Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Sun, Yehuan; Cameron, Scott; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Weinstein, Philip; Bi, Peng

2017-02-01

This study aims to (1) investigate the associations between climatic factors and dengue; and (2) identify the susceptible subgroups. De-identified daily dengue cases in Guangzhou for 2005-2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Weather data were downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to graphically demonstrate the three-dimensional temperature-dengue association. Generalised estimating equation models (GEE) with piecewise linear spline functions were used to quantify the temperature-dengue associations. Threshold values were estimated using a broken-stick model. Middle-aged and older people, people undertaking household duties, retirees, and those unemployed were at high risk of dengue. Reversed U-shaped non-linear associations were found between ambient temperature, relative humidity, extreme wind velocity, and dengue. The optimal maximum temperature (T max ) range for dengue transmission in Guangzhou was 21.6-32.9°C, and 11.2-23.7°C for minimum temperature (T min ). A 1°C increase of T max and T min within these ranges was associated with 11.9% and 9.9% increase in dengue at lag0, respectively. Although lag effects of temperature were observed for up to 141 days for T max and 150 days for T min , the maximum lag effects were observed at 32 days and 39 days respectively. Average relative humidity was negatively associated with dengue when it exceeded 78.9%. Maximum wind velocity (>10.7m/s) inhibited dengue transmission. Climatic factors had significant impacts on dengue in Guangzhou. Lag effects of temperature on dengue lasted the local whole epidemic season. To reduce the likely increasing dengue burden, more efforts are needed to strengthen the capacity building of public health systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physiological Equivalent Temperature Index and mortality in Tabriz (The northwest of Iran).

PubMed

Sharafkhani, Rahim; Khanjani, Narges; Bakhtiari, Bahram; Jahani, Yunes; Sadegh Tabrizi, Jafar

2018-01-01

There are few epidemiological studies about climate change and the effect of temperature variation on health using human thermal indices such as the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) Index in Iran. This study was conducted in Tabriz, the northwest of Iran and Distributed Lag Non-linear Models (DLNM) combined with quasi-Poisson regression models were used to assess the impacts of PET on mortality by using the DLNM Package in R Software. The effect of air pollutants, time trend, day of the week and holidays were controlled as confounders. There was a significant relation between high (30°C, 27°C) and low (-0.8°C, -9.2°C and -14.2°C) PET and total (non-accidental) mortality; and a significant increase in respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in high PET values. Heat stress increased Cumulative Relative Risk (CRR) for total (non-accidental), respiratory and cardiovascular mortality significantly (CRR Non Accidental Death, PET=30°C, lag 0-30 =1.67, 95%CI: 1.31-2.13; CRR Respiratory Death, PET=30°C, lag 0-13 =1.88, 95%CI: 1.30-2.72; CRR Cardiovascular Death, PET=30°C, lag0-30 =1.67 95%CI: 1.16-2.40). Heat stress increases the risk of total (non-accidental), respiratory mortality, but cold stress decreases the risk of total (non-accidental) mortality in Tabriz which is one of the cold cities of Iran. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ambient temperature and coronary heart disease mortality in Beijing, China: a time series study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Many studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality. However, less evidence is available on the temperature effects on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, especially in China. In this study, we examined the relationship between ambient temperature and CHD mortality in Beijing, China during 2000 to 2011. In addition, we compared time series and time-stratified case-crossover models for the non-linear effects of temperature. Methods We examined the effects of temperature on CHD mortality using both time series and time-stratified case-crossover models. We also assessed the effects of temperature on CHD mortality by subgroups: gender (female and male) and age (age > =65 and age < 65). We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the non-linear effects of temperature on CHD mortality up to 15 lag days. We used Akaike information criterion to assess the model fit for the two designs. Results The time series models had a better model fit than time-stratified case-crossover models. Both designs showed that the relationships between temperature and group-specific CHD mortality were non-linear. Extreme cold and hot temperatures significantly increased the risk of CHD mortality. Hot effects were acute and short-term, while cold effects were delayed by two days and lasted for five days. The old people and women were more sensitive to extreme cold and hot temperatures than young and men. Conclusions This study suggests that time series models performed better than time-stratified case-crossover models according to the model fit, even though they produced similar non-linear effects of temperature on CHD mortality. In addition, our findings indicate that extreme cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of CHD mortality in Beijing, China, particularly for women and old people. PMID:22909034

Air pollution is associated with primary health care visits for asthma in Sweden: A case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model.

PubMed

Taj, Tahir; Jakobsson, Kristina; Stroh, Emilie; Oudin, Anna

2016-05-01

Air pollution can increase the symptoms of asthma and has an acute effect on the number of emergency room visits and hospital admissions because of asthma, but little is known about the effect of air pollution on the number of primary health care (PHC) visits for asthma. To investigate the association between air pollution and the number of PHC visits for asthma in Scania, southern Sweden. Data on daily PHC visits for asthma were obtained from a regional healthcare database in Scania, which covers approximately half a million people. Air pollution data from 2005 to 2010 were obtained from six urban background stations. We used a case-crossover study design and a distributed lag non-linear model in the analysis. The air pollution levels were generally within the EU air quality guidelines. The mean number of daily PHC visits for asthma was 34. The number of PHC visits increased by 5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.91-6.25%) with every 10µg m(-3) increase in daily mean NO2 lag (0-15), suggesting that daily air pollution levels are associated with PHC visits for asthma. Even though the air quality in Scania between 2005 and 2010 was within EU's guidelines, the number of PHC visits for asthma increased with increasing levels of air pollution. This suggests that as well as increasing hospital and emergency room visits, air pollution increases the burden on PHC due to milder symptoms of asthma. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China.

PubMed

Huang, Jiao; Chen, Shi; Wu, Yang; Tong, Yeqing; Wang, Lei; Zhu, Min; Hu, Shuhua; Guan, Xuhua; Wei, Sheng

2018-01-31

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a substantial burden throughout Asia, but the effects of temperature pattern on HFMD risk are inconsistent. To quantify the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence, Wuhan was chosen as the study site because of its high temperature variability and high HFMD incidence. Daily series of HFMD counts and meteorological variables during 2010-2015 were obtained. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to characterize the temperature-HFMD relationship and to assess its variability across different ages, genders, and types of child care. Totally, 80,219 patients of 0-5 years experienced HFMD in 2010-2015 in Wuhan. The cumulative relative risk of HFMD increased linearly with temperature over 7 days (lag0-7), while it presented as an approximately inverted V-shape over 14 days (lag0-14). The cumulative relative risk at lag0-14 peaked at 26.4 °C with value of 2.78 (95%CI: 2.08-3.72) compared with the 5 th percentile temperature (1.7 °C). Subgroup analyses revealed that children attended daycare were more vulnerable to temperature variation than those cared for at home. This study suggests that public health actions should take into consideration local weather conditions and demographic characteristics.

Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2015-07-01

Although the impact of extreme heat and cold on mortality has been documented in recent years, few studies have investigated whether variation in susceptibility to extreme temperatures has changed in Japan. We used data on daily total mortality and mean temperatures in Fukuoka, Japan, for 1973-2012. We used time-series analysis to assess the effects of extreme hot and low temperatures on all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, gender, and age, adjusting for time trends. We used a multivariate meta-analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate pooled non-linear lag-response relationships associated with extreme temperatures on mortality. The relative risk of mortality increased during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time. The mortality risk was higher during cold extremes for the entire study period, with a dispersed pattern across decades. Meta-analysis showed that both heat and cold extremes increased the risk of mortality. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for several days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Our study provides quantitative evidence that extreme heat and low temperatures were significantly and non-linearly associated with the increased risk of mortality with substantial variation. Our results suggest that timely preventative measures are important for extreme high temperatures, whereas several days' protection should be provided for extreme low temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-linear dual-phase-lag model for analyzing heat transfer phenomena in living tissues during thermal ablation.

PubMed

Kumar, P; Kumar, Dinesh; Rai, K N

2016-08-01

In this article, a non-linear dual-phase-lag (DPL) bio-heat transfer model based on temperature dependent metabolic heat generation rate is derived to analyze the heat transfer phenomena in living tissues during thermal ablation treatment. The numerical solution of the present non-linear problem has been done by finite element Runge-Kutta (4,5) method which combines the essence of Runge-Kutta (4,5) method together with finite difference scheme. Our study demonstrates that at the thermal ablation position temperature predicted by non-linear and linear DPL models show significant differences. A comparison has been made among non-linear DPL, thermal wave and Pennes model and it has been found that non-linear DPL and thermal wave bio-heat model show almost same nature whereas non-linear Pennes model shows significantly different temperature profile at the initial stage of thermal ablation treatment. The effect of Fourier number and Vernotte number (relaxation Fourier number) on temperature profile in presence and absence of externally applied heat source has been studied in detail and it has been observed that the presence of externally applied heat source term highly affects the efficiency of thermal treatment method. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed lags time series analysis versus linear correlation analysis (Pearson's r) in identifying the relationship between antipseudomonal antibiotic consumption and the susceptibility of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates in a single Intensive Care Unit of a tertiary hospital.

PubMed

Erdeljić, Viktorija; Francetić, Igor; Bošnjak, Zrinka; Budimir, Ana; Kalenić, Smilja; Bielen, Luka; Makar-Aušperger, Ksenija; Likić, Robert

2011-05-01

The relationship between antibiotic consumption and selection of resistant strains has been studied mainly by employing conventional statistical methods. A time delay in effect must be anticipated and this has rarely been taken into account in previous studies. Therefore, distributed lags time series analysis and simple linear correlation were compared in their ability to evaluate this relationship. Data on monthly antibiotic consumption for ciprofloxacin, piperacillin/tazobactam, carbapenems and cefepime as well as Pseudomonas aeruginosa susceptibility were retrospectively collected for the period April 2006 to July 2007. Using distributed lags analysis, a significant temporal relationship was identified between ciprofloxacin, meropenem and cefepime consumption and the resistance rates of P. aeruginosa isolates to these antibiotics. This effect was lagged for ciprofloxacin and cefepime [1 month (R=0.827, P=0.039) and 2 months (R=0.962, P=0.001), respectively] and was simultaneous for meropenem (lag 0, R=0.876, P=0.002). Furthermore, a significant concomitant effect of meropenem consumption on the appearance of multidrug-resistant P. aeruginosa strains (resistant to three or more representatives of classes of antibiotics) was identified (lag 0, R=0.992, P<0.001). This effect was not delayed and it was therefore identified both by distributed lags analysis and the Pearson's correlation coefficient. Correlation coefficient analysis was not able to identify relationships between antibiotic consumption and bacterial resistance when the effect was delayed. These results indicate that the use of diverse statistical methods can yield significantly different results, thus leading to the introduction of possibly inappropriate infection control measures. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

PubMed

Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

2015-10-01

Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relation between germination and mycelium growth of individual fungal spores.

PubMed

Gougouli, Maria; Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos P

2013-02-15

The relation between germination time and lag time of mycelium growth of individual spores was studied by combining microscopic and macroscopic techniques. The radial growth of a large number (100-200) of Penicillium expansum and Aspergillus niger mycelia originating from single spores was monitored macroscopically at isothermal conditions ranging from 0 to 30°C and 10 to 41.5°C, respectively. The radial growth curve for each mycelium was fitted to a linear model for the estimation of mycelium lag time. The results showed that the lag time varied significantly among single spores. The cumulative frequency distributions of the lag times were fitted to the modified Gompertz model and compared with the respective distributions for the germination time, which were obtained microscopically. The distributions of the measured mycelium lag time were found to be similar to the germination time distributions under the same conditions but shifted in time with the lag times showing a significant delay compared to germination times. A numerical comparison was also performed based on the distribution parameters λ(m) and λ(g), which indicate the time required from the spores to start the germination process and the completion of the lag phase, respectively. The relative differences %(λ(m)-λ(g))/λ(m) were not found to be significantly affected by temperatures tested with mean values of 72.5±5.1 and 60.7±2.1 for P. expansum for A. niger, respectively. In order to investigate the source of the above difference, a time-lapse microscopy method was developed providing videos with the behavior of single fungal spore from germination until mycelium formation. The distances of the apexes of the first germ tubes that emerged from the swollen spore were measured in each frame of the videos and these data were expressed as a function of time. The results showed that in the early hyphal development, the measured radii appear to increase exponentially, until a certain time, where growth becomes linear. The two phases of hyphal development can explain the difference between germination and lag time. Since the lag time is estimated from the extrapolation of the regression line of the linear part of the graph only, its value is significantly higher than the germination time, t(G). The relation of germination and lag time was further investigated by comparing their temperature dependence using the Cardinal Model with Inflection. The estimated values of the cardinal parameters (T(min), T(opt), and T(max)) for 1/λ(g) were found to be very close to the respective values for 1/λ(m), indicating similar temperature dependence between them. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand: a time series study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health. PMID:22613086

Extending the Distributed Lag Model framework to handle chemical mixtures.

PubMed

Bello, Ghalib A; Arora, Manish; Austin, Christine; Horton, Megan K; Wright, Robert O; Gennings, Chris

2017-07-01

Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) are used in environmental health studies to analyze the time-delayed effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest. Given the increasing need for analytical tools for evaluation of the effects of exposure to multi-pollutant mixtures, this study attempts to extend the classical DLM framework to accommodate and evaluate multiple longitudinally observed exposures. We introduce 2 techniques for quantifying the time-varying mixture effect of multiple exposures on an outcome of interest. Lagged WQS, the first technique, is based on Weighted Quantile Sum (WQS) regression, a penalized regression method that estimates mixture effects using a weighted index. We also introduce Tree-based DLMs, a nonparametric alternative for assessment of lagged mixture effects. This technique is based on the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, a nonparametric, tree-based estimation technique that has shown excellent performance in a wide variety of domains. In a simulation study, we tested the feasibility of these techniques and evaluated their performance in comparison to standard methodology. Both methods exhibited relatively robust performance, accurately capturing pre-defined non-linear functional relationships in different simulation settings. Further, we applied these techniques to data on perinatal exposure to environmental metal toxicants, with the goal of evaluating the effects of exposure on neurodevelopment. Our methods identified critical neurodevelopmental windows showing significant sensitivity to metal mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Michael J.; Sheridan, Scott C.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the relationship between all-cause mortality and extreme temperature events (ETEs) from 1975 to 2004. For 50 U.S. locations, these heat and cold events were defined based on location-specific thresholds of daily mean apparent temperature. Heat days were defined by a 3-day mean apparent temperature greater than the 95th percentile while extreme heat days were greater than the 97.5th percentile. Similarly, calculations for cold and extreme cold days relied upon the 5th and 2.5th percentiles. A distributed lag non-linear model assessed the relationship between mortality and ETEs for a cumulative 14-day period following exposure. Subsets for season and duration effect denote the differences between early- and late-season as well as short and long ETEs. While longer-lasting heat days resulted in elevated mortality, early season events also impacted mortality outcomes. Over the course of the summer season, heat-related risk decreased, though prolonged heat days still had a greater influence on mortality. Unlike heat, cold-related risk was greatest in more southerly locations. Risk was highest for early season cold events and decreased over the course of the winter season. Statistically, short episodes of cold showed the highest relative risk, suggesting unsettled weather conditions may have some relationship to cold-related mortality. For both heat and cold, results indicate higher risk to the more extreme thresholds. Risk values provide further insight into the role of adaptation, geographical variability, and acclimatization with respect to ETEs.

Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

2013-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global determinants of mortality in under 5s: 10 year worldwide longitudinal study.

PubMed

Hanf, Matthieu; Nacher, Mathieu; Guihenneuc, Chantal; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Chavance, Michel

2013-11-08

To assess at country level the association of mortality in under 5s with a large set of determinants. Longitudinal study. 193 United Nations member countries, 2000-09. Yearly data between 2000 and 2009 based on 12 world development indicators were used in a multivariable general additive mixed model allowing for non-linear relations and lag effects. National rate of deaths in under 5s per 1000 live births The model retained the variables: gross domestic product per capita; percentage of the population having access to improved water sources, having access to improved sanitation facilities, and living in urban areas; adolescent fertility rate; public health expenditure per capita; prevalence of HIV; perceived level of corruption and of violence; and mean number of years in school for women of reproductive age. Most of these variables exhibited non-linear behaviours and lag effects. By providing a unified framework for mortality in under 5s, encompassing both high and low income countries this study showed non-linear behaviours and lag effects of known or suspected determinants of mortality in this age group. Although some of the determinants presented a linear action on log mortality indicating that whatever the context, acting on them would be a pertinent strategy to effectively reduce mortality, others had a threshold based relation potentially mediated by lag effects. These findings could help designing efficient strategies to achieve maximum progress towards millennium development goal 4, which aims to reduce mortality in under 5s by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

Heatwaves differentially affect risk of Salmonella serotypes.

PubMed

Milazzo, Adriana; Giles, Lynne C; Zhang, Ying; Koehler, Ann P; Hiller, Janet E; Bi, Peng

2016-09-01

Given increasing frequency of heatwaves and growing public health concerns associated with foodborne disease, we examined the relationship between heatwaves and salmonellosis in Adelaide, Australia. Poisson regression analysis with Generalised Estimating Equations was used to estimate the effect of heatwaves and the impact of intensity, duration and timing on salmonellosis and specific serotypes notified from 1990 to 2012. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature during heatwaves on Salmonella cases. Salmonella typhimurium PT135 notifications were sensitive to the effects of heatwaves with a twofold (IRR 2.08, 95% CI 1.14-3.79) increase in cases relative to non-heatwave days. Heatwave intensity had a significant effect on daily counts of overall salmonellosis with a 34% increase in risk of infection (IRR 1.34, 95% CI 1.01-1.78) at >41 °C. The effects of temperature during heatwaves on Salmonella cases and serotypes were found at lags of up to 14 days. This study confirms heatwaves have a significant effect on Salmonella cases, and for the first time, identifies its impact on specific serotypes and phage types. These findings will contribute to the understanding of the impact of heatwaves on salmonellosis and provide insights that could mitigate their impact. Copyright © 2016 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Relationship between sulfur dioxide pollution and upper respiratory outpatients in Jiangbei, Ningbo].

PubMed

Wu, Yifeng; Zhao, Fengmin; Qian, Xujun; Xu, Guozhang; He, Tianfeng; Shen, Yueping; Cai, Yibiao

2015-07-01

To describe the daily average concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in Ningbo, and to analysis the health impacts it caused in upper respiratory disease. With outpatients log and air pollutants monitoring data matched in 2011-2013, the distributed lag non-linear models were used to analysis the relative risk of the number of upper respiratory patients associated with SO2, and also excessive risk, and the inferred number of patients due to SO2 pollution. The daily average concentration of SO2 didn't exceed the limit value of second class area. The coefficient of upper respiratory outpatient number and daily average concentration of SO2 matched was 0.44,with the excessive risk was 10% to 18%, the lag of most SO2 concentrations was 4 to 6 days. It could be estimated that about 30% of total upper respiratory outpatients were caused by SO2 pollution. Although the daily average concentration of SO2 didn't exceed the standard in 3 years, the health impacts still be caused with lag effect.

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Chen, Po-Jiang

2017-01-01

Background Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. Methodology/Principle findings Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. Conclusions/Significance Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks. PMID:28575035

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Chen, Po-Jiang

2017-01-01

Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks.

Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Ahlm, Clas; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-01-01

Malaria is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in malaria endemic countries. The malaria mosquito vectors depend on environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, for reproduction and survival. To investigate the potential for weather driven early warning systems to prevent disease occurrence, the disease relationship to weather conditions need to be carefully investigated. Where meteorological observations are scarce, satellite derived products provide new opportunities to study the disease patterns depending on remotely sensed variables. In this study, we explored the lagged association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI), day Land Surface Temperature (LST) and precipitation on malaria mortality in three areas in Western Kenya. The lagged effect of each environmental variable on weekly malaria mortality was modeled using a Distributed Lag Non Linear Modeling approach. For each variable we constructed a natural spline basis with 3 degrees of freedom for both the lag dimension and the variable. Lag periods up to 12 weeks were considered. The effect of day LST varied between the areas with longer lags. In all the three areas, malaria mortality was associated with precipitation. The risk increased with increasing weekly total precipitation above 20 mm and peaking at 80 mm. The NDVI threshold for increased mortality risk was between 0.3 and 0.4 at shorter lags. This study identified lag patterns and association of remote- sensing environmental factors and malaria mortality in three malaria endemic regions in Western Kenya. Our results show that rainfall has the most consistent predictive pattern to malaria transmission in the endemic study area. Results highlight a potential for development of locally based early warning forecasts that could potentially reduce the disease burden by enabling timely control actions.

Individual cell lag time distributions of Cronobacter (Enterobacter sakazakii) and impact of pooling samples on its detection in powdered infant formula.

PubMed

Miled, Rabeb Bennour; Guillier, Laurent; Neves, Sandra; Augustin, Jean-Christophe; Colin, Pierre; Besse, Nathalie Gnanou

2011-06-01

Cells of six strains of Cronobacter were subjected to dry stress and stored for 2.5 months at ambient temperature. The individual cell lag time distributions of recovered cells were characterized at 25 °C and 37 °C in non-selective broth. The individual cell lag times were deduced from the times taken by cultures from individual cells to reach an optical density threshold. In parallel, growth curves for each strain at high contamination levels were determined in the same growth conditions. In general, the extreme value type II distribution with a shape parameter fixed to 5 (EVIIb) was the most effective at describing the 12 observed distributions of individual cell lag times. Recently, a model for characterizing individual cell lag time distribution from population growth parameters was developed for other food-borne pathogenic bacteria such as Listeria monocytogenes. We confirmed this model's applicability to Cronobacter by comparing the mean and the standard deviation of individual cell lag times to populational lag times observed with high initial concentration experiments. We also validated the model in realistic conditions by studying growth in powdered infant formula decimally diluted in Buffered Peptone Water, which represents the first enrichment step of the standard detection method for Cronobacter. Individual lag times and the pooling of samples significantly affect detection performances. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of ambient temperature on diabetes mortality in China: A multi-city time series study.

PubMed

Yang, Jun; Yin, Peng; Zhou, Maigeng; Ou, Chun-Quan; Li, Mengmeng; Liu, Yunning; Gao, Jinghong; Chen, Bin; Liu, Jiangmei; Bai, Li; Liu, Qiyong

2016-02-01

Few multi-city studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of low and high temperatures on diabetes mortality worldwide. We aimed to examine effects of ambient temperatures on city-/gender-/age-/education-specific diabetes mortality in nine Chinese cities using a two-stage analysis. Distributed lag non-linear model was first applied to estimate the city-specific non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures on diabetes mortality. Pooled effects of temperatures on diabetes mortality were then obtained using meta-analysis, based on restricted maximum likelihood. We found that heat effects were generally acute and followed by a period of mortality displacement, while cold effects could last for over two weeks. The pooled relative risks of extreme high (99th percentile of temperature) and high temperature (90th percentile of temperature) were 1.29 (95%CI: 1.11-1.47) and 1.11 (1.03-1.19) over lag 0-21 days, compared with the 75th percentile of temperature. In contrast, the pooled relative risks over lag 0-21 days were 1.44 (1.25-1.66) for extreme low (1st percentile of temperature) and 1.20 (1.12-1.30) for low temperature (10th percentile of temperature), compared to 25th percentile of temperature. The estimate of heat effects was relatively higher among females than that among males, with opposite trend for cold effects, and the estimates of heat and cold effects were particularly higher among the elderly and those with low education, although the differences between these subgroups were not statistically significant (P>0.05). These findings have important public health implications for protecting diabetes patients from adverse ambient temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing weather effects on dengue disease in Malaysia.

PubMed

Cheong, Yoon Ling; Burkart, Katrin; Leitão, Pedro J; Lakes, Tobia

2013-11-26

The number of dengue cases has been increasing on a global level in recent years, and particularly so in Malaysia, yet little is known about the effects of weather for identifying the short-term risk of dengue for the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the weather effects on dengue disease accounting for non-linear temporal effects in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia, from 2008 to 2010. We selected the weather parameters with a Poisson generalized additive model, and then assessed the effects of minimum temperature, bi-weekly accumulated rainfall and wind speed on dengue cases using a distributed non-linear lag model while adjusting for trend, day-of-week and week of the year. We found that the relative risk of dengue cases is positively associated with increased minimum temperature at a cumulative percentage change of 11.92% (95% CI: 4.41-32.19), from 25.4 °C to 26.5 °C, with the highest effect delayed by 51 days. Increasing bi-weekly accumulated rainfall had a positively strong effect on dengue cases at a cumulative percentage change of 21.45% (95% CI: 8.96, 51.37), from 215 mm to 302 mm, with the highest effect delayed by 26-28 days. The wind speed is negatively associated with dengue cases. The estimated lagged effects can be adapted in the dengue early warning system to assist in vector control and prevention plan.

Malaria incidence trends and their association with climatic variables in rural Gwanda, Zimbabwe, 2005-2015.

PubMed

Gunda, Resign; Chimbari, Moses John; Shamu, Shepherd; Sartorius, Benn; Mukaratirwa, Samson

2017-09-30

Malaria is a public health problem in Zimbabwe. Although many studies have indicated that climate change may influence the distribution of malaria, there is paucity of information on its trends and association with climatic variables in Zimbabwe. To address this shortfall, the trends of malaria incidence and its interaction with climatic variables in rural Gwanda, Zimbabwe for the period January 2005 to April 2015 was assessed. Retrospective data analysis of reported cases of malaria in three selected Gwanda district rural wards (Buvuma, Ntalale and Selonga) was carried out. Data on malaria cases was collected from the district health information system and ward clinics while data on precipitation and temperature were obtained from the climate hazards group infrared precipitation with station data (CHIRPS) database and the moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite data, respectively. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNLM) were used to determine the temporal lagged association between monthly malaria incidence and monthly climatic variables. There were 246 confirmed malaria cases in the three wards with a mean incidence of 0.16/1000 population/month. The majority of malaria cases (95%) occurred in the > 5 years age category. The results showed no correlation between trends of clinical malaria (unconfirmed) and confirmed malaria cases in all the three study wards. There was a significant association between malaria incidence and the climatic variables in Buvuma and Selonga wards at specific lag periods. In Ntalale ward, only precipitation (1- and 3-month lag) and mean temperature (1- and 2-month lag) were significantly associated with incidence at specific lag periods (p < 0.05). DLNM results suggest a key risk period in current month, based on key climatic conditions in the 1-4 month period prior. As the period of high malaria risk is associated with precipitation and temperature at 1-4 month prior in a seasonal cycle, intensifying malaria control activities over this period will likely contribute to lowering the seasonal malaria incidence.

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984-2007.

PubMed

Vutcovici, Maria; Goldberg, Mark S; Valois, Marie-France

2014-07-01

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been studied extensively. Recent data suggest an independent role of diurnal temperature variations in increasing daily mortality. Elderly adults-a growing subgroup of the population in developed countries-may be more susceptible to the effects of temperature variations. The aim of this study was to determine whether variations in diurnal temperature were associated with daily non-accidental mortality among residents of Montreal, Québec, who were 65 years of age and over during the period between 1984 and 2007. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models constrained over a 30-day lag period, adjusted for temporal trends, mean daily temperature, and mean daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone to estimate changes in daily mortality with diurnal temperature. We found, over the 30 day lag period, a cumulative increase in daily mortality of 5.12% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02-10.49%] for a change from 5.9 °C to 11.1 °C (25th to 75th percentiles) in diurnal temperature, and a 11.27% (95%CI: 2.08-21.29%) increase in mortality associated with an increase of diurnal temperature from 11.1 to 17.5 °C (75th to 99th percentiles). The results were relatively robust to adjustment for daily mean temperature. We found that, in Montreal, diurnal variations in temperature are associated with a small increase in non-accidental mortality among the elderly population. More studies are needed in different geographical locations to confirm this effect.

Mutual information estimation for irregularly sampled time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, K.; Marwan, N.; Heitzig, J.; Kurths, J.

2012-04-01

For the automated, objective and joint analysis of time series, similarity measures are crucial. Used in the analysis of climate records, they allow for a complimentary, unbiased view onto sparse datasets. The irregular sampling of many of these time series, however, makes it necessary to either perform signal reconstruction (e.g. interpolation) or to develop and use adapted measures. Standard linear interpolation comes with an inevitable loss of information and bias effects. We have recently developed a Gaussian kernel-based correlation algorithm with which the interpolation error can be substantially lowered, but this would not work should the functional relationship in a bivariate setting be non-linear. We therefore propose an algorithm to estimate lagged auto and cross mutual information from irregularly sampled time series. We have extended the standard and adaptive binning histogram estimators and use Gaussian distributed weights in the estimation of the (joint) probabilities. To test our method we have simulated linear and nonlinear auto-regressive processes with Gamma-distributed inter-sampling intervals. We have then performed a sensitivity analysis for the estimation of actual coupling length, the lag of coupling and the decorrelation time in the synthetic time series and contrast our results to the performance of a signal reconstruction scheme. Finally we applied our estimator to speleothem records. We compare the estimated memory (or decorrelation time) to that from a least-squares estimator based on fitting an auto-regressive process of order 1. The calculated (cross) mutual information results are compared for the different estimators (standard or adaptive binning) and contrasted with results from signal reconstruction. We find that the kernel-based estimator has a significantly lower root mean square error and less systematic sampling bias than the interpolation-based method. It is possible that these encouraging results could be further improved by using non-histogram mutual information estimators, like k-Nearest Neighbor or Kernel-Density estimators, but for short (<1000 points) and irregularly sampled datasets the proposed algorithm is already a great improvement.

Exposure and health impact evaluation based on simultaneous measurement of indoor and ambient PM2.5 in Haidian, Beijing.

PubMed

Qi, Meng; Zhu, Xi; Du, Wei; Chen, Yilin; Chen, Yuanchen; Huang, Tianbo; Pan, Xuelian; Zhong, Qirui; Sun, Xu; Zeng, Eddy Y; Xing, Baoshan; Tao, Shu

2017-01-01

Because people spend most of their time indoors, the characterization of indoor air quality is important for exposure assessment. Unfortunately, indoor air data are scarce, leading to a major data gap in risk assessment. In this study, PM 2.5 concentrations in both indoor and outdoor air were simultaneously measured using on-line particulate counters in 13 households in Haidian, Beijing for both heating and non-heating seasons. A bimodal distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations suggests rapid transitions between polluted and non-polluted situations. The PM 2.5 concentrations in indoor and outdoor air varied synchronously, with the indoor variation lagging. The lag time in the heating season was longer than that in the non-heating season. The particle sizes in indoor air were smaller than those in ambient air in the heating season and vice versa in the non-heating season. PM 2.5 concentrations in indoor air were generally lower than those in ambient air except when ambient concentrations dropped sharply to very low levels or there were internal emissions from cooking or other activities. The effectiveness of an air cleaner to reduce indoor PM 2.5 concentrations was demonstrated. Non-linear regression models were developed to predict indoor air PM 2.5 concentrations based on ambient data with lag time incorporated. The models were applied to estimate the overall population exposure to PM 2.5 and the health consequences in Haidian. The health impacts would be significantly overestimated without the indoor exposure being taken into consideration, and this bias would increase as the ambient air quality improved in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mean air temperature as a risk factor for stroke mortality in São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikefuti, Priscilla V.; Barrozo, Ligia V.; Braga, Alfésio L. F.

2018-05-01

In Brazil, chronic diseases account for the largest percentage of all deaths among men and women. Among the cardiovascular diseases, stroke is the leading cause of death, accounting for 10% of all deaths. We evaluated associations between stroke and mean air temperature using recorded mortality data and meteorological station data from 2002 to 2011. A time series analysis was applied to 55,633 mortality cases. Ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes (IS and HS, respectively) were divided to test different impact on which subgroup. Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was used and adjusted for seasonality, pollutants, humidity, and days of the week. HS mortality was associated with low mean temperatures for men relative risk (RR) = 2.43 (95% CI, 1.12-5.28) and women RR = 1.39 (95% CI, 1.03-1.86). RR of IS mortality was not significant using a 21-day lag window. Analyzing the lag response separately, we observed that the effect of temperature is acute in stroke mortality (higher risk among lags 0-5). However, for IS, higher mean temperatures were significant for this subtype with more than 15-day lag. Our findings showed that mean air temperature is associated with stroke mortality in the city of São Paulo for men and women and IS and HS may have different triggers. Further studies are needed to evaluate physiologic differences between these two subtypes of stroke.

Impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a high plateau area in southwest China: A time series analysis.

PubMed

Ding, Zan; Guo, Pi; Xie, Fang; Chu, Huifang; Li, Kun; Pu, Jingbo; Pang, Shaojie; Dong, Hongli; Liu, Yahui; Pi, Fuhua; Zhang, Qingying

2015-09-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator that reflects weather stability and is associated with global climate change and urbanization. Previous studies have explored the effect of DTR on human health in coastal cities with small daily temperature variations, but we have little evidence for high plateau regions where large DTRs usually occur. Using daily mortality data (2007-2013), we conducted a time-series analysis to assess the effect of DTR on daily mortality in Yuxi, a high plateau city in southwest China. Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate DTR effects on daily mortality, controlling for daily mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, day of the week, and seasonal and long-term trends. The cumulative effects of DTR were J-shaped curves for non-accidental, cardiorespiratory and cardiovascular mortality, with a U-shaped curve for respiratory mortality. Risk assessments showed strong monotonic increases in mortality starting at a DTR of approximately 16 °C. The relative risk of non-accidental morality with extreme high DTR at lag 0 and 0-21 days was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.11) and 1.33 (0.94-1.89), respectively. The risk of mortality with extreme high DTR was greater for males and age <75 years than females and age ≥75 years. The effect of DTR on mortality was non-linear, with high DTR associated with increased mortality. A DTR of 16 °C may be a cut-off point for mortality prognosis and has implications for developing intervention strategies to address high DTR exposure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

2017-08-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

Transport and time lag of chlorofluorocarbon gases in the unsaturated zone, Rabis Creek, Denmark

USGS Publications Warehouse

Engesgaard, Peter; Højberg, Anker L.; Hinsby, Klaus; Jensen, Karsten H.; Laier, Troels; Larsen, Flemming; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Plummer, Niel

2004-01-01

Transport of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases through the unsaturated zone to the water table is affected by gas diffusion, air–water exchange (solubility), sorption to the soil matrix, advective–dispersive transport in the water phase, and, in some cases, anaerobic degradation. In deep unsaturated zones, this may lead to a time lag between entry of gases at the land surface and recharge to groundwater. Data from a Danish field site were used to investigate how time lag is affected by variations in water content and to explore the use of simple analytical solutions to calculate time lag. Numerical simulations demonstrate that either degradation or sorption of CFC-11 takes place, whereas CFC-12 and CFC-113 are nonreactive. Water flow did not appreciably affect transport. An analytical solution for the period with a linear increase in atmospheric CFC concentrations (approximately early 1970s to early 1990s) was used to calculate CFC profiles and time lags. We compared the analytical results with numerical simulations. The time lags in the 15-m-deep unsaturated zone increase from 4.2 to between 5.2 and 6.1 yr and from 3.4 to 3.9 yr for CFC-11 and CFC-12, respectively, when simulations change from use of an exponential to a linear increase in atmospheric concentrations. The CFC concentrations at the water table before the early 1990s can be estimated by displacing the atmospheric input function by these fixed time lags. A sensitivity study demonstrates conditions under which a time lag in the unsaturated zone becomes important. The most critical parameter is the tortuosity coefficient. The analytical approach is valid for the low range of tortuosity coefficients (τ = 0.1–0.4) and unsaturated zones greater than approximately 20 m in thickness. In these cases the CFC distribution may still be from either the exponential or linear phase. In other cases, the use of numerical models, as described in our work and elsewhere, is an option.

Projecting temperature-related years of life lost under different climate change scenarios in one temperate megacity, China.

PubMed

Li, Yixue; Li, Guoxing; Zeng, Qiang; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-02-01

Temperature has been associated with population health, but few studies have projected the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. To project future temperature-related disease burden in Tianjin, we selected years of life lost (YLL) as the dependent variable to explore YLL attributable to climate change. A generalized linear model (GLM) and distributed lag non-linear model were combined to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature on the YLL of non-accidental mortality. Then, we calculated the YLL changes attributable to future climate scenarios in 2055 and 2090. The relationships of daily mean temperature with the YLL of non-accident mortality were basically U-shaped. Both the daily mean temperature increase on high-temperature days and its drop on low-temperature days caused an increase of YLL and non-accidental deaths. The temperature-related YLL will worsen if future climate change exceeds 2 °C. In addition, the adverse effects of extreme temperature on YLL occurred more quickly than that of the overall temperature. The impact of low temperature was greater than that of high temperature. Men were vulnerable to high temperature compared with women. This analysis highlights that the government should formulate environmental policies to reach the Paris Agreement goal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Weather Effects on Dengue Disease in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Cheong, Yoon Ling; Burkart, Katrin; Leitão, Pedro J.; Lakes, Tobia

2013-01-01

The number of dengue cases has been increasing on a global level in recent years, and particularly so in Malaysia, yet little is known about the effects of weather for identifying the short-term risk of dengue for the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the weather effects on dengue disease accounting for non-linear temporal effects in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia, from 2008 to 2010. We selected the weather parameters with a Poisson generalized additive model, and then assessed the effects of minimum temperature, bi-weekly accumulated rainfall and wind speed on dengue cases using a distributed non-linear lag model while adjusting for trend, day-of-week and week of the year. We found that the relative risk of dengue cases is positively associated with increased minimum temperature at a cumulative percentage change of 11.92% (95% CI: 4.41–32.19), from 25.4 °C to 26.5 °C, with the highest effect delayed by 51 days. Increasing bi-weekly accumulated rainfall had a positively strong effect on dengue cases at a cumulative percentage change of 21.45% (95% CI: 8.96, 51.37), from 215 mm to 302 mm, with the highest effect delayed by 26–28 days. The wind speed is negatively associated with dengue cases. The estimated lagged effects can be adapted in the dengue early warning system to assist in vector control and prevention plan. PMID:24287855

Predicting the hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence using search engine query data and climate variables: an ecological study in Guangdong, China.

PubMed

Du, Zhicheng; Xu, Lin; Zhang, Wangjian; Zhang, Dingmei; Yu, Shicheng; Hao, Yuantao

2017-10-06

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on the enhanced surveillance system, we aimed to explore whether the addition of temperate and search engine query data improves the risk prediction of HFMD. Ecological study. Information on the confirmed cases of HFMD, climate parameters and search engine query logs was collected. A total of 1.36 million HFMD cases were identified from the surveillance system during 2011-2014. Analyses were conducted at aggregate level and no confidential information was involved. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with external variables (ARIMAX) was used to predict the HFMD incidence from 2011 to 2014, taking into account temperature and search engine query data (Baidu Index, BDI). Statistics of goodness-of-fit and precision of prediction were used to compare models (1) based on surveillance data only, and with the addition of (2) temperature, (3) BDI, and (4) both temperature and BDI. A high correlation between HFMD incidence and BDI ( r =0.794, p<0.001) or temperature ( r =0.657, p<0.001) was observed using both time series plot and correlation matrix. A linear effect of BDI (without lag) and non-linear effect of temperature (1 week lag) on HFMD incidence were found in a distributed lag non-linear model. Compared with the model based on surveillance data only, the ARIMAX model including BDI reached the best goodness-of-fit with an Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of -345.332, whereas the model including both BDI and temperature had the most accurate prediction in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 101.745%. An ARIMAX model incorporating search engine query data significantly improved the prediction of HFMD. Further studies are warranted to examine whether including search engine query data also improves the prediction of other infectious diseases in other settings. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Predicting the hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence using search engine query data and climate variables: an ecological study in Guangdong, China

PubMed Central

Du, Zhicheng; Xu, Lin; Zhang, Wangjian; Zhang, Dingmei; Yu, Shicheng; Hao, Yuantao

2017-01-01

Objectives Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on the enhanced surveillance system, we aimed to explore whether the addition of temperate and search engine query data improves the risk prediction of HFMD. Design Ecological study. Setting and participants Information on the confirmed cases of HFMD, climate parameters and search engine query logs was collected. A total of 1.36 million HFMD cases were identified from the surveillance system during 2011–2014. Analyses were conducted at aggregate level and no confidential information was involved. Outcome measures A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with external variables (ARIMAX) was used to predict the HFMD incidence from 2011 to 2014, taking into account temperature and search engine query data (Baidu Index, BDI). Statistics of goodness-of-fit and precision of prediction were used to compare models (1) based on surveillance data only, and with the addition of (2) temperature, (3) BDI, and (4) both temperature and BDI. Results A high correlation between HFMD incidence and BDI (r=0.794, p<0.001) or temperature (r=0.657, p<0.001) was observed using both time series plot and correlation matrix. A linear effect of BDI (without lag) and non-linear effect of temperature (1 week lag) on HFMD incidence were found in a distributed lag non-linear model. Compared with the model based on surveillance data only, the ARIMAX model including BDI reached the best goodness-of-fit with an Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of −345.332, whereas the model including both BDI and temperature had the most accurate prediction in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 101.745%. Conclusions An ARIMAX model incorporating search engine query data significantly improved the prediction of HFMD. Further studies are warranted to examine whether including search engine query data also improves the prediction of other infectious diseases in other settings. PMID:28988169

Haze is an important medium for the spread of rotavirus.

PubMed

Ye, Qing; Fu, Jun-Feng; Mao, Jian-Hua; Shen, Hong-Qiang; Chen, Xue-Jun; Shao, Wen-Xia; Shang, Shi-Qiang; Wu, Yi-Feng

2016-09-01

This study investigated whether the rotavirus infection rate in children is associated with temperature and air pollutants in Hangzhou, China. This study applied a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to assess the effects of daily meteorological data and air pollutants on the rotavirus positive rate among outpatient children. There was a negative correlation between temperature and the rotavirus infection rate. The impact of temperature on the detection rate of rotavirus presented an evident lag effect, the temperature change shows the greatest impact on the detection rate of rotavirus approximate at lag one day, and the maximum relative risk (RR) was approximately 1.3. In 2015, the maximum cumulative RR due to the cumulative effect caused by the temperature drop was 2.5. Particulate matter (PM) 2.5 and PM10 were the primary air pollutants in Hangzhou. The highest RR of rotavirus infection occurred at lag 1-1.5 days after the increase in the concentration of these pollutants, and the RR increased gradually with the increase in concentration. Based on the average concentrations of PM2.5 of 53.9 μg/m(3) and PM10 of 80.6 μg/m(3) in Hangzhou in 2015, the cumulative RR caused by the cumulative effect was 2.5 and 2.2, respectively. The current study suggests that temperature is an important factor impacting the rotavirus infection rate of children in Hangzhou. Air pollutants significantly increased the risk of rotavirus infection, and dosage, lag and cumulative effects were observed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of temperature variation between neighbouring days on daily hospital visits for childhood asthma: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Li, K; Ni, H; Yang, Z; Wang, Y; Ding, S; Wen, L; Yang, H; Cheng, J; Su, H

2016-07-01

To identify the relationship between temperature variation between neighbouring days (TVN) and hospital visits for childhood asthma in age- and sex-specific groups. An ecological design was used to explore the effect of TVN on hospital visits for childhood asthma. A Poisson generalised linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyse the association between TVN and hospital visits for childhood asthma. All hospital visits for childhood asthma from June 2010 to July 2013 were included (n = 17,022). Daily climate data were obtained from Hefei Meteorological Bureau. A significant correlation was found between TVN and hospital visits for childhood asthma in age- and sex-specific groups. For different gender groups, the effect of TVN on childhood asthma was the greatest at 3 and 5 days lag for males and females. For different age groups, the effect of TVN on childhood asthma was the greatest at 1 and 5 days lag for 0-4 years and 5-14 years children, respectively. A 1 °C increase in TVN was associated with a 4.2% (95% confidence interval 0.9-7.6%) increase in hospital visits for childhood asthma. TVN is associated with hospital visits for childhood asthma. Once the temperature change rapidly, guardians will be urged to pay more attention to their children's health, which may reduce the morbidity of childhood asthma. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature, hospital admissions and emergency room visits in Lhasa, Tibet: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Bai, Li; Cirendunzhu; Woodward, Alistair; Dawa; Zhaxisangmu; Chen, Bin; Liu, Qiyong

2014-08-15

Tibet of China, with an average altitude of over 4000 m, has experienced noticeable changes in its climate over the last 50 years. The association between temperature and morbidity (most commonly represented by hospital admissions) has been documented mainly in developed countries. Little is known about patterns in China; nor have the health effects of temperature variations been closely studied in highland areas, worldwide. We investigated the temperature-morbidity association in Lhasa, the capital city of Tibet, using sex- and age-specific hospitalizations, excluding those due to external causes. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on morbidity (including total emergency room visits, total and cause-specific hospital admissions, sex- and age-specific non-external admissions). High temperatures are associated with increases in morbidity, to a greater extent than low temperatures. Lag effects of high and low temperatures were cause-specific. The relative risks (RR) of high temperature for total emergency room visits and non-external hospitalizations were 1.162 (95% CI: 1.002-1.349) and 1.161 (95% CI: 1.007-1.339) respectively, for lag 0-14 days. The strongest cumulative effect of heat for lag 0-27 days was on admissions for infectious diseases (RR: 2.067, 95% CI: 1.026-4.027). Acute heat effects at lag 0 were related with increases of renal (RR: 1.478, 95% CI: 1.005-2.174) and respiratory diseases (RR: 1.119, 95% CI: 1.010-1.240), whereas immediate cold effects increased admission for digestive diseases (RR: 1.132, 95% CI: 1.002-1.282). Those ≥65 years of age and males were more vulnerable to high temperatures. We provide a first look at the temperature-morbidity relationship in Tibet. Exposure to both hot and cold temperatures resulted in increased admissions to hospital, but the immediate causes varied. We suggest that initiatives should be taken to reduce the adverse effects of temperature extremes in Tibet. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Impact of extreme high temperature on mortality and regional level definition of heat wave: a multi-city study in China.

PubMed

Gao, Jinghong; Sun, Yunzong; Liu, Qiyong; Zhou, Maigeng; Lu, Yaogui; Li, Liping

2015-02-01

Few multi-city studies have been conducted to explore the regional level definition of heat wave and examine the association between extreme high temperature and mortality in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the impact of extreme high temperature on mortality and to explore the local definition of heat wave in five Chinese cities. We first used a distributed lag non-linear model to characterize the effects of daily mean temperature on non-accidental mortality. We then employed a generalized additive model to explore the city-specific definition of heat wave. Finally, we performed a comparative analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of the definition. For each city, we found a positive non-linear association between extreme high temperature and mortality, with the highest effects appearing within 3 days of extreme heat event onset. Specifically, we defined individual heat waves of Beijing and Tianjin as being two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures exceeding 30.2 °C and 29.5 °C, respectively, and Nanjing, Shanghai and Changsha heat waves as ≥3 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures higher than 32.9 °C, 32.3 °C and 34.5 °C, respectively. Comparative analysis generally supported the definition. We found extreme high temperatures were associated with increased mortality, after a short lag period, when temperatures exceeded obvious threshold levels. The city-specific definition of heat wave developed in our study may provide guidance for the establishment and implementation of early heat-health response systems for local government to deal with the projected negative health outcomes due to heat waves. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Xuying; Li, Guoxing; Liu, Liqun; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan

2015-01-01

Objective: Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. Methods: We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007–2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. Results: For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0–27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0–14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34) to extremely low temperature. Conclusion: People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days. PMID:26703637

Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China.

PubMed

Wang, Xuying; Li, Guoxing; Liu, Liqun; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan

2015-12-21

Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007-2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0-27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0-14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34) to extremely low temperature. People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days.

The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non-Accidental Mortality in the United States, 1993-2005.

PubMed

Crooks, James Lewis; Cascio, Wayne E; Percy, Madelyn S; Reyes, Jeanette; Neas, Lucas M; Hilborn, Elizabeth D

2016-11-01

The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms, but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America. The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century. We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005. Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location, are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993-2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditional logistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-accidental). We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.4, 5.1; p = 0.023) over lags 0-5 compared with referent days. Significant associations with non-accidental mortality were estimated for California (lag 2 and 0-5 day) and Arizona (lag 3), for cardiovascular mortality in the United States (lag 2) and Arizona (lag 3), and for other non-accidental mortality in California (lags 1-3 and 0-5). Dust storms are associated with increases in lagged non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. Citation: Crooks JL, Cascio WE, Percy MS, Reyes J, Neas LM, Hilborn ED. 2016. The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993-2005. Environ Health Perspect 124:1735-1743; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP216.

Wavelet-based functional linear mixed models: an application to measurement error-corrected distributed lag models.

PubMed

Malloy, Elizabeth J; Morris, Jeffrey S; Adar, Sara D; Suh, Helen; Gold, Diane R; Coull, Brent A

2010-07-01

Frequently, exposure data are measured over time on a grid of discrete values that collectively define a functional observation. In many applications, researchers are interested in using these measurements as covariates to predict a scalar response in a regression setting, with interest focusing on the most biologically relevant time window of exposure. One example is in panel studies of the health effects of particulate matter (PM), where particle levels are measured over time. In such studies, there are many more values of the functional data than observations in the data set so that regularization of the corresponding functional regression coefficient is necessary for estimation. Additional issues in this setting are the possibility of exposure measurement error and the need to incorporate additional potential confounders, such as meteorological or co-pollutant measures, that themselves may have effects that vary over time. To accommodate all these features, we develop wavelet-based linear mixed distributed lag models that incorporate repeated measures of functional data as covariates into a linear mixed model. A Bayesian approach to model fitting uses wavelet shrinkage to regularize functional coefficients. We show that, as long as the exposure error induces fine-scale variability in the functional exposure profile and the distributed lag function representing the exposure effect varies smoothly in time, the model corrects for the exposure measurement error without further adjustment. Both these conditions are likely to hold in the environmental applications we consider. We examine properties of the method using simulations and apply the method to data from a study examining the association between PM, measured as hourly averages for 1-7 days, and markers of acute systemic inflammation. We use the method to fully control for the effects of confounding by other time-varying predictors, such as temperature and co-pollutants.

Association of cold temperature and mortality and effect modification in the subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, China.

PubMed

Ding, Zan; Li, Liujiu; Wei, Ruqin; Dong, Wenya; Guo, Pi; Yang, Shaoyi; Liu, Ju; Zhang, Qingying

2016-10-01

Consistent evidence has shown excess mortality associated with cold temperature, but some important details of the cold-mortality association (e.g. slope and threshold) have not been adequately investigated and few studies focused on the cold effect in high-altitude areas of developing countries. We attempted to quantify the cold effect on mortality, identify the details, and evaluate effect modification in the distinct subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, a high plateau region in southwest China. From daily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2014, we used a quasi-Poisson model combined with a "natural cubic spline-natural cubic spline" distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship and then a simpler "hockey-stick" model to investigate the cold effect and details. Cold temperature was associated with increased mortality, and the relative risk of cold effect (1st relative to 10th temperature percentile) on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality for lag 0-21 days was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.66), 1.61 (1.28-2.02), and 1.13 (0.78-1.64), respectively. A 1°C decrease below a cold threshold of 9.1°C (8th percentile) for lags 0-21 was associated with a 7.35% (3.75-11.09%) increase in non-accidental mortality. The cold-mortality association was not significantly affected by cause-specific mortality, gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, occupation, or previous history of hypertension. There is an adverse impact of cold on mortality in Yuxi, China, and a temperature of 9.1°C is an important cut-off for cold-related mortality for residents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-linear effects of mean temperature and relative humidity on dengue incidence in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaocheng; Lang, Lingling; Ma, Wenjun; Song, Tie; Kang, Min; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Lu, Liang; Lin, Hualiang; Ling, Li

2018-07-01

Dengue fever is an important infectious disease in Guangzhou, China; previous studies on the effects of weather factors on the incidence of dengue fever did not consider the linearity of the associations. This study evaluated the effects of daily mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on the incidence of dengue fever. A generalized additive model with splines smoothing function was performed to examine the effects of daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall on incidence of dengue fever during 2006-2014. Our analysis detected a non-linear effect of mean, minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidity on dengue fever with the thresholds at 28°C, 23°C and 32°C for daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, 76% for relative humidity, respectively. Below the thresholds, there was a significant positive effect, the excess risk in dengue fever for each 1°C in the mean temperature at lag7-14days was 10.21%, (95% CI: 6.62% to 13.92%), 7.10% (95% CI: 4.99%, 9.26%) for 1°C increase in daily minimum temperature in lag 11days, and 2.27% (95% CI: 0.84%, 3.72%) for 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in lag 10days; and each 1% increase in relative humidity of lag7-14days was associated with 1.95% (95% CI: 1.21% to 2.69%) in risk of dengue fever. Future prevention and control measures and epidemiology studies on dengue fever should consider these weather factors based on their exposure-response relationship. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A way around the Nyquist lag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penland, C.

2017-12-01

One way to test for the linearity of a multivariate system is to perform Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) to a multivariate time series. LIM yields an estimated operator by combining a lagged covariance matrix with the contemporaneous covariance matrix. If the underlying dynamics is linear, the resulting dynamical description should not depend on the particular lag at which the lagged covariance matrix is estimated. This test is known as the "tau test." The tau test will be severely compromised if the lag at which the analysis is performed is approximately half the period of an internal oscillation frequency. In this case, the tau test will fail even though the dynamics are actually linear. Thus, until now, the tau test has only been possible for lags smaller than this "Nyquist lag." In this poster, we investigate the use of Hilbert transforms as a way to avoid the problems associated with Nyquist lags. By augmenting the data with dimensions orthogonal to those spanning the original system, information that would be inaccessible to LIM in its original form may be sampled.

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality: epidemiological evidence from China.

PubMed

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Zhang, Yanshen; Armstrong, Ben; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Tong, Shilu; Pan, Xiaochuan

2013-02-01

To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004-2008. The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate-IHD mortality relationships.

Environmental Influences on Daily Emergency Admissions in Sickle-Cell Disease Patients

PubMed Central

Mekontso Dessap, Armand; Contou, Damien; Dandine-Roulland, Claire; Hemery, François; Habibi, Anoosha; Charles-Nelson, Anaïs; Galacteros, Frederic; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Maitre, Bernard; Katsahian, Sandrine

2014-01-01

Abstract Previous reports have suggested a role for weather conditions and air pollution on the variability of sickle cell disease (SCD) severity, but large-scale comprehensive epidemiological studies are lacking. In order to evaluate the influence of air pollution and climatic factors on emergency hospital admissions (EHA) in SCD patients, we conducted an 8-year observational retrospective study in 22 French university hospitals in Paris conurbation, using distributed lag non-linear models, a methodology able to flexibly describe simultaneously non-linear and delayed associations, with a multivariable approach. During the 2922 days of the study, there were 17,710 EHA, with a mean daily number of 6.1 ± 2.8. Most environmental factors were significantly correlated to each other. The risk of EHA was significantly associated with higher values of nitrogen dioxide, atmospheric particulate matters, and daily mean wind speed; and with lower values of carbon monoxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, daily temperature (minimal, maximal, mean, and range), day-to-day mean temperature change, daily bright sunshine, and occurrence of storm. There was a lag effect for 12 of 15 environmental factors influencing hospitalization rate. Multivariate analysis identified carbon monoxide, day-to-day temperature change, and mean wind speed, along with calendar factors (weekend, summer season, and year) as independent factors associated with EHA. In conclusion, most weather conditions and air pollutants assessed were correlated to each other and influenced the rate of EHA in SCD patients. In multivariate analysis, lower carbon monoxide concentrations, day-to-day mean temperature drop and higher wind speed were associated with increased risk of EHA. PMID:25546672

Environmental influences on daily emergency admissions in sickle-cell disease patients.

PubMed

Mekontso Dessap, Armand; Contou, Damien; Dandine-Roulland, Claire; Hemery, François; Habibi, Anoosha; Charles-Nelson, Anaïs; Galacteros, Frederic; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Maitre, Bernard; Katsahian, Sandrine

2014-12-01

Previous reports have suggested a role for weather conditions and air pollution on the variability of sickle cell disease (SCD) severity, but large-scale comprehensive epidemiological studies are lacking. In order to evaluate the influence of air pollution and climatic factors on emergency hospital admissions (EHA) in SCD patients, we conducted an 8-year observational retrospective study in 22 French university hospitals in Paris conurbation, using distributed lag non-linear models, a methodology able to flexibly describe simultaneously non-linear and delayed associations, with a multivariable approach. During the 2922 days of the study, there were 17,710 EHA, with a mean daily number of 6.1 ± 2.8. Most environmental factors were significantly correlated to each other. The risk of EHA was significantly associated with higher values of nitrogen dioxide, atmospheric particulate matters, and daily mean wind speed; and with lower values of carbon monoxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, daily temperature (minimal, maximal, mean, and range), day-to-day mean temperature change, daily bright sunshine, and occurrence of storm. There was a lag effect for 12 of 15 environmental factors influencing hospitalization rate. Multivariate analysis identified carbon monoxide, day-to-day temperature change, and mean wind speed, along with calendar factors (weekend, summer season, and year) as independent factors associated with EHA. In conclusion, most weather conditions and air pollutants assessed were correlated to each other and influenced the rate of EHA in SCD patients. In multivariate analysis, lower carbon monoxide concentrations, day-to-day mean temperature drop and higher wind speed were associated with increased risk of EHA.

The effects of hot nights on mortality in Barcelona, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royé, D.

2017-12-01

Heat-related effects on mortality have been widely analyzed using maximum and minimum temperatures as exposure variables. Nevertheless, the main focus is usually on the former with the minimum temperature being limited in use as far as human health effects are concerned. Therefore, new thermal indices were used in this research to describe the duration of night hours with air temperatures higher than the 95% percentile of the minimum temperature (hot night hours) and intensity as the summation of these air temperatures in degrees (hot night degrees). An exposure-response relationship between mortality due to natural, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes and summer night temperatures was assessed using data from the Barcelona region between 2003 and 2013. The non-linear relationship between the exposure and response variables was modeled using a distributed lag non-linear model. The estimated associations for both exposure variables and mortality shows a relationship with high and medium values that persist significantly up to a lag of 1-2 days. In mortality due to natural causes, an increase of 1.1% per 10% (CI95% 0.6-1.5) for hot night hours and 5.8% per each 10° (CI95% 3.5-8.2%) for hot night degrees is observed. The effects of hot night hours reach their maximum with 100% and lead to an increase by 9.2% (CI95% 5.3-13.1%). The hourly description of night heat effects reduced to a single indicator in duration and intensity is a new approach and shows a different perspective and significant heat-related effects on human health.

Spatial and temporal variation in the association between temperature and salmonellosis in NZ.

PubMed

Lal, Aparna; Hales, Simon; Kirk, Martyn; Baker, Michael G; French, Nigel P

2016-04-01

Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify high-risk periods and provide understanding of the determinants of longer-term trends. We provide a detailed examination of the non-linear and delayed association between temperature and salmonellosis in three New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch). Salmonella notifications were geocoded to the city of residence for the reported case. City-specific associations between weekly maximum temperature and the onset date for reported salmonella infections (1997-2007) were modelled using non-linear distributed lag models, while controlling for season and long-term trends. Relatively high temperatures were positively associated with infection risk in Auckland (n=3,073) and Christchurch (n=880), although the former showed evidence of a more immediate relationship with exposure to high temperatures. There was no significant association between temperature and salmonellosis risk in Wellington. Projected increases in temperature with climate change may have localised health impacts, suggesting that preventative measures will need to be region-specific. This evidence contributes to the increasing concern over the public health impacts of climate change. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Associations between maternal weekly air pollutant exposures and low birth weight: a distributed lag non-linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Han; Jiang, Baofa; Zhu, Ping; Geng, Xingyi; Liu, Zhong; Cui, Liangliang; Yang, Liping

2018-02-01

When discussing the association between birth weight and air pollution, previous studies mainly focus on the maternal trimester-specific exposures during pregnancy, whereas the possible associations between birth weight and weekly-specific exposures have been largely neglected. We conducted a nested 1:4 matched case-control study in Jinan, China to examine the weekly-specific associations during pregnancy between maternal fine particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm, PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) exposure and birth weight, which is under a representative scenario of very high pollution levels. Ambient air monitoring data from thirteen monitoring stations and daily mean temperature data for Jinan during 2013-2016 were continuously collected. Birth data were obtained from the largest maternity and child care hospital of this city during 2014-2016. Individual exposures to PM2.5, NO2, and SO2 during pregnancy were estimated using an inverse distance weighting method. Birth weight for gender-, gestational age-, and parity-specific standard score (BWGAP z-score) was calculated as the outcome of interest. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were applied to estimate weekly-specific relationship between maternal air pollutant exposures and birth weight. For an increase of per inter-quartile range in maternal PM2.5 exposure concentration during pregnancy, the BWGAP z-score decreased significantly during the 27th-33th gestational weeks with the strongest association in the 30th gestational weeks (standard deviation units decrease in BWGAP z-score: -0.049, 95% CI: -0.080 -0.017, in three-pollutant model). No significant association between maternal weekly NO2 or SO2 BWGAP z-score was observed. In conclusion, this study provides evidence that maternal PM2.5 exposure during the 27th-33th gestational weeks may reduce the birth weight in the context of very high pollution level of PM2.5.

Multi-time-scale X-ray reverberation mapping of accreting black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastroserio, Guglielmo; Ingram, Adam; van der Klis, Michiel

2018-04-01

Accreting black holes show characteristic reflection features in their X-ray spectrum, including an iron Kα line, resulting from hard X-ray continuum photons illuminating the accretion disc. The reverberation lag resulting from the path-length difference between direct and reflected emission provides a powerful tool to probe the innermost regions around both stellar-mass and supermassive black holes. Here, we present for the first time a reverberation mapping formalism that enables modelling of energy-dependent time lags and variability amplitude for a wide range of variability time-scales, taking the complete information of the cross-spectrum into account. We use a pivoting power-law model to account for the spectral variability of the continuum that dominates over the reverberation lags for longer time-scale variability. We use an analytic approximation to self-consistently account for the non-linear effects caused by this continuum spectral variability, which have been ignored by all previous reverberation studies. We find that ignoring these non-linear effects can bias measurements of the reverberation lags, particularly at low frequencies. Since our model is analytic, we are able to fit simultaneously for a wide range of Fourier frequencies without prohibitive computational expense. We also introduce a formalism of fitting to real and imaginary parts of our cross-spectrum statistic, which naturally avoids some mistakes/inaccuracies previously common in the literature. We perform proof-of-principle fits to Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer data of Cygnus X-1.

Impact of temperature variation between adjacent days on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease during April and July in urban and rural Hefei, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jian; Zhu, Rui; Xu, Zhiwei; Wu, Jinju; Wang, Xu; Li, Kesheng; Wen, Liying; Yang, Huihui; Su, Hong

2016-06-01

Previous studies have found that both high temperature and low temperature increase the risk of childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). However, little is known about whether temperature variation between neighboring days has any effects on childhood HFMD. A Poisson generalized linear regression model, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model, was applied to examine the relationship between temperature change and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012. Temperature change was defined as the difference of current day's mean temperature and previous day's mean temperature. Late spring and early summer (April-July) were chosen as the main study period due to it having the highest childhood HFMD incidence. There was a statistical association between temperature change between neighboring days and childhood HFMD. The effects of temperature change on childhood HFMD increased below a temperature change of 0 °C (temperature drop). The temperature change has the greatest adverse effect on childhood HFMD at 7 days lag, with 4 % (95 % confidence interval 2-7 %) increase per 3 °C drop of temperature. Male children and urban children appeared to be more vulnerable to the effects of temperature change. Temperature change between adjacent days might be an alternative temperature indictor for exploring the temperature-HFMD relationship.

Impact of temperature variation between adjacent days on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease during April and July in urban and rural Hefei, China.

PubMed

Cheng, Jian; Zhu, Rui; Xu, Zhiwei; Wu, Jinju; Wang, Xu; Li, Kesheng; Wen, Liying; Yang, Huihui; Su, Hong

2016-06-01

Previous studies have found that both high temperature and low temperature increase the risk of childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). However, little is known about whether temperature variation between neighboring days has any effects on childhood HFMD. A Poisson generalized linear regression model, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model, was applied to examine the relationship between temperature change and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012. Temperature change was defined as the difference of current day's mean temperature and previous day's mean temperature. Late spring and early summer (April-July) were chosen as the main study period due to it having the highest childhood HFMD incidence. There was a statistical association between temperature change between neighboring days and childhood HFMD. The effects of temperature change on childhood HFMD increased below a temperature change of 0 °C (temperature drop). The temperature change has the greatest adverse effect on childhood HFMD at 7 days lag, with 4 % (95 % confidence interval 2-7 %) increase per 3 °C drop of temperature. Male children and urban children appeared to be more vulnerable to the effects of temperature change. Temperature change between adjacent days might be an alternative temperature indictor for exploring the temperature-HFMD relationship.

The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non-Accidental Mortality in the United States, 1993–2005

PubMed Central

Crooks, James Lewis; Cascio, Wayne E.; Percy, Madelyn S.; Reyes, Jeanette; Neas, Lucas M.; Hilborn, Elizabeth D.

2016-01-01

Background: The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms, but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America. The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century. Objectives: We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005. Methods: Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location, are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993–2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditional logistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-accidental). Results: We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.4, 5.1; p = 0.023) over lags 0–5 compared with referent days. Significant associations with non-accidental mortality were estimated for California (lag 2 and 0–5 day) and Arizona (lag 3), for cardiovascular mortality in the United States (lag 2) and Arizona (lag 3), and for other non-accidental mortality in California (lags 1–3 and 0–5). Conclusions: Dust storms are associated with increases in lagged non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. Citation: Crooks JL, Cascio WE, Percy MS, Reyes J, Neas LM, Hilborn ED. 2016. The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993–2005. Environ Health Perspect 124:1735–1743; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP216 PMID:27128449

Short-term effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease among children in Shenzhen, China: Non-linearity, threshold and interaction.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhen; Xie, Xu; Chen, Xiliang; Li, Yuan; Lu, Yan; Mei, Shujiang; Liao, Yuxue; Lin, Hualiang

2016-01-01

Various meteorological factors have been associated with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children; however, fewer studies have examined the non-linearity and interaction among the meteorological factors. A generalized additive model with a log link allowing Poisson auto-regression and over-dispersion was applied to investigate the short-term effects daily meteorological factors on children HFMD with adjustment of potential confounding factors. We found positive effects of mean temperature and wind speed, the excess relative risk (ERR) was 2.75% (95% CI: 1.98%, 3.53%) for one degree increase in daily mean temperature on lag day 6, and 3.93% (95% CI: 2.16% to 5.73%) for 1m/s increase in wind speed on lag day 3. We found a non-linear effect of relative humidity with thresholds with the low threshold at 45% and high threshold at 85%, within which there was positive effect, the ERR was 1.06% (95% CI: 0.85% to 1.27%) for 1 percent increase in relative humidity on lag day 5. No significant effect was observed for rainfall and sunshine duration. For the interactive effects, we found a weak additive interaction between mean temperature and relative humidity, and slightly antagonistic interaction between mean temperature and wind speed, and between relative humidity and wind speed in the additive models, but the interactions were not statistically significant. This study suggests that mean temperature, relative humidity and wind speed might be risk factors of children HFMD in Shenzhen, and the interaction analysis indicates that these meteorological factors might have played their roles individually. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adding In-Plane Flexibility to the Equations of Motion of a Single Rotor Helicopter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtiss, H. C., Jr.

2000-01-01

This report describes a way to add the effects of main rotor blade flexibility in the in- plane or lead-lag direction to a large set of non-linear equations of motion for a single rotor helicopter with rigid blades(l). Differences between the frequency of the regressing lag mode predicted by the equations of (1) and that measured in flight (2) for a UH-60 helicopter indicate that some element is missing from the analytical model of (1) which assumes rigid blades. A previous study (3) noted a similar discrepancy for the CH-53 helicopter. Using a relatively simple analytical model in (3), compared to (1), it was shown that a mechanical lag damper increases significantly the coupling between the rigid lag mode and the first flexible mode. This increased coupling due to a powerful lag damper produces an increase in the lowest lag frequency when viewed in a frame rotating with the blade. Flight test measurements normally indicate the frequency of this mode in a non-rotating or fixed frame. This report presents the additions necessary to the full equations of motion, to include main rotor blade lag flexibility. Since these additions are made to a very complex nonlinear dynamic model, in order to provide physical insight, a discussion of the results obtained from a simplified set of equations of motion is included. The reduced model illustrates the physics involved in the coupling and should indicate trends in the full model.

Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

PubMed

Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür Ömer

2018-01-01

The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO 2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO 2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO 2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

Bayesian dynamical systems modelling in the social sciences.

PubMed

Ranganathan, Shyam; Spaiser, Viktoria; Mann, Richard P; Sumpter, David J T

2014-01-01

Data arising from social systems is often highly complex, involving non-linear relationships between the macro-level variables that characterize these systems. We present a method for analyzing this type of longitudinal or panel data using differential equations. We identify the best non-linear functions that capture interactions between variables, employing Bayes factor to decide how many interaction terms should be included in the model. This method punishes overly complicated models and identifies models with the most explanatory power. We illustrate our approach on the classic example of relating democracy and economic growth, identifying non-linear relationships between these two variables. We show how multiple variables and variable lags can be accounted for and provide a toolbox in R to implement our approach.

Information-theoretic approach to lead-lag effect on financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedor, Paweł

2014-08-01

Recently the interest of researchers has shifted from the analysis of synchronous relationships of financial instruments to the analysis of more meaningful asynchronous relationships. Both types of analysis are concentrated mostly on Pearson's correlation coefficient and consequently intraday lead-lag relationships (where one of the variables in a pair is time-lagged) are also associated with them. Under the Efficient-Market Hypothesis such relationships are not possible as all information is embedded in the prices, but in real markets we find such dependencies. In this paper we analyse lead-lag relationships of financial instruments and extend known methodology by using mutual information instead of Pearson's correlation coefficient. Mutual information is not only a more general measure, sensitive to non-linear dependencies, but also can lead to a simpler procedure of statistical validation of links between financial instruments. We analyse lagged relationships using New York Stock Exchange 100 data not only on an intraday level, but also for daily stock returns, which have usually been ignored.

Temporal and micro-spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of Anopheles vectors of malaria along the Kenyan coast

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The distribution of anopheline mosquitoes is determined by temporally dynamic environmental and human-associated variables, operating over a range of spatial scales. Macro-spatial short-term trends are driven predominantly by prior (lagged) seasonal changes in climate, which regulate the abundance of suitable aquatic larval habitats. Micro-spatial distribution is determined by the location of these habitats, proximity and abundance of available human bloodmeals and prevailing micro-climatic conditions. The challenge of analysing—in a single coherent statistical framework—the lagged and distributed effect of seasonal climate changes simultaneously with the effects of an underlying hierarchy of spatial factors has hitherto not been addressed. Methods Data on Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and A. funestus collected from households in Kilifi district, Kenya, were analysed using polynomial distributed lag generalized linear mixed models (PDL GLMMs). Results Anopheline density was positively and significantly associated with amount of rainfall between 4 to 47 days, negatively and significantly associated with maximum daily temperature between 5 and 35 days, and positively and significantly associated with maximum daily temperature between 29 and 48 days in the past (depending on Anopheles species). Multiple-occupancy households harboured greater mosquito numbers than single-occupancy households. A significant degree of mosquito clustering within households was identified. Conclusions The PDL GLMMs developed here represent a generalizable framework for analysing hierarchically-structured data in combination with explanatory variables which elicit lagged effects. The framework is a valuable tool for facilitating detailed understanding of determinants of the spatio-temporal distribution of Anopheles. Such understanding facilitates delivery of targeted, cost-effective and, in certain circumstances, preventative antivectorial interventions against malaria. PMID:24330615

Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

2016-05-01

A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future studies.

Health impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical China: the climate and health impact national assessment study (CHINAs)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many studies have investigated heat wave related mortality, but less attention has been given to the health effects of cold spells in the context of global warming. The 2008 cold spell in China provided a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical regions, spatial heterogeneity of the effects, stratification effect and added effects caused by sustained cold days. Methods Thirty-six study communities were selected from 15 provinces in subtropical China. Daily mortality and meteorological data were collected for each community from 2006 to 2010. A distributed lag linear non-linear model (DLNM) with a lag structure of up to 27 days was used to analyze the association between the 2008 cold spell and mortality. Multivariate meta-analyses were used to combine the cold effects across each community. Results The 2008 cold spell increased mortality by 43.8% (95% CI: 34.8% ~ 53.4%) compared to non-cold spell days with the highest effects in southern and central China. The effects were more pronounced for respiratory mortality (RESP) than for cardiovascular (CVD) or cerebrovascular mortality (CBD), for females more than for males, and for the elderly aged ≥75 years old more than for younger people. Overall, 148,279 excess deaths were attributable to the 2008 cold spell. The cold effect was mainly from extreme low temperatures rather than sustained cold days during this 2008 cold spell. Conclusions The 2008 cold spell increased mortality in subtropical China, which was mainly attributable to the low temperature rather than the sustained duration of the cold spell. The cold effects were spatially heterogeneous and modified by individual-specific characteristics such as gender and age. PMID:25060645

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions.

PubMed

Islam, Muhammad Saiful; Chaussalet, Thierry J; Koizumi, Naoru

2017-02-01

Identification of 'cut-points' or thresholds of climate factors would play a crucial role in alerting risks of climate change and providing guidance to policymakers. This study investigated a 'Climate Threshold' for emergency hospital admissions of chronic lower respiratory diseases by using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We analysed a unique longitudinal dataset (10 years, 2000-2009) on emergency hospital admissions, climate, and pollution factors for the Greater London. Our study extends existing work on this topic by considering non-linearity, lag effects between climate factors and disease exposure within the DLNM model considering B-spline as smoothing technique. The final model also considered natural cubic splines of time since exposure and 'day of the week' as confounding factors. The results of DLNM indicated a significant improvement in model fitting compared to a typical GLM model. The final model identified the thresholds of several climate factors including: high temperature (≥27°C), low relative humidity (≤ 40%), high Pm10 level (≥70-µg/m 3 ), low wind speed (≤ 2 knots) and high rainfall (≥30mm). Beyond the threshold values, a significantly higher number of emergency admissions due to lower respiratory problems would be expected within the following 2-3 days after the climate shift in the Greater London. The approach will be useful to initiate 'region and disease specific' climate mitigation plans. It will help identify spatial hot spots and the most sensitive areas and population due to climate change, and will eventually lead towards a diversified health warning system tailored to specific climate zones and populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling the association of dengue fever cases with temperature and relative humidity in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia-A generalised linear model with break-point analysis.

PubMed

Alkhaldy, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to examine the role of environmental factors in the temporal distribution of dengue fever in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The relationship between dengue fever cases and climatic factors such as relative humidity and temperature was investigated during 2006-2009 to determine whether there is any relationship between dengue fever cases and climatic parameters in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. A generalised linear model (GLM) with a break-point was used to determine how different levels of temperature and relative humidity affected the distribution of the number of cases of dengue fever. Break-point analysis was performed to modelled the effect before and after a break-point (change point) in the explanatory parameters under various scenarios. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and cross validation (CV) were used to assess the performance of the models. The results showed that maximum temperature and mean relative humidity are most probably the better predictors of the number of dengue fever cases in Jeddah. In this study three scenarios were modelled: no time lag, 1-week lag and 2-weeks lag. Among these scenarios, the 1-week lag model using mean relative humidity as an explanatory variable showed better performance. This study showed a clear relationship between the meteorological variables and the number of dengue fever cases in Jeddah. The results also demonstrated that meteorological variables can be successfully used to estimate the number of dengue fever cases for a given period of time. Break-point analysis provides further insight into the association between meteorological parameters and dengue fever cases by dividing the meteorological parameters into certain break-points. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the effect of water activity and storage temperature on single spore lag times of three moulds isolated from spoiled bakery products.

PubMed

Dagnas, Stéphane; Gougouli, Maria; Onno, Bernard; Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos P; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2017-01-02

The inhibitory effect of water activity (a w ) and storage temperature on single spore lag times of Aspergillus niger, Eurotium repens (Aspergillus pseudoglaucus) and Penicillium corylophilum strains isolated from spoiled bakery products, was quantified. A full factorial design was set up for each strain. Data were collected at levels of a w varying from 0.80 to 0.98 and temperature from 15 to 35°C. Experiments were performed on malt agar, at pH5.5. When growth was observed, ca 20 individual growth kinetics per condition were recorded up to 35days. Radius of the colony vs time was then fitted with the Buchanan primary model. For each experimental condition, a lag time variability was observed, it was characterized by its mean, standard deviation (sd) and 5 th percentile, after a Normal distribution fit. As the environmental conditions became stressful (e.g. storage temperature and a w lower), mean and sd of single spore lag time distribution increased, indicating longer lag times and higher variability. The relationship between mean and sd followed a monotonous but not linear pattern, identical whatever the species. Next, secondary models were deployed to estimate the cardinal values (minimal, optimal and maximal temperatures, minimal water activity where no growth is observed anymore) for the three species. That enabled to confirm the observation made based on raw data analysis: concerning the temperature effect, A. niger behaviour was significantly different from E. repens and P. corylophilum: T opt of 37.4°C (standard deviation 1.4°C) instead of 27.1°C (1.4°C) and 25.2°C (1.2°C), respectively. Concerning the a w effect, from the three mould species, E. repens was the species able to grow at the lowest a w (aw min estimated to 0.74 (0.02)). Finally, results obtained with single spores were compared to findings from a previous study carried out at the population level (Dagnas et al., 2014). For short lag times (≤5days), there was no difference between lag time of the population (ca 2000 spores inoculated in one spot) and mean (nor 5 th percentile) of single spore lag time distribution. In contrast, when lag time was longer, i.e. under more stressful conditions, there was a discrepancy between individual and population lag times (population lag times shorter than 5 th percentiles of single spore lag time distribution), confirming a stochastic process. Finally, the temperature cardinal values estimated with single spores were found to be similar to those obtained at the population level, whatever the species. All these findings will be used to describe better mould spore lag time variability and then to predict more accurately bakery product shelf-life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jun; Ou, Chun-Quan; Guo, Yuming; Li, Li; Guo, Cui; Chen, Ping-Yan; Lin, Hua-Liang; Liu, Qi-Yong

2015-08-01

Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25th to 1st percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75th to 99th percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

Impact of temperature variability on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in Huainan, China.

PubMed

Xu, J; Zhao, D; Su, H; Xie, M; Cheng, J; Wang, X; Li, K; Yang, H; Wen, L; Wang, B

2016-05-01

The short-term temperature variation has been shown to be significantly associated with human health. However, little is known about whether temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) have any effect on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). This study aims to explore whether temperature variability has any effect on childhood HFMD. Ecological study. The association between meteorological variables and HFMD cases in Huainan, China, from January 1st 2012 to December 31st 2014 was analysed using Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) after controlling for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature and relative humidity. An adverse effect of TCN on childhood HFMD was observed, and the impact of TCN was the greatest at five days lag, with a 10% (95% CI: 4%-15%) increase of daily number of HFMD cases per 3 °C (10th percentile) decrease of TCN. Male children, children aged 0-5 years, scattered children and children in high-risk areas appeared to be more vulnerable to the TCN effect than others. However, there was no significant association between DTR and childhood HFMD. Our findings indicate that TCN drops may increase the incidence of childhood HFMD in Huainan, highlighting the importance of protecting children from forthcoming TCN drops, particularly for those who are male, young, scattered and from high-risk areas. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new paradigm for Aedes spp. surveillance using gravid ovipositing sticky trap and NS1 antigen test kit.

PubMed

Lau, Sai Ming; Chua, Tock H; Sulaiman, Wan-Yussof; Joanne, Sylvia; Lim, Yvonne Ai-Lian; Sekaran, Shamala Devi; Chinna, Karuthan; Venugopalan, Balan; Vythilingam, Indra

2017-03-21

Dengue remains a serious public health problem in Southeast Asia and has increased 37-fold in Malaysia compared to decades ago. New strategies are urgently needed for early detection and control of dengue epidemics. We conducted a two year study in a high human density dengue-endemic urban area in Selangor, where Gravid Ovipositing Sticky (GOS) traps were set up to capture adult Aedes spp. mosquitoes. All Aedes mosquitoes were tested using the NS1 dengue antigen test kit. All dengue cases from the study site notified to the State Health Department were recorded. Weekly microclimatic temperature, relative humidity (RH) and rainfall were monitored. Aedes aegypti was the predominant mosquito (95.6%) caught in GOS traps and 23% (43/187 pools of 5 mosquitoes each) were found to be positive for dengue using the NS1 antigen kit. Confirmed cases of dengue were observed with a lag of one week after positive Ae. aegypti were detected. Aedes aegypti density as analysed by distributed lag non-linear models, will increase lag of 2-3 weeks for temperature increase from 28 to 30 °C; and lag of three weeks for increased rainfall. Proactive strategy is needed for dengue vector surveillance programme. One method would be to use the GOS trap which is simple to setup, cost effective (below USD 1 per trap) and environmental friendly (i.e. use recyclable plastic materials) to capture Ae. aegypti followed by a rapid method of detecting of dengue virus using the NS1 dengue antigen kit. Control measures should be initiated when positive mosquitoes are detected.

A new approach to modeling temperature-related mortality: Non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input.

PubMed

Lee, Cameron C; Sheridan, Scott C

2018-07-01

Temperature-mortality relationships are nonlinear, time-lagged, and can vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, all of which limits the applicability of simple regression models in describing these associations. This research demonstrates the utility of an alternative method for modeling such complex relationships that has gained recent traction in other environmental fields: nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models). All-cause mortality data and multiple temperature-based data sets were gathered from 41 different US cities, for the period 1975-2010, and subjected to ensemble NARX modeling. Models generally performed better in larger cities and during the winter season. Across the US, median absolute percentage errors were 10% (ranging from 4% to 15% in various cities), the average improvement in the r-squared over that of a simple persistence model was 17% (6-24%), and the hit rate for modeling spike days in mortality (>80th percentile) was 54% (34-71%). Mortality responded acutely to hot summer days, peaking at 0-2 days of lag before dropping precipitously, and there was an extended mortality response to cold winter days, peaking at 2-4 days of lag and dropping slowly and continuing for multiple weeks. Spring and autumn showed both of the aforementioned temperature-mortality relationships, but generally to a lesser magnitude than what was seen in summer or winter. When compared to distributed lag nonlinear models, NARX model output was nearly identical. These results highlight the applicability of NARX models for use in modeling complex and time-dependent relationships for various applications in epidemiology and environmental sciences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis and Enhancement of Low-Light-Level Performance of Photodiode-Type CMOS Active Pixel Images Operated with Sub-Threshold Reset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pain, Bedabrata; Yang, Guang; Ortiz, Monico; Wrigley, Christopher; Hancock, Bruce; Cunningham, Thomas

2000-01-01

Noise in photodiode-type CMOS active pixel sensors (APS) is primarily due to the reset (kTC) noise at the sense node, since it is difficult to implement in-pixel correlated double sampling for a 2-D array. Signal integrated on the photodiode sense node (SENSE) is calculated by measuring difference between the voltage on the column bus (COL) - before and after the reset (RST) is pulsed. Lower than kTC noise can be achieved with photodiode-type pixels by employing "softreset" technique. Soft-reset refers to resetting with both drain and gate of the n-channel reset transistor kept at the same potential, causing the sense node to be reset using sub-threshold MOSFET current. However, lowering of noise is achieved only at the expense higher image lag and low-light-level non-linearity. In this paper, we present an analysis to explain the noise behavior, show evidence of degraded performance under low-light levels, and describe new pixels that eliminate non-linearity and lag without compromising noise.

Association between temperature and emergency room visits for cardiorespiratory diseases, metabolic syndrome-related diseases, and accidents in metropolitan Taipei.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Chun; Lin, Yu-Kai

2014-01-01

This study evaluated risks of the emergency room visits (ERV) for cerebrovascular diseases, heart diseases, ischemic heart disease, hypertensive diseases, chronic renal failure (CRF), diabetes mellitus (DM), asthma, chronic airway obstruction not elsewhere classified (CAO), and accidents associated with the ambient temperature from 2000 to 2009 in metropolitan Taipei. The distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the cumulative relative risk (RR) and confidence interval (CI) of cause-specific ERV associated with daily temperature from lag 0 to lag 3 after controlling for potential confounders. This study identified that temperatures related to the lowest risk of ERV was 26 °C for cerebrovascular diseases, 18 °C for CRF, DM, and accidents, and 30 °C for hypertensive diseases, asthma, and CAO. These temperatures were used as the reference temperatures to measure RR for the corresponding diseases. A low temperature (14°C) increased the ERV risk for cerebrovascular diseases, hypertensive diseases, and asthma, with respective cumulative 4-day RRs of 1.56 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.97), 1.78 (95% CI: 1.37, 2.34), and 2.93 (95% CI: 1.26, 6.79). The effects were greater on, or after, lag one. At 32°C, the cumulative 4-day RR for ERV was significant for CRF (RR = 2.36; 95% CI: 1.33, 4.19) and accidents (RR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.33) and the highest RR was seen on lag 0 for CRF (RR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.58), DM (RR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.61), and accidents (RR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.27). Higher temperatures are associated with the increased ERV risks for CRF, DM, and accidents and lower temperatures with the increased ERV risks for cerebrovascular diseases, hypertensive diseases, and asthma in the subtropical metropolitan.

Association between Temperature and Emergency Room Visits for Cardiorespiratory Diseases, Metabolic Syndrome-Related Diseases, and Accidents in Metropolitan Taipei

PubMed Central

Wang, Yu-Chun; Lin, Yu-Kai

2014-01-01

Objective This study evaluated risks of the emergency room visits (ERV) for cerebrovascular diseases, heart diseases, ischemic heart disease, hypertensive diseases, chronic renal failure (CRF), diabetes mellitus (DM), asthma, chronic airway obstruction not elsewhere classified (CAO), and accidents associated with the ambient temperature from 2000 to 2009 in metropolitan Taipei. Methods The distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the cumulative relative risk (RR) and confidence interval (CI) of cause-specific ERV associated with daily temperature from lag 0 to lag 3 after controlling for potential confounders. Results This study identified that temperatures related to the lowest risk of ERV was 26 °C for cerebrovascular diseases, 18 °C for CRF, DM, and accidents, and 30 °C for hypertensive diseases, asthma, and CAO. These temperatures were used as the reference temperatures to measure RR for the corresponding diseases. A low temperature (14°C) increased the ERV risk for cerebrovascular diseases, hypertensive diseases, and asthma, with respective cumulative 4-day RRs of 1.56 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.97), 1.78 (95% CI: 1.37, 2.34), and 2.93 (95% CI: 1.26, 6.79). The effects were greater on, or after, lag one. At 32°C, the cumulative 4-day RR for ERV was significant for CRF (RR = 2.36; 95% CI: 1.33, 4.19) and accidents (RR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.33) and the highest RR was seen on lag 0 for CRF (RR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.58), DM (RR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.61), and accidents (RR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.27). Conclusions Higher temperatures are associated with the increased ERV risks for CRF, DM, and accidents and lower temperatures with the increased ERV risks for cerebrovascular diseases, hypertensive diseases, and asthma in the subtropical metropolitan. PMID:24932702

Emergency room visits associated with particulate concentration and Asian dust storms in metropolitan Taipei.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Kai; Chen, Chi-Feng; Yeh, Hui-Chung; Wang, Yu-Chun

2016-01-01

This study evaluated risks of emergency room visits (ERV) for all causes, circulatory diseases, and respiratory diseases associated with concentrations of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and Asian dust storms (ADS) from 2000 to 2008 in metropolitan Taipei. Cumulative 4-day (lag 0-3) relative risks (RR) and confidence intervals (CI) of cause-specific ERV associated with daily concentrations of PM10 or PM2.5 and ADS based on study period (ADS frequently inflicted period: 2000-2004 and less-inflicted period: 2005-2008) were estimated using a distributed lag non-linear model with Poisson distribution. Risks associated with ADS-inflicted season (winter and spring), strength (ratio of stations with Pollutant Standard Index above 100 is < 0.5 or ≥ 0.5), and duration (ADS lasting for 1-3 days or ≥ 4 days) were especially evaluated. In non-linear models, an increase in PM10 from 10 μg/m(3) to 50 μg/m(3) was associated with increased risk of ERV for all causes and respiratory disease with cumulative 4- day RR of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.24) and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.54), respectively. From 2005 to 2008, the cumulative 4-day RR for an ERV related to an increase in PM2.5 from 5 μg/m(3) to 30 μg/m(3) is 1.21 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.41) for respiratory diseases, and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.22) for all causes. In comparison with normal days, elevated ERV of all causes and respiratory diseases was also associated with winter ADS (with corresponding RRs of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.13) and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.21)) and shorter and less area-affected ADS (with corresponding RRs of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.10) and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.14)) from 2000 to 2004. Results of this study demonstrate that population health risk varies not only with PM concentration, but also with the ADS characteristics.

Analysis of Quasi-periodic Oscillations and Time Lag in Ultraluminous X-Ray Sources with XMM-Newton

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zi-Jian; Xiao, Guang-Cheng; Zhang, Shu

We investigated the power density spectrum (PDS) and time lag of ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs) observed by XMM-Newton . We determined the PDSs for each ULX and found that five of them show intrinsic variability due to obvious quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) of mHz–1 Hz, consistent with previous reports. We further investigated these five ULXs to determine their possible time lag. The ULX QPOs exhibit a soft time lag that is linearly related to the QPO frequency. We discuss the likelihood of the ULX QPOs being type-C QPO analogs, and the time lag models. The ULXs might harbor intermediate-mass black holesmore » if their QPOs are type-C QPO analogs. We suggest that the soft lag and the linearity may be due to reverberation.« less

Effects of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Hefei city, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jing; Xiao, Chang-chun; Li, Yu-rong; Zhang, Jun-qing; Zhai, Hao-yuan; Geng, Xi-ya; Ding, Rui; Zhai, Jin-xia

2017-12-01

Although several studies indicated an association between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and mortality, the results about modifiers are inconsistent, and few studies were conducted in developing inland country. This study aims to evaluate the effects of DTR on cause-specific mortality and whether season, gender, or age might modify any association in Hefei city, China, during 2007-2016. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression models combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were applied to evaluate the relationships between DTR and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We observed a J-shaped relationship between DTR and cause-specific mortality. With a DTR of 8.3 °C as the reference, the cumulative effects of extremely high DTR were significantly higher for all types of mortality than effects of lower or moderate DTR in full year. When stratified by season, extremely high DTR in spring had a greater impact on all cause-specific mortality than other three seasons. Male and the elderly (≥ 65 years) were consistently more susceptible to extremely high DTR effect than female and the youth (< 65 years) for non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. To the contrary, female and the youth were more susceptible to extremely high DTR effect than male and the elderly for respiratory morality. The study suggests that extremely high DTR is a potential trigger for non-accidental mortality in Hefei city, China. Our findings also highlight the importance of protecting susceptible groups from extremely high DTR especially in the spring.

Effects of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Hefei city, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jing; Xiao, Chang-chun; Li, Yu-rong; Zhang, Jun-qing; Zhai, Hao-yuan; Geng, Xi-ya; Ding, Rui; Zhai, Jin-xia

2018-05-01

Although several studies indicated an association between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and mortality, the results about modifiers are inconsistent, and few studies were conducted in developing inland country. This study aims to evaluate the effects of DTR on cause-specific mortality and whether season, gender, or age might modify any association in Hefei city, China, during 2007-2016. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression models combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were applied to evaluate the relationships between DTR and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We observed a J-shaped relationship between DTR and cause-specific mortality. With a DTR of 8.3 °C as the reference, the cumulative effects of extremely high DTR were significantly higher for all types of mortality than effects of lower or moderate DTR in full year. When stratified by season, extremely high DTR in spring had a greater impact on all cause-specific mortality than other three seasons. Male and the elderly (≥ 65 years) were consistently more susceptible to extremely high DTR effect than female and the youth (< 65 years) for non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. To the contrary, female and the youth were more susceptible to extremely high DTR effect than male and the elderly for respiratory morality. The study suggests that extremely high DTR is a potential trigger for non-accidental mortality in Hefei city, China. Our findings also highlight the importance of protecting susceptible groups from extremely high DTR especially in the spring.

The association between diurnal temperature range and childhood bacillary dysentery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Li-ying; Zhao, Ke-fu; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Xu; Yang, Hui-hui; Li, Ke-sheng; Xu, Zhi-wei; Su, Hong

2016-02-01

Previous studies have found that mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any impact on bacillary dysentery. The current study aimed to identify the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and BD in Hefei, China. Daily data on BD counts among children aged 0-14 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012 were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on ambient temperature and relative humidity covering the same period were collected from the Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used in the analysis after controlling the effects of season, long-term trends, mean temperature, and relative humidity. The results showed that there existed a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood BD. The DTR effect on childhood bacillary dysentery increased when DTR was over 8 °C. And it was greatest at 1-day lag, with an 8 % (95 % CI = 2.9-13.4 %) increase of BD cases per 5 °C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 0-5 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect. The data indicate that large DTR may increase the incidence of childhood BD. Caregivers and health practitioners should be made aware of the potential threat posed by large DTR. Therefore, DTR should be taken into consideration when making targeted health policies and programs to protect children from being harmed by climate impacts.

The association between diurnal temperature range and childhood bacillary dysentery.

PubMed

Wen, Li-ying; Zhao, Ke-fu; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Xu; Yang, Hui-hui; Li, Ke-sheng; Xu, Zhi-wei; Su, Hong

2016-02-01

Previous studies have found that mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any impact on bacillary dysentery. The current study aimed to identify the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and BD in Hefei, China. Daily data on BD counts among children aged 0-14 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012 were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on ambient temperature and relative humidity covering the same period were collected from the Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used in the analysis after controlling the effects of season, long-term trends, mean temperature, and relative humidity. The results showed that there existed a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood BD. The DTR effect on childhood bacillary dysentery increased when DTR was over 8 °C. And it was greatest at 1-day lag, with an 8% (95% CI = 2.9-13.4%) increase of BD cases per 5 °C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 0-5 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect. The data indicate that large DTR may increase the incidence of childhood BD. Caregivers and health practitioners should be made aware of the potential threat posed by large DTR. Therefore, DTR should be taken into consideration when making targeted health policies and programs to protect children from being harmed by climate impacts.

Is high relative humidity associated with childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease in rural and urban areas?

PubMed

Yang, H; Wu, J; Cheng, J; Wang, X; Wen, L; Li, K; Su, H

2017-01-01

To examine the relationship between relative humidity and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Hefei, China, and to explore whether the effect is different between urban and rural areas. Retrospective ecological study. A Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between relative humidity and childhood HFMD in a temperate Chinese city during 2010-2012. The effect of relative humidity on childhood HFMD increased above a humidity of 84%, with a 0.34% (95% CI: 0.23%-0.45%) increase of childhood HFMD per 1% increment of relative humidity. Notably, urban children, male children, and children aged 0-4 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the effect of relative humidity on HFMD. This article study indicates that high relative humidity may trigger childhood HFMD in a temperate area, Hefei, particularly for those who are young and from urban areas. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical Fluctuations in Cortical Models Near Instability

PubMed Central

Aburn, Matthew J.; Holmes, C. A.; Roberts, James A.; Boonstra, Tjeerd W.; Breakspear, Michael

2012-01-01

Computational studies often proceed from the premise that cortical dynamics operate in a linearly stable domain, where fluctuations dissipate quickly and show only short memory. Studies of human electroencephalography (EEG), however, have shown significant autocorrelation at time lags on the scale of minutes, indicating the need to consider regimes where non-linearities influence the dynamics. Statistical properties such as increased autocorrelation length, increased variance, power law scaling, and bistable switching have been suggested as generic indicators of the approach to bifurcation in non-linear dynamical systems. We study temporal fluctuations in a widely-employed computational model (the Jansen–Rit model) of cortical activity, examining the statistical signatures that accompany bifurcations. Approaching supercritical Hopf bifurcations through tuning of the background excitatory input, we find a dramatic increase in the autocorrelation length that depends sensitively on the direction in phase space of the input fluctuations and hence on which neuronal subpopulation is stochastically perturbed. Similar dependence on the input direction is found in the distribution of fluctuation size and duration, which show power law scaling that extends over four orders of magnitude at the Hopf bifurcation. We conjecture that the alignment in phase space between the input noise vector and the center manifold of the Hopf bifurcation is directly linked to these changes. These results are consistent with the possibility of statistical indicators of linear instability being detectable in real EEG time series. However, even in a simple cortical model, we find that these indicators may not necessarily be visible even when bifurcations are present because their expression can depend sensitively on the neuronal pathway of incoming fluctuations. PMID:22952464

Effect of lag time distribution on the lag phase of bacterial growth - a Monte Carlo analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study is to use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the effect of lag time distribution of individual bacterial cells incubated under isothermal conditions on the development of lag phase. The growth of bacterial cells of the same initial concentration and mean lag phase durati...

Applications of information theory, genetic algorithms, and neural models to predict oil flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Oswaldo; Nunes, Urbano; Araújo, Rui; Schnitman, Leizer; Lepikson, Herman Augusto

2009-07-01

This work introduces a new information-theoretic methodology for choosing variables and their time lags in a prediction setting, particularly when neural networks are used in non-linear modeling. The first contribution of this work is the Cross Entropy Function (XEF) proposed to select input variables and their lags in order to compose the input vector of black-box prediction models. The proposed XEF method is more appropriate than the usually applied Cross Correlation Function (XCF) when the relationship among the input and output signals comes from a non-linear dynamic system. The second contribution is a method that minimizes the Joint Conditional Entropy (JCE) between the input and output variables by means of a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The aim is to take into account the dependence among the input variables when selecting the most appropriate set of inputs for a prediction problem. In short, theses methods can be used to assist the selection of input training data that have the necessary information to predict the target data. The proposed methods are applied to a petroleum engineering problem; predicting oil production. Experimental results obtained with a real-world dataset are presented demonstrating the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

The washout effects of rainfall on atmospheric particulate pollution in two Chinese cities.

PubMed

Guo, Ling-Chuan; Zhang, Yonghui; Lin, Hualiang; Zeng, Weilin; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Rutherford, Shannon; You, Jing; Ma, Wenjun

2016-08-01

Though rainfall is recognized as one of the main mechanisms to reduce atmospheric particulate pollution, few studies have quantified this effect, particularly the corresponding lag effect and threshold. This study aimed to investigate the association between rainfall and air quality using a distributed lag non-linear model. Daily data on ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm and from 2.5 to 10 μm) and meteorological factors were collected in Guangzhou and Xi'an from 2013 to 2014. A better washout effect was found for PM2.5-10 than for PM2.5, and the rainfall thresholds for both particle fractions were 7 mm in Guangzhou and 1 mm in Xi'an. The decrease in PM2.5 levels following rain lasted for 3 and 6 days in Guangzhou and Xi'an, respectively. Rainfall had a better washout effect in Xi'an compared with that in Guangzhou. Findings from this study contribute to a better understanding of the washout effects of rainfall on particulate pollution, which may help to understand the category and sustainability of dust-haze and enforce anthropogenic control measures in time. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increases in external cause mortality due to high and low temperatures: evidence from northeastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orru, Hans; Åström, Daniel Oudin

2017-05-01

The relationship between temperature and mortality is well established but has seldom been investigated in terms of external causes. In some Eastern European countries, external cause mortality is substantial. Deaths owing to external causes are the third largest cause of mortality in Estonia, after cardiovascular disease and cancer. Death rates owing to external causes may reflect behavioural changes among a population. The aim for the current study was to investigate if there is any association between temperature and external cause mortality, in Estonia. We collected daily information on deaths from external causes (ICD-10 diagnosis codes V00-Y99) and maximum temperatures over the period 1997-2013. The relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality was investigated using Poisson regression, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model considering lag times of up to 10 days. We found significantly higher mortality owing to external causes on hot (the same and previous day) and cold days (with a lag of 1-3 days). The cumulative relative risks for heat (an increase in temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile) were 1.24 (95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.34) and for cold (a decrease from the 25th to 1st percentile) 1.19 (1.03-1.38). Deaths due to external causes might reflect changes in behaviour among a population during periods of extreme hot and cold temperatures and should therefore be investigated further, because such deaths have a severe impact on public health, especially in Eastern Europe where external mortality rates are high.

Effect of the shape of the exposure-response function on estimated hospital costs in a study on non-elective pneumonia hospitalizations related to particulate matter.

PubMed

Devos, Stefanie; Cox, Bianca; van Lier, Tom; Nawrot, Tim S; Putman, Koen

2016-09-01

We used log-linear and log-log exposure-response (E-R) functions to model the association between PM2.5 exposure and non-elective hospitalizations for pneumonia, and estimated the attributable hospital costs by using the effect estimates obtained from both functions. We used hospital discharge data on 3519 non-elective pneumonia admissions from UZ Brussels between 2007 and 2012 and we combined a case-crossover design with distributed lag models. The annual averted pneumonia hospitalization costs for a reduction in PM2.5 exposure from the mean (21.4μg/m(3)) to the WHO guideline for annual mean PM2.5 (10μg/m(3)) were estimated and extrapolated for Belgium. Non-elective hospitalizations for pneumonia were significantly associated with PM2.5 exposure in both models. Using a log-linear E-R function, the estimated risk reduction for pneumonia hospitalization associated with a decrease in mean PM2.5 exposure to 10μg/m(3) was 4.9%. The corresponding estimate for the log-log model was 10.7%. These estimates translate to an annual pneumonia hospital cost saving in Belgium of €15.5 million and almost €34 million for the log-linear and log-log E-R function, respectively. Although further research is required to assess the shape of the association between PM2.5 exposure and pneumonia hospitalizations, we demonstrated that estimates for health effects and associated costs heavily depend on the assumed E-R function. These results are important for policy making, as supra-linear E-R associations imply that significant health benefits may still be obtained from additional pollution control measures in areas where PM levels have already been reduced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oscillatory shear rheology measurements and Newtonian modeling of insoluble monolayers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasheed, Fayaz; Raghunandan, Aditya; Hirsa, Amir H.; Lopez, Juan M.

2017-04-01

Circular systems are advantageous for interfacial studies since they do not suffer from end effects, but their hydrodynamics is more complicated because their flows are not unidirectional. Here, we analyze the shear rheology of a harmonically driven knife-edge viscometer through experiments and computations based on the Navier-Stokes equations with a Newtonian interface. The measured distribution of phase lag in the surface velocity relative to the knife-edge speed is found to have a good signal-to-noise ratio and provides robust comparisons to the computations. For monomolecular films of stearic acid, the surface shear viscosity deduced from the model was found to be the same whether the film is driven steady or oscillatory, for an order of magnitude range in driving frequencies and amplitudes. Results show that increasing either the amplitude or forcing frequency steepens the phase lag next to the knife edge. In all cases, the phase lag is linearly proportional to the radial distance from the knife edge and scales with surface shear viscosity to the power -1 /2 .

[Complexity and its integrative effects of the time lags of environment factors affecting Larix gmelinii stem sap flow].

PubMed

Wang, Hui-Mei; Sun, Wei; Zu, Yuan-Gang; Wang, Wen-Jie

2011-12-01

Based on the one-year (2005) observations with a frequency of half hour on the stem sap flow of Larix gmelinii plantation trees planted in 1969 and the related environmental factors air humidity (RH), air temperature (T(air)), photosynthetic components active radiation (PAR), soil temperature (T(soil)), and soil moisture (TDR), principal analysis (PCA) and correction analysis were made on the time lag effect of the stem flow in different seasons (26 days of each season) and in a year via dislocation analysis, with the complexity and its integrative effects of the time lags of environment factors affecting the stem sap flow approached. The results showed that in different seasons and for different environmental factors, the time lag effect varied obviously. In general, the time lag of PAR was 0.5-1 hour ahead of sap flow, that of T(air) and RH was 0-2 hours ahead of or behind the sap flow, and the time lags of T(soil) and TDR were much longer or sometimes undetectable. Because of the complexity of the time lags, no evident improvements were observed in the linear correlations (R2, slope, and intercept) when the time lags based on short-term (20 days) data were used to correct the time lags based on whole year data. However, obvious improvements were found in the standardized and non-standardized correlation coefficients in stepwise multiple regressions, i.e., the time lag corrections could improve the effects of RH, but decreased the effects of PAR, T(air), and T(soil). PCA could be used to simplify the complexity. The first and the second principal components could stand for over 75% information of all the environmental factors in different seasons and in whole year. The time lags of both the first and the second principal components were 1-1.5 hours in advance of the sap flow, except in winter (no time lag effect).

A nonlinear lag correction algorithm for a-Si flat-panel x-ray detectors

PubMed Central

Starman, Jared; Star-Lack, Josh; Virshup, Gary; Shapiro, Edward; Fahrig, Rebecca

2012-01-01

Purpose: Detector lag, or residual signal, in a-Si flat-panel (FP) detectors can cause significant shading artifacts in cone-beam computed tomography reconstructions. To date, most correction models have assumed a linear, time-invariant (LTI) model and correct lag by deconvolution with an impulse response function (IRF). However, the lag correction is sensitive to both the exposure intensity and the technique used for determining the IRF. Even when the LTI correction that produces the minimum error is found, residual artifact remains. A new non-LTI method was developed to take into account the IRF measurement technique and exposure dependencies. Methods: First, a multiexponential (N = 4) LTI model was implemented for lag correction. Next, a non-LTI lag correction, known as the nonlinear consistent stored charge (NLCSC) method, was developed based on the LTI multiexponential method. It differs from other nonlinear lag correction algorithms in that it maintains a consistent estimate of the amount of charge stored in the FP and it does not require intimate knowledge of the semiconductor parameters specific to the FP. For the NLCSC method, all coefficients of the IRF are functions of exposure intensity. Another nonlinear lag correction method that only used an intensity weighting of the IRF was also compared. The correction algorithms were applied to step-response projection data and CT acquisitions of a large pelvic phantom and an acrylic head phantom. The authors collected rising and falling edge step-response data on a Varian 4030CB a-Si FP detector operating in dynamic gain mode at 15 fps at nine incident exposures (2.0%–92% of the detector saturation exposure). For projection data, 1st and 50th frame lag were measured before and after correction. For the CT reconstructions, five pairs of ROIs were defined and the maximum and mean signal differences within a pair were calculated for the different exposures and step-response edge techniques. Results: The LTI corrections left residual 1st and 50th frame lag up to 1.4% and 0.48%, while the NLCSC lag correction reduced 1st and 50th frame residual lags to less than 0.29% and 0.0052%. For CT reconstructions, the NLCSC lag correction gave an average error of 11 HU for the pelvic phantom and 3 HU for the head phantom, compared to 14–19 HU and 2–11 HU for the LTI corrections and 15 HU and 9 HU for the intensity weighted non-LTI algorithm. The maximum ROI error was always smallest for the NLCSC correction. The NLCSC correction was also superior to the intensity weighting algorithm. Conclusions: The NLCSC lag algorithm corrected for the exposure dependence of lag, provided superior image improvement for the pelvic phantom reconstruction, and gave similar results to the best case LTI results for the head phantom. The blurred ring artifact that is left over in the LTI corrections was better removed by the NLCSC correction in all cases. PMID:23039642

Effective Iterated Greedy Algorithm for Flow-Shop Scheduling Problems with Time lags

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ZHAO, Ning; YE, Song; LI, Kaidian; CHEN, Siyu

2017-05-01

Flow shop scheduling problem with time lags is a practical scheduling problem and attracts many studies. Permutation problem(PFSP with time lags) is concentrated but non-permutation problem(non-PFSP with time lags) seems to be neglected. With the aim to minimize the makespan and satisfy time lag constraints, efficient algorithms corresponding to PFSP and non-PFSP problems are proposed, which consist of iterated greedy algorithm for permutation(IGTLP) and iterated greedy algorithm for non-permutation (IGTLNP). The proposed algorithms are verified using well-known simple and complex instances of permutation and non-permutation problems with various time lag ranges. The permutation results indicate that the proposed IGTLP can reach near optimal solution within nearly 11% computational time of traditional GA approach. The non-permutation results indicate that the proposed IG can reach nearly same solution within less than 1% computational time compared with traditional GA approach. The proposed research combines PFSP and non-PFSP together with minimal and maximal time lag consideration, which provides an interesting viewpoint for industrial implementation.

On the phase lag of turbulent dissipation in rotating tidal flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qianjiang; Wu, Jiaxue

2018-03-01

Field observations of rotating tidal flows in a shallow tidally swept sea reveal that a notable phase lag of both shear production and turbulent dissipation increases with height above the seafloor. These vertical delays of turbulent quantities are approximately equivalent in magnitude to that of squared mean shear. The shear production approximately equals turbulent dissipation over the phase-lag column, and thus a main mechanism of phase lag of dissipation is mean shear, rather than vertical diffusion of turbulent kinetic energy. By relating the phase lag of dissipation to that of the mean shear, a simple formulation with constant eddy viscosity is developed to describe the phase lag in rotating tidal flows. An analytical solution indicates that the phase lag increases linearly with height subjected to a combined effect of tidal frequency, Coriolis parameter and eddy viscosity. The vertical diffusion of momentum associated with eddy viscosity produces the phase lag of squared mean shear, and resultant delay of turbulent quantities. Its magnitude is inhibited by Earth's rotation. Furthermore, a theoretical formulation of the phase lag with a parabolic eddy viscosity profile can be constructed. A first-order approximation of this formulation is still a linear function of height, and its magnitude is approximately 0.8 times that with constant viscosity. Finally, the theoretical solutions of phase lag with realistic viscosity can be satisfactorily justified by realistic phase lags of dissipation.

Unified Framework for Deriving Simultaneous Equation Algorithms for Water Distribution Networks

EPA Science Inventory

The known formulations for steady state hydraulics within looped water distribution networks are re-derived in terms of linear and non-linear transformations of the original set of partly linear and partly non-linear equations that express conservation of mass and energy. All of ...

Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation

PubMed Central

Guo, Yuming; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Li, Shanshan; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Leone, Michela; Pan, Xiaochuan; Tong, Shilu; Tian, Linwei; Kim, Ho; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Yi, Seung-Muk; Michelozzi, Paola; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail

2014-01-01

Background Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. Methods We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the non-linear and delayed relationship between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing over-dispersion with distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relationship. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the non-linear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. Results The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, while hot effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Conclusions People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with the risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change. PMID:25166878

An experimental and analytical investigation of stall effects on flap-lag stability in forward flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagabhushanam, J.; Gaonkar, Gopal H.; Mcnulty, Michael J.

1987-01-01

Experiments have been performed with a 1.62 m diameter hingeless rotor in a wind tunnel to investigate flap-lag stability of isolated rotors in forward flight. The three-bladed rotor model closely approaches the simple theoretical concept of a hingeless rotor as a set of rigid, articulated flap-lag blades with offset and spring restrained flap and lag hinges. Lag regressing mode stability data was obtained for advance ratios as high as 0.55 for various combinations of collective pitch and shaft angle. The prediction includes quasi-steady stall effects on rotor trim and Floquet stability analyses. Correlation between data and prediction is presented and is compared with that of an earlier study based on a linear theory without stall effects. While the results with stall effects show marked differences from the linear theory results, the stall theory still falls short of adequate agreement with the experimental data.

Utilization of the Bridging Strategy for the Development of New Drugs in Oncology to Avoid Drug Lag.

PubMed

Kogure, Seiji; Koyama, Nobuyuki; Hidaka, Shinji

2017-11-01

Global trial (GT) strategy and bridging (BG) strategy are currently the main clinical development strategies of oncology drugs in Japan, but the relationship between development style and drug lag and how the bridging strategy has contributed to the solution of drug lag have not been clear. We investigated the potential factors that influenced submission lag (SL), and also compared the differences in SL among early-initiation BG strategy, late-initiation BG strategy, and GT strategy. A stepwise linear regression analysis identified the potential factors that shorten SL: development start lag and development style. Comparison of the differences in SL among the strategies also indicated that the SL in the GT strategy and that in the early-initiation BG strategy were significantly shorter than that in the late-initiation BG strategy. The findings in our study suggest that the late-initiation BG strategy may not contribute to shortening drug lag. Because the number of late-initiation BG studies has not decreased, we propose first that pharmaceutical companies should initiate clinical development as early as possible in Japan so that they can choose the GT strategy as a first option at the next step, and second when they cannot choose the GT strategy after investigating differences in exposure between Japanese and non-Japanese in a phase 1 study, they should select the early BG strategy to avoid future drug lag. It is also important for the regulatory authorities to provide reasonable guidance to have a positive impact on strategic decisions, even for foreign-capital companies. © 2017, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Jun; Woodward, Alistair; Li, Mengmeng; He, Tianfeng; Wang, Aihong; Lu, Beibei; Liu, Xiaobo; Xu, Guozhang; Liu, Qiyong

2017-01-01

Few studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of visibility and haze, which may be regarded as proxy indicators of ambient air pollution. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the relationship between visibility, haze and mortality in Ningbo, a coastal city of China. We found that the mortality risk of visibility was statistically significant only on the current day, while the risk of haze and PM10 peaked on the second day and could last for three days. When the visibility was less than 10 km, each 1 km decrease of visibility at lag 0 day was associated with a 0.78% (95% CI: 0.22–1.36%) increase in total mortality and a 1.61% (95% CI: 0.39–2.85%) increase in respiratory mortality. The excess risk of haze at lag 0–2 days on total mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 7.76% (95% CI: 3.29–12.42%), 7.73% (95% CI: 0.12–15.92%) and 17.77% (95% CI: 7.64–28.86%), respectively. Greater effects of air pollution were observed during the cold season than in the warm season, and the elderly were at higher risk compared to youths. The effects of visibility and haze were attenuated by single pollutants. These findings suggest that visibility and haze could be used as surrogates of air quality where pollutant data are scarce, and strengthen the evidence to develop policy to control air pollution and protect vulnerable populations. PMID:29156645

Assessing protein conformational sampling methods based on bivariate lag-distributions of backbone angles

PubMed Central

Maadooliat, Mehdi; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2013-01-01

Despite considerable progress in the past decades, protein structure prediction remains one of the major unsolved problems in computational biology. Angular-sampling-based methods have been extensively studied recently due to their ability to capture the continuous conformational space of protein structures. The literature has focused on using a variety of parametric models of the sequential dependencies between angle pairs along the protein chains. In this article, we present a thorough review of angular-sampling-based methods by assessing three main questions: What is the best distribution type to model the protein angles? What is a reasonable number of components in a mixture model that should be considered to accurately parameterize the joint distribution of the angles? and What is the order of the local sequence–structure dependency that should be considered by a prediction method? We assess the model fits for different methods using bivariate lag-distributions of the dihedral/planar angles. Moreover, the main information across the lags can be extracted using a technique called Lag singular value decomposition (LagSVD), which considers the joint distribution of the dihedral/planar angles over different lags using a nonparametric approach and monitors the behavior of the lag-distribution of the angles using singular value decomposition. As a result, we developed graphical tools and numerical measurements to compare and evaluate the performance of different model fits. Furthermore, we developed a web-tool (http://www.stat.tamu.edu/∼madoliat/LagSVD) that can be used to produce informative animations. PMID:22926831

On the Nature of QPO Phase Lags in Black Hole Candidates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaposhnikov, Nikolai

2012-01-01

Observations of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in X-ray binaries hold a key to understanding many aspects of these enigmatic systems. Complex appearance of the Fourier phase lags related to QPOs is one of the most puzzling observational effects in accreting black holes. In this Letter we show that QPO properties, including phase lags, can be explained in a framework of a simple scenario, where the oscillating media provides a feedback on the emerging spectrum. We demonstrate that the QPO waveform is presented by the product of a perturbation and a time delayed response factors, where the response is energy dependent. The essential property of this effect is its non-linear and multiplicative nature. Our multiplicative reverberation model successfully describes the QPO components in energy dependent power spectra as well as the appearance of the phase lags between signal in different energy bands. We apply our model to QPOs observed by Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer in BH candidate XTE J1550-564. We briefly discuss the implications of the observed energy dependence of the QPO reverberation times and amplitudes to the nature of the power law spectral component and its variability.

[The short-term effects of air pollution on mortality: the results of the EMECAM project in the city of Pamplona, 1991-95. Estudio Multicéntrico Español sobre la Relación entre la Contaminación Atmosférica y la Mortalidad].

PubMed

Aguinaga Ontoso, I; Guillén Grima, F; Oviedo de Sola, P J; Floristan Floristan, M Y; Laborda Santesteban, M S; Martínez Ramírez, M T; Martínez González, M A

1999-01-01

To assess the short-term impact of air pollution on the daily death rate in the city of Pamplona. Ecological study with a population of 212,000 inhabitants. A time series data analysis is conducted by means of multiple linear regression and Poisson regression, with the daily death rate data, air pollution levels for Particles and SO2, weather parameters of average relative humidity and temperature daily and number of cases weekly of flu for the 1991-1995 period. The average number of deaths daily for non-external causes is that of 4.15 deaths, with a range from zero to 13 deaths. The city of Pamplona has a mean annual temperature of 12.7 degrees C (-2.3 degrees C to 31.6 degrees C) and a relative humidity of 68.5%. In the model, the temperature (with a one-day time lag and a six-day time lag temperature squared) and the humidity (with a one-day time lag) is related to the death rate for all causes. But the death rate for non-external causes is only related in the model with the temperature (one-day time lag, P: 0.035) and five-day time lag with temperature squared (p: 0.028). The timely estimates of the relative particle-related risk show that the highest risk of dying stems from respiratory causes with a relative risk of 1.13. However, none of these relationships is statistically significant. In the case of Sulfur Dioxide, the estimates closely near the zero figure, and none of them is significant. The Temperature has an impact of the death rate for all causes, both external and non-external, and the relative humidity solely has an impact on the death rate for non-external causes. It has not been possible to prove any influence of the daily environmental pollution levels on the daily death rate.

Impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia estimated from satellite remote sensing.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; Liu, Yang; Ma, Zongwei; Li, Shenghui; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2014-07-01

The effect of temperature on childhood pneumonia in subtropical regions is largely unknown so far. This study examined the impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia in Brisbane, Australia. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the main effect of temperature on emergency department visits (EDVs) for childhood pneumonia in Brisbane from 2001 to 2010. The model residuals were checked to identify added effects due to heat waves or cold spells. Both high and low temperatures were associated with an increase in EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Children aged 2-5 years, and female children were particularly vulnerable to the impacts of heat and cold, and Indigenous children were sensitive to heat. Heat waves and cold spells had significant added effects on childhood pneumonia, and the magnitude of these effects increased with intensity and duration. There were changes over time in both the main and added effects of temperature on childhood pneumonia. Children, especially those female and Indigenous, should be particularly protected from extreme temperatures. Future development of early warning systems should take the change over time in the impact of temperature on children's health into account. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of temperature on mortality in Hubei, China: a multi-county time series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yunquan; Yu, Chuanhua; Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong

2017-03-01

We examined the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province, central China, during 2009-2012. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was first applied to estimate county-specific relationship between temperature and mortality. A multivariable meta-analysis was then used to pool the estimates of county-specific mortality effects of extreme cold temperature (1st percentile) and hot temperature (99th percentile). An inverse J-shaped relationship was observed between temperature and mortality at the provincial level. Heat effect occurred immediately and persisted for 2-3 days, whereas cold effect was 1-2 days delayed and much longer lasting. Higher mortality risks were observed among females, the elderly aged over 75 years, persons dying outside the hospital and those with high education attainment, especially for cold effects. Our data revealed some slight differences in heat- and cold- related mortality effects on urban and rural residents. These findings may have important implications for developing locally-based preventive and intervention strategies to reduce temperature-related mortality, especially for those susceptible subpopulations. Also, urbanization should be considered as a potential influence factor when evaluating temperature-mortality association in future researches.

The burden of COPD mortality due to ambient air pollution in Guangzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li; Yang, Jun; Song, Yun-Feng; Chen, Ping-Yan; Ou, Chun-Quan

2016-05-01

Few studies have investigated the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality fraction attributable to air pollution and modification by individual characteristics of air pollution effects. We applied distributed lag non-linear models to assess the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality in 2007-2011 in Guangzhou, China, and the total COPD mortality fraction attributable to air pollution was calculated as well. We found that an increase of 10 μg/m3 in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was associated with a 1.58% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12-3.06%), 3.45% (95% CI: 1.30-5.66%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.42-4.32%) increase of COPD mortality over a lag of 0-15 days, respectively. Greater air pollution effects were observed in the elderly, males and residents with low educational attainment. The results showed 10.91% (95% CI: 1.02-9.58%), 12.71% (95% CI: 5.03-19.85%) and 13.38% (95% CI: 2.67-22.84%) COPD mortality was attributable to current PM10, SO2 and NO2 exposure, respectively. In conclusion, the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality differed by individual characteristics. There were remarkable COPD mortality burdens attributable to air pollution in Guangzhou.

Effect of heat shock and recovery temperature on variability of single cell lag time of Cronobacter turicensis.

PubMed

Xu, Y Zh; Métris, A; Stasinopoulos, D M; Forsythe, S J; Sutherland, J P

2015-02-01

The effect of heat stress and subsequent recovery temperature on the individual cellular lag of Cronobacter turicensis was analysed using optical density measurements. Low numbers of cells were obtained through serial dilution and the time to reach an optical density of 0.035 was determined. Assuming the lag of a single cell follows a shifted Gamma distribution with a fixed shape parameter, the effect of recovery temperature on the individual lag of untreated and sublethally heat treated cells of Cr. turicensis were modelled. It was found that the shift parameter (Tshift) increased asymptotically as the temperature decreased while the logarithm of the scale parameter (θ) decreased linearly with recovery temperature. To test the validity of the model in food, growth of low numbers of untreated and heat treated Cr. turicensis in artificially contaminated infant first milk was measured experimentally and compared with predictions obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Although the model for untreated cells slightly underestimated the actual growth in first milk at low temperatures, the model for heat treated cells was in agreement with the data derived from the challenge tests and provides a basis for reliable quantitative microbiological risk assessments for Cronobacter spp. in infant milk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The lagged effect of cold temperature and wind chill on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland

PubMed Central

Carder, M; McNamee, R; Beverland, I; Elton, R; Cohen, G; Boyd, J; Agius, R

2005-01-01

Aims: To investigate the lagged effects of cold temperature on cardiorespiratory mortality and to determine whether "wind chill" is a better predictor of these effects than "dry bulb" temperature. Methods: Generalised linear Poisson regression models were used to investigate the relation between mortality and "dry bulb" and "wind chill" temperatures in the three largest Scottish cities (Glasgow, Edinburgh, and Aberdeen) between January 1981 and December 2001. Effects of temperature on mortality (lags up to one month) were quantified. Analyses were conducted for the whole year and by season (cool and warm seasons). Main results: Temperature was a significant predictor of mortality with the strongest association observed between temperature and respiratory mortality. There was a non-linear association between mortality and temperature. Mortality increased as temperatures fell throughout the range, but the rate of increase was steeper at temperatures below 11°C. The association between temperature and mortality persisted at lag periods beyond two weeks but the effect size generally decreased with increasing lag. For temperatures below 11°C, a 1°C drop in the daytime mean temperature on any one day was associated with an increase in mortality of 2.9% (95% CI 2.5 to 3.4), 3.4% (95% CI 2.6 to 4.1), 4.8% (95% CI 3.5 to 6.2) and 1.7% (95% CI 1.0 to 2.4) over the following month for all cause, cardiovascular, respiratory, and "other" cause mortality respectively. The effect of temperature on mortality was not observed to be significantly modified by season. There was little indication that "wind chill" temperature was a better predictor of mortality than "dry bulb" temperature. Conclusions: Exposure to cold temperature is an important public health problem in Scotland, particularly for those dying from respiratory disease. PMID:16169916

Temporal dynamic of malaria in a suburban area along the Niger River.

PubMed

Sissoko, Mahamadou Soumana; Sissoko, Kourane; Kamate, Bourama; Samake, Yacouba; Goita, Siaka; Dabo, Abdoulaye; Yena, Mama; Dessay, Nadine; Piarroux, Renaud; Doumbo, Ogobara K; Gaudart, Jean

2017-10-23

Even if rainfall and temperature are factors classically associated to malaria, little is known about other meteorological factors, their variability and combinations related to malaria, in association with river height variations. Furthermore, in suburban area, urbanization and growing population density should be assessed in relation to these environmental factors. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of combined environmental, meteorological and hydrological factors on malaria incidence through time in the context of urbanization. Population observational data were prospectively collected. Clinical malaria was defined as the presence of parasites in addition to clinical symptoms. Meteorological and hydrological factors were measured daily. For each factors variation indices were estimated. Urbanization was yearly estimated assessing satellite imaging and field investigations. Principal component analysis was used for dimension reduction and factors combination. Lags between malaria incidences and the main components were assessed by cross-correlation functions. Generalized additive model was used to assess relative impact of different environmental components, taking into account lags, and modelling non-linear relationships. Change-point analysis was used to determine transmission periods within years. Malaria incidences were dominated by annual periodicity and varied through time without modification of the dynamic, with no impact of the urbanization. The main meteorological factor associated with malaria was a combination of evaporation, humidity and rainfall, with a lag of 3 months. The relationship between combined temperature factors showed a linear impact until reaching high temperatures limiting malaria incidence, with a lag 3.25 months. Height and variation of the river were related to malaria incidence (respectively 6 week lag and no lag). The study emphasizes no decreasing trend of malaria incidence despite accurate access to care and control strategies in accordance to international recommendations. Furthermore, no decreasing trend was showed despite the urbanization of the area. Malaria transmission remain increase 3 months after the beginning of the dry season. Addition to evaporation versus humidity/rainfall, nonlinear relationship for temperature and river height and variations have to be taken into account when implementing malaria control programmes.

Association between Daily Hydrogen Sulfide Exposure and Incidence of Emergency Hospital Visits: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Finnbjornsdottir, Ragnhildur Gudrun; Carlsen, Hanne Krage; Thorsteinsson, Throstur; Oudin, Anna; Lund, Sigrun Helga; Gislason, Thorarinn; Rafnsson, Vilhjalmur

2016-01-01

Background The adverse health effects of high concentrations of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) exposure are well known, though the possible effects of low concentrations have not been thoroughly studied. The aim was to study short-term associations between modelled ambient low-level concentrations of intermittent hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and emergency hospital visits with heart diseases (HD), respiratory diseases, and stroke as primary diagnosis. Methods The study is population-based, using data from patient-, and population-registers from the only acute care institution in the Reykjavik capital area, between 1 January, 2007 and 30 June, 2014. The study population was individuals (≥18yr) living in the Reykjavik capital area. The H2S emission originates from a geothermal power plant in the vicinity. A model was used to estimate H2S exposure in different sections of the area. A generalized linear model assuming Poisson distribution was used to investigate the association between emergency hospital visits and H2S exposure. Distributed lag models were adjusted for seasonality, gender, age, traffic zones, and other relevant factors. Lag days from 0 to 4 were considered. Results The total number of emergency hospital visits was 32961 with a mean age of 70 years. In fully adjusted un-stratified models, H2S concentrations exceeding 7.00μg/m3 were associated with increases in emergency hospital visits with HD as primary diagnosis at lag 0 risk ratio (RR): 1.067; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024–1.111, lag 2 RR: 1.049; 95%CI: 1.005–1.095, and lag 4 RR: 1.046; 95%CI: 1.004–1.089. Among males an association was found between H2S concentrations exceeding 7.00μg/m3, and HD at lag 0 RR: 1.087; 95%CI: 1.032–1.146 and lag 4 RR: 1080; 95%CI: 1.025–1.138; and among those 73 years and older at lag 0 RR: 1.075; 95%CI: 1.014–1.140 and lag 3 RR: 1.072; 95%CI: 1.009–1.139. No associations were found with other diseases. Conclusions The study showed an association between emergency hospital visits with HD as primary diagnosis and same day H2S concentrations exceeding 7.00μg/m3, more pronounced among males and those 73 years and older than among females and younger individuals. PMID:27218467

Effects of repeated snowboard exercise in virtual reality with time lags of visual scene behind body rotation on head stability and subjective slalom run performance in healthy young subjects.

PubMed

Wada, Yoshiro; Nishiike, Suetaka; Kitahara, Tadashi; Yamanaka, Toshiaki; Imai, Takao; Ito, Taeko; Sato, Go; Matsuda, Kazunori; Kitamura, Yoshiaki; Takeda, Noriaki

2016-11-01

After repeated snowboard exercises in the virtual reality (VR) world with increasing time lags in trials 3-8, it is suggested that the adaptation to repeated visual-vestibulosomatosensory conflict in the VR world improved dynamic posture control and motor performance in the real world without the development of motion sickness. The VR technology was used and the effects of repeated snowboard exercise examined in the VR world with time lags between visual scene and body rotation on the head stability and slalom run performance during exercise in healthy subjects. Forty-two healthy young subjects participated in the study. After trials 1 and 2 of snowboard exercise in the VR world without time lag, trials 3-8 were conducted with 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 s time lags of the visual scene that the computer creates behind board rotation, respectively. Finally, trial 9 was conducted without time lag. Head linear accelerations and subjective slalom run performance were evaluated. The standard deviations of head linear accelerations in inter-aural direction were significantly increased in trial 8, with a time lag of 0.6 s, but significantly decreased in trial 9 without a time lag, compared with those in trial 2 without a time lag. The subjective scores of slalom run performance were significantly decreased in trial 8, with a time lag of 0.6 s, but significantly increased in trial 9 without a time lag, compared with those in trial 2 without a time lag. Motion sickness was not induced in any subjects.

Modelling of capital asset pricing by considering the lagged effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Bon, A. Talib bin; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

In this paper the problem of modelling the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with the effect of the lagged is discussed. It is assumed that asset returns are analysed influenced by the market return and the return of risk-free assets. To analyse the relationship between asset returns, the market return, and the return of risk-free assets, it is conducted by using a regression equation of CAPM, and regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM. Associated with the regression equation lagged CAPM distributed, this paper also developed a regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM. Results of development show that the regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM has advantages, namely simple as it only requires three parameters, compared with regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM.

The Impacts of Air Temperature on Accidental Casualties in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Ma, Pan; Wang, Shigong; Fan, Xingang; Li, Tanshi

2016-11-02

Emergency room (ER) visits for accidental casualties, according to the International Classification of Deceases 10th Revision Chapters 19 and 20, include injury, poisoning, and external causes (IPEC). Annual distribution of 187,008 ER visits that took place between 2009 and 2011 in Beijing, China displayed regularity rather than random characteristics. The annual cycle from the Fourier series fitting of the number of ER visits was found to explain 63.2% of its total variance. In this study, the possible effect and regulation of meteorological conditions on these ER visits are investigated through the use of correlation analysis, as well as statistical modeling by using the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model and Generalized Additive Model. Correlation analysis indicated that meteorological variables that positively correlated with temperature have a positive relationship with the number of ER visits, and vice versa. The temperature metrics of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures were found to have similar overall impacts, including both the direct impact on human mental/physical conditions and indirect impact on human behavior. The lag analysis indicated that the overall impacts of temperatures higher than the 50th percentile on ER visits occur immediately, whereas low temperatures show protective effects in the first few days. Accidental casualties happen more frequently on warm days when the mean temperature is higher than 14 °C than on cold days. Mean temperatures of around 26 °C result in the greatest possibility of ER visits for accidental casualties. In addition, males were found to face a higher risk of accidental casualties than females at high temperatures. Therefore, the IPEC-classified ER visits are not pure accidents; instead, they are associated closely with meteorological conditions, especially temperature.

Fine Particulate air Pollution is Associated with Higher Vulnerability to Atrial Fibrillation—The APACR Study

PubMed Central

Liao, Duanping; Shaffer, Michele L.; He, Fan; Rodriguez-Colon, Sol; Wu, Rongling; Whitsel, Eric A.; Bixler, Edward O.; Cascio, Wayne E.

2011-01-01

The acute effects and the time course of fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) on atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) predictors, including P-wave duration, PR interval duration, and P-wave complexity, were investigated in a community-dwelling sample of 106 nonsmokers. Individual-level 24-h beat-to-beat electrocardiogram (ECG) data were visually examined. After identifying and removing artifacts and arrhythmic beats, the 30-min averages of the AF predictors were calculated. A personal PM2.5 monitor was used to measure individual-level, real-time PM2.5 exposures during the same 24-h period, and corresponding 30-min average PM2.5 concentration were calculated. Under a linear mixed-effects modeling framework, distributed lag models were used to estimate regression coefficients (βs) associating PM2.5 with AF predictors. Most of the adverse effects on AF predictors occurred within 1.5–2 h after PM2.5 exposure. The multivariable adjusted βs per 10-µg/m3 rise in PM2.5 at lag 1 and lag 2 were significantly associated with P-wave complexity. PM2.5 exposure was also significantly associated with prolonged PR duration at lag 3 and lag 4. Higher PM2.5 was found to be associated with increases in P-wave complexity and PR duration. Maximal effects were observed within 2 h. These findings suggest that PM2.5 adversely affects AF predictors; thus, PM2.5 may be indicative of greater susceptibility to AF. PMID:21480044

Benchmarking a Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System for Agricultural Drought Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hun, Eunjin; Crow, Wade T.; Holmes, Thomas; Bolten, John

2014-01-01

Despite considerable interest in the application of land surface data assimilation systems (LDAS) for agricultural drought applications, relatively little is known about the large-scale performance of such systems and, thus, the optimal methodological approach for implementing them. To address this need, this paper evaluates an LDAS for agricultural drought monitoring by benchmarking individual components of the system (i.e., a satellite soil moisture retrieval algorithm, a soil water balance model and a sequential data assimilation filter) against a series of linear models which perform the same function (i.e., have the same basic inputoutput structure) as the full system component. Benchmarking is based on the calculation of the lagged rank cross-correlation between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil moisture estimates acquired for various components of the system. Lagged soil moistureNDVI correlations obtained using individual LDAS components versus their linear analogs reveal the degree to which non-linearities andor complexities contained within each component actually contribute to the performance of the LDAS system as a whole. Here, a particular system based on surface soil moisture retrievals from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), a two-layer Palmer soil water balance model and an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is benchmarked. Results suggest significant room for improvement in each component of the system.

Stress transfer around a broken fiber in unidirectional fiber-reinforced composites considering matrix damage evolution and interface slipping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhong; Zhang, BoMing; Zhao, Lin; Sun, XinYang

2011-02-01

A shear-lag model is applied to study the stress transfer around a broken fiber within unidirectional fiber-reinforced composites (FRC) subjected to uniaxial tensile loading along the fiber direction. The matrix damage and interfacial debonding, which are the main failure modes, are considered in the model. The maximum stress criterion with the linear damage evolution theory is used for the matrix. The slipping friction stress is considered in the interfacial debonding region using Coulomb friction theory, in which interfacial clamping stress comes from radial residual stress and mismatch of Poisson's ratios of constituents (fiber and matrix). The stress distributions in the fiber and matrix are obtained by the shear-lag theory added with boundary conditions, which includes force continuity and displacement compatibility constraints in the broken and neighboring intact fibers. The result gives axial stress distribution in fibers and shear stress in the interface and compares the theory reasonably well with the measurement by a polarized light microscope. The relation curves between damage, debonding and ineffective region lengths with external strain loading are obtained.

Rapid timing studies of black hole binaries in Optical and X-rays: correlated and non-linear variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gandhi, P.; Dhillon, V. S.; Durant, M.

2010-07-15

In a fast multi-wavelength timing study of black hole X-ray binaries (BHBs), we have discovered correlated optical and X-ray variability in the low/hard state of two sources: GX 339-4 and SWIFT J1753.5-0127. After XTE J1118+480, these are the only BHBs currently known to show rapid (sub-second) aperiodic optical flickering. Our simultaneous VLT/Ultracam and RXTE data reveal intriguing patterns with characteristic peaks, dips and lags down to very short timescales. Simple linear reprocessing models can be ruled out as the origin of the rapid, aperiodic optical power in both sources. A magnetic energy release model with fast interactions between the disk,more » jet and corona can explain the complex correlation patterns. We also show that in both the optical and X-ray light curves, the absolute source variability r.m.s. amplitude linearly increases with flux, and that the flares have a log-normal distribution. The implication is that variability at both wavelengths is not due to local fluctuations alone, but rather arises as a result of coupling of perturbations over a wide range of radii and timescales. These 'optical and X-ray rms-flux relations' thus provide new constraints to connect the outer and inner parts of the accretion flow, and the jet.« less

Assessing the cold temperature effect on hospital visit by allergic rhinitis in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyomi; Kim, Honghyok; Lee, Jong-Tae

2018-08-15

The association between temperature and health outcome has been studied in worldwide. However, studies for mild diseases such as AR, with high prevalence and considerable economic burden, are lacking compared to other relatively severe respiratory diseases. We aimed to assess the trend of hospital visit by AR and estimate the cold temperature effect on hospital visit by allergic rhinitis in Seoul, Korea, 2003-2011. We fitted generalized additive model with quasi-poisson distribution, controlling for humidity, long-term trend, day of week, national holiday, and influenza epidemic. We estimated the cumulative cold temperature effect (10%, -1.7°C) referent to 7.9°C for the considered lag periods using distributed lag non-linear model: vary from the day of hospital visit to 10days before. Stratified analysis by season was also conducted. To adjust for possible confounding effect of air pollutants, we additionally adjusted for PM 10 , O 3 and NO 2 respectively. Hospital visit counts and rates per 1,000,000 show increasing trend especially in elderly population (over 65years). Hospital visit rate is higher in children population (age<13years). Statistically significant cold temperature effects were found in the total (1.094(95%CI: 1.037, 1.153)), male (1.100 (95%CI: 1.010, 1.163)), female (1.088 (95%CI: 1.059, 1.170)) and adult (1.113 (95%CI: 1.059, 1.170)) population with consideration of 3-day lag period. In the stratified analysis by the season, the strongest effect was shown in the autumn (Sep-Nov) season. Confounding effects by air pollutants were not found. In this study, we found significant increasing trend of hospital visit by AR. This study provides suggestive evidence of cold temperature effect on hospital visit by AR. To reduce the growing burden of AR, it is important to find possible related environmental risk factors. More studies should be conducted for better understanding of temperature effect on AR. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Correlation between the change in the kinetics of the ribosomal RNA rrnB P2 promoter and the transition from lag to exponential phase with Pseudomonas fluorescens.

PubMed

McKellar, Robin C

2008-01-15

Developing accurate mathematical models to describe the pre-exponential lag phase in food-borne pathogens presents a considerable challenge to food microbiologists. While the growth rate is influenced by current environmental conditions, the lag phase is affected in addition by the history of the inoculum. A deeper understanding of physiological changes taking place during the lag phase would improve accuracy of models, and in earlier studies a strain of Pseudomonas fluorescens containing the Tn7-luxCDABE gene cassette regulated by the rRNA promoter rrnB P2 was used to measure the influence of starvation, growth temperature and sub-lethal heating on promoter expression and subsequent growth. The present study expands the models developed earlier to include a model which describes the change from exponential to linear increase in promoter expression with time when the exponential phase of growth commences. A two-phase linear model with Poisson weighting was used to estimate the lag (LPDLin) and the rate (RLin) for this linear increase in bioluminescence. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient (r=0.830) between the LPDLin and the growth lag phase (LPDOD) was extremely significant (P

Using nonlinear forecasting to learn the magnitude and phasing of time-varying sediment suspension in the surf zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, B.E.; Rubin, D.M.

1996-01-01

The time-dependent response of sediment suspension to flow velocity was explored by modeling field measurements collected in the surf zone during a large storm. Linear and nonlinear models were created and tested using flow velocity as input and suspended-sediment concentration as output. A sequence of past velocities (velocity history), as well as velocity from the same instant as the suspended-sediment concentration, was used as input; this velocity history length was allowed to vary. The models also allowed for a lag between input (instantaneous velocity or end of velocity sequence) and output (suspended-sediment concentration). Predictions of concentration from instantaneous velocity or instantaneous velocity raised to a power (up to 8) using linear models were poor (correlation coefficients between predicted and observed concentrations were less than 0.10). Allowing a lag between velocity and concentration improved linear models (correlation coefficient of 0.30), with optimum lag time increasing with elevation above the seabed (from 1.5 s at 13 cm to 8.5 s at 60 cm). These lags are largely due to the time for an observed flow event to effect the bed and mix sediment upward. Using a velocity history further improved linear models (correlation coefficient of 0.43). The best linear model used 12.5 s of velocity history (approximately one wave period) to predict concentration. Nonlinear models gave better predictions than linear models, and, as with linear models, nonlinear models using a velocity history performed better than models using only instantaneous velocity as input. Including a lag time between the velocity and concentration also improved the predictions. The best model (correlation coefficient of 0.58) used 3 s (approximately a quarter wave period) of the cross-shore velocity squared, starting at 4.5 s before the observed concentration, to predict concentration. Using a velocity history increases the performance of the models by specifying a more complete description of the dynamical forcing of the flow (including accelerations and wave phase and shape) responsible for sediment suspension. Incorporating such a velocity history and a lag time into the formulation of the forcing for time-dependent models for sediment suspension in the surf zone will greatly increase our ability to predict suspended-sediment transport.

Development of non-linear models predicting daily fine particle concentrations using aerosol optical depth retrievals and ground-based measurements at a municipality in the Brazilian Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, Karen dos Santos; Winkler, Mirko S.; Benchimol-Barbosa, Paulo Roberto; de Hoogh, Kees; Artaxo, Paulo Eduardo; de Souza Hacon, Sandra; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino

2018-07-01

Epidemiological studies generally use particulate matter measurements with diameter less 2.5 μm (PM2.5) from monitoring networks. Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data has considerable potential in predicting PM2.5 concentrations, and thus provides an alternative method for producing knowledge regarding the level of pollution and its health impact in areas where no ground PM2.5 measurements are available. This is the case in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest region where forest fires are frequent sources of high pollution. In this study, we applied a non-linear model for predicting PM2.5 concentration from AOD retrievals using interaction terms between average temperature, relative humidity, sine, cosine of date in a period of 365,25 days and the square of the lagged relative residual. Regression performance statistics were tested comparing the goodness of fit and R2 based on results from linear regression and non-linear regression for six different models. The regression results for non-linear prediction showed the best performance, explaining on average 82% of the daily PM2.5 concentrations when considering the whole period studied. In the context of Amazonia, it was the first study predicting PM2.5 concentrations using the latest high-resolution AOD products also in combination with the testing of a non-linear model performance. Our results permitted a reliable prediction considering the AOD-PM2.5 relationship and set the basis for further investigations on air pollution impacts in the complex context of Brazilian Amazon Region.

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality among elderly persons in Montreal, Quebec.

PubMed

Goldberg, Mark S; Burnett, Richard T; Stieb, David M; Brophy, James M; Daskalopoulou, Stella S; Valois, Marie-France; Brook, Jeffrey R

2013-10-01

Persons with underlying health conditions may be at higher risk for the short-term effects of air pollution. We have extended our original mortality time series study in Montreal, Quebec, among persons 65 years of age and older, for an additional 10 years (1990-2003) to assess whether these associations persisted and to investigate new health conditions. We created subgroups of subjects diagnosed with major health conditions one year before death using billing and prescription data from the Quebec Health Insurance Plan. We used parametric log-linear Poisson models within the distributed lag non-linear models framework, that were adjusted for long-term temporal trends and daily maximum temperature, for which we assessed associations with NO2, O3, CO, SO2, and particles with aerodynamic diameters 2.5 μm in diameter or less (PM2.5). We found positive associations between daily non-accidental mortality and all air pollutants but O3 (e.g., for a cumulative effect over a 3-day lag, with a mean percent change (MPC) in daily mortality of 1.90% [95% confidence interval: 0.73, 3.08%] for an increase of the interquartile range (17.56 μg m(-3)) of NO2). Positive associations were found amongst persons having cardiovascular disease (cumulative MPC for an increase equal to the interquartile range of NO2=2.67%), congestive heart failure (MPC=3.46%), atrial fibrillation (MPC=4.21%), diabetes (MPC=3.45%), and diabetes and cardiovascular disease (MPC=3.50%). Associations in the warm season were also found for acute and chronic coronary artery disease, hypertension, and cancer. There was no persuasive evidence to conclude that there were seasonal associations for cerebrovascular disease, acute lower respiratory disease (defined within 2 months of death), airways disease, and diabetes and airways disease. These data indicate that individuals with certain health conditions, especially those with diabetes and cardiovascular disease, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and cancer, may be susceptible to the short-term effects of air pollution. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

H7N9 not only endanger human health but also hit stock marketing.

PubMed

Jiang, Yan; Zhang, Yi; Ma, Chunna; Wang, Quanyi; Xu, Chao; Donovan, Connor; Ali, Gholam; Xu, Tan; Sun, Wenjie

2017-01-01

This study aims to discuss the correlation between daily reported H7N9 cases and stock price indices in China. Information on daily reported H7N9 cases and stock market sectors indices between February 19, 2013 and March 31, 2014 were collected. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to describe the variation trend for the stock indices. The daily reported number of H7N9 cases was associated with the closing price of the Avian Influenza Sector Index (P < 0.05) and the opening price of the Shanghai Composite Index (P = 0.029). The Avian Influenza Sector Index decreased with increasing of daily reported case number when daily reported cases ≤ 4. Case number was associated with the opening/closing price of the Chinese Traditional Medicine Sector Index, the Biological Product Sector Index, and the Biomedicine Sector Index (P < 0.05). New or reemerging infectious diseases epidemic cause economic loss which is reflected in movements in stock prices.

Computer program for post-flight evaluation of the control surface response for an attitude controlled missile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knauber, R. N.

1982-01-01

A FORTRAN IV coded computer program is presented for post-flight analysis of a missile's control surface response. It includes preprocessing of digitized telemetry data for time lags, biases, non-linear calibration changes and filtering. Measurements include autopilot attitude rate and displacement gyro output and four control surface deflections. Simple first order lags are assumed for the pitch, yaw and roll axes of control. Each actuator is also assumed to be represented by a first order lag. Mixing of pitch, yaw and roll commands to four control surfaces is assumed. A pseudo-inverse technique is used to obtain the pitch, yaw and roll components from the four measured deflections. This program has been used for over 10 years on the NASA/SCOUT launch vehicle for post-flight analysis and was helpful in detecting incipient actuator stall due to excessive hinge moments. The program is currently set up for a CDC CYBER 175 computer system. It requires 34K words of memory and contains 675 cards. A sample problem presented herein including the optional plotting requires eleven (11) seconds of central processor time.

A climate-based prediction model in the high-risk clusters of the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam: towards improving dengue prevention and control.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Talukder, Mohammad Radwanur Rahman; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

2016-10-01

To develop a prediction score scheme useful for prevention practitioners and authorities to implement dengue preparedness and controls in the Mekong Delta region (MDR). We applied a spatial scan statistic to identify high-risk dengue clusters in the MDR and used generalised linear-distributed lag models to examine climate-dengue associations using dengue case records and meteorological data from 2003 to 2013. The significant predictors were collapsed into categorical scales, and the β-coefficients of predictors were converted to prediction scores. The score scheme was validated for predicting dengue outbreaks using ROC analysis. The north-eastern MDR was identified as the high-risk cluster. A 1 °C increase in temperature at lag 1-4 and 5-8 weeks increased the dengue risk 11% (95% CI, 9-13) and 7% (95% CI, 6-8), respectively. A 1% rise in humidity increased dengue risk 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2-1.4) at lag 1-4 and 0.8% (95% CI, 0.2-1.4) at lag 5-8 weeks. Similarly, a 1-mm increase in rainfall increased dengue risk 0.1% (95% CI, 0.05-0.16) at lag 1-4 and 0.11% (95% CI, 0.07-0.16) at lag 5-8 weeks. The predicted scores performed with high accuracy in diagnosing the dengue outbreaks (96.3%). This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a dengue prediction score scheme derived from complex statistical models for high-risk dengue clusters. We recommend a further study to examine the possibility of incorporating such a score scheme into the dengue early warning system in similar climate settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Helicopter vibration suppression using simple pendulum absorbers on the rotor blade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamouda, M.-N. H.; Pierce, G. A.

1981-01-01

A design procedure is presented for the installation of simple pendulums on the blades of a helicopter rotor to suppress the root reactions. The procedure consists of a frequency response analysis for a hingeless rotor blade excited by a harmonic variation of spanwise airload distributions during forward flight, as well as a concentrated load at the tip. The structural modeling of the blade provides for elastic degrees of freedom in flap and lead-lag bending plus torsion. Simple flap and lead-lag pendulums are considered individually. Using a rational order scheme, the general nonlinear equations of motion are linearized. A quasi-steady aerodynamic representation is used in the formation of the airloads. The solution of the system equations derives from their representation as a transfer matrix. The results include the effect of pendulum tuning on the minimization of the hub reactions.

Microbial detection method based on sensing molecular hydrogen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkins, J. R.; Stoner, G. E.; Boykin, E. H.

1974-01-01

A simple method for detecting bacteria, based on the time of hydrogen evolution, was developed and tested against various members of the Enterobacteriaceae group. The test system consisted of (1) two electrodes, platinum and a reference electrode, (2) a buffer amplifier, and (3) a strip-chart recorder. Hydrogen evolution was measured by an increase in voltage in the negative (cathodic) direction. A linear relationship was established between inoculum size and the time hydrogen was detected (lag period). Lag times ranged from 1 h for 1 million cells/ml to 7 h for 1 cell/ml. For each 10-fold decrease in inoculum, length of the lag period increased 60 to 70 min. Based on the linear relationship between inoculum and lag period, these results indicate the potential application of the hydrogen-sensing method for rapidly detecting coliforms and other gas-producing microorganisms in a variety of clinical, food, and other samples.

Kinetics of Bacteriophage λ Deoxyribonucleic Acid Infection of Escherichia coli

PubMed Central

Barnhart, Benjamin J.

1965-01-01

Barnhart, Benjamin J. (Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, University of California, Los Alamos, N.M.). Kinetics of bacteriophage λ deoxyribonucleic acid infection of Escherichia coli. J. Bacteriol. 90:1617–1623. 1965.—The kinetics of Escherichia coli K-12 infection by phage λ deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) were determined. An initial lag of 55 to 80 sec was found to be the time required for infecting DNA to become deoxyribonuclease-insensitive at 33 C. When cell-DNA interactions were stopped by washing away unbound DNA, the already bound DNA continued to infect the cell at rates described by linear kinetics with no apparent lag. Whereas the lag period was relatively insensitive to DNA and cell concentrations, both the lag and the subsequent linear portions of the rate curves were temperature-sensitive. Cell and DNA dose-response curves prescribed hyperbolic functions. Similarities between λ DNA infection of E. coli and bacterial transformation systems are discussed. PMID:5322721

Projective-anticipating, projective, and projective-lag synchronization of time-delayed chaotic systems on random networks.

PubMed

Feng, Cun-Fang; Xu, Xin-Jian; Wang, Sheng-Jun; Wang, Ying-Hai

2008-06-01

We study projective-anticipating, projective, and projective-lag synchronization of time-delayed chaotic systems on random networks. We relax some limitations of previous work, where projective-anticipating and projective-lag synchronization can be achieved only on two coupled chaotic systems. In this paper, we realize projective-anticipating and projective-lag synchronization on complex dynamical networks composed of a large number of interconnected components. At the same time, although previous work studied projective synchronization on complex dynamical networks, the dynamics of the nodes are coupled partially linear chaotic systems. In this paper, the dynamics of the nodes of the complex networks are time-delayed chaotic systems without the limitation of the partial linearity. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, we suggest a generic method to achieve the projective-anticipating, projective, and projective-lag synchronization of time-delayed chaotic systems on random dynamical networks, and we find both its existence and sufficient stability conditions. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated and verified by examining specific examples using Ikeda and Mackey-Glass systems on Erdos-Renyi networks.

Mortality related to cold and heat. What do we learn from dairy cattle?

PubMed Central

Cox, Bianca; Gasparrini, Antonio; Catry, Boudewijn; Delcloo, Andy; Bijnens, Esmée; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Nawrot, Tim S.

2016-01-01

Extreme temperatures are associated with increased mortality among humans. Because similar epidemiologic studies in animals may add to the existing evidence, we investigated the association between ambient temperature and the risk of mortality among dairy cattle. We used data on 87,108 dairy cow deaths in Belgium from 2006 to 2009, and we combined a case-crossover design with distributed lag non-linear models. Province-specific results were combined in a multivariate meta-analysis. Relative to the estimated minimum mortality temperature of 15.4 °C (75th percentile), the pooled cumulative relative risks over lag 0–25 days were 1.26 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.42) for extreme cold (1st percentile, −3.5 °C), 1.35 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.54) for moderate cold (5th percentile, −0.3 °C), 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17) for moderate heat (95th percentile, 19.7 °C), and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.08; 1.48) for extreme heat (99th percentile, 22.6 °C). The temporal pattern of the temperature-mortality association was similar to that observed in humans, i.e. acute effects of heat and delayed and prolonged effects of cold. Seasonal analyses suggested that most of the temperature-related mortality, including cold effects, occurred in the warm season. Our study reinforces the evidence on the plausibility of causal effects in humans. PMID:27236362

The burden of COPD mortality due to ambient air pollution in Guangzhou, China

PubMed Central

Li, Li; Yang, Jun; Song, Yun-Feng; Chen, Ping-Yan; Ou, Chun-Quan

2016-01-01

Few studies have investigated the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality fraction attributable to air pollution and modification by individual characteristics of air pollution effects. We applied distributed lag non-linear models to assess the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality in 2007–2011 in Guangzhou, China, and the total COPD mortality fraction attributable to air pollution was calculated as well. We found that an increase of 10 μg/m3 in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was associated with a 1.58% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12–3.06%), 3.45% (95% CI: 1.30–5.66%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.42–4.32%) increase of COPD mortality over a lag of 0–15 days, respectively. Greater air pollution effects were observed in the elderly, males and residents with low educational attainment. The results showed 10.91% (95% CI: 1.02–9.58%), 12.71% (95% CI: 5.03–19.85%) and 13.38% (95% CI: 2.67–22.84%) COPD mortality was attributable to current PM10, SO2 and NO2 exposure, respectively. In conclusion, the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality differed by individual characteristics. There were remarkable COPD mortality burdens attributable to air pollution in Guangzhou. PMID:27195597

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antunes, Liliana; Silva, Susana Pereira; Marques, Jorge; Nunes, Baltazar; Antunes, Sílvia

2017-01-01

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1-2-day delay, reaching maximum increased risk of death after 6-7 days and lasting up to 20-28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

On statistical properties of traded volume in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Souza, J.; Moyano, L. G.; Duarte Queirós, S. M.

2006-03-01

In this article we study the dependence degree of the traded volume of the Dow Jones 30 constituent equities by using a nonextensive generalised form of the Kullback-Leibler information measure. Our results show a slow decay of the dependence degree as a function of the lag. This feature is compatible with the existence of non-linearities in this type time series. In addition, we introduce a dynamical mechanism whose associated stationary probability density function (PDF) presents a good agreement with the empirical results.

Assessing the dream-lag effect for REM and NREM stage 2 dreams.

PubMed

Blagrove, Mark; Fouquet, Nathalie C; Henley-Einion, Josephine A; Pace-Schott, Edward F; Davies, Anna C; Neuschaffer, Jennifer L; Turnbull, Oliver H

2011-01-01

This study investigates evidence, from dream reports, for memory consolidation during sleep. It is well-known that events and memories from waking life can be incorporated into dreams. These incorporations can be a literal replication of what occurred in waking life, or, more often, they can be partial or indirect. Two types of temporal relationship have been found to characterize the time of occurrence of a daytime event and the reappearance or incorporation of its features in a dream. These temporal relationships are referred to as the day-residue or immediate incorporation effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring on the immediately preceding day, and the dream-lag effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring 5-7 days prior to the dream. Previous work on the dream-lag effect has used spontaneous home recalled dream reports, which can be from Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (REM) and from non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (NREM). This study addresses whether the dream-lag effect occurs only for REM sleep dreams, or for both REM and NREM stage 2 (N2) dreams. 20 participants kept a daily diary for over a week before sleeping in the sleep laboratory for 2 nights. REM and N2 dreams collected in the laboratory were transcribed and each participant rated the level of correspondence between every dream report and every diary record. The dream-lag effect was found for REM but not N2 dreams. Further analysis indicated that this result was not due to N2 dream reports being shorter, in terms of number of words, than the REM dream reports. These results provide evidence for a 7-day sleep-dependent non-linear memory consolidation process that is specific to REM sleep, and accord with proposals for the importance of REM sleep to emotional memory consolidation.

Assessing the Dream-Lag Effect for REM and NREM Stage 2 Dreams

PubMed Central

Blagrove, Mark; Fouquet, Nathalie C.; Henley-Einion, Josephine A.; Pace-Schott, Edward F.; Davies, Anna C.; Neuschaffer, Jennifer L.; Turnbull, Oliver H.

2011-01-01

This study investigates evidence, from dream reports, for memory consolidation during sleep. It is well-known that events and memories from waking life can be incorporated into dreams. These incorporations can be a literal replication of what occurred in waking life, or, more often, they can be partial or indirect. Two types of temporal relationship have been found to characterize the time of occurrence of a daytime event and the reappearance or incorporation of its features in a dream. These temporal relationships are referred to as the day-residue or immediate incorporation effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring on the immediately preceding day, and the dream-lag effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring 5–7 days prior to the dream. Previous work on the dream-lag effect has used spontaneous home recalled dream reports, which can be from Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (REM) and from non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (NREM). This study addresses whether the dream-lag effect occurs only for REM sleep dreams, or for both REM and NREM stage 2 (N2) dreams. 20 participants kept a daily diary for over a week before sleeping in the sleep laboratory for 2 nights. REM and N2 dreams collected in the laboratory were transcribed and each participant rated the level of correspondence between every dream report and every diary record. The dream-lag effect was found for REM but not N2 dreams. Further analysis indicated that this result was not due to N2 dream reports being shorter, in terms of number of words, than the REM dream reports. These results provide evidence for a 7-day sleep-dependent non-linear memory consolidation process that is specific to REM sleep, and accord with proposals for the importance of REM sleep to emotional memory consolidation. PMID:22046336

A Non-linear Geodetic Data Inversion Using ABIC for Slip Distribution on a Fault With an Unknown dip Angle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukahata, Y.; Wright, T. J.

2006-12-01

We developed a method of geodetic data inversion for slip distribution on a fault with an unknown dip angle. When fault geometry is unknown, the problem of geodetic data inversion is non-linear. A common strategy for obtaining slip distribution is to first determine the fault geometry by minimizing the square misfit under the assumption of a uniform slip on a rectangular fault, and then apply the usual linear inversion technique to estimate a slip distribution on the determined fault. It is not guaranteed, however, that the fault determined under the assumption of a uniform slip gives the best fault geometry for a spatially variable slip distribution. In addition, in obtaining a uniform slip fault model, we have to simultaneously determine the values of the nine mutually dependent parameters, which is a highly non-linear, complicated process. Although the inverse problem is non-linear for cases with unknown fault geometries, the non-linearity of the problems is actually weak, when we can assume the fault surface to be flat. In particular, when a clear fault trace is observed on the EarthOs surface after an earthquake, we can precisely estimate the strike and the location of the fault. In this case only the dip angle has large ambiguity. In geodetic data inversion we usually need to introduce smoothness constraints in order to compromise reciprocal requirements for model resolution and estimation errors in a natural way. Strictly speaking, the inverse problem with smoothness constraints is also non-linear, even if the fault geometry is known. The non-linearity has been dissolved by introducing AkaikeOs Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC), with which the optimal value of the relative weight of observed data to smoothness constraints is objectively determined. In this study, using ABIC in determining the optimal dip angle, we dissolved the non-linearity of the inverse problem. We applied the method to the InSAR data of the 1995 Dinar, Turkey earthquake and obtained a much shallower dip angle than before.

Information theoretical approach to discovering solar wind drivers of the outer radiation belt

DOE PAGES

Wing, Simon; Johnson, Jay R.; Camporeale, Enrico; ...

2016-07-29

The solar wind-magnetosphere system is nonlinear. The solar wind drivers of geosynchronous electrons with energy range of 1.8–3.5 MeV are investigated using mutual information, conditional mutual information (CMI), and transfer entropy (TE). These information theoretical tools can establish linear and nonlinear relationships as well as information transfer. The information transfer from solar wind velocity ( Vsw) to geosynchronous MeV electron flux ( Je) peaks with a lag time of 2 days. As previously reported, Je is anticorrelated with solar wind density ( nsw) with a lag of 1 day. However, this lag time and anticorrelation can be attributed at leastmore » partly to the Je( t + 2 days) correlation with Vsw( t) and nsw( t + 1 day) anticorrelation with Vsw( t). Analyses of solar wind driving of the magnetosphere need to consider the large lag times, up to 3 days, in the ( Vsw, nsw) anticorrelation. Using CMI to remove the effects of Vsw, the response of Je to nsw is 30% smaller and has a lag time < 24 h, suggesting that the MeV electron loss mechanism due to nsw or solar wind dynamic pressure has to start operating in < 24 h. nsw transfers about 36% as much information as Vsw (the primary driver) to Je. Nonstationarity in the system dynamics is investigated using windowed TE. Here, when the data are ordered according to transfer entropy value, it is possible to understand details of the triangle distribution that has been identified between Je( t + 2 days) versus Vsw( t).« less

Information theoretical approach to discovering solar wind drivers of the outer radiation belt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wing, Simon; Johnson, Jay R.; Camporeale, Enrico

The solar wind-magnetosphere system is nonlinear. The solar wind drivers of geosynchronous electrons with energy range of 1.8–3.5 MeV are investigated using mutual information, conditional mutual information (CMI), and transfer entropy (TE). These information theoretical tools can establish linear and nonlinear relationships as well as information transfer. The information transfer from solar wind velocity ( Vsw) to geosynchronous MeV electron flux ( Je) peaks with a lag time of 2 days. As previously reported, Je is anticorrelated with solar wind density ( nsw) with a lag of 1 day. However, this lag time and anticorrelation can be attributed at leastmore » partly to the Je( t + 2 days) correlation with Vsw( t) and nsw( t + 1 day) anticorrelation with Vsw( t). Analyses of solar wind driving of the magnetosphere need to consider the large lag times, up to 3 days, in the ( Vsw, nsw) anticorrelation. Using CMI to remove the effects of Vsw, the response of Je to nsw is 30% smaller and has a lag time < 24 h, suggesting that the MeV electron loss mechanism due to nsw or solar wind dynamic pressure has to start operating in < 24 h. nsw transfers about 36% as much information as Vsw (the primary driver) to Je. Nonstationarity in the system dynamics is investigated using windowed TE. Here, when the data are ordered according to transfer entropy value, it is possible to understand details of the triangle distribution that has been identified between Je( t + 2 days) versus Vsw( t).« less

Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Z J; Zhang, X J; Hou, X X; Xu, S; Zhang, J S; Song, H B; Lin, H L

2015-12-01

Previous studies examining the weather-bacillary dysentery association were of a large time scale (monthly or weekly) and examined the linear relationship without checking the linearity assumption. We examined this association in Beijing at a daily scale based on the exposure-response curves using generalized additive models. Our analyses suggested that there were thresholds for effects of temperature and relative humidity, with an approximately linear effect for temperature >12·5 °C [excess risk (ER) for 1 °C increase: 1·06%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·63-1·49 on lag day 3] and for relative humidity >40% (ER for 1% increase: 0·18%, 95% CI 0·12-0·24 at lag day 4); and there were linear effects of rainfall (ER for 1-mm increase: 0·22%, 95% CI 0·12-0·32), negative effects for wind speed (ER: -2·91%, 95% CI -4·28 to -1·52 at lag day 3) and sunshine duration (ER: -0·25% 95% CI -0·43 to -0·07 at lag day 4). This study suggests that there are thresholds for the effects of temperature and relative humidity on bacillary dysentery, and these findings should be considered in its prevention and control programmes.

Daily temperature change in relation to the risk of childhood bacillary dysentery among different age groups and sexes in a temperate city in China.

PubMed

Li, K; Zhao, K; Shi, L; Wen, L; Yang, H; Cheng, J; Wang, X; Su, H

2016-02-01

In recent years, many studies have found that ambient temperature is significantly associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, there is limited evidence on the relationship between temperature and childhood BD in temperate areas. To investigate the relationship between daily mean temperature (MT) and childhood BD in China. Data on daily MT and childhood BD between 2006 and 2012 were collected from the Bureau of Meteorology and the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Hefei, Anhui Province, China. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyse the effects of temperature on childhood BD across different age and sex subgroups. An increase in temperature was significantly associated with childhood BD, and each 1 °C increase corresponded to an increase of 1.58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-2.71%] in the number of cases of BD. Children aged 0-5 years and girls were particularly sensitive to the effects of temperature. High temperatures may increase the risk of childhood BD in Hefei. Children aged 0-5 years and girls appear to be particularly sensitive to the effects of high temperature. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative EEG analysis using error reduction ratio-causality test; validation on simulated and real EEG data.

PubMed

Sarrigiannis, Ptolemaios G; Zhao, Yifan; Wei, Hua-Liang; Billings, Stephen A; Fotheringham, Jayne; Hadjivassiliou, Marios

2014-01-01

To introduce a new method of quantitative EEG analysis in the time domain, the error reduction ratio (ERR)-causality test. To compare performance against cross-correlation and coherence with phase measures. A simulation example was used as a gold standard to assess the performance of ERR-causality, against cross-correlation and coherence. The methods were then applied to real EEG data. Analysis of both simulated and real EEG data demonstrates that ERR-causality successfully detects dynamically evolving changes between two signals, with very high time resolution, dependent on the sampling rate of the data. Our method can properly detect both linear and non-linear effects, encountered during analysis of focal and generalised seizures. We introduce a new quantitative EEG method of analysis. It detects real time levels of synchronisation in the linear and non-linear domains. It computes directionality of information flow with corresponding time lags. This novel dynamic real time EEG signal analysis unveils hidden neural network interactions with a very high time resolution. These interactions cannot be adequately resolved by the traditional methods of coherence and cross-correlation, which provide limited results in the presence of non-linear effects and lack fidelity for changes appearing over small periods of time. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the association between resistance and outpatient antibiotic use expressed as DDDs or packages.

PubMed

Bruyndonckx, Robin; Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Goossens, Herman; Cortiñas Abrahantes, José; Coenen, Samuel

2015-04-01

The objective of this study was to explore the association between resistance and outpatient antibiotic use, expressed as either DDDs per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID) or packages per 1000 inhabitants per day (PID). IMS Health data on outpatient penicillin and cephalosporin (β-lactam) and tetracycline, macrolide, lincosamide and streptogramin (TMLS) use, aggregated at the level of the active substance (WHO version 2011) expressed as DID and PID (2000-07) were linked to European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System (EARSS) data on proportions of penicillin-non-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae (PNSP) and erythromycin-non-susceptible S. pneumoniae (ENSP) (2000-09). Combined data for 27 European countries were analysed with a generalized linear mixed model. Model fit for use in DID, PID or both and 0, 1 or 2 year time lags between use and resistance was assessed and predictions of resistance were made for decreasing use expressed as DID, PID or both. When exploring the association between β-lactam use and PNSP, the best model fit was obtained for use in PID without time lag. For the association between TMLS use and ENSP, the best model fit was obtained for use in both PID and DID with a 1 year time lag. PNSP and ENSP are predicted to decrease when use decreases in PID, but not when use decreases in DID. Associations between outpatient antibiotic use and resistance and predictions of resistance were inconsistent whether expressing antibiotic use as DID or PID. We recommend that data on antibiotic use be expressed as PID and that time lags between use and resistance be considered when exploring these associations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The burden of ambient air pollution on years of life lost in Wuxi, China, 2012-2015: A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model.

PubMed

Zhu, Jingying; Zhang, Xuhui; Zhang, Xi; Dong, Mei; Wu, Jiamei; Dong, Yunqiu; Chen, Rong; Ding, Xinliang; Huang, Chunhua; Zhang, Qi; Zhou, Weijie

2017-05-01

Ambient air pollution ranks high among the risk factors that increase the global burden of disease. Previous studies focused on assessing mortality risk and were sparsely performed in populous developing countries with deteriorating environments. We conducted a time-series study to evaluate the air pollution-associated years of life lost (YLL) and mortality risk and to identify potential modifiers relating to the season and demographic characteristics. Using linear (for YLL) and Poisson (for mortality) regression models and controlling for time-varying factors, we found that an interquartile range (IQR) increase in a three-day average cumulative (lag 0-2 day) concentrations of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 and SO 2  corresponded to increases in YLL of 12.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.98-21.20), 13.69 (95% CI: 3.32-24.07), 26.95 (95% CI: 13.99-39.91) and 24.39 (95% CI: 8.62-40.15) years, respectively, and to percent increases in mortality of 1.34% (95% CI: 0.67-2.01%), 1.56% (95% CI: 0.80-2.33%), 3.36% (95% CI: 2.39-4.33%) and 2.39% (95% CI: 1.24-3.55%), respectively. Among the specific causes of death, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were positively associated with gaseous pollutants (NO 2 and SO 2 ), and diabetes was positively correlated with NO 2 (in terms of the mortality risk). The effects of air pollutants were more pronounced in the cool season than in the warm season. The elderly (>65 years) and females were more vulnerable to air pollution. Studying effect estimates and their modifications by using YLL to detect premature death should support implementing health risk assessments, identifying susceptible groups and guiding policy-making and resource allocation according to specific local conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors relating to windblown dust in associations between ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Introduction: In effect estimates of city-specific PM2.5-mortality associations across United States (US), there exists a substantial amount of spatial heterogeneity. Some of this heterogeneity may be due to mass distribution of PM; areas where PM2.5 is likely to be dominated by large size fractions (above 1 micron; e.g., the contribution of windblown dust), may have a weaker association with mortality. Methods: Log rate ratios (betas) for the PM2.5-mortality association—derived from a model adjusting for time, an interaction with age-group, day of week, and natural splines of current temperature, current dew point, and unconstrained temperature at lags 1, 2, and 3, for 313 core-based statistical areas (CBSA) and their metropolitan divisions (MD) over 1999-2005—were used as the outcome. Using inverse variance weighted linear regression, we examined change in log rate ratios in association with PM10-PM2.5 correlation as a marker of windblown dust/higher PM size fraction; linearity of associations was assessed in models using splines with knots at quintile values. Results: Weighted mean PM2.5 association (0.96 percent increase in total non-accidental mortality for a 10 ug/m3 increment in PM2.5) increased by 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.20, 0.48) per interquartile change (0.25) in the PM10-PM2.5 correlation, and explained approximately 8% of the observed heterogeneity; the association was linear based on spline analysis. Conclusions: Preliminary results pro

Nanoflare vs Footpoint Heating : Observational Signatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winebarger, Amy; Alexander, Caroline; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Downs, Cooper

2015-01-01

Time lag analysis shows very long time lags between all channel pairs. Impulsive heating cannot address these long time lags. 3D Simulations of footpoint heating shows a similar pattern of time lags (magnitude and distribution) to observations. Time lags and relative peak intensities may be able to differentiate between TNE and impulsive heating solutions. Adding a high temperature channel (like XRT Be-­thin) may improve diagnostics.

Relationships between cold-temperature indices and all causes and cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality in a subtropical island.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Kai; Wang, Yu-Chun; Lin, Pay-Liam; Li, Ming-Hsu; Ho, Tsung-Jung

2013-09-01

This study aimed to identify optimal cold-temperature indices that are associated with the elevated risks of mortality from, and outpatient visits for all causes and cardiopulmonary diseases during the cold seasons (November to April) from 2000 to 2008 in Northern, Central and Southern Taiwan. Eight cold-temperature indices, average, maximum, and minimum temperatures, and the temperature humidity index, wind chill index, apparent temperature, effective temperature (ET), and net effective temperature and their standardized Z scores were applied to distributed lag non-linear models. Index-specific cumulative 26-day (lag 0-25) mortality risk, cumulative 8-day (lag 0-7) outpatient visit risk, and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated at 1 and 2 standardized deviations below the median temperature, comparing with the Z score of the lowest risks for mortality and outpatient visits. The average temperature was adequate to evaluate the mortality risk from all causes and circulatory diseases. Excess all-cause mortality increased for 17-24% when average temperature was at Z=-1, and for 27-41% at Z=-2 among study areas. The cold-temperature indices were inconsistent in estimating risk of outpatient visits. Average temperature and THI were appropriate indices for measuring risk for all-cause outpatient visits. Relative risk of all-cause outpatient visits increased slightly by 2-7% when average temperature was at Z=-1, but no significant risk at Z=-2. Minimum temperature estimated the strongest risk associated with outpatient visits of respiratory diseases. In conclusion, the relationships between cold temperatures and health varied among study areas, types of health event, and the cold-temperature indices applied. Mortality from all causes and circulatory diseases and outpatient visits of respiratory diseases has a strong association with cold temperatures in the subtropical island, Taiwan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Precipitation Effects on Microbial Pollution in a River: Lag Structures and Seasonal Effect Modification

PubMed Central

Tornevi, Andreas; Bergstedt, Olof; Forsberg, Bertil

2014-01-01

Background The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for 0.7 million swedes. The river is subject to contamination from sewer systems discharge and runoff from agricultural lands. Climate models projects an increase in precipitation and heavy rainfall in this region. This study aimed to determine how daily rainfall causes variation in indicators of pathogen loads, to increase knowledge of variations in river water quality and discuss implications for risk management. Methods Data covering 7 years of daily monitoring of river water turbidity and concentrations of E. coli, Clostridium and coliforms were obtained, and their short-term variations in relation with precipitation were analyzed with time series regression and non-linear distributed lag models. We studied how precipitation effects varied with season and compared different weather stations for predictive ability. Results Generally, the lowest raw water quality occurs 2 days after rainfall, with poor raw water quality continuing for several more days. A rainfall event of >15 mm/24-h (local 95 percentile) was associated with a three-fold higher concentration of E. coli and 30% higher turbidity levels (lag 2). Rainfall was associated with exponential increases in concentrations of indicator bacteria while the effect on turbidity attenuated with very heavy rainfall. Clear associations were also observed between consecutive days of wet weather and decreased water quality. The precipitation effect on increased levels of indicator bacteria was significant in all seasons. Conclusions Rainfall elevates microbial risks year-round in this river and freshwater source and acts as the main driver of varying water quality. Heavy rainfall appears to be a better predictor of fecal pollution than water turbidity. An increase of wet weather and extreme events with climate change will lower river water quality even more, indicating greater challenges for drinking water producers, and suggesting better control of sources of pollution. PMID:24874010

New evidence and impact of electron transport non-linearities based on new perturbative inter-modulation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Berkel, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Igami, H.; Vandersteen, G.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Tanaka, K.; Tamura, N.; Zwart, H. J.; Kubo, S.; Ito, S.; Tsuchiya, H.; de Baar, M. R.; LHD Experiment Group

2017-12-01

A new methodology to analyze non-linear components in perturbative transport experiments is introduced. The methodology has been experimentally validated in the Large Helical Device for the electron heat transport channel. Electron cyclotron resonance heating with different modulation frequencies by two gyrotrons has been used to directly quantify the amplitude of the non-linear component at the inter-modulation frequencies. The measurements show significant quadratic non-linear contributions and also the absence of cubic and higher order components. The non-linear component is analyzed using the Volterra series, which is the non-linear generalization of transfer functions. This allows us to study the radial distribution of the non-linearity of the plasma and to reconstruct linear profiles where the measurements were not distorted by non-linearities. The reconstructed linear profiles are significantly different from the measured profiles, demonstrating the significant impact that non-linearity can have.

Kinetic analysis of elastomeric lag damper for helicopter rotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yafang; Wang, Jidong; Tong, Yan

2018-02-01

The elastomeric lag dampers suppress the ground resonance and air resonance that play a significant role in the stability of the helicopter. In this paper, elastomeric lag damper which is made from silicone rubber is built. And a series of experiments are conducted on this elastomeric lag damper. The stress-strain curves of elastomeric lag dampers employed shear forces at different frequency are obtained. And a finite element model is established based on Burgers model. The result of simulation and tests shows that the simple, linear model will yield good predictions of damper energy dissipation and it is adequate for predicting the stress-strain hysteresis loop within the operating frequency and a small-amplitude oscillation.

Dynamical heterogeneities and mechanical non-linearities: Modeling the onset of plasticity in polymer in the glass transition.

PubMed

Masurel, R J; Gelineau, P; Lequeux, F; Cantournet, S; Montes, H

2017-12-27

In this paper we focus on the role of dynamical heterogeneities on the non-linear response of polymers in the glass transition domain. We start from a simple coarse-grained model that assumes a random distribution of the initial local relaxation times and that quantitatively describes the linear viscoelasticity of a polymer in the glass transition regime. We extend this model to non-linear mechanics assuming a local Eyring stress dependence of the relaxation times. Implementing the model in a finite element mechanics code, we derive the mechanical properties and the local mechanical fields at the beginning of the non-linear regime. The model predicts a narrowing of distribution of relaxation times and the storage of a part of the mechanical energy --internal stress-- transferred to the material during stretching in this temperature range. We show that the stress field is not spatially correlated under and after loading and follows a Gaussian distribution. In addition the strain field exhibits shear bands, but the strain distribution is narrow. Hence, most of the mechanical quantities can be calculated analytically, in a very good approximation, with the simple assumption that the strain rate is constant.

Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

2015-03-01

We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

Linear velocity fields in non-Gaussian models for large-scale structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scherrer, Robert J.

1992-01-01

Linear velocity fields in two types of physically motivated non-Gaussian models are examined for large-scale structure: seed models, in which the density field is a convolution of a density profile with a distribution of points, and local non-Gaussian fields, derived from a local nonlinear transformation on a Gaussian field. The distribution of a single component of the velocity is derived for seed models with randomly distributed seeds, and these results are applied to the seeded hot dark matter model and the global texture model with cold dark matter. An expression for the distribution of a single component of the velocity in arbitrary local non-Gaussian models is given, and these results are applied to such fields with chi-squared and lognormal distributions. It is shown that all seed models with randomly distributed seeds and all local non-Guassian models have single-component velocity distributions with positive kurtosis.

A Geostatistical Scaling Approach for the Generation of Non Gaussian Random Variables and Increments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, Alberto; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Riva, Monica; Panzeri, Marco

2016-04-01

We address manifestations of non-Gaussian statistical scaling displayed by many variables, Y, and their (spatial or temporal) increments. Evidence of such behavior includes symmetry of increment distributions at all separation distances (or lags) with sharp peaks and heavy tails which tend to decay asymptotically as lag increases. Variables reported to exhibit such distributions include quantities of direct relevance to hydrogeological sciences, e.g. porosity, log permeability, electrical resistivity, soil and sediment texture, sediment transport rate, rainfall, measured and simulated turbulent fluid velocity, and other. No model known to us captures all of the documented statistical scaling behaviors in a unique and consistent manner. We recently proposed a generalized sub-Gaussian model (GSG) which reconciles within a unique theoretical framework the probability distributions of a target variable and its increments. We presented an algorithm to generate unconditional random realizations of statistically isotropic or anisotropic GSG functions and illustrated it in two dimensions. In this context, we demonstrated the feasibility of estimating all key parameters of a GSG model underlying a single realization of Y by analyzing jointly spatial moments of Y data and corresponding increments. Here, we extend our GSG model to account for noisy measurements of Y at a discrete set of points in space (or time), present an algorithm to generate conditional realizations of corresponding isotropic or anisotropic random field, and explore them on one- and two-dimensional synthetic test cases.

Toward comparing experiment and theory for corroborative research on hingeless rotor stability in forward flight (an experimental and analytical investigation of isolated rotor-flap-lag stability in forward flight)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, G.

1986-01-01

For flap-lag stability of isolated rotors, experimental and analytical investigations are conducted in hover and forward flight on the adequacy of a linear quasisteady aerodynamics theory with dynamic inflow. Forward flight effects on lag regressing mode are emphasized. Accordingly, a soft inplane hingeless rotor with three blades is tested at advance ratios as high as 0.55 and at shaft angles as high as 20 degrees. The 1.62 m model rotor is untrimmed with an essentially unrestricted tilt of the tip path plane. In combination with lag natural frequencies, collective pitch settings and flap-lag coupling parameters, the data base comprises nearly 1200 test points (damping and frequency) in forward flight and 200 test points in hover. By computerized symbolic manipulation, a linear analytical model is developed in substall to predict stability margins with mode identificaton. To help explain the correlation between theory and data it also predicts substall and stall regions of the rotor disk from equilibrium values. The correlation shows both the strengthts and weaknesses of the theory in substall.

Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Olmesartan, the Active Metabolite of Olmesartan Medoxomil, in Patients with Hypertension.

PubMed

Kodati, Devender; Kotakonda, Harish Kaushik; Yellu, Narsimhareddy

2017-08-01

Olmesartan medoxomil is an orally given angiotensin II receptor antagonist indicated for the treatment of hypertension. The aim of the study was to establish a population pharmacokinetic model for olmesartan, the active metabolite of olmesartan medoxomil, in Indian hypertensive patients, and to evaluate effects of covariates on the volume of distribution (V/F) and oral clearance (CL/F) of olmesartan. The population pharmacokinetic model for olmesartan was developed using Phoenix NLME 1.3 with a non-linear mixed-effect model. Bootstrap and visual predictive check were used simultaneously to validate the final population pharmacokinetic models. The covariates included age, sex, body surface area (BSA), bodyweight, height, creatinine clearance (CL CR ) as an index of renal function and liver parameters as indices of hepatic function. A total of 205 olmesartan plasma sample concentrations from 69 patients with hypertension were collected in this study. The pharmacokinetic data of olmesartan was well described by a two-compartment linear pharmacokinetic model with first-order absorption and an absorption lag-time. The mean values of CL/F and V/F of olmesartan in the patients were 0.31565 L/h and 44.5162 L, respectively. Analysis of covariates showed that age and CL CR were factors influencing the clearance of olmesartan and the volume of distribution of olmesartan was dependent on age and BSA. The final population pharmacokinetic model was demonstrated to be appropriate and effective and it can be used to assess the pharmacokinetic parameters of olmesartan in Indian patients with hypertension.

Burst Statistics Using the Lag-Luminosity Relationship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Band, D. L.; Norris, J. P.; Bonnell, J. T.

2003-01-01

Using the lag-luminosity relation and various BATSE catalogs we create a large catalog of burst redshifts, peak luminosities and emitted energies. These catalogs permit us to evaluate the lag-luminosity relation, and to study the burst energy distribution. We find that this distribution can be described as a power law with an index of alpha = 1.76 +/- 0.05 (95% confidence), close to the alpha = 2 predicted by the original quasi-universal jet model.

Performance of fuzzy approach in Malaysia short-term electricity load forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansor, Rosnalini; Zulkifli, Malina; Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Ismail, Mohd Isfahani; Ismail, Suzilah; Yin, Yip Chee

2014-12-01

Many activities such as economic, education and manafucturing would paralyse with limited supply of electricity but surplus contribute to high operating cost. Therefore electricity load forecasting is important in order to avoid shortage or excess. Previous finding showed festive celebration has effect on short-term electricity load forecasting. Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major festive celebrations such as Eidul Fitri, Chinese New Year and Deepavali but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian calendar. This study emphasis on the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity load when considering the presence of moving holidays. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity load. The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity load were significant in the model. Overall, model simplification improves fuzzy performance due to less variables and rules.

How much does the time lag between wildlife field-data collection and LiDAR-data acquisition matter for studies of animal distributions? A case study using bird communities

Treesearch

Kerri T. Vierling; Charles E. Swift; Andrew T. Hudak; Jody C. Vogeler; Lee A. Vierling

2014-01-01

Vegetation structure quantified by light detection and ranging (LiDAR) can improve understanding of wildlife occupancy and species-richness patterns. However, there is often a time lag between the collection of LiDAR data and wildlife data. We investigated whether a time lag between the LiDAR acquisition and field-data acquisition affected mapped wildlife distributions...

Implications of Lag-Luminosity Relationship for Unified GRB Paradigms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, J. P.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Spectral lags (tau(sub lag)) are deduced for 1437 long (T(sub 90) greater than 2 s) BATSE gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) with peak flux F(sub p) greater than 0.25 photons cm(sup -2)/s, near to the BATSE trigger threshold. The lags are modeled to approximate the observed distribution in the F(sub p)-T(sub lag) plane, realizing a noise-free representation. Assuming a two-branch lag-luminosity relationship, the lags are self-consistently corrected for cosmological effects to yield distributions in luminosity, distance, and redshift. The results have several consequences for GRB populations and for unified gamma-ray/afterglow scenarios which would account for afterglow break times and gamma-ray spectral evolution in terms of jet opening angle, viewing angle, or a profiled jet with variable Lorentz factor: A component of the burst sample is identified - those with few, wide pulses, lags of a few tenths to several seconds, and soft spectra - whose Log[N]-Log[F(sub p)] distribution approximates a -3/2 power-law, suggesting homogeneity and thus relatively nearby sources. The proportion of these long-lag bursts increases from negligible among bright BATSE bursts to approx. 50% at trigger threshold. Bursts with very long lags, approx. 1-2 less than tau(sub lag) (S) less than 10, show a tendency to concentrate near the Supergalactic Plane with a quadrupole moment of approx. -0.10 +/- 0.04. GRB 980425 (SN 1998bw) is a member of this subsample of approx. 90 bursts with estimated distances less than 100 Mpc. The frequency of the observed ultra-low luminosity bursts is approx. 1/4 that of SNe Ib/c within the same volume. If truly nearby, the core-collapse events associated with these GRBs might produce gravitational radiation detectable by LIGO-II. Such nearby bursts might also help explain flattening of the cosmic ray spectrum at ultra-high energies, as observed by AGASA.

How Does Ambient Air Temperature Affect Diabetes Mortality in Tropical Cities?

PubMed Central

Seposo, Xerxes T.; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Honda, Yasushi

2017-01-01

Diabetes is well-known as one of the many chronic diseases that affect different age groups. Currently, most studies that evaluated the effects of temperature on diabetes mortality focused on temperate and subtropical settings, but no study has been conducted to assess the relationship in a tropical setting. We conducted the first multi-city study carried out in tropical cities, which evaluated the temperature–diabetes relationship. We collected daily diabetes mortality (ICD E10–E14) of four Philippine cities from 2006 to 2011. Same period meteorological data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used a generalized additive model coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) in determining the relative risks. Results showed that both low and high temperatures pose greater risks among diabetics. Likewise, the study was able to observe the: (1) high risk brought about by low temperature, aside from the largely observed high risks by high temperature; and (2) protective effects in low temperature percentile. These results provide significant policy implications with strategies related to diabetes risk groups in relation to health service and care strategies. PMID:28379204

How Does Ambient Air Temperature Affect Diabetes Mortality in Tropical Cities?

PubMed

Seposo, Xerxes T; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Honda, Yasushi

2017-04-05

Diabetes is well-known as one of the many chronic diseases that affect different age groups. Currently, most studies that evaluated the effects of temperature on diabetes mortality focused on temperate and subtropical settings, but no study has been conducted to assess the relationship in a tropical setting. We conducted the first multi-city study carried out in tropical cities, which evaluated the temperature-diabetes relationship. We collected daily diabetes mortality (ICD E10-E14) of four Philippine cities from 2006 to 2011. Same period meteorological data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used a generalized additive model coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) in determining the relative risks. Results showed that both low and high temperatures pose greater risks among diabetics. Likewise, the study was able to observe the: (1) high risk brought about by low temperature, aside from the largely observed high risks by high temperature; and (2) protective effects in low temperature percentile. These results provide significant policy implications with strategies related to diabetes risk groups in relation to health service and care strategies.

Trends in Water Level and Flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh and Their Impact on Mortality

PubMed Central

Thiele-Eich, Insa; Burkart, Katrin; Simmer, Clemens

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), which is currently among the fastest growing cities in the world. In the past, high mortality counts have been associated with extreme flood events. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. A distributed lag non-linear model was then used to examine the connection between water levels and mortality. Results indicate that for the period of 2003–2007, which entails two major flood events in 2004 and 2007, high water levels do not lead to a significant increase in relative mortality, which indicates a good level of adaptation and capacity to cope with flooding. However, following low water levels, an increase in mortality could be found. As our trend analysis of past water levels shows that minimum water levels have decreased during the past 100 years, action should be taken to ensure that the exposed population is also well-adapted to drought. PMID:25648177

Mental disease-related emergency admissions attributable to hot temperatures.

PubMed

Lee, Suji; Lee, Hwanhee; Myung, Woojae; Kim, E Jin; Kim, Ho

2018-03-01

The association between high temperature and mental disease has been the focus of several studies worldwide. However, no studies have focused on the mental disease burden attributable to hot temperature. Here, we aim to quantify the risk attributed to hot temperatures based on the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and mental diseases. From data on daily temperature and emergency admissions (EA) for mental diseases collected from 6 major cities (Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Daegu, Busan, and Gwangju in South Korea) over a period of 11years (2003-2013), we estimated temperature-disease associations using a distributed lag non-linear model, and we pooled the data by city through multivariate meta-analysis. Cumulative relative risk and attributable risks were calculated for extreme hot temperatures, defined as the 99th percentile relative to the 50th percentile of temperatures. The strongest association between mental disease and high temperature was seen within a period of 0-4days of high temperature exposure. Our results reveal that 14.6% of EA for mental disease were due to extreme hot temperatures, and the elderly were more susceptible (19.1%). Specific mental diseases, including anxiety, dementia, schizophrenia, and depression, also showed significant risk attributed to hot temperatures. Of all EA for anxiety, 31.6% were attributed to extremely hot temperatures. High temperature was responsible for an attributable risk for mental disease, and the burden was higher in the elderly. This finding has important implications for designing appropriate public health policies to minimize the impact of high temperature on mental health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Low Ambient Temperature and Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The INTERACT2 Study.

PubMed

Zheng, Danni; Arima, Hisatomi; Sato, Shoichiro; Gasparrini, Antonio; Heeley, Emma; Delcourt, Candice; Lo, Serigne; Huang, Yining; Wang, Jiguang; Stapf, Christian; Robinson, Thompson; Lavados, Pablo; Chalmers, John; Anderson, Craig S

2016-01-01

Rates of acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) increase in winter months but the magnitude of risk is unknown. We aimed to quantify the association of ambient temperature with the risk of ICH in the Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Haemorrhage Trial (INTERACT2) participants on an hourly timescale. INTERACT2 was an international, open, blinded endpoint, randomized controlled trial of patients with spontaneous ICH (<6h of onset) and elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP, 150-220 mmHg) assigned to intensive (target SBP <140 mmHg) or guideline-recommended (SBP <180 mmHg) BP treatment. We linked individual level hourly temperature to baseline data of 1997 participants, and performed case-crossover analyses using a distributed lag non-linear model with 24h lag period to assess the association of ambient temperature and risk of ICH. Results were presented as overall cumulative odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CI. Low ambient temperature (≤10°C) was associated with increased risks of ICH: overall cumulative OR was 1.37 (0.99-1.91) for 10°C, 1.92 (1.31-2.81) for 0°C, 3.13 (1.89-5.19) for -10°C, and 5.76 (2.30-14.42) for -20°C, as compared with a reference temperature of 20°C.There was no clear relation of low temperature beyond three hours after exposure. Results were consistent in sensitivity analyses. Exposure to low ambient temperature within several hours increases the risk of ICH. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00716079.

Low Ambient Temperature and Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The INTERACT2 Study

PubMed Central

Zheng, Danni; Arima, Hisatomi; Sato, Shoichiro; Gasparrini, Antonio; Heeley, Emma; Delcourt, Candice; Lo, Serigne; Huang, Yining; Wang, Jiguang; Stapf, Christian; Robinson, Thompson; Lavados, Pablo; Chalmers, John; Anderson, Craig S.

2016-01-01

Background Rates of acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) increase in winter months but the magnitude of risk is unknown. We aimed to quantify the association of ambient temperature with the risk of ICH in the Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Haemorrhage Trial (INTERACT2) participants on an hourly timescale. Methods INTERACT2 was an international, open, blinded endpoint, randomized controlled trial of patients with spontaneous ICH (<6h of onset) and elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP, 150–220 mmHg) assigned to intensive (target SBP <140 mmHg) or guideline-recommended (SBP <180 mmHg) BP treatment. We linked individual level hourly temperature to baseline data of 1997 participants, and performed case-crossover analyses using a distributed lag non-linear model with 24h lag period to assess the association of ambient temperature and risk of ICH. Results were presented as overall cumulative odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CI. Results Low ambient temperature (≤10°C) was associated with increased risks of ICH: overall cumulative OR was 1.37 (0.99–1.91) for 10°C, 1.92 (1.31–2.81) for 0°C, 3.13 (1.89–5.19) for -10°C, and 5.76 (2.30–14.42) for -20°C, as compared with a reference temperature of 20°C.There was no clear relation of low temperature beyond three hours after exposure. Results were consistent in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Exposure to low ambient temperature within several hours increases the risk of ICH. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00716079 PMID:26859491

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-04-01

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009.

PubMed

Sherbakov, Toki; Malig, Brian; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Basu, Rupa

2018-01-01

Investigators have examined how heat waves or incremental changes in temperature affect health outcomes, but few have examined both simultaneously. We utilized distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to explore temperature associations and evaluate possible added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in 16 climate zones throughout California from May through October 1999-2009. We define heat waves as a period when daily mean temperatures were above the zone- and month-specific 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. DLNMs were used to estimate climate zone-specific non-linear temperature and heat wave effects, which were then combined using random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall estimate for each. With higher temperatures, admissions for acute renal failure, appendicitis, dehydration, ischemic stroke, mental health, non-infectious enteritis, and primary diabetes were significantly increased, with added effects from heat waves observed for acute renal failure and dehydration. Higher temperatures also predicted statistically significant decreases in hypertension admissions, respiratory admissions, and respiratory diseases with secondary diagnoses of diabetes, though heat waves independently predicted an added increase in risk for both respiratory types. Our findings provide evidence that both heat wave and temperature exposures can exert effects independently. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transmembrane protein CD93 diffuses by a continuous time random walk.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goiko, Maria; de Bruyn, John; Heit, Bryan

Molecular motion within the cell membrane is a poorly-defined process. In this study, we characterized the diffusion of the transmembrane protein CD93. By careful analysis of the dependence of the ensemble-averaged mean squared displacement (EA-MSD, r2) on time t and the ensemble-averaged, time-averaged MSD (EA-TAMSD, δ2) on lag time τ and total measurement time T, we showed that the motion of CD93 is well-described by a continuous-time random walk (CTRW). CD93 tracks were acquired using single particle tracking. The tracks were classified as confined or free, and the behavior of the MSD analyzed. EA-MSDs of both populations grew non-linearly with t, indicative of anomalous diffusion. Their EA-TAMSDs were found to depend on both τ and T, indicating non-ergodicity. Free molecules had r2 tα and δ2 (τ /T 1 - α) , with α 0 . 5 , consistent with a CTRW. Mean maximal excursion analysis supported this result. Confined CD93 had r2 t0 and δ2 (τ / T) α , with α 0 . 3 , consistent with a confined CTRW. CTRWs are described by a series of random jumps interspersed with power-law distributed waiting times, and may arise due to the interactions of CD93 with the endocytic machinery. NSERC.

Nonlinear flap-lag axial equations of a rotating beam

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaza, K. R. V.; Kvaternik, R. G.

1977-01-01

It is possible to identify essentially four approaches by which analysts have established either the linear or nonlinear governing equations of motion for a particular problem related to the dynamics of rotating elastic bodies. The approaches include the effective applied load artifice in combination with a variational principle and the use of Newton's second law, written as D'Alembert's principle, applied to the deformed configuration. A third approach is a variational method in which nonlinear strain-displacement relations and a first-degree displacement field are used. The method introduced by Vigneron (1975) for deriving the linear flap-lag equations of a rotating beam constitutes the fourth approach. The reported investigation shows that all four approaches make use of the geometric nonlinear theory of elasticity. An alternative method for deriving the nonlinear coupled flap-lag-axial equations of motion is also discussed.

Discriminative analysis of non-linear brain connectivity for leukoaraiosis with resting-state fMRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Youzhi; Xu, Lele; Yao, Li; Wu, Xia

2015-03-01

Leukoaraiosis (LA) describes diffuse white matter abnormalities on CT or MR brain scans, often seen in the normal elderly and in association with vascular risk factors such as hypertension, or in the context of cognitive impairment. The mechanism of cognitive dysfunction is still unclear. The recent clinical studies have revealed that the severity of LA was not corresponding to the cognitive level, and functional connectivity analysis is an appropriate method to detect the relation between LA and cognitive decline. However, existing functional connectivity analyses of LA have been mostly limited to linear associations. In this investigation, a novel measure utilizing the extended maximal information coefficient (eMIC) was applied to construct non-linear functional connectivity in 44 LA subjects (9 dementia, 25 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 10 cognitively normal (CN)). The strength of non-linear functional connections for the first 1% of discriminative power increased in MCI compared with CN and dementia, which was opposed to its linear counterpart. Further functional network analysis revealed that the changes of the non-linear and linear connectivity have similar but not completely the same spatial distribution in human brain. In the multivariate pattern analysis with multiple classifiers, the non-linear functional connectivity mostly identified dementia, MCI and CN from LA with a relatively higher accuracy rate than the linear measure. Our findings revealed the non-linear functional connectivity provided useful discriminative power in classification of LA, and the spatial distributed changes between the non-linear and linear measure may indicate the underlying mechanism of cognitive dysfunction in LA.

Toward comparing experiment and theory for corroborative research on hingeless rotor stability in forward flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, G.

1987-01-01

For flap lag stability of isolated rotors, experimental and analytical investigations were conducted in hover and forward flight on the adequacy of a linear quasisteady aerodynamics theory with dynamic flow. Forward flight effects on lag regressing mode were emphasized. A soft inplane hingeless rotor with three blades was tested at advance ratios as high as 0.55 and at shaft angles as high as 20 deg. The 1.62 m model rotor was untrimmed with an essentially unrestricted tilt of the tip path plane. In combination with lag natural frequencies, collective pitch settings and flap lag coupling parameters, the data base comprises nearly 1200 test points (damping and frequency) in forward flight and 200 test points in hover. By computerized symbolic manipulation, a linear model was developed in substall to predict stability margins with mode identification. To help explain the correlation between theory and data it also predicted substall and stall regions of the rotor disk from equilibrium values. The correlation showed both the strengths and weaknesses of the theory in substall ((angle of attack) equal to or less than 12 deg).

X-ray time lags in PG 1211+143

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobban, A. P.; Vaughan, S.; Pounds, K.; Reeves, J. N.

2018-05-01

We investigate the X-ray time lags of a recent ˜630 ks XMM-Newton observation of PG 1211+143. We find well-correlated variations across the XMM-Newton EPIC bandpass, with the first detection of a hard lag in this source with a mean time delay of up to ˜3 ks at the lowest frequencies. We find that the energy-dependence of the low-frequency hard lag scales approximately linearly with log(E) when averaged over all orbits, consistent with the propagating fluctuations model. However, we find that the low-frequency lag behaviour becomes more complex on time-scales longer than a single orbit, suggestive of additional modes of variability. We also detect a high-frequency soft lag at ˜10-4 Hz with the magnitude of the delay peaking at ≲ 0.8 ks, consistent with previous observations, which we discuss in terms of small-scale reverberation.

A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

2012-04-01

In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

[Influence of daily ambient temperature on mortality and years of life lost in Chongqing].

PubMed

Li, Jing; Luo, Shuquan; Ding, Xianbin; Yang, Jun; Li, Jing; Liu, Xiaobo; Gao, Jinghong; Xu, Lei; Tang, Wenge; Liu, Qiyong

2016-03-01

To evaluate the influence of extreme ambient temperature on mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in Chongqing. The daily mortality, meteorology and air pollution index data in Chongqing from the 1(st) January 2010 to the 31(st) December 2013 were collected. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to assess the influence of daily ambient temperature on daily number of deaths and daily YLL respectively. The delayed and cumulative effects of extreme temperature on sex, age, and cause-specific mortality were also assessed. The relationships between ambient temperature and non-accidental, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease mortalities and YLL were U-shaped or W-shaped. The effect of heat was obvious on that day, peaked on day 7, and lasted for two weeks, whereas the effect of cold was obvious a week later and lasted for a month. As 1 ℃ increase of ambient temperature, the cumulative relative risks (CRR) of high temperature across lag 0-7 days on non-accidental, respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease mortalities were 1.05 (95%CI: 1.03-1.07), 1.08 (95%CI: 1.05-1.11) and 1.05 (95%CI: 1.01-1.09) respectively. The effects of heat on YLL for each cause were 23.81 (95%CI: 12.31-35.31), 14.34 (95%CI: 8.98-19.70) and 4.43 (95%CI: 1.64-7.21), respectively. On cold days, 1 ℃ decrease of ambient temperature was correlated with an increase in CRR of 1.06 (95%CI: 1.04-1.08), 1.09 (95%CI:1.06-1.12) and 1.06 (95%CI: 1.02-1.11) from lag 0 to 14 for non-accidental, respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease mortalities, respectively. The estimated YLL were 23.34 (95%CI: 10.04-36.64), 16.39 (95%CI: 10.19-22.59) and 2.61 (95%CI: -0.61-5.82). People aged ≥65 years tend to have higher CRR and YLL than those aged <65 years. On high temperature days, the CRR in women was higher than that in men, while the YLL in women was lower than that in men. On low temperature days, both the CRR and YLL in women were higher than those in men. Both high and low ambient temperature have adverse health effects. People aged ≥65 years are more sensitive to both high and low ambient temperature. Younger men are more sensitive to high ambient temperature and women and elder men are sensitive to low ambient temperature. It is necessary to take targeted measures to protect the population in Chongqing from the adverse influence of extreme ambient temperature.

Ambient temperature and emergency department visits: Time-series analysis in 12 Chinese cities.

PubMed

Zhao, Qi; Zhang, Yongming; Zhang, Wenyi; Li, Shanshan; Chen, Gongbo; Wu, Yanbin; Qiu, Chen; Ying, Kejing; Tang, Huaping; Huang, Jian-An; Williams, Gail; Huxley, Rachel; Guo, Yuming

2017-05-01

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been well documented worldwide. However, limited data are available on nonfatal health outcomes, such as emergency department visits (EDVs), particularly from China. To examine the temperature-EDV association in 12 Chinese cities; and to assess the modification effects by region, gender and age. Daily meteorological data and non-accidental EDVs were collected during 2011-2014. Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to examine the temperature-lag-EDV association in each city. The effect estimates were pooled using multivariate meta-analysis at the national and regional level. Stratified analyses were performed by gender and age-groups. Sensitivity analyses adjusting for air pollution and relative humidity were conducted. A total of 4,443,127 EDVs were collected from the 12 cities. Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of EDVs, with minimum-mortality temperature located at 64th percentile of temperature. The effect of cold temperature appeared on day 2 and persisted until day 30, causing a cumulative relative risk (RR) of 1.80 (1.54, 2.11). The effect of hot temperature appeared immediately and lasted until day 3, with a cumulative RR of 1.15 (1.03, 1.29). The effect of temperature on EDVs was similar in male and female but was attenuated with increasing age. The effect of cold temperature on EDVs was greater in southern areas of the country whereas the hot effect was greater in northern cities. The association was robust to a large range of sensitivity analyses. In China, there is a U-shaped association between temperature and risk of EDVs that is independent of air pollution and humidity. The temperature-EDV association varies with latitude and age-groups but is not affected by gender. Forecasting models for hospital emergency departments may be improved if temperature is included as an independent predictor. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals difficult to be detected at a local scale as it could cause large uncertainties when using linear correlation analysis only. This paper explores the relationship between global SST and terrestrial precipitation with respect to long-term non-stationary teleconnection signals during 1981-2010 over three regions in North America and one in Central America. Empirical mode decomposition as well as wavelet analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic trend and the dominant oscillation of the SST and precipitation time series in sequence. After finding possible associations between the dominant oscillation of seasonal precipitation and global SST through lagged correlation analysis, the statistically significant SST regions are extracted based on the correlation coefficient. With these characterized associations, individual contribution of these SST forcing regions linked to the related precipitation responses are further quantified through nonlinear modeling with the aid of extreme learning machine. Results indicate that the non-leading SST regions also contribute a salient portion to the terrestrial precipitation variability compared to some known leading SST regions. In some cases, these

Environmental and occupational particulate matter exposures and ectopic heart beats in welders

PubMed Central

Cavallari, Jennifer M.; Fang, Shona C.; Eisen, Ellen A.; Mittleman, Murray A.; Christiani, David C.

2016-01-01

Objectives Links between arrhythmias and particulate matter exposures have been found among sensitive populations. We examined the relationship between personal PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5μm aerodynamic diameter) exposures and ectopy in a panel study of healthy welders. Methods Simultaneous ambulatory electrocardiogram (ECG) and personal PM2.5 exposure monitoring with DustTrak™ Aerosol Monitor was performed on 72 males during work and non-work periods for 5–90 hours (median 40 hours). ECGs were summarized hourly for supraventricular ectopy (SVE) and ventricular ectopy (VE). PM2.5 exposures both work and non-work periods were averaged hourly with lags from 0- to 7-hours. Generalized linear mixed-effects models with a random participant intercept were used to examine the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and the odds of SVE or VE. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess whether relationships differed by work period and current smokers. Results Participants had a mean(SD) age of 38(11) years and were monitored over 2,993 person-hours. The number of hourly ectopic events was highly skewed with mean(sd) of 14(69) VE and 1(4) SVE. We found marginally significant increases in VE with PM2.5 exposures in the 6th and 7th hour lags, yet no association with SVE. For every 100μg/m3 increase in 6th hour lagged PM2.5, the adjusted OR(95% CI) for VE was 1.03(1.00, 1.05). Results persisted in work or non-work exposure periods and non-smokers had increased odds of VE associated with PM2.5 as compared to smokers. Conclusions A small increase in the odds of ventricular ectopy with short term PM2.5 exposure was observed among relatively healthy men with environmental and occupational exposures. PMID:27052768

Homozygous diploid deletion strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae that determine lag phase and dehydration tolerance.

PubMed

D'Elia, Riccardo; Allen, Patricia L; Johanson, Kelly; Nickerson, Cheryl A; Hammond, Timothy G

2005-06-01

This study identifies genes that determine length of lag phase, using the model eukaryotic organism, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We report growth of a yeast deletion series following variations in the lag phase induced by variable storage times after drying-down yeast on filters. Using a homozygous diploid deletion pool, lag times ranging from 0 h to 90 h were associated with increased drop-out of mitochondrial genes and increased survival of nuclear genes. Simple linear regression (R2 analysis) shows that there are over 500 genes for which > 70% of the variation can be explained by lag alone. In the genes with a positive correlation, such that the gene abundance increases with lag and hence the deletion strain is suitable for survival during prolonged storage, there is a strong predominance of nucleonic genes. In the genes with a negative correlation, such that the gene abundance decreases with lag and hence the strain may be critical for getting yeast out of the lag phase, there is a strong predominance of glycoproteins and transmembrane proteins. This study identifies yeast deletion strains with survival advantage on prolonged storage and amplifies our understanding of the genes critical for getting out of the lag phase.

Homozygous diploid deletion strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae that determine lag phase and dehydration tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

D'Elia, Riccardo; Allen, Patricia L.; Johanson, Kelly; Nickerson, Cheryl A.; Hammond, Timothy G.

2005-01-01

This study identifies genes that determine length of lag phase, using the model eukaryotic organism, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We report growth of a yeast deletion series following variations in the lag phase induced by variable storage times after drying-down yeast on filters. Using a homozygous diploid deletion pool, lag times ranging from 0 h to 90 h were associated with increased drop-out of mitochondrial genes and increased survival of nuclear genes. Simple linear regression (R2 analysis) shows that there are over 500 genes for which > 70% of the variation can be explained by lag alone. In the genes with a positive correlation, such that the gene abundance increases with lag and hence the deletion strain is suitable for survival during prolonged storage, there is a strong predominance of nucleonic genes. In the genes with a negative correlation, such that the gene abundance decreases with lag and hence the strain may be critical for getting yeast out of the lag phase, there is a strong predominance of glycoproteins and transmembrane proteins. This study identifies yeast deletion strains with survival advantage on prolonged storage and amplifies our understanding of the genes critical for getting out of the lag phase.

Scaling of Ln(Permeability) in Sediments and Velocity Distributions in Turbulence: The Possibility of an Analogy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molz, F. J.; Kozubowski, T. J.; Miller, R. S.; Podgorski, K.

2005-12-01

The theory of non-stationary stochastic processes with stationary increments gives rise to stochastic fractals. When such fractals are used to represent measurements of (assumed stationary) physical properties, such as ln(k) increments in sediments or velocity increments "delta(v)" in turbulent flows, the resulting measurements exhibit scaling, either spatial, temporal or both. (In the present context, such scaling refers to systematic changes in the statistical properties of the increment distributions, such as variance, with the lag size over which the increments are determined.) Depending on the class of probability density functions (PDFs) that describe the increment distributions, the resulting stochastic fractals will display different properties. Until recently, the stationary increment process was represented using mainly Gaussian, Gamma or Levy PDFs. However, measurements in both sediments and fluid turbulence indicate that these PDFs are not commonly observed. Based on recent data and previous studies referenced and discussed in Meerschaert et al. (2004) and Molz et al. (2005), the measured increment PDFs display an approximate double exponential (Laplace) shape at smaller lags, and this shape evolves towards Gaussian at larger lags. A model for this behavior based on the Generalized Laplace PDF family called fractional Laplace motion, in analogy with its Gaussian counterpart - fractional Brownian motion, has been suggested (Meerschaert et al., 2004) and the necessary mathematics elaborated (Kozubowski et al., 2005). The resulting stochastic fractal is not a typical self-affine monofractal, but it does exhibit monofractal-like scaling in certain lag size ranges. To date, it has been shown that the Generalized Laplace family fits ln(k) increment distributions and reproduces the original 1941 theory of Kolmogorov when applied to Eulerian turbulent velocity increments. However, to make a physically self-consistent application to turbulence, one must adopt a Lagrangian viewpoint, and the details of this approach are still being developed. The potential analogy between turbulent delta(v) and sediment delta[ln(k)] is intriguing, and perhaps offers insight into the underlying chaotic processes that constitute turbulence and may result also in the pervasive heterogeneity observed in most natural sediments. Properties of the new Laplace fractal are presented, and potential applications to both sediments and fluid turbulence are discussed.

Stability of elastic bending and torsion of uniform cantilever rotor blades in hover with variable structural coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, D. H., Roberta.

1976-01-01

The stability of elastic flap bending, lead-lag bending, and torsion of uniform, untwisted, cantilever rotor blades without chordwise offsets between the elastic, mass, tension, and areodynamic center axes is investigated for the hovering flight condition. The equations of motion are obtained by simplifying the general, nonlinear, partial differential equations of motion of an elastic rotating cantilever blade. The equations are adapted for a linearized stability analysis in the hovering flight condition by prescribing aerodynamic forces, applying Galerkin's method, and linearizing the resulting ordinary differential equations about the equilibrium operating condition. The aerodynamic forces are obtained from strip theory based on a quasi-steady approximation of two-dimensional unsteady airfoil theory. Six coupled mode shapes, calculated from free vibration about the equilibrium operating condition, are used in the linearized stability analysis. The study emphasizes the effects of two types of structural coupling that strongly influence the stability of hingeless rotor blades. The first structural coupling is the linear coupling between flap and lead-lag bending of the rotor blade. The second structural coupling is a nonlinear coupling between flap bending, lead-lag bending, and torsion deflections. Results are obtained for a wide variety of hingeless rotor configurations and operating conditions in order to provide a reasonably complete picture of hingeless rotor blade stability characteristics.

Emergence of the interplay between hierarchy and contact splitting in biological adhesion highlighted through a hierarchical shear lag model.

PubMed

Brely, Lucas; Bosia, Federico; Pugno, Nicola M

2018-06-20

Contact unit size reduction is a widely studied mechanism as a means to improve adhesion in natural fibrillar systems, such as those observed in beetles or geckos. However, these animals also display complex structural features in the way the contact is subdivided in a hierarchical manner. Here, we study the influence of hierarchical fibrillar architectures on the load distribution over the contact elements of the adhesive system, and the corresponding delamination behaviour. We present an analytical model to derive the load distribution in a fibrillar system loaded in shear, including hierarchical splitting of contacts, i.e. a "hierarchical shear-lag" model that generalizes the well-known shear-lag model used in mechanics. The influence on the detachment process is investigated introducing a numerical procedure that allows the derivation of the maximum delamination force as a function of the considered geometry, including statistical variability of local adhesive energy. Our study suggests that contact splitting generates improved adhesion only in the ideal case of extremely compliant contacts. In real cases, to produce efficient adhesive performance, contact splitting needs to be coupled with hierarchical architectures to counterbalance high load concentrations resulting from contact unit size reduction, generating multiple delamination fronts and helping to avoid detrimental non-uniform load distributions. We show that these results can be summarized in a generalized adhesion scaling scheme for hierarchical structures, proving the beneficial effect of multiple hierarchical levels. The model can thus be used to predict the adhesive performance of hierarchical adhesive structures, as well as the mechanical behaviour of composite materials with hierarchical reinforcements.

Cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall in warm-season Florida thunderstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gungle, B.; Krider, E.P.

2006-01-01

Relationships between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and surface rainfall have been examined in nine isolated, warm-season thunderstorms on the east coast of central Florida. CG flashes and the associated rain volumes were measured as a function of time in storm-centered reference frames that followed each storm over a network of rain gauges. Values of the storm-average rain volume per CG flash ranged from 0.70 ?? 104 to 6.4 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, with a mean (and standard deviation) of 2.6 ?? 104 ?? 2.1 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. Values of the rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.11 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash with a mean of 2.1 ?? 104 ?? 2.0 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. The lag-time between the peak CG flash rate and the peak rainfall rate (using 5 min bins), and the results of a lag correlation analysis, show that surface rainfall tends to follow the lightning (positive lag) by up to 20 min in six storms. In one storm the rainfall preceded the lightning by 5 min, and two storms had nonsignificant lags. Values of the lagged rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.43 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, and the mean was 1.9 ?? 104 ?? 1.7 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. For the five storms that produced 12 or more flashes and had significant lags, a plot of the optimum lag time versus the total number of CG flashes shows a linear trend (R2 = 0.56). The number of storms is limited, but the lag results do indicate that large storms tend to have longer lags. A linear fit to the lagged rain volume vs. the number of concurrent CG flashes has a slope of 1.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash (R2 = 0.83). We conclude that warm-season Florida thunderstorms produce a roughly constant rain volume per CG flash and that CG lightning can be used to estimate the location and intensity of convective rainfall in that weather regime. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape

PubMed Central

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for ‘difficult’ variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables. PMID:29713298

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape.

PubMed

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for 'difficult' variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables.

Air pollution and mortality in Latin America: the role of education.

PubMed

O'Neill, Marie S; Bell, Michelle L; Ranjit, Nalini; Cifuentes, Luis A; Loomis, Dana; Gouveia, Nelson; Borja-Aburto, Victor H

2008-11-01

People with less education in Europe, Asia, and the United States are at higher risk of mortality associated with daily and longer-term air pollution exposure. We examined whether educational level modified associations between mortality and ambient particulate pollution (PM10) in Latin America, using several timescales. The study population included people who died during 1998-2002 in Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and São Paulo, Brazil. We fit city-specific robust Poisson regressions to daily deaths for nonexternal-cause mortality, and then stratified by age, sex, and educational attainment among adults older than age 21 years (none, some primary, some secondary, and high school degree or more). Predictor variables included a natural spline for temporal trend, linear PM10 and apparent temperature at matching lags, and day-of-week indicators. We evaluated PM10 for lags 0 and 1 day, and fit an unconstrained distributed lag model for cumulative 6-day effects. The effects of a 10-microg/m increment in lag 1 PM10 on all nonexternal-cause adult mortality were for Mexico City 0.39% (95% confidence interval = 0.13%-0.65%); São Paulo 1.04% (0.71%-1.38%); and for Santiago 0.61% (0.40%-0.83%). We found cumulative 6-day effects for adult mortality in Santiago (0.86% [0.48%-1.23%]) and São Paulo (1.38% [0.85%-1.91%]), but no consistent gradients by educational status. PM10 had important short- and intermediate-term effects on mortality in these Latin American cities, but associations did not differ consistently by educational level.

Motion-Based Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Control Allocation Technique to Recover from Pilot Induced Oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craun, Robert W.; Acosta, Diana M.; Beard, Steven D.; Leonard, Michael W.; Hardy, Gordon H.; Weinstein, Michael; Yildiz, Yildiray

2013-01-01

This paper describes the maturation of a control allocation technique designed to assist pilots in the recovery from pilot induced oscillations (PIOs). The Control Allocation technique to recover from Pilot Induced Oscillations (CAPIO) is designed to enable next generation high efficiency aircraft designs. Energy efficient next generation aircraft require feedback control strategies that will enable lowering the actuator rate limit requirements for optimal airframe design. One of the common issues flying with actuator rate limits is PIOs caused by the phase lag between the pilot inputs and control surface response. CAPIO utilizes real-time optimization for control allocation to eliminate phase lag in the system caused by control surface rate limiting. System impacts of the control allocator were assessed through a piloted simulation evaluation of a non-linear aircraft simulation in the NASA Ames Vertical Motion Simulator. Results indicate that CAPIO helps reduce oscillatory behavior, including the severity and duration of PIOs, introduced by control surface rate limiting.

Modulating resonance behaviors by noise recycling in bistable systems with time delay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Zhongkui, E-mail: sunzk2008@gmail.com; Xu, Wei; Yang, Xiaoli

In this paper, the impact of noise recycling on resonance behaviors is studied theoretically and numerically in a prototypical bistable system with delayed feedback. According to the interior cooperating and interacting activity of noise recycling, a theory has been proposed by reducing the non-Markovian problem into a two-state model, wherein both the master equation and the transition rates depend on not only the current state but also the earlier two states due to the recycling lag and the feedback delay. By virtue of this theory, the formulae of the power spectrum density and the linear response function have been foundmore » analytically. And the theoretical results are well verified by numerical simulations. It has been demonstrated that both the recycling lag and the feedback delay play a crucial role in the resonance behaviors. In addition, the results also suggest an alternative scheme to modulate or control the coherence or stochastic resonance in bistable systems with time delay.« less

Dynamic light scattering: A fast and reliable method to analyze bacterial growth during the lag phase.

PubMed

Vargas, Susana; Millán-Chiu, Blanca E; Arvizu-Medrano, Sofía M; Loske, Achim M; Rodríguez, Rogelio

2017-06-01

A comparison between plate counting (PC) and dynamic light scattering (DLS) is reported. PC is the standard technique to determine bacterial population as a function of time; however, this method has drawbacks, such as the cumbersome preparation and handling of samples, as well as the long time required to obtain results. Alternative methods based on optical density are faster, but do not distinguish viable from non-viable cells. These inconveniences are overcome by using DLS. Two different bacteria strains were considered: Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus. DLS was performed at two different illuminating conditions: continuous and intermittent. By the increment of particle size as a function of time, it was possible to observe cell division and the formation of aggregates containing very few bacteria. The scattered intensity profiles showed the lag phase and the transition to the exponential phase of growth, providing a quantity proportional to viable bacteria concentration. The results revealed a clear and linear correlation in both lag and exponential phase, between the Log 10 (colony-forming units/mL) from PC and the Log 10 of the scattered intensity I s from DLS. These correlations provide a good support to use DLS as an alternative technique to determine bacterial population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Communal Coping Model of Pain Catastrophizing in Daily Life: A Within-Couples Daily Diary Study

PubMed Central

Burns, John W.; Gerhart, James I.; Post, Kristina M.; Smith, David A.; Porter, Laura S.; Schuster, Erik; Buvanendran, Asokumar; Fras, Anne Marie; Keefe, Francis J.

2015-01-01

The Communal Coping Model (CCM) characterizes pain catastrophizing as a coping tactic whereby pain expression elicits assistance and empathic responses from others. Married couples (N = 105 couples; one spouse with chronic low back pain) completed electronic daily diary assessments 5 times/day for 14 days. On these diaries, patients reported pain catastrophizing, pain, function, and perceived spouse support, criticism and hostility. Non-patient spouses reported on their support, criticism, and hostility directed toward patients, as well as their observations of patient pain and pain behaviors. Hierarchical linear modeling tested concurrent and lagged (3 hours later) relationships. Principal findings included: a) within-person increases in pain catastrophizing were positively associated with spouse reports of patient pain behavior in concurrent and lagged analyses; b) within-person increases in pain catastrophizing were positively associated with patient perceptions of spouse support, criticism, and hostility in concurrent analyses; c) within-person increases in pain catastrophizing were negatively associated with spouse reports of criticism and hostility in lagged analyses. Spouses reported patient behaviors that were tied to elevated pain catastrophizing, and spouses changed their behavior during and following elevated pain catastrophizing episodes. Pain catastrophizing may affect the interpersonal environment of patients and spouses in ways consistent with the CCM. PMID:26320945

Suppression of surface-originated gate lag by a dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deen, David A.; Storm, David F.; Scott Katzer, D.; Bass, R.; Meyer, David J.

2016-08-01

A dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) architecture is demonstrated that leverages ultra-thin epitaxial layers to suppress surface-related gate lag. Two high-density two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) channels are utilized in an AlN/GaN/AlN/GaN heterostructure wherein the top 2DEG serves as a quasi-equipotential that screens potential fluctuations resulting from distributed surface and interface states. The bottom channel serves as the transistor's modulated channel. Dual-channel AlN/GaN heterostructures were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on free-standing hydride vapor phase epitaxy GaN substrates. HEMTs fabricated with 300 nm long recessed gates demonstrated a gate lag ratio (GLR) of 0.88 with no degradation in drain current after bias stressed in subthreshold. These structures additionally achieved small signal metrics ft/fmax of 27/46 GHz. These performance results are contrasted with the non-recessed gate dual-channel HEMT with a GLR of 0.74 and 82 mA/mm current collapse with ft/fmax of 48/60 GHz.

Iterative algorithms for a non-linear inverse problem in atmospheric lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denevi, Giulia; Garbarino, Sara; Sorrentino, Alberto

2017-08-01

We consider the inverse problem of retrieving aerosol extinction coefficients from Raman lidar measurements. In this problem the unknown and the data are related through the exponential of a linear operator, the unknown is non-negative and the data follow the Poisson distribution. Standard methods work on the log-transformed data and solve the resulting linear inverse problem, but neglect to take into account the noise statistics. In this study we show that proper modelling of the noise distribution can improve substantially the quality of the reconstructed extinction profiles. To achieve this goal, we consider the non-linear inverse problem with non-negativity constraint, and propose two iterative algorithms derived using the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. We validate the algorithms with synthetic and experimental data. As expected, the proposed algorithms out-perform standard methods in terms of sensitivity to noise and reliability of the estimated profile.

Daily variations in effluent water turbidity and diarrhoeal illness in a Russian city.

PubMed

Egorov, Andrey I; Naumova, Elena N; Tereschenko, Andrey A; Kislitsin, Victor A; Ford, Timothy E

2003-03-01

To assess an association between temporal variations in drinking water quality and gastrointestinal (GI) illness, a cohort study involving 100 randomly selected families (367 individuals) was conducted in the city of Cherepovets, Russia from June through November 1999. Participants maintained daily diaries of gastrointestinal symptoms, water consumption and other behavioural exposure variables, while daily effluent water quality data were provided by the water utility. The cumulative incidence rate of self-reported gastrointestinal diseases, 1.7 cases per person-year, was almost two orders of magnitude higher than that of officially reported GI infections in the city. An interquartile range increase in effluent water turbidity of 0.8 Nephelometric Turbidity Units was associated with a relative risk of self-reported GI illness of 1.47 (95% Confidence Interval 1.16, 1.86) at a lag of 2 days after control for daily rate of consumption of non-boiled tap water, behavioural covariates, day of the week and a seasonally-related linear trend. In the analysis by subsets of study participants stratified by non-boiled tap water consumption, no statistically significant associations between turbidity and GI illness were found for the study participants who always boiled their drinking water. For individuals who drank non-boiled tap water, statistically significant associations between turbidity and GI illness were detected at lags 1, 2 and 7 days.

The Measurement of Pressure Through Tubes in Pressure Distribution Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemke, Paul E

1928-01-01

The tests described in this report were made to determine the error caused by using small tubes to connect orifices on the surface of aircraft to central pressure capsules in making pressure distribution tests. Aluminum tubes of 3/16-inch inside diameter were used to determine this error. Lengths from 20 feet to 226 feet and pressures whose maxima varied from 2 inches to 140 inches of water were used. Single-pressure impulses for which the time of rise of pressure from zero to a maximum varied from 0.25 second to 3 seconds were investigated. The results show that the pressure recorded at the capsule on the far end of the tube lags behind the pressure at the orifice end and experiences also a change in magnitude. For the values used in these tests the time lag and pressure change vary principally with the time of rise of pressure from zero to a maximum and the tube length. Curves are constructed showing the time lag and pressure change. Empirical formulas are also given for computing the time lag. Analysis of pressure distribution tests made on airplanes in flight shows that the recorded pressures are slightly higher than the pressures at the orifice and that the time lag is negligible. The apparent increase in pressure is usually within the experimental error, but in the case of the modern pursuit type of airplane the pressure increase may be 5 per cent. For pressure-distribution tests on airships the analysis shows that the time lag and pressure change may be neglected.

Recovery of heart rate variability after treadmill exercise analyzed by lagged Poincaré plot and spectral characteristics.

PubMed

Shi, Ping; Hu, Sijung; Yu, Hongliu

2018-02-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the recovery of heart rate variability (HRV) after treadmill exercise and to investigate the autonomic nervous system response after exercise. Frequency domain indices, i.e., LF(ms 2 ), HF(ms 2 ), LF(n.u.), HF(n.u.) and LF/HF, and lagged Poincaré plot width (SD1 m ) and length (SD2 m ) were introduced for comparison between the baseline period (Pre-E) before treadmill running and two periods after treadmill running (Post-E1 and Post-E2). The correlations between lagged Poincaré plot indices and frequency domain indices were applied to reveal the long-range correlation between linear and nonlinear indices during the recovery of HRV. The results suggested entirely attenuated autonomic nervous activity to the heart following the treadmill exercise. After the treadmill running, the sympathetic nerves achieved dominance and the parasympathetic activity was suppressed, which lasted for more than 4 min. The correlation coefficients between lagged Poincaré plot indices and spectral power indices could separate not only Pre-E and two sessions after the treadmill running, but also the two sessions in recovery periods, i.e., Post-E1 and Post-E2. Lagged Poincaré plot as an innovative nonlinear method showed a better performance over linear frequency domain analysis and conventional nonlinear Poincaré plot.

Technical Note: High temporal resolution characterization of gating response time.

PubMed

Wiersma, Rodney D; McCabe, Bradley P; Belcher, Andrew H; Jensen, Patrick J; Smith, Brett; Aydogan, Bulent

2016-06-01

Low temporal latency between a gating ON/OFF signal and the LINAC beam ON/OFF during respiratory gating is critical for patient safety. Here the authors describe a novel method to precisely measure gating lag times at high temporal resolutions. A respiratory gating simulator with an oscillating platform was modified to include a linear potentiometer for position measurement. A photon diode was placed at linear accelerator isocenter for beam output measurement. The output signals of the potentiometer and diode were recorded simultaneously at 2500 Hz with an analog to digital converter for four different commercial respiratory gating systems. The ON and OFF of the beam signal were located and compared to the expected gating window for both phase and position based gating and the temporal lag times extracted. For phase based gating, a real-time position management (RPM) infrared marker tracking system with a single camera and a RPM system with a stereoscopic camera were measured to have mean gate ON/OFF lag times of 98/90 and 86/44 ms, respectively. For position based gating, an AlignRT 3D surface system and a Calypso magnetic fiducial tracking system were measured to have mean gate ON/OFF lag times of 356/529 and 209/60 ms, respectively. Temporal resolution of the method was high enough to allow characterization of individual gate cycles and was primary limited by the sampling speed of the data recording device. Significant variation of mean gate ON/OFF lag time was found between different gating systems. For certain gating devices, individual gating cycle lag times can vary significantly.

Technical Note: High temporal resolution characterization of gating response time

PubMed Central

Wiersma, Rodney D.; McCabe, Bradley P.; Belcher, Andrew H.; Jensen, Patrick J.; Smith, Brett; Aydogan, Bulent

2016-01-01

Purpose: Low temporal latency between a gating ON/OFF signal and the LINAC beam ON/OFF during respiratory gating is critical for patient safety. Here the authors describe a novel method to precisely measure gating lag times at high temporal resolutions. Methods: A respiratory gating simulator with an oscillating platform was modified to include a linear potentiometer for position measurement. A photon diode was placed at linear accelerator isocenter for beam output measurement. The output signals of the potentiometer and diode were recorded simultaneously at 2500 Hz with an analog to digital converter for four different commercial respiratory gating systems. The ON and OFF of the beam signal were located and compared to the expected gating window for both phase and position based gating and the temporal lag times extracted. Results: For phase based gating, a real-time position management (RPM) infrared marker tracking system with a single camera and a RPM system with a stereoscopic camera were measured to have mean gate ON/OFF lag times of 98/90 and 86/44 ms, respectively. For position based gating, an AlignRT 3D surface system and a Calypso magnetic fiducial tracking system were measured to have mean gate ON/OFF lag times of 356/529 and 209/60 ms, respectively. Conclusions: Temporal resolution of the method was high enough to allow characterization of individual gate cycles and was primary limited by the sampling speed of the data recording device. Significant variation of mean gate ON/OFF lag time was found between different gating systems. For certain gating devices, individual gating cycle lag times can vary significantly. PMID:27277028

Comparing lagged linear correlation, lagged regression, Granger causality, and vector autoregression for uncovering associations in EHR data.

PubMed

Levine, Matthew E; Albers, David J; Hripcsak, George

2016-01-01

Time series analysis methods have been shown to reveal clinical and biological associations in data collected in the electronic health record. We wish to develop reliable high-throughput methods for identifying adverse drug effects that are easy to implement and produce readily interpretable results. To move toward this goal, we used univariate and multivariate lagged regression models to investigate associations between twenty pairs of drug orders and laboratory measurements. Multivariate lagged regression models exhibited higher sensitivity and specificity than univariate lagged regression in the 20 examples, and incorporating autoregressive terms for labs and drugs produced more robust signals in cases of known associations among the 20 example pairings. Moreover, including inpatient admission terms in the model attenuated the signals for some cases of unlikely associations, demonstrating how multivariate lagged regression models' explicit handling of context-based variables can provide a simple way to probe for health-care processes that confound analyses of EHR data.

The WS transform for the Kuramoto model with distributed amplitudes, phase lag and time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohe, M. A.

2017-12-01

We apply the Watanabe-Strogatz (WS) transform to a generalized Kuramoto model with distributed parameters describing the amplitude of oscillation, phase lag, and time delay at each node of the system. The model has global coupling and identical frequencies, but allows for repulsive interactions at arbitrary nodes leading to conformist-contrarian phenomena together with variable amplitude and time-delay effects. We show how to determine the initial values of the WS system for any initial conditions for the Kuramoto system, and investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the WS variables. For the case of zero time delay the possible asymptotic configurations are determined by the sign of a single parameter μ which measures whether or not the attractive nodes dominate the repulsive nodes. If μ>0 the system completely synchronizes from general initial conditions, whereas if μ<0 one of two types of phase-locked synchronization occurs, depending on the initial values, while for μ=0 periodic solutions can occur. For the case of arbitrary non-uniform time delays we derive a stability condition for completely synchronized solutions.

Simultaneous source and attenuation reconstruction in SPECT using ballistic and single scattering data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courdurier, M.; Monard, F.; Osses, A.; Romero, F.

2015-09-01

In medical single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging, we seek to simultaneously obtain the internal radioactive sources and the attenuation map using not only ballistic measurements but also first-order scattering measurements and assuming a very specific scattering regime. The problem is modeled using the radiative transfer equation by means of an explicit non-linear operator that gives the ballistic and scattering measurements as a function of the radioactive source and attenuation distributions. First, by differentiating this non-linear operator we obtain a linearized inverse problem. Then, under regularity hypothesis for the source distribution and attenuation map and considering small attenuations, we rigorously prove that the linear operator is invertible and we compute its inverse explicitly. This allows proof of local uniqueness for the non-linear inverse problem. Finally, using the previous inversion result for the linear operator, we propose a new type of iterative algorithm for simultaneous source and attenuation recovery for SPECT based on the Neumann series and a Newton-Raphson algorithm.

Ghost interactions in MEG/EEG source space: A note of caution on inter-areal coupling measures.

PubMed

Palva, J Matias; Wang, Sheng H; Palva, Satu; Zhigalov, Alexander; Monto, Simo; Brookes, Matthew J; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Jerbi, Karim

2018-06-01

When combined with source modeling, magneto- (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) can be used to study long-range interactions among cortical processes non-invasively. Estimation of such inter-areal connectivity is nevertheless hindered by instantaneous field spread and volume conduction, which artificially introduce linear correlations and impair source separability in cortical current estimates. To overcome the inflating effects of linear source mixing inherent to standard interaction measures, alternative phase- and amplitude-correlation based connectivity measures, such as imaginary coherence and orthogonalized amplitude correlation have been proposed. Being by definition insensitive to zero-lag correlations, these techniques have become increasingly popular in the identification of correlations that cannot be attributed to field spread or volume conduction. We show here, however, that while these measures are immune to the direct effects of linear mixing, they may still reveal large numbers of spurious false positive connections through field spread in the vicinity of true interactions. This fundamental problem affects both region-of-interest-based analyses and all-to-all connectome mappings. Most importantly, beyond defining and illustrating the problem of spurious, or "ghost" interactions, we provide a rigorous quantification of this effect through extensive simulations. Additionally, we further show that signal mixing also significantly limits the separability of neuronal phase and amplitude correlations. We conclude that spurious correlations must be carefully considered in connectivity analyses in MEG/EEG source space even when using measures that are immune to zero-lag correlations. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heat-related illness in China, summer of 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Shaohua; Huang, Cunrui; Bai, Li; Chu, Cordia; Liu, Qiyong

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events have occurred more frequently in China in recent years, leading to serious impacts on human life and the health care system. To identify the characteristics of individuals with heat-related illnesses in China during the summer of 2013, we collected the data from the Heat-related Illness Surveillance System in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). A total of 5758 cases were reported in the summer of 2013, mostly concentrated in urban areas around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. We found a difference in age distribution of percentage of deaths from heat-related illness between males and females. Severe cases in males mostly occurred in the age group 45-74 years but in females mostly in the age group over 75. A distributed lag non-linear model had been used to identify population vulnerabilities in Ningbo and Chongqing. The results show that there was a clear positive relationship between maximum temperature and heat-related illness, and the heat effect was nonlinear and could last for 3 days. The elderly and males in the range of 45-64 years old might be the most vulnerable people of heat-related illness in China. We also highlighted some deficiencies of the surveillance system, such that the reported data were not accurate, comprehensive, or timely enough at this stage.

Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project

PubMed Central

de’ Donato, Francesca K.; Leone, Michela; Scortichini, Matteo; De Sario, Manuela; Katsouyanni, Klea; Lanki, Timo; Basagaña, Xavier; Ballester, Ferran; Åström, Christofer; Paldy, Anna; Pascal, Mathilde; Gasparrini, Antonio; Menne, Bettina; Michelozzi, Paola

2015-01-01

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature–mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996–2002 and 2004–2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources. PMID:26670239

Association between Precipitation Upstream of a Drinking Water Utility and Nurse Advice Calls Relating to Acute Gastrointestinal Illnesses

PubMed Central

Tornevi, Andreas; Axelsson, Gösta; Forsberg, Bertil

2013-01-01

Background The River Göta Älv is a source of fresh-water for the City of Gothenburg (Sweden). We recently identified a clear association between upstream precipitation and indicator bacteria concentrations in the river water outside the intake to the drinking water utility. This study aimed to determine if variation in the incidence of acute gastrointestinal illnesses is associated with upstream precipitation. Methods We acquired data, covering 1494 days, on the daily number of telephone calls to the nurse advice line from citizens in Gothenburg living in areas with Göta Älv as a fresh-water supply. We separated calls relating to gastrointestinal illnesses from other medical concerns, and analyzed their association with precipitation using a distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal patterns and covariates. We used a 0–21-day lag period for precipitation to account for drinking water delivery times and incubation periods of waterborne pathogens. Results The study period contained 25,659 nurse advice calls relating to gastrointestinal illnesses. Heavy rainfall was associated with increased calls the same day and around 5–6 days later. Consecutive days of wet weather were also found to be associated with an increase in the daily number of gastrointestinal concerns. No associations were identified between precipitation and nurse advice calls relating to other medical concerns. Conclusion An increase in nurse advice calls relating to gastrointestinal illnesses around 5–6 days after heavy rainfall is consistent with a hypothesis that the cause could be related to drinking water due to insufficient barriers in the drinking water production, suggesting the need for improved drinking water treatment. PMID:23875009

Extreme temperatures and out-of-hospital coronary deaths in six large Chinese cities.

PubMed

Chen, Renjie; Li, Tiantian; Cai, Jing; Yan, Meilin; Zhao, Zhuohui; Kan, Haidong

2014-12-01

The seasonal trend of out-of-hospital coronary death (OHCD) and sudden cardiac death has been observed, but whether extreme temperature serves as a risk factor is rarely investigated. We therefore aimed to evaluate the impact of extreme temperatures on OHCDs in China. We obtained death records of 126,925 OHCDs from six large Chinese cities (Harbin, Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) during the period 2009-2011. The short-term associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were analysed with time-series methods in each city, using generalised additive Poisson regression models. We specified distributed lag non-linear models in studying the delayed effects of extreme temperature. We then applied Bayesian hierarchical models to combine the city-specific effect estimates. The associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were almost U-shaped or J-shaped. The pooled relative risks (RRs) of extreme cold temperatures over the lags 0-14 days comparing the 1st and 25th centile temperatures were 1.49 (95% posterior interval (PI) 1.26-1.76); the pooled RRs of extreme hot temperatures comparing the 99th and 75th centile temperatures were 1.53 (95% PI 1.27-1.84) for OHCDs. The RRs of extreme temperature on OHCD were higher if the patients with coronary heart disease were old, male and less educated. This multicity epidemiological study suggested that both extreme cold and hot temperatures posed significant risks on OHCDs, and might have important public health implications for the prevention of OHCD or sudden cardiac death. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Association between precipitation upstream of a drinking water utility and nurse advice calls relating to acute gastrointestinal illnesses.

PubMed

Tornevi, Andreas; Axelsson, Gösta; Forsberg, Bertil

2013-01-01

The River Göta Älv is a source of fresh-water for the City of Gothenburg (Sweden). We recently identified a clear association between upstream precipitation and indicator bacteria concentrations in the river water outside the intake to the drinking water utility. This study aimed to determine if variation in the incidence of acute gastrointestinal illnesses is associated with upstream precipitation. We acquired data, covering 1494 days, on the daily number of telephone calls to the nurse advice line from citizens in Gothenburg living in areas with Göta Älv as a fresh-water supply. We separated calls relating to gastrointestinal illnesses from other medical concerns, and analyzed their association with precipitation using a distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal patterns and covariates. We used a 0-21-day lag period for precipitation to account for drinking water delivery times and incubation periods of waterborne pathogens. The study period contained 25,659 nurse advice calls relating to gastrointestinal illnesses. Heavy rainfall was associated with increased calls the same day and around 5-6 days later. Consecutive days of wet weather were also found to be associated with an increase in the daily number of gastrointestinal concerns. No associations were identified between precipitation and nurse advice calls relating to other medical concerns. An increase in nurse advice calls relating to gastrointestinal illnesses around 5-6 days after heavy rainfall is consistent with a hypothesis that the cause could be related to drinking water due to insufficient barriers in the drinking water production, suggesting the need for improved drinking water treatment.

Longitudinal development of number line estimation and mathematics performance in primary school children.

PubMed

Friso-van den Bos, Ilona; Kroesbergen, Evelyn H; Van Luit, Johannes E H; Xenidou-Dervou, Iro; Jonkman, Lisa M; Van der Schoot, Menno; Van Lieshout, Ernest C D M

2015-06-01

Children's ability to relate number to a continuous quantity abstraction visualized as a number line is widely accepted to be predictive of mathematics achievement. However, a debate has emerged with respect to how children's placements are distributed on this number line across development. In the current study, different models were applied to children's longitudinal number placement data to get more insight into the development of number line representations in kindergarten and early primary school years. In addition, longitudinal developmental relations between number line placements and mathematical achievement, measured with a national test of mathematics, were investigated using cross-lagged panel modeling. A group of 442 children participated in a 3-year longitudinal study (ages 5-8 years) in which they completed a number-to-position task every 6 months. Individual number line placements were fitted to various models, of which a one-anchor power model provided the best fit for many of the placements at a younger age (5 or 6 years) and a two-anchor power model provided better fit for many of the children at an older age (7 or 8 years). The number of children who made linear placements also grew with age. Cross-lagged panel analyses indicated that the best fit was provided with a model in which number line acuity and mathematics performance were mutually predictive of each other rather than models in which one ability predicted the other in a non-reciprocal way. This indicates that number line acuity should not be seen as a predictor of math but that both skills influence each other during the developmental process. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Repetition and lag effects in movement recognition.

PubMed

Hall, C R; Buckolz, E

1982-03-01

Whether repetition and lag improve the recognition of movement patterns was investigated. Recognition memory was tested for one repetition, two-repetitions massed, and two-repetitions distributed with movement patterns at lags of 3, 5, 7, and 13. Recognition performance was examined both immediately afterwards and following a 48 hour delay. Both repetition and lag effects failed to be demonstrated, providing some support for the claim that memory is unaffected by repetition at a constant level of processing (Craik & Lockhart, 1972). There was, as expected, a significant decrease in recognition memory following the retention interval, but this appeared unrelated to repetition or lag.

Calculation of the Rate of Combustion of a Metallized Composite Solid Propellant with Allowance for the Size Distribution of Agglomerates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poryazov, V. A.; Krainov, A. Yu.

2016-05-01

A physicomathematical model of combustion of a metallized composite solid propellant based on ammonium perchlorate has been presented. The model takes account of the thermal effect of decomposition of a condensed phase (c phase), convection, diffusion, the exothermal chemical reaction in a gas phase, the heating and combustion of aluminum particles in the gas flow, and the velocity lag of the particles behind the gas. The influence of the granulometric composition of aluminum particles escaping from the combustion surface on the linear rate of combustion has been investigated. It has been shown that information not only on the kinetics of chemical reactions in the gas phase, but also on the granulometric composition of aluminum particles escaping from the surface of the c phase into the gas, is of importance for determination of the linear rate of combustion.

TESTING THE PROPAGATING FLUCTUATIONS MODEL WITH A LONG, GLOBAL ACCRETION DISK SIMULATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogg, J Drew; Reynolds, Christopher S.

2016-07-20

The broadband variability of many accreting systems displays characteristic structures; log-normal flux distributions, root-mean square (rms)-flux relations, and long inter-band lags. These characteristics are usually interpreted as inward propagating fluctuations of the mass accretion rate in an accretion disk driven by stochasticity of the angular momentum transport mechanism. We present the first analysis of propagating fluctuations in a long-duration, high-resolution, global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of a geometrically thin ( h / r ≈ 0.1) accretion disk around a black hole. While the dynamical-timescale turbulent fluctuations in the Maxwell stresses are too rapid to drive radially coherent fluctuations in themore » accretion rate, we find that the low-frequency quasi-periodic dynamo action introduces low-frequency fluctuations in the Maxwell stresses, which then drive the propagating fluctuations. Examining both the mass accretion rate and emission proxies, we recover log-normality, linear rms-flux relations, and radial coherence that would produce inter-band lags. Hence, we successfully relate and connect the phenomenology of propagating fluctuations to modern MHD accretion disk theory.« less

Semi-crystalline morphologies of linear and cyclic poly(ɛ-caprolactones) in the diffusion-limited film thickness regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, Giovanni; Bergeson, Amelia; Haque, Farihah; Grayson, Scott; Albert, Julie

Thin and ultrathin films of semi-crystalline polymers have been studied for decades due to their far-reaching applications including opto-electronic materials and biological studies of drug delivery and cell adhesion. This body of work has focused on every aspect of crystallization, from the fundamental thermodynamics and kinetics of crystal growth to methods for affecting crystalline morphologies via blending with other polymers. Due to significant synthetic challenges, one area where progress has lagged behind is the study of non-linear architectures, especially ring polymers. However, pioneering work by polymer chemists around the world has closed that gap, and we are beginning to observe important differences between ring and linear polymers in bulk materials. As a complement to those advances, this work aims to compare the morphologies of linear and cyclic poly(ɛ-caprolactones) (PCL) observed in heavily-confined ultrathin films where crystal growth is diffusion-limited. Understanding how confinement effects alter morphology will provide invaluable insight into differences in crystal growth as a function of molecular architecture.

Analysis of Flow and Transport in non-Gaussian Heterogeneous Formations Using a Generalized Sub-Gaussian Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Neuman, S. P.

2016-12-01

Environmental quantities such as log hydraulic conductivity (or transmissivity), Y(x) = ln K(x), and their spatial (or temporal) increments, ΔY, are known to be generally non-Gaussian. Documented evidence of such behavior includes symmetry of increment distributions at all separation scales (or lags) between incremental values of Y with sharp peaks and heavy tails that decay asymptotically as lag increases. This statistical scaling occurs in porous as well as fractured media characterized by either one or a hierarchy of spatial correlation scales. In hierarchical media one observes a range of additional statistical ΔY scaling phenomena, all of which are captured comprehensibly by a novel generalized sub-Gaussian (GSG) model. In this model Y forms a mixture Y(x) = U(x) G(x) of single- or multi-scale Gaussian processes G having random variances, U being a non-negative subordinator independent of G. Elsewhere we developed ways to generate unconditional and conditional random realizations of isotropic or anisotropic GSG fields which can be embedded in numerical Monte Carlo flow and transport simulations. Here we present and discuss expressions for probability distribution functions of Y and ΔY as well as their lead statistical moments. We then focus on a simple flow setting of mean uniform steady state flow in an unbounded, two-dimensional domain, exploring ways in which non-Gaussian heterogeneity affects stochastic flow and transport descriptions. Our expressions represent (a) lead order autocovariance and cross-covariance functions of hydraulic head, velocity and advective particle displacement as well as (b) analogues of preasymptotic and asymptotic Fickian dispersion coefficients. We compare them with corresponding expressions developed in the literature for Gaussian Y.

Impacts of temperature change on ambulance dispatches and seasonal effect modification.

PubMed

Cheng, Jian; Xu, Zhiwei; Zhao, Desheng; Xie, Mingyu; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Li, Kesheng; Su, Hong

2016-12-01

Ambulance dispatch is a proxy of acute health outcomes, and growing epidemiological evidence documented its relation to extreme temperature events. Research, however, on short-term temperature change and ambulance dispatches is scarce. We aimed to investigate the effect of short-term temperature change on ambulance dispatches and potential modification by season. Daily data on ambulance dispatch and weather factors were collected in Huainan, a Chinese inland city from December 2011 through December 2013. A Poison generalized linear regression model combined with distributed lag nonlinear model was constructed to examine the association of temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) with ambulance dispatches. The effect modification by season was also examined. There were 48,700 ambulance attendances during the study period. A statistically significant association of TCN with ambulance dispatches was observed. Temperature rise between neighboring days (TCN > 0) was associated with elevated adverse risk of ambulance dispatches, and the effects appeared to be acute (lag0, on the current day) and could last for at least a week, while temperature drop between neighboring days (TCN < 0) had a protective effect. For a 1 °C increase of TCN at lag0 and lag06 (on the 7-day moving average), the risk of ambulance dispatches increased by 2 % (95 % CI 1-3 %) and 7 (95 % CI 1-13 %), respectively. Extreme TCN increase (95th percentile, 3.3 °C vs. 0 °C) at lag0 and lag05 was accompanied by 6 (95 % CI 3-8 %) and 27 % (95 % CI 12-44 %) increase in ambulance dispatches. Ambulance dispatches were more vulnerable to extremely great temperature rise in summer and autumn. TCN was adopted for the first time to quantify the impact of short-term temperature change on ambulance dispatches. Temperature drop between neighboring days (TCN < 0) had a protective effect on ambulance dispatches, while temperature rise between neighboring days (TCN > 0) could acutely trigger the increase in ambulance dispatches, and TCN effect differs by season.

Characterization of doctor-patient communication using heartbeat nonlinear dynamics: A preliminary study using Lagged Poincaré Plots.

PubMed

Nardelli, M; Del Piccolo, L; Danzi, Op; Perlini, C; Tedeschi, F; Greco, A; Scilingo, Ep; Valenza, G

2017-07-01

Emphatic doctor-patient communication has been associated with an improved psycho-physiological well-being involving cardiovascular and neuroendocrine responses. Nevertheless, a comprehensive assessment of heartbeat linear and nonlinear/complex dynamics throughout the communication of a life-threatening disease has not been performed yet. To this extent, we here study heart rate variability (HRV) series gathered from 17 subjects while watching a video where an oncologist discloses the diagnosis of a cancer metastasis to a patient. Further 17 subjects watched the same video including additional affective emphatic contents. For the assessment of the two groups, linear heartbeat dynamics was quantified through measures defined in the time and frequency domains, whereas nonlinear/complex dynamics referred to measures of entropy, and combined Lagged Poincare Plots (LPP) and symbolic analyses. Considering differences between the beginning and the end of the video, results from non-parametric statistical tests demonstrated that the group watching emphatic contents showed HRV changes in the LF/HF ratio exclusively. Conversely, the group watching the purely informative video showed changes in vagal activity (i.e., HF power), LF/HF ratio, as well as LPP measures. Additionally, a Support Vector Machine algorithm including HRV nonlinear/complex information was able to automatically discern between groups with an accuracy of 76.47%. We therefore propose the use of heartbeat nonlinear/complex dynamics to objectively assess the empathy level of healthy women.

Short-term effects of air temperature on mortality and effect modification by air pollution in three cities of Bavaria, Germany: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Breitner, Susanne; Wolf, Kathrin; Devlin, Robert B; Diaz-Sanchez, David; Peters, Annette; Schneider, Alexandra

2014-07-01

Air temperature has been shown to be associated with mortality; however, only very few studies have been conducted in Germany. This study examined the association between daily air temperature and cause-specific mortality in Bavaria, Southern Germany. Moreover, we investigated effect modification by age and ambient air pollution. We obtained data from Munich, Nuremberg as well as Augsburg, Germany, for the period 1990 to 2006. Data included daily cause-specific death counts, mean daily meteorology and air pollution concentrations (particulate matter with a diameter<10 μm [PM10] and maximum 8-h ozone). We used Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models adjusting for long-term trend, calendar effects, and meteorological factors. Air pollutant concentrations were categorized into three levels, and an interaction term was included to quantify potential effect modification of the air temperature effects. The temperature-mortality relationships were non-linear for all cause-specific mortality categories showing U- or J-shaped curves. An increase from the 90th (20.0 °C) to the 99th percentile (24.8 °C) of 2-day average temperature led to an increase in non-accidental mortality by 11.4% (95% CI: 7.6%-15.3%), whereas a decrease from the 10th (-1.0 °C) to the 1st percentile (-7.5 °C) in the 15-day average temperature resulted in an increase of 6.2% (95% CI: 1.8%-10.8%). The very old were found to be most susceptible to heat effects. Results also suggested some effect modification by ozone, but not for PM10. Results indicate that both very low and very high air temperature increase cause-specific mortality in Bavaria. Results also pointed to the importance of considering effect modification by age and ozone in assessing temperature effects on mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

LAG-3 in Non-Small-cell Lung Cancer: Expression in Primary Tumors and Metastatic Lymph Nodes Is Associated With Improved Survival.

PubMed

Hald, Sigurd M; Rakaee, Mehrdad; Martinez, Inigo; Richardsen, Elin; Al-Saad, Samer; Paulsen, Erna-Elise; Blix, Egil Støre; Kilvaer, Thomas; Andersen, Sigve; Busund, Lill-Tove; Bremnes, Roy M; Donnem, Tom

2018-05-01

Lymphocyte activation gene-3 (LAG-3) is an immune checkpoint receptor and a putative therapeutic target in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We explored the prognostic effect of LAG-3 + tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in primary tumors and metastatic lymph nodes in NSCLC and its potential for inclusion in an immunoscore, supplementing the TNM classification. Primary tumor tissue from 553 stage I-IIIB NSCLC patients and 143 corresponding metastatic lymph nodes were collected. The expression of LAG-3 was evaluated by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. On univariate analysis, LAG-3 + TILs in the intraepithelial and stromal compartments of primary tumors and in the intraepithelial and extraepithelial compartments of metastatic lymph nodes were associated with improved disease-specific survival (DSS). On multivariate analysis, stromal LAG-3 + TILs were a significant independent predictor of improved DSS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43-0.82; P = .002). Stromal LAG-3 + TILs did not have prognostic impact across all pathologic stages. In the metastatic lymph nodes, intraepithelial (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38-0.99; P = .049) and extraepithelial (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.29-0.70; P < .001) LAG-3 + TILs were independently associated with favorable DSS. LAG-3 + TILs are an independent positive prognostic factor in stage I-IIIB NSCLC. LAG-3 in metastatic lymph nodes is a candidate marker for an immunoscore in NSCLC. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new model of strabismic amblyopia: Loss of spatial acuity due to increased temporal dispersion of geniculate X-cell afferents on to cortical neurons.

PubMed

Crewther, D P; Crewther, S G

2015-09-01

Although the neural locus of strabismic amblyopia has been shown to lie at the first site of binocular integration, first in cat and then in primate, an adequate mechanism is still lacking. Here we hypothesise that increased temporal dispersion of LGN X-cell afferents driven by the deviating eye onto single cortical neurons may provide a neural mechanism for strabismic amblyopia. This idea was investigated via single cell extracellular recordings of 93 X and 50 Y type LGN neurons from strabismic and normal cats. Both X and Y neurons driven by the non-deviating eye showed shorter latencies than those driven by either the strabismic or normal eyes. Also the mean latency difference between X and Y neurons was much greater for the strabismic cells compared with the other two groups. The incidence of lagged X-cells driven by the deviating eye of the strabismic cats was higher than that of LGN X-cells from normal animals. Remarkably, none of the cells recorded from the laminae driven by the non-deviating eye were of the lagged class. A simple computational model was constructed in which a mixture of lagged and non-lagged afferents converge on to single cortical neurons. Model cut-off spatial frequencies to a moving grating stimulus were sensitive to the temporal dispersion of the geniculate afferents. Thus strabismic amblyopia could be viewed as a lack of developmental tuning of geniculate lags for neurons driven by the amblyopic eye. Monocular control of fixation by the non-deviating eye is associated with reduced incidence of lagged neurons, suggesting that in normal vision, lagged neurons might play a role in maintaining binocular connections for cortical neurons. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daily Stress and Emotional Well-Being among Asian American Adolescents: Same-Day, Lagged, and Chronic Associations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiang, Lisa; Buchanan, Christy M.

2014-01-01

Daily-diary data from 180 Asian American 9th-10th graders (58% female, 75% second generation; "M" age = 14.97 years) were used to investigate how family, school, and peer stress are each associated with same-day and next-day (lagged) well-being, and vice versa. Hierarchical linear modeling provided support for reciprocal links when…

Short-term effects of air temperature on plasma metabolite concentrations in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hampel, Regina, E-mail: regina.hampel@helmholtz-mu

Background: Epidemiological studies have shown associations between air temperature and cardiovascular health outcomes. Metabolic dysregulation might also play a role in the development of cardiovascular disease. Objectives: To investigate short-term temperature effects on metabolites related to cardiovascular disease. Methods: Concentrations of 45 acylcarnitines, 15 amino acids, ketone bodies and total free fatty acids were available in 2869 participants from the CATHeterization GENetics cohort recruited at the Duke University Cardiac Catheterization Clinic (Durham, NC) between 2001 and 2007. Ten metabolites were selected based on quality criteria and cluster analysis. Daily averages of meteorological variables were obtained from the North American Regionalmore » Reanalysis project. Immediate, lagged, and cumulative temperature effects on metabolite concentrations were analyzed using (piecewise) linear regression models. Results: Linear temperature effects were found for glycine, C16-OH:C14:1-DC, and aspartic acid/asparagine. A 5 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 1.8% [95%-confidence interval: 0.3%; 3.3%] increase in glycine (5-day average), a 3.2% [0.1%; 6.3%] increase in C16-OH:C14:1-DC (lag of four days), and a −1.4% [−2.4%; −0.3%] decrease in aspartic acid/asparagine (lag of two days). Non-linear temperature effects were observed for alanine and total ketone bodies with breakpoint of 4 °C and 20 °C, respectively. Both a 5 °C decrease in temperature on colder days (<4 °C)and a 5 °C increase in temperature on warmer days (≥4 °C) were associated with a four day delayed increase in alanine by 6.6% [11.7; 1.8%] and 1.9% [0.3%; 3.4%], respectively. For ketone bodies we found immediate (0-day lag) increases of 4.2% [−0.5%; 9.1%] and 12.3% [0.1%; 26.0%] associated with 5 °C decreases on colder (<20 °C) days and 5 °C increases on warmer days (≥20 °C), respectively. Conclusions: We observed multiple effects of air temperature on metabolites several of which are reported to be involved in cardiovascular disease. Our findings might help to understand the link between air temperature and cardiovascular disease. - Highlights: • Certain metabolites are assumed to be novel biomarkers for cardiovascular disease. • First study investigating associations between air temperature and metabolites. • Short-term effects of temperature on amino acids, ketone bodies and acylcarnitines. • Our findings may help to understand the link between temperature and cardiovascular disease.« less

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E.; Grundstein, Andrew J.; Winquist, Andrea

2017-01-01

Background: Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves’ impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. Objectives: We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993–2012. Methods: Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of ≥2 consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945–2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Results: Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02–1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00–1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Conclusions: Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44 PMID:28599264

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012.

PubMed

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E; Grundstein, Andrew J; Winquist, Andrea; Chang, Howard H

2017-05-31

Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves' impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993-2012. Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945-2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00-1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44.

Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation: bootstrap and simulation methods

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommended annual occupational dose limit is 20 mSv. Cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation in 1945 was analysed previously, using a latency model with non-linear dose response. Questions were raised regarding statistical inference with this model. Methods Cancers with over 100 deaths in the 0 - 20 mSv subcohort of the 1950-1990 Life Span Study are analysed with Poisson regression models incorporating latency, allowing linear and non-linear dose response. Bootstrap percentile and Bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) methods and simulation of the Likelihood Ratio Test lead to Confidence Intervals for Excess Relative Risk (ERR) and tests against the linear model. Results The linear model shows significant large, positive values of ERR for liver and urinary cancers at latencies from 37 - 43 years. Dose response below 20 mSv is strongly non-linear at the optimal latencies for the stomach (11.89 years), liver (36.9), lung (13.6), leukaemia (23.66), and pancreas (11.86) and across broad latency ranges. Confidence Intervals for ERR are comparable using Bootstrap and Likelihood Ratio Test methods and BCa 95% Confidence Intervals are strictly positive across latency ranges for all 5 cancers. Similar risk estimates for 10 mSv (lagged dose) are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv data for the stomach, liver, lung and leukaemia. Dose response for the latter 3 cancers is significantly non-linear in the 5 - 500 mSv range. Conclusion Liver and urinary cancer mortality risk is significantly raised using a latency model with linear dose response. A non-linear model is strongly superior for the stomach, liver, lung, pancreas and leukaemia. Bootstrap and Likelihood-based confidence intervals are broadly comparable and ERR is strictly positive by bootstrap methods for all 5 cancers. Except for the pancreas, similar estimates of latency and risk from 10 mSv are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv subcohorts. Large and significant cancer risks for Japanese survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation from the atomic bombs in 1945 cast doubt on the ICRP recommended annual occupational dose limit. PMID:20003238

Modeling Inflation Using a Non-Equilibrium Equation of Exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, Robert G.

2013-01-01

Inflation is a change in the prices of goods that takes place without changes in the actual values of those goods. The Equation of Exchange, formulated clearly in a seminal paper by Irving Fisher in 1911, establishes an equilibrium relationship between the price index P (also known as "inflation"), the economy's aggregate output Q (also known as "the real gross domestic product"), the amount of money available for spending M (also known as "the money supply"), and the rate at which money is reused V (also known as "the velocity of circulation of money"). This paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can cause these factors to change and how those causes might be controlled, then develops a quantitative model of inflation based on a non-equilibrium version of the Equation of Exchange. Causal relationships are different from equations in that the effects of changes in the causal variables take time to play out-often significant amounts of time. In the model described here, wages track prices, but only after a distributed lag. Prices change whenever the money supply, aggregate output, or the velocity of circulation of money change, but only after a distributed lag. Similarly, the money supply depends on the supplies of domestic and foreign money, which depend on the monetary base and a variety of foreign transactions, respectively. The spreading of delays mitigates the shocks of sudden changes to important inputs, but the most important aspect of this model is that delays, which often have dramatic consequences in dynamic systems, are explicitly incorporated.macroeconomics, inflation, equation of exchange, non-equilibrium, Athena Project

Oxidation of monohydric phenol substrates by tyrosinase. An oximetric study.

PubMed

Naish-Byfield, S; Riley, P A

1992-11-15

The purity of commercially available mushroom tyrosinase was investigated by non-denaturing PAGE. Most of the protein in the preparation migrated as a single band under these conditions. This band contained both tyrosinase and dopa oxidase activity. No other activity of either classification was found in the preparation. Oxygen consumption by tyrosinase during oxidation of the monohydric phenol substrates tyrosine and 4-hydroxyanisole (4HA) was monitored by oximetry in order to determine the stoichiometry of the reactions. For complete oxidation, the molar ratio of oxygen: 4HA was 1:1. Under identical conditions, oxidation of tyrosine required 1.5 mol of oxygen/mol of tyrosine. The additional oxygen uptake during tyrosine oxidation is due to the internal cyclization of dopaquinone to form cyclodopa, which undergoes a redox reaction with dopaquinone to form dopachrome and dopa, which is then oxidized by the enzyme, leading to an additional 0.5 mol of oxygen/mol of original substrate. Oxygen consumption for complete oxidation of 200 nmol of 4HA was constant over a range of concentrations of tyrosinase of 33-330 units/ml of substrate. The maximum rate of reaction was directly proportional to the concentration of tyrosinase, whereas the length of the lag phase decreased non-linearly with increasing tyrosinase concentration. Activation of the enzyme by exposure to citrate was not seen, nor was the lag phase abolished by exposure of the enzyme to low pH. Michaelis-Menten analysis of tyrosinase in which the lag phase is abolished by pre-exposure of the enzyme to a low concentration of dithiothreitol gave Km values for tyrosine and 4HA of 153 and 20 microM respectively.

Regulation by a TGFβ-ROCK-actomyosin axis secures a non-linear lumen expansion that is essential for tubulogenesis.

PubMed

Denker, Elsa; Sehring, Ivonne M; Dong, Bo; Audisso, Julien; Mathiesen, Birthe; Jiang, Di

2015-05-01

Regulation of lumen growth is crucial to ensure the correct morphology, dimensions and function of a tubular structure. How this is controlled is still poorly understood. During Ciona intestinalis notochord tubulogenesis, single extracellular lumen pockets grow between pairs of cells and eventually fuse into a continuous tube. Here, we show that lumen growth exhibits a lag phase, during which the luminal membranes continue to grow but the expansion of the apical/lateral junction pauses for ∼30 min. Inhibition of non-muscle myosin II activity abolishes this lag phase and accelerates expansion of the junction, resulting in the formation of narrower lumen pockets partially fusing into a tube of reduced size. Disruption of actin dynamics, conversely, causes a reversal of apical/lateral junction expansion, leading to a dramatic conversion of extracellular lumen pockets to intracellular vacuoles and a tubulogenesis arrest. The onset of the lag phase is correlated with a de novo accumulation of actin that forms a contractile ring at the apical/lateral junctions. This actin ring actively restricts the opening of the lumen in the transverse plane, allowing sufficient time for lumen growth via an osmotic process along the longitudinal dimension. The dynamics of lumen formation is controlled by the TGFβ pathway and ROCK activity. Our findings reveal a TGFβ-ROCK-actomyosin contractility axis that coordinates lumen growth, which is powered by the dynamics of luminal osmolarity. The regulatory system may function like a sensor/checkpoint that responds to the change of luminal pressure and fine-tunes actomyosin contractility to effect proper tubulogenesis. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Associations between extreme precipitation and acute gastro-intestinal illness due to cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in an urban Canadian drinking water system (1997-2009).

PubMed

Chhetri, Bimal K; Takaro, Tim K; Balshaw, Robert; Otterstatter, Michael; Mak, Sunny; Lem, Marcus; Zubel, Marc; Lysyshyn, Mark; Clarkson, Len; Edwards, Joanne; Fleury, Manon D; Henderson, Sarah B; Galanis, Eleni

2017-10-01

Drinking water related infections are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Understanding the current links between these infections and environmental factors is vital to understand and reduce the future burden of illness. We investigated the relationship between weekly reported cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis (n = 7,422), extreme precipitation (>90th percentile), drinking water turbidity, and preceding dry periods in a drinking water system located in greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1997-2009) using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality, secular trend, and the effect of holidays on reporting. We found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis 4-6 weeks after extreme precipitation. The effect was greater following a dry period. Similarly, extreme precipitation led to significantly increased turbidity only after prolonged dry periods. Our results suggest that the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis increases with extreme precipitation, and that the effects are more pronounced after a prolonged dry period. Given that extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with climate change, it is important to further understand the risks from these events, develop planning tools, and build resilience to these future risks.

Effects of Air Pollutant Exposure on Acute Myocardial Infarction, According to Gender.

PubMed

Tuan, Tássia Soldi; Venâncio, Taís Siqueira; Nascimento, Luiz Fernando Costa

2016-09-01

There is evidence of the effects of air pollution on hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases, including myocardial infarction. To estimate the association between exposure to air pollutants and hospital admissions due to myocardial infarction according to gender, between January 1st 2012 and December 31st 2013, in São Jose dos Campos-SP. An ecological time series study was carried out with daily data of admissions due to AMI, pollutants CO, O3, PM10, SO2, and NO2, according to gender. We used the Poisson regression generalized linear model to estimate the relative risks of hospital admissions with lags of 0-5 days, adjusted for temperature, humidity, seasonality and days of the week. There were 1837 admissions for ischemic heart diseases, with 636 women and 1201 men. For females, the risks were significant for CO in lag 0 (RR = 1,09), lag1 (RR = 1,08) and lag 5 (RR = 1,10) and SO2 in lag 0 (RR = 1,10) and 3 (RR = 1,09). For men there was significance of the CO in, lag 3 and lag 5 (RR = 1,05). There was significance, regardless of gender, for CO at lag 1 (RR = 1,05) and lag 5 (RR = 1,07) and lag 0 for SO2 (RR = 1,06). The data presented show the important role of CO and SO2 in the genesis of myocardial infarction admissions, and responses to pollutant exposure are different if analyzed by gender and together - hence the importance of a stratified analyses. Existem evidências sobre os efeitos da poluição do ar nas internações por doenças cardiovasculares, entre elas o infarto do miocárdio. Estimar a associação entre exposição a poluentes do ar e internações por infarto segundo gêneros, entre 01 de Janeiro de 2012 e 31 de Dezembro de 2013, em São José dos Campos - SP. Estudo ecológico de série temporal com dados diários de internações por IAM dos poluentes CO, O3, PM10, SO2, NO2, segundo gêneros. Utilizou-se modelo linear generalizado da Regressão de Poisson para estimar os riscos relativos para internações com defasagens de 0 a 5 dias, ajustados por temperatura, umidade, sazonalidade e dias da semana. Foram 1837 internações por doenças isquêmicas do coração, sendo 636 mulheres e 1201 homens. Para o gênero feminino, os riscos foram significativos para o CO nos lag 0 (RR = 1,09), lag1 (RR = 1,08) e lag 5 (RR = 1,10) e para o SO2 no lag 0 (RR = 1,10) e 3 (RR = 1,09). Para o gênero masculino houve significância para o CO no lag 3 e lag 5 (RR = 1,05). Sem distinção de gênero houve significância para o CO no lag 1 (RR = 1,05) e lag 5 (RR = 1,07) e no lag 0 para o SO2 (RR = 1,06). Os dados apresentados mostram o importante papel do CO e do SO2 na gênese das internações por infarto e que as respostas à exposição aos poluentes são diferentes se analisadas por sexo e em conjunto, daí a importância de se estratificarem as análises.

Technical Note: High temporal resolution characterization of gating response time

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiersma, Rodney D., E-mail: rwiersma@uchicago.edu; McCabe, Bradley P.; Belcher, Andrew H.

2016-06-15

Purpose: Low temporal latency between a gating ON/OFF signal and the LINAC beam ON/OFF during respiratory gating is critical for patient safety. Here the authors describe a novel method to precisely measure gating lag times at high temporal resolutions. Methods: A respiratory gating simulator with an oscillating platform was modified to include a linear potentiometer for position measurement. A photon diode was placed at linear accelerator isocenter for beam output measurement. The output signals of the potentiometer and diode were recorded simultaneously at 2500 Hz with an analog to digital converter for four different commercial respiratory gating systems. The ONmore » and OFF of the beam signal were located and compared to the expected gating window for both phase and position based gating and the temporal lag times extracted. Results: For phase based gating, a real-time position management (RPM) infrared marker tracking system with a single camera and a RPM system with a stereoscopic camera were measured to have mean gate ON/OFF lag times of 98/90 and 86/44 ms, respectively. For position based gating, an AlignRT 3D surface system and a Calypso magnetic fiducial tracking system were measured to have mean gate ON/OFF lag times of 356/529 and 209/60 ms, respectively. Conclusions: Temporal resolution of the method was high enough to allow characterization of individual gate cycles and was primary limited by the sampling speed of the data recording device. Significant variation of mean gate ON/OFF lag time was found between different gating systems. For certain gating devices, individual gating cycle lag times can vary significantly.« less

A heteroscedastic generalized linear model with a non-normal speed factor for responses and response times.

PubMed

Molenaar, Dylan; Bolsinova, Maria

2017-05-01

In generalized linear modelling of responses and response times, the observed response time variables are commonly transformed to make their distribution approximately normal. A normal distribution for the transformed response times is desirable as it justifies the linearity and homoscedasticity assumptions in the underlying linear model. Past research has, however, shown that the transformed response times are not always normal. Models have been developed to accommodate this violation. In the present study, we propose a modelling approach for responses and response times to test and model non-normality in the transformed response times. Most importantly, we distinguish between non-normality due to heteroscedastic residual variances, and non-normality due to a skewed speed factor. In a simulation study, we establish parameter recovery and the power to separate both effects. In addition, we apply the model to a real data set. © 2017 The Authors. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.

Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

2017-04-01

Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger-)causes vegetation dynamics in most regions globally. More specifically, water availability is the most dominant vegetation driver, being the dominant vegetation driver in 54% of the vegetated surface. Furthermore, our results show that precipitation and soil moisture have prolonged impacts on vegetation in semiarid regions, with up to 10% of additional explained variance on the vegetation dynamics occurring three months later. Finally, hydro-climatic extremes seem to have a remarkable impact on vegetation, since they also explain up to 10% of additional variance of vegetation in certain regions despite their infrequent occurrence. References [1] Papagiannopoulou, C., Miralles, D. G., Verhoest, N. E. C., Dorigo, W. A., and Waegeman, W.: A non-linear Granger causality framework to investigate climate-vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-266, in review, 2016.

From neurons to circuits: linear estimation of local field potentials.

PubMed

Rasch, Malte; Logothetis, Nikos K; Kreiman, Gabriel

2009-11-04

Extracellular physiological recordings are typically separated into two frequency bands: local field potentials (LFPs) (a circuit property) and spiking multiunit activity (MUA). Recently, there has been increased interest in LFPs because of their correlation with functional magnetic resonance imaging blood oxygenation level-dependent measurements and the possibility of studying local processing and neuronal synchrony. To further understand the biophysical origin of LFPs, we asked whether it is possible to estimate their time course based on the spiking activity from the same electrode or nearby electrodes. We used "signal estimation theory" to show that a linear filter operation on the activity of one or a few neurons can explain a significant fraction of the LFP time course in the macaque monkey primary visual cortex. The linear filter used to estimate the LFPs had a stereotypical shape characterized by a sharp downstroke at negative time lags and a slower positive upstroke for positive time lags. The filter was similar across different neocortical regions and behavioral conditions, including spontaneous activity and visual stimulation. The estimations had a spatial resolution of approximately 1 mm and a temporal resolution of approximately 200 ms. By considering a causal filter, we observed a temporal asymmetry such that the positive time lags in the filter contributed more to the LFP estimation than the negative time lags. Additionally, we showed that spikes occurring within approximately 10 ms of spikes from nearby neurons yielded better estimation accuracies than nonsynchronous spikes. In summary, our results suggest that at least some circuit-level local properties of the field potentials can be predicted from the activity of one or a few neurons.

From neurons to circuits: linear estimation of local field potentials

PubMed Central

Rasch, Malte; Logthetis, Nikos K.; Kreiman, Gabriel

2010-01-01

Extracellular physiological recordings are typically separated into two frequency bands: local field potentials (LFPs, a circuit property) and spiking multi-unit activity (MUA). There has been increased interest in LFPs due to their correlation with fMRI measurements and the possibility of studying local processing and neuronal synchrony. To further understand the biophysical origin of LFPs, we asked whether it is possible to estimate their time course based on the spiking activity from the same or nearby electrodes. We used Signal Estimation Theory to show that a linear filter operation on the activity of one/few neurons can explain a significant fraction of the LFP time course in the macaque primary visual cortex. The linear filter used to estimate the LFPs had a stereotypical shape characterized by a sharp downstroke at negative time lags and a slower positive upstroke for positve time lags. The filter was similar across neocortical regions and behavioral conditions including spontaneous activity and visual stimulation. The estimations had a spatial resolution of ~1 mm and a temporal resolution of ~200 ms. By considering a causal filter, we observed a temporal asymmetry such that the positive time lags in the filter contributed more to the LFP estimation than negative time lags. Additionally, we showed that spikes occurring within ~10 ms of spikes from nearby neurons yielded better estimation accuracies than nonsynchronous spikes. In sum, our results suggest that at least some circuit-level local properties of the field potentials can be predicted from the activity of one or a few neurons. PMID:19889990

Pearson correlation estimation for irregularly sampled time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, K.; Marwan, N.; Heitzig, J.; Kurths, J.

2012-04-01

Many applications in the geosciences call for the joint and objective analysis of irregular time series. For automated processing, robust measures of linear and nonlinear association are needed. Up to now, the standard approach would have been to reconstruct the time series on a regular grid, using linear or spline interpolation. Interpolation, however, comes with systematic side-effects, as it increases the auto-correlation in the time series. We have searched for the best method to estimate Pearson correlation for irregular time series, i.e. the one with the lowest estimation bias and variance. We adapted a kernel-based approach, using Gaussian weights. Pearson correlation is calculated, in principle, as a mean over products of previously centralized observations. In the regularly sampled case, observations in both time series were observed at the same time and thus the allocation of measurement values into pairs of products is straightforward. In the irregularly sampled case, however, measurements were not necessarily observed at the same time. Now, the key idea of the kernel-based method is to calculate weighted means of products, with the weight depending on the time separation between the observations. If the lagged correlation function is desired, the weights depend on the absolute difference between observation time separation and the estimation lag. To assess the applicability of the approach we used extensive simulations to determine the extent of interpolation side-effects with increasing irregularity of time series. We compared different approaches, based on (linear) interpolation, the Lomb-Scargle Fourier Transform, the sinc kernel and the Gaussian kernel. We investigated the role of kernel bandwidth and signal-to-noise ratio in the simulations. We found that the Gaussian kernel approach offers significant advantages and low Root-Mean Square Errors for regular, slightly irregular and very irregular time series. We therefore conclude that it is a good (linear) similarity measure that is appropriate for irregular time series with skewed inter-sampling time distributions.

Non-linear boundary-layer receptivity due to distributed surface roughness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amer, Tahani Reffet

1995-01-01

The process by which a laminar boundary layer internalizes the external disturbances in the form of instability waves is known as boundary-layer receptivity. The objective of the present research was to determine the effect of acoustic excitation on boundary-layer receptivity for a flat plate with distributed variable-amplitude surface roughness through measurements with a hot-wire probe. Tollmien-Schlichting mode shapes due to surface roughness receptivity have also been determined, analyzed, and shown to be in agreement with theory and other experimental work. It has been shown that there is a linear relationship between the surface roughness and receptivity for certain roughness configurations with constant roughness wavelength. In addition, strong non-linear receptivity effects exist for certain surface roughness configurations over a band where the surface roughness and T-S wavelength are matched. The results from the present experiment follow the trends predicted by theory and other experimental work for linear receptivity. In addition, the results show the existence of non-linear receptivity effects for certain combinations of surface roughness elements.

Modeling of photocurrent and lag signals in amorphous selenium x-ray detectors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siddiquee, Sinchita; Kabir, M. Z., E-mail: kabir@encs.concordia.ca

2015-07-15

A mathematical model for transient photocurrent and lag signal in x-ray imaging detectors has been developed by considering charge carrier trapping and detrapping in the energy distributed defect states under exponentially distributed carrier generation across the photoconductor. The model for the transient and steady-state carrier distributions and hence the photocurrent has been developed by solving the carrier continuity equation for both holes and electrons. The residual (commonly known as lag signal) current is modeled by solving the trapping rate equations considering the thermal release and trap filling effects. The model is applied to amorphous selenium (a-Se) detectors for both chestmore » radiography and mammography. The authors analyze the dependence of the residual current on various factors, such as x-ray exposure, applied electric field, and temperature. The electron trapping and detrapping mostly determines the residual current in a-Se detectors. The lag signal is more prominent in chest radiographic detector than in mammographic detectors. The model calculations are compared with the published experimental data and show a very good agreement.« less

Durability of classification and action learning: differences revealed using ex-Gaussian distribution analysis.

PubMed

Moutsopoulou, Karolina; Waszak, Florian

2013-05-01

It has been shown that in associative learning it is possible to disentangle the effects caused on behaviour by the associations between a stimulus and a classification (S-C) and the associations between a stimulus and the action performed towards it (S-A). Such evidence has been provided using ex-Gaussian distribution analysis to show that different parameters of the reaction time distribution reflect the different processes. Here, using this method, we investigate another difference between these two types of associations: What is the relative durability of these associations across time? Using a task-switching paradigm and by manipulating the lag between the point of the creation of the associations and the test phase, we show that S-A associations have stronger effects on behaviour when the lag between the two repetitions of a stimulus is short. However, classification learning affects behaviour not only in short-term lags but also (and equally so) when the lag between prime and probe is long and the same stimuli are repeatedly presented within a different classification task, demonstrating a remarkable durability of S-C associations.

Stress Induced in Periodontal Ligament under Orthodontic Loading (Part II): A Comparison of Linear Versus Non-Linear Fem Study.

PubMed

Hemanth, M; Deoli, Shilpi; Raghuveer, H P; Rani, M S; Hegde, Chatura; Vedavathi, B

2015-09-01

Simulation of periodontal ligament (PDL) using non-linear finite element method (FEM) analysis gives better insight into understanding of the biology of tooth movement. The stresses in the PDL were evaluated for intrusion and lingual root torque using non-linear properties. A three-dimensional (3D) FEM model of the maxillary incisors was generated using Solidworks modeling software. Stresses in the PDL were evaluated for intrusive and lingual root torque movements by 3D FEM using ANSYS software. These stresses were compared with linear and non-linear analyses. For intrusive and lingual root torque movements, distribution of stress over the PDL was within the range of optimal stress value as proposed by Lee, but was exceeding the force system given by Proffit as optimum forces for orthodontic tooth movement with linear properties. When same force load was applied in non-linear analysis, stresses were more compared to linear analysis and were beyond the optimal stress range as proposed by Lee for both intrusive and lingual root torque. To get the same stress as linear analysis, iterations were done using non-linear properties and the force level was reduced. This shows that the force level required for non-linear analysis is lesser than that of linear analysis.

Short-term association between air pollution and emergency room admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Nis, Serbia.

PubMed

Milutinović, Suzana; Nikić, Dragana; Stosić, Ljiljana; Stanković, Aleksandra; Bogdanović, Dragan

2009-03-01

The present study assesses the short-term association between black smoke (BS) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) levels in urban air and the daily number of emergency room admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Nis, Serbia. Generalised linear models extending Poisson regression were fitted controlling for time trend, seasonal variations, days of the week, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, precipitation, rainfall, snowfall, overcast, and wind velocity. The emergency room admissions for all ages for COPD were significantly associated with previous-day level of BS and lag 0-2 (1,60% and 2,26% increase per 10 microg/m3, respectively). After controlling for SO2, single lagged (lag 1 and lag 2) as well as mean lagged values of BS (up to lag 0-3) were significantly associated with COPD emergencies. No effect was found for SO2, even after controlling for black smoke. The present findings support the conclusion that current levels of ambient BS may have an effect on the respiratory health of susceptible persons.

The effect of high temperature on cause-specific mortality: A multi-county analysis in China.

PubMed

Ban, Jie; Xu, Dandan; He, Mike Z; Sun, Qinghua; Chen, Chen; Wang, Wentao; Zhu, Pengfei; Li, Tiantian

2017-09-01

Although existing studies have linked high temperature to mortality in a small number of regions, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between high temperature exposure and cause-specific mortality of multiple regions in China. Our study focused on the use of time series analysis to quantify the association between high temperature and different cause-specific mortalities for susceptible populations for 43 counties in China. Two-stage analyses adopting a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and a meta-analysis allowed us to obtain county-specific estimates and national-scale pooled estimates of the nonlinear temperature-mortality relationship. We also considered different populations stratified by age and sex, causes of death, absolute and relative temperature patterns, and potential confounding from air pollutants. All of the observed cause-specific mortalities are significantly associated with higher temperature. The estimated effects of high temperature on mortality varied by spatial distribution and temperature patterns. Compared with the 90th percentile temperature, the overall relative risk (RR) at the 99th percentile temperature for non-accidental mortality is 1.105 (95%CI: 1.089, 1.122), for circulatory disease is 1.107 (95%CI: 1.081, 1.133), for respiratory disease is 1.095 (95%CI: 1.050, 1.142), for coronary heart disease is 1.073 (95%CI: 1.047, 1.099), for acute myocardial infarction is 1.072 (95%CI: 1.042, 1.104), and for stroke is 1.095 (95%CI: 1.052, 1.138). Based on our findings, we believe that heat-related health effect in China is a significant issue that requires more attention and allocation of existing resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suppression of surface-originated gate lag by a dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor architecture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deen, David A., E-mail: david.deen@alumni.nd.edu; Storm, David F.; Scott Katzer, D.

A dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) architecture is demonstrated that leverages ultra-thin epitaxial layers to suppress surface-related gate lag. Two high-density two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) channels are utilized in an AlN/GaN/AlN/GaN heterostructure wherein the top 2DEG serves as a quasi-equipotential that screens potential fluctuations resulting from distributed surface and interface states. The bottom channel serves as the transistor's modulated channel. Dual-channel AlN/GaN heterostructures were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on free-standing hydride vapor phase epitaxy GaN substrates. HEMTs fabricated with 300 nm long recessed gates demonstrated a gate lag ratio (GLR) of 0.88 with no degradation in drain currentmore » after bias stressed in subthreshold. These structures additionally achieved small signal metrics f{sub t}/f{sub max} of 27/46 GHz. These performance results are contrasted with the non-recessed gate dual-channel HEMT with a GLR of 0.74 and 82 mA/mm current collapse with f{sub t}/f{sub max} of 48/60 GHz.« less

Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, Germán

2011-02-01

Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with < β> = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

Influenza newspaper reports and the influenza epidemic: an observational study in Fukuoka City, Japan.

PubMed

Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Miyazaki, Shougo; Abe, Takeru

2015-12-30

We examined whether the weekly number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza was related to the incidence of influenza in a large city. Prospective, non-randomised, observational study. Registry data of influenza cases in Fukuoka City, Japan. A total of 83,613 cases of influenza cases that occurred between October 1999 and March 2007 in Fukuoka City, Japan. A linear model with autoregressive time series errors was fitted to time series data on the incidence of influenza and the accumulated number of influenza-related newspaper articles with different time lags in Fukuoka City, Japan. In order to obtain further evidence that the number of newspaper articles a week with specific time lags is related to the incidence of influenza, Granger causality was also tested. Of the 16 models including 'number of newspaper articles' with different time lags between 2 and 17 weeks (xt-2 to t-17), the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' at time lags between t-5 and t-13 were significant. However, the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' that are significant with respect to the Granger causality tests (p<0.05) were the weekly number of newspaper articles at time lags between t-6 and t-10 (time shift of 10 weeks, β=-0.301, p<0.01; time shift of 9 weeks, β=-0.200, p<0.01; time shift of 8 weeks, β=-0.156, p<0.01; time shift of 7 weeks, β=-0.122, p<0.05; time shift of 6 weeks, β=-0.113, p<0.05). We found that the number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza in a week was related to the incidence of influenza 6-10 weeks after media coverage in a large city in Japan. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Influenza newspaper reports and the influenza epidemic: an observational study in Fukuoka City, Japan

PubMed Central

Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Miyazaki, Shougo; Abe, Takeru

2015-01-01

Objectives We examined whether the weekly number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza was related to the incidence of influenza in a large city. Design Prospective, non-randomised, observational study. Setting Registry data of influenza cases in Fukuoka City, Japan. Participants A total of 83 613 cases of influenza cases that occurred between October 1999 and March 2007 in Fukuoka City, Japan. Main outcome measure A linear model with autoregressive time series errors was fitted to time series data on the incidence of influenza and the accumulated number of influenza-related newspaper articles with different time lags in Fukuoka City, Japan. In order to obtain further evidence that the number of newspaper articles a week with specific time lags is related to the incidence of influenza, Granger causality was also tested. Results Of the 16 models including ‘number of newspaper articles’ with different time lags between 2 and 17 weeks (xt-2 to t-17), the β coefficients of ‘number of newspaper articles’ at time lags between t-5 and t-13 were significant. However, the β coefficients of ‘number of newspaper articles’ that are significant with respect to the Granger causality tests (p<0.05) were the weekly number of newspaper articles at time lags between t-6 and t-10 (time shift of 10 weeks, β=−0.301, p<0.01; time shift of 9 weeks, β=−0.200, p<0.01; time shift of 8 weeks, β=−0.156, p<0.01; time shift of 7 weeks, β=−0.122, p<0.05; time shift of 6 weeks, β=−0.113, p<0.05). Conclusions We found that the number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza in a week was related to the incidence of influenza 6–10 weeks after media coverage in a large city in Japan. PMID:26719323

Accurate electrostatic and van der Waals pull-in prediction for fully clamped nano/micro-beams using linear universal graphs of pull-in instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahani, Masoud; Askari, Amir R.

2014-09-01

In spite of the fact that pull-in instability of electrically actuated nano/micro-beams has been investigated by many researchers to date, no explicit formula has been presented yet which can predict pull-in voltage based on a geometrically non-linear and distributed parameter model. The objective of present paper is to introduce a simple and accurate formula to predict this value for a fully clamped electrostatically actuated nano/micro-beam. To this end, a non-linear Euler-Bernoulli beam model is employed, which accounts for the axial residual stress, geometric non-linearity of mid-plane stretching, distributed electrostatic force and the van der Waals (vdW) attraction. The non-linear boundary value governing equation of equilibrium is non-dimensionalized and solved iteratively through single-term Galerkin based reduced order model (ROM). The solutions are validated thorough direct comparison with experimental and other existing results reported in previous studies. Pull-in instability under electrical and vdW loads are also investigated using universal graphs. Based on the results of these graphs, non-dimensional pull-in and vdW parameters, which are defined in the text, vary linearly versus the other dimensionless parameters of the problem. Using this fact, some linear equations are presented to predict pull-in voltage, the maximum allowable length, the so-called detachment length, and the minimum allowable gap for a nano/micro-system. These linear equations are also reduced to a couple of universal pull-in formulas for systems with small initial gap. The accuracy of the universal pull-in formulas are also validated by comparing its results with available experimental and some previous geometric linear and closed-form findings published in the literature.

The association between ambient temperature and childhood asthma: a systematic review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiwei; Crooks, James Lewis; Davies, Janet Mary; Khan, Al Fazal; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2018-03-01

The objectives of this study are to review available information on the association between ambient temperature and childhood asthma, and to elucidate the possible underlying mechanisms of this relationship. A systematic review was conducted based on the papers retrieved from four databases, including PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Scopus. Papers examining the association of absolute temperature or temperature variation with childhood asthma published from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2016 were included. Thirteen papers have quantified the effect of absolute temperature on childhood asthma, and six papers have examined the effect of intra- or inter-day temperature variation on childhood asthma. All studies were conducted in urban areas. Aeroallergen sensitizations were only considered in the analyses of one study. Discrepancy existed in the significance of the relationship between absolute temperature and childhood asthma, and also in the shape of this relationship (i.e. linear or non-linear) and whether temperature effects were lagged. Increasing evidence is suggesting non-linear relationship between absolute temperature and childhood asthma. Future research should investigate the burden of childhood asthma specifically attributable to extreme temperatures and temperature variation using advanced statistical approach, particularly in rural areas, after properly considering aeroallergens and air pollution. Projecting future burden of childhood asthma under climate change scenarios is also warranted.

The association between ambient temperature and childhood asthma: a systematic review.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; Crooks, James Lewis; Davies, Janet Mary; Khan, Al Fazal; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2018-03-01

The objectives of this study are to review available information on the association between ambient temperature and childhood asthma, and to elucidate the possible underlying mechanisms of this relationship. A systematic review was conducted based on the papers retrieved from four databases, including PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Scopus. Papers examining the association of absolute temperature or temperature variation with childhood asthma published from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2016 were included. Thirteen papers have quantified the effect of absolute temperature on childhood asthma, and six papers have examined the effect of intra- or inter-day temperature variation on childhood asthma. All studies were conducted in urban areas. Aeroallergen sensitizations were only considered in the analyses of one study. Discrepancy existed in the significance of the relationship between absolute temperature and childhood asthma, and also in the shape of this relationship (i.e. linear or non-linear) and whether temperature effects were lagged. Increasing evidence is suggesting non-linear relationship between absolute temperature and childhood asthma. Future research should investigate the burden of childhood asthma specifically attributable to extreme temperatures and temperature variation using advanced statistical approach, particularly in rural areas, after properly considering aeroallergens and air pollution. Projecting future burden of childhood asthma under climate change scenarios is also warranted.

The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China.

PubMed

Huang, Jixia; Wang, Jinfeng; Yu, Weiwei

2014-04-11

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha--a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0-3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10-25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0-2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%-8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%-7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Air Pollution and Deaths among Elderly Residents of São Paulo, Brazil: An Analysis of Mortality Displacement.

PubMed

Costa, Amine Farias; Hoek, Gerard; Brunekreef, Bert; Ponce de Leon, Antônio C M

2017-03-01

Evaluation of short-term mortality displacement is essential to accurately estimate the impact of short-term air pollution exposure on public health. We quantified mortality displacement by estimating single-day lag effects and cumulative effects of air pollutants on mortality using distributed lag models. We performed a daily time series of nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality among elderly residents of São Paulo, Brazil, between 2000 and 2011. Effects of particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM 10 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) were estimated in Poisson generalized additive models. Single-day lag effects of air pollutant exposure were estimated for 0-, 1- and 2-day lags. Distributed lag models with lags of 0-10, 0-20 and 0-30 days were used to assess mortality displacement and potential cumulative exposure effects. PM 10 , NO 2 and CO were significantly associated with nonaccidental and cause-specific deaths in both single-day lag and cumulative lag models. Cumulative effect estimates for 0-10 days were larger than estimates for single-day lags. Cumulative effect estimates for 0-30 days were essentially zero for nonaccidental and circulatory deaths but remained elevated for respiratory and cancer deaths. We found evidence of mortality displacement within 30 days for nonaccidental and circulatory deaths in elderly residents of São Paulo. We did not find evidence of mortality displacement within 30 days for respiratory or cancer deaths. Citation: Costa AF, Hoek G, Brunekreef B, Ponce de Leon AC. 2017. Air pollution and deaths among elderly residents of São Paulo, Brazil: an analysis of mortality displacement. Environ Health Perspect 125:349-354; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP98.

Filter-Based Phase Shifts Distort Neuronal Timing Information.

PubMed

Yael, Dorin; Vecht, Jacob J; Bar-Gad, Izhar

2018-01-01

Filters are widely used for the modulation, typically attenuation, of amplitudes of different frequencies within neurophysiological signals. Filters, however, also induce changes in the phases of different frequencies whose amplitude is unmodulated. These phase shifts cause time lags in the filtered signals, leading to a disruption of the timing information between different frequencies within the same signal and between different signals. The emerging time lags can be either constant in the case of linear phase (LP) filters or vary as a function of the frequency in the more common case of non-LP (NLP) filters. Since filters are used ubiquitously online in the early stages of data acquisition, the vast majority of neurophysiological signals thus suffer from distortion of the timing information even prior to their sampling. This distortion is often exacerbated by further multiple offline filtering stages of the sampled signal. The distortion of timing information may cause misinterpretation of the results and lead to erroneous conclusions. Here we present a variety of typical examples of filter-induced phase distortions and discuss the evaluation and restoration of the timing information underlying the original signal.

Filter-Based Phase Shifts Distort Neuronal Timing Information

PubMed Central

Yael, Dorin; Vecht, Jacob J.

2018-01-01

Filters are widely used for the modulation, typically attenuation, of amplitudes of different frequencies within neurophysiological signals. Filters, however, also induce changes in the phases of different frequencies whose amplitude is unmodulated. These phase shifts cause time lags in the filtered signals, leading to a disruption of the timing information between different frequencies within the same signal and between different signals. The emerging time lags can be either constant in the case of linear phase (LP) filters or vary as a function of the frequency in the more common case of non-LP (NLP) filters. Since filters are used ubiquitously online in the early stages of data acquisition, the vast majority of neurophysiological signals thus suffer from distortion of the timing information even prior to their sampling. This distortion is often exacerbated by further multiple offline filtering stages of the sampled signal. The distortion of timing information may cause misinterpretation of the results and lead to erroneous conclusions. Here we present a variety of typical examples of filter-induced phase distortions and discuss the evaluation and restoration of the timing information underlying the original signal. PMID:29766044

Function and regulation of LAG3 on CD4+CD25- T cells in non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Ma, Qin-Yun; Huang, Da-Yu; Zhang, Hui-Jun; Wang, Shaohua; Chen, Xiao-Feng

2017-11-15

LAG3 is a surface molecule found on a subset of immune cells. The precise function of LAG3 appears to be context-dependent. In this study, we investigated the effect of LAG3 on CD4 + CD25 - T cells from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We found that in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of NSCLC patients, LAG3 was significantly increased in CD4 + T cells directly ex vivo and primarily in the CD4 + CD25 - fraction, which was regulated by prolonged TCR stimulation and the presence of IL-27. TCR stimulation also increased CD25 expression, but not Foxp3 expression, in LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - cells Compared to LAG3-nonexpressing CD4 + CD25 - cells, LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - cells presented significantly higher levels of PD1 and TIM3, two inhibitory receptors best described in exhausted CD8 + T effector cells. LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - cells also presented impaired proliferation compared with LAG3-nonexpressing CD4 + CD25 - cells but could be partially rescued by inhibiting both PD1 and TIM3. Interestingly, CD8 + T cells co-incubated with LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - cells at equal cell numbers demonstrated significantly lower proliferation than CD8 + T cells incubated alone. Co-culture with CD8 + T cell and LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - T cell also upregulated soluble IL-10 level in the supernatant, of which the concentration was positively correlated with the number of LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - T cells. In addition, we found that LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - T cells infiltrated the resected tumors and were present at higher frequencies of in metastases than in primary tumors. Taken together, these data suggest that LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - T cells represent another regulatory immune cell type with potential to interfere with anti-tumor immunity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Damage Models for Predicting the Non-Linear Response of Laminates Under Matrix Dominated Loading Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuecker, Clara; Davila, Carlos G.; Rose, Cheryl A.

2010-01-01

Five models for matrix damage in fiber reinforced laminates are evaluated for matrix-dominated loading conditions under plane stress and are compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. The emphasis of this study is on a comparison of the response of embedded plies subjected to a homogeneous stress state. Three of the models are specifically designed for modeling the non-linear response due to distributed matrix cracking under homogeneous loading, and also account for non-linear (shear) behavior prior to the onset of cracking. The remaining two models are localized damage models intended for predicting local failure at stress concentrations. The modeling approaches of distributed vs. localized cracking as well as the different formulations of damage initiation and damage progression are compared and discussed.

Response of spectral vegetation indices to soil moisture in grasslands and shrublands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Li; Ji, Lei; Wylie, Bruce K.

2011-01-01

The relationships between satellite-derived vegetation indices (VIs) and soil moisture are complicated because of the time lag of the vegetation response to soil moisture. In this study, we used a distributed lag regression model to evaluate the lag responses of VIs to soil moisture for grasslands and shrublands at Soil Climate Analysis Network sites in the central and western United States. We examined the relationships between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived VIs and soil moisture measurements. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) showed significant lag responses to soil moisture. The lag length varies from 8 to 56 days for NDVI and from 16 to 56 days for NDWI. However, the lag response of NDVI and NDWI to soil moisture varied among the sites. Our study suggests that the lag effect needs to be taken into consideration when the VIs are used to estimate soil moisture.

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Institut national de santé publique du Québec

2014-10-15

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures inmore » 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in colder temperate zones. - Highlights: • 259 heat-related compensated illnesses were modeled with ambient temperature • An overall risk ratio of 1.419 (95% CI 1.326–1.520) for every 1 °C increase was found • Risk estimates were similar for men and women and by large age groups. • There were little lag effects (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase)« less

Mortality associated with particulate concentration and Asian dust storms in Metropolitan Taipei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yu-Chun; Lin, Yu-Kai

2015-09-01

This study evaluates mortality risks from all causes, circulatory diseases, and respiratory diseases associated with particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) concentrations and Asian dust storms (ADS) from 2000 to 2008 in Metropolitan Taipei. This study uses a distributed lag non-linear model with Poisson distribution to estimate the cumulative 5-day (lags 0-4) relative risks (RRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of cause-specific mortality associated with daily PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations, as well as ADS, for total (all ages) and elderly (≥65 years) populations based on study periods (ADS frequently inflicted period: 2000-2004; and less inflicted period: 2005-2008). Risks associated with ADS characteristics, including inflicted season (winter and spring), strength (the ratio of stations with Pollutant Standard Index >100 is <0.5 or ≥0.5), and duration (ADS persisted for 1-3 or ≥4 days), were also evaluated. Nonlinear models showed that an increase in PM10 from 10 μg/m3 to 50 μg/m3 was associated with increased all-cause mortality risk with cumulative 5-day RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.17) for the total population and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.18) for elders. Mortality from circulatory diseases for the elderly was related to increased PM2.5 from 5 μg/m3 to 30 μg/m3, with cumulative 5-day RR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.44) from 2005 to 2008. Compared with normal days, the mortality from all causes and circulatory diseases for the elderly population was associated with winter ADS with RRs of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.08) and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.15), respectively. Moreover, all-cause mortality was associated with shorter and less area-affected ADS with an RR of 1.04 for total and elderly populations from 2000 to 2004. Population health risk differed not only with PM concentration but also with ADS characteristics.

Testing ground for fluctuation theorems: The one-dimensional Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemos, C. G. O.; Santos, M.; Ferreira, A. L.; Figueiredo, W.

2018-04-01

In this paper we determine the nonequilibrium magnetic work performed on a Ising model and relate it to the fluctuation theorem derived some years ago by Jarzynski. The basic idea behind this theorem is the relationship connecting the free energy difference between two thermodynamic states of a system and the average work performed by an external agent, in a finite time, through nonequilibrium paths between the same thermodynamic states. We test the validity of this theorem by considering the one-dimensional Ising model where the free energy is exactly determined as a function of temperature and magnetic field. We have found that the Jarzynski theorem remains valid for all the values of the rate of variation of the magnetic field applied to the system. We have also determined the probability distribution function for the work performed on the system for the forward and reverse processes and verified that predictions based on the Crooks relation are equally correct. We also propose a method to calculate the lag between the current state of the system and that of the equilibrium based on macroscopic variables. We have shown that the lag increases with the sweeping rate of the field at its final value for the reverse process, while it decreases in the case of the forward process. The lag increases linearly with the size of the chain and with a slope decreasing with the inverse of the rate of variation of the field.

The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background:The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian,Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms,but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America . The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century.Objectives: We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005.Methods:Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location. are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993-2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditionallogistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-acc idental).Results: We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4% (95% Cl: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7% (95% Cl: 1.1,12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7% (95% Cl: 0.4,

Delineating chalk sand distribution of Ekofisk formation using probabilistic neural network (PNN) and stepwise regression (SWR): Case study Danish North Sea field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haris, A.; Nafian, M.; Riyanto, A.

2017-07-01

Danish North Sea Fields consist of several formations (Ekofisk, Tor, and Cromer Knoll) that was started from the age of Paleocene to Miocene. In this study, the integration of seismic and well log data set is carried out to determine the chalk sand distribution in the Danish North Sea field. The integration of seismic and well log data set is performed by using the seismic inversion analysis and seismic multi-attribute. The seismic inversion algorithm, which is used to derive acoustic impedance (AI), is model-based technique. The derived AI is then used as external attributes for the input of multi-attribute analysis. Moreover, the multi-attribute analysis is used to generate the linear and non-linear transformation of among well log properties. In the case of the linear model, selected transformation is conducted by weighting step-wise linear regression (SWR), while for the non-linear model is performed by using probabilistic neural networks (PNN). The estimated porosity, which is resulted by PNN shows better suited to the well log data compared with the results of SWR. This result can be understood since PNN perform non-linear regression so that the relationship between the attribute data and predicted log data can be optimized. The distribution of chalk sand has been successfully identified and characterized by porosity value ranging from 23% up to 30%.

Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che-Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; @ Kamariah Kamaruddin, Nafisah

2018-04-01

Previous studies reported significant relationship between dengue incidence rate (DIR) and both climatic and non-climatic factors. Therefore, this study proposes a generalised additive model (GAM) framework for dengue risk in Malaysia by using both climatic and non-climatic factors. The data used is monthly DIR for 12 states of Malaysia from 2001 to 2009. In this study, we considered an annual trend, seasonal effects, population, population density and lagged DIR, rainfall, temperature, number of rainy days and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The population density is found to be positively related to monthly DIR. There are generally weak relationships between monthly DIR and climate variables. A negative binomial GAM shows that there are statistically significant relationships between DIR with climatic and non-climatic factors. These include mean rainfall and temperature, the number of rainy days, sea surface temperature and the interaction between mean temperature (lag 1 month) and sea surface temperature (lag 6 months). These also apply to DIR (lag 3 months) and population density.

Unilateral lag screw fixation of isolated non-union atlas lateral mass fracture: a new technical note.

PubMed

Farrokhi, Majid Reza; Kiani, Arash; Rezaei, Hamid

2018-01-15

We describe a novel and new technique of posterior unilateral lag screw fixation of non-union atlas lateral mass fracture. A 46-year-old man presented with cervical pain and tenderness after a vehicle turn over accident and he was diagnosed to have left atlas lateral mass fracture. He was initially treated by immobilization using Minerva orthosis. About 2 months later, he developed severe neck pain and limitation of motion and thus he was scheduled for operation due to non-union atlas lateral mass fracture. A 28 mm lag screw was inserted under anterior-posterior and lateral fluoroscopic views. The entrance point was at the dorsal aspect of left atlas posterior arc at its junction to the lateral mass, and by using the trajectory of 10 degrees medial and 22 degrees cephalad fracture reduction was achieved. Unilateral lag screw fixation of atlas fractures is an appropriate, safe and effective surgical technique for the management of unilateral atlas fractures.

Dynamic pressure probe response tests for robust measurements in periodic flows close to probe resonating frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceyhun Şahin, Fatma; Schiffmann, Jürg

2018-02-01

A single-hole probe was designed to measure steady and periodic flows with high fluctuation amplitudes and with minimal flow intrusion. Because of its high aspect ratio, estimations showed that the probe resonates at a frequency two orders of magnitude lower than the fast response sensor cut-off frequencies. The high fluctuation amplitudes cause a non-linear behavior of the probe and available models are neither adequate for a quantitative estimation of the resonating frequencies nor for predicting the system damping. Instead, a non-linear data correction procedure based on individual transfer functions defined for each harmonic contribution is introduced for pneumatic probes that allows to extend their operating range beyond the resonating frequencies and linear dynamics. This data correction procedure was assessed on a miniature single-hole probe of 0.35 mm inner diameter which was designed to measure flow speed and direction. For the reliable use of such a probe in periodic flows, its frequency response was reproduced with a siren disk, which allows exciting the probe up to 10 kHz with peak-to-peak amplitudes ranging between 20%-170% of the absolute mean pressure. The effect of the probe interior design on the phase lag and amplitude distortion in periodic flow measurements was investigated on probes with similar inner diameters and different lengths or similar aspect ratios (L/D) and different total interior volumes. The results suggest that while the tube length consistently sets the resonance frequency, the internal total volume affects the non-linear dynamic response in terms of varying gain functions. A detailed analysis of the introduced calibration methodology shows that the goodness of the reconstructed data compared to the reference data is above 75% for fundamental frequencies up to twice the probe resonance frequency. The results clearly suggest that the introduced procedure is adequate to capture non-linear pneumatic probe dynamics and to reproduce time-resolved data far above probe resonant frequency.

Prediction of Gross Primary Production during the Drought and Normal Years over the US Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halubok, M.; Yang, Z. L.

2016-12-01

This study investigates how gross primary production (GPP) estimates can be improved with the use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and presents an effort to produce GPP predictions based on the interdependence between SIF, precipitation, soil moisture and GPP using Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (ESA CCI SM) datasets and FLUXNET observations. We found that considering the relationships between SIF, precipitation and soil moisture, isolating SIF-GPP relationships for different plant functional types (PFTs), and using precipitation and soil moisture conditions pertinent to the continental US provides the most accurate GPP estimates over the Great Plains and Texas. We found that there exists a lag between a precipitation event and corresponding fluorescence levels, ranging from about 2 weeks for grasses to a month for crops. Using these lead-lag relationships, we estimate GPP using SIF, precipitation and soil moisture data for two different PFTs (C3 non-arctic grass and crop) over the US applying the multiple linear regression technique. GPP values estimated from our lead-lag based SIF show the closest possible match with the observational data from the FLUXNET stations. During the drought 2011 year over Texas, our GPP values show a decrease by 100 gC/m2/month as compared to the reference year of 2007. In 2012 (drought year over the Great Plains), we observe significant decrease in GPP, especially in the area of high production (>500 gC/m2/month) that is reduced in July and August 2012. Hence, estimating GPP using specific SIF-GPP relationships, considering the differences in biomes and their interactions with precipitation and soil moisture pertinent to a certain region can detect the drought trends and produce reasonable GPP estimates. Thus, this simple and computationally efficient method based on derived linear equations can be used to obtain GPP predictions.

Time-lagged autoencoders: Deep learning of slow collective variables for molecular kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehmeyer, Christoph; Noé, Frank

2018-06-01

Inspired by the success of deep learning techniques in the physical and chemical sciences, we apply a modification of an autoencoder type deep neural network to the task of dimension reduction of molecular dynamics data. We can show that our time-lagged autoencoder reliably finds low-dimensional embeddings for high-dimensional feature spaces which capture the slow dynamics of the underlying stochastic processes—beyond the capabilities of linear dimension reduction techniques.

FDATMOS16 non-linear partitioning and organic volatility distributions in urban aerosols

DOE PAGES

Madronich, Sasha; Kleinman, Larry; Conley, Andrew; ...

2015-12-17

Gas-to-particle partitioning of organic aerosols (OA) is represented in most models by Raoult’s law, and depends on the existing mass of particles into which organic gases can dissolve. This raises the possibility of non-linear response of particle-phase OA to the emissions of precursor volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that contribute to this partitioning mass. Implications for air quality management are evident: A strong non-linear dependence would suggest that reductions in VOC emission would have a more-than-proportionate benefit in lowering ambient OA concentrations. Chamber measurements on simple VOC mixtures generally confirm the non-linear scaling between OA and VOCs, usually stated as amore » mass-dependence of the measured OA yields. However, for realistic ambient conditions including urban settings, no single component dominates the composition of the organic particles, and deviations from linearity are presumed to be small. Here we re-examine the linearity question using volatility spectra from several sources: (1) chamber studies of selected aerosols, (2) volatility inferred for aerosols sampled in two megacities, Mexico City and Paris, and (3) an explicit chemistry model (GECKO-A). These few available volatility distributions suggest that urban OA may be only slightly super-linear, with most values of the sensitivity exponent in the range 1.1-1.3, also substantially lower than seen in chambers for some specific aerosols. Furthermore, the rather low values suggest that OA concentrations in megacities are not an inevitable convergence of non-linear effects, but can be addressed (much like in smaller urban areas) by proportionate reductions in emissions.« less

Determination of design and operation parameters for upper atmospheric research instrumentation to yield optimum resolution with deconvolution, appendix 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ioup, George E.; Ioup, Juliette W.

1989-01-01

The power spectrum for a stationary random process can be defined with the Wiener-Khintchine Theorem, which says that the power spectrum and the auto correlation function are a Fourier transform pair. To implement this theorem for signals that are discrete and of finite length we can use the Blackman-Tukey method. Blackman and Tukey (1958) show that a function w(tau), called a lag window, can be applied to the auto correlation estimates to obtain power spectrum estimates that are statistically stable. The Fourier transform of w(r) is called a spectral window. Typical choices for spectral windows show a distinct trade-off between the main lobe width and side lobe strength. A new idea for designing windows by taking linear combinations of the standard windows to produce hybrid windows was introduced by Smith (1985). We implement Smith's idea to obtain spectral windows with narrow main lobes and smaller (compared with typical windows) near side lobes. One of the main contributions of this thesis is that we show that Smith's problem is equivalent to a Quadratic Programming (QP) problem with linear equality and inequality constraints. A computer program was written to produce hybrid windows by setting up and solving the QP problem. We also developed and solved two variations of the original problem. The two variations involved changing the inequality constraints in both cases from non negativity on the combination coefficients to non negativity on the hybrid lag window itself. For the second variation, the window functions used to construct the hybrid window were changed to a frequency-variable set of truncated cosinusoids. A series of tests was run with the three computer programs to investigate the behavior of the hybrid spectral and lag windows. Emphasis was put on obtaining spectral windows with both relatively narrow main lobes and the lowest possible (for these algorithms) near side lobes. Some success was achieved for this goal. A 10 dB peak side lobe reduction over the rectangular spectral window without significant main lobe broadening was achieved. Also, average side lobe levels of -117 dB were reached at a cost of doubling the main lobe width (at the -3 dB point).

WE-H-BRA-01: BEST IN PHYSICS (THERAPY): Nano-Dosimetric Kinetic Model for Variable Relative Biological Effectiveness of Proton and Ion Beams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abolfath, R; Bronk, L; Titt, U.

2016-06-15

Purpose: Recent clonogenic cell survival and γH2AX studies suggest proton relative biological effectiveness (RBE) may be a non-linear function of linear energy transfer (LET) in the distal edge of the Bragg peak and beyond. We sought to develop a multiscale model to account for non-linear response phenomena to aid in the optimization of intensity-modulated proton therapy. Methods: The model is based on first-principle simulations of proton track structures, including secondary ions, and an analytical derivation of the dependence on particle LET of the linear-quadratic (LQ) model parameters α and β. The derived formulas are an extension of the microdosimetric kineticmore » (MK) model that captures dissipative track structures and non-Poissonian distribution of DNA damage at the distal edge of the Bragg peak and beyond. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to confirm the non-linear dose-response characteristics arising from the non-Poisson distribution of initial DNA damage. Results: In contrast to low LET segments of the proton depth dose, from the beam entrance to the Bragg peak, strong deviations from non-dissipative track structures and Poisson distribution in the ionization events in the Bragg peak distal edge govern the non-linear cell response and result in the transformation α=(1+c-1 L) α-x+2(c-0 L+c-2 L^2 )(1+c-1 L) β-x and β=(1+c-1 L)^2 β-x. Here L is the charged particle LET, and c-0,c-1, and c-2 are functions of microscopic parameters and can be served as fitting parameters to the cell-survival data. In the low LET limit c-1, and c-2 are negligible hence the linear model proposed and used by Wilkins-Oelfke for the proton treatment planning system can be retrieved. The present model fits well the recent clonogenic survival data measured recently in our group in MDACC. Conclusion: The present hybrid method provides higher accuracy in calculating the RBE-weighted dose in the target and normal tissues.« less

PubMed

Trinker, Horst

2011-10-28

We study the distribution of triples of codewords of codes and ordered codes. Schrijver [A. Schrijver, New code upper bounds from the Terwilliger algebra and semidefinite programming, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 51 (8) (2005) 2859-2866] used the triple distribution of a code to establish a bound on the number of codewords based on semidefinite programming. In the first part of this work, we generalize this approach for ordered codes. In the second part, we consider linear codes and linear ordered codes and present a MacWilliams-type identity for the triple distribution of their dual code. Based on the non-negativity of this linear transform, we establish a linear programming bound and conclude with a table of parameters for which this bound yields better results than the standard linear programming bound.

Realization of non-linear coherent states by photonic lattices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dehdashti, Shahram, E-mail: shdehdashti@zju.edu.cn; Li, Rujiang; Chen, Hongsheng, E-mail: hansomchen@zju.edu.cn

2015-06-15

In this paper, first, by introducing Holstein-Primakoff representation of α-deformed algebra, we achieve the associated non-linear coherent states, including su(2) and su(1, 1) coherent states. Second, by using waveguide lattices with specific coupling coefficients between neighbouring channels, we generate these non-linear coherent states. In the case of positive values of α, we indicate that the Hilbert size space is finite; therefore, we construct this coherent state with finite channels of waveguide lattices. Finally, we study the field distribution behaviours of these coherent states, by using Mandel Q parameter.

Effect of Nozzle Nonlinearities upon Nonlinear Stability of Liquid Propellant Rocket Motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padmanabhan, M. S.; Powell, E. A.; Zinn, B. T.

1975-01-01

A three dimensional, nonlinear nozzle admittance relation is developed by solving the wave equation describing finite amplitude oscillatory flow inside the subsonic portion of a choked, slowly convergent axisymmetric nozzle. This nonlinear nozzle admittance relation is then used as a boundary condition in the analysis of nonlinear combustion instability in a cylindrical liquid rocket combustor. In both nozzle and chamber analyses solutions are obtained using the Galerkin method with a series expansion consisting of the first tangential, second tangential, and first radial modes. Using Crocco's time lag model to describe the distributed unsteady combustion process, combustion instability calculations are presented for different values of the following parameters: (1) time lag, (2) interaction index, (3) steady-state Mach number at the nozzle entrance, and (4) chamber length-to-diameter ratio. In each case, limit cycle pressure amplitudes and waveforms are shown for both linear and nonlinear nozzle admittance conditions. These results show that when the amplitudes of the second tangential and first radial modes are considerably smaller than the amplitude of the first tangential mode the inclusion of nozzle nonlinearities has no significant effect on the limiting amplitude and pressure waveforms.

Radio pulsar glitches as a state-dependent Poisson process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulgenzi, W.; Melatos, A.; Hughes, B. D.

2017-10-01

Gross-Pitaevskii simulations of vortex avalanches in a neutron star superfluid are limited computationally to ≲102 vortices and ≲102 avalanches, making it hard to study the long-term statistics of radio pulsar glitches in realistically sized systems. Here, an idealized, mean-field model of the observed Gross-Pitaevskii dynamics is presented, in which vortex unpinning is approximated as a state-dependent, compound Poisson process in a single random variable, the spatially averaged crust-superfluid lag. Both the lag-dependent Poisson rate and the conditional distribution of avalanche-driven lag decrements are inputs into the model, which is solved numerically (via Monte Carlo simulations) and analytically (via a master equation). The output statistics are controlled by two dimensionless free parameters: α, the glitch rate at a reference lag, multiplied by the critical lag for unpinning, divided by the spin-down rate; and β, the minimum fraction of the lag that can be restored by a glitch. The system evolves naturally to a self-regulated stationary state, whose properties are determined by α/αc(β), where αc(β) ≈ β-1/2 is a transition value. In the regime α ≳ αc(β), one recovers qualitatively the power-law size and exponential waiting-time distributions observed in many radio pulsars and Gross-Pitaevskii simulations. For α ≪ αc(β), the size and waiting-time distributions are both power-law-like, and a correlation emerges between size and waiting time until the next glitch, contrary to what is observed in most pulsars. Comparisons with astrophysical data are restricted by the small sample sizes available at present, with ≤35 events observed per pulsar.

Experimental Determination of Linear Dynamics of Two-Spool Turbojet Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Novik, David; Heppler, Herbert

1954-01-01

Transfer functions descriptive of the response of most engine variables were determined from transient data that were obtained from approximate step inputs in fuel flow and in exhaust-nozzle area. The speed responses of both spools to fuel flow and to turbine-inlet temperature appeared as identical first-order lags. Response to exhaust-nozzle area was characterized by a first-order lag response of the outer-spool speed, accompanied by virtually no change in inner-spool speed.

Non-Gaussian statistics of soliton timing jitter induced by amplifier noise.

PubMed

Ho, Keang-Po

2003-11-15

Based on first-order perturbation theory of the soliton, the Gordon-Haus timing jitter induced by amplifier noise is found to be non-Gaussian distributed. Both frequency and timing jitter have larger tail probabilities than Gaussian distribution given by the linearized perturbation theory. The timing jitter has a larger discrepancy from Gaussian distribution than does the frequency jitter.

Modelling malaria incidence by an autoregressive distributed lag model with spatial component.

PubMed

Laguna, Francisco; Grillet, María Eugenia; León, José R; Ludeña, Carenne

2017-08-01

The influence of climatic variables on the dynamics of human malaria has been widely highlighted. Also, it is known that this mosquito-borne infection varies in space and time. However, when the data is spatially incomplete most popular spatio-temporal methods of analysis cannot be applied directly. In this paper, we develop a two step methodology to model the spatio-temporal dependence of malaria incidence on local rainfall, temperature, and humidity as well as the regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern coast of Venezuela. First, we fit an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to the weekly data, and then, we adjust a linear separable spacial vectorial autoregressive model (VAR) to the residuals of the ARDL. Finally, the model parameters are tuned using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure derived from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Our results show that the best model to account for the variations of malaria incidence from 2001 to 2008 in 10 endemic Municipalities in North-Eastern Venezuela is a logit model that included the accumulated local precipitation in combination with the local maximum temperature of the preceding month as positive regressors. Additionally, we show that although malaria dynamics is highly heterogeneous in space, a detailed analysis of the estimated spatial parameters in our model yield important insights regarding the joint behavior of the disease incidence across the different counties in our study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing rainfall of hot arid region by using time-series modeling and sustainability approaches: a case study from Gujarat, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Kumar, Sanjay; Dayal, Devi

2016-05-01

This study aimed at characterization of rainfall dynamics in a hot arid region of Gujarat, India by employing time-series modeling techniques and sustainability approach. Five characteristics, i.e., normality, stationarity, homogeneity, presence/absence of trend, and persistence of 34-year (1980-2013) period annual rainfall time series of ten stations were identified/detected by applying multiple parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. Furthermore, the study involves novelty of proposing sustainability concept for evaluating rainfall time series and demonstrated the concept, for the first time, by identifying the most sustainable rainfall series following reliability ( R y), resilience ( R e), and vulnerability ( V y) approach. Box-whisker plots, normal probability plots, and histograms indicated that the annual rainfall of Mandvi and Dayapar stations is relatively more positively skewed and non-normal compared with that of other stations, which is due to the presence of severe outlier and extreme. Results of Shapiro-Wilk test and Lilliefors test revealed that annual rainfall series of all stations significantly deviated from normal distribution. Two parametric t tests and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test indicated significant non-stationarity in annual rainfall of Rapar station, where the rainfall was also found to be non-homogeneous based on the results of four parametric homogeneity tests. Four trend tests indicated significantly increasing rainfall trends at Rapar and Gandhidham stations. The autocorrelation analysis suggested the presence of persistence of statistically significant nature in rainfall series of Bhachau (3-year time lag), Mundra (1- and 9-year time lag), Nakhatrana (9-year time lag), and Rapar (3- and 4-year time lag). Results of sustainability approach indicated that annual rainfall of Mundra and Naliya stations ( R y = 0.50 and 0.44; R e = 0.47 and 0.47; V y = 0.49 and 0.46, respectively) are the most sustainable and dependable compared with that of other stations. The highest values of sustainability index at Mundra (0.120) and Naliya (0.112) stations confirmed the earlier findings of R y- R e- V y approach. In general, annual rainfall of the study area is less reliable, less resilient, and moderately vulnerable, which emphasizes the need of developing suitable strategies for managing water resources of the area on sustainable basis. Finally, it is recommended that multiple statistical tests (at least two) should be used in time-series modeling for making reliable decisions. Moreover, methodology and findings of the sustainability concept in rainfall time series can easily be adopted in other arid regions of the world.

Carbon dioxide emissions, output, and energy consumption categories in Algeria.

PubMed

Amri, Fethi

2017-06-01

This study examines the relation between CO 2 emissions, income, non-renewable, and renewable energy consumption in Algeria during the period extending from 1980 to 2011. Our work gives particular attention to the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) with break point method outcome demonstrates the positive effect of non-renewable type of energy on CO 2 emissions consumption. On the contrary, the results reveal an insignificant effect of renewable energy on environment improvement. Moreover, the results accept the existence of EKC hypothesis but the highest gross domestic product value in logarithm scale of our data is inferior to the estimated turning point. Consequently, policy-makers in Algeria should expand the ratio of renewable energy and should decrease the quota of non-renewable energy consumption.

The impact of relative humidity and atmospheric pressure on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Ou, Chun Quan; Yang, Jun; Ou, Qiao Qun; Liu, Hua Zhang; Lin, Guo Zhen; Chen, Ping Yan; Qian, Jun; Guo, Yu Ming

2014-12-01

Although many studies have examined the effects of ambient temperatures on mortality, little evidence is on health impacts of atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. This study aimed to assess the impacts of atmospheric pressure and relative humidity on mortality in Guangzhou, China. This study included 213,737 registered deaths during 2003-2011 in Guangzhou, China. A quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the effects of atmospheric pressure/relative humidity. We found significant effect of low atmospheric pressure/relative humidity on mortality. There was a 1.79% (95% confidence interval: 0.38%-3.22%) increase in non-accidental mortality and a 2.27% (0.07%-4.51%) increase in cardiovascular mortality comparing the 5th and 25th percentile of atmospheric pressure. A 3.97% (0.67%-7.39%) increase in cardiovascular mortality was also observed comparing the 5th and 25th percentile of relative humidity. Women were more vulnerable to decrease in atmospheric pressure and relative humidity than men. Age and education attainment were also potential effect modifiers. Furthermore, low atmospheric pressure and relative humidity increased temperature-related mortality. Both low atmospheric pressure and relative humidity are important risk factors of mortality. Our findings would be helpful to develop health risk assessment and climate policy interventions that would better protect vulnerable subgroups of the population. Copyright © 2014 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

European regional efficiency and geographical externalities: a spatial nonparametric frontier analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramajo, Julián; Cordero, José Manuel; Márquez, Miguel Ángel

2017-10-01

This paper analyses region-level technical efficiency in nine European countries over the 1995-2007 period. We propose the application of a nonparametric conditional frontier approach to account for the presence of heterogeneous conditions in the form of geographical externalities. Such environmental factors are beyond the control of regional authorities, but may affect the production function. Therefore, they need to be considered in the frontier estimation. Specifically, a spatial autoregressive term is included as an external conditioning factor in a robust order- m model. Thus we can test the hypothesis of non-separability (the external factor impacts both the input-output space and the distribution of efficiencies), demonstrating the existence of significant global interregional spillovers into the production process. Our findings show that geographical externalities affect both the frontier level and the probability of being more or less efficient. Specifically, the results support the fact that the spatial lag variable has an inverted U-shaped non-linear impact on the performance of regions. This finding can be interpreted as a differential effect of interregional spillovers depending on the size of the neighboring economies: positive externalities for small values, possibly related to agglomeration economies, and negative externalities for high values, indicating the possibility of production congestion. Additionally, evidence of the existence of a strong geographic pattern of European regional efficiency is reported and the levels of technical efficiency are acknowledged to have converged during the period under analysis.

Association of Interleukin-17 polymorphism (-197G/A) in chronic and localized aggressive periodontitis.

PubMed

Chaudhari, Harshal Liladhar; Warad, Shivaraj; Ashok, Nipun; Baroudi, Kusai; Tarakji, Bassel

2016-01-01

Interleukin 17(IL-17) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine produced mainly by Th17 cells. The present study was undertaken to investigate a possible association between IL-17 A genetic polymorphism at (-197A/G) and susceptibility to chronic and localized aggressive periodontitis (LAgP) in an Indian population. The study was carried out on 105 subjects, which included 35 LAgP patients, 35 chronic periodontitis patients and 35 healthy controls. Blood samples were drawn from the subjects and analyzed for IL-17 genetic polymorphism at (-197A/G), by using the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method. A statistically significant difference was seen in the genotype distribution among chronic periodontitis patients, LAgP patients and healthy subjects. There was a significant difference in the distribution of alleles among chronic periodontitis patients, LAgP patients and healthy subjects. The odds ratio for A allele versus G allele was 5.1 between chronic periodontitis patients and healthy controls, and 5.1 between LAgp patients and healthy controls. Our study concluded that IL-17 A gene polymorphism at (-197A/G) is linked to chronic periodontitis and LAgP in Indian population. The presence of allele A in the IL-17 gene polymorphism (-197A/G) can be considered a risk factor for chronic periodontitis and LAgP.

Analysis of stability and bifurcations of fixed points and periodic solutions of a lumped model of neocortex with two delays

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

A lumped model of neural activity in neocortex is studied to identify regions of multi-stability of both steady states and periodic solutions. Presence of both steady states and periodic solutions is considered to correspond with epileptogenesis. The model, which consists of two delay differential equations with two fixed time lags is mainly studied for its dependency on varying connection strength between populations. Equilibria are identified, and using linear stability analysis, all transitions are determined under which both trivial and non-trivial fixed points lose stability. Periodic solutions arising at some of these bifurcations are numerically studied with a two-parameter bifurcation analysis. PMID:22655859

Response statistics of rotating shaft with non-linear elastic restoring forces by path integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaidai, Oleg; Naess, Arvid; Dimentberg, Michael

2017-07-01

Extreme statistics of random vibrations is studied for a Jeffcott rotor under uniaxial white noise excitation. Restoring force is modelled as elastic non-linear; comparison is done with linearized restoring force to see the force non-linearity effect on the response statistics. While for the linear model analytical solutions and stability conditions are available, it is not generally the case for non-linear system except for some special cases. The statistics of non-linear case is studied by applying path integration (PI) method, which is based on the Markov property of the coupled dynamic system. The Jeffcott rotor response statistics can be obtained by solving the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation of the 4D dynamic system. An efficient implementation of PI algorithm is applied, namely fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used to simulate dynamic system additive noise. The latter allows significantly reduce computational time, compared to the classical PI. Excitation is modelled as Gaussian white noise, however any kind distributed white noise can be implemented with the same PI technique. Also multidirectional Markov noise can be modelled with PI in the same way as unidirectional. PI is accelerated by using Monte Carlo (MC) estimated joint probability density function (PDF) as initial input. Symmetry of dynamic system was utilized to afford higher mesh resolution. Both internal (rotating) and external damping are included in mechanical model of the rotor. The main advantage of using PI rather than MC is that PI offers high accuracy in the probability distribution tail. The latter is of critical importance for e.g. extreme value statistics, system reliability, and first passage probability.

Vertical Distribution of Radiation Stress for Non-linear Shoaling Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, B. M.; Slinn, D. N.

2004-12-01

The flux of momentum directed shoreward by an incident wave field, commonly referred to as the radiation stress, plays a significant role in nearshore circulation and, therefore, has a profound impact on the transport of pollutants, biota, and sediment in nearshore systems. Having received much attention since the seminal work of Longuet-Higgins and Stewart in the early 1960's, use of the radiation stress concept continues to be refined and evidence of its utility is widespread in literature pertaining to coastal and ocean science. A number of investigations, both numerical and analytical in nature, have used the concept of the radiation stress to derive appropriate forcing mechanisms that initiate cross-shore and longshore circulation, but typically in a depth-averaged sense due to a lack of information concerning the vertical distribution of the wave stresses. While depth-averaged nearshore circulation models are still widely used today, advancements in technology have permitted the adaptation of three-dimensional (3D) modeling techniques to study flow properties of complex nearshore circulation systems. It has been shown that the resulting circulation in these 3D models is very sensitive to the vertical distribution of the nearshore forcing, which have often been implemented as either depth-uniform or depth-linear distributions. Recently, analytical expressions describing the vertical structure of radiation stress components have appeared in the literature (see Mellor, 2003; Xia et al., 2004) but do not fully describe the magnitude and structure in the region bound by the trough and crest of non-linear, propagating waves. Utilizing a three-dimensional, non-linear, numerical model that resolves the time-dependent free surface, we present mean flow properties resulting from a simulation of Visser's (1984, 1991) laboratory experiment on uniform longshore currents. More specifically, we provide information regarding the vertical distribution of radiation stress components (Sxx and Sxy) resulting from obliquely incident, non-linear shoaling waves. Vertical profiles of the radiation stress components predicted by the numerical model are compared with published analytical solutions, expressions given by linear theory, and observations from an investigation employing second-order cnoidal wave theory.

Fleet Assignment Using Collective Intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antoine, Nicolas E.; Bieniawski, Stefan R.; Kroo, Ilan M.; Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

Product distribution theory is a new collective intelligence-based framework for analyzing and controlling distributed systems. Its usefulness in distributed stochastic optimization is illustrated here through an airline fleet assignment problem. This problem involves the allocation of aircraft to a set of flights legs in order to meet passenger demand, while satisfying a variety of linear and non-linear constraints. Over the course of the day, the routing of each aircraft is determined in order to minimize the number of required flights for a given fleet. The associated flow continuity and aircraft count constraints have led researchers to focus on obtaining quasi-optimal solutions, especially at larger scales. In this paper, the authors propose the application of this new stochastic optimization algorithm to a non-linear objective cold start fleet assignment problem. Results show that the optimizer can successfully solve such highly-constrained problems (130 variables, 184 constraints).

Is greater temperature change within a day associated with increased emergency admissions for schizophrenia?

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xie, Mingyu; Cheng, Jian; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2016-10-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR), as an important index of climate change, has been increasingly used to evaluate the impacts of temperature variability on human health. However, little is known about the effects of DTR on schizophrenia. The present study aims to examine the relationship between DTR and schizophrenia admissions, and further, to explore whether the association varied by individual characteristics and study periods. A Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to analyze daily DTR and schizophrenia data from Hefei, China during 2005 to 2014, after adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, mean temperature, relative humidity and other confounding factors. An acute adverse effect of extremely high DTR on schizophrenia was observed, with a 2.7% (95% CI: 1.007-1.047) increase of daily schizophrenia admissions after exposure to extremely high DTR (95th percentile vs. 50th percentile). The risk for schizophrenia onset due to large DTR exposure increased from the first five years (2005-2009) to the second five years (2010-2014). Additionally, the patient aged 15-29 and 50-64years, male patients, patients born in spring/autumn, and married patients appeared to be more vulnerable to DTR effect. However, there was no significant association between moderately high DTR (75th percentile) and schizophrenia. This study suggests that extremely high DTR is a potential trigger for schizophrenia admissions in Hefei, China. Our findings may provide valuable information to decisions-makers and guidance to health practitioners. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cosmological velocity correlations - Observations and model predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorski, Krzysztof M.; Davis, Marc; Strauss, Michael A.; White, Simon D. M.; Yahil, Amos

1989-01-01

By applying the present simple statistics for two-point cosmological peculiar velocity-correlation measurements to the actual data sets of the Local Supercluster spiral galaxy of Aaronson et al. (1982) and the elliptical galaxy sample of Burstein et al. (1987), as well as to the velocity field predicted by the distribution of IRAS galaxies, a coherence length of 1100-1600 km/sec is obtained. Coherence length is defined as that separation at which the correlations drop to half their zero-lag value. These results are compared with predictions from two models of large-scale structure formation: that of cold dark matter and that of baryon isocurvature proposed by Peebles (1980). N-body simulations of these models are performed to check the linear theory predictions and measure sampling fluctuations.

Discovery of a Time Lag between the Soft X-Ray and Radio Emission of the Tidal Disruption Flare ASASSN-14li: Evidence for Linear Disk–Jet Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasham, Dheeraj R.; van Velzen, Sjoert

2018-03-01

The tidal disruption of a star by a supermassive black hole can result in transient radio emission. The electrons producing these synchrotron radio flares could either be accelerated inside a relativistic jet or externally by shocks resulting from an outflow interacting with the circumnuclear medium. Until now, evidence for the internal emission mechanism has been lacking; nearly all tidal disruption flare studies have adopted the external shock model to explain the observed properties of radio flares. Here we report a result that presents a challenge to external emission models: we discovered a cross-correlation between the soft X-ray (0.3–1 keV) and 16 GHz radio flux of the tidal disruption flare ASASSN-14li. Variability features in the X-ray light curve appear again in the radio light curve, but after a time lag of {12}-5+6 days. This demonstrates that the soft X-ray-emitting accretion disk regulates the radio emission. This coupling appears to be inconsistent with all previous external emission models for this source but is naturally explained if the radio emission originates from a freely expanding jet. We show that emission internal to an adiabatically expanding jet can also reproduce the observed evolution of the radio spectral energy distribution. Furthermore, both the correlation between X-ray and radio luminosity as well as our radio spectral modeling imply an approximately linear coupling between the accretion rate and jet power.

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia.

PubMed

Revich, Boris; Shaposhnikov, Dmitri

2008-05-01

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality-temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18 degrees C. Each 1 degree C increment of average daily temperature above 18 degrees C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1 degrees C drop of average daily temperature from +18 degrees C to -10 degrees C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13-30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1 degrees C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3-1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revich, Boris; Shaposhnikov, Dmitri

2008-05-01

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18°C. Each 1°C increment of average daily temperature above 18°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1°C drop of average daily temperature from +18°C to -10°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13 30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1°C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3 1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.

Air pollutants and atmospheric pressure increased risk of ED visit for spontaneous pneumothorax.

PubMed

Park, Joo Hyung; Lee, Sun Hwa; Yun, Seong Jong; Ryu, Seokyong; Choi, Seung Woon; Kim, Hye Jin; Kang, Tae Kyung; Oh, Sung Chan; Cho, Suk Jin

2018-04-14

To investigate the impact of short-term exposure to air pollutants and meteorological variation on ED visits for primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP). We retrospectively identified PSP cases that presented at the ED of our tertiary center between January 2015 and September 2016. We classified the days into three types: no PSP day (0 case/day), sporadic days (1-2 cases/day), and cluster days (PSP, ≥3 cases/day). Association between the daily incidence of PSP with air pollutants and meteorological data were determined using Poisson generalized-linear-model to calculate incidence rate ratio (IRRs) and the use of time-series (lag-1 [the cumulative air pollution level on the previous day of PSP], lag-2 [two days ago], and lag-3 [three days ago]). Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, O 3 (p = 0.010), NO 2 (p = 0.047), particulate matters (PM) 10 (p = 0.021), and PM 2.5 (p = 0.008) were significant factors of PSP occurrence. When the concentration of O 3 , NO 2 , PM 10 , and PM 2.5 were increased, PSP IRRs increased approximately 15, 16, 3, and 5-fold, respectively. With the time-series analyses, atmospheric pressure in lag-3 was significantly lower and in lag-2, was significantly higher in PSP days compared with no PSP days. Among air pollutant concentrations, O 3 in lag-1 (p = 0.017) and lag-2 (p = 0.038), NO 2 in lag-1 (p = 0.015) and lag-2 (p = 0.009), PM 10 in lag-1 (p = 0.012), and PM 2.5 in lag-1 (p = 0.021) and lag-2 (p = 0.032) were significantly different between no PSP and PSP days. Increased concentrations of air pollutants and abrupt change in atmospheric pressure were significantly associated with increased IRR of PSP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Lavigne, Eric; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Rocklöv, Joacim; Forsberg, Bertil; Leone, Michela; De Sario, Manuela; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-fu; Kan, Haidong; Yi, Seung-Muk; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Armstrong, Ben

2015-01-01

Summary Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. Funding UK Medical Research Council. PMID:26003380

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

2018-01-01

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

Stall flutter experiment in a transonic oscillating linear cascade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boldman, D. R.; Buggele, A. E.; Michalson, G. M.

1981-01-01

Two dimensional biconvex airfoils were oscillated at reduced frequencies up to 0.5 based on semi-chord and a free stream Mach number of 0.80 to simulate transonic stall flutter in rotors. Steady-state periodicity was confirmed through end-wall pressure measurements, exit flow traverses, and flow visualization. The initial flow visualization results from flutter tests indicated that the oscillating shock on the airfoils lagged the airfoil motion by as much as 80 deg. These initial data exhibited an appreciable amount of scatter; however, a linear fit of the results indicated that the greatest shock phase lag occurred at a positive interblade phase angle. Photographs of the steady-state and unsteady flow fields reveal some of the features of the lambda shock wave on the suction surface of the airfoils.

Shape of growth-rate distribution determines the type of Non-Gibrat’s Property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishikawa, Atushi; Fujimoto, Shouji; Mizuno, Takayuki

2011-11-01

In this study, the authors examine exhaustive business data on Japanese firms, which cover nearly all companies in the mid- and large-scale ranges in terms of firm size, to reach several key findings on profits/sales distribution and business growth trends. Here, profits denote net profits. First, detailed balance is observed not only in profits data but also in sales data. Furthermore, the growth-rate distribution of sales has wider tails than the linear growth-rate distribution of profits in log-log scale. On the one hand, in the mid-scale range of profits, the probability of positive growth decreases and the probability of negative growth increases symmetrically as the initial value increases. This is called Non-Gibrat’s First Property. On the other hand, in the mid-scale range of sales, the probability of positive growth decreases as the initial value increases, while the probability of negative growth hardly changes. This is called Non-Gibrat’s Second Property. Under detailed balance, Non-Gibrat’s First and Second Properties are analytically derived from the linear and quadratic growth-rate distributions in log-log scale, respectively. In both cases, the log-normal distribution is inferred from Non-Gibrat’s Properties and detailed balance. These analytic results are verified by empirical data. Consequently, this clarifies the notion that the difference in shapes between growth-rate distributions of sales and profits is closely related to the difference between the two Non-Gibrat’s Properties in the mid-scale range.

The collagen structure of equine articular cartilage characterized using polarization-sensitive optical coherence tomography and non-linear microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansfield, Jessica C.; Ugryumova, Nadya; Knapp, Karen M.; Matcher, Stephen J.

2006-09-01

Equine articular cartilage has been imaged using both polarization-sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) and non-linear microscopy. PS-OCT has been used to spatially map the birefringence in the cartilage and we have found that in the vicinity of the lesion the images display a characteristic disruption in the regular birefringence bands shown by normal cartilage. We also note that significant (e.g. x2) variations in the apparent birefringence of samples taken from young (18 month) animals that otherwise appear visually homogeneous are found over spatial scales of a few millimeters. We have also imaged the cartilage using non-linear microscopy and compare the scans taken with second harmonic generation (SHG) light and the two photon fluorescence (TPF) light. SHG images collected using 800 nm excitation reveals the spatial distribution of collagen fibers, whilst TPF images clearly shows the distribution of intracellular and pericellular fluorophores.

Developing GIS-based eastern equine encephalitis vector-host models in Tuskegee, Alabama.

PubMed

Jacob, Benjamin G; Burkett-Cadena, Nathan D; Luvall, Jeffrey C; Parcak, Sarah H; McClure, Christopher J W; Estep, Laura K; Hill, Geoffrey E; Cupp, Eddie W; Novak, Robert J; Unnasch, Thomas R

2010-02-24

A site near Tuskegee, Alabama was examined for vector-host activities of eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus (EEEV). Land cover maps of the study site were created in ArcInfo 9.2 from QuickBird data encompassing visible and near-infrared (NIR) band information (0.45 to 0.72 microm) acquired July 15, 2008. Georeferenced mosquito and bird sampling sites, and their associated land cover attributes from the study site, were overlaid onto the satellite data. SAS 9.1.4 was used to explore univariate statistics and to generate regression models using the field and remote-sampled mosquito and bird data. Regression models indicated that Culex erracticus and Northern Cardinals were the most abundant mosquito and bird species, respectively. Spatial linear prediction models were then generated in Geostatistical Analyst Extension of ArcGIS 9.2. Additionally, a model of the study site was generated, based on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), using ArcScene extension of ArcGIS 9.2. For total mosquito count data, a first-order trend ordinary kriging process was fitted to the semivariogram at a partial sill of 5.041 km, nugget of 6.325 km, lag size of 7.076 km, and range of 31.43 km, using 12 lags. For total adult Cx. erracticus count, a first-order trend ordinary kriging process was fitted to the semivariogram at a partial sill of 5.764 km, nugget of 6.114 km, lag size of 7.472 km, and range of 32.62 km, using 12 lags. For the total bird count data, a first-order trend ordinary kriging process was fitted to the semivariogram at a partial sill of 4.998 km, nugget of 5.413 km, lag size of 7.549 km and range of 35.27 km, using 12 lags. For the Northern Cardinal count data, a first-order trend ordinary kriging process was fitted to the semivariogram at a partial sill of 6.387 km, nugget of 5.935 km, lag size of 8.549 km and a range of 41.38 km, using 12 lags. Results of the DEM analyses indicated a statistically significant inverse linear relationship between total sampled mosquito data and elevation (R2 = -.4262; p < .0001), with a standard deviation (SD) of 10.46, and total sampled bird data and elevation (R2 = -.5111; p < .0001), with a SD of 22.97. DEM statistics also indicated a significant inverse linear relationship between total sampled Cx. erracticus data and elevation (R2 = -.4711; p < .0001), with a SD of 11.16, and the total sampled Northern Cardinal data and elevation (R2 = -.5831; p < .0001), SD of 11.42. These data demonstrate that GIS/remote sensing models and spatial statistics can capture space-varying functional relationships between field-sampled mosquito and bird parameters for determining risk for EEEV transmission.

Redshift-space distortions with the halo occupation distribution - II. Analytic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jeremy L.

2007-01-01

We present an analytic model for the galaxy two-point correlation function in redshift space. The cosmological parameters of the model are the matter density Ωm, power spectrum normalization σ8, and velocity bias of galaxies αv, circumventing the linear theory distortion parameter β and eliminating nuisance parameters for non-linearities. The model is constructed within the framework of the halo occupation distribution (HOD), which quantifies galaxy bias on linear and non-linear scales. We model one-halo pairwise velocities by assuming that satellite galaxy velocities follow a Gaussian distribution with dispersion proportional to the virial dispersion of the host halo. Two-halo velocity statistics are a combination of virial motions and host halo motions. The velocity distribution function (DF) of halo pairs is a complex function with skewness and kurtosis that vary substantially with scale. Using a series of collisionless N-body simulations, we demonstrate that the shape of the velocity DF is determined primarily by the distribution of local densities around a halo pair, and at fixed density the velocity DF is close to Gaussian and nearly independent of halo mass. We calibrate a model for the conditional probability function of densities around halo pairs on these simulations. With this model, the full shape of the halo velocity DF can be accurately calculated as a function of halo mass, radial separation, angle and cosmology. The HOD approach to redshift-space distortions utilizes clustering data from linear to non-linear scales to break the standard degeneracies inherent in previous models of redshift-space clustering. The parameters of the occupation function are well constrained by real-space clustering alone, separating constraints on bias and cosmology. We demonstrate the ability of the model to separately constrain Ωm,σ8 and αv in models that are constructed to have the same value of β at large scales as well as the same finger-of-god distortions at small scales.

Lagging skills contribute to challenging behaviors in children with autism spectrum disorder without intellectual disability.

PubMed

Maddox, Brenna B; Cleary, Patrick; Kuschner, Emily S; Miller, Judith S; Armour, Anna Chelsea; Guy, Lisa; Kenworthy, Lauren; Schultz, Robert T; Yerys, Benjamin E

2017-08-01

Many children with autism spectrum disorder display challenging behaviors. These behaviors are not limited to those with cognitive and/or language impairments. The Collaborative and Proactive Solutions framework proposes that challenging behaviors result from an incompatibility between environmental demands and a child's "lagging skills." The primary Collaborative and Proactive Solutions lagging skills-executive function, emotion regulation, language, and social skills-are often areas of weakness for individuals with autism spectrum disorder. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether these lagging skills are associated with challenging behaviors in youth with autism spectrum disorder without intellectual disability. Parents of 182 youth with autism spectrum disorder (6-15 years) completed measures of their children's challenging behaviors, executive function, language, emotion regulation, and social skills. We tested whether the Collaborative and Proactive Solutions lagging skills predicted challenging behaviors using multiple linear regression. The Collaborative and Proactive Solutions lagging skills explained significant variance in participants' challenging behaviors. The Depression (emotion regulation), Inhibit (executive function), and Sameness (executive function) scales emerged as significant predictors. Impairments in emotion regulation and executive function may contribute substantially to aggressive and oppositional behaviors in school-age youth with autism spectrum disorder without intellectual disability. Treatment for challenging behaviors in this group may consider targeting the incompatibility between environmental demands and a child's lagging skills.

Autonomous Non-Linear Classification of LPI Radar Signal Modulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

Wigner - Ville distribution ( WVD ), the Choi-Williams distribution (CWD) and a Quadrature...accomplished using the images from the Wigner - Ville distribution and the Choi-Williams distribution for polyphase modulations. For the WVD images, radon...this work. Four detection techniques including the Wigner - Ville distribution ( WVD ), the Choi-Williams distribution (CWD), Quadrature Mirror

Heatwave and risk of hospitalization: A multi-province study in Vietnam.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Chu, Cordia; Rutherford, Shannon; Nguyen, Huong Lien Thi; Do, Cuong Manh; Huang, Cunrui

2017-01-01

The effects of heatwaves on morbidity in developing and tropical countries have not been well explored. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between heatwaves and hospitalization and the potential influence of socio-economic factors on this relationship in Vietnam. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with Poisson family and Distributed Lag Models (DLM) were applied to evaluate the effect of heatwaves for each province (province-level effect). A random-effects meta-analysis was applied to calculate the pooled estimates (country-level effects) for 'all causes', infectious, cardiovascular, and respiratory admissions queried by lag days, regions, sex, and ages. We used random-effects meta-regression to explore the potential influence of socio-economic factors on the relationship between heatwaves and hospitalization. The size of province-level effects varied across provinces. The pooled estimates show that heatwaves were significantly associated with a 2.5% (95%CI: 0.8-4.3) and 3.8% (95%CI, 1.5-6.2) increase in all causes and infectious admissions at lag 0. Cardiovascular and respiratory admissions (0.8%, 95%CI: -1.6-3.3; 2.2%, 95%CI: -0.7-5.2) were not significantly increased after a heatwave event. The risk of hospitalization due to heatwaves was higher in the North than in the South for all causes (5.4%, 95%CI: -0.1-11.5 versus 1.3%, 95%CI: 0.1-2.6), infectious (11.2%, 95%CI: 3.1-19.9 versus 3.2%, 95%CI: 0.7-5.7), cardiovascular (7.5%, 95%CI: 1.1-14.4 versus -1.2%, 95%CI: -2.6-2.3), and respiratory diseases (2.7%, 95%CI: -5.4-11.5 versus 2.1%, 95%CI: -0.8-1.2). A non-significant influence of socio-economic factors on the relationship between heatwave and hospitalization was observed. This study provides important evidence and suggests implications for the projected impacts of climate change related extreme weather. Climate change adaptation programs of the health sector should be developed to protect residents from the effects of extreme weather events such as heatwaves in Vietnam. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non steady-state descriptions of drug permeation through stratum corneum. I. The biphasic brick-and-mortar model.

PubMed

Heisig, M; Lieckfeldt, R; Wittum, G; Mazurkevich, G; Lee, G

1996-03-01

The diffusion equation should be solved for the non-steady-state problem of drug diffusion within a two-dimensional, biphasic stratum corneum membrane having homogeneous lipid and corneocyte phases. A numerical method was developed for a brick-and-mortar SC-geometry, enabling an explicit solution for time-dependent drug concentration within both phases. The lag time and permeability were calculated. It is shown how the barrier property of this model membrane depends on relative phase permeability, corneocyte alignment, and corneocyte-lipid partition coefficient. Additionally, the time-dependent drug concentration profiles within the membrane can be observed during the lag and steady-state phases. The model SC-membrane predicts, from purely morphological principles, lag times and permeabilities that are in good agreement with experimental values. The long lag times and very small permeabilities reported for human SC can only be predicted for a highly-staggered corneocyte geometry and corneocytes that are 1000 times less permeable than the lipid phase. Although the former conclusion is reasonable, the latter is questionable. The elongated, flattened corneocyte shape renders lag time and permeability insensitive to large changes in their alignment within the SC. Corneocyte/lipid partitioning is found to be fundamentally different to SC/donor partitioning, since increasing drug lipophilicity always reduces both lag time and permeability.

Effect of wire size on maxillary arch force/couple systems for a simulated high canine malocclusion.

PubMed

Major, Paul W; Toogood, Roger W; Badawi, Hisham M; Carey, Jason P; Seru, Surbhi

2014-12-01

To better understand the effects of copper nickel titanium (CuNiTi) archwire size on bracket-archwire mechanics through the analysis of force/couple distributions along the maxillary arch. The hypothesis is that wire size is linearly related to the forces and moments produced along the arch. An Orthodontic Simulator was utilized to study a simplified high canine malocclusion. Force/couple distributions produced by passive and elastic ligation using two wire sizes (Damon 0.014 and 0.018 inch) measured with a sample size of 144. The distribution and variation in force/couple loading around the arch is a complicated function of wire size. The use of a thicker wire increases the force/couple magnitudes regardless of ligation method. Owing to the non-linear material behaviour of CuNiTi, this increase is less than would occur based on linear theory as would apply for stainless steel wires. The results demonstrate that an increase in wire size does not result in a proportional increase of applied force/moment. This discrepancy is explained in terms of the non-linear properties of CuNiTi wires. This non-proportional force response in relation to increased wire size warrants careful consideration when selecting wires in a clinical setting. © 2014 British Orthodontic Society.

Spatial and temporal variation in emergency transport during periods of extreme heat in Japan: A nationwide study.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2016-02-15

Several studies have reported the burden of climate change on extreme heat-related mortality or morbidity. However, few studies have investigated the spatial and temporal variation in emergency transport during periods of extreme heat on a national scale. Daily emergency ambulance dispatch data from 2007 to 2010 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. The temporal variability in the relationship between heat and morbidity in each prefecture was estimated using Poisson regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model and adjusted for time trends. The spatial variability in the heat-morbidity relationships between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate meta-analysis. A total of 5,289,660 emergency transports were reported during the summer months (June through September) within the study period. The overall cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th percentile vs. the minimum morbidity percentile was 1.292 (95% CI: 1.251-1.333) for all causes, 1.039 (95% CI: 0.989-1.091) for cardiovascular diseases, and 1.287 (95% CI: 1.210-1.368) for respiratory diseases. Temporal variation in the estimated effects indicated a non-linear relationship, and there were differences in the temporal variations between heat and all-cause and cause-specific morbidity. Spatial variation between prefectures was observed for all causes (Cochran Q test, p<0.001; I(2)=45.8%); however, there was no significant spatial heterogeneity for cardiovascular (Cochran Q test, p=0.054; I(2)=15.1%) and respiratory (Cochran Q test, p=0.681; I(2)=1.0%) diseases. Our nationwide study demonstrated differences in the spatial and temporal variations in the relative risk for all-cause and cause-specific emergency transport during periods of extreme heat in Japan between 2007 and 2010. Our results suggest that public health strategies aimed at controlling heat-related morbidity should be tailored according to region-specific weather conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reverse Flood Routing with the Lag-and-Route Storage Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazi, K.; Koussis, A. D.

2010-09-01

This work presents a method for reverse routing of flood waves in open channels, which is an inverse problem of the signal identification type. Inflow determination from outflow measurements is useful in hydrologic forensics and in optimal reservoir control, but has been seldom studied. Such problems are ill posed and their solution is sensitive to small perturbations present in the data, or to any related uncertainty. Therefore the major difficulty in solving this inverse problem consists in controlling the amplification of errors that inevitably befall flow measurements, from which the inflow signal is to be determined. The lag-and-route model offers a convenient framework for reverse routing, because not only is formal deconvolution not required, but also reverse routing is through a single linear reservoir. In addition, this inversion degenerates to calculating the intermediate inflow (prior to the lag step) simply as the sum of the outflow and of its time derivative multiplied by the reservoir’s time constant. The remaining time shifting (lag) of the intermediate, reversed flow presents no complications, as pure translation causes no error amplification. Note that reverse routing with the inverted Muskingum scheme (Koussis et al., submitted to the 12th Plinius Conference) fails when that scheme is specialised to the Kalinin-Miljukov model (linear reservoirs in series). The principal functioning of the reverse routing procedure was verified first with perfect field data (outflow hydrograph generated by forward routing of a known inflow hydrograph). The field data were then seeded with random error. To smooth the oscillations caused by the imperfect (measured) outflow data, we applied a multipoint Savitzky-Golay low-pass filter. The combination of reverse routing and filtering achieved an effective recovery of the inflow signal extremely efficiently. Specifically, we compared the reverse routing results of the inverted lag-and-route model and of the inverted Kalinin-Miljukov model. The latter applies the lag-and-route model’s single-reservoir inversion scheme sequentially to its cascade of linear reservoirs, the number of which is related to the stream's hydromorphology. For this purpose, we used the example of Bruen & Dooge (2007), who back-routed flow hydrographs in a 100-km long prismatic channel using a scheme for the reverse solution of the St. Venant equations of flood wave motion. The lag-and-route reverse routing model recovered the inflow hydrograph with comparable accuracy to that of the multi-reservoir, inverted Kalinin-Miljukov model, both performing as well as the box-scheme for reverse routing with the St. Venant equations. In conclusion, the success in the regaining of the inflow signal by the devised single-reservoir reverse routing procedure, with multipoint low-pass filtering, can be attributed to its simple computational structure that endows it with remarkable robustness and exceptional efficiency.

Probability density of spatially distributed soil moisture inferred from crosshole georadar traveltime measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linde, N.; Vrugt, J. A.

2009-04-01

Geophysical models are increasingly used in hydrological simulations and inversions, where they are typically treated as an artificial data source with known uncorrelated "data errors". The model appraisal problem in classical deterministic linear and non-linear inversion approaches based on linearization is often addressed by calculating model resolution and model covariance matrices. These measures offer only a limited potential to assign a more appropriate "data covariance matrix" for future hydrological applications, simply because the regularization operators used to construct a stable inverse solution bear a strong imprint on such estimates and because the non-linearity of the geophysical inverse problem is not explored. We present a parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to efficiently derive the posterior spatially distributed radar slowness and water content between boreholes given first-arrival traveltimes. This method is called DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM_ZS) with snooker updater and sampling from past states. Our inverse scheme does not impose any smoothness on the final solution, and uses uniform prior ranges of the parameters. The posterior distribution of radar slowness is converted into spatially distributed soil moisture values using a petrophysical relationship. To benchmark the performance of DREAM_ZS, we first apply our inverse method to a synthetic two-dimensional infiltration experiment using 9421 traveltimes contaminated with Gaussian errors and 80 different model parameters, corresponding to a model discretization of 0.3 m × 0.3 m. After this, the method is applied to field data acquired in the vadose zone during snowmelt. This work demonstrates that fully non-linear stochastic inversion can be applied with few limiting assumptions to a range of common two-dimensional tomographic geophysical problems. The main advantage of DREAM_ZS is that it provides a full view of the posterior distribution of spatially distributed soil moisture, which is key to appropriately treat geophysical parameter uncertainty and infer hydrologic models.

Transaction-neutral implanted data collection interface as EMR driver: a model for emerging distributed medical technologies.

PubMed

Lorence, Daniel; Sivaramakrishnan, Anusha; Richards, Michael

2010-08-01

Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and Electronic Health Record (EHR) adoption continues to lag across the US. Cost, inconsistent formats, and concerns about control of patient information are among the most common reasons for non-adoption in physician practice settings. The emergence of wearable and implanted mobile technologies, employed in distributed environments, promises a fundamentally different information infrastructure, which could serve to minimize existing adoption resistance. Proposed here is one technology model for overcoming adoption inconsistency and high organization-specific implementation costs, using seamless, patient controlled data collection. While the conceptual applications employed in this technology set are provided by way of illustration, they may also serve as a transformative model for emerging EMR/EHR requirements.

Is trade openness good for environment in South Korea? The role of non-fossil electricity consumption.

PubMed

Zhang, Shun

2018-04-01

The paper investigates the linkage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, per capita real output, share of non-fossil electricity consumption, and trade openness in South Korea from 1971 to 2013. The empirical results indicate that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is supported by autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) test. Both short- and long-run estimates indicate that increasing non-fossil electricity consumption can mitigate environmental degradation, and increasing trade aggravates carbon dioxide emissions. By Granger causality, long-run causalities are found in both equations of CO 2 emissions and trade openness, as well as exports and imports. In the short-run, evidence indicates feedback linkage between output and trade, unidirectional linkages from trade to emissions, from emissions to output, and from output to non-fossil electricity use. Therefore, South Korea should strengthen the sustainable economy, consume clean energy, and develop green trade.

Secular instabilities of Keplerian stellar discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Karamveer; Kazandjian, Mher V.; Sridhar, S.; Touma, Jihad R.

2018-05-01

We present idealized models of a razor-thin, axisymmetric, Keplerian stellar disc around a massive black hole, and study non-axisymmetric secular instabilities in the absence of either counter-rotation or loss cones. These discs are prograde mono-energetic waterbags, whose phase-space distribution functions are constant for orbits within a range of eccentricities (e) and zero outside this range. The linear normal modes of waterbags are composed of sinusoidal disturbances of the edges of distribution function in phase space. Waterbags that include circular orbits (polarcaps) have one stable linear normal mode for each azimuthal wavenumber m. The m = 1 mode always has positive pattern speed and, for polarcaps consisting of orbits with e < 0.9428, only the m = 1 mode has positive pattern speed. Waterbags excluding circular orbits (bands) have two linear normal modes for each m, which can be stable or unstable. We derive analytical expressions for the instability condition, pattern speeds, growth rates, and normal mode structure. Narrow bands are unstable to modes with a wide range in m. Numerical simulations confirm linear theory and follow the non-linear evolution of instabilities. Long-time integration suggests that instabilities of different m grow, interact non-linearly, and relax collisionlessly to a coarse-grained equilibrium with a wide range of eccentricities.

Plasma Indicator Dispersion in Arteries of the Human Leg

PubMed Central

Bassingthwaighte, James B.

2010-01-01

Indicator-dilution curves were recorded from the femoral and dorsalis pedis arteries of five normal men after injections of indocyanine green into the superior vena cava or thoracic aorta. By considering the femoral curves as inputs to a mathematically linear system and the dorsalis pedis curves as outputs, transfer functions (the distribution of transit times) for the arterial segment between these sites were obtained in terms of a four-parameter model, the lagged normal density curve, over a sixfold range of flow rates. The parameters of the spread (dispersion) of 57 transfer functions were proportional to the mean transit time. The mean difference between transit time and appearance time was 0.30 t̄; the square root of the variances was 0.18 t̄. These linear relationships suggest that flow rate has no significant influence on dispersion and that, since no transition from laminar to turbulent flow was apparent, arterial flow characteristics were not significantly changed over a wide range of flow rates. The secondary implication is that the rate of spatial longitudinal spreading of indicator with distance traveled is primarily a function of the geometry of the arterial system, not of the rate of flow, and, therefore, that the spatial distribution at any instant is a function of this rate and of the distance traveled through the system. PMID:5330717

Simulation of non-linear acoustic field and thermal pattern of phased-array high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU).

PubMed

Wang, Mingjun; Zhou, Yufeng

2016-08-01

HIFU becomes an effective and non-invasive modality of solid tumour/cancer ablation. Simulation of the non-linear acoustic wave propagation using a phased-array transducer in multiple layered media using different focusing strategies and the consequent lesion formation are essential in HIFU planning in order to enhance the efficacy and efficiency of treatment. An angular spectrum approach with marching fractional steps was applied in the wave propagation from phased-array HIFU transducer, and diffraction, attenuation, and non-linearity effects were accounted for by a second-order operator splitting scheme. The simulated distributions of the first three harmonics along and transverse to the transducer axis were compared to the hydrophone measurements. The bioheat equation was used to simulate the subsequent temperature elevation using the deposited acoustic energy, and lesion formation was determined by the thermal dose. Better agreement was found between the measured harmonics distribution and simulation using the proposed algorithm than the Khokhlov-Zabozotskaya-Kuznetsov equation. Variable focusing of the phased-array transducer (geometric focusing, transverse shifting and the generation of multiple foci) can be simulated successfully. The shifting and splitting of focus was found to result in significantly less temperature elevation at the focus and the subsequently, the smaller lesion size, but the larger grating lobe grating lobe in the pre-focal region. The proposed algorithm could simulate the non-linear wave propagation from the source with arbitrary shape and distribution of excitation through multiple tissue layers in high computation accuracy. The performance of phased-array HIFU can be optimised in the treatment planning.

Patterns of Activity in A Global Model of A Solar Active Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradshaw, S. J.; Viall, N. M.

2016-01-01

In this work we investigate the global activity patterns predicted from a model active region heated by distributions of nanoflares that have a range of frequencies. What differs is the average frequency of the distributions. The activity patterns are manifested in time lag maps of narrow-band instrument channel pairs. We combine hydrodynamic and forward modeling codes with a magnetic field extrapolation to create a model active region and apply the time lag method to synthetic observations. Our aim is not to reproduce a particular set of observations in detail, but to recover some typical properties and patterns observed in active regions. Our key findings are the following. (1) Cooling dominates the time lag signature and the time lags between the channel pairs are generally consistent with observed values. (2) Shorter coronal loops in the core cool more quickly than longer loops at the periphery. (3) All channel pairs show zero time lag when the line of sight passes through coronal loop footpoints. (4) There is strong evidence that plasma must be re-energized on a timescale comparable to the cooling timescale to reproduce the observed coronal activity, but it is likely that a relatively broad spectrum of heating frequencies are operating across active regions. (5) Due to their highly dynamic nature, we find nanoflare trains produce zero time lags along entire flux tubes in our model active region that are seen between the same channel pairs in observed active regions.

Addressing the unemployment-mortality conundrum: non-linearity is the answer.

PubMed

Bonamore, Giorgio; Carmignani, Fabrizio; Colombo, Emilio

2015-02-01

The effect of unemployment on mortality is the object of a lively literature. However, this literature is characterized by sharply conflicting results. We revisit this issue and suggest that the relationship might be non-linear. We use data for 265 territorial units (regions) within 23 European countries over the period 2000-2012 to estimate a multivariate regression of mortality. The estimating equation allows for a quadratic relationship between unemployment and mortality. We control for various other determinants of mortality at regional and national level and we include region-specific and time-specific fixed effects. The model is also extended to account for the dynamic adjustment of mortality and possible lagged effects of unemployment. We find that the relationship between mortality and unemployment is U shaped. In the benchmark regression, when the unemployment rate is low, at 3%, an increase by one percentage point decreases average mortality by 0.7%. As unemployment increases, the effect decays: when the unemployment rate is 8% (sample average) a further increase by one percentage point decreases average mortality by 0.4%. The effect changes sign, turning from negative to positive, when unemployment is around 17%. When the unemployment rate is 25%, a further increase by one percentage point raises average mortality by 0.4%. Results hold for different causes of death and across different specifications of the estimating equation. We argue that the non-linearity arises because the level of unemployment affects the psychological and behavioural response of individuals to worsening economic conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of various error functions in predicting the optimum isotherm by linear and non-linear regression analysis for the sorption of basic red 9 by activated carbon.

PubMed

Kumar, K Vasanth; Porkodi, K; Rocha, F

2008-01-15

A comparison of linear and non-linear regression method in selecting the optimum isotherm was made to the experimental equilibrium data of basic red 9 sorption by activated carbon. The r(2) was used to select the best fit linear theoretical isotherm. In the case of non-linear regression method, six error functions namely coefficient of determination (r(2)), hybrid fractional error function (HYBRID), Marquardt's percent standard deviation (MPSD), the average relative error (ARE), sum of the errors squared (ERRSQ) and sum of the absolute errors (EABS) were used to predict the parameters involved in the two and three parameter isotherms and also to predict the optimum isotherm. Non-linear regression was found to be a better way to obtain the parameters involved in the isotherms and also the optimum isotherm. For two parameter isotherm, MPSD was found to be the best error function in minimizing the error distribution between the experimental equilibrium data and predicted isotherms. In the case of three parameter isotherm, r(2) was found to be the best error function to minimize the error distribution structure between experimental equilibrium data and theoretical isotherms. The present study showed that the size of the error function alone is not a deciding factor to choose the optimum isotherm. In addition to the size of error function, the theory behind the predicted isotherm should be verified with the help of experimental data while selecting the optimum isotherm. A coefficient of non-determination, K(2) was explained and was found to be very useful in identifying the best error function while selecting the optimum isotherm.

Chemometric modeling of 5-Phenylthiophenecarboxylic acid derivatives as anti-rheumatic agents.

PubMed

Adhikari, Nilanjan; Jana, Dhritiman; Halder, Amit K; Mondal, Chanchal; Maiti, Milan K; Jha, Tarun

2012-09-01

Arthritis involves joint inflammation, synovial proliferation and damage of cartilage. Interleukin-1 undergoes acute and chronic inflammatory mechanisms of arthritis. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs can produce symptomatic relief but cannot act through mechanisms of arthritis. Diseases modifying anti-rheumatoid drugs reduce the symptoms of arthritis like decrease in pain and disability score, reduction of swollen joints, articular index and serum concentration of acute phage proteins. Recently, some literature references are obtained on molecular modeling of antirheumatic agents. We have tried chemometric modeling through 2D-QSAR studies on a dataset of fifty-one compounds out of which forty-four 5-Phenylthiophenecarboxylic acid derivatives have IL-1 inhibitory activity and forty-six 5-Phenylthiophenecarboxylic acid derivatives have %AIA suppressive activity. The work was done to find out the structural requirements of these anti-rheumatic agents. 2D QSAR models were generated by 2D and 3D descriptors by using multiple linear regression and partial least square method where IL-1 antagonism was considered as the biological activity parameter. Statistically significant models were developed on the training set developed by k-means cluster analysis. Sterimol parameters, electronic interaction at atom number 9, 2D autocorrelation descriptors, information content descriptor, average connectivity index chi-3, radial distribution function, Balaban 3D index and 3D-MoRSE descriptors were found to play crucial roles to modulate IL-1 inhibitory activity. 2D autocorrelation descriptors like Broto-Moreau autocorrelation of topological structure-lag 3 weighted by atomic van der Waals volumes, Geary autocorrelation-lag 7 associated with weighted atomic Sanderson electronegativities and 3D-MoRSE descriptors like 3D-MoRSE-signal 22 related to atomic van der Waals volumes, 3D-MoRSE-signal 28 related to atomic van der Waals volumes and 3D-MoRSE-signal 9 which was unweighted, were found to play important roles to model %AIA suppressive activity.

Heat and emergency room admissions in the Netherlands.

PubMed

van Loenhout, Joris Adriaan Frank; Delbiso, Tefera Darge; Kiriliouk, Anna; Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel; Segers, Johan; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2018-01-05

Due to a global warming-related increase in heatwaves, it is important to obtain detailed understanding of the relationship between heat and health. We assessed the relationship between heat and urgent emergency room admissions in the Netherlands. We collected daily maximum temperature and relative humidity data over the period 2002-2007. Daily urgent emergency room admissions were divided by sex, age group and disease category. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models, estimating temperature-admission associations. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for urgent hospital admissions for a range of temperatures compared to a baseline temperature of 21 °C. In addition, we compared the impact of three different temperature scenarios on admissions using the RR. There is a positive relationship between increasing temperatures above 21 °C and the RR for urgent emergency room admissions for the disease categories 'Potential heat-related diseases' and 'Respiratory diseases'. This relationship is strongest in the 85+ group. The RRs are strongest for lag 0. For admissions for 'circulatory diseases', there is only a small significant increase of RRs within the 85+ age group for moderate heat, but not for extreme heat. The RRs for a one-day event with extreme heat are comparable to the RRs for multiple-day events with moderate heat. Hospitals should adjust the capacity of their emergency departments on warm days, and the days immediately thereafter. The elderly in particular should be targeted through prevention programmes to reduce harmful effects of heat. The fact that this increase in admissions already occurs in temperatures above 21 °C is different from previous findings in warmer countries. Given the similar impact of three consecutive days of moderate heat and one day of extreme heat on admissions, criteria for activation of national heatwave plans need adjustments based on different temperature scenarios.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 1. General Concepts and Origin of Variation.

PubMed

Jablonski, David

2017-01-01

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, i.e. the origin and the sorting of variation, in a hierarchical framework. Macroevolution occurs in multiple currencies that are only loosely correlated, notably taxonomic diversity, morphological disparity, and functional variety. The origin of variation within this conceptual framework is increasingly understood in developmental terms, with the semi-hierarchical structure of gene regulatory networks (GRNs, used here in a broad sense incorporating not just the genetic circuitry per se but the factors controlling the timing and location of gene expression and repression), the non-linear relation between magnitude of genetic change and the phenotypic results, the evolutionary potential of co-opting existing GRNs, and developmental responsiveness to nongenetic signals (i.e. epigenetics and plasticity), all requiring modification of standard microevolutionary models, and rendering difficult any simple definition of evolutionary novelty. The developmental factors underlying macroevolution create anisotropic probabilities-i.e., an uneven density distribution-of evolutionary change around any given phenotypic starting point, and the potential for coordinated changes among traits that can accommodate change via epigenetic mechanisms. From this standpoint, "punctuated equilibrium" and "phyletic gradualism" simply represent two cells in a matrix of evolutionary models of phenotypic change, and the origin of trends and evolutionary novelty are not simply functions of ecological opportunity. Over long timescales, contingency becomes especially important, and can be viewed in terms of macroevolutionary lags (the temporal separation between the origin of a trait or clade and subsequent diversification); such lags can arise by several mechanisms: as geological or phylogenetic artifacts, or when diversifications require synergistic interactions among traits, or between traits and external events. The temporal and spatial patterns of the origins of evolutionary novelties are a challenge to macroevolutionary theory; individual events can be described retrospectively, but a general model relating development, genetics, and ecology is needed. An accompanying paper (Jablonski in Evol Biol 2017) reviews diversity dynamics and the sorting of variation, with some general conclusions.

Humidity May Modify the Relationship between Temperature and Cardiovascular Mortality in Zhejiang Province, China

PubMed Central

Zeng, Jie; Zhang, Xuehai; Yang, Jun; Bao, Junzhe; Dear, Keith; Liu, Qiyong; Lin, Shao; Lin, Aihua; Huang, Cunrui

2017-01-01

Background: The evidence of increased mortality attributable to extreme temperatures is widely characterized in climate-health studies. However, few of these studies have examined the role of humidity on temperature-mortality association. We investigated the joint effect between temperature and humidity on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Zhejiang Province, China. Methods: We collected data on daily meteorological and CVD mortality from 11 cities in Zhejiang Province during 2010–2013. We first applied time-series Poisson regression analysis within the framework of distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the city-specific effect of temperature and humidity on CVD mortality, after controlling for temporal trends and potential confounding variables. We then applied a multivariate meta-analytical model to pool the effect estimates in the 11 cities to generate an overall provincial estimate. The joint effects between them were calculated by the attributable fraction (AF). The analyses were further stratified by gender, age group, education level, and location of cities. Results: In total, 120,544 CVD deaths were recorded in this study. The mean values of temperature and humidity were 17.6 °C and 72.3%. The joint effect between low temperature and high humidity had the greatest impact on the CVD death burden over a lag of 0–21 days with a significant AF of 31.36% (95% eCI: 14.79–38.41%), while in a condition of low temperature and low humidity with a significant AF of 16.74% (95% eCI: 0.89, 24.44). The AFs were higher at low temperature and high humidity in different subgroups. When considering the levels of humidity, the AFs were significant at low temperature and high humidity for males, youth, those with a low level of education, and coastal area people. Conclusions: The combination of low temperature and high humidity had the greatest impact on the CVD death burden in Zhejiang Province. This evidence has important implications for developing CVD interventions. PMID:29135955

Humidity May Modify the Relationship between Temperature and Cardiovascular Mortality in Zhejiang Province, China.

PubMed

Zeng, Jie; Zhang, Xuehai; Yang, Jun; Bao, Junzhe; Xiang, Hao; Dear, Keith; Liu, Qiyong; Lin, Shao; Lawrence, Wayne R; Lin, Aihua; Huang, Cunrui

2017-11-14

Background : The evidence of increased mortality attributable to extreme temperatures is widely characterized in climate-health studies. However, few of these studies have examined the role of humidity on temperature-mortality association. We investigated the joint effect between temperature and humidity on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Zhejiang Province, China. Methods : We collected data on daily meteorological and CVD mortality from 11 cities in Zhejiang Province during 2010-2013. We first applied time-series Poisson regression analysis within the framework of distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the city-specific effect of temperature and humidity on CVD mortality, after controlling for temporal trends and potential confounding variables. We then applied a multivariate meta-analytical model to pool the effect estimates in the 11 cities to generate an overall provincial estimate. The joint effects between them were calculated by the attributable fraction (AF). The analyses were further stratified by gender, age group, education level, and location of cities. Results : In total, 120,544 CVD deaths were recorded in this study. The mean values of temperature and humidity were 17.6 °C and 72.3%. The joint effect between low temperature and high humidity had the greatest impact on the CVD death burden over a lag of 0-21 days with a significant AF of 31.36% (95% eCI: 14.79-38.41%), while in a condition of low temperature and low humidity with a significant AF of 16.74% (95% eCI: 0.89, 24.44). The AFs were higher at low temperature and high humidity in different subgroups. When considering the levels of humidity, the AFs were significant at low temperature and high humidity for males, youth, those with a low level of education, and coastal area people. Conclusions : The combination of low temperature and high humidity had the greatest impact on the CVD death burden in Zhejiang Province. This evidence has important implications for developing CVD interventions.

Dynamic linear models using the Kalman filter for early detection and early warning of malaria outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkord, C. L.; Liu, Y.; DeVos, M.; Wimberly, M. C.

2015-12-01

Malaria early detection and early warning systems are important tools for public health decision makers in regions where malaria transmission is seasonal and varies from year to year with fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Here we present a new data-driven dynamic linear model based on the Kalman filter with time-varying coefficients that are used to identify malaria outbreaks as they occur (early detection) and predict the location and timing of future outbreaks (early warning). We fit linear models of malaria incidence with trend and Fourier form seasonal components using three years of weekly malaria case data from 30 districts in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. We identified past outbreaks by comparing the modeled prediction envelopes with observed case data. Preliminary results demonstrated the potential for improved accuracy and timeliness over commonly-used methods in which thresholds are based on simpler summary statistics of historical data. Other benefits of the dynamic linear modeling approach include robustness to missing data and the ability to fit models with relatively few years of training data. To predict future outbreaks, we started with the early detection model for each district and added a regression component based on satellite-derived environmental predictor variables including precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and land surface temperature (LST) and spectral indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We included lagged environmental predictors in the regression component of the model, with lags chosen based on cross-correlation of the one-step-ahead forecast errors from the first model. Our results suggest that predictions of future malaria outbreaks can be improved by incorporating lagged environmental predictors.

Vulnerability to the impact of temperature variability on mortality in 31 major Chinese cities.

PubMed

Yang, Jun; Zhou, Maigeng; Li, Mengmeng; Liu, Xiaobo; Yin, Peng; Sun, Qinghua; Wang, Jun; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Boguang; Liu, Qiyong

2018-08-01

Few studies have analyzed the health effects of temperature variability (TV) accounting for both interday and intraday variations in ambient temperature. In this study, TV was defined as the standard deviations of the daily minimum and maximum temperature during different exposure days. Distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression model was used to examine the city-specific effect of TV on mortality in 31 Chinese municipalities and provincial capital cities. The national estimate was pooled through a meta-analysis based on the restricted maximum likelihood estimation. To assess effect modification on TV-mortality association by individual characteristics, stratified analyses were further fitted. Potential effect modification by city characteristics was performed through a meta-regression analysis. In total, 259 million permanent residents and 4,481,090 non-accidental deaths were covered in this study. The effect estimates of TV on mortality were generally increased by longer exposure days. A 1 °C increase in TV at 0-7 days' exposure was associated with a 0.60% (95% CI: 0.25-0.94%), 0.65% (0.24-1.05%), 0.82% (0.29-1.36%), 0.86% (0.42-1.31%), 0.98% (0.57-1.39%) and 0.54% (-0.11-1.20%) increase in non-accidental, cardiovascular, IHD, stroke, respiratory and COPD mortalities, respectively. Those with lower levels of educational attainment were significantly susceptible to TV. Cities with dense population, higher mean temperatures, and relative humidity and lower diurnal temperature ranges also had higher mortality risks caused by TV. This study demonstrated that TV had considerable health effects. An early warning system to alert residents about large temperature variations is recommended, which may have a significant impact on the community awareness and public health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steady-state sinusoidal behavior of elastomeric dampers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhavan, Vijay; Wereley, Norman M.; Sieg, Thierry

1999-06-01

This paper presents an experimental and analytical investigation of an elastomeric damping material and assesses its potential application to stability augmentation of hingeless and bearingless helicopter rotors. Double lap shear specimens were tested on a servo-hydraulic testing machine. Single frequency sinusoidal tests were conducted over a strain amplitude range of 0 - 30% at three frequencies (lag/rev, 1/rev and a lower harmonic of the rotor). The frequencies were chosen such that the effect of the damper in mitigating instability phenomena, like ground and air resonance, could be analyzed. The effects of frequency, amplitude, pre-load and material self-heating were studied. A three-element mechanisms-based damper model was developed that accurately captures the energy dissipation and hysteresis behavior of the damper. The model incorporates a linear stiffness, viscous damping and a non-linear slip element that are placed in parallel to each other. The parameters of the model were identified using an LMS technique. The model was validated by reconstructing measured hysteresis cycles using these parameters.

Hydrophilic excipients modulate the time lag of time-controlled disintegrating press-coated tablets.

PubMed

Lin, Shan-Yang; Li, Mei-Jane; Lin, Kung-Hsu

2004-08-16

An oral press-coated tablet was developed by means of direct compression to achieve the time-controlled disintegrating or rupturing function with a distinct predetermined lag time. This press-coated tablet containing sodium diclofenac in the inner core was formulated with an outer shell by different weight ratios of hydrophobic polymer of micronized ethylcellulose (EC) powder and hydrophilic excipients such as spray-dried lactose (SDL) or hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC). The effect of the formulation of an outer shell comprising both hydrophobic polymer and hydrophilic excipients on the time lag of drug release was investigated. The release profile of the press-coated tablet exhibited a time period without drug release (time lag) followed by a rapid and complete release phase, in which the outer shell ruptured or broke into 2 halves. The lag phase was markedly dependent on the weight ratios of EC/SDL or EC/HPMC in the outer shell. Different time lags of the press-coated tablets from 1.0 to 16.3 hours could be modulated by changing the type and amount of the excipients. A semilogarithmic plot of the time lag of the tablet against the weight ratios of EC/SDL or EC/HPMC in the outer shell demonstrated a good linear relationship, with r = 0.976 and r = 0.982, respectively. The predetermined time lag prior to the drug release from a press-coated tablet prepared by using a micronized EC as a retarding coating shell can be adequately scheduled with the addition of hydrophilic excipients according to the time or site requirements.

Effect of Environmental Factors on Low Weight in Non-Premature Births: A Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

Díaz, Julio; Arroyo, Virginia; Ortiz, Cristina; Carmona, Rocío; Linares, Cristina

2016-01-01

Exposure to pollutants during pregnancy has been related to adverse birth outcomes. LBW can give rise to lifelong impairments. Prematurity is the leading cause of LBW, yet few studies have attempted to analyse how environmental factors can influence LBW in infants who are not premature. This study therefore sought to analyse the influence of air pollution, noise levels and temperature on LBW in non-premature births in Madrid during the period 2001-2009. Ecological time-series study to assess the impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 concentrations, noise levels, and temperatures on LBW among non-premature infants across the period 2001-2009. Our analysis extended to infants having birth weights of 1,500 g to 2,500 g (VLBW) and less than 1,500 g (ELBW). Environmental variables were lagged until 37 weeks with respect to the date of birth, and cross-correlation functions were used to identify explaining lags. Results were quantified using Poisson regression models. Across the study period 298,705 births were registered in Madrid, 3,290 of which had LBW; of this latter total, 1,492 were non-premature. PM2.5 was the only pollutant to show an association with the three variables of LBW in non-premature births. This association occurred at around the third month of gestation for LBW and VLBW (LBW: lag 23 and VLBW: lag 25), and at around the eighth month of gestation for ELBW (lag 6). Leqd was linked to LBW at lag zero. The RR of PM2.5 on LBW was 1.01 (1.00 1.03). The RR of Leqd on LBW was 1.09 (0.99 1.19)(p<0.1). The results obtained indicate that PM2.5 had influence on LBW. The adoption of measures aimed at reducing the number of vehicles would serve to lower pregnant women's exposure. In the case of noise should be limited the exposure to high levels during the final weeks of pregnancy.

Anticancer drug development from traditional cytotoxic to targeted therapies: evidence of shorter drug research and development time, and shorter drug lag in Japan.

PubMed

Kawabata-Shoda, E; Masuda, S; Kimura, H

2012-10-01

Concern about the drug lag, the delay in marketing approval between one country and another, for anticancer drugs has increased in Japan. Although a number of studies have investigated the drug lag, none has investigated it in relation to the transition of anticancer therapy from traditional cytotoxic drugs to molecularly targeted agents. Our aim was to investigate current trend in oncology drug lag between the US and Japan and identify oncology drugs approved in only one of the two countries. Publicly and commercially available data sources were used to identify drugs approved in the US and Japan as of 31 December 2010 and the data used to calculate the drug lag for individual drugs. Fifty-one drugs were approved in both the US and Japan, whereas 34 and 19 drugs were approved only in the US or Japan, respectively. Of the 19 drugs approved only in Japan, 12 had not been subject to development for a cancer indication in the US, and all were approved before 1996 in Japan. Of the 34 drugs approved only in the US, 20 had not been subject to development in Japan, and none was in the top 25 by annual US anticancer drug-class sales. For drugs approved in both countries, the mean approval lag of the molecularly targeted drugs (MTDs) was significantly shorter than that of the non-molecularly targeted drugs (non-MTDs) (3·3 vs. 5·4 years). Further, mean R&D time of the MTDs was significantly shorter than that of non-MTDs (10·0 vs. 13·7 years). The price of MTDs had increased on average by 6·6% annually in the US, whereas it had decreased on average by 4·3% biyearly in Japan. The emergence of new molecularly targeted agents has contributed to reducing the approval lag, most likely due to improvements in R&D strategy. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A network model of successive partitioning-limited solute diffusion through the stratum corneum.

PubMed

Schumm, Phillip; Scoglio, Caterina M; van der Merwe, Deon

2010-02-07

As the most exposed point of contact with the external environment, the skin is an important barrier to many chemical exposures, including medications, potentially toxic chemicals and cosmetics. Traditional dermal absorption models treat the stratum corneum lipids as a homogenous medium through which solutes diffuse according to Fick's first law of diffusion. This approach does not explain non-linear absorption and irregular distribution patterns within the stratum corneum lipids as observed in experimental data. A network model, based on successive partitioning-limited solute diffusion through the stratum corneum, where the lipid structure is represented by a large, sparse, and regular network where nodes have variable characteristics, offers an alternative, efficient, and flexible approach to dermal absorption modeling that simulates non-linear absorption data patterns. Four model versions are presented: two linear models, which have unlimited node capacities, and two non-linear models, which have limited node capacities. The non-linear model outputs produce absorption to dose relationships that can be best characterized quantitatively by using power equations, similar to the equations used to describe non-linear experimental data.

Unveiling the mystery of mitochondrial DNA replication in yeasts.

PubMed

Chen, Xin Jie; Clark-Walker, George Desmond

2018-01-01

Conventional DNA replication is initiated from specific origins and requires the synthesis of RNA primers for both the leading and lagging strands. In contrast, the replication of yeast mitochondrial DNA is origin-independent. The replication of the leading strand is likely primed by recombinational structures and proceeded by a rolling circle mechanism. The coexistent linear and circular DNA conformers facilitate the recombination-based initiation. The replication of the lagging strand is poorly understood. Re-evaluation of published data suggests that the rolling circle may also provide structures for the synthesis of the lagging-strand by mechanisms such as template switching. Thus, the coupling of recombination with rolling circle replication and possibly, template switching, may have been selected as an economic replication mode to accommodate the reductive evolution of mitochondria. Such a replication mode spares the need for conventional replicative components, including those required for origin recognition/remodelling, RNA primer synthesis and lagging-strand processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. and Mitochondria Research Society. All rights reserved.

Statistical properties of the anomalous scaling exponent estimator based on time-averaged mean-square displacement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikora, Grzegorz; Teuerle, Marek; Wyłomańska, Agnieszka; Grebenkov, Denis

2017-08-01

The most common way of estimating the anomalous scaling exponent from single-particle trajectories consists of a linear fit of the dependence of the time-averaged mean-square displacement on the lag time at the log-log scale. We investigate the statistical properties of this estimator in the case of fractional Brownian motion (FBM). We determine the mean value, the variance, and the distribution of the estimator. Our theoretical results are confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. In the limit of long trajectories, the estimator is shown to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent, and with vanishing variance. These properties ensure an accurate estimation of the scaling exponent even from a single (long enough) trajectory. As a consequence, we prove that the usual way to estimate the diffusion exponent of FBM is correct from the statistical point of view. Moreover, the knowledge of the estimator distribution is the first step toward new statistical tests of FBM and toward a more reliable interpretation of the experimental histograms of scaling exponents in microbiology.

Development of a zero-order sustained-release tablet containing mesalazine and budesonide intended to treat the distal gastrointestinal tract in inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Gareb, Bahez; Eissens, Anko C; Kosterink, Jos G W; Frijlink, Hendrik W

2016-06-01

Ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) are diseases affecting the gastrointestinal tract. Treatment depends on the severity of the disease, site of inflammation, and patient's response. The aim of this study was to develop a zero-order sustained-release tablet containing both the anti-inflammatory drugs mesalazine and budesonide as a new treatment option for ileo-colonic CD and UC. Tablets were attained by wet granulation with hydroxypropyl methylcellulose and direct compression. Our newly developed tablet core was coated with different ColoPulse® coating thicknesses and the mesalazine and budesonide release profiles were investigated in a 600-min gastrointestinal simulation system (GISS) experiment, together with commercially available MMX®-mesalazine and MMX®-budesonide. Lag-time, release rate (k0), completeness of release, and zero-order correlation coefficient (R(2)0) could be manipulated by varying ColoPulse® coating thickness. Our newly developed combination preparation (C[4.92]) complied with all conducted European Pharmacopoeia tests as well as an accelerated 6-month stability test and had a lag-time of 250min (simulated ileum targeted), a linear release profile (mesalazine R(2)0=0.9002; budesonide R(2)0=0.9481), and drug release of 100% mesalazine and 77% budesonide. Like C[4.92], MMX®-mesalazine had a linear (R(2)0=0.9883) and complete release profile (96%). However, C[4.92] lag-time was longer (250 vs. 210min), assuring simulated ileum specificity. Remarkably, MMX®-budesonide lag-time was 480min and release was only 7% with a linear character (R(2)0=0.9906). The in vitro results suggest that MMX®-budesonide effectiveness may be improved if budesonide release in the aqueous phase would be increased and that C[4.92] is a potential, new treatment option for ileo-colonic CD and UC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection and description of non-linear interdependence in normal multichannel human EEG data.

PubMed

Breakspear, M; Terry, J R

2002-05-01

This study examines human scalp electroencephalographic (EEG) data for evidence of non-linear interdependence between posterior channels. The spectral and phase properties of those epochs of EEG exhibiting non-linear interdependence are studied. Scalp EEG data was collected from 40 healthy subjects. A technique for the detection of non-linear interdependence was applied to 2.048 s segments of posterior bipolar electrode data. Amplitude-adjusted phase-randomized surrogate data was used to statistically determine which EEG epochs exhibited non-linear interdependence. Statistically significant evidence of non-linear interactions were evident in 2.9% (eyes open) to 4.8% (eyes closed) of the epochs. In the eyes-open recordings, these epochs exhibited a peak in the spectral and cross-spectral density functions at about 10 Hz. Two types of EEG epochs are evident in the eyes-closed recordings; one type exhibits a peak in the spectral density and cross-spectrum at 8 Hz. The other type has increased spectral and cross-spectral power across faster frequencies. Epochs identified as exhibiting non-linear interdependence display a tendency towards phase interdependencies across and between a broad range of frequencies. Non-linear interdependence is detectable in a small number of multichannel EEG epochs, and makes a contribution to the alpha rhythm. Non-linear interdependence produces spatially distributed activity that exhibits phase synchronization between oscillations present at different frequencies. The possible physiological significance of these findings are discussed with reference to the dynamical properties of neural systems and the role of synchronous activity in the neocortex.

Particle-fluid interaction corrections for flow measurements with a laser Doppler flowmeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berman, N. S.

1972-01-01

A discussion is given of particle lags in mean flows, acoustic oscillations at single frequencies and in turbulent flows. Some simplified cases lead to exact solutions. For turbulent flows linearization of the equation of motion after assuming the fluid and particle streamlines coincide also leads to a solution. The results show that particle lags are a function of particle size and frequency of oscillation. Additional studies are necessary to evaluate the effect of turbulence when a major portion of the energy is concentrated in small eddies.

Chromosome behaviour in Rhoeo spathacea var. variegata.

PubMed

Lin, Y J

1980-01-01

Rhoeo spathacea var. variegata is unusual in that its twelve chromosomes are arranged in a ring at meiosis. The order of the chromosomes has been established, and each chromosome arm has been designated a letter in accordance with the segmental interchange theory. Chromosomes are often irregularly orientated at metaphase I. Chromosomes at anaphase I are generally distributed equally (6-6, 58.75%) although not necessarily balanced. Due to adjacent distribution, 7-5 distribution at anaphase I was frequently observed (24.17%), and due to lagging, 6-1-5 and 5-2-5 distributions were also observed (10.83% and 3.33% respectively). Three types of abnormal distribution, 8-4, 7-1-4 and 6-2-4 were observed very infrequently (2.92% total), and their possible origins are discussed. Irregularities, such as adjacent distribution and lagging, undoubtedly reduce the fertility of the plant because of the resulting unbalanced gametes.

Life Cycle of Midlatitude Deep Convective Systems in a Lagrangian Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feng, Zhe; Dong, Xiquan; Xie, Baike; McFarlane, Sally A.; Kennedy, Aaron; Lin, Bing; Minnis, Patrick

2012-01-01

Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) consist of intense convective cores (CC), large stratiform rain (SR) regions, and extensive non-precipitating anvil clouds (AC). This study focuses on the evolution of these three components and the factors that affect convective AC production. An automated satellite tracking method is used in conjunction with a recently developed multi-sensor hybrid classification to analyze the evolution of DCS structure in a Lagrangian framework over the central United States. Composite analysis from 4221 tracked DCSs during two warm seasons (May-August, 2010-2011) shows that maximum system size correlates with lifetime, and longer-lived DCSs have more extensive SR and AC. Maximum SR and AC area lag behind peak convective intensity and the lag increases linearly from approximately 1-hour for short-lived systems to more than 3-hours for long-lived ones. The increased lag, which depends on the convective environment, suggests that changes in the overall diabatic heating structure associated with the transition from CC to SR and AC could prolong the system lifetime by sustaining stratiform cloud development. Longer-lasting systems are associated with up to 60% higher mid-tropospheric relative humidity and up to 40% stronger middle to upper tropospheric wind shear. Regression analysis shows that the areal coverage of thick AC is strongly correlated with the size of CC, updraft strength, and SR area. Ambient upper tropospheric wind speed and wind shear also play an important role for convective AC production where for systems with large AC (radius greater than 120-km) they are 24% and 20% higher, respectively, than those with small AC (radius=20 km).

Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol-related crime.

PubMed

Stockwell, Tim; Zhao, Jinhui; Sherk, Adam; Callaghan, Russell C; Macdonald, Scott; Gatley, Jodi

2017-07-01

Saskatchewan's introduction in April 2010 of minimum prices graded by alcohol strength led to an average minimum price increase of 9.1% per Canadian standard drink (=13.45 g ethanol). This increase was shown to be associated with reduced consumption and switching to lower alcohol content beverages. Police also informally reported marked reductions in night-time alcohol-related crime. This study aims to assess the impacts of changes to Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol-pricing regulations between 2008 and 2012 on selected crime events often related to alcohol use. Data were obtained from Canada's Uniform Crime Reporting Survey. Auto-regressive integrated moving average time series models were used to test immediate and lagged associations between minimum price increases and rates of night-time and police identified alcohol-related crimes. Controls were included for simultaneous crime rates in the neighbouring province of Alberta, economic variables, linear trend, seasonality and autoregressive and/or moving-average effects. The introduction of increased minimum-alcohol prices was associated with an abrupt decrease in night-time alcohol-related traffic offences for men (-8.0%, P < 0.001), but not women. No significant immediate changes were observed for non-alcohol-related driving offences, disorderly conduct or violence. Significant monthly lagged effects were observed for violent offences (-19.7% at month 4 to -18.2% at month 6), which broadly corresponded to lagged effects in on-premise alcohol sales. Increased minimum alcohol prices may contribute to reductions in alcohol-related traffic-related and violent crimes perpetrated by men. Observed lagged effects for violent incidents may be due to a delay in bars passing on increased prices to their customers, perhaps because of inventory stockpiling. [Stockwell T, Zhao J, Sherk A, Callaghan RC, Macdonald S, Gatley J. Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol-related crime. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:492-501]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Probability distribution of financial returns in a model of multiplicative Brownian motion with stochastic diffusion coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Antonio

2005-03-01

It is well-known that the mathematical theory of Brownian motion was first developed in the Ph. D. thesis of Louis Bachelier for the French stock market before Einstein [1]. In Ref. [2] we studied the so-called Heston model, where the stock-price dynamics is governed by multiplicative Brownian motion with stochastic diffusion coefficient. We solved the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation exactly and found an analytic formula for the time-dependent probability distribution of stock price changes (returns). The formula interpolates between the exponential (tent-shaped) distribution for short time lags and the Gaussian (parabolic) distribution for long time lags. The theoretical formula agrees very well with the actual stock-market data ranging from the Dow-Jones index [2] to individual companies [3], such as Microsoft, Intel, etc. [] [1] Louis Bachelier, ``Th'eorie de la sp'eculation,'' Annales Scientifiques de l''Ecole Normale Sup'erieure, III-17:21-86 (1900).[] [2] A. A. Dragulescu and V. M. Yakovenko, ``Probability distribution of returns in the Heston model with stochastic volatility,'' Quantitative Finance 2, 443--453 (2002); Erratum 3, C15 (2003). [cond-mat/0203046] [] [3] A. C. Silva, R. E. Prange, and V. M. Yakovenko, ``Exponential distribution of financial returns at mesoscopic time lags: a new stylized fact,'' Physica A 344, 227--235 (2004). [cond-mat/0401225

A Large-Particle Monte Carlo Code for Simulating Non-Linear High-Energy Processes Near Compact Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stern, Boris E.; Svensson, Roland; Begelman, Mitchell C.; Sikora, Marek

1995-01-01

High-energy radiation processes in compact cosmic objects are often expected to have a strongly non-linear behavior. Such behavior is shown, for example, by electron-positron pair cascades and the time evolution of relativistic proton distributions in dense radiation fields. Three independent techniques have been developed to simulate these non-linear problems: the kinetic equation approach; the phase-space density (PSD) Monte Carlo method; and the large-particle (LP) Monte Carlo method. In this paper, we present the latest version of the LP method and compare it with the other methods. The efficiency of the method in treating geometrically complex problems is illustrated by showing results of simulations of 1D, 2D and 3D systems. The method is shown to be powerful enough to treat non-spherical geometries, including such effects as bulk motion of the background plasma, reflection of radiation from cold matter, and anisotropic distributions of radiating particles. It can therefore be applied to simulate high-energy processes in such astrophysical systems as accretion discs with coronae, relativistic jets, pulsar magnetospheres and gamma-ray bursts.

A Comprehensive Analytical Model of Rotorcraft Aerodynamics and Dynamics. Part 1. Analysis Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-06-01

sufficient. Dropping the time lag terms, the equations for Xu, Xx’, and X reduce to linear algebraic equations.Y Hence in the quasistatic case the...quasistatic variables now are not described by differential equations but rather by linear algebraic equations. The solution for x0 then is simply -365...matrices for two-bladed rotor 414 7. LINEAR SYSTEM ANALYSIS 425 7,1 State Variable Form 425 7.2 Constant Coefficient System 426 7.2. 1 Eigen-analysis 426

Cosmic velocity-gravity relation in redshift space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombi, Stéphane; Chodorowski, Michał J.; Teyssier, Romain

2007-02-01

We propose a simple way to estimate the parameter β ~= Ω0.6/b from 3D galaxy surveys, where Ω is the non-relativistic matter-density parameter of the Universe and b is the bias between the galaxy distribution and the total matter distribution. Our method consists in measuring the relation between the cosmological velocity and gravity fields, and thus requires peculiar velocity measurements. The relation is measured directly in redshift space, so there is no need to reconstruct the density field in real space. In linear theory, the radial components of the gravity and velocity fields in redshift space are expected to be tightly correlated, with a slope given, in the distant observer approximation, by We test extensively this relation using controlled numerical experiments based on a cosmological N-body simulation. To perform the measurements, we propose a new and rather simple adaptive interpolation scheme to estimate the velocity and the gravity field on a grid. One of the most striking results is that non-linear effects, including `fingers of God', affect mainly the tails of the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of the velocity and gravity field: the 1-1.5 σ region around the maximum of the PDF is dominated by the linear theory regime, both in real and redshift space. This is understood explicitly by using the spherical collapse model as a proxy of non-linear dynamics. Applications of the method to real galaxy catalogues are discussed, including a preliminary investigation on homogeneous (volume-limited) `galaxy' samples extracted from the simulation with simple prescriptions based on halo and substructure identification, to quantify the effects of the bias between the galaxy distribution and the total matter distribution, as well as the effects of shot noise.

Investigation of Sunspot Area Varying with Sunspot Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. J.; Li, F. Y.; Zhang, J.; Feng, W.

2016-11-01

The statistical relationship between sunspot area (SA) and sunspot number (SN) is investigated through analysis of their daily observation records from May 1874 to April 2015. For a total of 1607 days, representing 3 % of the total interval considered, either SA or SN had a value of zero while the other parameter did not. These occurrences most likely reflect the report of short-lived spots by a single observatory and subsequent averaging of zero values over multiple stations. The main results obtained are as follows: i) The number of spotless days around the minimum of a solar cycle is statistically negatively correlated with the maximum strength of solar activity of that cycle. ii) The probability distribution of SA generally decreases monotonically with SA, but the distribution of SN generally increases first, then it decreases as a whole. The different probability distribution of SA and SN should strengthen their non-linear relation, and the correction factor [k] in the definition of SN may be one of the factors that cause the non-linearity. iii) The non-linear relation of SA and SN indeed exists statistically, and it is clearer during the maximum epoch of a solar cycle.

Random forests in non-invasive sensorimotor rhythm brain-computer interfaces: a practical and convenient non-linear classifier.

PubMed

Steyrl, David; Scherer, Reinhold; Faller, Josef; Müller-Putz, Gernot R

2016-02-01

There is general agreement in the brain-computer interface (BCI) community that although non-linear classifiers can provide better results in some cases, linear classifiers are preferable. Particularly, as non-linear classifiers often involve a number of parameters that must be carefully chosen. However, new non-linear classifiers were developed over the last decade. One of them is the random forest (RF) classifier. Although popular in other fields of science, RFs are not common in BCI research. In this work, we address three open questions regarding RFs in sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) BCIs: parametrization, online applicability, and performance compared to regularized linear discriminant analysis (LDA). We found that the performance of RF is constant over a large range of parameter values. We demonstrate - for the first time - that RFs are applicable online in SMR-BCIs. Further, we show in an offline BCI simulation that RFs statistically significantly outperform regularized LDA by about 3%. These results confirm that RFs are practical and convenient non-linear classifiers for SMR-BCIs. Taking into account further properties of RFs, such as independence from feature distributions, maximum margin behavior, multiclass and advanced data mining capabilities, we argue that RFs should be taken into consideration for future BCIs.

Array observations and analyses of Cascadia deep tremor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCausland, W. A.; Malone, S.; Creager, K.; Crosson, R.; La Rocca, M.; Saccoretti, G.

2004-12-01

The July 8-24, 2004 Cascadia Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) event was observed using three small aperture seismic arrays located near Sooke, BC, Sequim, WA, and on Lopez Island, WA. Initial tremor burst epicenters located in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and were calculated using the relative arrivals of band-passed, rectified regional network signals. Most subsequent epicenters migrated to the northwest along Vancouver Island and a few occurred in the central to southern Puget Sound. Tremor bursts lasting on the order of a few seconds can be identified across the stations of any of the three arrays. Individual bursts from distinct back-azimuths often occur within five seconds of each other, indicating the presence of spatially distributed but near simultaneous tremor. None of this was visible at such a fine scale using Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN). Several array processing techniques, including beam-forming, zero-lag cross correlation and multiple signal classification (MUSIC), are being investigated to determine the optimal technique for exploring the temporal and spatial evolution of the tremor signals during the whole ETS. The back-azimuth and slowness of consecutive time windows for a one half-hour period of strong tremor were calculated using beam-forming with a linear stack, with an nth-root stack, and using zero-lag cross-correlation. Results for each array and each method yield consistent estimates of back azimuth and slowness. Beam-forming with a nonlinear stack produces results similar to the linear case but with larger uncertainty. Among the arrays, the back-azimuths give a reasonable estimate of the tremor epicenter that is consistent with the network determined epicentral locations.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.

PubMed

Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J; Sanders, Nathan J; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-02-01

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mixed linear-non-linear inversion of crustal deformation data: Bayesian inference of model, weighting and regularization parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Jun'ichi; Johnson, Kaj M.

2010-06-01

We present a unified theoretical framework and solution method for probabilistic, Bayesian inversions of crustal deformation data. The inversions involve multiple data sets with unknown relative weights, model parameters that are related linearly or non-linearly through theoretic models to observations, prior information on model parameters and regularization priors to stabilize underdetermined problems. To efficiently handle non-linear inversions in which some of the model parameters are linearly related to the observations, this method combines both analytical least-squares solutions and a Monte Carlo sampling technique. In this method, model parameters that are linearly and non-linearly related to observations, relative weights of multiple data sets and relative weights of prior information and regularization priors are determined in a unified Bayesian framework. In this paper, we define the mixed linear-non-linear inverse problem, outline the theoretical basis for the method, provide a step-by-step algorithm for the inversion, validate the inversion method using synthetic data and apply the method to two real data sets. We apply the method to inversions of multiple geodetic data sets with unknown relative data weights for interseismic fault slip and locking depth. We also apply the method to the problem of estimating the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on faults with unknown fault geometry, relative data weights and smoothing regularization weight.

Estimation of the effects of heavy Asian dust on respiratory function by definition type.

PubMed

Kurai, Jun; Watanabe, Masanari; Noma, Hisashi; Iwata, Kyoko; Taniguchi, Jumpei; Sano, Hiroyuki; Tohda, Yuji; Shimizu, Eiji

2017-01-01

The adverse effects of Asian dust (AD) on health have been demonstrated in earlier studies, but there is no standardized definition for heavy-AD. This study aimed to examine which definition of heavy-AD has the most adverse effect on respiratory function. One-hundred-and-thirty-seven adults with asthma, and 384 school children self-measured their morning peak expiratory flow (PEF). The four definitions of heavy-AD are: (1) the definition provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), (2) daily median AD particle level ≥ 0.07 km -1 , obtained through light detection and ranging (LIDAR) (3) hourly AD particle level ≥ 0.1 km -1 , and (4) hourly level ≥ 0.07 km -1 . Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effects of heavy-AD, by definition type, on daily PEF values. In adults with asthma, as per the JMA's definition, significantly reduced PEF were observed on heavy-AD days (lag 0), lag 0-1, and lag 0-3. In school children, after a heavy-AD event, as defined by the JMA, PEF significantly decreased on lag 0-1, lag 0-2, and lag 0-3. However, as per the other definitions, there was no significant decrease in the PEF in the adults and children. The associations between heavy-AD and respiratory function differed between these definitions.

Time-dependent Electron Acceleration in Blazar Transients: X-Ray Time Lags and Spectral Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Tiffany R.; Becker, Peter A.; Finke, Justin D.

2016-06-01

Electromagnetic radiation from blazar jets often displays strong variability, extending from radio to γ-ray frequencies. In a few cases, this variability has been characterized using Fourier time lags, such as those detected in the X-rays from Mrk 421 using BeppoSAX. The lack of a theoretical framework to interpret the data has motivated us to develop a new model for the formation of the X-ray spectrum and the time lags in blazar jets based on a transport equation including terms describing stochastic Fermi acceleration, synchrotron losses, shock acceleration, adiabatic expansion, and spatial diffusion. We derive the exact solution for the Fourier transform of the electron distribution and use it to compute the Fourier transform of the synchrotron radiation spectrum and the associated X-ray time lags. The same theoretical framework is also used to compute the peak flare X-ray spectrum, assuming that a steady-state electron distribution is achieved during the peak of the flare. The model parameters are constrained by comparing the theoretical predictions with the observational data for Mrk 421. The resulting integrated model yields, for the first time, a complete first-principles physical explanation for both the formation of the observed time lags and the shape of the peak flare X-ray spectrum. It also yields direct estimates of the strength of the shock and the stochastic magnetohydrodynamical wave acceleration components in the Mrk 421 jet.

Statistical models and time series forecasting of sulfur dioxide: a case study Tehran.

PubMed

Hassanzadeh, S; Hosseinibalam, F; Alizadeh, R

2009-08-01

This study performed a time-series analysis, frequency distribution and prediction of SO(2) levels for five stations (Pardisan, Vila, Azadi, Gholhak and Bahman) in Tehran for the period of 2000-2005. Most sites show a quite similar characteristic with highest pollution in autumn-winter time and least pollution in spring-summer. The frequency distributions show higher peaks at two residential sites. The potential for SO(2) problems is high because of high emissions and the close geographical proximity of the major industrial and urban centers. The ACF and PACF are nonzero for several lags, indicating a mixed (ARMA) model, then at Bahman station an ARMA model was used for forecasting SO(2). The partial autocorrelations become close to 0 after about 5 lags while the autocorrelations remain strong through all the lags shown. The results proved that ARMA (2,2) model can provides reliable, satisfactory predictions for time series.

The association of weather on pediatric emergency department visits in Changwon, Korea (2005-2014).

PubMed

Lee, Hae Jeong; Jin, Mi Hyeon; Lee, Jun Hwa

2016-05-01

It is widely believed that patients are less likely to visit hospitals during bad weather. We hypothesized that weather and emergency department (ED) visits are associated. Thus, we investigated the association between pediatric ED visits and weather, and sought to determine whether admissions to the ED are affected by meteorological factors. We retrospectively analyzed all 87,242 emergency visits to Samsung Changwon Hospital by pediatric patients under 19years of age from January 2005 to December 2014. ED visits were categorized by disease. We used Poisson regression and generalized linear model to examine the relationships between current weather and ED visits. Additionally a distributed lag non-linear model was used to investigate the effect of weather on ED visits. During this 10-year study period, the average temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were 14.7°C and 8.2°C, respectively. There were 1,145days of rain or snow (31.4%) during the 3,652-day study period. The volume of ED visits decreased on days of rain or snow. Additionally ED visits increased 2days after rainy or snowy days. The volume of ED visits increased 1.013 times with every 1°C increase in DTR. The volume of ED visits by patients with trauma, digestive diseases, and respiratory diseases increased when DTR was over 10°C. As rainfall increased to over 25mm, the ward admission rate (23.8%, p=0.018) of ED patients increased significantly. The volume of ED visits decreased on days of rain or snow and the ED visits were increased 2days after rainy or snowy days. The volume of ED visits increased for every 1°C increase in DTR. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; Hu, Wenbiao; Su, Hong; Turner, Lyle R; Ye, Xiaofang; Wang, Jiajia; Tong, Shilu

2014-04-01

Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003-2009. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0-4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10-14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

Exploring the association between heat and mortality in Switzerland between 1995 and 2013.

PubMed

Ragettli, Martina S; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2017-10-01

Designing effective public health strategies to prevent adverse health effect of hot weather is crucial in the context of global warming. In Switzerland, the 2003 heat have caused an estimated 7% increase in all-cause mortality. As a consequence, the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health developed an information campaign to raise public awareness on heat threats. For a better understanding on how hot weather affects daily mortality in Switzerland, we assessed the effect of heat on daily mortality in eight Swiss cities and population subgroups from 1995 to 2013 using different temperature metrics (daily mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax)), and aimed to evaluate variations of the heat effect after 2003 (1995-2002 versus 2004-2013). We applied conditional quasi-Poisson regression models with non-linear distributed lag functions to estimate temperature-mortality associations over all cities (1995-2013) and separately for two time periods (1995-2002, 2004-2013). Relative risks (RR) of daily mortality were estimated for increases in temperature from the median to the 98th percentile of the warm season temperature distribution. Over the whole time period, significant temperature-mortality relationships were found for all temperature indicators (RR (95% confidence interval): Tappmax: 1.12 (1.05; 1.18); Tmax: 1.15 (1.08-1.22); Tmean: 1.16 (1.09-1.23); Tmin 1.23 (1.15-1.32)). Mortality risks were higher at the beginning of the summer, especially for Tmin. In the more recent time period, we observed a non-significant reduction in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, with the age group > 74 years remaining the population at highest risk. High temperatures continue to be a considerable risk factor for human health in Switzerland after 2003. More effective public health measures targeting the elderly should be promoted with increased attention to the first heat events in summer and considering both high day-time and night-time temperatures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of the Asselin time filter on numerical solutions to the linearized shallow-water wave equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlesinger, R. E.; Johnson, D. R.; Uccellini, L. W.

1983-01-01

In the present investigation, a one-dimensional linearized analysis is used to determine the effect of Asselin's (1972) time filter on both the computational stability and phase error of numerical solutions for the shallow water wave equations, in cases with diffusion but without rotation. An attempt has been made to establish the approximate optimal values of the filtering parameter nu for each of the 'lagged', Dufort-Frankel, and Crank-Nicholson diffusion schemes, suppressing the computational wave mode without materially altering the physical wave mode. It is determined that in the presence of diffusion, the optimum filter length depends on whether waves are undergoing significant propagation. When moderate propagation is present, with or without diffusion, the Asselin filter has little effect on the spatial phase lag of the physical mode for the leapfrog advection scheme of the three diffusion schemes considered.

A polymer, random walk model for the size-distribution of large DNA fragments after high linear energy transfer radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponomarev, A. L.; Brenner, D.; Hlatky, L. R.; Sachs, R. K.

2000-01-01

DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) produced by densely ionizing radiation are not located randomly in the genome: recent data indicate DSB clustering along chromosomes. Stochastic DSB clustering at large scales, from > 100 Mbp down to < 0.01 Mbp, is modeled using computer simulations and analytic equations. A random-walk, coarse-grained polymer model for chromatin is combined with a simple track structure model in Monte Carlo software called DNAbreak and is applied to data on alpha-particle irradiation of V-79 cells. The chromatin model neglects molecular details but systematically incorporates an increase in average spatial separation between two DNA loci as the number of base-pairs between the loci increases. Fragment-size distributions obtained using DNAbreak match data on large fragments about as well as distributions previously obtained with a less mechanistic approach. Dose-response relations, linear at small doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, are obtained. They are found to be non-linear when the dose becomes so large that there is a significant probability of overlapping or close juxtaposition, along one chromosome, for different DSB clusters from different tracks. The non-linearity is more evident for large fragments than for small. The DNAbreak results furnish an example of the RLC (randomly located clusters) analytic formalism, which generalizes the broken-stick fragment-size distribution of the random-breakage model that is often applied to low-LET data.

Soft tissue modelling through autowaves for surgery simulation.

PubMed

Zhong, Yongmin; Shirinzadeh, Bijan; Alici, Gursel; Smith, Julian

2006-09-01

Modelling of soft tissue deformation is of great importance to virtual reality based surgery simulation. This paper presents a new methodology for simulation of soft tissue deformation by drawing an analogy between autowaves and soft tissue deformation. The potential energy stored in a soft tissue as a result of a deformation caused by an external force is propagated among mass points of the soft tissue by non-linear autowaves. The novelty of the methodology is that (i) autowave techniques are established to describe the potential energy distribution of a deformation for extrapolating internal forces, and (ii) non-linear materials are modelled with non-linear autowaves other than geometric non-linearity. Integration with a haptic device has been achieved to simulate soft tissue deformation with force feedback. The proposed methodology not only deals with large-range deformations, but also accommodates isotropic, anisotropic and inhomogeneous materials by simply changing diffusion coefficients.

Short-term regulation and alternative pathways of photosynthetic electron transport in Hibiscus rosa-sinensis leaves.

PubMed

Trubitsin, Boris V; Vershubskii, Alexey V; Priklonskii, Vladimir I; Tikhonov, Alexander N

2015-11-01

In this work, using the EPR and PAM-fluorometry methods, we have studied induction events of photosynthetic electron transport in Hibiscus rosa-sinensis leaves. The methods used are complementary, providing efficient tools for in situ monitoring of P700 redox transients and photochemical activity of photosystem II (PSII). The induction of P700(+) in dark-adapted leaves is characterized by the multiphase kinetics with a lag-phase, which duration elongates with the dark-adaptation time. Analyzing effects of the uncoupler monensin and artificial electron carrier methylviologen (MV) on photooxidation of P700 and slow induction of chlorophyll a fluorescence (SIF), we could ascribe different phases of transient kinetics of electron transport processes in dark-adapted leaves to the following regulatory mechanisms: (i) acceleration of electron transfer on the acceptor side of PSI, (ii) pH-dependent modulation of the intersystem electron flow, and (iii) re-distribution of electron fluxes between alternative (linear, cyclic, and pseudocyclic) pathways. Monensin significantly decreases a level of P700(+) and inhibits SIF. MV, which mediates electron flow from PSI to O2 with consequent formation of H2O2, promotes a rapid photooxidation of P700 without any lag-phase peculiar to untreated leaves. MV-mediated water-water cycle (H2O→PSII→PSI→MV→O2→H2O2→H2O) is accompanied by generation of ascorbate free radicals. This suggests that the ascorbate peroxidase system of defense against reactive oxygen species is active in chloroplasts of H. rosa-sinensis leaves. In DCMU-treated chloroplasts with inhibited PSII, the contribution of cyclic electron flow is insignificant as compared to linear electron flow. For analysis of induction events, we have simulated electron transport processes within the framework of our generalized mathematical model of oxygenic photosynthesis, which takes into account pH-dependent mechanisms of electron transport control and re-distribution of electron fluxes between alternative pathways. The model adequately describes the main peculiarities of P700(+) induction and dynamics of the intersystem electron transport. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of terpene enhancer lipophilicity on the percutaneous permeation of hydrocortisone formulated in HPMC gel systems.

PubMed

El-Kattan, A F; Asbill, C S; Michniak, B B

2000-04-05

The percutaneous permeation of hydrocortisone (HC) was investigated in hairless mouse skin after application of an alcoholic hydrogel using a diffusion cell technique. The formulations contained one of 12 terpenes, the selection of which was based on an increase in their lipophilicity (log P 1.06-5.36). Flux, cumulative receptor concentrations, skin content, and lag time of HC were measured over 24 h and compared with control gels (containing no terpene). Furthermore, HC skin content and the solubility of HC in the alcoholic hydrogel solvent mixture in the presence of terpene were determined, and correlated to the enhancing activity of terpenes. The in vitro permeation experiments with hairless mouse skin revealed that the terpene enhancers varied in their ability to enhance the flux of HC. Nerolidol which possessed the highest lipophilicity (log P = 5.36+/-0.38) provided the greatest enhancement for HC flux (35.3-fold over control). Fenchone (log P = 2.13+/-0.30) exhibited the lowest enhancement of HC flux (10.1-fold over control). In addition, a linear relationship was established between the log P of terpenes and the cumulative amount of HC in the receptor after 24 h (Q(24)). Nerolidol, provided the highest Q(24) (1733+/-93 microg/cm(2)), whereas verbenone produced the lowest Q(24) (653+/-105 microg/cm(2)). Thymol provided the lowest HC skin content (1151+/-293 microg/g), while cineole produced the highest HC skin content (18999+/-5666 microg/g). No correlation was established between the log P of enhancers and HC skin content. A correlation however, existed between the log P of terpenes and the lag time. As log P increased, a linear decrease in lag time was observed. Cymene yielded the shortest HC lag time, while fenchone produced the longest lag time. Also, the increase in the log P of terpenes resulted in a proportional increase in HC solubility in the formulation solvent mixture.

Ambient air pollution and birth weight in full-term infants in Atlanta, 1994-2004.

PubMed

Darrow, Lyndsey A; Klein, Mitchel; Strickland, Matthew J; Mulholland, James A; Tolbert, Paige E

2011-05-01

An emerging body of evidence suggests that ambient levels of air pollution during pregnancy are associated with fetal growth. We examined relationships between birth weight and temporal variation in ambient levels of carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in diameter (PM₁₀), ≤ 2.5 μm (PM(2.5)), 2.5 to 10 µm (PM(2.5-10)), and PM(2.5) chemical component measurements for 406,627 full-term births occurring between 1994 and 2004 in five central counties of metropolitan Atlanta. We assessed relationships between birth weight and pollutant concentrations during each infant's first month of gestation and third trimester, as well as in each month of pregnancy using distributed lag models. We also conducted capture-area analyses limited to mothers residing within 4 miles (6.4 km) of each air quality monitoring station. In the five-county analysis, ambient levels of NO₂, SO₂, PM(2.5) elemental carbon, and PM(2.5) water-soluble metals during the third trimester were significantly associated with small reductions in birth weight (-4 to -16 g per interquartile range increase in pollutant concentrations). Third-trimester estimates were generally higher in Hispanic and non-Hispanic black infants relative to non-Hispanic white infants. Distributed lag models were also suggestive of associations between air pollutant concentrations in late pregnancy and reduced birth weight. The capture-area analyses provided little support for the associations observed in the five-county analysis. Results provide some support for an effect of ambient air pollution in late pregnancy on birth weight in full-term infants.

An alternative to the breeder's and Lande's equations.

PubMed

Houchmandzadeh, Bahram

2014-01-10

The breeder's equation is a cornerstone of quantitative genetics, widely used in evolutionary modeling. Noting the mean phenotype in parental, selected parents, and the progeny by E(Z0), E(ZW), and E(Z1), this equation relates response to selection R = E(Z1) - E(Z0) to the selection differential S = E(ZW) - E(Z0) through a simple proportionality relation R = h(2)S, where the heritability coefficient h(2) is a simple function of genotype and environment factors variance. The validity of this relation relies strongly on the normal (Gaussian) distribution of the parent genotype, which is an unobservable quantity and cannot be ascertained. In contrast, we show here that if the fitness (or selection) function is Gaussian with mean μ, an alternative, exact linear equation of the form R' = j(2)S' can be derived, regardless of the parental genotype distribution. Here R' = E(Z1) - μ and S' = E(ZW) - μ stand for the mean phenotypic lag with respect to the mean of the fitness function in the offspring and selected populations. The proportionality coefficient j(2) is a simple function of selection function and environment factors variance, but does not contain the genotype variance. To demonstrate this, we derive the exact functional relation between the mean phenotype in the selected and the offspring population and deduce all cases that lead to a linear relation between them. These results generalize naturally to the concept of G matrix and the multivariate Lande's equation Δ(z) = GP(-1)S. The linearity coefficient of the alternative equation are not changed by Gaussian selection.

The role of building models in the evaluation of heat-related risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchin, Oliver; Jänicke, Britta; Meier, Fred; Scherer, Dieter; Ziegler, Felix

2016-04-01

Hazard-risk relationships in epidemiological studies are generally based on the outdoor climate, despite the fact that most of humans' lifetime is spent indoors. By coupling indoor and outdoor climates with a building model, the risk concept developed can still be based on the outdoor conditions but also includes exposure to the indoor climate. The influence of non-linear building physics and the impact of air conditioning on heat-related risks can be assessed in a plausible manner using this risk concept. For proof of concept, the proposed risk concept is compared to a traditional risk analysis. As an example, daily and city-wide mortality data of the age group 65 and older in Berlin, Germany, for the years 2001-2010 are used. Four building models with differing complexity are applied in a time-series regression analysis. This study shows that indoor hazard better explains the variability in the risk data compared to outdoor hazard, depending on the kind of building model. Simplified parameter models include the main non-linear effects and are proposed for the time-series analysis. The concept shows that the definitions of heat events, lag days, and acclimatization in a traditional hazard-risk relationship are influenced by the characteristics of the prevailing building stock.

Yeast multistress resistance and lag-phase characterisation during wine fermentation.

PubMed

Ferreira, David; Galeote, Virginie; Sanchez, Isabelle; Legras, Jean-Luc; Ortiz-Julien, Anne; Dequin, Sylvie

2017-09-01

Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been used to perform wine fermentation for several millennia due to its endurance and unmatched qualities. Nevertheless, at the moment of inoculation, wine yeasts must cope with specific stress factors that still challenge wine makers by slowing down or compromising the fermentation process. To better assess the role of genetic and environmental factors that govern multistress resistance during the wine fermentation lag phase, we used a factorial plan to characterise the individual and combined impact of relevant stress factors on eight S. cerevisiae and two non-S. cerevisiae wine yeast strains that are currently commercialised. The S. cerevisiae strains are very genetically diverse, belonging to the wine and flor groups, and frequently contain a previously described XVIVIII translocation that confers increased resistance to sulphites. We found that low temperature and osmotic stress substantially affected all strains, promoting considerably extended lag phases. SO2 addition had a partially temperature-dependent effect, whereas low phytosterol and thiamine concentrations impacted the lag phase in a strain-dependent manner. No major synergic effects of multistress were detected. The diversity of lag-phase durations and stress responses observed among wine strains offer new insights to better control this critical step of fermentation. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Superconductor-normal-superconductor with distributed Sharvin point contacts

DOEpatents

Holcomb, Matthew J.; Little, William A.

1994-01-01

A non-linear superconducting junction device comprising a layer of high transient temperature superconducting material which is superconducting at an operating temperature, a layer of metal in contact with the layer of high temperature superconducting material and which remains non-superconducting at the operating temperature, and a metal material which is superconducting at the operating temperature and which forms distributed Sharvin point contacts with the metal layer.

Spatial-temporal clustering of tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2016-12-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated individual tornadoes with specified supercell thunderstorms. Our analysis of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak directly associated linear features in the largely random spatial-temporal analysis with several supercell thunderstorms, which we then confirmed using model scenarios of synthetic tornado outbreaks. We suggest that it may be possible to develop a semi-automated modelling of tornado touchdowns to match the type of observations made on the 3 May 1999 outbreak.

Spatial-Temporal Clustering of Tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2017-04-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated individual tornadoes with specified supercell thunderstorms. Our analysis of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak directly associated linear features in the largely random spatial-temporal analysis with several supercell thunderstorms, which we then confirmed using model scenarios of synthetic tornado outbreaks. We suggest that it may be possible to develop a semi-automated modelling of tornado touchdowns to match the type of observations made on the 3 May 1999 outbreak.

A diffusion model of protected population on bilocal habitat with generalized resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasilyev, Maxim D.; Trofimtsev, Yuri I.; Vasilyeva, Natalya V.

2017-11-01

A model of population distribution in a two-dimensional area divided by an ecological barrier, i.e. the boundaries of natural reserve, is considered. Distribution of the population is defined by diffusion, directed migrations and areal resource. The exchange of specimens occurs between two parts of the habitat. The mathematical model is presented in the form of a boundary value problem for a system of non-linear parabolic equations with variable parameters of diffusion and growth function. The splitting space variables, sweep method and simple iteration methods were used for the numerical solution of a system. A set of programs was coded in Python. Numerical simulation results for the two-dimensional unsteady non-linear problem are analyzed in detail. The influence of migration flow coefficients and functions of natural birth/death ratio on the distributions of population densities is investigated. The results of the research would allow to describe the conditions of the stable and sustainable existence of populations in bilocal habitat containing the protected and non-protected zones.

Asymmetric impact of rainfall on India's food grain production: evidence from quantile autoregressive distributed lag model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Debdatta; Mitra, Subrata Kumar

2018-01-01

This study used a quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) model to capture asymmetric impact of rainfall on food production in India. It was found that the coefficient corresponding to the rainfall in the QARDL increased till the 75th quantile and started decreasing thereafter, though it remained in the positive territory. Another interesting finding is that at the 90th quantile and above the coefficients of rainfall though remained positive was not statistically significant and therefore, the benefit of high rainfall on crop production was not conclusive. However, the impact of other determinants, such as fertilizer and pesticide consumption, is quite uniform over the whole range of the distribution of food grain production.

Study of Piezoelectric Vibration Energy Harvester with non-linear conditioning circuit using an integrated model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzoor, Ali; Rafique, Sajid; Usman Iftikhar, Muhammad; Mahmood Ul Hassan, Khalid; Nasir, Ali

2017-08-01

Piezoelectric vibration energy harvester (PVEH) consists of a cantilever bimorph with piezoelectric layers pasted on its top and bottom, which can harvest power from vibrations and feed to low power wireless sensor nodes through some power conditioning circuit. In this paper, a non-linear conditioning circuit, consisting of a full-bridge rectifier followed by a buck-boost converter, is employed to investigate the issues of electrical side of the energy harvesting system. An integrated mathematical model of complete electromechanical system has been developed. Previously, researchers have studied PVEH with sophisticated piezo-beam models but employed simplistic linear circuits, such as resistor, as electrical load. In contrast, other researchers have worked on more complex non-linear circuits but with over-simplified piezo-beam models. Such models neglect different aspects of the system which result from complex interactions of its electrical and mechanical subsystems. In this work, authors have integrated the distributed parameter-based model of piezo-beam presented in literature with a real world non-linear electrical load. Then, the developed integrated model is employed to analyse the stability of complete energy harvesting system. This work provides a more realistic and useful electromechanical model having realistic non-linear electrical load unlike the simplistic linear circuit elements employed by many researchers.

Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

PubMed

Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

2015-09-01

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines using non-linear regression models.

PubMed

Huang, Heyun; Windig, Jack J; Vereijken, Addie; Calus, Mario P L

2014-11-06

Most studies on genomic prediction with reference populations that include multiple lines or breeds have used linear models. Data heterogeneity due to using multiple populations may conflict with model assumptions used in linear regression methods. In an attempt to alleviate potential discrepancies between assumptions of linear models and multi-population data, two types of alternative models were used: (1) a multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model that modelled trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits and (2) non-linear models based on kernel learning. These models were compared to conventional linear models for genomic prediction for two lines of brown layer hens (B1 and B2) and one line of white hens (W1). The three lines each had 1004 to 1023 training and 238 to 240 validation animals. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by estimating the correlation between observed phenotypes and predicted breeding values. When the training dataset included only data from the evaluated line, non-linear models yielded at best a similar accuracy as linear models. In some cases, when adding a distantly related line, the linear models showed a slight decrease in performance, while non-linear models generally showed no change in accuracy. When only information from a closely related line was used for training, linear models and non-linear radial basis function (RBF) kernel models performed similarly. The multi-trait GBLUP model took advantage of the estimated genetic correlations between the lines. Combining linear and non-linear models improved the accuracy of multi-line genomic prediction. Linear models and non-linear RBF models performed very similarly for genomic prediction, despite the expectation that non-linear models could deal better with the heterogeneous multi-population data. This heterogeneity of the data can be overcome by modelling trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits, which avoids the occasional occurrence of large negative accuracies when the evaluated line was not included in the training dataset. Furthermore, when using a multi-line training dataset, non-linear models provided information on the genotype data that was complementary to the linear models, which indicates that the underlying data distributions of the three studied lines were indeed heterogeneous.

A numerical study on dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer during hyperthermia treatment.

PubMed

Kumar, P; Kumar, Dinesh; Rai, K N

2015-01-01

The success of hyperthermia in the treatment of cancer depends on the precise prediction and control of temperature. It was absolutely a necessity for hyperthermia treatment planning to understand the temperature distribution within living biological tissues. In this paper, dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer has been studied using Gaussian distribution source term under most generalized boundary condition during hyperthermia treatment. An approximate analytical solution of the present problem has been done by Finite element wavelet Galerkin method which uses Legendre wavelet as a basis function. Multi-resolution analysis of Legendre wavelet in the present case localizes small scale variations of solution and fast switching of functional bases. The whole analysis is presented in dimensionless form. The dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer has compared with Pennes and Thermal wave model of bio-heat transfer and it has been found that large differences in the temperature at the hyperthermia position and time to achieve the hyperthermia temperature exist, when we increase the value of τT. Particular cases when surface subjected to boundary condition of 1st, 2nd and 3rd kind are discussed in detail. The use of dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer and finite element wavelet Galerkin method as a solution method helps in precise prediction of temperature. Gaussian distribution source term helps in control of temperature during hyperthermia treatment. So, it makes this study more useful for clinical applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

H∞ control for uncertain linear system over networks with Bernoulli data dropout and actuator saturation.

PubMed

Yu, Jimin; Yang, Chenchen; Tang, Xiaoming; Wang, Ping

2018-03-01

This paper investigates the H ∞ control problems for uncertain linear system over networks with random communication data dropout and actuator saturation. The random data dropout process is modeled by a Bernoulli distributed white sequence with a known conditional probability distribution and the actuator saturation is confined in a convex hull by introducing a group of auxiliary matrices. By constructing a quadratic Lyapunov function, effective conditions for the state feedback-based H ∞ controller and the observer-based H ∞ controller are proposed in the form of non-convex matrix inequalities to take the random data dropout and actuator saturation into consideration simultaneously, and the problem of non-convex feasibility is solved by applying cone complementarity linearization (CCL) procedure. Finally, two simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new design techniques. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change.

PubMed

Ash, Jeremy D; Givnish, Thomas J; Waller, Donald M

2017-03-01

Can species shift their distributions fast enough to track changes in climate? We used abundance data from the 1950s and the 2000s in Wisconsin to measure shifts in the distribution and abundance of 78 forest-understory plant species over the last half-century and compare these shifts to changes in climate. We estimated temporal shifts in the geographic distribution of each species using vectors to connect abundance-weighted centroids from the 1950s and 2000s. These shifts in distribution reflect colonization, extirpation, and changes in abundance within sites, separately quantified here. We then applied climate analog analyses to compute vectors representing the climate change that each species experienced. Species shifted mostly to the northwest (mean: 49 ± 29 km) primarily reflecting processes of colonization and changes in local abundance. Analog climates for these species shifted even further to the northwest, however, exceeding species' shifts by an average of 90 ± 40 km. Most species thus failed to match recent rates of climate change. These lags decline in species that have colonized more sites and those with broader site occupancy, larger seed mass, and higher habitat fidelity. Thus, species' traits appear to affect their responses to climate change, but relationships are weak. As climate change accelerates, these lags will likely increase, potentially threatening the persistence of species lacking the capacity to disperse to new sites or locally adapt. However, species with greater lags have not yet declined more in abundance. The extent of these threats will likely depend on how other drivers of ecological change and interactions among species affect their responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ambient air pollution, temperature and kawasaki disease in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Lin, Zhijing; Meng, Xia; Chen, Renjie; Huang, Guoying; Ma, Xiaojing; Chen, Jingjing; Huang, Min; Huang, Meirong; Gui, Yonghao; Chu, Chen; Liu, Fang; Kan, Haidong

2017-11-01

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a kind of pediatric vasculitis of unknown etiology which mainly affects the development of coronary artery aneurysms. Few studies have explored the potential environmental risk factors on KD incidence. We performed a time-series analysis to investigate the associations between air pollution and temperature and KD in Shanghai, China. We collected daily-hospitalized KD patients that were admitted in major pediatric specialty hospitals located in the urban areas of Shanghai from 2001 to 2010. The over-dispersed generalized additive model was used to estimate the effects of air pollutants on KD incidence on each day. Then, this model was combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the cumulative effects of temperature over a week. There were positive but statistically insignificant associations between three major air pollutants and KD incidence. The association between daily mean temperature and KD was generally J-shaped with higher risks on hot days. The cumulative relative risk of KD at extreme hot temperature (99th percentile, 32.4 °C) over a week was 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 3.23], compared with the referent temperature (10.0 °C). This study suggested that a short-term exposure to high temperature may significantly increase the incidence of KD, and the evidence linking air pollution and KD incidence was limited. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of asymmetries in air pollution with water resources, and energy consumption in Iran.

PubMed

Ashouri, Mohammad Javad; Rafei, Meysam

2018-04-17

Iran should pay special attention to its excessive consumption of energy and air pollution due to the limited availability of water resources. This study explores the effects of the consumption of energy and water resources on air pollution in Iran from 1971 to 2014. It utilizes the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach to establish a robust relationship between the variables which show that both long- and short-run coefficients are asymmetrical. The positive and negative aspects of the long-run coefficients of energy consumption and water resources were found to be 0.19, - 1.63, 0.18, and 2.36, respectively, while only the negative ones were significant for energy consumption. Based on the cumulative effects, it can be established that there are important and significant differences in the responses of air pollution to positive and negative changes in water productivity and energy consumption. In particular, CO 2 gas emissions are affected by negative changes in H 2 O productivity both in terms of the total and the GDP per unit of energy use in Iran. In regard to short-run results, considerable asymmetric effects occur on all the variables for CO 2 emissions. Based on the results obtained, some recommendations are presented, which policymakers can adopt in efforts to address the issues of pollution and consumption.

CatSim: a new computer assisted tomography simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Man, Bruno; Basu, Samit; Chandra, Naveen; Dunham, Bruce; Edic, Peter; Iatrou, Maria; McOlash, Scott; Sainath, Paavana; Shaughnessy, Charlie; Tower, Brendon; Williams, Eugene

2007-03-01

We present a new simulation environment for X-ray computed tomography, called CatSim. CatSim provides a research platform for GE researchers and collaborators to explore new reconstruction algorithms, CT architectures, and X-ray source or detector technologies. The main requirements for this simulator are accurate physics modeling, low computation times, and geometrical flexibility. CatSim allows simulating complex analytic phantoms, such as the FORBILD phantoms, including boxes, ellipsoids, elliptical cylinders, cones, and cut planes. CatSim incorporates polychromaticity, realistic quantum and electronic noise models, finite focal spot size and shape, finite detector cell size, detector cross-talk, detector lag or afterglow, bowtie filtration, finite detector efficiency, non-linear partial volume, scatter (variance-reduced Monte Carlo), and absorbed dose. We present an overview of CatSim along with a number of validation experiments.

Use DNA to learn from the past: how modern and ancient DNA studies may help reveal the past and predict the future distribution of species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, M. E.; Alsos, I. G.; Sjögren, P.; Coissac, E.; Gielly, L.; Yoccoz, N.; Føreid, M. K.; Taberlet, P.

2015-12-01

Knowledge of how climate change affected species distribution in the past may help us predict the effect of ongoing environmental changes. We explore how the use of modern (AFLP fingerprinting techniques) and ancient DNA (metabarcoding P6 loop of chloroplast DNA) help to reveal past distribution of vascular plant species, dispersal processes, and effect of species traits. Based on studies of modern DNA combined with species distribution models, we show the dispersal routes and barriers to dispersal throughout the circumarctic/circumboreal region, likely dispersal vectors, the cost of dispersal in term of loss of genetic diversity, and how these relates to species traits, dispersal distance, and size of colonized region. We also estimate the expected future distribution and loss of genetic diversity and show how this relates to life form and adaptations to dispersal. To gain more knowledge on time lags in past range change events, we rely on palaeorecords. Current data on past distribution are limited by the taxonomic and time resolution of macrofossil and pollen records. We show how this may be improved by studying ancient DNA of lake sediments. DNA of lake sediments recorded about half of the flora surrounding the lake. Compared to macrofossil, the taxonomic resolution is similar but the detection rate is considerable improved. By taking into account main determinants of founder effect, dispersal vectors, and dispersal lags, we may improve our ability to forecast effects of climate change, whereas more studies on ancient DNA may provide us with knowledge on distribution time lags.

Data Transformations for Inference with Linear Regression: Clarifications and Recommendations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pek, Jolynn; Wong, Octavia; Wong, C. M.

2017-01-01

Data transformations have been promoted as a popular and easy-to-implement remedy to address the assumption of normally distributed errors (in the population) in linear regression. However, the application of data transformations introduces non-ignorable complexities which should be fully appreciated before their implementation. This paper adds to…

Computer Power. Part 2: Electrical Power Problems and Their Amelioration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Bennett J.

1989-01-01

Describes electrical power problems that affect computer users, including spikes, sags, outages, noise, frequency variations, and static electricity. Ways in which these problems may be diagnosed and cured are discussed. Sidebars consider transformers; power distribution units; surge currents/linear and non-linear loads; and sizing the power…

Unveiling Galaxy Bias via the Halo Model, KiDS and GAMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornik, Andrej; Hoekstra, Henk; Kuijken, Konrad; Schneider, Peter; Amon, Alexandra; Nakajima, Reiko; Viola, Massimo; Choi, Ami; Erben, Thomas; Farrow, Daniel J.; Heymans, Catherine; Hildebrandt, Hendrik; Sifón, Cristóbal; Wang, Lingyu

2018-06-01

We measure the projected galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing signals using the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey and Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) to study galaxy bias. We use the concept of non-linear and stochastic galaxy biasing in the framework of halo occupation statistics to constrain the parameters of the halo occupation statistics and to unveil the origin of galaxy biasing. The bias function Γgm(rp), where rp is the projected comoving separation, is evaluated using the analytical halo model from which the scale dependence of Γgm(rp), and the origin of the non-linearity and stochasticity in halo occupation models can be inferred. Our observations unveil the physical reason for the non-linearity and stochasticity, further explored using hydrodynamical simulations, with the stochasticity mostly originating from the non-Poissonian behaviour of satellite galaxies in the dark matter haloes and their spatial distribution, which does not follow the spatial distribution of dark matter in the halo. The observed non-linearity is mostly due to the presence of the central galaxies, as was noted from previous theoretical work on the same topic. We also see that overall, more massive galaxies reveal a stronger scale dependence, and out to a larger radius. Our results show that a wealth of information about galaxy bias is hidden in halo occupation models. These models should therefore be used to determine the influence of galaxy bias in cosmological studies.

Evaluating the relationship between leaf chlorophyll concentration and SPAD-502 chlorophyll meter readings.

PubMed

Uddling, J; Gelang-Alfredsson, J; Piikki, K; Pleijel, H

2007-01-01

Relationships between chlorophyll concentration ([chl]) and SPAD values were determined for birch, wheat, and potato. For all three species, the relationships were non-linear with an increasing slope with increasing SPAD. The relationships for birch and wheat were strong (r (2) approximately 0.9), while the potato relationship was comparatively weak (r (2) approximately 0.5). Birch and wheat had very similar relationships when the chlorophyll concentration was expressed per unit leaf area, but diverged when it was expressed per unit fresh weight. Furthermore, wheat showed similar SPAD-[chl] relationships for two different cultivars and during two different growing seasons. The curvilinear shape of the SPAD-[chl] relationships agreed well with the simulated effects of non-uniform chlorophyll distribution across the leaf surface and multiple scattering, causing deviations from linearity in the high and low SPAD range, respectively. The effect of non-uniformly distributed chlorophyll is likely to be more important in explaining the non-linearity in the empirical relationships, since the effect of scattering was predicted to be comparatively weak. The simulations were based on the algorithm for the calculation of SPAD-502 output values. We suggest that SPAD calibration curves should generally be parameterised as non-linear equations, and we hope that the relationships between [chl] and SPAD and the simulations of the present study can facilitate the interpretation of chlorophyll meter calibrations in relation to optical properties of leaves in future studies.

Modeling of Engine Parameters for Condition-Based Maintenance of the MTU Series 2000 Diesel Engine

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

are suitable. To model the behavior of the engine, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) time series model of engine speed and exhaust gas... time series model of engine speed and exhaust gas temperature is derived. The lag length for ARDL is determined by whitening of residuals using the...15 B. REGRESSION ANALYSIS ....................................................................15 1. Time Series Analysis

TIME-DEPENDENT ELECTRON ACCELERATION IN BLAZAR TRANSIENTS: X-RAY TIME LAGS AND SPECTRAL FORMATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Tiffany R.; Becker, Peter A.; Finke, Justin D., E-mail: pbecker@gmu.edu, E-mail: tlewis13@gmu.edu, E-mail: justin.finke@nrl.navy.mil

2016-06-20

Electromagnetic radiation from blazar jets often displays strong variability, extending from radio to γ -ray frequencies. In a few cases, this variability has been characterized using Fourier time lags, such as those detected in the X-rays from Mrk 421 using Beppo SAX. The lack of a theoretical framework to interpret the data has motivated us to develop a new model for the formation of the X-ray spectrum and the time lags in blazar jets based on a transport equation including terms describing stochastic Fermi acceleration, synchrotron losses, shock acceleration, adiabatic expansion, and spatial diffusion. We derive the exact solution formore » the Fourier transform of the electron distribution and use it to compute the Fourier transform of the synchrotron radiation spectrum and the associated X-ray time lags. The same theoretical framework is also used to compute the peak flare X-ray spectrum, assuming that a steady-state electron distribution is achieved during the peak of the flare. The model parameters are constrained by comparing the theoretical predictions with the observational data for Mrk 421. The resulting integrated model yields, for the first time, a complete first-principles physical explanation for both the formation of the observed time lags and the shape of the peak flare X-ray spectrum. It also yields direct estimates of the strength of the shock and the stochastic magnetohydrodynamical wave acceleration components in the Mrk 421 jet.« less

A FOURIER-TRANSFORMED BREMSSTRAHLUNG FLASH MODEL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF X-RAY TIME LAGS IN ACCRETING BLACK HOLE SOURCES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroon, John J.; Becker, Peter A., E-mail: jkroon@gmu.edu, E-mail: pbecker@gmu.edu

Accreting black hole sources show a wide variety of rapid time variability, including the manifestation of time lags during X-ray transients, in which a delay (phase shift) is observed between the Fourier components of the hard and soft spectra. Despite a large body of observational evidence for time lags, no fundamental physical explanation for the origin of this phenomenon has been presented. We develop a new theoretical model for the production of X-ray time lags based on an exact analytical solution for the Fourier transform describing the diffusion and Comptonization of seed photons propagating through a spherical corona. The resultingmore » Green's function can be convolved with any source distribution to compute the associated Fourier transform and time lags, hence allowing us to explore a wide variety of injection scenarios. We show that thermal Comptonization is able to self-consistently explain both the X-ray time lags and the steady-state (quiescent) X-ray spectrum observed in the low-hard state of Cyg X-1. The reprocessing of bremsstrahlung seed photons produces X-ray time lags that diminish with increasing Fourier frequency, in agreement with the observations for a wide range of sources.« less

Non-equilibrium flow and sediment transport distribution over mobile river dunes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoitink, T.; Naqshband, S.; McElroy, B. J.

2017-12-01

Flow and sediment transport are key processes in the morphodynamics of river dunes. During floods in several rivers (e.g., the Elkhorn, Missouri, Niobrara, and Rio Grande), dunes are observed to grow rapidly as flow strength increases, undergoing an unstable transition regime, after which they are washed out in what is called upper stage plane bed. This morphological evolution of dunes to upper stage plane bed is the strongest bed-form adjustment during non-equilibrium flows and is associated with a significant change in hydraulic roughness and water levels. Detailed experimental investigations, however, have mostly focused on fixed dunes limited to equilibrium flow and bed conditions that are rare in natural channels. Our understanding of the underlying sedimentary processes that result into the washing out of dunes is therefore very limited. In the present study, using the Acoustic Concentration and Velocity Profiler (ACVP), we were able to quantify flow structure and sediment transport distribution over mobile non-equilibrium dunes. Under these non-equilibrium flow conditions average dune heights were decreasing while dune lengths were increasing. Preliminary results suggest that this morphological behaviour is due to a positive phase lag between sediment transport maximum and topographic maximum leading to a larger erosion on the dune stoss side compared to deposition on dune lee side.

Kinetics and mechanism of the biodegradation of PLA/clay nanocomposites during thermophilic phase of composting process.

PubMed

Stloukal, Petr; Pekařová, Silvie; Kalendova, Alena; Mattausch, Hannelore; Laske, Stephan; Holzer, Clemens; Chitu, Livia; Bodner, Sabine; Maier, Guenther; Slouf, Miroslav; Koutny, Marek

2015-08-01

The degradation mechanism and kinetics of polylactic acid (PLA) nanocomposite films, containing various commercially available native or organo-modified montmorillonites (MMT) prepared by melt blending, were studied under composting conditions in thermophilic phase of process and during abiotic hydrolysis and compared to the pure polymer. Described first order kinetic models were applied on the data from individual experiments by using non-linear regression procedures to calculate parameters characterizing aerobic composting and abiotic hydrolysis, such as carbon mineralization, hydrolysis rate constants and the length of lag phase. The study showed that the addition of nanoclay enhanced the biodegradation of PLA nanocomposites under composting conditions, when compared with pure PLA, particularly by shortening the lag phase at the beginning of the process. Whereas the lag phase of pure PLA was observed within 27days, the onset of CO2 evolution for PLA with native MMT was detected after just 20days, and from 13 to 16days for PLA with organo-modified MMT. Similarly, the hydrolysis rate constants determined tended to be higher for PLA with organo-modified MMT, particularly for the sample PLA-10A with fastest degradation, in comparison with pure PLA. The acceleration of chain scission in PLA with nanoclays was confirmed by determining the resultant rate constants for the hydrolytical chain scission. The critical molecular weight for the hydrolysis of PLA was observed to be higher than the critical molecular weight for onset of PLA mineralization, suggesting that PLA chains must be further shortened so as to be assimilated by microorganisms. In conclusion, MMT fillers do not represent an obstacle to acceptance of the investigated materials in composting facilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Swati, F. N. U.; Stein, Michael L.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, andmore » time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.« less

Social Data Analysis by Non-Linear Imbedding

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-20

Fig. 1 shows this dimenion-reduced galaxy. This example is chosen to illustrate how our “ history independent” techniques can infer major historical...DISTRIBUTION A: Distribution approved for public release. 1989 1990 1991 Middle East 2 7 6 Weapon Nonproliferation 2 6 5 Anti- Apartheid & Human Rights...the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) #3570 (Status of the International Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of the crime of Apartheid

An experimental and analytical investigation of isolated rotor flap-lag stability in forward flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, Gopal H.; Mcnulty, Michael J.

1985-01-01

For flap-lag stability of isolated rotors, experimental and analytical investigations are conducted in hover and forward flight on the adequacy of a linear quasi-steady aerodynamics theory with dynamic inflow. Forward flight effects on lag regressing mode are emphasized. Accordingly, a soft inplane hingeless rotor with three blades is tested at advance ratios as high as 0.55 and at shaft angles as high as 20 deg. The 1.62-m model rotor is untrimmed with an essentially unrestricted tilt of the tip path plane. By computerized symbolic manipulation, an analytical model is developed in substall to predict stability margins with mode indentification. It also predicts substall and stall regions to help explain the correlation between theory and data. The correlation shows both the strengths and weaknesses of the data and theory, and promotes further insights into areas in which further study is needed in substall and stall.

Finite element model predictions of static deformation from dislocation sources in a subduction zone: Sensitivities to homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid, and half-space assumptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterlark, Timothy

2003-01-01

Dislocation models can simulate static deformation caused by slip along a fault. These models usually take the form of a dislocation embedded in a homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid half-space (HIPSHS). However, the widely accepted HIPSHS assumptions poorly approximate subduction zone systems of converging oceanic and continental crust. This study uses three-dimensional finite element models (FEMs) that allow for any combination (including none) of the HIPSHS assumptions to compute synthetic Green's functions for displacement. Using the 1995 Mw = 8.0 Jalisco-Colima, Mexico, subduction zone earthquake and associated measurements from a nearby GPS array as an example, FEM-generated synthetic Green's functions are combined with standard linear inverse methods to estimate dislocation distributions along the subduction interface. Loading a forward HIPSHS model with dislocation distributions, estimated from FEMs that sequentially relax the HIPSHS assumptions, yields the sensitivity of predicted displacements to each of the HIPSHS assumptions. For the subduction zone models tested and the specific field situation considered, sensitivities to the individual Poisson-solid, isotropy, and homogeneity assumptions can be substantially greater than GPS. measurement uncertainties. Forward modeling quantifies stress coupling between the Mw = 8.0 earthquake and a nearby Mw = 6.3 earthquake that occurred 63 days later. Coulomb stress changes predicted from static HIPSHS models cannot account for the 63-day lag time between events. Alternatively, an FEM that includes a poroelastic oceanic crust, which allows for postseismic pore fluid pressure recovery, can account for the lag time. The pore fluid pressure recovery rate puts an upper limit of 10-17 m2 on the bulk permeability of the oceanic crust. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

On the modeling of the bottom particles segregation with non-linear diffusion equations: application to the marine sand ripples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiguercha, Djlalli; Bennis, Anne-claire; Ezersky, Alexander

2015-04-01

The elliptical motion in surface waves causes an oscillating motion of the sand grains leading to the formation of ripple patterns on the bottom. Investigation how the grains with different properties are distributed inside the ripples is a difficult task because of the segration of particle. The work of Fernandez et al. (2003) was extended from one-dimensional to two-dimensional case. A new numerical model, based on these non-linear diffusion equations, was developed to simulate the grain distribution inside the marine sand ripples. The one and two-dimensional models are validated on several test cases where segregation appears. Starting from an homogeneous mixture of grains, the two-dimensional simulations demonstrate different segregation patterns: a) formation of zones with high concentration of light and heavy particles, b) formation of «cat's eye» patterns, c) appearance of inverse Brazil nut effect. Comparisons of numerical results with the new set of field data and wave flume experiments show that the two-dimensional non-linear diffusion equations allow us to reproduce qualitatively experimental results on particles segregation.

Predictability in community dynamics.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-03-01

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Flap-Lag-Torsion Stability in Forward Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panda, B.; Chopra, I.

1985-01-01

An aeroelastic stability of three-degree flap-lag-torsion blade in forward flight is examined. Quasisteady aerodynamics with a dynamic inflow model is used. The nonlinear time dependent periodic blade response is calculated using an iterative procedure based on Floquet theory. The periodic perturbation equations are solved for stability using Floquet transition matrix theory as well as constant coefficient approximation in the fixed reference frame. Results are presented for both stiff-inplane and soft-inplane blade configurations. The effects of several parameters on blade stability are examined, including structural coupling, pitch-flap and pitch-lag coupling, torsion stiffness, steady inflow distribution, dynamic inflow, blade response solution and constant coefficient approximation.

Catchment Legacies and Trajectories: Understanding Time Lags in Catchment Response as a Function of Hydrologic and Biogeochemical Controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, N. B.; Van Meter, K. J.

2012-12-01

Increased nutrient loads delivered from watersheds due to agricultural intensification, industrialization, and urbanization have contributed globally to the persistence of large hypoxic zones in inland and coastal waters. Watershed management practices targeting these non-point source pollutants often lead to little or no improvement in water quality, even after extensive implementation of conservation measures or Best Management Practices (BMPs). The lag time between implementation of a conservation measure and resultant water quality benefits has recently been recognized as an important factor in the "apparent" failure of these BMPs. When conservation measures are implemented without explicit consideration of the lag time and with expectations that they will lead to immediate benefits, the resulting failure to meet such expectations can discourage vital restoration efforts. It is therefore important to quantify the lag times associated with watershed management efforts a priori and to implement restoration strategies targeted specifically at minimizing lag times and maximizing restoration benefits. The focus of this research is to develop a framework for understanding the time lags between land-use changes and stream water quality benefits. We hypothesize that such time lags arise from nutrient legacies building over decades of fertilizer application. For nitrogen (N), one can conceptualize this as either hydrologic legacy, in the form of dissolved nitrate that is delayed due to slow groundwater transport, or as biogeochemical legacy, in the form of organic N, possibly in dissolved or readily mineralizable forms. Indeed, mass-balance studies across the Mississippi and Thames river basins indicate the possibility of missing N mass in these landscapes, with inputs being consistently greater than the outputs even when accounting for all possible pathways of nitrogen transformation. Historical soil data within the upper Mississippi River Basin (MRB) indicate that agriculture depletes organic N in surface soil, but leads to N accumulations deeper in the profile. Nitrogen accumulation estimates (approximately 2 million Mt/yr) based on the historical data are startlingly close to the deficit suggested by mass-balance studies of the MRB (3 million Mt/yr). Understanding the lag times associated with such biogeochemical legacies requires quantification of this accumulation as a function of landscape attributes, climate, and management controls, as well as the rate of mineralization of accumulated N after implementation of management practices. Understanding hydrologic legacy requires a partitioning of flow along various pathways (e.g., overland flow, tile flow, or groundwater pathways), and the distribution of travel times along the pathways. Based on this framework, we developed a coupled hydrologic and biogeochemical model to quantify these legacies and predict landscape recovery times as a function of natural and anthropogenic controls.

Weak gravitational lensing effects on the determination of Omega_mega_m and Omega_mega Lambda from SNeIa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valageas, P.

2000-02-01

In this article we present an analytical calculation of the probability distribution of the magnification of distant sources due to weak gravitational lensing from non-linear scales. We use a realistic description of the non-linear density field, which has already been compared with numerical simulations of structure formation within hierarchical scenarios. Then, we can directly express the probability distribution P(mu ) of the magnification in terms of the probability distribution of the density contrast realized on non-linear scales (typical of galaxies) where the local slope of the initial linear power-spectrum is n=-2. We recover the behaviour seen by numerical simulations: P(mu ) peaks at a value slightly smaller than the mean < mu >=1 and it shows an extended large mu tail (as described in another article our predictions also show a good quantitative agreement with results from N-body simulations for a finite smoothing angle). Then, we study the effects of weak lensing on the derivation of the cosmological parameters from SNeIa. We show that the inaccuracy introduced by weak lensing is not negligible: {cal D}lta Omega_mega_m >~ 0.3 for two observations at z_s=0.5 and z_s=1. However, observations can unambiguously discriminate between Omega_mega_m =0.3 and Omega_mega_m =1. Moreover, in the case of a low-density universe one can clearly distinguish an open model from a flat cosmology (besides, the error decreases as the number of observ ed SNeIa increases). Since distant sources are more likely to be ``demagnified'' the most probable value of the observed density parameter Omega_mega_m is slightly smaller than its actual value. On the other hand, one may obtain some valuable information on the properties of the underlying non-linear density field from the measure of weak lensing distortions.

Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The mathematical developments and their computer program implementation for the Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation project are summarized. The estimation approach chosen is the extended Kalman filtering with a modified Bryson-Frazier smoother. Its use here is motivated by the objective of obtaining better estimates than those available from filtering and to eliminate the lag associated with filtering. The estimation technique uses as the dynamical process the six degree equations-of-motion resulting in twelve state vector elements. In addition to these are mass and solid propellant burn depth as the ""system'' state elements. The ""parameter'' state elements can include aerodynamic coefficient, inertia, center-of-gravity, atmospheric wind, etc. deviations from referenced values. Propulsion parameter state elements have been included not as options just discussed but as the main parameter states to be estimated. The mathematical developments were completed for all these parameters. Since the systems dynamics and measurement processes are non-linear functions of the states, the mathematical developments are taken up almost entirely by the linearization of these equations as required by the estimation algorithms.

[The effects of exposure to ozone on sperm quality in Wuhan].

PubMed

Tian, X J; Wang, X C; Ye, B; Li, C L; Zhang, Y; Ma, L

2017-03-06

Objective: To evaluate the effects of exposure to ozone (O(3)) on sperm quality during different stages of spermatogenesis. Methods: All 1 780 subjects attending to the Reproductive Medicine Center in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University were recruited from April, 4, 2013 to June, 30, 2015. The subjects were living in Wuhan more than 3 months before attending to the program, aged 20 to 40 years. Semen quality (sperm concentration and sperm count) were measured according to standardized protocols. Corresponding daily 8 hours average concentration of O(3), other polluted concentration, average temperature and relative humidity were collected in different time, including lag 0, 10, 70 and 90 d, and lag 0-9 d, lag 10-14 d, lag 70-90 d and lag 0-90 d. After controlling the age, BMI, education level and other confounders, generalized linear Model was used to investigate the association between O(3) and sperm quality during different stages of spermatogenesis. Results: Average daily concentration of O(3) during the study period was (114.20±74.88) μg/m(3) and the mean values of sperm concentration and count were (76.32±50.17) millions/ml and (164.77 ± 133.05) millions/sample, respectively. Exposure to O(3) was associated with decreasing sperm concentration and count. For every 1 μg/m(3) increase of O(3), the decrease of sperm concentration during lag 10, lag 0-9 and lag 10-14 days exposure windows were 0.040 (95% CI: 0.004-0.077) millions/ml, 0.081 (95% CI: 0.003-0.158) millions/ml and 0.059 (95% CI: 0.001-0.116) millions/ml, respectively. And the decrease of sperm count during lag 10, lag 0-9 days exposure windows were 0.105 (95% CI: 0.008-0.202) millions/sample and 0.221 (95% CI: 0.016-0.426) millions/sample. After stratification, in the ozone concentration

Imprints of dark energy on cosmic structure formation - I. Realistic quintessence models and the non-linear matter power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alimi, J.-M.; Füzfa, A.; Boucher, V.; Rasera, Y.; Courtin, J.; Corasaniti, P.-S.

2010-01-01

Quintessence has been proposed to account for dark energy (DE) in the Universe. This component causes a typical modification of the background cosmic expansion, which, in addition to its clustering properties, can leave a potentially distinctive signature on large-scale structures. Many previous studies have investigated this topic, particularly in relation to the non-linear regime of structure formation. However, no careful pre-selection of viable quintessence models with high precision cosmological data was performed. Here we show that this has led to a misinterpretation (and underestimation) of the imprint of quintessence on the distribution of large-scale structures. To this purpose, we perform a likelihood analysis of the combined Supernova Ia UNION data set and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe 5-yr data to identify realistic quintessence models. These are specified by different model parameter values, but still statistically indistinguishable from the vanilla Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM). Differences are especially manifest in the predicted amplitude and shape of the linear matter power spectrum though these remain within the uncertainties of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data. We use these models as a benchmark for studying the clustering properties of dark matter haloes by performing a series of high-resolution N-body simulations. In this first paper, we specifically focus on the non-linear matter power spectrum. We find that realistic quintessence models allow for relevant differences of the dark matter distribution with respect to the ΛCDM scenario well into the non-linear regime, with deviations of up to 40 per cent in the non-linear power spectrum. Such differences are shown to depend on the nature of DE, as well as the scale and epoch considered. At small scales (k ~ 1-5hMpc-1, depending on the redshift), the structure formation process is about 20 per cent more efficient than in ΛCDM. We show that these imprints are a specific record of the cosmic structure formation history in DE cosmologies and therefore cannot be accounted for in standard fitting functions of the non-linear matter power spectrum.

Time-dependent transport of energetic particles in magnetic turbulence: computer simulations versus analytical theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arendt, V.; Shalchi, A.

2018-06-01

We explore numerically the transport of energetic particles in a turbulent magnetic field configuration. A test-particle code is employed to compute running diffusion coefficients as well as particle distribution functions in the different directions of space. Our numerical findings are compared with models commonly used in diffusion theory such as Gaussian distribution functions and solutions of the cosmic ray Fokker-Planck equation. Furthermore, we compare the running diffusion coefficients across the mean magnetic field with solutions obtained from the time-dependent version of the unified non-linear transport theory. In most cases we find that particle distribution functions are indeed of Gaussian form as long as a two-component turbulence model is employed. For turbulence setups with reduced dimensionality, however, the Gaussian distribution can no longer be obtained. It is also shown that the unified non-linear transport theory agrees with simulated perpendicular diffusion coefficients as long as the pure two-dimensional model is excluded.

No association of smoke-free ordinances with profits from bingo and charitable games in Massachusetts.

PubMed

Glantz, S A; Wilson-Loots, R

2003-12-01

Because it is widely played, claims that smoking restrictions will adversely affect bingo games is used as an argument against these policies. We used publicly available data from Massachusetts to assess the impact of 100% smoke-free ordinances on profits from bingo and other gambling sponsored by charitable organisations between 1985 and 2001. We conducted two analyses: (1) a general linear model implementation of a time series analysis with net profits (adjusted to 2001 dollars) as the dependent variable, and community (as a fixed effect), year, lagged net profits, and the length of time the ordinance had been in force as the independent variables; (2) multiple linear regression of total state profits against time, lagged profits, and the percentage of the entire state population in communities that allow charitable gaming but prohibit smoking. The general linear model analysis of data from individual communities showed that, while adjusted profits fell over time, this effect was not related to the presence of an ordinance. The analysis in terms of the fraction of the population living in communities with ordinances yielded the same result. Policymakers can implement smoke-free policies without concern that these policies will affect charitable gaming.

Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Mohd Fahmi Abdul; Shabri, Ani

2017-05-01

Palm oil price fluctuated without any clear trend or cyclical pattern in the last few decades. The instability of food commodities price causes it to change rapidly over time. This paper attempts to develop Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in modeling and forecasting the price of palm oil. In order to use ARDL as a forecasting model, this paper modifies the data structure where we only consider lagged explanatory variables to explain the variation in palm oil price. We then compare the performance of this ARDL model with a benchmark model namely ARIMA in term of their comparative forecasting accuracy. This paper also utilize ARDL bound testing approach to co-integration in examining the short run and long run relationship between palm oil price and its determinant; production, stock, and price of soybean as the substitute of palm oil and price of crude oil. The comparative forecasting accuracy suggests that ARDL model has a better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA.

Increased coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalisations from ambient temperatures in Ontario

PubMed Central

Bai, Li; Li, Qiongsi; Wang, Jun; Lavigne, Eric; Gasparrini, Antonio; Copes, Ray; Yagouti, Abderrahmane; Burnett, Richard T; Goldberg, Mark S; Cakmak, Sabit; Chen, Hong

2018-01-01

Objective To assess the associations between ambient temperatures and hospitalisations for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Methods Our study comprised all residents living in Ontario, Canada, 1996–2013. For each of 14 health regions, we fitted a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the cold and heat effects on hospitalisations from CHD, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and ischaemic stroke, respectively. These effects were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. We computed attributable hospitalisations for cold and heat, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature (corresponding to the temperature of minimum morbidity) and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cut-offs at the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles. Results Between 1996 and 2013, we identified 1.4 million hospitalisations from CHD and 355 837 from stroke across Ontario. On cold days with temperature corresponding to the 1st percentile of temperature distribution, we found a 9% increase in daily hospitalisations for CHD (95% CI 1% to 16%), 29% increase for AMI (95% CI 15% to 45%) and 11% increase for stroke (95% CI 1% to 22%) relative to days with an optimal temperature. High temperatures (the 99th percentile) also increased CHD hospitalisations by 6% (95% CI 1% to 11%) relative to the optimal temperature. These estimates translate into 2.49% of CHD hospitalisations attributable to cold and 1.20% from heat. Additionally, 1.71% of stroke hospitalisations were attributable to cold. Importantly, moderate temperatures, rather than extreme temperatures, yielded the most of the cardiovascular burdens from temperatures. Conclusions Ambient temperatures, especially in moderate ranges, may be an important risk factor for cardiovascular-related hospitalisations. PMID:29101264

Fractal dimension and nonlinear dynamical processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarty, Robert C.; Lindley, John P.

1993-11-01

Mandelbrot, Falconer and others have demonstrated the existence of dimensionally invariant geometrical properties of non-linear dynamical processes known as fractals. Barnsley defines fractal geometry as an extension of classical geometry. Such an extension, however, is not mathematically trivial Of specific interest to those engaged in signal processing is the potential use of fractal geometry to facilitate the analysis of non-linear signal processes often referred to as non-linear time series. Fractal geometry has been used in the modeling of non- linear time series represented by radar signals in the presence of ground clutter or interference generated by spatially distributed reflections around the target or a radar system. It was recognized by Mandelbrot that the fractal geometries represented by man-made objects had different dimensions than the geometries of the familiar objects that abound in nature such as leaves, clouds, ferns, trees, etc. The invariant dimensional property of non-linear processes suggests that in the case of acoustic signals (active or passive) generated within a dispersive medium such as the ocean environment, there exists much rich structure that will aid in the detection and classification of various objects, man-made or natural, within the medium.

Load-Flow in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Existence, Uniqueness, Non-Singularity, and Linear Models

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Andrey; Wang, Cong; Dall'Anese, Emiliano; ...

2018-01-01

This paper considers unbalanced multiphase distribution systems with generic topology and different load models, and extends the Z-bus iterative load-flow algorithm based on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC load-flow equations. Explicit conditions for existence and uniqueness of load-flow solutions are presented. These conditions also guarantee convergence of the load-flow algorithm to the unique solution. The proposed methodology is applicable to generic systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. Further, a sufficient condition for themore » non-singularity of the load-flow Jacobian is proposed. Finally, linear load-flow models are derived, and their approximation accuracy is analyzed. Theoretical results are corroborated through experiments on IEEE test feeders.« less

Trading strategies for distribution company with stochastic distributed energy resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Chunyu; Wang, Qi; Wang, Jianhui

2016-09-01

This paper proposes a methodology to address the trading strategies of a proactive distribution company (PDISCO) engaged in the transmission-level (TL) markets. A one-leader multi-follower bilevel model is presented to formulate the gaming framework between the PDISCO and markets. The lower-level (LL) problems include the TL day-ahead market and scenario-based real-time markets, respectively with the objectives of maximizing social welfare and minimizing operation cost. The upper-level (UL) problem is to maximize the PDISCO’s profit across these markets. The PDISCO’s strategic offers/bids interactively influence the outcomes of each market. Since the LL problems are linear and convex, while the UL problemmore » is non-linear and non-convex, an equivalent primal–dual approach is used to reformulate this bilevel model to a solvable mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by case studies.« less

Load-Flow in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Existence, Uniqueness, Non-Singularity, and Linear Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Andrey; Wang, Cong; Dall'Anese, Emiliano

This paper considers unbalanced multiphase distribution systems with generic topology and different load models, and extends the Z-bus iterative load-flow algorithm based on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC load-flow equations. Explicit conditions for existence and uniqueness of load-flow solutions are presented. These conditions also guarantee convergence of the load-flow algorithm to the unique solution. The proposed methodology is applicable to generic systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. Further, a sufficient condition for themore » non-singularity of the load-flow Jacobian is proposed. Finally, linear load-flow models are derived, and their approximation accuracy is analyzed. Theoretical results are corroborated through experiments on IEEE test feeders.« less

Comparative Study of Wing Lift Distribution Analysis for High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) Unmaned Aerial Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silitonga, Faber Y.; Agoes Moelyadi, M.

2018-04-01

The development of High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has been emerged for both civil and military purposes. Its ability of operating in high altitude with long endurance is important in supporting maritime applications.Preliminary analysis of HALE UAV lift distribution of the wing presented to give decisive consideration for its early development. Ensuring that the generated lift is enough to compensate its own weight. Therotical approach using Pradtl’s non-linear lifting line theory will be compared with modern numerical approach using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Results of wing lift distribution calculated from both methods will be compared to study the reliability of it. HALE UAV ITB has high aspect ratio wing and will be analyze at cruise flight condition. The result indicates difference between Non-linear Lifting Line and CFD method.

Estimating cosmic velocity fields from density fields and tidal tensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitaura, Francisco-Shu; Angulo, Raul E.; Hoffman, Yehuda; Gottlöber, Stefan

2012-10-01

In this work we investigate the non-linear and non-local relation between cosmological density and peculiar velocity fields. Our goal is to provide an algorithm for the reconstruction of the non-linear velocity field from the fully non-linear density. We find that including the gravitational tidal field tensor using second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory based upon an estimate of the linear component of the non-linear density field significantly improves the estimate of the cosmic flow in comparison to linear theory not only in the low density, but also and more dramatically in the high-density regions. In particular we test two estimates of the linear component: the lognormal model and the iterative Lagrangian linearization. The present approach relies on a rigorous higher order Lagrangian perturbation theory analysis which incorporates a non-local relation. It does not require additional fitting from simulations being in this sense parameter free, it is independent of statistical-geometrical optimization and it is straightforward and efficient to compute. The method is demonstrated to yield an unbiased estimator of the velocity field on scales ≳5 h-1 Mpc with closely Gaussian distributed errors. Moreover, the statistics of the divergence of the peculiar velocity field is extremely well recovered showing a good agreement with the true one from N-body simulations. The typical errors of about 10 km s-1 (1σ confidence intervals) are reduced by more than 80 per cent with respect to linear theory in the scale range between 5 and 10 h-1 Mpc in high-density regions (δ > 2). We also find that iterative Lagrangian linearization is significantly superior in the low-density regime with respect to the lognormal model.

A new line-of-sight approach to the non-linear Cosmic Microwave Background

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fidler, Christian; Koyama, Kazuya; Pettinari, Guido W., E-mail: christian.fidler@port.ac.uk, E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk, E-mail: guido.pettinari@gmail.com

2015-04-01

We develop the transport operator formalism, a new line-of-sight integration framework to calculate the anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) at the linear and non-linear level. This formalism utilises a transformation operator that removes all inhomogeneous propagation effects acting on the photon distribution function, thus achieving a split between perturbative collisional effects at recombination and non-perturbative line-of-sight effects at later times. The former can be computed in the framework of standard cosmological perturbation theory with a second-order Boltzmann code such as SONG, while the latter can be treated within a separate perturbative scheme allowing the use of non-linear Newtonianmore » potentials. We thus provide a consistent framework to compute all physical effects contained in the Boltzmann equation and to combine the standard remapping approach with Boltzmann codes at any order in perturbation theory, without assuming that all sources are localised at recombination.« less

The Impact of Ambient Air Pollution on Daily Hospital Visits for Various Respiratory Diseases and the Relevant Medical Expenditures in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Niu, Yue; Yao, Yili; Chen, Renjie; Zhou, Xianghong; Kan, Haidong

2018-02-28

The evidence concerning the acute effects of ambient air pollution on various respiratory diseases was limited in China, and the attributable medical expenditures were largely unknown. From 2013 to 2015, we collected data on the daily visits to the emergency- and outpatient-department for five main respiratory diseases and their medical expenditures in Shanghai, China. We used the overdispersed generalized additive model together with distributed lag models to fit the associations of criteria air pollutants with hospital visits, and used the linear models to fit the associations with medical expenditures. Generally, we observed significant increments in emergency visits (8.81-17.26%) and corresponding expenditures (0.33-25.81%) for pediatric respiratory diseases, upper respiratory infection (URI), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for an interquartile range increase of air pollutant concentrations over four lag days. As a comparison, there were significant but smaller increments in outpatient visits (1.36-4.52%) and expenditures (1.38-3.18%) for pediatric respiratory diseases and upper respiratory infection (URI). No meaningful changes were observed for asthma and lower respiratory infection. Our study suggested that short-term exposure to outdoor air pollution may induce the occurrences or exacerbation of pediatric respiratory diseases, URI, and COPD, leading to considerable medical expenditures upon the patients.

Non-linear relationship of cell hit and transformation probabilities in a low dose of inhaled radon progenies.

PubMed

Balásházy, Imre; Farkas, Arpád; Madas, Balázs Gergely; Hofmann, Werner

2009-06-01

Cellular hit probabilities of alpha particles emitted by inhaled radon progenies in sensitive bronchial epithelial cell nuclei were simulated at low exposure levels to obtain useful data for the rejection or support of the linear-non-threshold (LNT) hypothesis. In this study, local distributions of deposited inhaled radon progenies in airway bifurcation models were computed at exposure conditions characteristic of homes and uranium mines. Then, maximum local deposition enhancement factors at bronchial airway bifurcations, expressed as the ratio of local to average deposition densities, were determined to characterise the inhomogeneity of deposition and to elucidate their effect on resulting hit probabilities. The results obtained suggest that in the vicinity of the carinal regions of the central airways the probability of multiple hits can be quite high, even at low average doses. Assuming a uniform distribution of activity there are practically no multiple hits and the hit probability as a function of dose exhibits a linear shape in the low dose range. The results are quite the opposite in the case of hot spots revealed by realistic deposition calculations, where practically all cells receive multiple hits and the hit probability as a function of dose is non-linear in the average dose range of 10-100 mGy.

On the Problems of Construction and Statistical Inference Associated with a Generalization of Canonical Variables.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

of them are pre- sented in this paper. As an application, important practical problems similar to the one posed by Gnanadesikan (1977), p. 77 can be... Gnanadesikan and Wilk (1969) to search for a non-linear combination, giving rise to non-linear first principal component. So, a p-dinensional vector can...distribution, Gnanadesikan and Gupta (1970) and earlier Eaton (1967) have considered the problem of ranking the r underlying populations according to the

Two types of expansion onsets in the Earth's two hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, M.; Mishin, V.; Mishin, V. M.; Kurikalova, M.; Karavaev, Y.; Lunyushkin, S.

2016-12-01

On the maps of distribution of field - aligned currents (FAC) of 15 investigated substorms we have found two main types of M-I feedback instability: 1) "summer" (type 1), and 2) "winter" (type 2). In equinox both types were observed, different in the two hemispheres. Each type of instability creates two simultaneous local expansion onsets, EOs: Type 1 - non-linear amplification of the downward FAC in one hemisphere and Type 2 - non-linear amplification of the upward FAC in the other hemisphere.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

PubMed Central

Alexander, Jake M.; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I.; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-01-01

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. PMID:29112781

AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF X-RAY TIME LAGS AND QUIESCENT SPECTRA FROM HOMOGENEOUS AND INHOMOGENEOUS BLACK HOLE ACCRETION CORONAE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroon, John J.; Becker, Peter A., E-mail: jkroon@gmu.edu, E-mail: pbecker@gmu.edu

2016-04-20

Many accreting black holes manifest time lags during outbursts, in which the hard Fourier component typically lags behind the soft component. Despite decades of observations of this phenomenon, the underlying physical explanation for the time lags has remained elusive, although there are suggestions that Compton reverberation plays an important role. However, the lack of analytical solutions has hindered the interpretation of the available data. In this paper, we investigate the generation of X-ray time lags in Compton scattering coronae using a new mathematical approach based on analysis of the Fourier-transformed transport equation. By solving this equation, we obtain the Fouriermore » transform of the radiation Green’s function, which allows us to calculate the exact dependence of the time lags on the Fourier frequency, for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous coronal clouds. We use the new formalism to explore a variety of injection scenarios, including both monochromatic and broadband (bremsstrahlung) seed photon injection. We show that our model can successfully reproduce both the observed time lags and the time-averaged (quiescent) X-ray spectra for Cyg X-1 and GX 339-04, using a single set of coronal parameters for each source. The time lags are the result of impulsive bremsstrahlung injection occurring near the outer edge of the corona, while the time-averaged spectra are the result of continual distributed injection of soft photons throughout the cloud.« less

A forward bias method for lag correction of an a-Si flat panel detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Starman, Jared; Tognina, Carlo; Partain, Larry

2012-01-15

Purpose: Digital a-Si flat panel (FP) x-ray detectors can exhibit detector lag, or residual signal, of several percent that can cause ghosting in projection images or severe shading artifacts, known as the radar artifact, in cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) reconstructions. A major contributor to detector lag is believed to be defect states, or traps, in the a-Si layer of the FP. Software methods to characterize and correct for the detector lag exist, but they may make assumptions such as system linearity and time invariance, which may not be true. The purpose of this work is to investigate a new hardwaremore » based method to reduce lag in an a-Si FP and to evaluate its effectiveness at removing shading artifacts in CBCT reconstructions. The feasibility of a novel, partially hardware based solution is also examined. Methods: The proposed hardware solution for lag reduction requires only a minor change to the FP. For pulsed irradiation, the proposed method inserts a new operation step between the readout and data collection stages. During this new stage the photodiode is operated in a forward bias mode, which fills the defect states with charge. A Varian 4030CB panel was modified to allow for operation in the forward bias mode. The contrast of residual lag ghosts was measured for lag frames 2 and 100 after irradiation ceased for standard and forward bias modes. Detector step response, lag, SNR, modulation transfer function (MTF), and detective quantum efficiency (DQE) measurements were made with standard and forward bias firmware. CBCT data of pelvic and head phantoms were also collected. Results: Overall, the 2nd and 100th detector lag frame residual signals were reduced 70%-88% using the new method. SNR, MTF, and DQE measurements show a small decrease in collected signal and a small increase in noise. The forward bias hardware successfully reduced the radar artifact in the CBCT reconstruction of the pelvic and head phantoms by 48%-81%. Conclusions: Overall, the forward bias method has been found to greatly reduce detector lag ghosts in projection data and the radar artifact in CBCT reconstructions. The method is limited to improvements of the a-Si photodiode response only. A future hybrid mode may overcome any limitations of this method.« less

Whistler Waves With Electron Temperature Anisotropy And Non-Maxwellian Distribution Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masood, W.

2017-12-01

Low frequency waves (˜ 100Hz), popularly known as Lion roars, are ubiquitously observed by satellites in terrestrial magnetosheath. By dint of both wave and electron data from the Cluster spacecraft and employing the linear kinetic theory for the electromagnetic waves, Masood et. al. (Ann. Geophysicae. 24, 1725-1735 (2006)) examined the conjecture made by Thorne and Tsurutani (Nature, 93, 384 (1981)) that whistler waves with electron temperature anisotropy are the progenitors of lion roars. It turned out that the study based upon the bi-Maxwellian distribution function did not come up with a satisfactory explanation of certain disagreements between theory and data. In this paper, we revisit the problem using the generalized (r, q) distribution to carry out the linear stability analysis. It is shown that good qualitative and quantitative agreements are found between theory and data using this distribution. Whistler waves with electron temperature anisotropy are also investigated with other non-Maxwellian distribution functions and general comparison is made in the end and differences in each case are highlighted. The possible applications in space plasmas are also pointed out.

Skewness in large-scale structure and non-Gaussian initial conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fry, J. N.; Scherrer, Robert J.

1994-01-01

We compute the skewness of the galaxy distribution arising from the nonlinear evolution of arbitrary non-Gaussian intial conditions to second order in perturbation theory including the effects of nonlinear biasing. The result contains a term identical to that for a Gaussian initial distribution plus terms which depend on the skewness and kurtosis of the initial conditions. The results are model dependent; we present calculations for several toy models. At late times, the leading contribution from the initial skewness decays away relative to the other terms and becomes increasingly unimportant, but the contribution from initial kurtosis, previously overlooked, has the same time dependence as the Gaussian terms. Observations of a linear dependence of the normalized skewness on the rms density fluctuation therefore do not necessarily rule out initially non-Gaussian models. We also show that with non-Gaussian initial conditions the first correction to linear theory for the mean square density fluctuation is larger than for Gaussian models.

An objective method to determine the probability distribution of the minimum apparent age of a sample of radio-isotopic dates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ickert, R. B.; Mundil, R.

2012-12-01

Dateable minerals (especially zircon U-Pb) that crystallized at high temperatures but have been redeposited, pose both unique opportunities and challenges for geochronology. Although they have the potential to provide useful information on the depositional age of their host rocks, their relationship to the host is not always well constrained. For example, primary volcanic deposits will often have a lag time (time between eruption and deposition) that is smaller than can be resolved using radiometric techniques, and the age of eruption and of deposition will be coincident within uncertainty. Alternatively, ordinary clastic sedimentary rocks will usually have a long and variable lag time, even for the youngest minerals. Intermediate cases, for example moderately reworked volcanogenic material, will have a short, but unknown lag time. A compounding problem with U-Pb zircon is that the residence time of crystals in their host magma chamber (time between crystallization and eruption) can be high and is variable, even within the products of a single eruption. In cases where the lag and/or residence time suspected to be large relative to the precision of the date, a common objective is to determine the minimum age of a sample of dates, in order to constrain the maximum age of the deposition of the host rock. However, both the extraction of that age as well as assignment of a meaningful uncertainty is not straightforward. A number of ad hoc techniques have been employed in the literature, which may be appropriate for particular data sets or specific problems, but may yield biased or misleading results. Ludwig (2012) has developed an objective, statistically justified method for the determination of the distribution of the minimum age, but it has not been widely adopted. Here we extend this algorithm with a bootstrap (which can show the effect - if any - of the sampling distribution itself). This method has a number of desirable characteristics: It can incorporate all data points while being resistant to outliers, it utilizes the measurement uncertainties, and it does not require the assumption that any given cluster of data represents a single geological event. In brief, the technique generates a synthetic distribution from the input data by resampling with replacement (a bootstrap). Each resample is a random selection from a Gaussian distribution defined by the mean and uncertainty of the data point. For this distribution, the minimum value is calculated. This procedure is repeated many times (>1000) and a distribution of minimum values is generated, from which a confidence interval can be constructed. We demonstrate the application of this technique using natural and synthetic datasets, show the advantages and limitations, and relate it to other methods. We emphasize that this estimate remains strictly a minimum age - as with any other estimate that does not explicitly incorporate lag or residence time, it will not reflect a depositional age if the lag/residence time is larger than the uncertainty of the estimate. We recommend that this or similar techniques be considered by geochronologists. Ludwig, K.R., 2012. Isoplot 3.75, A geochronological toolkit for Microsoft Excel; Berkeley Geochronology Center Special Publication no. 5

LAG3 Expression in Active Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infections

PubMed Central

Phillips, Bonnie L.; Mehra, Smriti; Ahsan, Muhammad H.; Selman, Moises; Khader, Shabaana A.; Kaushal, Deepak

2016-01-01

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is a highly successful pathogen because of its ability to persist in human lungs for long periods of time. MTB modulates several aspects of the host immune response. Lymphocyte-activation gene 3 (LAG3) is a protein with a high affinity for the CD4 receptor and is expressed mainly by regulatory T cells with immunomodulatory functions. To understand the function of LAG3 during MTB infection, a nonhuman primate model of tuberculosis, which recapitulates key aspects of natural human infection in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta), was used. We show that the expression of LAG3 is highly induced in the lungs and particularly in the granulomatous lesions of macaques experimentally infected with MTB. Furthermore, we show that LAG3 expression is not induced in the lungs and lung granulomas of animals exhibiting latent tuberculosis infection. However, simian immunodeficiency virus–induced reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection results in an increased expression of LAG3 in the lungs. This response is not observed in nonhuman primates infected with non-MTB bacterial pathogens, nor with simian immunodeficiency virus alone. Our data show that LAG3 was expressed primarily on CD4+ T cells, presumably by regulatory T cells but also by natural killer cells. The expression of LAG3 coincides with high bacterial burdens and changes in the host type 1 helper T-cell response. PMID:25549835

Multiple linear regression and regression with time series error models in forecasting PM10 concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Ng, Kar Yong; Awang, Norhashidah

2018-01-06

Frequent haze occurrences in Malaysia have made the management of PM 10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic less than 10 μm) pollution a critical task. This requires knowledge on factors associating with PM 10 variation and good forecast of PM 10 concentrations. Hence, this paper demonstrates the prediction of 1-day-ahead daily average PM 10 concentrations based on predictor variables including meteorological parameters and gaseous pollutants. Three different models were built. They were multiple linear regression (MLR) model with lagged predictor variables (MLR1), MLR model with lagged predictor variables and PM 10 concentrations (MLR2) and regression with time series error (RTSE) model. The findings revealed that humidity, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, carbon monoxide and ozone were the main factors explaining the PM 10 variation in Peninsular Malaysia. Comparison among the three models showed that MLR2 model was on a same level with RTSE model in terms of forecasting accuracy, while MLR1 model was the worst.

Study of the use of a nonlinear, rate limited, filter on pilot control signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, J. J.

1977-01-01

The use of a filter on the pilot's control output could improve the performance of the pilot-aircraft system. What is needed is a filter with a sharp high frequency cut-off, no resonance peak, and a minimum of lag at low frequencies. The present investigation studies the usefulness of a nonlinear, rate limited, filter in performing the needed function. The nonlinear filter is compared with a linear, first order filter, and no filter. An analytical study using pilot models and a simulation study using experienced test pilots was performed. The results showed that the nonlinear filter does promote quick, steady maneuvering. It is shown that the nonlinear filter attenuates the high frequency remnant and adds less phase lag to the low frequency signal than does the linear filter. It is also shown that the rate limit in the nonlinear filter can be set to be too restrictive, causing an unstable pilot-aircraft system response.

Low dose radiation risks for women surviving the a-bombs in Japan: generalized additive model.

PubMed

Dropkin, Greg

2016-11-24

Analyses of cancer mortality and incidence in Japanese A-bomb survivors have been used to estimate radiation risks, which are generally higher for women. Relative Risk (RR) is usually modelled as a linear function of dose. Extrapolation from data including high doses predicts small risks at low doses. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are flexible methods for modelling non-linear behaviour. GAMs are applied to cancer incidence in female low dose subcohorts, using anonymous public data for the 1958 - 1998 Life Span Study, to test for linearity, explore interactions, adjust for the skewed dose distribution, examine significance below 100 mGy, and estimate risks at 10 mGy. For all solid cancer incidence, RR estimated from 0 - 100 mGy and 0 - 20 mGy subcohorts is significantly raised. The response tapers above 150 mGy. At low doses, RR increases with age-at-exposure and decreases with time-since-exposure, the preferred covariate. Using the empirical cumulative distribution of dose improves model fit, and capacity to detect non-linear responses. RR is elevated over wide ranges of covariate values. Results are stable under simulation, or when removing exceptional data cells, or adjusting neutron RBE. Estimates of Excess RR at 10 mGy using the cumulative dose distribution are 10 - 45 times higher than extrapolations from a linear model fitted to the full cohort. Below 100 mGy, quasipoisson models find significant effects for all solid, squamous, uterus, corpus, and thyroid cancers, and for respiratory cancers when age-at-exposure > 35 yrs. Results for the thyroid are compatible with studies of children treated for tinea capitis, and Chernobyl survivors. Results for the uterus are compatible with studies of UK nuclear workers and the Techa River cohort. Non-linear models find large, significant cancer risks for Japanese women exposed to low dose radiation from the atomic bombings. The risks should be reflected in protection standards.

Non-Maxwellian and magnetic field effects in complex plasma wakes★

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Patrick; Jung, Hendrik; Kählert, Hanno; Joost, Jan-Philip; Greiner, Franko; Moldabekov, Zhandos; Carstensen, Jan; Sundar, Sita; Bonitz, Michael; Piel, Alexander

2018-05-01

In a streaming plasma, negatively charged dust particles create complex charge distributions on the downstream side of the particle, which are responsible for attractive forces between the like-charged particles. This wake phenomenon is studied by means of refined linear response theory and molecular dynamics simulations as well as in experiments. Particular attention is paid to non-Maxwellian velocity distributions that are found in the plasma sheath and to situations with strong magnetic fields, which are becoming increasingly important. Non-Maxwellian distributions and strong magnetic fields result in a substantial damping of the oscillatory wake potential. The interaction force in particle pairs is explored with the phase-resolved resonance method, which demonstrates the non-reciprocity of the interparticle forces in unmagnetized and magnetized systems.

Modeling Nonresident Seabird Foraging Distributions to Inform Ocean Zoning in Central California.

PubMed

Studwell, Anna J; Hines, Ellen; Elliott, Meredith L; Howar, Julie; Holzman, Barbara; Nur, Nadav; Jahncke, Jaime

2017-01-01

Seabird aggregations at sea have been shown to be associated with concentrations of prey. Previous research identified Central California as a highly used foraging area for seabirds, with locally breeding seabirds foraging close to their colonies on Southeast Farallon Island. Herein, we focus on nonresident (i.e. non-locally breeding) seabird species off of Central California. We hypothesized that high-use foraging areas for nonresident seabirds would be influenced by oceanographic and bathymetric factors and that spatial and temporal distributions would be similar within planktivorous and generalist foraging guilds but would differ between them. With data collected by the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies (ACCESS) partnership during cruises between April and October from 2004-2013, we developed generalized linear models to identify high-use foraging areas for each of six nonresident seabird species. The four generalist species are Phoebastria nigripes (black-footed albatross), Ardenna griseus (sooty shearwater), Ardenna creatopus (pink-footed shearwater), and Fulmarus glacialis (northern fulmar). The two planktivorous species are Phalaropus lobatus (red-necked phalarope) and Phalaropus fulicarius (red phalarope). Sea surface temperature was significant for generalist species and sea surface salinity was important for planktivorous species. The distance to the 200-m isobath was significant in five of six models, Pacific Decadal Oscillation with a 3-month lag in four models, and sea surface fluorescence, the distance to Cordell Bank, and depth in three models. We did not find statistically significant differences between distributions of individual seabird species within a foraging guild or between guilds, with the exception of the sooty shearwater. Model results for a multi-use seabird foraging area highlighted the continental shelf break, particularly within the vicinity of Cordell Bank, as the highest use areas as did Marxan prioritization. Our research methods can be implemented elsewhere to identify critical habitat that needs protection as human development pressures continue to expand to the ocean.

An Alternative to the Breeder’s and Lande’s Equations

PubMed Central

Houchmandzadeh, Bahram

2013-01-01

The breeder’s equation is a cornerstone of quantitative genetics, widely used in evolutionary modeling. Noting the mean phenotype in parental, selected parents, and the progeny by E(Z0), E(ZW), and E(Z1), this equation relates response to selection R = E(Z1) − E(Z0) to the selection differential S = E(ZW) − E(Z0) through a simple proportionality relation R = h2S, where the heritability coefficient h2 is a simple function of genotype and environment factors variance. The validity of this relation relies strongly on the normal (Gaussian) distribution of the parent genotype, which is an unobservable quantity and cannot be ascertained. In contrast, we show here that if the fitness (or selection) function is Gaussian with mean μ, an alternative, exact linear equation of the form R′ = j2S′ can be derived, regardless of the parental genotype distribution. Here R′ = E(Z1) − μ and S′ = E(ZW) − μ stand for the mean phenotypic lag with respect to the mean of the fitness function in the offspring and selected populations. The proportionality coefficient j2 is a simple function of selection function and environment factors variance, but does not contain the genotype variance. To demonstrate this, we derive the exact functional relation between the mean phenotype in the selected and the offspring population and deduce all cases that lead to a linear relation between them. These results generalize naturally to the concept of G matrix and the multivariate Lande’s equation Δz¯=GP−1S. The linearity coefficient of the alternative equation are not changed by Gaussian selection. PMID:24212080

SDSS IV MaNGA—Rotation Velocity Lags in the Extraplanar Ionized Gas from MaNGA Observations of Edge-on Galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bizyaev, D.; Pan, K.; Brinkmann, J.

2017-04-20

We present a study of the kinematics of the extraplanar ionized gas around several dozen galaxies observed by the Mapping of Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We considered a sample of 67 edge-on galaxies out of more than 1400 extragalactic targets observed by MaNGA, in which we found 25 galaxies (or 37%) with regular lagging of the rotation curve at large distances from the galactic midplane. We model the observed H α emission velocity fields in the galaxies, taking projection effects and a simple model for the dust extinction into account. We show that the verticalmore » lag of the rotation curve is necessary in the modeling, and estimate the lag amplitude in the galaxies. We find no correlation between the lag and the star formation rate in the galaxies. At the same time, we report a correlation between the lag and the galactic stellar mass, central stellar velocity dispersion, and axial ratio of the light distribution. These correlations suggest a possible higher ratio of infalling-to-local gas in early-type disk galaxies or a connection between lags and the possible presence of hot gaseous halos, which may be more prevalent in more massive galaxies. These results again demonstrate that observations of extraplanar gas can serve as a potential probe for accretion of gas.« less

SDSS IV MaNGA—Rotation Velocity Lags in the Extraplanar Ionized Gas from MaNGA Observations of Edge-on Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizyaev, D.; Walterbos, R. A. M.; Yoachim, P.; Riffel, R. A.; Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; Pan, K.; Diamond-Stanic, A. M.; Jones, A.; Thomas, D.; Cleary, J.; Brinkmann, J.

2017-04-01

We present a study of the kinematics of the extraplanar ionized gas around several dozen galaxies observed by the Mapping of Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We considered a sample of 67 edge-on galaxies out of more than 1400 extragalactic targets observed by MaNGA, in which we found 25 galaxies (or 37%) with regular lagging of the rotation curve at large distances from the galactic midplane. We model the observed Hα emission velocity fields in the galaxies, taking projection effects and a simple model for the dust extinction into account. We show that the vertical lag of the rotation curve is necessary in the modeling, and estimate the lag amplitude in the galaxies. We find no correlation between the lag and the star formation rate in the galaxies. At the same time, we report a correlation between the lag and the galactic stellar mass, central stellar velocity dispersion, and axial ratio of the light distribution. These correlations suggest a possible higher ratio of infalling-to-local gas in early-type disk galaxies or a connection between lags and the possible presence of hot gaseous halos, which may be more prevalent in more massive galaxies. These results again demonstrate that observations of extraplanar gas can serve as a potential probe for accretion of gas.

Predicting outgrowth and inactivation of Clostridium perfringens in meat products during low temperature long time heat treatment.

PubMed

Duan, Zhi; Hansen, Terese Holst; Hansen, Tina Beck; Dalgaard, Paw; Knøchel, Susanne

2016-08-02

With low temperature long time (LTLT) cooking it can take hours for meat to reach a final core temperature above 53°C and germination followed by growth of Clostridium perfringens is a concern. Available and new growth data in meats including 154 lag times (tlag), 224 maximum specific growth rates (μmax) and 25 maximum population densities (Nmax) were used to developed a model to predict growth of C. perfringens during the coming-up time of LTLT cooking. New data were generate in 26 challenge tests with chicken (pH6.8) and pork (pH5.6) at two different slowly increasing temperature (SIT) profiles (10°C to 53°C) followed by 53°C in up to 30h in total. Three inoculum types were studied including vegetative cells, non-heated spores and heat activated (75°C, 20min) spores of C. perfringens strain 790-94. Concentrations of vegetative cells in chicken increased 2 to 3logCFU/g during the SIT profiles. Similar results were found for non-heated and heated spores in chicken, whereas in pork C. perfringens 790-94 increased less than 1logCFU/g. At 53°C C. perfringens 790-94 was log-linearly inactivated. Observed and predicted concentrations of C. perfringens, at the time when 53°C (log(N53)) was reached, were used to evaluate the new growth model and three available predictive models previously published for C. perfringens growth during cooling rather than during SIT profiles. Model performance was evaluated by using mean deviation (MD), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the acceptable simulation zone (ASZ) approach with a zone of ±0.5logCFU/g. The new model showed best performance with MD=0.27logCFU/g, MAD=0.66logCFU/g and ASZ=67%. The two growth models that performed best, were used together with a log-linear inactivation model and D53-values from the present study to simulate the behaviour of C. perfringens under the fast and slow SIT profiles investigated in the present study. Observed and predicted concentrations were compared using a new fail-safe acceptable zone (FSAZ) method. FSAZ was defined as the predicted concentration of C. perfringens plus 0.5logCFU/g. If at least 85% of the observed log-counts were below the FSAZ, the model was considered fail-safe. The two models showed similar performance but none of them performed satisfactorily for all conditions. It is recommended to use the models without a lag phase until more precise lag time models become available. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatic factors driving vegetation declines in the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wenqian; Zhao, Xiang; Zhou, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Tang, Bijian; Wei, Hong

2017-01-01

Along with global climate change, the occurrence of extreme droughts in recent years has had a serious impact on the Amazon region. Current studies on the driving factors of the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts has focused on the influence of precipitation, whereas the impacts of temperature and radiation have received less attention. This study aims to explore the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation decline during the extreme droughts using vegetation index, precipitation, temperature and radiation datasets. First, time-lag effects of Amazonian vegetation responses to precipitation, radiation and temperature were analyzed. Then, a multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the contributions of climatic factors to vegetation greenness, from which the dominant climate-driving factors were determined. Finally, the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation greenness decline during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were explored. The results showed that (i) in the Amazon vegetation greenness responded to precipitation, radiation and temperature, with apparent time lags for most averaging interval periods associated with vegetation index responses of 0–4, 0–9 and 0–6 months, respectively; (ii) on average, the three climatic factors without time lags explained 27.28±21.73% (mean±1 SD) of vegetation index variation in the Amazon basin, and this value increased by 12.22% and reached 39.50±27.85% when time lags were considered; (iii) vegetation greenness in this region in non-drought years was primarily affected by precipitation and shortwave radiation, and these two factors altogether accounted for 93.47% of the total explanation; and (iv) in the common epicenter of the two droughts, pixels with a significant variation in precipitation, radiation and temperature accounted for 36.68%, 40.07% and 10.40%, respectively, of all pixels showing a significant decrease in vegetation index in 2005, and 15.69%, 2.01% and 45.25% in 2010, respectively. Overall, vegetation greenness declines during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were adversely influenced by precipitation, radiation and temperature; this study provides evidence of the influence of multiple climatic factors on vegetation during the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts. PMID:28426691

Climatic factors driving vegetation declines in the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenqian; Zhao, Xiang; Zhou, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Tang, Bijian; Wei, Hong

2017-01-01

Along with global climate change, the occurrence of extreme droughts in recent years has had a serious impact on the Amazon region. Current studies on the driving factors of the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts has focused on the influence of precipitation, whereas the impacts of temperature and radiation have received less attention. This study aims to explore the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation decline during the extreme droughts using vegetation index, precipitation, temperature and radiation datasets. First, time-lag effects of Amazonian vegetation responses to precipitation, radiation and temperature were analyzed. Then, a multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the contributions of climatic factors to vegetation greenness, from which the dominant climate-driving factors were determined. Finally, the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation greenness decline during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were explored. The results showed that (i) in the Amazon vegetation greenness responded to precipitation, radiation and temperature, with apparent time lags for most averaging interval periods associated with vegetation index responses of 0-4, 0-9 and 0-6 months, respectively; (ii) on average, the three climatic factors without time lags explained 27.28±21.73% (mean±1 SD) of vegetation index variation in the Amazon basin, and this value increased by 12.22% and reached 39.50±27.85% when time lags were considered; (iii) vegetation greenness in this region in non-drought years was primarily affected by precipitation and shortwave radiation, and these two factors altogether accounted for 93.47% of the total explanation; and (iv) in the common epicenter of the two droughts, pixels with a significant variation in precipitation, radiation and temperature accounted for 36.68%, 40.07% and 10.40%, respectively, of all pixels showing a significant decrease in vegetation index in 2005, and 15.69%, 2.01% and 45.25% in 2010, respectively. Overall, vegetation greenness declines during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were adversely influenced by precipitation, radiation and temperature; this study provides evidence of the influence of multiple climatic factors on vegetation during the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts.

Sorbed atrazine shifts into non-desorbable sites of soil organic matter during aging.

PubMed

Park, Jeong-Hun; Feng, Yucheng; Cho, Sung Yong; Voice, Thomas C; Boyd, Stephen A

2004-11-01

Soil-chemical contact time (aging) is an important determinant of the sorption and desorption characteristics of the organic contaminants and pesticides in the environment. The effects of aging on mechanism-specific sorption and desorption of atrazine were studied in soil and clay slurries. Sorption isotherm and desorption kinetic experiments were performed, and soil-water distribution coefficients and desorption rate parameters were evaluated using linear and non-linear sorption equations and a three-site desorption model, respectively. Aging time for sorption of atrazine in sterilized soil and clay slurries ranged from 2 days to 8 months. Atrazine sorption isotherms were nearly linear (r(2)>0.97) and sorption coefficients were strongly correlated to soil organic carbon content. Sorption distribution coefficients (K(d)) increased with increase in age in all five soils studied, but not for K-montmorillonite. Sorption non-linearity did not increase with increase in age except for the Houghton muck soil. Desorption profiles were well described by the three-site desorption model. The equilibrium site fraction (f(eq)) decreased and the non-desorbable site fraction (f(nd)) increased as a function of aging time in all soils. For K-montmorillonite, f(nd) approximately 0 regardless of aging, showing that aging phenomena are sorbent/mechanism specific. In all soils, it was found that when normalized to soil organic matter content, the concentration of atrazine in desorbable sites was relatively constant, whereas that in non-desorbable site increased. This, and the lack of aging effects on desorption from montmorillonite, suggests that sorption into non-desorbable sites of soil organic matter is primary source of increased atrazine sorption in soils during aging.

Optimal management of non-Markovian biological populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2007-01-01

Wildlife populations typically are described by Markovian models, with population dynamics influenced at each point in time by current but not previous population levels. Considerable work has been done on identifying optimal management strategies under the Markovian assumption. In this paper we generalize this work to non-Markovian systems, for which population responses to management are influenced by lagged as well as current status and/or controls. We use the maximum principle of optimal control theory to derive conditions for the optimal management such a system, and illustrate the effects of lags on the structure of optimal habitat strategies for a predator-prey system.

Turbulence Modeling for Shock Wave/Turbulent Boundary Layer Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillard, Randolph P.

2011-01-01

Accurate aerodynamic computational predictions are essential for the safety of space vehicles, but these computations are of limited accuracy when large pressure gradients are present in the flow. The goal of the current project is to improve the state of compressible turbulence modeling for high speed flows with shock wave / turbulent boundary layer interactions (SWTBLI). Emphasis will be placed on models that can accurately predict the separated region caused by the SWTBLI. These flows are classified as nonequilibrium boundary layers because of the very large and variable adverse pressure gradients caused by the shock waves. The lag model was designed to model these nonequilibrium flows by incorporating history effects. Standard one- and two-equation models (Spalart Allmaras and SST) and the lag model will be run and compared to a new lag model. This new model, the Reynolds stress tensor lag model (lagRST), will be assessed against multiple wind tunnel tests and correlations. The basis of the lag and lagRST models are to preserve the accuracy of the standard turbulence models in equilibrium turbulence, when the Reynolds stresses are linearly related to the mean strain rates, but create a lag between mean strain rate effects and turbulence when nonequilibrium effects become important, such as in large pressure gradients. The affect this lag has on the results for SWBLI and massively separated flows will be determined. These computations will be done with a modified version of the OVERFLOW code. This code solves the RANS equations on overset grids. It was used for this study for its ability to input very complex geometries into the flow solver, such as the Space Shuttle in the full stack configuration. The model was successfully implemented within two versions of the OVERFLOW code. Results show a substantial improvement over the baseline models for transonic separated flows. The results are mixed for the SWBLI assessed. Separation predictions are not as good as the baseline models, but the over prediction of the peak heat flux downstream of the reattachment shock that plagues many models is reduced.

Coda-wave and ambient noise interferometry using an offset vertical array at Iwanuma site, northeast Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minami, K.; Yamamoto, M.; Nishimura, T.; Nakahara, H.; Shiomi, K.

2013-12-01

Seismic interferometry using vertical borehole arrays is a powerful tool to estimate the shallow subsurface structure and its time lapse changes. However, the wave fields surrounding borehole arrays are non-isotropic due to the existence of ground surface and non-uniform distribution of sources, and do not meet the requirements of the seismic interferometry in a strict sense. In this study, to examine differences between wave fields of coda waves and ambient noise, and to estimate their effects on the results of seismic interferometry, we conducted a temporal seismic experiment using zero-offset and offset vertical arrays. We installed two 3-components seismometers (hereafter called Surface1 and Surface2) at the ground surface in the vicinity of NIED Iwanuma site (Miyagi Pref., Japan). Surface1 is placed just above the Hi-net downhole seismometer whose depth is 101 m, and Surface2 is placed 70 m away from Surface1. To extract the wave propagation between these 3 seismometers, we compute the cross-correlation functions (CCFs) of coda-wave and ambient noise for each pair of the zero-offset vertical (Hi-net-Surface1), finite-offset vertical (Hi-net-Surface2), and horizontal (Surface1-Surface2) arrays. We use the frequency bands of 4-8, 8-16 Hz in the CCF computation. The characteristics of obtained CCFs are summarized as follows; (1) in all frequency bands, the peak lag times of CCFs from coda waves are almost the same between the vertical and offset-vertical arrays irrespective of different inter-station distance, and those for the horizontal array are around 0 s. (2) the peak lag times of CCFs from ambient noise show slight differences, that is, those obtained from the vertical array are earlier than those from the offset-vertical array, and those from the horizontal array are around 0.05 s. (3) the peak lag times of CCFs for the vertical array obtained from ambient noise analyses are earlier than those from the coda-wave analyses. These results indicate that wave fields of coda-wave are mainly composed of vertically propagating waves, while those of ambient noise are composed of both vertically and horizontally propagating waves. To explain these characteristics of the CCFs obtained from different wave fields, we conducted a numerical simulation of interferometry based on the concept of stationary phase. Here, we assume isotropic upward incidence of SV-wave into a homogeneous half-space, and compute CCFs for the zero-offset and finite-offset vertical arrays by taking into account the reflection and conversion of P-SV waves at the free surface. Due to the effectively non-isotropic wave field, the simulated CCF for the zero-offset vertical array shows slight delay in peak lag time and its amplitudes decrease in the acausal part. On the other hand, the simulated CCF for finite-offset vertical array shows amplitude decrease and no peak lag time shift. These results are consistent with the difference in peak lag times obtained from coda-wave and ambient noise analyses. Our observations and theoretical consideration suggest that the careful consideration of wave fields is important in the application of seismic interferometry to borehole array data.

Population pharmacokinetic modelling of non-linear brain distribution of morphine: influence of active saturable influx and P-glycoprotein mediated efflux

PubMed Central

Groenendaal, D; Freijer, J; de Mik, D; Bouw, M R; Danhof, M; de Lange, E C M

2007-01-01

Background and purpose: Biophase equilibration must be considered to gain insight into the mechanisms underlying the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) correlations of opioids. The objective was to characterise in a quantitative manner the non-linear distribution kinetics of morphine in brain. Experimental approach: Male rats received a 10-min infusion of 4 mg kg−1 of morphine, combined with a continuous infusion of the P-glycoprotein (Pgp) inhibitor GF120918 or vehicle, or 40 mg kg−1 morphine alone. Unbound extracellular fluid (ECF) concentrations obtained by intracerebral microdialysis and total blood concentrations were analysed using a population modelling approach. Key results: Blood pharmacokinetics of morphine was best described with a three-compartment model and was not influenced by GF120918. Non-linear distribution kinetics in brain ECF was observed with increasing dose. A one compartment distribution model was developed, with separate expressions for passive diffusion, active saturable influx and active efflux by Pgp. The passive diffusion rate constant was 0.0014 min−1. The active efflux rate constant decreased from 0.0195 min−1 to 0.0113 min−1 in the presence of GF120918. The active influx was insensitive to GF120918 and had a maximum transport (Nmax/Vecf) of 0.66 ng min−1 ml−1 and was saturated at low concentrations of morphine (C50=9.9 ng ml−1). Conclusions and implications: Brain distribution of morphine is determined by three factors: limited passive diffusion; active efflux, reduced by 42% by Pgp inhibition; low capacity active uptake. This implies blood concentration-dependency and sensitivity to drug-drug interactions. These factors should be taken into account in further investigations on PK-PD correlations of morphine. PMID:17471182

Association between flood and the morbidity of bacillary dysentery in Zibo City, China: a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Feifei; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Zhidong; Zhang, Caixia; Jiang, Baofa

2016-12-01

This study examined the relationship between daily morbidity of bacillary dysentery and flood in 2007 in Zibo City, China, using a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) on the basis of multivariate model and stratified analysis at different lagged days were calculated to estimate the risk of flood on bacillary dysentery. A total of 902 notified bacillary dysentery cases were identified during the study period. The median of case distribution was 7-year-old and biased to children. Multivariable analysis showed that flood was associated with an increased risk of bacillary dysentery, with the largest OR of 1.849 (95 % CI 1.229-2.780) at 2-day lag. Gender-specific analysis showed that there was a significant association between flood and bacillary dysentery among males only (ORs >1 from lag 1 to lag 5), with the strongest lagged effect at 2-day lag (OR = 2.820, 95 % CI 1.629-4.881), and the result of age-specific indicated that youngsters had a slightly larger risk to develop flood-related bacillary dysentery than older people at one shorter lagged day (OR = 2.000, 95 % CI 1.128-3.546 in youngsters at lag 2; OR = 1.879, 95 % CI 1.069-3.305 in older people at lag 3). Our study has confirmed that there is a positive association between flood and the risk of bacillary dysentery in selected study area. Males and youngsters may be the vulnerable and high-risk populations to develop the flood-related bacillary dysentery. Results from this study will provide recommendations to make available strategies for government to deal with negative health outcomes due to floods.

Association between flood and the morbidity of bacillary dysentery in Zibo City, China: a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study.

PubMed

Zhang, Feifei; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Zhidong; Zhang, Caixia; Jiang, Baofa

2016-12-01

This study examined the relationship between daily morbidity of bacillary dysentery and flood in 2007 in Zibo City, China, using a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) on the basis of multivariate model and stratified analysis at different lagged days were calculated to estimate the risk of flood on bacillary dysentery. A total of 902 notified bacillary dysentery cases were identified during the study period. The median of case distribution was 7-year-old and biased to children. Multivariable analysis showed that flood was associated with an increased risk of bacillary dysentery, with the largest OR of 1.849 (95 % CI 1.229-2.780) at 2-day lag. Gender-specific analysis showed that there was a significant association between flood and bacillary dysentery among males only (ORs >1 from lag 1 to lag 5), with the strongest lagged effect at 2-day lag (OR = 2.820, 95 % CI 1.629-4.881), and the result of age-specific indicated that youngsters had a slightly larger risk to develop flood-related bacillary dysentery than older people at one shorter lagged day (OR = 2.000, 95 % CI 1.128-3.546 in youngsters at lag 2; OR = 1.879, 95 % CI 1.069-3.305 in older people at lag 3). Our study has confirmed that there is a positive association between flood and the risk of bacillary dysentery in selected study area. Males and youngsters may be the vulnerable and high-risk populations to develop the flood-related bacillary dysentery. Results from this study will provide recommendations to make available strategies for government to deal with negative health outcomes due to floods.

Black Hole Variability in MHD: A Numerical Test of the Propagating Fluctuations Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogg, J. Drew; Reynolds, Christopher S.

2017-08-01

The variability properties of accreting black hole systems offer a crucial probe of the accretion physics providing the angular momentum transport and enabling the mass accretion. A few of the most telling signatures are the characteristic log-normal flux distributions, linear RMS-flux relations, and frequency-dependent time lags between energy bands. These commonly observed properties are often interpreted as evidence of inward propagating mass accretion rate fluctuations where fluctuations in the accretion flow combine multiplicatively. We present recent results from a long, semi-global MHD simulation of a thin (h/r=0.1) accretion disk that naturally reproduces this phenomenology. This bolsters the theoretical underpinnings of the “propagating fluctuations” model and demonstrates the viability of this process manifesting in MHD turbulence driven by the magnetorotational instability. We find that a key ingredient to this model is the modulation of the effective α parameter by the magnetic dynamo.

Analytical Studies on the Synchronization of a Network of Linearly-Coupled Simple Chaotic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivaganesh, G.; Arulgnanam, A.; Seethalakshmi, A. N.; Selvaraj, S.

2018-05-01

We present explicit generalized analytical solutions for a network of linearly-coupled simple chaotic systems. Analytical solutions are obtained for the normalized state equations of a network of linearly-coupled systems driven by a common chaotic drive system. Two parameter bifurcation diagrams revealing the various hidden synchronization regions, such as complete, phase and phase-lag synchronization are identified using the analytical results. The synchronization dynamics and their stability are studied using phase portraits and the master stability function, respectively. Further, experimental results for linearly-coupled simple chaotic systems are presented to confirm the analytical results. The synchronization dynamics of a network of chaotic systems studied analytically is reported for the first time.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China.

PubMed

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-12-10

Background : Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods : We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an "optimum temperature" that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results : The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%-13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%-12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%-2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%-24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%-16.01%); Conclusions : In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China

PubMed Central

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-01-01

Background: Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods: We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an “optimum temperature” that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results: The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%–13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%–12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%–2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%–24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%–16.01%); Conclusions: In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios. PMID:27973401

Shear Melting of a Colloidal Glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisenmann, Christoph; Kim, Chanjoong; Mattsson, Johan; Weitz, David A.

2010-01-01

We use confocal microscopy to explore shear melting of colloidal glasses, which occurs at strains of ˜0.08, coinciding with a strongly non-Gaussian step size distribution. For larger strains, the particle mean square displacement increases linearly with strain and the step size distribution becomes Gaussian. The effective diffusion coefficient varies approximately linearly with shear rate, consistent with a modified Stokes-Einstein relationship in which thermal energy is replaced by shear energy and the length scale is set by the size of cooperatively moving regions consisting of ˜3 particles.

Polarization curve measurements combined with potential probe sensing for determining current density distribution in vanadium redox-flow batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Maik; Bredemeyer, Niels; Tenhumberg, Nils; Turek, Thomas

2016-03-01

Potential probes are applied to vanadium redox-flow batteries for determination of effective felt resistance and current density distribution. During the measurement of polarization curves in 100 cm2 cells with different carbon felt compression rates, alternating potential steps at cell voltages between 0.6 V and 2.0 V are applied. Polarization curves are recorded at different flow rates and states of charge of the battery. Increasing compression rates lead to lower effective felt resistances and a more uniform resistance distribution. Low flow rates at high or low state of charge result in non-linear current density distribution with high gradients, while high flow rates give rise to a nearly linear behavior.

Extraction of phase information in daily stock prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiwara, Yoshi; Maekawa, Satoshi

2000-06-01

It is known that, in an intermediate time-scale such as days, stock market fluctuations possess several statistical properties that are common to different markets. Namely, logarithmic returns of an asset price have (i) truncated Pareto-Lévy distribution, (ii) vanishing linear correlation, (iii) volatility clustering and its power-law autocorrelation. The fact (ii) is a consequence of nonexistence of arbitragers with simple strategies, but this does not mean statistical independence of market fluctuations. Little attention has been paid to temporal structure of higher-order statistics, although it contains some important information on market dynamics. We applied a signal separation technique, called Independent Component Analysis (ICA), to actual data of daily stock prices in Tokyo and New York Stock Exchange (TSE/NYSE). ICA does a linear transformation of lag vectors from time-series to find independent components by a nonlinear algorithm. We obtained a similar impulse response for these dataset. If it were a Martingale process, it can be shown that impulse response should be a delta-function under a few conditions that could be numerically checked and as was verified by surrogate data. This result would provide information on the market dynamics including speculative bubbles and arbitrating processes. .

Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Sasmita; Jha, Madan K.

2013-12-01

The potential of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in predicting transient water levels over a groundwater basin were compared. MLR and ANN modeling was carried out at 17 sites in Japan, considering all significant inputs: rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage, 11 seasonal dummy variables, and influential lags of rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage and groundwater level. Seventeen site-specific ANN models were developed, using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical and graphical indicators. Comparison of the goodness-of-fit statistics of the MLR models with those of the ANN models indicated that there is better agreement between the ANN-predicted groundwater levels and the observed groundwater levels at all the sites, compared to the MLR. This finding was supported by the graphical indicators and the residual analysis. Thus, it is concluded that the ANN technique is superior to the MLR technique in predicting spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater levels in a basin. However, considering the practical advantages of the MLR technique, it is recommended as an alternative and cost-effective groundwater modeling tool.

Force Transmission Modes of Non-Cohesive and Cohesive Materials at the Critical State.

PubMed

Wang, Ji-Peng

2017-08-31

This paper investigates the force transmission modes, mainly described by probability density distributions, in non-cohesive dry and cohesive wet granular materials by discrete element modeling. The critical state force transmission patterns are focused on with the contact model effect being analyzed. By shearing relatively dense and loose dry specimens to the critical state in the conventional triaxial loading path, it is observed that there is a unique critical state force transmission mode. There is a universe critical state force distribution pattern for both the normal contact forces and tangential contact forces. Furthermore, it is found that using either the linear Hooke or the non-linear Hertz model does not affect the universe force transmission mode, and it is only related to the grain size distribution. Wet granular materials are also simulated by incorporating a water bridge model. Dense and loose wet granular materials are tested, and the critical state behavior for the wet material is also observed. The critical state strength and void ratio of wet granular materials are higher than those of a non-cohesive material. The critical state inter-particle distribution is altered from that of a non-cohesive material with higher probability in relatively weak forces. Grains in non-cohesive materials are under compressive stresses, and their principal directions are mainly in the axial loading direction. However, for cohesive wet granular materials, some particles are in tension, and the tensile stresses are in the horizontal direction on which the confinement is applied. The additional confinement by the tensile stress explains the macro strength and dilatancy increase in wet samples.

Force Transmission Modes of Non-Cohesive and Cohesive Materials at the Critical State

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the force transmission modes, mainly described by probability density distributions, in non-cohesive dry and cohesive wet granular materials by discrete element modeling. The critical state force transmission patterns are focused on with the contact model effect being analyzed. By shearing relatively dense and loose dry specimens to the critical state in the conventional triaxial loading path, it is observed that there is a unique critical state force transmission mode. There is a universe critical state force distribution pattern for both the normal contact forces and tangential contact forces. Furthermore, it is found that using either the linear Hooke or the non-linear Hertz model does not affect the universe force transmission mode, and it is only related to the grain size distribution. Wet granular materials are also simulated by incorporating a water bridge model. Dense and loose wet granular materials are tested, and the critical state behavior for the wet material is also observed. The critical state strength and void ratio of wet granular materials are higher than those of a non-cohesive material. The critical state inter-particle distribution is altered from that of a non-cohesive material with higher probability in relatively weak forces. Grains in non-cohesive materials are under compressive stresses, and their principal directions are mainly in the axial loading direction. However, for cohesive wet granular materials, some particles are in tension, and the tensile stresses are in the horizontal direction on which the confinement is applied. The additional confinement by the tensile stress explains the macro strength and dilatancy increase in wet samples. PMID:28858238

Short-term effects of air pollution on daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in western China.

PubMed

Ma, Yuxia; Zhang, Haipeng; Zhao, Yuxin; Zhou, Jianding; Yang, Sixu; Zheng, Xiaodong; Wang, Shigong

2017-06-01

Controlling the confounding factors on cardiovascular diseases, such as long-time trend, calendar effect, and meteorological factors, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to investigate the short-term effects of air pollutants (PM 10 , SO 2 , and NO 2 ) on daily cardiovascular admissions from March 1st to May 31st during 2007 to 2011 in Lanzhou, a heavily polluted city in western China. The influences of air pollutants were examined with different lag structures, and the potential effect modification by dust storm in spring was also investigated. Significant associations were found between air pollutants and hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases both on dust event days and non-dust event days in spring. Air pollutants had lag effects on different age and gender groups. Relative risks (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a 10 μg/m 3 increase were 1.14 (1.04~1.26) on lag1 for PM 10 , 1.31 (1.21~1.51) on lag01 for SO 2 , and 1.96 (1.49~2.57) on lag02 for NO 2 on dust days. Stronger effects of air pollutants were observed for females and the elderly (≥60 years). Our analysis concluded that the effects of air pollutants on cardiovascular admissions on dust days were significantly stronger than non-dust days. The current study strengthens the evidence of effects of air pollution on health and dust-exacerbated cardiovascular admissions in Lanzhou.

Modeling Episodic Ephemeral Brine Lake Evaporation and Salt Crystallization on the Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, T.; Harman, C. J.; Kipnis, E. L.; Bowen, B. B.

2017-12-01

Public concern about apparent reductions in the areal extent of the Bonneville Salt Flat (BSF) and perceived changes in inundation frequency has motivated renewed interest in the hydrologic and geochemical behavior of this salt playa. In this study, we develop a numerical modeling framework to simulate the relationship between hydrometeorologic variability, brine evaporation and salt crystallization processes on BSF. The BSF, locates in Utah, is the remnant of paleo-lake Bonneville, and is capped by up to 1 meter of salt deposition over a 100 km2 area. The BSF has two distinct hydrologic periods each year: a winter wet periods with standing surface brine and the summer dry periods when the brine is evaporated, exposing the surface salt crust. We develop a lumped non-linear dynamical models coupling conservation expressions from water, dissolved salt and thermal energy to investigate the seasonal and diurnal behavior of brine during the transition from standing brine to exposed salt at BSF. The lumped dynamic models capture important nonlinear and kinetic effects introduced by the high ionic concentration of the brine, including the pronounced effect of the depressed water activity coefficient on evaporation. The salt crystallization and dissolution rate is modeled as a kinetic process linearly proportional to the degree of supersaturation of brine. The model generates predictions of the brine temperature and the solute and solvent masses controlled by diurnal net radiation input and aerodynamic forcing. Two distinct mechanisms emerge as potential controls on salt production and dissolution: (1) evapo-concentration and (2) changes in solubility related to changes in brine temperature. Although the evaporation of water is responsible for ultimate disappearance of the brine each season ,variation in solubility is found to be the dominant control on diurnal cycles of salt precipitation and dissolution in the BSF case. Most salt is crystallized during nighttime, but the long-term salt production is driven by the seasonal evapo-concentration. Moreover, we find that the timing of the brine temperature fluctuations and salt production lags the diurnal net radiation input. The key controls on the magnitudes of these effects and phase lags are determined by analytical periodic analysis of linearized forms of the model.

Distributional Tests for Gravitational Waves from Core-Collapse Supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szczepanczyk, Marek; LIGO Collaboration

2017-01-01

Core-Collapse Supernovae (CCSN) are spectacular and violent deaths of massive stars. CCSN are some of the most interesting candidates for producing gravitational-waves (GW) transients. Current published results focus on methodologies to detect single GW unmodelled transients. The advantages of these tests are that they do not require a background for which we have an analytical model. Examples of non-parametric tests that will be compared are Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Mann-Whitney, chi squared, and asymmetric chi squared. I will present methodological results using publicly released LIGO-S6 data recolored to the design sensitivity of Advanced LIGO and that will be time lagged between interferometers sites so that the resulting coincident events are not GW.

A new technology perspective and engineering tools approach for large, complex and distributed mission and safety critical systems components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carrio, Miguel A., Jr.

1988-01-01

Rapidly emerging technology and methodologies have out-paced the systems development processes' ability to use them effectively, if at all. At the same time, the tools used to build systems are becoming obsolescent themselves as a consequence of the same technology lag that plagues systems development. The net result is that systems development activities have not been able to take advantage of available technology and have become equally dependent on aging and ineffective computer-aided engineering tools. New methods and tools approaches are essential if the demands of non-stop and Mission and Safety Critical (MASC) components are to be met.

Bi-directional thruster development and test report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacot, A. D.; Bushnell, G. S.; Anderson, T. M.

1990-01-01

The design, calibration and testing of a cold gas, bi-directional throttlable thruster are discussed. The thruster consists of an electro-pneumatic servovalve exhausting through opposite nozzles with a high gain pressure feedback loop to optimize performance. The thruster force was measured to determine hysteresis and linearity. Integral gain was used to maximize performance for linearity, hysteresis, and minimum thrust requirements. Proportional gain provided high dynamic response (bandwidth and phase lag). Thruster performance is very important since the thrusters are intended to be used for active control.

Non-Asymptotic Oracle Inequalities for the High-Dimensional Cox Regression via Lasso.

PubMed

Kong, Shengchun; Nan, Bin

2014-01-01

We consider finite sample properties of the regularized high-dimensional Cox regression via lasso. Existing literature focuses on linear models or generalized linear models with Lipschitz loss functions, where the empirical risk functions are the summations of independent and identically distributed (iid) losses. The summands in the negative log partial likelihood function for censored survival data, however, are neither iid nor Lipschitz.We first approximate the negative log partial likelihood function by a sum of iid non-Lipschitz terms, then derive the non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the lasso penalized Cox regression using pointwise arguments to tackle the difficulties caused by lacking iid Lipschitz losses.

Non-Asymptotic Oracle Inequalities for the High-Dimensional Cox Regression via Lasso

PubMed Central

Kong, Shengchun; Nan, Bin

2013-01-01

We consider finite sample properties of the regularized high-dimensional Cox regression via lasso. Existing literature focuses on linear models or generalized linear models with Lipschitz loss functions, where the empirical risk functions are the summations of independent and identically distributed (iid) losses. The summands in the negative log partial likelihood function for censored survival data, however, are neither iid nor Lipschitz.We first approximate the negative log partial likelihood function by a sum of iid non-Lipschitz terms, then derive the non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the lasso penalized Cox regression using pointwise arguments to tackle the difficulties caused by lacking iid Lipschitz losses. PMID:24516328

Insula Demonstrates a Non-Linear Response to Varying Demand for Cognitive Control and Weaker Resting Connectivity With the Executive Control Network in Smokers.

PubMed

Fedota, John R; Matous, Allison L; Salmeron, Betty Jo; Gu, Hong; Ross, Thomas J; Stein, Elliot A

2016-09-01

Deficits in cognitive control processes are a primary characteristic of nicotine addiction. However, while network-based connectivity measures of dysfunction have frequently been observed, empirical evidence of task-based dysfunction in these processes has been inconsistent. Here, in a sample of smokers (n=35) and non-smokers (n=21), a previously validated parametric flanker task is employed to characterize addiction-related alterations in responses to varying (ie, high, intermediate, and low) demands for cognitive control. This approach yields a demand-response curve that aims to characterize potential non-linear responses to increased demand for control, including insensitivities or lags in fully activating the cognitive control network. We further used task-based differences in activation between groups as seeds for resting-state analysis of network dysfunction in an effort to more closely link prior inconsistencies in task-related activation with evidence of impaired network connectivity in smokers. For both smokers and non-smokers, neuroimaging results showed similar increases in activation in brain areas associated with cognitive control. However, reduced activation in right insula was seen only in smokers and only when processing intermediate demand for cognitive control. Further, in smokers, this task-modulated right insula showed weaker functional connectivity with the superior frontal gyrus, a component of the task-positive executive control network. These results demonstrate that the neural instantiation of salience attribution in smokers is both more effortful to fully activate and has more difficulty communicating with the exogenous, task-positive, executive control network. Together, these findings further articulate the cognitive control dysfunction associated with smoking and illustrate a specific brain circuit potentially responsible.

Lack of spacing effects during piano learning.

PubMed

Wiseheart, Melody; D'Souza, Annalise A; Chae, Jacey

2017-01-01

Spacing effects during retention of verbal information are easily obtained, and the effect size is large. Relatively little evidence exists on whether motor skill retention benefits from distributed practice, with even less evidence on complex motor skills. We taught a 17-note musical sequence on a piano to individuals without prior formal training. There were five lags between learning episodes: 0-, 1-, 5-, 10-, and 15-min. After a 5-min retention interval, participants' performance was measured using three criteria: accuracy of note playing, consistency in pressure applied to the keys, and consistency in timing. No spacing effect was found, suggesting that the effect may not always be demonstrable for complex motor skills or non-verbal abilities (timing and motor skills). Additionally, we taught short phrases from five songs, using the same set of lags and retention interval, and did not find any spacing effect for accuracy of song reproduction. Our findings indicate that although the spacing effect is one of the most robust phenomena in the memory literature (as demonstrated by verbal learning studies), the effect may vary when considered in the novel realm of complex motor skills such as piano performance.

Lack of spacing effects during piano learning

PubMed Central

D’Souza, Annalise A.; Chae, Jacey

2017-01-01

Spacing effects during retention of verbal information are easily obtained, and the effect size is large. Relatively little evidence exists on whether motor skill retention benefits from distributed practice, with even less evidence on complex motor skills. We taught a 17-note musical sequence on a piano to individuals without prior formal training. There were five lags between learning episodes: 0-, 1-, 5-, 10-, and 15-min. After a 5-min retention interval, participants’ performance was measured using three criteria: accuracy of note playing, consistency in pressure applied to the keys, and consistency in timing. No spacing effect was found, suggesting that the effect may not always be demonstrable for complex motor skills or non-verbal abilities (timing and motor skills). Additionally, we taught short phrases from five songs, using the same set of lags and retention interval, and did not find any spacing effect for accuracy of song reproduction. Our findings indicate that although the spacing effect is one of the most robust phenomena in the memory literature (as demonstrated by verbal learning studies), the effect may vary when considered in the novel realm of complex motor skills such as piano performance. PMID:28800631

Electrostatic interaction between stereocilia: II. Influence on the mechanical properties of the hair bundle.

PubMed

Dolgobrodov, S G; Lukashkin, A N; Russell, I J

2000-12-01

This paper is based on our model [Dolgobrodov et al., 2000. Hear. Res., submitted for publication] in which we examine the significance of the polyanionic surface layers of stereocilia for electrostatic interaction between them. We analyse how electrostatic forces modify the mechanical properties of the sensory hair bundle. Different charge distribution profiles within the glycocalyx are considered. When modelling a typical experiment on bundle stiffness measurements, applying an external force to the tallest row of stereocilia shows that the asymptotic stiffness of the hair bundle for negative displacements is always larger than the asymptotic stiffness for positive displacements. This increase in stiffness is monotonic for even charge distribution and shows local minima when the negative charge is concentrated in a thinner layer within the cell coat. The minima can also originate from the co-operative effect of electrostatic repulsion and inter-ciliary links with non-linear mechanical properties. Existing experimental observations are compared with the predictions of the model. We conclude that the forces of electrostatic interaction between stereocilia may influence the mechanical properties of the hair bundle and, being strongly non-linear, contribute to the non-linear phenomena, which have been recorded from the auditory periphery.

Lagged kernel machine regression for identifying time windows of susceptibility to exposures of complex mixtures.

PubMed

Liu, Shelley H; Bobb, Jennifer F; Lee, Kyu Ha; Gennings, Chris; Claus Henn, Birgit; Bellinger, David; Austin, Christine; Schnaas, Lourdes; Tellez-Rojo, Martha M; Hu, Howard; Wright, Robert O; Arora, Manish; Coull, Brent A

2018-07-01

The impact of neurotoxic chemical mixtures on children's health is a critical public health concern. It is well known that during early life, toxic exposures may impact cognitive function during critical time intervals of increased vulnerability, known as windows of susceptibility. Knowledge on time windows of susceptibility can help inform treatment and prevention strategies, as chemical mixtures may affect a developmental process that is operating at a specific life phase. There are several statistical challenges in estimating the health effects of time-varying exposures to multi-pollutant mixtures, such as: multi-collinearity among the exposures both within time points and across time points, and complex exposure-response relationships. To address these concerns, we develop a flexible statistical method, called lagged kernel machine regression (LKMR). LKMR identifies critical exposure windows of chemical mixtures, and accounts for complex non-linear and non-additive effects of the mixture at any given exposure window. Specifically, LKMR estimates how the effects of a mixture of exposures change with the exposure time window using a Bayesian formulation of a grouped, fused lasso penalty within a kernel machine regression (KMR) framework. A simulation study demonstrates the performance of LKMR under realistic exposure-response scenarios, and demonstrates large gains over approaches that consider each time window separately, particularly when serial correlation among the time-varying exposures is high. Furthermore, LKMR demonstrates gains over another approach that inputs all time-specific chemical concentrations together into a single KMR. We apply LKMR to estimate associations between neurodevelopment and metal mixtures in Early Life Exposures in Mexico and Neurotoxicology, a prospective cohort study of child health in Mexico City.

Delay-range-dependent chaos synchronization approach under varying time-lags and delayed nonlinear coupling.

PubMed

Zaheer, Muhammad Hamad; Rehan, Muhammad; Mustafa, Ghulam; Ashraf, Muhammad

2014-11-01

This paper proposes a novel state feedback delay-range-dependent control approach for chaos synchronization in coupled nonlinear time-delay systems. The coupling between two systems is esteemed to be nonlinear subject to time-lags. Time-varying nature of both the intrinsic and the coupling delays is incorporated to broad scope of the present study for a better-quality synchronization controller synthesis. Lyapunov-Krasovskii (LK) functional is employed to derive delay-range-dependent conditions that can be solved by means of the conventional linear matrix inequality (LMI)-tools. The resultant control approach for chaos synchronization of the master-slave time-delay systems considers non-zero lower bound of the intrinsic as well as the coupling time-delays. Further, the delay-dependent synchronization condition has been established as a special case of the proposed LK functional treatment. Furthermore, a delay-range-dependent condition, independent of the delay-rate, has been provided to address the situation when upper bound of the delay-derivative is unknown. A robust state feedback control methodology is formulated for synchronization of the time-delay chaotic networks against the L2 norm bounded perturbations by minimizing the L2 gain from the disturbance to the synchronization error. Numerical simulation results are provided for the time-delay chaotic networks to show effectiveness of the proposed delay-range-dependent chaos synchronization methodologies. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LAG3 expression in active Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections.

PubMed

Phillips, Bonnie L; Mehra, Smriti; Ahsan, Muhammad H; Selman, Moises; Khader, Shabaana A; Kaushal, Deepak

2015-03-01

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is a highly successful pathogen because of its ability to persist in human lungs for long periods of time. MTB modulates several aspects of the host immune response. Lymphocyte-activation gene 3 (LAG3) is a protein with a high affinity for the CD4 receptor and is expressed mainly by regulatory T cells with immunomodulatory functions. To understand the function of LAG3 during MTB infection, a nonhuman primate model of tuberculosis, which recapitulates key aspects of natural human infection in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta), was used. We show that the expression of LAG3 is highly induced in the lungs and particularly in the granulomatous lesions of macaques experimentally infected with MTB. Furthermore, we show that LAG3 expression is not induced in the lungs and lung granulomas of animals exhibiting latent tuberculosis infection. However, simian immunodeficiency virus-induced reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection results in an increased expression of LAG3 in the lungs. This response is not observed in nonhuman primates infected with non-MTB bacterial pathogens, nor with simian immunodeficiency virus alone. Our data show that LAG3 was expressed primarily on CD4(+) T cells, presumably by regulatory T cells but also by natural killer cells. The expression of LAG3 coincides with high bacterial burdens and changes in the host type 1 helper T-cell response. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Investigative Pathology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characteristics Associated with Sleep Duration, Chronotype, and Social Jet Lag in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malone, Susan Kohl; Zemel, Babette; Compher, Charlene; Souders, Margaret; Chittams, Jesse; Thompson, Aleda Leis; Lipman, Terri H.

2016-01-01

Sleep is a complex behavior with numerous health implications. Identifying sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics of sleep is important for determining those at greatest risk for sleep-related health disparities. In this cross-sectional study, general linear models were used to examine sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics…

40 CFR 86.1341-90 - Test cycle validation criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Test cycle validation criteria. 86... Procedures § 86.1341-90 Test cycle validation criteria. (a) To minimize the biasing effect of the time lag... brake horsepower-hour. (c) Regression line analysis to calculate validation statistics. (1) Linear...

40 CFR 86.1341-90 - Test cycle validation criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Test cycle validation criteria. 86... Procedures § 86.1341-90 Test cycle validation criteria. (a) To minimize the biasing effect of the time lag... brake horsepower-hour. (c) Regression line analysis to calculate validation statistics. (1) Linear...

40 CFR 86.1341-90 - Test cycle validation criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Test cycle validation criteria. 86... Procedures § 86.1341-90 Test cycle validation criteria. (a) To minimize the biasing effect of the time lag... brake horsepower-hour. (c) Regression line analysis to calculate validation statistics. (1) Linear...

An efficient finite element technique for sound propagation in axisymmetric hard wall ducts carrying high subsonic Mach number flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tag, I. A.; Lumsdaine, E.

1978-01-01

The general non-linear three-dimensional equation for acoustic potential is derived by using a perturbation technique. The linearized axisymmetric equation is then solved by using a finite element algorithm based on the Galerkin formulation for a harmonic time dependence. The solution is carried out in complex number notation for the acoustic velocity potential. Linear, isoparametric, quadrilateral elements with non-uniform distribution across the duct section are implemented. The resultant global matrix is stored in banded form and solved by using a modified Gauss elimination technique. Sound pressure levels and acoustic velocities are calculated from post element solutions. Different duct geometries are analyzed and compared with experimental results.

Evaluation of Airborne Remote Sensing Techniques for Predicting the Distribution of Energetic Compounds on Impact Areas

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-01

GPS) antennas. A fluxgate magnetometer is mounted in the forward assembly to compensate for the magnetic signature of the aircraft. A laser...recorded digitally on the ORAGS™ console (Figure 5) inside the helicopter in a binary format. The magnetometers are sampled at a 1200-Hz sample rate and...GPS. Accurate positioning requires a correction for this lag. Time lags among the magnetometers , fluxgate , and GPS signals were measured by a

Probabilistic measurement of non-physical constructs during early childhood: Epistemological implications for advancing psychosocial science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezruczko, N.; Fatani, S. S.

2010-07-01

Social researchers commonly compute ordinal raw scores and ratings to quantify human aptitudes, attitudes, and abilities but without a clear understanding of their limitations for scientific knowledge. In this research, common ordinal measures were compared to higher order linear (equal interval) scale measures to clarify implications for objectivity, precision, ontological coherence, and meaningfulness. Raw score gains, residualized raw gains, and linear gains calculated with a Rasch model were compared between Time 1 and Time 2 for observations from two early childhood learning assessments. Comparisons show major inconsistencies between ratings and linear gains. When gain distribution was dense, relatively compact, and initial status near item mid-range, linear measures and ratings were indistinguishable. When Time 1 status was distributed more broadly and magnitude of change variable, ratings were unrelated to linear gain, which emphasizes problematic implications of ordinal measures. Surprisingly, residualized gain scores did not significantly improve ordinal measurement of change. In general, raw scores and ratings may be meaningful in specific samples to establish order and high/low rank, but raw score differences suffer from non-uniform units. Even meaningfulness of sample comparisons, as well as derived proportions and percentages, are seriously affected by rank order distortions and should be avoided.

Linearized T-Matrix and Mie Scattering Computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spurr, R.; Wang, J.; Zeng, J.; Mishchenko, M. I.

2011-01-01

We present a new linearization of T-Matrix and Mie computations for light scattering by non-spherical and spherical particles, respectively. In addition to the usual extinction and scattering cross-sections and the scattering matrix outputs, the linearized models will generate analytical derivatives of these optical properties with respect to the real and imaginary parts of the particle refractive index, and (for non-spherical scatterers) with respect to the ''shape'' parameter (the spheroid aspect ratio, cylinder diameter/height ratio, Chebyshev particle deformation factor). These derivatives are based on the essential linearity of Maxwell's theory. Analytical derivatives are also available for polydisperse particle size distribution parameters such as the mode radius. The T-matrix formulation is based on the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies FORTRAN 77 code developed in the 1990s. The linearized scattering codes presented here are in FORTRAN 90 and will be made publicly available.

A new method to measure galaxy bias by combining the density and weak lensing fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pujol, Arnau; Chang, Chihway; Gaztañaga, Enrique

We present a new method to measure redshift-dependent galaxy bias by combining information from the galaxy density field and the weak lensing field. This method is based on the work of Amara et al., who use the galaxy density field to construct a bias-weighted convergence field κg. The main difference between Amara et al.'s work and our new implementation is that here we present another way to measure galaxy bias, using tomography instead of bias parametrizations. The correlation between κg and the true lensing field κ allows us to measure galaxy bias using different zero-lag correlations, such as / ormore » /. Our method measures the linear bias factor on linear scales, under the assumption of no stochasticity between galaxies and matter. We use the Marenostrum Institut de Ciències de l'Espai (MICE) simulation to measure the linear galaxy bias for a flux-limited sample (i < 22.5) in tomographic redshift bins using this method. This article is the first that studies the accuracy and systematic uncertainties associated with the implementation of the method and the regime in which it is consistent with the linear galaxy bias defined by projected two-point correlation functions (2PCF). We find that our method is consistent with a linear bias at the per cent level for scales larger than 30 arcmin, while non-linearities appear at smaller scales. This measurement is a good complement to other measurements of bias, since it does not depend strongly on σ8 as do the 2PCF measurements. We will apply this method to the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data in a follow-up article.« less

Time lag between deformation and seismicity along monogenetic volcanic unrest periods: The case of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamolda, Héctor; Felpeto, Alicia; Bethencourt, Abelardo

2017-07-01

Between 2011 and 2014 there were at least seven episodes of magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island, but only the first one led to a submarine eruption in 2011-2012. In order to study the relationship between GPS deformation and seismicity during these episodes, we compare the temporal evolution of the deformation with the cumulative seismic energy released. In some of the episodes both deformation and seismicity evolve in a very similar way, but in others a time lag appears between them, in which the deformation precedes the seismicity. Furthermore, a linear correlation between decimal logarithm of intruded magma volume and decimal logarithm of total seismic energy released along the different episodes has been observed. Therefore, if a future magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island follows this behavior with a proper time lag, we could have an a priori estimate on the order of magnitude the seismic energy released would reach.

Lag compensation of optical fibers or thermocouples to achieve waveform fidelity in dynamic gas pyrometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warshawsky, I.

1991-01-01

Fidelity of waveform reproduction requires constant amplitude ratio and constant time lag of a temperature sensor's indication, at all frequencies of interest. However, heat-transfer type sensors usually cannot satisfy these requirements. Equations for the actual indication of a thermocouple and an optical-fiber pyrometer are given explicitly, in terms of sensor and flowing-gas properties. A practical, realistic design of each type of sensor behaves like a first-order system with amplitude-ratio attenuation inversely proportional to frequency when the frequency exceeds the corner frequency. Only at much higher frequencies does the amplitude-ratio attenuation for the optical fiber sensor become inversely proportional to the square root of the frequency. Design options for improving the frequency response are discussed. On-line electrical lag compensation, using a linear amplifier and a passive compensation network, can extend the corner frequency of the thermocouple 100-fold or more; a similar passive network can be used for the optical-fiber sensor. Design details for these networks are presented.

Multiscale statistics of trajectories with applications to fluid particles in turbulence and football players

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Kai; Kadoch, Benjamin; Bos, Wouter

2017-11-01

The angle between two subsequent particle displacement increments is evaluated as a function of the time lag. The directional change of particles can thus be quantified at different scales and multiscale statistics can be performed. Flow dependent and geometry dependent features can be distinguished. The mean angle satisfies scaling behaviors for short time lags based on the smoothness of the trajectories. For intermediate time lags a power law behavior can be observed for some turbulent flows, which can be related to Kolmogorov scaling. The long time behavior depends on the confinement geometry of the flow. We show that the shape of the probability distribution function of the directional change can be well described by a Fischer distribution. Results for two-dimensional (direct and inverse cascade) and three-dimensional turbulence with and without confinement, illustrate the properties of the proposed multiscale statistics. The presented Monte-Carlo simulations allow disentangling geometry dependent and flow independent features. Finally, we also analyze trajectories of football players, which are, in general, not randomly spaced on a field.

No association of smoke-free ordinances with profits from bingo and charitable games in Massachusetts

PubMed Central

Glantz, S; Wilson-Loots, R

2003-01-01

Background: Because it is widely played, claims that smoking restrictions will adversely affect bingo games is used as an argument against these policies. We used publicly available data from Massachusetts to assess the impact of 100% smoke-free ordinances on profits from bingo and other gambling sponsored by charitable organisations between 1985 and 2001. Methods: We conducted two analyses: (1) a general linear model implementation of a time series analysis with net profits (adjusted to 2001 dollars) as the dependent variable, and community (as a fixed effect), year, lagged net profits, and the length of time the ordinance had been in force as the independent variables; (2) multiple linear regression of total state profits against time, lagged profits, and the percentage of the entire state population in communities that allow charitable gaming but prohibit smoking. Results: The general linear model analysis of data from individual communities showed that, while adjusted profits fell over time, this effect was not related to the presence of an ordinance. The analysis in terms of the fraction of the population living in communities with ordinances yielded the same result. Conclusion: Policymakers can implement smoke-free policies without concern that these policies will affect charitable gaming. PMID:14660778

Adaptation of the phase of the human linear vestibulo-ocular reflex (LVOR) and effects on the oculomotor neural integrator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hegemann, S.; Shelhamer, M.; Kramer, P. D.; Zee, D. S.

2000-01-01

The phase of the translational linear VOR (LVOR) can be adaptively modified by exposure to a visual-vestibular mismatch. We extend here our earlier work on LVOR phase adaptation, and discuss the role of the oculomotor neural integrator. Ten subjects were oscillated laterally at 0.5 Hz, 0.3 g peak acceleration, while sitting upright on a linear sled. LVOR was assessed before and after adaptation with subjects tracking the remembered location of a target at 1 m in the dark. Phase and gain were measured by fitting sine waves to the desaccaded eye movements, and comparing sled and eye position. To adapt LVOR phase, the subject viewed a computer-generated stereoscopic visual display, at a virtual distance of 1 m, that moved so as to require either a phase lead or a phase lag of 53 deg. Adaptation lasted 20 min, during which subjects were oscillated at 0.5 Hz/0.3 g. Four of five subjects produced an adaptive change in the lag condition (range 4-45 deg), and each of five produced a change in the lead condition (range 19-56 deg), as requested. Changes in drift on eccentric gaze suggest that the oculomotor velocity-to-position integrator may be involved in the phase changes.

Global exponential stability and lag synchronization for delayed memristive fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg BAM neural networks with impulses.

PubMed

Yang, Wengui; Yu, Wenwu; Cao, Jinde; Alsaadi, Fuad E; Hayat, Tasawar

2018-02-01

This paper investigates the stability and lag synchronization for memristor-based fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with mixed delays (asynchronous time delays and continuously distributed delays) and impulses. By applying the inequality analysis technique, homeomorphism theory and some suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, some new sufficient conditions for the uniqueness and global exponential stability of equilibrium point are established. Furthermore, we obtain several sufficient criteria concerning globally exponential lag synchronization for the proposed system based on the framework of Filippov solution, differential inclusion theory and control theory. In addition, some examples with numerical simulations are given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of obtained results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating and testing interactions when explanatory variables are subject to non-classical measurement error.

PubMed

Murad, Havi; Kipnis, Victor; Freedman, Laurence S

2016-10-01

Assessing interactions in linear regression models when covariates have measurement error (ME) is complex.We previously described regression calibration (RC) methods that yield consistent estimators and standard errors for interaction coefficients of normally distributed covariates having classical ME. Here we extend normal based RC (NBRC) and linear RC (LRC) methods to a non-classical ME model, and describe more efficient versions that combine estimates from the main study and internal sub-study. We apply these methods to data from the Observing Protein and Energy Nutrition (OPEN) study. Using simulations we show that (i) for normally distributed covariates efficient NBRC and LRC were nearly unbiased and performed well with sub-study size ≥200; (ii) efficient NBRC had lower MSE than efficient LRC; (iii) the naïve test for a single interaction had type I error probability close to the nominal significance level, whereas efficient NBRC and LRC were slightly anti-conservative but more powerful; (iv) for markedly non-normal covariates, efficient LRC yielded less biased estimators with smaller variance than efficient NBRC. Our simulations suggest that it is preferable to use: (i) efficient NBRC for estimating and testing interaction effects of normally distributed covariates and (ii) efficient LRC for estimating and testing interactions for markedly non-normal covariates. © The Author(s) 2013.

Parameter Recovery for the 1-P HGLLM with Non-Normally Distributed Level-3 Residuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kara, Yusuf; Kamata, Akihito

2017-01-01

A multilevel Rasch model using a hierarchical generalized linear model is one approach to multilevel item response theory (IRT) modeling and is referred to as a one-parameter hierarchical generalized linear logistic model (1-P HGLLM). Although it has the flexibility to model nested structure of data with covariates, the model assumes the normality…

Prestressing force monitoring method for a box girder through distributed long-gauge FBG sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi-Zhi; Wu, Gang; Xing, Tuo; Feng, De-Cheng

2018-01-01

Monitoring prestressing forces is essential for prestressed concrete box girder bridges. However, the current monitoring methods used for prestressing force were not applicable for a box girder neither because of the sensor’s setup being constrained or shear lag effect not being properly considered. Through combining with the previous analysis model of shear lag effect in the box girder, this paper proposed an indirect monitoring method for on-site determination of prestressing force in a concrete box girder utilizing the distributed long-gauge fiber Bragg grating sensor. The performance of this method was initially verified using numerical simulation for three different distribution forms of prestressing tendons. Then, an experiment involving two concrete box girders was conducted to study the feasibility of this method under different prestressing levels preliminarily. The results of both numerical simulation and lab experiment validated this method’s practicability in a box girder.

On the mass function of stars growing in a flocculent medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maschberger, Th.

2013-12-01

Stars form in regions of very inhomogeneous densities and may have chaotic orbital motions. This leads to a time variation of the accretion rate, which will spread the masses over some mass range. We investigate the mass distribution functions that arise from fluctuating accretion rates in non-linear accretion, ṁ ∝ mα. The distribution functions evolve in time and develop a power-law tail attached to a lognormal body, like in numerical simulations of star formation. Small fluctuations may be modelled by a Gaussian and develop a power-law tail ∝ m-α at the high-mass side for α > 1 and at the low-mass side for α < 1. Large fluctuations require that their distribution is strictly positive, for example, lognormal. For positive fluctuations the mass distribution function develops the power-law tail always at the high-mass hand side, independent of α larger or smaller than unity. Furthermore, we discuss Bondi-Hoyle accretion in a supersonically turbulent medium, the range of parameters for which non-linear stochastic growth could shape the stellar initial mass function, as well as the effects of a distribution of initial masses and growth times.

Impacts of ambient temperature on the burden of bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China.

PubMed

Cheng, J; Xie, M Y; Zhao, K F; Wu, J J; Xu, Z W; Song, J; Zhao, D S; Li, K S; Wang, X; Yang, H H; Wen, L Y; Su, H; Tong, S L

2017-06-01

Bacillary dysentery continues to be a major health issue in developing countries and ambient temperature is a possible environmental determinant. However, evidence about the risk of bacillary dysentery attributable to ambient temperature under climate change scenarios is scarce. We examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China during 2006-2012 and projected its shifting pattern under climate change scenarios using a distributed lag non-linear model. The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the temperature rise above a threshold (18·4 °C), and the temperature effects appeared to be acute. The proportion of bacillary dysentery attributable to hot temperatures was 18·74% (95 empirical confidence interval (eCI): 8·36-27·44%). Apparent difference of AF was observed between urban and rural areas, with AF varying from 26·87% (95% eCI 16·21-36·68%) in urban area to -1·90% (95 eCI -25·03 to 16·05%) in rural area. Under the climate change scenarios alone (1-4 °C rise), the AF from extreme hot temperatures (>31·2 °C) would rise greatly accompanied by the relatively stable AF from moderate hot temperatures (18·4-31·2 °C). If climate change proceeds, urban area may be more likely to suffer from rapidly increasing burden of disease from extreme hot temperatures in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Detecting PM2.5's Correlations between Neighboring Cities Using a Time-Lagged Cross-Correlation Coefficient.

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Wang, Lin; Chen, Yuming

2017-08-31

In order to investigate the time-dependent cross-correlations of fine particulate (PM2.5) series among neighboring cities in Northern China, in this paper, we propose a new cross-correlation coefficient, the time-lagged q-L dependent height crosscorrelation coefficient (denoted by p q (τ, L)), which incorporates the time-lag factor and the fluctuation amplitude information into the analogous height cross-correlation analysis coefficient. Numerical tests are performed to illustrate that the newly proposed coefficient ρ q (τ, L) can be used to detect cross-correlations between two series with time lags and to identify different range of fluctuations at which two series possess cross-correlations. Applying the new coefficient to analyze the time-dependent cross-correlations of PM2.5 series between Beijing and the three neighboring cities of Tianjin, Zhangjiakou, and Baoding, we find that time lags between the PM2.5 series with larger fluctuations are longer than those between PM2.5 series withsmaller fluctuations. Our analysis also shows that cross-correlations between the PM2.5 series of two neighboring cities are significant and the time lags between two PM2.5 series of neighboring cities are significantly non-zero. These findings providenew scientific support on the view that air pollution in neighboring cities can affect one another not simultaneously but with a time lag.

Correlation of breast cancer incidence with the number of motor vehicles and consumption of gasoline in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Boyoung; Shin, Aesun; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee; Ha, Eunhee; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Hyun Jeong; Park, Kyung Hwa; Jang, Sungmi; Moon, Byung-In; Ha, Mina

2014-01-01

While several reproductive and lifestyle-related factors are already well-known as established risk factors for breast cancer, environmental factors have attracted attention only recently. The objective of the current study was to assess the association between the breast cancer incidences in females, the mortality rate and the number of motor vehicles on the one side and the consumption of gasoline which could work as a major source of air pollution at the other side. The breast cancer incidences and the mortality trends were compared with various indices of westernization like dietary patterns or industrialization with 10 years lag of time. Geographical variations with 10, 15 and 20 years lag of time were assessed between the breast cancer incidence in 2010 and the number of motor vehicles as well as the consumption of gasoline. The upward trend of motor vehicle numbers proved to be comparable to those of breast cancer incidence and mortality. However, the consumption of gasoline started to decrease since the mid-1990s. The geographic distribution of motor vehicle numbers and gasoline consumption in 1990 is in a positive correlation with the breast cancer incidence rates in 2010 and the 20-year lag time (R2 0.379 with the number of motor vehicles and 0.345 with consumption of gasoline). In a linear relationship between the breast cancer incidences in 2010 and the log transformed number of motor vehicles, the log transformed consumption of gasoline in 2000 also showed a positive relationship (R2 0.367 with the number of motor vehicles and 0.329 with consumption of gasoline). The results of the current study indicate that there may be a positive relation between the number of vehicles, gasoline consumption and the incidence of breast cancer from the aspects of long-term trends and geographical variation.

Supermassive Black Holes with High Accretion Rates in Active Galactic Nuclei. IX. 10 New Observations of Reverberation Mapping and Shortened Hβ Lags

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Pu; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang; Wang, Kai; Huang, Ying-Ke; Zhang, Yue; Lu, Kai-Xing; Hu, Chen; Li, Yan-Rong; Bai, Jin-Ming; Bian, Wei-Hao; Yuan, Ye-Fei; Ho, Luis C.; Wang, Jian-Min; SEAMBH collaboration

2018-03-01

As one paper in a series reporting on a large reverberation mapping campaign of super-Eddington accreting massive black holes (SEAMBHs) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs), we present the results of 10 SEAMBHs monitored spectroscopically during 2015–2017. Six of them are observed for the first time, and have generally higher 5100 Å luminosities than the SEAMBHs monitored in our campaign from 2012 to 2015; the remaining four are repeat observations to check if their previous lags change. Similar to the previous SEAMBHs, the Hβ time lags of the newly observed objects are shorter than the values predicted by the canonical R Hβ –L 5100 relation of sub-Eddington AGNs, by factors of ∼2–6, depending on the accretion rate. The four previously observed objects have lags consistent with previous measurements. We provide linear regressions for the R Hβ –L 5100 relation, solely for the SEAMBH sample and for low-accretion AGNs. We find that the relative strength of Fe II and the profile of the Hβ emission line can be used as proxies of accretion rate, showing that the shortening of Hβ lags depends on accretion rates. The recent SDSS-RM discovery of shortened Hβ lags in AGNs with low accretion rates provides compelling evidence for retrograde accretion onto the black hole. These evidences show that the canonical R Hβ –L 5100 relation holds only in AGNs with moderate accretion rates. At low accretion rates, it should be revised to include the effects of black hole spin, whereas the accretion rate itself becomes a key factor in the regime of high accretion rates.

The Cardiopulmonary Effects of Ambient Air Pollution and Mechanistic Pathways: A Comparative Hierarchical Pathway Analysis

PubMed Central

Thomas, Duncan C.; Zhang, Junfeng; Kipen, Howard M.; Rich, David Q.; Zhu, Tong; Huang, Wei; Hu, Min; Wang, Guangfa; Wang, Yuedan; Zhu, Ping; Lu, Shou-En; Ohman-Strickland, Pamela; Diehl, Scott R.; Eckel, Sandrah P.

2014-01-01

Previous studies have investigated the associations between exposure to ambient air pollution and biomarkers of physiological pathways, yet little has been done on the comparison across biomarkers of different pathways to establish the temporal pattern of biological response. In the current study, we aim to compare the relative temporal patterns in responses of candidate pathways to different pollutants. Four biomarkers of pulmonary inflammation and oxidative stress, five biomarkers of systemic inflammation and oxidative stress, ten parameters of autonomic function, and three biomarkers of hemostasis were repeatedly measured in 125 young adults, along with daily concentrations of ambient CO, PM2.5, NO2, SO2, EC, OC, and sulfate, before, during, and after the Beijing Olympics. We used a two-stage modeling approach, including Stage I models to estimate the association between each biomarker and pollutant over each of 7 lags, and Stage II mixed-effect models to describe temporal patterns in the associations when grouping the biomarkers into the four physiological pathways. Our results show that candidate pathway groupings of biomarkers explained a significant amount of variation in the associations for each pollutant, and the temporal patterns of the biomarker-pollutant-lag associations varied across candidate pathways (p<0.0001) and were not linear (from lag 0 to lag 3: p = 0.0629, from lag 3 to lag 6: p = 0.0005). These findings suggest that, among this healthy young adult population, the pulmonary inflammation and oxidative stress pathway is the first to respond to ambient air pollution exposure (within 24 hours) and the hemostasis pathway responds gradually over a 2–3 day period. The initial pulmonary response may contribute to the more gradual systemic changes that likely ultimately involve the cardiovascular system. PMID:25502951

Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding

PubMed Central

Bellamy, Paul E.; Hill, Ross A.; Ferns, Peter N.

2016-01-01

Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships. PMID:27182711

Simultaneous pharmacodynamic analysis of the lag and bactericidal phases exhibited by beta-lactams against Escherichia coli.

PubMed Central

Li, R C

1996-01-01

Antibiotic-bacterium interactions are complex in nature. In many cases, bacterial killing does not commence immediately after the addition of an antibiotic, and a lag period is observed. Antibiotic permeation and/or the intermediate steps that exist between antibiotic-receptor binding and expression of cell death are two major possible causes for such lag period. This study was primarily designed to determine the relationship, if any, between antibiotic concentrations and the lag periods by a modeling approach. Short-term time-kill studies were conducted for amoxicillin, ampicillin, penicillin-G, oxacillin, and dicloxacillin against Escherichia coli. In conjunction with the use of a saturable rate model to describe the concentration-dependent killing process, a first-order induction (initiation) rate constant was used to characterize the delay in bacterial killing during the lag period. For all of the beta-lactams tested, parameters describing the bactericidal effect suggest that amoxicillin and ampicillin were much more potent than oxacillin and dicloxacillin. The induction rate constant estimates for both ampicillin and amoxicillin were found to relate linearly to concentrations. Nevertheless, these induction rate constant estimates were lower for penicillin-G, oxacillin, and dicloxacillin and increased nonlinearly with concentrations until an apparent plateau was observed. These findings support the hypothesis that the permeation process is potentially a rate-limiting step for the rapid bactericidal beta-lactams such as ampicillin and amoxicillin. However, as suggested by previous observations of the various morphological changes induced by beta-lactams, the contribution of the steps following antibiotic-receptor complex formation to the lag period might be significant for the less bactericidal antibiotics such as oxacillin and dicloxacillin. Findings from the present modeling approach can potentially be used to guide future bench experimentation. PMID:8891135

Some estimation formulae for continuous time-invariant linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bierman, G. J.; Sidhu, G. S.

1975-01-01

In this brief paper we examine a Riccati equation decomposition due to Reid and Lainiotis and apply the result to the continuous time-invariant linear filtering problem. Exploitation of the time-invariant structure leads to integration-free covariance recursions which are of use in covariance analyses and in filter implementations. A super-linearly convergent iterative solution to the algebraic Riccati equation (ARE) is developed. The resulting algorithm, arranged in a square-root form, is thought to be numerically stable and competitive with other ARE solution methods. Certain covariance relations that are relevant to the fixed-point and fixed-lag smoothing problems are also discussed.

Changing Climate Drives Lagging and Accelerating Glacier Responses and Accelerating Adjustments of the Hazard Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargel, Jeffrey

2013-04-01

It is virtually universally recognized among climate and cryospheric scientists that climate and greenhouse gas abundances are closely correlated. Disagreements mainly pertain to the fundamental triggers for large fluctuations in climate and greenhouse gases during the pre-industrial era, and exactly how coupling is achieved amongst the dynamic solid Earth, the Sun, orbital and rotational dynamics, greenhouse gas abundances, and climate. Also unsettled is the climate sensitivity defined as the absolute linkage between the magnitude of climate warming/cooling and greenhouse gas increase/decrease. Important questions concern lagging responses (either greenhouse gases lagging climate fluctuations, or vice versa) and the causes of the lags. In terms of glacier and ice sheet responses to climate change, there also exist several processes causing lagging responses to climate change inputs. The simplest parameterization giving a glacier's lagging response time, τ, is that given by Jóhanneson et al. (1989), modified slightly here as τ = b/h, where b is a measure of ablation rate and h is a measure of glacier thickness. The exact definitions of τ, b, and h are subject to some interpretive license, but for a back-of-the-envelope approximation, we may take b as the magnitude of the mean ablation rate over the whole ablation area, and h as the mean glacier thickness in the glacier ablation zone. τ remains a bit ambiguous but may be considered as an exponential time scale for a decreasing response of b to a climatic step change. For some climate changes, b and h can be taken as the values prior to the climate change, but for large climatic shifts, this parameterization must be iterated. The actual response of a glacier at any time is the sum of exponentially decreasing responses from past changes. (Several aspects of glacier dynamics cause various glacier responses to differ from this idealized glacier-response theory.) Some important details relating to the retreat (or advances) of glaciers due to historic and future anthropogenic and longer term climate change relate to a changing glacier hazard regime. Climate change is connected to changes in the geographic distribution and magnitudes of potentially hazardous glacier lakes, large rock and ice avalanches, ice-dammed rivers, and surges. I shall consider these changes in hazard environment in relation to response-time theory and dynamical divergences from idealized response-time theory. Case histories of certain hazard-prone regions, including developments in fast-response-type glaciers and slow-response glaciers and ice sheets will also be discussed. In short, there will be a strong tendency of the hazard regimes of glacierized regions to shift far more rapidly in the 21st century than they did in the 20th century. The magnitude of the shifts will be more dramatic than any simple linear scaling to climate warming would suggest; this is largely because, due to lagging responses, glaciers are still trying to catch up to a new equilibrium for 20th century climate, while climate change remains a moving target that will drive accelerating glacier responses (including responses in hazard environments) in most glacierized regions.