Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W.; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.
Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions. PMID:25404329
Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E
Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.
Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A
Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.
Karmali, Kunal N; Persell, Stephen D; Perel, Pablo; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Berendsen, Mark A; Huffman, Mark D
The current paradigm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) emphasises absolute risk assessment to guide treatment decisions in primary prevention. Although the derivation and validation of multivariable risk assessment tools, or CVD risk scores, have attracted considerable attention, their effect on clinical outcomes is uncertain. To assess the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library (2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March week 1 2016), Embase (embase.com) (1974 to 15 March 2016), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 15 March 2016). We imposed no language restrictions. We searched clinical trial registers in March 2016 and handsearched reference lists of primary studies to identify additional reports. We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing the systematic provision of CVD risk scores by a clinician, healthcare professional, or healthcare system compared with usual care (i.e. no systematic provision of CVD risk scores) in adults without CVD. Three review authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated study quality. We used the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool to assess study limitations. The primary outcomes were: CVD events, change in CVD risk factor levels (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and multivariable CVD risk), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included: lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication prescribing in higher-risk people. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) for continuous data using 95% confidence intervals. We used a fixed-effects model when heterogeneity (I²) was at least 50% and a random-effects model for substantial heterogeneity
Che, Ronglin; Motsinger-Reif, Alison A
The goal of association mapping is to identify genetic variants that predict disease, and as the field of human genetics matures, the number of successful association studies is increasing. Many such studies have shown that for many diseases, risk is explained by a reasonably large number of variants that each explains a very small amount of disease risk. This is prompting the use of genetic risk scores in building predictive models, where information across several variants is combined for predictive modeling. In the current study, we compare the performance of four previously proposed genetic risk score methods and present a new method for constructing genetic risk score that incorporates explained variance information. The methods compared include: a simple count Genetic Risk Score, an odds ratio weighted Genetic Risk Score, a direct logistic regression Genetic Risk Score, a polygenic Genetic Risk Score, and the new explained variance weighted Genetic Risk Score. We compare the methods using a wide range of simulations in two steps, with a range of the number of deleterious single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explaining disease risk, genetic modes, baseline penetrances, sample sizes, relative risks (RR) and minor allele frequencies (MAF). Several measures of model performance were compared including overall power, C-statistic and Akaike's Information Criterion. Our results show the relative performance of methods differs significantly, with the new explained variance weighted GRS (EV-GRS) generally performing favorably to the other methods.
Connolly, John G; Gagne, Joshua J
Previous studies have compared calipers for propensity score (PS) matching, but none have considered calipers for matching on the disease risk score (DRS). We used Medicare claims data to perform 3 cohort studies of medication initiators: a study of raloxifene versus alendronate in 1-year nonvertebral fracture risk, a study of cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitors versus nonselective nonsteroidal antiinflammatory medications in 6-month gastrointestinal bleeding, and a study of simvastatin + ezetimibe versus simvastatin alone in 6-month cardiovascular outcomes. The study periods for each cohort were 1998 through 2005, 1999 through 2002, and 2004 through 2005, respectively. In each cohort, we calculated 1) a DRS, 2) a prognostic PS which included the DRS as the independent variable in a PS model, and 3) the PS for each patient. We then nearest-neighbor matched on each score in a variable ratio and a fixed ratio within 8 calipers based on the standard deviation of the logit and the natural score scale. When variable ratio matching on the DRS, a caliper of 0.05 on the natural scale performed poorly when the outcome was rare. The prognostic PS did not appear to offer any consistent practical benefits over matching on the DRS directly. In general, logit-based calipers or calipers smaller than 0.05 on the natural scale performed well when DRS matching in all examples. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Lim, Hee Joong; Ahn, Seong Hee; Hong, Seongbin; Suh, Young Ju
Subclinical hyperthyroidism and subclinical hypothyroidism are characterized by abnormal thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) with normal free thyroxine. Subclinical thyroid diseases, to date, have received less attention compared with other thyroid diseases since they are asymptomatic. This study aimed to verify the association between subclinical thyroid diseases and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) risk score in the Korean population. This was a population-based cohort study using data collected from 3,722 subjects (aged ≥ 30 years) during the 6th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES VI; 2013-2015). Gender-specific Framingham risk scores were calculated to identify the association between subclinical thyroid diseases and 10-year CVD risk score. Complex survey, with consideration of sampling weight, was analyzed using generalized linear models after stratification by gender. The TSH reference range was between 0.61 and 6.91 mIU/L in this study. TSH showed a positive association with the 10-year CVD risk score only in the female population (P = 0.001). There were significant differences in the least squares means of 10-year CVD risk score by the effect of subclinical hypothyroidism compared with euthyroidism (normal group) in females, after adjusting for body mass index, white blood cell, and urine iodine (P = 0.006 and Bonferroni corrected P = 0.012). In conclusion, subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with increased 10-year CVD risk score in the female Korean population aged 30 years or more. Therefore, we recommend to clinically checkup major CVD risk factors in female patients with subclinical hypothyroidism aged 30 years or more. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.
Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J.; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A.
Objective To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. Design A longitudinal, community-based study. Setting New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. Main Outcome Measures We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their βcoefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Results Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE ε4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. Conclusions While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies. PMID:20625090
Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A
To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.
Zupančič, Katarina; Skok, Kristijan; Repnik, Katja; Weersma, Rinse K; Potočnik, Uroš; Skok, Pavel
AIM: To develop a risk model for Crohn’s disease (CD) based on homogeneous population. METHODS: In our study were included 160 CD patients and 209 healthy individuals from Slovenia. The association study was performed for 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We generated genetic risk scores (GRS) based on the number of risk alleles using weighted additive model. Discriminatory accuracy was measured by area under ROC curve (AUC). For risk evaluation, we divided individuals according to positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR) of a test, with LR > 5 for high risk group and LR < 0.20 for low risk group. RESULTS: The highest accuracy, AUC of 0.78 was achieved with GRS combining 33 SNPs with optimal sensitivity and specificity of 75.0% and 72.7%, respectively. Individuals with the highest risk (GRS > 5.54) showed significantly increased odds of developing CD (OR = 26.65, 95%CI: 11.25-63.15) compared to the individuals with the lowest risk (GRS < 4.57) which is a considerably greater risk captured than in one SNP with the highest effect size (OR = 3.24). When more than 33 SNPs were included in GRS, discriminatory ability was not improved significantly; AUC of all 74 SNPs was 0.76. CONCLUSION: The authors proved the possibility of building accurate genetic risk score based on 33 risk variants on Slovenian CD patients which may serve as a screening tool in the targeted population. PMID:27076762
Zupančič, Katarina; Skok, Kristijan; Repnik, Katja; Weersma, Rinse K; Potočnik, Uroš; Skok, Pavel
To develop a risk model for Crohn's disease (CD) based on homogeneous population. In our study were included 160 CD patients and 209 healthy individuals from Slovenia. The association study was performed for 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We generated genetic risk scores (GRS) based on the number of risk alleles using weighted additive model. Discriminatory accuracy was measured by area under ROC curve (AUC). For risk evaluation, we divided individuals according to positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR) of a test, with LR > 5 for high risk group and LR < 0.20 for low risk group. The highest accuracy, AUC of 0.78 was achieved with GRS combining 33 SNPs with optimal sensitivity and specificity of 75.0% and 72.7%, respectively. Individuals with the highest risk (GRS > 5.54) showed significantly increased odds of developing CD (OR = 26.65, 95%CI: 11.25-63.15) compared to the individuals with the lowest risk (GRS < 4.57) which is a considerably greater risk captured than in one SNP with the highest effect size (OR = 3.24). When more than 33 SNPs were included in GRS, discriminatory ability was not improved significantly; AUC of all 74 SNPs was 0.76. The authors proved the possibility of building accurate genetic risk score based on 33 risk variants on Slovenian CD patients which may serve as a screening tool in the targeted population.
So, Ji-Hyun; Shin, Jin-Young; Park, Wan
Background Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in cancer survivors. The aim of this study was to investigate the modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors and 10-year probability of the disease based on the Framingham risk score in cancer survivors, compared with the general population. Methods A total of 1,225 cancer survivors and 5,196 non-cancer controls who participated in the 2007–2013 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were enrolled. We assessed modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors including smoking, body mass index, physical inactivity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and elevated blood glucose level. The 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease was determined by applying the Framingham cardiovascular disease risk equation among cancer survivors and non-cancer controls, ranging from 30 to 74 years old who had no overt cardiovascular diseases. Results The proportion of subjects who had higher fasting glucose levels, hemoglobin A1c levels, systolic blood pressure, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and those who had lower high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels was significantly higher in the cancer survivors than in the non-cancer controls. The average 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease among the cancer survivors was higher than that in the non-cancer controls in both men and women. The average 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease in relation to the cancer type was significantly higher in patients with hepatic, colon, lung, breast, and gastric cancer. Conclusion Cancer survivors have a higher cardiovascular disease risk and 10-year probability of cardiovascular disease than non-cancer controls. Control of cardiovascular disease risk factors and implementation of a well-defined cardiovascular disease prevention program are needed for treating cancer survivors. PMID:27468342
Salinas, Jennifer J.; Abdelbary, Bassent; Wilson, Jeffrey; Hossain, Monir; Fisher-Hoch, Susan; McCormick, Joseph
Background This study uses the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) for 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) to evaluate differences between Mexican American immigrants and the U.S.-born population. Methods and Results Data from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (N=1,559). Average total risk scores were generated by age group for each gender. Regression analysis was conducted adjusting for covariates and interaction effects. Both women and men in the CCHC sample who were long-term immigrant residents (mean FRS scores women 4.2 with p<.001 vs. men 4.0 with p<.001) or born in the U.S. (mean FRS scores women 4.6 with p<.001 vs. men 3.3 with p<.001) had significantly higher risk scores than immigrants who had only been in this country for less than 10 years. The interaction model indicates that differences between immigrant and native-born Mexican Americans are most greatly felt at lowest levels of socioeconomic status for men in the CCHC. Conclusions This study suggests that in terms of immigrant advantage in CVD risk, on whom, where, and how the comparisons are being made have important implications for the degree of difference observed. PMID:22643615
Glynn, Robert J; Gagne, Joshua J; Schneeweiss, Sebastian
Background Usefulness of propensity scores and regression models to balance potential confounders at treatment initiation may be limited for newly introduced therapies with evolving use patterns. Objectives To consider settings in which the disease risk score has theoretical advantages as a balancing score in comparative effectiveness research, because of stability of disease risk and the availability of ample historical data on outcomes in people treated before introduction of the new therapy. Methods We review the indications for and balancing properties of disease risk scores in the setting of evolving therapies, and discuss alternative approaches for estimation. We illustrate development of a disease risk score in the context of the introduction of atorvastatin and the use of high-dose statin therapy beginning in 1997, based on data from 5,668 older survivors of myocardial infarction who filled a statin prescription within 30 days after discharge from 1995 until 2004. Theoretical considerations suggested development of a disease risk score among non-users of atorvastatin and high-dose statins during the period 1995–1997. Results Observed risk of events increased from 11% to 35% across quintiles of the disease risk score which had a C-statistic of 0.71. The score allowed control of many potential confounders even during early follow-up with few study endpoints. Conclusions Balancing on a disease risk score offers an attractive alternative to a propensity score in some settings such as newly marketed drugs and provides an important axis for evaluation of potential effect modification. Joint consideration of propensity and disease risk scores may be valuable. PMID:22552989
Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Quispe, Renato; Peralta, Frank; Poterico, Julio A; Valle, Giancarlo A; Burroughs, Melissa; Pillay, Timesh; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Malaga, Germán; Smeeth, Liam; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Miranda, J Jaime
It is unclear how well currently available risk scores predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in low-income and middle-income countries. We aim to compare the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort risk equations (ACC/AHA model) with 6 other CVD risk tools to assess the concordance of predicted CVD risk in a random sample from 5 geographically diverse Peruvian populations. We used data from 2 Peruvian, age and sex-matched, population-based studies across 5 geographical sites. The ACC/AHA model were compared with 6 other CVD risk prediction tools: laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, non-laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, Reynolds risk score, systematic coronary risk evaluation, World Health Organization risk charts, and the Lancet chronic diseases risk charts. Main outcome was in agreement with predicted CVD risk using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Two thousand one hundred and eighty-three subjects, mean age 54.3 (SD ± 5.6) years, were included in the analysis. Overall, we found poor agreement between different scores when compared with ACC/AHA model. When each of the risk scores was used with cut-offs specified in guidelines, ACC/AHA model depicted the highest proportion of people at high CVD risk predicted at 10 years, with a prevalence of 29.0% (95% confidence interval, 26.9-31.0%), whereas prevalence with World Health Organization risk charts was 0.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-8.6%). In conclusion, poor concordance between current CVD risk scores demonstrates the uncertainty of choosing any of them for public health and clinical interventions in Latin American populations. There is a need to improve the evidence base of risk scores for CVD in low-income and middle-income countries.
Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Quispe, Renato; Peralta, Frank; Poterico, Julio A.; Valle, Giancarlo A.; Burroughs, Melissa; Pillay, Timesh; Gilman, Robert H.; Checkley, William; Malaga, Germán; Smeeth, Liam; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio
It is unclear how well currently available risk scores predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in low-income and middle-income countries. We aim to compare the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort risk equations (ACC/AHA model) with 6 other CVD risk tools to assess the concordance of predicted CVD risk in a random sample from 5 geographically diverse Peruvian populations. We used data from 2 Peruvian, age and sex-matched, population-based studies across 5 geographical sites. The ACC/AHA model were compared with 6 other CVD risk prediction tools: laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, non-laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, Reynolds risk score, systematic coronary risk evaluation, World Health Organization risk charts, and the Lancet chronic diseases risk charts. Main outcome was in agreement with predicted CVD risk using Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient. Two thousand one hundred and eighty-three subjects, mean age 54.3 (SD ± 5.6) years, were included in the analysis. Overall, we found poor agreement between different scores when compared with ACC/AHA model. When each of the risk scores was used with cut-offs specified in guidelines, ACC/AHA model depicted the highest proportion of people at high CVD risk predicted at 10 years, with a prevalence of 29.0% (95% confidence interval, 26.9–31.0%), whereas prevalence with World Health Organization risk charts was 0.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.2–8.6%). In conclusion, poor concordance between current CVD risk scores demonstrates the uncertainty of choosing any of them for public health and clinical interventions in Latin American populations. There is a need to improve the evidence base of risk scores for CVD in low-income and middle-income countries. PMID:26102017
Hu, Guizhou; Root, Martin; Duncan, Ashlee W
Purpose Since the introduction of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), numerous versions of coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction models have claimed improvement over the FRS. Tzoulaki et al challenged the validity of these claims by illustrating methodology deficiencies among the studies. However, the question remains: Is it possible to create a new CHD model that is better than FRS while overcoming the noted deficiencies? To address this, a new CHD prediction model was developed by integrating additional risk factors, using a novel modeling process. Methods Using the National Health Nutritional Examination Survey III data set with CHD-specific mortality outcomes and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities data set with CHD incidence outcomes, two FRSs (FRSv1 from 1998 and FRSv2 from National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III), along with an additional risk score in which the high density lipoprotein (HDL) component of FRSv1 was ignored (FRSHDL), were compared with a new CHD model (NEW-CHD). This new model contains seven elements: the original Framingham equation, FRSv1, and six additional risk factors. Discrimination, calibration, and reclassification improvements all were assessed among models. Results Discrimination was improved for NEW-CHD in both cohorts when compared with FRSv1 and FRSv2 (P<0.05) and was similar in magnitude to the improvement of FRSv1 over FRSHDL. NEW-CHD had a similar calibration to FRSv2 and was improved over FRSv1. Net reclassification for NEW-CHD was substantially improved over both FRSv1 and FRSv2, for both cohorts, and was similar in magnitude to the improvement of FRSv1 over FRSHDL. Conclusion While overcoming several methodology deficiencies reported by earlier authors, the NEW-CHD model improved CHD risk assessment when compared with the FRSs, comparable to the improvement of adding HDL to the FRS. PMID:25228812
Hu, Guizhou; Root, Martin; Duncan, Ashlee W
Since the introduction of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), numerous versions of coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction models have claimed improvement over the FRS. Tzoulaki et al challenged the validity of these claims by illustrating methodology deficiencies among the studies. However, the question remains: Is it possible to create a new CHD model that is better than FRS while overcoming the noted deficiencies? To address this, a new CHD prediction model was developed by integrating additional risk factors, using a novel modeling process. Using the National Health Nutritional Examination Survey III data set with CHD-specific mortality outcomes and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities data set with CHD incidence outcomes, two FRSs (FRSv1 from 1998 and FRSv2 from National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III), along with an additional risk score in which the high density lipoprotein (HDL) component of FRSv1 was ignored (FRSHDL), were compared with a new CHD model (NEW-CHD). This new model contains seven elements: the original Framingham equation, FRSv1, and six additional risk factors. Discrimination, calibration, and reclassification improvements all were assessed among models. Discrimination was improved for NEW-CHD in both cohorts when compared with FRSv1 and FRSv2 (P<0.05) and was similar in magnitude to the improvement of FRSv1 over FRSHDL. NEW-CHD had a similar calibration to FRSv2 and was improved over FRSv1. Net reclassification for NEW-CHD was substantially improved over both FRSv1 and FRSv2, for both cohorts, and was similar in magnitude to the improvement of FRSv1 over FRSHDL. While overcoming several methodology deficiencies reported by earlier authors, the NEW-CHD model improved CHD risk assessment when compared with the FRSs, comparable to the improvement of adding HDL to the FRS.
Goh, Louise Gh; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S; Welborn, Timothy A; Thompson, Peter L; Maycock, Bruce R; Kerr, Deborah A; Lee, Andy H; Bertolatti, Dean; Clark, Karin M; Naheed, Rakhshanda; Coorey, Ranil; Della, Phillip R
Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20-69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were consistent with Australian CVD prevalence. In summary, ethnicity needs to be incorporated into CVD risk assessment. Australian standards used to quantify risk and treat women could be applied to Asians in the interim. The SCORE risk chart for low-risk regions and Framingham risk score model for incidence are recommended. The inclusion of other relevant risk variables such as obesity, poor diet/nutrition, and low levels of physical activity may improve risk estimation.
Araujo, Andre B.; Hall, Susan A.; Ganz, Peter; Chiu, Gretchen R.; Rosen, Raymond C.; Kupelian, Varant; Travison, Thomas G.; McKinlay, John B.
Objective To determine whether erectile dysfunction (ED) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) beyond traditional risk factors. Background ED and CVD share pathophysiological mechanisms and often co-occur. It is unknown whether ED improves the prediction of CVD beyond traditional risk factors. Methods This was a prospective, population-based study of 1,709 men (of 3,258 eligible) aged 40–70 years. ED was measured by self-report. Subjects were followed for CVD for an average follow-up of 11.7 years. The association between ED and CVD was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The discriminatory capability of ED was examined using c statistics. The reclassification of CVD risk associated with ED was assessed using a method that quantifies net reclassification improvement. Results 1,057 men with complete risk factor data who were free of CVD and diabetes at baseline were included. During follow-up, 261 new cases of CVD occurred. ED was associated with CVD incidence controlling for age (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.42 (95% Confidence Interval (CI)): 1.05, 1.90), age and traditional CVD risk factors (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.90), as well as age and Framingham risk score (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.04–1.88). Despite these significant findings, ED did not significantly improve the prediction of CVD incidence beyond traditional risk factors. Conclusions Independent of established CVD risk factors, ED is significantly associated with increased CVD incidence. Nonetheless, ED does not improve the prediction of who will and will not develop CVD beyond that offered by traditional risk factors. PMID:20117441
Stanzani, Marta; Lewis, Russell E; Fiacchini, Mauro; Ricci, Paolo; Tumietto, Fabio; Viale, Pierluigi; Ambretti, Simone; Baccarani, Michele; Cavo, Michele; Vianelli, Nicola
A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD) in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008) to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD) were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of < 6 discriminated patients with low (< 1%) versus higher incidence rates (> 5%) of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99). During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of < 6 had significantly lower 90-day incidence rates of IMD compared to patients with scores > 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001). An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.
Stanzani, Marta; Lewis, Russell E.; Fiacchini, Mauro; Ricci, Paolo; Tumietto, Fabio; Viale, Pierluigi; Ambretti, Simone; Baccarani, Michele; Cavo, Michele; Vianelli, Nicola
Background A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD) in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008) to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. Results Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD) were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of < 6 discriminated patients with low (< 1%) versus higher incidence rates (> 5%) of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99). During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of < 6 had significantly lower 90-day incidence rates of IMD compared to patients with scores > 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001). Conclusion An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate “screening-out” of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis. PMID:24086555
Aydin, Hasan; Yencilek, Faruk; Erihan, Ismet Bilger; Okan, Binnur; Sarica, Kemal
Both the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and event rate are increased in patients with urolithiasis. Screening is recommended to all patients who have high cardiovascular risk. The aim of this study was to document 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in asymptomatic patients with urolithiasis. Consecutive 200 patients with calcium oxalate urolithiasis were compared with 200 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. Ten-year cardiovascular disease risk was calculated with the Framingham Risk Score and mortality risk with SCORE risk score. Calcium, oxalate, and citrate excretion were studied as urinary stone risk factors. The results indicate that patients with urolithiasis had higher total cholesterol (p < 0.0001), lower HDL-cholesterol (p < 0.0001), and higher systolic blood pressure (p < 0.0001) and hsCRP (p < 0.0001) compared with controls. Patients with urolithiasis had a higher Framingham Risk Scores [OR 8.36 (95% CI 3.81-18.65), p = 0.0001] and SCORE risk score [OR 3.02 (95% CI 1.30-7.02), p = 0.0006] compared with controls. The Framingham and SCORE risk score were significantly correlated with urinary calcium (p = 0.0001, r = 0.460, and p = 0.005, r = 0.223, respectively) and oxalate excretion (p = 0.0001, r = 0.516, p = 0.001, r = 0.290, respectively). In multiple linear regression analysis, urinary calcium and oxalate excretion, age, sex, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, hsCRP and smoking were the independent predictors of 10-year cardiovascular disease risk and urinary calcium and oxalate excretion, age, sex, total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose for 10-year cardiovascular mortality. In conclusion, patients with calcium oxalate urolithiasis carry high risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. All patients should be screened at the initial diagnosis of urolithiasis for the risk factors.
Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Koudstaal, Peter J; Stricker, Bruno H; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Ikram, M Arfan
At present, there are no validated methods to identify persons who are at increased risk for Parkinson Disease (PD) from the general population. We investigated the clinical usefulness of a recently proposed non-motor risk score for PD (the PREDICT-PD risk score) in the population-based Rotterdam Study. At baseline (1990), we constructed a weighted risk score based on 10 early nonmotor features and risk factors in 6492 persons free of parkinsonism and dementia. We followed these persons for up to 20 years (median 16.1 years) for the onset of PD until 2011. We studied the association between the PREDICT-PD risk score and incident PD using competing risk regression models with adjustment for age and sex. In addition, we assessed whether the PREDICT-PD risk score improved discrimination (C-statistics) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement) of incident PD beyond age and sex. During follow-up, 110 persons were diagnosed with incident PD. The PREDICT-PD risk score was associated with incident PD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.30; 95 % confidence interval [1.06; 1.59]) and yielded a small, non-significant improvement in overall discrimination (ΔC-statistic = 0.018[-0.005; 0.041]) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement = 0.172[-0.017; 0.360]) of incident PD. In conclusion, the PREDICT-PD risk score only slightly improves long-term prediction of PD in the community.
Fung, Teresa T; Pan, An; Hou, Tao; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B
Currently, there are few diet quality assessment tools that are predictive of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk that do not require nutrient analysis and substantial time to administer in clinical settings. To inform the development of such a tool, we prospectively examined the association between a food-based diet quality score and risk of CAD in 3 separate large US cohort studies. Between 1984 and 2012, 71,415 women (aged 43-63 y in 1984), 42,945 men (aged 40-75 y in 1986), and 93,131 younger women (aged 27-44 y in 1991) without a history of cardiovascular disease were followed up to 28 y. Diet was assessed ≤7 times by using repeated food-frequency questionnaires. We computed the Food Quality Score (FQS) for each individual based on food groups previously associated with less weight gain. A higher score represented a healthier diet. The FQS and CAD association was modeled with the Cox proportional hazard model, controlling for potential confounders. We also compared the magnitude of association with CAD for the FQS and other diet quality scores. We ascertained 6817 incident total CAD events, with 4588 cases of nonfatal myocardial infarction and 2131 fatal CAD events. Comparing top to bottom deciles, pooled RRs of the FQS were 0.61 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.69; P-trend < 0.001) for total CAD. These associations were independent of established cardiovascular disease risk factors including body weight, physical activity, and smoking. The magnitude of the RR for 1 SD of the FQS and CAD was generally similar to established diet scores that require detailed nutrient analysis, including the Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010, the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension score, and the alternate Mediterranean diet score. A higher food-based diet quality score was associated with lower risk of CAD and was comparable with established diet scores. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.
Chen, Lin; Mukerjee, Gouri; Dorfman, Ruslan; Moghadas, Seyed M.
Much effort has been devoted to assess disease risk based on large-scale protein-protein network and genotype-phenotype associations. However, the challenge of risk prediction for complex diseases remains unaddressed. Here, we propose a framework to quantify the risk based on a Voronoi tessellation network analysis, taking into account the disease association scores of both genes and variants. By integrating ClinVar, SNPnexus, and DISEASES databases, we introduce a gene-variant map that is based on the pairwise disease-associated gene-variant scores. This map is clustered using Voronoi tessellation and network analysis with a threshold obtained from fitting the background Voronoi cell density distribution. We define the relative risk of disease that is inferred from the scores of the data points within the related clusters on the gene-variant map. We identify autoimmune-associated clusters that may interact at the system-level. The proposed framework can be used to determine the clusters that are specific to a subtype or contribute to multiple subtypes of complex diseases. PMID:28326099
Nobili, Valerio; Donati, Benedetta; Panera, Nadia; Vongsakulyanon, Apirom; Alisi, Anna; Dallapiccola, Bruno; Valenti, Luca
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the most common cause of chronic liver disease in industrialized countries in adults and children, following the trail of the epidemic diffusion of obesity. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a potentially serious form of NAFLD linked with a significant increase in overall and liver-related morbidity and mortality. Because diagnosis still requires liver biopsy, there is urgent need of developing noninvasive early markers. The aim of the present study was to assess whether the simultaneous detection of genetic risk factors could predict NASH. We enrolled 152 untreated, consecutive obese children and adolescents with biopsy-proven NAFLD and increased liver enzymes. The PNPLA3 rs738409 C>G (I148 M), SOD2 rs4880 C>T, KLF6 rs3750861 G>A, and LPIN1 rs13412852 C>T polymorphisms were detected by Taqman assays. A multivariate logistic model based on the genetic risk factors significantly predicted NASH (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.82, P < 0.0001), performing better than a clinical risk score identified at stepwise regression based on age, aspartate aminotransferase levels, and diastolic blood pressure (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.57-0.75). A single cutoff value of the genetic risk score had 90% sensitivity and 36% specificity for NASH. A risk score combining the clinical and genetic risk factors resulted in an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.73-0.87). A score based on genetic risk factors significantly predicts NASH in obese children with increased liver enzymes, representing a proof-of-principle that genetic scores may be useful to predict long-term outcomes of the disease and guide clinical management.
Osugi, Naohiro; Suzuki, Susumu; Shibata, Yohei; Tatami, Yosuke; Harata, Shingo; Ota, Tomoyuki; Hayashi, Mutsuharu; Yasuda, Yoshinari; Ishii, Hideki; Shimizu, Atsuya; Murohara, Toyoaki
Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive value of CAC scores for the incidence of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) after cardiac catheterization in non-dialyzed CKD patients. The present study evaluated a total of 140 CKD patients who underwent cardiac catheterization. Patients were stratified into two groups based on the optimal cut-off value of the CAC score, which was graded by a non-triggered, routine diagnostic chest computed tomography scan: CAC score ≥8 (high CAC group); and CAC score <8 (low CAC group). CIN was defined as an increase of >10 % in the baseline serum cystatin C level at 24 h after contrast administration. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate levels were 41.1 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and the mean contrast dose administered was 37.5 mL. Patients with high CAC scores exhibited a higher incidence of CIN than patients with low CAC scores (25.5 vs. 3.2 %, p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment for confounders, the CAC score predicted CIN (odds ratio 1.68, 95 % confidence interval 1.28-2.21, p < 0.001). Moreover, the C-index for CIN prediction significantly increased when the CAC scores were added to the Mehran risk score (0.855 vs. 0.760, p = 0.023). CAC scores, as evaluated using semi-quantitative methods, are a simple and powerful predictor of CIN. Incorporating the CAC score in the Mehran risk score significantly improved the predictive ability to predict CIN incidence.
Gander, Jennifer; Hazlett, Linda J; Cai, Bo; Hébert, James R.; Blair, Steven N.
Introduction Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of death in the United States. The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) was developed to help clinicians in determining their patients’ CHD risk. We hypothesize that the FRS will be significantly predictive of CHD events among men in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS) population. Methods Our study consisted of 34,557 men who attended the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, Texas, for a baseline clinical examination from 1972 through 2002. CHD events included self-reported myocardial infarction or revascularization or death due to CHD. During the 12-year follow-up 587 CHD events occurred. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios generated from ACLS analysis were compared with the application of FRS to the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). Results The ACLS cohort produced similar hazard ratios to the FHS. The adjusted Cox proportional hazard model revealed that men with total cholesterol of 280 mg/dL or greater were 2.21 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.59–3.09) times more likely to have a CHD event than men with total cholesterol from 160 through 199mg/dL; men with diabetes were 1.63 (95% CI, 1.35–1.98) times more likely to experience a CHD event than men without diabetes. Conclusion The FRS significantly predicts CHD events in the ACLS cohort. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of a large, single-center cohort study to validate the FRS by using extensive laboratory and clinical measurements. PMID:25121352
Ooi, Geraldine J; Burton, Paul R; Doyle, Lisa; Wentworth, John M; Bhathal, Prithi S; Sikaris, Ken; Cowley, Michael A; Roberts, Stuart K; Kemp, William; O'Brien, Paul E; Brown, Wendy A
Obesity and its related comorbidities are significant risk factors for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Liver fibrosis is the major determinant of long-term outcomes in NAFLD. A non-invasive tool that accurately identifies obese patients at elevated risk of liver fibrosis would be of significant value. Fibrosis risk scores in patients with NAFLD have been proposed but have not been validated in obese populations. We aimed to validate established simple fibrosis scores in bariatric surgical patients. We conducted a prospective study of 107 consecutive high-risk obese patients undergoing primary bariatric surgery. Proposed fibrosis scores (NAFLD fibrosis score; body mass index (BMI), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase ratio (ALT), and diabetes (BARD); Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4); Forn; and AST to platelet ratio index) were calculated and compared hepatic fibrosis determined by histology of intraoperative liver biopsies. Accuracy was determined, and fibrosis score thresholds were optimized. These modified thresholds were then validated in an independent bariatric surgical population. Liver biopsies were available in 101 patients. Sixty-eight patients had some degree of fibrosis, with 23 patients (23 %) having significant fibrosis (F2-4). The Forn score best predicted significant fibrosis (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.724, p = 0.001). With standard thresholds, the sensitivity for the Forn score for identification of significant fibrosis (F2-4) was 0 %. Using modified thresholds of 3.5, the sensitivity and negative predictive value increased to 85.7 and 94.7 %. This threshold was applied to an independent validation cohort with good accuracy. Fibrosis risk scores using simple markers have moderate success at delineating obese patients with significant NAFLD-related fibrosis. Thresholds, however, need to be lowered to maximize diagnostic accuracy in this cohort.
Hosseini, Sayed-Mohsen; Mousavi, Saeid; Poursafa, Parinaz; Kelishadi, Roya
Objective This study aimed to develop and test the validity of a risk score to be used as a simple tool to identify those children at high risk of sonographic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted among 962 participants aged 6–18 years in Isfahan, Iran. They consisted of three groups of nearly equal number of normal-weight, overweight and obese individuals. Coefficients of the logistic regression models were used to assign a score value for each variable and the composite sonographic NAFLD risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. Performance of model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve procedure. Findings Data of 931 participants was included in the analysis. The sonographic findings of 16.8% of participants were compatible with NAFLD. Age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference and serum triglycerides level were diagnosed as factors associated with NAFLD. The risk score was calculated as 50 for sonographic NAFLD. Conclusion This study, to the best of our knowledge is the first of its kind in the pediatric age group, focuses on predicting sonographic NAFLD from easily-measured factors. It may suggest an association of hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype with NAFLD in the pediatric age group. PMID:23056785
Torres, Tiago; Sales, Rita; Vasconcelos, Carlos; Martins da Silva, Berta; Selores, Manuela
Severe psoriasis has been associated with increase cardiovascular mortality, due to a higher prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and premature atherosclerosis, as a consequence of its systemic inflammation. Recently, it has been estimated that severe psoriasis may confer an increased 6.2% on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease based on Framingham Risk Score, which can have practical implications in the treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as treatment guidelines account for the risk of cardiovascular disease in treatment goals. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of the attributable risk of severe psoriasis on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and its implication on the correct treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease on a real-world cohort of patients. One hundred severe psoriasis patients without psoriatic arthritis or previous cardiovascular disease were evaluated and it was found that more than half of the patients were reclassified to a higher cardiovascular risk category with important clinical implications on the correct management of their cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as a considerable proportion of patients with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and coronary heart disease equivalent risk were not being correctly managed.
Casalino, Ricardo; Grinberg, Max
Clinical facts and numerical data support interpretations of quality of life and survival in patients with valvular heart disease. Such data are useful in decision making regarding the interruption of natural history and replacement by a hemodynamic post-correction history. Interdisciplinary competence and expertise are required to maximize the necessary and possible results. However, the ideal of recommendations to achieve the highest degree of therapeutic satisfaction by patients with valvular heart disease is influenced by a set of variables, related in part to the specifications of the patient, and part to the limitations of methods. The rationale of the risk score validated for multiple markers is the addition of quantitative accuracy to the clinical assessment based on the heterogeneity of individual experience and intuition. In this context, the use of risk scores to predict postoperative mortality are useful tools, easy to apply and that gives us objective data on the patient's situation. None of the available tools (EuroSCORE, STS score and Ambler Score) used in healthcare has been validated has in our population.
Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Gheorghe, A; Udrea, G; Stoica, V
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the highest prevalence disease in the general population (GP) and it accounts for 20 million deaths worldwide each year. Its prevalence is even higher in rheumatoid arthritis. Early detection of subclinical disease is critical and the use of cardiovascular risk prediction models and calculators is widely spread. The impact of such techniques in the GP was previously studied. Despite their common background and similarities, some disagreement exists between most scores and their importance in special high-risk populations like rheumatoid arthritis (RA), having a low level of evidence. The current article aims to single out those predictive models (models) that could be most useful in the care of rheumatoid arthritis patients.
Kim, Won-Jang; Kwon, Chang Hee; Han, Seungbong; Lee, Woo Seok; Kang, Joon Won; Ahn, Jung-Min; Lee, Jong-Young; Park, Duk-Woo; Kang, Soo-Jin; Lee, Seung-Whan; Kim, Young-Hak; Lee, Cheol Whan; Park, Seong-Wook; Park, Seung-Jung
Current guidelines recommend that coronary artery calcium (CAC) screening should only be used for intermediate risk groups (Framingham risk score [FRS] of 10%-20%). The CAC distributions and coronary artery disease (CAD) prevalence in various FRS strata were determined. The benefit to lower risk populations of CAC score-based screening was also assessed. In total, 1,854 participants (aged 40-79 years) without history of CAD, stroke, or diabetes were enrolled. CAC scores of > 0, ≥ 100, and ≥ 300 were present in 33.8%, 8.2%, and 2.9% of the participants, respectively. The CAC scores rose significantly as the FRS grew more severe (P < 0.01). The total CAD prevalence was 6.1%. The occult CAD prevalence in the FRS ≤ 5%, 6%-10%, 11%-20%, and > 20% strata were 3.4%, 6.7%, 9.0%, and 11.6% (P < 0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusting, not only the intermediate and high risk groups but also the low risk (FRS 6%-10%) group had significantly increased odds ratio for occult CAD compared to the very low-risk (FRS ≤ 5%) group (1.89 [95% confidence interval, CI, 1.09-3.29] in FRS 6%-10%; 2.48 [95% CI, 1.47-4.20] in FRS 11%-20%; and 3.10 [95% CI, 1.75-5.47] in FRS > 20%; P < 0.05). In conclusion, the yield of screening for significant CAC and occult CAD is low in the very low risk population but it rises in low and intermediate risk populations.
Im, Eui; Kim, Gwang-Sil
Studies have shown sleep duration to be related to the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and hypertension. However, whether sleep duration is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and the prevalence of CVD irrespective of conventional CV-risk factor, such as diabetes mellitus, obesity, and metabolic syndrome, has not been well established for the Korean population.A total of 23,878 individuals aged 18 years or older from the 2007-2010 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. We evaluated the relationship between sleep duration and CV-event risk using the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FRS; ≥10% or ≥20%) and the prevalence of CVD.After adjusting for traditional risk factors of CVD, a short sleep duration (≤5 hours) yielded odds ratios (OR) of 1.344 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.200-1.505) for intermediate to high risk and 1.357 (95% CI, 1.140-1.614) for high risk. A long sleep duration (≥9 hours) was also associated with both intermediate to high (OR 1.142, 95% CI 1.011-1.322) and high cardiovascular FRS (OR 1.276, 95% CI 1.118-1.457).Both short and long sleep durations were related with high CVD risk, irrespective of established CVD risk, and a short sleep duration was associated with a higher prevalence of CVD than an optimal or long sleep duration.
Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) is caused by an acute myocardial infarction and is still feared as a life-threatening heart disease worldwide. In order to identify patients at high risk for CAD, previous studies have proposed various risk assessment scores for the prevention of CAD. The most commonly used risk assessment score for CAD worldwide is the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). The FRS is used for middle-aged people; hence, its appropriateness has not been demonstrated to predict the likelihood of CAD occurrence in very elderly people. This article examines the possible predictive value of FRS for CAD in very elderly people over 90 years of age. Methods Data on all patients over 90 years of age who received a cardiac catheter were collected from hospital charts from the Department of Internal Medicine, Saarland University Medical Center, and HELIOS Hospital Wuppertal, Witten/Herdecke University Medical Center, Germany, within a study period from 2004 to 2013. The FRSs and cardiovascular risk profiles of patients over 90 years of age with and without CAD after cardiac catheterization were compared. Results One hundred and seventy-five (91.15%, mean age 91.51±1.80 years, 74 females [42.29%]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87–0.95) of a total 192 of the very elderly patients were found to have CAD. Based on the results of our study, the FRS seems to provide weak predictive ability for CAD in very elderly people (P = 0.3792). Conclusion We found weak prediction power of FRS for CAD in nonagenarians. PMID:25393521
Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo
The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.
Tadrous, Mina; Mamdani, Muhammad M; Juurlink, David N; Krahn, Murray D; Lévesque, Linda E; Cadarette, Suzanne M
To examine the performance of the disease risk score (DRS) in a cohort study with evidence of policy-induced selection bias. We examined two cohorts of new users of bisphosphonates. Estimates for 1-year hip fracture rates between agents using DRS, exposure propensity scores and traditional multivariable analysis were compared. The results for the cohort with no evidence of policy-induced selection bias showed little variation across analyses (-4.1-2.0%). Analysis of the cohort with evidence of policy-induced selection bias showed greater variation (-13.5-8.1%), with the greatest difference seen with DRS analyses. Our findings suggest that caution may be warranted when using DRS methods in cohort studies with policy-induced selection bias, further research is needed.
Chen, Guo-Bo; Lee, Sang Hong; Montgomery, Grant W; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M; Gearry, Richard B; Lawrance, Ian C; Andrews, Jane M; Bampton, Peter; Mahy, Gillian; Bell, Sally; Walsh, Alissa; Connor, Susan; Sparrow, Miles; Bowdler, Lisa M; Simms, Lisa A; Krishnaprasad, Krupa; Radford-Smith, Graham L; Moser, Gerhard
Predicting risk of disease from genotypes is being increasingly proposed for a variety of diagnostic and prognostic purposes. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a large number of genome-wide significant susceptibility loci for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), two subtypes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Recent studies have demonstrated that including only loci that are significantly associated with disease in the prediction model has low predictive power and that power can substantially be improved using a polygenic approach. We performed a comprehensive analysis of risk prediction models using large case-control cohorts genotyped for 909,763 GWAS SNPs or 123,437 SNPs on the custom designed Immunochip using four prediction methods (polygenic score, best linear genomic prediction, elastic-net regularization and a Bayesian mixture model). We used the area under the curve (AUC) to assess prediction performance for discovery populations with different sample sizes and number of SNPs within cross-validation. On average, the Bayesian mixture approach had the best prediction performance. Using cross-validation we found little differences in prediction performance between GWAS and Immunochip, despite the GWAS array providing a 10 times larger effective genome-wide coverage. The prediction performance using Immunochip is largely due to the power of the initial GWAS for its marker selection and its low cost that enabled larger sample sizes. The predictive ability of the genomic risk score based on Immunochip was replicated in external data, with AUC of 0.75 for CD and 0.70 for UC. CD patients with higher risk scores demonstrated clinical characteristics typically associated with a more severe disease course including ileal location and earlier age at diagnosis. Our analyses demonstrate that the power of genomic risk prediction for IBD is mainly due to strongly associated SNPs with considerable effect sizes. Additional SNPs that are
Yousefzadeh, Gholamreza; Shokoohi, Mostafa; Najafipour, Hamid; Shadkamfarokhi, Mitra
BACKGROUND There has been a few studies about the predictability of metabolic syndrome (MetS) based on the Framingham risk score (FRS) as a tool for predicting the risk of 10-years cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Iranian population. The aim of this study was to compare the risk stratification obtained with the FRS and MetS in a cohort of the Iranian population. METHODS In this population-based study Kerman Coronary Artery Disease Risk study, Iran, MetS was diagnosed as defined by the revised National Cholesterol Education Program definition criteria (ATPIII) and the FRS was calculated using a computer program, previously reported algorithm. RESULTS Overall, the prevalence 10-years risk of CVD for patients with MetS was significantly different with those without MetS (74.3 vs. 86.4% for low-risk patients, 18.1 vs. 12.3% for intermediate-risk people, and 7.6 vs. 1.3% for high-risk individuals) (P < 0.001). The frequency of intermediate-risk and high-risk for 10-year CVD in men with MetS (39.5 and 18.3%, respectively) was considerably higher than women with MetS (3.2 and 0.1%, respectively). Using multiple logistic regression, the odds ratio of MetS in intermediate-risk and high-risk FRS group was 1.7 and 6.7, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Significant association between the presence of MetS and high risk for CVD based on FRS was revealed in both men and women indicating a good concordance between MetS and FRS in predicting the risk of CVDs. However, the odds ratio of the development of risk of cardiovascular events among women was higher than men with MetS. PMID:26405450
Zannad, Faiez; De Backer, Guy; Graham, Ian; Lorenz, Matthias; Mancia, Giuseppe; Morrow, David A; Reiner, Zeljko; Koenig, Wolfgang; Dallongeville, Jean; Macfadyen, Robert J; Ruilope, Luis M; Wilhelmsen, Lars
The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.
Diouf, Momar; Temmar, Mohamed; Renard, Cédric; Choukroun, Gabriel; Massy, Ziad A.
Background Although a variety of non-invasive methods for measuring cardiovascular (CV) risk (such as carotid intima media thickness, pulse wave velocity (PWV), coronary artery and aortic calcification scores (measured either by CT scan or X-ray) and the ankle brachial index (ABI)) have been evaluated separately in chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohorts, few studies have evaluated these methods simultaneously. Here, we looked at whether the addition of non-invasive methods to traditional risk factors (TRFs) improves prediction of the CV risk in patients at different CKD stages. Methods We performed a prospective, observational study of the relationship between the outputs of non-invasive measurement methods on one hand and mortality and CV outcomes in 143 patients at different CKD stages on the other. During the follow-up period, 44 patients died and 30 CV events were recorded. We used Cox models to calculate the relative risk for outcomes. To assess the putative clinical value of each method, we also determined the categorical net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement. Results Vascular calcification, PWV and ABI predicted all-cause mortality and CV events in univariate analyses. However, after adjustment for TRFs, only aortic and coronary artery calcification scores were found to be significant, independent variables. Moreover, the addition of coronary artery calcification scores to TRFs improved the specificity of prediction by 20%. Conclusion The addition of vascular calcification scores (especially the coronary artery calcification score) to TRFs appears to improve CV risk assessment in a CKD population. PMID:26181592
Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J.; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M.
Purpose To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. Methods We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Results Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Conclusion Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. PMID:23172692
Purpose: Because foods provide many nutrients, which may interact with each other to modify risk for multifactorial diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD), we sought to develop a composite scoring system to summarize the combined effect of multiple dietary nutrients on AMD risk. Th...
Na, Rong; Ye, Dingwei; Qi, Jun; Liu, Fang; Lin, Xiaoling; Helfand, Brian T; Brendler, Charles B; Conran, Carly; Gong, Jian; Wu, Yishuo; Gao, Xu; Chen, Yaqing; Zheng, S Lilly; Mo, Zengnan; Ding, Qiang; Sun, Yinghao; Xu, Jianfeng
Genetic risk score (GRS) based on disease risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is an informative tool that can be used to provide inherited information for specific diseases in addition to family history. However, it is still unknown whether only SNPs that are implicated in a specific racial group should be used when calculating GRSs. The objective of this study is to compare the performance of race-specific GRS and nonrace-specific GRS for predicting prostate cancer (PCa) among 1338 patients underwent prostate biopsy in Shanghai, China. A race-specific GRS was calculated with seven PCa risk-associated SNPs implicated in East Asians (GRS7), and a nonrace-specific GRS was calculated based on 76 PCa risk-associated SNPs implicated in at least one racial group (GRS76). The means of GRS7 and GRS76 were 1.19 and 1.85, respectively, in the study population. Higher GRS7 and GRS76 were independent predictors for PCa and high-grade PCa in univariate and multivariate analyses. GRS7 had a better area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) than GRS76 for discriminating PCa (0.602 vs 0.573) and high-grade PCa (0.603 vs 0.575) but did not reach statistical significance. GRS7 had a better (up to 13% at different cutoffs) positive predictive value (PPV) than GRS76. In conclusion, a race-specific GRS is more robust and has a better performance when predicting PCa in East Asian men than a GRS calculated using SNPs that are not shown to be associated with East Asians.
Pan, An; Hou, Tao; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B
Background: Currently, there are few diet quality assessment tools that are predictive of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk that do not require nutrient analysis and substantial time to administer in clinical settings. Objective: To inform the development of such a tool, we prospectively examined the association between a food-based diet quality score and risk of CAD in 3 separate large US cohort studies. Design: Between 1984 and 2012, 71,415 women (aged 43–63 y in 1984), 42,945 men (aged 40–75 y in 1986), and 93,131 younger women (aged 27–44 y in 1991) without a history of cardiovascular disease were followed up to 28 y. Diet was assessed ≤7 times by using repeated food-frequency questionnaires. We computed the Food Quality Score (FQS) for each individual based on food groups previously associated with less weight gain. A higher score represented a healthier diet. The FQS and CAD association was modeled with the Cox proportional hazard model, controlling for potential confounders. We also compared the magnitude of association with CAD for the FQS and other diet quality scores. Results: We ascertained 6817 incident total CAD events, with 4588 cases of nonfatal myocardial infarction and 2131 fatal CAD events. Comparing top to bottom deciles, pooled RRs of the FQS were 0.61 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.69; P-trend < 0.001) for total CAD. These associations were independent of established cardiovascular disease risk factors including body weight, physical activity, and smoking. The magnitude of the RR for 1 SD of the FQS and CAD was generally similar to established diet scores that require detailed nutrient analysis, including the Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010, the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension score, and the alternate Mediterranean diet score. Conclusion: A higher food-based diet quality score was associated with lower risk of CAD and was comparable with established diet scores. PMID:27281310
Carbone, Marco; Sharp, Stephen J; Flack, Steve; Paximadas, Dimitrios; Spiess, Kelly; Adgey, Carolyn; Griffiths, Laura; Lim, Reyna; Trembling, Paul; Williamson, Kate; Wareham, Nick J; Aldersley, Mark; Bathgate, Andrew; Burroughs, Andrew K; Heneghan, Michael A; Neuberger, James M; Thorburn, Douglas; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Cordell, Heather J; Alexander, Graeme J; Jones, David E J; Sandford, Richard N; Mells, George F
The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.
Albertini, Ricardo A; Ferrer, Dario G; Romagnoli, Pablo A; Tinti, María E; Amigone, José L; Capra, Raúl; Chiabrando, Gustavo A
The goal of our study was to use statistical analysis to try to associate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the observed prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis (SA) in a non-elderly adult local population. An observational cross-sectional study was carried out (143 male and 131 female) on non-elderly adults (20-59 years). CVD risk scores included Framingham Risk Scores for 10-year hard (FRS 10 H), 30-year lipid hard or CVD (FRS 30 L H or FRS 30 L CVD), 30 year-body mass index hard or CVD (FRS 30 BMI H or FRS 30 BMI CVD) and Pooled Cohort Risk Equations for either 10 years (PCE 10) or lifetime (PCE LT). The Carotid Ultrasound (CU) study was performed and the Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) score were obtained to assess SA. The Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis followed by Youden's index was used to evaluate and adjust the stratification of CVD risk scores. SA was detected in 32.4% of individuals. The risk scores that showed the biggest areas under the ROC curve were FRS 30 L (H and CVD). When the cut-off values for these CVD risk scores were adjusted, the FRS 30 L H increased the negative predictive value for the low risk group from 87.7 to 97.0% and the FRS 30 L CVD increased the positive predictive values for the high risk group from 69.7 to 85.7%. The CVD risk stratification of non-elderly adults using FRS 30 L H and FRS 30 L CVD may be a useful tool for selecting candidate patients for diagnostic imaging studies that assess their SA prevalence.
Background Renal transplant candidates are at high risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). We sought to develop a new risk score model to determine the pre-test probability of the occurrence of significant CAD in renal transplant candidates. Methods A total of 1,060 renal transplant candidates underwent a comprehensive cardiovascular risk evaluation. Patients considered at high risk of CAD (age ≥50 years, with either diabetes mellitus (DM) or cardiovascular disease (CVD)), or having noninvasive testing suggestive of CAD were referred for coronary angiography (n = 524). Significant CAD was defined by the presence of luminal stenosis ≥70%. A binary logistic regression model was built, and the resulting logistic regression coefficient B for each variable was multiplied by 10 and rounded to the next whole number. For each patient, a corresponding risk score was calculated and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed. Results The final equation for the model was risk score = (age × 0.4) + (DM × 9) + (CVD × 14) and for the probability of CAD (%) = (risk score × 2) – 23. The corresponding ROC for the accuracy of the diagnosis of CAD was 0.75 (P <0.0001) in the developmental model. Conclusions We developed a simple clinical risk score to determine the pre-test probability of significant CAD in renal transplant candidates. This model may help those directly involved in the care of patients with end-stage renal disease being considered for transplantation in an attempt to reduce the rate of cardiovascular events that presently hampers the long-term prognosis of such patients. PMID:24176034
Desai, Rishi J; Glynn, Robert J; Wang, Shirley; Gagne, Joshua J
In a case-control study, matching on a disease risk score (DRS), which includes many confounders, should theoretically result in greater precision than matching on only a few confounders; however, this has not been investigated. We simulated 1,000 hypothetical cohorts with a binary exposure, a time-to-event outcome, and 13 covariates. Each cohort comprised 2 subcohorts of 10,000 patients each: a historical subcohort and a concurrent subcohort. DRS were estimated in the historical subcohorts and applied to the concurrent subcohorts. Nested case-control studies were conducted in the concurrent subcohorts using incidence density sampling with 2 strategies-matching on age and sex, with adjustment for additional confounders, and matching on DRS-followed by conditional logistic regression for 9 outcome-exposure incidence scenarios. In all scenarios, DRS matching yielded lower average standard errors and mean squared errors than did matching on age and sex. In 6 scenarios, DRS matching also resulted in greater empirical power. DRS matching resulted in less relative bias than did matching on age and sex at lower outcome incidences but more relative bias at higher incidences. Post-hoc analysis revealed that the effect of DRS model misspecification might be more pronounced at higher outcome incidences, resulting in higher relative bias. These results suggest that DRS matching might increase the statistical efficiency of case-control studies, particularly when the outcome is rare. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: email@example.com.
Background: Few studies have examined the usefulness of genetic scores to identify subjects at increased risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Using a genetic predisposition score (GPS), integrating the additive associations of a set of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with CHD, we examined t...
Chew, Kara W; Bhattacharya, Debika; Horwich, Tamara B; Yan, Peng; McGinnis, Kathleen A; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Freiberg, Matthew S; Currier, Judith S; Butt, Adeel A
Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The recommended Pooled Cohort Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk equation for estimation of 10-year CVD risk has not been validated in HCV-infected populations. We examined the performance of the ASCVD risk score in HCV-infected persons, using the national Electronically Retrieved Cohort of HCV Infected Veterans (ERCHIVES) to derive a cohort of HCV-infected and uninfected subjects without baseline ASCVD, hepatitis B, or HIV infection, and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level<190 mg/dL. Performance of the ASCVD risk equation was assessed by Cox proportional hazard regression, C-statistics, and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The cohort included 70,490 HCV-infected and 97,766 HCV-uninfected men with mean age of 55 years, 56% white and 29% black. Incident CVD event rates were similar between the two groups (13.2 and 13.4 events/1000 person-years), with a higher incidence of coronary heart disease events in the HCV-uninfected group and of stroke events in the HCV-infected group. Adjusting for ASCVD risk score, HCV infection was associated with higher risk for an ASCVD event in the subgroup with baseline ASCVD risk ≥7.5% (HR 1.19, p<0.0001). C-statistics were poor in both the HCV-infected and uninfected groups (0.60 and 0.61, respectively). By Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the ASCVD risk equation overestimated risk amongst lower risk patients and underestimated risk amongst higher risk patients in both the HCV-infected and uninfected groups. Further investigation is needed to determine if a modified equation to accurately predict ASCVD risk in HCV-infected persons is warranted. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do; Xavier, Sergio Salles; Holanda, Marcelo Teixeira; Hasslocher-Moreno, Alejandro Marcel; Braga, José Ueleres
With the globalization of Chagas disease, unexperienced health care providers may have difficulties in identifying which patients should be examined for this condition. This study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic clinical prediction model for chronic Chagas disease. This diagnostic cohort study included consecutive volunteers suspected to have chronic Chagas disease. The clinical information was blindly compared to serological tests results, and a logistic regression model was fit and validated. The development cohort included 602 patients, and the validation cohort included 138 patients. The Chagas disease prevalence was 19.9%. Sex, age, referral from blood bank, history of living in a rural area, recognizing the kissing bug, systemic hypertension, number of siblings with Chagas disease, number of relatives with a history of stroke, ECG with low voltage, anterosuperior divisional block, pathologic Q wave, right bundle branch block, and any kind of extrasystole were included in the final model. Calibration and discrimination in the development and validation cohorts (ROC AUC 0.904 and 0.912, respectively) were good. Sensitivity and specificity analyses showed that specificity reaches at least 95% above the predicted 43% risk, while sensitivity is at least 95% below the predicted 7% risk. Net benefit decision curves favor the model across all thresholds. A nomogram and an online calculator (available at http://shiny.ipec.fiocruz.br:3838/pedrobrasil/chronic_chagas_disease_prediction/) were developed to aid in individual risk estimation.
Fujimoto, Shinichiro; Kondo, Takeshi; Yamamoto, Hideya; Yokoyama, Naoyuki; Tarutani, Yasuhiro; Takamura, Kazuhisa; Urabe, Yoji; Konno, Kumiko; Nishizaki, Yuji; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Kihara, Yasuki; Daida, Hiroyuki; Isshiki, Takaaki; Takase, Shinichi
Existing methods to calculate pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) have been established using selected high-risk patients who were referred to conventional coronary angiography. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate our new method for pre-test probability of obstructive CAD using patients who underwent coronary CT angiography (CTA), which could be applicable to a wider range of patient population. Using consecutive 4137 patients with suspected CAD who underwent coronary CTA at our institution, a multivariate logistic regression model including clinical factors as covariates calculated the pre-test probability (K-score) of obstructive CAD determined by coronary CTA. The K-score was compared with the Duke clinical score using the area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver-operating characteristic curve. External validation was performed by an independent sample of 319 patients. The final model included eight significant predictors: age, gender, coronary risk factor (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, smoking), history of cerebral infarction, and chest symptom. The AUC of the K-score was significantly greater than that of the Duke clinical score for both derivation (0.736 vs. 0.699) and validation (0.714 vs. 0.688) data sets. Among patients who underwent coronary CTA, newly developed K-score had better pre-test prediction ability of obstructive CAD compared to Duke clinical score in Japanese population.
Bansal, Dipika; Nayakallu, Ramya S R; Gudala, Kapil; Vyamasuni, Rajavikram; Bhansali, Anil
The aim of the study is to evaluate the concurrence between Framingham Risk score (FRS) and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine in identifying coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in newly detected diabetes mellitus patients and to explore the characteristics associated with the discrepancy between them. A cross-sectional study involving 489 subjects newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus was conducted. Agreement between FRS and UKPDS in classifying patients as high risk was calculated using kappa statistic. Subjects with discrepant scores between two algorithms were identified and associated variables were determined. The FRS identified 20.9% subjects (range, 17.5 to 24.7) as high-risk while UKPDS identified 21.75% (range, 18.3 to 25.5) as high-risk. Discrepancy was observed in 17.9% (range, 14.7 to 21.7) subjects. About 9.4% had high risk by UKPDS but not FRS, and 8.6% had high risk by FRS but not UKPDS. The best agreement was observed at high-risk threshold of 20% for both (κ=0.463). Analysis showed that subjects having high risk on FRS but not UKPDS were elderly females having raised systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Patients with high risk on UKPDS but not FRS were males and have high glycosylated hemoglobin. The FRS and UKPDS (threshold 20%) identified different populations as being at high risk, though the agreement between them was fairly good. The concurrence of a number of factors (e.g., male sex, low high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking) in both algorithms should be regarded as increasing the CHD risk. However, longitudinal follow-up is required to form firm conclusions.
Beijers, Rosanne J H C G; van den Borst, Bram; Newman, Anne B; Yende, Sachin; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Cassano, Patricia A; Bauer, Douglas C; Harris, Tamara B; Schols, Annemie M W J
Both respiratory and nonrespiratory hospitalizations are common and costly events in older individuals with obstructive lung disease. Prevention of any hospitalization in these individuals is essential. We aimed to construct a prediction model for all-cause hospitalization risk in community-dwelling older individuals with obstructive lung disease. We studied 268 community-dwelling individuals with obstructive lung disease (defined as FEV1/FVC
Georgousopoulou, Ekavi N.; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B.; Bougatsas, Dimitrios; Chatzigeorgiou, Michael; Kavouras, Stavros A.; Chrysohoou, Christina; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tousoulis, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Pitsavos, Christos
Background: Although physical activity (PA) has long been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), assessment of PA status has never been used as a part of CVD risk prediction tools. The aim of the present work was to examine whether the inclusion of PA status in a CVD risk model improves its predictive accuracy. Methods: Data from the 10-year follow-up (2002–2012) of the n = 2020 participants (aged 18–89 years) of the ATTICA prospective study were used to test the research hypothesis. The HellenicSCORE (that incorporates age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure levels) was calculated to estimate the baseline 10-year CVD risk; assessment of PA status was based on the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The estimated CVD risk was tested against the observed 10-year incidence (i.e., development of acute coronary syndromes, stroke, or other CVD according to the World Health Organization [WHO]-International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-10 criteria). Changes in the predictive ability of the nested CVD risk model that contained the HellenicSCORE plus PA assessment were evaluated using Harrell's C and net reclassification index. Results: Both HellenicSCORE and PA status were predictors of future CVD events (P < 0.05). However, the estimating classification bias of the model that included only the HellenicSCORE was significantly reduced when PA assessment was included (Harrel's C = 0.012, P = 0.032); this reduction remained significant even when adjusted for diabetes mellitus and dietary habits (P < 0.05). Conclusions: CVD risk scores seem to be more accurate by incorporating individuals’ PA status; thus, may be more effective tools in primary prevention by efficiently allocating CVD candidates. PMID:27076890
Ellis, Chris J; Legget, Malcolm E; Edwards, Colin; Van Pelt, Niels; Ormiston, John A; Christiansen, Jonathan; Winch, Helen; Osborne, Mark; Gamble, Greg
New Zealand (NZ) patients are recommended to undergo an 'adjusted' Framingham score to assess their cardiovascular (CVS) risk. The current (2009) NZ CVS Risk Guideline does not recommend the use of a 'calcium score' as an additional risk tool, although it has been shown to be powerfully predictive of CVS events above the predictive power of traditional Framingham risk factors. Calcium scores of >400 are very strongly predictive of a future CVS event and give direct evidence of atheromatous disease in the coronary circulation. Identification of people with advanced, premature coronary atheroma would allow early treatment of those who may benefit from more vigorous preventative strategies, including statin therapy. Using a prospectively acquired, comprehensive database we audited the first 1000 patients (7 August 2006 to 28 November 2008) to undergo a 64-slice computed tomographic (CT) cardiac angiogram (GE Light Speed), which included a scan for a 'calcium score', at the Mercy Hospital, Auckland. We excluded 58 patients who had experienced one or more of a previous myocardial infarction (MI) (n=21), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery (n=15), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (n=13) or stroke (n=21) and who therefore already had definite evidence of vascular disease and would be automatically placed in a high risk strata. We calculated each patient's Framingham risk from the original 'Anderson' equation, used by the 1996 NZ CVS risk Guideline, and the 'adjusted' Framingham 5-year CVS risk using the NZ Guidelines Group 2003/2009 recommendations, and then compared this with the observed calcium scores. The mean patient age was 56 (SD 9) years; 364 (39%) patients were female, 82% patients were Caucasian. 41% were current (4.6%) or previous (36%) cigarette smokers, 35% had a history of hypertension, 44% hyperlipidaemia and 5.6% had diabetes mellitus. The percentage of patients at 'low' 5-Year CVS risk (0-10% 5-year risk), using the 1996 and 2003
Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin
Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have been tested and found useful (ie, coronary calcium detection by computed tomography scanning, reduction in ankle-brachial index, and ultrasound scanning of the carotid arteries). This review will focus on the latter technique. Detection of thickened carotid intima-media by ultrasound has been used in many large epidemiological studies, but although it has been found to be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death, its clinical utility is limited. Detection of carotid plaque has, on the other hand, been found to be associated with a substantial risk of future events. Similarly, detection of plaque in the femoral arteries is associated with increased risk, and plaque in the femoral as well as carotid arteries predicts even higher risk. Furthermore, quantification of plaque size (plaque area), such as quantification of amount of coronary calcium on computed tomography scanning, improves predictability-the larger the plaques, the higher the risk. So far, studies using ultrasound all have been performed with 2-dimensional ultrasound imaging. Recently, 3-dimensional ultrasound imaging has been introduced, which allows for more accurate quantification of atherosclerosis. Small studies pioneering its use have indicated the utility of measuring changes in vessel-wall volume and plaque volume with respect to treatment effect. The High-Risk Plaque Initiative BioImage Study is currently investigating the predictive value of total carotid plaque volume with respect to prediction of future cardiovascular events.
Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki
The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and positive predictive value. For 3-vessel disease, the FRS had better predictive value than the other scores (area under curve, 0.74, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and negative predictive value. The risk scores (FRS, MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.
Busch, Robert; Hobbs, Brian D; Zhou, Jin; Castaldi, Peter J; McGeachie, Michael J; Hardin, Megan E; Hawrylkiewicz, Iwona; Sliwinski, Pawel; Yim, Jae-Joon; Kim, Woo Jin; Kim, Deog K; Agusti, Alvar; Make, Barry J; Crapo, James D; Calverley, Peter M; Donner, Claudio F; Lomas, David A; Wouters, Emiel F; Vestbo, Jørgen; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Bakke, Per; Gulsvik, Amund; Litonjua, Augusto A; Sparrow, David; Paré, Peter D; Levy, Robert D; Rennard, Stephen I; Beaty, Terri H; Hokanson, John; Silverman, Edwin K; Cho, Michael H
The heritability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be fully explained by recognized genetic risk factors identified as achieving genome-wide significance. In addition, the combined contribution of genetic variation to COPD risk has not been fully explored. We sought to determine: (1) whether studies of variants from previous studies of COPD or lung function in a larger sample could identify additional associated variants, particularly for severe COPD; and (2) the impact of genetic risk scores on COPD. We genotyped 3,346 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,588 cases (1,803 severe COPD) and 1,782 control subjects from four cohorts, and performed association testing with COPD, combining these results with existing genotyping data from 6,633 cases (3,497 severe COPD) and 5,704 control subjects. In addition, we developed genetic risk scores from SNPs associated with lung function and COPD and tested their discriminatory power for COPD-related measures. We identified significant associations between SNPs near PPIC (P = 1.28 × 10(-8)) and PPP4R4/SERPINA1 (P = 1.01 × 10(-8)) and severe COPD; the latter association may be driven by recognized variants in SERPINA1. Genetic risk scores based on SNPs previously associated with COPD and lung function had a modest ability to discriminate COPD (area under the curve, ∼0.6), and accounted for a mean 0.9-1.9% lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted for each additional risk allele. In a large genetic association analysis, we identified associations with severe COPD near PPIC and SERPINA1. A risk score based on combining genetic variants had modest, but significant, effects on risk of COPD and lung function.
Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua
The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806-0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768-0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738-0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692-0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese adults over 55
Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua
Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese
Artigao-Rodenas, Luis M.; Carbayo-Herencia, Julio A.; Divisón-Garrote, Juan A.; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F.; Massó-Orozco, Javier; Simarro-Rueda, Marta; Molina-Escribano, Francisca; Sanchis, Carlos; Carrión-Valero, Lucinio; López de Coca, Enrique; Caldevilla, David; López-Abril, Juan; Carratalá-Munuera, Concepción; Lopez-Pineda, Adriana
Background The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity. Methods The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated. Results The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001). Conclusions The results support the proposal for “reclassification” of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe. PMID:24039972
de Graaf, Michiel A; Broersen, Alexander; Ahmed, Wehab; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Dijkstra, Jouke; Kroft, Lucia J; Delgado, Victoria; Bax, Jeroen J; Reiber, Johan H C; Scholte, Arthur J
Coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) has important prognostic value. Additionally, quantitative CTA (QCT) provides a more detailed accurate assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD) on CTA. Potentially, a risk score incorporating all quantitative stenosis parameters allows accurate risk stratification. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine if an automatic quantitative assessment of CAD using QCT combined into a CTA risk score allows risk stratification of patients. In 300 patients, QCT was performed to automatically detect and quantify all lesions in the coronary tree. Using QCT, a novel CTA risk score was calculated based on plaque extent, severity, composition, and location on a segment basis. During follow-up, the composite end point of all-cause mortality, revascularization, and nonfatal infarction was recorded. In total, 10% of patients experienced an event during a median follow-up of 2.14 years. The CTA risk score was significantly higher in patients with an event (12.5 [interquartile range 8.6 to 16.4] vs 1.7 [interquartile range 0 to 8.4], p <0.001). In 127 patients with obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis), 27 events were recorded, all in patients with a high CTA risk score. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that a fully automatic QCT analysis of CAD is feasible and can be applied for risk stratification of patients with suspected CAD. Furthermore, a novel CTA risk score incorporating location, severity, and composition of coronary lesion was developed. This score may improve risk stratification but needs to be confirmed in larger studies.
Ganz, Peter; Heidecker, Bettina; Hveem, Kristian; Jonasson, Christian; Kato, Shintaro; Segal, Mark R; Sterling, David G; Williams, Stephen A
Precise stratification of cardiovascular risk in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) is needed to inform treatment decisions. To derive and validate a score to predict risk of cardiovascular outcomes among patients with CHD, using large-scale analysis of circulating proteins. Prospective cohort study of participants with stable CHD. For the derivation cohort (Heart and Soul study), outpatients from San Francisco were enrolled from 2000 through 2002 and followed up through November 2011 (≤11.1 years). For the validation cohort (HUNT3, a Norwegian population-based study), participants were enrolled from 2006 through 2008 and followed up through April 2012 (5.6 years). Using modified aptamers, 1130 proteins were measured in plasma samples. A 9-protein risk score was derived and validated for 4-year probability of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and all-cause death. Tests, including the C statistic, were used to assess performance of the 9-protein risk score, which was compared with the Framingham secondary event model, refit to the cohorts in this study. Within-person change in the 9-protein risk score was evaluated in the Heart and Soul study from paired samples collected 4.8 years apart. From the derivation cohort, 938 samples were analyzed, participants' median age at enrollment was 67.0 years, and 82% were men. From the validation cohort, 971 samples were analyzed, participants' median age at enrollment was 70.2 years, and 72% were men. In the derivation cohort, C statistics were 0.66 for refit Framingham, 0.74 for 9-protein, and 0.75 for refit Framingham plus 9-protein models. In the validation cohort, C statistics were 0.64 for refit Framingham, 0.70 for 9-protein, and 0.71 for refit Framingham plus 9-protein models. Adding the 9-protein risk score to the refit Framingham model increased the C statistic by 0.09 (95% CI, 0.06-0.12) in the derivation cohort, and in the validation cohort, the C statistic was increased by 0.05 (95% CI, 0
Physical activity (PA) protects against coronary heart disease (CHD) by favorably altering several CHD risk factors. In order to best understand the true nature of the relationship between PA and CHD, the impact different PA assessment methods have on the relationships must first be clarified. The p...
Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit
Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris.
Lee, Bai-Chin; Lee, Wen-Jeng; Lo, Shyh-Chyi; Hsu, Hsiu-Ching; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Chang, Yeun-Chung; Chen, Ming-Fong
The association between epicardial fat and coronary artery disease (CAD) might be affected by general adiposity. We aimed to determine whether the percentage of epicardial adipose tissue (%EAT), defined as the mass ratio of epicardial fat to body fat, could improve prediction of asymptomatic CAD. We consecutively enrolled 846 adults who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography as part of a health check-up and assessed their coronary stenosis severity and epicardial fat mass. Body fat mass was measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis. Subjects with CAD history, hyperthyroidism, pitting edema, or subjects taking diuretics or thiazolidinedione were excluded. Obstructive CAD was defined as at least one coronary artery with 50 % or greater obstruction, and severe CAD was defined as 70 % or greater obstruction. The %EAT had the maximum area under the curve for predicting the presence of CAD and superior discriminative performance to EAT and other EAT-indexed parameters. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that %EAT >0.41 % was a predictor of obstructive CAD [odds ratio 3.59 (95 % confidence interval 2.28-5.64)], and %EAT >0.47 % was a predictor of severe CAD [4.01 (2.01-7.99)] after adjustment for calcium score and Framingham risk score. This prediction was more pronounced in subjects with higher body fat percentage (≥25 % for men and ≥35 % for women), Framingham risk score (≥10 %), or calcium score (≥100). A spillover of body fat at epicardium over a critical threshold is associated with significant coronary stenosis. This association was independent of obesity, coronary calcium burden, and Framingham risk factors.
Schultheiss, Ulla T.; Teumer, Alexander; Medici, Marco; Li, Yong; Daya, Natalie; Chaker, Layal; Homuth, Georg; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Nauck, Matthias; Hofman, Albert; Selvin, Elizabeth; Völzke, Henry; Peeters, Robin P.
Context: Antibodies against thyroid peroxidase (TPOAbs) are detected in 90% of all patients with Hashimoto thyroiditis, the most common cause of hypothyroidism. Hypothyroidism is associated with a range of adverse outcomes. The current knowledge of its genetic underpinnings is limited. Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify novel genetic variants associated with TPOAb concentrations and positivity using genome-wide association data and to characterize their association with thyroid function and disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: We studied European ancestry participants of 3 independent prospective population-based studies: Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities study (n = 7524), Study of Health in Pomerania (n = 3803), and Study of Health in Pomerania-TREND (n = 887). Exposure: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), individually and combined into a genetic risk score (GRS), were examined. Main Outcomes: The main outcomes were TPOAb concentrations and positivity, thyroid hormone concentrations (TSH, free T4), and clinical thyroid diseases (subclinical and overt hypothyroidism and goiter). Results: Significantly associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (P < 5 · 10−8) mapped into 4 genomic regions not previously implicated for TPOAbs (RERE, extended HLA region) and into 5 previously described loci. A higher Genetic Risk Score (GRS) based on these 9 SNPs showed strong and graded associations with higher TPOAb, TSH, and lower free T4 concentrations (P < .001). Compared with individuals in the lowest GRS quartile, those in the highest quartile had 1.80-fold higher odds of subclinical hypothyroidism (95% confidence interval, 1.27–2.55) and 1.89-fold higher odds of overt hypothyroidism (95% confidence interval, 1.24–2.87). Conclusion: The identification of 4 novel genetic loci associated with TPOAb concentrations and positivity gives further insight into the genetic underpinnings of hypothyroidism. A GRS showed strong and graded associations
Objective: To determine the extent to which the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) increases in relation to a genetic risk score (GRS) that additively integrates the influence of high-risk alleles in nine documented single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for CHD, and to examine whether t...
Sasso, Eric H.; van der Helm-van Mil, Annette H. M.; Huizinga, Tom W. J.
Objectives. To evaluate the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score as a predictor of radiographic progression and compare it with other risk factors among patients with established RA receiving non-biologic DMARDs. Methods. For 163 patients with RA, we assessed 271 visits for MBDA score (scale of 1−100), clinical data and subsequent 1-year radiographic progression (change in Sharp−van der Heijde score [SHS]). Scatter plot and non-parametric quantile regression curves evaluated the relationship between the MBDA score and change in SHS. Changes in joint space narrowing and erosions were compared among MBDA categories with Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. The ability of the MBDA score to independently predict progression was determined by multivariate models and cross-classification of MBDA score with other risk factors. Generalized estimating equation methodology was used in model estimations to adjust for same-patient visits, always ≥1 year apart. Results. Patient characteristics included 67% female, 66%/67% RF+/anti-CCP+; mean age 55 years, MBDA score 43 (moderate = 30−44); median disease duration 4.6 years, SHS 23. Radiographic progression was infrequent for low MBDA scores. Relative risk for progression increased continuously as the MBDA score increased, reaching 17.4 for change in SHS >5 with MBDA scores ≥60. Joint space narrowing and erosion progression were associated with MBDA score. MBDA score was associated with radiographic progression after adjustments for other risk factors. MBDA score significantly differentiated risk for progression when swollen joint count, CRP or DAS28–CRP was low, and among seropositive patients. Conclusion. MBDA score enhanced the ability of conventional risk factors to predict radiographic progression in patients with established RA receiving non-biologic DMARDs. PMID:26385370
Studzin´ski, Krzysztof; Tomasik, Tomasz; Krzyszton´, Janusz; Józ´wiak, Jacek; Windak, Adam
Introduction Major clinical practice guidelines recommend assessing risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using absolute/global/total CVD risk scores. However, the effectiveness of using them in clinical practice, despite publication of numerous randomised controlled trials (RCTs), is still poorly understood. To summarise and analyse current knowledge in this field, we will carry out an overview of existing systematic reviews (SRs). The objective of this overview will be to assess the effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD compared with standard care. Methods and analysis We will include SRs and meta-analyses which take into account RCTs and quasi-RCTs investigating the effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD. SRs will be retrieved from 4 bibliographical databases and reference lists of identified reviews. Additionally, the PROSPERO database will be searched for unpublished, ongoing or recently completed SRs. 2 reviewers will assess the SRs independently for eligibility and bias. The data will be extracted to a special form. Any disagreement will be resolved by discussion. In case of lack of consensus, a third author will arbitrate. The overview of SRs will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval is not required for overview of SRs. We will summarise evidence concerning whether use of the absolute/global/total CVD risk scoring tools in primary prevention of CVD is effective and supported with scientific data or not. If we face unsatisfactory confirmation, we will highlight a need for further research and advice on how to plan such a study. We will submit the results of our study for peer-review publication in a journal indexed in the international bibliographic database of biomedical information. PMID:28274967
Studziński, Krzysztof; Tomasik, Tomasz; Krzyszton, Janusz; Jóźwiak, Jacek; Windak, Adam
Major clinical practice guidelines recommend assessing risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using absolute/global/total CVD risk scores. However, the effectiveness of using them in clinical practice, despite publication of numerous randomised controlled trials (RCTs), is still poorly understood. To summarise and analyse current knowledge in this field, we will carry out an overview of existing systematic reviews (SRs). The objective of this overview will be to assess the effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD compared with standard care. We will include SRs and meta-analyses which take into account RCTs and quasi-RCTs investigating the effect of using cardiovascular risk scoring in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD. SRs will be retrieved from 4 bibliographical databases and reference lists of identified reviews. Additionally, the PROSPERO database will be searched for unpublished, ongoing or recently completed SRs. 2 reviewers will assess the SRs independently for eligibility and bias. The data will be extracted to a special form. Any disagreement will be resolved by discussion. In case of lack of consensus, a third author will arbitrate. The overview of SRs will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Ethics approval is not required for overview of SRs. We will summarise evidence concerning whether use of the absolute/global/total CVD risk scoring tools in primary prevention of CVD is effective and supported with scientific data or not. If we face unsatisfactory confirmation, we will highlight a need for further research and advice on how to plan such a study. We will submit the results of our study for peer-review publication in a journal indexed in the international bibliographic database of biomedical information. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted
Finkenberg, Mel; And Others
The purpose of this study was to compare the coronary heart disease (CHD) probability estimates of a group of sedentary males involved in an exercise stress test program from 1968 through 1974 with those of a comparison group of sedentary males not involved in the program. The program was designed to evaluate cardiopulmonary function and improve…
Cupples, L. Adrienne; Thompson, Wesley K.; Besser, Lilah; Kukull, Walter A.; Holland, Dominic; Chen, Chi-Hua; Brewer, James B.; Karow, David S.; Kauppi, Karolina; Bonham, Luke W.; Rosen, Howard J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Dillon, William P.; Wilson, David M.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret; Haines, Jonathan L.; Farrer, Lindsay A.; Mayeux, Richard; Hardy, John; Goate, Alison M.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Andreassen, Ole A.
Background Identifying individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of utmost importance. Although genetic studies have identified AD-associated SNPs in APOE and other genes, genetic information has not been integrated into an epidemiological framework for risk prediction. Methods and findings Using genotype data from 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP Stage 1), we identified AD-associated SNPs (at p < 10−5). We then integrated these AD-associated SNPs into a Cox proportional hazard model using genotype data from a subset of 6,409 AD patients and 9,386 older controls from Phase 1 of the Alzheimer’s Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC), providing a polygenic hazard score (PHS) for each participant. By combining population-based incidence rates and the genotype-derived PHS for each individual, we derived estimates of instantaneous risk for developing AD, based on genotype and age, and tested replication in multiple independent cohorts (ADGC Phase 2, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer’s Disease Center [NIA ADC], and Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], total n = 20,680). Within the ADGC Phase 1 cohort, individuals in the highest PHS quartile developed AD at a considerably lower age and had the highest yearly AD incidence rate. Among APOE ε3/3 individuals, the PHS modified expected age of AD onset by more than 10 y between the lowest and highest deciles (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% CI 2.62–4.24, p = 1.0 × 10−22). In independent cohorts, the PHS strongly predicted empirical age of AD onset (ADGC Phase 2, r = 0.90, p = 1.1 × 10−26) and longitudinal progression from normal aging to AD (NIA ADC, Cochran–Armitage trend test, p = 1.5 × 10−10), and was associated with neuropathology (NIA ADC, Braak stage of neurofibrillary tangles, p = 3.9 × 10−6, and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease score for neuritic plaques, p = 6.8 × 10−6) and
Desikan, Rahul S; Fan, Chun Chieh; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J; Cabral, Howard J; Cupples, L Adrienne; Thompson, Wesley K; Besser, Lilah; Kukull, Walter A; Holland, Dominic; Chen, Chi-Hua; Brewer, James B; Karow, David S; Kauppi, Karolina; Witoelar, Aree; Karch, Celeste M; Bonham, Luke W; Yokoyama, Jennifer S; Rosen, Howard J; Miller, Bruce L; Dillon, William P; Wilson, David M; Hess, Christopher P; Pericak-Vance, Margaret; Haines, Jonathan L; Farrer, Lindsay A; Mayeux, Richard; Hardy, John; Goate, Alison M; Hyman, Bradley T; Schellenberg, Gerard D; McEvoy, Linda K; Andreassen, Ole A; Dale, Anders M
Identifying individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of utmost importance. Although genetic studies have identified AD-associated SNPs in APOE and other genes, genetic information has not been integrated into an epidemiological framework for risk prediction. Using genotype data from 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP Stage 1), we identified AD-associated SNPs (at p < 10-5). We then integrated these AD-associated SNPs into a Cox proportional hazard model using genotype data from a subset of 6,409 AD patients and 9,386 older controls from Phase 1 of the Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC), providing a polygenic hazard score (PHS) for each participant. By combining population-based incidence rates and the genotype-derived PHS for each individual, we derived estimates of instantaneous risk for developing AD, based on genotype and age, and tested replication in multiple independent cohorts (ADGC Phase 2, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer's Disease Center [NIA ADC], and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], total n = 20,680). Within the ADGC Phase 1 cohort, individuals in the highest PHS quartile developed AD at a considerably lower age and had the highest yearly AD incidence rate. Among APOE ε3/3 individuals, the PHS modified expected age of AD onset by more than 10 y between the lowest and highest deciles (hazard ratio 3.34, 95% CI 2.62-4.24, p = 1.0 × 10-22). In independent cohorts, the PHS strongly predicted empirical age of AD onset (ADGC Phase 2, r = 0.90, p = 1.1 × 10-26) and longitudinal progression from normal aging to AD (NIA ADC, Cochran-Armitage trend test, p = 1.5 × 10-10), and was associated with neuropathology (NIA ADC, Braak stage of neurofibrillary tangles, p = 3.9 × 10-6, and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease score for neuritic plaques, p = 6.8 × 10-6) and in vivo markers of AD neurodegeneration (ADNI, volume loss
Öztürk, Erdem; Güven, Eşref Oğuz; Başar, Halil
Objective. The cancer of the prostate risk assessment (CAPRA-S) postsurgical score predicts recurrence, metastasis, and cancer-specific survival after radical prostatectomy (RP). We evaluated the relation between CAPRA-S score and biochemical recurrence (BCR) in prostate cancer after RP in our clinic. Materials and Methods. This study was performed on 203 patients with prostate carcinoma who underwent open RP and regional lymph node dissection in our clinic between 2008 and 2013. We calculated the CAPRA-S scores including prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at diagnosis, pathology Gleason score, surgical margin, seminal vesicle invasion, extracapsular extension, and lymph node involvement. The patients were divided into 3 risk groups (low, intermediate, and high risk) according to risk scores. Results. Recurrence occurred in 17.8% of the patients (36 patients out of 203 patients) with a median of 11.7-month follow-up. The average recurrence-free survival time is 44.6 months. Surgical margin invasion and seminal vesicle invasion significantly correlated with BCR especially in high risk group (11 and 13 of 15 patients, p < 0.05, resp.). Conclusion. CAPRA-S score can be easily calculated and it is useful in clinical practice in order to timely propose adjuvant therapies after surgery. PMID:27833937
Ozen, Gulsen; Sunbul, Murat; Atagunduz, Pamir; Direskeneli, Haner; Tigen, Kursat; Inanc, Nevsun
To determine the ability of the new American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk algorithm in detecting high cardiovascular (CV) risk, RA patients identified by carotid ultrasonography (US) were compared with Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and QRisk II algorithms. SCORE, QRisk II, 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk and EULAR recommended modified versions were calculated in 216 RA patients. In sonographic evaluation, carotid intima-media thickness >0.90 mm and/or carotid plaques were used as the gold standard test for subclinical atherosclerosis and high CV risk (US+). Eleven (5.1%), 15 (6.9%) and 44 (20.4%) patients were defined as having high CV risk according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. Fifty-two (24.1%) patients were US + and of those, 8 (15.4%), 7 (13.5%) and 23 (44.2%) patients were classified as high CV risk according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. The ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk index better identified US + patients than SCORE and QRisk II (P < 0.0001). With EULAR modification, reclassification from moderate to high risk occurred only in two, five and seven patients according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. The 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk estimator was better than the SCORE and QRisk II indices in RA, but still failed to identify 55% of high risk patients. Furthermore adjustment of threshold and EULAR modification did not work well. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Malekzadeh, Reza; Poustchi, Hossein; Sharafkhah, Maryam; Ghodsi, Saeed; Malekzadeh, Fatemeh; Etemadi, Arash; Pourshams, Akram; Pharoah, Paul D.; Abnet, Christian C.; Brennan, Paul; Boffetta, Paolo; Dawsey, Sanford M.; Kamangar, Farin
Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are becoming major causes of death in developing countries. Risk scoring systems for CVD are needed to prioritize allocation of limited resources. Most of these risk score algorithms have been based on a long array of risk factors including blood markers of lipids. However, risk scoring systems that solely use office-based data, not including laboratory markers, may be advantageous. In the current analysis, we validated the office-based Framingham risk scoring system in Iran. Methods The study used data from the Golestan Cohort in North-East of Iran. The following risk factors were used in the development of the risk scoring method: sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, current smoking, and diabetes. Cardiovascular risk functions for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal CVDs were developed. Results A total of 46,674 participants free of CVD at baseline were included. Predictive value of estimated risks was examined. The resulting Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.762-0.787) in all participants, 0.772 (95% CI: 0.753-0.791) in women, and 0.763 (95% CI: 0.747-0.779) in men. AUC was higher in urban areas (0.790, 95% CI: 0.766-0.815). The predicted and observed risks of fatal CVD were similar in women. However, in men, predicted probabilities were higher than observed. Conclusion The AUC in the current study is comparable to results of previous studies while lipid profile was replaced by body mass index to develop an office-based scoring system. This scoring algorithm is capable of discriminating individuals at high risk versus low risk of fatal CVD. PMID:26011607
A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies
Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A.; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S.; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C.M.; Pencina, Michael J.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Boerwinkle, Eric
Objective Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). Methods SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. Results The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ= 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004–0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10–1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02–1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Conclusion Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. PMID:22789513
A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies.
Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Pencina, Michael J; Folsom, Aaron R; Cupples, L Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M; Boerwinkle, Eric
Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ = 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004-0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10-1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kullo, Iftikhar J; Jouni, Hayan; Austin, Erin E; Brown, Sherry-Ann; Kruisselbrink, Teresa M; Isseh, Iyad N; Haddad, Raad A; Marroush, Tariq S; Shameer, Khader; Olson, Janet E; Broeckel, Ulrich; Green, Robert C; Schaid, Daniel J; Montori, Victor M; Bailey, Kent R
Whether knowledge of genetic risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) affects health-related outcomes is unknown. We investigated whether incorporating a genetic risk score (GRS) in CHD risk estimates lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Participants (n=203, 45-65 years of age, at intermediate risk for CHD, and not on statins) were randomly assigned to receive their 10-year probability of CHD based either on a conventional risk score (CRS) or CRS + GRS ((+)GRS). Participants in the (+)GRS group were stratified as having high or average/low GRS. Risk was disclosed by a genetic counselor followed by shared decision making regarding statin therapy with a physician. We compared the primary end point of LDL-C levels at 6 months and assessed whether any differences were attributable to changes in dietary fat intake, physical activity levels, or statin use. Participants (mean age, 59.4±5 years; 48% men; mean 10-year CHD risk, 8.5±4.1%) were allocated to receive either CRS (n=100) or (+)GRS (n=103). At the end of the study period, the (+)GRS group had a lower LDL-C than the CRS group (96.5±32.7 versus 105.9±33.3 mg/dL; P=0.04). Participants with high GRS had lower LDL-C levels (92.3±32.9 mg/dL) than CRS participants (P=0.02) but not participants with low GRS (100.9±32.2 mg/dL; P=0.18). Statins were initiated more often in the (+)GRS group than in the CRS group (39% versus 22%, P<0.01). No significant differences in dietary fat intake and physical activity levels were noted. Disclosure of CHD risk estimates that incorporated genetic risk information led to lower LDL-C levels than disclosure of CHD risk based on conventional risk factors alone. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01936675. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.
Marden, Jessica R.; Mayeda, Elizabeth Rose; Walter, Stefan; Vivot, Alexandre; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Glymour, M. Maria
Evidence on whether genetic predictors of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) also predict memory decline is inconsistent and limited data are available for African ancestry populations. For 8,253 non-Hispanic white (NHW) and non-Hispanic black (NHB) Health and Retirement Study participants with memory scores measured one to eight times between 1998–2012 (average baseline age=62), we calculated weighted polygenic risk scores (AD-GRS) using the top 22 AD-associated loci, and an alternative score excluding APOE (AD-GRSexAPOE). We used generalized linear models with AD-GRS-by-age and -age2 interactions (age centered at 70) to predict memory decline. Average NHB decline was 26% faster than NHW decline (p<0.001). Among NHW, 10% higher AD-GRS predicted faster memory decline (linear β= −0.058 unit decrease over 10 years; 95% CI: −0.074, −0.043. AD-GRSexAPOE also predicted faster decline for NHW, although less strongly. Among NHB, AD-GRS predicted faster memory decline (linear β= −0.050; 95% CI: −0.106, 0.006), but AD-GRSexAPOE did not. Our non-significant estimate among NHB may reflect insufficient statistical power or a misspecified AD-GRS among NHB since an overwhelming major of GWAS studies are conducted in NHW. A polygenic score based on previously identified AD loci predicts memory loss in U.S. blacks and whites. PMID:26756387
Mitu, Ovidiu; Roca, Mihai; Floria, Mariana; Petris, Antoniu Octavian; Graur, Mariana; Mitu, Florin
The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship and the accuracy of SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project) risk correlated to multiple methods for determining subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a healthy population. This cross-sectional study included 120 completely asymptomatic subjects, with an age range 35-75 years, and randomly selected from the general population. The individuals were evaluated clinically and biochemical, and the SCORE risk was computed. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by various methods: carotid ultrasound for intima-media thickness (cIMT) and plaque detection; aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV); echocardiography - left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and aortic atheromatosis (AA); ankle-brachial index (ABI). SCORE mean value was 2.95±2.71, with 76% of subjects having SCORE <5. Sixty-four percent of all subjects have had increased subclinical CVD changes, and SCORE risk score was correlated positively with all markers, except for ABI. In the multivariate analysis, increased cIMT and aPWV were significantly associated with high value of SCORE risk (OR 4.14, 95% CI: 1.42-12.15, p=0.009; respectively OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.01-1.96, p=0.039). A positive linear relationship was observed between 3 territories of subclinical CVD (cIMT, LVMI, aPWV) and SCORE risk (p<0.0001). There was evidence of subclinical CVD in 60% of subjects with a SCORE value <5. As most subjects with a SCORE value <5 have subclinical CVD abnormalities, a more tailored subclinical CVD primary prevention program should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D; Ross, Michael; Law, Matthew; Reiss, Peter; Kirk, Ole; Smith, Colette; Wentworth, Deborah; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Fux, Christoph A; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Phillipe; Johnson, Margaret A; Ryom, Lene
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0-4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events
Anbalagan, Viknesh Prabu; Venkataraman, Vijayachandrika; Vamsi, Mamilla; Deepa, Mohan; Mohan, Viswanathan
Objective We aim to determine whether a simple Indian diabetes risk score (IDRS) is associated with individuals with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) among nondiabetic Asian Indians. Methods Nondiabetic participants (n = 409) were selected from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study. Mean age was 40 ± 11.9 years, mean body mass index was 23.2 ± 3.9 kg/m2, and 224 (54.8%) were women. The IDRS was classified as high (≥60), medium (30–50), and low (<30) risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was assessed by high-resolution β mode ultrasonography. To determine the factors associated with NAFLD, a univariate analysis was first done and a stepwise logistic regression analysis was done based on the factors associated with NAFLD. Biochemical and anthropometric measurements were obtained using standardized procedures. Results The overall prevalence of NAFLD was 24.7% (101/409 participants), and it was significantly higher among those with a high (30.4%) and medium IDRS (21%) compared with the low IDRS group (15.8%; trend chi square; p = .022). In stepwise logistic regression, IDRS was associated with NAFLD with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.78 (95% confidence interval 1.04–3.06), even after adjusting for potential confounders. Conclusions The IDRS can be used as the initial step to screen individuals at high risk of NAFLD in the community. PMID:23294790
Rizzuto, Ivana; Stavraka, Chara; Chatterjee, Jayanta; Borley, Jane; Hopkins, Thomas Glass; Gabra, Hani; Ghaem-Maghami, Sadaf; Huson, Les; Blagden, Sarah P.
Objective The aim of this study was to construct a prognostic index that predicts risk of relapse in women who have completed first-line treatment for ovarian cancer (OC). Methods A database of OC cases from 2000 to 2010 was interrogated for International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, grade and histological subtype of cancer, preoperative and posttreatment CA-125 level, presence or absence of residual disease after cytoreductive surgery and on postchemotherapy computed tomography scan, and time to progression and death. The strongest predictors of relapse were included into an algorithm, the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Relapse (ROVAR) score. Results Three hundred fifty-four cases of OC were analyzed to generate the ROVAR score. Factors selected were preoperative serum CA-125, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and grade of cancer, and presence of residual disease at posttreatment computed tomography scan. In the validation data set, the ROVAR score had a sensitivity and specificity of 94% and 61%, respectively. The concordance index for the validation data set was 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.96). The score allows patient stratification into low (<0.33), intermediate (0.34–0.67), and high (>0.67) probability of relapse. Conclusions The ROVAR score stratifies patients according to their risk of relapse following first-line treatment for OC. This can broadly facilitate the appropriate tailoring of posttreatment care and support. PMID:25647256
Beaney, Katherine E; Cooper, Jackie A; Drenos, Fotios; Humphries, Steve E
Risk prediction algorithms for coronary heart disease (CHD) are recommended for clinical use. However, their predictive ability remains modest and the inclusion of genetic risk may improve their performance. QRISK2 was used to assess CHD risk using conventional risk factors (CRFs). The performance of a 19 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) gene score (GS) for CHD including variants identified by genome-wide association study and candidate gene studies (weighted using the results from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D meta-analysis) was assessed using the second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII) of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases). To improve the GS, five SNPs with weak evidence of an association with CHD were removed and replaced with seven robustly associated SNPs - giving a 21-SNP GS. The weighted 19 SNP GS was associated with lipid traits (p<0.05) and CHD after adjustment for CRFs, (OR=1.31 per standard deviation, p=0.03). Addition of the 19 SNP GS to QRISK2 showed improved discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.68 vs. 0.70 p=0.02), a positive net reclassification index (0.07, p=0.04) compared to QRISK2 alone and maintained good calibration (p=0.17). The 21-SNP GS was also associated with CHD after adjustment for CRFs (OR=1.39 per standard deviation, 1.42×10-3), but the combined QRISK2 plus GS score was poorly calibrated (p=0.03) and showed no improvement in discrimination (p=0.55) or reclassification (p=0.10) compared to QRISK2 alone. The 19-SNP GS is robustly associated with CHD and showed potential clinical utility in the UK population.
Yadav, Rashmi; Yadav, Raj Kumar; Sarvottam, Kumar; Netam, Ritesh
The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a short-term yoga-based lifestyle intervention program in lowering Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk. This was a single-arm, pre-post interventional study including data from a historical cohort with low to moderate risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). It was conducted in a tertiary-care hospital. Participants with low (0 or 1 CVD risk factors) to moderately high risk (10-year risk between 10% and 20% and two or more CVD risk factors) were included. Participants with previously diagnosed CVD, defined as a history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, or cerebrovascular accident, were excluded from the analysis. However, those with controlled hypertension were included. Intervention included a pretested short-term yoga-based lifestyle intervention, which included asanas (physical postures), pranayama (breathing exercises), meditation, relaxation techniques, stress management, group support, nutrition awareness program, and individualized advice. The intervention was for 10 days, spread over 2 weeks. However, participants were encouraged to include it in their day-to-day life. Outcomes included changes in FRS, and estimated 10-year CVD risk from baseline to week 2. A gender-based subgroup analysis was also done, and correlation between changes in FRS and cardiovascular risk factors was evaluated. Data for 554 subjects were screened, and 386 subjects (252 females) were included in the analysis. There was a significant reduction in FRS (p < 0.001) and estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk (p < 0.001) following the short-term yoga-based intervention. There was a strong positive correlation between reduction in FRS and serum total cholesterol (r = 0.60; p < 0.001). There was a moderate positive correlation between reduction in FRS and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (r = 0.58; p < 0.001), and a weak but positive correlation between
Tybor, David J; Lichtenstein, Alice H; Dallal, Gerard E; Daniels, Stephen R; Must, Aviva
Background: Cross-sectional data indicate that central adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk, independent of total adiposity. The use of longitudinal data to investigate the relation between changes in fat distribution and the emergence of risk factors is limited. Objective: We tested the hypothesis that age-related change in waist circumference (to reflect central adiposity) during adolescence is a significant predictor of longitudinal change in cardiovascular disease risk, after adjustment for change in body mass index (BMI) z score (to reflect total adiposity) in a cohort of postmenarcheal adolescent females. We also tested whether race modified this relation. Design: We analyzed publicly available data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Growth and Health Study. Longitudinal regression models were fitted to investigate the independent effects of changes in waist circumference on cardiovascular disease risk factors. Results: Steeper age-related increases in waist circumference over time were associated with a greater increase in LDL-cholesterol concentrations, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, after adjustment for BMI z score, in white but not in black females. Change in waist circumference was not a statistically significant predictor of age-related changes in HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, insulin, and glucose concentrations, after adjustment for changes in BMI z score, in either white or black females. Conclusions: Our research suggests that monitoring waist circumference in addition to BMI z score has the potential to identify adolescents at risk of the emergence of cardiovascular disease risk factors, at least in white females. The data also suggest that race may modify the relation between fat distribution pattern and cardiovascular disease risk factors. PMID:21147855
Takahashi, Mauro Massao; de Oliveira, Erick Prado; de Carvalho, Ana Lygia Rochitti; de Souza Dantas, Lidiane Affonso; Burini, Franz Homero Paganini; Portero-McLellan, Kátia Cristina; Burini, Roberto Carlos
Coronary artery disease (CAD) is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 ± 9.4 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC), body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m2) and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m2). Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS) was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001) criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. For a sample with a BMI 28.5 ± 5.0 kg/m2 the association with lower risk (<10% CAD) were lower age (<60 years old), and plasma values of uric acid. The presence of MS within low, intermediary, and high CAD risk categories was 30.8%, 55.5%, and 69.8%, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with CAD risk score was MS and uric acid, and the protective factors were recommended intake of saturated fat and fiber and muscle mass index. Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score.
Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. Objective To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. Methods 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 ± 9.4 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC), body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m2) and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m2). Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS) was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001) criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. Results For a sample with a BMI 28.5 ± 5.0 kg/m2 the association with lower risk (<10% CAD) were lower age (<60 years old), and plasma values of uric acid. The presence of MS within low, intermediary, and high CAD risk categories was 30.8%, 55.5%, and 69.8%, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with CAD risk score was MS and uric acid, and the protective factors were recommended intake of saturated fat and fiber and muscle mass index. Conclusion Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score. PMID:21554698
Karam, Carma; Beauchet, Alain; Czernichow, Sebastien; de Roquefeuil, Florence; Bourez, Alain; Mansencal, Nicolas; Dubourg, Olivier
Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) changes over the years in an untreated population-based study. Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated. The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002) and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001). The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001) and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113). The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001). Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.
Karam, Carma; Beauchet, Alain; Czernichow, Sebastien; de Roquefeuil, Florence; Bourez, Alain; Mansencal, Nicolas; Dubourg, Olivier
Background Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) changes over the years in an untreated population-based study. Methods Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated. Results The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002) and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001). The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001) and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113). The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001). Conclusions Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population. PMID:25906186
Wang, Tong; Kong, Minyi; Chen, Renhua; Liu, Yu; Chen, Jianping; Wang, Zhiyu; Wang, Jingfeng; Huang, Hui
Our previous study showed that the patients with more metabolic risk factors had higher risk of high ankle–brachial index (ABI), but the relationship between high ABI and the risk of severe cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is still under debate. This study aims to evaluate this association in the general population. 1486 subjects of South China were recruited in the study. 61 subjects were defined as high ABI group (ABI≥1.3) and 65 subjects were randomly selected as normal ABI group (0.9
Cardiovascular disease risk prediction by the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score among HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa
Hemphill, Linda C.; Palai, Tommy; Nkele, Isaac; Bennett, Kara; Lockman, Shahin; Triant, Virginia A.
Objectives HIV-infected patients are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, general population CVD risk prediction equations that identify HIV-infected patients at elevated risk have not been widely assessed in sub-Saharan African (SSA). Methods HIV-infected adults from 30–50 years of age with documented viral suppression were enrolled into a cross-sectional study in Gaborone, Botswana. Participants were screened for CVD risk factors. Bilateral carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was measured and 10-year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease was calculated using the Pooled Cohorts Equation for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and the 2008 Framingham Risk Score (FRS) (National Cholesterol Education Program III–NCEP III). ASCVD ≥7.5%, FRS ≥10%, and cIMT≥75th percentile were considered elevated risk for CVD. Agreement in classification of participants as high-risk for CVD by cIMT and FRS or ASCVD risk score was assessed using McNemar`s Test. The optimal cIMT cut off-point that matched ASCVD predicted risk of ≥7.5% was assessed using Youden’s J index. Results Among 208 HIV-infected patients (female: 55%, mean age 38 years), 78 (38%) met criteria for ASCVD calculation versus 130 (62%) who did not meet the criteria. ASCVD classified more participants as having elevated CVD risk than FRS (14.1% versus 2.6%, McNemar’s exact test p = 0.01), while also classifying similar proportion of participants as having elevated CVD like cIMT (14.1% versus 19.2%, McNemar’s exact test p = 0.34). Youden’s J calculated the optimal cut point at the 81st percentile for cIMT to correspond to an ASCVD score ≥7.5% (sensitivity = 72.7% and specificity = 88.1% with area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic [AUC] of 0.82, 95% Mann-Whitney CI: 0.66–0.99). Conclusion While the ASCVD risk score classified more patients at elevated CVD risk than FRS, ASCVD score classified similar proportion of patients as high risk when compared with
Kwon, Sung Woo; Kim, Young Jin; Shim, Jaemin; Sung, Ji Min; Han, Mi Eun; Kang, Dong Won; Kim, Ji-Ye; Choi, Byoung Wook; Chang, Hyuk-Jae
To evaluate the prognostic outcome of cardiac computed tomography (CT) for prediction of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease (CAD) and to explore the differential prognostic values of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and coronary CT angiography. Institutional review committee approval and informed consent were obtained. In 4338 patients who underwent 64-section CT for evaluation of suspected CAD, both CAC scoring and CT angiography were concurrently performed by using standard scanning protocols. Follow-up clinical outcome data regarding composite MACEs were procured. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict MACEs. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for CAC scoring and coronary CT angiography. During the mean follow-up of 828 days ± 380, there were 105 MACEs, for an event rate of 3%. The presence of obstructive CAD at coronary CT angiography had independent prognostic value, which escalated according to the number of stenosed vessels (P < .001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, the superiority of coronary CT angiography to CAC scoring was demonstrated by a significantly greater area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.892 vs 0.810, P < .001), whereas no significant incremental value for the addition of CAC scoring to coronary CT angiography was established (AUC = 0.892 for coronary CT angiography alone vs 0.902 with addition of CAC scoring, P = .198). Coronary CT angiography is better than CAC scoring in predicting MACEs in low-risk patients suspected of having CAD. Furthermore, the current standard multisection CT protocol (coronary CT angiography combined with CAC scoring) has no incremental prognostic value compared with coronary CT angiography alone. Therefore, in terms of determining prognosis, CAC scoring may no longer need to be incorporated in the cardiac CT protocol in this population. © RSNA, 2011.
Chen, Guang-Yu; Cao, Hai-Xia; Li, Feng; Cai, Xiao-Bo; Ao, Qing-Hong; Gao, Yan; Fan, Jian-Gao
The present study aimed to explore the incidence of type 2 diabetes, and to develop a risk-scoring model for predicting diabetes among the adult health check-up population in East China. Participants from the Shanghai Baosteel Cohort (age ≥20 years) without diabetes at baseline were recruited in a 6-year follow-up study. In order to explore risk factors for diabetes, this cohort was categorized into two groups: new diabetes and no diabetes. Three models were developed by Cox regression analysis. The model accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A total of 6,542 individuals were included in the Shanghai Baosteel Cohort Study. Of them, 368 (5.6%) developed type 2 diabetes at the end of the follow-up period. Cox regression analysis found a close association between incident type 2 diabetes and several risk factors including non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases at baseline. The Shanghai Baosteel Score including advanced age (2 points), hypertriglyceridemia (2 points), obesity (2 points), non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases (2 points) and impaired fasting glucose (3 points) had a good diagnostic performance with estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.724), sensitivity (57.9%) and specificity (72.2%) at a cut-off point of >3. A risk-scoring system including non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases can help identify individuals at a high risk of diabetes in the East Chinese population.
Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Milias, George A; Pitsavos, Christos; Stefanadis, Christodoulos
Mediterranean dietary traditions have long been associated with lower mortality rates and better health status. The Mediterranean dietary pattern has become customary to be represented in the form of a pyramid, the base of which refers to foods which are suggested to be consumed most frequently and the top of the pyramid to those foods consumed rarely. Recently, an index (diet score) that estimates the adherence level to Mediterranean diet was developed and associated with cardiovascular disease risk and biomarkers. In this work we present a computer program that can easily calculate this diet score, as well as its association with cardiovascular disease risk. The application of this software to the general public might be a useful tool for the reduction of the disease burden related with nutritional habits at population level.
Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.
In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.
Sheridan, Stacey L; Crespo, Eric
Background Guidelines now recommend routine assessment of global coronary heart disease (CHD) risk scores. We performed a systematic review to assess whether global CHD risk scores result in clinical benefits or harms. Methods We searched MEDLINE (1966 through June 13, 2007) for articles relevant to our review. Using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, we included studies of any design that provided physicians with global risk scores or allowed them to calculate scores themselves, and then measured clinical benefits and/or harms. Two reviewers reviewed potentially relevant studies for inclusion and resolved disagreement by consensus. Data from each article was then abstracted into an evidence table by one reviewer and the quality of evidence was assessed independently by two reviewers. Results 11 studies met criteria for inclusion in our review. Six studies addressed clinical benefits and 5 addressed clinical harms. Six studies were rated as "fair" quality and the others were deemed "methodologically limited". Two fair quality studies showed that physician knowledge of global CHD risk is associated with increased prescription of cardiovascular drugs in high risk (but not all) patients. Two additional fair quality studies showed no effect on their primary outcomes, but one was underpowered and the other focused on prescribing of lifestyle changes, rather than drugs whose prescribing might be expected to be targeted by risk level. One of these aforementioned studies showed improved blood pressure in high-risk patients, but no improvement in the proportion of patients at high risk, perhaps due to the high proportion of participants with baseline risks significantly exceeding the risk threshold. Two fair quality studies found no evidence of harm from patient knowledge of global risk scores when they were accompanied by counseling, and optional or scheduled follow-up. Other studies were too methodologically limited to draw conclusions. Conclusion Our review
Pastori, Daniele; Loffredo, Lorenzo; Perri, Ludovica; Baratta, Francesco; Scardella, Laura; Polimeni, Licia; Pani, Arianna; Brancorsini, Monica; Albanese, Fabiana; Catasca, Elisa; Del Ben, Maria; Violi, Francesco; Angelico, Francesco
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has a high prevalence in the general population. Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is a surrogated marker of early atherosclerosis. Few data investigating the relation between FMD, NAFLD, and cardiovascular (CV) risk are available. We recruited 367 consecutive outpatients with cardiometabolic risk factors who underwent ultrasound scanning for liver steatosis and FMD. Mean age was 54.2 ± 12.2 years, and 37% were women. NAFLD was present in 281 patients (77%). Median FMD was 5.1%. FMD was significantly reduced in patients with NAFLD (p <0.001), diabetes (p = 0.001), history of coronary heart disease (p = 0.034), and metabolic syndrome (p = 0.050) and in those taking antihypertensive drugs (p = 0.022). Women disclosed greater FMD than males (p = 0.033). Moreover, FMD inversely correlated with age (Spearman rank correlation test [Rs], -0.171; p = 0.001), waist circumference (Rs, -0.127; p = 0.016), fasting blood glucose (Rs, -0.204; p <0.001), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (Rs, -0.064; p = 0.234). At multivariate regression analysis, fasting blood glucose (β, -0.148; p = 0.008), age (β, -0.158; p = 0.005), and the presence of NAFLD (β, -0.132; p = 0.016) inversely correlated with FMD, whereas female gender predicted a better FMD (β, 0.125; p = 0.022). FMD and Framingham Risk Score (FRS) were inversely correlated (Rs, -0.183; p <0.001). After dividing patients into low (FRS <10; FMD, 5.5% [3.1% to 8.9%]), intermediate (FRS 10 to 20; FMD, 4.9% [2.7% to 7.5%]), and high (FRS >20; FMD, 3.3% [1.7% to 4.5%]) risk, FMD significantly decreased across risk classes of FRS (p = 0.003). At multivariate regression analysis, both FRS (β, -0.129; p = 0.016) and NAFLD (β, -0.218; p <0.001) were variables independently associated with FMD. In conclusion, the presence of NAFLD and FRS inversely correlated with FMD.
Christiansen, Morten K; Nyegaard, Mette; Pedersen, Lisbeth N; Larsen, Sanne B; Würtz, Morten; Hjort, Jakob; Kristensen, Steen D; Jensen, Henrik K
Common genetic risk variants may contribute to the heritability of early-onset coronary artery disease (CAD). We aimed to investigate the association of a genetic risk score (GRS) with age upon CAD-onset and to test the association between the GRS, familial clustering, and CAD severity in early-onset CAD. 134 early-onset CAD patients (<40 years), 446 late-onset CAD patients (male >55 years/female >65 years), and 89 healthy controls were genotyped for 45 CAD-associated SNPs and a GRS was created. In early-onset CAD patients, family pedigrees with information on 1585 1st and 2nd degree relatives were used to calculate a stratified log-rank family score (SLFS) as a measure of familial clustering. Early-onset patients had a higher mean GRS than late-onset CAD patients (p = 0.02) and healthy controls (p < 0.0001). In the adjusted model, a GRS increase of one SD was associated with 1.2 years (95% CI 0.1-2.2) earlier onset. The GRS was not associated with the SLFS in the regression model (p = 0.41) and did not differ between SLFS tertiles (p = 0.98). The SLFS predicted the number of affected coronary vessels (OR [95% CI] per SD increase in SLFS: 2.0 [1.4-3.0]), whereas the association between the GRS and CAD severity was not statistically significant (OR [95% CI] per SD increase in GRS: 1.3 [0.9-1.9]). The GRS was increased in early-onset CAD patients, but not associated with the SLFS, suggesting that these common genetic variants are of minor importance in familial clustering of early-onset CAD. Furthermore, family pedigree analysis may predict CAD severity more precisely than common variants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Darst, Burcu F.; Koscik, Rebecca L.; Racine, Annie M.; Oh, Jennifer M.; Krause, Rachel A.; Carlsson, Cynthia M.; Zetterberg, Henrik; Blennow, Kaj; Christian, Bradley T.; Bendlin, Barbara B.; Okonkwo, Ozioma C.; Hogan, Kirk J.; Hermann, Bruce P.; Sager, Mark A.; Asthana, Sanjay; Johnson, Sterling C.; Engelman, Corinne D.
Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been used to combine the effects of variants with small effects identified by genome-wide association studies. We explore the potential for using pathway-specific PRSs as predictors of early changes in Alzheimer’s disease (AD)-related biomarkers and cognitive function. Participants were from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer’s Prevention, a longitudinal study of adults who were cognitively asymptomatic at enrollment and enriched for a parental history of AD. Using genes associated with AD in the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project’s meta-analysis, we identified clusters of genes that grouped into pathways involved in β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition and neurodegeneration: Aβ clearance, cholesterol metabolism, and immune response. Weighted pathway-specific and overall PRSs were developed and compared to APOE alone. Mixed models were used to assess whether each PRS was associated with cognition in 1,200 individuals, cerebral Aβ deposition measured using amyloid ligand (Pittsburgh compound B) positron emission imaging (PET) in 168 individuals, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Aβ deposition, neurodegeneration, and tau pathology in 111 individuals, with replication performed in an independent sample. We found that PRSs including APOE appeared to be driven by the inclusion of APOE, suggesting that the pathway-specific PRSs used here were not more predictive than an overall PRS or APOE alone. However, pathway-specific PRSs could prove to be useful as more knowledge is gained on the genetic variants involved in specific biological pathways of AD. PMID:27662287
Laughlin, Gail A.; McEvoy, Linda K.; von Mühlen, Denise; Daniels, Lori B.; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Bergstrom, Jaclyn; Cummins, Kevin; Der-Martirosian, Claudia; Jassal, Simerjot K.; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth
Objective To investigate a possible link between cardiovascular risk factors and age-related cognitive decline, the association of the 1998 Framingham Cardiac Risk Score (FCRS) with the trajectory of cognitive function test (CFT) performance over 18 years was examined in adults 50 years and older without clinical heart disease at baseline. Methods Participants were 985 men and women who had assessments of cognitive function at three to four year intervals. The association of FCRS category with CFT score trajectory was examined using mixed effect models stratified by sex and controlling for age, education, and number of repeat cognitive assessments. Results At baseline, median FCRS corresponded to a 14% risk of a CHD event within 10 years for men and a 8% risk for women; 31% of men and 6% of women were at high (>20%) risk. In longitudinal analyses, women with FCRS risk >7% had a higher rate of decline on tests of verbal fluency (p’s <.05) and long term recall (p’s <.01) compared to low risk women; modest, but significant (p’s <.05), differences in the trajectory of MMSE and Trails B scores were also apparent. FCRS category was not related to the rate of decline in CFT performance in men. Conclusions For older women, very low levels of CHD risk were associated with preservation of cognitive function over 10 years, suggesting that maintenance of cardiovascular health may slow cognitive decline. The minimal association in men, who were at higher baseline risk, may be due to selective attrition of men with greater cognitive decline. PMID:21949428
Marden, Jessica R; Mayeda, Elizabeth R; Walter, Stefan; Vivot, Alexandre; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Kawachi, Ichiro; Glymour, M Maria
Evidence on whether genetic predictors of Alzheimer disease (AD) also predict memory decline is inconsistent, and limited data are available for African ancestry populations. For 8253 non-Hispanic white (NHW) and non-Hispanic black (NHB) Health and Retirement Study participants with memory scores measured 1 to 8 times between 1998 and 2012 (average baseline age=62), we calculated weighted polygenic risk scores [AD Genetic Risk Score (AD-GRS)] using the top 22 AD-associated loci, and an alternative score excluding apolipoprotein E (APOE) (AD-GRSexAPOE). We used generalized linear models with AD-GRS-by-age and AD-GRS-by-age interactions (age centered at 70) to predict memory decline. Average NHB decline was 26% faster than NHW decline (P<0.001). Among NHW, 10% higher AD-GRS predicted faster memory decline (linear β=-0.058 unit decrease over 10 y; 95% confidence interval,-0.074 to -0.043). AD-GRSexAPOE also predicted faster decline for NHW, although less strongly. Among NHB, AD-GRS predicted faster memory decline (linear β=-0.050; 95% confidence interval, -0.106 to 0.006), but AD-GRSexAPOE did not. Our nonsignificant estimate among NHB may reflect insufficient statistical power or a misspecified AD-GRS among NHB as an overwhelming majority of genome-wide association studies are conducted in NHW. A polygenic score based on previously identified AD loci predicts memory loss in US blacks and whites.
Desgraz, Benoît; Collet, Tinh-Hai; Rodondi, Nicolas; Cornuz, Jacques; Clair, Carole
Objectives Previous studies suggest that smokers have a misperception of their 10-year cardiovascular risk. We aimed to compare 10-year cardiovascular risk self-perception and calculated risk among smokers willing to quit and assess the determinants of a possible misperception. Design Cross-sectional secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of smoking cessation. Participants 514 participants, mean age 51.1 years, 46% women, 98% Caucasian. Eligible participants were regular smokers, aged between 40 and 70 years, with a consumption of at least 10 cigarettes per day for at least a year. None of them had experienced cardiovascular disease before. Exclusion criteria comprised a history of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, carotid atherosclerosis or cardiac arrhythmia. Participants with renal or liver failure, psychiatric disorders, substance and alcohol abuse and with smoking cessation therapies were excluded. Interventions Participants were asked to estimate their 10-year cardiovascular risk using a 3-item scale corresponding to high-risk, moderate-risk and low-risk categories. We compared their risk perception with Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular Munster Study (PROCAM) scores. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models to determine characteristics of participants who underestimate their risk versus those who correctly estimate or overestimate it. Results Between 38% and 42% of smokers correctly perceived their 10-year cardiovascular risk, and 39–50% overestimated their 10-year cardiovascular risk while 12–19% underestimated it compared with their calculated 10-year cardiovascular risk depending on the score used. Underestimation of 10-year cardiovascular risk was associated with male gender (OR 8.16; CI 3.83 to 17.36), older age (OR 1.06; CI 1.02 to 1.09), and the presence of hyperlipidaemia (OR 2.71; CI 1.47 to 5.01) and diabetes mellitus
Tsuchiya, Taketsugu; Takamura, Takaaki; Soga, Yoshimitsu; Iida, Osamu; Hirano, Keisuke; Suzuki, Kenji; Yamaoka, Terutoshi; Miyashita, Yusuke; Kitayama, Michihiko; Kajinami, Koji
Nitinol stenting could bring the better outcome in endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease. However, it might be expected that recent marked advances in both device technology and operator technique had led to improved efficacy of balloon angioplasty even in this segment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the clinical impact of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease and make risk stratification clear by propensity score matching analysis. Based on the multicenter retrospective data, 2758 patients (balloon angioplasty: 729 patients and nitinol stenting: 2029 patients), those who underwent endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease, were analyzed. The propensity score matching procedure extracted a total of 572 cases per group, and the primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups after matching was significantly the same (77.2% vs 82.7% at 1 year; 62.2% vs 64.3% at 3 years; 47.8% vs 54.3% at 5 years). In multivariate Cox hazard regression analysis, significant predictors for primary patency were diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, cilostazol use, chronic total occlusion, and intra-vascular ultra-sonography use. The strategy of balloon angioplasty was not evaluated as a significant predictor for the primary patency. After risk stratification using five items (diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, no use of intra-vascular ultra-sonography, chronic total occlusion, and no use of cilostazol: the DDICC score), the estimated primary patency rates of each group (low, DDICC score 0-2; moderate, DDICC score 3; high risk, DDICC score 4-5) were 88.6%, 78.3%, and 63.5% at 1 year; 75.2%, 60.7%, and 39.8% at 3 years; and 66.0%, 47.1%, and 26.3% at 5 years (p < 0.0001). The primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups was significantly the same in each risk stratification. This study suggests that balloon angioplasty does not have inferiority to nitinol stenting but does have
Struja, Tristan; Kaeslin, Marina; Boesiger, Fabienne; Jutzi, Rebecca; Imahorn, Noemi; Kutz, Alexander; Bernasconi, Luca; Mundwiler, Esther; Mueller, Beat; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Meienberg, Fabian; Ebrahimi, Fahim; Henzen, Christoph; Fischli, Stefan; Kraenzlin, Marius; Meier, Christian; Schuetz, Philipp
First-line treatment in Graves' disease is often done with antithyroid agents (ATD), but relapse rates remain high making definite treatment necessary. Predictors for relapse risk help guiding initial treatment decisions. We aimed to externally validate the prognostic accuracy of the recently proposed Graves' Recurrent Events After Therapy (GREAT) score to predict relapse risk in Graves' disease. We retrospectively analyzed data (2004-2014) of patients with a first episode of Graves' hyperthyroidism from four Swiss endocrine outpatient clinics. Relapse of hyperthyroidism analyzed by multivariate Cox regression. Of the 741 included patients, 371 experienced a relapse (50.1%) after a mean follow-up of 25.6 months after ATD start. In univariate regression analysis, higher serum free T4, higher thyrotropin-binding inhibitor immunoglobulin (TBII), younger age and larger goiter were associated with higher relapse risk. We found a strong increase in relapse risk with more points in the GREAT score from 33.8% in patients with GREAT class I (0-1 points), 59.4% in class II (2-3 points) with a hazard ratio of 1.79 (95% CI: 1.42-2.27, P < 0.001) and 73.6% in class III (4-6 points) with a hazard ratio of 2.24 (95% CI: 1.64-3.06, P < 0.001). Based on this retrospective analysis within a large patient population from a multicenter study, the GREAT score shows good external validity and can be used for assessing the risk for relapse in Graves' disease, which influence the initial treatment decisions. © 2017 European Society of Endocrinology.
Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D.; Ross, Michael; Law, Matthew; Reiss, Peter; Kirk, Ole; Smith, Colette; Wentworth, Deborah; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Fux, Christoph A.; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Phillipe; Johnson, Margaret A.; Ryom, Lene
Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk
Matsumura, Takuro; Mitani, Yuji; Oki, Yutaro; Fujimoto, Yukari; Ohira, Mineko; Kaneko, Hiromi; Kawashima, Tsunehiro; Nishio, Masato; Ishikawa, Akira
The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) is a new prognostic indicator for nutritional status-related complications and mortality among the elderly. Here we aimed to compare 6-min walk distance (6MWD) between high and low GNRI groups for patients with COPD. We enrolled 63 elderly men with COPD. These subjects were divided into two groups based on their GNRI scores: high GNRI group (≥92 points; n = 44) and low GNRI group (n = 19); we compared 6MWD between these groups. The subjects' characteristics between the high and the low GNRI groups were similar, except for BMI and serum albumin levels. 6MWD were significantly lower in the low GNRI group (279.5 ± 112.3 m versus 211.1 ± 125.3 m; p = 0.03). The GNRI has a more close relation with exercise tolerance and may be a useful nutritional assessment scale for elderly patients with COPD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin
Objective Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. Methods 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. Results There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75–0.88). Interpretations The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies. PMID:27802296
Otsuka, Toshiaki; Kawada, Tomoyuki; Ibuki, Chikao; Kusama, Yoshiki
The present study examined the association between the radial augmentation index (AI), a marker of arterial wave reflection, and the MEGA risk prediction score (MEGA score), an indicator of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, in middle-aged men with mild to moderate hypercholesterolemia. Radial AI was measured during a company health examination in 266 men (age: 47+/-5 years) with total cholesterol levels ranging 220-270 mg/dL who were not taking antihypertensive, lipid-lowering, or antidiabetic agents. The MEGA score was calculated based on sex, age, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose level, and smoking status. The higher MEGA score indicates increased CHD risk. A MEGA score > or = 22 corresponds to a 5-year CHD risk > or = 2.5% and we defined a MEGA score > or = 22 as a high estimated CHD risk. The mean AI was 74.4+/-12.6%. A high estimated CHD risk was seen in 32 subjects (12.0%). After adjusting for height and heart rate, the AI was higher in subjects with a high estimated CHD risk (81.5+/-10.6%) than in those without (73.4+/-10.4%, p<0.001). The odds ratio for high estimated CHD risk in the highest tertile of AI was 8.14 (p=0.002) in comparison to the lowest tertile, after adjusting for multiple potential confounders which did not constitute the MEGA score. The radial AI was positively associated with the estimated risk of CHD. These results suggest the usefulness of radial AI as a risk marker for future onset of CHD in middle-aged men with mild to moderate hypercholesterolemia.
Brotons, Carlos; Moral, Irene; Soriano, Núria; Cuixart, Lluís; Osorio, Dimelza; Bottaro, David; Puig, Mireia; Joaniquet, Xavier; Marcos, Albert; Casasa, Albert
In Spain, various SCORE tables are available to estimate cardiovascular risk: tables for low-risk countries, tables calibrated for the Spanish population, and tables that include high-density lipoprotein values. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of using one or another SCORE table in clinical practice. In a cross-sectional study carried out in two primary health care centers, individuals aged 40 to 65 years in whom blood pressure and total cholesterol levels were recorded between March 2010 and March 2012 were selected. Patients with diabetes or a history of cardiovascular disease were excluded. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using SCORE for low-risk countries, SCORE with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and the calibrated SCORE. Cardiovascular risk was estimated in 3716 patients. The percentage of patients at high or very high risk was 1.24% with SCORE with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 4.73% with the low-risk SCORE, and 15.44% with the calibrated SCORE (P<.01). Treatment with lipid-lowering drugs would be recommended in 10.23% of patients using the calibrated SCORE, 3.12% of patients using the low-risk SCORE, and 0.67% of patients using SCORE with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The calibrated SCORE table classifies a larger number of patients at high or very high risk than the SCORE for low-risk countries or the SCORE with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Therefore, its use would imply treating more patients with lipid-lowering medication. Validation studies are needed to assess the most appropriate SCORE table for use in our setting. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.
Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D
Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.
Ramos, Rafel; Baena-Díez, Jose Miguel; Quesada, Miquel; Solanas, Pascual; Subirana, Isaac; Sala, Joan; Alzamora, Maite; Forès, Rosa; Masiá, Rafel; Elosua, Roberto; Grau, María; Cordón, Ferran; Pera, Guillem; Rigo, Fernando; Martí, Ruth; Ponjoan, Anna; Cerezo, Carlos; Brugada, Ramon; Marrugat, Jaume
The recommendation of screening with ankle brachial index (ABI) in asymptomatic individuals is controversial. The aims of the present study were to develop and validate a pre-screening test to select candidates for ABI measurement in the Spanish population 50-79 years old, and to compare its predictive capacity to current Inter-Society Consensus (ISC) screening criteria. Two population-based cross-sectional studies were used to develop (n = 4046) and validate (n = 3285) a regression model to predict ABI < 0.9. The validation dataset was also used to compare the model's predictive capacity to that of ISC screening criteria. The best model to predict ABI < 0.9 included age, sex, smoking, pulse pressure and diabetes. Assessment of discrimination and calibration in the validation dataset demonstrated a good fit (AUC: 0.76 [95% CI 0.73-0.79] and Hosmer-Lemeshow test: χ(2): 10.73 (df = 6), p-value = 0.097). Predictions (probability cut-off value of 4.1) presented better specificity and positive likelihood ratio than the ABI screening criteria of the ISC guidelines, and similar sensitivity. This resulted in fewer patients screened per diagnosis of ABI < 0.9 (10.6 vs. 8.75) and a lower proportion of the population aged 50-79 years candidate to ABI screening (63.3% vs. 55.0%). This model provides accurate ABI < 0.9 risk estimates for ages 50-79, with a better predictive capacity than that of ISC criteria. Its use could reduce possible harms and unnecessary work-ups of ABI screening as a risk stratification strategy in primary prevention of peripheral vascular disease. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Beaney, Katherine E.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Ullah Shahid, Saleem; Ahmed, Waqas; Qamar, Raheel; Drenos, Fotios; Crockard, Martin A.; Humphries, Steve E.
Background Numerous risk prediction algorithms based on conventional risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) are available but provide only modest discrimination. The inclusion of genetic information may improve clinical utility. Methods We tested the use of two gene scores (GS) in the prospective second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII) of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases), and Pakistani case-control studies from Islamabad/Rawalpindi (321 cases/228 controls) and Lahore (414 cases/219 controls). The 19-SNP GS included SNPs in loci identified by GWAS and candidate gene studies, while the 13-SNP GS only included SNPs in loci identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium. Results In NPHSII, the mean of both gene scores was higher in those who went on to develop CHD over 13.5 years of follow-up (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=7x10-3). In combination with the Framingham algorithm the GSs appeared to show improvement in discrimination (increase in area under the ROC curve, 19-SNP p=0.48, 13-SNP p=0.82) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI), 19-SNP p=0.28, 13-SNP p=0.42) compared to the Framingham algorithm alone, but these were not statistically significant. When considering only individuals who moved up a risk category with inclusion of the GS, the improvement in risk classification was statistically significant (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=0.04). In the Pakistani samples, risk allele frequencies were significantly lower compared to NPHSII for 13/19 SNPs. In the Islamabad study, the mean gene score was higher in cases than controls only for the 13-SNP GS (2.24 v 2.34, p=0.04). There was no association with CHD and either score in the Lahore study. Conclusion The performance of both GSs showed potential clinical utility in European men but much less utility in subjects from Pakistan, suggesting that a different set of risk loci or SNPs may be required for risk prediction in the South Asian population. PMID:26133560
Fleck, R. L.
A risk factor scoring system for early detection, possible prediction, and counseling to coronary heart disease patients is discussed. Scoring data include dynamic EKG, cholesterol levels, triglycerine content, total lipid level, total phospolipid levels, and electrophoretic patterns. Results indicate such a system is effective in identifying high risk subjects, but that the ability to predict exceeds the ability to prevent heart disease or its complications.
Fleck, R. L.
A risk factor scoring system for early detection, possible prediction, and counseling to coronary heart disease patients is discussed. Scoring data include dynamic EKG, cholesterol levels, triglycerine content, total lipid level, total phospolipid levels, and electrophoretic patterns. Results indicate such a system is effective in identifying high risk subjects, but that the ability to predict exceeds the ability to prevent heart disease or its complications.
Huang, Ya-Ping; Chen, Li-Sheng; Yen, Ming-Fang; Fann, Ching-Yuan; Chiu, Yueh-Hsia; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Pan, Shin-Liang
Objective The risk of stroke in patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) remains controversial. The purpose of this population-based propensity score-matched longitudinal follow-up study was to determine whether there is an increased risk of ischemic stroke after PD. Methods We used a logistic regression model that includes age, sex, pre-existing comorbidities and socioeconomic status as covariates to compute the propensity score. A total of 2204 patients with at least two ambulatory visits with the principal diagnosis of PD in 2001 was enrolled in the PD group. The non- PD group consisted of 2204, propensity score-matched subjects without PD. The ischemic stroke-free survival rates of the two groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Stratified Cox proportional hazard regression with patients matched on propensity score was used to estimate the effect of PD on the occurrence of ischemic stroke. Results During the three-year follow-up period, 328 subjects in the PD group and 156 subjects in the non-PD group developed ischemic stroke. The ischemic stroke-free survival rate of the PD group was significantly lower than that of the non-PD group (P<0.0001). The hazard ratio (HR) of stroke for the PD group was 2.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92 to 2.93, P<0.0001) compared to the non- PD group. Conclusions This study shows a significantly increased risk of ischemic stroke in PD patients. Further studies are required to investigate the underlying mechanism. PMID:24023710
Pandya, Ankur; Weinstein, Milton C.; Gaziano, Thomas A.
Background National and international primary CVD risk screening guidelines focus on using total CVD risk scores. Recently, we developed a non-laboratory-based CVD risk score (inputs: age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, body-mass index), which can assess risk faster and at lower costs compared to laboratory-based scores (inputs include cholesterol values). We aimed to assess the exchangeability of the non-laboratory-based risk score to four commonly used laboratory-based scores (Framingham CVD [2008, 1991 versions], and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE] for low and high risk settings) in an external validation population. Methods and Findings Analyses were based on individual-level, score-specific rankings of risk for adults in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) aged 25–74 years, without history of CVD or cancer (n = 5,999). Risk characterization agreement was based on overlap in dichotomous risk characterization (thresholds of 10-year risk >10–20%) and Spearman rank correlation. Risk discrimination was assessed using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (10-year CVD death outcome). Risk characterization agreement ranged from 91.9–95.7% and 94.2–95.1% with Spearman correlation ranges of 0.957–0.980 and 0.946–0.970 for men and women, respectively. In men, c-statistics for the non-laboratory-based, Framingham (2008, 1991), and SCORE (high, low) functions were 0.782, 0.776, 0.781, 0.785, and 0.785, with p-values for differences relative to the non-laboratory-based score of 0.44, 0.89, 0.68 and 0.65, respectively. In women, the corresponding c-statistics were 0.809, 0.834, 0.821, 0.792, and 0.792, with corresponding p-values of 0.04, 0.34, 0.11 and 0.09, respectively. Conclusions Every score discriminated risk of CVD death well, and there was high agreement in risk characterization between non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk scores, which
Abdel-Razik, Ahmed; Mousa, Nasser; Elhelaly, Rania; Tawfik, Ahmed
Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a potential lethal complication in late liver cirrhosis. There is a lack of knowledge of the clinical features and risk factors of PVT. We aimed to investigate the clinical and radiological characteristics, and biochemical markers of cirrhotic patients to determine the high-risk individuals for PVT attending our center. Of 426 cirrhotic patients, only 120 consecutive patients were included. Clinical, biochemical, immunological, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, portal vein patency, and flow velocity were measured in all patients at baseline and every 6 months thereafter. Variables that could predict the development of PVT within 1 year were identified by multiple logistic regression. Only 95 patients completed the study; PVT was found in 17 (17.9%) patients. PVT was observed mainly in the portal trunk, superior mesenteric vein, and splenic vein. Univariate analysis showed that diabetes mellitus, lower levels of hemoglobin, platelet counts, and portal vein flow velocity as well as increased MELD scores, platelet indices, portal vein diameter, and splenic thickness were associated with PVT patients than in non-PVT patients (all P<0.01). The incidence of PVT was 17.9%. PVT occurred mainly in the portal vein trunk, superior mesenteric vein, and splenic vein. Diabetes mellitus, lower levels of hemoglobin, platelet count and portal vein flow velocity as well as increased MELD score, platelet indices, portal vein diameter, and splenic thickening were associated with PVT. Splenic thickening, marked reduced of mean portal flow velocity, and diabetes mellitus may be risk factors for PVT.
Amin, Sameer T.; Morrow, David A.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M.
Background Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in‐hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. Methods and Results The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT‐TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON‐TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in‐hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C‐statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C‐statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). Conclusions This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1‐year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions. PMID:23525425
de Campos, Otávio Augusto Martins; Nazário, Nazaré Otília; de Magalhães Souza Fialho, Sônia Cristina; Fialho, Guilherme Loureiro; de Oliveira, Fernando José Savóia; de Castro, Gláucio Ricardo Werner; Pereira, Ivânio Alves
Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease that causes systemic involvement and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. To analyze the prediction index of 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event in female RA patients versus controls. Case-control study with analysis of 100 female patients matched for age and gender versus 100 patients in the control group. For the prediction of 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event, the SCORE and modified SCORE (mSCORE) risk indexes were used, as suggested by EULAR, in the subgroup with two or more of the following: duration of disease ≥10 years, RF and/or anti-CCP positivity, and extra-articular manifestations. The prevalence of analyzed comorbidities was similar in RA patients compared with the control group (p>0.05). The means of the SCORE risk index in RA patients and in the control group were 1.99 (SD: 1.89) and 1.56 (SD: 1.87) (p=0.06), respectively. The means of mSCORE index in RA patients and in the control group were 2.84 (SD=2.86) and 1.56 (SD=1.87) (p=0.001), respectively. By using the SCORE risk index, 11% of RA patients were classified as of high risk, and with the use of mSCORE risk index, 36% were at high risk (p<0.001). The SCORE risk index is similar in both groups, but with the application of the mSCORE index, we recognized that RA patients have a higher 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event, and this reinforces the importance of factors inherent to the disease not measured in the SCORE risk index, but considered in mSCORE risk index. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.
Cruchaga, Carlos; Del-Aguila, Jorge L; Saef, Benjamin; Black, Kathleen; Fernandez, Maria Victoria; Budde, John; Ibanez, Laura; Kapoor, Manav; Tosto, Giuseppe; Mayeux, Richard P; Holtzman, David M; Fagan, Anne M; Morris, John C; Bateman, Randall J; Goate, Alison M; Harari, Oscar
To determine whether the extent of overlap of the genetic architecture among the sporadic late-onset Alzheimer's Disease (sLOAD), familial late-onset AD (fLOAD), sporadic early-onset AD (sEOAD), and autosomal dominant early-onset AD (eADAD). Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed using previously identified 21 genome-wide significant loci for LOAD risk. We found that there is an overlap in the genetic architecture among sEOAD, fLOAD, and sLOAD. The highest association of the PRS and risk (odds ratio [OR] = 2.27; P = 1.29 × 10(-7)) was observed in sEOAD, followed by fLOAD (OR = 1.75; P = 1.12 × 10(-7)) and sLOAD (OR = 1.40; P = 1.21 × 10(-3)). The PRS was associated with cerebrospinal fluid ptau181-Aβ42 on eADAD (P = 4.36 × 10(-2)). Our analysis confirms that the genetic factors identified for LOAD modulate risk in sLOAD and fLOAD and also sEOAD cohorts. Specifically, our results suggest that the burden of these risk variants is associated with familial clustering and earlier onset of AD. Although these variants are not associated with risk in the eADAD, they may be modulating age at onset. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Berghaus, Roy D; Lombard, Jason E; Gardner, Ian A; Farver, Thomas B
Factor analysis was used to examine the interrelationships among 38 variables collected as part of a Johne's disease risk assessment questionnaire completed in 2002 on 815 U.S. dairy operations. Eleven factors were extracted, accounting for two-thirds of the variance encountered in the original variables. Responses to many of the risk assessment questions were closely related. Standardized scores on the 11 factors were calculated for operations providing complete information, and were evaluated as predictors in a model-based logistic regression analysis with the outcome being whether operations had observed one or more cows with clinical signs suggestive of paratuberculosis during the previous year. A logistic regression model was also used to evaluate the predictive ability of a reduced subset of approximately one-third of the original variables that was selected to represent the derived factors. The performance of both sets of predictors was comparable with respect to goodness-of-fit and predictive ability. In conclusion, the length of the current risk assessment instrument could be reduced considerably without a substantial loss of information by removing or combining questions that are strongly correlated.
Zhu, Bing; Haruyama, Yasuo; Muto, Takashi; Yamasaki, Akiko; Tarumi, Fumiko
Community-based programs are being widely adopted in the struggle to prevent cardiovascular diseases. No study has been conducted in Japan to evaluate the effects of a community-based health promotion program by using the Framingham risk score and 10-year CHD risk as outcome variables. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of a program involving 6-month intervention and 18-month follow-up using such outcomes. Participants (n = 1,983, 39.5% women, mean age 63.4 years) were selected for the study in 2008. Of these 1,983, 347 (42.4% women) subjects received the 6-month intervention. The intervention included individual counseling and group sessions, among others. After 18 months, 1,278 participants (intervention group: 238, control group: 1,040) were followed up. Changes in the Framingham risk score and 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk were evaluated. ANCOVA and multiple logistic models adjusted for baseline value, age, sex and intervention times were used. The results showed that the differences in the Framingham risk score and mean 10-year CHD risk were significant in the intervention group compared with the control group after 6-month follow-up (-0.46 and -1.12, respectively) and were also significant after 18-month follow-up (-0.39 and -0.85, respectively). The proportion of those with intermediate 10-year CHD risk (> = 10%) was significantly lower at 6 months (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.12-0.74) and at 18 months (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.19-0.92). The six-month intervention program effectively decreased estimated 10-year CHD risk and the effects were still present at 18-month follow-up. UMIN-CTR: UMIN000008163.
Yazdani, Cyrus; Hall, Scott
Results of a study evaluating the predictive validity of a fall screening tool in hospitalized patients are reported. Administrative claims data from two hospitals were analyzed to determine the discriminatory ability of the "medication fall risk score" (RxFS), a medication review fall-risk screening tool that is designed for use in conjunction with nurse-administered tools such as the Morse Fall Scale (MFS). Through analysis of data on administered medications and documented falls in a population of adults who underwent fall-risk screening at hospital admission over a 15-month period (n = 33,058), the predictive value of admission MFS scores, alone or in combination with retrospectively calculated RxFS-based risk scores, was assessed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were used to evaluate improvements in risk prediction with the addition of RxFS data to the prediction model. The area under the ROC curve for the predictive model for falls compromising both MFS and RxFS scores was computed as 0.8014, which was greater than the area under the ROC curve associated with use of the MFS alone (0.7823, p = 0.0030). Screening based on MFS scores alone had 81.25% sensitivity and 61.37% specificity. Combined use of RxFS and MFS scores resulted in 82.42% sensitivity and 66.65% specificity (NRI = 0.0587, p = 0.0003). Reclassification of fall risk based on coadministration of the MFS and the RxFS tools resulted in a modest improvement in specificity without compromising sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.
Anker, Stefan D; Gillespie, Iain A; Eckardt, Kai-Uwe; Kronenberg, Florian; Richards, Sharon; Drueke, Tilman B; Stenvinkel, Peter; Pisoni, Ronald L; Robinson, Bruce M; Marcelli, Daniele; Froissart, Marc; Floege, Jürgen
A simple clinical tool to predict cardiovascular disease risk does not exist for haemodialysis patients. The long-term coronary risk Framingham Heart Study Risk score (FRS), although used in this population, may be inadequate. Therefore, we developed separate risk-scores for cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and cardiovascular morbidity & mortality (CVMM) in a Fresenius Medical Care-based haemodialysis patient cohort (AROii). Applying a modified FRS approach, we derived and internally validated two-year risk-scores in incident European adult patients randomly assigned to a development (N=4831) or a validation (N=4796) dataset. External validation was conducted in the third Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS III) cohort. Additional discrimination comparing to the FRS was performed. The overall two-year CVM and CVMM event rates were 5.0 and 22.6 per 100 person-years respectively. Common risk predictors included increasing age, cardiovascular disease history, primary diabetic nephropathy, low blood pressure, and inflammation. The CVM score was more predictive in AROii (c-statistic 0.72) and in DOPPS III (c-statistic 0.73-0.74) than the CVMM score (c-statistic 0.66-0.67 & 0.63 respectively). The FRS was not predictive of either CVM (c-statistic 0.54) or CVMM (c-statistic 0.56) in AROii. We describe novel, easy-to-apply and interpret CV risk-scores for haemodialysis patients. Our improved cardiovascular prediction performance over traditional (FRS) scores reflected its tailored development and validation in haemodialysis populations, and the integration of non-classical cardiovascular risk factors. The lower expected versus observed CVM and CVMM risk suggests the existence of novel cardiovascular risk factors in this patient population not measured in this study. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...
Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Johannes, Richard S; Gupta, Vikas; Shorr, Andrew F
Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) often require hospitalization, may necessitate mechanical ventilation, and can be fatal. We sought to develop a simple risk score to determine its severity. We analyzed 88,074 subjects admitted with an AECOPD between 2004 and 2006. We used recursive partition to create risk classifications for in-hospital mortality. Need for mechanical ventilation served as a secondary end point. We internally validated the model via 1000 bootstrapping on half of patients and externally validated it on the remaining patients. We assessed predictive ability using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). The in-hospital mortality rate was 2%. Three variables had high discrimination of outcomes: serum urea nitrogen level greater than 25 mg/dL (to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.357); acute mental status change, and pulse greater than 109/min. For those without any of the 3 factors, age 65 years or younger further differentiated the lowest-risk group. In those with all 3 factors, the mortality rates were 13.1% (131 in 1000) and 14.6% (146 in 1000) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, compared with 0.3% (3 in 1000) in both cohorts among patients without any of the 3 factors and age 65 years or younger (P < .001). The AUROC for mortality in the 2 cohorts were 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.74) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73), respectively. For mechanical ventilation, the AUROCs were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.79) for both cohorts. A simple risk class based on clinical variables easily obtained at presentation predicts mortality and need for mechanical ventilation. It may facilitate the triage and care of patients with AECOPD.
Caster, Joseph M.; Falchook, Aaron D.; Hendrix, Laura H.; Chen, Ronald C.
Purpose: Radiation oncologists rely on available clinical information (biopsy Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen [PSA]) to determine the optimal treatment regimen for each prostate cancer patient. Existing published nomograms correlating clinical to pathologic extent of disease were based on patients treated in the 1980s and 1990s at select academic institutions. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to examine pathologic outcomes (Gleason score and cancer stage) in early prostate cancer patients based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA concentration. Methods and Materials: This analysis included 25,858 patients whose cancer was diagnosed between 2010 and 2011, with biopsy Gleason scores of 6 to 7 and clinical stage T1 to T2 disease, who underwent radical prostatectomy. In subgroups based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA level, we report the proportion of patients with pathologically advanced disease (positive surgical margin or pT3-T4 disease) or whose Gleason score was upgraded. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with pathologic outcomes. Results: For patients with biopsy Gleason score 6 cancers, 84% of those with PSA <10 ng/mL had surgical T2 disease with negative margins; this decreased to 61% in patients with PSA of 20 to 29.9 ng/mL. Gleason score upgrading was seen in 43% (PSA: <10 ng/mL) to 61% (PSA: 20-29.9 ng/mL) of biopsy Gleason 6 patients. Patients with biopsy Gleason 7 cancers had a one-third (Gleason 3 + 4; PSA: <10 ng/mL) to two-thirds (Gleason 4 + 3; PSA: 20-29.9 ng/mL) probability of having pathologically advanced disease. Gleason score upgrading was seen in 11% to 19% of patients with biopsy Gleason 4 + 3 cancers. Multivariable analysis showed that higher PSA and older age were associated with Gleason score upgrading and pathologically advanced disease. Conclusions: This is the first population-based study to examine pathologic extent of disease and pathologic Gleason score
Yang, Xiao Bo; Xu, Qing Ling; Xu, Chen Ying; Wu, Chao; Yu, Li Fen
The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of colorectal neoplasms in patients coronary artery disease (CAD) with or without a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC). In this cross-sectional study, individuals with suspected CAD in the absence of cancer-related symptoms underwent coronary angiography for the first time, and were divided into CAD and non-CAD groups. Colonoscopy was performed in individuals at high-risk tier based on their Asia-Pacific colorectal screening (APCS) score. Their waist circumference (WC), height and body weight were measured. There were 634 of 1157 individuals at a high risk of developing advanced colorectal neoplasms, 91.0% (577/634) of whom were male smokers. The proportion of CAD patients in the high-risk tier was 81.5% (517/634), while the prevalences of adenomas (32.1% vs 22.2%, P < 0.05) and advanced adenomas (14.7% vs 8.5%, P < 0.05) were significantly higher in the CAD group than in the non-CAD group. After 83 individuals with a family history of CRC were excluded, only the prevalence of adenomas was still significantly higher in the CAD group than in the non-CAD group (25.5% vs 16.0%, P < 0.01). Body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m(2) was correlated with the occurrence of adenomas (OR 2.133, 95% CI 1.219-3.730, P = 0.008) in CAD patients. Even in the absence of family history of CRC, CAD patients at a high risk of developing advanced colorectal neoplasms classified by the APCS score still showed a remarkably high prevalence of colorectal adenomas. Moreover, the association between the occurrence of adenomas and CAD was stronger in overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2)) individuals. © 2015 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.
Beaney, Katherine E; Ward, Claire E; Bappa, Dauda A S; McGale, Nadine; Davies, Anna K; Hirani, Shashivadan P; Li, KaWah; Howard, Philip; Vance, Dwaine R; Crockard, Martin A; Lamont, John V; Newman, Stanton; Humphries, Steve E
The coronary risk in diabetes (CoRDia) trial (n = 211) compares the effectiveness of usual diabetes care with a self-management intervention (SMI), with and without personalised risk information (including genetics), on clinical and behavioural outcomes. Here we present an assessment of randomisation, the cardiac risk genotyping assay, and the genetic characteristics of the recruits. Ten-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk was calculated using the UKPDS score. Genetic CHD risk was determined by genotyping 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using Randox's Cardiac Risk Prediction Array and calculating a gene score (GS). Accuracy of the array was assessed by genotyping a subset of pre-genotyped samples (n = 185). Overall, 10-year CHD risk ranged from 2-72 % but did not differ between the randomisation groups (p = 0.13). The array results were 99.8 % concordant with the pre-determined genotypes. The GS did not differ between the Caucasian participants in the CoRDia SMI plus risk group (n = 66) (p = 0.80) and a sample of UK healthy men (n = 1360). The GS was also associated with LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.05) and family history (p = 0.03) in a sample of UK healthy men (n = 1360). CHD risk is high in this group of T2D subjects. The risk array is an accurate genotyping assay, and is suitable for estimating an individual's genetic CHD risk. Trial registration This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov; registration identifier NCT01891786.
Ito, Kumie; Yoshida, Hiroshi; Yanai, Hidekatsu; Kurosawa, Hideo; Sato, Ryo; Manita, Daisuke; Hirowatari, Yuji; Tada, Norio
Cholesterol levels of non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL), which contains low-density lipoprotein (LDL), intermediate-density lipoprotein (IDL), very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) and chylomicron (CM) remnant, have been proven to perform a significant predictor of coronary heart disease (CHD) better than LDL-cholesterol regardless of triglyceride (TG) levels. The present study investigated the relevance of TG-rich lipoproteins (IDL, VLDL, CM) to Framingham risk score (FRS) predictive of 10-year CHD risk. Lipoprotein profiles (cholesterol levels of HDL, LDL, IDL, VLDL, CM) in Japanese men (n = 487) who underwent medical check-up were determined by using our developed anion-exchange high performance liquid chromatography (AEX-HPLC). Total-cholesterol (TC), TG, fasting blood sugar (FBS) and hemoglobin (Hb) A1c were measured by routine methods. The lipoprotein profiles, non-HDL-cholesterol, TC, and TG were examined on these associations with FRS. The lipid levels except for CM-cholesterol were significantly different between two groups (low FRS, < 10%; high FRS, ≥10%) (P < 0.0001), and body mass index (BMI), TC, TG, IDL-, and VLDL-cholesterol were significantly and positively correlated with FRS. Among them, the significant association of non-HDL-cholesterol to FRS was noted (r = 0.411, P < 0.0001). Multiple stepwise regression analysis shows that, in addition to non-HDL-cholesterol, IDL-cholesterol in TG-rich lipoproteins was significantly correlated with FRS in independently of BMI. These correlation results were similarly found even when the part of the study subjects (n = 348) without the drug therapy for hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and hypertension was investigated. These results suggest that IDL-cholesterol may serve as a useful marker for CHD risk in Japanese men with increased non-HDL-cholesterol. © 2013.
Manfredi, Giacomo; Pezzuto, F.; Balestrini, A.; Lo Schiavo, M.; Montera, M.C.; Pio, A.; Iannelli, M.; Gargano, D.; Bianchi, M.J.; Casale, G.; Galimberti, M.; Triggiani, M.; Piazza, O.
Basing on the current knowledge, this paper is aimed to review the core characteristics of the most relevant therapeutic agents (steroids and antihistamines), administered to prevent perioperative anaphylaxis. Moreover, the Authors propose the validation of a Global Anaphylactic Risk Score, built up by recording the individual scores related to the most relevant anaphylaxis parameters (i.e. medical history, symptoms and medication for asthma, rhinitis and urticaria etc) and by adding them on all together; the score could be used in the preoperative phase to evaluate the global anaphylactic risk and to prescribe risk-oriented premedication protocols. PMID:24251246
A comparison of the predictive validity of the combination of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and other risk scoring systems for intravenous immunoglobulin (ivig)-resistance in Kawasaki disease
Kanai, Takashi; Kawamura, Yoichi; Yoshida, Yusuke; Nonoyama, Shigeaki
Background We recently reported that the combination of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) is a novel and useful predictor of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistance in Kawasaki disease (KD). In the present study, to evaluate the effectiveness of the new risk score, we compared its predictive validity to that of previously reported risk scores. Materials and methods The laboratory records of 437 patients with KD before IVIG therapy were retrospectively analyzed, and the IVIG-responsive (n = 344) and IVIG-resistant (n = 93) patients were compared. The validity of the new score (the combination of NLR≥3.83 and PLR≥150) for predicting IVIG resistance in KD was compared to that of the Kobayashi, Egami and Sano risk scores. Results The new score and the Kobayashi score displayed high sensitivity (0.72 and 0.70 respectively) and specificity (0.67 and 0.68 respectively), while the Egami and Sano scores showed high specificity (0.71 and 0.81 respectively) but relatively low sensitivity (0.56 and 0.45 respectively). The odds ratios (ORs) for the new score, the Kobayashi score, the Egami score and the Sano score were 5.34 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.22–8.85), 4.87 (95% CI 2.96–8.01), 3.14 (95% CI 1.96–5.03) and 3.53 (95% CI 2.17–5.77) respectively. Conclusions The predictive validity of the combination of NLR≥3.83 and PLR≥150, which is a simple and convenient indicator, was equal to or higher than that of the other risk scores. This suggests that the new score could be a widely available marker for predicting IVIG resistance in KD. PMID:28542183
The prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors and the Framingham Risk Score in patients undergoing percutaneous intervention over the last 17 years by gender: time-trend analysis from the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry.
Lee, Moo-Sik; Flammer, Andreas J; Kim, Hyun-Soo; Hong, Jee-Young; Li, Jing; Lennon, Ryan J; Lerman, Amir
This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients at the Mayo Clinic. We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS) and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends. This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients at the Mayo Clinic. We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender
Park, Sung Kyun; Zhao, Zhangchen; Mukherjee, Bhramar
There is growing concern of health effects of exposure to pollutant mixtures. We initially proposed an Environmental Risk Score (ERS) as a summary measure to examine the risk of exposure to multi-pollutants in epidemiologic research considering only pollutant main effects. We expand the ERS by consideration of pollutant-pollutant interactions using modern machine learning methods. We illustrate the multi-pollutant approaches to predicting a marker of oxidative stress (gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT)), a common disease pathway linking environmental exposure and numerous health endpoints. We examined 20 metal biomarkers measured in urine or whole blood from 6 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 to 2013-2014, n = 9664). We randomly split the data evenly into training and testing sets and constructed ERS's of metal mixtures for GGT using adaptive elastic-net with main effects and pairwise interactions (AENET-I), Bayesian additive regression tree (BART), Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), and Super Learner in the training set and evaluated their performances in the testing set. We also evaluated the associations between GGT-ERS and cardiovascular endpoints. ERS based on AENET-I performed better than other approaches in terms of prediction errors in the testing set. Important metals identified in relation to GGT include cadmium (urine), dimethylarsonic acid, monomethylarsonic acid, cobalt, and barium. All ERS's showed significant associations with systolic and diastolic blood pressure and hypertension. For hypertension, one SD increase in each ERS from AENET-I, BART and SuperLearner were associated with odds ratios of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.15, 1.38), 1.17 (1.09, 1.25), and 1.30 (1.20, 1.40), respectively. ERS's showed non-significant positive associations with mortality outcomes. ERS is a useful tool for characterizing cumulative risk from pollutant mixtures, with accounting for statistical challenges such as high
Kataoka, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Noriyuki; Saeki, Keigo; Kiriyama, Takao; Ueno, Satoshi
Recently, we evaluated factors responsible for falling, including walking speed evaluated with the use of originally designed, suddenly narrowed paths, in patients with Hoehn-Yahr stage III PD. We prospectively studied the same cohort of patients with PD who were followed up for 2 years, to determine predictors of future falls. We performed clinical assessments and evaluated balance in 26 patients. A total of 19 variables including PD-related independent variables, balance investigation-related independent variables and gait independent-related variables were evaluated. The Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB) score (p = 0.002), Tinetti balance (p = 0.009), and gait velocity (p = 0.001) were higher in fallers than in non-fallers. On multiple logistic regression analysis, the FAB score was related to falling (odds ratio = 3.328, p = 0.033, 95% confidence interval = 1.104-10.03). On the FAB, the scores of 'inhibitory control' and 'sensitivity to interference' were significantly lower in fallers than in non-fallers. The use of the originally designed, suddenly narrowed path was the primary reason for demonstrating for the first time that a low FAB score is a risk factor for future falls. Calculation of the FAB score may be useful for predicting the risk of future falls. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.
BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional data indicate that central adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk, independent of total adiposity. The use of longitudinal data to investigate the relation between changes in fat distribution and the emergence of risk factors is limited. OBJECTIVE: We ...
Assessment of 2013 AHA/ACC ASCVD risk scores with behavioral characteristics of an urban cohort in India: Preliminary analysis of Noncommunicable disease Initiatives and Research at AMrita (NIRAM) study.
Menon, Vidya P; Edathadathil, Fabia; Sathyapalan, Dipu; Moni, Merlin; Don, Ann; Balachandran, Sabarish; Pushpa, Binny; Prasanna, Preetha; Sivaram, Nithu; Nair, Anupama; Vinod, Nithu; Jayaprasad, Rekha; Menon, Veena
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death and disability in India. Early and sustained exposure to behavioral risk factors leads to development of CVDs.The aim of this study was to determine the baseline risk of a "hard CVD event" in subjects attending comprehensive health clinic and assess behavioral characteristics in "at risk" population.Using WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance modified questionnaire, prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and risk factors was estimated in this cross-sectional study of 4507 subjects. Baseline cardiovascular risk was determined using Framingham risk score (FRS) and American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) algorithms. Modifiable behavior associated with high CVD risk was assessed. Among 40 to 59-year olds, ASCVD risk tool derived both a 10-year and lifetime risk score, which were used to stratify the cohort into 3 risk groups, namely, a high 10-year and high lifetime, a low 10-year and high lifetime, and a low 10-year and low lifetime risks.Dyslipidemia (30.6%), hypertension (25.5%), diabetes mellitus (20%), and obstructive airway disorders (17.6%) were most prevalent NCDs in our cohort. The ASCVD score stratified 26.1% subjects into high 10-yr and 59.5% into high lifetime risk while FRS classified 17.2% into high 10-year risk. Compared with FRS, the ASCVD risk estimator identified a larger proportion of subjects "at risk" of developing CVD. A high prevalence of alcohol use (38.4%), decreased intake of fruits and vegetables (96.2%) and low physical activity (58%) were observed in "at risk" population. Logistic regression analysis showed that in 40 to 59-year group, regular and occasional drinkers were 8.5- and 3.1-fold more likely to be in high 10-year and high lifetime ASCVD risk category than in low 10-year and low lifetime risk group. Similarly, regular drinkers and occasional drinkers were 2.1 and 1.3 times more likely to
Kang, Hye Mi
Background Several studies in Western populations have indicated that metabolic syndrome (MetS) is inferior to the Framingham risk score (FRS) in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD). However there has been no study about the predictability of MetS vs. FRS for CHD in Korea. Methods Among the 43,145 persons from the third Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2005, laboratory test and nutritional survey data from 5,271 persons were examined. Participants were also asked to recall a physician's diagnosis of CHD. Results The median age was 46 (range, 20 to 78) in men (n=2,257) and 44 (range, 20 to 78) years in women (n=3,014). Prevalence of self-reported CHD was 1.7% in men and 2.1% in women. Receiver operating characteristic curves and their respective area under the curve (AUC) were used to compare the ability of the FRS and the number of components of MetS to predict self-reported CHD in each sex. In men, AUC of FRS was significantly larger than that of MetS (0.767 [0.708 to 0.819] vs. 0.677 [0.541 to 0.713], P<0.01). In women, AUC of FRS was comparable to that of MetS (0.777 [0.728 to 0.826] vs. 0.733 [0.673 to 0.795]), and was not significant. Conclusion The data suggested that FRS was more closely associated with CHD compared to MetS in Korean men. PMID:22737664
Kang, Hye Mi; Kim, Dong-Jun
Several studies in Western populations have indicated that metabolic syndrome (MetS) is inferior to the Framingham risk score (FRS) in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD). However there has been no study about the predictability of MetS vs. FRS for CHD in Korea. Among the 43,145 persons from the third Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2005, laboratory test and nutritional survey data from 5,271 persons were examined. Participants were also asked to recall a physician's diagnosis of CHD. The median age was 46 (range, 20 to 78) in men (n=2,257) and 44 (range, 20 to 78) years in women (n=3,014). Prevalence of self-reported CHD was 1.7% in men and 2.1% in women. Receiver operating characteristic curves and their respective area under the curve (AUC) were used to compare the ability of the FRS and the number of components of MetS to predict self-reported CHD in each sex. In men, AUC of FRS was significantly larger than that of MetS (0.767 [0.708 to 0.819] vs. 0.677 [0.541 to 0.713], P<0.01). In women, AUC of FRS was comparable to that of MetS (0.777 [0.728 to 0.826] vs. 0.733 [0.673 to 0.795]), and was not significant. The data suggested that FRS was more closely associated with CHD compared to MetS in Korean men.
Stephan, Blossom C M; Tang, Eugene; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela
A key priority in dementia research is the development of tools to identify individuals at high risk of dementia. This is important to prevent or delay dementia onset and as we move towards personalized medicine. Numerous models (n > 50) for predicting dementia have been developed. These vary in the number (0 to 20+) and type (e.g. demographics, health, neuropsychological, and genetic) of predictor variables used for risk calculation, follow-up length (1-20 years) and age at screening (mid vs laterlife). Evaluation of the models shows that most have moderate-to-poor predictive accuracy. Few have been externally validated, raising questions about their generalizability outside the cohorts from which they were developed. The results highlight that if additional models are proposed the field will be overwhelmed with many competing risk models, making it difficult to reach consensus on which is best. Numerous models for predicting dementia have been proposed but are limited by a lack of external validation and evaluation of economic impact. Innovative methods and data designs may be needed to improve derivation of dementia risk scores. Having a method for predicting dementia risk could transform medical research and allow for earlier testing of intervention strategies.
The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS ...
The recent publication of a robust percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk scoring system should stimulate every interventional cardiologist to incorporate risk adjustment into their everyday practice PMID:16621880
Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto
Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889
Genetic Risk Score Modelling for Disease Progression in New-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Patients: Increased Genetic Load of Islet-Expressed and Cytokine-Regulated Candidate Genes Predicts Poorer Glycemic Control
Brorsson, Caroline A.; Nielsen, Lotte B.; Andersen, Marie Louise; Kaur, Simranjeet; Bergholdt, Regine; Hansen, Lars; Mortensen, Henrik B.; Pociot, Flemming; Størling, Joachim; Hvidoere Study Group on Childhood Diabetes
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 40 type 1 diabetes risk loci. The clinical impact of these loci on β-cell function during disease progression is unknown. We aimed at testing whether a genetic risk score could predict glycemic control and residual β-cell function in type 1 diabetes (T1D). As gene expression may represent an intermediate phenotype between genetic variation and disease, we hypothesized that genes within T1D loci which are expressed in islets and transcriptionally regulated by proinflammatory cytokines would be the best predictors of disease progression. Two-thirds of 46 GWAS candidate genes examined were expressed in human islets, and 11 of these significantly changed expression levels following exposure to proinflammatory cytokines (IL-1β + IFNγ + TNFα) for 48 h. Using the GWAS single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from each locus, we constructed a genetic risk score based on the cumulative number of risk alleles carried in children with newly diagnosed T1D. With each additional risk allele carried, HbA1c levels increased significantly within first year after diagnosis. Network and gene ontology (GO) analyses revealed that several of the 11 candidate genes have overlapping biological functions and interact in a common network. Our results may help predict disease progression in newly diagnosed children with T1D which can be exploited for optimizing treatment. PMID:26904692
Comparison of Time Trends of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Framingham Risk Score Between Patients With and Without Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Percutaneous Intervention Over the Last 17 Years: From the Mayo Clinic Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Registry.
Lee, Moo-Sik; Flammer, Andreas J; Li, Jing; Lennon, Ryan J; Delacroix, Sinny; Kim, Hyunsoo; Lerman, Amir
The objective of this study was to investigate cardiovascular disease risk factor (cvRF) profiles and compare their trends over 17 years in patients with and without acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Time trends of cvRF are different between ACS and non-ACS patients. This study was a time-trend analysis from 1994 to 2010 within the Mayo Clinic PCI registry. Outcome measures were incidence and prevalence of cvRF, including the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), at the time of admission for PCI. Age of non-ACS patients was higher than that of ACS patients, and age distribution slightly shifted toward older age in both groups (P for trend <0.001). There was no difference in FRS between the 2 groups; however, 10-year cardiovascular disease risk (%) remained higher in non-ACS than in ACS patients, decreasing over time. Diastolic blood pressure and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were higher in non-ACS patients, but total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were higher in ACS patients, with an improving trend over time. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and history of hypercholesterolemia were higher in non-ACS patients, increasing over time. Smoking did not change over time. Use of most medications increased over time in both groups. Most cvRFs and their time trends exhibited statistically significant differences between ACS and non-ACS patients, except systolic blood pressure, body mass index, and history of myocardial infarction. A new risk-factor profile assessment may be needed for stratification of PCI patients according to ACS and non-ACS status. Clinical and public-health interventions should consider different approaches to ACS and non-ACS patients. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Polovina, Snefana; Micić, Dragan; Miljić, Dragana; Milić, Nataga; Micić, Dugan; Popović, Vera
The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX score) is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. The bone mineral density (by DXA), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level, free thyroxine (fT4) level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and postmenopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 +/- 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI) 27.89 +/- 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 +/- 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 +/- 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 +/- 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 +/- 4.58 years). The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX score calculation was performed in both groups. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 +/- 1.58 vs. 4.35 +/- 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015). The FRAX score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 +/- 3.92 vs. 0.50 +/- 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022). There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (P > 0.05). The ability of the FRAX score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001) is presented by the area under the curve (AUC) plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX scores and thus greater risk for low-trauma hip fracture than euthyroid
Prescott, Jennifer; Setiawan, Veronica W.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Schumacher, Fredrick; Yu, Herbert; Delahanty, Ryan; Bernstein, Leslie; Chanock, Stephen J.; Chen, Chu; Cook, Linda S.; Friedenreich, Christine; Garcia-Closas, Monserrat; Haiman, Christopher A.; Le Marchand, Loic; Liang, Xiaolin; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Lingeng; Magliocco, Anthony M.; Olson, Sara H.; Risch, Harvey A.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ursin, Giske; Yang, Hannah P.; Kraft, Peter; De Vivo, Immaculata
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified common variants that predispose individuals to a higher body mass index (BMI), an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer. Composite genotype risk scores (GRS) based on the joint effect of published BMI risk loci were used to explore whether endometrial cancer shares a genetic background with obesity. Genotype and risk factor data were available on 3,376 endometrial cancer case and 3,867 control participants of European ancestry from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium GWAS. A BMI GRS was calculated by summing the number of BMI risk alleles at 97 independent loci. For exploratory analyses, additional GRSs were based on subsets of risk loci within putative etiologic BMI pathways. The BMI GRS was statistically significantly associated with endometrial cancer risk (P = 0.002). For every 10 BMI risk alleles a woman had a 13% increased endometrial cancer risk (95% CI: 4%, 22%). However, after adjusting for BMI, the BMI GRS was no longer associated with risk (per 10 BMI risk alleles OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.07; P = 0.78). Heterogeneity by BMI did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.06), and no effect modification was noted by age, GWAS Stage, study design or between studies (P≥0.58). In exploratory analyses, the GRS defined by variants at loci containing monogenic obesity syndrome genes was associated with reduced endometrial cancer risk independent of BMI (per BMI risk allele OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.96; P = 2.1 x 10−5). Possessing a large number of BMI risk alleles does not increase endometrial cancer risk above that conferred by excess body weight among women of European descent. Thus, the GRS based on all current established BMI loci does not provide added value independent of BMI. Future studies are required to validate the unexpected observed relation between monogenic obesity syndrome genetic variants and endometrial cancer risk. PMID:26606540
Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R
The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy.
Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E; Schierup, Mikkel H; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L
Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R(2) increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. Copyright © 2015 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J.; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K.; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Ripke, Stephan; Neale, Benjamin M.; Corvin, Aiden; Walters, James T.R.; Farh, Kai-How; Holmans, Peter A.; Lee, Phil; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Collier, David A.; Huang, Hailiang; Pers, Tune H.; Agartz, Ingrid; Agerbo, Esben; Albus, Margot; Alexander, Madeline; Amin, Farooq; Bacanu, Silviu A.; Begemann, Martin; Belliveau, Richard A.; Bene, Judit; Bergen, Sarah E.; Bevilacqua, Elizabeth; Bigdeli, Tim B.; Black, Donald W.; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buckner, Randy L.; Byerley, William; Cahn, Wiepke; Cai, Guiqing; Campion, Dominique; Cantor, Rita M.; Carr, Vaughan J.; Carrera, Noa; Catts, Stanley V.; Chambert, Kimberly D.; Chan, Raymond C.K.; Chen, Ronald Y.L.; Chen, Eric Y.H.; Cheng, Wei; Cheung, Eric F.C.; Chong, Siow Ann; Cloninger, C. Robert; Cohen, David; Cohen, Nadine; Cormican, Paul; Craddock, Nick; Crowley, James J.; Curtis, David; Davidson, Michael; Davis, Kenneth L.; Degenhardt, Franziska; Del Favero, Jurgen; DeLisi, Lynn E.; Demontis, Ditte; Dikeos, Dimitris; Dinan, Timothy; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drapeau, Elodie; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Durmishi, Naser; Eichhammer, Peter; Eriksson, Johan; Escott-Price, Valentina; Essioux, Laurent; Fanous, Ayman H.; Farrell, Martilias S.; Frank, Josef; Franke, Lude; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Friedl, Marion; Friedman, Joseph I.; Fromer, Menachem; Genovese, Giulio; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Gershon, Elliot S.; Giegling, Ina; Giusti-Rodrguez, Paola; Godard, Stephanie; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Golimbet, Vera; Gopal, Srihari; Gratten, Jacob; Grove, Jakob; de Haan, Lieuwe; Hammer, Christian; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Mark; Hansen, Thomas; Haroutunian, Vahram; Hartmann, Annette M.; Henskens, Frans A.; Herms, Stefan; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Hoffmann, Per; Hofman, Andrea; Hollegaard, Mads V.; Hougaard, David M.; Ikeda, Masashi; Joa, Inge; Julia, Antonio; Kahn, Rene S.; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Karachanak-Yankova, Sena; Karjalainen, Juha; Kavanagh, David; Keller, Matthew C.; Kelly, Brian J.; Kennedy, James L.; Khrunin, Andrey; Kim, Yunjung; Klovins, Janis; Knowles, James A.; Konte, Bettina; Kucinskas, Vaidutis; Kucinskiene, Zita Ausrele; Kuzelova-Ptackova, Hana; Kahler, Anna K.; Laurent, Claudine; Keong, Jimmy Lee Chee; Lee, S. Hong; Legge, Sophie E.; Lerer, Bernard; Li, Miaoxin; Li, Tao; Liang, Kung-Yee; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Limborska, Svetlana; Loughland, Carmel M.; Lubinski, Jan; Lnnqvist, Jouko; Macek, Milan; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Maher, Brion S.; Maier, Wolfgang; Mallet, Jacques; Marsal, Sara; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarley, Robert W.; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M.; Meier, Sandra; Meijer, Carin J.; Melegh, Bela; Melle, Ingrid; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I.; Metspalu, Andres; Michie, Patricia T.; Milani, Lili; Milanova, Vihra; Mokrab, Younes; Morris, Derek W.; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben B.; Murphy, Kieran C.; Murray, Robin M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Mller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nelis, Mari; Nenadic, Igor; Nertney, Deborah A.; Nestadt, Gerald; Nicodemus, Kristin K.; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Nisenbaum, Laura; Nordin, Annelie; O’Callaghan, Eadbhard; O’Dushlaine, Colm; O’Neill, F. Anthony; Oh, Sang-Yun; Olincy, Ann; Olsen, Line; Van Os, Jim; Pantelis, Christos; Papadimitriou, George N.; Papiol, Sergi; Parkhomenko, Elena; Pato, Michele T.; Paunio, Tiina; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Perkins, Diana O.; Pietilinen, Olli; Pimm, Jonathan; Pocklington, Andrew J.; Powell, John; Price, Alkes; Pulver, Ann E.; Purcell, Shaun M.; Quested, Digby; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Reichenberg, Abraham; Reimers, Mark A.; Richards, Alexander L.; Roffman, Joshua L.; Roussos, Panos; Ruderfer, Douglas M.; Salomaa, Veikko; Sanders, Alan R.; Schall, Ulrich; Schubert, Christian R.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schwab, Sibylle G.; Scolnick, Edward M.; Scott, Rodney J.; Seidman, Larry J.; Shi, Jianxin; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sim, Kang; Slominsky, Petr; Smoller, Jordan W.; So, Hon-Cheong; Spencer, Chris C.A.; Stahl, Eli A.; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stogmann, Elisabeth; Straub, Richard E.; Strengman, Eric; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Subramaniam, Mythily; Suvisaari, Jaana; Svrakic, Dragan M.; Szatkiewicz, Jin P.; Sderman, Erik; Thirumalai, Srinivas; Toncheva, Draga; Tooney, Paul A.; Tosato, Sarah; Veijola, Juha; Waddington, John; Walsh, Dermot; Wang, Dai; Wang, Qiang; Webb, Bradley T.; Weiser, Mark; Wildenauer, Dieter B.; Williams, Nigel M.; Williams, Stephanie; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wolen, Aaron R.; Wong, Emily H.M.; Wormley, Brandon K.; Wu, Jing Qin; Xi, Hualin Simon; Zai, Clement C.; Zheng, Xuebin; Zimprich, Fritz; Wray, Naomi R.; Stefansson, Kari; Visscher, Peter M.; Adolfsson, Rolf; Andreassen, Ole A.; Blackwood, Douglas H.R.; Bramon, Elvira; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Børglum, Anders D.; Cichon, Sven; Darvasi, Ariel; Domenici, Enrico; Ehrenreich, Hannelore; Esko, Tonu; Gejman, Pablo V.; Gill, Michael; Gurling, Hugh; Hultman, Christina M.; Iwata, Nakao; Jablensky, Assen V.; Jonsson, Erik G.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kirov, George; Knight, Jo; Lencz, Todd; Levinson, Douglas F.; Li, Qingqin S.; Liu, Jianjun; Malhotra, Anil K.; McCarroll, Steven A.; McQuillin, Andrew; Moran, Jennifer L.; Mortensen, Preben B.; Mowry, Bryan J.; Nthen, Markus M.; Ophoff, Roel A.; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Pato, Carlos N.; Petryshen, Tracey L.; Posthuma, Danielle; Rietschel, Marcella; Riley, Brien P.; Rujescu, Dan; Sham, Pak C.; Sklar, Pamela; St. Clair, David; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Wendland, Jens R.; Werge, Thomas; Daly, Mark J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; O’Donovan, Michael C.; Kraft, Peter; Hunter, David J.; Adank, Muriel; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Baglietto, Laura; Berndt, Sonja; Blomquist, Carl; Canzian, Federico; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chanock, Stephen J.; Crisponi, Laura; Czene, Kamila; Dahmen, Norbert; Silva, Isabel dos Santos; Easton, Douglas; Eliassen, A. Heather; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Gaudet, Mia M.; Gibson, Lorna; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hall, Per; Hazra, Aditi; Hein, Rebecca; Henderson, Brian E.; Hofman, Albert; Hopper, John L.; Irwanto, Astrid; Johansson, Mattias; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kibriya, Muhammad G.; Lichtner, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Liu, Jianjun; Lund, Eiliv; Makalic, Enes; Meindl, Alfons; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Muranen, Taru A.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Peeters, Petra H.; Peto, Julian; Prentice, Ross L.; Rahman, Nazneen; Sánchez, María José; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Southey, Melissa C.; Tamimi, Rulla; Travis, Ruth; Turnbull, Clare; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang, Zhaoming; Whittemore, Alice S.; Yang, Rose; Zheng, Wei; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E.; Schierup, Mikkel H.; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M.; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L.
Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R2 increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. PMID:26430803
de las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine
Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994–1995) and S4 (1999–2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000–2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany. PMID:27732641
Comprehensive coronary risk determination in primary prevention: an imaging and clinical based definition combining computed tomographic coronary artery calcium score and national cholesterol education program risk score.
Nasir, Khurram; Vasamreddy, Chandra; Blumenthal, Roger S; Rumberger, John A
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and a major cause of morbidity. Coronary heart disease (CHD) accounts for nearly half of all CVD deaths. Currently estimation of risk in primary prevention is based on the Framingham risk equations, which inputs traditional risk factors and is helpful in predicting the development of CHD in asymptomatic individuals. However many individuals suffer events in the absence of established risk factors for atherosclerosis and broad based population risk estimations may have little precision when applied to a given individual. To meet the challenge of CHD risk assessment, several tools have been developed to identify atherosclerotic disease in its preclinical stages. This paper aims to incorporate information from coronary artery calcification (CAC) scoring from a computed tomographic "heartscan" (using Electron Beam Tomography (EBT) as the validated prototype) along with current Framingham risk profiling in order to refine risk on an absolute scale by combining imaging and clinical data to affect a more comprehensive calculation of absolute risk in a given individual. For CAC scores above the 75th percentile but <90th percentile, 10 years is added to chronological age, and for CAC scores above the 90th percentile, 20 years is added to current chronological age. Among those in whom a positive CAC score is the norm such as older individuals (men> or =55 years, women> or =65 years) a CAC = 0 will result in an age point score corresponding to the age-group whose median CAC score is zero i.e., 40-44 years for men and 55-59 years for women. The utilization of CAC scores allows the inclusion of sub-clinical disease definition into the context of modifiable risk factors as well as identifies high-risk individuals requiring aggressive treatment.
Differential incremental value of ultrasound carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and cardiac calcium to predict angiographic coronary artery disease across Framingham risk score strata in the APRES multicentre study.
Gaibazzi, Nicola; Rigo, Fausto; Facchetti, Rita; Carerj, Scipione; Giannattasio, Cristina; Moreo, Antonella; Mureddu, Gian Francesco; Salvetti, Massimo; Grolla, Elisabetta; Faden, Giacomo; Cesana, Francesca; Faggiano, Pompilio
According to recent data, more accurate selection of patients undergoing coronary angiography for suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) is needed. From the Active PREvention Study multicentre prospective study, we further analyse whether carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaques (cPL), and echocardiographic cardiac calcium score (eCS) have incremental discriminatory and reclassification predictive value for CAD over clinical risk score in subjects undergoing coronary angiography, specifically depending on their low, intermediate, or high class of clinical risk. In eight centres, 445 subjects without history of prior CAD but with chest pain of recent onset and/or a positive/inconclusive stress test for ischaemia prospectively underwent clinically indicated elective coronary angiography after cardiac and carotid ultrasound assessments with measurements of cIMT, cPL, and eCS. The study population was divided into subjects at low (10%), intermediate (10-20%), and high (>20%) Framingham risk score (FRS). Ultrasound parameters were tested for their incremental value to predict CAD over FRS, in each pre-test risk category. No significant difference could be appreciated between the discrimination value of FRS and Diagnostic Imaging for Coronary Artery Disease score for the presence of CAD. eCS or cPL demonstrated significant incremental prediction over FRS, consistently in the three FRS categories (P < 0.01); this applied to both discrimination and reclassification, with the exception of high-risk subjects, in whom cPL was apparently not incremental over FRS, and eCS was only of borderline significance for better discrimination. Ultrasound eCS and cPL assessments were significant predictors of angiographic CAD in patients without prior CAD but with signs or symptoms suspect for CAD, independently and incrementally to FRS, across all pre-test risk probability strata, although in high-risk subjects, only eCS maintained an incremental value. The use of cIMT was
Kawai, Vivian K; Chung, Cecilia P; Solus, Joseph F; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C Michael
Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease that is underestimated by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). We undertook this study to test the hypothesis that the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA risk score, we identified 34 patients with high CAC (defined as ≥300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile of expected coronary artery calcium for age, sex, and ethnicity) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS, and ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. All 3 risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P < 0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the 3 scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA risk score 41%) (P = 0.223). The C statistics for the FRS, RRS, and ACC/AHA risk score predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC to a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk.
Kligman, Mark D; Dexter, David J; Omer, Shuab; Park, Adrian E
The Framingham risk score estimates 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk based on gender, age, smoking status, blood pressure, TC, HDL-C, and diabetes mellitus status. It was designed to be independent of weight, and as such it is the ideal model to estimate the impact of bariatric surgery on the change in this risk. Our study evaluates the effect of gastric bypass on the prevalence of CHD risk factors and then utilizes the Framingham risk score to estimate the postoperative reduction in 10-year CHD risk. Retrospectively, 101 consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass were reviewed. The 10-year CHD risk was calculated using historic, biometric, and laboratory data. The mean body mass index decreased from 46.9 +/- 5.8 kg/m(2) preoperatively to 28.7 +/- 4.0 kg/m(2) one year postoperatively. All physical and biochemical markers of cardiac risk improved significantly. Systolic blood pressure fell from 143 +/- 20 mmHg to 123 +/- 18 mmHg (14%) and diastolic blood pressure fell from 81 +/- 10 mmHg to 71 +/- 11 mmHg (12%). Total cholesterol declined from 202 to 165 (18%); LDL-C declined from 118 to 97 (18%); and HDL-C increased from 45 to 51 (14%). The overall 10-year CHD risk decreased from 6.7 +/- 5.5% to 3.2 +/- 3.1%, representing an absolute risk reduction of 3.3% or relative risk reduction of 52%. This risk reduction was similar in subgroups based on preoperative CHD risk or on initial BMI. Using the Framingham risk score we show that gastric bypass surgery reduces 10-year coronary risk by more than half. Additionally, to the increasing evidence of the salutary effect gastric bypass surgery has on CHD risk, we contribute assessment of 10-year risk in subjects at stable weight loss and within the Framingham model's validated parameters.
Assessing Level of Agreement for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Categorization Between Coronary Artery Calcium Score and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines and the Potential Impact on Treatment Recommendations.
Isma'eel, Hussain; Min, David; Al-Shaar, Laila; Hachamovitch, Rory; Halliburton, Sandra; Gentry, James; Griffin, Brian; Schoenhagen, Paul; Phelan, Dermot
The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cardiovascular prevention guidelines use a new pooled cohort equation (PCE) to predict 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events which form the basis of treatment recommendations. Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) has been proposed as a means to assess atherosclerotic risk. We sought to study the level of agreement in predicted ASCVD risk by CACS and PCE-calculated models and the potential impact on therapy of additional CACS testing. We studied 687 treatment naive, consecutive patients (mean age 53.5 years, 72% men) who had a CACS study at our institution. Clinical and imaging data were recorded. ASCVD risk was calculated using the published PCE-based algorithm. CACS-based risk was categorized by previously published recommendations. Risk stratification comparisons were made and level of agreement calculated. In the cohort, mean ASCVD PCE-calculated risk was 5.3 ± 5.2% and mean CACS was 80 ± 302 Agatston units (AU). Of the intermediate PCE-calculated risk (5% to <7.5%) cohort, 85% had CACS <100 AU. Of the cohort categorized as reasonable to treat per the ASCVD prevention guidelines, 40% had a CACS of 0 AU and an additional 44% had CACS >0 but <100 AU. The level of agreement between the new PCE model of ASCVD risk and demonstrable coronary artery calcium is low. CACS testing may be most beneficial in those with an intermediate risk of ASCVD (PCE-calculated risk of 5% to <7.5%) where, in approximately half of patients, CACS testing significantly refined risk assessment primarily into a very low-risk category.
Smith, Caitlin J; Saftlas, Audrey F; Spracklen, Cassandra N; Triche, Elizabeth W; Bjonnes, Andrew; Keating, Brendan; Saxena, Richa; Breheny, Patrick J; Dewan, Andrew T; Robinson, Jennifer G; Hoh, Josephine; Ryckman, Kelli K
Preeclampsia is a hypertensive complication of pregnancy characterized by novel onset of hypertension after 20 weeks gestation, accompanied by proteinuria. Epidemiological evidence suggests that genetic susceptibility exists for preeclampsia; however, whether preeclampsia is the result of underlying genetic risk for essential hypertension has yet to be investigated. Based on the hypertensive state that is characteristic of preeclampsia, we aimed to determine if established genetic risk scores (GRSs) for hypertension and blood pressure are associated with preeclampsia. Subjects consisted of 162 preeclamptic cases and 108 normotensive pregnant controls, all of Iowa residence. Subjects' DNA was extracted from buccal swab samples and genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP Array 6.0 (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA). Missing genotypes were imputed using MaCH and Minimac software. GRSs were calculated for hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) using established genetic risk loci for each outcome. Regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GRS and risk of preeclampsia. These analyses were replicated in an independent US population of 516 cases and 1,097 controls of European ancestry. GRSs for hypertension, SBP, DBP, and MAP were not significantly associated with risk for preeclampsia (P > 0.189). The results of the replication analysis also yielded nonsignificant associations. GRSs for hypertension and blood pressure are not associated with preeclampsia, suggesting that an underlying predisposition to essential hypertension is not on the causal pathway of preeclampsia. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: email@example.com.
Kepez, Alper; Niksarlıoğlu, Elif Yelda Özgün; Hazırolan, Tuncay; Hayran, Mutlu; Kocabaş, Uğur; Demir, Ahmet Uğur; Aytemir, Kudret; Tokgözoğlu, Lale; Nazlı, Nasıh
This cross-sectional observational study is designed to evaluate direct effects of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSA) on presence and extent of coronary atherosclerosis by using tomographic coronary calcification scoring on a population asymptomatic for coronary artery disease. Ninety-seven consecutive patients (49.17 ± 0.86 years) who were evaluated with sleep study for the suspicion of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome underwent tomographic coronary calcium scoring test. Cardiovascular risk factors, current medications and sleep study recordings of all patients were recorded. Patients were classified into 4 groups according to the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Linear and logistic regression analyses were used for assessment of association between variables. Coronary risk scores of patients, assessed by tomographic coronary calcium scoring, were observed to increase linearly from simple snoring group to severe OSA groups (p=0.046). When patients were classified according to their gender, AHI and parameters reflecting severity of OSA-related hypoxia were found to correlate significantly with coronary risk scores of women but not with scores of men. Linear regression analysis revealed age as the only independent associated variable with cardiovascular risk scores assessed by tomographic coronary calcification scoring (Beta coefficient: 0.27, 95% CI 0.007-0.087, p=0.018). Binary logistic regression analysis also revealed age as the only variable which independently predicted the presence of coronary calcification (OR:1.11, 95% CI 1.039-1.188, p=0.002). These results suggest that presence of OSA may contribute to coronary artery disease risk of patients in association with its severity; however, association between OSA and subclinical atherosclerosis seems to be primarily dependent on age.
Belsky, Daniel W.; Israel, Salomon
The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public-use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry. PMID:25343363
Belsky, Daniel W; Israel, Salomon
The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest-hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry.
Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L
Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.
O'Brien, Emily C; Simon, DaJuanicia N; Thomas, Laine E; Hylek, Elaine M; Gersh, Bernard J; Ansell, Jack E; Kowey, Peter R; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Chang, Paul; Fonarow, Gregg C; Pencina, Michael J; Piccini, Jonathan P; Peterson, Eric D
Therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often influenced by assessment of bleeding risk. However, existing bleeding risk scores have limitations. We sought to develop and validate a novel bleeding risk score using routinely available clinical information to predict major bleeding in a large, community-based AF population. We analysed data from Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF), a prospective registry that enrolled incident and prevalent AF patients at 176 US sites. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we identified factors independently associated with major bleeding among patients taking oral anticoagulation (OAC) over a median follow-up of 2 years (interquartile range = 1.6-2.5). We also created a numerical bedside risk score that included the five most predictive risk factors weighted according to their strength of association with major bleeding. The predictive performance of the full model, the simple five-item score, and two existing risk scores (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile INR, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly, HAS-BLED, and anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation, ATRIA) were then assessed in both the ORBIT-AF cohort and a separate clinical trial population, Rivaroxaban Once-daily oral direct factor Xa inhibition compared with vitamin K antagonism for prevention of stroke and embolism trial in atrial fibrillation (ROCKET-AF). Among 7411 ORBIT-AF patients taking OAC, the rate of major bleeding was 4.0/100 person-years. The full continuous model (12 variables) and five-factor ORBIT risk score (older age [75+ years], reduced haemoglobin/haematocrit/history of anaemia, bleeding history, insufficient kidney function, and treatment with antiplatelet) both had good ability to identify those who bled vs. not (C-index 0.69 and 0.67, respectively). These scores both had similar discrimination, but markedly better
O'Brien, Emily C.; Simon, DaJuanicia N.; Thomas, Laine E.; Hylek, Elaine M.; Gersh, Bernard J.; Ansell, Jack E.; Kowey, Peter R.; Mahaffey, Kenneth W.; Chang, Paul; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Pencina, Michael J.; Piccini, Jonathan P.; Peterson, Eric D.
Background Therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often influenced by assessment of bleeding risk. However, existing bleeding risk scores have limitations. Objectives We sought to develop and validate a novel bleeding risk score using routinely available clinical information to predict major bleeding in a large, community-based AF population. Methods We analysed data from Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF), a prospective registry that enrolled incident and prevalent AF patients at 176 US sites. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we identified factors independently associated with major bleeding among patients taking oral anticoagulation (OAC) over a median follow-up of 2 years (interquartile range = 1.6–2.5). We also created a numerical bedside risk score that included the five most predictive risk factors weighted according to their strength of association with major bleeding. The predictive performance of the full model, the simple five-item score, and two existing risk scores (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile INR, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly, HAS-BLED, and anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation, ATRIA) were then assessed in both the ORBIT-AF cohort and a separate clinical trial population, Rivaroxaban Once-daily oral direct factor Xa inhibition compared with vitamin K antagonism for prevention of stroke and embolism trial in atrial fibrillation (ROCKET-AF). Results Among 7411 ORBIT-AF patients taking OAC, the rate of major bleeding was 4.0/100 person-years. The full continuous model (12 variables) and five-factor ORBIT risk score (older age [75+ years], reduced haemoglobin/haematocrit/history of anaemia, bleeding history, insufficient kidney function, and treatment with antiplatelet) both had good ability to identify those who bled vs. not (C-index 0.69 and 0.67, respectively). These scores both had
Silva, André Pacheco; Scholz, Jaqueline; Abe, Tania Ogawa; Pinheiro, Gabriela Gouveia; Gaya, Patricia Viviane; Pereira, Alexandre Costa; Santos, Paulo Caleb Junior Lima
Smoking is the most important reversible cardiovascular risk factor. It is well established that quitting smoking reduces coronary events. However, on several occasions, the cardiovascular safety of smoking cessation drugs has been questioned. Our goal is to evaluate the effects of smoking cessation drugs on blood pressure and heart rate in patients from a smoking cessation service in a cardiology hospital. We examined the PAF database (Smoking Cessation Assistance Program database) between January 2008 and March 2014. We analyzed data from 900 patients who were compliant with the treatment (50.5% male, average age 53 ± 17 years). The most frequent clinical diagnoses were coronary artery disease (25.2%), hypertension (57.2%), and diabetes (13.4%). Blood pressure, heart rate, and carbon monoxide (CO) concentration in exhaled air were analyzed at consecutive visits during the first 45 days of treatment (mean visits - 3). Analysis of repeated measures was used for the statistical analysis (p < 0.05). Two hundred seventy one patients used nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) alone, 81 used bupropion alone, 154 used varenicline alone, 283 used NRT plus bupropion and 111 used bupropion plus varenicline. For all smoking cessation drugs, used alone or in combination, no increase occurred in the average value of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and heart rate (HR). Significant reductions in CO concentrations occurred in all smoking cessation drug groups. Smoking cessation drugs used in monotherapy or in combined regimens did not influence systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and heart rate (HR) in this group of patients during the observation period.
Arts, E E A; Popa, C D; Den Broeder, A A; Donders, R; Sandoo, A; Toms, T; Rollefstad, S; Ikdahl, E; Semb, A G; Kitas, G D; Van Riel, P L C M; Fransen, J
Predictive performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators appears suboptimal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A disease-specific CVD risk algorithm may improve CVD risk prediction in RA. The objectives of this study are to adapt the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm with determinants of CVD risk in RA and to assess the accuracy of CVD risk prediction calculated with the adapted SCORE algorithm. Data from the Nijmegen early RA inception cohort were used. The primary outcome was first CVD events. The SCORE algorithm was recalibrated by reweighing included traditional CVD risk factors and adapted by adding other potential predictors of CVD. Predictive performance of the recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms was assessed and the adapted SCORE was externally validated. Of the 1016 included patients with RA, 103 patients experienced a CVD event. Discriminatory ability was comparable across the original, recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that all three algorithms provided poor model fit (p<0.05) for the Nijmegen and external validation cohort. The adapted SCORE algorithm mainly improves CVD risk estimation in non-event cases and does not show a clear advantage in reclassifying patients with RA who develop CVD (event cases) into more appropriate risk groups. This study demonstrates for the first time that adaptations of the SCORE algorithm do not provide sufficient improvement in risk prediction of future CVD in RA to serve as an appropriate alternative to the original SCORE. Risk assessment using the original SCORE algorithm may underestimate CVD risk in patients with RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Comparison of coronary artery calcification scores and National Cholesterol Education program guidelines for coronary heart disease risk assessment and treatment paradigms in individuals with chronic traumatic spinal cord injury.
Lieberman, Jesse A; Hammond, Flora M; Barringer, Thomas A; Norton, H J; Goff, David C; Bockenek, William L; Scelza, William M
To investigate the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) according to the National Cholesterol Educational Program (NCEP) guidelines and CT coronary artery calcium scores (CCS). Cross-sectional study of consecutive sample of males with SCI presenting to a single site for CHD risk assessment. Males age 45-70 with traumatic SCI (American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) A, B, and C) injured for at least 10 years with no prior history of clinical CHD. Medical history, blood-pressure, and fasting lipid panel were used to calculate risk for CHD with the use of the Framingham risk score (FRS). Risk and treatment eligibility status was assessed based on NCEP/FRS recommendations and by presence and amount of CCS. Percent agreement (PA) and kappa were calculated between the two algorithms. Spearman correlations were calculated between CCS and FRS and individual risk factors. A total of 38 men were assessed; 18 (47.4%) had CCS > 0. The PA between NCEP/FRS assessment and CCS was 18% with a kappa of -0.03. 11 (28.9%) had CCS > 100 or >75th percentile for their age, sex, and race, which might qualify them for lipid-lowering treatment. Only 26 were placed into the same treatment category by NCEP/FRS and CCS, for a PA of 68% with a kappa of 0.35. In all, 20 (52.6%) were eligible for lipid-lowering treatment by either NCEP/FRS (n=9) or CCS (n = 11). Seven subjects were above the treatment threshold based on CCS, but not NCEP/FRS and five subjects were above the NCEP/FRS threshold, but not CCS. Just four subjects were eligible by both algorithms. CCS only correlated with FRS (r = 0.508, P = 0.001) and age (r = 0.679, P < 0.001).
Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond
“Big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract. PMID:27429712
Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P
Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond; Schrimpf, Paul
"Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of "perfect" risk scoring under a given contract.
Al-Lawati, Jawad A; Barakat, Nabil M; Al-Lawati, Alya M; Mohammed, Ali J
We aimed to determine the gender-specific optimal cut-points for body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) associated with risk of cardiovascular disease, using Framingham risk score and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, among Omani Arabs. Nine percent of men, compared to 3% of women, had a 10-year total coronary heart disease (CHD) risk > or = 20%. In both genders, WHR was a better predictor of CHD (area under the ROC curve 0.771 for men and 0.802 for women), followed by WC (0.710 and 0.727) and BMI (0.601 and 0.639), respectively. For a 10-year CHD risk of > or = 20%, the optimal cut-points to assess adiposity in Omani men and women were > 22.6 and 22.9 kg/m2 for BMI, > 78.5 and 84.5 cm for WC, and > 0.96 and > 0.98 for WHR, respectively. To identify obesity among Omani Arabs, different cut-points for BMI, WC and WHR than the currently recommended ones are needed.
Mathur, Rohini; Dent, Tom; Meads, Catherine; Greenhalgh, Trisha
Objective To evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction Data were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes. Results 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an
Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; R Degano, Irene; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume
To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P < .001 in both sexes and with all functions). The area under the ROC curve with the original SCORE was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women. All versions of the SCORE functions available in Spain significantly overestimate the cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Canavese, G; Bruzzi, P; Catturich, A; Vecchio, C; Tomei, D; Del Mastro, L; Carli, F; Guenzi, M; Lacopo, F; Dozin, B
Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in early-breast cancer patients with positive sentinel node (SLN+) may not always be necessary. To predict the finding of ≥1 metastatic axillary node in addition to SLN+(s); to discriminate between patients who would or not benefit from ALND. Records of 397 consecutive patients with 1-2 SLN+s receiving ALND were reviewed. Clinico-pathological features were used in univariate and multivariate analyses to develop a logistic regression model predictive of the risk of ≥1 additional axillary node involved. The discrimination power of the model was quantified by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and validated using an independent set of 83 patients. In univariate analyses, the risk of ≥1 additional node involved was correlated with tumor size, grade, HER-2 and Ki-67 over-expression, number of SLN+s. All factors, but Ki-67, retained in multivariate regressions were used to generate a predictive model with good discriminating power on both the training and the validation sets (AUC 0.73 and 0.75, respectively). Three patient groups were defined based on their risk to present additional axillary burden. The model identifies SLN+-patients at low risk (≤15%) who could reasonably be spared ALND and those at high risk (>75%) who should receive ALND. For patients at intermediate risk, ALND appropriateness could be individually evaluated based on other clinico-pathological parameters. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Verma, Rajesh; Verma, Ashish; Gupta, Piyush; Agrawal, N. K.
Context: Overt hypothyroidism accelerates the cardiovascular disease. Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH), being considered as a preclinical state, impacts on cardiovascular status is not clear. Aims: This study was aimed at assessing cardiac risk stratification by Framingham risk scoring (FRS) and coronary coronary artery calcium score (CACS) by noncontrast cardiac computed tomography in SCH. Study Design: Observational study. Subjects and Methods: We enrolled thirty treatment-naive SCH patients (aged 30–60 years with no serious concurrent medical conditions), thirty euthyroid (age, sex, and body mass index-matched) controls, and ten healthy controls. All cases were evaluated for coronary artery calcium scoring and Framingham risk score. Statistical Analysis: Qualitative data were analyzed using the Chi-square test. In addition, demographics and CACS are summarized graphically or in a table. Results: SCH cases had higher thyroglobulin, while there was a trend toward an increase in total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), very LDL, and decrease in HDL levels. All participants had low-risk FRS (10-year FRS < 10%). The mean CACS in SCH was significantly higher than simple obese and healthy controls (47.17 vs. 2.67 vs. 0.00). Conclusion: This study suggests that SCH is an independent risk factor for coronary artery disease in apparently healthy controls. The risk of occult coronary artery disease is increased in SCH cases. PMID:27867875
Belsky, Daniel W; Moffitt, Terrie E; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Houts, Renate; McCarthy, Jeanette; Caspi, Avshalom
Multi-locus profiles of genetic risk, so-called "genetic risk scores," can be used to translate discoveries from genome-wide association studies into tools for population health research. We developed a genetic risk score for obesity from results of 16 published genome-wide association studies of obesity phenotypes in European-descent samples. We then evaluated this genetic risk score using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort GWAS sample (N = 10,745, 55% female, 77% white, 23% African American). Our 32-locus GRS was a statistically significant predictor of body mass index (BMI) and obesity among ARIC whites [for BMI, r = 0.13, p<1 × 10(-30); for obesity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.57 (95% CI 0.55-0.58)]. The GRS predicted differences in obesity risk net of demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic information. The GRS performed less well among African Americans. The genetic risk score we derived from GWAS provides a molecular measurement of genetic predisposition to elevated BMI and obesity.[Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Biodemography and Social Biology for the following resource: Supplement to Development & Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Obesity.].
Hachiya, Tsuyoshi; Kamatani, Yoichiro; Takahashi, Atsushi; Hata, Jun; Furukawa, Ryohei; Shiwa, Yuh; Yamaji, Taiki; Hara, Megumi; Tanno, Kozo; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Takashima, Naoyuki; Matsuda, Koichi; Wakai, Kenji; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Ago, Tetsuro; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Fukushima, Akimune; Hozawa, Atsushi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Endo, Ryujin; Sasaki, Makoto; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kobayashi, Seiichiro; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Hitomi, Jiro; Kita, Yoshikuni; Tanaka, Keitaro; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitazono, Takanari; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi
The prediction of genetic predispositions to ischemic stroke (IS) may allow the identification of individuals at elevated risk and thereby prevent IS in clinical practice. Previously developed weighted multilocus genetic risk scores showed limited predictive ability for IS. Here, we investigated the predictive ability of a newer method, polygenic risk score (polyGRS), based on the idea that a few strong signals, as well as several weaker signals, can be collectively informative to determine IS risk. We genotyped 13 214 Japanese individuals with IS and 26 470 controls (derivation samples) and generated both multilocus genetic risk scores and polyGRS, using the same derivation data set. The predictive abilities of each scoring system were then assessed using 2 independent sets of Japanese samples (KyushuU and JPJM data sets). In both validation data sets, polyGRS was shown to be significantly associated with IS, but weighted multilocus genetic risk scores was not. Comparing the highest with the lowest polyGRS quintile, the odds ratios for IS were 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.31) and 1.99 (95% confidence interval, 1.19-3.33) in the KyushuU and JPJM samples, respectively. Using the KyushuU samples, the addition of polyGRS to a nongenetic risk model resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive ability (net reclassification improvement=0.151; P<0.001). The polyGRS was shown to be superior to weighted multilocus genetic risk scores as an IS prediction model. Thus, together with the nongenetic risk factors, polyGRS will provide valuable information for individual risk assessment and management of modifiable risk factors. © 2016 The Authors.
Gourlay, Margaret L; Overman, Robert A; Fine, Jason P; Crandall, Carolyn J; Robbins, John; Schousboe, John T; Ensrud, Kristine E; LeBlanc, Erin S; Gass, Margery L; Johnson, Karen C; Womack, Catherine R; LaCroix, Andrea Z
Clinical practice guidelines recommend use of fracture risk scores for screening and pharmacologic treatment decisions. The timing of occurrence of treatment-level (according to 2014 National Osteoporosis Foundation guidelines) or screening-level (according to 2011 US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines) fracture risk scores has not been estimated in postmenopausal women. We conducted a retrospective competing risk analysis of new occurrence of treatment-level and screening-level fracture risk scores in postmenopausal women aged 50 years and older, prior to receipt of pharmacologic treatment and prior to first hip or clinical vertebral fracture. In 54,280 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 64 years without a bone mineral density test, the time for 10% to develop a treatment-level FRAX score could not be estimated accurately because of rare incidence of treatment-level scores. In 6096 women who had FRAX scores calculated with bone mineral density, the estimated unadjusted time to treatment-level FRAX ranged from 7.6 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.6-8.7) for those aged 65 to 69, to 5.1 years (95% CI, 3.5-7.5) for those aged 75 to 79 at baseline. Of 17,967 women aged 50 to 64 with a screening-level FRAX at baseline, 100 (0.6%) experienced a hip or clinical vertebral fracture by age 65 years. Postmenopausal women with sub-threshold fracture risk scores at baseline were unlikely to develop a treatment-level FRAX score between ages 50 and 64 years. After age 65, the increased incidence of treatment-level fracture risk scores, osteoporosis, and major osteoporotic fracture supports more frequent consideration of FRAX and bone mineral density testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Association of Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth Risk Score and 15-year Change in Risk Score with Carotid Artery Intima-Media Thickness in Young Adults (From the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study)
McMahan, C. Alex; Gidding, Samuel S.; Viikari, Jorma S. A.; Juonala, Markus; Kähönen, Mika; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Jokinen, Eero; Taittonen, Leena; Pietikäinen, Matti; McGill, Henry C.; Raitakari, Olli T.
The Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) study of autopsied 15-34 year old young people developed a risk score using the coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors (sex, age, serum lipoprotein concentrations, smoking, hypertension, obesity, and hyperglycemia) to estimate the probability of advanced atherosclerotic lesions in the coronary arteries. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study measured CHD risk factors in a population-based cohort in 1986 and 2001 and measured carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) with ultrasound in 2001. We computed the PDAY risk score from risk factors measured in 1279 subjects who were 12-24 years old in 1986 and 27-39 years in 2001. The PDAY risk score early in life (1986) and the change in risk score over the following 15 years (between 1986 and 2001) were independent predictors of carotid artery IMT; the multiplicative effect of 1 point in the 1986 risk score was 1.008 (95% CI 1.005-1.012) and the multiplicative effect of a 1 point increase between 1986 and 2001 risk scores was 1.003 (95% CI 1.001-1.006) (multiplicative effect 0.997 for 1 point decrease). In conclusion, the change over time (either a decrease or an increase) in the risk score during adolescence and young adulthood as well as the risk score early in life are important predictors of atherosclerosis. PMID:17884375
Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi
The Pooled Cohort Risk Equation was introduced by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) 2013 in their Blood Cholesterol Guideline to estimate the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. However, absence of Asian ethnicity in the contemporary cohorts and limited studies to examine the use of the risk score limit the applicability of the equation in an Asian population. This study examines the validity of the pooled cohort risk score in a primary care setting and compares the cardiovascular risk using both the pooled cohort risk score and the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk score. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of randomly selected patients aged 40-79 years. Baseline demographic data, co-morbidities and cardiovascular (CV) risk parameters were captured from patient records in 1998. Pooled cohort risk score and Framingham General CVD risk score for each patient were computed. All ASCVD events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease (CHD) death, fatal and nonfatal stroke) occurring from 1998-2007 were recorded. A total of 922 patients were studied. In 1998, mean age was 57.5 ± 8.8 years with 66.7% female. There were 47% diabetic patients and 59.9% patients receiving anti-hypertensive treatment. More than 98% of patients with pooled cohort risk score ≥7.5% had FRS >10%. A total of 45 CVD events occurred, 22 (7.2%) in males and 23 (3.7%) in females. The median pooled cohort risk score for the population was 10.1 (IQR 4.7-20.6) while the actual ASCVD events that occurred was 4.9% (45/922). Our study showed moderate discrimination with AUC of 0.63. There was good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2 = 12.6, P = 0.12. The pooled cohort risk score appears to overestimate CV risk but this apparent over-prediction could be a result of treatment. In the absence of a validated score in an untreated population, the pooled cohort risk score appears to be
Ashok, Pranita; Kharche, Jayshree S; Joshi, Aniruddha R
According to World Health Organisation, type 2 diabetes mellitus [type 2 D. M] has recently escalated in all age groups and is now being identified in younger age groups. This underscores the need for mass awareness and screening programs to detect diabetes at an early stage. For this purpose we have used a simplified Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) for prediction of diabetes in undergraduate medical students. To screen and to identify 1st MBBS students at risk for developing type 2 D. M using IDRS. 261 undergraduates (1st MBBS students) were scored using IDRS which includes age, family history of diabetes, exercise status, and waist circumference. After scoring them, we assessed random capillary blood glucose (RCBG) in students with high IDRS score. Students with RCBG ≥ 113 mg/dl are followed for definitive tests for diagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes. We have assessed 261 students till now. It was observed that 5%, 55%, and 38% students in High, Moderate, and Low risk group, respectively, for developing type 2 D. M. The mean abdominal obesity in high risk students was 101.95 ± 5.76 as compared to 79.17 ± 11.08 in moderate and low risk students (P < 0.0001). 63% students were having sedentary lifestyle. Family history of diabetes in either or both parents was present in 25% students. Mean RCBG in students having score more than 50 was 97.33 ± 9.68 mg/dl. Also, two students were having RCBG > 113 mg/dl in which one student found to have prediabetic. This underscores the need for further investigations to detect diabetes at an early stage and to overcome the disease burden of diabetes in future. Prevention of obesity and promotion of physical activity have to be the future plan of action which can be suggested in the form of regular exercise and diet planning for the students as part of an integrated approach.
Russell, Rebecca A; Ghanayem, Nancy S; Kuhn, Evelyn M; Jeffries, Howard E; Scanlon, Matthew C; Rice, Tom B
The Risk-Adjusted Classification for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method and Aristotle Basic Complexity (ABC) scores correlate with mortality. However, low mortality rates in congenital heart disease (CHD) make use of mortality as the primary outcome measure insufficient. Demonstrating correlation between risk-adjustment tools and the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD) score might allow for risk-adjusted comparison of an outcome measure other than mortality. Data were obtained from the Virtual PICU Systems database. Patients with postoperative CHD between 2009 and 2010 were included. Correlation between RACHS-1 category and PELOD score and between ABC level and PELOD score was examined using Spearman rank correlation. Consistency of PELOD scores across institutions for given levels of case complexity was examined using Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric analysis of variance. A total of 1,981 patient visits among 12 institutions met inclusion criteria. Positive correlations between PELOD score and RACHS-1 category (r s = .353, P < .0001) as well as between PELOD score and ABC level (r s = .328, P < .0001) were demonstrated. Variability in PELOD scores across individual centers for given levels of case complexity was observed (P < .04). Risk-Adjusted Classification for Congenital Heart Surgery categories and ABC levels correlate with postoperative organ dysfunction as measured by PELOD. However, the correlation was weak, potentially due to limitations of the PELOD score itself. Identification of a more accurate metric of morbidity for the congenital heart disease population is needed.
Araújo, Rui; Sorensen, Aaron A.; Konkiel, Stacy; Bloem, Bastiaan R.
A new class of social web-based metrics for scholarly publications (altmetrics) has surfaced as a complement to traditional citation-based metrics. Our aim was to study and characterize those recent papers in the field of Parkinson’s disease which had received the highest Altmetric Attention Scores and to compare this attention measure to the traditional metrics. The top 20 papers in our analysis covered a variety of topics, mainly new disease mechanisms, treatment options and risk factors for the development of PD. The main media sources for these high attention papers were news items and Twitter. The papers were published predominantly in high impact journals, suggesting a correlation between altmetrics and conventional metrics. One paper published in a relatively modest journal received a significant amount of attention, reflecting that public attention does not always parallel the traditional metrics. None of the most influential papers in PD, as reviewed by Ponce and Lozano (2011) made it to our list, suggesting that recent publications receive higher attention scores, and that altmetrics may omit older, seminal work in the field. PMID:28222540
Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G.; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R.; Vashist, Yogesh K.
Abstract Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score. PMID:26886613
Summary measures of cardiovascular risk have long been used in public health, but few include nutritional predictors despite extensive evidence linking diet and heart disease. Study objectives were to develop and validate a novel risk score in a case-control study of myocardial infarction (MI) condu...
Sutter, David A; Thomaides, Athanasios; Hornsby, Kyle; Mahenthiran, Jothiharan; Feigenbaum, Harvey; Sawada, Stephen G
Cardiovascular mortality is high in African Americans, and those with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at increased risk. The aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring system to improve the prediction of cardiovascular events in African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography. Clinical data and rest echocardiographic measurements were obtained in 548 consecutive African Americans with normal results on rest and stress echocardiography and ejection fractions ≥50%. Patients were followed for myocardial infarction and death for 3 years. Predictors of cardiovascular events were determined with Cox regression, and hazard ratios were used to determine the number of points in the risk score attributed to each independent predictor. During follow-up of 3 years, 47 patients (8.6%) had events. Five variables-age (≥45 years in men, ≥55 years in women), history of coronary disease, history of smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, and exercise intolerance (<7 METs in men, <5 METs in women, or need for dobutamine stress)-were independent predictors of events. A risk score was derived for each patient (ranging from 0 to 8 risk points). The area under the curve for the risk score was 0.82 with the optimum cut-off risk score of 6. Among patients with risk scores ≥6, 30% had events, compared with 3% with risk score <6 (p <0.001). In conclusion, African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at significant risk for cardiovascular events. A risk score can be derived from clinical and echocardiographic variables, which can accurately distinguish high- and low-risk patients.
Chang, Chun-Ming; Yin, Wen-Yao; Su, Yu-Chieh; Wei, Chang-Kao; Lee, Cheng-Hung; Juang, Shiun-Yang; Chen, Yi-Ting; Chen, Jin-Cherng; Lee, Ching-Chih
The impact of important preexisting comorbidities, such as liver and renal disease, on the outcome of liver resection remains unclear. Identification of patients at risk of mortality will aid in improving preoperative preparations. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a population-based score based on available preoperative and predictable parameters predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection using data from a hepatitis endemic country.We identified 13,159 patients who underwent liver resection between 2002 and 2006 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In a randomly selected half of the total patients, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction score for estimating the risk of 90-day mortality by patient demographics, preoperative liver disease and comorbidities, indication for surgery, and procedure type. The score was validated with the remaining half of the patients.Overall 90-day mortality was 3.9%. Predictive characteristics included in the model were age, preexisting cirrhosis-related complications, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, renal disease, malignancy, and procedure type. Four risk groups were stratified by mortality scores of 1.1%, 2.2%, 7.7%, and 15%. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications were the strongest predictors. The score discriminated well in both the derivation and validation sets with c-statistics of 0.75 and 0.75, respectively.This population-based score could identify patients at risk of 90-day mortality before liver resection. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications had the strongest influence on mortality. This score enables preoperative risk stratification, decision-making, quality assessment, and counseling for individual patients.
de Araújo Nobre, Miguel; Mano Azul, António; Rocha, Evangelista; Maló, Paulo; Salvado, Francisco
This study aimed to estimate the impact of risk factors for peri-implant pathology, to identify potentially modifiable factors, and to evaluate the accuracy of the risk algorithm, risk scores and risk stratification. This retrospective case-control study with 1275 patients (255 cases; 1020 controls) retrieved a model according to the predictors: history of Periodontitis, bacterial plaque, bleeding, bone level, lack of passive fit or non-optimal screw joint, metal-ceramic restoration, proximity to other implants/teeth, and smoking habits. Outcome measures were the attributable fraction; the positive and negative likelihood ratios at different disease cut-off points illustrated by the area under the curve statistic. Six predictors may be modified or controlled directly by either the patient or the clinician, accounting for a reduction in up to 95% of the peri-implant pathology cases. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 9.69 and 0.13, respectively; the area under the curve was 0.96; a risk score was developed, making the complex statistical model useful to clinicians. Based on the results, six predictors for the incidence of peri-implant pathology can be modified to significantly improve the outcome. It was possible to stratify patients per risk category according to the risk score, providing a tool for clinicians to support their decision-making process. Copyright © 2016 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sanni Ali, M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Pestman, Wiebe R; Belitser, Svetlana V; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, A; Klungel, Olaf H
Stratification and conditioning on time-varying cofounders which are also intermediates can induce collider-stratification bias and adjust-away the (indirect) effect of exposure. Similar bias could be expected when one conditions on time-dependent PS. We explored collider-stratification and confounding bias due to conditioning or stratifying on time-dependent PS using a clinical example on the effect of inhaled short- and long-acting beta2-agonist use (SABA and LABA, respectively) on coronary heart disease (CHD). In an electronic general practice database we selected a cohort of patients with an indication for SABA and/or LABA use and ascertained potential confounders and SABA/LABA use per three month intervals. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using PS stratification as well as covariate adjustment and compared with those of Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) in both SABA and LABA use separately. In MSMs, censoring was accounted for by including inverse probability of censoring weights.The crude HR of CHD was 0.90 [95 % CI: 0.63, 1.28] and 1.55 [95 % CI: 1.06, 2.62] in SABA and LABA users respectively. When PS stratification, covariate adjustment using PS, and MSMs were used, the HRs were 1.09 [95 % CI: 0.74, 1.61], 1.07 [95 % CI: 0.72, 1.60], and 0.86 [95 % CI: 0.55, 1.34] for SABA, and 1.09 [95 % CI: 0.74, 1.62], 1.13 [95 % CI: 0.76, 1.67], 0.77 [95 % CI: 0.45, 1.33] for LABA, respectively. Results were similar for different PS methods, but higher than those of MSMs. When treatment and confounders vary during follow-up, conditioning or stratification on time-dependent PS could induce substantial collider-stratification or confounding bias; hence, other methods such as MSMs are recommended.
Urowitz, Murray B; Ibañez, Dominique; Su, Jiandong; Gladman, Dafna D
The traditional Framingham Risk Factor Score (FRS) underestimates the risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to determine whether an adjustment to the FRS would more accurately reflect the higher prevalence of CAD among patients with SLE. Patients with SLE without a previous history of CAD or diabetes followed regularly at the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic were included. A modified FRS (mFRS) was calculated by multiplying the items by 1.5, 2, 3, or 4. In the first part of the study, using one-third of all eligible patients, we evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of the FRS and the different multipliers for the mFRS. In the second part of the study, using the remaining 2/3 of the eligible patients, we compared the predictive ability of the FRS to the mFRS. In the third part of the study, we assessed the prediction for CAD in a time-dependent analysis of the FRS and mFRS. There were 905 women (89.3%) with a total of 95 CAD events included. In part 1, we determined that a multiplier of 2 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity. In part 2, 2.4% of the patients were classified as moderate/high risk based on the classic FRS and 17.3% using the 2FRS (the FRS with a multiplier of 2). In part 3, a time-dependent covariate analysis for the prediction of the first CAD event revealed an HR of 3.22 (p = 0.07) for the classic FRS and 4.37 (p < 0.0001) for the 2FRS. An mFRS in which each item is multiplied by 2 more accurately predicts CAD in patients with SLE.
Zubair, N; Mayer-Davis, E J; Mendez, M A; Mohlke, K L; North, K E; Adair, L S
Background/Objectives: Individually, genetic variants only moderately influence cardiometabolic (CM) traits, such as lipid and inflammatory markers. In this study we generated genetic risk scores from a combination of previously reported variants influencing CM traits, and used these scores to explore how adiposity levels could mediate genetic contributions to CM traits. Subjects/Methods: Participants included 1649 women from the 2005 Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Three genetic risk scores were constructed for C-reactive protein (CRP), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (TGs). We used linear regression models to assess the association between each genetic risk score and its related trait. We also tested for interactions between each score and measures of adiposity. Results: Each genetic risk score explained a greater proportion of variance in trait levels than any individual genetic variant. We found an interaction between the TG genetic risk score (2.29–14.34 risk alleles) and waist circumference (WC) (Pinteraction=1.66 × 10−2). Based on model predictions, for individuals with a higher TG genetic risk score (75th percentile=12), having an elevated WC (⩾80 cm) increased TG levels from 1.32 to 1.71 mmol l−1. However, for individuals with a lower score (25th percentile=7), having an elevated WC did not significantly change TG levels. Conclusions: The TG genetic risk score interacted with adiposity to synergistically influence TG levels. For individuals with a genetic predisposition to elevated TG levels, our results suggest that reducing adiposity could possibly prevent further increases in TG levels and thereby lessen the likelihood of adverse health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease. PMID:24932782
Power, Robert A; Steinberg, Stacy; Bjornsdottir, Gyda; Rietveld, Cornelius A; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Nivard, Michel M; Johannesson, Magnus; Galesloot, Tessel E; Hottenga, Jouke J; Willemsen, Gonneke; Cesarini, David; Benjamin, Daniel J; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Ullén, Fredrik; Tiemeier, Henning; Hofman, Albert; van Rooij, Frank J A; Walters, G Bragi; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Thorgeirsson, Thorgeir E; Ingason, Andres; Helgason, Agnar; Kong, Augustine; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Koellinger, Philipp; Boomsma, Dorret I; Gudbjartsson, Daniel; Stefansson, Hreinn; Stefansson, Kari
We tested whether polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder would predict creativity. Higher scores were associated with artistic society membership or creative profession in both Icelandic (P = 5.2 × 10(-6) and 3.8 × 10(-6) for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder scores, respectively) and replication cohorts (P = 0.0021 and 0.00086). This could not be accounted for by increased relatedness between creative individuals and those with psychoses, indicating that creativity and psychosis share genetic roots.
de Araujo Costa, Graziela; Delgado, Artur F; Ferraro, Alexandre; Okay, Thelma Suely
INTRODUCTION: To establish disease severity at admission can be performed by way of the mortality prognostic. Nowadays the prognostic scores make part of quality control and research. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) is one of the scores used in the pediatric intensive care units. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is the utilization of the PRISM and determination of mortality risk factors in a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. METHODS : Retrospective cohort study, in a period of one year, at a general tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. The pediatric risk of mortality scores corresponding to the first 24 hours of hospitalization were recorded; additional data were collected to characterize the study population. RESULTS: 359 patients were included; the variables that were found to be risk factors for death were multiple organ dysfunction syndrome on admission, mechanical ventilation, use of vasoactive drugs, hospital‐acquired infection, parenteral nutrition and duration of hospitalization (p < 0,0001). Fifty‐four patients (15%) died; median pediatric risk of mortality score was significantly lower in patients who survived (p = 0,0001). The ROC curve yielded a value of 0.76 (CI 95% 0,69–0,83) and the calibration was shown to be adequate. DISCUSSION: It is imperative for pediatric intensive care units to implement strict quality controls to identify groups at risk of death and to ensure the adequacy of treatment. Although some authors have shown that the PRISM score overestimates mortality and that it is not appropriate in specific pediatric populations, in this study pediatric risk of mortality showed satisfactory discriminatory performance in differentiating between survivors and non‐survivors. CONCLUSIONS: The pediatric risk of mortality score showed adequate discriminatory capacity and thus constitutes a useful tool for the assessment of prognosis for pediatric patients admitted to a tertiary pediatric intensive care units. PMID
Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta
In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Lassale, Camille; Assmann, Karen E; Andreeva, Valentina A; Julia, Chantal; Blacher, Jacques; Fezeu, Léopold; Hercberg, Serge; Galan, Pilar
Research concerning the link between individual vascular risk factors and cognition is plentiful but few studies have investigated the role of global vascular risk. We examined the cross-time associations of several vascular risk scores with cognitive performance during aging. Using data from the French SU.VI.MAX cohort, we studied a sample of 3061 participants. Framingham coronary heart disease, cardiovascular and stroke risk profiles were computed using baseline data (1994-1996). Cognitive performance was assessed after a mean of 13 years via a battery of six validated instruments. Principal component analysis identified scores for verbal memory and working memory. Associations between risk profiles (as continuous variables and in quartiles (Q)) and subsequent poor performance (defined as cognitive score ≤10th percentile) were examined via logistic regression (odds ratios, 95% CI) and analysis of covariance. All continuous-scale Framingham risk scores assessed at midlife were inversely and uniformly associated with subsequent poor global cognitive performance, and especially in terms of verbal memory. Considering risk score Q, higher Q were associated with poorer performance in verbal memory: The fully-adjusted odds ratios (95% CI), comparing Q4 versus Q1, were 2.84 (1.70, 4.75), 2.31 (1.43, 3.73) and 1.77 (1.13, 2.76) for Framingham coronary heart disease, cardiovascular and stroke risk profiles, respectively. Similar findings were observed when modeling cognitive outcomes as continuous variables using covariance analyses. This study supports the existence of an inverse cross-time association between midlife vascular risk profiles and subsequent poor cognitive performance, especially in the verbal memory domain. Beyond their importance as regards vascular risk, such risk scores may help primary prevention efforts in identifying and targeting middle-aged individuals at high risk of cognitive aging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Liew, Su May; Blacklock, Claire; Hislop, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; Mant, David
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and the Quality Outcomes Framework require practitioners to use cardiovascular risk scores in assessments for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. To explore GPs understanding and use of cardiovascular risk scores. Qualitative study with purposive maximum variation sampling of 20 GPs working in Oxfordshire, UK. Method Thematic analysis of transcriptions of face-to-face interviews with participants undertaken by two individuals (one clinical, one non-clinical). GPs use cardiovascular risk scores primarily to guide treatment decisions by estimating the risk of a vascular event if the patient remains untreated. They expressed considerable uncertainty about how and whether to take account of existing drug treatment or other types of prior risk modification. They were also unclear about the choice between the older scores, based on the Framingham study, and newer scores, such as QRISK. There was substantial variation in opinion about whether scores could legitimately be used to illustrate to patients the change in risk as a result of treatment. The overall impression was of considerable confusion. The drive to estimate risk more precisely by qualifying guidance and promoting new scores based on partially-treated populations appears to have created unnecessary confusion for little obvious benefit. National guidance needs to be simplified, and, to be fit for purpose, better reflect the ways in which cardiovascular risk scores are currently used in general practice. Patients may be better served by simple advice to use a Framingham score and exercise more clinical judgement, explaining to patients the necessary imprecision of any individual estimate of risk.
Rosales-Alexander, J L; Salvatierra, J; Llorca, J; Magro-Checa, C; González-Gay, M A; Cantero-Hinojosa, J; Raya-Álvarez, E
To evaluate the impact of the application of the EULAR task force recommendations in the cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients according to a national calibrated SCORE. Two hundred and one consecutive RA patients seen at the rheumatology outpatient clinics of the University Hospital 'San Cecilio', Granada, Southern Spain, were studied. Information on demographic, classic CV risk factors, history of CV events and disease clinical features were obtained. Both the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) risk index and the modified SCORE (mSCORE) following the EULAR recommendations were performed. Based on the classic CV risk factors the mean ± standard deviation SCORE was 2.2 ± 2.6 (median 2). Twenty-two (11%) patients were above the threshold of high risk for the Spanish population. Following the EULAR recommendations 52 of the 124 patients (41.93%) initially classified as having intermediate risk were reclassified as having high CV risk. Therefore, the mean mSCORE was 3.3 ± 4 (median 3) and, due to this, 74 (36.8%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk for the Spanish population. As expected, patients who had experienced CV events were older, had more CV risk factors and higher mSCORE than those without CV events. These observations support the claim that the mSCORE should be specifically adapted to the population to be assessed. However, the use of additional tools should be considered in an attempt to fully identify high-risk RA patients.
Ferreira, Sara; Amorim, Marco; Couto, Antonio
Traffic crashes result in a loss of life but also impact the quality of life and productivity of crash survivors. Given the importance of traffic crash outcomes, the issue has received attention from researchers and practitioners as well as government institutions, such as the European Commission (EC). Thus, to obtain detailed information on the injury type and severity of crash victims, hospital data have been proposed for use alongside police crash records. A new injury severity classification based on hospital data, called the maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS), was developed and recently adopted by the EC. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the factors that affect injury severity as classified by the MAIS score. In this study, the MAIS score was derived from the International Classification of Diseases. The European Union adopted an MAIS score equal to or greater than 3 as the definition for a serious traffic crash injury. Gains are expected from using both police and hospital data because the injury severities of the victims are detailed by medical staff and the characteristics of the crash and the site of its occurrence are also provided. The data were obtained by linking police and hospital data sets from the Porto metropolitan area of Portugal over a 6-year period (2006-2011). A mixed logit model was used to understand the factors that contribute to the injury severity of traffic victims and to explore the impact of these factors on injury severity. A random parameter approach offers methodological flexibility to capture individual-specific heterogeneity. Additionally, to understand the importance of using a reliable injury severity scale, we compared MAIS with length of hospital stay (LHS), a classification used by several countries, including Portugal, to officially report injury severity. To do so, the same statistical technique was applied using the same variables to analyze their impact on the injury severity classified according to LHS
Yerly, Patrick; Marquès-Vidal, Pedro; Owlya, Reza; Eeckhout, Eric; Kappenberger, Lukas; Darioli, Roger; Depairon, Michèle
Ultrasonographic detection of subclinical atherosclerosis improves cardiovascular risk stratification, but uncertainty persists about the most discriminative method to apply. In this study, we found that the "atherosclerosis burden score (ABS)", a novel straightforward ultrasonographic score that sums the number of carotid and femoral arterial bifurcations with plaques, significantly outperformed common carotid intima-media thickness, carotid mean/maximal thickness, and carotid/femoral plaque scores for the detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area under the curve (AUC) = 0.79; P = 0.027 to <0.001 with the other five US endpoints) in 203 patients undergoing coronary angiography. ABS was also more correlated with CAD extension (R = 0.55; P < 0.001). Furthermore, in a second group of 1128 patients without cardiovascular disease, ABS was weakly correlated with the European Society of Cardiology chart risk categories (R(2) = 0.21), indicating that ABS provided information beyond usual cardiovascular risk factor-based risk stratification. Pending prospective studies on hard cardiovascular endpoints, ABS appears as a promising tool in primary prevention.
Cordero, Alberto; Rodriguez-Manero, Moisés; García-Acuña, Jose M; López-Palop, Ramón; Cid, Belen; Carrillo, Pilar; Agra-Bermejo, Rosa; González-Salvado, Violeta; Iglesias-Alvarez, Diego; Bertomeu-Martínez, Vicente; González-Juanatey, Jose R
Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) treatments increase bleeding complications that also impair prognosis. Bleeding risk scores reclassification of actual mortality risk estimated by the GRACE score might improve overall estimation. Observational and prospective study of all ACS patients admitted in two hospitals. Mortality risk was assessed by the GRACE score and bleeding risk by the CRUSADE score. We analyzed the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of adding the CRUSADE score to the GRACE score. We included 6997 patients, mean age 67.4 (12.9), 38.0% ST-elevation ACS, mean GRACE score 145.2 (39.9). The percentage of patients with CRUSADE score >20 or >50 increased as the GRACE score was higher. Hospital mortality was 5.3% and the addition of the CRUSADE score reclassified a relevant percentage of patients with GRACE score >109; NRI was 3.80% (1.10-6.10). During follow-up, (median 53.0months) mortality rate was 22.6% and patients with CRUSADE score >50 had significantly higher mortality rates in all GRACE score categories; NRI was high (46.6%, 95% CI 41.0-53.1). The multivariate analysis outlined the independent predictive value of CRUSADE score >20 or >50 as well as GRACE scores 109-139 and >140. The addition of the CRUSADE score to the GRACE score improved mortality risk estimation. A CRUSADE score >50 identified patients with higher post-discharge mortality and higher hospital mortality if GRACE score was >109. The CRUSADE score improved hospital and long-term mortality prediction in patients with GRACE score >140. Individual mortality risk estimation should integrate the CRUSADE and GRACE scores. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert
Objectives Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for “optimizing” care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3–5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer
Schumacher, Tracy L.; Burrows, Tracy L.; Cliff, Dylan P.; Jones, Rachel A.; Okely, Anthony D.; Baur, Louise A.; Morgan, Philip J.; Callister, Robin; Boggess, May M.; Collins, Clare E.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) originates in childhood and early identification of risk factors provides an early intervention opportunity. The aim was to identify children at higher risk using a CVD risk score, developed from factors known to cluster in childhood. Risk was scored as very high (≥97.5th centile), high (≥95th), moderate (≥90th) or threshold (<90th) using normal pediatric reference ranges for 10 common biomedical risk factors. These were summed in a multifactor CVD risk score and applied to a sample of 285 observations from 136 overweight Australian children (41% male, aged 7–12 years). Strength of associations between CVD risk score and individual biomedical and dietary variables were assessed using univariate logistic regression. High waist circumference (Odds Ratio: 5.48 [95% CI: 2.60–11.55]), body mass index (OR: 3.22 [1.98–5.26]), serum insulin (OR: 3.37 [2.56–4.42]) and triglycerides (OR: 3.02 [2.22–4.12]) were all significantly related to CVD risk score. High intakes of total fat (OR: 4.44 [1.19–16.60]), sugar (OR: 2.82 [1.54–5.15]) and carbohydrate (OR 1.75 [1.11–2.77]) were significantly related to CVD risk score in boys only. This multifactor CVD risk score could be a useful tool for researchers to identify elevated risk in children. Further research is warranted to examine sex-specific dietary factors related to CVD risk in children. PMID:27429277
Gómez-Vaquero, Carmen; Robustillo, Montserrat; Narváez, Javier; Rodríguez-Moreno, Jesús; González-Juanatey, Carlos; Llorca, Javier; Nolla, Joan Miquel; González-Gay, Miguel Angel
To assess the impact of the application of the European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) task force recommendations in the cardiovascular (CV) risk of a series of Spanish patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Two hundred consecutive RA patients seen at the rheumatology outpatient clinics of Bellvitge Hospital, Barcelona, were studied. Information on clinical features of the disease, classic CV risk factors, and history of CV events was assessed. Both the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) CV risk index and the modified SCORE (mSCORE) according to the last EULAR recommendations were calculated. Based on the classic CV risk factors, the mean ± standard deviation SCORE was 2.1 ± 2.3% (median, 2; interquartile range [IQR], 1-3). Twenty-three (11%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk for the Spanish population (≥5%). Following the EULAR recommendations, a change in the score was required in 119 (59%) patients. Therefore, the mean mSCORE was 2.7 ± 2.9% (median, 2; IQR, 1-3) and, due to this, 28 (14%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk. Nine (5%) had at least one ischemic CV event. Patients with CV events were older and had more CV risk factors and higher SCORE and mSCORE than those without CV events. Although a large proportion of patients from this series fulfilled the criteria for the application of the EULAR recommendations, the final impact on the calculated CV risk was low and clinically significant in only a few patients. However, an association between the mSCORE and the presence of ischemic CV events was observed.
Verma, Kaushal K; Bansal, Arika; Bhari, Neetu; Sethuraman, Gomathy
Background: Parthenium dermatitis is the most common type of airborne contact dermatitis in India. It is a chronic disease of a remitting and relapsing course with significant morbidity and distress, but there is no scoring system to assess its severity. Aim: To design a scoring system for the assessment of clinical severity of disease in Parthenium dermatitis and to use this scoring system in various studies to determine its sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility. Methods and Results: In our first few studies on Parthenium dermatitis, we designed and used a basic clinical severity scoring system based on itching, morphology of the lesions, and areas involved. However, in subsequent studies, we modified it to the present scoring system as Parthenium dermatitis severity score (PDSS). Our studies showed the high sensitivity of PDSS in characterization of the disease severity at the given point of time, as well as to determine the efficacy of a prescribed treatment modality which was reliable and reproducible. Conclusion: Thus, PDSS may be used by clinicians for appropriate scoring of the clinical severity of Parthenium dermatitis and in monitoring the disease response to therapy. PMID:28216730
Hofstra, Julia M.; Wetzels, Jack F.M.
Summary Background and objectives Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. Design, setting, participants, & measurements One hundred four patients with biopsy-proven idiopathic membranous nephropathy who presented between 1995 and 2008 with a well-preserved kidney function and nephrotic range proteinuria were included. Urinary β2-microglobulin and α1-microglobulin measurements were obtained by timed standardized measurements, and the Toronto Risk Score was calculated using data obtained from medical records. The endpoint was progression, which was defined as an increase in serum creatinine>50% or >25% with a concentration>135 μmol/L. Results Forty-nine patients showed progression. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval=0.69–0.88) for the risk score versus 0.80 (0.71–0.89) and 0.79 (0.71–0.88) for urinary β2- and α1-microglobulin, respectively. Differences were not significant. Persistent proteinuria did not add accuracy to the Toronto Risk Score. Conversely, its accuracy was not reduced when data from the first 6 months of follow-up were used. Furthermore, a score based on GFR estimated with the six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, calculated in the first 6 months of follow-up, gave an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (0.74–0.92), which was not statistically different from other markers. Conclusions The prognostic accuracies of the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins were not significantly different. The risk score can be calculated within 6 months of diagnosis, and a simplified risk score using estimated GFR–Modification of Diet in Renal Disease may be sufficient. PMID:22595828
van den Brand, Jan A J G; Hofstra, Julia M; Wetzels, Jack F M
Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. One hundred four patients with biopsy-proven idiopathic membranous nephropathy who presented between 1995 and 2008 with a well-preserved kidney function and nephrotic range proteinuria were included. Urinary β2-microglobulin and α1-microglobulin measurements were obtained by timed standardized measurements, and the Toronto Risk Score was calculated using data obtained from medical records. The endpoint was progression, which was defined as an increase in serum creatinine > 50% or > 25% with a concentration > 135 μmol/L. Forty-nine patients showed progression. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval = 0.69-0.88) for the risk score versus 0.80 (0.71-0.89) and 0.79 (0.71-0.88) for urinary β2- and α1-microglobulin, respectively. Differences were not significant. Persistent proteinuria did not add accuracy to the Toronto Risk Score. Conversely, its accuracy was not reduced when data from the first 6 months of follow-up were used. Furthermore, a score based on GFR estimated with the six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, calculated in the first 6 months of follow-up, gave an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (0.74-0.92), which was not statistically different from other markers. The prognostic accuracies of the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins were not significantly different. The risk score can be calculated within 6 months of diagnosis, and a simplified risk score using estimated GFR-Modification of Diet in Renal Disease may be sufficient.
Tontini, Gian Eugenio; Bisschops, Raf; Neumann, Helmut
Endoscopy plays a pivotal role for diagnosis and assessment of disease activity and extent in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases. International guidelines recommend the use of endoscopic scoring systems for evaluation of the prognosis and efficacy of medical treatments. Ideal scoring systems are easy to use, reproducible, reliable, responsive to changes, and validated in different clinical settings in order to guide therapeutic strategies. However, currently available endoscopic scoring systems often appear as complex for routine endoscopy and suffer from insufficient interobserver agreement and lack of formal validation which often limit their use in clinical trials. Here, we describe the role of endoscopic scoring systems in inflammatory bowel diseases focusing on pros and cons in the era of advanced endoscopic imaging and mucosal healing.
Koutroumpakis, Efstratios; Katsanos, Konstantinos H.
Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) was developed as an attempt to simplify Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity (CDEIS). Since it was constructed from CDEIS, SES-CD performs comparably but also carries similar limitations. Several studies have utilized SES-CD scoring to describe disease severity or response to therapy. Some of them used SES-CD score as a continuous variable while others utilized certain cutoff values to define severity grades. All SES-CD cutoff values reported in published clinical trials were empirically selected by experts. Although in most of the studies that used SEC-CD scoring to define disease severity, a score <3 reflected inactive disease, no study is using score 0 to predefine inactivity. Studies applying SES-CD to define response to treatment used score 0. There is no optimal SES-CD cut-off for endoscopic remission. The quantification of mucosal healing using SES-CD scoring has not been standardized yet. As the definition of mucosal healing by SES-CD is unset, the concept of deep remission is also still evolving. Serum and fecal biomarkers as well as new radiologic imaging techniques are complementary to SES-CD. Current practice as well as important changes in endoscopy should be taken into consideration when defining SES-CD cutoffs. The optimal timing of SES-CD scoring to assess mucosal healing is not defined yet. To conclude, SES-CD represents a valuable tool. However, a consensus agreement on its optimal use is required. PMID:27184635
da Cunha, Diogo T.; Saccol, Ana L. de Freitas; Tondo, Eduardo C.; de Oliveira, Ana B. A.; Ginani, Veronica C.; Araújo, Carolina V.; Lima, Thalita A. S.; de Castro, Angela K. F.; Stedefeldt, Elke
In 2014, Brazil hosted one of the most popular sport competitions in the world, the FIFA World Cup. Concerned about the intense migration of tourists, the Brazilian government decided to deploy a food safety strategy based on inspection scores and a grading system applied to food services. The present study aimed to evaluate the results of the food safety strategy deployed during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. To assess food safety, an evaluation instrument was applied twice in 1927 food service establishments from 26 cities before the start of the competition. This instrument generated a food safety score for each establishment that ranged from 0.0 (no flaws observed) to 2565.95, with four possible grades: A (0.0–13.2); B (13.3–502.6); C (502.7–1152.2); and pending (more than 1152.3). Each food service received a stamp with the grade of the second evaluation. After the end of the World Cup, a study was conducted with different groups of the public to evaluate the acceptance of the strategy. To this end, 221 consumers, 998 food service owners or managers, 150 health surveillance auditors, and 27 health surveillance coordinators were enrolled. These participants completed a survey with positive and negative responses about the inspection score system through a 5-point Likert scale. A reduction in violation scores from 393.1 to 224.4 (p < 0.001) was observed between the first and second evaluation cycles. Of the food services evaluated, 38.7% received the A stamp, 41.4% the B stamp, and 13.9% the C stamp. All positive responses on “system reliability” presented a mean of 4.0 or more, indicating that the public believed this strategy is reliable for communicating risks and promoting food safety. The strategy showed positive results regarding food safety and public acceptance. The deployed strategy promoted improvements in the food safety of food services. The implementation of a permanent policy may be well accepted by the public and may greatly
da Cunha, Diogo T; Saccol, Ana L de Freitas; Tondo, Eduardo C; de Oliveira, Ana B A; Ginani, Veronica C; Araújo, Carolina V; Lima, Thalita A S; de Castro, Angela K F; Stedefeldt, Elke
In 2014, Brazil hosted one of the most popular sport competitions in the world, the FIFA World Cup. Concerned about the intense migration of tourists, the Brazilian government decided to deploy a food safety strategy based on inspection scores and a grading system applied to food services. The present study aimed to evaluate the results of the food safety strategy deployed during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. To assess food safety, an evaluation instrument was applied twice in 1927 food service establishments from 26 cities before the start of the competition. This instrument generated a food safety score for each establishment that ranged from 0.0 (no flaws observed) to 2565.95, with four possible grades: A (0.0-13.2); B (13.3-502.6); C (502.7-1152.2); and pending (more than 1152.3). Each food service received a stamp with the grade of the second evaluation. After the end of the World Cup, a study was conducted with different groups of the public to evaluate the acceptance of the strategy. To this end, 221 consumers, 998 food service owners or managers, 150 health surveillance auditors, and 27 health surveillance coordinators were enrolled. These participants completed a survey with positive and negative responses about the inspection score system through a 5-point Likert scale. A reduction in violation scores from 393.1 to 224.4 (p < 0.001) was observed between the first and second evaluation cycles. Of the food services evaluated, 38.7% received the A stamp, 41.4% the B stamp, and 13.9% the C stamp. All positive responses on "system reliability" presented a mean of 4.0 or more, indicating that the public believed this strategy is reliable for communicating risks and promoting food safety. The strategy showed positive results regarding food safety and public acceptance. The deployed strategy promoted improvements in the food safety of food services. The implementation of a permanent policy may be well accepted by the public and may greatly contribute to a
Lluis-Ganella, Carla; Subirana, Isaac; Lucas, Gavin; Tomás, Marta; Muñoz, Daniel; Sentí, Mariano; Salas, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Ramos, Rafel; Ordovas, Jose M; Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto
Background The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS improves the predictive capacity of the Framingham risk function. Methods and results Using eight genetic variants associated with CHD but not with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), we generated a multi-locus GRS, and found it to be linearly associated with CHD in two population based cohorts: The REGICOR Study (n=2,351) and The Framingham Heart Study (n=3,537) (meta-analyzed HR [95%CI]: ~1.13 [1.01–1.27], per unit). Inclusion of the GRS in the Framingham risk function improved its discriminative capacity in the Framingham sample (c-statistic: 72.81 vs.72.37, p=0.042) but not in the REGICOR sample. According to both the net reclassification improvement (NRI) index and the integrated discrimination index (IDI), the GRS improved re-classification among individuals with intermediate coronary risk (meta-analysis NRI [95%CI]: 17.44 [8.04; 26.83]), but not overall. Conclusions A multi-locus GRS based on genetic variants unrelated to CVRFs was associated with a linear increase in risk of CHD events in two distinct populations. This GRS improves risk reclassification particularly in the population at intermediate coronary risk. These results indicate the potential value of the inclusion of genetic information in classical functions for risk assessment in the intermediate risk population group. PMID:22521901
Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng
Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend <0.05). The prevalence of high risk of CHD increased with daytime napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.
Iodinated Contrast Medium Exposure During Computed Tomography Increase the Risk of Subsequent Development of Thyroid Disorders in Patients Without Known Thyroid Disease: A Nationwide Population-Based, Propensity Score-Matched, Longitudinal Follow-Up Study.
Hsieh, Ming-Shun; Chiu, Chien-Shan; Chen, Wen-Chi; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Lin, Shih-Yi; Lin, Meng-Yu; Chang, Shih-Liang; Sheu, Meei-Ling; Hu, Sung-Yuan
To investigate the association between iodinated contrast medium (ICM) exposure during computed tomography (CT) and the subsequent development of thyroid disorders in patients without known thyroid disease in Taiwan, an iodine-sufficient area. We conducted a population-based cohort study by using data from 1996 to 2012 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 33,426 patients who underwent ICM-enhanced CT were included as the study cohort. To avoid selection bias, we used propensity score and matched for the index year (defined as the year of first ICM exposure) to retrieve 33,426 patients as the comparison cohort. No patients in the 2 cohorts had any known thyroid disease before the index year. Patients with a history of amiodarone treatment or coronary angiography and those with <1 year follow-up were excluded. Participants were followed until a new diagnosis of thyroid disorder or December 31, 2011. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards regression. An association was identified between ICM exposure and the subsequent development of thyroid disorders after adjustment for potential confounders (adjusted HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.07-1.29; P = 0.001). Male patients and patients' ages ≥40 years in the ICM-exposure cohort had a higher adjusted HR for developing thyroid disorders than did those in the non-ICM-exposure cohort. Hypothyroidism had the highest adjusted HR (HR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.06-1.78; P < 0.05) among all thyroid disorders and had a higher risk of development or detection during >0.5-year post-ICM exposure compared with that during ≤0.5-year post-ICM exposure (HR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.01-1.58; P < 0.05). Repeated ICM exposure increased the risk of thyroid disorders in patients who accepted >1 time of ICM per year on average compared with those who accepted ≤1 time per year on average (adjusted HR = 3.04; 95% CI: 2.47-3.73; P < 0
Szulkin, Robert; Whitington, Thomas; Eklund, Martin; Aly, Markus; Eeles, Rosalind A; Easton, Douglas; Kote-Jarai, Z Sofia; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Benlloch, Sara; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham G; Southey, Melissa C; Fitzgerald, Liesel M; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Haiman, Christopher A; Schleutker, Johanna; Wahlfors, Tiina; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Key, Tim J; Travis, Ruth C; Neal, David E; Donovan, Jenny L; Hamdy, Freddie C; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L; Thibodeau, Stephen N; McDonnell, Shannon K; Schaid, Daniel J; Maier, Christiane; Vogel, Walther; Luedeke, Manuel; Herkommer, Kathleen; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Lubiński, Jan; Kluźniak, Wojciech; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Butterbach, Katja; Stegmaier, Christa; Park, Jong Y; Sellers, Thomas; Lin, Hui-Yi; Lim, Hui-Yi; Slavov, Chavdar; Kaneva, Radka; Mitev, Vanio; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith A; Spurdle, Amanda; Teixeira, Manuel R; Paulo, Paula; Maia, Sofia; Pandha, Hardev; Michael, Agnieszka; Kierzek, Andrzej; Gronberg, Henrik; Wiklund, Fredrik
Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Soni, Jamil Faissal; Valenza, Weverley Rubele; Ueda, Wellington Keity; Schelle, Gisele Cristine; Costa, Anna Carolina Pavelec; Ferraz Faria, Fernando
To determine the application of the modified Oxford score among patients with proximal femoral epiphyseal slippage (PFES) as an aid to indicating prophylactic surgical treatment on the contralateral hip. Retrospective analysis on the medical files of patients attended at the institution where the authors work. From these, patients attended between 2008 and 2011 who presented unilateral PFES and were followed up for a minimum of two years were selected. Patients were excluded if they presented endocrine disease, metabolic disease, Down syndrome or radiographs that were inadequate for determining the modified Oxford score. The initial radiographs received scores ranging from 16 to 26. Statistical analysis was used to determine whether the scoring was predictive of future development of contralateral slippage. Among the 15 patients with unilateral PFES that were selected, five (33.3%) evolved with contralateral slippage. The patients were divided into two groups. Four patients were considered to present risk and three of them developed contralateral slippage. In the group that was considered not to present risk, there were 11 patients and two of these evolved with contralateral slippage. Thus, there was a tendency for the patients in the group that developed the disease to differ from the group that did not develop it, in relation to the risk classification. Although application of the modified Oxford score was not statistically significant in our sample, we noted a tendency toward contralateral slippage among hips with low scores.
Ginghina, C; Bejan, I; Ceck, C D
The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information.
Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M
The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.
Timóteo, Ana Teresa; Aguiar Rosa, Sílvia; Afonso Nogueira, Marta; Belo, Adriana; Cruz Ferreira, Rui
There are barriers to proper implementation of risk stratification scores in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), including their complexity. Our objective was to develop a simple score for risk stratification of all-cause in-hospital mortality in a population of patients with ACS. The score was developed from a nationwide ACS registry. The development and internal validation cohorts were obtained from the first 31829 patients, randomly separated (60% and 40%, respectively). The external validation cohort consisted of the last 8586 patients included in the registry. This cohort is significantly different from the other cohorts in terms of baseline characteristics, treatment and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to select four variables with the highest predictive potential. A score was allocated to each parameter based on the regression coefficient of each variable in the logistic regression model: 1 point for systolic blood pressure ≤116 mmHg, Killip class 2 or 3, and ST-segment elevation; 2 points for age ≥72 years; and 3 points for Killip class 4. The new score had good discriminative ability in the development cohort (area under the curve [AUC] 0.796), and it was similar in the internal validation cohort (AUC 0.785, p=0.333). In the external validation cohort, there was also excellent discriminative ability (AUC 0.815), with an adequate fit. The ProACS risk score enables easy and simple risk stratification of patients with ACS for in-hospital mortality that can be used at the first medical contact, with excellent predictive ability in a contemporary population. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Rao, Aparna; Padhy, Debananda; Sarangi, Sarada; Das, Gopinath
Purpose To evaluate the angle closure scoring system (ACSS) for stratifying primary angle course disease. Methods This observational cross sectional institutional study included patients with primary open angle glaucoma suspects (n = 21) and primary angle closure disease (primary angle closure, PAC, n = 63 and primary angle course glaucoma, PACG, n = 58 (defined by International society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology, ISGEO). Two independent examiners blinded to clinical details, graded good quality pre-laser goniophotographs of the patients incorporating quadrants of peripheral anterior synechieae (PAS), non-visibility of posterior trabecular meshwork (PTM) and blotchy pigments (ranging from 1–4 quadrants), iris configuration, angle recess (sum of above depicting ACSSg) and lens thickness/axial length ratio (LT/AL), cup disc ratio and baseline intraocular pressure (IOP) to give total score (ACSSt). Result There were significant differences in ACSSg scores within the same ISGEO stage of PAC and PACG between eyes that required nil or >1medicines after laser iridotomy, p<0.001. The ACSSg was associated with need for >1 medicines in both PAC and PACG eyes, p<0.001. An ACSSg score>12 and 14 in PAC (odds ratio = 2.7(95% CI-1.7–5.9) and PACG (Odds ratio = 1.6(95%CI-1.19–2.2) predicted need for single medicines while ACSSg scores >14 and 19 predicted need for ≥2 medicines in PAC and PACG eyes, respectively. The LT/Al ratio, IOP score or cup disc score did not influence the need for medical treatment independently. Conclusion The ACSS can be a useful clinical adjunct to the ISGEO system to predict need for medicines and prognosticate each stage more accurately. PMID:27788183
Rao, Aparna; Padhy, Debananda; Sarangi, Sarada; Das, Gopinath
To evaluate the angle closure scoring system (ACSS) for stratifying primary angle course disease. This observational cross sectional institutional study included patients with primary open angle glaucoma suspects (n = 21) and primary angle closure disease (primary angle closure, PAC, n = 63 and primary angle course glaucoma, PACG, n = 58 (defined by International society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology, ISGEO). Two independent examiners blinded to clinical details, graded good quality pre-laser goniophotographs of the patients incorporating quadrants of peripheral anterior synechieae (PAS), non-visibility of posterior trabecular meshwork (PTM) and blotchy pigments (ranging from 1-4 quadrants), iris configuration, angle recess (sum of above depicting ACSSg) and lens thickness/axial length ratio (LT/AL), cup disc ratio and baseline intraocular pressure (IOP) to give total score (ACSSt). There were significant differences in ACSSg scores within the same ISGEO stage of PAC and PACG between eyes that required nil or >1medicines after laser iridotomy, p<0.001. The ACSSg was associated with need for >1 medicines in both PAC and PACG eyes, p<0.001. An ACSSg score>12 and 14 in PAC (odds ratio = 2.7(95% CI-1.7-5.9) and PACG (Odds ratio = 1.6(95%CI-1.19-2.2) predicted need for single medicines while ACSSg scores >14 and 19 predicted need for ≥2 medicines in PAC and PACG eyes, respectively. The LT/Al ratio, IOP score or cup disc score did not influence the need for medical treatment independently. The ACSS can be a useful clinical adjunct to the ISGEO system to predict need for medicines and prognosticate each stage more accurately.
Joseph, Philip G; Pare, Guillaume; Asma, Senay; Engert, James C; Yusuf, Salim; Anand, Sonia S
Myocardial infarction (MI) risk varies by ethnicity, although the influence of genetic factors remains unclear. Using a genetic risk score (GRS), we examined the association between 25 coronary artery disease (CAD)-related single nucleotide polymorphisms and MI across 6 ethnic groups. We studied 8556 participants in the INTERHEART case-control study from 6 ethnic groups: Europeans, South Asians, Southeast Asians, Arabs, Latin Americans, and Africans. Associations between the GRS and MI were tested in each group by logistic regression and overall by meta-analysis. Overall, the GRS increased the odds of MI by 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.09) per risk allele in the unadjusted model, with little change (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09) after adjusting for demographic and modifiable factors. In Europeans, South Asians, Southeast Asians, and Arabs, the GRS was significantly associated with MI, with minimal heterogeneity observed. In these groups, a score > 23 risk alleles (highest 4 quintiles) was associated with only a 5% difference in population attributable risk (PAR) (36% to 41%) for MI. The GRS was not significant in Latin Americans or Africans. In the overall cohort, modest changes, beyond clinical factors, in PAR (88% to 91%), concordance statistic (0.73 to 0.74), and continuous net reclassification improvement (12%) were observed with the GRS. A CAD GRS is associated with MI across a multiethnic cohort, with significant and consistent effects across 4 distinct ethnicities. However, it only modestly improves MI risk prediction beyond clinical factors. Copyright Â© 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Schuetz, Philipp; Huber, Andreas; Müller, Beat; Maisano, Francesco; Taramasso, Maurizio; Moarof, Igal; Obeid, Slayman; Stähli, Barbara E.; Cahenzly, Martin; Binder, Ronald K.; Liebetrau, Christoph; Möllmann, Helge; Kim, Won-Keun; Hamm, Christian; Lüscher, Thomas F.
Background Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population. Objectives We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population. Methods We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. Conclusions Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis. PMID
Adragao, Teresa; Pires, Ana; Lucas, Carlos; Birne, Rita; Magalhaes, Luís; Gonçalves, Margarida; Negrao, Acácio Pita
Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are highly prevalent in haemodialysis (HD) patients and have been recently associated with vascular calcifications. The objective of our study was to assess the value of a simple vascular calcification score for the prediction of cardiovascular death, cardiovascular hospitalizations and fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in HD patients, and to correlate this score with cardiovascular disease and with other known predictors of vascular disease. In this observational, prospective study 123 chronic HD patients (75 males and 48 females; 20% diabetic) were included, who were on low-flux HD treatment for 46.6+/-52 months (mean+/-SD). We set up a simple vascular calcification score based on plain radiographic films of pelvis and hands. Brachial pulse pressure and mean arterial pressure (MAP) were measured and cardiovascular events and hospitalization episodes were assessed. During an observational period of 37 months there were 17 cardiovascular deaths; 28 patients needed cardiovascular hospitalizations and 32 patients suffered fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Coronary artery disease was diagnosed in 43 patients (35%), peripheral arterial disease in 33 patients (26.8%), cerebrovascular disease in 16 patients (13%) and vascular disease (coronary artery disease or peripheral arterial disease or cerebral vascular disease) in 61 patients (49.6%). By binary logistic regression, diabetes (P = 0.01), male sex (P<0.001), age (P = 0.02), HD duration (P = 0.02) and MAP (P = 0.03) were independently associated with a vascular score > or =3. This score > or =3 was independently associated with coronary artery disease (P = 0.008), peripheral arterial disease (P<0.001) and vascular disease (P = 0.001). Patients with a vascular calcification score > or =3 had a 3.9-fold higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (P = 0.03), a 2.8-fold higher risk of cardiovascular hospitalizations (P = 0.02) and a 2.3-fold higher risk of fatal or non
Loomba, Rohit S; Raskin, Alexander; Gudausky, Todd M; Kirkpatrick, Edward
Early treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is necessary to help reduce the risk of coronary artery abnormalities, such as coronary artery aneurysms and to help alleviate symptoms, in Kawasaki disease. Some patients, however, do not respond to an initial dose of IVIG and require additional doses. Prediction of these IVIG nonresponders may be of assistance in altering initial therapy to make it more effective. The Egami score has been validated in the Japanese population to predict IVIG nonresponders but has shown to be ineffective in US populations. This study evaluates the Egami score in a Midwest US population, subdividing patients by race and the diagnosis of typical or atypical type of Kawasaki disease. Patients were included in the study if they met criteria for Kawasaki disease and received IVIG in the inpatient setting. A total of 182 patients were studied, and in all studied groups, the Egami score had poor sensitivity at predicting IVIG nonresponders. Sensitivity of the score differed between races and differed between typical and atypical Kawasaki disease. The Egami score, as well as other systems, have been validated to predict IVIG nonresponders. These, however, lack sensitivity in the US population. Other scores developed in the United States have also lacked sensitivity, likely due to the absence of race or Kawasaki disease classification as variables. The development of a sensitive scoring system to predict IVIG nonresponders in US populations will require the incorporation of race and Kawasaki disease classification, factors that seem to alter IVIG response.
Gariglio, Luis; Riviere, Stephanie; Morales, Analía; Porcile, Rafael; Potenzoni, Miguel; Fridman, Osvaldo
The Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score is an important clinical tool. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to compare plasma homocysteine levels and polymorphism 677CT MTHFR with this score to determine the utility of these new biomarkers in clinical practice. Plasma homocysteine levels determined by chemiluminescence and polymorphism 677CT MTHFR, detected by PCR-RFLP, were compared with Framingham coronary risk score in a cross-sectional survey on 68 men and 165 women. Coronary heart disease risk augmented with an increase in the quartile of plasma homocysteine. In the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quartile of plasma homocysteine, men showed significantly (P<0.001) higher risk than women. For the highest quartile of plasma homocysteine, OR of high-risk (10-year risk≥20%) compared with the lowest quartile was 17.45 (95% CI: 5.79-52.01). Frequencies of CT and TT genotype and T allele were not over-represented in the individuals with score≥10%. The higher plasma homocysteine concentrations in individuals with score≥10% with respect to those with low risk (P<0.005 and P<0.001) were not due to the presence of T allele. The T allele (CT+TT genotypes) of the MTHFR C677T polymorphism was not significantly associated with an increased risk of coronary disease (OR=1.09, 95% CI=0.50-2.39, P=0.844). The present study demonstrated an association between plasma homocysteine levels and the severity of coronary heart disease estimated with the Framingham coronary risk score, and this association appeared to be independent on the genotype of MTHFR. We postulate that plasma homocysteine is effective enough, considered even in isolation. Copyright © 2013 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.
White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar
Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.
Panzuto, Francesco; Merola, Elettra; Pavel, Marianne Ellen; Rinke, Anja; Kump, Patrizia; Partelli, Stefano; Rinzivillo, Maria; Rodriguez-Laval, Victor; Pape, Ulrich Frank; Lipp, Rainer; Gress, Thomas; Wiedenmann, Bertram; Falconi, Massimo; Delle Fave, Gianfranco
Several risk factors predict clinical outcome in gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs); however, the impact of their combination has not been investigated so far. A retrospective analysis of stage IV GEP-NENs was performed. Multivariate analysis for progression of disease (PD) was performed by Cox proportional hazards method to obtain a risk score. Area under the curve obtained by receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to assess the score performance. Progression-free survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method. Two hundred eighty-three stage IV GEP-NENs were evaluated, including 93 grade 1 neuroendocrine tumors (32.9%), 153 grade 2 neuroendocrine tumors (54%), and 37 grade 3 neuroendocrine carcinomas (13.1%). Independent risk factors for PD were Ki67, proportion of metastatic liver involvement, and presence of extra-abdominal metastases. The risk score was calculated as follows: (0.025 × Ki67) + [(0 if no liver metastases or liver involvement <25%) OR (0.405 if liver involvement 25%-50%) OR (0.462 if liver involvement >50%)] + [(0 if no extra-abdominal metastases) OR (0.528 if extra-abdominal metastases present)]. The risk score accuracy to predict PD was superior compared with the G grading system (area under the curve: 0.705 and 0.622, respectively). Three subgroups of patients with low, intermediate, and high risk of PD according to risk score were identified, median progression-free survival being 26 months, 19 months, and 12 months, respectively. In stage IV GEP-NENs, a risk score able to predict PD was obtained by combining Ki67, proportion of metastatic liver involvement, and presence of extra-abdominal metastases. The score may help to discriminate patients with different progression risk level to plan tailored therapeutic approaches and follow-up programs. The Oncologist 2017;22:409-415Implications for Practice: Clinical outcome of patients with advanced gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine
Choi, Won-ik; Jeong, You Cheol; Kim, Sun Young; Kim, So Dam; Pribis, John Paul; Kim, Hee-Jin; Koh, Kyung-Nam; Im, Ho-Joon; Lee, Young-Ho
Background The clinical presentation and course of Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) are variable, ranging from an isolated, spontaneously remitting bone lesion to multisystem disease with risk organ involvement. Treatment of LCH ranges from a wait-and-see attitude to intensive multidrug therapy and, in some cases, bone marrow transplantation. It is necessary to develop an objective score for assessing disease activity in patients with LCH. We propose a new clinical scoring system to evaluate disease activity at diagnosis that can predict the clinical outcomes of LCH and correlate it with clinical courses. Methods Clinical data, obtained from children diagnosed with LCH at Asan Medical Center and Hanyang University Hospital between March 1998 and February 2009, were studied retrospectively. The scoring system was developed according to the basic biological data, radiological findings, and physical findings and applied to a database containing information on 133 patients. Results The median age of the 133 patients (74 male, 59 female) was 52 months (range, 0.6-178 months), and LCH was diagnosed based on CD1a positivity. At diagnosis, the score distributions were highly asymmetrical: the score was between 1 and 2 in 75.9% of cases, 3-6 in 15.8%, and greater than 6 in 8.3%. Initial scores above 6 were highly predictive of reactivation and late complications. Conclusion This new LCH disease activity score provides an objective tool for assessing disease severity, both at diagnosis and during follow-up. PMID:22065974
Morris, D R; Singh, T P; Moxon, J V; Smith, A; Stewart, F; Jones, R E; Golledge, J
Angiography is used routinely in the assessment of lower-limb arteries, but there are few well validated angiographic scoring systems. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a novel angiographic scoring system for peripheral artery disease. An angiographic scoring system (the ANGIO score) was developed and applied to a sample of patients from a single vascular surgical department who underwent CT angiography of the lower limbs. The reproducibility of the ANGIO score was compared with those of the Bollinger and Trans-Atlantic inter-Society Consensus (TASC) IIb systems in a series of randomly selected patients. Associations between the ANGIO score and lower-limb ischaemia, as measured by the ankle : brachial pressure index (ABPI), and outcome events (major lower-limb amputations and cardiovascular events - myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular death) were assessed. Some 256 patients undergoing CT angiography were included. The interobserver reproducibility of the ANGIO score was better than that of the other scoring systems examined (κ = 0·90, P = 0·002). There was a negative correlation between the ANGIO score and ABPI (ρ = -0·33, P = 0·008). A higher ANGIO score was associated with an increased risk of major lower-limb amputation (hazard ratio (HR) for highest versus lowest tertile 9·30, 95 per cent c.i. 1·95 to 44·38; P = 0·005) and cardiovascular events (HR 2·73, 1·31 to 5·70; P = 0·007) following adjustment for established risk factors. The ANGIO score provided a reproducible and valid assessment of the severity of lower-limb ischaemia and risk of major amputation and cardiovascular events in these patients with peripheral artery disease. © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Background Whole exome sequencing studies identify hundreds to thousands of rare protein coding variants of ambiguous significance for human health. Computational tools are needed to accelerate the identification of specific variants and genes that contribute to human disease. Results We have developed the Variant Effect Scoring Tool (VEST), a supervised machine learning-based classifier, to prioritize rare missense variants with likely involvement in human disease. The VEST classifier training set comprised ~ 45,000 disease mutations from the latest Human Gene Mutation Database release and another ~45,000 high frequency (allele frequency >1%) putatively neutral missense variants from the Exome Sequencing Project. VEST outperforms some of the most popular methods for prioritizing missense variants in carefully designed holdout benchmarking experiments (VEST ROC AUC = 0.91, PolyPhen2 ROC AUC = 0.86, SIFT4.0 ROC AUC = 0.84). VEST estimates variant score p-values against a null distribution of VEST scores for neutral variants not included in the VEST training set. These p-values can be aggregated at the gene level across multiple disease exomes to rank genes for probable disease involvement. We tested the ability of an aggregate VEST gene score to identify candidate Mendelian disease genes, based on whole-exome sequencing of a small number of disease cases. We used whole-exome data for two Mendelian disorders for which the causal gene is known. Considering only genes that contained variants in all cases, the VEST gene score ranked dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) number 2 of 2253 genes in four cases of Miller syndrome, and myosin-3 (MYH3) number 2 of 2313 genes in three cases of Freeman Sheldon syndrome. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the potential power gain of aggregating bioinformatics variant scores into gene-level scores and the general utility of bioinformatics in assisting the search for disease genes in large-scale exome sequencing studies. VEST is
Guo, Weihong; Zhang, Qinming; Chen, Yongwei; Hou, Dawei
Eighty to ninety percent of Hirschsprung's disease (HD) patients present in newborns. However, the diagnosis of HD in the neonatal period remains difficult. Our present study aims to propose a diagnostic scoring system and hope this will increase early diagnosis of HD and avoid unnecessary rectal biopsy. In the first study period, 57 suspected HD patients (0-3 months) completed our predetermined study protocol in which barium enema (BE), rectal manometry (RM) and full-thickness rectal biopsy were performed. Symptoms, signs and investigations were analysed for their correlation with HD diagnosis. A HD diagnostic scoring system was developed according to the statistical results and was assessed in 74 patients in the second study period. Forty-five patients were diagnosed with HD in the first study period. A HD scoring system was developed in which delayed meconium, tight anus, BE and RM were diagnostic factors. A cut-off point of 3 provided 84% of HD patients score >3, whereas 75% non-HD patients score
The aim of the present study has been to critically review 22 disease scoring systems (DSSs) on oral lichen planus (OLP) that have been reported in the literature during the past decades. Although the presently available DSSs may all have some merit, particularly for research purposes, the diversity of both the objective and subjective parameters used in these systems and the lack of acceptance of one of these systems for uniform use, there is a need for an international, authorized consensus meeting on this subject. Because of the natural course of OLP characterized by remissions and exacerbations and also due to the varying distribution pattern and the varying clinical types, e.g. reticular and erosive, the relevance of a DSS based on morphologic parameters is somewhat questionable. Instead, one may consider to only look for a quality of life scoring system adapted for use in OLP patients. Key words:Oral lichen planus, disease scoring system, classification. PMID:25681372
Lee, Ji-Eun; Almanza, Barbara A; Nelson, Douglas C; Ghiselli, Richard F
This study gathered health inspectors' opinions about appropriate weightings of critical, noncritical, and repeat violations under the current food inspection system, and developed a classification of violations for high-, medium-, and low-risk restaurants. Results showed that health inspectors thought that the appropriate weights were five points for a critical violation, one point for a noncritical violation, and double points for a repeat violation. In addition, health inspectors thought that the maximum numbers of critical violations for a high-, medium-, and low-risk category were 2.05, 3.02, and 4.83, respectively, and for noncritical violations, 4.59, 7.30, and 10.37, respectively. A paired t-test was used to compare these values with estimations based on the traditional health inspection scoring system. Results indicate that the maximum number of critical violations for medium risk and maximum numbers of noncritical violations for low-, medium-, or high-risk restaurants were significantly different between health inspectors' opinions and mathematical estimations. Health inspectors appear to be stricter than the traditional health inspection scoring system about violations, particularly repeat violations, and their importance in enforcement of food safety.
Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary
We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Irvine, Katharine M; Wockner, Leesa F; Shanker, Mihir; Fagan, Kevin J; Horsfall, Leigh U; Fletcher, Linda M; Ungerer, Jacobus P J; Pretorius, Carel J; Miller, Gregory C; Clouston, Andrew D; Lampe, Guy; Powell, Elizabeth E
Current tools for risk stratification of chronic liver disease subjects are limited. We aimed to determine whether the serum-based ELF (Enhanced Liver Fibrosis) test predicted liver-related clinical outcomes, or progression to advanced liver disease, and to compare the performance of ELF to liver biopsy and non-invasive algorithms. Three hundred patients with ELF scores assayed at the time of liver biopsy were followed up (median 6.1 years) for liver-related clinical outcomes (n = 16) and clear evidence of progression to advanced fibrosis (n = 18), by review of medical records and clinical data. Fourteen of 73 (19.2%) patients with ELF score indicative of advanced fibrosis (≥9.8, the manufacturer's cut-off) had a liver-related clinical outcome, compared to only two of 227 (<1%) patients with ELF score <9.8. In contrast, the simple scores APRI and FIB-4 would only have predicted subsequent decompensation in six and four patients respectively. A unit increase in ELF score was associated with a 2.53-fold increased risk of a liver-related event (adjusted for age and stage of fibrosis). In patients without advanced fibrosis on biopsy at recruitment, 55% (10/18) with an ELF score ≥9.8 showed clear evidence of progression to advanced fibrosis (after an average 6 years), whereas only 3.5% of those with an ELF score <9.8 (8/207) progressed (average 14 years). In these subjects, a unit increase in ELF score was associated with a 4.34-fold increased risk of progression. The ELF score is a valuable tool for risk stratification of patients with chronic liver disease. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Yarwood, Annie; Han, Buhm; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Bowes, John; Lunt, Mark; Pappas, Dimitrios A; Kremer, Joel; Greenberg, Jeffrey D; Plenge, Robert; Worthington, Jane; Barton, Anne; Eyre, Steve
Background There is currently great interest in the incorporation of genetic susceptibility loci into screening models to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Here, we present the first risk prediction model including all 46 known genetic loci associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was created using 45 RA non-human leucocyte antigen (HLA) susceptibility loci, imputed amino acids at HLA-DRB1 (11, 71 and 74), HLA-DPB1 (position 9) HLA-B (position 9) and gender. The wGRS was tested in 11 366 RA cases and 15 489 healthy controls. The risk of developing RA was estimated using logistic regression by dividing the wGRS into quintiles. The ability of the wGRS to discriminate between cases and controls was assessed by receiver operator characteristic analysis and discrimination improvement tests. Results Individuals in the highest risk group showed significantly increased odds of developing anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide-positive RA compared to the lowest risk group (OR 27.13, 95% CI 23.70 to 31.05). The wGRS was validated in an independent cohort that showed similar results (area under the curve 0.78, OR 18.00, 95% CI 13.67 to 23.71). Comparison of the full wGRS with a wGRS in which HLA amino acids were replaced by a HLA tag single-nucleotide polymorphism showed a significant loss of sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions Our study suggests that in RA, even when using all known genetic susceptibility variants, prediction performance remains modest; while this is insufficiently accurate for general population screening, it may prove of more use in targeted studies. Our study has also highlighted the importance of including HLA variation in risk prediction models. PMID:24092415
Fu, Qiang; Moul, Judd W; Bañez, Lionel L; Sun, Leon; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Xie, Dongha; Polascik, Thomas J
To find the predictors of Gleason score upgrading in a cohort of low-risk prostate cancer patients, data were analyzed comprising 1,632 consecutive men with low-risk prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy between 1993 and 2009. Assessment focused on preoperative parameters including patient age, race, diagnostic prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, clinical stage and biopsy Gleason score, along with pathological parameters including percentage of tumor involvement (PTI), tumor laterality, pathological stage, extra-capsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion, and surgical margins. These parameters were analyzed using univariate and multivariate methods. Kaplan-Meier curves compared differences in biochemical disease-free survival in men having cancers with and without Gleason score upgrading. Cases involving pathological Gleason score upgrading were identified in 723 (44.3 %) of 1,632 patients. Kaplan-Meier PSA recurrence-free survival curves showed a difference in outcome between men with and without Gleason score upgrading (p < 0.001). Of Gleason score upgraded patients, 35 (4.8 %) men had PTI of <5 %, 237 (32.8 %) had PTI of 5-9.9 %, 177 (24.5 %) had PTI of 10-14.9 %, and 274 (37.9 %) had PTI ≥ 15 % (p < 0.001). PTI (p < 0.001) along with diagnostic PSA, patient age, diagnostic biopsy Gleason score, pathologic stage, and surgical margin status were independent predictors of pathological Gleason score upgrading on multivariate logistic regression. PTI correlates closely with Gleason score upgrading in a low-risk prostate cancer cohort. Low-risk prostate cancer patients with clinical findings suggestive of high PTI or large volume cancers should not benefit from active surveillance strategies.
Hadjianastassiou, Vassilis G; Tekkis, Paris P; Poloniecki, Jan D; Gavalas, Manolis C; Goldhill, David R
Existing methods of risk adjustment in surgical audit are complex and costly. The present study aimed to develop a simple risk stratification score for mortality and a robust audit tool using the existing resources of the hospital Patient Administration System (PAS) database. This was an observational study for all patients undergoing surgical procedures over a two-year period, at a London university hospital. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictive factors of in-hospital mortality, the study outcome. Odds ratios were used as weights in the derivation of a simple risk-stratification model-the Surgical Mortality Score (SMS). Observed-to-expected mortality risk ratios were calculated for application of the SMS model in surgical audit. There were 11,089 eligible cases, under five surgical specialties (maxillofacial, orthopedic, renal transplant/dialysis, general, and neurosurgery). Incomplete data were 3.7% of the total, with no evidence of systematic underreporting. The SMS model was well calibrated [Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic: development set (3.432, p = 0.33), validation set (6.359, p = 0.10) with a high discriminant ability (ROC areas: development set [0.837, S.E.=0.013] validation set [0.816, S.E. = 0.016]). Subgroup analyses confirmed that the model can be used by the individual specialties for both elective and emergency cases. The SMS is an accurate risk- stratification model derived from existing database resources. It is simple to apply as a risk-management, screening tool to detect aberrations from expected surgical outcomes and to assist in surgical audit.
Matthews, Karen A.; Strollo, Patrick J.; Hall, Martica; Mezick, Elizabeth J.; Kamarck, Thomas W.; Owens, Jane F.; Buysse, Daniel J.; Reis, Steven E.
Background: Short and less efficient sleep may be risk factors for atherosclerosis. Few studies have investigated the associations between sleep characteristics and early cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Objective: Evaluate the associations between coronary artery calcification (CAC) and Framingham risk score profile with sleep characteristics in middle-aged men and women with no history of diagnosed myocardial infarction, interventional cardiology procedures, stroke, diabetes, or sleep disorders. Method: 224 participants enrolled in an epidemiological study of disparities in CVD risk were recruited for a 9-night assessment of sleep, with 2 nights of polysomnography (PSG) and 9 nights of actigraphy and sleep diaries. Of the 224 participants, 110 had high/moderate Framingham risk scores and 114 had low scores; 195 had computed tomography measures of CAC. Results: Individuals who had any CAC or higher Framingham risk scores had elevated apnea/hypopnea index (AHI) values, independent of age, race, and gender. The AHI association with CAC was nonsignificant in analyses adjusting for body mass index (BMI). Those with higher Framingham risk score profiles had shorter PSG sleep duration and less percent stage 3-4 and delta power sleep. High blood pressure and left ventricular hypertrophy were related to AHI and sleep duration, independent of BMI. Neither sleep duration nor efficiency was associated with CAC. Conclusions: CAC was not associated with AHI, independent of BMI in a community-based sample of middle-aged men and women. Framingham risk score profiles were related to poor sleep. Sleep duration may not be related to early plaque burden in relatively healthy individuals. Citation: Matthews KA; Strollo PJ; Hall M; Mezick EJ; Kamarck TW; Owens JF; Buysse DJ; Reis SE. Associations of Framingham risk score profile and coronary artery calcification with sleep characteristics in middle-aged men and women: Pittsburgh sleepSCORE study. SLEEP 2011;34(6):711-716. PMID
Brotons, Carlos; Moral, Irene; Fernández, Diana; Cuixart, Lluis; Muñox, Alex; Soteras, Anna; Puig, Mireia; Joaniquet, Xavier; Casasa, Albert
Estimating cardiovascular risk with SCORE is not recommended in persons over 65 years. SCORE investigators have recently published specific tables for older people (SCORE Older Persons [SCORE OP]). The aim of this study is to assess the impact of using SCORE OP tables on a Spanish population aged over 64 years, and compare it with the use of SCORE in patients aged 65-69 years. Cross-sectional study carried out in 2 urban primary health care centres. Individuals between 65 and 85 years old without diabetes or established cardiovascular diseases were included. Cardiovascular risk using SCORE and the new SCORE OP tables for low risk countries was calculated. Cardiovascular risk was estimated in 3,425 patients. Mean values of the original SCORE and SCORE OP were 4.08 and 3.83, respectively in the group of patients aged 65-69 years old (n=974, 22.44%) (P< .001). The percentage of patients at high or very high risk was 25.46% and 22.90% with the original SCORE and the SCORE OP, respectively (P<.001). Using the original SCORE, 16.43% of the total patients should potentially be treated with lipid lowering drugs, while using the SCORE OP, 13.45% of the patients aged 65-69 years should potentially be treated. Using SCORE OP in patients older than 69 years, 61.49% patients should potentially be treated with lipid lowering drugs. SCORE OP identifies fewer patients at high or very high risk than the original SCORE, therefore, its utilization would imply treating fewer patients of this age with lipid lowering drugs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Kassam, Z; Cribb Fabersunne, C; Smith, M B; Alm, E J; Kaplan, G G; Nguyen, G C; Ananthakrishnan, A N
Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile associated risk of death score (CARDS). We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalisations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilised to identify independent predictors of mortality. Clostridium difficile associated risk of death score was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. We identified 77 776 hospitalisations, yielding an estimate of 374 747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the US, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The eight severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from -1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Clostridium difficile associated risk of death score is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalised with C. difficile infection. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Siqueira, Fabio Paiva Rossini; Mesquita, Claudio Tinoco; dos Santos, Alair Augusto Sarmet M. Damas; Nacif, Marcelo Souto
Half the patients with coronary artery disease present with sudden death - or acute infarction as first symptom, making early diagnosis pivotal. Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy is frequently used in the assessment of these patients, but it does not detect the disease without flow restriction, exposes the patient to high levels of radiation and is costly. On the other hand, with less radiological exposure, calcium score is directly correlated to the presence and extension of coronary atherosclerosis, and also to the risk of cardiovascular events. Even though calcium score is a tried-and-true method for stratification of asymptomatic patients, its use is still reduced in this context, since current guidelines are contradictory to its use on symptomatic diseases. The aim of this review is to identify, on patients under investigation for coronary artery disease, the main evidence of the use of calcium score associated with functional evaluation and scintigraphy. PMID:27437867
Gökdeniz, Tayyar; Kalaycıoğlu, Ezgi; Aykan, Ahmet Çağrı; Boyacı, Faruk; Turan, Turhan; Gül, İlker; Çavuşoğlu, Gökhan; Dursun, İhsan
Background Prediction of severity or complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD) is valuable owing to increased risk for cardiovascular events. Although the association between total coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and severity of CAD, Gensini score was not used, it has been previously demonstrated. There is no information about the association between total CAC score and complexity of CAD. Objectives To investigate the association between severity or complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD) assessed by Gensini score and SYNTAX score (SS), respectively, and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, which is a noninvasive method for CAD evaluation in symptomatic patients with accompanying significant CAD. Methods Two-hundred-fourteen patients were enrolled. Total CAC score was obtained before angiography. Severity and complexity of CAD was assessed by Gensini score and SS, respectively. Associations between clinical and angiographic parameters and total CAC score were analyzed. Results Median total CAC score was 192 (23.0-729.8), and this was positively correlated with both Gensini score (r: 0.299, p<0.001) and SS (r: 0.577, p<0.001). At multivariate analysis, it was independently associated with age (ß: 0.154, p: 0.027), male gender (ß: 0.126, p: 0.035) and SS (ß: 0.481, p< 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed a cut-off value > 809 for SS >32 (high SS tertile). Conclusion In symptomatic patients with accompanying significant CAD, total CAC score was independently associated with SS and patients with SS >32 may be detected through high Agatston score. PMID:24676367
Svenvik, Maria; Brudin, Lars; Blomberg, Marie
To determine predictive risk factors for Apgar scores < 7 at 5 minutes at two hospitals providing tertiary care and secondary care, respectively. A retrospective registry cohort study of 21126 births (2006-2010) using data from digital medical records. Risk factors were analyzed by logistic regression analyses. AS(5 min) < 7 was multivariately associated with the following: preterm birth; gestational week 32 + 0-36 + 6, OR = 3.9 (95% CI 2.9-5.3); week 28 + 0-31 + 6, OR = 8 (5-12); week < 28 + 0, OR = 15 (8-29); postterm birth, OR = 2.0 (1.7-2.3); multiple pregnancy, OR = 3.53 (1.79-6.96); previous cesarean section, OR = 3.67 (2.31-5.81); BMI 25-29, OR = 1.30 (1.09-1.55); BMI ≥ 30 OR = 1.70 (1.20-2.41); nonnormal CTG at admission, OR = 1.98 (1.48-2.66). ≥ 1-para was associated with a decreased risk for AS(5 min) < 7, OR = 0.34 (0.25-0.47). In the univariate logistic regression analysis AS(5 min) < 7 was associated with tertiary level care, OR = 1.48 (1.17-1.87); however, in the multivariate analysis there was no significant difference. A number of partially preventable risk factors were identified, preterm birth being the most evident. Further, no significant difference between the two hospital levels regarding the risk for low Apgar scores was detected.
Svenvik, Maria; Brudin, Lars
Objective. To determine predictive risk factors for Apgar scores < 7 at 5 minutes at two hospitals providing tertiary care and secondary care, respectively. Methods. A retrospective registry cohort study of 21126 births (2006–2010) using data from digital medical records. Risk factors were analyzed by logistic regression analyses. Results. AS5min < 7 was multivariately associated with the following: preterm birth; gestational week 32 + 0–36 + 6, OR = 3.9 (95% CI 2.9–5.3); week 28 + 0–31 + 6, OR = 8 (5–12); week < 28 + 0, OR = 15 (8–29); postterm birth, OR = 2.0 (1.7–2.3); multiple pregnancy, OR = 3.53 (1.79–6.96); previous cesarean section, OR = 3.67 (2.31–5.81); BMI 25–29, OR = 1.30 (1.09–1.55); BMI ≥ 30 OR = 1.70 (1.20–2.41); nonnormal CTG at admission, OR = 1.98 (1.48–2.66). ≥1-para was associated with a decreased risk for AS5min < 7, OR = 0.34 (0.25–0.47). In the univariate logistic regression analysis AS5min < 7 was associated with tertiary level care, OR = 1.48 (1.17–1.87); however, in the multivariate analysis there was no significant difference. Conclusion. A number of partially preventable risk factors were identified, preterm birth being the most evident. Further, no significant difference between the two hospital levels regarding the risk for low Apgar scores was detected. PMID:26413554
Dekervel, Jeroen; Popovic, Dusan; van Malenstein, Hannah; Windmolders, Petra; Heylen, Line; Libbrecht, Louis; Bulle, Ashenafi; De Moor, Bart; Van Cutsem, Eric; Nevens, Frederik; Verslype, Chris; van Pelt, Jos
OBJECTIVES: Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma can arise from the primary tumor (“early recurrence”) or de novo from tumor formation in a cirrhotic environment (“late recurrence”). We aimed to develop one simple gene expression score applicable in both the tumor and the surrounding liver that can predict the recurrence risk. METHODS: We determined differentially expressed genes in a cell model of cancer aggressiveness. These genes were first validated in three large published data sets of hepatocellular carcinoma from which we developed a seven-gene risk score. RESULTS: The gene score was applied on two independent large patient cohorts. In the first cohort, with only tumor data available, it could predict the recurrence risk at 3 years after resection (68 ± 10% vs 35 ± 7%, P = .03). In the second cohort, when applied on the tumor, this gene score predicted early recurrence (62 ± 5% vs 37 ± 4%, P < .001), and when applied on the surrounding liver tissue, the same genes also correlated with late recurrence. Four patient classes with each different time patterns and rates of recurrence could be identified based on combining tumor and liver scores. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, our gene score remained significantly associated with recurrence, independent from other important cofactors such as disease stage (P = .007). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a Global Risk Score that is able to simultaneously predict the risk of early recurrence when applied on the tumor itself, as well as the risk of late recurrence when applied on the surrounding liver tissue. PMID:27084430
Brody, Aaron M.; Flack, John M.; Ference, Brian A.; Levy, Phillip D.
Hypertension (HTN) is the primary population-attributable risk for the development of heart failure (HF); a disease with devastating consequences particularly in urban centers where morbidity and mortality are more pronounced. The Framingham Risk Profile (FRP) is widely used to quantify risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but its applicability in an urban population who utilize the emergency department (ED) for primary care is unknown. Our objective for this study is to evaluate FRP scores in ED patients with asymptomatic HTN and subclinical hypertensive heart disease (SHHD). This is a sub study of a prospective randomized clinical trial designed to evaluate optimal blood pressure (BP) targets. Eligible patients were screened with echocardiography for the presence of SHHD and FRP scores were calculated. 149 patients enrolled in the study, 133 (89.2%) of whom had detectable SHHD. Mean [SD] calculated FRP scores were statistically similar for patients with SHHD vs. those without (general CVD: 20.2 [8.5] vs. 15.6 [8.7]; p=0.13 and HF calibrated: 2.4 [1.0] vs. 1.8 [1.0]; p=0.12) corresponding to a calculated risk of 15%–30% for subsequent development of CVD. The HF specific risk score for patients with SHHD was 2.4, which equates to a 2.5% risk of HF development in 10 years. The FRP correctly identified those with SHHD as high-risk for general CVD but appeared to underestimate the likelihood of HF. Recalibration of the HF adjustment factor and inclusion of additional data elements such as echocardiography is needed to enhance applicability of the FRP in this setting. PMID:25062396
... for Heart Disease & Stroke Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke About 1.5 million heart attacks and strokes happen every year in the United States. You ... some of your risks for heart disease and stroke, but you can manage many of your risks ...
van Riel, P L C M
In rheumatoid arthritis, disease activity cannot be measured using a single variable. The Disease Activity Score (DAS) has been developed as a quantitative index to be able to measure, study and manage disease activity in RA in daily clinical practice, clinical trials, and long term observational studies. The DAS is a continuous measure of RA disease activity that combines information from swollen joints, tender joints, acute phase response and patient self-report of general health. Cut points were developed to classify patients in remission, as well as low, moderate, and severe disease activity in the 1990s. DAS-based EULAR response criteria were primarily developed to be used in clinical trials to classify individual patients as non-, moderate, or good responders, depending on the magnitude of change and absolute level of disease activity at the conclusion of the test.
Kiberd, Bryce; Panek, Romuald
Background and objectives: Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and death in kidney transplant recipients. This study examines the Framingham risk score's ability to predict cardiac and stroke events. Because cyclosporine and tacrolimus have different cardiovascular risk profiles, these agents were also examined. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: A prospective cohort evaluation of 540 patients were followed for a median of 4.7 yr in an outpatient kidney transplant clinic. Baseline Framingham risk scores were calculated and all cardiovascular outcomes were collected. Results: Rates per 100 patient-years were 1.79 for cardiac and 0.78 for stroke events. The ratio of observed-to-predicted cardiac events was 1.64-fold higher [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 2.94] for the cohort, 2.74-fold higher (95% CI 1.70 to 4.24) in patients age 45 to 60 with prior cardiac disease or diabetes mellitus, but not higher in other age subgroups. Stroke was not increased above predicted. Risk scores for cardiac (c = 0.65, P = 0.003) and stroke (c = 0.71, P = 0.004) events were modest predictors. 10-yr event scores for cardiac (9.3 versus 13.5%, P < 0.001) and stroke (7.1 versus 10.0%, P = 0.002) were lower for tacrolimus compared with cyclosporine-treated patients. However observed cardiac events were higher in tacrolimus recipients (2.50, 95% CI 1.09 to 5.90) in an adjusted Cox model. Conclusions: Although risk scores are only modest predictors, patients with the highest event rates are easily identified. Treating high-risk patients with cardioprotective medications should remain a priority. PMID:18322053
Tattersall, Matthew C.; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Karmali, Kunal N.; Keevil, Jon G.
Background The Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) is one alternative to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) for cardiovascular risk assessment. The Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) integrated the FRS a decade ago, but with the anticipated release of ATP IV, it remains uncertain how and which risk models will be integrated into the recommendations. We sought to define the effects in the United States population of a transition from the FRS to the RRS for cardiovascular risk assessment. Methods Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, we assessed FRS and RRS in 2,502 subjects representing approximately 53.6 Million (M) men (ages 50–79) and women (ages 45–79), without cardiovascular disease or diabetes. We calculated the proportion reclassified by RRS and the subset whose LDL-C goal achievement changed. Results Compared to FRS, the RRS assigns a higher risk category to 13.9% of women and 9.1% of men while assigning a lower risk to 35.7% of men and 2% of women. Overall, 4.7% of women and 1.1% of men fail to meet newly intensified LDL-C goals using the RRS. Conversely, 10.5% of men and 0.6% of women now meet LDL-C goal using RRS when they had not by FRS. Conclusion In the U.S. population the RRS assigns a new risk category for one in six women and four of nine men. In general, women increase while men decrease risk. In conclusion, adopting the RRS for the 53.6 million eligible U.S. adults would result in intensification of clinical management in 1.6 M additional women and 2.10 M fewer men. PMID:22984495
Afzal, Shaista; Masroor, Imrana; Beg, Madiha
Noninvasive approaches for assessment of liver histology include routine laboratory tests and radiological evaluation. The purpose of our study was to determine the utility of a simplified scoring system based on routinely evaluated ultrasound features for the evaluation of chronic liver disease and correlate it with the histological findings. For this cross-sectional analytical study the data was collected prospectively by nonprobability purposive sampling technique. The ultrasound variables/parameters and their assigned scoring system that was a modified version adopted from published literature were evaluated. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the liver morphological score and combined score of liver morphology and sizes was determined using stage and grade as reference standard. Our results show a high sensitivity and PPV of liver morphological sonographic evaluation for the staging and grading of CLD respectively thus supporting it as a screening diagnostic strategy. Of the three liver morphology variables, specificity of liver surface evaluation was highest for the stage of fibrosis and grade of inflammation. The simplified ultrasound scoring system evaluated in our study is clinically relevant and reproducible for differentiating patients with CLD with mild or no fibrosis from moderate to severe fibrosis.
Afzal, Shaista; Masroor, Imrana; Beg, Madiha
Noninvasive approaches for assessment of liver histology include routine laboratory tests and radiological evaluation. The purpose of our study was to determine the utility of a simplified scoring system based on routinely evaluated ultrasound features for the evaluation of chronic liver disease and correlate it with the histological findings. For this cross-sectional analytical study the data was collected prospectively by nonprobability purposive sampling technique. The ultrasound variables/parameters and their assigned scoring system that was a modified version adopted from published literature were evaluated. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the liver morphological score and combined score of liver morphology and sizes was determined using stage and grade as reference standard. Our results show a high sensitivity and PPV of liver morphological sonographic evaluation for the staging and grading of CLD respectively thus supporting it as a screening diagnostic strategy. Of the three liver morphology variables, specificity of liver surface evaluation was highest for the stage of fibrosis and grade of inflammation. The simplified ultrasound scoring system evaluated in our study is clinically relevant and reproducible for differentiating patients with CLD with mild or no fibrosis from moderate to severe fibrosis. PMID:26464843
Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin
Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.
Arora, Mukta; Hemmer, Michael T.; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Klein, John P.; Cutler, Corey S.; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Couriel, Daniel R.; Alousi, Amin M.; Gale, Robert Peter; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Li, Peigang; Antin, Joseph H.; Bolwell, Brian J.; Boyiadzis, Michael; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell S.; Isola, Luis M.; Jacobsohn, David A.; Jagasia, Madan; Klumpp, Thomas R.; Petersdorf, Effie W.; Santarone, Stella; Schouten, Harry C.; Wingard, John R.; Spellman, Stephen R.; Pavletic, Steven Z.; Lee, Stephanie J.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Flowers, Mary E.D.
We previously reported a risk score that predicted mortality in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (CGVHD) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT) between 1995–2004 and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Registry (CIBMTR). We sought to validate this risk score in an independent CIBMTR cohort of 1128 patients with CGVHD transplanted between 2005–2007 using the same inclusion criteria and risk-score calculations. According to the sum of the overall risk score (range 1 to 12), patients were assigned to 4 risk-groups (RGs): RG1 (0–2), RG2 (3–6), RG3 (7–8) and RG4 (9–10). RG3 and 4 were combined as RG4 comprised only 1% of the total cohort. Cumulative incidences of non relapse mortality (NRM) and probability of overall survival (OS) were significantly different between each RG (all p<0.01). NRM and OS at five years after CGVHD for each RG were 17% and 72% in RG1, 26% and 53% in RG2, and 44% and 25% in RG 3, respectively (all p<0.01). Our study validates the prognostic value of the CIBMTR CGVHD RGs for OS and NRM in a contemporary transplant population. The CIBMTR CGVHD RGs can be used to predict major outcomes, tailor treatment planning, and enrollment in clinical trials. PMID:25528390
Helfand, Brian T; Kearns, James; Conran, Carly; Xu, Jianfeng
Current issues related to prostate cancer (PCa) clinical care (e.g., over-screening, over-diagnosis, and over-treatment of nonaggressive PCa) call for risk assessment tools that can be combined with family history (FH) to stratify disease risk among men in the general population. Since 2007, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified more than 100 SNPs associated with PCa susceptibility. In this review, we discuss (1) the validity of these PCa risk-associated SNPs, individually and collectively; (2) the various methods used for measuring the cumulative effect of multiple SNPs, including genetic risk score (GRS); (3) the adequate number of SNPs needed for risk assessment; (4) reclassification of risk based on evolving numbers of SNPs used to calculate genetic risk, (5) risk assessment for men from various racial groups, and (6) the clinical utility of genetic risk assessment. In conclusion, data available to date support the clinical validity of PCa risk-associated SNPs and GRS in risk assessment among men with or without FH. PCa risk-associated SNPs are not intended for diagnostic use; rather, they should be used the same way as FH. Combining GRS and FH can significantly improve the performance of risk assessment. Improved risk assessment may have important clinical utility in targeted PCa testing. However, clinical trials are urgently needed to evaluate this clinical utility as well as the acceptance of GRS by patients and physicians. PMID:27297129
Abreu, P C; Greenberg, D A; Hodge, S E
Several methods have been proposed for linkage analysis of complex traits with unknown mode of inheritance. These methods include the LOD score maximized over disease models (MMLS) and the "nonparametric" linkage (NPL) statistic. In previous work, we evaluated the increase of type I error when maximizing over two or more genetic models, and we compared the power of MMLS to detect linkage, in a number of complex modes of inheritance, with analysis assuming the true model. In the present study, we compare MMLS and NPL directly. We simulated 100 data sets with 20 families each, using 26 generating models: (1) 4 intermediate models (penetrance of heterozygote between that of the two homozygotes); (2) 6 two-locus additive models; and (3) 16 two-locus heterogeneity models (admixture alpha = 1.0,.7,.5, and.3; alpha = 1.0 replicates simple Mendelian models). For LOD scores, we assumed dominant and recessive inheritance with 50% penetrance. We took the higher of the two maximum LOD scores and subtracted 0.3 to correct for multiple tests (MMLS-C). We compared expected maximum LOD scores and power, using MMLS-C and NPL as well as the true model. Since NPL uses only the affected family members, we also performed an affecteds-only analysis using MMLS-C. The MMLS-C was both uniformly more powerful than NPL for most cases we examined, except when linkage information was low, and close to the results for the true model under locus heterogeneity. We still found better power for the MMLS-C compared with NPL in affecteds-only analysis. The results show that use of two simple modes of inheritance at a fixed penetrance can have more power than NPL when the trait mode of inheritance is complex and when there is heterogeneity in the data set.
Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D.; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio
AIM To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship (P>0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y. PMID:28393027
Jauhiainen, Raimo; Stančáková, Alena; Kuusisto, Johanna; Laakso, Markku
We investigated the association of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) with insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity, and risk of type 2 diabetes, drug-treated hypertension, cardiovascular (CVD) events and total mortality in a follow-up study of the Metabolic Syndrome in Men (METSIM) cohort. The METSIM study includes 10,197 Finnish men, aged 45–73 years, and examined in 2005–2010. Of 8,749 non-diabetic participants of the METSIM study 693 developed incident type 2 diabetes, 225 started antihypertensive medication, 351 had a CVD event, and 392 died during a 8.2-year follow-up. The FINDRISC was significantly associated with decreases in insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity (P<0.0001), and with a 4.14-fold increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes, 2.43-fold increased risk of drug-treated hypertension, 1.61-fold increased risk of CVD, and 1.55-increased risk of total mortality (the FINDRISC ≥12 vs. < 12 points). In conclusion, the FINDRISC predicts impairment in insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity, the conversion to type 2 diabetes, drug-treated hypertension, CVD events and total mortality. PMID:27851812
Wirawan, I Made Ady; Wu, Rodney; Abernethy, Malcolm; Aldington, Sarah; Larsen, Peter D
This study evaluated whether coronary artery calcium score (CACS) improved cardiovascular disease risk prediction when compared to the New Zealand Cardiovascular Risk Charts (NZ-CRC), and describes the potential utilization of CACS in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment of pilots. A cross-sectional study was performed among asymptomatic patients who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at Pacific Radiology Wellington, New Zealand, between August 2007 and July 2012 and had their CACS and CVD risk score calculated. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to measure the accuracy of the NZ-CRC and CACS. Reclassification analyses were performed to examine the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of CACS when compared to NZ-CRC. Over a 5-yr study period, 237 male asymptomatic patients with ages ranging from 30 to 69 yr with a mean (SD) of 53.24 (8.18) yr, were included. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) (95% CI) for CACS and NZ-CRC were 0.88 (0.83-0.93) and 0.66 (0.59-0.73), respectively. The NRI (95% CI) of the calcium scores was 0.39 (0.17-0.62). CACS should be assessed in pilots with 5-yr CVD risk scores of 5-10% and 10-15%. CACS has a better accuracy than the NZ-CRC and reclassified a considerable proportion of asymptomatic patients into correct cardiovascular risk categories. An approach on how the CACS should be employed in the cardiovascular risk assessment of airline pilots is noted in this paper.
Lupu, Vasile Valeriu; Ignat, Ancuţa; Paduraru, Gabriela; Ciubara, Anamaria; Moscalu, Mihaela; Marginean, Cristina Oana; Burlea, Marin
Abstract The 24-hour esophageal pH-metry is the most widely used method to diagnose the gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). The study compares the different scores obtained during the 24-hour esophageal pH-metry. A retrospective study over 5 years including 234 children (1 month and 18 years old) admitted in a pediatric gastroenterology regional center in Northeast Romania, with suspicion of GERD. They underwent 24- hour esophageal pH-metry, and the scores obtained (Boix-Ochoa, DeMeester, Johnson-DeMeester) were compared. Out of the 234 children, 172 (73.50%) had positive Boix-Ochoa score and 62 (26.50%) had normal Boix-Ochoa score (<11.99). Based on the DeMeester score, 149 children (63.68%) were positive and 85 (36.32%) were negative. The correlation of the Demeester score with the Boix-Ochoa score was very high (r = 0.978, P < < 0.01, 95% confidence interval). Considering the Johnson-DeMeester score, 120 cases (51.28%) had GERD and 114 (48.72%) did not. The correlation of the Johnson-DeMeester score with the Boix-Ochoa score was still high (r = 0.94, P < < 0.01, 95% 95% confidence interval). As considered until now, the Boix-Ochoa score is the most accurate score to be used in pediatrics for the diagnosis of GERD. The use of the different scores—Boix-Ochoa, DeMeester, Johnson-DeMeester—showed a high sensitivity and specificity of the pH-metry measurements applied to the study lot, but the last score has a higher risk of false-negative results. PMID:27367982
Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier
In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Time-trend analysis on the Framingham risk score and prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention without prior history of coronary vascular disease over the last 17 years: a study from the Mayo Clinic PCI registry.
Lee, Moo-Sik; Flammer, Andreas J; Li, Jing; Lennon, Ryan J; Singh, Mandeep; Holmes, David R; Rihal, Charanjit S; Lerman, Amir
There is a paucity of data on the temporal trends of cardiovascular risk factors in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We investigated the secular trends of risk profiles of patients undergoing PCI without prior history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD risk factors are changed over time. This time-trend analysis from 1994 to 2010 was performed within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry. Outcome measures were prevalence of CVD risk factors, including the Framingham risk score (FRS), at the time of admission for PCI. During this period, 12,055 patients without a history of CVD (mean age, 65.0 ± 12.4 years, 67% male) underwent PCI at the Mayo Clinic. Age distribution slightly shifted toward older age (P for trend <0.05), but sex did not change over time. Despite a higher prevalence of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus over time, actual blood pressure and lipid profiles improved (P for trend <0.001). Over time, FRS and 10-year CVD risk improved significantly (7.3 ± 3.2 to 6.5 ± 3.3, P for trend <0.001; and 11.0 to 9.0, P for trend <0.001, respectively). Body mass index, not included in the FRS, increased significantly (29.0 ± 5.2 to 30.1 ± 6.2 kg/m(2) , P for trend <0.001), whereas smoking prevalence did not change. The current study demonstrates that although traditional FRS and its associated predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk declined over time, the prevalence of risk factors increased in patients undergoing PCI. The study suggests the need for a new risk-factor assessment in this patient population. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Background An increased but unpredictable risk of malnutrition is associated with hospitalization, especially in children with chronic diseases. We investigated the applicability of Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), an instrument proposed to estimate the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized children. We also evaluated the role of age and co-morbidities as risk for malnutrition. Methods The STRONGkids consists of 4 items providing a score that classifies a patient in low, moderate, high risk for malnutrition. A prospective observational multi-centre study was performed in 12 Italian hospitals. Children 1–18 years consecutively admitted and otherwise unselected were enrolled. Their STRONGkids score was obtained and compared with the actual nutritional status expressed as BMI and Height for Age SD-score. Results Of 144 children (75 males, mean age 6.5 ± 4.5 years), 52 (36%) had an underlying chronic disease. According to STRONGkids, 46 (32%) children were at low risk, 76 (53%) at moderate risk and 22 (15%) at high risk for malnutrition. The latter had significantly lower Height for Age values (mean SD value -1.07 ± 2.08; p = 0.008) and BMI values (mean SD-values -0.79 ± 2.09; p = 0.0021) in comparison to other groups. However, only 29 children were actually malnourished. Conclusions The STRONGkids is easy to administer. It is highly sensitive but not specific. It may be used as a very preliminary screening tool to be integrated with other clinical data in order to reliably predict the risk of malnutrition. PMID:24373709
Johnstone, Carolyn C; Rattray, Janice; Myers, Liz
Currently, medical and surgical wards tend to have a higher number of sicker and more dependent patients. There is also a growing recognition that several indicators of acute deterioration are being missed, leading to adverse consequences for the patients. As a result, many initiatives have been designed to try to reduce these consequences, including the development of early warning scoring or track and trigger systems and medical response and critical care outreach teams. This paper briefly discusses the risk factors associated with acute deterioration, the use of early warning scoring or track and trigger systems and the role of outreach teams. The aim of this paper is to discuss the development and subsequent implementation of early warning scoring systems (EWS) or track and trigger systems. It will also discuss the associated organizational changes; the main organizational change discussed will be the introduction outreach teams. For this paper, a pragmatic search strategy was implemented using the following terms: early warning score and scoring, track and trigger systems, decision-making tools, critical care outreach and medical emergency teams. The databases used included CINHAL (1997-2007), Medline, Blackwell Synergy and Science Direct, as these would enable the retrieval of relevant literature in the area of triggering of response to acute deterioration in clinical condition. A 10-year limit was initially set, although review of the literature identified resulted in a widening of this to include some of the relevant (and occasionally more dated) literature referred to in these papers. A total of 645 were accessed; of these 135 were retrieved as they appeared to meet the inclusion criteria, but only 35 have been included in this review. The term decision-making tools accounted for the largest number (500), but most of these were irrelevant. EWS are not always used to their full potential, raising the question of their impact. The impact of outreach teams
Zammit, Stanley; Allebeck, Peter; David, Anthony S; Dalman, Christina; Hemmingsson, Tomas; Lundberg, Ingvar; Lewis, Glyn
Longitudinal studies indicate that a lower IQ score increases risk of schizophrenia. Preliminary evidence suggests there is no such effect for nonpsychotic bipolar disorder. To our knowledge, there are no prior population-based, longitudinal studies of premorbid IQ score and risk of developing severe depression requiring hospital admission. To investigate the association between premorbid IQ score and risk of developing schizophrenia, other nonaffective psychoses, bipolar disorder, and severe depression and to investigate effects of confounding and examine possible causal pathways by which IQ may alter these risks. Historical cohort study, using record linkage for hospital admissions during a 27-year follow-up period. Survey of Swedish conscripts (1969-1970). Population-based sample of 50,087 male subjects. Data were available on IQ score at conscription and on other social and psychological characteristics. International Classification of Diseases, Eighth Revision or Ninth Revision diagnoses of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, severe depression, and other nonaffective psychoses. There was no association between premorbid IQ score and risk of bipolar disorder. Lower IQ was associated with increased risk of schizophrenia, severe depression, and other nonaffective psychoses. Risk of schizophrenia was increased in subjects with average IQ compared with those with high scores, indicating that risk is spread across the whole IQ range. Lower IQ score was associated with increased risk for schizophrenia, severe depression, and other nonaffective psychoses, but not bipolar disorder. This finding indicates that at least some aspects of the neurodevelopmental etiology of bipolar disorder may differ from these other disorders.
Pendlebury, Sarah T.; Lovett, Nicola; Smith, Sarah C.; Cornish, Emily; Mehta, Ziyah; Rothwell, Peter M.
Background: reliable delirium risk stratification will aid recognition, anticipation and prevention and will facilitate targeting of resources in clinical practice as well as identification of at-risk patients for research. Delirium risk scores have been derived for acute medicine, but none has been prospectively validated in external cohorts. We therefore aimed to determine the reliability of externally derived risk scores in a consecutive cohort of older acute medicine patients. Methods: consecutive patients aged ≥65 over two 8-week periods (2010, 2012) were screened prospectively for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), and delirium was diagnosed using the DSM IV criteria. The reliability of existing delirium risk scores derived in acute medicine cohorts and simplified for use in routine clinical practice (USA, n = 2; Spain, n = 1; Indonesia, n = 1) was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Delirium was defined as prevalent (on admission), incident (occurring during admission) and any (prevalent + incident) delirium. Results: among 308 consecutive patients aged ≥65 (mean age/SD = 81/8 years, 164 (54%) female), existing delirium risk scores had AUCs for delirium similar to those reported in their original internal validations ranging from 0.69 to 0.76 for any delirium and 0.73 to 0.83 for incident delirium. All scores performed better than chance but no one score was clearly superior. Conclusions: externally derived delirium risk scores performed well in our independent acute medicine population with reliability unaffected by simplification and might therefore facilitate targeting of multicomponent interventions in routine clinical practice. PMID:26764396
Make, Barry J; Eriksson, Göran; Calverley, Peter M; Jenkins, Christine R; Postma, Dirkje S; Peterson, Stefan; Östlund, Ollie; Anzueto, Antonio
There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0-100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory properties of predictive variables. The best predictors of an exacerbation in the next 6 months were more COPD maintenance medications prior to the trial, higher mean daily reliever use, more exacerbations during the previous year, lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio, and female sex. Using these risk variables, we developed a score to predict short-term (6-month) risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX). Budesonide/formoterol reduced future exacerbation risk more than formoterol or as-needed short-acting β2-agonist (salbutamol). SCOPEX incorporates easily identifiable patient characteristics and can be readily applied in clinical practice to target therapy to reduce COPD exacerbations in patients at the highest risk.
Onu, Mihaela; Roceanu, Adina; Sboto-Frankenstein, Uta; Bendic, Robert; Tarta, Eugen; Preoteasa, Florentin; Bajenaru, Ovidiu
Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been explored as a noninvasive tool to assess pathology in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. However, the correlation between classical MRI measures and physical disability is modest in MS. The diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) MRI technique holds particular promise in this regard. The present study shows brain regions where FA and individual diffusivities abnormalities are present and check their correlations with physical disability clinical scores. Eight patients and 12 matched healthy controls were recruited. The Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite was administered. For MR-DTI acquisitions, a Genesis Signa 1.5 T MR system, an EP/SE scanning sequence, 25 gradient directions were used. Tract Based Spatial Statistics (TBSS) group comparisons showed reduced FA and increased individual diffusivities in several brain regions in patients. Significant correlations were found between FA and: EDSS, 9-HPT(NON)DOM and 25 FW score; between λ2 and: P100 (r&l), 9-HPT(NON)DOM and 25 FW; between λ3 and: 9-HPT(NON)DOM and 25 FW score. Fractional anisotropy and individual radial diffusivities proved to be important markers of motor disabilities in MS patients when the disease duration mean and the disability scores values range are relatively high. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kuderer, Nicole M; Culakova, Eva; Lyman, Gary H; Francis, Charles; Falanga, Anna; Khorana, Alok A
Retrospective studies have suggested an association between cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) and patient survival. We evaluated a previously validated VTE Clinical Risk Score in also predicting early mortality and cancer progression. A large, nationwide, prospective cohort study of adults with solid tumors or lymphoma initiating chemotherapy was conducted from 2002 to 2006 at 115 U.S. practice sites. Survival and cancer progression were estimated by the method of Kaplan and Meier. Multivariate analysis was based on Cox regression analysis adjusted for major prognostic factors including VTE itself. Of 4,405 patients, 134 (3.0%) died and 330 (7.5%) experienced disease progression during the first 4 months of therapy (median follow-up 75 days). Patients deemed high risk (n = 540, 12.3%) by the Clinical Risk Score had a 120-day mortality rate of 12.7% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-6.3), and intermediate-risk patients (n = 2,665, 60.5%) had a mortality rate of 5.9% (aHR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.4) compared with only 1.4% for low-risk patients (n = 1,200, 27.2%). At 120 days of follow-up, cancer progression occurred in 27.2% of high-risk patients (aHR 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.5) and 16.4% of intermediate-risk patients (aHR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3-2.7) compared with only 8.5% of low-risk patients (p < .0001). The Clinical Risk Score, originally developed to predict the occurrence of VTE, is also predictive of early mortality and cancer progression during the first four cycles of outpatient chemotherapy, independent from other major prognostic factors including VTE itself. Ongoing and future studies will help determine the impact of VTE prophylaxis on survival. The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is increased in patients receiving cancer chemotherapy. In this article, the authors demonstrate that a popular risk score for VTE in patients with cancer is also associated with the risk of early mortality in this setting. It is important that
Selvarajah, Sharmini; Fong, Alan Yean Yip; Selvaraj, Gunavathy; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Uiterwaal, Cuno S. P. M.; Bots, Michiel L.
Background Risk stratification in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is important, such that the most resource intensive strategy is used to achieve the greatest clinical benefit. This is essential in developing countries with wide variation in health care facilities, scarce resources and increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study sought to validate the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI in a multi-ethnic developing country. Methods Data from a national, prospective, observational registry of acute coronary syndromes was used. The TIMI risk score was evaluated in 4701 patients who presented with STEMI. Model discrimination and calibration was tested in the overall population and in subgroups of patients that were at higher risk of mortality; i.e., diabetics and those with renal impairment. Results Compared to the TIMI population, this study population was younger, had more chronic conditions, more severe index events and received treatment later. The TIMI risk score was strongly associated with 30-day mortality. Discrimination was good for the overall study population (c statistic 0.785) and in the high risk subgroups; diabetics (c statistic 0.764) and renal impairment (c statistic 0.761). Calibration was good for the overall study population and diabetics, with χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.936 and 0.983 respectively, but poor for those with renal impairment, χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.006. Conclusions The TIMI risk score is valid and can be used for risk stratification of STEMI patients for better targeted treatment. PMID:22815733
Selvarajah, Sharmini; Fong, Alan Yean Yip; Selvaraj, Gunavathy; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Bots, Michiel L
Risk stratification in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is important, such that the most resource intensive strategy is used to achieve the greatest clinical benefit. This is essential in developing countries with wide variation in health care facilities, scarce resources and increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study sought to validate the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI in a multi-ethnic developing country. Data from a national, prospective, observational registry of acute coronary syndromes was used. The TIMI risk score was evaluated in 4701 patients who presented with STEMI. Model discrimination and calibration was tested in the overall population and in subgroups of patients that were at higher risk of mortality; i.e., diabetics and those with renal impairment. Compared to the TIMI population, this study population was younger, had more chronic conditions, more severe index events and received treatment later. The TIMI risk score was strongly associated with 30-day mortality. Discrimination was good for the overall study population (c statistic 0.785) and in the high risk subgroups; diabetics (c statistic 0.764) and renal impairment (c statistic 0.761). Calibration was good for the overall study population and diabetics, with χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.936 and 0.983 respectively, but poor for those with renal impairment, χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.006. The TIMI risk score is valid and can be used for risk stratification of STEMI patients for better targeted treatment.
Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert
Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.
Wood, Paul L.; Mankidy, Rishikesh; Ritchie, Shawn; Heath, Doug; Wood, Julie A.; Flax, John; Goodenowe, Dayan B.
Background Plasmalogens, which are key structural phospholipids in brain membranes, are decreased in the brain and serum of patients with Alzheimer disease (AD). We performed this pilot study to evaluate the relation between the levels of circulating plasmalogens and Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale–Cognitive (ADAS-Cog) scores in patients with AD. Methods We evaluated participants’ ADAS-Cog scores and serum plasmalogen levels. For the 40 included AD patients with an ADAS-Cog score between 20 and 46, we retested their ADAS-Cog score 1 year later. The levels of docosahexaenoic acid plasmalogen were measured by use of liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Results We found that the ADAS-Cog score increased significantly in AD patients with circulating plasmalogen levels that were ≤ 75% of that of age-matched controls at entry into the study. There was no change in score among participants with normal serum plasmalogen levels at baseline (> 75%). Limitations This was a pilot study with 40 patients, and the results require validation in a larger population. Conclusion Our study demonstrates that decreased levels of plasmalogen precursors in the central nervous system correlate with functional decline (as measured by ADAS-Cog scores) in AD patients. The use of both ADAS-Cog and serum plasmalogen data may be a more accurate way of predicting cognitive decline in AD patients, and may be used to decrease the risk of including patients with no cognitive decline in the placebo arm of a drug trial. PMID:20040248
Roberts, William O; Schwartz, Robert S; Garberich, Ross F; Carlson, Samantha; Knickelbine, Thomas; Schwartz, Jonathan G; Peichel, Gretchen; Lesser, John R; Wickstrom, Kelly; Harris, Kevin M
Many male marathon runners have elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores despite high physical activity. We examined the association between CAC scores, cardiovascular risk factors, and lifestyle habits in long term marathoners. We recruited men who had run ≥1 marathon annually for 25 consecutive years. CAC was assessed using coronary computed tomography angiography. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CAD) risk factors were measured with a 12-lead ECG, serum lipid panel, height, weight, resting blood pressure and heart rate, and a risk factor questionnaire. Fifty males, mean age 59 ± 0.9 years with a combined total of 3,510 marathons (median 58.5; range 27-171), had a mean BMI of 22.44 m/kg ± 0.4, HDL and LDL cholesterols of 58 ± 1.6 and 112 ± 3.7 mg/dL, and CAC scores from 0 to 3,153. CAC scores varied from zero in 16 runners, to 1-100 in 12, 101-400 in 12, and >400 in 10. There was no statistical difference in the number of marathons run between the 4 groups. Compared to marathoners with no CAC, marathoners with moderate and extensive CAC were older (p=0.002), started running at an older age (p=0.003), were older when they ran their first marathon (p=0.006), and had more CAD risk factors (p=0.005); and marathoners with more CAC had higher rates of previous tobacco use (p=0.002) and prevalence of hyperlipidemia (p=0.01). Among experienced males who have run marathons for 26-34 years and completed between 27-171 marathons, CAC score is related to CAD risk factors and not the number of marathons run or years of running. This suggests that among long-term marathoners, more endurance exercise is not associated with an increased risk of CAC.
Hanisch-Kirkbride, Shauna L; Riley, Shawn J; Gore, Meredith L
Risk perception has an important influence on wildlife management and is particularly relevant to issues that present health risks, such as those associated with wildlife disease management. Knowledge of risk perceptions is useful to wildlife health professionals in developing communication messages that enhance public understanding of wildlife disease risks and that aim to increase public support for disease management. To promote knowledge of public understanding of disease risks in the context of wildlife disease management, we used a self-administered questionnaire mailed to a stratified random sample (n = 901) across the continental United States to accomplish three objectives: 1) assess zoonotic disease risk perceptions; 2) identify sociodemographic and social psychologic factors underlying these risk perceptions; and 3) examine the relationship between risk perception and agreement with wildlife disease management practices. Diseases we assessed in the surveys were rabies, plague, and West Nile virus. Risk perception, as measured by an index consisting of severity, susceptibility, and dread, was greatest for rabies and West Nile virus disease (x = 2.62 and 2.59, respectively, on a scale of 1 to 4 and least for plague (x = 2.39). The four most important variables associated with disease risk perception were gender, education, prior exposure to the disease, and concern for health effects. We found that stronger risk perception was associated with greater agreement with wildlife disease management. We found particular concern for the vulnerability of wildlife to zoonotic disease and for protection of wildlife health, indicating that stakeholders may be receptive to messages emphasizing the potential harm to wildlife from disease and to messages promoting One Health (i.e., those that emphasize the interdependence of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health).
Lu, Nan-Han; Yeh, Lee-Ren; Chen, Tai-Been; Huang, Yung-Hui; Kuo, Chung-Ming; Ding, Hueisch-Jy
Coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores are widely used to determine risk for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD). A CAC score does not have the diagnostic accuracy needed for CAD. This work uses a novel efficient approach to predict CAD in patients with low CAC scores. The study group comprised 86 subjects who underwent a screening health examination, including laboratory testing, CAC scanning, and cardiac angiography by 64-slice multidetector computed tomographic angiography. Eleven physiological variables and three personal parameters were investigated in proposed model. Logistic regression was applied to assess the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of when using individual variables and CAC score. Meta-analysis combined physiological and personal parameters by logistic regression. The diagnostic sensitivity of the CAC score was 14.3% when the CAC score was ≤30. Sensitivity increased to 57.13% using the proposed model. The statistically significant variables, based on beta values and P values, were family history, LDL-c, blood pressure, HDL-c, age, triglyceride, and cholesterol. The CAC score has low negative predictive value for CAD. This work applied a novel prediction method that uses patient information, including physiological and society parameters. The proposed method increases the accuracy of CAC score for predicting CAD.
Klisic, Aleksandra; Kavaric, Nebojsa; Soldatovic, Ivan; Bjelakovic, Bojko
Summary Background Since the cardiovascular (CV) risk score in the young population, children and adolescents, is underestimated, especially in developing countries such as Montenegro, where a strong interaction exists between the genetically conditioned CV risk and environmental factors, the purpose of this study was to estimate CV risk in apparently healthy adolescent girls. Moreover, we aimed to test some new, emerging CV risk factors and their interaction with the traditional ones, such as obesity. Precisely, we aimed to assess the impact of low bilirubin levels, as a routine biochemical parameter, as an additional risk factor for atherosclerotic disease in the adult phase. Methods Forty-five obese adolescent girls (mean age 17.8±1.22 years) and forty-five age- and sex-matched normal weight controls, all nonsmokers, were included. Anthropometric and biochemical parameters were measured. Cardiovascular Risk Score (CVRS) was calculated by adding the points for each risk factor (e.g. sex, HDL-c, non-HDL-c, blood pressure and fasting glycemia). Results A significant positive relationship between CVRS and ALT, hsCRP and TG/HDL-c, but an opposite relationship between CVRS and total bilirubin were found (P<0.001). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that higher waist circumference (WC) and LDL-c, but lower HDL-c were independent predictors of lower bilirubin values (adjusted R2=0.603, P<0.001). Conclusions Obese adolescent girls are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease late in life. In addition to the traditional risk factors, total bilirubin may have the potential to discriminate between low and higher risk for cardiovascular disturbances in healthy adolescent girls. PMID:28356879
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Oku, Kenji; Amengual, Olga; Yasuda, Shinsuke; Atsumi, Tatsuya
Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterised by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies that are pathogenic and have pro-coagulant activities. Thrombosis in APS tends to recur and require prophylaxis; however, the stereotypical treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positive aPL or high titre aPL correlate to thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of thrombotic risks in APS patients and to quantitatively analyse those risks, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined. These scores were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) was put into a scoring system. Both the aPL-S and GAPSS have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine-dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT). Additionally, clinicians may need to be aware of the patient's medical history, particularly with respect to the incidence of SLE, which influences the cutoff value for identifying high-risk patients.
Kunt, Ayse Gul; Kurtcephe, Murat; Hidiroglu, Mete; Cetin, Levent; Kucuker, Aslihan; Bakuy, Vedat; Ruchan Akar, Ahmet; Sener, Erol
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to compare additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models in calculating mortality risk in a Turkish cardiac surgical population. METHODS The current patient population consisted of 428 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 2004 and 2012, extracted from the TurkoSCORE database. Observed and predicted mortalities were compared for the additive/logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values were calculated for these models to compare predictive power. RESULTS The mean patient age was 74.5 ± 3.9 years at the time of surgery, and 35.0% were female. For the entire cohort, actual hospital mortality was 7.9% (n = 34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.4–10.5). However, the additive EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 6.4% (P = 0.23 vs observed; 95% CI 6.2–6.6), logistic EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 7.9% (P = 0.98 vs observed; 95% CI 7.3–8.6), EuroSCORE II- predicted mortality was 1.7% (P = 0.00 vs observed; 95% CI 1.6–1.8) and STS predicted mortality was 5.8% (P = 0.10 vs observed; 95% CI 5.4–6.2). The mean predictive performance of the analysed models for the entire cohort was fair, with 0.7 (95% CI 0.60–0.79). AUC values for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator were 0.70 (95% CI 0.60–0.79), 0.70 (95% CI 0.59–0.80), 0.72 (95% CI 0.62–0.81) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51–0.73), respectively. CONCLUSIONS EuroSCORE II significantly underestimated mortality risk for Turkish cardiac patients, whereas additive and logistic EuroSCORE and STS risk calculators were well calibrated. PMID:23403767
Sullivan, Patrick G; Wallach, Joshua D; Ioannidis, John P A
A wide variety of multivariable risk models have been developed to predict mortality in the setting of cardiac surgery; however, the relative utility of these models is unknown. This study investigated the literature related to comparisons made between established risk prediction models for perioperative mortality used in the setting of cardiac surgery. A systematic review was conducted to capture studies in cardiac surgery comparing the relative performance of at least 2 prediction models cited in recent guidelines (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation [EuroSCORE II], Society for Thoracic Surgeons 2008 Cardiac Surgery Risk Models [STS] score, and Age, Creatinine, Ejection Fraction [ACEF] score) for the outcomes of 1-month or inhospital mortality. For articles that met inclusion criteria, we extracted information on study design, predictive performance of risk models, and potential for bias. Meta-analyses were conducted to calculate a summary estimate of the difference in AUCs between models. We identified 22 eligible studies that contained 33 comparisons among the above models. Meta-analysis of differences in AUCs revealed that the EuroSCORE II and STS score performed similarly (with a summary difference in AUC = 0.00), while outperforming the ACEF score (with summary differences in AUC of 0.10 and 0.08, respectively, p <0.05). Other metrics of discrimination and calibration were presented less consistently, and no study presented any metric of reclassification. Small sample size and absent descriptions of missing data were common in these studies. In conclusion, the EuroSCORE II and STS score outperform the ACEF score on discrimination. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Janket, Sok-Ja; Qvarnström, Markku; Meurman, Jukka H; Baird, Alison E; Nuutinen, Pekka; Jones, Judith A
Oral infections have been postulated to produce cytokines that may contribute to the pathogenesis of coronary heart disease (CHD). We hypothesized that by estimating the combined production of inflammatory mediators attributable to several oral pathologies, we might be able to explain CHD with better precision. A total of 256 consecutive Finnish cardiac patients from Kuopio University Hospital with angiographically confirmed CHD and 250 age-, gender-, and residence-matched noncardiac patients (controls) were recruited. All dental factors expected to generate inflammatory mediators, including pericoronitis, dental caries, dentate status, root remnants, and gingivitis, were examined, and an asymptotic dental score (ADS) was developed by logistic regression analyses with an appropriate weighting scheme according to the likelihood ratio. We validated the explanatory ability of ADS by comparing it to that of the Total Dental Index and examining whether the ADS was associated with known predictors of CHD. A model that included ADS, C-reactive protein, HDL, and fibrinogen offered an explanatory ability that equaled or exceeded that of the Framingham heart score (C statistic=0.82 versus 0.80). When ADS was removed from this model, the C-statistic decreased to 0.77, which indicates that the ADS was a significant contributor to the explanatory ability of a logistic model. ADS may be useful as a prescreening tool to promote proactive cardiac evaluation among individuals without overt symptoms of CHD. However, additional prospective study is needed to validate the use of an oral health score as a predictor of incident CHD.
Hendriks, Rianne J; van der Leest, Marloes M G; Dijkstra, Siebren; Barentsz, Jelle O; Van Criekinge, Wim; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, Christina A; Schalken, Jack A; Mulders, Peter F A; van Oort, Inge M
Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostics would greatly benefit from more accurate, non-invasive techniques for the detection of clinically significant disease, leading to a reduction of over-diagnosis and over-treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the association between a novel urinary biomarker-based risk score (SelectMDx), multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) outcomes, and biopsy results for PCa detection. This retrospective observational study used data from the validation study of the SelectMDx score, in which urine was collected after digital rectal examination from men undergoing prostate biopsies. A subset of these patients also underwent a mpMRI scan of the prostate. The indications for performing mpMRI were based on persistent clinical suspicion of PCa or local staging after PCa was found upon biopsy. All mpMRI images were centrally reviewed in 2016 by an experienced radiologist blinded for the urine test results and biopsy outcome. The PI-RADS version 2 was used. In total, 172 patients were included for analysis. Hundred (58%) patients had PCa detected upon prostate biopsy, of which 52 (52%) had high-grade disease correlated with a significantly higher SelectMDx score (P < 0.01). The median SelectMDx score was significantly higher in patients with a suspicious significant lesion on mpMRI compared to no suspicion of significant PCa (P < 0.01). For the prediction of mpMRI outcome, the area-under-the-curve of SelectMDx was 0.83 compared to 0.66 for PSA and 0.65 for PCA3. There was a positive association between SelectMDx score and the final PI-RADS grade. There was a statistically significant difference in SelectMDx score between PI-RADS 3 and 4 (P < 0.01) and between PI-RADS 4 and 5 (P < 0.01). The novel urinary biomarker-based SelectMDx score is a promising tool in PCa detection. This study showed promising results regarding the correlation between the SelectMDx score and mpMRI outcomes, outperforming PCA3. Our results suggest that this risk
Belmares, Jaime; Gerding, Dale N; Parada, Jorge P; Miskevics, Scott; Weaver, Frances; Johnson, Stuart
To determine the response rate of Clostridium difficile disease (CDD) to treatment with metronidazole and assess a scoring system to predict response to treatment with metronidazole when applied at the time of CDD diagnosis. Retrospective review of patients with CDD who received primary treatment with metronidazole. We defined success as diarrhea resolution within 6 days of therapy. A CDD score was defined prospectively using variables suggested to correlate with disease severity. Among 102 evaluable patients, 72 had a successful response (70.6%). Twenty-one of the remaining 30 patients eventually responded to metronidazole, but required longer treatment, leaving 9 'true failures'. The mean CDD score was higher among true failures (2.89+/-1.4) than among all metronidazole responders (0.77+/-1.0) (p<.0001). The score was greater than 2 in 67% of true failures and 2 or less in 94% of metronidazole responders. Leukocytosis and abnormal CT scan findings were individual factors associated with a higher risk of metronidazole failure. Only 71% of CDD patients responded to metronidazole within 6 days, but the overall response rate was 91%. A CDD score greater than 2 was associated with metronidazole failure in 6 of 9 true failures. The CDD score will require prospective validation.
Cazzaniga, R; Francescani, A; Saetti, C; Spinnler, H
The aim of the present study was to provide a statistically sound way of reciprocally converting scores of the mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and the Milan overall dementia assessment (MODA). A consecutive series of 182 patients with "probable" Alzheimer's disease patients was examined with both tests. MODA and MMSE scores proved to be highly correlated. A formula for converting MODA and MMSE scores was generated.
Gregory, Cria O.; McCullough, Marjorie L.; Ramirez-Zea, Manuel; Stein, Aryeh D.
We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32·7 (SD 5·8) years) in 2002–4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). All four scores were correlated with energy intake (r 0·23–0·49; all P<0·01), but had varying associations with socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors and nutrient intakes. None of the scores was inversely associated with the metabolic syndrome or its components; rather some were positively associated with risk factors. Among both men and women the DQI-I was positively associated with BMI (kg/m2; β = 0·10, 95 % CI 0·003, 0·21 (men); β = 0·07, 95 % CI 0·01, 0·14 (women)) and waist circumference (cm; β = 0·02, 95 % CI 0·01, 0·03 (men); β = 0·02, 95 % CI = 0·01, 0·02 (women)). Among men, the RFS was positively associated with TAG (mg/l; β = 0·11, 95 % CI 0·02, 0·21) and glucose (mg/l; β = 0·13: 95 % CI 0·03, 0·22). We conclude that indices of diet quality are not consistently associated with chronic disease risk factor prevalence in this population of Guatemalan young adults. PMID:19025721
Gregory, Cria O; McCullough, Marjorie L; Ramirez-Zea, Manuel; Stein, Aryeh D
We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32.7 (sd 5.8) years) in 2002-4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). All four scores were correlated with energy intake (r 0.23-0.49; all P < 0.01), but had varying associations with socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors and nutrient intakes. None of the scores was inversely associated with the metabolic syndrome or its components; rather some were positively associated with risk factors. Among both men and women the DQI-I was positively associated with BMI (kg/m2; beta = 0.10, 95 % CI 0.003, 0.21 (men); beta = 0.07, 95 % CI 0.01, 0.14 (women)) and waist circumference (cm; beta = 0.02, 95 % CI 0.01, 0.03 (men); beta = 0.02, 95 % CI = 0.01, 0.02 (women)). Among men, the RFS was positively associated with TAG (mg/l; beta = 0.11, 95 % CI 0.02, 0.21) and glucose (mg/l; beta = 0.13: 95 % CI 0.03, 0.22). We conclude that indices of diet quality are not consistently associated with chronic disease risk factor prevalence in this population of Guatemalan young adults.
Cornec-Le Gall, Emilie; Audrézet, Marie-Pierre; Rousseau, Annick; Hourmant, Maryvonne; Renaudineau, Eric; Charasse, Christophe; Morin, Marie-Pascale; Moal, Marie-Christine; Dantal, Jacques; Wehbe, Bassem; Perrichot, Régine; Frouget, Thierry; Vigneau, Cécile; Potier, Jérôme; Jousset, Philippe; Guillodo, Marie-Paule; Siohan, Pascale; Terki, Nazim; Sawadogo, Théophile; Legrand, Didier; Menoyo-Calonge, Victorio; Benarbia, Seddik; Besnier, Dominique; Longuet, Hélène; Férec, Claude; Le Meur, Yannick
The course of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) varies among individuals, with some reaching ESRD before 40 years of age and others never requiring RRT. In this study, we developed a prognostic model to predict renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD on the basis of genetic and clinical data. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1341 patients from the Genkyst cohort and evaluated the influence of clinical and genetic factors on renal survival. Multivariate survival analysis identified four variables that were significantly associated with age at ESRD onset, and a scoring system from 0 to 9 was developed as follows: being male: 1 point; hypertension before 35 years of age: 2 points; first urologic event before 35 years of age: 2 points; PKD2 mutation: 0 points; nontruncating PKD1 mutation: 2 points; and truncating PKD1 mutation: 4 points. Three risk categories were subsequently defined as low risk (0-3 points), intermediate risk (4-6 points), and high risk (7-9 points) of progression to ESRD, with corresponding median ages for ESRD onset of 70.6, 56.9, and 49 years, respectively. Whereas a score ≤3 eliminates evolution to ESRD before 60 years of age with a negative predictive value of 81.4%, a score >6 forecasts ESRD onset before 60 years of age with a positive predictive value of 90.9%. This new prognostic score accurately predicts renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD and may enable the personalization of therapeutic management of ADPKD.
Corcoran, David; Grant, Patrick; Berry, Colin
Undifferentiated chest pain is one of the most common reasons for emergency department attendance and admission to hospitals. Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is an important cause of chest pain, and accurate diagnosis and risk stratification in the emergency department must be a clinical priority. In the future, the incidence of NSTE-ACS will rise further as higher sensitivity troponin assays are implemented in clinical practice. In this article, we review contemporary approaches for the diagnosis and risk stratification of NSTE-ACS during emergency care. We consider the limitations of current practices and potential improvements. Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom), in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.
Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Destefano, Anita L; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A; Decarli, Charles; Ikram, M Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, W T; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J
Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.
Nagano, Satoshi; Yokouchi, Masahiro; Setoguchi, Takao; Sasaki, Hiromi; Shimada, Hirofumi; Kawamura, Ichiro; Ishidou, Yasuhiro; Kamizono, Junichi; Yamamoto, Takuya; Kawamura, Hideki; Komiya, Setsuro
Surgical site infection (SSI) has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST) owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases) treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P = 0.0002) and intraoperative blood loss (P = 0.0005) was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI) index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials). The MOSI index (0–4 points) score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points). The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI. PMID:24672281
Merrill, Ray M; Perego, Ugo A M; Heiner, Stephen W
A number of risk factors have been implicated for prostate cancer, with dietary fat intake the most commonly accepted modifiable risk. To assess the relationship between health risk indicators (e.g., cholesterol, blood pressure, blood sugar, and percent body fat), which are related to dietary fat intake, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) scores. Relationships between demographics and select behaviors (e.g., cigarette smoking and physical activity) with PSA scores are also considered. The setting was the 1999 Huntsman World Senior Games in St. George, Utah. Subjects' analysis is based on 536 men aged 50 years and older completing a questionnaire and receiving free screening, including a PSA. Frequency distributions, multiple regression techniques, and the Spearman correlation coefficients. A positive relationship was observed between increasing age groups and mean PSA scores (Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel Chi-Square: 53.8, p < 0.0001). After adjusting for age, none of the personal risk factor indicators (i.e., cholesterol, blood pressure, blood sugar, and percent body fat) were related to PSA scores. Other factors not related to PSA scores after adjusting for age were race, marital status, education, history of chronic disease, cigarette smoking, alcohol use, and physical activity. Because risk indicators such as cholesterol, blood pressure, blood sugar, and percent body fat are associated with dietary fat intake, their failure to be related with PSA scores makes it further unclear how this commonly accepted modifiable risk factor for prostate cancer may influence the disease.
Hosseini, Seyed Vahid; Safarpour, Ali Reza; Taghavi, Seyed Alireza
Ulcerative Colitis (UC) follows a natural clinical course of relapses and remissions. The aim of this study was to construct a risk-scoring formula in order to enable predicting relapses in patients with UC. From October 2012 to October 2013, 157 patients from Shiraz, southern Iran who were diagnosed with UC and in remission were enrolled. At 3-month intervals, multiple risk factors of hemoglobin, complete blood counts, serum iron and albumin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and faecal calprotectin levels, sex, age, cigarette smoking, positive family history of inflammatory bowel diseases, past history of appendectomy, extra-intestinal accompanying diseases, extent of disease at the beginning of study, number of previous relapses, duration of disease and duration of remission before the study were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were applied to fit the final model. The new risk-scoring system accuracy was assessed using receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. Seventy four patients (48.1%) experienced a relapse. Multivariate analysis revealed that relapses could significantly be predicted by the level of fecal calprotectin (OR=8.1), age (OR=9.2), the Seo activity index (OR=52.7), and the number of previous relapses (OR=4.2). The risk scoring formula was developed using the regression coefficient values of the aforementioned variables. Four predictor variables were significant in the final model and were used in our risk-scoring formula. It is recommended that patients who achieve high scores are diligently observed, treated, and followed up.
Rockett, Fernanda Camboim; Perla, Alexandre da Silveira; Perry, Ingrid D Schweigert; Chaves, Márcia L Fagundes
Studies suggest a higher prevalence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors amongst migraineurs, but results have been conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate traditional and newly recognized risk factors as well as other surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk in obese and normal weight women with migraine. Fifty-nine adult female probands participated in this case-control study. The sample was divided into normal weight and obese migraineurs and age- and body mass index-matched control groups. The following cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed: serum levels of lipids, fasting glucose, and insulin; insulin resistance; blood pressure; smoking (categorized as current, past or never); Framingham 10-year risk of general cardiovascular disease score; C-reactive protein; family history of cardiovascular disease; physical activity; sleep disturbances; depression; and bioelectrical impedance phase angle. The means of continuous variables were compared using Student's t-test for independent samples or the Mann-Whitney U-test (for 2 groups) and ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test (for 4 groups) depending on the distribution of data. All migraineurs were sedentary irrespective of nutritional status. Migraineurs had higher depression scores and shorter sleep duration, and obese migraineurs, in particular, had worse sleep quality scores. Insulin resistance and insulinaemia were associated with obesity, and obese migraineurs had lower HDL-c than normal weight controls and migraineurs. Also, the Framingham risk score was higher in obese migraineurs. These findings suggest that female migraineurs experience marked inactivity, depression, and some sleep disturbance, that higher insulin resistance and insulinaemia are related to obesity, and that obesity and migraine probably exert overlapping effects on HDL-c levels and Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risk.
Background Studies suggest a higher prevalence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors amongst migraineurs, but results have been conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate traditional and newly recognized risk factors as well as other surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk in obese and normal weight women with migraine. Methods Fifty-nine adult female probands participated in this case–control study. The sample was divided into normal weight and obese migraineurs and age- and body mass index-matched control groups. The following cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed: serum levels of lipids, fasting glucose, and insulin; insulin resistance; blood pressure; smoking (categorized as current, past or never); Framingham 10-year risk of general cardiovascular disease score; C-reactive protein; family history of cardiovascular disease; physical activity; sleep disturbances; depression; and bioelectrical impedance phase angle. The means of continuous variables were compared using Student’s t-test for independent samples or the Mann–Whitney U-test (for 2 groups) and ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test (for 4 groups) depending on the distribution of data. Results All migraineurs were sedentary irrespective of nutritional status. Migraineurs had higher depression scores and shorter sleep duration, and obese migraineurs, in particular, had worse sleep quality scores. Insulin resistance and insulinaemia were associated with obesity, and obese migraineurs had lower HDL-c than normal weight controls and migraineurs. Also, the Framingham risk score was higher in obese migraineurs. Conclusion These findings suggest that female migraineurs experience marked inactivity, depression, and some sleep disturbance, that higher insulin resistance and insulinaemia are related to obesity, and that obesity and migraine probably exert overlapping effects on HDL-c levels and Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risk. PMID:24011175
Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo
Background Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. Objective To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. Methods A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. Results The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Conclusion Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases. PMID:24652053
Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.
Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527
Mlodinow, Alexei S.; Khavanin, Nima; Hume, Keith M.; Simmons, Christopher J.; Weiss, Michael J.; Murphy, Robert X.; Gutowski, Karol A.
Background: Risk discussion is a central tenet of the dialogue between surgeon and patient. Risk calculators have recently offered a new way to integrate evidence-based practice into the discussion of individualized patient risk and expectation management. Focusing on the comprehensive Tracking Operations and Outcomes for Plastic Surgeons (TOPS) database, we endeavored to add plastic surgical outcomes to the previously developed Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) score. Methods: The TOPS database from 2008 to 2011 was queried for patients undergoing breast reconstruction. Regression models were constructed for the following complications: seroma, dehiscence, surgical site infection (SSI), explantation, flap failure, reoperation, and overall complications. Results: Of 11,992 cases, 4439 met inclusion criteria. Overall complication rate was 15.9%, with rates of 3.4% for seroma, 4.0% for SSI, 6.1% for dehiscence, 3.7% for explantation, 7.0% for flap loss, and 6.4% for reoperation. Individualized risk models were developed with acceptable goodness of fit, accuracy, and internal validity. Distribution of overall complication risk was broad and asymmetric, meaning that the average risk was often a poor estimate of the risk for any given patient. These models were added to the previously developed open-access version of the risk calculator, available at http://www.BRAscore.org. Conclusions: Population-based measures of risk may not accurately reflect risk for many individual patients. In this era of increasing emphasis on evidence-based medicine, we have developed a breast reconstruction risk assessment calculator from the robust TOPS database. The BRA Score tool can aid in individualizing—and quantifying—risk to better inform surgical decision making and better manage patient expectations. PMID:26090295
Cetin, Mustafa; Cakici, Musa; Zencir, Cemil; Tasolar, Hakan; Baysal, Erkan; Balli, Mehmet; Akturk, Erdal
As the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores include similar risk factors for the development of coronary artery disease (CAD), they may provide crucial information regarding the severity of coronary artery lesions and the risk of thromboembolism. To increase the likelihood of determining CAD severity, we formulated the CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score comprising hyperlipidemia and smoking in addition to the components of the CHA2DS2-VASc score and male instead of female gender. We aimed to investigate whether these 3 risk scores can be used to predict CAD severity. A total of 407 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography were enrolled in the study. Presence of >50% stenosis in a coronary artery was assessed as significant CAD. Of the patients, 87 had normal coronary angiograms and served as group 1. The remaining 320 patients with coronary stenosis were further classified into 2 groups according to CAD with stenosis of <50% or ≥50%: 123 patients with mild CAD as group 2 and 197 patients with severe CAD as group 3. The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores were significantly different among the 3 groups. The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores correlated significantly with the number of diseased vessels (r = 0.406, p <0.001; r = 0.308, p <0.001; and r = 0.533, p <0.001, respectively) and the Gensini score (r = 0.383, p <0.001; r = 0.300, p <0.001; and r = 0.500, p <0.001, respectively). The CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score was found to be the best scoring scheme to predict CAD severity in the area under the curve comparison of these scoring systems. For prediction of severe CAD, the cut-off value of CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score was >2 with a sensitivity of 85.2% and a specificity of 57.5% (area under the curve 0.802, 95% confidence interval 0.760 to 0.839, p <0.001). In conclusion, our findings suggest that the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and especially CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores could be considered predictive of the risk of severe CAD.
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Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali
Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670
Onu, Mihaela; Aroceanu, Adina; Ferastraoaru, Victor; Bajenaru, Ovidiu
Recent MR studies have shown that, in multiple sclerosis, selective regional, but not global gray matter atrophy occurs in multiple sclerosis. Our aim was to identify specific areas of gray matter volume changes and explore the relationship between atrophy and clinical motor outcomes. Nine patients with relapsing remitting MS and 9 matched healthy controls were recruited. The Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite was administered. For MR acquisitions, a GE- Genesis- Signa, 1.5T MR system, was used. A voxel-based morphometry (VBM), subcortical structures segmentation (FIRST) and volumetric (SIENAx) FSL tools were used in the study. Group comparison showed atrophy for several gray matter regions. The most important volume reductions were found for subcortical deep gray matter areas. Correlations with clinical scores were checked and specific gray matter areas showed significant volume reductions associated with motor scores (9-hole peg time and 25-feet walk time) and EDSS (Expanded Disability Status Scale). We performed a voxelwise analysis of gray matter changes in MS and found a more prominent atrophy for the subcortical structures than for cortical gray matter. Using an additional analysis (FIRST and SIENAx segmentation/volumetry) we were able to confirm the VBM results and to quantify the degree of atrophy in specific structures. Specific gray matter regions which volume reductions correlate with 25-feet walk, 9-hole peg times and EDSS suggest that 25-feet walk time is the best predictor of disease progression in terms of gray matter reduction.
Azour, Lea; Kadoch, Michael A; Ward, Thomas J; Eber, Corey D; Jacobi, Adam H
Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is often identified on routine chest computed tomography (CT). The purpose of our study was to evaluate whether ordinal scoring of CAC on non-gated, routine chest CT is an accurate predictor of Agatston score ranges in a community-based population, and in particular to determine the accuracy of an ordinal score of zero on routine chest CT. Two thoracic radiologists reviewed consecutive same-day ECG-gated and routine non-gated chest CT scans of 222 individuals. CAC was quantified using the Agatston scoring on the ECG-gated scans, and using an ordinal method on routine scans, with a score from 0 to 12. The pattern and distribution of CAC was assessed. The correlation between routine exam ordinal scores and Agatston scores in ECG-gated exams, as well as the accuracy of assigning a zero calcium score on routine chest CT was determined. CAC was most prevalent in the left anterior descending coronary artery in both single and multi-vessel coronary artery disease. There was a strong correlation between the non-gated ordinal and ECG-gated Agatston scores (r = 0.811, p < 0.01). Excellent inter-reader agreement (k = 0.95) was shown for the presence (total ordinal score ≥1) or absence (total ordinal score = 0) of CAC on routine chest CT. The negative predictive value for a total ordinal score of zero on routine CT was 91.6% (95% CI, 85.1-95.9). Total ordinal scores of 0, 1-3, 4-5, and ≥6 corresponded to average Agatston scores of 0.52 (0.3-0.8), 98.7 (78.2-117.1), 350.6 (264.9-436.3) and 1925.4 (1526.9-2323.9). Visual assessment of CAC on non-gated routine chest CT accurately predicts Agatston score ranges, including the zero score, in ECG-gated CT. Inclusion of this information in radiology reports may be useful to convey important information on cardiovascular risk, particularly premature atherosclerosis in younger patients. Copyright © 2016 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights
Michelis, Fotios V; Messner, Hans A; Uhm, Jieun; Alam, Naheed; Lambie, Anna; McGillis, Laura; Seftel, Matthew D; Gupta, Vikas; Kuruvilla, John; Lipton, Jeffrey H; Kim, Dennis Dong Hwan
Risk scores have been developed for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes, such as the Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) and the modified European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation risk score (mEBMT) for acute leukemia. We investigated the influence of these scores for 350 patients who underwent transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The HCT-CI scores were grouped as 0 to 2 and ≥ 3 (231 and 119 patients, respectively) and the mEBMT scores as 0 to 2 and ≥ 3 (166 and 184 patients, respectively). Univariate analysis showed a significant association between the HCT-CI score and overall survival (OS) (P = .01), as did the mEBMT score (P = .002). The 5-year OS rate was 50% and 34% for a mEBMT score of 0 to 2 and ≥ 3, respectively. A subgroup of patients with a mEBMT score of 0 to 1 (n = 32) demonstrated a favorable OS of 75% at 5 years. This subgroup was younger (median age, 31 years), in first remission at transplantation, and had related donors. For the HCT-CI, the 5-year OS was 46% and 34% for a score of 0 to 2 and ≥ 3, respectively. Patients with an HCT-CI score of 0 (n = 94) had a 5-year OS of 44%. Multivariable analysis confirmed both the HCT-CI score and the mEBMT score, as previously grouped, as independent prognostic variables for both OS (P = .02 and P = .001, respectively) and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) (P = .01 and P = .003, respectively). The results of the present study have demonstrated that the HCT-CI and mEBMT are both prognostic for OS and NRM in our cohort. However, the mEBMT score can identify a favorable-risk subgroup of patients not identifiable using the HCT-CI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Make, Barry J; Eriksson, Göran; Calverley, Peter M; Jenkins, Christine R; Postma, Dirkje S; Peterson, Stefan; Östlund, Ollie; Anzueto, Antonio
Background There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Methods Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0–100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory properties of predictive variables. Results The best predictors of an exacerbation in the next 6 months were more COPD maintenance medications prior to the trial, higher mean daily reliever use, more exacerbations during the previous year, lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio, and female sex. Using these risk variables, we developed a score to predict short-term (6-month) risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX). Budesonide/formoterol reduced future exacerbation risk more than formoterol or as-needed short-acting β2-agonist (salbutamol). Conclusion SCOPEX incorporates easily identifiable patient characteristics and can be readily applied in clinical practice to target therapy to reduce COPD exacerbations in patients at the highest risk. PMID:25670896
Jones, Rebecca; Stout, Julie C; Labuschagne, Izelle; Say, Miranda; Justo, Damian; Coleman, Allison; Dumas, Eve M; Hart, Ellen; Owen, Gail; Durr, Alexandra; Leavitt, Blair R; Roos, Raymund; O'Regan, Alison; Langbehn, Doug; Tabrizi, Sarah J; Frost, Chris
Composite scores derived from joint statistical modelling of individual risk factors are widely used to identify individuals who are at increased risk of developing disease or of faster disease progression. We investigated the ability of composite measures developed using statistical models to differentiate progressive cognitive deterioration in Huntington's disease (HD) from natural decline in healthy controls. Using longitudinal data from TRACK-HD, the optimal combinations of quantitative cognitive measures to differentiate premanifest and early stage HD individuals respectively from controls was determined using logistic regression. Composite scores were calculated from the parameters of each statistical model. Linear regression models were used to calculate effect sizes (ES) quantifying the difference in longitudinal change over 24 months between premanifest and early stage HD groups respectively and controls. ES for the composites were compared with ES for individual cognitive outcomes and other measures used in HD research. The 0.632 bootstrap was used to eliminate biases which result from developing and testing models in the same sample. In early HD, the composite score from the HD change prediction model produced an ES for difference in rate of 24-month change relative to controls of 1.14 (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.39), larger than the ES for any individual cognitive outcome and UHDRS Total Motor Score and Total Functional Capacity. In addition, this composite gave a statistically significant difference in rate of change in premanifest HD compared to controls over 24-months (ES: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.44), even though none of the individual cognitive outcomes produced statistically significant ES over this period. Composite scores developed using appropriate statistical modelling techniques have the potential to materially reduce required sample sizes for randomised controlled trials.
Levine, John E.; Braun, Thomas M.; Harris, Andrew C.; Holler, Ernst; Taylor, Austin; Miller, Holly; Magenau, John; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Ho, Vincent T.; Bolaños-Meade, Javier; Alousi, Amin M.; Ferrara, L.M.
SUMMARY Background Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is the major cause of non-relapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HCT). The severity of symptoms at the onset of GVHD does not accurately define risk, and thus most patients are treated alike with high dose systemic corticosteroids. We aimed to define clinically meaningful risk strata for patients with newly diagnosed acute GVHD using plasma biomarkers. Methods We prospectively collected plasma from 492 HCT patients with newly diagnosed acute GVHD and randomly divided them into training (n=328) and test (n=164) sets. We used the concentrations of three recently validated biomarkers (TNFR1, ST2, and REG3α) to create an algorithm that computed the probability of NRM six months after GVHD onset for individual patients in the training set alone. We rank ordered the probabilities and identified thresholds that created three distinct NRM scores. We evaluated the algorithm in the testset, and again in an independent validation set of 300 additional HCT patients enrolled on multicenter clinical trials of primary therapy for acute GVHD. Findings In all three datasets, the cumulative incidence of twelve month NRM significantly increased as the GVHD score increased (8% [95% confidence interval (CI); 3%, 16%], 27% [95% CI; 20%%, 34%], and 46% [95% CI; 33%, 58%], for scores 1, 2 and 3 respectively in the multicenter validation set, p<0 · 0001). Conversely, the response rates to primary GVHD treatment decreased as the GVHD score increased (86%, 67%, and 46%, for scores 1, 2 and 3 respectively in the multicenter validation set, p<0 · 0001). Interpretation Biomarker-based scores can be used to guide risk-adapted therapy at the onset of acute GVHD. PMID:26687425
Chiba, Mitsuro; Nakane, Kunio; Takayama, Yuko; Sugawara, Kae; Ohno, Hideo; Ishii, Hajime; Tsuda, Satoko; Tsuji, Tsuyotoshi; Komatsu, Masafumi; Sugawara, Takeshi
Plant-based diets (PBDs) are a healthy alternative to westernized diets. A semivegetarian diet, a PBD, has been shown to prevent a relapse in Crohn disease. However, there is no way to measure adherence to PBDs. To develop a simple way of evaluating adherence to a PBD for Japanese patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). PBD scores were assigned according to the frequency of consumption provided on a food-frequency questionnaire, obtained on hospitalization for 159 patients with ulcerative colitis and 70 patients with Crohn disease. Eight items considered to be preventive factors for IBD were scored positively, and 8 items considered to be IBD risk factors were scored negatively. The PBD score was calculated from the sum of plus and minus scores. Higher PBD scores indicated greater adherence to a PBD. The PBD scores were evaluated on hospitalization and 2 years after discharge for 22 patients with Crohn disease whose dietary pattern and prognosis were established. Plant-Based Diet score. The PBD scores differed significantly, in descending order, by dietary type: pro-Japanese diet, mixed type, and pro-westernized diet (Wilcoxon/Kruskal-Wallis test). The PBD scores in the ulcerative colitis and Crohn disease groups were 10.9 ± 9.5 and 8.2 ± 8.2, respectively. For patients with Crohn disease, those with long-term remission and normal C-reactive protein concentration were significantly more likely to have PBD scores of 25 or greater than below 25 (χ(2)). The PBD score is a valid assessment of PBD dietary adherence.
Chiba, Mitsuro; Nakane, Kunio; Takayama, Yuko; Sugawara, Kae; Ohno, Hideo; Ishii, Hajime; Tsuda, Satoko; Tsuji, Tsuyotoshi; Komatsu, Masafumi; Sugawara, Takeshi
Context Plant-based diets (PBDs) are a healthy alternative to westernized diets. A semivegetarian diet, a PBD, has been shown to prevent a relapse in Crohn disease. However, there is no way to measure adherence to PBDs. Objective To develop a simple way of evaluating adherence to a PBD for Japanese patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Design PBD scores were assigned according to the frequency of consumption provided on a food-frequency questionnaire, obtained on hospitalization for 159 patients with ulcerative colitis and 70 patients with Crohn disease. Eight items considered to be preventive factors for IBD were scored positively, and 8 items considered to be IBD risk factors were scored negatively. The PBD score was calculated from the sum of plus and minus scores. Higher PBD scores indicated greater adherence to a PBD. The PBD scores were evaluated on hospitalization and 2 years after discharge for 22 patients with Crohn disease whose dietary pattern and prognosis were established. Main Outcome Measure Plant-Based Diet score. Results The PBD scores differed significantly, in descending order, by dietary type: pro-Japanese diet, mixed type, and pro-westernized diet (Wilcoxon/Kruskal-Wallis test). The PBD scores in the ulcerative colitis and Crohn disease groups were 10.9 ± 9.5 and 8.2 ± 8.2, respectively. For patients with Crohn disease, those with long-term remission and normal C-reactive protein concentration were significantly more likely to have PBD scores of 25 or greater than below 25 (χ2). Conclusion The PBD score is a valid assessment of PBD dietary adherence. PMID:27768566
Welty, Christopher J; Sanford, Thomas H; Wright, Jonathan L; Carroll, Peter R; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Meng, Maxwell V; Porten, Sima P
Risk stratification of patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) after cystectomy has important clinical and research implications. The authors assessed the relative effect of tumor stage and lymph node status on cancer-specific survival (CSS) after cystectomy and developed a simplified risk-assessment tool. In total, 14,828 patients who underwent cystectomy with lymph node dissection for UCB were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1988-2011). The relative importance of tumor stage and lymph node status with regard to CSS was assessed using stratified Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards analyses. The patients were split randomly into development and validation cohorts. Additional validation using overall survival was performed on 19,362 patients from the National Cancer Data Base. The Cancer of Bladder Risk Assessment (COBRA) tool was created using a Cox model incorporating age, tumor stage, and lymph node density. Performance was validated using observed versus expected survival plots and the Harrell concordance index. Patients with muscle invasive (T2), lymph node-positive disease had a survival curve similar to that in patients with extravesical (T3 and T4), lymph node-negative disease (2-year CSS, 67% and 70%, respectively). Each point increase in the COBRA score (range, 0-7) was associated with a 1.61-fold increase (95% confidence interval, 1.56-fold to 1.65-fold increase) in the risk of bladder cancer death in the development cohort. The model accurately stratified patients across risk levels in the development cohort and the 2 validation cohorts (C-index, 0.712, 0.705, and 0.68, respectively). The COBRA score offers a straightforward, validated risk-stratification tool that incorporates the relative contribution of tumor stage and lymph node involvement to patient prognosis after cystectomy for UCB. Cancer 2017. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.
Hijazi, Ziad; Lindbäck, Johan; Alexander, John H.; Hanna, Michael; Held, Claes; Hylek, Elaine M.; Lopes, Renato D.; Oldgren, Jonas; Siegbahn, Agneta; Stewart, Ralph A.H.; White, Harvey D.; Granger, Christopher B.; Wallentin, Lars
Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, which is currently estimated by clinical characteristics. The cardiac biomarkers N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin high-sensitivity (cTn-hs) are independently associated with risk of stroke in AF. Our objective was to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve prognostication of stroke in patients with AF. Methods and results A new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 701 patients with AF and biomarkers levels determined at baseline, median follow-up of 1.9 years. Biomarkers and clinical variables significantly contributing to predicting stroke or systemic embolism were assessed by Cox-regression and each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. External validation was performed in 1400 patients with AF, median follow-up of 3.4 years. The most important predictors were prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, NT-proBNP, cTn-hs, and age, which were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) stroke risk score. The ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than the widely used CHA2DS2-VASc score in both the derivation cohort (0.68 vs. 0.62, P < 0.001) and the external validation cohort (0.66 vs. 0.58, P < 0.001). Moreover, the ABC-stroke score consistently provided higher c-indices in several important subgroups. Conclusion A novel biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in AF was successfully developed and internally validated in a large cohort of patients with AF and further externally validated in an independent AF cohort. The ABC-stroke score performed better than the presently used clinically based risk score and may provide improved decision support in AF. ClinicalTrials. gov identifier NCT00412984, NCT00799903. PMID:26920728
Mohan, Viswanathan; Anbalagan, Viknesh Prabu
The Indian Diabetes Risk Score was initially developed by the Madras Diabetes Research Foundation (MDRF-IDRS) to help detect undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the community. Soon it was found that the MDRF-IDRS could also help to predict incident diabetes, metabolic syndrome, coronary artery disease (CAD), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease as well as sleep disorders in the community. It helps to differentiate T2DM from non-T2DM. Finally, it also helps to identify those with CAD, peripheral vascular disease and neuropathy among those with T2DM. Thus, the MDRF-IDRS is a simple, virtually 'no cost' tool which is useful in several clinical and epidemiological settings.
Lin, Otto S
Risk stratification for colorectal cancer screening would allow us to use less expensive screening tests, such as sigmoidoscopy with or without fecal blood testing, on lower risk individuals, and reserve colonoscopy for those at higher risk. In this issue, Levitzky et al. validates a risk score that was previously developed by Imperiale et al., finding similar results among three ethnic groups. Risk scoring would detect 82-87% of proximal advanced neoplasia while decreasing colonoscopy use by 33-46%. However, before risk scoring is ready for widespread use, sigmoidoscopy access and performance issues need to be addressed, and we must be comfortable with missing some proximal neoplasms.
Leininger, Matthieu; Tenenbaum, Henri; Davideau, Jean-Luc
The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical predictive value of the periodontal risk assessment diagram surface (PRAS) score and the influence of patient compliance on the treatment outcomes. Thirty subjects suffering from periodontitis were re-examined 6-12 years after the initial diagnosis and periodontal treatments. The baseline PRAS score was calculated from the initial clinical and radiograph records. Patients were then classified into a low-to-moderate (0-20) or a high-risk group (>20). Patients who did not attend any supportive periodontal therapy were classified into a non-compliant group. PRAS and compliance were correlated to the mean tooth loss (TL)/year and the mean variation in the number of periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PPD) >4 mm. TL was 0.11 for the low-to-moderate-risk group and 0.26 for the high-risk group (p<0.05); PPD number reduction was 2.57 and 2.17, respectively, and bleeding on probing reduction was 6.7% and 23.3%, respectively. Comparing the compliance groups, the PPD number reduction was 3.39 in the compliant group and 1.40 in the non-compliant group (p<0.05). This study showed the reliability of PRAS in evaluating long-term TL and patient susceptibility to periodontal disease. Our data confirmed the positive influence of patient compliance on periodontal treatment outcomes.
Victor, Suma M.; Gnanaraj, Anand; S., VijayaKumar; Deshmukh, Rajendra; Kandasamy, Mani; Janakiraman, Ezhilan; Pandurangi, Ulhas M.; Latchumanadhas, K.; Abraham, Georgi; Mullasari, Ajit S.
Background Contrast induced nephropathy (CIN) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The aim of this study is to evaluate the collective probability of CIN in Indian population by developing a scoring system of several identified risk factors in patients undergoing PCI. Methods This is a prospective single center study of 1200 consecutive patients who underwent PCI from 2008 to 2011. Patients were randomized in 3:1 ratio into development (n = 900) and validation (n = 300) groups. CIN was defined as an increase of ≥25% and/or ≥0.5 mg/dl in serum creatinine at 48 hours after PCI when compared to baseline value. Seven independent predictors of CIN were identified using logistic regression analysis - amount of contrast, diabetes with microangiopathy, hypotension, peripheral vascular disease, albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and anemia. A formula was then developed to identify the probability of CIN using the logistic regression equation. Results The mean (±SD) age was 57.3 (±10.2) years. 83.6% were males. The total incidence of CIN was 9.7% in the development group. The total risk of renal replacement therapy in the study group is 1.1%. Mortality is 0.5%. The risk scoring model correlated well in the validation group (incidence of CIN was 8.7%, sensitivity 92.3%, specificity 82.1%, c statistic 0.95). Conclusion A simple risk scoring equation can be employed to predict the probability of CIN following PCI, applying it to each individual. More vigilant preventive measures can be applied to the high risk candidates. PMID:25443605
Huaman, M A; Kryscio, R J; Fichtenbaum, C J; Henson, D; Salt, E; Sterling, T R; Garvy, B A
Several pathogens have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Whether this occurs with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is unclear. We assessed if tuberculosis disease increased the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified patients with tuberculosis index claims from a large de-identified database of ~15 million adults enrolled in a U.S. commercial insurance policy between 2008 and 2010. Tuberculosis patients were 1:1 matched to patients without tuberculosis claims using propensity scores. We compared the occurrence of index AMI claims between the tuberculosis and non-tuberculosis cohorts using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models. Data on 2026 patients with tuberculosis and 2026 propensity-matched patients without tuberculosis were included. AMI was more frequent in the tuberculosis cohort compared with the non-tuberculosis cohort, 67 (3·3%) vs. 32 (1·6%) AMI cases, respectively, P < 0·01. Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1·98, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1·3-3·0). The results were similar when the analysis was restricted to pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted HR 2·43, 95% CI 1·5-4·1). Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI. CVD risk assessment should be considered in tuberculosis patients. Mechanistic studies of tuberculosis and CVD are warranted.
Rams, T E; Listgarten, M A; Slots, J
The relationship between CPITN sextant scores and periodontitis recurrence at individual tooth sites was evaluated in a longitudinal study in 83 treated adult periodontitis patients receiving systematic 3-month maintenance care. At baseline and semi-annual examinations over 36 months, CPITN scores were assigned to each dentition sextant using probing depths and gingival index scores, and relative periodontal attachment level was assessed at individual tooth sites using an occlusal reference stent. Periodontitis recurrence was defined as any periodontal site exhibiting either a probing depth increase of > or = 3 mm from baseline, or a probing depth increase of > or = 1 mm from baseline together with a loss of relative periodontal attachment of > or = 2 mm from baseline. 49 (59.0%) subjects developed periodontitis recurrence in 147 (29.8%) sextants at 181 (2.2%) individual periodontal sites during the 36-month study period. Baseline CPITN scores of 4 were more common in disease-active subjects than clinically-stable subjects (p = 0.003, t-test), and were associated with a statistically significant 1.66 relative risk of periodontitis recurrence within 36 months. CPITN sextant scores of 3 or 4 showed low specificity and low positive predictive values as indicators of periodontitis recurrence at > or = 1 individual sites within the affected sextant. In comparison, low CPITN sextant scores (0-2) provided high specificity (96.2-100%), high positive predictive values (99.5-100%), and a summary odds ratio of 24.2 as an indicator of clinical stability at all periodontal sites within a given dentition sextant. Changes in sextant scores for CPITN over 6-month periods showed no relationship with periodontitis recurrence at individual periodontal sites. This study suggests that while CPITN is inadequate for detection of periodontitis recurrence, low CPITN scores provide rapid presumptive identification of clinically-stable sextants in adult periodontitis patients on maintenance
Ramírez-Prado, Dolores; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Carbonell-Torregrosa, María Ángeles; Martínez-Díaz, Ana María; Martínez-St. John, Damian Robert James; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco
As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status. The sample was selected randomly between 2010 and 2012. The primary outcome was time to cardiovascular disease. Other variables (at baseline) were gender, age, heart failure, renal failure, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin, smoking, admission for cardiovascular causes, pills per day, walking habit, fasting blood glucose and creatinine. A cardiovascular risk table was constructed based on the score to estimate the likelihood of cardiovascular disease. Risk groups were established and the c-statistic was calculated. Over a mean follow-up of 2.31 years, 39 patients had cardiovascular disease (34.8%, 95% CI [26.0–43.6%]). Predictive factors were gender, age, hypertension, renal failure, insulin, admission due to cardiovascular reasons and walking habit. The c-statistic was 0.734 (standard error: 0.049). After validation, this study will provide a tool for the primary health care services to enable the short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease after hospital discharge in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. PMID:26056618
Horne, Benjamin D; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Ridker, Paul M; Paynter, Nina P
Previously, we showed that sex-specific complete blood count (CBC) risk scores strongly predicted risk of all-cause mortality in multiple sets of general medical patients. This study evaluated the CBC risk score in an independent, well-studied international primary risk population of lower-risk individuals initially free from cardiovascular (CV) disease. Observational secondary analysis of a randomized trial population. The previously derived and validated CBC score was evaluated for association with all-cause mortality among CV disease-free females (n = 6568) and males (n = 10,629) enrolled for up to 5 years in the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER) trial. Associations of the CBC score with CV mortality and with major CV disease were also tested. The CBC score predicted all-cause mortality, with univariable hazard ratio (HR) 4.83 (95% CI 3.70-6.31) for the third CBC score tertile vs. the first tertile, and HR 2.31 (CI 1.75-3.05) for the second tertile (p trend < 0.001). The CBC score retained significance after adjustment: HR 1.97 (CI 1.46-2.67) and 1.51 (CI 1.13-2.00) for tertiles 3 and 2 vs. 1, respectively (p trend < 0.001). The CBC score also predicted CV mortality (p trend = 0.025) and the primary JUPITER endpoint (p trend = 0.015). c-statistics for mortality were 0.729 among all, and 0.722 and 0.750 for females and males, respectively. The CBC risk score was strongly associated with all-cause mortality among JUPITER trial participants and had good discrimination. It also predicted CV-specific outcomes. This CBC score may be useful in identifying cardiac disease-free individuals at increased risk of mortality. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.
Sutcliffe, Robert P; Hollyman, Marianne; Hodson, James; Bonney, Glenn; Vohra, Ravi S; Griffiths, Ewen A
Laparoscopic cholecystectomy is commonly performed, and several factors increase the risk of open conversion, prolonging operating time and hospital stay. Preoperative stratification would improve consent, scheduling and identify appropriate training cases. The aim of this study was to develop a validated risk score for conversion for use in clinical practice. Preoperative patient and disease-related variables were identified from a prospective cholecystectomy database (CholeS) of 8820 patients, divided into main and validation sets. Preoperative predictors of conversion were identified by multivariable binary logistic regression. A risk score was developed and validated using a forward stepwise approach. Some 297 procedures (3.4%) were converted. The risk score was derived from six significant predictors: age (p = 0.005), sex (p < 0.001), indication for surgery (p < 0.001), ASA (p < 0.001), thick-walled gallbladder (p = 0.040) and CBD diameter (p = 0.004). Testing the score on the validation set yielded an AUROC = 0.766 (p < 0.001), and a score >6 identified patients at high risk of conversion (7.1% vs. 1.2%). This validated risk score allows preoperative identification of patients at six-fold increased risk of conversion to open cholecystectomy. Copyright © 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Berry, Jarett D.; Dyer, Alan; Cai, Xuan; Garside, Daniel B.; Ning, Hongyan; Thomas, Avis; Greenland, Philip; Van Horn, Linda; Tracy, Russell P.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.
BACKGROUND The lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease have not been reported across the age spectrum in black adults and white adults. METHODS We conducted a meta-analysis at the individual level using data from 18 cohort studies involving a total of 257,384 black men and women and white men and women whose risk factors for cardiovascular disease were measured at the ages of 45, 55, 65, and 75 years. Blood pressure, cholesterol level, smoking status, and diabetes status were used to stratify participants according to risk factors into five mutually exclusive categories. The remaining lifetime risks of cardiovascular events were estimated for participants in each category at each age, with death free of cardiovascular disease treated as a competing event. RESULTS We observed marked differences in the lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease across risk-factor strata. Among participants who were 55 years of age, those with an optimal risk-factor profile (total cholesterol level, <180 mg per deciliter [4.7 mmol per liter]; blood pressure, <120 mm Hg systolic and 80 mm Hg diastolic; nonsmoking status; and nondiabetic status) had substantially lower risks of death from cardiovascular disease through the age of 80 years than participants with two or more major risk factors (4.7% vs. 29.6% among men, 6.4% vs. 20.5% among women). Those with an optimal risk-factor profile also had lower lifetime risks of fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction (3.6% vs. 37.5% among men, <1% vs. 18.3% among women) and fatal or nonfatal stroke (2.3% vs. 8.3% among men, 5.3% vs. 10.7% among women). Similar trends within risk-factor strata were observed among blacks and whites and across diverse birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Differences in risk-factor burden translate into marked differences in the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease, and these differences are consistent across race and birth cohorts. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.) PMID
Haukoos, Jason S.; Lyons, Michael S.; Lindsell, Christopher J.; Hopkins, Emily; Bender, Brooke; Rothman, Richard E.; Hsieh, Yu-Hsiang; MacLaren, Lynsay A.; Thrun, Mark W.; Sasson, Comilla; Byyny, Richard L.
Targeted screening remains an important approach to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing. The authors aimed to derive and validate an instrument to accurately identify patients at risk for HIV infection, using patient data from a metropolitan sexually transmitted disease clinic in Denver, Colorado (1996–2008). With multivariable logistic regression, they developed a risk score from 48 candidate variables using newly identified HIV infection as the outcome. Validation was performed using an independent population from an urban emergency department in Cincinnati, Ohio. The derivation sample included 92,635 patients; 504 (0.54%) were diagnosed with HIV infection. The validation sample included 22,983 patients; 168 (0.73%) were diagnosed with HIV infection. The final score included age, gender, race/ethnicity, sex with a male, vaginal intercourse, receptive anal intercourse, injection drug use, and past HIV testing, and values ranged from −14 to +81. For persons with scores of <20, 20–29, 30–39, 40–49, and ≥50, HIV prevalences were 0.31% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.20, 0.45) (n = 27/8,782), 0.41% (95% CI: 0.29, 0.57) (n = 36/8,677), 0.99% (95% CI: 0.63, 1.47) (n = 24/2,431), 1.59% (95% CI: 1.02, 2.36) (n = 24/1,505), and 3.59% (95% CI: 2.73, 4.63) (n = 57/1,588), respectively. The risk score accurately categorizes patients into groups with increasing probabilities of HIV infection. PMID:22431561
Perez, Hernan A; Garcia, Nestor Horacio; Spence, John David; Armando, Luis J
Cardiovascular events (CE) due to atherosclerosis are preventable. Identification of high-risk patients helps to focus resources on those most likely to benefit from expensive therapy. Atherosclerosis is not considered for patient risk categorization, even though a fraction of CE are predicted by Framingham risk factors. Our objective was to assess the incremental value of combining total plaque area (TPA) with the Framingham risk score (FramSc) using post-test probability (Ptp) in order to categorize risk in patients without CE and identify those at high risk and requiring intensive treatment. A descriptive cross-sectional study was performed in the primary care setting in an Argentine population aged 22-90 years without CE. Both FramSc based on body mass index and Ptp-TPA were employed in 2035 patients for risk stratification and the resulting reclassification was compared. Total plaque area was measured with a high-resolution duplex ultrasound scanner. 57% male, 35% hypertensive, 27% hypercholesterolemia, 14% diabetes. 20.1% were low, 28.5% moderate, and 51.5% high risk. When patients were reclassified, 36% of them changed status; 24.1% migrated to a higher and 13.6% to a lower risk level (κ index = 0.360, SE κ = 0.16, p < 0.05, FramSc vs. Ptp-TPA). With this reclassification, 19.3% were low, 18.9% moderate and 61.8% high risk. Quantification of Ptp-TPA leads to higher risk estimation than FramSc, suggesting that Ptp-TPA may be more sensitive than FramSc as a screening tool. If our observation is confirmed with a prospective study, this reclassification would improve the long-term benefits related to CE prevention.
Conran, Carly A; Na, Rong; Chen, Haitao; Jiang, Deke; Lin, Xiaoling; Zheng, S Lilly; Brendler, Charles B; Xu, Jianfeng
Several different approaches are available to clinicians for determining prostate cancer (PCa) risk. The clinical validity of various PCa risk assessment methods utilizing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has been established; however, these SNP-based methods have not been compared. The objective of this study was to compare the three most commonly used SNP-based methods for PCa risk assessment. Participants were men (n = 1654) enrolled in a prospective study of PCa development. Genotypes of 59 PCa risk-associated SNPs were available in this cohort. Three methods of calculating SNP-based genetic risk scores (GRSs) were used for the evaluation of individual disease risk such as risk allele count (GRS-RAC), weighted risk allele count (GRS-wRAC), and population-standardized genetic risk score (GRS-PS). Mean GRSs were calculated, and performances were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive predictive value (PPV). All SNP-based methods were found to be independently associated with PCa (all P < 0.05; hence their clinical validity). The mean GRSs in men with or without PCa using GRS-RAC were 55.15 and 53.46, respectively, using GRS-wRAC were 7.42 and 6.97, respectively, and using GRS-PS were 1.12 and 0.84, respectively (all P < 0.05 for differences between patients with or without PCa). All three SNP-based methods performed similarly in discriminating PCa from non-PCa based on AUC and in predicting PCa risk based on PPV (all P > 0.05 for comparisons between the three methods), and all three SNP-based methods had a significantly higher AUC than family history (all P < 0.05). Results from this study suggest that while the three most commonly used SNP-based methods performed similarly in discriminating PCa from non-PCa at the population level, GRS-PS is the method of choice for risk assessment at the individual level because its value (where 1.0 represents average population risk) can be easily interpreted regardless
Kang, Hyung Koo; Park, Hye Yun; Jeong, Byeong-Ho; Koh, Won-Jung; Lim, Seong Yong
Abstract Impaired lung function is a risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) events. However, it has not been well established whether FVC reduction even within normal range is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and whether reduced FVC is an independent relationship of CVD irrespective of metabolic syndrome. Thus, we aimed to explore the relationship between FVC and CV-event risk using the FRS beyond the presence of metabolic syndrome or abdominal obesity in a representative Korean population based on data from the nationwide Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV). The study population included 9688 subjects ≥ 30 years of age with no previous diagnosis of CVD and obstructive lung disease. Using a logistic regression model and area under the curve (AUC) analysis, we evaluated the relationship between FVC quintiles and CV-event risk using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS; ≥ 10% or ≥ 20%). In addition, we examined the effect of FVC on CV-event risk based on the presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and abdominal obesity. After adjusting for covariates, comparison of subjects in the lowest FVC (% pred) quintile (Q1) with those in the highest quintile (Q5) yielded an odds ratio (OR) of 2.27 (95% CI, 1.91–2.71) for intermediate and high risk, and 2.89 (95% CI, 2.31–3.61) for high risk. The ORs for cardiovascular risk using FRS also increased irrespective of the presence of abdominal obesity and MetS without significant interaction. Furthermore, the addition of FVC status to MetS status and abdominal obesity status significantly increased the AUC of the model predicting CV-event risk (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001). Our study demonstrates that FVC is inversely associated with 10-year CV-event risk, irrespective of MetS and abdominal obesity in the general population without obstructive lung disease. Furthermore, the addition of FVC to MetS or abdominal obesity increased prediction of CVD event risks, implying a potential
Genco, Robert J; Borgnakke, Wenche S
Risk factors play an important role in an individual's response to periodontal infection. Identification of these risk factors helps to target patients for prevention and treatment, with modification of risk factors critical to the control of periodontal disease. Shifts in our understanding of periodontal disease prevalence, and advances in scientific methodology and statistical analysis in the last few decades, have allowed identification of several major systemic risk factors for periodontal disease. The first change in our thinking was the understanding that periodontal disease is not universal, but that severe forms are found only in a portion of the adult population who show abnormal susceptibility. Analysis of risk factors and the ability to statistically adjust and stratify populations to eliminate the effects of confounding factors have allowed identification of independent risk factors. These independent but modifiable, risk factors for periodontal disease include lifestyle factors, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. They also include diseases and unhealthy conditions such as diabetes mellitus, obesity, metabolic syndrome, osteoporosis, and low dietary calcium and vitamin D. These risk factors are modifiable and their management is a major component of the contemporary care of many periodontal patients. Genetic factors also play a role in periodontal disease and allow one to target individuals for prevention and early detection. The role of genetic factors in aggressive periodontitis is clear. However, although genetic factors (i.e., specific genes) are strongly suspected to have an association with chronic adult periodontitis, there is as yet no clear evidence for this in the general population. It is important to pursue efforts to identify genetic factors associated with chronic periodontitis because such factors have potential in identifying patients who have a high susceptibility for development of this disease. Many of the systemic risk factors
Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Bulló, Mònica; Costa, Bernardo; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel Ángel; Ibarrola-Jurado, Núria; Estruch, Ramon; Barrio, Francisco; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi
Introduction To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC). Results The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. Discussion We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire. PMID:22442692
Bultron, Gilberto; Kacena, Katherine; Pearson, Daniel; Boxer, Michael; Yang, Ruhua; Sathe, Swati; Pastores, Gregory; Mistry, Pramod K
In Gaucher disease, defective lysosomal glucocerebrosidase due to mutations in the GBA1 gene results in lysosomal accumulation of glucocerebroside in mononuclear phagocytes and a multisystemic phenotype. Observations of occurrence of Parkinson's disease in some patients with non-neuronopathic type 1 Gaucher disease (GD1) and their first degree relatives has led to the identification of GBA1 heterozygous mutations as a genetic risk factor for idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD). However, the magnitude of risk of PD in patients with known GD1 has not been determined, and it is not known whether GD1/PD represents a specific sub-phenotype of GD1 with distinctive genotype/phenotype characteristics. We estimated the risk of PD in a cohort of 444 consecutively evaluated patients with GD1 compared to that in the general population. Eleven patients developed parkinsonian syndrome during a 12-year follow-up period. The adjusted life-time risk ratio of PD in GD1 compared to that in the general population was 21.4 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 10.7-38.3], with a higher risk in men compared to women. In our cohort, GD1/Parkinson's disease phenotype (GD1/PD) was characterized by higher GD1 severity score, due to higher incidence of avascular osteonecrosis. The clinical spectrum of PD varied from mild to potentially life-threatening disease. All but one patient with GD1/PD phenotype had at least one N370S GBA1 allele. In conclusion, compared to the general population, patients with GD1 have an almost 20-fold increased life-time risk of developing PD.
Krafcik, Brianna M; Farber, Alik; Eslami, Mohammad H; Kalish, Jeffrey A; Rybin, Denis; Doros, Gheorghe; King, Elizabeth G; Siracuse, Jeffrey J
The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been traditionally utilized to prioritize for liver transplantation; however, recent literature has shown its value in predicting surgical outcomes for patients with hepatic dysfunction. The benefit of carotid endarterectomy in asymptomatic patients is dependent on low perioperative morbidity. Our objective was to use MELD score to predict outcomes in asymptomatic patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy. Patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data sets from 2005 to 2012. The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease score was calculated using serum bilirubin, creatinine, and the international normalized ratio (INR). Patients were grouped into low (<9), moderate (9-14), and high (15+) MELD classifications. The effect of the MELD score on postoperative morbidity and mortality was assessed by multivariable logistic and gamma regressions and propensity matching. There were 7966 patients with asymptomatic carotid endarterectomy identified. The majority 5556 (70%) had a low MELD score, 1952 (25%) had a moderate MELD score, and 458 (5%) had a high MELD score. High MELD score was independently predictive of postoperative death, increased length of stay, need for transfusion, pulmonary complications, and a statistical trend toward increased cardiac arrest/myocardial infarction. The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease score did not affect postoperative stroke, wound complications, or operative time. High MELD score places asymptomatic patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy at a higher risk of adverse outcomes in the 30 days following surgery. This provides further empirical evidence for risk stratification when considering treatment for these patients. Outcomes of medical management or carotid stenting should be investigated in high-risk patients. © The Author(s) 2016.
Cornec-Le Gall, Emilie; Audrézet, Marie-Pierre; Rousseau, Annick; Hourmant, Maryvonne; Renaudineau, Eric; Charasse, Christophe; Morin, Marie-Pascale; Moal, Marie-Christine; Dantal, Jacques; Wehbe, Bassem; Perrichot, Régine; Frouget, Thierry; Vigneau, Cécile; Potier, Jérôme; Jousset, Philippe; Guillodo, Marie-Paule; Siohan, Pascale; Terki, Nazim; Sawadogo, Théophile; Legrand, Didier; Menoyo-Calonge, Victorio; Benarbia, Seddik; Besnier, Dominique; Longuet, Hélène; Férec, Claude
The course of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) varies among individuals, with some reaching ESRD before 40 years of age and others never requiring RRT. In this study, we developed a prognostic model to predict renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD on the basis of genetic and clinical data. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1341 patients from the Genkyst cohort and evaluated the influence of clinical and genetic factors on renal survival. Multivariate survival analysis identified four variables that were significantly associated with age at ESRD onset, and a scoring system from 0 to 9 was developed as follows: being male: 1 point; hypertension before 35 years of age: 2 points; first urologic event before 35 years of age: 2 points; PKD2 mutation: 0 points; nontruncating PKD1 mutation: 2 points; and truncating PKD1 mutation: 4 points. Three risk categories were subsequently defined as low risk (0–3 points), intermediate risk (4–6 points), and high risk (7–9 points) of progression to ESRD, with corresponding median ages for ESRD onset of 70.6, 56.9, and 49 years, respectively. Whereas a score ≤3 eliminates evolution to ESRD before 60 years of age with a negative predictive value of 81.4%, a score >6 forecasts ESRD onset before 60 years of age with a positive predictive value of 90.9%. This new prognostic score accurately predicts renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD and may enable the personalization of therapeutic management of ADPKD. PMID:26150605
Chang, Chun-Ming; Yin, Wen-Yao; Wei, Chang-Kao; Wu, Chin-Chia; Su, Yu-Chieh; Yu, Chia-Hui; Lee, Ching-Chih
Background Identification of patients at risk of death from cancer surgery should aid in preoperative preparation. The purpose of this study is to assess and adjust the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) to identify cancer patients with increased risk of perioperative mortality. Methods We identified 156,151 patients undergoing surgery for one of the ten common cancers between 2007 and 2011 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Half of the patients were randomly selected, and a multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop an adjusted-ACCI score for estimating the risk of 90-day mortality by variables from the original ACCI. The score was validated. The association between the score and perioperative mortality was analyzed. Results The adjusted-ACCI score yield a better discrimination on mortality after cancer surgery than the original ACCI score, with c-statics of 0.75 versus 0.71. Over 80 years of age, 70–80 years, and renal disease had the strongest impact on mortality, hazard ratios 8.40, 3.63, and 3.09 (P < 0.001), respectively. The overall 90-day mortality rates in the entire cohort varied from 0.9%, 2.9%, 7.0%, and 13.2% in four risk groups stratifying by the adjusted-ACCI score; the adjusted hazard ratio for score 4–7, 8–11, and ≥ 12 was 2.84, 6.07, and 11.17 (P < 0.001), respectively, in 90-day mortality compared to score 0–3. Conclusions The adjusted-ACCI score helps to identify patients with a higher risk of 90-day mortality after cancer surgery. It might be particularly helpful for preoperative evaluation of patients over 80 years of age. PMID:26848761
Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B.; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F.; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G.; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; DeStefano, Anita L.; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A.; DeCarli, Charles; Ikram, M. Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, WT; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J
Background and Purpose Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS), prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with stroke and its risk factors. Methods The study includes four population-based cohorts with 2,047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged 55 years and older, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRS were constructed with 324 SNPs implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with Area under the curve (AUC) statistics comparing the GRS to age sex, and FSRS models, and with reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke (IS). Results In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the FSRS, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (All stroke: Δjoint AUC =0.016, p-value=2.3*10-6; IS: Δ joint AUC =0.021, p-value=3.7*10−7), although the overall AUC remained low. In all studies there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (p-values <10−4). Conclusions The SNPs associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared to the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke. PMID:24436238
Katayama, Hirohito; Toda, Atsushi; Tokunaga, Yuji; Katoh, Shigeo
Risk assessment of aseptic processing facilities was performed using two published risk assessment tools. Calculated risk scores were compared with experimental test results, including environmental monitoring and media fill run results, in three different types of facilities. The two risk assessment tools used gave a generally similar outcome. However, depending on the tool used, variations were observed in the relative scores between the facilities. For the facility yielding the lowest risk scores, the corresponding experimental test results showed no contamination, indicating that these ordinal testing methods are insufficient to evaluate this kind of facility. A conventional facility having acceptable aseptic processing lines gave relatively high risk scores. The facility showing a rather high risk score demonstrated the usefulness of conventional microbiological test methods. Considering the significant gaps observed in calculated risk scores and in the ordinal microbiological test results between advanced and conventional facilities, we propose a facility categorization based on risk assessment. The most important risk factor in aseptic processing is human intervention. When human intervention is eliminated from the process by advanced hardware design, the aseptic processing facility can be classified into a new risk category that is better suited for assuring sterility based on a new set of criteria rather than on currently used microbiological analysis. To fully benefit from advanced technologies, we propose three risk categories for these aseptic facilities.
Yaprak, Mustafa; Çakır, Özgür; Turan, Mehmet Nuri; Dayanan, Ramazan; Akın, Selçuk; Değirmen, Elif; Yıldırım, Mustafa; Turgut, Faruk
Ultrasonography (US) is an inexpensive, noninvasive and easy imaging procedure to comment on the kidney disease. Data are limited about the relation between estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) and all 3 renal US parameters, including kidney length, parenchymal thickness and parenchymal echogenicity, in chronic kidney disease (CKD). In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between e-GFR and ultrasonographic CKD score calculated via these ultrasonographic parameters. One hundred and twenty patients with stage 1-5 CKD were enrolled in this study. The glomerular filtration rate was estimated by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation. US was performed by the same radiologist who was blinded to patients' histories and laboratory results. US parameters including kidney length, parenchymal thickness and parenchymal echogenicity were obtained from both kidneys. All 3 parameters were scored for each kidney, separately. The sum of the average scores of these parameters was used to calculate ultrasonographic CKD score. The mean age of patients was 63.34 ± 14.19 years. Mean kidney length, parenchymal thickness, ultrasonographic CKD score and median parenchymal echogenicity were found as 96.2 ± 12.3, 10.97 ± 2.59 mm, 6.28 ± 2.52 and 1.0 (0-3.5), respectively. e-GFR was positively correlated with kidney length (r = 0.343, p < 0.001), parenchymal thickness (r = 0.37, p < 0.001) and negatively correlated with CKD score (r = -0.587, p < 0.001) and parenchymal echogenicity (r = -0.683, p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for distinction of e-GFR lower than 60 mL/min showed that the ultrasonographic CKD score higher than 4.75 was the best parameter with the sensitivity of 81% and positive predictivity of 92% (AUC, 0.829; 95% CI, 0.74-0.92; p < 0.001). We found correlation between e-GFR and ultrasonographic CKD score via using all ultrasonographic parameters. Also, our study showed
Daswani, Bhavna; Desai, Meena; Mitra, Sumegha; Gavali, Shubhangi; Patil, Anushree; Kukreja, Subhash; Khatkhatay, M Ikram
Fracture risk assessment tool® calculations can be performed with or without addition of bone mineral density; however, the impact of this addition on fracture risk assessment tool® scores has not been studied in Indian women. Given the limited availability and high cost of bone mineral density testing in India, it is important to know the influence of bone mineral density on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. Therefore, our aim was to assess the contribution of bone mineral density in fracture risk assessment tool® outcome in Indian women. Apparently healthy postmenopausal Indian women (n = 506), aged 40-72 years, without clinical risk factors for bone disease, were retrospectively selected, and their fracture risk assessment tool® scores calculated with and without bone mineral density were compared. Based on WHO criteria, 30% women were osteoporotic, 42.9% were osteopenic and 27.1% had normal bone mineral density. Fracture risk assessment tool® scores for risk of both major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture significantly increased on including bone mineral density (P < 0.0001). When criteria of National Osteoporosis Foundation, US was applied number of participants eligible for medical therapy increased upon inclusion of bone mineral density, (for major osteoporotic fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 0 and with bone mineral density was 1, P > 0.05, whereas, for hip fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 2 and with bone mineral density was 17, P < 0.0001). Until the establishment of country-specific medication intervention thresholds, bone mineral density should be included while calculating fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. © The Author(s) 2016.
Jahromi, Mahdi K; Hojat, Mohsen; Koshkaki, Saiede R; Nazari, Faride; Ragibnejad, Maryam
Identifying and correcting the modifiable risk factors reduces the prevalence of coronary artery disorders (CAD). Nurses, with regards to their employment conditions, can be prone to cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to determine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among nurses. In this cross-sectional study, census sampling was conducted among nurses of Jahrom, Iran, in 2014. Data were collected through interviews, blood pressure measurement, anthropometric parameters, and blood sample collection. To analyze the data, descriptive statistical analysis, and comparative (independent t-test) and correlation (Pearson) tests were used; the significance level was considered to be P < 0.05. In this study, 263 (89.76%) nurses participated, 79.8% of whom were women. The mean age of the participants was 31.04 (6.97). In terms of body mass index, 41.7% was the waist-to-hip ratio, 16.7% was the waist-to-height ratio, and 63.1% were in the range of obesity. In addition, 5.7% had abnormal triglyceride, 4.9% had high cholesterol, and 15.1% had high blood pressure. The mean percentage of the Framingham risk score of the participants was 1.07 (1.84). In this study, the total mean percentage of the Framingham risk score of the nurses was 1.07, which showed a low risk of CAD in the study population over the next decade.
Jahromi, Mahdi K.; Hojat, Mohsen; Koshkaki, Saiede R.; Nazari, Faride; Ragibnejad, Maryam
Background: Identifying and correcting the modifiable risk factors reduces the prevalence of coronary artery disorders (CAD). Nurses, with regards to their employment conditions, can be prone to cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to determine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among nurses. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, census sampling was conducted among nurses of Jahrom, Iran, in 2014. Data were collected through interviews, blood pressure measurement, anthropometric parameters, and blood sample collection. To analyze the data, descriptive statistical analysis, and comparative (independent t-test) and correlation (Pearson) tests were used; the significance level was considered to be P < 0.05. Results: In this study, 263 (89.76%) nurses participated, 79.8% of whom were women. The mean age of the participants was 31.04 (6.97). In terms of body mass index, 41.7% was the waist-to-hip ratio, 16.7% was the waist-to-height ratio, and 63.1% were in the range of obesity. In addition, 5.7% had abnormal triglyceride, 4.9% had high cholesterol, and 15.1% had high blood pressure. The mean percentage of the Framingham risk score of the participants was 1.07 (1.84). Conclusions: In this study, the total mean percentage of the Framingham risk score of the nurses was 1.07, which showed a low risk of CAD in the study population over the next decade. PMID:28904549
von Eckardstein, A
Several controlled interventional trials have shown the benefit of anti-hypertensive and hypolipidaemic drugs for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). International guidelines for the prevention of CHD agree in their recommendations for tertiary prevention and recommend lowering the blood pressure to below 140 mm/90 mm Hg and low density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol to below 2.6 mmol/l in patients with manifest CHD. Novel recommendations for secondary prevention are focused on the treatment of the pre-symptomatic high-risk patient with an estimated CHD morbidity risk of higher than 20% per 10 years or an estimated CHD mortality risk of higher than 5% per 10 years. For the calculation of this risk, the physician must record the following risk factors: sex, age, family history of premature myocardial infarction, smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, and triglyceride. This information allows the absolute risk of myocardial infarction to be computed by using scores or algorithms which have been deduced from results of epidemiological studies. To improve risk prediction and to identify new targets for intervention, novel risk factors are sought. High plasma levels of C-reactive protein has been shown to improve the prognostic value of global risk estimates obtained by the combination of conventional risk factors and may influence treatment decisions in patients with intermediate global cardiovascular risk (CHD morbidity risk of 10%-20% per 10 years or CHD mortality risk of 2%-5% per 10 years).
Modi, Ranjan; Patted, S V; Halkati, P C; Porwal, Sanjay; Ambar, Sameer; Mr, Prasad; Metgudmath, Vijay; Sattur, Ameet
CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores have been used for assessing prognostic risk of thromboembolism in non valvular atrial fibrillation patients. They include similar risk factors for the development of CAD To increase the likelihood of determining CAD severity, the CHA2DS2-VASc-HS and CHA2DS2-VASc-HSF score comprising of hyperlipidemia, smoking and family history respectively in addition to the components of the CHA2DS2-VASc score and male instead of female gender. The aim was to investigate whether these risk scores can be used to predict CAD severity. A total of 2976 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography were enrolled in the study. Presence of >50% stenosis in a coronary artery was assessed as significant CAD. Of the patients,804 had normal coronary angiograms and served as group 1. The remaining 2172 patients with coronary stenosis were further classified into 2 groups according to CAD with stenosis of <50% or >50%: 834 patients with mild CAD as group 2 and 1338 patients with severe CAD as group 3. The scores were significantly different among the 3 groups. All the four scores correlated significantly with the number of diseased and the Gensini score. CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and especially CHA2DS2-VASc-HS and CHA2DS2-VASc-HSF scores could be considered predictive of the risk of severe CAD with CHA2DS2-VASc-HSF the best scoring scheme to predict CAD severity. The risk scoring systems may play an important role as predictive models because they are simple and can be easily applied by physicians without any additional costs in routine practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
de-Torres, Juan P; Wilson, David O; Sanchez-Salcedo, Pablo; Weissfeld, Joel L; Berto, Juan; Campo, Arantzazu; Alcaide, Ana B; García-Granero, Marta; Celli, Bartolome R; Zulueta, Javier J
Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at high risk for lung cancer (LC) and represent a potential target to improve the diagnostic yield of screening programs. To develop a predictive score for LC risk for patients with COPD. The Pamplona International Early Lung Cancer Detection Program (P-IELCAP) and the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) databases were analyzed. Only patients with COPD on spirometry were included. By logistic regression we determined which factors were independently associated with LC in PLuSS and developed a COPD LC screening score (COPD-LUCSS) to be validated in P-IELCAP. By regression analysis, age greater than 60, body mass index less than 25 kg/m(2), pack-years history greater than 60, and emphysema presence were independently associated with LC diagnosis and integrated into the COPD-LUCSS, which ranges from 0 to 10 points. Two COPD-LUCSS risk categories were proposed: low risk (scores 0-6) and high risk (scores 7-10). In comparison with low-risk patients, in both cohorts LC risk increased 3.5-fold in the high-risk category. The COPD-LUCSS is a good predictor of LC risk in patients with COPD participating in LC screening programs. Validation in two different populations adds strength to the findings.
Sarkar, Sahotra; Strutz, Stavana E.; Frank, David M.; Rivaldi, Chissa–Louise; Sissel, Blake; Sánchez–Cordero, Victor
Background Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a serious public health concern in many areas of Latin America, including México. It is also endemic in Texas with an autochthonous canine cycle, abundant vectors (Triatoma species) in many counties, and established domestic and peridomestic cycles which make competent reservoirs available throughout the state. Yet, Chagas disease is not reportable in Texas, blood donor screening is not mandatory, and the serological profiles of human and canine populations remain unknown. The purpose of this analysis was to provide a formal risk assessment, including risk maps, which recommends the removal of these lacunae. Methods and Findings The spatial relative risk of the establishment of autochthonous Chagas disease cycles in Texas was assessed using a five–stage analysis. 1. Ecological risk for Chagas disease was established at a fine spatial resolution using a maximum entropy algorithm that takes as input occurrence points of vectors and environmental layers. The analysis was restricted to triatomine vector species for which new data were generated through field collection and through collation of post–1960 museum records in both México and the United States with sufficiently low georeferenced error to be admissible given the spatial resolution of the analysis (1 arc–minute). The new data extended the distribution of vector species to 10 new Texas counties. The models predicted that Triatoma gerstaeckeri has a large region of contiguous suitable habitat in the southern United States and México, T. lecticularia has a diffuse suitable habitat distribution along both coasts of the same region, and T. sanguisuga has a disjoint suitable habitat distribution along the coasts of the United States. The ecological risk is highest in south Texas. 2. Incidence–based relative risk was computed at the county level using the Bayesian Besag–York–Mollié model and post–1960 T. cruzi incidence data. This risk
Klimentidis, Yann C; Wineinger, Nathan E; Vazquez, Ana I; de Los Campos, Gustavo
CONTEXT/RATIONALE: Meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies have identified many single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with various metabolic and cardiovascular traits, offering us the opportunity to learn about and capitalize on the links between cardiometabolic traits and type 2 diabetes (T2D). In multiple datasets comprising over 30 000 individuals and 3 ethnic/racial groups, we calculated 17 genetic risk scores (GRSs) for glycemic, anthropometric, lipid, hemodynamic, and other traits, based on the results of recent trait-specific meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies, and examined associations with T2D risk. Using a training-testing procedure, we evaluated whether additional GRSs could contribute to risk prediction. In European Americans, we find that GRSs for T2D, fasting glucose, fasting insulin, and body mass index are associated with T2D risk. In African Americans, GRSs for T2D, fasting insulin, and waist-to-hip ratio are associated with T2D. In Hispanic Americans, GRSs for T2D and body mass index are associated with T2D. We observed a trend among European Americans suggesting that genetic risk for hyperlipidemia is inversely associated with T2D risk. The use of additional GRSs resulted in only small changes in prediction accuracy in multiple independent validation datasets. The analysis of multiple GRSs can shed light on T2D etiology and how it varies across ethnic/racial groups. Our findings using multiple GRSs are consistent with what is known about the differences in T2D pathogenesis across racial/ethnic groups. However, further work is needed to understand the putative inverse correlation of genetic risk for hyperlipidemia and T2D risk and to develop ethnic-specific GRSs.
VanWagner, Lisa B; Ning, Hongyan; Whitsett, Maureen; Levitsky, Josh; Uttal, Sarah; Wilkins, John T; Abecassis, Michael M; Ladner, Daniela P; Skaro, Anton I; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the CAR-OLT risk score, among a cohort of 1024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model.Among 1024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included pre-operative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the CAR-OLT point-based score (C statistic=0.78, bias-corrected C statistic=0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.33). The point-based CAR-OLT risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at: www.carolt.us). This score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.
Kanauchi, Masao; Kanauchi, Kimiko
Background The Mediterranean diet (MD) is well known as a healthy diet that protects against several chronic diseases. However, there is no appropriate and easy index to assess adherence to the MD pattern in Japan. Objective The aim of this study was to develop a novel instrument to measure MD adherence adapted to a Japanese diet and to examine its association with overweight/obesity risk. Methods A cross-sectional nutritional survey provided the data for construction of a novel MD score. In total, 1,048 subjects who were employees and university students, aged 18–68 years (645 men and 403 women), completed a 58-item brief-type self-administered dietary history questionnaire. We constructed a Japanese-adapted MD score (jMD score) focusing on 13 components. Adherence to the jMD was categorized as low (score 0–4), moderate (5–7), or high (8–13). Results Men had higher jMD scores than women, and adherence to the jMD score increased with age. Only 11.6% of subjects showed high adherence to the jMD, whereas 29.6% showed low adherence. A higher jMD adherence was associated with a higher intake of favorable nutrients with the exception of salt. The jMD adherence was significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity for the highest category compared with lowest category (odds ratio [OR] 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30–0.85, p-trend=0.017) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and hypertension. A two-point increment in jMD score was related to a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity with an odds ratio of 0.76 (95% CI 0.65–0.90, p=0.002). Conclusions Our novel jMD score confirmed reasonable associations with nutrient intakes, and higher MD adherence was associated with a lower prevalence of overweight/obesity. PMID:27806831
Kanauchi, Masao; Kanauchi, Kimiko
The Mediterranean diet (MD) is well known as a healthy diet that protects against several chronic diseases. However, there is no appropriate and easy index to assess adherence to the MD pattern in Japan. The aim of this study was to develop a novel instrument to measure MD adherence adapted to a Japanese diet and to examine its association with overweight/obesity risk. A cross-sectional nutritional survey provided the data for construction of a novel MD score. In total, 1,048 subjects who were employees and university students, aged 18-68 years (645 men and 403 women), completed a 58-item brief-type self-administered dietary history questionnaire. We constructed a Japanese-adapted MD score (jMD score) focusing on 13 components. Adherence to the jMD was categorized as low (score 0-4), moderate (5-7), or high (8-13). Men had higher jMD scores than women, and adherence to the jMD score increased with age. Only 11.6% of subjects showed high adherence to the jMD, whereas 29.6% showed low adherence. A higher jMD adherence was associated with a higher intake of favorable nutrients with the exception of salt. The jMD adherence was significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity for the highest category compared with lowest category (odds ratio [OR] 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.85, p-trend=0.017) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and hypertension. A two-point increment in jMD score was related to a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity with an odds ratio of 0.76 (95% CI 0.65-0.90, p=0.002). Our novel jMD score confirmed reasonable associations with nutrient intakes, and higher MD adherence was associated with a lower prevalence of overweight/obesity.
Jorm, A F
Only four risk factors for Alzheimer's disease can be regarded as confirmed--old age, family history of dementia, apo-E genotype and Down syndrome. Other disputed risk factors with some supporting evidence include ethnic group, head trauma and aluminium in drinking water. Possible protection factors, such as anti-inflammatory drugs, oestrogen replacement therapy and a high education level, are of great interest because they suggest possible preventive action.
Menon, Vidya P.; Edathadathil, Fabia; Sathyapalan, Dipu; Moni, Merlin; Don, Ann; Balachandran, Sabarish; Pushpa, Binny; Prasanna, Preetha; Sivaram, Nithu; Nair, Anupama; Vinod, Nithu; Jayaprasad, Rekha; Menon, Veena
Abstract Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death and disability in India. Early and sustained exposure to behavioral risk factors leads to development of CVDs. The aim of this study was to determine the baseline risk of a “hard CVD event” in subjects attending comprehensive health clinic and assess behavioral characteristics in “at risk” population. Using WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance modified questionnaire, prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and risk factors was estimated in this cross-sectional study of 4507 subjects. Baseline cardiovascular risk was determined using Framingham risk score (FRS) and American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) algorithms. Modifiable behavior associated with high CVD risk was assessed. Among 40 to 59-year olds, ASCVD risk tool derived both a 10-year and lifetime risk score, which were used to stratify the cohort into 3 risk groups, namely, a high 10-year and high lifetime, a low 10-year and high lifetime, and a low 10-year and low lifetime risks. Dyslipidemia (30.6%), hypertension (25.5%), diabetes mellitus (20%), and obstructive airway disorders (17.6%) were most prevalent NCDs in our cohort. The ASCVD score stratified 26.1% subjects into high 10-yr and 59.5% into high lifetime risk while FRS classified 17.2% into high 10-year risk. Compared with FRS, the ASCVD risk estimator identified a larger proportion of subjects “at risk” of developing CVD. A high prevalence of alcohol use (38.4%), decreased intake of fruits and vegetables (96.2%) and low physical activity (58%) were observed in “at risk” population. Logistic regression analysis showed that in 40 to 59-year group, regular and occasional drinkers were 8.5- and 3.1-fold more likely to be in high 10-year and high lifetime ASCVD risk category than in low 10-year and low lifetime risk group. Similarly, regular drinkers and occasional drinkers were 2
Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; Abu Assi, Emad; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Díaz-Infante, Ernesto; García-Bolao, Ignacio; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Andrés Lahuerta, Ana; Expósito-García, Víctor; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Arce-León, Álvaro; Barrio-López, María Teresa; Peinado, Rafael; Martínez-Sande, Luis; Arias, Miguel A
Several clinical risk scores have been developed to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality despite implantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We aimed to examine and compare the predictive capacity of 4 simple scoring systems (MADIT-II, FADES, PACE and SHOCKED) for predicting mortality after defibrillator implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in a Mediterranean country. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutive patients referred for defibrillator implantation between January 2010 and December 2011 were included. A total of 916 patients with ischemic and nonischemic heart disease were included (mean age, 62 ± 11 years, 81.4% male). Over 33.4 ± 12.9 months, 113 (12.3%) patients died (cardiovascular origin in 86 [9.4%] patients). At 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, mortality rates were 4.5%, 7.6%, 10.8%, and 12.3% respectively. All the risk scores showed a stepwise increase in the risk of death throughout the scoring system of each of the scores and all 4 scores identified patients at greater risk of mortality. The scores were significantly associated with all-cause mortality throughout the follow-up period. PACE displayed the lowest c-index value regardless of whether the population had heart disease of ischemic (c-statistic = 0.61) or nonischemic origin (c-statistic = 0.61), whereas MADIT-II (c-statistic = 0.67 and 0.65 in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy, respectively), SHOCKED (c-statistic = 0.68 and 0.66, respectively), and FADES (c-statistic = 0.66 and 0.60) provided similar c-statistic values (P ≥ .09). In this nontrial-based cohort of Mediterranean patients, the 4 evaluated risk scores showed a significant stepwise increase in the risk of death. Among the currently available risk scores, MADIT-II, FADES, and SHOCKED provide slightly better performance than PACE. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All
Zhang, Jie; Lu, Fanggen; Ouyang, Chunhui; Cheng, Zongyong; Wang, Xuehong; Liu, Xiaowei
To understand the value of Child-Pugh (CP) classification and model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score for patients with cirrhosis and their prognosis by retrospectively analyzing the two methods in hemorrhage death and non-hemorrhage death in patients with liver cirrhosis. A total of 72 patients who died of cirrhosis (the death group) were analyzed retrospectively, and the initial data in the hospital before death were collected. The initial information of the control group (88 patients) at the same time was also obtained. The death group was divided into two subgroups: esophagus varicosity burst massive hemorrhage death group and non-hemorrhage death group. MELD score and CP score of the death group (22.230±13.451, 10.264±2.028) were significantly higher than those of the control group (15.370±6.201, 9.318±1.644; P<0.05). The MELD score and CP score for the massive bleeding death group were close to those of the control group. There was significant difference between the non-hemorrhage death group and the control group. The ratio of patients with CP grade A and MELD scores<20 died for massive bleeding in the death group was more than 70%, and that of CP grade C and MELD scores ≥ 30 in the death group was higher. ROC surve analysis found the accuracy of short-term predication of survival by MELD score and CP classification was improved after eliminating the risk factors of hemorrage. MELD and CP play a role in evaluating the state and prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. MELD score and CP classification predict the short-term survival efficiently on the premise of excluding the risk factors of esophagus and/or stomach bottom varicosity burst massive bleeding. CP and MELD scores are deficiencies, especially for low MELD score (<20) and CP level A patients. The prognostic accuracy may be improved when combining esophageal gastric fundal varices.
Sato, Toshihiko; Kondo, Haruhiko; Watanabe, Atsushi; Nakajima, Jun; Niwa, Hiroshi; Horio, Hirotoshi; Okami, Jiro; Okumura, Norihito; Sugio, Kenji; Teramukai, Satoshi; Kishi, Kazuma; Ebina, Masahito; Sugiyama, Yukihiko; Kondo, Takashi; Date, Hiroshi
Lung cancer patients with interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) who have undergone pulmonary resection often develop acute exacerbation of interstitial pneumonia (AE) in the post-operative period. To predict who is at high risk of AE, we propose a scoring system that evaluates the risk of AE in lung cancer patients with ILDs. We derived a score for 30-day risk of AE onset after pulmonary resection in lung cancer patients with ILDs (n = 1,022; outcome: risk of AE) based on seven risk factors for AE that were identified in a previous retrospective multi-institutional cohort study. A logistic regression model was employed to develop a risk prediction model for AE. A risk score (RS) was derived: 5 × (history of AE) + 4 × (surgical procedures) + 4 × (UIP appearance in CT scan) + 3 × (male sex) + 3 × (preoperative steroid use) + 2 × (elevated serum sialylated carbohydrate antigen, KL-6 level) + 1 × (low vital capacity). The RS was shown to be moderately discriminatory with a c-index of 0.709 and accurate with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (p = 0.907). The patients were classified into three groups: low risk (RS: 0-10; predicted probability <0.1; n = 439), intermediate risk (RS: 11-14; predicted probability 0.1-0.25; n = 559), and high risk (RS: 15-22; predicted probability >0.25; n = 24). Although further validation and refinement are needed, the risk score can be used in routine clinical practice to identify high risk individuals and to select proper treatment strategies.
Kim, Young Don; Kim, Ellen Ai-Rhan; Kim, Ki Soo; Pi, Soo Young; Kang, Weechang
In our previous study, we have demonstrated that peak inspiratory pressure over birth weight (PIP/kg) and mean airway pressure over birth weight (MAP/kg) were more significant risk factors for the development of neonatal chronic lung disease (CLD) than PIP and MAP. We aimed to develop a scoring method using the modified respiratory variables (SMUMRV) to predict CLD at early postnatal period. From 1997 to 1999, a retrospective review was performed for 197 infants <1,500 g for the development of the SMUMRV based on statistical analysis. From 2000 to 2001, calculated scores on day 4, 7 and 10 of life were obtained prospectively for 107 infants <1,500 g. Predictive values and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) were determined and compared with the result of the previous regression model. Gestational age, birth weight, 5 min Apgar score, PIP/kg at 12 hr of age, fractional inspired oxygen (FiO2), MAP/kg, modified oxygenation index and ventilatory mode were selected as parameters of SMUMRV. No significant differences of AUCs were found between the SMUMRV and the Yoder model. It is likely that our scoring method provides reliable values for predicting the development of CLD in very low birth weight infants.
Blomquist, Preston H; Sargent, James W; Winslow, Heather H
To validate the Najjar-Awwad cataract surgery risk score for residents, which has been proposed to predict surgical complexity and risk. Two urban public county hospitals. Case series. Phacoemulsification cataract surgeries performed by residents between January 2005 and April 2008 were retrospectively reviewed. The cataract risk score was calculated retrospectively. Intraoperative complications included posterior and anterior capsular tears, vitreous prolapse, dropped nucleus, and conversion to manual extracapsular cataract extraction. Of the cases performed by 33 residents, 1833 met the inclusion criteria. There were 120 complications (6.5%); the rate of complications involving vitreous prolapse or loss (including dropped nucleus) was 3.2%. Significant risk factors in the risk score associated with intraoperative complications were dense nuclear sclerosis (odds ratio [OR], 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-3.26; P = .004) and poor red reflex (OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.45-3.06; P = .00007). Cataract risk scores ranged from 3 to 16. The score was less than 5 in 85 cases (4.6%) and less than 7 in 885 cases (48.3%). The OR for complications increased significantly when the risk score was higher than 6 (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.42-3.14; P = .0002). Although the Najjar-Awwad cataract surgery risk score can be used to predict intraoperative complications at the time of cataract surgery, the complication rate did not significantly increase until the score reached 7. There were few cases with scores lower than 5 in these county hospital populations. Beginning surgeons should be given cases with a risk score of less than 7. Copyright © 2010 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Taha, Ali S; McCloskey, Caroline; Craigen, Theresa; Angerson, Wilson J
Antithrombotic drugs (ATDs) cause non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). Risk scoring systems have not been validated in ATD users. We compared Blatchford, Rockall and Charlson scores in predicting outcomes of NVUGIB in ATD users and controls. A total of 2071 patients with NVUGIB were grouped into ATD users (n=851) and controls (n=1220) in a single-centre retrospective analysis. Outcomes included duration of hospital admission, the need for blood transfusion, rebleeding requiring surgery and 30-day mortality. Duration of admission correlated with all scores in controls, but correlations were significantly weaker in ATD users. Rank correlation coefficients in control versus ATD: 0.45 vs 0.20 for Blatchford; 0.48 vs 0.32 for Rockall and 0.42 vs 0.26 for Charlson (all p<0.001). The need for transfusion was best predicted by Blatchford (p<0.001 vs Rockall and Charlson in both ATD users and controls), but all scores performed less well in ATD users. Area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC) in control versus ATD: 0.90 vs 0.85 for Blatchford; 0.77 vs 0.61 for Rockall and 0.69 vs 0.56 for Charlson (all p<0.005). In predicting surgery, Rockall performed best; while mortality was best predicted by Charlson with lower AUCs in ATD patients than controls (p<0.05). Stratification showed the scores' performance to be age-dependent. Blatchford score was the strongest predictor of transfusion, Rockall's had the strongest correlation with duration of admission and with rebleeding requiring surgery and Charlson was best in predicting 30-day mortality. Modifications of these systems should be explored to improve their efficiency in ATD users.
Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System scores, pre-transplant therapy and chronic graft-versus-host disease determine outcome after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for myelofibrosis
Ditschkowski, Markus; Elmaagacli, Ahmet H.; Trenschel, Rudolf; Gromke, Tanja; Steckel, Nina K.; Koldehoff, Michael; Beelen, Dietrich W.
Background Myelofibrosis is a myeloproliferative stem cell disorder curable exclusively by allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to assess disease-specific and transplant-related risk factors that influence post-transplant outcome in patients with myelofibrosis. Design and Methods We retrospectively assessed 76 consecutive patients with primary (n=47) or secondary (n=29) myelofibrosis who underwent bone marrow (n=6) or peripheral blood stem cell (n=70) transplantation from sibling (n=30) or unrelated (n=46) donors between January 1994 and December 2010. The median follow-up of surviving patients was 55±7.5 months. Results Primary graft failure occurred in 5% and the non-relapse mortality rate at 1 year was 28%. The relapse-free survival rate was 50% with a relapse rate of 19% at 5 years. The use of pharmacological pre-treatment and the post-transplant occurrence of chronic graft-versus-host disease were significant independent unfavourable risk factors for post-transplant survival in multivariate analysis. Using the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System for risk stratification, low-risk patients had significantly better overall survival (P=0.014, hazard ratio 1.4) and relapse-free survival (P=0.02, hazard ratio 1.3) compared to the other risk groups of patients. The additional inclusion of thrombocytopenia, abnormal karyotype and transfusion need (Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System Plus) resulted in a predicted 5-year overall survival of 100%, 51%, 54% and 30% for low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2 and high-risk groups, respectively. The relapse incidence was significantly higher in the absence of chronic graft-versus-host disease (P=0.006), and pharmacological pre-treatment (n=43) was associated with reduced relapse-free survival (P=0.001). Conclusions The data corroborate a strong correlation between alloreactivity and long-term post
Hijazi, Ziad; Lindbäck, Johan; Alexander, John H; Hanna, Michael; Held, Claes; Hylek, Elaine M; Lopes, Renato D; Oldgren, Jonas; Siegbahn, Agneta; Stewart, Ralph A H; White, Harvey D; Granger, Christopher B; Wallentin, Lars
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, which is currently estimated by clinical characteristics. The cardiac biomarkers N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin high-sensitivity (cTn-hs) are independently associated with risk of stroke in AF. Our objective was to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve prognostication of stroke in patients with AF. A new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 701 patients with AF and biomarkers levels determined at baseline, median follow-up of 1.9 years. Biomarkers and clinical variables significantly contributing to predicting stroke or systemic embolism were assessed by Cox-regression and each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. External validation was performed in 1400 patients with AF, median follow-up of 3.4 years. The most important predictors were prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, NT-proBNP, cTn-hs, and age, which were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) stroke risk score. The ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than the widely used CHA2DS2-VASc score in both the derivation cohort (0.68 vs. 0.62, P < 0.001) and the external validation cohort (0.66 vs. 0.58, P < 0.001). Moreover, the ABC-stroke score consistently provided higher c-indices in several important subgroups. A novel biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in AF was successfully developed and internally validated in a large cohort of patients with AF and further externally validated in an independent AF cohort. The ABC-stroke score performed better than the presently used clinically based risk score and may provide improved decision support in AF. NCT00412984, NCT00799903. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
Lee, Yong-ho; Bang, Heejung; Park, Young Min; Bae, Ji Cheol; Lee, Byung-Wan; Kang, Eun Seok; Cha, Bong Soo; Lee, Hyun Chul; Balkau, Beverley; Lee, Won-Young; Kim, Dae Jung
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a prevalent and rapidly increasing disease worldwide; however, no widely accepted screening models to assess the risk of NAFLD are available. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for NAFLD in the general population using two independent cohorts. The development cohort comprised 15676 subjects (8313 males and 7363 females) who visited the National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital in Korea in 2008-2010. Anthropometric, clinical, and laboratory data were examined during regular health check-ups and fatty liver diagnosed by abdominal ultrasound. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine predictors of prevalent NAFLD and to derive risk scores/models. We validated our models and compared them with other existing methods using an external cohort (N = 66868). The simple self-assessment score consists of age, sex, waist circumference, body mass index, history of diabetes and dyslipidemia, alcohol intake, physical activity and menopause status, which are independently associated with NAFLD, and has a value of 0-15. A cut-off point of ≥ 8 defined 58% of males and 36% of females as being at high-risk of NAFLD, and yielded a sensitivity of 80% in men (77% in women), a specificity of 67% (81%), a positive predictive value of 72% (63%), a negative predictive value of 76% (89%) and an AUC of 0.82 (0.88). Comparable results were obtained using the validation dataset. The comprehensive NAFLD score, which includes additional laboratory parameters, has enhanced discrimination ability, with an AUC of 0.86 for males and 0.91 for females. Both simple and comprehensive NAFLD scores were significantly increased in subjects with higher fatty liver grades or severity of liver conditions (e.g., simple steatosis, steatohepatitis). The new non-laboratory-based self-assessment score may be useful for identifying individuals at high-risk of NAFLD. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the
Kandiah, Nagaendran; Chander, Russell Jude; Lin, Xuling; Ng, Aloysius; Poh, Yen Yeong; Cheong, Chin Yee; Cenina, Alvin Rae; Assam, Pryseley Nkouibert
Post stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI), an important complication of strokes, has numerous risk factors. A scale adequately classifying risk of cognitive impairment 3-6 months after mild stroke will be useful for clinicians. To develop a risk score based on clinical and neuroimaging variables that will be useful in identifying mild ischemic stroke patients at high risk for PSCI. The risk score development cohort comprised of a retrospective dataset of 209 mild stroke patients with MRI confirmed infarcts, without pre-stroke cognitive impairment, and evaluated within 6 months post-stroke for PSCI. Logistic regression identified factors predictive of PSCI and a risk score was developed based on regression coefficients. The risk score was checked for stability using 10-fold cross-validation and validated in an independent prospective cohort of 185 ischemic mild stroke patients. Within 6 months post-stroke, 37.32% developed PSCI in the retrospective dataset. A 15-point risk score based on age, education, acute cortical infarcts, white matter hyperintensity, chronic lacunes, global cortical atrophy, and intracranial large vessel stenosis was highly predictive of PSCI with an AUC of 0.829. 10.11% with low scores, 52.69% with moderate scores, and 74.07% with high scores developed PSCI. In the prospective validation cohort, the model had an AUC of 0.776, and exhibited similar accuracy and stability statistics at both 6 and 12 months. The seven item risk score adequately identified mild stroke patients who are at an increased risk of developing PSCI.