AMPHIBIAN DECLINES AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE EASTERN "MOJAVE DESERT"

EPA Science Inventory

A number of amphibian species historically inhabited sparsely distributed wetlands in the Mojave Desert, USA, habitats that have been dramatically altered or eliminated as a result of human activities. The population status and distribution of amphibians were investigated in a 20...

Disease and community structure: white-nose syndrome alters spatial and temporal niche partitioning in sympatric bat species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jachowski, David S.; Dobony, Christopher A.; Coleman, Laci S.; Ford, W. Mark; Britzke, Eric R.; Rodrigue, Jane L.

2014-01-01

AimEmerging infectious diseases present a major perturbation with apparent direct effects such as reduced population density, extirpation and/or extinction. Comparatively less is known about the potential indirect effects of disease that likely alter community structure and larger ecosystem function. Since 2006, white-nose syndrome (WNS) has resulted in the loss of over 6 million hibernating bats in eastern North America. Considerable evidence exists concerning niche partitioning in sympatric bat species in this region, and the unprecedented, rapid decline in multiple species following WNS may provide an opportunity to observe a dramatic restructuring of the bat community.LocationWe conducted our study at Fort Drum Army Installation in Jefferson and Lewis counties, New York, USA, where WNS first impacted extant bat species in winter 2007–2008.MethodsAcoustical monitoring during 2003–2011 allowed us to test the hypothesis that spatial and temporal niche partitioning by bats was relaxed post-WNS.ResultsWe detected nine bat species pre- and post-WNS. Activity for most bat species declined post-WNS. Dramatic post-WNS declines in activity of little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus, MYLU), formerly the most abundant bat species in the region, were associated with complex, often species-specific responses by other species that generally favoured increased spatial and temporal overlap with MYLU.Main conclusionsIn addition to the obvious direct effects of disease on bat populations and activity levels, our results provide evidence that disease can have cascading indirect effects on community structure. Recent occurrence of WNS in North America, combined with multiple existing stressors, is resulting in dramatic shifts in temporal and spatial niche partitioning within bat communities. These changes might influence long-term population viability of some bat species as well as broader scale ecosystem structure and function.

Temporal Patterns of Airborne Pesticides in Alpine Lakes of the Sierra Nevada, California

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne agricultural pesticides are being transported many tens of kilometers to remote mountain areas, and have been implicated as a causal agent for recent, dramatic population declines of several amphibian species in such locations. Largely unmeasured, however, are the magnit...

Pollinator Research at EPA

EPA Science Inventory

Of great concern, honey bee populations have experienced dramatic declines in the US and in many other countries. In response to this issue, the White House instructed the EPA and USDA to lead a Federal Task Force to develop a National Strategy on Pollinator Health which called f...

PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF RANA YAVAPAIENSIS AND RANA ONCA: PRELIMINARY FINDINGS WITH CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The closely related aridland frogs Rana onca (Relict Leopard Frog) and Rana yavapaiensis (Lowland Leopard Frog) have both experienced dramatic population declines. Rana onca currently occurs naturally at only 6 disjunct sites in southern Nevada. Rana yavapaiensis is present acros...

Devastating Decline of Forest Elephants in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Blake, Stephen; Wittemyer, George; Hart, John; Williamson, Elizabeth A.; Aba’a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Ambahe, Ruffin D.; Amsini, Fidèl; Bakabana, Parfait C.; Hicks, Thurston Cleveland; Bayogo, Rosine E.; Bechem, Martha; Beyers, Rene L.; Bezangoye, Anicet N.; Boundja, Patrick; Bout, Nicolas; Akou, Marc Ella; Bene, Lambert Bene; Fosso, Bernard; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Ikamba-Nkulu, Clement; Ilambu, Omari; Inogwabini, Bila-Isia; Iyenguet, Fortune; Kiminou, Franck; Kokangoye, Max; Kujirakwinja, Deo; Latour, Stephanie; Liengola, Innocent; Mackaya, Quevain; Madidi, Jacob; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé; Malonga, Richard; Mbani, Olivier; Mbendzo, Valentin A.; Ambassa, Edgar; Ekinde, Albert; Mihindou, Yves; Morgan, Bethan J.; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mounguengui, Anselme; Mowawa, Brice S.; Ndzai, Christian; Nixon, Stuart; Nkumu, Pele; Nzolani, Fabian; Pintea, Lilian; Plumptre, Andrew; Rainey, Hugo; de Semboli, Bruno Bokoto; Serckx, Adeline; Stokes, Emma; Turkalo, Andrea; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke

2013-01-01

African forest elephants– taxonomically and functionally unique–are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002–2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced. PMID:23469289

Severe mammal declines coincide with proliferation of invasive Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorcas, Michael E.; Wilson, John D.; Reed, Robert N.; Snow, Ray W.; Rochford, Michael R.; Miller, Melissa A.; Meshaka, Walter E.; Andreadis, Paul T.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romagosa, Christina M.; Hart, Kristen M.

2012-01-01

Invasive species represent a significant threat to global biodiversity and a substantial economic burden. Burmese pythons, giant constricting snakes native to Asia, now are found throughout much of southern Florida, including all of Everglades National Park (ENP). Pythons have increased dramatically in both abundance and geographic range since 2000 and consume a wide variety of mammals and birds. Here we report severe apparent declines in mammal populations that coincide temporally and spatially with the proliferation of pythons in ENP. Before 2000, mammals were encountered frequently during nocturnal road surveys within ENP. In contrast, road surveys totaling 56,971 km from 2003–2011 documented a 99.3% decrease in the frequency of raccoon observations, decreases of 98.9% and 87.5% for opossum and bobcat observations, respectively, and failed to detect rabbits. Road surveys also revealed that these species are more common in areas where pythons have been discovered only recently and are most abundant outside the python's current introduced range. These findings suggest that predation by pythons has resulted in dramatic declines in mammals within ENP and that introduced apex predators, such as giant constrictors, can exert significant top-down pressure on prey populations. Severe declines in easily observed and/or common mammals, such as raccoons and bobcats, bode poorly for species of conservation concern, which often are more difficult to sample and occur at lower densities.

Postsecondary Educational Decision-Making among First-Generation College-Bound Students in Okinawa Prefecture, with Consideration of the Population Problem in Japan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amaki, Yuki

2010-01-01

In correspondence to an overall decline in the Japanese population, the number of young students in Japan has been dramatically decreasing to the extent that the Japanese government has predicted a situation in which as of 2009 admissions places in Japanese universities will be equal to the number of applicants. Currently, approximately fifty…

Temporal Patterns and Sources of Atmospherically Deposited Pesticides in Alpine Lakes of the Sierra Nevada, California , USA

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne agricultural pesticides are being transported large distances to remote mountain areas, and have been implicated as a cause or contributing factor for recent, dramatic population declines of several amphibian species in such locations. Largely unmeasured, however, are ...

Quantifying Temporal Genomic Erosion in Endangered Species.

PubMed

Díez-Del-Molino, David; Sánchez-Barreiro, Fatima; Barnes, Ian; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Dalén, Love

2018-03-01

Many species have undergone dramatic population size declines over the past centuries. Although stochastic genetic processes during and after such declines are thought to elevate the risk of extinction, comparative analyses of genomic data from several endangered species suggest little concordance between genome-wide diversity and current population sizes. This is likely because species-specific life-history traits and ancient bottlenecks overshadow the genetic effect of recent demographic declines. Therefore, we advocate that temporal sampling of genomic data provides a more accurate approach to quantify genetic threats in endangered species. Specifically, genomic data from predecline museum specimens will provide valuable baseline data that enable accurate estimation of recent decreases in genome-wide diversity, increases in inbreeding levels, and accumulation of deleterious genetic variation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF AIRBORNE PESTICIDES IN THE HABITATE OF THE MOUNTAIN YELLOW-LEGGED FROG IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne agricultural pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a possible cause for recent, dramatic population declines of several amphibian species in remote mountain locations. To determine the temporal variation of pesticide levels in the habit...

Recent increases in the large glacial-relict calanoid Limnocalanus macrurus in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbiero, R.P.; Bunnell, D.B.; Rockwell, D.C.; Tuchman, M.L.

2009-01-01

Since 2004, population density of the large hypolimnetic calanoid Limnocalanus macrurus Sars. has increased dramatically in Lake Michigan. The average summer biomass of this species between 2004 and 2006 was roughly three times that of the period 1984–2003, and at levels unprecedented in our 22-year dataset, making L. macrurus the dominant zooplankter in the lake in terms of biomass. These increases have been accentuated by coincident population declines of the main daphnid, Daphnia mendotae, in the lake with the result that in 2006, L. macrurus accounted for 75% and 50% of the large (> 0.9 mm) crustacean biomass in the northern and southern basins of Lake Michigan, respectively. The increases in L. macrurus populations have closely coincided with equally dramatic increases in summer water clarity. Recent extinction coefficients are among the lowest recorded for the lake, and deepening light penetration has permitted increases in the size of the deep chlorophyll layer. In addition, planktivorous fish populations have declined coincidently with the increases in L. macrurus. It seems likely that an increase in sub-epilimnetic production has resulted in increased food resources for the deep-living L. macrurus, while low planktivore abundances have reduced predation loss, permitting L. macrurus to respond to these increases in sub-epilimnetic production.

Measuring Recent Apparent Declines In Longevity: The Role Of Increasing Educational Attainment.

PubMed

Bound, John; Geronimus, Arline T; Rodriguez, Javier M; Waidmann, Timothy A

2015-12-01

Independent researchers have reported an alarming decline in life expectancy after 1990 among US non-Hispanic whites with less than a high school education. However, US educational attainment rose dramatically during the twentieth century; thus, focusing on changes in mortality rates of those not completing high school means looking at a different, shrinking, and increasingly vulnerable segment of the population in each year. We analyzed US data to examine the robustness of earlier findings categorizing education in terms of relative rank in the overall distribution of each birth cohort, instead of by credentials such as high school graduation. Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically. We conclude that widely publicized estimates of worsening mortality rates among non-Hispanic whites with low socioeconomic position are highly sensitive to how educational attainment is classified. However, non-Hispanic whites with low socioeconomic position, especially women, are not sharing in improving life expectancy, and disparities between US blacks and whites are entrenched. Findings underscore the urgency of an agenda to equitably disseminate new medical technologies and to deepen knowledge of social determinants of health and how that knowledge can be applied, to promote the objective of achieving population health equity. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Big Read, Big ROI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dempsey, Beth

2008-01-01

In 2004, the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) released a grim report on the state of literary reading in America. "Reading at Risk" (www.nea.gov/pub/ReadingAtRisk.pdf) detailed a dramatic decline in recreational reading across all segments of the American population--young and old, black, brown, and white. It also included the projected…

Small Town Renewal: Overview and Case Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenyon, Peter, Ed.; Black, Alan, Ed.

Many small, inland, and remote Australian rural communities continue to lose population and businesses, a trend that has intensified over the last 2 decades. Mean age continues to rise, while the 15-24 age group contracts dramatically. Such declining demographics are caused by the stress and uncertainty of volatile world commodity markets, as well…

Age Specific Survival Rates of Steller Sea Lions at Rookeries with Divergent Population Trends in the Russian Far East

PubMed Central

Altukhov, Alexey V.; Andrews, Russel D.; Calkins, Donald G.; Gelatt, Thomas S.; Gurarie, Eliezer D.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mamaev, Evgeny G.; Nikulin, Victor S.; Permyakov, Peter A.; Ryazanov, Sergey D.; Vertyankin, Vladimir V.; Burkanov, Vladimir N.

2015-01-01

After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas. PMID:26016772

Correlates of virulence in a frog-killing fungal pathogen: evidence from a California amphibian decline.

PubMed

Piovia-Scott, Jonah; Pope, Karen; Worth, S Joy; Rosenblum, Erica Bree; Poorten, Thomas; Refsnider, Jeanine; Rollins-Smith, Louise A; Reinert, Laura K; Wells, Heather L; Rejmanek, Dan; Lawler, Sharon; Foley, Janet

2015-07-01

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused declines and extinctions in amphibians worldwide, and there is increasing evidence that some strains of this pathogen are more virulent than others. While a number of putative virulence factors have been identified, few studies link these factors to specific epizootic events. We documented a dramatic decline in juvenile frogs in a Bd-infected population of Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) in the mountains of northern California and used a laboratory experiment to show that Bd isolated in the midst of this decline induced higher mortality than Bd isolated from a more stable population of the same species of frog. This highly virulent Bd isolate was more toxic to immune cells and attained higher density in liquid culture than comparable isolates. Genomic analyses revealed that this isolate is nested within the global panzootic lineage and exhibited unusual genomic patterns, including increased copy numbers of many chromosomal segments. This study integrates data from multiple sources to suggest specific phenotypic and genomic characteristics of the pathogen that may be linked to disease-related declines.

A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species.

PubMed

Kleijn, David; Raemakers, Ivo

2008-07-01

Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem by studying species' characteristics on specimens that were collected before the onset of their decline and preserved in natural history museums. In northwestern Europe, some bumble bee species declined dramatically during the 20th century whereas other, ecologically similar, species maintained stable populations. A long-standing debate focuses on whether this is caused by declining species having stricter host plant preferences. We compared the composition of pollen loads of five bumble bee species with stable populations and five with declining populations using museum specimens collected before 1950 in Belgium, England, and The Netherlands. Prior to 1950, the number of plant taxa in pollen loads of declining species was almost one-third lower than that in stable species even though individuals of stable and declining species generally originated from the same areas. There were no systematic differences in the composition of pollen loads between stable and declining species, but the plant taxa preferred by declining species before 1950 had experienced a stronger decline in the 20th century than those preferred by stable species. In 2004 and 2005, we surveyed the areas where bumble bees had been caught in the past and compared the composition of past and present pollen loads of the stable, but not of the by now locally extinct declining species. The number of collected pollen taxa was similar, but the composition differed significantly between the two periods. Differences in composition reflected the major changes in land use in northwestern Europe but also the spread of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera. The main question now is why declining species apparently were not able to switch to less preferred food plants when stable species were. This study shows that natural history collections can play an important role in improving our understanding of the ecological mechanisms driving species population change.

Advancing the science of forest hydrology A challenge to agricultural and biological engineers

Treesearch

Devendra Amatya; Wayne Skaggs; Carl Trettin

2009-01-01

For more than a century, agricultural and biological engineers have provided major advances in science, engineering, and technology to increase food and fiber production to meet the demands of a rapidly growing global population. The land base for these technological advances has originated largely from forested lands, which have experienced dramatic declines over the...

A Toy Clinic Shop: Innovation Management in a Shin-Tai Elementary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Jon-Chao; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Liang, Hwey-Wen; Chang, Hsin-Wu

2008-01-01

In Taiwan there is a declining birth rate and a dramatic increase in the elderly population. There is also the trend of using school space that would otherwise be left unused. The experimental project "Toy Clinic Shop in Elementary School" offers an innovative management model for elementary schools to address these developments. The…

A triumphant decline?: Tetanus among slaves and freeborn in Brazil.

PubMed

Read, Ian

2012-12-01

Tetanus and other widespread endemic diseases of Brazil's early national period speak to intimate details of common life and give clues to big, vexing questions, such as why Brazil's population expanded dramatically at the turn of the twentieth century. Tetanus was for a long time one of Brazil's deadliest afflictions, especially among infants, but historians know very little about it. Using archival sources from across the Empire and early Republic, this article argues tetanus disproportionately killed the enslaved population, but gradually diminished in virulence for nearly all groups across the country by the second half of the 1800s. This decline should be attributed only partially to medical knowledge. Rather, indirect demographic and technological changes were more important factors in Brazil.

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

Combining genetic and demographic information to prioritize conservation efforts for anadromous alewife and blueback herring

PubMed Central

Palkovacs, Eric P; Hasselman, Daniel J; Argo, Emily E; Gephard, Stephen R; Limburg, Karin E; Post, David M; Schultz, Thomas F; Willis, Theodore V

2014-01-01

A major challenge in conservation biology is the need to broadly prioritize conservation efforts when demographic data are limited. One method to address this challenge is to use population genetic data to define groups of populations linked by migration and then use demographic information from monitored populations to draw inferences about the status of unmonitored populations within those groups. We applied this method to anadromous alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis), species for which long-term demographic data are limited. Recent decades have seen dramatic declines in these species, which are an important ecological component of coastal ecosystems and once represented an important fishery resource. Results show that most populations comprise genetically distinguishable units, which are nested geographically within genetically distinct clusters or stocks. We identified three distinct stocks in alewife and four stocks in blueback herring. Analysis of available time series data for spawning adult abundance and body size indicate declines across the US ranges of both species, with the most severe declines having occurred for populations belonging to the Southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic Stocks. While all alewife and blueback herring populations deserve conservation attention, those belonging to these genetic stocks warrant the highest conservation prioritization. PMID:24567743

The legacy of slavery and contemporary declines in heart disease mortality in the U.S. South.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Black, Nyesha C; Matthews, Stephen A; James, Sherman A

2017-12-01

This study aims to characterize the role of county-specific legacy of slavery in patterning temporal (i.e., 1968-2014), and geographic (i.e., Southern counties) declines in heart disease mortality. In this context, the U.S. has witnessed dramatic declines in heart disease mortality since the 1960's, which have benefitted place and race groups unevenly, with slower declines in the South, especially for the Black population. Age-adjusted race- and county-specific mortality rates from 1968-2014 for all diseases of the heart were calculated for all Southern U.S. counties. Candidate confounding and mediating covariates from 1860, 1930, and 1970, were combined with mortality data in multivariable regression models to estimate the ecological association between the concentration of slavery in1860 and declines in heart disease mortality from 1968-2014. Black populations, in counties with a history of highest versus lowest concentration of slavery, experienced a 17% slower decline in heart disease mortality. The association for Black populations varied by region (stronger in Deep South than Upper South states) and was partially explained by intervening socioeconomic factors. In models accounting for spatial autocorrelation, there was no association between slave concentration and heart disease mortality decline for Whites. Nearly 50 years of declining heart disease mortality is a major public health success, but one marked by uneven progress by place and race. At the county level, progress in heart disease mortality reduction among Blacks is associated with place-based historical legacy of slavery. Effective and equitable public health prevention efforts should consider the historical context of place and the social and economic institutions that may play a role in facilitating or impeding diffusion of prevention efforts thereby producing heart healthy places and populations. Graphical abstract.

Emerging Infectious Disease Leads to Rapid Population Declines of Common British Birds

PubMed Central

Toms, Mike P.; Peck, Kirsi M.; Kirkwood, James K.; Chantrey, Julian; Clatworthy, Innes R.; Evans, Andy D.; Hughes, Laura A.; Hutchinson, Oliver C.; John, Shinto K.; Pennycott, Tom W.; Perkins, Matthew W.; Rowley, Peter S.; Simpson, Vic R.; Tyler, Kevin M.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

2010-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period. PMID:20805869

DISEASE COMPLEXITY IN A DECLINING ALASKAN MUSKOX (OVIBOS MOSCHATUS) POPULATION.

PubMed

Afema, Josephine A; Beckmen, Kimberlee B; Arthur, Stephen M; Huntington, Kathy Burek; Mazet, Jonna A K

2017-04-01

The muskox ( Ovibos moschatus ) population inhabiting the eastern North Slope (ENS) of Alaska, US declined dramatically during 1999-2006, whereas populations in western Alaska (WA) were stable or increasing. To understand morbidity and mortality factors contributing to the decline, Alaska Department of Fish and Game conducted pathologic investigations of carcasses from 2005 until 2008. Additionally, archived sera from both ENS and WA muskoxen collected during 1984-92, before the documented beginning of the ENS decline; sera collected during 2000, near the beginning of the decline; and contemporary sera (from live capture-release, adult females) collected during 2006, 2007, and 2008 were analyzed to determine whether prevalence of antibody to potential pathogens differed in the two areas or changed over time. The pathogens investigated were those that were believed could cause lameness or poor reproduction or adversely affect general health. Furthermore, trace mineral levels, hemograms, and gastrointestinal parasites were evaluated in live adult females captured 2006-08. Pathologic investigations identified several comorbid conditions, including predation, polyarthritis caused by or consistent with Chlamydophila spp. infection, hoof lesions, copper deficiency, contagious ecthyma, verminous pneumonia, hepatic lipidosis suggestive of negative energy balance, and bacterial bronchopneumonia due to Trueperella pyogenes and Bibersteinia trehalosi . Pathogens suspected to be newly introduced in the ENS muskox population on the basis of serologic detection include bovine viral diarrhea, respiratory syncytial virus, Chlamydophila spp., Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii , and Leptospira spp., whereas parainfluenza virus-3 antibody prevalence has increased in the WA population. Although multiple disease syndromes were identified that contributed to mortality and, in combination, likely limited the ENS muskox population, further holistic investigations of disease agents, trace mineral status, and nutritional factors in conjunction with intensive demographic and environmental analyses would provide a better understanding of factors that influence Alaskan muskox populations.

Chytridiomycosis in frogs of Mount Gede Pangrango, Indonesia.

PubMed

Kusrini, M D; Skerratt, L F; Garland, S; Berger, L; Endarwin, W

2008-12-22

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a fungus recognised as one of the causes of global amphibian population declines. To assess its occurrence, we conducted PCR diagnostic assays of 147 swab samples, from 13 species of frogs from Mount Gede Pangrango National Park, Indonesia. Four swab samples, from Rhacophorus javanus, Rana chalconota, Leptobrachium hasseltii and Limnonectes microdiscus, were positive for Bd and had low to moderate levels of infection. The sample from L. hasseltii was from a tadpole with mouthpart deformities and infection was confirmed by histology and immunohistochemistry. An additional sample from Leptophryne cruentata showed a very low level of infection (< or = 1 zoospore equivalent). This is the first record of Bd in Indonesia and in Southeast Asia, dramatically extending the global distribution of Bd, with important consequences for international amphibian disease control, conservation and trade. Consistent with declines in amphibian populations caused by Bd in other parts of the world, evidence exists for the decline and possible extirpation of amphibian populations at high elevations and some decline with recovery of populations at lower elevations on this mountain. Therefore, it is essential to manage Bd in Indonesia where it is likely to be threatening amphibian populations. This will require a national strategy to mitigate the spread of Bd in Indonesia and neighboring countries as well as the impact of that spread. It is also important to collect information on the extent of the impact of Bd on frog populations in Indonesia.

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

PubMed

Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-06-22

Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

China's Population Policy at the Crossroads: Social Impacts and Prospects

PubMed Central

Jiang, Quanbao; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W.

2015-01-01

China's total fertility rate fell below replacement level in the 1990s. From the 1970s the fertility rate declined dramatically, mainly as a consequence of the national population policy whose aim has been to limit birth numbers, control population growth and boost economic growth. Having achieved such a low fertility rate, how will China's population policy evolve in the future? This paper first reviews the history of China's population policy since 1970 in terms of three stages: 1970-1979; 1980-1999; and after 2000. We explore the impacts of China's population policy, including relief of pressure on China's environment and resources, fertility decline, the unexpectedly high male-biased sex ratio at birth (SRB), the coming shortage of labor force, and the rapid aging of the population. We also investigate ethical issues raised by the implementation of the policy and its results. Finally we introduce the controversy over potential adjustment of the policy, acknowledging the problems faced by western countries with low fertility and countermeasures they have taken. We offer some suggestions that might be appropriate in the Chinese context. PMID:26612983

Response of common murres to the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill and long-term changes in the Gulf of Alaska marine ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatt, John F.; Anderson, Paul; Rice, S.D.; Spies, R.B.; Wolfe, D.A.; Wright, B.A.

1996-01-01

Short-term effects of the 1989 TV Exxon Valdez oil spill on seabirds were dramatic and well documented. Seabird populations at sea in the spill zone were immediately depressed, and more than 30,000 dead, oiled seabirds were recovered from beaches within months of the spill. It is estimated that 250,000 seabirds were killed by oil, of which 74% were murres. Based on comparisons of prespill (1970s) and postspill (1989-1994) data, long-term effects on murres attributed to oil pollution included population declines, reduced breeding success, and delayed breeding phenology. Populations remained depressed, but breeding success phenology gradually returned to normal levels by 1993. An alternative hypothesis to explain these long-term effects is that murres were responding to natural events in their marine environment. Flow of the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC) was at an all-time low in 1989, and this may have reduced and delayed biological productivity in the ACC. On a broader time scale, marked changes in marine fish communities have occurred during the past 20 years. Coincident with cyclical fluctuations in seawater temperatures, the abundance of small forage species (e.g., humpy shrimp, capelin, and Pacific sandfish) declined precipitously in the late 1970s while populations of large predatory fish (e.g., walleye pollock, Pacific cod, and flatfish) increased dramatically. Correspondingly, seabird diets shifted from mostly capelin in the 1970s to mostly Pacific sand land and juvenile pollock in the late 1980s. Furthermore, a variety of seabirds and marine mammals both inside and outside of the oil spill zone exhibited signs of food stress (population declines, reduced productivity, die-offs) throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. We conclude that available data are inadequate to distinguish between long-term effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on murres and a natural response of murres to long-term changes in their marine environment.

Dramatic declines in neotropical salamander populations are an important part of the global amphibian crisis

PubMed Central

Rovito, Sean M.; Parra-Olea, Gabriela; Vásquez-Almazán, Carlos R.; Papenfuss, Theodore J.; Wake, David B.

2009-01-01

We document major declines of many species of salamanders at several sites in Central America and Mexico, with emphasis on the San Marcos region of Guatemala, one of the best studied and most diverse salamander communities in the Neotropics. Profound declines of several formerly abundant species, including 2 apparent extinctions, are revealed. Terrestrial microhabitat specialists at mid- to high elevations have declined more than microhabitat generalists. These terrestrial microhabitat specialists have largely disappeared from multiple sites in western Guatemala, including in well-protected areas, suggesting that the phenomenon cannot be explained solely by localized habitat destruction. Major declines in southern Mexican plethodontid salamanders occurred in the late 1970s to early 1980s, concurrent with or preceding many reported frog declines. The species in decline comprise several major evolutionary lineages of tropical salamanders, underscoring that significant portions of the phylogenetic diversity of Neotropical salamanders are at risk. Our results highlight the urgent need to document and understand Neotropical salamander declines as part of the larger effort to conserve global amphibian diversity. PMID:19204286

Hybridization Leads to Loss of Genetic Integrity in Shortleaf Pine: Unexpected Consequences of Pine Management and Fire Suppression

Treesearch

Charles G. Tauer; John F. Stewart; Rodney E. Will; Curtis J. Lilly; James M. Guldin; C. Dana Nelson

2012-01-01

Hybridization between shortleaf pine and loblolly pine is causing loss of genetic integrity (the tendency of a population to maintain its genotypes over generations) in shortleaf pine, a species already exhibiting dramatic declines due to land-use changes. Recent findings indicate hybridization has increased in shortleaf pine stands from 3% during the 1950s to 45% for...

Sage-Grouse on the edge: understanding and managing western landscapes for their survival

Treesearch

Noreen Parks; Michael J. Wisdom

2012-01-01

Populations of greater sage-grouse have declined dramatically across their North American range for many decades in response to harmful effects of a plethora of human activities and land uses, prompting legal actions to protect the species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). To evaluate the impacts of land-uses and habitat changes on sage-grouse, Michael Wisdom, a...

Poverty among Elderly Women and Minorities. Changing Domestic Priorities Discussion Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moon, Marilyn

Measured by cash income, the rate of poverty among the age 65 and older population has fallen dramatically, especially since 1974--from 25 percent in 1968 to 14.1 percent in 1983. However, this decline is the result more of an increase in poverty rates for the nonelderly in recent years than of major progress in reducing poverty for those over 65.…

The need for silvicultural practices and collection of butternut germplasm for species conservation

Treesearch

M. E. Ostry; B. Ellingson; D. Seekins; W. Ruckheim

2003-01-01

Butternut is a short-lived tree and is declining in numbers for a variety of reasons ranging from changing land use to aging forest stands, seed predation and lack of suitable conditions for reproduction. However, the major reason for the dramatic decrease in butternut populations throughout its range in North America is the lethal canker disease caused by the fungus...

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Dramatic Declines of Montane Frogs in a Central African Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Hirschfeld, Mareike; Blackburn, David C.; Doherty-Bone, Thomas M.; Gonwouo, LeGrand Nono; Ghose, Sonia; Rödel, Mark-Oliver

2016-01-01

Amphibian populations are vanishing worldwide. Declines and extinctions of many populations have been attributed to chytridiomycosis, a disease induced by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). In Africa, however, changes in amphibian assemblages were typically attributed to habitat change. We conducted a retrospective study utilizing field surveys from 2004–2012 of the anuran faunas on two mountains in western Cameroon, a hotspot of African amphibian diversity. The number of species detected was negatively influenced by year, habitat degradation, and elevation, and we detected a decline of certain species. Because another study in this region revealed an emergence of Bd in 2008, we screened additional recent field-collected samples and also pre-decline preserved museum specimens for the presence of Bd supporting emergence before 2008. When comparing the years before and after Bd detection, we found significantly diminished frog species richness and abundance on both mountains after Bd emergence. Our analyses suggest that this may be the first disease-driven community-level decline in anuran biodiversity in Central Africa. The disappearance of several species known to tolerate habitat degradation, and a trend of stronger declines at higher elevations, are consistent with Bd-induced declines in other regions. Not all species decreased; populations of some species remained constant, and others increased after the emergence of Bd. This variation might be explained by species-specific differences in infection probability. Increased habitat protection and Bd-mitigation strategies are needed for sustaining diverse amphibian communities such as those on Mt. Manengouba, which contains nearly half of Cameroon’s frog diversity. PMID:27149624

Dramatic Declines of Montane Frogs in a Central African Biodiversity Hotspot.

PubMed

Hirschfeld, Mareike; Blackburn, David C; Doherty-Bone, Thomas M; Gonwouo, LeGrand Nono; Ghose, Sonia; Rödel, Mark-Oliver

2016-01-01

Amphibian populations are vanishing worldwide. Declines and extinctions of many populations have been attributed to chytridiomycosis, a disease induced by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). In Africa, however, changes in amphibian assemblages were typically attributed to habitat change. We conducted a retrospective study utilizing field surveys from 2004-2012 of the anuran faunas on two mountains in western Cameroon, a hotspot of African amphibian diversity. The number of species detected was negatively influenced by year, habitat degradation, and elevation, and we detected a decline of certain species. Because another study in this region revealed an emergence of Bd in 2008, we screened additional recent field-collected samples and also pre-decline preserved museum specimens for the presence of Bd supporting emergence before 2008. When comparing the years before and after Bd detection, we found significantly diminished frog species richness and abundance on both mountains after Bd emergence. Our analyses suggest that this may be the first disease-driven community-level decline in anuran biodiversity in Central Africa. The disappearance of several species known to tolerate habitat degradation, and a trend of stronger declines at higher elevations, are consistent with Bd-induced declines in other regions. Not all species decreased; populations of some species remained constant, and others increased after the emergence of Bd. This variation might be explained by species-specific differences in infection probability. Increased habitat protection and Bd-mitigation strategies are needed for sustaining diverse amphibian communities such as those on Mt. Manengouba, which contains nearly half of Cameroon's frog diversity.

The abundance of the Lyme disease pathogen Borrelia afzelii declines over time in the tick vector Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Jacquet, Maxime; Genné, Dolores; Belli, Alessandro; Maluenda, Elodie; Sarr, Anouk; Voordouw, Maarten J

2017-05-25

The population dynamics of vector-borne pathogens inside the arthropod vector can have important consequences for vector-to-host transmission. Tick-borne spirochete bacteria of the Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu lato) species complex cause Lyme borreliosis in humans and spend long periods of time (>12 months) in their Ixodes tick vectors. To date, few studies have investigated the dynamics of Borrelia spirochete populations in unfed Ixodes nymphal ticks. Larval ticks from our laboratory colony of I. ricinus were experimentally infected with B. afzelii, and killed at 1 month and 4 months after the larva-to-nymph moult. The spirochete load was also compared between engorged larval ticks and unfed nymphs (from the same cohort) and between unfed nymphs and unfed adult ticks (from the same cohort). The spirochete load of B. afzelii in each tick was estimated using qPCR. The mean spirochete load in the 1-month-old nymphs (~14,000 spirochetes) was seven times higher than the 4-month-old nymphs (~2000 spirochetes). Thus, the nymphal spirochete load declined by 80% over a period of 3 months. An engorged larval tick acquired ~100 spirochetes, and this population was 20 times larger in a young, unfed nymph. The spirochete load also appeared to decline in adult ticks. Comparison between wild and laboratory populations found that lab ticks were more susceptible to acquiring B. afzelii. The spirochete load of B. afzelii declines dramatically over time in domesticated I. ricinus nymphs under laboratory conditions. Future studies should investigate whether temporal declines in spirochete load occur in wild Ixodes ticks under natural conditions and whether these declines influence the tick-to-host transmission of Borrelia.

Human-mediated extirpation of the unique Chatham Islands sea lion and implications for the conservation management of remaining New Zealand sea lion populations.

PubMed

Rawlence, Nicolas J; Collins, Catherine J; Anderson, Christian N K; Maxwell, Justin J; Smith, Ian W G; Robertson, Bruce C; Knapp, Michael; Horsburgh, Katherine Ann; Stanton, Jo-Ann L; Scofield, R Paul; Tennyson, Alan J D; Matisoo-Smith, Elizabeth A; Waters, Jonathan M

2016-08-01

While terrestrial megafaunal extinctions have been well characterized worldwide, our understanding of declines in marine megafauna remains limited. Here, we use ancient DNA analyses of prehistoric (<1450-1650 AD) sea lion specimens from New Zealand's isolated Chatham Islands to assess the demographic impacts of human settlement. These data suggest there was a large population of sea lions, unique to the Chatham Islands, at the time of Polynesian settlement. This distinct mitochondrial lineage became rapidly extinct within 200 years due to overhunting, paralleling the extirpation of a similarly large endemic mainland population. Whole mitogenomic analyses confirm substantial intraspecific diversity among prehistoric lineages. Demographic models suggest that even low harvest rates would likely have driven rapid extinction of these lineages. This study indicates that surviving Phocarctos populations are remnants of a once diverse and widespread sea lion assemblage, highlighting dramatic human impacts on endemic marine biodiversity. Our findings also suggest that Phocarctos bycatch in commercial fisheries may contribute to the ongoing population decline. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

PubMed Central

Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-01-01

Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess their relative contributions. PMID:23166666

Can migration mitigate the effects of ecosystem change? Patterns of dispersal, energy acquisition and allocation in Great Lakes lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rennie, Michael D.; Ebener, Mark P.; Wagner, Tyler

2012-01-01

Migration can be a behavioural response to poor or declining home range habitat quality and can occur when the costs of migration are overcome by the benefi ts of encountering higher-quality resources elsewhere. Despite dramatic ecosystem-level changes in the benthic food web of the Laurentian Great Lakes since the colonization of dreissenid mussels, coincident changes in condition and growth rates among benthivorous lake whitefi sh populations have been variable. We hypothesized that this variation could be in part mitigated by differences in migratory habits among populations, where increased migration distance can result in an increased probability of encountering high-quality habitat (relative to the home range). Results from four Great Lakes populations support this hypothesis; relative growth rates increased regularly with migration distance. The population with the largest average migration distance also had the least reduction in size-at-age during a period of signifi cant ecosystem change and among the highest estimated consumption and activity rates. In comparison, the population with the greatest declines in size-at-age was among the least mobile, demonstrating only moderate rates of consumption and activity. The least mobile population of lake whitefi sh was supported by a remnant Diporeia population and has experienced only moderate temporal growth declines. Our study provides evidence for the potential role of migration in mitigating the effects of ecosystem change on lake whitefi sh populations.

On forecasting mortality.

PubMed

Olshansky, S J

1988-01-01

Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors contributing to mortality change. A "multiple cause-delay model" more realistically portrays the effects on mortality of the presence of more favorable risk factors at the population level. Such revised assumptions produce large increases in forecasts of the size of the elderly population, and have a dramatic impact on related estimates of population morbidity, disability, and health care costs.

Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cimino, Megan A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Oliver, Matthew J.

2016-06-01

The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century.

Nest-site competition and killing by invasive parakeets cause the decline of a threatened bat population

PubMed Central

Carrete, Martina; Ibáñez, Carlos; Juste, Javier; Tella, José L.

2018-01-01

The identification of effects of invasive species is challenging owing to their multifaceted impacts on native biota. Negative impacts are most often reflected in individual fitness rather than in population dynamics of native species and are less expected in low-biodiversity habitats, such as urban environments. We report the long-term effects of invasive rose-ringed parakeets on the largest known population of a threatened bat species, the greater noctule, located in an urban park. Both species share preferences for the same tree cavities for breeding. While the number of parakeet nests increased by a factor of 20 in 14 years, the number of trees occupied by noctules declined by 81%. Parakeets occupied most cavities previously used by noctules, and spatial analyses showed that noctules tried to avoid cavities close to parakeets. Parakeets were highly aggressive towards noctules, trying to occupy their cavities, often resulting in noctule death. This led to a dramatic population decline, but also an unusual aggregation of the occupied trees, probably disrupting the complex social behaviour of this bat species. These results indicate a strong impact through site displacement and killing of competitors, and highlight the need for long-term research to identify unexpected impacts that would otherwise be overlooked. PMID:29892437

Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

PubMed

Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

2015-12-01

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in < 1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to -50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Bechstein's bats maintain individual social links despite a complete reorganisation of their colony structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baigger, A.; Perony, N.; Reuter, M.; Leinert, V.; Melber, M.; Grünberger, S.; Fleischmann, D.; Kerth, G.

2013-09-01

Several social mammals, including elephants and some primates, whales and bats, live in multilevel societies that form temporary subgroups. Despite these fission-fusion dynamics, group members often maintain long-term bonds. However, it is unclear whether such individual links and the resulting stable social subunits continue to exist after a complete reorganisation of a society, e.g. following a population crash. Here, we employed a weighted network analysis on 7,109 individual roosting records collected over 4 years in a wild Bechstein's bat colony. We show that, in response to a strong population decline, the colony's two stable social subunits fused into a non-modular social network. Nevertheless, in the first year after the crash, long-term bonds were still detectable, suggesting that the bats remembered previous individual relationships. Our findings are important for understanding the flexibility of animal societies in the face of dramatic changes and for the conservation of social mammals with declining populations.

Bechstein's bats maintain individual social links despite a complete reorganisation of their colony structure.

PubMed

Baigger, A; Perony, N; Reuter, M; Leinert, V; Melber, M; Grünberger, S; Fleischmann, D; Kerth, G

2013-09-01

Several social mammals, including elephants and some primates, whales and bats, live in multilevel societies that form temporary subgroups. Despite these fission-fusion dynamics, group members often maintain long-term bonds. However, it is unclear whether such individual links and the resulting stable social subunits continue to exist after a complete reorganisation of a society, e.g. following a population crash. Here, we employed a weighted network analysis on 7,109 individual roosting records collected over 4 years in a wild Bechstein's bat colony. We show that, in response to a strong population decline, the colony's two stable social subunits fused into a non-modular social network. Nevertheless, in the first year after the crash, long-term bonds were still detectable, suggesting that the bats remembered previous individual relationships. Our findings are important for understanding the flexibility of animal societies in the face of dramatic changes and for the conservation of social mammals with declining populations.

Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.

1993-01-01

Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O. virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

Disease and injury in California with projections to the year 2007. Implications for medical education.

PubMed Central

Ragland, D R; Buffler, P A; Reingold, A L; Syme, S L; Buffler, M L

1998-01-01

In this article, as part of an evaluation of the future of medical education in California, we characterize the distribution of disease and injury in California; identify major factors that affect the epidemiology of disease and injury in California, and project the burden of disease and injury for California's population to the year 2007. Our goal is to elucidate the major causes of illness and disability at present and in the near future in order to focus state resources on the interventions likely to have the greatest impact. Data from various governmental agencies were utilized; the base year, 1993, is the most recent year with sufficient information available when this report was prepared. Several major risk factors have decreased, including smoking (30% decline from 1984 to 1993) and drinking and driving. However, hypertension prevalence has not changed, and overweight has increased dramatically. Poverty continues to burden about 15% of Californians, with poverty highest among children. During 1993, 220,271 Californians died, with 3 major causes accounting for 61% of these deaths: coronary heart disease (31%), cancer (23%), and stroke (7%). In terms of potential years of life lost (years lost before age 65), the most important causes of death in 1993 were unintentional injury (756 years lost/100,000 population), cancer (632 years), and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS; 491 years). Mortality rates were highest among blacks and lowest among Asians. Overall mortality in California has been declining for decades; in just 1 decade, from 1980 to 1991, mortality declined from 780 to 680 deaths per 100,000 population. Several major causes of death have declined, including coronary heart disease, stroke, unintentional injury, cirrhosis, and suicide, while others have increased, for example, chronic obstructive lung disease and diabetes mellitus. Death from AIDS increased dramatically in the past decade, but is leveling off, and death from cancer is beginning to decline. Rates for overall mortality and morbidity, and for most specific conditions, should continue to decline. A projected 28% population increase by 2007 will yield a corresponding increase in the absolute level of disease cases and death; a disproportionate increase in younger and older groups will yield increased conditions affecting young (unintentional injury, AIDS) and older (heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes mellitus) people. Californians should experience overall improved health in coming years, reaping benefits of reduced environmental and behavioral risk factors as well as improved medical treatment and rehabilitation. Coordinated strategies for health promotion, disease prevention, delivery of medical treatment, and rehabilitation are needed to maintain and improve present levels of health across the life span. Images Figure 5. Figure 6. Figure 7. Figure 8. Figure 22. Figure 25. Figure 26. PMID:9614796

Regional decline of an iconic amphibian associated with elevation, land-use change, and invasive species.

PubMed

Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Peterson, Anna C; Kerby, Jacob L; Brown, Jennifer; Blaustein, Andrew R; Jackson, Tina

2011-06-01

Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)-historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America-have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2-28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non-native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low-elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best-supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at different spatial extents. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Reconciling findings on the employment effect of disability insurance.

PubMed

Bound, John; Lindner, Stephan; Waidmann, Timothy

2014-12-01

Over the last 25 years, the Social Security Disability Insurance Program (DI) has grown dramatically. During the same period, employment rates for men with work limitations showed substantial declines in both absolute and relative terms. While the timing of these trends suggests that the expansion of DI was a major contributor to employment decline among this group, raising questions about the targeting of disability benefits, studies using denied applicants suggest a more modest role of the DI expansion. To reconcile these findings, we decompose total employment changes into population and employment changes for three categories: DI beneficiaries, denied applicants, and non-applicants. Our results show that during the early 1990s, the growth in DI can fully explain the employment decline for men only under an extreme assumption about the employment potential of beneficiaries. For the period after the mid-1990s, we find little role for the DI program in explaining the continuing employment decline for men with work limitations.

Reconciling findings on the employment effect of disability insurance

PubMed Central

Bound, John; Lindner, Stephan; Waidmann, Timothy

2016-01-01

Over the last 25 years, the Social Security Disability Insurance Program (DI) has grown dramatically. During the same period, employment rates for men with work limitations showed substantial declines in both absolute and relative terms. While the timing of these trends suggests that the expansion of DI was a major contributor to employment decline among this group, raising questions about the targeting of disability benefits, studies using denied applicants suggest a more modest role of the DI expansion. To reconcile these findings, we decompose total employment changes into population and employment changes for three categories: DI beneficiaries, denied applicants, and non-applicants. Our results show that during the early 1990s, the growth in DI can fully explain the employment decline for men only under an extreme assumption about the employment potential of beneficiaries. For the period after the mid-1990s, we find little role for the DI program in explaining the continuing employment decline for men with work limitations. PMID:27158580

Declining scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.S.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

2000-01-01

The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issuesof concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breedingground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser scaup separately; this includes monitoring the breeding populations of each species separately, closer examination of existing data to improve surveys and data collection, and re-evaluation of the NAWMP population goal. These complex issues will require extensive cooperation and communication among many agencies and organizations in North America.

Declines of greater and lesser scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

2000-01-01

The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issues of concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breeding-ground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser scaup separately; this includes monitoring the breeding populations of each species separately, closer examination of existing data to improve surveys and data collection, and re-evaluation of the NAWMP population goal. These complex issues will require extensive cooperation and communication among many agencies and organizations in North America.

Grizzly bear predation links the loss of native trout to the demography of migratory elk in Yellowstone.

PubMed

Middleton, Arthur D; Morrison, Thomas A; Fortin, Jennifer K; Robbins, Charles T; Proffitt, Kelly M; White, P J; McWhirter, Douglas E; Koel, Todd M; Brimeyer, Douglas G; Fairbanks, W Sue; Kauffman, Matthew J

2013-07-07

The loss of aquatic subsidies such as spawning salmonids is known to threaten a number of terrestrial predators, but the effects on alternative prey species are poorly understood. At the heart of the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, an invasion of lake trout has driven a dramatic decline of native cutthroat trout that migrate up the shallow tributaries of Yellowstone Lake to spawn each spring. We explore whether this decline has amplified the effect of a generalist consumer, the grizzly bear, on populations of migratory elk that summer inside Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Recent studies of bear diets and elk populations indicate that the decline in cutthroat trout has contributed to increased predation by grizzly bears on the calves of migratory elk. Additionally, a demographic model that incorporates the increase in predation suggests that the magnitude of this diet shift has been sufficient to reduce elk calf recruitment (4-16%) and population growth (2-11%). The disruption of this aquatic-terrestrial linkage could permanently alter native species interactions in YNP. Although many recent ecological changes in YNP have been attributed to the recovery of large carnivores--particularly wolves--our work highlights a growing role of human impacts on the foraging behaviour of grizzly bears.

Grizzly bear predation links the loss of native trout to the demography of migratory elk in Yellowstone

PubMed Central

Middleton, Arthur D.; Morrison, Thomas A.; Fortin, Jennifer K.; Robbins, Charles T.; Proffitt, Kelly M.; White, P. J.; McWhirter, Douglas E.; Koel, Todd M.; Brimeyer, Douglas G.; Fairbanks, W. Sue; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2013-01-01

The loss of aquatic subsidies such as spawning salmonids is known to threaten a number of terrestrial predators, but the effects on alternative prey species are poorly understood. At the heart of the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, an invasion of lake trout has driven a dramatic decline of native cutthroat trout that migrate up the shallow tributaries of Yellowstone Lake to spawn each spring. We explore whether this decline has amplified the effect of a generalist consumer, the grizzly bear, on populations of migratory elk that summer inside Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Recent studies of bear diets and elk populations indicate that the decline in cutthroat trout has contributed to increased predation by grizzly bears on the calves of migratory elk. Additionally, a demographic model that incorporates the increase in predation suggests that the magnitude of this diet shift has been sufficient to reduce elk calf recruitment (4–16%) and population growth (2–11%). The disruption of this aquatic–terrestrial linkage could permanently alter native species interactions in YNP. Although many recent ecological changes in YNP have been attributed to the recovery of large carnivores—particularly wolves—our work highlights a growing role of human impacts on the foraging behaviour of grizzly bears. PMID:23677350

Grizzly bear predation links the loss of native trout to the demography of migratory elk in Yellowstone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Arthur D.; Morrison, Thomas A.; Fortin, Jennifer K.; Robbins, Charles T.; Proffitt, Kelly M.; White, P.J.; McWhirter, Douglas E.; Koel, Todd M.; Brimeyer, Douglas G.; Fairbanks, W. Sue; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2013-01-01

The loss of aquatic subsidies such as spawning salmonids is known to threaten a number of terrestrial predators, but the effects on alternative prey species are poorly understood. At the heart of the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, an invasion of lake trout has driven a dramatic decline of native cutthroat trout that migrate up the shallow tributaries of Yellowstone Lake to spawn each spring. We explore whether this decline has amplified the effect of a generalist consumer, the grizzly bear, on populations of migratory elk that summer inside Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Recent studies of bear diets and elk populations indicate that the decline in cutthroat trout has contributed to increased predation by grizzly bears on the calves of migratory elk. Additionally, a demographic model that incorporates the increase in predation suggests that the magnitude of this diet shift has been sufficient to reduce elk calf recruitment (4–16%) and population growth (2–11%). The disruption of this aquatic–terrestrial linkage could permanently alter native species interactions in YNP. Although many recent ecological changes in YNP have been attributed to the recovery of large carnivores—particularly wolves—our work highlights a growing role of human impacts on the foraging behaviour of grizzly bears.

What Happened to Nezara viridula (L.) in the Americas? Possible Reasons to Explain Populations Decline.

PubMed

Panizzi, A R; Lucini, T

2016-12-01

Once abundant in the Americas, the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (L.) has gradually declined in numbers. Until the 1990s, it was considered the main pest of major crops such as soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merrill, particularly in southern Brazil and southern USA, as well as Argentina, Uruguay, and other countries. In the past 15+ years, a dramatic population decrease was observed to the point of now being considered a secondary pest in these referred countries. In this article, we list and discuss possible reasons which explain the decline in N. viridula population in the Americas. These factors include the following: (1) the steady increase of herbicides used in no-tillage/multiple cropping systems affecting potential hosts such as weeds in crop fields and nearby natural vegetation; (2) the change in cultivation systems, mostly in the Neotropics, favoring other species more adapted to exploit crops in modern day agriculture; (3) competition among several species of stink bugs that colonize major crops; (4) the growing impact of several species of egg parasitoids, some of them laboratory reared and released in crop fields, and other natural enemies (parasitoids and predators); and (5) the impact of global climate change affecting its distribution and biology.

Reconstructing the historical distribution of the Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Northeast China based on historical records

PubMed Central

Yang, Li; Huang, Mujiao; Zhang, Rui; Lv, Jiang; Ren, Yueheng; Jiang, Zhe; Zhang, Wei; Luan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

Abstract The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation. PMID:27408548

Reconstructing the historical distribution of the Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Northeast China based on historical records.

PubMed

Yang, Li; Huang, Mujiao; Zhang, Rui; Lv, Jiang; Ren, Yueheng; Jiang, Zhe; Zhang, Wei; Luan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation.

Genetics Show Current Decline and Pleistocene Expansion in Northern Spotted Owls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, W. Chris; Forsman, Eric D.; Mullins, Thomas D.; Haig, Susan M.

2008-01-01

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is one of the most controversial threatened subspecies ever listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Because of concern for persistence of the subspecies, logging on Federal lands in the U.S. Pacific Northwest was dramatically reduced under the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994. Despite protection of its remaining forest habitat, recent field studies show continued demographic declines of northern spotted owls. One potential threat to northern spotted owls that has not yet been shown is loss of genetic variation from population bottlenecks that can increase inbreeding depression and decrease adaptive potential. Here, we show recent genetic bottlenecks in northern spotted owls using a large genetic dataset (352 individuals from across the subspecies' range and 11 microsatellite loci). The signature of bottlenecks was strongest in Washington State, in agreement with field data. Interestingly, we also found a genetic signature of Pleistocene expansion in the same study areas where recent bottlenecks were shown. Our results provide independent evidence that northern spotted owls have recently declined, and suggest that loss of genetic variation is an emerging threat to the subspecies' persistence. Reduced effective population size (Ne), shown here in addition to field evidence for demographic decline, highlights the increasing vulnerability of this bird to extinction.

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.

2013-01-01

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

A climate trend analysis of Sudan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, Jim; Rowland, Jim; Marshall, Michael

2011-01-01

Summer rains in western and southern Sudan have declined by 10-20 percent since the mid-1970s. Observed warming of more than 1 degree Celsius is equivalent to another 10-20 percent reduction in rainfall for crops. The warming and drying have impacted southern Darfur and areas around Juba. Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern Sudan's future food production prospects. In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, suggesting some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood. Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years.

Colonial Era Impoundment of the Northeastern United States: Beaver Trapping and Low- head Dam Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salant, N.; Bain, D.; Brandt, S.

2008-12-01

Hydrologic systems of the northeastern United States were transformed by European settler activities. The colonial economy shifted engineered water structures from beaver dams to human dams built for power generation. While the geomorphic effects of human-constructed dams have recently garnered considerable attention, few studies have investigated how intensive trapping for the fur trade, the near extermination of the Northeast beaver population, and the consequent loss of beaver ponds altered the regional water balance. Although reconstructions of colonial beaver populations have been made, none link the decline in beavers to its hydrologic impact. Beaver population models based on pre-colonial population estimates, historic harvest rates, and current-day population dynamics were used to simulate the corresponding decrease in pond numbers over time. Beaver populations declined dramatically during the seventeenth century, with harvest rates estimated at 2,000-10,000 beavers per year, resulting in expatriation in some sub-regions by the early 1700s. Using contemporary estimates of beaver pond volumes, the calculated loss in pond storage between 1600 and 1840 was approximately 17 million cubic meters of water and sediment, considerably larger than estimated storage gains from dam construction in the same period, suggesting that beaver eradication was a major driver of hydrologic change during the colonial era.

Research, management, and status of the osprey in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henny, C.J.; Chancellor, R.D.

1977-01-01

Osprey populations were studied throughout North America during the last decade as a result of dramatic declines reported along the North Atlantic Coast in the1950s and early 1960s. Researchers used banding, localized studies, aerial surveys, and pesticide analyses to identify factors influencing regional populations. Declining populations showed extremely poor production, contamination by environmental pollutants (including DDT and its metabolites, dieldrin, and polychlorinated biphenyls) and thin-shelled eggs. Following the reduced use and eventual ban of DDT and dieldrin, productivity began to improve. Improvement in affected populations, mainly those along the Atlantic Coast and in the Great Lakes region, began in the late 1960s and is continuing in the 1970s. Most populations in the South Atlantic region, in Western North America, and in Florida and the Gulf of California appeared to be producing at normal or near-normal rates in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Although some of the most severely affected populations are still not producing at normal rates, the pattern of improvement and an increase in management activities, including provision of nesting platforms and establishment of Osprey management zones, allow cautious optimism about the future of the species in North America. With its low recruitment potential, however, recovery will be slow.

[Speech by Oscar Julian Bardeci, director of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia (CELADE), at the Latinamerican Regional Meeting prior to the International Conference on Population in recognition of the Second Meeting on Population by the Committee of Upper-Level Government Experts (CEGAN), Havana, Cuba, November 16-19, 1983].

PubMed

Bardeci, O J

1983-12-01

This work examines the relationship between population growth and economic development in Latin America and assesses progress in the 10 years since the Bucharest World Population Conference. The Latin American population increased from about 159 million in 1950 to 275 million in 1970 and around 325 million in 1980. The rate of growth reached a maximum of 2.8%/year in the early 1970s and has now declined to about 2.3%/year. The regional growth rate is a product of population dynamics that differ greatly in individual countries. Crude birth rates declined in every country of Latin America between 1975-80, but still exceeded 40/1000 in 1980-85 in Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Current fertility is the result of the different trajectories of the demographic transition in different countries. While fertility in Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay underwent a slow but sustained decline that began prior to 1960, other countries including Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, and Venezuela began an accelerated fertility decline in the 1960s that diffused rapidly through all age and social groups. Other countries have still not entered a definite phase of fertility decline. Mortality rates have declined appreciably in Latin America in the past few decades although they remain high in some countries. After the end of World War II and until the mid-1970s, most countries of the region experienced rapid economic growth coupled with profound changes in the productive structure. The industrial labor force grew in almost all countries along with urbanization, the decline of agricultural employment, and the increase of the tertiary sector. These and other important economic advances through the mid-1970s occurred despite rapid population growth, and the beginning of the fertility decline coincided with slowing economic growth that saw negative rates in 1981-82. Various studies have shown that not all population sectors were incorporated in the process of economic and social development. The proportion of the population in active age groups has increased dramatically, but no corresponding increase in employment opportunities has occurred. The informal sector has absorbed most of the excess growth, a trend reflected in the exclusion of a large segment of the population from the fruits of economic progress. Population growth and increased life expectancy have created demands for more retirement benefits, health and educational services, transportation, recreation, and housing. Nevertheless, it cannot be concluded that rapid population growth necessarily has negative consequences for economic development or social welfare. There are indications that the problem of poverty in Latin America could be solved if the political will to do so existed; obstacles to overcoming poverty are not primarily material or population-related. Urbanization, settlement of marginal areas, and relative decline of agricultural areas are 3 trends in spatial distribution of varying intensity and repercussions in different countries.

A Longitudinal Study on Feeding Behaviour and Activity Patterns of Released Chimpanzees in Conkouati-Douli National Park, Republic of Congo

PubMed Central

Renaud, Amandine; Jamart, Aliette; Goossens, Benoit; Ross, Caroline

2013-01-01

Simple Summary Wild chimpanzee populations are dramatically declining due to anthropogenic pressure. One way of increasing wild population numbers and/or repopulating areas where local extinction has occurred is to release captive animals. HELP Congo was the first project to successfully release wild-born orphan chimpanzees in their natural environment. We studied the behaviour of eight released chimpanzees over eight years. Over time, they modified their behaviour, suggesting long-term behavioural and ecological adaptations. This suggests that successful release programmes may reinforce existing populations of endangered species. Abstract Wild chimpanzee populations are still declining due to logging, disease transmission and hunting. The bushmeat trade frequently leads to an increase in the number of orphaned primates. HELP Congo was the first project to successfully release wild-born orphan chimpanzees into an existing chimpanzee habitat. A collection of post monitoring data over 16 years now offers the unique opportunity to investigate possible behavioural adaptations in these chimpanzees. We investigated the feeding and activity patterns in eight individuals via focal observation techniques from 1997–1999 and 2001–2005. Our results revealed a decline in the number of fruit and insect species in the diet of released chimpanzees over the years, whereas within the same period of time, the number of consumed seed species increased. Furthermore, we found a decline in time spent travelling, but an increase in time spent on social activities, such as grooming, as individuals matured. In conclusion, the observed changes in feeding and activity patterns seem to reflect important long-term behavioural and ecological adaptations in wild-born orphan released chimpanzees, demonstrating that the release of chimpanzees can be successful, even if it takes time for full adaptation. PMID:26487416

Achieving the Goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy: Declining HIV Diagnoses, Improving Clinical Outcomes, and Diminishing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in King County, WA (2004-2013).

PubMed

Golden, Matthew R; Bennett, Amy B; Dombrowski, Julia C; Buskin, Susan E

2016-05-01

The US National HIV/AIDS Strategy defines national objectives related to HIV prevention and care. The extent to which US cities are meeting those objectives is uncertain. We analyzed King County, WA, HIV surveillance data collected between 2004 and 2013. The study population included 9539 persons diagnosed as having and living with HIV infection and 3779 persons with newly diagnosed HIV infection. Between 2004 and 2013, the rate of new HIV diagnosis decreased from 18.4 to 13.2 per 100,000 residents (decline of 28%); AIDS diagnosis rates declined 42% from 12 to 7 per 100,000; and age-adjusted death rates decreased from 27 to 15 per 1000 persons living with HIV/AIDS (decline of 42%; P<0.0001 for all 3 trends). The rate of new HIV diagnosis declined 26% among men who have sex with men (MSM; P=0.0002), with the largest decline occurring in black MSM (44%). Among 8679 individuals with laboratory results reported to National HIV Surveillance System from 2006 through 2013, viral suppression (viral load<200 copies/mL) increased from 45% to 86% (P<0.0001), with all racial/ethnic groups achieving greater than 80% viral suppression in 2013. The rates of new HIV diagnosis, AIDS diagnoses, and mortality in persons living with HIV in King County, WA, have significantly declined over the last decade. These changes have occurred concurrent with a dramatic increase in HIV viral suppression and have affected diverse populations, including MSM and African American MSM. These findings demonstrate substantial local success in achieving the goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Niels M.; Ims, Rolf A.; Høye, Toke T.; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H.; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Sittler, Benoit

2012-01-01

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state. PMID:22977153

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

PubMed

Schmidt, Niels M; Ims, Rolf A; Høye, Toke T; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C; Sittler, Benoit

2012-11-07

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

Patterns of Genetic Coding Variation in a Native American Population before and after European Contact.

PubMed

Lindo, John; Rogers, Mary; Mallott, Elizabeth K; Petzelt, Barbara; Mitchell, Joycelynn; Archer, David; Cybulski, Jerome S; Malhi, Ripan S; DeGiorgio, Michael

2018-05-03

The effects of European colonization on the genomes of Native Americans may have produced excesses of potentially deleterious features, mainly due to the severe reductions in population size and corresponding losses of genetic diversity. This assumption, however, neither considers actual genomic patterns that existed before colonization nor does it adequately capture the effects of admixture. In this study, we analyze the whole-exome sequences of modern and ancient individuals from a Northwest Coast First Nation, with a demographic history similar to other indigenous populations from the Americas. We show that in approximately ten generations from initial European contact, the modern individuals exhibit reduced levels of novel and low-frequency variants, a lower proportion of potentially deleterious alleles, and decreased heterozygosity when compared to their ancestors. This pattern can be explained by a dramatic population decline, resulting in the loss of potentially damaging low-frequency variants, and subsequent admixture. We also find evidence that the indigenous population was on a steady decline in effective population size for several thousand years before contact, which emphasizes regional demography over the common conception of a uniform expansion after entry into the Americas. This study examines the genomic consequences of colonialism on an indigenous group and describes the continuing role of gene flow among modern populations. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secular trends of chickenpox among military population in Israel in relation to introduction of varicella zoster vaccine 1979-2010.

PubMed

Mimouni, Daniel; Levine, Hagai; Tzurel Ferber, Anat; Rajuan-Galor, Inbal; Huerta-Hartal, Michael

2013-06-01

Chickenpox is a contagious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus. There is scarce data on long-term trends of chickenpox and its relation to vaccinations practices. We aimed to evaluate trends of chickenpox in a military population during the period 1979-2010 and to assess temporal associations in relation with the introduction of varicella zoster vaccine to the civilian population in Israel in 2000. The archives of the Epidemiology Section of the Israel Defense Forces, where chickenpox is a notifiable disease, were reviewed for all cases of chickenpox from January 1, 1979-December 31, 2010. Annual and monthly incidence rates were calculated and analyzed in relation to vaccine introduction. Between 1979-2000, incidence rates fluctuated around 10 cases per 10,000 soldiers without a clear trend. Since 2000 there has been a dramatic 10-fold decline in incidence, especially notable since 2008, from eight per 10,000 soldiers in 2000 to the lowest rate ever recorded, in 2009, of 0.57 cases per 10,000 soldiers. A seasonal sinusoidal pattern was clearly demonstrated, with rising incidence from November to May followed by a gradual decline to October. The results of this long-term study suggest that the rates of chickenpox in the military population have significantly declined since the introduction of the vaccine to the civilian population in Israel and almost disappeared completely since 2008 as the vaccine was included in the state-funded routine childhood immunization schedule. These findings underscore the need for a strong surveillance system and will aid in determing vaccination policies.

Investigating impacts of oil and gas development on greater sage-grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Adam; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael

2017-01-01

The sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem is one of the largest ecosystems in western North America providing habitat for species found nowhere else. Sagebrush habitats have experienced dramatic declines since the 1950s, mostly due to anthropogenic disturbances. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a sagebrush-obligate species that has experienced population declines over the last several decades, which are attributed to a variety of disturbances including the more recent threat of oil and gas development. We developed a hierarchical, Bayesian state-space model to investigate the impacts of 2 measures of oil and gas development, and environmental and habitat conditions, on sage-grouse populations in Wyoming, USA using male lek counts from 1984 to 2008. Lek attendance of male sage-grouse declined by approximately 2.5%/year and was negatively related to oil and gas well density. We found little support for the influence of sagebrush cover and precipitation on changes in lek counts. Our results support those of other studies reporting negative impacts of oil and gas development on sage-grouse populations and our modeling approach allowed us to make inference to a longer time scale and larger spatial extent than in previous studies. In addition to sage-grouse, development may also negatively affect other sagebrush-obligate species, and active management of sagebrush habitats may be necessary to maintain some species. 

Epidemiologic Evidence of a Relationship between Tea, Coffee, or Caffeine Consumption and Cognitive Decline12

PubMed Central

Arab, Lenore; Khan, Faraz; Lam, Helen

2013-01-01

A systematic literature review of human studies relating caffeine or caffeine-rich beverages to cognitive decline reveals only 6 studies that have collected and analyzed cognition data in a prospective fashion that enables study of decline across the spectrum of cognition. These 6 studies, in general, evaluate cognitive function using the Mini Mental State Exam and base their beverage data on FFQs. Studies included in our review differed in their source populations, duration of study, and most dramatically in how their analyses were done, disallowing direct quantitative comparisons of their effect estimates. Only one of the studies reported on all 3 exposures, coffee, tea, and caffeine, making comparisons of findings across studies more difficult. However, in general, it can be stated that for all studies of tea and most studies of coffee and caffeine, the estimates of cognitive decline were lower among consumers, although there is a lack of a distinct dose response. Only a few measures showed a quantitative significance and, interestingly, studies indicate a stronger effect among women than men. PMID:23319129

Epidemiologic evidence of a relationship between tea, coffee, or caffeine consumption and cognitive decline.

PubMed

Arab, Lenore; Khan, Faraz; Lam, Helen

2013-01-01

A systematic literature review of human studies relating caffeine or caffeine-rich beverages to cognitive decline reveals only 6 studies that have collected and analyzed cognition data in a prospective fashion that enables study of decline across the spectrum of cognition. These 6 studies, in general, evaluate cognitive function using the Mini Mental State Exam and base their beverage data on FFQs. Studies included in our review differed in their source populations, duration of study, and most dramatically in how their analyses were done, disallowing direct quantitative comparisons of their effect estimates. Only one of the studies reported on all 3 exposures, coffee, tea, and caffeine, making comparisons of findings across studies more difficult. However, in general, it can be stated that for all studies of tea and most studies of coffee and caffeine, the estimates of cognitive decline were lower among consumers, although there is a lack of a distinct dose response. Only a few measures showed a quantitative significance and, interestingly, studies indicate a stronger effect among women than men.

Seroprevalence of Brucella antibodies in harbor seals in Alaska, USA, with age, regional, and reproductive comparisons.

PubMed

Hoover-Miller, A; Dunn, J L; Field, C L; Blundell, G; Atkinson, S

2017-09-20

Populations of harbor seal Phoca vitulina in the Gulf of Alaska have dramatically declined during the past 4 decades. Numbers of seals in Glacier Bay, in southeast Alaska, USA, have also declined despite extensive protection. Causes of the declines and slow recovery are poorly understood. Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that adversely affects reproduction in many domestic species. We measured the seroprevalence of Brucella antibodies in 554 harbor seals in 3 Alaska locations: Prince William Sound (PWS), Glacier Bay (GB), and Tracy Arm Fords Terror (TAFT) Wilderness Area. Objectives included testing for regional, sex, age, and female reproductive state differences in Brucella antibody seroprevalence, persistence in titers in recaptured seals, and differences in titers between mother seals and their pups. Overall, 52% of adults (AD), 53% of subadults (SA), 77% of yearlings (YRL), and 26% of <5 mo old pups were seropositive. Matched mother-pup samples were consistent with dependent pups acquiring maternal passive immunity to Brucella. Results show higher seroprevalence (64%) for AD and SA seals in the depressed and declining populations in PWS and GB than in TAFT (29%). Lactating females were less likely to be seropositive than other AD females, including pregnant females. Further research is needed to seek evidence of Brucella infection in Alaskan harbor seals, identify effects on neonatal viability, and assess zoonotic implications for Alaska Natives who rely on harbor seals for food.

Europe's second demographic transition.

PubMed

Van De Kaa, D J

1987-03-01

By 1985, fertility rates in Europe were below the replacement level of 2.1 births/woman in all but Albania, Ireland, Malta, Poland, and Turkey, following a steady decline from a 1965 postwar peak well above 2.5 in Northern, Western, and Southern Europe and an erratic trend from a lower level in Eastern Europe. Natural decrease (fewer births than deaths) had begun already in Austria, Denmark, Hungary, and the Federal Republic of Germany and can be expected shortly in many other countries. According to current UN medium projections, Europe's population (minus the USSR) will grow only 6% between 1985 and 2025, from 492 to 524 million and 18.4% of the population in 2025 will be 65 and over. The decline to low fertility in the 1930s during Europe's 1st demographic transition was propelled by a concern for family and offspring. Behind the 2nd transition is a dramatic shift in norms toward progressiveness and individualism, which is moving Europeans away from marriage and parenthood. Cohabitation and out-of-wedlock fertility are increasingly acceptable; having a child is more and more a deliberate choice made to achieve greater self-fulfillment. Many Europeans view population decline and aging as threats to national influence and the welfare state. However, governments outside Eastern Europe, except for France, have hesitated to try politically risky and costly economic pronatalist incentives. As used in Eastern Europe, coupled with some restrictions on legal abortion, such incentives have not managed to boost fertility back up to replacement level. Immigration as a solution is unfeasible. All countries of immigration have now imposed strict controls, tried to stimulate return migration of guestworkers recruited during labor shortages of the 1960s and early 1970s, and now aim at rapid integration of minorities. Only measures compatible with the shift to individualism might slow or reverse the fertility decline, but a rebound to replacement level seems unlikely and long-term population decline appears inevitable for most of Europe.

Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, T.E.

2007-01-01

The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions of multiple trophic components. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system.

PubMed

Martin, Thomas E

2007-02-01

The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions of multiple trophic components.

Rapid regional recovery from sulfate and nitrate pollution in streams of the western Czech Republic - Comparison to other recovering areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Majer, V.; Kram, P.; Shanley, J.B.

2005-01-01

Hydrochemical changes between 1991 and 2001 were assessed based on two synoptic stream surveys from the 820-km2 region of the Slavkov Forest and surrounding area, western Czech Republic. Marked declines of sulfate, nitrate, chloride, calcium and magnesium in surface waters were compared with other areas of Europe and North America recovering from acidification. Declines of sulfate concentration in the Slavkov Forest (-30 ??eq L-1 yr-1) were more dramatic than declines reported from other sites. However, these dramatic declines of strong acid anions did not generate a widespread increase of stream water pH in the Slavkov Forest. Only the most acidic streams experienced a slight increase of pH by 0.5 unit. An unexpected decline of stream water pH occurred in slightly alkaline streams. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of migration on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Brockerhoff, M; Yang, X

1994-01-01

Much lower levels of fertility in urban than rural areas throughout sub-Saharan Africa imply that fertility decline in the region may be facilitated by rapid urbanization and rural-to-urban migration. The present study uses data from Demographic and Health Surveys in six countries--Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Senegal, Togo and Uganda--to assess the impact of long-term rural-urban female migration on fertility. Results of logit analyses indicate that in most countries women who leave the countryside represent the higher fertility segment of the rural population in the years before migration. Migrants' risk of conception declines dramatically in all countries around the time of migration and remains lower in the long run among most migrant groups than among rural and urban nonmigrants. Descriptive analyses suggest that the decline in migrant fertility is related to the rapid and pronounced improvement in standard of living experienced by migrants after settling in the urban area and may be due in part to temporary spousal separation.

Crop diversity loss as primary cause of grey partridge and common pheasant decline in Lower Saxony, Germany.

PubMed

Ronnenberg, Katrin; Strauß, Egbert; Siebert, Ursula

2016-09-09

The grey partridge (Perdix perdix) and the common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) are galliform birds typical of arable lands in Central Europe and exhibit a partly dramatic negative population trend. In order to understand general habitat preferences we modelled grey partridge and common pheasant densities over the entire range of Lower Saxony. Spatially explicit developments in bird densities were modelled using spatially explicit trends of crop cultivation. Pheasant and grey partridge densities counted annually by over 8000 hunting district holders over 10 years in a range of 3.7 Mio ha constitute a unique dataset (wildlife survey of Lower Saxony). Data on main landscape groups, functional groups of agricultural crops (consisting of 9.5 million fields compiled by the Integrated Administration and Control System) and landscape features were aggregated to 420 municipalities. To model linear 8 or 10 year population trends (for common pheasant and grey partridge respectively) we use rho correlation coefficients of densities, but also rho coefficients of agricultural crops. All models confirm a dramatic decline in population densities. The habitat model for the grey partridge shows avoidance of municipalities with a high proportion of woodland and water areas, but a preference for areas with a high proportion of winter grains and high crop diversity. The trend model confirms these findings with a linear positive effect of diversity on grey partridge population development. Similarly, the pheasant avoids wooded areas but showed some preference for municipalities with open water. The effect of maize was found to be positive at medium densities, but negative at very high proportions. Winter grains, landscape features and high crop diversity are favorable. The positive effect of winter grains and higher crop diversity is also supported by the trend model. The results show the strong importance of diverse crop cultivation. Most incentives favor the cultivation of specific crops, which results in large areas of monocultures. The results confirm the importance of sustainable agricultural policies.

Unintended pregnancy and the changing demography of American women, 1987–2008

PubMed Central

Tapales, Athena; Finer, Lawrence

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND In 1987, the U.S. unintended pregnancy rate was 59 per 1,000 women aged 15–44; the rate fell to 54 in 2008. Over this period, American women experienced dramatic demographic shifts, including an aging population that was better educated and more racially and ethnically diverse. OBJECTIVE This study aims to explain trends in unintended pregnancy and understand what factors contributed most strongly to changes in rates over time, focusing on population composition and group-specific changes. METHODS We used the 1988 and 2006–10 waves of the National Survey of Family Growth and employed a decomposition approach, looking jointly at age, relationship status, and educational attainment. RESULTS When we decomposed by the demographic factors together, we found that changes in population composition contributed to an increase in the overall rate, but this was more than offset by group-specific rate declines, which had an impact nearly twice as great in the downward direction. Increases in the share of the population that was cohabiting and the share that was Hispanic were offset by declines in rates among married women. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that a combination of compositional shifts and changes in group-specific rates drove unintended pregnancy, sometimes acting as counterbalancing forces and at other times operating in tandem. PMID:27147904

Global Demand for Natural Resources Eliminated More Than 100,000 Bornean Orangutans.

PubMed

Voigt, Maria; Wich, Serge A; Ancrenaz, Marc; Meijaard, Erik; Abram, Nicola; Banes, Graham L; Campbell-Smith, Gail; d'Arcy, Laura J; Delgado, Roberto A; Erman, Andi; Gaveau, David; Goossens, Benoit; Heinicke, Stefanie; Houghton, Max; Husson, Simon J; Leiman, Ashley; Sanchez, Karmele Llano; Makinuddin, Niel; Marshall, Andrew J; Meididit, Ari; Miettinen, Jukka; Mundry, Roger; Musnanda; Nardiyono; Nurcahyo, Anton; Odom, Kisar; Panda, Adventus; Prasetyo, Didik; Priadjati, Aldrianto; Purnomo; Rafiastanto, Andjar; Russon, Anne E; Santika, Truly; Sihite, Jamartin; Spehar, Stephanie; Struebig, Matthew; Sulbaran-Romero, Enrique; Tjiu, Albertus; Wells, Jessie; Wilson, Kerrie A; Kühl, Hjalmar S

2018-03-05

Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources is increasingly affecting the highly biodiverse tropics [1, 2]. Although rapid developments in remote sensing technology have permitted more precise estimates of land-cover change over large spatial scales [3-5], our knowledge about the effects of these changes on wildlife is much more sparse [6, 7]. Here we use field survey data, predictive density distribution modeling, and remote sensing to investigate the impact of resource use and land-use changes on the density distribution of Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus). Our models indicate that between 1999 and 2015, half of the orangutan population was affected by logging, deforestation, or industrialized plantations. Although land clearance caused the most dramatic rates of decline, it accounted for only a small proportion of the total loss. A much larger number of orangutans were lost in selectively logged and primary forests, where rates of decline were less precipitous, but where far more orangutans are found. This suggests that further drivers, independent of land-use change, contribute to orangutan loss. This finding is consistent with studies reporting hunting as a major cause in orangutan decline [8-10]. Our predictions of orangutan abundance loss across Borneo suggest that the population decreased by more than 100,000 individuals, corroborating recent estimates of decline [11]. Practical solutions to prevent future orangutan decline can only be realized by addressing its complex causes in a holistic manner across political and societal sectors, such as in land-use planning, resource exploitation, infrastructure development, and education, and by increasing long-term sustainability [12]. VIDEO ABSTRACT. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decomposing the crude divorce rate in five countries: Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, the UK, and Australia

PubMed Central

Chen, Mengni

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Over the past few decades, the level of divorce, measured by the crude divorce rate (CDR), has increased dramatically in both the East and the West, but has recently appeared to fall or level off in some countries. To investigate whether the recent decline or stabilisation of the CDRs reflects the real trends in divorce risk, a decomposition analysis was conducted on the changes in the CDRs over the past 20 years on two western and three East Asian countries, namely, the UK, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. The following is observed: the decline in the CDRs of the UK and Australia in the 1990s, and of Taiwan and Korea in the 2000s, was mainly due to shrinkage in the proportion of the married population rather than any reduction in divorce risk; only Australia experienced a genuine reduction in divorce risk between 2001 and 2011; and the continuous increase of Singapore’s divorce level between 1990 and 2010 may be is an unintentional effect of the government’s marriage promotion policies. The shift in the population age structure, and more importantly, the drastic decline in marriage, has seriously distorted the CDRs, making them unreliable indicators for monitoring divorce trends. PMID:29930691

Mental health and the labor force participation of older workers.

PubMed

Mitchell, J M; Anderson, K H

1989-01-01

Over the past 20 years, while mortality rates have dramatically declined, the prevalence of work-related stress has increased. This phenomenon suggests that the population's physical health has improved, but mental health has deteriorated. Concomitantly, fewer older workers are participating in the labor force. Our paper, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area (ECA) program, assesses whether the decline in numbers of older workers is linked to the increasing prevalence of job-related stress. Our results indicate that symptoms of poor mental health are the most important determinants of work behavior. Surprisingly, economic and demographic characteristics appear to have little impact on an individual's labor force participation status. Further research is needed, however, because the ECA data provides insufficient information to accurately assess the relative importance of both mental health and economic factors on the retirement decision.

Secular trends of chickenpox among military population in Israel in relation to introduction of varicella zoster vaccine 1979–2010

PubMed Central

Mimouni, Daniel; Levine, Hagai; Tzurel Ferber, Anat; Rajuan-Galor, Inbal; Huerta-Hartal, Michael

2013-01-01

Chickenpox is a contagious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus. There is scarce data on long-term trends of chickenpox and its relation to vaccinations practices. We aimed to evaluate trends of chickenpox in a military population during the period 1979–2010 and to assess temporal associations in relation with the introduction of varicella zoster vaccine to the civilian population in Israel in 2000. The archives of the Epidemiology Section of the Israel Defense Forces, where chickenpox is a notifiable disease, were reviewed for all cases of chickenpox from January 1, 1979–December 31, 2010. Annual and monthly incidence rates were calculated and analyzed in relation to vaccine introduction. Between 1979–2000, incidence rates fluctuated around 10 cases per 10,000 soldiers without a clear trend. Since 2000 there has been a dramatic 10-fold decline in incidence, especially notable since 2008, from eight per 10,000 soldiers in 2000 to the lowest rate ever recorded, in 2009, of 0.57 cases per 10,000 soldiers. A seasonal sinusoidal pattern was clearly demonstrated, with rising incidence from November to May followed by a gradual decline to October. The results of this long-term study suggest that the rates of chickenpox in the military population have significantly declined since the introduction of the vaccine to the civilian population in Israel and almost disappeared completely since 2008 as the vaccine was included in the state-funded routine childhood immunization schedule. These findings underscore the need for a strong surveillance system and will aid in determing vaccination policies. PMID:23412473

Field-based estimates of avian mortality from West Nile virus infection.

PubMed

Ward, Michael P; Beveroth, Tara A; Lampman, Richard; Raim, Arlo; Enstrom, David; Novak, Robert

2010-11-01

One of the unique characteristics of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America is the large number of bird species for which the virus can be fatal. WNV mortality has been documented through experimental infections of captive birds and necropsies of free-ranging birds. Investigations of WNV-related mortality in wild birds often focus on species with dramatic population declines (e.g., American Crow, Corvus brachyrhynchos); however, few studies have addressed WNV-related mortality in species not exhibiting marked population declines since the arrival of WNV. We conducted a mark-recapture study of 204 Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) in an area with endemic WNV activity to estimate WNV-related mortality. Previous research has shown that once a bird is infected and recovers from WNV it develops antibodies making it resistant to future infection. Assuming that mortality risks from non-WNV causes were the same for individuals with (had been exposed to WNV) and without antibodies (had not been exposed to WNV), we compared the survival rates of birds with and without WNV antibodies to estimate the impact of WNV on wild birds. An information theoretic approach was used, and the apparent survival was found to be 34.6% lower for individuals without antibodies during the period when WNV was most active (July-September). However, the apparent survival rate was 9.0% higher for individuals without antibodies over the rest of the year. These differences in apparent survival suggest that WNV increases mortality during the WNV season and that chronic effects of WNV infection may also be contributing to mortality. Although WNV appears to have increased mortality rates within the population, population trend data do not indicate declines, suggesting that some cardinal populations can compensate for WNV-related mortality.

Assessment of Competition between Fisheries and Steller Sea Lions in Alaska Based on Estimated Prey Biomass, Fisheries Removals and Predator Foraging Behaviour

PubMed Central

Hui, Tabitha C. Y.; Gryba, Rowenna; Gregr, Edward J.; Trites, Andrew W.

2015-01-01

A leading hypothesis to explain the dramatic decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in western Alaska during the latter part of the 20th century is a change in prey availability due to commercial fisheries. We tested this hypothesis by exploring the relationships between sea lion population trends, fishery catches, and the prey biomass accessible to sea lions around 33 rookeries between 2000 and 2008. We focused on three commercially important species that have dominated the sea lion diet during the population decline: walleye pollock, Pacific cod and Atka mackerel. We estimated available prey biomass by removing fishery catches from predicted prey biomass distributions in the Aleutian Islands, Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska; and modelled the likelihood of sea lions foraging at different distances from rookeries (accessibility) using satellite telemetry locations of tracked animals. We combined this accessibility model with the prey distributions to estimate the prey biomass accessible to sea lions by rookery. For each rookery, we compared sea lion population change to accessible prey biomass. Of 304 comparisons, we found 3 statistically significant relationships, all suggesting that sea lion populations increased with increasing prey accessibility. Given that the majority of comparisons showed no significant effect, it seems unlikely that the availability of pollock, cod or Atka mackerel was limiting sea lion populations in the 2000s. PMID:25950178

Assessment of Competition between Fisheries and Steller Sea Lions in Alaska Based on Estimated Prey Biomass, Fisheries Removals and Predator Foraging Behaviour.

PubMed

Hui, Tabitha C Y; Gryba, Rowenna; Gregr, Edward J; Trites, Andrew W

2015-01-01

A leading hypothesis to explain the dramatic decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in western Alaska during the latter part of the 20th century is a change in prey availability due to commercial fisheries. We tested this hypothesis by exploring the relationships between sea lion population trends, fishery catches, and the prey biomass accessible to sea lions around 33 rookeries between 2000 and 2008. We focused on three commercially important species that have dominated the sea lion diet during the population decline: walleye pollock, Pacific cod and Atka mackerel. We estimated available prey biomass by removing fishery catches from predicted prey biomass distributions in the Aleutian Islands, Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska; and modelled the likelihood of sea lions foraging at different distances from rookeries (accessibility) using satellite telemetry locations of tracked animals. We combined this accessibility model with the prey distributions to estimate the prey biomass accessible to sea lions by rookery. For each rookery, we compared sea lion population change to accessible prey biomass. Of 304 comparisons, we found 3 statistically significant relationships, all suggesting that sea lion populations increased with increasing prey accessibility. Given that the majority of comparisons showed no significant effect, it seems unlikely that the availability of pollock, cod or Atka mackerel was limiting sea lion populations in the 2000s.

Spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Joly, D.O.; Samuel, M.D.; Langenberg, J.A.; Blanchong, Julie A.; Batha, C.A.; Rolley, R.E.; Keane, D.P.; Ribic, C.A.

2006-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal, emerging disease of cervids associated with transmissible protease-resistant prion proteins. The potential for CWD to cause dramatic declines in deer and elk populations and perceived human health risks associated with consuming CWD-contaminated venison have led wildlife agencies to embark on extensive CWD control programs, typically involving culling to reduce deer populations. We characterized the spatial distribution of CWD in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Wisconsin to facilitate CWD management. We found that CWD prevalence declined with distance from a central location, was locally correlated at a scale of 3.6 km, and was correlated with deer habitat abundance. The latter result is consistent with patterns expected for a positive relationship between density and prevalence of CWD. We recommend management activities focused on culling in geographic areas with high prevalence to have the greatest probability of removing infected individuals. Further research is needed to elucidate the factors in envolved in CWD spread and infection rates, especially the role of density-dependent transmission. ?? Wildlife Disease Association 2006.

Rapid behavioral maturation accelerates failure of stressed honey bee colonies

PubMed Central

Perry, Clint J.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.

2015-01-01

Many complex factors have been linked to the recent marked increase in honey bee colony failure, including pests and pathogens, agrochemicals, and nutritional stressors. It remains unclear, however, why colonies frequently react to stressors by losing almost their entire adult bee population in a short time, resulting in a colony population collapse. Here we examine the social dynamics underlying such dramatic colony failure. Bees respond to many stressors by foraging earlier in life. We manipulated the demography of experimental colonies to induce precocious foraging in bees and used radio tag tracking to examine the consequences of precocious foraging for their performance. Precocious foragers completed far fewer foraging trips in their life, and had a higher risk of death in their first flights. We constructed a demographic model to explore how this individual reaction of bees to stress might impact colony performance. In the model, when forager death rates were chronically elevated, an increasingly younger forager force caused a positive feedback that dramatically accelerated terminal population decline in the colony. This resulted in a breakdown in division of labor and loss of the adult population, leaving only brood, food, and few adults in the hive. This study explains the social processes that drive rapid depopulation of a colony, and we explore possible strategies to prevent colony failure. Understanding the process of colony failure helps identify the most effective strategies to improve colony resilience. PMID:25675508

Rapid behavioral maturation accelerates failure of stressed honey bee colonies.

PubMed

Perry, Clint J; Søvik, Eirik; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2015-03-17

Many complex factors have been linked to the recent marked increase in honey bee colony failure, including pests and pathogens, agrochemicals, and nutritional stressors. It remains unclear, however, why colonies frequently react to stressors by losing almost their entire adult bee population in a short time, resulting in a colony population collapse. Here we examine the social dynamics underlying such dramatic colony failure. Bees respond to many stressors by foraging earlier in life. We manipulated the demography of experimental colonies to induce precocious foraging in bees and used radio tag tracking to examine the consequences of precocious foraging for their performance. Precocious foragers completed far fewer foraging trips in their life, and had a higher risk of death in their first flights. We constructed a demographic model to explore how this individual reaction of bees to stress might impact colony performance. In the model, when forager death rates were chronically elevated, an increasingly younger forager force caused a positive feedback that dramatically accelerated terminal population decline in the colony. This resulted in a breakdown in division of labor and loss of the adult population, leaving only brood, food, and few adults in the hive. This study explains the social processes that drive rapid depopulation of a colony, and we explore possible strategies to prevent colony failure. Understanding the process of colony failure helps identify the most effective strategies to improve colony resilience.

Cryptic herbivores mediate the strength and form of ungulate impacts on a long-lived savanna tree.

PubMed

Maclean, Janet E; Goheen, Jacob R; Doak, Daniel F; Palmer, Todd M; Young, Truman P

2011-08-01

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse array of herbivores that impose demographic filters throughout their life cycle. Few studies, however, simultaneously quantify the impacts of multiple herbivore guilds on the lifetime performance or population growth rate of plants. In African savannas, large ungulates (such as elephants) are widely regarded as important drivers of woody plant population dynamics, while the potential impacts of smaller, more cryptic herbivores (such as rodents) have largely been ignored. We combined a large-scale ungulate exclusion experiment with a five-year manipulation of rodent densities to quantify the impacts of three herbivore guilds (wild ungulates, domestic cattle, and rodents) on all life stages of a widespread savanna tree. We utilized demographic modeling to reveal the overall role of each guild in regulating tree population dynamics, and to elucidate the importance of different demographic hurdles in driving population growth under contrasting consumer communities. We found that wild ungulates dramatically reduced population growth, shifting the population trajectory from increase to decline, but that the mechanisms driving these effects were strongly mediated by rodents. The impact of wild ungulates on population growth was predominantly driven by their negative effect on tree reproduction when rodents were excluded, and on adult tree survival when rodents were present. By limiting seedling survival, rodents also reduced population growth; however, this effect was strongly dampened where wild ungulates were present. We suggest that these complex interactions between disparate consumer guilds can have important consequences for the population demography of long-lived species, and that the effects of a single consumer group are often likely to vary dramatically depending on the larger community in which interactions are embedded.

Demographic evidence of illegal harvesting of an endangered asian turtle.

PubMed

Sung, Yik-Hei; Karraker, Nancy E; Hau, Billy C H

2013-12-01

Harvesting pressure on Asian freshwater turtles is severe, and dramatic population declines of these turtles are being driven by unsustainable collection for food markets, pet trade, and traditional Chinese medicine. Populations of big-headed turtle (Platysternon megacephalum) have declined substantially across its distribution, particularly in China, because of overcollection. To understand the effects of chronic harvesting pressure on big-headed turtle populations, we examined the effects of illegal harvesting on the demography of populations in Hong Kong, where some populations still exist. We used mark-recapture methods to compare demographic characteristics between sites with harvesting histories and one site in a fully protected area. Sites with a history of illegal turtle harvesting were characterized by the absence of large adults and skewed ratios of juveniles to adults, which may have negative implications for the long-term viability of populations. These sites also had lower densities of adults and smaller adult body sizes than the protected site. Given that populations throughout most of the species' range are heavily harvested and individuals are increasingly difficult to find in mainland China, the illegal collection of turtles from populations in Hong Kong may increase over time. Long-term monitoring of populations is essential to track effects of illegal collection, and increased patrolling is needed to help control illegal harvesting of populations, particularly in national parks. Because few, if any, other completely protected populations remain in the region, our data on an unharvested population of big-headed turtles serve as an important reference for assessing the negative consequences of harvesting on populations of stream turtles. Evidencia Demográfica de la Captura Ilegal de una Tortuga Asiática en Peligro. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Malaria incidence in Myanmar 2005-2014: steady but fragile progress towards elimination.

PubMed

Mu, Thet Thet; Sein, Aye Aye; Kyi, Tint Tint; Min, Myo; Aung, Ne Myo; Anstey, Nicholas M; Kyaw, Myat Phone; Soe, Chit; Kyi, Mar Mar; Hanson, Josh

2016-10-18

There has been an impressive recent reduction in the global incidence of malaria, but the development of artemisinin resistance in the Greater Mekong Region threatens this progress. Increasing artemisinin resistance is particularly important in Myanmar, as it is the country in the Greater Mekong Region with the greatest malaria burden. If malaria is to be eliminated in the region, it is essential to define the spatial and temporal epidemiology of the disease in Myanmar to inform control strategies optimally. Between the years 2005 and 2014 there was an 81.1 % decline in the reported annual incidence of malaria in Myanmar (1341.8 cases per 100,000 population to 253.3 cases per 100,000 population). In the same period, there was a 93.5 % decline in reported annual mortality from malaria (3.79 deaths per 100,000 population to 0.25 deaths per 100,000 population) and a 87.2 % decline in the proportion of hospitalizations due to malaria (7.8 to 1.0 %). Chin State had the highest reported malaria incidence and mortality at the end of the study period, although socio-economic and geographical factors appear a more likely explanation for this finding than artemisinin resistance. The reduced malaria burden coincided with significant upscaling of disease control measures by the national government with support from international partners. These programmes included the training and deployment of over 40,000 community health care workers, the coverage of over 60 % of the at-risk population with insecticide-treated bed nets and significant efforts to improve access to artemesinin-based combination treatment. Beyond these malaria-specific programmes, increased general investment in the health sector, changing population demographics and deforestation are also likely to have contributed to the decline in malaria incidence seen over this time. There has been a dramatic fall in the burden of malaria in Myanmar since 2005. However, with the rise of artemisinin resistance, continued political, financial and scientific commitment is required if the ambitious goal of malaria elimination in the country is to be realized.

The business of self-monitoring of blood glucose: a market profile.

PubMed

Hughes, Mark D

2009-09-01

The market for self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) approached $8.8 billion worldwide in 2008. Yet despite dramatic double-digit growth in sales of SMBG products since 1980, the business is now facing declining prices and slower dollar growth. Given that SMBG meters and test strips are viewed by consumers and insurers as essentially generic products, it will be extremely challenging for new market entrants to displace well-entrenched existing competitors without a truly innovative technology. Also, in the face of declining glucose test strip prices, market expansion can only occur through identification of more of the undiagnosed diabetes population and convincing existing diabetes patients to adopt glucose testing or to test more frequently. Ultimately, a combination of technology innovations, patient education, and economic incentives may be needed to significantly expand the SMBG market and build sustainable long-term dollar growth for SMBG vendors. 2009 Diabetes Technology Society.

Collapse of the world's largest herbivores.

PubMed

Ripple, William J; Newsome, Thomas M; Wolf, Christopher; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Everatt, Kristoffer T; Galetti, Mauro; Hayward, Matt W; Kerley, Graham I H; Levi, Taal; Lindsey, Peter A; Macdonald, David W; Malhi, Yadvinder; Painter, Luke E; Sandom, Christopher J; Terborgh, John; Van Valkenburgh, Blaire

2015-05-01

Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass ≥100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that ~60% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs.

New medical risks affecting obstetrics after implementation of the two-child policy in China.

PubMed

Li, Qiang; Deng, Dongrui

2017-12-01

China recently instituted a two-child policy in response to its aging population, declining workforce and demographic dividend, and the need to develop asocial economy. Additionally, women generally delay having a second child because of the overwhelming pressure in their lives. With the improvements in assisted fertility technologies in recent years, the number of elderly women attempting to bear children has increased. The quality of woman's eggs and a man's sperm declined dramatically with increasing age, leading to an increased risk of pregnancy-related complications among older women. Therefore, the types of fertility problems experienced by elderly females must be provided with considerable attention by obstetricians. This commentary article focuses on the medical problems faced by older second-child pregnant women. This work discusses their increased rates of infertility, spontaneous abortion, fetal malformation, gestational diabetes, cesarean section, placenta previa, postpartum hemorrhage, postpartum depression, and hypertensive disorders, which complicate pregnancy.

Collapse of the world’s largest herbivores

PubMed Central

Ripple, William J.; Newsome, Thomas M.; Wolf, Christopher; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Everatt, Kristoffer T.; Galetti, Mauro; Hayward, Matt W.; Kerley, Graham I. H.; Levi, Taal; Lindsey, Peter A.; Macdonald, David W.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Painter, Luke E.; Sandom, Christopher J.; Terborgh, John; Van Valkenburgh, Blaire

2015-01-01

Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass ≥100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that ~60% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs. PMID:26601172

The Business of Self-Monitoring of Blood Glucose: A Market Profile

PubMed Central

Hughes, Mark D.

2009-01-01

The market for self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) approached $8.8 billion worldwide in 2008. Yet despite dramatic double-digit growth in sales of SMBG products since 1980, the business is now facing declining prices and slower dollar growth. Given that SMBG meters and test strips are viewed by consumers and insurers as essentially generic products, it will be extremely challenging for new market entrants to displace well-entrenched existing competitors without a truly innovative technology. Also, in the face of declining glucose test strip prices, market expansion can only occur through identification of more of the undiagnosed diabetes population and convincing existing diabetes patients to adopt glucose testing or to test more frequently. Ultimately, a combination of technology innovations, patient education, and economic incentives may be needed to significantly expand the SMBG market and build sustainable long-term dollar growth for SMBG vendors. PMID:20144440

Reproductive behaviour in the 1980s: Europe revisited. Council of Europe: an account of the work of a committee of experts on fertility trends.

PubMed

Deven, F

1985-01-01

This article highlights the findings of a 3-stage analysis conducted in 1982-85 by the Council of Europe Committee of Experts on Fertility Trends: The 1st phase involved a demographic analysis of reproductive behavior in the past decade, the 2nd focused on the background of recent fertility trends, and the 3rd examined possible consequences of these trends. Participating countries included Belgium, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland. During the 1970s; most of these countries experienced a continuation of the fertility decline begun in the mid-60s, resulting in the large majority of countries in below-replacement reproduction. In general, the effect of the fertility decline on the birth rate has been partially compensated by the favorable age structure of the reproductive age population. In the 1st half of the 1970s, both nuptiality and reproductive behavior in marriage contributed to the fertility decline; in the 2nd half, marital fertility showed increases. The fertility decline in the 1st half of the 1970s largely reflected the steep decline in fertility among younger age groups, whereas a rise in the fertility in the older age groups was a characteristic of the late 1970s. However, the stabilization or even slight increase in fertility noted in the late 1970s in several European countries reverted to a decline in the early 1980s. In general, small family size appears to be viewed as a good compromise between pyschological and economic costs and benefits. These low fertility trends have had a dramatic effect on household composition and have also facilitated women's personal growth and economic independence. These trends are expected to lead to demographic aging of the population and alleviation of pressures on the labor market. All such changes will require adaptive population policy measures. It is important that such policies do not endanger achievements of modernization such as human rights, fertility regulation, and female employment.

Importance of well-designed monitoring programs for the conservation of endangered species: case study of the Snail Kite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.

2007-01-01

Monitoring natural populations is often a necessary step to establish the conservation status of species and to help improve management decisions. Nevertheless, many monitoring programs do not effectively address primary sources of variability in monitoring data, which ultimately may limit the utility of monitoring in identifying declines and improving management. To illustrate the importance of taking into account detectability and spatial variation, we used a recently proposed estimator of abundance (superpopulation estimator) to estimate population size of and number of young produced by the Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus) in Florida. During the last decade, primary recovery targets set by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for the Snail Kite that were based on deficient monitoring programs (i.e., uncorrected counts) were close to being met (by simply increasing search effort during count surveys). During that same period, the Snail Kite population declined dramatically (by 55% from 1997 to 2005) and the number of young decreased by 70% between 1992?1998 and 1999?2005. Our results provide a strong practical case in favor of the argument that investing a sufficient amount of time and resources into designing and implementing monitoring programs that carefully address detectability and spatial variation is critical for the conservation of endangered species.

Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation

PubMed Central

Ackley, Sarah F.; Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.

2015-01-01

Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB) in Western Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explore effects of famine prior to 1900 on both TB and population dynamics. Malnutrition is recognized as an individual-level risk factor for TB progression and mortality; its population-level effects on TB epidemics have not been explored previously. Second, we explore effects of heterogeneity in susceptibility to TB in two ways: modeling heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, and heterogeneity in risk of developing disease once infected. Our results indicate that models lacking famine-related changes in TB parameters or heterogeneity result in an implausibly poor fit to both the TB mortality time series and census data; the inclusion of these features allows for the characteristic decline and rise in population observed in First Nations during this time period and confers improved fits to TB mortality data. PMID:26421237

The consequences of poaching and anthropogenic change for forest elephants.

PubMed

Breuer, Thomas; Maisels, Fiona; Fishlock, Vicki

2016-10-01

Poaching has devastated forest elephant populations (Loxodonta cyclotis), and their habitat is dramatically changing. The long-term effects of poaching and other anthropogenic threats have been well studied in savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana), but the impacts of these changes for Central Africa's forest elephants have not been discussed. We examined potential repercussions of these threats and the related consequences for forest elephants in Central Africa by summarizing the lessons learned from savannah elephants and small forest elephant populations in West Africa. Forest elephant social organization is less known than the social organization of savannah elephants, but the close evolutionary history of these species suggests that they will respond to anthropogenic threats in broadly similar ways. The loss of older, experienced individuals in an elephant population disrupts ecological, social, and population parameters. Severe reduction of elephant abundance within Central Africa's forests can alter plant communities and ecosystem functions. Poaching, habitat alterations, and human population increase are probably compressing forest elephants into protected areas and increasing human-elephant conflict, which negatively affects their conservation. We encourage conservationists to look beyond documenting forest elephant population decline and address the causes of these declines when developing conversation strategies. We suggest assessing the effectiveness of the existing protected-area networks for landscape connectivity in light of current industrial and infrastructure development. Longitudinal assessments of the effects of landscape changes on forest elephant sociality and behavior are also needed. Finally, lessons learned from West African elephant population loss and habitat fragmentation should be used to inform strategies for land-use planning and managing human-elephant interactions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

The needs of salmon and steelhead in balancing their conservation and use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burger, Carl V.; Knudsen, E. Eric; Steward, Cleveland R.; MacDonald, Donald D.; Williams, Jack E.; Reiser, Dudley W.

1999-01-01

Over the past 100 years, Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead trout O. mykiss populations in the Pacific Northwest have experienced dramatic declines as a result of human population growth and associated development of the region's natural resources. Any strategy to reverse those declines will depend on achieving consensus among a diverse group of stakeholders willing to (1) restore damaged habitats and watersheds; (2) consider the biological needs of salmonid fishes; and (3) understand, conserve, and manage existing levels of biodiversity within an ecosystem context. The objective of this chapter is to review and summarize the needs of Pacific salmon and steelhead trout from perspectives that promote their sustainability and perpetuity, and, within that context, provide a framework, for the development of a sustainable fisheries strategy. Although volumes of information are available on the life histories and habitat requirements of Pacific salmonids, new concepts have begun to address the importance of habitat complexity, genetic diversity among locally adapted populations, and the need for appropriate units of conservation. Habitat variability and complexity are the templates that produce diverse, locally adapted populations of Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. Molded by conditions in the environments they colonized, salmon and steelhead have unique adaptations they may have taken hundred i?? perhaps thousands i?? of years to evolve. Any strategy to reverse the declines of salmon and steelhead must focus on conserving both current levels of genetic diversity as well as restoration and maintenance of habitats compatible with the specific needs of individual populations. An argument can be made that we know enough already about the needs of our salmon and steelhead to allow us to make appropriate decisions. There is strong need to integrate what we know about local salmonid adaptations and habitat needs with conservation and management strategies that address the problems we have created. It may be possible to have healthy, sustainable salmonid populations coastwide if we do not wait too long to make up our minds.

Trends in Fracture Incidence: A Population-Based Study Over 20 Years

PubMed Central

Amin, S.; Achenbach, S. J.; Atkinson, E. J.; Khosla, S.; Melton, L. J.

2013-01-01

To assess recent trends in fracture incidence from all causes at all skeletal sites, we used the comprehensive (inpatient and outpatient) data resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to estimate rates for Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents in 2009–11, compared to similar data from 1989–91. During the three-year study period, 2009–11, 3549 residents ≥ 50 years of age experienced 5244 separate fractures. The age- and sex-adjusted (to the 2010 United States white population) incidence of any fracture was 2704 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 2614–2793) and that for all fractures was 4017 per 100,000 (95% CI 3908–4127). Fracture incidence increased with age in both sexes, but age-adjusted rates were 49% greater among the women. Overall, comparably adjusted fracture incidence rates increased by 11% (from 3627 to 4017 per 100,000 person-years; p = 0.008) between 1989–91 and 2009–2011. This was mainly due to a substantial increase in vertebral fractures (+47% for both sexes combined), which was partially offset by a decline in hip fractures (−25%) among the women. There was also a 26% reduction in distal forearm fractures among the women; an increase in distal forearm fractures among men age 50 years and over was not statistically significant. The dramatic increase in vertebral fractures, seen in both sexes and especially after age 75 years, was attributable in part to incidentally-diagnosed vertebral fractures. However, the fall in hip fracture incidence, observed in most age-groups, continues the steady decline observed among women in this community since 1950. More generally, these data indicate that the dramatic increases in the incidence of fractures at many skeletal sites that were observed decades ago have now stabilized. PMID:23959594

A dramatic, objective antiandrogen withdrawal response: case report and review of the literature.

PubMed

Lau, Yiu-Keung; Chadha, Manpreet K; Litwin, Alan; Trump, Donald L

2008-11-05

Antiandrogen withdrawal response is an increasingly recognized entity in patients with metastatic prostate cancer. To our knowledge, there have been no reports describing a durable radiologic improvement along with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) with discontinuation of the antiandrogen agent bicalutamide. We report a case in which a dramatic decline of serum PSA levels associated with a dramatic improvement in radiologic disease was achieved with bicalutamide discontinuation.

Limits to captive breeding of mammals in zoos.

PubMed

Alroy, John

2015-06-01

Captive breeding of mammals in zoos is the last hope for many of the best-known endangered species and has succeeded in saving some from certain extinction. However, the number of managed species selected is relatively small and focused on large-bodied, charismatic mammals that are not necessarily under strong threat and not always good candidates for reintroduction into the wild. Two interrelated and more fundamental questions go unanswered: have the major breeding programs succeeded at the basic level of maintaining and expanding populations, and is there room to expand them? I used published counts of births and deaths from 1970 to 2011 to quantify rates of growth of 118 captive-bred mammalian populations. These rates did not vary with body mass, contrary to strong predictions made in the ecological literature. Most of the larger managed mammalian populations expanded consistently and very few programs failed. However, growth rates have declined dramatically. The decline was predicted by changes in the ratio of the number of individuals within programs to the number of mammal populations held in major zoos. Rates decreased as the ratio of individuals in programs to populations increased. In other words, most of the programs that could exist already do exist. It therefore appears that debates over the general need for captive-breeding programs and the best selection of species are moot. Only a concerted effort could create room to manage a substantially larger number of endangered mammals. © 2015, Society for Conservation Biology.

Ichthyoplankton Time Series: A Potential Ocean Observing Network to Provide Indicators of Climate Impacts on Fish Communities along the West Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koslow, J. A.; Brodeur, R.; Duffy-Anderson, J. T.; Perry, I.; jimenez Rosenberg, S.; Aceves, G.

2016-02-01

Ichthyoplankton time series available from the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and California Current (Oregon to Baja California) provide a potential ocean observing network to assess climate impacts on fish communities along the west coast of North America. Larval fish abundance reflects spawning stock biomass, so these data sets provide indicators of the status of a broad range of exploited and unexploited fish populations. Analyses to date have focused on individual time series, which generally exhibit significant change in relation to climate. Off California, a suite of 24 midwater fish taxa have declined > 60%, correlated with declining midwater oxygen concentrations, and overall larval fish abundance has declined 72% since 1969, a trend based on the decline of predominantly cool-water affinity taxa in response to warming ocean temperatures. Off Oregon, there were dramatic differences in community structure and abundance of larval fishes between warm and cool ocean conditions. Midwater deoxygenation and warming sea surface temperature trends are predicted to continue as a result of global climate change. US, Canadian, and Mexican fishery scientists are now collaborating in a virtual ocean observing network to synthesize available ichthyoplankton time series and compare patterns of change in relation to climate. This will provide regional indicators of populations and groups of taxa sensitive to warming, deoxygenation and potentially other stressors, establish the relevant scales of coherence among sub-regions and across Large Marine Ecosystems, and provide the basis for predicting future climate change impacts on these ecosystems.

Mumps antibody in the Thai population 17 years after the universal measles mumps rubella vaccination program.

PubMed

Ngaovithunvong, Varisara; Wanlapakorn, Nasamon; Tesapirat, Lita; Suratannon, Narrissara; Poovorawan, Yong

2016-08-02

mumps vaccination implementation in the form of MMR - measles, mumps, and rubella) in Thailand for first-grade school students since 1997 and for infants 9-12 months of age since 2010 resulted in a dramatic decline in the incidence of and deaths from mumps. However, there has been a resurgence of mumps outbreaks in Thailand, even in vaccinated populations. We aimed to determine the current seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to mumps in those 0-60 years of age from four different geographic areas of Thailand, and compare the results with our previous serosurvey in 2004. Seropositivity rates in children 0-7 years of age increased significantly from 45.8% in 2004 to 72.3% in 2014 after the launch of the MMR vaccine for infants. In the 8-14-year age group who had received one dose of mumps vaccination, the seropositivity rate was 66.7%. In the 15-19-year age group the seropositivity rate was the lowest, at 52.5%. Our findings correspond well with the vaccination schedules, as the highest seropositivity rate was found in children between 0 and 7 years of age. For those older than 7, there was a decline in seropositivity rate despite good vaccine coverage and reached its lowest in the 15-19-year age group. This suggested that certain population groups might be incompletely vaccinated, or the humoral immunity provided by vaccination gradually declined over time. We recommend a booster dose of MMR vaccine for Thai adolescents in order to prevent future mumps outbreaks.

Progressive CD4+ central–memory T cell decline results in CD4+ effector–memory insufficiency and overt disease in chronic SIV infection

PubMed Central

Okoye, Afam; Meier-Schellersheim, Martin; Brenchley, Jason M.; Hagen, Shoko I.; Walker, Joshua M.; Rohankhedkar, Mukta; Lum, Richard; Edgar, John B.; Planer, Shannon L.; Legasse, Alfred; Sylwester, Andrew W.; Piatak, Michael; Lifson, Jeffrey D.; Maino, Vernon C.; Sodora, Donald L.; Douek, Daniel C.; Axthelm, Michael K.; Grossman, Zvi; Picker, Louis J.

2007-01-01

Primary simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infections of rhesus macaques result in the dramatic depletion of CD4+ CCR5+ effector–memory T (TEM) cells from extra-lymphoid effector sites, but in most infections, an increased rate of CD4+ memory T cell proliferation appears to prevent collapse of effector site CD4+ TEM cell populations and acute-phase AIDS. Eventually, persistent SIV replication results in chronic-phase AIDS, but the responsible mechanisms remain controversial. Here, we demonstrate that in the chronic phase of progressive SIV infection, effector site CD4+ TEM cell populations manifest a slow, continuous decline, and that the degree of this depletion remains a highly significant correlate of late-onset AIDS. We further show that due to persistent immune activation, effector site CD4+ TEM cells are predominantly short-lived, and that their homeostasis is strikingly dependent on the production of new CD4+ TEM cells from central–memory T (TCM) cell precursors. The instability of effector site CD4+ TEM cell populations over time was not explained by increasing destruction of these cells, but rather was attributable to progressive reduction in their production, secondary to decreasing numbers of CCR5− CD4+ TCM cells. These data suggest that although CD4+ TEM cell depletion is a proximate mechanism of immunodeficiency, the tempo of this depletion and the timing of disease onset are largely determined by destruction, failing production, and gradual decline of CD4+ TCM cells. PMID:17724130

Progressive CD4+ central memory T cell decline results in CD4+ effector memory insufficiency and overt disease in chronic SIV infection.

PubMed

Okoye, Afam; Meier-Schellersheim, Martin; Brenchley, Jason M; Hagen, Shoko I; Walker, Joshua M; Rohankhedkar, Mukta; Lum, Richard; Edgar, John B; Planer, Shannon L; Legasse, Alfred; Sylwester, Andrew W; Piatak, Michael; Lifson, Jeffrey D; Maino, Vernon C; Sodora, Donald L; Douek, Daniel C; Axthelm, Michael K; Grossman, Zvi; Picker, Louis J

2007-09-03

Primary simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infections of rhesus macaques result in the dramatic depletion of CD4(+) CCR5(+) effector-memory T (T(EM)) cells from extra-lymphoid effector sites, but in most infections, an increased rate of CD4(+) memory T cell proliferation appears to prevent collapse of effector site CD4(+) T(EM) cell populations and acute-phase AIDS. Eventually, persistent SIV replication results in chronic-phase AIDS, but the responsible mechanisms remain controversial. Here, we demonstrate that in the chronic phase of progressive SIV infection, effector site CD4(+) T(EM) cell populations manifest a slow, continuous decline, and that the degree of this depletion remains a highly significant correlate of late-onset AIDS. We further show that due to persistent immune activation, effector site CD4(+) T(EM) cells are predominantly short-lived, and that their homeostasis is strikingly dependent on the production of new CD4(+) T(EM) cells from central-memory T (T(CM)) cell precursors. The instability of effector site CD4(+) T(EM) cell populations over time was not explained by increasing destruction of these cells, but rather was attributable to progressive reduction in their production, secondary to decreasing numbers of CCR5(-) CD4(+) T(CM) cells. These data suggest that although CD4(+) T(EM) cell depletion is a proximate mechanism of immunodeficiency, the tempo of this depletion and the timing of disease onset are largely determined by destruction, failing production, and gradual decline of CD4(+) T(CM) cells.

Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Casper, Michele; Kramer, Michael R.; Quick, Harrison; Schieb, Linda J.; Vaughan, Adam S.; Greer, Sophia

2016-01-01

Background Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality. Methods and Results Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties. Conclusions The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality. PMID:27002081

Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States: 1973 to 2010.

PubMed

Casper, Michele; Kramer, Michael R; Quick, Harrison; Schieb, Linda J; Vaughan, Adam S; Greer, Sophia

2016-03-22

Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality. Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties. The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

A dramatic, objective antiandrogen withdrawal response: case report and review of the literature

PubMed Central

Lau, Yiu-Keung; Chadha, Manpreet K; Litwin, Alan; Trump, Donald L

2008-01-01

Antiandrogen withdrawal response is an increasingly recognized entity in patients with metastatic prostate cancer. To our knowledge, there have been no reports describing a durable radiologic improvement along with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) with discontinuation of the antiandrogen agent bicalutamide. We report a case in which a dramatic decline of serum PSA levels associated with a dramatic improvement in radiologic disease was achieved with bicalutamide discontinuation. PMID:18986533

Predictions replaced by facts: a keystone species' behavioural responses to declining arctic sea-ice.

PubMed

Hamilton, Charmain D; Lydersen, Christian; Ims, Rolf A; Kovacs, Kit M

2015-11-01

Since the first documentation of climate-warming induced declines in arctic sea-ice, predictions have been made regarding the expected negative consequences for endemic marine mammals. But, several decades later, little hard evidence exists regarding the responses of these animals to the ongoing environmental changes. Herein, we report the first empirical evidence of a dramatic shift in movement patterns and foraging behaviour of the arctic endemic ringed seal (Pusa hispida), before and after a major collapse in sea-ice in Svalbard, Norway. Among other changes to the ice-regime, this collapse shifted the summer position of the marginal ice zone from over the continental shelf, northward to the deep Arctic Ocean Basin. Following this change, which is thought to be a 'tipping point', subadult ringed seals swam greater distances, showed less area-restricted search behaviour, dived for longer periods, exhibited shorter surface intervals, rested less on sea-ice and did less diving directly beneath the ice during post-moulting foraging excursions. In combination, these behavioural changes suggest increased foraging effort and thus also likely increases in the energetic costs of finding food. Continued declines in sea-ice are likely to result in distributional changes, range reductions and population declines in this keystone arctic species. © 2015 The Author(s).

Cryptic extinction of a common Pacific lizard Emoia impar (Squamata, Scincidae) from the Hawaiian Islands.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, Robert; Ineich, Ivan

2012-01-01

Most documented declines of tropical reptiles are of dramatic or enigmatic species. Declines of widespread species tend to be cryptic. The early (1900s) decline and extinction of the common Pacific skink Emoia impar from the Hawaiian Islands is documented here through an assessment of literature, museum vouchers and recent fieldwork. This decline appears contemporaneous with the documented declines of invertebrates and birds across the Hawaiian Islands. A review of the plausible causal factors indicates that the spread of the introduced big-headed ant Pheidole megacephala is the most likely factor in this lizard decline. The introduction and spread of a similar skink Lampropholis delicata across the islands appears to temporally follow the decline of E. impar, although there is no evidence of competition between these species. It appears that L. delicata is spreading to occupy the niche vacated by the extirpated E. impar. Further confusion exists because the skink E. cyanura, which is very similar in appearance to E. impar, appears to have been introduced to one site within a hotel on Kaua'i and persisted as a population at that site for approximately 2 decades (1970s–1990s) but is now also extirpated. This study highlights the cryptic nature of this early species extinction as evidence that current biogeographical patterns of non-charismatic or enigmatic reptiles across the Pacific may be the historical result of early widespread invasion by ants. Conservation and restoration activities for reptiles in the tropical Pacific should consider this possibility and evaluate all evidence prior to any implementation.

Population decline induced by gonorrhoea and tuberculosis transmission: Micronesia during the Japanese occupation, 1919–45

PubMed Central

Singer, Burton H.

2011-01-01

The islands of Yap in Micronesia survived a period of severe depopulation during the Japanese occupation from 1919 to 1945. Using data from historical documents, supplemented by ethnographic evidence, we calibrate a simulation model that accounts for this phenomenon. Our model tracks the reproduction histories of a synthetic cohort of women in Yap, including effects of infertility due to gonorrhoea as well as tuberculosis mortality, and predicts the net reproduction rate (NRR). In this particular case and throughout history, human migrations and associated social and cultural interactions have frequently been accompanied by dramatic changes in patterns of disease transmission and substantial demographic consequences. Despite the broad emphasis on mortality as a measure of demographic consequences in the historical and contemporary literature, there are important instances where life expectancy at birth, fertility rates, and total population size are important demographic consequences. We find that gonorrhoea may have significantly contributed to depopulation during the Japanese occupation of Micronesia, due to repeated infections and high risk of sterility. Results of our model suggest that gonorrhoea alone could have reduced the net reproduction rate by 82%, whereas deaths from tuberculosis may have contributed to a 17% decline. PMID:21666856

Diphtheria in the United States, 1971-81.

PubMed Central

Chen, R T; Broome, C V; Weinstein, R A; Weaver, R; Tsai, T F

1985-01-01

After a decade-long resurgence, including a large cutaneous diphtheria outbreak in Washington State, the diphtheria incidence rate in the United States reached its lowest recorded level ever in 1980--two patients (0.01 case per million). Mortality paralleled the decline in incidence rate. Only 143 of the 3,141 US counties reported noncutaneous diphtheria patients during 1971-81; most were located in the West. The highest attack rates were experienced by children less than 15 years old (0.8 case per million) and by American Indians (22.6 cases per million). Persons immunized with three or more doses of diphtheria toxoid had a lower death-to-case ratio (1.3 per cent) than totally unimmunized persons (13.4 per cent). The reasons for the dramatic decline in diphtheria incidence rates are unclear, although it has been postulated that the gene for producing diphtheria toxin may be lost from organisms in highly immunized populations. Significant proportions of the adult and elderly populations are susceptible to diphtheria. Continuation of primary immunization with increased emphasis on the routine use of tetanus and diphtheria toxoids (Td) boosters in adults should ensure that diphtheria will remain largely a scourge of the past. PMID:4061710

Millennial-scale sustainability of the Chesapeake Bay Native American oyster fishery

PubMed Central

Rick, Torben C.; Reeder-Myers, Leslie A.; Hofman, Courtney A.; Breitburg, Denise; Lockwood, Rowan; Henkes, Gregory; Kellogg, Lisa; Lowery, Darrin; Luckenbach, Mark W.; Mann, Roger; Ogburn, Matthew B.; Southworth, Melissa; Wah, John; Wesson, James; Hines, Anson H.

2016-01-01

Estuaries around the world are in a state of decline following decades or more of overfishing, pollution, and climate change. Oysters (Ostreidae), ecosystem engineers in many estuaries, influence water quality, construct habitat, and provide food for humans and wildlife. In North America’s Chesapeake Bay, once-thriving eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) populations have declined dramatically, making their restoration and conservation extremely challenging. Here we present data on oyster size and human harvest from Chesapeake Bay archaeological sites spanning ∼3,500 y of Native American, colonial, and historical occupation. We compare oysters from archaeological sites with Pleistocene oyster reefs that existed before human harvest, modern oyster reefs, and other records of human oyster harvest from around the world. Native American fisheries were focused on nearshore oysters and were likely harvested at a rate that was sustainable over centuries to millennia, despite changing Holocene climatic conditions and sea-level rise. These data document resilience in oyster populations under long-term Native American harvest, sea-level rise, and climate change; provide context for managing modern oyster fisheries in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere around the world; and demonstrate an interdisciplinary approach that can be applied broadly to other fisheries. PMID:27217572

Millennial-scale sustainability of the Chesapeake Bay Native American oyster fishery.

PubMed

Rick, Torben C; Reeder-Myers, Leslie A; Hofman, Courtney A; Breitburg, Denise; Lockwood, Rowan; Henkes, Gregory; Kellogg, Lisa; Lowery, Darrin; Luckenbach, Mark W; Mann, Roger; Ogburn, Matthew B; Southworth, Melissa; Wah, John; Wesson, James; Hines, Anson H

2016-06-07

Estuaries around the world are in a state of decline following decades or more of overfishing, pollution, and climate change. Oysters (Ostreidae), ecosystem engineers in many estuaries, influence water quality, construct habitat, and provide food for humans and wildlife. In North America's Chesapeake Bay, once-thriving eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) populations have declined dramatically, making their restoration and conservation extremely challenging. Here we present data on oyster size and human harvest from Chesapeake Bay archaeological sites spanning ∼3,500 y of Native American, colonial, and historical occupation. We compare oysters from archaeological sites with Pleistocene oyster reefs that existed before human harvest, modern oyster reefs, and other records of human oyster harvest from around the world. Native American fisheries were focused on nearshore oysters and were likely harvested at a rate that was sustainable over centuries to millennia, despite changing Holocene climatic conditions and sea-level rise. These data document resilience in oyster populations under long-term Native American harvest, sea-level rise, and climate change; provide context for managing modern oyster fisheries in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere around the world; and demonstrate an interdisciplinary approach that can be applied broadly to other fisheries.

Reducing the Digital Divide: Connecting Older Adults to iPad Technology.

PubMed

Delello, Julie A; McWhorter, Rochell R

2017-01-01

America's older adult population is increasing at a dramatic rate due to better health care, technology, and improved living conditions. However, as individuals 65 years and older begin to live longer and experience multiple life changes, there is a larger incidence of social isolation leading to loneliness, depression, and a general decline in health. This mixed-method study aimed to explore whether information and communication technologies, specifically iPads, improved the lives of older adults. Our findings suggest that the use of technology increased knowledge, elicited closer family ties, and led to a greater overall connection to society. © The Author(s) 2015.

The PONS study and its place in the strategy of health gain in Poland.

PubMed

Zatoński, Witold A

2011-01-01

After 30 years (1960-1990) of adult health decline, since the beginning of the political and economic transformation in the early 1990s.a dramatic reversal of health trends is being observed in Poland, In contrast, in the countries of Western Europe, a significant, steady health gain has been observed already since the end of World War II. At the beginning of the 21 st century one in three men in Poland still do not reach the age of 65, which dramatically contrasts with the one-digit premature mortality in Western Europe (EU15). In Poland very high proportion of this mortality (men ~30%, women ~15%) occur in working age population hampering social and economic development. Non-communicable diseases and risk factors (smoking, drinking, obesity) are major cause of heath inequality and contribute to poverty. This health gap, leading to an over-proportional loss of human capital in Eastern Europe, is one of the most crucial challenges for the European Union during the period of economic crisis.

Dramatic Declines in Higher Education Appropriations: State Conditions for Budget Punctuations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Amy Y.

2017-01-01

Public colleges and universities depend heavily on state appropriations and legislatures must decide how much to fund higher education. This study applies punctuated equilibrium theory to characterize the distribution of annual changes in higher education appropriations and defines the threshold for a dramatic budget cut. Using data for the 50…

Background Study on Employment and Labour Market in Romania.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ciobanu, Adrian; Parciog, Speranta

Romania's adoption of a more gradual approach in restructuring and privatizing the state-owned sector has resulted in industry with an unchanged structure that remains the main cause of social and economic decline. Employment has shown a steady decline. Industrial employment has decreased dramatically. Sectors like transport, hotels, and…

Agricultural landscapes: Can they support healthy bird populations as well as farm products?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.

2003-01-01

At the beginning of the twentieth century, prospects for bird populations occupying farmlands were promising. Agricultural expansion and the resulting deforestation produced wholesale changes to the landscape of eastern North America (Trautman 1977, Zeranski and Baptist 1990, Nicholson 1997). Regional avifaunas were transformed as Horned Larks (Eremophila alpestris), Dickcissels (Spiza americana), and other farmland birds undertook range expansions (Hurley and Franks 1976, Askins 1999). Those farmland birds became conspicuous, frequently in numbers that are hard to imagine today (Trautman 1940).One hundred years later, many of those once plentiful species experienced dramatic population declines (Askins 1993, Peterjohn and Sauer 1999). Those trends were evident for many decades, although pre-1965 trends were largely based on anecdotal accounts and were frequently attributed to changing regional landscapes due to urban expansion, farm abandonment resulting in increased forest cover, and the more intensive use of remaining agricultural fields (Trautman 1940, Herkert 1991, Askins 2000). However, numerous specific factors were implicated in local declines of individual species (Kantrud 1981, Bollinger et al. 1990, Lymn and Temple 1991, Bowen and Kruse 1993, Herkert 1994, Houston and Schmutz 1999, Blackwell and Dolbeer 2001).Understanding factors responsible for population changes can be approached at various geographic scales. Local studies identify specific factors influencing small populations, but the applicability of those results across broad geographic areas is often uncertain. Studies conducted at large geographic scales identify broad patterns of change, but those patterns frequently involve interrelated factors that may be only loosely related to the actual causes of population change. However, correlations between broad patterns of changes in bird populations and land-use characteristics provide a basis for directing future studies conducted at smaller geographic scales.

Time-specific and population-level differences in physiological responses of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) and golden shiners (Notemigonus crysoleucas) exposed to copper.

PubMed

Peles, John D; Pistole, David H; Moffe, Mickey C

2012-03-01

The influence of exposure time on gill Na+/K+ ATPase activity and metabolic rate in populations of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) and golden shiners (Notemigonus crysoleucas) hatcheries in Ohio (OH) and Pennsylvania (PA) when exposed to sublethal concentrations of copper (Cu) was examined. The pattern of change in gill Na+/K+ ATPase activity was similar in all species/populations and results support expectations based on the concept of acclimation. In all populations, Na+/K+ ATPase activity declined significantly compared to reference values within 24 h, recovered by 48 h, and then continued to increase before exceeding reference values by 192 h. With the exception of PA fathead minnows, Na+/K+ ATPase activities returned to reference levels by 384 h. Although metabolic rates of individual fish were not strongly correlated with Na+/K+ ATPase activities, the pattern of change in mean values of these physiological parameters was very similar. However, OH populations of both fathead minnows and golden shiners demonstrated much more dramatic changes in metabolic rate compared to PA fish. At 24 h, metabolic rate of PA fathead minnows had decreased by 16% compared to the reference value whereas the OH population had decreased by 31%; metabolic rate of PA golden shiners declined by 23% compared to 59% in OH shiners at 24 h. Similar differences were observed in the maximum metabolic rates achieved at 192 h. While the increased sensitivity of OH fish to Cu is not readily explainable by genetic or environmental factors, results suggest the need for considering population level differences when evaluating the physiological effects of toxicants. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in the leading causes of injury mortality, Australia, Canada, and the United States, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Mack, Karin; Clapperton, Angela; Macpherson, Alison; Sleet, David; Newton, Donovan; Murdoch, James; Mackay, J Morag; Berecki-Gisolf, Janneke; Wilkins, Natalie; Marr, Angela; Ballesteros, Michael; McClure, Roderick

2017-06-16

The aim of this study was to highlight the differences in injury rates between populations through a descriptive epidemiological study of population-level trends in injury mortality for the high-income countries of Australia, Canada and the United States. Mortality data were available for the US from 2000 to 2014, and for Canada and Australia from 2000 to 2012. Injury causes were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision external cause codes, and were grouped into major causes. Rates were direct-method age-adjusted using the US 2000 projected population as the standard age distribution. US motor vehicle injury mortality rates declined from 2000 to 2014 but remained markedly higher than those of Australia or Canada. In all three countries, fall injury mortality rates increased from 2000 to 2014. US homicide mortality rates declined, but remained higher than those of Australia and Canada. While the US had the lowest suicide rate in 2000, it increased by 24% during 2000-2014, and by 2012 was about 14% higher than that in Australia and Canada. The poisoning mortality rate in the US increased dramatically from 2000 to 2014. Results show marked differences and striking similarities in injury mortality between the countries and within countries over time. The observed trends differed by injury cause category. The substantial differences in injury rates between similarly resourced populations raises important questions about the role of societal-level factors as underlying causes of the differential distribution of injury in our communities.

Microsatellite variation reveals weak genetic structure and retention of genetic variability in threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within a Snake River watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, Helen; Issacs, Frank B.; Thurow, Russel; Dunham, J.B.; Rieman, B.

2007-01-01

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) have been central to the development of management concepts associated with evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), yet there are still relatively few studies of genetic diversity within threatened and endangered ESUs for salmon or other species. We analyzed genetic variation at 10 microsatellite loci to evaluate spatial population structure and genetic variability in indigenous Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) across a large wilderness basin within a Snake River ESU. Despite dramatic 20th century declines in abundance, these populations retained robust levels of genetic variability. No significant genetic bottlenecks were found, although the bottleneck metric (M ratio) was significantly correlated with average population size and variability. Weak but significant genetic structure existed among tributaries despite evidence of high levels of gene flow, with the strongest genetic differentiation mirroring the physical segregation of fish from two sub-basins. Despite the more recent colonization of one sub-basin and differences between sub-basins in the natural level of fragmentation, gene diversity and genetic differentiation were similar between sub-basins. Various factors, such as the (unknown) genetic contribution of precocial males, genetic compensation, lack of hatchery influence, and high levels of current gene flow may have contributed to the persistence of genetic variability in this system in spite of historical declines. This unique study of indigenous Chinook salmon underscores the importance of maintaining natural populations in interconnected and complex habitats to minimize losses of genetic diversity within ESUs.

Simulated population responses of common carp to commercial exploitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Michael J.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Brown, Michael L.

2011-12-01

Common carp Cyprinus carpio is a widespread invasive species that can become highly abundant and impose deleterious ecosystem effects. Thus, aquatic resource managers are interested in controlling common carp populations. Control of invasive common carp populations is difficult, due in part to the inherent uncertainty of how populations respond to exploitation. To understand how common carp populations respond to exploitation, we evaluated common carp population dynamics (recruitment, growth, and mortality) in three natural lakes in eastern South Dakota. Common carp exhibited similar population dynamics across these three systems that were characterized by consistent recruitment (ages 3 to 15 years present),more » fast growth (K = 0.37 to 0.59), and low mortality (A = 1 to 7%). We then modeled the effects of commercial exploitation on size structure, abundance, and egg production to determine its utility as a management tool to control populations. All three populations responded similarly to exploitation simulations with a 575-mm length restriction, representing commercial gear selectivity. Simulated common carp size structure modestly declined (9 to 37%) in all simulations. Abundance of common carp declined dramatically (28 to 56%) at low levels of exploitation (0 to 20%) but exploitation >40% had little additive effect and populations were only reduced by 49 to 79% despite high exploitation (>90%). Maximum lifetime egg production was reduced from 77 to 89% at a moderate level of exploitation (40%), indicating the potential for recruitment overfishing. Exploitation further reduced common carp size structure, abundance, and egg production when simulations were not size selective. Our results provide insights to how common carp populations may respond to exploitation. Although commercial exploitation may be able to partially control populations, an integrated removal approach that removes all sizes of common carp has a greater chance of controlling population abundance and reducing perturbations induced by this invasive species.« less

A conceptual life-history model for pallid and shovelnose sturgeon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; DeLonay, Aaron J.; Papoulias, Diana M.; Galat, David L.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Simpkins, Darin G.; Braaten, P. J.; Korschgen, Carl E.; Mac, Michael J.

2007-01-01

Intensive management of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers has resulted in dramatic physical changes to these rivers. These changes have been implicated as causative agents in the decline of pallid sturgeon. The pallid sturgeon, federally listed as endangered, is endemic to the turbid waters of the Missouri River and the Lower Mississippi River. The sympatric shovelnose sturgeon historically was more common and widespread than the pallid sturgeon. Habitat alteration, river regulation, pollution, and over-harvest have resulted in the now predictable patterns of decline and localized extirpation of sturgeon across species and geographic areas. Symptomatic of this generalized pattern of decline is poor reproductive success, and low or no recruitment of wild juveniles to the adult population. The purpose of this report is to introduce a conceptual life-history model of the factors that affect reproduction, growth, and survival of shovelnose and pallid sturgeons. The conceptual model provided here was developed to organize the understanding about the complex life history of Scaphirhynchus sturgeons. It was designed to be used for communication, planning, and to provide the structure for a population-forecasting model. These models are intended to be dynamic and responsive to new information and changes in river management, thereby providing scientists, stakeholders, and managers with ways to improve understanding of the effects of management actions on the ecological requirements of Scaphirhynchus sturgeons. As new scientific knowledge becomes available, it could be included in the model in many ways at various integration levels.

From cooperation to combat: adverse effect of thermal stress in a symbiotic coral-crustacean community.

PubMed

Stella, J S; Munday, P L; Walker, S P W; Pratchett, M S; Jones, G P

2014-04-01

Although mutualisms are ubiquitous in nature, our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on these important ecological interactions is deficient. Here, we report on a thermal stress-related shift from cooperation to antagonism between members of a mutualistic coral-dwelling community. Increased mortality of coral-defending crustacean symbionts Trapezia cymodoce (coral crab) and Alpheus lottini (snapping shrimp) was observed in response to experimentally elevated temperatures and reduced coral-host (Pocillopora damicornis) condition. However, strong differential numerical effects occurred among crustaceans as a function of species and sex, with shrimp (75%), and female crabs (55%), exhibiting the fastest and greatest declines in numbers. These declines were due to forceful eviction from the coral-host by male crabs. Furthermore, surviving female crabs were impacted by a dramatic decline (85%) in egg production, which could have deleterious consequences for population sustainability. Our results suggest that elevated temperature switches the fundamental nature of this interaction from cooperation to competition, leading to asymmetrical effects on species and/or sexes. Our study illustrates the importance of evaluating not only individual responses to climate change, but also potentially fragile interactions within and among susceptible species.

Reduced population size does not affect the mating strategy of a vulnerable and endemic seabird

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava, Cristina; Neves, Verónica C.; Andris, Malvina; Dubois, Marie-Pierre; Jarne, Philippe; Bolton, Mark; Bried, Joël

2017-12-01

Bottleneck episodes may occur in small and isolated animal populations, which may result in decreased genetic diversity and increased inbreeding, but also in mating strategy adjustment. This was evaluated in the vulnerable and socially monogamous Monteiro's Storm-petrel Hydrobates monteiroi, a seabird endemic to the Azores archipelago which has suffered a dramatic population decline since the XVth century. To do this, we conducted a genetic study (18 microsatellite markers) in the population from Praia islet, which has been monitored over 16 years. We found no evidence that a genetic bottleneck was associated with this demographic decline. Monteiro's Storm-petrels paired randomly with respect to genetic relatedness and body measurements. Pair fecundity was unrelated to genetic relatedness between partners. We detected only two cases of extra-pair parentage associated with an extra-pair copulation (out of 71 offspring). Unsuccessful pairs were most likely to divorce the next year, but genetic relatedness between pair mates and pair breeding experience did not influence divorce. Divorce enabled individuals to improve their reproductive performances after re-mating only when the new partner was experienced. Re-pairing with an experienced partner occurred more frequently when divorcees changed nest than when they retained their nest. This study shows that even in strongly reduced populations, genetic diversity can be maintained, inbreeding does not necessarily occur, and random pairing is not risky in terms of pair lifetime reproductive success. Given, however, that we found no clear phenotypic mate choice criteria, the part played by non-morphological traits should be assessed more accurately in order to better understand seabird mating strategies.

Estimating sample size for landscape-scale mark-recapture studies of North American migratory tree bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Laura E.; Lukacs, Paul M.

2014-01-01

Concern for migratory tree-roosting bats in North America has grown because of possible population declines from wind energy development. This concern has driven interest in estimating population-level changes. Mark-recapture methodology is one possible analytical framework for assessing bat population changes, but sample size requirements to produce reliable estimates have not been estimated. To illustrate the sample sizes necessary for a mark-recapture-based monitoring program we conducted power analyses using a statistical model that allows reencounters of live and dead marked individuals. We ran 1,000 simulations for each of five broad sample size categories in a Burnham joint model, and then compared the proportion of simulations in which 95% confidence intervals overlapped between and among years for a 4-year study. Additionally, we conducted sensitivity analyses of sample size to various capture probabilities and recovery probabilities. More than 50,000 individuals per year would need to be captured and released to accurately determine 10% and 15% declines in annual survival. To detect more dramatic declines of 33% or 50% survival over four years, then sample sizes of 25,000 or 10,000 per year, respectively, would be sufficient. Sensitivity analyses reveal that increasing recovery of dead marked individuals may be more valuable than increasing capture probability of marked individuals. Because of the extraordinary effort that would be required, we advise caution should such a mark-recapture effort be initiated because of the difficulty in attaining reliable estimates. We make recommendations for what techniques show the most promise for mark-recapture studies of bats because some techniques violate the assumptions of mark-recapture methodology when used to mark bats.

A mechanistic link between chick diet and decline in seabirds?

PubMed Central

Kitaysky, Alexander S; Kitaiskaia, Evgenia V; Piatt, John F; Wingfield, John C

2005-01-01

A climatic regime shift during the mid-1970s in the North Pacific resulted in decreased availability of lipid-rich fish to seabirds and was followed by a dramatic decline in number of kittiwakes breeding on the Pribilof Islands. Although production of chicks in the mid-1970s was adequate to sustain kittiwake populations in the early 1980s, the disappearance of birds from breeding colonies apparently exceeded recruitment. No mechanism has been proposed to explain why recruitment would differ among fledglings fed lipid-rich or lipid-poor fish during development. Here we show that diets low in lipids induce nutritional stress and impair cognitive abilities in young red-legged kittiwakes, Rissa brevirostris. Specifically, growth retardation, increased secretion of stress hormones and inferior ability to associate food distribution with visual cues were observed in individuals fed lipid-poor diets. We conclude that lipid-poor diets during development affect the quality of young seabirds, which is likely to result in their increased mortality and low recruitment. PMID:16615211

Rubella in Israel after the MMR vaccine: elimination or containment?

PubMed

Anis, Emilia; Grotto, Itamar; Moerman, Larisa; Kaliner, Ehud; Warshavsky, Bruce; Slater, Paul E; Lev, Boaz

2013-05-01

Since 1996, after the full institution of the two-dose measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) regimen in Israel, rubella incidence has declined dramatically and has remained extremely low. Cyclical outbreaks ended; the two brief outbreaks that did occur were quickly contained; and epidemiological data indicate that the disease is practically absent from the country. But similar steep declines in the incidence of measles and mumps, the two other MMR-preventable diseases, were followed by major outbreaks in 2007 and 2010. Epidemiological analyses show that undervaccination of subgroups within the Jewish ultra-orthodox population, both in Israel and abroad, and virus importation into Israel, continue to be risk factors for all three MMR-preventable diseases. Israel's public health system, therefore, should focus on a policy of containment: improve MMR coverage among undervaccinated subgroups and assure that virus importation is no longer a risk. Then the goal of rubella elimination will become feasible. We discuss how the Israeli experience may contribute to the World Health Organization Initiative to eliminate simultaneously measles and rubella.

A mechanistic link between chick diet and decline in seabirds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kitaysky, A.S.; Kitaiskaia, E.V.; Piatt, John F.; Wingfield, J.C.

2006-01-01

A climatic regime shift during the mid-1970s in the North Pacific resulted in decreased availability of lipidrich fish to seabirds and was followed by a dramatic decline in number of kittiwakes breeding on the Pribilof Islands. Although production of chicks in the mid-1970s was adequate to sustain kittiwake populations in the early 1980s, the disappearance of birds from breeding colonies apparently exceeded recruitment. No mechanism has been proposed to explain why recruitment would differ among fledglings fed lipid-rich or lipid-poor fish during development. Here we show that diets low in lipids induce nutritional stress and impair cognitive abilities in young red-legged kittiwakes, Rissa brevirostris. Specifically, growth retardation, increased secretion of stress hormones and inferior ability to associate food distribution with visual cues were observed in individuals fed lipid-poor diets. We conclude that lipid-poor diets during development affect the quality of young seabirds, which is likely to result in their increased mortality and low recruitment. ?? 2005 The Royal Society.

Rapid Decline of a Grassland System and Its Ecological and Conservation Implications

PubMed Central

Ceballos, Gerardo; Davidson, Ana; List, Rurik; Pacheco, Jesús; Manzano-Fischer, Patricia; Santos-Barrera, Georgina; Cruzado, Juan

2010-01-01

One of the most important conservation issues in ecology is the imperiled state of grassland ecosystems worldwide due to land conversion, desertification, and the loss of native populations and species. The Janos region of northwestern Mexico maintains one of the largest remaining black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colony complexes in North America and supports a high diversity of threatened and endangered species. Yet, cattle grazing, agriculture, and drought have greatly impacted the region. We evaluated the impact of human activities on the Janos grasslands, comparing changes in the vertebrate community over the last two decades. Our results reveal profound, rapid changes in the Janos grassland community, demonstrating large declines in vertebrate abundance across all taxonomic groups. We also found that the 55,000 ha prairie dog colony complex has declined by 73% since 1988. The prairie dog complex has become increasingly fragmented, and their densities have shown a precipitous decline over the years, from an average density of 25 per ha in 1988 to 2 per ha in 2004. We demonstrated that prairie dogs strongly suppressed woody plant encroachment as well as created open grassland habitat by clearing woody vegetation, and found rapid invasion of shrubland once the prairie dogs disappeared from the grasslands. Comparison of grasslands and shrublands showed markedly different species compositions, with species richness being greatest when both habitats were considered together. Our data demonstrate the rapid decline of a grassland ecosystem, and documents the dramatic loss in biodiversity over a very short time period concomitant with anthropogenic grassland degradation and the decline of a keystone species. PMID:20066035

Association of Human Q Fever with Animal Husbandry, Taiwan, 2004-2012.

PubMed

Lai, Chung-Hsu; Chang, Lin-Li; Lin, Jiun-Nong; Liao, Ming-Huei; Liu, Shyh-Shyan; Lee, Hsu-Hsun; Lin, Hsi-Hsun; Chen, Yen-Hsu

2015-12-01

In Taiwan, Q fever cases in humans began increasing in 2004 and peaked in 2007 but dramatically declined in 2008 and 2011. Cases were significantly correlated with the number of goats. The decline might be associated with the collateral effects of measures to control goat pox in 2008 and 2010.

NEA Report: Reading at Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arts Education Policy Review, 2004

2004-01-01

Literary reading is in dramatic decline, with fewer than half of American adults now reading literature, according to a July 2004 report by the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA). The survey "Reading at Risk: A Survey of Literary Reading in America" reports drops in all groups studied, with the steepest rate of decline--28…

Public land grazing for private land conservation?

Treesearch

Adriana Sulak; Lynn Huntsinger; Sheila Barry; Larry Forero

2008-01-01

California ranchers with substantial private oak woodlands sometimes use public lands as an important component of their production cycle. Yet allowed public grazing has declined and is likely to continue to decline. This, combined with intensifying development pressure and land use change, dramatically affects the resource base for ranch operations, which in turn...

Genetic connectivity among swarming sites in the wide ranging and recently declining little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus)

PubMed Central

Burns, Lynne E; Frasier, Timothy R; Broders, Hugh G

2014-01-01

Characterizing movement dynamics and spatial aspects of gene flow within a species permits inference on population structuring. As patterns of structuring are products of historical and current demographics and gene flow, assessment of structure through time can yield an understanding of evolutionary dynamics acting on populations that are necessary to inform management. Recent dramatic population declines in hibernating bats in eastern North America from white-nose syndrome have prompted the need for information on movement dynamics for multiple bat species. We characterized population genetic structure of the little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus, at swarming sites in southeastern Canada using 9 nuclear microsatellites and a 292-bp region of the mitochondrial genome. Analyses of FST, ΦST, and Bayesian clustering (STRUCTURE) found weak levels of genetic structure among swarming sites for the nuclear and mitochondrial genome (Global FST = 0.001, P < 0.05, Global ΦST = 0.045, P < 0.01, STRUCTURE K = 1) suggesting high contemporary gene flow. Hierarchical AMOVA also suggests little structuring at a regional (provincial) level. Metrics of nuclear genetic structure were not found to differ between males and females suggesting weak asymmetries in gene flow between the sexes. However, a greater degree of mitochondrial structuring does support male-biased dispersal long term. Demographic analyses were consistent with past population growth and suggest a population expansion occurred from approximately 1250 to 12,500 BP, following Pleistocene deglaciation in the region. Our study suggests high gene flow and thus a high degree of connectivity among bats that visit swarming sites whereby mainland areas of the region may be best considered as one large gene pool for management and conservation. PMID:25505539

The demographic impact of the Philippine family planning program: a tale of two Metro Manilas.

PubMed

1993-11-01

This pamphlet predicts the rates of contraceptive prevalence, total fertility, and population growth in the Philippines during 1970-2000. Contraceptive prevalence was 14.5% in 1970 and is expected to be 50% in 2000. Total fertility was 5.9 in 1970 and is expected to be 3.2 in 2000. Population was 36 million in 1970, 65 million in 1993, and is expected to be 75 million in 2000. If the family planning program had not continued to expand after 1970, population would have been 75 million in 1993 and would rise to 96.7 million in 2000. With expanded family planning, the difference in population for 2000 is 22 million people, or the equivalent of 2 metropolitan Manilas. A projected population that is smaller by 22 million is important for carrying capacity. A summary is given of the world situation proposed by Worldwatch. The projection is for increased demand for food from the 90 million people a year added to total world population. Food output during 1950-84 increased dramatically. However recent trends indicate that fish harvests from oceans have leveled off at 100 million tons a year and fish prices have risen rapidly. Fresh water shortages are now apparent in the United States, Mexico, China, India, and the Middle East. Grain production has slowed. Per capita output of rice, corn, and wheat has declined by 11% since 1984. World stocks of rice are low. Grain prices have doubled on the Chicago Board of Trade. Fertilizer use has declined 12% since 1989. Much crop production has reached maximum yields. Topsoil is disappearing, and cropland expanded only 2% in the last 10 years. Since 1945, 2 million hectares of land have been degraded by overgrazing, deforestation, and agricultural mismanagement.

Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua.

PubMed

Mieszkowska, Nova; Genner, Martin J; Hawkins, Stephen J; Sims, David W

2009-01-01

During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.

Anthropogenic biogeochemical impacts on coral reefs in the Pacific Islands—An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, R. J.; Denton, G. R. W.; Bale Tamata, U.; Grignon, J.

2013-11-01

Coral reefs dominate the coastal environment in many Pacific Islands, being present as atolls, coral platforms, barrier and fringing reefs. With ever increasing populations and migration of people to the coast, the anthropogenic impacts on these reefs have increased dramatically in the last 30 years. While research on these impacts has been limited, some important progress has been made. This paper reviews some of the completed studies, with outcomes from American Samoa, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Saipan, New Caledonia and Tonga presented. These studies indicate that the most significant impacts have been found in locations close to major urban centres or industrial and mining activities. The extent of impact varies from place to place with minimal impacts in the more isolated and less industrialised communities. Common anthropogenic impacts are contamination caused by inadequate sewage treatment, erosion from adjacent agricultural and urban expansion activities, poor waste management, eutrophication, inefficient and/or inappropriate pesticide use and hydrocarbons use, storage and management. The outcomes include contaminated sediments (trace metals, pesticides, PCBs, hydrocarbons) with some impacts on resident biota. In some instances, the edible quality of local fisheries resources has been significantly compromised.Even in locations with small populations, increasing populations and poor economic conditions have resulted in noticeable effects on the adjacent fringing reefs, including dramatic algal proliferation and declines in fish numbers resulting from increasing nutrient discharges and increased herbivore fish catches. Recovery measures including fishing bans and alternative fishing practices have been implemented to address these issues in some areas.

Endangered species: where leatherback turtles meet fisheries.

PubMed

Ferraroli, Sandra; Georges, Jean-Yves; Gaspar, Philippe; Le Maho, Yvon

2004-06-03

The dramatic worldwide decline in populations of the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) is largely due to the high mortality associated with their interaction with fisheries, so a reduction of this overlap is critical to their survival. The discovery of narrow migration corridors used by the leatherbacks in the Pacific Ocean raised the possibility of protecting the turtles by restricting fishing in these key areas. Here we use satellite tracking to show that there is no equivalent of these corridors in the North Atlantic Ocean, because the turtles disperse actively over the whole area. But we are able to identify a few 'hot spots' where leatherbacks meet fisheries and where conservation efforts should be focused.

Impact of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal/gonadal axes on trajectory of age-related cognitive decline.

PubMed

Conrad, Cheryl D; Bimonte-Nelson, Heather A

2010-01-01

Life expectancies have increased substantially in the last century, dramatically amplifying the proportion of individuals who will reach old age. As individuals age, cognitive ability declines, although the rate of decline differs amongst the forms of memory domains and for different individuals. Memory domains especially impacted by aging are declarative and spatial memories. The hippocampus facilitates the formation of declarative and spatial memories. Notably, the hippocampus is particularly vulnerable to aging. Genetic predisposition and lifetime experiences and exposures contribute to the aging process, brain changes and subsequent cognitive outcomes. In this review, two factors to which an individual is exposed, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis, will be considered regarding the impact of age on hippocampal-dependent function. Spatial memory can be affected by cumulative exposure to chronic stress via glucocorticoids, released from the HPA axis, and from gonadal steroids (estrogens, progesterone and androgens) and gonadotrophins, released from the HPG axis. Additionally, this review will discuss how these hormones impact age-related hippocampal function. We hypothesize that lifetime experiences and exposure to these hormones contribute to the cognitive makeup of the aged individual, and contribute to the heterogeneous aged population that includes individuals with cognitive abilities as astute as their younger counterparts, as well as individuals with severe cognitive decline or neurodegenerative disease. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic Diversity and Structure Analysis of Percocypris pingi (Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae): Implications for Conservation and Hatchery Release in the Yalong River

PubMed Central

Yang, Kun; Gan, Weixiong; Zeng, Rukui; Deng, Longjun; Song, Zhaobin

2016-01-01

Percocypris pingi is a near threatened cyprinid species, which has suffered a dramatic decline due to anthropogenic factors. As one response to this decline, hatchery release for P. pingi has been conducted in the lower reaches of the Yalong River since 2012. To understand the conservation status of this species and the potential impact of the release of hatchery-reared fish, we studied the genetic diversity and population structure of wild and hatchery populations of P. pingi. Two hatchery populations (Jinping [JPH] and Ya’an [YAH]) and two wild populations (Muli [MLW] and Woluo [WLW]) of P. pingi were analyzed based on microsatellite markers and the mitochondrial DNA control region. The results showed that P. pingi possesses moderate levels of genetic diversity, with observed heterozygosities ranging from 0.657 to 0.770 and nucleotide diversities ranging from 0.00212 to 0.00491. Our results also suggested WLW harbors considerable proportions of genetic diversity in this species and serves as a refuge for P. pingi during anthropogenic disturbance, thus playing an important role for the conservation of P. pingi populations. Microsatellite and mitochondrial markers both indicated close genetic relationships between YAH and MLW, JPH and WLW, respectively. The results to some extent reflected the geographical provenances for original broodstocks of the two hatchery populations, which provide some practical guidance for hatchery release of P. pingi. The existence of remarkable genetic divergence distributed along limited geographical range (approximately 10 kilometers) suggests the two wild populations should be regarded at least as two distinct evolutionary significant units (ESUs) and management units (MUs). Considering reduced intra-population genetic variation in hatchery population for release and significant genetic compositions of the two hatchery populations, some appropriate breeding strategies were proposed to benefit conservation of P. pingi. PMID:27911911

Contaminant effects on Great Lakes' fish-eating birds: a population perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinz, G.H.; Kendall, Ronald J.; Dickerson, Richard L.; Giesy, John P.; Suk, William P.

1998-01-01

Preventing environmental contaminants from reducing wildlife populations is the greatest concern in wildlife toxicology. In the Great Lakes, environmental contaminants have a history of reducing populations of many species of fish-eating birds. Endocrine effects may have contributed to declines in fish-eating bird populations, but the overriding harm was caused by DDE-induced eggshell thinning. Toxic effects may still be occurring today, but apparently they are not of a sufficient magnitude to depress populations of most fish-eating birds. Once DDE levels in the Great Lakes declined, eggshells of birds began to get thicker and reproductive success improved. Populations of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) and ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) have increased dramatically since the bans on DDT and other organochlorine pesticides. Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are still not reproducing at a normal rate along the shores of the Great Lakes, but success is much improved compared to earlier records when eggshell thinning was worse. Other species, such as herring gulls (Larus argentatus) and black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax), seem to be having improved reproductive success, but data on Great Lakes'-wide population changes are incomplete. Reproductive success of common terns (Sterna hirundo), Caspian terns (Sterna caspia), and Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) seems to have improved in recent years, but, again, data on population changes are not very complete, and these birds face many habitat related problems as well as contaminant problems. Although contaminants are still producing toxic effects, and these effects may include endocrine disfunction, fish-eating birds in the Great Lakes seem to be largely weathering these effects, at least as far as populations are concerned. A lack of obvious contaminant effects on populations of fish-eating birds in the Great Lakes, however, should not be equated with a lack of any harm to these birds or with a conclusion that certain contaminants do not need additional control.

Eliminating malaria vectors

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Malaria vectors which predominantly feed indoors upon humans have been locally eliminated from several settings with insecticide treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying or larval source management. Recent dramatic declines of An. gambiae in east Africa with imperfect ITN coverage suggest mosquito populations can rapidly collapse when forced below realistically achievable, non-zero thresholds of density and supporting resource availability. Here we explain why insecticide-based mosquito elimination strategies are feasible, desirable and can be extended to a wider variety of species by expanding the vector control arsenal to cover a broader spectrum of the resources they need to survive. The greatest advantage of eliminating mosquitoes, rather than merely controlling them, is that this precludes local selection for behavioural or physiological resistance traits. The greatest challenges are therefore to achieve high biological coverage of targeted resources rapidly enough to prevent local emergence of resistance and to then continually exclude, monitor for and respond to re-invasion from external populations. PMID:23758937

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

PubMed

Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

2013-01-01

Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori should be priorities for gastric cancer control efforts.

Understanding variation in human fertility: what can we learn from evolutionary demography?

PubMed

Sear, Rebecca; Lawson, David W; Kaplan, Hillard; Shenk, Mary K

2016-04-19

Decades of research on human fertility has presented a clear picture of how fertility varies, including its dramatic decline over the last two centuries in most parts of the world. Why fertility varies, both between and within populations, is not nearly so well understood. Fertility is a complex phenomenon, partly physiologically and partly behaviourally determined, thus an interdisciplinary approach is required to understand it. Evolutionary demographers have focused on human fertility since the 1980s. The first wave of evolutionary demographic research made major theoretical and empirical advances, investigating variation in fertility primarily in terms of fitness maximization. Research focused particularly on variation within high-fertility populations and small-scale subsistence societies and also yielded a number of hypotheses for why fitness maximization seems to break down as fertility declines during the demographic transition. A second wave of evolutionary demography research on fertility is now underway, paying much more attention to the cultural and psychological mechanisms underpinning fertility. It is also engaging with the complex, multi-causal nature of fertility variation, and with understanding fertility in complex modern and transitioning societies. Here, we summarize the history of evolutionary demographic work on human fertility, describe the current state of the field, and suggest future directions. © 2016 The Author(s).

Understanding variation in human fertility: what can we learn from evolutionary demography?

PubMed Central

Sear, Rebecca; Lawson, David W.; Kaplan, Hillard

2016-01-01

Decades of research on human fertility has presented a clear picture of how fertility varies, including its dramatic decline over the last two centuries in most parts of the world. Why fertility varies, both between and within populations, is not nearly so well understood. Fertility is a complex phenomenon, partly physiologically and partly behaviourally determined, thus an interdisciplinary approach is required to understand it. Evolutionary demographers have focused on human fertility since the 1980s. The first wave of evolutionary demographic research made major theoretical and empirical advances, investigating variation in fertility primarily in terms of fitness maximization. Research focused particularly on variation within high-fertility populations and small-scale subsistence societies and also yielded a number of hypotheses for why fitness maximization seems to break down as fertility declines during the demographic transition. A second wave of evolutionary demography research on fertility is now underway, paying much more attention to the cultural and psychological mechanisms underpinning fertility. It is also engaging with the complex, multi-causal nature of fertility variation, and with understanding fertility in complex modern and transitioning societies. Here, we summarize the history of evolutionary demographic work on human fertility, describe the current state of the field, and suggest future directions. PMID:27022071

Art & Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shmulsky, Lucinda

2009-01-01

In July 2004, The National Endowment for the Arts released the results of a survey entitled "Reading at Risk." The survey covered a 20-year period from 1982 to 2002 and documented a dramatic decline in the reading of literary works by all age groups during that period. The steepest decline of 28 percent was found among the youngest age group of…

High and variable mortality of leatherback turtles reveal possible anthropogenic impacts.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, P; Robinson, N J; Sanz-Aguilar, A; Spotila, J R; Paladino, F V; Tavecchia, G

2017-08-01

The number of nesting leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the eastern Pacific Ocean has declined dramatically since the late 1980s. This decline has been attributed to egg poaching and interactions with fisheries. However, it is not clear how much of the decline should also be ascribed to variability in the physical characteristics of the ocean. We used data on individually marked turtles that nest at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, to address whether climatic variability affects survival and inter-breeding interval. Because some turtles might nest undetected, we used capture-recapture models to model survival probability accounting for a detection failure. In addition, as the probability of reproduction is constrained by past nesting events, we formulated a new parameterization to estimate inter-breeding intervals and contrast hypotheses on the role of climatic covariates on reproductive frequency. Average annual survival for the period 1993-2011 was low (0.78) and varied over time ranging from 0.49 to 0.99 with a negative temporal trend mainly due to the high mortality values registered after 2004. Survival probability was not associated with the Multivariate ENSO Index of the South Pacific Ocean (MEI) but this index explained 24% of the temporal variability in the reproductive frequency. The probability of a turtle to permanently leave after the first encounter was 26%. This high proportion of transients might be associated with a high mortality cost of the first reproduction or with a long-distance nesting dispersal after the first nesting season. Although current data do not allow separating these two hypotheses, low encounter rate at other locations and high investment in reproduction, supports the first hypothesis. The low and variable annual survival probability has largely contributed to the decline of this leatherback population. The lack of correlation between survival probability and the most important climatic driver of oceanic processes in the Pacific discards a climate-related decline and point to anthropogenic sources of mortality as the main causes responsible for the observed population decline. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fates of dissolved and particulate materials from the Mississippi river immediately after discharge into the northern Gulf of Mexico, USA, during a period of low wind stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagg, M. J.; Bianchi, T.; McKee, B.; Powell, R.

2008-07-01

In June 2003, we conducted a two-part field exercise to examine biogeochemical characteristics of water in the lower Mississippi river during the 4 days prior to discharge and in the Mississippi river plume over 2 days after discharge. Here we describe the fates of materials immediately after their discharge through Southwest Pass of the Mississippi delta into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Changes in surface water properties immediately after discharge were much larger and more rapid than changes prior to discharge. Total suspended matter (TSM) declined, probably due to sinking, dissolved macronutrients were rapidly diminished by mixing and biological uptake, and phytoplankton populations increased dramatically, and then declined. This decline appeared to begin at salinities of approximately 10 and was nearly complete by 15. A large increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) occurred over approximately the same salinity range. Weak winds (<2 m s -1) during and preceding this cruise apparently led to the formation of an extensive but thin freshwater lens from the river. This lens spread widely without much mixing, and the bloom of phytoplankton that occurred between discharge and a salinity of 10 was probably a freshwater community seeded from the lower river. Phytoplankton bloomed for a period of about 1-2 days, then declined dramatically, apparently releasing large amounts of DOC. Macronutrients from the river were utilized by the river phytoplankton community in the extensive freshwater lens. This contrasted with the more typical situation in which river nutrients stimulate a marine phytoplankton bloom at salinities in the mid-20s. We concluded that the direct effects of dissolved and particulate bio-reactive materials discharged by the Mississippi river were spatially restricted at this time to low-salinity water, at least as surface phenomena. After being transported through the lower river essentially unaltered, these materials were biogeochemically processed within days and tens of km. More generally, the mixing rate of plume water with receiving oceanic water has profound effects on the food web structure and biogeochemical cycling in the plume.

Trends in the leading causes of injury mortality, Australia, Canada and the United States, 2000–2014

PubMed Central

Mack, Karin A.; Clapperton, Angela J.; Macpherson, Alison; Sleet, David; Newton, Donovan; Murdoch, James; Mackay, J. Morag; Berecki-Gisolf, Janneke; Wilkins, Wilkins; Marr, Angela; Ballesteros, Michael F.; McClure, Roderick

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to highlight the differences in injury rates between populations through a descriptive epidemiological study of population-level trends in injury mortality for the high-income countries of Australia, Canada and the United States. METHODS Mortality data were available for the US from 2000 to 2014, and for Canada and Australia from 2000 to 2012. Injury causes were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision external cause codes, and were grouped into major causes. Rates were direct-method age-adjusted using the US 2000 projected population as the standard age distribution. RESULTS US motor vehicle injury mortality rates declined from 2000 to 2014 but remained markedly higher than those of Australia or Canada. In all three countries, fall injury mortality rates increased from 2000 to 2014. US homicide mortality rates declined, but remained higher than those of Australia and Canada. While the US had the lowest suicide rate in 2000, it increased by 24% during 2000–2014, and by 2012 was about 14% higher than that in Australia and Canada. The poisoning mortality rate in the US increased dramatically from 2000 to 2014. CONCLUSION Results show marked differences and striking similarities in injury mortality between the countries and within countries over time. The observed trends differed by injury cause category. The substantial differences in injury rates between similarly resourced populations raises important questions about the role of societal-level factors as underlying causes of the differential distribution of injury in our communities. PMID:28621655

The changing face of the epidemiology of type A, B, and D viral hepatitis in Italy, following the implementation of vaccination.

PubMed

Romanò, Luisa; Paladini, Sara; Tagliacarne, Catia; Zappa, Alessandra; Zanetti, Alessandro Remo

2009-05-26

The morbidity and mortality rates of viral hepatitis A, B and Delta have dramatically dropped in Italy during the last decades. Thanks to the general improvements in hygiene and sanitation, hepatitis A has shifted from a high to an intermediate/low endemicity status. Vaccination against hepatitis A is recommended to people at increased risk, including travellers to endemic areas, military personnel and individuals at occupational risk. The implementation of universal anti-hepatitis B vaccination of infants and adolescents has resulted in a dramatic decline in disease burden and in the carrier rate. An additional benefit of hepatitis B vaccination is that hepatitis Delta has also substantially declined.

Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait, Canada and Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Laake, Jeffrey L.; Stirling, Ian

2013-01-01

Until recently, the sea ice habitat of polar bears was understood to be variable, but environmental variability was considered to be cyclic or random, rather than progressive. Harvested populations were believed to be at levels where density effects were considered not significant. However, because we now understand that polar bear demography can also be influenced by progressive change in the environment, and some populations have increased to greater densities than historically lower numbers, a broader suite of factors should be considered in demographic studies and management. We analyzed 35 years of capture and harvest data from the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation in Davis Strait, including data from a new study (2005–2007), to quantify its current demography. We estimated the population size in 2007 to be 2,158 ± 180 (SE), a likely increase from the 1970s. We detected variation in survival, reproductive rates, and age-structure of polar bears from geographic sub-regions. Survival and reproduction of bears in southern Davis Strait was greater than in the north and tied to a concurrent dramatic increase in breeding harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in Labrador. The most supported survival models contained geographic and temporal variables. Harp seal abundance was significantly related to polar bear survival. Our estimates of declining harvest recovery rate, and increasing total survival, suggest that the rate of harvest declined over time. Low recruitment rates, average adult survival rates, and high population density, in an environment of high prey density, but deteriorating and variable ice conditions, currently characterize the Davis Strait polar bears. Low reproductive rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice conditions.

Chlorinated hydrocarbon contamination in osprey eggs and nestlings from the Canadian Great Lakes basin, 1991-1995.

PubMed

Martin, Pamela A; De Solla, Shane R; Ewins, Peter

2003-01-01

Populations of osprey (Pandion haliaetus) in the Great Lakes basin declined dramatically during the 1950s-1970s due largely to adverse effects of persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons, ingested in their fish prey, on eggshell thickness and adult survival. Nevertheless, these contaminants were not measured in osprey tissues during the decades of decline on the Canadian Great Lakes. Between 1991 and 1995, we monitored recovering osprey populations on the Great Lakes, including Georgian Bay and the St. Marys River area on Lake Huron and the St. Lawrence Islands National Park, as well as at two inland sites within the basin. Current OC levels, even from the most contaminated lakes, were typically lower than those associated with reproductive effects. DDE levels in fresh eggs averaged 1.2-2.9 microg/g, well below the 4.2 microg/g level associated with significant eggshell thinning and shell breakage. Nevertheless, a proportion of eggs from all study areas did exceed this level. PCB levels in eggs seldom exceeded 5 microg/g except in one lake of high breeding density in the Kawartha Lakes inland study area, where the mean sum PCB level was 7.1 microg/g and the maximum concentration measured was 26.5 microg/g. On average, mean reproductive output (0.78-2.75 young per occupied nest) of breeding populations in Great Lakes basin study areas exceeded the threshold of 0.8 young thought necessary to maintain stable populations. We concluded that, although eggs and especially nestling plasma, are useful in reflecting local contaminant levels, ospreys are relatively insensitive, at least at the population level, to health effects of current levels of chlorinated hydrocarbons on the Canadian Great Lakes.

Widespread mosquito net fishing in the Barotse floodplain: Evidence from qualitative interviews.

PubMed

Larsen, David A; Welsh, Rick; Mulenga, Angela; Reid, Robert

2018-01-01

The insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) is a crucial component of malaria control programs, and has prevented many malaria cases and deaths due to scale up. ITNs also serve effectively as fishing nets and various sources have reported use of ITNs for fishing. This article examines how widespread the practice of mosquito net fishing with ITNs is. We conducted in-depth interviews with fishery personnel and traditional leadership from the Barotse Royal Establishment in Western Province, Zambia, to better understand the presence or absence of the use of ITNs as fishing nets. We then coded the interviews for themes through content analysis. Additionally we conducted a desk review of survey data to show trends in malaria indicators, nutritional status of the population and fish consumption. All those interviewed reported that ITNs are regularly used for fishing in Western Zambia and the misuse is widespread. Concurrently those interviewed reported declines in fish catches both in terms of quantity and quality leading to threatened food security in the area. In addition to unsustainable fishing practices those interviewed referenced drought and population pressure as reasons for fishery decline. Malaria indicators do not show a trend in declining malaria transmission, fish consumption has dropped dramatically and nutritional status has not improved over time. Despite the misuse of the ITNs for fishing all those interviewed maintained that ITN distribution should continue. Donors, control programs and scientists should realize that misuse of ITNs as fishing nets is a current problem for malaria control and potentially for food security that needs to be addressed.

Widespread mosquito net fishing in the Barotse floodplain: Evidence from qualitative interviews

PubMed Central

Mulenga, Angela; Reid, Robert

2018-01-01

Background The insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) is a crucial component of malaria control programs, and has prevented many malaria cases and deaths due to scale up. ITNs also serve effectively as fishing nets and various sources have reported use of ITNs for fishing. This article examines how widespread the practice of mosquito net fishing with ITNs is. Methods We conducted in-depth interviews with fishery personnel and traditional leadership from the Barotse Royal Establishment in Western Province, Zambia, to better understand the presence or absence of the use of ITNs as fishing nets. We then coded the interviews for themes through content analysis. Additionally we conducted a desk review of survey data to show trends in malaria indicators, nutritional status of the population and fish consumption. Results All those interviewed reported that ITNs are regularly used for fishing in Western Zambia and the misuse is widespread. Concurrently those interviewed reported declines in fish catches both in terms of quantity and quality leading to threatened food security in the area. In addition to unsustainable fishing practices those interviewed referenced drought and population pressure as reasons for fishery decline. Malaria indicators do not show a trend in declining malaria transmission, fish consumption has dropped dramatically and nutritional status has not improved over time. Conclusions Despite the misuse of the ITNs for fishing all those interviewed maintained that ITN distribution should continue. Donors, control programs and scientists should realize that misuse of ITNs as fishing nets is a current problem for malaria control and potentially for food security that needs to be addressed. PMID:29719003

Fish and fisheries in the Lower Rhine 1550-1950: A historical-ecological perspective.

PubMed

Lenders, H J Rob

2017-11-01

Regulation and intensive use of most of the world's large rivers, has led to dramatic decline and even to extinction of riverine fish populations like salmon and sturgeon in the river Rhine. In general this decline is considered an unwelcome side-effect of the Industrial Revolution and large-scale river regulation (c. 1800), but the deterioration of stocks of some species may have started well before the 19th century. For the river Rhine, data on fish landings as proxies of abundance in the period 1550-1950 can be derived from historical market prices, fisheries taxation and fishery and fish auctions statistics, especially for commercially interesting species like Atlantic salmon, sturgeon, Allis shad and Twaite shad. Most data from which abundance of these species can be derived, however, appear to be missing in historical sources until decline of the investigated species sets in and the species become economically scarce goods. Atlantic salmon in the Rhine catchment appears to be already in decline during Early Modern Times (post 1500 AD) after which time river regulation, pollution and intensified fisheries finished off the remaining stocks in the 20th century. Salmon decline caused a cascade in the River Rhine ecosystem as fisheries shifted to, especially, Allis shad and Twaite shad, followed by (near-)extinction of these species. Dropping yields of salmon fishery did not lead to increased sturgeon fishery, although numbers of sturgeon also dwindled to extinction in the river Rhine. The onset of sturgeon decline appears to coincide with the period of the first large regulation works. It is shown that historical-ecological data on fish abundance can quantitatively underpin detrimental long-term processes in river ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marine reserves and reproductive biomass: a case study of a heavily targeted reef fish.

PubMed

Taylor, Brett M; McIlwain, Jennifer L; Kerr, Alexander M

2012-01-01

Recruitment overfishing (the reduction of a spawning stock past a point at which the stock can no longer replenish itself) is a common problem which can lead to a rapid and irreversible fishery collapse. Averting this disaster requires maintaining a sufficient spawning population to buffer stochastic fluctuations in recruitment of heavily harvested stocks. Optimal strategies for managing spawner biomass are well developed for temperate systems, yet remain uncertain for tropical fisheries, where the danger of collapse from recruitment overfishing looms largest. In this study, we explored empirically and through modeling, the role of marine reserves in maximizing spawner biomass of a heavily exploited reef fish, Lethrinus harak around Guam, Micronesia. On average, spawner biomass was 16 times higher inside the reserves compared with adjacent fished sites. Adult density and habitat-specific mean fish size were also significantly greater. We used these data in an age-structured population model to explore the effect of several management scenarios on L. harak demography. Under minimum-size limits, unlimited extraction and all rotational-closure scenarios, the model predicts that preferential mortality of larger and older fish prompt dramatic declines in spawner biomass and the proportion of male fish, as well as considerable declines in total abundance. For rotational closures this occurred because of the mismatch between the scales of recovery and extraction. Our results highlight how alternative management scenarios fall short in comparison to marine reserves in preserving reproductively viable fish populations on coral reefs.

Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

PubMed

Sheets, H David; Mitchell, Charles E; Melchin, Michael J; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L; Hawkins, Andrew D

2016-07-26

Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

2016-07-01

Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (˜447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Genetic Variation in the Iberian Lynx along Its Path to Extinction Reconstructed with Ancient DNA

PubMed Central

Casas-Marce, Mireia; Marmesat, Elena; Soriano, Laura; Martínez-Cruz, Begoña; Lucena-Perez, Maria; Nocete, Francisco; Rodríguez-Hidalgo, Antonio; Canals, Antoni; Nadal, Jordi; Detry, Cleia; Bernáldez-Sánchez, Eloísa; Fernández-Rodríguez, Carlos; Pérez-Ripoll, Manuel; Stiller, Mathias; Hofreiter, Michael; Rodríguez, Alejandro; Revilla, Eloy; Delibes, Miguel; Godoy, José A.

2017-01-01

Abstract There is the tendency to assume that endangered species have been both genetically and demographically healthier in the past, so that any genetic erosion observed today was caused by their recent decline. The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) suffered a dramatic and continuous decline during the 20th century, and now shows extremely low genome- and species-wide genetic diversity among other signs of genomic erosion. We analyze ancient (N = 10), historical (N = 245), and contemporary (N = 172) samples with microsatellite and mitogenome data to reconstruct the species' demography and investigate patterns of genetic variation across space and time. Iberian lynx populations transitioned from low but significantly higher genetic diversity than today and shallow geographical differentiation millennia ago, through a structured metapopulation with varying levels of diversity during the last centuries, to two extremely genetically depauperate and differentiated remnant populations by 2002. The historical subpopulations show varying extents of genetic drift in relation to their recent size and time in isolation, but these do not predict whether the populations persisted or went finally extinct. In conclusion, current genetic patterns were mainly shaped by genetic drift, supporting the current admixture of the two genetic pools and calling for a comprehensive genetic management of the ongoing conservation program. This study illustrates how a retrospective analysis of demographic and genetic patterns of endangered species can shed light onto their evolutionary history and this, in turn, can inform conservation actions. PMID:28962023

Signature of a Pre-Human Population Decline in the Critically Endangered Reunion Island Endemic Forest Bird Coracina newtoni

PubMed Central

Salmona, Jordi; Salamolard, Marc; Fouillot, Damien; Ghestemme, Thomas; Larose, Jerry; Centon, Jean-François; Sousa, Vitor; Dawson, Deborah A.; Thebaud, Christophe; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-01-01

The exceptional biodiversity of Reunion Island is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 350 years of human colonization. During this period the human population size increased dramatically from 250 to 800,000. The arrival of humans together with the development of agriculture, invasive species such as rats and cats, and deforestation has lead to the extinction of more than half of the original vertebrate species of the island. For the remaining species, significant work is being carried out to identify threats and conservation status, but little genetic work has been carried on some of the most endangered species. In the last decade theoretical studies have shown the ability of neutral genetic markers to infer the demographic history of endangered species and identify and date past population size changes (expansions or bottlenecks). In this study we provide the first genetic data on the critically endangered species the Reunion cuckoo-shrike Coracina newtoni. The Reunion cuckoo-shrike is a rare endemic forest bird surviving in a restricted 12-km2 area of forested uplands and mountains. The total known population consists of less than one hundred individuals out of which 45 were genotyped using seventeen polymorphic microsatellite loci. We found a limited level of genetic variability and weak population structure, probably due to the limited geographic distribution. Using Bayesian methods, we identified a strong decline in population size during the Holocene, most likely caused by an ancient climatic or volcanic event around 5000 years ago. This result was surprising as it appeared in apparent contradiction with the accepted theory of recent population collapse due to deforestation and predator introduction. These results suggest that new methods allowing for more complex demographic models are necessary to reconstruct the demographic history of populations. PMID:22916272

Variability in Demand for Special Education Teachers: Indicators, Explanations, and Impacts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boe, Erling E.; deBettencourt, Laurie U.; Dewey, James; Rosenberg, Michael; Sindelar, Paul; Leko, Christopher

2013-01-01

After decades of growth, the number of special education teachers (SETs) has begun to decline. In 2009, U.S. schools employed 13% fewer SETs than in 2006. The number of annual new hires of SETs also dropped dramatically in some states. The onset of these declines predated the economic downturn of 2008 and resulted in part from a steady decline…

Network Prime-Time Violence Tabulations for 1975-76 Season.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klapper, Joseph T.

This is an annual report on violence in prime-time television. The tabulations, based on 13 weeks of monitoring prime-time programs on three networks, indicate a decline in violence by 24% and a decline in the rate per hour of dramatic violence to 1.9 incidents per hour since last season. The study also indicated that the introduction of the…

Exploiting trait correlations for next-generation grain yield and end-use quality improvement of U.S. hard winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since the early 1980s, the land area planted to U.S. hard winter wheat and the share of U.S. wheat in global export markets have both declined dramatically. Improved profitability of other crops relative to wheat, declining or static domestic wheat flour consumption, and an increasingly competitive ...

Oxygen stress reduces zoospore survival of Phytophthora species in a simulated aquatic system.

PubMed

Kong, Ping; Hong, Chuanxue

2014-05-13

The genus Phytophthora includes a group of agriculturally important pathogens and they are commonly regarded as water molds. They produce motile zoospores that can move via water currents and on their own locomotion in aquatic environments. However, zoosporic response to dissolved oxygen, an important water quality parameter, is not known. Like other water quality parameters, dissolved oxygen concentration in irrigation reservoirs fluctuates dramatically over time. The aim of this study was to determine whether and how zoospore survival may be affected by elevated and low concentrations of dissolved oxygen in water to better understand the aquatic biology of these pathogens in irrigation reservoirs. Zoospores of P. megasperma, P. nicotianae, P. pini and P. tropicalis were assessed for survival in 10% Hoagland's solution at a range of dissolved concentrations from 0.9 to 20.1 mg L(-1) for up to seven exposure times from 0 to 72 h. Zoospore survival was measured by resultant colony counts per ml. Zoospores of these species survived the best in control Hoagland's solution at dissolved oxygen concentrations of 5.3 to 5.6 mg L(-1). Zoospore survival rates decreased with increasing and decreasing concentration of dissolved oxygen, depending upon Phytophthora species and exposure time. Overall, P. megasperma and P. pini are less sensitive than P. nicotianae and P. tropicalis to hyperoxia and hypoxia conditions. Zoospores in the control solution declined over time and this natural decline process was enhanced under hyperoxia and hypoxia conditions. These findings suggest that dramatic fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in irrigation reservoirs contribute to the population decline of Phytophthora species along the water path in the same reservoirs. These findings advanced our understanding of the aquatic ecology of these pathogens in irrigation reservoirs. They also provided a basis for pathogen risk mitigation by prolonging the turnover time of runoff water in recycling irrigation systems via better system designs.

Oxygen stress reduces zoospore survival of Phytophthora species in a simulated aquatic system

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The genus Phytophthora includes a group of agriculturally important pathogens and they are commonly regarded as water molds. They produce motile zoospores that can move via water currents and on their own locomotion in aquatic environments. However, zoosporic response to dissolved oxygen, an important water quality parameter, is not known. Like other water quality parameters, dissolved oxygen concentration in irrigation reservoirs fluctuates dramatically over time. The aim of this study was to determine whether and how zoospore survival may be affected by elevated and low concentrations of dissolved oxygen in water to better understand the aquatic biology of these pathogens in irrigation reservoirs. Results Zoospores of P. megasperma, P. nicotianae, P. pini and P. tropicalis were assessed for survival in 10% Hoagland’s solution at a range of dissolved concentrations from 0.9 to 20.1 mg L-1 for up to seven exposure times from 0 to 72 h. Zoospore survival was measured by resultant colony counts per ml. Zoospores of these species survived the best in control Hoagland’s solution at dissolved oxygen concentrations of 5.3 to 5.6 mg L-1. Zoospore survival rates decreased with increasing and decreasing concentration of dissolved oxygen, depending upon Phytophthora species and exposure time. Overall, P. megasperma and P. pini are less sensitive than P. nicotianae and P. tropicalis to hyperoxia and hypoxia conditions. Conclusion Zoospores in the control solution declined over time and this natural decline process was enhanced under hyperoxia and hypoxia conditions. These findings suggest that dramatic fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in irrigation reservoirs contribute to the population decline of Phytophthora species along the water path in the same reservoirs. These findings advanced our understanding of the aquatic ecology of these pathogens in irrigation reservoirs. They also provided a basis for pathogen risk mitigation by prolonging the turnover time of runoff water in recycling irrigation systems via better system designs. PMID:24885900

Urine drug testing of chronic pain patients. V. Prevalence of propoxyphene following its withdrawal from the United States market.

PubMed

Puet, Brandi; DePriest, Anne; Knight, Julie; Heltsley, Rebecca; Black, David L; Caplan, Yale H; Cone, Edward J

2013-01-01

Propoxyphene is an opioid analgesic that was surrounded by controversy concerning its safety and efficacy during its lifespan in the US market. Propoxyphene was withdrawn in November of 2010 from the US market and is still being detected one year post-withdrawal in urine specimens from the pain management population. In this study, the prevalence of propoxyphene was determined in a total of 417,914 urine specimens collected from 630 clinics involved in pain management located in 24 states during the period of January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2011. Propoxyphene and norpropoxyphene were measured in urine by a validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry procedure with a lower limit of quantitation of 50 ng/mL. The positivity rate for propoxyphene prevalence declined sharply between November and December of 2010 and further declined at a gradual rate, ending in a prevalence of 0.27% (one out of every 370 specimens, n = 25,658) for the month of December 2011. The presented data provide evidence of the dramatic decline in the use of propoxyphene products since their removal from the medical market, and may be beneficial to US urine drug testing programs determining the need for continual monitoring of propoxyphene levels.

GoMRC Website ‘Meta-analysis Report: Land-use and submerged aquatic vegetation change in the Gulf of Mexico’

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judd, Chaeli; Stefansson, Emily S.; Brushnahan, Heather

2007-12-06

Over the past century, health and spatial extent of seagrasses has decreased dramatically in the Gulf of Mexico. While some of the changes can be explained by direct impacts to the seagrass beds, we hypothesize that changes in the land use in the watersheds can also be correlated with the decline of seagrasses. Through this meta-analysis, we researched historical and compared trends in seagrass populations and land use in five bays and their watersheds within the Gulf of Mexico: Mobile Bay, Perdido Bay, Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and Galveston Bay. Using both historical records and spatial datasets, we examined landmore » use and seagrass trends in these five areas.« less

Declining lymphoid progenitor fitness promotes aging-associated leukemogenesis.

PubMed

Henry, Curtis J; Marusyk, Andriy; Zaberezhnyy, Vadym; Adane, Biniam; DeGregori, James

2010-12-14

Aging is associated with the functional decline of cells, tissues, and organs. At the same time, age is the single most important prognostic factor in the development of most human cancers, including chronic myelogenous and acute lymphoblastic leukemias initiated by Bcr-Abl oncogenic translocations. Prevailing paradigms attribute the association between aging and cancers to the accumulation of oncogenic mutations over time, because the accrual of oncogenic events is thought to be the rate-limiting step in initiation and progression of cancers. Conversely, aging-associated functional decline caused by both cell-autonomous and non-cell-autonomous mechanisms is likely to reduce the fitness of stem and progenitor cell populations. This reduction in fitness should be conducive for increased selection of oncogenic mutations that can at least partially alleviate fitness defects, thereby promoting the initiation of cancers. We tested this hypothesis using mouse hematopoietic models. Our studies indicate that the dramatic decline in the fitness of aged B-lymphopoiesis coincides with altered receptor-associated kinase signaling. We further show that Bcr-Abl provides a much greater competitive advantage to old B-lymphoid progenitors compared with young progenitors, coinciding with restored kinase signaling pathways, and that this enhanced competitive advantage translates into increased promotion of Bcr-Abl-driven leukemias. Moreover, impairing IL-7-mediated signaling is sufficient to promote selection for Bcr-Abl-expressing B progenitors. These studies support an unappreciated causative link between aging and cancer: increased selection of oncogenic mutations as a result of age-dependent alterations of the fitness landscape.

Drosophila as a model to study cardiac aging

PubMed Central

Nishimura, Mayuko; Ocorr, Karen; Bodmer, Rolf; Cartry, Jérôme

2010-01-01

With age, cardiac performance declines progressively and the risk of heart disease, a primary cause of mortality, rises dramatically. As the elderly population continues to increase, it is critical to gain a better understanding of the genetic influences and modulatory factors that impact cardiac aging. In an attempt to determine the relevance and utility of the Drosophila heart in unraveling the genetic mechanisms underlying cardiac aging, a variety of heart performance assays have recently been developed to quantify Drosophila heart performance that permit the use of the fruit fly to investigate the heart’s decline with age. As for the human heart, Drosophila heart function also deteriorates with age. Notably, with progressive age the incidence of cardiac arrhythmias, myofibrillar disorganization and susceptibility to heart dysfunction and failure all increase significantly. We review here the evidence for an involvement of the insulin-TOR pathway, the KATP channel subunit dSur, the KCNQ potassium channel, as well as Dystrophin and Myosin in fly cardiac aging, and discuss the utility of the Drosophila heart model for cardiac aging studies. PMID:21130861

Recruitment of burbot (Lota lota L.) in Lake Erie: An empirical modelling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, M.A.; Witzel, L.D.; Cook, A.

2010-01-01

World-wide, many burbot Lota lota (L.) populations have been extirpated or are otherwise in need of conservation measures. By contrast, burbot made a dramatic recovery in Lake Erie during 1993-2001 but declined during 2002-2007, due in part to a sharp decrease in recruitment. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to evaluate 129 linear regression models that included all combinations of one to seven ecological indices as predictors of burbot recruitment. Two models were substantially supported by the data: (i) the number of days in which water temperatures were within optimal ranges for burbot spawning and development combined with biomass of yearling and older (YAO) yellow perch Perca flavescens (Mitchill); and (ii) biomass of YAO yellow perch. Warmer winter water temperatures and increases in yellow perch biomass were associated with decreases in burbot recruitment. Continued warm winter water temperatures could result in declines in burbot recruitment, particularly in the southern part of the species' range. Published 2010. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The crime drop in comparative perspective: the impact of the economy and imprisonment on American and European burglary rates.

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Richard; Messner, Steven F

2009-09-01

Influential statements on recent American crime reductions maintain that the crime drop was confined to the USA. Yet other research has revealed comparable crime decreases in Europe. We suggest that the USA and European crime declines occurred in tandem because they were both brought about by upturns in the economy. In light of US research showing crime reductions resulting from growth in imprisonment, we also examine the possibility that rising imprisonment rates reduced European crime rates. We test these hypotheses in a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of burglary rates in the USA and nine European nations between 1993 and 2006. The results indicate that burglary declines in the US and Europe were associated with rising consumer confidence. By contrast, imprisonment appears to be significantly related to burglary rates only after unusual policy interventions, such as Italy's 2006 clemency measure that dramatically reduced the size of its prison population. We interpret these findings as reflecting the structural similarity and economic integration of the world's developed nations and the uneven convergence in US and European punishment policies.

Migratory connectivity in the Rusty Blackbird: Isotopic evidence from feathers of historical and contemporary specimens

Treesearch

Keith A. Hobson; Russell Greenberg; Steven L. Van Wilgenburg; Claudia Mettke-Hofmann

2010-01-01

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) has declined dramatically across its range in North America since at least the 1960s, but the causes for this decline are unknown. We measured ratios of stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) in feathers collected from Rusty Blackbirds wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (n = 255 birds) and the coastal plain of South Carolina...

Early body composition, but not body mass, is associated with future accelerated decline in muscle quality

PubMed Central

Chiles Shaffer, Nancy; Gonzalez‐Freire, Marta; Shardell, Michelle D.; Zoli, Marco; Studenski, Stephanie A.; Ferrucci, Luigi

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Muscle quality (MQ) or strength‐to‐mass ratio declines with aging, but the rate of MQ change with aging is highly heterogeneous across individuals. The identification of risk factors for accelerated MQ decline may offer clues to identity the underpinning physiological mechanisms and indicate targets for prevention and treatment. Using data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, we tested whether measures of body mass and body composition are associated with differential rates of changes in MQ with aging. Methods Participants included 511 men and women, aged 50 years or older, followed for an average of 4 years (range: 1–8). MQ was operationalized as ratio between knee‐extension isokinetic strength and CT‐thigh muscle cross‐sectional area. Predictors included body mass and body composition measures: weight (kg), body mass index (BMI, kg/m2), dual‐energy x‐ray absorptiometry‐measured total body fat mass (TFM, kg) and lean mass (TLM, kg), and body fatness (TFM/weight). Covariates were baseline age, sex, race, and body height. Results Muscle quality showed a significant linear decline over the time of the follow up (average rate of decline 0.02 Nm/cm2 per year, P < .001). Independent of covariates, neither baseline body weight (P = .756) nor BMI (P = .777) was predictive of longitudinal rate of decline in MQ. Instead, higher TFM and lower TLM at baseline predicted steeper longitudinal decline in MQ (P = .036 and P < .001, respectively). In particular, participants with both high TFM and low TLM at baseline experienced the most dramatic decline compared with those with low TFM and high TLM (about 3% per year vs. 0.5% per year, respectively). Participants in the higher tertile of baseline body fatness presented a significantly faster decline of MQ than the rest of the population (P = .021). Similar results were observed when body mass, TFM, and TLM were modeled as time‐dependent predictors. Conclusions Body composition, but not weight nor BMI, is associated with future MQ decline, suggesting that preventive strategies aimed at maintaining good MQ with aging should specifically target body composition features. PMID:28198113

Migration of the population.

PubMed

Krasinets, E

1998-03-01

Two factors influence foreign migration balance of the Russian Federation. The first factor involves the migration process between Russia and former union republics. The influx of population to the Russian Federation from other republics of the former Soviet Union is considered as one of the largest in the world. The average annual migratory growth of Russia during the years 1991-94 as a result of this migration exchange has tripled as compared with 1986-90, with a total of 2.7 million Russians who migrated into Russia. However, from 1996 up to the present time, the number of persons arriving in Russia declined dramatically. Meanwhile, the second factor that determines the country's migration balance is emigration to the far abroad. The most significant trend in determining the development of internal migration in Russia is the outflow of population from northern and eastern regions. The directions of internal and external migratory flows have a large influence on the migration balance in Russia's rural areas. The reduction of migratory flows in rural areas is the direct result of processes in the economic sphere. It confirms the reconstruction of rural-urban migratory exchange.

Historical pesticide applications coincided with an altered diet of aerially foraging insectivorous chimney swifts

PubMed Central

Nocera, Joseph J.; Blais, Jules M.; Beresford, David V.; Finity, Leah K.; Grooms, Christopher; Kimpe, Lynda E.; Kyser, Kurt; Michelutti, Neal; Reudink, Matthew W.; Smol, John P.

2012-01-01

Numerous environmental pressures have precipitated long-term population reductions of many insect species. Population declines in aerially foraging insectivorous birds have also been detected, but the cause remains unknown partly because of a dearth of long-term monitoring data on avian diets. Chimney swifts (Chaetura pelagica) are a model aerial insectivore to fill such information gaps because their roosting behaviour makes them easy to sample in large numbers over long time periods. We report a 48-year-long (1944–1992) dietary record for the chimney swift, determined from a well-preserved deposit of guano and egested insect remains in Ontario (Canada). This unique archive of palaeo-environmental data reflecting past chimney swift diets revealed a steep rise in dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and metabolites, which were correlated with a decrease in Coleoptera remains and an increase in Hemiptera remains, indicating a significant change in chimney swift prey. We argue that DDT applications decimated Coleoptera populations and dramatically altered insect community structure by the 1960s, triggering nutritional consequences for swifts and other aerial insectivores. PMID:22513860

Patterns of population subdivision, gene flow and genetic variability in the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus).

PubMed

Girman, D J; Vilà, C; Geffen, E; Creel, S; Mills, M G; McNutt, J W; Ginsberg, J; Kat, P W; Mamiya, K H; Wayne, R K

2001-07-01

African wild dogs are large, highly mobile carnivores that are known to disperse over considerable distances and are rare throughout much of their geographical range. Consequently, genetic variation within and differentiation between geographically separated populations is predicted to be minimal. We determined the genetic diversity of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences and microsatellite loci in seven populations of African wild dogs. Analysis of mtDNA nucleotide diversity suggests that, historically, wild dog populations have been small relative to other large carnivores. However, population declines due to recent habitat loss have not caused a dramatic reduction in genetic diversity. We found one historical and eight recent mtDNA genotypes in 280 individuals that defined two highly divergent clades. In contrast to a previous, more limited, mtDNA analysis, sequences from these clades are not geographically restricted to eastern or southern African populations. Rather, we found a large admixture zone spanning populations from Botswana, Zimbabwe and south-eastern Tanzania. Mitochondrial and microsatellite differentiation between populations was significant and unique mtDNA genotypes and alleles characterized the populations. However, gene flow estimates (Nm) based on microsatellite data were generally greater than one migrant per generation. In contrast, gene flow estimates based on the mtDNA control region were lower than expected given differences in the mode of inheritance of mitochondrial and nuclear markers which suggests a male bias in long-distance dispersal.

Population challenges for Bangladesh in the coming decades.

PubMed

Streatfield, Peter Kim; Karar, Zunaid Ahsan

2008-09-01

Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other 'mega' country (> 100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption.

Population Challenges for Bangladesh in the Coming Decades

PubMed Central

Streatfield, Peter Kim; Karar, Zunaid Ahsan

2008-01-01

Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other ‘mega’ country (>100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption. PMID:18831223

Changes in growth and maturity of walleyes associated with stock rehabilitation in western Lake Erie, 1964-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muth, Kenneth M.; Wolfert, David R.

1986-01-01

The precipitous decline in abundance of walleyes (Stizostedion vitreum vitreum) in western Lake Erie during the 1960s caused major concerns for the future of this resource. Mercury contamination in walleyes in 1970 resulted in a moratorium on commercial fishing in United States and Canadian waters. The opportunity arose for resource agencies to develop a plan for rehabilitation of the walleye stocks, and quota management for walleyes was begun in 1976. After 8 years, the resource had recovered dramatically and the estimated standing stock in 1983 was more than three times that in 1976. In the mid-1970s, however, certain detrimental changes suggested that self-regulatory mechanisms were occurring. The growth rate declined gradually but rather consistently. Growth changes were most evident for young-of-the-year (YOY), yearlings, and 2-year-old fish, which usually constituted more than 80% of the standing stock in 1976-1983. Average lengths of YOY fish decreased by nearly 50 mm (from about 240 mm in 1961 to 190 mm in 1983). Average lengths and weights of yearling and older fish began to decline after 1975 and decreased markedly after 1980. Historically, growth of walleyes in western Lake Erie exceeded that reported for many walleye populations in other waters. Another sign of self-regulation was an increasing delay in the onset of maturity. Most (usually more than 90%) of the yearling males were sexually mature each fall before 1979, but this percentage decreased to only 32 by fall 1983. Usually 80% or more of the age-II females were mature each fall during the 1960s and early 1970s, but this percentage decreased rapidly to only 7 by fall 1983. Prey fish populations declined somewhat in the early 1980s, and their ability to sustain the high abundance of walleyes is a great concern to resource managers.

A refined chronology of prehistoric Madagascar and the demise of the megafauna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowley, Brooke E.

2010-09-01

The vertebrate community of Madagascar is one of the most unique and diverse on Earth, yet faunal diversity today is just a fraction of that present in the Pleistocene and Early Holocene. An understanding of the chronology of extinction relative to climate change and anthropogenic factors is essential to test hypotheses for extinction. Here, I combine over 200 new radiocarbon dates with published 14C dates from extinct and extant subfossil vertebrates. These new data provide evidence for the prolonged existence of both extant and extinct endemic terrestrial vertebrate species well before human arrival, with habitation of some localities extending back before the Last Glacial Maximum. I analyze the data for patterns among body sizes and ecoregions in relation to four major historical events: human arrival (ca 2500 years ago), establishment of human settlements (ca 1500 years ago), Late Holocene aridification (peaking ca 1000 years ago), and European arrival (ca 500 years ago). Patterns in endemic species abundance after human arrival differ depending on body size and geographic location. Within the first 500 years after human arrival, there were population declines in (1) very large species (>150 kg) and large species (10-150 kg) in the Dry Deciduous Forest, (2) large species in the Central Highlands, and (3) very large species in the Spiny Thicket. This first pulse of declines was likely triggered by human predation. Large species continued to be well represented in the Spiny Thicket and Succulent Woodland until ca 1000 years ago, when their populations plummeted. This second pulse of declines may have been solely triggered by continued human predation, or it may have resulted from a combination of increasing Late Holocene aridity and human impacts in the form of hunting and habitat modification. The abundance of endemic animals weighing <10 kg increased dramatically in the aftermath of the decline in large-bodied species.

Continuing fertility transitions in a plural society: ethnic trends and differentials in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Lim, L L; Jones, G W; Hirschman, C

1987-10-01

Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia has declined continuously from the late 1950s, reaching a total fertility rate of 3735 in 1983. All ethnic groups in Malaysia have contributed to this modern demographic transition but the rate of change has been most rapid for Chinese and Indians, Malay fertility having reached a plateau in the early 1980s. The effect of age structure, marital patterns and marital fertility (by parity) on the fertility declines for each ethnic community are analyzed. There has been a tendency, in each ethnic group, for the age distribution within the group of reproductive-age women to grow younger, reflecting the entry into the younger reproductive ages of the large birth cohorts of the 1950s and early 1960s. The effect of this on crude birth rates is hard to determine, because rising age at marriage and increasing use of contraception meant that fertility was increasingly concentrated in the more central reproductive ages. By the 1990s, the earlier declines in fertility will bring about a decline in the proportion of the total population made up of females in the main reproductive ages. After that point, further declines in fertility will be reflected in a sharper decline in the crude birth rate and hence the rate of population increase. Between 1947 and 1980, the age at marriage changed dramatically for females of all ethnic groups. The transition to higher age at marriage for Chinese was completed earlier, and since 1970 has risen by only a year. For Malays and Indians, the rise began later, proceeded faster and continued right up to 1980 when the medium ages at 1st marriage were Malays 22, Indians 23, Chinese 24 years. In 1980, Malay women on average were marrying 5 years later, and Indian women 6 years later than had their mothers' generation in 1947. The proportion never-married among Malay and Indian women aged 20-24 rose from 1/10 to 1/2 over this period; relatively greater changes are evident at ages 25-29. Other factors are the almost complete shift from parent-arranged to self-arranged marriages. Family size desired has decreased for all groups and the decline in breastfeeding has been offset by the sharp increase in the practice of contraception. Continuation of these trends would lead to replacement-level fertility for Malaysian Chinese and Indians by the year 2000. Malay fertility is likely to continue to decline but at a more moderate pace.

Replenishment of fish populations is threatened by ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Munday, Philip L.; Dixson, Danielle L.; McCormick, Mark I.; Meekan, Mark; Ferrari, Maud C. O.; Chivers, Douglas P.

2010-01-01

There is increasing concern that ocean acidification, caused by the uptake of additional CO2 at the ocean surface, could affect the functioning of marine ecosystems; however, the mechanisms by which population declines will occur have not been identified, especially for noncalcifying species such as fishes. Here, we use a combination of laboratory and field-based experiments to show that levels of dissolved CO2 predicted to occur in the ocean this century alter the behavior of larval fish and dramatically decrease their survival during recruitment to adult populations. Altered behavior of larvae was detected at 700 ppm CO2, with many individuals becoming attracted to the smell of predators. At 850 ppm CO2, the ability to sense predators was completely impaired. Larvae exposed to elevated CO2 were more active and exhibited riskier behavior in natural coral-reef habitat. As a result, they had 5–9 times higher mortality from predation than current-day controls, with mortality increasing with CO2 concentration. Our results show that additional CO2 absorbed into the ocean will reduce recruitment success and have far-reaching consequences for the sustainability of fish populations. PMID:20615968

Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change

PubMed Central

Ozgul, Arpat; Childs, Dylan Z.; Oli, Madan K.; Armitage, Kenneth B.; Blumstein, Daniel T.; Olson, Lucretia E.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

2017-01-01

Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species1,2. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown due to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework3. Here, we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a novel methodology and an exceptional long-term (1976–2008) dataset from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a longer growing season and larger body masses prior to hibernation. The resulting shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of environmental change had comparable contributions to the observed dramatic increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments4,5. PMID:20651690

Population status and habitat associations of the King Rail in the midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bolenbaugh, Jason R.; Cooper, Tom; Brady, Ryan S.; Willard, Karen L.; Krementz, David G.

2012-01-01

The migratory population of the King Rail (Rallus elegans) has declined dramatically during the past 50 years, emphasizing the need to document the distribution and status of this species to help guide conservation efforts. In an effort to guide King Rail breeding habitat protection and restoration, a landscape suitability index (LSI) model was developed for the Upper Mississippi River and Great Lakes Region Joint Venture (JV). To validate this model, 264 sites were surveyed across the JV region in 2008 and 2009 using the National Marshbird Monitoring protocol. Two other similarly collected data sets from Wisconsin (250 sites) and Ohio (259 sites) as well as data from the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology's eBird database were added to our data set. Sampling effort was not uniform across the study area. King Rails were detected at 29 sites with the greatest concentration in southeastern Wisconsin and northeastern Illinois. Too few detections were made to validate the LSI model. King Rail detection sites tended to have microtopographic heterogeneity, more emergent herbaceous wetland vegetation and less woody vegetation. The migrant population of the King Rail is rare and warrants additional conservation efforts to achieve stated conservation population targets.

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Hemlock declines rapidly with hemlock woolly adelgid infestation: impacts on the carbon cycle of the Southern Appalachian forests

Treesearch

April E. Nuckolls; Nina Wurzburger; Chelcy R. Ford; Ronald L. Hendrick; James M. Vose; Brian D. Kloeppel

2008-01-01

The recent infestation of southern Appalachian eastern hemlock stands by hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) is expected to have dramatic and lasting effects on forest structure and function. We studied the short-term changes to the carbon cycle in a mixed stand of hemlock and hardwoods, where hemlock was declining due to either girdling or HWA infestation. We expected that...

Decline in the U.S. furniture industry: a case study of the impacts to the hardwood lumber supply chain

Treesearch

Shawn T. Grushecky; Urs Buehlmann; Al Schuler; William Luppold; Ed Cesa

2006-01-01

Traditionally, the wood household furniture industry has accounted for a sizeable portion of total hardwood lumber use in the United States. However, for more than a decade, imports have gained an increasing share of the hardwood furniture market, and lumber consumption by this industry has declined dramatically in the last 5 years. We used a case study methodology to...

Determining the pattern of cementum annuli and relationship to reproduction in male sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Proper, Josh; von Biela, Vanessa R.; Burns, Jennifer M.

2007-01-01

Since the early 1990s, the southwestern Alaskan sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population has declined dramatically and the cause has yet to be determined. Population trajectories of large mammals are determined by three factors: survival rate, reproduction rate, and age of first reproduction (AFR). Of these three, AFR should respond first to environmental change. Life history theory predicts that AFR will be older with bottom-up causes (ie, food limitation) and younger when the cause of the decline is top-down (ie, predation), as there is usually abundant resources in this scenario. Traditionally, determining AFR required lethal sampling, which may not always be possible. Work on many mammalian species suggests that the width of annual cementum layers in teeth may decline when breeding begins. If so, examining teeth annuli may provide a nonlethal alternative for determining AFR. Ongoing research has shown this relationship in female sea otters, but male sea otters have not been tested. Sea otter testes and premolar teeth slides were collected by subsistence hunters working with the US Fish and Wildlife Service and the Alaska Sea Otter and Steller Sea Lion Commission from Alaska (1994– 2005). We determined the pattern in cementum annuli thickness for male sea otters across age by measuring annuli at three sites on each of the two slide sections available. We found that cementum annuli layers decreased with age, but found no correlation between cementum annuli and sexual maturity in male sea otters. This lack of correlation may be due to sampling error or different energy expenditures during reproduction for each sex. Since females expend large amounts of energy through gestation and lactation, we hypothesize that the width of female cementum annuli decreases at a much sharper rate when they reach AFR.The southwest Alaskan sea otter population has plummeted up to 90% since the early 1990s and the reason is unknown.1 Declines may be due to a bottom-up source caused by lack of food and habitat that occurs when populations are dense, in which case we would expect reproduction rates to decrease and age of first reproduction (AFR) to increase. However, circumstantial evidence suggests that the decline may be due to a top-down source, ie, predation.2 In this case, we would expect reproduction rates to increase and AFR to decrease due to lowered densities that coincide with top-down declines.3 An ongoing study of female sea otters has shown that past reproduction can be determined by analysis of cementum annuli in the teeth, and used to calculate AFR.4 Cementum annuli are annual deposits of minerals that occur on the root of a tooth that correspond to the growth of the animal (Figure 1). During summer and spring, growth is fast which accounts for the white area, but during winter, growth slows down and the cementum is compressed which accounts for a darkened line. In females, the relationship between cementum width declines and reproduction likely reflects the large expenditure of energy that is required during gestation and lactation. However, male and female mammals expend energy for reproduction in very distinct ways,3 and the same pattern of cementum decline may not be present in males. Since shifts in the life history strategy of males are poorly understood, we are interested in testing the relationship between cementum declines and reproduction in male sea otters using cementum analysis.

Prevalence of soil transmitted nematodes on Nukufetau, a remote Pacific island in Tuvalu

PubMed Central

Speare, Rick; Latasi, Falatea Fab; Nelesone, Tekaai; Harmen, Sonia; Melrose, Wayne; Durrheim, David; Heukelbach, Jorg

2006-01-01

Background The population of Nukufetau, a remote coral atoll island in Tuvalu in the Western Pacific, received annual mass drug administration (MDA) of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole under the Pacific Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis program in 2001, 2002 and 2003, with the last MDA occurring six months before a cross-sectional survey of the whole population for soil transmitted helminths (STH). Methods A cross-sectional survey in May 2004 recruited 206 residents (35.2% of the population) who provided a single faecal sample that was preserved, concentrated and examined microscopically. Results Overall prevalence of STH was 69.9%; only hookworm and Trichuris trichiura were diagnosed. Trichuris was present in 68.4% with intensity of infection being light in 56.3%, medium in 11.7% and heavy in 0.5%. Hookworm occurred in 11.7% with intensity of infection 11.2% being light and medium in 0.5%. Twenty individuals (9.7%) had dual infections. The prevalence of Trichuris was constant across all ages while the prevalence of hookworm was significantly lower in residents below 30 years of age. In the age group 5–12 years comparison of results with a 2001 survey [1] suggested that the prevalence of STH has declined minimally, due to sustained high prevalence of Trichuris, while hookworm has declined dramatically from 34.4% to 1.6%. Conclusion The results of this survey suggest that although the MDA appears to have reduced hookworm prevalence in residents below 30 years of age, there has been minimal effect on Trichuris prevalence. An integrated program to control STH is required. PMID:16836746

Science-Driven Management of Protected Areas: A Philippine Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallari, Neil Aldrin D.; Collar, Nigel J.; McGowan, Philip J. K.; Marsden, Stuart J.

2013-06-01

The lack of scientific baseline information hinders appropriate design and management of protected areas. To illustrate the value of science to management, we consider five scenarios for the 202.0 km² Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park, Philippines: (1) closure to human activities, (2) and (3) two levels of increase in unplanned human activities, (4) creation of a forest corridor and (5) additional allocation of land for permanent or shifting agriculture. We then use habitat-specific bird density estimates to simulate the net effect of each scenario on 18 focal bird populations. Closure has significant benefits—populations of five species are predicted to increase by >50 % and nine by >25 %, but two secondary forest flycatchers, including the endemic and `Vulnerable' Palawan flycatcher, decline dramatically, while the creation of a 4.0 km² forest corridor yields average increases across species of 2 ± 4 % (SD). In contrast, heavier unplanned park usage produces declines in all but a few species, while the negative effects of an extra 2.0 km² of shifting cultivation are 3-5 times higher than for a similar area of permanent agriculture and affect species whose densities are highest in primary habitats. Relatively small changes within the park, especially those associated with agricultural expansion, has serious predicted implications for local bird populations. Our models do not take into account the full complexities of bird ecology at a site, but they do provide park managers with an evidence base from which to make better decisions relating to biodiversity conservation obligations which their parks are intended to meet.

Taking to bed. Rapid functional decline in an independently mobile older population living in an intermediate-care facility.

PubMed

Clark, L P; Dion, D M; Barker, W H

1990-09-01

The objective of this study was to determine the incidence and selected clinical outcomes of taking to bed among a population of independently ambulating older individuals. It was designed as a retrospective case series and was conducted in the intermediate-care facility of a not-for-profit, teaching nursing home. Our study group was composed of individuals over 65 years of age who became bed bound. Thirty-six taking-to-bed episodes occurred in 36 individuals during one calendar year, giving an incidence of 13 per 1,000 resident-months (95% CI, 4 to 23 per 1,000). Twelve of the 36 died within 3 months, and 17 within 6 months, but almost all who survived regained ambulation. Survival was significantly shorter for the five without localizing symptoms (P less than .05). Orthopedic, neurologic, psychiatric, and iatrogenic conditions were most commonly identified as concurrent medical events. Almost half who took to bed had multiple concurrent medical events, and these residents were more likely to present without localizing symptoms (P less than .05). Twenty-one (58%) of the episodes occurred after a fall. The incidence of taking to bed in this population indicates that clinicians caring for older persons should be alert to its occurrence. The dramatic decline in mobility deserves careful assessment because it initiated a period of relatively rapid change in the health careers of the individuals we studied: almost half died within 6 months, but nearly all who survived regained ambulation. Those without localizing symptoms may have more complex interacting medical problems and a worse prognosis.

Climate impacts on transocean dispersal and habitat in gray whales from the Pleistocene to 2100.

PubMed

Alter, S Elizabeth; Meyer, Matthias; Post, Klaas; Czechowski, Paul; Gravlund, Peter; Gaines, Cork; Rosenbaum, Howard C; Kaschner, Kristin; Turvey, Samuel T; van der Plicht, Johannes; Shapiro, Beth; Hofreiter, Michael

2015-04-01

Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Science-driven management of protected areas: a Philippine case study.

PubMed

Mallari, Neil Aldrin D; Collar, Nigel J; McGowan, Philip J K; Marsden, Stuart J

2013-06-01

The lack of scientific baseline information hinders appropriate design and management of protected areas. To illustrate the value of science to management, we consider five scenarios for the 202.0 km² Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park, Philippines: (1) closure to human activities, (2) and (3) two levels of increase in unplanned human activities, (4) creation of a forest corridor and (5) additional allocation of land for permanent or shifting agriculture. We then use habitat-specific bird density estimates to simulate the net effect of each scenario on 18 focal bird populations. Closure has significant benefits-populations of five species are predicted to increase by >50 % and nine by >25 %, but two secondary forest flycatchers, including the endemic and 'Vulnerable' Palawan flycatcher, decline dramatically, while the creation of a 4.0 km² forest corridor yields average increases across species of 2 ± 4 % (SD). In contrast, heavier unplanned park usage produces declines in all but a few species, while the negative effects of an extra 2.0 km² of shifting cultivation are 3-5 times higher than for a similar area of permanent agriculture and affect species whose densities are highest in primary habitats. Relatively small changes within the park, especially those associated with agricultural expansion, has serious predicted implications for local bird populations. Our models do not take into account the full complexities of bird ecology at a site, but they do provide park managers with an evidence base from which to make better decisions relating to biodiversity conservation obligations which their parks are intended to meet.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Genetic Variation in the Iberian Lynx along Its Path to Extinction Reconstructed with Ancient DNA.

PubMed

Casas-Marce, Mireia; Marmesat, Elena; Soriano, Laura; Martínez-Cruz, Begoña; Lucena-Perez, Maria; Nocete, Francisco; Rodríguez-Hidalgo, Antonio; Canals, Antoni; Nadal, Jordi; Detry, Cleia; Bernáldez-Sánchez, Eloísa; Fernández-Rodríguez, Carlos; Pérez-Ripoll, Manuel; Stiller, Mathias; Hofreiter, Michael; Rodríguez, Alejandro; Revilla, Eloy; Delibes, Miguel; Godoy, José A

2017-11-01

There is the tendency to assume that endangered species have been both genetically and demographically healthier in the past, so that any genetic erosion observed today was caused by their recent decline. The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) suffered a dramatic and continuous decline during the 20th century, and now shows extremely low genome- and species-wide genetic diversity among other signs of genomic erosion. We analyze ancient (N = 10), historical (N = 245), and contemporary (N = 172) samples with microsatellite and mitogenome data to reconstruct the species' demography and investigate patterns of genetic variation across space and time. Iberian lynx populations transitioned from low but significantly higher genetic diversity than today and shallow geographical differentiation millennia ago, through a structured metapopulation with varying levels of diversity during the last centuries, to two extremely genetically depauperate and differentiated remnant populations by 2002. The historical subpopulations show varying extents of genetic drift in relation to their recent size and time in isolation, but these do not predict whether the populations persisted or went finally extinct. In conclusion, current genetic patterns were mainly shaped by genetic drift, supporting the current admixture of the two genetic pools and calling for a comprehensive genetic management of the ongoing conservation program. This study illustrates how a retrospective analysis of demographic and genetic patterns of endangered species can shed light onto their evolutionary history and this, in turn, can inform conservation actions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Taxonomic and geographic patterns of decline for threatened and endangered species in the United States.

PubMed

Leidner, Allison K; Neel, Maile C

2011-08-01

Species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (i.e., listed species) have declined to the point that the probability of their extinction is high. The decline of these species, however, may manifest itself in different ways, including reductions in geographic range, number of populations, or overall abundance. Understanding the pattern of decline can help managers assess extinction probability and define recovery objectives. Although quantitative data on changes in geographic range, number of populations, and abundance usually do not exist for listed species, more often qualitative data can be obtained. We used qualitative data in recovery plans for federally listed species to determine whether each listed species declined in range size, number of populations, or abundance relative to historical levels. We calculated the proportion of listed species in each state (or equivalent) that declined in each of those ways. Nearly all listed species declined in abundance, and range size or number of populations declined in approximately 80% of species for which those data were available. Patterns of decline, however, differed taxonomically and geographically. Declines in range were more common among vertebrates than plants, whereas population extirpations were more common among plants. Invertebrates had high incidence of range and population declines. Narrowly distributed plants and invertebrates may be subject to acute threats that may result in population extirpations, whereas vertebrates may be affected by chronic threats that reduce the extent and size of populations. Additionally, in the eastern United States and U.S. coastal areas, where the level of land conversion is high, a greater percentage of species' ranges declined and more populations were extirpated than in other areas. Species in the Southwest, especially plants, had fewer range and population declines than other areas. Such relations may help in the selection of species' recovery criteria. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

User-payment, decentralization and health service utilization in Zambia.

PubMed

Blas, E; Limbambala, M

2001-12-01

The study was undertaken to assess the impact of health sector reform from 1993 to 1997 in Zambia in respect of health care service utilization and the shift of caseload from hospitals to health centres. Four key indicators were chosen: general attendance, measles vaccinations, general admissions, and deliveries. Complete sets of district data were analyzed, covering 4.5 million people out of the total population in 1997 of 9.7 million. The results show, on the one hand, a dramatic decrease of about one-third in general attendance for both hospitals and health centres over a 2-year period, followed by a period with a continued but slower decrease. On the other hand, the results also show increases at health centres in measles vaccinations (up 40%), in admissions (up 25%) and in deliveries (up 60%). The study further documents a shift of caseload from hospitals to health centres for some key services. The health centre share increased from 72.2% to 79.8% for measles vaccinations, from 23.9% to 31.0% for general admissions, and from 22.9% to 32.4% for deliveries. However, the intended overall shift in outpatient caseload from hospitals to health centres did not materialize. The main lessons are: utilization patterns can be influenced by policies such as user-payment and decentralization; user payment in poor populations leads to dramatic declines in utilization of services; and decentralization with local control of resources could be an alternative to the traditional vertical disease programme approach for priority interventions.

Long and spatially variable Neolithic Demographic Transition in the North American Southwest

PubMed Central

Kohler, Timothy A.; Reese, Kelsey M.

2014-01-01

In many places of the world, a Neolithic Demographic Transition (NDT) is visible as a several-hundred-year period of increased birth rates coupled with stable mortality rates, resulting in dramatic population growth that is eventually curtailed by increased mortality. Similar processes can be reconstructed in particular detail for the North American Southwest, revealing an anomalously long and spatially variable NDT. Irrigation-dependent societies experienced relatively low birth rates but were quick to achieve a high degree of sociopolitical complexity, whereas societies dependent on dry or rainfed farming experienced higher birth rates but less initial sociopolitical complexity. Low birth rates after A.D. 1200 mark the beginning of the decline of the Hohokam. Overall in the Southwest, birth rates increased slowly from 1100 B.C. to A.D. 500, and remained at high levels with some fluctuation until decreasing rapidly beginning A.D. 1300. Life expectancy at 15 increased slowly from 900 B.C. to A.D. 700, and then increased rapidly for 200 y before fluctuating and then declining after A.D. 1400. Life expectancy at birth, on the other hand, generally declined from 1100 B.C. to A.D. 1100/1200, before rebounding. Farmers took two millennia (∼1100 B.C. to ∼A.D. 1000) to reach the carrying capacity of the agricultural niche in the Southwest. PMID:24982134

Behind the energetics of the asiatic clam, Potamocorbula amurensis, in San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Janet K.; Parchaso, Francis

2001-01-01

The Asian clam (Potamocorbula amurensis) has played a key role in the food web of northern San Francisco Bay since its invasion in the fall of 1986. It has been associated with a dramatic decline in primary production, loss of a zooplankton species and a native mysid shrimp, the probable decline in striped bass, and has introduced alternative pathways for contaminant cycling in the bay food web.

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

2001-01-01

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

Paradoxical drop in circulating neutrophil count following granulocyte-colony stimulating factor and stem cell factor administration in rhesus macaques.

PubMed

Gordon, Brent C; Revenis, Amy M; Bonifacino, Aylin C; Sander, William E; Metzger, Mark E; Krouse, Allen E; Usherson, Tatiana N; Donahue, Robert E

2007-06-01

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) is frequently used therapeutically to treat chronic or transient neutropenia and to mobilize hematopoietic stem cells. Shortly following G-CSF administration, we observed a dramatic transient drop in circulating neutrophil number. This article characterizes this effect in a rhesus macaque animal model. Hematologic changes were monitored following subcutaneous (SQ) administration of G-CSF. G-CSF was administered as a single SQ dose at 10 microg/kg or 50 microg/kg. It was also administered (10 microg/kg) in combination with stem cell factor (SCF; 200 microg/kg) over 5 days. Flow cytometry was performed on serial blood samples to detect changes in cell surface adhesion protein expression. Neutrophil count dramatically declined 30 minutes after G-CSF administration. This decline was observed whether 10 microg/kg G-CSF was administered in combination with SCF over 5 days, or given as a single 10 microg/kg dose. At a single 50 microg/kg dose, the decline accelerated to 15 minutes. Neutrophil count returned to baseline after 120 minutes and rapidly increased thereafter. An increase in CD11a and CD49d expression coincided with the drop in neutrophil count. A transient paradoxical decline in neutrophil count was observed following administration of G-CSF either alone or in combination with SCF. This decline accelerated with the administration of a higher dose of G-CSF and was associated with an increase in CD11a and CD49d expression. It remains to be determined whether this decline in circulating neutrophils is associated with an increase in endothelial margination and/or entrance into extravascular compartments.

Why have southern pine beetle outbreaks declined in the southeastern U.S. with the expansion of intensive pine silviculture? A brief review of hypotheses

Treesearch

Christopher Asaro; John T. Nowak; Anthony Elledge

2017-01-01

The southern pine beetle has shown a dramatic decline in outbreak activity over much of the southeastern States since the turn of the 21st century compared to previous decades. Concurrently, from the 1950s through the present day, a twenty-fold increase in pine plantation area has occurred across the region while trends in genetic tree improvement and pine...

Neotropical Amphibian Declines Affect Stream Ecosystem Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connelly, S.; Pringle, C. M.; Bixby, R. J.; Whiles, M. R.; Lips, K. R.; Brenes, R.; Colon-Gaud, J. C.; Kilham, S.; Hunte-Brown, M.

2005-05-01

Global declines of amphibians are well documented, yet effects of these dramatic losses on ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood. As part of a larger collaborative project, we compared two upland Panamanian streams. Both streams are biologically and geologically similar; however, one stream (Fortuna) has recently experienced almost complete extirpation of stream-dwelling frogs, while the other (Cope) still has intact populations. We experimentally excluded tadpoles from localized areas in each stream. We then compared chlorophyll a, algal community composition, ash-free dry mass (AFDM), inorganic matter, and insect assemblages in control and exclusion areas. Additionally, we sampled the natural substrate of both streams monthly for chlorophyll a, algal community composition, AFDM, and inorganic matter. At Cope, chlorophyll a, AFDM, and inorganic matter were greater in areas where tadpoles were excluded than in their presence. Numbers of dominant algal species (e.g., Nupela praecipua and Eunotia siolii) were greater in the exclusion versus control treatments. Monthly sampling of natural substrate indicated higher chlorophyll a and AFDM at Cope compared to Fortuna. Our data suggest that stream-dwelling anuran larvae have significant impacts on algal communities. These results also have implications for predicting the relevance of short-term experimental manipulations to long-term, whole-stream processes.

Lake Ontario: Food web dynamics in a changing ecosystem (1970-2000)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, E.L.; Casselman, J.M.; Dermott, R.; Fitzsimons, J.D.; Gal, G.; Holeck, K. T.; Hoyle, J.A.; Johannsson, O.E.; Lantry, B.F.; Makarewicz, J.C.; Millard, E.S.; Munawar, I.F.; Munawar, M.; O'Gorman, R.; Owens, R.W.; Rudstam, L. G.; Schaner, T.; Stewart, T.J.

2003-01-01

We examined stressors that have led to profound ecological changes in the Lake Ontario ecosystem and its fish community since 1970. The most notable changes have been reductions in phosphorus loading, invasion by Dreissena spp., fisheries management through stocking of exotic salmonids and control of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), and fish harvest by anglers and double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus). The response to these stressors has led to (i) declines in both algal photosynthesis and epilimnetic zooplankton production, (ii) decreases in alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) abundance, (iii) declines in native Diporeia and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), (iv) behavioral shifts in alewife spatial distribution benefitting native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) populations, (v) dramatic increases in water clarity, (vi) predation impacts by cormorants on select fish species, and (vii) lake trout recruitment bottlenecks associated with alewife-induced thiamine deficiency. We expect stressor responses associated with anthropogenic forces like exotic species invasions and global climate warming to continue to impact the Lake Ontario ecosystem in the future and recommend continuous long-term ecological studies to enhance scientific understanding and management of this important resource.

The role of multiple stressor causes in declining amphibian populations: a wingspread workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krest, S.K.; Linder, G.; Sparling, D.W.; Linder, Gregory L.; Krest, Sherry K.; Sparling, Donald W.; Little, Edward E.

2003-01-01

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibian populations over the past decade and no single factor has been the linked to these widespread declines. Determining the causes of declining amphibian populations worldwide has proven difficult because of the variety of anthropogenic and natural suspect agents. A Wingspread workshop, convened by The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), brought together individuals with expertise in the areas of amphibian biology, ecotoxicology, natural resource management, and environmental policy. This workshop had three objectives: 1) create a network for future discussions on multiple stressor causes of declines; 2) characterize and prioritize technical issues critical to the analysis of the decline problem; and 3) identify and develop resource management approaches to promote sustainable and healthy amphibian populations. The workshop proceedings will be summarized in a book entitled, 'Multiple Stressors and Declining Amphibian Populations: Evaluating Cause and Effect.' This paper summarizes the results of the workshop.

The role of multiple stressor causes in declining amphibian populations: A wingspread workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krest, S.K.; Linder, G.; Sparling, D.W.; ,

2003-01-01

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibian populations over the past decade and no single factor has been the linked to these widespread declines. Determining the causes of declining amphibian populations worldwide has proven difficult because of the variety of anthropogenic and natural suspect agents. A Wingspread workshop, convened by The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), brought together individuals with expertise in the areas of amphibian biology, ecotoxicology, natural resource management, and environmental policy. This workshop had three objectives: 1) create a network for future discussions on multiple Stressor causes of declines; 2) characterize and prioritize technical issues critical to the analysis of the decline problem; and 3) identify and develop resource management approaches to promote sustainable and healthy amphibian populations. The workshop proceedings will be summarized in a book entitled, "Multiple Stressors and Declining Amphibian Populations: Evaluating Cause and Effect." This paper summarizes the results of the workshop.

Toxicity of a formulation of the insecticide indoxacarb to the tarnished plant bug, Lygus lineolaris (Hemiptera: Miridae), and the big-eyed bug, Geocoris punctipes (Hemiptera: Lygaeidae).

PubMed

Tillman, P Glynn; Hammes, Glenn G; Sacher, Matthew; Connair, Michael; Brady, E Angela; Wing, Keith D

2002-01-01

Indoxacarb is a new oxadiazine insecticide that has shown outstanding field insecticidal activity. The toxicity of a 145 g litre-1 indoxacarb SC formulation (Steward) was studied on the tarnished plant bug Lygus lineolaris and the big-eyed bug Geocoris punctipes. Both insect species responded very similarly to indoxacarb in topical, tarsal contact and plant feeding toxicity studies. The topical LD50 of the formulation was c 35 ng AI per insect for both species. Prolonged tarsal contact with dry indoxacarb residues did not result in mortality for either insect species. However, both species were susceptible to feeding through dried residues of indoxacarb after spraying on young cotton plants. Feeding on water-washed plants resulted in lower mortality than that observed with unwashed plants, and toxicity declined even more dramatically after a, detergent rinse, indicating that much of the indoxacarb probably resides on the cotton leaf surface or in the waxy cuticle. These results were corroborated by HPLC-mass spectrometry measurements of indoxacarb residues on the plants. Greater mortality for both species was observed in a higher relative humidity environment. Higher levels of accumulated indoxacarb and its active metabolite were detected in dead G punctipes than in L lineolaris after feeding on sprayed, unwashed plants. When female G punctipes ate indoxacarb-treated Heliothis zea eggs, there was significant toxicity. However, only c 15% of the females consumed indoxacarb-treated eggs, and the rest of the females showed a significant diminution of feeding in response to the insecticide. Cotton field studies have shown that indoxacarb treatments at labelled rates lead to a dramatic decline in L lineolaris, with negligible declines in beneficial populations. A major route of intoxication of L lineolaris in indoxacarb-treated cotton fields thus appears to be via oral, and not cuticular, uptake of residues from treated cotton plants. The mechanisms for selectivity/safety for G punctipes are currently under investigation and may be a combination of differential feeding behavior and diminution of feeding by females exposed to indoxacarb-treated eggs.

Predicting wolf (Canis lupus)-cattle (Bos Taurus) encounters and consequential effects on cattle resource selection patterns

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The gray wolf population in Idaho has grown dramatically from the original 35 reintroduced individuals in 1995-1996 to 94 documented packs and a minimum population of 835 individuals in 2009. Wolf depredation on livestock has also increased dramatically with this population growth. Substantial spa...

An occupancy-based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Budy, Phaedra; Conner, Mary M; Salant, Nira L; Macfarlane, William W

2015-08-01

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so-called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889-2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post-development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34-61) and 15% (95% CI 6-33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001-2011), top performing (based on AICc ) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Breeding Bird Survey: Its first fifteen years, 1965-1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.; Bystrak, D.; Geissler, P.H.

1986-01-01

The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is an ongoing cooperative program sponsored jointly by the U.S. Fish and Wildife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service. Its main purpose is to estimate population trends of the many species of birds that nest in North America north of Mexico and that migrate across international boundaries. This survey provides information, both locally by ecological or political regions and on a continental scale, on (1) short-term population changes that can be correlated with specific weather incidents, (2) recovery periods following catastrophic declines, (3) normal year-to-year variations, (4) long-term population trends, and (5) invasions of exotics. The BBS also permits detailed computer mapping of relative abundance of each species, either year by year to show changes in distribution and relative abundance, or the average over a period of years. It provides base-line data with which more intensive local studies can be compared. For biogeographic studies it provides uniform sampling of bird populations by major physiographic regions across the continent. In conjunction with the Audubon Christmas Bird Count, it permits comparison of summer and winter distribution of species that winter in the United States. Most species of North American birds migrate across international boundaries, especially those shared with Canada, Mexico, and the Soviet Union. As part of our responsibility under treaties with these nations, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has developed the BBS to monitor avian population changes so that any adverse trends can be detected early. This provides the opportunity to determine the reasons for any increase or decrease, to define geographic areas in which changes are greatest, to study correlations between avian population changes and land-use changes, and to make recommendations for controlling undesirable bird population trends. For example, the BBS can be used to detect and estimate the extent of losses resulting from widespread use of pesticides, and to reveal whether major population changes of a given species (e.g., Dickcissel) in certain States are related to a continental decline or are merely a result of population shifts within the breeding range. Effects of urban and suburban expansion are often reflected in the loss of forest interior birds. Population trends for 230 species as well as several avian genera and families are discussed and graphed in this report. For most of these species, regional and well as continental trends are shown. The three major regions discussed are the Eastern, Central, and Western, bounded by the Mississippi River and the eastern base of the Rocky Mountains. Additional graphs for certain States or physiographic regions are included for selected species of special interest. The following paragraphs summarize general trends in the major bird families. The native herons in general are maintaining their populations, whereas the exotic Cattle Egret continues its geographic spread and its steady increase. Waterfowl as a group are stable or increasing. Although most widespread species of hawks are on the increase, the rarer species show evidence of decline. Among the gallinaceous birds, the greatest change was a sharp drop in Northern Bobwhite as a result of the exceptionally cold winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 in the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic States. Killdeer populations, except for a minor decline during these two winters, showed strong increases except in the West. American Woodcock were poorly sampled by the BBS because they were relatively inactive during daylight. Common Snipe and the other common shorebirds that nest in the United States and southern Canada exhibited stable or increasing populations, especially in the Eastern and Central regions. Herring Gull counts varied dramatically and irregularly from year to year. Laughing Gulls increased along the Atlantic coast and Franklin's Gulls declined in the interior of the continen

Foraging behavior of lactating South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens) and spatial-temporal resource overlap with the Uruguayan fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riet-Sapriza, Federico G.; Costa, Daniel P.; Franco-Trecu, Valentina; Marín, Yamandú; Chocca, Julio; González, Bernardo; Beathyate, Gastón; Louise Chilvers, B.; Hückstadt, Luis A.

2013-04-01

Resource competition between fisheries and marine mammal continue to raise concern worldwide. Understanding this complex conflict requires data on spatial and dietary overlap of marine mammal and fisheries. In Uruguay the South American sea lions population has been dramatically declining over the past decade. The reasons for this population decline are unknown but may include the following: (1) direct harvesting; (2) reduced prey availability and distribution as a consequence of environmental change; or (3) biological interaction with fisheries. This study aims to determine resource overlap and competition between South American sea lions (SASL, Otaria flavescens, n=10) and the artisanal fisheries (AF), and the coastal bottom trawl fisheries (CBTF). We integrated data on sea lions diet (scat analysis), spatial and annual consumption estimates; and foraging behavior-satellite-tracking data from lactating SASL with data on fishing effort areas and fisheries landings. We found that lactating SASL are benthic divers and forage in shallow water within the continental shelf. SASL's foraging areas overlapped with CBTF and AF fisheries operational areas. Dietary analysis indicated a high degree of overlap between the diet of SASL and the AF and CBTF fisheries catch. The results of our work show differing degrees of spatial resource overlap with AF and CBTF, highlighting that there are differences in potential impact from each fishery; and that different management/conservation approaches may need to be taken to solve the fisheries-SASL conflict.

Influences of herbivory and water on willow in elk winter range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Singer, F.J.; Williams, S.A.; Johnson, T.L.

2002-01-01

Elimination of large predators and reduced hunter harvest have led to concerns that an increasing elk (Cervus elaphus) population may be adversely affecting vegetation on the low-elevation elk winter range of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Beaver (Castor canadensis) and their impoundments also have declined dramatically (94%) in the same area over the past 50 years coincident with a 20% decline in willow (Salix spp.) cover. From 1994 to 1998, we studied vegetation production responses of willow communities to elk herbivory and water availability. We estimated willow production by measuring current annual growth of shrubs in 9.3-m2 circular plots, and we measured herbaceous production by clipping vegetation within 0.25-m2 circular plots. Elk herbivory suppressed willow heights, leader lengths, annual production, and herbaceous productivity of willow communities. Water impoundment had a positive effect on herbaceous plant production, but little effect on shrubs, possibly because water tables were naturally high on the study sites even without beaver dams. Nevertheless, the winter range environment previously included more riparian willow habitat because of more stream area (47-69%) due to larger beaver populations. Elk herbivory appears to be the dominant force determining vegetation productivity in willow sites, but the effects may be exacerbated by lowered water tables. Fewer elk or protection from browsing, and water enhancement for <10 years along with management to encourage elk movement away from willow communities, could possibly work as strategies to reestablish sustainable willow communities.

The impact of food price increases on caloric intake in China

PubMed Central

Jensen, Robert T.; Miller, Nolan H.

2011-01-01

World food prices have increased dramatically in recent years. We use panel data from 2006 to examine the impact of these increases on the consumption and nutrition of poor households in two Chinese provinces. We find that households in Hunan suffered no nutrition declines. Households in Gansu experienced a small decline in calories, though the decline is on par with usual seasonal effects. The overall nutritional impact of the world price increase was small because households were able to substitute to cheaper foods and because the domestic prices of staple foods remained low due to government intervention in grain markets. PMID:21625411

Role of genomics and transcriptomics in selection of reintroduction source populations.

PubMed

He, Xiaoping; Johansson, Mattias L; Heath, Daniel D

2016-10-01

The use and importance of reintroduction as a conservation tool to return a species to its historical range from which it has been extirpated will increase as climate change and human development accelerate habitat loss and population extinctions. Although the number of reintroduction attempts has increased rapidly over the past 2 decades, the success rate is generally low. As a result of population differences in fitness-related traits and divergent responses to environmental stresses, population performance upon reintroduction is highly variable, and it is generally agreed that selecting an appropriate source population is a critical component of a successful reintroduction. Conservation genomics is an emerging field that addresses long-standing challenges in conservation, and the potential for using novel molecular genetic approaches to inform and improve conservation efforts is high. Because the successful establishment and persistence of reintroduced populations is highly dependent on the functional genetic variation and environmental stress tolerance of the source population, we propose the application of conservation genomics and transcriptomics to guide reintroduction practices. Specifically, we propose using genome-wide functional loci to estimate genetic variation of source populations. This estimate can then be used to predict the potential for adaptation. We also propose using transcriptional profiling to measure the expression response of fitness-related genes to environmental stresses as a proxy for acclimation (tolerance) capacity. Appropriate application of conservation genomics and transcriptomics has the potential to dramatically enhance reintroduction success in a time of rapidly declining biodiversity and accelerating environmental change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Re-shifting the ecological baseline for the overexploited Mediterranean red coral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrabou, J.; Sala, E.; Linares, C.; Ledoux, J. B.; Montero-Serra, I.; Dominici, J. M.; Kipson, S.; Teixidó, N.; Cebrian, E.; Kersting, D. K.; Harmelin, J. G.

2017-02-01

Overexploitation leads to the ecological extinction of many oceanic species. The depletion of historical abundances of large animals, such as whales and sea turtles, is well known. However, the magnitude of the historical overfishing of exploited invertebrates is unclear. The lack of rigorous baseline data limits the implementation of efficient management and conservation plans in the marine realm. The precious Mediterranean red coral Corallium rubrum has been intensively exploited since antiquity for its use in jewellery. It shows dramatic signs of overexploitation, with no untouched populations known in shallow waters. Here, we report the discovery of an exceptional red coral population from a previously unexplored shallow underwater cave in Corsica (France) harbouring the largest biomass (by more than 100-fold) reported to date in the Mediterranean. Our findings challenge current assumptions on the pristine state of this emblematic species. Our results suggest that, before intense exploitation, red coral lived in relatively high-density populations with a large proportion of centuries-old colonies, even at very shallow depths. We call for the re-evaluation of the baseline for red coral and question the sustainability of the exploitation of a species that is still common but ecologically (functionally) extinct and in a trajectory of further decline.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

PubMed

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

The U.S. Radiologist Workforce: An Analysis of Temporal and Geographic Variation by Using Large National Datasets.

PubMed

Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Hughes, Danny R; Duszak, Richard

2016-04-01

To determine recent trends related to temporal as well as national and statewide geographic variation in the U.S. radiologist and radiology resident workforce. This retrospective HIPAA-compliant study was exempted from the internal review board. Federal Area Health Resources Files and Medicare 5% research identifiable files were used to compute parameters related to the radiologist workforce. Geographic variation and annual temporal trends were analyzed. Pearson and Spearman correlations were assessed. Nationally, the number of radiology trainees increased 84.2% from a nadir in 1997 (3080 trainees) to 2011 (5674 trainees) and showed high state-to-state variation (range, 0-678 trainees in 2011). However, total radiologists nationally increased 39.2% from 1995 (27 906 radiologists) to 2011 (38 875 radiologists), and radiologists per 100 000 population nationally increased by 7.5% from 1995 (10.62%) to 2011 (11.42%), while showing high state-to-state variation (highest-to-lowest state ratio of 4.3). Radiologists' share of the overall physician workforce declined nationally by 8.8% from 1995 (4.0%) to 2011 (3.7%), with moderate state-to-state variation (highest-to-lowest state ratio of 1.7). Radiology trainee numbers exhibited weak-to-moderate positive state-by-state correlation with radiologists per 100 000 population (r = 0.292-0.532), but moderate-to-strong inverse correlation with the percentage of radiologists in rural practice (r = -0.464 to -0.635). Although the number of radiology trainees dramatically increased, radiologists per 100 000 population increased only slightly, and radiologists' share of the overall physician workforce declined. State-to-state variations in radiologist and radiology resident workforces are high, which suggests a potential role for geographic redistribution rather than changes in the overall workforce size.

Invasive species and biodiversity crises: testing the link in the late devonian.

PubMed

Stigall, Alycia L

2010-12-29

During the Late Devonian Biodiversity Crisis, the primary driver of biodiversity decline was the dramatic reduction in speciation rates, not elevated extinction rates; however, the causes of speciation decline have been previously unstudied. Speciation, the formation of new species from ancestral populations, occurs by two primary allopatric mechanisms: vicariance, where the ancestral population is passively divided into two large subpopulations that later diverge and form two daughter species, and dispersal, in which a small subset of the ancestral population actively migrates then diverges to form a new species. Studies of modern and fossil clades typically document speciation by vicariance in much higher frequencies than speciation by dispersal. To assess the mechanism behind Late Devonian speciation reduction, speciation rates were calculated within stratigraphically constrained species-level phylogenetic hypotheses for three representative clades and mode of speciation at cladogenetic events was assessed across four clades in three phyla: Arthropoda, Brachiopoda, and Mollusca. In all cases, Devonian taxa exhibited a congruent reduction in speciation rate between the Middle Devonian pre-crisis interval and the Late Devonian crisis interval. Furthermore, speciation via vicariance is almost entirely absent during the crisis interval; most episodes of speciation during this time were due to dispersal. The shutdown of speciation by vicariance during this interval was related to widespread interbasinal species invasions. The lack of Late Devonian vicariance is diametrically opposed to the pattern observed in other geologic intervals, which suggests the loss of vicariant speciation attributable to species invasions during the Late Devonian was a causal factor in the biodiversity crisis. Similarly, modern ecosystems, in which invasive species are rampant, may be expected to exhibit similar shutdown of speciation by vicariance as an outcome of the modern biodiversity crisis.

A Quantitative Assessment of the Role of the Parasite Amoebophrya in the Termination of Alexandrium fundyense Blooms within a Small Coastal Embayment

PubMed Central

Velo-Suárez, Lourdes; Brosnahan, Michael L.; Anderson, Donald M.; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.

2013-01-01

Parasitic dinoflagellates of the genus Amoebophrya infect free-living dinoflagellates, some of which can cause harmful algal blooms (HABs). High prevalence of Amoebophrya spp. has been linked to the decline of some HABs in marine systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of Amoebophrya spp. on the dynamics of dinoflagellate blooms in Salt Pond (MA, USA), particularly the harmful species Alexandrium fundyense. The abundance of Amoebophrya life stages was estimated 3–7 days per week through the full duration of an annual A. fundyense bloom using fluorescence in situ hybridization coupled with tyramide signal amplification (FISH- TSA). More than 20 potential hosts were recorded including Dinophysis spp., Protoperidinium spp. and Gonyaulax spp., but the only dinoflagellate cells infected by Amoebophrya spp. during the sampling period were A. fundyense. Maximum A. fundyense concentration co-occurred with an increase of infected hosts, followed by a massive release of Amoebophrya dinospores in the water column. On average, Amoebophrya spp. infected and killed ∼30% of the A. fundyense population per day in the end phase of the bloom. The decline of the host A. fundyense population coincided with a dramatic life-cycle transition from vegetative division to sexual fusion. This transition occurred after maximum infected host concentrations and before peak infection percentages were observed, suggesting that most A. fundyense escaped parasite infection through sexual fusion. The results of this work highlight the importance of high frequency sampling of both parasite and host populations to accurately assess the impact of parasites on natural plankton assemblages. PMID:24324668

Is Chytridiomycosis an Emerging Infectious Disease in Asia?

PubMed Central

Swei, Andrea; Rowley, Jodi J. L.; Rödder, Dennis; Diesmos, Mae L. L.; Diesmos, Arvin C.; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Brown, Rafe; Cao, Trung Tien; Cheng, Tina L.; Chong, Rebecca A.; Han, Ben; Hero, Jean-Marc; Hoang, Huy Duc; Kusrini, Mirza D.; Le, Duong Thi Thuy; McGuire, Jimmy A.; Meegaskumbura, Madhava; Min, Mi-Sook; Mulcahy, Daniel G.; Neang, Thy; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Rao, Ding-Qi; Reeder, Natalie M.; Schoville, Sean D.; Sivongxay, Niane; Srei, Narin; Stöck, Matthias; Stuart, Bryan L.; Torres, Lilia S.; Tran, Dao Thi Anh; Tunstall, Tate S.; Vieites, David; Vredenburg, Vance T.

2011-01-01

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has caused dramatic amphibian population declines and extinctions in Australia, Central and North America, and Europe. Bd is associated with >200 species extinctions of amphibians, but not all species that become infected are susceptible to the disease. Specifically, Bd has rapidly emerged in some areas of the world, such as in Australia, USA, and throughout Central and South America, causing population and species collapse. The mechanism behind the rapid global emergence of the disease is poorly understood, in part due to an incomplete picture of the global distribution of Bd. At present, there is a considerable amount of geographic bias in survey effort for Bd, with Asia being the most neglected continent. To date, Bd surveys have been published for few Asian countries, and infected amphibians have been reported only from Indonesia, South Korea, China and Japan. Thus far, there have been no substantiated reports of enigmatic or suspected disease-caused population declines of the kind that has been attributed to Bd in other areas. In order to gain a more detailed picture of the distribution of Bd in Asia, we undertook a widespread, opportunistic survey of over 3,000 amphibians for Bd throughout Asia and adjoining Papua New Guinea. Survey sites spanned 15 countries, approximately 36° latitude, 111° longitude, and over 2000 m in elevation. Bd prevalence was very low throughout our survey area (2.35% overall) and infected animals were not clumped as would be expected in epizootic events. This suggests that Bd is either newly emerging in Asia, endemic at low prevalence, or that some other ecological factor is preventing Bd from fully invading Asian amphibians. The current observed pattern in Asia differs from that in many other parts of the world. PMID:21887238

Lincoln Co. Scrap Metal, Crab Orchard, Kentucky

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The City of Crab Orchard, KY (population less than 1,000) received a $200,000 EPA Brownfields cleanup grant in 2010 to cleanup up the Lincoln County ScrapMetal property. The site, a former scrap metal recycler and general junkyard, was located in the middle of downtown. The city has experienced a dramatic decline in growth over the past few years. The abandoned two-acre site is located in the city’s center, directly across the street from City Hall. It is the largest property on Main Street. The property was an eyesore, and posed potential health risks to area residents, and deterred investment. Its blighted status did little to help the commercial and private properties that surround it. The site was also home to a dilapidated building that once served as the Odd Fellows meeting hall.

Worldwide patterns of genomic variation and admixture in gray wolves

PubMed Central

Fan, Zhenxin; Silva, Pedro; Gronau, Ilan; Wang, Shuoguo; Armero, Aitor Serres; Schweizer, Rena M.; Ramirez, Oscar; Pollinger, John; Galaverni, Marco; Ortega Del-Vecchyo, Diego; Du, Lianming; Zhang, Wenping; Zhang, Zhihe; Xing, Jinchuan; Vilà, Carles; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Godinho, Raquel; Yue, Bisong; Wayne, Robert K.

2016-01-01

The gray wolf (Canis lupus) is a widely distributed top predator and ancestor of the domestic dog. To address questions about wolf relationships to each other and dogs, we assembled and analyzed a data set of 34 canine genomes. The divergence between New and Old World wolves is the earliest branching event and is followed by the divergence of Old World wolves and dogs, confirming that the dog was domesticated in the Old World. However, no single wolf population is more closely related to dogs, supporting the hypothesis that dogs were derived from an extinct wolf population. All extant wolves have a surprisingly recent common ancestry and experienced a dramatic population decline beginning at least ∼30 thousand years ago (kya). We suggest this crisis was related to the colonization of Eurasia by modern human hunter–gatherers, who competed with wolves for limited prey but also domesticated them, leading to a compensatory population expansion of dogs. We found extensive admixture between dogs and wolves, with up to 25% of Eurasian wolf genomes showing signs of dog ancestry. Dogs have influenced the recent history of wolves through admixture and vice versa, potentially enhancing adaptation. Simple scenarios of dog domestication are confounded by admixture, and studies that do not take admixture into account with specific demographic models are problematic. PMID:26680994

Polymorphic microsatellite markers for the rare and endangered cactus Uebelmannia pectinifera (Cactaceae) and its congeneric species.

PubMed

Moraes, E M; Cidade, F W; Silva, G A R; Machado, M C

2014-12-04

The cactus genus Uebelmannia includes 3 narrow endemic species associated with rocky savanna habitats in eastern South America. Because of their rarity and illegal over-collection, all of these species are endangered. Taxonomic uncertainties resulting from dramatic local variation in morphology within Uebelmannia species preclude effective conservation efforts, such as the reintroduction or translocation of plants, to restore declining populations. In this study, we developed and characterized 18 perfect, dinucleotide simple-sequence repeat markers for U. pectinifera, the most widely distributed species in the genus, and tested the cross-amplification of these markers in the remaining congeneric species and subspecies. All markers were polymorphic in a sample from 2 U. pectinifera populations. The effective number of alleles ranged from 1.6 to 8.7, with an average per population of 3.3 (SE ± 0.30) and 4.5 (SE ± 0.50). Expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.375 to 0.847 and 8-10 loci showed departures from Hardy- Weinberg equilibrium in the analyzed populations. Based on the observed polymorphism level of each marker, as well as the analysis of null allele presence and evidence of amplification of duplicate loci, a subset of 12 loci can be used as reliable markers to investigate the genetic structure, diversity, and species limits of the Uebelmannia genus.

Variations in early life history traits of Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus in the Yangtze River Estuary.

PubMed

Liu, Chunlong; Xian, Weiwei; Liu, Shude; Chen, Yifeng

2018-01-01

Resources of Japanese anchovy ( Engraulis japonicus Temminck & Schlegel, 1846) are undergoing dramatic recessions in China as the consequence of intensifying anthropogenic activities. Elucidating the influences of local-scale environmental factors on early life history traits is of great importance to design strategies conserving and restoring the declining anchovy resources. In this research, we studied hatching date and early growth of anchovy in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) using information obtained from otolith microstructure. Onset of hatching season and growth rates of anchovy was compared to populations in Japan and Taiwan. In YRE, the hatching date of anchovy ranged from February 26th to April 6th and mean growth rate ranged from 0.27 to 0.77 mm/d. Anchovies hatching later had higher growth rates than individuals hatching earlier before the 25th day. Among populations, hatching onsets of anchovy from the higher latitude were later than populations in the lower latitude, and growth rates of anchovy in YRE were much lower than populations in Japan and Taiwan. Variations in hatching onsets and early growth patterns of anchovy thus provide important knowledge on understanding the adaptation of anchovy in YRE and designing management strategies on conserving China's anchovy resources.

Lions and prions and deer demise.

PubMed

Miller, Michael W; Swanson, Heather M; Wolfe, Lisa L; Quartarone, Fred G; Huwer, Sherri L; Southwick, Charles H; Lukacs, Paul M

2008-01-01

Contagious prion diseases--scrapie of sheep and chronic wasting disease of several species in the deer family--give rise to epidemics that seem capable of compromising host population viability. Despite this prospect, the ecological consequences of prion disease epidemics in natural populations have received little consideration. Using a cohort study design, we found that prion infection dramatically lowered survival of free-ranging adult (>2-year-old) mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus): estimated average life expectancy was 5.2 additional years for uninfected deer but only 1.6 additional years for infected deer. Prion infection also increased nearly fourfold the rate of mountain lions (Puma concolor) preying on deer, suggesting that epidemics may alter predator-prey dynamics by facilitating hunting success. Despite selective predation, about one fourth of the adult deer we sampled were infected. High prevalence and low survival of infected deer provided a plausible explanation for the marked decline in this deer population since the 1980s. Remarkably high infection rates sustained in the face of intense predation show that even seemingly complete ecosystems may offer little resistance to the spread and persistence of contagious prion diseases. Moreover, the depression of infected populations may lead to local imbalances in food webs and nutrient cycling in ecosystems in which deer are important herbivores.

Water year 2004: Western water managers feel the heat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pagano, Thomas; Pasteris, Phil; Dettinger, Michael; Cayan, Daniel; Redmond, Kelly

2004-01-01

With much of the western U.S. already in its fifth year of drought, an above-average western snowpack on 1 March 2004 provided hope for much-needed abundant runoff. Unfortunately snowmelt began far earlier than anticipated, resulting in dramatic declines in seasonal spring-summer streamflow forecasts as the month proceeded, declines more rapid by some measures than ever before in the past 75 years. With reservoirs near historic lows, many water users have been hard pressed to deal with the continuing drought.

Multilocus assignment analyses reveal multiple units and rare migration events in the recently expanded yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes).

PubMed

Boessenkool, Sanne; Star, Bastiaan; Waters, Jonathan M; Seddon, Philip J

2009-06-01

The identification of demographically independent populations and the recognition of management units have been greatly facilitated by the continuing advances in genetic tools. Managements units now play a key role in short-term conservation management programmes of declining species, but their importance in expanding populations receives comparatively little attention. The endangered yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) expanded its range from the subantarctic to New Zealand's South Island a few hundred years ago and this new population now represents almost half of the species' total census size. This dramatic expansion attests to M. antipodes' high dispersal abilities and suggests the species is likely to constitute a single demographic population. Here we test this hypothesis of panmixia by investigating genetic differentiation and levels of gene flow among penguin breeding areas using 12 autosomal microsatellite loci along with mitochondrial control region sequence analyses for 350 individuals. Contrary to our hypothesis, however, the analyses reveal two genetically and geographically distinct assemblages: South Island vs. subantarctic populations. Using assignment tests, we recognize just two first-generation migrants between these populations (corresponding to a migration rate of < 2%), indicating that ongoing levels of long-distance migration are low. Furthermore, the South Island population has low genetic variability compared to the subantarctic population. These results suggest that the South Island population was founded by only a small number of individuals, and that subsequent levels of gene flow have remained low. The demographic independence of the two populations warrants their designation as distinct management units and conservation efforts should be adjusted accordingly to protect both populations.

Mute swans: Natural (?) environmental indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Day, D.; Perry, Matthew C.

2004-01-01

The rapid expansion of the Chesapeake Bay's population of feral mute swans (Cygnus olar), coupled with a dramatic Bay-wide decline in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), has fueled much of the current debate surrounding the need for a management plan to protect the aquatic food resources that are critical to many species native to the Bay. Crucial to this decision process is a sound understanding of the ecological ramifications of having the year-round presence of a large, nonnative, aquatic herbivore on the Bay. Ultimately, this will require a quantitative assessment of the ecological harm currently posed by mute swans before a biologically defensible management strategy can be developed. Unfortunately, very little new information specific to the Bay's mute swan population has been gathered since Reese first studied them in the late 1960s and 1970s. While the debate over what to do about the rapidly expanding mute swan population continues, there is much that can be gained from study of this beautiful intruder. Several recent studies of the feeding habits of mute swans have shown that mutes can provide a unique barometer, or indicator, of environmental conditions. Because of their reliance on SAV as a primary food source, monitoring the density of swans utilizing a particular area can give some indication of the status of the area's grass beds. This phenomenon was clearly demonstrated during the summer of 1999 when there was a dramatic decline in the number of swans observed around the Eastern Neck NWR, a traditional population stronghold. The shift in bird use was precipitated by a rapid, large-scale collapse of the area's aquatic grass beds, possibly the result of a prolonged drought. During the winter of 2000/2001, a similar ecological assessment was conducted by comparing body weights of swans collected from Tangier Sound, an area with relatively abundant grass beds, and swans from the waters adjacent to Eastern Neck Island. Swans weights tended to reflect the conditions of their surroundings, with the Tangier Sound birds being slightly heavier at the onset of the breeding season. Interestingly, the birds at Eastern Neck showed a 1 kg decline in weight after dispersal from their wintering locations and entered the breeding season with noticeably less subcutaneous fat than the birds sampled in Tangier Sound. The fact that mute swans are nonmigratory and feed exclusively on benthic food items makes them an ideal organ-ism to monitor the degree of contamination of sediments within the Bay. In 1995, we compared the accumulation of metals by mute swans and other waterfowl and related it to metal concentrations in the sediments from the areas where the birds were collected. This study led to the development of an exposure model that more accurately assesses the risk of exposure to environmental contaminants through incidental ingestion of sediments, as opposed to the traditional assessment of contaminant accumulation through the food chain. This sediment exposure pathway was subsequently shown to be the primary route of exposure of swans to metals in risk assessments conducted at two Superfund sites.

Uganda's HIV prevention success: the role of sexual behavior change and the national response.

PubMed

Green, Edward C; Halperin, Daniel T; Nantulya, Vinand; Hogle, Janice A

2006-07-01

There has been considerable interest in understanding what may have led to Uganda's dramatic decline in HIV prevalence, one of the world's earliest and most compelling AIDS prevention successes. Survey and other data suggest that a decline in multi-partner sexual behavior is the behavioral change most likely associated with HIV decline. It appears that behavior change programs, particularly involving extensive promotion of "zero grazing" (faithfulness and partner reduction), largely developed by the Ugandan government and local NGOs including faith-based, women's, people-living-with-AIDS and other community-based groups, contributed to the early declines in casual/multiple sexual partnerships and HIV incidence and, along with other factors including condom use, to the subsequent sharp decline in HIV prevalence. Yet the debate over "what happened in Uganda" continues, often involving divisive abstinence-versus-condoms rhetoric, which appears more related to the culture wars in the USA than to African social reality.

Assessing the effects of hybridization and precipitation on invasive weed demography using strength of selection on vital rates.

PubMed

Teitel, Zachary; Klimowski, Agnieszka; Campbell, Lesley G

2016-12-07

As global climate change transforms average temperature and rainfall, species distributions may meet, increasing the potential for hybridization and altering individual fitness and population growth. Altered rainfall specifically may shift the strength and direction of selection, also manipulating population trajectories. Here, we investigated the role of interspecific hybridization and selection imposed by rainfall on the evolution of weedy life-history in non-hybrid (Raphanus raphanistrum) and hybrid (R. raphanistrum x R. sativus) populations using a life table response experiment. In documenting long-term population dynamics, we determined intrinsic (r) and asymptotic (λ) population growth rates and sensitivities, a measure of selection imposed on demographic rates. Hybrid populations experienced 8.7-10.3 times stronger selection than wild populations for increased seedling survival. Whereas crop populations generally exhibit little dormancy and wild populations often exhibit dormancy, non-hybrid populations experienced 10% stronger selection than hybrid populations for exhibiting seed dormancy. Selection on survival-to-flowering in wild, not hybrid, populations declined marginally with increasing soil moisture. Hybrid populations exhibited greater r, but not λ, than wild populations regardless of moisture environment. In general, fecundity contributed most to differences in λ but fecundity only contributed positively to hybrid λ relative to wild λ when precipitation was altered (either higher or lower than control) and not under control watering conditions. Selection on key demographic traits may not change dramatically in response to rainfall, and hybridization may more strongly influence the demography of these weedy species than rainfall. If hybrid populations can respond to selection for increased dormancy, this may make it more difficult to deplete weed seed banks and increase the persistence of crop genes in weed populations.

[Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

PubMed

Kurz, R

1982-05-01

The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

Progress towards malaria elimination in Zimbabwe with special reference to the period 2003-2015.

PubMed

Sande, Shadreck; Zimba, Moses; Mberikunashe, Joseph; Tangwena, Andrew; Chimusoro, Anderson

2017-07-24

An intensive effort to control malaria in Zimbabwe has produced dramatic reductions in the burden of the disease over the past 13 years. The successes have prompted the Zimbabwe's National Malaria Control Programme to commit to elimination of malaria. It is critical to analyse the changes in the morbidity trends based on surveillance data, and scrutinize reorientation to strategies for elimination. This is a retrospective study of available Ministry of Health surveillance data and programme reports, mostly from 2003 to 2015. Malaria epidemiological data were drawn from the National Health Information System database. Data on available resources, malaria control strategies, morbidity and mortality trends were analysed, and opportunities for Zimbabwe malaria elimination agenda was perused. With strong government commitment and partner support, the financial gap for malaria programming shrank by 91.4% from about US$13 million in 2012 to US$1 million in 2015. Vector control comprises indoor residual house spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets, and spray coverage increased from 28% in 2003 to 95% in 2015. Population protected by IRS increased also from 20 to 96% for the same period. In 2009, diagnostics improved from clinical to parasitological confirmation either by rapid diagnostic tests or microscopy. Artemisinin-based combination therapy was used to treat malaria following chloroquine resistance in 2000, and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in 2004. In 2003, there were 155 malaria cases per 1000 populations reported from all health facilities throughout the country. The following decade witnessed a substantial decline in cases to only 22 per 1000 populations in 2012. A resurgence was reported in 2013 (29/1000) and 2014 (39/1000), thereafter morbidity declined to 29 cases per 1000 populations, only to the same level as in 2013. Overall, morbidity declined by 81% from 2003 to 2015. Inpatient malaria deaths per 100,000 populations doubled in 4 years, from 2/100,000 to 4/100,000 populations in 2012-2015 respectively. Twenty of the 47 moderate to high burdened districts were upgraded from control to malaria pre-elimination between 2012 and 2015. A significant progress to reduce malaria transmission in Zimbabwe has been made. While a great potential and opportunities to eliminate malaria in the country exist, elimination is not a business as usual approach. Instead, it needs an improved, systematic and new programmatic strategy supported strongly by political will, sustained funding, good leadership, community engagement, and a strong monitoring and evaluation system all year round until the cessation of local transmission.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

How Genes Have Illuminated the History of Early Americans and Latino Americans

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Linares, Andrés

2015-01-01

The American continent currently accounts for ∼15% of the world population. Although first settled thousands of years ago and fitting its label as “the New World,” the European colonial expansion initiated in the late 15th century resulted in people from virtually every corner of the globe subsequently settling in the Americas. The arrival of large numbers of immigrants led to a dramatic decline of the Native American population and extensive population mixing. A salient feature of the current human population of the Americas is, thus, its great diversity. The genetic variation of the Native peoples that recent immigrants encountered had been shaped by demographic events acting since the initial peopling of the continent. Similarly, but on a compressed timescale, the colonial history of the Americas has had a major impact on the genetic makeup of the current population of the continent. A range of genetic analyses has been used to study both the ancient settlement of the continent and more recent history of population mixing. Here, I show how these two strands of research overlap and make use of results from other scientific disciplines to produce a fuller picture of the settlement of the continent at different time periods. The biological diversity of the Americas also provides prominent examples of the complex interaction between biological and social factors in constructing human identities and of the difficulties in defining human populations. PMID:25256008

Climate variability and the collapse of a Chinook salmon stock (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindley, S.; Mohr, M.; Peterson, W. T.; Grimes, C.; Stein, J.; Anderson, J.; Botsford, L. W.; Bottom, D.; Busack, C.; Collier, T.; Ferguson, J.; Garza, C.; Grover, A.; Hankin, D.; Kope, R.; Lawson, P.; Low, A.; Macfarlane, B.; Moore, K.; Palmer-Zwahlen, M.; Schwing, F. B.; Smith, J.; Tracy, C.; Webb, R. S.; Wells, B.; Williams, T.

2009-12-01

As recently as 2002, nearly 1.5 million Sacrament River fall Chinook (SRFC) were caught in fisheries or returned to the Sacramento River basin to spawn. Only 66,000 spawners returned to natural areas and hatcheries in 2008. As a result of this dramatic decline, fisheries for Chinook salmon off California and Oregon were closed to protect SRFC in 2008 and 2009. In this paper, we show that the proximate cause of this unprecedented collapse was unusual but perhaps not unprecedented oceanographic conditions in the coastal ocean that created poor feeding conditions for juvenile salmon. The ultimate cause of the collapse may be the declining resilience of the Central Valley chinook complex that has been driven by a century and a half of land and water development. A simple conceptual model illustrates how the dynamics of a salmon population supplemented by hatchery production are influenced by trends in freshwater environmental quality, hatchery production, fitness, and climate. The model predicts that SRFC will recover to higher levels of abundance when ocean conditions improve (which may already be happening), only to decline sharply when ocean conditions again turn poor. Improving the sustainability of the Chinook salmon fishery depends on reversing trends in freshwater and estuarine habitat quality and quantity, which should also benefit runs of Chinook protected by the Endangered Species Act. Ecosystem-based management and ecological risk assessment will be required to make progress on these challenging problems, which are being exacerbated by climate change and human development.

Alaska goose populations: Past, present and future

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, James G.; Derksen, Dirk V.

1986-01-01

Many people think Alaska remains a pristine wilderness and that wildlife populations are still at prehistoric levels. This very likely is not true for the 11 species and subspecies of geese that nest in Alaska. Large, widely dispersed populations of geese were observed near the turn of the century. Even in the early 1970s, it was estimated that Alaskan habitats were used by 915,000 nesting and 100,000 additional migrating geese each year (King and Lensink 1971). Since then the Alaskan populations of most of these species have declined, some to dramatically low levels (Raveling 1984), even though habitats within the state have remained largely unaltered by man.The U.S. has treaties with Canada, Mexico, Japan and the Soviet Union to protect geese and other shared migratory birds, confirming international concern for the welfare of this resource. Cooperative research on Alaskan geese during the past several decades has given understanding of their migration corridors, staging and wintering habitats, and the principle places where they are hunted, thereby providing information needed to develop effective management plans. The only attempt to re-introduce geese in Alaska has been in the Aleutian Islands. Other opportunities exist.It is our intent here to: (1) review the historic and current status and important habitats of geese that occur in Alaska; (2) identify existing and potential threats to these populations; and (3) offer alternative management approaches for geese in Alaska.

Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries.

PubMed

Raftery, Adrian E; Li, Nan; Ševčíková, Hana; Gerland, Patrick; Heilig, Gerhard K

2012-08-28

Projections of countries' future populations, broken down by age and sex, are widely used for planning and research. They are mostly done deterministically, but there is a widespread need for probabilistic projections. We propose a bayesian method for probabilistic population projections for all countries. The total fertility rate and female and male life expectancies at birth are projected probabilistically using bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo using United Nations population data for all countries. These are then converted to age-specific rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of any population quantity of interest. The method is illustrated for five countries of different demographic stages, continents and sizes. The method is validated by an out of sample experiment in which data from 1950-1990 are used for estimation, and applied to predict 1990-2010. The method appears reasonably accurate and well calibrated for this period. The results suggest that the current United Nations high and low variants greatly underestimate uncertainty about the number of oldest old from about 2050 and that they underestimate uncertainty for high fertility countries and overstate uncertainty for countries that have completed the demographic transition and whose fertility has started to recover towards replacement level, mostly in Europe. The results also indicate that the potential support ratio (persons aged 20-64 per person aged 65+) will almost certainly decline dramatically in most countries over the coming decades.

Physical Activity Interventions in Preventing Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer-Type Dementia: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Brasure, Michelle; Desai, Priyanka; Davila, Heather; Nelson, Victoria A; Calvert, Collin; Jutkowitz, Eric; Butler, Mary; Fink, Howard A; Ratner, Edward; Hemmy, Laura S; McCarten, J Riley; Barclay, Terry R; Kane, Robert L

2018-01-02

The prevalence of cognitive impairment and dementia is expected to increase dramatically as the population ages, creating burdens on families and health care systems. To assess the effectiveness of physical activity interventions in slowing cognitive decline and delaying the onset of cognitive impairment and dementia in adults without diagnosed cognitive impairments. Several electronic databases from January 2009 to July 2017 and bibliographies of systematic reviews. Trials published in English that lasted 6 months or longer, enrolled adults without clinically diagnosed cognitive impairments, and compared cognitive and dementia outcomes between physical activity interventions and inactive controls. Extraction by 1 reviewer and confirmed by a second; dual-reviewer assessment of risk of bias; consensus determination of strength of evidence. Of 32 eligible trials, 16 with low to moderate risk of bias compared a physical activity intervention with an inactive control. Most trials had 6-month follow-up; a few had 1- or 2-year follow-up. Evidence was insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of aerobic training, resistance training, or tai chi for improving cognition. Low-strength evidence showed that multicomponent physical activity interventions had no effect on cognitive function. Low-strength evidence showed that a multidomain intervention comprising physical activity, diet, and cognitive training improved several cognitive outcomes. Evidence regarding effects on dementia prevention was insufficient for all physical activity interventions. Heterogeneous interventions and cognitive test measures, small and underpowered studies, and inability to assess the clinical significance of cognitive test outcomes. Evidence that short-term, single-component physical activity interventions promote cognitive function and prevent cognitive decline or dementia in older adults is largely insufficient. A multidomain intervention showed a delay in cognitive decline (low-strength evidence). Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

THE IMPACT OF EMERGING SAFETY AND EFFECTIVENESS EVIDENCE ON THE USE OF PHYSICIAN-ADMINISTERED DRUGS: THE CASE OF BEVACIZUMAB FOR BREAST CANCER

PubMed Central

Conti, Rena M.; Dusetzina, Stacie B.; Herbert, Ann C.; Berndt, Ernst R.; Huskamp, Haiden A.; Keating, Nancy L.

2014-01-01

Background Spending on physician-administered drugs is high and uses not approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are frequent. While these drugs may be targets of future policy efforts to rationalize use, little is known regarding how physicians respond to emerging safety and effectiveness evidence. Study objective We analyzed changes in bevacizumab (Avastin™) use for breast cancer in response to its market launch (Feb-2008), two FDA meetings reviewing data suggesting that its risks exceed its benefits (July-2010, June-2011), and the FDA’s withdrawal of approval (Nov-2011). Data Data from a population-based audit of oncologists’ prescribing (IntrinsiQ Intellidose) were used to measure the monthly number of breast cancer patients treated with bevacizumab January, 2008-April,2012. Methods The number of bevacizumab patients following each regulatory action was estimated using negative binomial regression, compared with patients before the first FDA meeting, adjusting for cancer stage, treatment line, patient age and outpatient office affiliation. Results Bevacizumab use for breast cancer increased significantly after FDA approval. Following all regulatory actions, there was a 65% decline (95%CI=64%-65%) in use compared with the period before the first meeting. The largest decline was in the six-month period following the first meeting (37%, 95%CI=28%-47%). The rate of decline did not differ by patient or cancer characteristics and differed minimally by office affiliation. Discussion Bevacizumab use for breast cancer declined dramatically after FDA meetings and regulatory actions, a period without changes in guideline recommendations or insurance coverage. Physicians appear responsive to emerging evidence concerning physician-administered drug safety and effectiveness. PMID:23604014

Coincident patterns of waste water suspended solids reduction, water transparency increase and chlorophyll decline in Narragansett Bay.

PubMed

Borkman, David G; Smayda, Theodore J

2016-06-15

Dramatic changes occurred in Narragansett Bay during the 1980s: water clarity increased, while phytoplankton abundance and chlorophyll concentration decreased. We examine how changes in total suspended solids (TSS) loading from wastewater treatment plants may have influenced this decline in phytoplankton chlorophyll. TSS loading, light and phytoplankton observations were compiled and a light- and temperature-dependent Skeletonema-based phytoplankton growth model was applied to evaluate chlorophyll supported by TSS nitrogen during 1983-1995. TSS loading declined 75% from ~0.60×10(6)kgmonth(-1) to ~0.15×10(6)kgmonth(-1) during 1983-1995. Model results indicate that nitrogen reduction related to TSS reduction was minor and explained a small fraction (~15%) of the long-term chlorophyll decline. The decline in NBay TSS loading appears to have increased water clarity and in situ irradiance and contributed to the long-term chlorophyll decline by inducing a physiological response of a ~20% reduction in chlorophyll per cell. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consequences of dramatic reductions in state tobacco control funds: Florida, 1998-2000.

PubMed

Niederdeppe, J; Farrelly, M C; Hersey, J C; Davis, K C

2008-06-01

This study assessed whether dramatic funding reductions to the Florida Tobacco Control Program (FTCP) influenced trends in recall of the Florida "truth" anti-smoking media campaign, anti-industry attitudes and non-smoking intentions among Florida teens. We used an interrupted time series technique to test for differences in the rates of change in Florida "truth" recall, anti-industry beliefs and non-smoking intentions before and after the FTCP budget cuts using the Florida Anti-tobacco Media Evaluation (FAME) survey, a repeated cross-sectional telephone survey of Florida teens. Recall of the Florida "truth" anti-smoking campaign, anti-industry attitudes, and non-smoking intentions increased dramatically between April 1998 and May 1999. Florida "truth" recall declined after FTCP budget cuts in June 1999. Anti-industry beliefs and non-smoking intentions plateaued or began to decline after the budget cuts. The launch of the national "truth" campaign in February 2000 may have offset otherwise deleterious effects of the budget cuts on anti-industry beliefs, but not smoking intentions. Reductions in tobacco control funding have immediate effects on programme exposure and cognitive precursors to smoking initiation. There is a critical need to maintain and enhance funding for state tobacco control programmes to continue nationwide progress in preventing youth from initiating cigarette smoking.

Labor Force Trends: A Synthesis and Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bednarzik, Robert W.; Klein, Deborah P.

1977-01-01

Since 1950, social changes and employment-retirement experiences have contributed to a dramatic increase in labor force participation rates for women, a slower but steady decline for men, and a mixed pattern for teenagers. Tables and charts depict data analyzed in the text. (MF)

Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research.

PubMed

Menge, Bruce A; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

2016-01-01

Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5-15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the "Sea Star associated Densovirus" (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed coast-wide investigation of the effects of this outbreak.

Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research

PubMed Central

Menge, Bruce A.; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B.; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

2016-01-01

Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5–15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the “Sea Star associated Densovirus” (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed coast-wide investigation of the effects of this outbreak. PMID:27144391

Fertility trends in Singapore.

PubMed

Singh, K; Viegas, O; Ratnam, S S

1988-10-01

In 1966, the Singapore National Family Planning and Population Program established the goal of reaching replacement fertility by 1990 and zero population growth by the year 2030. To achieve this goal, the government relied on a series of incentives and disincentives to discourage births above the 3rd birth order, including tax relief for the 1st 3 children only, paid medical leave for women undergoing sterilization after the 3rd or subsequent birth, monetary stipends in some cases where the mother is sterilized after the 1st or 2nd birth, and increasing accouchement charges for increasing birth orders. Also important to demographic planning were liberalization of Singapore's abortion legislation and more aggressive promotion of contraception. As a result of these efforts, Singapore's crude birth rate has declined from 29.5/1000 population in 1965 to 16.6/1000 in 1985. Also observed have been dramatic declines in infant mortality in this same period, from 26.2/1000 live births to 9.3/1000, and in maternal mortality, from 52/100,000 live births to 10/100,000. In 1985, 42% of total births were to women in the 25-29-year age group. The numbers of 4th and later births fell by 90% between 1966 and 1985. The total fertility rate has declined from 4.6/woman in 1965 to 3.1 in 1970 to 1.6 in 1986. Below replacement level fertility was achieved in 1975, in part because of government policy but also as a result of cultural and socioeconomic factors such as increasing female labor force participation rates, a break-up of the extended family system, a rise in the age at 1st marriage, and rises in educational attainment. The drop in fertility was contributed mainly by the higher socioeconomic class, more affluent, and educated Singaporeans. Thus, in 1981, the government introduced certain pronatalist policies and incentives to encourage better educated women to produce more children, e.g., tax relief and the elimination of monetary incentives to sterilization acceptors above a median income level.

Potential for restoration of the Roanoke River population of Atlantic sturgeon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, J.L.; Hightower, J.E.

2002-01-01

The Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) was historically abundant within Albemarie Sound and the Roanoke River in North Carolina, but declined dramatically in the late 1800s in response to intensive fishing. Recent evidence suggests that the population may be recovering, following a statewide prohibition on harvest in 1991. A recruitment index generally increased from 1992 through 2001. Estuarine habitat for juveniles appears to be suitable, resulting in mean growth rates for age 1 fish ranging from 0.59 to 0.81 mm day-1. A restoration goal of 7000-21 000 subadult and adult Atlantic sturgeon was developed for the Roanoke River, based on historical landings records. Bycatch mortality because of commercial gill-netting in Albermarle Sound could affect recovery. Telemetry and netting data indicate that juvenile Atlantic sturgeon in the sound are most abundant in shallow nearshore areas where commercial gill-netting is concentrated. However, immediate mortality rates from survey and commercial gill-netting in Albemarle Sound were only 0-2%. Additional field studies are needed to refine estimates of immediate- and longer-term mortality associated with gill-net bycatch.

Cheetahs and wild dogs show contrasting patterns of suppression by lions.

PubMed

Swanson, Alexandra; Caro, Tim; Davies-Mostert, Harriet; Mills, Michael G L; Macdonald, David W; Borner, Markus; Masenga, Emmanuel; Packer, Craig

2014-11-01

Top predators can dramatically suppress populations of smaller predators, with cascading effects throughout communities, and this pressure is often unquestioningly accepted as a constraint on mesopredator populations. In this study, we reassess whether African lions suppress populations of cheetahs and African wild dogs and examine possible mechanisms for coexistence between these species. Using long-term records from Serengeti National Park, we tested 30 years of population data for evidence of mesopredator suppression, and we examined six years of concurrent radio-telemetry data for evidence of large-scale spatial displacement. The Serengeti lion population nearly tripled between 1966 and 1998; during this time, wild dogs declined but cheetah numbers remained largely unchanged. Prior to their local extinction, wild dogs primarily occupied low lion density areas and apparently abandoned the long-term study area as the lion population 'saturated' the region. In contrast, cheetahs mostly utilized areas of high lion density, and the stability of the cheetah population indicates that neither high levels of lion-inflicted mortality nor behavioural avoidance inflict sufficient demographic consequences to translate into population-level effects. Population data from fenced reserves in southern Africa revealed a similar contrast between wild dogs and cheetahs in their ability to coexist with lions. These findings demonstrate differential responses of subordinate species within the same guild and challenge a widespread perception that lions undermine cheetah conservation efforts. Paired with several recent studies that document fine-scale lion-avoidance by cheetahs, this study further highlights fine-scale spatial avoidance as a possible mechanism for mitigating mesopredator suppression. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Physiological geroscience: targeting function to increase healthspan and achieve optimal longevity

PubMed Central

Justice, Jamie N.; LaRocca, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

Abstract Most nations of the world are undergoing rapid and dramatic population ageing, which presents great socio‐economic challenges, as well as opportunities, for individuals, families, governments and societies. The prevailing biomedical strategy for reducing the healthcare impact of population ageing has been ‘compression of morbidity’ and, more recently, to increase healthspan, both of which seek to extend the healthy period of life and delay the development of chronic diseases and disability until a brief period at the end of life. Indeed, a recently established field within biological ageing research, ‘geroscience’, is focused on healthspan extension. Superimposed on this background are new attitudes and demand for ‘optimal longevity’ – living long, but with good health and quality of life. A key obstacle to achieving optimal longevity is the progressive decline in physiological function that occurs with ageing, which causes functional limitations (e.g. reduced mobility) and increases the risk of chronic diseases, disability and mortality. Current efforts to increase healthspan centre on slowing the fundamental biological processes of ageing such as inflammation/oxidative stress, increased senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, impaired proteostasis and reduced stress resistance. We propose that optimization of physiological function throughout the lifespan should be a major emphasis of any contemporary biomedical policy addressing global ageing. Effective strategies should delay, reduce in magnitude or abolish reductions in function with ageing (primary prevention) and/or improve function or slow further declines in older adults with already impaired function (secondary prevention). Healthy lifestyle practices featuring regular physical activity and ideal energy intake/diet composition represent first‐line function‐preserving strategies, with pharmacological agents, including existing and new pharmaceuticals and novel ‘nutraceutical’ compounds, serving as potential complementary approaches. Future research efforts should focus on defining the temporal patterns of functional declines with ageing, identifying the underlying mechanisms and modulatory factors involved, and establishing the most effective lifestyle practices and pharmacological options for maintaining function. Continuing development of effective behavioural approaches for enhancing adherence to healthy ageing practices in diverse populations, and ongoing analysis of the socio‐economic costs and benefits of healthspan extension will be important supporting goals. To meet the demands created by rapid population ageing, a new emphasis in physiological geroscience is needed, which will require the collaborative, interdisciplinary efforts of investigators working throughout the translational research continuum from basic science to public health. PMID:25639909

Physiological geroscience: targeting function to increase healthspan and achieve optimal longevity.

PubMed

Seals, Douglas R; Justice, Jamie N; LaRocca, Thomas J

2016-04-15

Most nations of the world are undergoing rapid and dramatic population ageing, which presents great socio-economic challenges, as well as opportunities, for individuals, families, governments and societies. The prevailing biomedical strategy for reducing the healthcare impact of population ageing has been 'compression of morbidity' and, more recently, to increase healthspan, both of which seek to extend the healthy period of life and delay the development of chronic diseases and disability until a brief period at the end of life. Indeed, a recently established field within biological ageing research, 'geroscience', is focused on healthspan extension. Superimposed on this background are new attitudes and demand for 'optimal longevity' - living long, but with good health and quality of life. A key obstacle to achieving optimal longevity is the progressive decline in physiological function that occurs with ageing, which causes functional limitations (e.g. reduced mobility) and increases the risk of chronic diseases, disability and mortality. Current efforts to increase healthspan centre on slowing the fundamental biological processes of ageing such as inflammation/oxidative stress, increased senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, impaired proteostasis and reduced stress resistance. We propose that optimization of physiological function throughout the lifespan should be a major emphasis of any contemporary biomedical policy addressing global ageing. Effective strategies should delay, reduce in magnitude or abolish reductions in function with ageing (primary prevention) and/or improve function or slow further declines in older adults with already impaired function (secondary prevention). Healthy lifestyle practices featuring regular physical activity and ideal energy intake/diet composition represent first-line function-preserving strategies, with pharmacological agents, including existing and new pharmaceuticals and novel 'nutraceutical' compounds, serving as potential complementary approaches. Future research efforts should focus on defining the temporal patterns of functional declines with ageing, identifying the underlying mechanisms and modulatory factors involved, and establishing the most effective lifestyle practices and pharmacological options for maintaining function. Continuing development of effective behavioural approaches for enhancing adherence to healthy ageing practices in diverse populations, and ongoing analysis of the socio-economic costs and benefits of healthspan extension will be important supporting goals. To meet the demands created by rapid population ageing, a new emphasis in physiological geroscience is needed, which will require the collaborative, interdisciplinary efforts of investigators working throughout the translational research continuum from basic science to public health. © 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2015 The Physiological Society.

Seroepidemiology of upper respiratory tract disease in the desert tortoise of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Mary B.; Berry, Kristin H.; Schumacher, Isabella M.; Nagy, Kenneth A.; Christopher, Mary M.; Klein, Paul A.

1999-01-01

Several factors have combined with an upper respiratory tract disease (URTD) to produce declines on some population numbers of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in the western USA. This study was designed to determine the seroepidemiology of URTD in a population of wild adult tortoises at the Desert Tortoise Research Natural Area (DTNA) study site in Kern County (California, USA). Prior to initiation of the study, there was a dramatic decline in the number of individuals in this population. At each individual time point, samples were obtained from 12 to 20 tortoises with radiotransmitters during winter, spring, summer, and fall from 1992 through 1995. During the course of the study, 35 animals were sampled at one or more times. Only 10 animals were available for consistent monitoring throughout the 4 yr period. Specific antibody (Ab) levels to Mycoplasma agassizii were determined for individual tortoises by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test. Specific Ab levels were not influenced by the gender of the tortoise. Levels of Ab and distribution of ELISA+, ELISA– and suspect animals were not consistently affected by season within a single year or for a season among the study years. Significantly more tortoises presented with clinical signs in 1992 and 1995. The profile of ELISA+ animals with clinical signs shifted from 5% (1992) to 42% (1995). In 1992, 52% of tortoises lacked clinical signs and were ELISA–. In 1995, this category accounted for only 19% of tortoises. Based on the results of this study, we conclude that URTD was present in this population as evidenced by the presence of ELISA+ individual animals, and that the infectious agent is still present as evidenced by seroconversion of previously ELISA– animals during the course of the study. There is evidence to suggest that animals may remain ELISA+ without showing overt disease, a clinical pattern consistent with the chronic nature of most mycoplasmal infections. Further, there are trends suggesting that the clinical expression of disease may be cyclical. Continued monitoring of this population could provide valuable information concerning the spread of URTD in wild tortoise populations.

Influence of Climate Warming on Arctic Mammals? New Insights from Ancient DNA Studies of the Collared Lemming Dicrostonyx torquatus

PubMed Central

Prost, Stefan; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Sommer, Robert S.; Stiller, Mathias; Nagel, Doris; Knapp, Michael; Hofreiter, Michael

2010-01-01

Background Global temperature increased by approximately half a degree (Celsius) within the last 150 years. Even this moderate warming had major impacts on Earth's ecological and biological systems, especially in the Arctic where the magnitude of abiotic changes even exceeds those in temperate and tropical biomes. Therefore, understanding the biological consequences of climate change on high latitudes is of critical importance for future conservation of the species living in this habitat. The past 25,000 years can be used as a model for such changes, as they were marked by prominent climatic changes that influenced geographical distribution, demographic history and pattern of genetic variation of many extant species. We sequenced ancient and modern DNA of the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx torquatus), which is a key species of the arctic biota, from a single site (Pymva Shor, Northern Pre Urals, Russia) to see if climate warming events after the Last Glacial Maximum had detectable effects on the genetic variation of this arctic rodent species, which is strongly associated with a cold and dry climate. Results Using three dimensional network reconstructions we found a dramatic decline in genetic diversity following the LGM. Model-based approaches such as Approximate Bayesian Computation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian inference show that there is evidence for a population decline in the collared lemming following the LGM, with the population size dropping to a minimum during the Greenland Interstadial 1 (Bølling/Allerød) warming phase at 14.5 kyrs BP. Conclusion Our results show that previous climate warming events had a strong influence on genetic diversity and population size of collared lemmings. Due to its already severely compromised genetic diversity a similar population reduction as a result of the predicted future climate change could completely abolish the remaining genetic diversity in this population. Local population extinctions of collared lemmings would have severe effects on the arctic ecosystem, as collared lemmings are a key species in the trophic interactions and ecosystem processes in the Arctic. PMID:20523724

Impact of integrated health system changes, accelerated due to an earthquake, on emergency department attendances and acute admissions: a Bayesian change-point analysis.

PubMed

Schluter, Philip J; Hamilton, Greg J; Deely, Joanne M; Ardagh, Michael W

2016-05-11

To chart emergency department (ED) attendance and acute admission following a devastating earthquake in 2011 which lead to Canterbury's rapidly accelerated integrated health system transformations. Interrupted time series analysis, modelling using Bayesian change-point methods, of ED attendance and acute admission rates over the 2008-2014 period. ED department within the Canterbury District Health Board; with comparison to two other district health boards unaffected by the earthquake within New Zealand. Canterbury's health system services ∼500 000 people, with around 85 000 ED attendances and 37 000 acute admissions per annum. De-seasoned standardised population ED attendance and acute admission rates overall, and stratified by age and sex, compared before and after the earthquake. Analyses revealed five global patterns: (1) postearthquake, there was a sudden and persisting decrease in the proportion of the population attending the ED; (2) the growth rate of ED attendances per head of population did not change between the pre-earthquake and postearthquake periods; (3) postearthquake, there was a sudden and persisting decrease in the proportion of the population admitted to hospital; (4) the growth rate of hospital admissions per head of the population declined between pre-earthquake and postearthquake periods and (5) the most dramatic reduction in hospital admissions growth after the earthquake occurred among those aged 65+ years. Extrapolating from the projected and fitted deseasoned rates for December 2014, ∼676 (16.8%) of 4035 projected hospital admissions were avoided. While both necessarily and opportunistically accelerated, Canterbury's integrated health systems transformations have resulted in a dramatic and sustained reduction in ED attendances and acute hospital admissions. This natural intervention experiment, triggered by an earthquake, demonstrated that integrated health systems with high quality out-of-hospital care models are likely to successfully curb growth in acute hospital demand, nationally and internationally. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Relation between speech-in-noise threshold, hearing loss and cognition from 40-69 years of age.

PubMed

Moore, David R; Edmondson-Jones, Mark; Dawes, Piers; Fortnum, Heather; McCormack, Abby; Pierzycki, Robert H; Munro, Kevin J

2014-01-01

Healthy hearing depends on sensitive ears and adequate brain processing. Essential aspects of both hearing and cognition decline with advancing age, but it is largely unknown how one influences the other. The current standard measure of hearing, the pure-tone audiogram is not very cognitively demanding and does not predict well the most important yet challenging use of hearing, listening to speech in noisy environments. We analysed data from UK Biobank that asked 40-69 year olds about their hearing, and assessed their ability on tests of speech-in-noise hearing and cognition. About half a million volunteers were recruited through NHS registers. Respondents completed 'whole-body' testing in purpose-designed, community-based test centres across the UK. Objective hearing (spoken digit recognition in noise) and cognitive (reasoning, memory, processing speed) data were analysed using logistic and multiple regression methods. Speech hearing in noise declined exponentially with age for both sexes from about 50 years, differing from previous audiogram data that showed a more linear decline from <40 years for men, and consistently less hearing loss for women. The decline in speech-in-noise hearing was especially dramatic among those with lower cognitive scores. Decreasing cognitive ability and increasing age were both independently associated with decreasing ability to hear speech-in-noise (0.70 and 0.89 dB, respectively) among the population studied. Men subjectively reported up to 60% higher rates of difficulty hearing than women. Workplace noise history associated with difficulty in both subjective hearing and objective speech hearing in noise. Leisure noise history was associated with subjective, but not with objective difficulty hearing. Older people have declining cognitive processing ability associated with reduced ability to hear speech in noise, measured by recognition of recorded spoken digits. Subjective reports of hearing difficulty generally show a higher prevalence than objective measures, suggesting that current objective methods could be extended further.

Relation between Speech-in-Noise Threshold, Hearing Loss and Cognition from 40–69 Years of Age

PubMed Central

Moore, David R.; Edmondson-Jones, Mark; Dawes, Piers; Fortnum, Heather; McCormack, Abby; Pierzycki, Robert H.; Munro, Kevin J.

2014-01-01

Background Healthy hearing depends on sensitive ears and adequate brain processing. Essential aspects of both hearing and cognition decline with advancing age, but it is largely unknown how one influences the other. The current standard measure of hearing, the pure-tone audiogram is not very cognitively demanding and does not predict well the most important yet challenging use of hearing, listening to speech in noisy environments. We analysed data from UK Biobank that asked 40–69 year olds about their hearing, and assessed their ability on tests of speech-in-noise hearing and cognition. Methods and Findings About half a million volunteers were recruited through NHS registers. Respondents completed ‘whole-body’ testing in purpose-designed, community-based test centres across the UK. Objective hearing (spoken digit recognition in noise) and cognitive (reasoning, memory, processing speed) data were analysed using logistic and multiple regression methods. Speech hearing in noise declined exponentially with age for both sexes from about 50 years, differing from previous audiogram data that showed a more linear decline from <40 years for men, and consistently less hearing loss for women. The decline in speech-in-noise hearing was especially dramatic among those with lower cognitive scores. Decreasing cognitive ability and increasing age were both independently associated with decreasing ability to hear speech-in-noise (0.70 and 0.89 dB, respectively) among the population studied. Men subjectively reported up to 60% higher rates of difficulty hearing than women. Workplace noise history associated with difficulty in both subjective hearing and objective speech hearing in noise. Leisure noise history was associated with subjective, but not with objective difficulty hearing. Conclusions Older people have declining cognitive processing ability associated with reduced ability to hear speech in noise, measured by recognition of recorded spoken digits. Subjective reports of hearing difficulty generally show a higher prevalence than objective measures, suggesting that current objective methods could be extended further. PMID:25229622

Cumulative incidence of cancer among individuals with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States.

PubMed

Simard, Edgar P; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

2011-03-01

The overall burden of cancer may increase as individuals with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) live longer because of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), which has been widely available since 1996. A population-based, record-linkage study identified cancers in 472,378 individuals with AIDS from 1980 to 2006. By using nonparametric competing-risk methods, the cumulative incidence of cancer was estimated across 3 calendar periods (AIDS onset in 1980-1989, 1990-1995, and 1996-2006). Measured at 5 years after AIDS onset, the cumulative incidence of AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) declined sharply across the 3 AIDS calendar periods (from 18% in 1980-1989, to 11% in 1990-1995, to 4.2% in 1996-2006 [ie, the HAART era]). The cumulative incidence of Kaposi sarcoma declined from 14.3% during 1980 to 1989, to 6.7% during 1990 to 1995, and to 1.8% during 1996 to 2006. The cumulative incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) declined from 3.8% during 1990 through 1995 to 2.2% during 1996 through 2006; during the HAART era, NHL was the most common ADC (53%). The cumulative incidence of non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC) increased from 1.1% to 1.5% with no change thereafter (1%; 1996-2006), in part because of declines in competing mortality. However, cumulative incidence increased steadily over time for specific NADCs (anal cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and liver cancer). The cumulative incidence of lung cancer increased from 0.14% during 1980 to 1989 to 0.32% during 1990 to 1995, and no change was observed thereafter. Dramatically declining cumulative incidence was noted in 2 major ADCs (Kaposi sarcoma and NHL), and increases were observed in some NADCs (specifically, cancers of the anus, liver, and lung and Hodgkin lymphoma). As HIV/AIDS is increasingly managed as a chronic disease, greater attention should be focused on cancer screening and prevention. Published 2010 American Cancer Society.

Microsatellite Analysis of Museum Specimens Reveals Historical Differences in Genetic Diversity between Declining and More Stable Bombus Species.

PubMed

Maebe, Kevin; Meeus, Ivan; Ganne, Maarten; De Meulemeester, Thibaut; Biesmeijer, Koos; Smagghe, Guy

2015-01-01

Worldwide most pollinators, e.g. bumblebees, are undergoing global declines. Loss of genetic diversity can play an essential role in these observed declines. In this paper, we investigated the level of genetic diversity of seven declining Bombus species and four more stable species with the use of microsatellite loci. Hereto we genotyped a unique collection of museum specimens. Specimens were collected between 1918 and 1926, in 6 provinces of the Netherlands which allowed us to make interspecific comparisons of genetic diversity. For the stable species B. pascuorum, we also selected populations from two additional time periods: 1949-1955 and 1975-1990. The genetic diversity and population structure in B. pascuorum remained constant over the three time periods. However, populations of declining bumblebee species showed a significantly lower genetic diversity than co-occurring stable species before their major declines. This historical difference indicates that the repeatedly observed reduced genetic diversity in recent populations of declining bumblebee species is not caused solely by the decline itself. The historically low genetic diversity in the declined species may be due to the fact that these species were already rare, making them more vulnerable to the major drivers of bumblebee decline.

DETERMINANTS OF RESIDENTIAL LEAD EXPOSURE

EPA Science Inventory

The phase-out of leaded gasoline, and the accompanying decrease in lead emissions, resulted in a dramatic decline in mean blood lead levels from the late 1970s through the early 1990s. Nonetheless, lead exposures remain a public health concern. Long-term exposures to even low...

Population trends from the American woodcock singing-ground survey, 1970-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Bortner, J.B.

1991-01-01

Population trend analysis of American woodcook (Scolopax minor) using data from a singing-ground survey indicates population declines throughout the breeding range of the species between 1970 and 1988. In the eastern United States and Canada, this decline has been quite consistent throughout the period, but in the central portion of the continent the population increased during the 1970's and declined during the early 1980's. Observers differ in their ability to hear woodcock, and we document observer differences in the singing-ground survey data and incorporate them into our analyses. Habitat changes have been suggested as the most likely cause of declines in woodcock populations.

Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan.

PubMed

Morisaki, Naho; Urayama, Kevin Yuji; Yoshii, Keisuke; Subramanian, S V; Yokoya, Susumu

2017-10-01

Japan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s. We observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969-2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan. LBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978-1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=-0.98; women, r=-0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014. Adult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Dementia in the oldest old: a multi-factorial and growing public health issue.

PubMed

Gardner, Raquel C; Valcour, Victor; Yaffe, Kristine

2013-01-01

The population of oldest old, or people aged 85 and older, is growing rapidly. A better understanding of dementia in this population is thus of increasing national and global importance. In this review, we describe the major epidemiological studies, prevalence, clinical presentation, neuropathological and imaging features, risk factors, and treatment of dementia in the oldest old. Prevalence estimates for dementia among those aged 85+ ranges from 18 to 38%. The most common clinical syndromes are Alzheimer's dementia, vascular dementia, and mixed dementia from multiple etiologies. The rate of progression appears to be slower than in the younger old. Single neuropathological entities such as Alzheimer's dementia and Lewy body pathology appear to have declining relevance to cognitive decline, while mixed pathology with Alzheimer's disease, vascular disease (especially cortical microinfarcts), and hippocampal sclerosis appear to have increasing relevance. Neuroimaging data are sparse. Risk factors for dementia in the oldest old include a low level of education, poor mid-life general health, low level of physical activity, depression, and delirium, whereas apolipoprotein E genotype, late-life hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and elevated peripheral inflammatory markers appear to have less relevance. Treatment approaches require further study, but the oldest old may be more prone to negative side effects compared with younger patients and targeted therapies may be less efficacious since single pathologies are less frequent. We also highlight the limitations and challenges of research in this area, including the difficulty of defining functional decline, a necessary component for a dementia diagnosis, the lack of normative neuropsychological data, and other shortcomings inherent in existing diagnostic criteria. In summary, our understanding of dementia in the oldest old has advanced dramatically in recent years, but more research is needed, particularly among varied racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups, and with respect to biomarkers such as neuroimaging, modifiable risk factors, and therapy.

Dementia in the oldest old: a multi-factorial and growing public health issue

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The population of oldest old, or people aged 85 and older, is growing rapidly. A better understanding of dementia in this population is thus of increasing national and global importance. In this review, we describe the major epidemiological studies, prevalence, clinical presentation, neuropathological and imaging features, risk factors, and treatment of dementia in the oldest old. Prevalence estimates for dementia among those aged 85+ ranges from 18 to 38%. The most common clinical syndromes are Alzheimer's dementia, vascular dementia, and mixed dementia from multiple etiologies. The rate of progression appears to be slower than in the younger old. Single neuropathological entities such as Alzheimer's dementia and Lewy body pathology appear to have declining relevance to cognitive decline, while mixed pathology with Alzheimer's disease, vascular disease (especially cortical microinfarcts), and hippocampal sclerosis appear to have increasing relevance. Neuroimaging data are sparse. Risk factors for dementia in the oldest old include a low level of education, poor mid-life general health, low level of physical activity, depression, and delirium, whereas apolipoprotein E genotype, late-life hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and elevated peripheral inflammatory markers appear to have less relevance. Treatment approaches require further study, but the oldest old may be more prone to negative side effects compared with younger patients and targeted therapies may be less efficacious since single pathologies are less frequent. We also highlight the limitations and challenges of research in this area, including the difficulty of defining functional decline, a necessary component for a dementia diagnosis, the lack of normative neuropsychological data, and other shortcomings inherent in existing diagnostic criteria. In summary, our understanding of dementia in the oldest old has advanced dramatically in recent years, but more research is needed, particularly among varied racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups, and with respect to biomarkers such as neuroimaging, modifiable risk factors, and therapy. PMID:23809176

Long-term patterns in Iberian hare population dynamics in a protected area (Doñana National Park) in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula: Effects of weather conditions and plant cover.

PubMed

Carro, Francisco; Soriguer, Ramón C

2017-01-01

The Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) is a widely distributed endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. To improve our knowledge of its population dynamics, the relative abundance and population trends of the Iberian hare were studied in the autumns of 1995-2012 in a protected area (Doñana National Park) by spotlighting in 2 different habitats: marshland and ecotones. The average relative abundance was 0.38 hare/km (SD = 0.63) in the marshland and 3.6 hares/km (SD = 4.09) in ecotones. The Iberian hare population exhibited local interannual fluctuations and a negative population trend during the study period (1995-2012). The results suggest that its populations are in decline. The flooding of parts of the marshland in June, July and October favor hare abundance in the ecotone. Hare abundance in the marshland increases as the flooded surface area increases in October. These effects are more pronounced if the rains are early (October) and partially flood the marsh. By contrast, when marsh grasses and graminoids are very high and thick (as measured using the aerial herbaceous biomass [biomass marshland] as a proxy), the abundance of hares decreases dramatically as does the area of the marsh that is flooded (in November). © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Extremely Low Genetic Diversity Indicating the Endangered Status of Ranodon sibiricus (Amphibia: Caudata) and Implications for Phylogeography

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiu-Ling; Sun, Jian-Yun; Xue, Yan; Zhang, Peng; Zhou, Hui; Qu, Liang-Hu

2012-01-01

Background The Siberian salamander (Ranodon sibiricus), distributed in geographically isolated areas of Central Asia, is an ideal alpine species for studies of conservation and phylogeography. However, there are few data regarding the genetic diversity in R. sibiricus populations. Methodology/Principal Findings We used two genetic markers (mtDNA and microsatellites) to survey all six populations of R. sibiricus in China. Both of the markers revealed extreme genetic uniformity among these populations. There were only three haplotypes in the mtDNA, and the overall nucleotide diversity in the mtDNA was 0.00064, ranging from 0.00000 to 0.00091 for the six populations. Although we recovered 70 sequences containing microsatellite repeats, there were only two loci that displayed polymorphism. We used the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method to study the demographic history of the populations. This analysis suggested that the extant populations diverged from the ancestral population approximately 120 years ago and that the historical population size was much larger than the present population size; i.e., R. sibiricus has experienced dramatic population declines. Conclusion/Significance Our findings suggest that the genetic diversity in the R. sibiricus populations is the lowest among all investigated amphibians. We conclude that the isolation of R. sibiricus populations occurred recently and was a result of recent human activity and/or climatic changes. The Pleistocene glaciation oscillations may have facilitated intraspecies genetic homogeneity rather than enhanced divergence. A low genomic evolutionary rate and elevated inbreeding frequency may have also contributed to the low genetic variation observed in this species. Our findings indicate the urgency of implementing a protection plan for this endangered species. PMID:22428037

Endless urban growth? On the mismatch of population, household and urban land area growth and its effects on the urban debate.

PubMed

Haase, Dagmar; Kabisch, Nadja; Haase, Annegret

2013-01-01

In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990-2000 and 2000-2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these "double-declining" cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number "automatically" solve the global problem of land consumption.

Full Mitogenomes in the Critically Endangered Kākāpō Reveal Major Post-Glacial and Anthropogenic Effects on Neutral Genetic Diversity.

PubMed

Dussex, Nicolas; von Seth, Johanna; Robertson, Bruce C; Dalén, Love

2018-04-19

Understanding how species respond to population declines is a central question in conservation and evolutionary biology. Population declines are often associated with loss of genetic diversity, inbreeding and accumulation of deleterious mutations, which can lead to a reduction in fitness and subsequently contribute to extinction. Using temporal approaches can help us understand the effects of population declines on genetic diversity in real time. Sequencing pre-decline as well as post-decline mitogenomes representing all the remaining mitochondrial diversity, we estimated the loss of genetic diversity in the critically endangered kākāpō ( Strigops habroptilus ). We detected a signal of population expansion coinciding with the end of the Pleistocene last glacial maximum (LGM). Also, we found some evidence for northern and southern lineages, supporting the hypothesis that the species may have been restricted to isolated northern and southern refugia during the LGM. We observed an important loss of neutral genetic diversity associated with European settlement in New Zealand but we could not exclude a population decline associated with Polynesian settlement in New Zealand. However, we did not find evidence for fixation of deleterious mutations. We argue that despite high pre-decline genetic diversity, a rapid and range-wide decline combined with the lek mating system, and life-history traits of kākāpō contributed to a rapid loss of genetic diversity following severe population declines.

Le Conte's sparrows breeding in Conservation Reserve Program fields: precipitation and patterns of population change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Igl, Lawrence D.; Johnson, Douglas H.

1999-01-01

The climate of the North American Great Plains is highly dynamic, with great year-to-year variability in precipitation and periodic, often extreme, wet and dry cycles (Bragg 1995). Drought is a major force of ecological disturbance on the Great Plains and has played a key role in directing the evolution of the grassland biota of this region (Knopf and Samson 1997). Although grassland birds may differ in their responses to enviromenental variations (Rotenberry and Wiens 1991), climatic variability and concomitant unpredictability of resources strongly influence populations of grassland birds across space and time (Wiens 1974, 1986; Cody 1985). Not surprisingly, breeding bird populations on the Great Plains are highly dynamic, exhibiting considerable annual variation in composition, abundance, and distribution (Johnson and Grier 1988, George et al. 1992, Zimmerman 1992, Igl and Johnson 1997). Recently, interest in grassland birds has increased with the recognition that many species are declining both continentally (Droege and Sauer 1994) and globally (Goriup 1988). Identification of the specific factors associated with grassland bird declines in North America, however, remains largely enigmatic (Herkert 1997), and it is complicated by the considerable annual fluctuations in grassland bird distribution and abundance (Igl and Johnson 1997). Although there is evidence that land-use changes on the breeding grounds may have contributed to grassland bird declines (e.g., Igl and Johnson 1997), there also is an indication that long-term drought conditions may have influenced recent population changes of some breeding birds on the Great Plains (Droege and Sauer 1989, Peterjohn and Sauer 1993, Bethke and Nudds 1995, Igl and Johnson 1997). Le Conte's Sparrow (Ammodramus leconteii) is a secretive grassland bird that breeds in central and southern Canada and the northcentral United States (Murray 1969). It winters primarily in the southern United States (Peterson 1980, 1990). Like populations of many grassland breeding birds in North America (Fretwell 1986, Igl and Johnson 1997), Le Conte's Sparrow populations exhibit numerical highs and lows depending on local moisture conditions (Peabody 1901, Stewart 1975, Knapton 1979, Zimmer 1979, Madden 1996). This observation, however, is based largely on anecdotal evidence or short-term observations. Long-term studies of Le Conte's Sparrow populations are limited. Le Conte's Sparrow is poorly represented on the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) because of small sample sizes, poor coverage in the northern portion of its breeding range, and the species' furtive behavior (Sauer et al. 1995). Moreover, dramatic fluctuations in Le Conte's Sparrow abundance tend to obscure the species' long-term population trends on the BBS (Sauer et al. 1995). In this paper we examine long-term population changes of Le Conte's Sparrows breeding in perennial grassland fields enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) on the northern Great Plains. We discuss patterns of population change of Le Conte's Sparrows associated with changes in precipitation and moisture conditions.

Physiological condition of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of the population cycle.

PubMed

Nieminen, Petteri; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Finnilä, Mikko A J; Voutilainen, Liina; Itämies, Juhani; Kärjä, Vesa; Saarela, Seppo; Halonen, Toivo; Aho, Jari; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

2015-09-01

The dynamics of animal populations are greatly influenced by interactions with their natural enemies and food resources. However, quantifying the relative effects of these factors on demographic rates remains a perpetual challenge for animal population ecology. Food scarcity is assumed to limit the growth and to initiate the decline of cyclic herbivore populations, but this has not been verified with physiological health indices. We hypothesized that individuals in declining populations would exhibit signs of malnutrition-induced deterioration of physiological condition. We evaluated the association of body condition with population cycle phase in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of a population cycle. The bank voles had lower body masses, condition indices and absolute masses of particular organs during the decline. Simultaneously, they had lower femoral masses, mineral contents and densities. Hemoglobin and hematocrit values and several parameters known to respond to food deprivation were unaffected by the population phase. There were no signs of lymphopenia, eosinophilia, granulocytosis or monocytosis. Erythrocyte counts were higher and plasma total protein levels and tissue proportions of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids lower in the population decline. Ectoparasite load was lower and adrenal gland masses or catecholamine concentrations did not suggest higher stress levels. Food availability seems to limit the size of voles during the decline but they can adapt to the prevailing conditions without clear deleterious health effects. This highlights the importance of quantifying individual health state when evaluating the effects of complex trophic interactions on the dynamics of wild animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

Treesearch

Thomas C. Marcin

1974-01-01

Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

Sea otter population declines in the Aleutian Archipelago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doroff, Angela M.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Burn, Douglas M.; Evans, Thomas J.

2003-01-01

Sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations were exploited to near extinction and began to recover after the cessation of commercial hunting in 1911. Remnant colonies of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago were among the first to recover; they continued to increase through the 1980s but declined abruptly during the 1990s. We conducted an aerial survey of the Aleutian archipelago in 2000 and compared results with similar surveys conducted in 1965 and 1992. The number of sea otters counted decreased by 75% between 1965 and 2000; 88% for islands at equilibrial density in 1965. The population decline likely began in the mid-1980s and declined at a rate of 17.5%/year in the 1990s. The minimal population estimate was 8,742 sea otters in 2000. The population declined to a uniformly low density in the archipelago, suggesting a common and geographically widespread cause. These data are in general agreement with the hypothesis of increased predation on sea otters. These data chronicle one of the most widespread and precipitous population declines for a mammalian carnivore in recorded history.

Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science.

PubMed

Teitelbaum, Michael S

2015-01-01

The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.

Power Generation for River and Tidal Generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muljadi, Eduard; Wright, Alan; Gevorgian, Vahan

Renewable energy sources are the second largest contributor to global electricity production, after fossil fuels. The integration of renewable energy continued to grow in 2014 against a backdrop of increasing global energy consumption and a dramatic decline in oil prices during the second half of the year. As renewable generation has become less expensive during recent decades, and it becomes more accepted by the global population, the focus on renewable generation has expanded from primarily wind and solar to include new types with promising future applications, such as hydropower generation, including river and tidal generation. Today, hydropower is considered onemore » of the most important renewable energy sources. In river and tidal generation, the input resource flow is slower but also steadier than it is in wind or solar generation, yet the level of water turbulent flow may vary from one place to another. This report focuses on hydrokinetic power conversion.« less

An exploration of China's mortality decline under Mao: A provincial analysis, 1950–80

PubMed Central

Babiarz, Kimberly Singer; Eggleston, Karen; Miller, Grant; Zhang, Qiong

2014-01-01

China's growth in life expectancy between 1950 and 1980 ranks as among the most rapid sustained increases in documented global history. However, no study of which we are aware has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of various explanations proposed for these gains. We create and analyse a new province-level panel data set spanning 1950-80 using historical information from Chinese public health archives, official provincial yearbooks, and infant and child mortality records contained in the 1988 National Survey of Fertility and Contraception. Although exploratory, our results suggest that increases in educational attainment and public health campaigns jointly explain 50-70 per cent of the dramatic reductions in infant and under-five mortality during our study period. These results are consistent with the importance of non-medical determinants of population health improvement – and under some circumstances, how general education may amplify the effectiveness of public health interventions. PMID:25495509

Multiple determinants of lifespan memory differences.

PubMed

Henson, Richard N; Campbell, Karen L; Davis, Simon W; Taylor, Jason R; Emery, Tina; Erzinclioglu, Sharon; Kievit, Rogier A

2016-09-07

Memory problems are among the most common complaints as people grow older. Using structural equation modeling of commensurate scores of anterograde memory from a large (N = 315), population-derived sample (www.cam-can.org), we provide evidence for three memory factors that are supported by distinct brain regions and show differential sensitivity to age. Associative memory and item memory are dramatically affected by age, even after adjusting for education level and fluid intelligence, whereas visual priming is not. Associative memory and item memory are differentially affected by emotional valence, and the age-related decline in associative memory is faster for negative than for positive or neutral stimuli. Gray-matter volume in the hippocampus, parahippocampus and fusiform cortex, and a white-matter index for the fornix, uncinate fasciculus and inferior longitudinal fasciculus, show differential contributions to the three memory factors. Together, these data demonstrate the extent to which differential ageing of the brain leads to differential patterns of memory loss.

High Fructose Diet inducing diabetes rapidly impacts olfactory epithelium and behavior in mice

PubMed Central

Rivière, Sébastien; Soubeyre, Vanessa; Jarriault, David; Molinas, Adrien; Léger-Charnay, Elise; Desmoulins, Lucie; Grebert, Denise; Meunier, Nicolas; Grosmaitre, Xavier

2016-01-01

Type 2 Diabetes (T2D), a major public health issue reaching worldwide epidemic, has been correlated with lower olfactory abilities in humans. As olfaction represents a major component of feeding behavior, its alteration may have drastic consequences on feeding behaviors that may in turn aggravates T2D. In order to decipher the impact of T2D on the olfactory epithelium, we fed mice with a high fructose diet (HFruD) inducing early diabetic state in 4 to 8 weeks. After only 4 weeks of this diet, mice exhibited a dramatic decrease in olfactory behavioral capacities. Consistently, this decline in olfactory behavior was correlated to decreased electrophysiological responses of olfactory neurons recorded as a population and individually. Our results demonstrate that, in rodents, olfaction is modified by HFruD-induced diabetes. Functional, anatomical and behavioral changes occurred in the olfactory system at a very early stage of the disease. PMID:27659313

Predicting the effects of copper on local population decline of 2 marine organisms, cobia fish and whiteleg shrimp, based on avoidance response.

PubMed

Araújo, Cristiano V M; Cedeño-Macías, Luís A; Vera-Vera, Victoria C; Salvatierra, David; Rodríguez, Elizabeth N V; Zambrano, Ufredo; Kuri, Samir

2016-02-01

The present study focuses on avoidance response to predict population decline of the marine fish Rachycentron canadum (cobia) and larvae of the estuarine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (whiteleg shrimp). Avoidance of approximately 60% was recorded for the cobia fry exposed to 1.0 mg Cu/L, 1.60 mg Cu/L, and 1.80 mg Cu/L. For the shrimp larvae, avoidance was approximately 80% for all Cu concentrations. The population decline of cobia fry was conditioned by avoidance in lower concentrations. However, in higher concentrations mortality begins to play an important role. The displacement toward uncontaminated habitats might determine shrimp population decline. A Cu-contaminated environment can determine the habitat selection of both species and, therefore, their local population decline. © 2015 SETAC.

The genetic structure of Nautilus pompilius populations surrounding Australia and the Philippines.

PubMed

Williams, Rachel C; Jackson, Benjamin C; Duvaux, Ludovic; Dawson, Deborah A; Burke, Terry; Sinclair, William

2015-07-01

Understanding the distribution of genetic diversity in exploited species is fundamental to successful conservation. Genetic structure and the degree of gene flow among populations must be assessed to design appropriate strategies to prevent the loss of distinct populations. The cephalopod Nautilus pompilius is fished unsustainably in the Philippines for the ornamental shell trade and has limited legislative protection, despite the species' recent dramatic decline in the region. Here, we use 14 microsatellite markers to evaluate the population structure of N. pompilius around Australia and the Philippines. Despite their relative geographical proximity, Great Barrier Reef individuals are genetically isolated from Osprey Reef and Shark Reef in the Coral Sea (FST  = 0.312, 0.229, respectively). Conversely, despite the larger geographical distances between the Philippines and west Australian reefs, samples display a small degree of genetic structure (FST  = 0.015). Demographic scenarios modelled using approximate Bayesian computation analysis indicate that this limited divergence is not due to contemporary gene flow between the Philippines and west Australia. Instead, present-day genetic similarity can be explained by very limited genetic drift that has occurred due to large average effective population sizes that persisted at both locations following their separation. The lack of connectivity among populations suggests that immigrants from west Australia would not facilitate natural recolonization if Philippine populations were fished to extinction. These data help to rectify the paucity of information on the species' biology currently inhibiting their conservation classification. Understanding population structure can allow us to facilitate sustainable harvesting, thereby preserving the diversity of genetically distinct stocks. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Worldwide status of burbot and conservation measures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, Martin A.; Paragamian, Vaughn L.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Jackson, James R.; Lappalainen, Jyrki; Evenson, Matthew J.; Neufeld, Matthew D.

2010-01-01

Although burbot (Lota lota Gadidae) are widespread and abundant throughout much of their natural range, there are many populations that have been extirpated, endangered or are in serious decline. Due in part to the species’ lack of popularity as a game and commercial fish, few regions consider burbot in management plans. We review the worldwide population status of burbot and synthesize reasons why some burbot populations are endangered or declining, some burbot populations have recovered and some burbot populations do not recover despite management measures. Burbot have been extirpated in much of Western Europe and the United Kingdom and are threatened or endangered in much of North America and Eurasia. Pollution and habitat change, particularly the effects of dams, appear to be the main causes for declines in riverine burbot populations. Pollution and the adverse effects of invasive species appear to be the main reasons for declines in lacustrine populations. Warmer water temperatures, due either to discharge from dams or climate change, have been noted in declining burbot populations at the southern extent of their range. Currently, fishing pressure does not appear to be limiting burbot populations world-wide. We suggest mitigation measures for burbot population recovery, particularly those impacted by dams and invasive species.

The Impact of Agribusiness on Rural Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Theobald, Paul

The dramatic growth of multinational agribusiness corporations has led to all types of rural decline--social, demographic, institutional, and environmental. Historically, rural inhabitants and rural land have been abused and neglected in the name of progress. Rural development efforts often attract small assembly or light manufacturing plants that…

Tenure Wild Cards

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zemsky, Robert

2008-01-01

The circumstances of tenure have changed and will likely continue to change, perhaps even dramatically. The proportion of university and college faculty members with full academic qualifications--which usually means those with earned doctorates--who either have tenure or are serving a probationary period for tenure has been declining steadily over…

Male Psychopaths and Their Criminal Careers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hare, Robert D.; And Others

1988-01-01

Examined criminal histories of male psychopaths and nonpsychopaths, exploring time in prison and conviction rates for five-year periods between ages of 16 and 45. Criminal activities of nonpsychopaths were relatively constant over years; activities of psychopaths remained high until around age 40, then declined dramatically. Results are consistent…

[Rural depopulation: 1954-1990].

PubMed

Chauvel, L

1994-10-01

"The purpose of this paper is to present evidence for a long term link between employment and population [in rural France]. A model is built in order to describe the interaction between employment, migration and natural population increase over 1962-1990. This shows how declining departments are bound within a vicious mechanism: while the decline of local employment leads to population outflow, the population decline contributes to a further employment fall." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?

PubMed

Hart, Christopher J; Kelly, Ryan P; Pearson, Scott F

2018-01-01

Tufted Puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines-particularly among southern breeding colonies-and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

Retrospective: Adjusting contaminant concentrations in bird eggs to account for moisture and lipid Loss during their incubation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rattner, Barnett A.; Wiemeyer, Stanley N.; Blus, Lawrence J.

2016-01-01

By the 1960s, research and monitoring efforts on chlorinated pesticide residues in tissues of wildlife were well underway in North America and Europe. Conservationists and natural resource managers were attempting to resolve whether pesticide exposure and accumulated residues were related to population declines in several species of predatory and scavenging birds (e.g., bald eagle Haliaeetus leucocephalus, peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus, brown pelican Pelecanus occidentalis and osprey Pandion haliaetus). The avian egg was a favored sampling matrix even before the realization that eggshell thinning was linked to population declines (Ratcliffe 1967; Hickey and Anderson 1968) and that the concentration of p,p’-DDE in an egg was associated with the shell thinning phenomenon (e.g., Blus et al. 1972; Wiemeyer et al. 1988). The necessity for making wet-weight concentration adjustments to account for natural moisture loss during incubation of viable eggs was realized. Correction for the more dramatic moisture loss in non-viable decaying eggs was recognized as being paramount. For example, the ∑DDT residues in osprey eggs were reported to vary by as much as eightfold without accounting for moisture loss adjustments (Stickel et al. 1965). In the absence of adjusting concentrations to the fresh wet-weight that was present at the time of egg laying, the uncorrected values exaggerated contaminant concentrations, yielding artifactual results and ultimately incorrect conclusions. The adjustment to fresh wet-weight concentration is equally important for many other persistent contaminants including PCBs, dioxins, furans, and brominated diphenyl ethers.

Sex-ratio, seasonality and long-term variation in maturation and spawning of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the German Bight (North Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, V.; Damm, U.; Neudecker, T.

2008-12-01

Aspects of the reproductive and maturation biology of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) were studied in various subareas of the German Bight (North Sea). The size-specific sex ratio of C. crangon was examined based on length frequency distribution data. The sex ratio for the smallest size groups at which sex was determined was typically around 0.5, indicating an even ratio between males and females. The proportion of females decreased in the 30-45 mm size range. In length classes larger than 50 mm, the proportion of females constantly increases to 100% at around 60 mm total length. We concluded that sex reversal from male to female may not occur in C. crangon. Size at sexual maturity was determined from the proportion of ovigerous females. Size at maturity ( L 50) was estimated as 55.4 and 62.0 mm total length for spring and winter data, respectively. The seasonal spawning cycle was studied over the period 1958-2005. Between mid February and late June and for size classes larger than 65 mm ovigerous shrimps exceeded 80% and reached up to 100% of the females in the population. This period can be seen as the core spawning season. From early August to early December the proportion of ovigerous shrimps in the female population is very low. Interannual differences in the seasonal process are obvious with a dramatic decline in C. crangon reproductive success in the late 1980s. Various options are discussed for the reasons of the decline and recovery of the reproductive performance.

Factors affecting nest survival of Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) in southern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Shawn M.; McKann, Patrick C.; Robb, Joseph R.; Lewis, Jason P.; Vanosdol, Teresa; Walker, Benjamin A.; Williams, Perry J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2016-01-01

Populations of Henslow’s Sparrows have declined dramatically in recent decades, coinciding with widespread loss of native grassland habitat. Prescribed burning is a primary tool for maintaining grassland patches, but its effects on nest survival of Henslow’s Sparrows remains largely unknown, especially in conjunction with other factors. We monitored 135 nests of Henslow’s Sparrows at Big Oaks National Wildlife Refuge in southern Indiana from 1998–2001 in an effort to understand factors influencing nest survival, including prescribed burning of habitat. We used a mixed-effects implementation of the logistic exposure model to predict daily nest survival in an information theoretic framework. We found that daily survival declined near the onset of hatching and increased with the height of standing dead vegetation, although this relationship was weak. We found only nominal support to suggest that time since burn influenced nest survival. Overall, nest age was the most important factor in estimating daily nest survival rates. Our daily survival estimate from our marginal model (0.937) was similar to that derived from the Mayfield method (0.944) suggesting that our results are comparable to previous studies using the Mayfield approach. Our results indicate that frequent burning to limit woody encroachment into grassland habitats might benefit Henslow’s Sparrow, but that a variety of factors ultimately influence daily nest survival. However, we note that burning too frequently can also limit occupancy by Henslow’s Sparrows. We suggest that additional research is needed to determine the population-level consequences of habitat alteration and if other extrinsic factors influence demographics of Henslow’s Sparrows.

West Nile Virus Infection in Ruffed Grouse ( Bonasa umbellus): Experimental Infection and Protective Effects of Vaccination.

PubMed

Nemeth, Nicole M; Bosco-Lauth, Angela M; Williams, Lisa M; Bowen, Richard A; Brown, Justin D

2017-11-01

Ruffed grouse ( Bonasa umbellus) population numbers in Pennsylvania dramatically declined during the early 2000s and have subsequently remained depressed throughout much of the state. While this decline has been temporally associated with the presence of West Nile virus (WNV), lack of information on the WNV susceptibility of this popular game bird species has limited the ability to interpret the potential impacts of WNV. To address this knowledge gap, virologic, immunologic, pathologic, and clinical responses as well as protective effects of vaccination following experimental WNV inoculation in ruffed grouse were assessed. Four of 10 (40%) naive, WNV-inoculated grouse succumbed to infection within 8 days and had moderate mean peak viremia titers (10 7.0 plaque-forming units [PFU]/ml serum); severe necrotizing myocarditis with widespread, corresponding immunohistochemical labeling; and minimal encephalitis. Grouse that survived to the prescribed end point of 14 days postinoculation (6/10; 60%) had slightly lower mean peak viremia titers (10 6.8 PFU/ml serum), moderate myocardial lesions, and more widespread brain lesions with rare corresponding immunohistochemical labeling. Vaccinated, WNV-inoculated birds ( n = 5) had lower mean peak viremia titers (10 3.6 PFU/ml serum) and minimal lesions, and sham-inoculated, in-contact control birds ( n = 3) had no evidence of infection. All surviving, inoculated birds seroconverted, and WNV-specific antibodies were detectable in serum and Nobuto filter paper strip-eluted blood samples. These data suggest that WNV could serve as an additional population pressure on ruffed grouse in regions where transmission levels are high and WNV competent, ornithophilic vectors exist.

Skeletal muscle performance and ageing

PubMed Central

Trouwborst, Inez; Clark, Brian C.

2017-01-01

Abstract The world population is ageing rapidly. As society ages, the incidence of physical limitations is dramatically increasing, which reduces the quality of life and increases healthcare expenditures. In western society, ~30% of the population over 55 years is confronted with moderate or severe physical limitations. These physical limitations increase the risk of falls, institutionalization, co‐morbidity, and premature death. An important cause of physical limitations is the age‐related loss of skeletal muscle mass, also referred to as sarcopenia. Emerging evidence, however, clearly shows that the decline in skeletal muscle mass is not the sole contributor to the decline in physical performance. For instance, the loss of muscle strength is also a strong contributor to reduced physical performance in the elderly. In addition, there is ample data to suggest that motor coordination, excitation–contraction coupling, skeletal integrity, and other factors related to the nervous, muscular, and skeletal systems are critically important for physical performance in the elderly. To better understand the loss of skeletal muscle performance with ageing, we aim to provide a broad overview on the underlying mechanisms associated with elderly skeletal muscle performance. We start with a system level discussion and continue with a discussion on the influence of lifestyle, biological, and psychosocial factors on elderly skeletal muscle performance. Developing a broad understanding of the many factors affecting elderly skeletal muscle performance has major implications for scientists, clinicians, and health professionals who are developing therapeutic interventions aiming to enhance muscle function and/or prevent mobility and physical limitations and, as such, support healthy ageing. PMID:29151281

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

PubMed

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Beyond the disease: Is Toxoplasma gondii infection causing population declines in the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus)?

PubMed Central

Fancourt, Bronwyn A.; Nicol, Stewart C.; Hawkins, Clare E.; Jones, Menna E.; Johnson, Chris N.

2014-01-01

Disease is often considered a key threat to species of conservation significance. For some, it has resulted in localised extinctions and declines in range and abundance. However, for some species, the assertion that a disease poses a significant threat of extinction is based solely on correlative or anecdotal evidence, often inferred from individual clinical case reports. While a species’ susceptibility to a disease may be demonstrated in a number of individuals, investigations rarely extend to measuring the impact of disease at the population level and its contribution, if any, to population declines. The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that is undergoing severe and rapid decline in Tasmania, its last refuge. Reasons for the decline are currently not understood. Feral cats (Felis catus) may be undergoing competitive release following the ongoing decline of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), with cats suppressing eastern quolls through increased predation, competition, exclusion or exposure to diseases such as toxoplasmosis. To investigate the effects of Toxoplasma gondii infection, eastern quoll populations at four sites were regularly screened for the seroprevalence of T. gondii-specific IgG antibodies. Seroprevalence was approximately five times higher at sites with declining quoll populations, and there was a negative association between seroprevalence and quoll abundance. However, T. gondii infection did not reduce quoll survival or reproduction. Despite a high susceptibility to T. gondii infection, eastern quoll populations do not appear to be limited by the parasite or its resultant disease. Significantly higher seroprevalence is a signal of greater exposure to feral cats at sites where eastern quolls are declining, suggesting that increased predation, competition or exclusion by feral cats may be precipitating population declines. PMID:25161908

Presence of the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in threatened corroboree frog populations in the Australian Alps.

PubMed

Hunter, David A; Speare, Rick; Marantelli, Gerry; Mendez, Diana; Pietsch, Rod; Osborne, Will

2010-11-01

Since the early 1980s, the southern corroboree frog Pseudophryne corroboree and northern corroboree frog P. pengilleyi have been in a state of decline from their sub-alpine and high montane bog environments on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. To date, there has been no adequate explanation as to what is causing the decline of these species. We investigated the possibility that a pathogen associated with other recent frog declines in Australia, the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, may have been implicated in the decline of the corroboree frogs. We used histology of toe material and real-time PCR of skin swabs to investigate the presence and infection rates with B. dendrobatidis in historic and extant populations of both corroboree frog species. Using histology, we did not detect any B. dendrobatidis infections in corroboree frog populations prior to their decline. However, using the same technique, high rates of infection were observed in populations of both species after the onset of substantial population declines. The real-time PCR screening of skin swabs identified high overall infection rates in extant populations of P. corroboree (between 44 and 59%), while significantly lower rates of infection were observed in low-altitude P. pengilleyi populations (14%). These results suggest that the initial and continued decline of the corroboree frogs may well be attributed to the emergence of B. dendrobatidis in populations of these species.

Cognitive performance on the mini-mental state examination and the montreal cognitive assessment across the healthy adult lifespan.

PubMed

Gluhm, Shea; Goldstein, Jody; Loc, Kiet; Colt, Alexandra; Liew, Charles Van; Corey-Bloom, Jody

2013-03-01

We sought to compare age-related performance on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) across the adult lifespan in an asymptomatic, presumably normal, sample. The MMSE is the most commonly used brief cognitive screening test; however, the MoCA may be better at detecting early cognitive dysfunction. We gave the MMSE and MoCA to 254 community-dwelling participants ranging in age from 20 to 89, stratified by decade, and we compared their scores using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. For the total sample, the MMSE and MoCA differed significantly in total scores as well as in visuospatial, language, and memory domains (for all of these scores, P<0.001). Mean MMSE scores declined only modestly across the decades; mean MoCA scores declined more dramatically. There were no consistent domain differences between the MMSE and MoCA during the third and fourth decades; however, significant differences in memory (P<0.05) and language (P<0.001) emerged in the fifth through ninth decades. We conclude that the MoCA may be a better detector of age-related decrements in cognitive performance than the MMSE, as shown in this community-dwelling adult population.

Stress-induced suppression of testosterone secretion in male alligators.

PubMed

Lance, V A; Elsey, R M

1986-08-01

In order to test the effect of acute stress on gonadal hormone secretion in reptiles, six mature male alligators were captured, and a blood sample was taken within 5 min of capture. Additional blood samples were taken at timed intervals for up to 41 hr, and plasma testosterone and corticosterone were measured by radioimmunoassay. Plasma testosterone declined to 50% of the initial value by 4 hr and dropped to less than 10% of initial by 24 hr. Plasma corticosterone increased during the first 12 hr, declined at 24 hr, and rose again at 40 hr. Blood samples from male alligators collected in North and South Carolina, south Florida, and in south Louisiana in two consecutive breeding seasons were also assayed for testosterone and corticosterone. In these populations there were significant differences in mean plasma testosterone and corticosterone levels. Elevated corticosterone levels were consistently seen in alligators caught in traps and from which a blood sample was taken several hours later. Plasma testosterone, although consistently lower in trapped alligators, did not show a negative correlation with plasma corticosterone. Farm-reared alligators bled once, released, and bled again at 24 hr also showed a highly significant suppression of testosterone secretion. These results demonstrate that stress has a rapid and dramatic effect on testicular steroid secretion in both farm-reared and wild alligators.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2015-12-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The symposium in context

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biggins, Dean E.

2006-01-01

The black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) is a member of the weasel family (Mustelidae) and is closely related to the Siberian polecat (M. eversmannii) of Asian steppes and the European polecat (M. putorius). Compared to its relatives, the black-footed ferret is an extreme specialist, depending on the prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) of North American grasslands for food and using prairie dog burrows for shelter. The black-footed ferret’s close association with prairie dogs was an important factor in its decline. Prairie dogs were regarded as an agricultural pest as human settlement progressed westward, and they became important hosts for plague as that disease colonized eastward from its sources of introduction on the west coast. Prairie dog numbers were dramatically reduced by poisoning, cropland conversions, and plague during the first half of the 20th century, and black-footed ferret populations declined precipitously. The black-footed ferret was included on the first lists of endangered species, and its status was precarious by the time the Endangered Species Act of 1973 was passed. Its rebound from a low point of 10 known individuals in spring of 1985 (Biggins and others, 2006) is impressive, but the species is not yet “recovered” in either the biological or legal sense (for further details, see Lockhart and others, this volume).

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Declining brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity

Treesearch

W. Andrew Cox; Frank R., III Thompson; Brian Root; John Faaborg; Csaba Moskat

2012-01-01

Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce...

Microsatellite Analysis of Museum Specimens Reveals Historical Differences in Genetic Diversity between Declining and More Stable Bombus Species

PubMed Central

Maebe, Kevin; Meeus, Ivan; Ganne, Maarten; De Meulemeester, Thibaut; Biesmeijer, Koos; Smagghe, Guy

2015-01-01

Worldwide most pollinators, e.g. bumblebees, are undergoing global declines. Loss of genetic diversity can play an essential role in these observed declines. In this paper, we investigated the level of genetic diversity of seven declining Bombus species and four more stable species with the use of microsatellite loci. Hereto we genotyped a unique collection of museum specimens. Specimens were collected between 1918 and 1926, in 6 provinces of the Netherlands which allowed us to make interspecific comparisons of genetic diversity. For the stable species B. pascuorum, we also selected populations from two additional time periods: 1949–1955 and 1975–1990. The genetic diversity and population structure in B. pascuorum remained constant over the three time periods. However, populations of declining bumblebee species showed a significantly lower genetic diversity than co-occurring stable species before their major declines. This historical difference indicates that the repeatedly observed reduced genetic diversity in recent populations of declining bumblebee species is not caused solely by the decline itself. The historically low genetic diversity in the declined species may be due to the fact that these species were already rare, making them more vulnerable to the major drivers of bumblebee decline. PMID:26061732

A look at Asia's changing youth population.

PubMed

Xenos, P; Kabamalan, M; Westley, S B

1999-01-01

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.

Social activity, cognitive decline and dementia risk: a 20-year prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Marioni, Riccardo E; Proust-Lima, Cecile; Amieva, Helene; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Dartigues, Jean-Francois; Jacqmin-Gadda, Helene

2015-10-24

Identifying modifiable lifestyle correlates of cognitive decline and risk of dementia is complex, particularly as few population-based longitudinal studies jointly model these interlinked processes. Recent methodological developments allow us to examine statistically defined sub-populations with separate cognitive trajectories and dementia risks. Engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits, social network size, self-perception of feeling well understood, and degree of satisfaction with social relationships were assessed in 2854 participants from the Paquid cohort (mean baseline age 77 years) and related to incident dementia and cognitive change over 20-years of follow-up. Multivariate repeated cognitive information was exploited by defining the global cognitive functioning as the latent common factor underlying the tests. In addition, three latent homogeneous sub-populations of cognitive change and dementia were identified and contrasted according to social environment variables. In the whole population, we found associations between increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits and increased cognitive ability (but not decline) and decreased risk of incident dementia, and between feeling understood and slower cognitive decline. There was evidence for three sub-populations of cognitive aging: fast, medium, and no cognitive decline. The social-environment measures at baseline did not help explain the heterogeneity of cognitive decline and incident dementia diagnosis between these sub-populations. We observed a complex series of relationships between social-environment variables and cognitive decline and dementia. In the whole population, factors such as increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits were related to a decreased risk of dementia. However, in a sub-population analysis, the social-environment variables were not linked to the heterogeneous patterns of cognitive decline and dementia risk that defined the sub-groups.

Variations in the Arctic's multiyear sea ice cover: A neural network analysis of SMMR-SSM/I data, 1979-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belchansky, G.I.; Douglas, David C.; Eremeev, V.A.; Platonov, Nikita G.

2005-01-01

A 26-year (1979-2004) observational record of January multiyear sea ice distributions, derived from neural network analysis of SMMR-SSM/I passive microwave satellite data, reveals dense and persistent cover in the central Arctic basin surrounded by expansive regions of highly fluctuating interannual cover. Following a decade of quasi equilibrium, precipitous declines in multiyear ice area commenced in 1989 when the Arctic Oscillation shifted to a pronounced positive phase. Although extensive survival of first-year ice during autumn 1996 fully replenished the area of multiyear ice, a subsequent and accelerated decline returned the depletion to record lows. The most dramatic multiyear sea ice declines occurred in the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas.

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

Worldwide patterns of genomic variation and admixture in gray wolves.

PubMed

Fan, Zhenxin; Silva, Pedro; Gronau, Ilan; Wang, Shuoguo; Armero, Aitor Serres; Schweizer, Rena M; Ramirez, Oscar; Pollinger, John; Galaverni, Marco; Ortega Del-Vecchyo, Diego; Du, Lianming; Zhang, Wenping; Zhang, Zhihe; Xing, Jinchuan; Vilà, Carles; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Godinho, Raquel; Yue, Bisong; Wayne, Robert K

2016-02-01

The gray wolf (Canis lupus) is a widely distributed top predator and ancestor of the domestic dog. To address questions about wolf relationships to each other and dogs, we assembled and analyzed a data set of 34 canine genomes. The divergence between New and Old World wolves is the earliest branching event and is followed by the divergence of Old World wolves and dogs, confirming that the dog was domesticated in the Old World. However, no single wolf population is more closely related to dogs, supporting the hypothesis that dogs were derived from an extinct wolf population. All extant wolves have a surprisingly recent common ancestry and experienced a dramatic population decline beginning at least ∼30 thousand years ago (kya). We suggest this crisis was related to the colonization of Eurasia by modern human hunter-gatherers, who competed with wolves for limited prey but also domesticated them, leading to a compensatory population expansion of dogs. We found extensive admixture between dogs and wolves, with up to 25% of Eurasian wolf genomes showing signs of dog ancestry. Dogs have influenced the recent history of wolves through admixture and vice versa, potentially enhancing adaptation. Simple scenarios of dog domestication are confounded by admixture, and studies that do not take admixture into account with specific demographic models are problematic. © 2016 Fan et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Population changes in bats from central Arizona: 1972 and 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Vaughan, T.A.

1999-01-01

Prompted by concern about declining bat populations in the southwestern United States, we surveyed for changes in populations between 1972 and 1997 at a study area in central Arizona. We duplicated earlier searches of ancient Indian dwellings and crevices in surrounding cliffs for diurnally roosting bats during the time of year when maternity colonies should have been present, and repeated mist-netting to capture bats in flight along the cliffs at night. Antrozous pallidus was gone. A maternity colony of Myotis velifer no longer existed. Tadarida brasiliensis was rare in 1997 compared to 1972; aggregations of Myotis yumanensis seen in 1972 were missing in 1997. Breeding Corynorhinus townsendii were found in 1997, but were unknown at this location in 1972. Small numbers of Eptesicus fuscus, Myotis californicus, and Pipistrellus hesperus occupied the site in both 1972 and 1997. Additionally, museum records show that most of the bats we documented at this site also were present in 1931. Surrounding habitat did not appear substantially different between 1972 and 1997, and a reconstruction of possible impacts from bat biologists did not suggest that researchers caused the local extinctions we document. The most obvious change over 25 years was a dramatic increase in recreational use of the area. We believe that disturbances associated with recreationists resulted in the observed population changes, primarily through roost abandonment.

Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

2009-09-01

Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Uganda's HIV Prevention Success: The Role of Sexual Behavior Change and the National Response

PubMed Central

Green, Edward C.; Nantulya, Vinand; Hogle, Janice A.

2006-01-01

There has been considerable interest in understanding what may have led to Uganda's dramatic decline in HIV prevalence, one of the world's earliest and most compelling AIDS prevention successes. Survey and other data suggest that a decline in multi-partner sexual behavior is the behavioral change most likely associated with HIV decline. It appears that behavior change programs, particularly involving extensive promotion of “zero grazing” (faithfulness and partner reduction), largely developed by the Ugandan government and local NGOs including faith-based, women’s, people-living-with-AIDS and other community-based groups, contributed to the early declines in casual/multiple sexual partnerships and HIV incidence and, along with other factors including condom use, to the subsequent sharp decline in HIV prevalence. Yet the debate over “what happened in Uganda” continues, often involving divisive abstinence-versus-condoms rhetoric, which appears more related to the culture wars in the USA than to African social reality. PMID:16688475

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Response of rocky reef top predators (Serranidae: Epinephelinae) in and around marine protected areas in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

PubMed

Hackradt, Carlos Werner; García-Charton, José Antonio; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Pérez-Ruzafa, Ángel; Le Diréach, Laurence; Bayle-Sempere, Just; Charbonnel, Eric; Ody, Denis; Reñones, Olga; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Valle, Carlos

2014-01-01

Groupers species are extremely vulnerable to overfishing and many species are threatened worldwide. In recent decades, Mediterranean groupers experienced dramatic population declines. Marine protected areas (MPAs) can protect populations inside their boundaries and provide individuals to adjacent fishing areas through the process of spillover and larval export. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of six marine reserves in the Western Mediterranean Sea to protect the populations of three species of grouper, Epinephelus marginatus, Epinephelus costae and Mycteroperca rubra, and to understand in which circumstances MPAs are able to export biomass to neighbouring areas. All the studied MPAs, except one where no grouper was observed, were able to maintain high abundance, biomass and mean weight of groupers. Size classes were more evenly distributed inside than outside MPAs. In two reserves, biomass gradients could be detected through the boundaries of the reserve as an indication of spillover. In some cases, habitat structure appeared to exert a great influence on grouper abundance, biomass and mean individual weight, influencing the gradient shape. Because groupers are generally sedentary animals with a small home range, we suggest that biomass gradients could only occur where groupers attain sufficient abundance inside MPA limits, indicating a strongly density-dependent process.

Collapse of cooperation in evolving games.

PubMed

Stewart, Alexander J; Plotkin, Joshua B

2014-12-09

Game theory provides a quantitative framework for analyzing the behavior of rational agents. The Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma in particular has become a standard model for studying cooperation and cheating, with cooperation often emerging as a robust outcome in evolving populations. Here we extend evolutionary game theory by allowing players' payoffs as well as their strategies to evolve in response to selection on heritable mutations. In nature, many organisms engage in mutually beneficial interactions and individuals may seek to change the ratio of risk to reward for cooperation by altering the resources they commit to cooperative interactions. To study this, we construct a general framework for the coevolution of strategies and payoffs in arbitrary iterated games. We show that, when there is a tradeoff between the benefits and costs of cooperation, coevolution often leads to a dramatic loss of cooperation in the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. The collapse of cooperation is so extreme that the average payoff in a population can decline even as the potential reward for mutual cooperation increases. Depending upon the form of tradeoffs, evolution may even move away from the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game altogether. Our work offers a new perspective on the Prisoner's Dilemma and its predictions for cooperation in natural populations; and it provides a general framework to understand the coevolution of strategies and payoffs in iterated interactions.

Re-shifting the ecological baseline for the overexploited Mediterranean red coral

PubMed Central

Garrabou, J.; Sala, E.; Linares, C.; Ledoux, J. B.; Montero-Serra, I.; Dominici, J. M.; Kipson, S.; Teixidó, N.; Cebrian, E.; Kersting, D. K.; Harmelin, J. G.

2017-01-01

Overexploitation leads to the ecological extinction of many oceanic species. The depletion of historical abundances of large animals, such as whales and sea turtles, is well known. However, the magnitude of the historical overfishing of exploited invertebrates is unclear. The lack of rigorous baseline data limits the implementation of efficient management and conservation plans in the marine realm. The precious Mediterranean red coral Corallium rubrum has been intensively exploited since antiquity for its use in jewellery. It shows dramatic signs of overexploitation, with no untouched populations known in shallow waters. Here, we report the discovery of an exceptional red coral population from a previously unexplored shallow underwater cave in Corsica (France) harbouring the largest biomass (by more than 100-fold) reported to date in the Mediterranean. Our findings challenge current assumptions on the pristine state of this emblematic species. Our results suggest that, before intense exploitation, red coral lived in relatively high-density populations with a large proportion of centuries-old colonies, even at very shallow depths. We call for the re-evaluation of the baseline for red coral and question the sustainability of the exploitation of a species that is still common but ecologically (functionally) extinct and in a trajectory of further decline. PMID:28198382

Response of Rocky Reef Top Predators (Serranidae: Epinephelinae) in and Around Marine Protected Areas in the Western Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Hackradt, Carlos Werner; García-Charton, José Antonio; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Pérez-Ruzafa, Ángel; Le Diréach, Laurence; Bayle-Sempere, Just; Charbonnel, Eric; Ody, Denis; Reñones, Olga; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Valle, Carlos

2014-01-01

Groupers species are extremely vulnerable to overfishing and many species are threatened worldwide. In recent decades, Mediterranean groupers experienced dramatic population declines. Marine protected areas (MPAs) can protect populations inside their boundaries and provide individuals to adjacent fishing areas through the process of spillover and larval export. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of six marine reserves in the Western Mediterranean Sea to protect the populations of three species of grouper, Epinephelus marginatus, Epinephelus costae and Mycteroperca rubra, and to understand in which circumstances MPAs are able to export biomass to neighbouring areas. All the studied MPAs, except one where no grouper was observed, were able to maintain high abundance, biomass and mean weight of groupers. Size classes were more evenly distributed inside than outside MPAs. In two reserves, biomass gradients could be detected through the boundaries of the reserve as an indication of spillover. In some cases, habitat structure appeared to exert a great influence on grouper abundance, biomass and mean individual weight, influencing the gradient shape. Because groupers are generally sedentary animals with a small home range, we suggest that biomass gradients could only occur where groupers attain sufficient abundance inside MPA limits, indicating a strongly density-dependent process. PMID:24905331

The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change

PubMed Central

Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M.

2012-01-01

A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations. PMID:22623955

The human footprint in the west: a large-scale analysis of human impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leu, Matthias

2003-01-01

Background Humans have dramatically altered wildlands in the western United States over the past 100 years by using these lands and the resources they provide. Anthropogenic changes to the landscape, such as urban expansion and development of rural areas, influence the number and kinds of plants and wildlife that remain. In addition, western ecosystems are also affected by roads, powerlines, and other networks and land uses necessary to maintain human populations. The cumulative impacts of human presence and actions on a landscape are called the "human footprint." These impacts may affect plants and wildlife by increasing the number of synanthropic (species that benefit from human activities) bird and mammal predators and facilitating their movements through the landscape or by creating unsuitable habitats. These actions can impact plants and wildlife to such an extent that the persistence of populations or entire species is questionable. For example, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) once were widespread throughout the Great Basin, but now are a focus of conservation concern because populations have declined for the past three decades across most of their range. At the USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, we are developing spatial models to better understand potential influences of the human footprint on shrubland ecosystems and associated wildlife in the western United States.

Developmental Reversals in False Memory: A Review of Data and Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brainerd, C. J.; Reyna V. F.; Ceci, S. J.

2008-01-01

Can susceptibility to false memory and suggestion increase dramatically with age? The authors review the theoretical and empirical literatures on this counterintuitive possibility. Until recently, the well-documented pattern was that susceptibility to memory distortion had been found to decline between early childhood and young adulthood. That…

The Expansion of Dreissena and Long-term Shifts in Benthic Macroinvertebrate Community Structure in Lake Ontario, 1998-2008

EPA Science Inventory

The introduction of Dreissena to the Great lakes has profoundly impacted benthic ecosystems, resulting in the decline of native species and dramatic community restructuring. In Lake Ontario, long-term monitoring has yielded a wealth of detailed information regarding both the exp...

The Impact of the Bologna Process on Academic Staff in Ukraine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Marta A.; Chapman, David W.; Rumyantseva, Nataliya L.

2012-01-01

Academic staff in Ukraine face a convergence of institutional and professional pressures precipitated by a national economic crisis, projected declines in enrolment and dramatic changes to institutional procedures as institutions implement the Bologna Process. This article examines the extent to which these pressures are reshaping the way academic…

Designing a Network and Systems Computing Curriculum: The Stakeholders and the Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tan, Grace; Venables, Anne

2010-01-01

Since 2001, there has been a dramatic decline in Information Technology and Computer Science student enrolments worldwide. As a consequence, many institutions have evaluated their offerings and revamped their programs to include units designed to capture students' interests and increase subsequent enrolment. Likewise, at Victoria University the…

Becoming-Speckled Warbler: Re/Creating Australian Natural History Pedagogy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Alistair

2011-01-01

The speckled warbler and other woodland birds of south-eastern Australia have declined dramatically since European settlement; many species are at risk of becoming locally and/or nationally extinct. Coincidently, Australian environmental education research of the last decade has largely been silent on the development of pedagogy that reflects the…

Physical Activity Attitudes, Preferences, and Practices in African American, Hispanic, and Caucasian Girls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grieser, Mira; Vu, Maihan B.; Bedimo-Rung, Ariane L.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Moody, Jamie; Young, Deborah Rohm; Moe, Stacey G.

2006-01-01

Physical activity levels in girls decline dramatically during adolescence, most profoundly among minorities. To explore ethnic and racial variation in attitudes toward physical activity, semistructured interviews (n = 80) and physical activity checklists (n = 130) are conducted with African American, Hispanic, and Caucasian middle school girls in…

The Challenge of Computers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leger, Guy

Computers may change teachers' lifestyles, teaching styles, and perhaps even their personal values. A brief survey of the history of computers demonstrates the incredible pace at which computer technology is moving ahead. The cost and size of microchips will continue to decline dramatically over the next 20 years, while the capability and variety…

PACIFIC SALMON FISHERIES OF THE WORLD: STATUS, PROSPECTS, AND CHALLENGES

EPA Science Inventory

All seven species of Pacific salmon on both sides of the North Pacific have declined significantly from historic levels, but not as dramatically as have Atlantic salmon. Hatchery production has been used to maintain some runs in the southern region of the range (e.g., Japan, Kor...

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

PubMed

Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J

2016-01-01

Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small-to-moderate declines or increases in paired territory numbers due to uncertainty in our estimates. Collectively, we conclude spotted owl pair populations on this landscape managed for commercial timber production appear to be more stable and do not show sharp year-over-year declines seen in both managed and unmanaged landscapes with substantial barred owl colonization and persistence. Continued monitoring of reproductive territories can determine whether recent declines continue or whether trends reverse as they have on four previous occasions. Experimental investigations to evaluate changes to spotted owl occupancy dynamics when barred owl populations are reduced or removed entirely can confirm the generality of this conclusion.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Spatial and overwinter changes in clam populations of San Pablo Bay, a semiarid estuary with highly variable freshwater inflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poulton, V.K.; Lovvorn, J.R.; Takekawa, John Y.

2004-01-01

In many estuaries worldwide, climate trends together with human diversion of fresh water have dramatically impacted the benthos. Such impacts have sometimes been complicated by exotic species, whose invasion and persistence can be mediated by wide variations in freshwater inflow. Monitoring such changes usually involves periodic samples at a few sites; but sampling that does not recognize variation at a range of spatial and seasonal scales may not reveal important benthic trends. San Pablo Bay, in northern San Francisco Bay, has extreme fluctuations in freshwater inflow. This bay also experienced a major benthic change with introduction of the Asian clam (Potamocorbula amurensis) in 1986. This species initially displaced the former community, but later appeared to vary in abundance depending on site and freshwater inflow. To investigate such patterns and provide guidelines for research and monitoring, we took 1746 core samples at six sites around San Pablo Bay from 19 October to 17 December 1999 and from 6 March to 19 April 2000. Most biomass consisted of the clams P. amurensis,Macoma balthica and Mya arenaria. Potamocorbula amurensis dominated the benthos at most sites in the fall and recruited a new cohort during winter, while there was weak recruitment in M. balthica and none in M. arenaria. At most but not all sites, densities of P. amurensis and M. arenaria declined dramatically over winter while M. balthica declined only slightly. The dominant clams had patch diameters >5 m at most but not all sites, and some showed inconsistent patch structure at scales of 100–1400 m. In this semiarid estuary with highly variable freshwater inflow, samples for research and monitoring should include multiple sites and seasons, and samples within sites should be ≥5 m apart to account for between-patch variation. Species abundance in winter 1999–2000 appeared to be affected by high freshwater inflows in 1997–1999, while spatial patterns were probably most affected by post-settlement dispersal and mortality.

Inferring Genetic Variation and Demographic History of Michelia yunnanensis Franch. (Magnoliaceae) from Chloroplast DNA Sequences and Microsatellite Markers

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xue; Shen, Shikang; Wu, Fuqin; Wang, Yuehua

2017-01-01

Michelia yunnanensis Franch., is a traditional ornamental, aromatic, and medicinal shrub that endemic to Yunnan Province in southwest China. Although the species has a large distribution pattern and is abundant in Yunnan Province, the populations are dramatically declining because of overexploitation and habitat destruction. Studies on the genetic variation and demography of endemic species are necessary to develop effective conservation and management strategies. To generate such knowledge, we used 3 pairs of universal cpDNA markers and 10 pairs of microsatellite markers to assess the genetic diversity, genetic structure, and demographic history of 7 M. yunnanensis populations. We calculated a total of 88 alleles for 10 polymorphic loci and 10 haplotypes for a combined 2,089 bp of cpDNA. M. yunnanensis populations showed high genetic diversity (Ho = 0.551 for nuclear markers and Hd = 0.471 for cpDNA markers) and low genetic differentiation (FST = 0.058). Geographical structure was not found among M. yunnanensis populations. Genetic distance and geographic distance were not correlated (P > 0.05), which indicated that geographic isolation is not the primary cause of the low genetic differentiation of M. yunnanensis. Additionally, M. yunnanensis populations contracted ~20,000–30,000 years ago, and no recent expansion occurred in current populations. Results indicated that the high genetic diversity of the species and within its populations holds promise for effective genetic resource management and sustainable utilization. Thus, we suggest that the conservation and management of M. yunnanensis should address exotic overexploitation and habitat destruction. PMID:28484472

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues

PubMed Central

Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2017-01-01

Abstract Although all nations in the America’s face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico’s population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world’s eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the “demographic dividend” of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. PMID:27927730

Molecular insights into the historic demography of bowhead whales: understanding the evolutionary basis of contemporary management practices

PubMed Central

Phillips, C D; Hoffman, J I; George, J C; Suydam, R S; Huebinger, R M; Patton, J C; Bickham, J W

2013-01-01

Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi-marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long-term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography. PMID:23403722

Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

2003-01-01

Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

The emerging role of dietary fructose in obesity and cognitive decline

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The incidence of obesity has increased dramatically over the past several years, and in parallel, so has the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Numerous studies have demonstrated that both obesity and T2D are associated with lower cognitive performance, cognitive decline, and dementia. Intake of dietary fructose has also increased. In fact, high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) accounts for as much as 40% of caloric sweeteners used in the United States. Given the increase in the incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), characterized by an age-related decline in memory and cognitive functioning, in this report we review the effects of obesity on cognitive performance and the impact of high fructose intake in promoting cognitive decline. The paper then considers the effects of omega-3 fatty acids (FAs), which have been linked to promising results in cognitive function including ameliorating the impact of a high-fructose diet. PMID:23924506

The emerging role of dietary fructose in obesity and cognitive decline.

PubMed

Lakhan, Shaheen E; Kirchgessner, Annette

2013-08-08

The incidence of obesity has increased dramatically over the past several years, and in parallel, so has the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Numerous studies have demonstrated that both obesity and T2D are associated with lower cognitive performance, cognitive decline, and dementia. Intake of dietary fructose has also increased. In fact, high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) accounts for as much as 40% of caloric sweeteners used in the United States. Given the increase in the incidence of Alzheimer's disease (AD), characterized by an age-related decline in memory and cognitive functioning, in this report we review the effects of obesity on cognitive performance and the impact of high fructose intake in promoting cognitive decline. The paper then considers the effects of omega-3 fatty acids (FAs), which have been linked to promising results in cognitive function including ameliorating the impact of a high-fructose diet.

Erythrocyte enzymes in sheep: comparison of activity in fetal, newborn, maternal and nonpregnant ewe erythrocytes.

PubMed

Noble, N A; Cabalum, T C; Nathanielsz, P W; Tanaka, K R

1982-01-01

Hematological data and the activities of 21 red cell enzymes were measured in 8 nonpregnant ewes, 13 chronically catheterized fetuses at 125-135 days of gestation, and 8 of their mothers. In addition, 7 lambs were followed from birth to 17 days of age. Fetal sheep red cells have dramatically increased activities for 17 of 21 enzymes measured compared with adult nonpregnant ewes. The pattern of decline of enzyme activities with development varies considerably among enzymes. The activity of seven enzymes showed an orderly decline from fetal to adult life. For seven enzymes very little or no decline in activity was observed between 125 and 135 days of gestation and birth. Pyruvate kinase activity declined to adult levels by birth. Phosphoglucose isomerase and nucleoside phosphorylase activity increased, and glutathione peroxidase activity decreased in newborn lamb red cells compared to fetal cells. Differences in blood cell variables were also found among these groups.

Sweden Faces Zero Population Growth. Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 2, June, 1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gendell, Murray

This bulletin examines the causes of the fertility decline in Sweden and the concerns and ambivalence of Swedes about zero population growth (ZPG). The fertility decline is attributed to many causes. In recent years there has been a drop in marriage rates and a sharp increase in non-marital cohabitation. The decline is also related to the…

Chronic effects of an invasive species on an animal community.

PubMed

Doody, J Sean; Rhind, David; Green, Brian; Castellano, Christina; McHenry, Colin; Clulow, Simon

2017-08-01

Invasive species can trigger trophic cascades in animal communities, but published cases involving their removal of top predators are extremely rare. An exception is the invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina) in Australia, which has caused severe population declines in monitor lizards, triggering trophic cascades that facilitated dramatic and sometimes unexpected increases in several prey of the predators, including smaller lizards, snakes, turtles, crocodiles, and birds. Persistence of isolated populations of these predators with a decades-long sympatry with toads suggests the possibility of recovery, but alternative explanations are possible. Confirming predator recovery requires longer-term study of populations with both baseline and immediate post-invasion densities. Previously, we quantified short-term impacts of invasive cane toads on animal communities over seven years at two sites in tropical Australia. Herein, we test the hypothesis that predators have begun to recover by repeating the study 12 yr after the initial toad invasion. The three predatory lizards that experienced 71-97% declines in the short-term study showed no sign of recovery, and indeed a worse fate: two of the three species were no longer detectable in 630 km of river surveys, suggesting local extirpation. Two mesopredators that had increased markedly in the short term due to these predator losses showed diverse responses in the medium term; a small lizard species increased by ~500%, while populations of a snake species showed little change. Our results indicate a system still in ecological turmoil, having not yet reached a "new equilibrium" more than a decade after the initial invasion; predator losses due to this toxic invasive species, and thus downstream effects, were not transient. Given that cane toads have proven too prolific to eradicate or control, we suggest that recovery of impacted predators must occur unassisted by evolutionary means: dispersal into extinction sites from surviving populations with alleles for toxin resistance or toad avoidance. Evolution and subsequent dispersal may be the only solution for a number of species or communities affected by invasive species for which control is either prohibitively expensive, or not possible. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Long-term genetic monitoring of a riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae]: Direct anthropogenic impact versus climate change effects.

PubMed

Herzog, Rebecca; Hadrys, Heike

2017-01-01

Modern conservationists call for long term genetic monitoring datasets to evaluate and understand the impact of human activities on natural ecosystems and species on a global but also local scale. However, long-term monitoring datasets are still rare but in high demand to correctly identify, evaluate and respond to environmental changes. In the presented study, a population of the riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae), was monitored over a time period from 1989 to 2013. Study site was an artificial irrigation ditch in one of the last European stone steppes and "nature heritage", the Crau in Southern France. This artificial riverine habitat has an unusual high diversity of odonate species, prominent indicators for evaluating freshwater habitats. A clearing of the canal and destruction of the bank vegetation in 1996 was assumed to have great negative impact on the odonate larval and adult populations. Two mitochondrial markers (CO1 & ND1) and a panel of nuclear microsatellite loci were used to assess the genetic diversity. Over time they revealed a dramatic decline in diversity parameters between the years 2004 and 2007, however not between 1996 and 1997. From 2007 onwards the population shows a stabilizing trend but has not reached the amount of genetic variation found at the beginning of this survey. This decline cannot be referred to the clearing of the canal or any other direct anthropogenic impact. Instead, it is most likely that the populations' decay was due to by extreme weather conditions during the specific years. A severe drought was recorded for the summer months of these years, leading to reduced water levels in the canal causing also other water parameters to change, and therefore impacting temperature sensitive riverine habitat specialists like the O. coerulescens in a significant way. The data provide important insights into population genetic dynamics and metrics not always congruent with traditional monitoring data (e.g. abundance); a fact that should be regarded with caution when management plans for developed landscapes are designed.

Postnatal growth of the human pons: a morphometric and immunohistochemical analysis.

PubMed

Tate, Matthew C; Lindquist, Robert A; Nguyen, Thuhien; Sanai, Nader; Barkovich, A James; Huang, Eric J; Rowitch, David H; Alvarez-Buylla, Arturo

2015-02-15

Despite its critical importance to global brain function, the postnatal development of the human pons remains poorly understood. In the present study, we first performed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based morphometric analyses of the postnatal human pons (0-18 years; n = 6-14/timepoint). Pons volume increased 6-fold from birth to 5 years, followed by continued slower growth throughout childhood. The observed growth was primarily due to expansion of the basis pontis. T2-based MRI analysis suggests that this growth is linked to increased myelination, and histological analysis of myelin basic protein in human postmortem specimens confirmed a dramatic increase in myelination during infancy. Analysis of cellular proliferation revealed many Ki67(+) cells during the first 7 months of life, particularly during the first month, where proliferation was increased in the basis relative to tegmentum. The majority of proliferative cells in the postnatal pons expressed the transcription factor Olig2, suggesting an oligodendrocyte lineage. The proportion of proliferating cells that were Olig2(+) was similar through the first 7 months of life and between basis and tegmentum. The number of Ki67(+) cells declined dramatically from birth to 7 months and further decreased by 3 years, with a small number of Ki67(+) cells observed throughout childhood. In addition, two populations of vimentin/nestin-expressing cells were identified: a dorsal group near the ventricular surface, which persists throughout childhood, and a parenchymal population that diminishes by 7 months and was not evident later in childhood. Together, our data reveal remarkable postnatal growth in the ventral pons, particularly during infancy when cells are most proliferative and myelination increases. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Decline of disjunct green salamander (Aneides aeneus) populations in the southern appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corser, J.D.

2001-01-01

Coincident with other amphibians around the world Aneides aeneus, a terrestrial plethodontid salamander, suffered a population collapse in a disjunct portion of its range in the mid-late 1970s. Long-term monitoring of seven historical green salamander populations throughout the 1990s showed a 98% decline in relative abundance since 1970. Three out of six populations first discovered in 1991 also crashed in 1996-1997. The synchronized suddenness of the declines, their region-wide impact, and effects on both small and larger populations, suggest the role of a novel agent of mortality beginning in the mid-late 1970s. Acting alone, but more likely in concert, habitat loss, overcollecting, epidemic disease and climate change could account for this region-wide decline.

What precipitates depression in African-American cancer patients? Triggers and stressors.

PubMed

Zhang, Amy Y; Gary, Faye; Zhu, Hui

2012-12-01

This study examined general and cancer-related stressors of depression that are unique to African-American cancer patients. The study used cohort design and mixed methods. Seventy-four breast and prostate cancer survivors including 34 depressed and 23 non-depressed African-Americans and 17 depressed whites were interviewed. Qualitative data analysis identified themes. The thematic codes were converted to a SPSS data set numerically. The Fisher's exact test was performed to examine group differences in the experience of stress. Significantly more depressed African-Americans experienced a dramatic reaction to a cancer diagnosis (p = 0.03) or had concerns about functional decline (p = 0.01), arguments with relatives or friends (p = 0.02), and unemployment status (p = 0.03) than did non-depressed African-Americans, who reacted to the cancer diagnosis as a matter of reality (p = 0.02). Significantly more depressed African-Americans talked about feeling shocked by a cancer diagnosis (p = 0.04) and being unable to do things that they used to do (p = 0.02) than did depressed whites. Qualitative analysis shed light on the extent of such group differences. Distress from the initial cancer diagnosis and functional decline were likely to have triggered or worsened depression in African-American cancer patients. This study highlighted racial differences in this aspect. It is critical to screen African-American cancer patients for depression at two critical junctures: immediately after the disclosure of a cancer diagnosis and at the onset of functional decline. This will enhance the chance of prompt diagnosis and treatment of depression in this underserved population.

Seasonal differences in extinction and colonization drive occupancy dynamics of an imperilled amphibian.

PubMed

Randall, Lea A; Smith, Des H V; Jones, Breana L; Prescott, David R C; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2015-01-01

A detailed understanding of the population dynamics of many amphibian species is lacking despite concerns about declining amphibian biodiversity and abundance. This paper explores temporal patterns of occupancy and underlying extinction and colonization dynamics in a regionally imperiled amphibian species, the Northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) in Alberta. Our study contributes to elucidating regional occupancy dynamics at northern latitudes, where climate extremes likely have a profound effect on seasonal occupancy. The primary advantage of our study is its wide geographic scale (60,000 km2) and the use of repeat visual surveys each spring and summer from 2009-2013. We find that occupancy varied more dramatically between seasons than years, with low spring and higher summer occupancy. Between spring and summer, colonization was high and extinction low; inversely, colonization was low and extinction high over the winter. The dynamics of extinction and colonization are complex, making conservation management challenging. Our results reveal that Northern leopard frog occupancy was constant over the last five years and thus there is no evidence of decline or recovery within our study area. Changes to equilibrium occupancy are most sensitive to increasing colonization in the spring or declining extinction in the summer. Therefore, conservation and management efforts should target actions that are likely to increase spring colonization; this could be achieved through translocations or improving the quality or access to breeding habitat. Because summer occupancy is already high, it may be difficult to improve further. Nevertheless, summer extinction could be reduced by predator control, increasing water quality or hydroperiod of wetlands, or increasing the quality or quantity of summer habitat.

Mammal decline, linked to invasive Burmese python, shifts host use of vector mosquito towards reservoir hosts of a zoonotic disease.

PubMed

Hoyer, Isaiah J; Blosser, Erik M; Acevedo, Carolina; Thompson, Anna Carels; Reeves, Lawrence E; Burkett-Cadena, Nathan D

2017-10-01

Invasive apex predators have profound impacts on natural communities, yet the consequences of these impacts on the transmission of zoonotic pathogens are unexplored. Collapse of large- and medium-sized mammal populations in the Florida Everglades has been linked to the invasive Burmese python, Python bivittatus Kuhl. We used historic and current data to investigate potential impacts of these community effects on contact between the reservoir hosts (certain rodents) and vectors of Everglades virus, a zoonotic mosquito-borne pathogen that circulates in southern Florida. The percentage of blood meals taken from the primary reservoir host, the hispid cotton rat, Sigmodon hispidus Say and Ord, increased dramatically (422.2%) from 1979 (14.7%) to 2016 (76.8%), while blood meals from deer, raccoons and opossums decreased by 98.2%, reflecting precipitous declines in relative abundance of these larger mammals, attributed to python predation. Overall species diversity of hosts detected in Culex cedecei blood meals from the Everglades declined by 40.2% over the same period ( H (1979) = 1.68, H (2016) = 1.01). Predictions based upon the dilution effect theory suggest that increased relative feedings upon reservoir hosts translate into increased abundance of infectious vectors, and a corresponding upsurge of Everglades virus occurrence and risk of human exposure, although this was not tested in the current study. This work constitutes the first indication that an invasive predator can increase contact between vectors and reservoirs of a human pathogen and highlights unrecognized indirect impacts of invasive predators. © 2017 The Author(s).

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina).

PubMed

Clausius, Ella; McMahon, Clive R; Hindell, Mark A

2017-01-01

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries

PubMed Central

Raftery, Adrian E.; Li, Nan; Ševčíková, Hana; Gerland, Patrick; Heilig, Gerhard K.

2012-01-01

Projections of countries’ future populations, broken down by age and sex, are widely used for planning and research. They are mostly done deterministically, but there is a widespread need for probabilistic projections. We propose a Bayesian method for probabilistic population projections for all countries. The total fertility rate and female and male life expectancies at birth are projected probabilistically using Bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo using United Nations population data for all countries. These are then converted to age-specific rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of any population quantity of interest. The method is illustrated for five countries of different demographic stages, continents and sizes. The method is validated by an out of sample experiment in which data from 1950–1990 are used for estimation, and applied to predict 1990–2010. The method appears reasonably accurate and well calibrated for this period. The results suggest that the current United Nations high and low variants greatly underestimate uncertainty about the number of oldest old from about 2050 and that they underestimate uncertainty for high fertility countries and overstate uncertainty for countries that have completed the demographic transition and whose fertility has started to recover towards replacement level, mostly in Europe. The results also indicate that the potential support ratio (persons aged 20–64 per person aged 65+) will almost certainly decline dramatically in most countries over the coming decades. PMID:22908249

Demographic transition and the dynamics of measles in six provinces in China: A modeling study

PubMed Central

Su, Qiru; An, Zhijie; Ma, Fubao; Xie, Shuyun; Xu, Aiqiang; Zhang, Yanyang; Ding, Zhengrong; Li, Hui; Wang, Huaqing; Luo, Huiming; Wang, Ning; Li, Li; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2017-01-01

Background Industrialization and demographic transition generate nonstationary dynamics in human populations that can affect the transmission and persistence of infectious diseases. Decades of increasing vaccination and development have led to dramatic declines in the global burden of measles, but the virus remains persistent in much of the world. Here we show that a combination of demographic transition, as a result of declining birth rates, and reduced measles prevalence, due to improved vaccination, has shifted the age distribution of susceptibility to measles throughout China. Methods and findings We fit a novel time-varying catalytic model to three decades of age-specific measles case reporting in six provinces in China to quantify the change in the age-specific force of infection for measles virus over time. We further quantified the impact of supplemental vaccination campaigns on the reduction of susceptible individuals. The force of infection of measles has declined dramatically (90%–97% reduction in transmission rate) in three industrialized eastern provinces during the last decade, driving a concomitant increase in both the relative proportion and absolute number of adult cases, while three central and western provinces exhibited dynamics consistent with endemic persistence (24%–73% reduction in transmission rate). The reduction in susceptible individuals due to supplemental vaccination campaigns is frequently below the nominal campaign coverage, likely because campaigns necessarily vaccinate those who may already be immune. The impact of these campaigns has significantly improved over time: campaigns prior to 2005 were estimated to have achieved less than 50% reductions in the proportion susceptible in the target age classes, but campaigns from 2005 onwards reduced the susceptible proportion by 32%–87%. A limitation of this study is that it relies on case surveillance, and thus inference may be biased by age-specific variation in measles reporting. Conclusions The age distribution of measles cases changes in response to both demographic and vaccination processes. Combining both processes in a novel catalytic model, we illustrate that age-specific incidence patterns reveal regional differences in the progress to measles elimination and the impact of vaccination controls in China. The shift in the age distribution of measles susceptibility in response to demographic and vaccination processes emphasizes the importance of progressive control strategies and measures to evaluate program success that anticipate and react to this transition in observed incidence. PMID:28376084

The evolving price of household LED lamps: Recent trends and historical comparisons for the US market

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerke, Brian F.; Ngo, Allison T.; Alstone, Andrea L.

2014-10-14

In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the USmore » market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.« less

Climate change and amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corn, P.S.

2005-01-01

Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

EPA Science Inventory

Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

The state of world population and its implications for the US.

PubMed

Fornos, W

1987-07-01

Before the end of the century, annual world population growth is expected to exceed 90 million. Among the consequences of this rapid population growth--most of which will take place in developing countries-- are environmental degradation, urban deterioration, unemployment, hunger, resource depletion, and economic stagnation. Despite this alarming situation, the US Government has reduced appropriations for international population aid from US$290 million in 1985 to $200 million in 1988. In addition, the US has stopped funding the 2 organizations that have been most effective in providing family planning assistance to developing countries: the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and the International Planned Parenthood Federation. The US has adapted a policy that asserts that population is a neutral factor in development and promotes capitalism as a means of lowering fertility. However, experience in developing countries such as Thailand, China, and the Philippines that have undergone dramatic fertility declines attests that family planning efforts can result in economic growth. Over 80% of developing countries have established population control policies yet they will require substantial financial and technical aid from industrialized nations. It is ironic that the US has turned away from a commitment to helping poor countries to voluntarily reduce their high fertility rates at a time when such countries have accepted the necessity of such a goal. It is further ironic that the US expresses concern about the threat of revolution in areas such as Central America, yet fails to comprehend the social unrest and threats to global stability that will emerge as a result of continued population growth. At least a doubling--preferably a tripling--of US population assistance is needed.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

Can selective migration explain why health is worse in regions with population decline?: A study on migration and self-rated health in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Aletta; Kibele, Eva U B; Verweij, Antonia; van der Lucht, Fons; Janssen, Fanny

2015-12-01

Health disparities between population declining and non-declining areas have received little attention, even though population decline is an established phenomenon in Europe. Selective migration, in which healthier people move out of deprived areas, can possibly explain worse health in declining regions. We assessed whether selective migration can explain the observed worse average health in declining regions as compared with non-declining regions in the Netherlands. Combining data from the Dutch Housing and Living Survey held in 2002 and 2006 with Dutch registry data, we studied the relation between health status and migration in a 5-year period at the individual level by applying logistic regression. In our sample of 130,600 participants, we compared health status, demographic and socioeconomic factors of movers and stayers from declining and non-declining regions. People in the Netherlands who migrated are healthier than those staying behind [odds ratio (OR): 1.80]. This effect is larger for persons moving out of declining regions (OR: 1.76) than those moving into declining regions (OR: 1.47). When controlled for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, these effects are not significant. Moreover, only a small part of the population migrates out of (0.29%) or into (0.25%) declining regions in the course of 5 years. Despite the relation between health and migration, the effect of selective migration on health differences between declining and non-declining regions in the Netherlands is small. Both health and migration are complexly linked with socioeconomic and demographic factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

PubMed Central

Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

2010-01-01

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root. PMID:20534600

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations

PubMed Central

French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Abstract Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction. PMID:27293710

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations.

PubMed

Maute, Kimberly; French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction.

Genomic Consequences of Population Decline in the Endangered Florida Scrub-Jay.

PubMed

Chen, Nancy; Cosgrove, Elissa J; Bowman, Reed; Fitzpatrick, John W; Clark, Andrew G

2016-11-07

Understanding the population genetic consequences of declining population size is important for conserving the many species worldwide facing severe decline [1]. Thorough empirical studies on the impacts of population reduction at a genome-wide scale in the wild are scarce because they demand huge field and laboratory investments [1, 2]. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of gene flow in introducing genetic variation to small populations [3], but few have documented both genetic and fitness consequences of decreased immigration through time in a natural population [4-6]. Here we assess temporal variation in gene flow, inbreeding, and fitness using longitudinal genomic, demographic, and phenotypic data from a long-studied population of federally Threatened Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens). We exhaustively sampled and genotyped the study population over two decades, providing one of the most detailed longitudinal investigations of genetics in a wild animal population to date. Immigrants were less heterozygous than residents but still introduced genetic variation into our study population. Owing to regional population declines, immigration into the study population declined from 1995-2013, resulting in increased levels of inbreeding and reduced fitness via inbreeding depression, even as the population remained demographically stable. Our results show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, small peripheral populations that already have undergone a genetic bottleneck may play a vital role in preserving genetic diversity of larger and seemingly stable populations. These findings underscore the importance of investing in the persistence of small populations and maintaining population connectivity in conservation of fragmented species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The dose-response analysis between BMI and common chronic diseases in northeast China.

PubMed

Yu, Jianxing; Tao, Yuchun; Dou, Jing; Ye, Junsen; Yu, Yaqin; Jin, Lina

2018-03-09

High body mass index (BMI) predisposes to several chronic diseases, but a large-scale systematic and detailed study of dose-response relationship between BMI and chronic diseases has not been reported previously. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between BMI and 3 chronic diseases (hypertension, dyslipidemia and MetS) in northeast China. A sample of 16412 participants aged 18~79 years old were included in Jilin province in 2012. The lambda-mu-sigma (LMS) method was applied to examine the trend of BMI by age, and the restricted cubic splines were used to investigate the non-linear associations (dose-response curve) between BMI and chronic diseases. It was pointed out that BMI increased rapidly when young, then kept steady in middle age, and finally declined slowly in old age, and accordingly age was divided into 3 segments, which were different by gender. The odds ratios (ORs) of BMI for the chronic diseases increased relatively slowly when young, then increased dramatically in middle-age and old population, especially for men. Further, the ORs of BMI among non-smokers were lower than those among smokers, and the same trend was shown to be more apparent among drinkers and non-drinkers. The risk of BMI for common chronic diseases increased dramatically in middle-aged, especially for men with drinking and smoking habits.

Pediatric fluoroquinolone prescription in South Korea before and after a regulatory intervention: A nationwide study, 2007-2015.

PubMed

Song, Seung Yeon; Shin, Joo Hee; Hyeon, Su Yeong; Kim, Donguk; Kang, Won Ku; Choi, Soo-Han; Kim, Yae-Jean; Kim, Eun Young

2017-01-01

To investigate the impact of national implementation of age restriction on fluoroquinolone prescription in children and adolescents. Data collected from the database of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service in South Korea, a national health insurance system to analyze fluoroquinolone prescribing practice in children and adolescents younger than 18 years, between 2007 and 2015. The age restriction was implemented in December 2009. The annual prescription rate of FQ per 100,000 person-years was calculated and an autoregressive model was used to predict the prescription pattern if an intervention had not occurred. A total of 505,859 children received systemic fluoroquinolone during the study period-297,054 ciprofloxacin, and 208,805 levofloxacin. After implementation of the drug utilization review program, the annual prescription rate for ciprofloxacin declined by 97.5% (from 840 to 21 per 100,000 person-years, P < 0.001), and for levofloxacin by 96.4% (from 598 to 11 per 100,000 person-years, P < 0.001). The decline was more dramatic in the outpatient setting than in the inpatient setting for both drugs. The dramatic and sustained decline in prescription number and change in prescription pattern after the regulatory action suggests that the implementation under drug utilization review program was successful in controlling excessive and inappropriate use of fluoroquinolones in children, possibly guiding towards more judicious and selective prescription behavior.

Pediatric fluoroquinolone prescription in South Korea before and after a regulatory intervention: A nationwide study, 2007-2015

PubMed Central

Hyeon, Su Yeong; Kim, Donguk; Kang, Won Ku; Choi, Soo-Han; Kim, Yae-Jean

2017-01-01

Objective To investigate the impact of national implementation of age restriction on fluoroquinolone prescription in children and adolescents. Methods Data collected from the database of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service in South Korea, a national health insurance system to analyze fluoroquinolone prescribing practice in children and adolescents younger than 18 years, between 2007 and 2015. The age restriction was implemented in December 2009. The annual prescription rate of FQ per 100,000 person-years was calculated and an autoregressive model was used to predict the prescription pattern if an intervention had not occurred. Results A total of 505,859 children received systemic fluoroquinolone during the study period—297,054 ciprofloxacin, and 208,805 levofloxacin. After implementation of the drug utilization review program, the annual prescription rate for ciprofloxacin declined by 97.5% (from 840 to 21 per 100,000 person-years, P < 0.001), and for levofloxacin by 96.4% (from 598 to 11 per 100,000 person-years, P < 0.001). The decline was more dramatic in the outpatient setting than in the inpatient setting for both drugs. Conclusion The dramatic and sustained decline in prescription number and change in prescription pattern after the regulatory action suggests that the implementation under drug utilization review program was successful in controlling excessive and inappropriate use of fluoroquinolones in children, possibly guiding towards more judicious and selective prescription behavior. PMID:28520738

Semi-quantitative assay for polyketide prymnesins isolated from Prymnesium parvum (Haptophyta) cultures.

PubMed

La Claire, J W; Manning, S R; Talarski, A E

2015-08-01

A fluorometric assay was developed to semi-quantify co-purified polyketide prymnesins-1 and -2 (PPs) from Prymnesium parvum cultures. Evaluations performed throughout the growth cycle of 5 practical salinity unit (PSU) cultures detected relatively 8-10 × more PPs in the culture medium (exotoxins) than in cells (endotoxins). The [exotoxin] remained stable and relatively low until post-log growth, when they increased significantly. However, on a per-cell basis, [exotoxin] declined throughout log phase and subsequently increased dramatically during late- and post-log phases. The [endotoxin] remained stable until late- and post-log phases, when it achieved its highest level before declining sharply. Shaking cultures of strains from Texas, South Carolina and the United Kingdom displayed dramatically different [exotoxin] during post-log decline. Cultures adapted to 30 PSU had significantly lower [exotoxin] over the course of cultivation than those grown at 5 PSU. Phosphate limitation enhanced [exotoxin] on a per-cell basis, especially in late- and post-log cultures. Media containing streptomycin exhibited a ∼20% increase in [exotoxin] in post-log cultures vs. control treatments, but it had only negligible effects on endotoxin levels. Brefeldin A had minimal effects on [exotoxin], suggesting that the presence of PPs in the medium may be largely derived from cell lysis or some other passive means. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness.

PubMed

Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy

2018-06-01

Climate change has been scientifically documented, and its effects on wildlife have been prognosticated. We sought to predict the overall impact of climate change on venomous terrestrial species. We hypothesize that given the close relationship between terrestrial venomous species and climate, a changing global environment may result in increased species migration, geographical redistribution, and longer seasons for envenomation, which would have repercussions on human health. A retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature was performed with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous terrestrial creatures. Species included venomous reptiles, snakes, arthropods, spiders, and Hymenoptera (ants and bees). Animals that are vectors of hemorrhagic infectious disease (eg, mosquitos, ticks) were excluded. Our review of the literature indicates that changes to climatic norms will have a potentially dramatic effect on terrestrial venomous creatures. Empirical evidence demonstrates that geographic distributions of many species have already shifted due to changing climatic conditions. Given that most terrestrial venomous species are ectotherms closely tied to ambient temperature, and that climate change is shifting temperature zones away from the equator, further significant distribution and population changes should be anticipated. For those species able to migrate to match the changing temperatures, new geographical locations may open. For those species with limited distribution capabilities, the rate of climate change may accelerate faster than species can adapt, causing population declines. Specifically, poisonous snakes and spiders will likely maintain their population numbers but will shift their geographic distribution to traditionally temperate zones more often inhabited by humans. Fire ants and Africanized honey bees are expected to have an expanded range distribution due to predicted warming trends. Human encounters with these types of creatures are likely to increase, resulting in potential human morbidity and mortality. Temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms may have a dramatic effect on venomous terrestrial species. As climate change affects the distribution, populations, and life histories of these organisms, the chance of encounters could be altered, thus affecting human health and the survivability of these creatures. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relaxation of risk-sensitive behaviour of prey following disease-induced decline of an apex predator, the Tasmanian devil

PubMed Central

Hollings, Tracey; McCallum, Hamish; Kreger, Kaely; Mooney, Nick; Jones, Menna

2015-01-01

Apex predators structure ecosystems through lethal and non-lethal interactions with prey, and their global decline is causing loss of ecological function. Behavioural changes of prey are some of the most rapid responses to predator decline and may act as an early indicator of cascading effects. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), an apex predator, is undergoing progressive and extensive population decline, of more than 90% in long-diseased areas, caused by a novel disease. Time since local disease outbreak correlates with devil population declines and thus predation risk. We used hair traps and giving-up densities (GUDs) in food patches to test whether a major prey species of devils, the arboreal common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), is responsive to the changing risk of predation when they forage on the ground. Possums spend more time on the ground, discover food patches faster and forage more to a lower GUD with increasing years since disease outbreak and greater devil population decline. Loss of top–down effects of devils with respect to predation risk was evident at 90% devil population decline, with possum behaviour indistinguishable from a devil-free island. Alternative predators may help to maintain risk-sensitive anti-predator behaviours in possums while devil populations remain low. PMID:26085584

Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

The United Nations (UN) Population Division monitors fertility, mortality, and migration trends for all countries as a basis for producing the official UN population estimates and projections. Among recent demographic trends, two are prominent: (1) population decline and (2) population aging. Focusing on these two critical trends, a study…

Loss of sagebrush ecosystems and declining bird populations in the Intermountain West: Priority research issues and information needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2002-01-01

Sagebrush lands in the Intermountain West are declining rapidly in quality and extent. Consequently, populations of many bird species dependent on these ecosystems also are declining. The greater sage-grouse has been petitioned for listing as a threatened and endangered species, and other species of sagebrush-obligate birds have special conservation status in most states. We identified the primary issues and information needs during a multi-agency workshop, conducted in response to concerns by management agencies related to declining bird population trends in sagebrush habitats. Priority needs were to (1) obtain a better understanding of bird response to habitat and landscape features, (2) develop monitoring designs to sample habitats and bird populations, (3) determine the effects of land use on sagebrush habitats and dependent bird species, and (4) identify linkages between breeding and wintering ranges. This agenda will identify causes and mechanisms of population declines in birds dependent on sagebrush ecosystems and will lead to better management of the ecosystems upon which they depend.

A young-onset frontal dementia with dramatic calcifications due to a novel CSF1R mutation.

PubMed

Gore, Ethan; Manley, Andrew; Dees, Daniel; Appleby, Brian S; Lerner, Alan J

2016-06-01

Neuroimaging and genomic analysis greatly aid in the identification of young-onset dementia antemortem. We present the case of a 33-year-old female with a 2-year rapid decline to dementia and immobility marked by personality change, executive deficits including compulsions, attention deficit, apraxia, Parkinsonism, and pyramidal signs. She had unique and dramatic calcifications and confluent white matter changes on imaging and was found to have a novel mutation in the colony stimulating factor 1 receptor gene causing adult-onset leukoencephalopathy with axonal spheroids and pigmented glia (ALSP). Here, we review ALSP and briefly discuss differential diagnoses.

Activist Scholarship in Action: The Prevention of a Latino School Closure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valencia, Richard R.

2012-01-01

Primarily because of underutilized schools (caused by declining enrollments) and the need to address budgetary deficits brought on by dramatic reductions in average daily attendance, many public school districts, in decades past and the present, have been forced to close numerous schools across the nation. The school boards of these economically…

Overworked? An Observation of the Relationship between Student Employment and Academic Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Logan, Jennifer; Hughes, Traci; Logan, Brian

2016-01-01

Current observations from the National Center for Education Statistics demonstrate the dramatic increase in college student employment over the past few decades. Not only are more students employed than in previous decades, students are working more hours. This could lead to declines in academic performance as hours worked increase, resulting in…

Evaluation of safe routes to school programs : qualitative and quantitative analysis of parental decision-making.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

In the United States, walking to school declined from 42% of 5-18 year olds in 1969 to 16% in 20011. The US : Department of Transportation has responded to this dramatic decrease by funding the Safe Routes to School program : for $612 million in SAFE...

Dramatic Decline of Respiratory Illness Among US Military Recruits After the Renewed Use of Adenovirus Vaccines

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

editors consider relevant to the con- tent of the manuscript have been disclosed. References 1. Broderick MP, Hansen CJ, Russell KL. Exploration of...Russell KL, Broderick MP, Franklin SE, et al. Transmission dynamics and prospective environmental sampling of adenovirus in a military recruit setting

Athletics Programs as Facilitators of Enrollment at Private NCAA Division III Institutions in the Midwest

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bruder, Heather J.

2017-01-01

The number of students at colleges and universities throughout the country continues to decline at a substantial rate. One group that has been affected dramatically by this increasingly competitive marketplace is small private institutions. Many of these institutions are members of the National Collegiate Athletic Association's (NCAA) Division…

Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis A and Hepatitis E Viruses in China, 1990-2014.

PubMed

Ren, Xiang; Wu, Peng; Wang, Liping; Geng, Mengjie; Zeng, Lingjia; Zhang, Jun; Xia, Ningshao; Lai, Shengjie; Dalton, Harry R; Cowling, Benjamin J; Yu, Hongjie

2017-02-01

We compared the epidemiology of hepatitis A and hepatitis E cases in China from 1990-2014 to better inform policy and prevention efforts. The incidence of hepatitis A cases declined dramatically, while hepatitis E incidence increased. During 2004-2014, hepatitis E mortality rates surpassed those of hepatitis A.

Local and National Testing in the UK: The Last Ten Years.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gipps, Caroline; Goldstein, Harvey

New developments in testing in the United Kingdom (UK) since 1965 are described. Standardized testing at the local level declined dramatically with the widespread introduction of comprehensive secondary education. However, in the late 1970's widespread local testing programs were re-introduced for the purposes of monitoring student progress,…

Suburban Schools: The Unrecognized Frontier in Public Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gill, Sean; Posamentier, Jordan; Hill, Paul T.

2016-01-01

Over the past two decades, big cities have been the most consistent focus of investment and controversy in American public education. The challenges for big cities are obvious. Increasing numbers of foreign-born students and students living in poverty, coupled with dramatic declines in the numbers of native-born middle-class students, mean that…

Children's Organized Sports: A Developmental Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brady, Frank

2004-01-01

Youth sports have become a childhood rite, yet they have a high dropout rate. Given the fact that participation rates decline dramatically as children grow older, coupled with the growing concern about the detrimental effects of a sedentary lifestyle, it is important that a greater understanding of the motivational patterns of children in physical…

Can Public Research Universities Compete? Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.17.06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brint, Steven

2006-01-01

Many leaders of public research universities worry about falling behind private research universities at a time when private university finances have improved dramatically and state support for higher education has declined. In this paper, I provide grounds for a more optimistic view of the competitive position of public research universities. I…

Bridges, Tunnels, and School Reform: It's the System, Stupid

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Thomas F.

2007-01-01

After almost three decades of school reform, student achievement nationally is about where it was when it started, and student behavior has declined dramatically. Numbers of dropouts, especially in cities and among the poor and minorities, have gotten much higher. Yet many billions of dollars have been spent; countless professionals have carried…

Organising Learning: Informal Workplace Learning in a Trade Union Child-Care Campaign

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Tony

2008-01-01

Purpose: Trade unions, like many other membership-based social movement organisations, are confronted by the challenge of growth and revitalisation. Declining membership numbers, an increasingly restrictive legislative framework, and dramatic changes in modes of employment have combined to challenge many unions to rethink the way they work. In…

Acid rain and sugar maple decline

Treesearch

Paul G. Schaberg

2017-01-01

Through the increased combustion of fossil fuels, humans have dramatically increased pollutant additions of sulfur and nitrogen into the atmosphere where it conbines with water to form sulfuric and nitric acids, creating acid rain (Driscoll et al. 2001). Incoming acid rain has various impacts on human and natural systems, including the accelerated degradation of built...

Here's How You Can Carry On the Fight against Epidemics in Your Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hickson, Meredith Ann; Hinman, Alan R.

1983-01-01

During the 1970's many children lacked immunization against one or more of the major childhood diseases. Recently the number of cases of childhood diseases has declined dramatically. The schools are the focal point for disease prevention. Outlined are 10 steps to continue to ensure childrens' health. (MD)

The Board's Role in Financial Oversight. AGB Board Essentials Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krawitz, Natalie

2015-01-01

An often-volatile economy, changing demographics, and technological innovations in educational delivery are among the dramatic changes across higher education that have forced boards and institutions to question the viability of the existing business model. Flat or declining state support in real terms, lower investment returns in some years,…

Analyzing the complexity of cone production in longleaf pine by multiscale entropy

Treesearch

Xiongwen Chen; Qinfeng Guo; Dale G. Brockway

2016-01-01

The longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) forests are important ecosystems in the southeastern USA because of their ecological and economic value. Since European settlement, longleaf pine ecosystems have dramatically declined in extent, to the degree that they are now listed as endangered ecosystems. Its sporadic seed production, which...

Elevated VGKC-Complex Antibodies in a Boy with Fever-Induced Refractory Epileptic Encephalopathy in School-Age Children (FIRES)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Illingworth, Marjorie A.; Hanrahan, Donncha; Anderson, Claire E.; O'Kane, Kathryn; Anderson, Jennifer; Casey, Maureen; de Sousa, Carlos; Cross, J. Helen; Wright, Sukvhir; Dale, Russell C.; Vincent, Angela; Kurian, Manju A.

2011-01-01

Fever-induced refractory epileptic encephalopathy in school-age children (FIRES) is a clinically recognized epileptic encephalopathy of unknown aetiology. Presentation in previously healthy children is characterized by febrile status epilepticus. A pharmacoresistant epilepsy ensues, occurring in parallel with dramatic cognitive decline and…

Wind Energy Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conservation and Renewable Energy Inquiry and Referral Service (DOE), Silver Spring, MD.

During the 1920s and 1930s, millions of wind energy systems were used on farms and other locations far from utility lines. However, with passage of the Rural Electrification Act in 1939, cheap electricity was brought to rural areas. After that, the use of wind machines dramatically declined. Recently, the rapid rise in fuel prices has led to a…

Pull the Weeds Before You Plant the Flowers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeves, Douglas

2006-01-01

Educators are drowning under the weight of initiative fatigue--attempting to use the same amount of time, money, and emotional energy to accomplish more and more objectives. Eventually, each initiative added to the pile creates a dramatic decline in organizational effectiveness. As such, principals need to help their teachers by lessening the…

Higher Education Finance: A Case Study of Minority-Serving Institutions in New Mexico

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunter, Virginia Rae

2017-01-01

This study explores the relationship between state and federal funding policies and the ability of minority-serving institutions (MSIs) to support low-income and minority students. The way US public higher education is financed has changed dramatically since the Great Recession. State appropriations to institutions have declined (SHEEO, 2017),…

Whitebark and limber pine restoration and monitoring in Glacier National Park

Treesearch

Jennifer M. Asebrook; Joyce Lapp; Tara. Carolin

2011-01-01

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis) are keystone species important to watersheds, grizzly and black bears, squirrels, birds, and other wildlife. Both high elevation five-needled pines have dramatically declined in Glacier National Park primarily due to white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) and fire exclusion, with mountain pine...

Trends in Southern pulpwood production, 1953-1993

Treesearch

Tony G. Johnson

1996-01-01

Southern pulpwood production has increased more than fourfold from 16.2 million cords in 1953 to 66.3 million cords in 1993. Softwood roundwood production more than doubled in the same time period; however, softwood production expressed as a proportion of the total production dramatically declined. In contrast, hardwood roundwood production and production from residues...

What we know and don't know about amphibian declines in the West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corn, Paul Stephen

1994-01-01

The problem of declining amphibian species is thought to be particularly acute in western North America, but there are many gaps in our knowledge. Although several declines have been well-documented, other declines are anecdotal or hypothesized. Most documented declines are of ranid frogs or toads (Bufo). Species from montane habitats and those occurring in California have been best studied. Status of many desert species is unknown. Habitat destruction and introduced predators are the most common threats to amphibian populations. Some declines may represent natural variation in population size. Causes have not been determined for several cases where common species have declined over large areas. There are important considerations for ecosystem management, whether changes in amphibian populations are natural or caused by human activities. Causes for declines must be known so that management can be prescribed (or proscribed) to eliminate or minimize these causes. The natural variability of amphibian population numbers and the complexity of metapopulation structure emphasize the necessity of considering multiple temporal and spatial scales in ecosystem management. The decline of amphibian species throughout the world has received considerable recent attention (e.g., Blaustein and Wake 1990, Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Yoffe 1992). Much of this attention derives from a workshop held in February, 1990 on declining amphibians sponsored by the National Research Council Board (NRC) on Biology in Irvine, California (Barinaga 1990, Borchelt 1990). Because of media attention in the aftermath of this conference, it is a popular perception that amphibian declines are a new phenomenon that herpetologists have been slow to recognize (Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Quammen 1993). However, concern about amphibian populations in the United States dates back over 20 years. Beginning in the 1960s, a large, well-documented decline of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) occurred in the upper Midwest (Gibbs et al. 1971, Hine, 1981, Rittshof 1975).

Productivity, mortality, and population trends of wolves in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

1977-01-01

Population parameters, mortality causes, and mechanisms of a population decline were studied in wolves (Canis lupus lycaon) from 1968 to 1976 in the Superior National Forest. The main method was aerial radio-tracking of 129 wolves and their packmates. Due to a decline in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the wolf population decreased during most of the study. Average annual productivity varied from 1.5 to 3.3 pups per litter, and annual mortality rates from 7 to 65 percent. Malnutrition and intraspecific strife accounted equally for 58 percent of the mortality; human causes accounted for the remainder. As wolf numbers began to decline, pup starvation became apparent, followed by lower pup production, and then by increased intraspecific strife. At higher densities, adult pack wolves were the most secure members of the population, but as the population declined, they became the least secure because of intraspecific strife.

Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

2012-11-01

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

[Fertility change in Mexico and the politics of population].

PubMed

Zavala De Cosio, M E

1993-01-01

This introduction to a detailed study of fertility change in Mexico assesses the available fertility data and describes the sources used, traces the beginning and course of the demographic transition in Mexico, and describes the work. Mexico's demographic transition began around 1930 with the acceleration of mortality decline. The considerable time lag between the mortality decline and the beginning of the fertility decline resulted in a period of very rapid growth. Between 1955 and 1975, the growth rate exceeded 3% annually. The start of the fertility decline dated to about 1970, the time of a major reform of population policy and creation of institutions to reduce growth. But the fertility decline was not solely the result of population programs. An incipient fertility decline could be observed in the metropolitan and more educated population sectors beginning in the early 1960s. The onset of the mortality decline in the 1930s resulted from the sustained social and economic progress made possible after the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution. Between 1930 and 1980, the adult illiteracy rate declined from 61.2% to 17%, while life expectancy increased from 33 years to 63.2 years. In Mexico as in other Latin American countries, the mortality decline, which disturbed the traditional balance between high mortality and high fertility, was the force setting off the demographic transition and the necessary precursor to fertility decline. The first of two main sections of the book focuses on examination of fertility variations in Mexico since around 1900 using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods of analysis. The second part describes the origins, history, and institutions involved in Mexico's population policies and the demographic programs and their principal results. The influence of population policies in demographic change is assessed, especially in the case of fertility changes induced by family planning programs. Both the first and second parts sought to place Mexican fertility trends in the context of the demographic transition and to observe the functioning and effects of demographic programs.

Patterns of Senescence in Human Cardiovascular Fitness: VO2max in Subsistence and Industrialized Populations

PubMed Central

Pisor, Anne C.; Gurven, Michael; Blackwell, Aaron D.; Kaplan, Hillard; Yetish, Gandhi

2014-01-01

Objectives This study explores whether cardiovascular fitness levels and senescent decline are similar in the Tsimane of Bolivia and Canadians, as well as other subsistence and industrialized populations. Among Tsimane, we examine whether morbidity predicts lower levels and faster decline of cardiovascular fitness, or whether their lifestyle (e.g., high physical activity) promotes high levels and slow decline. Alternatively, high activity levels and morbidity might counterbalance such that Tsimane fitness levels and decline are similar to those in industrialized populations. Methods Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) was estimated using a step test heart rate method for 701 participants. We compared these estimates to the Canadian Health Measures Survey and previous studies in industrialized and subsistence populations. We evaluated whether health indicators and proxies for market integration were associated with VO2max levels and rate of decline for the Tsimane. Results The Tsimane have significantly higher levels of VO2max and slower rates of decline than Canadians; initial evidence suggests differences in VO2max levels between other subsistence and industrialized populations. Low hemoglobin predicts low VO2max for Tsimane women while helminth infection predicts high VO2max for Tsimane men, though results might be specific to the VO2max scaling parameter used. No variables tested interact with age to moderate decline. Conclusions The Tsimane demonstrate higher levels of cardiovascular fitness than industrialized populations, but levels similar to other subsistence populations. The high VO2max of Tsimane is consistent with their high physical activity and few indicators of cardiovascular disease, measured in previous studies. PMID:24022886

Advances in development reverse fertility declines.

PubMed

Myrskylä, Mikko; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Billari, Francesco C

2009-08-06

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.

Conservation genetics of extremely isolated urban populations of the northern dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus) in New York City

PubMed Central

Zak, Yana; Pehek, Ellen

2013-01-01

Urbanization is a major cause of amphibian decline. Stream-dwelling plethodontid salamanders are particularly susceptible to urbanization due to declining water quality and hydrological changes, but few studies have examined these taxa in cities. The northern dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus) was once common in the New York City metropolitan area, but has substantially declined throughout the region in recent decades. We used five tetranucleotide microsatellite loci to examine population differentiation, genetic variation, and bottlenecks among five remnant urban populations of dusky salamanders in NYC. These genetic measures provide information on isolation, prevalence of inbreeding, long-term prospects for population persistence, and potential for evolutionary responses to future environmental change. All populations were genetically differentiated from each other, and the most isolated populations in Manhattan have maintained very little genetic variation (i.e. <20% heterozygosity). A majority of the populations also exhibited evidence of genetic bottlenecks. These findings contrast with published estimates of high genetic variation within and lack of structure between populations of other desmognathine salamanders sampled over similar or larger spatial scales. Declines in genetic variation likely resulted from population extirpations and the degradation of stream and terrestrial paths for dispersal in NYC. Loss of genetic variability in populations isolated by human development may be an underappreciated cause and/or consequence of the decline of this species in urbanized areas of the northeast USA. PMID:23646283

Effects of shallow natural gas well structures and associated roads on grassland songbird reproductive success in Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Koper, Nicola

2017-01-01

Grassland songbird populations across North America have experienced dramatic population declines due to habitat loss and degradation. In Canada, energy development continues to fragment and disturb prairie habitat, but effects of oil and gas development on reproductive success of songbirds in North American mixed-grass prairies remains largely unknown. From 2010–2012, in southeastern Alberta, Canada, we monitored 257 nests of two ground-nesting grassland songbird species, Savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis) and chestnut-collared longspur (Calcarius ornatus). Nest locations varied with proximity to and density of conventional shallow gas well structures and associated roads in forty-two 258-ha mixed-grass prairie sites. We estimated the probabilities of nest success and clutch size relative to gas well structures and roads. There was little effect of distance to or density of gas well structure on nest success; however, Savannah sparrow experienced lower nest success near roads. Clutch sizes were lower near gas well structures and cattle water sources. Minimizing habitat disturbance surrounding gas well structures, and reducing abundance of roads and trails, would help minimize impacts on reproductive success for some grassland songbirds. PMID:28355241

Anthrax in Western and Central African great apes.

PubMed

Leendertz, Fabian H; Lankester, Felix; Guislain, Patrick; Néel, Cécile; Drori, Ofir; Dupain, Jef; Speede, Sheri; Reed, Patricia; Wolfe, Nathan; Loul, Severin; Mpoudi-Ngole, E; Peeters, Martine; Boesch, Christophe; Pauli, Georg; Ellerbrok, Heinz; Leroy, Eric M

2006-09-01

During the period of December 2004 to January 2005, Bacillus anthracis killed three wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) and one gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) in a tropical forest in Cameroon. While this is the second anthrax outbreak in wild chimpanzees, this is the first case of anthrax in gorillas ever reported. The number of great apes in Central Africa is dramatically declining and the populations are seriously threatened by diseases, mainly Ebola. Nevertheless, a considerable number of deaths cannot be attributed to Ebola virus and remained unexplained. Our results show that diseases other than Ebola may also threaten wild great apes, and indicate that the role of anthrax in great ape mortality may have been underestimated. These results suggest that risk identification, assessment, and management for the survival of the last great apes should be performed with an open mind, since various pathogens with distinct characteristics in epidemiology and pathogenicity may impact the populations. An animal mortality monitoring network covering the entire African tropical forest, with the dual aims of preventing both great ape extinction and human disease outbreaks, will create necessary baseline data for such risk assessments and management plans. Copyright 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Historical carbon footprinting and implications for sustainability planning: a case study of the Pittsburgh region.

PubMed

Hoesly, Rachel; Blackhurst, Mike; Matthews, H Scott; Miller, Jeffrey F; Maples, Amy; Pettit, Matthew; Izard, Catherine; Fischbeck, Paul

2012-04-17

This study estimates fossil-based CO(2) emissions and energy use from 1900-2000 for Allegheny County, PA. Total energy use and emissions increased from 1900 to 1970, reflecting the significant industrial, economic, and population growth that occurred in Allegheny County. From 1970 to 2000, Allegheny County experienced a 30% decrease in total emissions and energy use from peak values, primarily because of a decline in industrial activity (40% decrease in value added) and the loss of a quarter of its population. Despite these dramatic economic and demographic transitions, per capita emissions remained stable from 1970 to 2000, buoyed by relatively stable or slightly increasing emissions in the commercial and transportation sectors. Allegheny County's history suggests the scale of change needed to achieve local emissions reductions may be significant; given years of major technological, economic, and demographic changes, per capita emissions in 1940 were nearly the same in 2000. Most local governments are planning emissions reductions rates that exceed 1% per year, which deviate significantly from historical trends. Our results suggest additional resources and improved planning paradigms are likely necessary to achieve significant emissions reductions, especially for areas where emissions are still increasing.

The Changing Urban Landscape: Interconnections Between Racial/Ethnic Segregation and Exposure in the Study of Race-Specific Violence Over Time

PubMed Central

Stansfield, Richard

2015-01-01

Objectives. We investigated how racial/ethnic shifts in the urban landscape influence race-specific violence by considering changes in the size of the Hispanic population, racial/ethnic contact, and racial segregation patterns. Methods. We used a time-series approach incorporating 4 decennial periods (1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010) to determine whether racial/ethnic demographic changes in 144 US cities influenced White and Black homicide rates. Sources included census and Uniform Crime Reports Supplemental Homicide Report data. Results. The growing diversity in the residential population of US cities contributed to the dramatic decline in homicide rates over time, but the effects differed by racial group. Exposure between Hispanics and Blacks and the growing presence of Hispanics led to a reduced Black homicide trend but had no impact on Whites, after adjustment for economic shifts and other important structural features in US cities. Conclusions. Our research highlights the importance of paying closer attention to exposure and integration between immigrants and existing racial groups. Failure to consider racial/ethnic contact and the racial nature of urban violence may produce misleading results in studies of associations between Hispanic immigration and crime. PMID:26180967

Hungry Horse Dam Fisheries Mitigation : Fish Passage and Habitat Improvement in the Upper Flathead River Basin, 1991-1996 Progress Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knotek, W.Ladd; Deleray, Mark; Marotz, Brian L.

1997-08-01

In the past 50 years, dramatic changes have occurred in the Flathead Lake and River system. Degradation of fishery resources has been evident, in part due to deterioration of aquatic habitat and introduction of non-endemic fish and invertebrate species. Habitat loss has been attributed to many factors including the construction and operation of Hungry Horse Dam, unsound land use practices, urban development, and other anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Fish migration has also been limited by barriers such as dams and impassible culverts. Cumulatively, these factors have contributed to declines in the distribution and abundance of native fish populations. Recovery ofmore » fish populations requires that a watershed approach be developed that incorporates long-term aquatic habitat needs and promotes sound land use practices and cooperation among natural resource management agencies. In this document, the authors (1) describe completed and ongoing habitat improvement and fish passage activities under the Hungry Horse Fisheries Mitigation Program, (2) describe recently identified projects that are in the planning stage, and (3) develop a framework for identifying prioritizing, implementing, and evaluating future fish habitat improvement and passage projects.« less

The Changing Urban Landscape: Interconnections Between Racial/Ethnic Segregation and Exposure in the Study of Race-Specific Violence Over Time.

PubMed

Parker, Karen F; Stansfield, Richard

2015-09-01

We investigated how racial/ethnic shifts in the urban landscape influence race-specific violence by considering changes in the size of the Hispanic population, racial/ethnic contact, and racial segregation patterns. We used a time-series approach incorporating 4 decennial periods (1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010) to determine whether racial/ethnic demographic changes in 144 US cities influenced White and Black homicide rates. Sources included census and Uniform Crime Reports Supplemental Homicide Report data. The growing diversity in the residential population of US cities contributed to the dramatic decline in homicide rates over time, but the effects differed by racial group. Exposure between Hispanics and Blacks and the growing presence of Hispanics led to a reduced Black homicide trend but had no impact on Whites, after adjustment for economic shifts and other important structural features in US cities. Our research highlights the importance of paying closer attention to exposure and integration between immigrants and existing racial groups. Failure to consider racial/ethnic contact and the racial nature of urban violence may produce misleading results in studies of associations between Hispanic immigration and crime.

Skin microbes on frogs prevent morbidity and mortality caused by a lethal skin fungus.

PubMed

Harris, Reid N; Brucker, Robert M; Walke, Jenifer B; Becker, Matthew H; Schwantes, Christian R; Flaherty, Devon C; Lam, Brianna A; Woodhams, Douglas C; Briggs, Cheryl J; Vredenburg, Vance T; Minbiole, Kevin P C

2009-07-01

Emerging infectious diseases threaten human and wildlife populations. Altered ecological interactions between mutualistic microbes and hosts can result in disease, but an understanding of interactions between host, microbes and disease-causing organisms may lead to management strategies to affect disease outcomes. Many amphibian species in relatively pristine habitats are experiencing dramatic population declines and extinctions due to the skin disease chytridiomycosis, which is caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a randomized, replicated experiment, we show that adding an antifungal bacterial species, Janthinobacterium lividum, found on several species of amphibians to the skins of the frog Rana muscosa prevented morbidity and mortality caused by the pathogen. The bacterial species produces the anti-chytrid metabolite violacein, which was found in much higher concentrations on frog skins in the treatments where J. lividum was added. Our results show that cutaneous microbes are a part of amphibians' innate immune system, the microbial community structure on frog skins is a determinant of disease outcome and altering microbial interactions on frog skins can prevent a lethal disease outcome. A bioaugmentation strategy may be an effective management tool to control chytridiomycosis in amphibian survival assurance colonies and in nature.

Effects of shallow natural gas well structures and associated roads on grassland songbird reproductive success in Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Yoo, Jenny; Koper, Nicola

2017-01-01

Grassland songbird populations across North America have experienced dramatic population declines due to habitat loss and degradation. In Canada, energy development continues to fragment and disturb prairie habitat, but effects of oil and gas development on reproductive success of songbirds in North American mixed-grass prairies remains largely unknown. From 2010-2012, in southeastern Alberta, Canada, we monitored 257 nests of two ground-nesting grassland songbird species, Savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis) and chestnut-collared longspur (Calcarius ornatus). Nest locations varied with proximity to and density of conventional shallow gas well structures and associated roads in forty-two 258-ha mixed-grass prairie sites. We estimated the probabilities of nest success and clutch size relative to gas well structures and roads. There was little effect of distance to or density of gas well structure on nest success; however, Savannah sparrow experienced lower nest success near roads. Clutch sizes were lower near gas well structures and cattle water sources. Minimizing habitat disturbance surrounding gas well structures, and reducing abundance of roads and trails, would help minimize impacts on reproductive success for some grassland songbirds.

Population status of Kittlitz's and Marbled Murrelets and surveys for other marine bird and mammal species in the Kenai Fjords area, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Pelt, Thomas I.; Piatt, John F.

2003-01-01

The Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare seabird that nests in alpine terrain and generally forages near tidewater glaciers during the breeding season. More than 95% of the global population breeds in Alaska, with the remainder occurring in the Russian Far East. A global population estimate using best-available data in the early 1990s was 20,000 individuals. However, survey data from two core areas (Prince William Sound and Glacier Bay) suggest that populations have declined by 80-90% during the past 10-20 years. In response to these declines, a coalition of environmental groups petitioned the USFWS in May of 2001 to list the Kittlitz’s murrelet under the Endangered Species Act. In 2002, we began a three-year project to examine population status and trend of Kittlitz’s Murrelets in areas where distribution and abundance are poorly known. Here we report on the first field season, focused on the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. We re-surveyed selected historical transects to evaluate trends, and surveyed new transects for improved population estimation during early July 2002. From a total of 66 Kittlitz’s Murrelets seen on transects, we estimate a total population of 509 Kittlitz’s Murrelets along the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. Comparisons with past surveys suggest a decline of 83% since 1976, with an average rate of decline calculated as–6.9 % per annum. This decline is in agreement with population declines observed elsewhere in the species’ core glaciated range, indicating that steep population declines observed to date are likely to be a range-wide phenomenon. While the focus of the study was Kittlitz’s Murrelets, other species of marine birds and mammals were also surveyed. Populations of the closely related Marbled Murrelet appear to have increased during the same time period. The abundance and distribution of other species are presented in appendices.

Predicting Metapopulation Responses to Conservation in Human-Dominated Landscapes

Treesearch

Zachary S. Ladin; Vincent D' Amico; Jan M. Baetens; Roland R. Roth; W. Gregory Shriver

2016-01-01

Loss of habitat to urbanization is a primary cause of population declines as human-dominated landscapes expand at increasing rates. Understanding how the relative effects of different conservation strategies is important to slow population declines for species in urban landscapes. We studied the wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, a declining forest-...

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations.

PubMed

Mills, Katherine E; Pershing, Andrew J; Sheehan, Timothy F; Mountain, David

2013-10-01

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Steven M.; Bell, Kristen E.; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M.; Donnelly, Maureen A.

2007-01-01

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these “enigmatic” declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by ≈75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks. PMID:17449638

The Northern Bering Sea: An Arctic Ecosystem in Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.

2004-12-01

Arctic systems can be rich and diverse habitats for marine life in spite of the extreme cold environment. Benthic faunal populations and associated biogeochemical cycling processes are influenced by sea-ice extent, seawater hydrography (nutrients, salinity, temperature, currents), and water column production. Benthic organisms on the Arctic shelves and margins are long-term integrators of overlying water column processes. Because these organisms have adapted to living at cold extremes, it is reasonable to expect that these communities will be among the most susceptible to climate warming. Recent observations show that Arctic sea ice in the North American Arctic is melting and retreating northward earlier in the season and the timing of these events can have dramatic impacts on the biological system. Changes in overlying primary production, pelagic-benthic coupling, and benthic production and community structure can have cascading effects to higher trophic levels, particularly benthic feeders such as walruses, gray whales, and diving seaducks. Recent indicators of contemporary Arctic change in the northern Bering Sea include seawater warming and reduction in ice extent that coincide with our time-series studies of benthic clam population declines in the shallow northern Bering shelf in the 1990's. In addition, declines in benthic amphipod populations have also likely influenced the movement of feeding gray whales to areas north of Bering Strait during this same time period. Finally a potential consequence of seawater warming and reduced ice extent in the northern Bering Sea could be the northward movement of bottom feeding fish currently in the southern Bering Sea that prey on benthic fauna. This would increase the feeding pressure on the benthic prey base and enhance competition for this food source for benthic-feeding marine mammals and seabirds. This presentation will outline recent biological changes observed in the northern Bering Sea ecosystem as documented in a 20-yr environmental time-series in the Bering Strait region.

Environmental and Ecological Effects of Climate Change on Venomous Marine and Amphibious Species in the Wilderness.

PubMed

Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy B

2018-06-25

Recent analyses of data show a warming trend in global average air and sea surface ocean temperatures. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, the sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. This article will focus on climate change and projected effects on venomous marine and amphibious creatures with the potential impact on human health. Retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous aquatic and amphibious creatures. Species included venomous jellyfish, poisonous fish, crown-of-thorns starfish, sea snakes, and toxic frogs. In several projected scenarios, rising temperatures, weather extremes, and shifts in seasons will increase poisonous population numbers, particularly with certain marine creatures like jellyfish and crown-of-thorns starfish. Habitat expansions by lionfish and sea snakes are projected to occur. These phenomena, along with increases in human populations and coastal development will likely increase human-animal encounters. Other species, particularly amphibious toxic frogs, are declining rapidly due to their sensitivity to any temperature change or subtle alterations in the stability of their environment. If temperatures continue to rise to record levels over the next decades, it is predicted that the populations of these once plentiful and critically important animals to the aquatic ecosystem will decline and their geographic distributions will shrink. Review of the literature investigating the effect and forecasts of climate change on venomous marine and amphibious creatures has demonstrated that temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms will likely have a dramatic effect on these toxicological organisms. The effects of climate change on these species through temperature alteration and rising coastal waters will influence each species differently and in turn potentially affect commercial industries, travel, tourism, and human health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

PubMed

Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

2015-11-01

Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be expected worldwide, demographic collapse of many other coral populations may soon be widespread. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Globalization and the price decline of illicit drugs.

PubMed

Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

2009-01-01

This study aims at understanding the mechanisms underlying the dramatic decline of the retail prices of major drugs like cocaine and heroin during the past two decades. It also aims at analysing the implications of this decline for drug policies. We use a theoretical model to identify the possible causes of this price decline. This allows us to formulate the hypothesis that the major driving force behind the price decline is a reduction of the intermediation margin (the difference between the retail and producer prices). We also develop the hypothesis that globalization has been an important factor behind the decline of the intermediation margin. We then analyse the statistical information to test these hypotheses. We find that the decline in the retail prices of drugs is related to the strong decline in the intermediation margin in the drug business, and that globalization is the main driving force behind this phenomenon. Globalization has done so by increasing the efficiency of the distribution of drugs, by reducing the risk premium involved in dealing with drugs, and by increasing the degree of competition in the drug markets. We conclude that the cocaine and heroin price declines were due to a sharp fall in the intermediation margin, which was probably influenced by globalization. This phenomenon might have a strong impact on the effectiveness of drug policies, increasing the relative effectiveness of policies aiming at reducing the demand of drugs.

Survival rates of female white-tailed deer on an industrial forest following a decline in population density

Treesearch

Shawn M. Crimmins; John W. Edwards; Patrick D. Keyser; James M. Crum; W. Mark Ford; Brad F. Miller; Tyler A. Campbell; Karl V. Miller

2013-01-01

With white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations at historically high levels throughout many North American forests, many current management activities are aimed at reducing deer populations. However, very little information exists on the ecology of low-density white-tailed deer populations or populations that have declined in density. We...

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2017-01-01

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks.

PubMed

Campbell Grant, Evan H; Nichols, James D; Lowe, Winsor H; Fagan, William F

2010-04-13

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines.

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Grant E.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2010-01-01

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines.

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks

PubMed Central

Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Nichols, James D.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Fagan, William F.

2010-01-01

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines. PMID:20351269

Some socio-economic aspects of population growth in the USSR.

PubMed

Simchera, V

1974-01-01

This summarizes population trends in the U.S.S.R. since the early 19 00's. On August 9, 1973, the population topped 250 million, almost precisely double that of Russia at the time of the 1st general census in 1897. Since 1922 it had increased by more than 84%. Russia has suffered more population loss in wars than any other country in modern times. The First World War, the Civil War, and the Second World War took a toll of more than 30 million, more than 20 million during the Second World War alone. The extent of these loses can be judged from the following: between 1897 and 1913 the population of Russia increased at the rate of 1.55% per annum or 34.6 million; if this had continued the population would have been at least 182.8 million by the end of 1922. As it was, the population was 136.1 million by 1922 and the hypothetical 182.8 million was not reached until 1952. More than 4/5 of today's population have been born since the October Revolution. Only 43 million were born before the revolution and only 7.5 were born in the last century. The economic base has grown much more rapidly than the population. For the period 1940-1972 the population increased 1.27 times, national income 9.51 times, fixed assets, 8.76 times, industrial production, 13.65 times, agricultural output, 2.14 times, and capital investment 14.52 times. The birthrate has been falling since World War 1 but total population growth has increased steadily. Birthrates have declined from 45.5/1000 in 1913 to 17.8/1000 in 1972 and a slight upturn is seen. It is expected that the birthrate will continue to increase slightly, then stabilize. Much of the population increase has come from significantly reduced mortality rates. 1st and 2nd children now account for 71% of all births. Family allowances, child care, free health care, and other social benefits encourage births while high employment levels for women, a shortage of men in the marriageable age ranges, and late marriages tend to depress the birthrate. The shortage of men is directly the result of the losses during World War 2. Employment opportunities have changed dramatically. The country has gone from a primarily agricultural nation to one in which 80% of the people are working class wage or salary earners. The current problem is closing the urban-rural gap and equalizing population density. 3/5 of the people are town-dwellers. To fight declining population in the villages and in the areas of Siberia and the Far East, new towns and new industrial and cultural centers are being established such as Bratsk, Ust-Ilim, Norilsk, and others.

Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2016-06-01

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

Skeletal muscle performance and ageing.

PubMed

Tieland, Michael; Trouwborst, Inez; Clark, Brian C

2018-02-01

The world population is ageing rapidly. As society ages, the incidence of physical limitations is dramatically increasing, which reduces the quality of life and increases healthcare expenditures. In western society, ~30% of the population over 55 years is confronted with moderate or severe physical limitations. These physical limitations increase the risk of falls, institutionalization, co-morbidity, and premature death. An important cause of physical limitations is the age-related loss of skeletal muscle mass, also referred to as sarcopenia. Emerging evidence, however, clearly shows that the decline in skeletal muscle mass is not the sole contributor to the decline in physical performance. For instance, the loss of muscle strength is also a strong contributor to reduced physical performance in the elderly. In addition, there is ample data to suggest that motor coordination, excitation-contraction coupling, skeletal integrity, and other factors related to the nervous, muscular, and skeletal systems are critically important for physical performance in the elderly. To better understand the loss of skeletal muscle performance with ageing, we aim to provide a broad overview on the underlying mechanisms associated with elderly skeletal muscle performance. We start with a system level discussion and continue with a discussion on the influence of lifestyle, biological, and psychosocial factors on elderly skeletal muscle performance. Developing a broad understanding of the many factors affecting elderly skeletal muscle performance has major implications for scientists, clinicians, and health professionals who are developing therapeutic interventions aiming to enhance muscle function and/or prevent mobility and physical limitations and, as such, support healthy ageing. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Society on Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Wasting Disorders.

Tuberculosis in migrants in low-incidence countries: epidemiology and intervention entry points.

PubMed

Lönnroth, K; Mor, Z; Erkens, C; Bruchfeld, J; Nathavitharana, R R; van der Werf, M J; Lange, C

2017-06-01

As tuberculosis (TB) rates continue to decline in native populations in most low TB incidence countries, the proportion of TB patients born outside their country of residence ('foreign-born') increases. Some low-incidence countries have experienced a substantial increase in TB rates related to recent increases in the number of asylum seekers and other migrants from TB-endemic countries. However, average TB rates among the foreign-born in low-incidence countries declined moderately in 2009-2015. TB in foreign-born individuals is commonly the result of reactivation of latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis acquired outside the host country. Transmission is generally low in low-incidence countries, and transmission from migrants to the native population is often modest. Variations in levels and trends in TB notifications among the foreign-born are likely explained by differences and fluctuations in the number and profile of migrants, as well as by variations in TB control, health and social policies in the host countries. To optimise TB care and prevention in migrants from endemic to low-incidence countries, we propose a framework for identifying possible TB care and prevention interventions before, during and after migration. Universal access to high-quality care along the entire migration pathway is critical. Screening for active TB and latent tuberculous infection should be tailored to the TB epidemiology, adapted to the needs of specific migrant groups and linked to treatment. Ultimately, the long-term TB elimination goal can be reached only if global health and socio-economic inequalities are dramatically reduced. Low-incidence countries, most of which are among the wealthiest nations, need to contribute through international assistance.

Some economic consequences of an ageing and declining population in Denmark.

PubMed

Leeson, G W

1983-01-01

Figures for 1981 indicate that Denmark has a fertility level of 1.45 which has been below replacement level since 1968. In that same time period, natural increase has decreased from over 27,000 in 1968 to only 1354 in 1980 and a negative natural increase in 1981 with deaths outnumbering births by 3001. Even during the depression in the 1930's, net population increase was between 6-9/1000 with a fertility level which hovered around replacement level. At that time, the number of females in the childbearing ages was enough to provide population growth, whereas the number is much less today. Population increase is only 0.3/1000. The national population projections for Denmark for 1981-2010 assume an increase in the fertility level from 1.45-1.70 by 1991 after which it remains constant. The number of 20-39 year olds increased steadily until 1945 after which there was a decline as the cohorts from periods with low fertility levels entered this age group, but this was again followed by a steady increase to the present day. The number of females aged 0-39 years is expected to decrease in all age groups to the year 2000. Those aged 40-59 increased in numbers from 1920 to the mid 1960s, since then they have decreased in number, but an increase is forcast for the remainder of the century. The number of elderly females also increased steadily from 1930-80, from about 200,000 to over 550,000; this is expected to continue until 1990 when a short-term decline will set in. Regarding the economic and social consequences of these trends, it is shown that the present decline in fertility has its origins in a period of low unemployment and its negative growth while there was still relatively low unemployment and economic growth. In 1973 the unemployed rate was 0.9% of the work force and this rose to 9.2% in 1981. The Danish population has aged from one with 1/4 million people aged 60 and over at the turn of the century to about 1 million of that age today. Also, the aged themselves have aged so that the number of extreme aged (age 80 and over) has increased from 21,500 to 150,000 between 1901-81. In the last 20 years, elderly mortality, especially that of females, has decreased faster and more substantially than previously experienced and has led to absolute increases in the number of elderly that were unforeseen. From 1901-81, the old-age dependency ratio of those aged 60 and over to those aged 20-59 has almost doubled whereas the youth dependency dropped dramatically. From 1970-71 to 1980 old age pension payments in Denmark have risen from 5.3 billion crowns-17.9 billion, a rise of 13.2%. In the next 20 years the working and retired population will be unaffected by future fertility unless female labor force participation rates respond to changes. Mortality and international migration are the 2 demographic components that can have an effect. It therefore remains that investments in the younger generation are investments in the future.

Continent-wide tracking to determine migratory connectivity and tropical habitat associations of a declining aerial insectivore.

PubMed

Fraser, Kevin C; Stutchbury, Bridget J M; Silverio, Cassandra; Kramer, Patrick M; Barrow, John; Newstead, David; Mickle, Nanette; Cousens, Bruce F; Lee, J Charlene; Morrison, Danielle M; Shaheen, Tim; Mammenga, Paul; Applegate, Kelly; Tautin, John

2012-12-22

North American birds that feed on flying insects are experiencing steep population declines, particularly long-distance migratory populations in the northern breeding range. We determine, for the first time, the level of migratory connectivity across the range of a songbird using direct tracking of individuals, and test whether declining northern populations have higher exposure to agricultural landscapes at their non-breeding grounds in South America. We used light-level geolocators to track purple martins, Progne subis, originating from North American breeding populations, coast-to-coast (n = 95 individuals). We show that breeding populations of the eastern subspecies, P. s. subis, that are separated by ca. 2000 km, nevertheless have almost completely overlapping non-breeding ranges in Brazil. Most (76%) P. s. subis overwintered in northern Brazil near the Amazon River, not in the agricultural landscape of southern Brazil. Individual non-breeding sites had an average of 91 per cent forest and only 4 per cent agricultural ground cover within a 50 km radius, and birds originating from declining northern breeding populations were not more exposed to agricultural landscapes than stable southern breeding populations. Our results show that differences in wintering location and habitat do not explain recent trends in breeding population declines in this species, and instead northern populations may be constrained in their ability to respond to climate change.

Pragmatic perspective on conservation genetics and demographic history of the last surviving population of Kashmir red deer (Cervus elaphus hanglu) in India.

PubMed

Mukesh; Kumar, Ved P; Sharma, Lalit K; Shukla, Malay; Sathyakumar, Sambandam

2015-01-01

The hangul (Cervus elaphus hanglu) is of great conservation concern because it represents the easternmost and only hope for an Asiatic survivor of the red deer species in the Indian subcontinent. Despite the rigorous conservation efforts of the Department of Wildlife Protection in Jammu & Kashmir, the hangul population has experienced a severe decline in numbers and range contraction in the past few decades. The hangul population once abundant in the past has largely become confined to the Dachigam landscape, with a recent population estimate of 218 individuals. We investigated the genetic variability and demographic history of the hangul population and found that it has shown a relatively low diversity estimates when compared to other red deer populations of the world. Neutrality tests, which are used to evaluate demographic effects, did not support population expansion, and the multimodal pattern of mismatch distribution indicated that the hangul population is under demographic equilibrium. Furthermore, the hangul population did not exhibit any signature of bottleneck footprints in the past, and Coalescent Bayesian Skyline plot analysis revealed that the population had not experienced any dramatic changes in the effective population size over the last several thousand years. We observed a strong evidence of sub-structuring in the population, wherein the majority of individuals were assigned to different clusters in Bayesian cluster analysis. Population viability analysis demonstrated insignificant changes in the mean population size, with a positive growth rate projected for the next hundred years. We discuss the phylogenetic status of hangul for the first time among the other red deer subspecies of the world and strongly recommend to upgrade hangul conservation status under IUCN that should be discrete from the other red deer subspecies of the world to draw more conservation attention from national and international bodies.

Status and Conservation of the Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) in Argentina

Treesearch

Adrian S. Di Giacomo; Alejandro G. Di Giacomo; Julio R. Contreras

2005-01-01

It is clear that grassland bird populations have declined significantly during the last 30 years. Declines are widespread in North America, making grassland birds a continental conservation priority. In New England and New York steep population declines for many species warranted listing in many states. Habitat loss through farm abandonment and the subsequent...

Effects of white-nose syndrome on regional population patterns of 3 hibernating bat species.

PubMed

Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

2016-10-01

Hibernating bats have undergone severe recent declines across the eastern United States, but the cause of these regional-scale declines has not been systematically evaluated. We assessed the influence of white-nose syndrome (an emerging bat disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, formerly Geomyces destructans) on large-scale, long-term population patterns in the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), the northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis), and the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). We modeled population trajectories for each species on the basis of an extensive data set of winter hibernacula counts of more than 1 million individual bats from a 4-state region over 13 years and with data on locations of hibernacula and first detections of white-nose syndrome at each hibernaculum. We used generalized additive mixed models to determine population change relative to expectations, that is, how population trajectories differed with a colony's infection status, how trajectories differed with distance from the point of introduction of white-nose syndrome, and whether declines were concordant with first local observation of the disease. Population trajectories in all species met at least one of the 3 expectations, but none met all 3. Our results suggest, therefore, that white-nose syndrome has affected regional populations differently than was previously understood and has not been the sole cause of declines. Specifically, our results suggest that in some areas and species, threats other than white-nose syndrome are also contributing to population declines, declines linked to white-nose syndrome have spread across large geographic areas with unexpected speed, and the disease or other threats led to declines in bat populations for years prior to disease detection. Effective conservation will require further research to mitigate impacts of white-nose syndrome, renewed attention to other threats to bats, and improved surveillance efforts to ensure early detection of white-nose syndrome. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population ecology of insect invasions and their management

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Patrick C. Tobin

2008-01-01

During the establishment phase of a biological invasion, population dynamics are strongly influenced by Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, both of which may lead to extinction of low-density populations. Allee effects refer to a decline in population growth rate with a decline in abundance and can arise from various mechanisms. Strategies to eradicate newly...

Demographics and diaspora, gender and genealogy: anthropological notes on Greek population policy.

PubMed

Paxson, H

1997-01-01

Since World War II, Greece's birth rate has fallen into a worsening decline. With the steady emigration of Greeks throughout the century to North America, Australia, and Germany, Greece has experienced one of the most rapid population declines in Europe. In 1991, the PASOK government convened a special Parliamentary Commission to study the demographic problem and develop recommendations for its resolution. Released in 1993, and comparing Greece's depressed population growth rates with the markedly higher ones of Albania and Turkey, the report argues that the demographic problem is one of national survival because a decline in the population undermines the territorial integrity and national independence of the country. At least half of all pregnancies in Greece end in abortion, and the report attributes 40% of the declining population growth rate to women who have repeat abortions. To confront the population dilemma, Greek officials are downplaying the diaspora and encouraging women at home to produce more babies. Maternal pensions forwarded by the state as family and population policies are being criticized by Athenian women as a means of professionalizing motherhood and perpetuating a limited vision of female adulthood. The author explores why the declining birth rate is considered to be such a problem in Greece, even though the other countries of Europe are also experiencing birth rate declines; why and how women are blamed for the demographic situation; and why the state, despite its vehement rhetoric, has failed to implement a family policy capable of boosting fertility.

Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

PubMed Central

Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

Pesticides and amphibian population declines in California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparling, Donald W.; Fellers, Gary M.; McConnell, Laura L.

2001-01-01

Several species of anuran amphibians have undergone drastic population declines in the western United States over the last 10 to 15 years. In California, the most severe declines are in the Sierra Mountains east of the Central Valley and downwind of the intensely agricultural San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, coastal and more northern populations across from the less agrarian Sacramento Valley are stable or declining less precipitously. In this article, we provide evidence that pesticides are instrumental in declines of these species. Using Hyla regilla as a sentinel species, we found that cholinesterase (ChE) activity in tadpoles was depressed in mountainous areas east of the Central Valley compared with sites along the coast or north of the Valley. Cholinesterase was also lower in areas where ranid population status was poor or moderate compared with areas with good ranid status. Up to 50% of the sampled population in areas with reduced ChE had detectable organophosphorus residues, with concentrations as high as 190 ppb wet weight. In addition, up to 86% of some populations had measurable endosulfan concentrations and 40% had detectable 4,4'- dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene, 4,4'-DDT, and 2,4'-DDT residues.

Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

PubMed

Merrick, T W

1991-04-01

This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.

Large-scale absence of sharks on reefs in the greater-Caribbean: a footprint of human pressures.

PubMed

Ward-Paige, Christine A; Mora, Camilo; Lotze, Heike K; Pattengill-Semmens, Christy; McClenachan, Loren; Arias-Castro, Ery; Myers, Ransom A

2010-08-05

In recent decades, large pelagic and coastal shark populations have declined dramatically with increased fishing; however, the status of sharks in other systems such as coral reefs remains largely unassessed despite a long history of exploitation. Here we explore the contemporary distribution and sighting frequency of sharks on reefs in the greater-Caribbean and assess the possible role of human pressures on observed patterns. We analyzed 76,340 underwater surveys carried out by trained volunteer divers between 1993 and 2008. Surveys were grouped within one km2 cells, which allowed us to determine the contemporary geographical distribution and sighting frequency of sharks. Sighting frequency was calculated as the ratio of surveys with sharks to the total number of surveys in each cell. We compared sighting frequency to the number of people in the cell vicinity and used population viability analyses to assess the effects of exploitation on population trends. Sharks, with the exception of nurse sharks occurred mainly in areas with very low human population or strong fishing regulations and marine conservation. Population viability analysis suggests that exploitation alone could explain the large-scale absence; however, this pattern is likely to be exacerbated by additional anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution and habitat degradation, that also correlate with human population. Human pressures in coastal zones have lead to the broad-scale absence of sharks on reefs in the greater-Caribbean. Preventing further loss of sharks requires urgent management measures to curb fishing mortality and to mitigate other anthropogenic stressors to protect sites where sharks still exist. The fact that sharks still occur in some densely populated areas where strong fishing regulations are in place indicates the possibility of success and encourages the implementation of conservation measures.

Changes in Habitat Structure May Explain Decrease in Reintroduced Mohor Gazelle Population in the Guembeul Fauna Reserve, Senegal

PubMed Central

Moreno, Eulalia; Sane, Abibou; Benzal, Jesús; Ibáñez, Belén; Sanz-Zuasti, Joaquín; Espeso, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Simple Summary The reintroduction of plants and animals to the wild is an important technique to save endangered species from extinction. To perform post release monitoring is crucial to evaluate reintroduction outcomes. A Mohor gazelle reintroduction programme took place in Senegal in 1984. We attempt to explain why the size of the reintroduced gazelle population has diminished in recent years. We suggest that changes in habitat structure occurred over time and have very likely reduced the amount of suitable habitat for this species. Abstract Reintroduction is a widespread method for saving populations of endangered species from extinction. In spite of recent reviews, it is difficult to reach general conclusions about its value as a conservation tool, as authors are reluctant to publish unsuccessful results. The Mohor gazelle is a North African gazelle, extinct in the wild. Eight individuals were reintroduced in Senegal in 1984. The population grew progressively, albeit slowly, during the first 20 years after release, but then declined dramatically, until the population in 2009 was estimated at no more than 13–15 individuals. This study attempts to determine the likelihood of gazelle-habitat relationships to explain why the size of the gazelle population has diminished. Our results show that the Mohor gazelle in Guembeul is found in open habitats with less developed canopy where the grass is shorter, suggesting the possibility that changes in habitat structure have taken place during the time the gazelles have been in the Reserve, reducing the amount of suitable habitat. Reintroduction design usually concentrates on short-term factors that may affect survival of the released animals and their descendants (short-term achievement), while the key factors for assessing its success may be those that affect the long-term evolution of the population. PMID:26487026

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues.

PubMed

Angel, Jacqueline L; Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2016-12-07

Although all nations in the America's face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico's population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world's eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the "demographic dividend" of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Frog decline, frog malformations, and a comparison of frog and human health.

PubMed

Cohen, M M

2001-11-22

The decline in frog populations and the increase in the frequency of frog malformations are discussed. Topics considered for analysis include chytridiomycosis, retinoids, UV-B radiation, chemical contaminants, environmental threats, introduced invasive species and predation, unsustainable use, and enigmatic decline. Care must be taken to distinguish between hypotheses, laboratory experiments, and the findings in feral frog populations. Clearly, the causes of population decline and malformations are heterogeneous. The subject of frogs and humans is addressed under three subheadings: the importance of frogs to human societies, medical implications of frog studies, and a comparison of frog and human disease factors. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The Phantom Collapse of Student Achievement in New York

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cronin, John; Jensen, Nate

2014-01-01

When New York state released the first results of the exams under the Common Core State Standards, many wrongly believed that the results showed dramatic declines in student achievement. A closer look at the results showed that student achievement may have increased. Another lesson from the exams is that states need to closely coordinate new data…

Freeze Frame 2012: A Snapshot of America's Teens

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Alison; Kaye, Kelleen

2012-01-01

When it comes to making decisions about sex, teens today are doing far better than they were 20 years ago. Fewer teens are having sex, and among those who are, more teens are using contraception. The happy result is that teen pregnancy and birth rates have declined dramatically. Despite this extraordinary progress, teen pregnancy and childbearing…

The Case for Neo-Keynesianism: In Defence of the Welfare State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Heertum, Richard

2013-01-01

Neoliberalism is the dominant economic paradigm in the globe today. It has led to stagnant wages, high unemployment, increased income inequality and a decline in quality of life for the average citizen in the industrialised world over the past 30?years. It has also fomented a dramatic increase in economic instability, culminating in the 2007…

World History. Focus on Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caldwell, Jean; Clark, James; Herscher, Walter

This book opens with an exploration of the first economic revolution, which set the stage for the dramatic unfolding of the role economics has played in world history. The lessons focus on two topics: (1) why some economies grew and prospered while others remained stagnant or declined; and (2) what causes people to make choices that help or hinder…

Butternut: An Underused Resource in North America

Treesearch

M. E. Ostry; P. M. Pijut

2000-01-01

Butternut (Juglans cinerea L.) has many fine qualities as a nut species, however, it has never been commercially important. Although the nut is very edible, only a few cultivars have been selected that have desirable nut size and cracking qualities. In the last 20 years there has been a dramatic decline in the number of butternut in native stands...

Understanding Youth STEM Interest Pathways within a Single Community: The "Synergies" Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falk, John H.; Staus, Nancy; Dierking, Lynn D.; Penuel, William; Wyld, Jennifer; Bailey, Deborah

2016-01-01

The dramatic decline in youth interest in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) during adolescence, both in the USA and internationally, has been a phenomenon of societal concern for several decades. The Synergies project was launched to help deal with this issue. In this paper, we report findings from the first two years of our…

More than just timber: silvicultural options and ecosystem services from managed southern pine stands

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg; Jamie L. Schuler; Matthew H Pelkki; D. Andrew Scott; James M. Guldin

2015-01-01

The dramatic decline of timber harvests on public lands in the western United States (U.S.) has helped intensify silviculture in the southern U.S. Today, intensive southern pine management usually involves establishment of plantations using site preparation, genetically improved seedlings, chemical fertilization and competition control, early stand density regulation,...

25+ year changes in forest structure and tree-ring patterns in three old-growth red spruce stands in West Virginia

Treesearch

Eric Heitzman; Sean Doughterty; James Rentch; Steve Adams; Steve. Stephenson

2010-01-01

The extent of red spruce (Picea rubens) forests in West Virginia has dramatically declined from an estimated 1.5 million acres in 1865 to 30,000 acres today because of widespread logging and forest fires during the late 1800s and early 1900s.

Disrupting Law School: How Disruptive Innovation Will Revolutionize the Legal World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pistone, Michele R.; Horn, Michael B.

2016-01-01

Facing dramatic declines in enrollment, revenue, and student quality at the same time that their cost structure continues to rise and public support has waned, law schools are in crisis. A key driver of the crisis is shrinking employment opportunities for recent graduates, which stem in part from the disruption of the traditional business model…

Distribution of longleaf pine in the Southeastern United States and its association with climatic conditions

Treesearch

Zhen Sui; Zhaofei Fan; Michael K. Crosby; Xingang Fan

2015-01-01

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) has irreplaceable ecological value in the southeastern United States. However, longleaf pine-grassland ecosystems have been dramatically declining since European settlement. From the aspect of longleaf pine restoration and management, this study calculated longleaf pine importance values in each southern county and then conducted...

Understory vegetation response after 30 years of interval prescribed burning in two ponderosa pine sites in northern Arizona, USA

Treesearch

Catherine A. Scudieri; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Sally M. Haase; Andrea E. Thode; Stephen S. Sackett

2010-01-01

Southwestern USA ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa C. Lawson var. scopulorum Engelm.) forests evolved with frequent surface fires and have changed dramatically over the last century. Overstory tree density has sharply increased while abundance of understory vegetation has declined primarily due to the near cessation of fires. We...

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS FROM ELECTRICAL GENERATING UNITS IN THE U.S. AND METEOROLOGY

EPA Science Inventory

Nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from electrical generating units (EGUs) in the northeast US have declined dramatically during the past few years as a result of a series of air quality rules (RACT rule, Clean Air Act Amendments Title IV, and the NO_x SIP call)....

Trends in Student Aid, 2016. Trends in Higher Education Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer; Pender, Matea; Welch, Meredith

2016-01-01

Data on student aid for 2015-16 confirm that the dramatic increases in aid awarded in 2009-10 and 2010-11 were products of extreme economic circumstances, not harbingers of long-run changes in financing for postsecondary education. Both total federal education loans and federal loans per full-time equivalent (FTE) student declined for the fifth…

Soaps and Sitcoms as Socialization: The Role of Television in Citizenship Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faichney, Gavin W.

The effect that television programs have on the socialization of children is examined. As traditional sources of socialization have declined, and children's viewing of television has dramatically increased, it is important to consider just what children are learning from television programs about the world and their place in it. A study of the…

New York University's Stern School of Business: A Centennial Retrospective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gitlow, Abraham L.

This volume traces the history of the first hundred years of the Stern School of Business at New York University. Chapter 1 describes the school's original mission and founding. Chapter 2 describes how the school changed and developed as it responded to trends from 1900 to 1950. Chapter 3 explores the school's dramatic decline between 1955 and…

Education, Information, and Smoking Decisions: Evidence from Smoking Histories in the United States, 1940-2000

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Walque, Damien

2010-01-01

This paper tests the hypothesis that education improves health and increases life expectancy. The analysis of smoking histories shows that after 1950, when information about the dangers of tobacco started to diffuse, the prevalence of smoking declined earlier and most dramatically for college graduates. I construct panels based on smoking…

Learning and Adapting for Organisational Change: Researching Union Education in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Tony; Yasukawa, Keiko

2010-01-01

The last quarter century saw a restructuring of employment, production and trade and a dramatic decline in union membership and density levels. There are many explanations for this, including the hostile industrial relations framework imposed by many governments, but there have been other factors such as the growth of new non-unionized industries…

Leading the Newly Consolidated High School: Exciting Opportunity or Overwhelming Challenge?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thurman, Lance E.; Hackmann, Donald G.

2015-01-01

In the current economic times, school personnel are regularly challenged to reduce the costs of operating the nation's school systems. School district consolidations often are proposed as a mechanism to realize fiscal savings for local communities; indeed, the number of U.S. school districts has declined dramatically over the past 70 years,…

The Decline of the Guru: "The Academic Profession in Developing and Middle-Income Countries."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altbach, Philip G., Ed.

Contributions to this collection shed light on the dramatic changes in the academic profession in developing and middle-income countries. The chapters are: (1) "Centers and Peripheries in the Academic Profession: The Special Challenges of Developing Countries" (Philip G. Altbach); (2) "Big City Love: The Academic Workplace in Mexico" (Manuel…

Environmental conditions of 2 river drainages into the Northern Gulf of Mexico during successful hatching of Alabama shad (Alosa alabamae)

Treesearch

Paul F. Mickle; Jacob F. Schaefer; Susan B. Adams; Brian R. Kreiser; Wiliam T. Slack

2016-01-01

In recent years, the Alabama shad (Alosa alabamae) has experienced dramatic declines and extirpations from portions of its native range. Habitat degradation and barriers to migration are considered contributing factors to contraction in the distributional range this species. To identify conditions during successful spawning, river temperatures and...

Population, reproduction and foraging of pigeon guillemots at Naked Island, Alaska, before and after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Bird study number 9. Exxon Valdez oil spill state/federal natural resource damage assessment final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oakley, K.L.; Kuletz, K.J.

1994-01-01

Following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, we studied pigeon guillemots (Cepphus columba) breeding just 30 km from the grounding site. The post-spill population was 43% less than the pre-spill population, but we could not attribute the entire decline to the spill because a decline in the PWS guillemot population may have predated the spill. However, relative declines in the population were greater along oiled shorelines, suggesting that the spill was responsible for some of the decline. The most likely explanation for the few effects observed is that oil was present on the surfacemore » waters of the study area for a relatively short period before the guillemots returned to begin their annual reproductive activities.« less

Bucking the Trend in Wolf-Dog Hybridization: First Evidence from Europe of Hybridization between Female Dogs and Male Wolves

PubMed Central

Hindrikson, Maris; Männil, Peep; Ozolins, Janis; Krzywinski, Andrzej; Saarma, Urmas

2012-01-01

Studies on hybridization have proved critical for understanding key evolutionary processes such as speciation and adaptation. However, from the perspective of conservation, hybridization poses a concern, as it can threaten the integrity and fitness of many wild species, including canids. As a result of habitat fragmentation and extensive hunting pressure, gray wolf (Canis lupus) populations have declined dramatically in Europe and elsewhere during recent centuries. Small and fragmented populations have persisted, but often only in the presence of large numbers of dogs, which increase the potential for hybridization and introgression to deleteriously affect wolf populations. Here, we demonstrate hybridization between wolf and dog populations in Estonia and Latvia, and the role of both genders in the hybridization process, using combined analysis of maternal, paternal and biparental genetic markers. Eight animals exhibiting unusual external characteristics for wolves - six from Estonia and two from Latvia - proved to be wolf-dog hybrids. However, one of the hybridization events was extraordinary. Previous field observations and genetic studies have indicated that mating between wolves and dogs is sexually asymmetrical, occurring predominantly between female wolves and male dogs. While this was also the case among the Estonian hybrids, our data revealed the existence of dog mitochondrial genomes in the Latvian hybrids and, together with Y chromosome and autosomal microsatellite data, thus provided the first evidence from Europe of mating between male wolves and female dogs. We discuss patterns of sexual asymmetry in wolf-dog hybridization. PMID:23056315

Projections of white and black older adults without living kin in the United States, 2015 to 2060.

PubMed

Verdery, Ashton M; Margolis, Rachel

2017-10-17

Close kin provide many important functions as adults age, affecting health, financial well-being, and happiness. Those without kin report higher rates of loneliness and experience elevated risks of chronic illness and nursing facility placement. Historical racial differences and recent shifts in core demographic rates suggest that white and black older adults in the United States may have unequal availability of close kin and that this gap in availability will widen in the coming decades. Whereas prior work explores the changing composition and size of the childless population or those without spouses, here we consider the kinless population of older adults with no living close family members and how this burden is changing for different race and sex groups. Using demographic microsimulation and the United States Census Bureau's recent national projections of core demographic rates by race, we examine two definitions of kinlessness: those without a partner or living children, and those without a partner, children, siblings, or parents. Our results suggest dramatic growth in the size of the kinless population as well as increasing racial disparities in percentages kinless. These conclusions are driven by declines in marriage and are robust to different assumptions about the future trajectory of divorce rates or growth in nonmarital partnerships. Our findings draw attention to the potential expansion of older adult loneliness, which is increasingly considered a threat to population health, and the unequal burden kinlessness may place on black Americans.

Effects of myxoma virus and rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus on the physiological condition of wild European rabbits: Is blood biochemistry a useful monitoring tool?

PubMed

Pacios-Palma, Isabel; Santoro, Simone; Bertó-Moran, Alejandro; Moreno, Sacramento; Rouco, Carlos

2016-12-01

Myxomatosis and rabbit hemorrhagic disease (RHD) are the major viral diseases that affect the wild European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). These diseases arrived in Europe within the last decades and have caused wild rabbit populations to decline dramatically. Both viruses are currently considered to be endemic in the Iberian Peninsula; periodic outbreaks that strongly impact wild populations regularly occur. Myxoma virus (MV) and rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) alter the physiology of infected rabbits, resulting in physical deterioration. Consequently, the persistence and viability of natural populations are affected. The main goal of our study was to determine if blood biochemistry is correlated with serostatus in wild European rabbits. We carried out seven live-trapping sessions in three wild rabbit populations over a two-year period. Blood samples were collected to measure anti-MV and anti-RHDV antibody concentrations and to measure biochemical parameters related to organ function, protein metabolism, and nutritional status. Overall, we found no significant relationships between rabbit serostatus and biochemistry. Our main result was that rabbits that were seropositive for both MV and RHDV had low gamma glutamyltransferase concentrations. Given the robustness of our analyses, the lack of significant relationships may indicate that the biochemical parameters measured are poor proxies for serostatus. Another explanation is that wild rabbits might be producing attenuated physiological responses to these viruses because the latter are now enzootic in the study area. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel observations of larval fire survival, feeding behavior, and host plant use in the regal fritillary, Speyeria idalia (Drury) (Nymphalidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCullough, Kelsey; Albanese, Gene; Haukos, David A.

2017-01-01

Speyeria idalia is a prairie specialist that has experienced dramatic population declines throughout its range. Speyeria idalia is nearly extirpated from the eastern portion of its former range; however, populations within Kansas are relatively stable. We made several previously undescribed field observations of late-instar larvae and post-diapause female S. idalia in northeastern Kansas during 2014–2016. We report finding late-instar larvae at locations that were burned within weeks of detection. The observations of larvae shortly following a burn suggests that S. idalia larvae are capable of surviving fire and contradicts our current knowledge of this species. Additionally, we describe a feeding behavior characteristic of late-instar larvae. Larvae observed in the field and lab stripped leaves of host plants leaving only stems. This strip-style feeding behavior provided unique feeding evidence that was valuable to detecting the presence of larvae in the field. Finally, we documented larvae and post-diapause, egg depositing females using Viola sororia. The use of this relatively widespread and common plant by S. idalia populations in the Central Great Plains has only been implicitly documented but may have important conservation implications. These novel observations further our knowledge of the ecology of this imperiled species and provide timely information that may improve research and conservation management efforts directed toward S. idalia populations.

Bucking the trend in wolf-dog hybridization: first evidence from europe of hybridization between female dogs and male wolves.

PubMed

Hindrikson, Maris; Männil, Peep; Ozolins, Janis; Krzywinski, Andrzej; Saarma, Urmas

2012-01-01

Studies on hybridization have proved critical for understanding key evolutionary processes such as speciation and adaptation. However, from the perspective of conservation, hybridization poses a concern, as it can threaten the integrity and fitness of many wild species, including canids. As a result of habitat fragmentation and extensive hunting pressure, gray wolf (Canis lupus) populations have declined dramatically in Europe and elsewhere during recent centuries. Small and fragmented populations have persisted, but often only in the presence of large numbers of dogs, which increase the potential for hybridization and introgression to deleteriously affect wolf populations. Here, we demonstrate hybridization between wolf and dog populations in Estonia and Latvia, and the role of both genders in the hybridization process, using combined analysis of maternal, paternal and biparental genetic markers. Eight animals exhibiting unusual external characteristics for wolves - six from Estonia and two from Latvia - proved to be wolf-dog hybrids. However, one of the hybridization events was extraordinary. Previous field observations and genetic studies have indicated that mating between wolves and dogs is sexually asymmetrical, occurring predominantly between female wolves and male dogs. While this was also the case among the Estonian hybrids, our data revealed the existence of dog mitochondrial genomes in the Latvian hybrids and, together with Y chromosome and autosomal microsatellite data, thus provided the first evidence from Europe of mating between male wolves and female dogs. We discuss patterns of sexual asymmetry in wolf-dog hybridization.

Evolutionary dynamics and genetic diversity from three genes of Anguillid rhabdovirus.

PubMed

Bellec, Laure; Cabon, Joelle; Bergmann, Sven; de Boisséson, Claire; Engelsma, Marc; Haenen, Olga; Morin, Thierry; Olesen, Niels Jørgen; Schuetze, Heike; Toffan, Anna; Way, Keith; Bigarré, Laurent

2014-11-01

Wild freshwater eel populations have dramatically declined in recent past decades in Europe and America, partially through the impact of several factors including the wide spread of infectious diseases. The anguillid rhabdoviruses eel virus European X (EVEX) and eel virus American (EVA) potentially play a role in this decline, even if their real contribution is still unclear. In this study, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics and genetic diversity of anguiillid rhabdoviruses by analysing sequences from the glycoprotein, nucleoprotein and phosphoprotein (P) genes of 57 viral strains collected from seven countries over 40 years using maximum-likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Phylogenetic trees from the three genes are congruent and allow two monophyletic groups, European and American, to be clearly distinguished. Results of nucleotide substitution rates per site per year indicate that the P gene is expected to evolve most rapidly. The nucleotide diversity observed is low (2-3 %) for the three genes, with a significantly higher variability within the P gene, which encodes multiple proteins from a single genomic RNA sequence, particularly a small C protein. This putative C protein is a potential molecular marker suitable for characterization of distinct genotypes within anguillid rhabdoviruses. This study provides, to our knowledge, the first molecular characterization of EVA, brings new insights to the evolutionary dynamics of two genotypes of Anguillid rhabdovirus, and is a baseline for further investigations on the tracking of its spread.

Acropora corals in Florida: status, trends, conservation, and prospects for recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Margaret W.; Jaap, Walt C.; Chiappone, Mark; Vargas-Angel, Bernardo; Keller, Brian; Aronson, Richard B.; Shinn, Eugene A.; Bruckner, Andrew W.

2003-01-01

Despite representing the northern extent of Acropora spp. in the Caribbean, most of the Florida reef line from Palm Beach through the Keys was built by these species. Climatic factors appear to have bee important agents of Acropora loss within historic (century) time frames. In the recent past (1980-present), available quantitative evidence suggests dramatic declines occurred in A. cervicornis first (late 70's to 84) with collapse of A. palmata occuring later (1981-86). However, recent monitoring studies (1996-2001) show continued decline of remnant populations of A. palmata. Current trends in A. cervicornis in the Florida Keys are hard to assess given its exceedingly low abundance, except in Broward County, FL where recently discovered A. cervicornis thickets are thriving. While the State of Florida recognizes A. palmata and A. cervicornis as endangered species (Deyrup and Franz 1994), this designation carries no management implications. The current management plan of the FKNMS provides many strategies for coral conservation, among them minimizing the threat of vessel groundings and anchor damage, and prohibitions on collection, touching, and damage from fishery and recreational users. Although Acropopra spp. are not explicitly given any special consideration, they are implicitly by Santuary management. Restoration approaches undertaken in the Florida Keys include rescue of fragments damaged by groudings and experimental work to culture broadcast-spawned larvae to re-seed natural substrates. Neither of these efforts have yet realized full success.

Stress and reproductive hormones in grizzly bears reflect nutritional benefits and social consequences of a salmon foraging niche.

PubMed

Bryan, Heather M; Darimont, Chris T; Paquet, Paul C; Wynne-Edwards, Katherine E; Smits, Judit E G

2013-01-01

Physiological indicators of social and nutritional stress can provide insight into the responses of species to changes in food availability. In coastal British Columbia, Canada, grizzly bears evolved with spawning salmon as an abundant but spatially and temporally constrained food source. Recent and dramatic declines in salmon might have negative consequences on bear health and ultimately fitness. To examine broadly the chronic endocrine effects of a salmon niche, we compared cortisol, progesterone, and testosterone levels in hair from salmon-eating bears from coastal BC (n = 75) with the levels in a reference population from interior BC lacking access to salmon (n = 42). As predicted, testosterone was higher in coastal bears of both sexes relative to interior bears, possibly reflecting higher social density on the coast mediated by salmon availability. We also investigated associations between the amount of salmon individual bears consumed (as measured by stable isotope analysis) and cortisol and testosterone in hair. Also as predicted, cortisol decreased with increasing dietary salmon and was higher after a year of low dietary salmon than after a year of high dietary salmon. These findings at two spatial scales suggest that coastal bears might experience nutritional or social stress in response to on-going salmon declines, providing novel insights into the effects of resource availability on fitness-related physiology.

Rapidly increasing methyl mercury in endangered ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) feathers over a 130 year record

PubMed Central

Bond, Alexander L.; Hobson, Keith A.; Branfireun, Brian A.

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is increasing in marine food webs, especially at high latitudes. The bioaccumulation and biomagnification of methyl mercury (MeHg) has serious effects on wildlife, and is most evident in apex predators. The MeHg body burden in birds is the balance of ingestion and excretion, and MeHg in feathers is an effective indicator of overall MeHg burden. Ivory gulls (Pagophila eburnea), which consume ice-associated prey and scavenge marine mammal carcasses, have the highest egg Hg concentrations of any Arctic bird, and the species has declined by more than 80% since the 1980s in Canada. We used feathers from museum specimens from the Canadian Arctic and western Greenland to assess whether exposure to MeHg by ivory gulls increased from 1877 to 2007. Based on constant feather stable-isotope (δ13C, δ15N) values, there was no significant change in ivory gulls' diet over this period, but feather MeHg concentrations increased 45× (from 0.09 to 4.11 µg g−1 in adults). This dramatic change in the absence of a dietary shift is clear evidence of the impact of anthropogenic Hg on this high-latitude threatened species. Bioavailable Hg is expected to increase in the Arctic, raising concern for continued population declines in high-latitude species that are far from sources of environmental contaminants. PMID:25788594

Distribution and spawning dynamics of capelin (Mallotus villosus) in Glacier Bay, Alaska: A cold water refugium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Piatt, John F.; Litzow, Michael A.; Abookire, Alisa A.; Romano, Marc D.; Robards, Martin D.

2008-01-01

Pacific capelin (Mallotus villosus) populations declined dramatically in the Northeastern Pacific following ocean warming after the regime shift of 1977, but little is known about the cause of the decline or the functional relationships between capelin and their environment. We assessed the distribution and abundance of spawning, non-spawning adult and larval capelin in Glacier Bay, an estuarine fjord system in southeastern Alaska. We used principal components analysis to analyze midwater trawl and beach seine data collected between 1999 and 2004 with respect to oceanographic data and other measures of physical habitat including proximity to tidewater glaciers and potential spawning habitat. Both spawning and non-spawning adult Pacific capelin were more likely to occur in areas closest to tidewater glaciers, and those areas were distinguished by lower temperature, higher turbidity, higher dissolved oxygen and lower chlorophyll a levels when compared with other areas of the bay. The distribution of larval Pacific capelin was not sensitive to glacial influence. Pre-spawning females collected farther from tidewater glaciers were at a lower maturity state than those sampled closer to tidewater glaciers, and the geographic variation in the onset of spawning is likely the result of differences in the marine habitat among sub-areas of Glacier Bay. Proximity to cold water in Glacier Bay may have provided a refuge for capelin during the recent warm years in the Gulf of Alaska.

Stress and Reproductive Hormones in Grizzly Bears Reflect Nutritional Benefits and Social Consequences of a Salmon Foraging Niche

PubMed Central

Bryan, Heather M.; Darimont, Chris T.; Paquet, Paul C.; Wynne-Edwards, Katherine E.; Smits, Judit E. G.

2013-01-01

Physiological indicators of social and nutritional stress can provide insight into the responses of species to changes in food availability. In coastal British Columbia, Canada, grizzly bears evolved with spawning salmon as an abundant but spatially and temporally constrained food source. Recent and dramatic declines in salmon might have negative consequences on bear health and ultimately fitness. To examine broadly the chronic endocrine effects of a salmon niche, we compared cortisol, progesterone, and testosterone levels in hair from salmon-eating bears from coastal BC (n = 75) with the levels in a reference population from interior BC lacking access to salmon (n = 42). As predicted, testosterone was higher in coastal bears of both sexes relative to interior bears, possibly reflecting higher social density on the coast mediated by salmon availability. We also investigated associations between the amount of salmon individual bears consumed (as measured by stable isotope analysis) and cortisol and testosterone in hair. Also as predicted, cortisol decreased with increasing dietary salmon and was higher after a year of low dietary salmon than after a year of high dietary salmon. These findings at two spatial scales suggest that coastal bears might experience nutritional or social stress in response to on-going salmon declines, providing novel insights into the effects of resource availability on fitness-related physiology. PMID:24312230

Early impacts of biological control on canopy cover and water use of the invasive saltcedar tree (Tamarix spp.) in western Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pattison, R.R.; D'Antonio, C. M.; Dudley, T.L.; Allander, K.K.; Rice, B.

2011-01-01

The success of biological control programs is rarely assessed beyond population level impacts on the target organism. The question of whether a biological control agent can either partially or completely restore ecosystem services independent of population level control is therefore still open to discussion. Using observational and experimental approaches, we investigated the ability of the saltcedar leaf beetle [Diorhabda carinulata (Brull??) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)] to reduce the water use of saltcedar trees (Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb.) in two sites (Humboldt and Walker Rivers) in Nevada, USA. At these sites D. carinulata defoliated the majority of trees within 25 and 9 km, respectively, of the release location within 3 years. At the Humboldt site, D. carinulata reduced the canopy cover of trees adjacent to the release location by >90%. At a location 4 km away during the first year of defoliation, D. carinulata reduced peak (August) stem water use by 50-70% and stand transpiration (July to late September) by 75% (P = 0. 052). There was, however, no reduction in stem water use and stand transpiration during the second year of defoliation due to reduced beetle abundances at that location. At the Walker site, we measured stand evapotranspiration (ET) in the center of a large saltcedar stand and found that ET was highest immediately prior to D. carinulata arrival, dropped dramatically with defoliation, and remained low through the subsequent 2 years of the study. In contrast, near the perimeter of the stand, D. carinulata did not reduce sap flow, partly because of low rates of defoliation but also because of increased water use per unit leaf area in response to defoliation. Taken together, our results provide evidence that in the early stages of population expansion D. carinulata can lead to substantial declines in saltcedar water use. The extent of these declines varies spatially and temporally and is dependent on saltcedar compensatory responses along with D. carinulata population dynamics and patterns of dispersal. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag (outside the USA).

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

PubMed Central

Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-01-01

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A; van der Linden, Giel T J; Schaminée, Joop H J; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-12-09

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species.

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-01-01

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

Identifying structural elements needed for development of a predictive life-history model for pallid and shovelnose sturgeons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.; Galat, D.L.; Jacobson, R.B.; Simpkins, D.G.; Braaten, P.J.; Korschgen, C.E.; Mac, M.J.

2011-01-01

Intensive management of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers has resulted in dramatic changes to the river systems and their biota. These changes have been implicated in the decline of the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), which has been listed as a United States federal endangered species. The sympatric shovelnose sturgeon (S. platorynchus) is more common and widespread but has also been in decline. The decline of pallid sturgeon is considered symptomatic of poor reproductive success and low or no recruitment. In order to organize information about these species and provide a basis for future development of a predictive model to help guide recovery efforts, we present an expert-vetted, conceptual life-history framework that incorporates the factors that affect reproduction, growth, and survival of shovelnose and pallid sturgeons.

Intravenous injection of pharmaceutical tablets presenting as multiple pulmonary nodules and declining pulmonary function in an adolescent with cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Smith, Kelly J; Elidemir, Okan; Dishop, Megan K; Eldin, Karen W; Tatevian, Nina; Moore, Robert H

2006-09-01

Here we present the unusual case of an adolescent with cystic fibrosis presenting with declining pulmonary function and diffuse micronodular pulmonary disease. This case illustrates the radiographic and pathologic findings associated with the intravenous injection and pulmonary arterial embolization of insoluble pharmaceutical-tablet constituents. The number of first-time users reporting nonmedical use of prescription pain relievers is increasing dramatically, especially in adolescents. Recognition of both the diagnostic imaging features and histologic features on lung biopsy are critical steps for early diagnosis, intervention, and potential prevention of sudden death in these at-risk patients.

A review of the current status of the American shad '(Alosa sapidissima)' in the Susquehanna River. Special report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sidell, B.D.

1979-02-01

During the last two hundred years there has been a dramatic and sustained decline in the American shad fishery of the Susquehanna River. Among the explanations most often advanced for this decline are overfishing, both in the Chesapeake Bay and in the river itself; construction of dams (canal-feeder and hydro-electric) or other obstructions to passage of anadromous fishes; and deleterious effects on water quality caused by mining wastes, sawmill pulp wastes, municipal sewages and increased agricultural activity in the watershed leading to fluctuations in flow characteristis of the river. This report attempts to answer these questions.

Urbanisation and coronary heart disease mortality among African Americans in the US South.

PubMed Central

Barnett, E; Strogatz, D; Armstrong, D; Wing, S

1996-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Despite significant declines since the late 1960s, coronary mortality remains the leading cause of death for African Americans. African Americans in the US South suffer higher rates of cardiovascular disease than African Americans in other regions; yet the mortality experiences of rural-dwelling African Americans, most of whom live in the South, have not been described in detail. This study examined urban-rural differentials in coronary mortality trends among African Americans for the period 1968-86. SETTING: The United States South, comprising 16 states and the District of Columbia. STUDY POPULATION: African American men and women aged 35-74 years. DESIGN: Analysis of urban-rural differentials in temporal trends in coronary mortality for a 19 year study period. All counties in the US South were grouped into five categories: greater metropolitan, lesser metropolitan, adjacent to metropolitan, semirural, and isolated rural. Annual age adjusted mortality rates were calculated for each urban status group. In 1968, observed excesses in coronary mortality were 29% for men and 45% for women, compared with isolated rural areas. Metropolitan areas experienced greater declines in mortality than rural areas, so by 1986 the urban-rural differentials in coronary mortality were 3% for men and 11% for women. CONCLUSIONS: Harsh living conditions in rural areas of the South precluded important coronary risk factors and contributed to lower mortality rates compared with urban areas during the 1960s. The dramatic transformation from an agriculturally based economy to manufacturing and services employment over the course of the study period contributed to improved living conditions which promoted coronary mortality declines in all areas of the South; however, the most favourable economic and mortality trends occurred in metropolitan areas. Images PMID:8935454