Local load-sharing fiber bundle model in higher dimensions.

PubMed

Sinha, Santanu; Kjellstadli, Jonas T; Hansen, Alex

2015-08-01

We consider the local load-sharing fiber bundle model in one to five dimensions. Depending on the breaking threshold distribution of the fibers, there is a transition where the fracture process becomes localized. In the localized phase, the model behaves as the invasion percolation model. The difference between the local load-sharing fiber bundle model and the equal load-sharing fiber bundle model vanishes with increasing dimensionality with the characteristics of a power law.

Modeling the Economic Impacts of Large Deployments on Local Communities

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LARGE DEPLOYMENTS ON LOCAL COMMUNITIES THESIS Aaron L... MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LARGE DEPLOYMENTS ON LOCAL COMMUNITIES THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Systems Engineering and...APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT/GCA/ENV/08-D01 MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LARGE DEPLOYMENTS ON LOCAL

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, Brady J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J.; Sauer, John R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage.

PubMed

Mattsson, Brady J; Zipkin, Elise F; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J; Sauer, John R; Royle, J Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

Explaining Local-Scale Species Distributions: Relative Contributions of Spatial Autocorrelation and Landscape Heterogeneity for an Avian Assemblage

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Brady J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J.; Sauer, John R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition. PMID:23393564

Analysis of supply chain management of shallots in Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, M. C.; Supriana, T.

2018-02-01

Supply chain is important for business. One of supply chain that needs to be studied is the shallots supply chain. Medan have high demand while the supply of shallots is limited. This study aims to analyze the flow of shallots supply chain distribution in Medan. The method used was survey by using questionnaires to shallots producers, collecting traders, distributors, traders as well as government involved in shallots supply chain. Descriptive analysis was used to explain the shallots supply chain distribution flow. The results showed that there are two shallots supply chain model in Medan that was local shallots model and imported shallots model. Local shallots model could be distinguished based on three producer area, those were models of Medan Marelan, Samosir, and Simalungun. Medan Marelan and Simalungun models have seven supply chains, while the Samosir Model has eight supply chains. This condition indicates that the local shallots supply chain management in Medan was not efficient because of the length of the distribution channel. Supply chain imported shallots was more efficient because it had a shorter distribution flow with five supply chains.

Distributed bearing fault diagnosis based on vibration analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolenc, Boštjan; Boškoski, Pavle; Juričić, Đani

2016-01-01

Distributed bearing faults appear under various circumstances, for example due to electroerosion or the progression of localized faults. Bearings with distributed faults tend to generate more complex vibration patterns than those with localized faults. Despite the frequent occurrence of such faults, their diagnosis has attracted limited attention. This paper examines a method for the diagnosis of distributed bearing faults employing vibration analysis. The vibrational patterns generated are modeled by incorporating the geometrical imperfections of the bearing components. Comparing envelope spectra of vibration signals shows that one can distinguish between localized and distributed faults. Furthermore, a diagnostic procedure for the detection of distributed faults is proposed. This is evaluated on several bearings with naturally born distributed faults, which are compared with fault-free bearings and bearings with localized faults. It is shown experimentally that features extracted from vibrations in fault-free, localized and distributed fault conditions form clearly separable clusters, thus enabling diagnosis.

The General Evolving Model for Energy Supply-Demand Network with Local-World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mei; Han, Dun; Li, Dandan; Fang, Cuicui

2013-10-01

In this paper, two general bipartite network evolving models for energy supply-demand network with local-world are proposed. The node weight distribution, the "shifting coefficient" and the scaling exponent of two different kinds of nodes are presented by the mean-field theory. The numerical results of the node weight distribution and the edge weight distribution are also investigated. The production's shifted power law (SPL) distribution of coal enterprises and the installed capacity's distribution of power plants in the US are obtained from the empirical analysis. Numerical simulations and empirical results are given to verify the theoretical results.

Free-energy-based lattice Boltzmann model for the simulation of multiphase flows with density contrast.

PubMed

Shao, J Y; Shu, C; Huang, H B; Chew, Y T

2014-03-01

A free-energy-based phase-field lattice Boltzmann method is proposed in this work to simulate multiphase flows with density contrast. The present method is to improve the Zheng-Shu-Chew (ZSC) model [Zheng, Shu, and Chew, J. Comput. Phys. 218, 353 (2006)] for correct consideration of density contrast in the momentum equation. The original ZSC model uses the particle distribution function in the lattice Boltzmann equation (LBE) for the mean density and momentum, which cannot properly consider the effect of local density variation in the momentum equation. To correctly consider it, the particle distribution function in the LBE must be for the local density and momentum. However, when the LBE of such distribution function is solved, it will encounter a severe numerical instability. To overcome this difficulty, a transformation, which is similar to the one used in the Lee-Lin (LL) model [Lee and Lin, J. Comput. Phys. 206, 16 (2005)] is introduced in this work to change the particle distribution function for the local density and momentum into that for the mean density and momentum. As a result, the present model still uses the particle distribution function for the mean density and momentum, and in the meantime, considers the effect of local density variation in the LBE as a forcing term. Numerical examples demonstrate that both the present model and the LL model can correctly simulate multiphase flows with density contrast, and the present model has an obvious improvement over the ZSC model in terms of solution accuracy. In terms of computational time, the present model is less efficient than the ZSC model, but is much more efficient than the LL model.

A comparison of non-local electron transport models for laser-plasmas relevant to inertial confinement fusion

DOE PAGES

Sherlock, M.; Brodrick, J. P.; Ridgers, C. P.

2017-08-08

Here, we compare the reduced non-local electron transport model developed to Vlasov-Fokker-Planck simulations. Two new test cases are considered: the propagation of a heat wave through a high density region into a lower density gas, and a one-dimensional hohlraum ablation problem. We find that the reduced model reproduces the peak heat flux well in the ablation region but significantly over-predicts the coronal preheat. The suitability of the reduced model for computing non-local transport effects other than thermal conductivity is considered by comparing the computed distribution function to the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck distribution function. It is shown that even when the reduced modelmore » reproduces the correct heat flux, the distribution function is significantly different to the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck prediction. Two simple modifications are considered which improve agreement between models in the coronal region.« less

An Iterative Local Updating Ensemble Smoother for Estimation and Uncertainty Assessment of Hydrologic Model Parameters With Multimodal Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Lin, Guang; Li, Weixuan; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-03-01

Ensemble smoother (ES) has been widely used in inverse modeling of hydrologic systems. However, for problems where the distribution of model parameters is multimodal, using ES directly would be problematic. One popular solution is to use a clustering algorithm to identify each mode and update the clusters with ES separately. However, this strategy may not be very efficient when the dimension of parameter space is high or the number of modes is large. Alternatively, we propose in this paper a very simple and efficient algorithm, i.e., the iterative local updating ensemble smoother (ILUES), to explore multimodal distributions of model parameters in nonlinear hydrologic systems. The ILUES algorithm works by updating local ensembles of each sample with ES to explore possible multimodal distributions. To achieve satisfactory data matches in nonlinear problems, we adopt an iterative form of ES to assimilate the measurements multiple times. Numerical cases involving nonlinearity and multimodality are tested to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. It is shown that overall the ILUES algorithm can well quantify the parametric uncertainties of complex hydrologic models, no matter whether the multimodal distribution exists.

A Multi Agent-Based Framework for Simulating Household PHEV Distribution and Electric Distribution Network Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cui, Xiaohui; Liu, Cheng; Kim, Hoe Kyoung

2011-01-01

The variation of household attributes such as income, travel distance, age, household member, and education for different residential areas may generate different market penetration rates for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). Residential areas with higher PHEV ownership could increase peak electric demand locally and require utilities to upgrade the electric distribution infrastructure even though the capacity of the regional power grid is under-utilized. Estimating the future PHEV ownership distribution at the residential household level can help us understand the impact of PHEV fleet on power line congestion, transformer overload and other unforeseen problems at the local residential distribution network level.more » It can also help utilities manage the timing of recharging demand to maximize load factors and utilization of existing distribution resources. This paper presents a multi agent-based simulation framework for 1) modeling spatial distribution of PHEV ownership at local residential household level, 2) discovering PHEV hot zones where PHEV ownership may quickly increase in the near future, and 3) estimating the impacts of the increasing PHEV ownership on the local electric distribution network with different charging strategies. In this paper, we use Knox County, TN as a case study to show the simulation results of the agent-based model (ABM) framework. However, the framework can be easily applied to other local areas in the US.« less

Stimulated luminescence emission from localized recombination in randomly distributed defects.

PubMed

Jain, Mayank; Guralnik, Benny; Andersen, Martin Thalbitzer

2012-09-26

We present a new kinetic model describing localized electronic recombination through the excited state of the donor (d) to an acceptor (a) centre in luminescent materials. In contrast to the existing models based on the localized transition model (LTM) of Halperin and Braner (1960 Phys. Rev. 117 408-15) which assumes a fixed d → a tunnelling probability for the entire crystal, our model is based on nearest-neighbour recombination within randomly distributed centres. Such a random distribution can occur through the entire volume or within the defect complexes of the dosimeter, and implies that the tunnelling probability varies with the donor-acceptor (d-a) separation distance. We first develop an 'exact kinetic model' that incorporates this variation in tunnelling probabilities, and evolves both in spatial as well as temporal domains. We then develop a simplified one-dimensional, semi-analytical model that evolves only in the temporal domain. An excellent agreement is observed between thermally and optically stimulated luminescence (TL and OSL) results produced from the two models. In comparison to the first-order kinetic behaviour of the LTM of Halperin and Braner (1960 Phys. Rev. 117 408-15), our model results in a highly asymmetric TL peak; this peak can be understood to derive from a continuum of several first-order TL peaks. Our model also shows an extended power law behaviour for OSL (or prompt luminescence), which is expected from localized recombination mechanisms in materials with random distribution of centres.

A comparison of non-local electron transport models relevant to inertial confinement fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherlock, Mark; Brodrick, Jonathan; Ridgers, Christopher

2017-10-01

We compare the reduced non-local electron transport model developed by Schurtz et al. to Vlasov-Fokker-Planck simulations. Two new test cases are considered: the propagation of a heat wave through a high density region into a lower density gas, and a 1-dimensional hohlraum ablation problem. We find the reduced model reproduces the peak heat flux well in the ablation region but significantly over-predicts the coronal preheat. The suitability of the reduced model for computing non-local transport effects other than thermal conductivity is considered by comparing the computed distribution function to the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck distribution function. It is shown that even when the reduced model reproduces the correct heat flux, the distribution function is significantly different to the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck prediction. Two simple modifications are considered which improve agreement between models in the coronal region. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Comparison of Damage Models for Predicting the Non-Linear Response of Laminates Under Matrix Dominated Loading Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuecker, Clara; Davila, Carlos G.; Rose, Cheryl A.

2010-01-01

Five models for matrix damage in fiber reinforced laminates are evaluated for matrix-dominated loading conditions under plane stress and are compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. The emphasis of this study is on a comparison of the response of embedded plies subjected to a homogeneous stress state. Three of the models are specifically designed for modeling the non-linear response due to distributed matrix cracking under homogeneous loading, and also account for non-linear (shear) behavior prior to the onset of cracking. The remaining two models are localized damage models intended for predicting local failure at stress concentrations. The modeling approaches of distributed vs. localized cracking as well as the different formulations of damage initiation and damage progression are compared and discussed.

Simultaneous treatment of unspecified heteroskedastic model error distribution and mismeasured covariates for restricted moment models.

PubMed

Garcia, Tanya P; Ma, Yanyuan

2017-10-01

We develop consistent and efficient estimation of parameters in general regression models with mismeasured covariates. We assume the model error and covariate distributions are unspecified, and the measurement error distribution is a general parametric distribution with unknown variance-covariance. We construct root- n consistent, asymptotically normal and locally efficient estimators using the semiparametric efficient score. We do not estimate any unknown distribution or model error heteroskedasticity. Instead, we form the estimator under possibly incorrect working distribution models for the model error, error-prone covariate, or both. Empirical results demonstrate robustness to different incorrect working models in homoscedastic and heteroskedastic models with error-prone covariates.

A range-based predictive localization algorithm for WSID networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuan; Chen, Junjie; Li, Gang

2017-11-01

Most studies on localization algorithms are conducted on the sensor networks with densely distributed nodes. However, the non-localizable problems are prone to occur in the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. To solve this problem, a range-based predictive localization algorithm (RPLA) is proposed in this paper for the wireless sensor networks syncretizing the RFID (WSID) networks. The Gaussian mixture model is established to predict the trajectory of a mobile target. Then, the received signal strength indication is used to reduce the residence area of the target location based on the approximate point-in-triangulation test algorithm. In addition, collaborative localization schemes are introduced to locate the target in the non-localizable situations. Simulation results verify that the RPLA achieves accurate localization for the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. The localization accuracy of the RPLA is 48.7% higher than that of the APIT algorithm, 16.8% higher than that of the single Gaussian model-based algorithm and 10.5% higher than that of the Kalman filtering-based algorithm.

Transport lattice models of heat transport in skin with spatially heterogeneous, temperature-dependent perfusion.

PubMed

Gowrishankar, T R; Stewart, Donald A; Martin, Gregory T; Weaver, James C

2004-11-17

Investigation of bioheat transfer problems requires the evaluation of temporal and spatial distributions of temperature. This class of problems has been traditionally addressed using the Pennes bioheat equation. Transport of heat by conduction, and by temperature-dependent, spatially heterogeneous blood perfusion is modeled here using a transport lattice approach. We represent heat transport processes by using a lattice that represents the Pennes bioheat equation in perfused tissues, and diffusion in nonperfused regions. The three layer skin model has a nonperfused viable epidermis, and deeper regions of dermis and subcutaneous tissue with perfusion that is constant or temperature-dependent. Two cases are considered: (1) surface contact heating and (2) spatially distributed heating. The model is relevant to the prediction of the transient and steady state temperature rise for different methods of power deposition within the skin. Accumulated thermal damage is estimated by using an Arrhenius type rate equation at locations where viable tissue temperature exceeds 42 degrees C. Prediction of spatial temperature distributions is also illustrated with a two-dimensional model of skin created from a histological image. The transport lattice approach was validated by comparison with an analytical solution for a slab with homogeneous thermal properties and spatially distributed uniform sink held at constant temperatures at the ends. For typical transcutaneous blood gas sensing conditions the estimated damage is small, even with prolonged skin contact to a 45 degrees C surface. Spatial heterogeneity in skin thermal properties leads to a non-uniform temperature distribution during a 10 GHz electromagnetic field exposure. A realistic two-dimensional model of the skin shows that tissue heterogeneity does not lead to a significant local temperature increase when heated by a hot wire tip. The heat transport system model of the skin was solved by exploiting the mathematical analogy between local thermal models and local electrical (charge transport) models, thereby allowing robust, circuit simulation software to obtain solutions to Kirchhoff's laws for the system model. Transport lattices allow systematic introduction of realistic geometry and spatially heterogeneous heat transport mechanisms. Local representations for both simple, passive functions and more complex local models can be easily and intuitively included into the system model of a tissue.

The Cluster Variation Method: A Primer for Neuroscientists.

PubMed

Maren, Alianna J

2016-09-30

Effective Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) require that the time-varying activation patterns of 2-D neural ensembles be modelled. The cluster variation method (CVM) offers a means for the characterization of 2-D local pattern distributions. This paper provides neuroscientists and BCI researchers with a CVM tutorial that will help them to understand how the CVM statistical thermodynamics formulation can model 2-D pattern distributions expressing structural and functional dynamics in the brain. The premise is that local-in-time free energy minimization works alongside neural connectivity adaptation, supporting the development and stabilization of consistent stimulus-specific responsive activation patterns. The equilibrium distribution of local patterns, or configuration variables , is defined in terms of a single interaction enthalpy parameter ( h ) for the case of an equiprobable distribution of bistate (neural/neural ensemble) units. Thus, either one enthalpy parameter (or two, for the case of non-equiprobable distribution) yields equilibrium configuration variable values. Modeling 2-D neural activation distribution patterns with the representational layer of a computational engine, we can thus correlate variational free energy minimization with specific configuration variable distributions. The CVM triplet configuration variables also map well to the notion of a M = 3 functional motif. This paper addresses the special case of an equiprobable unit distribution, for which an analytic solution can be found.

The Cluster Variation Method: A Primer for Neuroscientists

PubMed Central

Maren, Alianna J.

2016-01-01

Effective Brain–Computer Interfaces (BCIs) require that the time-varying activation patterns of 2-D neural ensembles be modelled. The cluster variation method (CVM) offers a means for the characterization of 2-D local pattern distributions. This paper provides neuroscientists and BCI researchers with a CVM tutorial that will help them to understand how the CVM statistical thermodynamics formulation can model 2-D pattern distributions expressing structural and functional dynamics in the brain. The premise is that local-in-time free energy minimization works alongside neural connectivity adaptation, supporting the development and stabilization of consistent stimulus-specific responsive activation patterns. The equilibrium distribution of local patterns, or configuration variables, is defined in terms of a single interaction enthalpy parameter (h) for the case of an equiprobable distribution of bistate (neural/neural ensemble) units. Thus, either one enthalpy parameter (or two, for the case of non-equiprobable distribution) yields equilibrium configuration variable values. Modeling 2-D neural activation distribution patterns with the representational layer of a computational engine, we can thus correlate variational free energy minimization with specific configuration variable distributions. The CVM triplet configuration variables also map well to the notion of a M = 3 functional motif. This paper addresses the special case of an equiprobable unit distribution, for which an analytic solution can be found. PMID:27706022

Sequential updating of multimodal hydrogeologic parameter fields using localization and clustering techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Alexander Y.; Morris, Alan P.; Mohanty, Sitakanta

2009-07-01

Estimated parameter distributions in groundwater models may contain significant uncertainties because of data insufficiency. Therefore, adaptive uncertainty reduction strategies are needed to continuously improve model accuracy by fusing new observations. In recent years, various ensemble Kalman filters have been introduced as viable tools for updating high-dimensional model parameters. However, their usefulness is largely limited by the inherent assumption of Gaussian error statistics. Hydraulic conductivity distributions in alluvial aquifers, for example, are usually non-Gaussian as a result of complex depositional and diagenetic processes. In this study, we combine an ensemble Kalman filter with grid-based localization and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) clustering techniques for updating high-dimensional, multimodal parameter distributions via dynamic data assimilation. We introduce innovative strategies (e.g., block updating and dimension reduction) to effectively reduce the computational costs associated with these modified ensemble Kalman filter schemes. The developed data assimilation schemes are demonstrated numerically for identifying the multimodal heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity distributions in a binary facies alluvial aquifer. Our results show that localization and GMM clustering are very promising techniques for assimilating high-dimensional, multimodal parameter distributions, and they outperform the corresponding global ensemble Kalman filter analysis scheme in all scenarios considered.

Regional Distribution Models with Lack of Proximate Predictors: Africanized Honeybees Expanding North

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Esaias, Wayne E.; Ma, Peter L. A.; Morisette, Jeffery T.; Nickeson, Jaime E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nightingale, Joanne M.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Tan, Bin

2014-01-01

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species-environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

Regional distribution models with lack of proximate predictors: Africanized honeybees expanding north

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Esaias, Wayne E.; Ma, Peter L.A.; Morisette, Jeffery T.; Nickeson, Jaime E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nightingale, Joanne M.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Tan, Bin

2014-01-01

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species–environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

Distributed model predictive control for constrained nonlinear systems with decoupled local dynamics.

PubMed

Zhao, Meng; Ding, Baocang

2015-03-01

This paper considers the distributed model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear large-scale systems with dynamically decoupled subsystems. According to the coupled state in the overall cost function of centralized MPC, the neighbors are confirmed and fixed for each subsystem, and the overall objective function is disassembled into each local optimization. In order to guarantee the closed-loop stability of distributed MPC algorithm, the overall compatibility constraint for centralized MPC algorithm is decomposed into each local controller. The communication between each subsystem and its neighbors is relatively low, only the current states before optimization and the optimized input variables after optimization are being transferred. For each local controller, the quasi-infinite horizon MPC algorithm is adopted, and the global closed-loop system is proven to be exponentially stable. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Accuracy of GBM GRB Localizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Michael Stephen; Connaughton, V.; Meegan, C.; Hurley, K.

2010-03-01

We report an study of the accuracy of GBM GRB localizations, analyzing three types of localizations: those produced automatically by the GBM Flight Software on board GBM, those produced automatically with ground software in near real time, and localizations produced with human guidance. The two types of automatic locations are distributed in near real-time via GCN Notices; the human-guided locations are distributed on timescale of many minutes or hours using GCN Circulars. This work uses a Bayesian analysis that models the distribution of the GBM total location error by comparing GBM locations to more accurate locations obtained with other instruments. Reference locations are obtained from Swift, Super-AGILE, the LAT, and with the IPN. We model the GBM total location errors as having systematic errors in addition to the statistical errors and use the Bayesian analysis to constrain the systematic errors.

New distributed fusion filtering algorithm based on covariances over sensor networks with random packet dropouts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero-Águila, R.; Hermoso-Carazo, A.; Linares-Pérez, J.

2017-07-01

This paper studies the distributed fusion estimation problem from multisensor measured outputs perturbed by correlated noises and uncertainties modelled by random parameter matrices. Each sensor transmits its outputs to a local processor over a packet-erasure channel and, consequently, random losses may occur during transmission. Different white sequences of Bernoulli variables are introduced to model the transmission losses. For the estimation, each lost output is replaced by its estimator based on the information received previously, and only the covariances of the processes involved are used, without requiring the signal evolution model. First, a recursive algorithm for the local least-squares filters is derived by using an innovation approach. Then, the cross-correlation matrices between any two local filters is obtained. Finally, the distributed fusion filter weighted by matrices is obtained from the local filters by applying the least-squares criterion. The performance of the estimators and the influence of both sensor uncertainties and transmission losses on the estimation accuracy are analysed in a numerical example.

Modelling Framework and the Quantitative Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources in Future Distribution Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xue; Sandels, Claes; Zhu, Kun; Nordström, Lars

2013-08-01

There has been a large body of statements claiming that the large-scale deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) could eventually reshape the future distribution grid operation in numerous ways. Thus, it is necessary to introduce a framework to measure to what extent the power system operation will be changed by various parameters of DERs. This article proposed a modelling framework for an overview analysis on the correlation between DERs. Furthermore, to validate the framework, the authors described the reference models of different categories of DERs with their unique characteristics, comprising distributed generation, active demand and electric vehicles. Subsequently, quantitative analysis was made on the basis of the current and envisioned DER deployment scenarios proposed for Sweden. Simulations are performed in two typical distribution network models for four seasons. The simulation results show that in general the DER deployment brings in the possibilities to reduce the power losses and voltage drops by compensating power from the local generation and optimizing the local load profiles.

IBS for non-gaussian distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedotov, A.; Sidorin, A.O.; Smirnov, A.V.

In many situations distribution can significantly deviate from Gaussian which requires accurate treatment of IBS. Our original interest in this problem was motivated by the need to have an accurate description of beam evolution due to IBS while distribution is strongly affected by the external electron cooling force. A variety of models with various degrees of approximation were developed and implemented in BETACOOL in the past to address this topic. A more complete treatment based on the friction coefficient and full 3-D diffusion tensor was introduced in BETACOOL at the end of 2007 under the name 'local IBS model'. Suchmore » a model allowed us calculation of IBS for an arbitrary beam distribution. The numerical benchmarking of this local IBS algorithm and its comparison with other models was reported before. In this paper, after briefly describing the model and its limitations, they present its comparison with available experimental data.« less

An Event-Based Approach to Distributed Diagnosis of Continuous Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhurry, Indranil; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon

2010-01-01

Distributed fault diagnosis solutions are becoming necessary due to the complexity of modern engineering systems, and the advent of smart sensors and computing elements. This paper presents a novel event-based approach for distributed diagnosis of abrupt parametric faults in continuous systems, based on a qualitative abstraction of measurement deviations from the nominal behavior. We systematically derive dynamic fault signatures expressed as event-based fault models. We develop a distributed diagnoser design algorithm that uses these models for designing local event-based diagnosers based on global diagnosability analysis. The local diagnosers each generate globally correct diagnosis results locally, without a centralized coordinator, and by communicating a minimal number of measurements between themselves. The proposed approach is applied to a multi-tank system, and results demonstrate a marked improvement in scalability compared to a centralized approach.

A Statistical Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Improving Long-Range Forecasting in Pakistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

Impact of global warming on monsoon variability in Pakistan. J. Anim. Pl. Sci., 21, no. 1, 107–110. Gillies, S., T. Murphree, and D. Meyer, 2012...are generated by multiple regression models that relate globally distributed oceanic and atmospheric predictors to local predictands. The...generated by multiple regression models that relate globally distributed oceanic and atmospheric predictors to local predictands. The predictands are

On the Vertical Distribution of Local and Remote Sources of Water for Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.

2001-01-01

The vertical distribution of local and remote sources of water for precipitation and total column water over the United States are evaluated in a general circulation model simulation. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM) includes passive constituent tracers to determine the geographical sources of the water in the column. Results show that the local percentage of precipitable water and local percentage of precipitation can be very different. The transport of water vapor from remote oceanic sources at mid and upper levels is important to the total water in the column over the central United States, while the access of locally evaporated water in convective precipitation processes is important to the local precipitation ratio. This result resembles the conceptual formulation of the convective parameterization. However, the formulations of simple models of precipitation recycling include the assumption that the ratio of the local water in the column is equal to the ratio of the local precipitation. The present results demonstrate the uncertainty in that assumption, as locally evaporated water is more concentrated near the surface.

Dynamical heterogeneities and mechanical non-linearities: Modeling the onset of plasticity in polymer in the glass transition.

PubMed

Masurel, R J; Gelineau, P; Lequeux, F; Cantournet, S; Montes, H

2017-12-27

In this paper we focus on the role of dynamical heterogeneities on the non-linear response of polymers in the glass transition domain. We start from a simple coarse-grained model that assumes a random distribution of the initial local relaxation times and that quantitatively describes the linear viscoelasticity of a polymer in the glass transition regime. We extend this model to non-linear mechanics assuming a local Eyring stress dependence of the relaxation times. Implementing the model in a finite element mechanics code, we derive the mechanical properties and the local mechanical fields at the beginning of the non-linear regime. The model predicts a narrowing of distribution of relaxation times and the storage of a part of the mechanical energy --internal stress-- transferred to the material during stretching in this temperature range. We show that the stress field is not spatially correlated under and after loading and follows a Gaussian distribution. In addition the strain field exhibits shear bands, but the strain distribution is narrow. Hence, most of the mechanical quantities can be calculated analytically, in a very good approximation, with the simple assumption that the strain rate is constant.

Distribution of polarization-entangled photonpairs produced via spontaneous parametric down-conversion within a local-area fiber network: theoretical model and experiment.

PubMed

Lim, Han Chuen; Yoshizawa, Akio; Tsuchida, Hidemi; Kikuchi, Kazuro

2008-09-15

We present a theoretical model for the distribution of polarization-entangled photon-pairs produced via spontaneous parametric down-conversion within a local-area fiber network. This model allows an entanglement distributor who plays the role of a service provider to determine the photon-pair generation rate giving highest two-photon interference fringe visibility for any pair of users, when given user-specific parameters. Usefulness of this model is illustrated in an example and confirmed in an experiment, where polarization-entangled photon-pairs are distributed over 82 km and 132 km of dispersion-managed optical fiber. Experimentally observed visibilities and entanglement fidelities are in good agreement with theoretically predicted values.

Indiana Distributive Education Competency Based Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Rod; And Others

This Indiana distributive education competency-based curriculum model is designed to help teachers and local administrators plan and conduct a comprehensive marketing and distributive education program. It is divided into three levels--one level for each year of a three-year program. The competencies common to a variety of marketing and…

The relative roles of environment, history and local dispersal in controlling the distributions of common tree and shrub species in a tropical forest landscape, Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Svenning, J.-C.; Engelbrecht, B.M.J.; Kinner, D.A.; Kursar, T.A.; Stallard, R.F.; Wright, S.J.

2006-01-01

We used regression models and information-theoretic model selection to assess the relative importance of environment, local dispersal and historical contingency as controls of the distributions of 26 common plant species in tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We censused eighty-eight 0.09-ha plots scattered across the landscape. Environmental control, local dispersal and historical contingency were represented by environmental variables (soil moisture, slope, soil type, distance to shore, old-forest presence), a spatial autoregressive parameter (??), and four spatial trend variables, respectively. We built regression models, representing all combinations of the three hypotheses, for each species. The probability that the best model included the environmental variables, spatial trend variables and ?? averaged 33%, 64% and 50% across the study species, respectively. The environmental variables, spatial trend variables, ??, and a simple intercept model received the strongest support for 4, 15, 5 and 2 species, respectively. Comparing the model results to information on species traits showed that species with strong spatial trends produced few and heavy diaspores, while species with strong soil moisture relationships were particularly drought-sensitive. In conclusion, history and local dispersal appeared to be the dominant controls of the distributions of common plant species on BCI. Copyright ?? 2006 Cambridge University Press.

A Group Theoretic Approach to Metaheuristic Local Search for Partitioning Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-01

Tabu Search. Mathematical and Computer Modeling 39: 599-616. 107 Daskin , M.S., E. Stern. 1981. A Hierarchical Objective Set Covering Model for EMS... A Group Theoretic Approach to Metaheuristic Local Search for Partitioning Problems by Gary W. Kinney Jr., B.G.S., M.S. Dissertation Presented to the...DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A Approved for Public Release Distribution Unlimited The University of Texas at Austin May, 2005 20050504 002 REPORT

A laser-induced heat flux technique for convective heat transfer measurements in high speed flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porro, A. R.; Keith, T. G., Jr.; Hingst, W. R.

1991-01-01

A technique is developed to measure the local convective heat transfer coefficient on a model surface in a supersonic flow field. The technique uses a laser to apply a discrete local heat flux at the model test surface, and an infrared camera system determines the local temperature distribution due to the heating. From this temperature distribution and an analysis of the heating process, a local convective heat transfer coefficient is determined. The technique was used to measure the local surface convective heat transfer coefficient distribution on a flat plate at nominal Mach numbers of 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0. The flat plate boundary layer initially was laminar and became transitional in the measurement region. The experimentally determined convective heat transfer coefficients were generally higher than the theoretical predictions for flat plate laminar boundary layers. However, the results indicate that this nonintrusive optical measurement technique has the potential to measure surface convective heat transfer coefficients in high speed flow fields.

A laser-induced heat flux technique for convective heat transfer measurements in high speed flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porro, A. R.; Keith, T. G., Jr.; Hingst, W. R.

1991-01-01

A technique is developed to measure the local convective heat transfer coefficient on a model surface in a supersonic flow field. The technique uses a laser to apply a discrete local heat flux at the model test surface, and an infrared camera system determines the local temperature distribution due to the heating. From this temperature distribution and an analysis of the heating process, a local convective heat transfer coefficient is determined. The technique was used to measure the local surface convective heat transfer coefficient distribution on a flat plate at nominal Mach numbers of 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0. The flat plate boundary layer initially was laminar and became transitional in the measurement region. The experimentally determined convective heat transfer coefficients were generally higher than the theoretical predictions for flat plate laminar boundary layers. However, the results indicate that this nonintrusive optical measurement technique has the potential to measure surface convective heat transfer coefficients in high-speed flowfields.

A density distribution algorithm for bone incorporating local orthotropy, modal analysis and theories of cellular solids.

PubMed

Impelluso, Thomas J

2003-06-01

An algorithm for bone remodeling is presented which allows for both a redistribution of density and a continuous change of principal material directions for the orthotropic material properties of bone. It employs a modal analysis to add density for growth and a local effective strain based analysis to redistribute density. General re-distribution functions are presented. The model utilizes theories of cellular solids to relate density and strength. The code predicts the same general density distributions and local orthotropy as observed in reality.

A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys).

PubMed

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change.

A GIS Model Predicting Potential Distributions of a Lineage: A Test Case on Hermit Spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys)

PubMed Central

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Background Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Conclusions Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change. PMID:22238692

Distribution of joint local and total size and of extension for avalanches in the Brownian force model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorme, Mathieu; Le Doussal, Pierre; Wiese, Kay Jörg

2016-05-01

The Brownian force model is a mean-field model for local velocities during avalanches in elastic interfaces of internal space dimension d , driven in a random medium. It is exactly solvable via a nonlinear differential equation. We study avalanches following a kick, i.e., a step in the driving force. We first recall the calculation of the distributions of the global size (total swept area) and of the local jump size for an arbitrary kick amplitude. We extend this calculation to the joint density of local and global sizes within a single avalanche in the limit of an infinitesimal kick. When the interface is driven by a single point, we find new exponents τ0=5 /3 and τ =7 /4 , depending on whether the force or the displacement is imposed. We show that the extension of a "single avalanche" along one internal direction (i.e., the total length in d =1 ) is finite, and we calculate its distribution following either a local or a global kick. In all cases, it exhibits a divergence P (ℓ ) ˜ℓ-3 at small ℓ . Most of our results are tested in a numerical simulation in dimension d =1 .

Local structural behavior of PbZr0.5Ti0.5O3 during electric field application via in situ pair distribution function study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Changhao; Hou, Dong; Chung, Ching-Chang; Yu, Yingying; Liu, Wenfeng; Li, Shengtao; Jones, Jacob L.

2017-11-01

The local structural behavior of PbZr0.5Ti0.5O3 (PZT 50/50) ceramics during application of an electric field was investigated using pair distribution function (PDF) analysis. In situ synchrotron total scattering was conducted, and the PDFs were calculated from the Fourier transform of the total scattering data. The PDF refinement of the zero-field data suggests a local-structure model with [001] Ti-displacement and negligible Zr-displacement. The directional PDFs at different field amplitudes indicate the bond-length distribution of the nearest Pb-B (B = Zr/Ti) pair changes significantly with the field. The radial distribution functions (RDFs) of a model for polarization rotation were calculated. The calculated and the experimental RDFs are consistent. This result suggests the changes in Pb-B bond-length distribution could be dominantly caused by polarization rotation. Peak fitting of the experimental RDFs was also conducted. The peak position trends with increasing field are mostly in agreement with the calculation result of the polarization rotation model. The area ratio of the peaks in the experimental RDFs also changed with field amplitude, indicating that Zr atoms have a detectable displacement driven by the electric field. Our study provides an experimental observation of the behaviors of PZT 50/50 under field at a local scale which supports the polarization rotation mechanism.

Transport lattice models of heat transport in skin with spatially heterogeneous, temperature-dependent perfusion

PubMed Central

Gowrishankar, TR; Stewart, Donald A; Martin, Gregory T; Weaver, James C

2004-01-01

Background Investigation of bioheat transfer problems requires the evaluation of temporal and spatial distributions of temperature. This class of problems has been traditionally addressed using the Pennes bioheat equation. Transport of heat by conduction, and by temperature-dependent, spatially heterogeneous blood perfusion is modeled here using a transport lattice approach. Methods We represent heat transport processes by using a lattice that represents the Pennes bioheat equation in perfused tissues, and diffusion in nonperfused regions. The three layer skin model has a nonperfused viable epidermis, and deeper regions of dermis and subcutaneous tissue with perfusion that is constant or temperature-dependent. Two cases are considered: (1) surface contact heating and (2) spatially distributed heating. The model is relevant to the prediction of the transient and steady state temperature rise for different methods of power deposition within the skin. Accumulated thermal damage is estimated by using an Arrhenius type rate equation at locations where viable tissue temperature exceeds 42°C. Prediction of spatial temperature distributions is also illustrated with a two-dimensional model of skin created from a histological image. Results The transport lattice approach was validated by comparison with an analytical solution for a slab with homogeneous thermal properties and spatially distributed uniform sink held at constant temperatures at the ends. For typical transcutaneous blood gas sensing conditions the estimated damage is small, even with prolonged skin contact to a 45°C surface. Spatial heterogeneity in skin thermal properties leads to a non-uniform temperature distribution during a 10 GHz electromagnetic field exposure. A realistic two-dimensional model of the skin shows that tissue heterogeneity does not lead to a significant local temperature increase when heated by a hot wire tip. Conclusions The heat transport system model of the skin was solved by exploiting the mathematical analogy between local thermal models and local electrical (charge transport) models, thereby allowing robust, circuit simulation software to obtain solutions to Kirchhoff's laws for the system model. Transport lattices allow systematic introduction of realistic geometry and spatially heterogeneous heat transport mechanisms. Local representations for both simple, passive functions and more complex local models can be easily and intuitively included into the system model of a tissue. PMID:15548324

Projected Irrigation Requirement Under Climate Change in Korean Peninsula by Apply Global Hydrologic Model to Local Scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Understanding spatial distribution of irrigation requirement is critically important for agricultural water management. However, many studies considering future agricultural water management in Korea assessed irrigation requirement on watershed or administrative district scale, but have not accounted the spatial distribution. Lumped hydrologic model has typically used in Korea for simulating watershed scale irrigation requirement, while distribution hydrologic model can simulate the spatial distribution grid by grid. To overcome this shortcoming, here we applied a grid base global hydrologic model (H08) into local scale to estimate spatial distribution under future irrigation requirement of Korean Peninsula. Korea is one of the world's most densely populated countries, with also high produce and demand of rice which requires higher soil moisture than other crops. Although, most of the precipitation concentrate in particular season and disagree with crop growth season. This precipitation character makes management of agricultural water which is approximately 60% of total water usage critical issue in Korea. Furthermore, under future climate change, the precipitation predicted to be more concentrated and necessary need change of future water management plan. In order to apply global hydrological model into local scale, we selected appropriate major crops under social and local climate condition in Korea to estimate cropping area and yield, and revised the cropping area map more accurately. As a result, future irrigation requirement estimation varies under each projection, however, slightly decreased in most case. The simulation reveals, evapotranspiration increase slightly while effective precipitation also increase to balance the irrigation requirement. This finding suggest practical guideline to decision makers for further agricultural water management plan including future development of water supply plan to resolve water scarcity.

Onset of anomalous diffusion from local motion rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Nigris, Sarah; Carletti, Timoteo; Lambiotte, Renaud

2017-02-01

Anomalous diffusion processes, in particular superdiffusive ones, are known to be efficient strategies for searching and navigation in animals and also in human mobility. One way to create such regimes are Lévy flights, where the walkers are allowed to perform jumps, the "flights," that can eventually be very long as their length distribution is asymptotically power-law distributed. In our work, we present a model in which walkers are allowed to perform, on a one-dimensional lattice, "cascades" of n unitary steps instead of one jump of a randomly generated length, as in the Lévy case, where n is drawn from a cascade distribution pn. We show that this local mechanism may give rise to superdiffusion or normal diffusion when pn is distributed as a power law. We also introduce waiting times that are power-law distributed as well and therefore the probability distribution scaling is steered by the two local distributions power-law exponents. As a perspective, our approach may engender a possible generalization of anomalous diffusion in context where distances are difficult to define, as in the case of complex networks, and also provide an interesting model for diffusion in temporal networks.

Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria - Dutch Hoverflies as a case study.

PubMed

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Polce, Chiara; van Loon, E Emiel; Raes, Niels; Reemer, Menno; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

2013-01-01

Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM algorithm is not straightforward as these are plentiful and can be applied in many different ways. SDM are used mainly to gain insight in 1) overall species distributions, 2) their past-present-future probability of occurrence and/or 3) to understand their ecological niche limits (also referred to as ecological niche modelling). The fact that these three aims may require different models and outputs is, however, rarely considered and has not been evaluated consistently. Here we use data from a systematically sampled set of species occurrences to specifically test the performance of Species Distribution Models across several commonly used algorithms. Species range in distribution patterns from rare to common and from local to widespread. We compare overall model fit (representing species distribution), the accuracy of the predictions at multiple spatial scales, and the consistency in selection of environmental correlations all across multiple modelling runs. As expected, the choice of modelling algorithm determines model outcome. However, model quality depends not only on the algorithm, but also on the measure of model fit used and the scale at which it is used. Although model fit was higher for the consensus approach and Maxent, Maxent and GAM models were more consistent in estimating local occurrence, while RF and GBM showed higher consistency in environmental variables selection. Model outcomes diverged more for narrowly distributed species than for widespread species. We suggest that matching study aims with modelling approach is essential in Species Distribution Models, and provide suggestions how to do this for different modelling aims and species' data characteristics (i.e. sample size, spatial distribution).

Biophysical modeling of fragment length distributions of DNA plasmids after X and heavy-ion irradiation analyzed by atomic force microscopy.

PubMed

Elsässer, Thilo; Brons, Stephan; Psonka, Katarzyna; Scholz, Michael; Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa; Taucher-Scholz, Gisela

2008-06-01

The investigation of fragment length distributions of plasmid DNA gives insight into the influence of localized energy distribution on the induction of DNA damage, particularly the clustering of double-strand breaks. We present an approach that determines the fragment length distributions of plasmid DNA after heavy-ion irradiation by using the Local Effect Model. We find a good agreement of our simulations with experimental fragment distributions derived from atomic force microscopy (AFM) studies by including experimental constraints typical for AFM. Our calculations reveal that by comparing the fragmentation in terms of fluence, we can uniquely distinguish the effect of different radiation qualities. For very high-LET irradiation using nickel or uranium ions, no difference between their fragment distributions can be expected for the same dose level. However, for carbon ions with an intermediate LET, the fragmentation pattern differs from the distribution for very high-LET particles. The results of the model calculations can be used to determine the optimal experimental parameters for a demonstration of the influence of track structure on primary radiation damage. Additionally, we compare the results of our model for two different plasmid geometries.

Category representations in the brain are both discretely localized and widely distributed.

PubMed

Shehzad, Zarrar; McCarthy, Gregory

2018-06-01

Whether category information is discretely localized or represented widely in the brain remains a contentious issue. Initial functional MRI studies supported the localizationist perspective that category information is represented in discrete brain regions. More recent fMRI studies using machine learning pattern classification techniques provide evidence for widespread distributed representations. However, these latter studies have not typically accounted for shared information. Here, we find strong support for distributed representations when brain regions are considered separately. However, localized representations are revealed by using analytical methods that separate unique from shared information among brain regions. The distributed nature of shared information and the localized nature of unique information suggest that brain connectivity may encourage spreading of information but category-specific computations are carried out in distinct domain-specific regions. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Whether visual category information is localized in unique domain-specific brain regions or distributed in many domain-general brain regions is hotly contested. We resolve this debate by using multivariate analyses to parse functional MRI signals from different brain regions into unique and shared variance. Our findings support elements of both models and show information is initially localized and then shared among other regions leading to distributed representations being observed.

Temporal complexity in emission from Anderson localized lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Randhir; Balasubrahmaniyam, M.; Alee, K. Shadak; Mujumdar, Sushil

2017-12-01

Anderson localization lasers exploit resonant cavities formed due to structural disorder. The inherent randomness in the structure of these cavities realizes a probability distribution in all cavity parameters such as quality factors, mode volumes, mode structures, and so on, implying resultant statistical fluctuations in the temporal behavior. Here we provide direct experimental measurements of temporal width distributions of Anderson localization lasing pulses in intrinsically and extrinsically disordered coupled-microresonator arrays. We first illustrate signature exponential decays in the spatial intensity distributions of the lasing modes that quantify their localized character, and then measure the temporal width distributions of the pulsed emission over several configurations. We observe a dependence of temporal widths on the disorder strength, wherein the widths show a single-peaked, left-skewed distribution in extrinsic disorder and a dual-peaked distribution in intrinsic disorder. We propose a model based on coupled rate equations for an emitter and an Anderson cavity with a random mode structure, which gives excellent quantitative and qualitative agreement with the experimental observations. The experimental and theoretical analyses bring to the fore the temporal complexity in Anderson-localization-based lasing systems.

Using local clinical educators and shared resources to deliver simulation training activities across rural and remote South Australia and south-west Victoria: A distributed collaborative model.

PubMed

Masters, Stacey C; Elliott, Sandi; Boyd, Sarah; Dunbar, James A

2017-10-01

There is a lack of access to simulation-based education (SBE) for professional entry students (PES) and health professionals at rural and remote locations. A descriptive study. Health and education facilities in regional South Australia and south-west Victoria. Number of training recipients who participated in SBE; geographical distribution and locations where SBE was delivered; number of rural clinical educators providing SBE. A distributed model to deliver SBE in rural and remote locations in collaboration with local health and community services, education providers and the general public. Face-to-face meetings with health services and education providers identified gaps in locally delivered clinical skills training and availability of simulation resources. Clinical leadership, professional development and community of practice strategies were implemented to enhance capacity of rural clinical educators to deliver SBE. The number of SBE participants and training hours delivered exceeded targets. The distributed model enabled access to regular, localised training for PES and health professionals, minimising travel and staff backfill costs incurred when attending regional centres. The skills acquired by local educators remain in rural areas to support future training. The distributed collaborative model substantially increased access to clinical skills training for PES and health professionals in rural and remote locations. Developing the teaching skills of rural clinicians optimised the use of simulation resources. Consequently, health services were able to provide students with flexible and realistic learning opportunities in clinical procedures, communication techniques and teamwork skills. © 2017 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Locally Dependent Latent Trait Model and the Dutch Identity Revisited.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ip, Edward H.

2002-01-01

Proposes a class of locally dependent latent trait models for responses to psychological and educational tests. Focuses on models based on a family of conditional distributions, or kernel, that describes joint multiple item responses as a function of student latent trait, not assuming conditional independence. Also proposes an EM algorithm for…

Distributed Optimization for a Class of Nonlinear Multiagent Systems With Disturbance Rejection.

PubMed

Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Ji, Haibo

2016-07-01

The paper studies the distributed optimization problem for a class of nonlinear multiagent systems in the presence of external disturbances. To solve the problem, we need to achieve the optimal multiagent consensus based on local cost function information and neighboring information and meanwhile to reject local disturbance signals modeled by an exogenous system. With convex analysis and the internal model approach, we propose a distributed optimization controller for heterogeneous and nonlinear agents in the form of continuous-time minimum-phase systems with unity relative degree. We prove that the proposed design can solve the exact optimization problem with rejecting disturbances.

Self-organized dynamics in local load-sharing fiber bundle models.

PubMed

Biswas, Soumyajyoti; Chakrabarti, Bikas K

2013-10-01

We study the dynamics of a local load-sharing fiber bundle model in two dimensions under an external load (which increases with time at a fixed slow rate) applied at a single point. Due to the local load-sharing nature, the redistributed load remains localized along the boundary of the broken patch. The system then goes to a self-organized state with a stationary average value of load per fiber along the (increasing) boundary of the broken patch (damaged region) and a scale-free distribution of avalanche sizes and other related quantities are observed. In particular, when the load redistribution is only among nearest surviving fiber(s), the numerical estimates of the exponent values are comparable with those of the Manna model. When the load redistribution is uniform along the patch boundary, the model shows a simple mean-field limit of this self-organizing critical behavior, for which we give analytical estimates of the saturation load per fiber values and avalanche size distribution exponent. These are in good agreement with numerical simulation results.

Source localization of rhythmic ictal EEG activity: a study of diagnostic accuracy following STARD criteria.

PubMed

Beniczky, Sándor; Lantz, Göran; Rosenzweig, Ivana; Åkeson, Per; Pedersen, Birthe; Pinborg, Lars H; Ziebell, Morten; Jespersen, Bo; Fuglsang-Frederiksen, Anders

2013-10-01

Although precise identification of the seizure-onset zone is an essential element of presurgical evaluation, source localization of ictal electroencephalography (EEG) signals has received little attention. The aim of our study was to estimate the accuracy of source localization of rhythmic ictal EEG activity using a distributed source model. Source localization of rhythmic ictal scalp EEG activity was performed in 42 consecutive cases fulfilling inclusion criteria. The study was designed according to recommendations for studies on diagnostic accuracy (STARD). The initial ictal EEG signals were selected using a standardized method, based on frequency analysis and voltage distribution of the ictal activity. A distributed source model-local autoregressive average (LAURA)-was used for the source localization. Sensitivity, specificity, and measurement of agreement (kappa) were determined based on the reference standard-the consensus conclusion of the multidisciplinary epilepsy surgery team. Predictive values were calculated from the surgical outcome of the operated patients. To estimate the clinical value of the ictal source analysis, we compared the likelihood ratios of concordant and discordant results. Source localization was performed blinded to the clinical data, and before the surgical decision. Reference standard was available for 33 patients. The ictal source localization had a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 76%. The mean measurement of agreement (kappa) was 0.61, corresponding to substantial agreement (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.84). Twenty patients underwent resective surgery. The positive predictive value (PPV) for seizure freedom was 92% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 43%. The likelihood ratio was nine times higher for the concordant results, as compared with the discordant ones. Source localization of rhythmic ictal activity using a distributed source model (LAURA) for the ictal EEG signals selected with a standardized method is feasible in clinical practice and has a good diagnostic accuracy. Our findings encourage clinical neurophysiologists assessing ictal EEGs to include this method in their armamentarium. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2013 International League Against Epilepsy.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sherlock, M.; Brodrick, J. P.; Ridgers, C. P.

Here, we compare the reduced non-local electron transport model developed to Vlasov-Fokker-Planck simulations. Two new test cases are considered: the propagation of a heat wave through a high density region into a lower density gas, and a one-dimensional hohlraum ablation problem. We find that the reduced model reproduces the peak heat flux well in the ablation region but significantly over-predicts the coronal preheat. The suitability of the reduced model for computing non-local transport effects other than thermal conductivity is considered by comparing the computed distribution function to the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck distribution function. It is shown that even when the reduced modelmore » reproduces the correct heat flux, the distribution function is significantly different to the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck prediction. Two simple modifications are considered which improve agreement between models in the coronal region.« less

Development of a laser-induced heat flux technique for measurement of convective heat transfer coefficients in a supersonic flowfield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porro, A. Robert; Keith, Theo G., Jr.; Hingst, Warren R.; Chriss, Randall M.; Seablom, Kirk D.

1991-01-01

A technique is developed to measure the local convective heat transfer coefficient on a model surface in a supersonic flow field. The technique uses a laser to apply a discrete local heat flux at the model test surface, and an infrared camera system determines the local temperature distribution due to heating. From this temperature distribution and an analysis of the heating process, a local convective heat transfer coefficient is determined. The technique was used to measure the load surface convective heat transfer coefficient distribution on a flat plate at nominal Mach numbers of 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0. The flat plate boundary layer initially was laminar and became transitional in the measurement region. The experimental results agreed reasonably well with theoretical predictions of convective heat transfer of flat plate laminar boundary layers. The results indicate that this non-intrusive optical measurement technique has the potential to obtain high quality surface convective heat transfer measurements in high speed flowfields.

Modeling the Test-Retest Statistics of a Localization Experiment in the Full Horizontal Plane.

PubMed

Morsnowski, André; Maune, Steffen

2016-10-01

Two approaches to model the test-retest statistics of a localization experiment basing on Gaussian distribution and on surrogate data are introduced. Their efficiency is investigated using different measures describing directional hearing ability. A localization experiment in the full horizontal plane is a challenging task for hearing impaired patients. In clinical routine, we use this experiment to evaluate the progress of our cochlear implant (CI) recipients. Listening and time effort limit the reproducibility. The localization experiment consists of a 12 loudspeaker circle, placed in an anechoic room, a "camera silens". In darkness, HSM sentences are presented at 65 dB pseudo-erratically from all 12 directions with five repetitions. This experiment is modeled by a set of Gaussian distributions with different standard deviations added to a perfect estimator, as well as by surrogate data. Five repetitions per direction are used to produce surrogate data distributions for the sensation directions. To investigate the statistics, we retrospectively use the data of 33 CI patients with 92 pairs of test-retest-measurements from the same day. The first model does not take inversions into account, (i.e., permutations of the direction from back to front and vice versa are not considered), although they are common for hearing impaired persons particularly in the rear hemisphere. The second model considers these inversions but does not work with all measures. The introduced models successfully describe test-retest statistics of directional hearing. However, since their applications on the investigated measures perform differently no general recommendation can be provided. The presented test-retest statistics enable pair test comparisons for localization experiments.

Factors affecting summer distributions of Bering Sea forage fish species: Assessing competing hypotheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker-Stetter, Sandra; Urmy, Samuel; Horne, John; Eisner, Lisa; Farley, Edward

2016-12-01

Hypotheses on the factors affecting forage fish species distributions are often proposed but rarely evaluated using a comprehensive suite of indices. Using 24 predictor indices, we compared competing hypotheses and calculated average models for the distributions of capelin, age-0 Pacific cod, and age-0 pollock in the eastern Bering Sea from 2006 to 2010. Distribution was described using a two stage modeling approach: probability of occurrence ("presence") and density when fish were present. Both local (varying by location and year) and annual (uniform in space but varying by year) indices were evaluated, the latter accounting for the possibility that distributions were random but that overall presence or densities changed with annual conditions. One regional index, distance to the location of preflexion larvae earlier in the year, was evaluated for age-0 pollock. Capelin distributions were best predicted by local indices such as bottom depth, temperature, and salinity. Annual climate (May sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice extent anomaly) and wind (June wind speed cubed) indices were often important for age-0 Pacific cod in addition to local indices (temperature and depth). Surface, midwater, and water column age-0 pollock distributions were best described by a combination of local (depth, temperature, salinity, zooplankton) and annual (May SST, sea ice anomaly, June wind speed cubed) indices. Our results corroborated some of those in previous distribution studies, but suggested that presence and density may also be influenced by other factors. Even though there were common environmental factors that influenced all species' distributions, it is not possible to generalize conditions for forage fish as a group.

Travel determinants and multi-scale transferability of national activity patterns to local populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henson, Kriste M; Gou; ias, Konstadinos G

The ability to transfer national travel patterns to a local population is of interest when attempting to model megaregions or areas that exceed metropolitan planning organization (MPO) boundaries. At the core of this research are questions about the connection between travel behavior and land use, urban form, and accessibility. As a part of this process, a group of land use variables have been identified to define activity and travel patterns for individuals and households. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) participants are divided into categories comprised of a set of latent cluster models representing persons, travel, and land use.more » These are compared to two sets of cluster models constructed for two local travel surveys. Comparison of means statistical tests are used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups residing in localities with similar land uses. The results show that the NHTS and the local surveys share mean population activity and travel characteristics. However, these similarities mask behavioral heterogeneity that are shown when distributions of activity and travel behavior are examined. Therefore, data from a national household travel survey cannot be used to model local population travel characteristics if the goal to model the actual distributions and not mean travel behavior characteristics.« less

Measurement and dynamics of the spatial distribution of an electron localized at a metal-dielectric interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezel, Ilya; Gaffney, Kelly J.; Garrett-Roe, Sean; Liu, Simon H.; Miller, André D.; Szymanski, Paul; Harris, Charles B.

2004-01-01

The ability of time- and angle-resolved two-photon photoemission to estimate the size distribution of electron localization in the plane of a metal-adsorbate interface is discussed. It is shown that the width of angular distribution of the photoelectric current is inversely proportional to the electron localization size within the most common approximations in the description of image potential states. The localization of the n=1 image potential state for two monolayers of butyronitrile on Ag(111) is used as an example. For the delocalized n=1 state, the shape of the signal amplitude as a function of momentum parallel to the surface changes rapidly with time, indicating efficient intraband relaxation on a 100 fs time scale. For the localized state, little change was observed. The latter is related to the constant size distribution of electron localization, which is estimated to be a Gaussian with a 15±4 Å full width at half maximum in the plane of the interface. A simple model was used to study the effect of a weak localization potential on the overall width of the angular distribution of the photoemitted electrons, which exhibited little sensitivity to the details of the potential. This substantiates the validity of the localization size estimate.

Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

2009-01-01

The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Hierarchical mechanism of development of wealth and structure for a premodern local society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsuo, Miki Y.

2011-06-01

We propose a hierarchical model of social development composed of two associated hierarchies, each of which describes economic and noneconomic activities in society, respectively. The model is designed to explain the development of wealth distribution and social structure over 50 years in a premodern Japanese local society. Data analysis shows that the wealth distribution has a well-known universal power-law tail throughout the observed period, while the Pareto index gradually decreases with time. We further show that the noneconomic social properties, such as the household number, average family size, and number of collaterals in a household, of the local society, also have decreasing or increasing trends throughout the observed period. We show that the hierarchical model consistently demonstrates the correlations of these economic and noneconomic properties.

Optical Coherence Tomography Noise Reduction Using Anisotropic Local Bivariate Gaussian Mixture Prior in 3D Complex Wavelet Domain.

PubMed

Rabbani, Hossein; Sonka, Milan; Abramoff, Michael D

2013-01-01

In this paper, MMSE estimator is employed for noise-free 3D OCT data recovery in 3D complex wavelet domain. Since the proposed distribution for noise-free data plays a key role in the performance of MMSE estimator, a priori distribution for the pdf of noise-free 3D complex wavelet coefficients is proposed which is able to model the main statistical properties of wavelets. We model the coefficients with a mixture of two bivariate Gaussian pdfs with local parameters which are able to capture the heavy-tailed property and inter- and intrascale dependencies of coefficients. In addition, based on the special structure of OCT images, we use an anisotropic windowing procedure for local parameters estimation that results in visual quality improvement. On this base, several OCT despeckling algorithms are obtained based on using Gaussian/two-sided Rayleigh noise distribution and homomorphic/nonhomomorphic model. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm, we use 156 selected ROIs from 650 × 512 × 128 OCT dataset in the presence of wet AMD pathology. Our simulations show that the best MMSE estimator using local bivariate mixture prior is for the nonhomomorphic model in the presence of Gaussian noise which results in an improvement of 7.8 ± 1.7 in CNR.

Geostatistical Modeling of Sediment Abundance in a Heterogeneous Basalt Aquifer at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welhan, John A.; Farabaugh, Renee L.; Merrick, Melissa J.; Anderson, Steven R.

2007-01-01

The spatial distribution of sediment in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer was evaluated and modeled to improve the parameterization of hydraulic conductivity (K) for a subregional-scale ground-water flow model being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The aquifer is hosted within a layered series of permeable basalts within which intercalated beds of fine-grained sediment constitute local confining units. These sediments have K values as much as six orders of magnitude lower than the most permeable basalt, and previous flow-model calibrations have shown that hydraulic conductivity is sensitive to the proportion of intercalated sediment. Stratigraphic data in the form of sediment thicknesses from 333 boreholes in and around the Idaho National Laboratory were evaluated as grouped subsets of lithologic units (composite units) corresponding to their relative time-stratigraphic position. The results indicate that median sediment abundances of the stratigraphic units below the water table are statistically invariant (stationary) in a spatial sense and provide evidence of stationarity across geologic time, as well. Based on these results, the borehole data were kriged as two-dimensional spatial data sets representing the sediment content of the layers that discretize the ground-water flow model in the uppermost 300 feet of the aquifer. Multiple indicator kriging (mIK) was used to model the geographic distribution of median sediment abundance within each layer by defining the local cumulative frequency distribution (CFD) of sediment via indicator variograms defined at multiple thresholds. The mIK approach is superior to ordinary kriging because it provides a statistically best estimate of sediment abundance (the local median) drawn from the distribution of local borehole data, independent of any assumption of normality. A methodology is proposed for delineating and constraining the assignment of hydraulic conductivity zones for parameter estimation, based on the locally estimated CFDs and relative kriging uncertainty. A kriging-based methodology improves the spatial resolution of hydraulic property zones that can be considered during parameter estimation and should improve calibration performance and sensitivity by more accurately reflecting the nuances of sediment distribution within the aquifer.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling

PubMed Central

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-01-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km2 to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere. PMID:22686347

Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model.

PubMed

Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie

2011-01-01

If species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. This study assessed the ability of Maxent, an SDM reported to be appropriate for modeling rare species, to rank habitat suitability at a local scale for four edaphic endemic rare plants of gabbroic soils in El Dorado County, California, and examined the effects of grain size, spatial extent, and fine-grain environmental predictors on local-scale model accuracy. Models were developed using species occurrence data mapped on public lands and were evaluated using an independent data set of presence and absence locations on surrounding lands, mimicking a typical conservation-planning scenario that prioritizes potential habitat on unsurveyed lands surrounding known occurrences. Maxent produced models that were successful at discriminating between suitable and unsuitable habitat at the local scale for all four species, and predicted habitat suitability values were proportional to likelihood of occurrence or population abundance for three of four species. Unfortunately, models with the best discrimination (i.e., AUC) were not always the most useful for ranking habitat suitability. The use of independent test data showed metrics that were valuable for evaluating which variables and model choices (e.g., grain, extent) to use in guiding habitat prioritization for conservation of these species. A goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether habitat suitability values ranked habitat suitability on a continuous scale. If they did not, a minimum acceptable error predicted area criterion was used to determine the threshold for classifying habitat as suitable or unsuitable. I found a trade-off between model extent and the use of fine-grain environmental variables: goodness of fit was improved at larger extents, and fine-grain environmental variables improved local-scale accuracy, but fine-grain variables were not available at large extents. No single model met all habitat prioritization criteria, and the best models were overlaid to identify consensus areas of high suitability. Although the four species modeled here co-occur and are treated together for conservation planning, model accuracy and predicted suitable areas varied among species.

Using spatial mark-recapture for conservation monitoring of grizzly bear populations in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2018-03-26

One of the challenges in conservation is determining patterns and responses in population density and distribution as it relates to habitat and changes in anthropogenic activities. We applied spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) methods, combined with density surface modelling from five grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) management areas (BMAs) in Alberta, Canada, to assess SECR methods and to explore factors influencing bear distribution. Here we used models of grizzly bear habitat and mortality risk to test local density associations using density surface modelling. Results demonstrated BMA-specific factors influenced density, as well as the effects of habitat and topography on detections and movements of bears. Estimates from SECR were similar to those from closed population models and telemetry data, but with similar or higher levels of precision. Habitat was most associated with areas of higher bear density in the north, whereas mortality risk was most associated (negatively) with density of bears in the south. Comparisons of the distribution of mortality risk and habitat revealed differences by BMA that in turn influenced local abundance of bears. Combining SECR methods with density surface modelling increases the resolution of mark-recapture methods by directly inferring the effect of spatial factors on regulating local densities of animals.

Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhelavskaya, I. S.; Shprits, Y.; Spasojevic, M.

2017-12-01

We present a new empirical model for reconstructing the global dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution based only on solar wind data and geomagnetic indices. Utilizing the density database obtained using the NURD (Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination) algorithm for the period of October 1, 2012 - July 1, 2016, in conjunction with solar wind data and geomagnetic indices, we develop a neural network model that is capable of globally reconstructing the dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution for 2 ≤ L ≤ 6 and all local times. We validate and test the model by measuring its performance on independent datasets withheld from the training set and by comparing the model predicted global evolution with global images of He+ distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere from the IMAGE Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) instrument. We identify the parameters that best quantify the plasmasphere dynamics by training and comparing multiple neural networks with different combinations of input parameters (geomagnetic indices, solar wind data, and different durations of their time history). We demonstrate results of both local and global plasma density reconstruction. This study illustrates how global dynamics can be reconstructed from local in-situ observations by using machine learning techniques.

Chaos-assisted tunneling in the presence of Anderson localization.

PubMed

Doggen, Elmer V H; Georgeot, Bertrand; Lemarié, Gabriel

2017-10-01

Tunneling between two classically disconnected regular regions can be strongly affected by the presence of a chaotic sea in between. This phenomenon, known as chaos-assisted tunneling, gives rise to large fluctuations of the tunneling rate. Here we study chaos-assisted tunneling in the presence of Anderson localization effects in the chaotic sea. Our results show that the standard tunneling rate distribution is strongly modified by localization, going from the Cauchy distribution in the ergodic regime to a log-normal distribution in the strongly localized case, for both a deterministic and a disordered model. We develop a single-parameter scaling description which accurately describes the numerical data. Several possible experimental implementations using cold atoms, photonic lattices, or microwave billiards are discussed.

Local-Area-Network Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Jim; Jordan, Joe; Grant, Terry

1990-01-01

Local Area Network Extensible Simulator (LANES) computer program provides method for simulating performance of high-speed local-area-network (LAN) technology. Developed as design and analysis software tool for networking computers on board proposed Space Station. Load, network, link, and physical layers of layered network architecture all modeled. Mathematically models according to different lower-layer protocols: Fiber Distributed Data Interface (FDDI) and Star*Bus. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Experimental characterization and microstructure linked modeling of mechanical behavior of ultra-thin aluminum foils used in packaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabourot, Laurent; Charleux, Ludovic; Balland, Pascale; Sène, Ndèye Awa; Andreasson, Eskil

2018-05-01

This paper is based on the hypothesis that introducing distribution of mechanical properties is beneficial for modeling all kinds of mechanical behavior, even of ordinary metallic materials. To bring proof of its admissibility, it has to be first shown that modeling based on this assertion is able to efficiently describe standard mechanical behavior of materials. Searching for typical study case, it has been assessed that at a low scale, yield stresses could be strongly distributed in ultrathin aluminum foils used in packaging industry, offering opportunities to identifying their distribution and showing its role on the mechanical properties. Considering initially reduced modeling allow to establish a valuable connection between the hardening curve and the distribution of local yield stresses. This serves for finding initial value of distribution parameters in a more sophisticated identification procedure. With finally limited number of representative classes of local yield stresses, concretely 3 is enough, it is shown that a 3D finite element simulation involving limited numbers of elements returns realistic behavior of an ultrathin aluminum foil exerted to tensile test, in reference to experimental results. This gives way to large possibilities in modeling in order to give back complex experimental evidence.

Estimation of Local Bone Loads for the Volume of Interest.

PubMed

Kim, Jung Jin; Kim, Youkyung; Jang, In Gwun

2016-07-01

Computational bone remodeling simulations have recently received significant attention with the aid of state-of-the-art high-resolution imaging modalities. They have been performed using localized finite element (FE) models rather than full FE models due to the excessive computational costs of full FE models. However, these localized bone remodeling simulations remain to be investigated in more depth. In particular, applying simplified loading conditions (e.g., uniform and unidirectional loads) to localized FE models have a severe limitation in a reliable subject-specific assessment. In order to effectively determine the physiological local bone loads for the volume of interest (VOI), this paper proposes a novel method of estimating the local loads when the global musculoskeletal loads are given. The proposed method is verified for the three VOI in a proximal femur in terms of force equilibrium, displacement field, and strain energy density (SED) distribution. The effect of the global load deviation on the local load estimation is also investigated by perturbing a hip joint contact force (HCF) in the femoral head. Deviation in force magnitude exhibits the greatest absolute changes in a SED distribution due to its own greatest deviation, whereas angular deviation perpendicular to a HCF provides the greatest relative change. With further in vivo force measurements and high-resolution clinical imaging modalities, the proposed method will contribute to the development of reliable patient-specific localized FE models, which can provide enhanced computational efficiency for iterative computing processes such as bone remodeling simulations.

Ultrasound shear wave simulation based on nonlinear wave propagation and Wigner-Ville Distribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidari, Pooya Sobhe; Alirezaie, Javad; Tavakkoli, Jahan

2017-03-01

This paper presents a method for modeling and simulation of shear wave generation from a nonlinear Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI) that is considered as a distributed force applied at the focal region of a HIFU transducer radiating in nonlinear regime. The shear wave propagation is simulated by solving the Navier's equation from the distributed nonlinear ARFI as the source of the shear wave. Then, the Wigner-Ville Distribution (WVD) as a time-frequency analysis method is used to detect the shear wave at different local points in the region of interest. The WVD results in an estimation of the shear wave time of arrival, its mean frequency and local attenuation which can be utilized to estimate medium's shear modulus and shear viscosity using the Voigt model.

Collaborative Research and Development (CR&D). Task Order 0061: Modeling Complex Structural Geometry and Process Interaction

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-01

a Titanium and Gamma-TiAl Alloy, JOM, September 2005, 50-54 4 Chapter 1 [ref3] Caton, M.J., Jha, S.K., Larsen, J.M., Rosenberger, A.H., TMS...Figure 5: Notch 3 strain distribution at 900MPa 25 Chapter 3 Figure 6 : Notch 3 inverse pole figure of local microstructure. Figure 7: Notch 4 ...showing the local grain structure Figure 6 : Local strain distribution at 986MPa calculated from 36 Chapter 4 Figure 7: Secondary electron

Universality and depinning models for plastic yield in amorphous materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budrikis, Zoe; Fernandez Castellano, David; Sandfeld, Stefan; Zaiser, Michael; Zapperi, Stefano

Plastic yield in amorphous materials occurs as a result of complex collective dynamics of local reorganizations, which gives rise to rich phenomena such as strain localization, intermittent dynamics and power-law distributed avalanches. While such systems have received considerable attention, both theoretical and experimental, controversy remains over the nature of the yielding transition. We present a new fully-tensorial coarsegrained model in 2D and 3D, and demonstrate that the exponents describing avalanche distributions are universal under a variety of loading conditions, system dimensionality and size, and boundary conditions. Our results show that while depinning-type models in general are apt to describe the system, mean field depinning models are not.

Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant, using a high resolution, local scale, mechanistic approach: challenges and insights.

PubMed

Fennell, Mark; Murphy, James E; Gallagher, Tommy; Osborne, Bruce

2013-04-01

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A Simulation Framework for Battery Cell Impact Safety Modeling Using LS-DYNA

DOE PAGES

Marcicki, James; Zhu, Min; Bartlett, Alexander; ...

2017-02-04

The development process of electrified vehicles can benefit significantly from computer-aided engineering tools that predict themultiphysics response of batteries during abusive events. A coupled structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal model framework has been developed within the commercially available LS-DYNA software. The finite element model leverages a three-dimensional mesh structure that fully resolves the unit cell components. The mechanical solver predicts the distributed stress and strain response with failure thresholds leading to the onset of an internal short circuit. In this implementation, an arbitrary compressive strain criterion is applied locally to each unit cell. A spatially distributed equivalent circuit model providesmore » an empirical representation of the electrochemical responsewith minimal computational complexity.The thermalmodel provides state information to index the electrical model parameters, while simultaneously accepting irreversible and reversible sources of heat generation. The spatially distributed models of the electrical and thermal dynamics allow for the localization of current density and corresponding temperature response. The ability to predict the distributed thermal response of the cell as its stored energy is completely discharged through the short circuit enables an engineering safety assessment. A parametric analysis of an exemplary model is used to demonstrate the simulation capabilities.« less

Skin fluorescence model based on the Monte Carlo technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churmakov, Dmitry Y.; Meglinski, Igor V.; Piletsky, Sergey A.; Greenhalgh, Douglas A.

2003-10-01

The novel Monte Carlo technique of simulation of spatial fluorescence distribution within the human skin is presented. The computational model of skin takes into account spatial distribution of fluorophores following the collagen fibers packing, whereas in epidermis and stratum corneum the distribution of fluorophores assumed to be homogeneous. The results of simulation suggest that distribution of auto-fluorescence is significantly suppressed in the NIR spectral region, while fluorescence of sensor layer embedded in epidermis is localized at the adjusted depth. The model is also able to simulate the skin fluorescence spectra.

Emergence of scale-free close-knit friendship structure in online social networks.

PubMed

Cui, Ai-Xiang; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Tang, Ming; Hui, Pak Ming; Fu, Yan

2012-01-01

Although the structural properties of online social networks have attracted much attention, the properties of the close-knit friendship structures remain an important question. Here, we mainly focus on how these mesoscale structures are affected by the local and global structural properties. Analyzing the data of four large-scale online social networks reveals several common structural properties. It is found that not only the local structures given by the indegree, outdegree, and reciprocal degree distributions follow a similar scaling behavior, the mesoscale structures represented by the distributions of close-knit friendship structures also exhibit a similar scaling law. The degree correlation is very weak over a wide range of the degrees. We propose a simple directed network model that captures the observed properties. The model incorporates two mechanisms: reciprocation and preferential attachment. Through rate equation analysis of our model, the local-scale and mesoscale structural properties are derived. In the local-scale, the same scaling behavior of indegree and outdegree distributions stems from indegree and outdegree of nodes both growing as the same function of the introduction time, and the reciprocal degree distribution also shows the same power-law due to the linear relationship between the reciprocal degree and in/outdegree of nodes. In the mesoscale, the distributions of four closed triples representing close-knit friendship structures are found to exhibit identical power-laws, a behavior attributed to the negligible degree correlations. Intriguingly, all the power-law exponents of the distributions in the local-scale and mesoscale depend only on one global parameter, the mean in/outdegree, while both the mean in/outdegree and the reciprocity together determine the ratio of the reciprocal degree of a node to its in/outdegree. Structural properties of numerical simulated networks are analyzed and compared with each of the four real networks. This work helps understand the interplay between structures on different scales in online social networks.

Emergence of Scale-Free Close-Knit Friendship Structure in Online Social Networks

PubMed Central

Cui, Ai-Xiang; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Tang, Ming; Hui, Pak Ming; Fu, Yan

2012-01-01

Although the structural properties of online social networks have attracted much attention, the properties of the close-knit friendship structures remain an important question. Here, we mainly focus on how these mesoscale structures are affected by the local and global structural properties. Analyzing the data of four large-scale online social networks reveals several common structural properties. It is found that not only the local structures given by the indegree, outdegree, and reciprocal degree distributions follow a similar scaling behavior, the mesoscale structures represented by the distributions of close-knit friendship structures also exhibit a similar scaling law. The degree correlation is very weak over a wide range of the degrees. We propose a simple directed network model that captures the observed properties. The model incorporates two mechanisms: reciprocation and preferential attachment. Through rate equation analysis of our model, the local-scale and mesoscale structural properties are derived. In the local-scale, the same scaling behavior of indegree and outdegree distributions stems from indegree and outdegree of nodes both growing as the same function of the introduction time, and the reciprocal degree distribution also shows the same power-law due to the linear relationship between the reciprocal degree and in/outdegree of nodes. In the mesoscale, the distributions of four closed triples representing close-knit friendship structures are found to exhibit identical power-laws, a behavior attributed to the negligible degree correlations. Intriguingly, all the power-law exponents of the distributions in the local-scale and mesoscale depend only on one global parameter, the mean in/outdegree, while both the mean in/outdegree and the reciprocity together determine the ratio of the reciprocal degree of a node to its in/outdegree. Structural properties of numerical simulated networks are analyzed and compared with each of the four real networks. This work helps understand the interplay between structures on different scales in online social networks. PMID:23272067

Using discharge data to reduce structural deficits in a hydrological model with a Bayesian inference approach and the implications for the prediction of critical source areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, M. P.; Stamm, C.; Schneider, M. K.; Reichert, P.

2011-12-01

A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate the distribution of fast runoff formation as a proxy for critical source areas for herbicide pollution in a small agricultural catchment in Switzerland. We tested to what degree predictions based on prior knowledge without local measurements could be improved upon relying on observed discharge. This learning process consisted of five steps: For the prior prediction (step 1), knowledge of the model parameters was coarse and predictions were fairly uncertain. In the second step, discharge data were used to update the prior parameter distribution. Effects of uncertainty in input data and model structure were accounted for by an autoregressive error model. This step decreased the width of the marginal distributions of parameters describing the lower boundary (percolation rates) but hardly affected soil hydraulic parameters. Residual analysis (step 3) revealed model structure deficits. We modified the model, and in the subsequent Bayesian updating (step 4) the widths of the posterior marginal distributions were reduced for most parameters compared to those of the prior. This incremental procedure led to a strong reduction in the uncertainty of the spatial prediction. Thus, despite only using spatially integrated data (discharge), the spatially distributed effect of the improved model structure can be expected to improve the spatially distributed predictions also. The fifth step consisted of a test with independent spatial data on herbicide losses and revealed ambiguous results. The comparison depended critically on the ratio of event to preevent water that was discharged. This ratio cannot be estimated from hydrological data only. The results demonstrate that the value of local data is strongly dependent on a correct model structure. An iterative procedure of Bayesian updating, model testing, and model modification is suggested.

Mapping Arid Vegetation Species Distributions in the White Mountains, Eastern California, Using AVIRIS, Topography, and Geology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VandeVen, C.; Weiss, S. B.

2001-01-01

Our challenge is to model plant species distributions in complex montane environments using disparate sources of data, including topography, geology, and hyperspectral data. From an ecologist's point of view, species distributions are determined by local environment and disturbance history, while spectral data are 'ancillary.' However, a remote sensor's perspective says that spectral data provide picture of what vegetation is there, topographic and geologic data are ancillary. In order to bridge the gap, all available data should be used to get the best possible prediction of species distributions using complex multivariate techniques implemented on a GIS. Vegetation reflects local climatic and nutrient conditions, both of which can be modeled, allowing predictive mapping of vegetation distributions. Geologic substrate strongly affects chemical, thermal, and physical properties of soils, while climatic conditions are determined by local topography. As elevation increases, precipitation increases and temperature decreases. Aspect, slope, and surrounding topography determine potential insolation, so that south-facing slopes are warmer and north-facing slopes cooler at a given elevation. Topographic position (ridge, slope, canyon, or meadow) and slope angle affect sediment accumulation and soil depth. These factors combine as complex environmental gradients, and underlie many features of plant distributions. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, digital elevation models, digitized geologic maps, and 378 ground control points were used to predictively map species distributions in the central and southern White Mountains, along the western boundary of the Basin and Range province. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) bands were calculated from the visible and near-infrared AVIRIS bands, and combined with digitized geologic maps and topographic variables using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). CCA allows for modeling species 'envelopes' in multidimensional environmental space, which can then be projected across entire landscapes.

Anderson localization for radial tree-like random quantum graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hislop, Peter D.; Post, Olaf

We prove that certain random models associated with radial, tree-like, rooted quantum graphs exhibit Anderson localization at all energies. The two main examples are the random length model (RLM) and the random Kirchhoff model (RKM). In the RLM, the lengths of each generation of edges form a family of independent, identically distributed random variables (iid). For the RKM, the iid random variables are associated with each generation of vertices and moderate the current flow through the vertex. We consider extensions to various families of decorated graphs and prove stability of localization with respect to decoration. In particular, we prove Anderson localization for the random necklace model.

Integration of Heterogenous Digital Surface Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boesch, R.; Ginzler, C.

2011-08-01

The application of extended digital surface models often reveals, that despite an acceptable global accuracy for a given dataset, the local accuracy of the model can vary in a wide range. For high resolution applications which cover the spatial extent of a whole country, this can be a major drawback. Within the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI), two digital surface models are available, one derived from LiDAR point data and the other from aerial images. Automatic photogrammetric image matching with ADS80 aerial infrared images with 25cm and 50cm resolution is used to generate a surface model (ADS-DSM) with 1m resolution covering whole switzerland (approx. 41000 km2). The spatially corresponding LiDAR dataset has a global point density of 0.5 points per m2 and is mainly used in applications as interpolated grid with 2m resolution (LiDAR-DSM). Although both surface models seem to offer a comparable accuracy from a global view, local analysis shows significant differences. Both datasets have been acquired over several years. Concerning LiDAR-DSM, different flight patterns and inconsistent quality control result in a significantly varying point density. The image acquisition of the ADS-DSM is also stretched over several years and the model generation is hampered by clouds, varying illumination and shadow effects. Nevertheless many classification and feature extraction applications requiring high resolution data depend on the local accuracy of the used surface model, therefore precise knowledge of the local data quality is essential. The commercial photogrammetric software NGATE (part of SOCET SET) generates the image based surface model (ADS-DSM) and delivers also a map with figures of merit (FOM) of the matching process for each calculated height pixel. The FOM-map contains matching codes like high slope, excessive shift or low correlation. For the generation of the LiDAR-DSM only first- and last-pulse data was available. Therefore only the point distribution can be used to derive a local accuracy measure. For the calculation of a robust point distribution measure, a constrained triangulation of local points (within an area of 100m2) has been implemented using the Open Source project CGAL. The area of each triangle is a measure for the spatial distribution of raw points in this local area. Combining the FOM-map with the local evaluation of LiDAR points allows an appropriate local accuracy evaluation of both surface models. The currently implemented strategy ("partial replacement") uses the hypothesis, that the ADS-DSM is superior due to its better global accuracy of 1m. If the local analysis of the FOM-map within the 100m2 area shows significant matching errors, the corresponding area of the triangulated LiDAR points is analyzed. If the point density and distribution is sufficient, the LiDAR-DSM will be used in favor of the ADS-DSM at this location. If the local triangulation reflects low point density or the variance of triangle areas exceeds a threshold, the investigated location will be marked as NODATA area. In a future implementation ("anisotropic fusion") an anisotropic inverse distance weighting (IDW) will be used, which merges both surface models in the point data space by using FOM-map and local triangulation to derive a quality weight for each of the interpolation points. The "partial replacement" implementation and the "fusion" prototype for the anisotropic IDW make use of the Open Source projects CGAL (Computational Geometry Algorithms Library), GDAL (Geospatial Data Abstraction Library) and OpenCV (Open Source Computer Vision).

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

1993-01-01

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

1993-04-01

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

A low-altitude mountain range as an important refugium for two narrow endemics in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Robinson, Todd P.; Wardell-Johnson, Grant W.; Yates, Colin J.; Van Niel, Kimberly P.; Byrne, Margaret; Schut, Antonius G. T.

2017-01-01

Background and Aims Low-altitude mountains constitute important centres of diversity in landscapes with little topographic variation, such as the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). They also provide unique climatic and edaphic conditions that may allow them to function as refugia. We investigate whether the Porongurups (altitude 655 m) in the SWAFR will provide a refugium for the endemic Ornduffia calthifolia and O. marchantii under forecast climate change. Methods We used species distribution modelling based on WorldClim climatic data, 30-m elevation data and a 2-m-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) to predict current and future distributions of the Ornduffia species at local and regional scales based on 605 field-based abundance estimates. Future distributions were forecast using RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 projections. To determine whether local edaphic and biotic factors impact these forecasts, we tested whether soil depth and vegetation height were significant predictors of abundance using generalized additive models (GAMs). Key Results Species distribution modelling revealed the importance of elevation and topographic variables at the local scale for determining distributions of both species, which also preferred shadier locations and higher slopes. However, O. calthifolia occurred at higher (cooler) elevations with rugged, concave topography, while O. marchantii occurred in disturbed sites at lower locations with less rugged, convex topography. Under future climates both species are likely to severely contract under the milder RCP2.6 projection (approx. 2 °C of global warming), but are unlikely to persist if warming is more severe (RCP4.5). GAMs showed that soil depth and vegetation height are important predictors of O. calthifolia and O. marchantii distributions, respectively. Conclusions The Porongurups constitute an important refugium for O. calthifolia and O. marchantii, but limits to this capacity may be reached if global warming exceeds 2 °C. This capacity is moderated at local scales by biotic and edaphic factors. PMID:27634576

Solvable Hydrodynamics of Quantum Integrable Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulchandani, Vir B.; Vasseur, Romain; Karrasch, Christoph; Moore, Joel E.

2017-12-01

The conventional theory of hydrodynamics describes the evolution in time of chaotic many-particle systems from local to global equilibrium. In a quantum integrable system, local equilibrium is characterized by a local generalized Gibbs ensemble or equivalently a local distribution of pseudomomenta. We study time evolution from local equilibria in such models by solving a certain kinetic equation, the "Bethe-Boltzmann" equation satisfied by the local pseudomomentum density. Explicit comparison with density matrix renormalization group time evolution of a thermal expansion in the XXZ model shows that hydrodynamical predictions from smooth initial conditions can be remarkably accurate, even for small system sizes. Solutions are also obtained in the Lieb-Liniger model for free expansion into vacuum and collisions between clouds of particles, which model experiments on ultracold one-dimensional Bose gases.

Probability density function of non-reactive solute concentration in heterogeneous porous formations.

PubMed

Bellin, Alberto; Tonina, Daniele

2007-10-30

Available models of solute transport in heterogeneous formations lack in providing complete characterization of the predicted concentration. This is a serious drawback especially in risk analysis where confidence intervals and probability of exceeding threshold values are required. Our contribution to fill this gap of knowledge is a probability distribution model for the local concentration of conservative tracers migrating in heterogeneous aquifers. Our model accounts for dilution, mechanical mixing within the sampling volume and spreading due to formation heterogeneity. It is developed by modeling local concentration dynamics with an Ito Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) that under the hypothesis of statistical stationarity leads to the Beta probability distribution function (pdf) for the solute concentration. This model shows large flexibility in capturing the smoothing effect of the sampling volume and the associated reduction of the probability of exceeding large concentrations. Furthermore, it is fully characterized by the first two moments of the solute concentration, and these are the same pieces of information required for standard geostatistical techniques employing Normal or Log-Normal distributions. Additionally, we show that in the absence of pore-scale dispersion and for point concentrations the pdf model converges to the binary distribution of [Dagan, G., 1982. Stochastic modeling of groundwater flow by unconditional and conditional probabilities, 2, The solute transport. Water Resour. Res. 18 (4), 835-848.], while it approaches the Normal distribution for sampling volumes much larger than the characteristic scale of the aquifer heterogeneity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the same model with the spatial moments replacing the statistical moments can be applied to estimate the proportion of the plume volume where solute concentrations are above or below critical thresholds. Application of this model to point and vertically averaged bromide concentrations from the first Cape Cod tracer test and to a set of numerical simulations confirms the above findings and for the first time it shows the superiority of the Beta model to both Normal and Log-Normal models in interpreting field data. Furthermore, we show that assuming a-priori that local concentrations are normally or log-normally distributed may result in a severe underestimate of the probability of exceeding large concentrations.

Mathematical modeling and experimental validation of the spatial distribution of boron in the root of Arabidopsis thaliana identify high boron accumulation in the tip and predict a distinct root tip uptake function.

PubMed

Shimotohno, Akie; Sotta, Naoyuki; Sato, Takafumi; De Ruvo, Micol; Marée, Athanasius F M; Grieneisen, Verônica A; Fujiwara, Toru

2015-04-01

Boron, an essential micronutrient, is transported in roots of Arabidopsis thaliana mainly by two different types of transporters, BORs and NIPs (nodulin26-like intrinsic proteins). Both are plasma membrane localized, but have distinct transport properties and patterns of cell type-specific accumulation with different polar localizations, which are likely to affect boron distribution. Here, we used mathematical modeling and an experimental determination to address boron distributions in the root. A computational model of the root is created at the cellular level, describing the boron transporters as observed experimentally. Boron is allowed to diffuse into roots, in cells and cell walls, and to be transported over plasma membranes, reflecting the properties of the different transporters. The model predicts that a region around the quiescent center has a higher concentration of soluble boron than other portions. To evaluate this prediction experimentally, we determined the boron distribution in roots using laser ablation-inductivity coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. The analysis indicated that the boron concentration is highest near the tip and is lower in the more proximal region of the meristem zone, similar to the pattern of soluble boron distribution predicted by the model. Our model also predicts that upward boron flux does not continuously increase from the root tip toward the mature region, indicating that boron taken up in the root tip is not efficiently transported to shoots. This suggests that root tip-absorbed boron is probably used for local root growth, and that instead it is the more mature root regions which have a greater role in transporting boron toward the shoots. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

Mathematical Modeling and Experimental Validation of the Spatial Distribution of Boron in the Root of Arabidopsis thaliana Identify High Boron Accumulation in the Tip and Predict a Distinct Root Tip Uptake Function

PubMed Central

Shimotohno, Akie; Sotta, Naoyuki; Sato, Takafumi; De Ruvo, Micol; Marée, Athanasius F.M.; Grieneisen, Verônica A.; Fujiwara, Toru

2015-01-01

Boron, an essential micronutrient, is transported in roots of Arabidopsis thaliana mainly by two different types of transporters, BORs and NIPs (nodulin26-like intrinsic proteins). Both are plasma membrane localized, but have distinct transport properties and patterns of cell type-specific accumulation with different polar localizations, which are likely to affect boron distribution. Here, we used mathematical modeling and an experimental determination to address boron distributions in the root. A computational model of the root is created at the cellular level, describing the boron transporters as observed experimentally. Boron is allowed to diffuse into roots, in cells and cell walls, and to be transported over plasma membranes, reflecting the properties of the different transporters. The model predicts that a region around the quiescent center has a higher concentration of soluble boron than other portions. To evaluate this prediction experimentally, we determined the boron distribution in roots using laser ablation-inductivity coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. The analysis indicated that the boron concentration is highest near the tip and is lower in the more proximal region of the meristem zone, similar to the pattern of soluble boron distribution predicted by the model. Our model also predicts that upward boron flux does not continuously increase from the root tip toward the mature region, indicating that boron taken up in the root tip is not efficiently transported to shoots. This suggests that root tip-absorbed boron is probably used for local root growth, and that instead it is the more mature root regions which have a greater role in transporting boron toward the shoots. PMID:25670713

Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions.

PubMed

Ikeda, Dana H; Max, Tamara L; Allan, Gerard J; Lau, Matthew K; Shuster, Stephen M; Whitham, Thomas G

2017-01-01

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species' ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species' niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12-fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decoupled scheme based on the Hermite expansion to construct lattice Boltzmann models for the compressible Navier-Stokes equations with arbitrary specific heat ratio.

PubMed

Hu, Kainan; Zhang, Hongwu; Geng, Shaojuan

2016-10-01

A decoupled scheme based on the Hermite expansion to construct lattice Boltzmann models for the compressible Navier-Stokes equations with arbitrary specific heat ratio is proposed. The local equilibrium distribution function including the rotational velocity of particle is decoupled into two parts, i.e., the local equilibrium distribution function of the translational velocity of particle and that of the rotational velocity of particle. From these two local equilibrium functions, two lattice Boltzmann models are derived via the Hermite expansion, namely one is in relation to the translational velocity and the other is connected with the rotational velocity. Accordingly, the distribution function is also decoupled. After this, the evolution equation is decoupled into the evolution equation of the translational velocity and that of the rotational velocity. The two evolution equations evolve separately. The lattice Boltzmann models used in the scheme proposed by this work are constructed via the Hermite expansion, so it is easy to construct new schemes of higher-order accuracy. To validate the proposed scheme, a one-dimensional shock tube simulation is performed. The numerical results agree with the analytical solutions very well.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal composition and root colonization, with weaker influences of plant identity and soil nutrients. These two studies across scales suggest prevailing effects of climate on AM fungal distributions. Thus, incorporating climate when forecasting future ranges of AM fungi will enhance predictions of AM fungal abundance and associated ecosystem functions.

Multiscale modeling of localized resistive heating in nanocrystalline metals subjected to electropulsing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jingyi; Wang, G.-X.; Dong, Yalin; Ye, Chang

2017-08-01

Many electrically assisted processes have been reported to induce changes in microstructure and metal plasticity. To understand the physics-based mechanisms behind these interesting phenomena, however, requires an understanding of the interaction between the electric current and heterogeneous microstructure. In this work, multiscale modeling of the electric current flow in a nanocrystalline material is reported. The cellular automata method was used to track the nanoscale grain boundaries in the matrix. Maxwell's electromagnetic equations were solved to obtain the electrical potential distribution at the macro scale. Kirchhoff's circuit equation was solved to obtain the electric current flow at the micro/nano scale. The electric current distribution at two representative locations was investigated. A significant electric current concentration was observed near the grain boundaries, particularly near the triple junctions. This higher localized electric current leads to localized resistive heating near the grain boundaries. The electric current distribution could be used to obtain critical information such as localized resistive heating rate and extra system free energy, which are critical for explaining many interesting phenomena, including microstructure evolution and plasticity enhancement in many electrically assisted processes.

Optical Coherence Tomography Noise Reduction Using Anisotropic Local Bivariate Gaussian Mixture Prior in 3D Complex Wavelet Domain

PubMed Central

Sonka, Milan; Abramoff, Michael D.

2013-01-01

In this paper, MMSE estimator is employed for noise-free 3D OCT data recovery in 3D complex wavelet domain. Since the proposed distribution for noise-free data plays a key role in the performance of MMSE estimator, a priori distribution for the pdf of noise-free 3D complex wavelet coefficients is proposed which is able to model the main statistical properties of wavelets. We model the coefficients with a mixture of two bivariate Gaussian pdfs with local parameters which are able to capture the heavy-tailed property and inter- and intrascale dependencies of coefficients. In addition, based on the special structure of OCT images, we use an anisotropic windowing procedure for local parameters estimation that results in visual quality improvement. On this base, several OCT despeckling algorithms are obtained based on using Gaussian/two-sided Rayleigh noise distribution and homomorphic/nonhomomorphic model. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm, we use 156 selected ROIs from 650 × 512 × 128 OCT dataset in the presence of wet AMD pathology. Our simulations show that the best MMSE estimator using local bivariate mixture prior is for the nonhomomorphic model in the presence of Gaussian noise which results in an improvement of 7.8 ± 1.7 in CNR. PMID:24222760

A redshift survey of IRAS galaxies. V - The acceleration on the Local Group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strauss, Michael A.; Yahil, Amos; Davis, Marc; Huchra, John P.; Fisher, Karl

1992-01-01

The acceleration on the Local Group is calculated based on a full-sky redshift survey of 5288 galaxies detected by IRAS. A formalism is developed to compute the distribution function of the IRAS acceleration for a given power spectrum of initial perturbations. The computed acceleration on the Local Group points 18-28 deg from the direction of the Local Group peculiar velocity vector. The data suggest that the CMB dipole is indeed due to the motion of the Local Group, that this motion is gravitationally induced, and that the distribution of IRAS galaxies on large scales is related to that of dark matter by a simple linear biasing model.

Results and Error Estimates from GRACE Forward Modeling over Greenland, Canada, and Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.

2012-12-01

Forward modeling using a weighted least squares technique allows GRACE information to be projected onto a pre-determined collection of local basins. This decreases the impact of spatial leakage, allowing estimates of mass change to be better localized. The technique is especially valuable where models of current-day mass change are poor, such as over Greenland and Antarctica. However, the accuracy of the forward model technique has not been determined, nor is it known how the distribution of the local basins affects the results. We use a "truth" model composed of hydrology and ice-melt slopes as an example case, to estimate the uncertainties of this forward modeling method and expose those design parameters which may result in an incorrect high-resolution mass distribution. We then apply these optimal parameters in a forward model estimate created from RL05 GRACE data. We compare the resulting mass slopes with the expected systematic errors from the simulation, as well as GIA and basic trend-fitting uncertainties. We also consider whether specific regions (such as Ellesmere Island and Baffin Island) can be estimated reliably using our optimal basin layout.

Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Symptom Prevalence and Local Distribution after an Earthquake with Scarce Data.

PubMed

Dussaillant, Francisca; Apablaza, Mauricio

2017-08-01

After a major earthquake, the assignment of scarce mental health emergency personnel to different geographic areas is crucial to the effective management of the crisis. The scarce information that is available in the aftermath of a disaster may be valuable in helping predict where are the populations that are in most need. The objectives of this study were to derive algorithms to predict posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake and to test whether there are algorithms that require few input data and are still reasonably predictive. A rich database of PTS symptoms, informed after Chile's 2010 earthquake and tsunami, was used. Several model specifications for the mean and centiles of the distribution of PTS symptoms, together with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence, were estimated via linear and quantile regressions. The models varied in the set of covariates included. Adjusted R2 for the most liberal specifications (in terms of numbers of covariates included) ranged from 0.62 to 0.74, depending on the outcome. When only including peak ground acceleration (PGA), poverty rate, and household damage in linear and quadratic form, predictive capacity was still good (adjusted R2 from 0.59 to 0.67 were obtained). Information about local poverty, household damage, and PGA can be used as an aid to predict PTS symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake. This can be of help to improve the assignment of mental health personnel to the affected localities. Dussaillant F , Apablaza M . Predicting posttraumatic stress symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake with scarce data. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(4):357-367.

A Fast Variational Approach for Learning Markov Random Field Language Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

the same distribution as n- gram models, but utilize a non-linear neural network pa- rameterization. NLMs have been shown to produce com- petitive...to either resort to local optimiza- tion methods, such as those used in neural lan- guage models, or work with heavily constrained distributions. In...embeddings learned through neural language models. Central to the language modelling problem is the challenge Proceedings of the 32nd International

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Distributed and decentralized state estimation in gas networks as distributed parameter systems.

PubMed

Ahmadian Behrooz, Hesam; Boozarjomehry, R Bozorgmehry

2015-09-01

In this paper, a framework for distributed and decentralized state estimation in high-pressure and long-distance gas transmission networks (GTNs) is proposed. The non-isothermal model of the plant including mass, momentum and energy balance equations are used to simulate the dynamic behavior. Due to several disadvantages of implementing a centralized Kalman filter for large-scale systems, the continuous/discrete form of extended Kalman filter for distributed and decentralized estimation (DDE) has been extended for these systems. Accordingly, the global model is decomposed into several subsystems, called local models. Some heuristic rules are suggested for system decomposition in gas pipeline networks. In the construction of local models, due to the existence of common states and interconnections among the subsystems, the assimilation and prediction steps of the Kalman filter are modified to take the overlapping and external states into account. However, dynamic Riccati equation for each subsystem is constructed based on the local model, which introduces a maximum error of 5% in the estimated standard deviation of the states in the benchmarks studied in this paper. The performance of the proposed methodology has been shown based on the comparison of its accuracy and computational demands against their counterparts in centralized Kalman filter for two viable benchmarks. In a real life network, it is shown that while the accuracy is not significantly decreased, the real-time factor of the state estimation is increased by a factor of 10. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

A Simulation of the ECSS Help Desk with the Erlang a Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

a popular distribution is the exponential distribution as shown in Figure 3. Figure 3: Exponential Distribution ( Bourke , 2001) Exponential...System Sciences, Vol 8, 235B. Bourke , P. (2001, January). Miscellaneous Functions. Retrieved January 22, 2011, from http://local.wasp.uwa.edu.au

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Multi-temperature model derived from state-to-state kinetics for hypersonic entry in Jupiter atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colonna, G.; D'Ambrosio, D.; D'Ammando, G.; Pietanza, L. D.; Capitelli, M.

2014-12-01

A state-to-state model of H2/He plasmas coupling the master equations for internal distributions of heavy species with the transport equation for the free electrons has been used as a basis for implementing a multi-temperature kinetic model. In the multi-temperature model internal distributions of heavy particles are Boltzmann, the electron energy distribution function is Maxwell, and the rate coefficients of the elementary processes become a function of local temperatures associated to the relevant equilibrium distributions. The state-to-state and multi-temperature models have been compared in the case of a homogenous recombining plasma, reproducing the conditions met during supersonic expansion though converging-diverging nozzles.

Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2014-12-01

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

Distribution of localized states from fine analysis of electron spin resonance spectra of organic semiconductors: Physical meaning and methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishchenko, Andrey S.; Matsui, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Tatsuo

2012-02-01

We develop an analytical method for the processing of electron spin resonance (ESR) spectra. The goal is to obtain the distributions of trapped carriers over both their degree of localization and their binding energy in semiconductor crystals or films composed of regularly aligned organic molecules [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.104.056602 104, 056602 (2010)]. Our method has two steps. We first carry out a fine analysis of the shape of the ESR spectra due to the trapped carriers; this reveals the distribution of the trap density of the states over the degree of localization. This analysis is based on the reasonable assumption that the linewidth of the trapped carriers is predetermined by their degree of localization because of the hyperfine mechanism. We then transform the distribution over the degree of localization into a distribution over the binding energies. The transformation uses the relationships between the binding energies and the localization parameters of the trapped carriers. The particular relation for the system under study is obtained by the Holstein model for trapped polarons using a diagrammatic Monte Carlo analysis. We illustrate the application of the method to pentacene organic thin-film transistors.

The Competition Between a Localised and Distributed Source of Buoyancy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partridge, Jamie; Linden, Paul

2012-11-01

We propose a new mathematical model to study the competition between localised and distributed sources of buoyancy within a naturally ventilated filling box. The main controlling parameters in this configuration are the buoyancy fluxes of the distributed and local source, specifically their ratio Ψ. The steady state dynamics of the flow are heavily dependent on this parameter. For large Ψ, where the distributed source dominates, we find the space becomes well mixed as expected if driven by an distributed source alone. Conversely, for small Ψ we find the space reaches a stable two layer stratification. This is analogous to the classical case of a purely local source but here the lower layer is buoyant compared to the ambient, due to the constant flux of buoyancy emanating from the distributed source. The ventilation flow rate, buoyancy of the layers and also the location of the interface height, which separates the two layer stratification, are obtainable from the model. To validate the theoretical model, small scale laboratory experiments were carried out. Water was used as the working medium with buoyancy being driven directly by temperature differences. Theoretical results were compared with experimental data and overall good agreement was found. A CASE award project with Arup.

Empirical comparison of heuristic load distribution in point-to-point multicomputer networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grunwald, Dirk C.; Nazief, Bobby A. A.; Reed, Daniel A.

1990-01-01

The study compared several load placement algorithms using instrumented programs and synthetic program models. Salient characteristics of these program traces (total computation time, total number of messages sent, and average message time) span two orders of magnitude. Load distribution algorithms determine the initial placement for processes, a precursor to the more general problem of load redistribution. It is found that desirable workload distribution strategies will place new processes globally, rather than locally, to spread processes rapidly, but that local information should be used to refine global placement.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-02-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Random-Walk Type Model with Fat Tails for Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matuttis, Hans-Geors

Starting from the random-walk model, practices of financial markets are included into the random-walk so that fat tail distributions like those in the high frequency data of the SP500 index are reproduced, though the individual mechanisms are modeled by normally distributed data. The incorporation of local correlation narrows the distribution for "frequent" events, whereas global correlations due to technical analysis leads to fat tails. Delay of market transactions in the trading process shifts the fat tail probabilities downwards. Such an inclusion of reactions to market fluctuations leads to mini-trends which are distributed with unit variance.

A theoretical derivation of the dilatancy equation for brittle rocks based on Maxwell model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jie; Huang, Houxu; Wang, Mingyang

2017-03-01

In this paper, the micro-cracks in the brittle rocks are assumed to be penny shaped and evenly distributed; the damage and dilatancy of the brittle rocks is attributed to the growth and expansion of numerous micro-cracks under the local tensile stress. A single crack's behaviour under the local tensile stress is generalized to all cracks based on the distributed damage mechanics. The relationship between the local tensile stress and the external loading is derived based on the Maxwell model. The damage factor corresponding to the external loading is represented using the p-alpha ( p- α) model. A dilatancy equation that can build up a link between the external loading and the rock dilatancy is established. A test of dilatancy of a brittle rock under triaxial compression is conducted; the comparison between experimental results and our theoretical results shows good consistency.

Three-dimensional eddy current solution of a polyphase machine test model (abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pahner, Uwe; Belmans, Ronnie; Ostovic, Vlado

1994-05-01

This abstract describes a three-dimensional (3D) finite element solution of a test model that has been reported in the literature. The model is a basis for calculating the current redistribution effects in the end windings of turbogenerators. The aim of the study is to see whether the analytical results of the test model can be found using a general purpose finite element package, thus indicating that the finite element model is accurate enough to treat real end winding problems. The real end winding problems cannot be solved analytically, as the geometry is far too complicated. The model consists of a polyphase coil set, containing 44 individual coils. This set generates a two pole mmf distribution on a cylindrical surface. The rotating field causes eddy currents to flow in the inner massive and conducting rotor. In the analytical solution a perfect sinusoidal mmf distribution is put forward. The finite element model contains 85824 tetrahedra and 16451 nodes. A complex single scalar potential representation is used in the nonconducting parts. The computation time required was 3 h and 42 min. The flux plots show that the field distribution is acceptable. Furthermore, the induced currents are calculated and compared with the values found from the analytical solution. The distribution of the eddy currents is very close to the distribution of the analytical solution. The most important results are the losses, both local and global. The value of the overall losses is less than 2% away from those of the analytical solution. Also the local distribution of the losses is at any given point less than 7% away from the analytical solution. The deviations of the results are acceptable and are partially due to the fact that the sinusoidal mmf distribution was not modeled perfectly in the finite element method.

Novel active contour model based on multi-variate local Gaussian distribution for local segmentation of MR brain images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Qiang; Li, Honglun; Fan, Baode; Wu, Shuanhu; Xu, Jindong

2017-12-01

Active contour model (ACM) has been one of the most widely utilized methods in magnetic resonance (MR) brain image segmentation because of its ability of capturing topology changes. However, most of the existing ACMs only consider single-slice information in MR brain image data, i.e., the information used in ACMs based segmentation method is extracted only from one slice of MR brain image, which cannot take full advantage of the adjacent slice images' information, and cannot satisfy the local segmentation of MR brain images. In this paper, a novel ACM is proposed to solve the problem discussed above, which is based on multi-variate local Gaussian distribution and combines the adjacent slice images' information in MR brain image data to satisfy segmentation. The segmentation is finally achieved through maximizing the likelihood estimation. Experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proposed ACM over the single-slice ACM in local segmentation of MR brain image series.

Stress Distribution During Deformation of Polycrystalline Aluminum by Molecular-Dynamics and Finite-Element Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yamakov, V.; Saether, E.; Phillips, D.; Glaessgen, E. H.

2004-01-01

In this paper, a multiscale modelling strategy is used to study the effect of grain-boundary sliding on stress localization in a polycrystalline microstructure with an uneven distribution of grain size. The development of the molecular dynamics (MD) analysis used to interrogate idealized grain microstructures with various types of grain boundaries and the multiscale modelling strategies for modelling large systems of grains is discussed. Both molecular-dynamics and finite-element (FE) simulations for idealized polycrystalline models of identical geometry are presented with the purpose of demonstrating the effectiveness of the adapted finite-element method using cohesive zone models to reproduce grain-boundary sliding and its effect on the stress distribution in a polycrystalline metal. The yield properties of the grain-boundary interface, used in the FE simulations, are extracted from a MD simulation on a bicrystal. The models allow for the study of the load transfer between adjacent grains of very different size through grain-boundary sliding during deformation. A large-scale FE simulation of 100 grains of a typical microstructure is then presented to reveal that the stress distribution due to grain-boundary sliding during uniform tensile strain can lead to stress localization of two to three times the background stress, thus suggesting a significant effect on the failure properties of the metal.

Rainfall-triggered shallow landslides at catchment scale: Threshold mechanics-based modeling for abruptness and localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Ruette, J.; Lehmann, P.; Or, D.

2013-10-01

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides may occur abruptly without distinct precursors and could span a wide range of soil mass released during a triggering event. We present a rainfall-induced landslide-triggering model for steep catchments with surfaces represented as an assembly of hydrologically and mechanically interconnected soil columns. The abruptness of failure was captured by defining local strength thresholds for mechanical bonds linking soil and bedrock and adjacent columns, whereby a failure of a single bond may initiate a chain reaction of subsequent failures, culminating in local mass release (a landslide). The catchment-scale hydromechanical landslide-triggering model (CHLT) was applied to results from two event-based landslide inventories triggered by two rainfall events in 2002 and 2005 in two nearby catchments located in the Prealps in Switzerland. Rainfall radar data, surface elevation and vegetation maps, and a soil production model for soil depth distribution were used for hydromechanical modeling of failure patterns for the two rainfall events at spatial and temporal resolutions of 2.5 m and 0.02 h, respectively. The CHLT model enabled systematic evaluation of the effects of soil type, mechanical reinforcement (soil cohesion and lateral root strength), and initial soil water content on landslide characteristics. We compared various landslide metrics and spatial distribution of simulated landslides in subcatchments with observed inventory data. Model parameters were optimized for the short but intense rainfall event in 2002, and the calibrated model was then applied for the 2005 rainfall, yielding reasonable predictions of landslide events and volumes and statistically reproducing localized landslide patterns similar to inventory data. The model provides a means for identifying local hot spots and offers insights into the dynamics of locally resolved landslide hazards in mountainous regions.

Spectroscopic measurement of spin-dependent resonant tunneling through a 3D disorder: the case of MnAs/GaAs/MnAs junctions.

PubMed

Garcia, V; Jaffrès, H; George, J-M; Marangolo, M; Eddrief, M; Etgens, V H

2006-12-15

We propose an analytical model of spin-dependent resonant tunneling through a 3D assembly of localized states (spread out in energy and in space) in a barrier. An inhomogeneous distribution of localized states leads to resonant tunneling magnetoresistance inversion and asymmetric bias dependence as evidenced with a set of experiments with MnAs/GaAs(7-10 nm)/MnAs tunnel junctions. One of the key parameters of our theory is a dimensionless critical exponent beta scaling the typical extension of the localized states over the characteristic length scale of the spatial distribution function. Furthermore, we demonstrate, through experiments with localized states introduced preferentially in the middle of the barrier, the influence of an homogeneous distribution on the spin-dependent transport properties.

Theory of wave propagation in partially saturated double-porosity rocks: a triple-layer patchy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Weitao; Ba, Jing; Carcione, José M.

2016-04-01

Wave-induced local fluid flow is known as a key mechanism to explain the intrinsic wave dissipation in fluid-saturated rocks. Understanding the relationship between the acoustic properties of rocks and fluid patch distributions is important to interpret the observed seismic wave phenomena. A triple-layer patchy (TLP) model is proposed to describe the P-wave dissipation process in a double-porosity media saturated with two immiscible fluids. The double-porosity rock consists of a solid matrix with unique host porosity and inclusions which contain the second type of pores. Two immiscible fluids are considered in concentric spherical patches, where the inner pocket and the outer sphere are saturated with different fluids. The kinetic and dissipation energy functions of local fluid flow (LFF) in the inner pocket are formulated through oscillations in spherical coordinates. The wave propagation equations of the TLP model are based on Biot's theory and the corresponding Lagrangian equations. The P-wave dispersion and attenuation caused by the Biot friction mechanism and the local fluid flow (related to the pore structure and the fluid distribution) are obtained by a plane-wave analysis from the Christoffel equations. Numerical examples and laboratory measurements indicate that P-wave dispersion and attenuation are significantly influenced by the spatial distributions of both, the solid heterogeneity and the fluid saturation distribution. The TLP model is in reasonably good agreement with White's and Johnson's models. However, differences in phase velocity suggest that the heterogeneities associated with double-porosity and dual-fluid distribution should be taken into account when describing the P-wave dispersion and attenuation in partially saturated rocks.

The eGo grid model: An open-source and open-data based synthetic medium-voltage grid model for distribution power supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amme, J.; Pleßmann, G.; Bühler, J.; Hülk, L.; Kötter, E.; Schwaegerl, P.

2018-02-01

The increasing integration of renewable energy into the electricity supply system creates new challenges for distribution grids. The planning and operation of distribution systems requires appropriate grid models that consider the heterogeneity of existing grids. In this paper, we describe a novel method to generate synthetic medium-voltage (MV) grids, which we applied in our DIstribution Network GeneratOr (DINGO). DINGO is open-source software and uses freely available data. Medium-voltage grid topologies are synthesized based on location and electricity demand in defined demand areas. For this purpose, we use GIS data containing demand areas with high-resolution spatial data on physical properties, land use, energy, and demography. The grid topology is treated as a capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) combined with a local search metaheuristics. We also consider the current planning principles for MV distribution networks, paying special attention to line congestion and voltage limit violations. In the modelling process, we included power flow calculations for validation. The resulting grid model datasets contain 3608 synthetic MV grids in high resolution, covering all of Germany and taking local characteristics into account. We compared the modelled networks with real network data. In terms of number of transformers and total cable length, we conclude that the method presented in this paper generates realistic grids that could be used to implement a cost-optimised electrical energy system.

Advanced local area network concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grant, Terry

1985-01-01

Development of a good model of the data traffic requirements for Local Area Networks (LANs) onboard the Space Station is the driving problem in this work. A parameterized workload model is under development. An analysis contract has been started specifically to capture the distributed processing requirements for the Space Station and then to develop a top level model to simulate how various processing scenarios can handle the workload and what data communication patterns result. A summary of the Local Area Network Extendsible Simulator 2 Requirements Specification and excerpts from a grant report on the topological design of fiber optic local area networks with application to Expressnet are given.

Upscaling of spectral induced polarization response using random tube networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maineult, Alexis; Revil, André; Camerlynck, Christian; Florsch, Nicolas; Titov, Konstantin

2017-05-01

In order to upscale the induced polarization (IP) response of porous media, from the pore scale to the sample scale, we implement a procedure to compute the macroscopic complex resistivity response of random tube networks. A network is made of a 2-D square-meshed grid of connected tubes, which obey to a given tube radius distribution. In a simplified approach, the electrical impedance of each tube follows a local Pelton resistivity model, with identical resistivity, chargeability and Cole-Cole exponent values for all the tubes-only the time constant varies, as it depends on the radius of each tube and on a diffusion coefficient also identical for all the tubes. By solving the conservation law for the electrical charge, the macroscopic IP response of the network is obtained. We fit successfully the macroscopic complex resistivity also by a Pelton resistivity model. Simulations on uncorrelated and correlated networks, for which the tube radius distribution is so that the decimal logarithm of the radius is normally distributed, evidence that the local and macroscopic model parameters are the same, except the Cole-Cole exponent: its macroscopic value diminishes with increasing heterogeneity (i.e. with increasing standard deviation of the radius distribution), compared to its local value. The methodology is also applied to six siliciclastic rock samples, for which the pore radius distributions from mercury porosimetry are available. These samples exhibit the same behaviour as synthetic media, that is, the macroscopic Cole-Cole exponent is always lower than the local one. As a conclusion, the pore network method seems to be a promising tool for studying the upscaling of the IP response of porous media.

Local Burn-Up Effects in the NBSR Fuel Element

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown N. R.; Hanson A.; Diamond, D.

2013-01-31

This study addresses the over-prediction of local power when the burn-up distribution in each half-element of the NBSR is assumed to be uniform. A single-element model was utilized to quantify the impact of axial and plate-wise burn-up on the power distribution within the NBSR fuel elements for both high-enriched uranium (HEU) and low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. To validate this approach, key parameters in the single-element model were compared to parameters from an equilibrium core model, including neutron energy spectrum, power distribution, and integral U-235 vector. The power distribution changes significantly when incorporating local burn-up effects and has lower power peakingmore » relative to the uniform burn-up case. In the uniform burn-up case, the axial relative power peaking is over-predicted by as much as 59% in the HEU single-element and 46% in the LEU single-element with uniform burn-up. In the uniform burn-up case, the plate-wise power peaking is over-predicted by as much as 23% in the HEU single-element and 18% in the LEU single-element. The degree of over-prediction increases as a function of burn-up cycle, with the greatest over-prediction at the end of Cycle 8. The thermal flux peak is always in the mid-plane gap; this causes the local cumulative burn-up near the mid-plane gap to be significantly higher than the fuel element average. Uniform burn-up distribution throughout a half-element also causes a bias in fuel element reactivity worth, due primarily to the neutronic importance of the fissile inventory in the mid-plane gap region.« less

Real-time distribution of pelagic fish: combining hydroacoustics, GIS and spatial modelling at a fine spatial scale.

PubMed

Muška, Milan; Tušer, Michal; Frouzová, Jaroslava; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Ricard, Daniel; Seďa, Jaromír; Morelli, Federico; Kubečka, Jan

2018-03-29

Understanding spatial distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environment remains one of the chief issues in ecology. Spatial organization of freshwater fish was investigated predominantly on large-scale, neglecting important local conditions and ecological processes. However, small-scale processes are of an essential importance for individual habitat preferences and hence structuring trophic cascades and species coexistence. In this work, we analysed the real-time spatial distribution of pelagic freshwater fish in the Římov Reservoir (Czechia) observed by hydroacoustics in relation to important environmental predictors during 48 hours at 3-h interval. Effect of diurnal cycle was revealed of highest significance in all spatial models with inverse trends between fish distribution and predictors in day and night in general. Our findings highlighted daytime pelagic fish distribution as highly aggregated, with general fish preferences for central, deep and highly illuminated areas, whereas nighttime distribution was more disperse and fish preferred nearshore steep sloped areas with higher depth. This turnover suggests prominent movements of significant part of fish assemblage between pelagic and nearshore areas on a diel basis. In conclusion, hydroacoustics, GIS and spatial modelling proved as valuable tool for predicting local fish distribution and elucidate its drivers, which has far reaching implications for understanding freshwater ecosystem functioning.

Global distribution of neutral wind shear associated with sporadic E layers derived from GAIA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinagawa, H.; Miyoshi, Y.; Jin, H.; Fujiwara, H.

2017-04-01

There have been a number of papers reporting that the statistical occurrence rate of the sporadic E (Es) layer depends not only on the local time and season but also on the geographical location, implying that geographical and seasonal dependence in vertical neutral wind shear is one of the factors responsible for the geographical and seasonal dependence in Es layer occurrences rate. To study the role of neutral wind shear in the global distribution of the Es layer occurrence rate, we employ a self-consistent atmosphere-ionosphere coupled model called GAIA (Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy), which incorporates meteorological reanalysis data in the lower atmosphere. The average distribution of neutral wind shear in the lower thermosphere is derived for the June-August and December-February periods, and the global distribution of vertical ion convergence is obtained to estimate the Es layer occurrence rate. It is found that the local and seasonal dependence of neutral wind shear is an important factor in determining the dependence of the Es layer occurrence rate on geographical distribution and seasonal variation. However, there are uncertainties in the simulated vertical neutral wind shears, which have larger scales than the observed wind shear scales. Furthermore, other processes such as localization of magnetic field distribution, background metallic ion distribution, ionospheric electric fields, and chemical processes of metallic ions are also likely to make an important contribution to geographical distribution and seasonal variation of the Es occurrence rate.

A local structure model for network analysis

DOE PAGES

Casleton, Emily; Nordman, Daniel; Kaiser, Mark

2017-04-01

The statistical analysis of networks is a popular research topic with ever widening applications. Exponential random graph models (ERGMs), which specify a model through interpretable, global network features, are common for this purpose. In this study we introduce a new class of models for network analysis, called local structure graph models (LSGMs). In contrast to an ERGM, a LSGM specifies a network model through local features and allows for an interpretable and controllable local dependence structure. In particular, LSGMs are formulated by a set of full conditional distributions for each network edge, e.g., the probability of edge presence/absence, depending onmore » neighborhoods of other edges. Additional model features are introduced to aid in specification and to help alleviate a common issue (occurring also with ERGMs) of model degeneracy. Finally, the proposed models are demonstrated on a network of tornadoes in Arkansas where a LSGM is shown to perform significantly better than a model without local dependence.« less

A local structure model for network analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casleton, Emily; Nordman, Daniel; Kaiser, Mark

The statistical analysis of networks is a popular research topic with ever widening applications. Exponential random graph models (ERGMs), which specify a model through interpretable, global network features, are common for this purpose. In this study we introduce a new class of models for network analysis, called local structure graph models (LSGMs). In contrast to an ERGM, a LSGM specifies a network model through local features and allows for an interpretable and controllable local dependence structure. In particular, LSGMs are formulated by a set of full conditional distributions for each network edge, e.g., the probability of edge presence/absence, depending onmore » neighborhoods of other edges. Additional model features are introduced to aid in specification and to help alleviate a common issue (occurring also with ERGMs) of model degeneracy. Finally, the proposed models are demonstrated on a network of tornadoes in Arkansas where a LSGM is shown to perform significantly better than a model without local dependence.« less

Online Adaboost-Based Parameterized Methods for Dynamic Distributed Network Intrusion Detection.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Gao, Jun; Wang, Yanguo; Wu, Ou; Maybank, Stephen

2014-01-01

Current network intrusion detection systems lack adaptability to the frequently changing network environments. Furthermore, intrusion detection in the new distributed architectures is now a major requirement. In this paper, we propose two online Adaboost-based intrusion detection algorithms. In the first algorithm, a traditional online Adaboost process is used where decision stumps are used as weak classifiers. In the second algorithm, an improved online Adaboost process is proposed, and online Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are used as weak classifiers. We further propose a distributed intrusion detection framework, in which a local parameterized detection model is constructed in each node using the online Adaboost algorithm. A global detection model is constructed in each node by combining the local parametric models using a small number of samples in the node. This combination is achieved using an algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and support vector machines. The global model in each node is used to detect intrusions. Experimental results show that the improved online Adaboost process with GMMs obtains a higher detection rate and a lower false alarm rate than the traditional online Adaboost process that uses decision stumps. Both the algorithms outperform existing intrusion detection algorithms. It is also shown that our PSO, and SVM-based algorithm effectively combines the local detection models into the global model in each node; the global model in a node can handle the intrusion types that are found in other nodes, without sharing the samples of these intrusion types.

On modeling pressure diffusion in non-homogeneous shear flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demuren, A. O.; Rogers, M. M.; Durbin, P.; Lele, S. K.

1996-01-01

New models are proposed for the 'slow and 'rapid' parts of the pressure diffusive transport based on the examination of DNS databases for plane mixing layers and wakes. The model for the 'slow' part is non-local, but requires the distribution of the triple-velocity correlation as a local source. The latter can be computed accurately for the normal component from standard gradient diffusion models, but such models are inadequate for the cross component. More work is required to remedy this situation.

A GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) for air pollution assessment--a North American case study.

PubMed

Wang, Bao-Zhen; Chen, Zhi

2013-01-01

This article presents a GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) to predict the spatial concentration distributions of airborne pollutant on local and regional scales. In this method, an extended multi-box model combined with a multi-source and multi-grid Gaussian model are developed within the GIS framework to examine the contributions from both point- and area-source emissions. By using GIS, a large amount of data including emission sources, air quality monitoring, meteorological data, and spatial location information required for air quality modeling are brought into an integrated modeling environment. It helps more details of spatial variation in source distribution and meteorological condition to be quantitatively analyzed. The developed modeling approach has been examined to predict the spatial concentration distribution of four air pollutants (CO, NO(2), SO(2) and PM(2.5)) for the State of California. The modeling results are compared with the monitoring data. Good agreement is acquired which demonstrated that the developed modeling approach could deliver an effective air pollution assessment on both regional and local scales to support air pollution control and management planning.

A mathematical modeling method for determination of local vibroacoustic characteristics of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tartakovskiy, B. D.; Dubner, A. B.

1973-01-01

A method is proposed for determining vibroacoustic characteristics from the results of measurements of the distribution of vibrational energy in a structure. The method is based on an energy model of a structure studied earlier. Equations are written to describe the distribution of vibrational energy in a hypothetical diffuse energy state in structural elements.

Active source monitoring at the Wenchuan fault zone: coseismic velocity change associated with aftershock event and its implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wei; Ge, Hongkui; Wang, Baoshan; Hu, Jiupeng; Yuan, Songyong; Qiao, Sen

2014-12-01

With the improvement of seismic observation system, more and more observations indicate that earthquakes may cause seismic velocity change. However, the amplitude and spatial distribution of the velocity variation remains a controversial issue. Recent active source monitoring carried out adjacent to Wenchuan Fault Scientific Drilling (WFSD) revealed unambiguous coseismic velocity change associated with a local M s5.5 earthquake. Here, we carry out forward modeling using two-dimensional spectral element method to further investigate the amplitude and spatial distribution of observed velocity change. The model is well constrained by results from seismic reflection and WFSD coring. Our model strongly suggests that the observed coseismic velocity change is localized within the fault zone with width of ~120 m rather than dynamic strong ground shaking. And a velocity decrease of ~2.0 % within the fault zone is required to fit the observed travel time delay distribution, which coincides with rock mechanical experiment and theoretical modeling.

Aeolian dunes as ground truth for atmospheric modeling on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayward, R.K.; Titus, T.N.; Michaels, T.I.; Fenton, L.K.; Colaprete, A.; Christensen, P.R.

2009-01-01

Martian aeolian dunes preserve a record of atmosphere/surface interaction on a variety of scales, serving as ground truth for both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and mesoscale climate models, such as the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS). We hypothesize that the location of dune fields, expressed globally by geographic distribution and locally by dune centroid azimuth (DCA), may record the long-term integration of atmospheric activity across a broad area, preserving GCM-scale atmospheric trends. In contrast, individual dune morphology, as expressed in slipface orientation (SF), may be more sensitive to localized variations in circulation, preserving topographically controlled mesoscale trends. We test this hypothesis by comparing the geographic distribution, DCA, and SF of dunes with output from the Ames Mars GCM and, at a local study site, with output from MRAMS. When compared to the GCM: 1) dunes generally lie adjacent to areas with strongest winds, 2) DCA agrees fairly well with GCM modeled wind directions in smooth-floored craters, and 3) SF does not agree well with GCM modeled wind directions. When compared to MRAMS modeled winds at our study site: 1) DCA generally coincides with the part of the crater where modeled mean winds are weak, and 2) SFs are consistent with some weak, topographically influenced modeled winds. We conclude that: 1) geographic distribution may be valuable as ground truth for GCMs, 2) DCA may be useful as ground truth for both GCM and mesoscale models, and 3) SF may be useful as ground truth for mesoscale models. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

PubMed Central

Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as species experience changes in distribution in response to climate change. PMID:24466253

A computer model of molecular arrangement in a n-paraffinic liquid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacatello, Michele; Avitabile, Gustavo; Corradini, Paolo; Tuzi, Angela

1980-07-01

A computer model of a bulk liquid polymer was built to investigate the problem of local order. The model is made of C30 n-alkane molecules; it is not a lattice model, but it allows for a continuous variability of torsion angles and interchain distances, subject to realistic intra- and intermolecular potentials. Experimental x-ray scattering curves and radial distribution functions are well reproduced. Calculated properties like end-to-end distances, distribution of torsion angles, radial distribution functions, and chain direction correlation parameters, all indicate a random coil conformation and no tendency to form bundles of parallel chains.

Neural networks for continuous online learning and control.

PubMed

Choy, Min Chee; Srinivasan, Dipti; Cheu, Ruey Long

2006-11-01

This paper proposes a new hybrid neural network (NN) model that employs a multistage online learning process to solve the distributed control problem with an infinite horizon. Various techniques such as reinforcement learning and evolutionary algorithm are used to design the multistage online learning process. For this paper, the infinite horizon distributed control problem is implemented in the form of real-time distributed traffic signal control for intersections in a large-scale traffic network. The hybrid neural network model is used to design each of the local traffic signal controllers at the respective intersections. As the state of the traffic network changes due to random fluctuation of traffic volumes, the NN-based local controllers will need to adapt to the changing dynamics in order to provide effective traffic signal control and to prevent the traffic network from becoming overcongested. Such a problem is especially challenging if the local controllers are used for an infinite horizon problem where online learning has to take place continuously once the controllers are implemented into the traffic network. A comprehensive simulation model of a section of the Central Business District (CBD) of Singapore has been developed using PARAMICS microscopic simulation program. As the complexity of the simulation increases, results show that the hybrid NN model provides significant improvement in traffic conditions when evaluated against an existing traffic signal control algorithm as well as a new, continuously updated simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation-based neural network (SPSA-NN). Using the hybrid NN model, the total mean delay of each vehicle has been reduced by 78% and the total mean stoppage time of each vehicle has been reduced by 84% compared to the existing traffic signal control algorithm. This shows the efficacy of the hybrid NN model in solving large-scale traffic signal control problem in a distributed manner. Also, it indicates the possibility of using the hybrid NN model for other applications that are similar in nature as the infinite horizon distributed control problem.

Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2002-01-01

In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a factor of 3 or more. These results indicate that there is substantially more variation in the local tsunami wave field derived from the inherent complexity subduction zone earthquakes than predicted by a simple elastic dislocation model. Probabilistic methods that take into account variability in earthquake rupture processes are likely to yield more accurate assessments of tsunami hazards.

Modeling of stress distributions on the microstructural level in Alloy 600

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kozaczek, K.J.; Petrovic, B.G.; Ruud, C.O.

1995-04-01

Stress distribution in a random polycrystalline material (Alloy 600) was studied using a topologically correct microstructural model. Distributions of von Mises and hydrostatic stresses at the grain vertices, which could be important in intergranular stress corrosion cracking, were analyzed as functions of microstructure, grain orientations and loading conditions. Grain size, shape, and orientation had a more pronounced effect on stress distribution than loading conditions. At grain vertices the stress concentration factor was higher for hydrostatic stress (1.7) than for von Mises stress (1.5). The stress/strain distribution in the volume (grain interiors) is a normal distribution and does not depend onmore » the location of the studied material volume i.e., surface vs/bulk. The analysis of stress distribution in the volume showed the von Mises stress concentration of 1.75 and stress concentration of 2.2 for the hydrostatic pressure. The observed stress concentration is high enough to cause localized plastic microdeformation, even when the polycrystalline aggregate is in the macroscopic elastic regime. Modeling of stresses and strains in polycrystalline materials can identify the microstructures (grain size distributions, texture) intrinsically susceptible to stress/strain concentrations and justify the correctness of applied stress state during the stress corrosion cracking tests. Also, it supplies the information necessary to formulate the local failure criteria and interpret of nondestructive stress measurements.« less

Annealed Importance Sampling for Neural Mass Models

PubMed Central

Penny, Will; Sengupta, Biswa

2016-01-01

Neural Mass Models provide a compact description of the dynamical activity of cell populations in neocortical regions. Moreover, models of regional activity can be connected together into networks, and inferences made about the strength of connections, using M/EEG data and Bayesian inference. To date, however, Bayesian methods have been largely restricted to the Variational Laplace (VL) algorithm which assumes that the posterior distribution is Gaussian and finds model parameters that are only locally optimal. This paper explores the use of Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) to address these restrictions. We implement AIS using proposals derived from Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) which uses local gradient and curvature information for efficient exploration of parameter space. In terms of the estimation of Bayes factors, VL and AIS agree about which model is best but report different degrees of belief. Additionally, AIS finds better model parameters and we find evidence of non-Gaussianity in their posterior distribution. PMID:26942606

Description of waves in inhomogeneous domains using Heun's equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bednarik, M.; Cervenka, M.

2018-04-01

There are a number of model equations describing electromagnetic, acoustic or quantum waves in inhomogeneous domains and some of them are of the same type from the mathematical point of view. This isomorphism enables us to use a unified approach to solving the corresponding equations. In this paper, the inhomogeneity is represented by a trigonometric spatial distribution of a parameter determining the properties of an inhomogeneous domain. From the point of view of modeling, this trigonometric parameter function can be smoothly connected to neighboring constant-parameter regions. For this type of distribution, exact local solutions of the model equations are represented by the local Heun functions. As the interval for which the solution is sought includes two regular singular points. For this reason, a method is proposed which resolves this problem only based on the local Heun functions. Further, the transfer matrix for the considered inhomogeneous domain is determined by means of the proposed method. As an example of the applicability of the presented solutions the transmission coefficient is calculated for the locally periodic structure which is given by an array of asymmetric barriers.

Transferability of species distribution models for the detection of an invasive alien bryophyte using imaging spectroscopy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skowronek, Sandra; Van De Kerchove, Ruben; Rombouts, Bjorn; Aerts, Raf; Ewald, Michael; Warrie, Jens; Schiefer, Felix; Garzon-Lopez, Carol; Hattab, Tarek; Honnay, Olivier; Lenoir, Jonathan; Rocchini, Duccio; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Somers, Ben; Feilhauer, Hannes

2018-06-01

Remote sensing is a promising tool for detecting invasive alien plant species. Mapping and monitoring those species requires accurate detection. So far, most studies relied on models that are locally calibrated and validated against available field data. Consequently, detecting invasive alien species at new study areas requires the acquisition of additional field data which can be expensive and time-consuming. Model transfer might thus provide a viable alternative. Here, we mapped the distribution of the invasive alien bryophyte Campylopus introflexus to i) assess the feasibility of spatially transferring locally calibrated models for species detection between four different heathland areas in Germany and Belgium and ii) test the potential of combining calibration data from different sites in one species distribution model (SDM). In a first step, four different SDMs were locally calibrated and validated by combining field data and airborne imaging spectroscopy data with a spatial resolution ranging from 1.8 m to 4 m and a spectral resolution of about 10 nm (244 bands). A one-class classifier, Maxent, which is based on the comparison of probability densities, was used to generate all SDMs. In a second step, each model was transferred to the three other study areas and the performance of the models for predicting C. introflexus occurrences was assessed. Finally, models combining calibration data from three study areas were built and tested on the remaining fourth site. In this step, different combinations of Maxent modelling parameters were tested. For the local models, the area under the curve for a test dataset (test AUC) was between 0.57-0.78, while the test AUC for the single transfer models ranged between 0.45-0.89. For the combined models the test AUC was between 0.54-0.9. The success of transferring models calibrated in one site to another site highly depended on the respective study site; the combined models provided higher test AUC values than the locally calibrated models for three out of four study sites. Furthermore, we also demonstrated the importance of optimizing the Maxent modelling parameters. Overall, our results indicate the potential of a combined model to map C. introflexus without the need for new calibration data.

A distributed algorithm for machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shihong

2018-04-01

This paper considers a distributed learning problem in which a group of machines in a connected network, each learning its own local dataset, aim to reach a consensus at an optimal model, by exchanging information only with their neighbors but without transmitting data. A distributed algorithm is proposed to solve this problem under appropriate assumptions.

Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter.

PubMed

Welden, Natalie Ac; Lusher, Amy L

2017-05-01

Marine plastic pollution is currently a major scientific focus, with attention paid to its distribution and impacts within ecosystems. With recent estimates indicating that the mass of plastic released to the marine environment may reach 250 million metric tons by 2025, the effects of plastic on our oceans are set to increase. Distribution of microplastics, those plastics measuring less than 5 mm, are of increasing concern because they represent an increasing proportion of marine litter and are known to interact with species in a range of marine habitats. The local abundance of microplastic is dependent on a complex interaction between the scale of local plastic sources and prevailing environmental conditions; as a result, microplastic distribution is highly heterogeneous. Circulation models have been used to predict plastic distribution; however, current models do not consider future variation in circulation patterns and weather systems caused by a changing climate. In this study, we discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on the abundance and distribution of marine plastic pollution. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:483-487. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Distributed Bayesian Computation and Self-Organized Learning in Sheets of Spiking Neurons with Local Lateral Inhibition

PubMed Central

Bill, Johannes; Buesing, Lars; Habenschuss, Stefan; Nessler, Bernhard; Maass, Wolfgang; Legenstein, Robert

2015-01-01

During the last decade, Bayesian probability theory has emerged as a framework in cognitive science and neuroscience for describing perception, reasoning and learning of mammals. However, our understanding of how probabilistic computations could be organized in the brain, and how the observed connectivity structure of cortical microcircuits supports these calculations, is rudimentary at best. In this study, we investigate statistical inference and self-organized learning in a spatially extended spiking network model, that accommodates both local competitive and large-scale associative aspects of neural information processing, under a unified Bayesian account. Specifically, we show how the spiking dynamics of a recurrent network with lateral excitation and local inhibition in response to distributed spiking input, can be understood as sampling from a variational posterior distribution of a well-defined implicit probabilistic model. This interpretation further permits a rigorous analytical treatment of experience-dependent plasticity on the network level. Using machine learning theory, we derive update rules for neuron and synapse parameters which equate with Hebbian synaptic and homeostatic intrinsic plasticity rules in a neural implementation. In computer simulations, we demonstrate that the interplay of these plasticity rules leads to the emergence of probabilistic local experts that form distributed assemblies of similarly tuned cells communicating through lateral excitatory connections. The resulting sparse distributed spike code of a well-adapted network carries compressed information on salient input features combined with prior experience on correlations among them. Our theory predicts that the emergence of such efficient representations benefits from network architectures in which the range of local inhibition matches the spatial extent of pyramidal cells that share common afferent input. PMID:26284370

Supersonic projectile models for asynchronous shooter localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozick, Richard J.; Whipps, Gene T.; Ash, Joshua N.

2011-06-01

In this work we consider the localization of a gunshot using a distributed sensor network measuring time differences of arrival between a firearm's muzzle blast and the shockwave induced by a supersonic bullet. This so-called MB-SW approach is desirable because time synchronization is not required between the sensors, however it suffers from increased computational complexity and requires knowledge of the bullet's velocity at all points along its trajectory. While the actual velocity profile of a particular gunshot is unknown, one may use a parameterized model for the velocity profile and simultaneously fit the model and localize the shooter. In this paper we study efficient solutions for the localization problem and identify deceleration models that trade off localization accuracy and computational complexity. We also develop a statistical analysis that includes bias due to mismatch between the true and actual deceleration models and covariance due to additive noise.

A Local Scalable Distributed Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Large Peer-to-Peer Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhaduri, Kanishka; Srivastava, Ashok N.

2009-01-01

This paper offers a local distributed algorithm for expectation maximization in large peer-to-peer environments. The algorithm can be used for a variety of well-known data mining tasks in a distributed environment such as clustering, anomaly detection, target tracking to name a few. This technology is crucial for many emerging peer-to-peer applications for bioinformatics, astronomy, social networking, sensor networks and web mining. Centralizing all or some of the data for building global models is impractical in such peer-to-peer environments because of the large number of data sources, the asynchronous nature of the peer-to-peer networks, and dynamic nature of the data/network. The distributed algorithm we have developed in this paper is provably-correct i.e. it converges to the same result compared to a similar centralized algorithm and can automatically adapt to changes to the data and the network. We show that the communication overhead of the algorithm is very low due to its local nature. This monitoring algorithm is then used as a feedback loop to sample data from the network and rebuild the model when it is outdated. We present thorough experimental results to verify our theoretical claims.

Local-world and cluster-growing weighted networks with controllable clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chun-Xia; Tang, Min-Xuan; Tang, Hai-Qiang; Deng, Qiang-Qiang

2014-12-01

We constructed an improved weighted network model by introducing local-world selection mechanism and triangle coupling mechanism based on the traditional BBV model. The model gives power-law distributions of degree, strength and edge weight and presents the linear relationship both between the degree and strength and between the degree and the clustering coefficient. Particularly, the model is equipped with an ability to accelerate the speed increase of strength exceeding that of degree. Besides, the model is more sound and efficient in tuning clustering coefficient than the original BBV model. Finally, based on our improved model, we analyze the virus spread process and find that reducing the size of local-world has a great inhibited effect on virus spread.

A low-altitude mountain range as an important refugium for two narrow endemics in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Keppel, Gunnar; Robinson, Todd P; Wardell-Johnson, Grant W; Yates, Colin J; Van Niel, Kimberly P; Byrne, Margaret; Schut, Antonius G T

2017-01-01

Low-altitude mountains constitute important centres of diversity in landscapes with little topographic variation, such as the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). They also provide unique climatic and edaphic conditions that may allow them to function as refugia. We investigate whether the Porongurups (altitude 655 m) in the SWAFR will provide a refugium for the endemic Ornduffia calthifolia and O. marchantii under forecast climate change. We used species distribution modelling based on WorldClim climatic data, 30-m elevation data and a 2-m-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) to predict current and future distributions of the Ornduffia species at local and regional scales based on 605 field-based abundance estimates. Future distributions were forecast using RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 projections. To determine whether local edaphic and biotic factors impact these forecasts, we tested whether soil depth and vegetation height were significant predictors of abundance using generalized additive models (GAMs). Species distribution modelling revealed the importance of elevation and topographic variables at the local scale for determining distributions of both species, which also preferred shadier locations and higher slopes. However, O. calthifolia occurred at higher (cooler) elevations with rugged, concave topography, while O. marchantii occurred in disturbed sites at lower locations with less rugged, convex topography. Under future climates both species are likely to severely contract under the milder RCP2.6 projection (approx. 2 °C of global warming), but are unlikely to persist if warming is more severe (RCP4.5). GAMs showed that soil depth and vegetation height are important predictors of O. calthifolia and O. marchantii distributions, respectively. The Porongurups constitute an important refugium for O. calthifolia and O. marchantii, but limits to this capacity may be reached if global warming exceeds 2 °C. This capacity is moderated at local scales by biotic and edaphic factors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An extended continuous estimation of distribution algorithm for solving the permutation flow-shop scheduling problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Zhongshi; Pi, Dechang; Shao, Weishi

2017-11-01

This article proposes an extended continuous estimation of distribution algorithm (ECEDA) to solve the permutation flow-shop scheduling problem (PFSP). In ECEDA, to make a continuous estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) suitable for the PFSP, the largest order value rule is applied to convert continuous vectors to discrete job permutations. A probabilistic model based on a mixed Gaussian and Cauchy distribution is built to maintain the exploration ability of the EDA. Two effective local search methods, i.e. revolver-based variable neighbourhood search and Hénon chaotic-based local search, are designed and incorporated into the EDA to enhance the local exploitation. The parameters of the proposed ECEDA are calibrated by means of a design of experiments approach. Simulation results and comparisons based on some benchmark instances show the efficiency of the proposed algorithm for solving the PFSP.

Integrating multiple distribution models to guide conservation efforts of an endangered toad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Treglia, Michael L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models are used for numerous purposes such as predicting changes in species’ ranges and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Although implications of distribution models for conservation are often implicit, few studies use these tools explicitly to inform conservation efforts. Herein, we illustrate how multiple distribution models developed using distinct sets of environmental variables can be integrated to aid in identification sites for use in conservation. We focus on the endangered arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus), which relies on open, sandy streams and surrounding floodplains in southern California, USA, and northern Baja California, Mexico. Declines of the species are largely attributed to habitat degradation associated with vegetation encroachment, invasive predators, and altered hydrologic regimes. We had three main goals: 1) develop a model of potential habitat for arroyo toads, based on long-term environmental variables and all available locality data; 2) develop a model of the species’ current habitat by incorporating recent remotely-sensed variables and only using recent locality data; and 3) integrate results of both models to identify sites that may be employed in conservation efforts. We used a machine learning technique, Random Forests, to develop the models, focused on riparian zones in southern California. We identified 14.37% and 10.50% of our study area as potential and current habitat for the arroyo toad, respectively. Generally, inclusion of remotely-sensed variables reduced modeled suitability of sites, thus many areas modeled as potential habitat were not modeled as current habitat. We propose such sites could be made suitable for arroyo toads through active management, increasing current habitat by up to 67.02%. Our general approach can be employed to guide conservation efforts of virtually any species with sufficient data necessary to develop appropriate distribution models.

Distributed Tracking in Distributed Sensor Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-05-26

Glocal Track 6-17 6-12: Case II: Initial Glocal Track 6-18 6-13: Local Tracking Results with Multiple Model Approach 6-19 6-14: Model Probability History...3480.0- 2290.0e iee. onee -5800 -4600.8 -3400.8 -2208.8 -1886 X (Mi) Figure 6-11: Case 1: Initial Glocal Track 6-17 460. 420. 38 . 3488.9 1st 3498.9

High Reynolds number analysis of flat plate and separated afterbody flow using non-linear turbulence models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, John R.

1996-01-01

The ability of the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes method, PAB3D, to simulate the effect of Reynolds number variation using non-linear explicit algebraic Reynolds stress turbulence modeling was assessed. Subsonic flat plate boundary-layer flow parameters such as normalized velocity distributions, local and average skin friction, and shape factor were compared with DNS calculations and classical theory at various local Reynolds numbers up to 180 million. Additionally, surface pressure coefficient distributions and integrated drag predictions on an axisymmetric nozzle afterbody were compared with experimental data from 10 to 130 million Reynolds number. The high Reynolds data was obtained from the NASA Langley 0.3m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. There was generally good agreement of surface static pressure coefficients between the CFD and measurement. The change in pressure coefficient distributions with varying Reynolds number was similar to the experimental data trends, though slightly over-predicting the effect. The computational sensitivity of viscous modeling and turbulence modeling are shown. Integrated afterbody pressure drag was typically slightly lower than the experimental data. The change in afterbody pressure drag with Reynolds number was small both experimentally and computationally, even though the shape of the distribution was somewhat modified with Reynolds number.

Inferring Spatial Variations of Microstructural Properties from Macroscopic Mechanical Response

PubMed Central

Liu, Tengxiao; Hall, Timothy J.; Barbone, Paul E.; Oberai, Assad A.

2016-01-01

Disease alters tissue microstructure, which in turn affects the macroscopic mechanical properties of tissue. In elasticity imaging, the macroscopic response is measured and is used to infer the spatial distribution of the elastic constitutive parameters. When an empirical constitutive model is used these parameters cannot be linked to the microstructure. However, when the constitutive model is derived from a microstructural representation of the material, it allows for the possibility of inferring the local averages of the spatial distribution of the microstructural parameters. This idea forms the basis of this study. In particular, we first derive a constitutive model by homogenizing the mechanical response of a network of elastic, tortuous fibers. Thereafter, we use this model in an inverse problem to determine the spatial distribution of the microstructural parameters. We solve the inverse problem as a constrained minimization problem, and develop efficient methods for solving it. We apply these methods to displacement fields obtained by deforming gelatin-agar co-gels, and determine the spatial distribution of agar concentration and fiber tortuosity, thereby demonstrating that it is possible to image local averages of microstructural parameters from macroscopic measurements of deformation. PMID:27655420

Black Plane Solutions and Localized Gravitational Energy

PubMed Central

Roberts, Jennifer

2015-01-01

We explore the issue of gravitational energy localization for static plane-symmetric solutions of the Einstein-Maxwell equations in 3+1 dimensions with asymptotic anti-de Sitter behavior. We apply three different energy-momentum complexes, the Einstein, Landau-Lifshitz, and Møller prescriptions, to the metric representing this category of solutions and determine the energy distribution for each. We find that the three prescriptions offer identical energy distributions, suggesting their utility for this type of model. PMID:27347499

Hybrid-view programming of nuclear fusion simulation code in the PGAS parallel programming language XcalableMP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsugane, Keisuke; Boku, Taisuke; Murai, Hitoshi

Recently, the Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) parallel programming model has emerged as a usable distributed memory programming model. XcalableMP (XMP) is a PGAS parallel programming language that extends base languages such as C and Fortran with directives in OpenMP-like style. XMP supports a global-view model that allows programmers to define global data and to map them to a set of processors, which execute the distributed global data as a single thread. In XMP, the concept of a coarray is also employed for local-view programming. In this study, we port Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code - Princeton (GTC-P), which is a three-dimensionalmore » gyrokinetic PIC code developed at Princeton University to study the microturbulence phenomenon in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, to XMP as an example of hybrid memory model coding with the global-view and local-view programming models. In local-view programming, the coarray notation is simple and intuitive compared with Message Passing Interface (MPI) programming while the performance is comparable to that of the MPI version. Thus, because the global-view programming model is suitable for expressing the data parallelism for a field of grid space data, we implement a hybrid-view version using a global-view programming model to compute the field and a local-view programming model to compute the movement of particles. Finally, the performance is degraded by 20% compared with the original MPI version, but the hybrid-view version facilitates more natural data expression for static grid space data (in the global-view model) and dynamic particle data (in the local-view model), and it also increases the readability of the code for higher productivity.« less

Hybrid-view programming of nuclear fusion simulation code in the PGAS parallel programming language XcalableMP

DOE PAGES

Tsugane, Keisuke; Boku, Taisuke; Murai, Hitoshi; ...

2016-06-01

Recently, the Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) parallel programming model has emerged as a usable distributed memory programming model. XcalableMP (XMP) is a PGAS parallel programming language that extends base languages such as C and Fortran with directives in OpenMP-like style. XMP supports a global-view model that allows programmers to define global data and to map them to a set of processors, which execute the distributed global data as a single thread. In XMP, the concept of a coarray is also employed for local-view programming. In this study, we port Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code - Princeton (GTC-P), which is a three-dimensionalmore » gyrokinetic PIC code developed at Princeton University to study the microturbulence phenomenon in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, to XMP as an example of hybrid memory model coding with the global-view and local-view programming models. In local-view programming, the coarray notation is simple and intuitive compared with Message Passing Interface (MPI) programming while the performance is comparable to that of the MPI version. Thus, because the global-view programming model is suitable for expressing the data parallelism for a field of grid space data, we implement a hybrid-view version using a global-view programming model to compute the field and a local-view programming model to compute the movement of particles. Finally, the performance is degraded by 20% compared with the original MPI version, but the hybrid-view version facilitates more natural data expression for static grid space data (in the global-view model) and dynamic particle data (in the local-view model), and it also increases the readability of the code for higher productivity.« less

Dispersal leads to spatial autocorrelation in species distributions: A simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; Krohn, W.B.; O'Connor, R.J.

2008-01-01

Compared to population growth regulated by local conditions, dispersal has been underappreciated as a central process shaping the spatial distribution of populations. This paper asks: (a) which conditions increase the importance of dispersers relative to local recruits in determining population sizes? and (b) how does dispersal influence the spatial distribution patterns of abundances among connected populations? We approached these questions with a simulation model of populations on a coupled lattice with cells of continuously varying habitat quality expressed as carrying capacities. Each cell contained a population with the basic dynamics of density-regulated growth, and was connected to other populations by immigration and emigration. The degree to which dispersal influenced the distribution of population sizes depended most strongly on the absolute amount of dispersal, and then on the potential population growth rate. Dispersal decaying in intensity with distance left close neighbours more alike in population size than distant populations, leading to an increase in spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distribution of species with low potential growth rates is more dependent on dispersal than that of species with high growth rates; therefore, distribution modelling for species with low growth rates requires particular attention to autocorrelation, and conservation management of these species requires attention to factors curtailing dispersal, such as fragmentation and dispersal barriers. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Equatorial distributions of energetic ion moments in Saturn's magnetosphere using Cassini/MIMI measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dialynas, K.; Roussos, E.; Regoli, L.; Paranicas, C.; Krimigis, S. M.; Kane, M.; Mitchell, D. G.; Hamilton, D. C.

2016-12-01

We use kappa distribution fits to combined Charge Energy Mass Spectrometer (CHEMS, 3 to 236 keV/e), Low Energy Magnetosphere Measurements System (LEMMS, 0.024 < E < 18 MeV), and Ion Neutral Camera (INCA, 5.2 to >220 keV for H+) proton and singly ionized energetic ion spectra to calculate the >20 keV energetic ion moments inside Saturn's magnetosphere. Using a realistic magnetic field model (Khurana et al. 2007) and data from the entire Cassini mission to date (2004-2016), we map the ion measurements to the equatorial plane and via the modeled kappa distribution spectra we produce the equatorial distributions of all ion integral moments, focusing on partial density, integral intensity, partial pressure, integral energy intensity; as well as the characteristic energy (EC=IE/In), Temperature and κ-index of these ions as a function of Local Time (00:00 to 24:00 hrs) and L-Shell (5-20). A modified version of the semi-empirical Roelof and Skinner [2000] model is then utilized to retrieve the equatorial H+ and O+ pressure, density and temperature in Saturn's magnetosphere in both local time and L-shell. We find that a) although the H+ and O+ partial pressures and densities are nearly comparable, the >20 keV protons have higher number and energy intensities at all radial distances (L>5) and local times; b) the 12

Distributed State Estimation Using a Modified Partitioned Moving Horizon Strategy for Power Systems.

PubMed

Chen, Tengpeng; Foo, Yi Shyh Eddy; Ling, K V; Chen, Xuebing

2017-10-11

In this paper, a distributed state estimation method based on moving horizon estimation (MHE) is proposed for the large-scale power system state estimation. The proposed method partitions the power systems into several local areas with non-overlapping states. Unlike the centralized approach where all measurements are sent to a processing center, the proposed method distributes the state estimation task to the local processing centers where local measurements are collected. Inspired by the partitioned moving horizon estimation (PMHE) algorithm, each local area solves a smaller optimization problem to estimate its own local states by using local measurements and estimated results from its neighboring areas. In contrast with PMHE, the error from the process model is ignored in our method. The proposed modified PMHE (mPMHE) approach can also take constraints on states into account during the optimization process such that the influence of the outliers can be further mitigated. Simulation results on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems verify that our method achieves comparable state estimation accuracy but with a significant reduction in the overall computation load.

A benders decomposition approach to multiarea stochastic distributed utility planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, Susan Ann

Until recently, small, modular generation and storage options---distributed resources (DRs)---have been installed principally in areas too remote for economic power grid connection and sensitive applications requiring backup capacity. Recent regulatory changes and DR advances, however, have lead utilities to reconsider the role of DRs. To a utility facing distribution capacity bottlenecks or uncertain load growth, DRs can be particularly valuable since they can be dispersed throughout the system and constructed relatively quickly. DR value is determined by comparing its costs to avoided central generation expenses (i.e., marginal costs) and distribution investments. This requires a comprehensive central and local planning and production model, since central system marginal costs result from system interactions over space and time. This dissertation develops and applies an iterative generalized Benders decomposition approach to coordinate models for optimal DR evaluation. Three coordinated models exchange investment, net power demand, and avoided cost information to minimize overall expansion costs. Local investment and production decisions are made by a local mixed integer linear program. Central system investment decisions are made by a LP, and production costs are estimated by a stochastic multi-area production costing model with Kirchhoff's Voltage and Current Law constraints. The nested decomposition is a new and unique method for distributed utility planning that partitions the variables twice to separate local and central investment and production variables, and provides upper and lower bounds on expected expansion costs. Kirchhoff's Voltage Law imposes nonlinear, nonconvex constraints that preclude use of LP if transmission capacity is available in a looped transmission system. This dissertation develops KVL constraint approximations that permit the nested decomposition to consider new transmission resources, while maintaining linearity in the three individual models. These constraints are presented as a heuristic for the given examples; future research will investigate conditions for convergence. A ten-year multi-area example demonstrates the decomposition approach and suggests the ability of DRs and new transmission to modify capacity additions and production costs by changing demand and power flows. Results demonstrate that DR and new transmission options may lead to greater capacity additions, but resulting production cost savings more than offset extra capacity costs.

Stage-specific distribution models can predict eel (Anguilla anguilla) occurrence during settlement in coastal lagoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leone, C.; Zucchetta, M.; Capoccioni, F.; Gravina, M. F.; Franzoi, P.; Ciccotti, E.

2016-03-01

Eel (Anguilla anguilla) is a catadromous fish species typical of Mediterranean coastal lagoons, that currently suffers from several anthropogenic and natural impacts. These are thought to be the cause of a stock-wide decline that this panmictic species is facing, in inland and coastal waters of Europe and North Africa. The decline affects both adult phases and recruitment, i.e. glass eel arrival to coastal waters and their ascent to inland waters. Quantitative features of eel recruitment reflect a transoceanic global scale, but also depend on local environmental conditions, the latter also affecting settlement dynamics in transitional waters. There is only little information on the dynamics of these two processes in coastal lagoons, notwithstanding the paramount importance of both in sustaining local stocks abundance and their demographic structure for this typical but also economically important inhabitant of Mediterranean lagoons, habitats that constitute an important share of the eel distribution area. The present study aims, therefore, to clarify space and time dynamics of local scale recruitment and of settlement in a coastal lagoon in the Mediterranean area, also by setting up a specific methodological approach. For this purpose, data from field surveys in combination with Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used in order to relate distribution of eel juvenile stages to the environmental conditions within the lagoon. Specifically, models were calibrated to quantify the relationship between presence of juvenile eel and the main environmental drivers, with the aim of identifying potential habitats for eel settlement within the lagoon. Results gained by modelling suggest certain spatial and temporal colonization patterns for the juvenile eel in the Fogliano lagoon, a typical Mediterranean coastal lake. The modelling approach has therefore proved to be a useful tool for predicting habitats for eel recruitment at the local scale and settlement, because adequate to catch the spatio-temporal dimensions of the processes under study, in coastal lagoon habitats.

Improving the Fitness of High-Dimensional Biomechanical Models via Data-Driven Stochastic Exploration

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Carlos D.; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J.

2010-01-01

The field of complex biomechanical modeling has begun to rely on Monte Carlo techniques to investigate the effects of parameter variability and measurement uncertainty on model outputs, search for optimal parameter combinations, and define model limitations. However, advanced stochastic methods to perform data-driven explorations, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), become necessary as the number of model parameters increases. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility and, what to our knowledge is, the first use of an MCMC approach to improve the fitness of realistically large biomechanical models. We used a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to search increasingly complex parameter landscapes (3, 8, 24, and 36 dimensions) to uncover underlying distributions of anatomical parameters of a “truth model” of the human thumb on the basis of simulated kinematic data (thumbnail location, orientation, and linear and angular velocities) polluted by zero-mean, uncorrelated multivariate Gaussian “measurement noise.” Driven by these data, ten Markov chains searched each model parameter space for the subspace that best fit the data (posterior distribution). As expected, the convergence time increased, more local minima were found, and marginal distributions broadened as the parameter space complexity increased. In the 36-D scenario, some chains found local minima but the majority of chains converged to the true posterior distribution (confirmed using a cross-validation dataset), thus demonstrating the feasibility and utility of these methods for realistically large biomechanical problems. PMID:19272906

Improved locality of the phase-field lattice-Boltzmann model for immiscible fluids at high density ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhari, Abbas; Mitchell, Travis; Leonardi, Christopher; Bolster, Diogo

2017-11-01

Based on phase-field theory, we introduce a robust lattice-Boltzmann equation for modeling immiscible multiphase flows at large density and viscosity contrasts. Our approach is built by modifying the method proposed by Zu and He [Phys. Rev. E 87, 043301 (2013), 10.1103/PhysRevE.87.043301] in such a way as to improve efficiency and numerical stability. In particular, we employ a different interface-tracking equation based on the so-called conservative phase-field model, a simplified equilibrium distribution that decouples pressure and velocity calculations, and a local scheme based on the hydrodynamic distribution functions for calculation of the stress tensor. In addition to two distribution functions for interface tracking and recovery of hydrodynamic properties, the only nonlocal variable in the proposed model is the phase field. Moreover, within our framework there is no need to use biased or mixed difference stencils for numerical stability and accuracy at high density ratios. This not only simplifies the implementation and efficiency of the model, but also leads to a model that is better suited to parallel implementation on distributed-memory machines. Several benchmark cases are considered to assess the efficacy of the proposed model, including the layered Poiseuille flow in a rectangular channel, Rayleigh-Taylor instability, and the rise of a Taylor bubble in a duct. The numerical results are in good agreement with available numerical and experimental data.

Anomalous Anderson localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Wenji

2000-04-01

We propose a generalized Anderson model and study numerically the localization phenomena in one dimension. In our model, not all the sites take on-site random site energy. The on-site energy εn on the nth site is assigned as follows. If n+P-1=0 ( mod P) , where P is a positive integer, εn is assumed to be randomly distributed between - W/2 and W/2. On the other lattice sites, the site energy is fixed, say εn=0.The localization length ξ defined as | t| 2=e -2 L/ ξ, where t is the transmission coefficient, is calculated using the transfer matrix method. It is found that the single-electron states with wave vectors k= π/P, 2 π/P,…,(P-1) π/P are no longer localized as in the standard Anderson model. Compared with the smooth localization length spectrum of the Anderson model, there appear P-1 sharp peaks periodically located at P-1 values of wave vector on the localization length spectrum of the generalized Anderson model with parameter P.

Convection-enhanced delivery of SN-38-loaded polymeric micelles (NK012) enables consistent distribution of SN-38 and is effective against rodent intracranial brain tumor models.

PubMed

Zhang, Rong; Saito, Ryuta; Mano, Yui; Sumiyoshi, Akira; Kanamori, Masayuki; Sonoda, Yukihiko; Kawashima, Ryuta; Tominaga, Teiji

2016-10-01

Convection-enhanced delivery (CED) of therapeutic agents is a promising local delivery technique that has been extensively studied as a treatment for CNS diseases over the last two decades. One continuing challenge of CED is accurate and consistent delivery of the agents to the target. The present study focused on a new type of therapeutic agent, NK012, a novel SN-38-loaded polymeric micelle. Local delivery profiles of NK012 and SN-38 were studied using rodent brain and intracranial rodent brain tumor models. First, the cytotoxicity of NK012 against glioma cell lines was determined in vitro. Proliferations of glioma cells were significantly reduced after exposure to NK012. Then, the distribution and local toxicity after CED delivery of NK012 and SN-38 were evaluated in vivo. Volume of distribution of NK012 after CED was much larger than that of SN-38. Histological examination revealed minimum brain tissue damage in rat brains after delivery of 40 µg NK012 but severe damage with SN-38 at the same dose. Subsequently, the efficacy of NK012 delivered via CED was tested in 9L and U87MG rodent orthotopic brain tumor models. CED of NK012 displayed excellent efficacy in the 9L and U87MG orthotopic brain tumor models. Furthermore, NK012 and gadolinium diamide were co-delivered via CED to monitor the NK012 distribution using MRI. Volume of NK012 distribution evaluated by histology and MRI showed excellent agreement. CED of NK012 represents an effective treatment option for malignant gliomas. MRI-guided CED of NK012 has potential for clinical application.

Myocardial Drug Distribution Generated from Local Epicardial Application: Potential Impact of Cardiac Capillary Perfusion in a Swine Model Using Epinephrine

PubMed Central

Maslov, Mikhail Y.; Edelman, Elazer R.; Pezone, Matthew J.; Wei, Abraham E.; Wakim, Matthew G.; Murray, Michael R.; Tsukada, Hisashi; Gerogiannis, Iraklis S.; Groothuis, Adam; Lovich, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Prior studies in small mammals have shown that local epicardial application of inotropic compounds drives myocardial contractility without systemic side effects. Myocardial capillary blood flow, however, may be more significant in larger species than in small animals. We hypothesized that bulk perfusion in capillary beds of the large mammalian heart enhances drug distribution after local release, but also clears more drug from the tissue target than in small animals. Epicardial (EC) drug releasing systems were used to apply epinephrine to the anterior surface of the left heart of swine in either point-sourced or distributed configurations. Following local application or intravenous (IV) infusion at the same dose rates, hemodynamic responses, epinephrine levels in the coronary sinus and systemic circulation, and drug deposition across the ventricular wall, around the circumference and down the axis, were measured. EC delivery via point-source release generated transmural epinephrine gradients directly beneath the site of application extending into the middle third of the myocardial thickness. Gradients in drug deposition were also observed down the length of the heart and around the circumference toward the lateral wall, but not the interventricular septum. These gradients extended further than might be predicted from simple diffusion. The circumferential distribution following local epinephrine delivery from a distributed source to the entire anterior wall drove drug toward the inferior wall, further than with point-source release, but again, not to the septum. This augmented drug distribution away from the release source, down the axis of the left ventricle, and selectively towards the left heart follows the direction of capillary perfusion away from the anterior descending and circumflex arteries, suggesting a role for the coronary circulation in determining local drug deposition and clearance. The dominant role of the coronary vasculature is further suggested by the elevated drug levels in the coronary sinus effluent. Indeed, plasma levels, hemodynamic responses, and myocardial deposition remote from the point of release were similar following local EC or IV delivery. Therefore, the coronary vasculature shapes the pharmacokinetics of local myocardial delivery of small catecholamine drugs in large animal models. Optimal design of epicardial drug delivery systems must consider the underlying bulk capillary perfusion currents within the tissue to deliver drug to tissue targets and may favor therapeutic molecules with better potential retention in myocardial tissue. PMID:25234821

Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora) in Ethiopia’s Afar region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luizza, Matthew; Wakie, Tewodros; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine) in Ethiopia’s Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80) and the final model (test AUC = 0.96). Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local ecological knowledge with species distribution modeling for early detection and targeted surveying of recently established invasive species.

The neglected nonlocal effects of deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, Johannes; Reick, Christian; Pongratz, Julia

2017-04-01

Deforestation changes surface temperature locally via biogeophysical effects by changing the water, energy and momentum balance. Adding to these locally induced changes (local effects), deforestation at a given location can cause changes in temperature elsewhere (nonlocal effects). Most previous studies have not considered local and nonlocal effects separately, but investigated the total (local plus nonlocal) effects, for which global deforestation was found to cause a global mean cooling. Recent modeling and observational studies focused on the isolated local effects: The local effects are relevant for local living conditions, and they can be obtained from in-situ and satellite observations. Observational studies suggest that the local effects of potential deforestation cause a warming when averaged globally. This contrast between local warming and total cooling indicates that the nonlocal effects of deforestation are causing a cooling and thus counteract the local effects. It is still unclear how the nonlocal effects depend on the spatial scale of deforestation, and whether they still compensate the local warming in a more realistic spatial distribution of deforestation. To investigate this, we use a fully coupled climate model and separate local and nonlocal effects of deforestation in three steps: Starting from a forest world, we simulate deforestation in one out of four grid boxes using a regular spatial pattern and increase the number of deforestation grid boxes step-wise up to three out of four boxes in subsequent simulations. To compare these idealized spatial distributions of deforestation to a more realistic case, we separate local and nonlocal effects in a simulation where deforestation is applied in regions where it occurred historically. We find that the nonlocal effects scale nearly linearly with the number of deforested grid boxes, and the spatial distribution of the nonlocal effects is similar for the regular spatial distribution of deforestation and the more realistic pattern. Globally averaged, the deforestation-induced warming of the local effects is counteracted by the nonlocal effects, which are about three times as strong as the local effects (up to 0.1K local warming versus -0.3K nonlocal cooling). Thus, the nonlocal effects are more cooling than the local effects are warming, and this is valid not only for idealized simulations of large-scale deforestation, but also for a more realistic deforestation scenario. We conclude that the local effects of deforestation only yield an incomplete picture of the total climate effects by biogeophysical pathways. While the local effects capture the direct climatic response at the site of deforestation, the nonlocal effects have to be included if the biogeophysical effects of deforestation are considered for an implementation in climate policies.

Linking parasite populations in hosts to parasite populations in space through Taylor's law and the negative binomial distribution

PubMed Central

Poulin, Robert; Lagrue, Clément

2017-01-01

The spatial distribution of individuals of any species is a basic concern of ecology. The spatial distribution of parasites matters to control and conservation of parasites that affect human and nonhuman populations. This paper develops a quantitative theory to predict the spatial distribution of parasites based on the distribution of parasites in hosts and the spatial distribution of hosts. Four models are tested against observations of metazoan hosts and their parasites in littoral zones of four lakes in Otago, New Zealand. These models differ in two dichotomous assumptions, constituting a 2 × 2 theoretical design. One assumption specifies whether the variance function of the number of parasites per host individual is described by Taylor's law (TL) or the negative binomial distribution (NBD). The other assumption specifies whether the numbers of parasite individuals within each host in a square meter of habitat are independent or perfectly correlated among host individuals. We find empirically that the variance–mean relationship of the numbers of parasites per square meter is very well described by TL but is not well described by NBD. Two models that posit perfect correlation of the parasite loads of hosts in a square meter of habitat approximate observations much better than two models that posit independence of parasite loads of hosts in a square meter, regardless of whether the variance–mean relationship of parasites per host individual obeys TL or NBD. We infer that high local interhost correlations in parasite load strongly influence the spatial distribution of parasites. Local hotspots could influence control and conservation of parasites. PMID:27994156

Charge distributions and correlations in fragmentation models for soft hadron collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wolf, E. A.

1984-03-01

Data on charge distributions and charge correlations in pp and meson-proton interactions at PS and SPS energies are successfully compared with the Lund fragmentation model for low- P T hadron collisions. It is argued that local conservation of quantum numbers and resonance production, as implemented in fragmentation models, are sufficient ingredients to explain most of the available experimental results at these energies. No necessity is found for dual-sheet contributions considered in DTU-based parton models.

QCD Sum Rules and Models for Generalized Parton Distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anatoly Radyushkin

2004-10-01

I use QCD sum rule ideas to construct models for generalized parton distributions. To this end, the perturbative parts of QCD sum rules for the pion and nucleon electromagnetic form factors are interpreted in terms of GPDs and two models are discussed. One of them takes the double Borel transform at adjusted value of the Borel parameter as a model for nonforward parton densities, and another is based on the local duality relation. Possible ways of improving these Ansaetze are briefly discussed.

Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

2012-01-01

Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

Using occupancy modeling and logistic regression to assess the distribution of shrimp species in lowland streams, Costa Rica: Does regional groundwater create favorable habitat?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, Marcia; Freeman, Mary C.; Purucker, S. Thomas; Pringle, Catherine M.

2016-01-01

Freshwater shrimps are an important biotic component of tropical ecosystems. However, they can have a low probability of detection when abundances are low. We sampled 3 of the most common freshwater shrimp species, Macrobrachium olfersii, Macrobrachium carcinus, and Macrobrachium heterochirus, and used occupancy modeling and logistic regression models to improve our limited knowledge of distribution of these cryptic species by investigating both local- and landscape-scale effects at La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica. Local-scale factors included substrate type and stream size, and landscape-scale factors included presence or absence of regional groundwater inputs. Capture rates for 2 of the sampled species (M. olfersii and M. carcinus) were sufficient to compare the fit of occupancy models. Occupancy models did not converge for M. heterochirus, but M. heterochirus had high enough occupancy rates that logistic regression could be used to model the relationship between occupancy rates and predictors. The best-supported models for M. olfersii and M. carcinus included conductivity, discharge, and substrate parameters. Stream size was positively correlated with occupancy rates of all 3 species. High stream conductivity, which reflects the quantity of regional groundwater input into the stream, was positively correlated with M. olfersii occupancy rates. Boulder substrates increased occupancy rate of M. carcinus and decreased the detection probability of M. olfersii. Our models suggest that shrimp distribution is driven by factors that function at local (substrate and discharge) and landscape (conductivity) scales.

Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.

2015-12-01

Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

Applying a New Model for Sharing Population Health Data to National Syndromic Influenza Surveillance: DiSTRIBuTE Project Proof of Concept, 2006 to 2009.

PubMed

Olson, Donald R; Paladini, Marc; Lober, William B; Buckeridge, David L

2011-08-02

The Distributed Surveillance Taskforce for Real-time Influenza Burden Tracking and Evaluation (DiSTRIBuTE) project began as a pilot effort initiated by the International Society for Disease Surveillance (ISDS) in autumn 2006 to create a collaborative electronic emergency department (ED) syndromic influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance network based on existing state and local systems and expertise. DiSTRIBuTE brought together health departments that were interested in: 1) sharing aggregate level data; 2) maintaining jurisdictional control; 3) minimizing barriers to participation; and 4) leveraging the flexibility of local systems to create a dynamic and collaborative surveillance network. This approach was in contrast to the prevailing paradigm for surveillance where record level information was collected, stored and analyzed centrally. The DiSTRIBuTE project was created with a distributed design, where individual level data remained local and only summarized, stratified counts were reported centrally, thus minimizing privacy risks. The project was responsive to federal mandates to improve integration of federal, state, and local biosurveillance capabilities. During the proof of concept phase, 2006 to 2009, ten jurisdictions from across North America sent ISDS on a daily to weekly basis year-round, aggregated data by day, stratified by local ILI syndrome, age-group and region. During this period, data from participating U.S. state or local health departments captured over 13% of all ED visits nationwide. The initiative focused on state and local health department trust, expertise, and control. Morbidity trends observed in DiSTRIBuTE were highly correlated with other influenza surveillance measures. With the emergence of novel A/H1N1 influenza in the spring of 2009, the project was used to support information sharing and ad hoc querying at the state and local level. In the fall of 2009, through a broadly collaborative effort, the project was expanded to enhance electronic ED surveillance nationwide.

A survey of kernel-type estimators for copula and their applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumarjaya, I. W.

2017-10-01

Copulas have been widely used to model nonlinear dependence structure. Main applications of copulas include areas such as finance, insurance, hydrology, rainfall to name but a few. The flexibility of copula allows researchers to model dependence structure beyond Gaussian distribution. Basically, a copula is a function that couples multivariate distribution functions to their one-dimensional marginal distribution functions. In general, there are three methods to estimate copula. These are parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric method. In this article we survey kernel-type estimators for copula such as mirror reflection kernel, beta kernel, transformation method and local likelihood transformation method. Then, we apply these kernel methods to three stock indexes in Asia. The results of our analysis suggest that, albeit variation in information criterion values, the local likelihood transformation method performs better than the other kernel methods.

Effect of nanoholes on the plasmonic properties of star nanostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Shaoli; Whittaker, Andrew K.; Blakey, Idriss

2011-12-01

The transmission and localized electric field distribution of nanostructures are the most important parameters in the plasmonic field for nano-optics and nanobiosensors. In this paper, we propose a novel nanostructure which may be used for nanobiosensor applications. The effect of nanoholes on the plasmonic properties of star nanostructure was studied via numerical simulation, using the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method. In the model, the material type and size of the nanostructures was fixed, but the distance between the monotor and the surface of the nanoholes was varied. For example, nanoholes were located in the center of the nanostructures. The simulation method was as follows. Initially, the wavelength of incident light was varied from 400 to 1200 nm and the transmission spectrum and the electric field distribution were simulated. Then at the resonance wavelength (wavelength where the transmission spectrum has a minimum), the localized electric field distribution was calculated at different distances from the surface of the nanostructures. This study shows that the position of nanoholes has a significant effect on the transmission and localized electric field distribution of star nanostructures. The condition for achieving the maximum localized electric field distribution can be used in nano-optics and nanobiosensors in the future.

The influence of climatic changes on distribution pattern of six typical Kobresia species in Tibetan Plateau based on MaxEnt model and geographic information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhongjun; Guo, Ke; Jin, Shulan; Pan, Huahua

2018-01-01

The issue that climatic change has great influence on species distribution is currently of great interest in field of biogeography. Six typical Kobresia species are selected from alpine grassland of Tibetan Plateau (TP) as research objects which are the high-quality forage for local husbandry, and their distribution changes are modeled in four periods by using MaxEnt model and GIS technology. The modeling results have shown that the distribution of these six typical Kobresia species in TP was strongly affected by two factors of "the annual precipitation" and "the precipitation in the wettest and driest quarters of the year". The modeling results have also shown that the most suitable habitats of K. pygmeae were located in the area around Qinghai Lake, the Hengduan-Himalayan mountain area, and the hinterland of TP. The most suitable habitats of K. humilis were mainly located in the area around Qinghai Lake and the hinterland of TP during the Last Interglacial period, and gradually merged into a bigger area; K. robusta and K. tibetica were located in the area around Qinghai Lake and the hinterland of TP, but they did not integrate into one area all the time, and K. capillifolia were located in the area around Qinghai Lake and extended to the southwest of the original distributing area, whereas K. macrantha were mainly distributed along the area of the Himalayan mountain chain, which had the smallest distribution area among them, and all these six Kobresia species can be divided into four types of "retreat/expansion" styles according to the changes of suitable habitat areas during the four periods; all these change styles are the result of long-term adaptations of the different species to the local climate changes in regions of TP and show the complexity of relationships between different species and climate. The research results have positive reference value to the protection of species diversity and sustainable development of the local husbandry in TP.

3D-Simulation Of Concentration Distributions Inside Large-Scale Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wischnewski, R.; Ratschow, L.; Hartge, E. U.; Werthe, J.

With increasing size of modern CFB combustors the lateral mixing of fuels and secondary air gains more and more importance. Strong concentration gradients, which result from improper lateral mixing, can lead to operational problems, high flue gas emissions and lower boiler efficiencies. A 3D-model for the simulation of local gas and solids concentrations inside industrial-sized CFB boilers has been developed. The model is based on a macroscopic approach and considers all major mechanisms during fuel spreading and subsequent combustion of char and volatiles. Typical characteristics of modern boilers like staged combustion, a smaller cross-sectional area in the lower section of the combustion chamber and the co-combustion of additional fuels with coal can be considered. The 252 MWth combustor of Stadtwerke Duisburg AG is used for the validation of the model. A comprehensive picture of the local conditions inside the combustion chamber is achieved by the combination of local gas measurements and the three-dimensional simulation of concentration distributions.

Adaptation, Growth, and Resilience in Biological Distribution Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronellenfitsch, Henrik; Katifori, Eleni

Highly optimized complex transport networks serve crucial functions in many man-made and natural systems such as power grids and plant or animal vasculature. Often, the relevant optimization functional is nonconvex and characterized by many local extrema. In general, finding the global, or nearly global optimum is difficult. In biological systems, it is believed that such an optimal state is slowly achieved through natural selection. However, general coarse grained models for flow networks with local positive feedback rules for the vessel conductivity typically get trapped in low efficiency, local minima. We show how the growth of the underlying tissue, coupled to the dynamical equations for network development, can drive the system to a dramatically improved optimal state. This general model provides a surprisingly simple explanation for the appearance of highly optimized transport networks in biology such as plant and animal vasculature. In addition, we show how the incorporation of spatially collective fluctuating sources yields a minimal model of realistic reticulation in distribution networks and thus resilience against damage.

Evolution de configurations de tourbillons avec les mêmes invariants globaux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bécu, Emilie; Pavlov, Vadim

2004-10-01

In this Note, we address the question of the evolution of a distribution of N identical localized vortices. Using direct numerical simulation, (here the Runge-Kutta scheme of order 4), together with the localized-vortices model, we show that different initial distributions of vorticity with identical integral invariants may exist. We show that the initial configurations with the same invariants may evolve to totally different quasi-final states. To cite this article: E. Bécu, V. Pavlov, C. R. Mecanique 332 (2004).

Spatial variation of fixed charge density in knee joint cartilage from sodium MRI - Implication on knee joint mechanics under static loading.

PubMed

Räsänen, Lasse P; Tanska, Petri; Mononen, Mika E; Lammentausta, Eveliina; Zbýň, Štefan; Venäläinen, Mikko S; Szomolanyi, Pavol; van Donkelaar, Corrinus C; Jurvelin, Jukka S; Trattnig, Siegfried; Nieminen, Miika T; Korhonen, Rami K

2016-10-03

The effects of fixed charge density (FCD) and cartilage swelling have not been demonstrated on cartilage mechanics on knee joint level before. In this study, we present how the spatial and local variations of FCD affects the mechanical response of the knee joint cartilage during standing (half of the body weight, 13 minutes) using finite element (FE) modeling. The FCD distribution of tibial cartilage of an asymptomatic subject was determined using sodium ( 23 Na) MRI at 7T and implemented into a 3-D FE-model of the knee joint (Subject-specific model, FCD: 0.18±0.08 mEq/ml). Tissue deformation in the Subject-specific model was validated against experimental, in vivo loading of the joint conducted with a MR-compatible compression device. For comparison, models with homogeneous FCD distribution (homogeneous model) and FCD distribution obtained from literature (literature model) were created. Immediately after application of the load (dynamic response), the variations in FCD had minor effects on cartilage stresses and strains. After 13 minutes of standing, the spatial and local variations in FCD had most influence on axial strains. In the superficial tibial cartilage in the Subject-specific model, axial strains were increased up to +13% due to smaller FCD (mean -11%), as compared to the homogeneous model. Compared to the literature model, those were decreased up to -18% due to greater FCD (mean +7%). The findings demonstrate that the spatial and local FCD variations in cartilage modulates strains in knee joint cartilage. Thereby, the results highlight the mechanical importance of site-specific content of proteoglycans in cartilage. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rakovec, O.; Hill, Mary C.; Clark, M.P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based “local” methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative “bucket-style” hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

Spatial ecological processes and local factors predict the distribution and abundance of spawning by steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) across a complex riverscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Jordan, Christopher E.; McNyset, Kris M.; Reeves, Gordon H.

2013-01-01

Processes that influence habitat selection in landscapes involve the interaction of habitat composition and configuration and are particularly important for species with complex life cycles. We assessed the relative influence of landscape spatial processes and local habitat characteristics on patterns in the distribution and abundance of spawning steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a threatened salmonid fish, across ~15,000 stream km in the John Day River basin, Oregon, USA. We used hurdle regression and a multi-model information theoretic approach to identify the relative importance of covariates representing key aspects of the steelhead life cycle (e.g., site access, spawning habitat quality, juvenile survival) at two spatial scales: within 2-km long survey reaches (local sites) and ecological neighborhoods (5 km) surrounding the local sites. Based on Akaike’s Information Criterion, models that included covariates describing ecological neighborhoods provided the best description of the distribution and abundance of steelhead spawning given the data. Among these covariates, our representation of offspring survival (growing-season-degree-days, °C) had the strongest effect size (7x) relative to other predictors. Predictive performances of model-averaged composite and neighborhood-only models were better than a site-only model based on both occurrence (percentage of sites correctly classified = 0.80±0.03 SD, 0.78±0.02 vs. 0.62±0.05, respectively) and counts (root mean square error = 3.37, 3.93 vs. 5.57, respectively). The importance of both temperature and stream flow for steelhead spawning suggest this species may be highly sensitive to impacts of land and water uses, and to projected climate impacts in the region and that landscape context, complementation, and connectivity will drive how this species responds to future environments.

Interconnecting heterogeneous database management systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gligor, V. D.; Luckenbaugh, G. L.

1984-01-01

It is pointed out that there is still a great need for the development of improved communication between remote, heterogeneous database management systems (DBMS). Problems regarding the effective communication between distributed DBMSs are primarily related to significant differences between local data managers, local data models and representations, and local transaction managers. A system of interconnected DBMSs which exhibit such differences is called a network of distributed, heterogeneous DBMSs. In order to achieve effective interconnection of remote, heterogeneous DBMSs, the users must have uniform, integrated access to the different DBMs. The present investigation is mainly concerned with an analysis of the existing approaches to interconnecting heterogeneous DBMSs, taking into account four experimental DBMS projects.

Topographic variations of water supply and plant hydraulics in a mountainous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, X.; Mackay, D. S.; Ewers, B. E.; Parsekian, A.; Sperry, J.; Beverly, D.; Speckman, H. N.; Ohara, N.; Fantello, N.; Kelleners, T.; Fullhart, A. T.

2017-12-01

How plants respond to variable local water supply in complex soil-topography systems is not clear although critical. This has been attributed to a lack of integrated models that can resolve relevant hydrological and physiological mechanisms and intensive field monitoring to inform/evaluate such a model. This research addresses these knowledge gaps by leveraging a newly developed distributed plant hydraulics model, ParFlow-TREES, and detailed geophysical and physiological measurements. Observations of sap flow, leaf water potentials, micrometeorology, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) are combined with the model to examine the key mechanisms affecting the spatial distribution of soil water and tree water stress. Modeling results showed higher soil water condition at bottom of the hillslope on average, corroborating the ERT-derived soil moisture observations. Hydraulic traits are critical to capture the sap flux dynamics of species with contrasting leaf water potential regulation strategies and heterogeneous soil drying at different hillslope positions. These results suggested the integrated effect of topography and plants on the evolvement of soil moisture distribution. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis demonstrated the importance of using distributed observations to validate/calibrate distributed models. Focusing on lumped variables or only one particular variable might give misleading conclusions. Co-located observations improve the characterization of plant traits and local living environment, providing key information needed as a first step in resolving the form and function of the critical zone from bedrock to atmosphere. We will discuss the broader implications and potential applications of this intensive data-model comparison at other sites and greater spatial extent.

Generative models for discovering sparse distributed representations.

PubMed Central

Hinton, G E; Ghahramani, Z

1997-01-01

We describe a hierarchical, generative model that can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of factor analysis and can be implemented in a neural network. The model uses bottom-up, top-down and lateral connections to perform Bayesian perceptual inference correctly. Once perceptual inference has been performed the connection strengths can be updated using a very simple learning rule that only requires locally available information. We demonstrate that the network learns to extract sparse, distributed, hierarchical representations. PMID:9304685

Shipping and natural environmental conditions determine the distribution of the invasive non-indigenous round goby Neogobius melanostomus in a regional sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotta, Jonne; Nurkse, Kristiina; Puntila, Riikka; Ojaveer, Henn

2016-02-01

Introductions of non-indigenous species (NIS) are considered a major threat to aquatic ecosystems worldwide. While it is valuable to know the distributions and ranges of NIS, predictive spatial models along different environmental gradients are more useful for management of these species. In this study we modelled how external drivers and local environmental conditions contribute to the spatial distribution of an invasive species using the distribution of the round goby Neogobius melanostomus in the Baltic Sea as an example. Using the collected distribution data, an updated map on the species distribution and its invasion progress in the Baltic Sea was produced. The current range of the round goby observations is extensive, covering all major sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. The most recent observations appeared in the northern regions (Northern Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Bothnia and the Gulf of Finland) and on the eastern and western coasts of southern Sweden. Modelling results show that the distribution of the round goby is primarily related to local abiotic hydrological conditions (wave exposure). Furthermore, the probability of round goby occurrence was very high in areas in close proximity to large cargo ports. This links patterns of the round goby distribution in the Baltic Sea to shipping traffic and suggests that human factors together with natural environmental conditions are responsible for the spread of NIS at a regional sea scale.

Evolution of specialization in resource utilization in structured metapopulations.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Geritz, Stefan; Parvinen, Kalle; Gyllenberg, Mats

2008-07-01

We study the evolution of resource utilization in a structured discrete-time metapopulation model with an infinite number of patches, prone to local catastrophes. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources available in different amounts in each patch. We analyse how the evolution of specialization in the utilization of the resources is affected by different ecological factors: migration, local growth, local catastrophes, forms of the trade-off and distribution of the resources in the patches. Our modelling approach offers a natural way to include more than two patch types into the models. This has not been usually possible in the previous spatially heterogeneous models focusing on the evolution of specialization.

3-D model-based tracking for UAV indoor localization.

PubMed

Teulière, Céline; Marchand, Eric; Eck, Laurent

2015-05-01

This paper proposes a novel model-based tracking approach for 3-D localization. One main difficulty of standard model-based approach lies in the presence of low-level ambiguities between different edges. In this paper, given a 3-D model of the edges of the environment, we derive a multiple hypotheses tracker which retrieves the potential poses of the camera from the observations in the image. We also show how these candidate poses can be integrated into a particle filtering framework to guide the particle set toward the peaks of the distribution. Motivated by the UAV indoor localization problem where GPS signal is not available, we validate the algorithm on real image sequences from UAV flights.

Models of primary runaway electron distribution in the runaway vortex regime

DOE PAGES

Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian-Zhu; McDevitt, Christopher J.

2017-11-01

Generation of runaway electrons (RE) beams can possibly induce the most deleterious effect of tokamak disruptions. A number of recent numerical calculations have confirmed the formation of a RE bump in their energy distribution by taking into account Synchrontron radiational damping force due to RE’s gyromotions. Here, we present a detailed examination on how the bump location changes at different pitch-angle and the characteristics of the RE pitch-angle distribution. Although REs moving along the magnetic field are preferably accelerated and then populate the phase-space of larger pitch-angle mainly through diffusions, an off-axis peak can still form due to the presencemore » of the vortex structure which causes accumulation of REs at low pitch-angle. A simplified Fokker- Planck model and its semi-analytical solutions based on local expansions around the O point is used to illustrate the characteristics of RE distribution around the O point of the runaway vortex in phase-space. The calculated energy location of the O point together with the local energy and pitch-angle distributions agree with the full numerical solution.« less

High-resolution imaging of selenium in kidneys: a localized selenium pool associated with glutathione peroxidase 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malinouski, M.; Kehr, S.; Finney, L.

2012-04-17

Recent advances in quantitative methods and sensitive imaging techniques of trace elements provide opportunities to uncover and explain their biological roles. In particular, the distribution of selenium in tissues and cells under both physiological and pathological conditions remains unknown. In this work, we applied high-resolution synchrotron X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to map selenium distribution in mouse liver and kidney. Liver showed a uniform selenium distribution that was dependent on selenocysteine tRNA{sup [Ser]Sec} and dietary selenium. In contrast, kidney selenium had both uniformly distributed and highly localized components, the latter visualized as thin circular structures surrounding proximal tubules. Other parts ofmore » the kidney, such as glomeruli and distal tubules, only manifested the uniformly distributed selenium pattern that co-localized with sulfur. We found that proximal tubule selenium localized to the basement membrane. It was preserved in Selenoprotein P knockout mice, but was completely eliminated in glutathione peroxidase 3 (GPx3) knockout mice, indicating that this selenium represented GPx3. We further imaged kidneys of another model organism, the naked mole rat, which showed a diminished uniformly distributed selenium pool, but preserved the circular proximal tubule signal. We applied XFM to image selenium in mammalian tissues and identified a highly localized pool of this trace element at the basement membrane of kidneys that was associated with GPx3. XFM allowed us to define and explain the tissue topography of selenium in mammalian kidneys at submicron resolution.« less

Ocean Tide Loading Computation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agnew, Duncan Carr

2005-01-01

September 15,2003 through May 15,2005 This grant funds the maintenance, updating, and distribution of programs for computing ocean tide loading, to enable the corrections for such loading to be more widely applied in space- geodetic and gravity measurements. These programs, developed under funding from the CDP and DOSE programs, incorporate the most recent global tidal models developed from Topex/Poscidon data, and also local tide models for regions around North America; the design of the algorithm and software makes it straightforward to combine local and global models.

Forecasting Distributional Responses of Limber Pine to Climate Change at Management-Relevant Scales in Rocky Mountain National Park

PubMed Central

Monahan, William B.; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

2013-01-01

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management. PMID:24391742

Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

2013-01-01

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2)) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management.

Recent Simulation Results on Ring Current Dynamics Using the Comprehensive Ring Current Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Zaharia, Sorin G.; Lui, Anthony T. Y.; Fok, Mei-Ching

2010-01-01

Plasma sheet conditions and electromagnetic field configurations are both crucial in determining ring current evolution and connection to the ionosphere. In this presentation, we investigate how different conditions of plasma sheet distribution affect ring current properties. Results include comparative studies in 1) varying the radial distance of the plasma sheet boundary; 2) varying local time distribution of the source population; 3) varying the source spectra. Our results show that a source located farther away leads to a stronger ring current than a source that is closer to the Earth. Local time distribution of the source plays an important role in determining both the radial and azimuthal (local time) location of the ring current peak pressure. We found that post-midnight source locations generally lead to a stronger ring current. This finding is in agreement with Lavraud et al.. However, our results do not exhibit any simple dependence of the local time distribution of the peak ring current (within the lower energy range) on the local time distribution of the source, as suggested by Lavraud et al. [2008]. In addition, we will show how different specifications of the magnetic field in the simulation domain affect ring current dynamics in reference to the 20 November 2007 storm, which include initial results on coupling the CRCM with a three-dimensional (3-D) plasma force balance code to achieve self-consistency in the magnetic field.

To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

2015-01-01

Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

The light-front gauge-invariant energy-momentum tensor

DOE PAGES

Lorce, Cedric

2015-08-11

In this study, we provide for the first time a complete parametrization for the matrix elements of the generic asymmetric, non-local and gauge-invariant canonical energy-momentum tensor, generalizing therefore former works on the symmetric, local and gauge-invariant kinetic energy-momentum tensor also known as the Belinfante-Rosenfeld energy-momentum tensor. We discuss in detail the various constraints imposed by non-locality, linear and angular momentum conservation. We also derive the relations with two-parton generalized and transverse-momentum dependent distributions, clarifying what can be learned from the latter. In particular, we show explicitly that two-parton transverse-momentum dependent distributions cannot provide any model-independent information about the parton orbitalmore » angular momentum. On the way, we recover the Burkardt sum rule and obtain similar new sum rules for higher-twist distributions.« less

Detailed Characterization of Local Field Potential Oscillations and Their Relationship to Spike Timing in the Antennal Lobe of the Moth Manduca sexta

PubMed Central

Daly, Kevin C.; Galán, Roberto F.; Peters, Oakland J.; Staudacher, Erich M.

2011-01-01

The transient oscillatory model of odor identity encoding seeks to explain how odorants with spatially overlapped patterns of input into primary olfactory networks can be discriminated. This model provides several testable predictions about the distributed nature of network oscillations and how they control spike timing. To test these predictions, 16 channel electrode arrays were placed within the antennal lobe (AL) of the moth Manduca sexta. Unitary spiking and multi site local field potential (LFP) recordings were made during spontaneous activity and in response to repeated presentations of an odor panel. We quantified oscillatory frequency, cross correlations between LFP recording sites, and spike–LFP phase relationships. We show that odor-driven AL oscillations in Manduca are frequency modulating (FM) from ∼100 to 30 Hz; this was odorant and stimulus duration dependent. FM oscillatory responses were localized to one or two recording sites suggesting a localized (perhaps glomerular) not distributed source. LFP cross correlations further demonstrated that only a small (r < 0.05) distributed and oscillatory component was present. Cross spectral density analysis demonstrated the frequency of these weakly distributed oscillations was state dependent (spontaneous activity = 25–55 Hz; odor-driven = 55–85 Hz). Surprisingly, vector strength analysis indicated that unitary phase locking of spikes to the LFP was strongest during spontaneous activity and dropped significantly during responses. Application of bicuculline, a GABAA receptor antagonist, significantly lowered the frequency content of odor-driven distributed oscillatory activity. Bicuculline significantly reduced spike phase locking generally, but the ubiquitous pattern of increased phase locking during spontaneous activity persisted. Collectively, these results indicate that oscillations perform poorly as a stimulus-mediated spike synchronizing mechanism for Manduca and hence are incongruent with the transient oscillatory model. PMID:22046161

Effect of the intra-layer potential distributions and spatial currents on the performance of graphene SymFETs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hasan, Mehdi; Sensale-Rodriguez, Berardi, E-mail: berardi.sensale@utah.edu

2015-09-15

In this paper, a two-dimensional (2-D) model for a graphene symmetric field effect transistor (SymFET), which considers (a) the intra-graphene layer potential distributions and (b) the internal current flows through the device, is presented and discussed. The local voltages along the graphene electrodes as well as the current-voltage characteristics of the device are numerically calculated based on a single-particle tunneling model. Our numerical results show that: (i) when the tunneling current is small, due to either a large tunneling thickness (≥ 2 atomic layers of BN) or a small coherence length, the voltage distributions along the graphene electrodes have almostmore » zero variations upon including these distributed effects, (ii) when the tunnel current is large, due to either a small tunneling thickness (∼ 1 atomic layer of BN) or due to a large coherence length, the local voltage distributions along the graphene electrodes become appreciable and the device behavior deviates from that predicted by a 1-D approximation. These effects, which are not captured in one-dimensional SymFET models, can provide a better understanding about the electron dynamics in the device and might indicate potential novel applications for this proposed device.« less

An Observationally-Centred Method to Quantify the Changing Shape of Local Temperature Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2014-12-01

For climate sensitive decisions and adaptation planning, guidance on how local climate is changing is needed at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impacts or policy endeavours. This requires the quantification of how the distributions of variables, such as daily temperature, are changing at specific quantiles. These temperature distributions are non-normal and vary both geographically and in time. We present a method[1,2] for analysing local climatic time series data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes. We have demonstrated this approach using the E-OBS gridded dataset[3] which consists of time series of local daily temperature across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. The change in temperature can be tracked at a temperature threshold, at a likelihood, or at a given return time, independently for each geographical location. Geographical correlations are thus an output of our method and reflect both climatic properties (local and synoptic), and spatial correlations inherent in the observation methodology. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. For instance, in a band from Northern France to Denmark the hottest days in the summer temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2°C over a 43 year period; over four times the global mean change over the same period. We discuss methods to quantify the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This approach also quantifies the level of detail at which one might wish to see agreement between climate models and observations if such models are to be used directly as tools to assess climate change impacts at local scales. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287. [2] D A Stainforth, S C Chapman, N W Watkins, 2013, Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [3] Haylock, M.R. et al., 2008, J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

Thermal-depth matching in dynamic scene based on affine projection and feature registration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongyu; Jia, Tong; Wu, Chengdong; Li, Yongqiang

2018-03-01

This paper aims to study the construction of 3D temperature distribution reconstruction system based on depth and thermal infrared information. Initially, a traditional calibration method cannot be directly used, because the depth and thermal infrared camera is not sensitive to the color calibration board. Therefore, this paper aims to design a depth and thermal infrared camera calibration board to complete the calibration of the depth and thermal infrared camera. Meanwhile a local feature descriptors in thermal and depth images is proposed. The belief propagation matching algorithm is also investigated based on the space affine transformation matching and local feature matching. The 3D temperature distribution model is built based on the matching of 3D point cloud and 2D thermal infrared information. Experimental results show that the method can accurately construct the 3D temperature distribution model, and has strong robustness.

Wind-tunnel investigation of aerodynamic loading on a 0.237-scale model of a remotely piloted research vehicle with a thick, high-aspect-ratio supercritical wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byrdsong, T. A.; Brooks, C. W., Jr.

1983-01-01

Wind-tunnel measurements were made of the wing-surface static-pressure distributions on a 0.237 scale model of a remotely piloted research vehicle equipped with a thick, high-aspect-ratio supercritical wing. Data are presented for two model configurations (with and without a ventral pod) at Mach numbers from 0.70 to 0.92 at angles of attack from -4 deg to 8 deg. Large variations of wing-surface local pressure distributions were developed; however, the characteristic supercritical-wing pressure distribution occurred near the design condition of 0.80 Mach number and 2 deg angle of attack. The significant variations of the local pressure distributions indicated pronounced shock-wave movements that were highly sensitive to angle of attack and Mach number. The effect of the vertical pod varied with test conditions; however at the higher Mach numbers, the effects on wing flow characteristics were significant at semispan stations as far outboard as 0.815. There were large variations of the wing loading in the range of test conditions, both model configurations exhibited a well-defined peak value of normal-force coefficient at the cruise angle of attack (2 deg) and Mach number (0.80).

MRI-Based Computational Model of Heterogeneous Tracer Transport following Local Infusion into a Mouse Hind Limb Tumor

PubMed Central

Magdoom, Kulam Najmudeen; Pishko, Gregory L.; Rice, Lori; Pampo, Chris; Siemann, Dietmar W.; Sarntinoranont, Malisa

2014-01-01

Systemic drug delivery to solid tumors involving macromolecular therapeutic agents is challenging for many reasons. Amongst them is their chaotic microvasculature which often leads to inadequate and uneven uptake of the drug. Localized drug delivery can circumvent such obstacles and convection-enhanced delivery (CED) - controlled infusion of the drug directly into the tissue - has emerged as a promising delivery method for distributing macromolecules over larger tissue volumes. In this study, a three-dimensional MR image-based computational porous media transport model accounting for realistic anatomical geometry and tumor leakiness was developed for predicting the interstitial flow field and distribution of albumin tracer following CED into the hind-limb tumor (KHT sarcoma) in a mouse. Sensitivity of the model to changes in infusion flow rate, catheter placement and tissue hydraulic conductivity were investigated. The model predictions suggest that 1) tracer distribution is asymmetric due to heterogeneous porosity; 2) tracer distribution volume varies linearly with infusion volume within the whole leg, and exponentially within the tumor reaching a maximum steady-state value; 3) infusion at the center of the tumor with high flow rates leads to maximum tracer coverage in the tumor with minimal leakage outside; and 4) increasing the tissue hydraulic conductivity lowers the tumor interstitial fluid pressure and decreases the tracer distribution volume within the whole leg and tumor. The model thus predicts that the interstitial fluid flow and drug transport is sensitive to porosity and changes in extracellular space. This image-based model thus serves as a potential tool for exploring the effects of transport heterogeneity in tumors. PMID:24619021

Mutual Dependence Between Sedimentary Organic Carbon and Infaunal Macrobenthos Resolved by Mechanistic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenyan; Wirtz, Kai

2017-10-01

The mutual dependence between sedimentary total organic carbon (TOC) and infaunal macrobenthos is here quantified by a mechanistic model. The model describes (i) the vertical distribution of infaunal macrobenthic biomass resulting from a trade-off between nutritional benefit (quantity and quality of TOC) and the costs of burial (respiration) and mortality, and (ii) the variable vertical distribution of TOC being in turn shaped by bioturbation of local macrobenthos. In contrast to conventional approaches, our model emphasizes variations of bioturbation both spatially and temporally depending on local food resources and macrobenthic biomass. Our implementation of the dynamic interaction between TOC and infaunal macrobenthos is able to capture a temporal benthic response to both depositional and erosional environments and provides improved estimates of the material exchange flux at the sediment-water interface. Applications to literature data for the North Sea demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of the model and its potential as an analysis tool for the status of TOC and macrobenthos in marine sediments. Results indicate that the vertical distribution of infaunal biomass is shaped by both the quantity and the quality of OC, while the community structure is determined only by the quality of OC. Bioturbation intensity may differ by 1 order of magnitude over different seasons owing to variations in the OC input, resulting in a significant modulation on the distribution of OC. Our relatively simple implementation may further improve models of early diagenesis and marine food web dynamics by mechanistically connecting the vertical distribution of both TOC and macrobenthic biomass.

Potential implications of the bystander effect on TCP and EUD when considering target volume dose heterogeneity.

PubMed

Balderson, Michael J; Kirkby, Charles

2015-01-01

In light of in vitro evidence suggesting that radiation-induced bystander effects may enhance non-local cell killing, there is potential for impact on radiotherapy treatment planning paradigms such as the goal of delivering a uniform dose throughout the clinical target volume (CTV). This work applies a bystander effect model to calculate equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and tumor control probability (TCP) for external beam prostate treatment and compares the results with a more common model where local response is dictated exclusively by local absorbed dose. The broad assumptions applied in the bystander effect model are intended to place an upper limit on the extent of the results in a clinical context. EUD and TCP of a prostate cancer target volume under conditions of increasing dose heterogeneity were calculated using two models: One incorporating bystander effects derived from previously published in vitro bystander data ( McMahon et al. 2012 , 2013a); and one using a common linear-quadratic (LQ) response that relies exclusively on local absorbed dose. Dose through the CTV was modelled as a normal distribution, where the degree of heterogeneity was then dictated by changing the standard deviation (SD). Also, a representative clinical dose distribution was examined as cold (low dose) sub-volumes were systematically introduced. The bystander model suggests a moderate degree of dose heterogeneity throughout a target volume will yield as good or better outcome compared to a uniform dose in terms of EUD and TCP. For a typical intermediate risk prostate prescription of 78 Gy over 39 fractions maxima in EUD and TCP as a function of increasing SD occurred at SD ∼ 5 Gy. The plots only dropped below the uniform dose values for SD ∼ 10 Gy, almost 13% of the prescribed dose. Small, but potentially significant differences in the outcome metrics between the models were identified in the clinically-derived dose distribution as cold sub-volumes were introduced. In terms of EUD and TCP, the bystander model demonstrates the potential to deviate from the common local LQ model predictions as dose heterogeneity through a prostate CTV varies. The results suggest, at least in a limiting sense, the potential for allowing some degree of dose heterogeneity within a CTV, although further investigation of the assumptions of the bystander model are warranted.

Working Memory and Decision-Making in a Frontoparietal Circuit Model

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Working memory (WM) and decision-making (DM) are fundamental cognitive functions involving a distributed interacting network of brain areas, with the posterior parietal cortex (PPC) and prefrontal cortex (PFC) at the core. However, the shared and distinct roles of these areas and the nature of their coordination in cognitive function remain poorly understood. Biophysically based computational models of cortical circuits have provided insights into the mechanisms supporting these functions, yet they have primarily focused on the local microcircuit level, raising questions about the principles for distributed cognitive computation in multiregional networks. To examine these issues, we developed a distributed circuit model of two reciprocally interacting modules representing PPC and PFC circuits. The circuit architecture includes hierarchical differences in local recurrent structure and implements reciprocal long-range projections. This parsimonious model captures a range of behavioral and neuronal features of frontoparietal circuits across multiple WM and DM paradigms. In the context of WM, both areas exhibit persistent activity, but, in response to intervening distractors, PPC transiently encodes distractors while PFC filters distractors and supports WM robustness. With regard to DM, the PPC module generates graded representations of accumulated evidence supporting target selection, while the PFC module generates more categorical responses related to action or choice. These findings suggest computational principles for distributed, hierarchical processing in cortex during cognitive function and provide a framework for extension to multiregional models. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Working memory and decision-making are fundamental “building blocks” of cognition, and deficits in these functions are associated with neuropsychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia. These cognitive functions engage distributed networks with prefrontal cortex (PFC) and posterior parietal cortex (PPC) at the core. It is not clear, however, what the contributions of PPC and PFC are in light of the computations that subserve working memory and decision-making. We constructed a biophysical model of a reciprocally connected frontoparietal circuit that revealed shared and distinct functions for the PFC and PPC across working memory and decision-making tasks. Our parsimonious model connects circuit-level properties to cognitive functions and suggests novel design principles beyond those of local circuits for cognitive processing in multiregional brain networks. PMID:29114071

Working Memory and Decision-Making in a Frontoparietal Circuit Model.

PubMed

Murray, John D; Jaramillo, Jorge; Wang, Xiao-Jing

2017-12-13

Working memory (WM) and decision-making (DM) are fundamental cognitive functions involving a distributed interacting network of brain areas, with the posterior parietal cortex (PPC) and prefrontal cortex (PFC) at the core. However, the shared and distinct roles of these areas and the nature of their coordination in cognitive function remain poorly understood. Biophysically based computational models of cortical circuits have provided insights into the mechanisms supporting these functions, yet they have primarily focused on the local microcircuit level, raising questions about the principles for distributed cognitive computation in multiregional networks. To examine these issues, we developed a distributed circuit model of two reciprocally interacting modules representing PPC and PFC circuits. The circuit architecture includes hierarchical differences in local recurrent structure and implements reciprocal long-range projections. This parsimonious model captures a range of behavioral and neuronal features of frontoparietal circuits across multiple WM and DM paradigms. In the context of WM, both areas exhibit persistent activity, but, in response to intervening distractors, PPC transiently encodes distractors while PFC filters distractors and supports WM robustness. With regard to DM, the PPC module generates graded representations of accumulated evidence supporting target selection, while the PFC module generates more categorical responses related to action or choice. These findings suggest computational principles for distributed, hierarchical processing in cortex during cognitive function and provide a framework for extension to multiregional models. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Working memory and decision-making are fundamental "building blocks" of cognition, and deficits in these functions are associated with neuropsychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia. These cognitive functions engage distributed networks with prefrontal cortex (PFC) and posterior parietal cortex (PPC) at the core. It is not clear, however, what the contributions of PPC and PFC are in light of the computations that subserve working memory and decision-making. We constructed a biophysical model of a reciprocally connected frontoparietal circuit that revealed shared and distinct functions for the PFC and PPC across working memory and decision-making tasks. Our parsimonious model connects circuit-level properties to cognitive functions and suggests novel design principles beyond those of local circuits for cognitive processing in multiregional brain networks. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/3712167-20$15.00/0.

Classification tree models for predicting distributions of michigan stream fish from landscape variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, P.J.; Zorn, T.G.; Seelbach, P.W.; Schaeffer, J.S.

2008-01-01

Traditionally, fish habitat requirements have been described from local-scale environmental variables. However, recent studies have shown that studying landscape-scale processes improves our understanding of what drives species assemblages and distribution patterns across the landscape. Our goal was to learn more about constraints on the distribution of Michigan stream fish by examining landscape-scale habitat variables. We used classification trees and landscape-scale habitat variables to create and validate presence-absence models and relative abundance models for Michigan stream fishes. We developed 93 presence-absence models that on average were 72% correct in making predictions for an independent data set, and we developed 46 relative abundance models that were 76% correct in making predictions for independent data. The models were used to create statewide predictive distribution and abundance maps that have the potential to be used for a variety of conservation and scientific purposes. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

The effects of small field dosimetry on the biological models used in evaluating IMRT dose distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardarelli, Gene A.

The primary goal in radiation oncology is to deliver lethal radiation doses to tumors, while minimizing dose to normal tissue. IMRT has the capability to increase the dose to the targets and decrease the dose to normal tissue, increasing local control, decrease toxicity and allow for effective dose escalation. This advanced technology does present complex dose distributions that are not easily verified. Furthermore, the dose inhomogeneity caused by non-uniform dose distributions seen in IMRT treatments has caused the development of biological models attempting to characterize the dose-volume effect in the response of organized tissues to radiation. Dosimetry of small fields can be quite challenging when measuring dose distributions for high-energy X-ray beams used in IMRT. The proper modeling of these small field distributions is essential in reproducing accurate dose for IMRT. This evaluation was conducted to quantify the effects of small field dosimetry on IMRT plan dose distributions and the effects on four biological model parameters. The four biological models evaluated were: (1) the generalized Equivalent Uniform Dose (gEUD), (2) the Tumor Control Probability (TCP), (3) the Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) and (4) the Probability of uncomplicated Tumor Control (P+). These models are used to estimate local control, survival, complications and uncomplicated tumor control. This investigation compares three distinct small field dose algorithms. Dose algorithms were created using film, small ion chamber, and a combination of ion chamber measurements and small field fitting parameters. Due to the nature of uncertainties in small field dosimetry and the dependence of biological models on dose volume information, this examination quantifies the effects of small field dosimetry techniques on radiobiological models and recommends pathways to reduce the errors in using these models to evaluate IMRT dose distributions. This study demonstrates the importance of valid physical dose modeling prior to the use of biological modeling. The success of using biological function data, such as hypoxia, in clinical IMRT planning will greatly benefit from the results of this study.

Local influence for generalized linear models with missing covariates.

PubMed

Shi, Xiaoyan; Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G

2009-12-01

In the analysis of missing data, sensitivity analyses are commonly used to check the sensitivity of the parameters of interest with respect to the missing data mechanism and other distributional and modeling assumptions. In this article, we formally develop a general local influence method to carry out sensitivity analyses of minor perturbations to generalized linear models in the presence of missing covariate data. We examine two types of perturbation schemes (the single-case and global perturbation schemes) for perturbing various assumptions in this setting. We show that the metric tensor of a perturbation manifold provides useful information for selecting an appropriate perturbation. We also develop several local influence measures to identify influential points and test model misspecification. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and real datasets are analyzed to illustrate the use of our local influence measures.

Magnetic moment distribution modeling in non stoichiometric Ni-Mn-Ga ferromagnetic shape memory alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lázpita, P.; Gutiérrez, J.; Barandiarán, J. M.; Chernenko, V. A.; Mondelli, C.; Chapon, L.

2014-11-01

Neutron polarized diffraction technique has been used to elucidate the magnetic moment distribution density in non stoichiometric Ni—Mn—Ga single crystals. These experiments allow us to determine a localized magnetic moment in the Mn position in the austenitic phase, and to validity qualitatively previous models of magnetic distributions where there are antiferromagnetic and ferromagnetic coupling for Mn atoms that are sited out of their properly positions. This measurements show the deep dependence of the magnetic moment with the composition and the atomic order.

A collisional-radiative model of iron vapour in a thermal arc plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baeva, M.; Uhrlandt, D.; Murphy, A. B.

2017-06-01

A collisional-radiative model for the ground state and fifty effective excited levels of atomic iron, and one level for singly-ionized iron, is set up for technological plasmas. Attention is focused on the population of excited states of atomic iron as a result of excitation, de-excitation, ionization, recombination and spontaneous emission. Effective rate coefficients for ionization and recombination, required in non-equilibrium plasma transport models, are also obtained. The collisional-radiative model is applied to a thermal arc plasma. Input parameters for the collisional-radiative model are provided by a magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a gas-metal welding arc, in which local thermodynamic equilibrium is assumed and the treatment of the transport of metal vapour is based on combined diffusion coefficients. The results clearly identify the conditions in the arc, under which the atomic state distribution satisfies the Boltzmann distribution, with an excitation temperature equal to the plasma temperature. These conditions are met in the central part of the arc, even though a local temperature minimum occurs here. This provides assurance that diagnostic methods based on local thermodynamic equilibrium, in particular those of optical emission spectroscopy, are reliable here. In contrast, deviations from the equilibrium atomic-state distribution are obtained in the near-electrode and arc fringe regions. As a consequence, the temperatures determined from the ratio of line intensities and number densities obtained from the emission coefficient in these regions are questionable. In this situation, the collisional-radiative model can be used as a diagnostic tool to assist in the interpretation of spectroscopic measurements.

Local SAR in Parallel Transmission Pulse Design

PubMed Central

Lee, Joonsung; Gebhardt, Matthias; Wald, Lawrence L.; Adalsteinsson, Elfar

2011-01-01

The management of local and global power deposition in human subjects (Specific Absorption Rate, SAR) is a fundamental constraint to the application of parallel transmission (pTx) systems. Even though the pTx and single channel have to meet the same SAR requirements, the complex behavior of the spatial distribution of local SAR for transmission arrays poses problems that are not encountered in conventional single-channel systems and places additional requirements on pTx RF pulse design. We propose a pTx pulse design method which builds on recent work to capture the spatial distribution of local SAR in numerical tissue models in a compressed parameterization in order to incorporate local SAR constraints within computation times that accommodate pTx pulse design during an in vivo MRI scan. Additionally, the algorithm yields a Protocol-specific Ultimate Peak in Local SAR (PUPiL SAR), which is shown to bound the achievable peak local SAR for a given excitation profile fidelity. The performance of the approach was demonstrated using a numerical human head model and a 7T eight-channel transmit array. The method reduced peak local 10g SAR by 14–66% for slice-selective pTx excitations and 2D selective pTx excitations compared to a pTx pulse design constrained only by global SAR. The primary tradeoff incurred for reducing peak local SAR was an increase in global SAR, up to 34% for the evaluated examples, which is favorable in cases where local SAR constraints dominate the pulse applications. PMID:22083594

Local yield stress statistics in model amorphous solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbot, Armand; Lerbinger, Matthias; Hernandez-Garcia, Anier; García-García, Reinaldo; Falk, Michael L.; Vandembroucq, Damien; Patinet, Sylvain

2018-03-01

We develop and extend a method presented by Patinet, Vandembroucq, and Falk [Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 045501 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.045501] to compute the local yield stresses at the atomic scale in model two-dimensional Lennard-Jones glasses produced via differing quench protocols. This technique allows us to sample the plastic rearrangements in a nonperturbative manner for different loading directions on a well-controlled length scale. Plastic activity upon shearing correlates strongly with the locations of low yield stresses in the quenched states. This correlation is higher in more structurally relaxed systems. The distribution of local yield stresses is also shown to strongly depend on the quench protocol: the more relaxed the glass, the higher the local plastic thresholds. Analysis of the magnitude of local plastic relaxations reveals that stress drops follow exponential distributions, justifying the hypothesis of an average characteristic amplitude often conjectured in mesoscopic or continuum models. The amplitude of the local plastic rearrangements increases on average with the yield stress, regardless of the system preparation. The local yield stress varies with the shear orientation tested and strongly correlates with the plastic rearrangement locations when the system is sheared correspondingly. It is thus argued that plastic rearrangements are the consequence of shear transformation zones encoded in the glass structure that possess weak slip planes along different orientations. Finally, we justify the length scale employed in this work and extract the yield threshold statistics as a function of the size of the probing zones. This method makes it possible to derive physically grounded models of plasticity for amorphous materials by directly revealing the relevant details of the shear transformation zones that mediate this process.

Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail.

PubMed

Woodin, Sarah A; Hilbish, Thomas J; Helmuth, Brian; Jones, Sierra J; Wethey, David S

2013-09-01

Modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions. However, models often fail when extended to new locales, and such instances have been used as evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. We explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments. We define the transient event margin (TEM) as the gap between energetic performance failure, defined as CTmax, and the upper lethal limit, defined as LTmax. If TEM is large relative to environmental fluctuations, models will likely fail in new locales. If TEM is small relative to environmental fluctuations, models are likely to be robust for new locales, even when mechanism is unknown. Using temperature, we predict when biogeographic models are likely to fail and illustrate this with a case study. We suggest that failure is predictable from an understanding of how climate drives nonlethal physiological responses, but for many species such data have not been collected. Successful biogeographic forecasting thus depends on understanding when the mechanisms limiting distribution of a species will differ among geographic regions, or at different times, resulting in realized niche shifts. TEM allows prediction of the likelihood of such model failure.

Collaborative Localization and Location Verification in WSNs

PubMed Central

Miao, Chunyu; Dai, Guoyong; Ying, Kezhen; Chen, Qingzhang

2015-01-01

Localization is one of the most important technologies in wireless sensor networks. A lightweight distributed node localization scheme is proposed by considering the limited computational capacity of WSNs. The proposed scheme introduces the virtual force model to determine the location by incremental refinement. Aiming at solving the drifting problem and malicious anchor problem, a location verification algorithm based on the virtual force mode is presented. In addition, an anchor promotion algorithm using the localization reliability model is proposed to re-locate the drifted nodes. Extended simulation experiments indicate that the localization algorithm has relatively high precision and the location verification algorithm has relatively high accuracy. The communication overhead of these algorithms is relative low, and the whole set of reliable localization methods is practical as well as comprehensive. PMID:25954948

IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LOCALITY OF TRANSPORT IN GEOMORPHIC TRANSPORT LAWS: HILLSLOPES AND LANDSCAPE EVOLUTION MODELING

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Ganti, V. K.; Dietrich, W. E.

2009-12-01

Sediment transport on hillslopes can be thought of as a hopping process, where the sediment moves in a series of jumps. A wide range of processes shape the hillslopes which can move sediment to a large distance in the downslope direction, thus, resulting in a broad-tail in the probability density function (PDF) of hopping lengths. Here, we argue that such a broad-tailed distribution calls for a non-local computation of sediment flux, where the sediment flux is not only a function of local topographic quantities but is an integral flux which takes into account the upslope topographic “memory” of the point of interest. We encapsulate this non-local behavior into a simple fractional diffusive model that involves fractional (non-integer) derivatives. We present theoretical predictions from this nonlocal model and demonstrate a nonlinear dependence of sediment flux on local gradient, consistent with observations. Further, we demonstrate that the non-local model naturally eliminates the scale-dependence exhibited by any local (linear or nonlinear) sediment transport model. An extension to a 2-D framework, where the fractional derivative can be cast into a mixture of directional derivatives, is discussed together with the implications of introducing non-locality into existing landscape evolution models.

An Urban Diffusion Simulation Model for Carbon Monoxide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, W. B.; And Others

1973-01-01

A relatively simple Gaussian-type diffusion simulation model for calculating urban carbon (CO) concentrations as a function of local meteorology and the distribution of traffic is described. The model can be used in two ways: in the synoptic mode and in the climatological mode. (Author/BL)

The Local Structure of Globalization. The Network Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investments in the International Electricity Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinen, Johan; Lomi, Alessandro

2013-05-01

We study the evolution of the network of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the international electricity industry during the period 1994-2003. We assume that the ties in the network of investment relations between countries are created and deleted in continuous time, according to a conditional Gibbs distribution. This assumption allows us to take simultaneously into account the aggregate predictions of the well-established gravity model of international trade as well as local dependencies between network ties connecting the countries in our sample. According to the modified version of the gravity model that we specify, the probability of observing an investment tie between two countries depends on the mass of the economies involved, their physical distance, and the tendency of the network to self-organize into local configurations of network ties. While the limiting distribution of the data generating process is an exponential random graph model, we do not assume the system to be in equilibrium. We find evidence of the effects of the standard gravity model of international trade on evolution of the global FDI network. However, we also provide evidence of significant dyadic and extra-dyadic dependencies between investment ties that are typically ignored in available research. We show that local dependencies between national electricity industries are sufficient for explaining global properties of the network of foreign direct investments. We also show, however, that network dependencies vary significantly over time giving rise to a time-heterogeneous localized process of network evolution.

Kinetic market models with single commodity having price fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Chakrabarti, B. K.

2006-12-01

We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuations in the price of the commodity. These distributions are studied in markets with agents having uniform and random saving factors. The self-organizing features in money distribution are similar to the cases without any commodity (or with consumable commodities), while the commodity distribution shows an exponential decay. The wealth distribution shows interesting behavior: gamma like distribution for uniform saving propensity and has the same power-law tail, as that of the money distribution, for a market with agents having random saving propensity.

Nanoscale strain mapping in battery nanostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulvestad, A.; Cho, H. M.; Harder, R.; Kim, J. W.; Dietze, S. H.; Fohtung, E.; Meng, Y. S.; Shpyrko, O. G.

2014-02-01

Coherent x-ray diffraction imaging is used to map the local three dimensional strain inhomogeneity and electron density distribution of two individual LiNi0.5Mn1.5O4-δ cathode nanoparticles in both ex-situ and in-situ environments. Our reconstructed images revealed a maximum strain of 0.4%. We observed different variations in strain inhomogeneity due to multiple competing effects. The compressive/tensile component of the strain is connected to the local lithium content and, on the surface, interpreted in terms of a local Jahn-Teller distortion of Mn3+. Finally, the measured strain distributions are discussed in terms of their impact on competing theoretical models of the lithiation process.

A data centred method to estimate and map how the local distribution of daily precipitation is changing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nick

2014-05-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on a method to transform daily observations of precipitation into patterns of local climate change. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by daily precipitation data. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results show regionally consistent patterns of systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, and of drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, 2013, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

Role of demographic stochasticity in a speciation model with sexual reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafuerza, Luis F.; McKane, Alan J.

2016-03-01

Recent theoretical studies have shown that demographic stochasticity can greatly increase the tendency of asexually reproducing phenotypically diverse organisms to spontaneously evolve into localized clusters, suggesting a simple mechanism for sympatric speciation. Here we study the role of demographic stochasticity in a model of competing organisms subject to assortative mating. We find that in models with sexual reproduction, noise can also lead to the formation of phenotypic clusters in parameter ranges where deterministic models would lead to a homogeneous distribution. In some cases, noise can have a sizable effect, rendering the deterministic modeling insufficient to understand the phenotypic distribution.

An automated model-based aim point distribution system for solar towers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarzbözl, Peter; Rong, Amadeus; Macke, Ansgar; Säck, Jan-Peter; Ulmer, Steffen

2016-05-01

Distribution of heliostat aim points is a major task during central receiver operation, as the flux distribution produced by the heliostats varies continuously with time. Known methods for aim point distribution are mostly based on simple aim point patterns and focus on control strategies to meet local temperature and flux limits of the receiver. Lowering the peak flux on the receiver to avoid hot spots and maximizing thermal output are obviously competing targets that call for a comprehensive optimization process. This paper presents a model-based method for online aim point optimization that includes the current heliostat field mirror quality derived through an automated deflectometric measurement process.

Defense Simulation Internet: next generation information highway.

PubMed

Lilienthal, M G

1995-06-01

The Department of Defense has been engaged in the Defense Modeling and Simulation Initiative (DMSI) to provide advanced distributed simulation warfighters in geographically distributed localities. Lessons learned from the Defense Simulation Internet (DSI) concerning architecture, standards, protocols, interoperability, information sharing, and distributed data bases are equally applicable to telemedicine. Much of the vision and objectives of the DMSI are easily translated into the vision for world wide telemedicine.

Scale-free networks as an epiphenomenon of memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caravelli, F.; Hamma, A.; Di Ventra, M.

2015-01-01

Many realistic networks are scale free, with small characteristic path lengths, high clustering, and power law in their degree distribution. They can be obtained by dynamical networks in which a preferential attachment process takes place. However, this mechanism is non-local, in the sense that it requires knowledge of the whole graph in order for the graph to be updated. Instead, if preferential attachment and realistic networks occur in physical systems, these features need to emerge from a local model. In this paper, we propose a local model and show that a possible ingredient (which is often underrated) for obtaining scale-free networks with local rules is memory. Such a model can be realised in solid-state circuits, using non-linear passive elements with memory such as memristors, and thus can be tested experimentally.

Robust active contour via additive local and global intensity information based on local entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Shuai; Monkam, Patrice; Zhang, Feng; Luan, Fangjun; Koomson, Ben Alfred

2018-01-01

Active contour-based image segmentation can be a very challenging task due to many factors such as high intensity inhomogeneity, presence of noise, complex shape, weak boundaries objects, and dependence on the position of the initial contour. We propose a level set-based active contour method to segment complex shape objects from images corrupted by noise and high intensity inhomogeneity. The energy function of the proposed method results from combining the global intensity information and local intensity information with some regularization factors. First, the global intensity term is proposed based on a scheme formulation that considers two intensity values for each region instead of one, which outperforms the well-known Chan-Vese model in delineating the image information. Second, the local intensity term is formulated based on local entropy computed considering the distribution of the image brightness and using the generalized Gaussian distribution as the kernel function. Therefore, it can accurately handle high intensity inhomogeneity and noise. Moreover, our model is not dependent on the position occupied by the initial curve. Finally, extensive experiments using various images have been carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Compounding approach for univariate time series with nonstationary variances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäfer, Rudi; Barkhofen, Sonja; Guhr, Thomas; Stöckmann, Hans-Jürgen; Kuhl, Ulrich

2015-12-01

A defining feature of nonstationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent variances. To model the long-term statistical behavior, we compound the local distribution with the distribution of its parameters. Here, we consider two concrete, but diverse, examples of such nonstationary systems: the turbulent air flow of a fan and a time series of foreign exchange rates. Our main focus is to empirically determine the appropriate parameter distribution for the compounding approach. To this end, we extract the relevant time scales by decomposing the time signals into windows and determine the distribution function of the thus obtained local variances.

Compounding approach for univariate time series with nonstationary variances.

PubMed

Schäfer, Rudi; Barkhofen, Sonja; Guhr, Thomas; Stöckmann, Hans-Jürgen; Kuhl, Ulrich

2015-12-01

A defining feature of nonstationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent variances. To model the long-term statistical behavior, we compound the local distribution with the distribution of its parameters. Here, we consider two concrete, but diverse, examples of such nonstationary systems: the turbulent air flow of a fan and a time series of foreign exchange rates. Our main focus is to empirically determine the appropriate parameter distribution for the compounding approach. To this end, we extract the relevant time scales by decomposing the time signals into windows and determine the distribution function of the thus obtained local variances.

A method for establishing constraints on galactic magnetic field models using ultra high energy cosmic rays and results from the data of the Pierre Auger Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, Michael Stephen

2010-12-01

The Galactic magnetic field is poorly understood. Essentially the only reliable measurements of its properties are the local orientation and field strength. Its behavior at galactic scales is unknown. Historically, magnetic field measurements have been performed using radio astronomy techniques which are sensitive to certain regions of the Galaxy and rely upon models of the distribution of gas and dust within the disk. However, the deflection of trajectories of ultra high energy cosmic rays arriving from extragalactic sources depends only on the properties of the magnetic field. In this work, a method is developed for determining acceptable global models of the Galactic magnetic field by backtracking cosmic rays through the field model. This method constrains the parameter space of magnetic field models by comparing a test statistic between backtracked cosmic rays and isotropic expectations for assumed cosmic ray source and composition hypotheses. Constraints on Galactic magnetic field models are established using data from the southern site of the Pierre Auger Observatory under various source distribution and cosmic ray composition hypotheses. Field models possessing structure similar to the stellar spiral arms are found to be inconsistent with hypotheses of an iron cosmic ray composition and sources selected from catalogs tracing the local matter distribution in the universe. These field models are consistent with hypothesis combinations of proton composition and sources tracing the local matter distribution. In particular, strong constraints are found on the parameter space of bisymmetric magnetic field models scanned under hypotheses of proton composition and sources selected from the 2MRS-VS, Swift 39-month, and VCV catalogs. Assuming that the Galactic magnetic field is well-described by a bisymmetric model under these hypotheses, the magnetic field strength near the Sun is less than 3-4 muG and magnetic pitch angle is less than -8°. These results comprise the first measurements of the Galactic magnetic field using ultra-high energy cosmic rays and supplement existing radio astronomical measurements of the Galactic magnetic field.

A unified model explains commonness and rarity on coral reefs.

PubMed

Connolly, Sean R; Hughes, Terry P; Bellwood, David R

2017-04-01

Abundance patterns in ecological communities have important implications for biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem functioning. However, ecological theory has been largely unsuccessful at capturing multiple macroecological abundance patterns simultaneously. Here, we propose a parsimonious model that unifies widespread ecological relationships involving local aggregation, species-abundance distributions, and species associations, and we test this model against the metacommunity structure of reef-building corals and coral reef fishes across the western and central Pacific. For both corals and fishes, the unified model simultaneously captures extremely well local species-abundance distributions, interspecific variation in the strength of spatial aggregation, patterns of community similarity, species accumulation, and regional species richness, performing far better than alternative models also examined here and in previous work on coral reefs. Our approach contributes to the development of synthetic theory for large-scale patterns of community structure in nature, and to addressing ongoing challenges in biodiversity conservation at macroecological scales. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Localized surface plasmon enhanced cellular imaging using random metallic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Taehwang; Lee, Wonju; Kim, Donghyun

2017-02-01

We have studied fluorescence cellular imaging with randomly distributed localized near-field induced by silver nano-islands. For the fabrication of nano-islands, a 10-nm silver thin film evaporated on a BK7 glass substrate with an adhesion layer of 2-nm thick chromium. Micrometer sized silver square pattern was defined using e-beam lithography and then the film was annealed at 200°C. Raw images were restored using electric field distribution produced on the surface of random nano-islands. Nano-islands were modeled from SEM images. 488-nm p-polarized light source was set to be incident at 60°. Simulation results show that localized electric fields were created among nano-islands and that their average size was found to be 135 nm. The feasibility was tested using conventional total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy while the angle of incidence was adjusted to maximize field enhancement. Mouse microphage cells were cultured on nano-islands, and actin filaments were selectively stained with FITC-conjugated phalloidin. Acquired images were deconvolved based on linear imaging theory, in which molecular distribution was sampled by randomly distributed localized near-field and blurred by point spread function of far-field optics. The optimum fluorophore distribution was probabilistically estimated by repetitively matching a raw image. The deconvolved images are estimated to have a resolution in the range of 100-150 nm largely determined by the size of localized near-fields. We also discuss and compare the results with images acquired with periodic nano-aperture arrays in various optical configurations to excite localized plasmonic fields and to produce super-resolved molecular images.

Stochastic seismic inversion based on an improved local gradual deformation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiuwei; Zhu, Peimin

2017-12-01

A new stochastic seismic inversion method based on the local gradual deformation method is proposed, which can incorporate seismic data, well data, geology and their spatial correlations into the inversion process. Geological information, such as sedimentary facies and structures, could provide significant a priori information to constrain an inversion and arrive at reasonable solutions. The local a priori conditional cumulative distributions at each node of model to be inverted are first established by indicator cokriging, which integrates well data as hard data and geological information as soft data. Probability field simulation is used to simulate different realizations consistent with the spatial correlations and local conditional cumulative distributions. The corresponding probability field is generated by the fast Fourier transform moving average method. Then, optimization is performed to match the seismic data via an improved local gradual deformation method. Two improved strategies are proposed to be suitable for seismic inversion. The first strategy is that we select and update local areas of bad fitting between synthetic seismic data and real seismic data. The second one is that we divide each seismic trace into several parts and obtain the optimal parameters for each part individually. The applications to a synthetic example and a real case study demonstrate that our approach can effectively find fine-scale acoustic impedance models and provide uncertainty estimations.

Statistical electric field and switching time distributions in PZT 1Nb2Sr ceramics: Crystal- and microstructure effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhukov, Sergey; Kungl, Hans; Genenko, Yuri A.; von Seggern, Heinz

2014-01-01

Dispersive polarization response of ferroelectric PZT ceramics is analyzed assuming the inhomogeneous field mechanism of polarization switching. In terms of this model, the local polarization switching proceeds according to the Kolmogorov-Avrami-Ishibashi scenario with the switching time determined by the local electric field. As a result, the total polarization reversal is dominated by the statistical distribution of the local field magnitudes. Microscopic parameters of this model (the high-field switching time and the activation field) as well as the statistical field and consequent switching time distributions due to disorder at a mesoscopic scale can be directly determined from a set of experiments measuring the time dependence of the total polarization switching, when applying electric fields of different magnitudes. PZT 1Nb2Sr ceramics with Zr/Ti ratios 51.5/48.5, 52.25/47.75, and 60/40 with four different grain sizes each were analyzed following this approach. Pronounced differences of field and switching time distributions were found depending on the Zr/Ti ratios. Varying grain size also affects polarization reversal parameters, but in another way. The field distributions remain almost constant with grain size whereas switching times and activation field tend to decrease with increasing grain size. The quantitative changes of the latter parameters with grain size are very different depending on composition. The origin of the effects on the field and switching time distributions are related to differences in structural and microstructural characteristics of the materials and are discussed with respect to the hysteresis loops observed under bipolar electrical cycling.

Expanding signaling-molecule wavefront model of cell polarization in the Drosophila wing primordium.

PubMed

Wortman, Juliana C; Nahmad, Marcos; Zhang, Peng Cheng; Lander, Arthur D; Yu, Clare C

2017-07-01

In developing tissues, cell polarization and proliferation are regulated by morphogens and signaling pathways. Cells throughout the Drosophila wing primordium typically show subcellular localization of the unconventional myosin Dachs on the distal side of cells (nearest the center of the disc). Dachs localization depends on the spatial distribution of bonds between the protocadherins Fat (Ft) and Dachsous (Ds), which form heterodimers between adjacent cells; and the Golgi kinase Four-jointed (Fj), which affects the binding affinities of Ft and Ds. The Fj concentration forms a linear gradient while the Ds concentration is roughly uniform throughout most of the wing pouch with a steep transition region that propagates from the center to the edge of the pouch during the third larval instar. Although the Fj gradient is an important cue for polarization, it is unclear how the polarization is affected by cell division and the expanding Ds transition region, both of which can alter the distribution of Ft-Ds heterodimers around the cell periphery. We have developed a computational model to address these questions. In our model, the binding affinity of Ft and Ds depends on phosphorylation by Fj. We assume that the asymmetry of the Ft-Ds bond distribution around the cell periphery defines the polarization, with greater asymmetry promoting cell proliferation. Our model predicts that this asymmetry is greatest in the radially-expanding transition region that leaves polarized cells in its wake. These cells naturally retain their bond distribution asymmetry after division by rapidly replenishing Ft-Ds bonds at new cell-cell interfaces. Thus we predict that the distal localization of Dachs in cells throughout the pouch requires the movement of the Ds transition region and the simple presence, rather than any specific spatial pattern, of Fj.

Localized mRNA translation and protein association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhdanov, Vladimir P.

2014-08-01

Recent direct observations of localization of mRNAs and proteins both in prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells can be related to slowdown of diffusion of these species due to macromolecular crowding and their ability to aggregate and form immobile or slowly mobile complexes. Here, a generic kinetic model describing both these factors is presented and comprehensively analyzed. Although the model is non-linear, an accurate self-consistent analytical solution of the corresponding reaction-diffusion equation has been constructed, the types of localized protein distributions have been explicitly shown, and the predicted kinetic regimes of gene expression have been classified.

Local deformation for soft tissue simulation

PubMed Central

Omar, Nadzeri; Zhong, Yongmin; Smith, Julian; Gu, Chengfan

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT This paper presents a new methodology to localize the deformation range to improve the computational efficiency for soft tissue simulation. This methodology identifies the local deformation range from the stress distribution in soft tissues due to an external force. A stress estimation method is used based on elastic theory to estimate the stress in soft tissues according to a depth from the contact surface. The proposed methodology can be used with both mass-spring and finite element modeling approaches for soft tissue deformation. Experimental results show that the proposed methodology can improve the computational efficiency while maintaining the modeling realism. PMID:27286482

High-Resolution Imaging of Selenium in Kidneys: A Localized Selenium Pool Associated with Glutathione Peroxidase 3

PubMed Central

Malinouski, Mikalai; Kehr, Sebastian; Finney, Lydia; Vogt, Stefan; Carlson, Bradley A.; Seravalli, Javier; Jin, Richard; Handy, Diane E.; Park, Thomas J.; Loscalzo, Joseph; Hatfield, Dolph L.

2012-01-01

Abstract Aim: Recent advances in quantitative methods and sensitive imaging techniques of trace elements provide opportunities to uncover and explain their biological roles. In particular, the distribution of selenium in tissues and cells under both physiological and pathological conditions remains unknown. In this work, we applied high-resolution synchrotron X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to map selenium distribution in mouse liver and kidney. Results: Liver showed a uniform selenium distribution that was dependent on selenocysteine tRNA[Ser]Sec and dietary selenium. In contrast, kidney selenium had both uniformly distributed and highly localized components, the latter visualized as thin circular structures surrounding proximal tubules. Other parts of the kidney, such as glomeruli and distal tubules, only manifested the uniformly distributed selenium pattern that co-localized with sulfur. We found that proximal tubule selenium localized to the basement membrane. It was preserved in Selenoprotein P knockout mice, but was completely eliminated in glutathione peroxidase 3 (GPx3) knockout mice, indicating that this selenium represented GPx3. We further imaged kidneys of another model organism, the naked mole rat, which showed a diminished uniformly distributed selenium pool, but preserved the circular proximal tubule signal. Innovation: We applied XFM to image selenium in mammalian tissues and identified a highly localized pool of this trace element at the basement membrane of kidneys that was associated with GPx3. Conclusion: XFM allowed us to define and explain the tissue topography of selenium in mammalian kidneys at submicron resolution. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 16, 185–192. PMID:21854231

A Fault Location Algorithm for Two-End Series-Compensated Double-Circuit Transmission Lines Using the Distributed Parameter Line Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, Ning; Gombos, Gergely; Mousavi, Mirrasoul J.

A new fault location algorithm for two-end series-compensated double-circuit transmission lines utilizing unsynchronized two-terminal current phasors and local voltage phasors is presented in this paper. The distributed parameter line model is adopted to take into account the shunt capacitance of the lines. The mutual coupling between the parallel lines in the zero-sequence network is also considered. The boundary conditions under different fault types are used to derive the fault location formulation. The developed algorithm directly uses the local voltage phasors on the line side of series compensation (SC) and metal oxide varistor (MOV). However, when potential transformers are not installedmore » on the line side of SC and MOVs for the local terminal, these measurements can be calculated from the local terminal bus voltage and currents by estimating the voltages across the SC and MOVs. MATLAB SimPowerSystems is used to generate cases under diverse fault conditions to evaluating accuracy. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is qualified for practical implementation.« less

Local tsunamis and earthquake source parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Dmowska, Renata; Saltzman, Barry

1999-01-01

This chapter establishes the relationship among earthquake source parameters and the generation, propagation, and run-up of local tsunamis. In general terms, displacement of the seafloor during the earthquake rupture is modeled using the elastic dislocation theory for which the displacement field is dependent on the slip distribution, fault geometry, and the elastic response and properties of the medium. Specifically, nonlinear long-wave theory governs the propagation and run-up of tsunamis. A parametric study is devised to examine the relative importance of individual earthquake source parameters on local tsunamis, because the physics that describes tsunamis from generation through run-up is complex. Analysis of the source parameters of various tsunamigenic earthquakes have indicated that the details of the earthquake source, namely, nonuniform distribution of slip along the fault plane, have a significant effect on the local tsunami run-up. Numerical methods have been developed to address the realistic bathymetric and shoreline conditions. The accuracy of determining the run-up on shore is directly dependent on the source parameters of the earthquake, which provide the initial conditions used for the hydrodynamic models.

Combining Regional- and Local-Scale Air Quality Models with Exposure Models for Use in Environmental Health Studies

EPA Science Inventory

Population-based human exposure models predict the distribution of personal exposures to pollutants of outdoor origin using a variety of inputs, including: air pollution concentrations; human activity patterns, such as the amount of time spent outdoors vs. indoors, commuting, wal...

Bringing modeling to the masses: A web based system to predict potential species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Newman, Greg; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nick; Crall, Alycia W.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Evangelista, Paul

2010-01-01

Predicting current and potential species distributions and abundance is critical for managing invasive species, preserving threatened and endangered species, and conserving native species and habitats. Accurate predictive models are needed at local, regional, and national scales to guide field surveys, improve monitoring, and set priorities for conservation and restoration. Modeling capabilities, however, are often limited by access to software and environmental data required for predictions. To address these needs, we built a comprehensive web-based system that: (1) maintains a large database of field data; (2) provides access to field data and a wealth of environmental data; (3) accesses values in rasters representing environmental characteristics; (4) runs statistical spatial models; and (5) creates maps that predict the potential species distribution. The system is available online at www.niiss.org, and provides web-based tools for stakeholders to create potential species distribution models and maps under current and future climate scenarios.

Agent-based spin model for financial markets on complex networks: Emergence of two-phase phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yup; Kim, Hong-Joo; Yook, Soon-Hyung

2008-09-01

We study a microscopic model for financial markets on complex networks, motivated by the dynamics of agents and their structure of interaction. The model consists of interacting agents (spins) with local ferromagnetic coupling and global antiferromagnetic coupling. In order to incorporate more realistic situations, we also introduce an external field which changes in time. From numerical simulations, we find that the model shows two-phase phenomena. When the local ferromagnetic interaction is balanced with the global antiferromagnetic interaction, the resulting return distribution satisfies a power law having a single peak at zero values of return, which corresponds to the market equilibrium phase. On the other hand, if local ferromagnetic interaction is dominant, then the return distribution becomes double peaked at nonzero values of return, which characterizes the out-of-equilibrium phase. On random networks, the crossover between two phases comes from the competition between two different interactions. However, on scale-free networks, not only the competition between the different interactions but also the heterogeneity of underlying topology causes the two-phase phenomena. Possible relationships between the critical phenomena of spin system and the two-phase phenomena are discussed.

A local recent supernova - Evidence from X-rays, Al-26 radioactivity and cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, Donald D.; Cox, Donald P.; Michel, Curtis F.

1986-01-01

Possible ways in which cosmic rays could have been contaminated by a local recent supernova are discussed, and ways in which this contamination may be affecting interpretation of Al-26 gamma radiation and locally observed cosmic rays as samples of the average Galactic distribution are considered. Mass spectra of cosmic rays are examined to see whether there is enrichment by a population arising from supernova preacceleration. The reinterpretation of the anomalous component in terms of a local supernova model is addressed.

A physically based catchment partitioning method for hydrological analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menduni, Giovanni; Riboni, Vittoria

2000-07-01

We propose a partitioning method for the topographic surface, which is particularly suitable for hydrological distributed modelling and shallow-landslide distributed modelling. The model provides variable mesh size and appears to be a natural evolution of contour-based digital terrain models. The proposed method allows the drainage network to be derived from the contour lines. The single channels are calculated via a search for the steepest downslope lines. Then, for each network node, the contributing area is determined by means of a search for both steepest upslope and downslope lines. This leads to the basin being partitioned into physically based finite elements delimited by irregular polygons. In particular, the distributed computation of local geomorphological parameters (i.e. aspect, average slope and elevation, main stream length, concentration time, etc.) can be performed easily for each single element. The contributing area system, together with the information on the distribution of geomorphological parameters provide a useful tool for distributed hydrological modelling and simulation of environmental processes such as erosion, sediment transport and shallow landslides.

Modeling complexity in engineered infrastructure system: Water distribution network as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Fang; Li, Xiang; Li, Ke

2017-02-01

The complex topology and adaptive behavior of infrastructure systems are driven by both self-organization of the demand and rigid engineering solutions. Therefore, engineering complex systems requires a method balancing holism and reductionism. To model the growth of water distribution networks, a complex network model was developed following the combination of local optimization rules and engineering considerations. The demand node generation is dynamic and follows the scaling law of urban growth. The proposed model can generate a water distribution network (WDN) similar to reported real-world WDNs on some structural properties. Comparison with different modeling approaches indicates that a realistic demand node distribution and co-evolvement of demand node and network are important for the simulation of real complex networks. The simulation results indicate that the efficiency of water distribution networks is exponentially affected by the urban growth pattern. On the contrary, the improvement of efficiency by engineering optimization is limited and relatively insignificant. The redundancy and robustness, on another aspect, can be significantly improved through engineering methods.

Numerical modeling of heat transfer in the fuel oil storage tank at thermal power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Svetlana A.

2015-01-01

Presents results of mathematical modeling of convection of a viscous incompressible fluid in a rectangular cavity with conducting walls of finite thickness in the presence of a local source of heat in the bottom of the field in terms of convective heat exchange with the environment. A mathematical model is formulated in terms of dimensionless variables "stream function - vorticity vector speed - temperature" in the Cartesian coordinate system. As the results show the distributions of hydrodynamic parameters and temperatures using different boundary conditions on the local heat source.

Estimation of reflectance from camera responses by the regularized local linear model.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei-Feng; Tang, Gongguo; Dai, Dao-Qing; Nehorai, Arye

2011-10-01

Because of the limited approximation capability of using fixed basis functions, the performance of reflectance estimation obtained by traditional linear models will not be optimal. We propose an approach based on the regularized local linear model. Our approach performs efficiently and knowledge of the spectral power distribution of the illuminant and the spectral sensitivities of the camera is not needed. Experimental results show that the proposed method performs better than some well-known methods in terms of both reflectance error and colorimetric error. © 2011 Optical Society of America

A Multiscale Progressive Failure Modeling Methodology for Composites that Includes Fiber Strength Stochastics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Thomas E., Jr.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.; Hutchins, John W.

2014-01-01

A multiscale modeling methodology was developed for continuous fiber composites that incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled multiscale micromechanics/finite element (FE) analyses. A modified two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function, which accounts for the effect of fiber length on the probability of failure, was used to characterize the statistical distribution of fiber strengths. A parametric study using the NASA Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) was performed to assess the effect of variable fiber strengths on local composite failure within a repeating unit cell (RUC) and subsequent global failure. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a unidirectional SCS-6/TIMETAL 21S metal matrix composite tensile dogbone specimen at 650 degC. Multiscale progressive failure analyses were performed to quantify the effect of spatially varying fiber strengths on the RUC-averaged and global stress-strain responses and failure. The ultimate composite strengths and distribution of failure locations (predominately within the gage section) reasonably matched the experimentally observed failure behavior. The predicted composite failure behavior suggests that use of macroscale models that exploit global geometric symmetries are inappropriate for cases where the actual distribution of local fiber strengths displays no such symmetries. This issue has not received much attention in the literature. Moreover, the model discretization at a specific length scale can have a profound effect on the computational costs associated with multiscale simulations.models that yield accurate yet tractable results.

MR PROSTATE SEGMENTATION VIA DISTRIBUTED DISCRIMINATIVE DICTIONARY (DDD) LEARNING.

PubMed

Guo, Yanrong; Zhan, Yiqiang; Gao, Yaozong; Jiang, Jianguo; Shen, Dinggang

2013-01-01

Segmenting prostate from MR images is important yet challenging. Due to non-Gaussian distribution of prostate appearances in MR images, the popular active appearance model (AAM) has its limited performance. Although the newly developed sparse dictionary learning method[1, 2] can model the image appearance in a non-parametric fashion, the learned dictionaries still lack the discriminative power between prostate and non-prostate tissues, which is critical for accurate prostate segmentation. In this paper, we propose to integrate deformable model with a novel learning scheme, namely the Distributed Discriminative Dictionary ( DDD ) learning, which can capture image appearance in a non-parametric and discriminative fashion. In particular, three strategies are designed to boost the tissue discriminative power of DDD. First , minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) feature selection is performed to constrain the dictionary learning in a discriminative feature space. Second , linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is employed to assemble residuals from different dictionaries for optimal separation between prostate and non-prostate tissues. Third , instead of learning the global dictionaries, we learn a set of local dictionaries for the local regions (each with small appearance variations) along prostate boundary, thus achieving better tissue differentiation locally. In the application stage, DDDs will provide the appearance cues to robustly drive the deformable model onto the prostate boundary. Experiments on 50 MR prostate images show that our method can yield a Dice Ratio of 88% compared to the manual segmentations, and have 7% improvement over the conventional AAM.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Tomographic imaging of non-local media based on space-fractional diffusion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buonocore, Salvatore; Semperlotti, Fabio

2018-06-01

We investigate a generalized tomographic imaging framework applicable to a class of inhomogeneous media characterized by non-local diffusive energy transport. Under these conditions, the transport mechanism is well described by fractional-order continuum models capable of capturing anomalous diffusion that would otherwise remain undetected when using traditional integer-order models. Although the underlying idea of the proposed framework is applicable to any transport mechanism, the case of fractional heat conduction is presented as a specific example to illustrate the methodology. By using numerical simulations, we show how complex inhomogeneous media involving non-local transport can be successfully imaged if fractional order models are used. In particular, results will show that by properly recognizing and accounting for the fractional character of the host medium not only allows achieving increased resolution but, in case of strong and spatially distributed non-locality, it represents the only viable approach to achieve a successful reconstruction.

Model-based correction for local stress-induced overlay errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stobert, Ian; Krishnamurthy, Subramanian; Shi, Hongbo; Stiffler, Scott

2018-03-01

Manufacturing embedded DRAM deep trench capacitors can involve etching very deep holes into silicon wafers1. Due to various design constraints, these holes may not be uniformly distributed across the wafer surface. Some wafer processing steps for these trenches results in stress effects which can distort the silicon wafer in a manner that creates localized alignment issues between the trenches and the structures built above them on the wafer. In this paper, we describe a method to model these localized silicon distortions for complex layouts involving billions of deep trench structures. We describe wafer metrology techniques and data which have been used to verify the stress distortion model accuracy. We also provide a description of how this kind of model can be used to manipulate the polygons in the mask tape out flow to compensate for predicted localized misalignments between design shapes from a deep trench mask and subsequent masks.

The structure and statistics of interstellar turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kritsuk, A. G.; Ustyugov, S. D.; Norman, M. L.

2017-06-01

We explore the structure and statistics of multiphase, magnetized ISM turbulence in the local Milky Way by means of driven periodic box numerical MHD simulations. Using the higher order-accurate piecewise-parabolic method on a local stencil (PPML), we carry out a small parameter survey varying the mean magnetic field strength and density while fixing the rms velocity to observed values. We quantify numerous characteristics of the transient and steady-state turbulence, including its thermodynamics and phase structure, kinetic and magnetic energy power spectra, structure functions, and distribution functions of density, column density, pressure, and magnetic field strength. The simulations reproduce many observables of the local ISM, including molecular clouds, such as the ratio of turbulent to mean magnetic field at 100 pc scale, the mass and volume fractions of thermally stable Hi, the lognormal distribution of column densities, the mass-weighted distribution of thermal pressure, and the linewidth-size relationship for molecular clouds. Our models predict the shape of magnetic field probability density functions (PDFs), which are strongly non-Gaussian, and the relative alignment of magnetic field and density structures. Finally, our models show how the observed low rates of star formation per free-fall time are controlled by the multiphase thermodynamics and large-scale turbulence.

Interpopulational variation in the cold tolerance of a broadly distributed marine copepod

PubMed Central

Wallace, Gemma T.; Kim, Tiffany L.; Neufeld, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

Latitudinal trends in cold tolerance have been observed in many terrestrial ectotherms, but few studies have investigated interpopulational variation in the cold physiology of marine invertebrates. Here, the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus was used as a model system to study how local adaptation influences the cold tolerance of a broadly distributed marine crustacean. Among five populations spanning 18° in latitude, the following three metrics were used to compare cold tolerance: the temperature of chill-coma onset, the chill-coma recovery time and post-freezing recovery. In comparison to copepods from warmer southern latitudes, animals from northern populations exhibited lower chill-coma onset temperatures, shorter chill-coma recovery times and faster post-freezing recovery rates. Importantly, all three metrics showed a consistent latitudinal trend, suggesting that any single metric could be used equivalently in future studies investigating latitudinal variation in cold tolerance. Our results agree with previous studies showing that populations within a single species can display strong local adaptation to spatially varying climatic conditions. Thus, accounting for local adaptation in bioclimate models will be useful for understanding how broadly distributed species like T. californicus will respond to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:27293662

Interpopulational variation in the cold tolerance of a broadly distributed marine copepod.

PubMed

Wallace, Gemma T; Kim, Tiffany L; Neufeld, Christopher J

2014-01-01

Latitudinal trends in cold tolerance have been observed in many terrestrial ectotherms, but few studies have investigated interpopulational variation in the cold physiology of marine invertebrates. Here, the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus was used as a model system to study how local adaptation influences the cold tolerance of a broadly distributed marine crustacean. Among five populations spanning 18° in latitude, the following three metrics were used to compare cold tolerance: the temperature of chill-coma onset, the chill-coma recovery time and post-freezing recovery. In comparison to copepods from warmer southern latitudes, animals from northern populations exhibited lower chill-coma onset temperatures, shorter chill-coma recovery times and faster post-freezing recovery rates. Importantly, all three metrics showed a consistent latitudinal trend, suggesting that any single metric could be used equivalently in future studies investigating latitudinal variation in cold tolerance. Our results agree with previous studies showing that populations within a single species can display strong local adaptation to spatially varying climatic conditions. Thus, accounting for local adaptation in bioclimate models will be useful for understanding how broadly distributed species like T. californicus will respond to anthropogenic climate change.

Direct evidence for EMIC wave scattering of relativistic electrons in space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.-J.; Li, W.; Ma, Q.; Thorne, R. M.; Angelopoulos, V.; Bortnik, J.; Chen, L.; Kletzing, C. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Baker, D. N.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J. F.

2016-07-01

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves have been proposed to cause efficient losses of highly relativistic (>1 MeV) electrons via gyroresonant interactions. Simultaneous observations of EMIC waves and equatorial electron pitch angle distributions, which can be used to directly quantify the EMIC wave scattering effect, are still very limited, however. In the present study, we evaluate the effect of EMIC waves on pitch angle scattering of ultrarelativistic (>1 MeV) electrons during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, when intense EMIC wave activity was observed in situ (in the plasma plume region with high plasma density) on both Van Allen Probes. EMIC waves captured by Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) probes and on the ground across the Canadian Array for Real-time Investigations of Magnetic Activity (CARISMA) are also used to infer their magnetic local time (MLT) coverage. From the observed EMIC wave spectra and local plasma parameters, we compute wave diffusion rates and model the evolution of electron pitch angle distributions. By comparing model results with local observations of pitch angle distributions, we show direct, quantitative evidence of EMIC wave-driven relativistic electron losses in the Earth's outer radiation belt.

Statistical characteristics of the spatial distribution of territorial contamination by radionuclides from the Chernobyl accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bol`shov, L.A.; Vasil`ev, S.K.

1994-06-01

The objective of this study was to clarify a number of issues related to the spatial distribution of contaminants from the Chernobyl accident. The effects of local statistics were addressed by collecting and analyzing (for Cesium 137) soil samples from a number of regions, and it was found that sample activity differed by a factor of 3-5. The effect of local non-uniformity was estimated by modeling the distribution of the average activity of a set of five samples for each of the regions, with the spread in the activities for a {+-}2 range being equal to 25%. The statistical characteristicsmore » of the distribution of contamination were then analyzed and found to be a log-normal distribution with the standard deviation being a function of test area. All data for the Bryanskaya Oblast area were analyzed statistically and were adequately described by a log-normal function.« less

Models of recurrent strike-slip earthquake cycles and the state of crustal stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyzenga, Gregory A.; Raefsky, Arthur; Mulligan, Stephanie G.

1991-01-01

Numerical models of the strike-slip earthquake cycle, assuming a viscoelastic asthenosphere coupling model, are examined. The time-dependent simulations incorporate a stress-driven fault, which leads to tectonic stress fields and earthquake recurrence histories that are mutually consistent. Single-fault simulations with constant far-field plate motion lead to a nearly periodic earthquake cycle and a distinctive spatial distribution of crustal shear stress. The predicted stress distribution includes a local minimum in stress at depths less than typical seismogenic depths. The width of this stress 'trough' depends on the magnitude of crustal stress relative to asthenospheric drag stresses. The models further predict a local near-fault stress maximum at greater depths, sustained by the cyclic transfer of strain from the elastic crust to the ductile asthenosphere. Models incorporating both low-stress and high-stress fault strength assumptions are examined, under Newtonian and non-Newtonian rheology assumptions. Model results suggest a preference for low-stress (a shear stress level of about 10 MPa) fault models, in agreement with previous estimates based on heat flow measurements and other stress indicators.

In-plane modal frequencies and mode shapes of two stay cables interconnected by uniformly distributed cross-ties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Haiquan; He, Xuhui; Zou, Yunfeng; Wang, Hanfeng

2018-03-01

Stay cables are important load-bearing structural elements of cable-stayed bridges. Suppressing the large vibrations of the stay cables under the external excitations is of worldwide concern for the bridge engineers and researchers. Over the past decade, the use of crosstie has become one of the most practical and effective methods. Extensive research has led to a better understanding of the mechanics of cable networks, and the effects of different parameters, such as length ratio, mass-tension ratio, and segment ratio on the effectiveness of the crosstie have been investigated. In this study, uniformly distributed elastic crossties serve to replace the traditional single, or several cross-ties, aiming to delay "mode localization." A numerical method is developed by replacing the uniformly distributed, discrete elastic cross-tie model with an equivalent, continuously distributed, elastic cross-tie model in order to calculate the modal frequencies and mode shapes of the cable-crosstie system. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparing the elicited results with those obtained using the previous method. The uniformly distributed elastic cross-ties are shown to significantly delay "mode localization."

Vertical distribution of ozone at the terminator on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maattanen, Anni; Lefevre, Franck; Guilbon, Sabrina; Listowski, Constantino; Montmessin, Franck

2016-10-01

The SPICAM/Mars Express UV solar occultation dataset gives access to the ozone vertical distribution via the ozone absorption in the Hartley band (220-280 nm). We present the retrieved ozone profiles and compare them to the LMD Mars Global Climate Model (LMD-MGCM) results.Due to the photochemical reactivity of ozone, a classical comparison of local density profiles is not appropriate for solar occultations that are acquired at the terminator, and we present here a method often used in the Earth community. The principal comparison is made via the slant profiles (integrated ozone concentration on the line-of-sight), since the spherical symmetry hypothesis made in the onion-peeling vertical inversion method is not valid for photochemically active species (e.g., ozone) around terminator. For each occultation, we model the ozone vertical and horizontal distribution with high solar zenith angle (or local time) resolution around the terminator and then integrate the model results following the lines-of-sight of the occultation to construct the modeled slant profile. We will also discuss the difference of results between the above comparison method and a comparison using the local density profiles, i.e., the observed ones inverted by using the spherical symmetry hypothesis and the modeled ones extracted from the LMD-MGCM exactly at the terminator. The method and the results will be presented together with the full dataset.SPICAM is funded by the French Space Agency CNES and this work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme (H2020-Compet-08-2014) under grant agreement UPWARDS-633127.

Self-organization of globally continuous and locally distributed information representation.

PubMed

Wada, Koji; Kurata, Koji; Okada, Masato

2004-01-01

A number of findings suggest that the preferences of neighboring neurons in the inferior temporal (IT) cortex of macaque monkeys tend to be similar. However, a recent study reports convincingly that the preferences of neighboring neurons actually differ. These findings seem contradictory. To explain this conflict, we propose a new view of information representation in the IT cortex. This view takes into account sparse and local neuronal excitation. Since the excitation is sparse, information regarding visual objects seems to be encoded in a distributed manner. The local excitation of neurons coincides with the classical notion of a column structure. Our model consists of input layer and output layer. The main difference from conventional models is that the output layer has local and random intra-layer connections. In this paper, we adopt two rings embedded in three-dimensional space as an input signal space, and examine how resultant information representation depends on the distance between two rings that is denoted as D. We show that there exists critical value for the distance Dc. When D > Dc the output layer becomes able to form the column structure, this model can obtain the distributed representation within the column. While the output layer acquires the conventional information representation observed in the V1 cortex when D < Dc. Moreover, we consider the origin of the difference between information representation of the V1 cortex and that of the IT cortex. Our finding suggests that the difference in the information representations between the V1 and the IT cortices could be caused by difference between the input space structures.

On the proportional abundance of species: Integrating population genetics and community ecology.

PubMed

Marquet, Pablo A; Espinoza, Guillermo; Abades, Sebastian R; Ganz, Angela; Rebolledo, Rolando

2017-12-01

The frequency of genes in interconnected populations and of species in interconnected communities are affected by similar processes, such as birth, death and immigration. The equilibrium distribution of gene frequencies in structured populations is known since the 1930s, under Wright's metapopulation model known as the island model. The equivalent distribution for the species frequency (i.e. the species proportional abundance distribution (SPAD)), at the metacommunity level, however, is unknown. In this contribution, we develop a stochastic model to analytically account for this distribution (SPAD). We show that the same as for genes SPAD follows a beta distribution, which provides a good description of empirical data and applies across a continuum of scales. This stochastic model, based upon a diffusion approximation, provides an alternative to neutral models for the species abundance distribution (SAD), which focus on number of individuals instead of proportions, and demonstrate that the relative frequency of genes in local populations and of species within communities follow the same probability law. We hope our contribution will help stimulate the mathematical and conceptual integration of theories in genetics and ecology.

Extratropical Respones to Amazon Deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badger, A.; Dirmeyer, P.

2014-12-01

Land-use change (LUC) is known to impact local climate conditions through modifications of land-atmosphere interactions. Large-scale LUC, such as Amazon deforestation, could have a significant effect on the local and regional climates. The question remains as to what the global impact of large-scale LUC could be, as previous modeling studies have shown non-local responses due to Amazon deforestation. A common shortcoming in many previous modeling studies is the use of prescribed ocean conditions, which can act as a boundary condition to dampen the global response with respect to changes in the mean and variability. Using fully coupled modeling simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.0, the Amazon rainforest has been replaced with a distribution of representative tropical crops. Through the modifications of local land-atmosphere interactions, a significant change in the region, both at the surface and throughout the atmosphere, can be quantified. Accompanying these local changes are significant changes to the atmospheric circulation across all scales, thus modifying regional climates in other locales. Notable impacts include significant changes in precipitation, surface fluxes, basin-wide sea surface temperatures and ENSO behavior.

Rigorous Results for the Distribution of Money on Connected Graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanchier, Nicolas; Reed, Stephanie

2018-05-01

This paper is concerned with general spatially explicit versions of three stochastic models for the dynamics of money that have been introduced and studied numerically by statistical physicists: the uniform reshuffling model, the immediate exchange model and the model with saving propensity. All three models consist of systems of economical agents that consecutively engage in pairwise monetary transactions. Computer simulations performed in the physics literature suggest that, when the number of agents and the average amount of money per agent are large, the limiting distribution of money as time goes to infinity approaches the exponential distribution for the first model, the gamma distribution with shape parameter two for the second model and a distribution similar but not exactly equal to a gamma distribution whose shape parameter depends on the saving propensity for the third model. The main objective of this paper is to give rigorous proofs of these conjectures and also extend these conjectures to generalizations of the first two models and a variant of the third model that include local rather than global interactions, i.e., instead of choosing the two interacting agents uniformly at random from the system, the agents are located on the vertex set of a general connected graph and can only interact with their neighbors.

Local SAR in parallel transmission pulse design.

PubMed

Lee, Joonsung; Gebhardt, Matthias; Wald, Lawrence L; Adalsteinsson, Elfar

2012-06-01

The management of local and global power deposition in human subjects (specific absorption rate, SAR) is a fundamental constraint to the application of parallel transmission (pTx) systems. Even though the pTx and single channel have to meet the same SAR requirements, the complex behavior of the spatial distribution of local SAR for transmission arrays poses problems that are not encountered in conventional single-channel systems and places additional requirements on pTx radio frequency pulse design. We propose a pTx pulse design method which builds on recent work to capture the spatial distribution of local SAR in numerical tissue models in a compressed parameterization in order to incorporate local SAR constraints within computation times that accommodate pTx pulse design during an in vivo magnetic resonance imaging scan. Additionally, the algorithm yields a protocol-specific ultimate peak in local SAR, which is shown to bound the achievable peak local SAR for a given excitation profile fidelity. The performance of the approach was demonstrated using a numerical human head model and a 7 Tesla eight-channel transmit array. The method reduced peak local 10 g SAR by 14-66% for slice-selective pTx excitations and 2D selective pTx excitations compared to a pTx pulse design constrained only by global SAR. The primary tradeoff incurred for reducing peak local SAR was an increase in global SAR, up to 34% for the evaluated examples, which is favorable in cases where local SAR constraints dominate the pulse applications. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Restoration ecology: two-sex dynamics and cost minimization.

PubMed

Molnár, Ferenc; Caragine, Christina; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, Gyorgy

2013-01-01

We model a spatially detailed, two-sex population dynamics, to study the cost of ecological restoration. We assume that cost is proportional to the number of individuals introduced into a large habitat. We treat dispersal as homogeneous diffusion in a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system. The local population dynamics depends on sex ratio at birth, and allows mortality rates to differ between sexes. Furthermore, local density dependence induces a strong Allee effect, implying that the initial population must be sufficiently large to avert rapid extinction. We address three different initial spatial distributions for the introduced individuals; for each we minimize the associated cost, constrained by the requirement that the species must be restored throughout the habitat. First, we consider spatially inhomogeneous, unstable stationary solutions of the model's equations as plausible candidates for small restoration cost. Second, we use numerical simulations to find the smallest rectangular cluster, enclosing a spatially homogeneous population density, that minimizes the cost of assured restoration. Finally, by employing simulated annealing, we minimize restoration cost among all possible initial spatial distributions of females and males. For biased sex ratios, or for a significant between-sex difference in mortality, we find that sex-specific spatial distributions minimize the cost. But as long as the sex ratio maximizes the local equilibrium density for given mortality rates, a common homogeneous distribution for both sexes that spans a critical distance yields a similarly low cost.

Global Arrays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Daily, Jeffrey A.; Vishnu, Abhinav

2015-11-01

Global Arrays (GA) is a distributed-memory programming model that allows for shared-memory-style programming combined with one-sided communication, to create a set of tools that combine high performance with ease-of-use. GA exposes a relatively straightforward programming abstraction, while supporting fully-distributed data structures, locality of reference, and high-performance communication. GA was originally formulated in the early 1990’s to provide a communication layer for the Northwest Chemistry (NWChem) suite of chemistry modeling codes that was being developed concurrently.

Particle yields from numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homor, Marietta M.; Jakovác, Antal

2018-04-01

In this paper we use numerical field theoretical simulations to calculate particle yields. We demonstrate that in the model of local particle creation the deviation from the pure exponential distribution is natural even in equilibrium, and an approximate Tsallis-Pareto-like distribution function can be well fitted to the calculated yields, in accordance with the experimental observations. We present numerical simulations in the classical Φ4 model as well as in the SU(3) quantum Yang-Mills theory to clarify this issue.

Modeling of spacecraft charging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whipple, E. C., Jr.

1977-01-01

Three types of modeling of spacecraft charging are discussed: statistical models, parametric models, and physical models. Local time dependence of circuit upset for DoD and communication satellites, and electron current to a sphere with an assumed Debye potential distribution are presented. Four regions were involved in spacecraft charging: (1) undisturbed plasma, (2) plasma sheath region, (3) spacecraft surface, and (4) spacecraft equivalent circuit.

Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2006-01-01

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

2012-12-01

This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

A New Paradigm For Modeling Fault Zone Inelasticity: A Multiscale Continuum Framework Incorporating Spontaneous Localization and Grain Fragmentation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbanna, A. E.

2015-12-01

The brittle portion of the crust contains structural features such as faults, jogs, joints, bends and cataclastic zones that span a wide range of length scales. These features may have a profound effect on earthquake nucleation, propagation and arrest. Incorporating these existing features in modeling and the ability to spontaneously generate new one in response to earthquake loading is crucial for predicting seismicity patterns, distribution of aftershocks and nucleation sites, earthquakes arrest mechanisms, and topological changes in the seismogenic zone structure. Here, we report on our efforts in modeling two important mechanisms contributing to the evolution of fault zone topology: (1) Grain comminution at the submeter scale, and (2) Secondary faulting/plasticity at the scale of few to hundreds of meters. We use the finite element software Abaqus to model the dynamic rupture. The constitutive response of the fault zone is modeled using the Shear Transformation Zone theory, a non-equilibrium statistical thermodynamic framework for modeling plastic deformation and localization in amorphous materials such as fault gouge. The gouge layer is modeled as 2D plane strain region with a finite thickness and heterogeenous distribution of porosity. By coupling the amorphous gouge with the surrounding elastic bulk, the model introduces a set of novel features that go beyond the state of the art. These include: (1) self-consistent rate dependent plasticity with a physically-motivated set of internal variables, (2) non-locality that alleviates mesh dependence of shear band formation, (3) spontaneous evolution of fault roughness and its strike which affects ground motion generation and the local stress fields, and (4) spontaneous evolution of grain size and fault zone fabric.

Modelling malaria incidence by an autoregressive distributed lag model with spatial component.

PubMed

Laguna, Francisco; Grillet, María Eugenia; León, José R; Ludeña, Carenne

2017-08-01

The influence of climatic variables on the dynamics of human malaria has been widely highlighted. Also, it is known that this mosquito-borne infection varies in space and time. However, when the data is spatially incomplete most popular spatio-temporal methods of analysis cannot be applied directly. In this paper, we develop a two step methodology to model the spatio-temporal dependence of malaria incidence on local rainfall, temperature, and humidity as well as the regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern coast of Venezuela. First, we fit an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to the weekly data, and then, we adjust a linear separable spacial vectorial autoregressive model (VAR) to the residuals of the ARDL. Finally, the model parameters are tuned using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure derived from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Our results show that the best model to account for the variations of malaria incidence from 2001 to 2008 in 10 endemic Municipalities in North-Eastern Venezuela is a logit model that included the accumulated local precipitation in combination with the local maximum temperature of the preceding month as positive regressors. Additionally, we show that although malaria dynamics is highly heterogeneous in space, a detailed analysis of the estimated spatial parameters in our model yield important insights regarding the joint behavior of the disease incidence across the different counties in our study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D Thermo-Mechanical Models of Plume-Lithosphere Interactions: Implications for the Kenya rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheck-Wenderoth, M.; Koptev, A.; Sippel, J.

2017-12-01

We present three-dimensional (3D) thermo-mechanical models aiming to explore the interaction of an active mantle plume with heterogeneous pre-stressed lithosphere in the Kenya rift region. As shown by the recent data-driven 3D gravity and thermal modeling (Sippel et al., 2017), the integrated strength of the lithosphere for the region of Kenya and northern Tanzania appears to be strongly controlled by the complex inherited crustal structure, which may have been decisive for the onset, localization and propagation of rifting. In order to test this hypothesis, we have performed a series of ultra-high resolution 3D numerical experiments that include a coupled mantle/lithosphere system in a dynamically and rheologically consistent framework. In contrast to our previous studies assuming a simple and quasi-symmetrical initial condition (Koptev et al., 2015, 2016, 2017), the complex 3D distribution of rock physical properties inferred from geological and geophysical observations (Sippel et al., 2017) has been incorporated into the model setup that comprises a stratified three-layer continental lithosphere composed of an upper and lower crust and lithospheric mantle overlaying the upper mantle. Following the evidence of the presence of a broad low-velocity seismic anomaly under the central parts of the East African Rift system (e.g. Nyblade et al, 2000; Chang et al., 2015), a 200-km radius mantle plume has been seeded at the bottom of a 635 km-depth model box representing a thermal anomaly of 300°C temperature excess. In all model runs, results show that the spatial distribution of surface deformation is indeed strongly controlled by crustal structure: within the southern part of the model box, a localized narrow zone stretched in NS direction (i.e. perpendicularly to applied far-field extension) is aligned along a structural boundary within the lower crust, whereas in the northern part of the model domain, deformation is more diffused and its eastern limit coincides with the eastern side of a weaker unit within the upper crustal layer. This northward transition from more localized to more distributed strain bears some general similarity to the distribution of major faults within the studied area (Chorowicz, 2005).

Modeling, Simulation, and Characterization of Distributed Multi-Agent Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

capabilities (vision, LIDAR , differential global positioning, ultrasonic proximity sensing, etc.), the agents comprising a MAS tend to have somewhat lesser...on the simultaneous localization and mapping ( SLAM ) problem [19]. SLAM acknowledges that externally-provided localization information is not...continually-updated mapping databases, generates a comprehensive representation of the spatial and spectral environment. Many times though, inherent SLAM

Determining the Local Dark Matter Density with SDSS G-dwarf data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverwood, Hamish; Sivertsson, Sofia; Read, Justin; Bertone, Gianfranco; Steger, Pascal

2018-04-01

We present a determination of the local dark matter density derived using the integrated Jeans equation method presented in Silverwood et al. (2016) applied to SDSS-SEGUE G-dwarf data processed by Büdenbender et al. (2015). For our analysis we construct models for the tracer density, dark matter and baryon distribution, and tilt term (linking radial and vertical motions), and then calculate the vertical velocity dispersion using the integrated Jeans equation. These models are then fit to the data using MultiNest, and a posterior distribution for the local dark matter density is derived. We find the most reliable determination to come from the α-young population presented in Büdenbender et al. (2015), yielding a result of ρDM = 0.46+0.07 -0.09 GeV cm-3 = 0.012+0.001 -0.002 M⊙ pc-3. Our results also illuminate the path ahead for future analyses using Gaia DR2 data, highlighting which quantities will need to be determined and which assumptions could be relaxed.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

2008-01-01

Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

Mapping forest functional type in a forest-shrubland ecotone using SPOT imagery and predictive habitat distribution modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

2015-01-01

The availability of land cover data at local scales is an important component in forest management and monitoring efforts. Regional land cover data seldom provide detailed information needed to support local management needs. Here we present a transferable framework to model forest cover by major plant functional type using aerial photos, multi-date Système Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) imagery, and topographic variables. We developed probability of occurrence models for deciduous broad-leaved forest and needle-leaved evergreen forest using logistic regression in the southern portion of the Wyoming Basin Ecoregion. The model outputs were combined into a synthesis map depicting deciduous and coniferous forest cover type. We evaluated the models and synthesis map using a field-validated, independent data source. Results showed strong relationships between forest cover and model variables, and the synthesis map was accurate with an overall correct classification rate of 0.87 and Cohen’s kappa value of 0.81. The results suggest our method adequately captures the functional type, size, and distribution pattern of forest cover in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.

A multistate dynamic site occupancy model for spatially aggregated sessile communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fukaya, Keiichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2017-01-01

Estimation of transition probabilities of sessile communities seems easy in principle but may still be difficult in practice because resampling error (i.e. a failure to resample exactly the same location at fixed points) may cause significant estimation bias. Previous studies have developed novel analytical methods to correct for this estimation bias. However, they did not consider the local structure of community composition induced by the aggregated distribution of organisms that is typically observed in sessile assemblages and is very likely to affect observations.We developed a multistate dynamic site occupancy model to estimate transition probabilities that accounts for resampling errors associated with local community structure. The model applies a nonparametric multivariate kernel smoothing methodology to the latent occupancy component to estimate the local state composition near each observation point, which is assumed to determine the probability distribution of data conditional on the occurrence of resampling error.By using computer simulations, we confirmed that an observation process that depends on local community structure may bias inferences about transition probabilities. By applying the proposed model to a real data set of intertidal sessile communities, we also showed that estimates of transition probabilities and of the properties of community dynamics may differ considerably when spatial dependence is taken into account.Results suggest the importance of accounting for resampling error and local community structure for developing management plans that are based on Markovian models. Our approach provides a solution to this problem that is applicable to broad sessile communities. It can even accommodate an anisotropic spatial correlation of species composition, and may also serve as a basis for inferring complex nonlinear ecological dynamics.

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as `field' or `global' significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING: THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving from simple, local scale problems toward complex, spatially explicit regional ones. Such problems have to be
addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial a...

Placing Local Aggregations in a Larger-Scale Context: Hierarchical Modeling of Black-Footed Albatross Dispersion.

PubMed

Michael, P E; Jahncke, J; Hyrenbach, K D

2016-01-01

At-sea surveys facilitate the study of the distribution and abundance of marine birds along standardized transects, in relation to changes in the local environmental conditions and large-scale oceanographic forcing. We analyzed the form and the intensity of black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes: BFAL) spatial dispersion off central California, using five years (2004-2008) of vessel-based surveys of seven replicated survey lines. We related BFAL patchiness to local, regional and basin-wide oceanographic variability using two complementary approaches: a hypothesis-based model and an exploratory analysis. The former tested the strength and sign of hypothesized BFAL responses to environmental variability, within a hierarchical atmosphere-ocean context. The latter explored BFAL cross-correlations with atmospheric / oceanographic variables. While albatross dispersion was not significantly explained by the hierarchical model, the exploratory analysis revealed that aggregations were influenced by static (latitude, depth) and dynamic (wind speed, upwelling) environmental variables. Moreover, the largest BFAL patches occurred along the survey lines with the highest densities, and in association with shallow banks. In turn, the highest BFAL densities occurred during periods of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index values and low atmospheric pressure. The exploratory analyses suggest that BFAL dispersion is influenced by basin-wide, regional-scale and local environmental variability. Furthermore, the hypothesis-based model highlights that BFAL do not respond to oceanographic variability in a hierarchical fashion. Instead, their distributions shift more strongly in response to large-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing. Thus, interpreting local changes in BFAL abundance and dispersion requires considering diverse environmental forcing operating at multiple scales.

3D CFD Quantification of the Performance of a Multi-Megawatt Wind Turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laursen, J.; Enevoldsen, P.; Hjort, S.

2007-07-01

This paper presents the results of 3D CFD rotor computations of a Siemens SWT-2.3-93 variable speed wind turbine with 45m blades. In the paper CFD is applied to a rotor at stationary wind conditions without wind shear, using the commercial multi-purpose CFD-solvers ANSYS CFX 10.0 and 11.0. When comparing modelled mechanical effects with findings from other models and measurements, good agreement is obtained. Similarly the computed force distributions compare very well, whereas some discrepancies are found when comparing with an in-house BEM model. By applying the reduced axial velocity method the local angle of attack has been derived from the CFD solutions, and from this knowledge and the computed force distributions, local airfoil profile coefficients have been computed and compared to BEM airfoil coefficients. Finally, the transition model of Langtry and Menter is tested on the rotor, and the results are compared with the results from the fully turbulent setup.

Production of black holes and their angular momentum distribution in models with split fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, De-Chang; Starkman, Glenn D.; Stojkovic, Dejan

2006-05-01

In models with TeV-scale gravity it is expected that mini black holes will be produced in near-future accelerators. On the other hand, TeV-scale gravity is plagued with many problems like fast proton decay, unacceptably large n-n¯ oscillations, flavor changing neutral currents, large mixing between leptons, etc. Most of these problems can be solved if different fermions are localized at different points in the extra dimensions. We study the cross section for the production of black holes and their angular momentum distribution in these models with “split” fermions. We find that, for a fixed value of the fundamental mass scale, the total production cross section is reduced compared with models where all the fermions are localized at the same point in the extra dimensions. Fermion splitting also implies that the bulk component of the black hole angular momentum must be taken into account in studies of the black hole decay via Hawking radiation.

Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Pottier, Julien; Malenovský, Zbyněk; Psomas, Achilleas; Homolová, Lucie; Schaepman, Michael E.; Choler, Philippe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guisan, Antoine; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2014-01-01

Remote sensing using airborne imaging spectroscopy (AIS) is known to retrieve fundamental optical properties of ecosystems. However, the value of these properties for predicting plant species distribution remains unclear. Here, we assess whether such data can add value to topographic variables for predicting plant distributions in French and Swiss alpine grasslands. We fitted statistical models with high spectral and spatial resolution reflectance data and tested four optical indices sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water content and leaf area index. We found moderate added-value of AIS data for predicting alpine plant species distribution. Contrary to expectations, differences between species distribution models (SDMs) were not linked to their local abundance or phylogenetic/functional similarity. Moreover, spectral signatures of species were found to be partly site-specific. We discuss current limits of AIS-based SDMs, highlighting issues of scale and informational content of AIS data. PMID:25079495

Correlation between Charge Contrast Imaging and the Distribution of Some Trace Level Impurities in Gibbsite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, Travis C.; Griffin, Brendan J.; Browne, James R.; Lincoln, Frank J.

2000-01-01

Charge contrast images (CCI) of synthetic gibbsite obtained on an environmental scanning electron microscope gives information on the crystallization process. Furthermore, X-ray mapping of the same grains shows that impurities are localized during the initial stages of growth and that the resulting composition images have features similar to these observed in CCI. This suggests a possible correlation between impurity distributions and the emission detected during CCI. X-ray line profiles, simulating the spatial distribution of impurities derived from the Monte Carlo program CASINO, have been compared with experimental line profiles and give an estimate of the localization. The model suggests that a main impurity, Ca, is depleted from the solution within approximately 3 4 [mu]m of growth.

Job Superscheduler Architecture and Performance in Computational Grid Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shan, Hongzhang; Oliker, Leonid; Biswas, Rupak

2003-01-01

Computational grids hold great promise in utilizing geographically separated heterogeneous resources to solve large-scale complex scientific problems. However, a number of major technical hurdles, including distributed resource management and effective job scheduling, stand in the way of realizing these gains. In this paper, we propose a novel grid superscheduler architecture and three distributed job migration algorithms. We also model the critical interaction between the superscheduler and autonomous local schedulers. Extensive performance comparisons with ideal, central, and local schemes using real workloads from leading computational centers are conducted in a simulation environment. Additionally, synthetic workloads are used to perform a detailed sensitivity analysis of our superscheduler. Several key metrics demonstrate that substantial performance gains can be achieved via smart superscheduling in distributed computational grids.

Statistical thermodynamics of a two-dimensional relativistic gas.

PubMed

Montakhab, Afshin; Ghodrat, Malihe; Barati, Mahmood

2009-03-01

In this paper we study a fully relativistic model of a two-dimensional hard-disk gas. This model avoids the general problems associated with relativistic particle collisions and is therefore an ideal system to study relativistic effects in statistical thermodynamics. We study this model using molecular-dynamics simulation, concentrating on the velocity distribution functions. We obtain results for x and y components of velocity in the rest frame (Gamma) as well as the moving frame (Gamma;{'}) . Our results confirm that Jüttner distribution is the correct generalization of Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution. We obtain the same "temperature" parameter beta for both frames consistent with a recent study of a limited one-dimensional model. We also address the controversial topic of temperature transformation. We show that while local thermal equilibrium holds in the moving frame, relying on statistical methods such as distribution functions or equipartition theorem are ultimately inconclusive in deciding on a correct temperature transformation law (if any).

Evaluating the quality of NMR structures by local density of protons.

PubMed

Ban, Yih-En Andrew; Rudolph, Johannes; Zhou, Pei; Edelsbrunner, Herbert

2006-03-01

Evaluating the quality of experimentally determined protein structural models is an essential step toward identifying potential errors and guiding further structural refinement. Herein, we report the use of proton local density as a sensitive measure to assess the quality of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) structures. Using 256 high-resolution crystal structures with protons added and optimized, we show that the local density of different proton types display distinct distributions. These distributions can be characterized by statistical moments and are used to establish local density Z-scores for evaluating both global and local packing for individual protons. Analysis of 546 crystal structures at various resolutions shows that the local density Z-scores increase as the structural resolution decreases and correlate well with the ClashScore (Word et al. J Mol Biol 1999;285(4):1711-1733) generated by all atom contact analysis. Local density Z-scores for NMR structures exhibit a significantly wider range of values than for X-ray structures and demonstrate a combination of potentially problematic inflation and compression. Water-refined NMR structures show improved packing quality. Our analysis of a high-quality structural ensemble of ubiquitin refined against order parameters shows proton density distributions that correlate nearly perfectly with our standards derived from crystal structures, further validating our approach. We present an automated analysis and visualization tool for proton packing to evaluate the quality of NMR structures. 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Can 3D light localization be reached in ‘white paint’?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperling, T.; Schertel, L.; Ackermann, M.; Aubry, G. J.; Aegerter, C. M.; Maret, G.

2016-01-01

When waves scatter multiple times in 3D random media, a disorder driven phase transition from diffusion to localization may occur (Anderson 1958 Phys. Rev. 109 1492-505 Abrahams et al 1979 Phys. Rev. Lett. 42 673-6). In ‘The question of classical localization: a theory of white paint?’ Anderson suggested the possibility to observe light localization in TiO2 samples (Anderson 1985 Phil. Mag. B 52 505-9). We recently claimed the observation of localization effects measuring photon time of flight (ToF) distributions (Störzer et al 2006 Phys. Rev. Lett. 96 063904) and evaluating transmission profiles (TPs) (Sperling et al 2013 Nat. Photonics 7 48-52) in such TiO2 samples. Here we present a careful study of the long time tail of ToF distributions and the long time behavior of the TP width for very thin samples and different turbidities that questions the localization interpretation. We further show new data that allow an alternative consistent explanation of these previous data by a fluorescence process. An adapted diffusion model including an appropriate exponential fluorescence decay accounts for the shape of the ToF distributions and the TP width. These observations question whether the strong localization regime can be reached with visible light scattering in polydisperse TiO2 samples, since the disorder parameter can hardly be increased any further in such a ‘white paint’ material.

Analysis of skin tissues spatial fluorescence distribution by the Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Y Churmakov, D.; Meglinski, I. V.; Piletsky, S. A.; Greenhalgh, D. A.

2003-07-01

A novel Monte Carlo technique of simulation of spatial fluorescence distribution within the human skin is presented. The computational model of skin takes into account the spatial distribution of fluorophores, which would arise due to the structure of collagen fibres, compared to the epidermis and stratum corneum where the distribution of fluorophores is assumed to be homogeneous. The results of simulation suggest that distribution of auto-fluorescence is significantly suppressed in the near-infrared spectral region, whereas the spatial distribution of fluorescence sources within a sensor layer embedded in the epidermis is localized at an `effective' depth.

A distributed predictive control approach for periodic flow-based networks: application to drinking water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosso, Juan M.; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Puig, Vicenç

2017-10-01

This paper proposes a distributed model predictive control approach designed to work in a cooperative manner for controlling flow-based networks showing periodic behaviours. Under this distributed approach, local controllers cooperate in order to enhance the performance of the whole flow network avoiding the use of a coordination layer. Alternatively, controllers use both the monolithic model of the network and the given global cost function to optimise the control inputs of the local controllers but taking into account the effect of their decisions over the remainder subsystems conforming the entire network. In this sense, a global (all-to-all) communication strategy is considered. Although the Pareto optimality cannot be reached due to the existence of non-sparse coupling constraints, the asymptotic convergence to a Nash equilibrium is guaranteed. The resultant strategy is tested and its effectiveness is shown when applied to a large-scale complex flow-based network: the Barcelona drinking water supply system.

Detection prospects for high energy neutrino sources from the anisotropic matter distribution in the local Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertsch, Philipp; Rameez, Mohamed; Tamborra, Irene

2017-03-01

Constraints on the number and luminosity of the sources of the cosmic neutrinos detected by IceCube have been set by targeted searches for point sources. We set complementary constraints by using the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS) catalogue, which maps the matter distribution of the local Universe. Assuming that the distribution of the neutrino sources follows that of matter, we look for correlations between ``warm'' spots on the IceCube skymap and the 2MRS matter distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the expected number of neutrino multiplets and careful modelling of the detector performance (including that of IceCube-Gen2), we demonstrate that sources with local density exceeding 10-6 Mpc-3 and neutrino luminosity Lν lesssim 1042 erg s-1 (1041 erg s-1) will be efficiently revealed by our method using IceCube (IceCube-Gen2). At low luminosities such as will be probed by IceCube-Gen2, the sensitivity of this analysis is superior to requiring statistically significant direct observation of a point source.

Study of In-Trap Ion Clouds by Ion Trajectory Simulations.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoyu; Liu, Xinwei; Cao, Wenbo; Wang, Xiao; Li, Ming; Qiao, Haoxue; Ouyang, Zheng

2018-02-01

Gaussian distribution has been utilized to describe the global number density distribution of ion cloud in the Paul trap, which is known as the thermal equilibrium theory and widely used in theoretical modeling of ion clouds in the ion traps. Using ion trajectory simulations, however, the ion clouds can now also be treated as a dynamic ion flow field and the location-dependent features could now be characterized. This study was carried out to better understand the in-trap ion cloud properties, such as the local particle velocity and temperature. The local ion number densities were found to be heterogeneously distributed in terms of mean and distribution width; the velocity and temperature of the ion flow varied with pressure depending on the flow type of the neutral molecules; and the "quasi-static" equilibrium status can only be achieved after a certain number of collisions, for which the time period is pressure-dependent. This work provides new insights of the ion clouds that are globally stable but subjected to local rf heating and collisional cooling. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

PubMed Central

Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Lenoir, Jonathan; Abdulhak, Sylvain; Aeschimann, David; Dullinger, Stefan; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Guisan, Antoine; Pauli, Harald; Renaud, Julien; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Van Es, Jérémie; Vittoz, Pascal; Willner, Wolfgang; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-01-01

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognised at local scales, but its importance for plant species distributions at larger spatial scales has generally been ignored. Tree cover modifies the local abiotic conditions below the canopy, notably by reducing light availability, and thus, also the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains, by affecting colonisation probabilities and local extinction risks of herbs and shrubs. To assess the effect of tree cover at both the plot- and landscape-grain sizes (approximately 10-m and 1-km), we fit Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) for the plot-level distributions of 960 species of herbs and shrubs using 6,935 vegetation plots across the European Alps. We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) at both spatial grains for each species. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-grain tree cover on plot-level plant communities. Finally, the effects on species-specific elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species distributions under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved the model performance, with the probability of the presence of shade-tolerant species increasing with increasing tree cover, whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both the plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit most strongly at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-level plant communities. With high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited narrower elevational ranges than with low tree cover whereas shade-tolerant species showed wider elevational ranges at both limits. These findings suggest that forecasts of climate-related range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modified by tree cover dynamics. PMID:26290621

Clouds, Wind and the Biogeography of Central American Cloud Forests: Remote Sensing, Atmospheric Modeling, and Walking in the Jungle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawton, R.; Nair, U. S.

2011-12-01

Cloud forests stand at the core of the complex of montane ecosystems that provide the backbone to the multinational Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, which seeks to protect a biodiversity conservation "hotspot" of global significance in an area of rapidly changing land use. Although cloud forests are generally defined by frequent and prolonged immersion in cloud, workers differ in their feelings about "frequent" and "prolonged", and quantitative assessments are rare. Here we focus on the dry season, in which the cloud and mist from orographic cloud plays a critical role in forest water relations, and discuss remote sensing of orographic clouds, and regional and atmospheric modeling at several scales to quantitatively examine the distribution of the atmospheric conditions that characterize cloud forests. Remote sensing using data from GOES reveals diurnal and longer scale patterns in the distribution of dry season orographic clouds in Central America at both regional and local scales. Data from MODIS, used to calculate the base height of orographic cloud banks, reveals not only the geographic distributon of cloud forest sites, but also striking regional variation in the frequency of montane immersion in orographic cloud. At a more local scale, wind is known to have striking effects on forest structure and species distribution in tropical montane ecosystems, both as a general mechanical stress and as the major agent of ecological disturbance. High resolution regional atmospheric modeling using CSU RAMS in the Monteverde cloud forests of Costa Rica provides quantitative information on the spatial distribution of canopy level winds, insight into the spatial structure and local dynamics of cloud forest communities. This information will be useful in not only in local conservation planning and the design of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, but also in assessments of the sensitivity of cloud forests to global and regional climate changes.

ECE-imaging of the H-mode pedestal (invited).

PubMed

Tobias, B J; Austin, M E; Boom, J E; Burrell, K H; Classen, I G J; Domier, C W; Luhmann, N C; Nazikian, R; Snyder, P B

2012-10-01

A synthetic diagnostic has been developed that reproduces the highly structured electron cyclotron emission (ECE) spectrum radiated from the edge region of H-mode discharges. The modeled dependence on local perturbations of the equilibrium plasma pressure allows for interpretation of ECE data for diagnosis of local quantities. Forward modeling of the diagnostic response in this region allows for improved mapping of the observed fluctuations to flux surfaces within the plasma, allowing for the poloidal mode number of coherent structures to be resolved. In addition, other spectral features that are dependent on both T(e) and n(e) contain information about pedestal structure and the electron energy distribution of localized phenomena, such as edge filaments arising during edge-localized mode (ELM) activity.

Anderson localization in sigma models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruckmann, Falk; Wellnhofer, Jacob

2018-03-01

In QCD above the chiral restoration temperature there exists an Anderson transition in the fermion spectrum from localized to delocalized modes. We investigate whether the same holds for nonlinear sigma models which share properties like dynamical mass generation and asymptotic freedom with QCD. In particular we study the spectra of fermions coupled to (quenched) CP(N-1) configurations at high temperatures. We compare results in two and three space-time dimensions: in two dimensions the Anderson transition is absent, since all fermion modes are localized, while in three dimensions it is present. Our measurements include a more recent observable characterizing level spacings: the distribution of ratios of consecutive level spacings.

Seychelles Fisheries Connectivity and Transport Pathways

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Seychelles Fisheries Connectivity and Transport Pathways...Plateau. • Identification of physical oceanographic controls on mass and momentum transport on scales that are relevant to local ecology and fisheries and...Development of basic regional modeling capacity that Seychelles managers and fisheries can use to guide decisions and improve community outreach and

Unidirectional random growth with resetting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biró, T. S.; Néda, Z.

2018-06-01

We review stochastic processes without detailed balance condition and derive their H-theorem. We obtain stationary distributions and investigate their stability in terms of generalized entropic distances beyond the Kullback-Leibler formula. A simple stochastic model with local growth rates and direct resetting to the ground state is investigated and applied to various networks, scientific citations and Facebook popularity, hadronic yields in high energy particle reactions, income and wealth distributions, biodiversity and settlement size distributions.

A general framework for predicting delayed responses of ecological communities to habitat loss.

PubMed

Chen, Youhua; Shen, Tsung-Jen

2017-04-20

Although biodiversity crisis at different spatial scales has been well recognised, the phenomena of extinction debt and immigration credit at a crossing-scale context are, at best, unclear. Based on two community patterns, regional species abundance distribution (SAD) and spatial abundance distribution (SAAD), Kitzes and Harte (2015) presented a macroecological framework for predicting post-disturbance delayed extinction patterns in the entire ecological community. In this study, we further expand this basic framework to predict diverse time-lagged effects of habitat destruction on local communities. Specifically, our generalisation of KH's model could address the questions that could not be answered previously: (1) How many species are subjected to delayed extinction in a local community when habitat is destructed in other areas? (2) How do rare or endemic species contribute to extinction debt or immigration credit of the local community? (3) How will species differ between two local areas? From the demonstrations using two SAD models (single-parameter lognormal and logseries), the predicted patterns of the debt, credit, and change in the fraction of unique species can vary, but with consistencies and depending on several factors. The general framework deepens the understanding of the theoretical effects of habitat loss on community dynamic patterns in local samples.

Exact solution of equations for proton localization in neutron star matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubis, Sebastian; Wójcik, Włodzimierz

2015-11-01

The rigorous treatment of proton localization phenomenon in asymmetric nuclear matter is presented. The solution of proton wave function and neutron background distribution is found by the use of the extended Thomas-Fermi approach. The minimum of energy is obtained in the Wigner-Seitz approximation of a spherically symmetric cell. The analysis of four different nuclear models suggests that the proton localization is likely to take place in the interior of a neutron star.

Formation and distribution of fragments in the spontaneous fission of 240Pu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadhukhan, Jhilam; Zhang, Chunli; Nazarewicz, Witold; Schunck, Nicolas

2017-12-01

Background: Fission is a fundamental decay mode of heavy atomic nuclei. The prevalent theoretical approach is based on mean-field theory and its extensions where fission is modeled as a large amplitude motion of a nucleus in a multidimensional collective space. One of the important observables characterizing fission is the charge and mass distribution of fission fragments. Purpose: The goal of this Rapid Communication is to better understand the structure of fission fragment distributions by investigating the competition between the static structure of the collective manifold and the stochastic dynamics. In particular, we study the characteristics of the tails of yield distributions, which correspond to very asymmetric fission into a very heavy and a very light fragment. Methods: We use the stochastic Langevin framework to simulate the nuclear evolution after the system tunnels through the multidimensional potential barrier. For a representative sample of different initial configurations along the outer turning-point line, we define effective fission paths by computing a large number of Langevin trajectories. We extract the relative contribution of each such path to the fragment distribution. We then use nucleon localization functions along effective fission pathways to analyze the characteristics of prefragments at prescission configurations. Results: We find that non-Newtonian Langevin trajectories, strongly impacted by the random force, produce the tails of the fission fragment distribution of 240Pu. The prefragments deduced from nucleon localizations are formed early and change little as the nucleus evolves towards scission. On the other hand, the system contains many nucleons that are not localized in the prefragments even near the scission point. Such nucleons are distributed rapidly at scission to form the final fragments. Fission prefragments extracted from direct integration of the density and from the localization functions typically differ by more than 30 nucleons even near scission. Conclusions: Our Rapid Communication shows that only theoretical models of fission that account for some form of stochastic dynamics can give an accurate description of the structure of fragment distributions. In particular, it should be nearly impossible to predict the tails of these distributions within the standard formulation of time-dependent density-functional theory. At the same time, the large number of nonlocalized nucleons during fission suggests that adiabatic approaches where the interplay between intrinsic excitations and collective dynamics is neglected are ill suited to describe fission fragment properties, in particular, their excitation energy.

A rationale for continuing mass antibiotic distributions for trachoma

PubMed Central

Ray, Kathryn J; Porco, Travis C; Hong, Kevin C; Lee, David C; Alemayehu, Wondu; Melese, Muluken; Lakew, Takele; Yi, Elizabeth; House, Jenafir; Chidambaram, Jaya D; Whitcher, John P; Gaynor, Bruce D; Lietman, Thomas M

2007-01-01

Background The World Health Organization recommends periodic mass antibiotic distributions to reduce the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma, the world's leading cause of infectious blindness. Their stated goal is to control infection, not to completely eliminate it. A single mass distribution can dramatically reduce the prevalence of infection. However, if infection is not eliminated in every individual in the community, it may gradually return back into the community, so often repeated treatments are necessary. Since public health groups are reluctant to distribute antibiotics indefinitely, we are still in need of a proven long-term rationale. Here we use mathematical models to demonstrate that repeated antibiotic distributions can eliminate infection in a reasonable time period. Methods We fit parameters of a stochastic epidemiological transmission model to data collected before and 6 months after a mass antibiotic distribution in a region of Ethiopia that is one of the most severely affected areas in the world. We validate the model by comparing our predicted results to Ethiopian data which was collected biannually for two years past the initial mass antibiotic distribution. We use the model to simulate the effect of different treatment programs in terms of local elimination of infection. Results Simulations show that the average prevalence of infection across all villages progressively decreases after each treatment, as long as the frequency and coverage of antibiotics are high enough. Infection can be eliminated in more villages with each round of treatment. However, in the communities where infection is not eliminated, it returns to the same average level, forming the same stationary distribution. This phenomenon is also seen in subsequent epidemiological data from Ethiopia. Simulations suggest that a biannual treatment plan implemented for 5 years will lead to elimination in 95% of all villages. Conclusion Local elimination from a community is theoretically possible, even in the most severely infected communities. However, elimination from larger areas may require repeated biannual treatments and prevention of re-introduction from outside to treated areas. PMID:17683646

A rationale for continuing mass antibiotic distributions for trachoma.

PubMed

Ray, Kathryn J; Porco, Travis C; Hong, Kevin C; Lee, David C; Alemayehu, Wondu; Melese, Muluken; Lakew, Takele; Yi, Elizabeth; House, Jenafir; Chidambaram, Jaya D; Whitcher, John P; Gaynor, Bruce D; Lietman, Thomas M

2007-08-07

The World Health Organization recommends periodic mass antibiotic distributions to reduce the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma, the world's leading cause of infectious blindness. Their stated goal is to control infection, not to completely eliminate it. A single mass distribution can dramatically reduce the prevalence of infection. However, if infection is not eliminated in every individual in the community, it may gradually return back into the community, so often repeated treatments are necessary. Since public health groups are reluctant to distribute antibiotics indefinitely, we are still in need of a proven long-term rationale. Here we use mathematical models to demonstrate that repeated antibiotic distributions can eliminate infection in a reasonable time period. We fit parameters of a stochastic epidemiological transmission model to data collected before and 6 months after a mass antibiotic distribution in a region of Ethiopia that is one of the most severely affected areas in the world. We validate the model by comparing our predicted results to Ethiopian data which was collected biannually for two years past the initial mass antibiotic distribution. We use the model to simulate the effect of different treatment programs in terms of local elimination of infection. Simulations show that the average prevalence of infection across all villages progressively decreases after each treatment, as long as the frequency and coverage of antibiotics are high enough. Infection can be eliminated in more villages with each round of treatment. However, in the communities where infection is not eliminated, it returns to the same average level, forming the same stationary distribution. This phenomenon is also seen in subsequent epidemiological data from Ethiopia. Simulations suggest that a biannual treatment plan implemented for 5 years will lead to elimination in 95% of all villages. Local elimination from a community is theoretically possible, even in the most severely infected communities. However, elimination from larger areas may require repeated biannual treatments and prevention of re-introduction from outside to treated areas.

Automatic enhancement of skin fluorescence localization due to refractive index matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churmakov, Dmitry Y.; Meglinski, Igor V.; Piletsky, Sergey A.; Greenhalgh, Douglas A.

2004-07-01

Fluorescence diagnostic techniques are notable amongst many other optical methods, as they offer high sensitivity and non-invasive measurements of tissue properties. However, a combination of multiple scattering and physical heterogeneity of biological tissues hampers the interpretation of the fluorescence measurements. The analyses of the spatial distribution of endogenous and exogenous fluorophores excitations within tissues and their contribution to the detected signal localization are essential for many applications. We have developed a novel Monte Carlo technique that gives a graphical perception of how the excitation and fluorescence detected signal are localized in tissues. Our model takes into account spatial distribution of fluorophores and their quantum yields. We demonstrate that matching of the refractive indices of ambient medium and topical skin layer improves spatial localization of the detected fluorescence signal within the tissue. This result is consistent with the recent conclusion that administering biocompatible agents results in higher image contrast.

Dielectric relaxation and localized electron hopping in colossal dielectric (Nb,In)-doped TiO2 rutile nanoceramics.

PubMed

Tsuji, Kosuke; Han, HyukSu; Guillemet-Fritsch, Sophie; Randall, Clive A

2017-03-28

Dielectric spectroscopy was performed on a Nb and In co-doped rutile TiO 2 nano-crystalline ceramic (n-NITO) synthesized by a low-temperature spark plasma sintering (SPS) technique. The dielectric properties of the n-NITO were not largely affected by the metal electrode contacts. Huge dielectric relaxation was observed at a very low temperature below 35 K. Both the activation energy and relaxation time suggested that the electronic hopping motion is the underlying mechanism responsible for the colossal dielectric permittivity (CP) and its relaxation, instead of the internal barrier layer effect or a dipolar relaxation. With Havriliak-Negami (H-N) fitting, a relaxation time with a large distribution of dielectric relaxations was revealed. The broad distributed relaxation phenomena indicated that Nb and In were involved, controlling the dielectric relaxation by modifying the polarization mechanism and localized states. The associated distribution function is calculated and presented. The frequency-dependent a.c. conductance is successfully explained by a hopping conduction model of the localized electrons with the distribution function. It is demonstrated that the dielectric relaxation is strongly correlated with the hopping electrons in the localized states. The CP in SPS n-NITO is then ascribed to a hopping polarization.

Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode choice data set, and find that model selection is invariant to prior specification, while model derivatives like willingness-to-pay are notably sensitive to model choice. I also find that the Laplace approximation is remarkably accurate in spite of the potential for nested logit models to have irregular likelihood surfaces.

GIS Modeling of Air Toxics Releases from TRI-Reporting and Non-TRI-Reporting Facilities: Impacts for Environmental Justice

PubMed Central

Dolinoy, Dana C.; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2004-01-01

The Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) requires facilities with 10 or more full-time employees that process > 25,000 pounds in aggregate or use > 10,000 pounds of any one TRI chemical to report releases annually. However, little is known about releases from non-TRI-reporting facilities, nor has attention been given to the very localized equity impacts associated with air toxics releases. Using geographic information systems and industrial source complex dispersion modeling, we developed methods for characterizing air releases from TRI-reporting as well as non-TRI-reporting facilities at four levels of geographic resolution. We characterized the spatial distribution and concentration of air releases from one representative industry in Durham County, North Carolina (USA). Inclusive modeling of all facilities rather than modeling of TRI sites alone significantly alters the magnitude and spatial distribution of modeled air concentrations. Modeling exposure receptors at more refined levels of geographic resolution reveals localized, neighborhood-level exposure hot spots that are not apparent at coarser geographic scales. Multivariate analysis indicates that inclusive facility modeling at fine levels of geographic resolution reveals exposure disparities by income and race. These new methods significantly enhance the ability to model air toxics, perform equity analysis, and clarify conflicts in the literature regarding environmental justice findings. This work has substantial implications for how to structure TRI reporting requirements, as well as methods and types of analysis that will successfully elucidate the spatial distribution of exposure potentials across geographic, income, and racial lines. PMID:15579419

A compound scattering pdf for the ultrasonic echo envelope and its relationship to K and Nakagami distributions.

PubMed

Shankar, P Mohana

2003-03-01

A compound probability density function (pdf) is presented to describe the envelope of the backscattered echo from tissue. This pdf allows local and global variation in scattering cross sections in tissue. The ultrasonic backscattering cross sections are assumed to be gamma distributed. The gamma distribution also is used to model the randomness in the average cross sections. This gamma-gamma model results in the compound scattering pdf for the envelope. The relationship of this compound pdf to the Rayleigh, K, and Nakagami distributions is explored through an analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio of the envelopes and random number simulations. The three parameter compound pdf appears to be flexible enough to represent envelope statistics giving rise to Rayleigh, K, and Nakagami distributions.

Trouble with diffusion: Reassessing hillslope erosion laws with a particle-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, Gregory E.; Bradley, D. Nathan

2010-03-01

Many geomorphic systems involve a broad distribution of grain motion length scales, ranging from a few particle diameters to the length of an entire hillslope or stream. Studies of analogous physical systems have revealed that such broad motion distributions can have a significant impact on macroscale dynamics and can violate the assumptions behind standard, local gradient flux laws. Here, a simple particle-based model of sediment transport on a hillslope is used to study the relationship between grain motion statistics and macroscopic landform evolution. Surface grains are dislodged by random disturbance events with probabilities and distances that depend on local microtopography. Despite its simplicity, the particle model reproduces a surprisingly broad range of slope forms, including asymmetric degrading scarps and cinder cone profiles. At low slope angles the dynamics are diffusion like, with a short-range, thin-tailed hop length distribution, a parabolic, convex upward equilibrium slope form, and a linear relationship between transport rate and gradient. As slope angle steepens, the characteristic grain motion length scale begins to approach the length of the slope, leading to planar equilibrium forms that show a strongly nonlinear correlation between transport rate and gradient. These high-probability, long-distance motions violate the locality assumption embedded in many common gradient-based geomorphic transport laws. The example of a degrading scarp illustrates the potential for grain motion dynamics to vary in space and time as topography evolves. This characteristic renders models based on independent, stationary statistics inapplicable. An accompanying analytical framework based on treating grain motion as a survival process is briefly outlined.

A Variational Level Set Approach Based on Local Entropy for Image Segmentation and Bias Field Correction.

PubMed

Tang, Jian; Jiang, Xiaoliang

2017-01-01

Image segmentation has always been a considerable challenge in image analysis and understanding due to the intensity inhomogeneity, which is also commonly known as bias field. In this paper, we present a novel region-based approach based on local entropy for segmenting images and estimating the bias field simultaneously. Firstly, a local Gaussian distribution fitting (LGDF) energy function is defined as a weighted energy integral, where the weight is local entropy derived from a grey level distribution of local image. The means of this objective function have a multiplicative factor that estimates the bias field in the transformed domain. Then, the bias field prior is fully used. Therefore, our model can estimate the bias field more accurately. Finally, minimization of this energy function with a level set regularization term, image segmentation, and bias field estimation can be achieved. Experiments on images of various modalities demonstrated the superior performance of the proposed method when compared with other state-of-the-art approaches.

Simulations of ultra-high energy cosmic rays in the local Universe and the origin of cosmic magnetic fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackstein, S.; Vazza, F.; Brüggen, M.; Sorce, J. G.; Gottlöber, S.

2018-04-01

We simulate the propagation of cosmic rays at ultra-high energies, ≳1018 eV, in models of extragalactic magnetic fields in constrained simulations of the local Universe. We use constrained initial conditions with the cosmological magnetohydrodynamics code ENZO. The resulting models of the distribution of magnetic fields in the local Universe are used in the CRPROPA code to simulate the propagation of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. We investigate the impact of six different magneto-genesis scenarios, both primordial and astrophysical, on the propagation of cosmic rays over cosmological distances. Moreover, we study the influence of different source distributions around the Milky Way. Our study shows that different scenarios of magneto-genesis do not have a large impact on the anisotropy measurements of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. However, at high energies above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin (GZK)-limit, there is anisotropy caused by the distribution of nearby sources, independent of the magnetic field model. This provides a chance to identify cosmic ray sources with future full-sky measurements and high number statistics at the highest energies. Finally, we compare our results to the dipole signal measured by the Pierre Auger Observatory. All our source models and magnetic field models could reproduce the observed dipole amplitude with a pure iron injection composition. Our results indicate that the dipole is observed due to clustering of secondary nuclei in direction of nearby sources of heavy nuclei. A light injection composition is disfavoured, since the increase in dipole angular power from 4 to 8 EeV is too slow compared to observation by the Pierre Auger Observatory.

Clarifying the Hubble constant tension with a Bayesian hierarchical model of the local distance ladder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feeney, Stephen M.; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Dalmasso, Niccolò

2018-05-01

Estimates of the Hubble constant, H0, from the local distance ladder and from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) are discrepant at the ˜3σ level, indicating a potential issue with the standard Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. A probabilistic (i.e. Bayesian) interpretation of this tension requires a model comparison calculation, which in turn depends strongly on the tails of the H0 likelihoods. Evaluating the tails of the local H0 likelihood requires the use of non-Gaussian distributions to faithfully represent anchor likelihoods and outliers, and simultaneous fitting of the complete distance-ladder data set to ensure correct uncertainty propagation. We have hence developed a Bayesian hierarchical model of the full distance ladder that does not rely on Gaussian distributions and allows outliers to be modelled without arbitrary data cuts. Marginalizing over the full ˜3000-parameter joint posterior distribution, we find H0 = (72.72 ± 1.67) km s-1 Mpc-1 when applied to the outlier-cleaned Riess et al. data, and (73.15 ± 1.78) km s-1 Mpc-1 with supernova outliers reintroduced (the pre-cut Cepheid data set is not available). Using our precise evaluation of the tails of the H0 likelihood, we apply Bayesian model comparison to assess the evidence for deviation from ΛCDM given the distance-ladder and CMB data. The odds against ΛCDM are at worst ˜10:1 when considering the Planck 2015 XIII data, regardless of outlier treatment, considerably less dramatic than naïvely implied by the 2.8σ discrepancy. These odds become ˜60:1 when an approximation to the more-discrepant Planck Intermediate XLVI likelihood is included.

Spatial Distribution and Secular Variation of Geomagnetic Filed in China Described by the CHAOS-6 Model and its Error Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Gu, Z.; Chen, B.; Yuan, J.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

The CHAOS-6 geomagnetic field model, presented in 2016 by the Denmark's national space institute (DTU Space), is a model of the near-Earth magnetic field. According the CHAOS-6 model, seven component data of geomagnetic filed at 30 observatories in China in 2015 and at 3 observatories in China spanning the time interval 2008.0-2016.5 were calculated. Also seven component data of geomagnetic filed from the geomagnetic data of practical observations in China was obtained. Based on the model calculated data and the practical data, we have compared and analyzed the spatial distribution and the secular variation of the geomagnetic field in China. There is obvious difference between the two type data. The CHAOS-6 model cannot describe the spatial distribution and the secular variation of the geomagnetic field in China with comparative precision because of the regional and local magnetic anomalies in China.

A Hierarchy of Heuristic-Based Models of Crowd Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degond, P.; Appert-Rolland, C.; Moussaïd, M.; Pettré, J.; Theraulaz, G.

2013-09-01

We derive a hierarchy of kinetic and macroscopic models from a noisy variant of the heuristic behavioral Individual-Based Model of Ngai et al. (Disaster Med. Public Health Prep. 3:191-195, 2009) where pedestrians are supposed to have constant speeds. This IBM supposes that pedestrians seek the best compromise between navigation towards their target and collisions avoidance. We first propose a kinetic model for the probability distribution function of pedestrians. Then, we derive fluid models and propose three different closure relations. The first two closures assume that the velocity distribution function is either a Dirac delta or a von Mises-Fisher distribution respectively. The third closure results from a hydrodynamic limit associated to a Local Thermodynamical Equilibrium. We develop an analogy between this equilibrium and Nash equilibria in a game theoretic framework. In each case, we discuss the features of the models and their suitability for practical use.

Local gravity and large-scale structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juszkiewicz, Roman; Vittorio, Nicola; Wyse, Rosemary F. G.

1990-01-01

The magnitude and direction of the observed dipole anisotropy of the galaxy distribution can in principle constrain the amount of large-scale power present in the spectrum of primordial density fluctuations. This paper confronts the data, provided by a recent redshift survey of galaxies detected by the IRAS satellite, with the predictions of two cosmological models with very different levels of large-scale power: the biased Cold Dark Matter dominated model (CDM) and a baryon-dominated model (BDM) with isocurvature initial conditions. Model predictions are investigated for the Local Group peculiar velocity, v(R), induced by mass inhomogeneities distributed out to a given radius, R, for R less than about 10,000 km/s. Several convergence measures for v(R) are developed, which can become powerful cosmological tests when deep enough samples become available. For the present data sets, the CDM and BDM predictions are indistinguishable at the 2 sigma level and both are consistent with observations. A promising discriminant between cosmological models is the misalignment angle between v(R) and the apex of the dipole anisotropy of the microwave background.

Discrete Analysis of Damage and Shear Banding in Argillaceous Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinç, Özge; Scholtès, Luc

2018-05-01

A discrete approach is proposed to study damage and failure processes taking place in argillaceous rocks which present a transversely isotropic behavior. More precisely, a dedicated discrete element method is utilized to provide a micromechanical description of the mechanisms involved. The purpose of the study is twofold: (1) presenting a three-dimensional discrete element model able to simulate the anisotropic macro-mechanical behavior of the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone as a particular case of argillaceous rocks; (2) studying how progressive failure develops in such material. Material anisotropy is explicitly taken into account in the numerical model through the introduction of weakness planes distributed at the interparticle scale following predefined orientation and intensity. Simulations of compression tests under plane-strain and triaxial conditions are performed to clarify the development of damage and the appearance of shear bands through micromechanical analyses. The overall mechanical behavior and shear banding patterns predicted by the numerical model are in good agreement with respect to experimental observations. Both tensile and shear microcracks emerging from the modeling also present characteristics compatible with microstructural observations. The numerical results confirm that the global failure of argillaceous rocks is well correlated with the mechanisms taking place at the local scale. Specifically, strain localization is shown to directly result from shear microcracking developing with a preferential orientation distribution related to the orientation of the shear band. In addition, localization events presenting characteristics similar to shear bands are observed from the early stages of the loading and might thus be considered as precursors of strain localization.

Development of the PHAST model: generating standard public health services data and evidence for decision-making.

PubMed

Bekemeier, Betty; Park, Seungeun

2018-04-01

Standardized data regarding the distribution, quality, reach, and variation in public health services provided at the community level and in wide use across states and communities do not exist. This leaves a major gap in our nation's understanding of the value of prevention activities and, in particular, the contributions of our government public health agencies charged with assuring community health promotion and protection. Public health and community leaders, therefore, are eager for accessible and comparable data regarding preventive services that can inform policy decisions about where to invest resources. We used literature review and a practice-based approach, employing an iterative process to identify factors that facilitate data provision among public health practitioners. This paper describes the model, systematically developed by our research team and with input from practice partners, that guides our process toward maximizing the uptake and integration of these standardized measures into state and local data collection systems. The model we developed, using a dissemination and implementation science framework, is intended to foster greater interest in and accountability for data collection around local health department services and to facilitate spatial exploration and statistical analysis of local health department service distribution, change, and performance. Our model is the first of its kind to thoroughly develop a means to guide research and practice in realizing the National Academy of Medicine's recommendation for developing systems to measure and track state and local public health system contributions to population health.

Hidden Markov model-derived structural alphabet for proteins: the learning of protein local shapes captures sequence specificity.

PubMed

Camproux, A C; Tufféry, P

2005-08-05

Understanding and predicting protein structures depend on the complexity and the accuracy of the models used to represent them. We have recently set up a Hidden Markov Model to optimally compress protein three-dimensional conformations into a one-dimensional series of letters of a structural alphabet. Such a model learns simultaneously the shape of representative structural letters describing the local conformation and the logic of their connections, i.e. the transition matrix between the letters. Here, we move one step further and report some evidence that such a model of protein local architecture also captures some accurate amino acid features. All the letters have specific and distinct amino acid distributions. Moreover, we show that words of amino acids can have significant propensities for some letters. Perspectives point towards the prediction of the series of letters describing the structure of a protein from its amino acid sequence.

Modeling evolution of spatially distributed bacterial communities: a simulation with the haploid evolutionary constructor

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Multiscale approaches for integrating submodels of various levels of biological organization into a single model became the major tool of systems biology. In this paper, we have constructed and simulated a set of multiscale models of spatially distributed microbial communities and study an influence of unevenly distributed environmental factors on the genetic diversity and evolution of the community members. Results Haploid Evolutionary Constructor software http://evol-constructor.bionet.nsc.ru/ was expanded by adding the tool for the spatial modeling of a microbial community (1D, 2D and 3D versions). A set of the models of spatially distributed communities was built to demonstrate that the spatial distribution of cells affects both intensity of selection and evolution rate. Conclusion In spatially heterogeneous communities, the change in the direction of the environmental flow might be reflected in local irregular population dynamics, while the genetic structure of populations (frequencies of the alleles) remains stable. Furthermore, in spatially heterogeneous communities, the chemotaxis might dramatically affect the evolution of community members. PMID:25708911

Dynamic N -occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data

Treesearch

Sam Rossman; Charles B. Yackulic; Sarah P. Saunders; Janice Reid; Ray Davis; Elise F. Zipkin

2016-01-01

Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model (“dynamic

A mechanistic compartmental model for total antibody uptake in tumors.

PubMed

Thurber, Greg M; Dane Wittrup, K

2012-12-07

Antibodies are under development to treat a variety of cancers, such as lymphomas, colon, and breast cancer. A major limitation to greater efficacy for this class of drugs is poor distribution in vivo. Localization of antibodies occurs slowly, often in insufficient therapeutic amounts, and distributes heterogeneously throughout the tumor. While the microdistribution around individual vessels is important for many therapies, the total amount of antibody localized in the tumor is paramount for many applications such as imaging, determining the therapeutic index with antibody drug conjugates, and dosing in radioimmunotherapy. With imaging and pretargeted therapeutic strategies, the time course of uptake is critical in determining when to take an image or deliver a secondary reagent. We present here a simple mechanistic model of antibody uptake and retention that captures the major rates that determine the time course of antibody concentration within a tumor including dose, affinity, plasma clearance, target expression, internalization, permeability, and vascularization. Since many of the parameters are known or can be estimated in vitro, this model can approximate the time course of antibody concentration in tumors to aid in experimental design, data interpretation, and strategies to improve localization. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mechanistic compartmental model for total antibody uptake in tumors

PubMed Central

Thurber, Greg M.; Dane Wittrup, K.

2012-01-01

Antibodies are under development to treat a variety of cancers, such as lymphomas, colon, and breast cancer. A major limitation to greater efficacy for this class of drugs is poor distribution in vivo. Localization of antibodies occurs slowly, often in insufficient therapeutic amounts, and distributes heterogeneously throughout the tumor. While the microdistribution around individual vessels is important for many therapies, the total amount of antibody localized in the tumor is paramount for many applications such as imaging, determining the therapeutic index with antibody drug conjugates, and dosing in radioimmunotherapy. With imaging and pretargeted therapeutic strategies, the time course of uptake is critical in determining when to take an image or deliver a secondary reagent. We present here a simple mechanistic model of antibody uptake and retention that captures the major rates that determine the time course of antibody concentration within a tumor including dose, affinity, plasma clearance, target expression, internalization, permeability, and vascularization. Since many of the parameters are known or can be estimated in vitro, this model can approximate the time course of antibody concentration in tumors to aid in experimental design, data interpretation, and strategies to improve localization. PMID:22974563

Cluster dynamics and cluster size distributions in systems of self-propelled particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peruani, F.; Schimansky-Geier, L.; Bär, M.

2010-12-01

Systems of self-propelled particles (SPP) interacting by a velocity alignment mechanism in the presence of noise exhibit rich clustering dynamics. Often, clusters are responsible for the distribution of (local) information in these systems. Here, we investigate the properties of individual clusters in SPP systems, in particular the asymmetric spreading behavior of clusters with respect to their direction of motion. In addition, we formulate a Smoluchowski-type kinetic model to describe the evolution of the cluster size distribution (CSD). This model predicts the emergence of steady-state CSDs in SPP systems. We test our theoretical predictions in simulations of SPP with nematic interactions and find that our simple kinetic model reproduces qualitatively the transition to aggregation observed in simulations.

Parallel volume ray-casting for unstructured-grid data on distributed-memory architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Kwan-Liu

1995-01-01

As computing technology continues to advance, computational modeling of scientific and engineering problems produces data of increasing complexity: large in size and unstructured in shape. Volume visualization of such data is a challenging problem. This paper proposes a distributed parallel solution that makes ray-casting volume rendering of unstructured-grid data practical. Both the data and the rendering process are distributed among processors. At each processor, ray-casting of local data is performed independent of the other processors. The global image composing processes, which require inter-processor communication, are overlapped with the local ray-casting processes to achieve maximum parallel efficiency. This algorithm differs from previous ones in four ways: it is completely distributed, less view-dependent, reasonably scalable, and flexible. Without using dynamic load balancing, test results on the Intel Paragon using from two to 128 processors show, on average, about 60% parallel efficiency.

Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

2011-01-01

1. Assessing spatial distributions of threatened large carnivores at landscape scales poses formidable challenges because of their rarity and elusiveness. As a consequence of logistical constraints, investigators typically rely on sign surveys. Most survey methods, however, do not explicitly address the central problem of imperfect detections of animal signs in the field, leading to underestimates of true habitat occupancy and distribution. 2. We assessed habitat occupancy for a tiger Panthera tigris metapopulation across a c. 38 000-km2 landscape in India, employing a spatially replicated survey to explicitly address imperfect detections. Ecological predictions about tiger presence were confronted with sign detection data generated from occupancy sampling of 205 sites, each of 188 km2. 3. A recent occupancy model that considers Markovian dependency among sign detections on spatial replicates performed better than the standard occupancy model (ΔAIC = 184·9). A formulation of this model that fitted the data best showed that density of ungulate prey and levels of human disturbance were key determinants of local tiger presence. Model averaging resulted in a replicate-level detection probability [inline image] = 0·17 (0·17) for signs and a tiger habitat occupancy estimate of [inline image] = 0·665 (0·0857) or 14 076 (1814) km2 of potential habitat of 21 167 km2. In contrast, a traditional presence-versus-absence approach underestimated occupancy by 47%. Maps of probabilities of local site occupancy clearly identified tiger source populations at higher densities and matched observed tiger density variations, suggesting their potential utility for population assessments at landscape scales. 4. Synthesis and applications. Landscape-scale sign surveys can efficiently assess large carnivore spatial distributions and elucidate the factors governing their local presence, provided ecological and observation processes are both explicitly modelled. Occupancy sampling using spatial replicates can be used to reliably and efficiently identify tiger population sources and help monitor metapopulations. Our results reinforce earlier findings that prey depletion and human disturbance are key drivers of local tiger extinctions and tigers can persist even in human-dominated landscapes through effective protection of source populations. Our approach facilitates efficient targeting of tiger conservation interventions and, more generally, provides a basis for the reliable integration of large carnivore monitoring data between local and landscape scales.

Study on Finite Element Model Updating in Highway Bridge Static Loading Test Using Spatially-Distributed Optical Fiber Sensors

PubMed Central

Wu, Bitao; Lu, Huaxi; Chen, Bo; Gao, Zhicheng

2017-01-01

A finite model updating method that combines dynamic-static long-gauge strain responses is proposed for highway bridge static loading tests. For this method, the objective function consisting of static long-gauge stains and the first order modal macro-strain parameter (frequency) is established, wherein the local bending stiffness, density and boundary conditions of the structures are selected as the design variables. The relationship between the macro-strain and local element stiffness was studied first. It is revealed that the macro-strain is inversely proportional to the local stiffness covered by the long-gauge strain sensor. This corresponding relation is important for the modification of the local stiffness based on the macro-strain. The local and global parameters can be simultaneously updated. Then, a series of numerical simulation and experiments were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the static deformation, macro-strain and macro-strain modal can be predicted well by using the proposed updating model. PMID:28753912

Study on Finite Element Model Updating in Highway Bridge Static Loading Test Using Spatially-Distributed Optical Fiber Sensors.

PubMed

Wu, Bitao; Lu, Huaxi; Chen, Bo; Gao, Zhicheng

2017-07-19

A finite model updating method that combines dynamic-static long-gauge strain responses is proposed for highway bridge static loading tests. For this method, the objective function consisting of static long-gauge stains and the first order modal macro-strain parameter (frequency) is established, wherein the local bending stiffness, density and boundary conditions of the structures are selected as the design variables. The relationship between the macro-strain and local element stiffness was studied first. It is revealed that the macro-strain is inversely proportional to the local stiffness covered by the long-gauge strain sensor. This corresponding relation is important for the modification of the local stiffness based on the macro-strain. The local and global parameters can be simultaneously updated. Then, a series of numerical simulation and experiments were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the static deformation, macro-strain and macro-strain modal can be predicted well by using the proposed updating model.

The feasibility and stability of large complex biological networks: a random matrix approach.

PubMed

Stone, Lewi

2018-05-29

In the 70's, Robert May demonstrated that complexity creates instability in generic models of ecological networks having random interaction matrices A. Similar random matrix models have since been applied in many disciplines. Central to assessing stability is the "circular law" since it describes the eigenvalue distribution for an important class of random matrices A. However, despite widespread adoption, the "circular law" does not apply for ecological systems in which density-dependence operates (i.e., where a species growth is determined by its density). Instead one needs to study the far more complicated eigenvalue distribution of the community matrix S = DA, where D is a diagonal matrix of population equilibrium values. Here we obtain this eigenvalue distribution. We show that if the random matrix A is locally stable, the community matrix S = DA will also be locally stable, providing the system is feasible (i.e., all species have positive equilibria D > 0). This helps explain why, unusually, nearly all feasible systems studied here are locally stable. Large complex systems may thus be even more fragile than May predicted, given the difficulty of assembling a feasible system. It was also found that the degree of stability, or resilience of a system, depended on the minimum equilibrium population.

Direct evidence for EMIC wave scattering of relativistic electrons in space: EMIC-Driven Electron Losses in Space

DOE PAGES

Zhang, X. -J.; Li, W.; Ma, Q.; ...

2016-07-01

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves have been proposed to cause efficient losses of highly relativistic (>1 MeV) electrons via gyroresonant interactions. Simultaneous observations of EMIC waves and equatorial electron pitch angle distributions, which can be used to directly quantify the EMIC wave scattering effect, are still very limited, however. In the present study, we evaluate the effect of EMIC waves on pitch angle scattering of ultrarelativistic (>1 MeV) electrons during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, when intense EMIC wave activity was observed in situ (in the plasma plume region with high plasma density) on both Van Allen Probes.more » EMIC waves captured by Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) probes and on the ground across the Canadian Array for Real-time Investigations of Magnetic Activity (CARISMA) are also used to infer their magnetic local time (MLT) coverage. From the observed EMIC wave spectra and local plasma parameters, we compute wave diffusion rates and model the evolution of electron pitch angle distributions. In conclusion, by comparing model results with local observations of pitch angle distributions, we show direct, quantitative evidence of EMIC wave-driven relativistic electron losses in the Earth’s outer radiation belt.« less

Orientation of cosmic web filaments with respect to the underlying velocity field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tempel, E.; Libeskind, N. I.; Hoffman, Y.; Liivamägi, L. J.; Tamm, A.

2014-01-01

The large-scale structure of the Universe is characterized by a web-like structure made of voids, sheets, filaments and knots. The structure of this so-called cosmic web is dictated by the local velocity shear tensor. In particular, the local direction of a filament should be strongly aligned with hat{e}_3, the eigenvector associated with the smallest eigenvalue of the tensor. That conjecture is tested here on the basis of a cosmological simulation. The cosmic web delineated by the halo distribution is probed by a marked point process with interactions (the Bisous model), detecting filaments directly from the halo distribution (P-web). The detected P-web filaments are found to be strongly aligned with the local hat{e}_3: the alignment is within 30° for ˜80 per cent of the elements. This indicates that large-scale filaments defined purely from the distribution of haloes carry more than just morphological information, although the Bisous model does not make any prior assumption on the underlying shear tensor. The P-web filaments are also compared to the structure revealed from the velocity shear tensor itself (V-web). In the densest regions, the P- and V-web filaments overlap well (90 per cent), whereas in lower density regions, the P-web filaments preferentially mark sheets in the V-web.

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines.

PubMed

Tellería, José L; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

2016-01-01

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050-2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.

Secretarial Administration: Project In/Vest: Insurance Simulation Insures Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geier, Charlene

1978-01-01

Describes a simulated model office to replicate various insurance occupations set up in Greenfield High School, Wisconsin. Local insurance agents and students from other disciplines, such as distributive education, are involved in the simulation. The training is applicable to other business office positions, as it models not only an insurance…

Simulation of Electromigration Based on Resistor Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrinos, Anthony John

A two dimensional computer simulation of electromigration based on resistor networks was designed and implemented. The model utilizes a realistic grain structure generated by the Monte Carlo method and takes specific account of the local effects through which electromigration damage progresses. The dynamic evolution of the simulated thin film is governed by the local current and temperature distributions. The current distribution is calculated by superimposing a two dimensional electrical network on the lattice whose nodes correspond to the particles in the lattice and the branches to interparticle bonds. Current is assumed to flow from site to site via nearest neighbor bonds. The current distribution problem is solved by applying Kirchhoff's rules on the resulting electrical network. The calculation of the temperature distribution in the lattice proceeds by discretizing the partial differential equation for heat conduction, with appropriate material parameters chosen for the lattice and its defects. SEReNe (for Simulation of Electromigration using Resistor Networks) was tested by applying it to common situations arising in experiments with real films with satisfactory results. Specifically, the model successfully reproduces the expected grain size, line width and bamboo effects, the lognormal failure time distribution and the relationship between current density exponent and current density. It has also been modified to simulate temperature ramp experiments but with mixed, in this case, results.

Decentralized control experiments on NASA's flexible grid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ozguner, U.; Yurkowich, S.; Martin, J., III; Al-Abbass, F.

1986-01-01

Methods arising from the area of decentralized control are emerging for analysis and control synthesis for large flexible structures. In this paper the control strategy involves a decentralized model reference adaptive approach using a variable structure control. Local models are formulated based on desired damping and response time in a model-following scheme for various modal configurations. Variable structure controllers are then designed employing co-located angular rate and position feedback. In this scheme local control forces the system to move on a local sliding mode in some local error space. An important feature of this approach is that the local subsystem is made insensitive to dynamical interactions with other subsystems once the sliding surface is reached. Experiments based on the above have been performed for NASA's flexible grid experimental apparatus. The grid is designed to admit appreciable low-frequency structural dynamics, and allows for implementation of distributed computing components, inertial sensors, and actuation devices. A finite-element analysis of the grid provides the model for control system design and simulation; results of several simulations are reported on here, and a discussion of application experiments on the apparatus is presented.

Local Voltage Control in Distribution Networks: A Game-Theoretic Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Xinyang; Tian, Jie; Chen, Lijun

Inverter-based voltage regulation is gaining importance to alleviate emerging reliability and power-quality concerns related to distribution systems with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper seeks contribution in the domain of reactive power compensation by establishing stability of local Volt/VAr controllers. In lieu of the approximate linear surrogate used in the existing work, the paper establishes existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium point using nonlinear AC power flow model. Key to this end is to consider a nonlinear dynamical system with non-incremental local Volt/VAr control, cast the Volt/VAr dynamics as a game, and leverage the fixed-point theorem as wellmore » as pertinent contraction mapping argument. Numerical examples are provided to complement the analytical results.« less

Local Voltage Control in Distribution Networks: A Game-Theoretic Perspective: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Xinyang; Tian, Jie; Chen, Lijun

Inverter-based voltage regulation is gaining importance to alleviate emerging reliability and power-quality concerns related to distribution systems with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper seeks contribution in the domain of reactive power compensation by establishing stability of local Volt/VAr controllers. In lieu of the approximate linear surrogate used in the existing work, the paper establishes existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium point using nonlinear AC power flow model. Key to this end is to consider a nonlinear dynamical system with non-incremental local Volt/VAr control, cast the Volt/VAr dynamics as a game, and leverage the fixed-point theorem as wellmore » as pertinent contraction mapping argument. Numerical examples are provided to complement the analytical results.« less

How sensitive are temperate tadpoles to climate change? The use of thermal physiology and niche model tools to assess vulnerability.

PubMed

Perotti, María Gabriela; Bonino, Marcelo Fabián; Ferraro, Daiana; Cruz, Félix Benjamín

2018-04-01

Ectotherms are vulnerable to climate change, given their dependence on temperature, and amphibians are particularly interesting because of their complex life cycle. Tadpoles may regulate their body temperature by using suitable thermal microhabitats. Thus, their physiological responses are the result of adjustment to the local thermal limits experienced in their ponds. We studied three anuran tadpole species present in Argentina and Chile: Pleurodema thaul and Pleurodema bufoninum that are seasonal and have broad geographic ranges, and Batrachyla taeniata, a geographically restricted species with overwintering tadpoles. Species with restricted distribution are more susceptible to climate change than species with broader distribution that may cope with potential climatic changes in the environments in which they occur. We aim to test whether these species can buffer the potential effects of climate warming. We used ecological niche models and the outcomes of their thermal attributes (critical thermal limits, optimal temperature, and locomotor performance breadth) as empirical evidence of their capacity. We found that Pleurodema species show broader performance curves, related to their occurrence, while the geographically restricted B. taeniata shows a narrower thermal breadth, but is faster in warmer conditions. The modeled distributions and empirical physiological results suggest no severe threats for these three anurans. However, the risk level is increasing and a retraction of their distribution range might be possible for Pleurodema species, and some local population extinctions may happen, particularly for the narrowly distributed B. taeniata. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Open solutions to distributed control in ground tracking stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heuser, William Randy

1994-01-01

The advent of high speed local area networks has made it possible to interconnect small, powerful computers to function together as a single large computer. Today, distributed computer systems are the new paradigm for large scale computing systems. However, the communications provided by the local area network is only one part of the solution. The services and protocols used by the application programs to communicate across the network are as indispensable as the local area network. And the selection of services and protocols that do not match the system requirements will limit the capabilities, performance, and expansion of the system. Proprietary solutions are available but are usually limited to a select set of equipment. However, there are two solutions based on 'open' standards. The question that must be answered is 'which one is the best one for my job?' This paper examines a model for tracking stations and their requirements for interprocessor communications in the next century. The model and requirements are matched with the model and services provided by the five different software architectures and supporting protocol solutions. Several key services are examined in detail to determine which services and protocols most closely match the requirements for the tracking station environment. The study reveals that the protocols are tailored to the problem domains for which they were originally designed. Further, the study reveals that the process control model is the closest match to the tracking station model.

An Integrated Framework for Model-Based Distributed Diagnosis and Prognosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bregon, Anibal; Daigle, Matthew J.; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2012-01-01

Diagnosis and prognosis are necessary tasks for system reconfiguration and fault-adaptive control in complex systems. Diagnosis consists of detection, isolation and identification of faults, while prognosis consists of prediction of the remaining useful life of systems. This paper presents a novel integrated framework for model-based distributed diagnosis and prognosis, where system decomposition is used to enable the diagnosis and prognosis tasks to be performed in a distributed way. We show how different submodels can be automatically constructed to solve the local diagnosis and prognosis problems. We illustrate our approach using a simulated four-wheeled rover for different fault scenarios. Our experiments show that our approach correctly performs distributed fault diagnosis and prognosis in an efficient and robust manner.

Electron-beam-induced potentials in semiconductors: calculation and measurement with an SEM/SPM hybrid system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Ch; Joachimsthaler, I.; Heiderhoff, R.; Balk, L. J.

2004-10-01

In this work electron-beam-induced potentials are analysed theoretically and experimentally for semiconductors. A theoretical model is developed to describe the surface potential distribution produced by an electron beam. The distribution of generated carriers is calculated using semiconductor equations. This distribution causes a local change in surface potential, which is derived with the help of quasi-Fermi energies. The potential distribution is simulated using the model developed and measured with a scanning probe microscope (SPM) built inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM), for different samples, for different beam excitations and for different cantilever voltages of SPM. In the end, some fields of application are shown where material properties can be determined using an SEM/SPM hybrid system.

The architecture of a distributed medical dictionary.

PubMed

Fowler, J; Buffone, G; Moreau, D

1995-01-01

Exploiting high-speed computer networks to provide a national medical information infrastructure is a goal for medical informatics. The Distributed Medical Dictionary under development at Baylor College of Medicine is a model for an architecture that supports collaborative development of a distributed online medical terminology knowledge-base. A prototype is described that illustrates the concept. Issues that must be addressed by such a system include high availability, acceptable response time, support for local idiom, and control of vocabulary.

Decreased intracellular [Ca2+ ] coincides with reduced expression of Dhprα1s, RyR1, and diaphragmatic dysfunction in a rat model of sepsis.

PubMed

Wang, Meng-Meng; Hao, Li-Ying; Guo, Feng; Zhong, Bin; Zhong, Xiao-Mei; Yuan, Jing; Hao, Yi-Fei; Zhao, Shuang; Sun, Xue-Fei; Lei, Ming; Jiao, Guang-Yu

2017-12-01

Sepsis can cause decreased diaphragmatic contractility. Intracellular calcium as a second messenger is central to diaphragmatic contractility. However, changes in intracellular calcium concentration ([Ca 2+ ]) and the distribution and co-localization of relevant calcium channels [dihydropyridine receptors, (DHPRα1s) and ryanodine receptors (RyR1)] remain unclear during sepsis. In this study we investigated the effect of changed intracellular [Ca 2+ ] and expression and distribution of DHPRα1s and RyR1 on diaphragm function during sepsis. We measured diaphragm contractility and isolated diaphragm muscle cells in a rat model of sepsis. The distribution and co-localization of DHPRα1s and RyR1 were determined using immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence, whereas intracellular [Ca 2+ ] was measured by confocal microscopy and fluorescence spectrophotometry. Septic rat diaphragm contractility, expression of DHPRα1s and RyR1, and intracellular [Ca 2+ ] were significantly decreased in the rat sepsis model compared with controls. Decreased intracellular [Ca 2+ ] coincides with diaphragmatic contractility and decreased expression of DHPRα1s and RyR1 in sepsis. Muscle Nerve 56: 1128-1136, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

PubMed

Lagerholm, Vendela K; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Vaniscotte, Amélie; Potapova, Olga R; Tomek, Teresa; Bochenski, Zbigniew M; Shepherd, Paul; Barton, Nick; Van Dyck, Marie-Claire; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, Jacob; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Dalén, Love; Stewart, John R

2017-04-01

Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A multi-tiered time-series modelling approach to forecasting respiratory syncytial virus incidence at the local level.

PubMed

Spaeder, M C; Fackler, J C

2012-04-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of documented viral respiratory infections, and the leading cause of hospitalization, in young children. We performed a retrospective time-series analysis of all patients aged <18 years with laboratory-confirmed RSV within a network of multiple affiliated academic medical institutions. Forecasting models of weekly RSV incidence for the local community, inpatient paediatric hospital and paediatric intensive-care unit (PICU) were created. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals calculated around our models' 2-week forecasts were accurate to ±9·3, ±7·5 and ±1·5 cases/week for the local community, inpatient hospital and PICU, respectively. Our results suggest that time-series models may be useful tools in forecasting the burden of RSV infection at the local and institutional levels, helping communities and institutions to optimize distribution of resources based on the changing burden and severity of illness in their respective communities.

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

PubMed

Boakes, Elizabeth H; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Fuller, Richard A; Mace, Georgina M; McGowan, Philip J K

2018-02-01

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Random bursts determine dynamics of active filaments.

PubMed

Weber, Christoph A; Suzuki, Ryo; Schaller, Volker; Aranson, Igor S; Bausch, Andreas R; Frey, Erwin

2015-08-25

Constituents of living or synthetic active matter have access to a local energy supply that serves to keep the system out of thermal equilibrium. The statistical properties of such fluctuating active systems differ from those of their equilibrium counterparts. Using the actin filament gliding assay as a model, we studied how nonthermal distributions emerge in active matter. We found that the basic mechanism involves the interplay between local and random injection of energy, acting as an analog of a thermal heat bath, and nonequilibrium energy dissipation processes associated with sudden jump-like changes in the system's dynamic variables. We show here how such a mechanism leads to a nonthermal distribution of filament curvatures with a non-Gaussian shape. The experimental curvature statistics and filament relaxation dynamics are reproduced quantitatively by stochastic computer simulations and a simple kinetic model.

Communication: On the origin of the non-Arrhenius behavior in water reorientation dynamics.

PubMed

Stirnemann, Guillaume; Laage, Damien

2012-07-21

We combine molecular dynamics simulations and analytic modeling to determine the origin of the non-Arrhenius temperature dependence of liquid water's reorientation and hydrogen-bond dynamics between 235 K and 350 K. We present a quantitative model connecting hydrogen-bond exchange dynamics to local structural fluctuations, measured by the asphericity of Voronoi cells associated with each water molecule. For a fixed local structure the regular Arrhenius behavior is recovered, and the global anomalous temperature dependence is demonstrated to essentially result from a continuous shift in the unimodal structure distribution upon cooling. The non-Arrhenius behavior can thus be explained without invoking an equilibrium between distinct structures. In addition, the large width of the homogeneous structural distribution is shown to cause a growing dynamical heterogeneity and a non-exponential relaxation at low temperature.

Random bursts determine dynamics of active filaments

PubMed Central

Weber, Christoph A.; Suzuki, Ryo; Schaller, Volker; Aranson, Igor S.; Bausch, Andreas R.; Frey, Erwin

2015-01-01

Constituents of living or synthetic active matter have access to a local energy supply that serves to keep the system out of thermal equilibrium. The statistical properties of such fluctuating active systems differ from those of their equilibrium counterparts. Using the actin filament gliding assay as a model, we studied how nonthermal distributions emerge in active matter. We found that the basic mechanism involves the interplay between local and random injection of energy, acting as an analog of a thermal heat bath, and nonequilibrium energy dissipation processes associated with sudden jump-like changes in the system’s dynamic variables. We show here how such a mechanism leads to a nonthermal distribution of filament curvatures with a non-Gaussian shape. The experimental curvature statistics and filament relaxation dynamics are reproduced quantitatively by stochastic computer simulations and a simple kinetic model. PMID:26261319

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Gilbert, Andrew T.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Silverman, Emily D.

2010-01-01

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics.

PubMed

Zipkin, Elise F; Gardner, Beth; Gilbert, Andrew T; O'Connell, Allan F; Royle, J Andrew; Silverman, Emily D

2010-08-01

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.

Development of a thermal and structural model for a NASTRAN finite-element analysis of a hypersonic wing test structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lameris, J.

1984-01-01

The development of a thermal and structural model for a hypersonic wing test structure using the NASTRAN finite-element method as its primary analytical tool is described. A detailed analysis was defined to obtain the temperature and thermal stress distribution in the whole wing as well as the five upper and lower root panels. During the development of the models, it was found that the thermal application of NASTRAN and the VIEW program, used for the generation of the radiation exchange coefficients, were definicent. Although for most of these deficiencies solutions could be found, the existence of one particular deficiency in the current thermal model prevented the final computation of the temperature distributions. A SPAR analysis of a single bay of the wing, using data converted from the original NASTRAN model, indicates that local temperature-time distributions can be obtained with good agreement with the test data. The conversion of the NASTRAN thermal model into a SPAR model is recommended to meet the immediate goal of obtaining an accurate thermal stress distribution.

Web-based segmentation and display of three-dimensional radiologic image data.

PubMed

Silverstein, J; Rubenstein, J; Millman, A; Panko, W

1998-01-01

In many clinical circumstances, viewing sequential radiological image data as three-dimensional models is proving beneficial. However, designing customized computer-generated radiological models is beyond the scope of most physicians, due to specialized hardware and software requirements. We have created a simple method for Internet users to remotely construct and locally display three-dimensional radiological models using only a standard web browser. Rapid model construction is achieved by distributing the hardware intensive steps to a remote server. Once created, the model is automatically displayed on the requesting browser and is accessible to multiple geographically distributed users. Implementation of our server software on large scale systems could be of great service to the worldwide medical community.

The joint fit of the BHMF and ERDF for the BAT AGN Sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, Anna K.; Koss, Michael; Ricci, Claudio; Trakhtenbrot, Benny; Oh, Kyuseok; Schawinski, Kevin; Lamperti, Isabella

2018-01-01

A natural product of an AGN survey is the AGN luminosity function. This statistical measure describes the distribution of directly measurable AGN luminosities. Intrinsically, the shape of the luminosity function depends on the distribution of black hole masses and Eddington ratios. To constrain these fundamental AGN properties, the luminosity function thus has to be disentangled into the black hole mass and Eddington ratio distribution function. The BASS survey is unique as it allows such a joint fit for a large number of local AGN, is unbiased in terms of obscuration in the X-rays and provides black hole masses for type-1 and type-2 AGN. The black hole mass function at z ~ 0 represents an essential baseline for simulations and black hole growth models. The normalization of the Eddington ratio distribution function directly constrains the AGN fraction. Together, the BASS AGN luminosity, black hole mass and Eddington ratio distribution functions thus provide a complete picture of the local black hole population.

Observational constraint on spherical inhomogeneity with CMB and local Hubble parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokutake, Masato; Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Yoo, Chul-Moon

2018-03-01

We derive an observational constraint on a spherical inhomogeneity of the void centered at our position from the angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and local measurements of the Hubble parameter. The late time behaviour of the void is assumed to be well described by the so-called Λ-Lemaȋtre-Tolman-Bondi (ΛLTB) solution. Then, we restrict the models to the asymptotically homogeneous models each of which is approximated by a flat Friedmann-Lemaȋtre-Robertson-Walker model. The late time ΛLTB models are parametrized by four parameters including the value of the cosmological constant and the local Hubble parameter. The other two parameters are used to parametrize the observed distance-redshift relation. Then, the ΛLTB models are constructed so that they are compatible with the given distance-redshift relation. Including conventional parameters for the CMB analysis, we characterize our models by seven parameters in total. The local Hubble measurements are reflected in the prior distribution of the local Hubble parameter. As a result of a Markov-Chains-Monte-Carlo analysis for the CMB temperature and polarization anisotropies, we found that the inhomogeneous universe models with vanishing cosmological constant are ruled out as is expected. However, a significant under-density around us is still compatible with the angular power spectrum of CMB and the local Hubble parameter.

A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2012-01-01

Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

Magnetic intermittency of solar wind turbulence in the dissipation range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Zhongtian; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Marsch, Eckart; Wang, Linghua

2016-04-01

The feature, nature, and fate of intermittency in the dissipation range are an interesting topic in the solar wind turbulence. We calculate the distribution of flatness for the magnetic field fluctuations as a functionof angle and scale. The flatness distribution shows a "butterfly" pattern, with two wings located at angles parallel/anti-parallel to local mean magnetic field direction and main body located at angles perpendicular to local B0. This "butterfly" pattern illustrates that the flatness profile in (anti-) parallel direction approaches to the maximum value at larger scale and drops faster than that in perpendicular direction. The contours for probability distribution functions at different scales illustrate a "vase" pattern, more clear in parallel direction, which confirms the scale-variation of flatness and indicates the intermittency generation and dissipation. The angular distribution of structure function in the dissipation range shows an anisotropic pattern. The quasi-mono-fractal scaling of structure function in the dissipation range is also illustrated and investigated with the mathematical model for inhomogeneous cascading (extended p-model). Different from the inertial range, the extended p-model for the dissipation range results in approximate uniform fragmentation measure. However, more complete mathematicaland physical model involving both non-uniform cascading and dissipation is needed. The nature of intermittency may be strong structures or large amplitude fluctuations, which may be tested with magnetic helicity. In one case study, we find the heating effect in terms of entropy for large amplitude fluctuations seems to be more obvious than strong structures.

Nonlinear Spatial Inversion Without Monte Carlo Sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, A.; Nawaz, A.

2017-12-01

High-dimensional, nonlinear inverse or inference problems usually have non-unique solutions. The distribution of solutions are described by probability distributions, and these are usually found using Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods. These take pseudo-random samples of models in parameter space, calculate the probability of each sample given available data and other information, and thus map out high or low probability values of model parameters. However, such methods would converge to the solution only as the number of samples tends to infinity; in practice, MC is found to be slow to converge, convergence is not guaranteed to be achieved in finite time, and detection of convergence requires the use of subjective criteria. We propose a method for Bayesian inversion of categorical variables such as geological facies or rock types in spatial problems, which requires no sampling at all. The method uses a 2-D Hidden Markov Model over a grid of cells, where observations represent localized data constraining the model in each cell. The data in our example application are seismic properties such as P- and S-wave impedances or rock density; our model parameters are the hidden states and represent the geological rock types in each cell. The observations at each location are assumed to depend on the facies at that location only - an assumption referred to as `localized likelihoods'. However, the facies at a location cannot be determined solely by the observation at that location as it also depends on prior information concerning its correlation with the spatial distribution of facies elsewhere. Such prior information is included in the inversion in the form of a training image which represents a conceptual depiction of the distribution of local geologies that might be expected, but other forms of prior information can be used in the method as desired. The method provides direct (pseudo-analytic) estimates of posterior marginal probability distributions over each variable, so these do not need to be estimated from samples as is required in MC methods. On a 2-D test example the method is shown to outperform previous methods significantly, and at a fraction of the computational cost. In many foreseeable applications there are therefore no serious impediments to extending the method to 3-D spatial models.

Modelling of gas-metal arc welding taking into account metal vapour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnick, M.; Fuessel, U.; Hertel, M.; Haessler, M.; Spille-Kohoff, A.; Murphy, A. B.

2010-11-01

The most advanced numerical models of gas-metal arc welding (GMAW) neglect vaporization of metal, and assume an argon atmosphere for the arc region, as is also common practice for models of gas-tungsten arc welding (GTAW). These models predict temperatures above 20 000 K and a temperature distribution similar to GTAW arcs. However, spectroscopic temperature measurements in GMAW arcs demonstrate much lower arc temperatures. In contrast to measurements of GTAW arcs, they have shown the presence of a central local minimum of the radial temperature distribution. This paper presents a GMAW model that takes into account metal vapour and that is able to predict the local central minimum in the radial distributions of temperature and electric current density. The influence of different values for the net radiative emission coefficient of iron vapour, which vary by up to a factor of hundred, is examined. It is shown that these net emission coefficients cause differences in the magnitudes, but not in the overall trends, of the radial distribution of temperature and current density. Further, the influence of the metal vaporization rate is investigated. We present evidence that, for higher vaporization rates, the central flow velocity inside the arc is decreased and can even change direction so that it is directed from the workpiece towards the wire, although the outer plasma flow is still directed towards the workpiece. In support of this thesis, we have attempted to reproduce the measurements of Zielińska et al for spray-transfer mode GMAW numerically, and have obtained reasonable agreement.

Reconstructing the Mexican Tropical Dry Forests via an Autoecological Niche Approach: Reconsidering the Ecosystem Boundaries

PubMed Central

Prieto-Torres, David A.; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R.

2016-01-01

We used Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) of individual species of two taxonomic groups (plants and birds) in order to reconstruct the climatic distribution of Tropical Dry Forests (TDFs) in Mexico and to analyze their boundaries with other terrestrial ecosystems. The reconstruction for TDFs’ distribution was analyzed considering the prediction and omission errors based upon the combination of species, obtained from the overlap of individual models (only plants, only birds, and all species combined). Two verifications were used: a primary vegetation map and 100 independent TDFs localities. We performed a Principal Component (PCA) and Discriminant Analysis (DA) to evaluate the variation in the environmental variables and ecological overlap among ecosystems. The modeling strategies showed differences in the ecological patterns and prediction areas, where the “all species combined” model (with a threshold of ≥10 species) was the best strategy to use in the TDFs reconstruction. We observed a concordance of 78% with the primary vegetation map and a prediction of 98% of independent locality records. Although PCA and DA tests explained 75.78% and 97.9% of variance observed, respectively, we observed an important overlap among the TDFs with other adjacent ecosystems, confirming the existence of transition zones among them. We successfully modeled the distribution of Mexican TDFs using a number of bioclimatic variables and co-distributed species. This autoecological niche approach suggests the necessity of rethinking the delimitations of ecosystems based on the recognition of transition zones among them in order to understand the real nature of communities and association patterns of species. PMID:26968031

Predators modify biogeographic constraints on species distributions in an insect metacommunity.

PubMed

Grainger, Tess Nahanni; Germain, Rachel M; Jones, Natalie T; Gilbert, Benjamin

2017-03-01

Theory describing the positive effects of patch size and connectivity on diversity in fragmented systems has stimulated a large body of empirical work, yet predicting when and how local species interactions mediate these responses remains challenging. We used insects that specialize on milkweed plants as a model metacommunity to investigate how local predation alters the effects of biogeographic constraints on species distributions. Species-specific dispersal ability and susceptibility to predation were used to predict when patch size and connectivity should shape species distributions, and when these should be modified by local predator densities. We surveyed specialist herbivores and their predators in milkweed patches in two matrix types, a forest and an old field. Predator-resistant species showed the predicted direct positive effects of patch size and connectivity on occupancy rates. For predator-susceptible species, predators consistently altered the impact of biogeographic constraints, rather than acting independently. Finally, differences between matrix types in species' responses and overall occupancy rates indicate a potential role of the inter-patch environment in mediating the joint effects of predators and spatial drivers. Together, these results highlight the importance of local top-down pressure in mediating classic biogeographic relationships, and demonstrate how species-specific responses to local and regional constraints can be used to predict these effects. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

*Combining regional - and local-scale air quality models with exposure models for use in environmental health studies - Title changed from Linking air quality and exposure models for use in environmental health studies

EPA Science Inventory

Population-based human exposure models predict the distribution of personal exposures to pollutants of outdoor origin using a variety of inputs, including air pollution concentrations; human activity patterns, such as the amount of time spent outdoors versus indoors, commuting, w...

Geographic variability in elevation and topographic constraints on the distribution of native and nonnative trout in the Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warren, Dana R.; Dunham, Jason B.; Hockman-Wert, David

2014-01-01

Understanding local and geographic factors influencing species distributions is a prerequisite for conservation planning. Our objective in this study was to model local and geographic variability in elevations occupied by native and nonnative trout in the northwestern Great Basin, USA. To this end, we analyzed a large existing data set of trout presence (5,156 observations) to evaluate two fundamental factors influencing occupied elevations: climate-related gradients in geography and local constraints imposed by topography. We applied quantile regression to model upstream and downstream distribution elevation limits for each trout species commonly found in the region (two native and two nonnative species). With these models in hand, we simulated an upstream shift in elevation limits of trout distributions to evaluate potential consequences of habitat loss. Downstream elevation limits were inversely associated with latitude, reflecting regional gradients in temperature. Upstream limits were positively related to maximum stream elevation as expected. Downstream elevation limits were constrained topographically by valley bottom elevations in northern streams but not in southern streams, where limits began well above valley bottoms. Elevation limits were similar among species. Upstream shifts in elevation limits for trout would lead to more habitat loss in the north than in the south, a result attributable to differences in topography. Because downstream distributions of trout in the north extend into valley bottoms with reduced topographic relief, trout in more northerly latitudes are more likely to experience habitat loss associated with an upstream shift in lower elevation limits. By applying quantile regression to relatively simple information (species presence, elevation, geography, topography), we were able to identify elevation limits for trout in the Great Basin and explore the effects of potential shifts in these limits that could occur in response to changing climate conditions that alter streams directly (e.g., through changes in temperature and precipitation) or indirectly (e.g., through changing water use).

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

PubMed

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting presence and absence of trout (Salmo trutta) in Iran

PubMed Central

Mostafavi, Hossein; Pletterbauer, Florian; Coad, Brian W.; Mahini, Abdolrassoul Salman; Schinegger, Rafaela; Unfer, Günther; Trautwein, Clemens; Schmutz, Stefan

2014-01-01

Species distribution modelling, as a central issue in freshwater ecology, is an important tool for conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems. The brown trout (Salmo trutta) is a sensitive species which reacts to habitat changes induced by human impacts. Therefore, the identification of suitable habitats is essential. This study explores the potential distribution of brown trout by a species distribution modelling approach for Iran. Furthermore, modelling results are compared to the distribution described in the literature. Areas outside the currently known distribution which may offer potential habitats for brown trout are identified. The species distribution modelling was based on five different modelling techniques: Generalised Linear Model, Generalised Additive Model, Generalised Boosting Model, Classification Tree Analysis and Random Forests, which are finally summarised in an ensemble forecasting approach. We considered four environmental descriptors at the local scale (slope, bankfull width, wetted width, and elevation) and three climatic parameters (mean air temperature, range of air temperature and annual precipitation) which were extracted on three different spatial extents (1/5/10 km). The performance of all models was excellent (≥0.8) according to the TSS (True Skill Statistic) criterion. Slope, mean and range of air temperature were the most important variables in predicting brown trout occurrence. Presented results deepen the knowledge about distribution patterns of brown trout in Iran. Moreover, this study gives a basic background for the future development of assessment methods for riverine ecosystems in Iran. PMID:24707064

Recent Developments in Gravity Wave Effects in Climate Models, and the Global Distribution of Gravity Wave Momentum Flux from Observations and Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

super-pressure balloon observations. Intermit - tency in this work was quantified via 1 = (1 + σ2/µ2)−1 where µ is the mean momentum flux in each...can be very local- ized in both space and time, a concept termed intermit - tency. Because of intermittency, local values can be more than an order of... Fast Fourier synoptic mapping. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 2601-2614. Sato, K. 1993: Small-scale wind disturbances observed by the MU radar during the passage

Shear viscosity coefficient of liquid lanthanides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patel, H. P., E-mail: patel.harshal2@gmail.com; Thakor, P. B., E-mail: pbthakore@rediffmail.com; Prajapati, A. V., E-mail: anand0prajapati@gmail.com

2015-05-15

Present paper deals with the computation of shear viscosity coefficient (η) of liquid lanthanides. The effective pair potential v(r) is calculated through our newly constructed model potential. The Pair distribution function g(r) is calculated from PYHS reference system. To see the influence of local field correction function, Hartree (H), Tailor (T) and Sarkar et al (S) local field correction function are used. Present results are compared with available experimental as well as theoretical data. Lastly, we found that our newly constructed model potential successfully explains the shear viscosity coefficient (η) of liquid lanthanides.

Shear viscosity coefficient of liquid lanthanides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, H. P.; Sonvane, Y. A.; Thakor, P. B.; Prajapati, A. V.

2015-05-01

Present paper deals with the computation of shear viscosity coefficient (η) of liquid lanthanides. The effective pair potential v(r) is calculated through our newly constructed model potential. The Pair distribution function g(r) is calculated from PYHS reference system. To see the influence of local field correction function, Hartree (H), Tailor (T) and Sarkar et al (S) local field correction function are used. Present results are compared with available experimental as well as theoretical data. Lastly, we found that our newly constructed model potential successfully explains the shear viscosity coefficient (η) of liquid lanthanides.

Determination of errors in derived magnetic field directions in geosynchronous orbit: results from a statistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yue; Cunningham, Gregory; Henderson, Michael

2016-09-01

This study aims to statistically estimate the errors in local magnetic field directions that are derived from electron directional distributions measured by Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous (LANL GEO) satellites. First, by comparing derived and measured magnetic field directions along the GEO orbit to those calculated from three selected empirical global magnetic field models (including a static Olson and Pfitzer 1977 quiet magnetic field model, a simple dynamic Tsyganenko 1989 model, and a sophisticated dynamic Tsyganenko 2001 storm model), it is shown that the errors in both derived and modeled directions are at least comparable. Second, using a newly developed proxy method as well as comparing results from empirical models, we are able to provide for the first time circumstantial evidence showing that derived magnetic field directions should statistically match the real magnetic directions better, with averaged errors < ˜ 2°, than those from the three empirical models with averaged errors > ˜ 5°. In addition, our results suggest that the errors in derived magnetic field directions do not depend much on magnetospheric activity, in contrast to the empirical field models. Finally, as applications of the above conclusions, we show examples of electron pitch angle distributions observed by LANL GEO and also take the derived magnetic field directions as the real ones so as to test the performance of empirical field models along the GEO orbits, with results suggesting dependence on solar cycles as well as satellite locations. This study demonstrates the validity and value of the method that infers local magnetic field directions from particle spin-resolved distributions.

Determination of errors in derived magnetic field directions in geosynchronous orbit: results from a statistical approach

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yue; Cunningham, Gregory; Henderson, Michael

2016-09-21

Our study aims to statistically estimate the errors in local magnetic field directions that are derived from electron directional distributions measured by Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous (LANL GEO) satellites. First, by comparing derived and measured magnetic field directions along the GEO orbit to those calculated from three selected empirical global magnetic field models (including a static Olson and Pfitzer 1977 quiet magnetic field model, a simple dynamic Tsyganenko 1989 model, and a sophisticated dynamic Tsyganenko 2001 storm model), it is shown that the errors in both derived and modeled directions are at least comparable. Furthermore, using a newly developedmore » proxy method as well as comparing results from empirical models, we are able to provide for the first time circumstantial evidence showing that derived magnetic field directions should statistically match the real magnetic directions better, with averaged errors < ~2°, than those from the three empirical models with averaged errors > ~5°. In addition, our results suggest that the errors in derived magnetic field directions do not depend much on magnetospheric activity, in contrast to the empirical field models. Finally, as applications of the above conclusions, we show examples of electron pitch angle distributions observed by LANL GEO and also take the derived magnetic field directions as the real ones so as to test the performance of empirical field models along the GEO orbits, with results suggesting dependence on solar cycles as well as satellite locations. Finally, this study demonstrates the validity and value of the method that infers local magnetic field directions from particle spin-resolved distributions.« less

Determination of errors in derived magnetic field directions in geosynchronous orbit: results from a statistical approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yue; Cunningham, Gregory; Henderson, Michael

Our study aims to statistically estimate the errors in local magnetic field directions that are derived from electron directional distributions measured by Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous (LANL GEO) satellites. First, by comparing derived and measured magnetic field directions along the GEO orbit to those calculated from three selected empirical global magnetic field models (including a static Olson and Pfitzer 1977 quiet magnetic field model, a simple dynamic Tsyganenko 1989 model, and a sophisticated dynamic Tsyganenko 2001 storm model), it is shown that the errors in both derived and modeled directions are at least comparable. Furthermore, using a newly developedmore » proxy method as well as comparing results from empirical models, we are able to provide for the first time circumstantial evidence showing that derived magnetic field directions should statistically match the real magnetic directions better, with averaged errors < ~2°, than those from the three empirical models with averaged errors > ~5°. In addition, our results suggest that the errors in derived magnetic field directions do not depend much on magnetospheric activity, in contrast to the empirical field models. Finally, as applications of the above conclusions, we show examples of electron pitch angle distributions observed by LANL GEO and also take the derived magnetic field directions as the real ones so as to test the performance of empirical field models along the GEO orbits, with results suggesting dependence on solar cycles as well as satellite locations. Finally, this study demonstrates the validity and value of the method that infers local magnetic field directions from particle spin-resolved distributions.« less

A novel modeling approach to the mixing process in twin-screw extruders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Amedu Osaighe; Penlington, Roger; Busawon, Krishna; Morgan, Andy

2014-05-01

In this paper, a theoretical model for the mixing process in a self-wiping co-rotating twin screw extruder by combination of statistical techniques and mechanistic modelling has been proposed. The approach was to examine the mixing process in the local zones via residence time distribution and the flow dynamics, from which predictive models of the mean residence time and mean time delay were determined. Increase in feed rate at constant screw speed was found to narrow the shape of the residence time distribution curve, reduction in the mean residence time and time delay and increase in the degree of fill. Increase in screw speed at constant feed rate was found to narrow the shape of the residence time distribution curve, decrease in the degree of fill in the extruder and thus an increase in the time delay. Experimental investigation was also done to validate the modeling approach.

Modelling the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions in the UK.

PubMed

Hellsten, S; Dragosits, U; Place, C J; Vieno, M; Dore, A J; Misselbrook, T H; Tang, Y S; Sutton, M A

2008-08-01

Ammonia emissions (NH3) are characterised by a high spatial variability at a local scale. When modelling the spatial distribution of NH3 emissions, it is important to provide robust emission estimates, since the model output is used to assess potential environmental impacts, e.g. exceedance of critical loads. The aim of this study was to provide a new, updated spatial NH3 emission inventory for the UK for the year 2000, based on an improved modelling approach and the use of updated input datasets. The AENEID model distributes NH3 emissions from a range of agricultural activities, such as grazing and housing of livestock, storage and spreading of manures, and fertilizer application, at a 1-km grid resolution over the most suitable landcover types. The results of the emission calculation for the year 2000 are analysed and the methodology is compared with a previous spatial emission inventory for 1996.

Neutron Capture Energies for Flux Normalization and Approximate Model for Gamma-Smeared Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Kang Seog; Clarno, Kevin T.; Liu, Yuxuan

The Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) neutronics simulator MPACT has used a single recoverable fission energy for each fissionable nuclide assuming that all recoverable energies come only from fission reaction, for which capture energy is merged with fission energy. This approach includes approximations and requires improvement by separating capture energy from the merged effective recoverable energy. This report documents the procedure to generate recoverable neutron capture energies and the development of a program called CapKappa to generate capture energies. Recoverable neutron capture energies have been generated by using CapKappa withmore » the evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B-7.0 and 7.1 cross section and decay libraries. The new capture kappas were compared to the current SCALE-6.2 and the CASMO-5 capture kappas. These new capture kappas have been incorporated into the Simplified AMPX 51- and 252-group libraries, and they can be used for the AMPX multigroup (MG) libraries and the SCALE code package. The CASL VERA neutronics simulator MPACT does not include a gamma transport capability, which limits it to explicitly estimating local energy deposition from fission, neutron, and gamma slowing down and capture. Since the mean free path of gamma rays is typically much longer than that for the neutron, and the total gamma energy is about 10% to the total energy, the gamma-smeared power distribution is different from the fission power distribution. Explicit local energy deposition through neutron and gamma transport calculation is significantly important in multi-physics whole core simulation with thermal-hydraulic feedback. Therefore, the gamma transport capability should be incorporated into the CASL neutronics simulator MPACT. However, this task will be timeconsuming in developing the neutron induced gamma production and gamma cross section libraries. This study is to investigate an approximate model to estimate gammasmeared power distribution without performing any gamma transport calculation. A simple approximate gamma smearing model has been investigated based on the facts that pinwise gamma energy depositions are almost flat over a fuel assembly, and assembly-wise gamma energy deposition is proportional to kappa-fission energy deposition. The approximate gamma smearing model works well for single assembly cases, and can partly improve the gamma smeared power distribution for the whole core model. Although the power distributions can be improved by the approximate gamma smearing model, still there is an issue to explicitly obtain local energy deposition. A new simple approach or gamma transport/diffusion capability may need to be incorporated into MPACT to estimate local energy deposition for more robust multi-physics simulation.« less

Network algorithmics and the emergence of the cortical synaptic-weight distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nathan, Andre; Barbosa, Valmir C.

2010-02-01

When a neuron fires and the resulting action potential travels down its axon toward other neurons’ dendrites, the effect on each of those neurons is mediated by the strength of the synapse that separates it from the firing neuron. This strength, in turn, is affected by the postsynaptic neuron’s response through a mechanism that is thought to underlie important processes such as learning and memory. Although of difficult quantification, cortical synaptic strengths have been found to obey a long-tailed unimodal distribution peaking near the lowest values (approximately lognormal), thus confirming some of the predictive models built previously. Most of these models are causally local, in the sense that they refer to the situation in which a number of neurons all fire directly at the same postsynaptic neuron. Consequently, they necessarily embody assumptions regarding the generation of action potentials by the presynaptic neurons that have little biological interpretability. We introduce a network model of large groups of interconnected neurons and demonstrate, making none of the assumptions that characterize the causally local models, that its long-term behavior gives rise to a distribution of synaptic weights (the mathematical surrogates of synaptic strengths) with the same properties that were experimentally observed. In our model, the action potentials that create a neuron’s input are, ultimately, the product of network-wide causal chains relating what happens at a neuron to the firings of others. Our model is then of a causally global nature and predicates the emergence of the synaptic-weight distribution on network structure and function. As such, it has the potential to become instrumental also in the study of other emergent cortical phenomena.

Evaluation of a locally homogeneous model of spray evaporation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shearer, A. J.; Faeth, G. M.

1979-01-01

A model of spray evaporation which employs a second-order turbulence model in conjunction with the locally homogeneous flow approximation, which implies infinitely fast interphase transport rates is presented. Measurements to test the model were completed for single phase constant and variable density jets, as well as an evaporating spray in stagnant air. Profiles of mean velocity, composition, temperature and drop size distribution as well as velocity fluctuations and Reynolds stress, were measured within the spray. Predictions were in agreement with measurements in single phase flows and also with many characteristics of the spray, e.g. flow width, radial profiles of mean and turbulent quantities, and the axial rate of decay of mean velocity and mixture fraction.

Magnetopause modeling - Flux transfer events and magnetosheath quasi-trapped distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speiser, T. W.; Williams, D. J.

1982-01-01

Three-dimensional distribution functions for energetic ions are studied numerically in the magnetosphere, through the magnetopause, and in the magnetosheath using a simple one-dimensional quasi-static model and ISEE 1 magnetopause crossing data for November 10, 1977. Quasi-trapped populations in the magnetosheath observed near flux transfer events (FTEs) are investigated, and it is shown that the population in the sheath appears to sandwich the FTE distributions. These quasi-trapped distributions are due to slow, large pitch angle, outward moving particles left behind by the outward rush of the ions more field-aligned at the time the flux was opened. It is found that sheath convective flows can map along the connected flux tube without drastically changing the distribution function, and results suggest that localized tangential fields above the upper limit may exist.

Dark matter in 3D

DOE PAGES

Alves, Daniele S. M.; El Hedri, Sonia; Wacker, Jay G.

2016-03-21

We discuss the relevance of directional detection experiments in the post-discovery era and propose a method to extract the local dark matter phase space distribution from directional data. The first feature of this method is a parameterization of the dark matter distribution function in terms of integrals of motion, which can be analytically extended to infer properties of the global distribution if certain equilibrium conditions hold. The second feature of our method is a decomposition of the distribution function in moments of a model independent basis, with minimal reliance on the ansatz for its functional form. We illustrate our methodmore » using the Via Lactea II N-body simulation as well as an analytical model for the dark matter halo. Furthermore, we conclude that O(1000) events are necessary to measure deviations from the Standard Halo Model and constrain or measure the presence of anisotropies.« less

Resolving runaway electron distributions in space, time, and energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz-Soldan, C.; Cooper, C. M.; Aleynikov, P.; Eidietis, N. W.; Lvovskiy, A.; Pace, D. C.; Brennan, D. P.; Hollmann, E. M.; Liu, C.; Moyer, R. A.; Shiraki, D.

2018-05-01

Areas of agreement and disagreement with present-day models of runaway electron (RE) evolution are revealed by measuring MeV-level bremsstrahlung radiation from runaway electrons (REs) with a pinhole camera. Spatially resolved measurements localize the RE beam, reveal energy-dependent RE transport, and can be used to perform full two-dimensional (energy and pitch-angle) inversions of the RE phase-space distribution. Energy-resolved measurements find qualitative agreement with modeling on the role of collisional and synchrotron damping in modifying the RE distribution shape. Measurements are consistent with predictions of phase-space attractors that accumulate REs, with non-monotonic features observed in the distribution. Temporally resolved measurements find qualitative agreement with modeling on the impact of collisional and synchrotron damping in varying the RE growth and decay rate. Anomalous RE loss is observed and found to be largest at low energy. Possible roles for kinetic instability or spatial transport to resolve these anomalies are discussed.

Regional Assessment of Storm-triggered Shall Landslide Risks using the SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D. B.; Fukuoka, H.

2011-12-01

The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. An early warning system applying such physical models has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island in Indonesia and Honduras. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping or hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e. Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically-based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium). The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a Factor of Safety (FS) that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. The system's prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory. In Java Island, Indonesia, evaluation of SLIDE modeling results by local news reports shows that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Further study of SLIDE is implemented in Honduras where Hurricane Mitch triggered widespread landslides in 1998. Results shows within the approximately 1,200 square kilometers study areas, the values of hit rates reached as high as 78% and 75%, while the error indices were 35% and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited in the early warning system by several assumptions including, using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this model will be discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. In conclusion, integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets and physical models in this prototype system enable us to further develop a regional early warning tool in the future for forecasting storm-induced landslides.

Cyberinfrastructure to support Real-time, End-to-End, High Resolution, Localized Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramamurthy, M. K.; Lindholm, D.; Baltzer, T.; Domenico, B.

2004-12-01

From natural disasters such as flooding and forest fires to man-made disasters such as toxic gas releases, the impact of weather-influenced severe events on society can be profound. Understanding, predicting, and mitigating such local, mesoscale events calls for a cyberinfrastructure to integrate multidisciplinary data, tools, and services as well as the capability to generate and use high resolution data (such as wind and precipitation) from localized models. The need for such end to end systems -- including data collection, distribution, integration, assimilation, regionalized mesoscale modeling, analysis, and visualization -- has been realized to some extent in many academic and quasi-operational environments, especially for atmospheric sciences data. However, many challenges still remain in the integration and synthesis of data from multiple sources and the development of interoperable data systems and services across those disciplines. Over the years, the Unidata Program Center has developed several tools that have either directly or indirectly facilitated these local modeling activities. For example, the community is using Unidata technologies such as the Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system, Local Data Manger (LDM), decoders, netCDF libraries, Thematic Realtime Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS), and the Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) in their real-time prediction efforts. In essence, these technologies for data reception and processing, local and remote access, cataloging, and analysis and visualization coupled with technologies from others in the community are becoming the foundation of a cyberinfrastructure to support an end-to-end regional forecasting system. To build on these capabilities, the Unidata Program Center is pleased to be a significant contributor to the Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD) project, a NSF-funded multi-institutional large Information Technology Research effort. The goal of LEAD is to create an integrated and scalable framework for identifying, accessing, preparing, assimilating, predicting, managing, analyzing, mining, and visualizing a broad array of meteorological data and model output, independent of format and physical location. To that end, LEAD will create a series of interconnected, heterogeneous Grid environments to provide a complete framework for mesoscale research, including a set of integrated Grid and Web Services. This talk will focus on the transition from today's end-to-end systems into the types of systems that the LEAD project envisions and the multidisciplinary research problems they will enable.

Inferring Biological Structures from Super-Resolution Single Molecule Images Using Generative Models

PubMed Central

Maji, Suvrajit; Bruchez, Marcel P.

2012-01-01

Localization-based super resolution imaging is presently limited by sampling requirements for dynamic measurements of biological structures. Generating an image requires serial acquisition of individual molecular positions at sufficient density to define a biological structure, increasing the acquisition time. Efficient analysis of biological structures from sparse localization data could substantially improve the dynamic imaging capabilities of these methods. Using a feature extraction technique called the Hough Transform simple biological structures are identified from both simulated and real localization data. We demonstrate that these generative models can efficiently infer biological structures in the data from far fewer localizations than are required for complete spatial sampling. Analysis at partial data densities revealed efficient recovery of clathrin vesicle size distributions and microtubule orientation angles with as little as 10% of the localization data. This approach significantly increases the temporal resolution for dynamic imaging and provides quantitatively useful biological information. PMID:22629348

A bottom-driven mechanism for distributed faulting: Insights from the Gulf of California Rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persaud, P.; Tan, E.; Choi, E.; Contreras, J.; Lavier, L. L.

2017-12-01

The Gulf of California is a young oblique rift that displays a variation in rifting style along strike. Despite the rapid localization of strain in the Gulf at 6 Ma, the northern rift segment has the characteristics of a wide rift, with broadly distributed extensional strain and small gradients in topography and crustal thinning. Observations of active faulting in the continent-ocean transition of the Northern Gulf show multiple oblique-slip faults distributed in a 200 x 70 km2area developed some time after a westward relocation of the plate boundary at 2 Ma. In contrast, north and south of this broad pull-apart structure, major transform faults accommodate Pacific-North America plate motion. Here we propose that the mechanism for distributed brittle deformation results from the boundary conditions present in the Northern Gulf, where basal shear is distributed between the Cerro Prieto strike-slip fault (southernmost fault of the San Andreas fault system) and the Ballenas Transform fault. We hypothesize that in oblique-extensional settings whether deformation is partitioned in a few dip-slip and strike-slip faults, or in numerous oblique-slip faults may depend on (1) bottom-driven, distributed extension and shear deformation of the lower crust or upper mantle, and (2) the rift obliquity. To test this idea, we explore the effects of bottom-driven shear on the deformation of a brittle elastic-plastic layer with pseudo-three dimensional numerical models that include side forces. Strain localization results when the basal shear is a step-function while oblique-slip on numerous faults dominates when basal shear is distributed. We further investigate how the style of faulting varies with obliquity and demonstrate that the style of faulting observed in the Northern Gulf of California is reproduced in models with an obliquity of 0.7 and distributed basal shear boundary conditions, consistent with the interpreted obliquity and boundary conditions of the study area. Our findings motivate a suite of 3D models of the early plate boundary evolution in the Gulf, and highlight the importance of local stress field perturbations as a mechanism for broadening the deformation zone in other regions such as the Basin and Range, Rio Grande Rift and Malawi Rift.

Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

DOE PAGES

Butler, Ethan E.; Datta, Abhirup; Flores-Moreno, Habacuc; ...

2017-12-01

Accurate trait-environment relationships and global maps of plant trait distributions represent a needed stepping stone in global biogeography and are critical constraints of key parameters for land models. Here, we use a global data set of plant traits to map trait distributions closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration: specific leaf area (SLA), and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (Nm) and phosphorus (Pm); We propose two models to extrapolate geographically sparse point data to continuous spatial surfaces. The first is a categorical model using species mean trait values, categorized into plant functional types (PFTs) and extrapolating to PFT occurrencemore » ranges identified by remote sensing. The second is a Bayesian spatial model that incorporates information about PFT, location and environmental covariates to estimate trait distributions. Both models are further stratified by varying the number of PFTs; The performance of the models was evaluated based on their explanatory and predictive ability. The Bayesian spatial model leveraging the largest number of PFTs produced the best maps; The interpolation of full trait distributions enables a wider diversity of vegetation to be represented across the land surface. These maps may be used as input to Earth System Models and to evaluate other estimates of functional diversity.« less

Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Ethan E.; Datta, Abhirup; Flores-Moreno, Habacuc

Accurate trait-environment relationships and global maps of plant trait distributions represent a needed stepping stone in global biogeography and are critical constraints of key parameters for land models. Here, we use a global data set of plant traits to map trait distributions closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration: specific leaf area (SLA), and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (Nm) and phosphorus (Pm); We propose two models to extrapolate geographically sparse point data to continuous spatial surfaces. The first is a categorical model using species mean trait values, categorized into plant functional types (PFTs) and extrapolating to PFT occurrencemore » ranges identified by remote sensing. The second is a Bayesian spatial model that incorporates information about PFT, location and environmental covariates to estimate trait distributions. Both models are further stratified by varying the number of PFTs; The performance of the models was evaluated based on their explanatory and predictive ability. The Bayesian spatial model leveraging the largest number of PFTs produced the best maps; The interpolation of full trait distributions enables a wider diversity of vegetation to be represented across the land surface. These maps may be used as input to Earth System Models and to evaluate other estimates of functional diversity.« less

Pilot-multiplexed continuous-variable quantum key distribution with a real local oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tao; Huang, Peng; Zhou, Yingming; Liu, Weiqi; Zeng, Guihua

2018-01-01

We propose a pilot-multiplexed continuous-variable quantum key distribution (CVQKD) scheme based on a local local oscillator (LLO). Our scheme utilizes time-multiplexing and polarization-multiplexing techniques to dramatically isolate the quantum signal from the pilot, employs two heterodyne detectors to separately detect the signal and the pilot, and adopts a phase compensation method to almost eliminate the multifrequency phase jitter. In order to analyze the performance of our scheme, a general LLO noise model is constructed. Besides the phase noise and the modulation noise, the photon-leakage noise from the reference path and the quantization noise due to the analog-to-digital converter (ADC) are also considered, which are first analyzed in the LLO regime. Under such general noise model, our scheme has a higher key rate and longer secure distance compared with the preexisting LLO schemes. Moreover, we also conduct an experiment to verify our pilot-multiplexed scheme. Results show that it maintains a low level of the phase noise and is expected to obtain a 554-Kbps secure key rate within a 15-km distance under the finite-size effect.

Variational Bayesian Inversion of Quasi-Localized Seismic Attributes for the Spatial Distribution of Geological Facies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nawaz, Muhammad Atif; Curtis, Andrew

2018-04-01

We introduce a new Bayesian inversion method that estimates the spatial distribution of geological facies from attributes of seismic data, by showing how the usual probabilistic inverse problem can be solved using an optimization framework still providing full probabilistic results. Our mathematical model consists of seismic attributes as observed data, which are assumed to have been generated by the geological facies. The method infers the post-inversion (posterior) probability density of the facies plus some other unknown model parameters, from the seismic attributes and geological prior information. Most previous research in this domain is based on the localized likelihoods assumption, whereby the seismic attributes at a location are assumed to depend on the facies only at that location. Such an assumption is unrealistic because of imperfect seismic data acquisition and processing, and fundamental limitations of seismic imaging methods. In this paper, we relax this assumption: we allow probabilistic dependence between seismic attributes at a location and the facies in any neighbourhood of that location through a spatial filter. We term such likelihoods quasi-localized.

Optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator

PubMed Central

Shen, Gang; Hyun, Seung Won; Wong, Weng Kee

2016-01-01

We use optimal design theory and construct locally optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator (MqLE), which is derived under less stringent conditions than those required for the MLE method. We show that the proposed locally optimal designs are asymptotically as efficient as those based on the MLE when the error distribution is from an exponential family, and they perform just as well or better than optimal designs based on any other asymptotically linear unbiased estimators such as the least square estimator (LSE). In addition, we show current algorithms for finding optimal designs can be directly used to find optimal designs based on the MqLE. As an illustrative application, we construct a variety of locally optimal designs based on the MqLE for the 4-parameter logistic (4PL) model and study their robustness properties to misspecifications in the model using asymptotic relative efficiency. The results suggest that optimal designs based on the MqLE can be easily generated and they are quite robust to mis-specification in the probability distribution of the responses. PMID:28163359

Western Greenland Subglacial Hydrologic Modeling and Observables: Seismicity and GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, J. D.; Joughin, I. R.

2010-12-01

I present a hydro-mechanical model of the Western Greenland ice sheet with surface observables for two modes of meltwater input. Using input prescribed from distributed surface data, First, I bound the subglacial carrying capacity for both a distributed and localized system, in a typical summer. I provide observations of the ambient seismic response and its support for an established surface-to-bed connection. Second, I show the ice sheet response to large impulsive hydraulic inputs (lake drainage events) should produce distinct seismic observables that depend upon the localization of the drainage systems. In the former case, the signal propagates as a diffusive wave, while the channelized case, the response is localized. I provide a discussion of how these results are consistent with previous reports (Das et al, 2008, Joughin et al, 2008) of melt-induced speedup along Greenland's Western Flank. Late summer seismicity for a four-receiver array deployed near a supraglacial lake, 68 44.379N, 49 30.064W. Clusters of seismic activity are characterized by dominant shear-wave energy, consistent with basal sliding events.

The co-evolutionary dynamics of directed network of spin market agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horváth, Denis; Kuscsik, Zoltán; Gmitra, Martin

2006-09-01

The spin market model [S. Bornholdt, Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 12 (2001) 667] is generalized by employing co-evolutionary principles, where strategies of the interacting and competitive traders are represented by local and global couplings between the nodes of dynamic directed stochastic network. The co-evolutionary principles are applied in the frame of Bak-Sneppen self-organized dynamics [P. Bak, K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. Lett. 71 (1993) 4083] that includes the processes of selection and extinction actuated by the local (node) fitness. The local fitness is related to orientation of spin agent with respect to the instant magnetization. The stationary regime is formed due to the interplay of self-organization and adaptivity effects. The fat tailed distributions of log-price returns are identified numerically. The non-trivial model consequence is the evidence of the long time market memory indicated by the power-law range of the autocorrelation function of volatility with exponent smaller than one. The simulations yield network topology with broad-scale node degree distribution characterized by the range of exponents 1.3<γin<3 coinciding with social networks.

Exponential stabilization of magnetoelastic waves in a Mindlin-Timoshenko plate by localized internal damping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grobbelaar-Van Dalsen, Marié

2015-08-01

This article is a continuation of our earlier work in Grobbelaar-Van Dalsen (Z Angew Math Phys 63:1047-1065, 2012) on the polynomial stabilization of a linear model for the magnetoelastic interactions in a two-dimensional electrically conducting Mindlin-Timoshenko plate. We introduce nonlinear damping that is effective only in a small portion of the interior of the plate. It turns out that the model is uniformly exponentially stable when the function , that represents the locally distributed damping, behaves linearly near the origin. However, the use of Mindlin-Timoshenko plate theory in the model enforces a restriction on the region occupied by the plate.

The Effect of Surface Ice and Topography on the Atmospheric Circulation and Distribution of Nitrogen Ice on Pluto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafkin, Scot C. R.; Soto, Alejandro; Michaels, Timothy I.

2016-10-01

A newly developed general circulation model (GCM) for Pluto is used to investigate the impact of a heterogeneous distribution of nitrogen surface ice and large scale topography on Pluto's atmospheric circulation. The GCM is based on the GFDL Flexible Modeling System (FSM). Physics include a gray model radiative-conductive scheme, subsurface conduction, and a nitrogen volatile cycle. The radiative-conductive model takes into account the 2.3, 3.3 and 7.8 μm bands of CH4 and CO, including non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects. including non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects. The nitrogen volatile cycle is based on a vapor pressure equilibrium assumption between the atmosphere and surface. Prior to the arrival of the New Horizons spacecraft, the expectation was that the volatile ice distribution on the surface of Pluto would be strongly controlled by the latitudinal temperature gradient. If this were the case, then Pluto would have broad latitudinal bands of both ice covered surface and ice free surface, as dictated by the season. Further, the circulation, and the thus the transport of volatiles, was thought to be driven almost exclusively by sublimation and deposition flows associated with the volatile cycle. In contrast to expectations, images from New Horizon showed an extremely complex, heterogeneous distribution of surface ices draped over substantial and variable topography. To produce such an ice distribution, the atmospheric circulation and volatile transport must be more complex than previously envisioned. Simulations where topography, surface ice distributions, and volatile cycle physics are added individually and in various combinations are used to individually quantify the importance of the general circulation, topography, surface ice distributions, and condensation flows. It is shown that even regional patches of ice or large craters can have global impacts on the atmospheric circulation, the volatile cycle, and hence, the distribution of surface ices. The work demonstrates that explaining Pluto's volatile cycle and the expression of that cycle in the surface ice distributions requires consideration of atmospheric processes beyond simple vapor pressure equilibrium arguments.

Detection prospects for high energy neutrino sources from the anisotropic matter distribution in the local Universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mertsch, Philipp; Rameez, Mohamed; Tamborra, Irene, E-mail: mertsch@nbi.ku.dk, E-mail: mohamed.rameez@nbi.ku.dk, E-mail: tamborra@nbi.ku.dk

Constraints on the number and luminosity of the sources of the cosmic neutrinos detected by IceCube have been set by targeted searches for point sources. We set complementary constraints by using the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS) catalogue, which maps the matter distribution of the local Universe. Assuming that the distribution of the neutrino sources follows that of matter, we look for correlations between ''warm'' spots on the IceCube skymap and the 2MRS matter distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the expected number of neutrino multiplets and careful modelling of the detector performance (including that of IceCube-Gen2), we demonstrate that sourcesmore » with local density exceeding 10{sup −6} Mpc{sup −3} and neutrino luminosity L {sub ν} ∼< 10{sup 42} erg s{sup −1} (10{sup 41} erg s{sup −1}) will be efficiently revealed by our method using IceCube (IceCube-Gen2). At low luminosities such as will be probed by IceCube-Gen2, the sensitivity of this analysis is superior to requiring statistically significant direct observation of a point source.« less

Statistical distributions of avalanche size and waiting times in an inter-sandpile cascade model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batac, Rene; Longjas, Anthony; Monterola, Christopher

2012-02-01

Sandpile-based models have successfully shed light on key features of nonlinear relaxational processes in nature, particularly the occurrence of fat-tailed magnitude distributions and exponential return times, from simple local stress redistributions. In this work, we extend the existing sandpile paradigm into an inter-sandpile cascade, wherein the avalanches emanating from a uniformly-driven sandpile (first layer) is used to trigger the next (second layer), and so on, in a successive fashion. Statistical characterizations reveal that avalanche size distributions evolve from a power-law p(S)≈S-1.3 for the first layer to gamma distributions p(S)≈Sαexp(-S/S0) for layers far away from the uniformly driven sandpile. The resulting avalanche size statistics is found to be associated with the corresponding waiting time distribution, as explained in an accompanying analytic formulation. Interestingly, both the numerical and analytic models show good agreement with actual inventories of non-uniformly driven events in nature.

Dynamical effects of the spiral arms on the velocity distribution of disc stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattori, Kohei; Gouda, Naoteru; Yano, Taihei; Sakai, Nobuyuki; Tagawa, Hiromichi

2018-04-01

Nearby disc stars in Gaia DR1 (TGAS) and RAVE DR5 show a bimodal velocity distribution in the metal-rich region (characterized by the Hercules stream) and mono-modal velocity distribution in the metal-poor region. We investigate the origin of this [Fe/H] dependence of the local velocity distribution by using 2D test particle simulations. We found that this [Fe/H] dependence can be well reproduced if we assume fast rotating bar models with Ωbar ~= 52 km s-1 kpc-1. A possible explanation for this result is that the metal-rich, relatively young stars are more likely to be affected by bar's outer Lindblad resonance due to their relatively cold kinematics. We also found that slowly rotating bar models with Ωbar ~= 39 km s-1 kpc-1 can not reproduce the observed data. Interestingly, when we additionally consider spiral arms, some models can reproduce the observed velocity distribution even when the bar is slowly rotating.

Synoptic Sampling to Determine Distributed Groundwater-Surface Water Nitrate Loading and Removal Potential Along a Lowland River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, Henry; Villamizar, Sandra R.; Harmon, Thomas C.

2017-11-01

Delineating pollutant reactive transport pathways that connect local land use patterns to surface water is an important goal. This work illustrates high-resolution river mapping of salinity or specific conductance (SC) and nitrate (NO3-) as a potential part of achieving this goal. We observed longitudinal river SC and nitrate distributions using high-resolution synoptic in situ sensing along the lower Merced River (38 river km) in Central California (USA) from 2010 to 2012. We calibrated a distributed groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) discharge model for a conservative solute using 13 synoptic SC sampling events at flows ranging from 1.3 to 31.6 m3 s-1. Nitrogen loads ranged from 0.3 to 1.6 kg N d-1 and were greater following an extended high flow period during a wet winter. Applying the distributed GW-SW discharge estimates to a simplistic reactive nitrate transport model, the model reproduced observed river nitrate distribution well (RRMSE = 5-21%), with dimensionless watershed-averaged nitrate removal (kt) ranging from 0 to 0.43. Estimates were uncertain due to GW nitrate data variability, but the resulting range was consistent with prior removal estimates. At the segment scale, estimated GW-SW nitrate loading ranged from 0 to 17 g NO3- s-1 km-1. Local loading peaked near the middle of the study reach, a location that coincides with a shallow clay lens and with confined animal feed operations in close proximity to the river. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential for high-resolution synoptic monitoring to support GW-SW modeling efforts aimed at understanding and managing nonpoint source pollution.

An observationally centred method to quantify local climate change as a distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

For planning and adaptation, guidance on trends in local climate is needed at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This requires quantifying trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. These non-normal distributions vary both geographically and in time. The trends in the relevant quantiles may not simply follow the trend in the distribution mean. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs how the trend or sensitivity varies with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. These sensitivities are found to be geographically varying across Europe; as one would expect given the different influences on local climate between, say, Western Scotland and central Italy. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Modeling of Thermal Behavior of Raw Natural Gas Air Coolers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherbinin, S. V.; Prakhova, M. Yu; Krasnov, A. N.; Khoroshavina, E. A.

2018-05-01

When gas is being prepared for a long-range transportation, it passes through air cooling units (ACUs) after compressing; there, hot gas passing through finned tubes is cooled with air streams. ACU's mode of operation shall ensure a certain value of gas temperature at the ACU's outlet. At that, when cooling raw gas, temperature distribution along all the tubes shall be known to prevent local hydrate formation. The paper proposes a mathematical model allowing one to obtain a thermal field distribution inside the ACU and study influence of various factors onto it.

Multi-scale Characterization and Modeling of Surface Slope Probability Distribution for ~20-km Diameter Lunar Craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahanti, P.; Robinson, M. S.; Boyd, A. K.

2013-12-01

Craters ~20-km diameter and above significantly shaped the lunar landscape. The statistical nature of the slope distribution on their walls and floors dominate the overall slope distribution statistics for the lunar surface. Slope statistics are inherently useful for characterizing the current topography of the surface, determining accurate photometric and surface scattering properties, and in defining lunar surface trafficability [1-4]. Earlier experimental studies on the statistical nature of lunar surface slopes were restricted either by resolution limits (Apollo era photogrammetric studies) or by model error considerations (photoclinometric and radar scattering studies) where the true nature of slope probability distribution was not discernible at baselines smaller than a kilometer[2,3,5]. Accordingly, historical modeling of lunar surface slopes probability distributions for applications such as in scattering theory development or rover traversability assessment is more general in nature (use of simple statistical models such as the Gaussian distribution[1,2,5,6]). With the advent of high resolution, high precision topographic models of the Moon[7,8], slopes in lunar craters can now be obtained at baselines as low as 6-meters allowing unprecedented multi-scale (multiple baselines) modeling possibilities for slope probability distributions. Topographic analysis (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) 2-m digital elevation models (DEM)) of ~20-km diameter Copernican lunar craters revealed generally steep slopes on interior walls (30° to 36°, locally exceeding 40°) over 15-meter baselines[9]. In this work, we extend the analysis from a probability distribution modeling point-of-view with NAC DEMs to characterize the slope statistics for the floors and walls for the same ~20-km Copernican lunar craters. The difference in slope standard deviations between the Gaussian approximation and the actual distribution (2-meter sampling) was computed over multiple scales. This slope analysis showed that local slope distributions are non-Gaussian for both crater walls and floors. Over larger baselines (~100 meters), crater wall slope probability distributions do approximate Gaussian distributions better, but have long distribution tails. Crater floor probability distributions however, were always asymmetric (for the baseline scales analyzed) and less affected by baseline scale variations. Accordingly, our results suggest that use of long tailed probability distributions (like Cauchy) and a baseline-dependant multi-scale model can be more effective in describing the slope statistics for lunar topography. Refrences: [1]Moore, H.(1971), JGR,75(11) [2]Marcus, A. H.(1969),JGR,74 (22).[3]R.J. Pike (1970),U.S. Geological Survey Working Paper [4]N. C. Costes, J. E. Farmer and E. B. George (1972),NASA Technical Report TR R-401 [5]M. N. Parker and G. L. Tyler(1973), Radio Science, 8(3),177-184 [6]Alekseev, V. A.et al (1968), Soviet Astronomy, Vol. 11, p.860 [7]Burns et al. (2012) Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XXXIX-B4, 483-488.[8]Smith et al. (2010) GRL 37, L18204, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043751. [9]Wagner R., Robinson, M., Speyerer E., Mahanti, P., LPSC 2013, #2924.

The Modelled Raindrop Size Distribution of Skudai, Peninsular Malaysia, Using Exponential and Lognormal Distributions

PubMed Central

Yakubu, Mahadi Lawan; Yusop, Zulkifli; Yusof, Fadhilah

2014-01-01

This paper presents the modelled raindrop size parameters in Skudai region of the Johor Bahru, western Malaysia. Presently, there is no model to forecast the characteristics of DSD in Malaysia, and this has an underpinning implication on wet weather pollution predictions. The climate of Skudai exhibits local variability in regional scale. This study established five different parametric expressions describing the rain rate of Skudai; these models are idiosyncratic to the climate of the region. Sophisticated equipment that converts sound to a relevant raindrop diameter is often too expensive and its cost sometimes overrides its attractiveness. In this study, a physical low-cost method was used to record the DSD of the study area. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to test the aptness of the data to exponential and lognormal distributions, which were subsequently used to formulate the parameterisation of the distributions. This research abrogates the concept of exclusive occurrence of convective storm in tropical regions and presented a new insight into their concurrence appearance. PMID:25126597

Seasonal Variation in the Spatial Distribution of Basking Sharks (Cetorhinus maximus) in the Lower Bay of Fundy, Canada

PubMed Central

Siders, Zachary A.; Westgate, Andrew J.; Johnston, David W.; Murison, Laurie D.; Koopman, Heather N.

2013-01-01

The local distribution of basking sharks in the Bay of Fundy (BoF) is unknown despite frequent occurrences in the area from May to November. Defining this species’ spatial habitat use is critical for accurately assessing its Special Concern conservation status in Atlantic Canada. We developed maximum entropy distribution models for the lower BoF and the northeast Gulf of Maine (GoM) to describe spatiotemporal variation in habitat use of basking sharks. Under the Maxent framework, we assessed model responses and distribution shifts in relation to known migratory behavior and local prey dynamics. We used 10 years (2002-2011) of basking shark surface sightings from July-October acquired during boat-based surveys in relation to chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, bathymetric features, and distance to seafloor contours to assess habitat suitability. Maximum entropy estimations were selected based on AICc criterion and used to predict habitat utilizing three model-fitting routines as well as converted to binary suitable/non-suitable habitat using the maximum sensitivity and specificity threshold. All models predicted habitat better than random (AUC values >0.796). From July-September, a majority of habitat was in the BoF, in waters >100 m deep, and in the Grand Manan Basin. In October, a majority of the habitat shifted southward into the GoM and to areas >200 m deep. Model responses suggest that suitable habitat from July - October is dependent on a mix of distance to the 0, 100, 150, and 200 m contours but in some models on sea surface temperature (July) and chlorophyll-a (August and September). Our results reveal temporally dynamic habitat use of basking sharks within the BoF and GoM. The relative importance of predictor variables suggests that prey dynamics constrained the species distribution in the BoF. Also, suitable habitat shifted minimally from July-September providing opportunities to conserve the species during peak abundance in the region. PMID:24324747

Mapping the changing pattern of local climate as an observed distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

It is at local scales that the impacts of climate change will be felt directly and at which adaptation planning decisions must be made. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about the pattern of local climate change. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs the pattern of variation in sensitivity with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify and map the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Modelling of human low frequency sound localization acuity demonstrates dominance of spatial variation of interaural time difference and suggests uniform just-noticeable differences in interaural time difference.

PubMed

Smith, Rosanna C G; Price, Stephen R

2014-01-01

Sound source localization is critical to animal survival and for identification of auditory objects. We investigated the acuity with which humans localize low frequency, pure tone sounds using timing differences between the ears. These small differences in time, known as interaural time differences or ITDs, are identified in a manner that allows localization acuity of around 1° at the midline. Acuity, a relative measure of localization ability, displays a non-linear variation as sound sources are positioned more laterally. All species studied localize sounds best at the midline and progressively worse as the sound is located out towards the side. To understand why sound localization displays this variation with azimuthal angle, we took a first-principles, systemic, analytical approach to model localization acuity. We calculated how ITDs vary with sound frequency, head size and sound source location for humans. This allowed us to model ITD variation for previously published experimental acuity data and determine the distribution of just-noticeable differences in ITD. Our results suggest that the best-fit model is one whereby just-noticeable differences in ITDs are identified with uniform or close to uniform sensitivity across the physiological range. We discuss how our results have several implications for neural ITD processing in different species as well as development of the auditory system.

Bak-Sneppen model: Local equilibrium and critical value.

PubMed

Fraiman, Daniel

2018-04-01

The Bak-Sneppen (BS) model is a very simple model that exhibits all the richness of self-organized criticality theory. At the thermodynamic limit, the BS model converges to a situation where all particles have a fitness that is uniformly distributed between a critical value p_{c} and 1. The p_{c} value is unknown, as are the variables that influence and determine this value. Here we study the BS model in the case in which the lowest fitness particle interacts with an arbitrary even number of m nearest neighbors. We show that p_{c} verifies a simple local equilibrium relation. Based on this relation, we can determine bounds for p_{c} of the BS model and exact results for some BS-like models. Finally, we show how transformations of the original BS model can be done without altering the model's complex dynamics.

Bak-Sneppen model: Local equilibrium and critical value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraiman, Daniel

2018-04-01

The Bak-Sneppen (BS) model is a very simple model that exhibits all the richness of self-organized criticality theory. At the thermodynamic limit, the BS model converges to a situation where all particles have a fitness that is uniformly distributed between a critical value pc and 1. The pc value is unknown, as are the variables that influence and determine this value. Here we study the BS model in the case in which the lowest fitness particle interacts with an arbitrary even number of m nearest neighbors. We show that pc verifies a simple local equilibrium relation. Based on this relation, we can determine bounds for pc of the BS model and exact results for some BS-like models. Finally, we show how transformations of the original BS model can be done without altering the model's complex dynamics.

Numerical Simulations of Vortical Mode Stirring: Effects of Large Scale Shear and Strain

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Numerical Simulations of Vortical Mode Stirring: Effects of Large-Scale Shear and Strain M.-Pascale Lelong NorthWest Research Associates...can be implemented in larger-scale ocean models. These parameterizations will incorporate the effects of local ambient conditions including latitude...talk at the 1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Nonlinear Effects in Internal Waves Conference held

Geography and the costs of urban energy infrastructure: The case of electricity and natural gas capital investments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senyel, Muzeyyen Anil

Investments in the urban energy infrastructure for distributing electricity and natural gas are analyzed using (1) property data measuring distribution plant value at the local/tax district level, and (2) system outputs such as sectoral numbers of customers and energy sales, input prices, company-specific characteristics such as average wages and load factor. Socio-economic and site-specific urban and geographic variables, however, often been neglected in past studies. The purpose of this research is to incorporate these site-specific characteristics of electricity and natural gas distribution into investment cost model estimations. These local characteristics include (1) socio-economic variables, such as income and wealth; (2) urban-related variables, such as density, land-use, street pattern, housing pattern; (3) geographic and environmental variables, such as soil, topography, and weather, and (4) company-specific characteristics such as average wages, and load factor. The classical output variables include residential and commercial-industrial customers and sales. In contrast to most previous research, only capital investments at the local level are considered. In addition to aggregate cost modeling, the analysis focuses on the investment costs for the system components: overhead conductors, underground conductors, conduits, poles, transformers, services, street lighting, and station equipment for electricity distribution; and mains, services, regular and industrial measurement and regulation stations for natural gas distribution. The Box-Cox, log-log and additive models are compared to determine the best fitting cost functions. The Box-Cox form turns out to be superior to the other forms at the aggregate level and for network components. However, a linear additive form provides a better fit for end-user related components. The results show that, in addition to output variables and company-specific variables, various site-specific variables are statistically significant at the aggregate and disaggregate levels. Local electricity and natural gas distribution networks are characterized by a natural monopoly cost structure and economies of scale and density. The results provide evidence for the economies of scale and density for the aggregate electricity and natural gas distribution systems. However, distribution components have varying economic characteristics. The backbones of the networks (overhead conductors for electricity, and mains for natural gas) display economies of scale and density, but services in both systems and street lighting display diseconomies of scale and diseconomies of density. Finally multi-utility network cost analyses are presented for aggregate and disaggregate electricity and natural gas capital investments. Economies of scope analyses investigate whether providing electricity and natural gas jointly is economically advantageous, as compared to providing these products separately. Significant economies of scope are observed for both the total network and the underground capital investments.

Hierarchical representation of shapes in visual cortex—from localized features to figural shape segregation

PubMed Central

Tschechne, Stephan; Neumann, Heiko

2014-01-01

Visual structures in the environment are segmented into image regions and those combined to a representation of surfaces and prototypical objects. Such a perceptual organization is performed by complex neural mechanisms in the visual cortex of primates. Multiple mutually connected areas in the ventral cortical pathway receive visual input and extract local form features that are subsequently grouped into increasingly complex, more meaningful image elements. Such a distributed network of processing must be capable to make accessible highly articulated changes in shape boundary as well as very subtle curvature changes that contribute to the perception of an object. We propose a recurrent computational network architecture that utilizes hierarchical distributed representations of shape features to encode surface and object boundary over different scales of resolution. Our model makes use of neural mechanisms that model the processing capabilities of early and intermediate stages in visual cortex, namely areas V1–V4 and IT. We suggest that multiple specialized component representations interact by feedforward hierarchical processing that is combined with feedback signals driven by representations generated at higher stages. Based on this, global configurational as well as local information is made available to distinguish changes in the object's contour. Once the outline of a shape has been established, contextual contour configurations are used to assign border ownership directions and thus achieve segregation of figure and ground. The model, thus, proposes how separate mechanisms contribute to distributed hierarchical cortical shape representation and combine with processes of figure-ground segregation. Our model is probed with a selection of stimuli to illustrate processing results at different processing stages. We especially highlight how modulatory feedback connections contribute to the processing of visual input at various stages in the processing hierarchy. PMID:25157228

Hierarchical representation of shapes in visual cortex-from localized features to figural shape segregation.

PubMed

Tschechne, Stephan; Neumann, Heiko

2014-01-01

Visual structures in the environment are segmented into image regions and those combined to a representation of surfaces and prototypical objects. Such a perceptual organization is performed by complex neural mechanisms in the visual cortex of primates. Multiple mutually connected areas in the ventral cortical pathway receive visual input and extract local form features that are subsequently grouped into increasingly complex, more meaningful image elements. Such a distributed network of processing must be capable to make accessible highly articulated changes in shape boundary as well as very subtle curvature changes that contribute to the perception of an object. We propose a recurrent computational network architecture that utilizes hierarchical distributed representations of shape features to encode surface and object boundary over different scales of resolution. Our model makes use of neural mechanisms that model the processing capabilities of early and intermediate stages in visual cortex, namely areas V1-V4 and IT. We suggest that multiple specialized component representations interact by feedforward hierarchical processing that is combined with feedback signals driven by representations generated at higher stages. Based on this, global configurational as well as local information is made available to distinguish changes in the object's contour. Once the outline of a shape has been established, contextual contour configurations are used to assign border ownership directions and thus achieve segregation of figure and ground. The model, thus, proposes how separate mechanisms contribute to distributed hierarchical cortical shape representation and combine with processes of figure-ground segregation. Our model is probed with a selection of stimuli to illustrate processing results at different processing stages. We especially highlight how modulatory feedback connections contribute to the processing of visual input at various stages in the processing hierarchy.

Analysis of nonlocal neural fields for both general and gamma-distributed connectivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutt, Axel; Atay, Fatihcan M.

2005-04-01

This work studies the stability of equilibria in spatially extended neuronal ensembles. We first derive the model equation from statistical properties of the neuron population. The obtained integro-differential equation includes synaptic and space-dependent transmission delay for both general and gamma-distributed synaptic connectivities. The latter connectivity type reveals infinite, finite, and vanishing self-connectivities. The work derives conditions for stationary and nonstationary instabilities for both kernel types. In addition, a nonlinear analysis for general kernels yields the order parameter equation of the Turing instability. To compare the results to findings for partial differential equations (PDEs), two typical PDE-types are derived from the examined model equation, namely the general reaction-diffusion equation and the Swift-Hohenberg equation. Hence, the discussed integro-differential equation generalizes these PDEs. In the case of the gamma-distributed kernels, the stability conditions are formulated in terms of the mean excitatory and inhibitory interaction ranges. As a novel finding, we obtain Turing instabilities in fields with local inhibition-lateral excitation, while wave instabilities occur in fields with local excitation and lateral inhibition. Numerical simulations support the analytical results.

Growing and navigating the small world Web by local content

PubMed Central

Menczer, Filippo

2002-01-01

Can we model the scale-free distribution of Web hypertext degree under realistic assumptions about the behavior of page authors? Can a Web crawler efficiently locate an unknown relevant page? These questions are receiving much attention due to their potential impact for understanding the structure of the Web and for building better search engines. Here I investigate the connection between the linkage and content topology of Web pages. The relationship between a text-induced distance metric and a link-based neighborhood probability distribution displays a phase transition between a region where linkage is not determined by content and one where linkage decays according to a power law. This relationship is used to propose a Web growth model that is shown to accurately predict the distribution of Web page degree, based on textual content and assuming only local knowledge of degree for existing pages. A qualitatively similar phase transition is found between linkage and semantic distance, with an exponential decay tail. Both relationships suggest that efficient paths can be discovered by decentralized Web navigation algorithms based on textual and/or categorical cues. PMID:12381792

Growing and navigating the small world Web by local content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menczer, Filippo

2002-10-01

Can we model the scale-free distribution of Web hypertext degree under realistic assumptions about the behavior of page authors? Can a Web crawler efficiently locate an unknown relevant page? These questions are receiving much attention due to their potential impact for understanding the structure of the Web and for building better search engines. Here I investigate the connection between the linkage and content topology of Web pages. The relationship between a text-induced distance metric and a link-based neighborhood probability distribution displays a phase transition between a region where linkage is not determined by content and one where linkage decays according to a power law. This relationship is used to propose a Web growth model that is shown to accurately predict the distribution of Web page degree, based on textual content and assuming only local knowledge of degree for existing pages. A qualitatively similar phase transition is found between linkage and semantic distance, with an exponential decay tail. Both relationships suggest that efficient paths can be discovered by decentralized Web navigation algorithms based on textual and/or categorical cues.

Growing and navigating the small world Web by local content.

PubMed

Menczer, Filippo

2002-10-29

Can we model the scale-free distribution of Web hypertext degree under realistic assumptions about the behavior of page authors? Can a Web crawler efficiently locate an unknown relevant page? These questions are receiving much attention due to their potential impact for understanding the structure of the Web and for building better search engines. Here I investigate the connection between the linkage and content topology of Web pages. The relationship between a text-induced distance metric and a link-based neighborhood probability distribution displays a phase transition between a region where linkage is not determined by content and one where linkage decays according to a power law. This relationship is used to propose a Web growth model that is shown to accurately predict the distribution of Web page degree, based on textual content and assuming only local knowledge of degree for existing pages. A qualitatively similar phase transition is found between linkage and semantic distance, with an exponential decay tail. Both relationships suggest that efficient paths can be discovered by decentralized Web navigation algorithms based on textual and/or categorical cues.

The calculating study of the moisture transfer influence at the temperature field in a porous wet medium with internal heat sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzevanov, V. S.; Garyaev, A. B.; Zakozhurnikova, G. S.; Zakozhurnikov, S. S.

2017-11-01

A porous wet medium with solid and gaseous components, with distributed or localized heat sources was considered. The regimes of temperature changes at the heating at various initial material moisture were studied. Mathematical model was developed applied to the investigated wet porous multicomponent medium with internal heat sources, taking into account the transfer of the heat by heat conductivity with variable thermal parameters and porosity, heat transfer by radiation, chemical reactions, drying and moistening of solids, heat and mass transfer of volatile products of chemical reactions by flows filtration, transfer of moisture. The algorithm of numerical calculation and the computer program that implements the proposed mathematical model, allowing to study the dynamics of warming up at a local or distributed heat release, in particular the impact of the transfer of moisture in the medium on the temperature field were created. Graphs of temperature change were obtained at different points of the graphics with different initial moisture. Conclusions about the possible control of the regimes of heating a solid porous body by the initial moisture distribution were made.

Activation Time of Cardiac Tissue In Response to a Linear Array of Spatial Alternating Bipolar Electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashburn, David; Wikswo, John

2007-11-01

Prevailing theories about the response of the heart to high field shocks predict that local regions of high resistivity distributed throughout the heart create multiple small virtual electrodes that hyperpolarize or depolarize tissue and lead to widespread activation. This resetting of bulk tissue is responsible for the successful functioning of cardiac defibrillators. By activating cardiac tissue with regular linear arrays of spatially alternating bipolar currents, we can simulate these potentials locally. We have studied the activation time due to distributed currents in both a 1D Beeler-Reuter model and on the surface of the whole heart, varying the strength of each source and the separation between them. By comparison with activation time data from actual field shock of a whole heart in a bath, we hope to better understand these transient virtual electrodes. Our work was done on rabbit RV using florescent optical imaging and our Phased Array Stimulator for driving the 16 current sources. Our model shows that for a total absolute current delivered to a region of tissue, the entire region activates faster if above-threshold sources are more distributed.

A Short-Term and High-Resolution System Load Forecasting Approach Using Support Vector Regression with Hybrid Parameters Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang

This work proposes an approach for distribution system load forecasting, which aims to provide highly accurate short-term load forecasting with high resolution utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and a two-step hybrid parameters optimization method. Specifically, because the load profiles in distribution systems contain abrupt deviations, a data normalization is designed as the pretreatment for the collected historical load data. Then an SVR model is trained by the load data to forecast the future load. For better performance of SVR, a two-step hybrid optimization algorithm is proposed to determine the best parameters. In the first step of themore » hybrid optimization algorithm, a designed grid traverse algorithm (GTA) is used to narrow the parameters searching area from a global to local space. In the second step, based on the result of the GTA, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the best parameters in the local parameter space. After the best parameters are determined, the SVR model is used to forecast the short-term load deviation in the distribution system.« less

System analysis for the Huntsville Operation Support Center distributed computer system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.

1986-01-01

A simulation model of the NASA Huntsville Operational Support Center (HOSC) was developed. This simulation model emulates the HYPERchannel Local Area Network (LAN) that ties together the various computers of HOSC. The HOSC system is a large installation of mainframe computers such as the Perkin Elmer 3200 series and the Dec VAX series. A series of six simulation exercises of the HOSC model is described using data sets provided by NASA. The analytical analysis of the ETHERNET LAN and the video terminals (VTs) distribution system are presented. An interface analysis of the smart terminal network model which allows the data flow requirements due to VTs on the ETHERNET LAN to be estimated, is presented.

Numerical and experimental study on vorticity measurement in liquid metal using local Lorentz force velocimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Daniel; Marangoni, Rafael; Schleichert, Jan; Karcher, Christian; Fröhlich, Thomas; Wondrak, Thomas

2018-03-01

Local Lorentz force velocimetry (local LFV) is a contactless velocity measurement technique for liquid metals. Due to the relative movement between an electrically conductive fluid and a static applied magnetic field, eddy currents and a flow-braking Lorentz force are generated inside the metal melt. This force is proportional to the flow rate or to the local velocity, depending on the volume subset of the flow spanned by the magnetic field. By using small-size magnets, a localized magnetic field distribution is achieved allowing a local velocity assessment in the region adjacent to the wall. In the present study, we describe a numerical model of our experiments at a continuous caster model where the working fluid is GaInSn in eutectic composition. Our main goal is to demonstrate that this electromagnetic technique can be applied to measure vorticity distributions, i.e. to resolve velocity gradients as well. Our results show that by using a cross-shaped magnet system, the magnitude of the torque perpendicular to the surface of the mold significantly increases improving its measurement in a liquid metal flow. According to our numerical model, this torque correlates with the vorticity of the velocity in this direction. Before validating our numerical predictions, an electromagnetic dry calibration of the measurement system composed of a multicomponent force and torque sensor and a cross-shaped magnet was done using a rotating disk made of aluminum. The sensor is able to measure simultaneously all three components of force and torque, respectively. This calibration step cannot be avoided and it is used for an accurate definition of the center of the magnet with respect to the sensor’s coordinate system for torque measurements. Finally, we present the results of the experiments at the mini-LIMMCAST facility showing a good agreement with the numerical model.

Local-aggregate modeling for big data via distributed optimization: Applications to neuroimaging.

PubMed

Hu, Yue; Allen, Genevera I

2015-12-01

Technological advances have led to a proliferation of structured big data that have matrix-valued covariates. We are specifically motivated to build predictive models for multi-subject neuroimaging data based on each subject's brain imaging scans. This is an ultra-high-dimensional problem that consists of a matrix of covariates (brain locations by time points) for each subject; few methods currently exist to fit supervised models directly to this tensor data. We propose a novel modeling and algorithmic strategy to apply generalized linear models (GLMs) to this massive tensor data in which one set of variables is associated with locations. Our method begins by fitting GLMs to each location separately, and then builds an ensemble by blending information across locations through regularization with what we term an aggregating penalty. Our so called, Local-Aggregate Model, can be fit in a completely distributed manner over the locations using an Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) strategy, and thus greatly reduces the computational burden. Furthermore, we propose to select the appropriate model through a novel sequence of faster algorithmic solutions that is similar to regularization paths. We will demonstrate both the computational and predictive modeling advantages of our methods via simulations and an EEG classification problem. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

A hierarchical Bayesian GEV model for improving local and regional flood quantile estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Lall, Upmanu; Troy, Tara; Devineni, Naresh

2016-10-01

We estimate local and regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters for flood frequency analysis in a multilevel, hierarchical Bayesian framework, to explicitly model and reduce uncertainties. As prior information for the model, we assume that the GEV location and scale parameters for each site come from independent log-normal distributions, whose mean parameter scales with the drainage area. From empirical and theoretical arguments, the shape parameter for each site is shrunk towards a common mean. Non-informative prior distributions are assumed for the hyperparameters and the MCMC method is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution. The model is tested using annual maximum series from 20 streamflow gauges located in an 83,000 km2 flood prone basin in Southeast Brazil. The results show a significant reduction of uncertainty estimates of flood quantile estimates over the traditional GEV model, particularly for sites with shorter records. For return periods within the range of the data (around 50 years), the Bayesian credible intervals for the flood quantiles tend to be narrower than the classical confidence limits based on the delta method. As the return period increases beyond the range of the data, the confidence limits from the delta method become unreliable and the Bayesian credible intervals provide a way to estimate satisfactory confidence bands for the flood quantiles considering parameter uncertainties and regional information. In order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for regional flood frequency analysis, we estimate flood quantiles for three randomly chosen out-of-sample sites and compare with classical estimates using the index flood method. The posterior distributions of the scaling law coefficients are used to define the predictive distributions of the GEV location and scale parameters for the out-of-sample sites given only their drainage areas and the posterior distribution of the average shape parameter is taken as the regional predictive distribution for this parameter. While the index flood method does not provide a straightforward way to consider the uncertainties in the index flood and in the regional parameters, the results obtained here show that the proposed Bayesian method is able to produce adequate credible intervals for flood quantiles that are in accordance with empirical estimates.

Pinning time statistics for vortex lines in disordered environments.

PubMed

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C

2014-12-01

We study the pinning dynamics of magnetic flux (vortex) lines in a disordered type-II superconductor. Using numerical simulations of a directed elastic line model, we extract the pinning time distributions of vortex line segments. We compare different model implementations for the disorder in the surrounding medium: discrete, localized pinning potential wells that are either attractive and repulsive or purely attractive, and whose strengths are drawn from a Gaussian distribution; as well as continuous Gaussian random potential landscapes. We find that both schemes yield power-law distributions in the pinned phase as predicted by extreme-event statistics, yet they differ significantly in their effective scaling exponents and their short-time behavior.

Rapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2005-01-01

Rapid tsunami models have recently been developed to forecast far-field tsunami amplitudes from initial earthquake information (magnitude and hypocenter). Earthquake source parameters that directly affect tsunami generation as used in rapid tsunami models are examined, with particular attention to local versus far-field application of those models. First, validity of the assumption that the focal mechanism and type of faulting for tsunamigenic earthquakes is similar in a given region can be evaluated by measuring the seismic consistency of past events. Second, the assumption that slip occurs uniformly over an area of rupture will most often underestimate the amplitude and leading-wave steepness of the local tsunami. Third, sometimes large magnitude earthquakes will exhibit a high degree of spatial heterogeneity such that tsunami sources will be composed of distinct sub-events that can cause constructive and destructive interference in the wavefield away from the source. Using a stochastic source model, it is demonstrated that local tsunami amplitudes vary by as much as a factor of two or more, depending on the local bathymetry. If other earthquake source parameters such as focal depth or shear modulus are varied in addition to the slip distribution patterns, even greater uncertainty in local tsunami amplitude is expected for earthquakes of similar magnitude. Because of the short amount of time available to issue local warnings and because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with local, model-based forecasts as suggested by this study, direct wave height observations and a strong public education and preparedness program are critical for those regions near suspected tsunami sources.

Temperature and composition dependence of short-range order and entropy, and statistics of bond length: the semiconductor alloy (GaN)(1-x)(ZnO)(x).

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Pedroza, Luana S; Misch, Carissa; Fernández-Serra, Maria V; Allen, Philip B

2014-07-09

We present total energy and force calculations for the (GaN)1-x(ZnO)x alloy. Site-occupancy configurations are generated from Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, on the basis of a cluster expansion model proposed in a previous study. Local atomic coordinate relaxations of surprisingly large magnitude are found via density-functional calculations using a 432-atom periodic supercell, for three representative configurations at x = 0.5. These are used to generate bond-length distributions. The configurationally averaged composition- and temperature-dependent short-range order (SRO) parameters of the alloys are discussed. The entropy is approximated in terms of pair distribution statistics and thus related to SRO parameters. This approximate entropy is compared with accurate numerical values from MC simulations. An empirical model for the dependence of the bond length on the local chemical environments is proposed.

Visualization of the operational space of edge-localized modes through low-dimensional embedding of probability distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shabbir, A., E-mail: aqsa.shabbir@ugent.be; Noterdaeme, J. M.; Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Garching D-85748

2014-11-15

Information visualization aimed at facilitating human perception is an important tool for the interpretation of experiments on the basis of complex multidimensional data characterizing the operational space of fusion devices. This work describes a method for visualizing the operational space on a two-dimensional map and applies it to the discrimination of type I and type III edge-localized modes (ELMs) from a series of carbon-wall ELMy discharges at JET. The approach accounts for stochastic uncertainties that play an important role in fusion data sets, by modeling measurements with probability distributions in a metric space. The method is aimed at contributing tomore » physical understanding of ELMs as well as their control. Furthermore, it is a general method that can be applied to the modeling of various other plasma phenomena as well.« less

Rigorous Proof of the Boltzmann-Gibbs Distribution of Money on Connected Graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanchier, Nicolas

2017-04-01

Models in econophysics, i.e., the emerging field of statistical physics that applies the main concepts of traditional physics to economics, typically consist of large systems of economic agents who are characterized by the amount of money they have. In the simplest model, at each time step, one agent gives one dollar to another agent, with both agents being chosen independently and uniformly at random from the system. Numerical simulations of this model suggest that, at least when the number of agents and the average amount of money per agent are large, the distribution of money converges to an exponential distribution reminiscent of the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution of energy in physics. The main objective of this paper is to give a rigorous proof of this result and show that the convergence to the exponential distribution holds more generally when the economic agents are located on the vertices of a connected graph and interact locally with their neighbors rather than globally with all the other agents. We also study a closely related model where, at each time step, agents buy with a probability proportional to the amount of money they have, and prove that in this case the limiting distribution of money is Poissonian.

CP violation in multibody B decays from QCD factorization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Rebecca; Mannel, Thomas; Virto, Javier; Vos, K. Keri

2017-10-01

We test a data-driven approach based on QCD factorization for charmless three-body B-decays by confronting it to measurements of CP violation in B - → π - π + π -. While some of the needed non-perturbative objects can be directly extracted from data, some others can, so far, only be modelled. Although this approach is currently model dependent, we comment on the perspectives to reduce this model dependence. While our model naturally accommodates the gross features of the Dalitz distribution, it cannot quantitatively explain the details seen in the current experimental data on local CP asymmetries. We comment on possible refinements of our simple model and conclude by briefly discussing a possible extension of the model to large invariant masses, where large local CP asymmetries have been measured.

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines

PubMed Central

Tellería, José L.; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

2016-01-01

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050–2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean. PMID:26761791

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: A study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this study, a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The DREAM is a multi-chainmore » method and uses differential evolution technique for chain movement, allowing it to be efficiently applied to high-dimensional problems, and can reliably estimate heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions that are difficult for single-chain schemes using a Gaussian proposal distribution. The results were evaluated against the popular Adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. DREAM indicated that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identified one mode. The calibration of DREAM resulted in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the AM. DREAM provides means for a good exploration of the posterior distributions of model parameters. Lastly, it reduces the risk of false convergence to a local optimum and potentially improves the predictive performance of the calibrated model.« less

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: A study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; ...

2017-02-22

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this study, a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The DREAM is a multi-chainmore » method and uses differential evolution technique for chain movement, allowing it to be efficiently applied to high-dimensional problems, and can reliably estimate heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions that are difficult for single-chain schemes using a Gaussian proposal distribution. The results were evaluated against the popular Adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. DREAM indicated that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identified one mode. The calibration of DREAM resulted in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the AM. DREAM provides means for a good exploration of the posterior distributions of model parameters. Lastly, it reduces the risk of false convergence to a local optimum and potentially improves the predictive performance of the calibrated model.« less

Dynamic bulk and shear moduli due to grain-scale local fluid flow in fluid-saturated cracked poroelastic rocks: Theoretical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yongjia; Hu, Hengshan; Rudnicki, John W.

2016-07-01

Grain-scale local fluid flow is an important loss mechanism for attenuating waves in cracked fluid-saturated poroelastic rocks. In this study, a dynamic elastic modulus model is developed to quantify local flow effect on wave attenuation and velocity dispersion in porous isotropic rocks. The Eshelby transform technique, inclusion-based effective medium model (the Mori-Tanaka scheme), fluid dynamics and mass conservation principle are combined to analyze pore-fluid pressure relaxation and its influences on overall elastic properties. The derivation gives fully analytic, frequency-dependent effective bulk and shear moduli of a fluid-saturated porous rock. It is shown that the derived bulk and shear moduli rigorously satisfy the Biot-Gassmann relationship of poroelasticity in the low-frequency limit, while they are consistent with isolated-pore effective medium theory in the high-frequency limit. In particular, a simplified model is proposed to quantify the squirt-flow dispersion for frequencies lower than stiff-pore relaxation frequency. The main advantage of the proposed model over previous models is its ability to predict the dispersion due to squirt flow between pores and cracks with distributed aspect ratio instead of flow in a simply conceptual double-porosity structure. Independent input parameters include pore aspect ratio distribution, fluid bulk modulus and viscosity, and bulk and shear moduli of the solid grain. Physical assumptions made in this model include (1) pores are inter-connected and (2) crack thickness is smaller than the viscous skin depth. This study is restricted to linear elastic, well-consolidated granular rocks.

The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario, whereas two of four species would be severely restricted in range under moderatehigh emissions. Discrepancies in the two emission scenarios probably relate to the exclusion of behavioural adaptations from species-distribution models. 6.These model predictions illustrate possible impacts of climate change on narrow-range endemic crayfish populations. The predictions do not account for biotic interactions, migration, local habitat conditions or species adaptation. However, we identified the constraining landscape features acting on these populations that provide a framework for addressing habitat needs at a fine scale and developing targeted and systematic monitoring programmes.

Adaptive invasive species distribution models: A framework for modeling incipient invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Corral, Lucia; Fricke, Kent A.

2015-01-01

The utilization of species distribution model(s) (SDM) for approximating, explaining, and predicting changes in species’ geographic locations is increasingly promoted for proactive ecological management. Although frameworks for modeling non-invasive species distributions are relatively well developed, their counterparts for invasive species—which may not be at equilibrium within recipient environments and often exhibit rapid transformations—are lacking. Additionally, adaptive ecological management strategies address the causes and effects of biological invasions and other complex issues in social-ecological systems. We conducted a review of biological invasions, species distribution models, and adaptive practices in ecological management, and developed a framework for adaptive, niche-based, invasive species distribution model (iSDM) development and utilization. This iterative, 10-step framework promotes consistency and transparency in iSDM development, allows for changes in invasive drivers and filters, integrates mechanistic and correlative modeling techniques, balances the avoidance of type 1 and type 2 errors in predictions, encourages the linking of monitoring and management actions, and facilitates incremental improvements in models and management across space, time, and institutional boundaries. These improvements are useful for advancing coordinated invasive species modeling, management and monitoring from local scales to the regional, continental and global scales at which biological invasions occur and harm native ecosystems and economies, as well as for anticipating and responding to biological invasions under continuing global change.

A data centred method to estimate and map changes in the full distribution of daily surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Characterizing how our climate is changing includes local information which can inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles or thresholds in distributions of variables such as daily surface temperature. Here we focus on these local changes and on a model independent method to transform daily observations into patterns of local climate change. Our method [1] is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of the distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. For temperature, changes in the distribution itself can yield robust results [2]. We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations [3]. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data [4] timeseries of local daily surface temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. [1] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, On estimating long term local climate trends, Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 (2013) [2] Stainforth, D. A. S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, ERL 8, 034031 (2013) [3] Chapman, S. C., Stainforth, D. A., Watkins, N. W. Limits to the quantification of local climate change, ERL 10, 094018 (2015) [4] Haylock M. R. et al ., A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, (2008)

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions.

PubMed

Dybiec, Bartłomiej; Kleczkowski, Adam; Gilligan, Christopher A

2009-10-06

We have studied the spread of epidemics characterized by a mixture of local and non-local interactions. The infection spreads on a two-dimensional lattice with the fixed nearest neighbour connections. In addition, long-range dynamical links are formed by moving agents (vectors). Vectors perform random walks, with step length distributed according to a thick-tail distribution. Two distributions are considered in this paper, an alpha-stable distribution describing self-similar vector movement, yet characterized by an infinite variance and an exponential power characterized by a large but finite variance. Such long-range interactions are hard to track and make control of epidemics very difficult. We also allowed for cryptic infection, whereby an infected individual on the lattice can be infectious prior to showing any symptoms of infection or disease. To account for such cryptic spread, we considered a control strategy in which not only detected, i.e. symptomatic, individuals but also all individuals within a certain control neighbourhood are treated upon the detection of disease. We show that it is possible to eradicate the disease by using such purely local control measures, even in the presence of long-range jumps. In particular, we show that the success of local control and the choice of the optimal strategy depend in a non-trivial way on the dispersal patterns of the vectors. By characterizing these patterns using the stability index of the alpha-stable distribution to change the power-law behaviour or the exponent characterizing the decay of an exponential power distribution, we show that infection can be successfully contained using relatively small control neighbourhoods for two limiting cases for long-distance dispersal and for vectors that are much more limited in their dispersal range.

A Piecewise Local Partial Least Squares (PLS) Method for the Quantitative Analysis of Plutonium Nitrate Solutions

DOE PAGES

Lascola, Robert; O'Rourke, Patrick E.; Kyser, Edward A.

2017-10-05

Here, we have developed a piecewise local (PL) partial least squares (PLS) analysis method for total plutonium measurements by absorption spectroscopy in nitric acid-based nuclear material processing streams. Instead of using a single PLS model that covers all expected solution conditions, the method selects one of several local models based on an assessment of solution absorbance, acidity, and Pu oxidation state distribution. The local models match the global model for accuracy against the calibration set, but were observed in several instances to be more robust to variations associated with measurements in the process. The improvements are attributed to the relativemore » parsimony of the local models. Not all of the sources of spectral variation are uniformly present at each part of the calibration range. Thus, the global model is locally overfitting and susceptible to increased variance when presented with new samples. A second set of models quantifies the relative concentrations of Pu(III), (IV), and (VI). Standards containing a mixture of these species were not at equilibrium due to a disproportionation reaction. Therefore, a separate principal component analysis is used to estimate of the concentrations of the individual oxidation states in these standards in the absence of independent confirmatory analysis. The PL analysis approach is generalizable to other systems where the analysis of chemically complicated systems can be aided by rational division of the overall range of solution conditions into simpler sub-regions.« less

A Piecewise Local Partial Least Squares (PLS) Method for the Quantitative Analysis of Plutonium Nitrate Solutions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lascola, Robert; O'Rourke, Patrick E.; Kyser, Edward A.

Here, we have developed a piecewise local (PL) partial least squares (PLS) analysis method for total plutonium measurements by absorption spectroscopy in nitric acid-based nuclear material processing streams. Instead of using a single PLS model that covers all expected solution conditions, the method selects one of several local models based on an assessment of solution absorbance, acidity, and Pu oxidation state distribution. The local models match the global model for accuracy against the calibration set, but were observed in several instances to be more robust to variations associated with measurements in the process. The improvements are attributed to the relativemore » parsimony of the local models. Not all of the sources of spectral variation are uniformly present at each part of the calibration range. Thus, the global model is locally overfitting and susceptible to increased variance when presented with new samples. A second set of models quantifies the relative concentrations of Pu(III), (IV), and (VI). Standards containing a mixture of these species were not at equilibrium due to a disproportionation reaction. Therefore, a separate principal component analysis is used to estimate of the concentrations of the individual oxidation states in these standards in the absence of independent confirmatory analysis. The PL analysis approach is generalizable to other systems where the analysis of chemically complicated systems can be aided by rational division of the overall range of solution conditions into simpler sub-regions.« less

An extension of the local momentum theory to a distorted wake model of a hovering rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawachi, K.

1981-01-01

The local momentum theory is based on the instantaneous balance between the fluid momentum and the blade elemental lift at a local station in the rotor rotational plane. Therefore, the theory has the capability of evaluating time wise variations of air loading and induced velocity distributions along a helicopter blade span. Unlike a complex vortex theory, this theory was developed to analyze the instantaneous induced velocity distribution effectively. The boundaries of this theory and a computer program using this theory are discussed. A concept introduced into the theory is the effect of the rotor wake contraction in hovering flight. A comparison of this extended local momentum theory with a prescribed wake vortex theory is also presented. The results indicate that the extended local momentum theory has the capability of achieving a level of accuracy similar to that of the prescribed wake vortex theory over wide range variations of rotor geometrical parameters. It is also shown that the analytical results obtained using either theory are in reasonable agreement with experimental data.

SU-G-IeP4-14: Prostate Brachytherapy Activity Measurement and Source Localization by Using a Dual Photon Emission Computed Tomography System: A Feasibility Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, C; Lin, H; Chuang, K

2016-06-15

Purpose: To monitor the activity distribution and needle position during and after implantation in operating rooms. Methods: Simulation studies were conducted to assess the feasibility of measurement activity distribution and seed localization using the DuPECT system. The system consists of a LaBr3-based probe and planar detection heads, a collimation system, and a coincidence circuit. The two heads can be manipulated independently. Simplified Yb-169 brachytherapy seeds were used. A water-filled cylindrical phantom with a 40-mm diameter and 40-mm length was used to model a simplified prostate of the Asian man. Two simplified seeds were placed at a radial distance of 10more » mm and tangential distance of 10 mm from the center of the phantom. The probe head was arranged perpendicular to the planar head. Results of various imaging durations were analyzed and the accuracy of the seed localization was assessed by calculating the centroid of the seed. Results: The reconstructed images indicate that the DuPECT can measure the activity distribution and locate the seeds dwelt in different positions intraoperatively. The calculated centroid on average turned out to be accurate within the pixel size of 0.5 mm. The two sources were identified when the duration is longer than 15 s. The sensitivity measured in water was merely 0.07 cps/MBq. Conclusion: Preliminary results show that the measurement of the activity distribution and seed localization are feasible using the DuPECT system intraoperatively. It indicates the DuPECT system has potential to be an approach for dose-distribution-validation. The efficacy of acvtivity distribution measurement and source localization using the DuPECT system will evaluated in more realistic phantom studies (e.g., various attenuation materials and greater number of seeds) in the future investigation.« less

Multidrug efflux transporter activity in sea urchin embryos:Does localization provide a diffusive advantage?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xianfeng; Setayeshgar, Sima; Cole, Bryan; Hamdoun, Amro; Epel, David

2008-03-01

Experiments have shown upregulation of multidrug efflux transporter activity approximately 30 min after fertilization in the sea urchin embryo [1]. These ATP-hydrolyzing transporter proteins pump moderately hydrophobic molecules out of the cell and represent the cell's first line of defense againstexogenous toxins. It has also been shown that transporters are moved in vesicles along microfilaments and localized to tips of microvilli prior to activation. We have constructed a geometrically realistic model of the embryo, including microvilli, to explore the functional role of this localization in the efficient elimination of toxins from the standpoint of diffusion. We compute diffusion of toxins in extracellular, membrane and intracellular spaces coupled with transporter activity, using experimentally derived values for physical parameters. For transporters uniformly distributed along microvilli and tip-localized transporters we compare regions in parameter space where each distribution provides diffusive advantage, and comment on the physically expected conditions. [1] A. M. Hamdoun, G. N. Cherr, T. A. Roepke and D. Epel, Developmental Biology 276 452 (2004).

Crack surface roughness in three-dimensional random fuse networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nukala, Phani Kumar V. V.; Zapperi, Stefano; Šimunović, Srđan

2006-08-01

Using large system sizes with extensive statistical sampling, we analyze the scaling properties of crack roughness and damage profiles in the three-dimensional random fuse model. The analysis of damage profiles indicates that damage accumulates in a diffusive manner up to the peak load, and localization sets in abruptly at the peak load, starting from a uniform damage landscape. The global crack width scales as Wtilde L0.5 and is consistent with the scaling of localization length ξ˜L0.5 used in the data collapse of damage profiles in the postpeak regime. This consistency between the global crack roughness exponent and the postpeak damage profile localization length supports the idea that the postpeak damage profile is predominantly due to the localization produced by the catastrophic failure, which at the same time results in the formation of the final crack. Finally, the crack width distributions can be collapsed for different system sizes and follow a log-normal distribution.

A Web-based Distributed Voluntary Computing Platform for Large Scale Hydrological Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Agliamzanov, R.

2014-12-01

Distributed volunteer computing can enable researchers and scientist to form large parallel computing environments to utilize the computing power of the millions of computers on the Internet, and use them towards running large scale environmental simulations and models to serve the common good of local communities and the world. Recent developments in web technologies and standards allow client-side scripting languages to run at speeds close to native application, and utilize the power of Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Using a client-side scripting language like JavaScript, we have developed an open distributed computing framework that makes it easy for researchers to write their own hydrologic models, and run them on volunteer computers. Users will easily enable their websites for visitors to volunteer sharing their computer resources to contribute running advanced hydrological models and simulations. Using a web-based system allows users to start volunteering their computational resources within seconds without installing any software. The framework distributes the model simulation to thousands of nodes in small spatial and computational sizes. A relational database system is utilized for managing data connections and queue management for the distributed computing nodes. In this paper, we present a web-based distributed volunteer computing platform to enable large scale hydrological simulations and model runs in an open and integrated environment.

The effects of prey patchiness, predator aggregation, and mutual interference on the functional response of Phytoseiulus persimilis feeding on Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Phytoseiidae, Tetranychidae).

PubMed

Nachman, Gösta

2006-01-01

The spatial distributions of two-spotted spider mites Tetranychus urticae and their natural enemy, the phytoseiid predator Phytoseiulus persimilis, were studied on six full-grown cucumber plants. Both mite species were very patchily distributed and P. persimilis tended to aggregate on leaves with abundant prey. The effects of non-homogenous distributions and degree of spatial overlap between prey and predators on the per capita predation rate were studied by means of a stage-specific predation model that averages the predation rates over all the local populations inhabiting the individual leaves. The empirical predation rates were compared with predictions assuming random predator search and/or an even distribution of prey. The analysis clearly shows that the ability of the predators to search non-randomly increases their predation rate. On the other hand, the prey may gain if it adopts a more even distribution when its density is low and a more patchy distribution when density increases. Mutual interference between searching predators reduces the predation rate, but the effect is negligible. The stage-specific functional response model was compared with two simpler models without explicit stage structure. Both unstructured models yielded predictions that were quite similar to those of the stage-structured model.

Millisecond Microwave Spikes: Statistical Study and Application for Plasma Diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozhansky, I. V.; Fleishman, G. D.; Huang, G.-L.

2008-07-01

We analyze a dense cluster of solar radio spikes registered at 4.5-6 GHz by the Purple Mountain Observatory spectrometer (Nanjing, China), operating in the 4.5-7.5 GHz range with 5 ms temporal resolution. To handle the data from the spectrometer, we developed a new technique that uses a nonlinear multi-Gaussian spectral fit based on χ2 criteria to extract individual spikes from the originally recorded spectra. Applying this method to the experimental raw data, we eventually identified about 3000 spikes for this event, which allows us to make a detailed statistical analysis. Various statistical characteristics of the spikes have been evaluated, including the intensity distributions, the spectral bandwidth distributions, and the distribution of the spike mean frequencies. The most striking finding of this analysis is the distributions of the spike bandwidth, which are remarkably asymmetric. To reveal the underlaying microphysics, we explore the local-trap model with the renormalized theory of spectral profiles of the electron cyclotron maser (ECM) emission peak in a source with random magnetic irregularities. The distribution of the solar spike relative bandwidths calculated within the local-trap model represents an excellent fit to the experimental data. Accordingly, the developed technique may offer a new tool with which to study very low levels of magnetic turbulence in the spike sources, when the ECM mechanism of the spike cluster is confirmed.

Harvesting implementation for the GI-cat distributed catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boldrini, Enrico; Papeschi, Fabrizio; Bigagli, Lorenzo; Mazzetti, Paolo

2010-05-01

GI-cat framework implements a distributed catalog service supporting different international standards and interoperability arrangements in use by the geoscientific community. The distribution functionality in conjunction with the mediation functionality allows to seamlessly query remote heterogeneous data sources, including OGC Web Services - e.e. OGC CSW, WCS, WFS and WMS, community standards such as UNIDATA THREDDS/OPeNDAP, SeaDataNet CDI (Common Data Index), GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility) services and OpenSearch engines. In the GI-cat modular architecture a distributor component carry out the distribution functionality by query delegation to the mediator components (one for each different data source). Each of these mediator components is able to query a specific data source and convert back the results by mapping of the foreign data model to the GI-cat internal one, based on ISO 19139. In order to cope with deployment scenarios in which local data is expected, an harvesting approach has been experimented. The new strategy comes in addition to the consolidated distributed approach, allowing the user to switch between a remote and a local search at will for each federated resource; this extends GI-cat configuration possibilities. The harvesting strategy is designed in GI-cat by the use at the core of a local cache component, implemented as a native XML database and based on eXist. The different heterogeneous sources are queried for the bulk of available data; this data is then injected into the cache component after being converted to the GI-cat data model. The query and conversion steps are performed by the mediator components that were are part of the GI-cat framework. Afterward each new query can be exercised against local data that have been stored in the cache component. Considering both advantages and shortcomings that affect harvesting and query distribution approaches, it comes out that a user driven tuning is required to take the best of them. This is often related to the specific user scenarios to be implemented. GI-cat proved to be a flexible framework to address user need. The GI-cat configurator tool was updated to make such a tuning possible: each data source can be configured to enable either harvesting or query distribution approaches; in the former case an appropriate harvesting interval can be set.

Local and landscape associations between wintering dabbling ducks and wetland complexes in Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, Aaron T.; Kaminski, Richard M.; Reinecke, Kenneth J.; Dinsmore, Stephen J.

2012-01-01

Landscape features influence distribution of waterbirds throughout their annual cycle. A conceptual model, the wetland habitat complex, may be useful in conservation of wetland habitats for dabbling ducks (Anatini). The foundation of this conceptual model is that ducks seek complexes of wetlands containing diverse resources to meet dynamic physiological needs. We included flooded croplands, wetlands and ponds, public-land waterfowl sanctuary, and diversity of habitats as key components of wetland habitat complexes and compared their relative influence at two spatial scales (i.e., local, 0.25-km radius; landscape, 4-km) on dabbling ducks wintering in western Mississippi, USA during winters 2002–2004. Distribution of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) groups was positively associated with flooded cropland at local and landscape scales. Models representing flooded croplands at the landscape scale best explained occurrence of other dabbling ducks. Habitat complexity measured at both scales best explained group size of other dabbling ducks. Flooded croplands likely provided food that had decreased in availability due to conversion of wetlands to agriculture. Wetland complexes at landscape scales were more attractive to wintering ducks than single or structurally simple wetlands. Conservation of wetland complexes at large spatial scales (≥5,000 ha) on public and private lands will require coordination among multiple stakeholders.

Diffuse Galactic Continuum Gamma Rays. A Model Compatible with EGRET Data and Cosmic-ray Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strong, Andrew W.; Moskalenko, Igor V.; Reimer, Olaf

2004-01-01

We present a study of the compatibility of some current models of the diffuse Galactic continuum gamma-rays with EGRET data. A set of regions sampling the whole sky is chosen to provide a comprehensive range of tests. The range of EGRET data used is extended to 100 GeV. The models are computed with our GALPROP cosmic-ray propagation and gamma-ray production code. We confirm that the "conventional model" based on the locally observed electron and nucleon spectra is inadequate, for all sky regions. A conventional model plus hard sources in the inner Galaxy is also inadequate, since this cannot explain the GeV excess away from the Galactic plane. Models with a hard electron injection spectrum are inconsistent with the local spectrum even considering the expected fluctuations; they are also inconsistent with the EGRET data above 10 GeV. We present a new model which fits the spectrum in all sky regions adequately. Secondary antiproton data were used to fix the Galactic average proton spectrum, while the electron spectrum is adjusted using the spectrum of diffuse emission it- self. The derived electron and proton spectra are compatible with those measured locally considering fluctuations due to energy losses, propagation, or possibly de- tails of Galactic structure. This model requires a much less dramatic variation in the electron spectrum than models with a hard electron injection spectrum, and moreover it fits the y-ray spectrum better and to the highest EGRET energies. It gives a good representation of the latitude distribution of the y-ray emission from the plane to the poles, and of the longitude distribution. We show that secondary positrons and electrons make an essential contribution to Galactic diffuse y-ray emission.

Tests of species-specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean-climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection.

PubMed

Bemmels, Jordan B; Title, Pascal O; Ortego, Joaquín; Knowles, L Lacey

2016-10-01

Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species-specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade-offs in functional traits, and local-scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade-off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Local Crystal Structure of Antiferroelectric Bi2Mn4/3Ni2/3O6 in Commensurate and Incommensurate Phases Described by Pair Distribution Function (PDF) and Reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) Modeling.

PubMed

Szczecinski, Robert J; Chong, Samantha Y; Chater, Philip A; Hughes, Helen; Tucker, Matthew G; Claridge, John B; Rosseinsky, Matthew J

2014-04-08

The functional properties of materials can arise from local structural features that are not well determined or described by crystallographic methods based on long-range average structural models. The room temperature (RT) structure of the Bi perovskite Bi 2 Mn 4/3 Ni 2/3 O 6 has previously been modeled as a locally polar structure where polarization is suppressed by a long-range incommensurate antiferroelectric modulation. In this study we investigate the short-range local structure of Bi 2 Mn 4/3 Ni 2/3 O 6 , determined through reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) modeling of neutron total scattering data, and compare the results with the long-range incommensurate structure description. While the incommensurate structure has equivalent B site environments for Mn and Ni, the local structure displays a significantly Jahn-Teller distorted environment for Mn 3+ . The local structure displays the rock-salt-type Mn/Ni ordering of the related Bi 2 MnNiO 6 high pressure phase, as opposed to Mn/Ni clustering observed in the long-range average incommensurate model. RMC modeling reveals short-range ferroelectric correlations between Bi 3+ cations, giving rise to polar regions that are quantified for the first time as existing within a distance of approximately 12 Å. These local correlations persist in the commensurate high temperature (HT) phase, where the long-range average structure is nonpolar. The local structure thus provides information about cation ordering and B site structural flexibility that may stabilize Bi 3+ on the A site of the perovskite structure and reveals the extent of the local polar regions created by this cation.

Modeling and experimental methods to predict oxygen distribution in bone defects following cell transplantation.

PubMed

Heylman, Christopher M; Santoso, Sharon; Krebs, Melissa D; Saidel, Gerald M; Alsberg, Eben; Muschler, George F

2014-04-01

We have developed a mathematical model that allows simulation of oxygen distribution in a bone defect as a tool to explore the likely effects of local changes in cell concentration, defect size or geometry, local oxygen delivery with oxygen-generating biomaterials (OGBs), and changes in the rate of oxygen consumption by cells within a defect. Experimental data for the oxygen release rate from an OGB and the oxygen consumption rate of a transplanted cell population are incorporated into the model. With these data, model simulations allow prediction of spatiotemporal oxygen concentration within a given defect and the sensitivity of oxygen tension to changes in critical variables. This information may help to minimize the number of experiments in animal models that determine the optimal combinations of cells, scaffolds, and OGBs in the design of current and future bone regeneration strategies. Bone marrow-derived nucleated cell data suggest that oxygen consumption is dependent on oxygen concentration. OGB oxygen release is shown to be a time-dependent function that must be measured for accurate simulation. Simulations quantify the dependency of oxygen gradients in an avascular defect on cell concentration, cell oxygen consumption rate, OGB oxygen generation rate, and OGB geometry.

Mixing-controlled reactive transport on travel times in heterogeneous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, J.; Cirpka, O.

2008-05-01

Modeling mixing-controlled reactive transport using traditional spatial discretization of the domain requires identifying the spatial distributions of hydraulic and reactive parameters including mixing-related quantities such as dispersivities and kinetic mass-transfer coefficients. In most applications, breakthrough curves of conservative and reactive compounds are measured at only a few locations and models are calibrated by matching these breakthrough curves, which is an ill posed inverse problem. By contrast, travel-time based transport models avoid costly aquifer characterization. By considering breakthrough curves measured on different scales, one can distinguish between mixing, which is a prerequisite for reactions, and spreading, which per se does not foster reactions. In the travel-time based framework, the breakthrough curve of a solute crossing an observation plane, or ending in a well, is interpreted as the weighted average of concentrations in an ensemble of non-interacting streamtubes, each of which is characterized by a distinct travel-time value. Mixing is described by longitudinal dispersion and/or kinetic mass transfer along individual streamtubes, whereas spreading is characterized by the distribution of travel times which also determines the weights associated to each stream tube. Key issues in using the travel-time based framework include the description of mixing mechanisms and the estimation of the travel-time distribution. In this work, we account for both apparent longitudinal dispersion and kinetic mass transfer as mixing mechanisms, thus generalizing the stochastic-convective model with or without inter-phase mass transfer and the advective-dispersive streamtube model. We present a nonparametric approach of determining the travel-time distribution, given a breakthrough curve integrated over an observation plane and estimated mixing parameters. The latter approach is superior to fitting parametric models in cases where the true travel-time distribution exhibits multiple peaks or long tails. It is demonstrated that there is freedom for the combinations of mixing parameters and travel-time distributions to fit conservative breakthrough curves and describe the tailing. Reactive transport cases with a bimolecular instantaneous irreversible reaction and a dual Michaelis-Menten problem demonstrate that the mixing introduced by local dispersion and mass transfer may be described by apparent mean mass transfer with coefficients evaluated by local breakthrough curves.

More Effective Distributed ML via a Stale Synchronous Parallel Parameter Server

PubMed Central

Ho, Qirong; Cipar, James; Cui, Henggang; Kim, Jin Kyu; Lee, Seunghak; Gibbons, Phillip B.; Gibson, Garth A.; Ganger, Gregory R.; Xing, Eric P.

2014-01-01

We propose a parameter server system for distributed ML, which follows a Stale Synchronous Parallel (SSP) model of computation that maximizes the time computational workers spend doing useful work on ML algorithms, while still providing correctness guarantees. The parameter server provides an easy-to-use shared interface for read/write access to an ML model’s values (parameters and variables), and the SSP model allows distributed workers to read older, stale versions of these values from a local cache, instead of waiting to get them from a central storage. This significantly increases the proportion of time workers spend computing, as opposed to waiting. Furthermore, the SSP model ensures ML algorithm correctness by limiting the maximum age of the stale values. We provide a proof of correctness under SSP, as well as empirical results demonstrating that the SSP model achieves faster algorithm convergence on several different ML problems, compared to fully-synchronous and asynchronous schemes. PMID:25400488

Emergency response to an anthrax attack

PubMed Central

Wein, Lawrence M.; Craft, David L.; Kaplan, Edward H.

2003-01-01

We developed a mathematical model to compare various emergency responses in the event of an airborne anthrax attack. The system consists of an atmospheric dispersion model, an age-dependent dose–response model, a disease progression model, and a set of spatially distributed two-stage queueing systems consisting of antibiotic distribution and hospital care. Our results underscore the need for the extremely aggressive and timely use of oral antibiotics by all asymptomatics in the exposure region, distributed either preattack or by nonprofessionals postattack, and the creation of surge capacity for supportive hospital care via expanded training of nonemergency care workers at the local level and the use of federal and military resources and nationwide medical volunteers. The use of prioritization (based on disease stage and/or age) at both queues, and the development and deployment of modestly rapid and sensitive biosensors, while helpful, produce only second-order improvements. PMID:12651951

A simple model of the effect of ocean ventilation on ocean heat uptake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.; Urban, Nathan Mark

Presentation includes slides on Earth System Models vs. Simple Climate Models; A Popular SCM: Energy Balance Model of Anomalies; On calibrating against one ESM experiment, the SCM correctly captures that ESM's surface warming response with other forcings; Multi-Model Analysis: Multiple ESMs, Single SCM; Posterior Distributions of ECS; However In Excess of 90% of TOA Energy Imbalance is Sequestered in the World Oceans; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Including TOA Rad. Imbalance and Ocean Heat in Calibration Improves Repr., but Significant Errors Persist; Improved Vertical Resolution Does Not Fix Problem; A Seriesmore » of Expts. Confirms That Anomaly-Diffusing Models Cannot Properly Represent Ocean Heat Uptake; Physics of the Thermocline; Outcropping Isopycnals and Horizontally-Averaged Layers; Local interactions between outcropping isopycnals leads to non-local interactions between horizontally-averaged layers; Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat are Well Represented With Just 4 Layers; A Series of Expts. Confirms That When Non-Local Interactions are Allowed, the SCMs Can Represent Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat Uptake; and Summary and Conclusions.« less

Evaluation of reduced point charge models of proteins through Molecular Dynamics simulations: application to the Vps27 UIM-1-Ubiquitin complex.

PubMed

Leherte, Laurence; Vercauteren, Daniel P

2014-02-01

Reduced point charge models of amino acids are designed, (i) from local extrema positions in charge density distribution functions built from the Poisson equation applied to smoothed molecular electrostatic potential (MEP) functions, and (ii) from local maxima positions in promolecular electron density distribution functions. Corresponding charge values are fitted versus all-atom Amber99 MEPs. To easily generate reduced point charge models for protein structures, libraries of amino acid templates are built. The program GROMACS is used to generate stable Molecular Dynamics trajectories of an Ubiquitin-ligand complex (PDB: 1Q0W), under various implementation schemes, solvation, and temperature conditions. Point charges that are not located on atoms are considered as virtual sites with a nul mass and radius. The results illustrate how the intra- and inter-molecular H-bond interactions are affected by the degree of reduction of the point charge models and give directions for their implementation; a special attention to the atoms selected to locate the virtual sites and to the Coulomb-14 interactions is needed. Results obtained at various temperatures suggest that the use of reduced point charge models allows to probe local potential hyper-surface minima that are similar to the all-atom ones, but are characterized by lower energy barriers. It enables to generate various conformations of the protein complex more rapidly than the all-atom point charge representation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiscale Modeling of Antibody-Drug Conjugates: Connecting Tissue and Cellular Distribution to Whole Animal Pharmacokinetics and Potential Implications for Efficacy.

PubMed

Cilliers, Cornelius; Guo, Hans; Liao, Jianshan; Christodolu, Nikolas; Thurber, Greg M

2016-09-01

Antibody-drug conjugates exhibit complex pharmacokinetics due to their combination of macromolecular and small molecule properties. These issues range from systemic concerns, such as deconjugation of the small molecule drug during the long antibody circulation time or rapid clearance from nonspecific interactions, to local tumor tissue heterogeneity, cell bystander effects, and endosomal escape. Mathematical models can be used to study the impact of these processes on overall distribution in an efficient manner, and several types of models have been used to analyze varying aspects of antibody distribution including physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models and tissue-level simulations. However, these processes are quantitative in nature and cannot be handled qualitatively in isolation. For example, free antibody from deconjugation of the small molecule will impact the distribution of conjugated antibodies within the tumor. To incorporate these effects into a unified framework, we have coupled the systemic and organ-level distribution of a PBPK model with the tissue-level detail of a distributed parameter tumor model. We used this mathematical model to analyze new experimental results on the distribution of the clinical antibody-drug conjugate Kadcyla in HER2-positive mouse xenografts. This model is able to capture the impact of the drug-antibody ratio (DAR) on tumor penetration, the net result of drug deconjugation, and the effect of using unconjugated antibody to drive ADC penetration deeper into the tumor tissue. This modeling approach will provide quantitative and mechanistic support to experimental studies trying to parse the impact of multiple mechanisms of action for these complex drugs.

Multiscale Modeling of Antibody Drug Conjugates: Connecting tissue and cellular distribution to whole animal pharmacokinetics and potential implications for efficacy

PubMed Central

Cilliers, Cornelius; Guo, Hans; Liao, Jianshan; Christodolu, Nikolas; Thurber, Greg M.

2016-01-01

Antibody drug conjugates exhibit complex pharmacokinetics due to their combination of macromolecular and small molecule properties. These issues range from systemic concerns, such as deconjugation of the small molecule drug during the long antibody circulation time or rapid clearance from non-specific interactions, to local tumor tissue heterogeneity, cell bystander effects, and endosomal escape. Mathematical models can be used to study the impact of these processes on overall distribution in an efficient manner, and several types of models have been used to analyze varying aspects of antibody distribution including physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models and tissue-level simulations. However, these processes are quantitative in nature and cannot be handled qualitatively in isolation. For example, free antibody from deconjugation of the small molecule will impact the distribution of conjugated antibodies within the tumor. To incorporate these effects into a unified framework, we have coupled the systemic and organ-level distribution of a PBPK model with the tissue-level detail of a distributed parameter tumor model. We used this mathematical model to analyze new experimental results on the distribution of the clinical antibody drug conjugate Kadcyla in HER2 positive mouse xenografts. This model is able to capture the impact of the drug antibody ratio (DAR) on tumor penetration, the net result of drug deconjugation, and the effect of using unconjugated antibody to drive ADC penetration deeper into the tumor tissue. This modeling approach will provide quantitative and mechanistic support to experimental studies trying to parse the impact of multiple mechanisms of action for these complex drugs. PMID:27287046

Population patterns in World’s administrative units

PubMed Central

Miramontes, Pedro; Cocho, Germinal

2017-01-01

Whereas there has been an extended discussion concerning city population distribution, little has been said about that of administrative divisions. In this work, we investigate the population distribution of second-level administrative units of 150 countries and territories and propose the discrete generalized beta distribution (DGBD) rank-size function to describe the data. After testing the balance between the goodness of fit and number of parameters of this function compared with a power law, which is the most common model for city population, the DGBD is a good statistical model for 96% of our datasets and preferred over a power law in almost every case. Moreover, the DGBD is preferred over a power law for fitting country population data, which can be seen as the zeroth-level administrative unit. We present a computational toy model to simulate the formation of administrative divisions in one dimension and give numerical evidence that the DGBD arises from a particular case of this model. This model, along with the fitting of the DGBD, proves adequate in reproducing and describing local unit evolution and its effect on the population distribution. PMID:28791153

Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan-Karakoram region using different methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, H.; Machguth, H.; Huss, M.; Huggel, C.; Bajracharya, S.; Bolch, T.; Kulkarni, A.; Linsbauer, A.; Salzmann, N.; Stoffel, M.

2014-12-01

Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. In this study, different existing methodologies are used to estimate the ice reserves: three area-volume relations, one slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a recent, detailed, and complete glacier inventory of the HK region, spanning over the period 2000-2010 and revealing an ice coverage of 40 775 km2. An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the observed glacier area and important model parameters on the resulting total ice volume. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 to 4737 km3, depending on the approach. This range is lower than most previous estimates. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses. However, total volume estimates from area-related relations are larger than those from other approaches. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation.

Distributed rewiring model for complex networking: The effect of local rewiring rules on final structural properties.

PubMed

López Chavira, Magali Alexander; Marcelín-Jiménez, Ricardo

2017-01-01

The study of complex networks has become an important subject over the last decades. It has been shown that these structures have special features, such as their diameter, or their average path length, which in turn are the explanation of some functional properties in a system such as its fault tolerance, its fragility before attacks, or the ability to support routing procedures. In the present work, we study some of the forces that help a network to evolve to the point where structural properties are settled. Although our work is mainly focused on the possibility of applying our ideas to Information and Communication Technologies systems, we consider that our results may contribute to understanding different scenarios where complex networks have become an important modeling tool. Using a discrete event simulator, we get each node to discover the shortcuts that may connect it with regions away from its local environment. Based on this partial knowledge, each node can rewire some of its links, which allows modifying the topology of the entire underlying graph to achieve new structural properties. We proposed a distributed rewiring model that creates networks with features similar to those found in complex networks. Although each node acts in a distributed way and seeking to reduce only the trajectories of its packets, we observed a decrease of diameter and an increase in clustering coefficient in the global structure compared to the initial graph. Furthermore, we can find different final structures depending on slight changes in the local rewiring rules.

Analysis of Point Based Image Registration Errors With Applications in Single Molecule Microscopy

PubMed Central

Cohen, E. A. K.; Ober, R. J.

2014-01-01

We present an asymptotic treatment of errors involved in point-based image registration where control point (CP) localization is subject to heteroscedastic noise; a suitable model for image registration in fluorescence microscopy. Assuming an affine transform, CPs are used to solve a multivariate regression problem. With measurement errors existing for both sets of CPs this is an errors-in-variable problem and linear least squares is inappropriate; the correct method being generalized least squares. To allow for point dependent errors the equivalence of a generalized maximum likelihood and heteroscedastic generalized least squares model is achieved allowing previously published asymptotic results to be extended to image registration. For a particularly useful model of heteroscedastic noise where covariance matrices are scalar multiples of a known matrix (including the case where covariance matrices are multiples of the identity) we provide closed form solutions to estimators and derive their distribution. We consider the target registration error (TRE) and define a new measure called the localization registration error (LRE) believed to be useful, especially in microscopy registration experiments. Assuming Gaussianity of the CP localization errors, it is shown that the asymptotic distribution for the TRE and LRE are themselves Gaussian and the parameterized distributions are derived. Results are successfully applied to registration in single molecule microscopy to derive the key dependence of the TRE and LRE variance on the number of CPs and their associated photon counts. Simulations show asymptotic results are robust for low CP numbers and non-Gaussianity. The method presented here is shown to outperform GLS on real imaging data. PMID:24634573

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

La Russa, D

Purpose: The purpose of this project is to develop a robust method of parameter estimation for a Poisson-based TCP model using Bayesian inference. Methods: Bayesian inference was performed using the PyMC3 probabilistic programming framework written in Python. A Poisson-based TCP regression model that accounts for clonogen proliferation was fit to observed rates of local relapse as a function of equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions for a population of 623 stage-I non-small-cell lung cancer patients. The Slice Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was used to sample the posterior distributions, and was initiated using the maximum of the posterior distributionsmore » found by optimization. The calculation of TCP with each sample step required integration over the free parameter α, which was performed using an adaptive 24-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. Convergence was verified via inspection of the trace plot and posterior distribution for each of the fit parameters, as well as with comparisons of the most probable parameter values with their respective maximum likelihood estimates. Results: Posterior distributions for α, the standard deviation of α (σ), the average tumour cell-doubling time (Td), and the repopulation delay time (Tk), were generated assuming α/β = 10 Gy, and a fixed clonogen density of 10{sup 7} cm−{sup 3}. Posterior predictive plots generated from samples from these posterior distributions are in excellent agreement with the observed rates of local relapse used in the Bayesian inference. The most probable values of the model parameters also agree well with maximum likelihood estimates. Conclusion: A robust method of performing Bayesian inference of TCP data using a complex TCP model has been established.« less

Comprehensive analytical model for locally contacted rear surface passivated solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Andreas; Biro, Daniel; Nekarda, Jan; Stumpp, Stefan; Kimmerle, Achim; Mack, Sebastian; Preu, Ralf

2010-12-01

For optimum performance of solar cells featuring a locally contacted rear surface, the metallization fraction as well as the size and distribution of the local contacts are crucial, since Ohmic and recombination losses have to be balanced. In this work we present a set of equations which enable to calculate this trade off without the need of numerical simulations. Our model combines established analytical and empirical equations to predict the energy conversion efficiency of a locally contacted device. For experimental verification, we fabricate devices from float zone silicon wafers of different resistivity using the laser fired contact technology for forming the local rear contacts. The detailed characterization of test structures enables the determination of important physical parameters, such as the surface recombination velocity at the contacted area and the spreading resistance of the contacts. Our analytical model reproduces the experimental results very well and correctly predicts the optimum contact spacing without the use of free fitting parameters. We use our model to estimate the optimum bulk resistivity for locally contacted devices fabricated from conventional Czochralski-grown silicon material. These calculations use literature values for the stable minority carrier lifetime to account for the bulk recombination caused by the formation of boron-oxygen complexes under carrier injection.

Complex scaling behavior in animal foraging patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premachandra, Prabhavi Kaushalya

This dissertation attempts to answer questions from two different areas of biology, ecology and neuroscience, using physics-based techniques. In Section 2, suitability of three competing random walk models is tested to describe the emergent movement patterns of two species of primates. The truncated power law (power law with exponential cut off) is the most suitable random walk model that characterizes the emergent movement patterns of these primates. In Section 3, an agent-based model is used to simulate search behavior in different environments (landscapes) to investigate the impact of the resource landscape on the optimal foraging movement patterns of deterministic foragers. It should be noted that this model goes beyond previous work in that it includes parameters such as spatial memory and satiation, which have received little consideration to date in the field of movement ecology. When the food availability is scarce in a tropical forest-like environment with feeding trees distributed in a clumped fashion and the size of those trees are distributed according to a lognormal distribution, the optimal foraging pattern of a generalist who can consume various and abundant food types indeed reaches the Levy range, and hence, show evidence for Levy-flight-like (power law distribution with exponent between 1 and 3) behavior. Section 4 of the dissertation presents an investigation of phase transition behavior in a network of locally coupled self-sustained oscillators as the system passes through various bursting states. The results suggest that a phase transition does not occur for this locally coupled neuronal network. The data analysis in the dissertation adopts a model selection approach and relies on methods based on information theory and maximum likelihood.

Distributed and Localized Deformation Along the Lebanese Restraining Bend from Geomorphic Observations and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goren, L.; Castelltort, S.; Klinger, Y.

2014-12-01

The Dead Sea Fault System changes its orientation across Lebanon and forms a restraining bend. The oblique deformation along the Lebanese restraining bend is characterized by a complex suite of tectonic structures, among which, the Yammouneh Fault (YF), is believed to be the main strand that relays deformation from the southern section to the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault System. However, uncertainties regarding slip rates and strain partitioning in Lebanon still prevail. Here, we use morphometric analysis together with analytical and numerical models to constrain rates and modes of distributed and localized deformation along the Lebanese restraining bend.The rivers that drain the western flank of Mount Lebanon show a consistent counterclockwise rotation with respect to an expected orogen perpendicular orientation. Moreover, a pattern of divide disequilibrium in between these rivers emerges from an application of the χ mapping technique, which aims at estimating the degree of geometrical and topological disequilibrium in river networks. These geometrical patterns are compatible with simulation results using a landscape evolution model, which imposes a distributed velocity field along a domain that represents the western flank of Mount Lebanon. We further develop an analytical model that relates the river orientation to a set of kinematic parameters that represents a combined pure and simple shear strain field, and we find the parameters that best explain the present orientation of the western Lebanon rivers. Our results indicate that distributed deformation to the west of the YF takes as much as 30% of the relative Arabia-Sinai plate velocity since the late Miocene, and that the average slip rate along the YF during the same time interval has been 3.8-4.4 mm/yr. The theoretical model can further explain the inferred rotation from Paleomagnetic measurements.

Modeling of a historical earthquake in Erzincan, Turkey (Ms 7.8, in 1939) using regional seismological information obtained from a recent event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh; Askan, Aysegul

2018-04-01

Located within a basin structure, at the conjunction of North East Anatolian, North Anatolian and Ovacik Faults, Erzincan city center (Turkey) is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. Combination of the seismotectonic and geological settings of the region has resulted in series of significant seismic activities including the 1939 (Ms 7.8) as well as the 1992 (Mw = 6.6) earthquakes. The devastative 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms. Thus, a limited number of studies exist on that earthquake. However, the 1992 event, despite the sparse local network at that time, has been studied extensively. This study aims to simulate the 1939 Erzincan earthquake using available regional seismic and geological parameters. Despite several uncertainties involved, such an effort to quantitatively model the 1939 earthquake is promising, given the historical reports of extensive damage and fatalities in the area. The results of this study are expressed in terms of anticipated acceleration time histories at certain locations, spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters and felt intensity maps in the region. Simulated motions are first compared against empirical ground motion prediction equations derived with both local and global datasets. Next, anticipated intensity maps of the 1939 earthquake are obtained using local correlations between peak ground motion parameters and felt intensity values. Comparisons of the estimated intensity distributions with the corresponding observed intensities indicate a reasonable modeling of the 1939 earthquake.

Mathematical models and methods of assisting state subsidy distribution at the regional level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondarenko, Yu V.; Azarnova, T. V.; Kashirina, I. L.; Goroshko, I. V.

2018-03-01

One of the most common forms of state support in the world is subsidization. By providing direct financial support to businesses, local authorities get an opportunity to set certain performance targets. Successful achievement of such targets depends not only on the amount of the budgetary allocations, but also on the distribution mechanisms adopted by the regional authorities. Analysis of the existing mechanisms of subsidies distribution in Russian regions shows that in most cases the choice of subsidy calculation formula and its parameters depends on the experts’ subjective opinion. The authors offer a new approach to assisting subsidy distribution at the regional level, which is based on mathematical models and methods, allowing to evaluate the influence of subsidy distribution on the region’s social and economic development. The results of calculations were discussed with the regional administration representatives who confirmed their significance for decision-making in the sphere of state control.

Dirichlet Process Gaussian-mixture model: An application to localizing coalescing binary neutron stars with gravitational-wave observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Pozzo, W.; Berry, C. P. L.; Ghosh, A.; Haines, T. S. F.; Singer, L. P.; Vecchio, A.

2018-06-01

We reconstruct posterior distributions for the position (sky area and distance) of a simulated set of binary neutron-star gravitational-waves signals observed with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We use a Dirichlet Process Gaussian-mixture model, a fully Bayesian non-parametric method that can be used to estimate probability density functions with a flexible set of assumptions. The ability to reliably reconstruct the source position is important for multimessenger astronomy, as recently demonstrated with GW170817. We show that for detector networks comparable to the early operation of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, typical localization volumes are ˜104-105 Mpc3 corresponding to ˜102-103 potential host galaxies. The localization volume is a strong function of the network signal-to-noise ratio, scaling roughly ∝ϱnet-6. Fractional localizations improve with the addition of further detectors to the network. Our Dirichlet Process Gaussian-mixture model can be adopted for localizing events detected during future gravitational-wave observing runs, and used to facilitate prompt multimessenger follow-up.

Redistribution of Welding Residual Stresses of Crack Tip Opening Displacement Specimen by Local Compression.

PubMed

Kim, Young-Gon; Song, Kuk-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Hoon; Joo, Sung-Min

2018-03-01

The demand of crack tip opening displacement (CTOD) test which evaluates fracture toughness of a cracked material is very important to ensure the stability of structure under severe service environment. The validity of the CTOD test result is judged using several criterions of the specification standards. One of them is the artificially generated fatigue pre-crack length inside the specimen. For acceptable CTOD test results, fatigue pre-crack must have a reasonable sharp crack front. The propagation of fatigue crack started from the tip of the machined notch, which might have propagated irregularly due to residual stress field. To overcome this problem, test codes suggest local compression method, reversed bending method and stepwise high-R ratio method to reduce the disparity of residual stress distribution inside the specimen. In this paper, the relation between the degree of local compression and distribution of welding residual stress has been analyzed by finite element analyses in order to determine the amount of effective local compression of the test piece. Analysis results show that initial welding residual stress is dramatically varied three-dimensionally while cutting, notch machining and local compressing due to the change of internal restraint force. From the simulation result, the authors find that there is an optimum amount of local compression to modify regularly for generating fatigue pre-crack propagation. In the case of 0.5% compressions of the model width is the most effective for uniforming residual stress distribution.

Probabilistic graphs as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoups, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Originally developed in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence, probabilistic graphs constitute a general framework for modeling complex systems in the presence of uncertainty. The framework consists of three components: 1. Representation of the model as a graph (or network), with nodes depicting random variables in the model (e.g. parameters, states, etc), which are joined together by factors. Factors are local probabilistic or deterministic relations between subsets of variables, which, when multiplied together, yield the joint distribution over all variables. 2. Consistent use of probability theory for quantifying uncertainty, relying on basic rules of probability for assimilating data into the model and expressing unknown variables as a function of observations (via the posterior distribution). 3. Efficient, distributed approximation of the posterior distribution using general-purpose algorithms that exploit model structure encoded in the graph. These attributes make probabilistic graphs potentially useful as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management (and beyond). Conceptually, they can provide a common framework for existing and new probabilistic modeling approaches (e.g. by drawing inspiration from other fields of application), while computationally they can make probabilistic inference feasible in larger hydrological models. The presentation explores, via examples, some of these benefits.

A Large-Scale Multi-Hop Localization Algorithm Based on Regularized Extreme Learning for Wireless Networks.

PubMed

Zheng, Wei; Yan, Xiaoyong; Zhao, Wei; Qian, Chengshan

2017-12-20

A novel large-scale multi-hop localization algorithm based on regularized extreme learning is proposed in this paper. The large-scale multi-hop localization problem is formulated as a learning problem. Unlike other similar localization algorithms, the proposed algorithm overcomes the shortcoming of the traditional algorithms which are only applicable to an isotropic network, therefore has a strong adaptability to the complex deployment environment. The proposed algorithm is composed of three stages: data acquisition, modeling and location estimation. In data acquisition stage, the training information between nodes of the given network is collected. In modeling stage, the model among the hop-counts and the physical distances between nodes is constructed using regularized extreme learning. In location estimation stage, each node finds its specific location in a distributed manner. Theoretical analysis and several experiments show that the proposed algorithm can adapt to the different topological environments with low computational cost. Furthermore, high accuracy can be achieved by this method without setting complex parameters.

Effect of platykurtic and leptokurtic distributions in the random-field Ising model: mean-field approach.

PubMed

Duarte Queirós, Sílvio M; Crokidakis, Nuno; Soares-Pinto, Diogo O

2009-07-01

The influence of the tail features of the local magnetic field probability density function (PDF) on the ferromagnetic Ising model is studied in the limit of infinite range interactions. Specifically, we assign a quenched random field whose value is in accordance with a generic distribution that bears platykurtic and leptokurtic distributions depending on a single parameter tau<3 to each site. For tau<5/3, such distributions, which are basically Student-t and r distribution extended for all plausible real degrees of freedom, present a finite standard deviation, if not the distribution has got the same asymptotic power-law behavior as a alpha-stable Lévy distribution with alpha=(3-tau)/(tau-1). For every value of tau, at specific temperature and width of the distribution, the system undergoes a continuous phase transition. Strikingly, we impart the emergence of an inflexion point in the temperature-PDF width phase diagrams for distributions broader than the Cauchy-Lorentz (tau=2) which is accompanied with a divergent free energy per spin (at zero temperature).

Information flow in an atmospheric model and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Young-noh

2011-12-01

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background state estimate with new observations, and the cycle repeats. In an ensemble Kalman filter, the probability distribution of the state estimate is represented by an ensemble of sample states, and the covariance matrix is calculated using the ensemble of sample states. We perform numerical experiments on toy atmospheric models introduced by Lorenz in 2005 to study the information flow in an atmospheric model in conjunction with ensemble Kalman filtering for data assimilation. This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part of this dissertation is about the propagation of information and the use of localization in ensemble Kalman filtering. If we can perform data assimilation locally by considering the observations and the state variables only near each grid point, then we can reduce the number of ensemble members necessary to cover the probability distribution of the state estimate, reducing the computational cost for the data assimilation and the model integration. Several localized versions of the ensemble Kalman filter have been proposed. Although tests applying such schemes have proven them to be extremely promising, a full basic understanding of the rationale and limitations of localization is currently lacking. We address these issues and elucidate the role played by chaotic wave dynamics in the propagation of information and the resulting impact on forecasts. The second part of this dissertation is about ensemble regional data assimilation using joint states. Assuming that we have a global model and a regional model of higher accuracy defined in a subregion inside the global region, we propose a data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model simultaneously, considering forecast information from both models. We show that our new data assimilation scheme produces better results both in the subregion and the global region than the data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model separately.