Optimal mapping of terrestrial gamma dose rates using geological parent material and aerogeophysical survey data.

PubMed

Rawlins, B G; Scheib, C; Tyler, A N; Beamish, D

2012-12-01

Regulatory authorities need ways to estimate natural terrestrial gamma radiation dose rates (nGy h⁻¹) across the landscape accurately, to assess its potential deleterious health effects. The primary method for estimating outdoor dose rate is to use an in situ detector supported 1 m above the ground, but such measurements are costly and cannot capture the landscape-scale variation in dose rates which are associated with changes in soil and parent material mineralogy. We investigate the potential for improving estimates of terrestrial gamma dose rates across Northern Ireland (13,542 km²) using measurements from 168 sites and two sources of ancillary data: (i) a map based on a simplified classification of soil parent material, and (ii) dose estimates from a national-scale, airborne radiometric survey. We used the linear mixed modelling framework in which the two ancillary variables were included in separate models as fixed effects, plus a correlation structure which captures the spatially correlated variance component. We used a cross-validation procedure to determine the magnitude of the prediction errors for the different models. We removed a random subset of 10 terrestrial measurements and formed the model from the remainder (n = 158), and then used the model to predict values at the other 10 sites. We repeated this procedure 50 times. The measurements of terrestrial dose vary between 1 and 103 (nGy h⁻¹). The median absolute model prediction errors (nGy h⁻¹) for the three models declined in the following order: no ancillary data (10.8) > simple geological classification (8.3) > airborne radiometric dose (5.4) as a single fixed effect. Estimates of airborne radiometric gamma dose rate can significantly improve the spatial prediction of terrestrial dose rate.

SU-E-T-561: Monte Carlo-Based Organ Dose Reconstruction Using Pre-Contoured Human Model for Hodgkins Lymphoma Patients Treated by Cobalt-60 External Beam Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jung, J; Pelletier, C; Lee, C

Purpose: Organ doses for the Hodgkin’s lymphoma patients treated with cobalt-60 radiation were estimated using an anthropomorphic model and Monte Carlo modeling. Methods: A cobalt-60 treatment unit modeled in the BEAMnrc Monte Carlo code was used to produce phase space data. The Monte Carlo simulation was verified with percent depth dose measurement in water at various field sizes. Radiation transport through the lung blocks were modeled by adjusting the weights of phase space data. We imported a precontoured adult female hybrid model and generated a treatment plan. The adjusted phase space data and the human model were imported to themore » XVMC Monte Carlo code for dose calculation. The organ mean doses were estimated and dose volume histograms were plotted. Results: The percent depth dose agreement between measurement and calculation in water phantom was within 2% for all field sizes. The mean organ doses of heart, left breast, right breast, and spleen for the selected case were 44.3, 24.1, 14.6 and 3.4 Gy, respectively with the midline prescription dose of 40.0 Gy. Conclusion: Organ doses were estimated for the patient group whose threedimensional images are not available. This development may open the door to more accurate dose reconstruction and estimates of uncertainties in secondary cancer risk for Hodgkin’s lymphoma patients. This work was partially supported by the intramural research program of the National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics.« less

A diversity index for model space selection in the estimation of benchmark and infectious doses via model averaging.

PubMed

Kim, Steven B; Kodell, Ralph L; Moon, Hojin

2014-03-01

In chemical and microbial risk assessments, risk assessors fit dose-response models to high-dose data and extrapolate downward to risk levels in the range of 1-10%. Although multiple dose-response models may be able to fit the data adequately in the experimental range, the estimated effective dose (ED) corresponding to an extremely small risk can be substantially different from model to model. In this respect, model averaging (MA) provides more robustness than a single dose-response model in the point and interval estimation of an ED. In MA, accounting for both data uncertainty and model uncertainty is crucial, but addressing model uncertainty is not achieved simply by increasing the number of models in a model space. A plausible set of models for MA can be characterized by goodness of fit and diversity surrounding the truth. We propose a diversity index (DI) to balance between these two characteristics in model space selection. It addresses a collective property of a model space rather than individual performance of each model. Tuning parameters in the DI control the size of the model space for MA. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

PARMA: PHITS-based Analytical Radiation Model in the Atmosphere--Verification of Its Accuracy in Estimating Cosmic Radiation Doses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Satoh, Daiki; Endo, Akira

Estimation of cosmic-ray spectra in the atmosphere has been an essential issue in the evaluation of the aircrew doses. We therefore developed an analytical model that can predict the terrestrial neutron, proton, He nucleus, muon, electron, positron and photon spectra at altitudes below 20 km, based on the Monte Carlo simulation results of cosmic-ray propagation in the atmosphere performed by the PHITS code. The model was designated PARMA. In order to examine the accuracy of PARMA in terms of the neutron dose estimation, we measured the neutron dose rates at the altitudes between 20 to 10400 m, using our developedmore » dose monitor DARWIN mounted on an aircraft. Excellent agreement was observed between the measured dose rates and the corresponding data calculated by PARMA coupled with the fluence-to-dose conversion coefficients, indicating the applicability of the model to be utilized in the route-dose calculation.« less

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF TCE USING THE DOSE EXPOSURE ESTIMATING MODEL (DEEM) IN ACSL

EPA Science Inventory

The ACSL-based Dose Exposure Estimating Model(DEEM) under development by EPA is used to perform art uncertainty analysis of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PSPK) model of trichloroethylene (TCE). This model involves several circulating metabolites such as trichloroacet...

Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: inter-comparison of modelling approaches.

PubMed

Johansen, M P; Barnett, C L; Beresford, N A; Brown, J E; Černe, M; Howard, B J; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Smodiš, B; Twining, J R; Vandenhove, H; Vives i Batlle, J; Wood, M D; Yu, C

2012-06-15

Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Web-Based System for Bayesian Benchmark Dose Estimation.

PubMed

Shao, Kan; Shapiro, Andrew J

2018-01-11

Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is an important step in human health risk assessment and is used as the default approach to identify the point of departure for risk assessment. A probabilistic framework for dose-response assessment has been proposed and advocated by various institutions and organizations; therefore, a reliable tool is needed to provide distributional estimates for BMD and other important quantities in dose-response assessment. We developed an online system for Bayesian BMD (BBMD) estimation and compared results from this software with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS). The system is built on a Bayesian framework featuring the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model parameter estimation and BMD calculation, which makes the BBMD system fundamentally different from the currently prevailing BMD software packages. In addition to estimating the traditional BMDs for dichotomous and continuous data, the developed system is also capable of computing model-averaged BMD estimates. A total of 518 dichotomous and 108 continuous data sets extracted from the U.S. EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database (and similar databases) were used as testing data to compare the estimates from the BBMD and BMDS programs. The results suggest that the BBMD system may outperform the BMDS program in a number of aspects, including fewer failed BMD and BMDL calculations and estimates. The BBMD system is a useful alternative tool for estimating BMD with additional functionalities for BMD analysis based on most recent research. Most importantly, the BBMD has the potential to incorporate prior information to make dose-response modeling more reliable and can provide distributional estimates for important quantities in dose-response assessment, which greatly facilitates the current trend for probabilistic risk assessment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1289.

Connecting the Dots: Linking Environmental Justice Indicators to Daily Dose Model Estimates

EPA Science Inventory

Many different quantitative techniques have been developed to either assess Environmental Justice (EJ) issues or estimate exposure and dose for risk assessment. However, very few approaches have been applied to link EJ factors to exposure dose estimate and identify potential impa...

Estimation of absorbed doses from paediatric cone-beam CT scans: MOSFET measurements and Monte Carlo simulations.

PubMed

Kim, Sangroh; Yoshizumi, Terry T; Toncheva, Greta; Frush, Donald P; Yin, Fang-Fang

2010-03-01

The purpose of this study was to establish a dose estimation tool with Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. A 5-y-old paediatric anthropomorphic phantom was computed tomography (CT) scanned to create a voxelised phantom and used as an input for the abdominal cone-beam CT in a BEAMnrc/EGSnrc MC system. An X-ray tube model of the Varian On-Board Imager((R)) was built in the MC system. To validate the model, the absorbed doses at each organ location for standard-dose and low-dose modes were measured in the physical phantom with MOSFET detectors; effective doses were also calculated. In the results, the MC simulations were comparable to the MOSFET measurements. This voxelised phantom approach could produce a more accurate dose estimation than the stylised phantom method. This model can be easily applied to multi-detector CT dosimetry.

Neutrons in active proton therapy: Parameterization of dose and dose equivalent.

PubMed

Schneider, Uwe; Hälg, Roger A; Lomax, Tony

2017-06-01

One of the essential elements of an epidemiological study to decide if proton therapy may be associated with increased or decreased subsequent malignancies compared to photon therapy is an ability to estimate all doses to non-target tissues, including neutron dose. This work therefore aims to predict for patients using proton pencil beam scanning the spatially localized neutron doses and dose equivalents. The proton pencil beam of Gantry 1 at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) was Monte Carlo simulated using GEANT. Based on the simulated neutron dose and neutron spectra an analytical mechanistic dose model was developed. The pencil beam algorithm used for treatment planning at PSI has been extended using the developed model in order to calculate the neutron component of the delivered dose distribution for each treated patient. The neutron dose was estimated for two patient example cases. The analytical neutron dose model represents the three-dimensional Monte Carlo simulated dose distribution up to 85cm from the proton pencil beam with a satisfying precision. The root mean square error between Monte Carlo simulation and model is largest for 138MeV protons and is 19% and 20% for dose and dose equivalent, respectively. The model was successfully integrated into the PSI treatment planning system. In average the neutron dose is increased by 10% or 65% when using 160MeV or 177MeV instead of 138MeV. For the neutron dose equivalent the increase is 8% and 57%. The presented neutron dose calculations allow for estimates of dose that can be used in subsequent epidemiological studies or, should the need arise, to estimate the neutron dose at any point where a subsequent secondary tumour may occur. It was found that the neutron dose to the patient is heavily increased with proton energy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Estimating Radiation Dose Metrics for Patients Undergoing Tube Current Modulation CT Scans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, Kyle Lorin

Computed tomography (CT) has long been a powerful tool in the diagnosis of disease, identification of tumors and guidance of interventional procedures. With CT examinations comes the concern of radiation exposure and the associated risks. In order to properly understand those risks on a patient-specific level, organ dose must be quantified for each CT scan. Some of the most widely used organ dose estimates are derived from fixed tube current (FTC) scans of a standard sized idealized patient model. However, in current clinical practice, patient size varies from neonates weighing just a few kg to morbidly obese patients weighing over 200 kg, and nearly all CT exams are performed with tube current modulation (TCM), a scanning technique that adjusts scanner output according to changes in patient attenuation. Methods to account for TCM in CT organ dose estimates have been previously demonstrated, but these methods are limited in scope and/or restricted to idealized TCM profiles that are not based on physical observations and not scanner specific (e.g. don't account for tube limits, scanner-specific effects, etc.). The goal of this work was to develop methods to estimate organ doses to patients undergoing CT scans that take into account both the patient size as well as the effects of TCM. This work started with the development and validation of methods to estimate scanner-specific TCM schemes for any voxelized patient model. An approach was developed to generate estimated TCM schemes that match actual TCM schemes that would have been acquired on the scanner for any patient model. Using this approach, TCM schemes were then generated for a variety of body CT protocols for a set of reference voxelized phantoms for which TCM information does not currently exist. These are whole body patient models representing a variety of sizes, ages and genders that have all radiosensitive organs identified. TCM schemes for these models facilitated Monte Carlo-based estimates of fully-, partially- and indirectly-irradiated organ dose from TCM CT exams. By accounting for the effects of patient size in the organ dose estimates, a comprehensive set of patient-specific dose estimates from TCM CT exams was developed. These patient-specific organ dose estimates from TCM CT exams will provide a more complete understanding of the dose impact and risks associated with modern body CT scanning protocols.

EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL (ERDEM)

EPA Science Inventory

ERDEM is a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model with a graphical user interface (GUI) front end. Such a mathematical model was needed to make reliable estimates of the chemical dose to organs of animals or humans because of uncertainties of making route-to route, lo...

Maxine: A spreadsheet for estimating dose from chronic atmospheric radioactive releases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jannik, Tim; Bell, Evaleigh; Dixon, Kenneth

MAXINE is an EXCEL© spreadsheet, which is used to estimate dose to individuals for routine and accidental atmospheric releases of radioactive materials. MAXINE does not contain an atmospheric dispersion model, but rather doses are estimated using air and ground concentrations as input. Minimal input is required to run the program and site specific parameters are used when possible. Complete code description, verification of models, and user’s manual have been included.

Doses and risks from the ingestion of Dounreay fuel fragments.

PubMed

Darley, P J; Charles, M W; Fell, T P; Harrison, J D

2003-01-01

The radiological implications of ingestion of nuclear fuel fragments present in the marine environment around Dounreay have been reassessed by using the Monte Carlo code MCNP to obtain improved estimates of the doses to target cells in the walls of the lower large intestine resulting from the passage of a fragment. The approach takes account of the reduction in dose due to attenuation within the intestinal wall and self-absorption of radiation in the fuel fragment itself. In addition, dose is calculated on the basis of a realistic estimate of the anatomical volume of the lumen, rather than being based on the average mass of the contents, as in the current ICRP model. Our best estimates of doses from the ingestion of the largest Dounreay particles are at least a factor of 30 lower than those predicted using the current ICRP model. The new ICRP model will address the issues raised here and provide improved estimates of dose.

Benchmark dose analysis via nonparametric regression modeling

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

2013-01-01

Estimation of benchmark doses (BMDs) in quantitative risk assessment traditionally is based upon parametric dose-response modeling. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric model is uncertain and/or misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We describe a nonparametric approach for estimating BMDs with quantal-response data based on an isotonic regression method, and also study use of corresponding, nonparametric, bootstrap-based confidence limits for the BMD. We explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a simulation study, and illustrate the calculations with an example from cancer risk assessment. It is seen that this nonparametric approach can provide a useful alternative for BMD estimation when faced with the problem of parametric model uncertainty. PMID:23683057

EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL ( ERDEM ) A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC AND PHARMACODYNAMIC ( PBPK/PD ) MODEL FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK

EPA Science Inventory

The Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) is a PBPK/PD modeling system that was developed by EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). The ERDEM framework provides the flexibility either to use existing models and to build new PBPK and PBPK/PD models to address...

Sci—Fri PM: Dosimetry—04: Radiation out-of-field dose in the treatment of pediatric central nervous system malignancies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taddei, P J; Tannous, J; Nabha, R

Children diagnosed with central nervous system (CNS) malignancies often receive radiotherapy, which can cause radiogenic late effects. In order to identify and reduce the risk of these late effects, we must understand the radiation doses that these children receive. Modern treatment planning systems accurately estimate the absorbed dose within the treatment fields but poorly estimate the dose outside them. The purpose of our study was to measure the out-of-field dose for children receiving localized radiotherapy for CNS cancer and apply an analytical model for estimating dose as a function of distance from the field edge. Radiation fields designed for amore » 12-year-old boy treated in our clinic were applied to an anthropomorphic phantom containing more than 200 thermoluminescent dosimeters. A double-Gaussian function of absorbed dose versus distance from the field edge (i.e., 50% isodose line) was applied, and parameters were allowed to vary and were fit to the model by minimizing the root mean square deviation, RMSD. The fitted model accurately predicted the dose from distances of 4 cm to 50 cm (RMSD = 0.54 cGy/Gy), but the model was not useful in estimating dose for distances less than 4 cm because of wide variation in measured dose, and the double-Gaussian model failed by systematically underestimating the dose beyond 50 cm. In conclusion, the double-Gaussian model may be applicable for points at distances from the field edge between 4 cm and 50 cm, where most children's radiosensitive tissues are located, but for points beyond 50 cm, an improvement should be investigated.« less

Estimating peak skin and eye lens dose from neuroperfusion examinations: use of Monte Carlo based simulations and comparisons to CTDIvol, AAPM Report No. 111, and ImPACT dosimetry tool values.

PubMed

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H; Villablanca, J Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H; Cody, Dianna D; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2013-09-01

CT neuroperfusion examinations are capable of delivering high radiation dose to the skin or lens of the eyes of a patient and can possibly cause deterministic radiation injury. The purpose of this study is to: (a) estimate peak skin dose and eye lens dose from CT neuroperfusion examinations based on several voxelized adult patient models of different head size and (b) investigate how well those doses can be approximated by some commonly used CT dose metrics or tools, such as CTDIvol, American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and the ImPACT organ dose calculator spreadsheet. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate peak skin and eye lens dose on voxelized patient models, including GSF's Irene, Frank, Donna, and Golem, on four scanners from the major manufacturers at the widest collimation under all available tube potentials. Doses were reported on a per 100 mAs basis. CTDIvol measurements for a 16 cm CTDI phantom, AAPM Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and ImPACT calculations were performed for available scanners at all tube potentials. These were then compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. The dose variations across the different voxelized patient models were small. Dependent on the tube potential and scanner and patient model, CTDIvol values overestimated peak skin dose by 26%-65%, and overestimated eye lens dose by 33%-106%, when compared to Monte Carlo simulations. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements were much closer to peak skin estimates ranging from a 14% underestimate to a 33% overestimate, and with eye lens dose estimates ranging from a 9% underestimate to a 66% overestimate. The ImPACT spreadsheet overestimated eye lens dose by 2%-82% relative to voxelized model simulations. CTDIvol consistently overestimates dose to eye lens and skin. The ImPACT tool also overestimated dose to eye lenses. As such they are still useful as a conservative predictor of dose for CT neuroperfusion studies. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements are a better predictor of both peak skin and eye lens dose than CTDIvol and ImPACT for the patient models used in this study. It should be remembered that both the AAPM Report No. 111 peak dose metric and CTDIvol dose metric are dose indices and were not intended to represent actual organ doses.

Estimating peak skin and eye lens dose from neuroperfusion examinations: Use of Monte Carlo based simulations and comparisons to CTDIvol, AAPM Report No. 111, and ImPACT dosimetry tool values

PubMed Central

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H.; Villablanca, J. Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H.; Cody, Dianna D.; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.

2013-01-01

Purpose: CT neuroperfusion examinations are capable of delivering high radiation dose to the skin or lens of the eyes of a patient and can possibly cause deterministic radiation injury. The purpose of this study is to: (a) estimate peak skin dose and eye lens dose from CT neuroperfusion examinations based on several voxelized adult patient models of different head size and (b) investigate how well those doses can be approximated by some commonly used CT dose metrics or tools, such as CTDIvol, American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and the ImPACT organ dose calculator spreadsheet. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate peak skin and eye lens dose on voxelized patient models, including GSF's Irene, Frank, Donna, and Golem, on four scanners from the major manufacturers at the widest collimation under all available tube potentials. Doses were reported on a per 100 mAs basis. CTDIvol measurements for a 16 cm CTDI phantom, AAPM Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and ImPACT calculations were performed for available scanners at all tube potentials. These were then compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. Results: The dose variations across the different voxelized patient models were small. Dependent on the tube potential and scanner and patient model, CTDIvol values overestimated peak skin dose by 26%–65%, and overestimated eye lens dose by 33%–106%, when compared to Monte Carlo simulations. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements were much closer to peak skin estimates ranging from a 14% underestimate to a 33% overestimate, and with eye lens dose estimates ranging from a 9% underestimate to a 66% overestimate. The ImPACT spreadsheet overestimated eye lens dose by 2%–82% relative to voxelized model simulations. Conclusions: CTDIvol consistently overestimates dose to eye lens and skin. The ImPACT tool also overestimated dose to eye lenses. As such they are still useful as a conservative predictor of dose for CT neuroperfusion studies. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements are a better predictor of both peak skin and eye lens dose than CTDIvol and ImPACT for the patient models used in this study. It should be remembered that both the AAPM Report No. 111 peak dose metric and CTDIvol dose metric are dose indices and were not intended to represent actual organ doses. PMID:24007152

Using machine learning to model dose-response relationships.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K

2016-12-01

Establishing the relationship between various doses of an exposure and a response variable is integral to many studies in health care. Linear parametric models, widely used for estimating dose-response relationships, have several limitations. This paper employs the optimal discriminant analysis (ODA) machine-learning algorithm to determine the degree to which exposure dose can be distinguished based on the distribution of the response variable. By framing the dose-response relationship as a classification problem, machine learning can provide the same functionality as conventional models, but can additionally make individual-level predictions, which may be helpful in practical applications like establishing responsiveness to prescribed drug regimens. Using data from a study measuring the responses of blood flow in the forearm to the intra-arterial administration of isoproterenol (separately for 9 black and 13 white men, and pooled), we compare the results estimated from a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model with those estimated using ODA. Generalized estimating equations and ODA both identified many statistically significant dose-response relationships, separately by race and for pooled data. Post hoc comparisons between doses indicated ODA (based on exact P values) was consistently more conservative than GEE (based on estimated P values). Compared with ODA, GEE produced twice as many instances of paradoxical confounding (findings from analysis of pooled data that are inconsistent with findings from analyses stratified by race). Given its unique advantages and greater analytic flexibility, maximum-accuracy machine-learning methods like ODA should be considered as the primary analytic approach in dose-response applications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

a Biokinetic Model for CESIUM-137 in the Fetus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Karen Lynn

1995-01-01

Previously, there was no method to determine the dose to the embryo, fetus, fetal organs or placenta from radionuclides within the embryo, fetus, or placenta. In the past, the dose to the fetus was assumed to be equivalent to the dose to the uterus. Watson estimated specific absorbed fractions from various maternal organs to the uterine contents which included the fetus, placenta, and amniotic fluid and Sikov estimated the absorbed dose to the embryo/fetus after assuming 1 uCi of radioactivity was made available to the maternal blood.^{1,2} However, this method did not allow for the calculation of a dose to individual fetal organs or the placenta. The radiation dose to the embryo or fetus from Cs-137 in the fetus and placenta due to a chronic ingestion by the mother was determined. The fraction of Cs-137 in the maternal plasma crossing the placenta to the fetal plasma was estimated. The absorbed dose from Cs-137 in each modelled fetal organ was estimated. Since there has been more research regarding potassium in the human body, and particularly in the pregnant woman, a biokinetic model for potassium was developed first and used as a basis and confirmation of the cesium model. Available pertinent information in physiology, embryology, biokinetics, and radiation dosimetry was utilized. Due to the rapid growth of the fetus and placenta, the pregnancy was divided into four gestational periods. The numerous physiological changes that occurred during pregnancy were considered and an appropriate biokinetic model was developed for each of the gestational periods. The amount of cesium in the placenta, embryo, and fetus was estimated for each period. The dose to the fetus from cesium deposited in the embryo or fetus and in the placenta was determined for each period using Medical Internal Radiation Dosimetry (MIRD) methodology. An uncertainty analysis was also performed to account for the variability of the parameters in the biokinetic model based on the experimental data. The uncertainty in the dose estimate was calculated by propagation of errors after determining the uncertainty in the fetal and placenta mass estimates and the effective half-life.

Temporal analysis of the October 1989 proton flare using computerized anatomical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, L. C.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Atwell, W.; Nealy, J. E.

1993-01-01

The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50 percent less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Modified Maxium Likelihood Estimation Method for Completely Separated and Quasi-Completely Separated Data for a Dose-Response Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

McCullagh, P.; Nelder, J.A. Generalized Linear Model , 2nd ed.; Chapman and Hall: London, 1989. 7. Johnston, J. Econometric Methods, 3rd ed.; McGraw...FOR A DOSE-RESPONSE MODEL ECBC-TN-068 Kyong H. Park Steven J. Lagan RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE August 2015 Approved for public release...Likelihood Estimation Method for Completely Separated and Quasi-Completely Separated Data for a Dose-Response Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

A novel approach for estimating ingested dose associated with paracetamol overdose

PubMed Central

Zurlinden, Todd J.; Heard, Kennon

2015-01-01

Aim In cases of paracetamol (acetaminophen, APAP) overdose, an accurate estimate of tissue‐specific paracetamol pharmacokinetics (PK) and ingested dose can offer health care providers important information for the individualized treatment and follow‐up of affected patients. Here a novel methodology is presented to make such estimates using a standard serum paracetamol measurement and a computational framework. Methods The core component of the computational framework was a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model developed and evaluated using an extensive set of human PK data. Bayesian inference was used for parameter and dose estimation, allowing the incorporation of inter‐study variability, and facilitating the calculation of uncertainty in model outputs. Results Simulations of paracetamol time course concentrations in the blood were in close agreement with experimental data under a wide range of dosing conditions. Also, predictions of administered dose showed good agreement with a large collection of clinical and emergency setting PK data over a broad dose range. In addition to dose estimation, the platform was applied for the determination of optimal blood sampling times for dose reconstruction and quantitation of the potential role of paracetamol conjugate measurement on dose estimation. Conclusions Current therapies for paracetamol overdose rely on a generic methodology involving the use of a clinical nomogram. By using the computational framework developed in this study, serum sample data, and the individual patient's anthropometric and physiological information, personalized serum and liver pharmacokinetic profiles and dose estimate could be generated to help inform an individualized overdose treatment and follow‐up plan. PMID:26441245

A novel approach for estimating ingested dose associated with paracetamol overdose.

PubMed

Zurlinden, Todd J; Heard, Kennon; Reisfeld, Brad

2016-04-01

In cases of paracetamol (acetaminophen, APAP) overdose, an accurate estimate of tissue-specific paracetamol pharmacokinetics (PK) and ingested dose can offer health care providers important information for the individualized treatment and follow-up of affected patients. Here a novel methodology is presented to make such estimates using a standard serum paracetamol measurement and a computational framework. The core component of the computational framework was a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model developed and evaluated using an extensive set of human PK data. Bayesian inference was used for parameter and dose estimation, allowing the incorporation of inter-study variability, and facilitating the calculation of uncertainty in model outputs. Simulations of paracetamol time course concentrations in the blood were in close agreement with experimental data under a wide range of dosing conditions. Also, predictions of administered dose showed good agreement with a large collection of clinical and emergency setting PK data over a broad dose range. In addition to dose estimation, the platform was applied for the determination of optimal blood sampling times for dose reconstruction and quantitation of the potential role of paracetamol conjugate measurement on dose estimation. Current therapies for paracetamol overdose rely on a generic methodology involving the use of a clinical nomogram. By using the computational framework developed in this study, serum sample data, and the individual patient's anthropometric and physiological information, personalized serum and liver pharmacokinetic profiles and dose estimate could be generated to help inform an individualized overdose treatment and follow-up plan. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Sensitivity of NTCP parameter values against a change of dose calculation algorithm.

PubMed

Brink, Carsten; Berg, Martin; Nielsen, Morten

2007-09-01

Optimization of radiation treatment planning requires estimations of the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). A number of models exist that estimate NTCP from a calculated dose distribution. Since different dose calculation algorithms use different approximations the dose distributions predicted for a given treatment will in general depend on the algorithm. The purpose of this work is to test whether the optimal NTCP parameter values change significantly when the dose calculation algorithm is changed. The treatment plans for 17 breast cancer patients have retrospectively been recalculated with a collapsed cone algorithm (CC) to compare the NTCP estimates for radiation pneumonitis with those obtained from the clinically used pencil beam algorithm (PB). For the PB calculations the NTCP parameters were taken from previously published values for three different models. For the CC calculations the parameters were fitted to give the same NTCP as for the PB calculations. This paper demonstrates that significant shifts of the NTCP parameter values are observed for three models, comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties of the published parameter values. Thus, it is important to quote the applied dose calculation algorithm when reporting estimates of NTCP parameters in order to ensure correct use of the models.

Sensitivity of NTCP parameter values against a change of dose calculation algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brink, Carsten; Berg, Martin; Nielsen, Morten

2007-09-15

Optimization of radiation treatment planning requires estimations of the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). A number of models exist that estimate NTCP from a calculated dose distribution. Since different dose calculation algorithms use different approximations the dose distributions predicted for a given treatment will in general depend on the algorithm. The purpose of this work is to test whether the optimal NTCP parameter values change significantly when the dose calculation algorithm is changed. The treatment plans for 17 breast cancer patients have retrospectively been recalculated with a collapsed cone algorithm (CC) to compare the NTCP estimates for radiation pneumonitis withmore » those obtained from the clinically used pencil beam algorithm (PB). For the PB calculations the NTCP parameters were taken from previously published values for three different models. For the CC calculations the parameters were fitted to give the same NTCP as for the PB calculations. This paper demonstrates that significant shifts of the NTCP parameter values are observed for three models, comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties of the published parameter values. Thus, it is important to quote the applied dose calculation algorithm when reporting estimates of NTCP parameters in order to ensure correct use of the models.« less

Estimated radiation exposure of German commercial airline cabin crew in the years 1960-2003 modeled using dose registry data for 2004-2015.

PubMed

Wollschläger, Daniel; Hammer, Gaël Paul; Schafft, Thomas; Dreger, Steffen; Blettner, Maria; Zeeb, Hajo

2018-05-01

Exposure to ionizing radiation of cosmic origin is an occupational risk factor in commercial aircrew. In a historic cohort of 26,774 German aircrew, radiation exposure was previously estimated only for cockpit crew using a job-exposure matrix (JEM). Here, a new method for retrospectively estimating cabin crew dose is developed. The German Federal Radiation Registry (SSR) documents individual monthly effective doses for all aircrew. SSR-provided doses on 12,941 aircrew from 2004 to 2015 were used to model cabin crew dose as a function of age, sex, job category, solar activity, and male pilots' dose; the mean annual effective dose was 2.25 mSv (range 0.01-6.39 mSv). In addition to an inverse association with solar activity, exposure followed age- and sex-dependent patterns related to individual career development and life phases. JEM-derived annual cockpit crew doses agreed with SSR-provided doses for 2004 (correlation 0.90, 0.40 mSv root mean squared error), while the estimated average annual effective dose for cabin crew had a prediction error of 0.16 mSv, equaling 7.2% of average annual dose. Past average annual cabin crew dose can be modeled by exploiting systematic external influences as well as individual behavioral determinants of radiation exposure, thereby enabling future dose-response analyses of the full aircrew cohort including measurement error information.

Patient- and cohort-specific dose and risk estimation for abdominopelvic CT: a study based on 100 patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Samei, Ehsan

2012-03-01

The purpose of this work was twofold: (a) to estimate patient- and cohort-specific radiation dose and cancer risk index for abdominopelvic computer tomography (CT) scans; (b) to evaluate the effects of patient anatomical characteristics (size, age, and gender) and CT scanner model on dose and risk conversion coefficients. The study included 100 patient models (42 pediatric models, 58 adult models) and multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare). A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which DLP-normalized-effective dose (k factor) and DLP-normalized-risk index values (q factor) were derived. The k factor showed exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For a given gender, q factor showed exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The discrepancies in k and q factors across scanners were on average 8% and 15%, respectively. This study demonstrates the feasibility of estimating patient-specific organ dose and cohort-specific effective dose and risk index in abdominopelvic CT requiring only the knowledge of patient size, gender, and age.

Placental transfer of radiopharmaceuticals and dosimetry in pregnancy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, J.R.; Stabin, M.G.; Sparks, R.B.

The calculation of radiation dose estimates to the fetus is often important in nuclear medicine. To obtain the best estimates of radiation dose to the fetus, the best biological and physical models should be employed. In this paper, after identification of radiopharmaceuticals often administered to women of childbearing age, the most recent data available on the placental crossover of these radiopharmaceuticals was used (with standard kinetic models describing the maternal distribution and retention and with the best available physical models) to obtain fetal dose estimates for these radiopharmaceuticals were identified as those most commonly administered to women of childbearing years.more » The literature yielded information on placental crossover of 15 radiopharmaceuticals, from animal or human data. Radiation dose estimates are presented in early pregnancy and at 3-, 6-, and 9-months gestation for these radiopharmaceuticals, as well as for many others used in nuclear medicine (the latter considering only maternal organ contributions to fetal dose). 46 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.« less

Low dose radiation risks for women surviving the a-bombs in Japan: generalized additive model.

PubMed

Dropkin, Greg

2016-11-24

Analyses of cancer mortality and incidence in Japanese A-bomb survivors have been used to estimate radiation risks, which are generally higher for women. Relative Risk (RR) is usually modelled as a linear function of dose. Extrapolation from data including high doses predicts small risks at low doses. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are flexible methods for modelling non-linear behaviour. GAMs are applied to cancer incidence in female low dose subcohorts, using anonymous public data for the 1958 - 1998 Life Span Study, to test for linearity, explore interactions, adjust for the skewed dose distribution, examine significance below 100 mGy, and estimate risks at 10 mGy. For all solid cancer incidence, RR estimated from 0 - 100 mGy and 0 - 20 mGy subcohorts is significantly raised. The response tapers above 150 mGy. At low doses, RR increases with age-at-exposure and decreases with time-since-exposure, the preferred covariate. Using the empirical cumulative distribution of dose improves model fit, and capacity to detect non-linear responses. RR is elevated over wide ranges of covariate values. Results are stable under simulation, or when removing exceptional data cells, or adjusting neutron RBE. Estimates of Excess RR at 10 mGy using the cumulative dose distribution are 10 - 45 times higher than extrapolations from a linear model fitted to the full cohort. Below 100 mGy, quasipoisson models find significant effects for all solid, squamous, uterus, corpus, and thyroid cancers, and for respiratory cancers when age-at-exposure > 35 yrs. Results for the thyroid are compatible with studies of children treated for tinea capitis, and Chernobyl survivors. Results for the uterus are compatible with studies of UK nuclear workers and the Techa River cohort. Non-linear models find large, significant cancer risks for Japanese women exposed to low dose radiation from the atomic bombings. The risks should be reflected in protection standards.

[ESTIMATION OF IONIZING RADIATION EFFECTIVE DOSES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION CREWS BY THE METHOD OF CALCULATION MODELING].

PubMed

Mitrikas, V G

2015-01-01

Monitoring of the radiation loading on cosmonauts requires calculation of absorbed dose dynamics with regard to the stay of cosmonauts in specific compartments of the space vehicle that differ in shielding properties and lack means of radiation measurement. The paper discusses different aspects of calculation modeling of radiation effects on human body organs and tissues and reviews the effective dose estimates for cosmonauts working in one or another compartment over the previous period of the International space station operation. It was demonstrated that doses measured by a real or personal dosimeters can be used to calculate effective dose values. Correct estimation of accumulated effective dose can be ensured by consideration for time course of the space radiation quality factor.

An assessment of the doses received by members of the public in Japan following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

PubMed

Bedwell, P; Mortimer, K; Wellings, J; Sherwood, J; Leadbetter, S J; Haywood, S M; Charnock, T; Jones, A R; Hort, M C

2015-12-01

The earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011, centred off the east coast of Japan, caused considerable destruction and substantial loss of life along large swathes of the Japanese coastline. The tsunami damaged the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP), resulting in prolonged releases of radioactive material into the environment. This paper assesses the doses received by members of the public in Japan. The assessment is based on an estimated source term and atmospheric dispersion modelling rather than monitoring data. It is evident from this assessment that across the majority of Japan the estimates of dose are very low, for example they are estimated to be less than the annual average dose from natural background radiation in Japan. Even in the regions local to Fukushima Daiichi NPP (and not affected by any form of evacuation) the maximum lifetime effective dose is estimated to be well below the cumulative natural background dose over the same period. The impact of the urgent countermeasures on the estimates of dose was considered. And the relative contribution to dose from the range of exposure pathways and radionuclides were evaluated. Analysis of estimated doses focused on the geographic irregularity and the impact of the meteorological conditions. For example the dose to an infant's thyroid received over the first year was estimated to be greater in Hirono than in the non-evacuated region of Naraha, despite Hirono being further from the release location. A number of factors were identified and thought to contribute towards this outcome, including the local wind pattern which resulted in the recirculation of part of the release. The non-uniform nature of dose estimates strengthens the case for evaluations based on dispersion modelling.

USE OF EXPOSURE-RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL (ERDEM) FOR ASSESSMENT OF AGGREGATE EXPOSURE OF INFANT AND CHILDREN TO N-METHYL CARBAMATE INSECTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed within the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) framework to investigate selected exposure inputs related to recognized exposure scenarios of infants and children to N-methyl carbamate pesticides as spec...

Preliminary calculation of solar cosmic ray dose to the female breast in space mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shavers, Mark; Poston, John W.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Wilson, John W.

1991-01-01

No regulatory dose limits are specifically assigned for the radiation exposure of female breasts during manned space flight. However, the relatively high radiosensitivity of the glandular tissue of the breasts and its potential exposure to solar flare protons on short- and long-term missions mandate a priori estimation of the associated risks. A model for estimating exposure within the breast is developed for use in future NASA missions. The female breast and torso geometry is represented by a simple interim model. A recently developed proton dose-buildup procedure is used for estimating doses. The model considers geomagnetic shielding, magnetic-storm conditions, spacecraft shielding, and body self-shielding. Inputs to the model include proton energy spectra, spacecraft orbital parameters, STS orbiter-shielding distribution at a given position, and a single parameter allowing for variation in breast size.

Statistical methods for biodosimetry in the presence of both Berkson and classical measurement error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Austin

In radiation epidemiology, the true dose received by those exposed cannot be assessed directly. Physical dosimetry uses a deterministic function of the source term, distance and shielding to estimate dose. For the atomic bomb survivors, the physical dosimetry system is well established. The classical measurement errors plaguing the location and shielding inputs to the physical dosimetry system are well known. Adjusting for the associated biases requires an estimate for the classical measurement error variance, for which no data-driven estimate exists. In this case, an instrumental variable solution is the most viable option to overcome the classical measurement error indeterminacy. Biological indicators of dose may serve as instrumental variables. Specification of the biodosimeter dose-response model requires identification of the radiosensitivity variables, for which we develop statistical definitions and variables. More recently, researchers have recognized Berkson error in the dose estimates, introduced by averaging assumptions for many components in the physical dosimetry system. We show that Berkson error induces a bias in the instrumental variable estimate of the dose-response coefficient, and then address the estimation problem. This model is specified by developing an instrumental variable mixed measurement error likelihood function, which is then maximized using a Monte Carlo EM Algorithm. These methods produce dose estimates that incorporate information from both physical and biological indicators of dose, as well as the first instrumental variable based data-driven estimate for the classical measurement error variance.

Organ dose conversion coefficients for tube current modulated CT protocols for an adult population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Wanyi; Tian, Xiaoyu; Sahbaee, Pooyan; Zhang, Yakun; Segars, William Paul; Samei, Ehsan

2016-03-01

In computed tomography (CT), patient-specific organ dose can be estimated using pre-calculated organ dose conversion coefficients (organ dose normalized by CTDIvol, h factor) database, taking into account patient size and scan coverage. The conversion coefficients have been previously estimated for routine body protocol classes, grouped by scan coverage, across an adult population for fixed tube current modulated CT. The coefficients, however, do not include the widely utilized tube current (mA) modulation scheme, which significantly impacts organ dose. This study aims to extend the h factors and the corresponding dose length product (DLP) to create effective dose conversion coefficients (k factor) database incorporating various tube current modulation strengths. Fifty-eight extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms were included in this study representing population anatomy variation in clinical practice. Four mA profiles, representing weak to strong mA dependency on body attenuation, were generated for each phantom and protocol class. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate the organ dose. The organ dose and effective dose was further normalized by CTDIvol and DLP to derive the h factors and k factors, respectively. The h factors and k factors were summarized in an exponential regression model as a function of body size. Such a population-based mathematical model can provide a comprehensive organ dose estimation given body size and CTDIvol. The model was integrated into an iPhone app XCATdose version 2, enhancing the 1st version based upon fixed tube current modulation. With the organ dose calculator, physicists, physicians, and patients can conveniently estimate organ dose.

The internal dosimetry of Rubidium-82 based on dynamic PET/CT imaging in humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, Chad R.

Rubidium-82 (Rb-82) is a useful blood flow tracer, and has become important in recent years due to the shutdown of the Chalk River reactor. Published effective dose estimates for Rb-82 vary widely, and as yet no comprehensive study in man has been conducted with PET/CT, and no effective dose estimates for Rb-82 during pharmacological stress testing has been published. 30 subjects were recruited for rest, and 25 subjects were recruited for stress. The subjects consisted of both cardiac patients and normal subjects. For rest, a total of 283 organs were measured across 60 scans. For stress, a total of 171 organs were measured across 25 scans. Effective dose estimates were calculated using the ICRP 60, 80, and 103 tissue weighting factors. Relative differences between this study and the published in-vivo estimates showed agreement for the lungs. Relative differences between this study and the blood flow models showed differences> 5 times in the thyroid contribution to the effective dose demonstrating a limitation in these models. Comparisons between rest and stress effective dose estimates revealed no significant difference. The average 'adult' effective dose for Rb-82 was found to be 0.00084+/-0.00018 mSv/MBq. The highest dose organs were the lungs, kidneys and stomach wall. These dose estimates for Rb-82 are the first to be measured directly with PET/CT in humans, and are 4 times lower than previous ICRP 60 values based on a theoretical blood flow model. The total adult effective dose from a typical Rb-82 study including CT for attenuation correction and potential Sr-85 breakthrough is 1.5 +/- 0.4 mSv.

Benchmark Dose Modeling Estimates of the Concentrations of Inorganic Arsenic That Induce Changes to the Neonatal Transcriptome, Proteome, and Epigenome in a Pregnancy Cohort.

PubMed

Rager, Julia E; Auerbach, Scott S; Chappell, Grace A; Martin, Elizabeth; Thompson, Chad M; Fry, Rebecca C

2017-10-16

Prenatal inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure influences the expression of critical genes and proteins associated with adverse outcomes in newborns, in part through epigenetic mediators. The doses at which these genomic and epigenomic changes occur have yet to be evaluated in the context of dose-response modeling. The goal of the present study was to estimate iAs doses that correspond to changes in transcriptomic, proteomic, epigenomic, and integrated multi-omic signatures in human cord blood through benchmark dose (BMD) modeling. Genome-wide DNA methylation, microRNA expression, mRNA expression, and protein expression levels in cord blood were modeled against total urinary arsenic (U-tAs) levels from pregnant women exposed to varying levels of iAs. Dose-response relationships were modeled in BMDExpress, and BMDs representing 10% response levels were estimated. Overall, DNA methylation changes were estimated to occur at lower exposure concentrations in comparison to other molecular endpoints. Multi-omic module eigengenes were derived through weighted gene co-expression network analysis, representing co-modulated signatures across transcriptomic, proteomic, and epigenomic profiles. One module eigengene was associated with decreased gestational age occurring alongside increased iAs exposure. Genes/proteins within this module eigengene showed enrichment for organismal development, including potassium voltage-gated channel subfamily Q member 1 (KCNQ1), an imprinted gene showing differential methylation and expression in response to iAs. Modeling of this prioritized multi-omic module eigengene resulted in a BMD(BMDL) of 58(45) μg/L U-tAs, which was estimated to correspond to drinking water arsenic concentrations of 51(40) μg/L. Results are in line with epidemiological evidence supporting effects of prenatal iAs occurring at levels <100 μg As/L urine. Together, findings present a variety of BMD measures to estimate doses at which prenatal iAs exposure influences neonatal outcome-relevant transcriptomic, proteomic, and epigenomic profiles.

A distributed lag approach to fitting non-linear dose-response models in particulate matter air pollution time series investigations.

PubMed

Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

2007-06-01

The majority of studies that have investigated the relationship between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality have assumed a linear dose-response relationship and have used either a single-day's PM or a 2- or 3-day moving average of PM as the measure of PM exposure. Both of these modeling choices have come under scrutiny in the literature, the linear assumption because it does not allow for non-linearities in the dose-response relationship, and the use of the single- or multi-day moving average PM measure because it does not allow for differential PM-mortality effects spread over time. These two problems have been dealt with on a piecemeal basis with non-linear dose-response models used in some studies and distributed lag models (DLMs) used in others. In this paper, we propose a method for investigating the shape of the PM-mortality dose-response relationship that combines a non-linear dose-response model with a DLM. This combined model will be shown to produce satisfactory estimates of the PM-mortality dose-response relationship in situations where non-linear dose response models and DLMs alone do not; that is, the combined model did not systemically underestimate or overestimate the effect of PM on mortality. The combined model is applied to ten cities in the US and a pooled dose-response model formed. When fitted with a change-point value of 60 microg/m(3), the pooled model provides evidence for a positive association between PM and mortality. The combined model produced larger estimates for the effect of PM on mortality than when using a non-linear dose-response model or a DLM in isolation. For the combined model, the estimated percentage increase in mortality for PM concentrations of 25 and 75 microg/m(3) were 3.3% and 5.4%, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding values from a DLM used in isolation were 1.2% and 3.5%, respectively.

Internal Dose from Food and Drink Ingestion in the Early Phase after the Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawai, Masaki; Yoshizawa, Nobuaki; Hirakawa, Sachiko; Murakami, Kana; Takizawa, Mari; Sato, Osamu; Takagi, Shunji; Miyatake, Hirokazu; Takahashi, Tomoyuki; Suzuki, Gen

2017-09-01

Activity concentrations in food and drink, represented by water and vegetables, have been monitored continuously since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, with a focus on radioactive cesium. On the other hand, iodine-131 was not measured systematically in the early phase after the accident. The activity concentrations of iodine-131 in food and drink are important to estimate internal exposure due to ingestion pathway. When the internal dose from ingestion in the evacuation areas is estimated, water is considered as the main ingestion pathway. In this study, we estimated the values of activity concentrations in water in the early phase after the accident, using a compartment model as an estimation method. The model uses measurement values of activity concentration and deposition rate of iodine-131 onto the ground, which is calculated from an atmospheric dispersion simulation. The model considers how drinking water would be affected by radionuclides deposited into water. We estimated the activity concentrations of water on Kawamata town and Minamisouma city during March of 2011 and the committed effective doses were 0.08 mSv and 0.06 mSv. We calculated the transfer parameters in the model for estimating the activity concentrations in the areas with a small amount of measurement data. In addition, we estimated the committed effective doses from vegetables using atmospheric dispersion simulation and FARMLAND model in case of eating certain vegetables as option information.

Development and comparison of computational models for estimation of absorbed organ radiation dose in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from uptake of iodine-131.

PubMed

Martinez, N E; Johnson, T E; Capello, K; Pinder, J E

2014-12-01

This study develops and compares different, increasingly detailed anatomical phantoms for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) for the purpose of estimating organ absorbed radiation dose and dose rates from (131)I uptake in multiple organs. The models considered are: a simplistic geometry considering a single organ, a more specific geometry employing additional organs with anatomically relevant size and location, and voxel reconstruction of internal anatomy obtained from CT imaging (referred to as CSUTROUT). Dose Conversion Factors (DCFs) for whole body as well as selected organs of O. mykiss were computed using Monte Carlo modeling, and combined with estimated activity concentrations, to approximate dose rates and ultimately determine cumulative radiation dose (μGy) to selected organs after several half-lives of (131)I. The different computational models provided similar results, especially for source organs (less than 30% difference between estimated doses), and whole body DCFs for each model (∼3 × 10(-3) μGy d(-1) per Bq kg(-1)) were comparable to DCFs listed in ICRP 108 for (131)I. The main benefit provided by the computational models developed here is the ability to accurately determine organ dose. A conservative mass-ratio approach may provide reasonable results for sufficiently large organs, but is only applicable to individual source organs. Although CSUTROUT is the more anatomically realistic phantom, it required much more resource dedication to develop and is less flexible than the stylized phantom for similar results. There may be instances where a detailed phantom such as CSUTROUT is appropriate, but generally the stylized phantom appears to be the best choice for an ideal balance between accuracy and resource requirements. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing prediction capabilities of an 131I terrestrial transport model by using measurements collected at the Hanford nuclear facility.

PubMed

Apostoaei, A Iulian

2005-05-01

A model describing transport of 131I in the environment was developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., for assessment of radiation doses and excess lifetime risk from 131I atmospheric releases from Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and from Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory in southeast Idaho. This paper describes the results of an exercise designed to test the reliability of this model and to identify the main sources of uncertainty in doses and risks estimated by this model. The testing of the model was based on materials published by the International Atomic Energy Agency BIOMASS program, specifically environmental data collected after the release into atmosphere of 63 curies of 131I during 2-5 September 1963, after an accident at the Hanford PUREX Chemical Separations Plant, in Hanford, Washington. Measurements of activity in air, vegetation, and milk were collected in nine counties around Hanford during the first couple of months after the accident. The activity of 131I in the thyroid glands of two children was measured 47 d after the accident. The model developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., was used to estimate concentrations of 131I in environmental media, thyroid doses for the general population, and the activity of 131I in thyroid glands of the two children. Predicted concentrations of 131I in pasture grass and milk and thyroid doses were compared with similar estimates produced by other modelers. The SENES model was also used to estimate excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer due to the September 1963 releases of 131I from Hanford. The SENES model was first calibrated and then applied to all locations of interest around Hanford without fitting the model parameters to a given location. Predictions showed that the SENES model reproduces satisfactorily the time-dependent and the time-integrated measured concentrations in vegetation and milk, and provides reliable estimates of 131I activity in thyroids of children. SENES model generated concentrations of 131I closer to observed concentrations, as compared to the predictions produced with other models. The inter-model comparison showed that variation of thyroid doses among all participating models (SENES model included) was a factor of 3 for the general population, but a factor of 10 for the two studied children. As opposed to other models, SENES model allows a complete analysis of uncertainties in every predicted quantity, including estimated thyroid doses and risk of thyroid cancer. The uncertainties in the risk-per-unit-dose and the dose-per-unit-intake coefficients are major contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated lifetime risk and thyroid dose, respectively. The largest contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated concentration in milk are the feed-to-milk transfer factor (F(m)), the dry deposition velocity (V(d)), and the mass interception factor (r/Y)dry for the elemental form of iodine (I2). Exposure to the 1963 PUREX/Hanford accident produced low doses and risks for people living at the studied locations. The upper 97.5th percentile of the excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer for the most extreme situations is about 10(-4). Measurements in pasture grass and milk at all locations around Hanford indicate a very low transfer of 131I from pasture to cow's milk (e.g., a feed-to-milk transfer coefficient, F(m), for commercial cows of about 0.0022 d L(-1)). These values are towards the low end of F(m) values measured elsewhere and they are low compared to the F(m) values used in other dose reconstruction studies, including the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ESTIMATING CHILDREN'S DERMAL AND NON-DIETARY INGESTION EXPOSURE AND DOSE WITH EPA'S SHEDS MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A physically-based stochastic model (SHEDS) has been developed to estimate pesticide exposure and dose to children via dermal residue contact and non-dietary ingestion. Time-location-activity data are sampled from national survey results to generate a population of simulated ch...

Assessing dose-response effects of national essential medicine policy in China: comparison of two methods for handling data with a stepped wedge-like design and hierarchical structure.

PubMed

Ren, Yan; Yang, Min; Li, Qian; Pan, Jay; Chen, Fei; Li, Xiaosong; Meng, Qun

2017-02-22

To introduce multilevel repeated measures (RM) models and compare them with multilevel difference-in-differences (DID) models in assessing the linear relationship between the length of the policy intervention period and healthcare outcomes (dose-response effect) for data from a stepped-wedge design with a hierarchical structure. The implementation of national essential medicine policy (NEMP) in China was a stepped-wedge-like design of five time points with a hierarchical structure. Using one key healthcare outcome from the national NEMP surveillance data as an example, we illustrate how a series of multilevel DID models and one multilevel RM model can be fitted to answer some research questions on policy effects. Routinely and annually collected national data on China from 2008 to 2012. 34 506 primary healthcare facilities in 2675 counties of 31 provinces. Agreement and differences in estimates of dose-response effect and variation in such effect between the two methods on the logarithm-transformed total number of outpatient visits per facility per year (LG-OPV). The estimated dose-response effect was approximately 0.015 according to four multilevel DID models and precisely 0.012 from one multilevel RM model. Both types of model estimated an increase in LG-OPV by 2.55 times from 2009 to 2012, but 2-4.3 times larger SEs of those estimates were found by the multilevel DID models. Similar estimates of mean effects of covariates and random effects of the average LG-OPV among all levels in the example dataset were obtained by both types of model. Significant variances in the dose-response among provinces, counties and facilities were estimated, and the 'lowest' or 'highest' units by their dose-response effects were pinpointed only by the multilevel RM model. For examining dose-response effect based on data from multiple time points with hierarchical structure and the stepped wedge-like designs, multilevel RM models are more efficient, convenient and informative than the multilevel DID models. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

ACUTE AND CHRONIC INTAKES OF FALLOUT RADIONUCLIDES BY MARSHALLESE FROM NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTING AT BIKINI AND ENEWETAK AND RELATED INTERNAL RADIATION DOSES

PubMed Central

Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, André; Melo, Dunstana; Beck, Harold L.; Weinstock, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Annual internal radiation doses resulting from both acute and chronic intakes of all important dose-contributing radionuclides occurring in fallout from nuclear weapons testing at Bikini and Enewetak from 1946 through 1958 have been estimated for the residents living on all atolls and separate reef islands of the Marshall Islands. Internal radiation absorbed doses to the tissues most at risk to cancer induction (red bone marrow, thyroid, stomach, and colon) have been estimated for representative persons of all population communities for all birth years from 1929 through 1968, and for all years of exposure from 1948 through 1970. The acute intake estimates rely on a model using, as its basis, historical urine bioassay data, for members of the Rongelap Island and Ailinginae communities as well as for Rongerik residents. The model also utilizes fallout times of arrival and radionuclide deposition densities estimated for all tests and all atolls. Acute intakes of 63 radionuclides were estimated for the populations of the 20 inhabited atolls and for the communities that were relocated during the testing years for reasons of safety and decontamination. The model used for chronic intake estimates is based on reported whole-body, urine, and blood counting data for residents of Utrik and Rongelap. Dose conversion coefficients relating intake to organ absorbed dose were developed using internationally accepted models but specifically tailored for intakes of particulate fallout by consideration of literature-based evidence to choose the most appropriate alimentary tract absorption fraction (f1) values. Dose estimates were much higher for the thyroid gland than for red marrow, stomach wall, or colon. The highest thyroid doses to adults were about 7,600 mGy for the people exposed on Rongelap; thyroid doses to adults were much lower, by a factor of 100 or more, for the people exposed on the populated atolls of Kwajalein and Majuro. The estimates of radionuclide intake and internal radiation dose to the Marshallese that are presented in this paper are the most complete available anywhere and were used to make projections of lifetime cancer risks to the exposed populations, which are presented in a companion paper in this volume. PMID:20622550

Acute and chronic intakes of fallout radionuclides by Marshallese from nuclear weapons testing at Bikini and Enewetak and related internal radiation doses.

PubMed

Simon, Steven L; Bouville, André; Melo, Dunstana; Beck, Harold L; Weinstock, Robert M

2010-08-01

Annual internal radiation doses resulting from both acute and chronic intakes of all important dose-contributing radionuclides occurring in fallout from nuclear weapons testing at Bikini and Enewetak from 1946 through 1958 have been estimated for the residents living on all atolls and separate reef islands of the Marshall Islands. Internal radiation absorbed doses to the tissues most at risk to cancer induction (red bone marrow, thyroid, stomach, and colon) have been estimated for representative persons of all population communities for all birth years from 1929 through 1968, and for all years of exposure from 1948 through 1970. The acute intake estimates rely on a model using, as its basis, historical urine bioassay data, for members of the Rongelap Island and Ailinginae communities as well as for Rongerik residents. The model also utilizes fallout times of arrival and radionuclide deposition densities estimated for all tests and all atolls. Acute intakes of 63 radionuclides were estimated for the populations of the 20 inhabited atolls and for the communities that were relocated during the testing years for reasons of safety and decontamination. The model used for chronic intake estimates is based on reported whole-body, urine, and blood counting data for residents of Utrik and Rongelap. Dose conversion coefficients relating intake to organ absorbed dose were developed using internationally accepted models but specifically tailored for intakes of particulate fallout by consideration of literature-based evidence to choose the most appropriate alimentary tract absorption fraction (f1) values. Dose estimates were much higher for the thyroid gland than for red marrow, stomach wall, or colon. The highest thyroid doses to adults were about 7,600 mGy for the people exposed on Rongelap; thyroid doses to adults were much lower, by a factor of 100 or more, for the people exposed on the populated atolls of Kwajalein and Majuro. The estimates of radionuclide intake and internal radiation dose to the Marshallese that are presented in this paper are the most complete available anywhere and were used to make projections of lifetime cancer risks to the exposed populations, which are presented in a companion paper in this volume.

Exposure reconstruction for the TCDD-exposed NIOSH cohort using a concentration- and age-dependent model of elimination.

PubMed

Aylward, Lesa L; Brunet, Robert C; Starr, Thomas B; Carrier, Gaétan; Delzell, Elizabeth; Cheng, Hong; Beall, Colleen

2005-08-01

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.

Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties.

PubMed

Puncher, M; Zhang, W; Harrison, J D; Wakeford, R

2017-06-26

Assessments of risk to a specific population group resulting from internal exposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of the appropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dose coefficients used as a radiation protection device for the specified exposure pathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the associated risk is important for informing judgments on reliability; a derived uncertainty factor, UF, is an estimate of the 95% probable geometric difference between the best risk estimate and the nominal risk and is a useful tool for making this assessment. This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis to quantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to radioiodine by members of the public, specifically 1, 10 and 20-year old females from the population of England and Wales. Best estimates of thyroid cancer incidence risk (lifetime attributable risk) are calculated for ingestion or inhalation of 129 I and 131 I, accounting for uncertainties in biokinetic model and cancer risk model parameter values. These estimates are compared with the equivalent ICRP derived nominal age-, sex- and population-averaged estimates of excess thyroid cancer incidence to obtain UFs. Derived UF values for ingestion or inhalation of 131 I for 1 year, 10-year and 20-year olds are around 28, 12 and 6, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 103 nominal values, and 9, 7 and 14, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 60 values. Broadly similar results were obtained for 129 I. The uncertainties on risk estimates are largely determined by uncertainties on risk model parameters rather than uncertainties on biokinetic model parameters. An examination of the sensitivity of the results to the risk models and populations used in the calculations show variations in the central estimates of risk of a factor of around 2-3. It is assumed that the direct proportionality of excess thyroid cancer risk and dose observed at low to moderate acute doses and incorporated in the risk models also applies to very small doses received at very low dose rates; the uncertainty in this assumption is considerable, but largely unquantifiable. The UF values illustrate the need for an informed approach to the use of ICRP dose and risk coefficients.

A macroscopic and microscopic study of radon exposure using Geant4 and MCNPX to estimate dose rates and DNA damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Akker, Mary Evelyn

Radon is considered the second-leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Epidemiological studies have been conducted in miner cohorts as well as general populations to estimate the risks associated with high and low dose exposures. There are problems with extrapolating risk estimates to low dose exposures, mainly that the dose-response curve at low doses is not well understood. Calculated dosimetric quantities give average energy depositions in an organ or a whole body, but morphological features of an individual can affect these values. As opposed to human phantom models, Computed Tomography (CT) scans provide unique, patient-specific geometries that are valuable in modeling the radiological effects of the short-lived radon progeny sources. Monte Carlo particle transport code Geant4 was used with the CT scan data to model radon inhalation in the main bronchial bifurcation. The equivalent dose rates are near the lower bounds of estimates found in the literature, depending on source volume. To complement the macroscopic study, simulations were run in a small tissue volume in Geant4-DNA toolkit. As an expansion of Geant4 meant to simulate direct physical interactions at the cellular level, the particle track structure of the radon progeny alphas can be analyzed to estimate the damage that can occur in sensitive cellular structures like the DNA molecule. These estimates of DNA double strand breaks are lower than those found in Geant4-DNA studies. Further refinements of the microscopic model are at the cutting edge of nanodosimetry research.

Quantification of dose uncertainties for the bladder in prostate cancer radiotherapy based on dominant eigenmodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rios, Richard; Acosta, Oscar; Lafond, Caroline; Espinosa, Jairo; de Crevoisier, Renaud

2017-11-01

In radiotherapy for prostate cancer the dose at the treatment planning for the bladder may be a bad surrogate of the actual delivered dose as the bladder presents the largest inter-fraction shape variations during treatment. This paper presents PCA models as a virtual tool to estimate dosimetric uncertainties for the bladder produced by motion and deformation between fractions. Our goal is to propose a methodology to determine the minimum number of modes required to quantify dose uncertainties of the bladder for motion/deformation models based on PCA. We trained individual PCA models using the bladder contours available from three patients with a planning computed tomography (CT) and on-treatment cone-beam CTs (CBCTs). Based on the above models and via deformable image registration (DIR), we estimated two accumulated doses: firstly, an accumulated dose obtained by integrating the planning dose over the Gaussian probability distribution of the PCA model; and secondly, an accumulated dose obtained by simulating treatment courses via a Monte Carlo approach. We also computed a reference accumulated dose for each patient using his available images via DIR. Finally, we compared the planning dose with the three accumulated doses, and we calculated local dose variability and dose-volume histogram uncertainties.

Statistical strategies for averaging EC50 from multiple dose-response experiments.

PubMed

Jiang, Xiaoqi; Kopp-Schneider, Annette

2015-11-01

In most dose-response studies, repeated experiments are conducted to determine the EC50 value for a chemical, requiring averaging EC50 estimates from a series of experiments. Two statistical strategies, the mixed-effect modeling and the meta-analysis approach, can be applied to estimate average behavior of EC50 values over all experiments by considering the variabilities within and among experiments. We investigated these two strategies in two common cases of multiple dose-response experiments in (a) complete and explicit dose-response relationships are observed in all experiments and in (b) only in a subset of experiments. In case (a), the meta-analysis strategy is a simple and robust method to average EC50 estimates. In case (b), all experimental data sets can be first screened using the dose-response screening plot, which allows visualization and comparison of multiple dose-response experimental results. As long as more than three experiments provide information about complete dose-response relationships, the experiments that cover incomplete relationships can be excluded from the meta-analysis strategy of averaging EC50 estimates. If there are only two experiments containing complete dose-response information, the mixed-effects model approach is suggested. We subsequently provided a web application for non-statisticians to implement the proposed meta-analysis strategy of averaging EC50 estimates from multiple dose-response experiments.

Estimation of dose-response models for discrete and continuous data in weed science

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dose-response analysis is widely used in biological sciences and has application to a variety of risk assessment, bioassay, and calibration problems. In weed science, dose-response methodologies have typically relied on least squares estimation under an assumption of normality. Advances in computati...

SU-F-T-02: Estimation of Radiobiological Doses (BED and EQD2) of Single Fraction Electronic Brachytherapy That Equivalent to I-125 Eye Plaque: By Using Linear-Quadratic and Universal Survival Curve Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Y; Waldron, T; Pennington, E

Purpose: To test the radiobiological impact of hypofractionated choroidal melanoma brachytherapy, we calculated single fraction equivalent doses (SFED) of the tumor that equivalent to 85 Gy of I125-BT for 20 patients. Corresponding organs-at-risks (OARs) doses were estimated. Methods: Twenty patients treated with I125-BT were retrospectively examined. The tumor SFED values were calculated from tumor BED using a conventional linear-quadratic (L-Q) model and an universal survival curve (USC). The opposite retina (α/β = 2.58), macula (2.58), optic disc (1.75), and lens (1.2) were examined. The % doses of OARs over tumor doses were assumed to be the same as for amore » single fraction delivery. The OAR SFED values were converted into BED and equivalent dose in 2 Gy fraction (EQD2) by using both L-Q and USC models, then compared to I125-BT. Results: The USC-based BED and EQD2 doses of the macula, optic disc, and the lens were on average 118 ± 46% (p < 0.0527), 126 ± 43% (p < 0.0354), and 112 ± 32% (p < 0.0265) higher than those of I125-BT, respectively. The BED and EQD2 doses of the opposite retina were 52 ± 9% lower than I125-BT. The tumor SFED values were 25.2 ± 3.3 Gy and 29.1 ± 2.5 Gy when using USC and LQ models which can be delivered within 1 hour. All BED and EQD2 values using L-Q model were significantly larger when compared to the USC model (p < 0.0274) due to its large single fraction size (> 14 Gy). Conclusion: The estimated single fraction doses were feasible to be delivered within 1 hour using a high dose rate source such as electronic brachytherapy (eBT). However, the estimated OAR doses using eBT were 112 ∼ 118% higher than when using the I125-BT technique. Continued exploration of alternative dose rate or fractionation schedules should be followed.« less

Do fungi need to be included within environmental radiation protection assessment models?

PubMed

Guillén, J; Baeza, A; Beresford, N A; Wood, M D

2017-09-01

Fungi are used as biomonitors of forest ecosystems, having comparatively high uptakes of anthropogenic and naturally occurring radionuclides. However, whilst they are known to accumulate radionuclides they are not typically considered in radiological assessment tools for environmental (non-human biota) assessment. In this paper the total dose rate to fungi is estimated using the ERICA Tool, assuming different fruiting body geometries, a single ellipsoid and more complex geometries considering the different components of the fruit body and their differing radionuclide contents based upon measurement data. Anthropogenic and naturally occurring radionuclide concentrations from the Mediterranean ecosystem (Spain) were used in this assessment. The total estimated weighted dose rate was in the range 0.31-3.4 μGy/h (5 th -95 th percentile), similar to natural exposure rates reported for other wild groups. The total estimated dose was dominated by internal exposure, especially from 226 Ra and 210 Po. Differences in dose rate between complex geometries and a simple ellipsoid model were negligible. Therefore, the simple ellipsoid model is recommended to assess dose rates to fungal fruiting bodies. Fungal mycelium was also modelled assuming a long filament. Using these geometries, assessments for fungal fruiting bodies and mycelium under different scenarios (post-accident, planned release and existing exposure) were conducted, each being based on available monitoring data. The estimated total dose rate in each case was below the ERICA screening benchmark dose, except for the example post-accident existing exposure scenario (the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone) for which a dose rate in excess of 35 μGy/h was estimated for the fruiting body. Estimated mycelium dose rate in this post-accident existing exposure scenario was close to the 400 μGy/h benchmark for plants, although fungi are generally considered to be less radiosensitive than plants. Further research on appropriate mycelium geometries and their radionuclide content is required. Based on the assessments presented in this paper, there is no need to recommend that fungi should be added to the existing assessment tools and frameworks; if required some tools allow a geometry representing fungi to be created and used within a dose assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organ Dose-Rate Calculations for Small Mammals at Maralinga, the Nevada Test Site, Hanford and Fukushima: A Comparison of Ellipsoidal and Voxelized Dosimetric Methodologies.

PubMed

Caffrey, Emily A; Johansen, Mathew P; Higley, Kathryn A

2015-10-01

Radiological dosimetry for nonhuman biota typically relies on calculations that utilize the Monte Carlo simulations of simple, ellipsoidal geometries with internal radioactivity distributed homogeneously throughout. In this manner it is quick and easy to estimate whole-body dose rates to biota. Voxel models are detailed anatomical phantoms that were first used for calculating radiation dose to humans, which are now being extended to nonhuman biota dose calculations. However, if simple ellipsoidal models provide conservative dose-rate estimates, then the additional labor involved in creating voxel models may be unnecessary for most scenarios. Here we show that the ellipsoidal method provides conservative estimates of organ dose rates to small mammals. Organ dose rates were calculated for environmental source terms from Maralinga, the Nevada Test Site, Hanford and Fukushima using both the ellipsoidal and voxel techniques, and in all cases the ellipsoidal method yielded more conservative dose rates by factors of 1.2-1.4 for photons and 5.3 for beta particles. Dose rates for alpha-emitting radionuclides are identical for each method as full energy absorption in source tissue is assumed. The voxel procedure includes contributions to dose from organ-to-organ irradiation (shown here to comprise 2-50% of total dose from photons and 0-93% of total dose from beta particles) that is not specifically quantified in the ellipsoidal approach. Overall, the voxel models provide robust dosimetry for the nonhuman mammals considered in this study, and though the level of detail is likely extraneous to demonstrating regulatory compliance today, voxel models may nevertheless be advantageous in resolving ongoing questions regarding the effects of ionizing radiation on wildlife.

Predictions of Leukemia Risks to Astronauts from Solar Particle Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Atwell, W.; Kim, M. Y.; George, K. A.; Ponomarev, A.; Nikjoo, H.; Wilson, J. W.

2006-01-01

Leukemias consisting of acute and chronic myeloid leukemia and acute lymphatic lymphomas represent the earliest cancers that appear after radiation exposure, have a high lethality fraction, and make up a significant fraction of the overall fatal cancer risk from radiation for adults. Several considerations impact the recommendation of a preferred model for the estimation of leukemia risks from solar particle events (SPE's): The BEIR VII report recommends several changes to the method of calculation of leukemia risk compared to the methods recommended by the NCRP Report No. 132 including the preference of a mixture model with additive and multiplicative components in BEIR VII compared to the additive transfer model recommended by NCRP Report No. 132. Proton fluences and doses vary considerably across marrow regions because of the characteristic spectra of primary solar protons making the use of an average dose suspect. Previous estimates of bone marrow doses from SPE's have used an average body-shielding distribution for marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). We have developed an 82-point body-shielding distribution that faithfully reproduces the mean and variance of SPE doses in the active marrow regions (head and neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis and thighs) allowing for more accurate estimation of linear- and quadratic-dose components of the marrow response. SPE's have differential dose-rates and a pseudo-quadratic dose response term is possible in the peak-flux period of an event. Also, the mechanistic basis for leukemia risk continues to improve allowing for improved strategies in choosing dose-rate modulation factors and radiation quality descriptors. We make comparisons of the various choices of the components in leukemia risk estimates in formulating our preferred model. A major finding is that leukemia could be the dominant risk to astronauts for a major solar particle event.

MO-E-17A-08: Attenuation-Based Size Adjusted, Scanner-Independent Organ Dose Estimates for Head CT Exams: TG 204 for Head CT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMillan, K; Bostani, M; Cagnon, C

Purpose: AAPM Task Group 204 described size specific dose estimates (SSDE) for body scans. The purpose of this work is to use a similar approach to develop patient-specific, scanner-independent organ dose estimates for head CT exams using an attenuation-based size metric. Methods: For eight patient models from the GSF family of voxelized phantoms, dose to brain and lens of the eye was estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of contiguous axial scans for 64-slice MDCT scanners from four major manufacturers. Organ doses were normalized by scannerspecific 16 cm CTDIvol values and averaged across all scanners to obtain scanner-independent CTDIvol-to-organ-dose conversion coefficientsmore » for each patient model. Head size was measured at the first slice superior to the eyes; patient perimeter and effective diameter (ED) were measured directly from the GSF data. Because the GSF models use organ identification codes instead of Hounsfield units, water equivalent diameter (WED) was estimated indirectly. Using the image data from 42 patients ranging from 2 weeks old to adult, the perimeter, ED and WED size metrics were obtained and correlations between each metric were established. Applying these correlations to the GSF perimeter and ED measurements, WED was calculated for each model. The relationship between the various patient size metrics and CTDIvol-to-organ-dose conversion coefficients was then described. Results: The analysis of patient images demonstrated the correlation between WED and ED across a wide range of patient sizes. When applied to the GSF patient models, an exponential relationship between CTDIvol-to-organ-dose conversion coefficients and the WED size metric was observed with correlation coefficients of 0.93 and 0.77 for the brain and lens of the eye, respectively. Conclusion: Strong correlation exists between CTDIvol normalized brain dose and WED. For the lens of the eye, a lower correlation is observed, primarily due to surface dose variations. Funding Support: Siemens-UCLA Radiology Master Research Agreement; Disclosures - Michael McNitt-Gray: Institutional Research Agreement, Siemens AG; Research Support, Siemens AG; Consultant, Flaherty Sensabaugh Bonasso PLLC; Consultant, Fulbright and Jaworski.« less

Study of the uncertainty in estimation of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiation.

PubMed

Avila, R; Beresford, N A; Agüero, A; Broed, R; Brown, J; Iospje, M; Robles, B; Suañez, A

2004-12-01

Uncertainty in estimations of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiation may arise from a number of sources including values of the model parameters, empirical data, measurement errors and biases in the sampling. The significance of the overall uncertainty of an exposure assessment will depend on how the estimated dose compares with reference doses used for risk characterisation. In this paper, we present the results of a study of the uncertainty in estimation of the exposure of non-human biota using some of the models and parameters recommended in the FASSET methodology. The study was carried out for semi-natural terrestrial, agricultural and marine ecosystems, and for four radionuclides (137Cs, 239Pu, 129I and 237Np). The parameters of the radionuclide transfer models showed the highest sensitivity and contributed the most to the uncertainty in the predictions of doses to biota. The most important ones were related to the bioavailability and mobility of radionuclides in the environment, for example soil-to-plant transfer factors, the bioaccumulation factors for marine biota and the gut uptake fraction for terrestrial mammals. In contrast, the dose conversion coefficients showed low sensitivity and contributed little to the overall uncertainty. Radiobiological effectiveness contributed to the overall uncertainty of the dose estimations for alpha emitters although to a lesser degree than a number of transfer model parameters.

Shared Dosimetry Error in Epidemiological Dose-Response Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stram, Daniel O.; Preston, Dale L.; Sokolnikov, Mikhail

2015-03-23

Radiation dose reconstruction systems for large-scale epidemiological studies are sophisticated both in providing estimates of dose and in representing dosimetry uncertainty. For example, a computer program was used by the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study to provide 100 realizations of possible dose to study participants. The variation in realizations reflected the range of possible dose for each cohort member consistent with the data on dose determinates in the cohort. Another example is the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013 which estimates both external and internal exposures and provides multiple realizations of "possible" dose history to workers given dose determinants. This paper takesmore » up the problem of dealing with complex dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of dose in an epidemiologic analysis. In this paper we derive expected scores and the information matrix for a model used widely in radiation epidemiology, namely the linear excess relative risk (ERR) model that allows for a linear dose response (risk in relation to radiation) and distinguishes between modifiers of background rates and of the excess risk due to exposure. We show that treating the mean dose for each individual (calculated by averaging over the realizations) as if it was true dose (ignoring both shared and unshared dosimetry errors) gives asymptotically unbiased estimates (i.e. the score has expectation zero) and valid tests of the null hypothesis that the ERR slope β is zero. Although the score is unbiased the information matrix (and hence the standard errors of the estimate of β) is biased for β≠0 when ignoring errors in dose estimates, and we show how to adjust the information matrix to remove this bias, using the multiple realizations of dose. Use of these methods for several studies, including the Mayak Worker Cohort and the U.S. Atomic Veterans Study, is discussed.« less

Advances in Inhalation Dosimetry Models and Methods for Occupational Risk Assessment and Exposure Limit Derivation

PubMed Central

Kuempel, Eileen D.; Sweeney, Lisa M.; Morris, John B.; Jarabek, Annie M.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide an overview and practical guide to occupational health professionals concerning the derivation and use of dose estimates in risk assessment for development of occupational exposure limits (OELs) for inhaled substances. Dosimetry is the study and practice of measuring or estimating the internal dose of a substance in individuals or a population. Dosimetry thus provides an essential link to understanding the relationship between an external exposure and a biological response. Use of dosimetry principles and tools can improve the accuracy of risk assessment, and reduce the uncertainty, by providing reliable estimates of the internal dose at the target tissue. This is accomplished through specific measurement data or predictive models, when available, or the use of basic dosimetry principles for broad classes of materials. Accurate dose estimation is essential not only for dose-response assessment, but also for interspecies extrapolation and for risk characterization at given exposures. Inhalation dosimetry is the focus of this paper since it is a major route of exposure in the workplace. Practical examples of dose estimation and OEL derivation are provided for inhaled gases and particulates. PMID:26551218

Estimation of dose rates at the entrance surface for exposure scenarios of total body irradiation using MCNPX code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunha, J. S.; Cavalcante, F. R.; Souza, S. O.; Souza, D. N.; Santos, W. S.; Carvalho Júnior, A. B.

2017-11-01

One of the main criteria that must be held in Total Body Irradiation (TBI) is the uniformity of dose in the body. In TBI procedures the certification that the prescribed doses are absorbed in organs is made with dosimeters positioned on the patient skin. In this work, we modelled TBI scenarios in the MCNPX code to estimate the entrance dose rate in the skin for comparison and validation of simulations with experimental measurements from literature. Dose rates were estimated simulating an ionization chamber laterally positioned on thorax, abdomen, leg and thigh. Four exposure scenarios were simulated: ionization chamber (S1), TBI room (S2), and patient represented by hybrid phantom (S3) and water stylized phantom (S4) in sitting posture. The posture of the patient in experimental work was better represented by S4 compared with hybrid phantom, and this led to minimum and maximum percentage differences of 1.31% and 6.25% to experimental measurements for thorax and thigh regions, respectively. As for all simulations reported here the percentage differences in the estimated dose rates were less than 10%, we considered that the obtained results are consistent with experimental measurements and the modelled scenarios are suitable to estimate the absorbed dose in organs during TBI procedure.

RADTRAD: A simplified model for RADionuclide Transport and Removal And Dose estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Humphreys, S.L.; Miller, L.A.; Monroe, D.K.

1998-04-01

This report documents the RADTRAD computer code developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) to estimate transport and removal of radionuclides and dose at selected receptors. The document includes a users` guide to the code, a description of the technical basis for the code, the quality assurance and code acceptance testing documentation, and a programmers` guide. The RADTRAD code can be used to estimate the containment release using either the NRC TID-14844 or NUREG-1465 source terms and assumptions, or a user-specified table. In addition, the code can account for a reduction in themore » quantity of radioactive material due to containment sprays, natural deposition, filters, and other natural and engineered safety features. The RADTRAD code uses a combination of tables and/or numerical models of source term reduction phenomena to determine the time-dependent dose at user-specified locations for a given accident scenario. The code system also provides the inventory, decay chain, and dose conversion factor tables needed for the dose calculation. The RADTRAD code can be used to assess occupational radiation exposures, typically in the control room; to estimate site boundary doses; and to estimate dose attenuation due to modification of a facility or accident sequence.« less

Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of dose estimates in radiochromic film dosimetry with single-channel and multichannel algorithms.

PubMed

Vera-Sánchez, Juan Antonio; Ruiz-Morales, Carmen; González-López, Antonio

2018-03-01

To provide a multi-stage model to calculate uncertainty in radiochromic film dosimetry with Monte-Carlo techniques. This new approach is applied to single-channel and multichannel algorithms. Two lots of Gafchromic EBT3 are exposed in two different Varian linacs. They are read with an EPSON V800 flatbed scanner. The Monte-Carlo techniques in uncertainty analysis provide a numerical representation of the probability density functions of the output magnitudes. From this numerical representation, traditional parameters of uncertainty analysis as the standard deviations and bias are calculated. Moreover, these numerical representations are used to investigate the shape of the probability density functions of the output magnitudes. Also, another calibration film is read in four EPSON scanners (two V800 and two 10000XL) and the uncertainty analysis is carried out with the four images. The dose estimates of single-channel and multichannel algorithms show a Gaussian behavior and low bias. The multichannel algorithms lead to less uncertainty in the final dose estimates when the EPSON V800 is employed as reading device. In the case of the EPSON 10000XL, the single-channel algorithms provide less uncertainty in the dose estimates for doses higher than four Gy. A multi-stage model has been presented. With the aid of this model and the use of the Monte-Carlo techniques, the uncertainty of dose estimates for single-channel and multichannel algorithms are estimated. The application of the model together with Monte-Carlo techniques leads to a complete characterization of the uncertainties in radiochromic film dosimetry. Copyright © 2018 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A revised probabilistic estimate of the maternal methyl mercury intake dose corresponding to a measured cord blood mercury concentration.

PubMed

Stern, Alan H

2005-02-01

In 2001, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) adopted a revised reference dose (RfD) for methyl mercury (MeHg) of 0.1 microg/kg/day. The RfD is based on neurologic developmental effects measured in children associated with exposure in utero to MeHg from the maternal diet. The RfD derivation proceeded from a point of departure based on measured concentration of mercury in fetal cord blood (micrograms per liter). The RfD, however, is a maternal dose (micrograms per kilogram per day). Reconstruction of the maternal dose corresponding to this cord blood concentration, including the variability around this estimate, is a critical step in the RfD derivation. The dose reconstruction employed by the U.S. EPA using the one-compartment pharmacokinetic model contains two areas of significant uncertainty: It does not directly account for the influence of the ratio of cord blood: maternal blood Hg concentration, and it does not resolve uncertainty regarding the most appropriate central tendency estimates for pregnancy and third-trimester-specific model parameters. A probabilistic reassessment of this dose reconstruction was undertaken to address these areas of uncertainty and generally to reconsider the specification of model input parameters. On the basis of a thorough review of the literature and recalculation of the one-compartment model including sensitivity analyses, I estimated that the 95th and 99th percentiles (i.e., the lower 5th and 1st percentiles) of the maternal intake dose corresponding to a fetal cord blood Hg concentration of 58 microg/L are 0.3 and 0.2 microg/kg/day, respectively. For the 99th percentile, this is half the value previously estimated by the U.S. EPA.

Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

2013-01-01

Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

Estimating Toxicity-Related Biological Pathway Altering Doses for High-Throughput Chemical Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We describe a framework for estimating the human dose at which a chemical significantly alters a biological pathway in vivo, making use of in vitro assay data and an in vitro derived pharmacokinetic model, coupled with estimates of population variability and uncertainty. The q...

Practical simplifications for radioimmunotherapy dosimetric models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, S.; DeNardo, G.L.; O`Donnell, R.T.

1999-01-01

Radiation dosimetry is potentially useful for assessment and prediction of efficacy and toxicity for radionuclide therapy. The usefulness of these dose estimates relies on the establishment of a dose-response model using accurate pharmacokinetic data and a radiation dosimetric model. Due to the complexity in radiation dose estimation, many practical simplifications have been introduced in the dosimetric modeling for clinical trials of radioimmunotherapy. Although research efforts are generally needed to improve the simplifications used at each stage of model development, practical simplifications are often possible for specific applications without significant consequences to the dose-response model. In the development of dosimetric methodsmore » for radioimmunotherapy, practical simplifications in the dosimetric models were introduced. This study evaluated the magnitude of uncertainty associated with practical simplifications for: (1) organ mass of the MIRD phantom; (2) radiation contribution from target alone; (3) interpolation of S value; (4) macroscopic tumor uniformity; and (5) fit of tumor pharmacokinetic data.« less

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part I. Development and validation of a Monte Carlo program

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dose-reporting system that provides dose and risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. As the first step toward patient-specific dose and risk estimation, this article aimed to develop a method for accurately assessing radiation dose from CT examinations. Methods: A Monte Carlo program was developed to model a CT system (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare). The geometry of the system, the energy spectra of the x-ray source, the three-dimensional geometry of the bowtie filters, and the trajectories of source motions during axial and helical scans were explicitly modeled. To validate the accuracy of the program, a cylindrical phantom was built to enable dose measurements at seven different radial distances from its central axis. Simulated radial dose distributions in the cylindrical phantom were validated against ion chamber measurements for single axial scans at all combinations of tube potential and bowtie filter settings. The accuracy of the program was further validated using two anthropomorphic phantoms (a pediatric one-year-old phantom and an adult female phantom). Computer models of the two phantoms were created based on their CT data and were voxelized for input into the Monte Carlo program. Simulated dose at various organ locations was compared against measurements made with thermoluminescent dosimetry chips for both single axial and helical scans. Results: For the cylindrical phantom, simulations differed from measurements by −4.8% to 2.2%. For the two anthropomorphic phantoms, the discrepancies between simulations and measurements ranged between (−8.1%, 8.1%) and (−17.2%, 13.0%) for the single axial scans and the helical scans, respectively. Conclusions: The authors developed an accurate Monte Carlo program for assessing radiation dose from CT examinations. When combined with computer models of actual patients, the program can provide accurate dose estimates for specific patients. PMID:21361208

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient’s clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller patients. However, the overall risk of cancer incidence attributable to the CT examination was much higher for the newborn (2.4 in 1000) than for the teenager (0.7 in 1000). For the two pediatric-aged patients in our study, CTDIvol underestimated dose to large organs in the scan coverage by 30%–48%. The effective dose derived from DLP using published conversion coefficients differed from that calculated using patient-specific organ dose values by −57% to 13%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 60 were used, and by −63% to 28%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 103 were used. Conclusions: It is possible to estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations by combining a validated Monte Carlo program with patient-specific anatomical models that are derived from the patients’ clinical CT data and supplemented by transformed models of reference adults. With the construction of a large library of patient-specific computer models encompassing patients of all ages and weight percentiles, dose and risk can be estimated for any patient prior to or after a CT examination. Such information may aid in decisions for image utilization and can further guide the design and optimization of CT technologies and scan protocols. PMID:21361209

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul

2011-01-15

Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GEmore » Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient's clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller patients. However, the overall risk of cancer incidence attributable to the CT examination was much higher for the newborn (2.4 in 1000) than for the teenager (0.7 in 1000). For the two pediatric-aged patients in our study, CTDI{sub vol} underestimated dose to large organs in the scan coverage by 30%-48%. The effective dose derived from DLP using published conversion coefficients differed from that calculated using patient-specific organ dose values by -57% to 13%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 60 were used, and by -63% to 28%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 103 were used. Conclusions: It is possible to estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations by combining a validated Monte Carlo program with patient-specific anatomical models that are derived from the patients' clinical CT data and supplemented by transformed models of reference adults. With the construction of a large library of patient-specific computer models encompassing patients of all ages and weight percentiles, dose and risk can be estimated for any patient prior to or after a CT examination. Such information may aid in decisions for image utilization and can further guide the design and optimization of CT technologies and scan protocols.« less

Non-Targeted Effects and the Dose Response for Heavy Ion Tumorigenesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

There is no human epidemiology data available to estimate the heavy ion cancer risks experienced by astronauts in space. Studies of tumor induction in mice are a necessary step to estimate risks to astronauts. Previous experimental data can be better utilized to model dose response for heavy ion tumorigenesis and plan future low dose studies.

Modeling adverse event counts in phase I clinical trials of a cytotoxic agent.

PubMed

Muenz, Daniel G; Braun, Thomas M; Taylor, Jeremy Mg

2018-05-01

Background/Aims The goal of phase I clinical trials for cytotoxic agents is to find the maximum dose with an acceptable risk of severe toxicity. The most common designs for these dose-finding trials use a binary outcome indicating whether a patient had a dose-limiting toxicity. However, a patient may experience multiple toxicities, with each toxicity assigned an ordinal severity score. The binary response is then obtained by dichotomizing a patient's richer set of data. We contribute to the growing literature on new models to exploit this richer toxicity data, with the goal of improving the efficiency in estimating the maximum tolerated dose. Methods We develop three new, related models that make use of the total number of dose-limiting and low-level toxicities a patient experiences. We use these models to estimate the probability of having at least one dose-limiting toxicity as a function of dose. In a simulation study, we evaluate how often our models select the true maximum tolerated dose, and we compare our models with the continual reassessment method, which uses binary data. Results Across a variety of simulation settings, we find that our models compare well against the continual reassessment method in terms of selecting the true optimal dose. In particular, one of our models which uses dose-limiting and low-level toxicity counts beats or ties the other models, including the continual reassessment method, in all scenarios except the one in which the true optimal dose is the highest dose available. We also find that our models, when not selecting the true optimal dose, tend to err by picking lower, safer doses, while the continual reassessment method errs more toward toxic doses. Conclusion Using dose-limiting and low-level toxicity counts, which are easily obtained from data already routinely collected, is a promising way to improve the efficiency in finding the true maximum tolerated dose in phase I trials.

Potential uncertainty reduction in model-averaged benchmark dose estimates informed by an additional dose study.

PubMed

Shao, Kan; Small, Mitchell J

2011-10-01

A methodology is presented for assessing the information value of an additional dosage experiment in existing bioassay studies. The analysis demonstrates the potential reduction in the uncertainty of toxicity metrics derived from expanded studies, providing insights for future studies. Bayesian methods are used to fit alternative dose-response models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to compare and combine the alternative models. BMA predictions for benchmark dose (BMD) are developed, with uncertainty in these predictions used to derive the lower bound BMDL. The MCMC and BMA results provide a basis for a subsequent Monte Carlo analysis that backcasts the dosage where an additional test group would have been most beneficial in reducing the uncertainty in the BMD prediction, along with the magnitude of the expected uncertainty reduction. Uncertainty reductions are measured in terms of reduced interval widths of predicted BMD values and increases in BMDL values that occur as a result of this reduced uncertainty. The methodology is illustrated using two existing data sets for TCDD carcinogenicity, fitted with two alternative dose-response models (logistic and quantal-linear). The example shows that an additional dose at a relatively high value would have been most effective for reducing the uncertainty in BMA BMD estimates, with predicted reductions in the widths of uncertainty intervals of approximately 30%, and expected increases in BMDL values of 5-10%. The results demonstrate that dose selection for studies that subsequently inform dose-response models can benefit from consideration of how these models will be fit, combined, and interpreted. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

A study of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides at a coastal site using a modified Gaussian model and a mesoscale sea breeze model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkatesan, R.; Mathiyarasu, R.; Somayaji, K. M.

Ground level concentration and sky-shine dose due to radioactive emissions from a nuclear power plant at a coastal site have been estimated using the standard Gaussian Plume Model (GPM) and the modified GPM suggested by Misra (Atmospheric Environment 14 (1980) 397), which incorporates fumigation effect under sea breeze condition. The difference in results between these two models is analysed in order to understand their significance and errors that would occur if proper choice were not made. Radioactive sky-shine dose from 41Ar, emitted from a 100 m stack of the nuclear plant is continuously recorded by environmental gamma dose monitors and the data is used to validate the modified GPM. It is observed that the dose values increase by a factor of about 2 times than those of the standard GPM estimates, up to a downwind distance of 6 km during sea breeze hours. In order to examine the dispersion of radioactive effluents in the mesoscale range, a sea breeze model coupled with a particle dispersion model is used. The deposited activity, thyroid dose and sky-shine radioactive dose are simulated for a range of 30 km. In this range, the plume is found to deviate from its straight-line trajectory, as otherwise assumed in GPM. A secondary maximum in the concentration and the sky-shine dose is also observed in the model results. These results are quite significant in realistically estimating the area affected under any unlikely event of an accidental release of radioactivity.

Radiation dose from MDCT using Monte Carlo simulations: estimating fetal dose due to pulmonary embolism scans accounting for overscan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angel, E.; Wellnitz, C.; Goodsitt, M.; DeMarco, J.; Cagnon, C.; Ghatali, M.; Cody, D.; Stevens, D.; McCollough, C.; Primak, A.; McNitt-Gray, M.

2007-03-01

Pregnant women with shortness of breath are increasingly referred for CT Angiography to rule out Pulmonary Embolism (PE). While this exam is typically focused on the lungs, extending scan boundaries and overscan can add to the irradiated volume and have implications on fetal dose. The purpose of this work was to estimate radiation dose to the fetus when various levels of overscan were encountered. Two voxelized models of pregnant patients derived from actual patient anatomy were created based on image data. The models represent an early (< 7 weeks) and late term pregnancy (36 weeks). A previously validated Monte Carlo model of an MDCT scanner was used that takes into account physical details of the scanner. Simulated helical scans used 120 kVp, 4x5 mm beam collimation, pitch 1, and varying beam-off locations (edge of the irradiated volume) were used to represent different protocols plus overscan. Normalized dose (mGy/100mAs) was calculated for each fetus. For the early term and the late term pregnancy models, fetal dose estimates for a standard thoracic PE exam were estimated to be 0.05 and 0.3 mGy/100mAs, respectively, increasing to 9 mGy/100mAs when the beam-off location was extended to encompass the fetus. When performing PE exams to rule out PE in pregnant patients, the beam-off location may have a large effect on fetal dose, especially for late term pregnancies. Careful consideration of ending location of the x-ray beam - and not the end of image data - could result in significant reduction in radiation dose to the fetus.

Phantom-derived estimation of effective dose equivalent from X rays with and without a lead apron.

PubMed

Mateya, C F; Claycamp, H G

1997-06-01

Organ dose equivalents were measured in a humanoid phantom in order to estimate effective dose equivalent (H(E)) and effective dose (E) from low-energy x rays and in the presence or absence of a protective lead apron. Plane-parallel irradiation conditions were approximated using direct x-ray beams of 76 and 104 kVp and resulting dosimetry data was adjusted to model exposures conditions in fluoroscopy settings. Values of H(E) and E estimated under-shielded conditions were compared to the results of several recent studies that used combinations of measured and calculated dosimetry to model exposures to radiologists. While the estimates of H(E) and E without the lead apron were within 0.2 to 20% of expected values, estimates based on personal monitors worn at the (phantom) waist (underneath the apron) underestimated either H(E) or E while monitors placed at the neck (above the apron) significantly overestimated both quantities. Also, the experimentally determined H(E) and E were 1.4 to 3.3 times greater than might be estimated using recently reported "two-monitor" algorithms for the estimation of effective dose quantities. The results suggest that accurate estimation of either H(E) or E from personal monitors under conditions of partial body exposures remains problematic and is likely to require the use of multiple monitors.

Estimation of parameters of dose volume models and their confidence limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Luijk, P.; Delvigne, T. C.; Schilstra, C.; Schippers, J. M.

2003-07-01

Predictions of the normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) for the ranking of treatment plans are based on fits of dose-volume models to clinical and/or experimental data. In the literature several different fit methods are used. In this work frequently used methods and techniques to fit NTCP models to dose response data for establishing dose-volume effects, are discussed. The techniques are tested for their usability with dose-volume data and NTCP models. Different methods to estimate the confidence intervals of the model parameters are part of this study. From a critical-volume (CV) model with biologically realistic parameters a primary dataset was generated, serving as the reference for this study and describable by the NTCP model. The CV model was fitted to this dataset. From the resulting parameters and the CV model, 1000 secondary datasets were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. All secondary datasets were fitted to obtain 1000 parameter sets of the CV model. Thus the 'real' spread in fit results due to statistical spreading in the data is obtained and has been compared with estimates of the confidence intervals obtained by different methods applied to the primary dataset. The confidence limits of the parameters of one dataset were estimated using the methods, employing the covariance matrix, the jackknife method and directly from the likelihood landscape. These results were compared with the spread of the parameters, obtained from the secondary parameter sets. For the estimation of confidence intervals on NTCP predictions, three methods were tested. Firstly, propagation of errors using the covariance matrix was used. Secondly, the meaning of the width of a bundle of curves that resulted from parameters that were within the one standard deviation region in the likelihood space was investigated. Thirdly, many parameter sets and their likelihood were used to create a likelihood-weighted probability distribution of the NTCP. It is concluded that for the type of dose response data used here, only a full likelihood analysis will produce reliable results. The often-used approximations, such as the usage of the covariance matrix, produce inconsistent confidence limits on both the parameter sets and the resulting NTCP values.

Standard and reduced radiation dose liver CT images: adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction versus model-based iterative reconstruction-comparison of findings and image quality.

PubMed

Shuman, William P; Chan, Keith T; Busey, Janet M; Mitsumori, Lee M; Choi, Eunice; Koprowicz, Kent M; Kanal, Kalpana M

2014-12-01

To investigate whether reduced radiation dose liver computed tomography (CT) images reconstructed with model-based iterative reconstruction ( MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction ) might compromise depiction of clinically relevant findings or might have decreased image quality when compared with clinical standard radiation dose CT images reconstructed with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction ( ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction ). With institutional review board approval, informed consent, and HIPAA compliance, 50 patients (39 men, 11 women) were prospectively included who underwent liver CT. After a portal venous pass with ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction images, a 60% reduced radiation dose pass was added with MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction images. One reviewer scored ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction image quality and marked findings. Two additional independent reviewers noted whether marked findings were present on MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction images and assigned scores for relative conspicuity, spatial resolution, image noise, and image quality. Liver and aorta Hounsfield units and image noise were measured. Volume CT dose index and size-specific dose estimate ( SSDE size-specific dose estimate ) were recorded. Qualitative reviewer scores were summarized. Formal statistical inference for signal-to-noise ratio ( SNR signal-to-noise ratio ), contrast-to-noise ratio ( CNR contrast-to-noise ratio ), volume CT dose index, and SSDE size-specific dose estimate was made (paired t tests), with Bonferroni adjustment. Two independent reviewers identified all 136 ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction image findings (n = 272) on MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction images, scoring them as equal or better for conspicuity, spatial resolution, and image noise in 94.1% (256 of 272), 96.7% (263 of 272), and 99.3% (270 of 272), respectively. In 50 image sets, two reviewers (n = 100) scored overall image quality as sufficient or good with MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction in 99% (99 of 100). Liver SNR signal-to-noise ratio was significantly greater for MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction (10.8 ± 2.5 [standard deviation] vs 7.7 ± 1.4, P < .001); there was no difference for CNR contrast-to-noise ratio (2.5 ± 1.4 vs 2.4 ± 1.4, P = .45). For ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction and MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction , respectively, volume CT dose index was 15.2 mGy ± 7.6 versus 6.2 mGy ± 3.6; SSDE size-specific dose estimate was 16.4 mGy ± 6.6 versus 6.7 mGy ± 3.1 (P < .001). Liver CT images reconstructed with MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction may allow up to 59% radiation dose reduction compared with the dose with ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction , without compromising depiction of findings or image quality. © RSNA, 2014.

Effect of the route of administration on the biodistribution of radioiodinated OV-TL 3 F(ab')2 in experimental ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Tibben, J G; Massuger, L F; Boerman, O C; Borm, G F; Claessens, R A; Corstens, F H

1994-11-01

The effect of the route administration on the distribution of radioiodinated OV-TL 3 F(ab')2 was studied in Balb/c female mice with intraperitoneal or subcutaneous ovarian carcinoma xenografts. In the intraperitoneal tumour model in which both ascites and solid tumour deposits were present, intraperitoneal administration resulted in a lower estimated radiation dose to blood as compared with intravenous administration. In this model normalization to equal estimated radiation doses to blood for both routes of administration indicated that a twice as high estimated radiation dose can be guided to solid intraperitoneal tumour deposits following intraperitoneal administration. Evacuation of ascitic tumour cells prior to monoclonal antibody injection further increased the estimated radiation dose to solid intraperitoneal tumour deposits following intraperitoneal delivery. Following simultaneous intravenous and intraperitoneal injection of the monoclonal antibody, tissue uptake showed no relevant differences in the subcutaneous tumour model. Overall, the intraperitoneal route of administration was found to be the best choice for therapeutic delivery of iodine-131 labelled monoclonal antibodies.

Galactic and solar radiation exposure to aircrew during a solar cycle.

PubMed

Lewis, B J; Bennett, L G I; Green, A R; McCall, M J; Ellaschuk, B; Butler, A; Pierre, M

2002-01-01

An on-going investigation using a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been carried out to measure the ambient dose equivalent rate of the cosmic radiation exposure of aircrew during a solar cycle. A semi-empirical model has been derived from these data to allow for the interpolation of the dose rate for any global position. The model has been extended to an altitude of up to 32 km with further measurements made on board aircraft and several balloon flights. The effects of changing solar modulation during the solar cycle are characterised by correlating the dose rate data to different solar potential models. Through integration of the dose-rate function over a great circle flight path or between given waypoints, a Predictive Code for Aircrew Radiation Exposure (PCAIRE) has been further developed for estimation of the route dose from galactic cosmic radiation exposure. This estimate is provided in units of ambient dose equivalent as well as effective dose, based on E/H x (10) scaling functions as determined from transport code calculations with LUIN and FLUKA. This experimentally based treatment has also been compared with the CARI-6 and EPCARD codes that are derived solely from theoretical transport calculations. Using TEPC measurements taken aboard the International Space Station, ground based neutron monitoring, GOES satellite data and transport code analysis, an empirical model has been further proposed for estimation of aircrew exposure during solar particle events. This model has been compared to results obtained during recent solar flare events.

Calculations of individual doses for Techa River Cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from Mayak releases.

PubMed

Napier, Bruce A; Eslinger, Paul W; Tolstykh, Evgenia I; Vorobiova, Marina I; Tokareva, Elena E; Akhramenko, Boris N; Krivoschapov, Victor A; Degteva, Marina O

2017-11-01

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for over 29,000 Techa River Cohort members living near the Mayak production facilities from 131 I released to the atmosphere for all relevant exposure pathways. The calculational approach uses four general steps: 1) construct estimates of releases of 131 I to the air from production facilities; 2) model the transport of 131 I in the air and subsequent deposition on the ground and vegetation; 3) model the accumulation of 131 I in environmental media; and 4) calculate individualized doses. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and confidence intervals of dose time-histories. Other radionuclide contributors to thyroid dose were evaluated. The 131 I contribution was 75-99% of the thyroid dose. The mean total thyroid dose for cohort members was 193 mGy and the median was 53 mGy. Thyroid doses for about 3% of cohort members were larger than 1 Gy. About 7% of children born in 1940-1950 had doses larger than 1 Gy. The uncertainty in the 131 I dose estimates is low enough for this approach to be used in regional epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

INDOS: conversational computer codes to implement ICRP-10-10A models for estimation of internal radiation dose to man

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Killough, G.G.; Rohwer, P.S.

1974-03-01

INDOS1, INDOS2, and INDOS3 (the INDOS codes) are conversational FORTRAN IV programs, implemented for use in time-sharing mode on the ORNL PDP-10 System. These codes use ICRP10-10A models to estimate the radiation dose to an organ of the body of Reference Man resulting from the ingestion or inhalation of any one of various radionuclides. Two patterns of intake are simulated: intakes at discrete times and continuous intake at a constant rate. The IND0S codes provide tabular output of dose rate and dose vs time, graphical output of dose vs time, and punched-card output of organ burden and dose vs time.more » The models of internal dose calculation are discussed and instructions for the use of the INDOS codes are provided. The INDOS codes are available from the Radiation Shielding Information Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P. O. Box X, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830. (auth)« less

Modeling estimates of the effect of acid rain on background radiation dose.

PubMed Central

Sheppard, S C; Sheppard, M I

1988-01-01

Acid rain causes accelerated mobilization of many materials in soils. Natural and anthropogenic radionuclides, especially 226Ra and 137Cs, are among these materials. Okamoto is apparently the only researcher to date who has attempted to quantify the effect of acid rain on the "background" radiation dose to man. He estimated an increase in dose by a factor of 1.3 following a decrease in soil pH of 1 unit. We reviewed literature that described the effects of changes in pH on mobility and plant uptake of Ra and Cs. Generally, a decrease in soil pH by 1 unit will increase mobility and plant uptake by factors of 2 to 7. Thus, Okamoto's dose estimate may be too low. We applied several simulation models to confirm Okamoto's ideas, with most emphasis on an atmospherically driven soil model that predicts water and nuclide flow through a soil profile. We modeled a typical, acid-rain sensitive soil using meteorological data from Geraldton, Ontario. The results, within the range of effects on the soil expected from acidification, showed essentially direct proportionality between the mobility of the nuclides and dose. This supports some of the assumptions invoked by Okamoto. We conclude that a decrease in pH of 1 unit may increase the mobility of Ra and Cs by a factor of 2 or more. Our models predict that this will lead to similar increases in plant uptake and radiological dose to man. Although health effects following such a small increase in dose have not been statistically demonstrated, any increase in dose is probably undesirable. PMID:3203639

Bayesian analysis of physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models.

PubMed

Hack, C Eric

2006-04-17

Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) and toxicodynamic (TD) models of bromate in animals and humans would improve our ability to accurately estimate the toxic doses in humans based on available animal studies. These mathematical models are often highly parameterized and must be calibrated in order for the model predictions of internal dose to adequately fit the experimentally measured doses. Highly parameterized models are difficult to calibrate and it is difficult to obtain accurate estimates of uncertainty or variability in model parameters with commonly used frequentist calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or least squared error approaches. The Bayesian approach called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis can be used to successfully calibrate these complex models. Prior knowledge about the biological system and associated model parameters is easily incorporated in this approach in the form of prior parameter distributions, and the distributions are refined or updated using experimental data to generate posterior distributions of parameter estimates. The goal of this paper is to give the non-mathematician a brief description of the Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, how this technique is used in risk assessment, and the issues associated with this approach.

Predictive model accuracy in estimating last Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) intake from plasma and whole blood cannabinoid concentrations in chronic, daily cannabis smokers administered subchronic oral THC.

PubMed

Karschner, Erin L; Schwope, David M; Schwilke, Eugene W; Goodwin, Robert S; Kelly, Deanna L; Gorelick, David A; Huestis, Marilyn A

2012-10-01

Determining time since last cannabis/Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) exposure is important in clinical, workplace, and forensic settings. Mathematical models calculating time of last exposure from whole blood concentrations typically employ a theoretical 0.5 whole blood-to-plasma (WB/P) ratio. No studies previously evaluated predictive models utilizing empirically-derived WB/P ratios, or whole blood cannabinoid pharmacokinetics after subchronic THC dosing. Ten male chronic, daily cannabis smokers received escalating around-the-clock oral THC (40-120 mg daily) for 8 days. Cannabinoids were quantified in whole blood and plasma by two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Maximum whole blood THC occurred 3.0 h after the first oral THC dose and 103.5h (4.3 days) during multiple THC dosing. Median WB/P ratios were THC 0.63 (n=196), 11-hydroxy-THC 0.60 (n=189), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC (THCCOOH) 0.55 (n=200). Predictive models utilizing these WB/P ratios accurately estimated last cannabis exposure in 96% and 100% of specimens collected within 1-5h after a single oral THC dose and throughout multiple dosing, respectively. Models were only 60% and 12.5% accurate 12.5 and 22.5h after the last THC dose, respectively. Predictive models estimating time since last cannabis intake from whole blood and plasma cannabinoid concentrations were inaccurate during abstinence, but highly accurate during active THC dosing. THC redistribution from large cannabinoid body stores and high circulating THCCOOH concentrations create different pharmacokinetic profiles than those in less than daily cannabis smokers that were used to derive the models. Thus, the models do not accurately predict time of last THC intake in individuals consuming THC daily. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Comparison of blood flow models and acquisitions for quantitative myocardial perfusion estimation from dynamic CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, Michael; Modgil, Dimple; Branch, Kelley R.; La Riviere, Patrick J.; Alessio, Adam M.

2014-04-01

Myocardial blood flow (MBF) can be estimated from dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) cardiac CT acquisitions, leading to quantitative assessment of regional perfusion. The need for low radiation dose and the lack of consensus on MBF estimation methods motivates this study to refine the selection of acquisition protocols and models for CT-derived MBF. DCE cardiac CT acquisitions were simulated for a range of flow states (MBF = 0.5, 1, 2, 3 ml (min g)-1, cardiac output = 3, 5, 8 L min-1). Patient kinetics were generated by a mathematical model of iodine exchange incorporating numerous physiological features including heterogenenous microvascular flow, permeability and capillary contrast gradients. CT acquisitions were simulated for multiple realizations of realistic x-ray flux levels. CT acquisitions that reduce radiation exposure were implemented by varying both temporal sampling (1, 2, and 3 s sampling intervals) and tube currents (140, 70, and 25 mAs). For all acquisitions, we compared three quantitative MBF estimation methods (two-compartment model, an axially-distributed model, and the adiabatic approximation to the tissue homogeneous model) and a qualitative slope-based method. In total, over 11 000 time attenuation curves were used to evaluate MBF estimation in multiple patient and imaging scenarios. After iodine-based beam hardening correction, the slope method consistently underestimated flow by on average 47.5% and the quantitative models provided estimates with less than 6.5% average bias and increasing variance with increasing dose reductions. The three quantitative models performed equally well, offering estimates with essentially identical root mean squared error (RMSE) for matched acquisitions. MBF estimates using the qualitative slope method were inferior in terms of bias and RMSE compared to the quantitative methods. MBF estimate error was equal at matched dose reductions for all quantitative methods and range of techniques evaluated. This suggests that there is no particular advantage between quantitative estimation methods nor to performing dose reduction via tube current reduction compared to temporal sampling reduction. These data are important for optimizing implementation of cardiac dynamic CT in clinical practice and in prospective CT MBF trials.

Comparison of Data on Mutation Frequencies of Mice Caused by Radiation with Low Dose Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manabe, Yuichiro; Bando, Masako

2013-09-01

We propose low dose (LD) model, the extension of LDM model which was proposed in the previous paper [Y. Manabe et al.: J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. 81 (2012) 104004] to estimate biological damage caused by irradiation. LD model takes account of cell death effect in addition to the proliferation, apoptosis, repair which were included in LDM model. As a typical example of estimation, we apply LD model to the experiment of mutation frequency on the responses induced by the exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation. The most famous and extensive experiments are those summarized by Russell and Kelly [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 79 (1982) 539], which are known as ``mega-mouse project''. This provides us with important information of the frequencies of transmitted specific-locus mutations induced in mouse spermatogonia stem-cells. It is found that the numerical results of the mutation frequency of mice are in reasonable agreement with the experimental data: the LD model reproduces the total dose and dose rate dependence of data reasonably. In order to see such dose-rate dependence more explicitly, we introduce the dose-rate effectiveness factor (DREF). This represents a sort of dose rate dependent effect, which are to be competitive with proliferation effect of broken cells induced by irradiation.

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

2009-01-01

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a biologically based dose response (BBDR) model for arsenic induced cancer

EPA Science Inventory

We are developing a biologically based dose response (BBDR) model for arsenic carcinogenicity in order to reduce uncertainty in estimates of low dose risk by maximizing the use of relevant data on the mode of action. Expert consultation and literature review are being conducted t...

MODELING HUMAN EXPOSURES AND DOSE USING A 2-DIMENSIONAL MONTE-CARLO MODEL (SHEDS)

EPA Science Inventory

Since 1998, US EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has been developing the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model for various classes of pollutants. SHEDS is a physically-based probabilistic model intended for improving estimates of human ex...

Estimates of internal-dose equivalent from inhalation and ingestion of selected radionuclides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunning, D.E.

1982-01-01

This report presents internal radiation dose conversion factors for radionuclides of interest in environmental assessments of nuclear fuel cycles. This volume provides an updated summary of estimates of committed dose equivalent for radionuclides considered in three previous Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) reports. Intakes by inhalation and ingestion are considered. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Task Group Lung Model has been used to simulate the deposition and retention of particulate matter in the respiratory tract. Results corresponding to activity median aerodynamic diameters (AMAD) of 0.3, 1.0, and 5.0 ..mu..m are given. The gastorintestinal (GI) tract has been representedmore » by a four-segment catenary model with exponential transfer of radioactivity from one segment to the next. Retention of radionuclides in systemic organs is characterized by linear combinations of decaying exponential functions, recommended in ICRP Publication 30. The first-year annual dose rate, maximum annual dose rate, and fifty-year dose commitment per microcurie intake of each radionuclide is given for selected target organs and the effective dose equivalent. These estimates include contributions from specified source organs plus the systemic activity residing in the rest of the body; cross irradiation due to penetrating radiations has been incorporated into these estimates. 15 references.« less

Shared dosimetry error in epidemiological dose-response analyses

DOE PAGES

Stram, Daniel O.; Preston, Dale L.; Sokolnikov, Mikhail; ...

2015-03-23

Radiation dose reconstruction systems for large-scale epidemiological studies are sophisticated both in providing estimates of dose and in representing dosimetry uncertainty. For example, a computer program was used by the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study to provide 100 realizations of possible dose to study participants. The variation in realizations reflected the range of possible dose for each cohort member consistent with the data on dose determinates in the cohort. Another example is the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013 which estimates both external and internal exposures and provides multiple realizations of "possible" dose history to workers given dose determinants. This paper takesmore » up the problem of dealing with complex dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of dose in an epidemiologic analysis. In this paper we derive expected scores and the information matrix for a model used widely in radiation epidemiology, namely the linear excess relative risk (ERR) model that allows for a linear dose response (risk in relation to radiation) and distinguishes between modifiers of background rates and of the excess risk due to exposure. We show that treating the mean dose for each individual (calculated by averaging over the realizations) as if it was true dose (ignoring both shared and unshared dosimetry errors) gives asymptotically unbiased estimates (i.e. the score has expectation zero) and valid tests of the null hypothesis that the ERR slope β is zero. Although the score is unbiased the information matrix (and hence the standard errors of the estimate of β) is biased for β≠0 when ignoring errors in dose estimates, and we show how to adjust the information matrix to remove this bias, using the multiple realizations of dose. The use of these methods in the context of several studies including, the Mayak Worker Cohort, and the U.S. Atomic Veterans Study, is discussed.« less

Field size dependent mapping of medical linear accelerator radiation leakage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vũ Bezin, Jérémi; Veres, Attila; Lefkopoulos, Dimitri; Chavaudra, Jean; Deutsch, Eric; de Vathaire, Florent; Diallo, Ibrahima

2015-03-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the suitability of a graphics library based model for the assessment of linear accelerator radiation leakage. Transmission through the shielding elements was evaluated using the build-up factor corrected exponential attenuation law and the contribution from the electron guide was estimated using the approximation of a linear isotropic radioactive source. Model parameters were estimated by a fitting series of thermoluminescent dosimeter leakage measurements, achieved up to 100 cm from the beam central axis along three directions. The distribution of leakage data at the patient plane reflected the architecture of the shielding elements. Thus, the maximum leakage dose was found under the collimator when only one jaw shielded the primary beam and was about 0.08% of the dose at isocentre. Overall, we observe that the main contributor to leakage dose according to our model was the electron beam guide. Concerning the discrepancies between the measurements used to calibrate the model and the calculations from the model, the average difference was about 7%. Finally, graphics library modelling is a readily and suitable way to estimate leakage dose distribution on a personal computer. Such data could be useful for dosimetric evaluations in late effect studies.

Calculations of individual doses for Techa River Cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from Mayak releases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Napier, Bruce A.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Tolstykh, Evgenia I.

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for Techa River Cohort members living near the Mayak production facilities from 131I released to the atmosphere for all relevant exposure pathways. The calculational approach uses four general steps: 1) construct estimates of releases of 131I to the air from production facilities; 2) model the transport of 131I in the air and subsequent deposition on the ground and vegetation; 3) model the accumulation of 131I in soil, water, and food products (environmental media); and 4) calculate individual doses by matching appropriate lifestyle and consumption data for the individual to concentrations of 131I in environmental media.more » The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and confidence intervals of dose time-histories. The 131I contribution was 75-99% of the thyroid dose. The mean total thyroid dose for cohort members was 193 mGy and the median was 53 mGy. Thyroid doses for about 3% of cohort members were larger than 1 Gy. About 7% of children born in 1940-1950 had doses larger than 1 Gy. The uncertainty in the 131I dose estimates is low enough for this approach to be used in regional epidemiological studies.« less

Comparison of organ dose and dose equivalent using ray tracing of male and female Voxel phantoms to space flight phantom torso data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Qualls, Garry; Slaba, Tony; Cucinotta, Francis A.

Phantom torso experiments have been flown on the space shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) providing validation data for radiation transport models of organ dose and dose equivalents. We describe results for space radiation organ doses using a new human geometry model based on detailed Voxel phantoms models denoted for males and females as MAX (Male Adult voXel) and Fax (Female Adult voXel), respectively. These models represent the human body with much higher fidelity than the CAMERA model currently used at NASA. The MAX and FAX models were implemented for the evaluation of directional body shielding mass for over 1500 target points of major organs. Radiation exposure to solar particle events (SPE), trapped protons, and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) were assessed at each specific site in the human body by coupling space radiation transport models with the detailed body shielding mass of MAX/FAX phantom. The development of multiple-point body-shielding distributions at each organ site made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of space dose equivalents at the specific organ. For the estimate of doses to the blood forming organs (BFOs), active marrow distributions in adult were accounted at bone marrow sites over the human body. We compared the current model results to space shuttle and ISS phantom torso experiments and to calculations using the CAMERA model.

Comparison of Organ Dose and Dose Equivalent Using Ray Tracing of Male and Female Voxel Phantoms to Space Flight Phantom Torso Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Qualls, Garry D.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2008-01-01

Phantom torso experiments have been flown on the space shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) providing validation data for radiation transport models of organ dose and dose equivalents. We describe results for space radiation organ doses using a new human geometry model based on detailed Voxel phantoms models denoted for males and females as MAX (Male Adult voXel) and Fax (Female Adult voXel), respectively. These models represent the human body with much higher fidelity than the CAMERA model currently used at NASA. The MAX and FAX models were implemented for the evaluation of directional body shielding mass for over 1500 target points of major organs. Radiation exposure to solar particle events (SPE), trapped protons, and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) were assessed at each specific site in the human body by coupling space radiation transport models with the detailed body shielding mass of MAX/FAX phantom. The development of multiple-point body-shielding distributions at each organ site made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of space dose equivalents at the specific organ. For the estimate of doses to the blood forming organs (BFOs), active marrow distributions in adult were accounted at bone marrow sites over the human body. We compared the current model results to space shuttle and ISS phantom torso experiments and to calculations using the CAMERA model.

Space Radiation Organ Doses for Astronauts on Past and Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

We review methods and data used for determining astronaut organ dose equivalents on past space missions including Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, NASA-Mir, and International Space Station (ISS). Expectations for future lunar missions are also described. Physical measurements of space radiation include the absorbed dose, dose equivalent, and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra, or a related quantity, the lineal energy (y) spectra that is measured by a tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC). These data are used in conjunction with space radiation transport models to project organ specific doses used in cancer and other risk projection models. Biodosimetry data from Mir, STS, and ISS missions provide an alternative estimate of organ dose equivalents based on chromosome aberrations. The physical environments inside spacecraft are currently well understood with errors in organ dose projections estimated as less than plus or minus 15%, however understanding the biological risks from space radiation remains a difficult problem because of the many radiation types including protons, heavy ions, and secondary neutrons for which there are no human data to estimate risks. The accuracy of projections of organ dose equivalents described here must be supplemented with research on the health risks of space exposure to properly assess crew safety for exploration missions.

Testing equality and interval estimation in binary responses when high dose cannot be used first under a three-period crossover design.

PubMed

Lui, Kung-Jong; Chang, Kuang-Chao

2015-01-01

When comparing two doses of a new drug with a placebo, we may consider using a crossover design subject to the condition that the high dose cannot be administered before the low dose. Under a random-effects logistic regression model, we focus our attention on dichotomous responses when the high dose cannot be used first under a three-period crossover trial. We derive asymptotic test procedures for testing equality between treatments. We further derive interval estimators to assess the magnitude of the relative treatment effects. We employ Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the performance of these test procedures and interval estimators in a variety of situations. We use the data taken as a part of trial comparing two different doses of an analgesic with a placebo for the relief of primary dysmenorrhea to illustrate the use of the proposed test procedures and estimators.

Exposure time independent summary statistics for assessment of drug dependent cell line growth inhibition.

PubMed

Falgreen, Steffen; Laursen, Maria Bach; Bødker, Julie Støve; Kjeldsen, Malene Krag; Schmitz, Alexander; Nyegaard, Mette; Johnsen, Hans Erik; Dybkær, Karen; Bøgsted, Martin

2014-06-05

In vitro generated dose-response curves of human cancer cell lines are widely used to develop new therapeutics. The curves are summarised by simplified statistics that ignore the conventionally used dose-response curves' dependency on drug exposure time and growth kinetics. This may lead to suboptimal exploitation of data and biased conclusions on the potential of the drug in question. Therefore we set out to improve the dose-response assessments by eliminating the impact of time dependency. First, a mathematical model for drug induced cell growth inhibition was formulated and used to derive novel dose-response curves and improved summary statistics that are independent of time under the proposed model. Next, a statistical analysis workflow for estimating the improved statistics was suggested consisting of 1) nonlinear regression models for estimation of cell counts and doubling times, 2) isotonic regression for modelling the suggested dose-response curves, and 3) resampling based method for assessing variation of the novel summary statistics. We document that conventionally used summary statistics for dose-response experiments depend on time so that fast growing cell lines compared to slowly growing ones are considered overly sensitive. The adequacy of the mathematical model is tested for doxorubicin and found to fit real data to an acceptable degree. Dose-response data from the NCI60 drug screen were used to illustrate the time dependency and demonstrate an adjustment correcting for it. The applicability of the workflow was illustrated by simulation and application on a doxorubicin growth inhibition screen. The simulations show that under the proposed mathematical model the suggested statistical workflow results in unbiased estimates of the time independent summary statistics. Variance estimates of the novel summary statistics are used to conclude that the doxorubicin screen covers a significant diverse range of responses ensuring it is useful for biological interpretations. Time independent summary statistics may aid the understanding of drugs' action mechanism on tumour cells and potentially renew previous drug sensitivity evaluation studies.

Exposure time independent summary statistics for assessment of drug dependent cell line growth inhibition

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In vitro generated dose-response curves of human cancer cell lines are widely used to develop new therapeutics. The curves are summarised by simplified statistics that ignore the conventionally used dose-response curves’ dependency on drug exposure time and growth kinetics. This may lead to suboptimal exploitation of data and biased conclusions on the potential of the drug in question. Therefore we set out to improve the dose-response assessments by eliminating the impact of time dependency. Results First, a mathematical model for drug induced cell growth inhibition was formulated and used to derive novel dose-response curves and improved summary statistics that are independent of time under the proposed model. Next, a statistical analysis workflow for estimating the improved statistics was suggested consisting of 1) nonlinear regression models for estimation of cell counts and doubling times, 2) isotonic regression for modelling the suggested dose-response curves, and 3) resampling based method for assessing variation of the novel summary statistics. We document that conventionally used summary statistics for dose-response experiments depend on time so that fast growing cell lines compared to slowly growing ones are considered overly sensitive. The adequacy of the mathematical model is tested for doxorubicin and found to fit real data to an acceptable degree. Dose-response data from the NCI60 drug screen were used to illustrate the time dependency and demonstrate an adjustment correcting for it. The applicability of the workflow was illustrated by simulation and application on a doxorubicin growth inhibition screen. The simulations show that under the proposed mathematical model the suggested statistical workflow results in unbiased estimates of the time independent summary statistics. Variance estimates of the novel summary statistics are used to conclude that the doxorubicin screen covers a significant diverse range of responses ensuring it is useful for biological interpretations. Conclusion Time independent summary statistics may aid the understanding of drugs’ action mechanism on tumour cells and potentially renew previous drug sensitivity evaluation studies. PMID:24902483

Estimated dose rates to members of the public from external exposure to patients with 131I thyroid treatment

DOE PAGES

Dewji, S.; Bellamy, M.; Hertel, N.; ...

2015-03-25

The purpose of this study is to estimate dose rates that may result from exposure to patients who had been administered iodine-131 ( 131I) as part of medical therapy were calculated. These effective dose rate estimates were compared with simplified assumptions under United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 8.39, which does not consider body tissue attenuation nor time-dependent redistribution and excretion of the administered 131I. Methods: Dose rates were estimated for members of the public potentially exposed to external irradiation from patients recently treated with 131I. Tissue attenuation and iodine biokinetics were considered in the patient in a largermore » comprehensive effort to improve external dose rate estimates. The external dose rate estimates are based on Monte Carlo simulations using the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs (PIMAL), previously developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. PIMAL was employed to model the relative positions of the 131I patient and members of the public in three exposure scenarios: (1) traveling on a bus in a total of six seated or standing permutations, (2) two nursing home cases where a caregiver is seated at 30 cm from the patient’s bedside and a nursing home resident seated 250 cm away from the patient in an adjacent bed, and (3) two hotel cases where the patient and a guest are in adjacent rooms with beds on opposite sides of the common wall, with the patient and guest both in bed and either seated back-to-back or lying head to head. The biokinetic model predictions of the retention and distribution of 131I in the patient assumed a single voiding of urinary bladder contents that occurred during the trip at 2, 4, or 8 h after 131I administration for the public transportation cases, continuous first-order voiding for the nursing home cases, and regular periodic voiding at 4, 8, or 12 h after administration for the hotel room cases. Organ specific activities of 131I in the thyroid, bladder, and combined remaining tissues were calculated as a function of time after administration. Exposures to members of the public were considered for 131I patients with normal thyroid uptake (peak thyroid uptake of ~27% of administered 131I), differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC, 5% uptake), and hyperthyroidism (80% uptake). Results: The scenario with the patient seated behind the member of the public yielded the highest dose rate estimate of seated public transportation exposure cases. The dose rate to the adjacent room guest was highest for the exposure scenario in which the hotel guest and patient are seated by a factor of ~4 for the normal and differentiated thyroid cancer uptake cases and by a factor of ~3 for the hyperthyroid case. Conclusions: It was determined that for all modeled cases, the DTC case yielded the lowest external dose rates, whereas the hyperthyroid case yielded the highest dose rates. In estimating external dose to members of the public from patients with 131I therapy, consideration must be given to (patient- and case-specific) administered 131I activities and duration of exposure for a more complete estimate. The method implemented here included a detailed calculation model, which provides a means to determine dose rate estimates for a range of scenarios. Finally, the method was demonstrated for variations of three scenarios, showing how dose rates are expected to vary with uptake, voiding pattern, and patient location.« less

Estimated dose rates to members of the public from external exposure to patients with 131I thyroid treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dewji, S.; Bellamy, M.; Hertel, N.

The purpose of this study is to estimate dose rates that may result from exposure to patients who had been administered iodine-131 ( 131I) as part of medical therapy were calculated. These effective dose rate estimates were compared with simplified assumptions under United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 8.39, which does not consider body tissue attenuation nor time-dependent redistribution and excretion of the administered 131I. Methods: Dose rates were estimated for members of the public potentially exposed to external irradiation from patients recently treated with 131I. Tissue attenuation and iodine biokinetics were considered in the patient in a largermore » comprehensive effort to improve external dose rate estimates. The external dose rate estimates are based on Monte Carlo simulations using the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs (PIMAL), previously developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. PIMAL was employed to model the relative positions of the 131I patient and members of the public in three exposure scenarios: (1) traveling on a bus in a total of six seated or standing permutations, (2) two nursing home cases where a caregiver is seated at 30 cm from the patient’s bedside and a nursing home resident seated 250 cm away from the patient in an adjacent bed, and (3) two hotel cases where the patient and a guest are in adjacent rooms with beds on opposite sides of the common wall, with the patient and guest both in bed and either seated back-to-back or lying head to head. The biokinetic model predictions of the retention and distribution of 131I in the patient assumed a single voiding of urinary bladder contents that occurred during the trip at 2, 4, or 8 h after 131I administration for the public transportation cases, continuous first-order voiding for the nursing home cases, and regular periodic voiding at 4, 8, or 12 h after administration for the hotel room cases. Organ specific activities of 131I in the thyroid, bladder, and combined remaining tissues were calculated as a function of time after administration. Exposures to members of the public were considered for 131I patients with normal thyroid uptake (peak thyroid uptake of ~27% of administered 131I), differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC, 5% uptake), and hyperthyroidism (80% uptake). Results: The scenario with the patient seated behind the member of the public yielded the highest dose rate estimate of seated public transportation exposure cases. The dose rate to the adjacent room guest was highest for the exposure scenario in which the hotel guest and patient are seated by a factor of ~4 for the normal and differentiated thyroid cancer uptake cases and by a factor of ~3 for the hyperthyroid case. Conclusions: It was determined that for all modeled cases, the DTC case yielded the lowest external dose rates, whereas the hyperthyroid case yielded the highest dose rates. In estimating external dose to members of the public from patients with 131I therapy, consideration must be given to (patient- and case-specific) administered 131I activities and duration of exposure for a more complete estimate. The method implemented here included a detailed calculation model, which provides a means to determine dose rate estimates for a range of scenarios. Finally, the method was demonstrated for variations of three scenarios, showing how dose rates are expected to vary with uptake, voiding pattern, and patient location.« less

Estimation of maximum tolerated dose for long-term bioassays from acute lethal dose and structure by QSAR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gombar, V.K.; Enslein, K.; Hart, J.B.

1991-09-01

A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model has been developed to estimate maximum tolerated doses (MTD) from structural features of chemicals and the corresponding oral acute lethal doses (LD50) as determined in male rats. The model is based on a set of 269 diverse chemicals which have been tested under the National Cancer Institute/National Toxicology Program (NCI/NTP) protocols. The rat oral LD50 value was the strongest predictor. Additionally, 22 structural descriptors comprising nine substructural MOLSTAC(c) keys, three molecular connectivity indices, and sigma charges on 10 molecular fragments were identified as endpoint predictors. The model explains 76% of the variance and ismore » significant (F = 35.7) at p less than 0.0001 with a standard error of the estimate of 0.40 in the log (1/mol) units used in Hansch-type equations. Cross-validation showed that the difference between the average deleted residual square (0.179) and the model residual square (0.160) was not significant (t = 0.98).« less

Median infectious dose (ID₅₀) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus isolate MN-184 via aerosol exposure.

PubMed

Cutler, Timothy D; Wang, Chong; Hoff, Steven J; Kittawornrat, Apisit; Zimmerman, Jeffrey J

2011-08-05

The median infectious dose (ID(50)) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus isolate MN-184 was determined for aerosol exposure. In 7 replicates, 3-week-old pigs (n=58) respired 10l of airborne PRRS virus from a dynamic aerosol toroid (DAT) maintained at -4°C. Thereafter, pigs were housed in isolation and monitored for evidence of infection. Infection occurred at virus concentrations too low to quantify by microinfectivity assays. Therefore, exposure dose was determined using two indirect methods ("calculated" and "theoretical"). "Calculated" virus dose was derived from the concentration of rhodamine B monitored over the exposure sequence. "Theoretical" virus dose was based on the continuous stirred-tank reactor model. The ID(50) estimate was modeled on the proportion of pigs that became infected using the probit and logit link functions for both "calculated" and "theoretical" exposure doses. Based on "calculated" doses, the probit and logit ID(50) estimates were 1 × 10(-0.13)TCID(50) and 1 × 10(-0.14)TCID(50), respectively. Based on "theoretical" doses, the probit and logit ID(50) were 1 × 10(0.26)TCID(50) and 1 × 10(0.24)TCID(50), respectively. For each point estimate, the 95% confidence interval included the other three point estimates. The results indicated that MN-184 was far more infectious than PRRS virus isolate VR-2332, the only other PRRS virus isolate for which ID(50) has been estimated for airborne exposure. Since aerosol ID(50) estimates are available for only these two isolates, it is uncertain whether one or both of these isolates represent the normal range of PRRS virus infectivity by this route. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relationship between organ dose and patient size in tube current modulated adult thoracic CT scans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatonabadi, Maryam; Zhang, Di; Yang, Jeffrey; DeMarco, John J.; Cagnon, Chris C.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.

2012-03-01

Recently published AAPM Task Group 204 developed conversion coefficients that use scanner reported CTDIvol to estimate dose to the center of patient undergoing fixed tube current body exam. However, most performed CT exams use TCM to reduce dose to patients. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between organ dose and a variety of patient size metrics in adult chest CT scans that use tube current modulation (TCM). Monte Carlo simulations were performed for 32 voxelized models with contoured lungs and glandular breasts tissue, consisting of females and males. These simulations made use of patient's actual TCM data to estimate organ dose. Using image data, different size metrics were calculated, these measurements were all performed on one slice, at the level of patient's nipple. Estimated doses were normalized by scanner-reported CTDIvol and plotted versus different metrics. CTDIvol values were plotted versus different metrics to look at scanner's output versus size. The metrics performed similarly in terms of correlating with organ dose. Looking at each gender separately, for male models normalized lung dose showed a better linear correlation (r2=0.91) with effective diameter, while female models showed higher correlation (r2=0.59) with the anterior-posterior measurement. There was essentially no correlation observed between size and CTDIvol-normalized breast dose. However, a linear relationship was observed between absolute breast dose and size. Dose to lungs and breasts were consistently higher in females with similar size as males which could be due to shape and composition differences between genders in the thoracic region.

Quantifying Cancer Risk from Radiation.

PubMed

Keil, Alexander P; Richardson, David B

2017-12-06

Complex statistical models fitted to data from studies of atomic bomb survivors are used to estimate the human health effects of ionizing radiation exposures. We describe and illustrate an approach to estimate population risks from ionizing radiation exposure that relaxes many assumptions about radiation-related mortality. The approach draws on developments in methods for causal inference. The results offer a different way to quantify radiation's effects and show that conventional estimates of the population burden of excess cancer at high radiation doses are driven strongly by projecting outside the range of current data. Summary results obtained using the proposed approach are similar in magnitude to those obtained using conventional methods, although estimates of radiation-related excess cancers differ for many age, sex, and dose groups. At low doses relevant to typical exposures, the strength of evidence in data is surprisingly weak. Statements regarding human health effects at low doses rely strongly on the use of modeling assumptions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimation of Effective Doses for Radiation Cancer Risks on ISS, Lunar, and Mars Missions with Space Radiation Measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, M.Y.; Cucinotta, F.A.

2005-01-01

Radiation protection practices define the effective dose as a weighted sum of equivalent dose over major sites for radiation cancer risks. Since a crew personnel dosimeter does not make direct measurement of effective dose, it has been estimated with skin-dose measurements and radiation transport codes for ISS and STS missions. The Phantom Torso Experiment (PTE) of NASA s Operational Radiation Protection Program has provided the actual flight measurements of active and passive dosimeters which were placed throughout the phantom on STS-91 mission for 10 days and on ISS Increment 2 mission. For the PTE, the variation in organ doses, which is resulted by the absorption and the changes in radiation quality with tissue shielding, was considered by measuring doses at many tissue sites and at several critical body organs including brain, colon, heart, stomach, thyroid, and skins. These measurements have been compared with the organ dose calculations obtained from the transport models. Active TEPC measurements of lineal energy spectra at the surface of the PTE also provided the direct comparison of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) or trapped proton dose and dose equivalent. It is shown that orienting the phantom body as actual in ISS is needed for the direct comparison of the transport models to the ISS data. One of the most important observations for organ dose equivalent of effective dose estimates on ISS is the fractional contribution from trapped protons and GCR. We show that for most organs over 80% is from GCR. The improved estimation of effective doses for radiation cancer risks will be made with the resultant tissue weighting factors and the modified codes.

Impact of the NTCP modeling on medical decision to select eligible patient for proton therapy: the usefulness of EUD as an indicator to rank modern photon vs proton treatment plans.

PubMed

Chaikh, Abdulhamid; Calugaru, Valentin; Bondiau, Pierre-Yves; Thariat, Juliette; Balosso, Jacques

2018-06-07

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP)-based radiobiological models on the estimated risk for late radiation lung damages. The second goal is to propose a medical decision-making approach to select the eligible patient for particle therapy. 14 pediatric patients undergoing cranio-spinal irradiation were evaluated. For each patient, two treatment plans were generated using photon and proton therapy with the same dose prescriptions. Late radiation damage to lung was estimated using three NTCP concepts: the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman, the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the mean lung dose according to the quantitative analysis of normal tissue effects in the clinic QUANTEC review. Wilcoxon paired test was used to calculate p-value. Proton therapy achieved lower lung EUD (Gy). The average NTCP values were significantly lower with proton plans, p < 0.05, using the three NTCP concepts. However, applying the same TD 50/5 using radiobiological models to compare NTCP from proton and photon therapy, the ΔNTCP was not a convincing method to measure the potential benefit of proton therapy. Late radiation pneumonitis estimated from the mean lung dose model correlated with QUANTEC data better. treatment effectiveness assessed on NTCP reduction depends on radiobiological predictions and parameters used as inputs for in silico evaluation. Since estimates of absolute NTCP values from LKB and GN models are imprecise due to EUD ≪ TD 50/5 , a reduction of the EUD value with proton plans would better predict a reduction of dose/toxicity. The EUD concept appears as a robust radiobiological surrogate of the dose distribution to select the optimal patient's plan.

Prediction of Therapy Tumor-Absorbed Dose Estimates in I-131 Radioimmunotherapy Using Tracer Data Via a Mixed-Model Fit to Time Activity

PubMed Central

Koral, Kenneth F.; Avram, Anca M.; Kaminski, Mark S.; Dewaraja, Yuni K.

2012-01-01

Abstract Background For individualized treatment planning in radioimmunotherapy (RIT), correlations must be established between tracer-predicted and therapy-delivered absorbed doses. The focus of this work was to investigate this correlation for tumors. Methods The study analyzed 57 tumors in 19 follicular lymphoma patients treated with I-131 tositumomab and imaged with SPECT/CT multiple times after tracer and therapy administrations. Instead of the typical least-squares fit to a single tumor's measured time-activity data, estimation was accomplished via a biexponential mixed model in which the curves from multiple subjects were jointly estimated. The tumor-absorbed dose estimates were determined by patient-specific Monte Carlo calculation. Results The mixed model gave realistic tumor time-activity fits that showed the expected uptake and clearance phases even with noisy data or missing time points. Correlation between tracer and therapy tumor-residence times (r=0.98; p<0.0001) and correlation between tracer-predicted and therapy-delivered mean tumor-absorbed doses (r=0.86; p<0.0001) were very high. The predicted and delivered absorbed doses were within±25% (or within±75 cGy) for 80% of tumors. Conclusions The mixed-model approach is feasible for fitting tumor time-activity data in RIT treatment planning when individual least-squares fitting is not possible due to inadequate sampling points. The good correlation between predicted and delivered tumor doses demonstrates the potential of using a pretherapy tracer study for tumor dosimetry-based treatment planning in RIT. PMID:22947086

Estimation Of Organ Doses From Solar Particle Events For Future Space Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2006-01-01

Radiation protection practices define the effective dose as a weighted sum of equivalent dose over major organ sites for radiation cancer risks. Since a crew personnel dosimeter does not make direct measurement of the effective dose, it has been estimated with skin-dose measurements and radiation transport codes for ISS and STS missions. If sufficient protection is not provided near solar maximum, the radiation risk can be significant due to exposure to sporadic solar particle events (SPEs) as well as to the continuous galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) on future exploratory-class and long-duration missions. For accurate estimates of overall fatal cancer risks from SPEs, the specific doses at various blood forming organs (BFOs) were considered, because proton fluences and doses vary considerably across marrow regions. Previous estimates of BFO doses from SPEs have used an average body-shielding distribution for the bone marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). With the development of an 82-point body-shielding distribution at BFOs, the mean and variance of SPE doses in the major active marrow regions (head and neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis and thighs) will be presented. Consideration of the detailed distribution of bone marrow sites is one of many requirements to improve the estimation of effective doses for radiation cancer risks.

Comparing risk estimates following diagnostic CT radiation exposures employing different methodological approaches.

PubMed

Kashcheev, Valery V; Pryakhin, Evgeny A; Menyaylo, Alexander N; Chekin, Sergey Yu; Ivanov, Viktor K

2014-06-01

The current study has two aims: the first is to quantify the difference between radiation risks estimated with the use of organ or effective doses, particularly when planning pediatric and adult computed tomography (CT) examinations. The second aim is to determine the method of calculating organ doses and cancer risk using dose-length product (DLP) for typical routine CT examinations. In both cases, the radiation-induced cancer risks from medical CT examinations were evaluated as a function of gender and age. Lifetime attributable risk values from CT scanning were estimated with the use of ICRP (Publication 103) risk models and Russian national medical statistics data. For populations under the age of 50 y, the risk estimates based on organ doses usually are 30% higher than estimates based on effective doses. In older populations, the difference can be up to a factor of 2.5. The typical distributions of organ doses were defined for Chest Routine, Abdominal Routine, and Head Routine examinations. The distributions of organ doses were dependent on the anatomical region of scanning. The most exposed organs/tissues were thyroid, breast, esophagus, and lungs in cases of Chest Routine examination; liver, stomach, colon, ovaries, and bladder in cases of Abdominal Routine examination; and brain for Head Routine examinations. The conversion factors for calculation of typical organ doses or tissues at risk using DLP were determined. Lifetime attributable risk of cancer estimated with organ doses calculated from DLP was compared with the risk estimated on the basis of organ doses measured with the use of silicon photodiode dosimeters. The estimated difference in LAR is less than 29%.

TU-EF-204-01: Accurate Prediction of CT Tube Current Modulation: Estimating Tube Current Modulation Schemes for Voxelized Patient Models Used in Monte Carlo Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMillan, K; Bostani, M; McNitt-Gray, M

2015-06-15

Purpose: Most patient models used in Monte Carlo-based estimates of CT dose, including computational phantoms, do not have tube current modulation (TCM) data associated with them. While not a problem for fixed tube current simulations, this is a limitation when modeling the effects of TCM. Therefore, the purpose of this work was to develop and validate methods to estimate TCM schemes for any voxelized patient model. Methods: For 10 patients who received clinically-indicated chest (n=5) and abdomen/pelvis (n=5) scans on a Siemens CT scanner, both CT localizer radiograph (“topogram”) and image data were collected. Methods were devised to estimate themore » complete x-y-z TCM scheme using patient attenuation data: (a) available in the Siemens CT localizer radiograph/topogram itself (“actual-topo”) and (b) from a simulated topogram (“sim-topo”) derived from a projection of the image data. For comparison, the actual TCM scheme was extracted from the projection data of each patient. For validation, Monte Carlo simulations were performed using each TCM scheme to estimate dose to the lungs (chest scans) and liver (abdomen/pelvis scans). Organ doses from simulations using the actual TCM were compared to those using each of the estimated TCM methods (“actual-topo” and “sim-topo”). Results: For chest scans, the average differences between doses estimated using actual TCM schemes and estimated TCM schemes (“actual-topo” and “sim-topo”) were 3.70% and 4.98%, respectively. For abdomen/pelvis scans, the average differences were 5.55% and 6.97%, respectively. Conclusion: Strong agreement between doses estimated using actual and estimated TCM schemes validates the methods for simulating Siemens topograms and converting attenuation data into TCM schemes. This indicates that the methods developed in this work can be used to accurately estimate TCM schemes for any patient model or computational phantom, whether a CT localizer radiograph is available or not. Funding Support: NIH Grant R01-EB017095; Disclosures - Michael McNitt-Gray: Institutional Research Agreement, Siemens AG; Research Support, Siemens AG; Consultant, Flaherty Sensabaugh Bonasso PLLC; Consultant, Fulbright and Jaworski; Disclosures - Cynthia McCollough: Research Grant, Siemens Healthcare.« less

The impact of variation in scaling factors on the estimation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models include values for metabolic rate parameters extrapolated from in vitro metabolism studies using scaling factors such as mg of microsomal protein per gram of liver (MPPGL) and liver mass (FVL). Variation in scaling factor values impacts metabolic rate parameter estimates (Vmax) and hence estimates of internal dose used in dose response analysis. The impacts of adult human variation in MPPGL and FVL on estimates of internal dose were assessed using a human PBPK model for BDCM for several internal dose metrics for two exposure scenarios (single 0.25 liter drink of water or 10 minute shower) under plausible (5 micrograms/L) and high level (20 micrograms/L) water concentrations. For both concentrations, all internal dose metrics were changed less than 5% for the showering scenario (combined inhalation and dermal exposure). In contrast, a 27-fold variation in area under the curve for BDCM in venous blood was observed at both oral exposure concentrations, whereas total amount of BDCM metabolized in liver was relatively unchanged. This analysis demonstrates that variability in the scaling factors used for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) for metabolic rate parameters can have a significant route-dependent impact on estimates of internal dose under environmentally relevant exposure scenarios. This indicates the need to evaluate both uncertainty and variability for scaling factors used for IVIVE. Sca

APPLICATION OF THE EXPOSURE DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL (ERDEM) TO ASSESSMENT OF DERMAL EXPOSURE IN THE RAT TO MALATHION

EPA Science Inventory

APPLICATION OF THE EXPOSURE DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL (ERDEM) TO ASSESSMENT OF DERMAL EXPOSURE IN THE RAT TO MALATHION.
Evans, M.V1., Power, F.W2., Dary, C.C2., Tornero-Velez, R2., and Blancato, J.N2.
1 NHEERL, US EPA, ORD, ETD, RTP, NC; 2 NERL, US EPA, ORD, EDRB, LV, NV
Re...

Functional Data Analysis in NTCP Modeling: A New Method to Explore the Radiation Dose-Volume Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benadjaoud, Mohamed Amine, E-mail: mohamedamine.benadjaoud@gustaveroussy.fr; Université Paris sud, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre; Institut Gustave Roussy, Villejuif

2014-11-01

Purpose/Objective(s): To describe a novel method to explore radiation dose-volume effects. Functional data analysis is used to investigate the information contained in differential dose-volume histograms. The method is applied to the normal tissue complication probability modeling of rectal bleeding (RB) for patients irradiated in the prostatic bed by 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Kernel density estimation was used to estimate the individual probability density functions from each of the 141 rectum differential dose-volume histograms. Functional principal component analysis was performed on the estimated probability density functions to explore the variation modes in the dose distribution. The functional principalmore » components were then tested for association with RB using logistic regression adapted to functional covariates (FLR). For comparison, 3 other normal tissue complication probability models were considered: the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman model, logistic model based on standard dosimetric parameters (LM), and logistic model based on multivariate principal component analysis (PCA). Results: The incidence rate of grade ≥2 RB was 14%. V{sub 65Gy} was the most predictive factor for the LM (P=.058). The best fit for the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman model was obtained with n=0.12, m = 0.17, and TD50 = 72.6 Gy. In PCA and FLR, the components that describe the interdependence between the relative volumes exposed at intermediate and high doses were the most correlated to the complication. The FLR parameter function leads to a better understanding of the volume effect by including the treatment specificity in the delivered mechanistic information. For RB grade ≥2, patients with advanced age are significantly at risk (odds ratio, 1.123; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.22), and the fits of the LM, PCA, and functional principal component analysis models are significantly improved by including this clinical factor. Conclusion: Functional data analysis provides an attractive method for flexibly estimating the dose-volume effect for normal tissues in external radiation therapy.« less

Nonlinear mixed effects modelling approach in investigating phenobarbital pharmacokinetic interactions in epileptic patients.

PubMed

Vučićević, Katarina; Jovanović, Marija; Golubović, Bojana; Kovačević, Sandra Vezmar; Miljković, Branislava; Martinović, Žarko; Prostran, Milica

2015-02-01

The present study aimed to establish population pharmacokinetic model for phenobarbital (PB), examining and quantifying the magnitude of PB interactions with other antiepileptic drugs concomitantly used and to demonstrate its use for individualization of PB dosing regimen in adult epileptic patients. In total 205 PB concentrations were obtained during routine clinical monitoring of 136 adult epilepsy patients. PB steady state concentrations were measured by homogeneous enzyme immunoassay. Nonlinear mixed effects modelling (NONMEM) was applied for data analyses and evaluation of the final model. According to the final population model, significant determinant of apparent PB clearance (CL/F) was daily dose of concomitantly given valproic acid (VPA). Typical value of PB CL/F for final model was estimated at 0.314 l/h. Based on the final model, co-therapy with usual VPA dose of 1000 mg/day, resulted in PB CL/F average decrease of about 25 %, while 2000 mg/day leads to an average 50 % decrease in PB CL/F. Developed population PB model may be used in estimating individual CL/F for adult epileptic patients and could be applied for individualizing dosing regimen taking into account dose-dependent effect of concomitantly given VPA.

Non-Targeted Effects and the Dose Response for Heavy Ion Tumorigenesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappelli, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

BACKGROUND: There is no human epidemiology data available to estimate the heavy ion cancer risks experienced by astronauts in space. Studies of tumor induction in mice are a necessary step to estimate risks to astronauts. Previous experimental data can be better utilized to model dose response for heavy ion tumorigenesis and plan future low dose studies. DOSE RESPONSE MODELS: The Harderian Gland data of Alpen et al.[1-3] was re-analyzed [4] using non-linear least square regression. The data set measured the induction of Harderian gland tumors in mice by high-energy protons, helium, neon, iron, niobium and lanthanum with LET s ranging from 0.4 to 950 keV/micron. We were able to strengthen the individual ion models by combining data for all ions into a model that relates both radiation dose and LET for the ion to tumor prevalence. We compared models based on Targeted Effects (TE) to one motivated by Non-targeted Effects (NTE) that included a bystander term that increased tumor induction at low doses non-linearly. When comparing fitted models to the experimental data, we considered the adjusted R2, the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to test for Goodness of fit.In the adjusted R2test, the model with the highest R2values provides a better fit to the available data. In the AIC and BIC tests, the model with the smaller values of the summary value provides the better fit. The non-linear NTE models fit the combined data better than the TE models that are linear at low doses. We evaluated the differences in the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and found the NTE model provides a higher RBE at low dose compared to the TE model. POWER ANALYSIS: The final NTE model estimates were used to simulate example data to consider the design of new experiments to detect NTE at low dose for validation. Power and sample sizes were calculated for a variety of radiation qualities including some not considered in the Harderian Gland data set and with different background tumor incidences. We considered different experimental designs with varying number of doses and varying low doses dependant on the LET of the radiation. The optimal design to detect a NTE for an individual ion had 4 doses equally spaced below a maximal dose where bending due to cell sterilization was < 2%. For example at 100 keV/micron we would irradiate at 0.03 Gy, 0.065 Gy, 0.13 Gy, and 0.26 Gy and require 850 mice including a control dose for a sensitivity to detect NTE with 80% power. Sample sizes could be improved by combining ions similar to the methods used with the Harderian Gland data.

Accounting for shared and unshared dosimetric uncertainties in the dose response for ultrasound-detected thyroid nodules after exposure to radioactive fallout.

PubMed

Land, Charles E; Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Bouville, André; Beck, Harold; Luckyanov, Nicholas; Weinstock, Robert M; Simon, Steven L

2015-02-01

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point "best estimates". In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic study considering all known sources of shared and unshared errors in dose estimation and using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for analysis of the dose response.

A kinematic model to estimate effective dose of radioactive substances in a human body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, S.; Yamada, T.

2013-05-01

The great earthquake occurred in the north-east area in Japan in March 11, 2011. Facility system to control Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station was completely destroyed by the following giant tsunami. From the damaged reactor containment vessels, an amount of radioactive substances had leaked and diffused in the vicinity of this station. Radiological internal exposure became a serious social issue both in Japan and all over the world. The present study provides an easily understandable, kinematic-based model to estimate the effective dose of radioactive substances in a human body by simplifying the complicated mechanism of metabolism. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has developed a sophisticated model, which is well-known as a standard method to calculate the effective dose for radiological protection. However, owing to that ICRP method is fine, it is rather difficult for non-professional people of radiology to gasp the whole images of the movement and the influences of radioactive substances in a human body. Therefore, in the present paper we propose a newly-derived and easily-understandable model to estimate the effective dose. The present method is very similar with the traditional and conventional tank model in hydrology. Ingestion flux of radioactive substances corresponds to rain intensity and the storage of radioactive substances to the water storage in a basin in runoff analysis. The key of the present method is to estimate the energy radiated in the radioactive nuclear disintegration of an atom by using classical theory of β decay and special relativity for various kinds of radioactive atoms. The parameters used in this model are only physical half-time and biological half-time, and there are no operational parameters or coefficients to adjust our theoretical runoff to ICRP. Figure shows the time-varying effective dose with ingestion duration, and we can confirm the validity of our model. The time-varying effective dose with ingestion duration

An update on modeling dose-response relationships: Accounting for correlated data structure and heterogeneous error variance in linear and nonlinear mixed models.

PubMed

Gonçalves, M A D; Bello, N M; Dritz, S S; Tokach, M D; DeRouchey, J M; Woodworth, J C; Goodband, R D

2016-05-01

Advanced methods for dose-response assessments are used to estimate the minimum concentrations of a nutrient that maximizes a given outcome of interest, thereby determining nutritional requirements for optimal performance. Contrary to standard modeling assumptions, experimental data often present a design structure that includes correlations between observations (i.e., blocking, nesting, etc.) as well as heterogeneity of error variances; either can mislead inference if disregarded. Our objective is to demonstrate practical implementation of linear and nonlinear mixed models for dose-response relationships accounting for correlated data structure and heterogeneous error variances. To illustrate, we modeled data from a randomized complete block design study to evaluate the standardized ileal digestible (SID) Trp:Lys ratio dose-response on G:F of nursery pigs. A base linear mixed model was fitted to explore the functional form of G:F relative to Trp:Lys ratios and assess model assumptions. Next, we fitted 3 competing dose-response mixed models to G:F, namely a quadratic polynomial (QP) model, a broken-line linear (BLL) ascending model, and a broken-line quadratic (BLQ) ascending model, all of which included heteroskedastic specifications, as dictated by the base model. The GLIMMIX procedure of SAS (version 9.4) was used to fit the base and QP models and the NLMIXED procedure was used to fit the BLL and BLQ models. We further illustrated the use of a grid search of initial parameter values to facilitate convergence and parameter estimation in nonlinear mixed models. Fit between competing dose-response models was compared using a maximum likelihood-based Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The QP, BLL, and BLQ models fitted on G:F of nursery pigs yielded BIC values of 353.7, 343.4, and 345.2, respectively, thus indicating a better fit of the BLL model. The BLL breakpoint estimate of the SID Trp:Lys ratio was 16.5% (95% confidence interval [16.1, 17.0]). Problems with the estimation process rendered results from the BLQ model questionable. Importantly, accounting for heterogeneous variance enhanced inferential precision as the breadth of the confidence interval for the mean breakpoint decreased by approximately 44%. In summary, the article illustrates the use of linear and nonlinear mixed models for dose-response relationships accounting for heterogeneous residual variances, discusses important diagnostics and their implications for inference, and provides practical recommendations for computational troubleshooting.

Dosimetry in x-ray-based breast imaging

PubMed Central

Dance, David R; Sechopoulos, Ioannis

2016-01-01

The estimation of the mean glandular dose to the breast (MGD) for x-ray based imaging modalities forms an essential part of quality control and is needed for risk estimation and for system design and optimisation. This review considers the development of methods for estimating the MGD for mammography, digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and dedicated breast CT (DBCT). Almost all of the methodology used employs Monte Carlo calculated conversion factors to relate the measurable quantity, generally the incident air kerma, to the MGD. After a review of the size and composition of the female breast, the various mathematical models used are discussed, with particular emphasis on models for mammography. These range from simple geometrical shapes, to the more recent complex models based on patient DBCT examinations. The possibility of patient-specific dose estimates is considered as well as special diagnostic views and the effect of breast implants. Calculations using the complex models show that the MGD for mammography is overestimated by about 30% when the simple models are used. The design and uses of breast-simulating test phantoms for measuring incident air kerma are outlined and comparisons made between patient and phantom-based dose estimates. The most widely used national and international dosimetry protocols for mammography are based on different simple geometrical models of the breast, and harmonisation of these protocols using more complex breast models is desirable. PMID:27617767

Dosimetry in x-ray-based breast imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dance, David R.; Sechopoulos, Ioannis

2016-10-01

The estimation of the mean glandular dose to the breast (MGD) for x-ray based imaging modalities forms an essential part of quality control and is needed for risk estimation and for system design and optimisation. This review considers the development of methods for estimating the MGD for mammography, digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and dedicated breast CT (DBCT). Almost all of the methodology used employs Monte Carlo calculated conversion factors to relate the measurable quantity, generally the incident air kerma, to the MGD. After a review of the size and composition of the female breast, the various mathematical models used are discussed, with particular emphasis on models for mammography. These range from simple geometrical shapes, to the more recent complex models based on patient DBCT examinations. The possibility of patient-specific dose estimates is considered as well as special diagnostic views and the effect of breast implants. Calculations using the complex models show that the MGD for mammography is overestimated by about 30% when the simple models are used. The design and uses of breast-simulating test phantoms for measuring incident air kerma are outlined and comparisons made between patient and phantom-based dose estimates. The most widely used national and international dosimetry protocols for mammography are based on different simple geometrical models of the breast, and harmonisation of these protocols using more complex breast models is desirable.

Development of a Bayesian response-adaptive trial design for the Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation study.

PubMed

Holm Hansen, Christian; Warner, Pamela; Parker, Richard A; Walker, Brian R; Critchley, Hilary Od; Weir, Christopher J

2017-12-01

It is often unclear what specific adaptive trial design features lead to an efficient design which is also feasible to implement. This article describes the preparatory simulation study for a Bayesian response-adaptive dose-finding trial design. Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation aims to assess the efficacy of Dexamethasone in reducing excessive menstrual bleeding and to determine the best dose for further study. To maximise learning about the dose response, patients receive placebo or an active dose with randomisation probabilities adapting based on evidence from patients already recruited. The dose-response relationship is estimated using a flexible Bayesian Normal Dynamic Linear Model. Several competing design options were considered including: number of doses, proportion assigned to placebo, adaptation criterion, and number and timing of adaptations. We performed a fractional factorial study using SAS software to simulate virtual trial data for candidate adaptive designs under a variety of scenarios and to invoke WinBUGS for Bayesian model estimation. We analysed the simulated trial results using Normal linear models to estimate the effects of each design feature on empirical type I error and statistical power. Our readily-implemented approach using widely available statistical software identified a final design which performed robustly across a range of potential trial scenarios.

A generic biokinetic model for noble gases with application to radon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, Richard Wayne; Marsh, James; Gregoratto, Demetrio

The International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) currently uses a dose conversion coefficient to calculate effective dose per unit exposure to radon and its progeny. The coefficient is derived by dividing the detriment associated with unit exposure to radon, as estimated from epidemiological studies, by the detriment per unit effective dose, as estimated mainly from atomic bomb survivor data and animal studies. In a recent statement the ICRP indicated that future guidance on exposure to radon and its progeny will be developed in the same way as guidance for any other radionuclide. That is, intake of radon and progeny willmore » be limited on the basis of effective dose coefficients derived from biokinetic and dosimetric models. This paper proposes a biokinetic model for systemic (absorbed) radon for use in the calculation of dose coefficients for inhaled or ingested radon. The model is based largely on physical laws governing transfer of a non-reactive and soluble gas between materials. Model predictions are shown to be consistent with results of controlled studies of the fate of internally deposited radon in human subjects.« less

A Generalized QMRA Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model.

PubMed

Xie, Gang; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Dunn, Peter K; Mengersen, Kerrie

2016-10-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is widely accepted for characterizing the microbial risks associated with food, water, and wastewater. Single-hit dose-response models are the most commonly used dose-response models in QMRA. Denoting PI(d) as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, a three-parameter generalized QMRA beta-Poisson dose-response model, PI(d|α,β,r*), is proposed in which the minimum number of organisms required for causing infection, K min , is not fixed, but a random variable following a geometric distribution with parameter 0

Thyroid cancer following scalp irradiation: a reanalysis accounting for uncertainty in dosimetry.

PubMed

Schafer, D W; Lubin, J H; Ron, E; Stovall, M; Carroll, R J

2001-09-01

In the 1940s and 1950s, over 20,000 children in Israel were treated for tinea capitis (scalp ringworm) by irradiation to induce epilation. Follow-up studies showed that the radiation exposure was associated with the development of malignant thyroid neoplasms. Despite this clear evidence of an effect, the magnitude of the dose-response relationship is much less clear because of probable errors in individual estimates of dose to the thyroid gland. Such errors have the potential to bias dose-response estimation, a potential that was not widely appreciated at the time of the original analyses. We revisit this issue, describing in detail how errors in dosimetry might occur, and we develop a new dose-response model that takes the uncertainties of the dosimetry into account. Our model for the uncertainty in dosimetry is a complex and new variant of the classical multiplicative Berkson error model, having components of classical multiplicative measurement error as well as missing data. Analysis of the tinea capitis data suggests that measurement error in the dosimetry has only a negligible effect on dose-response estimation and inference as well as on the modifying effect of age at exposure.

APPLICATION AND USE OF DOSE ESTIMATING EXPOSURE MODEL (DEEM) FOR DOSE COMPARISONS AFTER EXPOSURE TO TRICHLOROETHYLENE (TCE)

EPA Science Inventory

Route-to-route extrapolations are a crucial step in many risk assessments. Often the doses which result In toxicological end points in one route must be compared with doses resulting from typical environmental exposures by another route. In this case we used EPA's Dose Estimati...

ESTIMATION OF ADULT PATIENT DOSES FOR CHEST X-RAY EXAMINATIONS AND COMPARISON WITH DIAGNOSTIC REFERENCE LEVELS (DRLs).

PubMed

Bas Mor, H; Altinsoy, N; Söyler, I

2018-05-08

The aim of this study was to evaluate the radiation doses to patient during chest (posterior anterior/and lateral) examinations. The study was performed in three public hospitals of İstanbul province with a total of 300 adult patients. Entrance surface dose (ESD) measurements were conducted on computed radiography, digital radiography and screen film system. ESD was estimated by using International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) model and Davies model which are the common indirect models. Results were compared with diagnostic reference levels from the European Commission, IAEA and National Radiological Protection Board. Although the results are compatible with the international diagnostic reference levels, they present variations between the hospitals. Dose variations for the same type of X-ray examination support the idea that further optimization is possible.

Fetus dose estimation in thyroid cancer post-surgical radioiodine therapy.

PubMed

Mianji, Fereidoun A; Diba, Jila Karimi; Babakhani, Asad

2015-01-01

Unrecognised pregnancy during radioisotope therapy of thyroid cancer results in hardly definable embryo/fetus exposures, particularly when the thyroid gland is already removed. Sources of such difficulty include uncertainty in data like pregnancy commencing time, amount and distribution of metastasized thyroid cells in body, effect of the thyroidectomy on the fetus dose coefficient etc. Despite all these uncertainties, estimation of the order of the fetus dose in most cases is enough for medical and legal decision-making purposes. A model for adapting the dose coefficients recommended by the well-known methods to the problem of fetus dose assessment in athyrotic patients is proposed. The model defines a correction factor for the problem and ensures that the fetus dose in athyrotic pregnant patients is less than the normal patients. A case of pregnant patient undergone post-surgical therapy by I-131 is then studied for quantitative comparison of the methods. The results draw a range for the fetus dose in athyrotic patients using the derived factor. This reduces the concerns on under- or over-estimation of the embryo/fetus dose and is helpful for personal and/or legal decision-making on abortion. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Solar particle event organ doses and dose equivalents for interplanetary crews: variations due to body size

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapp, E. N.; Townsend, L. W.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2002-01-01

Proper assessments of spacecraft shielding requirements and concomitant estimates of risk to critical body organs of spacecraft crews from energetic space radiation require accurate, quantitative methods of characterizing the compositional changes in these radiation fields as they pass through the spacecraft and overlying tissue. When estimating astronaut radiation organ doses and dose equivalents it is customary to use the Computerized Anatomical Man (CAM) model of human geometry to account for body self-shielding. Usually, the distribution for the 50th percentile man (175 cm height; 70 kg mass) is used. Most male members of the U.S. astronaut corps are taller and nearly all have heights that deviate from the 175 cm mean. In this work, estimates of critical organ doses and dose equivalents for interplanetary crews exposed to an event similar to the October 1989 solar particle event are presented for male body sizes that vary from the 5th to the 95th percentiles. Overall the results suggest that calculations of organ dose and dose equivalent may vary by as much as approximately 15% as body size is varied from the 5th to the 95th percentile in the population used to derive the CAM model data. c2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

The hormesis database: the occurrence of hormetic dose responses in the toxicological literature.

PubMed

Calabrese, Edward J; Blain, Robyn B

2011-10-01

In 2005 we published an assessment of dose responses that satisfied a priori evaluative criteria for inclusion within the relational retrieval hormesis database (Calabrese and Blain, 2005). The database included information on study characteristics (e.g., biological model, gender, age and other relevant aspects, number of doses, dose distribution/range, quantitative features of the dose response, temporal features/repeat measures, and physical/chemical properties of the agents). The 2005 article covered information for about 5000 dose responses; the present article has been expanded to cover approximately 9000 dose responses. This assessment extends and strengthens the conclusion of the 2005 paper that the hormesis concept is broadly generalizable, being independent of biological model, endpoint measured and chemical class/physical agent. It also confirmed the definable quantitative features of hormetic dose responses in which the strong majority of dose responses display maximum stimulation less than twice that of the control group and a stimulatory width that is within approximately 10-20-fold of the estimated toxicological or pharmacological threshold. The remarkable consistency of the quantitative features of the hormetic dose response suggests that hormesis may provide an estimate of biological plasticity that is broadly generalized across plant, microbial and animal (invertebrate and vertebrate) models. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuryak, Igor; Sachs, Rainer K.; Hlatky, Lynn; Mark P. Little; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Brenner, David J.

2006-01-01

Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low-dose-rate dose to the bone marrow (mean = 2.5 Gy) was consistent with the measured ERR (0.62, 95% Cl =-0.2 to 1.9). Conclusions: An extended, biologically based model for leukemia that includes HSC initiation, inactivation, proliferation, and, uniquely for leukemia, long-range HSC migration predicts, %Kith reasonable accuracy, risks for radiationinduced leukemia associated with exposure to therapeutic doses of radiation.

Basis for the ICRP’s updated biokinetic model for carbon inhaled as CO 2

DOE PAGES

Leggett, Richard W.

2017-03-02

Here, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is updating its biokinetic and dosimetric models for occupational intake of radionuclides (OIR) in a series of reports called the OIR series. This paper describes the basis for the ICRP's updated biokinetic model for inhalation of radiocarbon as carbon dioxide (CO 2) gas. The updated model is based on biokinetic data for carbon isotopes inhaled as carbon dioxide or injected or ingested as bicarbonatemore » $$({{{\\rm{HCO}}}_{3}}^{-}).$$ The data from these studies are expected to apply equally to internally deposited (or internally produced) carbon dioxide and bicarbonate based on comparison of excretion rates for the two administered forms and the fact that carbon dioxide and bicarbonate are largely carried in a common form (CO 2–H$${{{\\rm{CO}}}_{3}}^{-})$$ in blood. Compared with dose estimates based on current ICRP biokinetic models for inhaled carbon dioxide or ingested carbon, the updated model will result in a somewhat higher dose estimate for 14C inhaled as CO 2 and a much lower dose estimate for 14C ingested as bicarbonate.« less

Basis for the ICRP’s updated biokinetic model for carbon inhaled as CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, Richard W.

Here, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is updating its biokinetic and dosimetric models for occupational intake of radionuclides (OIR) in a series of reports called the OIR series. This paper describes the basis for the ICRP's updated biokinetic model for inhalation of radiocarbon as carbon dioxide (CO 2) gas. The updated model is based on biokinetic data for carbon isotopes inhaled as carbon dioxide or injected or ingested as bicarbonatemore » $$({{{\\rm{HCO}}}_{3}}^{-}).$$ The data from these studies are expected to apply equally to internally deposited (or internally produced) carbon dioxide and bicarbonate based on comparison of excretion rates for the two administered forms and the fact that carbon dioxide and bicarbonate are largely carried in a common form (CO 2–H$${{{\\rm{CO}}}_{3}}^{-})$$ in blood. Compared with dose estimates based on current ICRP biokinetic models for inhaled carbon dioxide or ingested carbon, the updated model will result in a somewhat higher dose estimate for 14C inhaled as CO 2 and a much lower dose estimate for 14C ingested as bicarbonate.« less

Population Pharmacokinetics and Optimal Sampling Strategy for Model-Based Precision Dosing of Melphalan in Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Mizuno, Kana; Dong, Min; Fukuda, Tsuyoshi; Chandra, Sharat; Mehta, Parinda A; McConnell, Scott; Anaissie, Elias J; Vinks, Alexander A

2018-05-01

High-dose melphalan is an important component of conditioning regimens for patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The current dosing strategy based on body surface area results in a high incidence of oral mucositis and gastrointestinal and liver toxicity. Pharmacokinetically guided dosing will individualize exposure and help minimize overexposure-related toxicity. The purpose of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model and optimal sampling strategy. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed with NONMEM using 98 observations collected from 15 adult patients given the standard dose of 140 or 200 mg/m 2 by intravenous infusion. The determinant-optimal sampling strategy was explored with PopED software. Individual area under the curve estimates were generated by Bayesian estimation using full and the proposed sparse sampling data. The predictive performance of the optimal sampling strategy was evaluated based on bias and precision estimates. The feasibility of the optimal sampling strategy was tested using pharmacokinetic data from five pediatric patients. A two-compartment model best described the data. The final model included body weight and creatinine clearance as predictors of clearance. The determinant-optimal sampling strategies (and windows) were identified at 0.08 (0.08-0.19), 0.61 (0.33-0.90), 2.0 (1.3-2.7), and 4.0 (3.6-4.0) h post-infusion. An excellent correlation was observed between area under the curve estimates obtained with the full and the proposed four-sample strategy (R 2  = 0.98; p < 0.01) with a mean bias of -2.2% and precision of 9.4%. A similar relationship was observed in children (R 2  = 0.99; p < 0.01). The developed pharmacokinetic model-based sparse sampling strategy promises to achieve the target area under the curve as part of precision dosing.

Predictive model accuracy in estimating last Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) intake from plasma and whole blood cannabinoid concentrations in chronic, daily cannabis smokers administered subchronic oral THC*

PubMed Central

Karschner, Erin L.; Schwope, David M.; Schwilke, Eugene W.; Goodwin, Robert S.; Kelly, Deanna L.; Gorelick, David A.; Huestis, Marilyn A.

2012-01-01

Background Determining time since last cannabis/Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) exposure is important in clinical, workplace, and forensic settings. Mathematical models calculating time of last exposure from whole blood concentrations typically employ a theoretical 0.5 whole blood-to-plasma (WB/P) ratio. No studies previously evaluated predictive models utilizing empirically-derived WB/P ratios, or whole blood cannabinoid pharmacokinetics after subchronic THC dosing. Methods Ten male chronic, daily cannabis smokers received escalating around-the-clock oral THC (40-120 mg daily) for 8 days. Cannabinoids were quantified in whole blood and plasma by two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Results Maximum whole blood THC occurred 3.0 h after the first oral THC dose and 103.5 h (4.3 days) during multiple THC dosing. Median WB/P ratios were THC 0.63 (n=196), 11-hydroxy-THC 0.60 (n=189), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC (THCCOOH) 0.55 (n=200). Predictive models utilizing these WB/P ratios accurately estimated last cannabis exposure in 96% and 100% of specimens collected within 1-5 h after a single oral THC dose and throughout multiple dosing, respectively. Models were only 60% and 12.5% accurate 12.5 and 22.5 h after the last THC dose, respectively. Conclusions Predictive models estimating time since last cannabis intake from whole blood and plasma cannabinoid concentrations were inaccurate during abstinence, but highly accurate during active THC dosing. THC redistribution from large cannabinoid body stores and high circulating THCCOOH concentrations create different pharmacokinetic profiles than those in less than daily cannabis smokers that were used to derive the models. Thus, the models do not accurately predict time of last THC intake in individuals consuming THC daily. PMID:22464363

Toxicokinetic Model Development for the Insensitive Munitions Component 2,4-Dinitroanisole.

PubMed

Sweeney, Lisa M; Goodwin, Michelle R; Hulgan, Angela D; Gut, Chester P; Bannon, Desmond I

2015-01-01

The Armed Forces are developing new explosives that are less susceptible to unintentional detonation (insensitive munitions [IMX]). 2,4-Dinitroanisole (DNAN) is a component of IMX. Toxicokinetic data for DNAN are required to support interpretation of toxicology studies and refinement of dose estimates for human risk assessment. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed by gavage (5, 20, or 80 mg DNAN/kg), and blood and tissue samples were analyzed to determine the levels of DNAN and its metabolite 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP). These data and data from the literature were used to develop preliminary physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. The model simulations indicated saturable metabolism of DNAN in rats at higher tested doses. The PBPK model was extrapolated to estimate the toxicokinetics of DNAN and DNP in humans, allowing the estimation of human-equivalent no-effect levels of DNAN exposure from no-observed adverse effect levels determined in laboratory animals, which may guide the selection of exposure limits for DNAN. © The Author(s) 2015.

3D delivered dose assessment using a 4DCT-based motion model

PubMed Central

Cai, Weixing; Hurwitz, Martina H.; Williams, Christopher L.; Dhou, Salam; Berbeco, Ross I.; Seco, Joao; Mishra, Pankaj; Lewis, John H.

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to develop a clinically feasible method of calculating actual delivered dose distributions for patients who have significant respiratory motion during the course of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods: A novel approach was proposed to calculate the actual delivered dose distribution for SBRT lung treatment. This approach can be specified in three steps. (1) At the treatment planning stage, a patient-specific motion model is created from planning 4DCT data. This model assumes that the displacement vector field (DVF) of any respiratory motion deformation can be described as a linear combination of some basis DVFs. (2) During the treatment procedure, 2D time-varying projection images (either kV or MV projections) are acquired, from which time-varying “fluoroscopic” 3D images of the patient are reconstructed using the motion model. The DVF of each timepoint in the time-varying reconstruction is an optimized linear combination of basis DVFs such that the 2D projection of the 3D volume at this timepoint matches the projection image. (3) 3D dose distribution is computed for each timepoint in the set of 3D reconstructed fluoroscopic images, from which the total effective 3D delivered dose is calculated by accumulating deformed dose distributions. This approach was first validated using two modified digital extended cardio-torso (XCAT) phantoms with lung tumors and different respiratory motions. The estimated doses were compared to the dose that would be calculated for routine 4DCT-based planning and to the actual delivered dose that was calculated using “ground truth” XCAT phantoms at all timepoints. The approach was also tested using one set of patient data, which demonstrated the application of our method in a clinical scenario. Results: For the first XCAT phantom that has a mostly regular breathing pattern, the errors in 95% volume dose (D95) are 0.11% and 0.83%, respectively for 3D fluoroscopic images reconstructed from kV and MV projections compared to the ground truth, which is clinically comparable to 4DCT (0.093%). For the second XCAT phantom that has an irregular breathing pattern, the errors are 0.81% and 1.75% for kV and MV reconstructions, both of which are better than that of 4DCT (4.01%). In the case of real patient, although it is impossible to obtain the actual delivered dose, the dose estimation is clinically reasonable and demonstrates differences between 4DCT and MV reconstruction-based dose estimates. Conclusions: With the availability of kV or MV projection images, the proposed approach is able to assess delivered doses for all respiratory phases during treatment. Compared to the planning dose based on 4DCT, the dose estimation using reconstructed 3D fluoroscopic images was as good as 4DCT for regular respiratory pattern and was a better dose estimation for the irregular respiratory pattern. PMID:26127043

3D delivered dose assessment using a 4DCT-based motion model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Weixing; Hurwitz, Martina H.; Williams, Christopher L.

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to develop a clinically feasible method of calculating actual delivered dose distributions for patients who have significant respiratory motion during the course of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods: A novel approach was proposed to calculate the actual delivered dose distribution for SBRT lung treatment. This approach can be specified in three steps. (1) At the treatment planning stage, a patient-specific motion model is created from planning 4DCT data. This model assumes that the displacement vector field (DVF) of any respiratory motion deformation can be described as a linear combination of some basismore » DVFs. (2) During the treatment procedure, 2D time-varying projection images (either kV or MV projections) are acquired, from which time-varying “fluoroscopic” 3D images of the patient are reconstructed using the motion model. The DVF of each timepoint in the time-varying reconstruction is an optimized linear combination of basis DVFs such that the 2D projection of the 3D volume at this timepoint matches the projection image. (3) 3D dose distribution is computed for each timepoint in the set of 3D reconstructed fluoroscopic images, from which the total effective 3D delivered dose is calculated by accumulating deformed dose distributions. This approach was first validated using two modified digital extended cardio-torso (XCAT) phantoms with lung tumors and different respiratory motions. The estimated doses were compared to the dose that would be calculated for routine 4DCT-based planning and to the actual delivered dose that was calculated using “ground truth” XCAT phantoms at all timepoints. The approach was also tested using one set of patient data, which demonstrated the application of our method in a clinical scenario. Results: For the first XCAT phantom that has a mostly regular breathing pattern, the errors in 95% volume dose (D95) are 0.11% and 0.83%, respectively for 3D fluoroscopic images reconstructed from kV and MV projections compared to the ground truth, which is clinically comparable to 4DCT (0.093%). For the second XCAT phantom that has an irregular breathing pattern, the errors are 0.81% and 1.75% for kV and MV reconstructions, both of which are better than that of 4DCT (4.01%). In the case of real patient, although it is impossible to obtain the actual delivered dose, the dose estimation is clinically reasonable and demonstrates differences between 4DCT and MV reconstruction-based dose estimates. Conclusions: With the availability of kV or MV projection images, the proposed approach is able to assess delivered doses for all respiratory phases during treatment. Compared to the planning dose based on 4DCT, the dose estimation using reconstructed 3D fluoroscopic images was as good as 4DCT for regular respiratory pattern and was a better dose estimation for the irregular respiratory pattern.« less

Small field depth dose profile of 6 MV photon beam in a simple air-water heterogeneity combination: A comparison between anisotropic analytical algorithm dose estimation with thermoluminescent dosimeter dose measurement.

PubMed

Mandal, Abhijit; Ram, Chhape; Mourya, Ankur; Singh, Navin

2017-01-01

To establish trends of estimation error of dose calculation by anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA) with respect to dose measured by thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) in air-water heterogeneity for small field size photon. TLDs were irradiated along the central axis of the photon beam in four different solid water phantom geometries using three small field size single beams. The depth dose profiles were estimated using AAA calculation model for each field sizes. The estimated and measured depth dose profiles were compared. The over estimation (OE) within air cavity were dependent on field size (f) and distance (x) from solid water-air interface and formulated as OE = - (0.63 f + 9.40) x2+ (-2.73 f + 58.11) x + (0.06 f2 - 1.42 f + 15.67). In postcavity adjacent point and distal points from the interface have dependence on field size (f) and equations are OE = 0.42 f2 - 8.17 f + 71.63, OE = 0.84 f2 - 1.56 f + 17.57, respectively. The trend of estimation error of AAA dose calculation algorithm with respect to measured value have been formulated throughout the radiation path length along the central axis of 6 MV photon beam in air-water heterogeneity combination for small field size photon beam generated from a 6 MV linear accelerator.

APPLICATION AND USE OF DOSE ESTIMATING EXPOSURE MODEL (DEEM) FOR ROUTE TO ROUTE DOSE COMPARISONS AFTER EXPOSURE TO TRICHLOROETHYLENE (TCE)

EPA Science Inventory

Route-to-route extrapolations are a crucial step in many risk assessments. Often the doses which result In toxicological end points in one route must be compared with doses resulting from typical environmental exposures by another route. In this case we used EPA's Dose Estimati...

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

PubMed

Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

2014-11-01

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in the first year and continuing exposure, the lifetime radiation-related cancer risks based on lifetime dose (which are highest for children under 5 years of age at initial exposure), are small, and much smaller than the lifetime baseline cancer risks. For example, after initial exposure at age 1 year, the lifetime excess radiation risk and baseline risk of all solid cancers in females were estimated to be 0.7 · 10(-2) and 29.0 · 10(-2), respectively. The 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are very small. However, for initial exposure in childhood, the 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are up to 33 and 88% as large as the 15 year baseline risks for leukemia and thyroid cancer, respectively. The results may be scaled to particular dose estimates after consideration of caveats. One caveat is related to the lack of epidemiological evidence defining risks at low doses, because the predicted risks come from cancer risk models fitted to a wide dose range (0-4 Gy), which assume that the solid cancer and leukemia lifetime risks for doses less than about 0.5 Gy and 0.2 Gy, respectively, are proportional to organ/tissue doses: this is unlikely to seriously underestimate risks, but may overestimate risks. This WHO-HRA framework may be used to update the risk estimates, when new population health statistics data, dosimetry information and radiation risk models become available.

Monte Carlo simulations to assess the effects of tube current modulation on breast dose for multidetector CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angel, Erin; Yaghmai, Nazanin; Matilda Jude, Cecilia; DeMarco, John J.; Cagnon, Christopher H.; Goldin, Jonathan G.; Primak, Andrew N.; Stevens, Donna M.; Cody, Dianna D.; McCollough, Cynthia H.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.

2009-02-01

Tube current modulation was designed to reduce radiation dose in CT imaging while maintaining overall image quality. This study aims to develop a method for evaluating the effects of tube current modulation (TCM) on organ dose in CT exams of actual patient anatomy. This method was validated by simulating a TCM and a fixed tube current chest CT exam on 30 voxelized patient models and estimating the radiation dose to each patient's glandular breast tissue. This new method for estimating organ dose was compared with other conventional estimates of dose reduction. Thirty detailed voxelized models of patient anatomy were created based on image data from female patients who had previously undergone clinically indicated CT scans including the chest area. As an indicator of patient size, the perimeter of the patient was measured on the image containing at least one nipple using a semi-automated technique. The breasts were contoured on each image set by a radiologist and glandular tissue was semi-automatically segmented from this region. Previously validated Monte Carlo models of two multidetector CT scanners were used, taking into account details about the source spectra, filtration, collimation and geometry of the scanner. TCM data were obtained from each patient's clinical scan and factored into the model to simulate the effects of TCM. For each patient model, two exams were simulated: a fixed tube current chest CT and a tube current modulated chest CT. X-ray photons were transported through the anatomy of the voxelized patient models, and radiation dose was tallied in the glandular breast tissue. The resulting doses from the tube current modulated simulations were compared to the results obtained from simulations performed using a fixed mA value. The average radiation dose to the glandular breast tissue from a fixed tube current scan across all patient models was 19 mGy. The average reduction in breast dose using the tube current modulated scan was 17%. Results were size dependent with smaller patients getting better dose reduction (up to 64% reduction) and larger patients getting a smaller reduction, and in some cases the dose actually increased when using tube current modulation (up to 41% increase). The results indicate that radiation dose to glandular breast tissue generally decreases with the use of tube current modulated CT acquisition, but that patient size (and in some cases patient positioning) may affect dose reduction.

Modeling Freedom From Progression for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma: A Mathematical Tumor Control Model With Multiple Modes of Failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brodin, N. Patrik, E-mail: nils.patrik.brodin@rh.dk; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen; Vogelius, Ivan R.

2013-10-01

Purpose: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. Methods and Materials: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used tomore » model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. Results: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. Conclusions: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available.« less

EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data.

PubMed

Xue, Jianping; Zartarian, Valerie; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Tulve, Nicolle S

2014-12-01

The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cumulative doses for seven commonly used pyrethroids, and comparisons of model evaluation results with NHANES biomarker data for 3-PBA and DCCA metabolites. Model input distributions were fit to publicly available pesticide usage survey data, NHANES, and other studies, then SHEDS-Multimedia was applied to estimate total pyrethroid exposures and doses for 3-5 year olds for one year variability simulations. For dose estimations we used a pharmacokinetic model and two approaches for simulating dermal absorption. SHEDS-Multimedia predictions compared well to NHANES biomarker data: ratios of 3-PBA observed data to SHEDS-Multimedia modeled results were 0.88, 0.51, 0.54 and 1.02 for mean, median, 95th, and 99th percentiles, respectively; for DCCA, the ratios were 0.82, 0.53, 0.56, and 0.94. Modeled time-averaged cumulative absorbed dose of the seven pyrethroids was 3.1 nmol/day (versus 8.4 nmol/day for adults) in the general population (residential pyrethroid use and non-use homes) and 6.7 nmol/day (versus 10.5 nmol/day for adults) in the simulated residential pyrethroid use population. For the general population, contributions to modeled cumulative dose by chemical were permethrin (60%), cypermethrin (22%), and cyfluthrin (16%); for residential use homes, contributions were cypermethrin (49%), permethrin (29%), and cyfluthrin (17%). The primary exposure route for 3-5 year olds in the simulated residential use population was non-dietary ingestion exposure; whereas for the simulated general population, dietary exposure was the primary exposure route. Below the 95th percentile, the major exposure pathway was dietary for the general population; non-dietary ingestion was the major pathway starting below the 70th percentile for the residential use population. The new dermal absorption methodology considering surface loading had some impact, but did not change the order of key pathways. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Development of computational pregnant female and fetus models and assessment of radiation dose from positron-emitting tracers.

PubMed

Xie, Tianwu; Zaidi, Habib

2016-12-01

Molecular imaging using PET and hybrid (PET/CT and PET/MR) modalities nowadays plays a pivotal role in the clinical setting for diagnosis and staging, treatment response monitoring, and radiation therapy treatment planning of a wide range of oncologic malignancies. The developing embryo/fetus presents a high sensitivity to ionizing radiation. Therefore, estimation of the radiation dose delivered to the embryo/fetus and pregnant patients from PET examinations to assess potential radiation risks is highly praised. We constructed eight embryo/fetus models at various gestation periods with 25 identified tissues according to reference data recommended by the ICRP publication 89 representing the anatomy of the developing embryo/fetus. The developed embryo/fetus models were integrated into realistic anthropomorphic computational phantoms of the pregnant female and used for estimating, using Monte Carlo calculations, S-values of common positron-emitting radionuclides, organ absorbed dose, and effective dose of a number of positron-emitting labeled radiotracers. The absorbed dose is nonuniformly distributed in the fetus. The absorbed dose of the kidney and liver of the 8-week-old fetus are about 47.45 % and 44.76 % higher than the average absorbed dose of the fetal total body for all investigated radiotracers. For 18 F-FDG, the fetal effective doses are 2.90E-02, 3.09E-02, 1.79E-02, 1.59E-02, 1.47E-02, 1.40E-02, 1.37E-02, and 1.27E-02 mSv/MBq at the 8th, 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th, 30th, 35th, and 38th weeks of gestation, respectively. The developed pregnant female/fetus models matching the ICRP reference data can be exploited by dedicated software packages for internal and external dose calculations. The generated S-values will be useful to produce new standardized dose estimates to pregnant patients and embryo/fetus from a variety of positron-emitting labeled radiotracers.

Validation of an aggregate exposure model for substances in consumer products: a case study of diethyl phthalate in personal care products

PubMed Central

Delmaar, Christiaan; Bokkers, Bas; ter Burg, Wouter; Schuur, Gerlienke

2015-01-01

As personal care products (PCPs) are used in close contact with a person, they are a major source of consumer exposure to chemical substances contained in these products. The estimation of realistic consumer exposure to substances in PCPs is currently hampered by the lack of appropriate data and methods. To estimate aggregate exposure of consumers to substances contained in PCPs, a person-oriented consumer exposure model has been developed (the Probabilistic Aggregate Consumer Exposure Model, PACEM). The model simulates daily exposure in a population based on product use data collected from a survey among the Dutch population. The model is validated by comparing diethyl phthalate (DEP) dose estimates to dose estimates based on biomonitoring data. It was found that the model's estimates compared well with the estimates based on biomonitoring data. This suggests that the person-oriented PACEM model is a practical tool for assessing realistic aggregate exposures to substances in PCPs. In the future, PACEM will be extended with use pattern data on other product groups. This will allow for assessing aggregate exposure to substances in consumer products across different product groups. PMID:25352161

The development and validation of a Monte Carlo model for calculating the out-of-field dose from radiotherapy treatments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kry, Stephen

Introduction. External beam photon radiotherapy is a common treatment for many malignancies, but results in the exposure of the patient to radiation away from the treatment site. This out-of-field radiation irradiates healthy tissue and may lead to the induction of secondary malignancies. Out-of-field radiation is composed of photons and, at high treatment energies, neutrons. Measurement of this out-of-field dose is time consuming, often difficult, and is specific to the conditions of the measurements. Monte Carlo simulations may be a viable approach to determining the out-of-field dose quickly, accurately, and for arbitrary irradiation conditions. Methods. An accelerator head, gantry, and treatment vault were modeled with MCNPX and 6 MV and 18 MV beams were simulated. Photon doses were calculated in-field and compared to measurements made with an ion chamber in a water tank. Photon doses were also calculated out-of-field from static fields and compared to measurements made with thermoluminescent dosimeters in acrylic. Neutron fluences were calculated and compared to measurements made with gold foils. Finally, photon and neutron dose equivalents were calculated in an anthropomorphic phantom following intensity-modulated radiation therapy and compared to previously published dose equivalents. Results. The Monte Carlo model was able to accurately calculate the in-field dose. From static treatment fields, the model was also able to calculate the out-of-field photon dose within 16% at 6 MV and 17% at 18 MV and the neutron fluence within 19% on average. From the simulated IMRT treatments, the calculated out-of-field photon dose was within 14% of measurement at 6 MV and 13% at 18 MV on average. The calculated neutron dose equivalent was much lower than the measured value but is likely accurate because the measured neutron dose equivalent was based on an overestimated neutron energy. Based on the calculated out-of-field doses generated by the Monte Carlo model, it was possible to estimate the risk of fatal secondary malignancy, which was consistent with previous estimates except for the neutron discrepancy. Conclusions. The Monte Carlo model developed here is well suited to studying the out-of-field dose equivalent from photons and neutrons under a variety of irradiation configurations, including complex treatments on complex phantoms. Based on the calculated dose equivalents, it is possible to estimate the risk of secondary malignancy associated with out-of-field doses. The Monte Carlo model should be used to study, quantify, and minimize the out-of-field dose equivalent and associated risks received by patients undergoing radiation therapy.

Changes in the retreatment radiation tolerance of the spinal cord with time after the initial treatment.

PubMed

Woolley, Thomas E; Belmonte-Beitia, Juan; Calvo, Gabriel F; Hopewell, John W; Gaffney, Eamonn A; Jones, Bleddyn

2018-06-01

To estimate, from experimental data, the retreatment radiation 'tolerances' of the spinal cord at different times after initial treatment. A model was developed to show the relationship between the biological effective doses (BEDs) for two separate courses of treatment with the BED of each course being expressed as a percentage of the designated 'retreatment tolerance' BED value, denoted [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. The primate data of Ang et al. ( 2001 ) were used to determine the fitted parameters. However, based on rodent data, recovery was assumed to commence 70 days after the first course was complete, and with a non-linear relationship to the magnitude of the initial BED (BED init ). The model, taking into account the above processes, provides estimates of the retreatment tolerance dose after different times. Extrapolations from the experimental data can provide conservative estimates for the clinic, with a lower acceptable myelopathy incidence. Care must be taken to convert the predicted [Formula: see text] value into a formal BED value and then a practical dose fractionation schedule. Used with caution, the proposed model allows estimations of retreatment doses with elapsed times ranging from 70 days up to three years after the initial course of treatment.

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project: Draft

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

A MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING CHILDREN'S RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO CHLORPYRIFOS VIA DERMAL RESIDUE CONTACT AND NON-DIETARY INGESTION

EPA Science Inventory

To help address the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996, a physically-based probabilistic model (Residential Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Pesticides; Residential-SHEDS) has been developed to quantify and analyze dermal and non-dietary ingestion exposu...

Influence of different dose calculation algorithms on the estimate of NTCP for lung complications.

PubMed

Hedin, Emma; Bäck, Anna

2013-09-06

Due to limitations and uncertainties in dose calculation algorithms, different algorithms can predict different dose distributions and dose-volume histograms for the same treatment. This can be a problem when estimating the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for patient-specific dose distributions. Published NTCP model parameters are often derived for a different dose calculation algorithm than the one used to calculate the actual dose distribution. The use of algorithm-specific NTCP model parameters can prevent errors caused by differences in dose calculation algorithms. The objective of this work was to determine how to change the NTCP model parameters for lung complications derived for a simple correction-based pencil beam dose calculation algorithm, in order to make them valid for three other common dose calculation algorithms. NTCP was calculated with the relative seriality (RS) and Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) models. The four dose calculation algorithms used were the pencil beam (PB) and collapsed cone (CC) algorithms employed by Oncentra, and the pencil beam convolution (PBC) and anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA) employed by Eclipse. Original model parameters for lung complications were taken from four published studies on different grades of pneumonitis, and new algorithm-specific NTCP model parameters were determined. The difference between original and new model parameters was presented in relation to the reported model parameter uncertainties. Three different types of treatments were considered in the study: tangential and locoregional breast cancer treatment and lung cancer treatment. Changing the algorithm without the derivation of new model parameters caused changes in the NTCP value of up to 10 percentage points for the cases studied. Furthermore, the error introduced could be of the same magnitude as the confidence intervals of the calculated NTCP values. The new NTCP model parameters were tabulated as the algorithm was varied from PB to PBC, AAA, or CC. Moving from the PB to the PBC algorithm did not require new model parameters; however, moving from PB to AAA or CC did require a change in the NTCP model parameters, with CC requiring the largest change. It was shown that the new model parameters for a given algorithm are different for the different treatment types.

Spatial Prediction of Coxiella burnetii Outbreak Exposure via Notified Case Counts in a Dose-Response Model.

PubMed

Brooke, Russell J; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E E; Hackert, Volker; Hoebe, Christian J P A; Teunis, Peter F M; Waller, Lance A

2017-01-01

We develop a novel approach to study an outbreak of Q fever in 2009 in the Netherlands by combining a human dose-response model with geostatistics prediction to relate probability of infection and associated probability of illness to an effective dose of Coxiella burnetii. The spatial distribution of the 220 notified cases in the at-risk population are translated into a smooth spatial field of dose. Based on these symptomatic cases, the dose-response model predicts a median of 611 asymptomatic infections (95% range: 410, 1,084) for the 220 reported symptomatic cases in the at-risk population; 2.78 (95% range: 1.86, 4.93) asymptomatic infections for each reported case. The low attack rates observed during the outbreak range from (Equation is included in full-text article.)to (Equation is included in full-text article.). The estimated peak levels of exposure extend to the north-east from the point source with an increasing proportion of asymptomatic infections further from the source. Our work combines established methodology from model-based geostatistics and dose-response modeling allowing for a novel approach to study outbreaks. Unobserved infections and the spatially varying effective dose can be predicted using the flexible framework without assuming any underlying spatial structure of the outbreak process. Such predictions are important for targeting interventions during an outbreak, estimating future disease burden, and determining acceptable risk levels.

MODELING AGGREGATE CHLORPYRIFOS EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

To help address the aggregate exposure assessment needs of the Food Quality Protection Act, a physically-based probabilistic model (SHEDS-Pesticides, version 3) has been applied to estimate aggregate chlorpyrifos exposure and dose to children. Two age groups (0-4, 5-9 years) a...

Multistep Lattice-Voxel method utilizing lattice function for Monte-Carlo treatment planning with pixel based voxel model.

PubMed

Kumada, H; Saito, K; Nakamura, T; Sakae, T; Sakurai, H; Matsumura, A; Ono, K

2011-12-01

Treatment planning for boron neutron capture therapy generally utilizes Monte-Carlo methods for calculation of the dose distribution. The new treatment planning system JCDS-FX employs the multi-purpose Monte-Carlo code PHITS to calculate the dose distribution. JCDS-FX allows to build a precise voxel model consisting of pixel based voxel cells in the scale of 0.4×0.4×2.0 mm(3) voxel in order to perform high-accuracy dose estimation, e.g. for the purpose of calculating the dose distribution in a human body. However, the miniaturization of the voxel size increases calculation time considerably. The aim of this study is to investigate sophisticated modeling methods which can perform Monte-Carlo calculations for human geometry efficiently. Thus, we devised a new voxel modeling method "Multistep Lattice-Voxel method," which can configure a voxel model that combines different voxel sizes by utilizing the lattice function over and over. To verify the performance of the calculation with the modeling method, several calculations for human geometry were carried out. The results demonstrated that the Multistep Lattice-Voxel method enabled the precise voxel model to reduce calculation time substantially while keeping the high-accuracy of dose estimation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calculation of out-of-field dose distribution in carbon-ion radiotherapy by Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Yonai, Shunsuke; Matsufuji, Naruhiro; Namba, Masao

2012-08-01

Recent radiotherapy technologies including carbon-ion radiotherapy can improve the dose concentration in the target volume, thereby not only reducing side effects in organs at risk but also the secondary cancer risk within or near the irradiation field. However, secondary cancer risk in the low-dose region is considered to be non-negligible, especially for younger patients. To achieve a dose estimation of the whole body of each patient receiving carbon-ion radiotherapy, which is essential for risk assessment and epidemiological studies, Monte Carlo simulation plays an important role because the treatment planning system can provide dose distribution only in∕near the irradiation field and the measured data are limited. However, validation of Monte Carlo simulations is necessary. The primary purpose of this study was to establish a calculation method using the Monte Carlo code to estimate the dose and quality factor in the body and to validate the proposed method by comparison with experimental data. Furthermore, we show the distributions of dose equivalent in a phantom and identify the partial contribution of each radiation type. We proposed a calculation method based on a Monte Carlo simulation using the PHITS code to estimate absorbed dose, dose equivalent, and dose-averaged quality factor by using the Q(L)-L relationship based on the ICRP 60 recommendation. The values obtained by this method in modeling the passive beam line at the Heavy-Ion Medical Accelerator in Chiba were compared with our previously measured data. It was shown that our calculation model can estimate the measured value within a factor of 2, which included not only the uncertainty of this calculation method but also those regarding the assumptions of the geometrical modeling and the PHITS code. Also, we showed the differences in the doses and the partial contributions of each radiation type between passive and active carbon-ion beams using this calculation method. These results indicated that it is essentially important to include the dose by secondary neutrons in the assessment of the secondary cancer risk of patients receiving carbon-ion radiotherapy with active as well as passive beams. We established a calculation method with a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the distribution of dose equivalent in the body as a first step toward routine risk assessment and an epidemiological study of carbon-ion radiotherapy at NIRS. This method has the advantage of being verifiable by the measurement.

Estimated dose rates to members of the public from external exposure to patients with {sup 131}I thyroid treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dewji, S., E-mail: dewjisa@ornl.gov; Bellamy, M.; Leggett, R.

Purpose: Estimated dose rates that may result from exposure to patients who had been administered iodine-131 ({sup 131}I) as part of medical therapy were calculated. These effective dose rate estimates were compared with simplified assumptions under United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 8.39, which does not consider body tissue attenuation nor time-dependent redistribution and excretion of the administered {sup 131}I. Methods: Dose rates were estimated for members of the public potentially exposed to external irradiation from patients recently treated with {sup 131}I. Tissue attenuation and iodine biokinetics were considered in the patient in a larger comprehensive effort to improvemore » external dose rate estimates. The external dose rate estimates are based on Monte Carlo simulations using the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs (PIMAL), previously developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. PIMAL was employed to model the relative positions of the {sup 131}I patient and members of the public in three exposure scenarios: (1) traveling on a bus in a total of six seated or standing permutations, (2) two nursing home cases where a caregiver is seated at 30 cm from the patient’s bedside and a nursing home resident seated 250 cm away from the patient in an adjacent bed, and (3) two hotel cases where the patient and a guest are in adjacent rooms with beds on opposite sides of the common wall, with the patient and guest both in bed and either seated back-to-back or lying head to head. The biokinetic model predictions of the retention and distribution of {sup 131}I in the patient assumed a single voiding of urinary bladder contents that occurred during the trip at 2, 4, or 8 h after {sup 131}I administration for the public transportation cases, continuous first-order voiding for the nursing home cases, and regular periodic voiding at 4, 8, or 12 h after administration for the hotel room cases. Organ specific activities of {sup 131}I in the thyroid, bladder, and combined remaining tissues were calculated as a function of time after administration. Exposures to members of the public were considered for {sup 131}I patients with normal thyroid uptake (peak thyroid uptake of ∼27% of administered {sup 131}I), differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC, 5% uptake), and hyperthyroidism (80% uptake). Results: The scenario with the patient seated behind the member of the public yielded the highest dose rate estimate of seated public transportation exposure cases. The dose rate to the adjacent room guest was highest for the exposure scenario in which the hotel guest and patient are seated by a factor of ∼4 for the normal and differentiated thyroid cancer uptake cases and by a factor of ∼3 for the hyperthyroid case. Conclusions: It was determined that for all modeled cases, the DTC case yielded the lowest external dose rates, whereas the hyperthyroid case yielded the highest dose rates. In estimating external dose to members of the public from patients with {sup 131}I therapy, consideration must be given to (patient- and case-specific) administered {sup 131}I activities and duration of exposure for a more complete estimate. The method implemented here included a detailed calculation model, which provides a means to determine dose rate estimates for a range of scenarios. The method was demonstrated for variations of three scenarios, showing how dose rates are expected to vary with uptake, voiding pattern, and patient location.« less

An Algorithm and R Program for Fitting and Simulation of Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Data.

PubMed

Li, Jijie; Yan, Kewei; Hou, Lisha; Du, Xudong; Zhu, Ping; Zheng, Li; Zhu, Cairong

2017-06-01

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic link models are widely used in dose-finding studies. By applying such models, the results of initial pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic studies can be used to predict the potential therapeutic dose range. This knowledge can improve the design of later comparative large-scale clinical trials by reducing the number of participants and saving time and resources. However, the modeling process can be challenging, time consuming, and costly, even when using cutting-edge, powerful pharmacological software. Here, we provide a freely available R program for expediently analyzing pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic data, including data importation, parameter estimation, simulation, and model diagnostics. First, we explain the theory related to the establishment of the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic link model. Subsequently, we present the algorithms used for parameter estimation and potential therapeutic dose computation. The implementation of the R program is illustrated by a clinical example. The software package is then validated by comparing the model parameters and the goodness-of-fit statistics generated by our R package with those generated by the widely used pharmacological software WinNonlin. The pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters as well as the potential recommended therapeutic dose can be acquired with the R package. The validation process shows that the parameters estimated using our package are satisfactory. The R program developed and presented here provides pharmacokinetic researchers with a simple and easy-to-access tool for pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis on personal computers.

Estimation of body surface area in the musk shrew ( Suncus murinus): a small animal for testing chemotherapy-induced emesis.

PubMed

Eiseman, Julie L; Sciullo, Michael; Wang, Hong; Beumer, Jan H; Horn, Charles C

2017-10-01

Several cancer chemotherapies cause nausea and vomiting, which can be dose-limiting. Musk shrews are used as preclinical models for chemotherapy-induced emesis and for antiemetic effectiveness. Unlike rats and mice, shrews possess a vomiting reflex and demonstrate an emetic profile similar to humans, including acute and delayed phases. As with most animals, dosing of shrews is based on body weight, while translation of such doses to clinically equivalent exposure requires doses based on body surface area. In the current study body surface area in musk shrews was directly assessed to determine the Meeh constant (K m ) conversion factor (female = 9.97, male = 9.10), allowing estimation of body surface area based on body weight. These parameters can be used to determine dosing strategies for shrew studies that model human drug exposures, particularly for investigating the emetic liability of cancer chemotherapeutic agents.

Biological dose estimation for charged-particle therapy using an improved PHITS code coupled with a microdosimetric kinetic model.

PubMed

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kase, Yuki; Watanabe, Ritsuko; Niita, Koji; Sihver, Lembit

2009-01-01

Microdosimetric quantities such as lineal energy, y, are better indexes for expressing the RBE of HZE particles in comparison to LET. However, the use of microdosimetric quantities in computational dosimetry is severely limited because of the difficulty in calculating their probability densities in macroscopic matter. We therefore improved the particle transport simulation code PHITS, providing it with the capability of estimating the microdosimetric probability densities in a macroscopic framework by incorporating a mathematical function that can instantaneously calculate the probability densities around the trajectory of HZE particles with a precision equivalent to that of a microscopic track-structure simulation. A new method for estimating biological dose, the product of physical dose and RBE, from charged-particle therapy was established using the improved PHITS coupled with a microdosimetric kinetic model. The accuracy of the biological dose estimated by this method was tested by comparing the calculated physical doses and RBE values with the corresponding data measured in a slab phantom irradiated with several kinds of HZE particles. The simulation technique established in this study will help to optimize the treatment planning of charged-particle therapy, thereby maximizing the therapeutic effect on tumors while minimizing unintended harmful effects on surrounding normal tissues.

Comparative Benchmark Dose Modeling as a Tool to Make the First Estimate of Safe Human Exposure Levels to Lunar Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.; Lam, Chiu-wing; Scully, Robert R.

2013-01-01

Brief exposures of Apollo Astronauts to lunar dust occasionally elicited upper respiratory irritation; however, no limits were ever set for prolonged exposure ot lunar dust. Habitats for exploration, whether mobile of fixed must be designed to limit human exposure to lunar dust to safe levels. We have used a new technique we call Comparative Benchmark Dose Modeling to estimate safe exposure limits for lunar dust collected during the Apollo 14 mission.

A Population Pharmacokinetic Model for 51Cr EDTA to Estimate Renal Function.

PubMed

Kuan, Isabelle H S; Duffull, Stephen B; Putt, Tracey L; Schollum, John B W; Walker, Robert J; Wright, Daniel F B

2017-06-01

51 Cr EDTA clearance (CL) from plasma is used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We propose that current methods for analysing the raw 51 Cr EDTA measurements over-simplifies the disposition of 51 Cr EDTA and therefore could produce biased GFR estimates. The aim of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for 51 Cr EDTA disposition and to compare model-predicted GFR to other methods of estimating renal function. Data from 40 individuals who received ~7.4 MBq of 51 Cr EDTA, as an intravenous bolus, were available for analysis. Plasma radioactivity (counts/min) was measured from timed collection points at 2, 4, 6 and 24 h after the dose. A population analysis was conducted using NONMEM ® version 7.2. Model-predicted GFR was compared with other methods for estimating renal function using mean prediction error (MPE). A two-compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order elimination best fit the data. Compared with the model predictions, creatinine CL from 24 h urine data was unbiased. The commonly used 'slope-intercept' method for estimating isotopic GFR was positively biased compared with the model (MPE 15.5 mL/min/1.73 m 2 [95% confidence interval {CI} 8.9-22.2]. The Cockcroft Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-Epi) equations led to negatively biased GFR estimates (MPE -19.0 [95% CI -25.4 to -12.7], -20.1 [95% CI -27.2 to -13.1] and -16.5 [95% CI -22.2 to -10.1] mL/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively). The biased GFR estimates were most obvious in patients with relatively normal renal function. This may lead to inaccurate dosing in patients who are receiving drugs with a narrow therapeutic range where dosing is adjusted according to GFR estimates (e.g. carboplatin). The study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), number: ACTRN 12611000035921.

Validation of the physical and RBE-weighted dose estimator based on PHITS coupled with a microdosimetric kinetic model for proton therapy.

PubMed

Takada, Kenta; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kumada, Hiroaki; Koketsu, Junichi; Takei, Hideyuki; Sakurai, Hideyuki; Sakae, Takeji

2018-01-01

The microdosimetric kinetic model (MKM) is widely used for estimating relative biological effectiveness (RBE)-weighted doses for various radiotherapies because it can determine the surviving fraction of irradiated cells based on only the lineal energy distribution, and it is independent of the radiation type and ion species. However, the applicability of the method to proton therapy has not yet been investigated thoroughly. In this study, we validated the RBE-weighted dose calculated by the MKM in tandem with the Monte Carlo code PHITS for proton therapy by considering the complete simulation geometry of the clinical proton beam line. The physical dose, lineal energy distribution, and RBE-weighted dose for a 155 MeV mono-energetic and spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) beam of 60 mm width were evaluated. In estimating the physical dose, the calculated depth dose distribution by irradiating the mono-energetic beam using PHITS was consistent with the data measured by a diode detector. A maximum difference of 3.1% in the depth distribution was observed for the SOBP beam. In the RBE-weighted dose validation, the calculated lineal energy distributions generally agreed well with the published measurement data. The calculated and measured RBE-weighted doses were in excellent agreement, except at the Bragg peak region of the mono-energetic beam, where the calculation overestimated the measured data by ~15%. This research has provided a computational microdosimetric approach based on a combination of PHITS and MKM for typical clinical proton beams. The developed RBE-estimator function has potential application in the treatment planning system for various radiotherapies. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

Validation of the physical and RBE-weighted dose estimator based on PHITS coupled with a microdosimetric kinetic model for proton therapy

PubMed Central

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kumada, Hiroaki; Koketsu, Junichi; Takei, Hideyuki; Sakurai, Hideyuki; Sakae, Takeji

2018-01-01

Abstract The microdosimetric kinetic model (MKM) is widely used for estimating relative biological effectiveness (RBE)-weighted doses for various radiotherapies because it can determine the surviving fraction of irradiated cells based on only the lineal energy distribution, and it is independent of the radiation type and ion species. However, the applicability of the method to proton therapy has not yet been investigated thoroughly. In this study, we validated the RBE-weighted dose calculated by the MKM in tandem with the Monte Carlo code PHITS for proton therapy by considering the complete simulation geometry of the clinical proton beam line. The physical dose, lineal energy distribution, and RBE-weighted dose for a 155 MeV mono-energetic and spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) beam of 60 mm width were evaluated. In estimating the physical dose, the calculated depth dose distribution by irradiating the mono-energetic beam using PHITS was consistent with the data measured by a diode detector. A maximum difference of 3.1% in the depth distribution was observed for the SOBP beam. In the RBE-weighted dose validation, the calculated lineal energy distributions generally agreed well with the published measurement data. The calculated and measured RBE-weighted doses were in excellent agreement, except at the Bragg peak region of the mono-energetic beam, where the calculation overestimated the measured data by ~15%. This research has provided a computational microdosimetric approach based on a combination of PHITS and MKM for typical clinical proton beams. The developed RBE-estimator function has potential application in the treatment planning system for various radiotherapies. PMID:29087492

Radiation exposure and circulatory disease risk: Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivor data, 1950-2003.

PubMed

Shimizu, Yukiko; Kodama, Kazunori; Nishi, Nobuo; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Suyama, Akihiko; Soda, Midori; Grant, Eric J; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Sakata, Ritsu; Moriwaki, Hiroko; Hayashi, Mikiko; Konda, Manami; Shore, Roy E

2010-01-14

To investigate the degree to which ionising radiation confers risk of mortality from heart disease and stroke. Prospective cohort study with more than 50 years of follow-up. Atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. 86 611 Life Span Study cohort members with individually estimated radiation doses from 0 to >3 Gy (86% received <0.2 Gy). Mortality from stroke or heart disease as the underlying cause of death and dose-response relations with atomic bomb radiation. About 9600 participants died of stroke and 8400 died of heart disease between 1950 and 2003. For stroke, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 9% (95% confidence interval 1% to 17%, P=0.02) on the basis of a linear dose-response model, but an indication of possible upward curvature suggested relatively little risk at low doses. For heart disease, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 14% (6% to 23%, P<0.001); a linear model provided the best fit, suggesting excess risk even at lower doses. However, the dose-response effect over the restricted dose range of 0 to 0.5 Gy was not significant. Prospective data on smoking, alcohol intake, education, occupation, obesity, and diabetes had almost no impact on the radiation risk estimates for either stroke or heart disease, and misdiagnosis of cancers as circulatory diseases could not account for the associations seen. Doses above 0.5 Gy are associated with an elevated risk of both stroke and heart disease, but the degree of risk at lower doses is unclear. Stroke and heart disease together account for about one third as many radiation associated excess deaths as do cancers among atomic bomb survivors.

Dose-dependent EEG effects of zolpidem provide evidence for GABA(A) receptor subtype selectivity in vivo.

PubMed

Visser, S A G; Wolters, F L C; van der Graaf, P H; Peletier, L A; Danhof, M

2003-03-01

Zolpidem is a nonbenzodiazepine GABA(A) receptor modulator that binds in vitro with high affinity to GABA(A) receptors expressing alpha(1) subunits but with relatively low affinity to receptors expressing alpha(2), alpha(3), and alpha(5) subunits. In the present study, it was investigated whether this subtype selectivity could be detected and quantified in vivo. Three doses (1.25, 5, and 25 mg) of zolpidem were administered to rats in an intravenous infusion over 5 min. The time course of the plasma concentrations was determined in conjunction with the change in the beta-frequency range of the EEG as pharmacodynamic endpoint. The concentration-effect relationship of the three doses showed a dose-dependent maximum effect and a dose-dependent potency. The data were analyzed for one- or two-site binding using two pharmacodynamic models based on 1) the descriptive model and 2) a novel mechanism-based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model for GABA(A) receptor modulators that aims to separates drug- and system-specific properties, thereby allowing the estimation of in vivo affinity and efficacy. The application of two-site models significantly improved the fits compared with one-site models. Furthermore, in contrast to the descriptive model, the mechanism-based PK/PD model yielded dose-independent estimates for affinity (97 +/- 40 and 33,100 +/- 14,800 ng x ml(-1)). In conclusion, the mechanism-based PK/PD model is able to describe and explain the observed dose-dependent EEG effects of zolpidem and suggests the subtype selectivity of zolpidem in vivo.

Optimal clinical trial design based on a dichotomous Markov-chain mixed-effect sleep model.

PubMed

Steven Ernest, C; Nyberg, Joakim; Karlsson, Mats O; Hooker, Andrew C

2014-12-01

D-optimal designs for discrete-type responses have been derived using generalized linear mixed models, simulation based methods and analytical approximations for computing the fisher information matrix (FIM) of non-linear mixed effect models with homogeneous probabilities over time. In this work, D-optimal designs using an analytical approximation of the FIM for a dichotomous, non-homogeneous, Markov-chain phase advanced sleep non-linear mixed effect model was investigated. The non-linear mixed effect model consisted of transition probabilities of dichotomous sleep data estimated as logistic functions using piecewise linear functions. Theoretical linear and nonlinear dose effects were added to the transition probabilities to modify the probability of being in either sleep stage. D-optimal designs were computed by determining an analytical approximation the FIM for each Markov component (one where the previous state was awake and another where the previous state was asleep). Each Markov component FIM was weighted either equally or by the average probability of response being awake or asleep over the night and summed to derive the total FIM (FIM(total)). The reference designs were placebo, 0.1, 1-, 6-, 10- and 20-mg dosing for a 2- to 6-way crossover study in six dosing groups. Optimized design variables were dose and number of subjects in each dose group. The designs were validated using stochastic simulation/re-estimation (SSE). Contrary to expectations, the predicted parameter uncertainty obtained via FIM(total) was larger than the uncertainty in parameter estimates computed by SSE. Nevertheless, the D-optimal designs decreased the uncertainty of parameter estimates relative to the reference designs. Additionally, the improvement for the D-optimal designs were more pronounced using SSE than predicted via FIM(total). Through the use of an approximate analytic solution and weighting schemes, the FIM(total) for a non-homogeneous, dichotomous Markov-chain phase advanced sleep model was computed and provided more efficient trial designs and increased nonlinear mixed-effects modeling parameter precision.

Quantitative dose-response assessment of inhalation exposures to toxic air pollutants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jarabek, A.M.; Foureman, G.L.; Gift, J.S.

1997-12-31

Implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, including evaluation of residual risks. requires accurate human health risk estimates of both acute and chronic inhalation exposures to toxic air pollutants. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC, has a research program that addresses several key issues for development of improved quantitative approaches for dose-response assessment. This paper describes three projects underway in the program. Project A describes a Bayesian approach that was developed to base dose-response estimates on combined data sets and that expresses these estimates as probability density functions. A categorical regressionmore » model has been developed that allows for the combination of all available acute data, with toxicity expressed as severity categories (e.g., mild, moderate, severe), and with both duration and concentration as governing factors. Project C encompasses two refinements to uncertainty factors (UFs) often applied to extrapolate dose-response estimates from laboratory animal data to human equivalent concentrations. Traditional UFs have been based on analyses of oral administration and may not be appropriate for extrapolation of inhalation exposures. Refinement of the UF applied to account for the use of subchronic rather than chronic data was based on an analysis of data from inhalation exposures (Project C-1). Mathematical modeling using the BMD approach was used to calculate the dose-response estimates for comparison between the subchronic and chronic data so that the estimates were not subject to dose-spacing or sample size variability. The second UF that was refined for extrapolation of inhalation data was the adjustment for the use of a LOAEL rather than a NOAEL (Project C-2).« less

Biologically based modeling of multimedia, multipathway, multiroute population exposures to arsenic

PubMed Central

Georgopoulos, Panos G.; Wang, Sheng-Wei; Yang, Yu-Ching; Xue, Jianping; Zartarian, Valerie G.; Mccurdy, Thomas; Özkaynak, Halûk

2011-01-01

This article presents an integrated, biologically based, source-to-dose assessment framework for modeling multimedia/multipathway/multiroute exposures to arsenic. Case studies demonstrating this framework are presented for three US counties (Hunderton County, NJ; Pima County, AZ; and Franklin County, OH), representing substantially different conditions of exposure. The approach taken utilizes the Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies (MENTOR) in an implementation that incorporates and extends the approach pioneered by Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS), in conjunction with a number of available databases, including NATA, NHEXAS, CSFII, and CHAD, and extends modeling techniques that have been developed in recent years. Model results indicate that, in most cases, the food intake pathway is the dominant contributor to total exposure and dose to arsenic. Model predictions are evaluated qualitatively by comparing distributions of predicted total arsenic amounts in urine with those derived using biomarker measurements from the NHEXAS — Region V study: the population distributions of urinary total arsenic levels calculated through MENTOR and from the NHEXAS measurements are in general qualitative agreement. Observed differences are due to various factors, such as interindividual variation in arsenic metabolism in humans, that are not fully accounted for in the current model implementation but can be incorporated in the future, in the open framework of MENTOR. The present study demonstrates that integrated source-to-dose modeling for arsenic can not only provide estimates of the relative contributions of multipathway exposure routes to the total exposure estimates, but can also estimate internal target tissue doses for speciated organic and inorganic arsenic, which can eventually be used to improve evaluation of health risks associated with exposures to arsenic from multiple sources, routes, and pathways. PMID:18073786

Estimation of 1945 to 1957 food consumption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, D.M.; Bates, D.J.; Marsh, T.L.

This report details the methods used and the results of the study on the estimated historic levels of food consumption by individuals in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) study area from 1945--1957. This period includes the time of highest releases from Hanford and is the period for which data are being collected in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study. These estimates provide the food-consumption inputs for the HEDR database of individual diets. This database will be an input file in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Code (HEDRIC) computer model that will be used to calculate the radiation dose. Themore » report focuses on fresh milk, eggs, lettuce, and spinach. These foods were chosen because they have been found to be significant contributors to radiation dose based on the Technical Steering Panel dose decision level.« less

SU-F-J-14: Kilovoltage Cone-Beam CT Dose Estimation of Varian On-Board Imager Using GMctdospp Monte Carlo Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, S; Rangaraj, D

2016-06-15

Purpose: Although cone-beam CT (CBCT) imaging became popular in radiation oncology, its imaging dose estimation is still challenging. The goal of this study is to assess the kilovoltage CBCT doses using GMctdospp - an EGSnrc based Monte Carlo (MC) framework. Methods: Two Varian OBI x-ray tube models were implemented in the GMctpdospp framework of EGSnrc MC System. The x-ray spectrum of 125 kVp CBCT beam was acquired from an EGSnrc/BEAMnrc simulation and validated with IPEM report 78. Then, the spectrum was utilized as an input spectrum in GMctdospp dose calculations. Both full and half bowtie pre-filters of the OBI systemmore » were created by using egs-prism module. The x-ray tube MC models were verified by comparing calculated dosimetric profiles (lateral and depth) to ion chamber measurements for a static x-ray beam irradiation to a cuboid water phantom. An abdominal CBCT imaging doses was simulated in GMctdospp framework using a 5-year-old anthropomorphic phantom. The organ doses and effective dose (ED) from the framework were assessed and compared to the MOSFET measurements and convolution/superposition dose calculations. Results: The lateral and depth dose profiles in the water cuboid phantom were well matched within 6% except a few areas - left shoulder of the half bowtie lateral profile and surface of water phantom. The organ doses and ED from the MC framework were found to be closer to MOSFET measurements and CS calculations within 2 cGy and 5 mSv respectively. Conclusion: This study implemented and validated the Varian OBI x-ray tube models in the GMctdospp MC framework using a cuboid water phantom and CBCT imaging doses were also evaluated in a 5-year-old anthropomorphic phantom. In future study, various CBCT imaging protocols will be implemented and validated and consequently patient CT images will be used to estimate the CBCT imaging doses in patients.« less

Peak skin and eye lens radiation dose from brain perfusion CT based on Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H; Villablanca, J Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H; Cody, Dianna D; Stevens, Donna M; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J; Turner, Adam C; Khatonabadi, Maryam; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2012-02-01

The purpose of our study was to accurately estimate the radiation dose to skin and the eye lens from clinical CT brain perfusion studies, investigate how well scanner output (expressed as volume CT dose index [CTDI(vol)]) matches these estimated doses, and investigate the efficacy of eye lens dose reduction techniques. Peak skin dose and eye lens dose were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation methods on a voxelized patient model and 64-MDCT scanners from four major manufacturers. A range of clinical protocols was evaluated. CTDI(vol) for each scanner was obtained from the scanner console. Dose reduction to the eye lens was evaluated for various gantry tilt angles as well as scan locations. Peak skin dose and eye lens dose ranged from 81 mGy to 348 mGy, depending on the scanner and protocol used. Peak skin dose and eye lens dose were observed to be 66-79% and 59-63%, respectively, of the CTDI(vol) values reported by the scanners. The eye lens dose was significantly reduced when the eye lenses were not directly irradiated. CTDI(vol) should not be interpreted as patient dose; this study has shown it to overestimate dose to the skin or eye lens. These results may be used to provide more accurate estimates of actual dose to ensure that protocols are operated safely below thresholds. Tilting the gantry or moving the scanning region further away from the eyes are effective for reducing lens dose in clinical practice. These actions should be considered when they are consistent with the clinical task and patient anatomy.

Optimal design of clinical trials with biologics using dose-time-response models.

PubMed

Lange, Markus R; Schmidli, Heinz

2014-12-30

Biologics, in particular monoclonal antibodies, are important therapies in serious diseases such as cancer, psoriasis, multiple sclerosis, or rheumatoid arthritis. While most conventional drugs are given daily, the effect of monoclonal antibodies often lasts for months, and hence, these biologics require less frequent dosing. A good understanding of the time-changing effect of the biologic for different doses is needed to determine both an adequate dose and an appropriate time-interval between doses. Clinical trials provide data to estimate the dose-time-response relationship with semi-mechanistic nonlinear regression models. We investigate how to best choose the doses and corresponding sample size allocations in such clinical trials, so that the nonlinear dose-time-response model can be precisely estimated. We consider both local and conservative Bayesian D-optimality criteria for the design of clinical trials with biologics. For determining the optimal designs, computer-intensive numerical methods are needed, and we focus here on the particle swarm optimization algorithm. This metaheuristic optimizer has been successfully used in various areas but has only recently been applied in the optimal design context. The equivalence theorem is used to verify the optimality of the designs. The methodology is illustrated based on results from a clinical study in patients with gout, treated by a monoclonal antibody. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SU-E-T-248: An Extended Generalized Equivalent Uniform Dose Accounting for Dose-Range Dependency of Radio-Biological Parameters.

PubMed

Troeller, A; Soehn, M; Yan, D

2012-06-01

Introducing an extended, phenomenological, generalized equivalent uniform dose (eEUD) that incorporates multiple volume-effect parameters for different dose-ranges. The generalized EUD (gEUD) was introduced as an estimate of the EUD that incorporates a single, tissue-specific parameter - the volume-effect-parameter (VEP) 'a'. As a purely phenomenological concept, its radio-biological equivalency to a given inhomogeneous dose distribution is not a priori clear and mechanistic models based on radio-biological parameters are assumed to better resemble the underlying biology. However, for normal organs mechanistic models are hard to derive, since the structural organization of the tissue plays a significant role. Consequently, phenomenological approaches might be especially useful in order to describe dose-response for normal tissues. However, the single parameter used to estimate the gEUD may not suffice in accurately representing more complex biological effects that have been discussed in the literature. For instance, radio-biological parameters and hence the effects of fractionation are known to be dose-range dependent. Therefore, we propose an extended phenomenological eEUD formula that incorporates multiple VEPs accounting for dose-range dependency. The eEUD introduced is a piecewise polynomial expansion of the gEUD formula. In general, it allows for an arbitrary number of VEPs, each valid for a certain dose-range. We proved that the formula fulfills required mathematical and physical criteria such as invertibility of the underlying dose-effect and continuity in dose. Furthermore, it contains the gEUD as a special case, if all VEPs are equal to 'a' from the gEUD model. The eEUD is a concept that expands the gEUD such that it can theoretically represent dose-range dependent effects. Its practicality, however, remains to be shown. As a next step, this will be done by estimating the eEUD from patient data using maximum-likelihood based NTCP modelling in the same way it is commonly done for the gEUD. © 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Accounting for Shared and Unshared Dosimetric Uncertainties in the Dose Response for Ultrasound-Detected Thyroid Nodules after Exposure to Radioactive Fallout

PubMed Central

Hoffman, F. Owen; Moroz, Brian; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Bouville, André; Beck, Harold; Luckyanov, Nicholas; Weinstock, Robert M.; Simon, Steven L.

2015-01-01

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semi-palatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point “best estimates”. In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic study considering all known sources of shared and unshared errors in dose estimation and using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for analysis of the dose response. PMID:25574587

Assessment of the point-source method for estimating dose rates to members of the public from exposure to patients with 131I thyroid treatment

DOE PAGES

Dewji, Shaheen Azim; Bellamy, Michael B.; Hertel, Nolan E.; ...

2015-09-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) initiated a contract with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to calculate radiation dose rates to members of the public that may result from exposure to patients recently administered iodine-131 ( 131I) as part of medical therapy. The main purpose was to compare dose rate estimates based on a point source and target with values derived from more realistic simulations that considered the time-dependent distribution of 131I in the patient and attenuation of emitted photons by the patient’s tissues. The external dose rate estimates were derived using Monte Carlo methods and two representations of themore » Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs, previously developed by ORNL and the USNRC, to model the patient and a nearby member of the public. Dose rates to tissues and effective dose rates were calculated for distances ranging from 10 to 300 cm between the phantoms and compared to estimates based on the point-source method, as well as to results of previous studies that estimated exposure from 131I patients. The point-source method overestimates dose rates to members of the public in very close proximity to an 131I patient but is a broadly accurate method of dose rate estimation at separation distances of 300 cm or more at times closer to administration.« less

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.

2011-01-01

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Space radiation dose estimates on the surface of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Wilson, John W.

1990-01-01

The Langley cosmic ray transport code and the Langley nucleon transport code (BRYNTRN) are used to quantify the transport and attenuation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar proton flares through the Martian atmosphere. Surface doses are estimated using both a low density and a high density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere which, in the vertical direction, provides a total of 16 g/sq cm and 22 g/sq cm of protection, respectively. At the Mars surface during the solar minimum cycle, a blood-forming organ (BFO) dose equivalent of 10.5 to 12 rem/yr due to galactic cosmic ray transport and attenuation is calculated. Estimates of the BFO dose equivalents which would have been incurred from the three large solar flare events of August 1972, November 1960, and February 1956 are also calculated at the surface. Results indicate surface BFO dose equivalents of approximately 2 to 5, 5 to 7, and 8 to 10 rem per event, respectively. Doses are also estimated at altitudes up to 12 km above the Martian surface where the atmosphere will provide less total protection.

A population pharmacokinetic model of AT9283 in adults and children to predict the maximum tolerated dose in children with leukaemia.

PubMed

Duong, Janna K; Griffin, Melanie J; Hargrave, Darren; Vormoor, Josef; Edwards, David; Boddy, Alan V

2017-08-01

AT9283 is used to treat patients with solid tumours and patients with leukaemia. However, the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) for children with leukaemia remains unknown due to early termination of the Phase I trial. The aim of this study was to develop a population model of AT9283 to describe the pharmacokinetics in adults and children and to estimate the MTD in children with leukaemia. Data from Phase I dose-escalation studies in adults and children were used to build a population pharmacokinetic model (NONMEM v7.3). Potential covariates investigated included body weight, body surface area (BSA), glomerular filtration rate (GFR), age and sex. Model-derived area under the concentration-time curve was used to investigate the relationship between dose and exposure in adults and children. The plasma concentrations of AT9283 (n = 1770) from 92 patients (53 adults, 39 children) were used to build a two-compartment model with all pharmacokinetic parameters scaled using body weight. Renal function (GFR), but not BSA, was a significant covariate for the clearance of AT9283. In children with leukaemia (median weight 16 kg), a flat dose of 500 mg 72 h -1 provided similar drug exposures at the MTD as the adult population. The estimated MTD for children with leukaemia, therefore, is 30 mg kg -1  72 h -1 . For adults, GFR was a significant predictor of clearance, whilst body-weight based dosing was more useful than BSA in determining the drug exposure in children. The MTD was estimated to be 30 mg kg -1  72 h -1 children with leukaemia. © 2017 The British Pharmacological Society.

Development of PARMA: PHITS-based analytical radiation model in the atmosphere.

PubMed

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Niita, Koji; Endo, Akira; Sihver, Lembit

2008-08-01

Estimation of cosmic-ray spectra in the atmosphere has been essential for the evaluation of aviation doses. We therefore calculated these spectra by performing Monte Carlo simulation of cosmic-ray propagation in the atmosphere using the PHITS code. The accuracy of the simulation was well verified by experimental data taken under various conditions, even near sea level. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the simulation results, we proposed an analytical model for estimating the cosmic-ray spectra of neutrons, protons, helium ions, muons, electrons, positrons and photons applicable to any location in the atmosphere at altitudes below 20 km. Our model, named PARMA, enables us to calculate the cosmic radiation doses rapidly with a precision equivalent to that of the Monte Carlo simulation, which requires much more computational time. With these properties, PARMA is capable of improving the accuracy and efficiency of the cosmic-ray exposure dose estimations not only for aircrews but also for the public on the ground.

Mathematical modeling improves EC50 estimations from classical dose-response curves.

PubMed

Nyman, Elin; Lindgren, Isa; Lövfors, William; Lundengård, Karin; Cervin, Ida; Sjöström, Theresia Arbring; Altimiras, Jordi; Cedersund, Gunnar

2015-03-01

The β-adrenergic response is impaired in failing hearts. When studying β-adrenergic function in vitro, the half-maximal effective concentration (EC50 ) is an important measure of ligand response. We previously measured the in vitro contraction force response of chicken heart tissue to increasing concentrations of adrenaline, and observed a decreasing response at high concentrations. The classical interpretation of such data is to assume a maximal response before the decrease, and to fit a sigmoid curve to the remaining data to determine EC50 . Instead, we have applied a mathematical modeling approach to interpret the full dose-response curve in a new way. The developed model predicts a non-steady-state caused by a short resting time between increased concentrations of agonist, which affect the dose-response characterization. Therefore, an improved estimate of EC50 may be calculated using steady-state simulations of the model. The model-based estimation of EC50 is further refined using additional time-resolved data to decrease the uncertainty of the prediction. The resulting model-based EC50 (180-525 nm) is higher than the classically interpreted EC50 (46-191 nm). Mathematical modeling thus makes it possible to re-interpret previously obtained datasets, and to make accurate estimates of EC50 even when steady-state measurements are not experimentally feasible. The mathematical models described here have been submitted to the JWS Online Cellular Systems Modelling Database, and may be accessed at http://jjj.bio.vu.nl/database/nyman. © 2015 FEBS.

Prospective estimation of organ dose in CT under tube current modulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Xiaoyu, E-mail: xt3@duke.edu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul

Purpose: Computed tomography (CT) has been widely used worldwide as a tool for medical diagnosis and imaging. However, despite its significant clinical benefits, CT radiation dose at the population level has become a subject of public attention and concern. In this light, optimizing radiation dose has become a core responsibility for the CT community. As a fundamental step to manage and optimize dose, it may be beneficial to have accurate and prospective knowledge about the radiation dose for an individual patient. In this study, the authors developed a framework to prospectively estimate organ dose for chest and abdominopelvic CT examsmore » under tube current modulation (TCM). Methods: The organ dose is mainly dependent on two key factors: patient anatomy and irradiation field. A prediction process was developed to accurately model both factors. To model the anatomical diversity and complexity in the patient population, the authors used a previously developed library of computational phantoms with broad distributions of sizes, ages, and genders. A selected clinical patient, represented by a computational phantom in the study, was optimally matched with another computational phantom in the library to obtain a representation of the patient’s anatomy. To model the irradiation field, a previously validated Monte Carlo program was used to model CT scanner systems. The tube current profiles were modeled using a ray-tracing program as previously reported that theoretically emulated the variability of modulation profiles from major CT machine manufacturers Li et al., [Phys. Med. Biol. 59, 4525–4548 (2014)]. The prediction of organ dose was achieved using the following process: (1) CTDI{sub vol}-normalized-organ dose coefficients (h{sub organ}) for fixed tube current were first estimated as the prediction basis for the computational phantoms; (2) each computation phantom, regarded as a clinical patient, was optimally matched with one computational phantom in the library; (3) to account for the effect of the TCM scheme, a weighted organ-specific CTDI{sub vol} [denoted as (CTDI{sub vol}){sub organ,weighted}] was computed for each organ based on the TCM profile and the anatomy of the “matched” phantom; (4) the organ dose was predicted by multiplying the weighted organ-specific CTDI{sub vol} with the organ dose coefficients (h{sub organ}). To quantify the prediction accuracy, each predicted organ dose was compared with the corresponding organ dose simulated from the Monte Carlo program with the TCM profile explicitly modeled. Results: The predicted organ dose showed good agreements with the simulated organ dose across all organs and modulation profiles. The average percentage error in organ dose estimation was generally within 20% across all organs and modulation profiles, except for organs located in the pelvic and shoulder regions. For an average CTDI{sub vol} of a CT exam of 10 mGy, the average error at full modulation strength (α = 1) across all organs was 0.91 mGy for chest exams, and 0.82 mGy for abdominopelvic exams. Conclusions: This study developed a quantitative model to predict organ dose for clinical chest and abdominopelvic scans. Such information may aid in the design of optimized CT protocols in relation to a targeted level of image quality.« less

Proposed biokinetic model for phosphorus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, Richard Wayne

2014-06-04

This paper reviews data related to the biokinetics of phosphorus in the human body and proposes a biokinetic model for systemic phosphorus for use in updated International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) guidance on occupational intake of radionuclides. Compared with the ICRP s current occupational model for phosphorus (Publication 68, 1994) the proposed model provides a more realistic description of the paths of movement of phosphorus in the body and improved consistency with experimental, medical, and environmental data on the time-dependent distribution and retention of phosphorus following uptake to blood. For acute uptake of 32P to blood, the proposed modelmore » yields roughly a 50% decrease in dose estimates for bone surface and red marrow and a 6-fold increase in estimates for liver and kidney compared with the biokinetic model of Publication 68 (applying Publication 68 dosimetric models in both sets of calculations). For acute uptake of 33P to blood, the proposed model yields roughly a 50% increase in dose estimates for bone surface and red marrow and a 7-fold increase in estimates for liver and kidney compared with the model of Publication 68.« less

Personalized State-space Modeling of Glucose Dynamics for Type 1 Diabetes Using Continuously Monitored Glucose, Insulin Dose, and Meal Intake: An Extended Kalman Filter Approach.

PubMed

Wang, Qian; Molenaar, Peter; Harsh, Saurabh; Freeman, Kenneth; Xie, Jinyu; Gold, Carol; Rovine, Mike; Ulbrecht, Jan

2014-03-01

An essential component of any artificial pancreas is on the prediction of blood glucose levels as a function of exogenous and endogenous perturbations such as insulin dose, meal intake, and physical activity and emotional tone under natural living conditions. In this article, we present a new data-driven state-space dynamic model with time-varying coefficients that are used to explicitly quantify the time-varying patient-specific effects of insulin dose and meal intake on blood glucose fluctuations. Using the 3-variate time series of glucose level, insulin dose, and meal intake of an individual type 1 diabetic subject, we apply an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate time-varying coefficients of the patient-specific state-space model. We evaluate our empirical modeling using (1) the FDA-approved UVa/Padova simulator with 30 virtual patients and (2) clinical data of 5 type 1 diabetic patients under natural living conditions. Compared to a forgetting-factor-based recursive ARX model of the same order, the EKF model predictions have higher fit, and significantly better temporal gain and J index and thus are superior in early detection of upward and downward trends in glucose. The EKF based state-space model developed in this article is particularly suitable for model-based state-feedback control designs since the Kalman filter estimates the state variable of the glucose dynamics based on the measured glucose time series. In addition, since the model parameters are estimated in real time, this model is also suitable for adaptive control. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

Estimation of computed tomography dose index in cone beam computed tomography: MOSFET measurements and Monte Carlo simulations.

PubMed

Kim, Sangroh; Yoshizumi, Terry; Toncheva, Greta; Yoo, Sua; Yin, Fang-Fang; Frush, Donald

2010-05-01

To address the lack of accurate dose estimation method in cone beam computed tomography (CBCT), we performed point dose metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) measurements and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. A Varian On-Board Imager (OBI) was employed to measure point doses in the polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) CT phantoms with MOSFETs for standard and low dose modes. A MC model of the OBI x-ray tube was developed using BEAMnrc/EGSnrc MC system and validated by the half value layer, x-ray spectrum and lateral and depth dose profiles. We compared the weighted computed tomography dose index (CTDIw) between MOSFET measurements and MC simulations. The CTDIw was found to be 8.39 cGy for the head scan and 4.58 cGy for the body scan from the MOSFET measurements in standard dose mode, and 1.89 cGy for the head and 1.11 cGy for the body in low dose mode, respectively. The CTDIw from MC compared well to the MOSFET measurements within 5% differences. In conclusion, a MC model for Varian CBCT has been established and this approach may be easily extended from the CBCT geometry to multi-detector CT geometry.

Estimating differences in volumetric flat bone growth in pediatric patients by radiation treatment method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hua Chiaho; Shukla, Hemant I.; Merchant, Thomas E.

2007-02-01

Purpose: To estimate potential differences in volumetric bone growth in children with sarcoma treated with intensity-modulated (IMRT) and conformal (CRT) radiation therapy using an empiric dose-effect model. Methods and Materials: A random coefficient model was used to estimate potential volumetric bone growth of 36 pelvic bones (ischiopubis and ilium) from 11 patients 4 years after radiotherapy. The model incorporated patient age, pretreatment bone volume, integral dose >35 Gy, and time since completion of radiation therapy. Three dosimetry plans were entered into the model: the actual CRT/IMRT plan, a nontreated comparable IMRT/CRT plan, and an idealized plan in which dose wasmore » delivered only to the planning target volume. The results were compared with modeled normal bone growth. Results: The model predicted that by using the idealized, IMRT, and CRT approaches, patients would maintain 93%, 87%, and 84%, respectively (p = 0.06), of their expected normal growth. Patients older than 10 years would maintain 98% of normal growth, regardless of treatment method. Those younger than 10 years would maintain 87% (idealized), 76% (IMRT), or 70% (CRT) of their expected growth (p = 0.015). Post hoc testing (Tukey) revealed that the CRT and IMRT approaches differed significantly from the idealized one but not from each other. Conclusions: Dose-effect models facilitate the comparison of treatment methods and potential interventions. Although treatment methods do not alter the growth of flat bones in older pediatric patients, they may significantly impact bone growth in children younger than age 10 years, especially as we move toward techniques with high conformity and sharper dose gradient.« less

Organ doses for reference pediatric and adolescent patients undergoing computed tomography estimated by Monte Carlo simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Choonsik; Kim, Kwang Pyo; Long, Daniel J.

Purpose: To establish an organ dose database for pediatric and adolescent reference individuals undergoing computed tomography (CT) examinations by using Monte Carlo simulation. The data will permit rapid estimates of organ and effective doses for patients of different age, gender, examination type, and CT scanner model. Methods: The Monte Carlo simulation model of a Siemens Sensation 16 CT scanner previously published was employed as a base CT scanner model. A set of absorbed doses for 33 organs/tissues normalized to the product of 100 mAs and CTDI{sub vol} (mGy/100 mAs mGy) was established by coupling the CT scanner model with age-dependentmore » reference pediatric hybrid phantoms. A series of single axial scans from the top of head to the feet of the phantoms was performed at a slice thickness of 10 mm, and at tube potentials of 80, 100, and 120 kVp. Using the established CTDI{sub vol}- and 100 mAs-normalized dose matrix, organ doses for different pediatric phantoms undergoing head, chest, abdomen-pelvis, and chest-abdomen-pelvis (CAP) scans with the Siemens Sensation 16 scanner were estimated and analyzed. The results were then compared with the values obtained from three independent published methods: CT-Expo software, organ dose for abdominal CT scan derived empirically from patient abdominal circumference, and effective dose per dose-length product (DLP). Results: Organ and effective doses were calculated and normalized to 100 mAs and CTDI{sub vol} for different CT examinations. At the same technical setting, dose to the organs, which were entirely included in the CT beam coverage, were higher by from 40 to 80% for newborn phantoms compared to those of 15-year phantoms. An increase of tube potential from 80 to 120 kVp resulted in 2.5-2.9-fold greater brain dose for head scans. The results from this study were compared with three different published studies and/or techniques. First, organ doses were compared to those given by CT-Expo which revealed dose differences up to several-fold when organs were partially included in the scan coverage. Second, selected organ doses from our calculations agreed to within 20% of values derived from empirical formulae based upon measured patient abdominal circumference. Third, the existing DLP-to-effective dose conversion coefficients tended to be smaller than values given in the present study for all examinations except head scans. Conclusions: A comprehensive organ/effective dose database was established to readily calculate doses for given patients undergoing different CT examinations. The comparisons of our results with the existing studies highlight that use of hybrid phantoms with realistic anatomy is important to improve the accuracy of CT organ dosimetry. The comprehensive pediatric dose data developed here are the first organ-specific pediatric CT scan database based on the realistic pediatric hybrid phantoms which are compliant with the reference data from the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The organ dose database is being coupled with an adult organ dose database recently published as part of the development of a user-friendly computer program enabling rapid estimates of organ and effective dose doses for patients of any age, gender, examination types, and CT scanner model.« less

Analysis of current assessments and perspectives of ESR tooth dosimetry for radiation dose reconstruction of the population residing near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site.

PubMed

Romanyukha, Alex; Schauer, David A; Malikov, Yurii K

2006-02-01

Between 1949 and 1989 the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site (SNTS), an area of 19,000 square km in northeastern Kazakhstan, was the location of over 400 nuclear test explosions with a total explosive energy of 6.6 Mt TNT (trinitrotoluene or trotyl) equivalent. It is estimated that the bulk of the radiation exposure to the population resulted from three tests, conducted in 1949, 1951, and 1953 although estimations of radiation doses received by the local population have varied significantly. Analysis of the published ESR dose reconstruction results for residents of the villages near the SNTS show that they do not correlate well with other methods of dose assessment (e.g. model dose calculation and thermo luminescence dosimetry (TLD) in bricks). The most significant difference in dose estimations was found for the population of Dolon, which was exposed as result of the first Soviet nuclear test in 1949. Published results of ESR measurements in tooth enamel are considerably lower than other dose estimations. Detailed analysis of these results is provided and a possible explanation for this discrepancy and ways to eliminate it are suggested.

Evaluation of Inhaled Versus Deposited Dose Using the Exponential Dose-Response Model for Inhalational Anthrax in Nonhuman Primate, Rabbit, and Guinea Pig.

PubMed

Gutting, Bradford W; Rukhin, Andrey; Mackie, Ryan S; Marchette, David; Thran, Brandolyn

2015-05-01

The application of the exponential model is extended by the inclusion of new nonhuman primate (NHP), rabbit, and guinea pig dose-lethality data for inhalation anthrax. Because deposition is a critical step in the initiation of inhalation anthrax, inhaled doses may not provide the most accurate cross-species comparison. For this reason, species-specific deposition factors were derived to translate inhaled dose to deposited dose. Four NHP, three rabbit, and two guinea pig data sets were utilized. Results from species-specific pooling analysis suggested all four NHP data sets could be pooled into a single NHP data set, which was also true for the rabbit and guinea pig data sets. The three species-specific pooled data sets could not be combined into a single generic mammalian data set. For inhaled dose, NHPs were the most sensitive (relative lowest LD50) species and rabbits the least. Improved inhaled LD50 s proposed for use in risk assessment are 50,600, 102,600, and 70,800 inhaled spores for NHP, rabbit, and guinea pig, respectively. Lung deposition factors were estimated for each species using published deposition data from Bacillus spore exposures, particle deposition studies, and computer modeling. Deposition was estimated at 22%, 9%, and 30% of the inhaled dose for NHP, rabbit, and guinea pig, respectively. When the inhaled dose was adjusted to reflect deposited dose, the rabbit animal model appears the most sensitive with the guinea pig the least sensitive species. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

LINKING DERMAL MODELING AND LOADING DATA TO PREDICT LONG-TERM DOSES FROM INTERMITTENT DERMAL CONTACT

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper we assess dermal exposure and dose resulting from intermittent contact with residue-contaminated surfaces. These estimates require an understanding of (1) the quantitative relationship between exposure and absorbed dose; (2) the impact of intermittent exposure on ...

Budget impact of somatostatin analogs as treatment for metastatic gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in US hospitals.

PubMed

Ortendahl, Jesse D; Pulgar, Sonia J; Mirakhur, Beloo; Cox, David; Bentley, Tanya Gk; Phan, Alexandria T

2017-01-01

With the introduction of new therapies, hospitals have to plan spending limited resources in a cost-effective manner. To assist in identifying the optimal treatment for patients with locally advanced or metastatic gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors, budget impact modeling was used to estimate the financial implications of adoption and diffusion of somatostatin analogs (SSAs). A hypothetical cohort of 500 gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumor patients was assessed in an economic model, with the proportion with metastatic disease treated with an SSA estimated using published data. Drug acquisition, preparation, and administration costs were based on national pricing databases and published literature. Octreotide dosing was based on published estimates of real-world data, whereas for lanreotide, real-world dosing was unavailable and we therefore used the highest indicated dosing. Alternative scenarios reflecting the proportion of patients receiving lanreotide or octreotide were considered to estimate the incremental budget impact to the hospital. In the base case, 313 of the initial 500 gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumor patients were treated with an SSA. The model-predicted per-patient cost was US$83,473 for lanreotide and US$89,673 for octreotide. With a hypothetical increase in lanreotide utilization from 5% to 30% of this population, the annual model-projected hospital costs decreased by US$488,615. When varying the inputs in one-way sensitivity analyses, the results were most sensitive to changes in dosing assumptions. Results suggest that factors beyond drug acquisition cost can influence the budget impact to a hospital. When considering preparation and administration time, and real-world dosing, use of lanreotide has the potential to reduce health care expenditures associated with metastatic gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumor treatments.

Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

SU-E-T-129: Are Knowledge-Based Planning Dose Estimates Valid for Distensible Organs?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lalonde, R; Heron, D; Huq, M

2015-06-15

Purpose: Knowledge-based planning programs have become available to assist treatment planning in radiation therapy. Such programs can be used to generate estimated DVHs and planning constraints for organs at risk (OARs), based upon a model generated from previous plans. These estimates are based upon the planning CT scan. However, for distensible OARs like the bladder and rectum, daily variations in volume may make the dose estimates invalid. The purpose of this study is to determine whether knowledge-based DVH dose estimates may be valid for distensible OARs. Methods: The Varian RapidPlan™ knowledge-based planning module was used to generate OAR dose estimatesmore » and planning objectives for 10 prostate cases previously planned with VMAT, and final plans were calculated for each. Five weekly setup CBCT scans of each patient were then downloaded and contoured (assuming no change in size and shape of the target volume), and rectum and bladder DVHs were recalculated for each scan. Dose volumes were then compared at 75, 60,and 40 Gy for the bladder and rectum between the planning scan and the CBCTs. Results: Plan doses and estimates matched well at all dose points., Volumes of the rectum and bladder varied widely between planning CT and the CBCTs, ranging from 0.46 to 2.42 for the bladder and 0.71 to 2.18 for the rectum, causing relative dose volumes to vary between planning CT and CBCT, but absolute dose volumes were more consistent. The overall ratio of CBCT/plan dose volumes was 1.02 ±0.27 for rectum and 0.98 ±0.20 for bladder in these patients. Conclusion: Knowledge-based planning dose volume estimates for distensible OARs are still valid, in absolute volume terms, between treatment planning scans and CBCT’s taken during daily treatment. Further analysis of the data is being undertaken to determine how differences depend upon rectum and bladder filling state. This work has been supported by Varian Medical Systems.« less

Analysis of space radiation exposure levels at different shielding configurations by ray-tracing dose estimation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartashov, Dmitry; Shurshakov, Vyacheslav

2018-03-01

A ray-tracing method to calculate radiation exposure levels of astronauts at different spacecraft shielding configurations has been developed. The method uses simplified shielding geometry models of the spacecraft compartments together with depth-dose curves. The depth-dose curves can be obtained with different space radiation environment models and radiation transport codes. The spacecraft shielding configurations are described by a set of geometry objects. To calculate the shielding probability functions for each object its surface is composed from a set of the disjoint adjacent triangles that fully cover the surface. Such description can be applied for any complex shape objects. The method is applied to the space experiment MATROSHKA-R modeling conditions. The experiment has been carried out onboard the ISS from 2004 to 2016. Dose measurements were realized in the ISS compartments with anthropomorphic and spherical phantoms, and the protective curtain facility that provides an additional shielding on the crew cabin wall. The space ionizing radiation dose distributions in tissue-equivalent spherical and anthropomorphic phantoms and for an additional shielding installed in the compartment are calculated. There is agreement within accuracy of about 15% between the data obtained in the experiment and calculated ones. Thus the calculation method used has been successfully verified with the MATROSHKA-R experiment data. The ray-tracing radiation dose calculation method can be recommended for estimation of dose distribution in astronaut body in different space station compartments and for estimation of the additional shielding efficiency, especially when exact compartment shielding geometry and the radiation environment for the planned mission are not known.

Milk cow feed intake and milk production and distribution estimates for Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beck, D.M.; Darwin, R.F.; Erickson, A.R.

1992-04-01

This report provides initial information on milk production and distribution in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project Phase I study area. The Phase I study area consists of eight countries in central Washington and two countries in northern Oregon. The primary objective of the HEDR Project is to develop estimates of the radiation doses populations could have received from Hanford operations. The objective of Phase I of the project was to determine the feasibility of reconstructing data, models, and development of preliminary dose estimates received by people living in the ten countries surrounding Hanford from 1944 to 1947. Onemore » of the most important contributors to radiation doses from Hanford during the period of interest was radioactive iodine. Consumption of milk from cows that ate vegetation contaminated with iodine is likely the dominant pathway of human exposure. To estimate the doses people could have received from this pathway, it is necessary to estimate the amount of milk that the people living in the Phase I area consumed, the source of the milk, and the type of feed that the milk cows ate. The objective of the milk model subtask is to identify the sources of milk supplied to residents of each community in the study area as well as the sources of feeds that were fed to the milk cows. In this report, we focus on Grade A cow's milk (fresh milk used for human consumption).« less

Characterization of Changes in Gene Expression and Biochemical Pathways at Low Levels of Benzene Exposure

PubMed Central

Thomas, Reuben; Hubbard, Alan E.; McHale, Cliona M.; Zhang, Luoping; Rappaport, Stephen M.; Lan, Qing; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Jinot, Jennifer; Sonawane, Babasaheb R.; Smith, Martyn T.

2014-01-01

Benzene, a ubiquitous environmental pollutant, causes acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Recently, through transcriptome profiling of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), we reported dose-dependent effects of benzene exposure on gene expression and biochemical pathways in 83 workers exposed across four airborne concentration ranges (from <1 ppm to >10 ppm) compared with 42 subjects with non-workplace ambient exposure levels. Here, we further characterize these dose-dependent effects with continuous benzene exposure in all 125 study subjects. We estimated air benzene exposure levels in the 42 environmentally-exposed subjects from their unmetabolized urinary benzene levels. We used a novel non-parametric, data-adaptive model selection method to estimate the change with dose in the expression of each gene. We describe non-parametric approaches to model pathway responses and used these to estimate the dose responses of the AML pathway and 4 other pathways of interest. The response patterns of majority of genes as captured by mean estimates of the first and second principal components of the dose-response for the five pathways and the profiles of 6 AML pathway response-representative genes (identified by clustering) exhibited similar apparent supra-linear responses. Responses at or below 0.1 ppm benzene were observed for altered expression of AML pathway genes and CYP2E1. Together, these data show that benzene alters disease-relevant pathways and genes in a dose-dependent manner, with effects apparent at doses as low as 100 ppb in air. Studies with extensive exposure assessment of subjects exposed in the low-dose range between 10 ppb and 1 ppm are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:24786086

Incorporation of additional radionuclides and the external exposure pathway into the BECAMP (Basic Environmental Compliance and Monitoring Program) radiological assessment model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ng, Yook C.; Rodean, H.C.; Anspaugh, L.R.

The Nevada Applied Ecology Group (NAEG) Model of transport and dose for transuranic radionuclides was modified and expanded for the analysis of radionuclides other than pure alpha-emitters. Doses from internal and external exposures were estimated for the inventories and soil distributions of the individual radionuclides quantified in Areas 2 and 4 of the Nevada Test Site (NTS). We found that the dose equivalents via inhalation to liver, lungs, bone marrow, and bone surface from the plutonium isotopes and /sup 241/Am, those via ingestion to bone marrow and bone surfaces from /sup 90/Sr, and those via ingestion to all the targetmore » organs from /sup 137/Cs were the highest from internal exposures. The effective dose equivalents from /sup 137/Cs, /sup 152/Eu, and /sup 154/Eu were the highest from the external exposures. The /sup 60/Co, /sup 152/Eu, /sup 154/Eu, and /sup 155/Eu dose estimates for external exposures greatly exceeded those for internal exposures. The /sup 60/Co, /sup 90/Sr, and /sup 137/Cs dose equivalents from internal exposures were underestimated due to the adoption of some of the foodchain parameter values originally selected for /sup 239/Pu. Nonetheless, the ingestion pathway contributed significantly to the dose estimates for /sup 90/Sr and /sup 137/Cs, but contributed very much less than external exposures to the dose estimates for /sup 60/Co. Therefore, the use of more appropriate values would not alter the identification of important radionuclides, pathways, target organs, and exposure modes in this analysis. 19 refs., 13 figs., 12 tabs.« less

Mathematical methods in biological dosimetry: the 1996 Iranian accident.

PubMed

Voisin, P; Assaei, R G; Heidary, A; Varzegar, R; Zakeri, F; Durand, V; Sorokine-Durm, I

2000-11-01

To report 18 months of cytogenetic follow-up for an Iranian worker accidentally overexposed to 192Ir, the mathematical extrapolation and comparison with clinical data. Unstable chromosome aberrations were measured using conventional cytogenetic tests by French and Iranian biological dosimetry laboratories on five occasions after the exposure. The decrease in dicentrics over time was analysed mathematically. In addition, Dolphin and Qdr extrapolations were applied to the data to check the exposure estimates. FISH determination of translocation yields was performed twice by the French laboratory and the results compared with the Dolphin and Qdr corrected values. Dose estimates based on dicentrics decreased from 3.1 +/- 0.4 Gy at 5 days after the accident to 0.8 +/- 0.2 Gy at 529 days. This could be fitted by double-exponential regression with an inflexion point between rapid and slow decrease of dicentrics after about 40 days. Dose estimates of 3.4 +/- 0.4 Gy for the Qdr model and 3.6 +/- 0.5 Gy for the Dolphin model were calculated during the post-exposure period and were remarkably stable. FISH translocation data at 26 and 61 days appeared consistent with the Dolphin and Qdr estimates. Dose correction by the Qdr and Dolphin models and translocation scoring appeared consistent with the clinical data and provided better information about the radiation injury than did crude estimates from dicentric scoring alone. Estimation by the Dolphin model of the irradiated fraction of the body seemed unreliable: it correlated better with the fraction of originally irradiated lymphocytes.

Application of biological effective dose (BED) to estimate the duration of symptomatic relief and repopulation dose equivalent in palliative radiotherapy and chemotherapy.

PubMed

Jones, Bleddyn; Cominos, Matilda; Dale, Roger G

2003-03-01

To investigate the potential for mathematic modeling in the assessment of symptom relief in palliative radiotherapy and cytotoxic chemotherapy. The linear quadratic model of radiation effect with the overall treatment time and the daily dose equivalent of repopulation is modified to include the regrowth time after completion of therapy. The predicted times to restore the original tumor volumes after treatment are dependent on the biological effective dose (BED) delivered and the repopulation parameter (K); it is also possible to estimate K values from analysis of palliative treatment response durations. Hypofractionated radiotherapy given at a low total dose may produce long symptom relief in slow-growing tumors because of their low alpha/beta ratios (which confer high fraction sensitivity) and their slow regrowth rates. Cancers that have high alpha/beta ratios (which confer low fraction sensitivity), and that are expected to repopulate rapidly during therapy, are predicted to have short durations of symptom control. The BED concept can be used to estimate the equivalent dose of radiotherapy that will achieve the same duration of symptom relief as palliative chemotherapy. Relatively simple radiobiologic modeling can be used to guide decision-making regarding the choice of the most appropriate palliative schedules and has important implications in the design of radiotherapy or chemotherapy clinical trials. The methods described provide a rationalization for treatment selection in a wide variety of tumors.

Uncertainty of inhalation dose coefficients for representative physical and chemical forms of iodine-131

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, Richard Paul, III

Releases of radioactive material have occurred at various Department of Energy (DOE) weapons facilities and facilities associated with the nuclear fuel cycle in the generation of electricity. Many different radionuclides have been released to the environment with resulting exposure of the population to these various sources of radioactivity. Radioiodine has been released from a number of these facilities and is a potential public health concern due to its physical and biological characteristics. Iodine exists as various isotopes, but our focus is on 131I due to its relatively long half-life, its prevalence in atmospheric releases and its contribution to offsite dose. The assumption of physical and chemical form is speculated to have a profound impact on the deposition of radioactive material within the respiratory tract. In the case of iodine, it has been shown that more than one type of physical and chemical form may be released to, or exist in, the environment; iodine can exist as a particle or as a gas. The gaseous species can be further segregated based on chemical form: elemental, inorganic, and organic iodides. Chemical compounds in each class are assumed to behave similarly with respect to biochemistry. Studies at Oak Ridge National Laboratories have demonstrated that 131I is released as a particulate, as well as in elemental, inorganic and organic chemical form. The internal dose estimate from 131I may be very different depending on the effect that chemical form has on fractional deposition, gas uptake, and clearance in the respiratory tract. There are many sources of uncertainty in the estimation of environmental dose including source term, airborne transport of radionuclides, and internal dosimetry. Knowledge of uncertainty in internal dosimetry is essential for estimating dose to members of the public and for determining total uncertainty in dose estimation. Important calculational steps in any lung model is regional estimation of deposition fractions and gas uptake of radionuclides in various regions of the lung. Variability in regional radionuclide deposition within lung compartments may significantly contribute to the overall uncertainty of the lung model. The uncertainty of lung deposition and biological clearance is dependent upon physiological and anatomical parameters of individuals as well as characteristic parameters of the particulate material. These parameters introduce uncertainty into internal dose estimates due to their inherent variability. Anatomical and physiological input parameters are age and gender dependent. This work has determined the uncertainty in internal dose estimates and the sensitive parameters involved in modeling particulate deposition and gas uptake of different physical and chemical forms of 131I with age and gender dependencies.

Gamma-ray dose from an overhead plume

DOE PAGES

McNaughton, Michael W.; Gillis, Jessica McDonnel; Ruedig, Elizabeth; ...

2017-05-01

Standard plume models can underestimate the gamma-ray dose when most of the radioactive material is above the heads of the receptors. Typically, a model is used to calculate the air concentration at the height of the receptor, and the dose is calculated by multiplying the air concentration by a concentration-to-dose conversion factor. Models indicate that if the plume is emitted from a stack during stable atmospheric conditions, the lower edges of the plume may not reach the ground, in which case both the ground-level concentration and the dose are usually reported as zero. However, in such cases, the dose frommore » overhead gamma-emitting radionuclides may be substantial. Such underestimates could impact decision making in emergency situations. The Monte Carlo N-Particle code, MCNP, was used to calculate the overhead shine dose and to compare with standard plume models. At long distances and during unstable atmospheric conditions, the MCNP results agree with the standard models. As a result, at short distances, where many models calculate zero, the true dose (as modeled by MCNP) can be estimated with simple equations.« less

Inhalation dose assessment of indoor radon progeny using biokinetic and dosimetric modeling and its application to Jordanian population.

PubMed

Al-Jundi, J; Li, W B; Abusini, M; Tschiersch, J; Hoeschen, C; Oeh, U

2011-06-01

High indoor radon concentrations in Jordan result in internal exposures of the residents due to the inhalation of radon and its short-lived progeny. It is therefore important to quantify the annual effective dose and further the radiation risk to the radon exposure. This study describes the methodology and the biokinetic and dosimetric models used for calculation of the inhalation doses exposed to radon progeny. The regional depositions of aerosol particles in the human respiratory tract were firstly calculated. For the attached progeny, the activity median aerodynamic diameters of 50 nm, 230 nm and 2500 nm were chosen to represent the nucleation, accumulation and coarse modes of the aerosol particles, respectively. For the unattached progeny, the activity median thermodynamic diameter of 1 nm was chosen to represent the free progeny nuclide in the room air. The biokinetic models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were used to calculate the nuclear transformations of radon progeny in the human body, and then the dosimetric model was applied to estimate the organ equivalent doses and the effective doses with the specific effective energies derived from the mathematical anthropomorphic phantoms. The dose conversion coefficient estimated in this study was 15 mSv WLM(-1) which was in the range of the values of 6-20 mSv WLM(-1) reported by other investigators. Implementing the average indoor radon concentration in Jordan, the annual effective doses were calculated to be 4.1 mSv y(-1) and 0.08 mSv y(-1) due to the inhalation of radon progeny and radon gas, respectively. The total annual effective dose estimated for Jordanian population was 4.2 mSv y(-1). This high annual effective dose calculated by the dosimetric approach using ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models resulted in an increase of a factor of two in comparison to the value by epidemiological study. This phenomenon was presented by the ICRP in its new published statement on radon. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence supporting radiation hormesis in atomic bomb survivor cancer mortality data.

PubMed

Doss, Mohan

2012-12-01

A recent update on the atomic bomb survivor cancer mortality data has concluded that excess relative risk (ERR) for solid cancers increases linearly with dose and that zero dose is the best estimate for the threshold, apparently validating the present use of the linear no threshold (LNT) model for estimating the cancer risk from low dose radiation. A major flaw in the standard ERR formalism for estimating cancer risk from radiation (and other carcinogens) is that it ignores the potential for a large systematic bias in the measured baseline cancer mortality rate, which can have a major effect on the ERR values. Cancer rates are highly variable from year to year and between adjacent regions and so the likelihood of such a bias is high. Calculations show that a correction for such a bias can lower the ERRs in the atomic bomb survivor data to negative values for intermediate doses. This is consistent with the phenomenon of radiation hormesis, providing a rational explanation for the decreased risk of cancer observed at intermediate doses for which there is no explanation based on the LNT model. The recent atomic bomb survivor data provides additional evidence for radiation hormesis in humans.

Analytical model for out-of-field dose in photon craniospinal irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taddei, Phillip J.; Jalbout, Wassim; Howell, Rebecca M.; Khater, Nabil; Geara, Fady; Homann, Kenneth; Newhauser, Wayne D.

2013-11-01

The prediction of late effects after radiotherapy in organs outside a treatment field requires accurate estimations of out-of-field dose. However, out-of-field dose is not calculated accurately by commercial treatment planning systems (TPSs). The purpose of this study was to develop and test an analytical model for out-of-field dose during craniospinal irradiation (CSI) from photon beams produced by a linear accelerator. In two separate evaluations of the model, we measured absorbed dose for a 6 MV CSI using thermoluminescent dosimeters placed throughout an anthropomorphic phantom and fit the measured data to an analytical model of absorbed dose versus distance outside of the composite field edge. These measurements were performed in two separate clinics—the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (MD Anderson) and the American University of Beirut Medical Center (AUBMC)—using the same phantom but different linear accelerators and TPSs commissioned for patient treatments. The measurement at AUBMC also included in-field locations. Measured dose values were compared to those predicted by TPSs and parameters were fit to the model in each setting. In each clinic, 95% of the measured data were contained within a factor of 0.2 and one root mean square deviation of the model-based values. The root mean square deviations of the mathematical model were 0.91 cGy Gy-1 and 1.67 cGy Gy-1 in the MD Anderson and AUBMC clinics, respectively. The TPS predictions agreed poorly with measurements in regions of sharp dose gradient, e.g., near the field edge. At distances greater than 1 cm from the field edge, the TPS underestimated the dose by an average of 14% ± 24% and 44% ± 19% in the MD Anderson and AUBMC clinics, respectively. The in-field measured dose values of the measurement at AUBMC matched the dose values calculated by the TPS to within 2%. Dose algorithms in TPSs systematically underestimated the actual out-of-field dose. Therefore, it is important to use an improved model based on measurements when estimating out-of-field dose. The model proposed in this study performed well for this purpose in two clinics and may be applicable in other clinics with similar treatment field configurations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, C; Nguyen, G; Chung, Y

Purpose: Ureteroscopy involves fluoroscopy which potentially results in considerable amount of radiation dose to the patient. Purpose of this study was two-fold: (a) to develop the effective dose computational model for obese and non-obese patients undergoing left and right ureteroscopy, and (b) to evaluate the utility of a commercial Monte Carlo software for dose assessment in ureteroscopy. Methods: Organ dose measurements were performed on an adult male anthropomorphic phantom, representing the non-obese patients, with 20 high-sensitivity MOSFET detectors and two 0.18cc ionization chambers placed in selected organs. Fat-equivalent paddings were placed around the abdominal region to simulate for obese patients.more » Effective dose (ED) was calculated using ICRP 103 tissue weighting factors and normalized to the effective dose rate in miliSivert per second (mSv/s). In addition, a commercial Monte Carlo (MC) dose estimation program was used to estimate ED for the non-obese model, with table attenuation correction applied to simulate clinical procedure. Results: For the equipment and protocols involved in this study, the MOSFETderived ED rates for the obese patient model (‘Left’: 0.0092±0.0004 mSv/s; ‘Right’: 0.0086±0.0004 mSv/s) was found to be more than twice as much as that to the non-obese patient model (‘Left’: 0.0041±0.0003 mSv/s; ‘Right’: 0.0036±0.0007 mSv/s). The MC-derived ED rates for the non-obese patient model (‘Left’: 0.0041 mSv/s; ‘Right’: 0.0036 mSv/s; with statistical uncertainty of 1%) showed a good agreement with the MOSFET method. Conclusion: The significant difference in ED rate between the obese and non-obese patient models shows the limitation of directly applying commercial softwares for obese patients and leading to considerable underestimation of ED. Although commercial softwares offer a convenient means of dose estimation, but the utility may be limited to standard-man geometry as the software does not account for table attenuation, obese patient geometry, and differences between the anthropomorphic phantom and MC mathematical phantom.« less

The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Azman, Andrew S.; Luquero, Francisco J.; Ciglenecki, Iza; Grais, Rebecca F.; Sack, David A.; Lessler, Justin

2015-01-01

Background In 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability remains severely limited. Innovative strategies are needed to maximize the health impact and minimize the logistical barriers to using available vaccine. Here we ask under what conditions the use of one dose rather than the internationally licensed two-dose protocol may do both. Methods and Findings Using mathematical models we determined the minimum relative single-dose efficacy (MRSE) at which single-dose reactive campaigns are expected to be as or more effective than two-dose campaigns with the same amount of vaccine. Average one- and two-dose OCV effectiveness was estimated from published literature and compared to the MRSE. Results were applied to recent outbreaks in Haiti, Zimbabwe, and Guinea using stochastic simulations to illustrate the potential impact of one- and two-dose campaigns. At the start of an epidemic, a single dose must be 35%–56% as efficacious as two doses to avert the same number of cases with a fixed amount of vaccine (i.e., MRSE between 35% and 56%). This threshold decreases as vaccination is delayed. Short-term OCV effectiveness is estimated to be 77% (95% CI 57%–88%) for two doses and 44% (95% CI −27% to 76%) for one dose. This results in a one-dose relative efficacy estimate of 57% (interquartile range 13%–88%), which is above conservative MRSE estimates. Using our best estimates of one- and two-dose efficacy, we projected that a single-dose reactive campaign could have prevented 70,584 (95% prediction interval [PI] 55,943–86,205) cases in Zimbabwe, 78,317 (95% PI 57,435–100,150) in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 2,826 (95% PI 2,490–3,170) cases in Conakry, Guinea: 1.1 to 1.2 times as many as a two-dose campaign. While extensive sensitivity analyses were performed, our projections of cases averted in past epidemics are based on severely limited single-dose efficacy data and may not fully capture uncertainty due to imperfect surveillance data and uncertainty about the transmission dynamics of cholera in each setting. Conclusions Reactive vaccination campaigns using a single dose of OCV may avert more cases and deaths than a standard two-dose campaign when vaccine supplies are limited, while at the same time reducing logistical complexity. These findings should motivate consideration of the trade-offs between one- and two-dose campaigns in resource-constrained settings, though further field efficacy data are needed and should be a priority in any one-dose campaign. PMID:26305226

Role of Radiation Dose in the Risk of Secondary Leukemia After a Solid Tumor in Childhood Treated Between 1980 and 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allard, Aurore; Haddy, Nadia; Le Deley, Marie-Cecile

2010-12-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of secondary leukemia as a function of radiation dose, taking into account heterogeneous radiation dose distribution. Methods and Materials: We analyzed a case-control study that investigated the risk of secondary leukemia and myelodysplasia after a solid tumor in childhood; it included 61 patients with leukemia matched with 196 controls. Complete clinical, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy histories were recorded for each patient in the study. Average radiation dose to each of seven bone marrow components for each patient was incorporated into the models, and corresponding risks were summed up. Conditional maximummore » likelihood methods were used to estimate risk parameters. Results: Whatever the model, we failed to evidence a role for the radiation dose to active bone marrow in the risk of later leukemia, myelodysplasia, or myeloproliferative syndrome, when adjusting for epipodophyllotoxin and anthracycline doses. This result was confirmed when fitting models that included total dose of radiation delivered during radiotherapy, when fitting models taking into account dose per fraction, and when restricting the analysis to acute myeloid leukemia. Conclusions: In contrast to results found in similar studies that included children treated before the use of epipodophyllotoxins, this study failed to show a role for radiotherapy in the risk of secondary leukemia after childhood cancer in children treated between 1980 and 1999. This discrepancy was probably due to a competitive mechanism between these two carcinogens.« less

Estimation of Second Primary Cancer Risk After Treatment with Radioactive Iodine for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma.

PubMed

Corrêa, Nilton Lavatori; de Sá, Lidia Vasconcellos; de Mello, Rossana Corbo Ramalho

2017-02-01

An increase in the incidence of second primary cancers is the late effect of greatest concern that could occur in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients treated with radioactive iodine (RAI). The decision to treat a patient with RAI should therefore incorporate a careful risk-benefit analysis. The objective of this work was to adapt the risk-estimation models developed by the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee to local epidemiological characteristics in order to assess the carcinogenesis risk from radiation in a population of Brazilian DTC patients treated with RAI. Absorbed radiation doses in critical organs were also estimated to determine whether they exceeded the thresholds for deterministic effects. A total of 416 DTC patients treated with RAI were retrospectively studied. Four organs were selected for absorbed dose estimation and subsequent calculation of carcinogenic risk: the kidney, stomach, salivary glands, and bone marrow. Absorbed doses were calculated by dose factors (absorbed dose per unit activity administered) previously established and based on standard human models. The lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of incidence of cancer as a function of age, sex, and organ-specific dose was estimated, relating it to the activity of RAI administered in the initial treatment. The salivary glands received the greatest absorbed doses of radiation, followed by the stomach, kidney, and bone marrow. None of these, however, surpassed the threshold for deterministic effects for a single administration of RAI. Younger patients received the same level of absorbed dose in the critical organs as older patients did. The lifetime attributable risk for stomach cancer incidence was by far the highest, followed in descending order by salivary-gland cancer, leukemia, and kidney cancer. RAI in a single administration is safe in terms of deterministic effects because even high-administered activities do not result in absorbed doses that exceed the thresholds for significant tissue reactions. The Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee mathematical models are a practical method of quantifying the risks of a second primary cancer, demonstrating a marked decrease in risk for younger patients with the administration of lower RAI activities and suggesting that only the smallest activities necessary to promote an effective ablation should be administered in low-risk DTC patients.

CURRENT USE AND FUTURE NEEDS OF BIODOSIMETRY IN STUDIES OF LONG-TERM HEALTH RISK FOLLOWING RADIATION EXPOSURE

PubMed Central

Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, André; Kleinerman, Ruth

2009-01-01

Biodosimetry measurements can potentially be an important and integral part of the dosimetric methods used in long-term studies of health risk following radiation exposure. Such studies rely on accurate estimation of doses to the whole body or to specific organs of individuals in order to derive reliable estimates of cancer risk. However, dose estimates based on analytical dose reconstruction (i.e., models) or personnel monitoring measurements, e.g., film-badges, can have substantial uncertainty. Biodosimetry can potentially reduce uncertainty in health risk studies by corroboration of model-based dose estimates or by using them to assess bias in dose models. While biodosimetry has begun to play a more significant role in long-term health risk studies, its use is still generally limited in that context due to one or more factors including, inadequate limits of detection, large inter-individual variability of the signal measured, high per-sample cost, and invasiveness. Presently, the most suitable biodosimetry methods for epidemiologic studies are chromosome aberration frequencies from fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of peripheral blood lymphocytes and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements made on tooth enamel. Both types of measurements, however, are usually invasive and require difficult to obtain biological samples. Moreover, doses derived from these methods are not always directly relevant to the tissues of interest. To increase the value of biodosimetry to epidemiologic studies, a number of issues need to be considered including limits of detection, effects of inhomogenous exposure of the body, how to extrapolate from the tissue sampled to the tissues of interest, and how to adjust dosimetry models applied to large populations based on sparse biodosimetry measurements. The requirements of health risk studies suggest a set of characteristics that, if satisfied by new biodosimetry methods, would increase the overall usefulness of biodosimetry to determining radiation health risks. PMID:20065672

Organ doses for reference adult male and female undergoing computed tomography estimated by Monte Carlo simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Choonsik; Kim, Kwang Pyo; Long, Daniel

2011-03-15

Purpose: To develop a computed tomography (CT) organ dose estimation method designed to readily provide organ doses in a reference adult male and female for different scan ranges to investigate the degree to which existing commercial programs can reasonably match organ doses defined in these more anatomically realistic adult hybrid phantomsMethods: The x-ray fan beam in the SOMATOM Sensation 16 multidetector CT scanner was simulated within the Monte Carlo radiation transport code MCNPX2.6. The simulated CT scanner model was validated through comparison with experimentally measured lateral free-in-air dose profiles and computed tomography dose index (CTDI) values. The reference adult malemore » and female hybrid phantoms were coupled with the established CT scanner model following arm removal to simulate clinical head and other body region scans. A set of organ dose matrices were calculated for a series of consecutive axial scans ranging from the top of the head to the bottom of the phantoms with a beam thickness of 10 mm and the tube potentials of 80, 100, and 120 kVp. The organ doses for head, chest, and abdomen/pelvis examinations were calculated based on the organ dose matrices and compared to those obtained from two commercial programs, CT-EXPO and CTDOSIMETRY. Organ dose calculations were repeated for an adult stylized phantom by using the same simulation method used for the adult hybrid phantom. Results: Comparisons of both lateral free-in-air dose profiles and CTDI values through experimental measurement with the Monte Carlo simulations showed good agreement to within 9%. Organ doses for head, chest, and abdomen/pelvis scans reported in the commercial programs exceeded those from the Monte Carlo calculations in both the hybrid and stylized phantoms in this study, sometimes by orders of magnitude. Conclusions: The organ dose estimation method and dose matrices established in this study readily provides organ doses for a reference adult male and female for different CT scan ranges and technical parameters. Organ doses from existing commercial programs do not reasonably match organ doses calculated for the hybrid phantoms due to differences in phantom anatomy, as well as differences in organ dose scaling parameters. The organ dose matrices developed in this study will be extended to cover different technical parameters, CT scanner models, and various age groups.« less

Inter-Individual Variability in High-Throughput Risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We incorporate realistic human variability into an open-source high-throughput (HT) toxicokinetics (TK) modeling framework for use in a next-generation risk prioritization approach. Risk prioritization involves rapid triage of thousands of environmental chemicals, most which have little or no existing TK data. Chemicals are prioritized based on model estimates of hazard and exposure, to decide which chemicals should be first in line for further study. Hazard may be estimated with in vitro HT screening assays, e.g., U.S. EPA’s ToxCast program. Bioactive ToxCast concentrations can be extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse TK approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with physiological parameters for a virtual population. Here we draw physiological parameters from realistic estimates of distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities in the modern U.S. population, based on the most recent CDC NHANES data. A Monte Carlo approach, accounting for the correlation structure in physiological parameters, is used to estimate ToxCast equivalent doses for the most sensitive portion of the population. To quantify risk, ToxCast equivalent doses are compared to estimates of exposure rates based on Bayesian inferences drawn from NHANES urinary analyte biomonitoring data. The inclusion

An allometric pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics model for BI 893923, a novel IGF-1 receptor inhibitor.

PubMed

Titze, Melanie I; Schaaf, Otmar; Hofmann, Marco H; Sanderson, Michael P; Zahn, Stephan K; Quant, Jens; Lehr, Thorsten

2017-03-01

BI 893923 is a novel IGF1R/INSR inhibitor with promising anti-tumor efficacy. Dose-limiting hyperglycemia has been observed for other IGF1R/INSR inhibitors in clinical trials. To counterbalance anti-tumor efficacy with the risk of hyperglycemia and to determine the therapeutic window, we aimed to develop a translational pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics model for BI 893923. This aimed to translate pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics from animals to humans by an allometrically scaled semi-mechanistic model. Model development was based on a previously published PK/PD model for BI 893923 in mice (Titze et al., Cancer Chemother Pharmacol 77:1303-1314, 13). PK and blood glucose parameters were scaled by allometric principles using body weight as a scaling factor along with an estimation of the parameter exponents. Biomarker and tumor growth parameters were extrapolated from mouse to human using the body weight ratio as scaling factor. The allometric PK/PD model successfully described BI 893923 pharmacokinetics and blood glucose across mouse, rat, dog, minipig, and monkey. BI 893923 human exposure as well as blood glucose and tumor growth were predicted and compared for different dosing scenarios. A comprehensive risk-benefit analysis was conducted by determining the net clinical benefit for each schedule. An oral dose of 2750 mg BI 893923 divided in three evenly distributed doses was identified as the optimal human dosing regimen, predicting a tumor growth inhibition of 90.4% without associated hyperglycemia. Our model supported human therapeutic dose estimation by rationalizing the optimal efficacious dosing regimen with minimal undesired effects. This modeling approach may be useful for PK/PD scaling of other IGF1R/INSR inhibitors.

A survival model for fractionated radiotherapy with an application to prostate cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaider, Marco; Zelefsky, Michael J.; Hanin, Leonid G.; Tsodikov, Alexander D.; Yakovlev, Andrei Y.; Leibel, Steven A.

2001-10-01

This paper explores the applicability of a mechanistic survival model, based on the distribution of clonogens surviving a course of fractionated radiation therapy, to clinical data on patients with prostate cancer. The study was carried out using data on 1100 patients with clinically localized prostate cancer who were treated with three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy. The patients were stratified by radiation dose (group 1: <67.5 Gy; group 2: 67.5-72.5 Gy; group 3: 72.5-77.5 Gy; group 4: 77.5-87.5 Gy) and prognosis category (favourable, intermediate and unfavourable as defined by pre-treatment PSA and Gleason score). A relapse was recorded when tumour recurrence was diagnosed or when three successive prostate specific antigen (PSA) elevations were observed from a post-treatment nadir PSA level. PSA relapse-free survival was used as the primary end point. The model, which is based on an iterated Yule process, is specified in terms of three parameters: the mean number of tumour clonogens that survive the treatment, the mean of the progression time of post-treatment tumour development and its standard deviation. The model parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The fact that the proposed model provides an excellent description both of the survivor function and of the hazard rate is prima facie evidence of the validity of the model because closeness of the two survivor functions (empirical and model-based) does not generally imply closeness of the corresponding hazard rates. The estimated cure probabilities for the favourable group are 0.80, 0.74 and 0.87 (for dose groups 1-3, respectively); for the intermediate group: 0.25, 0.51, 0.58 and 0.78 (for dose groups 1-4, respectively) and for the unfavourable group: 0.0, 0.27, 0.33 and 0.64 (for dose groups 1-4, respectively). The distribution of progression time to tumour relapse was found to be independent of prognosis group but dependent on dose. As the dose increases the mean progression time decreases (41, 28.5, 26.2 and 14.7 months for dose groups 1-4, respectively). This analysis confirms that, in terms of cure rate, dose escalation has a significant positive effect only in the intermediate and unfavourable groups. It was found that progression time is inversely proportional to dose, which means that patients recurring in higher dose groups have shorter recurrence times, yet these groups have better survival, particularly long-term. The explanation for this seemingly illogical observation lies in the fact that less aggressive tumours, potentially recurring after a long period of time, are cured by higher doses and do not contribute to the recurrence pattern. As a result, patients in higher dose groups are less likely to recur; however, if they do, they tend to recur earlier. The estimated hazard rates for prostate cancer pass through a clear-cut maximum, thus revealing a time period with especially high values of instantaneous cancer-specific risk; the estimates appear to be nonproportional across dose strata.

A limited sampling model for estimation of total and unbound mycophenolic acid (MPA) area under the curve (AUC) in hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT).

PubMed

Ng, Juki; Rogosheske, John; Barker, Juliet; Weisdorf, Daniel; Jacobson, Pamala A

2006-06-01

Renal transplant patients with suboptimal mycophenolic acid (MPA) areas under the curves (AUCs) are at greater risk of acute rejection. In hematopoietic cell transplantation, a low MPA AUC is also associated with a higher incidence of acute graft versus host disease. Therefore, a limited sampling model was developed and validated to simultaneously estimate total and unbound MPA AUC0-12 in hematopoietic cell transplantation patients. Intensive pharmacokinetic sampling was performed at steady state between days 3 to 7 posttransplant in 73 adult subjects while receiving prophylactic mycophenolate mofetil 1 g per 12 hours orally or intravenously plus cyclosporine. Total and unbound MPA plasma concentrations were measured, and total and unbound AUC0-12 was determined using noncompartmental analysis. Regression analysis was then performed to build IV and PO, total and unbound AUC0-12 models from the first 34 subjects. The predictive performance of these models was tested in the next 39 subjects. Trough concentrations poorly estimate observed total and unbound AUC0-12 (r<0.48). A model with 3 concentrations (2-, 4-, and 6-hour post start of infusion) best estimated observed total and unbound AUC0-12 after IV dosing (r>0.99). Oral total and unbound AUC0-12 was more difficult to estimate and required at least 4 concentrations (0-, 1-, 2-, and 6-hour post dose) in the model (r>0.85). The predictive performance of the final models was good. Eighty-three percent of IV and 70% of PO AUC0-12 predictions fell within +/-20% of the observed values without significant bias. Trough MPA concentrations do not accurately describe MPA AUC0-12. Three intravenous (2-, 4-, 6-hour post start of infusion) or 4 oral (0-, 1-, 2-, and 6-hour post dose) MPA plasma concentrations measured over a 12-hour dosing interval will estimate the total and unbound AUC0-12 nearly as well as intensive pharmacokinetic sampling with good precision and low bias. This approach simplifies AUC0-12 targeting of MPA post hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Norwalk virus: how infectious is it?

PubMed

Teunis, Peter F M; Moe, Christine L; Liu, Pengbo; Miller, Sara E; Lindesmith, Lisa; Baric, Ralph S; Le Pendu, Jacques; Calderon, Rebecca L

2008-08-01

Noroviruses are major agents of viral gastroenteritis worldwide. The infectivity of Norwalk virus, the prototype norovirus, has been studied in susceptible human volunteers. A new variant of the hit theory model of microbial infection was developed to estimate the variation in Norwalk virus infectivity, as well as the degree of virus aggregation, consistent with independent (electron microscopic) observations. Explicit modeling of viral aggregation allows us to express virus infectivity per single infectious unit (particle). Comparison of a primary and a secondary inoculum showed that passage through a human host does not change Norwalk virus infectivity. We estimate the average probability of infection for a single Norwalk virus particle to be close to 0.5, exceeding that reported for any other virus studied to date. Infected subjects had a dose-dependent probability of becoming ill, ranging from 0.1 (at a dose of 10(3) NV genomes) to 0.7 (at 10(8) virus genomes). A norovirus dose response model is important for understanding its transmission and essential for development of a quantitative risk model. Norwalk virus is a valuable model system to study virulence because genetic factors are known for both complete and partial protection; the latter can be quantitatively described as heterogeneity in dose response models.

AMBIENT PARTICULATE MATTER EXPOSURES: A COMPARISON OF SHEDS-PM EXPOSURE MODEL PREDICTIONS AND ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM MEASUREMENTS COLLECTED DURING NERL'S RTP PM PANEL STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) is currently refining and evaluating a population exposure model for particulate matter (PM), called the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS-PM) model. The SHEDS-PM model estimates the population distribu...

Uncertainties in estimating health risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation.

PubMed

Preston, R Julian; Boice, John D; Brill, A Bertrand; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Conolly, Rory; Hoffman, F Owen; Hornung, Richard W; Kocher, David C; Land, Charles E; Shore, Roy E; Woloschak, Gayle E

2013-09-01

The information for the present discussion on the uncertainties associated with estimation of radiation risks and probability of disease causation was assembled for the recently published NCRP Report No. 171 on this topic. This memorandum provides a timely overview of the topic, given that quantitative uncertainty analysis is the state of the art in health risk assessment and given its potential importance to developments in radiation protection. Over the past decade the increasing volume of epidemiology data and the supporting radiobiology findings have aided in the reduction of uncertainty in the risk estimates derived. However, it is equally apparent that there remain significant uncertainties related to dose assessment, low dose and low dose-rate extrapolation approaches (e.g. the selection of an appropriate dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), the biological effectiveness where considerations of the health effects of high-LET and lower-energy low-LET radiations are required and the transfer of risks from a population for which health effects data are available to one for which such data are not available. The impact of radiation on human health has focused in recent years on cancer, although there has been a decided increase in the data for noncancer effects together with more reliable estimates of the risk following radiation exposure, even at relatively low doses (notably for cataracts and cardiovascular disease). New approaches for the estimation of hereditary risk have been developed with the use of human data whenever feasible, although the current estimates of heritable radiation effects still are based on mouse data because of an absence of effects in human studies. Uncertainties associated with estimation of these different types of health effects are discussed in a qualitative and semi-quantitative manner as appropriate. The way forward would seem to require additional epidemiological studies, especially studies of low dose and low dose-rate occupational and perhaps environmental exposures and for exposures to x rays and high-LET radiations used in medicine. The development of models for more reliably combining the epidemiology data with experimental laboratory animal and cellular data can enhance the overall risk assessment approach by providing biologically refined data to strengthen the estimation of effects at low doses as opposed to the sole use of mathematical models of epidemiological data that are primarily driven by medium/high doses. NASA's approach to radiation protection for astronauts, although a unique occupational group, indicates the possible applicability of estimates of risk and their uncertainty in a broader context for developing recommendations on: (1) dose limits for occupational exposure and exposure of members of the public; (2) criteria to limit exposures of workers and members of the public to radon and its short-lived decay products; and (3) the dosimetric quantity (effective dose) used in radiation protection.

Using physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling and benchmark dose methods to derive an occupational exposure limit for N-methylpyrrolidone.

PubMed

Poet, T S; Schlosser, P M; Rodriguez, C E; Parod, R J; Rodwell, D E; Kirman, C R

2016-04-01

The developmental effects of NMP are well studied in Sprague-Dawley rats following oral, inhalation, and dermal routes of exposure. Short-term and chronic occupational exposure limit (OEL) values were derived using an updated physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for NMP, along with benchmark dose modeling. Two suitable developmental endpoints were evaluated for human health risk assessment: (1) for acute exposures, the increased incidence of skeletal malformations, an effect noted only at oral doses that were toxic to the dam and fetus; and (2) for repeated exposures to NMP, changes in fetal/pup body weight. Where possible, data from multiple studies were pooled to increase the predictive power of the dose-response data sets. For the purposes of internal dose estimation, the window of susceptibility was estimated for each endpoint, and was used in the dose-response modeling. A point of departure value of 390 mg/L (in terms of peak NMP in blood) was calculated for skeletal malformations based on pooled data from oral and inhalation studies. Acceptable dose-response model fits were not obtained using the pooled data for fetal/pup body weight changes. These data sets were also assessed individually, from which the geometric mean value obtained from the inhalation studies (470 mg*hr/L), was used to derive the chronic OEL. A PBPK model for NMP in humans was used to calculate human equivalent concentrations corresponding to the internal dose point of departure values. Application of a net uncertainty factor of 20-21, which incorporates data-derived extrapolation factors, to the point of departure values yields short-term and chronic occupational exposure limit values of 86 and 24 ppm, respectively. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Effect of the ISS Russian segment configuration on the service module radiation environment].

PubMed

Mitrikas, V G

2011-01-01

Mathematical modeling of variations in the Service module radiation environment as a function of ISS Russian segment configuration was carried out using models of the RS modules and a spherical humanoid phantom. ISS reconfiguration impacted significantly only the phantom brought into the transfer compartment (ExT). The Radiation Safety Service prohibition for cosmonauts to stay in this compartment during solar flare events remains valid. In all other instances, error of dose estimation is higher as compared to dose value estimation with consideration for ISS RS reconfiguration.

Supplemental computational phantoms to estimate out-of-field absorbed dose in photon radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, Kyle J.; Tannous, Jaad; Nabha, Racile; Feghali, Joelle Ann; Ayoub, Zeina; Jalbout, Wassim; Youssef, Bassem; Taddei, Phillip J.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a straightforward method of supplementing patient anatomy and estimating out-of-field absorbed dose for a cohort of pediatric radiotherapy patients with limited recorded anatomy. A cohort of nine children, aged 2-14 years, who received 3D conformal radiotherapy for low-grade localized brain tumors (LBTs), were randomly selected for this study. The extent of these patients’ computed tomography simulation image sets were cranial only. To approximate their missing anatomy, we supplemented the LBT patients’ image sets with computed tomography images of patients in a previous study with larger extents of matched sex, height, and mass and for whom contours of organs at risk for radiogenic cancer had already been delineated. Rigid fusion was performed between the LBT patients’ data and that of the supplemental computational phantoms using commercial software and in-house codes. In-field dose was calculated with a clinically commissioned treatment planning system, and out-of-field dose was estimated with a previously developed analytical model that was re-fit with parameters based on new measurements for intracranial radiotherapy. Mean doses greater than 1 Gy were found in the red bone marrow, remainder, thyroid, and skin of the patients in this study. Mean organ doses between 150 mGy and 1 Gy were observed in the breast tissue of the girls and lungs of all patients. Distant organs, i.e. prostate, bladder, uterus, and colon, received mean organ doses less than 150 mGy. The mean organ doses of the younger, smaller LBT patients (0-4 years old) were a factor of 2.4 greater than those of the older, larger patients (8-12 years old). Our findings demonstrated the feasibility of a straightforward method of applying supplemental computational phantoms and dose-calculation models to estimate absorbed dose for a set of children of various ages who received radiotherapy and for whom anatomies were largely missing in their original computed tomography simulations.

Comparison of internal dose estimates obtained using organ-level, voxel S value, and Monte Carlo techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grimes, Joshua, E-mail: grimes.joshua@mayo.edu; Celler, Anna

2014-09-15

Purpose: The authors’ objective was to compare internal dose estimates obtained using the Organ Level Dose Assessment with Exponential Modeling (OLINDA/EXM) software, the voxel S value technique, and Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo dose estimates were used as the reference standard to assess the impact of patient-specific anatomy on the final dose estimate. Methods: Six patients injected with{sup 99m}Tc-hydrazinonicotinamide-Tyr{sup 3}-octreotide were included in this study. A hybrid planar/SPECT imaging protocol was used to estimate {sup 99m}Tc time-integrated activity coefficients (TIACs) for kidneys, liver, spleen, and tumors. Additionally, TIACs were predicted for {sup 131}I, {sup 177}Lu, and {sup 90}Y assuming themore » same biological half-lives as the {sup 99m}Tc labeled tracer. The TIACs were used as input for OLINDA/EXM for organ-level dose calculation and voxel level dosimetry was performed using the voxel S value method and Monte Carlo simulation. Dose estimates for {sup 99m}Tc, {sup 131}I, {sup 177}Lu, and {sup 90}Y distributions were evaluated by comparing (i) organ-level S values corresponding to each method, (ii) total tumor and organ doses, (iii) differences in right and left kidney doses, and (iv) voxelized dose distributions calculated by Monte Carlo and the voxel S value technique. Results: The S values for all investigated radionuclides used by OLINDA/EXM and the corresponding patient-specific S values calculated by Monte Carlo agreed within 2.3% on average for self-irradiation, and differed by as much as 105% for cross-organ irradiation. Total organ doses calculated by OLINDA/EXM and the voxel S value technique agreed with Monte Carlo results within approximately ±7%. Differences between right and left kidney doses determined by Monte Carlo were as high as 73%. Comparison of the Monte Carlo and voxel S value dose distributions showed that each method produced similar dose volume histograms with a minimum dose covering 90% of the volume (D90) agreeing within ±3%, on average. Conclusions: Several aspects of OLINDA/EXM dose calculation were compared with patient-specific dose estimates obtained using Monte Carlo. Differences in patient anatomy led to large differences in cross-organ doses. However, total organ doses were still in good agreement since most of the deposited dose is due to self-irradiation. Comparison of voxelized doses calculated by Monte Carlo and the voxel S value technique showed that the 3D dose distributions produced by the respective methods are nearly identical.« less

An atlas-based organ dose estimator for tomosynthesis and radiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoye, Jocelyn; Zhang, Yakun; Agasthya, Greeshma; Sturgeon, Greg; Kapadia, Anuj; Segars, W. Paul; Samei, Ehsan

2017-03-01

The purpose of this study was to provide patient-specific organ dose estimation based on an atlas of human models for twenty tomosynthesis and radiography protocols. The study utilized a library of 54 adult computational phantoms (age: 18-78 years, weight 52-117 kg) and a validated Monte-Carlo simulation (PENELOPE) of a tomosynthesis and radiography system to estimate organ dose. Positioning of patient anatomy was based on radiographic positioning handbooks. The field of view for each exam was calculated to include relevant organs per protocol. Through simulations, the energy deposited in each organ was binned to estimate normalized organ doses into a reference database. The database can be used as the basis to devise a dose calculator to predict patient-specific organ dose values based on kVp, mAs, exposure in air, and patient habitus for a given protocol. As an example of the utility of this tool, dose to an organ was studied as a function of average patient thickness in the field of view for a given exam and as a function of Body Mass Index (BMI). For tomosynthesis, organ doses can also be studied as a function of x-ray tube position. This work developed comprehensive information for organ dose dependencies across tomosynthesis and radiography. There was a general exponential decrease dependency with increasing patient size that is highly protocol dependent. There was a wide range of variability in organ dose across the patient population, which needs to be incorporated in the metrology of organ dose.

NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

2015-01-01

NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

Analysis of patient CT dose data using virtualdose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Richard

X-ray computer tomography has many benefits to medical and research applications. Recently, over the last decade CT has had a large increase in usage in hospitals and medical diagnosis. In pediatric care, from 2000 to 2006, abdominal CT scans increased by 49 % and chest CT by 425 % in the emergency room (Broder 2007). Enormous amounts of effort have been performed across multiple academic and government groups to determine an accurate measure of organ dose to patients who undergo a CT scan due to the inherent risks with ionizing radiation. Considering these intrinsic risks, CT dose estimating software becomes a necessary tool that health care providers and radiologist must use to determine many metrics to base the risks versus rewards of having an x-ray CT scan. This thesis models the resultant organ dose as body mass increases for patients with all other related scan parameters fixed. In addition to this,this thesis compares a modern dose estimating software, VirtualDose CT to two other programs, CT-Expo and ImPACT CT. The comparison shows how the software's theoretical basis and the phantom they use to represent the human body affect the range of results in organ dose. CT-Expo and ImPACT CT dose estimating software uses a different model for anatomical representation of the organs in the human body and the results show how that approach dramatically changes the outcome. The results categorizes four datasets as compared to the three software types where the appropriate phantom was available. Modeling was done to simulate chest abdominal pelvis scans and whole body scans. Organ dose difference versus body mass index shows as body mass index (BMI) ranges from 23.5 kg/m 2 to 45 kg/m2 the amount of organ dose also trends a percent change from -4.58 to -176.19 %. Comparing organ dose difference with increasing x-ray tube potential from 120 kVp to 140 kVp the percent change in organ dose increases from 55 % to 65 % across all phantoms. In comparing VirtualDose to CT-Expo for organ dose difference versus age, male phantoms show percent difference of -19 % to 25 % for various organs minus bone surface and breast tissues results. Finally, for organ dose difference across all software for average adult phantom the results range from -45 % to 6 % in the comparison of ImPACT CT to VirtualDose and -27 % to 66 % for the comparison of CT-Expo to VirtualDose. In the comparison for increased BMI (done only in VirtualDose), results show that with all other parameters fixed, the organ dose goes down as BMI increases, which is due to the increase in adipose tissue and bulk of the patient model. The range of results when comparing all the three softwares have a wide range, in some cases greater than 150 %, it is evident that using a different anatomical basis for the human phantom and the theoretical basis for the dose estimation will cause fluctuation in the results. Therefore, choosing the software with the most accurate human phantom will provide a closer range to the true dose to the organ.

Fractional poisson--a simple dose-response model for human norovirus.

PubMed

Messner, Michael J; Berger, Philip; Nappier, Sharon P

2014-10-01

This study utilizes old and new Norovirus (NoV) human challenge data to model the dose-response relationship for human NoV infection. The combined data set is used to update estimates from a previously published beta-Poisson dose-response model that includes parameters for virus aggregation and for a beta-distribution that describes variable susceptibility among hosts. The quality of the beta-Poisson model is examined and a simpler model is proposed. The new model (fractional Poisson) characterizes hosts as either perfectly susceptible or perfectly immune, requiring a single parameter (the fraction of perfectly susceptible hosts) in place of the two-parameter beta-distribution. A second parameter is included to account for virus aggregation in the same fashion as it is added to the beta-Poisson model. Infection probability is simply the product of the probability of nonzero exposure (at least one virus or aggregate is ingested) and the fraction of susceptible hosts. The model is computationally simple and appears to be well suited to the data from the NoV human challenge studies. The model's deviance is similar to that of the beta-Poisson, but with one parameter, rather than two. As a result, the Akaike information criterion favors the fractional Poisson over the beta-Poisson model. At low, environmentally relevant exposure levels (<100), estimation error is small for the fractional Poisson model; however, caution is advised because no subjects were challenged at such a low dose. New low-dose data would be of great value to further clarify the NoV dose-response relationship and to support improved risk assessment for environmentally relevant exposures. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain for the U.S.A.

Accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations compared to in-vivo MDCT dosimetry.

PubMed

Bostani, Maryam; Mueller, Jonathon W; McMillan, Kyle; Cody, Dianna D; Cagnon, Chris H; DeMarco, John J; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2015-02-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of a Monte Carlo simulation-based method for estimating radiation dose from multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) by comparing simulated doses in ten patients to in-vivo dose measurements. MD Anderson Cancer Center Institutional Review Board approved the acquisition of in-vivo rectal dose measurements in a pilot study of ten patients undergoing virtual colonoscopy. The dose measurements were obtained by affixing TLD capsules to the inner lumen of rectal catheters. Voxelized patient models were generated from the MDCT images of the ten patients, and the dose to the TLD for all exposures was estimated using Monte Carlo based simulations. The Monte Carlo simulation results were compared to the in-vivo dose measurements to determine accuracy. The calculated mean percent difference between TLD measurements and Monte Carlo simulations was -4.9% with standard deviation of 8.7% and a range of -22.7% to 5.7%. The results of this study demonstrate very good agreement between simulated and measured doses in-vivo. Taken together with previous validation efforts, this work demonstrates that the Monte Carlo simulation methods can provide accurate estimates of radiation dose in patients undergoing CT examinations.

Internal thyroid doses to Fukushima residents—estimation and issues remaining

PubMed Central

Kim, Eunjoo; Kurihara, Osamu; Kunishima, Naoaki; Momose, Takumaro; Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Akashi, Makoto

2016-01-01

Enormous quantities of radionuclides were released into the environment following the disastrous accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in March 2011. It is of great importance to determine the exposure doses received by the populations living in the radiologically affected areas; however, there has been significant difficulty in estimating the internal thyroid dose received through the intake of short-lived radionuclides (mainly, 131I), because of the lack of early measurements on people. An estimation by the National Institute of Radiological Sciences for 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 was thus performed using a combination of the following three sources: thyroid measurement data (131I) for 1080 children examined in the screening campaign, whole-body counter measurement data (134Cs, 137Cs) for 3000 adults, and atmospheric transport dispersion model simulations. In this study, the residents of Futaba town, Iitate village and Iwaki city were shown to have the highest thyroid equivalent dose, and their doses were estimated to be mostly below 30 mSv. However, this result involved a lot of uncertainties and provided only representative values for the residents. The present paper outlines a more recent dose estimation and preliminary analyses of personal behavior data used in the new method. PMID:27538842

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in pediatric chest CT: a study in 30 patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2010-04-01

Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dosereporting system that provides radiation dose and cancer risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. Recently, we reported a method for estimating patientspecific dose from pediatric chest CT. The purpose of this study is to extend that effort to patient-specific risk estimation and to a population of pediatric CT patients. Our study included thirty pediatric CT patients (16 males and 14 females; 0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created based on the patients' clinical CT data. Using a validated Monte Carlo program, organ dose received by the thirty patients from a chest scan protocol (LightSpeed VCT, 120 kVp, 1.375 pitch, 40-mm collimation, pediatric body scan field-of-view) was simulated and used to estimate patient-specific effective dose. Risks of cancer incidence were calculated for radiosensitive organs using gender-, age-, and tissue-specific risk coefficients and were used to derive patientspecific effective risk. The thirty patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7-10.4 mSv/100 mAs and normalized effective risk of 0.5-5.8 cases/1000 exposed persons/100 mAs. Normalized lung dose and risk of lung cancer correlated strongly with average chest diameter (correlation coefficient: r = -0.98 to -0.99). Normalized effective risk also correlated strongly with average chest diameter (r = -0.97 to -0.98). These strong correlations can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk prior to or after an imaging study to potentially guide healthcare providers in justifying CT examinations and to guide individualized protocol design and optimization.

Patient-specific dose estimation for pediatric chest CT

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2008-01-01

Current methods for organ and effective dose estimations in pediatric CT are largely patient generic. Physical phantoms and computer models have only been developed for standard/limited patient sizes at discrete ages (e.g., 0, 1, 5, 10, 15years old) and do not reflect the variability of patient anatomy and body habitus within the same size/age group. In this investigation, full-body computer models of seven pediatric patients in the same size/protocol group (weight: 11.9–18.2kg) were created based on the patients’ actual multi-detector array CT (MDCT) data. Organs and structures in the scan coverage were individually segmented. Other organs and structures were created by morphing existing adult models (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. Organ and effective dose of these patients from a chest MDCT scan protocol (64 slice LightSpeed VCT scanner, 120kVp, 70 or 75mA, 0.4s gantry rotation period, pitch of 1.375, 20mm beam collimation, and small body scan field-of-view) was calculated using a Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated to simulate radiation transport in the same CT system. The seven patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7–5.3mSv∕100mAs (coefficient of variation: 10.8%). Normalized lung dose and heart dose were 10.4–12.6mGy∕100mAs and 11.2–13.3mGy∕100mAs, respectively. Organ dose variations across the patients were generally small for large organs in the scan coverage (<7%), but large for small organs in the scan coverage (9%–18%) and for partially or indirectly exposed organs (11%–77%). Normalized effective dose correlated weakly with body weight (correlation coefficient:r=−0.80). Normalized lung dose and heart dose correlated strongly with mid-chest equivalent diameter (lung: r=−0.99, heart: r=−0.93); these strong correlation relationships can be used to estimate patient-specific organ dose for any other patient in the same size/protocol group who undergoes the chest scan. In summary, this work reported the first assessment of dose variations across pediatric CT patients in the same size/protocol group due to the variability of patient anatomy and body habitus and provided a previously unavailable method for patient-specific organ dose estimation, which will help in assessing patient risk and optimizing dose reduction strategies, including the development of scan protocols. PMID:19175138

Patient-specific dose estimation for pediatric chest CT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul

2008-12-15

Current methods for organ and effective dose estimations in pediatric CT are largely patient generic. Physical phantoms and computer models have only been developed for standard/limited patient sizes at discrete ages (e.g., 0, 1, 5, 10, 15 years old) and do not reflect the variability of patient anatomy and body habitus within the same size/age group. In this investigation, full-body computer models of seven pediatric patients in the same size/protocol group (weight: 11.9-18.2 kg) were created based on the patients' actual multi-detector array CT (MDCT) data. Organs and structures in the scan coverage were individually segmented. Other organs and structuresmore » were created by morphing existing adult models (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. Organ and effective dose of these patients from a chest MDCT scan protocol (64 slice LightSpeed VCT scanner, 120 kVp, 70 or 75 mA, 0.4 s gantry rotation period, pitch of 1.375, 20 mm beam collimation, and small body scan field-of-view) was calculated using a Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated to simulate radiation transport in the same CT system. The seven patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7-5.3 mSv/100 mAs (coefficient of variation: 10.8%). Normalized lung dose and heart dose were 10.4-12.6 mGy/100 mAs and 11.2-13.3 mGy/100 mAs, respectively. Organ dose variations across the patients were generally small for large organs in the scan coverage (<7%), but large for small organs in the scan coverage (9%-18%) and for partially or indirectly exposed organs (11%-77%). Normalized effective dose correlated weakly with body weight (correlation coefficient: r=-0.80). Normalized lung dose and heart dose correlated strongly with mid-chest equivalent diameter (lung: r=-0.99, heart: r=-0.93); these strong correlation relationships can be used to estimate patient-specific organ dose for any other patient in the same size/protocol group who undergoes the chest scan. In summary, this work reported the first assessment of dose variations across pediatric CT patients in the same size/protocol group due to the variability of patient anatomy and body habitus and provided a previously unavailable method for patient-specific organ dose estimation, which will help in assessing patient risk and optimizing dose reduction strategies, including the development of scan protocols.« less

WE-D-303-02: Applications of Volumetric Images Generated with a Respiratory Motion Model Based On An External Surrogate Signal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurwitz, M; Williams, C; Dhou, S

Purpose: Respiratory motion can vary significantly over the course of simulation and treatment. Our goal is to use volumetric images generated with a respiratory motion model to improve the definition of the internal target volume (ITV) and the estimate of delivered dose. Methods: Ten irregular patient breathing patterns spanning 35 seconds each were incorporated into a digital phantom. Ten images over the first five seconds of breathing were used to emulate a 4DCT scan, build the ITV, and generate a patient-specific respiratory motion model which correlated the measured trajectories of markers placed on the patients’ chests with the motion ofmore » the internal anatomy. This model was used to generate volumetric images over the subsequent thirty seconds of breathing. The increase in the ITV taking into account the full 35 seconds of breathing was assessed with ground-truth and model-generated images. For one patient, a treatment plan based on the initial ITV was created and the delivered dose was estimated using images from the first five seconds as well as ground-truth and model-generated images from the next 30 seconds. Results: The increase in the ITV ranged from 0.2 cc to 6.9 cc for the ten patients based on ground-truth information. The model predicted this increase in the ITV with an average error of 0.8 cc. The delivered dose to the tumor (D95) changed significantly from 57 Gy to 41 Gy when estimated using 5 seconds and 30 seconds, respectively. The model captured this effect, giving an estimated D95 of 44 Gy. Conclusion: A respiratory motion model generating volumetric images of the internal patient anatomy could be useful in estimating the increase in the ITV due to irregular breathing during simulation and in assessing delivered dose during treatment. This project was supported, in part, through a Master Research Agreement with Varian Medical Systems, Inc. and Radiological Society of North America Research Scholar Grant #RSCH1206.« less

Ladtap XL Version 2017: A Spreadsheet For Estimating Dose Resulting From Aqueous Releases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Minter, K.; Jannik, T.

LADTAP XL© is an EXCEL© spreadsheet used to estimate dose to offsite individuals and populations resulting from routine and accidental releases of radioactive materials to the Savannah River. LADTAP XL© contains two worksheets: LADTAP and IRRIDOSE. The LADTAP worksheet estimates dose for environmental pathways including external exposure resulting from recreational activities on the Savannah River and internal exposure resulting from ingestion of water, fish, and invertebrates originating from the Savannah River. IRRIDOSE estimates offsite dose to individuals and populations from irrigation of foodstuffs with contaminated water from the Savannah River. In 2004, a complete description of the LADTAP XL© codemore » and an associated user’s manual was documented in LADTAP XL©: A Spreadsheet for Estimating Dose Resulting from Aqueous Release (WSRC-TR-2004-00059) and revised input parameters, dose coefficients, and radionuclide decay constants were incorporated into LADTAP XL© Version 2013 (SRNL-STI-2011-00238). LADTAP XL© Version 2017 is a slight modification to Version 2013 with minor changes made for more user-friendly parameter inputs and organization, updates in the time conversion factors used within the dose calculations, and fixed an issue with the expected time build-up parameter referenced within the population shoreline dose calculations. This manual has been produced to update the code description, verification of the models, and provide an updated user’s manual. LADTAP XL© Version 2017 has been verified by Minter (2017) and is ready for use at the Savannah River Site (SRS).« less

Do Intermediate Radiation Doses Contribute to Late Rectal Toxicity? An Analysis of Data From Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Protocol 94-06

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tucker, Susan L., E-mail: sltucker@mdanderson.org; Dong, Lei; Michalski, Jeff M.

2012-10-01

Purpose: To investigate whether the volumes of rectum exposed to intermediate doses, from 30 to 50 Gy, contribute to the risk of Grade {>=}2 late rectal toxicity among patients with prostate cancer receiving radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Data from 1009 patients treated on Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocol 94-06 were analyzed using three approaches. First, the contribution of intermediate doses to a previously published fit of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model was determined. Next, the extent to which intermediate doses provide additional risk information, after taking the LKB model into account, was investigated. Third, the proportionmore » of rectum receiving doses higher than a threshold, VDose, was computed for doses ranging from 5 to 85 Gy, and a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine which of these parameters were significantly associated with time to Grade {>=}2 late rectal toxicity. Results: Doses <60 Gy had no detectable impact on the fit of the LKB model, as expected on the basis of the small estimate of the volume parameter (n = 0.077). Furthermore, there was no detectable difference in late rectal toxicity among cohorts with similar risk estimates from the LKB model but with different volumes of rectum exposed to intermediate doses. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model selected V75 as the only value of VDose significantly associated with late rectal toxicity. Conclusions: There is no evidence from these data that intermediate doses influence the risk of Grade {>=}2 late rectal toxicity. Instead, the critical doses for this endpoint seem to be {>=}75 Gy. It is hypothesized that cases of Grade {>=}2 late rectal toxicity occurring among patients with V75 less than approximately 12% may be due to a 'background' level of risk, likely due mainly to biological factors.« less

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest CT.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M; Colsher, James G; Frush, Donald P

2011-06-01

To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI(vol)) or dose-length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Organ dose normalized by tube current-time product or CTDI(vol) decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1. RSNA, 2011

The increase in animal mortality risk following exposure to sparsely ionizing radiation is not linear quadratic with dose

DOE PAGES

Haley, Benjamin M.; Paunesku, Tatjana; Grdina, David J.; ...

2015-12-09

The US government regulates allowable radiation exposures relying, in large part, on the seventh report from the committee to estimate the Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR VII), which estimated that most contemporary exposures- protracted or low-dose, carry 1.5 fold less risk of carcinogenesis and mortality per Gy than acute exposures of atomic bomb survivors. This correction is known as the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor for the life span study of atomic bomb survivors (DDREF LSS). As a result, it was calculated by applying a linear-quadratic dose response model to data from Japanese atomic bomb survivors and amore » limited number of animal studies.« less

The increase in animal mortality risk following exposure to sparsely ionizing radiation is not linear quadratic with dose

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haley, Benjamin M.; Paunesku, Tatjana; Grdina, David J.

The US government regulates allowable radiation exposures relying, in large part, on the seventh report from the committee to estimate the Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR VII), which estimated that most contemporary exposures- protracted or low-dose, carry 1.5 fold less risk of carcinogenesis and mortality per Gy than acute exposures of atomic bomb survivors. This correction is known as the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor for the life span study of atomic bomb survivors (DDREF LSS). As a result, it was calculated by applying a linear-quadratic dose response model to data from Japanese atomic bomb survivors and amore » limited number of animal studies.« less

Estimating Likelihood of Fetal In Vivo Interactions Using In ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Tox21/ToxCast efforts provide in vitro concentration-response data for thousands of compounds. Predicting whether chemical-biological interactions observed in vitro will occur in vivo is challenging. We hypothesize that using a modified model from the FDA guidance for drug interaction studies, Cmax/AC50 (i.e., maximal in vivo blood concentration over the half-maximal in in vitro activity concentration), will give a useful approximation for concentrations where in vivo interactions are likely. Further, for doses where maternal blood concentrations are likely to elicit an interaction (Cmax/AC50>0.1), where do the compounds accumulate in fetal tissues? In order to estimate these doses based on Tox21 data, in silico parameters of chemical fraction unbound in plasma and intrinsic hepatic clearance were estimated from ADMET predictor (Simulations-Plus Inc.) and used in the HTTK R-package to obtain Cmax values from a physiologically-based toxicokinetics model. In silico estimated Cmax values predicted in vivo human Cmax with median absolute error of 0.81 for 93 chemicals, giving confidence in the R-package and in silico estimates. A case example evaluating Cmax/AC50 values for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) and glucocorticoid receptor revealed known compounds (glitazones and corticosteroids, respectively) highest on the list at pharmacological doses. Doses required to elicit likely interactions across all Tox21/ToxCast assays were compared to

Improving Low-Dose Blood-Brain Barrier Permeability Quantification Using Sparse High-Dose Induced Prior for Patlak Model

PubMed Central

Fang, Ruogu; Karlsson, Kolbeinn; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

2014-01-01

Blood-brain-barrier permeability (BBBP) measurements extracted from the perfusion computed tomography (PCT) using the Patlak model can be a valuable indicator to predict hemorrhagic transformation in patients with acute stroke. Unfortunately, the standard Patlak model based PCT requires excessive radiation exposure, which raised attention on radiation safety. Minimizing radiation dose is of high value in clinical practice but can degrade the image quality due to the introduced severe noise. The purpose of this work is to construct high quality BBBP maps from low-dose PCT data by using the brain structural similarity between different individuals and the relations between the high- and low-dose maps. The proposed sparse high-dose induced (shd-Patlak) model performs by building a high-dose induced prior for the Patlak model with a set of location adaptive dictionaries, followed by an optimized estimation of BBBP map with the prior regularized Patlak model. Evaluation with the simulated low-dose clinical brain PCT datasets clearly demonstrate that the shd-Patlak model can achieve more significant gains than the standard Patlak model with improved visual quality, higher fidelity to the gold standard and more accurate details for clinical analysis. PMID:24200529

Cytogenetic damages in peripheral blood of monkey lymphocytes under simulation of cosmonauts irradiation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, Vladislav; Ivanov, Alexandr; Barteneva, Svetlana; Snigiryeva, Galina; Shafirkin, Alexandr

Earth modeling of crewmember exposure should be performed for correct estimating radiation hazard during the flight. Such modeling was planned in a monkey experiment for investigating consequences of exposure to a man during an interplanetary flight. It should reflect a chronic impact of galactic cosmic rays and acute and fractional irradiation specified for solar cosmic rays and radiation belts respectively. Due to the difficulty of modeling a chronic impact with the help of a charged particles accelerator it can be used the gamma source. While irradiating big animal groups during a long-term period of time it is preferably to replace chronic irradiation by an equal fractional one. In this case the chosen characteristics of fractional irradiation should ensure the appearances of radiobiological consequences equal to the ones caused by the modeled chronic exposure. So for developing an exposure scheme in the monkey experiment (with Macaca -Rhesus) the model of the acting residual dose, that takes into account repair and recovery processes in the exposed body was used. The total dose value was in the limits from 2.32 Gy up to 3.5 Gy depending on the exposure character. The acting residual dose in all versions of exposure was 2.0 Gy for every monkey. While performing the experiment all the requirements of bioethics for the work with animals were observed. The objects of interest were genomic damages in lymphocytes of monkey's peripheral blood. The data about the CAF during the exposure and at various time moments after exposure particularly directly after the completion of chronicle and fractional irradiation were analyzed. CAF -dose of acute single gamma-irradiation in the range 0 -1.5Gy relationship (calibration curve) was defined in vitro. In addition the rate of the aberrant cells elimination within three months after the irradiation completion was estimated. On the basis of the obtained CAF data we performed verification of applicability of cytogenetic analysis for estimating the monkey gamma -dose exposure in the experiment It was obtained that this method permits to estimate the acting residual dose with accuracy of 30

COMPARISON OF ORGAN DOSES IN HUMAN PHANTOMS: VARIATIONS DUE TO BODY SIZE AND POSTURE.

PubMed

Feng, Xu; Xiang-Hong, Jia; Qian, Liu; Xue-Jun, Yu; Zhan-Chun, Pan; Chun-Xin, Yang

2017-04-20

Organ dose calculations performed using human phantoms can provide estimates of astronauts' health risks due to cosmic radiation. However, the characteristics of such phantoms strongly affect the estimation precision. To investigate organ dose variations with body size and posture in human phantoms, a non-uniform rational B-spline boundary surfaces model was constructed based on cryosection images. This model was used to establish four phantoms with different body size and posture parameters, whose organs parameters were changed simultaneously and which were voxelised with 4 × 4 × 4 mm3 resolution. Then, using Monte Carlo transport code, the organ doses caused by ≤500 MeV isotropic incident protons were calculated. The dose variations due to body size differences within a certain range were negligible, and the doses received in crouching and standing-up postures were similar. Therefore, a standard Chinese phantom could be established, and posture changes cannot effectively protect astronauts during solar particle events. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimation of breast dose reduction potential for organ-based tube current modulated CT with wide dose reduction arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Wanyi; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Agasthya, Greeshma; Segars, W. Paul; Kapadia, Anuj J.; Samei, Ehsan

2017-03-01

This study aimed to estimate the organ dose reduction potential for organ-dose-based tube current modulated (ODM) thoracic CT with wide dose reduction arc. Twenty-one computational anthropomorphic phantoms (XCAT, age range: 27- 75 years, weight range: 52.0-105.8 kg) were used to create a virtual patient population with clinical anatomic variations. For each phantom, two breast tissue compositions were simulated: 50/50 and 20/80 (glandular-to-adipose ratio). A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate the organ dose for standard tube current modulation (TCM) (SmartmA, GE Healthcare) and ODM (GE Healthcare) for a commercial CT scanner (Revolution, GE Healthcare) with explicitly modeled tube current modulation profile, scanner geometry, bowtie filtration, and source spectrum. Organ dose was determined using a typical clinical thoracic CT protocol. Both organ dose and CTDIvol-to-organ dose conversion coefficients (h factors) were compared between TCM and ODM. ODM significantly reduced all radiosensitive organ doses (p<0.01). The breast dose was reduced by 30+/-2%. For h factors, organs in the anterior region (e.g. thyroid, stomach) exhibited substantial decreases, and the medial, distributed, and posterior region either saw an increase or no significant change. The organ-dose-based tube current modulation significantly reduced organ doses especially for radiosensitive superficial anterior organs such as the breasts.

Potential Offsite Radiological Doses Estimated for the Proposed Divine Strake Experiment, Nevada Test Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ron Warren

2006-12-01

An assessment of the potential radiation dose that residents offsite of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) might receive from the proposed Divine Strake experiment was made to determine compliance with Subpart H of Part 61 of Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations, National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities. The Divine Strake experiment, proposed by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, consists of a detonation of 700 tons of heavy ammonium nitrate fuel oil-emulsion above the U16b Tunnel complex in Area 16 of the NTS. Both natural radionuclides suspended, and historicmore » fallout radionuclides resuspended from the detonation, have potential to be transported outside the NTS boundary by wind. They may, therefore, contribute radiological dose to the public. Subpart H states ''Emissions of radionuclides to the ambient air from Department of Energy facilities shall not exceed those amounts that would cause any member of the public to receive in any year an effective dose equivalent of 10 mrem/yr'' (Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] 61.92) where mrem/yr is millirem per year. Furthermore, application for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approval of construction of a new source or modification of an existing source is required if the effective dose equivalent, caused by all emissions from the new construction or modification, is greater than or equal to 0.1 mrem/yr (40 CFR 61.96). In accordance with Section 61.93, a dose assessment was conducted with the computer model CAP88-PC, Version 3.0. In addition to this model, a dose assessment was also conducted by the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This modeling was conducted to obtain dose estimates from a model designed for acute releases and which addresses terrain effects and uses meteorology from multiple locations. Potential radiation dose to a hypothetical maximally exposed individual at the closest NTS boundary to the proposed Divine Strake experiment, as estimated by the CAP88-PC model, was 0.005 mrem with wind blowing directly towards that location. Boundary dose, as modeled by NARAC, ranged from about 0.006 to 0.007 mrem. Potential doses to actual offsite populated locations were generally two to five times lower still, or about 40 to 100 times lower then the 0.1 mrem level at which EPA approval is required pursuant to Section 61.96.« less

Quantitative Assessment of Cancer Risk from Exposure to Diesel Engine Emissions

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative estimates of lung cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions were developed using data from three chronic bioassays with Fischer 344 rats. uman target organ dose was estimated with the aid of a comprehensive dosimetry model. This model accounted for rat-hum...

EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cum...

Bayesian estimation of dose thresholds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groer, P. G.; Carnes, B. A.

2003-01-01

An example is described of Bayesian estimation of radiation absorbed dose thresholds (subsequently simply referred to as dose thresholds) using a specific parametric model applied to a data set on mice exposed to 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons. A Weibull based relative risk model with a dose threshold parameter was used to analyse, as an example, lung cancer mortality and determine the posterior density for the threshold dose after single exposures to 60Co gamma rays or fission neutrons from the JANUS reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The data consisted of survival, censoring times and cause of death information for male B6CF1 unexposed and exposed mice. The 60Co gamma whole-body doses for the two exposed groups were 0.86 and 1.37 Gy. The neutron whole-body doses were 0.19 and 0.38 Gy. Marginal posterior densities for the dose thresholds for neutron and gamma radiation were calculated with numerical integration and found to have quite different shapes. The density of the threshold for 60Co is unimodal with a mode at about 0.50 Gy. The threshold density for fission neutrons declines monotonically from a maximum value at zero with increasing doses. The posterior densities for all other parameters were similar for the two radiation types.

Current activities in the ICRP concerning estimation of radiation doses to patients from radiopharmaceuticals for diagnostic use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsson, S.; Johansson, L.; Leide-Svegborn, S.; Liniecki, J.; Nosske, D.; Riklund, K.; Stabin, M.; Taylor, D.

2011-09-01

A Task Group within the ICRP Committees 2 and 3 is continuously working to improve absorbed dose estimates to patients investigated with radiopharmaceuticals. The work deals with reviews of the literature, initiation of new or complementary studies of the biokinetics of a compound and dose estimates. Absorbed dose calculations for organs and tissues have up to now been carried out using the MIRD formalism. There is still a lack of necessary biokinetic data from measurements in humans. More time series obtained by nuclear medicine imaging techniques such as whole-body planar gamma-camera imaging, SPECT or PET are highly desirable for this purpose. In 2008, a new addendum to ICRP Publication 53 was published under the name of ICRP Publication 106 containing biokinetic data and absorbed dose information to organs and tissues of patients of various ages for radiopharmaceuticals in common use. That report also covers a number of generic models and realistic maximum models covering other large groups of substances (e.g. "123I-brain receptor substances"). Together with ICRP Publication 80, most radiopharmaceuticals in clinical use at the time of publication were covered except the radioiodine labeled compounds for which the ICRP dose estimates are still found in Publication 53. There is an increasing use of new radiopharmaceuticals, especially PET-tracers and the TG has recently finished its work with biokinetic and dosimetric data for 18F-FET, 18F-FLT and 18F-choline. The work continues now with new data for 11C-raclopride, 11C-PiB and 123I-ioflupan as well as re-evaluation of published data for 82Rb-chloride, 18F-fluoride and radioiodide. This paper summarises published ICRP-information on dose to patients from radiopharmaceuticals and gives some preliminary data for substances under review.

Radiobiological Determination of Dose Escalation and Normal Tissue Toxicity in Definitive Chemoradiation Therapy for Esophageal Cancer☆

PubMed Central

Warren, Samantha; Partridge, Mike; Carrington, Rhys; Hurt, Chris; Crosby, Thomas; Hawkins, Maria A.

2014-01-01

Purpose This study investigated the trade-off in tumor coverage and organ-at-risk sparing when applying dose escalation for concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CRT) of mid-esophageal cancer, using radiobiological modeling to estimate local control and normal tissue toxicity. Methods and Materials Twenty-one patients with mid-esophageal cancer were selected from the SCOPE1 database (International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials number 47718479), with a mean planning target volume (PTV) of 327 cm3. A boost volume, PTV2 (GTV + 0.5 cm margin), was created. Radiobiological modeling of tumor control probability (TCP) estimated the dose required for a clinically significant (+20%) increase in local control as 62.5 Gy/25 fractions. A RapidArc (RA) plan with a simultaneously integrated boost (SIB) to PTV2 (RA62.5) was compared to a standard dose plan of 50 Gy/25 fractions (RA50). Dose-volume metrics and estimates of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for heart and lungs were compared. Results Clinically acceptable dose escalation was feasible for 16 of 21 patients, with significant gains (>18%) in tumor control from 38.2% (RA50) to 56.3% (RA62.5), and only a small increase in predicted toxicity: median heart NTCP 4.4% (RA50) versus 5.6% (RA62.5) P<.001 and median lung NTCP 6.5% (RA50) versus 7.5% (RA62.5) P<.001. Conclusions Dose escalation to the GTV to improve local control is possible when overlap between PTV and organ-at-risk (<8% heart volume and <2.5% lung volume overlap for this study) generates only negligible increase in lung or heart toxicity. These predictions from radiobiological modeling should be tested in future clinical trials. PMID:25304796

Prevalence of shigellosis in the U.S.: consistency with dose-response information.

PubMed

Crockett, C S; Haas, C N; Fazil, A; Rose, J B; Gerba, C P

1996-06-01

Every year there are estimated 300000 cases of Shigella in the United States (Bennett et al., 1987, Am. J. Prev. Med. 3, 102-114). A beta-poisson model was fit to human dose-response information on pathogenic Shigella using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Haas, 1983, Am. J. Epidemiol. 118, 573-582). Pooled and separate data sets for the Shigella species were fit to the beta-Poisson model and 95% confidence limits and regions were calculated. Shigella dysentariae and Shigella flexneri confidence regions and limits overlapped with each other and with the pooled data set, suggesting that this model can describe Shigella in general. The pooled Shigella model as well as the upper and lower confidence limits of the three data sets showed average exposures based on the estimated U.S. caseload of pathogenic Shigella of 0.01 to 0.014 organisms (confidence limits 0.001-0.05) for a 7-day per annum period of exposure and ranges from 0.07 to 0.1 organisms (confidence limits 0.006-0.4). for a 1-day per annum period of exposure. The plausibility of the pooled dose-response model was then evaluated by comparison with two known cruise ship outbreaks. The pooled model estimated that the two outbreaks studied could have been due to ingestion of 344 (confidence limits 72-915) Shigella cells per meal and 10.5-12 (confidence limits 1-44) Shigella cells per glass of water by passengers.

Accounting for dropout in xenografted tumour efficacy studies: integrated endpoint analysis, reduced bias and better use of animals.

PubMed

Martin, Emma C; Aarons, Leon; Yates, James W T

2016-07-01

Xenograft studies are commonly used to assess the efficacy of new compounds and characterise their dose-response relationship. Analysis often involves comparing the final tumour sizes across dose groups. This can cause bias, as often in xenograft studies a tumour burden limit (TBL) is imposed for ethical reasons, leading to the animals with the largest tumours being excluded from the final analysis. This means the average tumour size, particularly in the control group, is underestimated, leading to an underestimate of the treatment effect. Four methods to account for dropout due to the TBL are proposed, which use all the available data instead of only final observations: modelling, pattern mixture models, treating dropouts as censored using the M3 method and joint modelling of tumour growth and dropout. The methods were applied to both a simulated data set and a real example. All four proposed methods led to an improvement in the estimate of treatment effect in the simulated data. The joint modelling method performed most strongly, with the censoring method also providing a good estimate of the treatment effect, but with higher uncertainty. In the real data example, the dose-response estimated using the censoring and joint modelling methods was higher than the very flat curve estimated from average final measurements. Accounting for dropout using the proposed censoring or joint modelling methods allows the treatment effect to be recovered in studies where it may have been obscured due to dropout caused by the TBL.

Influence of different dose calculation algorithms on the estimate of NTCP for lung complications

PubMed Central

Bäck, Anna

2013-01-01

Due to limitations and uncertainties in dose calculation algorithms, different algorithms can predict different dose distributions and dose‐volume histograms for the same treatment. This can be a problem when estimating the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for patient‐specific dose distributions. Published NTCP model parameters are often derived for a different dose calculation algorithm than the one used to calculate the actual dose distribution. The use of algorithm‐specific NTCP model parameters can prevent errors caused by differences in dose calculation algorithms. The objective of this work was to determine how to change the NTCP model parameters for lung complications derived for a simple correction‐based pencil beam dose calculation algorithm, in order to make them valid for three other common dose calculation algorithms. NTCP was calculated with the relative seriality (RS) and Lyman‐Kutcher‐Burman (LKB) models. The four dose calculation algorithms used were the pencil beam (PB) and collapsed cone (CC) algorithms employed by Oncentra, and the pencil beam convolution (PBC) and anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA) employed by Eclipse. Original model parameters for lung complications were taken from four published studies on different grades of pneumonitis, and new algorithm‐specific NTCP model parameters were determined. The difference between original and new model parameters was presented in relation to the reported model parameter uncertainties. Three different types of treatments were considered in the study: tangential and locoregional breast cancer treatment and lung cancer treatment. Changing the algorithm without the derivation of new model parameters caused changes in the NTCP value of up to 10 percentage points for the cases studied. Furthermore, the error introduced could be of the same magnitude as the confidence intervals of the calculated NTCP values. The new NTCP model parameters were tabulated as the algorithm was varied from PB to PBC, AAA, or CC. Moving from the PB to the PBC algorithm did not require new model parameters; however, moving from PB to AAA or CC did require a change in the NTCP model parameters, with CC requiring the largest change. It was shown that the new model parameters for a given algorithm are different for the different treatment types. PACS numbers: 87.53.‐j, 87.53.Kn, 87.55.‐x, 87.55.dh, 87.55.kd PMID:24036865

Patient-specific Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk for Pediatric Chest CT

PubMed Central

Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0–16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) or dose–length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Results: Organ dose normalized by tube current–time product or CTDIvol decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). Conclusion: The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. © RSNA, 2011 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1 PMID:21467251

Single toxin dose-response models revisited

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demidenko, Eugene, E-mail: eugened@dartmouth.edu

The goal of this paper is to offer a rigorous analysis of the sigmoid shape single toxin dose-response relationship. The toxin efficacy function is introduced and four special points, including maximum toxin efficacy and inflection points, on the dose-response curve are defined. The special points define three phases of the toxin effect on mortality: (1) toxin concentrations smaller than the first inflection point or (2) larger then the second inflection point imply low mortality rate, and (3) concentrations between the first and the second inflection points imply high mortality rate. Probabilistic interpretation and mathematical analysis for each of the fourmore » models, Hill, logit, probit, and Weibull is provided. Two general model extensions are introduced: (1) the multi-target hit model that accounts for the existence of several vital receptors affected by the toxin, and (2) model with a nonzero mortality at zero concentration to account for natural mortality. Special attention is given to statistical estimation in the framework of the generalized linear model with the binomial dependent variable as the mortality count in each experiment, contrary to the widespread nonlinear regression treating the mortality rate as continuous variable. The models are illustrated using standard EPA Daphnia acute (48 h) toxicity tests with mortality as a function of NiCl or CuSO{sub 4} toxin. - Highlights: • The paper offers a rigorous study of a sigmoid dose-response relationship. • The concentration with highest mortality rate is rigorously defined. • A table with four special points for five morality curves is presented. • Two new sigmoid dose-response models have been introduced. • The generalized linear model is advocated for estimation of sigmoid dose-response relationship.« less

Confirmation of model-based dose selection for a Japanese phase III study of rivaroxaban in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients.

PubMed

Kaneko, Masato; Tanigawa, Takahiko; Hashizume, Kensei; Kajikawa, Mariko; Tajiri, Masahiro; Mueck, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

This study was designed to confirm the appropriateness of the dose setting for a Japanese phase III study of rivaroxaban in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), which had been based on model simulation employing phase II study data. The previously developed mixed-effects pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model, which consisted of an oral one-compartment model parameterized in terms of clearance, volume and a first-order absorption rate, was rebuilt and optimized using the data for 597 subjects from the Japanese phase III study, J-ROCKET AF. A mixed-effects modeling technique in NONMEM was used to quantify both unexplained inter-individual variability and inter-occasion variability, which are random effect parameters. The final PK and PK-PD models were evaluated to identify influential covariates. The empirical Bayes estimates of AUC and C(max) from the final PK model were consistent with the simulated results from the Japanese phase II study. There was no clear relationship between individual estimated exposures and safety-related events, and the estimated exposure levels were consistent with the global phase III data. Therefore, it was concluded that the dose selected for the phase III study with Japanese NVAF patients by means of model simulation employing phase II study data had been appropriate from the PK-PD perspective.

Pulmonary deposition modeling with airborne fiber exposure data: a study of workers manufacturing refractory ceramic fibers.

PubMed

Lentz, Thomas J; Rice, Carol H; Succop, Paul A; Lockey, James E; Dement, John M; LeMasters, Grace K

2003-04-01

Increasing production of refractory ceramic fiber (RCF), a synthetic vitreous material with industrial applications (e.g., kiln insulation), has created interest in potential respiratory effects of exposure to airborne fibers during manufacturing. An ongoing study of RCF manufacturing workers in the United States has indicated an association between cumulative fiber exposure and pleural plaques. Fiber sizing data, obtained from electron microscopy analyses of 118 air samples collected in three independent studies over a 20-year period (1976-1995), were used with a computer deposition model to estimate pulmonary dose of fibers of specified dimensions for 652 former and current RCF production workers. Separate dose correction factors reflecting differences in fiber dimensions in six uniform job title groups were used with data on airborne fiber concentration and employment duration to calculate cumulative dose estimates for each worker. From review of the literature, critical dimensions (diameter <0.4 microm, length <10 microm) were defined for fibers that may translocate to the parietal pleura. Each of three continuous exposure/dose metrics analyzed in separate logistic regression models was significantly related to plaques, even after adjusting for possible past asbestos exposure: cumulative fiber exposure, chi(2) = 15.2 (p < 0.01); cumulative pulmonary dose (all fibers), chi(2) = 14.6 (p < 0.01); cumulative pulmonary dose (critical dimension fibers), chi(2) = 12.4 (p < 0.01). Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for levels of each metric. Increasing ORs were statistically significant for the two highest dose levels of critical dimension fibers (level three, OR = 11, 95%CI = [1.4, 98]; level four, OR = 25, 95%CI = [3.2, 190]). Similar associations existed for all metrics after adjustment for possible asbestos exposure. It was concluded that development of pleural plaques follows exposure- and dose-response patterns, and that airborne fibers in RCF manufacturing facilities include those with critical dimensions associated with pleural plaque formation. Analysis of additional air samples may improve estimates of the dose-response relationship.

On-line photolithography modeling using spectrophotometry and Prolith/2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engstrom, Herbert L.; Beacham, Jeanne E.

1994-05-01

Spectrophotometry has been applied to optimizing photolithography processes in semiconductor manufacturing. For many years thin film measurement systems have been used in manufacturing for controlling film deposition processes. The combination of film thickness mapping with photolithography modeling has expanded the applications of this technology. Experimental measurements of dose-to-clear, the minimum light exposure dose required to fully develop a photoresist, are described. It is shown how dose-to-clear and photoresist contrast may be determined rapidly and conveniently from measurements of a dose exposure matrix on a monitor wafer. Such experimental measurements may underestimate the dose-to- clear because of thickness variations of the photoresist and underlying layers on the product wafer. Online modeling of the photolithographic process together with film thickness maps of the entire wafer can overcome this problem. Such modeling also provides maps of dose-to- clear and resist linewidth that can be used to estimate and optimize yield.

Probabilistic dose-response modeling: case study using dichloromethane PBPK model results.

PubMed

Marino, Dale J; Starr, Thomas B

2007-12-01

A revised assessment of dichloromethane (DCM) has recently been reported that examines the influence of human genetic polymorphisms on cancer risks using deterministic PBPK and dose-response modeling in the mouse combined with probabilistic PBPK modeling in humans. This assessment utilized Bayesian techniques to optimize kinetic variables in mice and humans with mean values from posterior distributions used in the deterministic modeling in the mouse. To supplement this research, a case study was undertaken to examine the potential impact of probabilistic rather than deterministic PBPK and dose-response modeling in mice on subsequent unit risk factor (URF) determinations. Four separate PBPK cases were examined based on the exposure regimen of the NTP DCM bioassay. These were (a) Same Mouse (single draw of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups); (b) Correlated BW-Same Inputs (single draw of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups except for bodyweights (BWs), which were entered as correlated variables); (c) Correlated BW-Different Inputs (separate draws of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups except that BWs were entered as correlated variables); and (d) Different Mouse (separate draws of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups). Monte Carlo PBPK inputs reflect posterior distributions from Bayesian calibration in the mouse that had been previously reported. A minimum of 12,500 PBPK iterations were undertaken, in which dose metrics, i.e., mg DCM metabolized by the GST pathway/L tissue/day for lung and liver were determined. For dose-response modeling, these metrics were combined with NTP tumor incidence data that were randomly selected from binomial distributions. Resultant potency factors (0.1/ED(10)) were coupled with probabilistic PBPK modeling in humans that incorporated genetic polymorphisms to derive URFs. Results show that there was relatively little difference, i.e., <10% in central tendency and upper percentile URFs, regardless of the case evaluated. Independent draws of PBPK inputs resulted in the slightly higher URFs. Results were also comparable to corresponding values from the previously reported deterministic mouse PBPK and dose-response modeling approach that used LED(10)s to derive potency factors. This finding indicated that the adjustment from ED(10) to LED(10) in the deterministic approach for DCM compensated for variability resulting from probabilistic PBPK and dose-response modeling in the mouse. Finally, results show a similar degree of variability in DCM risk estimates from a number of different sources including the current effort even though these estimates were developed using very different techniques. Given the variety of different approaches involved, 95th percentile-to-mean risk estimate ratios of 2.1-4.1 represent reasonable bounds on variability estimates regarding probabilistic assessments of DCM.

A Monte Carlo study of the impact of the choice of rectum volume definition on estimates of equivalent uniform doses and the volume parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvinnsland, Yngve; Muren, Ludvig Paul; Dahl, Olav

2004-08-01

Calculations of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) values for the rectum are difficult because it is a hollow, non-rigid, organ. Finding the true cumulative dose distribution for a number of treatment fractions requires a CT scan before each treatment fraction. This is labour intensive, and several surrogate distributions have therefore been suggested, such as dose wall histograms, dose surface histograms and histograms for the solid rectum, with and without margins. In this study, a Monte Carlo method is used to investigate the relationships between the cumulative dose distributions based on all treatment fractions and the above-mentioned histograms that are based on one CT scan only, in terms of equivalent uniform dose. Furthermore, the effect of a specific choice of histogram on estimates of the volume parameter of the probit NTCP model was investigated. It was found that the solid rectum and the rectum wall histograms (without margins) gave equivalent uniform doses with an expected value close to the values calculated from the cumulative dose distributions in the rectum wall. With the number of patients available in this study the standard deviations of the estimates of the volume parameter were large, and it was not possible to decide which volume gave the best estimates of the volume parameter, but there were distinct differences in the mean values of the values obtained.

Dosimetric evaluation of nanotargeted (188)Re-liposome with the MIRDOSE3 and OLINDA/EXM programs.

PubMed

Chang, Chih-Hsien; Chang, Ya-Jen; Lee, Te-Wei; Ting, Gann; Chang, Kwo-Ping

2012-06-01

The OLINDA/EXM computer code was created as a replacement for the widely used MIRDOSE3 code for radiation dosimetry in nuclear medicine. A dosimetric analysis with these codes was performed to evaluate nanoliposomes as carriers of radionuclides ((188)Re-liposomes) in colon carcinoma-bearing mice. Pharmacokinetic data for (188)Re-N, N-bis (2-mercaptoethyl)-N',N'-diethylethylenediamine ((188)Re-BMEDA) and (188)Re-liposome were obtained for estimation of absorbed doses in normal organs. Radiation dose estimates for normal tissues were calculated using the MIRDOSE3 and OLINDA/EXM programs for a colon carcinoma solid tumor mouse model. Mean absorbed doses derived from(188)Re-BMEDA and (188)Re-liposome in normal tissues were generally similar as calculated by MIRDOSE3 and OLINDA/EXM programs. One notable exception to this was red marrow, wherein MIRDOSE3 resulted in higher absorbed doses than OLINDA/EXM (1.53- and 1.60-fold for (188)Re-BMEDA and (188)Re-liposome, respectively). MIRDOSE3 and OLINDA have very similar residence times and organ doses. Bone marrow doses were estimated by designating cortical bone rather than bone marrow as a source organ. The bone marrow doses calculated by MIRDOSE3 are higher than those by OLINDA. If the bone marrow is designated as a source organ, the doses estimated by MIRDOSE3 and OLINDA programs will be very similar.

Dose conversion factors for radon: recent developments.

PubMed

Marsh, James W; Harrison, John D; Laurier, Dominique; Blanchardon, Eric; Paquet, François; Tirmarche, Margot

2010-10-01

Epidemiological studies of the occupational exposure of miners and domestic exposures of the public have provided strong and complementary evidence of the risks of lung cancer following inhalation of radon progeny. Recent miner epidemiological studies, which include low levels of exposure, long duration of follow-up, and good quality of individual exposure data, suggest higher risks of lung cancer per unit exposure than assumed previously by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Although risks can be managed by controlling exposures, dose estimates are required for the control of occupational exposures and are also useful for comparing sources of public exposure. Currently, ICRP calculates doses from radon and its progeny using dose conversion factors from exposure (WLM) to dose (mSv) based on miner epidemiological studies, referred to as the epidemiological approach. Revision of these dose conversion factors using risk estimates based on the most recent epidemiological data gives values that are in good agreement with the results of calculations using ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models, the dosimetric approach. ICRP now proposes to treat radon progeny in the same way as other radionuclides and to publish dose coefficients calculated using models, for use within the ICRP system of protection.

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Technical Review of SRS Dose Reconstrruction Methods Used By CDC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpkins, Ali, A

2005-07-20

At the request of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), a subcontractor Advanced Technologies and Laboratories International, Inc.(ATL) issued a draft report estimating offsite dose as a result of Savannah River Site operations for the period 1954-1992 in support of Phase III of the SRS Dose Reconstruction Project. The doses reported by ATL differed than those previously estimated by Savannah River Site SRS dose modelers for a variety of reasons, but primarily because (1) ATL used different source terms, (2) ATL considered trespasser/poacher scenarios and (3) ATL did not consistently use site-specific parameters or correct usage parameters. Themore » receptors with the highest dose from atmospheric and liquid pathways were within about a factor of four greater than dose values previously reported by SRS. A complete set of technical comments have also been included.« less

ESTIMATING CONTAMINANT DOSE FOR INTERMITTENT DERMAL CONTACT: MODEL DEVELOPMENT, TESTING, AND APPLICATION

EPA Science Inventory

Assessments of aggregate exposure to pesticides and other surface contamination in residential environments are often driven by assumptions about dermal contacts. Accurately predicting cumulative doses from realistic skin contact scenarios requires characterization of exposure sc...

A method of estimating conceptus doses resulting from multidetector CT examinations during all stages of gestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damilakis, John; Tzedakis, Antonis; Perisinakis, Kostas

Purpose: Current methods for the estimation of conceptus dose from multidetector CT (MDCT) examinations performed on the mother provide dose data for typical protocols with a fixed scan length. However, modified low-dose imaging protocols are frequently used during pregnancy. The purpose of the current study was to develop a method for the estimation of conceptus dose from any MDCT examination of the trunk performed during all stages of gestation. Methods: The Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code was employed in this study to model the Siemens Sensation 16 and Sensation 64 MDCT scanners. Four mathematical phantoms were used, simulatingmore » women at 0, 3, 6, and 9 months of gestation. The contribution to the conceptus dose from single simulated scans was obtained at various positions across the phantoms. To investigate the effect of maternal body size and conceptus depth on conceptus dose, phantoms of different sizes were produced by adding layers of adipose tissue around the trunk of the mathematical phantoms. To verify MCNP results, conceptus dose measurements were carried out by means of three physical anthropomorphic phantoms, simulating pregnancy at 0, 3, and 6 months of gestation and thermoluminescence dosimetry (TLD) crystals. Results: The results consist of Monte Carlo-generated normalized conceptus dose coefficients for single scans across the four mathematical phantoms. These coefficients were defined as the conceptus dose contribution from a single scan divided by the CTDI free-in-air measured with identical scanning parameters. Data have been produced to take into account the effect of maternal body size and conceptus position variations on conceptus dose. Conceptus doses measured with TLD crystals showed a difference of up to 19% compared to those estimated by mathematical simulations. Conclusions: Estimation of conceptus doses from MDCT examinations of the trunk performed on pregnant patients during all stages of gestation can be made using the method developed in the current study.« less

Methods for estimation of radiation risk in epidemiological studies accounting for classical and Berkson errors in doses.

PubMed

Kukush, Alexander; Shklyar, Sergiy; Masiuk, Sergii; Likhtarov, Illya; Kovgan, Lina; Carroll, Raymond J; Bouville, Andre

2011-02-16

With a binary response Y, the dose-response model under consideration is logistic in flavor with pr(Y=1 | D) = R (1+R)(-1), R = λ(0) + EAR D, where λ(0) is the baseline incidence rate and EAR is the excess absolute risk per gray. The calculated thyroid dose of a person i is expressed as Dimes=fiQi(mes)/Mi(mes). Here, Qi(mes) is the measured content of radioiodine in the thyroid gland of person i at time t(mes), Mi(mes) is the estimate of the thyroid mass, and f(i) is the normalizing multiplier. The Q(i) and M(i) are measured with multiplicative errors Vi(Q) and ViM, so that Qi(mes)=Qi(tr)Vi(Q) (this is classical measurement error model) and Mi(tr)=Mi(mes)Vi(M) (this is Berkson measurement error model). Here, Qi(tr) is the true content of radioactivity in the thyroid gland, and Mi(tr) is the true value of the thyroid mass. The error in f(i) is much smaller than the errors in ( Qi(mes), Mi(mes)) and ignored in the analysis. By means of Parametric Full Maximum Likelihood and Regression Calibration (under the assumption that the data set of true doses has lognormal distribution), Nonparametric Full Maximum Likelihood, Nonparametric Regression Calibration, and by properly tuned SIMEX method we study the influence of measurement errors in thyroid dose on the estimates of λ(0) and EAR. The simulation study is presented based on a real sample from the epidemiological studies. The doses were reconstructed in the framework of the Ukrainian-American project on the investigation of Post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine, and the underlying subpolulation was artificially enlarged in order to increase the statistical power. The true risk parameters were given by the values to earlier epidemiological studies, and then the binary response was simulated according to the dose-response model.

Pharmacokinetic Studies in Neonates: The Utility of an Opportunistic Sampling Design.

PubMed

Leroux, Stéphanie; Turner, Mark A; Guellec, Chantal Barin-Le; Hill, Helen; van den Anker, Johannes N; Kearns, Gregory L; Jacqz-Aigrain, Evelyne; Zhao, Wei

2015-12-01

The use of an opportunistic (also called scavenged) sampling strategy in a prospective pharmacokinetic study combined with population pharmacokinetic modelling has been proposed as an alternative strategy to conventional methods for accomplishing pharmacokinetic studies in neonates. However, the reliability of this approach in this particular paediatric population has not been evaluated. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the performance of an opportunistic sampling strategy for a population pharmacokinetic estimation, as well as dose prediction, and compare this strategy with a predetermined pharmacokinetic sampling approach. Three population pharmacokinetic models were derived for ciprofloxacin from opportunistic blood samples (SC model), predetermined (i.e. scheduled) samples (TR model) and all samples (full model used to previously characterize ciprofloxacin pharmacokinetics), using NONMEM software. The predictive performance of developed models was evaluated in an independent group of patients. Pharmacokinetic data from 60 newborns were obtained with a total of 430 samples available for analysis; 265 collected at predetermined times and 165 that were scavenged from those obtained as part of clinical care. All datasets were fit using a two-compartment model with first-order elimination. The SC model could identify the most significant covariates and provided reasonable estimates of population pharmacokinetic parameters (clearance and steady-state volume of distribution) compared with the TR and full models. Their predictive performances were further confirmed in an external validation by Bayesian estimation, and showed similar results. Monte Carlo simulation based on area under the concentration-time curve from zero to 24 h (AUC24)/minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) using either the SC or the TR model gave similar dose prediction for ciprofloxacin. Blood samples scavenged in the course of caring for neonates can be used to estimate ciprofloxacin pharmacokinetic parameters and therapeutic dose requirements.

Modeling Effective Dosages in Hormetic Dose-Response Studies

PubMed Central

Belz, Regina G.; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2012-01-01

Background Two hormetic modifications of a monotonically decreasing log-logistic dose-response function are most often used to model stimulatory effects of low dosages of a toxicant in plant biology. As just one of these empirical models is yet properly parameterized to allow inference about quantities of interest, this study contributes the parameterized functions for the second hormetic model and compares the estimates of effective dosages between both models based on 23 hormetic data sets. Based on this, the impact on effective dosage estimations was evaluated, especially in case of a substantially inferior fit by one of the two models. Methodology/Principal Findings The data sets evaluated described the hormetic responses of four different test plant species exposed to 15 different chemical stressors in two different experimental dose-response test designs. Out of the 23 data sets, one could not be described by any of the two models, 14 could be better described by one of the two models, and eight could be equally described by both models. In cases of misspecification by any of the two models, the differences between effective dosages estimates (0–1768%) greatly exceeded the differences observed when both models provided a satisfactory fit (0–26%). This suggests that the conclusions drawn depending on the model used may diverge considerably when using an improper hormetic model especially regarding effective dosages quantifying hormesis. Conclusions/Significance The study showed that hormetic dose responses can take on many shapes and that this diversity can not be captured by a single model without risking considerable misinterpretation. However, the two empirical models considered in this paper together provide a powerful means to model, prove, and now also to quantify a wide range of hormetic responses by reparameterization. Despite this, they should not be applied uncritically, but after statistical and graphical assessment of their adequacy. PMID:22438929

Comparison of the Current Center of Site Annual Neshap Dose Modeling at the Savannah River Site with Other Assessment Methods.

PubMed

Minter, Kelsey M; Jannik, G Timothy; Stagich, Brooke H; Dixon, Kenneth L; Newton, Joseph R

2018-04-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the use of the model CAP88 to estimate the total effective dose (TED) to an offsite maximally exposed individual (MEI) for demonstrating compliance with 40 CFR 61, Subpart H: The National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) regulations. For NESHAP compliance at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the EPA, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control, and SRS approved a dose assessment method in 1991 that models all radiological emissions as if originating from a generalized center of site (COS) location at two allowable stack heights (0 m and 61 m). However, due to changes in SRS missions, radiological emissions are no longer evenly distributed about the COS. An area-specific simulation of the 2015 SRS radiological airborne emissions was conducted to compare to the current COS method. The results produced a slightly higher dose estimate (2.97 × 10 mSv vs. 2.22 × 10 mSv), marginally changed the overall MEI location, and noted that H-Area tritium emissions dominated the dose. Thus, an H-Area dose model was executed as a potential simplification of the area-specific simulation by adopting the COS methodology and modeling all site emissions from a single location in H-Area using six stack heights that reference stacks specific to the tritium production facilities within H-Area. This "H-Area Tritium Stacks" method produced a small increase in TED estimates (3.03 × 10 mSv vs. 2.97 × 10 mSv) when compared to the area-specific simulation. This suggests that the current COS method is still appropriate for demonstrating compliance with NESHAP regulations but that changing to the H-Area Tritium Stacks assessment method may now be a more appropriate representation of operations at SRS.

Perspectives of UV nowcasting to monitor personal pro-health outdoor activities.

PubMed

Krzyścin, Janusz W; Lesiak, Aleksandra; Narbutt, Joanna; Sobolewski, Piotr; Guzikowski, Jakub

2018-07-01

Nowcasting model for online monitoring of personal outdoor behaviour is proposed. It is envisaged that it will provide an effective e-tool used by smartphone users. The model could estimate maximum duration of safe (without erythema risk) outdoor activity. Moreover, there are options to estimate duration of sunbathing to get adequate amount of vitamin D 3 and doses necessary for the antipsoriatic heliotherapy. The application requires information of starting time of sunbathing and the user's phototype. At the beginning the user will be informed of the approximate duration of sunbathing required to get the minimum erythemal dose, adequate amount of vitamin D 3 , and the dose necessary for the antipsoriatic heliotherapy. After every 20-min the application will recalculate the remaining duration of sunbathing based on the UVI measured in the preceding 20 min. If the estimate of remaining duration is <20 min the user will be informed that the deadline of sunbathing is approaching. Finally, a warning signal will be sent to stop sunbathing if the measured dose reaches the required dose. The proposed model is verified using the data collected at two measuring sites for the warm period of 2017 (1st April-30th September) in large Polish cities (Warsaw and Lodz). First instrument represents the UVI monitoring station. The information concerning sunbathing duration, which is sent to a remote user, is evaluated on the basis of the UVI measurements collected by the second measuring unit in a distance of ~7 km and 10 km for Warsaw and Lodz, respectively. The statistical analysis of the differences between sunbathing duration by nowcasting model and observation shows that the model provides reliable doses received by the users during outdoor activities in proximity (~10 km) to the UVI source site. Standard 24 h UVI forecast based on prognostic values of total ozone and cloudiness appears to only be valid for sunny days. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers.

PubMed

Nunes, Julia K; Cárdenas, Vicky; Loucq, Christian; Maire, Nicolas; Smith, Thomas; Shaffer, Craig; Måseide, Kårstein; Brooks, Alan

2013-07-01

Efforts to develop malaria vaccines show promise. Mathematical model-based estimates of the potential demand, public health impact, and cost and financing requirements can be used to inform investment and adoption decisions by vaccine developers and policymakers on the use of malaria vaccines as complements to existing interventions. However, the complexity of such models may make their outputs inaccessible to non-modeling specialists. This paper describes a Malaria Vaccine Model (MVM) developed to address the specific needs of developers and policymakers, who need to access sophisticated modeling results and to test various scenarios in a user-friendly interface. The model's functionality is demonstrated through a hypothetical vaccine. The MVM has three modules: supply and demand forecast; public health impact; and implementation cost and financing requirements. These modules include pre-entered reference data and also allow for user-defined inputs. The model includes an integrated sensitivity analysis function. Model functionality was demonstrated by estimating the public health impact of a hypothetical pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine with 85% efficacy against uncomplicated disease and a vaccine efficacy decay rate of four years, based on internationally-established targets. Demand for this hypothetical vaccine was estimated based on historical vaccine implementation rates for routine infant immunization in 40 African countries over a 10-year period. Assumed purchase price was $5 per dose and injection equipment and delivery costs were $0.40 per dose. The model projects the number of doses needed, uncomplicated and severe cases averted, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and cost to avert each. In the demonstration scenario, based on a projected demand of 532 million doses, the MVM estimated that 150 million uncomplicated cases of malaria and 1.1 million deaths would be averted over 10 years. This is equivalent to 943 uncomplicated cases and 7 deaths averted per 1,000 vaccinees. In discounted 2011 US dollars, this represents $11 per uncomplicated case averted and $1,482 per death averted. If vaccine efficacy were reduced to 75%, the estimated uncomplicated cases and deaths averted over 10 years would decrease by 14% and 19%, respectively. The MVM can provide valuable information to assist decision-making by vaccine developers and policymakers, information which will be refined and strengthened as field studies progress allowing further validation of modeling assumptions.

SU-E-T-598: Parametric Equation for Quick and Reliable Estimate of Stray Neutron Doses in Proton Therapy and Application for Intracranial Tumor Treatments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonfrate, A; Farah, J; Sayah, R

2015-06-15

Purpose: Development of a parametric equation suitable for a daily use in routine clinic to provide estimates of stray neutron doses in proton therapy. Methods: Monte Carlo (MC) calculations using the UF-NCI 1-year-old phantom were exercised to determine the variation of stray neutron doses as a function of irradiation parameters while performing intracranial treatments. This was done by individually changing the proton beam energy, modulation width, collimator aperture and thickness, compensator thickness and the air gap size while their impact on neutron doses were put into a single equation. The variation of neutron doses with distance from the target volumemore » was also included in it. Then, a first step consisted in establishing the fitting coefficients by using 221 learning data which were neutron absorbed doses obtained with MC simulations while a second step consisted in validating the final equation. Results: The variation of stray neutron doses with irradiation parameters were fitted with linear, polynomial, etc. model while a power-law model was used to fit the variation of stray neutron doses with the distance from the target volume. The parametric equation fitted well MC simulations while establishing fitting coefficients as the discrepancies on the estimate of neutron absorbed doses were within 10%. The discrepancy can reach ∼25% for the bladder, the farthest organ from the target volume. Finally, the validation showed results in compliance with MC calculations since the discrepancies were also within 10% for head-and-neck and thoracic organs while they can reach ∼25%, again for pelvic organs. Conclusion: The parametric equation presents promising results and will be validated for other target sites as well as other facilities to go towards a universal method.« less

Accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations compared to in-vivo MDCT dosimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bostani, Maryam, E-mail: mbostani@mednet.ucla.edu; McMillan, Kyle; Cagnon, Chris H.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of a Monte Carlo simulation-based method for estimating radiation dose from multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) by comparing simulated doses in ten patients to in-vivo dose measurements. Methods: MD Anderson Cancer Center Institutional Review Board approved the acquisition of in-vivo rectal dose measurements in a pilot study of ten patients undergoing virtual colonoscopy. The dose measurements were obtained by affixing TLD capsules to the inner lumen of rectal catheters. Voxelized patient models were generated from the MDCT images of the ten patients, and the dose to the TLD for allmore » exposures was estimated using Monte Carlo based simulations. The Monte Carlo simulation results were compared to the in-vivo dose measurements to determine accuracy. Results: The calculated mean percent difference between TLD measurements and Monte Carlo simulations was −4.9% with standard deviation of 8.7% and a range of −22.7% to 5.7%. Conclusions: The results of this study demonstrate very good agreement between simulated and measured doses in-vivo. Taken together with previous validation efforts, this work demonstrates that the Monte Carlo simulation methods can provide accurate estimates of radiation dose in patients undergoing CT examinations.« less

Dose coefficients in pediatric and adult abdominopelvic CT based on 100 patient models.

PubMed

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W Paul; Frush, Donald P; Paulson, Erik K; Samei, Ehsan

2013-12-21

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of estimating patient dose from a CT exam using CTDI(vol)-normalized-organ dose (denoted as h), DLP-normalized-effective dose (denoted as k), and DLP-normalized-risk index (denoted as q). However, previous studies were limited to a small number of phantom models. The purpose of this work was to provide dose coefficients (h, k, and q) across a large number of computational models covering a broad range of patient anatomy, age, size percentile, and gender. The study consisted of 100 patient computer models (age range, 0 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 2-180 kg) including 42 pediatric models (age range, 0 to 16 y.o.; weight range, 2-80 kg) and 58 adult models (age range, 18 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 57-180 kg). Multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare) were included. A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which h, k, and q were derived. The relationships between h, k, and q and patient characteristics (size, age, and gender) were ascertained. The differences in conversion coefficients across the scanners were further characterized. CTDI(vol)-normalized-organ dose (h) showed an exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For organs within the image coverage, the average differences of h across scanners were less than 15%. That value increased to 29% for organs on the periphery or outside the image coverage, and to 8% for distributed organs, respectively. The DLP-normalized-effective dose (k) decreased exponentially with increasing patient size. For a given gender, the DLP-normalized-risk index (q) showed an exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The average differences in k and q across scanners were 8% and 10%, respectively. This study demonstrated that the knowledge of patient information and CTDIvol/DLP values may be used to estimate organ dose, effective dose, and risk index in abdominopelvic CT based on the coefficients derived from a large population of pediatric and adult patients.

Dose coefficients in pediatric and adult abdominopelvic CT based on 100 patient models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Paulson, Erik K.; Samei, Ehsan

2013-12-01

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of estimating patient dose from a CT exam using CTDIvol-normalized-organ dose (denoted as h), DLP-normalized-effective dose (denoted as k), and DLP-normalized-risk index (denoted as q). However, previous studies were limited to a small number of phantom models. The purpose of this work was to provide dose coefficients (h, k, and q) across a large number of computational models covering a broad range of patient anatomy, age, size percentile, and gender. The study consisted of 100 patient computer models (age range, 0 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 2-180 kg) including 42 pediatric models (age range, 0 to 16 y.o.; weight range, 2-80 kg) and 58 adult models (age range, 18 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 57-180 kg). Multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare) were included. A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which h, k, and q were derived. The relationships between h, k, and q and patient characteristics (size, age, and gender) were ascertained. The differences in conversion coefficients across the scanners were further characterized. CTDIvol-normalized-organ dose (h) showed an exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For organs within the image coverage, the average differences of h across scanners were less than 15%. That value increased to 29% for organs on the periphery or outside the image coverage, and to 8% for distributed organs, respectively. The DLP-normalized-effective dose (k) decreased exponentially with increasing patient size. For a given gender, the DLP-normalized-risk index (q) showed an exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The average differences in k and q across scanners were 8% and 10%, respectively. This study demonstrated that the knowledge of patient information and CTDIvol/DLP values may be used to estimate organ dose, effective dose, and risk index in abdominopelvic CT based on the coefficients derived from a large population of pediatric and adult patients.

Modelling second malignancy risks from low dose rate and high dose rate brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer.

PubMed

Murray, Louise; Mason, Joshua; Henry, Ann M; Hoskin, Peter; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Venselaar, Jack; Bownes, Peter

2016-08-01

To estimate the risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancers following low dose rate (LDR) and high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer and compare to external beam radiotherapy techniques. LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy plans were generated for three prostate CT datasets. Second cancer risks were assessed using Schneider's concept of organ equivalent dose. LDR risks were assessed according to a mechanistic model and a bell-shaped model. HDR risks were assessed according to a bell-shaped model. Relative risks and excess absolute risks were estimated and compared to external beam techniques. Excess absolute risks of second rectal or bladder cancer were low for both LDR (irrespective of the model used for calculation) and HDR techniques. Average excess absolute risks of rectal cancer for LDR brachytherapy according to the mechanistic model were 0.71 per 10,000 person-years (PY) and 0.84 per 10,000 PY respectively, and according to the bell-shaped model, were 0.47 and 0.78 per 10,000 PY respectively. For HDR, the average excess absolute risks for second rectal and bladder cancers were 0.74 and 1.62 per 10,000 PY respectively. The absolute differences between techniques were very low and clinically irrelevant. Compared to external beam prostate radiotherapy techniques, LDR and HDR brachytherapy resulted in the lowest risks of second rectal and bladder cancer. This study shows both LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy result in low estimated risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancer. LDR resulted in lower bladder cancer risks than HDR, and lower or similar risks of rectal cancer. In absolute terms these differences between techniques were very small. Compared to external beam techniques, second rectal and bladder cancer risks were lowest for brachytherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient-specific FDG dosimetry for adult males, adult females, and very low birth weight infants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niven, Erin

Fluorodeoxyglucose is the most commonly used radiopharmaceutical in Positron Emission Tomography, with applications in neurology, cardiology, and oncology. Despite its routine use worldwide, the radiation absorbed dose estimates from FDG have been based primarily on data obtained from two dogs studied in 1977 and 11 adults (most likely males) studied in 1982. In addition, the dose estimates calculated for FDG have been centered on the adult male, with little or no mention of variations in the dose estimates due to sex, age, height, weight, nationality, diet, or pathological condition. Through an extensive investigation into the Medical Internal Radiation Dose schema for calculating absorbed doses, I have developed a simple patient-specific equation; this equation incorporates the parameters necessary for alterations to the mathematical values of the human model to produce an estimate more representative of the individual under consideration. I have used this method to determine the range of absorbed doses to FDG from the collection of a large quantity of biological data obtained in adult males, adult females, and very low birth weight infants. Therefore, a more accurate quantification of the dose to humans from FDG has been completed. My results show that per unit administered activity, the absorbed dose from FDG is higher for infants compared to adults, and the dose for adult women is higher than for adult men. Given an injected activity of approximately 3.7 MBq kg-1, the doses for adult men, adult women, and full-term newborns would be on the order of 5.5, 7.1, and 2.8 mSv, respectively. These absorbed doses are comparable to the doses received from other nuclear medicine procedures.

Oral and intravenous l-[1-13 C]phenylalanine delivery measure similar rates of elimination when gastric emptying and splanchnic extraction are accounted for in adult mixed hounds.

PubMed

Gooding, M A; Cant, J P; Pencharz, P B; Davenport, G M; Atkinson, J L; Shoveller, A K

2013-02-01

There are few reported estimates of amino acid (AA) kinetics in adult mammals and none exist in adult dogs. The study objectives were to evaluate the use of oral isotope delivery in contrast to the more commonly used intravenous (IV) delivery to estimate AA kinetics in adult dogs and to estimate splanchnic extraction and gastric emptying using a commonly accepted mathematical model. Dogs received 25 × 1/2-hourly meals (13 g/kg BW/day) and either an oral or IV bolus of l-[1-(13) C]Phe (12 mg/kg BW). Blood samples were taken immediately before each feeding. Concentrations of plasma Phe were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. There were no differences in baseline plasma Phe concentrations (34 μm ± 0.61), Phe distribution volume, Phe pool size and rate constants between dogs when the tracer was administered IV or orally (p > 0.25). Decay curve for plasma l-[1-(13) C]Phe differed between IV and oral dosing protocols with IV dosing fit best using a two-compartment model. Phe disappeared from plasma at a mean rate of 2.8%/min. Estimates of gastric emptying and splanchnic extraction did not differ based on oral or IV tracer dosing when the decay curves were fit with the two-compartment model (p > 0.40). The half-life for gastric emptying was 18 min, and first-pass Phe extraction by the splanchnic bed was 24% of the dietary Phe. These results suggest that oral isotope dosing can be used as an alternative to IV isotope dosing in studies that utilize a primed, constant dosing approach to measure protein and amino acid kinetics. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Budge, T. J.

The groundwater facet of the revised CA is responsible for generating predicted contaminant concentration values over the entire analysis spatial and temporal domain. These estimates will be used as part of the groundwater pathway dose calculation facet to estimate dose for exposure scenarios. Based on the analysis of existing models and available information, the P2R Model was selected as the numerical simulator to provide these estimates over the 10,000-year temporal domain of the CA. The P2R Model will use inputs from initial plume distributions, updated for a start date of 1/1/2017, and inputs from the vadose zone facet, created bymore » a tool under development as part of the ICF, to produce estimates of hydraulic head, transmissivity, and contaminant concentration over time. A recommendation of acquiring 12 computer processors and 2 TB of hard drive space is made to ensure that the work can be completed within the anticipated schedule of the revised CA.« less

MO-F-CAMPUS-I-02: Accuracy in Converting the Average Breast Dose Into the Mean Glandular Dose (MGD) Using the F-Factor in Cone Beam Breast CT- a Monte Carlo Study Using Homogeneous and Quasi-Homogeneous Phantoms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lai, C; Zhong, Y; Wang, T

2015-06-15

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy in estimating the mean glandular dose (MGD) for homogeneous breast phantoms by converting from the average breast dose using the F-factor in cone beam breast CT. Methods: EGSnrc-based Monte Carlo codes were used to estimate the MGDs. 13-cm in diameter, 10-cm high hemi-ellipsoids were used to simulate pendant-geometry breasts. Two different types of hemi-ellipsoidal models were employed: voxels in quasi-homogeneous phantoms were designed as either adipose or glandular tissue while voxels in homogeneous phantoms were designed as the mixture of adipose and glandular tissues. Breast compositions of 25% and 50% volume glandular fractions (VGFs), definedmore » as the ratio of glandular tissue voxels to entire breast voxels in the quasi-homogeneous phantoms, were studied. These VGFs were converted into glandular fractions by weight and used to construct the corresponding homogeneous phantoms. 80 kVp x-rays with a mean energy of 47 keV was used in the simulation. A total of 109 photons were used to image the phantoms and the energies deposited in the phantom voxels were tallied. Breast doses in homogeneous phantoms were averaged over all voxels and then used to calculate the MGDs using the F-factors evaluated at the mean energy of the x-rays. The MGDs for quasi-homogeneous phantoms were computed directly by averaging the doses over all glandular tissue voxels. The MGDs estimated for the two types of phantoms were normalized to the free-in-air dose at the iso-center and compared. Results: The normalized MGDs were 0.756 and 0.732 mGy/mGy for the 25% and 50% VGF homogeneous breasts and 0.761 and 0.733 mGy/mGy for the corresponding quasi-homogeneous breasts, respectively. The MGDs estimated for the two types of phantoms were similar within 1% in this study. Conclusion: MGDs for homogeneous breast models may be adequately estimated by converting from the average breast dose using the F-factor.« less

A simplified technique for delivering total body irradiation (TBI) with improved dose homogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yao Rui; Bernard, Damian; Turian, Julius

2012-04-15

Purpose: Total body irradiation (TBI) with megavoltage photon beams has been accepted as an important component of management for a number of hematologic malignancies, generally as part of bone marrow conditioning regimens. The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss the authors' TBI technique, which both simplifies the treatment process and improves the treatment quality. Methods: An AP/PA TBI treatment technique to produce uniform dose distributions using sequential collimator reductions during each fraction was implemented, and a sample calculation worksheet is presented. Using this methodology, the dosimetric characteristics of both 6 and 18 MV photon beams, including lungmore » dose under cerrobend blocks was investigated. A method of estimating midplane lung doses based on measured entrance and exit doses was proposed, and the estimated results were compared with measurements. Results: Whole body midplane dose uniformity of {+-}10% was achieved with no more than two collimator-based beam modulations. The proposed model predicted midplane lung doses 5% to 10% higher than the measured doses for 6 and 18 MV beams. The estimated total midplane doses were within {+-}5% of the prescribed midplane dose on average except for the lungs where the doses were 6% to 10% lower than the prescribed dose on average. Conclusions: The proposed TBI technique can achieve dose uniformity within {+-}10%. This technique is easy to implement and does not require complicated dosimetry and/or compensators.« less

Improved radial dose function estimation using current version MCNP Monte-Carlo simulation: Model 6711 and ISC3500 125I brachytherapy sources.

PubMed

Duggan, Dennis M

2004-12-01

Improved cross-sections in a new version of the Monte-Carlo N-particle (MCNP) code may eliminate discrepancies between radial dose functions (as defined by American Association of Physicists in Medicine Task Group 43) derived from Monte-Carlo simulations of low-energy photon-emitting brachytherapy sources and those from measurements on the same sources with thermoluminescent dosimeters. This is demonstrated for two 125I brachytherapy seed models, the Implant Sciences Model ISC3500 (I-Plant) and the Amersham Health Model 6711, by simulating their radial dose functions with two versions of MCNP, 4c2 and 5.

Population pharmacokinetics and exposure-uric acid analyses after single and multiple doses of ABT-639, a calcium channel blocker, in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

An, Guohua; Liu, Wei; Duan, W Rachel; Nothaft, Wolfram; Awni, Walid; Dutta, Sandeep

2015-03-01

ABT-639 is a selective T-type calcium channel blocker with efficacy in a wide range of preclinical models of nociceptive and neuropathic pain. In the current first-in-human (FIH) study, the pharmacokinetics, tolerability, and safety of ABT-639 after single- (up to 170 mg) and multiple doses (up to 160 mg BID) were evaluated in healthy volunteers in a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled manner. ABT-639 demonstrated acceptable safety and pharmacokinetic profiles in human. Results from assessment of the routine laboratory variables showed an unexpected statistically significant and clinically relevant decrease in blood uric acid with the increase in ABT-639 dose, which is possibly due to inhibition in URAT1 transporter. Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models were constructed to characterize the relationship between ABT-639 exposure and uric acid response. The final model was a mechanism-based indirect response pharmacodynamic model with the stimulation of uric acid elimination by ABT-639. The model estimated K in values in males and females were 10.2 and 7.13 μmol/h, respectively. The model estimated K out was 0.033 1/h. ABT-639 concentration that can produce 50% stimulation in uric acid elimination was estimated to be 8,070 ng/mL. Based on the final model, further simulations were conducted to predict the effect of ABT-639 on uric acid in gout patients. The simulation results indicated that, if the urate-lowering response to ABT-639 in gout patients is similar to that in healthy subjects, ABT-639 BID doses of 140 mg or higher would be expected to provide clinically meaningful lowering of blood uric acid levels below the 380 μmol/L solubility limit of monosodium urate.

Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Efforts to develop malaria vaccines show promise. Mathematical model-based estimates of the potential demand, public health impact, and cost and financing requirements can be used to inform investment and adoption decisions by vaccine developers and policymakers on the use of malaria vaccines as complements to existing interventions. However, the complexity of such models may make their outputs inaccessible to non-modeling specialists. This paper describes a Malaria Vaccine Model (MVM) developed to address the specific needs of developers and policymakers, who need to access sophisticated modeling results and to test various scenarios in a user-friendly interface. The model’s functionality is demonstrated through a hypothetical vaccine. Methods The MVM has three modules: supply and demand forecast; public health impact; and implementation cost and financing requirements. These modules include pre-entered reference data and also allow for user-defined inputs. The model includes an integrated sensitivity analysis function. Model functionality was demonstrated by estimating the public health impact of a hypothetical pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine with 85% efficacy against uncomplicated disease and a vaccine efficacy decay rate of four years, based on internationally-established targets. Demand for this hypothetical vaccine was estimated based on historical vaccine implementation rates for routine infant immunization in 40 African countries over a 10-year period. Assumed purchase price was $5 per dose and injection equipment and delivery costs were $0.40 per dose. Results The model projects the number of doses needed, uncomplicated and severe cases averted, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and cost to avert each. In the demonstration scenario, based on a projected demand of 532 million doses, the MVM estimated that 150 million uncomplicated cases of malaria and 1.1 million deaths would be averted over 10 years. This is equivalent to 943 uncomplicated cases and 7 deaths averted per 1,000 vaccinees. In discounted 2011 US dollars, this represents $11 per uncomplicated case averted and $1,482 per death averted. If vaccine efficacy were reduced to 75%, the estimated uncomplicated cases and deaths averted over 10 years would decrease by 14% and 19%, respectively. Conclusions The MVM can provide valuable information to assist decision-making by vaccine developers and policymakers, information which will be refined and strengthened as field studies progress allowing further validation of modeling assumptions. PMID:23815273

BMDExpress Data Viewer: A Visualization Tool to Analyze BMDExpress Datasets(SoTC)

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Benchmark Dose (BMD) modelling is a mathematical approach used to determine where a dose-response change begins to take place relative to controls following chemical exposure. BMDs are being increasingly applied in regulatory toxicology to estimate acceptable exposure...

BMDExpress Data Viewer: A Visualization Tool to Analyze BMDExpress Datasets (STC symposium)

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Benchmark Dose (BMD) modelling is a mathematical approach used to determine where a dose-response change begins to take place relative to controls following chemical exposure. BMDs are being increasingly applied in regulatory toxicology to estimate acceptable exposure...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hall, Matthew D.; Schultheiss, Timothy E., E-mail: schultheiss@coh.org; Smith, David D.

Purpose/Objective(s): To perform a meta-regression on published data and to model the 5-year probability of cataract development after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) with and without total body irradiation (TBI). Methods and Materials: Eligible studies reporting cataract incidence after HSCT with TBI were identified by a PubMed search. Seventeen publications provided complete information on radiation dose schedule, fractionation, dose rate, and actuarial cataract incidence. Chemotherapy-only regimens were included as zero radiation dose regimens. Multivariate meta-regression with a weighted generalized linear model was used to model the 5-year cataract incidence and contributory factors. Results: Data from 1386 patients in 21 seriesmore » were included for analysis. TBI was administered to a total dose of 0 to 15.75 Gy with single or fractionated schedules with a dose rate of 0.04 to 0.16 Gy/min. Factors significantly associated with 5-year cataract incidence were dose, dose times dose per fraction (D•dpf), pediatric versus adult status, and the absence of an ophthalmologist as an author. Dose rate, graft versus host disease, steroid use, hyperfractionation, and number of fractions were not significant. Five-fold internal cross-validation showed a model validity of 83% ± 8%. Regression diagnostics showed no evidence of lack-of-fit and no patterns in the studentized residuals. The α/β ratio from the linear quadratic model, estimated as the ratio of the coefficients for dose and D•dpf, was 0.76 Gy (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.05-1.55). The odds ratio for pediatric patients was 2.8 (95% CI, 1.7-4.6) relative to adults. Conclusions: Dose, D•dpf, pediatric status, and regimented follow-up care by an ophthalmologist were predictive of 5-year cataract incidence after HSCT. The low α/β ratio indicates the importance of fractionation in reducing cataracts. Dose rate effects have been observed in single institution studies but not in the combined data analyzed here. Although data were limited to articles with 5-year actuarial estimates, the development of radiation-induced cataracts extends beyond this time.« less

Multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models

DOE PAGES

Tekwe, Carmen D.; Carter, Randy L.; Cullings, Harry M.; ...

2014-06-25

Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) models are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times, however, when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model; (ii) to develop likelihood-based estimation methodsmore » for the MIMIC ME model; and (iii) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. Finally, as a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure.« less

Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes Measurement Error Models

PubMed Central

Tekwe, Carmen D.; Carter, Randy L.; Cullings, Harry M.; Carroll, Raymond J.

2014-01-01

Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes Models (MIMIC) are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times however when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model, (2) to develop likelihood based estimation methods for the MIMIC ME model, (3) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. As a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure. PMID:24962535

Multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tekwe, Carmen D.; Carter, Randy L.; Cullings, Harry M.

Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) models are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times, however, when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model; (ii) to develop likelihood-based estimation methodsmore » for the MIMIC ME model; and (iii) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. Finally, as a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure.« less

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bender, Edward T.

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when comparedmore » the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.« less

Effect of respiratory motion on internal radiation dosimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Tianwu; Zaidi, Habib, E-mail: habib.zaidi@hcuge.ch; Geneva Neuroscience Center, Geneva University, Geneva CH-1205

Purpose: Estimation of the radiation dose to internal organs is essential for the assessment of radiation risks and benefits to patients undergoing diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine procedures including PET. Respiratory motion induces notable internal organ displacement, which influences the absorbed dose for external exposure to radiation. However, to their knowledge, the effect of respiratory motion on internal radiation dosimetry has never been reported before. Methods: Thirteen computational models representing the adult male at different respiratory phases corresponding to the normal respiratory cycle were generated from the 4D dynamic XCAT phantom. Monte Carlo calculations were performed using the MCNP transportmore » code to estimate the specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) of monoenergetic photons/electrons, the S-values of common positron-emitting radionuclides (C-11, N-13, O-15, F-18, Cu-64, Ga-68, Rb-82, Y-86, and I-124), and the absorbed dose of {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose ({sup 18}F-FDG) in 28 target regions for both the static (average of dynamic frames) and dynamic phantoms. Results: The self-absorbed dose for most organs/tissues is only slightly influenced by respiratory motion. However, for the lung, the self-absorbed SAF is about 11.5% higher at the peak exhale phase than the peak inhale phase for photon energies above 50 keV. The cross-absorbed dose is obviously affected by respiratory motion for many combinations of source-target pairs. The cross-absorbed S-values for the heart contents irradiating the lung are about 7.5% higher in the peak exhale phase than the peak inhale phase for different positron-emitting radionuclides. For {sup 18}F-FDG, organ absorbed doses are less influenced by respiratory motion. Conclusions: Respiration-induced volume variations of the lungs and the repositioning of internal organs affect the self-absorbed dose of the lungs and cross-absorbed dose between organs in internal radiation dosimetry. The dynamic anatomical model provides more accurate internal radiation dosimetry estimates for the lungs and abdominal organs based on realistic modeling of respiratory motion. This work also contributes to a better understanding of model-induced uncertainties in internal radiation dosimetry.« less

Critical Combinations of Radiation Dose and Volume Predict Intelligence Quotient and Academic Achievement Scores After Craniospinal Irradiation in Children With Medulloblastoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merchant, Thomas E., E-mail: thomas.merchant@stjude.org; Schreiber, Jane E.; Wu, Shengjie

Purpose: To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Methods and Materials: Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm{sup 2}). The primary sitemore » was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. Results: A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. Conclusions: The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help estimate the value of newer methods of irradiation.« less

Deposition and dose from the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, K. R.

1982-01-01

The downwind deposition and radiation doses was calculated for the tropospheric part of the ash cloud from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, by using a large cloud diffusion model. The naturally occurring radionnuclides of radium and thorium, whose radon daughters normally seep very slowly from the rocks and soil, were violently released to the atmosphere. The largest dose to an individual from these nuclides is small, but the population dose to those affected by the radioactivity in the ash is about 100 person rem. This population dose from Mount St. Helens is much greater than the annual person rem routinely released by a typical large nuclear power plant. It is estimated that subsequent eruptions of Mount St. Helens have doubled or tripled the person rem calculated from the initial large eruption. The long range global ash deposition of the May 18 eruption is estimated through 1984, by use of a global deposition model. The maximum deposition is nearly 1000 kg square km and occurs in the spring of 1981 over middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Historical Doses from Tritiated Water and Tritiated Hydrogen Gas Released to the Atmosphere from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Part 5. Accidental Releases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, S

2007-08-15

Over the course of fifty-three years, LLNL had six acute releases of tritiated hydrogen gas (HT) and one acute release of tritiated water vapor (HTO) that were too large relative to the annual releases to be included as part of the annual releases from normal operations detailed in Parts 3 and 4 of the Tritium Dose Reconstruction (TDR). Sandia National Laboratories/California (SNL/CA) had one such release of HT and one of HTO. Doses to the maximally exposed individual (MEI) for these accidents have been modeled using an equation derived from the time-dependent tritium model, UFOTRI, and parameter values based onmore » expert judgment. All of these acute releases are described in this report. Doses that could not have been exceeded from the large HT releases of 1965 and 1970 were calculated to be 43 {micro}Sv (4.3 mrem) and 120 {micro}Sv (12 mrem) to an adult, respectively. Two published sets of dose predictions for the accidental HT release in 1970 are compared with the dose predictions of this TDR. The highest predicted dose was for an acute release of HTO in 1954. For this release, the dose that could not have been exceeded was estimated to have been 2 mSv (200 mrem), although, because of the high uncertainty about the predictions, the likely dose may have been as low as 360 {micro}Sv (36 mrem) or less. The estimated maximum exposures from the accidental releases were such that no adverse health effects would be expected. Appendix A lists all accidents and large routine puff releases that have occurred at LLNL and SNL/CA between 1953 and 2005. Appendix B describes the processes unique to tritium that must be modeled after an acute release, some of the time-dependent tritium models being used today, and the results of tests of these models.« less

A Bayesian Model and Stochastic Exposure (Dose) Estimation for Relative Exposure Risk Comparison Involving Asbestos-Containing Dropped Ceiling Panel Installation and Maintenance Tasks.

PubMed

Boelter, Fred W; Xia, Yulin; Persky, Jacob D

2017-09-01

Assessing exposures to hazards in order to characterize risk is at the core of occupational hygiene. Our study examined dropped ceiling systems commonly used in schools and commercial buildings and lay-in ceiling panels that may have contained asbestos prior to the mid to late 1970s. However, most ceiling panels and tiles do not contain asbestos. Since asbestos risk relates to dose, we estimated the distribution of eight-hour TWA concentrations and one-year exposures (a one-year dose equivalent) to asbestos fibers (asbestos f/cc-years) for five groups of workers who may encounter dropped ceilings: specialists, generalists, maintenance workers, nonprofessional do-it-yourself (DIY) persons, and other tradespersons who are bystanders to ceiling work. Concentration data (asbestos f/cc) were obtained through two exposure assessment studies in the field and one chamber study. Bayesian and stochastic models were applied to estimate distributions of eight-hour TWAs and annual exposures (dose). The eight-hour TWAs for all work categories were below current and historic occupational exposure limits (OELs). Exposures to asbestos fibers from dropped ceiling work would be categorized as "highly controlled" for maintenance workers and "well controlled" for remaining work categories, according to the American Industrial Hygiene Association exposure control rating system. Annual exposures (dose) were found to be greatest for specialists, followed by maintenance workers, generalists, bystanders, and DIY. On a comparative basis, modeled dose and thus risk from dropped ceilings for all work categories were orders of magnitude lower than published exposures for other sources of banned friable asbestos-containing building material commonly encountered in construction trades. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimated ultraviolet radiation doses in wetlands in six national parks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diamond, S.A.; Trenham, P.C.; Adams, Michael J.; Hossack, B.R.; Knapp, R.A.; Stark, L.; Bradford, D.; Corn, P.S.; Czarnowski, K.; Brooks, P.D.; Fagre, D.B.; Breen, B.; Dentenbeck, N.E.; Tonnessen, K.

2005-01-01

Ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B, 280–320-nm wavelengths) doses were estimated for 1024 wetlands in six national parks: Acadia (Acadia), Glacier (Glacier), Great Smoky Mountains (Smoky), Olympic (Olympic), Rocky Mountain (Rocky), and Sequoia/Kings Canyon (Sequoia). Estimates were made using ground-based UV-B data (Brewer spectrophotometers), solar radiation models, GIS tools, field characterization of vegetative features, and quantification of DOC concentration and spectral absorbance. UV-B dose estimates were made for the summer solstice, at a depth of 1 cm in each wetland. The mean dose across all wetlands and parks was 19.3 W-h m−2 (range of 3.4–32.1 W-h m−2). The mean dose was lowest in Acadia (13.7 W-h m−2) and highest in Rocky (24.4 W-h m−2). Doses were significantly different among all parks. These wetland doses correspond to UV-B flux of 125.0 μW cm−2 (range 21.4–194.7 μW cm−2) based on a day length, averaged among all parks, of 15.5 h. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), a key determinant of water-column UV-B flux, ranged from 0.6 (analytical detection limit) to 36.7 mg C L−1 over all wetlands and parks, and reduced potential maximal UV-B doses at 1-cm depth by 1%–87 %. DOC concentration, as well as its effect on dose, was lowest in Sequoia and highest in Acadia (DOC was equivalent in Acadia, Glacier, and Rocky). Landscape reduction of potential maximal UV-B doses ranged from zero to 77% and was lowest in Sequoia. These regional differences in UV-B wetland dose illustrate the importance of considering all aspects of exposure in evaluating the potential impact of UV-B on aquatic organisms.

Effect of Intensity-Modulated Pelvic Radiotherapy on Second Cancer Risk in the Postoperative Treatment of Endometrial and Cervical Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zwahlen, Daniel R.; Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich; Ruben, Jeremy D.

2009-06-01

Purpose: To estimate and compare intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) in terms of second cancer risk (SCR) for postoperative treatment of endometrial and cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: To estimate SCR, the organ equivalent dose concept with a linear-exponential, a plateau, and a linear dose-response model was applied to dose distributions, calculated in a planning computed tomography scan of a 68-year-old woman. Three plans were computed: four-field 18-MV 3DCRT and nine-field IMRT with 6- and 18-MV photons. SCR was estimated as a function of target dose (50.4 Gy/28 fractions) in organs of interest according to the Internationalmore » Commission on Radiological Protection Results: Cumulative SCR relative to 3DCRT was +6% (3% for a plateau model, -4% for a linear model) for 6-MV IMRT and +26% (25%, 4%) for the 18-MV IMRT plan. For an organ within the primary beam, SCR was +12% (0%, -12%) for 6-MV and +5% (-2%, -7%) for 18-MV IMRT. 18-MV IMRT increased SCR 6-7 times for organs away from the primary beam relative to 3DCRT and 6-MV IMRT. Skin SCR increased by 22-37% for 6-MV and 50-69% for 18-MV IMRT inasmuch as a larger volume of skin was exposed. Conclusion: Cancer risk after IMRT for cervical and endometrial cancer is dependent on treatment energy. 6-MV pelvic IMRT represents a safe alternative with respect to SCR relative to 3DCRT, independently of the dose-response model. 18-MV IMRT produces second neutrons that modestly increase the SCR.« less

Patient-specific dose calculations for pediatric CT of the chest, abdomen and pelvis

PubMed Central

Fraser, Nicholas D.; Carver, Diana E.; Pickens, David R.; Price, Ronald R.; Hernanz-Schulman, Marta; Stabin, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Background Organ dose is essential for accurate estimates of patient dose from CT. Objective To determine organ doses from a broad range of pediatric patients undergoing diagnostic chest–abdomen–pelvis CT and investigate how these relate to patient size. Materials and methods We used a previously validated Monte Carlo simulation model of a Philips Brilliance 64 multi-detector CT scanner (Philips Healthcare, Best, The Netherlands) to calculate organ doses for 40 pediatric patients (M:F=21:19; range 0.6–17 years). Organ volumes and positions were determined from the images using standard segmentation techniques. Non-linear regression was performed to determine the relationship between volume CT dose index (CTDIvol)-normalized organ doses and abdominopelvic diameter. We then compared results with values obtained from independent studies. Results We found that CTDIvol-normalized organ dose correlated strongly with exponentially decreasing abdominopelvic diameter (R2>0.8 for most organs). A similar relationship was determined for effective dose when normalized by dose-length product (R2=0.95). Our results agreed with previous studies within 12% using similar scan parameters (i.e. bowtie filter size, beam collimation); however results varied up to 25% when compared to studies using different bowtie filters. Conclusion Our study determined that organ doses can be estimated from measurements of patient size, namely body diameter, and CTDIvol prior to CT examination. This information provides an improved method for patient dose estimation. PMID:26142256

Semimechanistic Bone Marrow Exhaustion Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Model for Chemotherapy-Induced Cumulative Neutropenia.

PubMed

Henrich, Andrea; Joerger, Markus; Kraff, Stefanie; Jaehde, Ulrich; Huisinga, Wilhelm; Kloft, Charlotte; Parra-Guillen, Zinnia Patricia

2017-08-01

Paclitaxel is a commonly used cytotoxic anticancer drug with potentially life-threatening toxicity at therapeutic doses and high interindividual pharmacokinetic variability. Thus, drug and effect monitoring is indicated to control dose-limiting neutropenia. Joerger et al. (2016) developed a dose individualization algorithm based on a pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) model describing paclitaxel and neutrophil concentrations. Furthermore, the algorithm was prospectively compared in a clinical trial against standard dosing (Central European Society for Anticancer Drug Research Study of Paclitaxel Therapeutic Drug Monitoring; 365 patients, 720 cycles) but did not substantially improve neutropenia. This might be caused by misspecifications in the PK/PD model underlying the algorithm, especially without consideration of the observed cumulative pattern of neutropenia or the platinum-based combination therapy, both impacting neutropenia. This work aimed to externally evaluate the original PK/PD model for potential misspecifications and to refine the PK/PD model while considering the cumulative neutropenia pattern and the combination therapy. An underprediction was observed for the PK (658 samples), the PK parameters, and these parameters were re-estimated using the original estimates as prior information. Neutrophil concentrations (3274 samples) were overpredicted by the PK/PD model, especially for later treatment cycles when the cumulative pattern aggravated neutropenia. Three different modeling approaches (two from the literature and one newly developed) were investigated. The newly developed model, which implemented the bone marrow hypothesis semiphysiologically, was superior. This model further included an additive effect for toxicity of carboplatin combination therapy. Overall, a physiologically plausible PK/PD model was developed that can be used for dose adaptation simulations and prospective studies to further improve paclitaxel/carboplatin combination therapy. Copyright © 2017 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, M; Choi, E; Chuong, M

Purpose: To evaluate weather the current radiobiological models can predict the normal liver complications of radioactive Yttrium-90 ({sup 90}Y) selective-internal-radiation-treatment (SIRT) for metastatic liver lesions based on the post-infusion {sup 90}Y PET images. Methods: A total of 20 patients with metastatic liver tumors treated with SIRT that received a post-infusion {sup 90}Y-PET/CT scan were analyzed in this work. The 3D activity distribution of the PET images was converted into a 3D dose distribution via a kernel convolution process. The physical dose distribution was converted into the equivalent dose (EQ2) delivered at 2 Gy based on the linear-quadratic (LQ) model consideringmore » the dose rate effect. The biological endpoint of this work was radiation-induce liver disease (RILD). The NTCPs were calculated with four different repair-times (T1/2-Liver-Repair= 0,0.5,1.0,2.0 hr) and three published NTCP models (Lyman-external-RT, Lyman 90Y-HCC-SIRT, parallel model) were compared to the incidence of RILD of the recruited patients to evaluate their ability of outcome prediction. Results: The mean normal liver physical dose (avg. 51.9 Gy, range 31.9–69.8 Gy) is higher than the suggested liver dose constraint for external beam treatment (∼30 Gy). However, none of the patients in our study developed RILD after the SIRT. The estimated probability of ‘no patient developing RILD’ obtained from the two Lyman models are 46.3% to 48.3% (T1/2-Liver-Repair= 0hr) and <1% for all other repair times. For the parallel model, the estimated probability is 97.3% (0hr), 51.7% (0.5hr), 2.0% (1.0hr) and <1% (2.0hr). Conclusion: Molecular-images providing the distribution of {sup 90}Y enable the dose-volume based dose/outcome analysis for SIRT. Current NTCP models fail to predict RILD complications in our patient population, unless a very short repair-time for the liver is assumed. The discrepancy between the Lyman {sup 90}Y-HCC-SIRT model predicted and the clinically observed outcomes further demonstrates the need of an NTCP model specific to the metastatic liver SIRT.« less

Assessment of hemoglobin responsiveness to epoetin alfa in patients on hemodialysis using a population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic model.

PubMed

Wu, Liviawati; Mould, Diane R; Perez Ruixo, Juan Jose; Doshi, Sameer

2015-10-01

A population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model describing the effect of epoetin alfa on hemoglobin (Hb) response in hemodialysis patients was developed. Epoetin alfa pharmacokinetics was described using a linear 2-compartment model. PK parameter estimates were similar to previously reported values. A maturation-structured cytokinetic model consisting of 5 compartments linked in a catenary fashion by first-order cell transfer rates following a zero-order input process described the Hb time course. The PD model described 2 subpopulations, one whose Hb response reflected epoetin alfa dosing and a second whose response was unrelated to epoetin alfa dosing. Parameter estimates from the PK/PD model were physiologically reasonable and consistent with published reports. Numerical and visual predictive checks using data from 2 studies were performed. The PK and PD of epoetin alfa were well described by the model. © 2015, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Assessing patient dose in interventional fluoroscopy using patient-dependent hybrid phantoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Perry Barnett

Interventional fluoroscopy uses ionizing radiation to guide small instruments through blood vessels or other body pathways to sites of clinical interest. The technique represents a tremendous advantage over invasive surgical procedures, as it requires only a small incision, thus reducing the risk of infection and providing for shorter recovery times. The growing use and increasing complexity of interventional procedures, however, has resulted in public health concerns regarding radiation exposures, particularly with respect to localized skin dose. Tracking and documenting patient-specific skin and internal organ dose has been specifically identified for interventional fluoroscopy where extended irradiation times, multiple projections, and repeat procedures can lead to some of the largest doses encountered in radiology. Furthermore, inprocedure knowledge of localized skin doses can be of significant clinical importance to managing patient risk and in training radiology residents. In this dissertation, a framework is presented for monitoring the radiation dose delivered to patients undergoing interventional procedures. The framework is built around two key points, developing better anthropomorphic models, and designing clinically relevant software systems for dose estimation. To begin, a library of 50 hybrid patient-dependent computational phantoms was developed based on the UF hybrid male and female reference phantoms. These phantoms represent a different type of anthropomorphic model whereby anthropometric parameters from an individual patient are used during phantom selection. The patient-dependent library was first validated and then used in two patient-phantom matching studies focused on cumulative organ and local skin dose. In terms of organ dose, patient-phantom matching was shown most beneficial for estimating the dose to large patients where error associated with soft tissue attenuation differences could be minimized. For small patients, inherent difference in organ size and location limited the effectiveness of matching. For skin dose, patient-phantom matching was found most beneficial for estimating the dose during lateral and anterior-posterior projections. Patient-sculpting of the patient.s outer body contour was also investigated for use during skin dose estimation and highlighted as a substantial step towards better patient-specificity. In order to utilize the models for actual patient dosimetry, two programs were developed based on the newly released Radiation Dose Structured Report (RDSR). The first program allows for the visualization of skin dose by translating the reference point air kerma to the location of the patient.s skin characterized by a computational model. The program represents an innovative tool that can be used by the interventional physician to modify behavior when clinically appropriate. The second program operates by automatically generating an input file from the RDSR which can then be run within a Monte Carlo based radiation transport code. The program has great potential for initiating and promoting the concept of 'cloud dosimetry', where patient-specific radiation transport is performed off-site and returned via the internet. Both programs are non-proprietary and transferable, and also incorporate the most advanced computational phantoms developed to date. Using the tools developed in this work, there exist a tangible opportunity to improve patient care with the end goal being a better understanding of the risk/benefit relationship that accompanies the medical use of ionizing radiation.

Hierarchical dose response of E. coli O157:H7 from human outbreaks incorporating heterogeneity in exposure.

PubMed

Teunis, P F M; Ogden, I D; Strachan, N J C

2008-06-01

The infectivity of pathogenic microorganisms is a key factor in the transmission of an infectious disease in a susceptible population. Microbial infectivity is generally estimated from dose-response studies in human volunteers. This can only be done with mildly pathogenic organisms. Here a hierarchical Beta-Poisson dose-response model is developed utilizing data from human outbreaks. On the lowest level each outbreak is modelled separately and these are then combined at a second level to produce a group dose-response relation. The distribution of foodborne pathogens often shows strong heterogeneity and this is incorporated by introducing an additional parameter to the dose-response model, accounting for the degree of overdispersion relative to Poisson distribution. It was found that heterogeneity considerably influences the shape of the dose-response relationship and increases uncertainty in predicted risk. This uncertainty is greater than previously reported surrogate and outbreak models using a single level of analysis. Monte Carlo parameter samples (alpha, beta of the Beta-Poisson model) can be readily incorporated in risk assessment models built using tools such as S-plus and @ Risk.

[Evaluation of Organ Dose Estimation from Indices of CT Dose Using Dose Index Registry].

PubMed

Iriuchijima, Akiko; Fukushima, Yasuhiro; Ogura, Akio

Direct measurement of each patient organ dose from computed tomography (CT) is not possible. Most methods to estimate patient organ dose is using Monte Carlo simulation with dedicated software. However, dedicated software is too expensive for small scale hospitals. Not every hospital can estimate organ dose with dedicated software. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the simple method of organ dose estimation using some common indices of CT dose. The Monte Carlo simulation software Radimetrics (Bayer) was used for calculating organ dose and analysis relationship between indices of CT dose and organ dose. Multidetector CT scanners were compared with those from two manufactures (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare). Using stored patient data from Radimetrics, the relationships between indices of CT dose and organ dose were indicated as each formula for estimating organ dose. The accuracy of estimation method of organ dose was compared with the results of Monte Carlo simulation using the Bland-Altman plots. In the results, SSDE was the feasible index for estimation organ dose in almost organs because it reflected each patient size. The differences of organ dose between estimation and simulation were within 23%. In conclusion, our estimation method of organ dose using indices of CT dose is convenient for clinical with accuracy.

Galactic cosmic ray radiation levels in spacecraft on interplanetary missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, J. L.; Nealy, J. E.; Townsend, L. W.; Wilson, J. W.; Wood, J.S.

1994-01-01

Using the Langley Research Center Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) transport computer code (HZETRN) and the Computerized Anatomical Man (CAM) model, crew radiation levels inside manned spacecraft on interplanetary missions are estimated. These radiation-level estimates include particle fluxes, LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra, absorbed dose, and dose equivalent within various organs of interest in GCR protection studies. Changes in these radiation levels resulting from the use of various different types of shield materials are presented.

Estimation of relative biological effectiveness for boron neutron capture therapy using the PHITS code coupled with a microdosimetric kinetic model

PubMed Central

Horiguchi, Hironori; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kumada, Hiroaki; Yamamoto, Tetsuya; Sakae, Takeji

2015-01-01

Abstract The absorbed doses deposited by boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) can be categorized into four components: α and 7Li particles from the 10B(n, α)7Li reaction, 0.54-MeV protons from the 14N(n, p)14C reaction, the recoiled protons from the 1H(n, n) 1H reaction, and photons from the neutron beam and 1H(n, γ)2H reaction. For evaluating the irradiation effect in tumors and the surrounding normal tissues in BNCT, it is of great importance to estimate the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for each dose component in the same framework. We have, therefore, established a new method for estimating the RBE of all BNCT dose components on the basis of the microdosimetric kinetic model. This method employs the probability density of lineal energy, y, in a subcellular structure as the index for expressing RBE, which can be calculated using the microdosimetric function implemented in the particle transport simulation code (PHITS). The accuracy of this method was tested by comparing the calculated RBE values with corresponding measured data in a water phantom irradiated with an epithermal neutron beam. The calculation technique developed in this study will be useful for biological dose estimation in treatment planning for BNCT. PMID:25428243

Health economic assessment of universal immunization of toddlers against Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) in Mexico

PubMed Central

Carlos, Fernando; Gómez, Jorge Alberto; Anaya, Pablo; Romano-Mazzotti, Luis

2016-01-01

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) has shifted from high to intermediate endemicity in Mexico, which may increase the risk of clinically significant HAV infections in older children, adolescents and adults. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-utility of single-dose or 2-dose universal infant HAV vaccination strategy in Mexico, compared with no vaccination. A previously published dynamic model estimated the expected number of HAV cases with each strategy, and a decision model was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) expected with each strategy. The time horizon was 25 years (2012–2036) and the base case analysis was conducted from the perspective of the Mexican public health system. Costs and QALYs after the first year were discounted at 5% annually. Input data were taken from national databases and published sources where available. The single-dose HAV vaccination strategy had an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of Mexican peso (MXN) 2,270 per QALY gained, compared with no vaccination. The two-dose strategy had an ICUR of MXN 14,961/QALY compared with no vaccination, and an ICUR of MXN 78,280/QALY compared with the single-dose strategy. The estimated ICURs were below the threshold of 1 x Mexican gross domestic product per capita. When indirect costs were included (societal perspective), the single-dose HAV vaccination strategy would be expected to improve health outcomes and to be cost-saving. This analysis indicates that routine vaccination of toddlers against HAV would be cost-effective in Mexico using either a single-dose or a 2-dose vaccination strategy. GSK study identifier: HO-12-12877. PMID:26503702

Health economic assessment of universal immunization of toddlers against Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) in Mexico.

PubMed

Carlos, Fernando; Gómez, Jorge Alberto; Anaya, Pablo; Romano-Mazzotti, Luis

2016-01-01

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) has shifted from high to intermediate endemicity in Mexico, which may increase the risk of clinically significant HAV infections in older children, adolescents and adults. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-utility of single-dose or 2-dose universal infant HAV vaccination strategy in Mexico, compared with no vaccination. A previously published dynamic model estimated the expected number of HAV cases with each strategy, and a decision model was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) expected with each strategy. The time horizon was 25 years (2012-2036) and the base case analysis was conducted from the perspective of the Mexican public health system. Costs and QALYs after the first year were discounted at 5% annually. Input data were taken from national databases and published sources where available. The single-dose HAV vaccination strategy had an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of Mexican peso (MXN) 2,270 per QALY gained, compared with no vaccination. The two-dose strategy had an ICUR of MXN 14,961/QALY compared with no vaccination, and an ICUR of MXN 78,280/QALY compared with the single-dose strategy. The estimated ICURs were below the threshold of 1 x Mexican gross domestic product per capita. When indirect costs were included (societal perspective), the single-dose HAV vaccination strategy would be expected to improve health outcomes and to be cost-saving. This analysis indicates that routine vaccination of toddlers against HAV would be cost-effective in Mexico using either a single-dose or a 2-dose vaccination strategy. GSK study identifier: HO-12-12877.

Determination of the uncertainties in radiation doses from ingestion of strontium-90

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apostoaei, Andrei Iulian

Quantification of the uncertainties in the internal dosimetry is important because it can impact the outcome of dose reconstruction, risk assessment or epidemiological studies. This research focused on determination of the uncertainties in the dose factors from a single ingestion of 90Sr by adults, and analyzed the changes with age and the effect of gender. The uncertainties in the estimated dose factors are a factor of 6 for the bone surface, 5 for the red bone marrow, 2.5 for bladder and stomach, 2.2 for the small intestine, 2.1 for the upper large intestine and 2.7 for the lower large intestine. For the rest of the organs the uncertainty is a factor of 3. Only four parameters of the biokinetic model showed an age-dependency within the adult age group: the fractional transfers of strontium from plasma to cortical and trabecular bone, and the removal rates from the cortical and trabecular bone, respectively. When age-dependent biokinetic parameters were used, the estimated dose-factors are very close to the dose factors obtained using age-independent kinetics (within 40%). Thus, the dose factors based on age-independent parameters should suffice for most practical purposes. The dose factors and the associated uncertainties were also calculated as a function of age-at-exposure and attained age. These age dependent curves can be used for estimating doses from continuous intakes, or doses delivered over a limited portion of time. In addition to the committed dose, an expected dose is also estimated in this work. The expected dose is calculated using the dose rate weighted by the probability of surviving up to the age when the dose-rate is delivered. For exposure at young ages the expected dose and the committed dose are similar, but the committed dose decreases to zero when exposure occurs close to age 70, while the expected dose has elevated values pass age 70. No gender differences were found for bone surface, for red bone marrow, and the large intestine. The doses to the soft tissues for females are larger by 20% than the doses for males, because of the differences in the whole-body mass between males and females.

Space radiation risk limits and Earth-Moon-Mars environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Kozarev, K.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

2010-12-01

We review NASA's short-term and career radiation limits for astronauts and methods for their application to future exploration missions outside of low Earth orbit. Career limits are intended to restrict late occurring health effects and include a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer and new limits for central nervous system and heart disease risks. Short-term dose limits are used to prevent in-flight radiation sickness or death through restriction of the doses to the blood forming organs and to prevent clinically significant cataracts or skin damage through lens and skin dose limits, respectively. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation, chiefly the understanding of the radiobiology of heavy ions and dose rate and dose protraction effects, and the limitations in human epidemiology data. To protect against these uncertainties NASA estimates the 95% confidence in the cancer risk projection intervals as part of astronaut flight readiness assessments and mission design. Accurate organ dose and particle spectra models are needed to ensure astronauts stay below radiation limits and to support the goal of narrowing the uncertainties in risk projections. Methodologies for evaluation of space environments, radiation quality, and organ doses to evaluate limits are discussed, and current projections for lunar and Mars missions are described.

Assessing the uncertainty in a normal tissue complication probability difference (∆NTCP): radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) in liver tumour patients treated with proton vs X-ray therapy.

PubMed

Kobashi, Keiji; Prayongrat, Anussara; Kimoto, Takuya; Toramatsu, Chie; Dekura, Yasuhiro; Katoh, Norio; Shimizu, Shinichi; Ito, Yoichi M; Shirato, Hiroki

2018-03-01

Modern radiotherapy technologies such as proton beam therapy (PBT) permit dose escalation to the tumour and minimize unnecessary doses to normal tissues. To achieve appropriate patient selection for PBT, a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model can be applied to estimate the risk of treatment-related toxicity relative to X-ray therapy (XRT). A methodology for estimating the difference in NTCP (∆NTCP), including its uncertainty as a function of dose to normal tissue, is described in this study using the Delta method, a statistical method for evaluating the variance of functions, considering the variance-covariance matrix. We used a virtual individual patient dataset of radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) in liver tumour patients who were treated with XRT as a study model. As an alternative option for individual patient data, dose-bin data, which consists of the number of patients who developed toxicity in each dose level/bin and the total number of patients in that dose level/bin, are useful for multi-institutional data sharing. It provides comparable accuracy with individual patient data when using the Delta method. With reliable NTCP models, the ∆NTCP with uncertainty might potentially guide the use of PBT; however, clinical validation and a cost-effectiveness study are needed to determine the appropriate ∆NTCP threshold.

Assessing the uncertainty in a normal tissue complication probability difference (∆NTCP): radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) in liver tumour patients treated with proton vs X-ray therapy

PubMed Central

Kobashi, Keiji; Kimoto, Takuya; Toramatsu, Chie; Dekura, Yasuhiro; Katoh, Norio; Shimizu, Shinichi; Ito, Yoichi M; Shirato, Hiroki

2018-01-01

Abstract Modern radiotherapy technologies such as proton beam therapy (PBT) permit dose escalation to the tumour and minimize unnecessary doses to normal tissues. To achieve appropriate patient selection for PBT, a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model can be applied to estimate the risk of treatment-related toxicity relative to X-ray therapy (XRT). A methodology for estimating the difference in NTCP (∆NTCP), including its uncertainty as a function of dose to normal tissue, is described in this study using the Delta method, a statistical method for evaluating the variance of functions, considering the variance–covariance matrix. We used a virtual individual patient dataset of radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) in liver tumour patients who were treated with XRT as a study model. As an alternative option for individual patient data, dose-bin data, which consists of the number of patients who developed toxicity in each dose level/bin and the total number of patients in that dose level/bin, are useful for multi-institutional data sharing. It provides comparable accuracy with individual patient data when using the Delta method. With reliable NTCP models, the ∆NTCP with uncertainty might potentially guide the use of PBT; however, clinical validation and a cost-effectiveness study are needed to determine the appropriate ∆NTCP threshold. PMID:29538699

Olfactory deposition of inhaled nanoparticles in humans

PubMed Central

Garcia, Guilherme J. M.; Schroeter, Jeffry D.; Kimbell, Julia S.

2016-01-01

Context Inhaled nanoparticles can migrate to the brain via the olfactory bulb, as demonstrated in experiments in several animal species. This route of exposure may be the mechanism behind the correlation between air pollution and human neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. Objectives This manuscript aims to (1) estimate the dose of inhaled nanoparticles that deposit in the human olfactory epithelium during nasal breathing at rest and (2) compare the olfactory dose in humans with our earlier dose estimates for rats. Materials and methods An anatomically-accurate model of the human nasal cavity was developed based on computed tomography scans. The deposition of 1–100 nm particles in the whole nasal cavity and its olfactory region were estimated via computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Our CFD methods were validated by comparing our numerical predictions for whole-nose deposition with experimental data and previous CFD studies in the literature. Results In humans, olfactory dose of inhaled nanoparticles is highest for 1–2 nm particles with approximately 1% of inhaled particles depositing in the olfactory region. As particle size grows to 100 nm, olfactory deposition decreases to 0.01% of inhaled particles. Discussion and conclusion Our results suggest that the percentage of inhaled particles that deposit in the olfactory region is lower in humans than in rats. However, olfactory dose per unit surface area is estimated to be higher in humans due to their larger minute volume. These dose estimates are important for risk assessment and dose-response studies investigating the neurotoxicity of inhaled nanoparticles. PMID:26194036

Urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate: Dose-symptom correlates with multiple-event and event-count models.

PubMed

Yahya, Noorazrul; Ebert, Martin A; Bulsara, Max; House, Michael J; Kennedy, Angel; Joseph, David J; Denham, James W

2015-11-01

This study aimed to compare urinary dose-symptom correlates after external beam radiotherapy of the prostate using commonly utilised peak-symptom models to multiple-event and event-count models which account for repeated events. Urinary symptoms (dysuria, haematuria, incontinence and frequency) from 754 participants from TROG 03.04-RADAR trial were analysed. Relative (R1-R75 Gy) and absolute (A60-A75Gy) bladder dose-surface area receiving more than a threshold dose and equivalent uniform dose using exponent a (range: a ∈[1 … 100]) were derived. The dose-symptom correlates were analysed using; peak-symptom (logistic), multiple-event (generalised estimating equation) and event-count (negative binomial regression) models. Stronger dose-symptom correlates were found for incontinence and frequency using multiple-event and/or event-count models. For dysuria and haematuria, similar or better relationships were found using peak-symptom models. Dysuria, haematuria and high grade (⩾ 2) incontinence were associated to high dose (R61-R71 Gy). Frequency and low grade (⩾ 1) incontinence were associated to low and intermediate dose-surface parameters (R13-R41Gy). Frequency showed a parallel behaviour (a=1) while dysuria, haematuria and incontinence showed a more serial behaviour (a=4 to a ⩾ 100). Relative dose-surface showed stronger dose-symptom associations. For certain endpoints, the multiple-event and event-count models provide stronger correlates over peak-symptom models. Accounting for multiple events may be advantageous for a more complete understanding of urinary dose-symptom relationships. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geometric model for evaluating the effects of inter-fraction rectal motion during prostate radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavel-Mititean, Luciana M.; Rowbottom, Carl G.; Hector, Charlotte L.; Partridge, Mike; Bortfeld, Thomas; Schlegel, Wolfgang

2004-06-01

A geometric model is presented which allows calculation of the dosimetric consequences of rectal motion in prostate radiotherapy. Variations in the position of the rectum are measured by repeat CT scanning during the courses of treatment of five patients. Dose distributions are calculated by applying the same conformal treatment plan to each imaged fraction and rectal dose-surface histograms produced. The 2D model allows isotropic expansion and contraction in the plane of each CT slice. By summing the dose to specific volume elements tracked by the model, composite dose distributions are produced that explicitly include measured inter-fraction motion for each patient. These are then used to estimate effective dose-surface histograms (DSHs) for the entire treatment. Results are presented showing the magnitudes of the measured target and rectal motion and showing the effects of this motion on the integral dose to the rectum. The possibility of using such information to calculate normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) is demonstrated and discussed.

Cardiac-Specific Conversion Factors to Estimate Radiation Effective Dose From Dose-Length Product in Computed Tomography.

PubMed

Trattner, Sigal; Halliburton, Sandra; Thompson, Carla M; Xu, Yanping; Chelliah, Anjali; Jambawalikar, Sachin R; Peng, Boyu; Peters, M Robert; Jacobs, Jill E; Ghesani, Munir; Jang, James J; Al-Khalidi, Hussein; Einstein, Andrew J

2018-01-01

This study sought to determine updated conversion factors (k-factors) that would enable accurate estimation of radiation effective dose (ED) for coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) and calcium scoring performed on 12 contemporary scanner models and current clinical cardiac protocols and to compare these methods to the standard chest k-factor of 0.014 mSv·mGy -1 cm -1 . Accurate estimation of ED from cardiac CT scans is essential to meaningfully compare the benefits and risks of different cardiac imaging strategies and optimize test and protocol selection. Presently, ED from cardiac CT is generally estimated by multiplying a scanner-reported parameter, the dose-length product, by a k-factor which was determined for noncardiac chest CT, using single-slice scanners and a superseded definition of ED. Metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor radiation detectors were positioned in organs of anthropomorphic phantoms, which were scanned using all cardiac protocols, 120 clinical protocols in total, on 12 CT scanners representing the spectrum of scanners from 5 manufacturers (GE, Hitachi, Philips, Siemens, Toshiba). Organ doses were determined for each protocol, and ED was calculated as defined in International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 103. Effective doses and scanner-reported dose-length products were used to determine k-factors for each scanner model and protocol. k-Factors averaged 0.026 mSv·mGy -1 cm -1 (95% confidence interval: 0.0258 to 0.0266) and ranged between 0.020 and 0.035 mSv·mGy -1 cm -1 . The standard chest k-factor underestimates ED by an average of 46%, ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on scanner, mode, and tube potential. Factors were higher for prospective axial versus retrospective helical scan modes, calcium scoring versus coronary CTA, and higher (100 to 120 kV) versus lower (80 kV) tube potential and varied among scanner models (range of average k-factors: 0.0229 to 0.0277 mSv·mGy -1 cm -1 ). Cardiac k-factors for all scanners and protocols are considerably higher than the k-factor currently used to estimate ED of cardiac CT studies, suggesting that radiation doses from cardiac CT have been significantly and systematically underestimated. Using cardiac-specific factors can more accurately inform the benefit-risk calculus of cardiac-imaging strategies. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A database for estimating organ dose for coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT scans for arbitrary spectra and angular tube current modulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rupcich, Franco; Badal, Andreu; Kyprianou, Iacovos

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a database for estimating organ dose in a voxelized patient model for coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT acquisitions with any spectra and angular tube current modulation setting. The database enables organ dose estimation for existing and novel acquisition techniques without requiring Monte Carlo simulations. Methods: The study simulated transport of monoenergetic photons between 5 and 150 keV for 1000 projections over 360 Degree-Sign through anthropomorphic voxelized female chest and head (0 Degree-Sign and 30 Degree-Sign tilt) phantoms and standard head and body CTDI dosimetry cylinders. The simulations resulted in tablesmore » of normalized dose deposition for several radiosensitive organs quantifying the organ dose per emitted photon for each incident photon energy and projection angle for coronary angiography and brain perfusion acquisitions. The values in a table can be multiplied by an incident spectrum and number of photons at each projection angle and then summed across all energies and angles to estimate total organ dose. Scanner-specific organ dose may be approximated by normalizing the database-estimated organ dose by the database-estimated CTDI{sub vol} and multiplying by a physical CTDI{sub vol} measurement. Two examples are provided demonstrating how to use the tables to estimate relative organ dose. In the first, the change in breast and lung dose during coronary angiography CT scans is calculated for reduced kVp, angular tube current modulation, and partial angle scanning protocols relative to a reference protocol. In the second example, the change in dose to the eye lens is calculated for a brain perfusion CT acquisition in which the gantry is tilted 30 Degree-Sign relative to a nontilted scan. Results: Our database provides tables of normalized dose deposition for several radiosensitive organs irradiated during coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT scans. Validation results indicate total organ doses calculated using our database are within 1% of those calculated using Monte Carlo simulations with the same geometry and scan parameters for all organs except red bone marrow (within 6%), and within 23% of published estimates for different voxelized phantoms. Results from the example of using the database to estimate organ dose for coronary angiography CT acquisitions show 2.1%, 1.1%, and -32% change in breast dose and 2.1%, -0.74%, and 4.7% change in lung dose for reduced kVp, tube current modulated, and partial angle protocols, respectively, relative to the reference protocol. Results show -19.2% difference in dose to eye lens for a tilted scan relative to a nontilted scan. The reported relative changes in organ doses are presented without quantification of image quality and are for the sole purpose of demonstrating the use of the proposed database. Conclusions: The proposed database and calculation method enable the estimation of organ dose for coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT scans utilizing any spectral shape and angular tube current modulation scheme by taking advantage of the precalculated Monte Carlo simulation results. The database can be used in conjunction with image quality studies to develop optimized acquisition techniques and may be particularly beneficial for optimizing dual kVp acquisitions for which numerous kV, mA, and filtration combinations may be investigated.« less

Rectal bleeding, fecal incontinence, and high stool frequency after conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer: Normal tissue complication probability modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peeters, Stephanie; Hoogeman, Mischa S.; Heemsbergen, Wilma D.

2006-09-01

Purpose: To analyze whether inclusion of predisposing clinical features in the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model improves the estimation of late gastrointestinal toxicity. Methods and Materials: This study includes 468 prostate cancer patients participating in a randomized trial comparing 68 with 78 Gy. We fitted the probability of developing late toxicity within 3 years (rectal bleeding, high stool frequency, and fecal incontinence) with the original, and a modified LKB model, in which a clinical feature (e.g., history of abdominal surgery) was taken into account by fitting subset specific TD50s. The ratio of these TD50s is the dose-modifyingmore » factor for that clinical feature. Dose distributions of anorectal (bleeding and frequency) and anal wall (fecal incontinence) were used. Results: The modified LKB model gave significantly better fits than the original LKB model. Patients with a history of abdominal surgery had a lower tolerance to radiation than did patients without previous surgery, with a dose-modifying factor of 1.1 for bleeding and of 2.5 for fecal incontinence. The dose-response curve for bleeding was approximately two times steeper than that for frequency and three times steeper than that for fecal incontinence. Conclusions: Inclusion of predisposing clinical features significantly improved the estimation of the NTCP. For patients with a history of abdominal surgery, more severe dose constraints should therefore be used during treatment plan optimization.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Otake, M.; Schull, W.J.

This paper investigates the quantitative relationship of ionizing radiation to the occurrence of posterior lenticular opacities among the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki suggested by the DS86 dosimetry system. DS86 doses are available for 1983 (93.4%) of the 2124 atomic bomb survivors analyzed in 1982. The DS86 kerma neutron component for Hiroshima survivors is much smaller than its comparable T65DR component, but still 4.2-fold higher (0.38 Gy at 6 Gy) than that in Nagasaki (0.09 Gy at 6 Gy). Thus, if the eye is especially sensitive to neutrons, there may yet be some useful information onmore » their effects, particularly in Hiroshima. The dose-response relationship has been evaluated as a function of the separately estimated gamma-ray and neutron doses. Among several different dose-response models without and with two thresholds, we have selected as the best model the one with the smallest x2 or the largest log likelihood value associated with the goodness of fit. The best fit is a linear gamma-linear neutron relationship which assumes different thresholds for the two types of radiation. Both gamma and neutron regression coefficients for the best fitting model are positive and highly significant for the estimated DS86 eye organ dose.« less

Internal thyroid doses to Fukushima residents-estimation and issues remaining.

PubMed

Kim, Eunjoo; Kurihara, Osamu; Kunishima, Naoaki; Momose, Takumaro; Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Akashi, Makoto

2016-08-01

Enormous quantities of radionuclides were released into the environment following the disastrous accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in March 2011. It is of great importance to determine the exposure doses received by the populations living in the radiologically affected areas; however, there has been significant difficulty in estimating the internal thyroid dose received through the intake of short-lived radionuclides (mainly, (131)I), because of the lack of early measurements on people. An estimation by the National Institute of Radiological Sciences for 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 was thus performed using a combination of the following three sources: thyroid measurement data ((131)I) for 1080 children examined in the screening campaign, whole-body counter measurement data ((134)Cs, (137)Cs) for 3000 adults, and atmospheric transport dispersion model simulations. In this study, the residents of Futaba town, Iitate village and Iwaki city were shown to have the highest thyroid equivalent dose, and their doses were estimated to be mostly below 30 mSv. However, this result involved a lot of uncertainties and provided only representative values for the residents. The present paper outlines a more recent dose estimation and preliminary analyses of personal behavior data used in the new method. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mars surface radiation exposure for solar maximum conditions and 1989 solar proton events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

1992-01-01

The Langley heavy-ion/nucleon transport code, HZETRN, and the high-energy nucleon transport code, BRYNTRN, are used to predict the propagation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR's) and solar flare protons through the carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars. Particle fluences and the resulting doses are estimated on the surface of Mars for GCR's during solar maximum conditions and the Aug., Sep., and Oct. 1989 solar proton events. These results extend previously calculated surface estimates for GCR's at solar minimum conditions and the Feb. 1956, Nov. 1960, and Aug. 1972 solar proton events. Surface doses are estimated with both a low-density and a high-density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere for altitudes of 0, 4, 8, and 12 km above the surface. A solar modulation function is incorporated to estimate the GCR dose variation between solar minimum and maximum conditions over the 11-year solar cycle. By using current Mars mission scenarios, doses to the skin, eye, and blood-forming organs are predicted for short- and long-duration stay times on the Martian surface throughout the solar cycle.

Ecposure Related Dose Estimating Model

EPA Science Inventory

ERDEM is a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling system consisting of a general model and an associated front end. An actual model is defined when the user prepares an input command file. Such a command file defines the chemicals, compartments and processes that...

A Comparison of Model Calculation and Measurement of Absorbed Dose for Proton Irradiation. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapp, N.; Semones, E.; Saganti, P.; Cucinotta, F.

2003-01-01

With the increase in the amount of time spent EVA that is necessary to complete the construction and subsequent maintenance of ISS, it will become increasingly important for ground support personnel to accurately characterize the radiation exposures incurred by EVA crewmembers. Since exposure measurements cannot be taken within the organs of interest, it is necessary to estimate these exposures by calculation. To validate the methods and tools used to develop these estimates, it is necessary to model experiments performed in a controlled environment. This work is such an effort. A human phantom was outfitted with detector equipment and then placed in American EMU and Orlan-M EVA space suits. The suited phantom was irradiated at the LLUPTF with proton beams of known energies. Absorbed dose measurements were made by the spaceflight operational dosimetrist from JSC at multiple sites in the skin, eye, brain, stomach, and small intestine locations in the phantom. These exposures are then modeled using the BRYNTRN radiation transport code developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, and the CAM (computerized anatomical male) human geometry model of Billings and Yucker. Comparisons of absorbed dose calculations with measurements show excellent agreement. This suggests that there is reason to be confident in the ability of both the transport code and the human body model to estimate proton exposure in ground-based laboratory experiments.

Deposition of aerosol particles in human lungs: in vivo measurements and modeling

EPA Science Inventory

The deposition dose and site of inhaled particles within the lung are the key determinants in health risk assessment of particulate pollutants. Accurate dose estimation, however, is a formidable task because aerosol transport and deposition in the lung are governed by many factor...

Radiation doses for pediatric nuclear medicine studies: comparing the North American consensus guidelines and the pediatric dosage card of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine.

PubMed

Grant, Frederick D; Gelfand, Michael J; Drubach, Laura A; Treves, S Ted; Fahey, Frederic H

2015-04-01

Estimated radiation dose is important for assessing and communicating the risks and benefits of pediatric nuclear medicine studies. Radiation dose depends on the radiopharmaceutical, the administered activity, and patient factors such as age and size. Most radiation dose estimates for pediatric nuclear medicine have not been based on administered activities of radiopharmaceuticals recommended by established practice guidelines. The dosage card of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) and the North American consensus guidelines each provide recommendations of administered activities of radiopharmaceuticals in children, but there are substantial differences between these two guidelines. For 12 commonly performed pediatric nuclear medicine studies, two established pediatric radiopharmaceutical administration guidelines were used to calculate updated radiation dose estimates and to compare the radiation exposure resulting from the recommendations of each of the guidelines. Estimated radiation doses were calculated for 12 common procedures in pediatric nuclear medicine using administered activities recommended by the dosage card of the EANM (version 1.5.2008) and the 2010 North American consensus guidelines for radiopharmaceutical administered activities in pediatrics. Based on standard models and nominal age-based weights, radiation dose was estimated for typical patients at ages 1, 5, 10 and 15 years and adult. The resulting effective doses were compared, with differences greater than 20% considered significant. Following either the EANM dosage card or the 2010 North American guidelines, the highest effective doses occur with radiopharmaceuticals labeled with fluorine-18 and iodine-123. In 24% of cases, following the North American consensus guidelines would result in a substantially higher radiation dose. The guidelines of the EANM dosage card would lead to a substantially higher radiation dose in 39% of all cases, and in 62% of cases in which patients were age 5 years or younger. For 12 commonly performed pediatric nuclear medicine studies, updated radiation dose estimates can guide efforts to reduce radiation exposure and provide current information for discussing radiation exposure and risk with referring physicians, patients and families. There can be substantial differences in radiation exposure for the same procedure, depending upon which of these two guidelines is followed. This discordance identifies opportunities for harmonization of the guidelines, which may lead to further reduction in nuclear medicine radiation doses in children.

NASA space cancer risk model-2014: Uncertainties due to qualitative differences in biological effects of HZE particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from exposures to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — comprised of protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei are an important limitation to long duration space travel. HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation leading to large uncertainties in predicting risks to humans. Our NASA Space Cancer Risk Model-2012 (NSCR-2012) for estimating lifetime cancer risks from space radiation included several new features compared to earlier models from the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) used at NASA. New features of NSCR-2012 included the introduction of NASA defined radiation quality factors based on track structure concepts, a Bayesian analysis of the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) and its uncertainty, and the use of a never-smoker population to represent astronauts. However, NSCR-2012 did not include estimates of the role of qualitative differences between HZE particles and low LET radiation. In this report we discuss evidence for non-targeted effects increasing cancer risks at space relevant HZE particle absorbed doses in tissue (<0.2 Gy), and for increased tumor lethality due to the propensity for higher rates of metastatic tumors from high LET radiation suggested by animal experiments. The NSCR-2014 model considers how these qualitative differences modify the overall probability distribution functions (PDF) for cancer mortality risk estimates from space radiation. Predictions of NSCR-2014 for International Space Station missions and Mars exploration will be described, and compared to those of our earlier NSCR-2012 model.

Comparison of three light doses in the photodynamic treatment of actinic keratosis using mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignion-Dewalle, Anne-Sophie; Betrouni, Nacim; Tylcz, Jean-Baptiste; Vermandel, Maximilien; Mortier, Laurent; Mordon, Serge

2015-05-01

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is an emerging treatment modality for various diseases, especially for cancer therapy. Although high efficacy is demonstrated for PDT using standardized protocols in nonhyperkeratotic actinic keratoses, alternative light doses expected to increase efficiency, to reduce adverse effects or to expand the use of PDT, are still being evaluated and refined. We propose a comparison of the three most common light doses in the treatment of actinic keratosis with 5-aminolevulinic acid PDT through mathematical modeling. The proposed model is based on an iterative procedure that involves determination of the local fluence rate, updating of the local optical properties, and estimation of the local damage induced by the therapy. This model was applied on a simplified skin sample model including an actinic keratosis lesion, with three different light doses (red light dose, 37 J/cm2, 75 mW/cm2, 500 s blue light dose, 10 J/cm2, 10 mW/cm2, 1000 s and daylight dose, 9000 s). Results analysis shows that the three studied light doses, although all efficient, lead to variable local damage. Defining reference damage enables the nonoptimal parameters for the current light doses to be refined and the treatment to be more suitable.

Model-based adaptive phase I trial design of post-transplant decitabine maintenance in myelodysplastic syndrome.

PubMed

Han, Seunghoon; Kim, Yoo-Jin; Lee, Jongtae; Jeon, Sangil; Hong, Taegon; Park, Gab-Jin; Yoon, Jae-Ho; Yahng, Seung-Ah; Shin, Seung-Hwan; Lee, Sung-Eun; Eom, Ki-Seong; Kim, Hee-Je; Min, Chang-Ki; Lee, Seok; Yim, Dong-Seok

2015-10-23

This report focuses on the adaptive phase I trial design aimed to find the clinically applicable dose for decitabine maintenance treatment after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with higher-risk myelodysplastic syndrome and secondary acute myeloid leukemia. The first cohort (three patients) was given the same initial daily dose of decitabine (5 mg/m(2)/day, five consecutive days with 4-week intervals). In all cohorts, the doses for Cycles 2 to 4 were individualized using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling and simulations. The goal of dose individualization was to determine the maximum dose for each patient at which the occurrence of grade 4 (CTC-AE) toxicities for both platelet and neutrophil counts could be avoided. The initial doses for the following cohorts were also estimated with the data from the previous cohorts in the same manner. In all but one patient (14 out of 15), neutrophil count was the dose-limiting factor throughout the cycles. In cycles where doses were individualized, the median neutrophil nadir observed was 1100/mm(3) (grade 2) and grade 4 toxicity occurred in 5.1 % of all cycles (while it occurred in 36.8 % where doses were not individualized). The initial doses estimated for cohorts 2 to 5 were 4, 5, 5.5, and 5 mg/m(2)/day, respectively. The median maintenance dose was 7 mg/m(2)/day. We determined the acceptable starting dose and individualized the maintenance dose for each patient, while minimizing the toxicity using the adaptive approach. Currently, 5 mg/m(2)/day is considered to be the most appropriate starting dose for the regimen studied. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01277484.

Systematic investigation on the validity of partition model dosimetry for 90Y radioembolization using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz Hashikin, Nurul Ab; Yeong, Chai-Hong; Guatelli, Susanna; Jeet Abdullah, Basri Johan; Ng, Kwan-Hoong; Malaroda, Alessandra; Rosenfeld, Anatoly; Perkins, Alan Christopher

2017-09-01

We aimed to investigate the validity of the partition model (PM) in estimating the absorbed doses to liver tumour ({{D}T} ), normal liver tissue ({{D}NL} ) and lungs ({{D}L} ), when cross-fire irradiations between these compartments are being considered. MIRD-5 phantom incorporated with various treatment parameters, i.e. tumour involvement (TI), tumour-to-normal liver uptake ratio (T/N) and lung shunting (LS), were simulated using the Geant4 Monte Carlo (MC) toolkit. 108 track histories were generated for each combination of the three parameters to obtain the absorbed dose per activity uptake in each compartment (DT{{AT}} , DNL{{ANL}} , and DL{{AL}} ). The administered activities, A were estimated using PM, so as to achieve either limiting doses to normal liver, DNLlim or lungs, ~DLlim (70 or 30 Gy, respectively). Using these administered activities, the activity uptake in each compartment ({{A}T} , {{A}NL} , and {{A}L} ) was estimated and multiplied with the absorbed dose per activity uptake attained using the MC simulations, to obtain the actual dose received by each compartment. PM overestimated {{D}L} by 11.7% in all cases, due to the escaped particles from the lungs. {{D}T} and {{D}NL} by MC were largely affected by T/N, which were not considered by PM due to cross-fire exclusion at the tumour-normal liver boundary. These have resulted in the overestimation of {{D}T} by up to 8% and underestimation of {{D}NL} by as high as  -78%, by PM. When DNLlim was estimated via PM, the MC simulations showed significantly higher {{D}NL} for cases with higher T/N, and LS  ⩽  10%. All {{D}L} and {{D}T} by MC were overestimated by PM, thus DLlim were never exceeded. PM leads to inaccurate dose estimations due to the exclusion of cross-fire irradiation, i.e. between the tumour and normal liver tissue. Caution should be taken for cases with higher TI and T/N, and lower LS, as they contribute to major underestimation of {{D}NL} . For {{D}L} , a different correction factor for dose calculation may be used for improved accuracy.

Radiobiological Determination of Dose Escalation and Normal Tissue Toxicity in Definitive Chemoradiation Therapy for Esophageal Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warren, Samantha, E-mail: Samantha.warren@oncology.ox.ac.uk; Partridge, Mike; Carrington, Rhys

2014-10-01

Purpose: This study investigated the trade-off in tumor coverage and organ-at-risk sparing when applying dose escalation for concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CRT) of mid-esophageal cancer, using radiobiological modeling to estimate local control and normal tissue toxicity. Methods and Materials: Twenty-one patients with mid-esophageal cancer were selected from the SCOPE1 database (International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials number 47718479), with a mean planning target volume (PTV) of 327 cm{sup 3}. A boost volume, PTV2 (GTV + 0.5 cm margin), was created. Radiobiological modeling of tumor control probability (TCP) estimated the dose required for a clinically significant (+20%) increase in local control as 62.5more » Gy/25 fractions. A RapidArc (RA) plan with a simultaneously integrated boost (SIB) to PTV2 (RA{sub 62.5}) was compared to a standard dose plan of 50 Gy/25 fractions (RA{sub 50}). Dose-volume metrics and estimates of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for heart and lungs were compared. Results: Clinically acceptable dose escalation was feasible for 16 of 21 patients, with significant gains (>18%) in tumor control from 38.2% (RA{sub 50}) to 56.3% (RA{sub 62.5}), and only a small increase in predicted toxicity: median heart NTCP 4.4% (RA{sub 50}) versus 5.6% (RA{sub 62.5}) P<.001 and median lung NTCP 6.5% (RA{sub 50}) versus 7.5% (RA{sub 62.5}) P<.001. Conclusions: Dose escalation to the GTV to improve local control is possible when overlap between PTV and organ-at-risk (<8% heart volume and <2.5% lung volume overlap for this study) generates only negligible increase in lung or heart toxicity. These predictions from radiobiological modeling should be tested in future clinical trials.« less

Radiation exposure for manned Mars surface missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Wilson, John W.

1990-01-01

The Langley cosmic ray transport code and the Langley nucleon transport code (BRYNTRN) are used to quantify the transport and attenuation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar proton flares through the Martian atmosphere. Surface doses are estimated using both a low density and a high density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere which, in the vertical direction, provides a total of 16 g/sq cm and 22 g/sq cm of protection, respectively. At the Mars surface during the solar minimum cycle, a blood-forming organ (BFO) dose equivalent of 10.5 to 12 rem/yr due to galactic cosmic ray transport and attenuation is calculated. Estimates of the BFO dose equivalents which would have been incurred from the three large solar flare events of August 1972, November 1960, and February 1956 are also calculated at the surface. Results indicate surface BFO dose equivalents of approximately 2 to 5, 5 to 7, and 8 to 10 rem per event, respectively. Doses are also estimated at altitudes up to 12 km above the Martian surface where the atmosphere will provide less total protection.

Radiation dose to critical body organs for October 1989 proton event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, Lisa C.; Atwell, William; Nealy, John E.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

1992-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-7) provides high-quality environmental data about the temporal development and energy characteristics of the protons emitted during a solar particle event. The GOES-7 time history of the hourly averaged integral proton flux for various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event occurring October 19-29, 1989. This event is similar to the August 1972 event that has been widely studied to estimate free-space and planetary radiation-protection requirements. By analyzing the time-history data, the dose rates, which can vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare, can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. When basic transport results are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions calculated with the Computerized Anatomical Man and Computerized Anatomical Female models, the dose rates and cumulative doses to specific organs can be predicted. With these results, the risks of cancer incidence and mortality are estimated for astronauts in free space protected by various water shield thicknesses.

[Medical Applications of the PHITS Code I: Recent Improvements and Biological Dose Estimation Model].

PubMed

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Furuta, Takuya; Hashimoto, Shintaro; Kuga, Naoya

2015-01-01

PHITS is a general purpose Monte Carlo particle transport simulation code developed through the collaboration of several institutes mainly in Japan. It can analyze the motion of nearly all radiations over wide energy ranges in 3-dimensional matters. It has been used for various applications including medical physics. This paper reviews the recent improvements of the code, together with the biological dose estimation method developed on the basis of the microdosimetric function implemented in PHITS.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for 6-mercpatopurine: exploring the role of genetic polymorphism in TPMT enzyme activity

PubMed Central

Ogungbenro, Kayode; Aarons, Leon

2015-01-01

Aims To extend the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model developed for 6-mercaptopurine to account for intracellular metabolism and to explore the role of genetic polymorphism in the TPMT enzyme on the pharmacokinetics of 6-mercaptopurine. Methods The developed PBPK model was extended for 6-mercaptopurine to account for intracellular metabolism and genetic polymorphism in TPMT activity. System and drug specific parameters were obtained from the literature or estimated using plasma or intracellular red blood cell concentrations of 6-mercaptopurine and its metabolites. Age-dependent changes in parameters were implemented for scaling, and variability was also introduced for simulation. The model was validated using published data. Results The model was extended successfully. Parameter estimation and model predictions were satisfactory. Prediction of intracellular red blood cell concentrations of 6-thioguanine nucleotide for different TPMT phenotypes (in a clinical study that compared conventional and individualized dosing) showed results that were consistent with observed values and reported incidence of haematopoietic toxicity. Following conventional dosing, the predicted mean concentrations for homozygous and heterozygous variants, respectively, were about 10 times and two times the levels for wild-type. However, following individualized dosing, the mean concentration was around the same level for the three phenotypes despite different doses. Conclusions The developed PBPK model has been extended for 6-mercaptopurine and can be used to predict plasma 6-mercaptopurine and tissue concentration of 6-mercaptopurine, 6-thioguanine nucleotide and 6-methylmercaptopurine ribonucleotide in adults and children. Predictions of reported data from clinical studies showed satisfactory results. The model may help to improve 6-mercaptopurine dosing, achieve better clinical outcome and reduce toxicity. PMID:25614061

New Fetal Dose Estimates from 18F-FDG Administered During Pregnancy: Standardization of Dose Calculations and Estimations with Voxel-Based Anthropomorphic Phantoms.

PubMed

Zanotti-Fregonara, Paolo; Chastan, Mathieu; Edet-Sanson, Agathe; Ekmekcioglu, Ozgul; Erdogan, Ezgi Basak; Hapdey, Sebastien; Hindie, Elif; Stabin, Michael G

2016-11-01

Data from the literature show that the fetal absorbed dose from 18 F-FDG administration to the pregnant mother ranges from 0.5E-2 to 4E-2 mGy/MBq. These figures were, however, obtained using different quantification techniques and with basic geometric anthropomorphic phantoms. The aim of this study was to refine the fetal dose estimates of published as well as new cases using realistic voxel-based phantoms. The 18 F-FDG doses to the fetus (n = 19; 5-34 wk of pregnancy) were calculated with new voxel-based anthropomorphic phantoms of the pregnant woman. The image-derived fetal time-integrated activity values were combined with those of the mothers' organs from the International Commission on Radiological Protection publication 106 and the dynamic bladder model with a 1-h bladder-voiding interval. The dose to the uterus was used as a proxy for early pregnancy (up to 10 wk). The time-integrated activities were entered into OLINDA/EXM 1.1 to derive the dose with the classic anthropomorphic phantoms of pregnant women, then into OLINDA/EXM 2.0 to assess the dose using new voxel-based phantoms. The average fetal doses (mGy/MBq) with OLINDA/EXM 2.0 were 2.5E-02 in early pregnancy, 1.3E-02 in the late part of the first trimester, 8.5E-03 in the second trimester, and 5.1E-03 in the third trimester. The differences compared with the doses calculated with OLINDA/EXM 1.1 were +7%, +70%, +35%, and -8%, respectively. Except in late pregnancy, the doses estimated with realistic voxelwise anthropomorphic phantoms are higher than the doses derived from old geometric phantoms. The doses remain, however, well below the threshold for any deterministic effects. Thus, pregnancy is not an absolute contraindication of a clinically justified 18 F-FDG PET scan. © 2016 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Increased therapeutic ratio by 18FDG-PET CT planning in patients with clinical CT stage N2-N3M0 non-small-cell lung cancer: a modeling study.

PubMed

van Der Wel, Antoinet; Nijsten, Sebastiaan; Hochstenbag, Monique; Lamers, Rob; Boersma, Liesbeth; Wanders, Rinus; Lutgens, Ludy; Zimny, Michael; Bentzen, Søren M; Wouters, Brad; Lambin, Philippe; De Ruysscher, Dirk

2005-03-01

With this modeling study, we wanted to estimate the potential gain from incorporating fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scanning in the radiotherapy treatment planning of CT Stage N2-N3M0 non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Twenty-one consecutive patients with clinical CT Stage N2-N3M0 NSCLC were studied. For each patient, two three-dimensional conformal treatment plans were made: one with a CT-based planning target volume (PTV) and one with a PET-CT-based PTV, both to deliver 60 Gy in 30 fractions. From the dose-volume histograms and dose distributions on each plan, the dosimetric factors predicting esophageal and lung toxicity were analyzed and compared. For each patient, the maximal tolerable prescribed radiation dose for the CT PTV vs. PET-CT PTV was calculated according to the constraints for the lung, esophagus, and spinal cord. From these results, the tumor control probability (TCP) was estimated, assuming a clinical dose-response curve with a median toxic dose of 84.5 Gy and a gamma(50) of 2.0. Dose-response curves were modeled, taking into account geographic misses according to the accuracy of CT and PET in our institutions. The gross tumor volume of the nodes decreased from 13.7 +/- 3.8 cm(3) on the CT scan to 9.9 +/- 4.0 cm(3) on the PET-CT scan (p = 0.011). All dose-volume characteristics for the esophagus and lungs decreased in favor of PET-CT. The esophageal V(45) (the volume of the esophagus receiving 45 Gy) decreased from 45.2% +/- 4.9% to 34.0% +/- 5.8% (p = 0.003), esophageal V(55) (the volume of the esophagus receiving 55 Gy) from 30.6% +/- 3.2% to 21.9% +/- 3.8% (p = 0.004), mean esophageal dose from 29.8 +/- 2.5 Gy to 23.7 +/- 3.1 Gy (p = 0.004), lung V(20) (the volume of the lungs minus the PTV receiving 20 Gy) from 24.9% +/- 2.3% to 22.3% +/- 2.2% (p = 0.012), and mean lung dose from 14.7 +/- 1.3 Gy to 13.6 +/- 1.3 Gy (p = 0.004). For the same toxicity levels of the lung, esophagus, and spinal cord, the dose could be increased from 56.0 +/- 5.4 Gy with CT planning to 71.0 +/- 13.7 Gy with PET planning (p = 0.038). The TCP corresponding to these doses was estimated to be 14.2% +/- 5.6% for CT and 22.8% +/- 7.1% for PET-CT planning (p = 0.026). Adjusting for geographic misses by PET-CT vs. CT planning yielded TCP estimates of 12.5% and 18.3% (p = 0.009) for CT and PET-CT planning, respectively. In this group of clinical CT Stage N2-N3 NSCLC patients, use of FDG-PET scanning information in radiotherapy planning reduced the radiation exposure of the esophagus and lung, and thus allowed significant radiation dose escalation while respecting all relevant normal tissue constraints. This, together with a reduced risk of geographic misses using PET-CT, led to an estimated increase in TCP from 13% to 18%. The results of this modeling study support clinical trials investigating incorporation of FDG-PET information in CT-based radiotherapy planning.

The effects of small field dosimetry on the biological models used in evaluating IMRT dose distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardarelli, Gene A.

The primary goal in radiation oncology is to deliver lethal radiation doses to tumors, while minimizing dose to normal tissue. IMRT has the capability to increase the dose to the targets and decrease the dose to normal tissue, increasing local control, decrease toxicity and allow for effective dose escalation. This advanced technology does present complex dose distributions that are not easily verified. Furthermore, the dose inhomogeneity caused by non-uniform dose distributions seen in IMRT treatments has caused the development of biological models attempting to characterize the dose-volume effect in the response of organized tissues to radiation. Dosimetry of small fields can be quite challenging when measuring dose distributions for high-energy X-ray beams used in IMRT. The proper modeling of these small field distributions is essential in reproducing accurate dose for IMRT. This evaluation was conducted to quantify the effects of small field dosimetry on IMRT plan dose distributions and the effects on four biological model parameters. The four biological models evaluated were: (1) the generalized Equivalent Uniform Dose (gEUD), (2) the Tumor Control Probability (TCP), (3) the Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) and (4) the Probability of uncomplicated Tumor Control (P+). These models are used to estimate local control, survival, complications and uncomplicated tumor control. This investigation compares three distinct small field dose algorithms. Dose algorithms were created using film, small ion chamber, and a combination of ion chamber measurements and small field fitting parameters. Due to the nature of uncertainties in small field dosimetry and the dependence of biological models on dose volume information, this examination quantifies the effects of small field dosimetry techniques on radiobiological models and recommends pathways to reduce the errors in using these models to evaluate IMRT dose distributions. This study demonstrates the importance of valid physical dose modeling prior to the use of biological modeling. The success of using biological function data, such as hypoxia, in clinical IMRT planning will greatly benefit from the results of this study.

Factoring vs linear modeling in rate estimation: a simulation study of relative accuracy.

PubMed

Maldonado, G; Greenland, S

1998-07-01

A common strategy for modeling dose-response in epidemiology is to transform ordered exposures and covariates into sets of dichotomous indicator variables (that is, to factor the variables). Factoring tends to increase estimation variance, but it also tends to decrease bias and thus may increase or decrease total accuracy. We conducted a simulation study to examine the impact of factoring on the accuracy of rate estimation. Factored and unfactored Poisson regression models were fit to follow-up study datasets that were randomly generated from 37,500 population model forms that ranged from subadditive to supramultiplicative. In the situations we examined, factoring sometimes substantially improved accuracy relative to fitting the corresponding unfactored model, sometimes substantially decreased accuracy, and sometimes made little difference. The difference in accuracy between factored and unfactored models depended in a complicated fashion on the difference between the true and fitted model forms, the strength of exposure and covariate effects in the population, and the study size. It may be difficult in practice to predict when factoring is increasing or decreasing accuracy. We recommend, therefore, that the strategy of factoring variables be supplemented with other strategies for modeling dose-response.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Rifapentine and Desacetyl Rifapentine in Healthy Volunteers: Nonlinearities in Clearance and Bioavailability

PubMed Central

Lu, Yanhui; Bliven-Sizemore, Erin; Weiner, Marc; Nuermberger, Eric; Burman, William; Dorman, Susan E.; Dooley, Kelly E.

2014-01-01

Rifapentine is under active investigation as a potent drug that may help shorten the tuberculosis (TB) treatment duration. A previous rifapentine dose escalation study with daily dosing indicated a possible decrease in bioavailability as the dose increased and an increase in clearance over time for rifapentine and its active metabolite, desacetyl rifapentine. This study aimed to assess the effects of increasing doses on rifapentine absorption and bioavailability and to evaluate the clearance changes over 14 days. A population analysis was performed with nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Absorption, time-varying clearance, bioavailability, and empirical and semimechanistic autoinduction models were investigated. A one-compartment model linked to a transit compartment absorption model best described the data. The bioavailability of rifapentine decreased linearly by 2.5% for each 100-mg increase in dose. The autoinduction model suggested a dose-independent linear increase in clearance of the parent drug and metabolite over time from 1.2 and 3.1 liters · h−1, respectively, after a single dose to 2.2 and 5.0 liters · h−1, respectively, after 14 once-daily doses, with no plateau being reached by day 14. In clinical trial simulations using the final model, rifapentine demonstrated less-than-dose-proportional pharmacokinetics, but there was no plateau in exposures over the dose range tested (450 to 1,800 mg), and divided dosing increased exposures significantly. Thus, the proposed compartmental model incorporating daily dosing of rifapentine over a wide range of doses and time-related changes in bioavailability and clearance provides a useful tool for estimation of drug exposure that can be used to optimize rifapentine dosing for TB treatment. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01162486.) PMID:24614383

Neutron emission and dose distribution from natural carbon irradiated with a 12 MeV amu-1 12C5+ ion beam.

PubMed

Nandy, Maitreyee; Sarkar, P K; Sanami, T; Takada, M; Shibata, T

2016-09-01

Measured neutron energy distribution emitted from a thick stopping target of natural carbon at 0°, 30°, 60° and 90° from nuclear reactions caused by 12 MeV amu -1 incident 12 C 5+ ions were converted to energy differential and total neutron absorbed dose as well as ambient dose equivalent H * (10) using the fluence-to-dose conversion coefficients provided by the ICRP. Theoretical estimates were obtained using the Monte Carlo nuclear reaction model code PACE and a few existing empirical formulations for comparison. Results from the PACE code showed an underestimation of the high-energy part of energy differential dose distributions at forward angles whereas the empirical formulation by Clapier and Zaidins (1983 Nucl. Instrum. Methods 217 489-94) approximated the energy integrated angular distribution of H * (10) satisfactorily. Using the measured data, the neutron doses received by some vital human organs were estimated for anterior-posterior exposure. The estimated energy-averaged quality factors were found to vary for different organs from about 7 to about 13. Emitted neutrons having energies above 20 MeV were found to contribute about 20% of the total dose at 0° while at 90° the contribution was reduced to about 2%.

Comparison of CREME (cosmic-ray effects on microelectronics) model LET (linear energy transfer) spaceflight dosimetry data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letaw, J.R.; Adams, J.H.

The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) component of space radiation is the dominant cause of single-event phenomena in microelectronic circuits when Earth's magnetic shielding is low. Spaceflights outside the magnetosphere and in high inclination orbits are examples of such circumstances. In high-inclination orbits, low-energy (high LET) particles are transmitted through the field only at extreme latitudes, but can dominate the orbit-averaged dose. GCR is an important part of the radiation dose to astronauts under the same conditions. As a test of the CREME environmental model and particle transport codes used to estimate single event upsets, we have compiled existing measurements ofmore » HZE doses were compiled where GCR is expected to be important: Apollo 16 and 17, Skylab, Apollo Soyuz Test Project, and Kosmos 782. The LET spectra, due to direct ionization from GCR, for each of these missions has been estimated. The resulting comparisons with data validate the CREME model predictions of high-LET galactic cosmic-ray fluxes to within a factor of two. Some systematic differences between the model and data are identified.« less

42 CFR 81.11 - Use of uncertainty analysis in NIOSH-IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... uncertainties in estimating: radiation dose incurred by the covered employee; the radiation dose-cancer relationship (statistical uncertainty in the specific cancer risk model); the extrapolation of risk (risk transfer) from the Japanese to the U.S. population; differences in the amount of cancer effect caused by...

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN STRATEGY FOR THE WEIBULL DOSE RESPONSE MODEL (JOURNAL VERSION)

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of the research was to determine optimum design point allocation for estimation of relative yield losses from ozone pollution when the true and fitted yield-ozone dose response relationship follows the Weibull. The optimum design is dependent on the values of the We...

42 CFR 81.11 - Use of uncertainty analysis in NIOSH-IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... uncertainties in estimating: radiation dose incurred by the covered employee; the radiation dose-cancer relationship (statistical uncertainty in the specific cancer risk model); the extrapolation of risk (risk transfer) from the Japanese to the U.S. population; differences in the amount of cancer effect caused by...

42 CFR 81.11 - Use of uncertainty analysis in NIOSH-IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... uncertainties in estimating: radiation dose incurred by the covered employee; the radiation dose-cancer relationship (statistical uncertainty in the specific cancer risk model); the extrapolation of risk (risk transfer) from the Japanese to the U.S. population; differences in the amount of cancer effect caused by...

42 CFR 81.11 - Use of uncertainty analysis in NIOSH-IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... uncertainties in estimating: radiation dose incurred by the covered employee; the radiation dose-cancer relationship (statistical uncertainty in the specific cancer risk model); the extrapolation of risk (risk transfer) from the Japanese to the U.S. population; differences in the amount of cancer effect caused by...

42 CFR 81.11 - Use of uncertainty analysis in NIOSH-IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... uncertainties in estimating: radiation dose incurred by the covered employee; the radiation dose-cancer relationship (statistical uncertainty in the specific cancer risk model); the extrapolation of risk (risk transfer) from the Japanese to the U.S. population; differences in the amount of cancer effect caused by...

Comparing probabilistic and descriptive analyses of time–dose–toxicity relationship for determining no-observed-adverse-effect level in drug development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glatard, Anaïs; Berges, Aliénor; Sahota, Tarjinder

The no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) of a drug defined from animal studies is important for inferring a maximal safe dose in human. However, several issues are associated with its concept, determination and application. It is confined to the actual doses used in the study; becomes lower with increasing sample size or dose levels; and reflects the risk level seen in the experiment rather than what may be relevant for human. We explored a pharmacometric approach in an attempt to address these issues. We first used simulation to examine the behaviour of the NOAEL values as determined by current common practice; andmore » then fitted the probability of toxicity as a function of treatment duration and dose to data collected from all applicable toxicology studies of a test compound. Our investigation was in the context of an irreversible toxicity that is detected at the end of the study. Simulations illustrated NOAEL's dependency on experimental factors such as dose and sample size, as well as the underlying uncertainty. Modelling the probability as a continuous function of treatment duration and dose simultaneously to data from multiple studies allowed the estimation of the dose, along with its confidence interval, for a maximal risk level that might be deemed as acceptable for human. The model-based data integration also reconciled between-study inconsistency and explicitly provided maximised estimation confidence. Such alternative NOAEL determination method should be explored for its more efficient data use, more quantifiable insight to toxic doses, and the potential for more relevant animal-to-human translation. - Highlights: • Simulations revealed issues with NOAEL concept, determination and application. • Probabilistic modelling was used to address these issues. • The model integrated time-dose-toxicity data from multiple studies. • The approach uses data efficiently and may allow more meaningful human translation.« less

Quantifying the Combined Effect of Radiation Therapy and Hyperthermia in Terms of Equivalent Dose Distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kok, H. Petra, E-mail: H.P.Kok@amc.uva.nl; Crezee, Johannes; Franken, Nicolaas A.P.

2014-03-01

Purpose: To develop a method to quantify the therapeutic effect of radiosensitization by hyperthermia; to this end, a numerical method was proposed to convert radiation therapy dose distributions with hyperthermia to equivalent dose distributions without hyperthermia. Methods and Materials: Clinical intensity modulated radiation therapy plans were created for 15 prostate cancer cases. To simulate a clinically relevant heterogeneous temperature distribution, hyperthermia treatment planning was performed for heating with the AMC-8 system. The temperature-dependent parameters α (Gy{sup −1}) and β (Gy{sup −2}) of the linear–quadratic model for prostate cancer were estimated from the literature. No thermal enhancement was assumed for normalmore » tissue. The intensity modulated radiation therapy plans and temperature distributions were exported to our in-house-developed radiation therapy treatment planning system, APlan, and equivalent dose distributions without hyperthermia were calculated voxel by voxel using the linear–quadratic model. Results: The planned average tumor temperatures T90, T50, and T10 in the planning target volume were 40.5°C, 41.6°C, and 42.4°C, respectively. The planned minimum, mean, and maximum radiation therapy doses were 62.9 Gy, 76.0 Gy, and 81.0 Gy, respectively. Adding hyperthermia yielded an equivalent dose distribution with an extended 95% isodose level. The equivalent minimum, mean, and maximum doses reflecting the radiosensitization by hyperthermia were 70.3 Gy, 86.3 Gy, and 93.6 Gy, respectively, for a linear increase of α with temperature. This can be considered similar to a dose escalation with a substantial increase in tumor control probability for high-risk prostate carcinoma. Conclusion: A model to quantify the effect of combined radiation therapy and hyperthermia in terms of equivalent dose distributions was presented. This model is particularly instructive to estimate the potential effects of interaction from different treatment modalities.« less

Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Might Increase Pneumonitis Risk Relative to Three-Dimensional Conformal Radiotherapy in Patients Receiving Combined Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy: A Modeling Study of Dose Dumping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vogelius, Ivan S.; Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI; Department of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet

2011-07-01

Purpose: To model the possible interaction between cytotoxic chemotherapy and the radiation dose distribution with respect to the risk of radiation pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: A total of 18 non-small-cell lung cancer patients previously treated with helical tomotherapy at the University of Wisconsin were selected for the present modeling study. Three treatment plans were considered: the delivered tomotherapy plans; a three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) plan; and a fixed-field intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plan. The IMRT and 3D-CRT plans were generated specifically for the present study. The plans were optimized without adjusting for the chemotherapy effect. The effect of chemotherapy was modeledmore » as an independent cell killing process by considering a uniform chemotherapy equivalent radiation dose added to all voxels of the organ at risk. The risk of radiation pneumonitis was estimated for all plans using the Lyman and the critical volume models. Results: For radiotherapy alone, the critical volume model predicts that the two IMRT plans are associated with a lower risk of radiation pneumonitis than the 3D-CRT plan. However, when the chemotherapy equivalent radiation dose exceeds a certain threshold, the radiation pneumonitis risk after IMRT is greater than after 3D-CRT. This threshold dose is in the range estimated from clinical chemoradiotherapy data sets. Conclusions: Cytotoxic chemotherapy might affect the relative merit of competing radiotherapy plans. More work is needed to improve our understanding of the interaction between chemotherapy and the radiation dose distribution in clinical settings.« less

Theory of Visual Attention (TVA) applied to mice in the 5-choice serial reaction time task.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, C M; Caballero-Puntiverio, M; Gether, U; Habekost, T; Bundesen, C; Vangkilde, S; Woldbye, D P D; Andreasen, J T; Petersen, A

2017-03-01

The 5-choice serial reaction time task (5-CSRTT) is widely used to measure rodent attentional functions. In humans, many attention studies in healthy and clinical populations have used testing based on Bundesen's Theory of Visual Attention (TVA) to estimate visual processing speeds and other parameters of attentional capacity. We aimed to bridge these research fields by modifying the 5-CSRTT's design and by mathematically modelling data to derive attentional parameters analogous to human TVA-based measures. C57BL/6 mice were tested in two 1-h sessions on consecutive days with a version of the 5-CSRTT where stimulus duration (SD) probe length was varied based on information from previous TVA studies. Thereafter, a scopolamine hydrobromide (HBr; 0.125 or 0.25 mg/kg) pharmacological challenge was undertaken, using a Latin square design. Mean score values were modelled using a new three-parameter version of TVA to obtain estimates of visual processing speeds, visual thresholds and motor response baselines in each mouse. The parameter estimates for each animal were reliable across sessions, showing that the data were stable enough to support analysis on an individual level. Scopolamine HBr dose-dependently reduced 5-CSRTT attentional performance while also increasing reward collection latency at the highest dose. Upon TVA modelling, scopolamine HBr significantly reduced visual processing speed at both doses, while having less pronounced effects on visual thresholds and motor response baselines. This study shows for the first time how 5-CSRTT performance in mice can be mathematically modelled to yield estimates of attentional capacity that are directly comparable to estimates from human studies.

Model-based Iterative Reconstruction: Effect on Patient Radiation Dose and Image Quality in Pediatric Body CT

PubMed Central

Dillman, Jonathan R.; Goodsitt, Mitchell M.; Christodoulou, Emmanuel G.; Keshavarzi, Nahid; Strouse, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Purpose To retrospectively compare image quality and radiation dose between a reduced-dose computed tomographic (CT) protocol that uses model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) and a standard-dose CT protocol that uses 30% adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) with filtered back projection. Materials and Methods Institutional review board approval was obtained. Clinical CT images of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis obtained with a reduced-dose protocol were identified. Images were reconstructed with two algorithms: MBIR and 100% ASIR. All subjects had undergone standard-dose CT within the prior year, and the images were reconstructed with 30% ASIR. Reduced- and standard-dose images were evaluated objectively and subjectively. Reduced-dose images were evaluated for lesion detectability. Spatial resolution was assessed in a phantom. Radiation dose was estimated by using volumetric CT dose index (CTDIvol) and calculated size-specific dose estimates (SSDE). A combination of descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, and t tests was used for statistical analysis. Results In the 25 patients who underwent the reduced-dose protocol, mean decrease in CTDIvol was 46% (range, 19%–65%) and mean decrease in SSDE was 44% (range, 19%–64%). Reduced-dose MBIR images had less noise (P > .004). Spatial resolution was superior for reduced-dose MBIR images. Reduced-dose MBIR images were equivalent to standard-dose images for lungs and soft tissues (P > .05) but were inferior for bones (P = .004). Reduced-dose 100% ASIR images were inferior for soft tissues (P < .002), lungs (P < .001), and bones (P < .001). By using the same reduced-dose acquisition, lesion detectability was better (38% [32 of 84 rated lesions]) or the same (62% [52 of 84 rated lesions]) with MBIR as compared with 100% ASIR. Conclusion CT performed with a reduced-dose protocol and MBIR is feasible in the pediatric population, and it maintains diagnostic quality. © RSNA, 2013 Online supplemental material is available for this article. PMID:24091359

New Model for Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Cancer

PubMed Central

Janowitz, Tobias; Williams, Edward H.; Marshall, Andrea; Ainsworth, Nicola; Thomas, Peter B.; Sammut, Stephen J.; Shepherd, Scott; White, Jeff; Mark, Patrick B.; Lynch, Andy G.; Jodrell, Duncan I.; Tavaré, Simon; Earl, Helena

2017-01-01

Purpose The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential for carboplatin chemotherapy dosing; however, the best method to estimate GFR in patients with cancer is unknown. We identify the most accurate and least biased method. Methods We obtained data on age, sex, height, weight, serum creatinine concentrations, and results for GFR from chromium-51 (51Cr) EDTA excretion measurements (51Cr-EDTA GFR) from white patients ≥ 18 years of age with histologically confirmed cancer diagnoses at the Cambridge University Hospital NHS Trust, United Kingdom. We developed a new multivariable linear model for GFR using statistical regression analysis. 51Cr-EDTA GFR was compared with the estimated GFR (eGFR) from seven published models and our new model, using the statistics root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) and median residual and on an internal and external validation data set. We performed a comparison of carboplatin dosing accuracy on the basis of an absolute percentage error > 20%. Results Between August 2006 and January 2013, data from 2,471 patients were obtained. The new model improved the eGFR accuracy (RMSE, 15.00 mL/min; 95% CI, 14.12 to 16.00 mL/min) compared with all published models. Body surface area (BSA)–adjusted chronic kidney disease epidemiology (CKD-EPI) was the most accurate published model for eGFR (RMSE, 16.30 mL/min; 95% CI, 15.34 to 17.38 mL/min) for the internal validation set. Importantly, the new model reduced the fraction of patients with a carboplatin dose absolute percentage error > 20% to 14.17% in contrast to 18.62% for the BSA-adjusted CKD-EPI and 25.51% for the Cockcroft-Gault formula. The results were externally validated. Conclusion In a large data set from patients with cancer, BSA-adjusted CKD-EPI is the most accurate published model to predict GFR. The new model improves this estimation and may present a new standard of care. PMID:28686534

New Model for Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Cancer.

PubMed

Janowitz, Tobias; Williams, Edward H; Marshall, Andrea; Ainsworth, Nicola; Thomas, Peter B; Sammut, Stephen J; Shepherd, Scott; White, Jeff; Mark, Patrick B; Lynch, Andy G; Jodrell, Duncan I; Tavaré, Simon; Earl, Helena

2017-08-20

Purpose The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential for carboplatin chemotherapy dosing; however, the best method to estimate GFR in patients with cancer is unknown. We identify the most accurate and least biased method. Methods We obtained data on age, sex, height, weight, serum creatinine concentrations, and results for GFR from chromium-51 ( 51 Cr) EDTA excretion measurements ( 51 Cr-EDTA GFR) from white patients ≥ 18 years of age with histologically confirmed cancer diagnoses at the Cambridge University Hospital NHS Trust, United Kingdom. We developed a new multivariable linear model for GFR using statistical regression analysis. 51 Cr-EDTA GFR was compared with the estimated GFR (eGFR) from seven published models and our new model, using the statistics root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) and median residual and on an internal and external validation data set. We performed a comparison of carboplatin dosing accuracy on the basis of an absolute percentage error > 20%. Results Between August 2006 and January 2013, data from 2,471 patients were obtained. The new model improved the eGFR accuracy (RMSE, 15.00 mL/min; 95% CI, 14.12 to 16.00 mL/min) compared with all published models. Body surface area (BSA)-adjusted chronic kidney disease epidemiology (CKD-EPI) was the most accurate published model for eGFR (RMSE, 16.30 mL/min; 95% CI, 15.34 to 17.38 mL/min) for the internal validation set. Importantly, the new model reduced the fraction of patients with a carboplatin dose absolute percentage error > 20% to 14.17% in contrast to 18.62% for the BSA-adjusted CKD-EPI and 25.51% for the Cockcroft-Gault formula. The results were externally validated. Conclusion In a large data set from patients with cancer, BSA-adjusted CKD-EPI is the most accurate published model to predict GFR. The new model improves this estimation and may present a new standard of care.

Chlorine truck attack consequences and mitigation.

PubMed

Barrett, Anthony Michael; Adams, Peter J

2011-08-01

We develop and apply an integrated modeling system to estimate fatalities from intentional release of 17 tons of chlorine from a tank truck in a generic urban area. A public response model specifies locations and actions of the populace. A chemical source term model predicts initial characteristics of the chlorine vapor and aerosol cloud. An atmospheric dispersion model predicts cloud spreading and movement. A building air exchange model simulates movement of chlorine from outdoors into buildings at each location. A dose-response model translates chlorine exposures into predicted fatalities. Important parameters outside defender control include wind speed, atmospheric stability class, amount of chlorine released, and dose-response model parameters. Without fast and effective defense response, with 2.5 m/sec wind and stability class F, we estimate approximately 4,000 (half within ∼10 minutes) to 30,000 fatalities (half within ∼20 minutes), depending on dose-response model. Although we assume 7% of the population was outdoors, they represent 60-90% of fatalities. Changing weather conditions result in approximately 50-90% lower total fatalities. Measures such as sheltering in place, evacuation, and use of security barriers and cryogenic storage can reduce fatalities, sometimes by 50% or more, depending on response speed and other factors. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

DICOM structured report to track patient's radiation dose to organs from abdominal CT exam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morioka, Craig; Turner, Adam; McNitt-Gray, Michael; Zankl, Maria; Meng, Frank; El-Saden, Suzie

2011-03-01

The dramatic increase of diagnostic imaging capabilities over the past decade has contributed to increased radiation exposure to patient populations. Several factors have contributed to the increase in imaging procedures: wider availability of imaging modalities, increase in technical capabilities, rise in demand by patients and clinicians, favorable reimbursement, and lack of guidelines to control utilization. The primary focus of this research is to provide in depth information about radiation doses that patients receive as a result of CT exams, with the initial investigation involving abdominal CT exams. Current dose measurement methods (i.e. CTDIvol Computed Tomography Dose Index) do not provide direct information about a patient's organ dose. We have developed a method to determine CTDIvol normalized organ doses using a set of organ specific exponential regression equations. These exponential equations along with measured CTDIvol are used to calculate organ dose estimates from abdominal CT scans for eight different patient models. For each patient, organ dose and CTDIvol were estimated for an abdominal CT scan. We then modified the DICOM Radiation Dose Structured Report (RDSR) to store the pertinent patient information on radiation dose to their abdominal organs.

Population pharmacokinetics of gabapentin in healthy Korean subjects with influence of genetic polymorphisms of ABCB1.

PubMed

Tran, Phuong; Yoo, Hee-Doo; Ngo, Lien; Cho, Hea-Young; Lee, Yong-Bok

2017-12-01

The objective of this study was to perform population pharmacokinetic (PK) analysis of gabapentin in healthy Korean subjects and to investigate the possible effect of genetic polymorphisms (1236C > T, 2677G > T/A, and 3435C > T) of ABCB1 gene on PK parameters of gabapentin. Data were collected from bioequivalence studies, in which 173 subjects orally received three different doses of gabapentin (300, 400, and 800 mg). Only data from reference formulation were used. Population pharmacokinetics (PKs) of gabapentin was estimated using a nonlinear mixed-effects model (NONMEM). Gabapentin showed considerable inter-individual variability (from 5.2- to 8.7-fold) in PK parameters. Serum concentration of gabapentin was well fitted by a one-compartment model with first-order absorption and lag time. An inhibitory Emax model was applied to describe the effect of dose on bioavailability. The oral clearance was estimated to be 11.1 L/h. The volume of distribution was characterized as 81.0 L. The absorption rate constant was estimated at 0.860 h -1 , and the lag time was predicted at 0.311 h. Oral bioavailability was estimated to be 68.8% at dose of 300 mg, 62.7% at dose of 400 mg, and 47.1% at dose of 800 mg. The creatinine clearance significantly influenced on the oral clearance (P < 0.005) and ABCB1 2677G > T/A genotypes significantly influenced on the absorption rate constant (P < 0.05) of gabapentin. However, ABCB1 1236C > T and 3435C > T genotypes showed no significant effect on gabapentin PK parameters. The results of the present study indicate that the oral bioavailability of gabapentin is decreased when its dosage is increased. In addition, ABCB1 2677G > T/A polymorphism can explain the substantial inter-individual variability in the absorption of gabapentin.

Dose-responses for mortality from cerebrovascular and heart diseases in atomic bomb survivors: 1950-2003.

PubMed

Schöllnberger, Helmut; Eidemüller, Markus; Cullings, Harry M; Simonetto, Cristoforo; Neff, Frauke; Kaiser, Jan Christian

2018-03-01

The scientific community faces important discussions on the validity of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model for radiation-associated cardiovascular diseases at low and moderate doses. In the present study, mortalities from cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) and heart diseases from the latest data on atomic bomb survivors were analyzed. The analysis was performed with several radio-biologically motivated linear and nonlinear dose-response models. For each detrimental health outcome one set of models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. This set was used for multi-model inference (MMI), a statistical method of superposing different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose-response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. MMI provides a more accurate determination of the dose response and a more comprehensive characterization of uncertainties. It was found that for CeVD, the dose-response curve from MMI is located below the linear no-threshold model at low and medium doses (0-1.4 Gy). At higher doses MMI predicts a higher risk compared to the LNT model. A sublinear dose-response was also found for heart diseases (0-3 Gy). The analyses provide no conclusive answer to the question whether there is a radiation risk below 0.75 Gy for CeVD and 2.6 Gy for heart diseases. MMI suggests that the dose-response curves for CeVD and heart diseases in the Lifespan Study are sublinear at low and moderate doses. This has relevance for radiotherapy treatment planning and for international radiation protection practices in general.

Deterministic absorbed dose estimation in computed tomography using a discrete ordinates method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norris, Edward T.; Liu, Xin, E-mail: xinliu@mst.edu; Hsieh, Jiang

Purpose: Organ dose estimation for a patient undergoing computed tomography (CT) scanning is very important. Although Monte Carlo methods are considered gold-standard in patient dose estimation, the computation time required is formidable for routine clinical calculations. Here, the authors instigate a deterministic method for estimating an absorbed dose more efficiently. Methods: Compared with current Monte Carlo methods, a more efficient approach to estimating the absorbed dose is to solve the linear Boltzmann equation numerically. In this study, an axial CT scan was modeled with a software package, Denovo, which solved the linear Boltzmann equation using the discrete ordinates method. Themore » CT scanning configuration included 16 x-ray source positions, beam collimators, flat filters, and bowtie filters. The phantom was the standard 32 cm CT dose index (CTDI) phantom. Four different Denovo simulations were performed with different simulation parameters, including the number of quadrature sets and the order of Legendre polynomial expansions. A Monte Carlo simulation was also performed for benchmarking the Denovo simulations. A quantitative comparison was made of the simulation results obtained by the Denovo and the Monte Carlo methods. Results: The difference in the simulation results of the discrete ordinates method and those of the Monte Carlo methods was found to be small, with a root-mean-square difference of around 2.4%. It was found that the discrete ordinates method, with a higher order of Legendre polynomial expansions, underestimated the absorbed dose near the center of the phantom (i.e., low dose region). Simulations of the quadrature set 8 and the first order of the Legendre polynomial expansions proved to be the most efficient computation method in the authors’ study. The single-thread computation time of the deterministic simulation of the quadrature set 8 and the first order of the Legendre polynomial expansions was 21 min on a personal computer. Conclusions: The simulation results showed that the deterministic method can be effectively used to estimate the absorbed dose in a CTDI phantom. The accuracy of the discrete ordinates method was close to that of a Monte Carlo simulation, and the primary benefit of the discrete ordinates method lies in its rapid computation speed. It is expected that further optimization of this method in routine clinical CT dose estimation will improve its accuracy and speed.« less

Evaluation of Aztreonam Dosing Regimens in Patients With Normal and Impaired Renal Function: A Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Hongmei; Zhou, Wangda; Zhou, Diansong; Li, Jianguo; Al-Huniti, Nidal

2017-03-01

Aztreonam is a monocyclic β-lactam antibiotic often used to treat infections caused by Enterobacteriaceae or Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Despite the long history of clinical use, population pharmacokinetic modeling of aztreonam in renally impaired patients is not yet available. The aims of this study were to assess the impact of renal impairment on aztreonam exposure and to evaluate dosing regimens for patients with renal impairment. A population model describing aztreonam pharmacokinetics following intravenous administration was developed using plasma concentrations from 42 healthy volunteers and renally impaired patients from 2 clinical studies. The final pharmacokinetic model was used to predict aztreonam plasma concentrations and evaluate the probability of pharmacodynamic target attainment (PTA) in patients with different levels of renal function. A 2-compartment model with first-order elimination adequately described aztreonam pharmacokinetics. The population mean estimates of aztreonam clearance, intercompartmental clearance, volume of distribution of the central compartment, and volume of distribution of the peripheral compartment were 4.93 L/h, 9.26 L/h, 7.43 L, and 6.44 L, respectively. Creatinine clearance and body weight were the most significant variables to explain patient variability in aztreonam clearance and volume of distribution, respectively. Simulations using the final pharmacokinetic model resulted in a clinical susceptibility break point of 4 and 8 mg/L, respectively, based on the clinical use of 1- and 2-g loading doses with the same or reduced maintenance dose every 8 hours for various renal deficiency patients. The population pharmacokinetic modeling and PTA estimation support adequate PTAs (>90% PTA) from the aztreonam label for dose adjustment of aztreonam in patients with moderate and severe renal impairment. © 2016, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Reliability of equivalent sphere model in blood-forming organ dose estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, Judy L.; Wilson, John W.; Nealy, John E.

1990-01-01

The radiation dose equivalents to blood-forming organs (BFO's) of the astronauts at the Martian surface due to major solar flare events are calculated using the detailed body geometry of Langley and Billings. The solar flare spectra of February 1956, November 1960, and August 1972 events are employed instead of the idealized Webber form. The detailed geometry results are compared with those based on the 5-cm sphere model which was used often in the past to approximate BFO dose or dose equivalent. Larger discrepancies are found for the later two events possibly due to the lower numbers of highly penetrating protons. It is concluded that the 5-cm sphere model is not suitable for quantitative use in connection with future NASA deep-space, long-duration mission shield design studies.

Determination of spatial dose distribution in UCC treatments with LDR brachytherapy using Monte Carlo methods.

PubMed

Benites-Rengifo, Jorge Luis; Vega-Carrillo, Hector Rene

2018-05-19

Using Monte Carlos methods, with the MCNP5 code, a gynecological phantom and a vaginal cylinder were modeled. The spatial distribution of absorbed dose rates in Uterine Cervical Cancer treatment through low dose rate brachytherapy was determined. A liquid water gynecology computational phantom, including a vaginal cylinder applicator made of Lucite, was designed. The applicator has a linear array of four radioactive sources of Cesium 137. Around the vaginal cylinder, 13 water spherical cells of 0.5 cm-diameter were modeled to calculate absorbed dose emulating the procedure made by the treatment planning system. The gamma-ray fluence distribution was estimated, as well as the absorbed doses resulting approximately symmetrical for cells located at upper and lower of vaginal cylinder. Obtained results allow the use of the radioactive decay law to determine dose rate for Uterine Cervical Cancer using low dose rate brachytherapy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a pharmacogenetic-guided warfarin dosing algorithm for Puerto Rican patients.

PubMed

Ramos, Alga S; Seip, Richard L; Rivera-Miranda, Giselle; Felici-Giovanini, Marcos E; Garcia-Berdecia, Rafael; Alejandro-Cowan, Yirelia; Kocherla, Mohan; Cruz, Iadelisse; Feliu, Juan F; Cadilla, Carmen L; Renta, Jessica Y; Gorowski, Krystyna; Vergara, Cunegundo; Ruaño, Gualberto; Duconge, Jorge

2012-12-01

This study was aimed at developing a pharmacogenetic-driven warfarin-dosing algorithm in 163 admixed Puerto Rican patients on stable warfarin therapy. A multiple linear-regression analysis was performed using log-transformed effective warfarin dose as the dependent variable, and combining CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotyping with other relevant nongenetic clinical and demographic factors as independent predictors. The model explained more than two-thirds of the observed variance in the warfarin dose among Puerto Ricans, and also produced significantly better 'ideal dose' estimates than two pharmacogenetic models and clinical algorithms published previously, with the greatest benefit seen in patients ultimately requiring <7 mg/day. We also assessed the clinical validity of the model using an independent validation cohort of 55 Puerto Rican patients from Hartford, CT, USA (R(2) = 51%). Our findings provide the basis for planning prospective pharmacogenetic studies to demonstrate the clinical utility of genotyping warfarin-treated Puerto Rican patients.

A generic biokinetic model for noble gases with application to radon.

PubMed

Leggett, Rich; Marsh, James; Gregoratto, Demetrio; Blanchardon, Eric

2013-06-01

To facilitate the estimation of radiation doses from intake of radionuclides, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) publishes dose coefficients (dose per unit intake) based on reference biokinetic and dosimetric models. The ICRP generally has not provided biokinetic models or dose coefficients for intake of noble gases, but plans to provide such information for (222)Rn and other important radioisotopes of noble gases in a forthcoming series of reports on occupational intake of radionuclides (OIR). This paper proposes a generic biokinetic model framework for noble gases and develops parameter values for radon. The framework is tailored to applications in radiation protection and is consistent with a physiologically based biokinetic modelling scheme adopted for the OIR series. Parameter values for a noble gas are based largely on a blood flow model and physical laws governing transfer of a non-reactive and soluble gas between materials. Model predictions for radon are shown to be consistent with results of controlled studies of its biokinetics in human subjects.

Estimation of relative biological effectiveness for boron neutron capture therapy using the PHITS code coupled with a microdosimetric kinetic model.

PubMed

Horiguchi, Hironori; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kumada, Hiroaki; Yamamoto, Tetsuya; Sakae, Takeji

2015-03-01

The absorbed doses deposited by boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) can be categorized into four components: α and (7)Li particles from the (10)B(n, α)(7)Li reaction, 0.54-MeV protons from the (14)N(n, p)(14)C reaction, the recoiled protons from the (1)H(n, n) (1)H reaction, and photons from the neutron beam and (1)H(n, γ)(2)H reaction. For evaluating the irradiation effect in tumors and the surrounding normal tissues in BNCT, it is of great importance to estimate the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for each dose component in the same framework. We have, therefore, established a new method for estimating the RBE of all BNCT dose components on the basis of the microdosimetric kinetic model. This method employs the probability density of lineal energy, y, in a subcellular structure as the index for expressing RBE, which can be calculated using the microdosimetric function implemented in the particle transport simulation code (PHITS). The accuracy of this method was tested by comparing the calculated RBE values with corresponding measured data in a water phantom irradiated with an epithermal neutron beam. The calculation technique developed in this study will be useful for biological dose estimation in treatment planning for BNCT. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

Estimating adolescent sleep need using dose-response modeling.

PubMed

Short, Michelle A; Weber, Nathan; Reynolds, Chelsea; Coussens, Scott; Carskadon, Mary A

2018-04-01

This study will (1) estimate the nightly sleep need of human adolescents, (2) determine the time course and severity of sleep-related deficits when sleep is reduced below this optimal quantity, and (3) determine whether sleep restriction perturbs the circadian system as well as the sleep homeostat. Thirty-four adolescents aged 15 to 17 years spent 10 days and nine nights in the sleep laboratory. Between two baseline nights and two recovery nights with 10 hours' time in bed (TIB) per night, participants experienced either severe sleep restriction (5-hour TIB), moderate sleep restriction (7.5-hour TIB), or no sleep restriction (10-hour TIB) for five nights. A 10-minute psychomotor vigilance task (PVT; lapse = response after 500 ms) and the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale were administered every 3 hours during wake. Salivary dim-light melatonin onset was calculated at baseline and after four nights of each sleep dose to estimate circadian phase. Dose-dependent deficits to sleep duration, circadian phase timing, lapses of attention, and subjective sleepiness occurred. Less TIB resulted in less sleep, more lapses of attention, greater subjective sleepiness, and larger circadian phase delays. Sleep need estimated from 10-hour TIB sleep opportunities was approximately 9 hours, while modeling PVT lapse data suggested that 9.35 hours of sleep is needed to maintain optimal sustained attention performance. Sleep restriction perturbs homeostatic and circadian systems, leading to dose-dependent deficits to sustained attention and sleepiness. Adolescents require more sleep for optimal functioning than typically obtained.

Dose-specific efficacy of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled clinical trials

PubMed Central

GRIFFITHS, U. K.; CLARK, A.; GESSNER, B.; MINERS, A.; SANDERSON, C.; SEDYANINGSIH, E. R.; MULHOLLAND, K. E.

2012-01-01

SUMMARY Global coverage of infant Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccination has increased considerably during the past decade, partly due to GAVI Alliance donations of the vaccine to low-income countries. In settings where large numbers of children receive only one or two vaccine doses rather than the recommended three doses, dose-specific efficacy estimates are needed to predict impact. The objective of this meta-analysis is to determine Hib vaccine efficacy against different clinical outcomes after receiving one, two or three doses of vaccine. Studies were eligible for inclusion if a prospective, controlled design had been used to evaluate commercially available Hib conjugate vaccines. Eight studies were included. Pooled vaccine efficacies against invasive Hib disease after one, two or three doses of vaccine were 59%, 92% and 93%, respectively. The meta-analysis provides robust estimates for use in decision-analytical models designed to predict the impact of Hib vaccine. PMID:22583474

An estimation of Canadian population exposure to cosmic rays.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Timmins, Rachel; Verdecchia, Kyle; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2009-08-01

The worldwide average exposure to cosmic rays contributes to about 16% of the annual effective dose from natural radiation sources. At ground level, doses from cosmic ray exposure depend strongly on altitude, and weakly on geographical location and solar activity. With the analytical model PARMA developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, annual effective doses due to cosmic ray exposure at ground level were calculated for more than 1,500 communities across Canada which cover more than 85% of the Canadian population. The annual effective doses from cosmic ray exposure in the year 2000 during solar maximum ranged from 0.27 to 0.72 mSv with the population-weighted national average of 0.30 mSv. For the year 2006 during solar minimum, the doses varied between 0.30 and 0.84 mSv, and the population-weighted national average was 0.33 mSv. Averaged over solar activity, the Canadian population-weighted average annual effective dose due to cosmic ray exposure at ground level is estimated to be 0.31 mSv.

Approximate distribution of dose among foetal organs for radioiodine uptake via placenta transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millard, R. K.; Saunders, M.; Palmer, A. M.; Preece, A. W.

2001-11-01

Absorbed radiation doses to internal foetal organs were calculated according to the medical internal radiation dose (MIRD) technique in this study. Anthropomorphic phantoms of the pregnant female as in MIRDOSE3 enabled estimation of absorbed dose to the whole foetus at two stages of gestation. Some foetal organ self-doses could have been estimated by invoking simple spherical models for thyroid, liver, etc, but we investigated the use of the MIRDOSE3 new-born phantom as a surrogate for the stage 3 foetus, scaled to be compatible with total foetal body mean absorbed dose/cumulated activity. We illustrate the method for obtaining approximate dose distribution in the foetus near term following intake of 1 MBq of 123I, 124I, 125I or 131I as sodium iodide by the mother using in vivo biodistribution data examples from a good model of placenta transfer. Doses to the foetal thyroid of up to 1.85 Gy MBq-1 were predicted from the 131I uptake data. Activity in the foetal thyroid was the largest contributor to absorbed dose in the foetal body, brain, heart and thymus. Average total doses to the whole foetus ranged from 0.16 to 1.2 mGy MBq-1 for stages 1 and 3 of pregnancy using the MIRDOSE3 program, and were considerably higher than those predicted from the maternal contributions alone. Doses to the foetal thymus and stomach were similar, around 2-3 mGy MBq-1. Some foetal organ doses from the radioiodides were ten times higher than to the corresponding organs of the mother, and up to 100 times higher to the thyroid. The fraction of activity uptakes in foetal organs were distributed similarly to the maternal ones.

Application of a loading dose of colistin methanesulfonate in critically ill patients: population pharmacokinetics, protein binding, and prediction of bacterial kill.

PubMed

Mohamed, Ami F; Karaiskos, Ilias; Plachouras, Diamantis; Karvanen, Matti; Pontikis, Konstantinos; Jansson, Britt; Papadomichelakis, Evangelos; Antoniadou, Anastasia; Giamarellou, Helen; Armaganidis, Apostolos; Cars, Otto; Friberg, Lena E

2012-08-01

A previous pharmacokinetic study on dosing of colistin methanesulfonate (CMS) at 240 mg (3 million units [MU]) every 8 h indicated that colistin has a long half-life, resulting in insufficient concentrations for the first 12 to 48 h after initiation of treatment. A loading dose would therefore be beneficial. The aim of this study was to evaluate CMS and colistin pharmacokinetics following a 480-mg (6-MU) loading dose in critically ill patients and to explore the bacterial kill following the use of different dosing regimens obtained by predictions from a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model developed from an in vitro study on Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The unbound fractions of colistin A and colistin B were determined using equilibrium dialysis and considered in the predictions. Ten critically ill patients (6 males; mean age, 54 years; mean creatinine clearance, 82 ml/min) with infections caused by multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria were enrolled in the study. The pharmacokinetic data collected after the first and eighth doses were analyzed simultaneously with the data from the previous study (total, 28 patients) in the NONMEM program. For CMS, a two-compartment model best described the pharmacokinetics, and the half-lives of the two phases were estimated to be 0.026 and 2.2 h, respectively. For colistin, a one-compartment model was sufficient and the estimated half-life was 18.5 h. The unbound fractions of colistin in the patients were 26 to 41% at clinical concentrations. Colistin A, but not colistin B, had a concentration-dependent binding. The predictions suggested that the time to 3-log-unit bacterial kill for a 480-mg loading dose was reduced to half of that for the dose of 240 mg.

Application of a Loading Dose of Colistin Methanesulfonate in Critically Ill Patients: Population Pharmacokinetics, Protein Binding, and Prediction of Bacterial Kill

PubMed Central

Karaiskos, Ilias; Plachouras, Diamantis; Karvanen, Matti; Pontikis, Konstantinos; Jansson, Britt; Papadomichelakis, Evangelos; Antoniadou, Anastasia; Giamarellou, Helen; Armaganidis, Apostolos; Cars, Otto; Friberg, Lena E.

2012-01-01

A previous pharmacokinetic study on dosing of colistin methanesulfonate (CMS) at 240 mg (3 million units [MU]) every 8 h indicated that colistin has a long half-life, resulting in insufficient concentrations for the first 12 to 48 h after initiation of treatment. A loading dose would therefore be beneficial. The aim of this study was to evaluate CMS and colistin pharmacokinetics following a 480-mg (6-MU) loading dose in critically ill patients and to explore the bacterial kill following the use of different dosing regimens obtained by predictions from a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model developed from an in vitro study on Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The unbound fractions of colistin A and colistin B were determined using equilibrium dialysis and considered in the predictions. Ten critically ill patients (6 males; mean age, 54 years; mean creatinine clearance, 82 ml/min) with infections caused by multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria were enrolled in the study. The pharmacokinetic data collected after the first and eighth doses were analyzed simultaneously with the data from the previous study (total, 28 patients) in the NONMEM program. For CMS, a two-compartment model best described the pharmacokinetics, and the half-lives of the two phases were estimated to be 0.026 and 2.2 h, respectively. For colistin, a one-compartment model was sufficient and the estimated half-life was 18.5 h. The unbound fractions of colistin in the patients were 26 to 41% at clinical concentrations. Colistin A, but not colistin B, had a concentration-dependent binding. The predictions suggested that the time to 3-log-unit bacterial kill for a 480-mg loading dose was reduced to half of that for the dose of 240 mg. PMID:22615285

On effective dose for radiotherapy based on doses to nontarget organs and tissues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Uselmann, Adam J., E-mail: ajuselmann@wisc.edu; Thomadsen, Bruce R.

2015-02-15

Purpose: The National Council for Radiation Protection and Measurement (NCRP) published estimates for the collective population dose and the mean effective dose to the population of the United States from medical imaging procedures for 1980/1982 and for 2006. The earlier report ignored the effective dose from radiotherapy and the latter gave a cursory discussion of the topic but again did not include it in the population exposure for various reasons. This paper explains the methodology used to calculate the effective dose in due to radiotherapy procedures in the latter NCRP report and revises the values based on more detailed modeling.more » Methods: This study calculated the dose to nontarget organs from radiotherapy for reference populations using CT images and published peripheral dose data. Results: Using International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 60 weighting factors, the total effective dose to nontarget organs in radiotherapy patients is estimated as 298 ± 194 mSv per patient, while the U.S. population effective dose is 0.939 ± 0.610 mSv per person, with a collective dose of 283 000 ± 184 000 person Sv per year. Using ICRP 103 weighting factors, the effective dose is 281 ± 183 mSv per patient, 0.887 ± 0.577 mSv per person in the U.S., and 268 000 ± 174 000 person Sv per year. The uncertainty in the calculations is largely governed by variations in patient size, which was accounted for by considering a range of patient sizes and taking the average treatment site to nontarget organ distance. Conclusions: The methods used to estimate the effective doses from radiotherapy used in NCRP Report No. 160 have been explained and the values updated.« less

The feasibility of a scanner-independent technique to estimate organ dose from MDCT scans: Using CTDI{sub vol} to account for differences between scanners

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Adam C.; Zankl, Maria; DeMarco, John J.

2010-04-15

Purpose: Monte Carlo radiation transport techniques have made it possible to accurately estimate the radiation dose to radiosensitive organs in patient models from scans performed with modern multidetector row computed tomography (MDCT) scanners. However, there is considerable variation in organ doses across scanners, even when similar acquisition conditions are used. The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a technique to estimate organ doses that would be scanner independent. This was accomplished by assessing the ability of CTDI{sub vol} measurements to account for differences in MDCT scanners that lead to organ dose differences. Methods: Monte Carlo simulationsmore » of 64-slice MDCT scanners from each of the four major manufacturers were performed. An adult female patient model from the GSF family of voxelized phantoms was used in which all ICRP Publication 103 radiosensitive organs were identified. A 120 kVp, full-body helical scan with a pitch of 1 was simulated for each scanner using similar scan protocols across scanners. From each simulated scan, the radiation dose to each organ was obtained on a per mA s basis (mGy/mA s). In addition, CTDI{sub vol} values were obtained from each scanner for the selected scan parameters. Then, to demonstrate the feasibility of generating organ dose estimates from scanner-independent coefficients, the simulated organ dose values resulting from each scanner were normalized by the CTDI{sub vol} value for those acquisition conditions. Results: CTDI{sub vol} values across scanners showed considerable variation as the coefficient of variation (CoV) across scanners was 34.1%. The simulated patient scans also demonstrated considerable differences in organ dose values, which varied by up to a factor of approximately 2 between some of the scanners. The CoV across scanners for the simulated organ doses ranged from 26.7% (for the adrenals) to 37.7% (for the thyroid), with a mean CoV of 31.5% across all organs. However, when organ doses are normalized by CTDI{sub vol} values, the differences across scanners become very small. For the CTDI{sub vol}, normalized dose values the CoVs across scanners for different organs ranged from a minimum of 2.4% (for skin tissue) to a maximum of 8.5% (for the adrenals) with a mean of 5.2%. Conclusions: This work has revealed that there is considerable variation among modern MDCT scanners in both CTDI{sub vol} and organ dose values. Because these variations are similar, CTDI{sub vol} can be used as a normalization factor with excellent results. This demonstrates the feasibility of establishing scanner-independent organ dose estimates by using CTDI{sub vol} to account for the differences between scanners.« less

Human salmonellosis: estimation of dose-illness from outbreak data.

PubMed

Bollaerts, Kaatje; Aerts, Marc; Faes, Christel; Grijspeerdt, Koen; Dewulf, Jeroen; Mintiens, Koen

2008-04-01

The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al. Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population.

Characterization and pathogenesis of aerosolized eastern equine encephalitis in the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus).

PubMed

Porter, Aimee I; Erwin-Cohen, Rebecca A; Twenhafel, Nancy; Chance, Taylor; Yee, Steven B; Kern, Steven J; Norwood, David; Hartman, Laurie J; Parker, Michael D; Glass, Pamela J; DaSilva, Luis

2017-02-07

Licensed antiviral therapeutics and vaccines to protect against eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) in humans currently do not exist. Animal models that faithfully recapitulate the clinical characteristics of human EEEV encephalitic disease, including fever, drowsiness, anorexia, and neurological signs such as seizures, are needed to satisfy requirements of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for clinical product licensing under the Animal Rule. In an effort to meet this requirement, we estimated the median lethal dose and described the pathogenesis of aerosolized EEEV in the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus). Five marmosets were exposed to aerosolized EEEV FL93-939 in doses ranging from 2.4 × 10 1 PFU to 7.95 × 10 5 PFU. The median lethal dose was estimated to be 2.05 × 10 2 PFU. Lethality was observed as early as day 4 post-exposure in the highest-dosed marmoset but animals at lower inhaled doses had a protracted disease course where humane study endpoint was not met until as late as day 19 post-exposure. Clinical signs were observed as early as 3 to 4 days post-exposure, including fever, ruffled fur, decreased grooming, and leukocytosis. Clinical signs increased in severity as disease progressed to include decreased body weight, subdued behavior, tremors, and lack of balance. Fever was observed as early as day 2-3 post-exposure in the highest dose groups and hypothermia was observed in several cases as animals became moribund. Infectious virus was found in several key tissues, including brain, liver, kidney, and several lymph nodes. Clinical hematology results included early neutrophilia, lymphopenia, and thrombocytopenia. Key pathological changes included meningoencephalitis and retinitis. Immunohistochemical staining for viral antigen was positive in the brain, retina, and lymph nodes. More intense and widespread IHC labeling occurred with increased aerosol dose. We have estimated the medial lethal dose of aerosolized EEEV and described the pathology of clinical disease in the marmoset model. The results demonstrate that the marmoset is an animal model suitable for emulation of human EEEV disease in the development of medical countermeasures.

Dynamically accumulated dose and 4D accumulated dose for moving tumors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Heng; Li Yupeng; Zhang Xiaodong

2012-12-15

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between dynamically accumulated dose (dynamic dose) and 4D accumulated dose (4D dose) for irradiation of moving tumors, and to quantify the dose uncertainty induced by tumor motion. Methods: The authors established that regardless of treatment modality and delivery properties, the dynamic dose will converge to the 4D dose, instead of the 3D static dose, after multiple deliveries. The bounds of dynamic dose, or the maximum estimation error using 4D or static dose, were established for the 4D and static doses, respectively. Numerical simulations were performed (1) to prove themore » principle that for each phase, after multiple deliveries, the average number of deliveries for any given time converges to the total number of fractions (K) over the number of phases (N); (2) to investigate the dose difference between the 4D and dynamic doses as a function of the number of deliveries for deliveries of a 'pulsed beam'; and (3) to investigate the dose difference between 4D dose and dynamic doses as a function of delivery time for deliveries of a 'continuous beam.' A Poisson model was developed to estimate the mean dose error as a function of number of deliveries or delivered time for both pulsed beam and continuous beam. Results: The numerical simulations confirmed that the number of deliveries for each phase converges to K/N, assuming a random starting phase. Simulations for the pulsed beam and continuous beam also suggested that the dose error is a strong function of the number of deliveries and/or total deliver time and could be a function of the breathing cycle, depending on the mode of delivery. The Poisson model agrees well with the simulation. Conclusions: Dynamically accumulated dose will converge to the 4D accumulated dose after multiple deliveries, regardless of treatment modality. Bounds of the dynamic dose could be determined using quantities derived from 4D doses, and the mean dose difference between the dynamic dose and 4D dose as a function of number of deliveries and/or total deliver time was also established.« less

Monitoring of thermal dose during ablation therapy using quantum dot-mediated fluorescence thermometry.

PubMed

Bensalah, Karim; Tuncel, Altug; Hanson, Willard; Stern, Joshua; Han, Bumsoo; Cadeddu, Jeffrey

2010-12-01

The objective of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of quantum dot (QD)-mediated fluorescence thermometry to monitor thermal dose in an in-vitro thermal ablation zone generated by laser-heated gold nanoshells (LGNS). Hyperthermic cell death of human prostate cancer cell line (PC-3) was determined after various heating settings and correlated to the thermal conditions using an Arrhenius model prior to LGNS ablation. PC-3 cells with gold nanoshells (GNS) and QDs were exposed to a near-infrared laser and QD excitation light. When the cells were heated by GNS, local temperature was measured using the temperature-dependent fluorescence intensity of QDs. Using the predetermined Arrhenius model, the thermal dose (i.e., cell death of PC-3 cells) by LGNS was estimated with local temperatures measured with QD-mediated thermometry. The estimated thermal dose was confirmed with calcein-acetoxy-methylester viability assay. For PC-3 cell line, the activation energy and frequency factor of the Arrhenius model were 86.78 kcal/mol and 6.35 × 10(55) Hz, respectively. During LGNS ablation of PC-3 cells, QD-mediated temperature measurement showed that the temperature of the laser spot increased rapidly to ∼58 °C ± 4 °C. The estimated thermal dose showed that cell death reached to ∼90% in 120 seconds. The death cell zone observed after staining corresponded to a peak area of the temperature profile generated after analysis of the QD fluorescence intensity. This study shows that the QD fluorescence thermometry can accurately monitor the PC-3 cell death by LGNS ablation. This approach holds promises for a better monitoring of thermal ablation procedures in clinical practice.

The conversion of exposures due to radon into the effective dose: the epidemiological approach.

PubMed

Beck, T R

2017-11-01

The risks and dose conversion coefficients for residential and occupational exposures due to radon were determined with applying the epidemiological risk models to ICRP representative populations. The dose conversion coefficient for residential radon was estimated with a value of 1.6 mSv year -1 per 100 Bq m -3 (3.6 mSv per WLM), which is significantly lower than the corresponding value derived from the biokinetic and dosimetric models. The dose conversion coefficient for occupational exposures with applying the risk models for miners was estimated with a value of 14 mSv per WLM, which is in good accordance with the results of the dosimetric models. To resolve the discrepancy regarding residential radon, the ICRP approaches for the determination of risks and doses were reviewed. It could be shown that ICRP overestimates the risk for lung cancer caused by residential radon. This can be attributed to a wrong population weighting of the radon-induced risks in its epidemiological approach. With the approach in this work, the average risks for lung cancer were determined, taking into account the age-specific risk contributions of all individuals in the population. As a result, a lower risk coefficient for residential radon was obtained. The results from the ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models for both, the occupationally exposed working age population and the whole population exposed to residential radon, can be brought in better accordance with the corresponding results of the epidemiological approach, if the respective relative radiation detriments and a radiation-weighting factor for alpha particles of about ten are used.

Model-based meta-analysis to evaluate optimal doses of direct oral factor Xa inhibitors in atrial fibrillation patients

PubMed Central

Yoshioka, Hideki; Sato, Hiromi; Hatakeyama, Hiroto

2018-01-01

The noninferiority of direct oral factor Xa (FXa) inhibitors (rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban) in treatment of atrial fibrillation were demonstrated compared with warfarin by several large clinical trials; however, subsequent meta-analyses reported a higher risk of major bleeding with rivaroxaban than with the other FXa inhibitors. In the present study, we first estimated the changes of prothrombin time (PT) in 5 randomized trials based on reported population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models and then carried out a model-based meta-analysis to obtain models describing the relationship between PT changes and the event rates of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and of major bleeding. By using the models, we simulated the optimal therapeutic doses for each FXa inhibitor. It was suggested that dose reduction of rivaroxaban from the current 20 mg/d to 10 mg/d would decrease patient deaths from major bleeding (hazard ratio [HR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.74) with little increase in those for ischemic stroke/SE (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.20). The overall decrease in the mortality caused by both events was estimated as 5.81 per 10 000 patient-years (95% CI, 3.92-8.16), with an HR of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91). For apixaban and edoxaban, no distinct change in the overall mortality was simulated by dose modification. This study suggested that the current dose of rivaroxaban might be excessive and would need to be reduced to decrease the excess risk of major bleeding. PMID:29760204

Current modeling practice may lead to falsely high benchmark dose estimates.

PubMed

Ringblom, Joakim; Johanson, Gunnar; Öberg, Mattias

2014-07-01

Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is increasingly used as the preferred approach to define the point-of-departure for health risk assessment of chemicals. As data are inherently variable, there is always a risk to select a model that defines a lower confidence bound of the BMD (BMDL) that, contrary to expected, exceeds the true BMD. The aim of this study was to investigate how often and under what circumstances such anomalies occur under current modeling practice. Continuous data were generated from a realistic dose-effect curve by Monte Carlo simulations using four dose groups and a set of five different dose placement scenarios, group sizes between 5 and 50 animals and coefficients of variations of 5-15%. The BMD calculations were conducted using nested exponential models, as most BMD software use nested approaches. "Non-protective" BMDLs (higher than true BMD) were frequently observed, in some scenarios reaching 80%. The phenomenon was mainly related to the selection of the non-sigmoidal exponential model (Effect=a·e(b)(·dose)). In conclusion, non-sigmoid models should be used with caution as it may underestimate the risk, illustrating that awareness of the model selection process and sound identification of the point-of-departure is vital for health risk assessment. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ALGORITHMS FOR ESTIMATING RESTING METABOLIC RATE AND ACTIVITY SPECIFIC VENTILATION RATES FOR USE IN COMPLEX EXPOSURE AND INTAKE DOSE MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

This work summarizes advancements made that allow for better estimation of resting metabolic rate (RMR) and subsequent estimation of ventilation rates (i.e., total ventilation (V_E) and alveolar ventilation (V_A)) for individuals of both genders and all ages. ...

A Review of the “Bolus Guide,” A New Insulin Bolus Dosing Support Tool Based on Selection of Carbohydrate Ranges

PubMed Central

Pańkowska, Ewa

2010-01-01

In this issue of Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology, Shapira and colleagues present new concepts of carbohydrate load estimation in intensive insulin therapy. By using a mathematical model, they attempt to establish how accurately carbohydrate food content should be maintained in order to keep postprandial blood glucose levels in the recommended range. Their mathematical formula, the “bolus guide” (BG), is verified by simulating prandial insulin dosing and responding to proper blood glucose levels. Different variants such as insulin sensitivity factor, insulin-to-carbohydrate ratio, and target blood glucose were taken into this formula in establishing the calculated proper insulin dose. The new approach presented here estimates the carbohydrate content by rearranging the carbohydrate load instead of the simple point estimation that the current bolus calculators (BCs) use. Computerized estimations show that the BG directives, as compared to a BC, result in more glucose levels above 200 mg/dl and thus indicate less hypoglycemia readings. PMID:20663454

Plutonium release from the 903 pad at Rocky Flats.

PubMed

Mongan, T R; Ripple, S R; Winges, K D

1996-10-01

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDH) sponsored a study to reconstruct contaminant doses to the public from operations at the Rocky Flats nuclear weapons plant. This analysis of the accidental release of plutonium from the area known as the 903 Pad is part of the CDH study. In the 1950's and 1960's, 55-gallon drums of waste oil contaminated with plutonium, and uranium were stored outdoors at the 903 Pad. The drums corroded, leaking contaminated oil onto soil subsequently carried off-site by the wind. The plutonium release is estimated using environmental data from the 1960's and 1970's and an atmospheric transport model for fugitive dust. The best estimate of total plutonium release to areas beyond plant-owned property is about 0.26 TBq (7 Ci). Off-site airborne concentrations and deposition of plutonium are estimated for dose calculation purposes. The best estimate of the highest predicted off-site effective dose is approximately 72 microSv (7.2 mrem).

Numerical Analysis of Organ Doses Delivered During Computed Tomography Examinations Using Japanese Adult Phantoms with the WAZA-ARI Dosimetry System.

PubMed

Takahashi, Fumiaki; Sato, Kaoru; Endo, Akira; Ono, Koji; Ban, Nobuhiko; Hasegawa, Takayuki; Katsunuma, Yasushi; Yoshitake, Takayasu; Kai, Michiaki

2015-08-01

A dosimetry system for computed tomography (CT) examinations, named WAZA-ARI, is being developed to accurately assess radiation doses to patients in Japan. For dose calculations in WAZA-ARI, organ doses were numerically analyzed using average adult Japanese male (JM) and female (JF) phantoms with the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS). Experimental studies clarified the photon energy distribution of emitted photons and dose profiles on the table for some multi-detector row CT (MDCT) devices. Numerical analyses using a source model in PHITS could specifically take into account emissions of x rays from the tube to the table with attenuation of photons through a beam-shaping filter for each MDCT device based on the experiment results. The source model was validated by measuring the CT dose index (CTDI). Numerical analyses with PHITS revealed a concordance of organ doses with body sizes of the JM and JF phantoms. The organ doses in the JM phantoms were compared with data obtained using previously developed systems. In addition, the dose calculations in WAZA-ARI were verified with previously reported results by realistic NUBAS phantoms and radiation dose measurement using a physical Japanese model (THRA1 phantom). The results imply that numerical analyses using the Japanese phantoms and specified source models can give reasonable estimates of dose for MDCT devices for typical Japanese adults.

External dose reconstruction for the former village of Metlino (Techa River, Russia) based on environmental surveys, luminescence measurements, and radiation transport modelling.

PubMed

Hiller, M M; Woda, C; Bougrov, N G; Degteva, M O; Ivanov, O; Ulanovsky, A; Romanov, S

2017-05-01

In the first years of its operation, the Mayak Production Association, a facility part of the Soviet nuclear weapons program in the Southern Urals, Russia, discharged large amounts of radioactively contaminated effluent into the nearby Techa River, thus exposing the people living at this river to external and internal radiations. The Techa River Cohort is a cohort intensely studied in epidemiology to investigate the correlation between low-dose radiation and health effects on humans. For the individuals in the cohort, the Techa River Dosimetry System describes the accumulated dose in human organs and tissues. In particular, organ doses from external exposure are derived from estimates of dose rate in air on the Techa River banks which were estimated from measurements and Monte Carlo modelling. Individual doses are calculated in accordance with historical records of individuals' residence histories, observational data of typical lifestyles for different age groups, and age-dependent conversion factors from air kerma to organ dose. The work here describes an experimentally independent assessment of the key input parameter of the dosimetry system, the integral air kerma, for the former village of Metlino, upper Techa River region. The aim of this work was thus to validate the Techa River Dosimetry System for the location of Metlino in an independent approach. Dose reconstruction based on dose measurements in bricks from a church tower and Monte Carlo calculations was used to model the historic air kerma accumulated in the time from 1949 to 1956 at the shoreline of the Techa River in Metlino. Main issues are caused by a change in the landscape after the evacuation of the village in 1956. Based on measurements and published information and data, two separate models for the historic pre-evacuation geometry and for the current geometry of Metlino were created. Using both models, a value for the air kerma was reconstructed, which agrees with that obtained in the Techa River Dosimetry System within a factor of two.

COMPREHENSIVE PBPK MODELING APPROACH USING THE EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL (ERDEM)

EPA Science Inventory

ERDEM, a complex PBPK modeling system, is the result of the implementation of a comprehensive PBPK modeling approach. ERDEM provides a scalable and user-friendly environment that enables researchers to focus on data input values rather than writing program code. It efficiently ...

Effect of Age at Vaccination on Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness in Bolivian Infants.

PubMed

Burke, Rachel M; Tate, Jacqueline E; Pringle, Kimberly D; Patel, Manish; De Oliveira, Lucia H; Parashar, Umesh D

2018-01-16

Rotavirus vaccines are less effective in developing countries versus developed countries. One hypothesis for this difference in performance is that higher levels of maternal antibodies in developing countries may interfere with vaccine response, suggesting that delayed dosing could be beneficial. The present analysis aims to assess whether rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by age at vaccination during routine use in Bolivia. Data were merged from two post-licensure evaluations of monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) in Bolivia, where two doses of RV1 are recommended at two and four months of age. For each dose, children were classified as receiving each dose "early," "on-time," or "late." Stratified unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate VE, using unvaccinated children as the referent. VE was calculated as (1 - odds ratio) x 100%. Models were adjusted for hospital, age, and time since RV1 introduction (via including terms for month and year of birth). VE for two doses of RV1 tended to be higher in infants receiving the first dose early (VE 92%; 95% confidence interval [CI] [70%, 98%]), when compared to infants receiving their first dose on time (72% [62%, 81%]) or late (68% [51%, 79%]). Estimates of VE were not substantially different when comparing children by age at second dose (early: VE 76% [50%, 89%]; on time: VE 70% [50%, 89%]; late: VE 75% [60%, 84%]), including all children. Our results indicate that early administration may improve VE and support the current WHO recommendations for the RV1 schedule.

ZEPrompt: An Algorithm for Rapid Estimation of Building Attenuation for Prompt Radiation from a Nuclear Detonation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

and 50 kT, to within 30% of first-principles code ( MCNP ) for complicated cities and 10% for simpler cities. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Radiation Transport...Use of MCNP for Dose Calculations .................................................................... 3 2.3 MCNP Open-Field Absorbed Dose...Calculations .................................................. 4 2.4 The MCNP Urban Model

MOVING FROM EXTERNAL EXPOSURE CONCENTRATION TO INTERNAL DOSE: DURATION EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC-MODEL DERIVED ESTIMATES OF INTERNAL DOSE

EPA Science Inventory

The potential human health risk(s) from exposure to chemicals under conditions for which adequate human or animal data are not available must frequently be assessed. Exposure scenario is particularly important for the acute neurotoxic effects of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)...

External dose assessment in the Ukraine following the Chernobyl accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Remi Jordan Lesartre

While the physiological effects of radiation exposure have been well characterized in general, it remains unclear what the relationship is between large-scale radiological events and psychosocial behavior outcomes in individuals or populations. To investigate this, the National Science Foundation funded a research project in 2008 at the University of Colorado in collaboration with Colorado State University to expand the knowledge of complex interactions between radiation exposure, perception of risk, and psychosocial behavior outcomes by modeling outcomes for a representative sample of the population of the Ukraine which had been exposed to radiocontaminant materials released by the reactor accident at Chernobyl on 26 April 1986. In service of this project, a methodology (based substantially on previously published models specific to the Chernobyl disaster and the Ukrainian population) was developed for daily cumulative effective external dose and dose rate assessment for individuals in the Ukraine for as a result of the Chernobyl disaster. A software platform was designed and produced to estimate effective external dose and dose rate for individuals based on their age, occupation, and location of residence on each day between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 2009. A methodology was developed to transform published 137Cs soil deposition contour maps from the Comprehensive Atlas of Caesium Deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl Accident into a geospatial database to access these data as a radiological source term. Cumulative effective external dose and dose rate were computed for each individual in a 703-member cohort of Ukrainians randomly selected to be representative of the population of the country as a whole. Error was estimated for the resulting individual dose and dose rate values with Monte Carlo simulations. Distributions of input parameters for the dose assessment methodology were compared to computed dose and dose rate estimates to determine which parameters were driving the computed results. The mean external effective dose for all individuals in the cohort due to exposure to radiocontamination from the Chernobyl accident between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 2009 was found to be 1.2 mSv; the geometric mean was 0.84 mSv with a geometric standard deviation of 2.1. The mean value is well below the mean external effective dose expected due to typical background radiation (which in the United States over this time period would be 12.0 mSv). Sensitivity analysis suggests that the greatest driver of the distribution of individual dose estimates is lack of specific information about the daily behavior of each individual, specifically the portion of time each individual spent indoors (and shielded from radionuclides deposited on the soil) versus outdoors (and unshielded).

Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation: bootstrap and simulation methods

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommended annual occupational dose limit is 20 mSv. Cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation in 1945 was analysed previously, using a latency model with non-linear dose response. Questions were raised regarding statistical inference with this model. Methods Cancers with over 100 deaths in the 0 - 20 mSv subcohort of the 1950-1990 Life Span Study are analysed with Poisson regression models incorporating latency, allowing linear and non-linear dose response. Bootstrap percentile and Bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) methods and simulation of the Likelihood Ratio Test lead to Confidence Intervals for Excess Relative Risk (ERR) and tests against the linear model. Results The linear model shows significant large, positive values of ERR for liver and urinary cancers at latencies from 37 - 43 years. Dose response below 20 mSv is strongly non-linear at the optimal latencies for the stomach (11.89 years), liver (36.9), lung (13.6), leukaemia (23.66), and pancreas (11.86) and across broad latency ranges. Confidence Intervals for ERR are comparable using Bootstrap and Likelihood Ratio Test methods and BCa 95% Confidence Intervals are strictly positive across latency ranges for all 5 cancers. Similar risk estimates for 10 mSv (lagged dose) are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv data for the stomach, liver, lung and leukaemia. Dose response for the latter 3 cancers is significantly non-linear in the 5 - 500 mSv range. Conclusion Liver and urinary cancer mortality risk is significantly raised using a latency model with linear dose response. A non-linear model is strongly superior for the stomach, liver, lung, pancreas and leukaemia. Bootstrap and Likelihood-based confidence intervals are broadly comparable and ERR is strictly positive by bootstrap methods for all 5 cancers. Except for the pancreas, similar estimates of latency and risk from 10 mSv are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv subcohorts. Large and significant cancer risks for Japanese survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation from the atomic bombs in 1945 cast doubt on the ICRP recommended annual occupational dose limit. PMID:20003238

Animal and human dose-response models for Brucella species.

PubMed

Teske, Sondra S; Huang, Yin; Tamrakar, Sushil B; Bartrand, Timothy A; Weir, Mark H; Haas, Charles N

2011-10-01

Human Brucellosis is one of the most common zoonotic diseases worldwide. Disease transmission often occurs through the handling of domestic livestock, as well as ingestion of unpasteurized milk and cheese, but can have enhanced infectivity if aerosolized. Because there is no human vaccine available, rising concerns about the threat of Brucellosis to human health and its inclusion in the Center for Disease Control's Category B Bioterrorism/Select Agent List make a better understanding of the dose-response relationship of this microbe necessary. Through an extensive peer-reviewed literature search, candidate dose-response data were appraised so as to surpass certain standards for quality. The statistical programming language, "R," was used to compute the maximum likelihood estimation to fit two models, the exponential and the approximate beta-Poisson (widely used for quantitative risk assessment) to dose-response data. Dose-response models were generated for prevalent species of Brucella: Br. suis, Br. melitensis, and Br. abortus. Dose-response models were created for aerosolized Br. suis exposure to guinea pigs from pooled studies. A parallel model for guinea pigs inoculated through both aerosol and subcutaneous routes with Br. melitensis showed that the median infectious dose corresponded to a 30 colony-forming units (CFU) dose of Br. suis, much less than the N(50) dose of about 94 CFU for Br. melitensis organisms. When Br. melitensis was tested subcutaneously on mice, the N(50) dose was higher, 1,840 CFU. A dose-response model was constructed from pooled data for mice, rhesus macaques, and humans inoculated through three routes (subcutaneously/aerosol/intradermally) with Br. melitensis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Dose response explorer: an integrated open-source tool for exploring and modelling radiotherapy dose volume outcome relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Naqa, I.; Suneja, G.; Lindsay, P. E.; Hope, A. J.; Alaly, J. R.; Vicic, M.; Bradley, J. D.; Apte, A.; Deasy, J. O.

2006-11-01

Radiotherapy treatment outcome models are a complicated function of treatment, clinical and biological factors. Our objective is to provide clinicians and scientists with an accurate, flexible and user-friendly software tool to explore radiotherapy outcomes data and build statistical tumour control or normal tissue complications models. The software tool, called the dose response explorer system (DREES), is based on Matlab, and uses a named-field structure array data type. DREES/Matlab in combination with another open-source tool (CERR) provides an environment for analysing treatment outcomes. DREES provides many radiotherapy outcome modelling features, including (1) fitting of analytical normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and tumour control probability (TCP) models, (2) combined modelling of multiple dose-volume variables (e.g., mean dose, max dose, etc) and clinical factors (age, gender, stage, etc) using multi-term regression modelling, (3) manual or automated selection of logistic or actuarial model variables using bootstrap statistical resampling, (4) estimation of uncertainty in model parameters, (5) performance assessment of univariate and multivariate analyses using Spearman's rank correlation and chi-square statistics, boxplots, nomograms, Kaplan-Meier survival plots, and receiver operating characteristics curves, and (6) graphical capabilities to visualize NTCP or TCP prediction versus selected variable models using various plots. DREES provides clinical researchers with a tool customized for radiotherapy outcome modelling. DREES is freely distributed. We expect to continue developing DREES based on user feedback.

Meeting report: Estimating the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants--summary of 2009 workshop and future considerations.

PubMed

Gwinn, Maureen R; Craig, Jeneva; Axelrad, Daniel A; Cook, Rich; Dockins, Chris; Fann, Neal; Fegley, Robert; Guinnup, David E; Helfand, Gloria; Hubbell, Bryan; Mazur, Sarah L; Palma, Ted; Smith, Roy L; Vandenberg, John; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2011-01-01

Quantifying the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, or air toxics) has been limited by gaps in toxicological data, uncertainties in extrapolating results from high-dose animal experiments to estimate human effects at lower doses, limited ambient and personal exposure monitoring data, and insufficient economic research to support valuation of the health impacts often associated with exposure to individual air toxics. To address some of these issues, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency held the Workshop on Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) in Washington, DC, from 30 April to 1 May 2009. Experts from multiple disciplines discussed how best to move forward on air toxics benefits assessment, with a focus on developing near-term capability to conduct quantitative benefits assessment. Proposed methodologies involved analysis of data-rich pollutants and application of this analysis to other pollutants, using dose-response modeling of animal data for estimating benefits to humans, determining dose-equivalence relationships for different chemicals with similar health effects, and analysis similar to that used for criteria pollutants. Limitations and uncertainties in economic valuation of benefits assessment for HAPS were discussed as well. These discussions highlighted the complexities in estimating the benefits of reducing air toxics, and participants agreed that alternative methods for benefits assessment of HAPs are needed. Recommendations included clearly defining the key priorities of the Clean Air Act air toxics program to identify the most effective approaches for HAPs benefits analysis, focusing on susceptible and vulnerable populations, and improving dose-response estimation for quantification of benefits.

A projection of ozone-induced wheat production loss in China and India for the years 2000 and 2020 with exposure-based and flux-based approaches.

PubMed

Tang, Haoye; Takigawa, Masayuki; Liu, Gang; Zhu, Jianguo; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

2013-09-01

Using a high-resolution (40 × 40 km) chemical transport model coupled with the Regional Emission inventory in Asia (REAS), we simulated surface ozone concentrations ([O3 ]) and evaluated O3 -induced wheat production loss in China and India for the years 2000 and 2020 using dose-response functions based on AOT40 (accumulated [O3 ] above 40 ppb) and PODY (phytotoxic O3 dose, accumulated stomatal flux of O3 above a threshold of Y nmol m(-2) s(-1) ). Two O3 dose metrics (90 days AOT40 and POD6 ) were derived from European experiments, and the other two (75 days AOT40 and POD12 ) were adapted from Asian studies. Relative yield loss (RYL) of wheat in 2000 was estimated to be 6.4-14.9% for China and 8.2-22.3% for India. POD6 predicted greater RYL, especially for the warm regions of India, whereas the 90 days AOT40 gave the lowest estimates. For the future projection, all the O3 dose metrics gave comparable estimates of an increase in RYL from 2000 to 2020 in the range 8.1-9.4% and 5.4-7.7% for China and India, respectively. The lower projected increase in RYL for India may be due to conservative estimation of the emission increase in 2020. Sensitivity tests of the model showed that the PODY -based estimates of RYL are highly sensitive to perturbations in the meteorological inputs, but that the estimated increase in RYL from 2000 to 2020 is much more robust. The projected increase in wheat production loss in China and India in the near future is substantially larger than the uncertainties in the estimation and indicates an urgent need for curbing the rapid increase in surface [O3 ] in these regions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Toxicokinetics of perfluorooctane sulfonate in birds under environmentally realistic exposure conditions and development of a kinetic predictive model.

PubMed

Tarazona, J V; Rodríguez, C; Alonso, E; Sáez, M; González, F; San Andrés, M D; Jiménez, B; San Andrés, M I

2015-01-22

This article describes the toxicokinetics of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) in birds under low repeated dosing, equivalent to 0.085 μg/kg per day, representing environmentally realistic exposure conditions. The best fitting was provided by a simple pseudo monocompartmental first-order kinetics model, regulated by two rates, with a pseudo first-order dissipation half-life of 230 days, accounting for real elimination as well as binding of PFOS to non-exchangeable structures. The calculated assimilation efficiency was 0.66 with confidence intervals of 0.64 and 0.68. The model calculations confirmed that the measured maximum concentrations were still far from the steady state situation, which for this dose regime, was estimated at a value of about 65 μg PFOS/L serum achieved after a theoretical 210 weeks continuous exposure. The results confirm a very different kinetics than that observed in single-dose experiments confirming clear dose-related differences in apparent elimination rates in birds, as described for humans and monkeys; suggesting that a capacity-limited saturable process should also be considered in the kinetic behavior of PFOS in birds. Pseudo first-order kinetic models are highly convenient and frequently used for predicting bioaccumulation of chemicals in livestock and wildlife; the study suggests that previous bioaccumulation models using half-lives obtained at high doses are expected to underestimate the biomagnification potential of PFOS. The toxicokinetic parameters presented here can be used for higher-tier bioaccumulation estimations of PFOS in chickens and as surrogate values for modeling PFOS kinetics in wild bird species. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of interpatient variability on organ dose estimates according to MIRD schema: Uncertainty and variance-based sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Zvereva, Alexandra; Kamp, Florian; Schlattl, Helmut; Zankl, Maria; Parodi, Katia

2018-05-17

Variance-based sensitivity analysis (SA) is described and applied to the radiation dosimetry model proposed by the Committee on Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) for the organ-level absorbed dose calculations in nuclear medicine. The uncertainties in the dose coefficients thus calculated are also evaluated. A Monte Carlo approach was used to compute first-order and total-effect SA indices, which rank the input factors according to their influence on the uncertainty in the output organ doses. These methods were applied to the radiopharmaceutical (S)-4-(3- 18 F-fluoropropyl)-L-glutamic acid ( 18 F-FSPG) as an example. Since 18 F-FSPG has 11 notable source regions, a 22-dimensional model was considered here, where 11 input factors are the time-integrated activity coefficients (TIACs) in the source regions and 11 input factors correspond to the sets of the specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) employed in the dose calculation. The SA was restricted to the foregoing 22 input factors. The distributions of the input factors were built based on TIACs of five individuals to whom the radiopharmaceutical 18 F-FSPG was administered and six anatomical models, representing two reference, two overweight, and two slim individuals. The self-absorption SAFs were mass-scaled to correspond to the reference organ masses. The estimated relative uncertainties were in the range 10%-30%, with a minimum and a maximum for absorbed dose coefficients for urinary bladder wall and heart wall, respectively. The applied global variance-based SA enabled us to identify the input factors that have the highest influence on the uncertainty in the organ doses. With the applied mass-scaling of the self-absorption SAFs, these factors included the TIACs for absorbed dose coefficients in the source regions and the SAFs from blood as source region for absorbed dose coefficients in highly vascularized target regions. For some combinations of proximal target and source regions, the corresponding cross-fire SAFs were found to have an impact. Global variance-based SA has been for the first time applied to the MIRD schema for internal dose calculation. Our findings suggest that uncertainties in computed organ doses can be substantially reduced by performing an accurate determination of TIACs in the source regions, accompanied by the estimation of individual source region masses along with the usage of an appropriate blood distribution in a patient's body and, in a few cases, the cross-fire SAFs from proximal source regions. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

In situ Biological Dose Mapping Estimates the Radiation Burden Delivered to ‘Spared’ Tissue between Synchrotron X-Ray Microbeam Radiotherapy Tracks

PubMed Central

Rothkamm, Kai; Crosbie, Jeffrey C.; Daley, Frances; Bourne, Sarah; Barber, Paul R.; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Cann, Leonie; Rogers, Peter A. W.

2012-01-01

Microbeam radiation therapy (MRT) using high doses of synchrotron X-rays can destroy tumours in animal models whilst causing little damage to normal tissues. Determining the spatial distribution of radiation doses delivered during MRT at a microscopic scale is a major challenge. Film and semiconductor dosimetry as well as Monte Carlo methods struggle to provide accurate estimates of dose profiles and peak-to-valley dose ratios at the position of the targeted and traversed tissues whose biological responses determine treatment outcome. The purpose of this study was to utilise γ-H2AX immunostaining as a biodosimetric tool that enables in situ biological dose mapping within an irradiated tissue to provide direct biological evidence for the scale of the radiation burden to ‘spared’ tissue regions between MRT tracks. Γ-H2AX analysis allowed microbeams to be traced and DNA damage foci to be quantified in valleys between beams following MRT treatment of fibroblast cultures and murine skin where foci yields per unit dose were approximately five-fold lower than in fibroblast cultures. Foci levels in cells located in valleys were compared with calibration curves using known broadbeam synchrotron X-ray doses to generate spatial dose profiles and calculate peak-to-valley dose ratios of 30–40 for cell cultures and approximately 60 for murine skin, consistent with the range obtained with conventional dosimetry methods. This biological dose mapping approach could find several applications both in optimising MRT or other radiotherapeutic treatments and in estimating localised doses following accidental radiation exposure using skin punch biopsies. PMID:22238667

Nonlinear association between betel quid chewing and oral cancer: Implications for prevention.

PubMed

Madathil, Sreenath Arekunnath; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Wynant, Willy; Schlecht, Nicolas F; Netuveli, Gopalakrishnan; Franco, Eduardo L; Nicolau, Belinda

2016-09-01

Betel quid chewing is a major oral cancer risk factor and the human papillomaviruses (HPV) may play an aetiological role in these cancers. However, little is known about the shape of the dose-response relationship between the betel quid chewing habit and oral cancer risk in populations without HPV. We estimate the shape of this dose-response relationship, and discuss implications for prevention. Cases with oral squamous cell carcinoma (350) and non-cancer controls (371) were recruited from two major teaching hospitals in South India. Information on socio-demographic and behavioral factors was collected using a questionnaire and the life grid technique. The effect of daily amount of use and duration of the habit were estimated jointly as risk associated with cumulative exposure (chew-years). The shape of the dose-response curve was estimated using restricted cubic spline transformation of chew-years in a conditional logistic regression model. Risk estimates for low dose combinations of daily amount and duration of the habit were computed from flexible regression. Most (72%) oral cancer cases were betel quid chewers in contrast to only 18% of controls. A nonlinear dose-response relationship was observed; the risk increased steeply at low doses and plateaued at high exposures to betel quid (>425 chew-years). A threefold increase in risk (OR=3.92, 95%CI: 1.87-8.21) was observed for the lowest dose; equivalent to the use of one quid per day for one year. Our findings may be used to counsel people to refrain from even low betel quid chewing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SU-E-T-503: IMRT Optimization Using Monte Carlo Dose Engine: The Effect of Statistical Uncertainty.

PubMed

Tian, Z; Jia, X; Graves, Y; Uribe-Sanchez, A; Jiang, S

2012-06-01

With the development of ultra-fast GPU-based Monte Carlo (MC) dose engine, it becomes clinically realistic to compute the dose-deposition coefficients (DDC) for IMRT optimization using MC simulation. However, it is still time-consuming if we want to compute DDC with small statistical uncertainty. This work studies the effects of the statistical error in DDC matrix on IMRT optimization. The MC-computed DDC matrices are simulated here by adding statistical uncertainties at a desired level to the ones generated with a finite-size pencil beam algorithm. A statistical uncertainty model for MC dose calculation is employed. We adopt a penalty-based quadratic optimization model and gradient descent method to optimize fluence map and then recalculate the corresponding actual dose distribution using the noise-free DDC matrix. The impacts of DDC noise are assessed in terms of the deviation of the resulted dose distributions. We have also used a stochastic perturbation theory to theoretically estimate the statistical errors of dose distributions on a simplified optimization model. A head-and-neck case is used to investigate the perturbation to IMRT plan due to MC's statistical uncertainty. The relative errors of the final dose distributions of the optimized IMRT are found to be much smaller than those in the DDC matrix, which is consistent with our theoretical estimation. When history number is decreased from 108 to 106, the dose-volume-histograms are still very similar to the error-free DVHs while the error in DDC is about 3.8%. The results illustrate that the statistical errors in the DDC matrix have a relatively small effect on IMRT optimization in dose domain. This indicates we can use relatively small number of histories to obtain the DDC matrix with MC simulation within a reasonable amount of time, without considerably compromising the accuracy of the optimized treatment plan. This work is supported by Varian Medical Systems through a Master Research Agreement. © 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF OUT-OF-FIELD ORGAN DOSES AND CANCER RISK IN TANZANIA FOR RADIATION THERAPY OF UNILATERAL RETINOBLASTOMA USING A 60Co UNIT.

PubMed

Suleiman, Suleiman Ameir; Qi, Yaping; Pi, Yifei; George Xu, X

2018-05-01

The use of 60Co teletherapy unit for the treatment of unilateral retinoblastoma (Rb) patients is a very common procedure in many developing countries including Tanzania. The aim of this study was to estimate organ-specific absorbed doses from an external beam radiation therapy 60Co unit for unilateral Rb and to assess the risks of the patients developing a secondary primary cancer. The absorbed dose estimations were based on a Monte Carlo method and a set of age-dependent computational male phantoms. The estimated doses were used to calculate the secondary cancer risks in out-of-field organs using the Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII risk models. The survival information and baseline cancer risks were based on relevant statistics for the Tanzanian population. The resulting out-of-field organ doses data showed that organs which are close to the target volume, such as the brain, salivary glands and thyroid glands, received the highest absorbed dose from scattered photons during the treatment of Rb. It was also found that the resulting photons dose to specific organs depends on the patient's age. Younger patients are more sensitive to radiation and also received higher dose contributions from the treatment head due to a larger part of the body exposed to the photon radiation. In all sites considered, the overall risks associated with radiation-induced secondary cancer were relatively lower than the baseline risks. Thus, the results in this article can help to provide good estimations of radiation-induced secondary cancer after radiation treatment of unilateral Rb using 60Co teletherapy unit in Tanzania and other developing countries.

Enhancing Cytogenetic Biological Dosimetry Capabilities of the Philippines for Nuclear Incident Preparedness.

PubMed

Asaad, Celia O; Caraos, Gloriamaris L; Robles, Gerardo Jose M; Asa, Anie Day D C; Cobar, Maria Lucia C; Asaad, Al-Ahmadgaid

2016-01-01

The utility of a biological dosimeter based on the analysis of dicentrics is invaluable in the event of a radiological emergency wherein the estimated absorbed dose of an exposed individual is crucial in the proper medical management of patients. The technique is also used for routine monitoring of occupationally exposed workers to determine radiation exposure. An in vitro irradiation study of human peripheral blood lymphocytes was conducted to establish a dose-response curve for radiation-induced dicentric aberrations. Blood samples were collected from volunteer donors and together with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dosimeters and were irradiated at 0, 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 2, 4, and 6 Gy using a cobalt-60 radiotherapy unit. Blood samples were cultured for 48 h, and the metaphase chromosomes were prepared following the procedure of the International Atomic Energy Agency's Emergency Preparedness and Response - Biodosimetry 2011 manual. At least 100 metaphases were scored for dicentric aberrations at each dose point. The data were analyzed using R language program. The results indicated that the distribution of dicentric cells followed a Poisson distribution and the dose-response curve was established using the estimated model, Y dic = 0.0003 (±0.0003) +0.0336 (±0.0115) × D + 0.0236 (±0.0054) × D 2 . In this study, the reliability of the dose-response curve in estimating the absorbed dose was also validated for 2 and 4 Gy using OSL dosimeters. The data were fitted into the constructed curve. The result of the validation study showed that the obtained estimate for the absorbed exposure doses was close to the true exposure doses.

Real Time Radiation Monitoring Using Nanotechnology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jing (Inventor); Hanratty, James J. (Inventor); Wilkins, Richard T. (Inventor); Lu, Yijiang (Inventor)

2016-01-01

System and method for monitoring receipt and estimating flux value, in real time, of incident radiation, using two or more nanostructures (NSs) and associated terminals to provide closed electrical paths and to measure one or more electrical property change values .DELTA.EPV, associated with irradiated NSs, during a sequence of irradiation time intervals. Effects of irradiation, without healing and with healing, of the NSs, are separately modeled for first order and second order healing. Change values.DELTA.EPV are related to flux, to cumulative dose received by NSs, and to radiation and healing effectivity parameters and/or.mu., associated with the NS material and to the flux. Flux and/or dose are estimated in real time, based on EPV change values, using measured .DELTA.EPV values. Threshold dose for specified changes of biological origin (usually undesired) can be estimated. Effects of time-dependent radiation flux are analyzed in pre-healing and healing regimes.

Toxicokinetics of perfluorooctane sulfonate in rabbits under environmentally realistic exposure conditions and comparative assessment between mammals and birds.

PubMed

Tarazona, J V; Rodríguez, C; Alonso, E; Sáez, M; González, F; San Andrés, M D; Jiménez, B; San Andrés, M I

2016-01-22

This article describes the toxicokinetics of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) in rabbits under low repeated dosing, equivalent to 0.085μg/kg per day, and the observed differences between rabbits and chickens. The best fitting for both species was provided by a simple pseudo monocompartmental first-order kinetics model, regulated by two rates, and accounting for real elimination as well as binding of PFOS to non-exchangeable structures. Elimination was more rapid in rabbits, with a pseudo first-order dissipation half-life of 88 days compared to the 230 days observed for chickens. By contrast, the calculated assimilation efficiency for rabbits was almost 1, very close to full absorption, significantly higher than the 0.66 with confidence intervals of 0.64 and 0.68 observed for chickens. The results confirm a very different kinetics than that observed in single-dose experiments confirming clear dose-related differences in apparent elimination rates in rabbits, as previously described for humans and other mammals; suggesting the role of a capacity-limited saturable process resulting in different kinetic behaviours for PFOS in high dose versus environmentally relevant low dose exposure conditions. The model calculations confirmed that the measured maximum concentrations were still far from the steady state situation, and that the different kinetics between birds and mammals should may play a significant role in the biomagnifications assessment and potential exposure for humans and predators. For the same dose regime, the steady state concentration was estimated at about 36μg PFOS/L serum for rabbits, slightly above one-half of the 65μg PFOS/L serum estimated for chickens. The toxicokinetic parameters presented here can be used for higher-tier bioaccumulation estimations of PFOS in rabbits and chickens as starting point for human health exposure assessments and as surrogate values for modeling PFOS kinetics in wild mammals and bird in exposure assessment of predatory species. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Using pharmacoeconomic modelling to determine value-based pricing for new pharmaceuticals in malaysia.

PubMed

Dranitsaris, George; Truter, Ilse; Lubbe, Martie S; Sriramanakoppa, Nitin N; Mendonca, Vivian M; Mahagaonkar, Sangameshwar B

2011-10-01

Decision analysis (DA) is commonly used to perform economic evaluations of new pharmaceuticals. Using multiples of Malaysia's per capita 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) as the threshold for economic value as suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO), DA was used to estimate a price per dose for bevacizumab, a drug that provides a 1.4-month survival benefit in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). A decision model was developed to simulate progression-free and overall survival in mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy with and without bevacizumab. Costs for chemotherapy and management of side effects were obtained from public and private hospitals in Malaysia. Utility estimates, measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), were determined by interviewing 24 oncology nurses using the time trade-off technique. The price per dose was then estimated using a target threshold of US$44 400 per QALY gained, which is 3 times the Malaysian per capita GDP. A cost-effective price for bevacizumab could not be determined because the survival benefit provided was insufficient According to the WHO criteria, if the drug was able to improve survival from 1.4 to 3 or 6 months, the price per dose would be $567 and $1258, respectively. The use of decision modelling for estimating drug pricing is a powerful technique to ensure value for money. Such information is of value to drug manufacturers and formulary committees because it facilitates negotiations for value-based pricing in a given jurisdiction.

A kinematic model to estimate the effective dose of radioactive isotopes in the human body for radiological protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, S.; Yamada, T.

2013-12-01

The great earthquake attacked the north-east area in Japan in March 11, 2011. The system of electrical facilities to control Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station was completely destroyed by the following tsunamis. From the damaged reactor containment vessels, an amount of radioactive substances had leaked and been diffused in the vicinity of this station. Radiological internal exposure becomes a serious social issue both in Japan and all over the world. The present study provides an easily understandable, kinematic-based model to estimate the effective dose of radioactive substances in a human body by simplified the complicated mechanism of metabolism. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has developed an exact model, which is well-known as a standard method to calculate the effective dose for radiological protection. However, owing to that the above method accord too much with the actual mechanism of metabolism in human bodies, it becomes rather difficult for non-professional people of radiology to gasp the whole images of the movement and the influences of radioactive substances in a human body. Therefore, in the present paper we propose a newly-derived and easily-understandable model to estimate the effective dose. The present method is very similar with the traditional and conventional hydrological tank model. Ingestion flux of radioactive substances corresponds to rain intensity and the storage of radioactive substances to the water storage in a basin in runoff analysis. The key of this method is to estimate the energy radiated from the radioactive nuclear disintegration of an atom by using classical theory of E. Fermi of beta decay and special relativity for various kinds of radioactive atoms. The parameters used in this study are only physical half-time and biological half-time, and there are no intentional and operational parameters of coefficients to adjust our theoretical runoff to observation of ICRP. Figure.1 compares time series of effective cesium-137 dose according to age calculated by ICRP software with calculated by the present method. Plots are calculated values by ICRP, the solid line is analytic solution given from the present method. It should be noted that the present study does not consider complicated mechanism, but it could give equally accurate results comparing to existing research. Time series of effective Cs-137 dose according to age when food contains 1 Bq/year is ingested for 1 year. (Plots are calculated values by ICRP. The solid line is analytic solution given from the present method)

Probability Distribution of Dose and Dose-Rate Effectiveness Factor for use in Estimating Risks of Solid Cancers From Exposure to Low-Let Radiation.

PubMed

Kocher, David C; Apostoaei, A Iulian; Hoffman, F Owen; Trabalka, John R

2018-06-01

This paper presents an analysis to develop a subjective state-of-knowledge probability distribution of a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor for use in estimating risks of solid cancers from exposure to low linear energy transfer radiation (photons or electrons) whenever linear dose responses from acute and chronic exposure are assumed. A dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor represents an assumption that the risk of a solid cancer per Gy at low acute doses or low dose rates of low linear energy transfer radiation, RL, differs from the risk per Gy at higher acute doses, RH; RL is estimated as RH divided by a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor, where RH is estimated from analyses of dose responses in Japanese atomic-bomb survivors. A probability distribution to represent uncertainty in a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor for solid cancers was developed from analyses of epidemiologic data on risks of incidence or mortality from all solid cancers as a group or all cancers excluding leukemias, including (1) analyses of possible nonlinearities in dose responses in atomic-bomb survivors, which give estimates of a low-dose effectiveness factor, and (2) comparisons of risks in radiation workers or members of the public from chronic exposure to low linear energy transfer radiation at low dose rates with risks in atomic-bomb survivors, which give estimates of a dose-rate effectiveness factor. Probability distributions of uncertain low-dose effectiveness factors and dose-rate effectiveness factors for solid cancer incidence and mortality were combined using assumptions about the relative weight that should be assigned to each estimate to represent its relevance to estimation of a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor. The probability distribution of a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor for solid cancers developed in this study has a median (50th percentile) and 90% subjective confidence interval of 1.3 (0.47, 3.6). The harmonic mean is 1.1, which implies that the arithmetic mean of an uncertain estimate of the risk of a solid cancer per Gy at low acute doses or low dose rates of low linear energy transfer radiation is only about 10% less than the mean risk per Gy at higher acute doses. Data were also evaluated to define a low acute dose or low dose rate of low linear energy transfer radiation, i.e., a dose or dose rate below which a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor should be applied in estimating risks of solid cancers.

Estimation of whole-body radiation exposure from brachytherapy for oral cancer using a Monte Carlo simulation

PubMed Central

Ozaki, Y.; Kaida, A.; Miura, M.; Nakagawa, K.; Toda, K.; Yoshimura, R.; Sumi, Y.; Kurabayashi, T.

2017-01-01

Abstract Early stage oral cancer can be cured with oral brachytherapy, but whole-body radiation exposure status has not been previously studied. Recently, the International Commission on Radiological Protection Committee (ICRP) recommended the use of ICRP phantoms to estimate radiation exposure from external and internal radiation sources. In this study, we used a Monte Carlo simulation with ICRP phantoms to estimate whole-body exposure from oral brachytherapy. We used a Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS) to model oral brachytherapy with 192Ir hairpins and 198Au grains and to perform a Monte Carlo simulation on the ICRP adult reference computational phantoms. To confirm the simulations, we also computed local dose distributions from these small sources, and compared them with the results from Oncentra manual Low Dose Rate Treatment Planning (mLDR) software which is used in day-to-day clinical practice. We successfully obtained data on absorbed dose for each organ in males and females. Sex-averaged equivalent doses were 0.547 and 0.710 Sv with 192Ir hairpins and 198Au grains, respectively. Simulation with PHITS was reliable when compared with an alternative computational technique using mLDR software. We concluded that the absorbed dose for each organ and whole-body exposure from oral brachytherapy can be estimated with Monte Carlo simulation using PHITS on ICRP reference phantoms. Effective doses for patients with oral cancer were obtained. PMID:28339846

Costs of delivering human papillomavirus vaccination to schoolgirls in Mwanza Region, Tanzania

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Cervical cancer is the leading cause of female cancer-related deaths in Tanzania. Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) offers a new opportunity to control this disease. This study aimed to estimate the costs of a school-based HPV vaccination project in three districts in Mwanza Region (NCT ID: NCT01173900), Tanzania and to model incremental scaled-up costs of a regional vaccination program. Methods We first conducted a top-down cost analysis of the vaccination project, comparing observed costs of age-based (girls born in 1998) and class-based (class 6) vaccine delivery in a total of 134 primary schools. Based on the observed project costs, we then modeled incremental costs of a scaled-up vaccination program for Mwanza Region from the perspective of the Tanzanian government, assuming that HPV vaccines would be delivered through the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI). Results Total economic project costs for delivering 3 doses of HPV vaccine to 4,211 girls were estimated at about US$349,400 (including a vaccine price of US$5 per dose). Costs per fully-immunized girl were lower for class-based delivery than for age-based delivery. Incremental economic scaled-up costs for class-based vaccination of 50,290 girls in Mwanza Region were estimated at US$1.3 million. Economic scaled-up costs per fully-immunized girl were US$26.41, including HPV vaccine at US$5 per dose. Excluding vaccine costs, vaccine could be delivered at an incremental economic cost of US$3.09 per dose and US$9.76 per fully-immunized girl. Financial scaled-up costs, excluding costs of the vaccine and salaries of existing staff were estimated at US$1.73 per dose. Conclusions Project costs of class-based vaccination were found to be below those of age-based vaccination because of more eligible girls being identified and higher vaccine uptake. We estimate that vaccine can be delivered at costs that would make HPV vaccination a very cost-effective intervention. Potentially, integrating HPV vaccine delivery with cost-effective school-based health interventions and a reduction of vaccine price below US$5 per dose would further reduce the costs per fully HPV-immunized girl. PMID:23148516

Costs of delivering human papillomavirus vaccination to schoolgirls in Mwanza Region, Tanzania.

PubMed

Quentin, Wilm; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Changalucha, John; Soteli, Selephina; Edmunds, W John; Hutubessy, Raymond; Ross, David A; Kapiga, Saidi; Hayes, Richard; Watson-Jones, Deborah

2012-11-13

Cervical cancer is the leading cause of female cancer-related deaths in Tanzania. Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) offers a new opportunity to control this disease. This study aimed to estimate the costs of a school-based HPV vaccination project in three districts in Mwanza Region (NCT ID: NCT01173900), Tanzania and to model incremental scaled-up costs of a regional vaccination program. We first conducted a top-down cost analysis of the vaccination project, comparing observed costs of age-based (girls born in 1998) and class-based (class 6) vaccine delivery in a total of 134 primary schools. Based on the observed project costs, we then modeled incremental costs of a scaled-up vaccination program for Mwanza Region from the perspective of the Tanzanian government, assuming that HPV vaccines would be delivered through the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI). Total economic project costs for delivering 3 doses of HPV vaccine to 4,211 girls were estimated at about US$349,400 (including a vaccine price of US$5 per dose). Costs per fully-immunized girl were lower for class-based delivery than for age-based delivery. Incremental economic scaled-up costs for class-based vaccination of 50,290 girls in Mwanza Region were estimated at US$1.3 million. Economic scaled-up costs per fully-immunized girl were US$26.41, including HPV vaccine at US$5 per dose. Excluding vaccine costs, vaccine could be delivered at an incremental economic cost of US$3.09 per dose and US$9.76 per fully-immunized girl. Financial scaled-up costs, excluding costs of the vaccine and salaries of existing staff were estimated at US$1.73 per dose. Project costs of class-based vaccination were found to be below those of age-based vaccination because of more eligible girls being identified and higher vaccine uptake. We estimate that vaccine can be delivered at costs that would make HPV vaccination a very cost-effective intervention. Potentially, integrating HPV vaccine delivery with cost-effective school-based health interventions and a reduction of vaccine price below US$5 per dose would further reduce the costs per fully HPV-immunized girl.

Nonlinear pharmacokinetics of visnagin in rats after intravenous bolus administration.

PubMed

Haug, Karin G; Weber, Benjamin; Hochhaus, Guenther; Butterweck, Veronika

2012-01-23

Ammi visnaga L. (syn. Khella, Apiaceae) preparations have traditionally been used in the Middle East for the treatment of kidney stone disease. Visnagin, a furanocoumarin derivative, is one of the main compounds of Ammi visnaga with potential effects on kidney stone prevention. To date, no information is available about the pharmacokinetic (PK) properties of visnagin. It was the aim of the study to characterize the PK properties of visnagin after intravenous (i.v.) bolus administration in rats and to develop an adequate model for the description of the observed data, including model parameter estimates. Therefore, three doses of visnagin (1.25, 2.5, and 5mg/kg) solubilized in 25% Captisol® were administered by i.v. bolus injection to male Sprague-Dawley rats. Plasma samples were extracted and subsequently analyzed using a validated LC-MS/MS method. Both non-compartmental and compartmental PK analyses were performed. A stepwise model building approach was applied including nonlinear mixed effect modeling for final model selection and to obtain final model estimates in NONMEM VI. The average areas under the curve (AUC(0-last)) after doses of 1.25, 2.5, and 5mg/kg were 1.03, 3.61, and 12.6 mg *h/l, respectively. The shape of the plasma concentration-time profiles and the observed disproportionate increase in AUC(0-last) with increasing dose suggested nonlinearity in the elimination of visnagin. A two-compartment Michaelis-Menten model provided the best fit with following typical values of the parameter estimates: 2.09 mg/(l*h) (V(max)), 0.08 mg/l (K(M)), 0.175 l (V(C)), 1.0 h⁻¹ (k₁₂), and 1.22 h⁻¹ (k₂₁). Associated inter-subject variability estimates (% CV) for V(max), K(M) and V(C) were 21.8, 70.9, and 9.2, respectively. Intra-subject variability (constant CV error model) was estimated to be 7.0%. The results suggest the involvement of a saturable process in the elimination of visnagin, possibly an enzyme or transporter system. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational and human observer image quality evaluation of low dose, knowledge-based CT iterative reconstruction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eck, Brendan L.; Fahmi, Rachid; Miao, Jun

2015-10-15

Purpose: Aims in this study are to (1) develop a computational model observer which reliably tracks the detectability of human observers in low dose computed tomography (CT) images reconstructed with knowledge-based iterative reconstruction (IMR™, Philips Healthcare) and filtered back projection (FBP) across a range of independent variables, (2) use the model to evaluate detectability trends across reconstructions and make predictions of human observer detectability, and (3) perform human observer studies based on model predictions to demonstrate applications of the model in CT imaging. Methods: Detectability (d′) was evaluated in phantom studies across a range of conditions. Images were generated usingmore » a numerical CT simulator. Trained observers performed 4-alternative forced choice (4-AFC) experiments across dose (1.3, 2.7, 4.0 mGy), pin size (4, 6, 8 mm), contrast (0.3%, 0.5%, 1.0%), and reconstruction (FBP, IMR), at fixed display window. A five-channel Laguerre–Gauss channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) was developed with internal noise added to the decision variable and/or to channel outputs, creating six different internal noise models. Semianalytic internal noise computation was tested against Monte Carlo and used to accelerate internal noise parameter optimization. Model parameters were estimated from all experiments at once using maximum likelihood on the probability correct, P{sub C}. Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to compare models of different orders. The best model was selected according to AIC and used to predict detectability in blended FBP-IMR images, analyze trends in IMR detectability improvements, and predict dose savings with IMR. Predicted dose savings were compared against 4-AFC study results using physical CT phantom images. Results: Detection in IMR was greater than FBP in all tested conditions. The CHO with internal noise proportional to channel output standard deviations, Model-k4, showed the best trade-off between fit and model complexity according to AIC{sub c}. With parameters fixed, the model reasonably predicted detectability of human observers in blended FBP-IMR images. Semianalytic internal noise computation gave results equivalent to Monte Carlo, greatly speeding parameter estimation. Using Model-k4, the authors found an average detectability improvement of 2.7 ± 0.4 times that of FBP. IMR showed greater improvements in detectability with larger signals and relatively consistent improvements across signal contrast and x-ray dose. In the phantom tested, Model-k4 predicted an 82% dose reduction compared to FBP, verified with physical CT scans at 80% reduced dose. Conclusions: IMR improves detectability over FBP and may enable significant dose reductions. A channelized Hotelling observer with internal noise proportional to channel output standard deviation agreed well with human observers across a wide range of variables, even across reconstructions with drastically different image characteristics. Utility of the model observer was demonstrated by predicting the effect of image processing (blending), analyzing detectability improvements with IMR across dose, size, and contrast, and in guiding real CT scan dose reduction experiments. Such a model observer can be applied in optimizing parameters in advanced iterative reconstruction algorithms as well as guiding dose reduction protocols in physical CT experiments.« less

Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk Estimates in 16-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography

PubMed Central

Einstein, Andrew J.; Sanz, Javier; Dellegrottaglie, Santo; Milite, Margherita; Sirol, Marc; Henzlova, Milena; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

2008-01-01

Background Recent advances have led to a rapid increase in the number of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) studies performed. While several studies have reported effective dose (E), there is no data available on cancer risk for current CTCA protocols. Methods and Results E and organ doses were estimated, using scanner-derived parameters and Monte Carlo methods, for 50 patients having 16-slice CTCA performed for clinical indications. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were estimated with models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. E of a complete CTCA averaged 9.5 mSv, while that of a complete study, including calcium scoring when indicated, averaged 11.7 mSv. Calcium scoring increased E by 25%, while tube current modulation reduced it by 34% and was more effective at lower heart rates. Organ doses were highest to the lungs and female breast. LAR of cancer incidence from CTCA averaged approximately 1 in 1600, but varied widely between patients, being highest in younger women. For all patients, the greatest risk was from lung cancer. Conclusions CTCA is associated with non-negligible risk of malignancy. Doses can be reduced by careful attention to scanning protocol. PMID:18371595

HARMONIZATION AND COMMUNICATION OF PBPK MODELS USING THE EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATION MODEL (ERDEM) SYSTEM: TRICHLOROETHYLENE

EPA Science Inventory

In support of the trichloroethylene (TCE) risk assessment for the Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, and Office of Water, NERL and NCEA are developing an updated physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. The PBPK modeling effort ...

A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH FOR PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC (PBPK) MODELS USING THE EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL (ERDEM) SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

The implementation of a comprehensive PBPK modeling approach resulted in ERDEM, a complex PBPK modeling system. ERDEM provides a scalable and user-friendly environment that enables researchers to focus on data input values rather than writing program code. ERDEM efficiently m...

Estimation of occupational cosmic radiation exposure among airline personnel: Agreement between a job-exposure matrix, aggregate, and individual dose estimates.

PubMed

Talibov, Madar; Salmelin, Raili; Lehtinen-Jacks, Susanna; Auvinen, Anssi

2017-04-01

Job-exposure matrices (JEM) are used for exposure assessment in occupational studies, but they can involve errors. We assessed agreement between the Nordic Occupational Cancer Studies JEM (NOCCA-JEM) and aggregate and individual dose estimates for cosmic radiation exposure among Finnish airline personnel. Cumulative cosmic radiation exposure for 5,022 airline crew members was compared between a JEM and aggregate and individual dose estimates. The NOCCA-JEM underestimated individual doses. Intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.37, proportion of agreement 64%, kappa 0.46 compared with individual doses. Higher agreement was achieved with aggregate dose estimates, that is annual medians of individual doses and estimates adjusted for heliocentric potentials. The substantial disagreement between NOCCA-JEM and individual dose estimates of cosmic radiation may lead to exposure misclassification and biased risk estimates in epidemiological studies. Using aggregate data may provide improved estimates. Am. J. Ind. Med. 60:386-393, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Bayesian Dose-finding Design for Oncology Clinical Trials of Combinational Biological Agents

PubMed Central

Cai, Chunyan; Yuan, Ying; Ji, Yuan

2013-01-01

Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which efficacy and toxicity monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a dose-finding design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. PMID:24511160

Estimation of the radiation dose from radiotherapy for skin haemangiomas in childhood: the ICTA software for epidemiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamsaldin, A.; Lundell, M.; Diallo, I.; Ligot, L.; Chavaudra, J.; de Vathaire, F.

2000-12-01

Radium applicators and pure beta emitters have been widely used in the past to treat skin haemangioma in early childhood. A well defined relationship between the low doses received from these applicators and radiation-induced cancers requires accurate dosimetry. A human-based CT scan phantom has been used to simulate every patient and treatment condition and then to calculate the source-target distance when radium and pure beta applicators were used. The effective transmission factor ϕ(r) for the gamma spectrum emitted by the radium sources applied on the skin surface was modelled using Monte Carlo simulations. The well-known quantization approach was used to calculate gamma doses delivered from radium applicators to various anatomical points. For 32P, 90Sr/90Y applicators and 90Y needles we have used the apparent exponential attenuation equation. The dose calculation algorithm was integrated into the ICTA software (standing for a model that constructs an Individualized phantom based on CT slices and Auxological data), which has been developed for epidemiological studies of cohorts of patients who received radium and beta-treatments for skin haemangioma. The ϕ(r) values obtained for radium skin applicators are in good agreement with the available values in the first 10 cm but higher at greater distances. Gamma doses can be calculated with this algorithm at 165 anatomical points throughout the body of patients treated with radium applicators. Lung heterogeneity and air crossed by the gamma rays are considered. Comparison of absorbed doses in water from a 10 mg equivalent radium source simulated by ICTA with those measured at the Radiumhemmet, Karolinska Hospital (RAH) showed good agreement, but ICTA estimation of organ doses did not always correspond those estimated at the RAH. Beta doses from 32P, 90Sr/90Y applicators and 90Y needles are calculated up to the maximum beta range (11 mm).

ESTIMATING SOLAR RADIATION EXPOSURE IN WETLANDS USING RADIATION MODELS, FIELD DATA, AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

This seminar will describe development of methods for the estimation of solar radiation doses in wetlands. The methodology presents a novel approach to incorporating aspects of solar radiation dosimetry that have historically received limited attention. These include effects of a...

Treatment of Amblyopia Using Personalized Dosing Strategies: Statistical Modelling and Clinical Implementation.

PubMed

Wallace, Michael P; Stewart, Catherine E; Moseley, Merrick J; Stephens, David A; Fielder, Alistair R

2016-12-01

To generate a statistical model for personalizing a patient's occlusion therapy regimen. Statistical modelling was undertaken on a combined data set of the Monitored Occlusion Treatment of Amblyopia Study (MOTAS) and the Randomized Occlusion Treatment of Amblyopia Study (ROTAS). This exercise permits the calculation of future patients' total effective dose (TED)-that predicted to achieve their best attainable visual acuity. Daily patching regimens (hours/day) can be calculated from the TED. Occlusion data for 149 study participants with amblyopia (anisometropic in 50, strabismic in 43, and mixed in 56) were analyzed. Median time to best observed visual acuity was 63 days (25% and 75% quartiles; 28 and 91 days). Median visual acuity in the amblyopic eye at start of occlusion was 0.40 logMAR (quartiles 0.22 and 0.68 logMAR) and at end of occlusion was 0.12 (quartiles 0.025 and 0.32 logMAR). Median lower and upper estimates of TED were 120 hours (quartiles 34 and 242 hours), and 176 hours (quartiles 84 and 316 hours). The data suggest a piecewise linear relationship (P = 0.008) between patching dose-rate (hours/day) and TED with a single breakpoint estimated at 2.16 (standard error 0.51) hours/day, suggesting doses below 2.16 hours/day are less effective. We introduce the concept of TED of occlusion. Predictors for TED are visual acuity deficit, amblyopia type, and age at start of occlusion therapy. Dose-rates prescribed within the model range from 2.5 to 12 hours/day and can be revised dynamically throughout treatment in response to recorded patient compliance: a personalized dosing strategy.

MODELED ESTIMATES OF CHLORPYRIFOS EXPOSURE AND DOSE FOR THE MINNESOTA AND ARIZONA NHEXAS POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a probabilistic, multimedia, multipathway exposure model and assessment for chlorpyrifos developed as part of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS). The model was constructed using available information prior to completion of the NHEXAS stu...

I-131 Dose Response for Incident Thyroid Cancers in Ukraine Related to the Chornobyl Accident

PubMed Central

Tronko, Mykola D.; Hatch, Maureen; Bogdanova, Tetyana I.; Oliynik, Valery A.; Lubin, Jay H.; Zablotska, Lydia B.; Tereschenko, Valery P.; McConnell, Robert J.; Zamotaeva, Galina A.; O’Kane, Patrick; Bouville, Andre C.; Chaykovskaya, Ludmila V.; Greenebaum, Ellen; Paster, Ihor P.; Shpak, Victor M.; Ron, Elaine

2011-01-01

Background: Current knowledge about Chornobyl-related thyroid cancer risks comes from ecological studies based on grouped doses, case–control studies, and studies of prevalent cancers. Objective: To address this limitation, we evaluated the dose–response relationship for incident thyroid cancers using measurement-based individual iodine-131 (I-131) thyroid dose estimates in a prospective analytic cohort study. Methods: The cohort consists of individuals < 18 years of age on 26 April 1986 who resided in three contaminated oblasts (states) of Ukraine and underwent up to four thyroid screening examinations between 1998 and 2007 (n = 12,514). Thyroid doses of I-131 were estimated based on individual radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident, environmental transport models, and interview data. Excess radiation risks were estimated using Poisson regression models. Results: Sixty-five incident thyroid cancers were diagnosed during the second through fourth screenings and 73,004 person-years (PY) of observation. The dose–response relationship was consistent with linearity on relative and absolute scales, although the excess relative risk (ERR) model described data better than did the excess absolute risk (EAR) model. The ERR per gray was 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.43–6.34], and the EAR per 104 PY/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI, 0.04–5.78). The ERR per gray varied significantly by oblast of residence but not by time since exposure, use of iodine prophylaxis, iodine status, sex, age, or tumor size. Conclusions: I-131–related thyroid cancer risks persisted for two decades after exposure, with no evidence of decrease during the observation period. The radiation risks, although smaller, are compatible with those of retrospective and ecological post-Chornobyl studies. PMID:21406336

Estimating the uncertainty of calculated out-of-field organ dose from a commercial treatment planning system.

PubMed

Wang, Lilie; Ding, George X

2018-06-12

Therapeutic radiation to cancer patients is accompanied by unintended radiation to organs outside the treatment field. It is known that the model-based dose algorithm has limitation in calculating the out-of-field doses. This study evaluated the out-of-field dose calculated by the Varian Eclipse treatment planning system (v.11 with AAA algorithm) in realistic treatment plans with the goal of estimating the uncertainties of calculated organ doses. Photon beam phase-space files for TrueBeam linear accelerator were provided by Varian. These were used as incident sources in EGSnrc Monte Carlo simulations of radiation transport through the downstream jaws and MLC. Dynamic movements of the MLC leaves were fully modeled based on treatment plans using IMRT or VMAT techniques. The Monte Carlo calculated out-of-field doses were then compared with those calculated by Eclipse. The dose comparisons were performed for different beam energies and treatment sites, including head-and-neck, lung, and pelvis. For 6 MV (FF/FFF), 10 MV (FF/FFF), and 15 MV (FF) beams, Eclipse underestimated out-of-field local doses by 30%-50% compared with Monte Carlo calculations when the local dose was <1% of prescribed dose. The accuracy of out-of-field dose calculations using Eclipse is improved when collimator jaws were set at the smallest possible aperture for MLC openings. The Eclipse system consistently underestimates out-of-field dose by a factor of 2 for all beam energies studied at the local dose level of less than 1% of prescribed dose. These findings are useful in providing information on the uncertainties of out-of-field organ doses calculated by Eclipse treatment planning system. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Applied Clinical Medical Physics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Risk of solid cancer in low dose-rate radiation epidemiological studies and the dose-rate effectiveness factor.

PubMed

Shore, Roy; Walsh, Linda; Azizova, Tamara; Rühm, Werner

2017-10-01

Estimated radiation risks used for radiation protection purposes have been based primarily on the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors who received brief exposures at high dose rates, many with high doses. Information is needed regarding radiation risks from low dose-rate (LDR) exposures to low linear-energy-transfer (low-LET) radiation. We conducted a meta-analysis of LDR epidemiologic studies that provide dose-response estimates of total solid cancer risk in adulthood in comparison to corresponding LSS risks, in order to estimate a dose rate effectiveness factor (DREF). We identified 22 LDR studies with dose-response risk estimates for solid cancer after minimizing information overlap. For each study, a parallel risk estimate was derived from the LSS risk model using matching values for sex, mean ages at first exposure and attained age, targeted cancer types, and accounting for type of dosimetric assessment. For each LDR study, a ratio of the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR Gy -1 ) to the matching LSS ERR risk estimate (LDR/LSS) was calculated, and a meta-analysis of the risk ratios was conducted. The reciprocal of the resultant risk ratio provided an estimate of the DREF. The meta-analysis showed a LDR/LSS risk ratio of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14, 0.57) for the 19 studies of solid cancer mortality and 0.33 (95% CI 0.13, 0.54) when three cohorts with only incidence data also were added, implying a DREF with values around 3, but statistically compatible with 2. However, the analyses were highly dominated by the Mayak worker study. When the Mayak study was excluded the LDR/LSS risk ratios increased: 1.12 (95% CI 0.40, 1.84) for mortality and 0.54 (95% CI 0.09, 0.99) for mortality + incidence, implying a lower DREF in the range of 1-2. Meta-analyses that included only cohorts in which the mean dose was <100 mGy yielded a risk ratio of 1.06 (95% CI 0.30, 1.83) for solid cancer mortality and 0.58 (95% CI 0.10, 1.06) for mortality + incidence data. The interpretation of a best estimate for a value of the DREF depends on the appropriateness of including the Mayak study. This study indicates a range of uncertainty in the value of DREF between 1 and about 2 after protracted radiation exposure. The LDR data provide direct evidence regarding risk from exposures at low dose rates as an important complement to the LSS risk estimates used for radiation protection purposes.

Estimating patient dose from CT exams that use automatic exposure control: Development and validation of methods to accurately estimate tube current values.

PubMed

McMillan, Kyle; Bostani, Maryam; Cagnon, Christopher H; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; McCollough, Cynthia H; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2017-08-01

The vast majority of body CT exams are performed with automatic exposure control (AEC), which adapts the mean tube current to the patient size and modulates the tube current either angularly, longitudinally or both. However, most radiation dose estimation tools are based on fixed tube current scans. Accurate estimates of patient dose from AEC scans require knowledge of the tube current values, which is usually unavailable. The purpose of this work was to develop and validate methods to accurately estimate the tube current values prescribed by one manufacturer's AEC system to enable accurate estimates of patient dose. Methods were developed that took into account available patient attenuation information, user selected image quality reference parameters and x-ray system limits to estimate tube current values for patient scans. Methods consistent with AAPM Report 220 were developed that used patient attenuation data that were: (a) supplied by the manufacturer in the CT localizer radiograph and (b) based on a simulated CT localizer radiograph derived from image data. For comparison, actual tube current values were extracted from the projection data of each patient. Validation of each approach was based on data collected from 40 pediatric and adult patients who received clinically indicated chest (n = 20) and abdomen/pelvis (n = 20) scans on a 64 slice multidetector row CT (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). For each patient dataset, the following were collected with Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval: (a) projection data containing actual tube current values at each projection view, (b) CT localizer radiograph (topogram) and (c) reconstructed image data. Tube current values were estimated based on the actual topogram (actual-topo) as well as the simulated topogram based on image data (sim-topo). Each of these was compared to the actual tube current values from the patient scan. In addition, to assess the accuracy of each method in estimating patient organ doses, Monte Carlo simulations were performed by creating voxelized models of each patient, identifying key organs and incorporating tube current values into the simulations to estimate dose to the lungs and breasts (females only) for chest scans and the liver, kidney, and spleen for abdomen/pelvis scans. Organ doses from simulations using the actual tube current values were compared to those using each of the estimated tube current values (actual-topo and sim-topo). When compared to the actual tube current values, the average error for tube current values estimated from the actual topogram (actual-topo) and simulated topogram (sim-topo) was 3.9% and 5.8% respectively. For Monte Carlo simulations of chest CT exams using the actual tube current values and estimated tube current values (based on the actual-topo and sim-topo methods), the average differences for lung and breast doses ranged from 3.4% to 6.6%. For abdomen/pelvis exams, the average differences for liver, kidney, and spleen doses ranged from 4.2% to 5.3%. Strong agreement between organ doses estimated using actual and estimated tube current values provides validation of both methods for estimating tube current values based on data provided in the topogram or simulated from image data. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Effects of hypertonic buffer composition on lymph node uptake and bioavailability of rituximab, after subcutaneous administration.

PubMed

Fathallah, Anas M; Turner, Michael R; Mager, Donald E; Balu-Iyer, Sathy V

2015-03-01

The subcutaneous administration of biologics is highly desirable; however, incomplete bioavailability after s.c. administration remains a major challenge. In this work we investigated the effects of excipient dependent hyperosmolarity on lymphatic uptake and plasma exposure of rituximab as a model protein. Using Swiss Webster (SW) mice as the animal model, we compared the effects of NaCl, mannitol and O-phospho-L-serine (OPLS) on the plasma concentration of rituximab over 5 days after s.c. administration. An increase was observed in plasma concentrations in animals administered rituximab in hypertonic buffer solutions, compared with isotonic buffer. Bioavailability, as estimated by our pharmacokinetic model, increased from 29% in isotonic buffer to 54% in hypertonic buffer containing NaCl, to almost complete bioavailability in hypertonic buffers containing high dose OPLS or mannitol. This improvement in plasma exposure is due to the improved lymphatic trafficking as evident from the increase in the fraction of dose trafficked through the lymph nodes in the presence of hypertonic buffers. The fraction of the dose trafficked through the lymphatics, as estimated by the model, increased from 0.05% in isotonic buffer to 13% in hypertonic buffer containing NaCl to about 30% for hypertonic buffers containing high dose OPLS and mannitol. The data suggest that hypertonic solutions may be a viable option for improving s.c. bioavailability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of hypertonic buffer composition on lymph node uptake and bioavailability of rituximab, after subcutaneous administration

PubMed Central

Fathallah, Anas M.; Turner, Michael R.; Balu-Iyer, Sathy V.

2015-01-01

Subcutaneous administration of biologics is highly desirable; however, incomplete bioavailability after sc administration remains a major challenge. In this work we investigated the effects of excipient dependent hyper-osmolarity on lymphatic uptake and plasma exposure of rituximab as a model protein. Using Swiss Webster (SW) mice as our animal model, we compared the effects of NaCl, mannitol and, O-Phospho-L-Serine (OPLS) on plasma concentration of rituximab over 5 days after sc administration. We observed an increase in plasma concentrations in animals administered rituximab in hypertonic buffer solutions, as compared to isotonic buffer. Bioavailability, as estimated by our pharmacokinetic model, increased from 29% in isotonic buffer to 54% in hypertonic buffer containing NaCl, to almost complete bioavailability in hypertonic buffers containing high dose OPLS or mannitol. This improvement in plasma exposure is due to improved lymphatic trafficking as evident from the increase in the fraction of dose trafficked through the lymph node in the presence of hypertonic buffers. The fraction of the dose trafficked through the lymphatic, as estimated by the model, increased from 0.05 % in isotonic buffer to 13% in hyper-tonic buffer containing NaCl to about 30% for hypertonic buffers containing high dose OPLS and mannitol. Our data suggests that hypertonic solutions may be a viable option to improve sc bioavailability. PMID:25377184

DITTY - a computer program for calculating population dose integrated over ten thousand years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Napier, B.A.; Peloquin, R.A.; Strenge, D.L.

The computer program DITTY (Dose Integrated Over Ten Thousand Years) was developed to determine the collective dose from long term nuclear waste disposal sites resulting from the ground-water pathways. DITTY estimates the time integral of collective dose over a ten-thousand-year period for time-variant radionuclide releases to surface waters, wells, or the atmosphere. This document includes the following information on DITTY: a description of the mathematical models, program designs, data file requirements, input preparation, output interpretations, sample problems, and program-generated diagnostic messages.

Evaluation of the radiological risks associated with the routine transport of radioactive material within Michigan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinman, Rebecca Lee

Radioactive materials play an important role in modern society. In addition to providing electrical power and supporting national defense, radioisotopes play significant roles in the fields of medicine, research, manufacturing, and industry. Since most of these materials are not manufactured or disposed of at the site where they are used, they must be transported between various processing, use, storage, and disposal facilities. This dissertation examines the mathematical model used to predict the collective dose to the population that resides along a potential transport route, commonly called the off-link dose. The currently accepted RADTRAN and RISKIND transient dose models are reviewed. Then three new individual transient dose models are derived by assuming that a point, line, or surface cylinder can approximate the actual transport package. Groundscatter effects were investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation of the surface cylinder model and found to contribute no more than 12% to the total individual dose from a passing shipment of radioactive material, thus not warranting explicit inclusion in the newly derived transient dose models. All five of the individual transient dose models were evaluated for representative shipments of spent nuclear fuel and low-level waste within the State of Michigan and compared to experimentally measured doses. The individual dose for the Michigan shipment scenarios was found to be on the order of 1 murem. Comparison to the experimental measurements revealed that RISKIND consistently predicts the best estimate of the measured dose, followed closely by the surface cylinder model. RADTRAN consistently over predicted the measured dose by at least a factor of two. Finally, the line dose model is integrated over strips of uniform population along the transport route to arrive at the collective off-link population dose. This off-link dose model was incorporated into an ArcView application using the Avenue scripting language. Then this script was used to investigate the off-link dose to Michigan residents for the previously mentioned representative transport scenarios. The off-link dose was found to be less than 3 person-rem for all of the scenarios investigated.

Model based estimates of long-term persistence of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine-induced antibodies in adults.

PubMed

Hens, Niel; Habteab Ghebretinsae, Aklilu; Hardt, Karin; Van Damme, Pierre; Van Herck, Koen

2014-03-14

In this paper, we review the results of existing statistical models of the long-term persistence of hepatitis A vaccine-induced antibodies in light of recently available immunogenicity data from 2 clinical trials (up to 17 years of follow-up). Healthy adult volunteers monitored annually for 17 years after the administration of the first vaccine dose in 2 double-blind, randomized clinical trials were included in this analysis. Vaccination in these studies was administered according to a 2-dose vaccination schedule: 0, 12 months in study A and 0, 6 months in study B (NCT00289757/NCT00291876). Antibodies were measured using an in-house ELISA during the first 11 years of follow-up; a commercially available ELISA was then used up to Year 17 of follow-up. Long-term antibody persistence from studies A and B was estimated using statistical models for longitudinal data. Data from studies A and B were modeled separately. A total of 173 participants in study A and 108 participants in study B were included in the analysis. A linear mixed model with 2 changepoints allowed all available results to be accounted for. Predictions based on this model indicated that 98% (95%CI: 94-100%) of participants in study A and 97% (95%CI: 94-100%) of participants in study B will remain seropositive 25 years after receiving the first vaccine dose. Other models using part of the data provided consistent results: ≥95% of the participants was projected to remain seropositive for ≥25 years. This analysis, using previously used and newly selected model structures, was consistent with former estimates of seropositivity rates ≥95% for at least 25 years. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC ( PBPK ) MODEL FOR METHYL TERTIARY BUTYL ETHER ( MTBE ): A REVIEW OF EXISTING MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

MTBE is a volatile organic compound used as an oxygenate additive to gasoline, added to comply with the 1990 Clean Air Act. Previous PBPK models for MTBE were reviewed and incorporated into the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) software. This model also included an e...

Dosimetric calculations for uranium miners for epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Marsh, J W; Blanchardon, E; Gregoratto, D; Hofmann, W; Karcher, K; Nosske, D; Tomásek, L

2012-05-01

Epidemiological studies on uranium miners are being carried out to quantify the risk of cancer based on organ dose calculations. Mathematical models have been applied to calculate the annual absorbed doses to regions of the lung, red bone marrow, liver, kidney and stomach for each individual miner arising from exposure to radon gas, radon progeny and long-lived radionuclides (LLR) present in the uranium ore dust and to external gamma radiation. The methodology and dosimetric models used to calculate these organ doses are described and the resulting doses for unit exposure to each source (radon gas, radon progeny and LLR) are presented. The results of dosimetric calculations for a typical German miner are also given. For this miner, the absorbed dose to the central regions of the lung is dominated by the dose arising from exposure to radon progeny, whereas the absorbed dose to the red bone marrow is dominated by the external gamma dose. The uncertainties in the absorbed dose to regions of the lung arising from unit exposure to radon progeny are also discussed. These dose estimates are being used in epidemiological studies of cancer in uranium miners.

[The methods of assessment of health risk from exposure to radon and radon daughters].

PubMed

Demin, V F; Zhukovskiy, M V; Kiselev, S M

2014-01-01

The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

Age- and gender-specific estimates of cumulative CT dose over 5 years using real radiation dose tracking data in children.

PubMed

Lee, Eunsol; Goo, Hyun Woo; Lee, Jae-Yeong

2015-08-01

It is necessary to develop a mechanism to estimate and analyze cumulative radiation risks from multiple CT exams in various clinical scenarios in children. To identify major contributors to high cumulative CT dose estimates using actual dose-length product values collected for 5 years in children. Between August 2006 and July 2011 we reviewed 26,937 CT exams in 13,803 children. Among them, we included 931 children (median age 3.5 years, age range 0 days-15 years; M:F = 533:398) who had 5,339 CT exams. Each child underwent at least three CT scans and had accessible radiation dose reports. Dose-length product values were automatically extracted from DICOM files and we used recently updated conversion factors for age, gender, anatomical region and tube voltage to estimate CT radiation dose. We tracked the calculated CT dose estimates to obtain a 5-year cumulative value for each child. The study population was divided into three groups according to the cumulative CT dose estimates: high, ≥30 mSv; moderate, 10-30 mSv; and low, <10 mSv. We reviewed clinical data and CT protocols to identify major contributors to high and moderate cumulative CT dose estimates. Median cumulative CT dose estimate was 5.4 mSv (range 0.5-71.1 mSv), and median number of CT scans was 4 (range 3-36). High cumulative CT dose estimates were most common in children with malignant tumors (57.9%, 11/19). High frequency of CT scans was attributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates in children with ventriculoperitoneal shunt (35 in 1 child) and malignant tumors (range 18-49). Moreover, high-dose CT protocols, such as multiphase abdomen CT (median 4.7 mSv) contributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates even in children with a low number of CT scans. Disease group, number of CT scans, and high-dose CT protocols are major contributors to higher cumulative CT dose estimates in children.

Application of a semi-empirical model for the evaluation of transmission properties of barite mortar.

PubMed

Santos, Josilene C; Tomal, Alessandra; Mariano, Leandro; Costa, Paulo R

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to estimate barite mortar attenuation curves using X-ray spectra weighted by a workload distribution. A semi-empirical model was used for the evaluation of transmission properties of this material. Since ambient dose equivalent, H(⁎)(10), is the radiation quantity adopted by IAEA for dose assessment, the variation of the H(⁎)(10) as a function of barite mortar thickness was calculated using primary experimental spectra. A CdTe detector was used for the measurement of these spectra. The resulting spectra were adopted for estimating the optimized thickness of protective barrier needed for shielding an area in an X-ray imaging facility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dose assessment in environmental radiological protection: State of the art and perspectives.

PubMed

Stark, Karolina; Goméz-Ros, José M; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Lindbo Hansen, Elisabeth; Beaugelin-Seiller, Karine; Kapustka, Lawrence A; Wood, Michael D; Bradshaw, Clare; Real, Almudena; McGuire, Corynne; Hinton, Thomas G

2017-09-01

Exposure to radiation is a potential hazard to humans and the environment. The Fukushima accident reminded the world of the importance of a reliable risk management system that incorporates the dose received from radiation exposures. The dose to humans from exposure to radiation can be quantified using a well-defined system; its environmental equivalent, however, is still in a developmental state. Additionally, the results of several papers published over the last decade have been criticized because of poor dosimetry. Therefore, a workshop on environmental dosimetry was organized by the STAR (Strategy for Allied Radioecology) Network of Excellence to review the state of the art in environmental dosimetry and prioritize areas of methodological and guidance development. Herein, we report the key findings from that international workshop, summarise parameters that affect the dose animals and plants receive when exposed to radiation, and identify further research needs. Current dosimetry practices for determining environmental protection are based on simple screening dose assessments using knowledge of fundamental radiation physics, source-target geometry relationships, the influence of organism shape and size, and knowledge of how radionuclide distributions in the body and in the soil profile alter dose. In screening model calculations that estimate whole-body dose to biota the shapes of organisms are simply represented as ellipsoids, while recently developed complex voxel phantom models allow organ-specific dose estimates. We identified several research and guidance development priorities for dosimetry. For external exposures, the uncertainty in dose estimates due to spatially heterogeneous distributions of radionuclide contamination is currently being evaluated. Guidance is needed on the level of dosimetry that is required when screening benchmarks are exceeded and how to report exposure in dose-effect studies, including quantification of uncertainties. Further research is needed to establish whether and how dosimetry should account for differences in tissue physiology, organism life stages, seasonal variability (in ecology, physiology and radiation field), species life span, and the proportion of a population that is actually exposed. We contend that, although major advances have recently been made in environmental radiation protection, substantive improvements are required to reduce uncertainties and increase the reliability of environmental dosimetry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new biostimulation approach based on the concept of remaining P for soil bioremediation.

PubMed

Júlio, Aline Daniela Lopes; Fernandes, Rita de Cássia Rocha; Costa, Maurício Dutra; Neves, Júlio César Lima; Rodrigues, Edmo Montes; Tótola, Marcos Rogério

2018-02-01

C:N:P ratio is generally adopted to estimate the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus to be added to soils to accelerate biodegradation of organic contaminants. However, differences in P fixation among soils lead to varying amounts of available P when a specific dose of the element is applied to different soils. Thus, the application of fertilizers to achieve a previously established C:P ratio leads to biodegradation rates that can be lower than the theoretical maximum. In this study, we developed an equation to estimate the dose of P required to maximize organic contaminant biodegradation in soils as a function of remaining P (P-rem), using diesel as a model contaminant. The soils were contaminated with diesel and received six doses of P. CO 2 emission was used to estimate biodegradation of hydrocarbons. Biodegradation increased with P doses. The P level that provided the highest hydrocarbon biodegradation rate showed linear and negative correlation with P-rem. The result shows that the requirement for P decreases as the P-rem of the soil increases (or the P-fixing capacity decreases). The dose of P recommended to maximize hydrocarbon biodegradation rate in soil can be estimated by the formula P (mg/dm 3 ) = 436.5-5.39 × P-rem (mg/L). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient-specific dose estimation for pediatric abdomen-pelvis CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2009-02-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a method for estimating patient-specific dose from abdomen-pelvis CT examinations and to investigate dose variation across patients in the same weight group. Our study consisted of seven pediatric patients in the same weight/protocol group, for whom full-body computer models were previously created based on the patients' CT data obtained for clinical indications. Organ and effective dose of these patients from an abdomen-pelvis scan protocol (LightSpeed VCT scanner, 120-kVp, 85-90 mA, 0.4-s gantry rotation period, 1.375-pitch, 40-mm beam collimation, and small body scan field-of-view) was calculated using a Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for the same CT system. The seven patients had effective dose of 2.4-2.8 mSv, corresponding to normalized effective dose of 6.6-8.3 mSv/100mAs (coefficient of variation: 7.6%). Dose variations across the patients were small for large organs in the scan coverage (mean: 6.6%; range: 4.9%-9.2%), larger for small organs in the scan coverage (mean: 10.3%; range: 1.4%-15.6%), and the largest for organs partially or completely outside the scan coverage (mean: 14.8%; range: 5.7%-27.7%). Normalized effective dose correlated strongly with body weight (correlation coefficient: r = -0.94). Normalized dose to the kidney and the adrenal gland correlated strongly with mid-liver equivalent diameter (kidney: r = -0.97; adrenal glands: r = -0.98). Normalized dose to the small intestine correlated strongly with mid-intestine equivalent diameter (r = -0.97). These strong correlations suggest that patient-specific dose may be estimated for any other child in the same size group who undergoes the abdomen-pelvis scan.

Do we need 3D tube current modulation information for accurate organ dosimetry in chest CT? Protocols dose comparisons.

PubMed

Lopez-Rendon, Xochitl; Zhang, Guozhi; Coudyzer, Walter; Develter, Wim; Bosmans, Hilde; Zanca, Federica

2017-11-01

To compare the lung and breast dose associated with three chest protocols: standard, organ-based tube current modulation (OBTCM) and fast-speed scanning; and to estimate the error associated with organ dose when modelling the longitudinal (z-) TCM versus the 3D-TCM in Monte Carlo simulations (MC) for these three protocols. Five adult and three paediatric cadavers with different BMI were scanned. The CTDI vol of the OBTCM and the fast-speed protocols were matched to the patient-specific CTDI vol of the standard protocol. Lung and breast doses were estimated using MC with both z- and 3D-TCM simulated and compared between protocols. The fast-speed scanning protocol delivered the highest doses. A slight reduction for breast dose (up to 5.1%) was observed for two of the three female cadavers with the OBTCM in comparison to the standard. For both adult and paediatric, the implementation of the z-TCM data only for organ dose estimation resulted in 10.0% accuracy for the standard and fast-speed protocols, while relative dose differences were up to 15.3% for the OBTCM protocol. At identical CTDI vol values, the standard protocol delivered the lowest overall doses. Only for the OBTCM protocol is the 3D-TCM needed if an accurate (<10.0%) organ dosimetry is desired. • The z-TCM information is sufficient for accurate dosimetry for standard protocols. • The z-TCM information is sufficient for accurate dosimetry for fast-speed scanning protocols. • For organ-based TCM schemes, the 3D-TCM information is necessary for accurate dosimetry. • At identical CTDI vol , the fast-speed scanning protocol delivered the highest doses. • Lung dose was higher in XCare than standard protocol at identical CTDI vol .

New Insights to Compare and Choose TKTD Models for Survival Based on an Interlaboratory Study for Lymnaea stagnalis Exposed to Cd.

PubMed

Baudrot, Virgile; Preux, Sara; Ducrot, Virginie; Pave, Alain; Charles, Sandrine

2018-02-06

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models, as the General Unified Threshold model of Survival (GUTS), provide a consistent process-based framework compared to classical dose-response models to analyze both time and concentration-dependent data sets. However, the extent to which GUTS models (Stochastic Death (SD) and Individual Tolerance (IT)) lead to a better fitting than classical dose-response model at a given target time (TT) has poorly been investigated. Our paper highlights that GUTS estimates are generally more conservative and have a reduced uncertainty through smaller credible intervals for the studied data sets than classical TT approaches. Also, GUTS models enable estimating any x% lethal concentration at any time (LC x,t ), and provide biological information on the internal processes occurring during the experiments. While both GUTS-SD and GUTS-IT models outcompete classical TT approaches, choosing one preferentially to the other is still challenging. Indeed, the estimates of survival rate over time and LC x,t are very close between both models, but our study also points out that the joint posterior distributions of SD model parameters are sometimes bimodal, while two parameters of the IT model seems strongly correlated. Therefore, the selection between these two models has to be supported by the experimental design and the biological objectives, and this paper provides some insights to drive this choice.

Modeling Of In-Vehicle Human Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaozhen; Frey, H. Christopher

2012-01-01

A method for estimating in-vehicle PM2.5 exposure as part of a scenario-based population simulation model is developed and assessed. In existing models, such as the Stochastic Exposure and Dose Simulation model for Particulate Matter (SHEDS-PM), in-vehicle exposure is estimated using linear regression based on area-wide ambient PM2.5 concentration. An alternative modeling approach is explored based on estimation of near-road PM2.5 concentration and an in-vehicle mass balance. Near-road PM2.5 concentration is estimated using a dispersion model and fixed site monitor (FSM) data. In-vehicle concentration is estimated based on air exchange rate and filter efficiency. In-vehicle concentration varies with road type, traffic flow, windspeed, stability class, and ventilation. Average in-vehicle exposure is estimated to contribute 10 to 20 percent of average daily exposure. The contribution of in-vehicle exposure to total daily exposure can be higher for some individuals. Recommendations are made for updating exposure models and implementation of the alternative approach. PMID:23101000

SU-F-P-19: Fetal Dose Estimate for a High-Dose Fluoroscopy Guided Intervention Using Modern Data Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moirano, J

Purpose: An accurate dose estimate is necessary for effective patient management after a fetal exposure. In the case of a high-dose exposure, it is critical to use all resources available in order to make the most accurate assessment of the fetal dose. This work will demonstrate a methodology for accurate fetal dose estimation using tools that have recently become available in many clinics, and show examples of best practices for collecting data and performing the fetal dose calculation. Methods: A fetal dose estimate calculation was performed using modern data collection tools to determine parameters for the calculation. The reference pointmore » air kerma as displayed by the fluoroscopic system was checked for accuracy. A cumulative dose incidence map and DICOM header mining were used to determine the displayed reference point air kerma. Corrections for attenuation caused by the patient table and pad were measured and applied in order to determine the peak skin dose. The position and depth of the fetus was determined by ultrasound imaging and consultation with a radiologist. The data collected was used to determine a normalized uterus dose from Monte Carlo simulation data. Fetal dose values from this process were compared to other accepted calculation methods. Results: An accurate high-dose fetal dose estimate was made. Comparison to accepted legacy methods were were within 35% of estimated values. Conclusion: Modern data collection and reporting methods ease the process for estimation of fetal dose from interventional fluoroscopy exposures. Many aspects of the calculation can now be quantified rather than estimated, which should allow for a more accurate estimation of fetal dose.« less

Physically-based biodosimetry using in vivo EPR of teeth in patients undergoing total body irradiation

PubMed Central

Williams, Benjamin B.; Dong, Ruhong; Nicolalde, Roberto J.; Matthews, Thomas P.; Gladstone, David J.; Demidenko, Eugene; Zaki, Bassem I.; Salikhov, Ildar K.; Lesniewski, Piotr N.; Swartz, Harold M.

2014-01-01

Purpose The ability to estimate individual exposures to radiation following a large attack or incident has been identified as a necessity for rational and effective emergency medical response. In vivo electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy of tooth enamel has been developed to meet this need. Materials and methods A novel transportable EPR spectrometer, developed to facilitate tooth dosimetry in an emergency response setting, was used to measure upper incisors in a model system, in unirradiated subjects, and in patients who had received total body doses of 2 Gy. Results A linear dose response was observed in the model system. A statistically significant increase in the intensity of the radiation-induced EPR signal was observed in irradiated versus unirradiated subjects, with an estimated standard error of dose prediction of 0.9 + 0.3 Gy. Conclusions These results demonstrate the current ability of in vivo EPR tooth dosimetry to distinguish between subjects who have not been irradiated and those who have received exposures that place them at risk for acute radiation syndrome. Procedural and technical developments to further increase the precision of dose estimation and ensure reliable operation in the emergency setting are underway. With these developments EPR tooth dosimetry is likely to be a valuable resource for triage following potential radiation exposure of a large population. PMID:21696339

A reevaluation of cancer incidence near the Three Mile Island nuclear plant: the collision of evidence and assumptions.

PubMed

Wing, S; Richardson, D; Armstrong, D; Crawford-Brown, D

1997-01-01

Previous studies concluded that there was no evidence that the 1979 nuclear accident at Three Mile Island (TMI) affected cancer incidence in the surrounding area; however, there were logical and methodological problems in earlier reports that led us to reconsider data previously collected. A 10-mile area around TMI was divided into 69 study tracts, which were assigned radiation dose estimates based on radiation reading and models of atmospheric dispersion. Incident cancers from 1975 to 1985 were ascertained from hospital records and assigned to study tracts. Associations between accident doses and incidence rates of leukemia, lung cancer, and all cancer were assessed using relative dose estimates calculated by the earlier investigators. Adjustments were made for age, sex, socioeconomic characteristics, and preaccident variation in incidence. Considering a 2-year latency, the estimated percent increase per dose unit +/- standard error was 0.020 +/- 0.012 for all cancer, 0.082 +/- 0.032 for lung cancer, and 0.116 +/- 0.067 for leukemia. Adjustment for socioeconomic variables increased the estimates to 0.034 +/- 0.013, 0.103 +/- 0.035, and 0.139 +/- 0.073 for all cancer, lung cancer, and leukemia, respectively. Associations were generally larger considering a 5-year latency, but were based on smaller numbers of cases. Results support the hypothesis that radiation doses are related to increased cancer incidence around TMI. The analysis avoids medical detection bias, but suffers from inaccurate dose classification; therefore, results may underestimate the magnitude of the association between radiation and cancer incidence. These associations would not be expected, based on previous estimates of near-background levels of radiation exposure following the accident.

Quantitative simulation of intracellular signaling cascades in a Virtual Liver: estimating dose dependent changes in hepatocellular proliferation and apoptosis

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA Virtual Liver (v-Liver™) is developing an approach to predict dose-dependent hepatotoxicity as an in vivo tissue level response using in vitro data. The v-Liver accomplishes this using an in silico agent-based systems model that dynamically integrates environmental exp...

Quantitative microbial risk assessment model for Legionnaires' disease: assessment of human exposures for selected spa outbreaks.

PubMed

Armstrong, Thomas W; Haas, Charles N

2007-08-01

Evaluation of a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Legionnaires' disease (LD) required Legionella exposure estimates for several well-documented LD outbreaks. Reports for a whirlpool spa and two natural spring spa outbreaks provided data for the exposure assessment, as well as rates of infection and mortality. Exposure estimates for the whirlpool spa outbreak employed aerosol generation, water composition, exposure duration data, and building ventilation parameters with a two-zone model. Estimates for the natural hot springs outbreaks used bacterial water to air partitioning coefficients and exposure duration information. The air concentration and dose calculations used input parameter distributions with Monte Carlo simulations to estimate exposures as probability distributions. The assessment considered two sets of assumptions about the transfer of Legionella from the water phase to the aerosol emitted from the whirlpool spa. The estimated air concentration near the whirlpool spa was 5 to 18 colony forming units per cubic meter (CFU/m(3)) and 50 to 180 CFU/m(3) for each of the alternate assumptions. The estimated 95th percentile ranges of Legionella dose for workers within 15 m of the whirlpool spa were 0.13-3.4 CFU and 1.3-34.5 CFU, respectively. The modeling for hot springs Spas 1 and 2 resulted in estimated arithmetic mean air concentrations of 360 and 17 CFU/m(3), respectively, and 95 percentile ranges for Legionella dose of 28 to 67 CFU and 1.1 to 3.7 CFU, respectively. The Legionella air concentration estimates fall in the range of limited reports on air concentrations of Legionella (0.33 to 190 CFU/m(3)) near showers, aerated faucets, and baths during filling with Legionella-contaminated water. These measurements may provide some indication that the estimates are of a reasonable magnitude, but they do not clarify the exposure estimates accuracy, since they were not obtained during LD outbreaks. Further research to improve the data used for the Legionella exposure assessment would strengthen the results. Several of the primary additional data needs include improved data for bacterial water to air partitioning coefficients, better accounting of time-activity-distance patterns and exposure potential in outbreak reports, and data for Legionella-containing aerosol viability decay instead of loss of capability for growth in culture.

Multiple-Objective Optimal Designs for Studying the Dose Response Function and Interesting Dose Levels

PubMed Central

Hyun, Seung Won; Wong, Weng Kee

2016-01-01

We construct an optimal design to simultaneously estimate three common interesting features in a dose-finding trial with possibly different emphasis on each feature. These features are (1) the shape of the dose-response curve, (2) the median effective dose and (3) the minimum effective dose level. A main difficulty of this task is that an optimal design for a single objective may not perform well for other objectives. There are optimal designs for dual objectives in the literature but we were unable to find optimal designs for 3 or more objectives to date with a concrete application. A reason for this is that the approach for finding a dual-objective optimal design does not work well for a 3 or more multiple-objective design problem. We propose a method for finding multiple-objective optimal designs that estimate the three features with user-specified higher efficiencies for the more important objectives. We use the flexible 4-parameter logistic model to illustrate the methodology but our approach is applicable to find multiple-objective optimal designs for other types of objectives and models. We also investigate robustness properties of multiple-objective optimal designs to mis-specification in the nominal parameter values and to a variation in the optimality criterion. We also provide computer code for generating tailor made multiple-objective optimal designs. PMID:26565557

Multiple-Objective Optimal Designs for Studying the Dose Response Function and Interesting Dose Levels.

PubMed

Hyun, Seung Won; Wong, Weng Kee

2015-11-01

We construct an optimal design to simultaneously estimate three common interesting features in a dose-finding trial with possibly different emphasis on each feature. These features are (1) the shape of the dose-response curve, (2) the median effective dose and (3) the minimum effective dose level. A main difficulty of this task is that an optimal design for a single objective may not perform well for other objectives. There are optimal designs for dual objectives in the literature but we were unable to find optimal designs for 3 or more objectives to date with a concrete application. A reason for this is that the approach for finding a dual-objective optimal design does not work well for a 3 or more multiple-objective design problem. We propose a method for finding multiple-objective optimal designs that estimate the three features with user-specified higher efficiencies for the more important objectives. We use the flexible 4-parameter logistic model to illustrate the methodology but our approach is applicable to find multiple-objective optimal designs for other types of objectives and models. We also investigate robustness properties of multiple-objective optimal designs to mis-specification in the nominal parameter values and to a variation in the optimality criterion. We also provide computer code for generating tailor made multiple-objective optimal designs.

A Geant4 model of backscatter security imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leboffe, Eric Matthew

The operating characteristics of x ray security scanner systems that utilize backscatter signal in order to distinguish person borne threats have never been made fully available to the general public. By designing a model using Geant4, studies can be performed which will shed light on systems such as security scanners and allow for analysis of the performance and safety of the system without access to any system data. Despite the fact that the systems are no longer in use at airports in the United States, the ability to design and validate detector models and phenomena is an important capability that can be applied to many current real world applications. The model presented provides estimates for absorbed dose, effective dose and dose depth distribution that are comparable to previously published work and explores imaging capabilities for the system embodiment modeled.

Instrumentation for investigation of the depth-dose distribution by the Liulin-5 instrument of a human phantom on the Russian segment of ISS for estimation of the radiation risk during long term space flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semkova, J.; Koleva, R.; Todorova, G.; Kanchev, N.; Petrov, V.; Shurshakov, V.; Tchhernykh, I.; Kireeva, S.

2004-01-01

Described is the Liulin-5 experiment and instrumentation, developed for investigation of the space radiation doses depth distribution in a human phantom on the Russian Segment of the International Space Station (ISS). Liulin-5 experiment is a part of the international project MATROSHKA-R on ISS. The experiment MATROSHKA-R is aimed to study the depth dose distribution at the sites of critical organs of the human body, using models of human body-anthropomorphic and spherical tissue-equivalent phantoms. The aim of Liulin-5 experiment is long term (4-5 years) investigation of the radiation environment dynamics inside the spherical tissue-equivalent phantom, mounted in different places of the Russian Segment of ISS. Energy deposition spectra, linear energy transfer spectra, flux and dose rates for protons and the biologically-relevant heavy ion components of the galactic cosmic radiation will be measured simultaneously with near real time resolution at different depths of the phantom by a telescope of silicon detectors. Data obtained together with data from other active and passive dosimeters will be used to estimate the radiation risk to the crewmembers, verify the models of radiation environment in low Earth orbit, validate body transport model and correlate organ level dose to skin dose. Presented are the test results of the prototype unit. The spherical phantom will be flown on the ISS in 2004 year and Liulin-5 experiment is planned for 2005 year. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient characteristics associated with differences in radiation exposure from pediatric abdomen-pelvis CT scans: a quantile regression analysis.

PubMed

Cooper, Jennifer N; Lodwick, Daniel L; Adler, Brent; Lee, Choonsik; Minneci, Peter C; Deans, Katherine J

2017-06-01

Computed tomography (CT) is a widely used diagnostic tool in pediatric medicine. However, due to concerns regarding radiation exposure, it is essential to identify patient characteristics associated with higher radiation burden from CT imaging, in order to more effectively target efforts towards dose reduction. Our objective was to identify the effects of various demographic and clinical patient characteristics on radiation exposure from single abdomen/pelvis CT scans in children. CT scans performed at our institution between January 2013 and August 2015 in patients under 16 years of age were processed using a software tool that estimates patient-specific organ and effective doses and merges these estimates with data from the electronic health record and billing record. Quantile regression models at the 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles were used to estimate the effects of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics on effective dose. 2390 abdomen/pelvis CT scans (median effective dose 1.52mSv) were included. Of all characteristics examined, only older age, female gender, higher BMI, and whether the scan was a multiphase exam or an exam that required repeating for movement were significant predictors of higher effective dose at each quantile examined (all p<0.05). The effects of obesity and multiphase or repeat scanning on effective dose were magnified in higher dose scans. Older age, female gender, obesity, and multiphase or repeat scanning are all associated with increased effective dose from abdomen/pelvis CT. Targeted efforts to reduce dose from abdominal CT in these groups should be undertaken. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Simulation for Estimating the Influence of Renal Dysfunction on the Hypouricemic Effect of Febuxostat in Hyperuricemic Patients Due to Overproduction or Underexcretion of Uric Acid.

PubMed

Hirai, Toshinori; Kimura, Toshimi; Echizen, Hirotoshi

2016-01-01

Whether renal dysfunction influences the hypouricemic effect of febuxostat, a xanthine oxidase (XO) inhibitor, in patients with hyperuricemia due to overproduction or underexcretion of uric acid (UA) remains unclear. We aimed to address this question with a modeling and simulation approach. The pharmacokinetics (PK) of febuxostat were analyzed using data from the literature. A kinetic model of UA was retrieved from a previous human study. Renal UA clearance was estimated as a function of creatinine clearance (CLcr) but non-renal UA clearance was assumed constant. A reversible inhibition model for bovine XO was adopted. Integrating these kinetic formulas, we developed a PK-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model for estimating the time course of the hypouricemic effect of febuxostat as a function of baseline UA level, febuxostat dose, treatment duration, body weight, and CLcr. Using the Monte Carlo simulation method, we examined the performance of the model by comparing predicted UA levels with those reported in the literature. We also modified the models for application to hyperuricemia due to UA overproduction or underexcretion. Thirty-nine data sets comprising 735 volunteers or patients were retrieved from the literature. A good correlation was observed between the hypouricemic effects of febuxostat estimated by our PK-PD model and those reported in the articles (observed) (r=0.89, p<0.001). The hypouricemic effect was estimated to be augmented in patients with renal dysfunction irrespective of the etiology of hyperuricemia. While validation in clinical studies is needed, the modeling and simulation approach may be useful for individualizing febuxostat doses in patients with various clinical characteristics.

Around Semipalatinsk nuclear test site: progress of dose estimations relevant to the consequences of nuclear tests (a summary of 3rd Dosimetry Workshop on the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site area, RIRBM, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, 9-11 of March, 2005).

PubMed

Stepanenko, Valeriy F; Hoshi, Masaharu; Bailiff, Ian K; Ivannikov, Alexander I; Toyoda, Shin; Yamamoto, Masayoshi; Simon, Steven L; Matsuo, Masatsugu; Kawano, Noriyuki; Zhumadilov, Zhaxybay; Sasaki, Masao S; Rosenson, Rafail I; Apsalikov, Kazbek N

2006-02-01

The paper is an analytical overview of the main results presented at the 3rd Dosimetry Workshop in Hiroshima(9-11 of March 2005), where different aspects of the dose reconstruction around the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site(SNTS) were discussed and summarized. The results of the international intercomparison of the retrospective luminescence dosimetry(RLD) method for Dolon' village(Kazakhstan) were presented at the Workshop and good concurrence between dose estimations by different laboratories from 6 countries (Japan, Russia, USA, Germany, Finland and UK) was pointed out. The accumulated dose values in brick for a common depth of 10mm depth obtained independently by all participating laboratories were in good agreement for all four brick samples from Dolon' village, Kazakhstan, with the average value of the local gamma dose due to fallout (near the sampling locations) being about 220 mGy(background dose has been subtracted).Furthermore, using a conversion factor of about 2 to obtain the free-in-air dose, a value of local dose approximately 440 mGy is obtained, which supports the results of external dose calculations for Dolon': recently published soil contamination data, archive information and new models were used for refining dose calculations and the external dose in air for Dolon village was estimated to be about 500 mGy. The results of electron spin resonance(ESR) dosimetry with tooth enamel have demonstrated the notable progress in application of ESR dosimetry to the problems of dose reconstruction around the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site. At the present moment, dose estimates by the ESR method have become more consistent with calculated values and with retrospective luminescence dosimetry data, but differences between ESR dose estimates and RLD/calculation data were noted. For example mean ESR dose for eligible tooth samples from Dolon' village was estimated to be about 140 mGy(above background dose), which is less than dose values obtained by RLD and calculations. A possible explanation of the differences between ESR and RLD/calculations doses is the following: for interpretation of ESR data the "shielding and behaviour" factors for investigated persons should be taken into account. The "upper level" of the combination of "shielding and behaviour" factors of dose reduction for inhabitants of Dolon' village of about 0.28 was obtained by comparing the individual ESR tooth enamel dose estimates with the calculated mean dose for this settlement. The biological dosimetry data related to the settlements near SNTS were presented at the Workshop. A higher incidence of unstable chromosome aberrations, micronucleus in lymphocytes, nuclear abnormalities of thyroid follicular cells, T-cell receptor mutations in peripheral blood were found for exposed areas (Dolon', Sarjal) in comparison with unexposed ones(Kokpekty). The significant greater frequency of stable translocations (results of analyses of chromosome aberrations in lymphocytes by the FISH technique) was demonstrated for Dolon' village in comparison with Chekoman(unexposed village). The elevated level of stable translocations in Dolon' corresponds to a dose of about 180 mSv, which is close to the results of ESR dosimetry for this village. The importance of investigating specific morphological types of thyroid nodules for thyroid dosimetry studies was pointed out. In general the 3rd Dosimetry Workshop has demonstrated remarkable progress in developing an international level of common approaches for retrospective dose estimations around the SNTS and in understanding the tasks for the future joint work in this direction. In the framework of a special session the problems of developing a database and registry in order to support epidemiological studies around SNTS were discussed. The results of investigation of psychological consequences of nuclear tests, which are expressed in the form of verbal behaviour, were presented at this session as well.

Pion and electromagnetic contribution to dose: Comparisons of HZETRN to Monte Carlo results and ISS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaba, Tony C.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Reddell, Brandon; Bahadori, Amir; Norman, Ryan B.; Badavi, Francis F.

2013-07-01

Recent work has indicated that pion production and the associated electromagnetic (EM) cascade may be an important contribution to the total astronaut exposure in space. Recent extensions to the deterministic space radiation transport code, HZETRN, allow the production and transport of pions, muons, electrons, positrons, and photons. In this paper, the extended code is compared to the Monte Carlo codes, Geant4, PHITS, and FLUKA, in slab geometries exposed to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) boundary conditions. While improvements in the HZETRN transport formalism for the new particles are needed, it is shown that reasonable agreement on dose is found at larger shielding thicknesses commonly found on the International Space Station (ISS). Finally, the extended code is compared to ISS data on a minute-by-minute basis over a seven day period in 2001. The impact of pion/EM production on exposure estimates and validation results is clearly shown. The Badhwar-O'Neill (BO) 2004 and 2010 models are used to generate the GCR boundary condition at each time-step allowing the impact of environmental model improvements on validation results to be quantified as well. It is found that the updated BO2010 model noticeably reduces overall exposure estimates from the BO2004 model, and the additional production mechanisms in HZETRN provide some compensation. It is shown that the overestimates provided by the BO2004 GCR model in previous validation studies led to deflated uncertainty estimates for environmental, physics, and transport models, and allowed an important physical interaction (π/EM) to be overlooked in model development. Despite the additional π/EM production mechanisms in HZETRN, a systematic under-prediction of total dose is observed in comparison to Monte Carlo results and measured data.

Cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer: an estimate using the Population Health Model lung cancer module.

PubMed

Evans, W K

1997-04-01

Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada) is in the process of developing the Population Health Model to simulate the health and common illnesses of Canadians. The Population Health Model incorporates a lung cancer module that is based on contemporary Canadian practice. This microsimulation model can be used to estimate the total direct care costs of treating all lung cancer cases diagnosed in Canada and to evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of new therapeutic interventions as they are introduced into practice. Gemcitabine, a new nucleoside analogue with a broad spectrum of antitumor activity, is about to be introduced on the Canadian market. The Population Health Model has been used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine in the management of lung cancer over a range of drug doses per treatment cycle starting at 1,000 mg/m2 weekly x 3, as well as potential survival benefits. The survival of stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated on an international trial of gemcitabine (EO-18) was used to estimate the potential survival gain relative to the survival of stage IV NSCLC patients managed with best supportive care on a randomized trial conducted by the National Cancer Institute of Canada (BR 5). Sensitivity analyses were performed assuming that the survival gain was 25% or 50% less than that reported in the EO-18 trial. The perspective of the economic analysis is that of the government as payer in a universal health care system, and all costs are expressed in 1993 Canadian dollars. Based on the apparent survival advantage of the EO-18 trial in comparison to best supportive care, the cost per life-year gained ranged from $632 to $9,285, depending on the dose per treatment cycle. At the highest dose per cycle (2,000 mg/m2) and with survival reduced by 50% as compared with the EO-18 result, the cost per life-year gained was estimated to be $17,390. From these estimates of direct care costs in the Canadian health care system, gemcitabine appears to be a cost-effective intervention for advanced NSCLC.

AN INDOOR PESTICIDE AIR AND SURFACE CONCENTRATION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A thorough assessment of human exposure to environmental chemicals requires consideration of all processes in the sequence from source to dose. For assessment of exposure to pesticides following their use indoors, data and models are needed to estimate pesticide concentrations...

Development and application of a complex numerical model and software for the computation of dose conversion factors for radon progenies.

PubMed

Farkas, Árpád; Balásházy, Imre

2015-04-01

A more exact determination of dose conversion factors associated with radon progeny inhalation was possible due to the advancements in epidemiological health risk estimates in the last years. The enhancement of computational power and the development of numerical techniques allow computing dose conversion factors with increasing reliability. The objective of this study was to develop an integrated model and software based on a self-developed airway deposition code, an own bronchial dosimetry model and the computational methods accepted by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to calculate dose conversion coefficients for different exposure conditions. The model was tested by its application for exposure and breathing conditions characteristic of mines and homes. The dose conversion factors were 8 and 16 mSv WLM(-1) for homes and mines when applying a stochastic deposition model combined with the ICRP dosimetry model (named PM-A model), and 9 and 17 mSv WLM(-1) when applying the same deposition model combined with authors' bronchial dosimetry model and the ICRP bronchiolar and alveolar-interstitial dosimetry model (called PM-B model). User friendly software for the computation of dose conversion factors has also been developed. The software allows one to compute conversion factors for a large range of exposure and breathing parameters and to perform sensitivity analyses. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of TGF for aircrew dosimetry: analysis of continuous onboard measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trompier, Francois; Fuller, Nicolas; Bonnotte, Frank; Desmaris, Gérard; Musso, Angelica; Cale, Eric; Bottollier-Depois, Jean-François

2014-05-01

The actual assessment of the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation is performed in routine by software based on the crossing of route flight data with dose rate maps of the atmosphere obtained by simulation or elaborated with model based on measured data. In addition of the galactic component, some of these softwares take into account also the possible increase of dose from solar flares. In several publications, terrestrial gamma-rays flashes (TGF) are also investigated as a possible source of exposure of aircrew. Up to now, the evaluation of the impact of TGF in terms of dose onboard aircraft has been performed only by calculation. According to these publications, if the airplane is located in or near the high-field region during the lightning discharge, doses could reach the order of 100 of mSv, which far exceed the annual dose limit for workers (1). To our knowledge, no measured data has been yet reported for such phenomena that could confirm or not the order of magnitude of dose from TGF or the frequency or the probability of occurrence of such phenomena. To investigate further the TGF effect, it is recommended to perform measurements onboard airplanes. Since the beginning of 2013, the Institute of Radiation Protection and nuclear Safety (IRSN) in cooperation with Air France is running a campaign of continuous measurements with active devices aiming to measure effect on dose rate of solar flare. These measurements are used to improve models used to estimate the doses from Ground Level Event (GLE). In addition, passive dosimeters were historically installed in Air France airplanes and read out every three months constituting a very large database of dose measurements. All these data will be analyzed to better characterize the possible influence on dose from TGF. The statistical analysis of these data offers the possibility to estimate the order of magnitude of possible additional doses to aircrew due to TGF and/or to evaluate the probability of occurrence of TGF events impacting significantly the exposure of aircrew. (1) J. R. Dwyer et al. Estimation of the fluence of high-energy electron bursts produced by thunderclouds and the resulting radiation doses received in aircraft JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, D09206, 10 PP., 2010, doi:10.1029/2009JD012039

Joint nonparametric correction estimator for excess relative risk regression in survival analysis with exposure measurement error

PubMed Central

Wang, Ching-Yun; Cullings, Harry; Song, Xiao; Kopecky, Kenneth J.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Observational epidemiological studies often confront the problem of estimating exposure-disease relationships when the exposure is not measured exactly. In the paper, we investigate exposure measurement error in excess relative risk regression, which is a widely used model in radiation exposure effect research. In the study cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies a generalized version of the classical additive measurement error model, but it may or may not have repeated measurements. In addition, an instrumental variable is available for individuals in a subset of the whole cohort. We develop a nonparametric correction (NPC) estimator using data from the subcohort, and further propose a joint nonparametric correction (JNPC) estimator using all observed data to adjust for exposure measurement error. An optimal linear combination estimator of JNPC and NPC is further developed. The proposed estimators are nonparametric, which are consistent without imposing a covariate or error distribution, and are robust to heteroscedastic errors. Finite sample performance is examined via a simulation study. We apply the developed methods to data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, in which chromosome aberration is used to adjust for the effects of radiation dose measurement error on the estimation of radiation dose responses. PMID:29354018

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dourson, M.L.

The quantitative procedures associated with noncancer risk assessment include reference dose (RfD), benchmark dose, and severity modeling. The RfD, which is part of the EPA risk assessment guidelines, is an estimation of a level that is likely to be without any health risk to sensitive individuals. The RfD requires two major judgments: the first is choice of a critical effect(s) and its No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL); the second judgment is choice of an uncertainty factor. This paper discusses major assumptions and limitations of the RfD model.

Low dose dynamic myocardial CT perfusion using advanced iterative reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eck, Brendan L.; Fahmi, Rachid; Fuqua, Christopher; Vembar, Mani; Dhanantwari, Amar; Bezerra, Hiram G.; Wilson, David L.

2015-03-01

Dynamic myocardial CT perfusion (CTP) can provide quantitative functional information for the assessment of coronary artery disease. However, x-ray dose in dynamic CTP is high, typically from 10mSv to >20mSv. We compared the dose reduction potential of advanced iterative reconstruction, Iterative Model Reconstruction (IMR, Philips Healthcare, Cleveland, Ohio) to hybrid iterative reconstruction (iDose4) and filtered back projection (FBP). Dynamic CTP scans were obtained using a porcine model with balloon-induced ischemia in the left anterior descending coronary artery to prescribed fractional flow reserve values. High dose dynamic CTP scans were acquired at 100kVp/100mAs with effective dose of 23mSv. Low dose scans at 75mAs, 50mAs, and 25mAs were simulated by adding x-ray quantum noise and detector electronic noise to the projection space data. Images were reconstructed with FBP, iDose4, and IMR at each dose level. Image quality in static CTP images was assessed by SNR and CNR. Blood flow was obtained using a dynamic CTP analysis pipeline and blood flow image quality was assessed using flow-SNR and flow-CNR. IMR showed highest static image quality according to SNR and CNR. Blood flow in FBP was increasingly over-estimated at reduced dose. Flow was more consistent for iDose4 from 100mAs to 50mAs, but was over-estimated at 25mAs. IMR was most consistent from 100mAs to 25mAs. Static images and flow maps for 100mAs FBP, 50mAs iDose4, and 25mAs IMR showed comparable, clear ischemia, CNR, and flow-CNR values. These results suggest that IMR can enable dynamic CTP at significantly reduced dose, at 5.8mSv or 25% of the comparable 23mSv FBP protocol.

Radiation Dose to the Lens of the Eye from Computed Tomography Scans of the Head

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Januzis, Natalie Ann

While it is well known that exposure to radiation can result in cataract formation, questions still remain about the presence of a dose threshold in radiation cataractogenesis. Since the exposure history from diagnostic CT exams is well documented in a patient's medical record, the population of patients chronically exposed to radiation from head CT exams may be an interesting area to explore for further research in this area. However, there are some challenges in estimating lens dose from head CT exams. An accurate lens dosimetry model would have to account for differences in imaging protocols, differences in head size, and the use of any dose reduction methods. The overall objective of this dissertation was to develop a comprehensive method to estimate radiation dose to the lens of the eye for patients receiving CT scans of the head. This research is comprised of a physics component, in which a lens dosimetry model was derived for head CT, and a clinical component, which involved the application of that dosimetry model to patient data. The physics component includes experiments related to the physical measurement of the radiation dose to the lens by various types of dosimeters placed within anthropomorphic phantoms. These dosimeters include high-sensitivity MOSFETs, TLDs, and radiochromic film. The six anthropomorphic phantoms used in these experiments range in age from newborn to adult. First, the lens dose from five clinically relevant head CT protocols was measured in the anthropomorphic phantoms with MOSFET dosimeters on two state-of-the-art CT scanners. The volume CT dose index (CTDIvol), which is a standard CT output index, was compared to the measured lens doses. Phantom age-specific CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factors were derived using linear regression analysis. Since head size can vary among individuals of the same age, a method was derived to estimate the CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factor using the effective head diameter. These conversion factors were derived for each scanner individually, but also were derived with the combined data from the two scanners as a means to investigate the feasibility of a scanner-independent method. Using the scanner-independent method to derive the CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factor from the effective head diameter, most of the fitted lens dose values fell within 10-15% of the measured values from the phantom study, suggesting that this is a fairly accurate method of estimating lens dose from the CTDIvol with knowledge of the patient's head size. Second, the dose reduction potential of organ-based tube current modulation (OB-TCM) and its effect on the CTDIvol-to-lens dose estimation method was investigated. The lens dose was measured with MOSFET dosimeters placed within the same six anthropomorphic phantoms. The phantoms were scanned with the five clinical head CT protocols with OB-TCM enabled on the one scanner model at our institution equipped with this software. The average decrease in lens dose with OB-TCM ranged from 13.5 to 26.0%. Using the size-specific method to derive the CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factor from the effective head diameter for protocols with OB-TCM, the majority of the fitted lens dose values fell within 15-18% of the measured values from the phantom study. Third, the effect of gantry angulation on lens dose was investigated by measuring the lens dose with TLDs placed within the six anthropomorphic phantoms. The 2-dimensional spatial distribution of dose within the areas of the phantoms containing the orbit was measured with radiochromic film. A method was derived to determine the CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factor based upon distance from the primary beam scan range to the lens. The average dose to the lens region decreased substantially for almost all the phantoms (ranging from 67 to 92%) when the orbit was exposed to scattered radiation compared to the primary beam. The effectiveness of this method to reduce lens dose is highly dependent upon the shape and size of the head, which influences whether or not the angled scan range coverage can include the entire brain volume and still avoid the orbit. The clinical component of this dissertation involved performing retrospective patient studies in the pediatric and adult populations, and reconstructing the lens doses from head CT examinations with the methods derived in the physics component. The cumulative lens doses in the patients selected for the retrospective study ranged from 40 to 1020 mGy in the pediatric group, and 53 to 2900 mGy in the adult group. This dissertation represents a comprehensive approach to lens of the eye dosimetry in CT imaging of the head. The collected data and derived formulas can be used in future studies on radiation-induced cataracts from repeated CT imaging of the head. Additionally, it can be used in the areas of personalized patient dose management, and protocol optimization and clinician training.

Quantification of damage due to low-dose radiation exposure in mice: construction and application of a biodosimetric model using mRNA indicators in circulating white blood cells

PubMed Central

Ishihara, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Izumi; Yakumaru, Haruko; Tanaka, Mika; Yokochi, Kazuko; Fukutsu, Kumiko; Tajima, Katsushi; Nishimura, Mayumi; Shimada, Yoshiya; Akashi, Makoto

2016-01-01

Biodosimetry, the measurement of radiation damage in a biologic sample, is a reliable tool for increasing the accuracy of dose estimation. Although established chromosome analyses are suitable for estimating the absorbed dose after high-dose irradiation, biodosimetric methodology to measure damage following low-dose exposure is underdeveloped. RNA analysis of circulating blood containing radiation-sensitive cells is a candidate biodosimetry method. Here we quantified RNA from a small amount of blood isolated from mice following low-dose body irradiation (<0.5 Gy) aimed at developing biodosimetric tools for situations that are difficult to study in humans. By focusing on radiation-sensitive undifferentiated cells in the blood based on Myc RNA expression, we quantified the relative levels of RNA for DNA damage-induced (DDI) genes, such as Bax, Bbc3 and Cdkn1a. The RNA ratios of DDI genes/Myc in the blood increased in a dose-dependent manner 4 h after whole-body irradiation at doses ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 Gy (air-kerma) of X-rays, regardless of whether the mice were in an active or resting state. The RNA ratios were significantly increased after 0.014 Gy (air-kerma) of single X-ray irradiation. The RNA ratios were directly proportional to the absorbed doses in water ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 Gy, based on gamma-irradiation from 137Cs. Four hours after continuous irradiation with gamma-rays or by internal contamination with a beta-emitter, the increased RNA ratios resembled those following single irradiation. These findings indicate that the RNA status can be utilized as a biodosimetric tool to estimate low-dose radiation when focusing on undifferentiated cells in blood. PMID:26589759

Characterization of optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters and investigating their potential for estimating pediatric organ doses in multi-slice computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Senan, Rani Mohammed

Recent epidemiologic studies have shown a strong association between the relatively high doses of pediatric CT and the risk of cancer. Quantifying organ doses, as a measure of the risk, is commonly based on either direct anthropomorphic phantom measurements or Monte Carlo simulation. The major disadvantage in the phantom approach is its high cost especially that, for pediatric CT dosimetry, various phantom sizes are required to represent different age groups of children. On the other hand, Monte Carlo simulation, although not considered costly, requires validation by anthropomorphic phantom measurements. The aim of this project was to develop two methods of organ dose estimation in pediatric CT: 1) from the measured surface dose using optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters (OSLDs) and 2) by measuring the circumference of the body part being scanned as well as knowing the scan parameters. The project was based on a study proposed by the surgery department to monitor radiation exposure to children during their CT examination in the ER. A total of 200 pediatric patients were enrolled in this study which used OSLDs to monitor the doses. Specific aim 1 of this project was to characterize the OSLDs in the diagnostic energy range. Specific aim 2(a) was to find relationships between the patients' doses from OSLDs and both scan CTDI and the measured circumference. In specific aim 2(b) we carried out measurements using CTDI phantoms to investigate the relationships studied in specific aim 2(a). Specific aim 3 was to come up with models to estimate select organ doses from measuring surface dose or by using the circumference of the body part. To do this, pediatric examinations were simulated using a set of pediatric anthropomorphic phantoms in which doses of select organs were measured.

PREDICTIVE ORGANOPHOSPHORUS (OP) PESTICIDE QSARS AND PBPK/PD MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF SUSCEPTIBLE SUB-POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Successful use of the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) in risk assessment of susceptible human sub-populations, e.g., infants and children, requires input of quality experimental data. In the clear absence of quality data, PBPK models can be developed and possibl...

The time-course of protection of the RTS,S vaccine against malaria infections and clinical disease.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Smith, Thomas A

2015-11-04

Recent publications have reported follow-up of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate Phase III trials at 11 African sites for 32 months (or longer). This includes site- and time-specific estimates of incidence and efficacy against clinical disease with four different vaccination schedules. These data allow estimation of the time-course of protection against infection associated with two different ages of vaccination, both with and without a booster dose. Using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, each trial cohort in the Phase III trial was simulated assuming many different hypothetical profiles for the vaccine efficacy against infection in time, for both the primary course and boosting dose and including the potential for either exponential or non-exponential decay. The underlying profile of protection was determined by Bayesian fitting of these model predictions to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria over 32 months (or longer) of follow-up. Using the same stochastic models, projections of clinical efficacy in each of the sites were modelled and compared to available observed trial data. The initial protection of RTS,S immediately following three doses is estimated as providing an efficacy against infection of 65 % (when immunizing infants aged 6-12 weeks old) and 91 % (immunizing children aged 5-17 months old at first vaccination). This protection decays relatively rapidly, with an approximately exponential decay for the 6-12 weeks old cohort (with a half-life of 7.2 months); for the 5-17 months old cohort a biphasic decay with a similar half-life is predicted, with an initial rapid decay followed by a slower decay. The boosting dose was estimated to return protection to an efficacy against infection of 50-55 % for both cohorts. Estimates of clinical efficacy by trial site are consistent with those reported in the trial for all cohorts. The site- and time-specific clinical observations from the RTS,S/AS01 trial data allowed a reasonably precise estimation of the underlying vaccine protection against infection which is consistent with common underlying efficacy and decay rates across the trial sites. This calibration suggests that the decay in efficacy against clinical disease is more rapid than that against infection because of age-shifts in the incidence of disease. The dynamical models predict that clinical effectiveness will continue to decay and that likely effects beyond the time-scale of the trial will be small.

The radiation dosimetry of intrathecally administered radionuclides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stabin, M.G.; Evans, J.F.

The radiation dose to the spine, spinal cord, marrow, and other organs of the body from intrathecal administration of several radiopharmaceuticals was studied. Anatomic models were developed for the spine, spinal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), spinal cord, spinal skeleton, cranial skeleton, and cranial CSF. A kinetic model for the transport of CSF was used to determine residence times in the CSF; material leaving the CSF was thereafter assumed to enter the bloodstream and follow the kinetics of the radiopharmaceutical as if intravenously administered. The radiation transport codes MCNP and ALGAMP were used to model the electron and photon transport and energymore » deposition. The dosimetry of Tc-99m DTPA and HSA, In-111 DTPA, I-131 HSA, and Yb-169 DTPA was studied. Radiation dose profiles for the spinal cord and marrow in the spine were developed and average doses to all other organs were estimated, including dose distributions within the bone and marrow.« less

Pediatric tuberculous meningitis: model-based approach to determining optimal doses of the anti-tuberculosis drugs rifampin and levofloxacin for children

PubMed Central

Savic, Radojka M.; Ruslami, Rovina; Hibma, Jennifer E.; Hesseling, Anneke; Ramachandran, Geetha; Ganiem, A. Rizal; Swaminathan, Soumya; McIlleron, Helen; Gupta, Amita; Thakur, Kiran; van Crevel, Reinout; Aarnoutse, Rob; Dooley, Kelly E.

2016-01-01

Pediatric TB meningitis (TBM) is a highly-morbid, oft-fatal disease. Standard treatment includes isoniazid, rifampin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol. Current rifampin dosing achieves low cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations, and CSF penetration of ethambutol is poor. In adult trials, higher-dose rifampin and/or a fluoroquinolone reduced mortality and disability. To estimate optimal dosing of rifampin and levofloxacin for children, we compiled plasma and CSF pharmacokinetic and outcomes data from adult TBM trials plus plasma pharmacokinetic data from children. A population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model using adult data defined rifampin target exposures (plasma AUC0–24=92 mg*h/L). Levofloxacin targets and rifampin pediatric drug disposition information were literature-derived. To attain target rifampin exposures, children require daily doses of at least 30 mg/kg orally or 15 mg/kg intravenously. From our pediatric population PK model, oral levofloxacin doses needed to attain exposure targets were 19–33 mg/kg. Our results provide data-driven guidance to maximize pediatric TBM treatment while we await definitive trial results. PMID:26260983

Characterization of Filters Loaded With Reactor Strontium Carbonate - 13203

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Josephson, Walter S.; Steen, Franciska H.

A collection of three highly radioactive filters containing reactor strontium carbonate were being prepared for disposal. All three filters were approximately characterized at the time of manufacture by gravimetric methods. The first filter had been partially emptied, and the quantity of residual activity was uncertain. Dose rate to activity modeling using the Monte-Carlo N Particle (MCNP) code was selected to confirm the gravimetric characterization of the full filters, and to fully characterize the partially emptied filter. Although dose rate to activity modeling using MCNP is a common technique, it is not often used for Bremsstrahlung-dominant materials such as reactor strontium.more » As a result, different MCNP modeling options were compared to determine the optimum approach. This comparison indicated that the accuracy of the results were heavily dependent on the MCNP modeling details and the location of the dose rate measurement point. The optimum model utilized a photon spectrum generated by the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation and Depletion (ORIGEN) code and dose rates measured at 30 cm. Results from the optimum model agreed with the gravimetric estimates within 15%. It was demonstrated that dose rate to activity modeling can be successful for Bremsstrahlung-dominant radioactive materials. However, the degree of success is heavily dependent on the choice of modeling techniques. (authors)« less

Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents.

PubMed

Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

2018-04-01

In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows' milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper.

Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents

PubMed Central

Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Abstract In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows’ milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper. PMID:29415268

Effective doses to family members of patients treated with radioiodine-131

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zdraveska Kocovska, M.; Vaskova, O.; Majstorov, V.; Kuzmanovska, S.; Pop Gjorceva, D.; Spasic Jokic, V.

2011-09-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effective dose to family members of thyroid cancer and hyperthyroid patients treated with radioiodine-131, and also to compare the results with dose constraints proposed by the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Basic Safety Standards (BSS) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). For the estimation of the effective doses, sixty family members of sixty patients, treated with radioiodine-131, and thermoluminiscent dosimeters (Model TLD 100) were used. Thyroid cancer patients were hospitalized for three days, while hyperthyroid patients were treated on out-patient basis. The family members wore TLD in front of the torso for seven days. The radiation doses to family members of thyroid cancer patients were well below the recommended dose constraint of 1 mSv. The mean value of effective dose was 0.21 mSv (min 0.02 - max 0.51 mSv). Effective doses, higher than 1 mSv, were detected for 11 family members of hyperthyroid patients. The mean value of effective dose of family members of hyperthyroid patients was 0.87 mSv (min 0.12 - max 6.79). The estimated effective doses to family members of hyperthyroid patients were higher than the effective doses to family members of thyroid carcinoma patients. These findings may be considered when establishing new national guidelines concerning radiation protection and release of patients after a treatment with radioiodine therapy.

Global transport and deposition of 137Cs following the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in Japan: emphasis on Europe and Asia using high-resolution model versions and radiological impact assessment of the human population and the environment using interactive tools.

PubMed

Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Møller, Anders Pape

2013-06-04

The earthquake and the subsequent tsunami that occurred offshore of Japan resulted in an important loss of life and a serious accident at the nuclear facility of Fukushima. The "hot spots" of the release are evaluated here applying the model LMDZORINCA for (137)Cs. Moreover, an assessment is attempted for the population and the environment using the dosimetric scheme of the WHO and the interactive tool ERICA, respectively. Cesium-137 was deposited mostly in Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and North Pole (80%), whereas the rest in the continental areas of North America and Eurasia contributed slightly to the natural background (0.5-5.0 kBq m(-2)). The effective dose from (137)Cs and (134)Cs (radiocesium) irradiation during the first 3 months was estimated between 1-5 mSv in Fukushima and the neighboring prefectures. In the rest of Japan, the respective doses were found to be less than 0.5 mSv, whereas in the rest of the world it was less than 0.1 mSv. Such doses are equivalent with the obtained dose from a simple X-ray; for the highly contaminated regions, they are close to the dose limit for exposure due to radon inhalation (10 mSv). The calculated dose rates from radiocesium exposure on reference organisms ranged from 0.03 to 0.18 μGy h(-1), which are 2 orders of magnitude below the screening dose limit (10 μGy h(-1)) that could result in obvious effects on the population. However, these results may underestimate the real situation, since stable soil density was used in the calculations, a zero radiocesium background was assumed, and dose only from two radionuclides was estimated, while more that 40 radionuclides have been deposited in the vicinity of the facility. When monitoring data applied, much higher dose rates were estimated certifying ecological risk for small mammals and reptiles in terms of cytogenetic damage and reproduction.

Estimation of whole-body radiation exposure from brachytherapy for oral cancer using a Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Ozaki, Y; Watanabe, H; Kaida, A; Miura, M; Nakagawa, K; Toda, K; Yoshimura, R; Sumi, Y; Kurabayashi, T

2017-07-01

Early stage oral cancer can be cured with oral brachytherapy, but whole-body radiation exposure status has not been previously studied. Recently, the International Commission on Radiological Protection Committee (ICRP) recommended the use of ICRP phantoms to estimate radiation exposure from external and internal radiation sources. In this study, we used a Monte Carlo simulation with ICRP phantoms to estimate whole-body exposure from oral brachytherapy. We used a Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS) to model oral brachytherapy with 192Ir hairpins and 198Au grains and to perform a Monte Carlo simulation on the ICRP adult reference computational phantoms. To confirm the simulations, we also computed local dose distributions from these small sources, and compared them with the results from Oncentra manual Low Dose Rate Treatment Planning (mLDR) software which is used in day-to-day clinical practice. We successfully obtained data on absorbed dose for each organ in males and females. Sex-averaged equivalent doses were 0.547 and 0.710 Sv with 192Ir hairpins and 198Au grains, respectively. Simulation with PHITS was reliable when compared with an alternative computational technique using mLDR software. We concluded that the absorbed dose for each organ and whole-body exposure from oral brachytherapy can be estimated with Monte Carlo simulation using PHITS on ICRP reference phantoms. Effective doses for patients with oral cancer were obtained. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies.

PubMed

Cologne, John; Preston, Dale L; Grant, Eric J; Cullings, Harry M; Ozasa, Kotaro

2018-03-01

It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation-in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters-in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. Furthermore, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports.

Estimates of galactic cosmic ray shielding requirements during solar minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Simonsen, Lisa C.

1990-01-01

Estimates of radiation risk from galactic cosmic rays are presented for manned interplanetary missions. The calculations use the Naval Research Laboratory cosmic ray spectrum model as input into the Langley Research Center galactic cosmic ray transport code. This transport code, which transports both heavy ions and nucleons, can be used with any number of layers of target material, consisting of up to five different arbitrary constituents per layer. Calculated galactic cosmic ray fluxes, dose and dose equivalents behind various thicknesses of aluminum, water and liquid hydrogen shielding are presented for the solar minimum period. Estimates of risk to the skin and the blood-forming organs (BFO) are made using 0-cm and 5-cm depth dose/dose equivalent values, respectively, for water. These results indicate that at least 3.5 g/sq cm (3.5 cm) of water, or 6.5 g/sq cm (2.4 cm) of aluminum, or 1.0 g/sq cm (14 cm) of liquid hydrogen shielding is required to reduce the annual exposure below the currently recommended BFO limit of 0.5 Sv. Because of large uncertainties in fragmentation parameters and the input cosmic ray spectrum, these exposure estimates may be uncertain by as much as a factor of 2 or more. The effects of these potential exposure uncertainties or shield thickness requirements are analyzed.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of dose-dense versus standard intravenous chemotherapy for ovarian cancer: An economic analysis of results from the Gynecologic Oncology Group protocol 262 randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Seagle, Brandon-Luke L; Shahabi, Shohreh

2017-04-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of dose-dense versus standard intravenous adjuvant chemotherapy for ovarian cancer using results from the no-bevacizumab cohort of the Gynecologic Oncology Group protocol 262 (GOG-262) randomized controlled trial, which reported a smaller absolute progression-free survival (PFS) benefit than the prior Japanese trial. A three-state Markov decision model from a healthcare system perspective with a 21day cycle length and 28month time-horizon was used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) values per progression-free life-year saved (PFLYS) using results from GOG-262. Costs of chemotherapy, complications, and surveillance were from Medicare or institutional data. PFS, discontinuation, and complication rates were from GOG-262. Time-dependent transition probabilities and within-cycle corrections were used. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The model produces standard and dose-dense cohorts with 84.3% and 68.3% progression event proportions at 28months, matching GOG-262 rates at the trial's median follow-up. With a median PFS of 10.3months after standard chemotherapy and a hazard ratio for progression of 0.62 after dose-dense therapy, the ICER for dose-dense chemotherapy is $8074.25 (95% confidence interval: $7615.97-$10,207.16) per PFLYS. ICER estimates are sensitive only to the hazard ratio estimate but do not exceed $100,000 per PFLYS. 99.8% of ICER estimates met a more stringent willingness-to-pay of $50,000 per PFLYS. The willingness-to-pay value at which there is a 90% probability of dose-dense treatment being cost-effective is $12,000 per PFLYS. Dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy is robustly cost-effective for advanced ovarian cancer from a healthcare system perspective based on results from GOG-262. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SU-E-I-15: Comparison of Radiation Dose for Radiography and EOS in Adolescent Scoliosis Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schueler, B; Walz-Flannigan, A

Purpose: To estimate patient radiation dose for whole spine imaging using EOS, a new biplanar slot-scanning radiographic system and compare with standard scoliosis radiography. Methods: The EOS imaging system (EOS Imaging, Paris, France) consists of two orthogonal x-ray fan beams which simultaneously acquire frontal and lateral projection images of a standing patient. The patient entrance skin air kerma was measured for each projection image using manufacturer-recommended exposure parameters for spine imaging. Organ and effective doses were estimated using a commercially-available Monte Carlo simulation program (PCXMC, STUK, Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki, Finland) for a 15 year old mathematical phantommore » model. These results were compared to organ and effective dose estimated for scoliosis radiography using computed radiography (CR) with standard exposure parameters obtained from a survey of pediatric radiographic projections. Results: The entrance skin air kerma for EOS was found to be 0.18 mGy and 0.33 mGy for posterior-anterior (PA) and lateral projections, respectively. This compares to 0.76 mGy and 1.4 mGy for CR, PA and lateral projections. Effective dose for EOS (PA and lateral projections combined) is 0.19 mSv compared to 0.51 mSv for CR. Conclusion: The EOS slot-scanning radiographic system allows for reduced patient radiation dose in scoliosis patients as compared to standard CR radiography.« less