Power law versus exponential state transition dynamics: application to sleep-wake architecture.

PubMed

Chu-Shore, Jesse; Westover, M Brandon; Bianchi, Matt T

2010-12-02

Despite the common experience that interrupted sleep has a negative impact on waking function, the features of human sleep-wake architecture that best distinguish sleep continuity versus fragmentation remain elusive. In this regard, there is growing interest in characterizing sleep architecture using models of the temporal dynamics of sleep-wake stage transitions. In humans and other mammals, the state transitions defining sleep and wake bout durations have been described with exponential and power law models, respectively. However, sleep-wake stage distributions are often complex, and distinguishing between exponential and power law processes is not always straightforward. Although mono-exponential distributions are distinct from power law distributions, multi-exponential distributions may in fact resemble power laws by appearing linear on a log-log plot. To characterize the parameters that may allow these distributions to mimic one another, we systematically fitted multi-exponential-generated distributions with a power law model, and power law-generated distributions with multi-exponential models. We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method to investigate goodness of fit for the "incorrect" model over a range of parameters. The "zone of mimicry" of parameters that increased the risk of mistakenly accepting power law fitting resembled empiric time constants obtained in human sleep and wake bout distributions. Recognizing this uncertainty in model distinction impacts interpretation of transition dynamics (self-organizing versus probabilistic), and the generation of predictive models for clinical classification of normal and pathological sleep architecture.

The ‘hit’ phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as a stochastic process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Akira; Arakaki, Hisashi; Matsuda, Naoya; Umemura, Sanae; Urushidani, Tamiko; Yamagata, Naoya; Yoshida, Narihiko

2012-06-01

A mathematical model for the ‘hit’ phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of human dynamics interactions. The model uses only the advertisement budget time distribution as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM), represented by posts on social network systems, is used as data to make a comparison with the calculated results. The unit of time is days. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the revenue distribution in time. Calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on the mathematical model agree well with the actual revenue distribution in time.

A coupled biophysical model for the distribution of the great scallop Pecten maximus in the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Goff, Clément; Lavaud, Romain; Cugier, Philippe; Jean, Fred; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Foucher, Eric; Desroy, Nicolas; Fifas, Spyros; Foveau, Aurélie

2017-03-01

In this paper we used a modelling approach integrating both physical and biological constraints to understand the biogeographical distribution of the great scallop Pecten maximus in the English Channel during its whole life cycle. A 3D bio-hydrodynamical model (ECO-MARS3D) providing environmental conditions was coupled to (i) a population dynamics model and (ii) an individual ecophysiological model (Dynamic Energy Budget model). We performed the coupling sequentially, which underlined the respective role of biological and physical factors in defining P. maximus distribution in the English Channel. Results show that larval dispersion by hydrodynamics explains most of the scallop distribution and enlighten the main known hotspots for the population, basically corresponding to the main fishing areas. The mechanistic description of individual bioenergetics shows that food availability and temperature control growth and reproduction and explain how populations may maintain themselves in particular locations. This last coupling leads to more realistic densities and distributions of adults in the English Channel. The results of this study improves our knowledge on the stock and distribution dynamics of P. maximus, and provides grounds for useful tools to support management strategies.

The model of drugs distribution dynamics in biological tissue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ginevskij, D. A.; Izhevskij, P. V.; Sheino, I. N.

2017-09-01

The dose distribution by Neutron Capture Therapy follows the distribution of 10B in the tissue. The modern models of pharmacokinetics of drugs describe the processes occurring in conditioned "chambers" (blood-organ-tumor), but fail to describe the spatial distribution of the drug in the tumor and in normal tissue. The mathematical model of the spatial distribution dynamics of drugs in the tissue, depending on the concentration of the drug in the blood, was developed. The modeling method is the representation of the biological structure in the form of a randomly inhomogeneous medium in which the 10B distribution occurs. The parameters of the model, which cannot be determined rigorously in the experiment, are taken as the quantities subject to the laws of the unconnected random processes. The estimates of 10B distribution preparations in the tumor and healthy tissue, inside/outside the cells, are obtained.

The impact of fog on soil moisture dynamics in the Namib Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Vogt, Roland; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

2018-03-01

Soil moisture is a crucial component supporting vegetation dynamics in drylands. Despite increasing attention on fog in dryland ecosystems, the statistical characterization of fog distribution and how fog affects soil moisture dynamics have not been seen in literature. To this end, daily fog records over two years (Dec 1, 2014-Nov 1, 2016) from three sites within the Namib Desert were used to characterize fog distribution. Two sites were located within the Gobabeb Research and Training Center vicinity, the gravel plains and the sand dunes. The third site was located at the gravel plains, Kleinberg. A subset of the fog data during rainless period was used to investigate the effect of fog on soil moisture. A stochastic modeling framework was used to simulate the effect of fog on soil moisture dynamics. Our results showed that fog distribution can be characterized by a Poisson process with two parameters (arrival rate λ and average depth α (mm)). Fog and soil moisture observations from eighty (Aug 19, 2015-Nov 6, 2015) rainless days indicated a moderate positive relationship between soil moisture and fog in the Gobabeb gravel plains, a weaker relationship in the Gobabeb sand dunes while no relationship was observed at the Kleinberg site. The modeling results suggested that mean and major peaks of soil moisture dynamics can be captured by the fog modeling. Our field observations demonstrated the effects of fog on soil moisture dynamics during rainless periods at some locations, which has important implications on soil biogeochemical processes. The statistical characterization and modeling of fog distribution are of great value to predict fog distribution and investigate the effects of potential changes in fog distribution on soil moisture dynamics.

Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO ...Model (LIM) for MJO predictions and apply it in retrospective cross-validated forecast mode to the DYNAMO time period. APPROACH We are working as...a team to study MJO dynamics and predictability using several models as team members of the ONR DRI associated with the DYNAMO experiment. This is a

Shallow slip amplification and enhanced tsunami hazard unravelled by dynamic simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes

PubMed Central

Murphy, S.; Scala, A.; Herrero, A.; Lorito, S.; Festa, G.; Trasatti, E.; Tonini, R.; Romano, F.; Molinari, I.; Nielsen, S.

2016-01-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced an unexpected large amount of shallow slip greatly contributing to the ensuing tsunami. How frequent are such events? How can they be efficiently modelled for tsunami hazard? Stochastic slip models, which can be computed rapidly, are used to explore the natural slip variability; however, they generally do not deal specifically with shallow slip features. We study the systematic depth-dependence of slip along a thrust fault with a number of 2D dynamic simulations using stochastic shear stress distributions and a geometry based on the cross section of the Tohoku fault. We obtain a probability density for the slip distribution, which varies both with depth, earthquake size and whether the rupture breaks the surface. We propose a method to modify stochastic slip distributions according to this dynamically-derived probability distribution. This method may be efficiently applied to produce large numbers of heterogeneous slip distributions for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. Using numerous M9 earthquake scenarios, we demonstrate that incorporating the dynamically-derived probability distribution does enhance the conditional probability of exceedance of maximum estimated tsunami wave heights along the Japanese coast. This technique for integrating dynamic features in stochastic models can be extended to any subduction zone and faulting style. PMID:27725733

Structural model for fluctuations in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand, Kartik; Khedair, Jonathan; Kühn, Reimer

2018-05-01

In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market which takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dynamics of a system of analog neurons, which is expected to exhibit glassy properties and thus many metastable states in a large portion of its parameter space. We perform a generating functional analysis, introducing a slow driving of the dynamics to mimic the effect of slowly varying macroeconomic conditions. Distributions of asset returns over various time separations are evaluated analytically and are found to be fat-tailed in a manner broadly in line with empirical observations. Our model also allows us to identify collective, interaction-mediated properties of pricing distributions and it predicts pricing distributions which are significantly broader than their noninteracting counterparts, if interactions between prices in the model contain a ferromagnetic bias. Using simulations, we are able to substantiate one of the main hypotheses underlying the original modeling, viz., that the phenomenon of volatility clustering can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the dynamics within metastable states and the dynamics of occasional transitions between them.

A Parameter Communication Optimization Strategy for Distributed Machine Learning in Sensors.

PubMed

Zhang, Jilin; Tu, Hangdi; Ren, Yongjian; Wan, Jian; Zhou, Li; Li, Mingwei; Wang, Jue; Yu, Lifeng; Zhao, Chang; Zhang, Lei

2017-09-21

In order to utilize the distributed characteristic of sensors, distributed machine learning has become the mainstream approach, but the different computing capability of sensors and network delays greatly influence the accuracy and the convergence rate of the machine learning model. Our paper describes a reasonable parameter communication optimization strategy to balance the training overhead and the communication overhead. We extend the fault tolerance of iterative-convergent machine learning algorithms and propose the Dynamic Finite Fault Tolerance (DFFT). Based on the DFFT, we implement a parameter communication optimization strategy for distributed machine learning, named Dynamic Synchronous Parallel Strategy (DSP), which uses the performance monitoring model to dynamically adjust the parameter synchronization strategy between worker nodes and the Parameter Server (PS). This strategy makes full use of the computing power of each sensor, ensures the accuracy of the machine learning model, and avoids the situation that the model training is disturbed by any tasks unrelated to the sensors.

Time scale of dynamic heterogeneity in model ionic liquids and its relation to static length scale and charge distribution.

PubMed

Park, Sang-Won; Kim, Soree; Jung, YounJoon

2015-11-21

We study how dynamic heterogeneity in ionic liquids is affected by the length scale of structural relaxation and the ionic charge distribution by the molecular dynamics simulations performed on two differently charged models of ionic liquid and their uncharged counterpart. In one model of ionic liquid, the charge distribution in the cation is asymmetric, and in the other it is symmetric, while their neutral counterpart has no charge with the ions. It is found that all the models display heterogeneous dynamics, exhibiting subdiffusive dynamics and a nonexponential decay of structural relaxation. We investigate the lifetime of dynamic heterogeneity, τ(dh), in these systems by calculating the three-time correlation functions to find that τ(dh) has in general a power-law behavior with respect to the structural relaxation time, τ(α), i.e., τ(dh) ∝ τ(α)(ζ(dh)). Although the dynamics of the asymmetric-charge model is seemingly more heterogeneous than that of the symmetric-charge model, the exponent is found to be similar, ζ(dh) ≈ 1.2, for all the models studied in this work. The same scaling relation is found regardless of interactions, i.e., with or without Coulomb interaction, and it holds even when the length scale of structural relaxation is long enough to become the Fickian diffusion. This fact indicates that τ(dh) is a distinctive time scale from τ(α), and the dynamic heterogeneity is mainly affected by the short-range interaction and the molecular structure.

Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds.

PubMed

Börger, Luca; Nudds, Thomas D

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario Boreal Shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics will be necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species.

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

PubMed

Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2013-01-01

The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let the characteristics of known natural environmental covariates (e.g., colour and distribution shape) guide us in our choice of how to best model the impact of coloured environmental variation on population dynamics.

NASA Workshop on Distributed Parameter Modeling and Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marks, Virginia B. (Compiler); Keckler, Claude R. (Compiler)

1994-01-01

Although significant advances have been made in modeling and controlling flexible systems, there remains a need for improvements in model accuracy and in control performance. The finite element models of flexible systems are unduly complex and are almost intractable to optimum parameter estimation for refinement using experimental data. Distributed parameter or continuum modeling offers some advantages and some challenges in both modeling and control. Continuum models often result in a significantly reduced number of model parameters, thereby enabling optimum parameter estimation. The dynamic equations of motion of continuum models provide the advantage of allowing the embedding of the control system dynamics, thus forming a complete set of system dynamics. There is also increased insight provided by the continuum model approach.

A mesostate-space model for EEG and MEG.

PubMed

Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl J

2007-10-15

We present a multi-scale generative model for EEG, that entails a minimum number of assumptions about evoked brain responses, namely: (1) bioelectric activity is generated by a set of distributed sources, (2) the dynamics of these sources can be modelled as random fluctuations about a small number of mesostates, (3) mesostates evolve in a temporal structured way and are functionally connected (i.e. influence each other), and (4) the number of mesostates engaged by a cognitive task is small (e.g. between one and a few). A Variational Bayesian learning scheme is described that furnishes the posterior density on the models parameters and its evidence. Since the number of meso-sources specifies the model, the model evidence can be used to compare models and find the optimum number of meso-sources. In addition to estimating the dynamics at each cortical dipole, the mesostate-space model and its inversion provide a description of brain activity at the level of the mesostates (i.e. in terms of the dynamics of meso-sources that are distributed over dipoles). The inclusion of a mesostate level allows one to compute posterior probability maps of each dipole being active (i.e. belonging to an active mesostate). Critically, this model accommodates constraints on the number of meso-sources, while retaining the flexibility of distributed source models in explaining data. In short, it bridges the gap between standard distributed and equivalent current dipole models. Furthermore, because it is explicitly spatiotemporal, the model can embed any stochastic dynamical causal model (e.g. a neural mass model) as a Markov process prior on the mesostate dynamics. The approach is evaluated and compared to standard inverse EEG techniques, using synthetic data and real data. The results demonstrate the added-value of the mesostate-space model and its variational inversion.

A Three-Wave Model of the Stratosphere with Coupled Dynamics, Radiation and Photochemistry. Appendix M

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shia, Run-Lie; Zhou, Shuntai; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, Nien-Dak; Salstein, David; Cady-Pereira, Karen

1997-01-01

A zonal mean chemistry transport model (2-D CTM) coupled with a semi-spectral dynamical model is used to simulate the distributions of trace gases in the present day atmosphere. The zonal-mean and eddy equations for the velocity and the geopotential height are solved in the semi-spectral dynamical model. The residual mean circulation is derived from these dynamical variables and used to advect the chemical species in the 2- D CTM. Based on a linearized wave transport equation, the eddy diffusion coefficients for chemical tracers are expressed in terms of the amplitude, frequency and growth rate of dynamical waves; local chemical loss rates; and a time constant parameterizing small scale mixing. The contributions to eddy flux are from the time varying wave amplitude (transient eddy), chemical reactions (chemical eddy) and small scale mixing. In spite of the high truncation in the dynamical module (only three longest waves are resolved), the model has simulated many observed characteristics of stratospheric dynamics and distribution of chemical species including ozone. Compared with the values commonly used in 2-D CTMs, the eddy diffusion coefficients for chemical species calculated in this model are smaller, especially in the subtropics. It is also found that the chemical eddy diffusion has only a small effects in determining the distribution of most slow species, including ozone in the stratosphere.

Understanding human dynamics in microblog posting activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhihong; Zhang, Yubao; Wang, Hui; Li, Pei

2013-02-01

Human activity patterns are an important issue in behavior dynamics research. Empirical evidence indicates that human activity patterns can be characterized by a heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution. However, most researchers give an understanding by only modeling the power-law feature of the inter-event time distribution, and those overlooked non-power-law features are likely to be nontrivial. In this work, we propose a behavior dynamics model, called the finite memory model, in which humans adaptively change their activity rates based on a finite memory of recent activities, which is driven by inherent individual interest. Theoretical analysis shows a finite memory model can properly explain various heavy-tailed inter-event time distributions, including a regular power law and some non-power-law deviations. To validate the model, we carry out an empirical study based on microblogging activity from thousands of microbloggers in the Celebrity Hall of the Sina microblog. The results show further that the model is reasonably effective. We conclude that finite memory is an effective dynamics element to describe the heavy-tailed human activity pattern.

CFD modeling of particle dispersion and deposition coupled with particle dynamical models in a ventilated room

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Guangping; Wang, Jiasong

2017-10-01

Two dynamical models, the traditional method of moments coupled model (MCM) and Taylor-series expansion method of moments coupled model (TECM) for particle dispersion distribution and gravitation deposition are developed in three-dimensional ventilated environments. The turbulent airflow field is modeled with the renormalization group (RNG) k-ε turbulence model. The particle number concentration distribution in a ventilated room is obtained by solving the population balance equation coupled with the airflow field. The coupled dynamical models are validated using experimental data. A good agreement between the numerical and experimental results can be achieved. Both models have a similar characteristic for the spatial distribution of particle concentration. Relative to the MCM model, the TECM model presents a more close result to the experimental data. The vortex structure existed in the air flow makes a relative large concentration difference at the center region and results in a spatial non-uniformity of concentration field. With larger inlet velocity, the mixing level of particles in the room is more uniform. In general, the new dynamical models coupled with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in the current study provide a reasonable and accurate method for the temporal and spatial evolution of particles effected by the deposition and dispersion behaviors. In addition, two ventilation modes with different inlet velocities are proceeded to study the effect on the particle evolution. The results show that with the ceiling ventilation mode (CVM), the particles can be better mixed and the concentration level is also higher. On the contrast, with the side ceiling ventilation mode (SVM), the particle concentration has an obvious stratified distribution with a relative lower level and it makes a much better environment condition to the human exposure.

The effects of distributed life cycles on the dynamics of viral infections.

PubMed

Campos, Daniel; Méndez, Vicenç; Fedotov, Sergei

2008-09-21

We explore the role of cellular life cycles for viruses and host cells in an infection process. For this purpose, we derive a generalized version of the basic model of virus dynamics (Nowak, M.A., Bangham, C.R.M., 1996. Population dynamics of immune responses to persistent viruses. Science 272, 74-79) from a mesoscopic description. In its final form the model can be written as a set of Volterra integrodifferential equations. We consider the role of distributed lifespans and a intracellular (eclipse) phase. These processes are implemented by means of probability distribution functions. The basic reproductive ratio R(0) of the infection is properly defined in terms of such distributions by using an analysis of the equilibrium states and their stability. It is concluded that the introduction of distributed delays can strongly modify both the value of R(0) and the predictions for the virus loads, so the effects on the infection dynamics are of major importance. We also show how the model presented here can be applied to some simple situations where direct comparison with experiments is possible. Specifically, phage-bacteria interactions are analyzed. The dynamics of the eclipse phase for phages is characterized analytically, which allows us to compare the performance of three different fittings proposed before for the one-step growth curve.

A Comparison of Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Dynamic Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation in Fitting Covariance Structure Models to Block-Toeplitz Matrices Representing Single-Subject Multivariate Time-Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

1998-01-01

Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (p-ML) and Asymptotically Distribution Free (ADF) estimation methods for estimating dynamic factor model parameters within a covariance structure framework were compared through a Monte Carlo simulation. Both methods appear to give consistent model parameter estimates, but only ADF gives standard errors and chi-square…

Learning maximum entropy models from finite-size data sets: A fast data-driven algorithm allows sampling from the posterior distribution.

PubMed

Ferrari, Ulisse

2016-08-01

Maximum entropy models provide the least constrained probability distributions that reproduce statistical properties of experimental datasets. In this work we characterize the learning dynamics that maximizes the log-likelihood in the case of large but finite datasets. We first show how the steepest descent dynamics is not optimal as it is slowed down by the inhomogeneous curvature of the model parameters' space. We then provide a way for rectifying this space which relies only on dataset properties and does not require large computational efforts. We conclude by solving the long-time limit of the parameters' dynamics including the randomness generated by the systematic use of Gibbs sampling. In this stochastic framework, rather than converging to a fixed point, the dynamics reaches a stationary distribution, which for the rectified dynamics reproduces the posterior distribution of the parameters. We sum up all these insights in a "rectified" data-driven algorithm that is fast and by sampling from the parameters' posterior avoids both under- and overfitting along all the directions of the parameters' space. Through the learning of pairwise Ising models from the recording of a large population of retina neurons, we show how our algorithm outperforms the steepest descent method.

CHARACTERIZING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS: DEVELOPMENT OF A GRID-BASED WATERSHED MERCURY LOADING MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A distributed grid-based watershed mercury loading model has been developed to characterize spatial and temporal dynamics of mercury from both point and non-point sources. The model simulates flow, sediment transport, and mercury dynamics on a daily time step across a diverse lan...

Large deviations in the presence of cooperativity and slow dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitelam, Stephen

2018-06-01

We study simple models of intermittency, involving switching between two states, within the dynamical large-deviation formalism. Singularities appear in the formalism when switching is cooperative or when its basic time scale diverges. In the first case the unbiased trajectory distribution undergoes a symmetry breaking, leading to a change in shape of the large-deviation rate function for a particular dynamical observable. In the second case the symmetry of the unbiased trajectory distribution remains unbroken. Comparison of these models suggests that singularities of the dynamical large-deviation formalism can signal the dynamical equivalent of an equilibrium phase transition but do not necessarily do so.

Dynamics of a distributed drill string system: Characteristic parameters and stability maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarsnes, Ulf Jakob F.; van de Wouw, Nathan

2018-03-01

This paper involves the dynamic (stability) analysis of distributed drill-string systems. A minimal set of parameters characterizing the linearized, axial-torsional dynamics of a distributed drill string coupled through the bit-rock interaction is derived. This is found to correspond to five parameters for a simple drill string and eight parameters for a two-sectioned drill-string (e.g., corresponding to the pipe and collar sections of a drilling system). These dynamic characterizations are used to plot the inverse gain margin of the system, parametrized in the non-dimensional parameters, effectively creating a stability map covering the full range of realistic physical parameters. This analysis reveals a complex spectrum of dynamics not evident in stability analysis with lumped models, thus indicating the importance of analysis using distributed models. Moreover, it reveals trends concerning stability properties depending on key system parameters useful in the context of system and control design aiming at the mitigation of vibrations.

Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhelavskaya, I. S.; Shprits, Y.; Spasojevic, M.

2017-12-01

We present a new empirical model for reconstructing the global dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution based only on solar wind data and geomagnetic indices. Utilizing the density database obtained using the NURD (Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination) algorithm for the period of October 1, 2012 - July 1, 2016, in conjunction with solar wind data and geomagnetic indices, we develop a neural network model that is capable of globally reconstructing the dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution for 2 ≤ L ≤ 6 and all local times. We validate and test the model by measuring its performance on independent datasets withheld from the training set and by comparing the model predicted global evolution with global images of He+ distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere from the IMAGE Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) instrument. We identify the parameters that best quantify the plasmasphere dynamics by training and comparing multiple neural networks with different combinations of input parameters (geomagnetic indices, solar wind data, and different durations of their time history). We demonstrate results of both local and global plasma density reconstruction. This study illustrates how global dynamics can be reconstructed from local in-situ observations by using machine learning techniques.

Statistical analyses support power law distributions found in neuronal avalanches.

PubMed

Klaus, Andreas; Yu, Shan; Plenz, Dietmar

2011-01-01

The size distribution of neuronal avalanches in cortical networks has been reported to follow a power law distribution with exponent close to -1.5, which is a reflection of long-range spatial correlations in spontaneous neuronal activity. However, identifying power law scaling in empirical data can be difficult and sometimes controversial. In the present study, we tested the power law hypothesis for neuronal avalanches by using more stringent statistical analyses. In particular, we performed the following steps: (i) analysis of finite-size scaling to identify scale-free dynamics in neuronal avalanches, (ii) model parameter estimation to determine the specific exponent of the power law, and (iii) comparison of the power law to alternative model distributions. Consistent with critical state dynamics, avalanche size distributions exhibited robust scaling behavior in which the maximum avalanche size was limited only by the spatial extent of sampling ("finite size" effect). This scale-free dynamics suggests the power law as a model for the distribution of avalanche sizes. Using both the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and a maximum likelihood approach, we found the slope to be close to -1.5, which is in line with previous reports. Finally, the power law model for neuronal avalanches was compared to the exponential and to various heavy-tail distributions based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance and by using a log-likelihood ratio test. Both the power law distribution without and with exponential cut-off provided significantly better fits to the cluster size distributions in neuronal avalanches than the exponential, the lognormal and the gamma distribution. In summary, our findings strongly support the power law scaling in neuronal avalanches, providing further evidence for critical state dynamics in superficial layers of cortex.

Dynamic Modeling of Yield and Particle Size Distribution in Continuous Bayer Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, Jerry L.; Kapraun, Chris

Process engineers at Alcoa's Point Comfort refinery are using a dynamic model of the Bayer precipitation area to evaluate options in operating strategies. The dynamic model, a joint development effort between Point Comfort and the Alcoa Technical Center, predicts process yields, particle size distributions and occluded soda levels for various flowsheet configurations of the precipitation and classification circuit. In addition to rigorous heat, material and particle population balances, the model includes mechanistic kinetic expressions for particle growth and agglomeration and semi-empirical kinetics for nucleation and attrition. The kinetic parameters have been tuned to Point Comfort's operating data, with excellent matches between the model results and plant data. The model is written for the ACSL dynamic simulation program with specifically developed input/output graphical user interfaces to provide a user-friendly tool. Features such as a seed charge controller enhance the model's usefulness for evaluating operating conditions and process control approaches.

MSEE: Stochastic Cognitive Linguistic Behavior Models for Semantic Sensing

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

recognition, a Gaussian Process Dynamic Model with Social Network Analysis (GPDM-SNA) for a small human group action recognition, an extended GPDM-SNA...44  3.2. Small Human Group Activity Modeling Based on Gaussian Process Dynamic Model and Social Network Analysis (SN-GPDM...51  Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 3 3.2.3. Gaussian Process Dynamical Model and

A Parameter Communication Optimization Strategy for Distributed Machine Learning in Sensors

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jilin; Tu, Hangdi; Ren, Yongjian; Wan, Jian; Zhou, Li; Li, Mingwei; Wang, Jue; Yu, Lifeng; Zhao, Chang; Zhang, Lei

2017-01-01

In order to utilize the distributed characteristic of sensors, distributed machine learning has become the mainstream approach, but the different computing capability of sensors and network delays greatly influence the accuracy and the convergence rate of the machine learning model. Our paper describes a reasonable parameter communication optimization strategy to balance the training overhead and the communication overhead. We extend the fault tolerance of iterative-convergent machine learning algorithms and propose the Dynamic Finite Fault Tolerance (DFFT). Based on the DFFT, we implement a parameter communication optimization strategy for distributed machine learning, named Dynamic Synchronous Parallel Strategy (DSP), which uses the performance monitoring model to dynamically adjust the parameter synchronization strategy between worker nodes and the Parameter Server (PS). This strategy makes full use of the computing power of each sensor, ensures the accuracy of the machine learning model, and avoids the situation that the model training is disturbed by any tasks unrelated to the sensors. PMID:28934163

First Results of Modeling Radiation Belt Electron Dynamics with the SAMI3 Plasmasphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komar, C. M.; Glocer, A.; Huba, J.; Fok, M. C. H.; Kang, S. B.; Buzulukova, N.

2017-12-01

The radiation belts were one of the first discoveries of the Space Age some sixty years ago and radiation belt models have been improving since the discovery of the radiation belts. The plasmasphere is one region that has been critically important to determining the dynamics of radiation belt populations. This region of space plays a critical role in describing the distribution of chorus and magnetospheric hiss waves throughout the inner magnetosphere. Both of these waves have been shown to interact with energetic electrons in the radiation belts and can result in the energization or loss of radiation belt electrons. However, radiation belt models have been historically limited in describing the distribution of cold plasmaspheric plasma and have relied on empirically determined plasmasphere models. Some plasmasphere models use an azimuthally symmetric distribution of the plasmasphere which can fail to capture important plasmaspheric dynamics such as the development of plasmaspheric drainage plumes. Previous work have coupled the kinetic bounce-averaged Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model used to model ring current and radiation belt populations with the Block-adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATSRUS) global magnetohydrodynamic model to self-consistently obtain the magnetospheric magnetic field and ionospheric potential. The present work will utilize this previous coupling and will additionally couple the SAMI3 plasmasphere model to better represent the dynamics on the plasmasphere and its role in determining the distribution of waves throughout the inner magnetosphere. First results on the relevance of chorus, hiss, and ultralow frequency waves on radiation belt electron dynamics will be discussed in context of the June 1st, 2013 storm-time dropout event.

Thermal characterization assessment of rigid and flexible water models in a nanogap using molecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akıner, Tolga; Mason, Jeremy; Ertürk, Hakan

2017-11-01

The thermal properties of the TIP3P and TIP5P water models are investigated using equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular dynamics techniques in the presence of solid surfaces. The performance of the non-equilibrium technique for rigid molecules is found to depend significantly on the distribution of atomic degrees of freedom. An improved approach to distribute atomic degrees of freedom is proposed for which the thermal conductivity of the TIP5P model agrees more closely with equilibrium molecular dynamics and experimental results than the existing state of the art.

Developing the Next Generation NATO Reference Mobility Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-27

acquisition • design UNCLASSIFIED: Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.(#27992) Vehicle Dynamics Model...and numerical resolution – for use in vehicle design , acquisition and operational mobility planning 27 June 2016 An open architecture was established...the current empirical methods for simulating vehicle and suspension designs . – Industry wide shortfall with tire dynamics and soft soil behavior

A spring-block analogy for the dynamics of stock indexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sándor, Bulcsú; Néda, Zoltán

2015-06-01

A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving belt corresponds to the expected economic growth. The spring-block system produces collective behavior and avalanche like phenomena, similar to the ones observed in stock markets. An artificial index is defined for the spring-block chain, and its dynamics is compared with the one measured for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For certain parameter regions the model reproduces qualitatively well the dynamics of the logarithmic index, the logarithmic returns, the distribution of the logarithmic returns, the avalanche-size distribution and the distribution of the investment horizons. A noticeable success of the model is that it is able to account for the gain-loss asymmetry observed in the inverse statistics. Our approach has mainly a pedagogical value, bridging between a complex socio-economic phenomena and a basic (mechanical) model in physics.

A Theoretical Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Model for System Controls and Stability Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Brinson, Thomas; Credle, Sydni; Xu, Ming

2006-01-01

As the aviation industry moves towards higher efficiency electrical power generation, all electric aircraft, or zero emissions and more quiet aircraft, fuel cells are sought as the technology that can deliver on these high expectations. The Hybrid Solid Oxide Fuel Cell system combines the fuel cell with a microturbine to obtain up to 70 percent cycle efficiency, and then distributes the electrical power to the loads via a power distribution system. The challenge is to understand the dynamics of this complex multi-discipline system, and design distributed controls that take the system through its operating conditions in a stable and safe manner while maintaining the system performance. This particular system is a power generation and distribution system and the fuel cell and microturbine model fidelity should be compatible with the dynamics of the power distribution system in order to allow proper stability and distributed controls design. A novel modeling approach is proposed for the fuel cell that will allow the fuel cell and the power system to be integrated and designed for stability, distributed controls, and other interface specifications. This investigation shows that for the fuel cell, the voltage characteristic should be modeled, but in addition, conservation equation dynamics, ion diffusion, charge transfer kinetics, and the electron flow inherent impedance should also be included.

The social architecture of capitalism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Ian

2005-02-01

A dynamic model of the social relations between workers and capitalists is introduced. The model self-organises into a dynamic equilibrium with statistical properties that are in close qualitative and in many cases quantitative agreement with a broad range of known empirical distributions of developed capitalism, including the power-law firm size distribution, the Laplace firm and GDP growth distribution, the lognormal firm demises distribution, the exponential recession duration distribution, the lognormal-Pareto income distribution, and the gamma-like firm rate-of-profit distribution. Normally these distributions are studied in isolation, but this model unifies and connects them within a single causal framework. The model also generates business cycle phenomena, including fluctuating wage and profit shares in national income about values consistent with empirical studies. The generation of an approximately lognormal-Pareto income distribution and an exponential-Pareto wealth distribution demonstrates that the power-law regime of the income distribution can be explained by an additive process on a power-law network that models the social relation between employers and employees organised in firms, rather than a multiplicative process that models returns to investment in financial markets. A testable consequence of the model is the conjecture that the rate-of-profit distribution is consistent with a parameter-mix of a ratio of normal variates with means and variances that depend on a firm size parameter that is distributed according to a power-law.

Nonlinear dynamic modeling of rotor system supported by angular contact ball bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hong; Han, Qinkai; Zhou, Daning

2017-02-01

In current bearing dynamic models, the displacement coordinate relations are usually utilized to approximately obtain the contact deformations between the rolling element and raceways, and then the nonlinear restoring forces of the rolling bearing could be calculated accordingly. Although the calculation efficiency is relatively higher, the accuracy is lower as the contact deformations should be solved through iterative analysis. Thus, an improved nonlinear dynamic model is presented in this paper. Considering the preload condition, surface waviness, Hertz contact and elastohydrodynamic lubrication, load distribution analysis is solved iteratively to more accurately obtain the contact deformations and angles between the rolling balls and raceways. The bearing restoring forces are then obtained through iteratively solving the load distribution equations at every time step. Dynamic tests upon a typical rotor system supported by two angular contact ball bearings are conducted to verify the model. Through comparisons, the differences between the nonlinear dynamic model and current models are also pointed out. The effects of axial preload, rotor eccentricity and inner/outer waviness amplitudes on the dynamic response are discussed in detail.

The Nonstationary Dynamics of Fitness Distributions: Asexual Model with Epistasis and Standing Variation

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Roques, Lionel

2016-01-01

Various models describe asexual evolution by mutation, selection, and drift. Some focus directly on fitness, typically modeling drift but ignoring or simplifying both epistasis and the distribution of mutation effects (traveling wave models). Others follow the dynamics of quantitative traits determining fitness (Fisher’s geometric model), imposing a complex but fixed form of mutation effects and epistasis, and often ignoring drift. In all cases, predictions are typically obtained in high or low mutation rate limits and for long-term stationary regimes, thus losing information on transient behaviors and the effect of initial conditions. Here, we connect fitness-based and trait-based models into a single framework, and seek explicit solutions even away from stationarity. The expected fitness distribution is followed over time via its cumulant generating function, using a deterministic approximation that neglects drift. In several cases, explicit trajectories for the full fitness distribution are obtained for arbitrary mutation rates and standing variance. For nonepistatic mutations, especially with beneficial mutations, this approximation fails over the long term but captures the early dynamics, thus complementing stationary stochastic predictions. The approximation also handles several diminishing returns epistasis models (e.g., with an optimal genotype); it can be applied at and away from equilibrium. General results arise at equilibrium, where fitness distributions display a “phase transition” with mutation rate. Beyond this phase transition, in Fisher’s geometric model, the full trajectory of fitness and trait distributions takes a simple form; robust to the details of the mutant phenotype distribution. Analytical arguments are explored regarding why and when the deterministic approximation applies. PMID:27770037

Heterogeneity-induced large deviations in activity and (in some cases) entropy production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Todd R.; Vaikuntanathan, Suriyanarayanan; Geissler, Phillip L.

2014-10-01

We solve a simple model that supports a dynamic phase transition and show conditions for the existence of the transition. Using methods of large deviation theory we analytically compute the probability distribution for activity and entropy production rates of the trajectories on a large ring with a single heterogeneous link. The corresponding joint rate function demonstrates two dynamical phases—one localized and the other delocalized, but the marginal rate functions do not always exhibit the underlying transition. Symmetries in dynamic order parameters influence the observation of a transition, such that distributions for certain dynamic order parameters need not reveal an underlying dynamical bistability. Solution of our model system furthermore yields the form of the effective Markov transition matrices that generate dynamics in which the two dynamical phases are at coexistence. We discuss the implications of the transition for the response of bacterial cells to antibiotic treatment, arguing that even simple models of a cell cycle lacking an explicit bistability in configuration space will exhibit a bistability of dynamical phases.

Classification framework for partially observed dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

2017-04-01

We present a general framework for classifying partially observed dynamical systems based on the idea of learning in the model space. In contrast to the existing approaches using point estimates of model parameters to represent individual data items, we employ posterior distributions over model parameters, thus taking into account in a principled manner the uncertainty due to both the generative (observational and/or dynamic noise) and observation (sampling in time) processes. We evaluate the framework on two test beds: a biological pathway model and a stochastic double-well system. Crucially, we show that the classification performance is not impaired when the model structure used for inferring posterior distributions is much more simple than the observation-generating model structure, provided the reduced-complexity inferential model structure captures the essential characteristics needed for the given classification task.

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Principles for the dynamic maintenance of cortical polarity

PubMed Central

Marco, Eugenio; Wedlich-Soldner, Roland; Li, Rong; Altschuler, Steven J.; Wu, Lani F.

2007-01-01

Summary Diverse cell types require the ability to dynamically maintain polarized membrane protein distributions through balancing transport and diffusion. However, design principles underlying dynamically maintained cortical polarity are not well understood. Here we constructed a mathematical model for characterizing the morphology of dynamically polarized protein distributions. We developed analytical approaches for measuring all model parameters from single-cell experiments. We applied our methods to a well-characterized system for studying polarized membrane proteins: budding yeast cells expressing activated Cdc42. We found that balanced diffusion and colocalized transport to and from the plasma membrane were sufficient for accurately describing polarization morphologies. Surprisingly, the model predicts that polarized regions are defined with a precision that is nearly optimal for measured transport rates, and that polarity can be dynamically stabilized through positive feedback with directed transport. Our approach provides a step towards understanding how biological systems shape spatially precise, unambiguous cortical polarity domains using dynamic processes. PMID:17448998

Universality in survivor distributions: Characterizing the winners of competitive dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luck, J. M.; Mehta, A.

2015-11-01

We investigate the survivor distributions of a spatially extended model of competitive dynamics in different geometries. The model consists of a deterministic dynamical system of individual agents at specified nodes, which might or might not survive the predatory dynamics: all stochasticity is brought in by the initial state. Every such initial state leads to a unique and extended pattern of survivors and nonsurvivors, which is known as an attractor of the dynamics. We show that the number of such attractors grows exponentially with system size, so that their exact characterization is limited to only very small systems. Given this, we construct an analytical approach based on inhomogeneous mean-field theory to calculate survival probabilities for arbitrary networks. This powerful (albeit approximate) approach shows how universality arises in survivor distributions via a key concept—the dynamical fugacity. Remarkably, in the large-mass limit, the survivor probability of a node becomes independent of network geometry and assumes a simple form which depends only on its mass and degree.

Learning Maximal Entropy Models from finite size datasets: a fast Data-Driven algorithm allows to sample from the posterior distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Ulisse

A maximal entropy model provides the least constrained probability distribution that reproduces experimental averages of an observables set. In this work we characterize the learning dynamics that maximizes the log-likelihood in the case of large but finite datasets. We first show how the steepest descent dynamics is not optimal as it is slowed down by the inhomogeneous curvature of the model parameters space. We then provide a way for rectifying this space which relies only on dataset properties and does not require large computational efforts. We conclude by solving the long-time limit of the parameters dynamics including the randomness generated by the systematic use of Gibbs sampling. In this stochastic framework, rather than converging to a fixed point, the dynamics reaches a stationary distribution, which for the rectified dynamics reproduces the posterior distribution of the parameters. We sum up all these insights in a ``rectified'' Data-Driven algorithm that is fast and by sampling from the parameters posterior avoids both under- and over-fitting along all the directions of the parameters space. Through the learning of pairwise Ising models from the recording of a large population of retina neurons, we show how our algorithm outperforms the steepest descent method. This research was supported by a Grant from the Human Brain Project (HBP CLAP).

Electromechanical coupling factor of capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducers.

PubMed

Caronti, Alessandro; Carotenuto, Riccardo; Pappalardo, Massimo

2003-01-01

Recently, a linear, analytical distributed model for capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducers (CMUTs) was presented, and an electromechanical equivalent circuit based on the theory reported was used to describe the behavior of the transducer [IEEE Trans. Ultrason. Ferroelectr. Freq. Control 49, 159-168 (2002)]. The distributed model is applied here to calculate the dynamic coupling factor k(w) of a lossless CMUT, based on a definition that involves the energies stored in a dynamic vibration cycle, and the results are compared with those obtained with a lumped model. A strong discrepancy is found between the two models as the bias voltage increases. The lumped model predicts an increasing dynamic k factor up to unity, whereas the distributed model predicts a more realistic saturation of this parameter to values substantially lower. It is demonstrated that the maximum value of k(w), corresponding to an operating point close to the diaphragm collapse, is 0.4 for a CMUT single cell with a circular membrane diaphragm and no parasitic capacitance (0.36 for a cell with a circular plate diaphragm). This means that the dynamic coupling factor of a CMUT is comparable to that of a piezoceramic plate oscillating in the thickness mode. Parasitic capacitance decreases the value of k(w), because it does not contribute to the energy conversion. The effective coupling factor k(eff) is also investigated, showing that this parameter coincides with k(w) within the lumped model approximation, but a quite different result is obtained if a computation is made with the more accurate distributed model. As a consequence, k(eff), which can be measured from the transducer electrical impedance, does not give a reliable value of the actual dynamic coupling factor.

Electromechanical coupling factor of capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caronti, Alessandro; Carotenuto, Riccardo; Pappalardo, Massimo

2003-01-01

Recently, a linear, analytical distributed model for capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducers (CMUTs) was presented, and an electromechanical equivalent circuit based on the theory reported was used to describe the behavior of the transducer [IEEE Trans. Ultrason. Ferroelectr. Freq. Control 49, 159-168 (2002)]. The distributed model is applied here to calculate the dynamic coupling factor kw of a lossless CMUT, based on a definition that involves the energies stored in a dynamic vibration cycle, and the results are compared with those obtained with a lumped model. A strong discrepancy is found between the two models as the bias voltage increases. The lumped model predicts an increasing dynamic k factor up to unity, whereas the distributed model predicts a more realistic saturation of this parameter to values substantially lower. It is demonstrated that the maximum value of kw, corresponding to an operating point close to the diaphragm collapse, is 0.4 for a CMUT single cell with a circular membrane diaphragm and no parasitic capacitance (0.36 for a cell with a circular plate diaphragm). This means that the dynamic coupling factor of a CMUT is comparable to that of a piezoceramic plate oscillating in the thickness mode. Parasitic capacitance decreases the value of kw, because it does not contribute to the energy conversion. The effective coupling factor keff is also investigated, showing that this parameter coincides with kw within the lumped model approximation, but a quite different result is obtained if a computation is made with the more accurate distributed model. As a consequence, keff, which can be measured from the transducer electrical impedance, does not give a reliable value of the actual dynamic coupling factor.

Synaptic dynamics and neuronal network connectivity are reflected in the distribution of times in Up states.

PubMed

Dao Duc, Khanh; Parutto, Pierre; Chen, Xiaowei; Epsztein, Jérôme; Konnerth, Arthur; Holcman, David

2015-01-01

The dynamics of neuronal networks connected by synaptic dynamics can sustain long periods of depolarization that can last for hundreds of milliseconds such as Up states recorded during sleep or anesthesia. Yet the underlying mechanism driving these periods remain unclear. We show here within a mean-field model that the residence time of the neuronal membrane potential in cortical Up states does not follow a Poissonian law, but presents several peaks. Furthermore, the present modeling approach allows extracting some information about the neuronal network connectivity from the time distribution histogram. Based on a synaptic-depression model, we find that these peaks, that can be observed in histograms of patch-clamp recordings are not artifacts of electrophysiological measurements, but rather are an inherent property of the network dynamics. Analysis of the equations reveals a stable focus located close to the unstable limit cycle, delimiting a region that defines the Up state. The model further shows that the peaks observed in the Up state time distribution are due to winding around the focus before escaping from the basin of attraction. Finally, we use in vivo recordings of intracellular membrane potential and we recover from the peak distribution, some information about the network connectivity. We conclude that it is possible to recover the network connectivity from the distribution of times that the neuronal membrane voltage spends in Up states.

Dynamic N -occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data

Treesearch

Sam Rossman; Charles B. Yackulic; Sarah P. Saunders; Janice Reid; Ray Davis; Elise F. Zipkin

2016-01-01

Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model (“dynamic

Dynamic Heterogeneous Multiscale Filtration Model: Probing Micro- and Macroscopic Filtration Characteristics of Gasoline Particulate Filters.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Viswanathan, Sandeep; Rothamer, David A; Foster, David E; Rutland, Christopher J

2017-10-03

Motivated by high filtration efficiency (mass- and number-based) and low pressure drop requirements for gasoline particulate filters (GPFs), a previously developed heterogeneous multiscale filtration (HMF) model is extended to simulate dynamic filtration characteristics of GPFs. This dynamic HMF model is based on a probability density function (PDF) description of the pore size distribution and classical filtration theory. The microstructure of the porous substrate in a GPF is resolved and included in the model. Fundamental particulate filtration experiments were conducted using an exhaust filtration analysis (EFA) system for model validation. The particulate in the filtration experiments was sampled from a spark-ignition direct-injection (SIDI) gasoline engine. With the dynamic HMF model, evolution of the microscopic characteristics of the substrate (pore size distribution, porosity, permeability, and deposited particulate inside the porous substrate) during filtration can be probed. Also, predicted macroscopic filtration characteristics including particle number concentration and normalized pressure drop show good agreement with the experimental data. The resulting dynamic HMF model can be used to study the dynamic particulate filtration process in GPFs with distinct microstructures, serving as a powerful tool for GPF design and optimization.

Reducing calibration parameters to increase insight in catchment organization and similarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Onof, Christian

2013-04-01

Ideally, hydrological models should be built from equations parameterised from observed catchment characteristics and data. This state of affairs may never be reached, but a governing principle in hydrological modelling should be to keep the number of calibration parameters to a minimum. A reduced number of parameters to be calibrated, while maintaining the accuracy and detail required by modern hydrological models, will reduce parameter and model structure uncertainty and improve model diagnostics. The dynamics of runoff for small catchments are derived from the distribution of distances from points in the catchments to the nearest stream in a catchment. This distribution is unique for each catchment and can be determined from a geographical information system (GIS). The distribution of distances, will, when a celerity of (subsurface) flow is introduced, provide a distribution of travel times, or a unit hydrograph (UH). For spatially varying levels of saturation deficit we have different celerities and, hence, different UHs. Runoff is derived from the super-positioning of the different UHs. This study shows how celerities can be estimated if we assume that recession events represent the superpositioned UH for different levels of saturation deficit. The performance of the DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model is compared to that of the Swedish HBV model and is found to perform equally well for eight Norwegian catchments although the number of parameters to be calibrated in the module concerning soil moisture and runoff dynamics is reduced from 7 in the HBV model to 1 in the DDD model. It is also shown that the DDD model has a more realistic representation of the subsurface hydrology. The transparency of the DDD model makes model diagnostics more easy and experience with DDD shows that differences in model performance may be related to differences in catchment characteristics. More specifically, it appears that the hydrological dynamics of bogs have to be taken especially into account when modelling Norwegian catchments.

Nanoscale dynamics of Joule heating and bubble nucleation in a solid-state nanopore.

PubMed

Levine, Edlyn V; Burns, Michael M; Golovchenko, Jene A

2016-01-01

We present a mathematical model for Joule heating of an electrolytic solution in a nanopore. The model couples the electrical and thermal dynamics responsible for rapid and extreme superheating of the electrolyte within the nanopore. The model is implemented numerically with a finite element calculation, yielding a time and spatially resolved temperature distribution in the nanopore region. Temperatures near the thermodynamic limit of superheat are predicted to be attained just before the explosive nucleation of a vapor bubble is observed experimentally. Knowledge of this temperature distribution enables the evaluation of related phenomena including bubble nucleation kinetics, relaxation oscillation, and bubble dynamics.

Stepwise inference of likely dynamic flux distributions from metabolic time series data.

PubMed

Faraji, Mojdeh; Voit, Eberhard O

2017-07-15

Most metabolic pathways contain more reactions than metabolites and therefore have a wide stoichiometric matrix that corresponds to infinitely many possible flux distributions that are perfectly compatible with the dynamics of the metabolites in a given dataset. This under-determinedness poses a challenge for the quantitative characterization of flux distributions from time series data and thus for the design of adequate, predictive models. Here we propose a method that reduces the degrees of freedom in a stepwise manner and leads to a dynamic flux distribution that is, in a statistical sense, likely to be close to the true distribution. We applied the proposed method to the lignin biosynthesis pathway in switchgrass. The system consists of 16 metabolites and 23 enzymatic reactions. It has seven degrees of freedom and therefore admits a large space of dynamic flux distributions that all fit a set of metabolic time series data equally well. The proposed method reduces this space in a systematic and biologically reasonable manner and converges to a likely dynamic flux distribution in just a few iterations. The estimated solution and the true flux distribution, which is known in this case, show excellent agreement and thereby lend support to the method. The computational model was implemented in MATLAB (version R2014a, The MathWorks, Natick, MA). The source code is available at https://github.gatech.edu/VoitLab/Stepwise-Inference-of-Likely-Dynamic-Flux-Distributions and www.bst.bme.gatech.edu/research.php . mojdeh@gatech.edu or eberhard.voit@bme.gatech.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

A fragmentation model of earthquake-like behavior in internet access activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paguirigan, Antonino A.; Angco, Marc Jordan G.; Bantang, Johnrob Y.

We present a fragmentation model that generates almost any inverse power-law size distribution, including dual-scaled versions, consistent with the underlying dynamics of systems with earthquake-like behavior. We apply the model to explain the dual-scaled power-law statistics observed in an Internet access dataset that covers more than 32 million requests. The non-Poissonian statistics of the requested data sizes m and the amount of time τ needed for complete processing are consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter-law. Inter-event times δt between subsequent requests are also shown to exhibit power-law distributions consistent with the generalized Omori law. Thus, the dataset is similar to the earthquake data except that two power-law regimes are observed. Using the proposed model, we are able to identify underlying dynamics responsible in generating the observed dual power-law distributions. The model is universal enough for its applicability to any physical and human dynamics that is limited by finite resources such as space, energy, time or opportunity.

Hamiltonian Analysis of Subcritical Stochastic Epidemic Dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the subcritical case. The limiting behavior of the model and approximation are qualitatively different in the subcritical case, requiring a novel analysis of the limiting behavior of the Hamiltonian system away from its deterministic subsystem. This yields a novel, general technique of approximation of the quasistationary distribution of stochastic epidemic and birth-death models and may lead to techniques for analysis of these models beyond the quasistationary distribution. For a classic SIS model, the approximation found for the quasistationary distribution is very similar to published approximations but not identical. For a birth-death process without depletion of susceptibles, the approximation is exact. Dynamics on the phase plane similar to those predicted by the Hamiltonian analysis are demonstrated in cross-sectional data from trachoma treatment trials in Ethiopia, in which declining prevalences are consistent with subcritical epidemic dynamics. PMID:28932256

Testing models of parental investment strategy and offspring size in ants.

PubMed

Gilboa, Smadar; Nonacs, Peter

2006-01-01

Parental investment strategies can be fixed or flexible. A fixed strategy predicts making all offspring a single 'optimal' size. Dynamic models predict flexible strategies with more than one optimal size of offspring. Patterns in the distribution of offspring sizes may thus reveal the investment strategy. Static strategies should produce normal distributions. Dynamic strategies should often result in non-normal distributions. Furthermore, variance in morphological traits should be positively correlated with the length of developmental time the traits are exposed to environmental influences. Finally, the type of deviation from normality (i.e., skewed left or right, or platykurtic) should be correlated with the average offspring size. To test the latter prediction, we used simulations to detect significant departures from normality and categorize distribution types. Data from three species of ants strongly support the predicted patterns for dynamic parental investment. Offspring size distributions are often significantly non-normal. Traits fixed earlier in development, such as head width, are less variable than final body weight. The type of distribution observed correlates with mean female dry weight. The overall support for a dynamic parental investment model has implications for life history theory. Predicted conflicts over parental effort, sex investment ratios, and reproductive skew in cooperative breeders follow from assumptions of static parental investment strategies and omnipresent resource limitations. By contrast, with flexible investment strategies such conflicts can be either absent or maladaptive.

Dynamical behavior of susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model on weighted networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qingchu; Zhang, Fei

2018-02-01

We study susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model in weighted, regular, and random complex networks. We institute a pairwise-type mathematical model with a general transmission rate to evaluate the influence of the link-weight distribution on the spreading process. Furthermore, we develop a dimensionality reduction approach to derive the condition for the contagion outbreak. Finally, we analyze the influence of the heterogeneity of weight distribution on the outbreak condition for the scenario with a linear transmission rate. Our theoretical analysis is in agreement with stochastic simulations, showing that the heterogeneity of link-weight distribution can have a significant effect on the epidemic dynamics.

Importance of filter’s microstructure in dynamic filtration modeling of gasoline particulate filters (GPFs): Inhomogeneous porosity and pore size distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, Jian; Stewart, Mark L.; Zelenyuk, Alla

The state-of-the-art multiscale modeling of GPFs including channel scale, wall scale, and pore scale is described. The microstructures of two GPFs were experimentally characterized. The pore size distributions of the GPFs were determined by mercury porosimetry. The porosity was measured by X-ray computed tomography (CT) and found to be inhomogeneous across the substrate wall. The significance of pore size distribution with respect to filtration performance was analyzed. The predictions of filtration efficiency were improved by including the pore size distribution in the filtration model. A dynamic heterogeneous multiscale filtration (HMF) model was utilized to simulate particulate filtration on a singlemore » channel particulate filter with realistic particulate emissions from a spark-ignition direct-injection (SIDI) gasoline engine. The dynamic evolution of filter’s microstructure and macroscopic filtration characteristics including mass- and number-based filtration efficiencies and pressure drop were predicted and discussed. The microstructure of the GPF substrate including inhomogeneous porosity and pore size distribution is found to significantly influence local particulate deposition inside the substrate and macroscopic filtration performance and is recommended to be resolved in the filtration model to simulate and evaluate the filtration performance of GPFs.« less

Importance of filter’s microstructure in dynamic filtration modeling of gasoline particulate filters (GPFs): Inhomogeneous porosity and pore size distribution

DOE PAGES

Gong, Jian; Stewart, Mark L.; Zelenyuk, Alla; ...

2018-01-03

The state-of-the-art multiscale modeling of gasoline particulate filter (GPF) including channel scale, wall scale, and pore scale is described. The microstructures of two GPFs were experimentally characterized. The pore size distributions of the GPFs were determined by mercury porosimetry. The porosity was measured by X-ray computed tomography (CT) and found to be inhomogeneous across the substrate wall. The significance of pore size distribution with respect to filtration performance was analyzed. The predictions of filtration efficiency were improved by including the pore size distribution in the filtration model. A dynamic heterogeneous multiscale filtration (HMF) model was utilized to simulate particulate filtrationmore » on a single channel particulate filter with realistic particulate emissions from a spark-ignition direct-injection (SIDI) gasoline engine. The dynamic evolution of filter’s microstructure and macroscopic filtration characteristics including mass- and number-based filtration efficiencies and pressure drop were predicted and discussed. In conclusion, the microstructure of the GPF substrate including inhomogeneous porosity and pore size distribution is found to significantly influence local particulate deposition inside the substrate and macroscopic filtration performance and is recommended to be resolved in the filtration model to simulate and evaluate the filtration performance of GPFs.« less

Importance of filter’s microstructure in dynamic filtration modeling of gasoline particulate filters (GPFs): Inhomogeneous porosity and pore size distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, Jian; Stewart, Mark L.; Zelenyuk, Alla

The state-of-the-art multiscale modeling of gasoline particulate filter (GPF) including channel scale, wall scale, and pore scale is described. The microstructures of two GPFs were experimentally characterized. The pore size distributions of the GPFs were determined by mercury porosimetry. The porosity was measured by X-ray computed tomography (CT) and found to be inhomogeneous across the substrate wall. The significance of pore size distribution with respect to filtration performance was analyzed. The predictions of filtration efficiency were improved by including the pore size distribution in the filtration model. A dynamic heterogeneous multiscale filtration (HMF) model was utilized to simulate particulate filtrationmore » on a single channel particulate filter with realistic particulate emissions from a spark-ignition direct-injection (SIDI) gasoline engine. The dynamic evolution of filter’s microstructure and macroscopic filtration characteristics including mass- and number-based filtration efficiencies and pressure drop were predicted and discussed. In conclusion, the microstructure of the GPF substrate including inhomogeneous porosity and pore size distribution is found to significantly influence local particulate deposition inside the substrate and macroscopic filtration performance and is recommended to be resolved in the filtration model to simulate and evaluate the filtration performance of GPFs.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Hang, E-mail: hangchen@mit.edu; Thill, Peter; Cao, Jianshu

In biochemical systems, intrinsic noise may drive the system switch from one stable state to another. We investigate how kinetic switching between stable states in a bistable network is influenced by dynamic disorder, i.e., fluctuations in the rate coefficients. Using the geometric minimum action method, we first investigate the optimal transition paths and the corresponding minimum actions based on a genetic toggle switch model in which reaction coefficients draw from a discrete probability distribution. For the continuous probability distribution of the rate coefficient, we then consider two models of dynamic disorder in which reaction coefficients undergo different stochastic processes withmore » the same stationary distribution. In one, the kinetic parameters follow a discrete Markov process and in the other they follow continuous Langevin dynamics. We find that regulation of the parameters modulating the dynamic disorder, as has been demonstrated to occur through allosteric control in bistable networks in the immune system, can be crucial in shaping the statistics of optimal transition paths, transition probabilities, and the stationary probability distribution of the network.« less

Systematics of capture and fusion dynamics in heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bing; Wen, Kai; Zhao, Wei-Juan; Zhao, En-Guang; Zhou, Shan-Gui

2017-03-01

We perform a systematic study of capture excitation functions by using an empirical coupled-channel (ECC) model. In this model, a barrier distribution is used to take effectively into account the effects of couplings between the relative motion and intrinsic degrees of freedom. The shape of the barrier distribution is of an asymmetric Gaussian form. The effect of neutron transfer channels is also included in the barrier distribution. Based on the interaction potential between the projectile and the target, empirical formulas are proposed to determine the parameters of the barrier distribution. Theoretical estimates for barrier distributions and calculated capture cross sections together with experimental cross sections of 220 reaction systems with 182 ⩽ZPZT ⩽ 1640 are tabulated. The results show that the ECC model together with the empirical formulas for parameters of the barrier distribution work quite well in the energy region around the Coulomb barrier. This ECC model can provide prediction of capture cross sections for the synthesis of superheavy nuclei as well as valuable information on capture and fusion dynamics.

Classification and recognition of dynamical models: the role of phase, independent components, kernels and optimal transport.

PubMed

Bissacco, Alessandro; Chiuso, Alessandro; Soatto, Stefano

2007-11-01

We address the problem of performing decision tasks, and in particular classification and recognition, in the space of dynamical models in order to compare time series of data. Motivated by the application of recognition of human motion in image sequences, we consider a class of models that include linear dynamics, both stable and marginally stable (periodic), both minimum and non-minimum phase, driven by non-Gaussian processes. This requires extending existing learning and system identification algorithms to handle periodic modes and nonminimum phase behavior, while taking into account higher-order statistics of the data. Once a model is identified, we define a kernel-based cord distance between models that includes their dynamics, their initial conditions as well as input distribution. This is made possible by a novel kernel defined between two arbitrary (non-Gaussian) distributions, which is computed by efficiently solving an optimal transport problem. We validate our choice of models, inference algorithm, and distance on the tasks of human motion synthesis (sample paths of the learned models), and recognition (nearest-neighbor classification in the computed distance). However, our work can be applied more broadly where one needs to compare historical data while taking into account periodic trends, non-minimum phase behavior, and non-Gaussian input distributions.

Significant Findings: Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients With a Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model. 2; Comparisons With Satellite and In Situ Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model were determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (>1000 km) model chlorophyll seasonal distributions were statistically positively correlated with CZCS chlorophyll in 10 of 12 major oceanographic regions, and with SeaWiFS in all 12. Notable disparities in magnitudes occurred, however, in the tropical Pacific, the spring/summer bloom in the Antarctic, autumn in the northern high latitudes, and during the southwest monsoon in the North Indian Ocean. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of satellite and in situ data exhibited broad agreement, although occasional departures were apparent. Model nitrate distributions agreed with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicated that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on basin and synoptic scales.

Models, Entropy and Information of Temporal Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Kun; Karsai, Márton; Bianconi, Ginestra

Temporal social networks are characterized by heterogeneous duration of contacts, which can either follow a power-law distribution, such as in face-to-face interactions, or a Weibull distribution, such as in mobile-phone communication. Here we model the dynamics of face-to-face interaction and mobile phone communication by a reinforcement dynamics, which explains the data observed in these different types of social interactions. We quantify the information encoded in the dynamics of these networks by the entropy of temporal networks. Finally, we show evidence that human dynamics is able to modulate the information present in social network dynamics when it follows circadian rhythms and when it is interfacing with a new technology such as the mobile-phone communication technology.

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

Comparing the Performance of Two Dynamic Load Distribution Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kale, L. V.

1987-01-01

Parallel processing of symbolic computations on a message-passing multi-processor presents one challenge: To effectively utilize the available processors, the load must be distributed uniformly to all the processors. However, the structure of these computations cannot be predicted in advance. go, static scheduling methods are not applicable. In this paper, we compare the performance of two dynamic, distributed load balancing methods with extensive simulation studies. The two schemes are: the Contracting Within a Neighborhood (CWN) scheme proposed by us, and the Gradient Model proposed by Lin and Keller. We conclude that although simpler, the CWN is significantly more effective at distributing the work than the Gradient model.

Construction of a microscopic agent-based model for firms' dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyetomi, Hiroshi; Aoyama, Hideaki; Fujiwara, Yoshi; Ikeda, Yuichi; Kaizoji, Taisei; Soma, Wataru

2005-07-01

A workable microscopic model for firms' dynamics has been constructed. The model consists of firm agents and a bank agent dynamics of which are described by balance sheets. The size distribution of firms and the temporal evolution of the bank show critical dependence on whether or not firms use perfect information on their financial conditions to draw up next production plans.

Stress Distribution During Deformation of Polycrystalline Aluminum by Molecular-Dynamics and Finite-Element Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yamakov, V.; Saether, E.; Phillips, D.; Glaessgen, E. H.

2004-01-01

In this paper, a multiscale modelling strategy is used to study the effect of grain-boundary sliding on stress localization in a polycrystalline microstructure with an uneven distribution of grain size. The development of the molecular dynamics (MD) analysis used to interrogate idealized grain microstructures with various types of grain boundaries and the multiscale modelling strategies for modelling large systems of grains is discussed. Both molecular-dynamics and finite-element (FE) simulations for idealized polycrystalline models of identical geometry are presented with the purpose of demonstrating the effectiveness of the adapted finite-element method using cohesive zone models to reproduce grain-boundary sliding and its effect on the stress distribution in a polycrystalline metal. The yield properties of the grain-boundary interface, used in the FE simulations, are extracted from a MD simulation on a bicrystal. The models allow for the study of the load transfer between adjacent grains of very different size through grain-boundary sliding during deformation. A large-scale FE simulation of 100 grains of a typical microstructure is then presented to reveal that the stress distribution due to grain-boundary sliding during uniform tensile strain can lead to stress localization of two to three times the background stress, thus suggesting a significant effect on the failure properties of the metal.

A fractal approach to dynamic inference and distribution analysis

PubMed Central

van Rooij, Marieke M. J. W.; Nash, Bertha A.; Rajaraman, Srinivasan; Holden, John G.

2013-01-01

Event-distributions inform scientists about the variability and dispersion of repeated measurements. This dispersion can be understood from a complex systems perspective, and quantified in terms of fractal geometry. The key premise is that a distribution's shape reveals information about the governing dynamics of the system that gave rise to the distribution. Two categories of characteristic dynamics are distinguished: additive systems governed by component-dominant dynamics and multiplicative or interdependent systems governed by interaction-dominant dynamics. A logic by which systems governed by interaction-dominant dynamics are expected to yield mixtures of lognormal and inverse power-law samples is discussed. These mixtures are described by a so-called cocktail model of response times derived from human cognitive performances. The overarching goals of this article are twofold: First, to offer readers an introduction to this theoretical perspective and second, to offer an overview of the related statistical methods. PMID:23372552

Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO ... DYNAMO time period. APPROACH We are working as a team to study MJO dynamics and predictability using several models as team members of the ONR DRI...associated with the DYNAMO experiment. This is a fundamentally collaborative proposal that involves close collaboration with Dr. Hyodae Seo of the

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Modelling of the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis Perturbations by Externally Induced Cholesterol Pulses of Finite Duration and with Asymmetrically Distributed Concentration Profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanojević, A.; Marković, V. M.; Čupić, Ž.; Vukojević, V.; Kolar-Anić, L.

2017-12-01

A model was developed that can be used to study the effect of gradual cholesterol intake by food on the HPA axis dynamics. Namely, well defined oscillatory dynamics of vital neuroendocrine hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis has proven to be necessary for maintaining regular basal physiology and formulating appropriate stress response to various types of perturbations. Cholesterol, as a precursor of all steroid HPA axis hormones, can alter the dynamics of HPA axis. To analyse its particular influence on the HPA axis dynamics we used stoichiometric model of HPA axis activity, and simulate cholesterol perturbations in the form of finite duration pulses, with asymmetrically distributed concentration profile. Our numerical simulations showed that there is a complex, nonlinear dependence between the HPA axis responsiveness and different forms of applied cholesterol concentration pulses, indicating the significance of kinetic modelling, and dynamical systems theory for the understanding of large-scale self-regulatory, and homeostatic processes within this neuroendocrine system.

A semi-analytic dynamical friction model for cored galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petts, J. A.; Read, J. I.; Gualandris, A.

2016-11-01

We present a dynamical friction model based on Chandrasekhar's formula that reproduces the fast inspiral and stalling experienced by satellites orbiting galaxies with a large constant density core. We show that the fast inspiral phase does not owe to resonance. Rather, it owes to the background velocity distribution function for the constant density core being dissimilar from the usually assumed Maxwellian distribution. Using the correct background velocity distribution function and our semi-analytic model from previous work, we are able to correctly reproduce the infall rate in both cored and cusped potentials. However, in the case of large cores, our model is no longer able to correctly capture core-stalling. We show that this stalling owes to the tidal radius of the satellite approaching the size of the core. By switching off dynamical friction when rt(r) = r (where rt is the tidal radius at the satellite's position), we arrive at a model which reproduces the N-body results remarkably well. Since the tidal radius can be very large for constant density background distributions, our model recovers the result that stalling can occur for Ms/Menc ≪ 1, where Ms and Menc are the mass of the satellite and the enclosed galaxy mass, respectively. Finally, we include the contribution to dynamical friction that comes from stars moving faster than the satellite. This next-to-leading order effect becomes the dominant driver of inspiral near the core region, prior to stalling.

Modeling vegetation rooting strategies on a hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivandran, G.; Bras, R. L.

2011-12-01

The manner in which water and energy is partitioned and redistributed along a hillslope is the result of complex coupled ecohydrological interactions between the climatic, soils, topography and vegetation operating over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. Distributed process based modeling creates a framework through which the interaction of vegetation with the subtle differences in the spatial and temporal dynamics of soil moisture that arise under localized abiotic conditions along a hillslope can be simulated and examined. One deficiency in the current dynamic vegetation models is the one sided manner in which vegetation responds to soil moisture dynamics. Above ground, vegetation is given the freedom to dynamically evolve through alterations in fractional vegetation cover and/or canopy height and density; however below ground rooting profiles are simplistically represented and often held constant in time and space. The need to better represent the belowground role of vegetation through dynamic rooting strategies is fundamental in capturing the magnitude and timing of water and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and land surface. In order to allow vegetation to adapt to gradients in soil moisture a dynamic rooting scheme was incorporated into tRIBS+VEGGIE (a physically based distributed ecohydrological model). The dynamic rooting scheme allows vegetation the freedom to adapt their rooting depth and distribution in response abiotic conditions in a way that more closely mimics observed plant behavior. The incorporation of this belowground plasticity results in vegetation employing a suite of rooting strategies based on soil texture, climatic conditions and location on the hillslope.

Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Martínez-Campos, Carmen; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2005-09-01

Numerous human diseases-malaria, dengue, yellow fever and leishmaniasis, to name a few-are transmitted by insect vectors with brief life cycles and biting activity that varies in both space and time. Although the general geographic distributions of these epidemiologically important species are known, the spatiotemporal variation in their emergence and activity remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling via a genetic algorithm to produce time-specific predictive models of monthly distributions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico in 1995. Significant predictions of monthly mosquito activity and distributions indicate that predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of disease vector species is feasible; significant coincidence with human cases of dengue indicate that these dynamics probably translate directly into transmission of dengue virus to humans. This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk.

Dynamic modeling of moment wheel assemblies with nonlinear rolling bearing supports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hong; Han, Qinkai; Luo, Ruizhi; Qing, Tao

2017-10-01

Moment wheel assemblies (MWA) have been widely used in spacecraft attitude control and large angle slewing maneuvers over the years. Understanding and controlling vibration of MWAs is a crucial factor to achieving the desired level of payload performance. Dynamic modeling of a MWA with nonlinear rolling bearing supports is conducted. An improved load distribution analysis is proposed to more accurately obtain the contact deformations and angles between the rolling balls and raceways. Then, the bearing restoring forces are then obtained through iteratively solving the load distribution equations at every time step. The effects of preload condition, surface waviness, Hertz contact and elastohydrodynamic lubrication could all be reflected in the nonlinear bearing forces. Considering the mass imbalances of the flywheel, flexibility of supporting structures and rolling bearing nonlinearity, the dynamic model of a typical MWA is established based upon the energy theorem. Dynamic tests are conducted to verify the nonlinear dynamic model. The influences of flywheel mass eccentricity and inner/outer waviness amplitudes on the dynamic responses are discussed in detail. The obtained results would be useful for the design and vibration control of the MWA system.

Stochastic processes in the social sciences: Markets, prices and wealth distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero, Natalia E.

The present work uses statistical mechanics tools to investigate the dynamics of markets, prices, trades and wealth distribution. We studied the evolution of market dynamics in different stages of historical development by analyzing commodity prices from two distinct periods ancient Babylon, and medieval and early modern England. We find that the first-digit distributions of both Babylon and England commodity prices follow Benfords law, indicating that the data represent empirical observations typically arising from a free market. Further, we find that the normalized prices of both Babylon and England agricultural commodities are characterized by stretched exponential distributions, and exhibit persistent correlations of a power law type over long periods of up to several centuries, in contrast to contemporary markets. Our findings suggest that similar market interactions may underlie the dynamics of ancient agricultural commodity prices, and that these interactions may remain stable across centuries. To further investigate the dynamics of markets we present the analogy between transfers of money between individuals and the transfer of energy through particle collisions by means of the kinetic theory of gases. We introduce a theoretical framework of how the micro rules of trading lead to the emergence of income and wealth distribution. Particularly, we study the effects of different types of distribution of savings/investments among individuals in a society and different welfare/subsidies redistribution policies. Results show that while considering savings propensities the models approach empirical distributions of wealth quite well the effect of redistribution better captures specific features of the distributions which earlier models failed to do; moreover the models still preserve the exponential decay observed in empirical income distributions reported by tax data and surveys.

Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients: Analysis with a Coupled Ocean General Circulation Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.

1999-01-01

A coupled general ocean circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. The model is driven by climatological meteorological conditions, cloud cover, and sea surface temperature. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrient groups (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Phytoplankton groups are initialized as homogeneous fields horizontally and vertically, and allowed to distribute themselves according to the prevailing conditions. Basin-scale model chlorophyll results are in very good agreement with CZCS pigments in virtually every global region. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also well represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are also in good conformance, although occasional departures are apparent. Agreement of nitrate distributions with in situ data is even better, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The good agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics realistically simulate phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization, and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Importance of vegetation distribution for future carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, A.; Xia, J.; Arneth, A.; Luo, Y.; Smith, B.

2015-12-01

Projections of future terrestrial carbon uptake vary greatly between simulations. Net primary production (NPP), wild fires, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts) and soil decomposition constitute the main processes governing the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate. While primary production and soil respiration are relatively well studied and implemented in all global ecosystem models used to project the future land sink of CO2, vegetation dynamics are less studied and not always represented in global models. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality and the associated turnover and proven skill in predicting vegetation distribution and succession. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing at year 2085. We exchanged carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations and investigate the changes predicted by the emulator. This method allowed us to partition the entire ensemble carbon uptake uncertainty into individual processes. We found that NPP, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33% respectively of uncertainties in modeled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation dynamics was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by shifts in vegetation distribution, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Process-based modeling of species' responses to climate change - a proof of concept using western North American trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, M. E.; Merow, C.; Record, S.; Menlove, J.; Gray, A.; Cundiff, J.; McMahon, S.; Enquist, B. J.

2013-12-01

Current attempts to forecast how species' distributions will change in response to climate change suffer under a fundamental trade-off: between modeling many species superficially vs. few species in detail (between correlative vs. mechanistic models). The goals of this talk are two-fold: first, we present a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, dynamic range modeling (DRM), for building process-based forecasts of many species' distributions at a time, designed to address the trade-off between detail and number of distribution forecasts. In contrast to 'species distribution modeling' or 'niche modeling', which uses only species' occurrence data and environmental data, DRMs draw upon demographic data, abundance data, trait data, occurrence data, and GIS layers of climate in a single framework to account for two processes known to influence range dynamics - demography and dispersal. The vision is to use extensive databases on plant demography, distributions, and traits - in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network, the Forest Inventory and Analysis database (FIA), and the International Tree Ring Data Bank - to develop DRMs for North American trees. Second, we present preliminary results from building the core submodel of a DRM - an integral projection model (IPM) - for a sample of dominant tree species in western North America. IPMs are used to infer demographic niches - i.e., the set of environmental conditions under which population growth rate is positive - and project population dynamics through time. Based on >550,000 data points derived from FIA for nine tree species in western North America, we show IPM-based models of their current and future distributions, and discuss how IPMs can be used to forecast future forest productivity, mortality patterns, and inform efforts at assisted migration.

NACA0012 benchmark model experimental flutter results with unsteady pressure distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rivera, Jose A., Jr.; Dansberry, Bryan E.; Bennett, Robert M.; Durham, Michael H.; Silva, Walter A.

1992-01-01

The Structural Dynamics Division at NASA Langley Research Center has started a wind tunnel activity referred to as the Benchmark Models Program. The primary objective of this program is to acquire measured dynamic instability and corresponding pressure data that will be useful for developing and evaluating aeroelastic type computational fluid dynamics codes currently in use or under development. The program is a multi-year activity that will involve testing of several different models to investigate various aeroelastic phenomena. This paper describes results obtained from a second wind tunnel test of the first model in the Benchmark Models Program. This first model consisted of a rigid semispan wing having a rectangular planform and a NACA 0012 airfoil shape which was mounted on a flexible two degree of freedom mount system. Experimental flutter boundaries and corresponding unsteady pressure distribution data acquired over two model chords located at the 60 and 95 percent span stations are presented.

Work distributions of one-dimensional fermions and bosons with dual contact interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Zhang, Jingning; Quan, H. T.

2018-05-01

We extend the well-known static duality [M. Girardeau, J. Math. Phys. 1, 516 (1960), 10.1063/1.1703687; T. Cheon and T. Shigehara, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 2536 (1999), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.82.2536] between one-dimensional (1D) bosons and 1D fermions to the dynamical version. By utilizing this dynamical duality, we find the duality of nonequilibrium work distributions between interacting 1D bosonic (Lieb-Liniger model) and 1D fermionic (Cheon-Shigehara model) systems with dual contact interactions. As a special case, the work distribution of the Tonks-Girardeau gas is identical to that of 1D noninteracting fermionic system even though their momentum distributions are significantly different. In the classical limit, the work distributions of Lieb-Liniger models (Cheon-Shigehara models) with arbitrary coupling strength converge to that of the 1D noninteracting distinguishable particles, although their elementary excitations (quasiparticles) obey different statistics, e.g., the Bose-Einstein, the Fermi-Dirac, and the fractional statistics. We also present numerical results of the work distributions of Lieb-Liniger model with various coupling strengths, which demonstrate the convergence of work distributions in the classical limit.

Framework for cascade size calculations on random networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkholz, Rebekka; Schweitzer, Frank

2018-04-01

We present a framework to calculate the cascade size evolution for a large class of cascade models on random network ensembles in the limit of infinite network size. Our method is exact and applies to network ensembles with almost arbitrary degree distribution, degree-degree correlations, and, in case of threshold models, for arbitrary threshold distribution. With our approach, we shift the perspective from the known branching process approximations to the iterative update of suitable probability distributions. Such distributions are key to capture cascade dynamics that involve possibly continuous quantities and that depend on the cascade history, e.g., if load is accumulated over time. As a proof of concept, we provide two examples: (a) Constant load models that cover many of the analytically tractable casacade models, and, as a highlight, (b) a fiber bundle model that was not tractable by branching process approximations before. Our derivations cover the whole cascade dynamics, not only their steady state. This allows us to include interventions in time or further model complexity in the analysis.

Made-to-measure modelling of observed galaxy dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovy, Jo; Kawata, Daisuke; Hunt, Jason A. S.

2018-01-01

Amongst dynamical modelling techniques, the made-to-measure (M2M) method for modelling steady-state systems is amongst the most flexible, allowing non-parametric distribution functions in complex gravitational potentials to be modelled efficiently using N-body particles. Here, we propose and test various improvements to the standard M2M method for modelling observed data, illustrated using the simple set-up of a one-dimensional harmonic oscillator. We demonstrate that nuisance parameters describing the modelled system's orientation with respect to the observer - e.g. an external galaxy's inclination or the Sun's position in the Milky Way - as well as the parameters of an external gravitational field can be optimized simultaneously with the particle weights. We develop a method for sampling from the high-dimensional uncertainty distribution of the particle weights. We combine this in a Gibbs sampler with samplers for the nuisance and potential parameters to explore the uncertainty distribution of the full set of parameters. We illustrate our M2M improvements by modelling the vertical density and kinematics of F-type stars in Gaia DR1. The novel M2M method proposed here allows full probabilistic modelling of steady-state dynamical systems, allowing uncertainties on the non-parametric distribution function and on nuisance parameters to be taken into account when constraining the dark and baryonic masses of stellar systems.

Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

2018-02-01

Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

Don't Fear Optimality: Sampling for Probabilistic-Logic Sequence Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thon, Ingo

One of the current challenges in artificial intelligence is modeling dynamic environments that change due to the actions or activities undertaken by people or agents. The task of inferring hidden states, e.g. the activities or intentions of people, based on observations is called filtering. Standard probabilistic models such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks are able to solve this task efficiently using approximative methods such as particle filters. However, these models do not support logical or relational representations. The key contribution of this paper is the upgrade of a particle filter algorithm for use with a probabilistic logical representation through the definition of a proposal distribution. The performance of the algorithm depends largely on how well this distribution fits the target distribution. We adopt the idea of logical compilation into Binary Decision Diagrams for sampling. This allows us to use the optimal proposal distribution which is normally prohibitively slow.

Dynamical thermalization in isolated quantum dots and black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolovsky, Andrey R.; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

2017-01-01

We study numerically a model of quantum dot with interacting fermions. At strong interactions with small conductance the model is reduced to the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev black-hole model while at weak interactions and large conductance it describes a Landau-Fermi liquid in a regime of quantum chaos. We show that above the Åberg threshold for interactions there is an onset of dynamical themalization with the Fermi-Dirac distribution describing the eigenstates of an isolated dot. At strong interactions in the isolated black-hole regime there is also the onset of dynamical thermalization with the entropy described by the quantum Gibbs distribution. This dynamical thermalization takes place in an isolated system without any contact with a thermostat. We discuss the possible realization of these regimes with quantum dots of 2D electrons and cold ions in optical lattices.

Mathematical model for predicting human vertebral fracture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benedict, J. V.

1973-01-01

Mathematical model has been constructed to predict dynamic response of tapered, curved beam columns in as much as human spine closely resembles this form. Model takes into consideration effects of impact force, mass distribution, and material properties. Solutions were verified by dynamic tests on curved, tapered, elastic polyethylene beam.

The role of root distribution in eco-hydrological modeling in semi-arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivandran, G.; Bras, R. L.

2010-12-01

In semi arid regions, the rooting strategies employed by vegetation can be critical to its survival. Arid regions are characterized by high variability in the arrival of rainfall, and species found in these areas have adapted mechanisms to ensure the capture of this scarce resource. Niche separation, through rooting strategies, is one manner in which different species coexist. At present, land surface models prescribe rooting profiles as a function of only the plant functional type of interest with no consideration for the soil texture or rainfall regime of the region being modeled. These models do not incorporate the ability of vegetation to dynamically alter their rooting strategies in response to transient changes in environmental forcings and therefore tend to underestimate the resilience of many of these ecosystems. A coupled, dynamic vegetation and hydrologic model, tRIBS+VEGGIE, was used to explore the role of vertical root distribution on hydrologic fluxes. Point scale simulations were carried out using two vertical root distribution schemes: (i) Static - a temporally invariant root distribution; and (ii) Dynamic - a temporally variable allocation of assimilated carbon at any depth within the root zone in order to minimize the soil moisture-induced stress on the vegetation. The simulations were forced with a stochastic climate generator calibrated to weather stations and rain gauges in the semi-arid Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in Arizona. For the static root distribution scheme, a series of simulations were carried out varying the shape of the rooting profile. The optimal distribution for the simulation was defined as the root distribution with the maximum mean transpiration over a 200 year period. This optimal distribution was determined for 5 soil textures and using 2 plant functional types, and the results varied from case to case. The dynamic rooting simulations allow vegetation the freedom to adjust the allocation of assimilated carbon to different rooting depths in response to changes in stress caused by the redistribution and uptake of soil moisture. The results obtained from these experiments elucidate the strong link between plant functional type, soil texture and climate and highlight the potential errors in the modeling of hydrologic fluxes from imposing a static root profile.

Intratumor distribution and test-retest comparisons of physiological parameters quantified by dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI in rat U251 glioma.

PubMed

Aryal, Madhava P; Nagaraja, Tavarekere N; Brown, Stephen L; Lu, Mei; Bagher-Ebadian, Hassan; Ding, Guangliang; Panda, Swayamprava; Keenan, Kelly; Cabral, Glauber; Mikkelsen, Tom; Ewing, James R

2014-10-01

The distribution of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) parametric estimates in a rat U251 glioma model was analyzed. Using Magnevist as contrast agent (CA), 17 nude rats implanted with U251 cerebral glioma were studied by DCE-MRI twice in a 24 h interval. A data-driven analysis selected one of three models to estimate either (1) plasma volume (vp), (2) vp and forward volume transfer constant (K(trans)) or (3) vp, K(trans) and interstitial volume fraction (ve), constituting Models 1, 2 and 3, respectively. CA distribution volume (VD) was estimated in Model 3 regions by Logan plots. Regions of interest (ROIs) were selected by model. In the Model 3 ROI, descriptors of parameter distributions--mean, median, variance and skewness--were calculated and compared between the two time points for repeatability. All distributions of parametric estimates in Model 3 ROIs were positively skewed. Test-retest differences between population summaries for any parameter were not significant (p ≥ 0.10; Wilcoxon signed-rank and paired t tests). These and similar measures of parametric distribution and test-retest variance from other tumor models can be used to inform the choice of biomarkers that best summarize tumor status and treatment effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Experimental design for dynamics identification of cellular processes.

PubMed

Dinh, Vu; Rundell, Ann E; Buzzard, Gregery T

2014-03-01

We address the problem of using nonlinear models to design experiments to characterize the dynamics of cellular processes by using the approach of the Maximally Informative Next Experiment (MINE), which was introduced in W. Dong et al. (PLoS ONE 3(8):e3105, 2008) and independently in M.M. Donahue et al. (IET Syst. Biol. 4:249-262, 2010). In this approach, existing data is used to define a probability distribution on the parameters; the next measurement point is the one that yields the largest model output variance with this distribution. Building upon this approach, we introduce the Expected Dynamics Estimator (EDE), which is the expected value using this distribution of the output as a function of time. We prove the consistency of this estimator (uniform convergence to true dynamics) even when the chosen experiments cluster in a finite set of points. We extend this proof of consistency to various practical assumptions on noisy data and moderate levels of model mismatch. Through the derivation and proof, we develop a relaxed version of MINE that is more computationally tractable and robust than the original formulation. The results are illustrated with numerical examples on two nonlinear ordinary differential equation models of biomolecular and cellular processes.

A Theoretical Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Model for Systems Controls and Stability Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Brinson, Thomas; Credle, Sydni

2008-01-01

As the aviation industry moves toward higher efficiency electrical power generation, all electric aircraft, or zero emissions and more quiet aircraft, fuel cells are sought as the technology that can deliver on these high expectations. The hybrid solid oxide fuel cell system combines the fuel cell with a micro-turbine to obtain up to 70% cycle efficiency, and then distributes the electrical power to the loads via a power distribution system. The challenge is to understand the dynamics of this complex multidiscipline system and the design distributed controls that take the system through its operating conditions in a stable and safe manner while maintaining the system performance. This particular system is a power generation and a distribution system, and the fuel cell and micro-turbine model fidelity should be compatible with the dynamics of the power distribution system in order to allow proper stability and distributed controls design. The novelty in this paper is that, first, the case is made why a high fidelity fuel cell mode is needed for systems control and stability designs. Second, a novel modeling approach is proposed for the fuel cell that will allow the fuel cell and the power system to be integrated and designed for stability, distributed controls, and other interface specifications. This investigation shows that for the fuel cell, the voltage characteristic should be modeled but in addition, conservation equation dynamics, ion diffusion, charge transfer kinetics, and the electron flow inherent impedance should also be included.

Revisiting r > g-The asymptotic dynamics of wealth inequality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berman, Yonatan; Shapira, Yoash

2017-02-01

Studying the underlying mechanisms of wealth inequality dynamics is essential for its understanding and for policy aiming to regulate its level. We apply a heterogeneous non-interacting agent-based modeling approach, solved using iterated maps to model the dynamics of wealth inequality based on 3 parameters-the economic output growth rate g, the capital value change rate a and the personal savings rate s and show that for a < g the wealth distribution reaches an asymptotic shape and becomes close to the income distribution. If a > g, the wealth distribution constantly becomes more and more inegalitarian. We also show that when a < g, wealth is asymptotically accumulated at the same rate as the economic output, which also implies that the wealth-disposable income ratio asymptotically converges to s /(g - a) .

Scaling behavior in the dynamics of citations to scientific journals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picoli, S., Jr.; Mendes, R. S.; Malacarne, L. C.; Lenzi, E. K.

2006-08-01

We analyze a database comprising the impact factor (citations per recent items published) of scientific journals for a 13-year period (1992 2004). We find that i) the distribution of impact factors follows asymptotic power law behavior, ii) the distribution of annual logarithmic growth rates has an exponential form, and iii) the width of this distribution decays with the impact factor as a power law with exponent β simeq 0.22. The results ii) and iii) are surprising similar to those observed in the growth dynamics of organizations with complex internal structure suggesting the existence of common mechanisms underlying the dynamics of these systems. We propose a general model for such systems, an extension of the simplest model for firm growth, and compare their predictions with our empirical results.

Thermal noise model of antiferromagnetic dynamics: A macroscopic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xilai; Semenov, Yuriy; Kim, Ki Wook

In the search for post-silicon technologies, antiferromagnetic (AFM) spintronics is receiving widespread attention. Due to faster dynamics when compared with its ferromagnetic counterpart, AFM enables ultra-fast magnetization switching and THz oscillations. A crucial factor that affects the stability of antiferromagnetic dynamics is the thermal fluctuation, rarely considered in AFM research. Here, we derive from theory both stochastic dynamic equations for the macroscopic AFM Neel vector (L-vector) and the corresponding Fokker-Plank equation for the L-vector distribution function. For the dynamic equation approach, thermal noise is modeled by a stochastic fluctuating magnetic field that affects the AFM dynamics. The field is correlated within the correlation time and the amplitude is derived from the energy dissipation theory. For the distribution function approach, the inertial behavior of AFM dynamics forces consideration of the generalized space, including both coordinates and velocities. Finally, applying the proposed thermal noise model, we analyze a particular case of L-vector reversal of AFM nanoparticles by voltage controlled perpendicular magnetic anisotropy (PMA) with a tailored pulse width. This work was supported, in part, by SRC/NRI SWAN.

Tin particle size measurements in high explosively driven shockwave experiments using Mie scattering method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monfared, Shabnam; Buttler, William; Schauer, Martin; Lalone, Brandon; Pack, Cora; Stevens, Gerald; Stone, Joseph; Special Technologies Laboratory Collaboration; Los Alamos National Laboratory Team

2014-03-01

Los Alamos National Laboratory is actively engaged in the study of material failure physics to support the hydrodynamic models development, where an important failure mechanism of explosively shocked metals causes mass ejection from the backside of a shocked surface with surface perturbations. Ejecta models are in development for this situation. Our past work has clearly shown that the total ejected mass and mass-velocity distribution sensitively link to the wavelength and amplitude of these perturbations. While we have had success developing ejecta mass and mass-velocity models, we need to better understand the size and size-velocity distributions of the ejected mass. To support size measurements we have developed a dynamic Mie scattering diagnostic based on a CW laser that permits measurement of the forward attenuation cross-section combined with a dynamic mass-density and mass-velocity distribution, as well as a measurement of the forward scattering cross-section at 12 angles (5- 32.5 degrees) in increments of 2.5 degrees. We compare size distribution followed from Beers law with attenuation cross-section and mass measurement to the dynamic size distribution determined from scattering cross-section alone. We report results from our first quality experiments.

Terrain Mechanics and Modeling Research Program: Enhanced Vehicle Dynamics Module

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

ER D C/ G SL T R- 09 -8 Terrain Mechanics and Modeling Research Program Enhanced Vehicle Dynamics Module Daniel C. Creighton, George...public release; distribution is unlimited. Terrain Mechanics and Modeling Research Program ERDC/GSL TR-09-8 May 2009 Enhanced Vehicle Dynamics...Module Daniel C. Creighton, George B. McKinley, and Randolph A. Jones Geotechnical and Structures Laboratory U.S. Army Engineer Research and

SIMULATED HUMAN ERROR PROBABILITY AND ITS APPLICATION TO DYNAMIC HUMAN FAILURE EVENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herberger, Sarah M.; Boring, Ronald L.

Abstract Objectives: Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods typically analyze human failure events (HFEs) at the overall task level. For dynamic HRA, it is important to model human activities at the subtask level. There exists a disconnect between dynamic subtask level and static task level that presents issues when modeling dynamic scenarios. For example, the SPAR-H method is typically used to calculate the human error probability (HEP) at the task level. As demonstrated in this paper, quantification in SPAR-H does not translate to the subtask level. Methods: Two different discrete distributions were generated for each SPAR-H Performance Shaping Factor (PSF) tomore » define the frequency of PSF levels. The first distribution was a uniform, or uninformed distribution that assumed the frequency of each PSF level was equally likely. The second non-continuous distribution took the frequency of PSF level as identified from an assessment of the HERA database. These two different approaches were created to identify the resulting distribution of the HEP. The resulting HEP that appears closer to the known distribution, a log-normal centered on 1E-3, is the more desirable. Each approach then has median, average and maximum HFE calculations applied. To calculate these three values, three events, A, B and C are generated from the PSF level frequencies comprised of subtasks. The median HFE selects the median PSF level from each PSF and calculates HEP. The average HFE takes the mean PSF level, and the maximum takes the maximum PSF level. The same data set of subtask HEPs yields starkly different HEPs when aggregated to the HFE level in SPAR-H. Results: Assuming that each PSF level in each HFE is equally likely creates an unrealistic distribution of the HEP that is centered at 1. Next the observed frequency of PSF levels was applied with the resulting HEP behaving log-normally with a majority of the values under 2.5% HEP. The median, average and maximum HFE calculations did yield different answers for the HFE. The HFE maximum grossly over estimates the HFE, while the HFE distribution occurs less than HFE median, and greater than HFE average. Conclusions: Dynamic task modeling can be perused through the framework of SPAR-H. Identification of distributions associated with each PSF needs to be defined, and may change depending upon the scenario. However it is very unlikely that each PSF level is equally likely as the resulting HEP distribution is strongly centered at 100%, which is unrealistic. Other distributions may need to be identified for PSFs, to facilitate the transition to dynamic task modeling. Additionally discrete distributions need to be exchanged for continuous so that simulations for the HFE can further advance. This paper provides a method to explore dynamic subtask to task translation and provides examples of the process using the SPAR-H method.« less

Universality classes of fluctuation dynamics in hierarchical complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macêdo, A. M. S.; González, Iván R. Roa; Salazar, D. S. P.; Vasconcelos, G. L.

2017-03-01

A unified approach is proposed to describe the statistics of the short-time dynamics of multiscale complex systems. The probability density function of the relevant time series (signal) is represented as a statistical superposition of a large time-scale distribution weighted by the distribution of certain internal variables that characterize the slowly changing background. The dynamics of the background is formulated as a hierarchical stochastic model whose form is derived from simple physical constraints, which in turn restrict the dynamics to only two possible classes. The probability distributions of both the signal and the background have simple representations in terms of Meijer G functions. The two universality classes for the background dynamics manifest themselves in the signal distribution as two types of tails: power law and stretched exponential, respectively. A detailed analysis of empirical data from classical turbulence and financial markets shows excellent agreement with the theory.

Nanoscale Dynamics of Joule heating and Bubble Nucleation in a Solid-State Nanopore

PubMed Central

Levine, Edlyn V.; Burns, Michael M.; Golovchenko, Jene A.

2016-01-01

We present a mathematical model for Joule heating of an electrolytic solution in a nanopore. The model couples the electrical and thermal dynamics responsible for rapid and extreme superheating of the electrolyte within the nanopore. The model is implemented numerically with a finite element calculation, yielding a time and spatially resolved temperature distribution in the nanopore region. Temperatures near the thermodynamic limit of superheat are predicted to be attained just before the explosive nucleation of a vapor bubble is observed experimentally. Knowledge of this temperature distribution enables the evaluation of related phenomena including bubble nucleation kinetics, relaxation oscillation, and bubble dynamics. PACS numbers 47.55.dp, 47.55.db, 85.35.-p, 05.70Fh PMID:26871171

Conversion and Validation of Distribution System Model from a QSTS-Based Tool to a Real-Time Dynamic Phasor Simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chamana, Manohar; Prabakar, Kumaraguru; Palmintier, Bryan

A software process is developed to convert distribution network models from a quasi-static time-series tool (OpenDSS) to a real-time dynamic phasor simulator (ePHASORSIM). The description of this process in this paper would be helpful for researchers who intend to perform similar conversions. The converter could be utilized directly by users of real-time simulators who intend to perform software-in-the-loop or hardware-in-the-loop tests on large distribution test feeders for a range of use cases, including testing functions of advanced distribution management systems against a simulated distribution system. In the future, the developers intend to release the conversion tool as open source tomore » enable use by others.« less

Conversion and Validation of Distribution System Model from a QSTS-Based Tool to a Real-Time Dynamic Phasor Simulator: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chamana, Manohar; Prabakar, Kumaraguru; Palmintier, Bryan

A software process is developed to convert distribution network models from a quasi-static time-series tool (OpenDSS) to a real-time dynamic phasor simulator (ePHASORSIM). The description of this process in this paper would be helpful for researchers who intend to perform similar conversions. The converter could be utilized directly by users of real-time simulators who intend to perform software-in-the-loop or hardware-in-the-loop tests on large distribution test feeders for a range of use cases, including testing functions of advanced distribution management systems against a simulated distribution system. In the future, the developers intend to release the conversion tool as open source tomore » enable use by others.« less

Transition from Exponential to Power Law Income Distributions in a Chaotic Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellicer-Lostao, Carmen; Lopez-Ruiz, Ricardo

Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics offers models of markets as complex systems, that try to comprehend macro-, system-wide states of the economy from the interaction of many agents at micro-level. One of these models is the gas-like model for trading markets. This tries to predict money distributions in closed economies and quite simply, obtains the ones observed in real economies. However, it reveals technical hitches to explain the power law distribution, observed in individuals with high incomes. In this work, nonlinear dynamics is introduced in the gas-like model in an effort to overcomes these flaws. A particular chaotic dynamics is used to break the pairing symmetry of agents (i, j) ⇔ (j, i). The results demonstrate that a "chaotic gas-like model" can reproduce the Exponential and Power law distributions observed in real economies. Moreover, it controls the transition between them. This may give some insight of the micro-level causes that originate unfair distributions of money in a global society. Ultimately, the chaotic model makes obvious the inherent instability of asymmetric scenarios, where sinks of wealth appear and doom the market to extreme inequality.

Basal friction evolution and crevasse distribution during the surge of Basin 3, Austfonna ice-cap - offline coupling between a continuum ice dynamic model and a discrete element model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Yongmei; Zwinger, Thomas; Åström, Jan; Gladstone, Rupert; Schellenberger, Thomas; Altena, Bas; Moore, John

2017-04-01

The outlet glacier at Basin 3, Austfonna ice-cap entered its active surge phase in autumn 2012. We assess the evolution of the basal friction during the surge through inverse modelling of basal friction coefficients using recent velocity observation from 2012 to 2014 in a continuum ice dynamic model Elmer/ice. The obtained basal friction coefficient distributions at different time instances are further used as a boundary condition in a discrete element model (HiDEM) that is capable of computing fracturing of ice. The inverted basal friction coefficient evolution shows a gradual 'unplugging' of the stagnant frontal area and northwards and inland expansion of the fast flowing region in the southern basin. The validation between the modeled crevasses distribution and the satellite observation in August 2013 shows a good agreement in shear zones inland and at the frontal area. Crevasse distributions of the summer before and after the glacier reached its maximum velocity in January 2013 (August 2012 and August 2014, respectively) are also evaluated. Previous studies suggest the triggering and development of the surge are linked to surface melt water penetrating through ice to form an efficient basal hydrology system thereby triggering a hydro- thermodynamic feedback. This preliminary offline coupling between a continuum ice dynamic model and a discrete element model will give a hint on future model development of linking supra-glacial to sub-glacial hydrology system.

MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOXICS (MEND-TOX): PART I, HYBRID COMPARTMENTAL-SPATIAL MODELING FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

An integrated hybrid spatial-compartmental modeling approach is presented for analyzing the dynamic distribution of chemicals in the multimedia environment. Information obtained from such analysis, which includes temporal chemical concentration profiles in various media, mass ...

Communication: On the origin of the non-Arrhenius behavior in water reorientation dynamics.

PubMed

Stirnemann, Guillaume; Laage, Damien

2012-07-21

We combine molecular dynamics simulations and analytic modeling to determine the origin of the non-Arrhenius temperature dependence of liquid water's reorientation and hydrogen-bond dynamics between 235 K and 350 K. We present a quantitative model connecting hydrogen-bond exchange dynamics to local structural fluctuations, measured by the asphericity of Voronoi cells associated with each water molecule. For a fixed local structure the regular Arrhenius behavior is recovered, and the global anomalous temperature dependence is demonstrated to essentially result from a continuous shift in the unimodal structure distribution upon cooling. The non-Arrhenius behavior can thus be explained without invoking an equilibrium between distinct structures. In addition, the large width of the homogeneous structural distribution is shown to cause a growing dynamical heterogeneity and a non-exponential relaxation at low temperature.

Cluster dynamics and cluster size distributions in systems of self-propelled particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peruani, F.; Schimansky-Geier, L.; Bär, M.

2010-12-01

Systems of self-propelled particles (SPP) interacting by a velocity alignment mechanism in the presence of noise exhibit rich clustering dynamics. Often, clusters are responsible for the distribution of (local) information in these systems. Here, we investigate the properties of individual clusters in SPP systems, in particular the asymmetric spreading behavior of clusters with respect to their direction of motion. In addition, we formulate a Smoluchowski-type kinetic model to describe the evolution of the cluster size distribution (CSD). This model predicts the emergence of steady-state CSDs in SPP systems. We test our theoretical predictions in simulations of SPP with nematic interactions and find that our simple kinetic model reproduces qualitatively the transition to aggregation observed in simulations.

A quasi-molecular dynamics simulation study on the effect of particles collisions in pulsed-laser desorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xinyu-Tan; Duanming-Zhang; Shengqin-Feng; Li, Zhi-hua; Li, Guan; Li, Li; Dan, Liu

2006-05-01

The dynamics characteristic and effect of atoms and particulates ejected from the surface generated by nanosecond pulsed-laser ablation are very important. In this work, based on the consideration of the inelasticity and non-uniformity of the plasma particles thermally desorbed from a plane surface into vacuum induced by nanosecond laser ablation, the one-dimensional particles flow is studied on the basis of a quasi-molecular dynamics (QMD) simulation. It is assumed that atoms and particulates ejected from the surface of a target have a Maxwell velocity distribution corresponding to the surface temperature. Particles collisions in the ablation plume. The particles mass is continuous and satisfies fractal theory distribution. Meanwhile, the particles are inelastic. Our results show that inelasticity and non-uniformity strongly affect the dynamics behavior of the particles flow. Along with the decrease of restitution coefficient e and increase of fractional dimension D, velocity distributions of plasma particles system all deviate from the initial Gaussian distribution. The increasing of dissipation energy ΔE leads to density distribution clusterized and closed up to the center mass. Predictions of the particles action based on the proposed fractal and inelasticity model are found to be in agreement with the experimental observation. This verifies the validity of the present model for the dynamics behavior of pulsed-laser-induced particles flow.

LAMMPS framework for dynamic bonding and an application modeling DNA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svaneborg, Carsten

2012-08-01

We have extended the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) to support directional bonds and dynamic bonding. The framework supports stochastic formation of new bonds, breakage of existing bonds, and conversion between bond types. Bond formation can be controlled to limit the maximal functionality of a bead with respect to various bond types. Concomitant with the bond dynamics, angular and dihedral interactions are dynamically introduced between newly connected triplets and quartets of beads, where the interaction type is determined from the local pattern of bead and bond types. When breaking bonds, all angular and dihedral interactions involving broken bonds are removed. The framework allows chemical reactions to be modeled, and use it to simulate a simplistic, coarse-grained DNA model. The resulting DNA dynamics illustrates the power of the present framework. Catalogue identifier: AEME_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEME_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public Licence No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2 243 491 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 771 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++ Computer: Single and multiple core servers Operating system: Linux/Unix/Windows Has the code been vectorized or parallelized?: Yes. The code has been parallelized by the use of MPI directives. RAM: 1 Gb Classification: 16.11, 16.12 Nature of problem: Simulating coarse-grain models capable of chemistry e.g. DNA hybridization dynamics. Solution method: Extending LAMMPS to handle dynamic bonding and directional bonds. Unusual features: Allows bonds to be created and broken while angular and dihedral interactions are kept consistent. Additional comments: The distribution file for this program is approximately 36 Mbytes and therefore is not delivered directly when download or E-mail is requested. Instead an html file giving details of how the program can be obtained is sent. Running time: Hours to days. The examples provided in the distribution take just seconds to run.

A new spatial snow distribution in hydrological models parameterized from observed spatial variability of precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn

2016-04-01

The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters is not a well suited tool for prediction under conditions for which is has not been calibrated. Important tasks for hydrological modelling such as prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change are hence not solved satisfactory. In order to reduce the number of calibration parameters in hydrological models we have introduced a new model which uses a dynamic gamma distribution as the spatial frequency distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameters are estimated from observed spatial variability of precipitation and the magnitude of accumulation and melting events and are hence not subject to calibration. The relationship between spatial mean and variance of precipitation is found to follow a pattern where decreasing temporal correlation with increasing accumulation or duration of the event leads to a levelling off or even a decrease of the spatial variance. The new model for snow distribution is implemented in the, already parameter parsimonious, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) hydrological model and was tested for 71 Norwegian catchments. We compared the new snow distribution model with the current operational snow distribution model where a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution. Results show that the precision of runoff simulations is equal, but that the new snow distribution model better simulates snow covered area (SCA) when compared with MODIS satellite derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" is prevented and hence spurious trends in SWE.

Modeling of Antarctic Sea Ice in a General Circulation Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xingren; Simmonds, Ian; Budd, W. F.

1997-04-01

A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is developed and coupled with the Melbourne University general circulation model to simulate the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice distribution. The model is efficient, rapid to compute, and useful for a range of climate studies. The thermodynamic part of the sea ice model is similar to that developed by Parkinson and Washington, the dynamics contain a simplified ice rheology that resists compression. The thermodynamics is based on energy conservation at the top surface of the ice/snow, the ice/water interface, and the open water area to determine the ice formation, accretion, and ablation. A lead parameterization is introduced with an effective partitioning scheme for freezing between and under the ice floes. The dynamic calculation determines the motion of ice, which is forced with the atmospheric wind, taking account of ice resistance and rafting. The simulated sea ice distribution compares reasonably well with observations. The seasonal cycle of ice extent is well simulated in phase as well as in magnitude. Simulated sea ice thickness and concentration are also in good agreement with observations over most regions and serve to indicate the importance of advection and ocean drift in the determination of the sea ice distribution.

Internal kinematics and dynamics of galaxies; Proceedings of the Symposium, Universitede Franche-Comte, Besancon, France, August 9-13, 1982

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athanassoula, E.

Various aspects of the internal kinematics and dynamics of galaxies are considered. The kinematics of the gas and the underlying mass distribution are discussed, including the systematics of H II rotation curves, H I velocity fields and rotation curves, the distribution of molecular clouds in spiral galaxies, gas at large radii, the implications for galactic mass models of vertical motion and the thickness of H I disks, and mass distribution and dark halos. The theory of spiral structure is addressed, along with conflicts and directions in spiral structure studies. Theories of warps are covered. Barred galaxies are treated, including their morphology, stellar kinematics, and dynamics, the stability of their disks, theoretical studies of their gas flows, and the formation of rings and lenses. Spheroidal systems are considered, including dynamics of early type galaxies, models of ellipticals and bulges, and interstellar matter in elliptical galaxies. Simulations and observational evidence for mergers are addressed, and the formation of galaxies and dynamics of globular cluster systems are examined. For individual items see A83-49202 to A83-49267

Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

2016-09-01

We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

Modeling the human body/seat system in a vibration environment.

PubMed

Rosen, Jacob; Arcan, Mircea

2003-04-01

The vibration environment is a common man-made artificial surrounding with which humans have a limited tolerance to cope due to their body dynamics. This research studied the dynamic characteristics of a seated human body/seat system in a vibration environment. The main result is a multi degrees of freedom lumped parameter model that synthesizes two basic dynamics: (i) global human dynamics, the apparent mass phenomenon, including a systematic set of the model parameters for simulating various conditions like body posture, backrest, footrest, muscle tension, and vibration directions, and (ii) the local human dynamics, represented by the human pelvis/vibrating seat contact, using a cushioning interface. The model and its selected parameters successfully described the main effects of the apparent mass phenomenon compared to experimental data documented in the literature. The model provided an analytical tool for human body dynamics research. It also enabled a primary tool for seat and cushioning design. The model was further used to develop design guidelines for a composite cushion using the principle of quasi-uniform body/seat contact force distribution. In terms of evenly distributing the contact forces, the best result for the different materials and cushion geometries simulated in the current study was achieved using a two layer shaped geometry cushion built from three materials. Combining the geometry and the mechanical characteristics of a structure under large deformation into a lumped parameter model enables successful analysis of the human/seat interface system and provides practical results for body protection in dynamic environment.

How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify range dynamics and extinction risk

EPA Science Inventory

Range dynamics models now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be studied using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behavior of dispersin...

Model of white oak flower survival and maturation

Treesearch

David R. Larsen; Robert A. Cecich

1997-01-01

A stochastic model of oak flower dynamics is presented that integrates a number of factors which appear to affect the oak pistillate flower development process. The factors are modeled such that the distribution of the predicted flower populations could have come from the same distribution as the observed flower populations. Factors included in the model are; the range...

Advances in the spatially distributed ages-w model: parallel computation, java connection framework (JCF) integration, and streamflow/nitrogen dynamics assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) is a modular, Java-based spatially distributed model which implements hydrologic and water quality (H/WQ) simulation components under the Java Connection Framework (JCF) and the Object Modeling System (OMS) environmental modeling framework. AgES-W is implicitly scala...

FATE-HD: A spatially and temporally explicit integrated model for predicting vegetation structure and diversity at regional scale

PubMed Central

Isabelle, Boulangeat; Damien, Georges; Wilfried, Thuiller

2014-01-01

During the last decade, despite strenuous efforts to develop new models and compare different approaches, few conclusions have been drawn on their ability to provide robust biodiversity projections in an environmental change context. The recurring suggestions are that models should explicitly (i) include spatiotemporal dynamics; (ii) consider multiple species in interactions; and (iii) account for the processes shaping biodiversity distribution. This paper presents a biodiversity model (FATE-HD) that meets this challenge at regional scale by combining phenomenological and process-based approaches and using well-defined plant functional groups. FATE-HD has been tested and validated in a French National Park, demonstrating its ability to simulate vegetation dynamics, structure and diversity in response to disturbances and climate change. The analysis demonstrated the importance of considering biotic interactions, spatio-temporal dynamics, and disturbances in addition to abiotic drivers to simulate vegetation dynamics. The distribution of pioneer trees was particularly improved, as were all undergrowth functional groups. PMID:24214499

A comparison of dynamic and static economic models of uneven-aged stand management

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight

1985-01-01

Numerical techniques have been used to compute the discrete-time sequence of residual diameter distributions that maximize the present net worth (PNW) of harvestable volume from an uneven-aged stand. Results contradicted optimal steady-state diameter distributions determined with static analysis. In this paper, optimality conditions for solutions to dynamic and static...

Development of a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of municipal watermain networks.

PubMed

Rehan, R; Knight, M A; Unger, A J A; Haas, C T

2013-12-15

This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of urban water distribution networks. The developed causal loop diagrams are a novel contribution in that it illustrates the unique characteristics and feedback loops for financially self-sustaining water distribution networks. The system dynamics model is a mathematical realization of the developed interactions among system variables over time and is comprised of three sectors namely watermains network, consumer, and finance. This is the first known development of a water distribution network system dynamics model. The watermains network sector accounts for the unique characteristics of watermain pipes such as service life, deterioration progression, pipe breaks, and water leakage. The finance sector allows for cash reserving by the utility in addition to the pay-as-you-go and borrowing strategies. The consumer sector includes controls to model water fee growth as a function of service performance and a household's financial burden due to water fees. A series of policy levers are provided that allow the impact of various financing strategies to be evaluated in terms of financial sustainability and household affordability. The model also allows for examination of the impact of different management strategies on the water fee in terms of consistency and stability over time. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the developed system dynamics water model can be used by water utilities to achieve a variety of utility short and long-term objectives and to establish realistic and defensible water utility policies. It also discusses how the model can be used by regulatory bodies, government agencies, the financial industry, and researchers. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continuous distribution of emission states from single CdSe/ZnS quantum dots.

PubMed

Zhang, Kai; Chang, Hauyee; Fu, Aihua; Alivisatos, A Paul; Yang, Haw

2006-04-01

The photoluminescence dynamics of colloidal CdSe/ZnS/streptavidin quantum dots were studied using time-resolved single-molecule spectroscopy. Statistical tests of the photon-counting data suggested that the simple "on/off" discrete state model is inconsistent with experimental results. Instead, a continuous emission state distribution model was found to be more appropriate. Autocorrelation analysis of lifetime and intensity fluctuations showed a nonlinear correlation between them. These results were consistent with the model that charged quantum dots were also emissive, and that time-dependent charge migration gave rise to the observed photoluminescence dynamics.

Entropy of dynamical social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Kun; Karsai, Marton; Bianconi, Ginestra

2012-02-01

Dynamical social networks are evolving rapidly and are highly adaptive. Characterizing the information encoded in social networks is essential to gain insight into the structure, evolution, adaptability and dynamics. Recently entropy measures have been used to quantify the information in email correspondence, static networks and mobility patterns. Nevertheless, we still lack methods to quantify the information encoded in time-varying dynamical social networks. In this talk we present a model to quantify the entropy of dynamical social networks and use this model to analyze the data of phone-call communication. We show evidence that the entropy of the phone-call interaction network changes according to circadian rhythms. Moreover we show that social networks are extremely adaptive and are modified by the use of technologies such as mobile phone communication. Indeed the statistics of duration of phone-call is described by a Weibull distribution and is significantly different from the distribution of duration of face-to-face interactions in a conference. Finally we investigate how much the entropy of dynamical social networks changes in realistic models of phone-call or face-to face interactions characterizing in this way different type human social behavior.

Surrogate Based Uni/Multi-Objective Optimization and Distribution Estimation Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, W.; Duan, Q.; Huo, X.

2017-12-01

Parameter calibration has been demonstrated as an effective way to improve the performance of dynamic models, such as hydrological models, land surface models, weather and climate models etc. Traditional optimization algorithms usually cost a huge number of model evaluations, making dynamic model calibration very difficult, or even computationally prohibitive. With the help of a serious of recently developed adaptive surrogate-modelling based optimization methods: uni-objective optimization method ASMO, multi-objective optimization method MO-ASMO, and probability distribution estimation method ASMO-PODE, the number of model evaluations can be significantly reduced to several hundreds, making it possible to calibrate very expensive dynamic models, such as regional high resolution land surface models, weather forecast models such as WRF, and intermediate complexity earth system models such as LOVECLIM. This presentation provides a brief introduction to the common framework of adaptive surrogate-based optimization algorithms of ASMO, MO-ASMO and ASMO-PODE, a case study of Common Land Model (CoLM) calibration in Heihe river basin in Northwest China, and an outlook of the potential applications of the surrogate-based optimization methods.

Dynamics of a stochastic cell-to-cell HIV-1 model with distributed delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chunyan; Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

2018-02-01

In this paper, we consider a stochastic cell-to-cell HIV-1 model with distributed delay. Firstly, we show that there is a global positive solution of this model before exploring its long-time behavior. Then sufficient conditions for extinction of the disease are established. Moreover, we obtain sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution of the model by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function. The stationary distribution implies that the disease is persistent in the mean. Finally, we provide some numerical examples to illustrate theoretical results.

Modeling and simulation of dynamic ant colony's labor division for task allocation of UAV swarm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Husheng; Li, Hao; Xiao, Renbin; Liu, Jie

2018-02-01

The problem of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) task allocation not only has the intrinsic attribute of complexity, such as highly nonlinear, dynamic, highly adversarial and multi-modal, but also has a better practicability in various multi-agent systems, which makes it more and more attractive recently. In this paper, based on the classic fixed response threshold model (FRTM), under the idea of "problem centered + evolutionary solution" and by a bottom-up way, the new dynamic environmental stimulus, response threshold and transition probability are designed, and a dynamic ant colony's labor division (DACLD) model is proposed. DACLD allows a swarm of agents with a relatively low-level of intelligence to perform complex tasks, and has the characteristic of distributed framework, multi-tasks with execution order, multi-state, adaptive response threshold and multi-individual response. With the proposed model, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the distributed task allocation scheme in two situations of UAV swarm combat (dynamic task allocation with a certain number of enemy targets and task re-allocation due to unexpected threats). Results show that our model can get both the heterogeneous UAVs' real-time positions and states at the same time, and has high degree of self-organization, flexibility and real-time response to dynamic environments.

Lifetime of Major Histocompatibility Complex Class-I Membrane Clusters Is Controlled by the Actin Cytoskeleton

PubMed Central

Lavi, Yael; Gov, Nir; Edidin, Michael; Gheber, Levi A.

2012-01-01

Lateral heterogeneity of cell membranes has been demonstrated in numerous studies showing anomalous diffusion of membrane proteins; it has been explained by models and experiments suggesting dynamic barriers to free diffusion, that temporarily confine membrane proteins into microscopic patches. This picture, however, comes short of explaining a steady-state patchy distribution of proteins, in face of the transient opening of the barriers. In our previous work we directly imaged persistent clusters of MHC-I, a type I transmembrane protein, and proposed a model of a dynamic equilibrium between proteins newly delivered to the cell surface by vesicle traffic, temporary confinement by dynamic barriers to lateral diffusion, and dispersion of the clusters by diffusion over the dynamic barriers. Our model predicted that the clusters are dynamic, appearing when an exocytic vesicle fuses with the plasma membrane and dispersing with a typical lifetime that depends on lateral diffusion and the dynamics of barriers. In a subsequent work, we showed this to be the case. Here we test another prediction of the model, and show that changing the stability of actin barriers to lateral diffusion changes cluster lifetimes. We also develop a model for the distribution of cluster lifetimes, consistent with the function of barriers to lateral diffusion in maintaining MHC-I clusters. PMID:22500754

The scaling of geographic ranges: implications for species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Ginsberg, Joshua R.

2016-01-01

There is a need for timely science to inform policy and management decisions; however, we must also strive to provide predictions that best reflect our understanding of ecological systems. Species distributions evolve through time and reflect responses to environmental conditions that are mediated through individual and population processes. Species distribution models that reflect this understanding, and explicitly model dynamics, are likely to give more accurate predictions.

On the origin of bursts and heavy tails in animal dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, A. M.

2011-01-01

Over recent years there has been an accumulation of evidence that many animal behaviours are characterised by common scale-invariant patterns of switching between two contrasting activities over a period of time. This is evidenced in mammalian wake-sleep patterns, in the intermittent stop-start locomotion of Drosophila fruit flies, and in the Lévy walk movement patterns of a diverse range of animals in which straight-line movements are punctuated by occasional turns. Here it is shown that these dynamics can be modelled by a stochastic variant of Barabási’s model [A.-L. Barabási, The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics, Nature 435 (2005) 207-211] for bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics. The new model captures a tension between two competing and conflicting activities. The durations of one type of activity are distributed according to an inverse-square power-law, mirroring the ubiquity of inverse-square power-law scaling seen in empirical data. The durations of the second type of activity follow exponential distributions with characteristic timescales that depend on species and metabolic rates. This again is a common feature of animal behaviour. Bursty human dynamics, on the other hand, are characterised by power-law distributions with scaling exponents close to -1 and -3/2.

A Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model of the Global Oceans: Seasonal Distributions of Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability. and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms. chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (greater than 1000 km) model chlorophyll results are in overall agreement with CZCS pigments in many global regions. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are generally in conformance although occasional departures are apparent. Model nitrate distributions agree with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent many aspects of the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographicallymore » scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.« less

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

PubMed

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

a Weighted Local-World Evolving Network Model Based on the Edge Weights Preferential Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ping; Zhao, Qingzhen; Wang, Haitang

2013-05-01

In this paper, we use the edge weights preferential attachment mechanism to build a new local-world evolutionary model for weighted networks. It is different from previous papers that the local-world of our model consists of edges instead of nodes. Each time step, we connect a new node to two existing nodes in the local-world through the edge weights preferential selection. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that the scale of the local-world affect on the weight distribution, the strength distribution and the degree distribution. We give the simulations about the clustering coefficient and the dynamics of infectious diseases spreading. The weight dynamics of our network model can portray the structure of realistic networks such as neural network of the nematode C. elegans and Online Social Network.

A stochastic evolutionary model generating a mixture of exponential distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenner, Trevor; Levene, Mark; Loizou, George

2016-02-01

Recent interest in human dynamics has stimulated the investigation of the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts, such as mobile phone networks and social media. In this paper, we extend the stochastic urn-based model proposed in [T. Fenner, M. Levene, G. Loizou, J. Stat. Mech. 2015, P08015 (2015)] so that it can generate mixture models, in particular, a mixture of exponential distributions. The model is designed to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials, reliability analysis in engineering, and more recently in the analysis of large data sets recording human dynamics. The mixture modelling approach, which is relatively simple and well understood, is very effective in capturing heterogeneity in data. We provide empirical evidence for the validity of the model, using a data set of popular search engine queries collected over a period of 114 months. We show that the survival function of these queries is closely matched by the exponential mixture solution for our model.

Spreading Activation in an Attractor Network with Latching Dynamics: Automatic Semantic Priming Revisited

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lerner, Itamar; Bentin, Shlomo; Shriki, Oren

2012-01-01

Localist models of spreading activation (SA) and models assuming distributed representations offer very different takes on semantic priming, a widely investigated paradigm in word recognition and semantic memory research. In this study, we implemented SA in an attractor neural network model with distributed representations and created a unified…

A model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent parameterized from the spatial variability of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn H.

2016-09-01

Snow is an important and complicated element in hydrological modelling. The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters, also in snow sub-models, is not a well-suited tool for predicting conditions for which it has not been calibrated. Such conditions include prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change. In this study, a new model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE), parameterized solely from observed spatial variability of precipitation, is compared with the current snow distribution model used in the operational flood forecasting models in Norway. The former model uses a dynamic gamma distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Gamma, (SD_G), whereas the latter model has a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation, which parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Log-Normal (SD_LN). The two models are implemented in the parameter parsimonious rainfall-runoff model Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD), and their capability for predicting runoff, SWE and snow-covered area (SCA) is tested and compared for 71 Norwegian catchments. The calibration period is 1985-2000 and validation period is 2000-2014. Results show that SDG better simulates SCA when compared with MODIS satellite-derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" and giving spurious positive trends in SWE, typical for SD_LN, is prevented. The precision of runoff simulations using SDG is slightly inferior, with a reduction in Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion of 0.01, but it is shown that the high precision in runoff prediction using SD_LN is accompanied with erroneous simulations of SWE.

Integrated Joule switches for the control of current dynamics in parallel superconducting strips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casaburi, A.; Heath, R. M.; Cristiano, R.; Ejrnaes, M.; Zen, N.; Ohkubo, M.; Hadfield, R. H.

2018-06-01

Understanding and harnessing the physics of the dynamic current distribution in parallel superconducting strips holds the key to creating next generation sensors for single molecule and single photon detection. Non-uniformity in the current distribution in parallel superconducting strips leads to low detection efficiency and unstable operation, preventing the scale up to large area sensors. Recent studies indicate that non-uniform current distributions occurring in parallel strips can be understood and modeled in the framework of the generalized London model. Here we build on this important physical insight, investigating an innovative design with integrated superconducting-to-resistive Joule switches to break the superconducting loops between the strips and thus control the current dynamics. Employing precision low temperature nano-optical techniques, we map the uniformity of the current distribution before- and after the resistive strip switching event, confirming the effectiveness of our design. These results provide important insights for the development of next generation large area superconducting strip-based sensors.

Matter and charge distributions of 6He and 5,6,7,9Li within the dynamic-correlation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaselli, M.; Hjorth-Jensen, M.; Fritzsche, S.; Egelhof, P.; Neumaier, S. R.; Mutterer, M.; Kühl, T.; Dax, A.; Wang, H.

2000-12-01

The matter and the charge distributions of the 6He and 5,6,7,9Li isotopes are investigated within the dynamic-correlation model (DCM) which describes the ground states of light nuclei in terms of microscopic correlated clusters: the valence particles and the intrinsic vacuum states. The amplitudes of these mixed-mode wave functions are calculated in the framework of nonperturbative solutions of the equation of motion method (EOMM). The matter and charge mean square radii are in good agreement with experimental results. The calculated matter distribution of the 6He nucleus is characterized by a halo structure less pronounced than that calculated by the three cluster models. The charge distribution of 6Li reproduces well the electron scattering data. Good agreement with experimental data has been also achieved for the proton scattering cross sections of p-6He at an energy of 0.7 GeV/nucleon.

Species abundance distribution and population dynamics in a two-community model of neutral ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallade, M.; Houchmandzadeh, B.

2006-11-01

Explicit formulas for the steady-state distribution of species in two interconnected communities of arbitrary sizes are derived in the framework of Hubbell’s neutral model of biodiversity. Migrations of seeds from both communities as well as mutations in both of them are taken into account. These results generalize those previously obtained for the “island-continent” model and they allow an analysis of the influence of the ratio of the sizes of the two communities on the dominance/diversity equilibrium. Exact expressions for species abundance distributions are deduced from a master equation for the joint probability distribution of species in the two communities. Moreover, an approximate self-consistent solution is derived. It corresponds to a generalization of previous results and it proves to be accurate over a broad range of parameters. The dynamical correlations between the abundances of a species in both communities are also discussed.

On the probabilistic structure of water age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-05-01

The age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it can be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. We illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.

Grain size distribution in sheared polycrystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Tanmoy; Biswas, Santidan; Chaudhuri, Pinaki; Sain, Anirban

2017-12-01

Plastic deformation in solids induced by external stresses is of both fundamental and practical interest. Using both phase field crystal modeling and molecular dynamics simulations, we study the shear response of monocomponent polycrystalline solids. We subject mesocale polycrystalline samples to constant strain rates in a planar Couette flow geometry for studying its plastic flow, in particular its grain deformation dynamics. As opposed to equilibrium solids where grain dynamics is mainly driven by thermal diffusion, external stress/strain induce a much higher level of grain deformation activity in the form of grain rotation, coalescence, and breakage, mediated by dislocations. Despite this, the grain size distribution of this driven system shows only a weak power-law correction to its equilibrium log-normal behavior. We interpret the grain reorganization dynamics using a stochastic model.

Tree cover bimodality in savannas and forests emerging from the switching between two fire dynamics.

PubMed

De Michele, Carlo; Accatino, Francesco

2014-01-01

Moist savannas and tropical forests share the same climatic conditions and occur side by side. Experimental evidences show that the tree cover of these ecosystems exhibits a bimodal frequency distribution. This is considered as a proof of savanna-forest bistability, predicted by dynamic vegetation models based on non-linear differential equations. Here, we propose a change of perspective about the bimodality of tree cover distribution. We show, using a simple matrix model of tree dynamics, how the bimodality of tree cover can emerge from the switching between two linear dynamics of trees, one in presence and one in absence of fire, with a feedback between fire and trees. As consequence, we find that the transitions between moist savannas and tropical forests, if sharp, are not necessarily catastrophic.

Equilibrium stochastic dynamics of a Brownian particle in inhomogeneous space: Derivation of an alternative model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyay, A.

2018-03-01

An alternative equilibrium stochastic dynamics for a Brownian particle in inhomogeneous space is derived. Such a dynamics can model the motion of a complex molecule in its conformation space when in equilibrium with a uniform heat bath. The derivation is done by a simple generalization of the formulation due to Zwanzig for a Brownian particle in homogeneous heat bath. We show that, if the system couples to different number of bath degrees of freedom at different conformations then the alternative model gets derived. We discuss results of an experiment by Faucheux and Libchaber which probably has indicated possible limitation of the Boltzmann distribution as equilibrium distribution of a Brownian particle in inhomogeneous space and propose experimental verification of the present theory using similar methods.

Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

2015-02-01

We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

Linkage of a Physically Based Distributed Watershed Model and a Dynamic Plant Growth Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

i.e., Universal Soil Loss Equation ( USLE ) factors, K, C, and P). The K, C, and P factors are empiri- cal coefficients with the same conceptual...with general ecosystem models designed to make long-term projections of ecosystem dynamics. This development effort investigated the linkage of soil ...20 EDYS soil module

Dynamics of entanglement and uncertainty relation in coupled harmonic oscillator system: exact results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, DaeKil

2018-06-01

The dynamics of entanglement and uncertainty relation is explored by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation for coupled harmonic oscillator system analytically when the angular frequencies and coupling constant are arbitrarily time dependent. We derive the spectral and Schmidt decompositions for vacuum solution. Using the decompositions, we derive the analytical expressions for von Neumann and Rényi entropies. Making use of Wigner distribution function defined in phase space, we derive the time dependence of position-momentum uncertainty relations. To show the dynamics of entanglement and uncertainty relation graphically, we introduce two toy models and one realistic quenched model. While the dynamics can be conjectured by simple consideration in the toy models, the dynamics in the realistic quenched model is somewhat different from that in the toy models. In particular, the dynamics of entanglement exhibits similar pattern to dynamics of uncertainty parameter in the realistic quenched model.

Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-29

AFRL-AFOSR-JP-TR-2018-0027 Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference Kwang-Cheng Chen NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY Final Report 03/29/2018 DISTRIBUTION A...DATES COVERED (From - To)      14 May 2014 to 13 May 2017 4.  TITLE AND SUBTITLE Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference 5a.  CONTRACT NUMBER 5b.  GRANT...behavior in human society, to set up the foundation of future possible inference and even control of social collective behavior. Two primary

The distribution of persistent organic pollutants in a trophically complex Antarctic ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Michael L.; Bengtson Nash, Susan M.; Hawker, Darryl W.; Shaw, Emily C.; Cropp, Roger A.

2017-06-01

Despite Antarctica's isolation from human population centres, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are transported there via long range atmospheric transport and subsequently cold-trapped. The challenging nature of working in the Antarctic environment greatly limits our ability to monitor POP concentrations and understand the processes that govern the distribution of POPs in Antarctic ecosystems. Here we couple a dynamic, trophically complex biological model with a fugacity model to investigate the distribution of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in a near-shore Antarctic ecosystem. Using this model we examine the steady-state, and annual cycle of HCB concentration in the atmosphere, ocean, sediment, detritus, and 21 classes of biota that span from primary producers to apex predators. The scope and trophic resolution of our model allows us to examine POP pathways through the ecosystem. In our model the main pathway of HCB to upper trophic species is via pelagic communities, with relatively little via benthic communities. Using a dynamic ecosystem model also allows us to examine the seasonal and potential climate change induced changes in POP distribution. We show that there is a large annual cycle in concentration in the planktonic communities, which may have implications for biomagnification factors calculated from observations. We also examine the direct effects of increasing temperature on the redistribution of HCB in a changing climate and find that it is likely minor compared to other indirect effects, such as changes in atmospheric circulation, sea ice dynamics, and changes to the ecosystem itself.

Ethanol distribution, dispensing, and use: analysis of a portion of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain using system dynamics.

PubMed

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain-represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner's decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer's choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles.

Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics

PubMed Central

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain–represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner’s decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer’s choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles. PMID:22606230

Using a pseudo-dynamic source inversion approach to improve earthquake source imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Song, S. G.; Dalguer, L. A.; Clinton, J. F.

2014-12-01

Imaging a high-resolution spatio-temporal slip distribution of an earthquake rupture is a core research goal in seismology. In general we expect to obtain a higher quality source image by improving the observational input data (e.g. using more higher quality near-source stations). However, recent studies show that increasing the surface station density alone does not significantly improve source inversion results (Custodio et al. 2005; Zhang et al. 2014). We introduce correlation structures between the kinematic source parameters: slip, rupture velocity, and peak slip velocity (Song et al. 2009; Song and Dalguer 2013) in the non-linear source inversion. The correlation structures are physical constraints derived from rupture dynamics that effectively regularize the model space and may improve source imaging. We name this approach pseudo-dynamic source inversion. We investigate the effectiveness of this pseudo-dynamic source inversion method by inverting low frequency velocity waveforms from a synthetic dynamic rupture model of a buried vertical strike-slip event (Mw 6.5) in a homogeneous half space. In the inversion, we use a genetic algorithm in a Bayesian framework (Moneli et al. 2008), and a dynamically consistent regularized Yoffe function (Tinti, et al. 2005) was used for a single-window slip velocity function. We search for local rupture velocity directly in the inversion, and calculate the rupture time using a ray-tracing technique. We implement both auto- and cross-correlation of slip, rupture velocity, and peak slip velocity in the prior distribution. Our results suggest that kinematic source model estimates capture the major features of the target dynamic model. The estimated rupture velocity closely matches the target distribution from the dynamic rupture model, and the derived rupture time is smoother than the one we searched directly. By implementing both auto- and cross-correlation of kinematic source parameters, in comparison to traditional smoothing constraints, we are in effect regularizing the model space in a more physics-based manner without loosing resolution of the source image. Further investigation is needed to tune the related parameters of pseudo-dynamic source inversion and relative weighting between the prior and the likelihood function in the Bayesian inversion.

Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

PubMed Central

Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

2010-01-01

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

Dynamic imaging in electrical impedance tomography of the human chest with online transition matrix identification.

PubMed

Moura, Fernando Silva; Aya, Julio Cesar Ceballos; Fleury, Agenor Toledo; Amato, Marcelo Britto Passos; Lima, Raul Gonzalez

2010-02-01

One of the electrical impedance tomography objectives is to estimate the electrical resistivity distribution in a domain based only on electrical potential measurements at its boundary generated by an imposed electrical current distribution into the boundary. One of the methods used in dynamic estimation is the Kalman filter. In biomedical applications, the random walk model is frequently used as evolution model and, under this conditions, poor tracking ability of the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is achieved. An analytically developed evolution model is not feasible at this moment. The paper investigates the identification of the evolution model in parallel to the EKF and updating the evolution model with certain periodicity. The evolution model transition matrix is identified using the history of the estimated resistivity distribution obtained by a sensitivity matrix based algorithm and a Newton-Raphson algorithm. To numerically identify the linear evolution model, the Ibrahim time-domain method is used. The investigation is performed by numerical simulations of a domain with time-varying resistivity and by experimental data collected from the boundary of a human chest during normal breathing. The obtained dynamic resistivity values lie within the expected values for the tissues of a human chest. The EKF results suggest that the tracking ability is significantly improved with this approach.

Model for macroevolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Kessler, David A; Ricklefs, Robert E

2013-07-02

The highly skewed distribution of species among genera, although challenging to macroevolutionists, provides an opportunity to understand the dynamics of diversification, including species formation, extinction, and morphological evolution. Early models were based on either the work by Yule [Yule GU (1925) Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 213:21-87], which neglects extinction, or a simple birth-death (speciation-extinction) process. Here, we extend the more recent development of a generic, neutral speciation-extinction (of species)-origination (of genera; SEO) model for macroevolutionary dynamics of taxon diversification. Simulations show that deviations from the homogeneity assumptions in the model can be detected in species-per-genus distributions. The SEO model fits observed species-per-genus distributions well for class-to-kingdom-sized taxonomic groups. The model's predictions for the appearance times (the time of the first existing species) of the taxonomic groups also approximately match estimates based on molecular inference and fossil records. Unlike estimates based on analyses of phylogenetic reconstruction, fitted extinction rates for large clades are close to speciation rates, consistent with high rates of species turnover and the relatively slow change in diversity observed in the fossil record. Finally, the SEO model generally supports the consistency of generic boundaries based on morphological differences between species and provides a comparator for rates of lineage splitting and morphological evolution.

Empirical phylogenies and species abundance distributions are consistent with preequilibrium dynamics of neutral community models with gene flow.

PubMed

Bonnet-Lebrun, Anne-Sophie; Manica, Andrea; Eriksson, Anders; Rodrigues, Ana S L

2017-05-01

Community characteristics reflect past ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to obtain realistically shaped modeled communities-that is with phylogenetic trees and species abundance distributions shaped similarly to typical empirical bird and mammal communities-from neutral community models. To test the effect of gene flow, we contrasted two spatially explicit individual-based neutral models: one with protracted speciation, delayed by gene flow, and one with point mutation speciation, unaffected by gene flow. The former produced more realistic communities (shape of phylogenetic tree and species-abundance distribution), consistent with gene flow being a key process in macro-evolutionary dynamics. Earlier models struggled to capture the empirically observed branching tempo in phylogenetic trees, as measured by the gamma statistic. We show that the low gamma values typical of empirical trees can be obtained in models with protracted speciation, in preequilibrium communities developing from an initially abundant and widespread species. This was even more so in communities sampled incompletely, particularly if the unknown species are the youngest. Overall, our results demonstrate that the characteristics of empirical communities that we have studied can, to a large extent, be explained through a purely neutral model under preequilibrium conditions. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Electrical Power Distribution and Control Modeling and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Johnny S.; Liffring, Mark; Mehdi, Ishaque S.

2001-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of Electrical Power Distribution and Control (EPD&C) Modeling and how modeling can support analysis. The presentation discusses using the EASY5 model to simulate and analyze the Space Shuttle Electric Auxiliary Power Unit. Diagrams of the model schematics are included, as well as graphs of the battery cell impedance, hydraulic load dynamics, and EPD&C response to hydraulic load variations.

Dynamic phase coexistence in glass-forming liquids.

PubMed

Pastore, Raffaele; Coniglio, Antonio; Ciamarra, Massimo Pica

2015-07-09

One of the most controversial hypotheses for explaining the heterogeneous dynamics of glasses postulates the temporary coexistence of two phases characterized by a high and by a low diffusivity. In this scenario, two phases with different diffusivities coexist for a time of the order of the relaxation time and mix afterwards. Unfortunately, it is difficult to measure the single-particle diffusivities to test this hypothesis. Indeed, although the non-Gaussian shape of the van-Hove distribution suggests the transient existence of a diffusivity distribution, it is not possible to infer from this quantity whether two or more dynamical phases coexist. Here we provide the first direct observation of the dynamical coexistence of two phases with different diffusivities, by showing that in the deeply supercooled regime the distribution of the single-particle diffusivities acquires a transient bimodal shape. We relate this distribution to the heterogeneity of the dynamics and to the breakdown of the Stokes-Einstein relation, and we show that the coexistence of two dynamical phases occurs up to a timescale growing faster than the relaxation time on cooling, for some of the considered models. Our work offers a basis for rationalizing the dynamics of supercooled liquids and for relating their structural and dynamical properties.

A three-dimensional model simulation of atmospheric nitrous oxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Blackshear, W. T.; Grose, W. L.; Eckman, R. S.; Pierce, R. B.; Fairlie, T. D. A.

1992-01-01

The NASA Langley 3D GCM chemical transport model is used to investigate the distribution of atmospheric N2O up to 60 km altitude. The transport characteristics of the model is evaluated without the complications of a detailed chemical formulation for all of the relevant stratospheric minor constituents. Interpretation of the yearly average zonal mean N2O distribution in terms of transport by the yearly averaged meridional circulation and stratospheric photochemical loss indicates large regions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere where dynamical mixing apparently plays a large role in maintaining the N2O distribution. In these regions, slopes of the N2O mixing ratio isopleths are maintained by competition between advection by the meridional circulation acting to steepen and dynamical mixing acting to flatten the slopes.

Continuous-Time Finance and the Waiting Time Distribution: Multiple Characteristic Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fa, Kwok Sau

2012-09-01

In this paper, we model the tick-by-tick dynamics of markets by using the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) model. We employ a sum of products of power law and stretched exponential functions for the waiting time probability distribution function; this function can fit well the waiting time distribution for BUND futures traded at LIFFE in 1997.

LASER APPLICATIONS AND OTHER TOPICS IN QUANTUM ELECTRONICS: Dynamics of splashing of molten metals during irradiation with single CO2 laser pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arutyunyan, R. V.; Baranov, V. Yu; Bol'shov, Leonid A.; Dolgov, V. A.; Malyuta, D. D.; Mezhevov, V. S.; Semak, V. V.

1988-03-01

An experimental investigation was made of the dynamics of the loss of the melt as a result of interaction with single-mode CO2 laser radiation pulses of 5-35 μs duration. The dynamics of splashing of the melt during irradiation with short pulses characterized by a Gaussian intensity distribution differed from that predicted by models in which the distribution of the vapor pressure was assumed to be radially homogeneous.

Mass segregation phenomena using the Hamiltonian Mean Field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiner, J. R.; Zolacir, T. O.

2018-02-01

Mass segregation problem is thought to be entangled with the dynamical evolution of young stellar clusters (Olczak, 2011 [1]). This is a common sense in the astrophysical community. In this work, the Hamiltonian Mean Field (HMF) model with different masses is studied. A mass segregation phenomenon (MSP) arises from this study as a dynamical feature. The MSP in the HMF model is a consequence of the Landau damping (LD) and it appears in systems that the interactions belongs to a long range regime. Actually HMF is a toy model known to show up the main characteristics of astrophysical systems due to the mean field character of the potential and for different masses, as stellar and galaxies clusters, also exhibits MSP. It is in this sense that computational simulations focusing in what happens over the mass distribution in the phase space are performed for this system. What happens through the violent relaxation period and what stands for the quasi-stationary states (QSS) of this dynamics is analyzed. The results obtained support the fact that MSP is observed already in the violent relaxation time and is maintained during the QSS. Some structures in the mass distribution function are observed. As a result of this study the mass distribution is determined by the system dynamics and is independent of the dimensionality of the system. MSP occurs in a one dimensional system as a result of the long range forces that acts in the system. In this approach MSP emerges as a dynamical feature. We also show that for HMF with different masses, the dynamical time scale is N.

Linking multi-temporal satellite imagery to coastal wetland dynamics and bird distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; King, Sammy L.

2014-01-01

Ecosystems are characterized by dynamic ecological processes, such as flooding and fires, but spatial models are often limited to a single measurement in time. The characterization of direct, fine-scale processes affecting animals is potentially valuable for management applications, but these are difficult to quantify over broad extents. Direct predictors are also expected to improve transferability of models beyond the area of study. Here, we investigated the ability of non-static and multi-temporal habitat characteristics to predict marsh bird distributions, while testing model generality and transferability between two coastal habitats. Distribution models were developed for king rail (Rallus elegans), common gallinule (Gallinula galeata), least bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), and purple gallinule (Porphyrio martinica) in fresh and intermediate marsh types in the northern Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas, USA. For model development, repeated point count surveys of marsh birds were conducted from 2009 to 2011. Landsat satellite imagery was used to quantify both annual conditions and cumulative, multi-temporal habitat characteristics. We used multivariate adaptive regression splines to quantify bird-habitat relationships for fresh, intermediate, and combined marsh habitats. Multi-temporal habitat characteristics ranked as more important than single-date characteristics, as temporary water was most influential in six of eight models. Predictive power was greater for marsh type-specific models compared to general models and model transferability was poor. Birds in fresh marsh selected for annual habitat characterizations, while birds in intermediate marsh selected for cumulative wetness and heterogeneity. Our findings emphasize that dynamic ecological processes can affect species distribution and species-habitat relationships may differ with dominant landscape characteristics.

Modelling airway smooth muscle passive length adaptation via thick filament length distributions

PubMed Central

Donovan, Graham M.

2013-01-01

We present a new model of airway smooth muscle (ASM), which surrounds and constricts every airway in the lung and thus plays a central role in the airway constriction associated with asthma. This new model of ASM is based on an extension of sliding filament/crossbridge theory, which explicitly incorporates the length distribution of thick sliding filaments to account for a phenomenon known as dynamic passive length adaptation; the model exhibits good agreement with experimental data for ASM force–length behaviour across multiple scales. Principally these are (nonlinear) force–length loops at short timescales (seconds), parabolic force–length curves at medium timescales (minutes) and length adaptation at longer timescales. This represents a significant improvement on the widely-used cross-bridge models which work so well in or near the isometric regime, and may have significant implications for studies which rely on crossbridge or other dynamic airway smooth muscle models, and thus both airway and lung dynamics. PMID:23721681

Dynamic Terrin

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-30

York, 1985. [ Serway 86]: Raymond Serway , Physics for Scientists and Engineers. 2nd Edition, Saunders College Publishing, Philadelphia, 1986. pp. 200... Physical Modeling System 3.4 Realtime Hydrology 3.5 Soil Dynamics and Kinematics 4. Database Issues 4.1 Goals 4.2 Object Oriented Databases 4.3 Distributed...Animation System F. Constraints and Physical Modeling G. The PM Physical Modeling System H. Realtime Hydrology I. A Simplified Model of Soil Slumping

Ideal free distribution or dynamic game? An agent-based simulation study of trawling strategies with varying information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beecham, J. A.; Engelhard, G. H.

2007-10-01

An ecological economic model of trawling is presented to demonstrate the effect of trawling location choice strategy on net input (rate of economic gain of fish caught per time spent less costs). Fishing location choice is considered to be a dynamic process whereby trawlers chose from among a repertoire of plastic strategies that they modify if their gains fall below a fixed proportion of the mean gains of the fleet as a whole. The distribution of fishing across different areas of a fishery follows an approximate ideal free distribution (IFD) with varying noise due to uncertainty. The least-productive areas are not utilised because initial net input never reaches the mean yield of better areas subject to competitive exploitation. In cases, where there is a weak temporal autocorrelation between fish stocks in a specific location, a plastic strategy of local translocation between trawls mixed with longer-range translocation increases realised input. The trawler can change its translocation strategy in the light of information about recent trawling success compared to its long-term average but, in contrast to predictions of the Marginal Value Theorem (MVT) model, does not know for certain what it will find by moving, so may need to sample new patches. The combination of the two types of translocation mirrored beam-trawling strategies used by the Dutch fleet and the resultant distribution of trawling effort is confirmed by analysis of historical effort distribution of British otter trawling fleets in the North Sea. Fisheries exploitation represents an area where dynamic agent-based adaptive models may be a better representation of the economic dynamics of a fleet than classically inspired optimisation models.

An Agent-Based Dynamic Model for Analysis of Distributed Space Exploration Architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sindiy, Oleg V.; DeLaurentis, Daniel A.; Stein, William B.

2009-07-01

A range of complex challenges, but also potentially unique rewards, underlie the development of exploration architectures that use a distributed, dynamic network of resources across the solar system. From a methodological perspective, the prime challenge is to systematically model the evolution (and quantify comparative performance) of such architectures, under uncertainty, to effectively direct further study of specialized trajectories, spacecraft technologies, concept of operations, and resource allocation. A process model for System-of-Systems Engineering is used to define time-varying performance measures for comparative architecture analysis and identification of distinguishing patterns among interoperating systems. Agent-based modeling serves as the means to create a discrete-time simulation that generates dynamics for the study of architecture evolution. A Solar System Mobility Network proof-of-concept problem is introduced representing a set of longer-term, distributed exploration architectures. Options within this set revolve around deployment of human and robotic exploration and infrastructure assets, their organization, interoperability, and evolution, i.e., a system-of-systems. Agent-based simulations quantify relative payoffs for a fully distributed architecture (which can be significant over the long term), the latency period before they are manifest, and the up-front investment (which can be substantial compared to alternatives). Verification and sensitivity results provide further insight on development paths and indicate that the framework and simulation modeling approach may be useful in architectural design of other space exploration mass, energy, and information exchange settings.

Addressing Dynamic Issues of Program Model Checking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerda, Flavio; Visser, Willem

2001-01-01

Model checking real programs has recently become an active research area. Programs however exhibit two characteristics that make model checking difficult: the complexity of their state and the dynamic nature of many programs. Here we address both these issues within the context of the Java PathFinder (JPF) model checker. Firstly, we will show how the state of a Java program can be encoded efficiently and how this encoding can be exploited to improve model checking. Next we show how to use symmetry reductions to alleviate some of the problems introduced by the dynamic nature of Java programs. Lastly, we show how distributed model checking of a dynamic program can be achieved, and furthermore, how dynamic partitions of the state space can improve model checking. We support all our findings with results from applying these techniques within the JPF model checker.

Noise effects in bacterial motor switch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Yuhai

2006-03-01

The clockwise (CW) or counter clockwise (CCW) spinning of bacterial flagellar motors is controlled by the concentration of a phosphorylated protein CheY-P. In this talk, we represent the stochastic switching behavior of a bacterial flagellar motor by a dynamical two-state (CW and CCW) model, with the energy levels of the two states fluctuating in time according to the variation of the CheY-P concentration in the cell. We show that with a generic normal distribution and a modest amplitude for CheY-P concentration fluctuations, the dynamical two-state model is capable of generating a power-law distribution (as opposed to an exponential Poisson-like distribution) for the durations of the CCW states, in agreement with recent experimental observations of Korobkova et al (Nature, 428, 574(2004)). In addition, we show that the power spectrum for the flagellar motor switching time series is not determined solely by the power-law duration distribution, but also by the temporal correlation between the duration times of different CCW intervals. We point out the intrinsic connection between anomalously large fluctuations of the motor output and the overall high gain of the bacterial chemotaxis system. Suggestions for experimental verification of the dynamical two-state model will also be discussed.

Design of distributed PID-type dynamic matrix controller for fractional-order systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dawei; Zhang, Ridong

2018-01-01

With the continuous requirements for product quality and safety operation in industrial production, it is difficult to describe the complex large-scale processes with integer-order differential equations. However, the fractional differential equations may precisely represent the intrinsic characteristics of such systems. In this paper, a distributed PID-type dynamic matrix control method based on fractional-order systems is proposed. First, the high-order approximate model of integer order is obtained by utilising the Oustaloup method. Then, the step response model vectors of the plant is obtained on the basis of the high-order model, and the online optimisation for multivariable processes is transformed into the optimisation of each small-scale subsystem that is regarded as a sub-plant controlled in the distributed framework. Furthermore, the PID operator is introduced into the performance index of each subsystem and the fractional-order PID-type dynamic matrix controller is designed based on Nash optimisation strategy. The information exchange among the subsystems is realised through the distributed control structure so as to complete the optimisation task of the whole large-scale system. Finally, the control performance of the designed controller in this paper is verified by an example.

Dynamic Analysis of Large In-Space Deployable Membrane Antennas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Houfei; Yang, Bingen; Ding, Hongli; Hah, John; Quijano, Ubaldo; Huang, John

2006-01-01

This paper presents a vibration analysis of an eight-meter diameter membrane reflectarray antenna, which is composed of a thin membrane and a deployable frame. This analysis process has two main steps. In the first step, a two-variable-parameter (2-VP) membrane model is developed to determine the in-plane stress distribution of the membrane due to pre-tensioning, which eventually yields the differential stiffness of the membrane. In the second step, the obtained differential stiffness is incorporated in a dynamic equation governing the transverse vibration of the membrane-frame assembly. This dynamic equation is then solved by a semi-analytical method, called the Distributed Transfer Function Method (DTFM), which produces the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the antenna. The combination of the 2-VP model and the DTFM provides an accurate prediction of the in-plane stress distribution and modes of vibration for the antenna.

Universality and depinning models for plastic yield in amorphous materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budrikis, Zoe; Fernandez Castellano, David; Sandfeld, Stefan; Zaiser, Michael; Zapperi, Stefano

Plastic yield in amorphous materials occurs as a result of complex collective dynamics of local reorganizations, which gives rise to rich phenomena such as strain localization, intermittent dynamics and power-law distributed avalanches. While such systems have received considerable attention, both theoretical and experimental, controversy remains over the nature of the yielding transition. We present a new fully-tensorial coarsegrained model in 2D and 3D, and demonstrate that the exponents describing avalanche distributions are universal under a variety of loading conditions, system dimensionality and size, and boundary conditions. Our results show that while depinning-type models in general are apt to describe the system, mean field depinning models are not.

Spatial-Temporal Survey and Occupancy-Abundance Modeling To Predict Bacterial Community Dynamics in the Drinking Water Microbiome

PubMed Central

Pinto, Ameet J.; Schroeder, Joanna; Lunn, Mary; Sloan, William

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Bacterial communities migrate continuously from the drinking water treatment plant through the drinking water distribution system and into our built environment. Understanding bacterial dynamics in the distribution system is critical to ensuring that safe drinking water is being supplied to customers. We present a 15-month survey of bacterial community dynamics in the drinking water system of Ann Arbor, MI. By sampling the water leaving the treatment plant and at nine points in the distribution system, we show that the bacterial community spatial dynamics of distance decay and dispersivity conform to the layout of the drinking water distribution system. However, the patterns in spatial dynamics were weaker than those for the temporal trends, which exhibited seasonal cycling correlating with temperature and source water use patterns and also demonstrated reproducibility on an annual time scale. The temporal trends were driven by two seasonal bacterial clusters consisting of multiple taxa with different networks of association within the larger drinking water bacterial community. Finally, we show that the Ann Arbor data set robustly conforms to previously described interspecific occupancy abundance models that link the relative abundance of a taxon to the frequency of its detection. Relying on these insights, we propose a predictive framework for microbial management in drinking water systems. Further, we recommend that long-term microbial observatories that collect high-resolution, spatially distributed, multiyear time series of community composition and environmental variables be established to enable the development and testing of the predictive framework. PMID:24865557

Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant, using a high resolution, local scale, mechanistic approach: challenges and insights.

PubMed

Fennell, Mark; Murphy, James E; Gallagher, Tommy; Osborne, Bruce

2013-04-01

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Individual and group dynamics in purchasing activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lei; Guo, Jin-Li; Fan, Chao; Liu, Xue-Jiao

2013-01-01

As a major part of the daily operation in an enterprise, purchasing frequency is in constant change. Recent approaches on the human dynamics can provide some new insights into the economic behavior of companies in the supply chain. This paper captures the attributes of creation times of purchase orders to an individual vendor, as well as to all vendors, and further investigates whether they have some kind of dynamics by applying logarithmic binning to the construction of distribution plots. It’s found that the former displays a power-law distribution with approximate exponent 2.0, while the latter is fitted by a mixture distribution with both power-law and exponential characteristics. Obviously, two distinctive characteristics are presented for the interval time distribution from the perspective of individual dynamics and group dynamics. Actually, this mixing feature can be attributed to the fitting deviations as they are negligible for individual dynamics, but those of different vendors are cumulated and then lead to an exponential factor for group dynamics. To better describe the mechanism generating the heterogeneity of the purchase order assignment process from the objective company to all its vendors, a model driven by product life cycle is introduced, and then the analytical distribution and the simulation result are obtained, which are in good agreement with the empirical data.

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, Michail

This paper presents a methodology for efficient synthesis of dynamical model simulating a common-sense decision making process. The approach is based upon the extension of the physics' First Principles that includes behavior of living systems. The new architecture consists of motor dynamics simulating actual behavior of the object, and mental dynamics representing evolution of the corresponding knowledge-base and incorporating it in the form of information flows into the motor dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledgebase stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions.

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Comparison with Multiple Dynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, R.; Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.

2017-12-01

A Markov environment-dependent hurricane intensity model (MeHiM) is developed to simulate the climatology of hurricane intensity given the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved discrete states representing respectively storm's slow, moderate, and rapid intensification (and deintensification). Each state is associated with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's movement from one state to another, regarded as a Markov chain, is described by a transition probability matrix. The initial state is estimated with a Bayesian approach. All three model components (initial intensity, state transition, and intensity change) are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midlevel relative humidity, and ocean mixing characteristics. This dependent Markov model of hurricane intensity shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models) in estimating the distributions of 6-h and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity, etc. Here we compare MeHiM with various dynamical models, including a global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR)], a regional hurricane model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model), and a simplified hurricane dynamic model [Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS)] and its newly developed fast simulator. The MeHiM developed based on the reanalysis data is applied to estimate the intensity of simulated storms to compare with the dynamical-model predictions under the current climate. The dependences of hurricanes on the environment under current and future projected climates in the various models will also be compared statistically.

Predictive and Reactive Distribution of Vaccines and Antivirals during Cross-Regional Pandemic Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Uribe-Sánchez, Andrés; Savachkin, Alex

2011-01-01

As recently pointed out by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. We develop a large-scale simulation-driven optimization model for generating dynamic predictive distribution of vaccines and antivirals over a network of regional pandemic outbreaks. The model incorporates measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the cost of lost productivity and medical expenses. The performance of the strategy is compared to that of the reactive myopic policy, using a sample outbreak in Fla, USA, with an affected population of over four millions. The comparison is implemented at different levels of vaccine and antiviral availability and administration capacity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The model is intended to support public health policy making for effective distribution of limited mitigation resources. PMID:23074658

Using System Dynamic Model and Neural Network Model to Analyse Water Scarcity in Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Tang, C.; Xu, L.; Ye, S.

2017-07-01

Many parts of the world are facing the problem of Water Scarcity. Analysing Water Scarcity quantitatively is an important step to solve the problem. Water scarcity in a region is gauged by WSI (water scarcity index), which incorporate water supply and water demand. To get the WSI, Neural Network Model and SDM (System Dynamic Model) that depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand are developed to depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand. The uneven distribution of water resource and water demand across a region leads to an uneven distribution of WSI within this region. To predict WSI for the future, logistic model, Grey Prediction, and statistics are applied in predicting variables. Sudan suffers from severe water scarcity problem with WSI of 1 in 2014, water resource unevenly distributed. According to the result of modified model, after the intervention, Sudan’s water situation will become better.

Short-ranged memory model with preferential growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaigorodsky, Ana L.; Perotti, Juan I.; Almeira, Nahuel; Billoni, Orlando V.

2018-02-01

In this work we introduce a variant of the Yule-Simon model for preferential growth by incorporating a finite kernel to model the effects of bounded memory. We characterize the properties of the model combining analytical arguments with extensive numerical simulations. In particular, we analyze the lifetime and popularity distributions by mapping the model dynamics to corresponding Markov chains and branching processes, respectively. These distributions follow power laws with well-defined exponents that are within the range of the empirical data reported in ecologies. Interestingly, by varying the innovation rate, this simple out-of-equilibrium model exhibits many of the characteristics of a continuous phase transition and, around the critical point, it generates time series with power-law popularity, lifetime and interevent time distributions, and nontrivial temporal correlations, such as a bursty dynamics in analogy with the activity of solar flares. Our results suggest that an appropriate balance between innovation and oblivion rates could provide an explanatory framework for many of the properties commonly observed in many complex systems.

Short-ranged memory model with preferential growth.

PubMed

Schaigorodsky, Ana L; Perotti, Juan I; Almeira, Nahuel; Billoni, Orlando V

2018-02-01

In this work we introduce a variant of the Yule-Simon model for preferential growth by incorporating a finite kernel to model the effects of bounded memory. We characterize the properties of the model combining analytical arguments with extensive numerical simulations. In particular, we analyze the lifetime and popularity distributions by mapping the model dynamics to corresponding Markov chains and branching processes, respectively. These distributions follow power laws with well-defined exponents that are within the range of the empirical data reported in ecologies. Interestingly, by varying the innovation rate, this simple out-of-equilibrium model exhibits many of the characteristics of a continuous phase transition and, around the critical point, it generates time series with power-law popularity, lifetime and interevent time distributions, and nontrivial temporal correlations, such as a bursty dynamics in analogy with the activity of solar flares. Our results suggest that an appropriate balance between innovation and oblivion rates could provide an explanatory framework for many of the properties commonly observed in many complex systems.

Dealing with uncertainty in modeling intermittent water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, A. M.; Rycroft, C.; Wilkening, J.

2015-12-01

Intermittency in urban water supply affects hundreds of millions of people in cities around the world, impacting water quality and infrastructure. Building on previous work to dynamically model the transient flows in water distribution networks undergoing frequent filling and emptying, we now consider the hydraulic implications of uncertain input data. Water distribution networks undergoing intermittent supply are often poorly mapped, and household metering frequently ranges from patchy to nonexistent. In the face of uncertain pipe material, pipe slope, network connectivity, and outflow, we investigate how uncertainty affects dynamical modeling results. We furthermore identify which parameters exert the greatest influence on uncertainty, helping to prioritize data collection.

Improving the Aircraft Design Process Using Web-Based Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, John A.; Follen, Gregory J.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.; Follen, Gregory J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Designing and developing new aircraft systems is time-consuming and expensive. Computational simulation is a promising means for reducing design cycle times, but requires a flexible software environment capable of integrating advanced multidisciplinary and multifidelity analysis methods, dynamically managing data across heterogeneous computing platforms, and distributing computationally complex tasks. Web-based simulation, with its emphasis on collaborative composition of simulation models, distributed heterogeneous execution, and dynamic multimedia documentation, has the potential to meet these requirements. This paper outlines the current aircraft design process, highlighting its problems and complexities, and presents our vision of an aircraft design process using Web-based modeling and simulation.

Improving the Aircraft Design Process Using Web-based Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, John A.; Follen, Gregory J.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.

2003-01-01

Designing and developing new aircraft systems is time-consuming and expensive. Computational simulation is a promising means for reducing design cycle times, but requires a flexible software environment capable of integrating advanced multidisciplinary and muitifidelity analysis methods, dynamically managing data across heterogeneous computing platforms, and distributing computationally complex tasks. Web-based simulation, with its emphasis on collaborative composition of simulation models, distributed heterogeneous execution, and dynamic multimedia documentation, has the potential to meet these requirements. This paper outlines the current aircraft design process, highlighting its problems and complexities, and presents our vision of an aircraft design process using Web-based modeling and simulation.

A study of a diffusive model of asset returns and an empirical analysis of financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alejandro Quinones, Angel Luis

A diffusive model for market dynamics is studied and the predictions of the model are compared to real financial markets. The model has a non-constant diffusion coefficient which depends both on the asset value and the time. A general solution for the distribution of returns is obtained and shown to match the results of computer simulations for two simple cases, piecewise linear and quadratic diffusion. The effects of discreteness in the market dynamics on the model are also studied. For the quadratic diffusion case, a type of phase transition leading to fat tails is observed as the discrete distribution approaches the continuum limit. It is also found that the model captures some of the empirical stylized facts observed in real markets, including fat-tails and scaling behavior in the distribution of returns. An analysis of empirical data for the EUR/USD currency exchange rate and the S&P 500 index is performed. Both markets show time scaling behavior consistent with a value of 1/2 for the Hurst exponent. Finally, the results show that the distribution of returns for the two markets is well fitted by the model, and the corresponding empirical diffusion coefficients are determined.

Perceiving while producing: Modeling the dynamics of phonological planning

PubMed Central

Roon, Kevin D.; Gafos, Adamantios I.

2016-01-01

We offer a dynamical model of phonological planning that provides a formal instantiation of how the speech production and perception systems interact during online processing. The model is developed on the basis of evidence from an experimental task that requires concurrent use of both systems, the so-called response-distractor task in which speakers hear distractor syllables while they are preparing to produce required responses. The model formalizes how ongoing response planning is affected by perception and accounts for a range of results reported across previous studies. It does so by explicitly addressing the setting of parameter values in representations. The key unit of the model is that of the dynamic field, a distribution of activation over the range of values associated with each representational parameter. The setting of parameter values takes place by the attainment of a stable distribution of activation over the entire field, stable in the sense that it persists even after the response cue in the above experiments has been removed. This and other properties of representations that have been taken as axiomatic in previous work are derived by the dynamics of the proposed model. PMID:27440947

Simulation of Tasks Distribution in Horizontally Scalable Management System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kustov, D.; Sherstneva, A.; Botygin, I.

2016-08-01

This paper presents an imitational model of the task distribution system for the components of territorially-distributed automated management system with a dynamically changing topology. Each resource of the distributed automated management system is represented with an agent, which allows to set behavior of every resource in the best possible way and ensure their interaction. The agent work load imitation was done via service query imitation formed in a system dynamics style using a stream diagram. The query generation took place in the abstract-represented center - afterwards, they were sent to the drive to be distributed to management system resources according to a ranking table.

[Sectional structure of a tree. Model analysis of the vertical biomass distribution].

PubMed

Galitskiĭ, V V

2010-01-01

A model has been proposed for the architecture of a tree in which virtual trees appear rhythmically on the treetop. Each consecutive virtual tree is a part of the previous tree. The difference between two adjacent virtual trees is a section--an element of the real tree structure. In case of a spruce, the section represents a verticil of a stem with the corresponding internode. Dynamics of a photosynthesizing part of the physiologically active biomass of each section differ from the corresponding dynamics of the virtual trees and the whole real tree. If the tree biomass dynamics has a sigma-shaped form, then the section dynamics have to be bell-shaped. It means that the lower stem should accordingly become bare, which is typically observed in nature. Model analysis reveals the limiting, in the age, form of trees to be an "umbrella". It can be observed in nature and is an outcome of physical limitation of the tree height combined with the sigma-shaped form of the tree biomass dynamics. Variation of model parameters provides for various forms of the tree biomass distribution along the height, which can be associated with certain biological species of trees.

Variable threshold algorithm for division of labor analyzed as a dynamical system.

PubMed

Castillo-Cagigal, Manuel; Matallanas, Eduardo; Navarro, Iñaki; Caamaño-Martín, Estefanía; Monasterio-Huelin, Félix; Gutiérrez, Álvaro

2014-12-01

Division of labor is a widely studied aspect of colony behavior of social insects. Division of labor models indicate how individuals distribute themselves in order to perform different tasks simultaneously. However, models that study division of labor from a dynamical system point of view cannot be found in the literature. In this paper, we define a division of labor model as a discrete-time dynamical system, in order to study the equilibrium points and their properties related to convergence and stability. By making use of this analytical model, an adaptive algorithm based on division of labor can be designed to satisfy dynamic criteria. In this way, we have designed and tested an algorithm that varies the response thresholds in order to modify the dynamic behavior of the system. This behavior modification allows the system to adapt to specific environmental and collective situations, making the algorithm a good candidate for distributed control applications. The variable threshold algorithm is based on specialization mechanisms. It is able to achieve an asymptotically stable behavior of the system in different environments and independently of the number of individuals. The algorithm has been successfully tested under several initial conditions and number of individuals.

Structure and dynamics of complex liquid water: Molecular dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

S, Indrajith V.; Natesan, Baskaran

2015-06-01

We have carried out detailed structure and dynamical studies of complex liquid water using molecular dynamics simulations. Three different model potentials, namely, TIP3P, TIP4P and SPC-E have been used in the simulations, in order to arrive at the best possible potential function that could reproduce the structure of experimental bulk water. All the simulations were performed in the NVE micro canonical ensemble using LAMMPS. The radial distribution functions, gOO, gOH and gHH and the self diffusion coefficient, Ds, were calculated for all three models. We conclude from our results that the structure and dynamical parameters obtained for SPC-E model matched well with the experimental values, suggesting that among the models studied here, the SPC-E model gives the best structure and dynamics of bulk water.

Modeling of Antarctic sea ice in a general circulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Xingren; Budd, W.F.; Simmonds, I.

1997-04-01

A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is developed and coupled with the Melbourne University general circulation model to simulate the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice distributions The model is efficient, rapid to compute, and useful for a range of climate studies. The thermodynamic part of the sea ice model is similar to that developed by Parkinson and Washington, the dynamics contain a simplified ice rheology that resists compression. The thermodynamics is based on energy conservation at the top surface of the ice/snow, the ice/water interface, and the open water area to determine the ice formation, accretion, and ablation. Amore » lead parameterization is introduced with an effective partitioning scheme for freezing between and under the ice floes. The dynamic calculation determines the motion of ice, which is forced with the atmospheric wind, taking account of ice resistance and rafting. The simulated sea ice distribution compares reasonably well with observations. The seasonal cycle of ice extent is well simulated in phase as well as in magnitude. Simulated sea ice thickness and concentration are also in good agreement with observations over most regions and serve to indicate the importance of advection and ocean drift in the determination of the sea ice distribution. 64 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Evaluation of the Thermodynamic Consistency of Closure Approximations in Several Models Proposed for the Description of Liquid Crystalline Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Brian J.

2002-05-01

Given the premise that a set of dynamical equations must possess a definite, underlying mathematical structure to ensure local and global thermodynamic stability, as has been well documented, several different models for describing liquid crystalline dynamics are examined with respect to said structure. These models, each derived during the past several years using a specific closure approximation for the fourth moment of the distribution function in Doi's rigid rod theory, are all shown to be inconsistent with this basic mathematical structure. The source of this inconsistency lies in Doi's expressions for the extra stress tensor and temporal evolution of the order parameter, which are rederived herein using a transformation that allows for internal compatibility with the underlying mathematical structure that is present on the distribution function level of description.

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; William D. Dijak; Jacob Fraser; Wen J. Wang; Brice Hanberry; Hong He; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Leslie Brandt; Chris Swanston

2016-01-01

Context. Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process...

Power Laws are Disguised Boltzmann Laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Peter; Solomon, Sorin

Using a previously introduced model on generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamics together with some recent results for the solution of generalized Langevin equations, we derive analytically the equilibrium mean field solution for the probability distribution of wealth and show that it has two characteristic regimes. For large values of wealth, it takes the form of a Pareto style power law. For small values of wealth, w<=wm, the distribution function tends sharply to zero. The origin of this law lies in the random multiplicative process built into the model. Whilst such results have been known since the time of Gibrat, the present framework allows for a stable power law in an arbitrary and irregular global dynamics, so long as the market is ``fair'', i.e., there is no net advantage to any particular group or individual. We further show that the dynamics of relative wealth is independent of the specific nature of the agent interactions and exhibits a universal character even though the total wealth may follow an arbitrary and complicated dynamics. In developing the theory, we draw parallels with conventional thermodynamics and derive for the system some new relations for the ``thermodynamics'' associated with the Generalized Lotka-Volterra type of stochastic dynamics. The power law that arises in the distribution function is identified with new additional logarithmic terms in the familiar Boltzmann distribution function for the system. These are a direct consequence of the multiplicative stochastic dynamics and are absent for the usual additive stochastic processes.

Modeling a beaver population on the Prescott Peninsula, Massachusetts: Feasibility of LANDSAT as an input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finn, J. T.; Howard, R.

1981-01-01

A preliminary dynamic model of beaver spatial distribution and population growth was developed. The feasibility of locating beaver ponds on LANDSAT digital tapes, and of using this information to provide initial conditions of beaver spatial distribution for the model, and to validate model predictions is discussed. The techniques used to identify beaver ponds on LANDSAT are described.

Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

PubMed Central

Chen, Shi; White, Brad J.; Sanderson, Michael W.; Amrine, David E.; Ilany, Amiyaal; Lanzas, Cristina

2014-01-01

Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmission. The animal contact network aggregated at hourly level was highly variable and dynamic within and between days, for both network structure (network degree distribution) and individual rank of degree distribution in the network (degree order). We integrated network degree distribution and degree order heterogeneities with a commonly used contact-based, directly transmitted disease model to quantify the effect of these two sources of heterogeneity on the infectious disease dynamics. Four conditions were simulated based on the combination of these two heterogeneities. Simulation results indicated that disease dynamics and individual contribution to new infections varied substantially among these four conditions under both parameter settings. Changes in the contact network had a greater effect on disease dynamics for pathogens with smaller basic reproduction number (i.e. R0 < 2). PMID:24667241

Establishing conservation baselines with dynamic distribution models for bat populations facing imminent decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

2015-01-01

Landscape keystone structures associated with roosting habitat emerged as regionally important predictors of bat distributions. The challenges of bat monitoring have constrained previous species distribution modelling efforts to temporally static presence-only approaches. Our approach extends to broader spatial and temporal scales than has been possible in the past for bats, making a substantial increase in capacity for bat conservation.

Integration of Dynamic Models in Range Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

2004-01-01

This work addresses the various model interactions in real-time to make an efficient internet based decision making tool for Shuttle launch. The decision making tool depends on the launch commit criteria coupled with physical models. Dynamic interaction between a wide variety of simulation applications and techniques, embedded algorithms, and data visualizations are needed to exploit the full potential of modeling and simulation. This paper also discusses in depth details of web based 3-D graphics and applications to range safety. The advantages of this dynamic model integration are secure accessibility and distribution of real time information to other NASA centers.

Faster than Real-Time Dynamic Simulation for Large-Size Power System with Detailed Dynamic Models using High-Performance Computing Platform

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Renke; Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu

This paper presents a faster-than-real-time dynamic simulation software package that is designed for large-size power system dynamic simulation. It was developed on the GridPACKTM high-performance computing (HPC) framework. The key features of the developed software package include (1) faster-than-real-time dynamic simulation for a WECC system (17,000 buses) with different types of detailed generator, controller, and relay dynamic models, (2) a decoupled parallel dynamic simulation algorithm with optimized computation architecture to better leverage HPC resources and technologies, (3) options for HPC-based linear and iterative solvers, (4) hidden HPC details, such as data communication and distribution, to enable development centered on mathematicalmore » models and algorithms rather than on computational details for power system researchers, and (5) easy integration of new dynamic models and related algorithms into the software package.« less

Analytically Solvable Model of Spreading Dynamics with Non-Poissonian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Hang-Hyun; Perotti, Juan I.; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2014-01-01

Non-Poissonian bursty processes are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena, yet little is known about their effects on the large-scale spreading dynamics. In order to characterize these effects, we devise an analytically solvable model of susceptible-infected spreading dynamics in infinite systems for arbitrary inter-event time distributions and for the whole time range. Our model is stationary from the beginning, and the role of the lower bound of inter-event times is explicitly considered. The exact solution shows that for early and intermediate times, the burstiness accelerates the spreading as compared to a Poisson-like process with the same mean and same lower bound of inter-event times. Such behavior is opposite for late-time dynamics in finite systems, where the power-law distribution of inter-event times results in a slower and algebraic convergence to a fully infected state in contrast to the exponential decay of the Poisson-like process. We also provide an intuitive argument for the exponent characterizing algebraic convergence.

Analysis Of Dynamic Interactions Between Solar Array Simulators And Spacecraft Power Conditioning And Distribution Units

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia, V.; Barrado, A.; Lazaro, A.; Rueda, P.; Tonicello, F.; Fernandez, A.; Mourra, O.

2011-10-01

Solar array simulators (SASs) are hardware devices, commonly applied instead of actual solar arrays (SAs) during the design process of spacecrafts power conditioning and distribution units (PCDUs), and during spacecrafts assembly integration and tests. However, the dynamic responses between SASs and actual SAs are usually different. This fact plays an important role, since the dynamic response of the SAS may influence significantly the dynamic behaviour of the PCDU under certain conditions, even leading to instability. This paper deals with the dynamic interactions between SASs and PCDUs. Several methods for dynamic characterization of the SASs are discussed, and the response of commercial SASs widely applied in the space industry is compared to that of actual SAs. After that, the interactions are experimentally analyzed by using a boost converter connected to the aforementioned SASs, thus demonstrating their critical importance. The interactions are first tackled analytically by means of small-signal models, and finally a black-box modelling method of SASs is proposed as a useful tool to analyze the interactions by means of simulation. The capabilities of both the analytical method and the black- box model to predict the interactions are demonstrated.

Water age and stream solute dynamics at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (US)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botter, Gianluca; Benettin, Paolo; McGuire, Kevin; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-04-01

The contribution discusses experimental and modeling results from a headwater catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (New Hampshire, USA) to explore the link between stream solute dynamics and water age. A theoretical framework based on water age dynamics, which represents a general basis for characterizing solute transport at the catchment scale, is used to model both conservative and weathering-derived solutes. Based on the available information about the hydrology of the site, an integrated transport model was developed and used to estimate the relevant hydrochemical fluxes. The model was designed to reproduce the deuterium content of streamflow and allowed for the estimate of catchment water storage and dynamic travel time distributions (TTDs). Within this framework, dissolved silicon and sodium concentration in streamflow were simulated by implementing first-order chemical kinetics based explicitly on dynamic TTD, thus upscaling local geochemical processes to catchment scale. Our results highlight the key role of water stored within the subsoil glacial material in both the short-term and long-term solute circulation at Hubbard Brook. The analysis of the results provided by the calibrated model allowed a robust estimate of the emerging concentration-discharge relationship, streamflow age distributions (including the fraction of event water) and storage size, and their evolution in time due to hydrologic variability.

A Pathophysiological Model-Driven Communication for Dynamic Distributed Medical Best Practice Guidance Systems.

PubMed

Hosseini, Mohammad; Jiang, Yu; Wu, Poliang; Berlin, Richard B; Ren, Shangping; Sha, Lui

2016-11-01

There is a great divide between rural and urban areas, particularly in medical emergency care. Although medical best practice guidelines exist and are in hospital handbooks, they are often lengthy and difficult to apply clinically. The challenges are exaggerated for doctors in rural areas and emergency medical technicians (EMT) during patient transport. In this paper, we propose the concept of distributed executable medical best practice guidance systems to assist adherence to best practice from the time that a patient first presents at a rural hospital, through diagnosis and ambulance transfer to arrival and treatment at a regional tertiary hospital center. We codify complex medical knowledge in the form of simplified distributed executable disease automata, from the thin automata at rural hospitals to the rich automata in the regional center hospitals. However, a main challenge is how to efficiently and safely synchronize distributed best practice models as the communication among medical facilities, devices, and professionals generates a large number of messages. This complex problem of patient diagnosis and transport from rural to center facility is also fraught with many uncertainties and changes resulting in a high degree of dynamism. A critically ill patient's medical conditions can change abruptly in addition to changes in the wireless bandwidth during the ambulance transfer. Such dynamics have yet to be addressed in existing literature on telemedicine. To address this situation, we propose a pathophysiological model-driven message exchange communication architecture that ensures the real-time and dynamic requirements of synchronization among distributed emergency best practice models are met in a reliable and safe manner. Taking the signs, symptoms, and progress of stroke patients transported across a geographically distributed healthcare network as the motivating use case, we implement our communication system and apply it to our developed best practice automata using laboratory simulations. Our proof-of-concept experiments shows there is potential for the use of our system in a wide variety of domains.

Spreading Activation in an Attractor Network with Latching Dynamics: Automatic Semantic Priming Revisited

PubMed Central

Lerner, Itamar; Bentin, Shlomo; Shriki, Oren

2012-01-01

Localist models of spreading activation (SA) and models assuming distributed-representations offer very different takes on semantic priming, a widely investigated paradigm in word recognition and semantic memory research. In the present study we implemented SA in an attractor neural network model with distributed representations and created a unified framework for the two approaches. Our models assumes a synaptic depression mechanism leading to autonomous transitions between encoded memory patterns (latching dynamics), which account for the major characteristics of automatic semantic priming in humans. Using computer simulations we demonstrated how findings that challenged attractor-based networks in the past, such as mediated and asymmetric priming, are a natural consequence of our present model’s dynamics. Puzzling results regarding backward priming were also given a straightforward explanation. In addition, the current model addresses some of the differences between semantic and associative relatedness and explains how these differences interact with stimulus onset asynchrony in priming experiments. PMID:23094718

Data Intensive Systems (DIS) Benchmark Performance Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-08-01

models assumed by today’s conventional architectures. Such applications include model- based Automatic Target Recognition (ATR), synthetic aperture...radar (SAR) codes, large scale dynamic databases/battlefield integration, dynamic sensor- based processing, high-speed cryptanalysis, high speed...distributed interactive and data intensive simulations, data-oriented problems characterized by pointer- based and other highly irregular data structures

Cell transmission model of dynamic assignment for urban rail transit networks.

PubMed

Xu, Guangming; Zhao, Shuo; Shi, Feng; Zhang, Feilian

2017-01-01

For urban rail transit network, the space-time flow distribution can play an important role in evaluating and optimizing the space-time resource allocation. For obtaining the space-time flow distribution without the restriction of schedules, a dynamic assignment problem is proposed based on the concept of continuous transmission. To solve the dynamic assignment problem, the cell transmission model is built for urban rail transit networks. The priority principle, queuing process, capacity constraints and congestion effects are considered in the cell transmission mechanism. Then an efficient method is designed to solve the shortest path for an urban rail network, which decreases the computing cost for solving the cell transmission model. The instantaneous dynamic user optimal state can be reached with the method of successive average. Many evaluation indexes of passenger flow can be generated, to provide effective support for the optimization of train schedules and the capacity evaluation for urban rail transit network. Finally, the model and its potential application are demonstrated via two numerical experiments using a small-scale network and the Beijing Metro network.

Investigation of North American Vegetation Variability under Recent Climate: A Study Using the SSiB4/TRIFFID Biophysical/Dynamic Vegetation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhengqiu; Xue, Yongkang; MacDonald, Glen; Cox, Peter M.; Collatz, George J.

2015-01-01

Recent studies have shown that current dynamic vegetation models have serious weaknesses in reproducing the observed vegetation dynamics and contribute to bias in climate simulations. This study intends to identify the major factors that underlie the connections between vegetation dynamics and climate variability and investigates vegetation spatial distribution and temporal variability at seasonal to decadal scales over North America (NA) to assess a 2-D biophysical model/dynamic vegetation model's (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID)) ability to simulate these characteristics for the past 60 years (1948 through 2008). Satellite data are employed as constraints for the study and to compare the relationships between vegetation and climate from the observational and the simulation data sets. Trends in NA vegetation over this period are examined. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis, leaf drop threshold temperatures, and competition coefficients in the Lotka-Volterra equation, which describes the population dynamics of species competing for some common resource, have been identified as having major impacts on vegetation spatial distribution and obtaining proper initial vegetation conditions in SSiB4/TRIFFID. The finding that vegetation competition coefficients significantly affect vegetation distribution suggests the importance of including biotic effects in dynamical vegetation modeling. The improved SSiB4/TRIFFID can reproduce the main features of the NA distributions of dominant vegetation types, the vegetation fraction, and leaf area index (LAI), including its seasonal, interannual, and decadal variabilities. The simulated NA LAI also shows a general increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Both simulation and satellite observations reveal that LAI increased substantially in the southeastern U.S. starting from the 1980s. The effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from decreases in the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. Both simulated and satellite-derived LAIs have the strongest correlations with air temperature at northern middle to high latitudes in spring reflecting the effect of these climatic variables on photosynthesis and phenological processes. Meanwhile, in southwestern dry lands, negative correlations appear due to the heat and moisture stress there during the summer. Furthermore, there are also positive correlations between soil wetness and LAI, which increases from spring to summer. The present study shows both the current improvements and remaining weaknesses in dynamical vegetation models. It also highlights large continental-scale variations that have occurred in NA vegetation over the past six decades and their potential relations to climate. With more observational data availability, more studies with differentmodels and focusing on different regions will be possible and are necessary to achieve comprehensive understanding of the vegetation dynamics and climate interactions.

The flow structure of jets from transient sources and implications for modeling short-duration explosive volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chojnicki, K. N.; Clarke, A. B.; Adrian, R. J.; Phillips, J. C.

2014-12-01

We used laboratory experiments to examine the rise process in neutrally buoyant jets that resulted from an unsteady supply of momentum, a condition that defines plumes from discrete Vulcanian and Strombolian-style eruptions. We simultaneously measured the analog-jet discharge rate (the supply rate of momentum) and the analog-jet internal velocity distribution (a consequence of momentum transport and dilution). Then, we examined the changes in the analog-jet velocity distribution over time to assess the impact of the supply-rate variations on the momentum-driven rise dynamics. We found that the analog-jet velocity distribution changes significantly and quickly as the supply rate varied, such that the whole-field distribution at any instant differed considerably from the time average. We also found that entrainment varied in space and over time with instantaneous entrainment coefficient values ranging from 0 to 0.93 in an individual unsteady jet. Consequently, we conclude that supply-rate variations exert first-order control over jet dynamics, and therefore cannot be neglected in models without compromising their capability to predict large-scale eruption behavior. These findings emphasize the fundamental differences between unsteady and steady jet dynamics, and show clearly that: (i) variations in source momentum flux directly control the dynamics of the resulting flow; (ii) impulsive flows driven by sources of varying flux cannot reasonably be approximated by quasi-steady flow models. New modeling approaches capable of describing the time-dependent properties of transient volcanic eruption plumes are needed before their trajectory, dilution, and stability can be reliably computed for hazards management.

Open-source framework for power system transmission and distribution dynamics co-simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Renke; Fan, Rui; Daily, Jeff

The promise of the smart grid entails more interactions between the transmission and distribution networks, and there is an immediate need for tools to provide the comprehensive modelling and simulation required to integrate operations at both transmission and distribution levels. Existing electromagnetic transient simulators can perform simulations with integration of transmission and distribution systems, but the computational burden is high for large-scale system analysis. For transient stability analysis, currently there are only separate tools for simulating transient dynamics of the transmission and distribution systems. In this paper, we introduce an open source co-simulation framework “Framework for Network Co-Simulation” (FNCS), togethermore » with the decoupled simulation approach that links existing transmission and distribution dynamic simulators through FNCS. FNCS is a middleware interface and framework that manages the interaction and synchronization of the transmission and distribution simulators. Preliminary testing results show the validity and capability of the proposed open-source co-simulation framework and the decoupled co-simulation methodology.« less

Integration of a Physically based Distributed Hydrological Model with a Model of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling: A Case Study at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastola, S.; Dialynas, Y. G.; Bras, R. L.; Arnone, E.; Noto, L. V.

2015-12-01

The dynamics of carbon and nitrogen cycles, increasingly influenced by human activities, are the key to the functioning of ecosystems. These cycles are influenced by the composition of the substrate, availability of nitrogen, the population of microorganisms, and by environmental factors. Therefore, land management and use, climate change, and nitrogen deposition patterns influence the dynamics of these macronutrients at the landscape scale. In this work a physically based distributed hydrological model, the tRIBS model, is coupled with a process-based multi-compartment model of the biogeochemical cycle to simulate the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen (CN) in the Mameyes River basin, Puerto Rico. The model includes a wide range of processes that influence the movement, production, alteration of nutrients in the landscape and factors that affect the CN cycling. The tRIBS integrates geomorphological and climatic factors that influence the cycling of CN in soil. Implementing the decomposition module into tRIBS makes the model a powerful complement to a biogeochemical observation system and a forecast tool able to analyze the influences of future changes on ecosystem services. The soil hydrologic parameters of the model were obtained using ranges of published parameters and observed streamflow data at the outlet. The parameters of the decomposition module are based on previously published data from studies conducted in the Luquillio CZO (budgets of soil organic matter and CN ratio for each of the dominant vegetation types across the landscape). Hydrological fluxes, wet depositon of nitrogen, litter fall and its corresponding CN ratio drive the decomposition model. The simulation results demonstrate a strong influence of soil moisture dynamics on the spatiotemporal distribution of nutrients at the landscape level. The carbon in the litter pool and the nitrate and ammonia pool respond quickly to soil moisture content. Moreover, the CN ratios of the plant litter have significant influence in the dynamics of CN cycling.

Generalized correlation integral vectors: A distance concept for chaotic dynamical systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haario, Heikki, E-mail: heikki.haario@lut.fi; Kalachev, Leonid, E-mail: KalachevL@mso.umt.edu; Hakkarainen, Janne

2015-06-15

Several concepts of fractal dimension have been developed to characterise properties of attractors of chaotic dynamical systems. Numerical approximations of them must be calculated by finite samples of simulated trajectories. In principle, the quantities should not depend on the choice of the trajectory, as long as it provides properly distributed samples of the underlying attractor. In practice, however, the trajectories are sensitive with respect to varying initial values, small changes of the model parameters, to the choice of a solver, numeric tolerances, etc. The purpose of this paper is to present a statistically sound approach to quantify this variability. Wemore » modify the concept of correlation integral to produce a vector that summarises the variability at all selected scales. The distribution of this stochastic vector can be estimated, and it provides a statistical distance concept between trajectories. Here, we demonstrate the use of the distance for the purpose of estimating model parameters of a chaotic dynamic model. The methodology is illustrated using computational examples for the Lorenz 63 and Lorenz 95 systems, together with a framework for Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to produce posterior distributions of model parameters.« less

Analysis of discrete and continuous distributions of ventilatory time constants from dynamic computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doebrich, Marcus; Markstaller, Klaus; Karmrodt, Jens; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Eberle, Balthasar; Weiler, Norbert; Thelen, Manfred; Schreiber, Wolfgang G.

2005-04-01

In this study, an algorithm was developed to measure the distribution of pulmonary time constants (TCs) from dynamic computed tomography (CT) data sets during a sudden airway pressure step up. Simulations with synthetic data were performed to test the methodology as well as the influence of experimental noise. Furthermore the algorithm was applied to in vivo data. In five pigs sudden changes in airway pressure were imposed during dynamic CT acquisition in healthy lungs and in a saline lavage ARDS model. The fractional gas content in the imaged slice (FGC) was calculated by density measurements for each CT image. Temporal variations of the FGC were analysed assuming a model with a continuous distribution of exponentially decaying time constants. The simulations proved the feasibility of the method. The influence of experimental noise could be well evaluated. Analysis of the in vivo data showed that in healthy lungs ventilation processes can be more likely characterized by discrete TCs whereas in ARDS lungs continuous distributions of TCs are observed. The temporal behaviour of lung inflation and deflation can be characterized objectively using the described new methodology. This study indicates that continuous distributions of TCs reflect lung ventilation mechanics more accurately compared to discrete TCs.

Vibration monitoring of a helicopter blade model using the optical fiber distributed strain sensing technique.

PubMed

Wada, Daichi; Igawa, Hirotaka; Kasai, Tokio

2016-09-01

We demonstrate a dynamic distributed monitoring technique using a long-length fiber Bragg grating (FBG) interrogated by optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) that measures strain at a speed of 150 Hz, spatial resolution of 1 mm, and measurement range of 20 m. A 5 m FBG is bonded to a 5.5 m helicopter blade model, and vibration is applied by the step relaxation method. The time domain responses of the strain distributions are measured, and the blade deflections are calculated based on the strain distributions. Frequency response functions are obtained using the time domain responses of the calculated deflection induced by the preload release, and the modal parameters are retrieved. Experimental results demonstrated the dynamic monitoring performances and the applicability to the modal analysis of the OFDR-FBG technique.

Estimation of beam material random field properties via sensitivity-based model updating using experimental frequency response functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, M. R.; Adhikari, S.; Dos Santos, J. M. C.; Arruda, J. R. F.

2018-03-01

Structural parameter estimation is affected not only by measurement noise but also by unknown uncertainties which are present in the system. Deterministic structural model updating methods minimise the difference between experimentally measured data and computational prediction. Sensitivity-based methods are very efficient in solving structural model updating problems. Material and geometrical parameters of the structure such as Poisson's ratio, Young's modulus, mass density, modal damping, etc. are usually considered deterministic and homogeneous. In this paper, the distributed and non-homogeneous characteristics of these parameters are considered in the model updating. The parameters are taken as spatially correlated random fields and are expanded in a spectral Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition. Using the KL expansion, the spectral dynamic stiffness matrix of the beam is expanded as a series in terms of discretized parameters, which can be estimated using sensitivity-based model updating techniques. Numerical and experimental tests involving a beam with distributed bending rigidity and mass density are used to verify the proposed method. This extension of standard model updating procedures can enhance the dynamic description of structural dynamic models.

MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated carbon, nutrients, and water—technical documentation. Version 1.0.

Treesearch

Dominique Bachelet; James M. Lenihan; Christopher Daly; Ronald P. Neilson; Dennis S. Ojima; William J. Parton

2001-01-01

Assessments of vegetation response to climate change have generally been made only by equilibrium vegetation models that predict vegetation composition under steady-state conditions. These models do not simulate either ecosystem biogeochemical processes or changes in ecosystem structure that may, in turn, act as feedbacks in determining the dynamics of vegetation...

Modelling spatiotemporal distribution patterns of earthworms in order to indicate hydrological soil processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palm, Juliane; Klaus, Julian; van Schaik, Loes; Zehe, Erwin; Schröder, Boris

2010-05-01

Soils provide central ecosystem functions in recycling nutrients, detoxifying harmful chemicals as well as regulating microclimate and local hydrological processes. The internal regulation of these functions and therefore the development of healthy and fertile soils mainly depend on the functional diversity of plants and animals. Soil organisms drive essential processes such as litter decomposition, nutrient cycling, water dynamics, and soil structure formation. Disturbances by different soil management practices (e.g., soil tillage, fertilization, pesticide application) affect the distribution and abundance of soil organisms and hence influence regulating processes. The strong relationship between environmental conditions and soil organisms gives us the opportunity to link spatiotemporal distribution patterns of indicator species with the potential provision of essential soil processes on different scales. Earthworms are key organisms for soil function and affect, among other things, water dynamics and solute transport in soils. Through their burrowing activity, earthworms increase the number of macropores by building semi-permanent burrow systems. In the unsaturated zone, earthworm burrows act as preferential flow pathways and affect water infiltration, surface-, subsurface- and matrix flow as well as the transport of water and solutes into deeper soil layers. Thereby different ecological earthworm types have different importance. Deep burrowing anecic earthworm species (e.g., Lumbricus terrestris) affect the vertical flow and thus increase the risk of potential contamination of ground water with agrochemicals. In contrast, horizontal burrowing endogeic (e.g., Aporrectodea caliginosa) and epigeic species (e.g., Lumbricus rubellus) increase water conductivity and the diffuse distribution of water and solutes in the upper soil layers. The question which processes are more relevant is pivotal for soil management and risk assessment. Thus, finding relevant environmental predictors which explain the distribution and dynamics of different ecological earthworm types can help us to understand where or when these processes are relevant in the landscape. Therefore, we develop species distribution models which are a useful tool to predict spatiotemporal distributions of earthworm occurrence and abundance under changing environmental conditions. On field scale, geostatistical distribution maps have shown that the spatial distribution of earthworms depends on soil parameters such as food supply, soil moisture, bulk density but with different patterns for earthworm stages (adult, juvenile) and ecological types (anecic, endogeic, epigeic). On landscape scales, earthworm distribution seems to be strongly controlled by management/disturbance-related factors. Our study shows different modelling approaches for predicting distribution patterns of earthworms in the Weiherbach area, an agricultural site in Kraichtal (Baden-Württemberg, Germany). We carried out field studies on arable fields differing in soil management practices (conventional, conservational), soil properties (organic matter content, texture, soil moisture), and topography (slope, elevation) in order to identify predictors for earthworm occurrence, abundance and biomass. Our earthworm distribution models consider all ecological groups as well as different life stages, accounting for the fact that the activity of juveniles is sometimes different from those of adults. Within our BIOPORE-project it is our final goal to couple our distribution models with population dynamic models and a preferential flow model to an integrated ecohydrological model to analyse feedbacks between earthworm engineering and transport characteristics affecting the functioning of (agro-) ecosystems.

Evolutionary dynamics of taxonomic structure

PubMed Central

Foote, Michael

2012-01-01

The distribution of species among genera and higher taxa has largely untapped potential to reveal among-clade variation in rates of origination and extinction. The probability distribution of the number of species within a genus is modelled with a stochastic, time-homogeneous birth–death model having two parameters: the rate of species extinction, μ, and the rate of genus origination, γ, each scaled as a multiple of the rate of within-genus speciation, λ. The distribution is more sensitive to γ than to μ, although μ affects the size of the largest genera. The species : genus ratio depends strongly on both γ and μ, and so is not a good diagnostic of evolutionary dynamics. The proportion of monotypic genera, however, depends mainly on γ, and so may provide an index of the genus origination rate. Application to living marine molluscs of New Zealand shows that bivalves have a higher relative rate of genus origination than gastropods. This is supported by the analysis of palaeontological data. This concordance suggests that analysis of living taxonomic distributions may allow inference of macroevolutionary dynamics even without a fossil record. PMID:21865239

a New Dynamic Community Model for Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Zhe-Ming; Wu, Zhen; Guo, Shi-Ze; Chen, Zhe; Song, Guang-Hua

2014-09-01

In this paper, based on the phenomenon that individuals join into and jump from the organizations in the society, we propose a dynamic community model to construct social networks. Two parameters are adopted in our model, one is the communication rate Pa that denotes the connection strength in the organization and the other is the turnover rate Pb, that stands for the frequency of jumping among the organizations. Based on simulations, we analyze not only the degree distribution, the clustering coefficient, the average distance and the network diameter but also the group distribution which is closely related to their community structure. Moreover, we discover that the networks generated by the proposed model possess the small-world property and can well reproduce the networks of social contacts.

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE PAGES

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-04-23

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

A Nonlinear Mixed Effects Approach for Modeling the Cell-To-Cell Variability of Mig1 Dynamics in Yeast

PubMed Central

Almquist, Joachim; Bendrioua, Loubna; Adiels, Caroline Beck; Goksör, Mattias; Hohmann, Stefan; Jirstrand, Mats

2015-01-01

The last decade has seen a rapid development of experimental techniques that allow data collection from individual cells. These techniques have enabled the discovery and characterization of variability within a population of genetically identical cells. Nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) modeling is an established framework for studying variability between individuals in a population, frequently used in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, but its potential for studies of cell-to-cell variability in molecular cell biology is yet to be exploited. Here we take advantage of this novel application of NLME modeling to study cell-to-cell variability in the dynamic behavior of the yeast transcription repressor Mig1. In particular, we investigate a recently discovered phenomenon where Mig1 during a short and transient period exits the nucleus when cells experience a shift from high to intermediate levels of extracellular glucose. A phenomenological model based on ordinary differential equations describing the transient dynamics of nuclear Mig1 is introduced, and according to the NLME methodology the parameters of this model are in turn modeled by a multivariate probability distribution. Using time-lapse microscopy data from nearly 200 cells, we estimate this parameter distribution according to the approach of maximizing the population likelihood. Based on the estimated distribution, parameter values for individual cells are furthermore characterized and the resulting Mig1 dynamics are compared to the single cell times-series data. The proposed NLME framework is also compared to the intuitive but limited standard two-stage (STS) approach. We demonstrate that the latter may overestimate variabilities by up to almost five fold. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations of the inferred population model are used to predict the distribution of key characteristics of the Mig1 transient response. We find that with decreasing levels of post-shift glucose, the transient response of Mig1 tend to be faster, more extended, and displays an increased cell-to-cell variability. PMID:25893847

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. Methods An epidemic is characterized trough an individual–based–model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. Results A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. Conclusions The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease. PMID:24725804

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach.

PubMed

López, Leonardo; Burguerner, Germán; Giovanini, Leonardo

2014-04-12

The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. An epidemic is characterized trough an individual-based-model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease.

Competing opinions and stubborness: Connecting models to data.

PubMed

Burghardt, Keith; Rand, William; Girvan, Michelle

2016-03-01

We introduce a general contagionlike model for competing opinions that includes dynamic resistance to alternative opinions. We show that this model can describe candidate vote distributions, spatial vote correlations, and a slow approach to opinion consensus with sensible parameter values. These empirical properties of large group dynamics, previously understood using distinct models, may be different aspects of human behavior that can be captured by a more unified model, such as the one introduced in this paper.

Tuning Fractures With Dynamic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Mengbi; Chang, Haibin; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Dongxiao

2018-02-01

Flow in fractured porous media is crucial for production of oil/gas reservoirs and exploitation of geothermal energy. Flow behaviors in such media are mainly dictated by the distribution of fractures. Measuring and inferring the distribution of fractures is subject to large uncertainty, which, in turn, leads to great uncertainty in the prediction of flow behaviors. Inverse modeling with dynamic data may assist to constrain fracture distributions, thus reducing the uncertainty of flow prediction. However, inverse modeling for flow in fractured reservoirs is challenging, owing to the discrete and non-Gaussian distribution of fractures, as well as strong nonlinearity in the relationship between flow responses and model parameters. In this work, building upon a series of recent advances, an inverse modeling approach is proposed to efficiently update the flow model to match the dynamic data while retaining geological realism in the distribution of fractures. In the approach, the Hough-transform method is employed to parameterize non-Gaussian fracture fields with continuous parameter fields, thus rendering desirable properties required by many inverse modeling methods. In addition, a recently developed forward simulation method, the embedded discrete fracture method (EDFM), is utilized to model the fractures. The EDFM maintains computational efficiency while preserving the ability to capture the geometrical details of fractures because the matrix is discretized as structured grid, while the fractures being handled as planes are inserted into the matrix grids. The combination of Hough representation of fractures with the EDFM makes it possible to tune the fractures (through updating their existence, location, orientation, length, and other properties) without requiring either unstructured grids or regridding during updating. Such a treatment is amenable to numerous inverse modeling approaches, such as the iterative inverse modeling method employed in this study, which is capable of dealing with strongly nonlinear problems. A series of numerical case studies with increasing complexity are set up to examine the performance of the proposed approach.

Modeling the heterogeneity of human dynamics based on the measurements of influential users in Sina Microblog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chenxu; Guan, Xiaohong; Qin, Tao; Yang, Tao

2015-06-01

Online social network has become an indispensable communication tool in the information age. The development of microblog also provides us a great opportunity to study human dynamics that play a crucial role in the design of efficient communication systems. In this paper we study the characteristics of the tweeting behavior based on the data collected from Sina Microblog. The user activity level is measured to characterize how often a user posts a tweet. We find that the user activity level follows a bimodal distribution. That is, the microblog users tend to be either active or inactive. The inter-tweeting time distribution is then measured at both the aggregate and individual levels. We find that the inter-tweeting time follows a piecewise power law distribution of two tails. Furthermore, the exponents of the two tails have different correlations with the user activity level. These findings demonstrate that the dynamics of the tweeting behavior are heterogeneous in different time scales. We then develop a dynamic model co-driven by the memory and the interest mechanism to characterize the heterogeneity. The numerical simulations validate the model and verify that the short time interval tweeting behavior is driven by the memory mechanism while the long time interval behavior by the interest mechanism.

The effect of EIF dynamics on the cryopreservation process of a size distributed cell population.

PubMed

Fadda, S; Briesen, H; Cincotti, A

2011-06-01

Typical mathematical modeling of cryopreservation of cell suspensions assumes a thermodynamic equilibrium between the ice and liquid water in the extracellular solution. This work investigates the validity of this assumption by introducing a population balance approach for dynamic extracellular ice formation (EIF) in the absence of any cryo-protectant agent (CPA). The population balance model reflects nucleation and diffusion-limited growth in the suspending solution whose driving forces are evaluated in the relevant phase diagram. This population balance description of the extracellular compartment has been coupled to a model recently proposed in the literature [Fadda et al., AIChE Journal, 56, 2173-2185, (2010)], which is capable of quantitatively describing and predicting internal ice formation (IIF) inside the cells. The cells are characterized by a size distribution (i.e. through another population balance), thus overcoming the classic view of a population of identically sized cells. From the comparison of the system behavior in terms of the dynamics of the cell size distribution it can be concluded that the assumption of a thermodynamic equilibrium in the extracellular compartment is not always justified. Depending on the cooling rate, the dynamics of EIF needs to be considered. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cluster-based control of a separating flow over a smoothly contoured ramp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, Eurika; Noack, Bernd R.; Spohn, Andreas; Cattafesta, Louis N.; Morzyński, Marek

2017-12-01

The ability to manipulate and control fluid flows is of great importance in many scientific and engineering applications. The proposed closed-loop control framework addresses a key issue of model-based control: The actuation effect often results from slow dynamics of strongly nonlinear interactions which the flow reveals at timescales much longer than the prediction horizon of any model. Hence, we employ a probabilistic approach based on a cluster-based discretization of the Liouville equation for the evolution of the probability distribution. The proposed methodology frames high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamics into low-dimensional, probabilistic, linear dynamics which considerably simplifies the optimal control problem while preserving nonlinear actuation mechanisms. The data-driven approach builds upon a state space discretization using a clustering algorithm which groups kinematically similar flow states into a low number of clusters. The temporal evolution of the probability distribution on this set of clusters is then described by a control-dependent Markov model. This Markov model can be used as predictor for the ergodic probability distribution for a particular control law. This probability distribution approximates the long-term behavior of the original system on which basis the optimal control law is determined. We examine how the approach can be used to improve the open-loop actuation in a separating flow dominated by Kelvin-Helmholtz shedding. For this purpose, the feature space, in which the model is learned, and the admissible control inputs are tailored to strongly oscillatory flows.

Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity.

PubMed

Ratkiewicz, Jacob; Fortunato, Santo; Flammini, Alessandro; Menczer, Filippo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-10-08

Online popularity has an enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems: the Wikipedia and an entire country's Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and interevent time. We propose a minimal model combining the classic preferential popularity increase mechanism with the occurrence of random popularity shifts due to exogenous factors. The model recovers the critical features observed in the empirical analysis of the systems analyzed here, highlighting the key factors needed in the description of popularity dynamics.

Integrating satellite actual evapotranspiration patterns into distributed model parametrization and evaluation for a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, M. C.; Mai, J.; Stisen, S.; Mendiguren González, G.; Koch, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

2016-12-01

Distributed hydrologic models are traditionally calibrated and evaluated against observations of streamflow. Spatially distributed remote sensing observations offer a great opportunity to enhance spatial model calibration schemes. For that it is important to identify the model parameters that can change spatial patterns before the satellite based hydrologic model calibration. Our study is based on two main pillars: first we use spatial sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters controlling the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET). Second, we investigate the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). This distributed model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the calibration of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) directly as input. In addition the simulated AET can be estimated at the spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed using MODIS data. We introduce a new dynamic scaling function employing remotely sensed vegetation to downscale coarse reference evapotranspiration. In total, 17 parameters of 47 mHM parameters are identified using both sequential screening and Latin hypercube one-at-a-time sampling methods. The spatial patterns are found to be sensitive to the vegetation parameters whereas streamflow dynamics are sensitive to the PTF parameters. The results of multi-objective model calibration show that calibration of mHM against observed streamflow does not reduce the spatial errors in AET while they improve only the streamflow simulations. We will further examine the results of model calibration using only multi spatial objective functions measuring the association between observed AET and simulated AET maps and another case including spatial and streamflow metrics together.

Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

2009-01-01

The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

The pitch-heave dynamics of transportation vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, L. M.; Richardson, H. H.

1975-01-01

The analysis and design of suspensions for vehicles of finite length using pitch-heave models is presented. Dynamic models for the finite length vehicle include the spatial distribution of the guideway input disturbance over the vehicle length, as well as both pitch and heave degrees-of-freedom. Analytical results relate the vehicle front and rear accelerations to the pitch and heave natural frequencies, which are functions of vehicle suspension geometry and mass distribution. The effects of vehicle asymmetry and suspension contact area are evaluated. Design guidelines are presented for the modification of vehicle and suspension parameters to meet alternative ride quality criteria.

Dynamic Evolution Model Based on Social Network Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Xi; Gou, Zhi-Jian; Zhang, Shi-Bin; Zhao, Wen

2013-11-01

Based on the analysis of evolutionary characteristics of public opinion in social networking services (SNS), in the paper we propose a dynamic evolution model, in which opinions are coupled with topology. This model shows the clustering phenomenon of opinions in dynamic network evolution. The simulation results show that the model can fit the data from a social network site. The dynamic evolution of networks accelerates the opinion, separation and aggregation. The scale and the number of clusters are influenced by confidence limit and rewiring probability. Dynamic changes of the topology reduce the number of isolated nodes, while the increased confidence limit allows nodes to communicate more sufficiently. The two effects make the distribution of opinion more neutral. The dynamic evolution of networks generates central clusters with high connectivity and high betweenness, which make it difficult to control public opinions in SNS.

Diffusive and Arrestedlike Dynamics in Currency Exchange Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clara-Rahola, J.; Puertas, A. M.; Sánchez-Granero, M. A.; Trinidad-Segovia, J. E.; de las Nieves, F. J.

2017-02-01

This work studies the symmetry between colloidal dynamics and the dynamics of the Euro-U.S. dollar currency exchange market (EURUSD). We consider the EURUSD price in the time range between 2001 and 2015, where we find significant qualitative symmetry between fluctuation distributions from this market and the ones belonging to colloidal particles in supercooled or arrested states. In particular, we find that models used for arrested physical systems are suitable for describing the EURUSD fluctuation distributions. Whereas the corresponding mean-squared price displacement (MSPD) to the EURUSD is diffusive for all years, when focusing in selected time frames within a day, we find a two-step MSPD when the New York Stock Exchange market closes, comparable to the dynamics in supercooled systems. This is corroborated by looking at the price correlation functions and non-Gaussian parameters and can be described by the theoretical model. We discuss the origin and implications of this analogy.

Shape Distributions of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems for Video-Based Inference.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Vinay; Turaga, Pavan

2016-12-01

This paper presents a shape-theoretic framework for dynamical analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems which appear frequently in several video-based inference tasks. Traditional approaches to dynamical modeling have included linear and nonlinear methods with their respective drawbacks. A novel approach we propose is the use of descriptors of the shape of the dynamical attractor as a feature representation of nature of dynamics. The proposed framework has two main advantages over traditional approaches: a) representation of the dynamical system is derived directly from the observational data, without any inherent assumptions, and b) the proposed features show stability under different time-series lengths where traditional dynamical invariants fail. We illustrate our idea using nonlinear dynamical models such as Lorenz and Rossler systems, where our feature representations (shape distribution) support our hypothesis that the local shape of the reconstructed phase space can be used as a discriminative feature. Our experimental analyses on these models also indicate that the proposed framework show stability for different time-series lengths, which is useful when the available number of samples are small/variable. The specific applications of interest in this paper are: 1) activity recognition using motion capture and RGBD sensors, 2) activity quality assessment for applications in stroke rehabilitation, and 3) dynamical scene classification. We provide experimental validation through action and gesture recognition experiments on motion capture and Kinect datasets. In all these scenarios, we show experimental evidence of the favorable properties of the proposed representation.

Construction and identification of a D-Vine model applied to the probability distribution of modal parameters in structural dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubreuil, S.; Salaün, M.; Rodriguez, E.; Petitjean, F.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the construction and identification of the probability distribution of random modal parameters (natural frequencies and effective parameters) in structural dynamics. As these parameters present various types of dependence structures, the retained approach is based on pair copula construction (PCC). A literature review leads us to choose a D-Vine model for the construction of modal parameters probability distributions. Identification of this model is based on likelihood maximization which makes it sensitive to the dimension of the distribution, namely the number of considered modes in our context. To this respect, a mode selection preprocessing step is proposed. It allows the selection of the relevant random modes for a given transfer function. The second point, addressed in this study, concerns the choice of the D-Vine model. Indeed, D-Vine model is not uniquely defined. Two strategies are proposed and compared. The first one is based on the context of the study whereas the second one is purely based on statistical considerations. Finally, the proposed approaches are numerically studied and compared with respect to their capabilities, first in the identification of the probability distribution of random modal parameters and second in the estimation of the 99 % quantiles of some transfer functions.

Atomistic simulations of TeO₂-based glasses: interatomic potentials and molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Gulenko, Anastasia; Masson, Olivier; Berghout, Abid; Hamani, David; Thomas, Philippe

2014-07-21

In this work we present for the first time empirical interatomic potentials that are able to reproduce TeO2-based systems. Using these potentials in classical molecular dynamics simulations, we obtained first results for the pure TeO2 glass structure model. The calculated pair distribution function is in good agreement with the experimental one, which indicates a realistic glass structure model. We investigated the short- and medium-range TeO2 glass structures. The local environment of the Te atom strongly varies, so that the glass structure model has a broad Q polyhedral distribution. The glass network is described as weakly connected with a large number of terminal oxygen atoms.

New Perspectives: Wave Mechanical Interpretations of Dark Matter, Baryon and Dark Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Esra

We model the cosmic components: dark matter, dark energy and baryon distributions in the Cosmic Web by means of highly nonlinear Schrodinger type and reaction diffusion type wave mechanical descriptions. The construction of these wave mechanical models of the structure formation is achieved by introducing the Fisher information measure and its comparison with highly nonlinear term which has dynamical analogy to infamous quantum potential in the wave equations. Strikingly, the comparison of this nonlinear term and the Fisher information measure provides a dynamical distinction between lack of self-organization and self-organization in the dynamical evolution of the cosmic components. Mathematically equivalent to the standard cosmic fluid equations, these approaches make it possible to follow the evolution of the matter distribution even into the highly nonlinear regime by circumventing singularities. Also, numerical realizations of the emerging web-like patterns are presented from the nonlinear dynamics of the baryon component while dark energy component shows Gaussian type dynamics corresponding to soliton-like solutions.

On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.

2009-02-01

Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x < 0 and the right part R(x) for x > 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.

Studies of turbulence models in a computational fluid dynamics model of a blood pump.

PubMed

Song, Xinwei; Wood, Houston G; Day, Steven W; Olsen, Don B

2003-10-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used widely in design of rotary blood pumps. The choice of turbulence model is not obvious and plays an important role on the accuracy of CFD predictions. TASCflow (ANSYS Inc., Canonsburg, PA, U.S.A.) has been used to perform CFD simulations of blood flow in a centrifugal left ventricular assist device; a k-epsilon model with near-wall functions was used in the initial numerical calculation. To improve the simulation, local grids with special distribution to ensure the k-omega model were used. Iterations have been performed to optimize the grid distribution and turbulence modeling and to predict flow performance more accurately comparing to experimental data. A comparison of k-omega model and experimental measurements of the flow field obtained by particle image velocimetry shows better agreement than k-epsilon model does, especially in the near-wall regions.

Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

2017-12-01

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

Evaluating the Classical Versus an Emerging Conceptual Model of Peatland Methane Dynamics

Treesearch

Wendy H. Yang; Gavin McNicol; Yit Arn Teh; Katerina Estera-Molina; Tana E. Wood; Whendee L. Silver

2017-01-01

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas that is both produced and consumed in soils by microbially mediated processes sensitive to soil redox. We evaluated the classical conceptual model of peatland CH4 dynamics—in which the water table position determines the vertical distribution of methanogenesis and methanotrophy—...

Molecular dynamics of conformational substates for a simplified protein model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grubmüller, Helmut; Tavan, Paul

1994-09-01

Extended molecular dynamics simulations covering a total of 0.232 μs have been carried out on a simplified protein model. Despite its simplified structure, that model exhibits properties similar to those of more realistic protein models. In particular, the model was found to undergo transitions between conformational substates at a time scale of several hundred picoseconds. The computed trajectories turned out to be sufficiently long as to permit a statistical analysis of that conformational dynamics. To check whether effective descriptions neglecting memory effects can reproduce the observed conformational dynamics, two stochastic models were studied. A one-dimensional Langevin effective potential model derived by elimination of subpicosecond dynamical processes could not describe the observed conformational transition rates. In contrast, a simple Markov model describing the transitions between but neglecting dynamical processes within conformational substates reproduced the observed distribution of first passage times. These findings suggest, that protein dynamics generally does not exhibit memory effects at time scales above a few hundred picoseconds, but confirms the existence of memory effects at a picosecond time scale.

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mook, D. Joseph

1988-01-01

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

A simple approximation of moments of the quasi-equilibrium distribution of an extended stochastic theta-logistic model with non-integer powers.

PubMed

Bhowmick, Amiya Ranjan; Bandyopadhyay, Subhadip; Rana, Sourav; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi

2016-01-01

The stochastic versions of the logistic and extended logistic growth models are applied successfully to explain many real-life population dynamics and share a central body of literature in stochastic modeling of ecological systems. To understand the randomness in the population dynamics of the underlying processes completely, it is important to have a clear idea about the quasi-equilibrium distribution and its moments. Bartlett et al. (1960) took a pioneering attempt for estimating the moments of the quasi-equilibrium distribution of the stochastic logistic model. Matis and Kiffe (1996) obtain a set of more accurate and elegant approximations for the mean, variance and skewness of the quasi-equilibrium distribution of the same model using cumulant truncation method. The method is extended for stochastic power law logistic family by the same and several other authors (Nasell, 2003; Singh and Hespanha, 2007). Cumulant truncation and some alternative methods e.g. saddle point approximation, derivative matching approach can be applied if the powers involved in the extended logistic set up are integers, although plenty of evidence is available for non-integer powers in many practical situations (Sibly et al., 2005). In this paper, we develop a set of new approximations for mean, variance and skewness of the quasi-equilibrium distribution under more general family of growth curves, which is applicable for both integer and non-integer powers. The deterministic counterpart of this family of models captures both monotonic and non-monotonic behavior of the per capita growth rate, of which theta-logistic is a special case. The approximations accurately estimate the first three order moments of the quasi-equilibrium distribution. The proposed method is illustrated with simulated data and real data from global population dynamics database. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Dynamic Model of Mercury's Magnetospheric Magnetic Field

PubMed Central

Johnson, Catherine L.; Philpott, Lydia; Tsyganenko, Nikolai A.; Anderson, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Mercury's solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field environment is highly dynamic, and variations in these external conditions directly control the current systems and magnetic fields inside the planetary magnetosphere. We update our previous static model of Mercury's magnetic field by incorporating variations in the magnetospheric current systems, parameterized as functions of Mercury's heliocentric distance and magnetic activity. The new, dynamic model reproduces the location of the magnetopause current system as a function of systematic pressure variations encountered during Mercury's eccentric orbit, as well as the increase in the cross‐tail current intensity with increasing magnetic activity. Despite the enhancements in the external field parameterization, the residuals between the observed and modeled magnetic field inside the magnetosphere indicate that the dynamic model achieves only a modest overall improvement over the previous static model. The spatial distribution of the residuals in the magnetic field components shows substantial improvement of the model accuracy near the dayside magnetopause. Elsewhere, the large‐scale distribution of the residuals is similar to those of the static model. This result implies either that magnetic activity varies much faster than can be determined from the spacecraft's passage through the magnetosphere or that the residual fields are due to additional external current systems not represented in the model or both. Birkeland currents flowing along magnetic field lines between the magnetosphere and planetary high‐latitude regions have been identified as one such contribution. PMID:29263560

Distributed Learning, Recognition, and Prediction by ART and ARTMAP Neural Networks.

PubMed

Carpenter, Gail A.

1997-11-01

A class of adaptive resonance theory (ART) models for learning, recognition, and prediction with arbitrarily distributed code representations is introduced. Distributed ART neural networks combine the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multilayer perceptrons. With a winner-take-all code, the unsupervised model dART reduces to fuzzy ART and the supervised model dARTMAP reduces to fuzzy ARTMAP. With a distributed code, these networks automatically apportion learned changes according to the degree of activation of each coding node, which permits fast as well as slow learning without catastrophic forgetting. Distributed ART models replace the traditional neural network path weight with a dynamic weight equal to the rectified difference between coding node activation and an adaptive threshold. Thresholds increase monotonically during learning according to a principle of atrophy due to disuse. However, monotonic change at the synaptic level manifests itself as bidirectional change at the dynamic level, where the result of adaptation resembles long-term potentiation (LTP) for single-pulse or low frequency test inputs but can resemble long-term depression (LTD) for higher frequency test inputs. This paradoxical behavior is traced to dual computational properties of phasic and tonic coding signal components. A parallel distributed match-reset-search process also helps stabilize memory. Without the match-reset-search system, dART becomes a type of distributed competitive learning network.

An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Esslinger, George G.; Bower, Michael R.; Hefley, Trevor J.

2017-01-01

Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska.

Dynamic optimization of distributed biological systems using robust and efficient numerical techniques.

PubMed

Vilas, Carlos; Balsa-Canto, Eva; García, Maria-Sonia G; Banga, Julio R; Alonso, Antonio A

2012-07-02

Systems biology allows the analysis of biological systems behavior under different conditions through in silico experimentation. The possibility of perturbing biological systems in different manners calls for the design of perturbations to achieve particular goals. Examples would include, the design of a chemical stimulation to maximize the amplitude of a given cellular signal or to achieve a desired pattern in pattern formation systems, etc. Such design problems can be mathematically formulated as dynamic optimization problems which are particularly challenging when the system is described by partial differential equations.This work addresses the numerical solution of such dynamic optimization problems for spatially distributed biological systems. The usual nonlinear and large scale nature of the mathematical models related to this class of systems and the presence of constraints on the optimization problems, impose a number of difficulties, such as the presence of suboptimal solutions, which call for robust and efficient numerical techniques. Here, the use of a control vector parameterization approach combined with efficient and robust hybrid global optimization methods and a reduced order model methodology is proposed. The capabilities of this strategy are illustrated considering the solution of a two challenging problems: bacterial chemotaxis and the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. In the process of chemotaxis the objective was to efficiently compute the time-varying optimal concentration of chemotractant in one of the spatial boundaries in order to achieve predefined cell distribution profiles. Results are in agreement with those previously published in the literature. The FitzHugh-Nagumo problem is also efficiently solved and it illustrates very well how dynamic optimization may be used to force a system to evolve from an undesired to a desired pattern with a reduced number of actuators. The presented methodology can be used for the efficient dynamic optimization of generic distributed biological systems.

Dynamics of a stochastic HIV-1 infection model with logistic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Daqing; Liu, Qun; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Xia, Peiyan

2017-03-01

This paper is concerned with a stochastic HIV-1 infection model with logistic growth. Firstly, by constructing suitable stochastic Lyapunov functions, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of ergodic stationary distribution of the solution to the HIV-1 infection model. Then we obtain sufficient conditions for extinction of the infection. The stationary distribution shows that the infection can become persistent in vivo.

Anomalous Diffusion in a Trading Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khidzir, Sidiq Mohamad; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin

2009-07-01

The result of the trading model by Chakrabarti et al. [1] is the wealth distribution with a mixed exponential and power law distribution. Based on the motivation of studying the dynamics behind the flow of money similar to work done by Brockmann [2, 3] we track the flow of money in this trading model to observe anomalous diffusion in the form of long waiting times and Levy Flights.

Effects of random tooth profile errors on the dynamic behaviors of planetary gears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xun, Chao; Long, Xinhua; Hua, Hongxing

2018-02-01

In this paper, a nonlinear random model is built to describe the dynamics of planetary gear trains (PGTs), in which the time-varying mesh stiffness, tooth profile modification (TPM), tooth contact loss, and random tooth profile error are considered. A stochastic method based on the method of multiple scales (MMS) is extended to analyze the statistical property of the dynamic performance of PGTs. By the proposed multiple-scales based stochastic method, the distributions of the dynamic transmission errors (DTEs) are investigated, and the lower and upper bounds are determined based on the 3σ principle. Monte Carlo method is employed to verify the proposed method. Results indicate that the proposed method can be used to determine the distribution of the DTE of PGTs high efficiently and allow a link between the manufacturing precision and the dynamical response. In addition, the effects of tooth profile modification on the distributions of vibration amplitudes and the probability of tooth contact loss with different manufacturing tooth profile errors are studied. The results show that the manufacturing precision affects the distribution of dynamic transmission errors dramatically and appropriate TPMs are helpful to decrease the nominal value and the deviation of the vibration amplitudes.

Three-dimensional kinetic and fluid dynamic modeling and three iterative algorithms for side-pumped alkali vapor lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Binglin; Xu, Xingqi; Xia, Chunsheng; Pan, Bailiang

2017-11-01

Combining the kinetic and fluid dynamic processes in static and flowing-gas diode-pumped alkali vapor lasers, a comprehensive physical model with three cyclically iterative algorithms for simulating the three-dimensional pump and laser intensities as well as temperature distribution in the vapor cell of side-pumped alkali vapor lasers is established. Comparison with measurement of a static side-pumped cesium vapor laser with a diffuse type hollow cylinder cavity, and with classical and modified models is made. Influences of flowed velocity and pump power on laser power are calculated and analyzed. The results have demonstrated that for high-power side-pumped alkali vapor lasers, it is necessary to take into account the three-dimensional distributions of pump energy, laser energy and temperature in the cell to simultaneously obtain the thermal features and output characteristics. Therefore, the model can deepen the understanding of the complete kinetic and fluid dynamic mechanisms of a side-pumped alkali vapor laser, and help with its further experimental design.

Dynamical heterogeneities and mechanical non-linearities: Modeling the onset of plasticity in polymer in the glass transition.

PubMed

Masurel, R J; Gelineau, P; Lequeux, F; Cantournet, S; Montes, H

2017-12-27

In this paper we focus on the role of dynamical heterogeneities on the non-linear response of polymers in the glass transition domain. We start from a simple coarse-grained model that assumes a random distribution of the initial local relaxation times and that quantitatively describes the linear viscoelasticity of a polymer in the glass transition regime. We extend this model to non-linear mechanics assuming a local Eyring stress dependence of the relaxation times. Implementing the model in a finite element mechanics code, we derive the mechanical properties and the local mechanical fields at the beginning of the non-linear regime. The model predicts a narrowing of distribution of relaxation times and the storage of a part of the mechanical energy --internal stress-- transferred to the material during stretching in this temperature range. We show that the stress field is not spatially correlated under and after loading and follows a Gaussian distribution. In addition the strain field exhibits shear bands, but the strain distribution is narrow. Hence, most of the mechanical quantities can be calculated analytically, in a very good approximation, with the simple assumption that the strain rate is constant.

Observation of universality for high pT distribution at LHC energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabassam, U.; Ali, Y.; Ullah, S.; Ajaz, M.; Ali, Q.; Suleymanov, M.; Bhatti, A. S.; Suleymanov, R.

We have studied the distributions of the yield of primary charged particles produced in the asymmetric p-Pb collisions at sNN = 5.02TeV for the three pseudorapidity regions: 0.3 < η < 0.8, 0.8 < η < 1.3 and 1.3 < η < 1.8 and the transverse momentum range of 0.5

Incorporation of the TIP4P water model into a continuum solvent for computing solvation free energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Pei-Kun

2014-10-01

The continuum solvent model is one of the commonly used strategies to compute solvation free energy especially for large-scale conformational transitions such as protein folding or to calculate the binding affinity of protein-protein/ligand interactions. However, the dielectric polarization for computing solvation free energy from the continuum solvent is different than that obtained from molecular dynamic simulations. To mimic the dielectric polarization surrounding a solute in molecular dynamic simulations, the first-shell water molecules was modeled using a charge distribution of TIP4P in a hard sphere; the time-averaged charge distribution from the first-shell water molecules were estimated based on the coordination number of the solute, and the orientation distribution of the first-shell waters and the intermediate water molecules were treated as that of a bulk solvent. Based on this strategy, an equation describing the solvation free energy of ions was derived.

Non-monotonic spatial distribution of the interstellar dust in astrospheres: finite gyroradius effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katushkina, O. A.; Alexashov, D. B.; Izmodenov, V. V.; Gvaramadze, V. V.

2017-02-01

High-resolution mid-infrared observations of astrospheres show that many of them have filamentary (cirrus-like) structure. Using numerical models of dust dynamics in astrospheres, we suggest that their filamentary structure might be related to specific spatial distribution of the interstellar dust around the stars, caused by a gyrorotation of charged dust grains in the interstellar magnetic field. Our numerical model describes the dust dynamics in astrospheres under an influence of the Lorentz force and assumption of a constant dust charge. Calculations are performed for the dust grains with different sizes separately. It is shown that non-monotonic spatial dust distribution (viewed as filaments) appears for dust grains with the period of gyromotion comparable with the characteristic time-scale of the dust motion in the astrosphere. Numerical modelling demonstrates that the number of filaments depends on charge-to-mass ratio of dust.

Dynamic Patterns of Modern Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brockmann, Dirk; Hufnagel, Lars; Geisel, Theo

2004-03-01

We investigate the effects of scale-free travelling of humans and their inhomogeneous geographic distribution on the dynamic patterns of spreading epidemics. Our approach combines the susceptible/infected/recovered paradigm for the infection dynamics with superdiffusive dispersion of individuals and their inhomogeneous spatial distribution. We show that scale-free motion of individuals and their variable spatial distribution leads to the absence of wavefronts in dynamic epidemic patterns which are typical for the limiting cases of ordinary diffusion and spatially homogeneous populations. Instead, patterns emerge with isolated hotspots on highly populated areas from which regional epidemic outbursts are triggered. Hotspot sizes are independent of the correlation length in the spatial distribution of individuals and occur on all scales. Our theory predicts that highly populated areas are reached by an epidemic in advance and must receive special attention in control measure strategies. Furthermore, our analysis predicts strong fluctuations in the time course of the total infection which cannot be accounted for by ordinary reaction-diffusion models for epidemics.

Sediment-stabilizing and Destabilizing Ecoengineering Species from River to Estuary: the Case of the Scheldt System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selakovic, S.; Cozzoli, F.; Leuven, J.; Van Braeckel, A.; Speybroeck, J.; Kleinhans, M. G.; Bouma, T.

2017-12-01

Interactions between organisms and landscape forming processes play an important role in evolution of coastal landscapes. In particular, biota has a strong potential to interact with important geomorphological processes such as sediment dynamics. Although many studies worked towards quantifying the impact of different species groups on sediment dynamics, information has been gathered on an ad hoc base. Depending on species' traits and distribution, functional groups of ecoengineering species may have differential effects on sediment deposition and erosion. We hypothesize that the spatial distributions of sediment-stabilizing and destabilizing species across the channel and along the whole salinity gradient of an estuary partly determine the planform shape and channel-shoal morphology of estuaries. To test this hypothesis, we analyze vegetation and macrobenthic data taking the Scheldt river-estuarine continuum as model ecosystem. We identify species traits with important effects on sediment dynamics and use them to form functional groups. By using linearized mixed modelling, we are able to accurately describe the distributions of the different functional groups. We observe a clear distinction of dominant ecosystem engineering functional groups and their potential effects on the sediment in the river-estuarine continuum. The first results of longitudinal cross section show the highest effects of stabilizing plant species in riverine and sediment bioturbators in weak polyhaline part of continuum. The distribution of functional groups in transverse cross sections shows dominant stabilizing effect in supratidal zone compared to dominant destabilizing effect in the lower intertidal zone. This analysis offers a new and more general conceptualization of distributions of sediment stabilizing and destabilizing functional groups and their potential impacts on sediment dynamics, shoal patterns, and planform shapes in river-estuarine continuum. We intend to test this in future modelling and experiments.

Dynamics of assembly production flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezaki, Takahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

2015-06-01

Despite recent developments in management theory, maintaining a manufacturing schedule remains difficult because of production delays and fluctuations in demand and supply of materials. The response of manufacturing systems to such disruptions to dynamic behavior has been rarely studied. To capture these responses, we investigate a process that models the assembly of parts into end products. The complete assembly process is represented by a directed tree, where the smallest parts are injected at leaves and the end products are removed at the root. A discrete assembly process, represented by a node on the network, integrates parts, which are then sent to the next downstream node as a single part. The model exhibits some intriguing phenomena, including overstock cascade, phase transition in terms of demand and supply fluctuations, nonmonotonic distribution of stockout in the network, and the formation of a stockout path and stockout chains. Surprisingly, these rich phenomena result from only the nature of distributed assembly processes. From a physical perspective, these phenomena provide insight into delay dynamics and inventory distributions in large-scale manufacturing systems.

Distributed collaborative probabilistic design for turbine blade-tip radial running clearance using support vector machine of regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Cheng-Wei; Bai, Guang-Chen

2014-12-01

To improve the computational precision and efficiency of probabilistic design for mechanical dynamic assembly like the blade-tip radial running clearance (BTRRC) of gas turbine, a distribution collaborative probabilistic design method-based support vector machine of regression (SR)(called as DCSRM) is proposed by integrating distribution collaborative response surface method and support vector machine regression model. The mathematical model of DCSRM is established and the probabilistic design idea of DCSRM is introduced. The dynamic assembly probabilistic design of aeroengine high-pressure turbine (HPT) BTRRC is accomplished to verify the proposed DCSRM. The analysis results reveal that the optimal static blade-tip clearance of HPT is gained for designing BTRRC, and improving the performance and reliability of aeroengine. The comparison of methods shows that the DCSRM has high computational accuracy and high computational efficiency in BTRRC probabilistic analysis. The present research offers an effective way for the reliability design of mechanical dynamic assembly and enriches mechanical reliability theory and method.

Decoupled ARX and RBF Neural Network Modeling Using PCA and GA Optimization for Nonlinear Distributed Parameter Systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Ridong; Tao, Jili; Lu, Renquan; Jin, Qibing

2018-02-01

Modeling of distributed parameter systems is difficult because of their nonlinearity and infinite-dimensional characteristics. Based on principal component analysis (PCA), a hybrid modeling strategy that consists of a decoupled linear autoregressive exogenous (ARX) model and a nonlinear radial basis function (RBF) neural network model are proposed. The spatial-temporal output is first divided into a few dominant spatial basis functions and finite-dimensional temporal series by PCA. Then, a decoupled ARX model is designed to model the linear dynamics of the dominant modes of the time series. The nonlinear residual part is subsequently parameterized by RBFs, where genetic algorithm is utilized to optimize their hidden layer structure and the parameters. Finally, the nonlinear spatial-temporal dynamic system is obtained after the time/space reconstruction. Simulation results of a catalytic rod and a heat conduction equation demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy compared to several other methods.

On the simple random-walk models of ion-channel gate dynamics reflecting long-term memory.

PubMed

Wawrzkiewicz, Agata; Pawelek, Krzysztof; Borys, Przemyslaw; Dworakowska, Beata; Grzywna, Zbigniew J

2012-06-01

Several approaches to ion-channel gating modelling have been proposed. Although many models describe the dwell-time distributions correctly, they are incapable of predicting and explaining the long-term correlations between the lengths of adjacent openings and closings of a channel. In this paper we propose two simple random-walk models of the gating dynamics of voltage and Ca(2+)-activated potassium channels which qualitatively reproduce the dwell-time distributions, and describe the experimentally observed long-term memory quite well. Biological interpretation of both models is presented. In particular, the origin of the correlations is associated with fluctuations of channel mass density. The long-term memory effect, as measured by Hurst R/S analysis of experimental single-channel patch-clamp recordings, is close to the behaviour predicted by our models. The flexibility of the models enables their use as templates for other types of ion channel.

Numerical modelling of distributed vibration sensor based on phase-sensitive OTDR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoudi, A.; Newson, T. P.

2017-04-01

A Distributed Vibration Sensor Based on Phase-Sensitive OTDR is numerically modeled. The advantage of modeling the building blocks of the sensor individually and combining the blocks to analyse the behavior of the sensing system is discussed. It is shown that the numerical model can accurately imitate the response of the experimental setup to dynamic perturbations a signal processing procedure similar to that used to extract the phase information from sensing setup.

Optimal Dynamics of Intermittent Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, Anna; Wilkening, Jon; Rycroft, Chris

2014-11-01

In many urban areas of the developing world, piped water is supplied only intermittently, as valves direct water to different parts of the water distribution system at different times. The flow is transient, and may transition between free-surface and pressurized, resulting in complex dynamical features with important consequences for water suppliers and users. These consequences include degradation of distribution system components, compromised water quality, and inequitable water availability. The goal of this work is to model the important dynamics and identify operating conditions that mitigate certain negative effects of intermittent water supply. Specifically, we will look at valve parameters occurring as boundary conditions in a network model of transient, transition flow through closed pipes. Optimization will be used to find boundary values to minimize pressure gradients and ensure equitable water availability.

Optimal control of a rabies epidemic model with a birth pulse.

PubMed

Clayton, Tim; Duke-Sylvester, Scott; Gross, Louis J; Lenhart, Suzanne; Real, Leslie A

2010-01-01

A system of ordinary differential equations describes the population dynamics of a rabies epidemic in raccoons. The model accounts for the dynamics of a vaccine, including loss of vaccine due to animal consumption and loss from factors other than racoon uptake. A control method to reduce the spread of disease is introduced through temporal distribution of vaccine packets. This work incorporates the effect of the seasonal birth pulse in the racoon population and the attendant increase in new-borns which are susceptible to the diseases, analysing the impact of the timing and length of this pulse on the optimal distribution of vaccine packets. The optimization criterion is to minimize the number of infected raccoons while minimizing the cost of distributing the vaccine. Using an optimal control setting, numerical results illustrate strategies for distributing the vaccine depending on the timing of the infection outbreak with respect to the birth pulse.

Optimal Control of a Rabies Epidemic Model with a Birth Pulse

PubMed Central

Clayton, Tim; Duke-Sylvester, Scott; Gross, Louis J.; Lenhart, Suzanne; Real, Leslie A.

2011-01-01

A system of ordinary differential equations describes the populuation dynamics of a rabies epidemic in raccoons. The model accounts for the dynamics of vaccine, including loss of vaccine due to animal consumption and loss from factors other than racoon uptake. A control method to reduce the spread of disease is introduced through temporal distribution of vaccine packets. This work incorporates the effect of the seasonal birth pulse in the racoon population and the attendant increase in new-borns which are susceptible to the diseases, analysing the impact of the timing and length of this pulse on the optimal distribution of vaccine packets. The optimization criterion is to minimize the number of infected raccoons while minimizing the cost of distributing the vaccine. Using an optimal control setting, numerical results illustrate strategies for distributing vaccine depending on the timing of the infection outbreak with respect to the birth pulse. PMID:21423822

Analysis of the cycle-to-cycle pressure distribution variations in dynamic stall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harms, Tanner; Nikoueeyan, Pourya; Naughton, Jonathan

2017-11-01

Dynamic stall is an unsteady flow phenomenon observed on blades and wings that, despite decades of focused study, remains a challenging problem for rotorcraft and wind turbine applications. Traditionally, dynamic stall has been studied on pitch-oscillating airfoils by measuring the unsteady pressure distribution that is phase-averaged, by which the typical flow pattern may be observed and quantified. In cases where light to deep dynamic stall are observed, pressure distributions with high levels of variance are present in regions of separation. It was recently observed that, under certain conditions, this scatter may be the result of a two-state flow solution - as if there were a bifurcation in the unsteady pressure distribution behavior on the suction side of the airfoil. This is significant since phase-averaged dynamic stall data are often used to tune dynamic stall models and for validation of simulations of dynamic stall. In order to better understand this phenomenon, statistical analysis of the pressure data using probability density functions (PDFs) and other statistical approaches has been carried out for the SC 1094R8, DU97-W-300, and NACA 0015 airfoil geometries. This work uses airfoil data acquired under Army contract W911W60160C-0021, DOE Grant DE-SC0001261, and a gift from BP Alternative Energy North America, Inc.

Modelling of air flow supply in a room at variable regime by using both K - E and spalart - allmaras turbulent model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korbut, Vadim; Voznyak, Orest; Sukholova, Iryna; Myroniuk, Khrystyna

2017-12-01

The abstract is to The article is devoted to the decision of actual task of air distribution efficiency increasing with the help of swirl and spread air jets to provide normative parameters of air in the production apartments. The mathematical model of air supply with swirl and spread air jets in that type of apartments is improved. It is shown that for reachin of air distribution maximal efficiency it is necessary to supply air by air jets, that intensively extinct before entering into a working area. Simulation of air flow performed with the help of CFD FLUENT (Ansys FLUENT). Calculations of the equation by using one-parameter model of turbulence Spalart-Allmaras are presented. The graphical and the analytical dependences on the basis of the conducted experimental researches, which can be used in subsequent engineering calculations, are shown out. Dynamic parameters of air flow that is created due to swirl and spread air jets at their leakage at variable regime and creation of dynamic microclimate in a room has been determined. Results of experimental investigations of air supply into the room by air distribution device which creates swirl air jets for creation more intensive turbulization air flow in the room are presented. Obtained results of these investigations give possibility to realize engineer calculations of air distribution with swirl air jets. The results of theoretical researches of favourable influence of dynamic microclimate to the man are presented. When using dynamic microclimate, it's possible to decrease conditioning and ventilation system expenses. Human organism reacts favourably on short lasting deviations from the rationed parameters of air environment.

Dynamic cardiac PET imaging: extraction of time-activity curves using ICA and a generalized Gaussian distribution model.

PubMed

Mabrouk, Rostom; Dubeau, François; Bentabet, Layachi

2013-01-01

Kinetic modeling of metabolic and physiologic cardiac processes in small animals requires an input function (IF) and a tissue time-activity curves (TACs). In this paper, we present a mathematical method based on independent component analysis (ICA) to extract the IF and the myocardium's TACs directly from dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) images. The method assumes a super-Gaussian distribution model for the blood activity, and a sub-Gaussian distribution model for the tissue activity. Our appreach was applied on 22 PET measurement sets of small animals, which were obtained from the three most frequently used cardiac radiotracers, namely: desoxy-fluoro-glucose ((18)F-FDG), [(13)N]-ammonia, and [(11)C]-acetate. Our study was extended to PET human measurements obtained with the Rubidium-82 ((82) Rb) radiotracer. The resolved mathematical IF values compare favorably to those derived from curves extracted from regions of interest (ROI), suggesting that the procedure presents a reliable alternative to serial blood sampling for small-animal cardiac PET studies.

Generating Spatiotemporal Joint Torque Patterns from Dynamical Synchronization of Distributed Pattern Generators

PubMed Central

Pitti, Alexandre; Lungarella, Max; Kuniyoshi, Yasuo

2009-01-01

Pattern generators found in the spinal cord are no more seen as simple rhythmic oscillators for motion control. Indeed, they achieve flexible and dynamical coordination in interaction with the body and the environment dynamics giving to rise motor synergies. Discovering the mechanisms underlying the control of motor synergies constitutes an important research question not only for neuroscience but also for robotics: the motors coordination of high dimensional robotic systems is still a drawback and new control methods based on biological solutions may reduce their overall complexity. We propose to model the flexible combination of motor synergies in embodied systems via partial phase synchronization of distributed chaotic systems; for specific coupling strength, chaotic systems are able to phase synchronize their dynamics to the resonant frequencies of one external force. We take advantage of this property to explore and exploit the intrinsic dynamics of one specified embodied system. In two experiments with bipedal walkers, we show how motor synergies emerge when the controllers phase synchronize to the body's dynamics, entraining it to its intrinsic behavioral patterns. This stage is characterized by directed information flow from the sensors to the motors exhibiting the optimal situation when the body dynamics drive the controllers (mutual entrainment). Based on our results, we discuss the relevance of our findings for modeling the modular control of distributed pattern generators exhibited in the spinal cord, and for exploring the motor synergies in robots. PMID:20011216

Relation of landslides triggered by the Kiholo Bay earthquake to modeled ground motion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Hartzell, Stephen H.; Jibson, Randall W.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.; Schmitt, Robert G.

2014-01-01

The 2006 Kiholo Bay, Hawaii, earthquake triggered high concentrations of rock falls and slides in the steep canyons of the Kohala Mountains along the north coast of Hawaii. Within these mountains and canyons a complex distribution of landslides was triggered by the earthquake shaking. In parts of the area, landslides were preferentially located on east‐facing slopes, whereas in other parts of the canyons no systematic pattern prevailed with respect to slope aspect or vertical position on the slopes. The geology within the canyons is homogeneous, so we hypothesize that the variable landslide distribution is the result of localized variation in ground shaking; therefore, we used a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution ground‐motion simulation model to see if it could reproduce the landslide‐distribution patterns. We used a 3D finite‐element analysis to model earthquake shaking using a 10 m digital elevation model and slip on a finite‐fault model constructed from teleseismic records of the mainshock. Ground velocity time histories were calculated up to a frequency of 5 Hz. Dynamic shear strain also was calculated and compared with the landslide distribution. Results were mixed for the velocity simulations, with some areas showing correlation of landslide locations with peak modeled ground motions but many other areas showing no such correlation. Results were much improved for the comparison with dynamic shear strain. This suggests that (1) rock falls and slides are possibly triggered by higher frequency ground motions (velocities) than those in our simulations, (2) the ground‐motion velocity model needs more refinement, or (3) dynamic shear strain may be a more fundamental measurement of the decoupling process of slope materials during seismic shaking.

Efficient iteration in data-parallel programs with irregular and dynamically distributed data structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Littlefield, R.J.

1990-02-01

To implement an efficient data-parallel program on a non-shared memory MIMD multicomputer, data and computations must be properly partitioned to achieve good load balance and locality of reference. Programs with irregular data reference patterns often require irregular partitions. Although good partitions may be easy to determine, they can be difficult or impossible to implement in programming languages that provide only regular data distributions, such as blocked or cyclic arrays. We are developing Onyx, a programming system that provides a shared memory model of distributed data structures and extends the concept of data distribution to include irregular and dynamic distributions. Thismore » provides a powerful means to specify irregular partitions. Perhaps surprisingly, programs using it can also execute efficiently. In this paper, we describe and evaluate the Onyx implementation of a model problem that repeatedly executes an irregular but fixed data reference pattern. On an NCUBE hypercube, the speed of the Onyx implementation is comparable to that of carefully handwritten message-passing code.« less

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.

2014-09-01

The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.

Dynamical origins of the community structure of an online multi-layer society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimek, Peter; Diakonova, Marina; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; San Miguel, Maxi; Thurner, Stefan

2016-08-01

Social structures emerge as a result of individuals managing a variety of different social relationships. Societies can be represented as highly structured dynamic multiplex networks. Here we study the dynamical origins of the specific community structures of a large-scale social multiplex network of a human society that interacts in a virtual world of a massive multiplayer online game. There we find substantial differences in the community structures of different social actions, represented by the various layers in the multiplex network. Community sizes distributions are either fat-tailed or appear to be centered around a size of 50 individuals. To understand these observations we propose a voter model that is built around the principle of triadic closure. It explicitly models the co-evolution of node- and link-dynamics across different layers of the multiplex network. Depending on link and node fluctuation probabilities, the model exhibits an anomalous shattered fragmentation transition, where one layer fragments from one large component into many small components. The observed community size distributions are in good agreement with the predicted fragmentation in the model. This suggests that several detailed features of the fragmentation in societies can be traced back to the triadic closure processes.

Potential for the dynamics of pedestrians in a socially interacting group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanlungo, Francesco; Ikeda, Tetsushi; Kanda, Takayuki

2014-01-01

We introduce a simple potential to describe the dynamics of the relative motion of two pedestrians socially interacting in a walking group. We show that the proposed potential, based on basic empirical observations and theoretical considerations, can qualitatively describe the statistical properties of pedestrian behavior. In detail, we show that the two-dimensional probability distribution of the relative distance is determined by the proposed potential through a Boltzmann distribution. After calibrating the parameters of the model on the two-pedestrian group data, we apply the model to three-pedestrian groups, showing that it describes qualitatively and quantitatively well their behavior. In particular, the model predicts that three-pedestrian groups walk in a V-shaped formation and provides accurate values for the position of the three pedestrians. Furthermore, the model correctly predicts the average walking velocity of three-person groups based on the velocity of two-person ones. Possible extensions to larger groups, along with alternative explanations of the social dynamics that may be implied by our model, are discussed at the end of the paper.

Dynamical influences on thermospheric composition: implications for semi-empirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, E. K.; Solomon, S. C.

2014-12-01

The TIE-GCM was recently augmented to include helium and argon, two approximately inert species that can be used as tracers of dynamics in the thermosphere. The former species is treated as a major species due to its large abundance near the upper boundary. The effects of exospheric transport are also included in order to simulate realistic seasonal and latitudinal helium distributions. The latter species is treated as a classical minor species, imparting absolutely no forces on the background atmosphere. In this study, we examine the interplay of the various dynamical terms - i.e. background circulation, molecular and Eddy diffusion - as they drive departures from the distributions that would be expected under the assumption of diffusive equilibrium. As this has implications on the formulation of all empirical thermospheric models, we use this understanding to address the following questions: (1) how do errors caused by the assumption of diffusive equilibrium manifest within empirical models of the thermosphere? and (2) where and when does an empirical model's output disagree with its underlying datasets due to the inherent limitations of said model's formulation?

Nested Sampling for Bayesian Model Comparison in the Context of Salmonella Disease Dynamics

PubMed Central

Dybowski, Richard; McKinley, Trevelyan J.; Mastroeni, Pietro; Restif, Olivier

2013-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics of complex biological systems requires the statistical assessment and comparison of multiple alternative models. Although this has traditionally been done using maximum likelihood-based methods such as Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian methods have gained in popularity because they provide more informative output in the form of posterior probability distributions. However, comparison between multiple models in a Bayesian framework is made difficult by the computational cost of numerical integration over large parameter spaces. A new, efficient method for the computation of posterior probabilities has recently been proposed and applied to complex problems from the physical sciences. Here we demonstrate how nested sampling can be used for inference and model comparison in biological sciences. We present a reanalysis of data from experimental infection of mice with Salmonella enterica showing the distribution of bacteria in liver cells. In addition to confirming the main finding of the original analysis, which relied on AIC, our approach provides: (a) integration across the parameter space, (b) estimation of the posterior parameter distributions (with visualisations of parameter correlations), and (c) estimation of the posterior predictive distributions for goodness-of-fit assessments of the models. The goodness-of-fit results suggest that alternative mechanistic models and a relaxation of the quasi-stationary assumption should be considered. PMID:24376528

Complex systems approach to fire dynamics and climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pueyo, S.

2012-04-01

I present some recent advances in complex systems theory as a contribution to understanding fire regimes and forecasting their response to a changing climate, qualitatively and quantitatively. In many regions of the world, fire sizes have been found to follow, approximately, a power-law frequency distribution. As noted by several authors, this distribution also arises in the "forest fire" model used by physicists to study mechanisms that give rise to scale invariance (the power law is a scale-invariant distribution). However, this model does not give and does not pretend to give a realistic description of fire dynamics. For example, it gives no role to weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) developed a variant of the "forest fire" model that is also simple but attempts to be more realistic. It also results into a power law, but the parameters of this distribution change through time as a function of weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) observed similar patterns of response to weather in data from boreal forest fires, and used the fitted response functions to forecast fire size distributions in a possible climate change scenario, including the upper extreme of the distribution. For some parameter values, the model in Pueyo (2007) displays a qualitatively different behavior, consisting of simple percolation. In this case, fire is virtually absent, but megafires sweep through the ecosystem a soon as environmental forcings exceed a critical threshold. Evidence gathered by Pueyo et al. (2010) suggests that this is realistic for tropical rainforests (specifically, well-conserved upland rainforests). Some climate models suggest that major tropical rainforest regions are going to become hotter and drier if climate change goes ahead unchecked, which could cause such abrupt shifts. Not all fire regimes are well described by this model. Using data from a tropical savanna region, Pueyo et al. (2010) found that the dynamics in this area do not match its assumptions, even though fire sizes are also well fitted by a power law. A possible interpretation is that the spatial structure of fire in savannas is strongly constrained by the spatial structure of their environment. Instead of resulting from ecosystem self-organization as in the model, in this case the scale invariance in fire events would be just a reflection of scale invariance in the environment in which the ecosystem lives. These results suggest at least three major types of fire dynamics: endogenous scaling, percolating, and exogenous scaling, in addition to intermediate options. The world's biomes can be classified based on the type of dynamics that is most likely to apply in each of them, and forecasts can be carried out with the tools developed for each of these types.

Nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics in One Dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privman, Vladimir

2005-08-01

Part I. Reaction-Diffusion Systems and Models of Catalysis; 1. Scaling theories of diffusion-controlled and ballistically-controlled bimolecular reactions S. Redner; 2. The coalescence process, A+A->A, and the method of interparticle distribution functions D. ben-Avraham; 3. Critical phenomena at absorbing states R. Dickman; Part II. Kinetic Ising Models; 4. Kinetic ising models with competing dynamics: mappings, correlations, steady states, and phase transitions Z. Racz; 5. Glauber dynamics of the ising model N. Ito; 6. 1D Kinetic ising models at low temperatures - critical dynamics, domain growth, and freezing S. Cornell; Part III. Ordering, Coagulation, Phase Separation; 7. Phase-ordering dynamics in one dimension A. J. Bray; 8. Phase separation, cluster growth, and reaction kinetics in models with synchronous dynamics V. Privman; 9. Stochastic models of aggregation with injection H. Takayasu and M. Takayasu; Part IV. Random Sequential Adsorption and Relaxation Processes; 10. Random and cooperative sequential adsorption: exactly solvable problems on 1D lattices, continuum limits, and 2D extensions J. W. Evans; 11. Lattice models of irreversible adsorption and diffusion P. Nielaba; 12. Deposition-evaporation dynamics: jamming, conservation laws and dynamical diversity M. Barma; Part V. Fluctuations In Particle and Surface Systems; 13. Microscopic models of macroscopic shocks S. A. Janowsky and J. L. Lebowitz; 14. The asymmetric exclusion model: exact results through a matrix approach B. Derrida and M. R. Evans; 15. Nonequilibrium surface dynamics with volume conservation J. Krug; 16. Directed walks models of polymers and wetting J. Yeomans; Part VI. Diffusion and Transport In One Dimension; 17. Some recent exact solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation H. L. Frisch; 18. Random walks, resonance, and ratchets C. R. Doering and T. C. Elston; 19. One-dimensional random walks in random environment K. Ziegler; Part VII. Experimental Results; 20. Diffusion-limited exciton kinetics in one-dimensional systems R. Kroon and R. Sprik; 21. Experimental investigations of molecular and excitonic elementary reaction kinetics in one-dimensional systems R. Kopelman and A. L. Lin; 22. Luminescence quenching as a probe of particle distribution S. H. Bossmann and L. S. Schulman; Index.

Three-dimensional modeling of the plasma arc in arc welding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, G.; Tsai, H. L.; Hu, J.

2008-11-15

Most previous three-dimensional modeling on gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) and gas metal arc welding (GMAW) focuses on the weld pool dynamics and assumes the two-dimensional axisymmetric Gaussian distributions for plasma arc pressure and heat flux. In this article, a three-dimensional plasma arc model is developed, and the distributions of velocity, pressure, temperature, current density, and magnetic field of the plasma arc are calculated by solving the conservation equations of mass, momentum, and energy, as well as part of the Maxwell's equations. This three-dimensional model can be used to study the nonaxisymmetric plasma arc caused by external perturbations such asmore » an external magnetic field. It also provides more accurate boundary conditions when modeling the weld pool dynamics. The present work lays a foundation for true three-dimensional comprehensive modeling of GTAW and GMAW including the plasma arc, weld pool, and/or electrode.« less

Density-Dependent Regulation of Brook Trout Population Dynamics along a Core-Periphery Distribution Gradient in a Central Appalachian Watershed

PubMed Central

Huntsman, Brock M.; Petty, J. Todd

2014-01-01

Spatial population models predict strong density-dependence and relatively stable population dynamics near the core of a species' distribution with increasing variance and importance of density-independent processes operating towards the population periphery. Using a 10-year data set and an information-theoretic approach, we tested a series of candidate models considering density-dependent and density-independent controls on brook trout population dynamics across a core-periphery distribution gradient within a central Appalachian watershed. We sampled seven sub-populations with study sites ranging in drainage area from 1.3–60 km2 and long-term average densities ranging from 0.335–0.006 trout/m. Modeled response variables included per capita population growth rate of young-of-the-year, adult, and total brook trout. We also quantified a stock-recruitment relationship for the headwater population and coefficients of variability in mean trout density for all sub-populations over time. Density-dependent regulation was prevalent throughout the study area regardless of stream size. However, density-independent temperature models carried substantial weight and likely reflect the effect of year-to-year variability in water temperature on trout dispersal between cold tributaries and warm main stems. Estimated adult carrying capacities decreased exponentially with increasing stream size from 0.24 trout/m in headwaters to 0.005 trout/m in the main stem. Finally, temporal variance in brook trout population size was lowest in the high-density headwater population, tended to peak in mid-sized streams and declined slightly in the largest streams with the lowest densities. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that local density-dependent processes have a strong control on brook trout dynamics across the entire distribution gradient. However, the mechanisms of regulation likely shift from competition for limited food and space in headwater streams to competition for thermal refugia in larger main stems. It also is likely that source-sink dynamics and dispersal from small headwater habitats may partially influence brook trout population dynamics in the main stem. PMID:24618602

The unseen iceberg: Plant roots in arctic tundra

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Colleen M.; Sloan, Victoria L.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Norby, Richard J.; Walker, Anthony P.; Warren, Jeffrey M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.

2015-01-01

Plant roots play a critical role in ecosystem function in arctic tundra, but root dynamics in these ecosystems are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we synthesized available literature on tundra roots, including their distribution, dynamics and contribution to ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, and highlighted key aspects of their representation in terrestrial biosphere models. Across all tundra ecosystems, belowground plant biomass exceeded aboveground biomass, with the exception of polar desert tundra. Roots were shallowly distributed in the thin layer of soil that thaws annually, and were often found in surface organic soil horizons. Root traits – including distribution, chemistry, anatomy and resource partitioning – play an important role in controlling plant species competition, and therefore ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, under changing climatic conditions, but have only been quantified for a small fraction of tundra plants. Further, the annual production and mortality of fine roots are key components of ecosystem processes in tundra, but extant data are sparse. Tundra root traits and dynamics should be the focus of future research efforts. Better representation of the dynamics and characteristics of tundra roots will improve the utility of models for the evaluation of the responses of tundra ecosystems to changing environmental conditions.

Scaling symmetry, renormalization, and time series modeling: the case of financial assets dynamics.

PubMed

Zamparo, Marco; Baldovin, Fulvio; Caraglio, Michele; Stella, Attilio L

2013-12-01

We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling with time of the probability density of their aggregates. In its simplest version the model is the product of an endogenous autoregressive component and a random rescaling factor designed to embody also exogenous influences. Mathematical properties like increments' stationarity and ergodicity can be proven. Thanks to the relatively low number of parameters, model calibration can be conveniently based on a method of moments, as exemplified in the case of historical data of the S&P500 index. The calibrated model accounts very well for many stylized facts, like volatility clustering, power-law decay of the volatility autocorrelation function, and multiscaling with time of the aggregated return distribution. In agreement with empirical evidence in finance, the dynamics is not invariant under time reversal, and, with suitable generalizations, skewness of the return distribution and leverage effects can be included. The analytical tractability of the model opens interesting perspectives for applications, for instance, in terms of obtaining closed formulas for derivative pricing. Further important features are the possibility of making contact, in certain limits, with autoregressive models widely used in finance and the possibility of partially resolving the long- and short-memory components of the volatility, with consistent results when applied to historical series.

Scaling symmetry, renormalization, and time series modeling: The case of financial assets dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamparo, Marco; Baldovin, Fulvio; Caraglio, Michele; Stella, Attilio L.

2013-12-01

We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling with time of the probability density of their aggregates. In its simplest version the model is the product of an endogenous autoregressive component and a random rescaling factor designed to embody also exogenous influences. Mathematical properties like increments’ stationarity and ergodicity can be proven. Thanks to the relatively low number of parameters, model calibration can be conveniently based on a method of moments, as exemplified in the case of historical data of the S&P500 index. The calibrated model accounts very well for many stylized facts, like volatility clustering, power-law decay of the volatility autocorrelation function, and multiscaling with time of the aggregated return distribution. In agreement with empirical evidence in finance, the dynamics is not invariant under time reversal, and, with suitable generalizations, skewness of the return distribution and leverage effects can be included. The analytical tractability of the model opens interesting perspectives for applications, for instance, in terms of obtaining closed formulas for derivative pricing. Further important features are the possibility of making contact, in certain limits, with autoregressive models widely used in finance and the possibility of partially resolving the long- and short-memory components of the volatility, with consistent results when applied to historical series.

Weakly Nonergodic Dynamics in the Gross-Pitaevskii Lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mithun, Thudiyangal; Kati, Yagmur; Danieli, Carlo; Flach, Sergej

2018-05-01

The microcanonical Gross-Pitaevskii (also known as the semiclassical Bose-Hubbard) lattice model dynamics is characterized by a pair of energy and norm densities. The grand canonical Gibbs distribution fails to describe a part of the density space, due to the boundedness of its kinetic energy spectrum. We define Poincaré equilibrium manifolds and compute the statistics of microcanonical excursion times off them. The tails of the distribution functions quantify the proximity of the many-body dynamics to a weakly nonergodic phase, which occurs when the average excursion time is infinite. We find that a crossover to weakly nonergodic dynamics takes place inside the non-Gibbs phase, being unnoticed by the largest Lyapunov exponent. In the ergodic part of the non-Gibbs phase, the Gibbs distribution should be replaced by an unknown modified one. We relate our findings to the corresponding integrable limit, close to which the actions are interacting through a short range coupling network.

Stereodynamics in state-resolved scattering at the gas–liquid interface

PubMed Central

Perkins, Bradford G.; Nesbitt, David J.

2008-01-01

Stereodynamics at the gas–liquid interface provides insight into the important physical interactions that directly influence heterogeneous chemistry at the surface and within the bulk liquid. We investigate molecular beam scattering of CO2 from a liquid perfluoropolyether (PFPE) surface in vacuum [incident energy Einc = 10.6(8) kcal/mol, incident angle θinc = 60°] to specifically reveal rotational angular-momentum directions for scattered molecules. Experimentally, internal quantum state populations and MJ distributions are probed by high-resolution polarization-modulated infrared laser spectroscopy. Analysis of J-state populations reveals dual-channel scattering dynamics characterized by a two-temperature Boltzmann distribution for trapping–desorption and impulsive scattering. In addition, molecular dynamics simulations of CO2 + fluorinated self-assembled monolayers have been used to model CO2 + PFPE dynamics. Experimental results and molecular dynamics simulations reveal highly oriented CO2 distributions that preferentially scatter with “top spin” as a strongly increasing function of J state. PMID:18678907

Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacz, A. P.; St. John, M. A.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Hirata, T.; Gregg, W. W.

2013-11-01

Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by the insufficient amount of field measurements of ground truths in both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore coexistence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high-latitude areas and indicate seasonal coexistence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, has so far not been captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models, which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacz, A. P.; St. John, M. A.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Hirata, T.; Gregg, W. W.

2013-05-01

Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by insufficient amount of field measurements to ground-truth both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically-sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs, and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore co-existence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high latitude areas, and indicate seasonal co-existence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, was so far not captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

Stability of a general delayed virus dynamics model with humoral immunity and cellular infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elaiw, A. M.; Raezah, A. A.; Alofi, A. S.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior of a general nonlinear model for virus dynamics with virus-target and infected-target incidences. The model incorporates humoral immune response and distributed time delays. The model is a four dimensional system of delay differential equations where the production and removal rates of the virus and cells are given by general nonlinear functions. We derive the basic reproduction parameter R˜0 G and the humoral immune response activation number R˜1 G and establish a set of conditions on the general functions which are sufficient to determine the global dynamics of the models. We use suitable Lyapunov functionals and apply LaSalle's invariance principle to prove the global asymptotic stability of the all equilibria of the model. We confirm the theoretical results by numerical simulations.

Epoch Lifetimes in the Dynamics of a Competing Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeung, C. H.; Ma, Y. P.; Wong, K. Y. Michael

We propose a dynamical model of a competing population whose agents have a tendency to balance their decisions in time. The model is applicable to financial markets in which the agents trade with finite capital, or other multiagent systems such as routers in communication networks attempting to transmit multiclass traffic in a fair way. We find an oscillatory behavior due to the segregation of agents into two groups. Each group remains winning over epochs. The aggregation of smart agents is able to explain the lifetime distribution of epochs to 8 decades of probability. The existence of the super agents further refines the lifetime distribution of short epochs.

Freezing in stripe states for kinetic Ising models: a comparative study of three dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godrèche, Claude; Pleimling, Michel

2018-04-01

We present a comparative study of the fate of an Ising ferromagnet on the square lattice with periodic boundary conditions evolving under three different zero-temperature dynamics. The first one is Glauber dynamics, the two other dynamics correspond to two limits of the directed Ising model, defined by rules that break the full symmetry of the former, yet sharing the same Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution at stationarity. In one of these limits the directed Ising model is reversible, in the other one it is irreversible. For the kinetic Ising-Glauber model, several recent studies have demonstrated the role of critical percolation to predict the probabilities for the system to reach the ground state or to fall in a metastable state. We investigate to what extent the predictions coming from critical percolation still apply to the two other dynamics.

The small impact of various partial charge distributions in ground and excited state on the computational Stokes shift of 1-methyl-6-oxyquinolinium betaine in diverse water models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heid, Esther; Harringer, Sophia; Schröder, Christian

2016-10-01

The influence of the partial charge distribution obtained from quantum mechanics of the solute 1-methyl-6-oxyquinolinium betaine in the ground- and first excited state on the time-dependent Stokes shift is studied via molecular dynamics computer simulation. Furthermore, the effect of the employed solvent model — here the non-polarizable SPC, TIP4P and TIP4P/2005 and the polarizable SWM4 water model — on the solvation dynamics of the system is investigated. The use of different functionals and calculation methods influences the partial charge distribution and the magnitude of the dipole moment of the solute, but not the orientation of the dipole moment. Simulations based on the calculated charge distributions show nearly the same relaxation behavior. Approximating the whole solute molecule by a dipole results in the same relaxation behavior, but lower solvation energies, indicating that the time scale of the Stokes shift does not depend on peculiarities of the solute. However, the SPC and TIP4P water models show too fast dynamics which can be ascribed to a too large diffusion coefficient and too low viscosity. The calculated diffusion coefficient and viscosity for the SWM4 and TIP4P/2005 models coincide well with experimental values and the corresponding relaxation behavior is comparable to experimental values. Furthermore we found that for a quantitative description of the Stokes shift of the applied system at least two solvation shells around the solute have to be taken into account.

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

PubMed Central

Tournebize, Rémi; Manel, Stéphanie; Vigouroux, Yves; Munoz, François; de Kochko, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion. PMID:28820899

The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency

PubMed Central

Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Trabucco, Antonio; Higgins, Steven I.

2016-01-01

The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannahs in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savannah tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African and Australian savannah distributions from the physiologically based Thornley transport resistance statistical distribution model (TTR-SDM)—and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parametrized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070, all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannahs at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannahs at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savannah biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502376

The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency.

PubMed

Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Trabucco, Antonio; Higgins, Steven I

2016-09-19

The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannahs in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savannah tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African and Australian savannah distributions from the physiologically based Thornley transport resistance statistical distribution model (TTR-SDM)-and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parametrized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070, all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannahs at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannahs at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savannah biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Dynamic phase transitions of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model under an oscillating external magnetic field by the path probability method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertaş, Mehmet; Keskin, Mustafa

2015-03-01

By using the path probability method (PPM) with point distribution, we study the dynamic phase transitions (DPTs) in the Blume-Emery-Griffiths (BEG) model under an oscillating external magnetic field. The phases in the model are obtained by solving the dynamic equations for the average order parameters and a disordered phase, ordered phase and four mixed phases are found. We also investigate the thermal behavior of the dynamic order parameters to analyze the nature dynamic transitions as well as to obtain the DPT temperatures. The dynamic phase diagrams are presented in three different planes in which exhibit the dynamic tricritical point, double critical end point, critical end point, quadrupole point, triple point as well as the reentrant behavior, strongly depending on the values of the system parameters. We compare and discuss the dynamic phase diagrams with dynamic phase diagrams that were obtained within the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the mean-field theory.

2-D and 3-D oscillating wing aerodynamics for a range of angles of attack including stall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piziali, R. A.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive experimental investigation of the pressure distribution over a semispan wing undergoing pitching motions representative of a helicopter rotor blade was conducted. Testing the wing in the nonrotating condition isolates the three-dimensional (3-D) blade aerodynamic and dynamic stall characteristics from the complications of the rotor blade environment. The test has generated a very complete, detailed, and accurate body of data. These data include static and dynamic pressure distributions, surface flow visualizations, two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil data from the same model and installation, and important supporting blockage and wall pressure distributions. This body of data is sufficiently comprehensive and accurate that it can be used for the validation of rotor blade aerodynamic models over a broad range of the important parameters including 3-D dynamic stall. This data report presents all the cycle-averaged lift, drag, and pitching moment coefficient data versus angle of attack obtained from the instantaneous pressure data for the 3-D wing and the 2-D airfoil. Also presented are examples of the following: cycle-to-cycle variations occurring for incipient or lightly stalled conditions; 3-D surface flow visualizations; supporting blockage and wall pressure distributions; and underlying detailed pressure results.

Simulation of the Velocity and Temperature Distribution of Inhalation Thermal Injury in a Human Upper Airway Model by Application of Computational Fluid Dynamics.

PubMed

Chang, Yang; Zhao, Xiao-zhuo; Wang, Cheng; Ning, Fang-gang; Zhang, Guo-an

2015-01-01

Inhalation injury is an important cause of death after thermal burns. This study was designed to simulate the velocity and temperature distribution of inhalation thermal injury in the upper airway in humans using computational fluid dynamics. Cervical computed tomography images of three Chinese adults were imported to Mimics software to produce three-dimensional models. After grids were established and boundary conditions were defined, the simulation time was set at 1 minute and the gas temperature was set to 80 to 320°C using ANSYS software (ANSYS, Canonsburg, PA) to simulate the velocity and temperature distribution of inhalation thermal injury. Cross-sections were cut at 2-mm intervals, and maximum airway temperature and velocity were recorded for each cross-section. The maximum velocity peaked in the lower part of the nasal cavity and then decreased with air flow. The velocities in the epiglottis and glottis were higher than those in the surrounding areas. Further, the maximum airway temperature decreased from the nasal cavity to the trachea. Computational fluid dynamics technology can be used to simulate the velocity and temperature distribution of inhaled heated air.

An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics.

PubMed

Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B; Womble, Jamie N; Esslinger, George G; Bower, Michael R; Hefley, Trevor J

2017-02-01

Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Versino, Daniele; Bronkhorst, Curt Allan

The computational formulation of a micro-mechanical material model for the dynamic failure of ductile metals is presented in this paper. The statistical nature of porosity initiation is accounted for by introducing an arbitrary probability density function which describes the pores nucleation pressures. Each micropore within the representative volume element is modeled as a thick spherical shell made of plastically incompressible material. The treatment of porosity by a distribution of thick-walled spheres also allows for the inclusion of micro-inertia effects under conditions of shock and dynamic loading. The second order ordinary differential equation governing the microscopic porosity evolution is solved withmore » a robust implicit procedure. A new Chebyshev collocation method is employed to approximate the porosity distribution and remapping is used to optimize memory usage. The adaptive approximation of the porosity distribution leads to a reduction of computational time and memory usage of up to two orders of magnitude. Moreover, the proposed model affords consistent performance: changing the nucleation pressure probability density function and/or the applied strain rate does not reduce accuracy or computational efficiency of the material model. The numerical performance of the model and algorithms presented is tested against three problems for high density tantalum: single void, one-dimensional uniaxial strain, and two-dimensional plate impact. Here, the results using the integration and algorithmic advances suggest a significant improvement in computational efficiency and accuracy over previous treatments for dynamic loading conditions.« less

Using computer simulations to determine the limitations of dynamic clamp stimuli applied at the soma in mimicking distributed conductance sources.

PubMed

Lin, Risa J; Jaeger, Dieter

2011-05-01

In previous studies we used the technique of dynamic clamp to study how temporal modulation of inhibitory and excitatory inputs control the frequency and precise timing of spikes in neurons of the deep cerebellar nuclei (DCN). Although this technique is now widely used, it is limited to interpreting conductance inputs as being location independent; i.e., all inputs that are biologically distributed across the dendritic tree are applied to the soma. We used computer simulations of a morphologically realistic model of DCN neurons to compare the effects of purely somatic vs. distributed dendritic inputs in this cell type. We applied the same conductance stimuli used in our published experiments to the model. To simulate variability in neuronal responses to repeated stimuli, we added a somatic white current noise to reproduce subthreshold fluctuations in the membrane potential. We were able to replicate our dynamic clamp results with respect to spike rates and spike precision for different patterns of background synaptic activity. We found only minor differences in the spike pattern generation between focal or distributed input in this cell type even when strong inhibitory or excitatory bursts were applied. However, the location dependence of dynamic clamp stimuli is likely to be different for each cell type examined, and the simulation approach developed in the present study will allow a careful assessment of location dependence in all cell types.

Chicxulub Ejecta Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OKeefe, John D.; Stewart, Sarah T.; Ahrens, Thomas J.

2001-01-01

We modeled in detail the ejecta dynamics associated with the Chicxulub impact. We determined: (1) ejecta trajectories, (2) stratigraphic motions, (3) depth of ejecta stages, (4) thermodynamic histories of the ejecta particles, and (5) the final ejecta distribution. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Scientists Probe Pesticide Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chemical and Engineering News, 1974

1974-01-01

Summarizes discussions of a symposium on pesticide environmental dynamics with emphases upon pesticide transport processes, environmental reactions, and partitioning in air, soil, water and living organisms. Indicates that the goal is to attain knowledge enough to predict pesticide behavior and describe pesticide distribution with models and…

Chaotic dynamics of large-scale double-diffusive convection in a porous medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondo, Shutaro; Gotoda, Hiroshi; Miyano, Takaya; Tokuda, Isao T.

2018-02-01

We have studied chaotic dynamics of large-scale double-diffusive convection of a viscoelastic fluid in a porous medium from the viewpoint of dynamical systems theory. A fifth-order nonlinear dynamical system modeling the double-diffusive convection is theoretically obtained by incorporating the Darcy-Brinkman equation into transport equations through a physical dimensionless parameter representing porosity. We clearly show that the chaotic convective motion becomes much more complicated with increasing porosity. The degree of dynamic instability during chaotic convective motion is quantified by two important measures: the network entropy of the degree distribution in the horizontal visibility graph and the Kaplan-Yorke dimension in terms of Lyapunov exponents. We also present an interesting on-off intermittent phenomenon in the probability distribution of time intervals exhibiting nearly complete synchronization.

Full State Feedback Control for Virtual Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay Tillay

This report presents an object-oriented implementation of full state feedback control for virtual power plants (VPP). The components of the VPP full state feedback control are (1) objectoriented high-fidelity modeling for all devices in the VPP; (2) Distribution System Distributed Quasi-Dynamic State Estimation (DS-DQSE) that enables full observability of the VPP by augmenting actual measurements with virtual, derived and pseudo measurements and performing the Quasi-Dynamic State Estimation (QSE) in a distributed manner, and (3) automated formulation of the Optimal Power Flow (OPF) in real time using the output of the DS-DQSE, and solving the distributed OPF to provide the optimalmore » control commands to the DERs of the VPP.« less

Electrical utilities model for determining electrical distribution capacity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fritz, R. L.

1997-09-03

In its simplest form, this model was to obtain meaningful data on the current state of the Site`s electrical transmission and distribution assets, and turn this vast collection of data into useful information. The resulting product is an Electrical Utilities Model for Determining Electrical Distribution Capacity which provides: current state of the electrical transmission and distribution systems; critical Hanford Site needs based on outyear planning documents; decision factor model. This model will enable Electrical Utilities management to improve forecasting requirements for service levels, budget, schedule, scope, and staffing, and recommend the best path forward to satisfy customer demands at themore » minimum risk and least cost to the government. A dynamic document, the model will be updated annually to reflect changes in Hanford Site activities.« less

PLATYPUS: A code for reaction dynamics of weakly-bound nuclei at near-barrier energies within a classical dynamical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz-Torres, Alexis

2011-04-01

A self-contained Fortran-90 program based on a three-dimensional classical dynamical reaction model with stochastic breakup is presented, which is a useful tool for quantifying complete and incomplete fusion, and breakup in reactions induced by weakly-bound two-body projectiles near the Coulomb barrier. The code calculates (i) integrated complete and incomplete fusion cross sections and their angular momentum distribution, (ii) the excitation energy distribution of the primary incomplete-fusion products, (iii) the asymptotic angular distribution of the incomplete-fusion products and the surviving breakup fragments, and (iv) breakup observables, such as angle, kinetic energy and relative energy distributions. Program summaryProgram title: PLATYPUS Catalogue identifier: AEIG_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEIG_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 332 342 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 344 124 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran-90 Computer: Any Unix/Linux workstation or PC with a Fortran-90 compiler Operating system: Linux or Unix RAM: 10 MB Classification: 16.9, 17.7, 17.8, 17.11 Nature of problem: The program calculates a wide range of observables in reactions induced by weakly-bound two-body nuclei near the Coulomb barrier. These include integrated complete and incomplete fusion cross sections and their spin distribution, as well as breakup observables (e.g. the angle, kinetic energy, and relative energy distributions of the fragments). Solution method: All the observables are calculated using a three-dimensional classical dynamical model combined with the Monte Carlo sampling of probability-density distributions. See Refs. [1,2] for further details. Restrictions: The program is suited for a weakly-bound two-body projectile colliding with a stable target. The initial orientation of the segment joining the two breakup fragments is considered to be isotropic. Additional comments: Several source routines from Numerical Recipies, and the Mersenne Twister random number generator package are included to enable independent compilation. Running time: About 75 minutes for input provided, using a PC with 1.5 GHz processor.

Simple deterministic models and applications. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hyun Mo

2015-12-01

Currently, discrete modellings are largely accepted due to the access to computers with huge storage capacity and high performance processors and easy implementation of algorithms, allowing to develop and simulate increasingly sophisticated models. Wang et al. [7] present a review of dynamics in complex networks, focusing on the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. By doing an extensive review regarding to the human behavior responding to disease dynamics, the authors briefly describe the complex dynamics found in the literature: well-mixed populations networks, where spatial structure can be neglected, and other networks considering heterogeneity on spatially distributed populations. As controlling mechanisms are implemented, such as social distancing due 'social contagion', quarantine, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination, adaptive behavior can occur in human population, which can be easily taken into account in the dynamics formulated by networked populations.

Study of Automobile Market Dynamics : Volume 2. Analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-08-01

Volume II describes the work in providing statistical inputs to a computer model by examining the effects of various options on the number of automobiles sold; the distribution of sales among small, medium and large cars; the distribution between aut...

Self-consistent simulation of high-frequency driven plasma sheaths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shihab, Mohammed; Eremin, Denis; Mussenbrock, Thomas; Brinkmann, Ralf

2011-10-01

Low pressure capacitively coupled plasmas are widely used in plasma processing and microelectronics industry. Understanding the dynamics of the boundary sheath is a fundamental problem. It controls the energy and angular distribution of ions bombarding the electrode, which in turn affects the surface reaction rate and the profile of microscopic features. In this contribution, we investigate the dynamics of plasma boundary sheaths by means of a kinetic self-consistent model, which is able to resolve the ion dynamics. Asymmetric sheath dynamics is observed for the intermediate RF regime, i.e., in the regime where the ion plasma frequency is equal to the driving frequency. The ion inertia causes an additional phase difference between the expansion and the contraction phase of the plasma sheath and an asymmetry for the ion energy distribution bimodal shape. A comparison with experimental results and particle in cell simulations is performed. Low pressure capacitively coupled plasmas are widely used in plasma processing and microelectronics industry. Understanding the dynamics of the boundary sheath is a fundamental problem. It controls the energy and angular distribution of ions bombarding the electrode, which in turn affects the surface reaction rate and the profile of microscopic features. In this contribution, we investigate the dynamics of plasma boundary sheaths by means of a kinetic self-consistent model, which is able to resolve the ion dynamics. Asymmetric sheath dynamics is observed for the intermediate RF regime, i.e., in the regime where the ion plasma frequency is equal to the driving frequency. The ion inertia causes an additional phase difference between the expansion and the contraction phase of the plasma sheath and an asymmetry for the ion energy distribution bimodal shape. A comparison with experimental results and particle in cell simulations is performed. The financial support from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research within the frame of the project ``Plasma-Technology-Grid'' and the support of the DFG via the collaborative research center SFB-TR87 is gratefully acknowledged.

Deep HST Imaging in 47 Tucanae: A Global Dynamical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyl, J.; Caiazzo, I.; Richer, H.; Anderson, J.; Kalirai, J.; Parada, J.

2017-12-01

Multi-epoch observations with the Advanced Camera Survey and WFC3 on the Hubble Space Telescope provide a unique and comprehensive probe of stellar dynamics within 47 Tucanae. We confront analytic models of the globular cluster with the observed stellar proper motions that probe along the main sequence from just above 0.8-0.1M ⊙ as well as white dwarfs younger than 1 Gyr. One field lies just beyond the half-light radius where dynamical models (e.g., lowered Maxwellian distributions) make robust predictions for the stellar proper motions. The observed proper motions in this outer field show evidence for anisotropy in the velocity distribution as well as skewness; the latter is evidence of rotation. The measured velocity dispersions and surface brightness distributions agree in detail with a rotating anisotropic model of the stellar distribution function with mild dependence of the proper-motion dispersion on mass. However, the best-fitting models underpredict the rotation and skewness of the stellar velocities. In the second field, centered on the core of the cluster, the mass segregation in proper motion is much stronger. Nevertheless the model developed in the outer field can be extended inward by taking this mass segregation into account in a heuristic fashion. The proper motions of the main-sequence stars yield a mass estimate of the cluster of 1.31+/- 0.02× {10}6{M}⊙ at a distance of 4.7 kpc. By comparing the proper motions of a sample of giant and subgiant stars with the observed radial velocities we estimate the distance to the cluster kinematically to be 4.29 ± 0.47 kpc.

Time Series Remote Sensing in Monitoring the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Plant Invasions: A Study of Invasive Saltcedar (Tamarix Spp.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diao, Chunyuan

In today's big data era, the increasing availability of satellite and airborne platforms at various spatial and temporal scales creates unprecedented opportunities to understand the complex and dynamic systems (e.g., plant invasion). Time series remote sensing is becoming more and more important to monitor the earth system dynamics and interactions. To date, most of the time series remote sensing studies have been conducted with the images acquired at coarse spatial scale, due to their relatively high temporal resolution. The construction of time series at fine spatial scale, however, is limited to few or discrete images acquired within or across years. The objective of this research is to advance the time series remote sensing at fine spatial scale, particularly to shift from discrete time series remote sensing to continuous time series remote sensing. The objective will be achieved through the following aims: 1) Advance intra-annual time series remote sensing under the pure-pixel assumption; 2) Advance intra-annual time series remote sensing under the mixed-pixel assumption; 3) Advance inter-annual time series remote sensing in monitoring the land surface dynamics; and 4) Advance the species distribution model with time series remote sensing. Taking invasive saltcedar as an example, four methods (i.e., phenological time series remote sensing model, temporal partial unmixing method, multiyear spectral angle clustering model, and time series remote sensing-based spatially explicit species distribution model) were developed to achieve the objectives. Results indicated that the phenological time series remote sensing model could effectively map saltcedar distributions through characterizing the seasonal phenological dynamics of plant species throughout the year. The proposed temporal partial unmixing method, compared to conventional unmixing methods, could more accurately estimate saltcedar abundance within a pixel by exploiting the adequate temporal signatures of saltcedar. The multiyear spectral angle clustering model could guide the selection of the most representative remotely sensed image for repetitive saltcedar mapping over space and time. Through incorporating spatial autocorrelation, the species distribution model developed in the study could identify the suitable habitats of saltcedar at a fine spatial scale and locate appropriate areas at high risk of saltcedar infestation. Among 10 environmental variables, the distance to the river and the phenological attributes summarized by the time series remote sensing were regarded as the most important. These methods developed in the study provide new perspectives on how the continuous time series can be leveraged under various conditions to investigate the plant invasion dynamics.

Modeling and distributed gain scheduling strategy for load frequency control in smart grids with communication topology changes.

PubMed

Liu, Shichao; Liu, Xiaoping P; El Saddik, Abdulmotaleb

2014-03-01

In this paper, we investigate the modeling and distributed control problems for the load frequency control (LFC) in a smart grid. In contrast with existing works, we consider more practical and real scenarios, where the communication topology of the smart grid changes because of either link failures or packet losses. These topology changes are modeled as a time-varying communication topology matrix. By using this matrix, a new closed-loop power system model is proposed to integrate the communication topology changes into the dynamics of a physical power system. The globally asymptotical stability of this closed-loop power system is analyzed. A distributed gain scheduling LFC strategy is proposed to compensate for the potential degradation of dynamic performance (mean square errors of state vectors) of the power system under communication topology changes. In comparison to conventional centralized control approaches, the proposed method can improve the robustness of the smart grid to the variation of the communication network as well as to reduce computation load. Simulation results show that the proposed distributed gain scheduling approach is capable to improve the robustness of the smart grid to communication topology changes. © 2013 ISA. Published by ISA. All rights reserved.

A dynamic Brownian bridge movement model to estimate utilization distributions for heterogeneous animal movement.

PubMed

Kranstauber, Bart; Kays, Roland; Lapoint, Scott D; Wikelski, Martin; Safi, Kamran

2012-07-01

1. The recently developed Brownian bridge movement model (BBMM) has advantages over traditional methods because it quantifies the utilization distribution of an animal based on its movement path rather than individual points and accounts for temporal autocorrelation and high data volumes. However, the BBMM assumes unrealistic homogeneous movement behaviour across all data. 2. Accurate quantification of the utilization distribution is important for identifying the way animals use the landscape. 3. We improve the BBMM by allowing for changes in behaviour, using likelihood statistics to determine change points along the animal's movement path. 4. This novel extension, outperforms the current BBMM as indicated by simulations and examples of a territorial mammal and a migratory bird. The unique ability of our model to work with tracks that are not sampled regularly is especially important for GPS tags that have frequent failed fixes or dynamic sampling schedules. Moreover, our model extension provides a useful one-dimensional measure of behavioural change along animal tracks. 5. This new method provides a more accurate utilization distribution that better describes the space use of realistic, behaviourally heterogeneous tracks. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Distributed intelligent monitoring and reporting facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlou, George; Mykoniatis, George; Sanchez-P, Jorge-A.

1996-06-01

Distributed intelligent monitoring and reporting facilities are of paramount importance in both service and network management as they provide the capability to monitor quality of service and utilization parameters and notify degradation so that corrective action can be taken. By intelligent, we refer to the capability of performing the monitoring tasks in a way that has the smallest possible impact on the managed network, facilitates the observation and summarization of information according to a number of criteria and in its most advanced form and permits the specification of these criteria dynamically to suit the particular policy in hand. In addition, intelligent monitoring facilities should minimize the design and implementation effort involved in such activities. The ISO/ITU Metric, Summarization and Performance management functions provide models that only partially satisfy the above requirements. This paper describes our extensions to the proposed models to support further capabilities, with the intention to eventually lead to fully dynamically defined monitoring policies. The concept of distributing intelligence is also discussed, including the consideration of security issues and the applicability of the model in ODP-based distributed processing environments.

On the modified grain-size-distribution method to evaluate the dynamic recrystallisation fraction in AISI 304 stainless steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, D. H.; Park, J. K.

2018-04-01

The purpose of the present work was to verify the grain size distribution (GSD) method, which was recently proposed by one of the present authors as a method for evaluating the fraction of dynamic recrystallisation (DRX) in a microalloyed medium carbon steel. To verify the GSD-method, we have selected a 304 stainless steel as a model system and have measured the evolution of the overall grain size distribution (including both the recrystallised and unrecrystallised grains) during hot compression at 1,000 °C in a Gleeble machine; the DRX fraction estimated using the GSD method is compared with the experimentally measured value via EBSD. The results show that the previous GSD method tends to overestimate the DRX fraction due to the utilisation of a plain lognormal distribution function (LDF). To overcome this shortcoming, we propose a modified GSD-method wherein an area-weighted LDF, in place of a plain LDF, is employed to model the evolution of GSD during hot deformation. Direct measurement of the DRX fraction using EBSD confirms that the modified GSD-method provides a reliable method for evaluating the DRX fraction from the experimentally measured GSDs. Reasonable agreement between the DRX fraction and softening fraction suggests that the Kocks-Mecking method utilising the Voce equation can be satisfactorily used to model the work hardening and dynamic recovery behaviour of steels during hot deformation.

Random bursts determine dynamics of active filaments.

PubMed

Weber, Christoph A; Suzuki, Ryo; Schaller, Volker; Aranson, Igor S; Bausch, Andreas R; Frey, Erwin

2015-08-25

Constituents of living or synthetic active matter have access to a local energy supply that serves to keep the system out of thermal equilibrium. The statistical properties of such fluctuating active systems differ from those of their equilibrium counterparts. Using the actin filament gliding assay as a model, we studied how nonthermal distributions emerge in active matter. We found that the basic mechanism involves the interplay between local and random injection of energy, acting as an analog of a thermal heat bath, and nonequilibrium energy dissipation processes associated with sudden jump-like changes in the system's dynamic variables. We show here how such a mechanism leads to a nonthermal distribution of filament curvatures with a non-Gaussian shape. The experimental curvature statistics and filament relaxation dynamics are reproduced quantitatively by stochastic computer simulations and a simple kinetic model.

Random bursts determine dynamics of active filaments

PubMed Central

Weber, Christoph A.; Suzuki, Ryo; Schaller, Volker; Aranson, Igor S.; Bausch, Andreas R.; Frey, Erwin

2015-01-01

Constituents of living or synthetic active matter have access to a local energy supply that serves to keep the system out of thermal equilibrium. The statistical properties of such fluctuating active systems differ from those of their equilibrium counterparts. Using the actin filament gliding assay as a model, we studied how nonthermal distributions emerge in active matter. We found that the basic mechanism involves the interplay between local and random injection of energy, acting as an analog of a thermal heat bath, and nonequilibrium energy dissipation processes associated with sudden jump-like changes in the system’s dynamic variables. We show here how such a mechanism leads to a nonthermal distribution of filament curvatures with a non-Gaussian shape. The experimental curvature statistics and filament relaxation dynamics are reproduced quantitatively by stochastic computer simulations and a simple kinetic model. PMID:26261319

On joint subtree distributions under two evolutionary models.

PubMed

Wu, Taoyang; Choi, Kwok Pui

2016-04-01

In population and evolutionary biology, hypotheses about micro-evolutionary and macro-evolutionary processes are commonly tested by comparing the shape indices of empirical evolutionary trees with those predicted by neutral models. A key ingredient in this approach is the ability to compute and quantify distributions of various tree shape indices under random models of interest. As a step to meet this challenge, in this paper we investigate the joint distribution of cherries and pitchforks (that is, subtrees with two and three leaves) under two widely used null models: the Yule-Harding-Kingman (YHK) model and the proportional to distinguishable arrangements (PDA) model. Based on two novel recursive formulae, we propose a dynamic approach to numerically compute the exact joint distribution (and hence the marginal distributions) for trees of any size. We also obtained insights into the statistical properties of trees generated under these two models, including a constant correlation between the cherry and the pitchfork distributions under the YHK model, and the log-concavity and unimodality of the cherry distributions under both models. In addition, we show that there exists a unique change point for the cherry distributions between these two models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A cooperative model for IS security risk management in distributed environment.

PubMed

Feng, Nan; Zheng, Chundong

2014-01-01

Given the increasing cooperation between organizations, the flexible exchange of security information across the allied organizations is critical to effectively manage information systems (IS) security in a distributed environment. In this paper, we develop a cooperative model for IS security risk management in a distributed environment. In the proposed model, the exchange of security information among the interconnected IS under distributed environment is supported by Bayesian networks (BNs). In addition, for an organization's IS, a BN is utilized to represent its security environment and dynamically predict its security risk level, by which the security manager can select an optimal action to safeguard the firm's information resources. The actual case studied illustrates the cooperative model presented in this paper and how it can be exploited to manage the distributed IS security risk effectively.

Fit to predict? Eco-informatics for predicting the catchability of a pelagic fish in near real time.

PubMed

Scales, Kylie L; Hazen, Elliott L; Maxwell, Sara M; Dewar, Heidi; Kohin, Suzanne; Jacox, Michael G; Edwards, Christopher A; Briscoe, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Lewison, Rebecca L; Bograd, Steven J

2017-12-01

The ocean is a dynamic environment inhabited by a diverse array of highly migratory species, many of which are under direct exploitation in targeted fisheries. The timescales of variability in the marine realm coupled with the extreme mobility of ocean-wandering species such as tuna and billfish complicates fisheries management. Developing eco-informatics solutions that allow for near real-time prediction of the distributions of highly mobile marine species is an important step towards the maturation of dynamic ocean management and ecological forecasting. Using 25 yr (1990-2014) of NOAA fisheries' observer data from the California drift gillnet fishery, we model relative probability of occurrence (presence-absence) and catchability (total catch per gillnet set) of broadbill swordfish Xiphias gladius in the California Current System. Using freely available environmental data sets and open source software, we explore the physical drivers of regional swordfish distribution. Comparing models built upon remotely sensed data sets with those built upon a data-assimilative configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), we explore trade-offs in model construction, and address how physical data can affect predictive performance and operational capacity. Swordfish catchability was found to be highest in deeper waters (>1,500 m) with surface temperatures in the 14-20°C range, isothermal layer depth (ILD) of 20-40 m, positive sea surface height (SSH) anomalies, and during the new moon (<20% lunar illumination). We observed a greater influence of mesoscale variability (SSH, wind speed, isothermal layer depth, eddy kinetic energy) in driving swordfish catchability (total catch) than was evident in predicting the relative probability of presence (presence-absence), confirming the utility of generating spatiotemporally dynamic predictions. Data-assimilative ROMS circumvent the limitations of satellite remote sensing in providing physical data fields for species distribution models (e.g., cloud cover, variable resolution, subsurface data), and facilitate broad-scale prediction of dynamic species distributions in near real time. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Influence of viscoelastic nature on the intermittent peel-front dynamics of adhesive tape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Jagadish; Ananthakrishna, G.

2010-07-01

We investigate the influence of viscoelastic nature of the adhesive on the intermittent peel front dynamics by extending a recently introduced model for peeling of an adhesive tape. As time and rate-dependent deformation of the adhesives are measured in stationary conditions, a crucial step in incorporating the viscoelastic effects applicable to unstable intermittent peel dynamics is the introduction of a dynamization scheme that eliminates the explicit time dependence in terms of dynamical variables. We find contrasting influences of viscoelastic contribution in different regions of tape mass, roller inertia, and pull velocity. As the model acoustic energy dissipated depends on the nature of the peel front and its dynamical evolution, the combined effect of the roller inertia and pull velocity makes the acoustic energy noisier for small tape mass and low-pull velocity while it is burstlike for low-tape mass, intermediate values of the roller inertia and high-pull velocity. The changes are quantified by calculating the largest Lyapunov exponent and analyzing the statistical distributions of the amplitudes and durations of the model acoustic energy signals. Both single and two stage power-law distributions are observed. Scaling relations between the exponents are derived which show that the exponents corresponding to large values of event sizes and durations are completely determined by those for small values. The scaling relations are found to be satisfied in all cases studied. Interestingly, we find only five types of model acoustic emission signals among multitude of possibilities of the peel front configurations.

Microscopic understanding of the complex polymer dynamics in a blend —A molecular-dynamics simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diddens, D.; Brodeck, M.; Heuer, A.

2011-09-01

Within polymer blends composed of two species with largely different glass transition temperatures like PEO/PMMA, the dynamics of the fast PEO component is severely affected by the rather immobile PMMA, reflected by a breakdown of the typical Rouse scaling. The phenomenological random Rouse model (RRM), in which each monomer has an individual mobility obeying a broad log-normal distribution, has been applied to these blends. Using a newly developed method, we extract the distribution of friction coefficients from MD simulations of a PEO/PMMA blend, thereby testing the RRM explicitly. In our simulations we observe that the distribution is much narrower than expected from the RRM. Here, rather, the presence of additional forward-backward correlations of intermolecular origin is responsible for the anomalous PEO behavior.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes.

PubMed

Naujokaitis-Lewis, Ilona; Curtis, Janelle M R

2016-01-01

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes

PubMed Central

Curtis, Janelle M.R.

2016-01-01

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options. PMID:27547529

Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to Support NOWCAST and Forecast Activities at the Fallon Naval Station

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

forecasting and use of satellite data assimilation for model evaluation (Jiang et al, 2011a). He is a task leader on another NSF EPSCoR project...K. Horvath, R. Belu, 2011a: Application of variational data assimilation to dynamical downscaling of regional wind energy resources in the western...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to

Distributed Time Synchronization Algorithms and Opinion Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manita, Anatoly; Manita, Larisa

2018-01-01

We propose new deterministic and stochastic models for synchronization of clocks in nodes of distributed networks. An external accurate time server is used to ensure convergence of the node clocks to the exact time. These systems have much in common with mathematical models of opinion formation in multiagent systems. There is a direct analogy between the time server/node clocks pair in asynchronous networks and the leader/follower pair in the context of social network models.

Architectural Improvements and New Processing Tools for the Open XAL Online Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Christopher K; Pelaia II, Tom; Freed, Jonathan M

The online model is the component of Open XAL providing accelerator modeling, simulation, and dynamic synchronization to live hardware. Significant architectural changes and feature additions have been recently made in two separate areas: 1) the managing and processing of simulation data, and 2) the modeling of RF cavities. Simulation data and data processing have been completely decoupled. A single class manages all simulation data while standard tools were developed for processing the simulation results. RF accelerating cavities are now modeled as composite structures where parameter and dynamics computations are distributed. The beam and hardware models both maintain their relative phasemore » information, which allows for dynamic phase slip and elapsed time computation.« less

A Bayesian state-space formulation of dynamic occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, M.

2007-01-01

Species occurrence and its dynamic components, extinction and colonization probabilities, are focal quantities in biogeography and metapopulation biology, and for species conservation assessments. It has been increasingly appreciated that these parameters must be estimated separately from detection probability to avoid the biases induced by nondetection error. Hence, there is now considerable theoretical and practical interest in dynamic occupancy models that contain explicit representations of metapopulation dynamics such as extinction, colonization, and turnover as well as growth rates. We describe a hierarchical parameterization of these models that is analogous to the state-space formulation of models in time series, where the model is represented by two components, one for the partially observable occupancy process and another for the observations conditional on that process. This parameterization naturally allows estimation of all parameters of the conventional approach to occupancy models, but in addition, yields great flexibility and extensibility, e.g., to modeling heterogeneity or latent structure in model parameters. We also highlight the important distinction between population and finite sample inference; the latter yields much more precise estimates for the particular sample at hand. Finite sample estimates can easily be obtained using the state-space representation of the model but are difficult to obtain under the conventional approach of likelihood-based estimation. We use R and Win BUGS to apply the model to two examples. In a standard analysis for the European Crossbill in a large Swiss monitoring program, we fit a model with year-specific parameters. Estimates of the dynamic parameters varied greatly among years, highlighting the irruptive population dynamics of that species. In the second example, we analyze route occupancy of Cerulean Warblers in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a model allowing for site-specific heterogeneity in model parameters. The results indicate relatively low turnover and a stable distribution of Cerulean Warblers which is in contrast to analyses of counts of individuals from the same survey that indicate important declines. This discrepancy illustrates the inertia in occupancy relative to actual abundance. Furthermore, the model reveals a declining patch survival probability, and increasing turnover, toward the edge of the range of the species, which is consistent with metapopulation perspectives on the genesis of range edges. Given detection/non-detection data, dynamic occupancy models as described here have considerable potential for the study of distributions and range dynamics.

Simulation of noisy dynamical system by Deep Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, Kyongmin

2017-11-01

Deep learning has attracted huge attention due to its powerful representation capability. However, most of the studies on deep learning have been focused on visual analytics or language modeling and the capability of the deep learning in modeling dynamical systems is not well understood. In this study, we use a recurrent neural network to model noisy nonlinear dynamical systems. In particular, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, which constructs internal nonlinear dynamics systems. We propose a cross-entropy loss with spatial ridge regularization to learn a non-stationary conditional probability distribution from a noisy nonlinear dynamical system. A Monte Carlo procedure to perform time-marching simulations by using the LSTM is presented. The behavior of the LSTM is studied by using noisy, forced Van der Pol oscillator and Ikeda equation.

Seasonal Variation in the Spatial Distribution of Basking Sharks (Cetorhinus maximus) in the Lower Bay of Fundy, Canada

PubMed Central

Siders, Zachary A.; Westgate, Andrew J.; Johnston, David W.; Murison, Laurie D.; Koopman, Heather N.

2013-01-01

The local distribution of basking sharks in the Bay of Fundy (BoF) is unknown despite frequent occurrences in the area from May to November. Defining this species’ spatial habitat use is critical for accurately assessing its Special Concern conservation status in Atlantic Canada. We developed maximum entropy distribution models for the lower BoF and the northeast Gulf of Maine (GoM) to describe spatiotemporal variation in habitat use of basking sharks. Under the Maxent framework, we assessed model responses and distribution shifts in relation to known migratory behavior and local prey dynamics. We used 10 years (2002-2011) of basking shark surface sightings from July-October acquired during boat-based surveys in relation to chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, bathymetric features, and distance to seafloor contours to assess habitat suitability. Maximum entropy estimations were selected based on AICc criterion and used to predict habitat utilizing three model-fitting routines as well as converted to binary suitable/non-suitable habitat using the maximum sensitivity and specificity threshold. All models predicted habitat better than random (AUC values >0.796). From July-September, a majority of habitat was in the BoF, in waters >100 m deep, and in the Grand Manan Basin. In October, a majority of the habitat shifted southward into the GoM and to areas >200 m deep. Model responses suggest that suitable habitat from July - October is dependent on a mix of distance to the 0, 100, 150, and 200 m contours but in some models on sea surface temperature (July) and chlorophyll-a (August and September). Our results reveal temporally dynamic habitat use of basking sharks within the BoF and GoM. The relative importance of predictor variables suggests that prey dynamics constrained the species distribution in the BoF. Also, suitable habitat shifted minimally from July-September providing opportunities to conserve the species during peak abundance in the region. PMID:24324747

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A computationally efficient ductile damage model accounting for nucleation and micro-inertia at high triaxialities

DOE PAGES

Versino, Daniele; Bronkhorst, Curt Allan

2018-01-31

The computational formulation of a micro-mechanical material model for the dynamic failure of ductile metals is presented in this paper. The statistical nature of porosity initiation is accounted for by introducing an arbitrary probability density function which describes the pores nucleation pressures. Each micropore within the representative volume element is modeled as a thick spherical shell made of plastically incompressible material. The treatment of porosity by a distribution of thick-walled spheres also allows for the inclusion of micro-inertia effects under conditions of shock and dynamic loading. The second order ordinary differential equation governing the microscopic porosity evolution is solved withmore » a robust implicit procedure. A new Chebyshev collocation method is employed to approximate the porosity distribution and remapping is used to optimize memory usage. The adaptive approximation of the porosity distribution leads to a reduction of computational time and memory usage of up to two orders of magnitude. Moreover, the proposed model affords consistent performance: changing the nucleation pressure probability density function and/or the applied strain rate does not reduce accuracy or computational efficiency of the material model. The numerical performance of the model and algorithms presented is tested against three problems for high density tantalum: single void, one-dimensional uniaxial strain, and two-dimensional plate impact. Here, the results using the integration and algorithmic advances suggest a significant improvement in computational efficiency and accuracy over previous treatments for dynamic loading conditions.« less

Dynamical network interactions in distributed control of robots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buscarino, Arturo; Fortuna, Luigi; Frasca, Mattia; Rizzo, Alessandro

2006-03-01

In this paper the dynamical network model of the interactions within a group of mobile robots is investigated and proposed as a possible strategy for controlling the robots without central coordination. Motivated by the results of the analysis of our simple model, we show that the system performance in the presence of noise can be improved by including long-range connections between the robots. Finally, a suitable strategy based on this model to control exploration and transport is introduced.

Multiscale Modeling for the Analysis for Grain-Scale Fracture Within Aluminum Microstructures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaessgen, Edward H.; Phillips, Dawn R.; Yamakov, Vesselin; Saether, Erik

2005-01-01

Multiscale modeling methods for the analysis of metallic microstructures are discussed. Both molecular dynamics and the finite element method are used to analyze crack propagation and stress distribution in a nanoscale aluminum bicrystal model subjected to hydrostatic loading. Quantitative similarity is observed between the results from the two very different analysis methods. A bilinear traction-displacement relationship that may be embedded into cohesive zone finite elements is extracted from the nanoscale molecular dynamics results.

The statistical mechanics of human weight change

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Over the past 35 years there has been a near doubling in the worldwide prevalence of obesity. Body Mass Index (BMI) distributions in high-income societies have increasingly shifted rightwards, corresponding to increases in average BMI that are due to well-studied changes in the socioeconomic environment. However, in addition to this shift, BMI distributions have also shown marked changes in their particular shape over time, exhibiting an ongoing right-skewed broadening that is not well understood. Here, we compile and analyze the largest data set so far of year-over-year BMI changes. The data confirm that, on average, heavy individuals become lighter while light individuals become heavier year-over-year, and also show that year-over-year BMI evolution is characterized by fluctuations with a magnitude that is linearly proportional to BMI. We find that the distribution of human BMIs is intrinsically dynamic—due to the short-term variability of human weight—and its shape is determined by a balance between deterministic drift towards a natural set point and diffusion resulting from random fluctuations in, e.g., diet and physical activity. We formulate a stochastic mathematical model for BMI dynamics, deriving a theoretical shape for the BMI distribution and offering a mechanism that may explain the right-skewed broadening of BMI distributions over time. An extension of the base model investigates the hypothesis that peer-to-peer social influence plays a role in BMI dynamics. While including this effect improves the fit with the data, indicating that correlations in the behavior of individuals with similar BMI may be important for BMI dynamics, testing social transmission against other plausible unmodeled effects and interpretations remains the subject of future work. Implications of our findings on the dynamics of BMI distributions for public health interventions are discussed. PMID:29253025

Human dynamics scaling characteristics for aerial inbound logistics operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qing; Guo, Jin-Li

2010-05-01

In recent years, the study of power-law scaling characteristics of real-life networks has attracted much interest from scholars; it deviates from the Poisson process. In this paper, we take the whole process of aerial inbound operation in a logistics company as the empirical object. The main aim of this work is to study the statistical scaling characteristics of the task-restricted work patterns. We found that the statistical variables have the scaling characteristics of unimodal distribution with a power-law tail in five statistical distributions - that is to say, there obviously exists a peak in each distribution, the shape of the left part closes to a Poisson distribution, and the right part has a heavy-tailed scaling statistics. Furthermore, to our surprise, there is only one distribution where the right parts can be approximated by the power-law form with exponent α=1.50. Others are bigger than 1.50 (three of four are about 2.50, one of four is about 3.00). We then obtain two inferences based on these empirical results: first, the human behaviors probably both close to the Poisson statistics and power-law distributions on certain levels, and the human-computer interaction behaviors may be the most common in the logistics operational areas, even in the whole task-restricted work pattern areas. Second, the hypothesis in Vázquez et al. (2006) [A. Vázquez, J. G. Oliveira, Z. Dezsö, K.-I. Goh, I. Kondor, A.-L. Barabási. Modeling burst and heavy tails in human dynamics, Phys. Rev. E 73 (2006) 036127] is probably not sufficient; it claimed that human dynamics can be classified as two discrete university classes. There may be a new human dynamics mechanism that is different from the classical Barabási models.

Prediction of the filtrate particle size distribution from the pore size distribution in membrane filtration: Numerical correlations from computer simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrufo-Hernández, Norma Alejandra; Hernández-Guerrero, Maribel; Nápoles-Duarte, José Manuel; Palomares-Báez, Juan Pedro; Chávez-Rojo, Marco Antonio

2018-03-01

We present a computational model that describes the diffusion of a hard spheres colloidal fluid through a membrane. The membrane matrix is modeled as a series of flat parallel planes with circular pores of different sizes and random spatial distribution. This model was employed to determine how the size distribution of the colloidal filtrate depends on the size distributions of both, the particles in the feed and the pores of the membrane, as well as to describe the filtration kinetics. A Brownian dynamics simulation study considering normal distributions was developed in order to determine empirical correlations between the parameters that characterize these distributions. The model can also be extended to other distributions such as log-normal. This study could, therefore, facilitate the selection of membranes for industrial or scientific filtration processes once the size distribution of the feed is known and the expected characteristics in the filtrate have been defined.

Evaluating the accuracy of recent electron transport models at predicting Hall thruster plasma dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappelli, Mark; Young, Christopher

2016-10-01

We present continued efforts towards introducing physical models for cross-magnetic field electron transport into Hall thruster discharge simulations. In particular, we seek to evaluate whether such models accurately capture ion dynamics, both averaged and resolved in time, through comparisons with measured ion velocity distributions which are now becoming available for several devices. Here, we describe a turbulent electron transport model that is integrated into 2-D hybrid fluid/PIC simulations of a 72 mm diameter laboratory thruster operating at 400 W. We also compare this model's predictions with one recently proposed by Lafluer et al.. Introducing these models into 2-D hybrid simulations is relatively straightforward and leverages the existing framework for solving the electron fluid equations. The models are tested for their ability to capture the time-averaged experimental discharge current and its fluctuations due to ionization instabilities. Model predictions are also more rigorously evaluated against recent laser-induced fluorescence measurements of time-resolved ion velocity distributions.

Distributed model predictive control for constrained nonlinear systems with decoupled local dynamics.

PubMed

Zhao, Meng; Ding, Baocang

2015-03-01

This paper considers the distributed model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear large-scale systems with dynamically decoupled subsystems. According to the coupled state in the overall cost function of centralized MPC, the neighbors are confirmed and fixed for each subsystem, and the overall objective function is disassembled into each local optimization. In order to guarantee the closed-loop stability of distributed MPC algorithm, the overall compatibility constraint for centralized MPC algorithm is decomposed into each local controller. The communication between each subsystem and its neighbors is relatively low, only the current states before optimization and the optimized input variables after optimization are being transferred. For each local controller, the quasi-infinite horizon MPC algorithm is adopted, and the global closed-loop system is proven to be exponentially stable. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity Analysis of Flux Determination in Heart by H2 18O -provided Labeling Using a Dynamic Isotopologue Model of Energy Transfer Pathways

PubMed Central

Schryer, David W.; Peterson, Pearu; Illaste, Ardo; Vendelin, Marko

2012-01-01

To characterize intracellular energy transfer in the heart, two organ-level methods have frequently been employed: inversion and saturation transfer, and dynamic labeling. Creatine kinase (CK) fluxes obtained by following oxygen labeling have been considerably smaller than the fluxes determined by saturation transfer. It has been proposed that dynamic labeling determines net flux through CK shuttle, whereas saturation transfer measures total unidirectional flux. However, to our knowledge, no sensitivity analysis of flux determination by oxygen labeling has been performed, limiting our ability to compare flux distributions predicted by different methods. Here we analyze oxygen labeling in a physiological heart phosphotransfer network with active CK and adenylate kinase (AdK) shuttles and establish which fluxes determine the labeling state. A mathematical model consisting of a system of ordinary differential equations was composed describing enrichment in each phosphoryl group and inorganic phosphate. By varying flux distributions in the model and calculating the labeling, we analyzed labeling sensitivity to different fluxes in the heart. We observed that the labeling state is predominantly sensitive to total unidirectional CK and AdK fluxes and not to net fluxes. We conclude that measuring dynamic incorporation of into the high-energy phosphotransfer network in heart does not permit unambiguous determination of energetic fluxes with a higher magnitude than the ATP synthase rate when the bidirectionality of fluxes is taken into account. Our analysis suggests that the flux distributions obtained using dynamic labeling, after removing the net flux assumption, are comparable with those from inversion and saturation transfer. PMID:23236266

Exploring Population Admixture Dynamics via Empirical and Simulated Genome-wide Distribution of Ancestral Chromosomal Segments

PubMed Central

Jin, Wenfei; Wang, Sijia; Wang, Haifeng; Jin, Li; Xu, Shuhua

2012-01-01

The processes of genetic admixture determine the haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns of the admixed population, which is important for medical and evolutionary studies. However, most previous studies do not consider the inherent complexity of admixture processes. Here we proposed two approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, and we demonstrated, by analyzing genome-wide empirical and simulated data, that the approach based on the distribution of chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry (CSDAs) was more powerful than that based on the distribution of individual ancestry proportions. Analysis of 1,890 African Americans showed that a continuous gene flow model, in which the African American population continuously received gene flow from European populations over about 14 generations, best explained the admixture dynamics of African Americans among several putative models. Interestingly, we observed that some African Americans had much more European ancestry than the simulated samples, indicating substructures of local ancestries in African Americans that could have been caused by individuals from some particular lineages having repeatedly admixed with people of European ancestry. In contrast, the admixture dynamics of Mexicans could be explained by a gradual admixture model in which the Mexican population continuously received gene flow from both European and Amerindian populations over about 24 generations. Our results also indicated that recent gene flows from Sub-Saharan Africans have contributed to the gene pool of Middle Eastern populations such as Mozabite, Bedouin, and Palestinian. In summary, this study not only provides approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, but also advances our understanding on population history of African Americans, Mexicans, and Middle Eastern populations. PMID:23103229

Joint physical and numerical modeling of water distribution networks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zimmerman, Adam; O'Hern, Timothy John; Orear, Leslie Jr.

2009-01-01

This report summarizes the experimental and modeling effort undertaken to understand solute mixing in a water distribution network conducted during the last year of a 3-year project. The experimental effort involves measurement of extent of mixing within different configurations of pipe networks, measurement of dynamic mixing in a single mixing tank, and measurement of dynamic solute mixing in a combined network-tank configuration. High resolution analysis of turbulence mixing is carried out via high speed photography as well as 3D finite-volume based Large Eddy Simulation turbulence models. Macroscopic mixing rules based on flow momentum balance are also explored, and in somemore » cases, implemented in EPANET. A new version EPANET code was developed to yield better mixing predictions. The impact of a storage tank on pipe mixing in a combined pipe-tank network during diurnal fill-and-drain cycles is assessed. Preliminary comparison between dynamic pilot data and EPANET-BAM is also reported.« less

Dynamics of coherent states in regular and chaotic regimes of the non-integrable Dicke model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerma-Hernández, S.; Chávez-Carlos, J.; Bastarrachea-Magnani, M. A.; López-del-Carpio, B.; Hirsch, J. G.

2018-04-01

The quantum dynamics of initial coherent states is studied in the Dicke model and correlated with the dynamics, regular or chaotic, of their classical limit. Analytical expressions for the survival probability, i.e. the probability of finding the system in its initial state at time t, are provided in the regular regions of the model. The results for regular regimes are compared with those of the chaotic ones. It is found that initial coherent states in regular regions have a much longer equilibration time than those located in chaotic regions. The properties of the distributions for the initial coherent states in the Hamiltonian eigenbasis are also studied. It is found that for regular states the components with no negligible contribution are organized in sequences of energy levels distributed according to Gaussian functions. In the case of chaotic coherent states, the energy components do not have a simple structure and the number of participating energy levels is larger than in the regular cases.

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.

2018-03-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure and could largely help to reduce uncertainties in model predictions. Furthermore, by considering age and transit times of C in vegetation compartments as distributions, not only their mean values, we obtain additional insights into the temporal dynamics of carbon use, storage, and allocation to plant parts, which not only depends on the rate at which this C is transferred in and out of the compartments but also on the stochastic nature of the process itself.

Dynamic root distributions in ecohydrological modeling: A case study at Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivandran, Gajan; Bras, Rafael L.

2013-06-01

Arid regions are characterized by high variability in the arrival of rainfall, and species found in these areas have adapted mechanisms to ensure the capture of this scarce resource. In particular, the rooting strategies employed by vegetation can be critical to their survival. However, land surface models currently prescribe rooting profiles as a function of only the plant functional type of interest with no consideration for the soil texture or rainfall regime of the region being modeled. Additionally, these models do not incorporate the ability of vegetation to dynamically alter their rooting strategies in response to transient changes in environmental forcings or competition from other plant species and therefore tend to underestimate the resilience of these ecosystems. To address the simplicity of the current representation of roots in land surface models, a new dynamic rooting scheme was incorporated into the framework of the distributed ecohydrological model tRIBS+VEGGIE. The new scheme optimizes the allocation of carbon to the root zone to reduce the perceived stress of the vegetation, so that root profiles evolve based upon local climate and soil conditions. The ability of the new scheme to capture the complex dynamics of natural systems was evaluated by comparisons to hourly timescale energy flux, soil moisture, and vegetation growth observations from the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona. Robust agreement was found between the model and observations, providing confidence that the improved model is able to capture the multidirectional interactions between climate, soil, and vegetation at this site.

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity.

PubMed

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity.

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity. PMID:28060865

Implications of Lagrangian transport for coupled chemistry-climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenke, A.; Dameris, M.; Grewe, V.; Garny, H.

2008-10-01

For the first time a purely Lagrangian transport algorithm is applied in a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM). We use the Lagrangian scheme ATTILA for the transport of water vapour, cloud water and chemical trace species in the ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (E39C) CCM. The advantage of the Lagrangian approach is that it is numerically non-diffusive and therefore maintains steeper and more realistic gradients than the operational semi-Lagrangian transport scheme. In case of radiatively active species changes in the simulated distributions feed back to model dynamics which in turn affect the modelled transport. The implications of the Lagrangian transport scheme for stratospheric model dynamics and tracer distributions in the upgraded model version E39C-ATTILA (E39C-A) are evaluated by comparison with observations and results of the E39C model with the operational semi-Lagrangian advection scheme. We find that several deficiencies in stratospheric dynamics in E39C seem to originate from a pronounced modelled wet bias and an associated cold bias in the extra-tropical lowermost stratosphere. The reduction of the simulated moisture and temperature bias in E39C-A leads to a significant advancement of stratospheric dynamics in terms of the mean state as well as annual and interannual variability. As a consequence of the favourable numerical characteristics of the Lagrangian transport scheme and the improved model dynamics, E39C-A generally shows more realistic stratospheric tracer distributions: Compared to E39C high stratospheric chlorine (Cly) concentrations extend further downward and agree now well with analyses derived from observations. Therefore E39C-A realistically covers the altitude of maximum ozone depletion in the stratosphere. The location of the ozonopause, i.e. the transition from low tropospheric to high stratospheric ozone values, is also clearly improved in E39C-A. Furthermore, the simulated temporal evolution of stratospheric Cly in the past is realistically reproduced which is an important step towards a more reliable projection of future changes, especially of stratospheric ozone.

How School Context and Educator Characteristics Predict Distributed Leadership: A Hierarchical Structural Equation Model with 2013 TALIS Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Yan; Bellibas, Mehmet Sukru; Printy, Susan

2018-01-01

Distributed leadership is a dynamic process and reciprocal interaction of the leader, the subordinates and the situation. This research was inspired by the theoretical framework of Spillane in order to contextualize distributed leadership and compare the variations using the Teaching and Learning International Survey 2013 data. The two-level…

Nonmonotonic radial distribution of excited atoms in a positive column of pulsed direct currect discharges in helium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnat, E. V.; Kolobov, V. I.

2013-01-21

Nonmonotonic radial distributions of excited helium atoms have been experimentally observed in a positive column of pulsed helium discharges using planar laser induced fluorescence. Computational analysis of the discharge dynamics with a fluid plasma model confirms the experimental observations over a range of pressures and currents. The observed effect is attributed to the peculiarities of electron population-depopulation of the excited states during the 'dynamic discharge' conditions with strong modulations of the electric field maintaining the plasma.

Metadynamics Enhanced Markov Modeling of Protein Dynamics.

PubMed

Biswas, Mithun; Lickert, Benjamin; Stock, Gerhard

2018-05-31

Enhanced sampling techniques represent a versatile approach to account for rare conformational transitions in biomolecules. A particularly promising strategy is to combine massive parallel computing of short molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories (to sample the free energy landscape of the system) with Markov state modeling (to rebuild the kinetics from the sampled data). To obtain well-distributed initial structures for the short trajectories, it is proposed to employ metadynamics MD, which quickly sweeps through the entire free energy landscape of interest. Being only used to generate initial conformations, the implementation of metadynamics can be simple and fast. The conformational dynamics of helical peptide Aib 9 is adopted to discuss various technical issues of the approach, including metadynamics settings, minimal number and length of short MD trajectories, and the validation of the resulting Markov models. Using metadynamics to launch some thousands of nanosecond trajectories, several Markov state models are constructed that reveal that previous unbiased MD simulations of in total 16 μs length cannot provide correct equilibrium populations or qualitative features of the pathway distribution of the short peptide.

Proximity Networks and Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guclu, Hasan; Toroczkai, Zoltán

2007-03-01

We presented the basis of a framework to account for the dynamics of contacts in epidemic processes, through the notion of dynamic proximity graphs. By varying the integration time-parameter T, which is the period of infectivity one can give a simple account for some of the differences in the observed contact networks for different diseases, such as smallpox, or AIDS. Our simplistic model also seems to shed some light on the shape of the degree distribution of the measured people-people contact network from the EPISIM data. We certainly do not claim that the simplistic graph integration model above is a good model for dynamic contact graphs. It only contains the essential ingredients for such processes to produce a qualitative agreement with some observations. We expect that further refinements and extensions to this picture, in particular deriving the link-probabilities in the dynamic proximity graph from more realistic contact dynamics should improve the agreement between models and data.

Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Binter, Roman; Du, Hailiang; Niehoerster, Falk

2010-05-01

In operational forecasting, the computational complexity of large simulation models is, ideally, justified by enhanced performance over simpler models. We will consider probability forecasts and contrast the skill of ENSEMBLES-based seasonal probability forecasts of interest to the finance sector (specifically temperature forecasts for Nino 3.4 and the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)). The ENSEMBLES model simulations will be contrasted against forecasts from statistical models based on the observations (climatological distributions) and empirical dynamics based on the observations but conditioned on the current state (dynamical climatology). For some start dates, individual ENSEMBLES models yield significant skill even at a lead-time of 14 months. The nature of this skill is discussed, and chances of application are noted. Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of "zero-skill" models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time.

Time Correlations in Mode Hopping of Coupled Oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heltberg, Mathias L.; Krishna, Sandeep; Jensen, Mogens H.

2017-05-01

We study the dynamics in a system of coupled oscillators when Arnold Tongues overlap. By varying the initial conditions, the deterministic system can be attracted to different limit cycles. Adding noise, the mode hopping between different states become a dominating part of the dynamics. We simplify the system through a Poincare section, and derive a 1D model to describe the dynamics. We explain that for some parameter values of the external oscillator, the time distribution of occupancy in a state is exponential and thus memoryless. In the general case, on the other hand, it is a sum of exponential distributions characteristic of a system with time correlations.

Relaxation dynamics of maximally clustered networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaise, Janis; Johnson, Samuel

2018-01-01

We study the relaxation dynamics of fully clustered networks (maximal number of triangles) to an unclustered state under two different edge dynamics—the double-edge swap, corresponding to degree-preserving randomization of the configuration model, and single edge replacement, corresponding to full randomization of the Erdős-Rényi random graph. We derive expressions for the time evolution of the degree distribution, edge multiplicity distribution and clustering coefficient. We show that under both dynamics networks undergo a continuous phase transition in which a giant connected component is formed. We calculate the position of the phase transition analytically using the Erdős-Rényi phenomenology.

Shape modeling with family of Pearson distributions: Langmuir waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidojevic, Sonja

2014-10-01

Two major effects of Langmuir wave electric field influence on spectral line shapes are appearance of depressions shifted from unperturbed line and an additional dynamical line broadening. More realistic and accurate models of Langmuir waves are needed to study these effects with more confidence. In this article we present distribution shapes of a high-quality data set of Langmuir waves electric field observed by the WIND satellite. Using well developed numerical techniques, the distributions of the empirical measurements are modeled by family of Pearson distributions. The results suggest that the existing theoretical models of energy conversion between an electron beam and surrounding plasma is more complex. If the processes of the Langmuir wave generation are better understood, the influence of Langmuir waves on spectral line shapes could be modeled better.

Reversal time of jump-noise magnetization dynamics in nanomagnets via Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parthasarathy, Arun; Rakheja, Shaloo

2018-06-01

The jump-noise is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process which models thermal effects in magnetization dynamics, with special applications in low temperature escape rate phenomena. In this work, we develop improved numerical methods for Monte Carlo simulation of the jump-noise dynamics and validate the method by comparing the stationary distribution obtained empirically against the Boltzmann distribution. In accordance with the Néel-Brown theory, the jump-noise dynamics display an exponential relaxation toward equilibrium with a characteristic reversal time, which we extract for nanomagnets with uniaxial and cubic anisotropy. We relate the jump-noise dynamics to the equivalent Landau-Lifshitz dynamics up to second order correction for a general energy landscape and obtain the analogous Néel-Brown theory's solution of the reversal time. We find that the reversal time of jump-noise dynamics is characterized by Néel-Brown theory's solution at the energy saddle point for small noise. For large noise, the magnetization reversal due to jump-noise dynamics phenomenologically represents macroscopic tunneling of magnetization.

Inter-species competition-facilitation in stochastic riparian vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Tealdi, Stefano; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca

2013-02-07

Riparian vegetation is a highly dynamic community that lives on river banks and which depends to a great extent on the fluvial hydrology. The stochasticity of the discharge and erosion/deposition processes in fact play a key role in determining the distribution of vegetation along a riparian transect. These abiotic processes interact with biotic competition/facilitation mechanisms, such as plant competition for light, water, and nutrients. In this work, we focus on the dynamics of plants characterized by three components: (1) stochastic forcing due to river discharges, (2) competition for resources, and (3) inter-species facilitation due to the interplay between vegetation and fluid dynamics processes. A minimalist stochastic bio-hydrological model is proposed for the dynamics of the biomass of two vegetation species: one species is assumed dominant and slow-growing, the other is subdominant, but fast-growing. The stochastic model is solved analytically and the probability density function of the plant biomasses is obtained as a function of both the hydrologic and biologic parameters. The impact of the competition/facilitation processes on the distribution of vegetation species along the riparian transect is investigated and remarkable effects are observed. Finally, a good qualitative agreement is found between the model results and field data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

PubMed

Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

2010-03-10

Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and selective pressures that may be difficult or impossible to study by other means. More generally, and perhaps more importantly, this study introduces an approach for testing hypotheses about the processes that underlie genetic variation among marine microbes, embedded in the dynamic physical, chemical, and biological forces that generate and shape this diversity.

Structural dynamics of supercooled water from quasielastic neutron scattering and molecular simulations.

PubMed

Qvist, Johan; Schober, Helmut; Halle, Bertil

2011-04-14

One of the outstanding challenges presented by liquid water is to understand how molecules can move on a picosecond time scale despite being incorporated in a three-dimensional network of relatively strong H-bonds. This challenge is exacerbated in the supercooled state, where the dramatic slowing down of structural dynamics is reminiscent of the, equally poorly understood, generic behavior of liquids near the glass transition temperature. By probing single-molecule dynamics on a wide range of time and length scales, quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) can potentially reveal the mechanistic details of water's structural dynamics, but because of interpretational ambiguities this potential has not been fully realized. To resolve these issues, we present here an extensive set of high-quality QENS data from water in the range 253-293 K and a corresponding set of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to facilitate and validate the interpretation. Using a model-free approach, we analyze the QENS data in terms of two motional components. Based on the dynamical clustering observed in MD trajectories, we identify these components with two distinct types of structural dynamics: picosecond local (L) structural fluctuations within dynamical basins and slower interbasin jumps (J). The Q-dependence of the dominant QENS component, associated with J dynamics, can be quantitatively rationalized with a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) model with an apparent jump length that depends on low-order moments of the jump length and waiting time distributions. Using a simple coarse-graining algorithm to quantitatively identify dynamical basins, we map the newtonian MD trajectory on a CTRW trajectory, from which the jump length and waiting time distributions are computed. The jump length distribution is gaussian and the rms jump length increases from 1.5 to 1.9 Å as the temperature increases from 253 to 293 K. The rms basin radius increases from 0.71 to 0.75 Å over the same range. The waiting time distribution is exponential at all investigated temperatures, ruling out significant dynamical heterogeneity. However, a simulation at 238 K reveals a small but significant dynamical heterogeneity. The macroscopic diffusion coefficient deduced from the QENS data agrees quantitatively with NMR and tracer results. We compare our QENS analysis with existing approaches, arguing that the apparent dynamical heterogeneity implied by stretched exponential fitting functions results from the failure to distinguish intrabasin (L) from interbasin (J) structural dynamics. We propose that the apparent dynamical singularity at ∼220 K corresponds to freezing out of J dynamics, while the calorimetric glass transition corresponds to freezing out of L dynamics.

Structural dynamics of supercooled water from quasielastic neutron scattering and molecular simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qvist, Johan; Schober, Helmut; Halle, Bertil

2011-04-01

One of the outstanding challenges presented by liquid water is to understand how molecules can move on a picosecond time scale despite being incorporated in a three-dimensional network of relatively strong H-bonds. This challenge is exacerbated in the supercooled state, where the dramatic slowing down of structural dynamics is reminiscent of the, equally poorly understood, generic behavior of liquids near the glass transition temperature. By probing single-molecule dynamics on a wide range of time and length scales, quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) can potentially reveal the mechanistic details of water's structural dynamics, but because of interpretational ambiguities this potential has not been fully realized. To resolve these issues, we present here an extensive set of high-quality QENS data from water in the range 253-293 K and a corresponding set of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to facilitate and validate the interpretation. Using a model-free approach, we analyze the QENS data in terms of two motional components. Based on the dynamical clustering observed in MD trajectories, we identify these components with two distinct types of structural dynamics: picosecond local (L) structural fluctuations within dynamical basins and slower interbasin jumps (J). The Q-dependence of the dominant QENS component, associated with J dynamics, can be quantitatively rationalized with a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) model with an apparent jump length that depends on low-order moments of the jump length and waiting time distributions. Using a simple coarse-graining algorithm to quantitatively identify dynamical basins, we map the Newtonian MD trajectory on a CTRW trajectory, from which the jump length and waiting time distributions are computed. The jump length distribution is Gaussian and the rms jump length increases from 1.5 to 1.9 Å as the temperature increases from 253 to 293 K. The rms basin radius increases from 0.71 to 0.75 Å over the same range. The waiting time distribution is exponential at all investigated temperatures, ruling out significant dynamical heterogeneity. However, a simulation at 238 K reveals a small but significant dynamical heterogeneity. The macroscopic diffusion coefficient deduced from the QENS data agrees quantitatively with NMR and tracer results. We compare our QENS analysis with existing approaches, arguing that the apparent dynamical heterogeneity implied by stretched exponential fitting functions results from the failure to distinguish intrabasin (L) from interbasin (J) structural dynamics. We propose that the apparent dynamical singularity at ˜220 K corresponds to freezing out of J dynamics, while the calorimetric glass transition corresponds to freezing out of L dynamics.

Modeling and Optimization for Management of Intermittent Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, A. M.; Wilkening, J.; Rycroft, C.

2014-12-01

In many urban areas, piped water is supplied only intermittently, as valves direct water to different parts of the water distribution system at different times. The flow is transient, and may transition between free-surface and pressurized, resulting in complex dynamical features with important consequences for water suppliers and users. These consequences include degradation of distribution system components, compromised water quality, and inequitable water availability. The goal of this work is to model the important dynamics and identify operating conditions that mitigate certain negative effects of intermittent water supply. Specifically, we will look at controlling valve parameters occurring as boundary conditions in a network model of transient, transition flow through closed pipes. Gradient-based optimization will be used to find boundary values to minimize pressure gradients and ensure equitable water availability at system endpoints.

Integrable Floquet dynamics, generalized exclusion processes and "fused" matrix ansatz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanicat, Matthieu

2018-04-01

We present a general method for constructing integrable stochastic processes, with two-step discrete time Floquet dynamics, from the transfer matrix formalism. The models can be interpreted as a discrete time parallel update. The method can be applied for both periodic and open boundary conditions. We also show how the stationary distribution can be built as a matrix product state. As an illustration we construct parallel discrete time dynamics associated with the R-matrix of the SSEP and of the ASEP, and provide the associated stationary distributions in a matrix product form. We use this general framework to introduce new integrable generalized exclusion processes, where a fixed number of particles is allowed on each lattice site in opposition to the (single particle) exclusion process models. They are constructed using the fusion procedure of R-matrices (and K-matrices for open boundary conditions) for the SSEP and ASEP. We develop a new method, that we named "fused" matrix ansatz, to build explicitly the stationary distribution in a matrix product form. We use this algebraic structure to compute physical observables such as the correlation functions and the mean particle current.

Interchain coupled chain dynamics of poly(ethylene oxide) in blends with poly(methyl methacrylate): coupling model analysis.

PubMed

Ngai, K L; Wang, Li-Min

2011-11-21

Quasielastic neutron scattering and molecular dynamics simulation data from poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO)/poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) blends found that for short times the self-dynamics of PEO chain follows the Rouse model, but at longer times past t(c) = 1-2 ns it becomes slower and departs from the Rouse model in dependences on time, momentum transfer, and temperature. To explain the anomalies, others had proposed the random Rouse model (RRM) in which each monomer has different mobility taken from a broad log-normal distribution. Despite the success of the RRM, Diddens et al. [Eur. Phys. Lett. 95, 56003 (2011)] extracted the distribution of friction coefficients from the MD simulations of a PEO/PMMA blend and found that the distribution is much narrower than expected from the RRM. We propose a simpler alternative explanation of the data by utilizing alone the observed crossover of PEO chain dynamics at t(c). The present problem is just a special case of a general property of relaxation in interacting systems, which is the crossover from independent relaxation to coupled many-body relaxation at some t(c) determined by the interaction potential and intermolecular coupling/constraints. The generality is brought out vividly by pointing out that the crossover also had been observed by neutron scattering from entangled chains relaxation in monodisperse homopolymers, and from the segmental α-relaxation of PEO in blends with PMMA. The properties of all the relaxation processes in connection with the crossover are similar, despite the length scales of the relaxation in these systems are widely different.

Interchain coupled chain dynamics of poly(ethylene oxide) in blends with poly(methyl methacrylate): Coupling model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngai, K. L.; Wang, Li-Min

2011-11-01

Quasielastic neutron scattering and molecular dynamics simulation data from poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO)/poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) blends found that for short times the self-dynamics of PEO chain follows the Rouse model, but at longer times past tc = 1-2 ns it becomes slower and departs from the Rouse model in dependences on time, momentum transfer, and temperature. To explain the anomalies, others had proposed the random Rouse model (RRM) in which each monomer has different mobility taken from a broad log-normal distribution. Despite the success of the RRM, Diddens et al. [Eur. Phys. Lett. 95, 56003 (2011)] extracted the distribution of friction coefficients from the MD simulations of a PEO/PMMA blend and found that the distribution is much narrower than expected from the RRM. We propose a simpler alternative explanation of the data by utilizing alone the observed crossover of PEO chain dynamics at tc. The present problem is just a special case of a general property of relaxation in interacting systems, which is the crossover from independent relaxation to coupled many-body relaxation at some tc determined by the interaction potential and intermolecular coupling/constraints. The generality is brought out vividly by pointing out that the crossover also had been observed by neutron scattering from entangled chains relaxation in monodisperse homopolymers, and from the segmental α-relaxation of PEO in blends with PMMA. The properties of all the relaxation processes in connection with the crossover are similar, despite the length scales of the relaxation in these systems are widely different.

Dynamical Formation of Low-mass Merging Black Hole Binaries like GW151226

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Sourav; Rodriguez, Carl L.; Kalogera, Vicky

2017-02-20

Using numerical models for star clusters spanning a wide range in ages and metallicities (Z) we study the masses of binary black holes (BBHs) produced dynamically and merging in the local universe ( z ≲ 0.2). After taking into account cosmological constraints on star formation rate and metallicity evolution, which realistically relate merger delay times obtained from models with merger redshifts, we show here for the first time that while old, metal-poor globular clusters can naturally produce merging BBHs with heavier components, as observed in GW150914, lower-mass BBHs like GW151226 are easily formed dynamically in younger, higher-metallicity clusters. More specifically,more » we show that the mass of GW151226 is well within 1 σ of the mass distribution obtained from our models for clusters with Z/Z{sub ⊙} ≳ 0.5. Indeed, dynamical formation of a system like GW151226 likely requires a cluster that is younger and has a higher metallicity than typical Galactic globular clusters. The LVT151012 system, if real, could have been created in any cluster with Z/Z{sub ⊙} ≲ 0.25. On the other hand, GW150914 is more massive (beyond 1 σ ) than typical BBHs from even the lowest-metallicity (Z/Z{sub ⊙} = 0.005) clusters we consider, but is within 2 σ of the intrinsic mass distribution from our cluster models with Z/Z{sub ⊙} ≲ 0.05; of course, detection biases also push the observed distributions toward higher masses.« less

AdapChem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oluwole, Oluwayemisi O.; Wong, Hsi-Wu; Green, William

2012-01-01

AdapChem software enables high efficiency, low computational cost, and enhanced accuracy on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) numerical simulations used for combustion studies. The software dynamically allocates smaller, reduced chemical models instead of the larger, full chemistry models to evolve the calculation while ensuring the same accuracy to be obtained for steady-state CFD reacting flow simulations. The software enables detailed chemical kinetic modeling in combustion CFD simulations. AdapChem adapts the reaction mechanism used in the CFD to the local reaction conditions. Instead of a single, comprehensive reaction mechanism throughout the computation, a dynamic distribution of smaller, reduced models is used to capture accurately the chemical kinetics at a fraction of the cost of the traditional single-mechanism approach.

A New Distributed Optimization for Community Microgrids Scheduling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Starke, Michael R; Tomsovic, Kevin

This paper proposes a distributed optimization model for community microgrids considering the building thermal dynamics and customer comfort preference. The microgrid central controller (MCC) minimizes the total cost of operating the community microgrid, including fuel cost, purchasing cost, battery degradation cost and voluntary load shedding cost based on the customers' consumption, while the building energy management systems (BEMS) minimize their electricity bills as well as the cost associated with customer discomfort due to room temperature deviation from the set point. The BEMSs and the MCC exchange information on energy consumption and prices. When the optimization converges, the distributed generation scheduling,more » energy storage charging/discharging and customers' consumption as well as the energy prices are determined. In particular, we integrate the detailed thermal dynamic characteristics of buildings into the proposed model. The heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems can be scheduled intelligently to reduce the electricity cost while maintaining the indoor temperature in the comfort range set by customers. Numerical simulation results show the effectiveness of proposed model.« less

Dynamic constraints on CO2 uptake by an iron-fertilized Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peng, Tsung-Hung; Broecker, Wallace S.; Oestlund, H. G.

1992-01-01

The topics covered include the following: tracer distribution and dynamics in the Antarctic Ocean; a model of Antarctic and Non-Antarctic Oceans; effects on an anthropogenically affected atmosphere; effects of seasonal iron fertilization; and implications of the South Atlantic Ventilation Experiment C-14 results.

Hydration-Dependent Dynamical Modes in Xyloglucan from Molecular Dynamics Simulation of 13C NMR Relaxation Times and Their Distributions.

PubMed

Chen, Pan; Terenzi, Camilla; Furó, István; Berglund, Lars A; Wohlert, Jakob

2018-05-15

Macromolecular dynamics in biological systems, which play a crucial role for biomolecular function and activity at ambient temperature, depend strongly on moisture content. Yet, a generally accepted quantitative model of hydration-dependent phenomena based on local relaxation and diffusive dynamics of both polymer and its adsorbed water is still missing. In this work, atomistic-scale spatial distributions of motional modes are calculated using molecular dynamics simulations of hydrated xyloglucan (XG). These are shown to reproduce experimental hydration-dependent 13 C NMR longitudinal relaxation times ( T 1 ) at room temperature, and relevant features of their broad distributions, which are indicative of locally heterogeneous polymer reorientational dynamics. At low hydration, the self-diffusion behavior of water shows that water molecules are confined to particular locations in the randomly aggregated XG network while the average polymer segmental mobility remains low. Upon increasing water content, the hydration network becomes mobile and fully accessible for individual water molecules, and the motion of hydrated XG segments becomes faster. Yet, the polymer network retains a heterogeneous gel-like structure even at the highest level of hydration. We show that the observed distribution of relaxations times arises from the spatial heterogeneity of chain mobility that in turn is a result of heterogeneous distribution of water-chain and chain-chain interactions. Our findings contribute to the picture of hydration-dependent dynamics in other macromolecules such as proteins, DNA, and synthetic polymers, and hold important implications for the mechanical properties of polysaccharide matrixes in plants and plant-based materials.

A size-structured model of bacterial growth and reproduction.

PubMed

Ellermeyer, S F; Pilyugin, S S

2012-01-01

We consider a size-structured bacterial population model in which the rate of cell growth is both size- and time-dependent and the average per capita reproduction rate is specified as a model parameter. It is shown that the model admits classical solutions. The population-level and distribution-level behaviours of these solutions are then determined in terms of the model parameters. The distribution-level behaviour is found to be different from that found in similar models of bacterial population dynamics. Rather than convergence to a stable size distribution, we find that size distributions repeat in cycles. This phenomenon is observed in similar models only under special assumptions on the functional form of the size-dependent growth rate factor. Our main results are illustrated with examples, and we also provide an introductory study of the bacterial growth in a chemostat within the framework of our model.

MODELS-3 COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY (CMAQ) MODEL AEROSOL COMPONENT 1: MODEL DESCRIPTION

EPA Science Inventory

The aerosol component of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is designed to be an efficient and economical depiction of aerosol dynamics in the atmosphere. The approach taken represents the particle size distribution as the superposition of three lognormal subdis...

A micromechanical constitutive model for the dynamic response of brittle materials "Dynamic response of marble"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberman, Keith

2001-07-01

A micromechanically based constitutive model for the dynamic inelastic behavior of brittle materials, specifically "Dionysus-Pentelicon marble" with distributed microcracking is presented. Dionysus-Pentelicon marble was used in the construction of the Parthenon, in Athens, Greece. The constitutive model is a key component in the ability to simulate this historic explosion and the preceding bombardment form cannon fire that occurred at the Parthenon in 1678. Experiments were performed by Rosakis (1999) that characterized the static and dynamic response of this unique material. A micromechanical constitutive model that was previously successfully used to model the dynamic response of granular brittle materials is presented. The constitutive model was fitted to the experimental data for marble and reproduced the experimentally observed basic uniaxial dynamic behavior quite well. This micromechanical constitutive model was then implemented into the three dimensional nonlinear lagrangain finite element code Dyna3d(1998). Implementing this methodology into the three dimensional nonlinear dynamic finite element code allowed the model to be exercised on several preliminary impact experiments. During future simulations, the model is to be used in conjunction with other numerical techniques to simulate projectile impact and blast loading on the Dionysus-Pentelicon marble and on the structure of the Parthenon.

Ordered and disordered dynamics in monolayers of rolling particles.

PubMed

Kim, Byungsoo; Putkaradze, Vakhtang

2010-12-10

We consider the ordered and disordered dynamics for monolayers of rolling self-interacting particles modeling water molecules. The rolling constraint represents a simplified model of a strong, but rapidly decaying bond with the surface. We show the existence and nonlinear stability of ordered lattice states, as well as disturbance propagation through and chaotic vibrations of these states. We study the dynamics of disordered gas states and show that there is a surprising and universal linear connection between distributions of angular and linear velocity, allowing definition of temperature.

Characterization and predictability of basin scale SWE distributions using ASO snow depth and SWE retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, K.; Hedrick, A. R.; Marks, D. G.; Painter, T. H.

2017-12-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow water resources (SWE) in the mountains has been examined extensively through the use of models, in-situ networks and remote sensing techniques. However, until the Airborne Snow Observatory (http://aso.jpl.nasa.gov), our understanding of SWE dynamics has been limited due to a lack of well-constrained spatial distributions of SWE in complex terrain, particularly at high elevations and at regional scales (100km+). ASO produces comprehensive snow depth measurements and well-constrained SWE products providing the opportunity to re-examine our current understanding of SWE distributions with a robust and rich data source. We collected spatially-distributed snow depth and SWE data from over 150 individual ASO acquisitions spanning seven basins in California during the five-year operational period of 2013 - 2017. For each of these acquisitions, we characterized the spatial distribution of snow depth and SWE and examined how these distributions changed with time during snowmelt. We compared these distribution patterns between each of the seven basins and finally, examined the predictability of the SWE distributions using statistical extrapolations through both space and time. We compare and contrast these observationally-based characteristics with those from a physically-based snow model to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the implementation of our understanding of SWE processes in the model environment. In practice, these results may be used to support or challenge our current understanding of mountain SWE dynamics and provide techniques for enhanced evaluation of high-resolution snow models that go beyond in-situ point comparisons. In application, this work may provide guidance on the potential of ASO to guide backfilling of sparse spaceborne measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent.

Multiple scales modelling approaches to social interaction in crowd dynamics and crisis management. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trucu, Dumitru

2016-09-01

In this comprehensive review concerning the modelling of human behaviours in crowd dynamics [3], the authors explore a wide range of mathematical approaches spanning over multiple scales that are suitable to describe emerging crowd behaviours in extreme situations. Focused on deciphering the key aspects leading to emerging crowd patterns evolutions in challenging times such as those requiring an evacuation on a complex venue, the authors address this complex dynamics at both microscale (individual level), mesoscale (probability distributions of interacting individuals), and macroscale (population level), ultimately aiming to gain valuable understanding and knowledge that would inform decision making in managing crisis situations.

Sliding mode-based lateral vehicle dynamics control using tyre force measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunnappillil Madhusudhanan, Anil; Corno, Matteo; Holweg, Edward

2015-11-01

In this work, a lateral vehicle dynamics control based on tyre force measurements is proposed. Most of the lateral vehicle dynamics control schemes are based on yaw rate whereas tyre forces are the most important variables in vehicle dynamics as tyres are the only contact points between the vehicle and road. In the proposed method, active front steering is employed to uniformly distribute the required lateral force among the front left and right tyres. The force distribution is quantified through the tyre utilisation coefficients. In order to address the nonlinearities and uncertainties of the vehicle model, a gain scheduling sliding-mode control technique is used. In addition to stabilising the lateral dynamics, the proposed controller is able to maintain maximum lateral acceleration. The proposed method is tested and validated on a multi-body vehicle simulator.

Human and climate impact on global riverine water and sediment fluxes - a distributed analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Syvitski, J. P.

2013-05-01

Understanding riverine water and sediment dynamics is an important undertaking for both socially-relevant issues such as agriculture, water security and infrastructure management and for scientific analysis of climate, landscapes, river ecology, oceanography and other disciplines. Providing good quantitative and predictive tools in therefore timely particularly in light of predicted climate and landuse changes. The intensity and dynamics between man-made and climatic factors vary widely across the globe and are therefore hard to predict. Using sophisticated numerical models is therefore warranted. Here we use a distributed global riverine sediment and water discharge model (WBMsed) to simulate human and climate effect on our planet's large rivers.

Experimental Testing and Modeling Analysis of Solute Mixing at Water Distribution Pipe Junctions

EPA Science Inventory

Flow dynamics at a pipe junction controls particle trajectories, solute mixing and concentrations in downstream pipes. Here we have categorized pipe junctions into five hydraulic types, for which flow distribution factors and analytical equations for describing the solute mixing ...

A multilayer approach for price dynamics in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

2017-02-01

We introduce a new Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to previous studies, the order book dynamics, by considering two assets with variable fundamental prices. Fat tails in the probability distributions of normalized returns are observed, together with other features of real financial markets.

Model and simulation of Krause model in dynamic open network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

2017-08-01

The construction of the concept of evolution is an effective way to reveal the formation of group consensus. This study is based on the modeling paradigm of the HK model (Hegsekmann-Krause). This paper analyzes the evolution of multi - agent opinion in dynamic open networks with member mobility. The results of the simulation show that when the number of agents is constant, the interval distribution of the initial distribution will affect the number of the final view, The greater the distribution of opinions, the more the number of views formed eventually; The trust threshold has a decisive effect on the number of views, and there is a negative correlation between the trust threshold and the number of opinions clusters. The higher the connectivity of the initial activity group, the more easily the subjective opinion in the evolution of opinion to achieve rapid convergence. The more open the network is more conducive to the unity of view, increase and reduce the number of agents will not affect the consistency of the group effect, but not conducive to stability.

Phase change energy storage for solar dynamic power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiaramonte, F. P.; Taylor, J. D.

1992-01-01

This paper presents the results of a transient computer simulation that was developed to study phase change energy storage techniques for Space Station Freedom (SSF) solar dynamic (SD) power systems. Such SD systems may be used in future growth SSF configurations. Two solar dynamic options are considered in this paper: Brayton and Rankine. Model elements consist of a single node receiver and concentrator, and takes into account overall heat engine efficiency and power distribution characteristics. The simulation not only computes the energy stored in the receiver phase change material (PCM), but also the amount of the PCM required for various combinations of load demands and power system mission constraints. For a solar dynamic power system in low earth orbit, the amount of stored PCM energy is calculated by balancing the solar energy input and the energy consumed by the loads corrected by an overall system efficiency. The model assumes an average 75 kW SD power system load profile which is connected to user loads via dedicated power distribution channels. The model then calculates the stored energy in the receiver and subsequently estimates the quantity of PCM necessary to meet peaking and contingency requirements. The model can also be used to conduct trade studies on the performance of SD power systems using different storage materials.

Phase change energy storage for solar dynamic power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiaramonte, F. P.; Taylor, J. D.

This paper presents the results of a transient computer simulation that was developed to study phase change energy storage techniques for Space Station Freedom (SSF) solar dynamic (SD) power systems. Such SD systems may be used in future growth SSF configurations. Two solar dynamic options are considered in this paper: Brayton and Rankine. Model elements consist of a single node receiver and concentrator, and takes into account overall heat engine efficiency and power distribution characteristics. The simulation not only computes the energy stored in the receiver phase change material (PCM), but also the amount of the PCM required for various combinations of load demands and power system mission constraints. For a solar dynamic power system in low earth orbit, the amount of stored PCM energy is calculated by balancing the solar energy input and the energy consumed by the loads corrected by an overall system efficiency. The model assumes an average 75 kW SD power system load profile which is connected to user loads via dedicated power distribution channels. The model then calculates the stored energy in the receiver and subsequently estimates the quantity of PCM necessary to meet peaking and contingency requirements. The model can also be used to conduct trade studies on the performance of SD power systems using different storage materials.

MAGI: many-component galaxy initializer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miki, Yohei; Umemura, Masayuki

2018-04-01

Providing initial conditions is an essential procedure for numerical simulations of galaxies. The initial conditions for idealized individual galaxies in N-body simulations should resemble observed galaxies and be dynamically stable for time-scales much longer than their characteristic dynamical times. However, generating a galaxy model ab initio as a system in dynamical equilibrium is a difficult task, since a galaxy contains several components, including a bulge, disc, and halo. Moreover, it is desirable that the initial-condition generator be fast and easy to use. We have now developed an initial-condition generator for galactic N-body simulations that satisfies these requirements. The developed generator adopts a distribution-function-based method, and it supports various kinds of density models, including custom-tabulated inputs and the presence of more than one disc. We tested the dynamical stability of systems generated by our code, representing early- and late-type galaxies, with N = 2097 152 and 8388 608 particles, respectively, and we found that the model galaxies maintain their initial distributions for at least 1 Gyr. The execution times required to generate the two models were 8.5 and 221.7 seconds, respectively, which is negligible compared to typical execution times for N-body simulations. The code is provided as open-source software and is publicly and freely available at https://bitbucket.org/ymiki/magi.

Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

2008-12-01

Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

Change Semantic Constrained Online Data Cleaning Method for Real-Time Observational Data Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yulin; Lin, Hui; Li, Rongrong

2016-06-01

Recent breakthroughs in sensor networks have made it possible to collect and assemble increasing amounts of real-time observational data by observing dynamic phenomena at previously impossible time and space scales. Real-time observational data streams present potentially profound opportunities for real-time applications in disaster mitigation and emergency response, by providing accurate and timeliness estimates of environment's status. However, the data are always subject to inevitable anomalies (including errors and anomalous changes/events) caused by various effects produced by the environment they are monitoring. The "big but dirty" real-time observational data streams can rarely achieve their full potential in the following real-time models or applications due to the low data quality. Therefore, timely and meaningful online data cleaning is a necessary pre-requisite step to ensure the quality, reliability, and timeliness of the real-time observational data. In general, a straightforward streaming data cleaning approach, is to define various types of models/classifiers representing normal behavior of sensor data streams and then declare any deviation from this model as normal or erroneous data. The effectiveness of these models is affected by dynamic changes of deployed environments. Due to the changing nature of the complicated process being observed, real-time observational data is characterized by diversity and dynamic, showing a typical Big (Geo) Data characters. Dynamics and diversity is not only reflected in the data values, but also reflected in the complicated changing patterns of the data distributions. This means the pattern of the real-time observational data distribution is not stationary or static but changing and dynamic. After the data pattern changed, it is necessary to adapt the model over time to cope with the changing patterns of real-time data streams. Otherwise, the model will not fit the following observational data streams, which may led to large estimation error. In order to achieve the best generalization error, it is an important challenge for the data cleaning methodology to be able to characterize the behavior of data stream distributions and adaptively update a model to include new information and remove old information. However, the complicated data changing property invalidates traditional data cleaning methods, which rely on the assumption of a stationary data distribution, and drives the need for more dynamic and adaptive online data cleaning methods. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper presents a change semantics constrained online filtering method for real-time observational data. Based on the principle that the filter parameter should vary in accordance to the data change patterns, this paper embeds semantic description, which quantitatively depicts the change patterns in the data distribution to self-adapt the filter parameter automatically. Real-time observational water level data streams of different precipitation scenarios are selected for testing. Experimental results prove that by means of this method, more accurate and reliable water level information can be available, which is prior to scientific and prompt flood assessment and decision-making.

A Cooperative Model for IS Security Risk Management in Distributed Environment

PubMed Central

Zheng, Chundong

2014-01-01

Given the increasing cooperation between organizations, the flexible exchange of security information across the allied organizations is critical to effectively manage information systems (IS) security in a distributed environment. In this paper, we develop a cooperative model for IS security risk management in a distributed environment. In the proposed model, the exchange of security information among the interconnected IS under distributed environment is supported by Bayesian networks (BNs). In addition, for an organization's IS, a BN is utilized to represent its security environment and dynamically predict its security risk level, by which the security manager can select an optimal action to safeguard the firm's information resources. The actual case studied illustrates the cooperative model presented in this paper and how it can be exploited to manage the distributed IS security risk effectively. PMID:24563626

The hearing ear is always found close to the speaking tongue: Review of the role of the motor system in speech perception.

PubMed

Skipper, Jeremy I; Devlin, Joseph T; Lametti, Daniel R

2017-01-01

Does "the motor system" play "a role" in speech perception? If so, where, how, and when? We conducted a systematic review that addresses these questions using both qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative review of behavioural, computational modelling, non-human animal, brain damage/disorder, electrical stimulation/recording, and neuroimaging research suggests that distributed brain regions involved in producing speech play specific, dynamic, and contextually determined roles in speech perception. The quantitative review employed region and network based neuroimaging meta-analyses and a novel text mining method to describe relative contributions of nodes in distributed brain networks. Supporting the qualitative review, results show a specific functional correspondence between regions involved in non-linguistic movement of the articulators, covertly and overtly producing speech, and the perception of both nonword and word sounds. This distributed set of cortical and subcortical speech production regions are ubiquitously active and form multiple networks whose topologies dynamically change with listening context. Results are inconsistent with motor and acoustic only models of speech perception and classical and contemporary dual-stream models of the organization of language and the brain. Instead, results are more consistent with complex network models in which multiple speech production related networks and subnetworks dynamically self-organize to constrain interpretation of indeterminant acoustic patterns as listening context requires. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Finite Element Simulations of Kaikoura, NZ Earthquake using DInSAR and High-Resolution DSMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barba, M.; Willis, M. J.; Tiampo, K. F.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Clark, M. K.; Zekkos, D.; Stahl, T. A.; Massey, C. I.

2017-12-01

Three-dimensional displacements from the Kaikoura, NZ, earthquake in November 2016 are imaged here using Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) and high-resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) differencing and optical pixel tracking. Full-resolution co- and post-seismic interferograms of Sentinel-1A/B images are constructed using the JPL ISCE software. The OSU SETSM software is used to produce repeat 0.5 m posting DSMs from commercial satellite imagery, which are supplemented with UAV derived DSMs over the Kaikoura fault rupture on the eastern South Island, NZ. DInSAR provides long-wavelength motions while DSM differencing and optical pixel tracking provides both horizontal and vertical near fault motions, improving the modeling of shallow rupture dynamics. JPL GeoFEST software is used to perform finite element modeling of the fault segments and slip distributions and, in turn, the associated asperity distribution. The asperity profile is then used to simulate event rupture, the spatial distribution of stress drop, and the associated stress changes. Finite element modeling of slope stability is accomplished using the ultra high-resolution UAV derived DSMs to examine the evolution of post-earthquake topography, landslide dynamics and volumes. Results include new insights into shallow dynamics of fault slip and partitioning, estimates of stress change, and improved understanding of its relationship with the associated seismicity, deformation, and triggered cascading hazards.

Modeling early events in Francisella tularensis pathogenesis.

PubMed

Gillard, Joseph J; Laws, Thomas R; Lythe, Grant; Molina-París, Carmen

2014-01-01

Computational models can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of infection and be used as investigative tools to support development of medical treatments. We develop a stochastic, within-host, computational model of the infection process in the BALB/c mouse, following inhalational exposure to Francisella tularensis SCHU S4. The model is mechanistic and governed by a small number of experimentally verifiable parameters. Given an initial dose, the model generates bacterial load profiles corresponding to those produced experimentally, with a doubling time of approximately 5 h during the first 48 h of infection. Analytical approximations for the mean number of bacteria in phagosomes and cytosols for the first 24 h post-infection are derived and used to verify the stochastic model. In our description of the dynamics of macrophage infection, the number of bacteria released per rupturing macrophage is a geometrically-distributed random variable. When combined with doubling time, this provides a distribution for the time taken for infected macrophages to rupture and release their intracellular bacteria. The mean and variance of these distributions are determined by model parameters with a precise biological interpretation, providing new mechanistic insights into the determinants of immune and bacterial kinetics. Insights into the dynamics of macrophage suppression and activation gained by the model can be used to explore the potential benefits of interventions that stimulate macrophage activation.

Clinical Applications of Stochastic Dynamic Models of the Brain, Part I: A Primer.

PubMed

Roberts, James A; Friston, Karl J; Breakspear, Michael

2017-04-01

Biological phenomena arise through interactions between an organism's intrinsic dynamics and stochastic forces-random fluctuations due to external inputs, thermal energy, or other exogenous influences. Dynamic processes in the brain derive from neurophysiology and anatomical connectivity; stochastic effects arise through sensory fluctuations, brainstem discharges, and random microscopic states such as thermal noise. The dynamic evolution of systems composed of both dynamic and random effects can be studied with stochastic dynamic models (SDMs). This article, Part I of a two-part series, offers a primer of SDMs and their application to large-scale neural systems in health and disease. The companion article, Part II, reviews the application of SDMs to brain disorders. SDMs generate a distribution of dynamic states, which (we argue) represent ideal candidates for modeling how the brain represents states of the world. When augmented with variational methods for model inversion, SDMs represent a powerful means of inferring neuronal dynamics from functional neuroimaging data in health and disease. Together with deeper theoretical considerations, this work suggests that SDMs will play a unique and influential role in computational psychiatry, unifying empirical observations with models of perception and behavior. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

PubMed Central

Gorman, Jamie C.; Dunbar, Terri A.; Grimm, David; Gipson, Christina L.

2017-01-01

By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a) considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b) considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals) in the context of teams, (c) describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d) consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area. PMID:28744231

Plate tectonics drive tropical reef biodiversity dynamics

PubMed Central

Leprieur, Fabien; Descombes, Patrice; Gaboriau, Théo; Cowman, Peter F.; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Melián, Carlos J.; de Santana, Charles N.; Heine, Christian; Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R.; Pellissier, Loïc

2016-01-01

The Cretaceous breakup of Gondwana strongly modified the global distribution of shallow tropical seas reshaping the geographic configuration of marine basins. However, the links between tropical reef availability, plate tectonic processes and marine biodiversity distribution patterns are still unknown. Here, we show that a spatial diversification model constrained by absolute plate motions for the past 140 million years predicts the emergence and movement of diversity hotspots on tropical reefs. The spatial dynamics of tropical reefs explains marine fauna diversification in the Tethyan Ocean during the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, and identifies an eastward movement of ancestral marine lineages towards the Indo-Australian Archipelago in the Miocene. A mechanistic model based only on habitat-driven diversification and dispersal yields realistic predictions of current biodiversity patterns for both corals and fishes. As in terrestrial systems, we demonstrate that plate tectonics played a major role in driving tropical marine shallow reef biodiversity dynamics. PMID:27151103

Plate tectonics drive tropical reef biodiversity dynamics.

PubMed

Leprieur, Fabien; Descombes, Patrice; Gaboriau, Théo; Cowman, Peter F; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Melián, Carlos J; de Santana, Charles N; Heine, Christian; Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R; Pellissier, Loïc

2016-05-06

The Cretaceous breakup of Gondwana strongly modified the global distribution of shallow tropical seas reshaping the geographic configuration of marine basins. However, the links between tropical reef availability, plate tectonic processes and marine biodiversity distribution patterns are still unknown. Here, we show that a spatial diversification model constrained by absolute plate motions for the past 140 million years predicts the emergence and movement of diversity hotspots on tropical reefs. The spatial dynamics of tropical reefs explains marine fauna diversification in the Tethyan Ocean during the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, and identifies an eastward movement of ancestral marine lineages towards the Indo-Australian Archipelago in the Miocene. A mechanistic model based only on habitat-driven diversification and dispersal yields realistic predictions of current biodiversity patterns for both corals and fishes. As in terrestrial systems, we demonstrate that plate tectonics played a major role in driving tropical marine shallow reef biodiversity dynamics.

Dynamic electrical impedance imaging with the interacting multiple model scheme.

PubMed

Kim, Kyung Youn; Kim, Bong Seok; Kim, Min Chan; Kim, Sin; Isaacson, David; Newell, Jonathan C

2005-04-01

In this paper, an effective dynamical EIT imaging scheme is presented for on-line monitoring of the abruptly changing resistivity distribution inside the object, based on the interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm. The inverse problem is treated as a stochastic nonlinear state estimation problem with the time-varying resistivity (state) being estimated on-line with the aid of the IMM algorithm. In the design of the IMM algorithm multiple models with different process noise covariance are incorporated to reduce the modeling uncertainty. Simulations and phantom experiments are provided to illustrate the proposed algorithm.

Modeling of dynamic effects of a low power laser beam

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawrence, George N.; Scholl, Marija S.; Khatib, AL

1988-01-01

Methods of modeling some of the dynamic effects involved in laser beam propagation through the atmosphere are addressed with emphasis on the development of simple but accurate models which are readily implemented in a physical optics code. A space relay system with a ground based laser facility is considered as an example. The modeling of such characteristic phenomena as laser output distribution, flat and curved mirrors, diffraction propagation, atmospheric effects (aberration and wind shear), adaptive mirrors, jitter, and time integration of power on target, is discussed.

Multiscale molecular dynamics/hydrodynamics implementation of two dimensional "Mercedes Benz" water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scukins, A.; Nerukh, D.; Pavlov, E.; Karabasov, S.; Markesteijn, A.

2015-09-01

A multiscale Molecular Dynamics/Hydrodynamics implementation of the 2D Mercedes Benz (MB or BN2D) [1] water model is developed and investigated. The concept and the governing equations of multiscale coupling together with the results of the two-way coupling implementation are reported. The sensitivity of the multiscale model for obtaining macroscopic and microscopic parameters of the system, such as macroscopic density and velocity fluctuations, radial distribution and velocity autocorrelation functions of MB particles, is evaluated. Critical issues for extending the current model to large systems are discussed.

Experimental testing and modeling analysis of solute mixing at water distribution pipe junctions.

PubMed

Shao, Yu; Jeffrey Yang, Y; Jiang, Lijie; Yu, Tingchao; Shen, Cheng

2014-06-01

Flow dynamics at a pipe junction controls particle trajectories, solute mixing and concentrations in downstream pipes. The effect can lead to different outcomes of water quality modeling and, hence, drinking water management in a distribution network. Here we have investigated solute mixing behavior in pipe junctions of five hydraulic types, for which flow distribution factors and analytical equations for network modeling are proposed. First, based on experiments, the degree of mixing at a cross is found to be a function of flow momentum ratio that defines a junction flow distribution pattern and the degree of departure from complete mixing. Corresponding analytical solutions are also validated using computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) simulations. Second, the analytical mixing model is further extended to double-Tee junctions. Correspondingly the flow distribution factor is modified to account for hydraulic departure from a cross configuration. For a double-Tee(A) junction, CFD simulations show that the solute mixing depends on flow momentum ratio and connection pipe length, whereas the mixing at double-Tee(B) is well represented by two independent single-Tee junctions with a potential water stagnation zone in between. Notably, double-Tee junctions differ significantly from a cross in solute mixing and transport. However, it is noted that these pipe connections are widely, but incorrectly, simplified as cross junctions of assumed complete solute mixing in network skeletonization and water quality modeling. For the studied pipe junction types, analytical solutions are proposed to characterize the incomplete mixing and hence may allow better water quality simulation in a distribution network. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dynamic equilibrium behaviour observed on two contrasting tidal flats from daily monitoring of bed-level changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhan; van der Wal, Daphne; Cai, Huayang; van Belzen, Jim; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

2018-06-01

Dynamic equilibrium theory (DET) has been applied to tidal flats to systematically explain intertidal morphological responses to various distributions of bed shear stress (BSS). However, it is difficult to verify this theory with field observations because of the discrepancy between the idealized conceptions of theory and the complex reality of intertidal dynamics. The core relation between intertidal morphodynamics and BSS distribution can be easily masked by noise in complex datasets, leading to conclusions of insufficient field evidence to support DET. In the current study, hydrodynamic and morphodynamic data were monitored daily for one year on two tidal flats with contrasting wave exposures. BSS distribution was obtained by validated numerical models. Tidal flat dynamic equilibrium behaviour and BSS were linked via Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. We show that the principal morphodynamic modes corresponded well with the respective modes of BSS found at both sites. Tide-induced BSS was the dominant force at both sites, regardless of the level of wave exposure. The overall erosional and steepening trend found at the two flats can be attributed to the prevailing action of tidal forcing and reduced sediment supply. Hence, EOF analysis confirmed that tidal flat morphodynamics are consistent with DET, providing both field and model evidence to support this theory.

The unseen iceberg: plant roots in arctic tundra.

PubMed

Iversen, Colleen M; Sloan, Victoria L; Sullivan, Patrick F; Euskirchen, Eugenie S; McGuire, A David; Norby, Richard J; Walker, Anthony P; Warren, Jeffrey M; Wullschleger, Stan D

2015-01-01

Plant roots play a critical role in ecosystem function in arctic tundra, but root dynamics in these ecosystems are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we synthesized available literature on tundra roots, including their distribution, dynamics and contribution to ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, and highlighted key aspects of their representation in terrestrial biosphere models. Across all tundra ecosystems, belowground plant biomass exceeded aboveground biomass, with the exception of polar desert tundra. Roots were shallowly distributed in the thin layer of soil that thaws annually, and were often found in surface organic soil horizons. Root traits - including distribution, chemistry, anatomy and resource partitioning - play an important role in controlling plant species competition, and therefore ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, under changing climatic conditions, but have only been quantified for a small fraction of tundra plants. Further, the annual production and mortality of fine roots are key components of ecosystem processes in tundra, but extant data are sparse. Tundra root traits and dynamics should be the focus of future research efforts. Better representation of the dynamics and characteristics of tundra roots will improve the utility of models for the evaluation of the responses of tundra ecosystems to changing environmental conditions. No claim to original US Government works New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Evidence for the Gompertz curve in the income distribution of Brazil 1978-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, N. J., Jr.; Ribeiro, M. B.

2009-01-01

This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the personal income distribution in Brazil. Yearly samples available from 1978 to 2005 were studied and evidence was found that the complementary cumulative distribution of personal income for 99% of the economically less favorable population is well represented by a Gompertz curve of the form G(x) = exp [exp (A-Bx)], where x is the normalized individual income. The complementary cumulative distribution of the remaining 1% richest part of the population is well represented by a Pareto power law distribution P(x) = βx-α. This result means that similarly to other countries, Brazil’s income distribution is characterized by a well defined two class system. The parameters A, B, α, β were determined by a mixture of boundary conditions, normalization and fitting methods for every year in the time span of this study. Since the Gompertz curve is characteristic of growth models, its presence here suggests that these patterns in income distribution could be a consequence of the growth dynamics of the underlying economic system. In addition, we found out that the percentage share of both the Gompertzian and Paretian components relative to the total income shows an approximate cycling pattern with periods of about 4 years and whose maximum and minimum peaks in each component alternate at about every 2 years. This finding suggests that the growth dynamics of Brazil’s economic system might possibly follow a Goodwin-type class model dynamics based on the application of the Lotka-Volterra equation to economic growth and cycle.

Dust grains in the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko - link with surface properties and cometary activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capria, M. T.; Ivanovski, S.; Zakharov, W.; Capaccioni, F.; Filacchione, G.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Rotundi, A.; Della Corte, V.; Longobardo, A.; Palomba, E.; Colangeli, L.; Bockelee-Morvan, D.; Erard, S.; Leyrat, C.

2016-11-01

The imaging spectrometer VIRTIS and the dust analyzer GIADA, onboard Rosetta, made an extensive observation of the dust particles in the coma of the comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. From the analysis of GIADA data, two different kind of particles have been revealed, compact and fluffy with different compositions and dynamical properties. Compact particles are characterized by densities of about 10E3 kg/m3, while fluffy particles have an almost fractal nature, with densities less than 1 kg/m3. In this work we present the initial results of a model linking the dust flux distribution, as obtained from a theoretical thermal nucleus model, with a model describing the dynamics of aspherical grains in the coma. The results are discussed in the context of the latest observations from VIRTIS and GIADA instruments. The 2D nucleus thermal model, when applied to the real shape of the comet, provides the size distribution and physical properties of the emitted grains at different times and location on the surface. The thermal model can simulate grains of various size distribution, composition and physical properties. This information is used as an input for the dust dynamical model that follows the emitted particles in the coma. The main source of heating is the solar illumination. In the dust dynamical model, the grain trajectory of emitted particles remains in a plane perpendicular to the rotational axis and the direction of illumination is taken to be in the same plane (i.e. does not cause transversal forces). The dust particles are assumed to be isothermal convex bodies and temperature changes only induce modest changes in the aerodynamic force (twice higher temperature changes aerodynamic force less than 30%). This study reviews the theoretical values at which temperature difference starts to play a role on the dynamics. We discuss to what extent the particle's temperature affects the terminal velocities of the dust grains in the 67P coma in dependence on their mass and temperature constrained by the observations.

Dust grains in the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko - link with surface properties and cometary activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capria, Maria Teresa; Ivanovski, Stavro; Zakharov, Vladimir; Capaccioni, Fabrizio; Filacchione, Gianrico; De Sanctis, Maria Cristina; rotundi, alessandra; della corte, vincenzo; Longobardo, Andrea; Palomba, Ernesto; colangeli, luigi; Bockelee-Morvan, Dominique; Érard, Stéphane; Leyrat, Cedric; VIRTIS, GIADA

2016-10-01

The imaging spectrometer VIRTIS and the dust analyzer GIADA, onboard Rosetta, made an extensive observation of the dust particles in the coma of the comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. From the analysis of GIADA data, two different kind of particles have been revealed, compact and fluffy with different compositions and dynamical properties. Compact particles are characterized by densities of about 103 kg/m3, while fluffy particles have an almost fractal nature, with densities less than 1 kg/m3.In this work we present the initial results of a model linking the dust flux distribution, as obtained from a theoretical thermal nucleus model, with a model describing the dynamics of aspherical grains in the coma. The results are discussed in the context of the latest observations from VIRTIS and GIADA instruments.The 2D nucleus thermal model, when applied to the real shape of the comet, provides the size distribution and physical properties of the emitted grains at different times and location on the surface. The thermal model can simulate grains of various size distribution, composition and physical properties. This information is used as an input for the dust dynamical model that follows the emitted particles in the coma. The main source of heating is the solar illumination. In the dust dynamical model, the grain trajectory of emitted particles remains in a plane perpendicular to the rotational axis and the direction of illumination is taken to be in the same plane (i.e. does not cause transversal forces). The dust particles are assumed to be isothermal convex bodies and temperature changes only induce modest changes in the aerodynamic force (twice higher temperature changes aerodynamic force less than ~30%). This study reviews the theoretical values at which temperature difference starts to play a role on the dynamics. We discuss to what extent the particle's temperature affects the terminal velocities of the dust grains in the 67P coma in dependence on their mass and temperature constrained by the observations.

Disease Spread and Its Effect on Population Dynamics in Heterogeneous Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model in which both species diffuse along a spatial gradient has been shown to exhibit temporal chaos at a fixed point in space. The proposed model is a modification of the model recently presented by Upadhyay and Roy [2014]. The spatial interactions among the species have been represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. The model incorporates the intrinsic growth rate of fish population which varies linearly with the depth of water. Numerical results show that diffusion can drive otherwise stable system into aperiodic behavior with sensitivity to initial conditions. We show that spatially induced chaos plays an important role in spatial pattern formation in heterogeneous environment. Spatiotemporal distributions of species have been simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural eco-epidemic systems. We found that in heterogeneous environment, the temporal dynamics of both the species are drastically different and show chaotic behavior. It was also found that the instability observed in the model is due to spatial heterogeneity and diffusion-driven. Cumulative death rate of predator has an appreciable effect on model dynamics as the spatial distribution of all constituent populations exhibit significant changes when this model parameter is changed and it acts as a regularizing factor.

Dynamic modeling, property investigation, and adaptive controller design of serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tesar, Delbert; Tosunoglu, Sabri; Lin, Shyng-Her

1990-01-01

Research results on general serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliances are presented. Two compliant manipulator modeling approaches, distributed and lumped parameter models, are used in this study. System dynamic equations for both compliant models are derived by using the first and second order influence coefficients. Also, the properties of compliant manipulator system dynamics are investigated. One of the properties, which is defined as inaccessibility of vibratory modes, is shown to display a distinct character associated with compliant manipulators. This property indicates the impact of robot geometry on the control of structural oscillations. Example studies are provided to illustrate the physical interpretation of inaccessibility of vibratory modes. Two types of controllers are designed for compliant manipulators modeled by either lumped or distributed parameter techniques. In order to maintain the generality of the results, neither linearization is introduced. Example simulations are given to demonstrate the controller performance. The second type controller is also built for general serial robot arms and is adaptive in nature which can estimate uncertain payload parameters on-line and simultaneously maintain trajectory tracking properties. The relation between manipulator motion tracking capability and convergence of parameter estimation properties is discussed through example case studies. The effect of control input update delays on adaptive controller performance is also studied.

Dynamical consequences of mantle heterogeneity in two-phase models of mid-ocean ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, R. F.

2010-12-01

The mid-ocean ridge system, over 50,000 km in length, samples the magmatic products of a large swath of the asthenosphere. It provides our best means to assess the heterogeneity structure of the upper mantle. Interpretation of the diverse array of observations of MOR petrology, geochemistry, tomography, etc requires models that can map heterogeneity structure onto predictions testable by comparison with these observations. I report on progress to this end; in particular, I describe numerical models of coupled magma/mantle dynamics at mid-ocean ridges [1,2]. These models incorporate heterogeneity in terms of a simple, two-component thermochemical system with specified amplitude and spatial distribution. They indicate that mantle heterogeneity has significant fluid-dynamical consequences for both mantle and magmatic flow. Models show that the distribution of enrichment can lead to asymmetry in the strength of upwelling across the ridge-axis and channelised magmatic transport to the axis. Furthermore, heterogeneity can cause off-axis upwelling of partially molten diapirs, trapping of enriched melts off-axis, and re-fertilization of the mantle by pooled and refrozen melts. Predicted consequences of geochemical heterogeneity may also be considered. References: [1] Katz, RF, (2008); Magma dynamics with the Enthalpy Method: Benchmark Solutions and Magmatic Focusing at Mid-ocean Ridges. Journal of Petrology, doi: 10.1093/petrology/egn058. [2] Katz RF, (2010); Porosity-driven convection and asymmetry beneath mid-ocean ridges. Submitted to G3.

An Adaptive Complex Network Model for Brain Functional Networks

PubMed Central

Gomez Portillo, Ignacio J.; Gleiser, Pablo M.

2009-01-01

Brain functional networks are graph representations of activity in the brain, where the vertices represent anatomical regions and the edges their functional connectivity. These networks present a robust small world topological structure, characterized by highly integrated modules connected sparsely by long range links. Recent studies showed that other topological properties such as the degree distribution and the presence (or absence) of a hierarchical structure are not robust, and show different intriguing behaviors. In order to understand the basic ingredients necessary for the emergence of these complex network structures we present an adaptive complex network model for human brain functional networks. The microscopic units of the model are dynamical nodes that represent active regions of the brain, whose interaction gives rise to complex network structures. The links between the nodes are chosen following an adaptive algorithm that establishes connections between dynamical elements with similar internal states. We show that the model is able to describe topological characteristics of human brain networks obtained from functional magnetic resonance imaging studies. In particular, when the dynamical rules of the model allow for integrated processing over the entire network scale-free non-hierarchical networks with well defined communities emerge. On the other hand, when the dynamical rules restrict the information to a local neighborhood, communities cluster together into larger ones, giving rise to a hierarchical structure, with a truncated power law degree distribution. PMID:19738902

Evolution of the cerebellum as a neuronal machine for Bayesian state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulin, M. G.

2005-09-01

The cerebellum evolved in association with the electric sense and vestibular sense of the earliest vertebrates. Accurate information provided by these sensory systems would have been essential for precise control of orienting behavior in predation. A simple model shows that individual spikes in electrosensory primary afferent neurons can be interpreted as measurements of prey location. Using this result, I construct a computational neural model in which the spatial distribution of spikes in a secondary electrosensory map forms a Monte Carlo approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution of prey locations given the sense data. The neural circuit that emerges naturally to perform this task resembles the cerebellar-like hindbrain electrosensory filtering circuitry of sharks and other electrosensory vertebrates. The optimal filtering mechanism can be extended to handle dynamical targets observed from a dynamical platform; that is, to construct an optimal dynamical state estimator using spiking neurons. This may provide a generic model of cerebellar computation. Vertebrate motion-sensing neurons have specific fractional-order dynamical characteristics that allow Bayesian state estimators to be implemented elegantly and efficiently, using simple operations with asynchronous pulses, i.e. spikes. The computational neural models described in this paper represent a novel kind of particle filter, using spikes as particles. The models are specific and make testable predictions about computational mechanisms in cerebellar circuitry, while providing a plausible explanation of cerebellar contributions to aspects of motor control, perception and cognition.

A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PDEMOD: Software for control/structures optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.; Zimmerman, David

1991-01-01

Because of the possibility of adverse interaction between the control system and the structural dynamics of large, flexible spacecraft, great care must be taken to ensure stability and system performance. Because of the high cost of insertion of mass into low earth orbit, it is prudent to optimize the roles of structure and control systems simultaneously. Because of the difficulty and the computational burden in modeling and analyzing the control structure system dynamics, the total problem is often split and treated iteratively. It would aid design if the control structure system dynamics could be represented in a single system of equations. With the use of the software PDEMOD (Partial Differential Equation Model), it is now possible to optimize structure and control systems simultaneously. The distributed parameter modeling approach enables embedding the control system dynamics into the same equations for the structural dynamics model. By doing this, the current difficulties involved in model order reduction are avoided. The NASA Mini-MAST truss is used an an example for studying integrated control structure design.

The role of sea ice dynamics in global climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibler, William D., III

1992-01-01

The topics covered include the following: general characteristics of sea ice drift; sea ice rheology; ice thickness distribution; sea ice thermodynamic models; equilibrium thermodynamic models; effect of internal brine pockets and snow cover; model simulations of Arctic Sea ice; and sensitivity of sea ice models to climate change.

Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail

2010-01-01

A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation of the dynamical models in a parameterized form reduces the task of common-sense-based decision making to a solution of the following hetero-associated-memory problem: store a set of m predetermined stochastic processes given by their probability distributions in such a way that when presented with an unexpected change in the form of an input out of the set of M inputs, the coupled motormental dynamics converges to the corresponding one of the m pre-assigned stochastic process, and a sample of this process represents the decision.

Recent corrections to meteoroid environment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorhead, A.; Brown, P.; Campbell-Brown, M. D.; Moser, D. E.; Blaauw, R. C.; Cooke, W.

2017-12-01

The dynamical and physical characteristics of a meteoroid affects its behavior in the atmosphere and the damage it does to spacecraft surfaces. Accurate environment models must therefore correctly describe the speed, size, density, and direction of meteoroids. However, the measurement of dynamical characteristics such as speed is subject to observational biases, and physical properties such as size and density cannot be directly measured. De-biasing techniques and proxies are needed to overcome these challenges. In this presentation, we discuss several recent improvements to the derivation of the meteoroid velocity, directionality, and bulk density distributions. We derive our speed distribution from observations made by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar. These observations are de-biased using modern descriptions of the ionization efficiency and sharpened to remove the effects of measurement uncertainty, and the result is a meteoroid speed distribution that is skewed slower than in previous analyses. We also adopt a higher fidelity density distribution than that used by many older models. In our distribution, meteoroids with TJ < 2 are assigned to a low-density population, while those with TJ > 2 have higher densities. This division and the distributions themselves are derived from the densities reported by Kikwaya et al. (2009, 2011). These changes have implications for the environment. For instance, helion and antihelion meteors have lower speeds and higher densities than apex and toroidal meteors. A slower speed distribution therefore corresponds to a sporadic environment that is more completely dominated by the helion and antihelion sources than in previous models. Finally, assigning these meteors high densities further increases their significance from a spacecraft damage perspective.

Recent Corrections to Meteoroid Environment Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moorhead, A. V.; Brown, P. G.; Campbell-Brown, M. D.; Moser, D. E.; Blaauw, R. C.; Cooke, W. J.

2017-01-01

The dynamical and physical characteristics of a meteoroid affects its behavior in the atmosphere and the damage it does to spacecraft surfaces. Accurate environment models must therefore correctly describe the speed, size, density, and direction of meteoroids. However, the measurement of dynamical characteristics such as speed is subject to observational biases, and physical properties such as size and density cannot be directly measured. De-biasing techniques and proxies are needed to overcome these challenges. In this presentation, we discuss several recent improvements to the derivation of the meteoroid velocity, directionality, and bulk density distributions. We derive our speed distribution from observations made by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar. These observations are de-biased using modern descriptions of the ionization efficiency and sharpened to remove the effects of measurement uncertainty, and the result is a meteoroid speed distribution that is skewed slower than in previous analyses. We also adopt a higher fidelity density distribution than that used by many older models. In our distribution, meteoroids with T(sub J) less than 2 are assigned to a low-density population, while those with T(sub J) greater than 2 have higher densities. This division and the distributions themselves are derived from the densities reported by Kikwaya et al. (2009, 2011). These changes have implications for the environment. For instance, helion and antihelion meteors have lower speeds and higher densities than apex and toroidal meteors. A slower speed distribution therefore corresponds to a sporadic environment that is more completely dominated by the helion and antihelion sources than in previous models. Finally, assigning these meteors high densities further increases their significance from a spacecraft damage perspective.

Optimal control of epidemic information dissemination over networks.

PubMed

Chen, Pin-Yu; Cheng, Shin-Ming; Chen, Kwang-Cheng

2014-12-01

Information dissemination control is of crucial importance to facilitate reliable and efficient data delivery, especially in networks consisting of time-varying links or heterogeneous links. Since the abstraction of information dissemination much resembles the spread of epidemics, epidemic models are utilized to characterize the collective dynamics of information dissemination over networks. From a systematic point of view, we aim to explore the optimal control policy for information dissemination given that the control capability is a function of its distribution time, which is a more realistic model in many applications. The main contributions of this paper are to provide an analytically tractable model for information dissemination over networks, to solve the optimal control signal distribution time for minimizing the accumulated network cost via dynamic programming, and to establish a parametric plug-in model for information dissemination control. In particular, we evaluate its performance in mobile and generalized social networks as typical examples.

Engineering Inertial and Primary-Frequency Response for Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall-Anese, Emiliano; Zhao, Changhong; Guggilam, Swaroop

We propose a framework to engineer synthetic-inertia and droop-control parameters for distributed energy resources (DERs) so that the system frequency in a network composed of DERs and synchronous generators conforms to prescribed transient and steady-state performance specifications. Our approach is grounded in a second-order lumped-parameter model that captures the dynamics of synchronous generators and frequency-responsive DERs endowed with inertial and droop control. A key feature of this reduced-order model is that its parameters can be related to those of the originating higher-order dynamical model. This allows one to systematically design the DER inertial and droop-control coefficients leveraging classical frequency-domain responsemore » characteristics of second-order systems. Time-domain simulations validate the accuracy of the model-reduction method and demonstrate how DER controllers can be designed to meet steady-state-regulation and transient-performance specifications.« less

Engineering Inertial and Primary-Frequency Response for Distributed Energy Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall-Anese, Emiliano; Zhao, Changhong; Guggilam, Swaroop

We propose a framework to engineer synthetic-inertia and droop-control parameters for distributed energy resources (DERs) so that the system frequency in a network composed of DERs and synchronous generators conforms to prescribed transient and steady-state performance specifications. Our approach is grounded in a second-order lumped-parameter model that captures the dynamics of synchronous generators and frequency-responsive DERs endowed with inertial and droop control. A key feature of this reduced-order model is that its parameters can be related to those of the originating higherorder dynamical model. This allows one to systematically design the DER inertial and droop-control coefficients leveraging classical frequency-domain responsemore » characteristics of second-order systems. Time-domain simulations validate the accuracy of the model-reduction method and demonstrate how DER controllers can be designed to meet steady-state-regulation and transient-performance specifications.« less

Static Aeroelastic Predictions for a Transonic Transport Model Using an Unstructured-Grid Flow Solver Coupled With a Structural Plate Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allison, Dennis O.; Cavallo, Peter A.

2003-01-01

An equivalent-plate structural deformation technique was coupled with a steady-state unstructured-grid three-dimensional Euler flow solver and a two-dimensional strip interactive boundary-layer technique. The objective of the research was to assess the extent to which a simple accounting for static model deformations could improve correlations with measured wing pressure distributions and lift coefficients at transonic speeds. Results were computed and compared to test data for a wing-fuselage model of a generic low-wing transonic transport at a transonic cruise condition over a range of Reynolds numbers and dynamic pressures. The deformations significantly improved correlations with measured wing pressure distributions and lift coefficients. This method provided a means of quantifying the role of dynamic pressure in wind-tunnel studies of Reynolds number effects for transonic transport models.

Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering Based on the Newly Developed Self-consistent RC/EMIC Waves Model by Khazanov et al. [2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gallagher, D. L.; Gamayunov, K.

2007-01-01

It is well known that the effects of EMIC waves on RC ion and RB electron dynamics strongly depend on such particle/wave characteristics as the phase-space distribution function, frequency, wave-normal angle, wave energy, and the form of wave spectral energy density. Therefore, realistic characteristics of EMIC waves should be properly determined by modeling the RC-EMIC waves evolution self-consistently. Such a selfconsistent model progressively has been developing by Khaznnov et al. [2002-2006]. It solves a system of two coupled kinetic equations: one equation describes the RC ion dynamics and another equation describes the energy density evolution of EMIC waves. Using this model, we present the effectiveness of relativistic electron scattering and compare our results with previous work in this area of research.

Understanding the effects of different HIV transmission models in individual-based microsimulation of HIV epidemic dynamics in people who inject drugs

PubMed Central

MONTEIRO, J.F.G.; ESCUDERO, D.J.; WEINREB, C.; FLANIGAN, T.; GALEA, S.; FRIEDMAN, S.R.; MARSHALL, B.D.L.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY We investigated how different models of HIV transmission, and assumptions regarding the distribution of unprotected sex and syringe-sharing events (‘risk acts’), affect quantitative understanding of HIV transmission process in people who inject drugs (PWID). The individual-based model simulated HIV transmission in a dynamic sexual and injecting network representing New York City. We constructed four HIV transmission models: model 1, constant probabilities; model 2, random number of sexual and parenteral acts; model 3, viral load individual assigned; and model 4, two groups of partnerships (low and high risk). Overall, models with less heterogeneity were more sensitive to changes in numbers risk acts, producing HIV incidence up to four times higher than that empirically observed. Although all models overestimated HIV incidence, micro-simulations with greater heterogeneity in the HIV transmission modelling process produced more robust results and better reproduced empirical epidemic dynamics. PMID:26753627

Modeling bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vázquez, Alexei; Oliveira, João Gama; Dezsö, Zoltán; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kondor, Imre; Barabási, Albert-László

2006-03-01

The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behavior into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. Here we provide direct evidence that for five human activity patterns, such as email and letter based communications, web browsing, library visits and stock trading, the timing of individual human actions follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity. We show that the bursty nature of human behavior is a consequence of a decision based queuing process: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, most tasks being rapidly executed, while a few experiencing very long waiting times. In contrast, priority blind execution is well approximated by uniform interevent statistics. We discuss two queuing models that capture human activity. The first model assumes that there are no limitations on the number of tasks an individual can hadle at any time, predicting that the waiting time of the individual tasks follow a heavy tailed distribution P(τw)˜τw-α with α=3/2 . The second model imposes limitations on the queue length, resulting in a heavy tailed waiting time distribution characterized by α=1 . We provide empirical evidence supporting the relevance of these two models to human activity patterns, showing that while emails, web browsing and library visitation display α=1 , the surface mail based communication belongs to the α=3/2 universality class. Finally, we discuss possible extension of the proposed queuing models and outline some future challenges in exploring the statistical mechanics of human dynamics.

Modeling bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics.

PubMed

Vázquez, Alexei; Oliveira, João Gama; Dezsö, Zoltán; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kondor, Imre; Barabási, Albert-László

2006-03-01

The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behavior into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. Here we provide direct evidence that for five human activity patterns, such as email and letter based communications, web browsing, library visits and stock trading, the timing of individual human actions follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity. We show that the bursty nature of human behavior is a consequence of a decision based queuing process: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, most tasks being rapidly executed, while a few experiencing very long waiting times. In contrast, priority blind execution is well approximated by uniform interevent statistics. We discuss two queuing models that capture human activity. The first model assumes that there are no limitations on the number of tasks an individual can handle at any time, predicting that the waiting time of the individual tasks follow a heavy tailed distribution P(tau(w)) approximately tau(w)(-alpha) with alpha=3/2. The second model imposes limitations on the queue length, resulting in a heavy tailed waiting time distribution characterized by alpha=1. We provide empirical evidence supporting the relevance of these two models to human activity patterns, showing that while emails, web browsing and library visitation display alpha=1, the surface mail based communication belongs to the alpha=3/2 universality class. Finally, we discuss possible extension of the proposed queuing models and outline some future challenges in exploring the statistical mechanics of human dynamics.

To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

2015-01-01

Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

ASSESSING AND PREVENTING THE SPREAD OF CONTAMINANTS IN A DRINKING WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Remote monitoring data, field studies, and the modeling software ? EPANET, can be used by drinking water utilities and consulting engineers to predict flow dynamics and information on the spatial distribution and concentration of contaminants in a drinking water system. A field ...

The Ionic Atmosphere around A-RNA: Poisson-Boltzmann and Molecular Dynamics Simulations

PubMed Central

Kirmizialtin, Serdal; Silalahi, Alexander R.J.; Elber, Ron; Fenley, Marcia O.

2012-01-01

The distributions of different cations around A-RNA are computed by Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) equation and replica exchange molecular dynamics (MD). Both the nonlinear PB and size-modified PB theories are considered. The number of ions bound to A-RNA, which can be measured experimentally, is well reproduced in all methods. On the other hand, the radial ion distribution profiles show differences between MD and PB. We showed that PB results are sensitive to ion size and functional form of the solvent dielectric region but not the solvent dielectric boundary definition. Size-modified PB agrees with replica exchange molecular dynamics much better than nonlinear PB when the ion sizes are chosen from atomistic simulations. The distribution of ions 14 Å away from the RNA central axis are reasonably well reproduced by size-modified PB for all ion types with a uniform solvent dielectric model and a sharp dielectric boundary between solvent and RNA. However, this model does not agree with MD for shorter distances from the A-RNA. A distance-dependent solvent dielectric function proposed by another research group improves the agreement for sodium and strontium ions, even for shorter distances from the A-RNA. However, Mg2+ distributions are still at significant variances for shorter distances. PMID:22385854

Sintering of polydisperse viscous droplets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Vasseur, Jérémie; Llewellin, Edward W.; Dingwell, Donald B.

2017-03-01

Sintering—or coalescence—of compacts of viscous droplets is driven by the interfacial tension between the droplets and the interstitial gas phase. The process, which occurs in a range of industrial and natural settings, such as the manufacture of ceramics and the welding of volcanic ash, causes the compact to densify, to become stronger, and to become less permeable. We investigate the role of droplet polydispersivity in sintering dynamics by conducting experiments in which populations of glass spheres with different size distributions are heated to temperatures above the glass transition interval. We quantify the progress of sintering by tracking changes in porosity with time. The sintering dynamics is modeled by treating the system as a random distribution of interstitial gas bubbles shrinking under the action of interfacial tension only. We identify the scaling between the polydispersivity of the initial droplets and the dynamics of bulk densification. The framework that we develop allows the sintering dynamics of arbitrary polydisperse populations of droplets to be predicted if the initial droplet (or particle) size distribution is known.

Background and Pickup Ion Velocity Distribution Dynamics in Titan's Plasma Environment: 3D Hybrid Simulation and Comparison with CAPS T9 Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipatov, A. S.; Sittler, E. C., Jr.; Hartle, R. E.; Cooper, J. F.; Simpson, D. G.

2011-01-01

In this report we discuss the ion velocity distribution dynamics from the 3D hybrid simulation. In our model the background, pickup, and ionospheric ions are considered as a particles, whereas the electrons are described as a fluid. Inhomogeneous photoionization, electron-impact ionization and charge exchange are included in our model. We also take into account the collisions between the ions and neutrals. The current simulation shows that mass loading by pickup ions H(+); H2(+), CH4(+) and N2(+) is stronger than in the previous simulations when O+ ions are introduced into the background plasma. In our hybrid simulations we use Chamberlain profiles for the atmospheric components. We also include a simple ionosphere model with average mass M = 28 amu ions that were generated inside the ionosphere. The moon is considered as a weakly conducting body. Special attention will be paid to comparing the simulated pickup ion velocity distribution with CAPS T9 observations. Our simulation shows an asymmetry of the ion density distribution and the magnetic field, including the formation of the Alfve n wing-like structures. The simulation also shows that the ring-like velocity distribution for pickup ions relaxes to a Maxwellian core and a shell-like halo.

Mussel dynamics model: A hydroinformatics tool for analyzing the effects of different stressors on the dynamics of freshwater mussel communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morales, Y.; Weber, L.J.; Mynett, A.E.; Newton, T.J.

2006-01-01

A model for simulating freshwater mussel population dynamics is presented. The model is a hydroinformatics tool that integrates principles from ecology, river hydraulics, fluid mechanics and sediment transport, and applies the individual-based modelling approach for simulating population dynamics. The general model layout, data requirements, and steps of the simulation process are discussed. As an illustration, simulation results from an application in a 10 km reach of the Upper Mississippi River are presented. The model was used to investigate the spatial distribution of mussels and the effects of food competition in native unionid mussel communities, and communities infested by Dreissena polymorpha, the zebra mussel. Simulation results were found to be realistic and coincided with data obtained from the literature. These results indicate that the model can be a useful tool for assessing the potential effects of different stressors on long-term population dynamics, and consequently, may improve the current understanding of cause and effect relationships in freshwater mussel communities. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The nitrate response of a lowland catchment and groundwater travel times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Ype; Rozemeijer, Joachim; de Rooij, Gerrit; van Geer, Frans

2010-05-01

Intensive agriculture in lowland catchments causes eutrophication of downstream waters. To determine effective measures to reduce the nutrient loads from upstream lowland catchments, we need to understand the origin of long-term and daily variations in surface water nutrient concentrations. Surface water concentrations are often linked to travel time distributions of water passing through the saturated and unsaturated soil of the contributing catchment. This distribution represents the contact time over which sorption, desorption and degradation takes place. However, travel time distributions are strongly influenced by processes like tube drain flow, overland flow and the dynamics of draining ditches and streams and therefore exhibit strong daily and seasonal variations. The study we will present is situated in the 6.6 km2 Hupsel brook catchment in The Netherlands. In this catchment nitrate and chloride concentrations have been intensively monitored for the past 26 years under steadily decreasing agricultural inputs. We described the complicated dynamics of subsurface water fluxes as streams, ditches and tube drains locally switch between active or passive depending on the ambient groundwater level by a groundwater model with high spatial and temporal resolutions. A transient particle tracking approach is used to derive a unique catchment-scale travel time distribution for each day during the 26 year model period. These transient travel time distributions are not smooth distributions, but distributions that are strongly spiked reflecting the contribution of past rainfall events to the current discharge. We will show that a catchment-scale mass response function approach that only describes catchment-scale mixing and degradation suffices to accurately reproduce observed chloride and nitrate surface water concentrations as long as the mass response functions include the dynamics of travel time distributions caused by the highly variable connectivity of the surface water network.

Thermodynamics of firms' growth

PubMed Central

Zambrano, Eduardo; Hernando, Alberto; Hernando, Ricardo; Plastino, Angelo

2015-01-01

The distribution of firms' growth and firms' sizes is a topic under intense scrutiny. In this paper, we show that a thermodynamic model based on the maximum entropy principle, with dynamical prior information, can be constructed that adequately describes the dynamics and distribution of firms' growth. Our theoretical framework is tested against a comprehensive database of Spanish firms, which covers, to a very large extent, Spain's economic activity, with a total of 1 155 142 firms evolving along a full decade. We show that the empirical exponent of Pareto's law, a rule often observed in the rank distribution of large-size firms, is explained by the capacity of economic system for creating/destroying firms, and that can be used to measure the health of a capitalist-based economy. Indeed, our model predicts that when the exponent is larger than 1, creation of firms is favoured; when it is smaller than 1, destruction of firms is favoured instead; and when it equals 1 (matching Zipf's law), the system is in a full macroeconomic equilibrium, entailing ‘free’ creation and/or destruction of firms. For medium and smaller firm sizes, the dynamical regime changes, the whole distribution can no longer be fitted to a single simple analytical form and numerical prediction is required. Our model constitutes the basis for a full predictive framework regarding the economic evolution of an ensemble of firms. Such a structure can be potentially used to develop simulations and test hypothetical scenarios, such as economic crisis or the response to specific policy measures. PMID:26510828

Domain size polydispersity effects on the structural and dynamical properties in lipid monolayers with phase coexistence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rufeil-Fiori, Elena; Banchio, Adolfo J.

Lipid monolayers with phase coexistence are a frequently used model for lipid membranes. In these systems, domains of the liquid-condensed phase always present size polydispersity. However, very few theoretical works consider size distribution effects on the monolayer properties. Because of the difference in surface densities, domains have excess dipolar density with respect to the surrounding liquid expanded phase, originating a dipolar inter-domain interaction. This interaction depends on the domain area, and hence the presence of a domain size distribution is associated with interaction polydispersity. Inter-domain interactions are fundamental to understanding the structure and dynamics of the monolayer. For this reason, it is expected that polydispersity significantly alters monolayer properties. By means of Brownian dynamics simulations, we study the radial distribution function (RDF), the average mean square displacement and the average time-dependent self-diffusion coefficient, D(t), of lipid monolayers with normal distributed size domains. It was found that polydispersity strongly affects the value of the interaction strength obtained, which is greatly underestimated if polydispersity is not considered. However, within a certain range of parameters, the RDF obtained from a polydisperse model can be well approximated by that of a monodisperse model, suitably fitting the interaction strength, even for 40% polydispersities. For small interaction strengths or small polydispersities, the polydisperse systems obtained from fitting the experimental RDF have an average mean square displacement and D(t) in good agreement with that of the monodisperse system.

Thermodynamics of firms' growth.

PubMed

Zambrano, Eduardo; Hernando, Alberto; Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio; Hernando, Ricardo; Plastino, Angelo

2015-11-06

The distribution of firms' growth and firms' sizes is a topic under intense scrutiny. In this paper, we show that a thermodynamic model based on the maximum entropy principle, with dynamical prior information, can be constructed that adequately describes the dynamics and distribution of firms' growth. Our theoretical framework is tested against a comprehensive database of Spanish firms, which covers, to a very large extent, Spain's economic activity, with a total of 1,155,142 firms evolving along a full decade. We show that the empirical exponent of Pareto's law, a rule often observed in the rank distribution of large-size firms, is explained by the capacity of economic system for creating/destroying firms, and that can be used to measure the health of a capitalist-based economy. Indeed, our model predicts that when the exponent is larger than 1, creation of firms is favoured; when it is smaller than 1, destruction of firms is favoured instead; and when it equals 1 (matching Zipf's law), the system is in a full macroeconomic equilibrium, entailing 'free' creation and/or destruction of firms. For medium and smaller firm sizes, the dynamical regime changes, the whole distribution can no longer be fitted to a single simple analytical form and numerical prediction is required. Our model constitutes the basis for a full predictive framework regarding the economic evolution of an ensemble of firms. Such a structure can be potentially used to develop simulations and test hypothetical scenarios, such as economic crisis or the response to specific policy measures. © 2015 The Authors.

Optimization of a new flow design for solid oxide cells using computational fluid dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duhn, Jakob Dragsbæk; Jensen, Anker Degn; Wedel, Stig; Wix, Christian

2016-12-01

Design of a gas distributor to distribute gas flow into parallel channels for Solid Oxide Cells (SOC) is optimized, with respect to flow distribution, using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling. The CFD model is based on a 3d geometric model and the optimized structural parameters include the width of the channels in the gas distributor and the area in front of the parallel channels. The flow of the optimized design is found to have a flow uniformity index value of 0.978. The effects of deviations from the assumptions used in the modelling (isothermal and non-reacting flow) are evaluated and it is found that a temperature gradient along the parallel channels does not affect the flow uniformity, whereas a temperature difference between the channels does. The impact of the flow distribution on the maximum obtainable conversion during operation is also investigated and the obtainable overall conversion is found to be directly proportional to the flow uniformity. Finally the effect of manufacturing errors is investigated. The design is shown to be robust towards deviations from design dimensions of at least ±0.1 mm which is well within obtainable tolerances.

Electro-osmotic flow of a model electrolyte

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wei; Singer, Sherwin J.; Zheng, Zhi; Conlisk, A. T.

2005-04-01

Electro-osmotic flow is studied by nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations in a model system chosen to elucidate various factors affecting the velocity profile and facilitate comparison with existing continuum theories. The model system consists of spherical ions and solvent, with stationary, uniformly charged walls that make a channel with a height of 20 particle diameters. We find that hydrodynamic theory adequately describes simple pressure-driven (Poiseuille) flow in this model. However, Poisson-Boltzmann theory fails to describe the ion distribution in important situations, and therefore continuum fluid dynamics based on the Poisson-Boltzmann ion distribution disagrees with simulation results in those situations. The failure of Poisson-Boltzmann theory is traced to the exclusion of ions near the channel walls resulting from reduced solvation of the ions in that region. When a corrected ion distribution is used as input for hydrodynamic theory, agreement with numerical simulations is restored. An analytic theory is presented that demonstrates that repulsion of the ions from the channel walls increases the flow rate, and attraction to the walls has the opposite effect. A recent numerical study of electro-osmotic flow is reanalyzed in the light of our findings, and the results conform well to our conclusions for the model system.

A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of riparian plant communities, a new integrative ecohydrological modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Arias, Alicia; Francés, Félix

2015-04-01

The Riparian Vegetation Dynamic Model (RVDM) integrates the impacts of the hydrological extremes on the vegetation, the vegetation evolution and the competition between different vegetation classes. Considering a daily time step and a detailed spatial resolution, RVDM allows the analysis of the dynamic vegetation distribution in riverine areas during a simulated period. The riparian vegetation wellbeing and distribution are considered to be conditioned by the river hydrodynamics in RVDM. Using biomass loss functions, the stress caused by hydrological extreme events is translated into changes on the distribution of the vegetation. These extreme events are considered as removal and asphyxia associated to floods, and wilt related to droughts. The variables considered to determine the impacts are water shear stress, water table elevation and the soil moisture, respectively. RVDM includes the modelling of the natural evolution of the vegetation. The potential recruitment in bared areas, the plant growth and the succession/retrogression between plant categories are included in the model conceptualization. The recruitment takes place when seeds presence, germination and seedlings establishment overcome, so it depends on the plant reproductive period and the environmental conditions. Light use efficiency determines the vegetation growth in terms of biomass production while the soil moisture limits this biomass production and the successional evolution. Finally, the competition modelling considers the advantages between successional patterns under the specific soil moisture conditions of each unit area. Several meteorological, morphological, hydrological and hydraulic inputs are required. In addition, an initial vegetation condition is required for RVDM to start the simulation period. The model results on new vegetation maps that are considered as new inputs in the next model step. Following this approach the model simulates iteratively al the processes day by day. This model represents an improvement respect to previous models in the way of understanding the riparian dynamics. Currently, RVDM has been already implemented in a Mediterranean semi-arid river reach and a sensitivity analysis to analyze the influence of the different vegetation parameters has been performed. The good results obtained indicate that the model is suitable for scenarios analysis and for environmental flows establishment.

Transient Dynamics Simulation of Airflow in a CT-Scanned Human Airway Tree: More or Fewer Terminal Bronchi?

PubMed Central

Zhang, Baihua; Li, Jianhua; Yue, Yong; Qian, Wei

2017-01-01

Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method, the feasibility of simulating transient airflow in a CT-based airway tree with more than 100 outlets for a whole respiratory period is studied, and the influence of truncations of terminal bronchi on CFD characteristics is investigated. After an airway model with 122 outlets is extracted from CT images, the transient airflow is simulated. Spatial and temporal variations of flow velocity, wall pressure, and wall shear stress are presented; the flow pattern and lobar distribution of air are gotten as well. All results are compared with those of a truncated model with 22 outlets. It is found that the flow pattern shows lobar heterogeneity that the near-wall air in the trachea is inhaled into the upper lobe while the center flow enters the other lobes, and the lobar distribution of air is significantly correlated with the outlet area ratio. The truncation decreases airflow to right and left upper lobes and increases the deviation of airflow distributions between inspiration and expiration. Simulating the transient airflow in an airway tree model with 122 bronchi using CFD is feasible. The model with more terminal bronchi decreases the difference between the lobar distributions at inspiration and at expiration. PMID:29333194

The Poisson model limits in NBA basketball: Complexity in team sports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martín-González, Juan Manuel; de Saá Guerra, Yves; García-Manso, Juan Manuel; Arriaza, Enrique; Valverde-Estévez, Teresa

2016-12-01

Team sports are frequently studied by researchers. There is presumption that scoring in basketball is a random process and that can be described using the Poisson Model. Basketball is a collaboration-opposition sport, where the non-linear local interactions among players are reflected in the evolution of the score that ultimately determines the winner. In the NBA, the outcomes of close games are often decided in the last minute, where fouls play a main role. We examined 6130 NBA games in order to analyze the time intervals between baskets and scoring dynamics. Most numbers of baskets (n) over a time interval (ΔT) follow a Poisson distribution, but some (e.g., ΔT = 10 s, n > 3) behave as a Power Law. The Poisson distribution includes most baskets in any game, in most game situations, but in close games in the last minute, the numbers of events are distributed following a Power Law. The number of events can be adjusted by a mixture of two distributions. In close games, both teams try to maintain their advantage solely in order to reach the last minute: a completely different game. For this reason, we propose to use the Poisson model as a reference. The complex dynamics will emerge from the limits of this model.

Three-dimensional fuel pin model validation by prediction of hydrogen distribution in cladding and comparison with experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aly, A.; Avramova, Maria; Ivanov, Kostadin

To correctly describe and predict this hydrogen distribution there is a need for multi-physics coupling to provide accurate three-dimensional azimuthal, radial, and axial temperature distributions in the cladding. Coupled high-fidelity reactor-physics codes with a sub-channel code as well as with a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool have been used to calculate detailed temperature distributions. These high-fidelity coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics code systems are coupled further with the fuel-performance BISON code with a kernel (module) for hydrogen. Both hydrogen migration and precipitation/dissolution are included in the model. Results from this multi-physics analysis is validated utilizing calculations of hydrogen distribution using models informed bymore » data from hydrogen experiments and PIE data.« less

A repository based on a dynamically extensible data model supporting multidisciplinary research in neuroscience.

PubMed

Corradi, Luca; Porro, Ivan; Schenone, Andrea; Momeni, Parastoo; Ferrari, Raffaele; Nobili, Flavio; Ferrara, Michela; Arnulfo, Gabriele; Fato, Marco M

2012-10-08

Robust, extensible and distributed databases integrating clinical, imaging and molecular data represent a substantial challenge for modern neuroscience. It is even more difficult to provide extensible software environments able to effectively target the rapidly changing data requirements and structures of research experiments. There is an increasing request from the neuroscience community for software tools addressing technical challenges about: (i) supporting researchers in the medical field to carry out data analysis using integrated bioinformatics services and tools; (ii) handling multimodal/multiscale data and metadata, enabling the injection of several different data types according to structured schemas; (iii) providing high extensibility, in order to address different requirements deriving from a large variety of applications simply through a user runtime configuration. A dynamically extensible data structure supporting collaborative multidisciplinary research projects in neuroscience has been defined and implemented. We have considered extensibility issues from two different points of view. First, the improvement of data flexibility has been taken into account. This has been done through the development of a methodology for the dynamic creation and use of data types and related metadata, based on the definition of "meta" data model. This way, users are not constrainted to a set of predefined data and the model can be easily extensible and applicable to different contexts. Second, users have been enabled to easily customize and extend the experimental procedures in order to track each step of acquisition or analysis. This has been achieved through a process-event data structure, a multipurpose taxonomic schema composed by two generic main objects: events and processes. Then, a repository has been built based on such data model and structure, and deployed on distributed resources thanks to a Grid-based approach. Finally, data integration aspects have been addressed by providing the repository application with an efficient dynamic interface designed to enable the user to both easily query the data depending on defined datatypes and view all the data of every patient in an integrated and simple way. The results of our work have been twofold. First, a dynamically extensible data model has been implemented and tested based on a "meta" data-model enabling users to define their own data types independently from the application context. This data model has allowed users to dynamically include additional data types without the need of rebuilding the underlying database. Then a complex process-event data structure has been built, based on this data model, describing patient-centered diagnostic processes and merging information from data and metadata. Second, a repository implementing such a data structure has been deployed on a distributed Data Grid in order to provide scalability both in terms of data input and data storage and to exploit distributed data and computational approaches in order to share resources more efficiently. Moreover, data managing has been made possible through a friendly web interface. The driving principle of not being forced to preconfigured data types has been satisfied. It is up to users to dynamically configure the data model for the given experiment or data acquisition program, thus making it potentially suitable for customized applications. Based on such repository, data managing has been made possible through a friendly web interface. The driving principle of not being forced to preconfigured data types has been satisfied. It is up to users to dynamically configure the data model for the given experiment or data acquisition program, thus making it potentially suitable for customized applications.

A repository based on a dynamically extensible data model supporting multidisciplinary research in neuroscience

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Robust, extensible and distributed databases integrating clinical, imaging and molecular data represent a substantial challenge for modern neuroscience. It is even more difficult to provide extensible software environments able to effectively target the rapidly changing data requirements and structures of research experiments. There is an increasing request from the neuroscience community for software tools addressing technical challenges about: (i) supporting researchers in the medical field to carry out data analysis using integrated bioinformatics services and tools; (ii) handling multimodal/multiscale data and metadata, enabling the injection of several different data types according to structured schemas; (iii) providing high extensibility, in order to address different requirements deriving from a large variety of applications simply through a user runtime configuration. Methods A dynamically extensible data structure supporting collaborative multidisciplinary research projects in neuroscience has been defined and implemented. We have considered extensibility issues from two different points of view. First, the improvement of data flexibility has been taken into account. This has been done through the development of a methodology for the dynamic creation and use of data types and related metadata, based on the definition of “meta” data model. This way, users are not constrainted to a set of predefined data and the model can be easily extensible and applicable to different contexts. Second, users have been enabled to easily customize and extend the experimental procedures in order to track each step of acquisition or analysis. This has been achieved through a process-event data structure, a multipurpose taxonomic schema composed by two generic main objects: events and processes. Then, a repository has been built based on such data model and structure, and deployed on distributed resources thanks to a Grid-based approach. Finally, data integration aspects have been addressed by providing the repository application with an efficient dynamic interface designed to enable the user to both easily query the data depending on defined datatypes and view all the data of every patient in an integrated and simple way. Results The results of our work have been twofold. First, a dynamically extensible data model has been implemented and tested based on a “meta” data-model enabling users to define their own data types independently from the application context. This data model has allowed users to dynamically include additional data types without the need of rebuilding the underlying database. Then a complex process-event data structure has been built, based on this data model, describing patient-centered diagnostic processes and merging information from data and metadata. Second, a repository implementing such a data structure has been deployed on a distributed Data Grid in order to provide scalability both in terms of data input and data storage and to exploit distributed data and computational approaches in order to share resources more efficiently. Moreover, data managing has been made possible through a friendly web interface. The driving principle of not being forced to preconfigured data types has been satisfied. It is up to users to dynamically configure the data model for the given experiment or data acquisition program, thus making it potentially suitable for customized applications. Conclusions Based on such repository, data managing has been made possible through a friendly web interface. The driving principle of not being forced to preconfigured data types has been satisfied. It is up to users to dynamically configure the data model for the given experiment or data acquisition program, thus making it potentially suitable for customized applications. PMID:23043673

Modelling, simulation and applications of longitudinal train dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, Colin; Spiryagin, Maksym; Wu, Qing; Sun, Yan Quan

2017-10-01

Significant developments in longitudinal train simulation and an overview of the approaches to train models and modelling vehicle force inputs are firstly presented. The most important modelling task, that of the wagon connection, consisting of energy absorption devices such as draft gears and buffers, draw gear stiffness, coupler slack and structural stiffness is then presented. Detailed attention is given to the modelling approaches for friction wedge damped and polymer draft gears. A significant issue in longitudinal train dynamics is the modelling and calculation of the input forces - the co-dimensional problem. The need to push traction performances higher has led to research and improvement in the accuracy of traction modelling which is discussed. A co-simulation method that combines longitudinal train simulation, locomotive traction control and locomotive vehicle dynamics is presented. The modelling of other forces, braking propulsion resistance, curve drag and grade forces are also discussed. As extensions to conventional longitudinal train dynamics, lateral forces and coupler impacts are examined in regards to interaction with wagon lateral and vertical dynamics. Various applications of longitudinal train dynamics are then presented. As an alternative to the tradition single wagon mass approach to longitudinal train dynamics, an example incorporating fully detailed wagon dynamics is presented for a crash analysis problem. Further applications of starting traction, air braking, distributed power, energy analysis and tippler operation are also presented.

Evidence of a Supermassive Black Hole in the Galaxy NGC 1023 From The Nuclear Stellar Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bower, G. A.; Green, R. F.; Bender, R.; Gebhardt, K.; Lauer, T. R.; Magorrian, J.; Richstone, D. O.; Danks, A.; Gull, T.; Hutchings, J.

2000-01-01

We analyze the nuclear stellar dynamics of the SBO galaxy NGC 1023, utilizing observational data both from the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph aboard the Hubble Space Telescope and from the ground. The stellar kinematics measured from these long-slit spectra show rapid rotation (V equals approx. 70 km/s at a distance of O.1 deg = 4.9 pc from the nucleus) and increasing velocity dispersion toward the nucleus (where sigma = 295 +/- 30 km/s). We model the observed stellar kinematics assuming an axisymmetric mass distribution with both two and three integrals of motion. Both modeling techniques point to the presence of a central dark compact mass (which presumably is a supermassive black hole) with confidence > 99%. The isotropic two-integral models yield a best-fitting black hole mass of (6.0 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 7) solar masses and mass-to-light ratio (M/L(sub v)) of 5.38 +/- 0.08, and the goodness-of-fit (CHI(exp 2)) is insensitive to reasonable values for the galaxy's inclination. The three-integral models, which non-parametrically fit the observed line-of-sight velocity distribution as a function of position in the galaxy, suggest a black hole mass of (3.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 7) solar masses and M/L(sub v) of 5.56 +/- 0.02 (internal errors), and the edge-on models are vastly superior fits over models at other inclinations. The internal dynamics in NGC 1023 as suggested by our best-fit three-integral model shows that the velocity distribution function at the nucleus is tangentially anisotropic, suggesting the presence of a nuclear stellar disk. The nuclear line of sight velocity distribution has enhanced wings at velocities >= 600 km/s from systemic, suggesting that perhaps we have detected a group of stars very close to the central dark mass.

[Three-dimensional stress analysis of periodontal ligament of mandible incisors fixed bridge abutments under dynamic loads by finite element method].

PubMed

Ma, Da; Tang, Liang; Pan, Yan-Huan

2007-12-01

Three-dimensional finite method was used to analyze stress and strain distributions of periodontal ligament of abutments under dynamic loads. Finite element analysis was performed on the model under dynamic loads with vertical and oblique directions. The stress and strain distributions and stress-time curves were analyzed to study the biomechanical behavior of periodontal ligament of abutments. The stress and strain distributions of periodontal ligament under dynamic load were same with the static load. But the maximum stress and strain decreased apparently. The rate of change was between 60%-75%. The periodontal ligament had time-dependent mechanical behaviors. Some level of residual stress in periodontal ligament was left after one mastication period. The stress-free time under oblique load was shorter than that of vertical load. The maximum stress and strain decrease apparently under dynamic loads. The periodontal ligament has time-dependent mechanical behaviors during one mastication. There is some level of residual stress left after one mastication period. The level of residual stress is related to the magnitude and the direction of loads. The direction of applied loads is one important factor that affected the stress distribution and accumulation and release of abutment periodontal ligament.

Effects of payoff functions and preference distributions in an adaptive population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. M.; Ting, Y. S.; Wong, K. Y. Michael

2008-03-01

Adaptive populations such as those in financial markets and distributed control can be modeled by the Minority Game. We consider how their dynamics depends on the agents’ initial preferences of strategies, when the agents use linear or quadratic payoff functions to evaluate their strategies. We find that the fluctuations of the population making certain decisions (the volatility) depends on the diversity of the distribution of the initial preferences of strategies. When the diversity decreases, more agents tend to adapt their strategies together. In systems with linear payoffs, this results in dynamical transitions from vanishing volatility to a nonvanishing one. For low signal dimensions, the dynamical transitions for the different signals do not take place at the same critical diversity. Rather, a cascade of dynamical transitions takes place when the diversity is reduced. In contrast, no phase transitions are found in systems with the quadratic payoffs. Instead, a basin boundary of attraction separates two groups of samples in the space of the agents’ decisions. Initial states inside this boundary converge to small volatility, while those outside diverge to a large one. Furthermore, when the preference distribution becomes more polarized, the dynamics becomes more erratic. All the above results are supported by good agreement between simulations and theory.

A distributed, dynamic, parallel computational model: the role of noise in velocity storage

PubMed Central

Merfeld, Daniel M.

2012-01-01

Networks of neurons perform complex calculations using distributed, parallel computation, including dynamic “real-time” calculations required for motion control. The brain must combine sensory signals to estimate the motion of body parts using imperfect information from noisy neurons. Models and experiments suggest that the brain sometimes optimally minimizes the influence of noise, although it remains unclear when and precisely how neurons perform such optimal computations. To investigate, we created a model of velocity storage based on a relatively new technique–“particle filtering”–that is both distributed and parallel. It extends existing observer and Kalman filter models of vestibular processing by simulating the observer model many times in parallel with noise added. During simulation, the variance of the particles defining the estimator state is used to compute the particle filter gain. We applied our model to estimate one-dimensional angular velocity during yaw rotation, which yielded estimates for the velocity storage time constant, afferent noise, and perceptual noise that matched experimental data. We also found that the velocity storage time constant was Bayesian optimal by comparing the estimate of our particle filter with the estimate of the Kalman filter, which is optimal. The particle filter demonstrated a reduced velocity storage time constant when afferent noise increased, which mimics what is known about aminoglycoside ablation of semicircular canal hair cells. This model helps bridge the gap between parallel distributed neural computation and systems-level behavioral responses like the vestibuloocular response and perception. PMID:22514288

Mutual Dependence Between Sedimentary Organic Carbon and Infaunal Macrobenthos Resolved by Mechanistic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenyan; Wirtz, Kai

2017-10-01

The mutual dependence between sedimentary total organic carbon (TOC) and infaunal macrobenthos is here quantified by a mechanistic model. The model describes (i) the vertical distribution of infaunal macrobenthic biomass resulting from a trade-off between nutritional benefit (quantity and quality of TOC) and the costs of burial (respiration) and mortality, and (ii) the variable vertical distribution of TOC being in turn shaped by bioturbation of local macrobenthos. In contrast to conventional approaches, our model emphasizes variations of bioturbation both spatially and temporally depending on local food resources and macrobenthic biomass. Our implementation of the dynamic interaction between TOC and infaunal macrobenthos is able to capture a temporal benthic response to both depositional and erosional environments and provides improved estimates of the material exchange flux at the sediment-water interface. Applications to literature data for the North Sea demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of the model and its potential as an analysis tool for the status of TOC and macrobenthos in marine sediments. Results indicate that the vertical distribution of infaunal biomass is shaped by both the quantity and the quality of OC, while the community structure is determined only by the quality of OC. Bioturbation intensity may differ by 1 order of magnitude over different seasons owing to variations in the OC input, resulting in a significant modulation on the distribution of OC. Our relatively simple implementation may further improve models of early diagenesis and marine food web dynamics by mechanistically connecting the vertical distribution of both TOC and macrobenthic biomass.

The potential energy landscape contribution to the dynamic heat capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Jonathan R.; McCoy, John D.

2011-05-01

The dynamic heat capacity of a simple polymeric, model glassformer was computed using molecular dynamics simulations by sinusoidally driving the temperature and recording the resultant energy. The underlying potential energy landscape of the system was probed by taking a time series of particle positions and quenching them. The resulting dynamic heat capacity demonstrates that the long time relaxation is the direct result of dynamics resulting from the potential energy landscape. Moreover, the equilibrium (low frequency) portion of the potential energy landscape contribution to the heat capacity is found to increase rapidly at low temperatures and at high packing fractions. This increase in the heat capacity is explained by a statistical mechanical model based on the distribution of minima in the potential energy landscape.

Adjustment of the dynamic weight distribution as a sensitive parameter for diagnosis of postural alteration in a rodent model of vestibular deficit

PubMed Central

Tighilet, Brahim; Péricat, David; Frelat, Alais; Cazals, Yves; Rastoldo, Guillaume; Boyer, Florent; Dumas, Olivier

2017-01-01

Vestibular disorders, by inducing significant posturo-locomotor and cognitive disorders, can significantly impair the most basic tasks of everyday life. Their precise diagnosis is essential to implement appropriate therapeutic countermeasures. Monitoring their evolution is also very important to validate or, on the contrary, to adapt the undertaken therapeutic actions. To date, the diagnosis methods of posturo-locomotor impairments are restricted to examinations that most often lack sensitivity and precision. In the present work we studied the alterations of the dynamic weight distribution in a rodent model of sudden and complete unilateral vestibular loss. We used a system of force sensors connected to a data analysis system to quantify in real time and in an automated way the weight bearing of the animal on the ground. We show here that sudden, unilateral, complete and permanent loss of the vestibular inputs causes a severe alteration of the dynamic ground weight distribution of vestibulo lesioned rodents. Characteristics of alterations in the dynamic weight distribution vary over time and follow the sequence of appearance and disappearance of the various symptoms that compose the vestibular syndrome. This study reveals for the first time that dynamic weight bearing is a very sensitive parameter for evaluating posturo-locomotor function impairment. Associated with more classical vestibular examinations, this paradigm can considerably enrich the methods for assessing and monitoring vestibular disorders. Systematic application of this type of evaluation to the dizzy or unstable patient could improve the detection of vestibular deficits and allow predicting better their impact on posture and walk. Thus it could also allow a better follow-up of the therapeutic approaches for rehabilitating gait and balance. PMID:29112981

Adjustment of the dynamic weight distribution as a sensitive parameter for diagnosis of postural alteration in a rodent model of vestibular deficit.

PubMed

Tighilet, Brahim; Péricat, David; Frelat, Alais; Cazals, Yves; Rastoldo, Guillaume; Boyer, Florent; Dumas, Olivier; Chabbert, Christian

2017-01-01

Vestibular disorders, by inducing significant posturo-locomotor and cognitive disorders, can significantly impair the most basic tasks of everyday life. Their precise diagnosis is essential to implement appropriate therapeutic countermeasures. Monitoring their evolution is also very important to validate or, on the contrary, to adapt the undertaken therapeutic actions. To date, the diagnosis methods of posturo-locomotor impairments are restricted to examinations that most often lack sensitivity and precision. In the present work we studied the alterations of the dynamic weight distribution in a rodent model of sudden and complete unilateral vestibular loss. We used a system of force sensors connected to a data analysis system to quantify in real time and in an automated way the weight bearing of the animal on the ground. We show here that sudden, unilateral, complete and permanent loss of the vestibular inputs causes a severe alteration of the dynamic ground weight distribution of vestibulo lesioned rodents. Characteristics of alterations in the dynamic weight distribution vary over time and follow the sequence of appearance and disappearance of the various symptoms that compose the vestibular syndrome. This study reveals for the first time that dynamic weight bearing is a very sensitive parameter for evaluating posturo-locomotor function impairment. Associated with more classical vestibular examinations, this paradigm can considerably enrich the methods for assessing and monitoring vestibular disorders. Systematic application of this type of evaluation to the dizzy or unstable patient could improve the detection of vestibular deficits and allow predicting better their impact on posture and walk. Thus it could also allow a better follow-up of the therapeutic approaches for rehabilitating gait and balance.

Carbon-Flow-Based Modeling of Ecophysiological Processes and Biomass Dynamics of Submersed Aquatic Plants

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

simulation modeling approach to describing carbon- flow-based, ecophysiological processes and biomass dynamics of fresh- water submersed aquatic plant...the distribution and abundance of SAV. In aquatic systems a small part of the irradiance can be reflected by the water surface, and further...to the fact that water temperatures in the lake were relatively low compared to air tem- peratures because of the large inflow of groundwater (Titus

Biophysical model of prokaryotic diversity in geothermal hot springs.

PubMed

Klales, Anna; Duncan, James; Nett, Elizabeth Janus; Kane, Suzanne Amador

2012-02-01

Recent studies of photosynthetic bacteria living in geothermal hot spring environments have revealed surprisingly complex ecosystems with an unexpected level of genetic diversity. One case of particular interest involves the distribution along hot spring thermal gradients of genetically distinct bacterial strains that differ in their preferred temperatures for reproduction and photosynthesis. In such systems, a single variable, temperature, defines the relevant environmental variation. In spite of this, each region along the thermal gradient exhibits multiple strains of photosynthetic bacteria adapted to several distinct thermal optima, rather than a single thermal strain adapted to the local environmental temperature. Here we analyze microbiology data from several ecological studies to show that the thermal distribution data exhibit several universal features independent of location and specific bacterial strain. These include the distribution of optimal temperatures of different thermal strains and the functional dependence of the net population density on temperature. We present a simple population dynamics model of these systems that is highly constrained by biophysical data and by physical features of the environment. This model can explain in detail the observed thermal population distributions, as well as certain features of population dynamics observed in laboratory studies of the same organisms. © 2012 American Physical Society

Preferred gait and walk-run transition speeds in ostriches measured using GPS-IMU sensors.

PubMed

Daley, Monica A; Channon, Anthony J; Nolan, Grant S; Hall, Jade

2016-10-15

The ostrich (Struthio camelus) is widely appreciated as a fast and agile bipedal athlete, and is a useful comparative bipedal model for human locomotion. Here, we used GPS-IMU sensors to measure naturally selected gait dynamics of ostriches roaming freely over a wide range of speeds in an open field and developed a quantitative method for distinguishing walking and running using accelerometry. We compared freely selected gait-speed distributions with previous laboratory measures of gait dynamics and energetics. We also measured the walk-run and run-walk transition speeds and compared them with those reported for humans. We found that ostriches prefer to walk remarkably slowly, with a narrow walking speed distribution consistent with minimizing cost of transport (CoT) according to a rigid-legged walking model. The dimensionless speeds of the walk-run and run-walk transitions are slower than those observed in humans. Unlike humans, ostriches transition to a run well below the mechanical limit necessitating an aerial phase, as predicted by a compass-gait walking model. When running, ostriches use a broad speed distribution, consistent with previous observations that ostriches are relatively economical runners and have a flat curve for CoT against speed. In contrast, horses exhibit U-shaped curves for CoT against speed, with a narrow speed range within each gait for minimizing CoT. Overall, the gait dynamics of ostriches moving freely over natural terrain are consistent with previous lab-based measures of locomotion. Nonetheless, ostriches, like humans, exhibit a gait-transition hysteresis that is not explained by steady-state locomotor dynamics and energetics. Further study is required to understand the dynamics of gait transitions. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, N. J.; Ribeiro, Marcelo B.

2013-05-01

This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin’s (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD). This is formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the population (˜99%), with the Pareto power law, representing the tiny richest part (˜1%). In line with Goodwin’s original model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the workers and the Paretian component with the class of capitalists. Since the GPD parameters are obtained for each year and the Goodwin macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use previously determined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters, as well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these quantities in Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin dynamics. This is done in the original Goodwin model and an extension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far as Brazilian data is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and quantitative agreement with both models in the studied time period, although the original one provides better data fit. Nevertheless, both models fall short of a good empirical agreement as they predict single center cycles which were not found in the data. We discuss the specific points where the Goodwin dynamics must be improved in order to provide a more realistic representation of the dynamics of economic systems.

Dynamic genome-scale metabolic modeling of the yeast Pichia pastoris.

PubMed

Saitua, Francisco; Torres, Paulina; Pérez-Correa, José Ricardo; Agosin, Eduardo

2017-02-21

Pichia pastoris shows physiological advantages in producing recombinant proteins, compared to other commonly used cell factories. This yeast is mostly grown in dynamic cultivation systems, where the cell's environment is continuously changing and many variables influence process productivity. In this context, a model capable of explaining and predicting cell behavior for the rational design of bioprocesses is highly desirable. Currently, there are five genome-scale metabolic reconstructions of P. pastoris which have been used to predict extracellular cell behavior in stationary conditions. In this work, we assembled a dynamic genome-scale metabolic model for glucose-limited, aerobic cultivations of Pichia pastoris. Starting from an initial model structure for batch and fed-batch cultures, we performed pre/post regression diagnostics to ensure that model parameters were identifiable, significant and sensitive. Once identified, the non-relevant ones were iteratively fixed until a priori robust modeling structures were found for each type of cultivation. Next, the robustness of these reduced structures was confirmed by calibrating the model with new datasets, where no sensitivity, identifiability or significance problems appeared in their parameters. Afterwards, the model was validated for the prediction of batch and fed-batch dynamics in the studied conditions. Lastly, the model was employed as a case study to analyze the metabolic flux distribution of a fed-batch culture and to unravel genetic and process engineering strategies to improve the production of recombinant Human Serum Albumin (HSA). Simulation of single knock-outs indicated that deviation of carbon towards cysteine and tryptophan formation improves HSA production. The deletion of methylene tetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase could increase the HSA volumetric productivity by 630%. Moreover, given specific bioprocess limitations and strain characteristics, the model suggests that implementation of a decreasing specific growth rate during the feed phase of a fed-batch culture results in a 25% increase of the volumetric productivity of the protein. In this work, we formulated a dynamic genome scale metabolic model of Pichia pastoris that yields realistic metabolic flux distributions throughout dynamic cultivations. The model can be calibrated with experimental data to rationally propose genetic and process engineering strategies to improve the performance of a P. pastoris strain of interest.

Linking river management to species conservation using dynamic landscape scale models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Buell, Gary R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hughes, W. Brian; Jacobson, Robert B.; Jones, John W.; Jones, S.A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Peterson, James T.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Schindler, J. Stephen; Shea, C.; Weaver, J.D.

2013-01-01

Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water management decisions. We present a framework and methods for integrating hydrology, geographic context and metapopulation processes to simulate effects of changes in streamflow on fish occupancy dynamics across a landscape of interconnected stream segments. We illustrate this approach using a 482 km2 catchment in the southeastern US supporting 50 or more stream fish species. A spatially distributed, deterministic and physically based hydrologic model is used to simulate daily streamflow for sub-basins composing the catchment. We use geographic data to characterize stream segments with respect to channel size, confinement, position and connectedness within the stream network. Simulated streamflow dynamics are then applied to model fish metapopulation dynamics in stream segments, using hypothesized effects of streamflow magnitude and variability on population processes, conditioned by channel characteristics. The resulting time series simulate spatially explicit, annual changes in species occurrences or assemblage metrics (e.g. species richness) across the catchment as outcomes of management scenarios. Sensitivity analyses using alternative, plausible links between streamflow components and metapopulation processes, or allowing for alternative modes of fish dispersal, demonstrate large effects of ecological uncertainty on model outcomes and highlight needed research and monitoring. Nonetheless, with uncertainties explicitly acknowledged, dynamic, landscape-scale simulations may prove useful for quantitatively comparing river management alternatives with respect to species conservation.

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

PubMed Central

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H.; Moore, Kara A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2016-01-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasise several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. PMID:26872305

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

PubMed

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-08-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial Patterns Study for Sediments from Lake Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

Accurately understanding the distribution of sediment measurements within large water bodies such as Lake Michigan is critical for modeling and understanding of carbon, nitrogen, silica and phosphorus dynamics. Several water quality models have been formulated and applied to the ...

Proceedings of the 3rd Annual SCOLE Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr. (Compiler)

1987-01-01

Topics addressed include: modeling and controlling the Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) configurations; slewing maneuvers; mathematical models; vibration damping; gravitational effects; structural dynamics; finite element method; distributed parameter system; on-line pulse control; stability augmentation; and stochastic processes.

Photonic integrated circuits unveil crisis-induced intermittency.

PubMed

Karsaklian Dal Bosco, Andreas; Akizawa, Yasuhiro; Kanno, Kazutaka; Uchida, Atsushi; Harayama, Takahisa; Yoshimura, Kazuyuki

2016-09-19

We experimentally investigate an intermittent route to chaos in a photonic integrated circuit consisting of a semiconductor laser with time-delayed optical feedback from a short external cavity. The transition from a period-doubling dynamics to a fully-developed chaos reveals a stage intermittently exhibiting these two dynamics. We unveil the bifurcation mechanism underlying this route to chaos by using the Lang-Kobayashi model and demonstrate that the process is based on a phenomenon of attractor expansion initiated by a particular distribution of the local Lyapunov exponents. We emphasize on the crucial importance of the distribution of the steady-state solutions introduced by the time-delayed feedback on the existence of this intermittent dynamics.

A lattice-based model of rotavirus epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lara-Sagahón, A.; Govezensky, T.; Méndez-Sánchez, R. A.; José, M. V.

2006-01-01

The cyclic recurrence of childhood rotavirus epidemics in unvaccinated populations provides one of the best documented phenomena in population dynamics and can become a paradigm for epidemic studies. Herein we analyse the monthly incidence of rotavirus infection from the city of Melbourne, Australia during 1976-2003. We show that there is an inverse nonlinear relationship of the cumulative distribution of the number of cases per month in a log-log plot. It is also shown that the rate of transmission of rotavirus infection follows a symmetric distribution centered on zero. A wavelet phase analysis of rotavirus epidemics is also carried out. We test the hypothesis that rotavirus dynamics could be a realization of a forest-fire model with sparks and with immune trees. Some statistical properties of this model turn out to be similar to the above results of actual rotavirus data.

Are Binary Separations related to their System Mass?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterzik, M. F.; Durisen, R. H.

2004-08-01

We compile most recent multiplicity fractions and binary separation distributions for different primary masses, including very low-mass and brown dwarf primaries, and compare them with dynamical decay models of small-N clusters. The model predictions are based on detailed numerical calculations of the internal cluster dynamics, as well as on Monte-Carlo methods. Both observations and models reflect the same trends: (1) The multiplicity fraction is an increasing function of the primary mass. (2) The mean binary separations are increasing with the system mass in the sense that very low-mass binaries have average separations around ≈ 4AU, while the binary separation distribution for solar-type primaries peaks at ≈ 40AU. M-type binary systems apparently preferentially populate intermediate separations. Similar specific energy at the time of cluster formation for all cluster masses can possibly explain this trend.

Multipole Vortex Blobs (MVB): Symplectic Geometry and Dynamics.

PubMed

Holm, Darryl D; Jacobs, Henry O

2017-01-01

Vortex blob methods are typically characterized by a regularization length scale, below which the dynamics are trivial for isolated blobs. In this article, we observe that the dynamics need not be trivial if one is willing to consider distributional derivatives of Dirac delta functionals as valid vorticity distributions. More specifically, a new singular vortex theory is presented for regularized Euler fluid equations of ideal incompressible flow in the plane. We determine the conditions under which such regularized Euler fluid equations may admit vorticity singularities which are stronger than delta functions, e.g., derivatives of delta functions. We also describe the symplectic geometry associated with these augmented vortex structures, and we characterize the dynamics as Hamiltonian. Applications to the design of numerical methods similar to vortex blob methods are also discussed. Such findings illuminate the rich dynamics which occur below the regularization length scale and enlighten our perspective on the potential for regularized fluid models to capture multiscale phenomena.

Quantum decision-maker theory and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, Michail; Meyers, Ronald E.; Deacon, Keith S.

2000-07-01

A quantum device simulating the human decision making process is introduced. It consists of quantum recurrent nets generating stochastic processes which represent the motor dynamics, and of classical neural nets describing the evolution of probabilities of these processes which represent the mental dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from the mental to motor dynamics which changes the stochastic matrix based upon the probability distribution. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledge- base stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions. As a result, the coupled motor-mental dynamics is described by a nonlinear version of Markov chains which can decrease entropy without an external source of information. Applications to common sense based decisions as well as to evolutionary games are discussed. An example exhibiting self-organization is computed using quantum computer simulation. Force on force and mutual aircraft engagements using the quantum decision maker dynamics are considered.

A lattice model for influenza spreading.

PubMed

Liccardo, Antonella; Fierro, Annalisa

2013-01-01

We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

A Global, Multi-Waveband Model for the Zodiacal Cloud

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grogan, Keith; Dermott, Stanley F.; Kehoe, Thomas J. J.

2003-01-01

This recently completed three-year project was undertaken by the PI at the University of Florida, NASA Goddard and JPL, and by the Co-I and Collaborator at the University of Florida. The funding was used to support a continuation of research conducted at the University of Florida over the last decade which focuses on the dynamics of dust particles in the interplanetary environment. The main objectives of this proposal were: To produce improved dynamical models of the zodiacal cloud by performing numerical simulations of the orbital evolution of asteroidal and cometary dust particles. To provide visualizations of the results using our visualization software package, SIMUL, simulating the viewing geometries of IRAS and COBE and comparing the model results with archived data. To use the results to provide a more accurate model of the brightness distribution of the zodiacal cloud than existing empirical models. In addition, our dynamical approach can provide insight into fundamental properties of the cloud, including but not limited to the total mass and surface area of dust, the size-frequency distribution of dust, and the relative contributions of asteroidal and cometary material. The model can also be used to provide constraints on trace signals from other sources, such as dust associated with the "Plutinos" , objects captured in the 2:3 resonance with Neptune.

MODELING THE FORMATION OF SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOL WITHIN A COMPREHENSIVE AIR QUALITY MODEL SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

The aerosol component of the CMAQ model is designed to be an efficient and economical depiction of aerosol dynamics in the atmosphere. The approach taken represents the particle size distribution as the superposition of three lognormal subdistributions, called modes. The proces...

Optimal design of stimulus experiments for robust discrimination of biochemical reaction networks.

PubMed

Flassig, R J; Sundmacher, K

2012-12-01

Biochemical reaction networks in the form of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide a powerful modeling tool for understanding the dynamics of biochemical processes. During the early phase of modeling, scientists have to deal with a large pool of competing nonlinear models. At this point, discrimination experiments can be designed and conducted to obtain optimal data for selecting the most plausible model. Since biological ODE models have widely distributed parameters due to, e.g. biologic variability or experimental variations, model responses become distributed. Therefore, a robust optimal experimental design (OED) for model discrimination can be used to discriminate models based on their response probability distribution functions (PDFs). In this work, we present an optimal control-based methodology for designing optimal stimulus experiments aimed at robust model discrimination. For estimating the time-varying model response PDF, which results from the nonlinear propagation of the parameter PDF under the ODE dynamics, we suggest using the sigma-point approach. Using the model overlap (expected likelihood) as a robust discrimination criterion to measure dissimilarities between expected model response PDFs, we benchmark the proposed nonlinear design approach against linearization with respect to prediction accuracy and design quality for two nonlinear biological reaction networks. As shown, the sigma-point outperforms the linearization approach in the case of widely distributed parameter sets and/or existing multiple steady states. Since the sigma-point approach scales linearly with the number of model parameter, it can be applied to large systems for robust experimental planning. An implementation of the method in MATLAB/AMPL is available at http://www.uni-magdeburg.de/ivt/svt/person/rf/roed.html. flassig@mpi-magdeburg.mpg.de Supplementary data are are available at Bioinformatics online.

Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata.

PubMed

Yao, Zhenwei

2017-12-01

Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhenwei

2017-12-01

Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

A Multiscale Survival Process for Modeling Human Activity Patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, Tianyang; Cui, Peng; Song, Chaoming; Zhu, Wenwu; Yang, Shiqiang

2016-01-01

Human activity plays a central role in understanding large-scale social dynamics. It is well documented that individual activity pattern follows bursty dynamics characterized by heavy-tailed interevent time distributions. Here we study a large-scale online chatting dataset consisting of 5,549,570 users, finding that individual activity pattern varies with timescales whereas existing models only approximate empirical observations within a limited timescale. We propose a novel approach that models the intensity rate of an individual triggering an activity. We demonstrate that the model precisely captures corresponding human dynamics across multiple timescales over five orders of magnitudes. Our model also allows extracting the population heterogeneity of activity patterns, characterized by a set of individual-specific ingredients. Integrating our approach with social interactions leads to a wide range of implications.

Review of Recent Development of Dynamic Wind Farm Equivalent Models Based on Big Data Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chenggen; Zhou, Qian; Han, Mingzhe; Lv, Zhan’ao; Hou, Xiao; Zhao, Haoran; Bu, Jing

2018-04-01

Recently, the big data mining method has been applied in dynamic wind farm equivalent modeling. In this paper, its recent development with present research both domestic and overseas is reviewed. Firstly, the studies of wind speed prediction, equivalence and its distribution in the wind farm are concluded. Secondly, two typical approaches used in the big data mining method is introduced, respectively. For single wind turbine equivalent modeling, it focuses on how to choose and identify equivalent parameters. For multiple wind turbine equivalent modeling, the following three aspects are concentrated, i.e. aggregation of different wind turbine clusters, the parameters in the same cluster, and equivalence of collector system. Thirdly, an outlook on the development of dynamic wind farm equivalent models in the future is discussed.

The use of distributed hydrological models for the Gard 2002 flash flood event: Analysis of associated hydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braud, Isabelle; Roux, Hélène; Anquetin, Sandrine; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Manus, Claire; Viallet, Pierre; Dartus, Denis

2010-11-01

SummaryThis paper presents a detailed analysis of the September 8-9, 2002 flash flood event in the Gard region (southern France) using two distributed hydrological models: CVN built within the LIQUID® hydrological platform and MARINE. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization, infiltration and water redistribution representation, and river flow transfer. MARINE can also account for subsurface lateral flow. Both models are set up using the same available information, namely a DEM and a pedology map. They are forced with high resolution radar rainfall data over a set of 18 sub-catchments ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2 and are run without calibration. To begin with, models simulations are assessed against post field estimates of the time of peak and the maximum peak discharge showing a fair agreement for both models. The results are then discussed in terms of flow dynamics, runoff coefficients and soil saturation dynamics. The contribution of the subsurface lateral flow is also quantified using the MARINE model. This analysis highlights that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics. High rainfall peak intensities are very influential of the maximum peak discharge for both models, but especially for the CVN model which has a simplified overland flow transfer. The river bed roughness also influences the peak intensity and time. Soil spatial representation is shown to have a significant role on runoff coefficients and on the spatial variability of saturation dynamics. Simulated soil saturation is found to be strongly related with soil depth and initial storage deficit maps, due to a full saturation of most of the area at the end of the event. When activated, the signature of subsurface lateral flow is also visible in the spatial patterns of soil saturation with higher values concentrating along the river network. However, the data currently available do not allow the assessment of both patterns. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for enhancing field observations in order to progress in process understanding and gather a larger set of data to improve the realism of distributed models.

The fossilized size distribution of the main asteroid belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottke, William F.; Durda, Daniel D.; Nesvorný, David; Jedicke, Robert; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Vokrouhlický, David; Levison, Hal

2005-05-01

Planet formation models suggest the primordial main belt experienced a short but intense period of collisional evolution shortly after the formation of planetary embryos. This period is believed to have lasted until Jupiter reached its full size, when dynamical processes (e.g., sweeping resonances, excitation via planetary embryos) ejected most planetesimals from the main belt zone. The few planetesimals left behind continued to undergo comminution at a reduced rate until the present day. We investigated how this scenario affects the main belt size distribution over Solar System history using a collisional evolution model (CoEM) that accounts for these events. CoEM does not explicitly include results from dynamical models, but instead treats the unknown size of the primordial main belt and the nature/timing of its dynamical depletion using innovative but approximate methods. Model constraints were provided by the observed size frequency distribution of the asteroid belt, the observed population of asteroid families, the cratered surface of differentiated Asteroid (4) Vesta, and the relatively constant crater production rate of the Earth and Moon over the last 3 Gyr. Using CoEM, we solved for both the shape of the initial main belt size distribution after accretion and the asteroid disruption scaling law QD∗. In contrast to previous efforts, we find our derived QD∗ function is very similar to results produced by numerical hydrocode simulations of asteroid impacts. Our best fit results suggest the asteroid belt experienced as much comminution over its early history as it has since it reached its low-mass state approximately 3.9-4.5 Ga. These results suggest the main belt's wavy-shaped size-frequency distribution is a "fossil" from this violent early epoch. We find that most diameter D≳120 km asteroids are primordial, with their physical properties likely determined during the accretion epoch. Conversely, most smaller asteroids are byproducts of fragmentation events. The observed changes in the asteroid spin rate and lightcurve distributions near D˜100-120 km are likely to be a byproduct of this difference. Estimates based on our results imply the primordial main belt population (in the form of D<1000 km bodies) was 150-250 times larger than it is today, in agreement with recent dynamical simulations.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling

PubMed Central

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-01-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km2 to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere. PMID:22686347

Elastohydrodynamics of microfilament under distributed body actuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, T. Sonamani; Yadava, R. D. S.

2018-05-01

The dynamics of an active filament in low Reynolds (Re) number regime is analyzed under distributed body actuation represented by the sliding filament model. The governing elastohydrodynamic equations are formulated by assuming the resistive force theory (RFT). The effect of geometric nonlinearity in bending stiffness on the propulsive thrust has been analyzed where the former is introduced by cross-sectional tapering. Two types of boundary conditions (clamped-free and hinged-free) are analyzed. A comparison with the uniform filament dynamics reveals that the tapering enhances the thrust under both types of boundary conditions.

Statistical physics, seismogenesis, and seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, Ian

1996-11-01

The scaling properties of earthquake populations show remarkable similarities to those observed at or near the critical point of other composite systems in statistical physics. This has led to the development of a variety of different physical models of seismogenesis as a critical phenomenon, involving locally nonlinear dynamics, with simplified rheologies exhibiting instability or avalanche-type behavior, in a material composed of a large number of discrete elements. In particular, it has been suggested that earthquakes are an example of a "self-organized critical phenomenon" analogous to a sandpile that spontaneously evolves to a critical angle of repose in response to the steady supply of new grains at the summit. In this stationary state of marginal stability the distribution of avalanche energies is a power law, equivalent to the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude law, and the behavior is relatively insensitive to the details of the dynamics. Here we review the results of some of the composite physical models that have been developed to simulate seismogenesis on different scales during (1) dynamic slip on a preexisting fault, (2) fault growth, and (3) fault nucleation. The individual physical models share some generic features, such as a dynamic energy flux applied by tectonic loading at a constant strain rate, strong local interactions, and fluctuations generated either dynamically or by fixed material heterogeneity, but they differ significantly in the details of the assumed dynamics and in the methods of numerical solution. However, all exhibit critical or near-critical behavior, with behavior quantitatively consistent with many of the observed fractal or multifractal scaling laws of brittle faulting and earthquakes, including the Gutenberg-Richter law. Some of the results are sensitive to the details of the dynamics and hence are not strict examples of self-organized criticality. Nevertheless, the results of these different physical models share some generic statistical properties similar to the "universal" behavior seen in a wide variety of critical phenomena, with significant implications for practical problems in probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation. In particular, the notion of self-organized criticality (or near-criticality) gives a scientific rationale for the a priori assumption of "stationarity" used as a first step in the prediction of the future level of hazard. The Gutenberg-Richter law (a power law in energy or seismic moment) is found to apply only within a finite scale range, both in model and natural seismicity. Accordingly, the frequency-magnitude distribution can be generalized to a gamma distribution in energy or seismic moment (a power law, with an exponential tail). This allows extrapolations of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the maximum credible magnitude to be constrained by observed seismic or tectonic moment release rates. The answers to other questions raised are less clear, for example, the effect of the a priori assumption of a Poisson process in a system with strong local interactions, and the impact of zoning a potentially multifractal distribution of epicentres with smooth polygons. The results of some models show premonitory patterns of seismicity which could in principle be used as mainshock precursors. However, there remains no consensus, on both theoretical and practical grounds, on the possibility or otherwise of reliable intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Propagating waves can explain irregular neural dynamics.

PubMed

Keane, Adam; Gong, Pulin

2015-01-28

Cortical neurons in vivo fire quite irregularly. Previous studies about the origin of such irregular neural dynamics have given rise to two major models: a balanced excitation and inhibition model, and a model of highly synchronized synaptic inputs. To elucidate the network mechanisms underlying synchronized synaptic inputs and account for irregular neural dynamics, we investigate a spatially extended, conductance-based spiking neural network model. We show that propagating wave patterns with complex dynamics emerge from the network model. These waves sweep past neurons, to which they provide highly synchronized synaptic inputs. On the other hand, these patterns only emerge from the network with balanced excitation and inhibition; our model therefore reconciles the two major models of irregular neural dynamics. We further demonstrate that the collective dynamics of propagating wave patterns provides a mechanistic explanation for a range of irregular neural dynamics, including the variability of spike timing, slow firing rate fluctuations, and correlated membrane potential fluctuations. In addition, in our model, the distributions of synaptic conductance and membrane potential are non-Gaussian, consistent with recent experimental data obtained using whole-cell recordings. Our work therefore relates the propagating waves that have been widely observed in the brain to irregular neural dynamics. These results demonstrate that neural firing activity, although appearing highly disordered at the single-neuron level, can form dynamical coherent structures, such as propagating waves at the population level. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/351591-15$15.00/0.

Invariance in the recurrence of large returns and the validation of models of price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Lo-Bin; Geman, Stuart; Hsieh, Fushing; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

2013-08-01

Starting from a robust, nonparametric definition of large returns (“excursions”), we study the statistics of their occurrences, focusing on the recurrence process. The empirical waiting-time distribution between excursions is remarkably invariant to year, stock, and scale (return interval). This invariance is related to self-similarity of the marginal distributions of returns, but the excursion waiting-time distribution is a function of the entire return process and not just its univariate probabilities. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, market-time transformations based on volume or trades, and generalized (Lévy) random-walk models all fail to fit the statistical structure of excursions.