PDAY (Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth) risk score is a validated tool used to estimate the probability of advanced coronary atherosclerotic lesions in young adults. To assess the association between cystatin C-based versus creatinine-based eGFR (eGFR cystatin C and eGFR creatinine, respectively) and cardiovascular risk using a modified PDAY risk score as a proxy for CVD in children and young adults. We performed a cross-sectional study of 71 participants with CKD [median age 15.5 years; inter-quartile range (IQR) 13, 17], and 33 healthy controls (median age 15.1 years; IQR 13, 17). eGFR was calculated using age-appropriate creatinine- and cystatin C-based formulas. Median eGFR creatinine and eGFR cystatin C for CKD participants were 50 (IQR 30, 75) and 53 (32, 74) mL/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively. For the healthy controls, median eGFR creatinine and eGFR cystatin were 112 (IQR 85, 128) and 106 mL/min/1.73m 2 (95, 123) mL/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively. A modified PDAY risk score was calculated based on sex, age, serum lipoprotein concentrations, obesity, smoking status, hypertension, and hyperglycemia. Modified PDAY scores ranged from -2 to 20. The Spearman's correlations of eGFR creatinine and eGFR cystatin C with coronary artery PDAY scores were -0.23 (p = 0.02) and -0.28 (p = 0.004), respectively. Ordinal logistic regression also showed a similar association of higher eGFR creatinine and higher eGFR cystatin C with lower PDAY scores. When stratified by age <18 or ≥18 years, the correlations of eGFR creatinine and eGFR cystatin C with PDAY score were modest and similar in

Cardiovascular disease risk profiles among 'healthy' siblings of patients with early-onset cardiovascular disease: application of the new SCORE system.

PubMed

Horan, Paul G; Kamaruddin, Muhammad S; Moore, Michael J; McCarty, David; Spence, Mark S; McGlinchey, Paul G; Murphy, Gillian; Jardine, Tracy C L; Patterson, Chris C; McKeown, Pascal P

2007-08-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurs more frequently in individuals with a family history of premature CVD. Within families the demographics of CVD are poorly described. We examined the risk estimation based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) system and the Joint British Guidelines (JBG) for older unaffected siblings of patients with premature CVD (onset SCORE system, when projected to age 60 years, 181 men (71.3%) and 67 women (20.0%) would be eligible for risk factor modification. Using JBG with a 10-year risk of 20% or greater, 42 men (16.5%) and four women (1.2%) would be targeted. Large numbers of these asymptomatic individuals meet both European and British guidelines for the primary prevention of CVD and should be targeted for risk factor modification. The prevalence of individuals defined as eligible for treatment is much higher when using the SCORE system.

Validation of the pooled cohort risk score in an Asian population - a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2014-11-20

The Pooled Cohort Risk Equation was introduced by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) 2013 in their Blood Cholesterol Guideline to estimate the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. However, absence of Asian ethnicity in the contemporary cohorts and limited studies to examine the use of the risk score limit the applicability of the equation in an Asian population. This study examines the validity of the pooled cohort risk score in a primary care setting and compares the cardiovascular risk using both the pooled cohort risk score and the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk score. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of randomly selected patients aged 40-79 years. Baseline demographic data, co-morbidities and cardiovascular (CV) risk parameters were captured from patient records in 1998. Pooled cohort risk score and Framingham General CVD risk score for each patient were computed. All ASCVD events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease (CHD) death, fatal and nonfatal stroke) occurring from 1998-2007 were recorded. A total of 922 patients were studied. In 1998, mean age was 57.5 ± 8.8 years with 66.7% female. There were 47% diabetic patients and 59.9% patients receiving anti-hypertensive treatment. More than 98% of patients with pooled cohort risk score ≥7.5% had FRS >10%. A total of 45 CVD events occurred, 22 (7.2%) in males and 23 (3.7%) in females. The median pooled cohort risk score for the population was 10.1 (IQR 4.7-20.6) while the actual ASCVD events that occurred was 4.9% (45/922). Our study showed moderate discrimination with AUC of 0.63. There was good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2 = 12.6, P = 0.12. The pooled cohort risk score appears to overestimate CV risk but this apparent over-prediction could be a result of treatment. In the absence of a validated score in an untreated population, the pooled cohort risk score appears to be

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

The ability of the 2013 ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores

PubMed Central

Kawai, Vivian K.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Solus, Joseph F.; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C. Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is underestimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS). We hypothesized that the 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds risk score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Methods Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA score we identified 34 patients with high CAC (≥ 300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS and the ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. Results All three risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P values <0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the three scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA 41%) (P=0.233). The c-statistics for the FRS, RRS and ACC/AHA risk scores predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. Conclusions The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC into a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. PMID:25371313

Genetic assessment of age-associated Alzheimer disease risk: Development and validation of a polygenic hazard score.

PubMed

Desikan, Rahul S; Fan, Chun Chieh; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J; Cabral, Howard J; Cupples, L Adrienne; Thompson, Wesley K; Besser, Lilah; Kukull, Walter A; Holland, Dominic; Chen, Chi-Hua; Brewer, James B; Karow, David S; Kauppi, Karolina; Witoelar, Aree; Karch, Celeste M; Bonham, Luke W; Yokoyama, Jennifer S; Rosen, Howard J; Miller, Bruce L; Dillon, William P; Wilson, David M; Hess, Christopher P; Pericak-Vance, Margaret; Haines, Jonathan L; Farrer, Lindsay A; Mayeux, Richard; Hardy, John; Goate, Alison M; Hyman, Bradley T; Schellenberg, Gerard D; McEvoy, Linda K; Andreassen, Ole A; Dale, Anders M

2017-03-01

Identifying individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of utmost importance. Although genetic studies have identified AD-associated SNPs in APOE and other genes, genetic information has not been integrated into an epidemiological framework for risk prediction. Using genotype data from 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP Stage 1), we identified AD-associated SNPs (at p < 10-5). We then integrated these AD-associated SNPs into a Cox proportional hazard model using genotype data from a subset of 6,409 AD patients and 9,386 older controls from Phase 1 of the Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC), providing a polygenic hazard score (PHS) for each participant. By combining population-based incidence rates and the genotype-derived PHS for each individual, we derived estimates of instantaneous risk for developing AD, based on genotype and age, and tested replication in multiple independent cohorts (ADGC Phase 2, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer's Disease Center [NIA ADC], and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], total n = 20,680). Within the ADGC Phase 1 cohort, individuals in the highest PHS quartile developed AD at a considerably lower age and had the highest yearly AD incidence rate. Among APOE ε3/3 individuals, the PHS modified expected age of AD onset by more than 10 y between the lowest and highest deciles (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% CI 2.62-4.24, p = 1.0 × 10-22). In independent cohorts, the PHS strongly predicted empirical age of AD onset (ADGC Phase 2, r = 0.90, p = 1.1 × 10-26) and longitudinal progression from normal aging to AD (NIA ADC, Cochran-Armitage trend test, p = 1.5 × 10-10), and was associated with neuropathology (NIA ADC, Braak stage of neurofibrillary tangles, p = 3.9 × 10-6, and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease score for neuritic plaques, p = 6.8 × 10-6) and in vivo markers of AD neurodegeneration (ADNI, volume loss

Skin autofluorescence as proxy of tissue AGE accumulation is dissociated from SCORE cardiovascular risk score, and remains so after 3 years.

PubMed

Tiessen, Ans H; Jager, Willemein; ter Bogt, Nancy C W; Beltman, Frank W; van der Meer, Klaas; Broer, Jan; Smit, Andries J

2014-01-01

Skin autofluorescence (SAF), as a proxy of AGE accumulation, is predictive of cardiovascular (CVD) complications in i.a. type 2 diabetes mellitus and renal failure, independently of most conventional CVD risk factors. The present exploratory substudy of the Groningen Overweight and Lifestyle (GOAL)-project addresses whether SAF is related to Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk estimation (% 10-year CVD-mortality risk) in overweight/obese persons in primary care, without diabetes/renal disease, and if after 3-year treatment of risk factors (change in, Δ) SAF is related to ΔSCORE. In a sample of 65 participants from the GOAL study, with a body mass index (BMI) >25-40 kg/m2, hypertension and/or dyslipidemia, but without diabetes/renal disease, SAF and CVD risk factors were measured at baseline, and after 3 years of lifestyle and pharmaceutical treatment. At baseline, the mean SCORE risk estimation was 3.1±2.6%, mean SAF 2.04±0.5AU. In multivariate analysis SAF was strongly related to age, but not to other risk factors/SCORE. After 3 years ΔSAF was 0.34±0.45 AU (p<0.001). ΔSAF was negatively related to Δbodyweight but not to ΔSCORE%, or its components. At follow-up, SAF was higher in 11 patients with a history of CVD compared to 54 persons without CVD (p=0.002). Baseline and 3-year-Δ SAF are not related to (Δ)SCORE, or its components, except age, in the studied population. ΔSAF was negatively related to Δweight. As 3-year SAF was higher in persons with CVD, these results support a larger study on SAF to assess its contribution to conventional risk factors/SCORE in predicting CVD in overweight persons with low-intermediate cardiovascular risk.

Disease risk score as a confounder summary method: systematic review and recommendations.

PubMed

Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2013-02-01

To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

PubMed

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Risk scores for the development of venous thromboembolism in ambulatory patients and in patients hospitalized for acute medical disease].

PubMed

Junod, A

2015-10-28

The recognition of an increased risk of VTE following surgery has initiated a similar investigation in: 1) Ambulatory subjects. In this group, the Qthrombosis score has identified 8 to 11 risk factors. The incidence of VTE is of the order of 0,15%/year. 2) The patients admitted to hospital for an acute medical disease. Nine scores are available for analysis. Results are difficult to interpret because of confusing factors: the inclusion of symptomatic VTE only or both symptomatic and asymptomatic VTE; the uncontrolled prescription of thromboprophylaxis. VTE incidence over 3 months varies between 15 and 0,5%, but is around 1% in the most recent studies. New studies, with a more rigorous methodological approach, are needed.

Prediction of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: performance of original and adapted SCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Arts, E E A; Popa, C D; Den Broeder, A A; Donders, R; Sandoo, A; Toms, T; Rollefstad, S; Ikdahl, E; Semb, A G; Kitas, G D; Van Riel, P L C M; Fransen, J

2016-04-01

Predictive performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators appears suboptimal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A disease-specific CVD risk algorithm may improve CVD risk prediction in RA. The objectives of this study are to adapt the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm with determinants of CVD risk in RA and to assess the accuracy of CVD risk prediction calculated with the adapted SCORE algorithm. Data from the Nijmegen early RA inception cohort were used. The primary outcome was first CVD events. The SCORE algorithm was recalibrated by reweighing included traditional CVD risk factors and adapted by adding other potential predictors of CVD. Predictive performance of the recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms was assessed and the adapted SCORE was externally validated. Of the 1016 included patients with RA, 103 patients experienced a CVD event. Discriminatory ability was comparable across the original, recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that all three algorithms provided poor model fit (p<0.05) for the Nijmegen and external validation cohort. The adapted SCORE algorithm mainly improves CVD risk estimation in non-event cases and does not show a clear advantage in reclassifying patients with RA who develop CVD (event cases) into more appropriate risk groups. This study demonstrates for the first time that adaptations of the SCORE algorithm do not provide sufficient improvement in risk prediction of future CVD in RA to serve as an appropriate alternative to the original SCORE. Risk assessment using the original SCORE algorithm may underestimate CVD risk in patients with RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Cancer risk associated with chronic diseases and disease markers: prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Tu, Huakang; Wen, Chi Pang; Tsai, Shan Pou; Chow, Wong-Ho; Wen, Christopher; Ye, Yuanqing; Zhao, Hua; Tsai, Min Kuang; Huang, Maosheng; Dinney, Colin P; Tsao, Chwen Keng

2018-01-01

Abstract Objectives To assess the independent and joint associations of major chronic diseases and disease markers with cancer risk and to explore the benefit of physical activity in reducing the cancer risk associated with chronic diseases and disease markers. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Standard medical screening program in Taiwan. Participants 405 878 participants, for whom cardiovascular disease markers (blood pressure, total cholesterol, and heart rate), diabetes, chronic kidney disease markers (proteinuria and glomerular filtration rate), pulmonary disease, and gouty arthritis marker (uric acid) were measured or diagnosed according to standard methods, were followed for an average of 8.7 years. Main outcome measures Cancer incidence and cancer mortality. Results A statistically significantly increased risk of incident cancer was observed for the eight diseases and markers individually (except blood pressure and pulmonary disease), with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.07 to 1.44. All eight diseases and markers were statistically significantly associated with risk of cancer death, with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.12 to 1.70. Chronic disease risk scores summarizing the eight diseases and markers were positively associated with cancer risk in a dose-response manner, with the highest scores associated with a 2.21-fold (95% confidence interval 1.77-fold to 2.75-fold) and 4.00-fold (2.84-fold to 5.63-fold) higher cancer incidence and cancer mortality, respectively. High chronic disease risk scores were associated with substantial years of life lost, and the highest scores were associated with 13.3 years of life lost in men and 15.9 years of life lost in women. The population attributable fractions of cancer incidence or cancer mortality from the eight chronic diseases and markers together were comparable to those from five major lifestyle factors combined (cancer incidence: 20.5% v 24.8%; cancer mortality: 38.9% v 39.7%). Among

Prognostic Value of Risk Score and Urinary Markers in Idiopathic Membranous Nephropathy

PubMed Central

Hofstra, Julia M.; Wetzels, Jack F.M.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. Design, setting, participants, & measurements One hundred four patients with biopsy-proven idiopathic membranous nephropathy who presented between 1995 and 2008 with a well-preserved kidney function and nephrotic range proteinuria were included. Urinary β2-microglobulin and α1-microglobulin measurements were obtained by timed standardized measurements, and the Toronto Risk Score was calculated using data obtained from medical records. The endpoint was progression, which was defined as an increase in serum creatinine>50% or >25% with a concentration>135 μmol/L. Results Forty-nine patients showed progression. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval=0.69–0.88) for the risk score versus 0.80 (0.71–0.89) and 0.79 (0.71–0.88) for urinary β2- and α1-microglobulin, respectively. Differences were not significant. Persistent proteinuria did not add accuracy to the Toronto Risk Score. Conversely, its accuracy was not reduced when data from the first 6 months of follow-up were used. Furthermore, a score based on GFR estimated with the six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, calculated in the first 6 months of follow-up, gave an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (0.74–0.92), which was not statistically different from other markers. Conclusions The prognostic accuracies of the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins were not significantly different. The risk score can be calculated within 6 months of diagnosis, and a simplified risk score using estimated GFR–Modification of Diet in Renal Disease may be sufficient. PMID:22595828

Subclinical cardiovascular disease assessment and its relationship with cardiovascular risk SCORE in a healthy adult population: A cross-sectional community-based study.

PubMed

Mitu, Ovidiu; Roca, Mihai; Floria, Mariana; Petris, Antoniu Octavian; Graur, Mariana; Mitu, Florin

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship and the accuracy of SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project) risk correlated to multiple methods for determining subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a healthy population. This cross-sectional study included 120 completely asymptomatic subjects, with an age range 35-75 years, and randomly selected from the general population. The individuals were evaluated clinically and biochemical, and the SCORE risk was computed. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by various methods: carotid ultrasound for intima-media thickness (cIMT) and plaque detection; aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV); echocardiography - left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and aortic atheromatosis (AA); ankle-brachial index (ABI). SCORE mean value was 2.95±2.71, with 76% of subjects having SCORE <5. Sixty-four percent of all subjects have had increased subclinical CVD changes, and SCORE risk score was correlated positively with all markers, except for ABI. In the multivariate analysis, increased cIMT and aPWV were significantly associated with high value of SCORE risk (OR 4.14, 95% CI: 1.42-12.15, p=0.009; respectively OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.01-1.96, p=0.039). A positive linear relationship was observed between 3 territories of subclinical CVD (cIMT, LVMI, aPWV) and SCORE risk (p<0.0001). There was evidence of subclinical CVD in 60% of subjects with a SCORE value <5. As most subjects with a SCORE value <5 have subclinical CVD abnormalities, a more tailored subclinical CVD primary prevention program should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Smoking cessation and the risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes predicted from established risk scores: results of the Cardiovascular Risk Assessment among Smokers in Primary Care in Europe (CV-ASPIRE) study.

PubMed

Mallaina, Pablo; Lionis, Christos; Rol, Hugo; Imperiali, Renzo; Burgess, Andrew; Nixon, Mark; Malvestiti, Franco Mondello

2013-04-18

Smoking is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This multicenter, cross-sectional survey was designed to estimate the cardiovascular (CV) risk attributable to smoking using risk assessment tools, to better understand patient behaviors and characteristics related to smoking, and characterize physician practice patterns. 1,439 smokers were recruited from Europe during 2011. Smokers were ≥40 years old, smoked > 10 cigarettes/day and had recent measurements on blood pressure and lipids. CV risk was calculated using the SCORE system, Framingham risk equations, and Progetto CUORE model. The CV risk attributable to smoking was evaluated using a simulated control (hypothetical non-smoker) with identical characteristics as the enrolled smoker. Risks assessed included CV mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD and hard CHD. Demographics, comorbidities, primary reasons for consultation, behavior towards previous attempts to quit, and interest in smoking cessation was assessed. Dependence on nicotine was evaluated using the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence. GP practice patterns were assessed through a questionnaire. The prediction models consistently demonstrated a high CV risk attributable to smoking. For instance, the SCORE model demonstrated that this study population of smokers have a 100% increased probability of death due to cardiovascular disease in the next 10-years compared to non-smokers. A considerable amount of patients would like to hear from their GP about the different alternatives available to support their quitting attempt. The findings of this study reinforce the importance of smoking as a significant predictor of long-term cardiovascular events. One of the best gains in health could be obtained by tackling the most important modifiable risk factors; these results suggest smoking is among the most important.

Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

PubMed

Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

2017-07-01

Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

Validation of the grown-ups with congenital heart disease score.

PubMed

Hörer, Jürgen; Roussin, Régine; LeBret, Emanuel; Ly, Mohamed; Abdullah, Jarrah; Marzullo, Rafaella; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Belli, Emre

2018-06-01

Adults with congenital heart disease in need of heart surgery frequently present with significant comorbidity. Furthermore, additional technical difficulties often related to redo operations increase the risk for postoperative mortality and morbidity. Hence, next to the type of the procedure, additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors have to be considered for risk evaluation. The recently proposed grown-ups with congenital heart disease (GUCH) mortality and morbidity scores account for these additional risk factors. We sought to validate their predictive power in a large population operated in a single centre. Data of all consecutive patients aged 18 years or more, who underwent surgery for congenital heart disease between 2005 and 2016, were collected. Mortality was defined as hospital mortality or mortality within 30 days following surgery. Morbidity was defined as occurrence of one or more of the following complications: renal failure requiring dialysis, neurologic deficit persisting at discharge, atrioventricular block requiring permanent pacemaker implantation, mechanical circulatory support, phrenic nerve injury and unplanned reoperation. The discriminatory power of the GUCH scores was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-index, including 95% CI). Eight hundred and twenty-four operations were evaluated. Additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors, as defined in the GUCH scores, were present in 165 patients (20.0%) and 544 patients (66.0%), respectively. Hospital mortality and morbidity was 3.4% and 10.0%, respectively. C-index for GUCH mortality score was 0.809 (0.742-0.877). C-index for GUCH morbidity score was 0.676 (0.619-0.734). We could confirm the good predictive power of the GUCH mortality score for postoperative mortality in a large population of adults with congenital heart disease. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the

Modern risk stratification in coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Ginghina, C; Bejan, I; Ceck, C D

2011-11-14

The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information.

A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies

PubMed Central

Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A.; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S.; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C.M.; Pencina, Michael J.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2013-01-01

Objective Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). Methods SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. Results The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ= 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004–0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10–1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02–1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Conclusion Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. PMID:22789513

Hemorrhage recurrence risk factors in cerebral amyloid angiopathy: Comparative analysis of the overall small vessel disease severity score versus individual neuroimaging markers.

PubMed

Boulouis, Gregoire; Charidimou, Andreas; Pasi, Marco; Roongpiboonsopit, Duangnapa; Xiong, Li; Auriel, Eitan; van Etten, Ellis S; Martinez-Ramirez, Sergi; Ayres, Alison; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin M; Rosand, Jonathan; Goldstein, Joshua N; Gurol, M Edip; Greenberg, Steven M; Viswanathan, Anand

2017-09-15

An MRI-based score of total small vessel disease burden (CAA-SVD-Score) in cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) has been demonstrated to correlate with severity of pathologic changes. Evidence suggests that CAA-related intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) recurrence risk is associated with specific disease imaging manifestations rather than overall severity. We compared the correlation between the CAA-SVD-Score with the risk of recurrent CAA-related lobar ICH versus the predictive role of each of its components. Consecutive patients with CAA-related ICH from a single-center prospective cohort were analyzed. Radiological markers of CAA related SVD damage were quantified and categorized according to the CAA-SVD-Score (0-6 points). Subjects were followed prospectively for recurrent symptomatic ICH. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations between the CAA-SVD-Score as well as each of the individual MRI signatures of CAA and the risk of recurrent ICH. In 229 CAA patients with ICH, a total of 56 recurrent ICH events occurred during a median follow-up of 2.8years [IQR 0.9-5.4years, 781 person-years). Higher CAA-SVD-Score (HR=1.26 per additional point, 95%CI [1.04-1.52], p=0.015) and older age were independently associated with higher ICH recurrence risk. Analysis of individual markers of CAA showed that CAA-SVD-Score findings were due to the independent effect of disseminated superficial siderosis (HR for disseminated cSS vs none: 2.89, 95%CI [1.47-5.5], p=0.002) and high degree of perivascular spaces enlargement (RR=3.50-95%CI [1.04-21], p=0.042). In lobar CAA-ICH patients, higher CAA-SVD-Score does predict recurrent ICH. Amongst individual elements of the score, superficial siderosis and dilated perivascular spaces are the only markers independently associated with ICH recurrence, contributing to the evidence for distinct CAA phenotypes singled out by neuro-imaging manifestations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic assessment of age-associated Alzheimer disease risk: Development and validation of a polygenic hazard score

PubMed Central

Cupples, L. Adrienne; Thompson, Wesley K.; Besser, Lilah; Kukull, Walter A.; Holland, Dominic; Chen, Chi-Hua; Brewer, James B.; Karow, David S.; Kauppi, Karolina; Bonham, Luke W.; Rosen, Howard J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Dillon, William P.; Wilson, David M.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret; Haines, Jonathan L.; Farrer, Lindsay A.; Mayeux, Richard; Hardy, John; Goate, Alison M.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Andreassen, Ole A.

2017-01-01

Background Identifying individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of utmost importance. Although genetic studies have identified AD-associated SNPs in APOE and other genes, genetic information has not been integrated into an epidemiological framework for risk prediction. Methods and findings Using genotype data from 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP Stage 1), we identified AD-associated SNPs (at p < 10−5). We then integrated these AD-associated SNPs into a Cox proportional hazard model using genotype data from a subset of 6,409 AD patients and 9,386 older controls from Phase 1 of the Alzheimer’s Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC), providing a polygenic hazard score (PHS) for each participant. By combining population-based incidence rates and the genotype-derived PHS for each individual, we derived estimates of instantaneous risk for developing AD, based on genotype and age, and tested replication in multiple independent cohorts (ADGC Phase 2, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer’s Disease Center [NIA ADC], and Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], total n = 20,680). Within the ADGC Phase 1 cohort, individuals in the highest PHS quartile developed AD at a considerably lower age and had the highest yearly AD incidence rate. Among APOE ε3/3 individuals, the PHS modified expected age of AD onset by more than 10 y between the lowest and highest deciles (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% CI 2.62–4.24, p = 1.0 × 10−22). In independent cohorts, the PHS strongly predicted empirical age of AD onset (ADGC Phase 2, r = 0.90, p = 1.1 × 10−26) and longitudinal progression from normal aging to AD (NIA ADC, Cochran–Armitage trend test, p = 1.5 × 10−10), and was associated with neuropathology (NIA ADC, Braak stage of neurofibrillary tangles, p = 3.9 × 10−6, and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease score for neuritic plaques, p = 6.8 × 10−6) and

Cancer risk associated with chronic diseases and disease markers: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tu, Huakang; Wen, Chi Pang; Tsai, Shan Pou; Chow, Wong-Ho; Wen, Christopher; Ye, Yuanqing; Zhao, Hua; Tsai, Min Kuang; Huang, Maosheng; Dinney, Colin P; Tsao, Chwen Keng; Wu, Xifeng

2018-01-31

To assess the independent and joint associations of major chronic diseases and disease markers with cancer risk and to explore the benefit of physical activity in reducing the cancer risk associated with chronic diseases and disease markers. Prospective cohort study. Standard medical screening program in Taiwan. 405 878 participants, for whom cardiovascular disease markers (blood pressure, total cholesterol, and heart rate), diabetes, chronic kidney disease markers (proteinuria and glomerular filtration rate), pulmonary disease, and gouty arthritis marker (uric acid) were measured or diagnosed according to standard methods, were followed for an average of 8.7 years. Cancer incidence and cancer mortality. A statistically significantly increased risk of incident cancer was observed for the eight diseases and markers individually (except blood pressure and pulmonary disease), with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.07 to 1.44. All eight diseases and markers were statistically significantly associated with risk of cancer death, with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.12 to 1.70. Chronic disease risk scores summarizing the eight diseases and markers were positively associated with cancer risk in a dose-response manner, with the highest scores associated with a 2.21-fold (95% confidence interval 1.77-fold to 2.75-fold) and 4.00-fold (2.84-fold to 5.63-fold) higher cancer incidence and cancer mortality, respectively. High chronic disease risk scores were associated with substantial years of life lost, and the highest scores were associated with 13.3 years of life lost in men and 15.9 years of life lost in women. The population attributable fractions of cancer incidence or cancer mortality from the eight chronic diseases and markers together were comparable to those from five major lifestyle factors combined (cancer incidence: 20.5% v 24.8%; cancer mortality: 38.9% v 39.7%). Among physically active (versus inactive) participants, the increased cancer risk

Longitudinal AddiQoL scores may identify higher risk for adrenal crises in Addison's disease.

PubMed

Meyer, Gesine; Koch, Maike; Herrmann, Eva; Bojunga, Jörg; Badenhoop, Klaus

2018-05-01

Several studies have shown a reduced quality of life (QoL) in patients with Addison's disease (AD), but investigations of QoL over a long-term course are lacking. Adrenal crises (AC) are life-threatening complications in AD. The purpose of this prospective study was to test whether the repeated use of QoL-questionnaires can detect prodromal periods of an AC. 110 patients with AD were asked to complete the disease specific-QoL questionnaire AddiQoL and a short questionnaire about adverse events once monthly over a period of ten months. AC was defined if at least two of the following symptoms were reported: (a) hypotension, (b) nausea or vomiting, (c) severe fatigue, (d) documented hyponatremia, hyperkalemia, or hypoglycemia, and subsequent parenteral glucocorticoid administration was carried out. Prevalence of AC was 10.9/100 patient years. AddiQoL scores in patients with AC showed a trend (p = 0,08) to a wider fluctuation over time. Subjective precrises not meeting the criteria for AC were reported by 31 patients who had significantly lower AddiQoL scores (p = 0,018). These are the first data showing the course of QoL during a period of ten months in patients with AD. Incidence of AC exceeds previous data. Our data show, that subjective precrises in AD associate with lower QoL. AC, as well as precrises affect intraindividual AddiQol-scores over time with a trend to a stronger fluctuation. Longitudinal AddiQol scores and self-reporting of precrises via patient diaries are additional clinical tools to identify higher risk for critical events.

A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies.

PubMed

Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Pencina, Michael J; Folsom, Aaron R; Cupples, L Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M; Boerwinkle, Eric

2012-08-01

Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ = 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004-0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10-1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

2016-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.88). The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies.

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D; Ross, Michael; Law, Matthew; Reiss, Peter; Kirk, Ole; Smith, Colette; Wentworth, Deborah; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Fux, Christoph A; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Phillipe; Johnson, Margaret A; Ryom, Lene

2015-03-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0-4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events

Effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: protocol for an overview of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Studziński, Krzysztof; Tomasik, Tomasz; Krzyszton, Janusz; Jóźwiak, Jacek; Windak, Adam

2017-03-08

Major clinical practice guidelines recommend assessing risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using absolute/global/total CVD risk scores. However, the effectiveness of using them in clinical practice, despite publication of numerous randomised controlled trials (RCTs), is still poorly understood. To summarise and analyse current knowledge in this field, we will carry out an overview of existing systematic reviews (SRs). The objective of this overview will be to assess the effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD compared with standard care. We will include SRs and meta-analyses which take into account RCTs and quasi-RCTs investigating the effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD. SRs will be retrieved from 4 bibliographical databases and reference lists of identified reviews. Additionally, the PROSPERO database will be searched for unpublished, ongoing or recently completed SRs. 2 reviewers will assess the SRs independently for eligibility and bias. The data will be extracted to a special form. Any disagreement will be resolved by discussion. In case of lack of consensus, a third author will arbitrate. The overview of SRs will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Ethics approval is not required for overview of SRs. We will summarise evidence concerning whether use of the absolute/global/total CVD risk scoring tools in primary prevention of CVD is effective and supported with scientific data or not. If we face unsatisfactory confirmation, we will highlight a need for further research and advice on how to plan such a study. We will submit the results of our study for peer-review publication in a journal indexed in the international bibliographic database of biomedical information. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted

Assessment of the value of a genetic risk score in improving the estimation of coronary risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS ...

A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

PubMed

Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

2013-03-15

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Enhanced liver fibrosis score is associated with clinical outcomes and disease progression in patients with chronic liver disease.

PubMed

Irvine, Katharine M; Wockner, Leesa F; Shanker, Mihir; Fagan, Kevin J; Horsfall, Leigh U; Fletcher, Linda M; Ungerer, Jacobus P J; Pretorius, Carel J; Miller, Gregory C; Clouston, Andrew D; Lampe, Guy; Powell, Elizabeth E

2016-03-01

Current tools for risk stratification of chronic liver disease subjects are limited. We aimed to determine whether the serum-based ELF (Enhanced Liver Fibrosis) test predicted liver-related clinical outcomes, or progression to advanced liver disease, and to compare the performance of ELF to liver biopsy and non-invasive algorithms. Three hundred patients with ELF scores assayed at the time of liver biopsy were followed up (median 6.1 years) for liver-related clinical outcomes (n = 16) and clear evidence of progression to advanced fibrosis (n = 18), by review of medical records and clinical data. Fourteen of 73 (19.2%) patients with ELF score indicative of advanced fibrosis (≥9.8, the manufacturer's cut-off) had a liver-related clinical outcome, compared to only two of 227 (<1%) patients with ELF score <9.8. In contrast, the simple scores APRI and FIB-4 would only have predicted subsequent decompensation in six and four patients respectively. A unit increase in ELF score was associated with a 2.53-fold increased risk of a liver-related event (adjusted for age and stage of fibrosis). In patients without advanced fibrosis on biopsy at recruitment, 55% (10/18) with an ELF score ≥9.8 showed clear evidence of progression to advanced fibrosis (after an average 6 years), whereas only 3.5% of those with an ELF score <9.8 (8/207) progressed (average 14 years). In these subjects, a unit increase in ELF score was associated with a 4.34-fold increased risk of progression. The ELF score is a valuable tool for risk stratification of patients with chronic liver disease. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Disease Risk Score (DRS) as a Confounder Summary Method: Systematic Review and Recommendations

PubMed Central

Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J.; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. Methods We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Results Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Conclusion Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. PMID:23172692

Dynamic TIMI Risk Score for STEMI

PubMed Central

Amin, Sameer T.; Morrow, David A.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M.

2013-01-01

Background Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in‐hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. Methods and Results The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT‐TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON‐TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in‐hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C‐statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C‐statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). Conclusions This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1‐year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions. PMID:23525425

Dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI.

PubMed

Amin, Sameer T; Morrow, David A; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M

2013-01-29

Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in-hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT-TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON-TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in-hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C-statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C-statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1-year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions.

The 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk index is better than SCORE and QRisk II in rheumatoid arthritis: is it enough?

PubMed

Ozen, Gulsen; Sunbul, Murat; Atagunduz, Pamir; Direskeneli, Haner; Tigen, Kursat; Inanc, Nevsun

2016-03-01

To determine the ability of the new American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk algorithm in detecting high cardiovascular (CV) risk, RA patients identified by carotid ultrasonography (US) were compared with Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and QRisk II algorithms. SCORE, QRisk II, 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk and EULAR recommended modified versions were calculated in 216 RA patients. In sonographic evaluation, carotid intima-media thickness >0.90 mm and/or carotid plaques were used as the gold standard test for subclinical atherosclerosis and high CV risk (US+). Eleven (5.1%), 15 (6.9%) and 44 (20.4%) patients were defined as having high CV risk according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. Fifty-two (24.1%) patients were US + and of those, 8 (15.4%), 7 (13.5%) and 23 (44.2%) patients were classified as high CV risk according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. The ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk index better identified US + patients than SCORE and QRisk II (P < 0.0001). With EULAR modification, reclassification from moderate to high risk occurred only in two, five and seven patients according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. The 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk estimator was better than the SCORE and QRisk II indices in RA, but still failed to identify 55% of high risk patients. Furthermore adjustment of threshold and EULAR modification did not work well. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Clinical scores for the risk of bleeding with or without anticoagulation].

PubMed

Junod, Alain

2016-09-14

The assessment of hemorragic risk related to therapeutic anticoagulation is made difficult because of the variety of existing drugs, the heterogeneity of treatment strategies and their duration. Six prognostic scores have been analyzed. For three of them, external validations have revealed a marked decrease in the discrimination power. One British study, Qbleed, based on the data of more than 1 million of ambulatory patients, has repeatedly satisfied quality criteria. Two scores have also studied the bleeding risk during hospital admission for acute medical disease. The development of new and effective anticoagulants with fewer side-effects is more likely to solve this problem than the production of new clinical scores.

Comparative evaluation of Indian Diabetes Risk Score and Finnish Diabetes Risk Score for predicting risk of diabetes mellitus type II: A teaching hospital-based survey in Maharashtra.

PubMed

Pawar, Shivshakti D; Naik, Jayashri D; Prabhu, Priya; Jatti, Gajanan M; Jadhav, Sachin B; Radhe, B K

2017-01-01

India is currently becoming capital for diabetes mellitus. This significantly increasing incidence of diabetes putting an additional burden on health care in India. Unfortunately, half of diabetic individuals are unknown about their diabetic status. Hence, there is an emergent need of effective screening instrument to identify "diabetes risk" individuals. The aim is to evaluate and compare the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) and Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC). This is retrospective, record-based study of diabetes detection camp organized by a teaching hospital. Out of 780 people attended this camp voluntarily only 763 fulfilled inclusion criteria of the study. In this camp, pro forma included the World Health Organization STEP guidelines for surveillance of noncommunicable diseases. Included primary sociodemographic characters, physical measurements, and clinical examination. After that followed the random blood glucose estimation of each individual. Diagnostic accuracy of IDRS and FINDRISC compared by using receiver operative characteristic curve (ROC). Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, positive predictive and negative predictive values were compared. Clinical utility index (CUI) of each score also compared. SPSS version 22, Stata 13, R3.2.9 used. Out of 763 individuals, 38 were new diabetics. By IDRS 347 and by FINDRISC 96 people were included in high-risk category for diabetes. Odds ratio for high-risk people in FINDRISC for getting affected by diabetes was 10.70. Similarly, it was 4.79 for IDRS. Area under curves of ROCs of both scores were indifferent ( P = 0.98). Sensitivity and specificity of IDRS was 78.95% and 56.14%; whereas for FINDRISC it was 55.26% and 89.66%, respectively. CUI was excellent (0.86) for FINDRISC while IDRS it was "satisfactory" (0.54). Bland-Altman plot and Cohen's Kappa suggested fair agreement between these score in measuring diabetes risk. Diagnostic accuracy and

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.

PubMed

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-03-01

Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

PubMed Central

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-01-01

Summary Background Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40–74 years. Methods Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40–64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Findings Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40–64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women

Does adding information on job strain improve risk prediction for coronary heart disease beyond the standard Framingham risk score? The Whitehall II study.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Nyberg, Solja T; Batty, G David; Shipley, Martin J; Ferrie, Jane E; Virtanen, Marianna; Marmot, Michael G; Vahtera, Jussi; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Hamer, Mark

2011-12-01

Guidelines for coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention recommend using multifactorial risk prediction algorithms, particularly the Framingham risk score. We sought to examine whether adding information on job strain to the Framingham model improves its predictive power in a low-risk working population. Our analyses are based on data from the prospective Whitehall II cohort study, UK. Job strain among 5533 adults (mean age 48.9 years, 1666 women) was ascertained in Phases 1 (1985-88), 2 (1989-90) and 3 (1991-93). Variables comprising the Framingham score (blood lipids, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking) were measured at Phase 3. In men and women who were CHD free at baseline, CHD mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) were ascertained from 5-yearly screenings and linkage to mortality and hospital records until Phase 7 (2002-04). A total of 160 coronary deaths and non-fatal MIs occurred during the mean follow-up period of 11.3 years. The addition of indicators of job strain to the Framingham score increased the C-statistics from 0.725 [95% confidence intervals (95% CIs): 0.575-0.854] to only 0.726 (0.577-0.855), corresponding to a net reclassification improvement of 0.7% (95% CIs: -4.2 to 5.6%). The findings were similar after inclusion of definite angina in the CHD outcome (352 total cases) and when using alternative operational definitions for job strain. In this middle-aged low-risk working population, job strain was associated with an increased risk of CHD. However, when compared with the Framingham algorithm, adding job strain did not improve the model's predictive performance.

Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS): A novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalized patients with Clostridium difficile infection

PubMed Central

Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.

2016-01-01

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527

Underestimation of Risk of Carotid Subclinical Atherosclerosis by Cardiovascular Risk Scores in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis.

PubMed

Shen, Jiayun; Lam, Steven H; Shang, Qing; Wong, Chun-Kwok; Li, Edmund K; Wong, Priscilla; Kun, Emily W; Cheng, Isaac T; Li, Martin; Li, Tena K; Zhu, Tracy Y; Lee, Jack Jock-Wai; Chang, Mimi; Lee, Alex Pui-Wai; Tam, Lai-Shan

2018-02-01

To test the performances of established cardiovascular (CV) risk scores in discriminating subclinical atherosclerosis (SCA) in patients with psoriatic arthritis. These scores were calculated: Framingham risk score (FRS), QRISK2, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk algorithm (ASCVD) from the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association, and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)-recommended modified versions (by 1.5 multiplication factor, m-). Carotid intima-media thickness > 0.9 mm and/or the presence of plaque determined by ultrasound were classified as SCA+. We recruited 146 patients [49.4 ± 10.2 yrs, male: 90 (61.6%)], of whom 142/137/128/118 patients were eligible to calculate FRS/QRISK2/SCORE/ASCVD. Further, 62 (42.5%) patients were SCA+ and were significantly older, with higher systolic blood pressure and higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (all p < 0.05). All CV risk scores were significantly higher in patients with SCA+ [FRS: 7.8 (3.9-16.5) vs 2.7 (1.1-7.8), p < 0.001; QRISK2: 5.5 (3.1-10.2) vs 2.9 (1.2-6.3), p < 0.001; SCORE: 1 (0-2) vs 0 (0-1), p < 0.001; ASCVD: 5.6 (2.6-12.4) vs 3.4 (1.4-6.1), p = 0.001]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed moderate goodness of fit for the 4 CV scores (p ranged from 0.087 to 0.686). However, of the patients with SCA+, those identified as high risk were only 44.1% (by FRS > 10%), 1.8% (QRISK2 > 20%), 10.9% (SCORE > 5%), and 43.6% (ASCVD > 7.5%). By applying the EULAR multiplication factor, 50.8%/14.3%/14.5%/54.5% of the patients with SCA+ were identified as high risk by m-FRS/m-QRISK2/m-SCORE/m-ASCVD, respectively. EULAR modification increased the sensitivity of FRS and ASCVD in discriminating SCA+ from 44% to 51%, and 44% to 55%, respectively. All CV risk scores underestimated the SCA+ risk. EULAR-recommended modification improved the sensitivity of FRS and ASCVD only to a moderate level.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

PubMed Central

Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D.; Ross, Michael; Law, Matthew; Reiss, Peter; Kirk, Ole; Smith, Colette; Wentworth, Deborah; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Fux, Christoph A.; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Phillipe; Johnson, Margaret A.; Ryom, Lene

2015-01-01

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk

Influence of Acute Kidney Injury Defined by the Pediatric Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-Stage Renal Disease Score on the Clinical Course of PICU Patients.

PubMed

Cabral, Felipe Cezar; Ramos Garcia, Pedro Celiny; Mattiello, Rita; Dresser, Daiane; Fiori, Humberto Holmer; Korb, Cecilia; Dalcin, Tiago Chagas; Piva, Jefferson Pedro

2015-10-01

To evaluate the predictive value of the pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease criteria for disease course severity in patients with or without acute kidney injury admitted to a PICU. Retrospective cohort study. A 12-bed PICU at a tertiary referral center in Southern Brazil. All patients admitted to the study unit over a 1-year period. A database of all eligible patients was analyzed retrospectively. Patients were classified by pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease score at admission and worst pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease score during PICU hospitalization. The outcomes of interest were length of PICU stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, duration of vasoactive drug therapy, and mortality. The Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 was used to assess overall disease severity at the time of PICU admission. Of 375 patients, 169 (45%) presented acute kidney injury at the time of admission and 37 developed acute kidney injury during PICU stay, for a total of 206 of 375 patients (55%) diagnosed with acute kidney injury during the study period. The median Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 score predicted a mortality rate of 9% among non-acute kidney injury patients versus a mortality rate of 16% among acute kidney injury patients (p = 0.006). The mortality of patients classified as pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease F was double that predicted by Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (7 vs 3.2). Patients classified as having severe acute kidney injury (pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease I + F) exhibited higher mortality (14.1%; p = 0.001) and prolonged PICU length of stay (median, 7 d; p = 0.001) when compared with other patients. Acute kidney injury is a very frequent occurrence among patients admitted to PICUs. The degree of acute kidney injury severity, as assessed by the pediatric-modified Risk

Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts.

PubMed

Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Dégano, Irene R; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume

2018-04-01

To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P < .001 in both sexes and with all functions). The area under the ROC curve with the original SCORE was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women. All versions of the SCORE functions available in Spain significantly overestimate the cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Complete blood count risk score and its components, including RDW, are associated with mortality in the JUPITER trial.

PubMed

Horne, Benjamin D; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Ridker, Paul M; Paynter, Nina P

2015-04-01

Previously, we showed that sex-specific complete blood count (CBC) risk scores strongly predicted risk of all-cause mortality in multiple sets of general medical patients. This study evaluated the CBC risk score in an independent, well-studied international primary risk population of lower-risk individuals initially free from cardiovascular (CV) disease. Observational secondary analysis of a randomized trial population. The previously derived and validated CBC score was evaluated for association with all-cause mortality among CV disease-free females (n = 6568) and males (n = 10,629) enrolled for up to 5 years in the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER) trial. Associations of the CBC score with CV mortality and with major CV disease were also tested. The CBC score predicted all-cause mortality, with univariable hazard ratio (HR) 4.83 (95% CI 3.70-6.31) for the third CBC score tertile vs. the first tertile, and HR 2.31 (CI 1.75-3.05) for the second tertile (p trend < 0.001). The CBC score retained significance after adjustment: HR 1.97 (CI 1.46-2.67) and 1.51 (CI 1.13-2.00) for tertiles 3 and 2 vs. 1, respectively (p trend < 0.001). The CBC score also predicted CV mortality (p trend = 0.025) and the primary JUPITER endpoint (p trend = 0.015). c-statistics for mortality were 0.729 among all, and 0.722 and 0.750 for females and males, respectively. The CBC risk score was strongly associated with all-cause mortality among JUPITER trial participants and had good discrimination. It also predicted CV-specific outcomes. This CBC score may be useful in identifying cardiac disease-free individuals at increased risk of mortality. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

2016-04-01

The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease at a North American Center: An Assessment of Baseline z Scores.

PubMed

Son, Mary Beth F; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Kim, Susan; Tang, Alexander; Dedeoglu, Fatma; Fulton, David R; Lo, Mindy S; Baker, Annette L; Sundel, Robert P; Newburger, Jane W

2017-05-31

Accurate risk prediction of coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in North American children with Kawasaki disease remains a clinical challenge. We sought to determine the predictive utility of baseline coronary dimensions adjusted for body surface area ( z scores) for future CAAs in Kawasaki disease and explored the extent to which addition of established Japanese risk scores to baseline coronary artery z scores improved discrimination for CAA development. We explored the relationships of CAA with baseline z scores; with Kobayashi, Sano, Egami, and Harada risk scores; and with the combination of baseline z scores and risk scores. We defined CAA as a maximum z score (zMax) ≥2.5 of the left anterior descending or right coronary artery at 4 to 8 weeks of illness. Of 261 patients, 77 patients (29%) had a baseline zMax ≥2.0. CAAs occurred in 15 patients (6%). CAAs were strongly associated with baseline zMax ≥2.0 versus <2.0 (12 [16%] versus 3 [2%], respectively, P <0.001). Baseline zMax ≥2.0 had a C statistic of 0.77, good sensitivity (80%), and excellent negative predictive value (98%). None of the risk scores alone had adequate discrimination. When high-risk status per the Japanese risk scores was added to models containing baseline zMax ≥2.0, none were significantly better than baseline zMax ≥2.0 alone. In a North American center, baseline zMax ≥2.0 in children with Kawasaki disease demonstrated high predictive utility for later development of CAA. Future studies should validate the utility of our findings. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Risk prediction in stable cardiovascular disease using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T single biomarker strategy compared to the ESC-SCORE.

PubMed

Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Stoyanov, Kiril M; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Katus, Hugo A; Hochholzer, Willibald; Valina, Christian Marc

2018-01-01

To evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) compared with the ESC-SCORE. We included low-risk outpatients with stable cardiovascular (CV) disease categorised into need for non-secondary and secondary prevention. The prognostication of hs-cTnT at index visit was compared with the European Society of Cardiology-Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (ESC-SCORE) with respect to all-cause mortality (ACM) and two composite endpoints (ACM, acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke and ACM, AMI, stroke and rehospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and decompensated heart failure (DHF)). Within a median follow-up of 796 days, a total of 16 deaths, 32 composite endpoints of ACM, AMI and stroke and 83 composite endpoints of ACM, AMI, stroke, rehospitalisation for ACS and DHF were observed among 693 stable low-risk outpatients. Using C-statistics, measurement of hs-cTnT alone outperformed the ESC-SCORE for the prediction of ACM in the entire study population (Δarea under the curve (AUC) 0.221, p=0.0039) and both prevention groups (non-secondary: ΔAUC 0.164, p=0.0208; secondary: ΔAUC 0.264, p=0.0134). For the prediction of all other secondary endpoints, hs-cTnT was at least as effective as the ESC-SCORE, both in secondary and non-secondary prevention. Using continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement, hs-cTnT significantly improved reclassification regarding all endpoints in the entire population and in the secondary prevention cohort. In non-secondary prevention, hs-cTnT improved reclassification only for ACM. The results were confirmed in an independent external cohort on 2046 patients. Hs-cTnT is superior to the multivariable ESC-SCORE for the prediction of ACM and a composite endpoint in stable outpatients with and without relevant CV disease. NCT01954303; Pre-results.

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 2. Short-term prognostic scores for acute exacerbations].

PubMed

Junod, Alain F

2014-01-22

The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or COPD is a slowly progressive disease whose course is frequently the subject of acute episodes, of variable severity, although, in general, reversible, called acute exacerbations. In the past five years (between 2008 and 2013), seven prognostic scores have been published to try to assess the short-term risk of these acute exacerbations. Their components and characteristics are analysed and commented upon. An Internet program with a detailed compilation of the main features of these scores (www.medhyg.ch/scoredoc) supplements this review.

[Cardiovascular risk by Framingham and SCORE in patients 40-65 years old].

PubMed

González, Carmen; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, José A; Justicia, Jorge; Pascual, José M

2006-04-15

The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and treatment implications of 2 cardiovascular risk stratification systems in a population of patients 40-65 years old. 929 non diabetic patients (40-65 years old) (51% female) with no evidence of previous cardiovascular disease were included in the study. The risk of cardiovascular death was assessed with the charts of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and coronary risk by the Framingham function (National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults -NCEP-ATP-III-). Patients were considered of high risk if risk of cardiovascular death was >or= 5% and coronary risk was > 20%, respectively. 4.1% of patients were considered as high risk by SCORE and 2.5% by Framingham. Only 0.2% of females were classified as high risk with either system. 8.2% and 4.8% of male population were considered as high risk by SCORE and Framingham, respectively. There was a low level of concordance between both systems. Patients classified as high risk by SCORE but not by Framingham were older, smoke less and had a better lipid profile. According to European Guidelines 28% of male and 23% of female were candidates to hypolipemic treatment, that proportion was higher, 43% of males and 28% of females, by NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. In Spanish patients 40-65 years old, SCORE charts almost duplicate the number of high risk individuals compared to Framingham. although the number of patients candidates to hypolipemic treatment is lower with the European than ATP-III guidelines. Differences were more evident in male.

Japanese scoring systems to predict resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin in Kawasaki disease were unreliable for Caucasian Israeli children.

PubMed

Arane, Karen; Mendelsohn, Kerry; Mimouni, Michael; Mimouni, Francis; Koren, Yael; Simon, Dafna Brik; Bahat, Hilla; Helou, Mona Hanna; Mendelson, Amir; Hezkelo, Nofar; Glatstein, Miguel; Berkun, Yackov; Eisenstein, Eli; Aviel, Yonatan Butbul; Brik, Riva; Hashkes, Philip J; Uziel, Yosef; Harel, Liora; Amarilyo, Gil

2018-05-24

This study assessed the validity of using established Japanese risk scoring methods to predict intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance to Kawasaki disease in Israeli children. We reviewed the medical records of 282 patients (70% male) with Kawasaki disease from six Israeli medical centres between 2004-2013. Their mean age was 2.5 years. The risk scores were calculated using the Kobayashi, Sano and Egami scoring methods and analysed to determine if a higher risk score predicted IVIG resistance in this population. Factors that predicted a lack of response to the initial IVIG dose were identified. We found that 18% did not respond to the first IVIG dose. The three scoring methods were unable to reliably predict IVIG resistance, with sensitivities of 23-32% and specificities of 67-87%. Calculating a predictive score that was specific for this population was also unsuccessful. The factors that predicted a lacked of response to the first IVIG dose included low albumin, elevated total bilirubin and ethnicity. The established risk scoring methods created for Japanese populations with Kawasaki disease were not suitable for predicting IVIG resistance in Caucasian Israeli children and we were unable to create a specific scoring method that was able to do this. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Bleeding Risk Profile in Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

PubMed

Baumann, Frederic; Husmann, Marc; Benenati, James F; Katzen, Barry T; Del Conde, Ian

2016-06-01

To assess the bleeding risk profile using the HAS-BLED score in patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD). A post hoc analysis was performed using data from a series of 115 consecutive patients (mean age 72.4±11.4 years; 68 men) with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular revascularization. The endpoint of the study was to assess bleeding risk using the 9-point HAS-BLED score, which was previously validated in cohorts of patients with and without atrial fibrillation. For the purpose of this study, the low (0-1), intermediate (2), and high-risk (≥3) scores were stratified as low/intermediate risk (HAS-BLED <3) vs high risk (HAS-BLED ≥3). The mean HAS-BLED score was 2.76±1.16; 64 (56%) patients had a HAS-BLED score ≥3.0. Patients with PAD Rutherford category 5/6 ischemia had an even higher mean HAS-BLED score (3.20±1.12). Logistic regression analysis revealed aortoiliac or femoropopliteal segment involvement, chronic kidney disease, as well as Rutherford category 5/6, to be independent risk factors associated with a HAS-BLED score ≥3. Patients with PAD, especially those presenting with Rutherford category 5/6 ischemic symptoms, have high HAS-BLED scores, suggesting increased risk for major bleeding. Prospective clinical validation of the HAS-BLED score in patients with PAD may help with the risk-benefit assessment when prescribing antithrombotic therapy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Integrating Genetics and Social Science: Genetic Risk Scores

PubMed Central

Belsky, Daniel W.; Israel, Salomon

2014-01-01

The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public-use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry. PMID:25343363

Multilocus genetic risk scores for venous thromboembolism risk assessment.

PubMed

Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre-Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

2014-10-23

Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL-rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT-rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age- and sex-matched case-control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature-based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5-rs6025 and F2-rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

2014-01-01

Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

Association of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score With Mortality in Emergency General Surgery Patients.

PubMed

Havens, Joaquim M; Columbus, Alexandra B; Olufajo, Olubode A; Askari, Reza; Salim, Ali; Christopher, Kenneth B

2016-07-20

Emergency general surgery (EGS) patients have a disproportionate burden of death and complications. Chronic liver disease (CLD) increases the risk of complications following elective surgery. For EGS patients with CLD, long-term outcomes are unknown and risk stratification models do not reflect severity of CLD. To determine whether the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is associated with increased risk of 90-day mortality following intensive care unit (ICU) admission in EGS patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with CLD who underwent an EGS procedure based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) procedure codes and were admitted to a medical or surgical ICU within 48 hours of surgery between January 1, 1998, and September 20, 2012, at 2 academic medical centers. Chronic liver disease was identified using ICD-9 codes. Multivariable logistic regression was performed. The analysis was conducted from July 1, 2015, to January 1, 2016. The primary outcome was all-cause 90-day mortality. A total of 13 552 EGS patients received critical care; of these, 707 (5%) (mean [SD] age at hospital admission, 56.6 [14.2] years; 64% male; 79% white) had CLD and data to determine MELD score at ICU admission. The median MELD score was 14 (interquartile range, 10-20). Overall 90-day mortality was 30.1%. The adjusted odds ratio of 90-day mortality for each 10-point increase in MELD score was 1.63 (95% CI, 1.34-1.98). A decrease in MELD score of more than 3 in the 48 hours following ICU admission was associated with a 2.2-fold decrease in 90-day mortality (odds ratio = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.98). In this study, MELD score was associated with 90-day mortality following EGS in patients with CLD. The MELD score can be used as a prognostic factor in this patient population and should be used in preoperative risk prediction models and when counseling EGS patients on the risks and benefits of operative intervention.

Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

2012-05-22

No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX score) in subclinical hyperthyroidism.

PubMed

Polovina, Snefana; Micić, Dragan; Miljić, Dragana; Milić, Nataga; Micić, Dugan; Popović, Vera

2015-06-01

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX score) is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. The bone mineral density (by DXA), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level, free thyroxine (fT4) level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and postmenopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 +/- 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI) 27.89 +/- 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 +/- 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 +/- 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 +/- 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 +/- 4.58 years). The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX score calculation was performed in both groups. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 +/- 1.58 vs. 4.35 +/- 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015). The FRAX score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 +/- 3.92 vs. 0.50 +/- 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022). There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (P > 0.05). The ability of the FRAX score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001) is presented by the area under the curve (AUC) plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX scores and thus greater risk for low-trauma hip fracture than euthyroid

Physical activity, the Framingham risk score and risk of coronary heart disease in men and women of the EPIC-Norfolk study.

PubMed

Arsenault, Benoit J; Rana, Jamal S; Lemieux, Isabelle; Després, Jean-Pierre; Wareham, Nicholas J; Kastelein, John J P; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2010-03-01

Test the hypothesis that considering leisure-time and work-related physical activity habits in addition to the Framingham risk score (FRS) would result into better classification of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk than FRS alone. Prospective, population-based study of 9564 men and 12165 women aged 45-79 years followed for an average of 11.4 years. A modified FRS which takes into account physical activity (evaluated using a validated lifestyle questionnaire taking into account leisure-time and work-related physical activity) was computed. During follow-up, 2191 CHD events occurred. Among 3369 men who were classified as intermediate risk (event rate of 12.4%) according to the FRS, 413 were reclassified into the low-risk category and 279 were reclassified into the high-risk category after modification of the FRS. After reclassification of these men, CHD event rate was of 5.3% and 18.6%, respectively for men classified at low and high CHD risk. Among 4766 women initially classified as intermediate risk (event rate of 8.4%), 1282 were reclassified into the low-risk category whereas 1071 women were reclassified into the high-risk category. After reclassification of these women, CHD event rate was of 6.8% and 12.2%, respectively for women classified at low and high CHD risk. Results of the present study suggest that asking simple questions about leisure-time and work-related physical activity which can be rapidly obtained by any physician at no cost could be helpful in the estimation of patients' CHD risk.

Rheumatoid arthritis-specific cardiovascular risk scores are not superior to general risk scores: a validation analysis of patients from seven countries.

PubMed

Crowson, Cynthia S; Gabriel, Sherine E; Semb, Anne Grete; van Riel, Piet L C M; Karpouzas, George; Dessein, Patrick H; Hitchon, Carol; Pascual-Ramos, Virginia; Kitas, George D

2017-07-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators developed for the general population do not accurately predict CVD events in patients with RA. We sought to externally validate risk calculators recommended for use in patients with RA including the EULAR 1.5 multiplier, the Expanded Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Score for RA (ERS-RA) and QRISK2. Seven RA cohorts from UK, Norway, Netherlands, USA, South Africa, Canada and Mexico were combined. Data on baseline CVD risk factors, RA characteristics and CVD outcomes (including myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke and cardiovascular death) were collected using standardized definitions. Performance of QRISK2, EULAR multiplier and ERS-RA was compared with other risk calculators [American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), Framingham Adult Treatment Panel III Framingham risk score-Adult Treatment Panel (FRS-ATP) and Reynolds Risk Score] using c-statistics and net reclassification index. Among 1796 RA patients without prior CVD [mean ( s . d .) age: 54.0 (14.0) years, 74% female], 100 developed CVD events during a mean follow-up of 6.9 years (12430 person-years). Estimated CVD risk by ERS-RA [mean ( s . d .) 8.8% (9.8%)] was comparable to FRS-ATP [mean ( s . d .) 9.1% (8.3%)] and Reynolds [mean ( s . d .) 9.2% (12.2%)], but lower than ACC/AHA [mean ( s . d .) 9.8% (12.1%)]. QRISK2 substantially overestimated risk [mean ( s . d .) 15.5% (13.9%)]. Discrimination was not improved for ERS-RA (c-statistic = 0.69), QRISK2 or EULAR multiplier applied to ACC/AHA compared with ACC/AHA (c-statistic = 0.72 for all) or for FRS-ATP (c-statistic = 0.75). The net reclassification index for ERS-RA was low (-0.8% vs ACC/AHA and 2.3% vs FRS-ATP). The QRISK2, EULAR multiplier and ERS-RA algorithms did not predict CVD risk more accurately in patients with RA than CVD risk calculators developed for the general population. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for

Prenatal High Risk Scoring: How Family Doctors Do It

PubMed Central

Shea, Philip

1978-01-01

Assessment of risk factors is an integral part of family medicine and of prenatal care. A strong positive relationship has been demonstrated between a high risk score and higher incidence of maternal or perinatal morbidity and mortality. The family physician, because of his previous knowledge of the patient, and his familiarity with a broad range of normals, is in a good position to use his clinical judgement in high risk scoring in pregnancy. We must also be cautious that high risk scoring does not become a self fulfilling prophecy. Risk scoring is simply risk scoring, not a plan of management and intervention. PMID:21301562

Genetic risk analysis of coronary artery disease in Pakistani subjects using a genetic risk score of 21 variants.

PubMed

Shahid, Saleem Ullah; Shabana; Cooper, Jackie A; Beaney, Katherine E; Li, Kawah; Rehman, Abdul; Humphries, Steve E

2017-03-01

Conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors like age, gender, blood lipids, hypertension and smoking have been the basis of CAD risk prediction algorithms, but provide only modest discrimination. Genetic risk score (GRS) may provide improved discrimination over and above conventional risk factors. Here we analyzed the genetic risk of CAD in subjects from Pakistan, using a GRS of 21 variants in 18 genes and examined whether the GRS is associated with blood lipid levels. 625 (405 cases and 220 controls) subjects were genotyped for variants, NOS3 rs1799983, SMAD3 rs17228212, APOB rs1042031, LPA rs3798220, LPA rs10455872, SORT1 rs646776, APOE rs429358, GLUL rs10911021, FTO rs9939609, MIA3 rs17465637, CDKN2Ars10757274, DAB2IP rs7025486, CXCL12 rs1746048, ACE rs4341, APOA5 rs662799, CETP rs708272, MRAS rs9818870, LPL rs328, LPL rs1801177, PCSK9 rs11591147 and APOE rs7412 by TaqMan and KASPar allele discrimination techniques. Individually, the single SNPs were not associated with CAD except APOB rs1042031 and FTO rs993969 (p = 0.01 and 0.009 respectively). However, the combined GRS of 21 SNPs was significantly higher in cases than controls (19.37 ± 2.56 vs. 18.47 ± 2.45, p = 2.9 × 10 -5 ), and compared to the bottom quintile, CAD risk in the top quintile of the GRS was 2.96 (95% CI 1.71-5.13). Atherogenic blood lipids showed significant positive association with GRS. The GRS was quantitatively associated with CAD risk and showed association with blood lipid levels, suggesting that the mechanism of these variants is likely to be, in part at least, through creating an atherogenic lipid profile in subjects carrying high numbers of risk alleles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationship between Calcium Score and Myocardial Scintigraphy in the Diagnosis of Coronary Disease

PubMed Central

Siqueira, Fabio Paiva Rossini; Mesquita, Claudio Tinoco; dos Santos, Alair Augusto Sarmet M. Damas; Nacif, Marcelo Souto

2016-01-01

Half the patients with coronary artery disease present with sudden death - or acute infarction as first symptom, making early diagnosis pivotal. Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy is frequently used in the assessment of these patients, but it does not detect the disease without flow restriction, exposes the patient to high levels of radiation and is costly. On the other hand, with less radiological exposure, calcium score is directly correlated to the presence and extension of coronary atherosclerosis, and also to the risk of cardiovascular events. Even though calcium score is a tried-and-true method for stratification of asymptomatic patients, its use is still reduced in this context, since current guidelines are contradictory to its use on symptomatic diseases. The aim of this review is to identify, on patients under investigation for coronary artery disease, the main evidence of the use of calcium score associated with functional evaluation and scintigraphy. PMID:27437867

Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi?

PubMed

Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P

2017-03-01

Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

COPART Risk Score, Endothelial Dysfunction, and Arterial Hypertension are Independent Risk Factors for Mortality in Claudicants.

PubMed

Hackl, G; Jud, P; Avian, A; Gary, T; Deutschmann, H; Seinost, G; Brodmann, M; Hafner, F

2016-08-01

The COPART risk score consists of six variables to assess the prognosis of PAOD patients. The flow mediated dilation (FMD) quantifies endothelial function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the mortality prediction of these two variables in a long-term observation of claudicants. 184 consecutive claudicants were included in a prospective observational study over a median observation period of 7.9 (IQR 7.2-8.7) years. The endothelial function was assessed on the day of study inclusion using brachial FMD. Three groups were assigned according to the COPART risk score: low risk (LR), n = 72 (39%); medium risk (MR), n = 59 (32%); and high risk (HR), n = 53 (29%). Overall survival rates differed among COPART risk score groups (p < .001, 5 year survival: LR group 83% [95% CI 74-92%]; MR group 73% [95% CI 62-84%]; HR group 57% [95% CI 43-70%]). Survivors had a significantly better median FMD than non-survivors (4.1% [IQR 1.2-6.4] vs. 1.3% [IQR 0.0-4.2]; p < .001). Also the FMD differed significantly among the three COPART risk groups (LR 4.0% [IQR 1.2-6.3], MR 2.3% [IQR 0.0-6.3], HR 1.7% [IQR 0.0-3.6]; p = .033). Finally, independent predictors for disease specific survival were COPART risk score (p = .033; MR group [HR 1.6], 95% CI 0.7-3.6; HR group [HR 2.7], 95% CI 1.2-5.8), FMD (p = .004; FMD ≤2.5 vs. >2.5, HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.9), and arterial hypertension (p = .039; HR 3.5, 95% CI 1.1-11.3). COPART risk score, FMD, and arterial hypertension are independent long-term mortality predictors in this group of claudicants. The best mortality assessment is provided by including all three predictors. Copyright © 2016 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a cardiovascular risk score for use in low- and middle-income countries

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Summary measures of cardiovascular risk have long been used in public health, but few include nutritional predictors despite extensive evidence linking diet and heart disease. Study objectives were to develop and validate a novel risk score in a case-control study of myocardial infarction (MI) condu...

Risk score elaboration for mediastinitis after coronary artery bypass grafting.

PubMed

Magedanz, Ellen Hettwer; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Guaragna, João Carlos Vieira da Costa; Albuquerque, Luciano Cabral; Martins, Valério; Minossi, Silvia Daniela; Piccoli, Jacqueline da Costa Escobar; Goldani, Marco Antônio

2010-01-01

The mediastinitis is a serious postoperative complication of cardiac surgery, with an incidence of 0.4 to 5% and mortality between 14 and 47%. Several models were proposed to assess risk of mediastinitis after cardiac surgery. However, most of these models do not evaluate the postoperative morbidity. This study aims to develop a score risk model to predict the risk of mediastinitis for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. The study sample included data from 2,809 adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting between January 1996 and December 2007 at Hospital São Lucas -PUCRS. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between risk factors and the development of mediastinitis. Data from 1,889 patients were used to develop the model and its performance was evaluated in the remaining data (n=920). The definitive model was created with the data analysis of 2,809 patients. The rate of mediastinitis was 3.3%, with mortality of 26.6%. In the multivariate analysis, five variables remained independent predictors of the outcome: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity, surgical reintervention, blood transfusion and stable angina class IV or unstable. The area under the ROC curve was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.67-0.78) and P = 0.61. The risk score was constructed for use in daily practice to calculate the rate of mediastinitis after coronary artery bypass grafting. The score includes routinely collected variables and is simple to use.

A risk scoring system for prediction of haemorrhagic stroke.

PubMed

Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R

2005-01-01

The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical Utility of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Gene Score in UK Healthy Middle Aged Men and in the Pakistani Population

PubMed Central

Beaney, Katherine E.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Ullah Shahid, Saleem; Ahmed, Waqas; Qamar, Raheel; Drenos, Fotios; Crockard, Martin A.; Humphries, Steve E.

2015-01-01

Background Numerous risk prediction algorithms based on conventional risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) are available but provide only modest discrimination. The inclusion of genetic information may improve clinical utility. Methods We tested the use of two gene scores (GS) in the prospective second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII) of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases), and Pakistani case-control studies from Islamabad/Rawalpindi (321 cases/228 controls) and Lahore (414 cases/219 controls). The 19-SNP GS included SNPs in loci identified by GWAS and candidate gene studies, while the 13-SNP GS only included SNPs in loci identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium. Results In NPHSII, the mean of both gene scores was higher in those who went on to develop CHD over 13.5 years of follow-up (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=7x10-3). In combination with the Framingham algorithm the GSs appeared to show improvement in discrimination (increase in area under the ROC curve, 19-SNP p=0.48, 13-SNP p=0.82) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI), 19-SNP p=0.28, 13-SNP p=0.42) compared to the Framingham algorithm alone, but these were not statistically significant. When considering only individuals who moved up a risk category with inclusion of the GS, the improvement in risk classification was statistically significant (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=0.04). In the Pakistani samples, risk allele frequencies were significantly lower compared to NPHSII for 13/19 SNPs. In the Islamabad study, the mean gene score was higher in cases than controls only for the 13-SNP GS (2.24 v 2.34, p=0.04). There was no association with CHD and either score in the Lahore study. Conclusion The performance of both GSs showed potential clinical utility in European men but much less utility in subjects from Pakistan, suggesting that a different set of risk loci or SNPs may be required for risk prediction in the South Asian population. PMID:26133560

Cardiovascular disease risk in women with migraine

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Studies suggest a higher prevalence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors amongst migraineurs, but results have been conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate traditional and newly recognized risk factors as well as other surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk in obese and normal weight women with migraine. Methods Fifty-nine adult female probands participated in this case–control study. The sample was divided into normal weight and obese migraineurs and age- and body mass index-matched control groups. The following cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed: serum levels of lipids, fasting glucose, and insulin; insulin resistance; blood pressure; smoking (categorized as current, past or never); Framingham 10-year risk of general cardiovascular disease score; C-reactive protein; family history of cardiovascular disease; physical activity; sleep disturbances; depression; and bioelectrical impedance phase angle. The means of continuous variables were compared using Student’s t-test for independent samples or the Mann–Whitney U-test (for 2 groups) and ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test (for 4 groups) depending on the distribution of data. Results All migraineurs were sedentary irrespective of nutritional status. Migraineurs had higher depression scores and shorter sleep duration, and obese migraineurs, in particular, had worse sleep quality scores. Insulin resistance and insulinaemia were associated with obesity, and obese migraineurs had lower HDL-c than normal weight controls and migraineurs. Also, the Framingham risk score was higher in obese migraineurs. Conclusion These findings suggest that female migraineurs experience marked inactivity, depression, and some sleep disturbance, that higher insulin resistance and insulinaemia are related to obesity, and that obesity and migraine probably exert overlapping effects on HDL-c levels and Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risk. PMID:24011175

Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk.

PubMed

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2015-01-01

Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998-2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated.

Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk

PubMed Central

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2015-01-01

Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998–2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated. PMID:26496190

The potential of composite cognitive scores for tracking progression in Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Jones, Rebecca; Stout, Julie C; Labuschagne, Izelle; Say, Miranda; Justo, Damian; Coleman, Allison; Dumas, Eve M; Hart, Ellen; Owen, Gail; Durr, Alexandra; Leavitt, Blair R; Roos, Raymund; O'Regan, Alison; Langbehn, Doug; Tabrizi, Sarah J; Frost, Chris

2014-01-01

Composite scores derived from joint statistical modelling of individual risk factors are widely used to identify individuals who are at increased risk of developing disease or of faster disease progression. We investigated the ability of composite measures developed using statistical models to differentiate progressive cognitive deterioration in Huntington's disease (HD) from natural decline in healthy controls. Using longitudinal data from TRACK-HD, the optimal combinations of quantitative cognitive measures to differentiate premanifest and early stage HD individuals respectively from controls was determined using logistic regression. Composite scores were calculated from the parameters of each statistical model. Linear regression models were used to calculate effect sizes (ES) quantifying the difference in longitudinal change over 24 months between premanifest and early stage HD groups respectively and controls. ES for the composites were compared with ES for individual cognitive outcomes and other measures used in HD research. The 0.632 bootstrap was used to eliminate biases which result from developing and testing models in the same sample. In early HD, the composite score from the HD change prediction model produced an ES for difference in rate of 24-month change relative to controls of 1.14 (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.39), larger than the ES for any individual cognitive outcome and UHDRS Total Motor Score and Total Functional Capacity. In addition, this composite gave a statistically significant difference in rate of change in premanifest HD compared to controls over 24-months (ES: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.44), even though none of the individual cognitive outcomes produced statistically significant ES over this period. Composite scores developed using appropriate statistical modelling techniques have the potential to materially reduce required sample sizes for randomised controlled trials.

Matching on the Disease Risk Score in Comparative Effectiveness Research of New Treatments

PubMed Central

Wyss, Richard; Ellis, Alan R.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Funk, Michele Jonsson; Girman, Cynthia J.; Simpson, Ross J.; Stürmer, Til

2016-01-01

Purpose We use simulations and an empirical example to evaluate the performance of disease risk score (DRS) matching compared with propensity score (PS) matching when controlling large numbers of covariates in settings involving newly introduced treatments. Methods We simulated a dichotomous treatment, a dichotomous outcome, and 100 baseline covariates that included both continuous and dichotomous random variables. For the empirical example, we evaluated the comparative effectiveness of dabigatran versus warfarin in preventing combined ischemic stroke and all-cause mortality. We matched treatment groups on a historically estimated DRS and again on the PS. We controlled for a high-dimensional set of covariates using 20% and 1% samples of Medicare claims data from October 2010 through December 2012. Results In simulations, matching on the DRS versus the PS generally yielded matches for more treated individuals and improved precision of the effect estimate. For the empirical example, PS and DRS matching in the 20% sample resulted in similar hazard ratios (0.88 and 0.87) and standard errors (0.04 for both methods). In the 1% sample, PS matching resulted in matches for only 92.0% of the treated population and a hazard ratio and standard error of 0.89 and 0.19, respectively, while DRS matching resulted in matches for 98.5% and a hazard ratio and standard error of 0.85 and 0.16, respectively. Conclusions When PS distributions are separated, DRS matching can improve the precision of effect estimates and allow researchers to evaluate the treatment effect in a larger proportion of the treated population. However, accurately modeling the DRS can be challenging compared with the PS. PMID:26112690

Matching on the disease risk score in comparative effectiveness research of new treatments.

PubMed

Wyss, Richard; Ellis, Alan R; Brookhart, M Alan; Jonsson Funk, Michele; Girman, Cynthia J; Simpson, Ross J; Stürmer, Til

2015-09-01

We use simulations and an empirical example to evaluate the performance of disease risk score (DRS) matching compared with propensity score (PS) matching when controlling large numbers of covariates in settings involving newly introduced treatments. We simulated a dichotomous treatment, a dichotomous outcome, and 100 baseline covariates that included both continuous and dichotomous random variables. For the empirical example, we evaluated the comparative effectiveness of dabigatran versus warfarin in preventing combined ischemic stroke and all-cause mortality. We matched treatment groups on a historically estimated DRS and again on the PS. We controlled for a high-dimensional set of covariates using 20% and 1% samples of Medicare claims data from October 2010 through December 2012. In simulations, matching on the DRS versus the PS generally yielded matches for more treated individuals and improved precision of the effect estimate. For the empirical example, PS and DRS matching in the 20% sample resulted in similar hazard ratios (0.88 and 0.87) and standard errors (0.04 for both methods). In the 1% sample, PS matching resulted in matches for only 92.0% of the treated population and a hazard ratio and standard error of 0.89 and 0.19, respectively, while DRS matching resulted in matches for 98.5% and a hazard ratio and standard error of 0.85 and 0.16, respectively. When PS distributions are separated, DRS matching can improve the precision of effect estimates and allow researchers to evaluate the treatment effect in a larger proportion of the treated population. However, accurately modeling the DRS can be challenging compared with the PS. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Validation of the EBMT risk score in chronic myeloid leukemia in Brazil and allogeneic transplant outcome.

PubMed

De Souza, Carmino Antonio; Vigorito, Afonso Celso; Ruiz, Milton Artur; Nucci, Márcio; Dulley, Frederico Luiz; Funcke, Vaneusa; Tabak, Daniel; Azevedo, Alexandre Mello; Byington, Rita; Macedo, Maria Cristina; Saboya, Rosaura; Penteado Aranha, Francisco José; Oliveira, Gislaine Barbosa; Zulli, Roberto; Martins Miranda, Eliana Cristina; Azevedo, Wellington Moraes; Lodi, Fernanda Maria; Voltarelli, Júlio Cesar; Simões, Belinda Pinto; Colturato, Vergílio; De Souza, Mair Pedro; Silla, Lúcia; Bittencourt, Henrique; Piron-Ruiz, Lilian; Maiolino, Angelo; Gratwohl, Alois; Pasquini, Ricardo

2005-02-01

The management of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has changed radically since the introduction of imatinib therapy. The decision of whether to offer a patient a hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) must be based on the probability of success of the procedure. The aim of this retrospective analysis of 1,084 CML patients who received an allogeneic HSCT in 10 Brazilian Centers between February 1983 and March 2003 was to validate the EBMT risk score. The study population comprised 647 (60%) males and 437 (40%) females, with a median age of 32 years old (range 1 - 59); 898 (83%) were in chronic phase, 146 (13%) were in accelerated phase and 40 (4%) were in blast crisis; 151 (14%) were younger than 20 years old, 620 (57%) were between 20 and 40 and 313 (29%) were older than 40; 1,025 (94%) received an HLA fully matched sibling transplant and only 59 (6%) received an unrelated transplant. In 283 cases (26%) a male recipient received a graft from a female donor. The interval from diagnosis to transplantation was less than 12 months in 223 (21%) cases and greater in 861 (79%). The overall survival, disease-free survival, transplant-related mortality and relapse incidence were 49%, 50%, 45% and 25%, respectively. Of the 1084 patients, 179 (17%) had a risk score of 0 or 1, 397 (37%) had a score of 2, 345 (32%) had a score of 3, 135 (12%) had a score of 4 and 28 (2%) a score of 5 or 6. The overall survival (OS) rate in patients with risk scores 0-1 and 2 was similar (58% and 55%, respectively) but significantly better than that in patients with scores 3 or more (score 3 - 44%, 4 - 36 % and 5-6 - 27%, respectively) pp<0.001). Disease-free survival (DFS) and transplant related mortality (TRM) in a patients with a score of 3 or more were 46% and 49%, respectively and the relapse rate beyond score 5-6 was 77%. Disease status had a negative impact on all outcomes (OS, DFS, TRM, and relapse). The OS rate for male recipients of a graft from a female donor was 40% compared to 52

A point-based prediction model for cardiovascular risk in orthotopic liver transplantation: The CAR-OLT score.

PubMed

VanWagner, Lisa B; Ning, Hongyan; Whitsett, Maureen; Levitsky, Josh; Uttal, Sarah; Wilkins, John T; Abecassis, Michael M; Ladner, Daniela P; Skaro, Anton I; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2017-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk-assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the Cardiovascular Risk in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation risk score, among a cohort of 1,024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model. Among 1,024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included preoperative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the point-based score (C statistic = 0.78, bias-corrected C statistic = 0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.33). The point-based risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at www.carolt.us); this score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. (Hepatology 2017;66:1968-1979). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver

Improving prediction of outcomes in African Americans with normal stress echocardiograms using a risk scoring system.

PubMed

Sutter, David A; Thomaides, Athanasios; Hornsby, Kyle; Mahenthiran, Jothiharan; Feigenbaum, Harvey; Sawada, Stephen G

2013-06-01

Cardiovascular mortality is high in African Americans, and those with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at increased risk. The aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring system to improve the prediction of cardiovascular events in African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography. Clinical data and rest echocardiographic measurements were obtained in 548 consecutive African Americans with normal results on rest and stress echocardiography and ejection fractions ≥50%. Patients were followed for myocardial infarction and death for 3 years. Predictors of cardiovascular events were determined with Cox regression, and hazard ratios were used to determine the number of points in the risk score attributed to each independent predictor. During follow-up of 3 years, 47 patients (8.6%) had events. Five variables-age (≥45 years in men, ≥55 years in women), history of coronary disease, history of smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, and exercise intolerance (<7 METs in men, <5 METs in women, or need for dobutamine stress)-were independent predictors of events. A risk score was derived for each patient (ranging from 0 to 8 risk points). The area under the curve for the risk score was 0.82 with the optimum cut-off risk score of 6. Among patients with risk scores ≥6, 30% had events, compared with 3% with risk score <6 (p <0.001). In conclusion, African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at significant risk for cardiovascular events. A risk score can be derived from clinical and echocardiographic variables, which can accurately distinguish high- and low-risk patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Geographic Distribution of Genetic Risk as Compared to Social Risk for Chronic Diseases in the United States.

PubMed

Rehkopf, David H; Domingue, Benjamin W; Cullen, Mark R

2016-01-01

There is an association between chronic disease and geography, and there is evidence that the environment plays a critical role in this relationship. Yet at the same time, there is known to be substantial geographic variation by ancestry across the United States. Resulting geographic genetic variation-that is, the extent to which single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to chronic disease vary spatially-could thus drive some part of the association between geography and disease. We describe the variation in chronic disease genetic risk by state of birth by taking risk SNPs from genome-wide association study meta-analyses for coronary artery disease, diabetes, and ischemic stroke and creating polygenic risk scores. We compare the amount of variability across state of birth in these polygenic scores to the variability in parental education, own education, earnings, and wealth. Our primary finding is that the polygenic risk scores are only weakly differentially distributed across U.S. states. The magnitude of the differences in geographic distribution is very small in comparison to the distribution of social and economic factors and thus is not likely sufficient to have a meaningful effect on geographic disease differences by U.S. state.

Development of a Risk Prediction Model and Clinical Risk Score for Isolated Tricuspid Valve Surgery.

PubMed

LaPar, Damien J; Likosky, Donald S; Zhang, Min; Theurer, Patty; Fonner, C Edwin; Kern, John A; Bolling, Stephen F; Drake, Daniel H; Speir, Alan M; Rich, Jeffrey B; Kron, Irving L; Prager, Richard L; Ailawadi, Gorav

2018-02-01

While tricuspid valve (TV) operations remain associated with high mortality (∼8-10%), no robust prediction models exist to support clinical decision-making. We developed a preoperative clinical risk model with an easily calculable clinical risk score (CRS) to predict mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery. Multi-state Society of Thoracic Surgeons database records were evaluated for 2,050 isolated TV repair and replacement operations for any etiology performed at 50 hospitals (2002-2014). Parsimonious preoperative risk prediction models were developed using multi-level mixed effects regression to estimate mortality and composite major morbidity risk. Model results were utilized to establish a novel CRS for patients undergoing TV operations. Models were evaluated for discrimination and calibration. Operative mortality and composite major morbidity rates were 9% and 42%, respectively. Final regression models performed well (both P<0.001, AUC = 0.74 and 0.76) and included preoperative factors: age, gender, stroke, hemodialysis, ejection fraction, lung disease, NYHA class, reoperation and urgent or emergency status (all P<0.05). A simple CRS from 0-10+ was highly associated (P<0.001) with incremental increases in predicted mortality and major morbidity. Predicted mortality risk ranged from 2%-34% across CRS categories, while predicted major morbidity risk ranged from 13%-71%. Mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery can be predicted using preoperative patient data from the STS Adult Cardiac Database. A simple clinical risk score predicts mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery. This score may facilitate perioperative counseling and identification of suitable patients for TV surgery. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

PubMed

Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

2013-09-01

To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

Infant and toddler disease score was useful for risk of hospitalization based on data from administrative claims.

PubMed

Mikaeloff, Yann; Moride, Yola; Khoshnood, Babak; Weill, Alain; Bréart, Gérard

2007-07-01

To develop the infant and toddler disease score (IDS), a population-based predictive tool of morbidity status in infants and toddlers, based on data from administrative claims. A prospective cohort study was conducted, including 35,580 children less than 2 years of age in June 2003 from the French "ERASME" database (mean follow-up 13 months). The outcome variable was incident hospitalization during the follow-up year, that is, before the second birthday for infants and before the third for toddlers. Risk factors before inclusion (age, health care use, medications) were assessed in a 50% random sample (construction sample) by a logistic regression model. Beta coefficients were summed up to obtain the IDS. The IDS was then validated for the remaining 50% of the study population (validation sample). The major variables significantly associated with the outcome were long-term disability, younger age, and >or=1 hospitalization before inclusion. The risks of hospitalization estimated by the IDS were concordant in the construction and validation samples. The IDS is a useful index for the risk of hospitalization of infants and toddlers in relation to their morbidity status and may be used for adjustment in pharmacoepidemiologic studies using administrative claims databases.

Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM) correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK) ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK), 4.4% (SCORE) and 14.5% (Framingham) had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only) and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females. PMID:21366925

Comparison between the Framingham and prospective cardiovascular of Münster scores for risk assessment of coronary heart disease in human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients in Pernambuco, Brazil.

PubMed

Barros, Zoraya Medeiros; de Alencar Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes; Miranda-Filho, Demócrito Barros; de Albuquerque, Maria de Fátima Pessoa Militão; Melo, Heloísa Ramos Lacerda; Carvalho, Erico Higino; Gelenske, Thais; Diniz, George; Bandeira, Francisco

2010-12-01

The Framingham score is used in most studies on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients to estimate the risk for coronary heart disease; however, it may have some limitations for detecting risk among these individuals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the agreement between the Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular of Münster (PROCAM) scores among HIV-positive individuals and to investigate the factors associated with disagreement between the two scores. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a population of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients attending the outpatient's clinics of two reference centers for HIV/AIDS in Pernambuco, Brazil. Agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores was evaluated using the kappa index. From this analysis, a variable called "disagreement between scores" was created, and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to investigate the factors associated with this variable. The prevalence of low, moderate, and high risk were, respectively, 78.7%, 13.5%, and 7.8% by Framingham score and 88.5%, 4.3%, and 7.2% by PROCAM (kappa = 0.64, P ≤ 0.0001). Agreement in the subgroup with metabolic syndrome by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) (kappa = 0.51, P ≤ 0.0001) and the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) (kappa = 0.59, P ≤ 0.0001) criteria was moderate. The Framingham score identified greater proportion of women with moderate risk. Factors independently associated with disagreement were: smoking, sex, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, and metabolic syndrome. There was a good agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores in HIV-positive patients, but a higher proportion of moderate-high risk was identified by the Framingham score. This disagreement should be evaluated in cohort studies to observe clinical outcomes over the course of time.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk scores: Who, when and why?

PubMed Central

Monteiro, Sara; Gonçalves, Tiago Cúrdia; Magalhães, Joana; Cotter, José

2016-01-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the complications, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact. PMID:26909231

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of

Coronary artery calcium scoring does not add prognostic value to standard 64-section CT angiography protocol in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Kwon, Sung Woo; Kim, Young Jin; Shim, Jaemin; Sung, Ji Min; Han, Mi Eun; Kang, Dong Won; Kim, Ji-Ye; Choi, Byoung Wook; Chang, Hyuk-Jae

2011-04-01

To evaluate the prognostic outcome of cardiac computed tomography (CT) for prediction of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease (CAD) and to explore the differential prognostic values of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and coronary CT angiography. Institutional review committee approval and informed consent were obtained. In 4338 patients who underwent 64-section CT for evaluation of suspected CAD, both CAC scoring and CT angiography were concurrently performed by using standard scanning protocols. Follow-up clinical outcome data regarding composite MACEs were procured. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict MACEs. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for CAC scoring and coronary CT angiography. During the mean follow-up of 828 days ± 380, there were 105 MACEs, for an event rate of 3%. The presence of obstructive CAD at coronary CT angiography had independent prognostic value, which escalated according to the number of stenosed vessels (P < .001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, the superiority of coronary CT angiography to CAC scoring was demonstrated by a significantly greater area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.892 vs 0.810, P < .001), whereas no significant incremental value for the addition of CAC scoring to coronary CT angiography was established (AUC = 0.892 for coronary CT angiography alone vs 0.902 with addition of CAC scoring, P = .198). Coronary CT angiography is better than CAC scoring in predicting MACEs in low-risk patients suspected of having CAD. Furthermore, the current standard multisection CT protocol (coronary CT angiography combined with CAC scoring) has no incremental prognostic value compared with coronary CT angiography alone. Therefore, in terms of determining prognosis, CAC scoring may no longer need to be incorporated in the cardiac CT protocol in this population. © RSNA, 2011.

Top Altmetric Scores in the Parkinson’s Disease Literature

PubMed Central

Araújo, Rui; Sorensen, Aaron A.; Konkiel, Stacy; Bloem, Bastiaan R.

2017-01-01

A new class of social web-based metrics for scholarly publications (altmetrics) has surfaced as a complement to traditional citation-based metrics. Our aim was to study and characterize those recent papers in the field of Parkinson’s disease which had received the highest Altmetric Attention Scores and to compare this attention measure to the traditional metrics. The top 20 papers in our analysis covered a variety of topics, mainly new disease mechanisms, treatment options and risk factors for the development of PD. The main media sources for these high attention papers were news items and Twitter. The papers were published predominantly in high impact journals, suggesting a correlation between altmetrics and conventional metrics. One paper published in a relatively modest journal received a significant amount of attention, reflecting that public attention does not always parallel the traditional metrics. None of the most influential papers in PD, as reviewed by Ponce and Lozano (2011) made it to our list, suggesting that recent publications receive higher attention scores, and that altmetrics may omit older, seminal work in the field. PMID:28222540

Health-risk appraisal with or without disease management for worksite cardiovascular risk reduction.

PubMed

Maron, David J; Forbes, Barbara L; Groves, Jay R; Dietrich, Mary S; Sells, Patrick; DiGenio, Andres G

2008-01-01

Worksite health promotion programs use health risk appraisal (HRA) surveys to identify employees at increased risk, then provide a range of interventions to encourage high-risk individuals to improve their health. Our objective was to determine how the intensity of intervention after HRA affected cardiovascular risk after 1 year, comparing individual follow-up counseling with environmental supports. 133 employees of Vanderbilt University with cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned to worksite HRA plus targeted disease management (DM group) or HRA plus information about worksite health promotion programs (HRA group). The DM group received longitudinal individualized counseling for risk reduction, whereas the HRA group members received one feedback session about their risk factors and information about free worksite health promotion programs. The main outcome measure was the difference between groups in the change in average Framingham risk score from baseline to 1 year. There was no significant baseline difference between groups in the Framingham risk score. Among DM participants, the mean (SD) Framingham risk score decreased by 22.6%; among HRA participants, the mean score rose by 4.3% (P = .017 for the difference between groups). In this study of employees with cardiovascular risk factors, HRA followed by individual counseling was more effective than providing information about free worksite health promotion programs.

Using an Alzheimer Disease Polygenic Risk Score to Predict Memory Decline in Black and White Americans Over 14 Years of Follow-up.

PubMed

Marden, Jessica R; Mayeda, Elizabeth R; Walter, Stefan; Vivot, Alexandre; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Kawachi, Ichiro; Glymour, M Maria

2016-01-01

Evidence on whether genetic predictors of Alzheimer disease (AD) also predict memory decline is inconsistent, and limited data are available for African ancestry populations. For 8253 non-Hispanic white (NHW) and non-Hispanic black (NHB) Health and Retirement Study participants with memory scores measured 1 to 8 times between 1998 and 2012 (average baseline age=62), we calculated weighted polygenic risk scores [AD Genetic Risk Score (AD-GRS)] using the top 22 AD-associated loci, and an alternative score excluding apolipoprotein E (APOE) (AD-GRSexAPOE). We used generalized linear models with AD-GRS-by-age and AD-GRS-by-age interactions (age centered at 70) to predict memory decline. Average NHB decline was 26% faster than NHW decline (P<0.001). Among NHW, 10% higher AD-GRS predicted faster memory decline (linear β=-0.058 unit decrease over 10 y; 95% confidence interval,-0.074 to -0.043). AD-GRSexAPOE also predicted faster decline for NHW, although less strongly. Among NHB, AD-GRS predicted faster memory decline (linear β=-0.050; 95% confidence interval, -0.106 to 0.006), but AD-GRSexAPOE did not. Our nonsignificant estimate among NHB may reflect insufficient statistical power or a misspecified AD-GRS among NHB as an overwhelming majority of genome-wide association studies are conducted in NHW. A polygenic score based on previously identified AD loci predicts memory loss in US blacks and whites.

Comparative Evaluation of Four Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter-defibrillator for Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; Abu Assi, Emad; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Díaz-Infante, Ernesto; García-Bolao, Ignacio; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Andrés Lahuerta, Ana; Expósito-García, Víctor; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Arce-León, Álvaro; Barrio-López, María Teresa; Peinado, Rafael; Martínez-Sande, Luis; Arias, Miguel A

2016-11-01

Several clinical risk scores have been developed to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality despite implantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We aimed to examine and compare the predictive capacity of 4 simple scoring systems (MADIT-II, FADES, PACE and SHOCKED) for predicting mortality after defibrillator implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in a Mediterranean country. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutive patients referred for defibrillator implantation between January 2010 and December 2011 were included. A total of 916 patients with ischemic and nonischemic heart disease were included (mean age, 62 ± 11 years, 81.4% male). Over 33.4 ± 12.9 months, 113 (12.3%) patients died (cardiovascular origin in 86 [9.4%] patients). At 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, mortality rates were 4.5%, 7.6%, 10.8%, and 12.3% respectively. All the risk scores showed a stepwise increase in the risk of death throughout the scoring system of each of the scores and all 4 scores identified patients at greater risk of mortality. The scores were significantly associated with all-cause mortality throughout the follow-up period. PACE displayed the lowest c-index value regardless of whether the population had heart disease of ischemic (c-statistic = 0.61) or nonischemic origin (c-statistic = 0.61), whereas MADIT-II (c-statistic = 0.67 and 0.65 in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy, respectively), SHOCKED (c-statistic = 0.68 and 0.66, respectively), and FADES (c-statistic = 0.66 and 0.60) provided similar c-statistic values (P ≥ .09). In this nontrial-based cohort of Mediterranean patients, the 4 evaluated risk scores showed a significant stepwise increase in the risk of death. Among the currently available risk scores, MADIT-II, FADES, and SHOCKED provide slightly better performance than PACE. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All

Coronary risk stratification of patients undergoing surgery for valvular heart disease.

PubMed

Hasselbalch, Rasmus Bo; Engstrøm, Thomas; Pries-Heje, Mia; Heitmann, Merete; Pedersen, Frants; Schou, Morten; Mickley, Hans; Elming, Hanne; Steffensen, Rolf; Køber, Lars; Iversen, Kasper

2017-01-15

Multislice computed tomography (MSCT) is a non-invasive, less expensive, low-radiation alternative to coronary angiography (CAG) prior to valvular heart surgery. MSCT has a high negative predictive value for coronary artery disease (CAD) but previous studies of patients with valvular disease have shown that MSCT, as the primary evaluation technique, lead to re-evaluation with CAG in about a third of cases and it is therefore not recommended. If a subgroup of patients with low- to intermediate risk of CAD could be identified and examined with MSCT, it could be cost-effective, reduce radiation and the risk of complications associated with CAG. The study cohort was derived from a national registry of patients undergoing CAG prior to valvular heart surgery. Using logistic regression, we identified significant risk factors for CAD and developed a risk score (CT-valve score). The score was validated on a similar cohort of patients from another registry. The study cohort consisted of 2221 patients, 521 (23.5%) had CAD. The validation cohort consisted of 2575 patients, 771 (29.9%) had CAD. The identified risk factors were male sex, age, smoking, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, aortic valve disease, extracardiac arteriopathy, ejection fraction <30% and diabetes mellitus. CT-valve score could identify a third of the population with a risk about 10%. A score based on risk factors of CAD can identify patients that might benefit from using MSCT as a gatekeeper to CAG prior to heart valve surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pathway-Specific Aggregate Biomarker Risk Score Is Associated With Burden of Coronary Artery Disease and Predicts Near-Term Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Death

PubMed Central

Ghasemzadeh, Nima; Hayek, Salim S.; Ko, Yi-An; Eapen, Danny J.; Patel, Riyaz S.; Manocha, Pankaj; Kassem, Hatem Al; Khayata, Mohamed; Veledar, Emir; Kremastinos, Dimitrios; Thorball, Christian W.; Pielak, Tomasz; Sikora, Sergey; Zafari, A. Maziar; Lerakis, Stamatios; Sperling, Laurence; Vaccarino, Viola; Epstein, Stephen E.; Quyyumi, Arshed A.

2018-01-01

Background Inflammation, coagulation, and cell stress contribute to atherosclerosis and its adverse events. A biomarker risk score (BRS) based on the circulating levels of biomarkers C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation products, and heat shock protein-70 representing these 3 pathways was a strong predictor of future outcomes. We investigated whether soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), a marker of immune activation, is predictive of outcomes independent of the aforementioned markers and whether its addition to a 3-BRS improves risk reclassification. Methods and Results C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation product, heat shock protein-70, and suPAR were measured in 3278 patients undergoing coronary angiography. The BRS was calculated by counting the number of biomarkers above a cutoff determined using the Youden’s index. Survival analyses were performed using models adjusted for traditional risk factors. A high suPAR level ≥3.5 ng/mL was associated with all-cause death and myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.43–2.35) after adjustment for risk factors, C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation product, and heat shock protein-70. Addition of suPAR to the 3-BRS significantly improved the C statistic, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification index for the primary outcome. A BRS of 1, 2, 3, or 4 was associated with a 1.81-, 2.59-, 6.17-, and 8.80-fold increase, respectively, in the risk of death and myocardial infarction. The 4-BRS was also associated with severity of coronary artery disease and composite end points. Conclusions SuPAR is independently predictive of adverse outcomes, and its addition to a 3-BRS comprising C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation product, and heat shock protein-70 improved risk reclassification. The clinical utility of using a 4-BRS for risk prediction and management of patients with coronary artery disease warrants further study. PMID:28280039

Pathway-Specific Aggregate Biomarker Risk Score Is Associated With Burden of Coronary Artery Disease and Predicts Near-Term Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Death.

PubMed

Ghasemzedah, Nima; Hayek, Salim S; Ko, Yi-An; Eapen, Danny J; Patel, Riyaz S; Manocha, Pankaj; Al Kassem, Hatem; Khayata, Mohamed; Veledar, Emir; Kremastinos, Dimitrios; Thorball, Christian W; Pielak, Tomasz; Sikora, Sergey; Zafari, A Maziar; Lerakis, Stamatios; Sperling, Laurence; Vaccarino, Viola; Epstein, Stephen E; Quyyumi, Arshed A

2017-03-01

Inflammation, coagulation, and cell stress contribute to atherosclerosis and its adverse events. A biomarker risk score (BRS) based on the circulating levels of biomarkers C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation products, and heat shock protein-70 representing these 3 pathways was a strong predictor of future outcomes. We investigated whether soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), a marker of immune activation, is predictive of outcomes independent of the aforementioned markers and whether its addition to a 3-BRS improves risk reclassification. C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation product, heat shock protein-70, and suPAR were measured in 3278 patients undergoing coronary angiography. The BRS was calculated by counting the number of biomarkers above a cutoff determined using the Youden's index. Survival analyses were performed using models adjusted for traditional risk factors. A high suPAR level ≥3.5 ng/mL was associated with all-cause death and myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-2.35) after adjustment for risk factors, C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation product, and heat shock protein-70. Addition of suPAR to the 3-BRS significantly improved the C statistic, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification index for the primary outcome. A BRS of 1, 2, 3, or 4 was associated with a 1.81-, 2.59-, 6.17-, and 8.80-fold increase, respectively, in the risk of death and myocardial infarction. The 4-BRS was also associated with severity of coronary artery disease and composite end points. SuPAR is independently predictive of adverse outcomes, and its addition to a 3-BRS comprising C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation product, and heat shock protein-70 improved risk reclassification. The clinical utility of using a 4-BRS for risk prediction and management of patients with coronary artery disease warrants further study. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

PubMed

Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Destefano, Anita L; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A; Decarli, Charles; Ikram, M Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, W T; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

2014-02-01

Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

Risk scores for outcome in bacterial meningitis: Systematic review and external validation study.

PubMed

Bijlsma, Merijn W; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Bossuyt, Patrick M; Heymans, Martijn W; van der Ende, Arie; Tanck, Michael W T; van de Beek, Diederik

2016-11-01

To perform an external validation study of risk scores, identified through a systematic review, predicting outcome in community-acquired bacterial meningitis. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for articles published between January 1960 and August 2014. Performance was evaluated in 2108 episodes of adult community-acquired bacterial meningitis from two nationwide prospective cohort studies by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve, calibration slope or Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the distribution of calculated risks. Nine risk scores were identified predicting death, neurological deficit or death, or unfavorable outcome at discharge in bacterial meningitis, pneumococcal meningitis and invasive meningococcal disease. Most studies had shortcomings in design, analyses, and reporting. Evaluation showed AUCs of 0.59 (0.57-0.61) and 0.74 (0.71-0.76) in bacterial meningitis, 0.67 (0.64-0.70) in pneumococcal meningitis, and 0.81 (0.73-0.90), 0.82 (0.74-0.91), 0.84 (0.75-0.93), 0.84 (0.76-0.93), 0.85 (0.75-0.95), and 0.90 (0.83-0.98) in meningococcal meningitis. Calibration curves showed adequate agreement between predicted and observed outcomes for four scores, but statistical tests indicated poor calibration of all risk scores. One score could be recommended for the interpretation and design of bacterial meningitis studies. None of the existing scores performed well enough to recommend routine use in individual patient management. Copyright © 2016 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score, cardiovascular risk stratification and a strategy for secondary prevention with ezetimibe.

PubMed

Simon, Tracey G; Corey, Kathleen E; Cannon, Christopher P; Blazing, Michael; Park, Jeong-Gun; O'Donoghue, Michelle L; Chung, Raymond T; Giugliano, Robert P

2018-05-26

The nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) is comprised of unique metabolic risk indicators that may accurately predict residual cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with established coronary disease and metabolic dysfunction. We applied the NFS prospectively to 14,819 post-ACS patients randomized to ezetimibe/simvastatin (E/S) or placebo/simvastatin (P/S), in the IMPROVE-IT trial, using validated NFS cutoffs. The primary endpoint included CV death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, revascularization or stroke. Outcomes were compared between NFS categories and treatment arms using frequency of events, KM rates and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. The ability of the NFS to predict recurrent CV events was independently validated in 5395 placebo-treated patients enrolled in the SOLID-TIMI 52 trial. Among 14,819 patients enrolled in IMPROVE-IT, 14.2% (N = 2106) were high-risk (NFS > 0.67). The high-risk group had a 30% increased risk of recurrent major CV events, compared to the low-risk NFS group (HR 1.30 [1.19-1.43]; p < 0.001). Among high-risk patients, ezetimibe/simvastatin conferred a 3.7% absolute reduction in risk of recurrent CV events, compared to placebo/simvastatin (HR 0.85 [0.74-0.98]), translating to a number-needed-to-treat of 27. Similar benefit was not found in the low-risk group (HR ezetimibe/simvastatin vs. placebo/simvastatin, 1.01 [0.91-1.12]; p-interaction = 0.053). The relationship between NFS category and recurrent CV events was independently validated in patients enrolled in SOLID-TIMI 52 (HR for NFS > 0.67 vs. NFS < -1.455 = 1.55 [1.32-1.81]; p < 0.001). Stratification of cardiovascular risk by NFS identifies an independent population of patients who are at highest risk of recurrent events, and most likely to benefit from dual lipid-lowering therapy. Clinical trials.gov: NCT00202878. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and Application of a Plant-Based Diet Scoring System for Japanese Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

PubMed Central

Chiba, Mitsuro; Nakane, Kunio; Takayama, Yuko; Sugawara, Kae; Ohno, Hideo; Ishii, Hajime; Tsuda, Satoko; Tsuji, Tsuyotoshi; Komatsu, Masafumi; Sugawara, Takeshi

2016-01-01

Context Plant-based diets (PBDs) are a healthy alternative to westernized diets. A semivegetarian diet, a PBD, has been shown to prevent a relapse in Crohn disease. However, there is no way to measure adherence to PBDs. Objective To develop a simple way of evaluating adherence to a PBD for Japanese patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Design PBD scores were assigned according to the frequency of consumption provided on a food-frequency questionnaire, obtained on hospitalization for 159 patients with ulcerative colitis and 70 patients with Crohn disease. Eight items considered to be preventive factors for IBD were scored positively, and 8 items considered to be IBD risk factors were scored negatively. The PBD score was calculated from the sum of plus and minus scores. Higher PBD scores indicated greater adherence to a PBD. The PBD scores were evaluated on hospitalization and 2 years after discharge for 22 patients with Crohn disease whose dietary pattern and prognosis were established. Main Outcome Measure Plant-Based Diet score. Results The PBD scores differed significantly, in descending order, by dietary type: pro-Japanese diet, mixed type, and pro-westernized diet (Wilcoxon/Kruskal-Wallis test). The PBD scores in the ulcerative colitis and Crohn disease groups were 10.9 ± 9.5 and 8.2 ± 8.2, respectively. For patients with Crohn disease, those with long-term remission and normal C-reactive protein concentration were significantly more likely to have PBD scores of 25 or greater than below 25 (χ2). Conclusion The PBD score is a valid assessment of PBD dietary adherence. PMID:27768566

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores.

PubMed

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond; Schrimpf, Paul

2016-04-01

"Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of "perfect" risk scoring under a given contract.

A Danish diabetes risk score for targeted screening: the Inter99 study.

PubMed

Glümer, Charlotte; Carstensen, Bendix; Sandbaek, Annelli; Lauritzen, Torsten; Jørgensen, Torben; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

2004-03-01

To develop a simple self-administered questionnaire identifying individuals with undiagnosed diabetes with a sensitivity of 75% and minimizing the high-risk group needing subsequent testing. A population-based sample (Inter99 study) of 6,784 individuals aged 30-60 years completed a questionnaire on diabetes-related symptoms and risk factors. The participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. The risk score was derived from the first half and validated on the second half of the study population. External validation was performed based on the Danish Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION) pilot study. The risk score was developed by stepwise backward multiple logistic regression. The final risk score included age, sex, BMI, known hypertension, physical activity at leisure time, and family history of diabetes, items independently and significantly (P<0.05) associated with the presence of previously undiagnosed diabetes. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.804 (95% CI 0.765-0.838) for the first half of the Inter99 population, 0.761 (0.720-0.803) for the second half of the Inter99 population, and 0.803 (0.721-0.876) for the ADDITION pilot study. The sensitivity, specificity, and percentage that needed subsequent testing were 76, 72, and 29%, respectively. The false-negative individuals in the risk score had a lower absolute risk of ischemic heart disease compared with the true-positive individuals (11.3 vs. 20.4%; P<0.0001). We developed a questionnaire to be used in a stepwise screening strategy for type 2 diabetes, decreasing the numbers of subsequent tests and thereby possibly minimizing the economical and personal costs of the screening strategy.

Evaluation of prenatal risk factors for prediction of outcome in right heart lesions: CVP score in fetal right heart defects.

PubMed

Neves, Ana Luisa; Mathias, Leigh; Wilhm, Marilyn; Leshko, Jennifer; Linask, Kersti K; Henriques-Coelho, Tiago; Areias, José C; Huhta, James C

2014-09-01

To determine the prenatal variables predicting the risk of perinatal death in congenital right heart defects. Retrospective analysis of 28 fetuses with right heart defects was performed. Logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain odds ratios (OR) for the relationship between the risk of death and echocardiographic parameters. The parameters that correlated with the outcome were incorporated in an attempt to devise a disease-specific cardiovascular profile score. Fetal echocardiograms (143) from 28 patients were analyzed. The cardiovascular profile score predicted the risk of death. A lower right ventricle (RV) pressure was associated with mortality (OR 0.959; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.940-0.978). Higher peak aortic velocity through the aortic valve (OR 0.104; 95% CI 0.020-0.529) was associated with a better outcome. These cardiac function parameters were incorporated in a modified disease-specific CVP Score. Patients with a mean modified cardiovascular profile score of ≤ 6 were over 3.7 times more likely to die than those with scores of 7-10. The original Cardiovascular Profile Score predicted the risk of death in right heart defects. The modified score was not validated as a good prediction tool by this study. Fetal RV pressure estimate and peak aortic velocity can be used as independent prognostic predictors.

A biomarker-based risk score to predict death in patients with atrial fibrillation: the ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history) death risk score

PubMed Central

Hijazi, Ziad; Oldgren, Jonas; Lindbäck, Johan; Alexander, John H; Connolly, Stuart J; Eikelboom, John W; Ezekowitz, Michael D; Held, Claes; Hylek, Elaine M; Lopes, Renato D; Yusuf, Salim; Granger, Christopher B; Siegbahn, Agneta; Wallentin, Lars

2018-01-01

Abstract Aims In atrial fibrillation (AF), mortality remains high despite effective anticoagulation. A model predicting the risk of death in these patients is currently not available. We developed and validated a risk score for death in anticoagulated patients with AF including both clinical information and biomarkers. Methods and results The new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 611 patients with AF randomized to apixaban vs. warfarin for a median of 1.9 years. External validation was performed in 8548 patients with AF randomized to dabigatran vs. warfarin for 2.0 years. Biomarker samples were obtained at study entry. Variables significantly contributing to the prediction of all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox-regression. Each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. There were 1047 all-cause deaths in the derivation and 594 in the validation cohort. The most important predictors of death were N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin-T, growth differentiation factor-15, age, and heart failure, and these were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history)-death risk score. The score was well-calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than a model based on all clinical variables in both the derivation (0.74 vs. 0.68) and validation cohorts (0.74 vs. 0.67). The reduction in mortality with apixaban was most pronounced in patients with a high ABC-death score. Conclusion A new biomarker-based score for predicting risk of death in anticoagulated AF patients was developed, internally and externally validated, and well-calibrated in two large cohorts. The ABC-death risk score performed well and may contribute to overall risk assessment in AF. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00412984 and NCT00262600 PMID:29069359

Assessment of Diabetes Risk in an Adult Population Using Indian Diabetes Risk Score in an Urban Resettlement Colony of Delhi.

PubMed

Acharya, Anita Shankar; Singh, Anshu; Dhiman, Balraj

2017-03-01

Diabetes mellitus is one of the non-communicable diseases which has become a major global health problem whose prevalence is increasing worldwide and is expected to reach 4.4% by 2030. The risk of diabetes escalates with increase in the number of risk factors and their duration as well. The Indian Diabetic Risk Score (IDRS) is a simple, low cost, feasible tool for mass screening programme at the community level. To assess the risk score of diabetes among the study subjects using IDRS. A cross sectional survey was conducted on adults >30 years (n=580) on both gender in an urban resettlement colony of Delhi during December 2013 to March 2015. A Semi-structured interview schedule consisting of Socio-demographic characteristics, risk factor profile and Indian Diabetes Risk Score was used. Data was entered and analyzed in SPSS. Out of 580 subjects, 31 (5.3%) study subjects were not at risk of having diabetes, rest 94.5% were at moderate or high risk of diabetes.A statistically significant association of diabetes risk with marital status(p=0.0001), education(0.005),body mass index(0.049) and systolic blood pressure was seen.(p=0.006). More than 90% of the study subjects were at risk of having diabetes, hence screening is of utmost importance so that interventions can be initiated at an early stage.

Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System for Severe Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Aoki, Tomonori; Nagata, Naoyoshi; Shimbo, Takuro; Niikura, Ryota; Sakurai, Toshiyuki; Moriyasu, Shiori; Okubo, Hidetaka; Sekine, Katsunori; Watanabe, Kazuhiro; Yokoi, Chizu; Yanase, Mikio; Akiyama, Junichi; Mizokami, Masashi; Uemura, Naomi

2016-11-01

We aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to determine the risk of severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) and predict patient outcomes. We first performed a retrospective analysis of data from 439 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Japan, from January 2009 through December 2013. We used data on comorbidities, medication, presenting symptoms, and vital signs, and laboratory test results to develop a scoring system for severe LGIB (defined as continuous and/or recurrent bleeding). We validated the risk score in a prospective study of 161 patients with acute LGIB admitted to the same center from April 2014 through April 2015. We assessed the system's accuracy in predicting patient outcome using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) analysis. All patients underwent colonoscopy. In the first study, 29% of the patients developed severe LGIB. We devised a risk scoring system based on nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure of 100 mm Hg or lower, antiplatelet drugs use, albumin level less than 3.0 g/dL, disease scores of 2 or higher, and syncope (NOBLADS), which all were independent correlates of severe LGIB. Severe LGIB developed in 75.7% of patients with scores of 5 or higher compared with 2% of patients without any of the factors correlated with severe LGIB (P < .001). The NOBLADS score determined the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.77. In the validation (second) study, severe LGIB developed in 35% of patients; the NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.76. Higher NOBLADS scores were associated with a requirement for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, and intervention (P < .05 for trend). We developed and validated a scoring system for risk of severe LGIB based on 8 factors (NOBLADS score). The system also determined the risk for blood transfusion, longer

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

PubMed

Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

PubMed Central

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond

2016-01-01

“Big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract. PMID:27429712

Preoperative risk factors for conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy: a validated risk score derived from a prospective U.K. database of 8820 patients.

PubMed

Sutcliffe, Robert P; Hollyman, Marianne; Hodson, James; Bonney, Glenn; Vohra, Ravi S; Griffiths, Ewen A

2016-11-01

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy is commonly performed, and several factors increase the risk of open conversion, prolonging operating time and hospital stay. Preoperative stratification would improve consent, scheduling and identify appropriate training cases. The aim of this study was to develop a validated risk score for conversion for use in clinical practice. Preoperative patient and disease-related variables were identified from a prospective cholecystectomy database (CholeS) of 8820 patients, divided into main and validation sets. Preoperative predictors of conversion were identified by multivariable binary logistic regression. A risk score was developed and validated using a forward stepwise approach. Some 297 procedures (3.4%) were converted. The risk score was derived from six significant predictors: age (p = 0.005), sex (p < 0.001), indication for surgery (p < 0.001), ASA (p < 0.001), thick-walled gallbladder (p = 0.040) and CBD diameter (p = 0.004). Testing the score on the validation set yielded an AUROC = 0.766 (p < 0.001), and a score >6 identified patients at high risk of conversion (7.1% vs. 1.2%). This validated risk score allows preoperative identification of patients at six-fold increased risk of conversion to open cholecystectomy. Copyright © 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk.

PubMed

Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2017-11-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (p<0.05). A progressive increase in the relative risk occurred as the number of movements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

PubMed

Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

2015-12-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Asian validation of the TIMI risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Selvarajah, Sharmini; Fong, Alan Yean Yip; Selvaraj, Gunavathy; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Bots, Michiel L

2012-01-01

Risk stratification in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is important, such that the most resource intensive strategy is used to achieve the greatest clinical benefit. This is essential in developing countries with wide variation in health care facilities, scarce resources and increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study sought to validate the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI in a multi-ethnic developing country. Data from a national, prospective, observational registry of acute coronary syndromes was used. The TIMI risk score was evaluated in 4701 patients who presented with STEMI. Model discrimination and calibration was tested in the overall population and in subgroups of patients that were at higher risk of mortality; i.e., diabetics and those with renal impairment. Compared to the TIMI population, this study population was younger, had more chronic conditions, more severe index events and received treatment later. The TIMI risk score was strongly associated with 30-day mortality. Discrimination was good for the overall study population (c statistic 0.785) and in the high risk subgroups; diabetics (c statistic 0.764) and renal impairment (c statistic 0.761). Calibration was good for the overall study population and diabetics, with χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.936 and 0.983 respectively, but poor for those with renal impairment, χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.006. The TIMI risk score is valid and can be used for risk stratification of STEMI patients for better targeted treatment.

Genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure increases risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese.

PubMed

Lu, Xiangfeng; Huang, Jianfeng; Wang, Laiyuan; Chen, Shufeng; Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Cao, Jie; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Zhao, Liancheng; Li, Hongfan; Liu, Fangcao; Huang, Chen; Shen, Chong; Shen, Jinjin; Yu, Ling; Xu, Lihua; Mu, Jianjun; Wu, Xianping; Ji, Xu; Guo, Dongshuang; Zhou, Zhengyuan; Yang, Zili; Wang, Renping; Yang, Jun; Yan, Weili; Gu, Dongfeng

2015-10-01

Although multiple genetic markers associated with blood pressure have been identified by genome-wide association studies, their aggregate effect on risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease is uncertain, particularly among East Asian who may have different genetic and environmental exposures from Europeans. We aimed to examine the association between genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure and risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease in 26 262 individuals in 2 Chinese population-based prospective cohorts. A genetic risk score was calculated based on 22 established variants for blood pressure in East Asian. We found the genetic risk score was significantly and independently associated with linear increases in blood pressure and risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease (P range from 4.57×10(-3) to 3.10×10(-6)). In analyses adjusted for traditional risk factors including blood pressure, individuals carrying most blood pressure-related risk alleles (top quintile of genetic score distribution) had 40% (95% confidence interval, 18-66) and 26% (6-45) increased risk for incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease, respectively, when compared with individuals in the bottom quintile. The genetic risk score also significantly improved discrimination for incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease and led to modest improvements in risk reclassification for cardiovascular disease (all the P<0.05). Our data indicate that genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure is an independent risk factor for blood pressure increase and incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease and provides modest incremental information to cardiovascular disease risk prediction. The potential clinical use of this panel of blood pressure-associated polymorphisms remains to be determined. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Genetic polymorphisms associated with smoking behaviour predict the risk of surgery in patients with Crohn's disease.

PubMed

Lang, B M; Biedermann, L; van Haaften, W T; de Vallière, C; Schuurmans, M; Begré, S; Zeitz, J; Scharl, M; Turina, M; Greuter, T; Schreiner, P; Heinrich, H; Kuntzen, T; Vavricka, S R; Rogler, G; Beerenwinkel, N; Misselwitz, B

2018-01-01

Smoking is a strong environmental factor leading to adverse outcomes in Crohn's disease, but a more benign course in ulcerative colitis. Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with smoking quantity and behaviour. To assess whether smoking-associated SNPs interact with smoking to influence the clinical course of inflammatory bowel diseases. Genetic and prospectively obtained clinical data from 1434 Swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort patients (821 Crohn's disease and 613 ulcerative colitis) were analysed. Six SNPs associated with smoking quantity and behaviour (rs588765, rs1051730, rs1329650, rs4105144, rs6474412 and rs3733829) were combined to form a risk score (range: 0-12) by adding the number of risk alleles. We calculated multivariate models for smoking, risk of surgery, fistula, Crohn's disease location and ulcerative colitis disease extent. In Crohn's disease patients who smoke, the number of surgeries was associated with the genetic risk score. This translates to a predicted 3.5-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.4- to 5.7-fold, P<.0001) higher number of surgical procedures in smokers with 12 risk alleles than individuals with the lowest risk. Patients with a risk score >7 had a significantly shorter time to first intestinal surgery. The genetic risk score did not predict surgery in ulcerative colitis or occurrence of fistulae in Crohn's disease. SNP rs6265 was associated with ileal disease in Crohn's disease (P<.05) and proctitis in ulcerative colitis (P<.05). SNPs associated with smoking quantity is associated with an increased risk for surgery in Crohn's disease patients who smoke. Our data provide an example of genetics interacting with the environment to influence the disease course of inflammatory bowel disease. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors and the Framingham Risk Score in patients undergoing percutaneous intervention over the last 17 years by gender: time-trend analysis from the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry.

PubMed

Lee, Moo-Sik; Flammer, Andreas J; Kim, Hyun-Soo; Hong, Jee-Young; Li, Jing; Lennon, Ryan J; Lerman, Amir

2014-07-01

This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients at the Mayo Clinic. We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS) and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends. This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients at the Mayo Clinic. We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender

[Clinical scores for the venous thromboembolic disease: an aid for the diagnosis and the treatment?].

PubMed

Junod, A

2015-03-04

The venous thromboembolic disease includes a wide range of conditions from well defined medical entities (pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis), their diagnosis and prognosis, as well as the risk of developping a venous thromboembolic disease in association with hospitalisation for acute medical illness and with cancer. The assessment of the risk of treatment with anticoagulants is also itaken into account. For all these medical situations, numerous (approximately 50) clinical scores have been reported. They will be presented and critically analysed in the next series of 6 articles.

Risk of thromboembolic complications in adult congenital heart disease: A literature review.

PubMed

Karsenty, Clement; Zhao, Alexandre; Marijon, Eloi; Ladouceur, Magalie

2018-05-30

Adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) is a constantly expanding population with challenging issues. Initial medical and surgical treatments are seldom curative, and the majority of patients still experience late sequelae and complications, especially thromboembolic events. These common and potentially life-threating adverse events are probably dramatically underdiagnosed. Better identification and understanding of thromboembolic risk factors are essential to prevent long-term related morbidities. In addition to specific situations associated with a high risk of thromboembolic events (Fontan circulation, cyanotic congenital heart disease), atrial arrhythmia has been recognized as an important risk factor for thromboembolic events in ACHD. Unlike in patients without ACHD, thromboembolic risk stratification scores, such as the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, may not be applicable in ACHD. Overall, after a review of the scientific data published so far, it is clear that the complexity of the underlying congenital heart disease represents a major risk factor for thromboembolic events. As a consequence, prophylactic anticoagulation is indicated in patients with complex congenital heart disease and atrial arrhythmia, regardless of the other risk factors, as opposed to simple heart defects. The landscape of ACHD is an ongoing evolving process, and specific thromboembolic risk scores are needed, especially in the setting of simple heart defects; these should be coupled with specific trials or long-term follow-up of multicentre cohorts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A 19-SNP coronary heart disease gene score profile in subjects with type 2 diabetes: the coronary heart disease risk in type 2 diabetes (CoRDia study) study baseline characteristics.

PubMed

Beaney, Katherine E; Ward, Claire E; Bappa, Dauda A S; McGale, Nadine; Davies, Anna K; Hirani, Shashivadan P; Li, KaWah; Howard, Philip; Vance, Dwaine R; Crockard, Martin A; Lamont, John V; Newman, Stanton; Humphries, Steve E

2016-10-03

The coronary risk in diabetes (CoRDia) trial (n = 211) compares the effectiveness of usual diabetes care with a self-management intervention (SMI), with and without personalised risk information (including genetics), on clinical and behavioural outcomes. Here we present an assessment of randomisation, the cardiac risk genotyping assay, and the genetic characteristics of the recruits. Ten-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk was calculated using the UKPDS score. Genetic CHD risk was determined by genotyping 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using Randox's Cardiac Risk Prediction Array and calculating a gene score (GS). Accuracy of the array was assessed by genotyping a subset of pre-genotyped samples (n = 185). Overall, 10-year CHD risk ranged from 2-72 % but did not differ between the randomisation groups (p = 0.13). The array results were 99.8 % concordant with the pre-determined genotypes. The GS did not differ between the Caucasian participants in the CoRDia SMI plus risk group (n = 66) (p = 0.80) and a sample of UK healthy men (n = 1360). The GS was also associated with LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.05) and family history (p = 0.03) in a sample of UK healthy men (n = 1360). CHD risk is high in this group of T2D subjects. The risk array is an accurate genotyping assay, and is suitable for estimating an individual's genetic CHD risk. Trial registration This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov; registration identifier NCT01891786.

Outcomes for endocarditis surgery in North America: a simplified risk scoring system.

PubMed

Gaca, Jeffrey G; Sheng, Shubin; Daneshmand, Mani A; O'Brien, Sean; Rankin, J Scott; Brennan, J Matthew; Hughes, G Chad; Glower, Donald D; Gammie, James S; Smith, Peter K

2011-01-01

Operation for infective endocarditis is associated with the highest mortality of any valve disease, with overall rates of in-hospital mortality exceeding 20%. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database was examined to develop a simple risk scoring system and identify areas for quality improvement. From 2002 through 2008, 19,543 operations were performed for infective endocarditis. Logistic regression analysis related baseline characteristics to both operative mortality and a composite of mortality and major morbidity within 30 days. Points were assigned to each risk factor, and estimated risk was obtained by averaging events for all patients having the same number of points. Overall unadjusted mortality was 8.2%, and complications occurred in 53%. Significant preoperative risk factors for mortality (associated points) were as follows: emergency, salvage status, or cardiogenic shock (17), preoperative hemodialysis, renal failure, or creatinine level less than 2.0 (12), preoperative inotropic or balloon pump support (10), active (vs treated) endocarditis (10), multiple valve involvement (9), insulin-dependent diabetes (8), arrhythmia (8), previous cardiac surgery (7), urgent status without cardiogenic shock (6), non-insulin-dependent diabetes (6), hypertension (5), and chronic lung disease (5), with a C statistic of 0.7578 (all P < .001). Risk-adjusted mortality and major morbidity were unchanged over the course of the study. In the entire data set, mortality was better if "any valve" was repaired (odds ratio = 0.76; P = .0023). Operative mortality for surgically treated infective endocarditis is substantially lower than reported in-hospital mortality rates for infective endocarditis. The described risk scoring system will inform clinical decision-making in these complex patients. Published by Mosby, Inc.

[Clinical scores for the risk of recurrent VTED and for the relationship cancer-VTED].

PubMed

Junod, Alain

2016-02-17

Clinical scores related to the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolic disease (VTED), to the relationship between cancer and VTED (risk of development of VTED, risk of recurrent VTED, prognosis of pulmonary embolism) and to the risk of cancer following VTED are analysed and commented upon. Although they most often rely on appropriate methodology and are often based on a large number of subjects, they unfortunately provide information that is not necessarily useful for the care of patients. Their use should be considered only when positive impact studies are published.

Cardiovascular Risk Factor Burden in Veterans and Non-Veterans with Parkinson Disease

PubMed Central

Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L.; Müller, Martijn L.T.M; Bohnen, Nicolaas I.

2018-01-01

Background Medical comorbidities, including cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes, influence disease progression in Parkinson disease (PD) and may be variably present in different clinical populations. Objective/Methods We conducted a retrospective nested case-control study of 29 Veterans with PD and 29 non-Veteran PD controls. The groups were matched for age, gender, and disease duration. Both groups underwent clinical and imaging testing as part of their participation in a larger cross-sectional PD observational study at our research center. Veterans were recruited primarily from movement disorders neurology clinics at the Ann Arbor Veterans Affairs (VA) Health System. Non-Veterans were recruited primarily from analogous clinics at the University of Michigan Health System. We explored differences in cardiovascular risks factor burden between the groups. Results Veterans with PD showed higher scores on the simplified Framingham 10-year general cardiovascular disease risk calculator (FR score; 27.3% (11.5) vs. 20.7% (6.8); t = −2.66, p = 0.011) and fewer years of self-reported education (14.5 (2.5) vs. 16.7 (2.6); t = 3.33, p = 0.002). After adjusting for age, disease duration, education, and the use of antihypertensive medications, Veterans showed higher FR scores (t = 2.95, p = 0.005) and a higher intra-subject ratio of FR score to age-and-gender normalized FR score (t = 2.49, p = 0.016), representing an elevated component of modifiable cardiovascular risk factor burden. Conclusion Cardiovascular comorbidities are common in Veterans with PD and may be more severe than in non-Veteran PD populations. These findings merit replication in other representative cohorts. Veterans may be a preferred population for clinical trials evaluating cardiovascular risk factor management on PD progression. PMID:29480230

Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans: Findings from the Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

Foraker, Randi E; Greiner, Melissa; Sims, Mario; Tucker, Katherine L; Towfighi, Amytis; Bidulescu, Aurelian; Shoben, Abigail B; Smith, Sakima; Talegawkar, Sameera; Blackshear, Chad; Wang, Wei; Hardy, Natalie Chantelle; O'Brien, Emily

2016-07-01

Evidence from existing cohort studies supports the prediction of incident coronary heart disease and stroke using 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association's cardiovascular health (CVH) metric. We included all Jackson Heart Study participants with complete scoring information at the baseline study visit (2000-2004) who had no history of stroke (n = 4,140). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to calculate the cumulative incidence of stroke and used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for stroke according to CVD risk and CVH score. We compared the discrimination of the 2 models according to the Harrell c index and plotted predicted vs observed stroke risk calibration plots for each of the 2 models. The median age of the African American participants was 54.5 years, and 65% were female. The cumulative incidence of stroke increased across worsening categories of CVD risk and CVH. A 1-unit increase in CVD risk increased the hazard of stroke (1.07, 1.06-1.08), whereas each 1-unit increase in CVH corresponded to a decreased hazard of stroke (0.76, 0.69-0.83). As evidenced by the c statistics, the CVH model was less discriminating than the CVD risk model (0.59 [0.55-0.64] vs 0.79 [0.76-0.83]). Both scores were associated with incident stroke in a dose-response fashion; however, the CVD risk model was more discriminating than the CVH model. The CVH score may still be preferable for its simplicity in application to broad patient populations and public health efforts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A urinary biomarker-based risk score correlates with multiparametric MRI for prostate cancer detection.

PubMed

Hendriks, Rianne J; van der Leest, Marloes M G; Dijkstra, Siebren; Barentsz, Jelle O; Van Criekinge, Wim; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, Christina A; Schalken, Jack A; Mulders, Peter F A; van Oort, Inge M

2017-10-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostics would greatly benefit from more accurate, non-invasive techniques for the detection of clinically significant disease, leading to a reduction of over-diagnosis and over-treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the association between a novel urinary biomarker-based risk score (SelectMDx), multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) outcomes, and biopsy results for PCa detection. This retrospective observational study used data from the validation study of the SelectMDx score, in which urine was collected after digital rectal examination from men undergoing prostate biopsies. A subset of these patients also underwent a mpMRI scan of the prostate. The indications for performing mpMRI were based on persistent clinical suspicion of PCa or local staging after PCa was found upon biopsy. All mpMRI images were centrally reviewed in 2016 by an experienced radiologist blinded for the urine test results and biopsy outcome. The PI-RADS version 2 was used. In total, 172 patients were included for analysis. Hundred (58%) patients had PCa detected upon prostate biopsy, of which 52 (52%) had high-grade disease correlated with a significantly higher SelectMDx score (P < 0.01). The median SelectMDx score was significantly higher in patients with a suspicious significant lesion on mpMRI compared to no suspicion of significant PCa (P < 0.01). For the prediction of mpMRI outcome, the area-under-the-curve of SelectMDx was 0.83 compared to 0.66 for PSA and 0.65 for PCA3. There was a positive association between SelectMDx score and the final PI-RADS grade. There was a statistically significant difference in SelectMDx score between PI-RADS 3 and 4 (P < 0.01) and between PI-RADS 4 and 5 (P < 0.01). The novel urinary biomarker-based SelectMDx score is a promising tool in PCa detection. This study showed promising results regarding the correlation between the SelectMDx score and mpMRI outcomes, outperforming PCA3. Our results suggest that this risk

Knowledge of heart disease risk in a multicultural community sample of people with diabetes.

PubMed

Wagner, Julie; Lacey, Kimberly; Abbott, Gina; de Groot, Mary; Chyun, Deborah

2006-06-01

Prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) is a primary goal of diabetes management. Unfortunately, CHD risk knowledge is poor among people with diabetes. The objective is to determine predictors of CHD risk knowledge in a community sample of people with diabetes. A total of 678 people with diabetes completed the Heart Disease Facts Questionnaire (HDFQ), a valid and reliable measure of knowledge about the relationship between diabetes and heart disease. In regression analysis with demographics predicting HDFQ scores, sex, annual income, education, and health insurance status predicted HDFQ scores. In a separate regression analysis, having CHD risk factors did not predict HDFQ scores, however, taking medication for CHD risk factors did predict higher HDFQ scores. An analysis of variance showed significant differences between ethnic groups for HDFQ scores; Whites (M = 20.9) showed more CHD risk knowledge than African Americans (M = 19.6), who in turn showed more than Latinos (M = 18.2). Asians scored near Whites (M = 20.4) but did not differ significantly from any other group. Controlling for numerous demographic, socioeconomic, health care, diabetes, and cardiovascular health variables, the magnitude of ethnic differences was attenuated, but persisted. Education regarding modifiable risk factors must be delivered in a timely fashion so that lifestyle modification can be implemented and evaluated before pharmacotherapy is deemed necessary. African Americans and Latinos with diabetes are in the greatest need of education regarding CHD risk.

A Risk-Scoring System for Predicting Methicillin Resistance in Community-Onset Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia in Korea.

PubMed

Suh, Hyeon Jeong; Park, Wan Beom; Jung, Sook-In; Song, Kyoung-Ho; Kwak, Yee Gyung; Kim, Kye-Hyung; Hwang, Jeong-Hwan; Yun, Na Ra; Jang, Hee-Chang; Kim, Young Keun; Kim, Nak-Hyun; Park, Kyung-Hwa; Kang, Seung Ji; Lee, Shinwon; Kim, Eu Suk; Kim, Hong Bin

2018-06-01

We aimed to develop a simple scoring system to predict risk for methicillin resistance in community-onset Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (CO-SAB) by identifying the clinical and epidemiological risk factors for community-onset methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). We retrospectively analyzed data from three multicenter cohort studies in Korea in which patient information was prospectively collected and risk factors for methicillin resistance in CO-SAB were identified. We then developed and validated a risk-scoring system. To analyze the 1,802 cases of CO-SAB, we included the four most powerful predictors of methicillin resistance that we identified in the scoring system: underlying hematologic disease (-1 point), endovascular infection as the primary site of infection (-1 point), history of hospitalization or surgery in ≤1 year (+0.5 points), and previous isolation of MRSA in ≤6 months (+1.5 points). With this scoring system, cases were classified into low (less than -0.5), intermediate (-0.5-1.5), and high (≥1.5) risk groups. The proportions of MRSA cases in each group were 24.7% (22/89), 39.0% (607/1,557), and 78.8% (123/156), respectively, and 16.7% (1/6), 33.8% (112/331), and 76.9% (10/13) in a validation set. This risk-scoring system for methicillin resistance in CO-SAB may help physicians select appropriate empirical antibiotics more quickly.

Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Escott-Price, Valentina; Sims, Rebecca; Bannister, Christian; Harold, Denise; Vronskaya, Maria; Majounie, Elisa; Badarinarayan, Nandini; Morgan, Kevin; Passmore, Peter; Holmes, Clive; Powell, John; Brayne, Carol; Gill, Michael; Mead, Simon; Goate, Alison; Cruchaga, Carlos; Lambert, Jean-Charles; van Duijn, Cornelia; Maier, Wolfgang; Ramirez, Alfredo; Holmans, Peter; Jones, Lesley; Hardy, John; Seshadri, Sudha; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Amouyel, Philippe; Williams, Julie

2015-12-01

The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer's disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer's disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer's disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer's disease (P = 4.9 × 10(-26)). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10(-19)). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77-80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer's disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer's disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For

Stratifying the risks of oral anticoagulation in patients with liver disease.

PubMed

Efird, Lydia M; Mishkin, Daniel S; Berlowitz, Dan R; Ash, Arlene S; Hylek, Elaine M; Ozonoff, Al; Reisman, Joel I; Zhao, Shibei; Jasuja, Guneet K; Rose, Adam J

2014-05-01

Chronic liver disease presents a relative contraindication to warfarin therapy, but some patients with liver disease nevertheless require long-term anticoagulation. The goal is to identify which patients with liver disease might safely receive warfarin. Among 102 134 patients who received warfarin from the Veterans Affairs from 2007 to 2008, International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision codes identified 1763 patients with chronic liver disease. Specific diagnoses and laboratory values (albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine, and cholesterol) were examined to identify risk of adverse outcomes, while controlling for available bleeding risk factors. Outcomes included percent time in therapeutic range, a measure of anticoagulation control, and major hemorrhagic events, by International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision codes. Patients with liver disease had lower mean time in therapeutic range (53.5%) when compared with patients without (61.7%; P<0.001) and more hemorrhages (hazard ratio, 2.02; P<0.001). Among patients with liver disease, serum albumin and creatinine levels were the strongest predictors of both outcomes. We created a 4-point score system: patients received 1 point each for albumin (2.5-3.49 g/dL) or creatinine (1.01-1.99 mg/dL), and 2 points each for albumin (<2.5 g/dL) or creatinine (≥2 mg/dL). This score predicted both anticoagulation control and hemorrhage. When compared with patients without liver disease, those with a score of zero had modestly lower time in therapeutic range (56.7%) and no increase in hemorrhages (hazard ratio, 1.16; P=0.59), whereas those with the worst score (4) had poor control (29.4%) and high hazard of hemorrhage (hazard ratio, 8.53; P<0.001). Patients with liver disease receiving warfarin have poorer anticoagulation control and more hemorrhages. A simple 4-point scoring system using albumin and creatinine identifies those at risk for poor outcomes. © 2014 American

Value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score and Fabry-specific score for predicting new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA in Fabry disease patients without atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Hu, Kai; Schmidt, Marie; Müntze, Jonas; Maniuc, Octavian; Gensler, Daniel; Oder, Daniel; Salinger, Tim; Weidemann, Frank; Ertl, Georg; Frantz, Stefan; Wanner, Christoph; Nordbeck, Peter

2018-05-24

To evaluate potential risk factors for stroke or transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and to test the feasibility and efficacy of a Fabry-specific stroke risk score in Fabry disease (FD) patients without atrial fibrillation (AF). FD patients often experience cerebrovascular events (stroke/TIA) at young age. 159 genetically confirmed FD patients without AF (aged 40 ± 14 years, 42.1% male) were included, and risk factors for stroke/TIA events were determined. All patients were followed up over a median period of 60 (quartiles 35-90) months. The pre-defined primary outcomes included new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA and all-cause death. Prior stroke/TIA (HR 19.97, P < .001), angiokeratoma (HR 4.06, P = .010), elevated creatinine (HR 3.74, P = .011), significant left ventricular hypertrophy (HR 4.07, P = .017), and reduced global systolic strain (GLS, HR 5.19, P = .002) remained as independent risk predictors of new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA in FD patients without AF. A Fabry-specific score was established based on above defined risk factors, proving somehow superior to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in predicting new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA in this cohort (AUC 0.87 vs. 0.75, P = .199). Prior stroke/TIA, angiokeratoma, renal dysfunction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and global systolic dysfunction are independent risk factors for new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA in FD patients without AF. It is feasible to predict new or recurrent cerebral events with the Fabry-specific score based on the above defined risk factors. Future studies are warranted to test if FD patients with high risk for new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA, as defined by the Fabry-specific score (≥ 2 points), might benefit from antithrombotic therapy. Clinical trial registration HEAL-FABRY (evaluation of HEArt invoLvement in patients with FABRY disease, NCT03362164).

Prevalence and risk factors for depression and anxiety in Chinese patients with Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Cui, Shi-Shuang; Du, Juan-Juan; Fu, Rao; Lin, Yi-Qi; Huang, Pei; He, Ya-Chao; Gao, Chao; Wang, Hua-Long; Chen, Sheng-Di

2017-11-22

Anxiety and depression are common in Parkinson disease and both are important determinants of quality of life in patients. Several risk factors are identified but few research have investigated general and Parkinson's disease (PD)-specific factors comprehensively. The aim of this work was to explore PD-specific and -non-specific risk factors for PD with depression or anxiety. A cross-sectional survey was performed in 403 patients with PD. Multivariate logistic analysis was used to investigate the prevalence and risk factors for the depression and anxiety in PD. The data of patients included demographic information, medicine history, disease duration, age at onset (AAO), family history, anti-parkinsonism drug, modified Hoehn and Yahr staging (H-Y) stage, scales of motor and non-motor symptoms and substantia nigra (SN) echogenic areas. 403 PD patients were recruited in the study. Depression and anxiety were present in 11.17% and 25.81% respectively. Marital status, tumor, higher Movement Disorder Society-sponsored revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) II score, dyskinesia, higher Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HARS) score and lower the Parkinson's disease sleep scale (PDSS) score were associated with depression in PD. female gender, higher rapid eye movement behavior disorder Questionnaire-Hong Kong (RBD-HK) score, higher Hamilton Deprssion Rating Scale (HAMD) score, higher the scale for outcomes in PD for autonomic symptoms (SCOPA-AUT)score and larger SN echogenic areas were associated with anxiety. Neither depression nor anxiety was related to any anti-parkinsonism drugs. The prevalence of depression and anxiety in the current PD patients was 11.17% and 25.81% respectively. Disease of tumor, currently having no partner, severer motor function, dyskinesia, poorer sleep quality and anxiety were risk factors for PD with depression. Female, depression, rapid eye movement behavior disorder (RBD), autonomic dysfunction and larger SN area

Longtime napping is associated with cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng

2016-09-01

Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend <0.05). The prevalence of high risk of CHD increased with daytime napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.

Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

PubMed

Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age <70) used for comparison. The outcome of interest in this study was in-hospital mortality. The entire cohort and subsets of patients were analyzed. The calibration and discrimination in total and in subsets were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow and the C statistics respectively. Institutional overall mortality was 2.52%. The expected mortality rates of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

Oral Hygiene and Cardiometabolic Disease Risk in the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin

PubMed Central

VanWormer, Jeffrey J.; Acharya, Amit; Greenlee, Robert T.; Nieto, F. Javier

2012-01-01

Objectives Poor oral health is an increasingly recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D), but little is known about the association between toothbrushing or flossing and cardiometabolic disease risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the degree to which an oral hygiene index was associated with CVD and T2D risk scores among disease-free adults in the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin. Methods All variables were measured in 2008–2010 in this cross-sectional design. Based on toothbrushing and flossing frequency, and oral hygiene index (poor, fair, good, excellent) was created as the primary predictor variable. The outcomes, CVD and T2D risk score, were based on previous estimates from large cohort studies. There were 712 and 296 individuals with complete data available for linear regression analyses in the CVD and T2D samples, respectively. Results After covariate adjustment, the final model indicated that participants in the excellent (β±SE=−0.019±0.008, p=0.020) oral hygiene category had a significantly lower CVD risk score as compared to participants in the poor oral hygiene category. Sensitivity analyses indicated that both toothbrushing and flossing were independently associated with CVD risk score, and various modifiable risk factors. Oral hygiene was not significantly associated with T2D risk score. Conclusions Regular toothbrushing and flossing are associated with a more favorable CVD risk profile, but more experimental research is needed in this area to precisely determine the effects of various oral self-care maintenance behaviors on the control of individual cardiometabolic risk factors. These findings may inform future joint medical-dental initiatives designed to close gaps in the primary prevention of oral and systemic diseases. PMID:23106415

The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert

2016-01-01

Objectives Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for “optimizing” care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3–5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

PubMed

Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

PubMed

Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

2014-01-01

Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

Cardiovascular disease risk and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease among patients with low health literacy.

PubMed

van Schaik, T M; Jørstad, H T; Twickler, T B; Peters, R J G; Tijssen, J P G; Essink-Bot, M L; Fransen, M P

2017-07-01

To explore the association between health literacy and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to assess the differential effects by health literacy level of a nurse-coordinated secondary prevention program (NCPP) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Data were collected in two medical centres participating in the RESPONSE trial (Randomised Evaluation of Secondary Prevention by Outpatient Nurse SpEcialists). CVD risk profiles were assessed at baseline and 12-month follow-up using the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). Health literacy was assessed by the short Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM-D) and the Newest Vital Sign (NVS-D); self-reported health literacy was evaluated by the Set of Brief Screening Questions (SBSQ-D). Among 201 CAD patients, 18% exhibited reading difficulties, 52% had difficulty understanding and applying written information, and 5% scored low on self-reported health literacy. Patients with low NVS-D scores had a higher CVD risk [mean SCORE 5.2 (SD 4.8) versus 3.3 (SD 4.1), p < 0.01]. Nurse-coordinated care seemed to reduce CVD risk irrespective of health literacy levels without significant differences. Inadequate health literacy is prevalent in CAD patients in the Netherlands, and is associated with less favourable CVD risk profiles. Where many other forms of CVD prevention fail, nurse-coordinated care seems to be effective among patients with inadequate health literacy.

Lifestyle Cardiovascular Risk Score, Genetic Risk Score, and Myocardial Infarction in Hispanic/Latino Adults Living in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Baylin, Ana; Campos, Hannia; Qi, Lu; Mattei, Josiemer

2016-12-20

A lifestyle cardiovascular risk score (LCRS) and a genetic risk score (GRS) have been independently associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in Hispanics/Latinos. Interaction or joint association between these scores has not been examined. Thus, our aim was to assess interactive and joint associations between LCRS and GRS, and each individual lifestyle risk factor, on likelihood of MI. Data included 1534 Costa Rican adults with nonfatal acute MI and 1534 matched controls. The LCRS used estimated coefficients as weights for each factor: unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, smoking, elevated waist:hip ratio, low/high alcohol intake, low socioeconomic status. The GRS included 14 MI-associated risk alleles. Conditional logistic regressions were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios. The odds ratios for MI were 2.72 (2.33, 3.17) per LCRS unit and 1.13 (95% CI 1.06, 1.21) per GRS unit. A significant joint association for highest GRS tertile and highest LCRS tertile and odds of MI was detected (odds ratio=5.43 [3.71, 7.94]; P<1.00×10 -7 ), compared to both lowest tertiles. The odds ratios were 1.74 (1.22, 2.49) under optimal lifestyle and unfavorable genetic profile, and 5.02 (3.46, 7.29) under unhealthy lifestyle but advantageous genetic profile. Significant joint associations were observed for the highest GRS tertile and the highest of each lifestyle component risk category. The interaction term was nonsignificant (P=0.33). Lifestyle risk factors and genetics are jointly associated with higher odds of MI among Hispanics/Latinos. Individual and combined lifestyle risk factors showed stronger associations. Efforts to improve lifestyle behaviors could help prevent MI regardless of genetic susceptibility. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Clinical severity score system in dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease.

PubMed

López-Alvarez, J; Elliott, J; Pfeiffer, D; Chang, Y-M; Mattin, M; Moonarmart, W; Hezzell, M J; Boswood, A

2015-01-01

Several risk factors already have been determined for dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). Risk factors often have been considered in isolation and have not always taken into account additional information provided by the history and physical examination (PE). Data obtained from history and PE of dogs with DMVD provide prognostic information and can be used for risk stratification. Client-owned dogs (n = 244) with DMVD recruited from first opinion practice. Prospective longitudinal follow-up of dogs with DMVD. History and PE data were obtained at 6-month intervals and analyzed with time-dependent Cox models to derive relative risk of cardiac death. Independent hazard ratios were used to derive a clinical severity score (CSS), the prognostic value of which was evaluated by analyzing the median survival times for different risk groups and ROC analysis. Analysis of the progression of CSS over time also was undertaken. History of cough, exercise intolerance, decreased appetite, breathlessness (difficulty breathing) and syncope with PE findings of heart murmur intensity louder than III/VI and absence of respiratory sinus arrhythmia were independently associated with outcome and allowed development of the CSS. Clinical severity score distinguished groups of dogs with significantly different outcomes. Routinely obtained clinical findings allow risk stratification of dogs with DMVD. Results of ancillary diagnostic tests may be complementary to history and PE findings and always should be interpreted in conjunction with these findings. Copyright © 2015 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A

2013-07-01

We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

A long-term quality-of-care score for predicting the occurrence of macrovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Li, Pi-I; Wang, Jian-Nan; Guo, How-Ran

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to develop a long-term quality-of-care score to predict the occurrence of macrovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, on the basis of the hypothesis that good quality of care can reduce the risk of macrovascular complications. Using Taiwan's Longitudinal Cohort of Diabetes Patients Database and the medical records in a medical center, we identified the incident patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes during 1999-2003 and followed them until 2011. A summary score (from 0 to 8) was calculated according to process indicators (frequencies of HbA1 c and lipid profile testing and urine, foot and retinal examinations), intermediate outcome indicators (low-density lipoprotein, blood pressure and HbA1 c ), and the co-morbidity of hypertension. We used Cox regression models to evaluate the association between the score and the incidence of macrovascular complications. Of the 4275 patients enrolled, 1928 developed macrovascular complication events after a mean follow-up period of 8.2 years. Compared to the risk of developing a macrovascular disease event in patients with scores ≤1, the risk was 64% lower in those with quality-of-care scores ≥5 (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.36; 95% confidence interval: 0.28-0.45). Good quality of care can reduce the risk of macrovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes. The score developed in this study had a significant association with the risk of macrovascular complications and thus can be applied to guiding the care for these patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of self-perceived cardiovascular disease risk among smokers with Framingham and PROCAM scores: a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Desgraz, Benoît; Collet, Tinh-Hai; Rodondi, Nicolas; Cornuz, Jacques; Clair, Carole

2017-01-06

Previous studies suggest that smokers have a misperception of their 10-year cardiovascular risk. We aimed to compare 10-year cardiovascular risk self-perception and calculated risk among smokers willing to quit and assess the determinants of a possible misperception. Cross-sectional secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of smoking cessation. 514 participants, mean age 51.1 years, 46% women, 98% Caucasian. Eligible participants were regular smokers, aged between 40 and 70 years, with a consumption of at least 10 cigarettes per day for at least a year. None of them had experienced cardiovascular disease before. Exclusion criteria comprised a history of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, carotid atherosclerosis or cardiac arrhythmia. Participants with renal or liver failure, psychiatric disorders, substance and alcohol abuse and with smoking cessation therapies were excluded. Participants were asked to estimate their 10-year cardiovascular risk using a 3-item scale corresponding to high-risk, moderate-risk and low-risk categories. We compared their risk perception with Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular Munster Study (PROCAM) scores. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models to determine characteristics of participants who underestimate their risk versus those who correctly estimate or overestimate it. Between 38% and 42% of smokers correctly perceived their 10-year cardiovascular risk, and 39-50% overestimated their 10-year cardiovascular risk while 12-19% underestimated it compared with their calculated 10-year cardiovascular risk depending on the score used. Underestimation of 10-year cardiovascular risk was associated with male gender (OR 8.16; CI 3.83 to 17.36), older age (OR 1.06; CI 1.02 to 1.09), and the presence of hyperlipidaemia (OR 2.71; CI 1.47 to 5.01) and diabetes mellitus (OR 13.93; CI 3.83 to 50.66). Among smokers, misperception

Value of adding the renal pathological score to the kidney failure risk equation in advanced diabetic nephropathy.

PubMed

Yamanouchi, Masayuki; Hoshino, Junichi; Ubara, Yoshifumi; Takaichi, Kenmei; Kinowaki, Keiichi; Fujii, Takeshi; Ohashi, Kenichi; Mise, Koki; Toyama, Tadashi; Hara, Akinori; Kitagawa, Kiyoki; Shimizu, Miho; Furuichi, Kengo; Wada, Takashi

2018-01-01

There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD. We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD): the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters) and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification)). They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR) of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90) and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83). Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%). We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score were

Risk factors for Apgar score using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Doaa; Frize, Monique; Walker, Robin C

2006-01-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been used in identifying the risk factors for many medical outcomes. In this paper, the risk factors for low Apgar score are introduced. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that the ANNs are used for Apgar score prediction. The medical domain of interest used is the perinatal database provided by the Perinatal Partnership Program of Eastern and Southeastern Ontario (PPPESO). The ability of the feed forward back propagation ANNs to generate strong predictive model with the most influential variables is tested. Finally, minimal sets of variables (risk factors) that are important in predicting Apgar score outcome without degrading the ANN performance are identified.

Same score, different message: perceptions of offender risk depend on Static-99R risk communication format.

PubMed

Varela, Jorge G; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Cuervo, Veronica A; Murrie, Daniel C; Clark, John W

2014-10-01

The popular Static-99R allows evaluators to convey results in terms of risk category (e.g., low, moderate, high), relative risk (compared with other sexual offenders), or normative sample recidivism rate formats (e.g., 30% reoffended in 5 years). But we do not know whether judges and jurors draw similar conclusions about the same Static-99R score when findings are communicated using different formats. Community members reporting for jury duty (N = 211) read a tutorial on the Static-99R and a description of a sexual offender and his crimes. We varied his Static-99R score (1 or 6) and risk communication format (categorical, relative risk, or recidivism rate). Participants rated the high-scoring offender as higher risk than the low-scoring offender in the categorical communication condition, but not in the relative risk or recidivism rate conditions. Moreover, risk ratings of the high-scoring offender were notably higher in the categorical communication condition than the relative risk and recidivism rate conditions. Participants who read about a low Static-99R score tended to report that Static-99R results were unimportant and difficult to understand, especially when risk was communicated using categorical or relative risk formats. Overall, results suggest that laypersons are more receptive to risk results indicating high risk than low risk and more receptive to risk communication messages that provide an interpretative label (e.g., high risk) than those that provide statistical results. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2016-01-01

Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

Utility of genetic and non-genetic risk factors in predicting coronary heart disease in Singaporean Chinese.

PubMed

Chang, Xuling; Salim, Agus; Dorajoo, Rajkumar; Han, Yi; Khor, Chiea-Chuen; van Dam, Rob M; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay; Liu, Jianjun; Goh, Daniel Yt; Wang, Xu; Teo, Yik-Ying; Friedlander, Yechiel; Heng, Chew-Kiat

2017-01-01

Background Although numerous phenotype based equations for predicting risk of 'hard' coronary heart disease are available, data on the utility of genetic information for such risk prediction is lacking in Chinese populations. Design Case-control study nested within the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Methods A total of 1306 subjects comprising 836 men (267 incident cases and 569 controls) and 470 women (128 incident cases and 342 controls) were included. A Genetic Risk Score comprising 156 single nucleotide polymorphisms that have been robustly associated with coronary heart disease or its risk factors ( p < 5 × 10 -8 ) in at least two independent cohorts of genome-wide association studies was built. For each gender, three base models were used: recalibrated Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) Model (M 1 ); ATP III model fitted using Singapore Chinese Health Study data (M 2 ) and M 3 : M 2 + C-reactive protein + creatinine. Results The Genetic Risk Score was significantly associated with incident 'hard' coronary heart disease ( p for men: 1.70 × 10 -10 -1.73 × 10 -9 ; p for women: 0.001). The inclusion of the Genetic Risk Score in the prediction models improved discrimination in both genders (c-statistics: 0.706-0.722 vs. 0.663-0.695 from base models for men; 0.788-0.790 vs. 0.765-0.773 for women). In addition, the inclusion of the Genetic Risk Score also improved risk classification with a net gain of cases being reclassified to higher risk categories (men: 12.4%-16.5%; women: 10.2% (M 3 )), while not significantly reducing the classification accuracy in controls. Conclusions The Genetic Risk Score is an independent predictor for incident 'hard' coronary heart disease in our ethnic Chinese population. Inclusion of genetic factors into coronary heart disease prediction models could significantly improve risk prediction performance.

Are Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Guidelines for Preexposure Prophylaxis Specific Enough? Formulation of a Personalized HIV Risk Score for Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiation.

PubMed

Beymer, Matthew R; Weiss, Robert E; Sugar, Catherine A; Bourque, Linda B; Gee, Gilbert C; Morisky, Donald E; Shu, Suzanne B; Javanbakht, Marjan; Bolan, Robert K

2017-01-01

Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has emerged as a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention tool for populations at highest risk for HIV infection. Current US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines for identifying PrEP candidates may not be specific enough to identify gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) at the highest risk for HIV infection. We created an HIV risk score for HIV-negative MSM based on Syndemics Theory to develop a more targeted criterion for assessing PrEP candidacy. Behavioral risk assessment and HIV testing data were analyzed for HIV-negative MSM attending the Los Angeles LGBT Center between January 2009 and June 2014 (n = 9481). Syndemics Theory informed the selection of variables for a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Estimated coefficients were summed to create an HIV risk score, and model fit was compared between our model and CDC guidelines using the Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion. Approximately 51% of MSM were above a cutpoint that we chose as an illustrative risk score to qualify for PrEP, identifying 75% of all seroconverting MSM. Our model demonstrated a better overall fit when compared with the CDC guidelines (Akaike Information Criterion Difference = 68) in addition to identifying a greater proportion of HIV infections. Current CDC PrEP guidelines should be expanded to incorporate substance use, partner-level, and other Syndemic variables that have been shown to contribute to HIV acquisition. Deployment of such personalized algorithms may better hone PrEP criteria and allow providers and their patients to make a more informed decision prior to PrEP use.

Outcome of metronidazole therapy for Clostridium difficile disease and correlation with a scoring system.

PubMed

Belmares, Jaime; Gerding, Dale N; Parada, Jorge P; Miskevics, Scott; Weaver, Frances; Johnson, Stuart

2007-12-01

To determine the response rate of Clostridium difficile disease (CDD) to treatment with metronidazole and assess a scoring system to predict response to treatment with metronidazole when applied at the time of CDD diagnosis. Retrospective review of patients with CDD who received primary treatment with metronidazole. We defined success as diarrhea resolution within 6 days of therapy. A CDD score was defined prospectively using variables suggested to correlate with disease severity. Among 102 evaluable patients, 72 had a successful response (70.6%). Twenty-one of the remaining 30 patients eventually responded to metronidazole, but required longer treatment, leaving 9 'true failures'. The mean CDD score was higher among true failures (2.89+/-1.4) than among all metronidazole responders (0.77+/-1.0) (p<.0001). The score was greater than 2 in 67% of true failures and 2 or less in 94% of metronidazole responders. Leukocytosis and abnormal CT scan findings were individual factors associated with a higher risk of metronidazole failure. Only 71% of CDD patients responded to metronidazole within 6 days, but the overall response rate was 91%. A CDD score greater than 2 was associated with metronidazole failure in 6 of 9 true failures. The CDD score will require prospective validation.

Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

2014-04-01

Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

[Assessment of cardiovascular risk in population groups. Comparison of Score system and Framingham in hypertensive patients].

PubMed

Cosín Aguilar, J; Hernándiz Martínez, A; Rodríguez Padial, L; Zamorano Gómez, J L; Arístegui Urrestarazu, R; Armada Peláez, B; Aguilar Llopis, A; Masramon Morell, X

2006-04-01

Calculation of cardiovascular risk in populations allows for developing and assessing of intervention programs and adapting health resources. While the Framingham System has been used in the past, a group of European researchers have proposed a different method called the Score project. The purpose of this paper is to compare the value of both methods for assessing cardiovascular risk. In 6,775 evaluable hypertensive patients distributed over the 17 Spanish autonomous communities (ACs), the 10-year risk of experiencing a coronary event (CR) was calculated using the Framingham equation, while risk of coronary death (RCD) and vascular death (RVD) was calculated using the Score project system, both at baseline and after one year of blood pressure control with amlodipine at the required dose. A comparison was made of the capacity to detect risk differences by both methods between populations with known different risks, and in the same population as a result of blood pressure control. Both the Score and the Framingham systems detected the significant decrease in both CR and RCD or RVD at one year of application of the CORONARIA study protocol. Risk decrease measured by any of the two methods was significant (p < 0.05) overall, by genders, and by ACs. However, the Score System, unlike the Framingham system, could not detect the reported differences in the mortality risk for coronary and vascular disease between the ACs of the North and the South-East parts of Spain.

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System.

PubMed

Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio

2017-01-01

To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure ( P <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship ( P >0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant ( P <0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

PubMed Central

Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D.; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio

2017-01-01

AIM To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship (P>0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y. PMID:28393027

Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer’s disease

PubMed Central

Sims, Rebecca; Bannister, Christian; Harold, Denise; Vronskaya, Maria; Majounie, Elisa; Badarinarayan, Nandini; Morgan, Kevin; Passmore, Peter; Holmes, Clive; Powell, John; Brayne, Carol; Gill, Michael; Mead, Simon; Goate, Alison; Cruchaga, Carlos; Lambert, Jean-Charles; van Duijn, Cornelia; Maier, Wolfgang; Ramirez, Alfredo; Holmans, Peter; Jones, Lesley; Hardy, John; Seshadri, Sudha; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Amouyel, Philippe

2015-01-01

The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer’s disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer’s disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer’s disease (P = 4.9 × 10−26). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10−19). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77–80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer’s disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer’s disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes. PMID:26490334

Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

PubMed Central

Hussain, S. Monira; Oldenburg, Brian; Zoungas, Sophia; Tonkin, Andrew M.

2013-01-01

Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk. PMID:24163770

Restaurant Inspection Scores and Foodborne Disease

PubMed Central

Pavlin, Boris I.; LaFleur, Bonnie J.; Ingram, L. Amanda; Schaffner, William

2004-01-01

Restaurants in the United States are regularly inspected by health departments, but few data exist regarding the effect of restaurant inspections on food safety. We examined statewide inspection records from January 1993 through April 2000. Data were available from 167,574 restaurant inspections. From 1993 to 2000, mean scores rose steadily from 80.2 to 83.8. Mean inspection scores of individual inspectors were 69–92. None of the 12 most commonly cited violations were critical food safety hazards. Establishments scoring <60 had a mean improvement of 16 points on subsequent inspections. Mean scores of restaurants experiencing foodborne disease outbreaks did not differ from restaurants with no reported outbreaks. A variety of factors influence the uniformity of restaurant inspections. The restaurant inspection system should be examined to identify ways to ensure food safety. PMID:15200861

Score tests for independence in semiparametric competing risks models.

PubMed

Saïd, Mériem; Ghazzali, Nadia; Rivest, Louis-Paul

2009-12-01

A popular model for competing risks postulates the existence of a latent unobserved failure time for each risk. Assuming that these underlying failure times are independent is attractive since it allows standard statistical tools for right-censored lifetime data to be used in the analysis. This paper proposes simple independence score tests for the validity of this assumption when the individual risks are modeled using semiparametric proportional hazards regressions. It assumes that covariates are available, making the model identifiable. The score tests are derived for alternatives that specify that copulas are responsible for a possible dependency between the competing risks. The test statistics are constructed by adding to the partial likelihoods for the individual risks an explanatory variable for the dependency between the risks. A variance estimator is derived by writing the score function and the Fisher information matrix for the marginal models as stochastic integrals. Pitman efficiencies are used to compare test statistics. A simulation study and a numerical example illustrate the methodology proposed in this paper.

The joint associations of occupational, commuting, and leisure-time physical activity, and the Framingham risk score on the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Hu, Gang; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Borodulin, Katja; Jousilahti, Pekka

2007-02-01

To determine joint associations of different kinds of physical activity and the Framingham risk score (FRS) with the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events. Study cohorts included 41 053 Finnish participants aged 25-64 years without history of CHD and stroke. The multivariable-adjusted 10-year hazard ratios (HRs) of coronary events associated with low, moderate, and high occupational physical activity were 1.00, 0.66, and 0.74 (Ptrend<0.001) for men, and 1.00, 0.53, and 0.58 (Ptrend<0.001) for women, respectively. The multivariable-adjusted 10-year HRs of coronary events associated with low, moderate, and high leisure-time physical activity were 1.00, 0.97, and 0.66 (Ptrend=0.002) for men, and 1.00, 0.74, and 0.54 (Ptrend=0.003) for women, respectively. Active commuting had a significant inverse association with 10-year risk of coronary events in women only. The FRS predicted 10-year risk of coronary events among both men and women. The protective effects of occupational, commuting, or leisure-time physical activity were consistent in subjects with a very low (<6%), low (6-9%), intermediate (10-19%), or high (>or=20%) risk of the FRS. Moderate or high levels of occupational or leisure-time physical activity among both men and women, and daily walking or cycling to and from work among women are associated with a reduced 10-year risk of CHD events. These favourable effects of physical activity on CHD risk are observed at all levels of CHD risk based on FRS assessment.

Association between selected dietary scores and the risk of urothelial cell carcinoma: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dugué, Pierre-Antoine; Hodge, Allison M; Brinkman, Maree T; Bassett, Julie K; Shivappa, Nitin; Hebert, James R; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Milne, Roger L; Giles, Graham G

2016-09-15

Studies investigating the association of food and nutrient consumption with the risk of urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) have produced mixed results. We used three common dietary scores, the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), the Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010) and the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) to assess the evidence of an association between diet and the risk of UCC. Over a median follow-up time of 21.3 years, 379 incident UCC cases were diagnosed. Dietary scores were calculated using data from a 121-item food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. We used Cox models to compute hazard ratios (HR) for the association between dietary scores (per one standard deviation) and UCC risk. In order to reflect overall adherence to a healthy diet, a metascore was constructed by summing the quintiles of each of the three scores. None of the dietary scores was associated with the risk of UCC overall. A healthier diet was found to be inversely associated with the risk of invasive (MDS: HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.74-1.00, metascore: HR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.71-0.98), but not superficial disease (heterogeneity between subtypes p = 0.04 and p = 0.03, respectively). Results were consistent but weaker for the DII and the AHEI-2010. We found some evidence of effect modification by smoking, in particular for the metascore (Current: HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.58-1.01, Former: HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.64-0.92, Never: HR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.81-1.26, p for heterogeneity = 0.05). A healthy diet may be protective against the risk of invasive, but not superficial, UCC. Promoting healthy dietary habits may help lower the risk of invasive UCC, especially for current and former smokers. © 2016 UICC.

A Comparison of the Updated Diamond-Forrester, CAD Consortium, and CONFIRM History-Based Risk Scores for Predicting Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With Stable Chest Pain: The SCOT-HEART Coronary CTA Cohort.

PubMed

Baskaran, Lohendran; Danad, Ibrahim; Gransar, Heidi; Ó Hartaigh, Bríain; Schulman-Marcus, Joshua; Lin, Fay Y; Peña, Jessica M; Hunter, Amanda; Newby, David E; Adamson, Philip D; Min, James K

2018-04-13

This study sought to compare the performance of history-based risk scores in predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) among patients with stable chest pain from the SCOT-HEART study. Risk scores for estimating pre-test probability of CAD are derived from referral-based populations with a high prevalence of disease. The generalizability of these scores to lower prevalence populations in the initial patient encounter for chest pain is uncertain. We compared 3 scores among patients with suspected CAD in the coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) randomized arm of the SCOT-HEART study for the outcome of obstructive CAD by coronary CTA: the updated Diamond-Forrester score (UDF), CAD Consortium clinical score (CAD2), and CONFIRM risk score (CRS). We tested calibration with goodness-of-fit, discrimination with area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), and reclassification with net reclassification improvement (NRI) to identify low-risk patients. In 1,738 patients (58 ± 10 years and 44.0% women), overall calibration was best for UDF, with underestimation by CRS and CAD2. Discrimination by AUC was highest for CAD2 at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77 to 0.81) than for UDF (0.77 [95% CI: 0.74 to 0.79]) or CRS (0.75 [95% CI: 0.73 to 0.77]) (p < 0.001 for both comparisons). Reclassification of low-risk patients at the 10% probability threshold was best for CAD2 (NRI 0.31, 95% CI: 0.27 to 0.35) followed by CRS (NRI 0.21, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.25) compared with UDF (p < 0.001 for all comparisons), with a consistent trend at the 15% threshold. In this multicenter clinic-based cohort of patients with suspected CAD and uniform CAD evaluation by coronary CTA, CAD2 provided the best discrimination and classification, despite overestimation of obstructive CAD as evaluated by coronary CTA. CRS exhibited intermediate performance followed by UDF for discrimination and reclassification. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

External validation of a prehospital risk score for critical illness.

PubMed

Kievlan, Daniel R; Martin-Gill, Christian; Kahn, Jeremy M; Callaway, Clifton W; Yealy, Donald M; Angus, Derek C; Seymour, Christopher W

2016-08-11

Identification of critically ill patients during prehospital care could facilitate early treatment and aid in the regionalization of critical care. Tools to consistently identify those in the field with or at higher risk of developing critical illness do not exist. We sought to validate a prehospital critical illness risk score that uses objective clinical variables in a contemporary cohort of geographically and temporally distinct prehospital encounters. We linked prehospital encounters at 21 emergency medical services (EMS) agencies to inpatient electronic health records at nine hospitals in southwestern Pennsylvania from 2010 to 2012. The primary outcome was critical illness during hospitalization, defined as an intensive care unit stay with delivery of organ support (mechanical ventilation or vasopressor use). We calculated the prehospital risk score using demographics and first vital signs from eligible EMS encounters, and we tested the association between score variables and critical illness using multivariable logistic regression. Discrimination was assessed using the AUROC curve, and calibration was determined by plotting observed versus expected events across score values. Operating characteristics were calculated at score thresholds. Among 42,550 nontrauma, non-cardiac arrest adult EMS patients, 1926 (4.5 %) developed critical illness during hospitalization. We observed moderate discrimination of the prehospital critical illness risk score (AUROC 0.73, 95 % CI 0.72-0.74) and adequate calibration based on observed versus expected plots. At a score threshold of 2, sensitivity was 0.63 (95 % CI 0.61-0.75), specificity was 0.73 (95 % CI 0.72-0.73), negative predictive value was 0.98 (95 % CI 0.98-0.98), and positive predictive value was 0.10 (95 % CI 0.09-0.10). The risk score performance was greater with alternative definitions of critical illness, including in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.77, 95 % CI 0.7 -0.78). In an external validation cohort, a

Predicting two-year mortality from discharge after acute coronary syndrome: An internationally-based risk score.

PubMed

Pocock, Stuart J; Huo, Yong; Van de Werf, Frans; Newsome, Simon; Chin, Chee Tang; Vega, Ana Maria; Medina, Jesús; Bueno, Héctor

2017-08-01

Long-term risk of post-discharge mortality associated with acute coronary syndrome remains a concern. The development of a model to reliably estimate two-year mortality risk from hospital discharge post-acute coronary syndrome will help guide treatment strategies. EPICOR (long-tErm follow uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients, NCT01171404) and EPICOR Asia (EPICOR Asia, NCT01361386) are prospective observational studies of 23,489 patients hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome event, who survived to discharge and were then followed up for two years. Patients were enrolled from 28 countries across Europe, Latin America and Asia. Risk scoring for two-year all-cause mortality risk was developed using identified predictive variables and forward stepwise Cox regression. Goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power was estimated. Within two years of discharge 5.5% of patients died. We identified 17 independent mortality predictors: age, low ejection fraction, no coronary revascularization/thrombolysis, elevated serum creatinine, poor EQ-5D score, low haemoglobin, previous cardiac or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, elevated blood glucose, on diuretics or an aldosterone inhibitor at discharge, male sex, low educational level, in-hospital cardiac complications, low body mass index, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction diagnosis, and Killip class. Geographic variation in mortality risk was seen following adjustment for other predictive variables. The developed risk-scoring system provided excellent discrimination ( c-statistic=0.80, 95% confidence interval=0.79-0.82) with a steep gradient in two-year mortality risk: >25% (top decile) vs. ~1% (bottom quintile). A simplified risk model with 11 predictors gave only slightly weaker discrimination ( c-statistic=0.79, 95% confidence interval =0.78-0.81). This risk score for two-year post-discharge mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients ( www.acsrisk.org ) can facilitate

Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome

PubMed Central

Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali

2017-01-01

Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

European Society of Cardiology-Recommended Coronary Artery Disease Consortium Pretest Probability Scores More Accurately Predict Obstructive Coronary Disease and Cardiovascular Events Than the Diamond and Forrester Score: The Partners Registry.

PubMed

Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer; Hulten, Edward; Polonsky, Tamar S; Hoffman, Udo; Nasir, Khurram; Abbara, Suhny; Di Carli, Marcelo; Blankstein, Ron

2016-07-19

The most appropriate score for evaluating the pretest probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) is unknown. We sought to compare the Diamond-Forrester (DF) score with the 2 CAD consortium scores recently recommended by the European Society of Cardiology. We included 2274 consecutive patients (age, 56±13 years; 57% male) without prior CAD referred for coronary computed tomographic angiography. Computed tomographic angiography findings were used to determine the presence or absence of obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis). We compared the DF score with the 2 CAD consortium scores with respect to their ability to predict obstructive CAD and the potential implications of these scores on the downstream use of testing for CAD, as recommended by current guidelines. The DF score did not satisfactorily fit the data and resulted in a significant overestimation of the prevalence of obstructive CAD (P<0.001); the CAD consortium basic score had no significant lack of fitness; and the CAD consortium clinical provided adequate goodness of fit (P=0.39). The DF score had a lower discrimination for obstructive CAD, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.713 versus 0.752 and 0.791 for the CAD consortium models (P<0.001 for both). Consequently, the use of the DF score was associated with fewer individuals being categorized as requiring no additional testing (8.3%) compared with the CAD consortium models (24.6% and 30.0%; P<0.001). The proportion of individuals with a high pretest probability was 18% with the DF and only 1.1% with the CAD consortium scores (P<0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Among contemporary patients referred for noninvasive testing, the DF risk score overestimates the risk of obstructive CAD. On the other hand, the CAD consortium scores offered improved goodness of fit and discrimination; thus, their use could decrease the need for noninvasive or invasive testing while increasing the yield of such tests. © 2016 American Heart

A risk score for identifying methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) represents an important pathogen in healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). The concept of HCAP, though, may not perform well as a screening test for MRSA and can lead to overuse of antibiotics. We developed a risk score to identify patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia unlikely to have MRSA. Methods We identified patients admitted with pneumonia (Apr 2005 – Mar 2009) at 62 hospitals in the US. We only included patients with lab evidence of bacterial infection (e.g., positive respiratory secretions, blood, or pleural cultures or urinary antigen testing). We determined variables independently associated with the presence of MRSA based on logistic regression (two-thirds of cohort) and developed a risk prediction model based on these factors. We validated the model in the remaining population. Results The cohort included 5975 patients and MRSA was identified in 14%. The final risk score consisted of eight variables and a potential total score of 10. Points were assigned as follows: two for recent hospitalization or ICU admission; one each for age < 30 or > 79 years, prior IV antibiotic exposure, dementia, cerebrovascular disease, female with diabetes, or recent exposure to a nursing home/long term acute care facility/skilled nursing facility. This study shows how the prevalence of MRSA rose with increasing score after stratifying the scores into Low (0 to 1 points), Medium (2 to 5 points) and High (6 or more points) risk. When the score was 0 or 1, the prevalence of MRSA was < 10% while the prevalence of MRSA climbed to > 30% when the score was 6 or greater. Conclusions MRSA represents a cause of pneumonia presenting to the hospital. This simple risk score identifies patients at low risk for MRSA and in whom anti-MRSA therapy might be withheld. PMID:23742753

Prevalence of atherogenic dyslipidemia in primary care patients at moderate-very high risk of cardiovascular disease. Cardiovascular risk perception.

PubMed

Plana, Nuria; Ibarretxe, Daiana; Cabré, Anna; Ruiz, Emilio; Masana, Lluis

2014-01-01

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We aim to determine atherogenic dyslipidemia prevalence in primary care patients at moderate-very high cardiovascular risk and its associated cardiovascular risk perception in Spain. This cross-sectional study included 1137 primary care patients. Patients had previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, SCORE risk ≥ 3, severe hypertension or dyslipidemia. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as low HDL-C (<40 mg/dL [males], <50 mg/dL [females]) and elevated triglycerides (≥ 150 mg/dL). A visual analog scale was used to define a perceived cardiovascular disease risk score. Mean age was 63.9 ± 9.7 years (64.6% males). The mean BMI was 29.1 ± 4.3 kg/m(2), and mean waist circumference 104.2 ± 12.7 cm (males), and 97.2 ± 14.0 cm (females). 29.4% were smokers, 76.4% had hypertension, 48.0% were diabetics, 24.7% had previous myocardial infarction, and 17.8% peripheral arterial disease. European guidelines classified 83.6% at very high cardiovascular risk. Recommended HDL-C levels were achieved by 50.1% of patients and 37.3% had triglycerides in the reference range. Target LDL-C was achieved by 8.8%. The overall atherogenic dyslipidemia prevalence was 27.1% (34.1% in diabetics). This prevalence in patients achieving target LDL-C was 21.4%. Cardiovascular risk perceived by patients was 4.3/10, while primary care physicians scored 5.7/10. When LDL-C levels are controlled, atherogenic dyslipidemia is more prevalent in those patients at highest cardiovascular risk and with diabetes. This highlights the importance of intervention strategies to prevent the residual vascular risk in this population. Both patients and physicians underestimated cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Advanced age, cardiovascular risk burden, and timed up and go test performance in Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L; Müller, Martijn L T M; Koeppe, Robert A; Studenski, Stephanie; Frey, Kirk A; Bohnen, Nicolaas I

2014-12-01

Cardiovascular comorbidities are a known risk factor for impaired mobility in elderly individuals. Motor impairments in Parkinson disease are conventionally ascribed to nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation although progressive gait and balance impairments become more common with aging and often show limited response to dopaminergic replacement therapies. We explored the association between elevated cardiovascular risk factors and performance on the Timed Up and Go test in cross-sectional of Parkinson disease subjects (n = 83). Cardiovascular risk factor status was estimated using the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease risk-scoring algorithm in order to dichotomize the cohort into those with and without elevated modifiable cardiovascular risk compared with normative scores for age and gender. All subjects underwent clinical and neuroimaging evaluations including a 3-m Timed Up and Go test, [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine positron emission tomography imaging to estimate nigrostriatal dopamine terminal loss, and an magnetic resonance imaging assessment of leukoaraiosis. A similar analysis was performed in 49 healthy controls. After adjusting for disease duration, leukoaraiosis, and nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation, Parkinson disease subjects with elevated Framingham risk scores (n = 61) displayed slower Timed Up and Go test performance (β = 1.86, t = 2.41, p = .018) compared with subjects with normal range Framingham risk scores (n = 22). When age ≥65 was added to the model in a post hoc analysis, the strength of effect seen with older age (β = 1.51, t = 2.44, p = .017) was similar to that of elevated Framingham risk scoring (β = 1.87, t = 2.51, p = .014). In a multivariable regression model studying the healthy control population, advanced age (t = 2.15, p = .037) was a significant predictor of Timed Up and Go speed though striatal [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine (t = -1.30, p = .19) and elevated Framingham risk scores (t = 1.32, p = .19) were not

The UK DCD Risk Score: A new proposal to define futility in donation-after-circulatory-death liver transplantation.

PubMed

Schlegel, Andrea; Kalisvaart, Marit; Scalera, Irene; Laing, Richard W; Mergental, Hynek; Mirza, Darius F; Perera, Thamara; Isaac, John; Dutkowski, Philipp; Muiesan, Paolo

2018-03-01

Primary non-function and ischaemic cholangiopathy are the most feared complications following donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to design a new score on risk assessment in liver-transplantation DCD based on donor-and-recipient parameters. Using the UK national DCD database, a risk analysis was performed in adult recipients of DCD liver grafts in the UK between 2000 and 2015 (n = 1,153). A new risk score was calculated (UK DCD Risk Score) on the basis of a regression analysis. This is validated using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (n = 1,617) and our own DCD liver-transplant database (n = 315). Finally, the new score was compared with two other available prediction systems: the DCD risk scores from the University of California, Los Angeles and King's College Hospital, London. The following seven strongest predictors of DCD graft survival were identified: functional donor warm ischaemia, cold ischaemia, recipient model for end-stage liver disease, recipient age, donor age, previous orthotopic liver transplantation, and donor body mass index. A combination of these risk factors (UK DCD risk model) stratified the best recipients in terms of graft survival in the entire UK DCD database, as well as in the United Network for Organ Sharing and in our own DCD population. Importantly, the UK DCD Risk Score significantly predicted graft loss caused by primary non-function or ischaemic cholangiopathy in the futile group (>10 score points). The new prediction model demonstrated a better C statistic of 0.79 compared to the two other available systems (0.71 and 0.64, respectively). The UK DCD Risk Score is a reliable tool to detect high-risk and futile combinations of donor-and-recipient factors in DCD liver transplantation. It is simple to use and offers a great potential for making better decisions on which DCD graft should be rejected or may benefit from functional assessment and further

Identifying Mendelian disease genes with the Variant Effect Scoring Tool

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Whole exome sequencing studies identify hundreds to thousands of rare protein coding variants of ambiguous significance for human health. Computational tools are needed to accelerate the identification of specific variants and genes that contribute to human disease. Results We have developed the Variant Effect Scoring Tool (VEST), a supervised machine learning-based classifier, to prioritize rare missense variants with likely involvement in human disease. The VEST classifier training set comprised ~ 45,000 disease mutations from the latest Human Gene Mutation Database release and another ~45,000 high frequency (allele frequency >1%) putatively neutral missense variants from the Exome Sequencing Project. VEST outperforms some of the most popular methods for prioritizing missense variants in carefully designed holdout benchmarking experiments (VEST ROC AUC = 0.91, PolyPhen2 ROC AUC = 0.86, SIFT4.0 ROC AUC = 0.84). VEST estimates variant score p-values against a null distribution of VEST scores for neutral variants not included in the VEST training set. These p-values can be aggregated at the gene level across multiple disease exomes to rank genes for probable disease involvement. We tested the ability of an aggregate VEST gene score to identify candidate Mendelian disease genes, based on whole-exome sequencing of a small number of disease cases. We used whole-exome data for two Mendelian disorders for which the causal gene is known. Considering only genes that contained variants in all cases, the VEST gene score ranked dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) number 2 of 2253 genes in four cases of Miller syndrome, and myosin-3 (MYH3) number 2 of 2313 genes in three cases of Freeman Sheldon syndrome. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the potential power gain of aggregating bioinformatics variant scores into gene-level scores and the general utility of bioinformatics in assisting the search for disease genes in large-scale exome sequencing studies. VEST is

Ten years cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham score and non HDL-cholesterol in blood donors.

PubMed

Graffigna, Mabel Nora; Berg, Gabriela; Migliano, Marta; Salgado, Pablo; Soutelo, Jimena; Musso, Carla

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently the primary cause of morbidity and mortality. (1) Assess the 10 years risk for CVD in Argentinean blood donors, according to Framingham score (updated by ATP III), (2) evaluate the prevalence of the MS, (3) evaluate non HDL-cholesterol level in this population as other risk for CVD. A prospective, epidemiological, transversal study was performed to evaluate 585 volunteer blood donors for two years. Non HDL-C was calculated as total cholesterol minus HDL-C and we evaluated the 10 years risk for CVD according to Framingham score (updated by ATP III). Metabolic syndrome prevalence was estimated according to ATP III and IDF criteria. Non HDL-C was (media±SD) 178.3±48.0 mg/dl in participants with MS and 143.7±39.3 mg/dl without MS (ATPIII) and 160.1±43.6 mg/dl in participants with MS and 139.8±43.1 mg/dl without MS (IDF). Participants with MS presented an OR of 3.1; IC 95% (2-5) of CVD according to de Framingham score. Individuals with MS and elevated non HDL-C are at a higher estimated risk for cardiovascular events in the next 10 years according to the Framingham risk score. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koontz, Bridget F., E-mail: bridget.koontz@duke.edu; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir

Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patientsmore » had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.« less

Impact of primary Gleason grade on risk stratification for Gleason score 7 prostate cancers.

PubMed

Koontz, Bridget F; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W Robert

2012-01-01

To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) assessment test scores corresponding to modified Medical Research Council grades among COPD patients.

PubMed

Lee, Chang-Hoon; Lee, Jinwoo; Park, Young Sik; Lee, Sang-Min; Yim, Jae-Joon; Kim, Young Whan; Han, Sung Koo; Yoo, Chul-Gyu

2015-09-01

In assigning patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) to subgroups according to the updated guidelines of the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease, discrepancies have been noted between the COPD assessment test (CAT) criteria and modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) criteria. We investigated the determinants of symptom and risk groups and sought to identify a better CAT criterion. This retrospective study included COPD patients seen between June 20, 2012, and December 5, 2012. The CAT score that can accurately predict an mMRC grade ≥ 2 versus < 2 was evaluated by comparing the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and by classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Among 428 COPD patients, the percentages of patients classified into subgroups A, B, C, and D were 24.5%, 47.2%, 4.2%, and 24.1% based on CAT criteria and 49.3%, 22.4%, 8.9%, and 19.4% based on mMRC criteria, respectively. More than 90% of the patients who met the mMRC criteria for the 'more symptoms group' also met the CAT criteria. AUROC and CART analyses suggested that a CAT score ≥ 15 predicted an mMRC grade ≥ 2 more accurately than the current CAT score criterion. During follow-up, patients with CAT scores of 10 to 14 did not have a different risk of exacerbation versus those with CAT scores < 10, but they did have a lower exacerbation risk compared to those with CAT scores of 15 to 19. A CAT score ≥ 15 is a better indicator for the 'more symptoms group' in the management of COPD patients.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

A Risk Score Model for Evaluation and Management of Patients with Thyroid Nodules.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongwen; Meng, Fanrong; Hong, Lianqing; Chu, Lanfang

2018-06-12

The study is aimed to establish a simplified and practical tool for analyzing thyroid nodules. A novel risk score model was designed, risk factors including patient history, patient characteristics, physical examination, symptoms of compression, thyroid function, ultrasonography (US) of thyroid and cervical lymph nodes were evaluated and classified into high risk factors, intermediate risk factors, and low risk factors. A total of 243 thyroid nodules in 162 patients were assessed with risk score system and Thyroid Imaging-Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS). The diagnostic performance of risk score system and TI-RADS was compared. The accuracy in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules was 89.3% for risk score system, 74.9% for TI-RADS respectively. The specificity, accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV) of risk score system were significantly higher than the TI-RADS system (χ 2 =26.287, 17.151, 11.983; p <0.05), statistically significant differences were not observed in the sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) between the risk score system and TI-RADS (χ 2 =1.276, 0.290; p>0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) for risk score diagnosis system was 0.963, standard error 0.014, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.934-0.991, the AUC for TI-RADS diagnosis system was 0.912 with standard error 0.021, 95% CI=0.871-0.953, the AUC for risk score system was significantly different from that of TI-RADS (Z=2.02; p <0.05). Risk score model is a reliable, simplified and cost-effective diagnostic tool used in diagnosis of thyroid cancer. The higher the score is, the higher the risk of malignancy will be. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Influence of bone mineral density measurement on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in postmenopausal Indian women.

PubMed

Daswani, Bhavna; Desai, Meena; Mitra, Sumegha; Gavali, Shubhangi; Patil, Anushree; Kukreja, Subhash; Khatkhatay, M Ikram

2016-03-01

Fracture risk assessment tool® calculations can be performed with or without addition of bone mineral density; however, the impact of this addition on fracture risk assessment tool® scores has not been studied in Indian women. Given the limited availability and high cost of bone mineral density testing in India, it is important to know the influence of bone mineral density on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. Therefore, our aim was to assess the contribution of bone mineral density in fracture risk assessment tool® outcome in Indian women. Apparently healthy postmenopausal Indian women (n = 506), aged 40-72 years, without clinical risk factors for bone disease, were retrospectively selected, and their fracture risk assessment tool® scores calculated with and without bone mineral density were compared. Based on WHO criteria, 30% women were osteoporotic, 42.9% were osteopenic and 27.1% had normal bone mineral density. Fracture risk assessment tool® scores for risk of both major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture significantly increased on including bone mineral density (P < 0.0001). When criteria of National Osteoporosis Foundation, US was applied number of participants eligible for medical therapy increased upon inclusion of bone mineral density, (for major osteoporotic fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 0 and with bone mineral density was 1, P > 0.05, whereas, for hip fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 2 and with bone mineral density was 17, P < 0.0001). Until the establishment of country-specific medication intervention thresholds, bone mineral density should be included while calculating fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. © The Author(s) 2016.

Polygenic risk score of sporadic late-onset Alzheimer's disease reveals a shared architecture with the familial and early-onset forms.

PubMed

Cruchaga, Carlos; Del-Aguila, Jorge L; Saef, Benjamin; Black, Kathleen; Fernandez, Maria Victoria; Budde, John; Ibanez, Laura; Deming, Yuetiva; Kapoor, Manav; Tosto, Giuseppe; Mayeux, Richard P; Holtzman, David M; Fagan, Anne M; Morris, John C; Bateman, Randall J; Goate, Alison M; Harari, Oscar

2018-02-01

To determine whether the extent of overlap of the genetic architecture among the sporadic late-onset Alzheimer's Disease (sLOAD), familial late-onset AD (fLOAD), sporadic early-onset AD (sEOAD), and autosomal dominant early-onset AD (eADAD). Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed using previously identified 21 genome-wide significant loci for LOAD risk. We found that there is an overlap in the genetic architecture among sEOAD, fLOAD, and sLOAD. The highest association of the PRS and risk (odds ratio [OR] = 2.27; P = 1.29 × 10 -7 ) was observed in sEOAD, followed by fLOAD (OR = 1.75; P = 1.12 × 10 -7 ) and sLOAD (OR = 1.40; P = 1.21 × 10 -3 ). The PRS was associated with cerebrospinal fluid ptau 181 -Aβ 42 on eADAD (P = 4.36 × 10 -2 ). Our analysis confirms that the genetic factors identified for LOAD modulate risk in sLOAD and fLOAD and also sEOAD cohorts. Specifically, our results suggest that the burden of these risk variants is associated with familial clustering and earlier onset of AD. Although these variants are not associated with risk in the eADAD, they may be modulating age at onset. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lung cancer in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Development and validation of the COPD Lung Cancer Screening Score.

PubMed

de-Torres, Juan P; Wilson, David O; Sanchez-Salcedo, Pablo; Weissfeld, Joel L; Berto, Juan; Campo, Arantzazu; Alcaide, Ana B; García-Granero, Marta; Celli, Bartolome R; Zulueta, Javier J

2015-02-01

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at high risk for lung cancer (LC) and represent a potential target to improve the diagnostic yield of screening programs. To develop a predictive score for LC risk for patients with COPD. The Pamplona International Early Lung Cancer Detection Program (P-IELCAP) and the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) databases were analyzed. Only patients with COPD on spirometry were included. By logistic regression we determined which factors were independently associated with LC in PLuSS and developed a COPD LC screening score (COPD-LUCSS) to be validated in P-IELCAP. By regression analysis, age greater than 60, body mass index less than 25 kg/m(2), pack-years history greater than 60, and emphysema presence were independently associated with LC diagnosis and integrated into the COPD-LUCSS, which ranges from 0 to 10 points. Two COPD-LUCSS risk categories were proposed: low risk (scores 0-6) and high risk (scores 7-10). In comparison with low-risk patients, in both cohorts LC risk increased 3.5-fold in the high-risk category. The COPD-LUCSS is a good predictor of LC risk in patients with COPD participating in LC screening programs. Validation in two different populations adds strength to the findings.

Predicting Early Death Among Elderly Dialysis Patients: Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Assist Shared Decision Making for Dialysis Initiation.

PubMed

Thamer, Mae; Kaufman, James S; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Qian; Cotter, Dennis J; Bang, Heejung

2015-12-01

A shared decision-making tool could help elderly patients with advanced chronic kidney disease decide about initiating dialysis therapy. Because mortality may be high in the first few months after initiating dialysis therapy, incorporating early mortality predictors in such a tool would be important for an informed decision. Our objective is to derive and validate a predictive risk score for early mortality after initiating dialysis therapy. Retrospective observational cohort, with development and validation cohorts. US Renal Data System and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for 69,441 (aged ≥67 years) patients with end-stage renal disease with a previous 2-year Medicare history who initiated dialysis therapy from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2010. Demographics, predialysis care, laboratory data, functional limitations, and medical history. All-cause mortality in the first 3 and 6 months. Predicted mortality by logistic regression. The simple risk score (total score, 0-9) included age (0-3 points), low albumin level, assistance with daily living, nursing home residence, cancer, heart failure, and hospitalization (1 point each), and showed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.69 in the validation sample. A comprehensive risk score with additional predictors was also developed (with AUROC=0.72, high concordance between predicted vs observed risk). Mortality probabilities were estimated from these models, with the median score of 3 indicating 12% risk in 3 months and 20% in 6 months, and the highest scores (≥8) indicating 39% risk in 3 months and 55% in 6 months. Patients who did not choose dialysis therapy and did not have a 2-year Medicare history were excluded. Routinely available information can be used by patients with chronic kidney disease, families, and their nephrologists to estimate the risk of early mortality after dialysis therapy initiation, which may facilitate informed decision making

Risk score for peri-interventional complications of carotid artery stenting.

PubMed

Hofmann, Robert; Niessner, Alexander; Kypta, Alexander; Steinwender, Clemens; Kammler, Jürgen; Kerschner, Klaus; Grund, Michael; Leisch, Franz; Huber, Kurt

2006-10-01

Routinely available independent risk factors for the peri-interventional outcome of patients undergoing elective carotid artery stenting (CAS) are lacking. The rationale of the study was to create a risk score identifying high-risk patients. We prospectively enrolled 606 consecutive patients assigned to CAS at a secondary care hospital. Various biochemical, clinical, and lesion-related risk factors were prospectively defined. The primary end point reflecting periprocedural complications encompassed minor and major stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality within 30 days. Three percent of patients (n=18) experienced a nonfatal minor (n=13) or major (n=5) stroke. 1.3% of patients (n=8) died from fatal stroke (n=4) or other causes (n=4). No myocardial infarction was observed within 30 days after stenting. Multivariable analysis revealed diabetes mellitus with inadequate glycemic control (HbA1c > 7%), age > or = 80 years, ulceration of the carotid artery stenosis, and a contralateral stenosis > or = 50% as independent risk factors. A risk score formed with these variables showed a superior predictive value (C-statistic = 0.73) compared with single risk factors. The presence of 2 or more of these risk factors identified patients with a risk of 11% for a periprocedural complication compared with 2% in patients with a score of 0 or 1. In patients undergoing elective CAS, a risk score based on routinely accessible variables was able to identify patients at high-risk for atherothrombotic events and all-cause death within 30 days after the intervention.

Stroke-Associated Pneumonia Risk Score: Validity in a French Stroke Unit.

PubMed

Cugy, Emmanuelle; Sibon, Igor

2017-01-01

Stroke-associated pneumonia is a leading cause of in-hospital death and post-stroke outcome. Screening patients at high risk is one of the main challenges in acute stroke units. Several screening tests have been developed, but their feasibility and validity still remain unclear. The aim of our study was to evaluate the validity of four risk scores (Pneumonia score, A2DS2, ISAN score, and AIS-APS) in a population of ischemic stroke patients admitted in a French stroke unit. Consecutive ischemic stroke patients admitted to a stroke unit were retrospectively analyzed. Data that allowed to retrospectively calculate the different pneumonia risk scores were recorded. Sensitivity and specificity of each score were assessed for in-hospital stroke-associated pneumonia and mortality. The qualitative and quantitative accuracy and utility of each diagnostic screening test were assessed by measuring the Youden Index and the Clinical Utility Index. Complete data were available for only 1960 patients. Pneumonia was observed in 8.6% of patients. Sensitivity and specificity were, respectively, .583 and .907 for Pneumonia score, .744 and .796 for A2DS2, and .696 and .812 for ISAN score. Data were insufficient to test AIS-APS. Stroke-associated pneumonia risk scores had an excellent negative Clinical Utility Index (.77-.87) to screen for in-hospital risk of pneumonia after acute ischemic stroke. All scores might be useful and applied to screen stroke-associated pneumonia in stroke patients treated in French comprehensive stroke units. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between liver fibrosis and coronary heart disease risk in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Dogan, Serkan; Celikbilek, Mehmet; Yilmaz, Yunus K; Sarikaya, Savas; Zararsiz, Gokmen; Serin, Halil I; Borekci, Elif; Akyol, Lütfi; Pirti, Ilyas; Davarci, Sena E

2015-03-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is being increasingly recognized as the most common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. It has been shown that NAFLD in adults is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Because of the limitations of liver biopsy, noninvasive scoring indexes such as the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) were developed. The Framingham risk score (FRS) provides an estimate of CHD risk. In our study we aimed to investigate whether the severity of liver fibrosis estimated with the NFS is associated with a higher risk of CHD among individuals with ultrasonography-diagnosed NAFLD. A total of 155 patients and controls (81 patients with NAFLD and 74 controls) with ages ranging from 18 to 70 years were enrolled in this cross-sectional prospective study. Demographic, anthropometric, clinical, and laboratory data were obtained from each individual. The NAFLD patients were divided into subgroups on the basis of the severity of fatty liver. The FRS and NFS were adopted to predict the risk of CHD and the severity of hepatic fibrosis. In our study, we found that the FRS was higher in NAFLD patients than in controls (P<0.05). According to the FRS category, NFSs were higher in the intermediate/high probability CHD risk group in NAFLD (P<0.05). In multiple models, only age, sex, cholesterol, and HDL were independently associated with intermediate/high CHD risk (P<0.05). We also found a positive correlation between the NFS and the FRS (r=0.373, P<0.001). The optimum NFS cutoff point for identifying intermediate/high CHD risk in NAFLD patients was -2.1284, with a sensitivity and specificity of 95.20 and 48.30%, respectively. The predictive performance of the NFS in the determination of intermediate/high CHD risk in NAFLD patients was found to be 72% based on the area under the curve value. The FRS is associated with the NFS in NAFLD. The assessment of liver fibrosis may be useful for the risk stratification of CHD in the absence of liver

A user-friendly risk-score for predicting in-hospital cardiac arrest among patients admitted with suspected non ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome - The SAFER-score.

PubMed

Faxén, Jonas; Hall, Marlous; Gale, Chris P; Sundström, Johan; Lindahl, Bertil; Jernberg, Tomas; Szummer, Karolina

2017-12-01

To develop a simple risk-score model for predicting in-hospital cardiac arrest (CA) among patients hospitalized with suspected non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Using the Swedish Web-system for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies (SWEDEHEART), we identified patients (n=242 303) admitted with suspected NSTE-ACS between 2008 and 2014. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between 26 candidate variables and in-hospital CA. A risk-score model was developed and validated using a temporal cohort (n=126 073) comprising patients from SWEDEHEART between 2005 and 2007 and an external cohort (n=276 109) comprising patients from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) between 2008 and 2013. The incidence of in-hospital CA for NSTE-ACS and non-ACS was lower in the SWEDEHEART-derivation cohort than in MINAP (1.3% and 0.5% vs. 2.3% and 2.3%). A seven point, five variable risk score (age ≥60 years (1 point), ST-T abnormalities (2 points), Killip Class >1 (1 point), heart rate <50 or ≥100bpm (1 point), and systolic blood pressure <100mmHg (2 points) was developed. Model discrimination was good in the derivation cohort (c-statistic 0.72) and temporal validation cohort (c-statistic 0.74), and calibration was reasonable with a tendency towards overestimation of risk with a higher sum of score points. External validation showed moderate discrimination (c-statistic 0.65) and calibration showed a general underestimation of predicted risk. A simple points score containing five variables readily available on admission predicts in-hospital CA for patients with suspected NSTE-ACS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A scoring system for ascertainment of incident stroke; the Risk Index Score (RISc).

PubMed

Kass-Hout, T A; Moyé, L A; Smith, M A; Morgenstern, L B

2006-01-01

The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm that could be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain incident stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. The Risk Index Score (RISc) algorithm was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, 2000. The validity of RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment by physician and/or abstractor review of hospital admission records. RISc was developed on 1718 randomly selected patients (training set) and then statistically validated on an independent sample of 858 patients (validation set). A multivariable logistic model was used to develop RISc and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The higher the value of RISc, the higher the patient's risk of potential stroke. The study showed RISc was well calibrated and discriminated those who had potential stroke from those that did not on initial screening. In this study we developed and validated a rapid, easy, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain incident stroke cases from routine hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. Validation of this scoring system was achieved statistically; however, clinical validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.

DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) Diet and Risk of Subsequent Kidney Disease

PubMed Central

Rebholz, Casey M.; Crews, Deidra C.; Grams, Morgan E.; Steffen, Lyn M.; Levey, Andrew S.; Miller, Edgar R.; Appel, Lawrence J.; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

Background There are established guidelines for recommended dietary intake for hypertension treatment and cardiovascular disease prevention. Evidence is lacking for effective dietary patterns for kidney disease prevention. Study Design Prospective cohort study Setting & Participants Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (N=14,882) Predictor The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet score was calculated based on self-reported dietary intake of red and processed meat, sweetened beverages, sodium, fruits, vegetables, whole grains, nuts and legumes, and low-fat dairy products, averaged over two visits. Outcomes Cases were ascertained based on development of eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 accompanied by ≥25% eGFR decline from baseline, an ICD-9/10 code for a kidney disease–related hospitalization or death, or end-stage renal disease from baseline through 2012. Results A total of 3,720 participants developed kidney disease during a median follow-up of 23 years. Participants with a DASH diet score in the lowest tertile were 16% more likely to develop kidney disease than those with the highest score tertile (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.26; p for trend <0.001), after adjusting for socio-demographics, smoking status, physical activity, total caloric intake, baseline eGFR, overweight/obese status, diabetes status, hypertension status, systolic blood pressure, and anti-hypertensive medication use. Of the individual components of the DASH diet score, high intake of red and processed meat was adversely associated with kidney disease and high intake of nuts, legumes, and low-fat dairy products was associated with reduced risk of kidney disease. Limitations Potential measurement error due to self-reported dietary intake and lack of data on albuminuria Conclusions Consuming a DASH-style diet was associated with lower risk for kidney disease, independent of demographic

Disease risk curves.

PubMed

Hughes, G; Burnett, F J; Havis, N D

2013-11-01

Disease risk curves are simple graphical relationships between the probability of need for treatment and evidence related to risk factors. In the context of the present article, our focus is on factors related to the occurrence of disease in crops. Risk is the probability of adverse consequences; specifically in the present context it denotes the chance that disease will reach a threshold level at which crop protection measures can be justified. This article describes disease risk curves that arise when risk is modeled as a function of more than one risk factor, and when risk is modeled as a function of a single factor (specifically the level of disease at an early disease assessment). In both cases, disease risk curves serve as calibration curves that allow the accumulated evidence related to risk to be expressed on a probability scale. When risk is modeled as a function of the level of disease at an early disease assessment, the resulting disease risk curve provides a crop loss assessment model in which the downside is denominated in terms of risk rather than in terms of yield loss.

Predicting Readmission at Early Hospitalization Using Electronic Clinical Data: An Early Readmission Risk Score.

PubMed

Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; Gupta, Vikas; Johannes, Richard S

2017-03-01

Identifying patients at high risk for readmission early during hospitalization may aid efforts in reducing readmissions. We sought to develop an early readmission risk predictive model using automated clinical data available at hospital admission. We developed an early readmission risk model using a derivation cohort and validated the model with a validation cohort. We used a published Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score as an aggregated measure of clinical severity at admission and the number of hospital discharges in the previous 90 days as a measure of disease progression. We then evaluated the administrative data-enhanced model by adding principal and secondary diagnoses and other variables. We examined the c-statistic change when additional variables were added to the model. There were 1,195,640 adult discharges from 70 hospitals with 39.8% male and the median age of 63 years (first and third quartile: 43, 78). The 30-day readmission rate was 11.9% (n=142,211). The early readmission model yielded a graded relationship of readmission and the Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score and the number of previous discharges within 90 days. The model c-statistic was 0.697 with good calibration. When administrative variables were added to the model, the c-statistic increased to 0.722. Automated clinical data can generate a readmission risk score early at hospitalization with fair discrimination. It may have applied value to aid early care transition. Adding administrative data increases predictive accuracy. The administrative data-enhanced model may be used for hospital comparison and outcome research.

Performance of Disease-Specific Scoring Models in Intensive Care Patients with Severe Liver Diseases.

PubMed

El-Ghannam, Maged T; Hassanien, Moataz H; El-Talkawy, Mohamed D; Saleem, Abdel Aziz A; Sabry, Amal I; Abu Taleb, Hoda M

2017-06-01

Egypt has the highest prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in the world, estimated nationally at 14.7%. HCV treatment consumes 20% ($80 million) of Egypt's annual health budget. Outcomes of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU may, in fact, largely depend on differences in the state of the disease, criteria and indications for admission, resource utilization, and intensity of treatment. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the efficacy of liver specific scoring models in predicting the outcome of critically ill cirrhotic patients in the ICU as it may help in prioritization of high risk patients and preservation of ICU resources. Over one year, a total of 777 patients with End Stage Liver Disease (ESLD) due to HCV infection were included in this retrospective non-randomized human study. All statistical analyses were performed by the statistical software SPSS version 22.0 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA). Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) score, MELD score, MELD-Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na were calculated on ICU admission. ICU admission was mainly due to Gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and Hepatic Encephalopathy (HE). Overall mortality was 27%. Age and sex showed no statistical difference between survivors and non survivors. Significantly higher mean values were observed for all models among individuals who died compared to survivors. MELD-Na was the most specific compared to the other scores. MELD-Na was highly predictive of mortality at an optimized cut-off value of 20.4 (AURC=0.789±0.03-CI 95%=0.711-0.865) while original MELD was highly predictive of mortality at an optimized cut-off value of 17.4 (AURC=0.678±0.01-CI 95%=0.613-0.682) denoting the importance of adding serum sodium to the original MELD. INR, serum creatinine, bilirubin, white blood cells count and hyponatremia were significantly higher in non survivors compared to survivors, while hypoalbuminemia showed no statistical difference. The advent of Hepatorenal Syndrome (HRS) and Spontaneous

Assessment of risk factors for earlier onset of sporadic Alzheimer's disease dementia.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Fabricio Ferreira; Bertolucci, Paulo Henrique Ferreira; Chen, Elizabeth Suchi; Smith, Marilia Cardoso

2014-01-01

Pharmacological treatment has mild effects for patients with Alzheimer's disease dementia (AD); therefore, the search for modifiable risk factors is an important challenge. Though risk factors for AD are widely recognized, elements that influence the time of dementia onset have not been comprehensively reported. We aimed to investigate which risk factors might be related to the age of onset of AD in a sample of patients with highly variable educational levels, taking into account the Framingham risk scoring as the sole measure of vascular risk. We included 209 consecutive late-onset AD patients to find out which factors among educational levels, coronary heart disease risk estimated by way of Framingham risk scores, history of head trauma or depression, surgical procedures under general anesthesia, family history of neurodegenerative diseases, gender, marital status and APOE haplotypes might be related to the age of dementia onset in this sample of patients with low mean schooling. Mean age of AD onset was 73.38±6.5 years old, unaffected by schooling or family history of neurodegenerative diseases. Patients who were APOE-ε4 carriers, married, or with history of depression, had earlier onset of AD, particularly when they were women. Coronary heart disease risk was marginally significant for later onset of AD. APOE haplotypes, marital status and history of depression were the most important factors to influence the age of AD onset in this sample. While midlife cerebrovascular risk factors may increase incidence of AD, they may lead to later dementia onset when present in late life.

Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism in Pediatric Trauma Patients and Validation of a Novel Scoring System: The Risk of Clots in Kids with Trauma (ROCKIT score)

PubMed Central

Yen, Jennifer; Van Arendonk, Kyle J.; Streiff, Michael B.; McNamara, LeAnn; Stewart, F. Dylan; Conner G, Kim G; Thompson, Richard E.; Haut, Elliott R.; Takemoto, Clifford M.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES Identify risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) and develop a VTE risk assessment model for pediatric trauma patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS We performed a retrospective review of patients 21 years and younger who were hospitalized following traumatic injuries at the John Hopkins level 1 adult and pediatric trauma center (1987-2011). The clinical characteristics of patients with and without VTE were compared, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for VTE. Weighted risk assessment scoring systems were developed based on these and previously identified factors from patients in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB 2008-2010); the scoring systems were validated in this cohort from Johns Hopkins as well as a cohort of pediatric admissions from the NTDB (2011-2012). MAIN RESULTS Forty-nine of 17,366 pediatric trauma patients (0.28%) were diagnosed with VTE after admission to our trauma center. After adjusting for potential confounders, VTE was independently associated with older age, surgery, blood transfusion, higher Injury Severity Score (ISS), and lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score. These and additional factors were identified in 402,329 pediatric patients from the NTDB from 2008-2010; independent risk factors from the logistic regression analysis of this NTDB cohort were selected and incorporated into weighted risk assessment scoring systems. Two models were developed and were cross-validated in 2 separate pediatric trauma cohorts: 1) 282,535 patients in the NTDB from 2011 to 2012 2) 17,366 patients from Johns Hopkins. The receiver operator curve using these models in the validation cohorts had area under the curves that ranged 90% to 94%. CONCLUSIONS VTE is infrequent after trauma in pediatric patients. We developed weighted scoring systems to stratify pediatric trauma patients at risk for VTE. These systems may have potential to guide risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis in children after

Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study.

PubMed

Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J; Ravelli, Anita C J

2015-08-01

To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score <4; secondary outcomes Apgar score <7, intrauterine fetal death, perinatal mortality, congenital anomalies, small for gestational age, asphyxia related morbidity, and cesarean delivery. The risks of birth asphyxia and related morbidity were calculated in women who conceived either through MAR or spontaneously (SC), with a subgroup analysis for in vitro fertilization (IVF). An additional propensity score matching analysis was performed with matching on multiple maternal baseline covariates (maternal age, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, year of birth, and preexistent diseases). Each MAR pregnancy was matched to three SC controls. Relative to SC, the MAR singletons had an increased risk of adverse neonatal outcomes including Apgar score <4 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.29; 95% CI, 1.14-1.46) and intrauterine fetal death (adjusted OR 1.61; 95% CI, 1.35-1.91). After propensity score matching, the risk of an Apgar score <4 was comparable between MAR and SC singletons (OR 0.99; 95% CI, 0.87-1.14). Cesarean delivery for both fetal distress and nonprogressive labor occurred more among MAR pregnancies compared with SC pregnancies. Term singletons conceived after MAR have an increased risk of morbidity related to birth asphyxia. Because this is mainly due to maternal characteristics, obstetric caregivers should be aware that the increased rates of cesareans reflect the behavior of women and physicians rather than increased perinatal complications. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort.

PubMed

Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y

2018-07-01

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones.

PubMed

Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R

2017-11-01

Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly adults using SCORE OP model in a Latin American population: The experience from Ecuador.

PubMed

Sisa, Ivan

2018-02-09

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is predicted to increase in Latin America countries due to their rapidly aging population. However, there is very little information about CVD risk assessment as a primary preventive measure in this high-risk population. We predicted the national risk of developing CVD in Ecuadorian elderly population using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation in Older Persons (SCORE OP) High and Low models by risk categories/CVD risk region in 2009. Data on national cardiovascular risk factors were obtained from the Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento. We computed the predicted 5-year risk of CVD risk and compared the extent of agreement and reclassification in stratifying high-risk individuals between SCORE OP High and Low models. Analyses were done by risk categories, CVD risk region, and sex. In 2009, based on SCORE OP Low model almost 42% of elderly adults living in Ecuador were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period. The extent of agreement between SCORE OP High and Low risk prediction models was moderate (Cohen's kappa test of 0.5), 34% of individuals approximately were reclassified into different risk categories and a third of the population would benefit from a pharmacologic intervention to reduce the CVD risk. Forty-two percent of elderly Ecuadorians were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period, indicating an urgent need to tailor primary preventive measures for this vulnerable and high-risk population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Standard cardiovascular disease risk algorithms underestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease in schizophrenia: evidence from a national primary care database.

PubMed

McLean, Gary; Martin, Julie Langan; Martin, Daniel J; Guthrie, Bruce; Mercer, Stewart W; Smith, Daniel J

2014-10-01

Schizophrenia is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction algorithms are widely in the general population, their utility for patients with schizophrenia is unknown. A primary care dataset was used to compare CVD risk scores (Joint British Societies (JBS) score), cardiovascular risk factors, rates of pre-existing CVD and age of first diagnosis of CVD for schizophrenia (n=1997) relative to population controls (n=215,165). Pre-existing rates of CVD and the recording of risk factors for those without CVD were higher in the schizophrenia cohort in the younger age groups, for both genders. Those with schizophrenia were more likely to have a first diagnosis of CVD at a younger age, with nearly half of men with schizophrenia plus CVD diagnosed under the age of 55 (schizophrenia men 46.1% vs. control men 34.8%, p<0.001; schizophrenia women 28.9% vs. control women 23.8%, p<0.001). However, despite high rates of CVD risk factors within the schizophrenia group, only a very small percentage (3.2% of men and 7.5% of women) of those with schizophrenia under age 55 were correctly identified as high risk for CVD according to the JBS risk algorithm. The JBS2 risk score identified only a small proportion of individuals with schizophrenia under the age of 55 as being at high risk of CVD, despite high rates of risk factors and high rates of first diagnosis of CVD within this age group. The validity of CVD risk prediction algorithms for schizophrenia needs further research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a risk score for geographic atrophy in complications of the age-related macular degeneration prevention trial.

PubMed

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G

2011-02-01

To develop a risk score for developing geographic atrophy (GA) involving easily obtainable information among patients with bilateral large drusen. Cohort study within a multicenter randomized clinical trial. We included 1052 participants with ≥ 10 large (>125 μm) drusen and visual acuity ≥ 20/40 in each eye. In the Complications of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Prevention Trial (CAPT), 1 eye of each participant was randomly assigned to laser treatment and the contralateral eye was assigned to observation to evaluate whether laser treatment of drusen could prevent vision loss. Gradings by a reading center were used to identify: CAPT end point GA (total area of GA [>250 μm] > 1 disc area), GA (>175 μm) involving the foveal center (CGA), and GA of any size and location (any GA). Established risk factors (age, smoking status, hypertension, Age-related Eye Disease Study simple severity scale score), both with and without a novel risk factor (night vision score), were used in assigning risk points. The risk scores were evaluated for the ability to discriminate and calibrate GA risk. Development of end point GA, CGA, and any GA. Among 942 CAPT participants who completed 5 years of follow-up and did not have any GA at baseline, 6.8% participants developed CAPT end point GA, 9.6% developed CGA, and 34.4% developed any GA. The 5-year incidence of end point GA in 1 or both eyes of a participant increased with the 15-point GA risk score, from 0.6% for <7 points to 15% for ≥ 12 points. The 5-factor risk score predicted development of GA moderately well with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-0.81) for end point GA; 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.80) for CGA, and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.65-0.72) for any GA. Prediction from the risk score without the night vision score had lower AUCs (range, 0.67-0.72). If validated in other patients, the GA risk score will be useful for identifying high-risk patients for

DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) Diet and Risk of Subsequent Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Rebholz, Casey M; Crews, Deidra C; Grams, Morgan E; Steffen, Lyn M; Levey, Andrew S; Miller, Edgar R; Appel, Lawrence J; Coresh, Josef

2016-12-01

There are established guidelines for recommended dietary intake for hypertension treatment and cardiovascular disease prevention. Evidence is lacking for effective dietary patterns for kidney disease prevention. Prospective cohort study. Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 60mL/min/1.73m 2 (N=14,882). The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet score was calculated based on self-reported dietary intake of red and processed meat, sweetened beverages, sodium, fruits, vegetables, whole grains, nuts and legumes, and low-fat dairy products, averaged over 2 visits. Cases were ascertained based on the development of eGFRs<60mL/min/1.73m 2 accompanied by ≥25% eGFR decline from baseline, an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth/Tenth Revision code for a kidney disease-related hospitalization or death, or end-stage renal disease from baseline through 2012. 3,720 participants developed kidney disease during a median follow-up of 23 years. Participants with a DASH diet score in the lowest tertile were 16% more likely to develop kidney disease than those with the highest score tertile (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.26; P for trend < 0.001), after adjusting for sociodemographics, smoking status, physical activity, total caloric intake, baseline eGFR, overweight/obese status, diabetes status, hypertension status, systolic blood pressure, and antihypertensive medication use. Of the individual components of the DASH diet score, high red and processed meat intake was adversely associated with kidney disease and high nuts, legumes, and low-fat dairy products intake was associated with reduced risk for kidney disease. Potential measurement error due to self-reported dietary intake and lack of data for albuminuria. Consuming a DASH-style diet was associated with lower risk for kidney disease independent of demographic characteristics, established kidney risk factors, and

Does my patient have chronic Chagas disease? Development and temporal validation of a diagnostic risk score.

PubMed

Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do; Xavier, Sergio Salles; Holanda, Marcelo Teixeira; Hasslocher-Moreno, Alejandro Marcel; Braga, José Ueleres

2016-01-01

With the globalization of Chagas disease, unexperienced health care providers may have difficulties in identifying which patients should be examined for this condition. This study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic clinical prediction model for chronic Chagas disease. This diagnostic cohort study included consecutive volunteers suspected to have chronic Chagas disease. The clinical information was blindly compared to serological tests results, and a logistic regression model was fit and validated. The development cohort included 602 patients, and the validation cohort included 138 patients. The Chagas disease prevalence was 19.9%. Sex, age, referral from blood bank, history of living in a rural area, recognizing the kissing bug, systemic hypertension, number of siblings with Chagas disease, number of relatives with a history of stroke, ECG with low voltage, anterosuperior divisional block, pathologic Q wave, right bundle branch block, and any kind of extrasystole were included in the final model. Calibration and discrimination in the development and validation cohorts (ROC AUC 0.904 and 0.912, respectively) were good. Sensitivity and specificity analyses showed that specificity reaches at least 95% above the predicted 43% risk, while sensitivity is at least 95% below the predicted 7% risk. Net benefit decision curves favor the model across all thresholds. A nomogram and an online calculator (available at http://shiny.ipec.fiocruz.br:3838/pedrobrasil/chronic_chagas_disease_prediction/) were developed to aid in individual risk estimation.

The Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment: a scoring system to predict the risk of relapse to any alcohol use after liver transplant.

PubMed

Rodrigue, James R; Hanto, Douglas W; Curry, Michael P

2013-12-01

Alcohol relapse after liver transplant heightens concern about recurrent disease, nonadherence to the immunosuppression regimen, and death. To develop a scoring system to stratify risk of alcohol relapse after liver transplant. Retrospective medical record review. All adult liver transplants performed from May 2002 to February 2011 at a single center in the United States. The incidence of return to any alcohol consumption after liver transplant. Thirty-four percent (40/118) of patients with a history of alcohol abuse/dependency relapsed to use of any alcohol after liver transplant. Nine of 25 hypothesized risk factors were predictive of alcohol relapse after liver transplant: absence of hepatocellular carcinoma, tobacco dependence, continued alcohol use after liver disease diagnosis, low motivation for alcohol treatment, poor stress management skills, no rehabilitation relationship, limited social support, lack of nonmedical behavioral consequences, and continued engagement in social activities with alcohol present. Each independent predictor was assigned an Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment (ARRA) risk value of 1 point, and patients were classified into 1 of 4 groups by ARRA score: ARRA I = 0, ARRA II = 1 to 3, ARRA III = 4 to 6, and ARRA IV = 7 to 9. Patients in the 2 higher ARRA classifications had significantly higher rates of alcohol relapse and were more likely to return to pretransplant levels of drinking. Alcohol relapse rates are moderately high after liver transplant. The ARRA is a valid and practical tool for identifying pretransplant patients with alcohol abuse or dependency at elevated risk of any alcohol use after liver transplant.

Surgical apgar score in patients undergoing lumbar fusion for degenerative spine diseases.

PubMed

Ou, Chien-Yu; Hsu, Shih-Yuan; Huang, Jian-Hao; Huang, Yu-Hua

2017-01-01

Lumbar fusion is a procedure broadly performed for degenerative diseases of spines, but it is not without significant morbidities. Surgical Apgar Score (SAS), based on intraoperative blood loss, blood pressure, and heart rate, was developed for prognostic prediction in general and vascular operations. We aimed to examine whether the application of SAS in patients undergoing fusion procedures for degeneration of lumbar spines predicts in-hospital major complications. One hundred and ninety-nine patients that underwent lumbar fusion operation for spine degeneration were enrolled in this retrospective study. Based on whether major complications were present (N=16) or not (N=183), the patients were subdivided. We identified the intergroup differences in SAS and clinical parameters. The incidence of in-hospital major complications was 8%. The duration of hospital stay for the morbid patents was significantly prolonged (p=0.04). In the analysis of multivariable logistic regression, SAS was an independent predicting factor of the complications after lumbar fusion for degenerative spine diseases [p=0.001; odds ratio (95% confidence interval)=0.35 (0.19-0.64)]. Lower scores were accompanied with higher rates of major complications, and the area was 0.872 under the receiver operating characteristic curve. SAS is an independent predicting factor of major complications in patients after fusion surgery for degenerative diseases of lumbar spines, and provides good risk discrimination. Since the scoring system is relatively simple, objective, and practical, we suggest that SAS be included as an indicator in the guidance for level of care after lumbar fusion surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk adjustment for health care financing in chronic disease: what are we missing by failing to account for disease severity?

PubMed

Omachi, Theodore A; Gregorich, Steven E; Eisner, Mark D; Penaloza, Renee A; Tolstykh, Irina V; Yelin, Edward H; Iribarren, Carlos; Dudley, R Adams; Blanc, Paul D

2013-08-01

Adjustment for differing risks among patients is usually incorporated into newer payment approaches, and current risk models rely on age, sex, and diagnosis codes. It is unknown the extent to which controlling additionally for disease severity improves cost prediction. Failure to adjust for within-disease variation may create incentives to avoid sicker patients. We address this issue among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cost and clinical data were collected prospectively from 1202 COPD patients at Kaiser Permanente. Baseline analysis included age, sex, and diagnosis codes (using the Diagnostic Cost Group Relative Risk Score) in a general linear model predicting total medical costs in the following year. We determined whether adding COPD severity measures-forced expiratory volume in 1 second, 6-Minute Walk Test, dyspnea score, body mass index, and BODE Index (composite of the other 4 measures)-improved predictions. Separately, we examined household income as a cost predictor. Mean costs were $12,334/y. Controlling for Relative Risk Score, each ½ SD worsening in COPD severity factor was associated with $629 to $1135 in increased annual costs (all P<0.01). The lowest stratum of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (<30% normal) predicted $4098 (95% confidence interval, $576-$8773) additional costs. Household income predicted excess costs when added to the baseline model (P=0.038), but this became nonsignificant when also incorporating the BODE Index. Disease severity measures explain significant cost variations beyond current risk models, and adding them to such models appears important to fairly compensate organizations that accept responsibility for sicker COPD patients. Appropriately controlling for disease severity also accounts for costs otherwise associated with lower socioeconomic status.

A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

PubMed

Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

2015-09-15

In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An efficient sampling strategy for selection of biobank samples using risk scores.

PubMed

Björk, Jonas; Malmqvist, Ebba; Rylander, Lars; Rignell-Hydbom, Anna

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to suggest a new sample-selection strategy based on risk scores in case-control studies with biobank data. An ongoing Swedish case-control study on fetal exposure to endocrine disruptors and overweight in early childhood was used as the empirical example. Cases were defined as children with a body mass index (BMI) ⩾18 kg/m 2 ( n=545) at four years of age, and controls as children with a BMI of ⩽17 kg/m 2 ( n=4472 available). The risk of being overweight was modelled using logistic regression based on available covariates from the health examination and prior to selecting samples from the biobank. A risk score was estimated for each child and categorised as low (0-5%), medium (6-13%) or high (⩾14%) risk of being overweight. The final risk-score model, with smoking during pregnancy ( p=0.001), birth weight ( p<0.001), BMI of both parents ( p<0.001 for both), type of residence ( p=0.04) and economic situation ( p=0.12), yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 67% ( n=3945 with complete data). The case group ( n=416) had the following risk-score profile: low (12%), medium (46%) and high risk (43%). Twice as many controls were selected from each risk group, with further matching on sex. Computer simulations showed that the proposed selection strategy with stratification on risk scores yielded consistent improvements in statistical precision. Using risk scores based on available survey or register data as a basis for sample selection may improve possibilities to study heterogeneity of exposure effects in biobank-based studies.

Validation of a polygenic risk score for dementia in black and white individuals

PubMed Central

Marden, Jessica R; Walter, Stefan; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Kawachi, Ichiro; Glymour, M Maria

2014-01-01

Objective To determine whether a polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease (AD) predicts dementia probability and memory functioning in non-Hispanic black (NHB) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) participants from a sample not used in previous genome-wide association studies. Methods Non-Hispanic white and NHB Health and Retirement Study (HRS) participants provided genetic information and either a composite memory score (n = 10,401) or a dementia probability score (n = 7690). Dementia probability score was estimated for participants' age 65+ from 2006 to 2010, while memory score was available for participants age 50+. We calculated AD genetic risk scores (AD-GRS) based on 10 polymorphisms confirmed to predict AD, weighting alleles by beta coefficients reported in AlzGene meta-analyses. We used pooled logistic regression to estimate the association of the AD-GRS with dementia probability and generalized linear models to estimate its effect on memory score. Results Each 0.10 unit change in the AD-GRS was associated with larger relative effects on dementia among NHW aged 65+ (OR = 2.22; 95% CI: 1.79, 2.74; P < 0.001) than NHB (OR=1.33; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.77; P = 0.047), although additive effect estimates were similar. Each 0.10 unit change in the AD-GRS was associated with a −0.07 (95% CI: −0.09, −0.05; P < 0.001) SD difference in memory score among NHW aged 50+, but no significant differences among NHB (β = −0.01; 95% CI: −0.04, 0.01; P = 0.546). [Correction added on 29 July 2014, after first online publication: confidence intervalshave been amended.] The estimated effect of the GRS was significantly smaller among NHB than NHW (P < 0.05) for both outcomes. Conclusion This analysis provides evidence for differential relative effects of the GRS on dementia probability and memory score among NHW and NHB in a new, national data set. PMID:25328845

Development and Validation of a Disease Severity Scoring Model for Pediatric Sepsis.

PubMed

Hu, Li; Zhu, Yimin; Chen, Mengshi; Li, Xun; Lu, Xiulan; Liang, Ying; Tan, Hongzhuan

2016-07-01

Multiple severity scoring systems have been devised and evaluated in adult sepsis, but a simplified scoring model for pediatric sepsis has not yet been developed. This study aimed to develop and validate a new scoring model to stratify the severity of pediatric sepsis, thus assisting the treatment of sepsis in children. Data from 634 consecutive patients who presented with sepsis at Children's hospital of Hunan province in China in 2011-2013 were analyzed, with 476 patients placed in training group and 158 patients in validation group. Stepwise discriminant analysis was used to develop the accurate discriminate model. A simplified scoring model was generated using weightings defined by the discriminate coefficients. The discriminant ability of the model was tested by receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). The discriminant analysis showed that prothrombin time, D-dimer, total bilirubin, serum total protein, uric acid, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, myoglobin were associated with severity of sepsis. These seven variables were assigned with values of 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3 respectively based on the standardized discriminant coefficients. Patients with higher scores had higher risk of severe sepsis. The areas under ROC (AROC) were 0.836 for accurate discriminate model, and 0.825 for simplified scoring model in validation group. The proposed disease severity scoring model for pediatric sepsis showed adequate discriminatory capacity and sufficient accuracy, which has important clinical significance in evaluating the severity of pediatric sepsis and predicting its progress.

Performance of Disease Risk Score Matching in Nested Case-Control Studies: A Simulation Study.

PubMed

Desai, Rishi J; Glynn, Robert J; Wang, Shirley; Gagne, Joshua J

2016-05-15

In a case-control study, matching on a disease risk score (DRS), which includes many confounders, should theoretically result in greater precision than matching on only a few confounders; however, this has not been investigated. We simulated 1,000 hypothetical cohorts with a binary exposure, a time-to-event outcome, and 13 covariates. Each cohort comprised 2 subcohorts of 10,000 patients each: a historical subcohort and a concurrent subcohort. DRS were estimated in the historical subcohorts and applied to the concurrent subcohorts. Nested case-control studies were conducted in the concurrent subcohorts using incidence density sampling with 2 strategies-matching on age and sex, with adjustment for additional confounders, and matching on DRS-followed by conditional logistic regression for 9 outcome-exposure incidence scenarios. In all scenarios, DRS matching yielded lower average standard errors and mean squared errors than did matching on age and sex. In 6 scenarios, DRS matching also resulted in greater empirical power. DRS matching resulted in less relative bias than did matching on age and sex at lower outcome incidences but more relative bias at higher incidences. Post-hoc analysis revealed that the effect of DRS model misspecification might be more pronounced at higher outcome incidences, resulting in higher relative bias. These results suggest that DRS matching might increase the statistical efficiency of case-control studies, particularly when the outcome is rare. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Polygenic risk scores for smoking: predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

PubMed

Vink, Jacqueline M; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; de Geus, Eco J C; Willemsen, Gonneke; Neale, Michael C; Furberg, Helena; Boomsma, Dorret I

2014-07-01

A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Summary-level P-values were available for smoking initiation, age at onset of smoking, cigarettes per day and smoking cessation from the Tobacco and Genetics Consortium (n between 22,000 and 70,000 subjects). Using different P-value thresholds (0.1, 0.2 and 0.5) from the meta-analysis, sets of 'risk alleles' were defined and used to generate a polygenic risk score (weighted sum of the alleles) for each subject in an independent target sample from the Netherlands Twin Register (n = 1583). The association between polygenic smoking scores and alcohol/cannabis use was investigated with regression analysis. The polygenic scores for 'cigarettes per day' were associated significantly with the number of glasses alcohol per week (P = 0.005, R2 = 0.4-0.5%) and cannabis initiation (P = 0.004, R2 = 0.6-0.9%). The polygenic scores for 'age at onset of smoking' were associated significantly with 'age at regular drinking' (P = 0.001, R2 = 1.1-1.5%), while the scores for 'smoking initiation' and 'smoking cessation' did not significantly predict alcohol or cannabis use. Smoking, alcohol and cannabis use are influenced by aggregated genetic risk factors shared between these substances. The many common genetic variants each have a very small individual effect size. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.

PubMed

Artigao-Rodenas, Luis M; Carbayo-Herencia, Julio A; Divisón-Garrote, Juan A; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F; Massó-Orozco, Javier; Simarro-Rueda, Marta; Molina-Escribano, Francisca; Sanchis, Carlos; Carrión-Valero, Lucinio; López de Coca, Enrique; Caldevilla, David; López-Abril, Juan; Carratalá-Munuera, Concepción; Lopez-Pineda, Adriana

2013-01-01

The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity. The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated. The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001). The results support the proposal for "reclassification" of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe.

Performance of the Framingham and SCORE cardiovascular risk prediction functions in a non-diabetic population of a Spanish health care centre: a validation study

PubMed Central

Barroso, Lourdes Cañón; Muro, Eloísa Cruces; Herrera, Natalio Díaz; Ochoa, Gerardo Fernández; Hueros, Juan Ignacio Calvo; Buitrago, Francisco

2010-01-01

Objective To analyse the 10-year performance of the original Framingham coronary risk function and of the SCORE cardiovascular death risk function in a non-diabetic population of 40–65 years of age served by a Spanish healthcare centre. Also, to estimate the percentage of patients who are candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. Design Longitudinal, observational study of a retrospective cohort followed up for 10 years. Setting Primary care health centre. Patients A total of 608 non-diabetic patients of 40–65 years of age (mean 52.8 years, 56.7% women), without evidence of cardiovascular disease were studied. Main outcome measures Coronary risk at 10 years from the time of their recruitment, using the tables based on the original Framingham function, and of their 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease using the SCORE tables. Results The actual incidence rates of coronary and fatal cardiovascular events were 7.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The original Framingham equation over-predicted risk by 64%, while SCORE function over-predicted risk by 40%, but the SCORE model performed better than the Framingham one for discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function classified 18.3% of the population as high risk and SCORE 9.2%. The proportions of patients who would be candidates for lipid-lowering therapy were 31.0% and 23.8% according to the original Framingham and SCORE functions, respectively, and 36.8% and 31.2% for antihypertensive therapy. Conclusion The SCORE function showed better values than the original Framingham function for each of the discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function selected a greater percentage of candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. PMID:20873973

Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

PubMed

Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

2011-01-01

Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

Risk factors for low bone mineral density in children and adolescents with inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Lopes, Letícia Helena Caldas; Sdepanian, Vera Lucia; Szejnfeld, Vera Lúcia; de Morais, Mauro Batista; Fagundes-Neto, Ulysses

2008-10-01

To evaluate bone mineral density of the lumbar spine in children and adolescents with inflammatory bowel disease, and to identify the clinical risk factors associated with low bone mineral density. Bone mineral density of the lumbar spine was evaluated using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in 40 patients with inflammatory bowel disease. Patients were 11.8 (SD = 4.1) years old and most of them were male (52.5%). Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify potential associations between bone mineral density Z-score and age, height-for-age Z-score, BMI Z-score, cumulative corticosteroid dose in milligrams and in milligrams per kilogram, disease duration, number of relapses, and calcium intake according to the dietary reference intake. Low bone mineral density (Z-score bellow -2) was observed in 25% of patients. Patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis had equivalent prevalence of low bone mineral density. Multiple linear regression models demonstrated that height-for-age Z-score, BMI Z-score, and cumulative corticosteroid dose in mg had independent effects on BMD, respectively, beta = 0.492 (P = 0.000), beta = 0.460 (P = 0.001), beta = - 0.014 (P = 0.000), and these effects remained significant after adjustments for disease duration, respectively, beta = 0.489 (P = 0.013), beta = 0.467 (P = 0.001), and beta = - 0.005 (P = 0.015). The model accounted for 54.6% of the variability of the BMD Z-score (adjusted R2 = 0.546). The prevalence of low bone mineral density in children and adolescents with inflammatory bowel disease is considerably high and independent risk factors associated with bone mineral density are corticosteroid cumulative dose in milligrams, height-for-age Z-score, and BMI Z-score.

Development and validation of an all-cause mortality risk score in type 2 diabetes.