Spatial and Temporal Variation of Meteorological Drought in the Parambikulam-Aliyar Basin, Tamil Nadu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manikandan, M.; Tamilmani, D.

2015-09-01

The present study aims to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of meteorological drought in the Parambikulam-Aliyar basin, Tamil Nadu using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought severity. The basin was divided into 97 grid-cells of 5 × 5 km with each grid correspondence to approximately 1.03 % of total area. Monthly rainfall data for the period of 40 years (1972-2011) from 28 rain gauge stations in the basin was spatially interpolated and gridded monthly rainfall was created. Regional representative of SPI values calculated from mean areal rainfall were used to analyse the temporal variation of drought at multiple time scales. Spatial variation of drought was analysed based on highest drought severity derived from the monthly gridded SPI values. Frequency analyse was applied to assess the recurrence pattern of drought severity. The temporal analysis of SPI indicated that moderate, severe and extreme droughts are common in the basin and spatial analysis of drought severity identified the areas most frequently affected by drought. The results of this study can be used for developing drought preparedness plan and formulating mitigation strategies for sustainable water resource management within the basin.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE PAGES

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.; ...

2018-09-01

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought.

PubMed

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J; Lemoine, Nathan P; Mänd, Pille; Kröel-Dulay, György; Schmidt, Inger K; Jentsch, Anke; Stampfli, Andreas; Anderegg, William R L; Bahn, Michael; Kreyling, Juergen; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Lloret, Francisco; Classen, Aimée T; Gough, Christopher M; Smith, Melinda D

2018-04-27

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

2010-12-01

The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

Enhanced Methane Emissions during Amazonian Drought by Biomass Burning

PubMed Central

Ito, Akihiko; Yokota, Tatsuya; Maksyutov, Shamil

2016-01-01

The Amazon is a significant source of atmospheric methane, but little is known about the source response to increasing drought severity and frequency. We investigated satellite observations of atmospheric column-averaged methane for the 2010 drought and subsequent 2011 wet year in the Amazon using an atmospheric inversion scheme. Our analysis indicates an increase in atmospheric methane over the southern Amazon region during the drought, representing an increase in annual emissions relative to the wet year. We attribute the increase to emissions from biomass burning driven by intense drought, combined with carbon monoxide showing seasonal variations corresponding to methane variations. We show that there is probably a strong correspondence between drought and methane emissions in the Amazon. PMID:27851783

Investigating Drought Onset, Termination and Recovery According to Water Quality Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadi, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2016-12-01

Frequency and severity of droughts are increasing globally. Reduced catchment runoff and river flows caused by the meteorological drivers leads to hydrological drought. Hydrological droughts have significant impacts not only on water quantity but also on water quality. In this study, first the onset of historical hydrological droughts is estimated using daily threshold-based indicators. Then drought termination and recovery period in terms of water quantity is analyzed. This is followed by examination of water quality during these detected hydrological droughts. Four water quality parameters, i.e., water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and turbidity are investigated over Willamette river basin located in northwestern Oregon in the United States. Drought vulnerability and resiliency are analyzed for the study period. Droughts and the recovery period are found to have significant impact on water quality parameters. Also, the results indicate a deterioration of water quality during droughts and longer drought recovery if water quality indicators are considered in the analysis.

Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.; Schwabe, K.

2016-12-01

Using state contingent analysis we discuss how and why irrigators adapt to alternative water supply signals. This analysis approach helps to illustrate how and why producers currently use state-general and state-allocable inputs to adapt and respond to known and possible future climatic alternative natures. Focusing on the timing of water allocations, we explore inherent differences in the demand for water by two key irrigation sectors: annual and perennial producers which in Australia have allowed a significant degree of risk-minimisation during droughts. In the absence of land constraints, producers also had a capacity to respond to positive state outcomes and achieve super-normal profits. In the future, however, the probability of positive state outcomes is uncertain; production systems may need to adapt to minimise losses and/or achieve positive returns under altered water supply conditions that may arise as a consequence of more frequent drought states. As such, producers must assess whether altering current input/output choice sets in response to possible future climate states will enhance their long-run competitive advantage for both expected new normal and extreme water supply outcomes. Further, policy supporting agricultural sector climate change resilience must avoid poorly-designed strategies that increase producer vulnerability in the face of drought. Our analysis explores the reliability of alternative water property right bundles and how reduced allocations across time influence alternative responses by producers. We then extend our analysis to explore how management strategies could adapt to two possible future drier state types: i) where an average reduction in water supply is experienced; and ii) where the frequency of droughts increase. The combination of these findings are subsequently used to discuss the role water reform policy has to deal with current and future climate scenarios. We argue current policy strategies could drive producers to more homogeneous production systems over time, which ultimately entail risky adaptation options under future water supply availability or increased drought frequency scenarios. Lastly, our analysis has shown the flexibility of applying SCA toward examining uncertainty surrounding future states of nature under climate change.

Regional analysis and derivation of copula-based drought Severity-Area-Frequency curve in Lake Urmia basin, Iran.

PubMed

Amirataee, Babak; Montaseri, Majid; Rezaie, Hossein

2018-01-15

Droughts are extreme events characterized by temporal duration and spatial large-scale effects. In general, regional droughts are affected by general circulation of the atmosphere (at large-scale) and regional natural factors, including the topography, natural lakes, the position relative to the center and the path of the ocean currents (at small-scale), and they don't cover the exact same effects in a wide area. Therefore, drought Severity-Area-Frequency (S-A-F) curve investigation is an essential task to develop decision making rule for regional drought management. This study developed the copula-based joint probability distribution of drought severity and percent of area under drought across the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. To do this end, one-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values during the 1971-2013 were applied across 24 rainfall stations in the study area. Then, seven copula functions of various families, including Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, Joe, Galambos, Plackett and Normal copulas, were used to model the joint probability distribution of drought severity and drought area. Using AIC, BIC and RMSE criteria, the Frank copula was selected as the most appropriate copula in order to develop the joint probability distribution of severity-percent of area under drought across the study area. Based on the Frank copula, the drought S-A-F curve for the study area was derived. The results indicated that severe/extreme drought and non-drought (wet) behaviors have affected the majority of study areas (Lake Urmia basin). However, the area covered by the specific semi-drought effects is limited and has been subject to significant variations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.; Betancourt, J.L.

2004-01-01

More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999-2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and north-eastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought.

Temporal-spatial evolution of the hydrologic drought characteristics of the karst drainage basins in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhonghua; Liang, Hong; Yang, Chaohui; Huang, Fasu; Zeng, Xinbo

2018-02-01

Hydrologic drought, as a typical natural phenomenon in the context of global climate change, is the extension and development of meteorological and agricultural droughts, and it is an eventual and extreme drought. This study selects 55 hydrological control basins in Southern China as research areas. The study analyzes features, such as intensity and occurrence frequency of hydrologic droughts, and explores the spatial-temporal evolution patterns in the karst drainage basins in Southern China by virtue of Streamflow Drought Index. Results show that (1) the general hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 2010s exhibited ;an upward trend after having experienced a previous decline; in the karst drainage basins in Southern China; the trend was mainly represented by the gradual alleviation of hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 1990s and the gradual aggravation from 2000s to 2010s. (2) The spatial-temporal evolution pattern of occurrence frequency in the karst drainage basins in Southern China was consistent with the intensity of hydrologic droughts. The periods of 1970s and 2010s exhibited the highest occurrence frequency. (3) The karst drainage basins in Southern China experienced extremely complex variability of hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 2010s. Drought intensity and occurrence frequency significantly vary for different types of hydrology.

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable decision making.Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Regional projections, WRF.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER). This analysis was carried out in the ALHAMBRA computer infrastructure at the University of Granada.

Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry-wet changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, D. H.; Wu, D.; Huang, R.; Wang, L. N.; Yang, G. Y.

2013-07-01

Abrupt drought-flood change events caused by atmospheric circulation anomalies have occurred frequently and widely in recent years, which has caused great losses and casualties in China. In this paper, we focus on investigating whether there will be a rainfall occurrence with higher intensity after a drought period in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin. Combined with the Chinese climate divisions and the basin's DEM (digital elevation model), the basin is divided into seven sub-regions by means of cluster analysis of the basin meteorological stations using the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method. Based on the daily precipitation data of 171 stations for the years 1961-2011, the changes of drought times with different magnitudes are analyzed, and the number of consecutive days without precipitation is used to identify the drought magnitudes. The first precipitation intensity after a drought period is analyzed with the Pearson-III frequency curve, then the relationship between rainfall intensity and different drought magnitudes is observed, as are the changes of drought times for different years. The results of the study indicated that the occurrence times of different drought levels show an overall increasing trend; there is no clear interdecadal change shown, but the spatial difference is significant. (2) As the drought level increases, the probability of extraordinary rainstorm becomes lower, and the frequency of occurrence of spatial changes in different precipitation intensities vary. In the areas I and II, as the drought level increases, the occurrence frequency of different precipitation intensities first shows a decreasing trend, which becomes an increasing trend when extraordinary drought occurs. In the area III, IV and V, the probability of the different precipitation intensities shows an overall decreasing trend. The areas VI and VII are located at the mountains with high altitudes where the variation of different precipitation intensities with the increase in drought level is relatively complex. (3) As the drought times increase, areas I, II and V, which are located on the coastal and in the valley or basin, are vulnerable to extreme precipitation processes; areas III, IV, VI and VII are located in the inland area, where heavier precipitation is not likely to occur. (4) The local rainfall affected by multiple factors is closely related with drought occurrence. The characteristics between the first rainfall intensity after a drought period and different drought magnitudes (or drought occurrence times) are preliminarily examined in this paper, but its formation mechanism still requires further research.

Identification of Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) Markers Tightly Associated with Drought Stress Gene in Male Sterile and Fertile Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yuejin; Guo, Lijun; Shu, Zhiming; Sun, Yiyue; Chen, Yuanyuan; Liang, Zongsuo; Guo, Hongbo

2013-01-01

Consistent grain yield in drought environment has attracted wide attention due to global climate change. However, the important drought-related traits/genes in crops have been rarely reported. Many near-isogenic lines (NILs) of male sterile and fertile Salvia miltiorrhiza have been obtained in our previous work through testcross and backcross in continuous field experiments conducted in 2006–2009. Both segregating sterile and fertile populations were subjected to bulked segregant analysis (BSA) and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) with 384 and 170 primer combinations, respectively. One out of 14 AFLP markers (E9/M3246) was identified in treated fertile population as tightly linked to the drought stress gene with a recombination frequency of 6.98% and at a distance of 7.02 cM. One of 15 other markers (E2/M5357) was identified in a treated sterile population that is closely associated with the drought stress gene. It had a recombination frequency of 4.65% and at a distance of 4.66 cM. Interestingly, the E9/M3246 fragment was found to be identical to another AFLP fragment E11/M4208 that was tightly linked to the male sterile gene of S. miltiorrhiza with 95% identity and e-value 4 × 10−93. Blastn analysis suggested that the drought stress gene sequence showed higher identity with nucleotides in Arabidopsis chromosome 1–5. PMID:23525049

Drought susceptibility of modern rice varieties: an effect of linkage of drought tolerance with undesirable traits

PubMed Central

Vikram, Prashant; Swamy, B. P. Mallikarjuna; Dixit, Shalabh; Singh, Renu; Singh, Bikram P.; Miro, Berta; Kohli, Ajay; Henry, Amelia; Singh, N. K.; Kumar, Arvind

2015-01-01

Green Revolution (GR) rice varieties are high yielding but typically drought sensitive. This is partly due to the tight linkage between the loci governing plant height and drought tolerance. This linkage is illustrated here through characterization of qDTY1.1, a QTL for grain yield under drought that co-segregates with the GR gene sd1 for semi-dwarf plant height. We report that the loss of the qDTY1.1 allele during the GR was due to its tight linkage in repulsion with the sd1 allele. Other drought-yield QTLs (qDTY) also showed tight linkage with traits rejected in GR varieties. Genetic diversity analysis for 11 different qDTY regions grouped GR varieties separately from traditional drought-tolerant varieties, and showed lower frequency of drought tolerance alleles. The increased understanding and breaking of the linkage between drought tolerance and undesirable traits has led to the development of high-yielding drought-tolerant dwarf lines with positive qDTY alleles and provides new hope for extending the benefits of the GR to drought-prone rice-growing regions. PMID:26458744

The climatic assessment of droughts in the Republic of Moldova between 1891 and 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potop, Vera

2009-04-01

This study describes the drought episodes in the Republic of Moldova from 18 weather stations and from Chisinau Observatory, with monthly rainfalls measurements obtained during periods of 62 and 116 years, respectively. The catalogue of the droughts for spring, summer and autumn have been identified and elaborated. As a result of the analysis of drought catalogue for a period of over 100 years, an increase in the tendencies of frequency and intensities of the studied phenomena after the 1980s was observed. The longest drought periods were noticed at the beginning of the 1950s and 1960s reaching their highest points in the decades of 1981-1990 and 1991-2001 with the lowest points in the 1970s. Similarly, during the last 20 years, in 12 cases (1986, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007) of drought, 9 have been registered as being of a severe intensity degree and/or the extreme intensity degree. In 1990, 1992, 2003 and 2007 drought season occurred during the entire summer season. If it compare data for the whole period of more than a century, it will see that droughts have occurred once every 3 years, and after the 1980s their frequency has already increased to once every 2 years. Besides, the estimate of the territories affected by drought was made for every season for the first time, as well as for the whole vegetation period of each drought year. Surfer software (by Golden Software Inc.) as tools for estimating spatial lows of distribution drought event in the territory of Moldova it was used. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Research Project MSM-6046070901.

Spatial hydrological drought characteristics in Karkheh River basin, southwest Iran using copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodangeh, Esmaeel; Shahedi, Kaka; Shiau, Jenq-Tzong; MirAkbari, Maryam

2017-08-01

Investigation on drought characteristics such as severity, duration, and frequency is crucial for water resources planning and management in a river basin. While the methodology for multivariate drought frequency analysis is well established by applying the copulas, the estimation on the associated parameters by various parameter estimation methods and the effects on the obtained results have not yet been investigated. This research aims at conducting a comparative analysis between the maximum likelihood parametric and non-parametric method of the Kendall τ estimation method for copulas parameter estimation. The methods were employed to study joint severity-duration probability and recurrence intervals in Karkheh River basin (southwest Iran) which is facing severe water-deficit problems. Daily streamflow data at three hydrological gauging stations (Tang Sazbon, Huleilan and Polchehr) near the Karkheh dam were used to draw flow duration curves (FDC) of these three stations. The Q_{75} index extracted from the FDC were set as threshold level to abstract drought characteristics such as drought duration and severity on the basis of the run theory. Drought duration and severity were separately modeled using the univariate probabilistic distributions and gamma-GEV, LN2-exponential, and LN2-gamma were selected as the best paired drought severity-duration inputs for copulas according to the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square tests. Archimedean Clayton, Frank, and extreme value Gumbel copulas were employed to construct joint cumulative distribution functions (JCDF) of droughts for each station. Frank copula at Tang Sazbon and Gumbel at Huleilan and Polchehr stations were identified as the best copulas based on the performance evaluation criteria including AIC, BIC, log-likelihood and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Based on the RMSE values, nonparametric Kendall-τ is preferred to the parametric maximum likelihood estimation method. The results showed greater drought return periods by the parametric ML method in comparison to the nonparametric Kendall τ estimation method. The results also showed that stations located in tributaries (Huleilan and Polchehr) have close return periods, while the station along the main river (Tang Sazbon) has the smaller return periods for the drought events with identical drought duration and severity.

Drought frequency in central California since 101 B.C. recordered in giant sequoia tree rings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, M.K.; Brown, P.M.

1992-01-01

Well replicated tree-ring width index chronologies have been developed for giant sequoia at three sites in the Sierra Nevada, California. Extreme low-growth events in these chronologies correspond with regional drought events in the twentieth century in the San Joaquin drainage, in which the giant sequoia sites are located. This relationship is based upon comparison of tree-ring indices with August Palmer Drought Severity Indices for California Climate Division 5. Ring-width indices in the lowest decile from each site were compared. The frequency of low-growth events which occurred at all three sites in the same year is reconstructed from 101 B.C. tomore » A.D. 1988. The inferred frequency of severe drought events changes through time, sometimes suddenly. The period from roughly 1850 to 1950 had one of the lowest frequencies of drought of any one hundred year period in the 2089 year record. The twentieth century so far has had a below-average frequency of extreme droughts. 26 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.« less

Assessing extreme droughts in North-East Spain from rogation ceremonies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuadrat, José M.; Barriendos, Mariano; Tejedor, Ernesto; Ángel Saz, Miguel; Serrano, Roberto

2014-05-01

Among the different meteorological hazards, droughts are those with the highest socio-economical impact on the Iberian Peninsula. In the present work, drought events that occurred in North-East Spain during the period 1600-1900 have been analysed, using historical information. The abundant documentation available in historical archives and the detail of the meteorological event records allows us the systematic and continuous summary of the drought events from 16th to 19th centuries. Rogation (ceremonies to ask God for rain: pro-pluvia, or to stop raining: pro-serenitate) analysis is an effective method to derive information about climate extremes from documentary sources. These documents are homogeneous information that permit the reconstruction of drought frequency series and create continuous drought indices. Weighted annual sum by levels has been a widespread technique to analyze such data but this analysis is liable to be biased to spring values as these ceremonies are strongly related to farming activities and crop development. The analysis of the length of pro-pluvia periods (the time span during which rogations are carried out in relation to a drought event) and the combination of annual and seasonal information offers a more objective criterion for the analysis of the drought periods and an increase in the resolution of the study. Two drought maxima appear during the 1650-1675 and 1765-1795 periods, characterized by rogations during almost all the year, with a middle stage (1676-1710) when droughts were less frequent and their length shortened. Results indicate that drought evolution during the past four centuries often coincides in time with the evolution recorded in other Mediterranean areas. Between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries the most important droughts were recorded in the last quarter of the eighteenth century, which coincided with a period of high climatic variability known as the "Maldá" anomaly. In general, the eighteenth century was drier than the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries.

Statistic versus stochastic characterization of persistent droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Perez, J.; Valdes, J. B.

2005-12-01

Droughts are one of more devastating natural disasters. A drought event is always related with deficiency in precipitation over a time period. As longer are the drought periods, larger are the damages associated with, following a potential relationship. Additionally, the extension covered by an event also increases its impact, because it makes difficult to compensate the deficit from neighbourhood water resources. Therefore, the characterization of a drought by its persistent deficit, and the area over which it extends are main points to be carried on. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) provides a statistical characterization of the deficits. Its computation, for different aggregation time scales, allows a persistence evaluation. Another more recent statistic that may be applied in drought characterization is the extreme persistent probability function (e.p.f.), which characterizes the persistence of extreme realizations in a random sequence. This work presents an analysis of the differences in performance of the SPI and the e.p.f. in the statistical characterization of a drought event. The inclusion of the persistency directly in the statistic gives to the e.p.f. an advantage over the SPI. Furthermore, the relationship between the e.p.f. and its mean frequency of recurrence is known. Thus, the e.p.f. may be applied to provide either statistic or stochastic characterization of a drought event. Both criteria were compared, showing that the stochastic characterization produces a better drought indicator. The stochastic characterization using the e.p.f. as a criterion yields the new Drought Frequency Index (DFI). The index is applicable to any random water related variable to identify drought events. Its main advantages over the SPI are the direct inclusion of persistence, and its larger robustness to the time scale. To incorporate the spatial extension in the characterization of a drought event, the new DFI may also be evaluated to characterize the drought spatial-temporal development using DFI-maps. Case studies in Spain and the USA support the advantages of the e.p.f.

Drought Analysis for Kuwait Using Standardized Precipitation Index

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Implementation of adequate measures to assess and monitor droughts is recognized as a major matter challenging researchers involved in water resources management. The objective of this study is to assess the hydrologic drought characteristics from the historical rainfall records of Kuwait with arid environment by employing the criterion of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). A wide range of monthly total precipitation data from January 1967 to December 2009 is used for the assessment. The computation of the SPI series is performed for intermediate- and long-time scales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The drought severity and duration are also estimated. The bivariate probability distribution for these two drought characteristics is constructed by using Clayton copula. It has been shown that the drought SPI series for the time scales examined have no systematic trend component but a seasonal pattern related to rainfall data. The results are used to perform univariate and bivariate frequency analyses for the drought events. The study will help evaluating the risk of future droughts in the region, assessing their consequences on economy, environment, and society, and adopting measures for mitigating the effect of droughts. PMID:25386598

Leaf Hydraulic Vulnerability Triggers the Decline in Stomatal and Mesophyll Conductance during drought in Rice (Oryza sativa).

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoxiao; Du, Tingting; Huang, Jianliang; Peng, Shaobing; Xiong, Dongliang

2018-05-18

Understanding the physiological responses of crops to drought is important for ensuring sustained crop productivity under climate change, which is expected to exacerbate drought frequencies and intensities. Drought responses involve multiple traits, but the correlations between these traits are poorly understood. Using a variety of techniques, we estimated the changes in gas exchange, leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf), and leaf turgor in rice (Oryza sativa) in response to both short- and long-term soil drought and performed a photosynthetic limitation analysis to quantify the contributions of each limiting factor to the resultant overall decrease in photosynthesis during drought. Biomass, leaf area and leaf width significantly decreased during the two-week drought treatment, but leaf mass per area and leaf vein density increased. Light-saturated photosynthetic rate (A) declined dramatically during soil drought, mainly due to the decrease in stomatal conductance (gs) and mesophyll conductance (gm). Stomatal modeling suggested that the decline in Kleaf explained most of the decrease in stomatal closure during the drought treatment, and may also trigger the drought-related decrease of gs and gm. The results of this study provide insight into the regulation of carbon assimilation under drought conditions.

Agrometeorological drought in the Romanian plain within the sector delimited by the valleys of the Olt and Buzău Rivers.

PubMed

Murărescu, Ovidiu; Murătoreanu, George; Frînculeasa, Mădălina

2014-01-01

The last few decades have recorded a high frequency of the meteorological drought phenomenon. Southern and south-eastern Romania make no exception, with such phenomena often occurring from July to November 2011, which brought about an agrometerological drought that lasted from the third decade of July to early December, with a slight improvement in October. This situation led to a decrease in soil water reserves, mainly in the first 20 cm, with a negative impact on agricultural crops and the following agricultural year as well. The methodology was based on a correlative analysis between the decadal rainfall quantities and the existing soil water reserve, during the interval between June and November 2011, for eight weather stations. The statistico-mathematical data analysis showed an intensification of the pedological drought phenomenon in September, with a slight improvement in October and an increase in November.

Tolerance or avoidance: drought frequency determines the response of an N 2 -fixing tree

Treesearch

Jeffrey M. Minucci; Chelcy Ford Miniat; Robert O. Teskey; Nina Wurzburger

2017-01-01

• Climate change is increasing drought frequency, which may affect symbiotic N2 fixation (SNF), a process that facilitates ecosystem recovery from disturbance. Here, we assessed the effect of drought frequency on the ecophysiology and SNF rate of a common N2-fixing tree in eastern US forests.•We grew Robinia pseudoacacia seedlings under the same mean soil...

Future changes to drought characteristics over the Canadian Prairie Provinces based on NARCCAP multi-RCM ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-04-01

This study assesses projected changes to drought characteristics in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the prairie provinces of Canada, using a multi-regional climate model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis II for the 1981-2003 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models for the 1970-1999 and 2041-2070 periods (i.e. eleven current and the same number of corresponding future period simulations). Drought characteristics are extracted using two drought indices, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Regional frequency analysis is used to project changes to selected 20- and 50-year regional return levels of drought characteristics for fifteen homogeneous regions, covering the study area. In addition, multivariate analyses of drought characteristics, derived on the basis of 6-month SPI and SPEI values, are developed using the copula approach for each region. Analysis of multi-RCM ensemble-averaged projected changes to mean and selected return levels of drought characteristics show increases over the southern and south-western parts of the study area. Based on bi- and trivariate joint occurrence probabilities of drought characteristics, the southern regions along with the central regions are found highly drought vulnerable, followed by the southwestern and southeastern regions. Compared to the SPI-based analysis, the results based on SPEI suggest drier conditions over many regions in the future, indicating potential effects of rising temperatures on drought risks. These projections will be useful in the development of appropriate adaptation strategies for the water and agricultural sectors, which play an important role in the economy of the study area.

Hatch plasticity in response to varied inundation frequency in Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Vitek, Christopher J; Livdahl, Todd

2009-07-01

Eggs of container-breeding mosquitoes are able to withstand drought conditions as an egg and hatch when submerged. Frequent rainfall can be simulated by frequent submersion, and drought conditions can be simulated by infrequent submersion. We examined the hatch response of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) eggs to simulated drought conditions. Ae. albopictus eggs from a strain originating outside Kobe, Japan, were subjected to one of three treatments; high-frequency hatch stimulation consisting of submerging the eggs in a nutrient broth mixture every 3 d, low-frequency hatch stimulation consisting of submerging the eggs every 7 d, and delayed high-frequency hatch stimulation. Eggs that were subjected to lower-frequency stimulation showed a significant decrease in hatch delay, which was the opposite of the predicted response. This decrease in hatch delay may be an example of hatch plasticity in response to drought conditions. This response could not be explained as a result of the difference in the ages of the eggs on any given stimulus. A decreased hatch delay response to potential drought conditions combined with rapid larval development may enable Ae. albopictus, whose eggs are not as desiccation resistant as some other container-breeding mosquitoes, to survive extended drought.

Agricultural Drought Transition Periods In the United States Corn Belt Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiraldi, Nicholas J.

Agricultural drought in the U.S. Corn Belt region (CBR) has tremendous global socioeconomic implications. Unfortunately, the weather and climate factors that contribute to transition events toward or away from such droughts, and how well those factors are predicted, are poorly understood. This dissertation focuses on the atmospheric circulation signals associated with agricultural drought transitions periods in the CBR that evolve over 20 and 60 days, and how well those circulation signals are predicted on seasonal to sub-seasonal time scales. Results show that amplification of an intraseasonal Rossby wave train across the Pacific Ocean into North America, which occurs coincident with intraseasonal tropical convection on its equatorward side, triggers these transition events, not shifts in the low frequency base state. This result is confirmed through composite analysis, trajectory analysis and a vertically integrated moisture budget. Trajectory analysis reveals similar source regions for air parcels associated with drought development and breakdown, but with a shift toward more parcels originating over the Gulf of Mexico during transitions away from drought. The primary result from the vertically integrated moisture budget demonstrates that advection and convergence of moisture on intraseasonal time scales dominates during these transitions. The primary conclusion drawn is that weather events are the primary driver of agricultural drought transitions occurring over 20 and 60 days. The seasonal to sub-seasonal hindcast dataset is used to investigate the prediction of the low frequency, intraseasonal and synoptic circulation patterns associated with 20 and 60-day drought transition periods. The forecast models assessed are the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction (ECMWF), National Center for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEP) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Results demonstrate that ECMWF and NCEP are not skillful in predicting the patterns associated with 20-day agricultural drought onset and decay, but have some skill during 60-day agricultural drought onset and decay events at lead F360-F480. BoM was not skillful in predicting the circulation patterns associated with either type of drought transition. Finally, a regression model is used to predict 30-day forward looking standardized precipitation anomalies in the CBR, which leverages lowpass and intraseasonal filtered geopotential height anomalies at 200 hPa as predictors. The statistical model is more skillful than climatology in predicting 1 to 30, through 27 to 57 day standardized precipitation anomalies during July, as measured by root mean square error. The regression model also is skillful in predicting the directional skew (above or below normal) of the forward looking standardized precipitation anomalies.

Does drought legacy alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahn, M.; Hasibeder, R.; Fuchslueger, L.; Ingrisch, J.; Ladreiter-Knauss, T.; Lair, G.; Reinthaler, D.; Richter, A.; Kaufmann, R.

2016-12-01

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, with consequences for the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system. An important implication of increasing drought frequency is that possible legacies of previous droughts may increasingly affect ecosystem responses to new drought events, though this has been rarely tested. Based on a series of severe experimental droughts performed during nine subsequent years on a mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps, we present evidence of effects of drought legacies on the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought and analyse the underlying mechanisms. Both single and recurrent droughts led to increased aboveground productivity during drought recovery relative to control plots, favoring the biomass production and leaf area of grass species more strongly than of forbs. Belowground productivity was significantly increased during recovery. This led to higher total root length, even though specific root length was strongly reduced during recovery, particularly after recurrent drought events. Following rewetting, the temperature dependence of soil respiration was increasingly diminished and the Birch effect declined with progressive recurrence of droughts. This was paralleled by a change in soil aggregate stability and soil porosity in plots repeatedly exposed to drought. Pulse-labelling experiments revealed effects of drought legacy on plant carbon uptake and belowground allocation and altered microbial turnover of recent plant-derived carbon during and after a subsequent drought. Shifts in tissue nitrogen concentration indicate that drought effects on soil nitrogen turnover and availability could play an important role in the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics following both single and recurrent droughts. In conclusion, drought legacies can alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought, the effects increasing with increasing drought frequency and involving changes in both plant functional composition and soil structure and processes.

Does drought legacy alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahn, Michael; Hasibeder, Roland; Fuchslueger, Lucia; Ingrisch, Johannes; Ladreiter-Knauss, Thomas; Lair, Georg; Reinthaler, David; Richter, Andreas; Kaufmann, Rüdiger

2017-04-01

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, with consequences for the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system. An important implication of increasing drought frequency is that possible legacies of previous droughts may increasingly affect ecosystem responses to new drought events, though this has been rarely tested. Based on a series of severe experimental droughts performed during nine subsequent years on a mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps, we present evidence of effects of drought legacies on the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought and analyse the underlying mechanisms. Both single and recurrent droughts led to increased aboveground productivity during drought recovery relative to control plots, favoring the biomass production and leaf area of grass species more strongly than of forbs. Belowground productivity was significantly increased during recovery. This led to higher total root length, even though specific root length was strongly reduced during recovery, particularly after recurrent drought events. Following rewetting, the temperature dependence of soil respiration was increasingly diminished and the Birch effect declined with progressive recurrence of droughts. This was paralleled by a change in soil aggregate stability and soil porosity in plots repeatedly exposed to drought. Isotopic pulse-labelling experiments revealed effects of drought legacy on plant carbon uptake and belowground allocation and altered microbial turnover of recent plant-derived carbon during and after a subsequent drought. Shifts in tissue nitrogen concentration indicate that drought effects on soil nitrogen turnover and availability could play an important role in the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics following both single and recurrent droughts. In conclusion, drought legacies can alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought, the effects increasing with increasing drought frequency and involving changes in both plant functional composition and soil structure and processes.

Synergistic effects of drought stress and photoperiods on phenology and secondary metabolism of Silybum marianum.

PubMed

Zahir, Adnan; Abbasi, Bilal Haider; Adil, Muhammad; Anjum, Sumaira; Zia, Muhammad; Ihsan-Ul-Haq

2014-09-01

Silybum marianum is an important medicinal plant of the family Asteraceae, well known for its set of bioactive isomeric mixture of secondary metabolites "silymarin", primarily acting as a hepato-protective agent. Abiotic stress augments plant secondary metabolism in different plant tissues to withstand harsh environmental fluctuations. In the current study, our aim was to induce drought stress in vitro on S. marianum under the influence of different photoperiod treatments to study the effects, with respect to variations in secondary metabolic profile and plant growth and development. S. marianum was extremely vulnerable to different levels of mannitol-induced drought stress. Water deficiency inhibited root induction completely and retarded plant growth was observed; however, phytochemical analysis revealed enhanced accumulation of total phenolic content (TPC), total flavonoid content (TFC), and total protein content along with several antioxidative enzymes. Secondary metabolic content was positively regulated with increasing degree of drought stress. A dependent correlation of seed germination frequency at mild drought stress and antioxidative activities was established with 2 weeks dark + 2 weeks 16/8 h photoperiod treatment, respectively, whereas a positive correlation existed for TPC and TFC when 4 weeks 16/8 h photoperiod treatment was applied. The effects of drought stress are discussed in relation to phenology, seed germination frequency, biomass build up, antioxidative potential, and secondary metabolites accumulation.

Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

2018-01-01

The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought obtained in this study provide valuable information for water resources planning and drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Eastern China.

Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to largescale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850-2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol.

Variability of runoff-based drought conditions in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.; Austin, Samuel H.

2017-01-01

In this study, a monthly water-balance model is used to simulate monthly runoff for 2109 hydrologic units (HUs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water-years 1901 through 2014. The monthly runoff time series for each HU were smoothed with a 3-month moving average, and then the 3-month moving-average runoff values were converted to percentiles. For each HU, a drought was considered to occur when the HU runoff percentile dropped to the 20th percentile or lower. A drought was considered to end when the HU runoff percentile exceeded the 20th percentile. After identifying drought events for each HU, the frequency and length of drought events were examined. Results indicated that (1) the longest mean drought lengths occur in the eastern CONUS and parts of the Rocky Mountain region and the northwestern CONUS, (2) the frequency of drought is highest in the southwestern and central CONUS, and lowest in the eastern CONUS, the Rocky Mountain region, and the northwestern CONUS, (3) droughts have occurred during all months of the year and there does not appear to be a seasonal pattern to drought occurrence, (4) the variability of precipitation appears to have been the principal climatic factor determining drought, and (5) for most of the CONUS, drought frequency appears to have decreased during the 1901 through 2014 period.

Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragão, Luiz Eduardo O. C.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria; Saatchi, Sassan; Anderson, Liana O.; Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir

2007-04-01

There has been an increasing awareness of the possibility of climate change causing increased drought frequency in Amazonia, with ensuing impacts on ecosystems and human populations. This debate has been brought into focus by the 1997/1998 and 2005 Amazonian droughts. We analysed the spatial extent of these droughts and fire response to the 2005 drought with TRMM and NOAA-12 data, respectively. Both droughts had distinct fingerprints. The 2005 drought was characterized by its intensification throughout the dry season in south-western Amazonia. During 2005 the annual cumulative number of hot pixels in Amazonia increased 33% in relation to the 1999-2005 mean. In the Brazilian state of Acre, at the epicentre of the 2005 drought, the area of leakage forest fires was more than five times greater than the area directly deforested. Fire leakage into flammable forests may be the major agent of biome transformation in the event of increasing drought frequency.

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central Greece. Moreover, remote sensing has proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought monitoring and assessment.

A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

2015-12-01

In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

Determination of droughts and high floods of the Bermejo River (Argentina) based on documentary evidence (17th to 20th century)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieto, M. R.; Rojas, F.

2015-10-01

This study reconstructs a series of droughts and high flow volumes of the Bermejo River from the 17th to 20th century based on a content analysis of historic documentary evidence, which is calibrated with instrumental climate data. The historic data series shows an increase in the frequency of extraordinarily high waters beginning in the 19th century and a significant decrease in extreme droughts beginning in 1890. The data are compared to variations in the Mendoza River for the same period, which show that there was a long-standing lack of correlation between the rivers.

Southern Arizona hydroclimate over the last 3000 years: a comparison of speleothem elemental data and climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, J.; Harrington, M. D.; Cole, J. E.; Drysdale, R.; Woodhead, J. D.; Fasullo, J.; Stevenson, S.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Edwards, R. L.; Henderson, G. M.

2017-12-01

Understanding long-term hydroclimate is particularly important in semiarid regions where prolonged droughts may be exacerbated by a warming climate. In many regions, speleothem trace elements correlate with regional wet and dry climate signals. In the drought-prone Southwestern US (SW), wet and dry episodes are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and teleconnections to remote forcing. Here, we address the need for seasonal moisture reconstructions using paleoclimate and climate model approaches. First, we present a high-resolution (sub-annual) record of speleothem trace elements spanning the last 3000 years from Fort Huachuca Cave, AZ, to investigate the variability of regional seasonal precipitation and sustained regional droughts. In a principal component (PC) analysis of the speleothem, trace elements associated with wet (Sr, Ba) and dry (P, Y, Zn) episodes load strongly and inversely, and the associated PC signals correlate with local gridded precipitation data over the last 50 years (R > 0.6, p < 0.1). These results suggest that the elemental signals provide a seasonal moisture record for Southern Arizona. We use the record to examine the frequency and timing of extreme droughts in the region and compare the speleothem record's frequency domain characteristics with other regional moisture records and with climate model output. The speleothem record demonstrates strong low-frequency variability with pronounced multi-decadal dry periods, a feature notably lacking in drought metrics from simulations of the last millennium. We also examine the seasonal SW precipitation response to modes of climate variability and external forcings, including volcanic eruptions, in both the speleothem record and the Community Earth System Model's Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Notably, ENSO and volcanic forcing have a discernable effect on SW seasonal precipitation in model simulations, particularly when the two processes combine to shift the position of the ITCZ. This integrated analysis of paleodata with climate model results will help us identify and explain discrepancies between these information sources and improve stakeholders' ability to anticipate and prepare for future drought.

Drought Events and Their Impacts on Food Production in New Zealand: Historical Analysis and Outlook Model Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Yin, C.; Urich, P.; Hill, R.

2012-12-01

Given the importance of the primary production sector, climatic conditions have always been a significant driver of food production in New Zealand. The country has experienced a number of severe droughts throughout its history, where a number of extended periods of low rainfall have severely impacted primary production. The characteristics of historical drought and their impacts on the primary production sector are analysed, including the economic losses in the 1998-1999 and 2007-2009 events. We include the analysis of a set of national standardised drought monitoring indices: Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Soil moisture Index (SMI), and Standardised Pasture Growth Index (SPGI). Since the drought events in New Zealand are clearly linked with ENSO, the SST anomalies in the key regions can be good predictors of drought events. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) information processing technics have been applied to build local drought outlook models, the predictors are the SST anomaly of eight key regions that impact New Zealand climate produced by the Climate Forecasting System v2(CFSv2) of NCEP, and the local NIWA derived observed precipitation and soil moisture data. SST is a variable that CFSv2 can forecast with high skill and after bias correction, can be applied as a climate predictor for New Zealand. Inclusion of local data and the persistent nature of drought leads to good predictors therefore one to three month ensemble drought outlooks can be produced for New Zealand. The potential changes of drought intensity and frequency over the medium to long term future are investigated using downscaled data from 12 GCMs and multiple scenarios. The results indicate that New Zealand may experience more severe drought in many areas, therefore adaptation should be planned and implemented.

Hydrologic Drought in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timilsena, J.; Piechota, T.; Hidalgo, H.; Tootle, G.

2004-12-01

This paper focuses on drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) for the last five hundred years and evaluates the magnitude, severity and frequency of the current five-year drought. Hydrologic drought characteristics have been developed using the historical streamflow data and tree ring chronologies in the UCRB. Historical data include the Colorado River at Cisco and Lees Ferry, Green River, Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI), and the Z index. Three ring chronologies were used from 17 spatially representative sites in the UCRB from NOAA's International Tree Ring Data. A PCA based regression model procedures was used to reconstruct drought indices and streamflow in the UCRB. Hydrologic drought is characterized by its duration (duration in year in which cumulative deficit is continuously below thresholds), deficit magnitude (the cumulative deficit below the thresholds for consecutive years), severity (magnitude divided by the duration) and frequency. Results indicate that the current drought ranks anywhere from the 5th to 20th worst drought during the period 1493-2004, depending on the drought indicator and magnitude. From a short term perspective (using annual data), the current drought is more severe than if longer term average (i.e., 5 or 10 year averages) are used to define the drought.

Experimental droughts with rainout shelters: A methodological review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Forecast increases in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts with climate change may have extreme and extensive ecological consequences. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify...

European drought climatologies for the period 1950 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.; Barbosa, Paulo

2014-05-01

In the context of global climate change, characterized in particular by rising temperatures and more extreme weather events, drought is one of the most relevant natural disasters that has hit Europe frequently in the last decades. This paper presents climatologies of a set of drought indicators and derived drought characteristics at European scale for the period 1950-2012. Following the definitions in Spinoni et al. (2013), we computed drought frequency, duration, severity, and maximum intensity on a grid with spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25°. Calculations have been based on three well-known drought indicators calculated for time scales of 3 and 12 months: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Indicators have been calculated on a monthly basis for the period 1951-2012, using statistical distributions fitted to a 30-year baseline period (1971-2000). Input data stem from the E-OBS (version 9.0) European grids (0.25°x0.25°) provided by the Royal Meteorological Service of The Netherlands (KNMI). Monthly precipitation data served as input for all indicators, while mean monthly temperature data were used to calculate Thornthwaite's potential evapotranspiration necessary to calculate SPEI and RDI. On the basis of these indicators, we then quantified, on a monthly basis, the total European area under meteorological drought conditions from 1950 to 2012 and their intensity. We further sub-divided Europe into 14 regions according to geographical borders and climatic features and for each of them we computed linear trends of different drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, duration, severity, and intensity) for the entire period, and for the sub-periods 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. Results show that the Mediterranean, the Balkans, and Eastern Europe are characterized by increasing drought frequency, duration, severity, and maximum intensity, while Russia and Northern Europe are characterized by a decrease, in particular with respect to drought severity. Finally, the most relevant drought events per region are presented. Spinoni J., Naumann G., Carrao, H., Barbosa P., and Vogt J.V. (2013): World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.3875.

Drought Persistence in Models and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

2017-04-01

Many regions of the world have experienced drought events that persisted several years and caused substantial economic and ecological impacts in the 20th century. However, it remains unclear whether there are significant trends in the frequency or severity of these prolonged drought events. In particular, an important issue is linked to systematic biases in the representation of persistent drought events in climate models, which impedes analysis related to the detection and attribution of drought trends. This study assesses drought persistence errors in global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), in the period of 1901-2010. The model simulations are compared with five gridded observational data products. The analysis focuses on two aspects: the identification of systematic biases in the models and the partitioning of the spread of drought-persistence-error into four possible sources of uncertainty: model uncertainty, observation uncertainty, internal climate variability and the estimation error of drought persistence. We use monthly and yearly dry-to-dry transition probabilities as estimates for drought persistence with drought conditions defined as negative precipitation anomalies. For both time scales we find that most model simulations consistently underestimated drought persistence except in a few regions such as India and Eastern South America. Partitioning the spread of the drought-persistence-error shows that at the monthly time scale model uncertainty and observation uncertainty are dominant, while the contribution from internal variability does play a minor role in most cases. At the yearly scale, the spread of the drought-persistence-error is dominated by the estimation error, indicating that the partitioning is not statistically significant, due to a limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current climate models and highlight the main contributors of uncertainty of drought-persistence-error. Future analyses will focus on investigating the temporal propagation of drought persistence to better understand the causes for the identified errors in the representation of drought persistence in state-of-the-art climate models.

Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest carbon loss from dead trees. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of drought impact on forest carbon stocks at the continental level and will provide critical data for future model improvement to better predict the vegetation mortality under droughts.

Economics and societal considerations of drought

Treesearch

Jeff Prestemon; Linda Kruger; Karen L. Abt; Michael Bowker; Consuelo Brandeis; Dave Calkin; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Charlotte Ham; Thomas P. Holmes; Jeffrey Kline; Travis Warziniack

2016-01-01

The economic and social effects of drought are diverse and related to physical characteristics of drought, including spatial extent, severity, duration, and frequency that combine to determine drought’s overall effects on society. Most of the attention given to economic and social impacts of drought focuses on adverse consequences, but technology, public...

Rangeland drought: Effects, restoration, and adaptation [Chap. 8

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch; Rosemary L. Pendleton; Matt C. Reeves; Jeffrey E. Ott; Francis F. Kilkenny; Jack L. Butler; Jacqueline P. Ott; Jeremy R. Pinto; Paulette L. Ford; Justin B. Runyon; Mark A. Rumble; Stanley G. Kitchen

2016-01-01

Drought can have severe impacts on rangeland ecosystems in North America. For the purposes of this chapter, rangelands include natural grasslands, savannas, shrublands, many deserts, tundras, alpine communities, marshes, meadows, and woodlands. Drought impacts vary depending on the severity, frequency, duration, and aerial extent of the drought(s); how the land is...

Ground water level, Water storage, Soil moisture, Precipitation Variability Using Multi Satellite Data during 2003-2016 Associated with California Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. W.; Singh, R. P.

2017-12-01

The agricultural market of California is a multi-billion-dollar industry, however in the recent years, the state is facing severe drought. It is important to have a deeper understanding of how the agriculture is affected by the amount of rainfall as well as the ground conditions in California. We have considered 5 regions (each 2 degree by 2 degree) covering whole of California. Multi satellite (MODIS Terra, GRACE, GLDAS) data through NASA Giovanni portal were used to study long period variability 2003 - 2016 of ground water level and storage, soil moisture, root zone moisture level, precipitation and normalized vegetation index (NDVI) in these 5 regions. Our detailed analysis of these parameters show a strong correlation between the NDVI and some of these parameters. NDVI represents greenness showing strong drought conditions during the period 2011-2016 due to poor rainfall and recharge of ground water in the mid and southern parts of California. Effect of ground water level and underground storage will be also discussed on the frequency of earthquakes in five regions of California. The mid and southern parts of California show increasing frequency of small earthquakes during drought periods.

Evaluation of Drought Occurrence and Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DU, Y.; Chen, J.; Wang, K.; Shi, H.

2015-12-01

This study uses the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model to simulate the hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The observed streamflow data in the Pearl River Basin for the period 1951-2000 are used to evaluate the model simulation results. Further, in this study, the 55 datasets of climate projection from 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the IPCC AR4 (SRES A2/A1B/B1) and AR5 (RCP 2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5) are used to drive the VIC model at 0.5°× 0.5°spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. Then, the monthly Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) are generated to detect the drought occurrence. This study validates the GCMs projection through comparing the observed precipitation for the period of 2000-2013. Then, spatial variation of the frequency change of moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought are analyzed for the 21st century. The study reveals that the frequencies of severe drought and extreme drought occurrences over the Pearl River Basin increase along with time. Specifically, for the scenario of AR5 RCP 8.5, the east and west parts of the Pearl River Basin most likely suffer from severe drought and extreme drought with an increased frequency throughout the 21st century.

Investigating Differences between Modeled Historical and Station Calculated Drought

EPA Science Inventory

With growing concern over increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, there is an imperative need to investigate drought under different future scenarios for the contiguous U.S. To assess future drought relative to a historical baseline, drought occurrence (numbe...

Solar forcing of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands.

PubMed

Hodell, D A; Brenner, M; Curtis, J H; Guilderson, T

2001-05-18

We analyzed lake-sediment cores from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, to reconstruct the climate history of the region over the past 2600 years. Time series analysis of sediment proxies, which are sensitive to the changing ratio of evaporation to precipitation (oxygen isotopes and gypsum precipitation), reveal a recurrent pattern of drought with a dominant periodicity of 208 years. This cycle is similar to the documented 206-year period in records of cosmogenic nuclide production (carbon-14 and beryllium-10) that is thought to reflect variations in solar activity. We conclude that a significant component of century-scale variability in Yucatan droughts is explained by solar forcing. Furthermore, some of the maxima in the 208-year drought cycle correspond with discontinuities in Maya cultural evolution, suggesting that the Maya were affected by these bicentennial oscillations in precipitation.

Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Hansen, J.; Goldberg, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruedy, R.

1990-01-01

The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2018-03-01

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

2017-04-01

Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of an integrated climate adaptation strategy.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of regional drought occurrence in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Su-Bin; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Kim, Do-Woo

2014-07-01

Droughts in the East Asian region (105-150°E, 20-50°N) are quantified using the effective drought index (EDI) over a period of 43 years, from 1962 to 2004, and the East Asian region was classified into six subregions on the basis of similarity in drought climate: (D1) South China; (D2) lower region of the Yangtze River, South Korea, and Central/South Japan; (D3) Central China and North Korea; (D4) Northwest China and middle region of the Yangtze River; (D5) North China; and (D6) Northeast China and North Japan. The EDI time series was then summarized for the different drought subregions and a drought map was created that shows the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional drought occurrence in East Asia. The map shows that in subregions, D1, D2, D3, D4, D5, and D6, there were 50 (11.63 per decade), 36 (8.37 per decade), 30 (6.98 per decade), 28 (6.51 per decade), 29 (6.74 per decade), and 33 (7.67 per decade) drought occurrences, respectively. The most common characteristic of droughts in the subregions is that short-term droughts (<200 days) which mainly occur in spring and summer, whereas long-term droughts (≥200 days) mainly occur in autumn and winter. D1 shows the highest frequency of short-term droughts. Short-term droughts occur more frequently than long-term droughts in D2 and D3, but D4 and D6 showed a higher frequency of long-term droughts than short-term droughts. D5 showed a similar frequency of short- and long-term droughts. Drought onset dates are evenly distributed throughout the year for D1, D2, and D3, but distributed mostly in spring and summer in D4, D5, and D6. All the differences are linked to variations in the precipitation cycle of each subregion. In terms of annual variations in drought occurrence, D2 showed weakening droughts (the annual lowest EDI shows a positive trend), whereas the other subregions showed intensifying droughts (the annual lowest EDI shows a negative trend). The greatest intensifying trend was observed in D5, followed by D3, D6, D4, and D1.

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

PubMed

Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

2014-03-01

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

a New Framework for Characterising Simulated Droughts for Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Rashid, M.; Johnson, F.

2017-12-01

Significant attention has been focussed on metrics for quantifying drought. Lesser attention has been given to the unsuitability of current metrics in quantifying drought in a changing climate due to the clear non-stationarity in potential and actual evapotranspiration well into the future (Asadi-Zarch et al, 2015). This talk presents a new basis for simulating drought designed specifically for use with climate model simulations. Given the known uncertainty of climate model rainfall simulations, along with their inability to represent low-frequency variability attributes, the approach here adopts a predictive model for drought using selected atmospheric indicators. This model is based on a wavelet decomposition of relevant atmospheric predictors to filter out less relevant frequencies and formulate a better characterisation of the drought metric chosen as response. Once ascertained using observed precipication and associated atmospheric variables, these can be formulated from GCM simulations using a multivariate bias correction tool (Mehrotra and Sharma, 2016) that accounts for low-frequency variability, and a regression tool that accounts for nonlinear dependence (Sharma and Mehrotra, 2014). Use of only the relevant frequencies, as well as the corrected representation of cross-variable dependence, allows greater accuracy in characterising observed drought, from GCM simulations. Using simulations from a range of GCMs across Australia, we show here that this new method offers considerable advantages in representing drought compared to traditionally followed alternatives that rely on modelled rainfall instead. Reference:Asadi Zarch, M. A., B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma (2015), Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), Journal of Hydrology, 526, 183-195. Mehrotra, R., and A. Sharma (2016), A Multivariate Quantile-Matching Bias Correction Approach with Auto- and Cross-Dependence across Multiple Time Scales: Implications for Downscaling, Journal of Climate, 29(10), 3519-3539. Sharma, A., and R. Mehrotra (2014), An information theoretic alternative to model a natural system using observational information alone, Water Resources Research, 50, 650-660, doi:10.1002/2013WR013845.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and synoptic characteristics of wet and drought extremes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utkuzova, Dilyara; Khan, Valentina

2015-04-01

Synoptical-statistical analysis has been conducted using SPI index calculated for 478 stations with records from 1966 through 2013. Different parameters of SPI frequency distribution and long-term tendencies were calculated as well as spatial characteristics indicating drought and wetness propagation. Results of analysis demonstrate that during last years there is a tendency of increasing of the intensity of draught and wetness extremes over Russia. There are fewer droughts in the northern regions. The drought propagation for the European territory of Russia is decreasing in June and August, and increasing in July. The situation is opposite for the wetness tendencies. For the Asian territory of Russia, the drought propagation is significantly increasing in July along with decreasing wetness trend. Synoptic conditions favorable for the formation of wet and drought extremes were identified by comparing synoptic charts with the spatial patterns of SPI. For synoptic analysis, episodes of extremely wet (6 episodes for the APR and 7 episodes for the EPR) and drought (6 episodes for the APR and 6 for the EPR) events were classified using A. Katz' typology of weather regimes. For European part of Russia, extreme DROUGHT events are linked to the weather type named "MIXED", for Asian part of Russia - the type "CENTRAL". For European part of Russia, extreme WET events associated with "CENTRAL" type. There is a displacement of the planetary frontal zone into southward direction approximately for 5-25 degrees relatively to normal climatological position during WET extreme events linked to «EASTERN» classification type. Intercomparison of SPI calculated on the base of NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS for the same period and with the resolution 0,5 degree, month precipitation data, Era-Interim Daily fields archive for the period 1979-2014 with the resolution 0,5 degree reanalysis and observational precipitation data was done. The results of comparative analysis has been discussed.

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

2016-04-01

Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

Compound effects of temperature and precipitation in making droughts more frequent in Marathwada, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.; Zachariah, M.; Achutarao, K. M.; Otto, F. E. L.

2017-12-01

The Marathwada region in Maharashtra, India is known to suffer significantly from agrarian crisis including farmer suicides resulting from persistent droughts. Drought monitoring in India is commonly based on univariate indicators that consider the deficiency in precipitation alone. However, droughts may involve complex interplay of multiple physical variables, necessitating an integrated, multivariate approach to analyse their behaviour. In this study, we compare the behaviour of drought characteristics in Marathwada in the recent years as compared to the first half of the twentieth century, using a joint precipitation and temperature-based Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). Drought events in the recent times are found to exhibit exceptional simultaneous anomalies of high temperature and precipitation deficits in this region, though studies on precipitation alone show that these events are within the range of historically observed variability. Additionally, we also develop multivariate copula-based Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) relationships for droughts in this region and compare their natures pre- and post- 1950. Based on multivariate return periods considering both temperature and precipitation anomalies, as well as the severity and duration of droughts, it is found that droughts have become more frequent in the post-1950 period. Based on precipitation alone, such an observation cannot be made. This emphasizes the sensitivity of droughts to temperature and underlines the importance of considering compound effects of temperature and precipitation in order to avoid an underestimation of drought risk. This observation-based analysis is the first step towards investigating the causal mechanisms of droughts, their evolutions and impacts in this region, particularly those influenced by anthropogenic climate change.

A belowground perspective on the drought sensitivity of forests: Towards improved understanding and simulation

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Richard P.; Ibanez, Ines; D’Orangeville, Loic; ...

2016-09-13

Predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts across the temperate biome have highlighted the need to examine the extent to which forests may differ in their sensitivity to water stress. At present, a rich body of literature exists on how leaf- and stem-level physiology influence tree drought responses; however, less is known regarding the dynamic interactions that occur below ground between roots and soil physical and biological factors. Hence, there is a need to better understand how and why processes occurring below ground influence forest sensitivity to drought. Here, we review what is known about tree species’ belowmore » ground strategies for dealing with drought, and how physical and biological characteristics of soils interact with rooting strategies to influence forest sensitivity to drought. Then, we highlight how a below ground perspective of drought can be used in models to reduce uncertainty in predicting the ecosystem consequences of droughts in forests. Lastly, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with managing forests under conditions of increasing drought frequency and intensity, and explain how a below ground perspective on drought may facilitate improved forest management.« less

A belowground perspective on the drought sensitivity of forests: Towards improved understanding and simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, Richard P.; Ibanez, Ines; D’Orangeville, Loic

Predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts across the temperate biome have highlighted the need to examine the extent to which forests may differ in their sensitivity to water stress. At present, a rich body of literature exists on how leaf- and stem-level physiology influence tree drought responses; however, less is known regarding the dynamic interactions that occur below ground between roots and soil physical and biological factors. Hence, there is a need to better understand how and why processes occurring below ground influence forest sensitivity to drought. Here, we review what is known about tree species’ belowmore » ground strategies for dealing with drought, and how physical and biological characteristics of soils interact with rooting strategies to influence forest sensitivity to drought. Then, we highlight how a below ground perspective of drought can be used in models to reduce uncertainty in predicting the ecosystem consequences of droughts in forests. Lastly, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with managing forests under conditions of increasing drought frequency and intensity, and explain how a below ground perspective on drought may facilitate improved forest management.« less

Legacy effects of a regional drought on aboveground net primary production in six central US grasslands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and severity of drought worldwide, directly affecting most ecosystem types. Consequently, drought legacy effects (drought-induced alterations in ecosystem function postdrought) are expected to become more common in ecosystems varying from dese...

Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Y.

2013-12-01

We use proxy data and model data from 1000-yr model simulations with a variety of climate forcings to examine the occurrence of severe events of persistent drought over eastern China during the last millennium and diagnose the mechanisms. Results show that the model was able to simulate many aspects of the low-frequency (periods greater than 10 yr) variations of precipitation over eastern China during the last millennium, including much of the severe persistent droughts such as the 1130s drought, 1200s drought, 1350s drought, 1430s drought, 1480s drought and the drought of the late 1630s-mid 1640s. These six droughts both identified in the proxy data and model data are consistent with each other in terms of drought intensity, duration, and spatial coverage. Our analyses suggest that monsoon circulation can lock into a drought-prone mode that may last for years to decades and supports the suggestion that generally reduced monsoon in East Asia were associated with the land-sea thermal contrast. Study on the wavelet transform and spectral analysis reveals six well-captured events occurred all at the drought stages of statistically significant 15-35 yr time scale. A model data inter-comparison suggests that the solar activity are the primary driver of the 1130s drought, 1350s drought, 1480s drought and the drought of the late 1630s-mid 1640s occurrence, while the drought of 1430s was mainly caused by the internal variability of the climate system. Although the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon variability, a temporally consistent relationship between the droughts and SST pattern in Pacific Oceans could not be found in the model. Our analyses also indicate that large volcanic eruptions play as amplifier in the drought of 1635-1645 and caused the model overestimates the decreasing trends in summer precipitation over eastern China during the mid-1830s and the mid-1960s.

Drought Resilience and Water Conservation Technical Brief

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In many areas of the US, the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events are increasing, this brief highlights EPA drought and conservation activities across the nation and includes links to additional materials and reference documents.

Drought trends based on the VCI and its correlation with climate factors in the agricultural areas of China from 1982 to 2010.

PubMed

Qian, Xiaojin; Liang, Liang; Shen, Qiu; Sun, Qin; Zhang, Lianpeng; Liu, Zhixiao; Zhao, Shuhe; Qin, Zhihao

2016-11-01

Drought is a type of natural disaster that has the most significant impacts on agriculture. Regional drought monitoring based on remote sensing has become popular due to the development of remote sensing technology. In this study, vegetation condition index (VCI) data recorded from 1982 to 2010 in agricultural areas of China were obtained from advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data, and the temporal and spatial variations in each drought were analyzed. The relationships between drought and climate factors were also analyzed. The results showed that from 1982 to 2010, the agricultural areas that experienced frequent and severe droughts were mainly concentrated in the northwestern areas and Huang-Huai Plain. Moreover, the VCI increased in the majority of agricultural areas, indicating that the drought frequency decreased over time, and the decreasing trend in the southern region was more notable than that in the northern region. A correlation analysis showed that temperature and wind velocity were the main factors that influenced drought in the agricultural areas of China. From a regional perspective, excluding precipitation, the climate factors had various effects on drought in different regions. However, the correlation between the VCI and precipitation was low, possibly due to the widespread use of artificial irrigation technology, which reduces the reliance of agricultural areas on precipitation.

When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period.

PubMed

Awange, Joseph L; Mpelasoka, Freddie; Goncalves, Rodrigo M

2016-10-01

To provide information useful in policy formulation and management of drought impacts in Brazil, in this study, a sequence of drought events based on monthly rainfall of 1901-2013 on ~25 km x 25 km grid are derived at 4 timescales that include short-timescales (3-month and 6-month) and medium to long-timescales (12-month and 24-month). Subsequently, probability of drought occurrences, intensity, duration and areal-extent are calculated. The probabilities of occurrence of severe and extreme droughts at short-timescales are 1 in 12 and 1 in 66 years, respectively, all over the country. At medium to long-timescales, the probability of severe droughts is about 1 in 20 years in northern Brazil, and 1 in 10 years in the south. The probabilities of extreme droughts are 1 in 9 and 1 in 12 years over northern Brazil and in the south, respectively. In general, no evidence of significant (α =0.05) trend is detected in drought frequency, intensity, and duration over the last 11 decades (since 1901) at all the 4 timescales. The drought areal-extent show increasing trends of 3.4%/decade over Brazil for both 3-month and 6-month timescales. However, the trend increases for the 12-month and 24-month timescales are relatively smaller, i.e., 2.4%/decade and 0.5%/decade, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coping with droughts and floods: A Case study of Kanyemba, Mbire District, Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bola, G.; Mabiza, C.; Goldin, J.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Makurira, H.; Mashauri, D.

Most of Southern Africa is affected by extreme weather events, droughts and floods being the most common. The frequency of floods and droughts in Southern Africa in general, of which the Zambezi River Basin is part of, has been linked to climate change. Droughts and floods impact on the natural environment, and directly and indirectly impact on livelihoods. In the Middle Zambezi River Basin, which is located between Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, extreme weather events are exacerbated by human activities, in particular the operation of both the Kariba and the Cahora Bassa reservoirs. To understand better, whether, and in what ways extreme weather events impact on livelihoods, this study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods to analyse rainfall variability and coping strategies used by households in the river basin. Data collection was done using semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and structured questionnaires which were administered to 144 households. An analysis of rainfall variability and Cahora Bassa water level over 23 years was carried out. The study found that perceptions of households were that average rainfall has decreased over the years, and dry-spells have become more frequent. Furthermore, households perceived flood events to have increased over the last two decades. However, the analysis of rainfall variability revealed that the average rainfall received between 1988 and 2011 had not changed but the frequency of dry-spells and floods had increased. The occurrence of floods in the study area was found to be linked to heavy local rain and backflow from Cahora Bassa dam. The study found that households adopted a number of strategies to cope with droughts and floods, such as vegetable farming and crop production in the floodplain, taking on local jobs that brought in wages, planting late and livestock disposals. Some households also resorted to out-migration on a daily basis to Zambia or Mozambique. The study concluded that coping mechanisms were found to be inflexible and poorly suited to adapt to floods and droughts. The study recommends the implementation of adaptation measures such as the cultivation of drought-resistant crop varieties, irrigation and off-farm employment opportunities.

Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia

2017-04-01

The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining vegetation and hydro-meteorological drought indices for the assessment of cereal yield. Moreover, the present study will provide some guidance on user's decision making process in agricultural practices in the IP, assisting farmers in deciding whether to purchase crop insurance. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project IMDROFLOOD (WaterJPI/0004/2014). Ana Russo thanks FCT for granted support (SFRH/BPD/99757/2014). Andreia Ribeiro also thanks FCT for grant PD/BD/114481/2016.

A Refined Crop Drought Monitoring Method Based on the Chinese GF-1 Wide Field View Data

PubMed Central

Chang, Sheng; Wu, Bingfang; Yan, Nana; Zhu, Jianjun; Wen, Qi; Xu, Feng

2018-01-01

In this study, modified perpendicular drought index (MPDI) models based on the red-near infrared spectral space are established for the first time through the analysis of the spectral characteristics of GF-1 wide field view (WFV) data, with a high spatial resolution of 16 m and the highest frequency as high as once every 4 days. GF-1 data was from the Chinese-made, new-generation high-resolution GF-1 remote sensing satellites. Soil-type spatial data are introduced for simulating soil lines in different soil types for reducing errors of using same soil line. Multiple vegetation indices are employed to analyze the response to the MPDI models. Relative soil moisture content (RSMC) and precipitation data acquired at selected stations are used to optimize the drought models, and the best one is the Two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2)-based MPDI model. The crop area that was statistically significantly affected by drought from a local governmental department, and used for validation. High correlations and small differences in drought-affected crop area was detected between the field observation data from the local governmental department and the EVI2-based MPDI results. The percentage of bias is between −21.8% and 14.7% in five sub-areas, with an accuracy above 95% when evaluating the performance via the data for the whole study region. Generally the proposed EVI2-based MPDI for GF-1 WFV data has great potential for reliably monitoring crop drought at a relatively high frequency and spatial scale. Currently there is almost no drought model based on GF-1 data, a full exploitation of the advantages of GF-1 satellite data and further improvement of the capacity to observe ground surface objects can provide high temporal and spatial resolution data source for refined monitoring of crop droughts. PMID:29690639

A Refined Crop Drought Monitoring Method Based on the Chinese GF-1 Wide Field View Data.

PubMed

Chang, Sheng; Wu, Bingfang; Yan, Nana; Zhu, Jianjun; Wen, Qi; Xu, Feng

2018-04-23

In this study, modified perpendicular drought index (MPDI) models based on the red-near infrared spectral space are established for the first time through the analysis of the spectral characteristics of GF-1 wide field view (WFV) data, with a high spatial resolution of 16 m and the highest frequency as high as once every 4 days. GF-1 data was from the Chinese-made, new-generation high-resolution GF-1 remote sensing satellites. Soil-type spatial data are introduced for simulating soil lines in different soil types for reducing errors of using same soil line. Multiple vegetation indices are employed to analyze the response to the MPDI models. Relative soil moisture content (RSMC) and precipitation data acquired at selected stations are used to optimize the drought models, and the best one is the Two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2)-based MPDI model. The crop area that was statistically significantly affected by drought from a local governmental department, and used for validation. High correlations and small differences in drought-affected crop area was detected between the field observation data from the local governmental department and the EVI2-based MPDI results. The percentage of bias is between −21.8% and 14.7% in five sub-areas, with an accuracy above 95% when evaluating the performance via the data for the whole study region. Generally the proposed EVI2-based MPDI for GF-1 WFV data has great potential for reliably monitoring crop drought at a relatively high frequency and spatial scale. Currently there is almost no drought model based on GF-1 data, a full exploitation of the advantages of GF-1 satellite data and further improvement of the capacity to observe ground surface objects can provide high temporal and spatial resolution data source for refined monitoring of crop droughts.

Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model.

PubMed

Trinh, T; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Ercan, A; Carr, K

2017-05-15

Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to the extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by the development of a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic framework based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections based on four emission scenarios to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model (Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model; WEHY-HCM) to generate thirteen equally likely future water supply projections. The water supply projections were compared to the current water demand for the detection of drought events and estimation of drought properties. The procedure was applied to Shasta Dam watershed to analyze drought conditions at the watershed outlet, Shasta Dam. The results suggest an increasing water scarcity at Shasta Dam with more severe and longer future drought events in some future scenarios. An important advantage of the proposed approach to the probabilistic analysis of future droughts is that it provides the drought properties of the 100-year and 200-year return periods without resorting to any extrapolation of the frequency curve. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future impacts of global warming and reforestation on drought patterns over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.

2017-07-01

This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8-12°N, 20°W-20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031-2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1-2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1-2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa.

A Global Drought Observatory for Emergency Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Jürgen; de Jager, Alfred; Carrão, Hugo; Magni, Diego; Mazzeschi, Marco; Barbosa, Paulo

2016-04-01

Droughts are occurring on all continents and across all climates. While in developed countries they cause significant economic and environmental damages, in less developed countries they may cause major humanitarian catastrophes. The magnitude of the problem and the expected increase in drought frequency, extent and severity in many, often highly vulnerable regions of the world demand a change from the current reactive, crisis-management approach towards a more pro-active, risk management approach. Such approach needs adequate and timely information from global to local scales as well as adequate drought management plans. Drought information systems are important for continuous monitoring and forecasting of the situation in order to provide timely information on developing drought events and their potential impacts. Against this background, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing a Global Drought Observatory (GDO) for the European Commission's humanitarian services, providing up-to-date information on droughts world-wide and their potential impacts. Drought monitoring is achieved by a combination of meteorological and biophysical indicators, while the societal vulnerability to droughts is assessed through the targeted analysis of a series of social, economic and infrastructural indicators. The combination of the information on the occurrence and severity of a drought, on the assets at risk and on the societal vulnerability in the drought affected areas results in a likelihood of impact, which is expressed by a Likelihood of Drought Impact (LDI) indicator. The location, extent and magnitude of the LDI is then further analyzed against the number of people and land use/land cover types affected in order to provide the decision bodies with information on the potential humanitarian and economic bearings in the affected countries or regions. All information is presented through web-mapping interfaces based on OGC standards and customized reports can be drawn by the user. The system will be further developed by increasing the number of sectorial impact indicators and validated against known and documented cases around the world. The poster will provide an overview on the system, the LDI and first analysis results.

[Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. V. Seasonal drought characteristics division and assessment in southern China].

PubMed

Huang, Wan-Hua; Sui, Yue; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Dai, Shu-Wei; Li, Mao-Song

2013-10-01

Zoning seasonal drought based on the study of drought characteristics can provide theoretical basis for formulating drought mitigation plans and improving disaster reduction technologies in different arid zones under global climate change. Based on the National standard of meteorological drought indices and agricultural drought indices and the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the climatic background and distribution characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China, and made a three-level division of seasonal drought in this region by the methods of combining comprehensive factors and main factors, stepwise screening indices, comprehensive disaster analysis, and clustering analysis. The first-level division was with the annual aridity index and seasonal aridity index as the main indices and with the precipitation during entire year and main crop growing season as the auxiliary indices, dividing the southern China into four primary zones, including semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and super-humid zone. On this basis, the four primary zones were subdivided into nine second-level zones, including one semi-arid area-temperate-cold semi-arid hilly area in Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, three sub-humid areas of warm sub-humid area in the north of the Yangtze River, warm-tropical sub-humid area in South China, and temperate-cold sub-humid plateau area in Southwest China, three humid areas of temperate-tropical humid area in the Yangtze River Basin, warm-tropical humid area in South China, and warm humid hilly area in Southwest China, and two super-humid areas of warm-tropical super-humid area in South China and temperate-cold super-humid hilly area in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China. According to the frequency and intensity of multiple drought indices, the second-level zones were further divided into 29 third-level zones. The distribution of each seasonal drought zone was illustrated, and the zonal drought characteristics and their impacts on the agricultural production were assessed. Accordingly, the drought prevention measures were proposed.

Linking events, science and media for flood and drought management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, M.; Wei, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhao, Y.

2017-12-01

Throughout history, floods and droughts have been closely related to the development of human riparian civilization. The socio-economic damage caused by floods/droughts appears to be on the rise and the frequency of floods/droughts increases due to global climate change. In this paper, we take a fresh perspective to examine the (dis)connection between events (floods and droughts), research papers and media reports in globally 42 river basins between 1990 and 2012 for better solutions in floods and droughts management. We collected hydrological data from NOAA/ESPL Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), all relevant scientific papers from Web of Science (WOS) and media records from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the study period, presented the temporal variability at annual level of these three groups of data, and analysed the (connection) among these three groups of data in typical river basins. We found that 1) the number of flood related reports on both media and research is much more than those on droughts; 2) the concerns of media reports just focused on partial topics (death, severity and damage) and partial catchments (Mediterranean Sea and Nile River); 3) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within some river basins such as Nile River Basin, Parana River Basin, Savannah River Basin and Murray-Darling River Basin; 4) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within only a few of disciplines such as Geology, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Agriculture, Engineering and Forestry. It is recommended that multiple disciplinary contribution and collaboration should be promoted to achieve comprehensive flood/drought management, and science and media should interactively play their valuable roles and in flood/drought issues. Keywords: Floods, droughts, events, science, media, flood and drought management

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and vulnerability and presented in the same way as the vulnerability, as a GIS-based map. Risk maps show geographic regions in Slovenia where droughts pose a major threat to the agriculture and together with the vulnerability maps provide the basis for drought management, in particular for the appropriate mitigation and response actions in specific regions. The developed methodology is expected to be applied to the entire region of South-Eastern Europe within the initiative of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe.

An improved method for standardized mapping of drought conditions

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith; John W. Coulston

2013-01-01

Virtually all U.S. forests experience droughts, although the intensity and frequency of the droughts vary widely between, as well as, within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Generally, forests throughout the Western United States are subject to annual seasonal droughts, while forests in the Eastern United States can be characterized by one of two...

Recent drought conditions in the Conterminous United States

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith; John W. Coulston

2013-01-01

Droughts are common in virtually all U.S. forests, but their frequency and intensity vary widely both between and within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Forests in the Western United States generally exhibit a pattern of annual seasonal droughts. Forests in the Eastern United States tend to exhibit one of two prevailing patterns: random occasional droughts...

The SPEIbase: a new gridded product for the analysis of drought variability and drought impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begueria-Portugues, S.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; López-Moreno, J. I.; Angulo-Martínez, M.; El Kenawy, A.

2010-09-01

Recently a new drought indicator, the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), has been proposed to quantify the drought condition over a given area. The SPEI considers not only precipitation but also evapotranspiration (PET) data on its calculation, allowing for a more complete approach to explore the effects of climate change on drought conditions. The SPEI can be calculated at several time scales to adapt to the characteristic times of response to drought of target natural and economic systems, allowing determining their resistance to drought. Following the formulation of the SPEI a global dataset, the SPEIbase, has been made available to the scientific community. The dataset covers the period 1901-2006 with a monthly frequency, and offers global coverage at a 0.5 degrees resolution. The dataset consists on the monthly values of the SPEI at the time scales from 1 to 48 months. A description of the data and metadata, and links to download the files, are provided at http://sac.csic.es/spei. On this communication we will detail the methodology for computing the SPEI and the characteristics of the SPEIbase. A thorough discussion of the SPEI index, and some examples of use, will be provided in a companion comunication.

Global resistance and resilience of primary production following extreme drought are predicted by mean annual precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuart-Haëntjens, E. J.; De Boeck, H. J.; Lemoine, N. P.; Gough, C. M.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Mänd, P.; Jentsch, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Bahn, M.; Lloret, F.; Kreyling, J.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Stampfli, A.; Anderegg, W.; Classen, A. T.; Smith, M. D.

2017-12-01

Extreme drought is increasing globally in frequency and intensity, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of key ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change in primary production following extreme climate, and resilience, the degree to which primary production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring global patterns of resistance and resilience to extreme drought. Past syntheses on resistance have focused climatic gradients or individual ecosystem types, without assessing interactions between the two. Theory and many empirical studies suggest that forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought, though some empirical studies reveal that these trends are not universal. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis of sixty-four grassland and forest sites, finding that primary production resistance to extreme drought is predicted by a common continuum of mean annual precipitation (MAP). However, grasslands and forests exhibit divergent production resilience relationships with MAP. We discuss the likely mechanisms underlying the mixed production resistance and resilience patterns of forests and grasslands, including different plant species turnover times and drought adaptive strategies. These findings demonstrate the primary production responses of forests and grasslands to extreme drought are mixed, with far-reaching implications for Earth System Models, ecosystem management, and future studies of extreme drought resistance and resilience.

Droughts and water scarcity: facing challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, Luis S.

2014-05-01

Water scarcity characterizes large portions of the world, particularly the Mediterranean area. It is due to natural causes - climate aridity, which is permanent, and droughts, that are temporary - and to human causes - long term desertification and short term water shortages. Droughts aggravate water scarcity. Knowledge has well developed relative to all processes but management tools still are insufficient as well as the tools required to support appropriate planning and management. Particularly, new approaches on tools for assessing related impacts in agriculture and other economic and social activities are required. Droughts occur in all climates but their characteristics largely differ among regions both in terms frequency, duration and intensity. Research has already produced a large number of tools that allow appropriate monitoring of droughts occurrence and intensity, including dynamics of drought occurrence and time evolution. Advances in drought prediction already are available but we still are far from knowing when a drought will start, how it will evolve and when it dissipates. New developments using teleconnections and GCM are being considered. Climate change is a fact. Are droughts occurrence and severity changing with global change? Opinions are divided about this subject since driving factors and processes are varied and tools for the corresponding analysis are also various. Particularly, weather data series are often too short for obtaining appropriate answers. In a domain where research is producing improved knowledge and innovative approaches, research faces however a variety of challenges. The main ones, dealt in this keynote, refer to concepts and definitions, use of monitoring indices, prediction of drought initiation and evolution, improved assessment of drought impacts, and possible influence of climate change on drought occurrence and severity.

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

DOE PAGES

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; ...

2017-11-17

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlingsmore » of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7–9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.« less

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.

2017-11-01

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlingsmore » of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P . ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occurs, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.« less

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlingsmore » of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7–9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.« less

Drought and flood effects on macrobenthic communities in the estuary of Australia's largest river system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittmann, Sabine; Baring, Ryan; Baggalley, Stephanie; Cantin, Agnes; Earl, Jason; Gannon, Ruan; Keuning, Justine; Mayo, Angela; Navong, Nathavong; Nelson, Matt; Noble, Warwick; Ramsdale, Tanith

2015-11-01

Estuaries are prone to drought and flood events, which can vary in frequency and intensity depending on water management and climate change. We investigated effects of two different drought and flow situations, including a four year long drought (referred to as Millennium drought) and a major flood event, on the macrobenthic community in the estuary and coastal lagoon of the Murray Mouth and Coorong, where freshwater inflows are strictly regulated. The analysis is based on ten years of annual monitoring of benthic communities and environmental conditions in sediment and water. The objectives were to identify changes in diversity, abundance, biomass and distribution, as well as community shifts and environmental drivers for the respective responses. The Millennium drought led to decreased taxonomic richness, abundance and biomass of macrobenthos as hypersaline conditions developed and water levels dropped. More taxa were found under very high salinities than predicted from the Remane diagram. When a flood event broke the Millennium drought, recovery took longer than from a shorter drought followed by small flows. A flow index was developed to assess the biological response subject to the duration of the preceding drought and flow volumes. The index showed higher taxonomic richness, abundance and biomass at intermediate and more continuous flow conditions. Abundance increased quickly after flows were restored, but the benthic community was initially composed of small bodied organisms and biomass increased only after several years once larger organisms became more abundant. Individual densities and constancy of distribution dropped during the drought for almost all macrobenthic taxa, but recoveries after the flood were taxon specific. Distinct benthic communities were detected over time before and after the drought and flood events, and spatially, as the benthic community in the hypersaline Coorong was split off with a salinity threshold of 64 identified by LINKTREE analysis. Salinity, low dissolved oxygen saturation and sediment properties accounted for further community splits in the estuarine Murray Mouth. This long term monitoring revealed ecological benefits of intermediate and continuous flow and that resilience of estuarine macrobenthos to drought and flood events was affected by flow history. The index can be applied to other flow regulated estuaries and inform environmental watering targets.

Causes of Long-Term Drought in the United States Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J.; Pegion, Philip J.; Koster, Randal

2002-01-01

The United States Great Plains (USGP) experienced a number of multi-year droughts during the last century, most notably the droughts of the 1930s and 1950s. This study examines the causes of such droughts using ensembles of long term (1930-1999) simulations carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show that the model produces long-term (multi-year) variations in the USGP precipitation that are similar to those observed. A correlative analysis suggests that the ensemble mean low frequency (time scales longer than about 6 years) rainfall variations in the USGP are linked to a pan-Pacific pattern of SST variability that is the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) in the low frequency SST data. The link between the SST and the Great Plains precipitation is confirmed in idealized AGCM simulations, in which the model is forced by the 2 polarities of the pan-Pacific SST pattern. The idealized simulations further show that it is primarily the tropical part of the SST anomalies that influence the USGP. As such, the USGP tend to have above normal precipitation when the tropical Pacific SSTs are above normal, while there is a tendency for drought when the tropical SSTs are cold. The upper tropospheric response to the pan-Pacific SST EOF shows a global-scale pattern with a strong wave response in the Pacific and a substantial zonally-symmetric component in which USGP pluvial (drought) conditions are associated with reduced (enhanced) heights throughout the extra-tropics. The potential predictability of rainfall in the USGP associated with SSTs is rather modest, with on average about 1/3 of the total low frequency rainfall variance forced by SST anomalies. Further idealized experiments with climatological SST, suggest that the remaining low frequency variance in the USGP precipitation is the result of interactions with soil moisture. In particular, simulations with soil moisture feedback show a six-fold increase in the variance in annual USGP precipitation compared with simulations in which the soil feedback is excluded. In addition to increasing variance, the interactions with the soil introduce year-to-year memory in the hydrological cycle that is consistent with a red noise process, in which the low frequencies in the deep soil are the result of integrating a net forcing (precipitation-evaporation-runoff) that is white noise on interannual time scales. As such, the role of low frequency SST variability is to introduce a bias to the net forcing on the soil moisture that drives the random process preferentially to either wet or dry conditions.

Chapter4 - Drought patterns in the conterminous United States and Hawaii.

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith; John W. Coulston

2014-01-01

Droughts are common in virtually all U.S. forests, but their frequency and intensity vary widely both between and within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Forests in the Western United States generally exhibit a pattern of annual seasonal droughts. Forests in the Eastern United States tend to exhibit one of two prevailing patterns: random occasional droughts...

Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. D.; Schlaepfer, D. R.; Bradford, J. B.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Duniway, M. C.; Hall, S. A.; Jamiyansharav, K.; Jia, G.; Lkhagva, A.; Munson, S. M.; Pyke, D. A.; Tietjen, B.

2018-03-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses and shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake, and transpiration. We modeled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30 year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site-determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally increased biomass (i.e., the effects of invasions that increase community biomass or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought in both current and future climates.

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

PubMed

Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

2016-06-05

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest

PubMed Central

Power, M. J.; Whitney, B. S.; Mayle, F. E.; Neves, D. M.; de Boer, E. J.; Maclean, K. S.

2016-01-01

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216522

Risk to Drought in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magana, V.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the major meteorological hazards in Mexico given the semiarid and arid conditions in most of its territory. The recent drought event between 2011 and 2013 led to one of the major socioeconomic and environmental crisis in recent years in relation to water deficit mainly in northern Mexico. But the impacts of meteorological droughts are not only related to precipitation deficit, but to the water crisis context in which the climatic anomaly occurs. In other words, the drought hazard occurs in a vulnerability context that results in risks at levels that translate into hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic droughts. The dynamics of prolonged droughts in Mexico has been studied in relation to low frequency oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans (Méndez and Magaña 2010). On the other hand, the vulnerability to drought has been characterized by means of socioeconomic and physical indicators that reflect the dynamical and multifactorial characteristics of this element (Neri and Magaña 2016). The combination of hazard and vulnerability led to an estimate of risk to drought that explains the drought impacts in recent years. The Mexican government has developed a national strategy to prevent or at least ameliorate the impacts of droughts by establishing the National Program against Drought (PRONACOSE) for each one of the thirteen hydrologic administrative regions that compose the Mexican territory. The main idea behind PRONACOSE is to respond to drought as it reaches a higher level of intensity. Some of the protocols in PRONACOSE are based on a risk analysis and proposals by water stakeholders. It is found that PRONACOSE could better work if a risk management preventive scheme is implemented making use of the knowledge on the predictability of drought in Mexico on various time scales. The examples of potential risk to drought management schemes in Mexico for some of the hydrologic administrative regions are presented.

Management Options During the 2011-2012 Drought on the Apalachicola River: A Systems Dynamic Model Evaluation.

PubMed

Leitman, S; Pine, W E; Kiker, G

2016-08-01

The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin (ACF) is a large watershed in the southeastern United States. In 2012, the basin experienced the second year of a severe drought and the third multi-year drought in the last 15 years. During severe droughts, low reservoir and river levels can cause economic and ecological impacts to the reservoir, river, and estuarine ecosystems. During drought, augmenting Apalachicola River discharge through upstream reservoir releases and demand management are intuitive and often-suggested solutions to minimizing downstream effects. We assessed whether the existing reservoir system could be operated to minimize drought impacts on downstream water users and ecosystems through flow augmentation. Our analysis finds that in extreme drought such as observed during 2012, increases in water releases from reservoir storage are insufficient to even increase Apalachicola River discharge to levels observed in the 2007 drought. This suggests that there is simply not enough water available in managed storage to offset extreme drought events. Because drought frequency and intensity is predicted to increase under a variety of climate forecasts, our results demonstrate the need for a critical assessment of how water managers will meet increasing water demands in the ACF. Key uncertainties that should be addressed include (1) identifying the factors that led to extremely low Flint River discharge in 2012, and (2) determining how water "saved" via demand management is allocated to storage or passed to downstream ecosystem needs as part of the ongoing revisions to the ACF Water Control Manual by the US Army Corps of Engineers.

Management Options During the 2011-2012 Drought on the Apalachicola River: A Systems Dynamic Model Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leitman, S.; Pine, W. E.; Kiker, G.

2016-08-01

The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin (ACF) is a large watershed in the southeastern United States. In 2012, the basin experienced the second year of a severe drought and the third multi-year drought in the last 15 years. During severe droughts, low reservoir and river levels can cause economic and ecological impacts to the reservoir, river, and estuarine ecosystems. During drought, augmenting Apalachicola River discharge through upstream reservoir releases and demand management are intuitive and often-suggested solutions to minimizing downstream effects. We assessed whether the existing reservoir system could be operated to minimize drought impacts on downstream water users and ecosystems through flow augmentation. Our analysis finds that in extreme drought such as observed during 2012, increases in water releases from reservoir storage are insufficient to even increase Apalachicola River discharge to levels observed in the 2007 drought. This suggests that there is simply not enough water available in managed storage to offset extreme drought events. Because drought frequency and intensity is predicted to increase under a variety of climate forecasts, our results demonstrate the need for a critical assessment of how water managers will meet increasing water demands in the ACF. Key uncertainties that should be addressed include (1) identifying the factors that led to extremely low Flint River discharge in 2012, and (2) determining how water "saved" via demand management is allocated to storage or passed to downstream ecosystem needs as part of the ongoing revisions to the ACF Water Control Manual by the US Army Corps of Engineers.

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon.

PubMed

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E; Padoch, Christine

2012-12-26

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes.

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon

PubMed Central

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S.; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E.; Padoch, Christine

2012-01-01

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes. PMID:23236144

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Zhang, Miao; Wang, Linying; Zhou, Tian

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961-2010) of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118-262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21-99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982-2010) hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11-26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly incorporated by the hydrological post-processing, while the difference between the two predictions decreases. This suggests that human interventions can outweigh the climate variability for the hydrological drought forecasting in the Anthropocene, and the predictability for human interventions needs more attention.

Spatio-temporal trends of drought by forest type in the conterminous United States, 1960-2013

Treesearch

Matthew P. Peters; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews

2014-01-01

Droughts are common in virtually all U.S. forests, but their frequency and intensity vary within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Accounting for the long-term influence of droughts within a region is difficult due to variations in the spatial extent and intensities over a period. Therefore, we created a cumulative drought severity index (CDSI) (Fig. 1) for...

A multi-proxy reconstruction of millennial scale drought history for Northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macdonald, Dr; Chiverrell, Dr; Hind, Ms; Todd, Ms; Charman, Dr

2012-04-01

Drought is one of the major natural hazards experienced worldwide; they are complex with both causes and multifaceted impacts poorly understood. Few studies of drought events from a long-term perspective have been undertaken in the UK. This presents problems in determining important drought characteristics such as duration, frequency and severity. In order to undertake robust drought analyses reliable long-term data are required. Historical records have long been recognised as valuable data sources within historical climatology; however, the application of historical records in drought analysis is in its infancy, with few historical studies considering drought. This paper presents a reconstruction of drought events for NW England, from around AD 1000 to 2009, drawing upon instrumental, historical and sedimentary records. The drought record is extended to a millennial timescale by coupling the long, continuous instrumental meteorological records available for this area since the late 18th century, with descriptive historical accounts of droughts (since c.AD 1600) and a sedimentary peat sequences from an ombrotrophic mire (Butterburn Flow), where a water table variation history has been inferred from sub-fossil testate amoebae. The testate amoebae analyses were undertaken at 3mm sampling resolution, providing a sub-decadal (2-5 year) sample resolution. Calibration of the sedimentary sequences to the instrument series over the last c.250 years, coupled with chronological control provided by air fall pollutants (Pb and Zn) histories and radiocarbon dating, reveals a detailed millennial drought-dry phase history. The results identify a number of severe droughts - dry phases that have been of longer duration and of greater severity than the 1976 drought, the most memorable drought in living memory in the UK. The results of this work illustrate that current water resource management plans within the UK would struggle to maintain potable water supplies, indicating the need for greater resilience within current water management plans.

A Remotely Sensed Global Terrestrial Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Q.; Zhao, M.; Kimball, J. S.; McDowell, N. G.; Running, S. W.

2012-12-01

Regional drought and flooding from extreme climatic events are increasing in frequency and severity, with significant adverse eco-social impacts. Detecting and monitoring drought at regional to global scales remains challenging, despite the availability of various drought indices and widespread availability of potentially synergistic global satellite observational records. We developed a method to generate a near-real-time remotely sensed Drought Severity Index (DSI) to monitor and detect drought globally at 1-km spatial resolution and regular 8-day, monthly and annual frequencies. The new DSI integrates and exploits information from current operational satellite based terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) and Vegetation greenness Index (NDVI) products, which are sensitive to vegetation water stress. Specifically, our approach determines the annual DSI departure from its normal (2000-2011) using the remotely sensed ratio of ET to potential ET (PET) and NDVI. The DSI results were derived globally and captured documented major regional droughts over the last decade, including severe events in Europe (2003), the Amazon (2005 and 2010), and Russia (2010). The DSI corresponded favorably (r=0.43) with the precipitation based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), while both indices captured similar wetting and drying patterns. The DSI was also correlated with satellite based vegetation net primary production (NPP) records, indicating that the combined use of these products may be useful for assessing water supply and ecosystem interactions, including drought impacts on crop yields and forest productivity. The remotely-sensed global terrestrial DSI enhances capabilities for near-real-time drought monitoring to assist decision makers in regional drought assessment and mitigation efforts, and without many of the constraints of more traditional drought monitoring methods.

Grassland Resistance and Resilience after Drought Depends on Management Intensity and Species Richness

PubMed Central

Vogel, Anja; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Weigelt, Alexandra

2012-01-01

The degree to which biodiversity may promote the stability of grasslands in the light of climatic variability, such as prolonged summer drought, has attracted considerable interest. Studies so far yielded inconsistent results and in addition, the effect of different grassland management practices on their response to drought remains an open question. We experimentally combined the manipulation of prolonged summer drought (sheltered vs. unsheltered sites), plant species loss (6 levels of 60 down to 1 species) and management intensity (4 levels varying in mowing frequency and amount of fertilizer application). Stability was measured as resistance and resilience of aboveground biomass production in grasslands against decreased summer precipitation, where resistance is the difference between drought treatments directly after drought induction and resilience is the difference between drought treatments in spring of the following year. We hypothesized that (i) management intensification amplifies biomass decrease under drought, (ii) resistance decreases with increasing species richness and with management intensification and (iii) resilience increases with increasing species richness and with management intensification. We found that resistance and resilience of grasslands to summer drought are highly dependent on management intensity and partly on species richness. Frequent mowing reduced the resistance of grasslands against drought and increasing species richness decreased resistance in one of our two study years. Resilience was positively related to species richness only under the highest management treatment. We conclude that low mowing frequency is more important for high resistance against drought than species richness. Nevertheless, species richness increased aboveground productivity in all management treatments both under drought and ambient conditions and should therefore be maintained under future climates. PMID:22615865

The Sahel Region of West Africa: Examples of Climate Analyses Motivated By Drought Management Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndiaye, O.; Ward, M. N.; Siebert, A. B.

2011-12-01

The Sahel is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world. This paper focuses on climate sources of drought, and some new analyses mostly driven by users needing climate information to help in drought management strategies. The Sahel region of West Africa is a transition zone between equatorial climate and vegetation to the south, and desert to the north. The climatology of the region is dominated by dry conditions for most of the year, with a single peak in rainfall during boreal summer. The seasonal rainfall total contains both interannual variability and substantial decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV). This brings climate analysis and drought management challenges across this range of timescales. The decline in rainfall from the wet decades of the 1950s and 60s to the dry decades of the 1970s and 80s has been well documented. In recent years, a moderate recovery has emerged, with seasonal totals in the period 1994-2010 significantly higher than the average rainfall 1970-1993. These MDV rainfall fluctuations have expression in large-scale sea-surface temperature fluctuations in all ocean basins, placing the changes in drought frequency within broader ocean-atmosphere climate fluctuation. We have evaluated the changing character of low seasonal rainfall total event frequencies in the Sahel region 1950-2010, highlighting the role of changes in the mean, variance and distribution shape of seasonal rainfall totals as the climate has shifted through the three observed phases. We also consider the extent to which updating climate normals in real-time can damp the bias in expected event frequency, an important issue for the feasibility of index insurance as a drought management tool in the presence of a changing climate. On the interannual timescale, a key factor long discussed for agriculture is the character of rainfall onset. An extended dry spell often occurs early in the rainy season before the crop is fully established, and this often leads to crop failure. This can be viewed as a special case of agricultural drought. Therefore, improving climate information around the time of planting can play a key role in agricultural risk management. Rainfall onset indices have been calculated for stations across Senegal. The problem is climatically challenging because the physical processes that impact rainfall onset appear to span aspects normally studied separately: weather system character, propagating intraseasonal features, and large-scale sea-surface temperature influence. We present aspects of all these, and ideas on how to combine them into seamless information to support agriculture.

The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we present a methodology for analyzing the economic benefits in the U.S. of changes in drought frequency and severity due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We construct reduced-form models of the effect of drought on agriculture and reservoir recreation i...

Characterizing changes in drought risk for the United States from climate change

EPA Science Inventory

The effect of climate change on the frequency and intensity of droughts across the contiguous United States over the next century is assessed by applying Standardized Precipitation Indices and the Palmer Drought Severity Index to the full suite of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Cl...

Multi-index evaluation of future drought and climate extreme occurrence in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the frequency and occurrence of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential for managing natural resources and setting policy. This study aims to identify future patterns of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts based on projection from 12 GCM ...

Variation in Ecophysiological Traits and Drought Tolerance of Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Seedlings from Different Populations

PubMed Central

Cocozza, Claudia; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, L'ubica; Marino, Stefano; Maiuro, Lucia; Alvino, Arturo; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Bolte, Andreas; Tognetti, Roberto

2016-01-01

Frequency and intensity of heat waves and drought events are expected to increase in Europe due to climate change. European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is one of the most important native tree species in Europe. Beech populations originating throughout its native range were selected for common-garden experiments with the aim to determine whether there are functional variations in drought stress responses among different populations. One-year old seedlings from four to seven beech populations were grown and drought-treated in a greenhouse, replicating the experiment at two contrasting sites, in Italy (Mediterranean mountains) and Germany (Central Europe). Experimental findings indicated that: (1) drought (water stress) mainly affected gas exchange describing a critical threshold of drought response between 30 and 26% SWA for photosynthetic rate and Ci/Ca, respectively; (2) the Ci to Ca ratio increased substantially with severe water stress suggesting a stable instantaneous water use efficiency and an efficient regulation capacity of water balance achieved by a tight stomatal control; (3) there was a different response to water stress among the considered beech populations, differently combining traits, although there was not a well-defined variability in drought tolerance. A combined analysis of functional and structural traits for detecting stress signals in beech seedlings is suggested to assess plant performance under limiting moisture conditions and, consequently, to estimate evolutionary potential of beech under a changing environmental scenario. PMID:27446118

Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: A case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bansal, Sheel; Harrington, Constance A; St. Clair, John Bradley

2016-01-01

Summary: 1. Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. 2. We assessed the capacity of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii), an ecologically and economically important species in the northwestern USA, to tolerate both drought and cold stress on 35 populations grown in common gardens. We used principal components analysis to combine drought and cold hardiness trait data into generalized stress hardiness traits to model geographic variation in hardiness as a function of climate across the Douglas-fir range. 3. Drought and cold hardiness converged among populations along winter temperature gradients and diverged along summer precipitation gradients. Populations originating in regions with cold winters had relatively high tolerance to both drought and cold stress, which is likely due to overlapping adaptations for coping with winter desiccation. Populations from regions with dry summers had increased drought hardiness but reduced cold hardiness, suggesting a trade-off in tolerance mechanisms. 4. Our findings highlight the necessity to look beyond bivariate trait–climate relationships and instead consider multiple traits and climate variables to effectively model and manage for the impacts of climate change on widespread species.

Towards Improved Understanding of Drought and Drought Impacts from Long Term Earth Observation Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champagne, C.; Wang, S.; Liu, J.; Hadwen, T. A.

2017-12-01

Drought is a complex natural disaster, which often emerges slowly, but can occur at various time scales and have impacts that are not well understood. Long term observations of drought intensity and frequency are often quantified from precipitation and temperature based indices or modelled estimates of soil water storage. The maturity of satellite based observations has created the potential to enhance the understanding of drought and drought impacts, particularly in regions where traditional data sets are limited by remoteness or inaccessibility, and where drought processes are not well-quantified by models. Long term global satellite data records now provide observations of key hydrological variables, including evaporation modelled from thermal sensors, soil moisture from microwave sensors, ground water from gravity sensors and vegetation condition that can be modelled from optical sensors. This study examined trends in drought frequency, intensity and duration over diverse ecoregions in Canada, including agricultural, grassland, forested and wetland areas. Trends in drought were obtained from the Canadian Drought Monitor as well as meteorological based indices from weather stations, and evaluated against satellite derived information on evaporative stress (Anderson et al. 2011), soil moisture (Champagne et al. 2015), terrestrial water storage (Wang and Li 2016) and vegetation condition (Davidson et al. 2009). Data sets were evaluated to determine differences in how different sensors characterize the hydrology and impacts of drought events from 2003 to 2016. Preliminary results show how different hydrological observations can provide unique information that can tie causes of drought (water shortages resulting from precipitation, lack of moisture storage or evaporative stress) to impacts (vegetation condition) that hold the potential to improve the understanding and classification of drought events.

Using Coupled Groundwater-Surface Water Models to Simulate Eco-Regional Differences in Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Drought Regimes in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierauer, J. R.; Allen, D. M.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extremes, including daily maximum temperatures, heat waves, and meteorological droughts, which will likely result in shifts in the hydrological drought regime (i.e. the frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events). While many studies have used hydrologic models to simulate climate change impacts on water resources, only a small portion of these studies have analyzed impacts on low flows and/or hydrological drought. This study is the first to use a fully coupled groundwater-surface water (gw-sw) model to study climate change impacts on hydrological drought. Generic catchment-scale gw-sw models were created for each of the six major eco-regions in British Columbia using the MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 modelling code. Daily precipitation and temperature time series downscaled using bias-correction spatial disaggregation for the simulated period of 1950-2100 were obtained from the Pacific Climate Institute Consortium (PCIC). Streamflow and groundwater drought events were identified from the simulated time series for each catchment model using the moving window quantile threshold. The frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events were compared between the reference period (1961-2000) and two future time periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). Results show how hydrological drought regimes across the different British Columbia eco-regions will be impacted by climate change.

Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Williams, P.; Mankin, J. S.; Seager, R.; Smerdon, J. E.; Singh, D.

2017-12-01

Coastal droughts simultaneously affecting California, Oregon, and Washington are rare, but have extensive and severe impacts (e.g., wildfire, agriculture). To better understand these events, we use historical observations to investigate: (1) drought variability along the Pacific Coast of the Contiguous United States and (2) years when extreme drought affects the entire coast. The leading pattern of cold-season (October-March) precipitation variability along the Pacific Coast favors spatially coherent moisture anomalies, accounts for >40% of the underlying variance, and is forced primarily by internal atmospheric dynamics. This contrasts with a much weaker dipole mode ( 20% of precipitation variability) characterized by anti-phased moisture anomalies across 40N and strong correlations with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Sixteen coastal-wide summer droughts occurred from 1895-2016 (clustering in the 1920s-1930s and post-2000), events most strongly linked with the leading precipitation mode and internal atmospheric variability. The frequency of landfalling atmospheric rivers south of 40N is sharply reduced during coastal droughts, but not north of this boundary where their frequency is more strongly influenced by the dipole. The lack of a consistent pattern of SST forcing during coastal droughts suggests little potential for skillful predictions of these events at the seasonal scale. However, their tendency to cluster in time and the impact of warming during recent droughts may help inform decadal and longer-term drought risks.

Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events in Southwest China and their relationships to teleconnection indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P., III; Wu, C.; Hao, Y.; Xu, K.

2017-12-01

In the process of global warming, the frequency and intensity of a series of climate events (such as, precipitation, flood disaster, climate arid) are also being changed. Even in the today of advanced science and technology, the occurrence and severity of drought in China is still devastating impact on social and economic development. We studied the spatial and temporal variability of drought in southwestern China China and its relationships to teleconnection indices. We used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to investigate the variation in drought in southwestern China between 1961 and 2012 using the Mann-Kendall (MK), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. Additionally, We analyzed the relationships between the time variability of significant patterns and teleconnection indices. The PDSI shows that there is a trend of turning dry in west Tibet; while it is remarkably drying in junction of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing provinces, and the drought in Spring is more severe than in autumn, with a changing oscillation period of 2-7a. It's found the drought strength reducing before rising without a obvious turning point. Also, the drought frequency staggered in spatial distribution, and a larger inter-annual difference. AO and SS are the most important factors among all the drought influence factors, the others differ from the importance.

Rapid genome-wide evolution in Brassica rapa populations following drought revealed by sequencing of ancestral and descendant gene pools.

PubMed

Franks, Steven J; Kane, Nolan C; O'Hara, Niamh B; Tittes, Silas; Rest, Joshua S

2016-08-01

There is increasing evidence that evolution can occur rapidly in response to selection. Recent advances in sequencing suggest the possibility of documenting genetic changes as they occur in populations, thus uncovering the genetic basis of evolution, particularly if samples are available from both before and after selection. Here, we had a unique opportunity to directly assess genetic changes in natural populations following an evolutionary response to a fluctuation in climate. We analysed genome-wide differences between ancestors and descendants of natural populations of Brassica rapa plants from two locations that rapidly evolved changes in multiple phenotypic traits, including flowering time, following a multiyear late-season drought in California. These ancestor-descendant comparisons revealed evolutionary shifts in allele frequencies in many genes. Some genes showing evolutionary shifts have functions related to drought stress and flowering time, consistent with an adaptive response to selection. Loci differentiated between ancestors and descendants (FST outliers) were generally different from those showing signatures of selection based on site frequency spectrum analysis (Tajima's D), indicating that the loci that evolved in response to the recent drought and those under historical selection were generally distinct. Very few genes showed similar evolutionary responses between two geographically distinct populations, suggesting independent genetic trajectories of evolution yielding parallel phenotypic changes. The results show that selection can result in rapid genome-wide evolutionary shifts in allele frequencies in natural populations, and highlight the usefulness of combining resurrection experiments in natural populations with genomics for studying the genetic basis of adaptive evolution. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrillo, Carlos M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I.; Luong, Thang M.

2017-12-01

This investigation evaluates whether there is coherency in warm and cool season precipitation at the low-frequency scale that may be responsible for multi-year droughts in the US Southwest. This low-frequency climate variability at the decadal scale and longer is studied within the context of a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) and its dynamically-downscaled version (DD-20CR). A spectral domain matrix methods technique (Multiple-Taper-Method Singular Value Decomposition) is applied to these datasets to identify statistically significant spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for the cool (November-April) and warm (July-August) seasons. The low-frequency variability in the 20CR is evaluated by exploring global to continental-scale spatiotemporal variability in moisture flux convergence (MFC) to the occurrence of multiyear droughts and pluvials in Central America, as this region has a demonstrated anti-phase relationship in low-frequency climate variability with northern Mexico and the southwestern US By using the MFC in lieu of precipitation, this study reveals that the 20CR is able to resolve well the low-frequency, multiyear climate variability. In the context of the DD-20CR, multiyear droughts and pluvials in the southwestern US (in the early twentieth century) are significantly related to this low-frequency climate variability. The precipitation anomalies at these low-frequency timescales are in phase between the cool and warm seasons, consistent with the concept of dual-season drought as has been suggested in tree ring studies.

Impacts of climate change on vegetation, hydrological and socio-economic droughts in a transitional wet-to-dry Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, João Pedro; Pulquério, Mário; Grosso, Nuno; Duarte Santos, Filipe; João Cruz, Maria

2015-04-01

The Tagus river basin is located in a transitional region between humid and semi-arid climate. The lower part of the basin is a strategic source of water for Portugal, providing water for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic water supplies for over 4 million people. Climate change in this region is expected to lead to higher temperatures and lower rainfall, therefore increasing climatic aridity. In this transitional region, this could lead to an increased frequency of severe droughts, threatening climatic support for current agricultural and forestry practices, as well as the sustainability of domestic water supplies. This work evaluated the impacts of climate change on drought frequency and severity for the Portuguese part of the Tagus river basin. Climate change scenarios for 2010-2100 (A2 greenhouse emission scenarios) were statistically downscaled for the study area. They were evaluated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, which simulated vegetation water demand and drought stress, soil water availability, irrigation abstraction, streamflow, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge. Water inflows from Spain were estimated using an empirical climate-based model. Drought occurrence and severity was analyzed in terms of: * meteorological drought, based on (i) the Standardized Precipitation Index and (ii) the Aridity Index; * vegetation/agricultural drought, based on plant water stress; * hydrological drought, based on (i) streamflow rates and (ii) reservoir storage; * socio-economic drought, based on (i) the capacity of the main reservoir in the system (Castelo de Bode) to sustain hydropower and domestic supplies, and (ii) the rate of groundwater extraction vs. irrigation demands for the cultures located in the intensive cultivation regions of the Lezírias near the Tagus estuary. The results indicate a trend of increasing frequency and severity of most drought types during the XXIst century, with a noticeable increase in the latter decades. The exceptions are agricultural droughts for annual crops, which appear to benefit from a milder and rainier winter; and domestic water supplies, which are not threatened in any scenario as long as they are prioritized over other water uses.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rich, P. M.; Weintraub, L. H.; Chen, L.; Herr, J.

2005-12-01

Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected systems, and enable better decisions.

Exploring standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for drought assessment in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Miah, Md Giashuddin; Abdullah, Hasan Muhammad; Jeong, Changyoon

2017-10-09

Drought is a critical issue, and it has a pressing, negative impact on agriculture, ecosystems, livelihoods, food security, and sustainability. The problem has been studied globally, but its regional or even local dimension is sometimes overlooked. Local-level drought assessment is necessary for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for that particular region. Keeping this in understanding, an attempt was made to create a detailed assessment of drought characteristics at the local scale in Bangladesh. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) is a new drought index that mainly considers the rainfall and evapotranspiration data set. Globally, SPEI has become a useful drought index, but its local scale application is not common. SPEI base (0.5° grid data) for 110 years (1901-2011) was utilized to overcome the lack of long-term climate data in Bangladesh. Available weather data (1955-2011) from Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) were analyzed to calculate SPEI weather station using the SPEI calculator. The drivers for climate change-induced droughts were characterized by residual temperature and residual rainfall data from different BMD stations. Grid data (SPEI base ) of 26 stations of BMD were used for drought mapping. The findings revealed that the frequency and intensity of drought are higher in the northwestern part of the country which makes it vulnerable to both extreme and severe droughts. Based on the results, the SPEI-based drought intensity and frequency analyses were carried out, emphasizing Rangpur (northwest region) as a hot spot, to get an insight of drought assessment in Bangladesh. The findings of this study revealed that SPEI could be a valuable tool to understand the evolution and evaluation of the drought induced by climate change in the country. The study also justified the immediate need for drought risk reduction strategies that should lead to relevant policy formulations and agricultural innovations for developing drought adaptation, mitigation, and resilience mechanisms in Bangladesh.

Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought

Treesearch

Alessandra Bottero; Anthony W. D' Amato; Brian J. Palik; John B. Bradford; Shawn Fraver; Mike A. Battaglia; Lance A. Asherin; Harald Bugmann

2017-01-01

Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary...

Spatial Variations in Drought Persistence in the South-Central U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leasor, Z. T.; Quiring, S. M.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most prominent climatic hazards in the south-central United States. This study examines spatial variations in meteorological drought persistence using high-resolution PRISM gridded precipitation data from 1900-2015. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to represent meteorological drought conditions. The study region covers Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Droughts are first divided into different severity categories using the classification employed by the U.S. National Drought Monitor. The frequency and duration of each drought event is determined and this is used to calculate drought persistence. Our results indicate that drought persistence in the south-central U.S. varies as a function of drought severity. In addition, drought persistence also varies substantially over space and time. The probability of drought termination is a function of drought severity, geographic location and time of the year. In addition, there is evidence that drought persistence is influenced by global teleconnections and land-atmosphere interactions. The results of this drought persistence climatology can benefit seasonal forecasting and the current understanding of drought recovery.

Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.

2017-01-01

In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950-2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950-2015 and 1981-2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn.

Comprehensive Characterization of Droughts to Assess the Effectiveness of a Basin-Wide Integrated Water Management in the Yakima River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Li, H. Y.

2017-12-01

Better characterization and understanding of droughts and their potential links to climate and hydrologic factors are essential for water resources planning and management in drought-sensitive but agriculturally productive regions like the Yakima River Basin (YKB) in Washington State. The basin is semi-arid and heavily relies on a fully appropriated irrigation water for fruit and crop productions that worth more than 3 billion annually. The basin experienced three major droughts since 2000 with estimated 670 million losses in farm revenue. In response to these and expected worsening drought conditions in the future, there is an ongoing multi-agency effort to adopt a basin-wide integrated water management to ensure water security during severe droughts. In this study, the effectiveness of the proposed water management plan to reduce the frequency and severity of droughts was assessed using a new drought index developed based on the seasonal variations of precipitation, temperature, snow accumulation, streamflow, and reservoir storages. In order to uncover the underlying causes of the various types of droughts observed during the 1961-2016, explanatory data analysis using deep learning was conducted for the local climate and hydrologic data including total water supply available, as well as global climatic phenomenon (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation). The preliminary results showed that besides shortage in annual precipitation, various combinations of climate and hydrologic factors are responsible for the different drought conditions in the basin. Particularly, the winter snowpack, which provides about 2/3 of the surface water in the basin along with the carryover storage from the reservoirs play an important role during both single- and multiple-year drought events. Besides providing the much-needed insights about characteristics of droughts and their contributing factors, the outcome of the study is expected to have a direct contribution to the ongoing discussion of the effectiveness of the water management plan in the YRB.

Simulating drought impacts on energy balance in an Amazonian rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imbuzeiro, H. A.; Costa, M. H.; Galbraith, D.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Powell, T.; Harper, A. B.; Levine, N. M.; Rowland, L.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Benezoli, V. H.; Meir, P.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Brando, P. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Williams, M. D.

2014-12-01

The studies of the interaction between vegetation and climate change in the Amazon Basin indicate that up to half of the region's forests may be displaced by savanna vegetation by the end of the century. Additional analyses suggest that complex interactions among land use, fire-frequency, and episodic drought are driving an even more rapid process of the forest impoverishment and displacement referred here as "savannization". But it is not clear whether surface/ecosystem models are suitable to analyze extreme events like a drought. Long-term simulations of throughfall exclusion experiments has provided unique insights into the energy dynamics of Amazonian rainforests during drought conditions. In this study, we evaluate how well six surface/ecosystem models quantify the energy dynamics from two Amazonian throughfall exclusion experiments. All models were run for the Tapajós and Caxiuanã sites with one control plot using normal precipitation (i.e. do not impose a drought) and then the drought manipulation was imposed for several drought treatments (10 to 90% rainfall exclusion). The sap flow, net radiation (Rn), sensible (H), latent (LE) and ground (G) heat flux are used to analyze if the models are able to capture the dynamics of water stress and what the implications for the energy dynamics are. With respect to the model validation, when we compare the sap flow observed and transpiration simulated, models are more accurate to simulate control plots than drought treatments (50% rainfall exclusion). The results show that the models overestimate the sap flow data during the drought conditions, but they were able to capture the changes in the main energy balance components for different drought treatments. The Rn and LE decreased and H increased with more intensity of drought. The models sensitivity analysis indicate that models are more sensitive to drought when rainfall is excluded for more than 60% and when this reduction occurs during the dry season.

On the potentials of multiple climate variables in assessing the spatio-temporal characteristics of hydrological droughts over the Volta Basin.

PubMed

Ndehedehe, Christopher E; Awange, Joseph L; Corner, Robert J; Kuhn, Michael; Okwuashi, Onuwa

2016-07-01

Multiple drought episodes over the Volta basin in recent reports may lead to food insecurity and loss of revenue. However, drought studies over the Volta basin are rather generalised and largely undocumented due to sparse ground observations and unsuitable framework to determine their space-time occurrence. In this study, we examined the utility of standardised indicators (standardised precipitation index (SPI), standardised runoff index (SRI), standardised soil moisture index (SSI), and multivariate standardised drought index (MSDI)) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived terrestrial water storage to assess hydrological drought characteristics over the basin. In order to determine the space-time patterns of hydrological drought in the basin, Independent Component Analysis (ICA), a higher order statistical technique was employed. The results show that SPI and SRI exhibit inconsistent behaviour in observed wet years presupposing a non-linear relationship that reflects the slow response of river discharge to precipitation especially after a previous extreme dry period. While the SPI and SSI show a linear relationship with a correlation of 0.63, the correlation between the MSDIs derived from combining precipitation/river discharge and precipitation/soil moisture indicates a significant value of 0.70 and shows an improved skill in hydrological drought monitoring over the Volta basin during the study period. The ICA-derived spatio-temporal hydrological drought patterns show Burkina Faso and the Lake Volta areas as predominantly drought zones. Further, the statistically significant negative correlations of pacific decadal oscillations (0.39 and 0.25) with temporal evolutions of drought in Burkina Faso and Ghana suggest the possible influence of low frequency large scale oscillations in the observed wet and dry regimes over the basin. Finally, our approach in drought assessment over the Volta basin contributes to a broad framework for hydrological drought monitoring that will complement existing methods while looking forward to a longer record of GRACE observations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tree species' responses to throughfall removal experiments superimposed on a natural drought event in two contrasting humid temperate forests in New Hampshire, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, Katie; McIntire, Cameron; Coble, Adam; Vandeboncoeur, Matthew; Rustad, Lindsay; Templer, Pamela; Absbjornsen, Heidi

2017-04-01

Climate change is likely to affect Northeastern U.S. forests through the increased frequency and severity of drought events. However, our understanding of how these humid temperate forests will respond to moderate to extreme droughts is limited. Given the important role that these forests play in providing ecosystem services and in supplying forest products, enhancing our knowledge about the impacts of drought is critical to guiding forest management and climate change adaptation efforts. We conducted 50% throughfall removal experiments at two contrasting sites in the Northeastern US (Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and Thompson Farm, NH, USA), which were superimposed on the severe natural drought occurring in August-September 2016. Preliminary analysis suggests that the two sites respond differently to simulated drought. Pinus strobus trees at Thompson Farm reduced their transpiration rates in response to both the natural and experimental drought, particularly evident during a 5-day period at the height of the drought were transpiration nearly ceased. Both P. strobus and Quercus rubra trees increased their water use efficiency in response to reduced soil water availability, with Q. rubra allowing its midday water potential to reach more negative values, consistent with its more drought tolerant strategy compared to P. strobus. In contrast, we did not detect any significant differences in tree transpiration rates or growth in the dominant tree species, Acer rubrum, in response to the experimental drought treatment at Hubbard Brook. However, both soil respiration and fine root biomass production were lower in the drought treatment plots relative to the control plots at Hubbard Brook. We plan to continue these throughfall removal experiments for at least two more years to better understand the implications of future drought in these humid temperate forests and identify differences in species' physiological adaptations and threshold responses.

Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

2015-04-01

Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rad, Arash Modaresi; Ghahraman, Bijan; Khalili, Davar; Ghahremani, Zahra; Ardakani, Samira Ahmadi

2017-09-01

Conventionally, drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The chosen study area is a sub-basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), with five raingauge stations and one hydrometric station, located upstream and at the outlet, respectively, which represent 41-year of data. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which are used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit (GOF) tests, Anderson-Darling is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through GOF measures, i.e., Akaike and Bayesian information criteria and normalized root mean square error. Furthermore, a GOF method is proposed to evaluate the uncertainty associated with different copula models using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) unlike common indices which are used in conjunction with station data, can be applied on a regional basis. SPDI is compared with widely applied streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). To assess the homogeneity of the dependence structure of SPSI regionally, Kendall-τ and upper tail coefficient relation is investigated for all stations located within the region. According to results, SPSI similar to nonparametric multivariate standardized drought index (NMSDI) was able to detect both onset of droughts dominated by precipitation as is similarly indicated by SPI and persistence of droughts dominated by streamflow as is similarly indicated by SDI. It also captures discordant case of normal period precipitation with dry period streamflow and vice versa. This makes SPSI a powerful tool for estimating a more practical and realistic drought condition. Finally, combination of severity-duration-frequency (SDF) of drought events through copulas resulted in SDF curves that can be used to obtain the recurrence of extreme droughts and assess drought related ecosystem failure or to aid in optimization of water resources allocation. Results indicated that the newly proposed index (SPSI) is able to represent two main characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought (drought onset and persistency) and also providing an accurate estimation of the recurrence interval of extreme droughts. The procedures can be used to undertake proactive water resource management and planning to assure water security and sustainable agriculture and ecosystem survival for regions experiencing extreme droughts.

Precipitation Reconstructions and Periods of Drought in the Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Follum, M.; Barnett, A.; Bellamy, J.; Gray, S.; Tootle, G.

2008-12-01

Due to recent drought and stress on water supplies in the Colorado River Compact States, more emphasis has been placed on the study of water resources in the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. The research described here focuses on the creation of long-duration precipitation records for the UGRB using tree-ring chronologies. When combined with existing proxy streamflow reconstructions and drought frequency analysis, these records offer a detailed look at hydrologic variability in the UGRB. Approximately thirty-three existing tree ring chronologies were analyzed for the UGRB area. Several new tree ring chronologies were also developed to enhance the accuracy and the geographical diversity of the resulting tree-ring reconstructions. In total, three new Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and four new limber pine (Pinus flexilis) sites were added to the available tree-ring chronologies in this area. Tree-ring based reconstructions of annual (previous July through current June) precipitation were then created for each of the seventeen sub-watersheds in the UGRB. Reconstructed precipitation records extend back to at least 1654 AD, with reconstructions for some sub-basins beginning pre-1500. Variance explained (i.e. adjusted R2) ranged from 0.41 to 0.74, and the reconstructions performed well in a variety of verification tests. Additional analyses focused on stochastic estimation of drought frequency and return period, and detailed comparisons between reconstructed records and instrumental observations. Overall, this work points to the prevalence of severe, widespread drought in the UGRB. These analyses also highlight the relative wetness and lack of sustained dry periods during the instrumental period (1895-Present). Such long- term assessments are, in turn, vital tools as the Compact States contemplate the "Law of the River" in the face of climate change and ever-growing water demands.

Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

Predicting and attributing recent East African Spring droughts with dynamical-statistical climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Hoerling, M. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.

2013-12-01

During boreal spring, eastern portions of Kenya and Somalia have experienced more frequent droughts since 1999. Given the region's high levels of food insecurity, better predictions of these droughts could provide substantial humanitarian benefits. We show that dynamical-statistical seasonal climate forecasts, based on the latest generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models, effectively predict boreal spring rainfall in this area. Skill sources are assessed by comparing ensembles driven with full-ocean forcing with ensembles driven with ENSO-only sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analysis suggests that both ENSO and non-ENSO Indo-Pacific SST forcing have played an important role in the increase in drought frequencies. Over the past 30 years, La Niña drought teleconnections have strengthened, while non-ENSO Indo-Pacific convection patterns have also supported increased (decreased) Western Pacific (East African) rainfall. To further examine the relative contribution of ENSO, low frequency warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we present decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AMIP simulations. These decompositions suggest that rapid warming in the western Pacific and steeper western-to-central Pacific SST gradients have likely played an important role in the recent intensification of the Walker circulation, and the associated increase in East African aridity. A linear combination of time series describing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the strength of Indo-Pacific warming are shown to track East African rainfall reasonably well. The talk concludes with a few thoughts linking the potentially important interplay of attribution and prediction. At least for recent East African droughts, it appears that a characteristic Indo-Pacific SST and precipitation anomaly pattern can be linked statistically to support forecasts and attribution analyses. The combination of traditional AGCM attribution analyses with simple yet physically plausible statistical estimation procedures may help us better untangle some climate mysteries.

Effects of meteorological droughts on agricultural water resources in southern China

Treesearch

Houquan Lu; Yihua Wu; Yijun Li; Yongqiang Liu

2017-01-01

With the global warming, frequencies of drought are rising in the humid area of southern China. In this study, the effects of meteorological drought on the agricultural water resource based on the agricultural water resource carrying capacity (AWRCC) in southern China were investigated. The entire study area was divided into three regions based on the...

Ecohydrological consequences of drought- and infestation-triggered tree die-off: Insights and hypotheses

Treesearch

Henry D. Adams; Charles H. Luce; David D. Breshears; Craig D. Allen; Markus Weiler; V. Cody Hale; Alistair M. S. Smith; Travis E. Huxman

2012-01-01

Widespread, rapid, drought-, and infestation-triggered tree mortality is emerging as a phenomenon affecting forests globally and may be linked to increasing temperatures and drought frequency and severity. The ecohydrological consequences of forest die-off have been little studied and remain highly uncertain. To explore this knowledge gap, we apply the extensive...

Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index.

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Huang, Kaicheng; Gao, Shan; Wu, Hao; Luo, Hui

2015-07-08

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months). When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation's responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April-October). The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages.

Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wanders, N.; Bierkens, M. F.

2012-12-01

Over the past decades, human water consumption has more than doubled, and reduced streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological droughts, i.e. the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow. Here, we quantify over the period 1960-2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological droughts worldwide. We simulated streamflow by the global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB at a 0.5 degree spatial resolution, and reduced the amount of streamflow with different levels of human water consumption over the period 1960-2010. We applied the commonly used variable threshold level method to identify below-normal water availability as the onset of hydrological droughts. We then standardized the deficit volume dividing relative to the threshold level to express the intensity of drought conditions to normal streamflow conditions. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow in many regions of the world. This subsequently intensified hydrological droughts regionally by 10-500%. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over western and central U.S., southern Europe, Asia, and southeastern Australia, whereas the impact of industrial and households' consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over eastern U.S., and western and central Europe. The results also show that drought frequency increased by more than 27% compared to pristine or natural condition as a result of human water consumption. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia, but also substantial over North America and Europe. Importantly, global population under severe hydrological droughts considerably increased from 0.7 billion in 1960 to 2.2 billion in 2010 due to rapid population growth. As a limited validation exercise, we compared simulated deficit volumes to those derived from observed river discharges for some important basins of the world. The comparison shows generally good agreement, but large discrepancies occurred when simulated river discharge failed to reproduce well the peak discharge and the mean amplitude in seasonal discharges, regardless of high correlation obtained from comparison of monthly discharges.

Analysis of drought impacts on electricity production in the Western and Texas interconnections of the United States.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harto, C. B.; Yan, Y. E.; Demissie, Y. K.

2012-02-09

Electricity generation relies heavily on water resources and their availability. To examine the interdependence of energy and water in the electricity context, the impacts of a severe drought to assess the risk posed by drought to electricity generation within the western and Texas interconnections has been examined. The historical drought patterns in the western United States were analyzed, and the risk posed by drought to electricity generation within the region was evaluated. The results of this effort will be used to develop scenarios for medium- and long-term transmission modeling and planning efforts by the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) andmore » the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The study was performed in response to a request developed by the Western Governors Association in conjunction with the transmission modeling teams at the participating interconnections. It is part of a U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored, national laboratory-led research effort to develop tools related to the interdependency of energy and water as part of a larger interconnection-wide transmission planning project funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. This study accomplished three main objectives. It provided a thorough literature review of recent studies of drought and the potential implications for electricity generation. It analyzed historical drought patterns in the western United States and used the results to develop three design drought scenarios. Finally, it quantified the risk to electricity generation for each of eight basins for each of the three drought scenarios and considered the implications for transmission planning. Literature on drought impacts on electricity generation describes a number of examples where hydroelectric generation capacity has been limited because of drought but only a few examples of impact on thermoelectric generation. In all documented cases, shortfalls of generation were met by purchasing power from the market, albeit at higher prices. However, sufficient excess generation and transmission must be available for this strategy to work. Although power purchase was the most commonly discussed drought mitigation strategy, a total of 12 response strategies were identified in the literature, falling into four main categories: electricity supply, electricity demand response, alternative water supplies, and water demand response. Three hydrological drought scenarios were developed based on a literature review and historical data analysis. The literature review helped to identify key drought parameters and data on drought frequency and severity. Historical hydrological drought data were analyzed for the western United States to identify potential drought correlations and estimate drought parameters. The first scenario was a West-wide drought occurring in 1977; it represented a severe drought in five of the eight basins in the study area. A second drought scenario was artificially defined by selecting the conditions from the 10th-percentile drought year for each individual basin; this drought was defined in this way to allow more consistent analysis of risk to electricity generation in each basin. The final scenario was based upon the current low-flow hydro modeling scenario defined by WECC, which uses conditions from the year 2001. These scenarios were then used to quantify the risk to electricity generation in each basin. The risk calculations represent a first-order estimate of the maximum amount of electricity generation that might be lost from both hydroelectric and thermoelectric sources under a worst-case scenario. Even with the conservative methodology used, the majority of basins showed a limited amount of risk under most scenarios. The level of risk in these basins is likely to be amenable to mitigation by known strategies, combined with existing reserve generation and transmission capacity. However, the risks to the Pacific Northwest and Texas Basins require further study. The Pacific Northwest is vulnerable because of its heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation. Texas, conversely, is vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on thermoelectric generation, which relies on surface water for cooling, along with the fact that this basin seems to experience more severe drought events on average. Further modeling analysis will be performed in conjunction with the modeling teams at the participating interconnections (WECC and ERCOT) to explore the transmission implications of the drought scenarios in more detail. Given the first-order nature of this analysis, more detailed study of the potential impacts of drought on electricity generation is recommended. Future analyses should attempt to model the potential impacts of drought at the power-plant level, including potential mitigation strategies; include the effects of drought duration; understand the impacts of climate change; and consider economic impacts.« less

Dynamical analysis of the Indian Ocean climate network and its correlation with Australian Millennium Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpi, Laura; Masoller, Cristina; Díaz-Guilera, Albert; Ravetti, Martín G.

2015-04-01

During the period between the mid-1990s and late 2000s Australia had suffered one of the worst droughts on record. Severe rainfall deficits affected great part of southeast Australia, causing widespread drought conditions and catastrophic bushfires. The "Millennium Drought", as it was called, was unusual in terms of its severity, duration and extent, leaving important environmental and financial damages. One of the most important drivers of Australia climate variability is the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), that is a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The IOD is measured by an index (DMI) that is the difference between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Its positive phase is characterized by lower than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern coast, and higher than normal in the tropical western Indian Ocean. Extreme positive IOD (pIOD) events are associated to severe droughts in countries located over the eastern Indian Ocean, and to severe floods in the western tropical ones. Recent research works projected that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase significantly over the twenty-first century and consequently, the frequency of extreme climate conditions in the zones affected by it. In this work we study the dynamics of the Indian Ocean for the period of 1979-2014, by using climate networks of skin temperature and humidity (reanalysis data). Annual networks are constructed by creating links when the Pearson correlation coefficient between two nodes is greater than a specific value. The distance distribution Pd(k), that indicates the fraction of pairs of nodes at distance k, is computed to characterize the dynamics of the network by using Information Theory quantifiers. We found a clear change in the Indian Ocean dynamics and an increment in the network's similarities quantified by the Jensen-Shannon divergence in the late 1990s. We speculate that these findings are capturing mean state changes within the Indian Ocean that result in the increase of extreme positive IOD frequency, among other unknown consequences. We show that the unusual characteristics of the Australian Millennium Drought is strongly associated with this new Indian Ocean dynamics showing its relevance in the Australia climate variability.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in northeast Australia.

PubMed

Lobell, David B; Hammer, Graeme L; Chenu, Karine; Zheng, Bangyou; McLean, Greg; Chapman, Scott C

2015-11-01

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here, we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation-use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than that for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Droughts, rainfall and rural water supply in northern Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarhule, Aondover Augustine

Knowledge concerning various aspects of drought and water scarcity is required to predict, and to articulate strategies to minimize the effects of future events. This thesis investigated different aspects of droughts and rainfall variability at several time scales and described the dynamics of water supply and use in a rural village in northeastern Nigeria. The parallel existence of measured climatic records and information on famine/folklore events is utilized to calibrate the historical information against the measured data. It is shown that famines or historical droughts occurred when the cumulative deficit of rainfall fell below 1.3 times the standard deviation of the long-term mean rainfall. The study demonstrated that famine chronologies are adequate proxy for drought events, providing a means for the reconstruction of the drought/climatic history of the region. Analysis of recent changes in annual rainfall characteristics show that the series of annual rainfall and number of rain days experienced a discontinuity during the 1960's, caused largely by the decrease in the frequency of moderate to high intensity rain events. The periods prior to and after the change point are homogenous and provide an objective basis for the estimation of changes in rainfall characteristics, drought parameters and for demarcating the region into sub-zones. Rainfall variability was unaffected by the abrupt change. Furthermore, the variability is independently distributed and adequately described by the normal distribution. This allows estimates of the probability of various magnitudes or thresholds of variability. The effects of droughts and rainfall variability are most strongly felt in rural areas. Analysis of the patterns of water supply and use in a typical rural village revealed that the hydrologic system is driven by the local rainfall. Perturbations in the rains propagate through the system with short lag time between the various components. Where fadama aquifers occur, they offer a major supplement of water for six to seven months during the dry season. Under traditional systems, the pattern of water withdrawal from the fadama aquifers is designed to accommodate the diverse interests of different groups and to minimize the potential for conflict. The results contribute to our understanding of drought and water scarcity and are useful in various practical applications.

Simulating extreme low-discharge events for the Rhine using a stochastic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Mens, Marjolein; Schasfoort, Femke; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2017-04-01

The specific features of hydrological droughts make them more difficult to be analysed than other water-related phenomena: longer time scales (months to several years) so less historical events are available, and the drought severity and associate damage depends on a combination of variables with no clear prevalence (e.g., total water deficit, maximum deficit and duration). As part of drought risk analysis, which aims to provide insight into the variability of hydrological conditions and associated socio-economic impacts, long synthetic time series should therefore be developed. In this contribution, we increase the length of the available inflow time series using stochastic autoregressive modelling. This enhancement could improve the characterization of the extreme range and can define extreme droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns that can lead to distinctly different damages. The methodology consists of: 1) fitting an autoregressive model (AR, ARMA…) to the available records; 2) generating extended time series (thousands of years); 3) performing a frequency analysis with different characteristic variables (total, deficit, maximum deficit and so on); and 4) selecting extreme drought events associated with different characteristic variables and return periods. The methodology was applied to the Rhine river discharge at location Lobith, where the Rhine enters The Netherlands. A monthly ARMA(1,1) autoregressive model with seasonally varying parameters was fitted and successfully validated to the historical records available since year 1901. The maximum monthly deficit with respect to a threshold value of 1800 m3/s and the average discharge for a given time span in m3/s were chosen as indicators to identify drought periods. A synthetic series of 10,000 years of discharges was generated using the validated ARMA model. Two time spans were considered in the analysis: the whole calendar year and the half-year period between April and September (the summer half year, where water demands are highest). Frequency analysis was performed for both indicators and time spans for the generated time series and the historical records. The comparison between observed and generated series showed that the ARMA model provides a good reproduction of the maximum deficits and total discharges, especially for the summer half-year period. The resulting synthetic series are therefore considered credible. These synthetic series, with its wealth of information, can then be used as inputs for the damage assessment models, together with information on precipitation deficits, in order to estimate the risk that lower inflows can have on the urban, the agricultural, the shipping sector and so on. This will help in associating economic losses and periods of return, as well as for estimating how droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns can lead to different damages. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study has been supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811), and by the Climate-KIC Pioneers into Practice Program supported by the European Union's EIT.

Drought in an invaded Hawaiian lowland wet forest

Treesearch

Jené Michaud; Susan Cordell; T. Colleen Cole; Rebecca Ostertag

2015-01-01

In this study we examined historic drought frequency and hydrologic effects of removing invasive plants from one of the few remaining Hawaiian wet lowland forests, near Hilo, Hawai‘i. We developed a conceptual and statistical model of Hilo droughts using historic rainfall and pan evaporation data and discovered that episodes of low soil moisture were most likely from...

Are Northeastern U.S. forests vulnerable to extreme drought?

Treesearch

Adam P. Coble; Matthew A. Vadeboncoeur; Z. Carter Berry; Katie A. Jennings; Cameron D. McIntire; John L. Campbell; Lindsey E. Rustad; Pamela H. Templer; Heidi Asbjornsen

2017-01-01

In the Northeastern U.S., drought is expected to increase in frequency over the next century, and therefore, the responses of trees to drought are important to understand. There is recent debate about whether land-use change or moisture availability is the primary driver of changes in forest species composition in this region. Some argue that fire suppression from the...

Observed and anticipated impacts of drought on forest insects and diseases in the United States

Treesearch

Thomas E. Kolb; Chris Fettig; Matthew P. Ayres; Barbara J. Bentz; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Robert Mathiasen; Jane E. Stewart; Aaron S. Weed

2016-01-01

Future anthropogenic-induced changes to the earth’s climate will likely include increases in temperature and changes in precipitation that will increase the frequency and severity of droughts. Insects and fungal diseases are important disturbances in forests, yet understanding of the role of drought in outbreaks of these agents is limited. Current knowledge...

Developing New Rainfall Estimates to Identify the Likelihood of Agricultural Drought in Mesoamerica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedreros, D. H.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Peterson, P.; Lasndsfeld, M.; Rowland, J.; Aguilar, L.; Rodriguez, M.

2012-12-01

The population in Central America was estimated at ~40 million people in 2009, with 65% in rural areas directly relying on local agricultural production for subsistence, and additional urban populations relying on regional production. Mapping rainfall patterns and values in Central America is a complex task due to the rough topography and the influence of two oceans on either side of this narrow land mass. Characterization of precipitation amounts both in time and space is of great importance for monitoring agricultural food production for food security analysis. With the goal of developing reliable rainfall fields, the Famine Early warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has compiled a dense set of historical rainfall stations for Central America through cooperation with meteorological services and global databases. The station database covers the years 1900-present with the highest density between 1970-2011. Interpolating station data by themselves does not provide a reliable result because it ignores topographical influences which dominate the region. To account for this, climatological rainfall fields were used to support the interpolation of the station data using a modified Inverse Distance Weighting process. By blending the station data with the climatological fields, a historical rainfall database was compiled for 1970-2011 at a 5km resolution for every five day interval. This new database opens the door to analysis such as the impact of sea surface temperature on rainfall patterns, changes to the typical dry spell during the rainy season, characterization of drought frequency and rainfall trends, among others. This study uses the historical database to identify the frequency of agricultural drought in the region and explores possible changes in precipitation patterns during the past 40 years. A threshold of 500mm of rainfall during the growing season was used to define agricultural drought for maize. This threshold was selected based on assessments of crop conditions from previous seasons, and was identified as an amount roughly corresponding to significant crop loss for maize, a major crop in most of the region. Results identify areas in central Honduras and Nicaragua as well as the Altiplano region in Guatemala that experienced 15 seasons of agricultural drought for the period May-July during the years 1970-2000. Preliminary results show no clear trend in rainfall, but further investigation is needed to confirm that agricultural drought is not becoming more frequent in this region.

New insights on historic droughts in the UK: Analysis of 200 river flow reconstructions for 1890-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parry, Simon; Barker, Lucy; Hannaford, Jamie; Prudhomme, Christel; Smith, Katie; Svensson, Cecilia; Tanguy, Maliko

2017-04-01

Hydrological droughts of the last 50 years in the UK have been well characterised owing to a relatively dense hydrometric network. Prior to this, observed river flow data were generally limited in their spatial coverage and often subject to considerable uncertainty. Whilst qualitative records indicate the occurrence of severe droughts in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, including scenarios which may cause substantial impacts to contemporary water supply systems, existing observations are not sufficient to describe their spatio-temporal characteristics. As such, insights on drought in the UK are constrained and a range of stakeholders including water companies and regulators would benefit from a more thorough assessment of historic drought characteristics and their variability. The multi-disciplinary Historic Droughts project aims to rigorously characterise droughts in the UK to inform improved drought management and communication. Driven by rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data that have been extended using recovered records, lumped catchment hydrological models are used to reconstruct daily river flows from 1890 to 2015 for more than 200 catchments across the UK. The reconstructions are derived within a state-of-the-art modelling framework which allows a comprehensive assessment of model, structure and parameter uncertainty. Standardised and threshold-based indicators are applied to the river flow reconstructions to identify and characterise hydrological drought events. The reconstructions are most beneficial in comprehensively describing well known but poorly quantified late 19th and early 20th century droughts, placing the spatial and temporal footprint of these often extreme events within the context of modern episodes for the first time. Oscillations between drought-rich and drought-poor periods are shown not to be limited to the recent observational past, providing an increased sample size of events against which to test a range of airflow and oceanic index patterns as potential drivers of streamflow drought. The quantification of changes over time in both the mean and the variability of drought frequency, duration, severity and termination benefits from the temporal extent of the river flow reconstructions, assessing the temporal variability of drought over more prolonged timescales than previous drought trend studies. When considered alongside complimentary reconstructions of rainfall and groundwater levels, the characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought are analysed to an extent not previously possible. The unprecedented spatio-temporal coverage of the river flow reconstructions has yielded important new insights on historic droughts in the UK. It is hoped that this more robust assessment of the historical variability of hydrological drought in the UK will underpin enhanced drought planning and management.

Risk assessment of drought disaster in typical area of corn cultivation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Wang, Chunyi

2017-05-01

This study assesses the risk of corn drought disaster in China under current climate conditions and builds a predictable relationship between drought disaster risk and yield losses. Two regions, Jilin and Henan, have been selected to represent two typical areas of corn cultivation. Risk is assessed from the aspects of hazard and vulnerability. Hazard presented as drought frequency and intensity. The sensitivity of corn to droughts that happened in different corn-growing stages and regional irrigation ability are used to reflect vulnerability. The results show that drought hazard and sensitivity in Jilin are much more serious than Henan, and irrigation ability is better in Henan. As a result, the drought disaster risk in Jilin is high; corn faces severe drought stress. The average corn yield loss rates during 1978-2010 in Jilin and Henan were 9.94 and 6.91 %, respectively. The correlation between corn yield losses and drought disaster risk is significant ( r = 0.711). The results can help to guide future agriculture planning and drought adaptation polices.

Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan.

PubMed

Aslam, Abdul Qayyum; Ahmad, Sajid R; Ahmad, Iftikhar; Hussain, Yawar; Hussain, Muhammad Sameem

2017-02-15

Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

2017-08-01

Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

Deconstructing Demand: The Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers of Urban Water Consumption.

PubMed

Hemati, Azadeh; Rippy, Megan A; Grant, Stanley B; Davis, Kristen; Feldman, David

2016-12-06

Cities in drought prone regions of the world such as South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and security challenges. Here we use 72 years of urban water consumption data from Melbourne, Australia, a city that recently overcame a 12 year "Millennium Drought", to evaluate (1) the relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic drivers of urban water demand (using wavelet-based approaches) and (2) the relative contribution of various water saving strategies to demand reduction during the Millennium Drought. Our analysis points to conservation as a dominant driver of urban water savings (69%), followed by nonrevenue water reduction (e.g., reduced meter error and leaks in the potable distribution system; 29%), and potable substitution with alternative sources like rain or recycled water (3%). Per-capita consumption exhibited both climatic and anthropogenic signatures, with rainfall and temperature explaining approximately 55% of the variance. Anthropogenic controls were also strong (up to 45% variance explained). These controls were nonstationary and frequency-specific, with conservation measures like outdoor water restrictions impacting seasonal water use and technological innovation/changing social norms impacting lower frequency (baseline) use. The above-noted nonstationarity implies that wavelets, which do not assume stationarity, show promise for use in future predictive models of demand.

Mapping Regional Drought Vulnerability: a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamouz, M.; Zeynolabedin, A.; Olyaei, M. A.

2015-12-01

Drought is among the natural disaster that causes damages and affects many people's life in many part of the world including in Iran. Recently, some factors such as climate variability and the impact of climate change have influenced drought frequency and intensity in many parts of the world. Drought can be divided into four categories of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and social-economic. In meteorological the important feature is lack of rainfall. In hydrological drought river flows and dam storage are considered. Lack of soil moisture is the key factor in agricultural droughts while in social-economic type of drought the relation between supply and demand and social-economic damages due to water deficiency is studied. While the first three types relates to the lack of some hydrological characteristics, social-economic type of drought is actually the consequence of other types expressed in monetary values. Many indices are used in assessing drought; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. Therefore knowing the types of drought can provide a better understanding of shortages and their characteristics. Drought vulnerability is a concept which shows the likelihood of damages from hazard in a particular place by focusing on the system status prior to the disaster. Drought vulnerability has been viewed as a potential for losses in the region due to water deficiency at the time of drought. In this study the application of vulnerability concept in drought management in East Azarbaijan province in Iran is investigated by providing vulnerability maps which demonstrates spatial characteristics of drought vulnerability. In the first step, certain governing parameters in drought analysis such as precipitation, temperature, land use, topography, solar radiation and ground water elevation have been investigated in the region. They are described in details and calculated in suitable time series. Vulnerabilities are ranked in 5 intervals and for each parameter vulnerability maps are prepared in GIS environment. Selection of theses parameters are based on factors such as regional features and availability of data. Considering the fact that the aforementioned parameters have different level of importance in vulnerability maps, different weights are assigned to the parameters considering how critical each parameter is in the overall drought analysis. Expert's opinion is selected in assigning weights. A multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) framework is used to check the consistency of the provided information. Then the weighted maps are overlaid to find the overall vulnerability map. The map shows very low, low, medium, intense and very intense regional vulnerabilities. According to the results, the west part of East Azarbaijan province is the most vulnerable region to drought which is expected due to the vicinity of this part to Urumia Lake that has been lost most of its water during the last decades. The least vulnerable part seems to be the Eastern part of the province with longer lasting resources. Taking into consideration that Caspian Sea is near this part with high precipitation record, the outcome of this study is in line with the general expectations. The result of this study can be used for preparedness planning and for allocating resources for facing droughts in this region.

Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index

PubMed Central

Li, Zheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Huang, Kaicheng; Gao, Shan; Wu, Hao; Luo, Hui

2015-01-01

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months). When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation’s responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April–October). The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages. PMID:26184243

Comparative analysis of CDPK family in maize, Arabidopsis, rice and sorghum revealed potential targets for drought tolerance improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittal, Shikha; Mallikarjuna, Mallana Gowdra; Rao, Atmakuri R.; Jain, Prashant A.; Dash, Prasanta K.; Thirunavukkarasu, Nepolean

2017-12-01

Calcium dependent protein kinases (CDPKs) play major role in regulation of plant growth and development in response to various stresses including drought. A set of 32 CDPK genes identified in maize were further used for searching of orthologs in the model plant Arabidopsis (72) and major food crops such as rice (78) and sorghum (91). We comprehensively investigated the phylogenetic relationship, annotations, gene duplications, gene structure, divergence time, 3-D protein structures and tissue-specific drought induced expression of CDPK genes in all four species. Variation in intron frequency among these species likely contributed to the functional diversity of CDPK genes to various stress responses. Protein kinase and protein kinase C phosphorylation site domains were the most conserved motifs identified in all species. Four groups were identified from the sequence-based phylogenetic analysis, in which maize CDPKs were clustered in group III. The time of divergence (Ka/Ks) analysis revealed that the CDPKs were evolved through stabilizing selection. Expression data showed that the CDPK genes were highly expressed in leaf of maize, rice, and sorghum whereas in Arabidopsis the maximum expression was observed in root. 3-D protein structure were predicted for the nine genes (Arabidopsis: 2, maize: 2, rice: 3 and sorghum: 2) showing differential expression in at least three species. The predicted 3-D structures were further evaluated and validated by Ramachandran plot, ANOLEA, ProSA and Verify-3D. The superimposed 3-D structure of drought-related orthologous proteins retained similar folding pattern owing to their conserved nature. Functional annotation revealed the involvement of CDPK genes in various pathways such as osmotic homeostasis, cell protection and root growth. The interactions of CDPK genes in various pathways play crucial role in imparting drought tolerance through different ABA and MAPK signalling cascades. Our studies suggest that these selected candidate genes could be targeted in development of drought tolerant cultivars in maize, rice and sorghum through appropriate breeding approaches. Our comparative experiments of CDPK genes could also be extended in the drought stress breeding programmes of the related species.

Drought characteristics and related risks in large and mesoscale tropical catchments in Latin-America and South East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauditt, Alexandra; Ribbe, Lars; Birkel, Christian; Célleri, Rolando

2016-04-01

Seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts are a recurrent phenomenon in water abundant tropical countries and are expected to become more frequent in the future. Unusual water shortage in the past months and years has severely affected societies living in the Paraiba do Sul river basin (Brazil), the Mekong, as well as in a number of basins in Central America and Vietnam among many others. Preparedness, however, is absent and site appropriate water management measures and strategies are not available. While drought related research and water management in recent years has been widely addressed in water scarce subtropical regions, the US and Europe, not much attention has been paid to drought risk in tropical catchments. Available daily or monthly precipitation and runoff time series for catchments in Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, the Mekong region and Vietnam were analysed to compare historical meteorological and hydrological drought frequency (SPI/SRI). The role of tropical catchment characteristics, storage and climate variability in seasonal drought evolvement was investigated by applying the conceptual semi-distributed HBV light model to two undisturbed catchments in Central Vietnam and 18 catchments of a size of 70-5000 km² in Costa Rica. For the Mekong and the Paraíba de Sul, the hydrological module of the WEAP model was applied to undisturbed subcatchments with the same objective. To understand and separate the anthropogenic impact on drought evolvement, the abstractions (irrigation, reservoirs, water supply) and hydrological alterations were observed and quantified by applying water allocation and balance model WEAP. We conclude that such a combined model-data analysis that equally accounts for landscape related and anthropogenic impacts on the local hydrological cycle is a useful approach for drought management in tropical countries.

Drought Effects on Agricultural Yield: Comparison Across Regions and Crop Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daryanto, S.; Wang, L.; Jacinthe, P. A.

2014-12-01

Global agricultural production is dominated by rainfed agriculture, and is therefore prone to disruption from climate extreme weathers. These uncertainties become more problematic when considering the projection of increased drought frequency suggested by several climate models for various world regions. Curiously, few regional analyses of drought impact of food production have been attempted. We collated and analyzed data from the last 25 years to disentangle the effects of drought (i.e. timing, intensity and duration) on agricultural production in different eco-regions and with varying crop types. Our preliminary results suggested greater yield reduction in annual (-21.5%) than perennial plants (-16%), in C4 (-21%) compared to C3 crops (-17%), and when drought occurred during generative (i.e. flowering until maturity; -16.5%) than vegetative stage (-15.5%). Although drought caused similar amounts of yield reduction in both tropical and subtropical regions (i.e. -17%), it carries a greater food security risk in the tropics due to inherently low productivity (i.e. less than half than in the subtropical regions). Consequently, cultivating drought-resistant C3 perennial plants (e.g. sweet potato and cassava) in the tropics could prove a viable adaptive strategy to mitigate the effects of climate variability. In addition, these crops have limited input requirements, are well adapted to nutrient-poor Oxisols and Ultisols of the tropics, and generally outyield cereal crops in the region. Our analysis is ongoing and needs to take into account agronomic traits (e.g. water requirement), as well as the energy and nutritional values (e.g. protein, minerals) of alternative crops. Our results could inform the selection and development of new cultivars for the drought-prone regions of the world.

Using an improved understanding of current climate variability to develop increased drought resilience in UK irrigated agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I.; Rey Vicario, D.

2016-12-01

Improving community preparedness for climate change can be supported by developing resilience to past events, focused on those changes of particular relevance (such as floods and droughts). However, communities' perceptions of impacts and risk can be influenced by an incomplete appreciation of historical baseline climate variability. This can arise from a number of factors including individual's age, access to long term data records and availability of local knowledge. For example, the most significant recent drought in the UK occurred in 1976/77 but does it represent the worst drought that did occur (or could have occurred) without climate change? We focus on the east of England where most irrigated agriculture is located and where many local farmers interviewed were either not in business then or have an incomplete memory of the impacts of the drought. This paper describes a comparison of an annual agroclimatic indicator closely linked to irrigation demand (maximum Potential Soil Moisture Deficit) calculated from three sources of long term observational and simulated historical weather data with recent data. These long term datasets include gridded measured / calculated datasets of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration; a dynamically downscaled 20th Century Re-analysis dataset, and two Regional Climate Model ensemble datasets (FutureFlows and the MaRIUS event set) which each provide between 110 and 3000 years of baseline weather. The comparison shows that the long term datasets provide a wider characterisation of current climate variability and affect the perception of current drought frequency and severity. The paper will show that using a more comprehensive understanding of current climate variability and drought risk as a basis for adapting irrigated systems to droughts can provide substantial increased resilience to (uncertain) climate change.

Mechanisms of piñon pine mortality after severe drought: a retrospective study of mature trees.

PubMed

Gaylord, Monica L; Kolb, Thomas E; McDowell, Nate G

2015-08-01

Conifers have incurred high mortality during recent global-change-type drought(s) in the western USA. Mechanisms of drought-related tree mortality need to be resolved to support predictions of the impacts of future increases in aridity on vegetation. Hydraulic failure, carbon starvation and lethal biotic agents are three potentially interrelated mechanisms of tree mortality during drought. Our study compared a suite of measurements related to these mechanisms between 49 mature piñon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.) trees that survived severe drought in 2002 (live trees) and 49 trees that died during the drought (dead trees) over three sites in Arizona and New Mexico. Results were consistent over all sites indicating common mortality mechanisms over a wide region rather than site-specific mechanisms. We found evidence for an interactive role of hydraulic failure, carbon starvation and biotic agents in tree death. For the decade prior to the mortality event, dead trees had twofold greater sapwood cavitation based on frequency of aspirated tracheid pits observed with scanning electron microscopy (SEM), smaller inter-tracheid pit diameter measured by SEM, greater diffusional constraints to photosynthesis based on higher wood δ(13)C, smaller xylem resin ducts, lower radial growth and more bark beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) attacks than live trees. Results suggest that sapwood cavitation, low carbon assimilation and low resin defense predispose piñon pine trees to bark beetle attacks and mortality during severe drought. Our novel approach is an important step forward to yield new insights into how trees die via retrospective analysis. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Historical drought patterns over Canada and their teleconnections with large-scale climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asong, Zilefac Elvis; Wheater, Howard Simon; Bonsal, Barrie; Razavi, Saman; Kurkute, Sopan

2018-06-01

Drought is a recurring extreme climate event and among the most costly natural disasters in the world. This is particularly true over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon with impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, industry, aquatic ecosystems, and health. However, nationwide drought assessments are currently lacking and impacted by limited ground-based observations. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of large-scale teleconnections. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months, 6 months from April to September, and 12 months from October to September) applied to different gridded monthly data sets for the period 1950-2013. The Mann-Kendall test, rotated empirical orthogonal function, continuous wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analyses are used, respectively, to investigate the trend, spatio-temporal patterns, periodicity, and teleconnectivity of drought events. Results indicate that southern (northern) parts of the country experienced significant trends towards drier (wetter) conditions although substantial variability exists. Two spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts were identified - the Canadian Prairies and northern central Canada. The analyses also revealed the presence of a dominant periodicity of between 8 and 32 months in the Prairie region and between 8 and 40 months in the northern central region. These cycles of low-frequency variability are found to be associated principally with the Pacific-North American (PNA) and Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) relative to other considered large-scale climate indices. This study is the first of its kind to identify dominant periodicities in drought variability over the whole of Canada in terms of when the drought events occur, their duration, and how often they occur.

Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Y.; Shen, C.; Cheng, H.; Xu, Y.

2013-11-01

We use proxy data and modeled data from 1000 yr model simulations with a variety of climate forcings to examine the occurrence of severe events of persistent drought over eastern China during the last millennium and to diagnose the mechanisms. Results show that the model was able to simulate many aspects of the low-frequency (periods greater than 10 yr) variations of precipitation over eastern China during the last millennium, including most of the severe persistent droughts such as those in the 1130s, 1200s, 1350s, 1430s, 1480s, and the late 1630s-mid-1640s. These six droughts are identified both in the proxy data and in the modeled data and are consistent with each other in terms of drought intensity, duration, and spatial coverage. Our analyses suggest that monsoon circulation can lock into a drought-prone mode that may last for years to decades and supports the suggestion that generally reduced monsoon in eastern Asia were associated with the land-sea thermal contrast. Study on the wavelet transform and spectral analysis reveals six well-captured events occurred all at the drought stages of statistically significant 15-35 yr timescale. A modeled data intercomparison suggests that solar activity is the primary driver in the occurrence of the 1130s, 1350s, 1480s, and late 1630s-mid-1640s droughts. Although the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon variability, a temporally consistent relationship between the droughts and SST pattern in the Pacific Ocean could not be found in the model. Our analyses also indicate that large volcanic eruptions play a role as an amplifier in the drought of 1635-1645 and caused the model to overestimate the decreasing trends in summer precipitation over eastern China during the mid-1830s and the mid-1960s.

Assessment of Meteorological and Agriculture Drought Severity in Barani Areas of Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haque, Saad Ul

2016-07-01

Drought is a natural hazard and part of climatic condition for all regions of the world. It is the condition of moisture deficit caused by a certain climatic conditions occurring at a specific location for a specific duration. Stems from the lack of precipitation, precipitation deficiency for a season, a year or longer and is triggered, when water supplies become insufficient to meet the requirements. Pakistan predominantly consists of arid and semiarid regions with a diversified climate where Agriculture sector plays a vital role in countries economy, as it is the largest sector of Pakistan, accounting for over 20.9 percent of GDP. Nearly 62 percent of the country's rural population and is directly or indirectly linked with agriculture for their livelihood. (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2011). Thus, for such type of landscapes where agriculture mainly depends on the amount of precipitation and there is no use of canal irrigation system, so there is a need to make some immediate interventions in the area of drought hazard management & a proactive planning to mitigate its adverse impacts. In this study drought is assessed on its sequential stages, first of all meteorological conditions that include rainfall data and MODIS Satellite NDVI product, having good temporal resolution for drought assessment in order to identify dry spell period. This whole waterless season leads to agricultural drought as crops and vegetation begin to degrade with low production rate. Some more parameters such as Max. Temperature, Humidity, Solar Radiation, Evapotranspiration were incorporated by assigning suitable weights according to their sensitivity for drought. Severity of Agricultural drought was determine by using NDVI anomaly and crop anomaly pattern. Finally, the correlation regression analysis was performed to identify the effect of different dependent variables on their supporting parameters. The combined drought severity map was generated by overlying the agricultural and meteorological drought severity maps. Thee results shows that some areas are free from drought while other study area is under different type of drought. The area under severe to very severe drought conditions is 49.6% and 19.92% respectively of the total study area which indicate that almost 80% area is prone to drought. Although the drought frequency is very low in this area but its intensity effects major productive crops and therefore livelihood of local settlements.

Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extreme events in China during 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yuehong; Wu, Junmei; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Yonghe

2015-08-01

This study investigates frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes based on annual maximum of daily precipitation (AMP) data of 753 observation stations in China during the period 1951-2010. Several statistical methods including L-moments, Mann-Kendall test (MK test), Student's t test ( t test) and analysis of variance ( F-test) are used to study different statistical properties related to frequency and spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the AMP series of most sites have no linear trends at 90 % confidence level, but there is a distinctive decrease trend in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. The analysis of abrupt changes shows that there are no significant changes in most sites, and no distinctive regional patterns within the mutation sites either. An important innovation different from the previous studies is the shift in the mean and the variance which are also studied in this paper in order to further analyze the changes of strong and weak precipitation extreme events. The shift analysis shows that we should pay more attention to the drought in North China and to the flood control and drought in South China, especially to those regions that have no clear trend and have a significant shift in the variance. More important, this study conducts the comprehensive analysis of a complete set of quantile estimates and its spatiotemporal characteristic in China. Spatial distribution of quantile estimation based on the AMP series demonstrated that the values gradually increased from the Northwest to the Southeast with the increment of duration and return period, while the increasing rate of estimation is smooth in the arid and semiarid region and is rapid in humid region. Frequency estimates of 50-year return period are in agreement with the maximum observations of AMP series in the most stations, which can provide more quantitative and scientific basis for decision making.

Drought assessment in the Dongliao River basin: traditional approaches vs. generalized drought assessment index based on water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, B. S.; Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Liu, J. H.; Yang, Z. Y.; Qin, T. L.; Yin, J.

2015-08-01

Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960-2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

Surface and groundwater drought evaluation with respect to aquatic habitat quality in the upper Nitra River Basin in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fendekova, M.; Fendek, M.; Macura, V.; Kralova, J.

2012-04-01

Hydrological drought is being broadly studied within last decades in many countries. It is because of increasing frequency of drought periods occurrence also in mild climate conditions, leading to unexpected and undesired consequences for environment and various spheres of the state economy. Drought affects water availability for plants, animals and human society. Natural conditions of drought occurrence are often combined with human activities strengthening drought consequences. Lack of water in the nature, connected to meteorological and hydrological drought occurrence, increases at the same time needs for surface and groundwater in many types of human activities (agriculture, industrial production, electric power generation…). Drought can be identified within the low flow phase of the flow regime. Flow regime is considered for one of the most important conditions influencing quality of the river ecosystems. Occurrence of meteorological, surface and groundwater droughts was analyzed for the upper part of the Nitra River catchment in Slovakia. Drought occurrence was studied in two gauging profiles on the Nitra River - in Klacno and Nedozery, both representing the headwater profiles. The threshold level method was used for groundwater drought analysis. Base flow values were separated from the discharge hydrograms using the HydroOffice 2010 statistical program package. The influence of surface water drought on groundwater level was analyzed. Habitat suitability curves derived according to IFIM methodology were constructed for different fish species at Nedozery profile. The influence of different low flow values from 600 to 150 L/s on fish amount, size and species variability was studied. In the end, the minimum flow, bellow which unfavourable life conditions occur, was estimated. The results showed the necessity of taking into account the ecological parameters when estimating the ecological status of surface water bodies. Such an approach is fully compatible with the requirements of the Directive 2000/60/EC and with the integrated water resources management strategy. Acknowledgment: The research was done with the financial support of the VEGA project grant No. 1/1327/12.

Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

Groundwater quality surrounding Lake Texoma during short-term drought conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kampbell, D.H.; An, Y.-J.; Jewell, K.P.; Masoner, J.R.

2003-01-01

Water quality data from 55 monitoring wells during drought conditions surrounding Lake Texoma, located on the border of Oklahoma and Texas, was compared to assess the influence of drought on groundwater quality. During the drought month of October, water table levels were three feet (0.9 m) lower compared with several months earlier under predrought climate conditions. Detection frequencies of nitrate (> 0.1 mg/l), orthophosphates (> 0.1 mg/l), chlorides (> MCL), and sulfates (> MCL) all increased during drought. Orthophosphate level was higher during drought. Largest increases in concentration were nitrate under both agriculture lands and in septic tank areas. An increase in ammonium-nitrogen was only detected in the septic tank area. The study showed that stressors such as nitrate and total salts could potentially become a health or environmental problem during drought.

Past and Future Drought Regimes in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Burak; Topcu, Sevilay; Turkes, Murat; Sen, Baha

2010-05-01

Climate variability in the 20th century was characterized by apparent precipitation variability at both temporal and spatial scales. In addition to the well-known characteristic seasonal and year-to-year variability, some marked and long-term changes in precipitation occurred in Turkey, particularly after the early 1970s. Drought, originating from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended time period (which is usually a season or more) has become a recurring phenomenon in Turkey in the past few decades. Spatially coherent with the significant drought events since early 1970s, water stress and shortages for all water user sectors have also reached their critical points in Turkey. Analyzing the historical occurrence of drought provides an understanding of the range of climate possibilities for a country, resulting in more informed management decision-making. However, future projections about spatial and temporal changes in drought characteristics such as frequency, intensity and duration can be challenging for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Hence, the objectives of this study are (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, (2) to predict potential intensity, frequency and duration of droughts in Turkey for the future (2070-2100). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Percent to Normal Index (PNI) have been used to assess the drought characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 52 stations (representative of all kinds of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). The future rainfall series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM3) for IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario conditions. For verification of RegCM3 simulations, the model was performed for the reference period and simulated rainfall data were used for computing two drought indices (SPI and PNI) for the 1960-1990 period. Then, to proof the capturing capacity of the RegCM3, these results for the reference period were compared with SPI and PNI values calculated using observed climatic data. The validated climate model was used for performing climatic data for the future 30-year period, and using the projected climate data, the SPI and PNI values were computed for the future conditions, which indicates the drought events within future 30- year period. Furthermore, to determine the likely changes between reference and future periods, the projected future rainfall series was compared with the average rainfall amount derived from the reference period in SPI and PNI calculations. Finally, the maps were drawn to determine the spatial changes of droughts. RegCM3 model could capture the climatic data and also the drought indices well. The study results showed that drought conditions are diverse in the country, and also increasing trends for intensity, frequency and duration were detected. At regional scale, the Eastern part of Marmara, Black Sea Region and northern and eastern parts of the East Anatolia Regions are characterized by wetter conditions. Particularly severe drought conditions are expected in the Western Mediterranean and Aegean Regions, although other regions of the country will also confront with more frequent, intense and long lasting droughts. Both indices SPI and PNI yielded similar results for the reference as well as future period. Most of the rain-fed and irrigated areas as well as the major share of the surface water resources are located in the drought-vulnerable regions of the country. Other water user sectors including urban, industry and touristic places will also be affected from the worsened conditions. Thus, increasing frequency, severity and prolonged duration of drought events may have significant consequences for food production and socio-economic conditions in Turkey.

Potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yield variability under a changing climate in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

2017-12-01

Texas has the largest farm area in the U.S, and its revenue from crop production ranks third overall. With the changing climate, hydrological extremes such as droughts are becoming more frequent and intensified, causing significant yield reduction in rainfed agricultural systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yields (corn, sorghum, and wheat) under a changing climate in Texas. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over 10 major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed in this study.The model is forced by a set of statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that represent different greenhouse gas concentration (4.5 and 8.5 w/m2 are selected in this study). To carry out the analysis, VIC simulations from 1950 to 2099 are first analyzed to investigate how the frequency and severity of agricultural droughts will be altered in Texas (under a changing climate). Second, future crop yields are projected using a statistical crop model. Third, the effects of agricultural drought on crop yields are quantitatively analyzed. The results are expected to contribute to future water resources planning, with a goal of mitigating the negative impacts of future droughts on agricultural production in Texas.

Adaptation measures to drought in Mongolian rangeland: The long-distant movement of people and livestock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakinuma, K.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Coping with droughts are one of the most important issues in arid and semi-arid regions. Mongolia, where are located in central Asia, are concerned the increase of droughts in the future (IPCC 2014). Mongolia has long history of livestock grazing. Herders have developed the mobile grazing systems to use spatiotemporal variable vegetation. Especially, they often take a rapid and long-distant movement to avoid drought condition ("otor" in Mongolia). The movement is a main adaptation measure to droughts for herders, and it would be applicable to other regions where will be increase the frequency of droughts in the future. However there are few knowledge about processes and actual conditions of the long-distant movement of herders and livestock across Mongolia. Therefore our objective is to discuss the long-distance movement as adaptation measures to droughts. Mongolia has a climatic gradient along the latitude; rainfall variability in southern regions are higher than that in northern regions. Previous theoretical studies predicted that rainfall variability affect the grazing strategies. Based on them, we established two hypotheses about the relationship between climatic variability and the form of long distant movement. (1) The long-distance movement likely occur in southern regions because the frequency of drought are higher in southern regions than in northern regions (2) Cooperation among herders, such as acceptance of livestock that from other prefectures, are likely occur in southern regions while exclusive management are likely occur in northern regions. We interviewed to local herders, decision makers about the long-distant movement, and investigated the number of livestock that across the border of prefectures in recent year across Mongolia. We will discuss long-distant movements as an adaptation measure to drought thorough these results.

Droughts in India from 1981 to 2013 and Implications to Wheat Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiang; Obringer, Renee; Wei, Chehan; Chen, Nengcheng; Niyogi, Dev

2017-03-01

Understanding drought from multiple perspectives is critical due to its complex interactions with crop production, especially in India. However, most studies only provide singular view of drought and lack the integration with specific crop phenology. In this study, four time series of monthly meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture, and vegetation droughts from 1981 to 2013 were reconstructed for the first time. The wheat growth season (from October to April) was particularly analyzed. In this study, not only the most severe and widespread droughts were identified, but their spatial-temporal distributions were also analyzed alone and concurrently. The relationship and evolutionary process among these four types of droughts were also quantified. The role that the Green Revolution played in drought evolution was also studied. Additionally, the trends of drought duration, frequency, extent, and severity were obtained. Finally, the relationship between crop yield anomalies and all four kinds of drought during the wheat growing season was established. These results provide the knowledge of the most influential drought type, conjunction, spatial-temporal distributions and variations for wheat production in India. This study demonstrates a novel approach to study drought from multiple views and integrate it with crop growth, thus providing valuable guidance for local drought mitigation.

Multisource Data-Based Integrated Agricultural Drought Monitoring in the Huai River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Peng; Zhang, Qiang; Wen, Qingzhi; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun

2017-10-01

Drought monitoring is critical for early warning of drought hazard. This study attempted to develop an integrated remote sensing drought monitoring index (IRSDI), based on meteorological data for 2003-2013 from 40 meteorological stations and soil moisture data from 16 observatory stations, as well as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using a linear trend detection method, and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. The objective was to investigate drought conditions across the Huai River basin in both space and time. Results indicate that (1) the proposed IRSDI monitors and describes drought conditions across the Huai River basin reasonably well in both space and time; (2) frequency of drought and severe drought are observed during April-May and July-September. The northeastern and eastern parts of Huai River basin are dominated by frequent droughts and intensified drought events. These regions are dominated by dry croplands, grasslands, and highly dense population and are hence more sensitive to drought hazards; (3) intensified droughts are detected during almost all months except January, August, October, and December. Besides, significant intensification of droughts is discerned mainly in eastern and western Huai River basin. The duration and regions dominated by intensified drought events would be a challenge for water resources management in view of agricultural and other activities in these regions in a changing climate.

A introduction of a Scientific Research Program on Chinese Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought is one of the major meteorological disasters, with high frequencies, wide distributions and serious conditions. It is one of the biggest impacts on global agricultural productions, ecological environment and socioeconomic sustainable developments. China is particularly one of the countries in the world with serious drought disasters. The goal of this project is improving the capabilities in drought monitoring and forecasting based on an in-depth theories of drought. The project will be implemented in the typical extreme drought area based on comprehensive and systemic observation network and numerical experiments It will show a complete feedback mechanism among the atmospheric, water, biological and other spheres for forming drought. First, the atmospheric droughts that leads to agriculture and hydrologic drought and the possible causes for these disasters will be explored using our observation data sets. Second, the capability of monitoring, forecasting and early warning for drought will be developed with numerical model (regional climate model and land surface model, etc.). Last but not the least, evaluation approaches for the risk of drought and the strategy of predicting/prohibiting the drought at regional scale will be proposed. Meanwhile, service system and information sharing platform of drought monitoring and early warning will be established to improve the technical level of drought disaster preparedness and response in China.

Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

PubMed Central

Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

2009-01-01

Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

Historical perspective of statewide streamflows during the 2002 and 1977 droughts in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

2005-01-01

Since 1890, Colorado has experienced a number of widespread drought periods; the most recent statewide drought began during 1999 and includes 2002, a year characterized by precipitation, snowpack accumulation, and streamflows that were much lower than normal. Because the drought of 2002 had a substantial effect on streamflows in Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, began a study in 2004 to analyze statewide streamflows during 2002 and develop a historical perspective of those streamflows. The purpose of this report is to describe an analysis of streamflows recorded throughout Colorado during the drought of 2002, as well as other drought years such as 1977, and to provide some historical perspective of drought-diminished streamflows in Colorado. Because most streamflows in Colorado are derived from melting of mountain snowpacks during April through July, streamflows primarily were analyzed for the snowmelt (high-flow) period, but streamflows also were analyzed for the winter (low-flow) period. The snowmelt period is defined as April 1 through September 30 and the winter period is defined as October 1 through March 31. Historical daily average streamflows were analyzed on the basis of 7, 30, 90, and 180 consecutive-day periods (N-day) for 154 selected stations in Colorado. Methods used for analysis of the N-day snowmelt and winter streamflows include evaluation of trends in the historical streamflow records, computation of the rank of each annual N-day streamflow value for each station, analysis for years other than 2002 and 1977 with drought-diminished streamflows, and frequency analysis (on the basis of nonexceedance probability) of the 180-day streamflows. Ranking analyses for the N-day snowmelt streamflows indicated that streamflows during 2002 were ranked as the lowest or second lowest historical values at 114-123 stations, or about 74-80 percent of the stations; by comparison, the N-day snowmelt streamflows during 1977 were ranked as the lowest or second lowest historical values at 69-87 stations, or about 47-59 percent of the stations. Many of the stations in the mountainous headwaters where snowmelt streamflows were ranked lowest during 2002 were ranked second lowest during 1977. These results indicate that snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were considerably more diminished than those during 1977. The 180-day snowmelt streamflows were ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 90 percent of the stations during 2002 and were ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 77 percent of the stations during 1977. Other years during which the 180-day snowmelt streamflows were ranked among the five lowest values at a substantial percentage of stations include 1934, 1954, 1963, and 1981, but the percentages of stations with 180-day snowmelt streamflows ranked among the five lowest values were smaller during those years than during 2002 and 1977. Frequency analysis of snowmelt streamflows indicated that recurrence intervals for the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were greater than 50 years for about 57 percent of the stations and were more than 100 years for about 14 percent of the stations. By comparison, recurrence intervals for the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during 1977 were greater than 50 years only for about 15 percent of the stations and were more than 100 years only for about 1 percent of the stations. Generally, snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were more diminished and have higher recurrence intervals than snowmelt streamflows during 1977. The N-day winter streamflows during 2002 and 1977 were not ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 86-103 stations, or about 58-70 percent of the stations, compared to about 10-27 percent of the stations for the N-day snowmelt streamflows. These results indicate that winter streamflows during the 2002 and 1977 droughts were diminished to a lesser extent than t

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydro climatic conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological paradigm for many regions. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently impacted North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia, and Australia result...

Drought will not leave your glass empty: Low risk of hydraulic failure revealed by long-term drought observations in world's top wine regions.

PubMed

Charrier, Guillaume; Delzon, Sylvain; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Zhang, Li; Delmas, Chloe E L; Merlin, Isabelle; Corso, Deborah; King, Andrew; Ojeda, Hernan; Ollat, Nathalie; Prieto, Jorge A; Scholach, Thibaut; Skinner, Paul; van Leeuwen, Cornelis; Gambetta, Gregory A

2018-01-01

Grapevines are crops of global economic importance that will face increasing drought stress because many varieties are described as highly sensitive to hydraulic failure as frequency and intensity of summer drought increase. We developed and used novel approaches to define water stress thresholds for preventing hydraulic failure, which were compared to the drought stress experienced over a decade in two of the world's top wine regions, Napa and Bordeaux. We identified the physiological thresholds for drought-induced mortality in stems and leaves and found small intervarietal differences. Long-term observations in Napa and Bordeaux revealed that grapevines never reach their lethal water-potential thresholds under seasonal droughts, owing to a vulnerability segmentation promoting petiole embolism and leaf mortality. Our findings will aid farmers in reducing water use without risking grapevine hydraulic integrity.

Changes in the Mechanisms Causing Rapid Drought Cessation in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Justin T.; Knapp, Paul A.; Ortegren, Jason T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Soulé, Peter T.

2017-12-01

The synoptic processes that end droughts are poorly understood, yet have significant climatological implications. Here we examined the spatiotemporal patterns of rapid drought cessation (RDC) in the southeastern United States during the1979-2013 warm season (April-November) for three storm types: Frontal, Tropical, and Air mass. We defined RDC as a 1 month shift in soil moisture sufficient to alleviate an existing drought. We found that 73% of all warm-season droughts were ended by RDC events and the three storm-type groups ended droughts over similar spatial areas. Frontal storms were the most frequent mechanism for RDC events, yet their occurrences significantly decreased and were negatively related to increases in Northern Hemisphere air temperatures. Projected future warming in the Northern Hemisphere suggests a continued decline in the frequency and relative contribution of Frontal storms as RDC events, potentially influencing the timing and spatial scale of drought cessation in the southeastern U.S.

Drought will not leave your glass empty: Low risk of hydraulic failure revealed by long-term drought observations in world’s top wine regions

PubMed Central

Charrier, Guillaume; Delzon, Sylvain; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Zhang, Li; Delmas, Chloe E. L.; Merlin, Isabelle; Corso, Deborah; King, Andrew; Ojeda, Hernan; Ollat, Nathalie; Prieto, Jorge A.; Scholach, Thibaut; Skinner, Paul; van Leeuwen, Cornelis; Gambetta, Gregory A.

2018-01-01

Grapevines are crops of global economic importance that will face increasing drought stress because many varieties are described as highly sensitive to hydraulic failure as frequency and intensity of summer drought increase. We developed and used novel approaches to define water stress thresholds for preventing hydraulic failure, which were compared to the drought stress experienced over a decade in two of the world’s top wine regions, Napa and Bordeaux. We identified the physiological thresholds for drought-induced mortality in stems and leaves and found small intervarietal differences. Long-term observations in Napa and Bordeaux revealed that grapevines never reach their lethal water-potential thresholds under seasonal droughts, owing to a vulnerability segmentation promoting petiole embolism and leaf mortality. Our findings will aid farmers in reducing water use without risking grapevine hydraulic integrity. PMID:29404405

Spatially-Explicit Holocene Drought Reconstructions in Amazonian Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMichael, C.; Bush, M. B.

2014-12-01

Climate models predict increasing drought in Amazonian forests over the next century, and the synergy of drought and fire may lead to forest dieback. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are two primary drivers of Amazonian drought, and each process has a spatially distinct manifestation in the Basin. Paleoecological reconstructions can contextualize the forest response to past drought periods. Stalagmite and lake sediment records have documented that the early- to mid-Holocene, i.e. 10,000 - 5000 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), was among the driest periods of the last 100,000 years in western Amazonia. Climatic conditions became wetter and more similar to the modern climate over the last 4000 cal yr BP, and fires rarely occurred in the absence of human activity. Yet there are currently no drought and fire reconstructions that examine the spatially explicit patterns of drought during the Holocene. Here, we present regional drought histories from southwestern and northeastern sections Amazonia for the last 10,000 years that document the drought-fire dynamics resulting from both climatic processes. Our reconstructions were based on a compilation of dated soil charcoal fragments (N= 291) collected from within Amazonia sensu stricto, which were analyzed by region using summed probability analysis. The compiled soil charcoal dates contained limited evidence of fire over the last 10,000 years in some regions. Fire frequency rose markedly across the Basin, however, during the last 2000 years, indicating an increased human presence. Fire probabilities, and thus droughts, had similar increasing trajectories between southwestern and northeastern Amazonia from 1500-1100 cal yr BP, which decoupled from 1100-740 cal yr BP, and then regained synchronicity from 740-500 cal yr BP. Fire probability declined markedly after 500 yr cal BP, coincident with European arrival to the Americas. Native populations were decimated, and fire probabilities returned to similar levels before the rise 2000 years ago. These results suggested that the synergy of humans plus drought have played a large role in historical fire regimes in Amazonian forests for the last 2000 years.

Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovino, Miguel A.; Müller, Omar V.; Müller, Gabriela V.; Sgroi, Leandro C.; Baethgen, Walter E.

2018-06-01

This study examines the joint variability of precipitation, river streamflow and temperature over northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of their links with global SST forcing; and discusses their impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. The leading patterns of variability, and their nonlinear trends and cycles are identified by means of a principal component analysis (PCA) complemented with a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Interannual hydroclimatic variability centers on two broad frequency bands: one of 2.5-6.5 years corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicities and the second of about 9 years. The higher frequencies of the precipitation variability (2.5-4 years) favored extreme events after 2000, even during moderate extreme phases of the ENSO. Minimum temperature is correlated with ENSO with a main frequency close to 3 years. Maximum temperature time series correlate well with SST variability over the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans with a 9-year frequency. Interdecadal variability is characterized by low-frequency trends and multidecadal oscillations that have induced a transition from dryer and cooler climate to wetter and warmer decades starting in the mid-twentieth century. The Paraná River streamflow is influenced by North and South Atlantic SSTs with bidecadal periodicities. The hydroclimate variability at all timescales had significant sectoral impacts. Frequent wet events between 1970 and 2005 favored floods that affected agricultural and livestock productivity and forced population displacements. On the other hand, agricultural droughts resulted in soil moisture deficits that affected crops at critical growth stages. Hydrological droughts affected surface water resources, causing water and food scarcity and stressing the capacity for hydropower generation. Lastly, increases in minimum temperature reduced wheat and barley yields.

Spatiotemporal characterization of current and future droughts in the High Atlas basins (Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zkhiri, Wiam; Tramblay, Yves; Hanich, Lahoucine; Jarlan, Lionel; Ruelland, Denis

2018-02-01

Over the past decades, drought has become a major concern in Morocco due to the importance of agriculture in the economy of the country. In the present work, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to monitor the evolution, frequency, and severity of droughts in the High Atlas basins (N'Fis, Ourika, Rhéraya, Zat, and R'dat), located south of Marrakech city. The spatiotemporal characterization of drought in these basins is performed by computing the SPI with precipitation spatially interpolated over the catchments. The Haouz plain, located downstream of these basins, is strongly dependent on water provided by the mountain ranges, as shown by the positive correlations between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the plain and the 3, 6, and 12-month SPI in the High Atlas catchments. On the opposite, no significant correlations are found with piezometric levels of the Haouz groundwater due to intensified pumping for irrigation in the recent decades. A relative SPI index was computed to evaluate the climate change impacts on drought occurrence, based on the projected precipitation (2006-2100) from five high-resolution CORDEX regional climate simulations, under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). These models show a decrease in precipitation towards the future up to - 65% compared to the historical period. In terms of drought events, the future projections indicate a strong increase in the frequency of SPI events below - 2, considered as severe drought condition.

Trend Detection and Bivariate Frequency Analysis for Nonstrationary Rainfall Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joo, K.; Kim, H.; Shin, J. Y.; Heo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Multivariate frequency analysis has been developing for hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, flood, and drought. Particularly, the copula has been used as a useful tool for multivariate probability model which has no limitation on deciding marginal distributions. The time-series rainfall data can be characterized to rainfall event by inter-event time definition (IETD) and each rainfall event has a rainfall depth and rainfall duration. In addition, nonstationarity in rainfall event has been studied recently due to climate change and trend detection of rainfall event is important to determine the data has nonstationarity or not. With the rainfall depth and duration of a rainfall event, trend detection and nonstationary bivariate frequency analysis has performed in this study. 62 stations from Korea Meteorological Association (KMA) over 30 years of hourly recorded data used in this study and the suitability of nonstationary copula for rainfall event has examined by the goodness-of-fit test.

Parsimonious nonstationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serago, Jake M.; Vogel, Richard M.

2018-02-01

There is now widespread awareness of the impact of anthropogenic influences on extreme floods (and droughts) and thus an increasing need for methods to account for such influences when estimating a frequency distribution. We introduce a parsimonious approach to nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NFFA) based on a bivariate regression equation which describes the relationship between annual maximum floods, x, and an exogenous variable which may explain the nonstationary behavior of x. The conditional mean, variance and skewness of both x and y = ln (x) are derived, and combined with numerous common probability distributions including the lognormal, generalized extreme value and log Pearson type III models, resulting in a very simple and general approach to NFFA. Our approach offers several advantages over existing approaches including: parsimony, ease of use, graphical display, prediction intervals, and opportunities for uncertainty analysis. We introduce nonstationary probability plots and document how such plots can be used to assess the improved goodness of fit associated with a NFFA.

The role of mountain precipitation as a drought buffer in Puerto Rico: Assessing natural systems' resilience to change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, M. A.; Clark, K. E.; Van Beusekom, A.; Shanley, J. B.; Torres-Sanchez, A.; Murphy, S. F.; Gonzalez, G.

2017-12-01

Like many island and coastal areas, the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico receive orographic precipitation (rain and cloud water), maintaining headwater streamflow and allowing diverse forest ecosystems to thrive. Although rainfall from regional-scale convective systems is greater in volume, multiple lines of evidence (stable isotope tracers; precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity; cloud immersion; regional cloud dynamics; weather analysis) show that trade-wind orographic precipitation contributes significantly to streamflow, soil water, and shallow groundwater. Ceilometer data and time-lapse photography of cloud-immersed conditions at the mountain indicated a seasonally invariant, sustained overnight regime of cloud water precipitation, in addition to the abundant rainfall in the mountains. Rising ocean temperatures and a warming tropical climate lead to questions about persistence of the trade-wind associated orographic precipitation and the resilience of similar mountain ecosystems to change. Projections for Caribbean climate change include amplification of trade winds; less frequent, more intense large convective systems; and a warming ocean. These may have opposing effects on mountain precipitation, increasing uncertainty about processes that mitigate drought. Field studies provide insights regarding these questions. Ceilometer and satellite observations showed cloud base is higher over the mountains than in the surrounding Caribbean region; with the trade-wind inversion cap, further rise in cloud base may produce shallower clouds and reduced precipitation. We analyzed the February-October 2015 drought, characterized by strong El Niño conditions, an absence of tropical storm systems, and reduced convection in easterly waves. Combined δ2H, δ18O and d-excess signatures of streamflow indicated precipitation was derived from shallow convective systems, trade-wind showers and cloud water. During severe drought on the island, streamflow-sustaining rainfall at the mountain station at 640 m persisted, albeit with 19% lower frequency and 52% fewer large (>10 mm) rain events than the 20-year average. Clearly, resilience of the mountain forest ecosystem and of streamflow to drought periods depends on orographic precipitation.

Crop yield risk analysis and mitigation of smallholder farmers at quaternary catchment level: Case study of B72A in Olifants river basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magombeyi, Manuel S.; Taigbenu, Akpofure E.

Currently, Sub-Sahara is experiencing increased frequency of disasters either as floods or droughts which depletes the scarce resources available to sustain increasing populations. Success in preventing food shortages in the African continent can only be achieved by understanding the vulnerability and risk of the majority of smallholder farmers under rainfed and supplementary irrigation coupled with appropriate interventions. Increased frequency of floods, droughts and dry spells pose an increasing threat to the smallholder farmers’ food security and water resources availability in B72A quaternary catchment of the Olifants river basin in South Africa. This paper links maize crop yield risk and smallholder farmer vulnerability arising from droughts by applying a set of interdisciplinary indicators (physical and socio-economic) encompassing gender and institutional vulnerabilities. For the study area, the return period of droughts and dry spells was 2 years. The growing season for maize crop was 121 days on average. Soil water deficit during critical growth stages may reduce potential yields by up to 62%, depending on the length and severity of the moisture deficit. To minimize grain yield loss and avoid total crop failures from intra-seasonal dry spells, farmers applied supplementary irrigation either from river water or rainwater harvested into small reservoirs. Institutional vulnerability was evidenced by disjointed water management institutions with lack of comprehension of roles of higher level institutions by lower level ones. Women are most hit by droughts as they derived more than 90% of their family income from agriculture activities. An enhanced understanding of the vulnerability and risk exposure will assist in developing technologies and policies that conform to the current livelihood strategies of smallholder, resource-constrained farmers. Development of such knowledge base for a catchment opens avenues for computational modeling of the impacts of different types of disasters under different scenarios.

Spatiotemporal Variability of the Meteorological Drought in Romania using the Standardized Precipitation Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheval, Sorin; Busuioc, Aristita; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Birsan, Marius-Victor

2013-04-01

Drought events occur over any geographical area, and may impact severely the environment and society. In terms of economic losses, droughts are one of the major natural hazards affecting Romania, so that the topic has been constantly approached. In general, the climatic projections over the 21st century display increasing temperatures and very likely declining summer precipitation (Busuioc et al., 2010), probably causing better drought conditions. This study examines the variability of the droughts in Romania, aiming to characterize the droughts intensity, durations and frequency (a), to identify spatial and temporal patterns (b), trends (c), and potential triggering factors (d). Besides, we consider comparing the performance of different instances of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993), such as time scale and probability distribution functions (gamma and Pearson type III), for retrieving drought characteristics. Homogenous monthly precipitation amounts from 98 weather stations run by the Romanian Meteorological Administration covering the period 1961-2010 were the primary data for calculating 1, 3, 6, and 12-month time scale SPI. The Mann-Kendall statistics sustained the trend significance examination, while Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis synthesizes the climate signal related to spatial and temporal characteristics of variability over Romania. The SPI variability over Romania is mainly influenced by the large-scale mechanisms (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) accounting for more than 50% from the observed variance, on second place being the Carpathians accounting for the highest influence in winter (11%). Thus, the Carpathians separate Romania in two major regions in terms of drought characteristics, namely outside and inside the mountainous arch. Significant trends towards dry conditions are noted at very few stations in winter, spring and summer, while trend to precipitation surplus cover extended areas in autumn. Further, preliminary analysis has demonstrated that NAO and AMO influence the characteristics of the meteorological drought over Romania, and qualify as possible predictors in water deficit studies. However, a stronger connection was found between the time series associated to SPI EOF1 and sea level pressure EOF1 over the region 5°E-45°E, 30°N-55°N. The work has been financed by the research project Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania (CLIMHYDEX), Cod PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, sponsored by the National Authority for Scientific Research.

Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennett, Amy C.; McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.

2015-01-01

The frequency of severe droughts is increasing in many regions around the world as a result of climate change. Droughts alter the structure and function of forests. Site- and region-specific studies suggest that large trees, which play keystone roles in forests and can be disproportionately important to ecosystem carbon storage and hydrology, exhibit greater sensitivity to drought than small trees. Here, we synthesize data on tree growth and mortality collected during 40 drought events in forests worldwide to see whether this size-dependent sensitivity to drought holds more widely. We find that droughts consistently had a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality rates of larger trees. Moreover, drought-related mortality increased with tree size in 65% of the droughts examined, especially when community-wide mortality was high or when bark beetles were present. The more pronounced drought sensitivity of larger trees could be underpinned by greater inherent vulnerability to hydraulic stress, the higher radiation and evaporative demand experienced by exposed crowns, and the tendency for bark beetles to preferentially attack larger trees. We suggest that future droughts will have a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality of larger trees, potentially exacerbating feedbacks to climate change.

Contribution of Temperature to Chilean Droughts Using Ensemble Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alfieri, L.; Naumann, G.; Garreaud, R. D.

2017-12-01

Precipitation deficit is traditionally considered as the main driver of drought events, however the evolution of drought conditions is also influenced by other variables such as temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration. In view of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures may lead to increased socio-economic drought impacts, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. In this work, we used two drought indices to analyze the impacts of precipitation and temperature on the frequency, severity and duration of Chilean droughts (25°S-56°S) during the XXI century, using multi-model climate projections consistent with the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. An ensemble of seven global CMIP5 simulations were used to drive the Earth System Model EC-EARTH3-HR v3.1 over the 1976-2100 period, in order to increase the spatial resolution from the original grid to 0.35°. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe the impact of precipitation on drought conditions, while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to assess the effect of temperature -throughout changes in potential evapotranspiration- on drought characteristics at different time scales. Drought indices along with duration, severity and frequency of drought events were computed for a 30-year baseline period (1976-2005) and then compared to three 30-year periods representing short, medium and long-term scenarios (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Indices obtained from climate simulations during the baseline period were compared against the corresponding values derived from ground observations. Results obtained with SPI-12 reveal a progressive decrease in precipitation in Chile, which is consistent through all climate models, though each of them shows a different spatial pattern. Simulations based on SPEI-12 show that the expected increase in evaporative demand (driven by the temperature increase) for the region is likely to exacerbate the severity and duration of drought events. Findings of this work are an important support for timely preparation of drought adaptation and mitigation plans to improve water management strategies and resilience during the XXI century.

Loss of ecosystem productivity with repeated drought: a multi-year experiment to assess the role of drought legacy effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Slette, I.; Wilcox, K.

2017-12-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Yet, little is known about the factors that determine recovery of ecosystem function post-drought. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on drought legacy effects (e.g., loss key plant populations, altered community structure and/or biogeochemical processes). These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. With forecasts of more frequent drought, there is an imperative to understand whether and how post-drought legacies will affect ecosystem response to future drought events. To address this knowledge gap, we experimentally imposed over an eight year period two extreme growing season droughts, each two years in duration followed by a two-year recovery period, in a central US grassland. We found that aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) declined dramatically with the first drought and was accompanied by a large shift in plant species composition (loss of C3 forb and increase in C4 grasses). This drought legacy - shift in plant composition - persisted two years post-drought. Yet, despite this legacy, ANPP recovered fully. However, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be less sensitive to a second extreme drought due to the shift in plant composition. Contrary to this expectation, previously droughted grassland experienced a greater loss in ANPP than grassland that had not experienced drought. Furthermore, previously droughted grassland did not fully recover after the second drought. Thus, the legacy of drought - a shift in plant community composition - increased ecosystem sensitivity to a future extreme drought event.

Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Widlansky, Matthew J; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Stott, Lowell

2017-07-26

Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate's response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10-23 and 10-45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.

The impact of precipitation regimes on forest fires in Yunnan Province, southwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Niu, Shukui; Tong, Xiaojuan; Zhao, Jinlong; Sun, Yu; He, Tengfei

2014-01-01

The amount, frequency, and duration of precipitation have important impact on the occurrence and severity of forest fires. To fully understand the effects of precipitation regimes on forest fires, a drought index was developed with number of consecutive dry days (daily precipitation less than 2 mm) and total precipitation, and the relationships of drought and precipitation with fire activities were investigated over two periods (i.e., 1982-1988 and 1989-2008) in five ecoregions of Yunnan Province. The results showed that precipitation regime had a significant relationship with fire activities during the two periods. However, the influence of the drought on fire activities varied by ecoregions, with more impacts in drier ecoregions IV-V and less impacts in the more humid ecoregions I-III. The drought was more closely related to fire activities than precipitation during the two study periods, especially in the drier ecoregions, indicating that the frequency and the duration of precipitation had significant influences on forest fires in the drier areas. Drought appears to offer a better explanation than total precipitation on temporal changes in fire regimes across the five ecoregions in Yunnan. Our findings have significant implications for forecasting the local fire dangers under the future climate change.

Wildfire and drought dynamics destabilize carbon stores of fire-suppressed forests.

PubMed

Earles, J Mason; North, Malcolm P; Hurteau, Matthew D

2014-06-01

Widespread fire suppression and thinning have altered the structure and composition of many forests in the western United States, making them more susceptible to the synergy of large-scale drought and fire events. We examine how these changes affect carbon storage and stability compared to historic fire-adapted conditions. We modeled carbon dynamics under possible drought and fire conditions over a 300-year simulation period in two mixed-conifer conditions common in the western United States: (1) pine-dominated with an active fire regime and (2) fir-dominated, fire suppressed forests. Fir-dominated stands, with higher live- and dead-wood density, had much lower carbon stability as drought and fire frequency increased compared to pine-dominated forest. Carbon instability resulted from species (i.e., fir's greater susceptibility to drought and fire) and stand (i.e., high density of smaller trees) conditions that develop in the absence of active management. Our modeling suggests restoring historic species composition and active fire regimes can significantly increase carbon stability in fire-suppressed, mixed-conifer forests. Long-term management of forest carbon should consider the relative resilience of stand structure and composition to possible increases in disturbance frequency and intensity under changing climate.

The predictability of reported drought events and impacts in the Ebro Basin using six different remote sensing data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linés, Clara; Werner, Micha; Bastiaanssen, Wim

2017-09-01

The implementation of drought management plans contributes to reduce the wide range of adverse impacts caused by water shortage. A crucial element of the development of drought management plans is the selection of appropriate indicators and their associated thresholds to detect drought events and monitor the evolution. Drought indicators should be able to detect emerging drought processes that will lead to impacts with sufficient anticipation to allow measures to be undertaken effectively. However, in the selection of appropriate drought indicators, the connection to the final impacts is often disregarded. This paper explores the utility of remotely sensed data sets to detect early stages of drought at the river basin scale and determine how much time can be gained to inform operational land and water management practices. Six different remote sensing data sets with different spectral origins and measurement frequencies are considered, complemented by a group of classical in situ hydrologic indicators. Their predictive power to detect past drought events is tested in the Ebro Basin. Qualitative (binary information based on media records) and quantitative (crop yields) data of drought events and impacts spanning a period of 12 years are used as a benchmark in the analysis. Results show that early signs of drought impacts can be detected up to 6 months before impacts are reported in newspapers, with the best correlation-anticipation relationships for the standard precipitation index (SPI), the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and evapotranspiration (ET). Soil moisture (SM) and land surface temperature (LST) offer also good anticipation but with weaker correlations, while gross primary production (GPP) presents moderate positive correlations only for some of the rain-fed areas. Although classical hydrological information from water levels and water flows provided better anticipation than remote sensing indicators in most of the areas, correlations were found to be weaker. The indicators show a consistent behaviour with respect to the different levels of crop yield in rain-fed areas among the analysed years, with SPI, NDVI and ET providing again the stronger correlations. Overall, the results confirm remote sensing products' ability to anticipate reported drought impacts and therefore appear as a useful source of information to support drought management decisions.

Quantifying the Impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño Event on California's Historic Drought to Improve Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zajic, B. N.; Lawrence, J.; Gutowski, L.; Rousseau, N. J.; Reager, J. T., II; Jackson, M. E.; Laber, J. L.; Dumas, J. L.

2016-12-01

2015 marked the arrival of the strongest El Niño ever recorded, surpassing the 1997-1998 event that brought significant precipitation to the southwestern United States. As sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific increased, it was forecasted that the 2015 event may have similar effects and alleviate what the US Drought Monitor classified as "exceptional" drought across the majority of the state of California. However, the impacts of the drought, now in its fifth year, continue to strain California water supplies. This study utilized data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Earth Observation, meteorological ground observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reservoir levels from the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to better quantify impacts of the 2015-16 El Niño event in the state of California. Specifically, monthly measurements of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from GRACE allowed for a more complete estimate of drought recovery throughout the state over the course of the 2016 water year. TWS was correlated with NOAA precipitation data (nClimDiv) in order to quantify the total current water deficit across the state. This relationship also permits the projection of future drought in California under various possible ENSO-driven precipitation scenarios. While analysis shows that ONI is not a sufficient metric for forecasting precipitation on a statewide basis, the various scenarios provide insight into the potential future of California's aggregated water resources. With drought in the Southwestern US projected to increase in general intensity, frequency, and duration, quantitative assessments of statewide water resources are becoming increasingly important. NASA GRACE TWS hydrological data presents a uniquely integrated measure to inform resource managers and decision makers.

A new precipitation and meteorological drought climatology based on weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, D.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.; Neal, R.

2017-12-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterise the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. An analysis of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a set of objectively defined weather patterns is presented. This classification system, introduced last year, is currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. The classification consists of 30 daily patterns derived from North Atlantic Ocean and European mean sea level pressure data. Clustering these 30 patterns yields another set of eight patterns that are intended for use in longer-range applications. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to the commonly-used Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Drought index series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for different drought index thresholds, representing dry, wet and drought conditions. The set of 30 weather patterns is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although the smaller set of clustered patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in the context of precipitation studies. Weather patterns associated with drought over the different UK regions are identified. This has potential forecasting application - if a model (e.g. a global seasonal forecast model) can predict weather pattern occurrences then regional drought outlooks may be derived from the forecasted weather patterns.

Drought Resilience and Water Conservation - Agency-Wide Actions and Research

EPA Science Inventory

In many areas of the United States, the frequency and duration of drought events are increasing. This pattern is expected to continue and to shift outside of historical trends, making forecasting our water quality and supply more difficult. EPA is conducting research and working ...

Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Betancourt, J.L.; Gray, S.T.; Palecki, M.A.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2008-01-01

Recent research suggests a link between drought occurrence in the conterminous United States (US) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in both the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans on decadal to multidecadal (D2M) time scales. Results show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is the most consistent indicator of D2M drought variability in the conterminous US during the 20th century, but during the 19th century the tropical Pacific is a more consistent indicator of D2 M drought. The interaction between El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the AMO explain a large part of the D2M drought variability in the conterminous US. More modeling studies are needed to reveal possible mechanisms linking low-frequency ENSO variability and the AMO with drought in the conterminous US. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Droughts in India from 1981 to 2013 and Implications to Wheat Production

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiang; Obringer, Renee; Wei, Chehan; Chen, Nengcheng; Niyogi, Dev

2017-01-01

Understanding drought from multiple perspectives is critical due to its complex interactions with crop production, especially in India. However, most studies only provide singular view of drought and lack the integration with specific crop phenology. In this study, four time series of monthly meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture, and vegetation droughts from 1981 to 2013 were reconstructed for the first time. The wheat growth season (from October to April) was particularly analyzed. In this study, not only the most severe and widespread droughts were identified, but their spatial-temporal distributions were also analyzed alone and concurrently. The relationship and evolutionary process among these four types of droughts were also quantified. The role that the Green Revolution played in drought evolution was also studied. Additionally, the trends of drought duration, frequency, extent, and severity were obtained. Finally, the relationship between crop yield anomalies and all four kinds of drought during the wheat growing season was established. These results provide the knowledge of the most influential drought type, conjunction, spatial-temporal distributions and variations for wheat production in India. This study demonstrates a novel approach to study drought from multiple views and integrate it with crop growth, thus providing valuable guidance for local drought mitigation. PMID:28294189

Drought-induced weakening of growth-temperature associations in high-elevation Iberian pines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diego Galván, J.; Büntgen, Ulf; Ginzler, Christian; Grudd, Håkan; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Labuhn, Inga; Julio Camarero, J.

2015-01-01

The growth/climate relationship of theoretically temperature-controlled high-elevation forests has been demonstrated to weaken over recent decades. This is likely due to new tree growth limiting factors, such as an increasing drought risk for ecosystem functioning and productivity across the Mediterranean Basin. In addition, declining tree growth sensitivity to spring temperature may emerge in response to increasing drought stress. Here, we evaluate these ideas by assessing the growth/climate sensitivity of 1500 tree-ring width (TRW) and 102 maximum density (MXD) measurement series from 711 and 74 Pinus uncinata trees, respectively, sampled at 28 high-elevation forest sites across the Pyrenees and two relict populations of the Iberian System. Different dendroclimatological standardization and split period approaches were used to assess the high- to low-frequency behavior of 20th century tree growth in response to temperature means, precipitation totals and drought indices. Long-term variations in TRW track summer temperatures until about 1970 but diverge afterwards, whereas MXD captures the recent temperature increase in the low-frequency domain fairly well. On the other hand summer drought has increasingly driven TRW along the 20th century. Our results suggest fading temperature sensitivity of Iberian high-elevation P. uncinata forest growth, and reveal the importance of summer drought that is becoming the emergent limiting factor of tree ring width formation in many parts of the Mediterranean Basin.

Linking meteorological drivers of spring-summer drought regimes to agricultural drought risk in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.

2017-12-01

As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and water management practices in China.

Comparative analysis of transcriptome in two wheat genotypes with contrasting levels of drought tolerance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Drought tolerance is a complex trait that is governed by multiple genes. To identify the potential candidate genes, comparative analysis of drought stress-responsive transcriptome between drought-tolerant (Triticum aestivum Cv. C306) and drought-sensitive (Triticum aestivum Cv. WL711) genotypes was ...

Joint pattern of seasonal hydrological droughts and floods alternation in China's Huai River Basin using the multivariate L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, ShaoFei; Zhang, Xiang; She, DunXian

2017-06-01

Under the current condition of climate change, droughts and floods occur more frequently, and events in which flooding occurs after a prolonged drought or a drought occurs after an extreme flood may have a more severe impact on natural systems and human lives. This challenges the traditional approach wherein droughts and floods are considered separately, which may largely underestimate the risk of the disasters. In our study, the sudden alternation of droughts and flood events (ADFEs) between adjacent seasons is studied using the multivariate L-moments theory and the bivariate copula functions in the Huai River Basin (HRB) of China with monthly streamflow data at 32 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2012. The dry and wet conditions are characterized by the standardized streamflow index (SSI) at a 3-month time scale. The results show that: (1) The summer streamflow makes the largest contribution to the annual streamflow, followed by the autumn streamflow and spring streamflow. (2) The entire study area can be divided into five homogeneous sub-regions using the multivariate regional homogeneity test. The generalized logistic distribution (GLO) and log-normal distribution (LN3) are acceptable to be the optimal marginal distributions under most conditions, and the Frank copula is more appropriate for spring-summer and summer-autumn SSI series. Continuous flood events dominate at most sites both in spring-summer and summer-autumn (with an average frequency of 13.78% and 17.06%, respectively), while continuous drought events come second (with an average frequency of 11.27% and 13.79%, respectively). Moreover, seasonal ADFEs most probably occurred near the mainstream of HRB, and drought and flood events are more likely to occur in summer-autumn than in spring-summer.

Hydrological drought in southeast Australia over the last five centuries: new insights from a multi-archive palaeoclimate streamflow reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, B.; Peel, M. C.; Nathan, R.; Karoly, D. J.

2017-12-01

South-eastern Australia experienced one of the most intense and prolonged droughts in the observed record over the period 1997-2009, widely termed the Millennium drought. Water managers are faced with major challenges in understanding this drought and preparing for future variability and change. In this study, we use a newly collated network of annual resolution palaeoclimate data, a novel reconstruction methodology and rigorous treatment of uncertainties to reconstruct water supply system inflows in a critical water supply catchment in southern Australia. Our new reconstruction allows us to investigate the intensity, frequency and duration of severe hydrological drought several centuries into the past, and to integrate knowledge from instrumental and palaeoclimate data.

Analysing the response of European ecosystems to droughts and heat waves within ISI-MIP2 simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Henrot, A. J.; Francois, L. M.; Munhoven, G.; Jacquemin, I.; Friend, A. D.; Rademacher, T. T.; Hacket Pain, A. J.; Hickler, T.

2015-12-01

With unprecedented speed and extent, the future climate change can be expected to severely impact terrestrial ecosystems due to more frequent extreme events, such as droughts or heat waves. What will be the impacts of these extreme events on ecosystem functioning and structure? How far will net primary production be reduced by such events? What will be the impact on plant mortality? Could such events trigger changes in the abundance of plant species, thus leading to biome shifts? In this contribution, we propose to use ISI-MIP2 model historical simulations from the biome sector to analyse the response of ecosystems to droughts or heat waves, trying to understand the differences between several vegetation models (e.g. CARAIB, HYBRID, LPJ). The analysis will focus on Europe. It will compare and assess the model responses for a series of well-marked drought or heat wave events in the simulated historical period, such as those that occurred in 1976, 2003 or 2010. This analysis will be performed in terms of several important environmental variables, like soil water and hydric stress, runoff, PFT abundance, net primary productivity and biomass, fire frequency, turnover of soil organic matter, etc. Whenever possible, the response of the model will be compared to available data for the most recent well-marked events. Examples of data to be used are eddy covariance, satellite data (including leaf area and fire occurrence) or tree rings.

Resistance of tropical seedlings to drought is mediated by neighbourhood diversity.

PubMed

O'Brien, Michael J; Reynolds, Glen; Ong, Robert; Hector, Andy

2017-11-01

Occasional periods of drought are typical of most tropical forests, but climate change is increasing drought frequency and intensity in many areas across the globe, threatening the structure and function of these ecosystems. The effects of intermittent drought on tropical tree communities remain poorly understood and the potential impacts of intensified drought under future climatic conditions are even less well known. The response of forests to altered precipitation will be determined by the tolerances of different species to reduced water availability and the interactions among plants that alleviate or exacerbate the effects of drought. Here, we report the response of experimental monocultures and mixtures of tropical trees to simulated drought, which reveals a fundamental shift in the nature of interactions among species. Weaker competition for water in diverse communities allowed seedlings to maintain growth under drought while more intense competition among conspecifics inhibited growth under the same conditions. These results show that reduced competition for water among species in mixtures mediates community resistance to drought. The delayed onset of competition for water among species in more diverse neighbourhoods during drought has potential implications for the coexistence of species in tropical forests and the resilience of these systems to climate change.

Effect of simulated monsoon failure on the carbon balance of mountain forests, Bhutan, eastern Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wangdi, Norbu; Ahmed, Iftekhar; Zangmo, Norbu; Gratzer, Georg; Jandl, Robert; Schindlbacher, Andreas

2017-04-01

Extreme climatic events leading to severe disturbances in ecosystems are expected to increase globally. Such events carry strong potentials for severe reductions or whole losses of ecosystem services. This is particularly true for the Himalayas: they are located in a region forming a tipping element in the Earth's climate system. At a millennial time scale, complete breakdowns of the summer monsoon circulation and a resulting failure of the Indian summer monsoon rains have occurred several times during the last 1000 years. Climate change potentially increases the frequency of such monsoon failures and related mega-droughts. Given the significance of the region, the knowledge on the effects of climate change on forest ecosystem C dynamics is strikingly limited. While the effects of droughts are studied experimentally in Europe and North America, no precipitation manipulation experiments have been carried out in the Himalayas yet. We make use of natural forests with coexisting conifer and broadleaf as well as deciduous and evergreen species at slopes of stark environmental gradients for conducting a replicated large-scale five year throughfall exclosure experiment. We study drought response at individual tree and ecosystem levels. We present the effects of the experimental drought on the ecosystem carbon balance, integrating above- and belowground pools and fluxes such as heterotrophic and autotrophic soil respiration, litter fall and root turnover as well as above- and belowground tree growth. A preliminary assessment indicates that soil microbes were primarily affected during the first three years of simulated drought, whereas trees altered allocation patterns but survived the experimental drought. A detailed analysis will be presented at the conference.

Variations in xylem embolism susceptibility under drought between intact saplings of three walnut species.

PubMed

Knipfer, Thorsten; Barrios-Masias, Felipe H; Cuneo, Italo F; Bouda, Martin; Albuquerque, Caetano P; Brodersen, Craig R; Kluepfel, Daniel A; McElrone, Andrew J

2018-05-30

A germplasm collection containing varied Juglans genotypes holds potential to improve drought resistance of plant materials for commercial production. We used X-ray computed microtomography to evaluate stem xylem embolism susceptibility/repair in relation to vessel anatomical features (size, arrangement, connectivity and pit characteristics) in 2-year-old saplings of three Juglans species. In vivo analysis revealed interspecific variations in embolism susceptibility among Juglans microcarpa, J. hindsii (both native to arid habitats) and J. ailantifolia (native to mesic habitats). Stem xylem of J. microcarpa was more resistant to drought-induced embolism as compared with J. hindsii and J. ailantifolia (differences in embolism susceptibility among older and current year xylem were not detected in any species). Variations in most vessel anatomical traits were negligible among the three species; however, we detected substantial interspecific differences in intervessel pit characteristics. As compared with J. hindsii and J. ailantifolia, low embolism susceptibility in J. microcarpa was associated with smaller pit size in larger diameter vessels, a smaller area of the shared vessel wall occupied by pits, lower pit frequency and no changes in pit characteristics as vessel diameters increased. Changes in amount of embolized vessels following 40 days of re-watering were minor in intact saplings of all three species highlighting that an embolism repair mechanism did not contribute to drought recovery. In conclusion, our data indicate that interspecific variations in drought-induced embolism susceptibility are associated with species-specific pit characteristics, and these traits may provide a future target for breeding efforts aimed at selecting walnut germplasm with improved drought resistance.

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

Treesearch

Nicholas J. Bouskill; Tana E. Wood; Richard Baran; Zhao Hao; Zaw Ye; Ben P. Bowen; Hsiao Chien Lim; Peter S. Nico; Hoi-Ying Holman; Benjamin Gilbert; Whendee L. Silver; Trent R. Northen; Eoin L. Brodie

2016-01-01

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however...

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions

Treesearch

Guillermo E. Ponce Campos; M. Susan Moran; Alfredo Huete; Yongguang Zhang; Cynthia Bresloff; Travis E. Huxman; Derek Eamus; David D. Bosch; Anthony R. Buda; Stacey A. Gunter; Tamara Heartsill Scalley; Stanley G. Kitchen; Mitchel P. McClaran; W. Henry McNab; Diane S. Montoya; Jack A. Morgan; Debra P. C. Peters; E. John Sadler; Mark S. Seyfried; Patrick J. Starks

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological model for many regions. Largescale, warm droughts have recently occurred in North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia and Australia, resulting in major effects on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon balance and food...

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nathan G.

2015-01-01

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

Variability of floods, droughts and windstorms over the past 500 years in Central Europe based on documentary and instrumental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brazdil, Rudolf

2016-04-01

Hydrological and meteorological extremes (HMEs) in Central Europe during the past 500 years can be reconstructed based on instrumental and documentary data. Documentary data about weather and related phenomena represent the basic source of information for historical climatology and hydrology, dealing with reconstruction of past climate and HMEs, their perception and impacts on human society. The paper presents the basic distribution of documentary data on (i) direct descriptions of HMEs and their proxies on the one hand and on (ii) individual and institutional data sources on the other. Several groups of documentary evidence such as narrative written records (annals, chronicles, memoirs), visual daily weather records, official and personal correspondence, special prints, financial and economic records (with particular attention to taxation data), newspapers, pictorial documentation, chronograms, epigraphic data, early instrumental observations, early scientific papers and communications are demonstrated with respect to extraction of information about HMEs, which concerns usually of their occurrence, severity, seasonality, meteorological causes, perception and human impacts. The paper further presents the analysis of 500-year variability of floods, droughts and windstorms on the base of series, created by combination of documentary and instrumental data. Results, advantages and drawbacks of such approach are documented on the examples from the Czech Lands. The analysis of floods concentrates on the River Vltava (Prague) and the River Elbe (Děčín) which show the highest frequency of floods occurring in the 19th century (mainly of winter synoptic type) and in the second half of the 16th century (summer synoptic type). Reported are also the most disastrous floods (August 1501, March and August 1598, February 1655, June 1675, February 1784, March 1845, February 1862, September 1890, August 2002) and the European context of floods in the severe winter 1783/84. Drought fluctuations in the Czech Lands are represented by the chronology of drought frequency on the one hand and by the reconstructed series of drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-Index and PDSI) on the other. Wind extremes are documented on the example of Czech windstorm chronology derived from documentary data (including tornadoes) with an example of "windstorm of the 18th century" (20-21 December 1740). Finally, scientific potential and perspectives of historical-climatological (historical-hydrological) research of HMEs are presented.

Nitrate transport and supply limitations quantified using high-frequency stream monitoring and turning point analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Christopher S.; Wang, Bo; Schilling, Keith E.; Chan, Kung-sik

2017-06-01

Agricultural landscapes often leak inorganic nitrogen to the stream network, usually in the form of nitrate-nitrite (NOx-N), degrading downstream water quality on both the local and regional scales. While the spatial distribution of nitrate sources has been delineated in many watersheds, less is known about the complicated temporal dynamics that drive stream NOx-N because traditional methods of stream grab sampling are often conducted at a low frequency. Deployment of accurate real-time, continuous measurement devices that have been developed in recent years enables high-frequency sampling that provides detailed information on the concentration-discharge relation and the timing of NOx-N delivery to streams. We aggregated 15-min interval NOx-N and discharge data over a nine-year period into daily averages and then used robust statistical methods to identify how the discharge regime within an artificially-drained agricultural watershed reflected catchment hydrology and NOx-N delivery pathways. We then quantified how transport and supply limitations varied from year-to-year and how dependence of these limitations varied with climate, especially drought. Our results show NOx-N concentrations increased linearly with discharge up to an average "turning point" of 1.42 mm of area-normalized discharge, after which concentrations decline with increasing discharge. We estimate transport and supply limitations to govern 57 and 43 percent, respectively, of the NOx-N flux over the nine-year period. Drought effects on the NOx-N flux linger for multiple years and this is reflected in a greater tendency toward supply limitations in the three years following drought. How the turning point varies with climate may aid in prediction of NOx-N loading in future climate regimes.

An ecohydrological model to quantify the risk of drought-induced forest mortality events across climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Regional scale drought-induced forest mortality events are projected to become more frequent under future climates due to changes in rainfall patterns. However, the ability to predict the conditions under which such events occur is currently lacking. To quantify and understand the underlying causes of drought-induced forest mortality, we propose a stochastic ecohydrological model that explicitly couples tree water and carbon use strategies with climate characteristics, such as the frequency and severity of drought. Using the model and results from a controlled drought experiment, we identify the soil, vegetation, and climate factors that underlie tree water and carbon deficits and, ultimately, the risk of drought-induced forest mortality. This mortality risk is then compared across the spectrum of anisohydric-isohydric stomatal control strategies and a range of rainfall regimes. These results suggest certain soil-plant combinations may maximize the survivable drought length in a given climate. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be expanded to estimate the effect of anticipated climate change on drought-induced forest mortality and associated consequences for forest water and carbon balances.

Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy.

PubMed

Saatchi, Sassan; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Anderson, Liana O; Myneni, Ranga B; Nemani, Ramakrishna

2013-01-08

Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Satellite and in situ observations have shown an increase in fire occurrence during drought years and tree mortality following severe droughts, but to date there has been no assessment of long-term impacts of these droughts across landscapes in Amazonia. Here, we use satellite microwave observations of rainfall and canopy backscatter to show that more than 70 million hectares of forest in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy structure and moisture. Remarkably, and despite the gradual recovery in total rainfall in subsequent years, the decrease in canopy backscatter persisted until the next major drought, in 2010. The decline in backscatter is attributed to changes in structure and water content associated with the forest upper canopy. The persistence of low backscatter supports the slow recovery (>4 y) of forest canopy structure after the severe drought in 2005. The result suggests that the occurrence of droughts in Amazonia at 5-10 y frequency may lead to persistent alteration of the forest canopy.

Rapid adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Hancock, Angela M

2016-08-01

In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial and temporal trends of drought effects in a heterogeneous semi-arid forest ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

2016-01-01

Drought has long been recognized as a driving mechanism in the forests of western North America and drought-induced mortality has been documented across genera in recent years. Given the frequency of these events are expected to increase in the future, understanding patterns of mortality and plant response to severe drought is important to resource managers. Drought can affect the functional, physiological, structural, and demographic properties of forest ecosystems. Remote sensing studies have documented changes in forest properties due to direct and indirect effects of drought; however, few studies have addressed this at local scales needed to characterize highly heterogeneous ecosystems in the forest-shrubland ecotone. We analyzed a 22-year Landsat time series (1985–2012) to determine changes in forest in an area that experienced a relatively dry decade punctuated by two years of extreme drought. We assessed the relationship between several vegetation indices and field measured characteristics (e.g. plant area index and canopy gap fraction) and applied these indices to trend analysis to uncover the location, direction and timing of change. Finally, we assessed the interaction of climate and topography by forest functional type. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), a measure of canopy water content, had the strongest correlation with short-term field measures of plant area index (R2 = 0.64) and canopy gap fraction (R2 = 0.65). Over the entire time period, 25% of the forested area experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) negative trend in NDMI, compared to less than 10% in a positive trend. Coniferous forests were more likely to be associated with a negative NDMI trend than deciduous forest. Forests on southern aspects were least likely to exhibit a negative trend while north aspects were most prevalent. Field plots with a negative trend had a lower live density, and higher amounts of standing dead and down trees compared to plots with no trend. Our analysis identifies spatially explicit patterns of long-term trends anchored with ground based evidence to highlight areas of forest that are resistant, persistent or vulnerable to severe drought. The results provide a long-term perspective for the resource management of this area and can be applied to similar ecosystems throughout western North America.

Inter-comparison of weather and circulation type classifications for hydrological drought development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleig, Anne K.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hisdal, Hege; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannah, David M.

Classifications of weather and circulation patterns are often applied in research seeking to relate atmospheric state to surface environmental phenomena. However, numerous procedures have been applied to define the patterns, thus limiting comparability between studies. The COST733 Action “ Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions” tests 73 different weather type classifications (WTC) and their associate weather types (WTs) and compares the WTCs’ utility for various applications. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of these WTCs for analysis of regional hydrological drought development in north-western Europe. Hydrological drought is defined in terms of a Regional Drought Area Index (RDAI), which is based on deficits derived from daily river flow series. RDAI series (1964-2001) were calculated for four homogeneous regions in Great Britain and two in Denmark. For each region, WTs associated with hydrological drought development were identified based on antecedent and concurrent WT-frequencies for major drought events. The utility of the different WTCs for the study of hydrological drought development was evaluated, and the influence of WTC attributes, i.e. input variables, number of defined WTs and general classification concept, on WTC performance was assessed. The objective Grosswetterlagen (OGWL), the objective Second-Generation Lamb Weather Type Classification (LWT2) with 18 WTs and two implementations of the objective Wetterlagenklassifikation (WLK; with 40 and 28 WTs) outperformed all other WTCs. In general, WTCs with more WTs (⩾27) were found to perform better than WTCs with less (⩽18) WTs. The influence of input variables was not consistent across the different classification procedures, and the performance of a WTC was determined primarily by the classification procedure itself. Overall, classification procedures following the relatively simple general classification concept of predefining WTs based on thresholds, performed better than those based on more sophisticated classification concepts such as deriving WTs by cluster analysis or artificial neural networks. In particular, PCA based WTCs with 9 WTs and automated WTCs with a high number of predefined WTs (subjectively and threshold based) performed well. It is suggested that the explicit consideration of the air flow characteristics of meridionality, zonality and cyclonicity in the definition of WTs is a useful feature for a WTC when analysing regional hydrological drought development.

Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-19

area, determined by the North Carolina Division of Coastal Management from 1938 to 1992, and LIDAR data suggests that there is not a strong...spectrometry KBDI Keetch-Byram drought index LCAC landing craft air cushion LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging LTSC Long-Term Shoreline Change LVORI low...that the frequency distribution of marsh elevations relative to mean sea level, determined by analysis of Light Detection and Ranging ( LIDAR ) data, is

The Impact of Precipitation Regimes on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Niu, Shukui; Tong, Xiaojuan; Zhao, Jinlong; Sun, Yu; He, Tengfei

2014-01-01

The amount, frequency, and duration of precipitation have important impact on the occurrence and severity of forest fires. To fully understand the effects of precipitation regimes on forest fires, a drought index was developed with number of consecutive dry days (daily precipitation less than 2 mm) and total precipitation, and the relationships of drought and precipitation with fire activities were investigated over two periods (i.e., 1982–1988 and 1989–2008) in five ecoregions of Yunnan Province. The results showed that precipitation regime had a significant relationship with fire activities during the two periods. However, the influence of the drought on fire activities varied by ecoregions, with more impacts in drier ecoregions IV-V and less impacts in the more humid ecoregions I–III. The drought was more closely related to fire activities than precipitation during the two study periods, especially in the drier ecoregions, indicating that the frequency and the duration of precipitation had significant influences on forest fires in the drier areas. Drought appears to offer a better explanation than total precipitation on temporal changes in fire regimes across the five ecoregions in Yunnan. Our findings have significant implications for forecasting the local fire dangers under the future climate change. PMID:25243208

Soil Carbon Pools in Dryland Agroecosystems as Impacted By Several Years of Drought

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

No-till and increased cropping intensity (CI) can increase yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) in the US Great Plains compared with traditional wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) – fallow management. However, gains in SOC, and other C pools, may not be permanent. Increasing frequency of drought may redu...

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions

Treesearch

G. E. Ponce Campos; M. S. Moran; A. Huete; Y. Zhang; C. Bresloff; T.E. Huxman; D. Eamus; D. D. Bosch; A. R. Buda; S. A. Gunter; T. Heartsill Scalley; S. G. Kitchen; M. P. McClaran; W. H. McNab; D. S. Montoya; J. A. Morgan; D. P. C. Peters; E. J. Sadler; M. S. Seyfried; P. J. Starks

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological model for many regions1. Largescale, warm droughts have recently occurred in North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia and Australia, resulting in major effects on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon balance and food...

Drought during canopy development has lasting effect on annual carbon balance in a deciduous temperate forest

Treesearch

Asko Noormets; Steve G. McNulty; Jared L. DeForest; Ge Sun; Qinglin Li; Jiquan Chen

2008-01-01

Climate change projections predict an intensifying hydrologic cycle and an increasing frequency of droughts, yet quantitative understanding of the effects on ecosystem carbon exchange remains limitedHere, the effect of contrasting precipitation and soil moisture dynamics were evaluated on forest carbon exchange using 2 yr of...

Rapid increases and time-lagged declines in amphibian occupancy after wildfire

Treesearch

Blake R. Hossack; Winsor H. Lowe; Paul Stephen Corn

2012-01-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of...

Drought delays development of the sorghum root microbiome and enriches for monoderm bacteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Ling; Naylor, Dan; Dong, Zhaobin

Here, drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity, and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through 16S rRNA amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome andmore » causes increased abundance and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter genes are correlated with these shifts in community composition. Finally, inoculation experiments with monoderm isolates indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can positively impact plant growth. Collectively, these results demonstrate the role that drought plays in restructuring the root microbiome and highlight the importance of temporal sampling when studying plant-associated microbiomes.« less

Drought delays development of the sorghum root microbiome and enriches for monoderm bacteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Ling; Naylor, Dan; Dong, Zhaobin

Drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through16S amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome and causes increased abundancemore » and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ABC (ATP-binding cassette)-transporter genes may mediate these shifts in community composition. Finally, experiments with fluorescently tagged monoderms indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can positively impact plant growth. Collectively, these results demonstrate the role drought plays in restructuring the root microbiome and highlight the importance of temporal sampling when studying plant-associated microbiomes.« less

Drought delays development of the sorghum root microbiome and enriches for monoderm bacteria.

PubMed

Xu, Ling; Naylor, Dan; Dong, Zhaobin; Simmons, Tuesday; Pierroz, Grady; Hixson, Kim K; Kim, Young-Mo; Zink, Erika M; Engbrecht, Kristin M; Wang, Yi; Gao, Cheng; DeGraaf, Stephanie; Madera, Mary A; Sievert, Julie A; Hollingsworth, Joy; Birdseye, Devon; Scheller, Henrik V; Hutmacher, Robert; Dahlberg, Jeffery; Jansson, Christer; Taylor, John W; Lemaux, Peggy G; Coleman-Derr, Devin

2018-05-01

Drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity, and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through 16S rRNA amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome and causes increased abundance and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter genes are correlated with these shifts in community composition. Finally, inoculation experiments with monoderm isolates indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can positively impact plant growth. Collectively, these results demonstrate the role that drought plays in restructuring the root microbiome and highlight the importance of temporal sampling when studying plant-associated microbiomes. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Drought delays development of the sorghum root microbiome and enriches for monoderm bacteria

DOE PAGES

Xu, Ling; Naylor, Dan; Dong, Zhaobin; ...

2018-04-16

Here, drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity, and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through 16S rRNA amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome andmore » causes increased abundance and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter genes are correlated with these shifts in community composition. Finally, inoculation experiments with monoderm isolates indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can positively impact plant growth. Collectively, these results demonstrate the role that drought plays in restructuring the root microbiome and highlight the importance of temporal sampling when studying plant-associated microbiomes.« less

Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Clark, Julian; Rangecroft, Sally; Wanders, Niko; Gleeson, Tom; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hannaford, Jamie; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Hannah, David M.; Sheffield, Justin; Svoboda, Mark; Verbeiren, Boud; Wagener, Thorsten; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.

2016-09-01

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include

• (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what are considered normal or reference conditions) over time?

Assessing the impacts of droughts on net primary productivity in China.

PubMed

Pei, Fengsong; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping; Lao, Chunhua

2013-01-15

Frequency and severity of droughts were projected to increase in many regions. However, their effects of temporal dynamics on the terrestrial carbon cycle remain uncertain, and hence deserve further investigation. In this paper, the droughts that occurred in China during 2001-2010 were identified by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Standardized anomaly index (SAI), which has been widely employed in reflecting precipitation, was extended to evaluate the anomalies of net primary productivity (NPP). In addition, influences of the droughts on vegetation were explored by examining the temporal dynamics of SAI-NPP along with area-weighted drought intensity at different time scales (1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months). Year-to-year variability of NPP with several factors, including droughts, NDVI, radiation and temperature, was analyzed as well. Consequently, the droughts in the years 2001, 2006 and 2009 were well reconstructed. This indicates that SPI could be applied to the monitoring of the droughts in China during the past decade (2001-2010) effectively. Moreover, strongest correlations between droughts and NPP anomalies were found during or after the drought intensities reached their peak values. In addition, some droughts substantially reduced the countrywide NPP, whereas the others did not. These phenomena can be explained by the regional diversities of drought intensity, drought duration, areal extents of the droughts, as well as the cumulative and lag responses of vegetation to the precipitation deficits. Besides the drought conditions, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), radiation and temperature also contribute to the interannual variability of NPP. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems.

PubMed

Hoover, David L; Duniway, Michael C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-12-01

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3 shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoover, David L.; Duniway, Michael C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

Seasonal drought effects on the water quality of the Biobío River, Central Chile.

PubMed

Yevenes, Mariela A; Figueroa, Ricardo; Parra, Oscar

2018-05-01

Quantifying the effect of droughts on ecosystem functions is essential to the development of coastal zone and river management under a changing climate. It is widely acknowledged that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts, which can affect important ecosystem services, such as the regional supply of clean water. Very little is understood about how droughts affect the water quality of Chilean high flow rivers. This paper intends to investigate the effect of an, recently identified, unprecedented drought in Chile (2010-2015), on the Biobío River water quality, (36°45'-38°49' S and 71°00'-73°20' W), Central Chile. This river is one of the largest Chilean rivers and it provides abundant freshwater. Water quality (water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, biological oxygen demand, total suspended solids, chloride, sodium, nutrients, and trace metals), during the drought (2010-2015), was compared with a pre-drought period (2000-2009) over two reaches (upstream and downstream) of the river. Multivariate analysis and seasonal Mann-Kendall trend analyses and a Theil-Sen estimator were employed to analyze trends and slopes of the reaches. Results indicated a significant decreased trend in total suspended solids and a slightly increasing trend in water temperature and EC, major ions, and trace metals (chrome, lead, iron, and cobalt), mainly in summer and autumn during the drought. The reduced variability upstream suggested that nutrient and metal concentrations were more constant than downstream. The results evidenced, due to the close relationship between river discharge and water quality, a slightly decline of the water quality downstream of the Biobío River during drought period, which could be attenuated in a post-drought period. These results displayed that water quality is vulnerable to reductions in flow, through historical and emerging solutes/contaminants and induced pH mobilization. Consequently, seasonal changes and a progressive reduction of river flow affect the ecosystem functionality in this key Chilean river. The outcomes from this research can be used to improve how low flow conditions and the effects of a reduction in the river volume and discharge are assessed, which is the case under the scenario of more frequent drought periods.

Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardhanan, A.

2017-12-01

Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes.

PubMed

Gazol, Antonio; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Gutiérrez, Emilia; de Luis, Martin; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Novak, Klemen; Rozas, Vicente; Tíscar, Pedro A; Linares, Juan C; Martín-Hernández, Natalia; Martínez Del Castillo, Edurne; Ribas, Montse; García-González, Ignacio; Silla, Fernando; Camisón, Alvaro; Génova, Mar; Olano, José M; Longares, Luis A; Hevia, Andrea; Tomás-Burguera, Miquel; Galván, J Diego

2018-05-01

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Legacy effects of drought on plant-soil feedbacks and plant-plant interactions.

PubMed

Kaisermann, Aurore; de Vries, Franciska T; Griffiths, Robert I; Bardgett, Richard D

2017-09-01

Interactions between aboveground and belowground biota have the potential to modify ecosystem responses to climate change, yet little is known about how drought influences plant-soil feedbacks with respect to microbial mediation of plant community dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that drought modifies plant-soil feedback with consequences for plant competition. We measured net pairwise plant-soil feedbacks for two grassland plant species grown in monoculture and competition in soils that had or had not been subjected to a previous drought; these were then exposed to a subsequent drought. To investigate the mechanisms involved, we assessed treatment responses of soil microbial communities and nutrient availability. We found that previous drought had a legacy effect on bacterial and fungal community composition that decreased plant growth in conspecific soils and had knock-on effects for plant competitive interactions. Moreover, plant and microbial responses to subsequent drought were dependent on a legacy effect of the previous drought on plant-soil interactions. We show that drought has lasting effects on belowground communities with consequences for plant-soil feedbacks and plant-plant interactions. This suggests that drought, which is predicted to increase in frequency with climate change, may change soil functioning and plant community composition via the modification of plant-soil feedbacks. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Simultaneous abrupt shifts in hydrology and fish assemblage structure in a floodplain lake in the central Amazon

PubMed Central

Röpke, Cristhiana P.; Amadio, Sidinéia; Zuanon, Jansen; Ferreira, Efrem J. G.; Deus, Cláudia Pereira de; Pires, Tiago H. S.; Winemiller, Kirk O.

2017-01-01

Combined effects of climate change and deforestation have altered precipitation patterns in the Amazon. This has led to changes in the frequency of extreme events of flood and drought in recent decades and in the magnitude of the annual flood pulse, a phenomenon that influences virtually all aspects of river-floodplain ecosystem dynamics. Analysis of long-term data revealed abrupt and synchronous changes in hydrology and fish assemblage structure of a floodplain lake near the confluence of Amazon and Negro rivers. After an intense drought in 2005, the assemblage assumed a different and fairly persistent taxonomic composition and functional structure. Declines in abundance after 2005 were more pronounced for species of all sizes having equilibrium life history strategy, large species with periodic life history strategy, and for all trophic levels except primary consumers. Our results suggest that the extreme drought triggered changes in the fish assemblage and subsequent anomalous hydrological conditions have hampered assemblage recovery. These findings stress the need to account for climatic-driven hydrological changes in conservation efforts addressing aquatic biodiversity and fishery resources in the central Amazon. PMID:28071701

Simultaneous abrupt shifts in hydrology and fish assemblage structure in a floodplain lake in the central Amazon.

PubMed

Röpke, Cristhiana P; Amadio, Sidinéia; Zuanon, Jansen; Ferreira, Efrem J G; Deus, Cláudia Pereira de; Pires, Tiago H S; Winemiller, Kirk O

2017-01-10

Combined effects of climate change and deforestation have altered precipitation patterns in the Amazon. This has led to changes in the frequency of extreme events of flood and drought in recent decades and in the magnitude of the annual flood pulse, a phenomenon that influences virtually all aspects of river-floodplain ecosystem dynamics. Analysis of long-term data revealed abrupt and synchronous changes in hydrology and fish assemblage structure of a floodplain lake near the confluence of Amazon and Negro rivers. After an intense drought in 2005, the assemblage assumed a different and fairly persistent taxonomic composition and functional structure. Declines in abundance after 2005 were more pronounced for species of all sizes having equilibrium life history strategy, large species with periodic life history strategy, and for all trophic levels except primary consumers. Our results suggest that the extreme drought triggered changes in the fish assemblage and subsequent anomalous hydrological conditions have hampered assemblage recovery. These findings stress the need to account for climatic-driven hydrological changes in conservation efforts addressing aquatic biodiversity and fishery resources in the central Amazon.

Diet composition, quality and overlap of sympatric American pronghorn and gemsbok

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cain, James W.; Avery, Mindi M.; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Abbott, Laurie B.; Holechek, Jerry L.

2017-01-01

Species with a long evolutionary history of sympatry often have mechanisms for resource partitioning that reduce competition. However, introduced non-native ungulates often compete with native ungulates and competitive effects can be exacerbated in arid regions due to low primary productivity. Our objectives were to characterize diet composition, quality, and overlap between American pronghorn Antilocapra americana and introduced non-native gemsbok Oryx gazella in southcentral New Mexico, USA. Severe drought occurred between 2010 and 2011, which allowed us to evaluate drought impacts on diet composition, quality, and overlap. Using feces collected from each species, we assessed diet composition and overlap with microhistological analysis and diet quality using fecal nitrogen (FN) and fecal 2,6-diaminopimelic acid (FDAPA). Pronghorn diet was primarily composed of shrubs in the cool—dry season (64.5%) then shifted to forbs in the warm—dry (64.7%) and warm—wet (54.1%) seasons. Pronghorn diet also shifted to shrubs during drought (50.7%). Gemsbok diets were evenly distributed across forage types. Fifty-three percent of the species of plants consumed by pronghorn and gemsbok were shared; diet overlap averaged 0.44 ± 0.06 (SE) and 0.49 ± 0.06 during the warm—dry seasons of 2010 and 2011, respectively. During drought, key forage species shared between pronghorn and gemsbok included yucca Yucca spp., prickly pear Opuntia spp., globemallow Sphaeralcea coccinea and horsenettle Solanum elaeagnifolium, comprising 50% of the pronghorn and 40% of the gemsbok diets. Fecal nitrogen and FDAPA decreased in pronghorn by 26% and 27% between the warm—dry season of 2010 (non-drought) and the warm—dry season of 2011 (drought), respectively. Drought had little effect on dietary quality for gemsbok. Gemsbok can use forage with lower nutritional content giving them an advantage over pronghorn, particularly during drought periods. Pronghorn are more dependent upon precipitation, which may be important to consider in light of increasing drought frequency associated with climate change.

Exploring the link between meteorological drought and streamflow to inform water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lennard, Amy; Macdonald, Neil; Hooke, Janet

2015-04-01

Drought indicators are an under-used metric in UK drought management. Standardised drought indicators offer a potential monitoring and management tool for operational water resource management. However, the use of these metrics needs further investigation. This work uses statistical analysis of the climatological drought signal based on meteorological drought indicators and observed streamflow data to explore the link between meteorological drought and hydrological drought to inform water resource management for a single water resource region. The region, covering 21,000 km2 of the English Midlands and central Wales, includes a variety of landscapes and climatological conditions. Analysis of the links between meteorological drought and hydrological drought performed using streamflow data from 'natural' catchments indicates a close positive relationship between meteorological drought indicators and streamflow, enhancing confidence in the application of drought indicators for monitoring and management. However, many of the catchments in the region are subject to modification through impoundments, abstractions and discharge. Therefore, it is beneficial to explore how climatological drought signal propagates into managed hydrological systems. Using a longitudinal study of catchments and sub-catchments that include natural and modified river reaches the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought is explored. Initial statistical analysis of meteorological drought indicators and streamflow data from modified catchments shows a significantly weakened statistical relationship and reveals how anthropogenic activities may alter hydrological drought characteristics in modified catchments. Exploring how meteorological drought indicators link to streamflow across the water supply region helps build an understanding of their utility for operational water resource management.

Differential metabolome analysis of field-grown maize kernels in response to drought stress

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Drought stress constrains maize kernel development and can exacerbate aflatoxin contamination. In order to identify drought responsive metabolites and explore pathways involved in kernel responses, a metabolomics analysis was conducted on kernels from a drought tolerant line, Lo964, and a sensitive ...

Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: quantifying the welfare effects of water shortage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens

2016-04-01

It is widely acknowledged that drought management should move from a crisis to a risk-based approach. A risk-based approach to managing water resources requires a sound drought risk analysis, quantifying the probability and impacts of water shortage due to droughts. Impacts of droughts are for example crop yield losses, hydropower production losses, and water shortage for municipal and industrial use. Many studies analyse the balance between supply and demand, but there is little experience in translating this into economic metrics that can be used in a decision-making process on investments to reduce drought risk. We will present a drought risk analysis method for the Netherlands, with a focus on the underlying economic method to quantify the welfare effects of water shortage for different water users. Both the risk-based approach as well as the economic valuation of water shortage for various water users was explored in a study for the Dutch Government. First, an historic analysis of the effects of droughts on revenues and prices in agriculture as well as on shipping and nature was carried out. Second, a drought risk analysis method was developed that combines drought hazard and drought impact analysis in a probabilistic way for various sectors. This consists of a stepwise approach, from water availability through water shortage to economic impact, for a range of drought events with a certain return period. Finally, a local case study was conducted to test the applicability of the drought risk analysis method. Through the study, experience was gained into integrating hydrological and economic analyses, which is a prerequisite for drought risk analysis. Results indicate that the risk analysis method is promising and applicable for various sectors. However, it was also found that quantification of economic impacts from droughts is time-consuming, because location- and sector-specific data is needed, which is not always readily available. Furthermore, for some sectors hydrological data was lacking to make a reliable estimate of drought return periods. By 2021, the Netherlands Government aims to agree on the water supply service levels, which should describe water availability and quality that can be delivered with a certain return period. The Netherlands' Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, representatives of the regional water boards and Rijkswaterstaat (operating the main water system) as well as several consultants and research institutes are important stakeholders for further development of the method, evaluation of cases and the development of a quantitative risk-informed decision-making tool.

Drought-induced changes in flow regimes lead to long-term losses in mussel-provided ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Vaughn, Caryn C; Atkinson, Carla L; Julian, Jason P

2015-01-01

Extreme hydro-meteorological events such as droughts are becoming more frequent, intense, and persistent. This is particularly true in the south central USA, where rapidly growing urban areas are running out of water and human-engineered water storage and management are leading to broad-scale changes in flow regimes. The Kiamichi River in southeastern Oklahoma, USA, has high fish and freshwater mussel biodiversity. However, water from this rural river is desired by multiple urban areas and other entities. Freshwater mussels are large, long-lived filter feeders that provide important ecosystem services. We ask how observed changes in mussel biomass and community composition resulting from drought-induced changes in flow regimes might lead to changes in river ecosystem services. We sampled mussel communities in this river over a 20-year period that included two severe droughts. We then used laboratory-derived physiological rates and river-wide estimates of species-specific mussel biomass to estimate three aggregate ecosystem services provided by mussels over this time period: biofiltration, nutrient recycling (nitrogen and phosphorus), and nutrient storage (nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon). Mussel populations declined over 60%, and declines were directly linked to drought-induced changes in flow regimes. All ecosystem services declined over time and mirrored biomass losses. Mussel declines were exacerbated by human water management, which has increased the magnitude and frequency of hydrologic drought in downstream reaches of the river. Freshwater mussels are globally imperiled and declining around the world. Summed across multiple streams and rivers, mussel losses similar to those we document here could have considerable consequences for downstream water quality although lost biofiltration and nutrient retention. While we cannot control the frequency and severity of climatological droughts, water releases from reservoirs could be used to augment stream flows and prevent compounded anthropogenic stressors. PMID:25859334

Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Pilliod, David S.; Corn, P. Stephen; , KRISTINE W. WILSON; , EVELYN L. BULL; , KRISTIN LOHR; , DEBRA PATLA; , JASON JONES

2013-01-01

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change.

Use of Drought Index and Crop Modelling for Drought Impacts Analysis on Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield Loss in Bandung District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniasih, E.; Impron; Perdinan

2017-03-01

Drought impacts on crop yield loss depend on drought magnitude and duration and on plant genotype at every plant growth stages when droughts occur. This research aims to assess the difference calculation results of 2 drought index methods and to study the maize yield loss variability impacted by drought magnitude and duration during maize growth stages in Bandung district, province of West Java, Indonesia. Droughts were quantified by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1- to 3-month lags for the January1986-December 2015 period data. Maize yield responses to droughts were simulated by AquaCrop for the January 1986-May 2016 period of growing season. The analysis showed that the SPI and SPEI methods provided similar results in quantifying drought event. Droughts during maize reproductive stages caused the highest maize yield loss.

Characterizing drought in terms of changes in the precipitation-runoff relationship: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuan; Feng, Xiaoming; Wang, Xiaofeng; Fu, Bojie

2018-03-01

The frequency and intensity of drought are increasing dramatically with global warming. However, few studies have characterized drought in terms of its impacts on ecosystem services, the mechanisms through which ecosystems support life. As a result, little is known about the implications of increased drought for resource management. This case study characterizes drought by linking climate anomalies with changes in the precipitation-runoff relationship (PRR) on the Loess Plateau of China, a water-limited region where ongoing revegetation makes drought a major concern. We analyzed drought events with drought durations ≥ 5 years and mean annual precipitation anomaly (PA) values ≤ -5 % during drought periods. The results show that continuous precipitation shifts are able to change the water balance of watersheds in water-limited areas, and multi-year drought events cause the PRR to change with a significantly decreasing trend (p < 0.05) compared to other historical records. For the Loess Plateau as a whole, the average runoff ratio decreased from 10 to 6.8 % during 1991-1999. The joint probability and return period gradually increase with increasing of drought duration and severity. The ecosystem service of water yield is easily affected by drought events with durations equal to or greater than 6 years and drought severity values equal to or greater than 0.55 (precipitation ≤ 212 mm). At the same time, multi-year drought events also lead to significant changes in the leaf area index (LAI). Such studies are essential for ecosystem management in water-limited areas.

Evaluation of drought using SPEI drought class transitions and log-linear models for different agro-ecological regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, N. M.; Sharma, G. C.; Moreira, Elsa; Jana, C.; Mishra, P. K.; Sharma, N. K.; Mandal, D.

2017-08-01

Markov chain and 3-dimensional log-linear models were attempted to model drought class transitions derived from the newly developed drought index the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a 12 month time scale for six major drought prone areas of India. Log-linear modelling approach has been used to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions using SPEI-12 time series derived form 48 yeas monthly rainfall and temperature data. In this study, the probabilities of drought class transition, the mean residence time, the 1, 2 or 3 months ahead prediction of average transition time between drought classes and the drought severity class have been derived. Seasonality of precipitation has been derived for non-homogeneous Markov chains which could be used to explain the effect of the potential retreat of drought. Quasi-association and Quasi-symmetry log-linear models have been fitted to the drought class transitions derived from SPEI-12 time series. The estimates of odds along with their confidence intervals were obtained to explain the progression of drought and estimation of drought class transition probabilities. For initial months as the drought severity increases the calculated odds shows lower value and the odds decreases for the succeeding months. This indicates that the ratio of expected frequencies of occurrence of transition from drought class to the non-drought class decreases as compared to transition to any drought class when the drought severity of the present class increases. From 3-dimensional log-linear model it is clear that during the last 24 years the drought probability has increased for almost all the six regions. The findings from the present study will immensely help to assess the impact of drought on the gross primary production and to develop future contingent planning in similar regions worldwide.

Drought disaster vulnerability mapping of agricultural sector in Bringin District, Semarang Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestari, D. R.; Pigawati, B.

2018-02-01

Agriculture sector is a sector that is directly affected by drought. The phenomenon of drought disaster on agriculture sector has occurred in Semarang regency. One of districts in Semarang which is affected by drought is Bringin district. Bringin district is a productive agricultural area. However, the district experienced the most severe drought in 2015. The question research of this study is, “How is the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability on agriculture sector in Bringin district, Semarang regency?” The purpose of this study is to determine the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability on agriculture sector to village units in Bringin district. This study investigated drought vulnerability based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by analyzing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity through mapping process. This study used quantitative approach. There were formulation analysis, scoring analysis, and overlay analysis. Drought vulnerability on agriculture sector in Bringin district was divided into three categories: low, medium, and high.

Assessing floods and droughts in the Mékrou River basin (West Africa): a combined household survey and climatic trends analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markantonis, Vasileios; Farinosi, Fabio; Dondeynaz, Celine; Ameztoy, Iban; Pastori, Marco; Marletta, Luca; Ali, Abdou; Carmona Moreno, Cesar

2018-05-01

The assessment of natural hazards such as floods and droughts is a complex issue that demands integrated approaches and high-quality data. Especially in African developing countries, where information is limited, the assessment of floods and droughts, though an overarching issue that influences economic and social development, is even more challenging. This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing crucial aspects of floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin (a portion of the Niger River basin in West Africa), combining climatic trends analysis and the findings of a household survey. The multivariable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with an analysis of household survey data that reveals the behaviour and opinions of local residents regarding the observed climate variability and occurrence of flood and drought events, household mitigation measures, and the impacts of floods and droughts. Based on survey data analysis, the paper provides a per-household cost estimation of floods and droughts that occurred over a 2-year period (2014-2015). Furthermore, two econometric models are set up to identify the factors that influence the costs of floods and droughts to impacted households.

Cattle grazing in semiarid forestlands: Habitat selection during periods of drought

Treesearch

C. L. Roever; T. DelCurto; M. Rowland; M. Vavra; M. Wisdom

2015-01-01

Climate change models are predicting increased frequency and severity of droughts in arid and semiarid environments, and these areas are responsible for much of the world’s livestock production. Because cattle (Bos Taurus) grazing can impact the abundance, distribution, and ecological function of native plant and animal communities, it is important...

Forest insect and fungal pathogen responses to drought [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Thomas E. Kolb; Christopher J. Fettig; Barbara J. Bentz; Jane E. Stewart; Aaron S. Weed; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Matthew P. Ayres

2016-01-01

Recent changes in precipitation patterns and in the occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events have been documented in many forested regions of the United States (Ryan and Vose 2012). Changes in drought intensity and frequency have the potential to alter populations and impacts of tree-damaging forest insects and pathogens (Ayers and Lombardero...

Analysis of the Citrullus colocynthis Transcriptome during Water Deficit Stress

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhuoyu; Hu, Hongtao; Goertzen, Leslie R.; McElroy, J. Scott; Dane, Fenny

2014-01-01

Citrullus colocynthis is a very drought tolerant species, closely related to watermelon (C. lanatus var. lanatus), an economically important cucurbit crop. Drought is a threat to plant growth and development, and the discovery of drought inducible genes with various functions is of great importance. We used high throughput mRNA Illumina sequencing technology and bioinformatic strategies to analyze the C. colocynthis leaf transcriptome under drought treatment. Leaf samples at four different time points (0, 24, 36, or 48 hours of withholding water) were used for RNA extraction and Illumina sequencing. qRT-PCR of several drought responsive genes was performed to confirm the accuracy of RNA sequencing. Leaf transcriptome analysis provided the first glimpse of the drought responsive transcriptome of this unique cucurbit species. A total of 5038 full-length cDNAs were detected, with 2545 genes showing significant changes during drought stress. Principle component analysis indicated that drought was the major contributing factor regulating transcriptome changes. Up regulation of many transcription factors, stress signaling factors, detoxification genes, and genes involved in phytohormone signaling and citrulline metabolism occurred under the water deficit conditions. The C. colocynthis transcriptome data highlight the activation of a large set of drought related genes in this species, thus providing a valuable resource for future functional analysis of candidate genes in defense of drought stress. PMID:25118696

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Trends and periodicities of regional drought projections in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Vivek; Jain, Manoj Kumar

2017-04-01

Climate change is believed to be altering the hydrologic cycle of different regions worldwide. This may alter the occurrence and distribution of extreme events such as droughts and floods. India is one of the most drought affected country, it is therefore important to understand spatiotemporal variation of droughts in future due to climate change. In this paper, we have analyzed the spatiotemporal projections of droughts over India for 21st century using Global Climate Model (GCM) precipitation projections of ESM2G model under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. K-means Clustering algorithm has been exploited to obtain homogeneous precipitation region in India for regional drought analysis. Further, temporal analysis of projected annual minimum SPI for year 2006 to 2100 has been performed for different homogeneous regions obtained using cluster analysis. Trend analysis of annual minimum SPI series has also been performed using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope method. Furthermore, periodicity in SPI series have been examined using wavelet periodogram analysis. Findings of this paper suggest that major drought events for Northeastern and Southern India are likely to occur in second half of the 21st century while for all other parts of India, most of the major drought events are expected in first half of the 21st century. Also, wavelet periodicity analysis indicates inter-annual periodicities of projected droughts between 3 to 9.5 years in different regions of India.

Analysis of trends and dominant periodicities in drought variables in India: A wavelet transform based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Nitin; Gupta, Divya; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Adamowski, Jan; Madramootoo, Chandra A.

2016-12-01

In this study, seasonal trends as well as dominant and significant periods of variability of drought variables were analyzed for 30 rainfall subdivisions in India over 141 years (1871-2012). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used as a meteorological drought indicator, and various drought variables (monsoon SPI, non-monsoon SPI, yearly SPI, annual drought duration, annual drought severity and annual drought peak) were analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall test to analyze trends and dominant periodicities associated with the drought variables. Furthermore, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum was used to analyze significant periods of variability associated with the drought variables. From the trend analysis, we observed that over the second half of the 20th century, drought occurrences increased significantly in subdivisions of Northeast and Central India. In both short-term (2-8 years) and decadal (16-32 years) periodicities, the drought variables were found to influence the trend. However, CWT analysis indicated that the dominant periodic components were not significant for most of the geographical subdivisions. Although inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic components play an important role, they may not completely explain the variability associated with the drought variables across the country.

Snow drought in western U.S. mountains: proximate causes, regional differences, and implications for streamflow and forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harpold, A. A.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.

2017-12-01

Although drought is a recurring problem, recent extreme snow droughts have refocused attention on the interaction of meteorological extremes and snow accumulation in mountains. Only recently have two distinct types of snow drought been defined that help to differentiate a variety of water management implications. Dry snow drought is caused by deficits of winter precipitation and resulting low snow accumulation. Warm snow drought is characterized by temperature extremes causing faster and earlier snowmelt and/or shifts from snow to rain. Here we use 462 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites in the western U.S. to quantify snow drought as 75% of the long-term average snow water equivalent (SWE). We further subdivide dry snow droughts using SWE to winter precipitation (SWE/P) ratios that were near normal from warm snow droughts where SWE/P ratios were below normal and experienced SWE losses (warm-melt) or received unusual amounts of winter rain (warm-rain snow drought). Using this method we show clear regional patterns in the type and frequency of snow drought. Warm snow droughts on April 1st were most common in all but the highest elevations of the Rocky Mountains. The middle Rocky Mountains sites also experienced less frequent snow drought than the maritime and southern mountains. Warm-melt snow droughts were the primary cause in the Cascade Mountains and the southwestern sites, with only the Sierra Nevada and Wasatch mountains showing consistent warm-rain snow drought. These regional differences limited the predictability of snow drought with simple models of temperature and precipitation. We will discuss the effects of snow drought type and magnitude on streamflow forecasting skill using empirical relationships developed by water management agencies. We expect these types of snow drought to differentially affect streamflow regime and its predictability, as well as forest growth and mortality during and following drought.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

Using Enhanced Grace Water Storage Data to Improve Drought Detection by the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houborg, Rasmus; Rodell, Matthew; Lawrimore, Jay; Li, Bailing; Reichle, Rolf; Heim, Richard; Rosencrans, Matthew; Tinker, Rich; Famiglietti, James S.; Svoboda, Mark;

Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy

PubMed Central

Saatchi, Sassan; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Anderson, Liana O.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Nemani, Ramakrishna

2013-01-01

Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Satellite and in situ observations have shown an increase in fire occurrence during drought years and tree mortality following severe droughts, but to date there has been no assessment of long-term impacts of these droughts across landscapes in Amazonia. Here, we use satellite microwave observations of rainfall and canopy backscatter to show that more than 70 million hectares of forest in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy structure and moisture. Remarkably, and despite the gradual recovery in total rainfall in subsequent years, the decrease in canopy backscatter persisted until the next major drought, in 2010. The decline in backscatter is attributed to changes in structure and water content associated with the forest upper canopy. The persistence of low backscatter supports the slow recovery (>4 y) of forest canopy structure after the severe drought in 2005. The result suggests that the occurrence of droughts in Amazonia at 5–10 y frequency may lead to persistent alteration of the forest canopy. PMID:23267086

Assessing and mapping drought hazard in Africa and South-Central America with a Meteorological Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrao, Hugo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Drought is a recurring extreme climate event characterized by a temporary deficit of precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow, or any combination of the three taking place at the same time. The immediate consequences of short-term (i.e. a few weeks duration) droughts are, for example, a fall in crop production, poor pasture growth and a decline in fodder supplies from crop residues, whereas prolonged water shortages (e.g. of several months or years duration) may, amongst others, lead to a reduction in hydro-electrical power production and an increase of forest fires. As a result, comprehensive drought risk management is nowadays critical for many regions in the world. Examples are many African and South-and Central American countries that strongly depend on rain-fed agriculture for economic development with hydroelectricity and biomass as main sources of energy. Drought risk is the probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between drought hazard, i.e. the physical nature of droughts, and the degree to which a population or activity is vulnerable to its effects. As vulnerability to drought is increasing globally and certain tasks, such as distributive policies (e.g. relief aid, regulatory exemptions, or preparedness investments), require information on drought severity that is comparable across different climatic regions, greater attention has recently been directed to the development of methods for a standardized quantification of drought hazard. In this study we, therefore, concentrate on a methodology for assessing the severity of historical droughts and on mapping the frequency of their occurrence. To achieve these goals, we use a new Meteorological Drought Severity Index (MDSI). The motivation is twofold: 1) the observation that primitive indices of drought severity directly measure local precipitation shortages and cannot be compared geographically; and that 2) standardized indices of drought do not take into account the intra-annual variability of precipitation in estimating the severity of events that can impact on seasonal activities. The MDSI is standardized in space and time, and considers the relative monthly precipitation deficits and the seasonal influence of precipitation regimes in the meteorological drought severity computation. In this study, the calculation of the MDSI is performed with monthly precipitation totals from the Full Data Reanalysis Monthly Product Version 6.0 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). This dataset provides a global analysis at 0.5 dd latitude/longitude grid spacing of monthly precipitation over land from operational in situ rain gauges collected between January 1901 and December 2010. Using the MDSI, we estimated the severity of drought events that occurred in the past 100 years in Africa and South-Central America, and produced drought hazard maps based on the probability of exceedance the median historical severity. Overall, results indicate that drought hazard is high for semiarid areas, such as Northeastern and Southern South America, as well as Eastern and Southwestern Africa. Since available water resources in semiarid areas are already insufficient to permanently meet the demands of human activities, the outcomes highlight the aggravated risk for food security and confirm the need for the implementation of disaster mitigation measures in those regions.

Temporal Changes in Community Resilience to Drought Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihunov, V.

2017-12-01

The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized. While considerable research on the climatological aspect of droughts has been conducted, studies on the resilience of human communities to the effects of drought remain limited. Understanding how different communities respond to and recover from the drought hazard, i.e. their community resilience, should inform the development of better strategies to cope with the hazard. This research assesses community resilience to drought hazard in South-Central U.S. and captures the temporal changes of community resilience in the region facing the climate change. First, the study applies the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) framework using the existing drought incidence, crop damage, socio-economic and food-water-energy nexus variables, which allows to assign county-level resilience scores in the study region and derive variables contributing to the resilience. Second, it captures the temporal changes in community resilience by using the model extracted from the RIM study and socio-economic data from several consecutive time periods. The resilience measurement study should help understand the complex process underlying communities' response to the drought impacts. The results identify gaps in resilience planning and help the improvement of the community resilience to the droughts of increasing frequency and intensity.

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua

2016-01-01

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

Tree diversity does not always improve resistance of forest ecosystems to drought.

PubMed

Grossiord, Charlotte; Granier, André; Ratcliffe, Sophia; Bouriaud, Olivier; Bruelheide, Helge; Chećko, Ewa; Forrester, David Ian; Dawud, Seid Muhie; Finér, Leena; Pollastrini, Martina; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Valladares, Fernando; Bonal, Damien; Gessler, Arthur

2014-10-14

Climate models predict an increase in the intensity and frequency of drought episodes in the Northern Hemisphere. Among terrestrial ecosystems, forests will be profoundly impacted by drier climatic conditions, with drastic consequences for the functions and services they supply. Simultaneously, biodiversity is known to support a wide range of forest ecosystem functions and services. However, whether biodiversity also improves the resistance of these ecosystems to drought remains unclear. We compared soil drought exposure levels in a total of 160 forest stands within five major forest types across Europe along a gradient of tree species diversity. We assessed soil drought exposure in each forest stand by calculating the stand-level increase in carbon isotope composition of late wood from a wet to a dry year (Δδ(13)CS). Δδ(13)CS exhibited a negative linear relationship with tree species diversity in two forest types, suggesting that species interactions in these forests diminished the drought exposure of the ecosystem. However, the other three forest types were unaffected by tree species diversity. We conclude that higher diversity enhances resistance to drought events only in drought-prone environments. Managing forest ecosystems for high tree species diversity does not necessarily assure improved adaptability to the more severe and frequent drought events predicted for the future.

Simulating US agriculture in a modern Dust Bowl drought.

PubMed

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua

2016-12-12

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather 1-3 , and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts 4,5 . The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation 6 and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses ∼50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by ∼25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

USGS integrated drought science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.

2017-06-05

Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, ecosystems, agricultural production, critical infrastructure, energy costs, human health, and local economies (Milly and others, 2005; Wihlite, 2005; Vörösmarty and others, 2010; Choat and others, 2012; Ledger and others, 2013). As global temperatures continue to increase, the frequency, severity, extent, and duration of droughts are expected to increase across North America, affecting both humans and natural ecosystems (Parry and others, 2007).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long, proven history of delivering science and tools to help decision-makers manage and mitigate effects of drought. That said, there is substantial capacity for improved integration and coordination in the ways that the USGS provides drought science. A USGS Drought Team was formed in August 2016 to work across USGS Mission Areas to identify current USGS drought-related research and core capabilities. This information has been used to initiate the development of an integrated science effort that will bring the full USGS capacity to bear on this national crisis.

Time series analysis of hydrological drought under climate change with anthropogenic water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Y.; Yoshimura, K.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

Human society have altered terrestrial hydrological cycles by water management infrastructure, such as reservoirs and weirs for irrigation, in order to enable stable water use against natural variability. On the other hand, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter the hydro-meteorological cycles, and it is projected that drought frequency and/or intensity will increase in some regions. Thus reliable projection is a critical issue for our society in order to adapt for the change. However, only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic intervention on drought under climate change. This study focuses on hydrological drought, particularly on stream flow, as stream flow is one of the most easy-to-access water resource. HiGW-MAT, a state of arts land surface model capable to reproduce energy and water cycle considering the anthropogenic water management, is used to simulate the historical and future terrestrial water cycles. The model includes reservoir operation, water withdrawal and irrigation process. Five CMIP5 GCM outputs with bias-correction provided by ISI-MIP for 1980-2099 are used to force a set of simulations. Time series data of global hydrological drought for 120 years, with and without human activity, is analyzed in order to estimate the impact of climate change and the adaptation capacity of anthropogenic water management. It is identified that Europe, Central and Eastern Asia, East and West part of USA, Chile, Amazon basin and Congo basin will have large increases of drought more than 90 days. According to uncertainty check particular increases in Central USA and Southern and Eastern South America have high robustness. Dividing global land into 26 regions, we characterized the variation of drought time series for each region. Drought does not show abrupt change and show almost linear increase in many regions. Also, it is found that human activity effectively reduces the increasing rate and suppresses the natural variability under projected warming climate. Nevertheless, the increasing trends are significant under RCP8.5 scenario. In the regions where large increase of drought is projected, drought will depart from historical condition to unexperienced phase in each region until 2050. It alarms human society has to consider countermeasures for the coming change promptly.

Experimental droughts: Are precipitation variability and methodological trends hindering our understanding of ecological sensitivities to drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.

2017-12-01

Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key physiological thresholds. The results from this study have important implication for the design and interpretation of drought experiments as well as integrating field results with land surface models.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

2012-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

An Examination of Drought-Induced Hydraulic Stress in Conifer Forests Using a Coupled Ecohydrologic Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simeone, C.; Maneta, M. P.; Holden, Z. A.; Dobrowski, S.; Sala, A.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that increases in drought stress due to climate change will increase forest mortality across the western U.S. Although ecohydrologic models used to study regional hydrologic stress response in forests have made rapid advances in recent years, they often incorporate simplified descriptions of the local hydrology, do not implement an explicit description of plant hydraulics, and do not permit to study the tradeoffs between frequency, intensity, and accumulation of hydrologic stress in vegetation. We use the spatially-distributed, mechanistic ecohydrologic model Ech2o, which effectively captures spatial variations in both hydrology, energy exchanges, and regional climate to simulate high-resolution tree hydraulics, estimating soil and leaf water potential, tree effective water conductance, and percent loss of conductivity in the xylem (PLC) at 250 meter resolution and sub-daily timestep across a topographically complex landscape. Tree hydraulics are simulated assuming a diffusive process in the soil-tree-atmosphere continuum. We use PLC to develop a vegetation dynamic stress index that scales plant-level processes to the landscape scale, and that takes into account the temporal accumulation of instantaneous hydraulic stress, growing season length, frequency and duration of drought periods, and plant drought tolerance. The resulting index is interpreted as the probability of drought induced tree mortality in a given location during the simulated period. We apply this index to regions of Northern Idaho and Western Montana. Results show that drought stress is highly spatially variable, sensitive to local-scale hydrologic and atmospheric conditions, and responsive to the recovery rate from individual hydraulic stress episodes.

Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Duffy, Philip B.; Brando, Paulo; Asner, Gregory P.; Field, Christopher B.

2015-01-01

Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests. PMID:26460046

In Forests Globally, Large Trees Suffer Most during Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, A. C.; McDowell, N. G.; Allen, C. D.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.

2014-12-01

Globally, drought events are increasing in both frequency and intensity. Spatial and temporal variation in water availability is expected to alter the ecophysiology and structure of forests, with consequent feedbacks to climate change. Extensive tree mortality induced by heat and aridity has been documented across a range of latitudes, and several global vegetation models have simulated widespread forest die-off in the future. The impact of drought on forest structure and function will depend on the differential responses of trees of different sizes. Understanding the size-dependence of drought-induced mortality is necessary to predict local and global impacts. Here we show that in forests worldwide, drought has a greater impact on the growth and mortality of large trees compared to smaller trees. This trend holds true for forests ranging from semiarid woodlands to tropical rainforests. This finding contrasts with what would be expected if deep root access to water were the primary determinant of tree drought response. Rather, the greater drought response of larger trees could be driven by greater inherent vulnerability of large trees to hydraulic stress or by canopy position becoming more of a liability under drought, as exposed crowns face higher evaporative demand. These findings imply that future droughts will have a disproportionate effect on large trees, resulting in a larger feedback to climate change than would occur if all tree size classes were equally affected by drought.

Atmospheric rivers as drought busters on the U.S. west coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael D.

2013-01-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have, in recent years, been recognized as the cause of the large majority of major floods in rivers all along the U.S. West Coast and as the source of 30%–50% of all precipitation in the same region. The present study surveys the frequency with which ARs have played a critical role as a common cause of the end of droughts on the West Coast. This question was based on the observation that, in most cases, droughts end abruptly as a result of the arrival of an especially wet month or, more exactly, a few very large storms. This observation is documented using both Palmer Drought Severity Index and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index measures of drought occurrence for climate divisions across the conterminous United States from 1895 to 2010. When the individual storm sequences that contributed most to the wet months that broke historical West Coast droughts from 1950 to 2010 were evaluated, 33%–74% of droughts were broken by the arrival of landfalling AR storms. In the Pacific Northwest, 60%–74% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by the arrival of AR storms. In California, about 33%–40% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by landfalling AR storms, with more localized low pressure systems responsible for many of the remaining drought breaks.

Impacts of anthropogenic activities on different hydrological drought characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tijdeman, Erik; Stahl, Kerstin; Bachmair, Sophie

2015-04-01

The natural hazard drought can have severe impacts on a variety of sectors and at a variety of scales. Droughts, here defined as below average water availability, occur everywhere. However, the impact of a drought event is not only influenced by its severity but also by the vulnerability of an area to droughts. Research in catchments with natural flow conditions is crucial to gain process understanding about hydrological droughts. However, the locations of catchments with natural flow are often not representative for regions with a socioeconomic sector that is highly vulnerable to droughts. In these more vulnerable areas, human activities like groundwater extraction can intensify hydrological droughts. On the other hand, human activities can also mitigate or limit the magnitude of drought events. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of different anthropogenic influences on streamflow droughts by comparing hydrological drought characteristics between catchments with natural streamflow and with regulated or otherwise altered streamflow. The study is based on a large set of streamflow records from catchments in Germany, the UK and the USA with either known anthropogenic influences or natural streamflow conditions. Different drought characteristics (duration, deficit, frequency and timing of drought events) are computed for the selected stations. The drought characteristics in catchments influenced by various anthropogenic activities are stratified by the characteristics of anthropogenic influence, but also by similar physical and climatological properties. These stratified groups are then compared to drought characteristics in natural catchments with similar properties. Results show both negative and positive impacts of different human activities on droughts. For example, urbanized areas with low flow regulations show hydrological droughts with shorter durations and lower deficit volumes compared to nearby natural catchments, while records downstream of reservoirs show intensified drought characteristics. The differences between droughts in natural and regulated flow regimes, however, appear to be non-linear and variable with the severity of drought events. In conclusion, this study shows systematic impacts of human activities on different drought characteristics and furthermore reveals that management patterns have limits during severe droughts.

A global drought climatology for the 3rd edition of the World Atlas of Desertification (WAD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Carrao, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Antofie, Tiberiu; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen

2013-04-01

A new version of the World Atlas of Desertification (WAD) is being compiled in the framework of cooperation between the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). This initiative aims at mapping the global land degradation and desertification, as well as introducing the reader with complex interactions of geo-physical, socio-economic, and political aspects that affect the environmental sustainability. Recurrent extreme events resulting from climate change, such as more severe droughts, combined with non-adapted land use practices can affect the resilience of ecosystems tipping them into a less productive state. Thus, to describe the effects of climatological hazards on land degradation and desertification processes, we computed a World drought climatology that will be part of the 3rd edition of the WAD and will replace and update to 2010 the results presented in the 2nd edition in 1997. This paper presents the methodology used to compute three parameters included in the WAD drought climatology, i.e. drought frequency, intensity and duration, and discusses their spatio-temporal patterns both at global and continental scales. Because drought is mainly driven and triggered by a rainfall deficit, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the drought indicator to estimate our climatological parameters. The SPI is a statistical precipitation-based drought indicator widely used in drought-related studies. We calculated the SPI on three different accumulation periods: 3 months (SPI-3), 6 months (SPI-6), and 12 months (SPI-12), in order to take into account meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought-related features. Each quantity has been calculated on a monthly basis using the baseline period between January 1951 and December 2010. As data input, we used the Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 (0.5˚x0.5˚) of gridded monthly precipitation provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). This dataset was selected after an extensive quality check on data reliability, homogeneity, and physical consistency. We defined the drought frequency as the number of months with SPI below -1 out of all months in different periods of 10-15 years between 1951 and 2010. For the drought intensity we analyzed the drought events with at least 3 consecutive months with SPI below -1. The drought duration is defined in an operative way: a drought starts when SPI first falls below -1 and it ends when it turns back positive (i.e. >0) for at least 2 consecutive months. The results show that in the last two decades, as compared to the long-term normal conditions, the regions most affected by drought events were Congo and Central Africa, North-Eastern China, the Australian South-Eastern coast, and the Middle East. In general, an increase in duration and intensity of drought events was found for almost all the Northern Hemisphere. We also focused on some regional case studies dealing with drought events in the Mediterranean region, the Horn of Africa, and South America in the last 15 years

Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Palik, Brian J.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Battaglia, Mike A.; Asherin, Lance A.

2017-01-01

1. Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary driver of competitive intensity among trees, which influences tree growth and mortality. Manipulating tree population density may be a mechanism for moderating drought-induced stress and growth reductions, although the relationship between tree population density and tree drought vulnerability remains poorly quantified, especially across climatic gradients.2. In this study, we examined three long-term forest ecosystem experiments in two widely distributed North American pine species, ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa (Lawson & C. Lawson) and red pine Pinus resinosa (Aiton), to better elucidate the relationship between tree population density, growth and drought. These experiments span a broad latitude and aridity range and include tree population density treatments that have been purposefully maintained for several decades. We investigated how tree population density influenced resistance (growth during drought) and resilience (growth after drought compared to pre-drought growth) of stand-level growth during and after documented drought events.3. Our results show that relative tree population density was negatively related to drought resistance and resilience, indicating that trees growing at lower densities were less vulnerable to drought. This result was apparent in all three forest ecosystems, and was consistent across species, stand age and drought intensity.4. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlighted that managing pine forest ecosystems at low tree population density represents a promising adaptive strategy for reducing the adverse impacts of drought on forest growth in coming decades. Nonetheless, the broader applicability of our findings to other types of forest ecosystems merits additional investigation.

Effects of meteorological droughts on agricultural water resources in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Houquan; Wu, Yihua; Li, Yijun; Liu, Yongqiang

2017-05-01

With the global warming, frequencies of drought are rising in the humid area of southern China. In this study, the effects of meteorological drought on the agricultural water resource based on the agricultural water resource carrying capacity (AWRCC) in southern China were investigated. The entire study area was divided into three regions based on the distributions of climate and agriculture. The concept of the maximum available water resources for crops was used to calculate AWRCC. Meanwhile, an agricultural drought intensity index (ADI), which was suitable for rice planting areas, was proposed based on the difference between crop water requirements and precipitation. The actual drought area and crop yield in drought years from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. The results showed that ADI and AWRCC were significantly correlated with the actual drought occurrence area and food yield in the study area, which indicated ADI and AWRCC could be used in drought-related studies. The effects of seasonal droughts on AWRCC strongly depended on both the crop growth season and planting structure. The influence of meteorological drought on agricultural water resources was pronounced in regions with abundant water resources, especially in Southwest China, which was the most vulnerable to droughts. In Southwest China, which has dry and wet seasons, reducing the planting area of dry season crops and rice could improve AWRCC during drought years. Likewise, reducing the planting area of double-season rice could improve AWRCC during drought years in regions with a double-season rice cropping system. Our findings highlight the importance of adjusting the proportions of crop planting to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources and alleviate drought hazards in some humid areas.

Characterizing Drought and Vegetation Response at the Forest Line in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, A. G.; Crausbay, S.; Brewington, L.; Giambelluca, T. W.

2016-12-01

Globally, montane treelines are thought to be controlled by low-temperature limitations. The upper limit of cloud forest on Haleakalā, Maui, however, is hypothesized to be controlled by moisture limitations, particularly drought events. Drought in Hawai`i is largely driven by El Niño and future projections show an increased frequency of extreme El Niño events, which may ultimately lower the forest line and threaten biodiversity in Hawai`i. This study aims to characterize the drought regime at the forest line ecotone in Hawai`i since 1920, investigate the role of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and examine the landscape-scale vegetation responses to drought around the forest line. Drought events were characterized from 1920 to 2014 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Two remotely-sensed vegetation indices (VI) were analyzed from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite measurements from 2000 to 2014 to determine vegetation responses to drought events identified using the SPI. The forest line area experienced 28 drought events from 1920 to 2014. A multi-year drought from 2008 to 2014 was the most extreme on record, persisting for 70 consecutive months and resulting in browning both above and below the forest line while the other three drought events since 2000 resulted in overall greening. No clear pattern was found between El Niño event strength and drought severity, and surprisingly almost half of the droughts were associated with La Niña events. This work highlights for the first time the importance of La Niña events for Hawaiian drought and contributes to our understanding of ecological response to drought at the forest line ecotone.

Measures of Groundwater Drought from the Long-term Monitoring Data in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, E.; Park, J.; Woo, N. C.

2017-12-01

Recently, drought has been increased in its severity and frequency along the climate change in Korea. There are several criteria for alarming drought, for instance, based on the no-rainfall days, the amount of stream discharge, and the water levels of reservoirs. However, farmers depending on groundwater still have been suffered in preparing drought especially in the Spring. No-rainfall days continue, groundwater exploitation increases, water table declines, stream discharge decreases, and then the effects of drought become serious. Thus, the drought index based on the groundwater level is needed for the preparedness of drought disaster. Palmer et al.(1965, USGS) has proposed a method to set the threshold for the decline of the groundwater level in 5 stages based on the daily water-level data over the last 30 years. In this study, according to Peters et al.(2003), the threshold of groundwater level was estimated using the daily water-level data at five sites with significant drought experiences in Korea. Water levels and precipitations data were obtained from the national groundwater monitoring wells and the automatic weather stations, respectively, for 10 years from 2005 to 2014. From the water-level changes, the threshold was calculated when the value of the drought criterion (c), the ratio of the deficit below the threshold to the deficit below the average, is 0.3. As a result, the monthly drought days were high in 2009 and 2011 in Uiryeong, and from 2005 to 2008 in Boeun. The validity of the approach and the threshold can be evaluated by comparing calculated monthly drought days with recorded drought in the past. Through groundwater drought research, it is expected that not only surface water also groundwater resource management should be implemented more efficiently to overcome drought disaster.

Post-fire soil functionality and microbial community structure in a Mediterranean shrubland subjected to experimental drought.

PubMed

Hinojosa, M Belén; Parra, Antonio; Laudicina, Vito Armando; Moreno, José M

2016-12-15

Fire may cause significant alterations in soil properties. Post-fire soil dynamics can vary depending, among other factors, on rainfall patterns. However, little is known regarding variations in response to post-fire drought. This is relevant in arid and semiarid areas with poor soils, like much of the western Mediterranean. Furthermore, climate change projections in such areas anticipate reduced precipitation and longer annual drought periods, together with an increase in fire severity and frequency. This research evaluates the effects of experimental drought after fire on soil dynamics of a Cistus-Erica shrubland (Central Spain). A replicated (n=4) field experiment was conducted in which the total rainfall and its patterns were manipulated by means of a rain-out shelters and irrigation system. The treatments were: environmental control (natural rainfall), historical control (average rainfall, 2months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction of historical control, 5months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7months drought). After one growing season under these rainfall treatments, the plots were burned. One set of unburned plots under natural rainfall served as an additional control. Soils were collected seasonally. Fire increased soil P and N availability. Post-fire drought treatments reduced available soil P but increased N concentration (mainly nitrate). Fire reduced available K irrespective of drought treatments. Fire reduced enzyme activities and carbon mineralization rate, a reduction that was higher in post-fire drought-treated soils. Fire decreased soil microbial biomass and the proportion of fungi, while that of actinomycetes increased. Post-fire drought decreased soil total microbial biomass and fungi, with bacteria becoming more abundant. Our results support that increasing drought after fire could compromise the resilience of Mediterranean ecosystems to fire. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strong spatial variability in trace gas dynamics following experimental drought in a humid tropical forest

Treesearch

Tana Wood; W. L. Silver

2012-01-01

[1] Soil moisture is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems, strongly affecting carbon (C) and nutrient availability as well as trace gas production and consumption in soils. Models predict increasing drought frequency in tropical forest ecosystems, which could feed back on future climate change directly via effects on trace gasdynamics and...

Chapter 4 - Moisture deficit and surplus in the conterminous United States for three time windows: 2016, 2014-2016, and 2012-2016

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

2018-01-01

Droughts affect most forested ecosystems of the United States, but they vary widely in frequency and intensity (Hanson andWeltzin 2000). Most western U.S. forests experience annual seasonal droughts, with the seasonality determined by broadscaleatmospheric circulation patterns and topography. For example, forests along the Pacific Coast usually...

Brief communication: Drought likelihood for East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hui; Huntingford, Chris

2018-02-01

The East Africa drought in autumn of year 2016 caused malnutrition, illness and death. Close to 16 million people across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya needed food, water and medical assistance. Many factors influence drought stress and response. However, inevitably the following question is asked: are elevated greenhouse gas concentrations altering extreme rainfall deficit frequency? We investigate this with general circulation models (GCMs). After GCM bias correction to match the climatological mean of the CHIRPS data-based rainfall product, climate models project small decreases in probability of drought with the same (or worse) severity as 2016 ASO (August to October) East African event. This is by the end of the 21st century compared to the probabilities for present day. However, when further adjusting the climatological variability of GCMs to also match CHIRPS data, by additionally bias-correcting for variance, then the probability of drought occurrence will increase slightly over the same period.

Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2016-04-01

Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun

2018-02-01

It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.

A first look at global flash drought: long term change and short term predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Wang, Linying; Ji, Peng

2017-04-01

"Flash drought" became popular after the unexpected 2012 central USA drought, mainly due to its rapid development, low predictability and devastating impacts on water resources and crop yields. A pilot study by Mo and Lettenmaier (2015) found that flash drought, based on a definition of concurrent heat extreme, soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration (ET) enhancement at pentad scale, were in decline over USA during recent 100 years. Meanwhile, a recent work indicated that the occurrence of flash drought in China was doubled during the past 30 years, where a severe flash drought in the summer of 2013 ravaged 13 provinces in southern China. As global warming increases the frequency of heat waves and accelerates the hydrological cycle, the flash drought is expected to increase in general, but its trend might also be affected by interannual to decadal climate oscillations. To consolidate the hotspots of flash drought and the effects of climate change on flash drought, a global inventory is being conducted by using multi-source observations (in-situ, satellite and reanalysis), CMIP5 historical simulations and future projections under different forcing scenarios, as well as global land surface hydrological modeling for key variables including surface air temperature, soil moisture and ET. In particular, a global picture of the flash drought distribution, the contribution of naturalized and anthropogenic forcings to global flash drought change, and the risk of global flash drought in the future, will be presented. Besides investigating the long-term change of flash drought, providing reliable early warning is also essential to developing adaptation strategies. While regional drought early warning systems have been emerging in recent decade, forecasting of flash drought is still at an exploratory stage due to limited understanding of flash drought predictability. Here, a set of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast datasets are being used to assess the short term predictability of flash drought via a perfect model assumption.

Transcriptomic studies reveal a key metabolic pathway contributing to a well-maintained photosynthetic system under drought stress in foxtail millet (Setaria italica L.).

PubMed

Shi, Weiping; Cheng, Jingye; Wen, Xiaojie; Wang, Jixiang; Shi, Guanyan; Yao, Jiayan; Hou, Liyuan; Sun, Qian; Xiang, Peng; Yuan, Xiangyang; Dong, Shuqi; Guo, Pingyi; Guo, Jie

2018-01-01

Drought stress is one of the most important abiotic factors limiting crop productivity. A better understanding of the effects of drought on millet ( Setaria italica L.) production, a model crop for studying drought tolerance, and the underlying molecular mechanisms responsible for drought stress responses is vital to improvement of agricultural production. In this study, we exposed the drought resistant F 1 hybrid, M79, and its parental lines E1 and H1 to drought stress. Subsequent physiological analysis demonstrated that M79 showed higher photosynthetic energy conversion efficiency and drought tolerance than its parents. A transcriptomic study using leaves collected six days after drought treatment, when the soil water content was about ∼20%, identified 3066, 1895, and 2148 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in M79, E1 and H1 compared to the respective untreated controls, respectively. Further analysis revealed 17 Gene Ontology (GO) enrichments and 14 Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways in M79, including photosystem II (PSII) oxygen-evolving complex, peroxidase (POD) activity, plant hormone signal transduction, and chlorophyll biosynthesis. Co-regulation analysis suggested that these DEGs in M79 contributed to the formation of a regulatory network involving multiple biological processes and pathways including photosynthesis, signal transduction, transcriptional regulation, redox regulation, hormonal signaling, and osmotic regulation. RNA-seq analysis also showed that some photosynthesis-related DEGs were highly expressed in M79 compared to its parental lines under drought stress. These results indicate that various molecular pathways, including photosynthesis, respond to drought stress in M79, and provide abundant molecular information for further analysis of the underlying mechanism responding to this stress.

Intra-annual plasticity of growth mediates drought resilience over multiple years in tropical seedling communities.

PubMed

O'Brien, Michael J; Ong, Robert; Reynolds, Glen

2017-10-01

Precipitation patterns are changing across the globe causing more severe and frequent drought for many forest ecosystems. Although research has focused on the resistance of tree populations and communities to these novel precipitation regimes, resilience of forests is also contingent on recovery following drought, which remains poorly understood, especially in aseasonal tropical forests. We used rainfall exclusion shelters to manipulate the interannual frequency of drought for diverse seedling communities in a tropical forest and assessed resistance, recovery and resilience of seedling growth and mortality relative to everwet conditions. We found seedlings exposed to recurrent periods of drought altered their growth rates throughout the year relative to seedlings in everwet conditions. During drought periods, seedlings grew slower than seedlings in everwet conditions (i.e., resistance phase) while compensating with faster growth after drought (i.e., recovery phase). However, the response to frequent drought was species dependent as some species grew significantly slower with frequent drought relative to everwet conditions while others grew faster with frequent drought due to overcompensating growth during the recovery phase. In contrast, mortality was unrelated to rainfall conditions and instead correlated with differences in light. Intra-annual plasticity of growth and increased annual growth of some species led to an overall maintenance of growth rates of tropical seedling communities in response to more frequent drought. These results suggest these communities can potentially adapt to predicted climate change scenarios and that plasticity in the growth of species, and not solely changes in mortality rates among species, may contribute to shifts in community composition under drought. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Megadroughts: The scary past told by tree rings and its implications for the future (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, E. R.

2013-12-01

Drought occurs over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, from local single-year events to continental-scale droughts lasting several years or even decades. Much of our understanding of severe multi-year droughts or megadroughts has been possible through the development and analysis of drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies spanning the past several centuries to a thousand or more years. Individually, these chronologies have provided us with a new understanding of megadroughts at the local level. When many tree-ring chronologies distributed over large regions are used collectively to reconstruct gridded instrumental drought indices like the Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI), it is possible to produce drought atlases (annual maps of reconstructed drought), which can be used to study the large-scale spatiotemporal variability of megadroughts. Drought atlases have been produced now for North American (the North American Drought Atlas - NADA), monsoon Asia (the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas - MADA), and Europe-North Africa-Middle East (the Old World Drought Atlas - OWDA). This covers most of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) land area. In every region, megadroughts of unprecedented duration - in some cases over 100 years long - have been identified prior to the 20th Century instrumental record and the frequency of megadroughts is greater during medieval and early post-medieval times approximately 600-1000 years ago, a period of generally warmer-than-average temperatures over large areas of the NH. Examples from the NADA, MADA, and OWDA, some associated with past cultural decline and collapse, illustrate the severe impacts that some of these megadroughts have had on humanity. These epochs of unprecedented aridity clearly predate the recent buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases and, thus, must be viewed as a natural property of the climate system. This is a scary finding because it means that the climate system has the inherent capacity to slip into a more extreme mode of hydroclimatic variability, one in which megadroughts are more frequent and prolonged. The reasons for this are not well understood, but they appear to be associated with warmer climate conditions, such as that experienced during medieval times. Climate model projections of future climate change due to greenhouse warming indicate that the dry subtropical zones of the world will expand poleward in the future. Given the apparent association between past megadroughts and warmer climate, we may be in danger of slipping into a new megadrought era, like that seen during medieval times in the drought atlases, even if the underlying mechanisms are different. This suggests that past megadroughts should be used as analogues of future hydroclimatic change for modeling and impact studies.

Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

2017-12-01

Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

Fire suppression has led to greater drought-sensitivity in dry conifer forests: tree-ring carbon isotope evidence from Central Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voelker, S.; Merschel, A. G.; Meinzer, F. C.; Spies, T. A.; Still, C. J.

2016-12-01

Mortality events of economically and ecologically important conifers have been widespread across Western North America over recent decades. Many of these events have been linked to "global change-type droughts" characterized by greater temperatures and evaporative demand. In parallel, since the early to mid- 20th century, increasing atmospheric [CO2] has been shown to increase the water use efficiency (WUE) of trees worldwide while conifer forests in western North America have become denser after the advent of modern fire suppression efforts. Therefore, competing hypotheses include that conifer forests have experienced 1) less drought stress due to water savings from increased WUE, 2) more drought stress due to increased demand for water in dense forests with greater leaf area index, or 3) unchanging stress because these two factors have cancelled each other out. To provide a test of these hypotheses we used inter-annual latewood carbon isotope discrimination, Δ13C, across a dry mixed-conifer forest landscape of central Oregon in the rain shadow of the Cascade Mountains. The forests are dominated by old-growth ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa) and younger and fire-intolerant grand firs (Abies grandis). Dendrochronological dating of tree establishment and fires scars established sharp declines in fire frequency and associated increases in the densities of grand fir since the early 1900s. Δ13C data for ponderosa pine and grand fir spanned 1830-2013 and 1900-2013, respectively. For our analyses these years were split into periods of high fire frequency (1830-1900), moderate fire frequency (1901-1956) and fire-exclusion (1957-2013). Comparisons of Δ13C to reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index values for the same years revealed that leaf gas exchange of both species has been more sensitive to drought during the recent fire-exclusion period compared to previous periods when surface fires kept tree densities much lower. Similar research is needed elsewhere to provide additional tests. However, this initial evidence suggests that despite CO2-driven increases in WUE, conifer forests in western North America have experienced greater drought stress and been made more susceptible to mortality events due to progressive increases in tree densities and competition for water over the past century.

The effect of drought on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) release from peatland soil and vegetation sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritson, Jonathan P.; Brazier, Richard E.; Graham, Nigel J. D.; Freeman, Chris; Templeton, Michael R.; Clark, Joanna M.

2017-06-01

Drought conditions are expected to increase in frequency and severity as the climate changes, representing a threat to carbon sequestered in peat soils. Downstream water treatment works are also at risk of regulatory compliance failures and higher treatment costs due to the increase in riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) often observed after droughts. More frequent droughts may also shift dominant vegetation in peatlands from Sphagnum moss to more drought-tolerant species. This paper examines the impact of drought on the production and treatability of DOC from four vegetation litters (Calluna vulgaris, Juncus effusus, Molinia caerulea and Sphagnum spp.) and a peat soil. We found that mild droughts caused a 39.6 % increase in DOC production from peat and that peat DOC that had been exposed to oxygen was harder to remove by conventional water treatment processes (coagulation/flocculation). Drought had no effect on the amount of DOC production from vegetation litters; however large variation was observed between typical peatland species (Sphagnum and Calluna) and drought-tolerant grassland species (Juncus and Molinia), with the latter producing more DOC per unit weight. This would therefore suggest the increase in riverine DOC often observed post-drought is due entirely to soil microbial processes and DOC solubility rather than litter layer effects. Long-term shifts in species diversity may, therefore, be the most important impact of drought on litter layer DOC flux, whereas pulses related to drought may be observed in peat soils and are likely to become more common in the future. These results provide evidence in support of catchment management which increases the resilience of peat soils to drought, such as ditch blocking to raise water tables.

Modeling the Effects of Drought Events on Forest Ecosystem Functioning Historically and Under Scenarios of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, J.; Hanan, E. J.; Kolden, C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Tague, C.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.

2017-12-01

Drought events have been increasing across the western United States in recent years. Many studies have shown that, in the context of climate change, droughts will continue to be stronger, more frequent, and prolonged in the future. However, the response of forest ecosystems to droughts, particularly multi-year droughts, is not well understood. The objectives of this study are to examine how drought events of varying characteristics (e.g. intensity, duration, frequency, etc.) have affected the functioning of forest ecosystems historically, and how changing drought characteristics (including multi-year droughts) may affect forest functioning in a future climate. We utilize the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to simulate impacts of both historical droughts and scenarios of future droughts on forest ecosystems. RHESSys is a spatially-distributed and process-based model that captures the interactions between coupled biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles at catchment scales. Here our case study is the Trail Creek catchment of the Big Wood River basin in Idaho, the Northwestern USA. For historical simulations, we use the gridded meteorological data of 1979 to 2016; for future climate scenarios, we utilize downscaled data from GCMs that have been demonstrated to capture drought events in the Northwest of the USA. From these climate projections, we identify various types of drought in intensity and duration, including multi-year drought events. We evaluate the following responses of ecosystems to these events: 1) evapotranspiration and streamflow; 2) gross primary productivity; 3) the post-drought recovery of plant biomass; and 4) the forest functioning and recovery after multi-year droughts. This research is part of an integration project to examine the roles of drought, insect outbreak, and forest management activities on wildfire activity and its impacts. This project will provide improved information for forest managers and communities in the wild urban interface to adapt to climate change.

Empirical analysis of farmers' drought risk perception: objective factors, personal circumstances, and social influence.

PubMed

Duinen, Rianne van; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Peter; Veen, Anne van der

2015-04-01

Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Proteome Analysis of Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) under Severe Drought and Salt Stress.

PubMed

El Rabey, Haddad A; Al-Malki, Abdulrahman L; Abulnaja, Khalid O

2016-01-01

Date palm cultivars differently tolerate salinity and drought stress. This study was carried out to study the response of date palm to severe salinity and drought based on leaf proteome analysis. Eighteen-month-old date palm plants were subjected to severe salt (48 g/L NaCl) and drought (82.5 g/L PEG or no irrigation) conditions for one month. Using a protein 2D electrophoresis method, 55 protein spots were analyzed using mass spectrometry. ATP synthase CF1 alpha chains were significantly upregulated under all three stress conditions. Changes in the abundance of RubisCO activase and one of the RubisCO fragments were significant in the same spots only for salt stress and drought stress with no irrigation, and oxygen-evolving enhancer protein 2 was changed in different spots. Transketolase was significantly changed only in drought stress with PEG. The expression of salt and drought stress genes of the chosen protein spots was either overexpressed or downexpressed as revealed by the high or low protein abundance, respectively. In addition, all drought tolerance genes due to no irrigation were downregulated. In conclusion, the proteome analysis of date palm under salinity and drought conditions indicated that both salinity and drought tolerance genes were differentially expressed resulting in high or low protein abundance of the chosen protein spots as a result of exposure to drought and salinity stress condition.

Functional adjustments of xylem anatomy to climatic variability: insights from long-term Ilex aquifolium tree-ring series.

PubMed

Rita, Angelo; Cherubini, Paolo; Leonardi, Stefano; Todaro, Luigi; Borghetti, Marco

2015-08-01

The present study assessed the effects of climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits, including ring width, vessel size, vessel frequency and derived variables, i.e., potential hydraulic conductivity and xylem vulnerability to cavitation in Ilex aquifolium L. trees using long-term tree-ring time series obtained at two climatically contrasting sites, one mesic site in Switzerland (CH) and one drought-prone site in Italy (ITA). Relationships were explored by examining different xylem traits, and point pattern analysis was applied to investigate vessel clustering. We also used generalized additive models and bootstrap correlation functions to describe temperature and precipitation effects. Results indicated modified radial growth and xylem anatomy in trees over the last century; in particular, vessel frequency increased markedly at both sites in recent years, and all xylem traits examined, with the exception of xylem cavitation vulnerability, were higher at the CH mesic compared with the ITA drought site. A significant vessel clustering was observed at the ITA site, which could contribute to an enhanced tolerance to drought-induced embolism. Flat and negative relationships between vessel size and ring width were observed, suggesting carbon was not allocated to radial growth under conditions which favored stem water conduction. Finally, in most cases results indicated that climatic conditions influenced functional anatomical traits more substantially than tree radial growth, suggesting a crucial role of functional xylem anatomy in plant acclimation to future climatic conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

PubMed Central

Caldeira, Maria C.; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Werner, Christiane

2015-01-01

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs. PMID:26461978

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates.

PubMed

Caldeira, Maria C; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S; Pinto, Joaquim G; Bugalho, Miguel N; Werner, Christiane

2015-10-13

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Maria C.; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Werner, Christiane

2015-10-01

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

FPGA-based smart sensor for drought stress detection in tomato plants using novel physiological variables and discrete wavelet transform.

PubMed

Duarte-Galvan, Carlos; Romero-Troncoso, Rene de J; Torres-Pacheco, Irineo; Guevara-Gonzalez, Ramon G; Fernandez-Jaramillo, Arturo A; Contreras-Medina, Luis M; Carrillo-Serrano, Roberto V; Millan-Almaraz, Jesus R

2014-10-09

Soil drought represents one of the most dangerous stresses for plants. It impacts the yield and quality of crops, and if it remains undetected for a long time, the entire crop could be lost. However, for some plants a certain amount of drought stress improves specific characteristics. In such cases, a device capable of detecting and quantifying the impact of drought stress in plants is desirable. This article focuses on testing if the monitoring of physiological process through a gas exchange methodology provides enough information to detect drought stress conditions in plants. The experiment consists of using a set of smart sensors based on Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) to monitor a group of plants under controlled drought conditions. The main objective was to use different digital signal processing techniques such as the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to explore the response of plant physiological processes to drought. Also, an index-based methodology was utilized to compensate the spatial variation inside the greenhouse. As a result, differences between treatments were determined to be independent of climate variations inside the greenhouse. Finally, after using the DWT as digital filter, results demonstrated that the proposed system is capable to reject high frequency noise and to detect drought conditions.

Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Ciais, Philippe; Babst, Flurin; Guo, Weichao; Zhang, Cicheng; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Pavelka, Marian; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Yongmei; Wang, Pei; Shi, Chunming; Ma, Yujun

2018-01-01

In view of future changes in climate, it is important to better understand how different plant functional groups (PFGs) respond to warmer and drier conditions, particularly in temperate regions where an increase in both the frequency and severity of drought is expected. The patterns and mechanisms of immediate and delayed impacts of extreme drought on vegetation growth remain poorly quantified. Using satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, in-situ tree-ring records, eddy-covariance CO 2 and water flux measurements, and meta-analyses of source water of plant use among PFGs, we show that drought legacy effects on vegetation growth differ markedly between forests, shrubs and grass across diverse bioclimatic conditions over the temperate Northern Hemisphere. Deep-rooted forests exhibit a drought legacy response with reduced growth during up to 4 years after an extreme drought, whereas shrubs and grass have drought legacy effects of approximately 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Statistical analyses partly attribute the differences in drought legacy effects among PFGs to plant eco-hydrological properties (related to traits), including plant water use and hydraulic responses. These results can be used to improve the representation of drought response of different PFGs in land surface models, and assess their biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks in response to a warmer and drier climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Entropy-Aided Evaluation of Meteorological Droughts Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Yan-Fang; Singh, Vijay P.; Hu, Zengyun; Xie, Ping; Li, Xinxin

2018-01-01

Evaluation of drought and its spatial distribution is essential to develop mitigation measures. In this study, we employed the entropy index to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts over China. Entropy values, with a reliable hydrological and geographical basis, are closely related to the months of precipitation deficit and its mean magnitude and can thus represent the physical formation of droughts. The value of entropy index can be roughly classified as <0.35, 0.36-0.90, and >0.90, reflecting high, middle, and low occurrence probabilities of droughts. The accumulated precipitation deficits, based on the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index at the 1, 3, 6, and 12 month scales, consistently increase with entropy decrease, no matter considering the moderately, severely, or extremely dry conditions. Therefore, Northwest China and North China, with smaller entropy values, have higher occurrence probability of droughts than South China, with a break at 38°N latitude. The aggravating droughts in North China and Southwest China over recent decades are represented by the increase in both the occurrence frequency and the magnitude. The entropy, determined by absolute magnitude of the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as its scatter and skewness characteristics, is easily calculated and can be an effective index for evaluating drought and its spatial distribution. We therefore identified dominant thresholds for entropy values and statistical characteristics of precipitation deficit, which would help evaluate the occurrence probability of droughts worldwide.

Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: a case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness

Treesearch

Sheel Bansal; Connie Harrington; Brad St. Clair

2016-01-01

1. Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. 2. We assessed the...

Population viability of Pediocactus brady (Cactaceae) in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Esque, Todd C.; Huges, Lee

2014-01-01

• Conclusions: Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events.

Ecophysiological comparison of 50-year-old longleaf pine, slash pine and loblolly pine.

Treesearch

Lisa Samuelson; Tom Stokes; Kurt Johnsen

2012-01-01

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.), a species that once dominated the southeastern USA, is considered to be more drought tolerant than the principle plantation species in the South, loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) and slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm.), and so is predicted to better cope with increases in drought frequency associated with climate change. To...

Drought Analysis of the Haihe River Basin Based on GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage

PubMed Central

Wang, Jianhua; Jiang, Dong; Huang, Yaohuan; Wang, Hao

2014-01-01

The Haihe river basin (HRB) in the North China has been experiencing prolonged, severe droughts in recent years that are accompanied by precipitation deficits and vegetation wilting. This paper analyzed the water deficits related to spatiotemporal variability of three variables of the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) data, precipitation, and EVI in the HRB from January 2003 to January 2013. The corresponding drought indices of TWS anomaly index (TWSI), precipitation anomaly index (PAI), and vegetation anomaly index (AVI) were also compared for drought analysis. Our observations showed that the GRACE-TWS was more suitable for detecting prolonged and severe droughts in the HRB because it can represent loss of deep soil water and ground water. The multiyear droughts, of which the HRB has sustained for more than 5 years, began in mid-2007. Extreme drought events were detected in four periods at the end of 2007, the end of 2009, the end of 2010, and in the middle of 2012. Spatial analysis of drought risk from the end of 2011 to the beginning of 2012 showed that human activities played an important role in the extent of drought hazards in the HRB. PMID:25202732

Drought analysis of the Haihe river basin based on GRACE terrestrial water storage.

PubMed

Wang, Jianhua; Jiang, Dong; Huang, Yaohuan; Wang, Hao

2014-01-01

The Haihe river basin (HRB) in the North China has been experiencing prolonged, severe droughts in recent years that are accompanied by precipitation deficits and vegetation wilting. This paper analyzed the water deficits related to spatiotemporal variability of three variables of the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) data, precipitation, and EVI in the HRB from January 2003 to January 2013. The corresponding drought indices of TWS anomaly index (TWSI), precipitation anomaly index (PAI), and vegetation anomaly index (AVI) were also compared for drought analysis. Our observations showed that the GRACE-TWS was more suitable for detecting prolonged and severe droughts in the HRB because it can represent loss of deep soil water and ground water. The multiyear droughts, of which the HRB has sustained for more than 5 years, began in mid-2007. Extreme drought events were detected in four periods at the end of 2007, the end of 2009, the end of 2010, and in the middle of 2012. Spatial analysis of drought risk from the end of 2011 to the beginning of 2012 showed that human activities played an important role in the extent of drought hazards in the HRB.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy; Peterson, David L.; Riley, Karin L.; Yongquiang Liu,; Luce, Charles H.

2016-01-01

The historical and pre-settlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate—including short- and long-term droughts—are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.

Application of effective drought index for quantification of meteorological drought events: a case study in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deo, Ravinesh C.; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Adamowski, Jan F.; Begum, Khaleda

2017-04-01

Drought indices (DIs) that quantify drought events by their onset, termination, and subsequent properties such as the severity, duration, and peak intensity are practical stratagems for monitoring and evaluating the impacts of drought. In this study, the effective drought index (EDI) calculated over daily timescales was utilized to quantify short-term (dry spells) and ongoing drought events using drought monitoring data in Australia. EDI was an intensive DI that considered daily water accumulation with a weighting function applied to daily rainfall data with the passage of time. A statistical analysis of the distribution of water deficit period relative to the base period was performed where a run-sum method was adopted to identify drought onset for any day ( i) with EDI i < 0 (rainfall below normal). Drought properties were enumerated in terms of (1) severity (AEDI ≡ accumulated sum of EDIi < 0), (2) duration (DS ≡ cumulative number of days with EDIi < 0), (3) peak intensity (EDImin ≡ minimum EDI of a drought event), (4) annual drought severity (YAEDI ≡ yearly accumulated negative EDI), and (5) accumulated severity of ongoing drought using event-accumulated EDI (EAEDI). The analysis of EDI signal enabled the detection and quantification of a number of drought events in Australia: Federation Drought (1897-1903), 1911-1916 Drought, 1925-1929 Drought, World War II Drought (1937-1945), and Millennium Drought (2002-2010). In comparison with the other droughts, Millennium Drought was exemplified as an unprecedented dry period especially in Victoria (EAEDI ≈ -4243, DS = 1946 days, EDImin = -4.05, and YAEDI = -4903). For the weather station tested in Northern Territory, the worst drought was recorded during 1925-1929 period. The results justified the suitability of effective drought index as a useful scientific tool for monitoring of drought progression, onset and termination, and ranking of drought based on severity, duration, and peak intensity, which allows an assessment of accumulated stress caused by short- and long-term (protracted) dry events.

Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: Why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDowell, Nate G.; Pockman, William T.; Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; Cobb, Neil; Kolb, Thomas; Plaut, Jennifer; Sperry, John; West, Adam; Williams, David G.; Yepez, Enrico A.

2008-01-01

Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced hydraulic failure via stomatal closure, resulting in carbon starvation and a cascade of downstream effects such as reduced resistance to biotic agents. Mortality by hydraulic failure per se may occur for isohydric seedlings or trees near their maximum height. Although anisohydric plants are relatively drought-tolerant, they are predisposed to hydraulic failure because they operate with narrower hydraulic safety margins during drought. Elevated temperatures should exacerbate carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Biotic agents may amplify and be amplified by drought-induced plant stress. Wet multidecadal climate oscillations may increase plant susceptibility to drought-induced mortality by stimulating shifts in hydraulic architecture, effectively predisposing plants to water stress. Climate warming and increased frequency of extreme events will probably cause increased regional mortality episodes. Isohydric and anisohydric water potential regulation may partition species between survival and mortality, and, as such, incorporating this hydraulic framework may be effective for modeling plant survival and mortality under future climate conditions.

Drought causes reduced growth of trembling aspen in western Canada.

PubMed

Chen, Lei; Huang, Jian-Guo; Alam, Syed Ashraful; Zhai, Lihong; Dawson, Andria; Stadt, Kenneth J; Comeau, Philip G

2017-07-01

Adequate and advance knowledge of the response of forest ecosystems to temperature-induced drought is critical for a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of global climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function. Recent massive decline in aspen-dominated forests and an increased aspen mortality in boreal forests have been associated with global warming, but it is still uncertain whether the decline and mortality are driven by drought. We used a series of ring-width chronologies from 40 trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) sites along a latitudinal gradient (from 52° to 58°N) in western Canada, in an attempt to clarify the impacts of drought on aspen growth by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results indicated that prolonged and large-scale droughts had a strong negative impact on trembling aspen growth. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variability of drought indices is useful for explaining the spatial heterogeneity in the radial growth of trembling aspen. Due to ongoing global warming and rising temperatures, it is likely that severer droughts with a higher frequency will occur in western Canada. As trembling aspen is sensitive to drought, we suggest that drought indices could be applied to monitor the potential effects of increased drought stress on aspen trees growth, achieve classification of eco-regions and develop effective mitigation strategies to maintain western Canadian boreal forests. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

PubMed

Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

2018-02-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns

PubMed Central

Fowler, Hayley J.; Kilsby, Christopher G.; Neal, Robert

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Weather‐pattern, or weather‐type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad‐scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather‐pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI‐based drought months. The new weather‐pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation‐based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra‐pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification‐based analyses in the UK. PMID:29456290

Assessment of drought during corn growing season in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Hu, Zhenghua

2018-04-01

Northeast China has experienced extensive climate change during the past decades. Corn is the primary production crop in China and is sensitive to meteorological disasters, especially drought. Drought has thus greatly endangered crop production and the country's food security. The majority of previous studies has not highlighted farming adaptation activities undertaken within the changed climate, which should not be neglected. In this study, we assessed drought hazard in the corn vegetation growing period, the reproductive growing period, and the whole growing period based on data for yearly corn phenology, daily precipitation, and temperature gathered at 26 agro-meteorological stations across Northeast China from 1981 to 2009. The M-K trend test was used to detect trends in sowing date and drought. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to describe drought. Drought frequency and intensity were used to assess the drought hazard in the region. We found that the sowing date was delayed in the southern part of the study area, coupled with a trend towards a shorter and more humid vegetation growing period. In the northern part of the study area, an earlier sowing date increased the length of the vegetation growing period and the reproductive growing period, while drying trends occurred within the two corn growing periods. We assessed the drought hazard during each growing period: the reproductive growing period faced a more severe drought hazard and was also the period where corn was most sensitive to water stress. Drought hazard during the total growing period was closely related to corn yield.

Sensitivity of Drought Processes to Runoff Parameterizations in East Asia with the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most powerful and extensive disasters and has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. Focusing on East Asia, where over one fifth of all the people in the world live, drought has impacted as well as been projected to impact the region significantly. .Therefore it is critical to reasonably simulate the drought phenomenon in the region and thus this study would focus on the reproducibility of drought with the NCAR CLM. In this study, we examine the propagation of drought processes with different runoff parameterization of CLM in East Asia. Two different schemes are used; TOPMODEL-based and VIC-based schemes, which differentiate the result of runoff through the surface and subsurface runoff parameterization. CLM with different runoff scheme are driven with two atmospheric forcings from CRU/NCEP and NCEP reanalysis data. Specifically, propagation of drought from meteorological, agricultural to hydrologic drought is investigated with different drought indices, estimated with not only model simulated results but also observational data. The indices include the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI). Based on these indices, the drought characteristics such as intensity, frequency and spatial extent are investigated. At last, such drought assessments would reveal the possible model deficiencies in East Asia. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180.

Three Millennia of Southwestern North American Dustiness and Future Implications

PubMed Central

Routson, Cody C.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Kenney, William F.

2016-01-01

Two sediment records of dust deposition from Fish Lake, in southern Colorado, offer a new perspective on southwest United States (Southwest) aridity and dustiness over the last ~3000 years. Micro scanning X-ray fluorescence and grain size analysis provide separate measures of wind-deposited dust in the lake sediment. Together these new records confirm anomalous dustiness in the 19th and 20th centuries, associated with recent land disturbance, drought, and livestock grazing. Before significant anthropogenic influences, changes in drought frequency and aridity also generated atmospheric dust loading. Medieval times were associated with high levels of dustiness, coincident with widespread aridity. These records indicate the Southwest is naturally prone to dustiness. As global and regional temperatures rise and the Southwest shifts toward a more arid landscape, the Southwest will likely become dustier, driving negative impacts on snowpack and water availability, as well as human health. PMID:26886350

Droughts, dry spells, low water levels and their environmental-social consequences in late medieval Hungary (and Croatia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Nikolic, Zrinka

2016-04-01

Based on medieval, contemporary evidence, in the presentation 14th-15th-century droughts, dry spells and documented low water-level events of large rivers (e.g. Danube, Tisza) and their detected environmental and social consequences are discussed in more detail, with special emphasis on the years of 1361-1364, 1393-1394, 1440, the early 1540s, 1474, 1479-1480 and 1494. The poster presentation is centred around the following topics: - magnitude, intensity and frequency of droughts and dry spells (in comparison with famous 18th-19th-century drought periods); - provide information (and a comparison) on Central European parallels; - other natural hazards combined with drought and dry spells (e.g. convective events); - the relationship of multiannual water-deficits and locust invasions, their intensity and documented further impacts; - the consequences of droughts, dry spells and low water levels on society, with special emphasis on food production (e.g. bad harvests, grazing permissions, high prices, threatening food shortage), transportation problems (esp. salt transportation), military defence (Ottoman Turkish attacks) and their further social effects (e.g. land-ownership debates; royal intervention and export prohibition).

Epidemiological Investigation of a Diarrhea Outbreak in the South Pacific Island Nation of Tuvalu During a Severe La Niña–Associated Drought Emergency in 2011

PubMed Central

Emont, Jordan P.; Ko, Albert I.; Homasi-Paelate, Avanoa; Ituaso-Conway, Nese; Nilles, Eric J.

2017-01-01

The association between heavy rainfall and an increased risk of diarrhea has been well established but less is known about the effect of drought on diarrhea transmission. In 2011, the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu experienced a concurrent severe La Niña–associated drought and large diarrhea outbreak. We conducted a field investigation in Tuvalu to identify factors that contributed to epidemic transmission in the context of a drought emergency. Peak case numbers coincided with the nadir of recorded monthly rainfall, the lowest recorded since 1930. Independent factors associated with increased risk of diarrhea were households with water tank levels below 20% (odds ratio [OR] = 2.31; 95% confidence interval = 1.16–4.60) and decreased handwashing frequency (OR = 3.00 [1.48–6.08]). The resolution of the outbreak occurred after implementation of a hygiene promotion campaign, despite persistent drought and limited water access. These findings are potentially important given projections that future climate change will cause more frequent and severe droughts. PMID:28138046

Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian.

PubMed

Hossack, Blake R; Adams, Michael J; Pearl, Christopher A; Wilson, Kristine W; Bull, Evelyn L; Lohr, Kristin; Patla, Debra; Pilliod, David S; Jones, Jason M; Wheeler, Kevin K; McKay, Samuel P; Corn, Paul Stephen

2013-12-01

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Comparative proteomic responses of two bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon (L). Pers.) varieties contrasting in drought stress resistance.

PubMed

Shi, Haitao; Ye, Tiantian; Chan, Zhulong

2014-09-01

Drought (water-deficit) stress is a serious environmental problem in plant growth and cultivation. As one of widely cultivated warm-season turfgrass, bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon (L). Pers.) exhibits drastic natural variation in the drought stress resistance in leaves and stems of different varieties. In this study, proteomic analysis was performed to identify drought-responsive proteins in both leaves and stems of two bermudagrass varieties contrasting in drought stress resistance, including drought sensitive variety (Yukon) and drought tolerant variety (Tifgreen). Through comparative proteomic analysis, 39 proteins with significantly changed abundance were identified, including 3 commonly increased and 2 decreased proteins by drought stress in leaves and stems of Yukon and Tifgreen varieties, 2 differentially regulated proteins in leaves and stems of two varieties after drought treatment, 23 proteins increased by drought stress in Yukon variety and constitutively expressed in Tifgreen variety, and other 3 differentially expressed proteins under control and drought stress conditions. Among them, proteins involved in photosynthesis (PS), glycolysis, N-metabolism, tricarboxylicacid (TCA) and redox pathways were largely enriched, which might be contributed to the natural variation of drought resistance between Yukon and Tifgreen varieties. These studies provide new insights to understand the molecular mechanism underlying bermudagrass response to drought stress. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall structure of the variance spectrum has important consequences for the probability of multi-year drought. Our lake record suggests there is a significant background threat of multi-year, and even decade-length, drought in western Amazonia, whereas climate model simulations indicate most droughts likely last no longer than one to three years. These findings suggest climate models may underestimate the future risk of extended drought in this important region. In Appendix C, we expand our analysis of climate variability beyond South America. We use observations, well-constrained tropical paleoclimate, and Earth system model data to examine the overall shape of the climate spectrum across interannual to century frequencies. We find a general agreement among observations and models that temperature variability increases with timescale across most of the globe outside the tropics. However, as compared to paleoclimate records, climate models generate too little low-frequency variability in the tropics (e.g., Laepple and Huybers, 2014). When we compare the shape of the simulated climate spectrum to the spectrum of a simple autoregressive process, we find much of the modeled surface temperature variability in the tropics could be explained by ocean smoothing of weather noise. Importantly, modeled precipitation tends to be similar to white noise across much of the globe. By contrast, paleoclimate records of various types from around the globe indicate that both temperature and precipitation variability should experience much more low-frequency variability than a simple autoregressive or white-noise process. In summary, state-of-the-art climate models generate some degree of dynamically driven low-frequency climate variability, especially at high latitudes. However, the latest climate models, observations, and paleoclimate data provide us with drastically different pictures of the background climate system and its associated risks. This research has important consequences for improving how we simulate climate extremes as we enter a warmer (and often drier) world in the coming centuries; if climate models underestimate low-frequency variability, we will underestimate the risk of future abrupt change and extreme events, such as megadroughts.

Results of Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) drought analysis (South Dakota drought 1976)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, D. R.

1976-01-01

LACIE using techniques developed from the southern Great Plains drought analysis indicated the potential for drought damage in South Dakota. This potential was monitored and as it became apparent that a drought was developing, LACIE implemented some of the procedures used in the southern Great Plains drought. The technical approach used in South Dakota involved the normal use of LACIE sample segments (5 x 6 nm) every 18 days. Full frame color transparencies (100 x 100 nm) were used on 9 day intervals to identify the drought area and to track overtime. The green index number (GIN) developed using the Kauth transformation was computed for all South Dakota segments and selected North Dakota segments. A scheme for classifying segments as drought affected or not affected was devised and tested on all available 1976 South Dakota data. Yield model simulations were run for all CRD's Crop Reporting District) in South Dakota.

Drought characteristics' role in widespread aspen forest mortality across Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Anderegg, Leander D L; Anderegg, William R L; Abatzoglou, John; Hausladen, Alexandra M; Berry, Joseph A

2013-05-01

Globally documented widespread drought-induced forest mortality has important ramifications for plant community structure, ecosystem function, and the ecosystem services provided by forests. Yet the characteristics of drought seasonality, severity, and duration that trigger mortality events have received little attention despite evidence of changing precipitation regimes, shifting snow melt timing, and increasing temperature stress. This study draws upon stand level ecohydrology and statewide climate and spatial analysis to examine the drought characteristics implicated in the recent widespread mortality of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.). We used isotopic observations of aspen xylem sap to determine water source use during natural and experimental drought in a region that experienced high tree mortality. We then drew upon multiple sources of climate data to characterize the drought that triggered aspen mortality. Finally, regression analysis was used to examine the drought characteristics most associated with the spatial patterns of aspen mortality across Colorado. Isotopic analysis indicated that aspens generally utilize shallow soil moisture with little plasticity during drought stress. Climate analysis showed that the mortality-inciting drought was unprecedented in the observational record, especially in 2002 growing season temperature and evaporative deficit, resulting in record low shallow soil moisture reserves. High 2002 summer temperature and low shallow soil moisture were most associated with the spatial patterns of aspen mortality. These results suggest that the 2002 drought subjected Colorado aspens to the most extreme growing season water stress of the past century by creating high atmospheric moisture demand and depleting the shallow soil moisture upon which aspens rely. Our findings highlight the important role of drought characteristics in mediating widespread aspen forest mortality, link this aspen die-off to regional climate change trends, and provide insight into future climate vulnerability of these forests. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Identification of drought-responsive genes in a drought-tolerant cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) cultivar under reduced irrigation field conditions and development of candidate gene markers for drought tolerance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cotton productivity is affected by water deficit, and little is known about the molecular basis of drought tolerance in cotton. In this study, microarray analysis was conducted to identify drought-responsive genes in the third topmost leaves of the field-grown drought-tolerant cotton (Gossypium hirs...

Linkages and Interactions Analysis of Major Effect Drought Grain Yield QTLs in Rice.

PubMed

Vikram, Prashant; Swamy, B P Mallikarjuna; Dixit, Shalabh; Trinidad, Jennylyn; Sta Cruz, Ma Teresa; Maturan, Paul C; Amante, Modesto; Kumar, Arvind

2016-01-01

Quantitative trait loci conferring high grain yield under drought in rice are important genomic resources for climate resilient breeding. Major and consistent drought grain yield QTLs usually co-locate with flowering and/or plant height QTLs, which could be due to either linkage or pleiotropy. Five mapping populations used for the identification of major and consistent drought grain yield QTLs underwent multiple-trait, multiple-interval mapping test (MT-MIM) to estimate the significance of pleiotropy effects. Results indicated towards possible linkages between the drought grain yield QTLs with co-locating flowering and/or plant height QTLs. Linkages of days to flowering and plant height were eliminated through a marker-assisted breeding approach. Drought grain yield QTLs also showed interaction effects with flowering QTLs. Drought responsiveness of the flowering locus on chromosome 3 (qDTY3.2) has been revealed through allelic analysis. Considering linkage and interaction effects associated with drought QTLs, a comprehensive marker-assisted breeding strategy was followed to develop rice genotypes with improved grain yield under drought stress.

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funk, Chris; Peterson, Pete; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Husak, Gregory; Landsfeld, Marty; Hoell, Andrew; Pedreros, Diego; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Tadesse, Tsegae;

A five-year analysis of MODIS NDVI and NDWI for grassland drought assessment over the central Great Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Verdin, J.P.; Wardlow, B.

2007-01-01

A five-year (2001–2005) history of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) data was analyzed for grassland drought assessment within the central United States, specifically for the Flint Hills of Kansas and Oklahoma. Initial results show strong relationships among NDVI, NDWI, and drought conditions. During the summer over the Tallgrass Prairie National Preserve, the average NDVI and NDWI were consistently lower (NDVI < 0.5 and NDWI < 0.3) under drought conditions than under non-drought conditions (NDVI>0.6 and NDWI>0.4). NDWI values exhibited a quicker response to drought conditions than NDVI. Analysis revealed that combining information from visible, near infrared, and short wave infrared channels improved sensitivity to drought severity. The proposed normalized difference drought index (NDDI) had a stronger response to summer drought conditions than a simple difference between NDVI and NDWI, and is therefore a more sensitive indicator of drought in grasslands than NDVI alone.

Global analysis of plasticity in turgor loss point, a key drought tolerance trait.

PubMed

Bartlett, Megan K; Zhang, Ya; Kreidler, Nissa; Sun, Shanwen; Ardy, Rico; Cao, Kunfang; Sack, Lawren

2014-12-01

Many species face increasing drought under climate change. Plasticity has been predicted to strongly influence species' drought responses, but broad patterns in plasticity have not been examined for key drought tolerance traits, including turgor loss or 'wilting' point (πtlp ). As soil dries, plants shift πtlp by accumulating solutes (i.e. 'osmotic adjustment'). We conducted the first global analysis of plasticity in Δπtlp and related traits for 283 wild and crop species in ecosystems worldwide. Δπtlp was widely prevalent but moderate (-0.44 MPa), accounting for 16% of post-drought πtlp. Thus, pre-drought πtlp was a considerably stronger predictor of post-drought πtlp across species of wild plants. For cultivars of certain crops Δπtlp accounted for major differences in post-drought πtlp. Climate was correlated with pre- and post-drought πtlp, but not Δπtlp. Thus, despite the wide prevalence of plasticity, πtlp measured in one season can reliably characterise most species' constitutive drought tolerances and distributions relative to water supply. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Quantitative analysis of proteome extracted from barley crowns grown under different drought conditions

PubMed Central

Vítámvás, Pavel; Urban, Milan O.; Škodáček, Zbynek; Kosová, Klára; Pitelková, Iva; Vítámvás, Jan; Renaut, Jenny; Prášil, Ilja T.

2015-01-01

Barley cultivar Amulet was used to study the quantitative proteome changes through different drought conditions utilizing two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE). Plants were cultivated for 10 days under different drought conditions. To obtain control and differentially drought-treated plants, the soil water content was kept at 65, 35, and 30% of soil water capacity (SWC), respectively. Osmotic potential, water saturation deficit, 13C discrimination, and dehydrin accumulation were monitored during sampling of the crowns for proteome analysis. Analysis of the 2D-DIGE gels revealed 105 differentially abundant spots; most were differentially abundant between the controls and drought-treated plants, and 25 spots displayed changes between both drought conditions. Seventy-six protein spots were successfully identified by tandem mass spectrometry. The most frequent functional categories of the identified proteins can be put into the groups of: stress-associated proteins, amino acid metabolism, carbohydrate metabolism, as well as DNA and RNA regulation and processing. Their possible role in the response of barley to drought stress is discussed. Our study has shown that under drought conditions barley cv. Amulet decreased its growth and developmental rates, displayed a shift from aerobic to anaerobic metabolism, and exhibited increased levels of several protective proteins. Comparison of the two drought treatments revealed plant acclimation to milder drought (35% SWC); but plant damage under more severe drought treatment (30% SWC). The results obtained revealed that cv. Amulet is sensitive to drought stress. Additionally, four spots revealing a continuous and significant increase with decreasing SWC (UDP-glucose 6-dehydrogenase, glutathione peroxidase, and two non-identified) could be good candidates for testing of their protein phenotyping capacity together with proteins that were significantly distinguished in both drought treatments. PMID:26175745

Genome-wide analysis of drought induced gene expression changes in flax (Linum usitatissimum).

PubMed

Dash, Prasanta K; Cao, Yongguo; Jailani, Abdul K; Gupta, Payal; Venglat, Prakash; Xiang, Daoquan; Rai, Rhitu; Sharma, Rinku; Thirunavukkarasu, Nepolean; Abdin, Malik Z; Yadava, Devendra K; Singh, Nagendra K; Singh, Jas; Selvaraj, Gopalan; Deyholos, Mike; Kumar, Polumetla Ananda; Datla, Raju

2014-01-01

A robust phenotypic plasticity to ward off adverse environmental conditions determines performance and productivity in crop plants. Flax (linseed), is an important cash crop produced for natural textile fiber (linen) or oilseed with many health promoting products. This crop is prone to drought stress and yield losses in many parts of the world. Despite recent advances in drought research in a number of important crops, related progress in flax is very limited. Since, response of this plant to drought stress has not been addressed at the molecular level; we conducted microarray analysis to capture transcriptome associated with induced drought in flax. This study identified 183 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) associated with diverse cellular, biophysical and metabolic programs in flax. The analysis also revealed especially the altered regulation of cellular and metabolic pathways governing photosynthesis. Additionally, comparative transcriptome analysis identified a plethora of genes that displayed differential regulation both spatially and temporally. These results revealed co-regulated expression of 26 genes in both shoot and root tissues with implications for drought stress response. Furthermore, the data also showed that more genes are upregulated in roots compared to shoots, suggesting that roots may play important and additional roles in response to drought in flax. With prolonged drought treatment, the number of DEGs increased in both tissue types. Differential expression of selected genes was confirmed by qRT-PCR, thus supporting the suggested functional association of these intrinsic genes in maintaining growth and homeostasis in response to imminent drought stress in flax. Together the present study has developed foundational and new transcriptome data sets for drought stress in flax.

Effects of Spring Drought on Carbon Sequestration, Evapotranspiration and Water Use Efficiency in the Songnen Meadow Steppe in Northeast China.

Treesearch

Gang Dong; Jixun Guo; Jiquan Chen; Ge Sun; Song Gao; et al

2011-01-01

Global climate change projections suggest an increasing frequency of droughts and extreme rain events in the steppes of the Eurasian region. Using the eddy covariance method, we measured carbon and water balances of a meadow steppe ecosystem in Northeast China during 2 years which had contrasting precipitation patterns in spring seasons in 2007 and 2008. The meadow...

Application of Archimedean copulas to the analysis of drought decadal variation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Dongdong; Feng, Guolin; Zhang, Zengping; Hou, Wei

2017-12-01

Based on daily precipitation data collected from 1171 stations in China during 1961-2015, the monthly standardized precipitation index was derived and used to extract two major drought characteristics which are drought duration and severity. Next, a bivariate joint model was established based on the marginal distributions of the two variables and Archimedean copula functions. The joint probability and return period were calculated to analyze the drought characteristics and decadal variation. According to the fit analysis, the Gumbel-Hougaard copula provided the best fit to the observed data. Based on four drought duration classifications and four severity classifications, the drought events were divided into 16 drought types according to the different combinations of duration and severity classifications, and the probability and return period were analyzed for different drought types. The results showed that the occurring probability of six common drought types (0 < D ≤ 1 and 0.5 < S ≤ 1, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 0.5 < S ≤ 1, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 1 < S ≤ 1.5, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 1.5 < S ≤ 2, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 2 < S, and 3 < D ≤ 6 and 2 < S) accounted for 76% of the total probability of all types. Moreover, due to their greater variation, two drought types were particularly notable, i.e., the drought types where D ≥ 6 and S ≥ 2. Analyzing the joint probability in different decades indicated that the location of the drought center had a distinctive stage feature, which cycled from north to northeast to southwest during 1961-2015. However, southwest, north, and northeast China had a higher drought risk. In addition, the drought situation in southwest China should be noted because the joint probability values, return period, and the analysis of trends in the drought duration and severity all indicated a considerable risk in recent years.

A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masih, I.; Maskey, S.; Mussá, F. E. F.; Trambauer, P.

2014-09-01

This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available literature and information on droughts to build a continental, regional and country level perspective on geospatial and temporal variation of droughts in Africa. The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900-2013, as well as evidence available from past centuries based on studies on the lake sediment analysis, tree-ring chronologies and written and oral histories and future predictions from the global climate change models. Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 years. The extreme droughts of 1972-1973, 1983-1984 and 1991-1992 were continental in nature and stand unique in the available records. Additionally, many severe and prolonged droughts were recorded in the recent past such as the 1999-2002 drought in northwest Africa, 1970s and 1980s droughts in western Africa (Sahel), 2010-2011 drought in eastern Africa (Horn of Africa) and 2001-2003 drought in southern and southeastern Africa, to name a few. The available (though limited) evidence before the 20th century confirms the occurrence of several extreme and multi-year droughts during each century, with the most prolonged and intense droughts that occurred in Sahel and equatorial eastern Africa. The complex and highly variant nature of many physical mechanisms such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature (SST) and land-atmosphere feedback adds to the daunting challenge of drought monitoring and forecasting. The future predictions of droughts based on global climate models indicate increased droughts and aridity at the continental scale but large differences exist due to model limitations and complexity of the processes especially for Sahel and northern Africa. However, the available evidence from the past clearly shows that the African continent is likely to face extreme and widespread droughts in future. This evident challenge is likely to aggravate due to slow progress in drought risk management, increased population and demand for water and degradation of land and environment. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated efforts in drought mitigation to reduce the negative impacts of droughts anticipated in the future.

A review of droughts in the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masih, I.; Maskey, S.; Mussá, F. E. F.; Trambauer, P.

2014-03-01

This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available literature and information on droughts to build a continental, regional and country level perspective on geospatial and temporal variation of droughts in Africa. The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900-2013 as well as evidence available from past centuries based on studies on the lake sediment analysis, tree-ring chronologies and written and oral histories and future predictions from the global climate change models. Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 yr. The extreme droughts of 1972-1973, 1983-1984 and 1991-1992 were continental in nature and stand unique in the available records. Additionally, many severe and prolonged droughts were recorded in the recent past such as the 1999-2002 drought in Northwest Africa, 1970s and 1980s droughts in West Africa (Sahel), 2010-2011 drought in East Africa (Horn of Africa) and 2001-2003 drought in Southern and Southeast Africa, to name a few. The available (though limited) evidence before the 20th century confirms the occurrence of several extreme and multi-year droughts during each century, with the most prolonged and intense droughts that occurred in Sahel and Equatorial East Africa regions. Complex and highly variant nature of many physical mechanisms such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and land-atmosphere feedback adds to the daunting challenge of drought monitoring and forecasting. The future predictions of droughts based on global climate models indicate increased droughts and aridity at the continental scale but large differences exist due to model limitations and complexity of the processes especially for Sahel and North Africa regions. However, the available evidence from the past clearly shows that the African continent is likely to face extreme and widespread droughts in future. This evident challenge is likely to aggravate due to slow progress in drought risk management, increased population and demand for water and degradation of land and environment. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated efforts in drought mitigation to reduce the negative impacts of droughts anticipated in future.

Transcriptome analysis of lentil (Lens culinaris Medikus) in response to seedling drought stress.

PubMed

Singh, Dharmendra; Singh, Chandan Kumar; Taunk, Jyoti; Tomar, Ram Sewak Singh; Chaturvedi, Ashish Kumar; Gaikwad, Kishor; Pal, Madan

2017-02-27

Drought stress is one of the most harmful abiotic stresses in crop plants. As a moderately drought tolerant crop, lentil is a major crop in rainfed areas and a suitable candidate for drought stress tolerance research work. Screening for drought tolerance stress under hydroponic conditions at seedling stage with air exposure is an efficient technique to select genotypes with contrasting traits. Transcriptome analysis provides valuable resources, especially for lentil, as here the information on complete genome sequence is not available. Hence, the present studies were carried out. This study was undertaken to understand the biochemical mechanisms and transcriptome changes involved in imparting adaptation to drought stress at seedling stage in drought-tolerant (PDL-2) and drought-sensitive (JL-3) cultivars. Among different physiological and biochemical parameters, a significant increase was recorded in proline, glycine betaine contents and activities of SOD, APX and GPX in PDL-2 compared to JL-3while chlorophyll, RWC and catalase activity decreased significantly in JL-3. Transcriptome changes between the PDL-2 and JL-3 under drought stress were evaluated using Illumina HiSeq 2500 platform. Total number of bases ranged from 5.1 to 6.7 Gb. Sequence analysis of control and drought treated cDNA libraries of PDL-2 and JL-3 produced 74032, 75500, 78328 and 81523 contigs, respectively with respective N50 value of 2011, 2008, 2000 and 1991. Differential gene expression of drought treated genotypes along with their controls revealed a total of 11,435 upregulated and 6,934 downregulated transcripts. For functional classification of DEGs, KEGG pathway annotation analysis extracted a total of 413 GO annotation terms where 176 were within molecular process, 128 in cellular and 109 in biological process groups. The transcriptional profiles provide a foundation for deciphering the underlying mechanism for drought tolerance in lentil. Transcriptional regulation, signal transduction and secondary metabolism in two genotypes revealed significant differences at seedling stage under severe drought. Our finding suggests role of candidate genes for improving drought tolerance in lentil.

High land-use intensity exacerbates shifts in grassland vegetation composition after severe experimental drought.

PubMed

Stampfli, Andreas; Bloor, Juliette M G; Fischer, Markus; Zeiter, Michaela

2018-05-01

Climate change projections anticipate increased frequency and intensity of drought stress, but grassland responses to severe droughts and their potential to recover are poorly understood. In many grasslands, high land-use intensity has enhanced productivity and promoted resource-acquisitive species at the expense of resource-conservative ones. Such changes in plant functional composition could affect the resistance to drought and the recovery after drought of grassland ecosystems with consequences for feed productivity resilience and environmental stewardship. In a 12-site precipitation exclusion experiment in upland grassland ecosystems across Switzerland, we imposed severe edaphic drought in plots under rainout shelters and compared them with plots under ambient conditions. We used soil water potentials to scale drought stress across sites. Impacts of precipitation exclusion and drought legacy effects were examined along a gradient of land-use intensity to determine how grasslands resisted to, and recovered after drought. In the year of precipitation exclusion, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in plots under rainout shelters was -15% to -56% lower than in control plots. Drought effects on ANPP increased with drought severity, specified as duration of topsoil water potential ψ < -100 kPa, irrespective of land-use intensity. In the year after drought, ANPP had completely recovered, but total species diversity had declined by -10%. Perennial species showed elevated mortality, but species richness of annuals showed a small increase due to enhanced recruitment. In general, the more resource-acquisitive grasses increased at the expense of the deeper-rooted forbs after drought, suggesting that community reorganization was driven by competition rather than plant mortality. The negative effects of precipitation exclusion on forbs increased with land-use intensity. Our study suggests a synergistic impact of land-use intensification and climate change on grassland vegetation composition, and implies that biomass recovery after drought may occur at the expense of biodiversity maintenance. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Vimal; Shah, Reepal; Azhar, Syed; Shah, Harsh; Modi, Parth; Kumar, Rohini

2018-04-01

India has witnessed some of the most severe historical droughts in the current decade, and severity, frequency, and areal extent of droughts have been increasing. As a large part of the population of India is dependent on agriculture, soil moisture drought affecting agricultural activities (crop yields) has significant impacts on socio-economic conditions. Due to limited observations, soil moisture is generally simulated using land-surface hydrological models (LSMs); however, these LSM outputs have uncertainty due to many factors, including errors in forcing data and model parameterization. Here we reconstruct agricultural drought events over India during the period of 1951-2015 based on simulated soil moisture from three LSMs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), the Noah, and the Community Land Model (CLM). Based on simulations from the three LSMs, we find that major drought events occurred in 1987, 2002, and 2015 during the monsoon season (June through September). During the Rabi season (November through February), major soil moisture droughts occurred in 1966, 1973, 2001, and 2003. Soil moisture droughts estimated from the three LSMs are comparable in terms of their spatial coverage; however, differences are found in drought severity. Moreover, we find a higher uncertainty in simulated drought characteristics over a large part of India during the major crop-growing season (Rabi season, November to February: NDJF) compared to those of the monsoon season (June to September: JJAS). Furthermore, uncertainty in drought estimates is higher for severe and localized droughts. Higher uncertainty in the soil moisture droughts is largely due to the difference in model parameterizations (especially soil depth), resulting in different persistence of soil moisture simulated by the three LSMs. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for the LSMs' uncertainty and consideration of the multi-model ensemble system for the real-time monitoring and prediction of drought over India.

Spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the tropical Paraiba do Sul River Basin and responses to the Mega Drought in 2014-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauditt, Alexandra; Metzke, Daniel; Ribbe, Lars

2017-04-01

The Paraiba do Sul River Basin (56.000 km2) supplies water to the Brazilian states Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Their large metropolitan areas were strongly affected by a Mega drought during the years 2014 and 2015 with severe implications for domestic water supply, the hydropower sector as well as for rural agricultural downstream regions. Longer drought periods are expected to become more frequent in the future. However, drought characteristics, low flow hydrology and the reasons for the recurrent water scarcity in this water abundant tropical region are still poorly understood. In order to separate the impact of human abstractions from hydro-climatic and catchment storage related hydrological drought propagation, we assessed the spatio-temporal distribution of drought severity and duration establishing relationships between SPI, SRI and discharge threshold drought anomalies for all subcatchments of the PdS based on a comprehensive hydro-meteorological data set of the Brazilian National Water Agency ANA. The water allocation model "Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP)" was established on a monthly basis for the entire Paraiba do Sul river basin incorporating human modifications of the hydrological system as major (hydropower) reservoirs and their operational rules, water diversions and major abstractions. It simulates reasonable discharges and reservoir levels comparable to the observed values. To evaluate the role of climate variability and drought responses for hydrological drought events, scenarios were developed to simulate discharge and reservoir level the impact of 1. Varying meteorological drought frequencies and durations and 2. Implementing operational rules as a response to drought. Uncertainties related to the drought assessment, modelling, parameter and input data were assessed. The outcome of this study for the first time provides an overview on the heterogeneous spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the Paraiba do Sul river basin and useful tools to support decision making and stakeholders as the River Basin Authority AGEVAP (Water Management Agency for the Paraiba do Sul).

The Value of Information from a GRACE-Enhanced Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwayama, Y.; Bernknopf, R.; Macauley, M.; Brookshire, D.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Rodell, M.

2013-12-01

Water storage anomalies derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Data Assimilation System (GRACE-DAS) have been used to enhance the information contained in drought indicators. The potential value of this information is to inform local and regional decisions to improve economic welfare in the face of drought. Based on a characterization of current drought evaluations, a modeling framework has been structured to analyze the contributed value of the Earth observations in the assessment of the onset and duration of droughts and their regional impacts. The analysis focuses on (1) characterizing how GRACE-DAS provides Earth observation information for a drought warning, (2) assessing how a GRACE-DAS-enhanced U.S. Drought Monitor would improve economic outcomes in a region, and (3) applying this enhancement process in a decision framework to illustrate the potential role of GRACE data products in a recent drought and response scenario for a value-of-information (VOI) analysis. The VOI analysis quantifies the relative contribution of enhanced understanding and communication of the societal benefits associated with GRACE Earth observation science. Our emphasis is to illustrate the role of an enhanced National Integrated Drought Information System outlook on three key societal outcomes: effects on particular economic sectors, changes in land management decisions, and reductions in damages to ecosystem services.

Transcriptome Analysis of Two Species of Jute in Response to Polyethylene Glycol (PEG)- induced Drought Stress.

PubMed

Yang, Zemao; Dai, Zhigang; Lu, Ruike; Wu, Bibo; Tang, Qing; Xu, Ying; Cheng, Chaohua; Su, Jianguang

2017-11-29

Drought stress results in significant crop yield losses. Comparative transcriptome analysis between tolerant and sensitive species can provide insights into drought tolerance mechanisms in jute. We present a comprehensive study on drought tolerance in two jute species-a drought tolerant species (Corchorus olitorius L., GF) and a drought sensitive species (Corchorus capsularis L., YY). In total, 45,831 non-redundant unigenes with average sequence length of 1421 bp were identified. Higher numbers of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were discovered in YY (794) than in GF (39), implying that YY was relatively more vulnerable or hyper-responsive to drought stress at the molecular level; the two main pathways, phenylpropanoid biosynthesis and peroxisome pathway, significantly involved in scavenging of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and 14 unigenes in the two pathways presented a significant differential expression in response to increase of superoxide. Our classification analysis showed that 1769 transcription factors can be grouped into 81 families and 948 protein kinases (PKs) into 122 families. In YY, we identified 34 TF DEGs from and 23 PK DEGs, including 19 receptor-like kinases (RLKs). Most of these RLKs were downregulated during drought stress, implying their role as negative regulators of the drought tolerance mechanism in jute.

Comprehensive Analysis of Drought Persistence, Hazard, and Recovery across the CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Ahmadi, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2017-12-01

Drought is a creeping intertwined natural hazard affecting society more than any other natural disaster and causing enormous damages on economy and ecosystems. Better understanding of potential drought hazard can help water managers and stakeholders devising mitigation plans to minimize the adverse effects of droughts. In this study, soil moisture, simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, is used to analyze the probability of agricultural drought with different severities across the CONUS. Due to the persistence of soil moisture, a drought episode at a particular time is affected by its earlier status; therefore, this study has utilized a Copula function to model the selected hydrologic variable over the time. The probability of drought intensity for each unit is presented spatially. If the unit remains in the drought condition at the same or lower intensity, drought persists and if it improves above a pre-defined threshold, the unit recovers. Results show that the west of US is more vulnerable to drought persistence in summer and spring while the Midwest and Northeast of US are experiencing drought persistence in fall and winter. In addition, the analysis reveals that as the intensity of drought in a given season decreases the following season has higher chance of recovery.

Building Gateway Tools for Informed Decision Making: The Drought Risk Atlas and U.S. Drought Monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoboda, M.; Fuchs, B.; Poulsen, C.; Nothwehr, J.; Owen, S.

2014-12-01

The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (http://drought.gov;) and other partners with a goal of developing tools to enhance drought risk management activities in the U.S. and around the world. The NDMC is a national center founded in 1995 and located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The NDMC conducts basic and applied research, provides a variety of services and produces decision support applications. In addition, the NDMC is involved heavily in education, outreach and planning activities and maintains a number of operational drought-related tools and products including the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and the Drought Risk Atlas (DRA). The NDMC's recently launched Drought Risk Atlas (DRA) (http://droughtatlas.unl.edu) and the continually evolving U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu;) will be the focus of this presentation. The DRA was launched in 2014 in order to help better answer the common questions of "How does this drought compare to the Dust Bowl years or some other regional drought of record?", or "How often do we see a drought as severe as this?", and "Are we seeing trends in drought frequency?". Access to new digital data sources, geospatial tools and analyses, and dissemination through a web-based interface has allowed us to triple the original National Drought Atlas station sample size and roughly double the period of record in standing up the new DRA. Building off of feedback from the user community, the SPI, SPEI, PDSI, self-calibrated PDSI, Deciles and other climatology (to also include hydrology) products are included. It is anticipated that this tool will heighten awareness and enhance decision support activities with regards to drought risk for policy makers, resource managers, producers, planners, media and the public. Examples of the DRA's data, maps and visualization tools built into the freely accessible web interface will be discussed. In addition, a brief history of the USDM will also be given as an overview to the process along with a look back at its growth and applications to date, including other regions of the globe.

The influence of drought on flow‐ecology relationships in Ozark Highland streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Dustin T.; Leasure, D. R.; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Drought and summer drying can have strong effects on abiotic and biotic components of stream ecosystems. Environmental flow‐ecology relationships may be affected by drought and drying, adding further uncertainty to the already complex interaction of flow with other environmental variables, including geomorphology and water quality.Environment–ecology relationships in stream communities in Ozark Highland streams, USA, were examined over two years with contrasting environmental conditions, a drought year (2012) and a flood year (2013). We analysed fish, crayfish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages using two different approaches: (1) a multiple regression analysis incorporating predictor variables related to habitat, water quality, geomorphology and hydrology and (2) a canonical ordination procedure using only hydrologic variables in which forward selection was used to select predictors that were most related to our response variables.Reach‐scale habitat quality and geomorphology were found to be the most important influences on community structure, but hydrology was also important, particularly during the flood year. We also found substantial between‐year variation in environment–ecology relationships. Some ecological responses differed significantly between drought and flood years, while others remained consistent. We found that magnitude was the most important flow component overall, but that there was a shift in relative importance from low flow metrics during the drought year to average flow metrics during the flood year, and the specific metrics of importance varied markedly between assemblages and years.Findings suggest that understanding temporal variation in flow‐ecology relationships may be crucial for resource planning. While some relationships show temporal variation, others are consistent between years. Additionally, different kinds of hydrologic variables can differ greatly in terms of which assemblages they affect and how they affect them. Managers can address this complexity by focusing on relationships that are temporally stable and flow metrics that are consistently important across groups, such as flood frequency and flow variability.

Remote sensing of drought and salinity stressed turfgrass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikemura, Yoshiaki

The ability to detect early signs of stress in turfgrass stands using a rapid, inexpensive, and nondestructive method would be a valuable management tool. Studies were conducted to determine if digital image analysis and spectroradiometric readings obtained from drought- and salinity-stressed turfgrasses accurately reflected the varying degrees of stress and correlated strongly with visual ratings, relative water content (RWC) and leaf osmolality, standard methods for measuring stress in plants. Greenhouse drought and salinity experiments were conducted on hybrid bluegrass [Poa arachnifera (Torn.) x pratensis (L.)] cv. Reveille and bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.)] cv. Princess 77. Increasing drought and salinity stress led to decreased RWC, increased leaf osmolality, and decreased visual ratings for both species. Percent green cover and hue values obtained from digital image analysis, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), calculated from spectroradiometric readings, were moderately to highly correlated with visual ratings, RWC, and leaf osmolality. Similarly, in a field validation study conducted on hybrid bluegrass, spectral reflectance ratios were moderately to highly correlated with visual ratings. In addition, percent green cover obtained from digital image analysis was strongly correlated with most of the spectral ratios, particularly the ratio of fluorescence peaks (r = -0.88 to -0.99), modified triangular vegetation index (MTVI) (r = 0.82 to 0.98), and NDVI (r = 0.84 to 0.99), suggesting that spectral reflectance and digital image analysis are equally effective at detecting changes in color brought on by stress. The two methods differed in their ability to distinguish between drought salinity stress. Hue values obtained from digital image analysis responded differently to increasing drought stress than to increasing salinity stress. Whereas the onset of drought stress was reflected by increased hue values followed by a decrease in values as drought stress increased, there was no increase in hue values at the onset of salinity stress. Thus, changes in hue could be a key to distinguish drought and salinity stress. Both digital image analysis and spectroradiometry effectively detected drought and salinity stress and may have applications in turfgrass management as rapid and quantitative methods to determine drought and salinity stress in turf.

Physiological and Comparative Proteomic Analysis Reveals Different Drought Responses in Roots and Leaves of Drought-Tolerant Wild Wheat (Triticum boeoticum)

PubMed Central

Liu, Hui; Sultan, Muhammad Abdul Rab Faisal; Liu, Xiang li; Zhang, Jin; Yu, Fei; Zhao, Hui xian

2015-01-01

To determine the proteomic-level responses of drought tolerant wild wheat (Triticum boeoticum), physiological and comparative proteomic analyses were conducted using the roots and the leaves of control and short term drought-stressed plants. Drought stress was imposed by transferring hydroponically grown seedlings at the 3-leaf stage into 1/2 Hoagland solution containing 20% PEG-6000 for 48 h. Root and leaf samples were separately collected at 0 (control), 24, and 48 h of drought treatment for analysis. Physiological analysis indicated that abscisic acid (ABA) level was greatly increased in the drought-treated plants, but the increase was greater and more rapid in the leaves than in the roots. The net photosynthetic rate of the wild wheat leaves was significantly decreased under short-term drought stress. The deleterious effects of drought on the studied traits mainly targeted photosynthesis. Comparative proteomic analysis identified 98 and 85 differently changed protein spots (DEPs) (corresponding to 87 and 80 unique proteins, respectively) in the leaves and the roots, respectively, with only 6 mutual unique proteins in the both organs. An impressive 86% of the DEPs were implicated in detoxification and defense, carbon metabolism, amino acid and nitrogen metabolism, proteins metabolism, chaperones, transcription and translation, photosynthesis, nucleotide metabolism, and signal transduction. Further analysis revealed some mutual and tissue-specific responses to short-term drought in the leaves and the roots. The differences of drought-response between the roots and the leaves mainly included that signal sensing and transduction-associated proteins were greatly up-regulated in the roots. Photosynthesis and carbon fixation ability were decreased in the leaves. Glycolysis was down-regulated but PPP pathway enhanced in the roots, resulting in occurrence of complex changes in energy metabolism and establishment of a new homeostasis. Protein metabolism was down-regulated in the roots, but enhanced in the leaves. These results will contribute to the existing knowledge on the complexity of root and leaf protein changes that occur in response to drought, and also provide a framework for further functional studies on the identified proteins. PMID:25859656

Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Wei; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Dong; Li, Tian-xiao; Cheng, Kun; Cui, Song

2017-06-01

Droughts are natural disasters that pose significant threats to agricultural production as well as living conditions, and a spatial-temporal difference analysis of agricultural drought risk can help determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the drought risk within a region. Moreover, this type of analysis can provide a theoretical basis for the identification, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. In this study, the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points were based on research by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans on Computer 23:881-890, 1974). In this work, high-dimensional samples were clustered by cluster analysis. The clustering results were represented by the clustering matrix, which determined the local density in the projection index. This method avoids the problem of determining a cutoff radius. An improved projection pursuit model is proposed that combines cluster analysis and the projection pursuit model, which offer advantages for classification and assessment, respectively. The improved model was applied to analyze the agricultural drought risk of 13 cities in Heilongjiang Province over 6 years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014). The risk of an agricultural drought disaster was characterized by 14 indicators and the following four aspects: hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and resistance capacity. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The spatial distribution results indicated that Suihua, Qigihar, Daqing, Harbin, and Jiamusi are located in high-risk areas, Daxing'anling and Yichun are located in low-risk areas, and the differences among the regions were primarily caused by the aspects exposure and resistance capacity. The temporal variation results indicated that the risk of agricultural drought in most areas presented an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. A higher value for the exposure aspect increased the risk of drought, whereas a higher value for the resistance capacity aspect reduced the risk of drought. Over the long term, the exposure level of the region presented limited increases, whereas the resistance capacity presented considerable increases. Therefore, the risk of agricultural drought in Heilongjiang Province will continue to exhibit a decreasing trend.

Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10–1900

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhibin; Tian, Huidong; Cazelles, Bernard; Kausrud, Kyrre L.; Bräuning, Achim; Guo, Fang; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2010-01-01

Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have, however, often not been quantitatively assessed. Here, using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10–1900, we demonstrate that war frequency, price of rice, locust plague, drought frequency, flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies, and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods, resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China. PMID:20630883

Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10-1900.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhibin; Tian, Huidong; Cazelles, Bernard; Kausrud, Kyrre L; Bräuning, Achim; Guo, Fang; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2010-12-22

Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have, however, often not been quantitatively assessed. Here, using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10-1900, we demonstrate that war frequency, price of rice, locust plague, drought frequency, flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies, and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods, resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China.

Statistical trends of some meteorological drought indices in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Roper, Aaron; Guimarães, Gabriela; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Out of all the natural phenomena that afflict human society, droughts are one of the most damaging. Droughts have been estimated to cost an average of 6 to 8 billion dollars in damages per year, yet they are often overlooked in comparison to other natural disasters, because they are invisible to the naked eye, and quite difficult to measure. The presented research display a developed methodology to assess the behavior of different meteorological drought indices on a continental scale in Europe. Firstly, is assessed the behavior on varying temporal scales, and secondly, it is determine whether or not droughts have become more frequent and/or intense in recent decades. Results over the analyzed period (1950 to 2014), shows that the frequency of meteorological drought events are slightly increasing (in the SPEI index). Instead for the SPI index, this trend is not patent probably because of his own definition. About the intensity, in contrast, it seems the events are become more intense. A plausible conclusion is that the quantity of annually events of drought over Europe are conserved, but the same are becoming longer and intense. The findings of this research emphasize the impacts that climate change and increasing temperatures will have on drought impacts and the need for water management sectors to incorporate that knowledge into the consumption and protection of water resources. The advantage of using geospatial techniques into the drought monitoring, like the kriging interpolation used in the present model, allow us to comprehensively analyze drought events in different time and spatial scales.

Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability.

PubMed

Zang, Christian; Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Dittmar, Christoph; Rothe, Andreas; Menzel, Annette

2014-12-01

The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree-specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree-ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low-growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of drought on the quality of surface water of the basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, B. B.; Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Cheng, B. F.; Cui, X. H.

2013-11-01

Under the background of climate change and human's activities, there has been presenting an increase both in the frequency of droughts and the range of their impacts. Droughts may give rise to a series of resources, environmental and ecological effects, i.e. water shortage, water quality deterioration as well as the decrease in the diversity of aquatic organisms. This paper, above all, identifies the impact mechanism of drought on the surface water quality of the basin, and then systematically studies the laws of generation, transfer, transformation and degradation of pollutants during the drought, finding out that the alternating droughts and floods stage is the critical period during which the surface water quality is affected. Secondly, through employing indoor orthogonality experiments, serving drought degree, rainfall intensity and rainfall duration as the main elements and designing various scenario models, the study inspects the effects of various factors on the nitrogen loss in soil as well as the loss of non-point sources pollution and the leaching rate of nitrogen under the different alternating scenarios of drought and flood. It comes to the conclusion that the various factors and the loss of non-point source pollution are positively correlated, and under the alternating scenarios of drought and flood, there is an exacerbation in the loss of ammonium nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen in soil, which generates the transfer and transformation mechanisms of non-point source pollution from a micro level. Finally, by employing the data of Nenjiang river basin, the paper assesses the impacts of drought on the surface water quality from a macro level.

Modifying rainfall patterns in a Mediterranean shrubland: system design, plant responses, and experimental burning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parra, Antonio; Ramírez, David A.; Resco, Víctor; Velasco, Ángel; Moreno, José M.

2012-11-01

Global warming is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, as well as the occurrence of large fires. Understanding the interactions between drought, fire and plant responses is therefore important. In this study, we present an experiment in which rainfall patterns were modified to simulate various levels of drought in a Mediterranean shrubland of central Spain dominated by Cistus ladanifer, Erica arborea and Phillyrea angustifolia. A system composed of automatic rainout shelters with an irrigation facility was used. It was designed to be applied in vegetation 2 m tall, treat relatively large areas (36 m2), and be quickly dismantled to perform experimental burning and reassembled back again. Twenty plots were subjected to four rainfall treatments from early spring: natural rainfall, long-term average rainfall (2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction from long-term rainfall, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). The plots were burned in late summer, without interfering with rainfall manipulations. Results indicated that rainfall manipulations caused differences in soil moisture among treatments, leading to reduced water availability and growth of C. ladanifer and E. arborea in the drought treatments. However, P. angustifolia was not affected by the manipulations. Rainout shelters had a negligible impact on plot microenvironment. Experimental burns were of high fire intensity, without differences among treatments. Our system provides a tool to study the combined effects of drought and fire on vegetation, which is important to assess the threats posed by climate change in Mediterranean environments.

Modifying rainfall patterns in a Mediterranean shrubland: system design, plant responses, and experimental burning.

PubMed

Parra, Antonio; Ramírez, David A; Resco, Víctor; Velasco, Ángel; Moreno, José M

2012-11-01

Global warming is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, as well as the occurrence of large fires. Understanding the interactions between drought, fire and plant responses is therefore important. In this study, we present an experiment in which rainfall patterns were modified to simulate various levels of drought in a Mediterranean shrubland of central Spain dominated by Cistus ladanifer, Erica arborea and Phillyrea angustifolia. A system composed of automatic rainout shelters with an irrigation facility was used. It was designed to be applied in vegetation 2 m tall, treat relatively large areas (36 m2), and be quickly dismantled to perform experimental burning and reassembled back again. Twenty plots were subjected to four rainfall treatments from early spring: natural rainfall, long-term average rainfall (2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction from long-term rainfall, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). The plots were burned in late summer, without interfering with rainfall manipulations. Results indicated that rainfall manipulations caused differences in soil moisture among treatments, leading to reduced water availability and growth of C. ladanifer and E. arborea in the drought treatments. However, P. angustifolia was not affected by the manipulations. Rainout shelters had a negligible impact on plot microenvironment. Experimental burns were of high fire intensity, without differences among treatments. Our system provides a tool to study the combined effects of drought and fire on vegetation, which is important to assess the threats posed by climate change in Mediterranean environments.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States.

PubMed

Littell, Jeremy S; Peterson, David L; Riley, Karin L; Liu, Yongquiang; Luce, Charles H

2016-07-01

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate - including short- and long-term droughts - are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Severe summer heatwave and drought strongly reduced carbon uptake in Southern China

DOE PAGES

Yuan, Wenping; Cai, Wenwen; Chen, Yang; ...

2016-01-07

Increasing heatwave and drought events can potentially alter the carbon cycle. Few studies have investigated the impacts of hundred-year return heatwaves and droughts, as those events are rare. In the summer of 2013, southern China experienced its strongest drought and heatwave on record for the past 113 years. We show that the record-breaking heatwave and drought lasted two months (from July to August), significantly reduced the satellite-based vegetation index and gross primary production, substantially altered the regional carbon cycle, and produced the largest negative crop yield anomaly since 1960. The event resulted in a net reduction of 101.54 Tg Cmore » in carbon sequestration in the region during these two months, which was 39–53% of the annual net carbon sink of China’s terrestrial ecosystems (190–260 Tg C yr -1). Moreover, model experiments showed that heatwaves and droughts consistently decreased ecosystem vegetation primary production but had opposite impacts on ecosystem respiration (TER), with increased TER by 6.78 ± 2.15% and decreased TER by 15.34 ± 3.57% assuming only changed temperature and precipitation, respectively. As a result, in light of increasing frequency and severity of future heatwaves and droughts, our study highlights the importance of accounting for the impacts of heatwaves and droughts in assessing the carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems.« less

Severe summer heatwave and drought strongly reduced carbon uptake in Southern China

PubMed Central

Yuan, Wenping; Cai, Wenwen; Chen, Yang; Liu, Shuguang; Dong, Wenjie; Zhang, Haicheng; Yu, Guirui; Chen, Zhuoqi; He, Honglin; Guo, Weidong; Liu, Dan; Liu, Shaoming; Xiang, Wenhua; Xie, Zhenghui; Zhao, Zhonghui; Zhou, Guomo

2016-01-01

Increasing heatwave and drought events can potentially alter the carbon cycle. Few studies have investigated the impacts of hundred-year return heatwaves and droughts, as those events are rare. In the summer of 2013, southern China experienced its strongest drought and heatwave on record for the past 113 years. We show that the record-breaking heatwave and drought lasted two months (from July to August), significantly reduced the satellite-based vegetation index and gross primary production, substantially altered the regional carbon cycle, and produced the largest negative crop yield anomaly since 1960. The event resulted in a net reduction of 101.54 Tg C in carbon sequestration in the region during these two months, which was 39–53% of the annual net carbon sink of China’s terrestrial ecosystems (190–260 Tg C yr−1). Moreover, model experiments showed that heatwaves and droughts consistently decreased ecosystem vegetation primary production but had opposite impacts on ecosystem respiration (TER), with increased TER by 6.78 ± 2.15% and decreased TER by 15.34 ± 3.57% assuming only changed temperature and precipitation, respectively. In light of increasing frequency and severity of future heatwaves and droughts, our study highlights the importance of accounting for the impacts of heatwaves and droughts in assessing the carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. PMID:26739761

Severe summer heatwave and drought strongly reduced carbon uptake in Southern China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, Wenping; Cai, Wenwen; Chen, Yang

Increasing heatwave and drought events can potentially alter the carbon cycle. Few studies have investigated the impacts of hundred-year return heatwaves and droughts, as those events are rare. In the summer of 2013, southern China experienced its strongest drought and heatwave on record for the past 113 years. We show that the record-breaking heatwave and drought lasted two months (from July to August), significantly reduced the satellite-based vegetation index and gross primary production, substantially altered the regional carbon cycle, and produced the largest negative crop yield anomaly since 1960. The event resulted in a net reduction of 101.54 Tg Cmore » in carbon sequestration in the region during these two months, which was 39–53% of the annual net carbon sink of China’s terrestrial ecosystems (190–260 Tg C yr -1). Moreover, model experiments showed that heatwaves and droughts consistently decreased ecosystem vegetation primary production but had opposite impacts on ecosystem respiration (TER), with increased TER by 6.78 ± 2.15% and decreased TER by 15.34 ± 3.57% assuming only changed temperature and precipitation, respectively. As a result, in light of increasing frequency and severity of future heatwaves and droughts, our study highlights the importance of accounting for the impacts of heatwaves and droughts in assessing the carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems.« less

Exploring the effect of drought extent and interval on the Florida snail kite: Interplay between spatial and temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; Bennetts, Robert E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2002-01-01

The paper aims at exploring the viability of the Florida snail kite population under various drought regimes in its wetland habitat. The population dynamics of snail kites are strongly linked with the hydrology of the system due to the dependence of this bird species on one exclusive prey species, the apple snail, which is negatively affected by a drying out of habitat. Based on empirical evidence, it has been hypothesised that the viability of the snail kite population critically depends not only on the time interval between droughts, but also on the spatial extent of these droughts. A system wide drought is likely to result in reduced reproduction and increased mortality, whereas the birds can respond to local droughts by moving to sites where conditions are still favourable. This paper explores the implications of this hypothesis by means of a spatially-explicit individual-based model. The specific aim of the model is to study in a factorial design the dynamics of the kite population in relation to two scale parameters, the temporal interval between droughts and the spatial correlation between droughts. In the model high drought frequencies led to reduced numbers of kites. Also, habitat degradation due to prolonged periods of inundation led to lower predicted numbers of kites. Another main result was that when the spatial correlation between droughts was low, the model showed little variability in the predicted numbers of kites. But when droughts occurred mostly on a system wide level, environmental stochasticity strongly increased the stochasticity in kite numbers and in the worst case the viability of the kite population was seriously threatened.

Drought index driven by L-band microwave soil moisture data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitar, Ahmad Al; Kerr, Yann; Merlin, Olivier; Cabot, François; Choné, Audrey; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

2014-05-01

Drought is considered in many areas across the globe as one of the major extreme events. Studies do not all agree on the increase of the frequency of drought events over the past 60 years [1], but they all agree that the impact of droughts has increased and the need for efficient global monitoring tools has become most than ever urgent. Droughts are monitored through drought indexes, many of which are based on precipitation (Palmer index(s), PDI…), on vegetation status (VDI) or on surface temperatures. They can also be derived from climate prediction models outputs. The GMO has selected the (SPI) Standardized Precipitation Index as the reference index for the monitoring of drought at global scale. The drawback of this index is that it is directly dependent on global precipitation products that are not accurate over global scale. On the other hand, Vegetation based indexes show the a posteriori effect of drought, since they are based on NDVI. In this study, we choose to combine the surface soil moisture from microwave sensor with climate data to access a drought index. The microwave data are considered from the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission at L-Band (1.4 Ghz) interferometric radiometer from ESA (European Space Agency) [2]. Global surface soil moisture maps with 3 days coverage for ascending 6AM and descending 6PM orbits SMOS have been delivered since January 2010 at a 40 km nominal resolution. We use in this study the daily L3 global soil moisture maps from CATDS (Centre Aval de Traitement des Données SMOS) [3,4]. We present a drought index computed by a double bucket hydrological model driven by operational remote sensing data and ancillary datasets. The SPI is also compared to other drought indicators like vegetation indexes and Palmer drought index. Comparison of drought index to vegetation indexes from AVHRR and MODIS over continental United States show that the drought index can be used as an early warning system for drought monitoring as the water shortage can be sensed several weeks before the vegetation dryness occures. Keywords: SMOS, microwave, level 4, soil moisture, drought, precipitation, hydrological model, vegetation index

The Impact of Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the 2017 Northern Great Plains Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roundy, J. K.; Santanello, J. A., Jr.

2017-12-01

In a changing climate, the potential for increased frequency and duration of drought implies devastating impacts on many aspects of society. The negative impacts of drought can be reduced through informing sustainable water management made possible by real-time monitoring and prediction. The refinement of forecast models is best realized through large-scale observation based datasets, yet there are few of these datasets currently available. The Coupling Drought Index (CDI) is a metric based on the persistence of Land-Atmosphere (L-A) coupling into distinct regimes derived from observations of the land and atmospheric state. The coupling regime persistence has been shown to relate to drought intensification and recovery and is the basis for the Coupling Statistical Model (CSM), which uses a Markov Chain framework to make statistical predictions. The CDI and CSM have been used to understand the predictability of L-A interactions in NCEP's Climate Forecasts System version 2 (CFSv2) and indicated that the forecasts exhibit strong biases in the L-A coupling that produced biases in the precipitation and limited the predictability of drought. The CDI can also be derived exclusively from satellite data which provides an observational large-scale metric of L-A coupling and drought evolution. This provides a unique observational tool for understanding the persistence and intensification of drought through land-atmosphere interactions. During the Spring and Summer of 2017, a drought developed over the Norther great plains that caused substantial agricultural losses in parts of Montana and North and South Dakota. In this work, we use satellite derived CDI to explore the impact of Land-Atmosphere Interactions on the persistence and intensification of the 2017 Northern Great Plains drought. To do this we analyze and quantify the change in CDI at various spatial and temporal scales and correlate these changes with other drought indicators including the U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu). The 2017 Northern Great Plains drought is compared to previous droughts in the region and the predictability of 2017 drought from the CSM as well as future droughts for the area is assessed.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

2016-04-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

2015-12-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

A Phenological Timetable of Oak Growth under Experimental Drought and Air Warming

PubMed Central

Kuster, Thomas M.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Schaub, Marcus; Arend, Matthias

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperature and decrease summer precipitation in Central Europe. Little is known about how warming and drought will affect phenological patterns of oaks, which are considered to possess excellent adaptability to these climatic changes. Here, we investigated bud burst and intra-annual shoot growth of Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens grown on two different forest soils and exposed to air warming and drought. Phenological development was assessed over the course of three growing seasons. Warming advanced bud burst by 1–3 days °C−1 and led to an earlier start of intra-annual shoot growth. Despite this phenological shift, total time span of annual growth and shoot biomass were not affected. Drought changed the frequency and intensity of intra-annual shoot growth and advanced bud burst in the subsequent spring of a severe summer drought by 1–2 days. After re-wetting, shoot growth recovered within a few days, demonstrating the superior drought tolerance of this tree genus. Our findings show that phenological patterns of oaks are modified by warming and drought but also suggest that ontogenetic factors and/or limitations of water and nutrients counteract warming effects on the biomass and the entire span of annual shoot growth. PMID:24586988

Water use efficiency of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and responses to drought

PubMed Central

Liu, Yibo; Xiao, Jingfeng; Ju, Weimin; Zhou, Yanlian; Wang, Shaoqiang; Wu, Xiaocui

2015-01-01

Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg−1 H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and the increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. “Turning-points” were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme droughts reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate change particularly as drought is projected to increase in both frequency and severity. PMID:26347998

Water use efficiency of China's terrestrial ecosystems and responses to drought.

PubMed

Liu, Yibo; Xiao, Jingfeng; Ju, Weimin; Zhou, Yanlian; Wang, Shaoqiang; Wu, Xiaocui

2015-09-08

Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China's terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg(-1) H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and the increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. "Turning-points" were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme droughts reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate change particularly as drought is projected to increase in both frequency and severity.

A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, S.; Svensson, C.; Hannaford, J.; Barker, L. J.; Stahl, K.

2016-07-01

Drought monitoring and early warning is an important measure to enhance resilience towards drought. While there are numerous operational systems using different drought indicators, there is no consensus on which indicator best represents drought impact occurrence for any given sector. Furthermore, thresholds are widely applied in these indicators but, to date, little empirical evidence exists as to which indicator thresholds trigger impacts on society, the economy, and ecosystems. The main obstacle for evaluating commonly used drought indicators is a lack of information on drought impacts. Our aim was therefore to exploit text-based data from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) to identify indicators that are meaningful for region-, sector-, and season-specific impact occurrence, and to empirically determine indicator thresholds. In addition, we tested the predictability of impact occurrence based on the best-performing indicators. To achieve these aims we applied a correlation analysis and an ensemble regression tree approach, using Germany and the UK (the most data-rich countries in the EDII) as test beds. As candidate indicators we chose two meteorological indicators (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index, SPEI) and two hydrological indicators (streamflow and groundwater level percentiles). The analysis revealed that accumulation periods of SPI and SPEI best linked to impact occurrence are longer for the UK compared with Germany, but there is variability within each country, among impact categories and, to some degree, seasons. The median of regression tree splitting values, which we regard as estimates of thresholds of impact occurrence, was around -1 for SPI and SPEI in the UK; distinct differences between northern/northeastern vs. southern/central regions were found for Germany. Predictions with the ensemble regression tree approach yielded reasonable results for regions with good impact data coverage. The predictions also provided insights into the EDII, in particular highlighting drought events where missing impact reports may reflect a lack of recording rather than true absence of impacts. Overall, the presented quantitative framework proved to be a useful tool for evaluating drought indicators, and to model impact occurrence. In summary, this study demonstrates the information gain for drought monitoring and early warning through impact data collection and analysis. It highlights the important role that quantitative analysis with impact data can have in providing "ground truth" for drought indicators, alongside more traditional stakeholder-led approaches.

Identification of differentially-expressed genes potentially implicated in drought response in pitaya (Hylocereus undatus) by suppression subtractive hybridization and cDNA microarray analysis.

PubMed

Fan, Qing-Jie; Yan, Feng-Xia; Qiao, Guang; Zhang, Bing-Xue; Wen, Xiao-Peng

2014-01-01

Drought is one of the most severe threats to the growth, development and yield of plant. In order to unravel the molecular basis underlying the high tolerance of pitaya (Hylocereus undatus) to drought stress, suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) and cDNA microarray approaches were firstly combined to identify the potential important or novel genes involved in the plant responses to drought stress. The forward (drought over drought-free) and reverse (drought-free over drought) suppression subtractive cDNA libraries were constructed using in vitro shoots of cultivar 'Zihonglong' exposed to drought stress and drought-free (control). A total of 2112 clones, among which half were from either forward or reverse SSH library, were randomly picked up to construct a pitaya cDNA microarray. Microarray analysis was carried out to verify the expression fluctuations of this set of clones upon drought treatment compared with the controls. A total of 309 expressed sequence tags (ESTs), 153 from forward library and 156 from reverse library, were obtained, and 138 unique ESTs were identified after sequencing by clustering and blast analyses, which included genes that had been previously reported as responsive to water stress as well as some functionally unknown genes. Thirty six genes were mapped to 47 KEGG pathways, including carbohydrate metabolism, lipid metabolism, energy metabolism, nucleotide metabolism, and amino acid metabolism of pitaya. Expression analysis of the selected ESTs by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) corroborated the results of differential screening. Moreover, time-course expression patterns of these selected ESTs further confirmed that they were closely responsive to drought treatment. Among the differentially expressed genes (DEGs), many are related to stress tolerances including drought tolerance. Thereby, the mechanism of drought tolerance of this pitaya genotype is a very complex physiological and biochemical process, in which multiple metabolism pathways and many genes were implicated. The data gained herein provide an insight into the mechanism underlying the drought stress tolerance of pitaya, as well as may facilitate the screening of candidate genes for drought tolerance. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on resistance versus resilience of Douglas fir to drought.

PubMed

Carnwath, Gunnar; Nelson, Cara

2017-01-01

Significant increases in tree mortality due to drought-induced physiological stress have been documented worldwide. This trend is likely to continue with increased frequency and severity of extreme drought events in the future. Therefore, understanding the factors that influence variability in drought responses among trees will be critical to predicting ecosystem responses to climate change and developing effective management actions. In this study, we used hierarchical mixed-effects models to analyze drought responses of Pseudotsuga menziesii in 20 unmanaged forests stands across a broad range of environmental conditions in northeastern Washington, USA. We aimed to 1) identify the biotic and abiotic attributes most closely associated with the responses of individual trees to drought and 2) quantify the variability in drought responses at different spatial scales. We found that growth rates and competition for resources significantly affected resistance to a severe drought event in 2001: slow-growing trees and trees growing in subordinate canopy positions and/or with more neighbors suffered greater declines in radial growth during the drought event. In contrast, the ability of a tree to return to normal growth when climatic conditions improved (resilience) was unaffected by competition or relative growth rates. Drought responses were significantly influenced by tree age: older trees were more resistant but less resilient than younger trees. Finally, we found differences between resistance and resilience in spatial scale: a significant proportion (approximately 50%) of the variability in drought resistance across the study area was at broad spatial scales (i.e. among different forest types), most likely due to differences in the total amount of precipitation received at different elevations; in contrast, variation in resilience was overwhelmingly (82%) at the level of individual trees within stands and there was no difference in drought resilience among forest types. Our results suggest that for Pseudotsuga menziesii resistance and resilience to drought are driven by different factors and vary at different spatial scales.

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on resistance versus resilience of Douglas fir to drought

PubMed Central

Nelson, Cara

2017-01-01

Significant increases in tree mortality due to drought-induced physiological stress have been documented worldwide. This trend is likely to continue with increased frequency and severity of extreme drought events in the future. Therefore, understanding the factors that influence variability in drought responses among trees will be critical to predicting ecosystem responses to climate change and developing effective management actions. In this study, we used hierarchical mixed-effects models to analyze drought responses of Pseudotsuga menziesii in 20 unmanaged forests stands across a broad range of environmental conditions in northeastern Washington, USA. We aimed to 1) identify the biotic and abiotic attributes most closely associated with the responses of individual trees to drought and 2) quantify the variability in drought responses at different spatial scales. We found that growth rates and competition for resources significantly affected resistance to a severe drought event in 2001: slow-growing trees and trees growing in subordinate canopy positions and/or with more neighbors suffered greater declines in radial growth during the drought event. In contrast, the ability of a tree to return to normal growth when climatic conditions improved (resilience) was unaffected by competition or relative growth rates. Drought responses were significantly influenced by tree age: older trees were more resistant but less resilient than younger trees. Finally, we found differences between resistance and resilience in spatial scale: a significant proportion (approximately 50%) of the variability in drought resistance across the study area was at broad spatial scales (i.e. among different forest types), most likely due to differences in the total amount of precipitation received at different elevations; in contrast, variation in resilience was overwhelmingly (82%) at the level of individual trees within stands and there was no difference in drought resilience among forest types. Our results suggest that for Pseudotsuga menziesii resistance and resilience to drought are driven by different factors and vary at different spatial scales. PMID:28973008

Extreme drought causes distinct water acidification and eutrophication in the Lower Lakes (Lakes Alexandrina and Albert), Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Siyue; Bush, Richard T.; Mao, Rong; Xiong, Lihua; Ye, Chen

2017-01-01

Droughts are set to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change and water extraction, and understanding their influence on ecosystems is urgent in the Holocene. Low rainfall across the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia resulted in an unprecedented water level decline in the Lower Lakes (Lakes Alexandrina and Albert) at the downstream end of the river system. A comprehensive data covering pre-drought (2004-2006), drought (2007-2010) and post-drought (2010-2013) was firstly used to unravel drought effects on water quality in the contrasting main parts and margins of the two Lakes, particularly following water acidification resulting from acid sulfate soil oxidation. Salinity, nutrients and Chl-a significantly increased during the drought in the Lake main waterbody, while pH remained stable or showed minor shifts. In contrast to the Lake Alexandrina, total dissolved solid (TDS) and electrical conductivity (EC) during the post-drought more than doubled the pre-drought period in the Lake Albert as being a terminal lake system with narrow and shallow entrance. Rewetting of the exposed pyrite-containing sediment resulted in very low pH (below 3) in Lake margins, which positively contributed to salinity increases via SO42- release and limestone dissolution. Very acidic water (pH 2-3) was neutralised naturally by lake refill, but aerial limestone dosing was required for neutralisation of water acidity during the drought period. The Lower Lakes are characterized as hypereutrophic with much higher salinity, nutrient and algae concentrations than guideline levels for aquatic ecosystem. These results suggest that, in the Lower Lakes, drought could cause water quality deterioration through water acidification and increased nutrient and Chl-a concentrations, more effective water management in the lake catchment is thus crucial to prevent the similar water quality deterioration since the projected intensification of droughts. A comparative assessment on lake resilience and recovering processes should be undertaken with a post-drought monitoring program.

Drought trends in the Iberian Peninsula over the last 112 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia, Célia M.; Ramos, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2015-04-01

The Iberian Peninsula is often affected by drought events with strong influences in ecosystems and the related social and economic impacts (Gouveia et al. 2012, Trigo et al., 2013). In the last decades the severity of droughts in Iberia have increased due to the higher atmospheric evaporative demand (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014). The need for a deeper knowledge of drought frequency, duration and intensity over the Iberian Peninsula during the last 112 years is reinforced by the findings showing that the period of 1970-2010 over the Mediterranean region was considered drier when compared with 1901-1970. Together with the increasing dryness, the projections point for an increase of drought conditions during the twenty-first century (Hoerling et al., 2012) will tend to exacerbate these problems. The evolution of drought in the Iberian Peninsula was analyzed, using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), for the period 1901-2012, and the sub-periods 1901-1937, 1938-1974 and 1975-2012. We have used SPI and SPEI for the time scale of 12 months, as obtained from CRU TS3.21 database between 1901 and 2012, using a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The drought indices were analyzed in order to identify significant trends during the entire period and sub-periods. Trends in annual precipitation and PET were also performed. Drought's duration, magnitude and time spanned between drought events were computed. SPI and SPEI significant trends show areas with opposite signals in the period 1901-2012, following precipitation patterns. Precipitation trends are significant and positive in the Northwestern region of the IP, and significant and negative in the Southern areas. SPEI identified dryer conditions and an increase in the area affected by droughts, which is in agreement with the increase in PET on the majority of the territory. The same spatial differences were identified in the drought duration, magnitude and time between drought events, although no clear pattern has emerged. Gouveia C.M., Bastos A., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C. (2012) "Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12, 3123-3137, 2012. Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., Perlwitz, J., Quan, X., Zhang, T., and Pegion, P. (2012). On the increased frequency of Mediterranean drought. J. Clim., 25, 2146-2161. Trigo R.M., Añel J., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., Gimeno L., Nieto R., Castillo R., Allen M.R., Massey N. (2013), The record Winter drought of 2011-12 in the Iberian Peninsula [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective". [Peterson, T. C., M. P. Hoerling, P.A. Stott and S. Herring, Eds.] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (9), S41-S45. Vicente-Serrano S.M., López-Moreno J.I., Beguería S., Lorenzo-Lacruz J., Sanchez-Lorenzo A., García-Ruiz J.M., Azorin-Molina C., Móran-Tejeda E., Revuelto J., Trigo R., Coelho F., Espejo F.: Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 9, 044001, 2014. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

Managing ecological drought and flood within a nature-based approach. Reality or illusion?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, Rares; Finger, David; Stolte, Jannes

2017-04-01

Water hazards events, emphasized by an improperly implemented water management, may lead to ecological degradation of ecosystems. Traditional water management has generally sought to dampen the natural variability of water flows in different types of ecosystems to attain steady and dependable water supplies for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation, navigation, and hydropower, and to moderate extreme water conditions such as floods and droughts. Ecological drought can be defined as a prolonged and widespread deficit in available water supplies — including changes in natural and managed hydrology — that create multiple stresses across ecosystems, becomes a critical concern among researchers being a phenomenon much more complex than the other types of drought and requesting a specific approach. The impact of drought on ecosystem services lead to the necessity of identifying and implementing eco-reclamation measures which can generate better ecological answers to droughts. Ecological flood is the type of flood analyzed in full consideration with ecological issues, in the analyze process being approached 4 key aspects: connectivity of water system, landscapes of river and lakes, mobility of water bodies, and safety of flood control. As a consequence, both ecological drought and ecological flood represents high challenges for ecological sustainable water management in the process of identifying structural and non-structural measures for covering human demands without causing affected ecosystems to degrade or simplify. An ecological flood and drought control system will combine both the needs of the ecosystems as well as and flood and drought control measures. The components ecosystems' natural flow regime defined by magnitude, frequency, duration and peak timing (high or low flows) interact to maintain the ecosystem productivity. This productivity can be impaired by altered flow regimes generally due to structural measures designed to control flooding. However, from an ecological perspective, floods are not disasters in the sense that human society typically views them. Considering all previous aspects, it is clear that events like floods and droughts can't be avoided, but the hydrological extremes related to these events can be sustainable managed using a series of actions based on two inter-connected approaches: prevention approach and post-event management approach. The main objective remains the necessity of limiting the consequences of water hazards on socio-economic sectors but also the need of quickly and sustainable recovering after an event like this. However, the question still remains valid: Ecological flood and ecological drought can be managed through a nature-based approach? This paper will focus on a theoretical analysis of these "ecological" hydro-meteorological events and will debate a possible nature-based approach for their sustainable management.

Drought vulnerability assesssment and mapping in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imani, Yasmina; Lahlou, Ouiam; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Juergen

2014-05-01

Drought vulnerability assessment and mapping in Morocco Authors: Yasmina Imani 1, Ouiam Lahlou 1, Si Bennasser Alaoui 1 Paulo Barbosa 2, Jurgen Vogt 2, Gustavo Naumann 2 1: Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II), Rabat Morocco. 2: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy. In Morocco, nearly 50% of the population lives in rural areas. They are mostly small subsistent farmers whose production depends almost entirely on rainfall. They are therefore very sensitive to drought episodes that may dramatically affect their incomes. Although, as a consequence of the increasing frequency, length and severity of drought episodes in the late 90's, the Moroccan government decided, to move on from a crisis to a risk management approach, drought management remains in practice mainly reactive and often ineffective. The lack of effectiveness of public policy is in part a consequence of the poor understanding of drought vulnerability at the rural community level, which prevents the development of efficient mitigation actions and adaptation strategies, tailored to the needs and specificities of each rural community. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess and map drought vulnerability at the rural commune level in the Oum Er-Rbia basin which is a very heterogeneous basin, showing a big variability of climates, landscapes, cropping systems and social habits. Agricultural data collected from the provincial and local administrations of Agriculture and socio-economic data from the National Department of Statistics were used to compute a composite vulnerability index (DVI) integrating four different components: (i) the renewable natural capacity, (ii) the economic capacity, (iii) human and civic resources, and (iv) infrastructure and technology. The drought vulnerability maps that were derived from the computation of the DVI shows that except very specific areas, most of the Oum er Rbia basin is highly vulnerable to drought. The mountainous areas present the most favorable annual rainfall. That contributes to explain their low DVI. In the provinces that present the highest vulnerability to drought, spots presenting a lower vulnerability correspond to large irrigated perimeters. Overall, the main output of this study were to show how the DVI can allow detecting the differences in vulnerability in the different rural communes providing, therefore, a tool for more effective drought management practices. The analysis of the 4 dimensions of the DVI showed that at the river basin level, the mean annual rainfall, the percentage of irrigated lands, The Cereal / Fruit trees and market crops ratio, the land status, the farm's sizes, the adult literacy rate and the access to improved drinking water represent the major drivers of vulnerability. They may therefore be targeted in priority by mitigation and adaptation actions.

Temporal network analysis identifies early physiological and transcriptomic indicators of mild drought in Brassica rapa

PubMed Central

Gehan, Malia A; Mockler, Todd C; Weinig, Cynthia; Ewers, Brent E

2017-01-01

The dynamics of local climates make development of agricultural strategies challenging. Yield improvement has progressed slowly, especially in drought-prone regions where annual crop production suffers from episodic aridity. Underlying drought responses are circadian and diel control of gene expression that regulate daily variations in metabolic and physiological pathways. To identify transcriptomic changes that occur in the crop Brassica rapa during initial perception of drought, we applied a co-expression network approach to associate rhythmic gene expression changes with physiological responses. Coupled analysis of transcriptome and physiological parameters over a two-day time course in control and drought-stressed plants provided temporal resolution necessary for correlation of network modules with dynamic changes in stomatal conductance, photosynthetic rate, and photosystem II efficiency. This approach enabled the identification of drought-responsive genes based on their differential rhythmic expression profiles in well-watered versus droughted networks and provided new insights into the dynamic physiological changes that occur during drought. PMID:28826479

The use of infrared thermal imaging as a non-destructive screening tool for identifying drought-tolerant lentil genotypes.

PubMed

Biju, Sajitha; Fuentes, Sigfredo; Gupta, Dorin

2018-06-01

Lentil (Lens culinaris, Medik.) is an important legume crop, which often experience drought stress especially at the flowering and grain filling phenological stages. The availability of efficient and robust screening tools based on relevant non-destructive quantifiable traits would facilitate research on crop improvement for drought tolerance. The objective of this study was to evaluate the drought tolerance of 37 lentil genotypes using infrared thermal imaging (IRTI), drought tolerance parameters and multivariate data analysis. Potted plants were kept in a completely randomized design in a growth chamber with five replicates. Plants were subjected to three different drought treatments: 100, 50 and 20% of field capacity at the onset of reproductive period. The relative drought stress tolerance was determined based on a set of morpho-physiological parameters including non-destructive measures based on IRTI, such as: canopy temperature (Tc), canopy temperature depression (CTD) and crop water stress index (CWSI) during the growing period and destructive measures at harvest, such as: dry root-shoot ratio (RS ratio), relative water content (RWC) and harvest index (HI). The drought tolerance indices used were drought susceptibility index (DSI) and drought tolerance efficiency (DTE). Results showed that drought stress treatments significantly reduced the RWC, HI, CTD and DSI, whereas, the values of Tc, CWSI, RS ratio and DTE significantly increased for all the genotypes. The cluster analysis from morpho-physiological parameters clustered genotypes in three distinctive groups as per the level of drought stress tolerance. The genotypes with higher values of RS ratio, RWC, HI, DTE and CTD and lower values of DSI, Tc and CWSI were identified as drought-tolerant genotypes. Based on this preliminary screening, the genotypes Digger, Cumra, Indianhead, ILL 5588, ILL 6002 and ILL 5582 were identified as promising drought-tolerant genotypes. It can be concluded that the IRTI analysis is a high-throughput constructive screening tool along with RS ratio, RWC, HI and other drought tolerance indices to define the drought stress tolerance variability within lentil plants. These results provide a foundation for future research directed at identifying powerful drought assessment traits using rapid and non-destructive techniques, such as IRTI along with the yield traits, and understanding the biochemical and molecular mechanisms underlying lentil tolerance to drought stress. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Population viability of Pediocactus bradyi (Cactaceae) in a changing climate.

PubMed

Shryock, Daniel F; Esque, Todd C; Hughes, Lee

2014-11-01

A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λs) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λs, and (2) quantify variability in λs based on temporal replication of data. Overall λs was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λs, but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λs estimates. Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Updated Global Patterns of Drought and Heat-Induced Forest Die-off, and Ecohydrological Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. D.

2011-12-01

Ongoing climate changes - particularly increases in mean temperatures as well as frequencies, durations, and severities of extreme drought and heat - can amplify tree physiological stress and thereby drive increases in both background tree mortality rates and episodes of rapid, broad-scale forest die-off. Updates are presented to a recent global synthesis of documented tree mortality episodes attributed to drought and/or heat, further expanding the documented spatial distribution and demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types from tropical moist forests and savannas to temperate and boreal forests. Given that anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive substantial increases in both mean temperatures and the frequency/duration/severity of extreme drought and heat in many regions, recent episodes of broad-scale drought-induced forest mortality may reflect increasing global risks of forest die-off, even in environments not normally considered water-limited. Since vegetation cover patterns are closely and interactively linked with ecosystem water fluxes, episodes of massive forest die-off can be expected to significantly affect ecohydrological patterns and processes, ranging from runoff and erosion to evaporation and transpiration, often with nonlinear threshold responses expected. Diverse examples of such feedbacks between climate-induced forest mortality and ecohydrology are presented, ranging from detailed observations of linked changes in vegetation, runoff, and erosion in response to forest mortality in the southwestern US to Western Australia and Amazonian rainforest water cycling. Current research efforts to address the large knowledge gaps that at present hinder our ability to predict climate-induced forest mortality and associated ecohydrological responses are discussed.

Introduction of Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System based on Real-time Water Information Using ICT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y., II; Kim, H. S.; Chun, G.

2016-12-01

There were severe damages such as restriction on water supply caused by continuous drought from 2014 to 2015 in South Korea. Through this drought event, government of South Korea decided to establish National Drought Information Analysis Center in K-water(Korea Water Resources Corporation) and introduce a national drought monitoring and early warning system to mitigate those damages. Drought index such as SPI(Standard Precipitation Index), PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index) and SMI(Soil Moisture Index) etc. have been developed and are widely used to provide drought information in many countries. However, drought indexes are not appropriate for drought monitoring and early warning in civilized countries with high population density such as South Korea because it could not consider complicated water supply network. For the national drought monitoring and forecasting of South Korea, `Drought Information Analysis System' (D.I.A.S) which is based on the real time data(storage, flowrate, waterlevel etc.) was developed. Based on its advanced methodology, `DIAS' is changing the paradigm of drought monitoring and early warning systems. Because `D.I.A.S' contains the information of water supply network from water sources to the people across the nation and provides drought information considering the real-time hydrological conditions of each and every water source. For instance, in case the water level of a specific dam declines to predetermined level of caution, `D.I.A.S' will notify people who uses the dam as a source of residential or industrial water. It is expected to provide credible drought monitoring and forecasting information with a strong relationship between drought information and the feelings of people rely on water users by `D.I.A.S'.

Comprehensive assessment of drought from 1960 to 2013 in China based on different perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Wenli; Wang, Hongrui; Zhang, Jie

2017-10-01

Using daily and monthly precipitation data collected from 520 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2013, we compared a widely used drought index, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), with an extreme index, the maximum consecutive dry days index (CDD). Two other homogeneity test methods, namely the Gini coefficient (including both Total-Gini and Wet-Gini) and the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) were also applied to indirectly estimate extreme droughts. The changes in droughts determined using the SPI and the CDD exhibited similar spatial and temporal patterns throughout most parts of China, with the exception of Southwestern China. Comparison of the five indices indicated that Wet-Gini exhibited different or even opposite trends of drought across all of China. Finally, a trend analysis from 2000 to 2013 was applied to perform a regional empirical analysis of a classic extreme drought event in Southwestern China. All indices, except for Wet-Gini, indicated increasing drought risk.

Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates for drought and flood monitoring in Mozambique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tote, Carolien; Patricio, Domingos; Boogaard, Hendrik; van der Wijngaart, Raymond; Tarnavsky, Elena; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

Genome wide association study (GWAS) for grain yield in rice cultivated under water deficit.

PubMed

Pantalião, Gabriel Feresin; Narciso, Marcelo; Guimarães, Cléber; Castro, Adriano; Colombari, José Manoel; Breseghello, Flavio; Rodrigues, Luana; Vianello, Rosana Pereira; Borba, Tereza Oliveira; Brondani, Claudio

2016-12-01

The identification of rice drought tolerant materials is crucial for the development of best performing cultivars for the upland cultivation system. This study aimed to identify markers and candidate genes associated with drought tolerance by Genome Wide Association Study analysis, in order to develop tools for use in rice breeding programs. This analysis was made with 175 upland rice accessions (Oryza sativa), evaluated in experiments with and without water restriction, and 150,325 SNPs. Thirteen SNP markers associated with yield under drought conditions were identified. Through stepwise regression analysis, eight SNP markers were selected and validated in silico, and when tested by PCR, two out of the eight SNP markers were able to identify a group of rice genotypes with higher productivity under drought. These results are encouraging for deriving markers for the routine analysis of marker assisted selection. From the drought experiment, including the genes inherited in linkage blocks, 50 genes were identified, from which 30 were annotated, and 10 were previously related to drought and/or abiotic stress tolerance, such as the transcription factors WRKY and Apetala2, and protein kinases.

Extreme Droughts In Sydney And Melbourne Since The 1850s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogan, Selim

2014-05-01

Sydney and Melbourne are the two highly populated and very well known Australian cities. Population is over 4 million for each. These cities are subject to extreme droughts which affect regional water resources and cause substantial agricultural and economic losses. This study presents a drought analysis of Sydney and Melbourne for the period of 1850s to date by using Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). EDI is a function of precipitation needed for return to normal conditions, the amount of precipitation necessary for recovery from the accumulated deficit since the beginning of a drought. SPI is the most popular and widely used drought index for the last decades. According to the results of EDI analysis; 8 different extreme drought events identified in Sydney, and 5 events in Melbourne since 1850s. The characterization of these extreme drought events were investigated in terms of magnitude, duration, intensity and interarrival time between previous drought event. EDI results were compared with the results of SPI and the similarities and differences were then discussed in more detail. The most severe drought event was identified for the period of July 1979 to February 1981 (lasted 19 months) for Sydney, while the most severe drought took longer in Melbourne for the period of March 2006 to February 2010 (47 months). This study focuses on the benefits of the use of EDI and SPI methods in order to monitor droughts beside presenting the extreme drought case study of Sydney and Melbourne.

Classification Scheme for Centuries of Reconstructed Streamflow Droughts in Water Resources Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J.; Rosenberg, D. E.

2017-12-01

New advances in reconstructing streamflow from tree rings have permitted the reconstruction of flows back to the 1400s or earlier at a monthly, rather than annual, time scale. This is a critical step for incorporating centuries of streamflow reconstructions into water resources planning. Expanding the historical record is particularly important where the observed record contains few of these rare, but potentially disastrous extreme events. We present how a paleo-drought clustering approach was incorporated alongside more traditional water management planning in the Weber River basin, northern Utah. This study used newly developed monthly reconstructions of flow since 1430 CE and defined drought events as flow less than the 50th percentile during at least three contiguous months. Characteristics for each drought event included measures of drought duration, severity, cumulative loss, onset, seasonality, recession rate, and recovery rate. Reconstructed drought events were then clustered by hierarchical clustering to determine distinct drought "types" and the historical event that best represents the centroid of each cluster. The resulting 144 reconstructed drought events in the Weber basin clustered into nine distinct types, of which four were severe enough to potentially require drought management. Using the characteristic drought event for each of the severe drought clusters, water managers were able to estimate system reliability and the historical return frequency for each drought type. Plotting drought duration and severity from centuries of historical reconstructed events alongside observed events and climate change projections further placed recent events into a historical context. For example, the drought of record for the Weber River remains the most severe event in the record with regard to minimum flow percentile (1930, 7 years), but is far from the longest event in the longer historical record, where events beginning in 1658 and 1705 both lasted longer than 13 years. The proposed drought clustering approach provides a powerful tool for merging historical reconstructions, observations, and climate change projections in water resources planning, while also providing a framework to make use of valuable and increasingly available tree-ring reconstructions of monthly streamflow.

2009 Climate Change Research Strategy: Rocky Mountain Research Station

Treesearch

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2010-01-01

Climate change and shifting demographics influence the landscape and the social and economic systems of the Interior West. Climate change impacts are already evident, as seen in declining snowpacks, changes in runoff timing and intensity, increasing fire frequency and severity, increasing drought frequency and severity, and rising temperatures.

Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

2014-05-01

We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause-effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

Spatial analysis of extreme precipitation deficit as an index for atmospheric drought in Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani, Sepideh; Van De Vyver, Hans; Gobin, Anne

2014-05-01

The growing concern among the climate scientists is that the frequency of weather extremes will increase as a result of climate change. European society, for example, is particularly vulnerable to changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and wind storms, as seen in recent years [1,2]. A more than 50% of the land is occupied by managed ecosystem (agriculture, forestry) in Belgium. Moreover, among the many extreme weather conditions, drought counts to have a substantial impact on the agriculture and ecosystem of the affected region, because its most immediate consequence is a fall in crop production. Besides the technological advances, a reliable estimation of weather conditions plays a crucial role in improving the agricultural productivity. The above mentioned reasons provide a strong motivation for a research on the drought and its impacts on the economical and agricultural aspects in Belgium. The main purpose of the presented work is to map atmospheric drought Return-Levels (RL), as first insight for agricultural drought, employing spatial modelling approaches. The likelihood of future drought is studied on the basis of precipitation deficit indices for four vegetation types: water (W), grass (G), deciduous (D) and coniferous forests (C) is considered. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) [3,4,5] as a branch of probability and statistics, is dedicated to characterize the behaviour of extreme observations. The tail behaviour of the EVT distributions provide important features about return levels. EVT distributions are applicable in many study areas such as: hydrology, environmental research and meteorology, insurance and finance. Spatial Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, as a branch of EVT, are applied to annual maxima of drought at 13 hydro-meteorological stations across Belgium. Superiority of the spatial GEV model is that a region can be modelled merging the individual time series of observations from isolated sites and using a common regression model based on climatological/geographical covariates. The behaviour of the fitted spatial GEV-distribution is heavy-tailed with γ ≡ 0.3 over Belgium. A comparison between the RL-maps using GEV model and the ones obtained from Universal Kriging (UK) confirms the reliability of the spatial GEV model in explaining atmospheric drought in Belgium. References [1] Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhü, K., Koffi, B., Palutikoff, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K. (2007), Future extreme events in European climate; an exploration of Regional Climate Model projections. Climatic Change, 81, 71-95. [2] Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds.)] (2007), king Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. [3] Coles, S. (2001), An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer-Verlag Heidelberg, Germany. [4] Embrechts, P., C. Klüppelberg, and T. Mikosch (1997), Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance, Springer-Verlag, Berlin. [5] Smith, R., (2004), Statistics of extremes, with application in environment, insurance and finance, in : Extreme Values in Finance, Telecommunications and the Environment, edited by: Finkenstadt, B. and Rootzen, H., 373-388, Chapman and Hall CRC Press, London.

Microbial utilization of litter carbon under the effect of extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinrich, Steffen; Kuzyakov, Yakov; Glaser, Bruno

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to not only lead to an increase of average annual temperature but also to increase the frequency of extreme meteorological events. For example, extreme summer-droughts followed by heavy rainfall events are likely to increase. This may change SOM quality, composition, microbial community functioning and thus C turnover in temperate forest ecosystems. Therefore, we performed a tracer experiment in the "Fichtelgebirge" (Northern Bavaria) to verify the influence of strong drying followed by intensive rewetting on the microbial community structure and decomposition of litter-derived 13C by individual microbial groups. In 2010, sheltered plots with artificially simulated drought, those with additional irrigation and control sites under natural conditions were established at a Norway spruce forest. At each plot, we added 13C enriched spruce litter to simulate annual litter fall. Thereafter, we assessed the effect of extreme weather events on microbial community structure by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. In addition, we analyzed the 13C incorporation into bulk soil, microbial biomass and PLFA of the organic horizon and the mineral soil up to 10 cm. Additionally respired CO2 was quantified by closed chambers. Drought reduced the microbial biomass only in the organic horizon, while in the mineral soil the microbial abundance did not decrease compared to the control and irrigated plots. The decrease in microbial biomass in the organic horizon of the drought plots resulted also in a strongly reduced incorporation of litter derived C: Incorporation of litter 13C was a magnitude of three lower in the drought plots compared to the control and irrigation plots. Furthermore, after the drought period of 90 days the proportion of 13C in CO2 from soil respiration was reduced by about 95% on the drought plots compared to the control and irrigated plots. This is in agreement with the reduced degradation of litter derived C and thus a reduced C turnover under dry conditions. PLFA analysis showed high amounts of gram positive and gram negative bacterial as well as fungal fatty acids, whereas actinomycets and protozoa represented minor groups. An increased ratio of the cy-PLFA to (16:1w7c+18:1w7c) on the drought plots of the organic layer suggest that bacteria suffered from water stress. In comparison to other microbial groups only the fungi were not depleted by drought showing the advantage of hyphae in resisting unfavourable environmental conditions compared to the single cells organisms. Both, in the organic horizon and the mineral soil, most 13C was incorporated into the gram negative bacteria and into fungi, whereas actinomycetes and protozoa showed the lowest incorporation. This tendency is even enhanced for the drought plots. Gram positive bacteria showed a low incorporation of litter derived C despite their high abundance, which reflects their general preference for old SOM-derived C sources. Combining 13C-labeling and 13C partitioning in microbial and SOM pools provides a powerful method combination to understand the mechanisms of SOM turnover especially those which are microbially controlled. This will fundamentally improve our understanding of C pool dynamics under changing environmental conditions like extreme whether events.

Drought, Agriculture, and Labor: Understanding Drought Impacts and Vulnerability in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, C.

2015-12-01

Hazardous drought impacts are a product of not only the physical intensity of drought, but also the economic, social, and environmental characteristics of the region exposed to drought. Drought risk management requires understanding the complex links between the physical and human dimensions of drought. Yet, there is a research gap in identifying and explaining the socio-economic complexities of drought in the context of the first world, especially for economic and socially marginal groups who rely on seasonal and temporary jobs. This research uses the current drought in California as a case study to identify the socioeconomic impacts of drought on farmworker communities in California's San Joaquin Valley, with a specific focus on the relationship between drought and agricultural labor. Through both a narrative analysis of drought coverage in newspaper media, drought policy documents, and interviews with farmworkers, farmers, community based organizations, and government officials in the San Joaquin Valley, this research aims to highlight the different understandings and experiences of the human impacts of drought and drought vulnerability in order to better inform drought risk planning and policy.

Drought assessment using a TRMM-derived standardized precipitation index for the upper São Francisco River basin, Brazil.

PubMed

Santos, Celso Augusto Guimarães; Brasil Neto, Reginaldo Moura; Passos, Jacqueline Sobral de Araújo; da Silva, Richarde Marques

2017-06-01

In this work, the use of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for monitoring spatial and temporal drought variabilities in the Upper São Francisco River basin is investigated. Thus, the spatiotemporal behavior of droughts and cluster regions with similar behaviors is identified. As a result, the joint analysis of clusters, dendrograms, and the spatial distribution of SPI values proved to be a powerful tool in identifying homogeneous regions. The results showed that the northeast region of the basin has the lowest rainfall indices and the southwest region has the highest rainfall depths, and that the region has well-defined dry and rainy seasons from June to August and November to January, respectively. An analysis of the drought and rain conditions showed that the studied region was homogeneous and well-distributed; however, the quantity of extreme and severe drought events in short-, medium- and long-term analysis was higher than that expected in regions with high rainfall depths, particularly in the south/southwest and southeast areas. Thus, an alternative classification is proposed to characterize the drought, which spatially categorizes the drought type (short-, medium-, and long-term) according to the analyzed drought event type (extreme, severe, moderate, and mild).

Precursor conditions related to Zimbabwe's summer droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nangombe, Shingirai; Madyiwa, Simon; Wang, Jianhong

2018-01-01

Despite the increasing severity of droughts and their effects on Zimbabwe's agriculture, there are few tools available for predicting these droughts in advance. Consequently, communities and farmers are more exposed, and policy makers are always ill prepared for such. This study sought to investigate possible cycles and precursor meteorological conditions prior to drought seasons that could be used to predict impending droughts in Zimbabwe. The Single Z-Index was used to identify and grade drought years between 1951 and 2010 according to rainfall severity. Spectral analysis was used to reveal the cycles of droughts for possible use of these cycles for drought prediction. Composite analysis was used to investigate circulation and temperature anomalies associated with severe and extreme drought years. Results indicate that severe droughts are more highly correlated with circulation patterns and embedded weather systems in the Indian Ocean and equatorial Pacific Ocean than any other area. This study identified sea surface temperatures in the average period June to August, geopotential height and wind vector in July to September period, and air temperature in September to November period as precursors that can be used to predict a drought occurrence several months in advance. Therefore, in addition to sea surface temperature, which was identified through previous research for predicting Zimbabwean droughts, the other parameters identified in this study can aid in drought prediction. Drought cycles were established at 20-, 12.5-, 3.2-, and 2.7-year cycles. The spectral peaks, 12.5, 3.2, and 2.7, had a similar timescale with the luni-solar tide, El Niño Southern Oscillation and Quasi Biennial Oscillation, respectively, and hence, occurrence of these phenomena have a possibility of indicating when the next drought might be.

Assessing the utility of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought based on soil moisture in Chongqing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hui; Wu, Wei; Liu, Hong-Bin

2018-04-01

Numerous drought indices have been developed to analyze and monitor drought condition, but they are region specific and limited by various climatic conditions. In southwest China, summer drought mainly occurs from June to September, causing destructive and profound impact on agriculture, society, and ecosystems. The current study assesses the availability of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought in this area at 5-day scale. The drought indices include the relative moisture index ( M), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the composite index of meteorological drought (CIspi), and the improved composite index of meteorological drought (CIwap). Long-term daily precipitation and temperature from 1970 to 2014 are used to calculate 30-day M ( M 30), SPI (SPI30), SPEI (SPEI30), 90-day SPEI (SPEI90), CIspi, and CIwap. The 5-day soil moisture observations from 2010 to 2013 are applied to assess the performance of these drought indices. Correlation analysis, overall accuracy, and kappa coefficient are utilized to investigate the relationships between soil moisture and drought indices. Correlation analysis indicates that soil moisture is well correlated with CIwap, SPEI30, M 30, SPI30, and CIspi except SPEI90. Moreover, drought classifications identified by M 30 are in agreement with that of the observed soil moisture. The results show that M 30 based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration is an appropriate indicator for monitoring drought condition at a finer scale in the study area. According to M 30, summer drought during 1970-2014 happened in each year and showed a slightly upward tendency in recent years.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Iverson, Louis; Woodall, Christopher W; Allen, Craig D; Bell, David M; Bragg, Don C; D'Amato, Anthony W; Davis, Frank W; Hersh, Michelle H; Ibanez, Ines; Jackson, Stephen T; Matthews, Stephen; Pederson, Neil; Peters, Matthew; Schwartz, Mark W; Waring, Kristen M; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-07-01

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How Has Human-induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Aghakouchak, A.; Livneh, B.; Quan, X. W.; Eischeid, J. K.

2015-12-01

The current California drought has cast a heavy burden on statewide agriculture and water resources, further exacerbated by concurrent extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, industrial-era global radiative forcing brings into question the role of long-term climate change on CA drought. How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? Here, observations and model experimentation are applied to characterize this drought employing metrics that synthesize drought duration, cumulative precipitation deficit, and soil moisture depletion. The model simulations show that increases in radiative forcing since the late 19th Century induces both increased annual precipitation and increased surface temperature over California, consistent with prior model studies and with observed long-term change. As a result, there is no material difference in the frequency of droughts defined using bivariate indicators of precipitation and near-surface (10-cm) soil moisture, because shallow soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased evaporation driven by warming, which compensates the increase in the precipitation. However, when using soil moisture within a deep root zone layer (1-m) as co-variate, droughts become less frequent because deep soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased precipitation. The results illustrate the different land surface responses to anthropogenic forcing that are relevant for near-surface moisture exchange and for root zone moisture availability. The latter is especially relevant for agricultural impacts as the deep layer dictates moisture availability for plants, trees, and many crops. The results thus indicate the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less likely, and that the current severe impacts of drought on California's agriculture has not been substantially caused by long-term climate changes.

Structural, functional and evolutionary characterization of major drought transcription factors families in maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittal, Shikha; Banduni, Pooja; Mallikarjuna, Mallana G.; Rao, Atmakuri R.; Jain, Prashant A.; Dash, Prasanta K.; Thirunavukkarasu, Nepolean

2018-05-01

Drought is one of the major threats to maize production. In order to improve the production and to breed tolerant hybrids, understanding the genes and regulatory mechanisms during drought stress is important. Transcription factors (TFs) play a major role in gene regulation and many TFs have been identified in response to drought stress. In our experiment, a set of 15 major TF families comprising 1436 genes was structurally and functionally characterized using in-silico tools and a gene expression assay. All 1436 genes were mapped on 10 chromosome of maize. The functional annotation indicated the involvement of these genes in ABA signaling, ROS scavenging, photosynthesis, stomatal regulation, and sucrose metabolism. Duplication was identified as the primary force in divergence and expansion of TF families. Phylogenetic relationship was developed individually for each TF family as well as combined TF families. Phylogenetic analysis grouped the TF family of genes into TF-specific and mixed groups. Phylogenetic analysis of genes belonging to various TF families suggested that the origin of TFs occurred in the lineage of maize evolution. Gene structure analysis revealed that more number of genes were intron-rich as compared to intronless genes. Drought-responsive CRE’s such as ABREA, ABREB, DRE1 and DRECRTCOREAT have been identified. Expression and interaction analyses identified leaf-specific bZIP TF, GRMZM2G140355, as a potential contributor toward drought tolerance in maize. We also analyzed protein-protein interaction network of 269 drought-responsive genes belonging to different drought-related TFs. The information generated on structural and functional characteristics, expression and interaction of the drought-related TF families will be useful to decipher the drought tolerance mechanisms and to derive drought-tolerant genotypes in maize.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

PubMed Central

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L.; Clark, Douglas B.; Arnell, Nigel W.; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M.; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M.; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty. PMID:24344266

Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970–2007

PubMed Central

Hanigan, Ivan C.; Butler, Colin D.; Kokic, Philip N.; Hutchinson, Michael F.

2012-01-01

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change. PMID:22891347

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

PubMed

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L; Clark, Douglas B; Arnell, Nigel W; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

A 3,000-year quantitative drought record derived from XRF element data from a south Texas playa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livsey, D. N.; Simms, A.; Hangsterfer, A.; Nisbet, R.; DeWitt, R.

2013-12-01

Recent droughts throughout the central United States highlight the need for a better understanding of the past frequency and severity of drought occurrence. Current records of past drought for the south Texas coast are derived from tree-ring data that span approximately the last 900 years before present (BP). In this study we utilize a supervised learning routine to create a transfer function between X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) derived elemental data from Laguna Salada, Texas core LS10-02 to a locally derived tree-ring drought record. From this transfer function the 900 BP tree-ring drought record was extended to 3,000 BP. The supervised learning routine was trained on the first 100 years of XRF element data and tree-ring drought data to create the transfer function and training data set output. The model was then projected from the XRF elemental data for the next 800 years to create a deployed data set output and to test the transfer function parameters. The coefficients of determination between the model output and observed values are 0.77 and 0.70 for the 100-year training data set and 900-year deployed data set respectively. Given the relatively high coefficients of determination for both the training data set and deployed data set we interpret the model parameters are fairly robust and that a high-resolution drought record can be derived from the XRF element data. These results indicate that XRF element data can be used as a quantitative tool to reconstruct past drought records.

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Quantifying water requirements of riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: Implications for the management of environmental flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doody, Tanya M.; Colloff, Matthew J.; Davies, Micah; Koul, Vijay; Benyon, Richard G.; Nagler, Pamela L.

2015-01-01

Water resource development and drought have altered river flow regimes, increasing average flood return intervals across floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, causing health declines in riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forests and woodlands. Environmental flow allocations helped to alleviate water stress during the recent Millennium Drought (1997–2010), however, quantification of the flood frequency required to support healthy E. camaldulensis communities is still needed. We quantified water requirements of E. camaldulensis for two years across a flood gradient (trees inundated at frequencies of 1:2, 1:5 and 1:10 years) at Yanga National Park, New South Wales to help inform management decision-making and design of environmental flows. Sap flow, evaporative losses and soil moisture measurements were used to determine transpiration, evapotranspiration and plant-available soil water before and after flooding. A formula was developed using plant-available soil water post-flooding and average annual rainfall, to estimate maintenance time of soil water reserves in each flood frequency zone. Results indicated that soil water reserves could sustain 1:2 and 1:5 trees for 15 months and six years, respectively. Trees regulated their transpiration rates, allowing them to persist within their flood frequency zone, and showed reduction in active sapwood area and transpiration rates when flood frequencies exceeded 1:2 years. A leaf area index of 0.5 was identified as a potential threshold indicator of severe drought stress. Our results suggest environmental water managers may have greater flexibility to adaptively manage floodplains in order to sustain E. camaldulensis forests and woodlands than has been appreciated hitherto.

Silver fir and Douglas fir are more tolerant to extreme droughts than Norway spruce in south-western Germany.

PubMed

Vitali, Valentina; Büntgen, Ulf; Bauhus, Jürgen

2017-12-01

Improving our understanding of the potential of forest adaptation is an urgent task in the light of predicted climate change. Long-term alternatives for susceptible yet economically important tree species such as Norway spruce (Picea abies) are required, if the frequency and intensity of summer droughts will continue to increase. Although Silver fir (Abies alba) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) have both been described as drought-tolerant species, our understanding of their growth responses to drought extremes is still limited. Here, we use a dendroecological approach to assess the resistance, resilience, and recovery of these important central Europe to conifer species the exceptional droughts in 1976 and 2003. A total of 270 trees per species were sampled in 18 managed mixed-species stands along an altitudinal gradient (400-1200 m a.s.l.) at the western slopes of the southern and central Black Forest in southwest Germany. While radial growth in all species responded similarly to the 1976 drought, Norway spruce was least resistant and resilient to the 2003 summer drought. Silver fir showed the overall highest resistance to drought, similarly to Douglas fir, which exhibited the widest growth rings. Silver fir trees from lower elevations were more drought prone than trees at higher elevations. Douglas fir and Norway spruce, however, revealed lower drought resilience at higher altitudes. Although the 1976 and 2003 drought extremes were quite different, Douglas fir maintained consistently the highest radial growth. Although our study did not examine population-level responses, it clearly indicates that Silver fir and Douglas fir are generally more resistant and resilient to previous drought extremes and are therefore suitable alternatives to Norway spruce; Silver fir more so at higher altitudes. Cultivating these species instead of Norway spruce will contribute to maintaining a high level of productivity across many Central European mountain forests under future climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adaptation to high temperature mitigates the impact of water deficit during combined heat and drought stress in C3 sunflower and C4 maize varieties with contrasting drought tolerance.

PubMed

Killi, Dilek; Bussotti, Filippo; Raschi, Antonio; Haworth, Matthew

2017-02-01

Heat and drought stress frequently occur together, however, their impact on plant growth and photosynthesis (P N ) is unclear. The frequency, duration and severity of heat and drought stress events are predicted to increase in the future, having severe implications for agricultural productivity and food security. To assess the impact on plant gas exchange, physiology and morphology we grew drought tolerant and sensitive varieties of C3 sunflower (Helianthus annuus) and C4 maize (Zea mays) under conditions of elevated temperature for 4 weeks prior to the imposition of water deficit. The negative impact of temperature on P N was most apparent in sunflower. The drought tolerant sunflower retained ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RubisCO) activity under heat stress to a greater extent than its drought sensitive counterpart. Maize exhibited no varietal difference in response to increased temperature. In contrast to previous studies, where a sudden rise in temperature induced an increase in stomatal conductance (G s ), we observed no change or a reduction in G s with elevated temperature, which alongside lower leaf area mitigated the impact of drought at the higher temperature. The drought tolerant sunflower and maize varieties exhibited greater investment in root-systems, allowing greater uptake of the available soil water. Elevated temperatures associated with heat-waves will have profound negative impacts on crop growth in both sunflower and maize, but the deleterious effect on P N was less apparent in the drought tolerant sunflower and both maize varieties. As C4 plants generally exhibit water use efficiency (WUE) and resistance to heat stress, selection on the basis of tolerance to heat and drought stress would be more beneficial to the yields of C3 crops cultivated in drought prone semi-arid regions. © 2016 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

Dendrochronological assessment of drought severity indices for Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKee, A.; Aulenbach, B. T.

2015-12-01

Quantifying the relation between drought severity and tree growth is important to predict future growth rates as climate change effects the frequency and severity of future droughts. Two commonly used metrics of drought severity are the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). These indices are often calculated from proximal weather station data and therefore may not be very accurate at the local watershed scale. The accuracy of these commonly used measures of drought severity was compared to a recently developed, locally calibrated model of water limitation based on the difference between potential and actual evapotranspiration (ETDIFF). Relative accuracies of the drought indices were assessed on the strength of correlations with a 20-year tree-ring index chronology (1986-2006) developed from 22 loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) trees in water-limited landscape positions at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW), a 41-hectare forested watershed located in north-central Georgia. We used SPI and PDSI index values from the weather station located at the Atlanta Airport, approximately 36 kilometers from PMRW. ETDIFF was calculated based on precipitation, temperature, runoff, and solar radiation data collected at PMRW. Annual index values for all three drought indices were calculated as the mean value over the growing season (May to September). All three indices had significant Pearson correlations with the tree-ring index (p = 0.044, 0.007, 0.002 for SPI, PDSI, and ETDIFF, respectively). The ETDIFF method had the strongest correlation (R2 = 0.40) compared to SPI and PDSI results (R2 = 0.19 and 0.32, respectively). Results suggest SPI and PDSI provided a general measure of drought conditions, however, the locally calibrated model of water limitation appears to measure drought severity more accurately. Future studies on the ecological effects of drought may benefit from adopting ETDIFF as a measure of drought severity.

Microarray analysis and scale-free gene networks identify candidate regulators in drought-stressed roots of loblolly pine (P. taeda L.)

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Global transcriptional analysis of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is challenging due to limited molecular tools. PtGen2, a 26,496 feature cDNA microarray, was fabricated and used to assess drought-induced gene expression in loblolly pine propagule roots. Statistical analysis of differential expression and weighted gene correlation network analysis were used to identify drought-responsive genes and further characterize the molecular basis of drought tolerance in loblolly pine. Results Microarrays were used to interrogate root cDNA populations obtained from 12 genotype × treatment combinations (four genotypes, three watering regimes). Comparison of drought-stressed roots with roots from the control treatment identified 2445 genes displaying at least a 1.5-fold expression difference (false discovery rate = 0.01). Genes commonly associated with drought response in pine and other plant species, as well as a number of abiotic and biotic stress-related genes, were up-regulated in drought-stressed roots. Only 76 genes were identified as differentially expressed in drought-recovered roots, indicating that the transcript population can return to the pre-drought state within 48 hours. Gene correlation analysis predicts a scale-free network topology and identifies eleven co-expression modules that ranged in size from 34 to 938 members. Network topological parameters identified a number of central nodes (hubs) including those with significant homology (E-values ≤ 2 × 10-30) to 9-cis-epoxycarotenoid dioxygenase, zeatin O-glucosyltransferase, and ABA-responsive protein. Identified hubs also include genes that have been associated previously with osmotic stress, phytohormones, enzymes that detoxify reactive oxygen species, and several genes of unknown function. Conclusion PtGen2 was used to evaluate transcriptome responses in loblolly pine and was leveraged to identify 2445 differentially expressed genes responding to severe drought stress in roots. Many of the genes identified are known to be up-regulated in response to osmotic stress in pine and other plant species and encode proteins involved in both signal transduction and stress tolerance. Gene expression levels returned to control values within a 48-hour recovery period in all but 76 transcripts. Correlation network analysis indicates a scale-free network topology for the pine root transcriptome and identifies central nodes that may serve as drivers of drought-responsive transcriptome dynamics in the roots of loblolly pine. PMID:21609476

Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment (DroughtPEX_China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yaohui

2017-04-01

Drought is one of the most common and frequent nature disasters in the world, particularly in China under the continental monsoonal climate with great variation. About thirty percent of economic loss caused by natural disasters is contributed by droughts in China, which is by far the most damaging weather disasters because of its long duration and extensive hazard areas. Droughts not only have a serious impact on the agriculture, water resources, ecology, natural environment, but also seriously affect the socio-economic such as human health, energy and transportation. Worsely, under the background of climate change, droughts in show increases in frequency, duration and scope in many places around the world, particularly northern China. Nowadays, droughts have aroused extensive concern of the scientists, governments and international community, and became one of the important scientific issues in geoscience research. However, most of researches on droughts in China so far were focused on the causes or regulars of one type of droughts (the atmosphere, agriculture or hydrological) from the perspective of the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Few of them considered a whole cycle of the drought-forming process from atmosphere-land interaction to agricultural/ecological one in terms of the land-atmosphere interaction; meanwhile, the feedback mechanism with the drought and land-atmosphere interaction is still unclear as well. All of them is because of lack of the relevant comprehensive observation experiment. "Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment" (DroughtPEX_China)is just launched in this requirement and background. DroughtPEX_China is supported by Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological) of China (Grant No.GYHY201506001)—"Drought Meteorology Scientific Research Project—the disaster-causing process and mechanism of drought in northern China". This project aims to establish a complete observation &experiment system for droughts particularly over the arid and semi-arid regions in northern China. Relying on the existing meteorological observation network and experimental bases, the DroughtPEX_China implemented interdisciplinary, comprehensive and systemic drought-scientific experiment including the routine observation, intensive and special observation, and the artificially field control test for the drought forming and reducing. Such large observation &experiment will promote a large step or theoretical breakthrough on the knowledge of the complex dynamic process for the formation and development of drought disasters, the mechanism of the water-energy cycle in the atmosphere-soil-vegetation on multi-scales, and the interrelationship in the atmosphere, agriculture and hydrological droughts. The ultimate purpose of DroughtPEX_China is to make great progress on the technology of accurate drought monitoring, risk assessment and early warning. This paper will introduce the Drought PEX_China with the scientific goal, experiment design and layout, preliminary results, information sharing, and its promoting role on international cooperation of drought scientific research. Key words: Disaster-causing process of drought; Observation & experiment; Northern China

Role of large-scale atmospheric processes in variability of droughts in Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khokhlov, Valeriy; Yermolenko, Nataliia

2015-04-01

We used the multiscalar drought index - standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) - to investigate the variability of droughts during the period of 1951-2010. The index allows considering the meteorological, agriculture and hydrological droughts. In this study, SPEI was calculated using the 0.5 degree grid data on the temperature and precipitation. The analysis was performed for the time series of four sites that are characteristic for the different parts of Ukraine - Chernihiv (Northern Ukraine), Odessa (Southern Ukraine), Uzhhorod (Western Ukraine), and Luhansk (Eastern Ukraine). The analysis revealed the periods with moistest and driest conditions. For the all sites, the moistest years were registered in the end of 1970s - start of 1980s. Moreover, both the number and intensity of droughts increase significantly since 1980, especially for the Southern Ukraine. During the 2006-2009, the most extreme and long drought was observed in the Odessa region. The analysis also showed that hydrological droughts begin with some delay from the meteorological ones, and have maximal duration. We used CUSUM method in order to detect specific years, when the significant change points occurred in the time series of droughts. This method also detected the start of 1980s as the years of transition from the moist to the dry conditions. The cross-wavelet transform was applied to reveal a connection between the droughts in Ukraine and teleconnection patterns in the North Atlantics. The analysis showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a maximal effect on the droughts in Ukraine. The anti-phase relation is registered for the joint fluctuations with the periods 2-3 years and is most prominent in the Southern Ukraine. On the contrary, the NAO has a small impact on the Northern Ukraine. This fact can be explained by the orientation of main storm tracks for positive and negative phases of the NAO. The importance of long term planning of water management activities, varying from yearly reservoir rule curve determination to advice on crop selection given expected drought or flooding, increases as water becomes more scarce and event become more extreme. This work examines potential predictors for droughts in Ukriane to be used in optimization of long term planning.

Alternating flood and drought hazards in the Drava Plain, Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lóczy, Dénes; Dezsö, József; Gyenizse, Péter; Ortmann-Ajkai, Adrienne

2016-04-01

Our research project covers the assessment of archive data and monitoring present-day water availability in the floodplain of the Hungarian Drava River. Historically flood hazard has been prevalent in the area. Recently, however, flood and drought hazards occur with equal frequency. Potential floodwater storage is defined from the analyses of soil conditions (grain size, porosity, water conductivity etc.) and GIS-based volumetric estimations of storage capacities in oxbows (including communication with groundwater). With the remarkable rate of river channel incision (2.4 m per century) and predictable climate change trends (increased annual mean temperature and decreased summer precipitation), the growing frequency and intensification of drought hazard is expected. For the assessment of drought hazard the impacts of hydrometeorological events, groundwater table dynamics and capillary rise are modelled, the water demands of natural vegetation and agricultural crops are studied. The project is closely linked to the ongoing Old Drava Programme, a comprehensive government project, which envisions floodplain rehabilitation through major transformations in water governance and land use of the region, and has numerous implications for regional development. Authors are grateful for financial support from the Hungarian National Scientific Research Fund (OTKA, contacts nos K 104552 and K 108755) as well as from the Visegrad Fund (31210058). The contribution is dedicated to the 650th anniversary of the foundation of the University of Pécs, Hungary.

Climate Change and Forest Disturbances

Treesearch

V. H. Dale; L. A. Joyce; S. McNulty; R. P. Neilson; M. P. Ayres; M. D. Flannigan; P. J. Hanson; L. C. Irland; A. E. Lugo; C. J. Peterson; D. Simberloff; F. J. Swanson; B. J. Stocks; B. M. Wotton

2001-01-01

CLIMATE CHANGE CAN AFFECT FORESTS BY ALTERING THE FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, DURATION, AND TIMING OF FIRE, DROUGHT, INTRODUCED SPECIES, INSECT AND PATHOGEN OUTBREAKS, HURRICANES, WINDSTORMS, ICE STORMS, OR LANDSLIDES

A Newly Global Drought Index Product Basing on Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index Percentile Using Severity-Area-Duration Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinlu; Lu, Hui; Lyu, Haobo

2017-04-01

Drought is one of the typical natural disasters around the world, and it has also been an important climatic event particular under the climate change. Assess and monitor drought accurately is crucial for addressing climate change and formulating corresponding policies. Several drought indices have been developed and widely used in regional and global scale to present and monitor drought, which integrate datasets such as precipitation, soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, evapotranspiration that deprived from land surface models or remotely sensed datasets. Vegetation is a prominent component of ecosystem that modulates the water and energy flux between land surface and atmosphere, and thus can be regarded as one of the drought indicators especially for agricultural drought. Leaf area index (LAI), as an important parameter that quantifying the terrestrial vegetation conditions, can provide a new way for drought monitoring. Drought characteristics can be described as severity, area and duration. Andreadis et al. has constructed a severity-area-duration (SAD) algorithm to reflect the spatial patterns of droughts and their dynamics over time, which is a progress of drought analysis. In our study, a newly drought index product was developed using the LAI percentile (LAIpct) SAD algorithm. The remotely sensed global GLASS (Global LAnd Surface Satellite) LAI ranging from 2001-2011 has been used as the basic data. Data was normalized for each time phase to eliminate the phenology effect, and then the percentile of the normalized data was calculated as the SAD input. 20% was set as the drought threshold, and a clustering algorithm was used to identify individual drought events for each time step. Actual drought events were identified when considering multiple clusters merge to form a larger drought or a drought event breaks up into multiple small droughts according to the distance of drought centers and the overlapping drought area. Severity, duration and area were recorded for each actual drought event. Finally, we utilized the existing DSI drought index product for comparison. LAIpct drought index can detect both short-term and long-term drought events. In the last decades, most of the droughts at global scale are short-term that less than 1 year, and the longest drought event lasts for 3 year. The LAIpct drought area percentage consist well with DSI, and according to the drought severity classification of United States Drought Monitor system, we found the 20% LAIpct corresponds to moderate drought, 15% LAIpct corresponds to severe drought, and 10% LAIpct corresponds to extreme drought. For some typical drought event, we found the LAIpct drought spatial patterns agree well with DSI, and from the aspect of temporal consistency, LAIpct seems smoother and fitter to the reality than DSI product. Although the short period LAIpct drought index product hinders the analysis of global climate change to some extent, it provides a new way to better monitor the agricultural drought.

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Wood, Tana E.; Baran, Richard

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however, the feedback of any shift in functional potential on ecosystem properties related to carbon cycling are poorly understood. Here we show that drought-induced changes in microbial functional diversity and activity shape, and are in turn shaped by, the composition of dissolved and soil-associated carbon. We also demonstrate that a shift in microbial functional traits that favor the productionmore » of hygroscopic compounds alter the efflux of carbon dioxide following soil rewetting. Under drought the composition of the dissolved organic carbon pool changed in a manner consistent with a microbial metabolic response. We hypothesize that this microbial ecophysiological response to changing soil moisture elevates the intracellular carbon demand stimulating extracellular enzyme production, that prompts the observed decline in more complex carbon compounds (e.g., cellulose and lignin). Furthermore, a metabolic response to drought appeared to condition (biologically and physically) the soil, notably through the production of polysaccharides, particularly in experimental plots that had been pre-exposed to a short-term drought. This hysteretic response, in addition to an observed drought-related decline in phosphorus concentration, may have been responsible for a comparatively modest CO 2 efflux following wet-up in drought plots relative to control plots.« less

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

PubMed Central

Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Wood, Tana E.; Baran, Richard; Hao, Zhao; Ye, Zaw; Bowen, Ben P.; Lim, Hsiao Chien; Nico, Peter S.; Holman, Hoi-Ying; Gilbert, Benjamin; Silver, Whendee L.; Northen, Trent R.; Brodie, Eoin L.

2016-01-01

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however, the feedback of any shift in functional potential on ecosystem properties related to carbon cycling are poorly understood. Here we show that drought-induced changes in microbial functional diversity and activity shape, and are in turn shaped by, the composition of dissolved and soil-associated carbon. We also demonstrate that a shift in microbial functional traits that favor the production of hygroscopic compounds alter the efflux of carbon dioxide following soil rewetting. Under drought the composition of the dissolved organic carbon pool changed in a manner consistent with a microbial metabolic response. We hypothesize that this microbial ecophysiological response to changing soil moisture elevates the intracellular carbon demand stimulating extracellular enzyme production, that prompts the observed decline in more complex carbon compounds (e.g., cellulose and lignin). Furthermore, a metabolic response to drought appeared to condition (biologically and physically) the soil, notably through the production of polysaccharides, particularly in experimental plots that had been pre-exposed to a short-term drought. This hysteretic response, in addition to an observed drought-related decline in phosphorus concentration, may have been responsible for a comparatively modest CO2 efflux following wet-up in drought plots relative to control plots. PMID:27014243

Forecasts of Agricultural Drought in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; Gunda, T.; Hornberger, G. M.

2015-12-01

As the most frequent natural disaster in Sri Lanka, drought greatly affects crop production and livelihoods. Over half of all agricultural crop damage in Sri Lanka is currently due to drought; the frequency and severity of drought in the country is only expected to increase with the changing climate. Previous work indicates that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are capable of capturing agricultural drought patterns (between 1881-2010) in the island nation. In this work, PDSI and SPI from 13 long-term meteorological stations will be projected into the future using a combination of artificial neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average models. The impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (such as the Niño 3.4 index, a measure of sea surface temperature) and lead times on projection accuracy will also be explored. Model projections will be compared to weather data since 2010 to determine if the 2014 drought could have been forecasted using these methods. Since agricultural systems are strongly influenced by both natural and human systems, it is important to frame these physical findings within a social context. This work is part of an interdisciplinary project that assesses the perceptions of and adaptations to drought by rice farmers in Sri Lanka; disciplines represented in the group include hydrology, social psychology, ethnography, policy, and behavioral economics. Insights from the diverse research perspectives within the group will be drawn upon to highlight the social implications of the physical results.

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

DOE PAGES

Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Wood, Tana E.; Baran, Richard; ...

2016-03-15

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however, the feedback of any shift in functional potential on ecosystem properties related to carbon cycling are poorly understood. Here we show that drought-induced changes in microbial functional diversity and activity shape, and are in turn shaped by, the composition of dissolved and soil-associated carbon. We also demonstrate that a shift in microbial functional traits that favor the productionmore » of hygroscopic compounds alter the efflux of carbon dioxide following soil rewetting. Under drought the composition of the dissolved organic carbon pool changed in a manner consistent with a microbial metabolic response. We hypothesize that this microbial ecophysiological response to changing soil moisture elevates the intracellular carbon demand stimulating extracellular enzyme production, that prompts the observed decline in more complex carbon compounds (e.g., cellulose and lignin). Furthermore, a metabolic response to drought appeared to condition (biologically and physically) the soil, notably through the production of polysaccharides, particularly in experimental plots that had been pre-exposed to a short-term drought. This hysteretic response, in addition to an observed drought-related decline in phosphorus concentration, may have been responsible for a comparatively modest CO 2 efflux following wet-up in drought plots relative to control plots.« less

Leaf Responses to Mild Drought Stress in Natural Variants of Arabidopsis1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Clauw, Pieter; Coppens, Frederik; De Beuf, Kristof; Dhondt, Stijn; Van Daele, Twiggy; Maleux, Katrien; Storme, Veronique; Clement, Lieven; Gonzalez, Nathalie; Inzé, Dirk

2015-01-01

Although the response of plants exposed to severe drought stress has been studied extensively, little is known about how plants adapt their growth under mild drought stress conditions. Here, we analyzed the leaf and rosette growth response of six Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) accessions originating from different geographic regions when exposed to mild drought stress. The automated phenotyping platform WIWAM was used to impose stress early during leaf development, when the third leaf emerges from the shoot apical meristem. Analysis of growth-related phenotypes showed differences in leaf development between the accessions. In all six accessions, mild drought stress reduced both leaf pavement cell area and number without affecting the stomatal index. Genome-wide transcriptome analysis (using RNA sequencing) of early developing leaf tissue identified 354 genes differentially expressed under mild drought stress in the six accessions. Our results indicate the existence of a robust response over different genetic backgrounds to mild drought stress in developing leaves. The processes involved in the overall mild drought stress response comprised abscisic acid signaling, proline metabolism, and cell wall adjustments. In addition to these known severe drought-related responses, 87 genes were found to be specific for the response of young developing leaves to mild drought stress. PMID:25604532

Identification and characterization of phospholipase D and its association with drought susceptibilities in peanut (Arachis hypogaea).

PubMed

Guo, B Z; Xu, G; Cao, Y G; Holbrook, C C; Lynch, R E

2006-02-01

Preharvest aflatoxin contamination has been identified by the peanut industry as a serious issue in food safety and human health because of the carcinogenic toxicity. Drought stress is the most important environmental factor exacerbating Aspergillus infection and aflatoxin contamination in peanut. The development of drought-tolerant peanut cultivars could reduce aflatoxin contamination and would represent a major advance in the peanut industry. In this study, we identified a novel PLD gene in peanut (Arachis hypogaea), encoding a putative phospholipase D (PLD, EC 3.1.4.4). The completed cDNA sequence was obtained by using the consensus-degenerated hybrid oligonucleotide primer strategy. The deduced amino acid sequence shows high identity with known PLDs, and has similar conserved domains. The PLD gene expression under drought stress has been studied using four peanut lines: Tifton 8 and A13 (both drought tolerant) and Georgia Green (moderate) and PI 196754 (drought sensitive). Northern analysis showed that PLD gene expression was induced faster by drought stress in the drought-sensitive lines than the drought tolerance lines. Southern analysis showed that cultivated peanut has multiple copies (3 to 5 copies) of the PLD gene. These results suggest that peanut PLD may be involved in drought sensitivity and tolerance responses. Peanut PLD gene expression may be useful as a tool in germplasm screening for drought tolerance.

Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Massey, Neil; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Droughts and related water scarcity can have large impacts on societies and consist of interactions between a number of natural and human factors. Meteorological conditions are usually the first natural trigger of droughts, and climate change is expected to impact these and thereby the frequency and intensity of the events. However, extreme events such as droughts are, by definition, rare, and accurately quantifying the risk related to such events is therefore difficult. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying the risks associated with droughts in the UK under present and future conditions. To do so, a large number of drought events, from climate model simulations downscaled at 25km over Europe, are being fed into hydrological models of various complexity and used for the estimation of drought risk associated with human and natural systems, including impacts on the economy, industry, agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and socio-cultural aspects. Here, we present the hydro-meteorological drought event set that has been produced by weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model (RCM). Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future horizons (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally consistent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. The drought event set for use in impact studies is constructed by extracting sequences of dry conditions from these model runs, leading to several thousand drought events. In addition to describing methodological and validation aspects of the synthetic drought event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK, its meteorological drivers, and how it can be expected to change in the future. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Projected changes in the evolution of drought assessed with the SPEI over the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potop, V.; Boroneana, C.; Stepanek, P.; Skalak, P.; Mozny, M.

2012-04-01

In previous studies the spatial and temporal evolution of drought events in the Czech Republic were extensively analyzed by comparing results from the most advanced drought indices (e.g. the SPI and SPEI), which take into account the role of antecedent conditions in quantifying drought severity. In the present study, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was adopted to assess and project drought characteristics in the Czech Republic based on the regional climate model ALADIN-Climate/CZ simulated data. The simulations were conducted at high resolution (10km) for the current (1961-2000) and two future climates (2021-2050 and 2071-2100). First, the observed data of air temperature and precipitation totals was transferred into a regular grid of ALADIN-Climate/CZ model. The bias correction was applied on the scenario runs. The bias correction method is based on variable correction using individual percentiles whose relationship is derived from observations and control RCM simulation. The SPEI was calculated based on observed monthly data of mean temperature and precipitation totals for the period 1961-1990, as reference period, and for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, as future climates under A1B SRES scenario. The SPEI were calculated with various lags, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months because the drought at these time scales is relevant for agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic impact, respectively. The study refers at the warm season of the year (April to September). As in the case of observational study, we have identified three climatically homogeneous regions, corresponding to the altitudes below 400 m, between 401 and 700 m and, above 700 m. For these three regions the frequency distribution of the SPEI values in 7 classes of drought category (%) were calculated based on grid point data falling in each region, both for the observed data and scenario runs. The paper presents the projected changes in frequency distribution of SPEI at various time scales, in intensity, duration and spatial distribution of drought over the territory of the Czech Republic under A1B scenario for the middle and the end of 21st century. We gratefully acknowledge the support of the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports for projects OC10010.

Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firoz, A. B. M.; Nauditt, Alexandra; Fink, Manfred; Ribbe, Lars

2018-01-01

Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in central Vietnam and other regions of South-east Asia, severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) River basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB River basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity, and frequency were analysed for different timescales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. We found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the Vu Gia river supplying water to the city of Da Nang and large irrigation systems especially in the dry season. We conclude that the calibrated model set-up provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.

Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

PubMed

Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

2016-03-01

The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology in other areas is expected to lead to better preparedness and mitigation-oriented management of droughts.

Including hydrological self-regulating processes in peatland models: Effects on peatmoss drought projections.

PubMed

Nijp, Jelmer J; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats B; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M

2017-02-15

The water content of the topsoil is one of the key factors controlling biogeochemical processes, greenhouse gas emissions and biosphere - atmosphere interactions in many ecosystems, particularly in northern peatlands. In these wetland ecosystems, the water content of the photosynthetic active peatmoss layer is crucial for ecosystem functioning and carbon sequestration, and is sensitive to future shifts in rainfall and drought characteristics. Current peatland models differ in the degree in which hydrological feedbacks are included, but how this affects peatmoss drought projections is unknown. The aim of this paper was to systematically test whether the level of hydrological detail in models could bias projections of water content and drought stress for peatmoss in northern peatlands using downscaled projections for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in the current (1991-2020) and future climate (2061-2090). We considered four model variants that either include or exclude moss (rain)water storage and peat volume change, as these are two central processes in the hydrological self-regulation of peatmoss carpets. Model performance was validated using field data of a peatland in northern Sweden. Including moss water storage as well as peat volume change resulted in a significant improvement of model performance, despite the extra parameters added. The best performance was achieved if both processes were included. Including moss water storage and peat volume change consistently reduced projected peatmoss drought frequency with >50%, relative to the model excluding both processes. Projected peatmoss drought frequency in the growing season was 17% smaller under future climate than current climate, but was unaffected by including the hydrological self-regulating processes. Our results suggest that ignoring these two fine-scale processes important in hydrological self-regulation of northern peatlands will have large consequences for projected climate change impact on ecosystem processes related to topsoil water content, such as greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of droughts and climate change on sinkhole occurrence. A case study from the evaporite karst of the Fluvia Valley, NE Spain.

PubMed

Linares, Rogelio; Roqué, Carles; Gutiérrez, Francisco; Zarroca, Mario; Carbonel, Domingo; Bach, Joan; Fabregat, Ivan

2017-02-01

This work introduces the concept that sinkhole frequency in some karst settings increases during drought periods. This conception is tested in a sector of the Fluvia River valley in NE Spain, where subsidence phenomena is related to the karstification of folded Eocene evaporite formations. In the discharge areas, the evaporites behave as confined aquifers affected by hypogene karstification caused by aggressive artesian flows coming form an underlying carbonate aquifer. A sinkhole inventory with chronological data has been constructed, revealing temporal clusters. Those clusters show a good correlation with drought periods, as revealed by precipitation, river discharge and piezometric data. This temporal association is particularly obvious for the last and current drought starting in 1998, which is the most intense of the record period (1940-present). Climatic projections based on recent studies foresee an intensification of the droughts in this sector of NE Spain, which could be accompanied by the enhancement of the sinkhole hazard and the associated risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An integrated and comparative approach towards identification, characterization and functional annotation of candidate genes for drought tolerance in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench).

PubMed

Woldesemayat, Adugna Abdi; Van Heusden, Peter; Ndimba, Bongani K; Christoffels, Alan

2017-12-22

Drought is the most disastrous abiotic stress that severely affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Understanding the biological basis of drought-regulated traits, requires identification and an in-depth characterization of genetic determinants using model organisms and high-throughput technologies. However, studies on drought tolerance have generally been limited to traditional candidate gene approach that targets only a single gene in a pathway that is related to a trait. In this study, we used sorghum, one of the model crops that is well adapted to arid regions, to mine genes and define determinants for drought tolerance using drought expression libraries and RNA-seq data. We provide an integrated and comparative in silico candidate gene identification, characterization and annotation approach, with an emphasis on genes playing a prominent role in conferring drought tolerance in sorghum. A total of 470 non-redundant functionally annotated drought responsive genes (DRGs) were identified using experimental data from drought responses by employing pairwise sequence similarity searches, pathway and interpro-domain analysis, expression profiling and orthology relation. Comparison of the genomic locations between these genes and sorghum quantitative trait loci (QTLs) showed that 40% of these genes were co-localized with QTLs known for drought tolerance. The genome reannotation conducted using the Program to Assemble Spliced Alignment (PASA), resulted in 9.6% of existing single gene models being updated. In addition, 210 putative novel genes were identified using AUGUSTUS and PASA based analysis on expression dataset. Among these, 50% were single exonic, 69.5% represented drought responsive and 5.7% were complete gene structure models. Analysis of biochemical metabolism revealed 14 metabolic pathways that are related to drought tolerance and also had a strong biological network, among categories of genes involved. Identification of these pathways, signifies the interplay of biochemical reactions that make up the metabolic network, constituting fundamental interface for sorghum defence mechanism against drought stress. This study suggests untapped natural variability in sorghum that could be used for developing drought tolerance. The data presented here, may be regarded as an initial reference point in functional and comparative genomics in the Gramineae family.

System robustness analysis for drought risk management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, D.; Bouwer, L.; Barnes, J.; Mens, M.; Obeysekera, J.

2015-12-01

Drought is a frequently returning natural hazard in Florida, with at least one severe drought to be expected every decade. These droughts have had many impacts such as loss of agricultural products, inadequate public water supply and salt water intrusion into freshwater aquifers. Furthermore, climate change projections for South Florida suggest that dry spells are likely to be more frequent and prolonged, with negative impacts on water supply management for all users. In this study a System Robustness Analysis was conducted in order to analyse the effectiveness of strategies to limit the socio-economic impact of droughts under climate change. System Robustness Analysis (SRA) aims to support decision making by quantifying how well a system, with and without additional measures, can remain functioning under a range of external disturbances. Two system characteristics add up to system robustness: Resistance is the ability to withstand disturbances without responding (zero impact), and resilience is the ability to recover from the response to a disturbance. SRA can help to provide insight into the sensitivity of a system to changing magnitudes of extreme weather events. A regional-scale hydrologic and water management model is used to simulate the effect of changing precipitation and evaporation forcing on agricultural and urban water supply and demand in South Florida. The complex water management operational rules including water use restrictions are simulated in the model. Based on model runs with a various climate scenarios, drought events with a wide range of severity are identified and for each event the socio-economic impacts are determined. Here, a drought is defined as a reduced streamflow in the upstream Kissimmee basin, which contributes most to Lake Okeechobee, the major surface water storage in the system. The drought severity is characterized by the maximum drought deficit volume. Drought impacts are analyzed for several users in Miami Dade County. From the relation between drought severity and drought impact the resistance and resilience of the system for hydrological droughts are found. This relation is investigated for an array of adaptation measures and strategies in order to find strategies that will effectively increase the system's ability to deal with future drought events.

Climatic context and ecological implications of summer fog decline in the coast redwood region

PubMed Central

Johnstone, James A.; Dawson, Todd E.

2010-01-01

Biogeographical, physiological, and paleoecological evidence suggests that the coast redwood [Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl.] is closely associated with the presence of summer marine fog along the Pacific coast of California. Here we present a novel record of summer fog frequency in the coast redwood region upon the basis of direct hourly measurements of cloud ceiling heights from 1951 to 2008. Our analysis shows that coastal summer fog frequency is a remarkably integrative measure of United States Pacific coastal climate, with strong statistical connections to the wind-driven upwelling system of the California Current and the broad ocean temperature pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By using a long-term index of daily maximum land temperatures, we infer a 33% reduction in fog frequency since the early 20th century. We present tree physiological data suggesting that coast redwood and other ecosystems along the United States west coast may be increasingly drought stressed under a summer climate of reduced fog frequency and greater evaporative demand. PMID:20160112

Climatic context and ecological implications of summer fog decline in the coast redwood region.

PubMed

Johnstone, James A; Dawson, Todd E

2010-03-09

Biogeographical, physiological, and paleoecological evidence suggests that the coast redwood [Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl.] is closely associated with the presence of summer marine fog along the Pacific coast of California. Here we present a novel record of summer fog frequency in the coast redwood region upon the basis of direct hourly measurements of cloud ceiling heights from 1951 to 2008. Our analysis shows that coastal summer fog frequency is a remarkably integrative measure of United States Pacific coastal climate, with strong statistical connections to the wind-driven upwelling system of the California Current and the broad ocean temperature pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By using a long-term index of daily maximum land temperatures, we infer a 33% reduction in fog frequency since the early 20th century. We present tree physiological data suggesting that coast redwood and other ecosystems along the United States west coast may be increasingly drought stressed under a summer climate of reduced fog frequency and greater evaporative demand.

Assessment of Drought Severity Techniques - A Historical Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panu, U. S.; Crinklaw, T.

2011-12-01

Droughts are natural phenomenon experienced by all nations across the globe. Drought inherently means a scarcity of water, which adversely affects various sectors of human socio-economic spectrum, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation, water supply, industry, recreation, navigation, fish production etc. The prime cause of droughts is the occurrence of less than optimal (below normal) precipitation, which has its origin to various natural reasons, the most important being the global climatic forcing. Droughts are also referred to as sustained and regionally extensive occurrences of below average water availability which invariably cultivate into environmental disasters. The evolution of a drought event is defined into four types; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Drought affects all aspects of societal systems irrespective of how it is defined. This has led to a wide range of studies conducted by meteorologists, ecologists, environmentalists, hydrologists, geologists and agricultural scientists in attempts to understand drought processes as required to analyze and predict the impacts of droughts. A conceptual definition, such as a shortage of water relied on by human activity, avoids quantification of a drought event. On the other hand, the purpose of an operational definition is to determine the beginning, termination, and severity of a drought event. The severity assessment of droughts is of primary importance for allocation and management of available water resources. The progression and impact of historical droughts in a region is helpful for developing relationships and techniques to investigate relevant characteristics of droughts. For optimum drought preparedness and mitigative responses, professional bodies need to provide information to private and government agencies in a manner that may also be understood by their employers, stakeholders and the general public. Drought indicators bridge this communication gap between all parties by the quantification of an extensive amount of meteorological and/or hydrological information in a simple and understandable manner. Each type of drought; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic has developed numerous drought indicators to deal with a variety of situations pertaining to the degree of drought severity. There exist over 80 drought indictors to effectively signify the degree of severity of a particular type of drought. The focus of this paper is to reassess the effectiveness of these drought indicators and to identify the most effective indicators in each type of drought. First, the paper discusses the key features of the drought indictors with a deconstruction of their vital components to enhance their understanding and applicability. Second, the paper identifies the caveats and limitations of each indicator in an effort for an effective analysis of droughts. This paper allows for enhanced certainty in the use of existing drought indictors and thus leads to optimized drought analysis, drought characterization and drought prediction. The paper also highlights potential opportunities for improvement within selected drought indicators.

Soil- and crop-dependent variation in correlation lag between precipitation and agricultural drought indices as predicted by the SWAP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Azin; Cloke, Hannah; Verhoef, Anne

2017-04-01

Droughts have a devastating impact on agriculture and economy. The risk of more frequent and more severe droughts is increasing due to global warming and certain anthropogenic activities. At the same time, the global population continues to rise and the need for sustainable food production is becoming more and more pressing. In light of this, drought prediction can be of great value; in the context of early warning, preparedness and mitigation of drought impacts. Prediction of meteorological drought is associated with uncertainties around precipitation variability. As meteorological drought propagates, it can transform into agricultural drought. Determination of the maximum correlation lag between precipitation and agricultural drought indices can be useful for prediction of agricultural drought. However, the influence of soil and crop type on the lag needs to be considered, which we explored using a 1-D Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer model (SWAP (http://www.swap.alterra.nl/), with the following configurations, all forced with ERA-Interim weather data (1979 to 2014): i) different crop types in the UK; ii) three generic soil types (clay, loam and sand) were considered. A Sobol sensitivity analysis was carried out (perturbing the SWAP model van Genuchten soil hydraulic parameters) to study the effect of soil type uncertainty on the water balance variables. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, a few variations of each soil type were selected. Agricultural drought indices including Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) were calculated. The maximum correlation lag between precipitation and these drought indices was calculated, and analysed in the context of crop and soil model parameters. The findings of this research can be useful to UK farming, by guiding government bodies such as the Environment Agency when issuing drought warnings and implementing drought measures.

The European Drought Observatory (EDO): Current State and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Jürgen; Sepulcre, Guadalupe; Magni, Diego; Valentini, Luana; Singleton, Andrew; Micale, Fabio; Barbosa, Paulo

2013-04-01

Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, developing combined indicators, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and testing options for medium-range probabilistic drought forecasting across Europe. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in the development of the system as well as an outlook on the future developments.

Effects of Climate Change on Indigenous Livelihoods: The Case of Recurrent Droughts among Nomadic Pastoralist of Southeastern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mwangi, M. N.; Desanker, P. V.

2006-12-01

Drought is the most injurious impact of climate change that decimates lives and hinders socioeconomic development in most rangelands of Kenya. Several scientific evidences indicate that global climate change will increase frequency and intensity of droughts. This will have important ramification for ecosystems and social systems in the rangelands of southeastern Kenya, and correctly so. These rangelands are fragile and degraded; and the inhabitants are mostly poverty-stricken. Nomadic pastoralism is the chief source of livelihood in this region; it relies on local natural pastures. Besides, pressures from land use change constitute an additional exposure, of nomadic pastoralism, to vulnerabilities of this climatic hazard. This region is highly prone to droughts; it is currently recovering from a devastating drought that started in early 2005 and terminated at the start this year. Most important, and like most societies in sub-Saharan Africa, inadequate adaptive capacity among nomadic pastoralists of Kenya, exacerbates deleterious impacts of drought. The livelihood of these pastoralists, therefore, stands to be destabilized. This study presents findings from an on-going research in Kajiado District of southeastern Kenya. Impacts of and adaptation strategies to recurrent and prolonged droughts among the nomadic Maasai pastoralist are presented. The study concludes with possible future scenarios of this form of pastoralism from which climate change actors can draw from.

Genome-wide transcriptional analysis of two soybean genotypes under dehydration and rehydration conditions

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Soybean is an important crop that provides valuable proteins and oils for human use. Because soybean growth and development is extremely sensitive to water deficit, quality and crop yields are severely impacted by drought stress. In the face of limited water resources, drought-responsive genes are therefore of interest. Identification and analysis of dehydration- and rehydration-inducible differentially expressed genes (DEGs) would not only aid elucidation of molecular mechanisms of stress response, but also enable improvement of crop stress tolerance via gene transfer. Using Digital Gene Expression Tag profiling (DGE), a new technique based on Illumina sequencing, we analyzed expression profiles between two soybean genotypes to identify drought-responsive genes. Results Two soybean genotypes—drought-tolerant Jindou21 and drought-sensitive Zhongdou33—were subjected to dehydration and rehydration conditions. For analysis of DEGs under dehydration conditions, 20 cDNA libraries were generated from roots and leaves at two different time points under well-watered and dehydration conditions. We also generated eight libraries for analysis under rehydration conditions. Sequencing of the 28 libraries produced 25,000–33,000 unambiguous tags, which were mapped to reference sequences for annotation of expressed genes. Many genes exhibited significant expression differences among the libraries. DEGs in the drought-tolerant genotype were identified by comparison of DEGs among treatments and genotypes. In Jindou21, 518 and 614 genes were differentially expressed under dehydration in leaves and roots, respectively, with 24 identified both in leaves and roots. The main functional categories enriched in these DEGs were metabolic process, response to stresses, plant hormone signal transduction, protein processing, and plant-pathogen interaction pathway; the associated genes primarily encoded transcription factors, protein kinases, and other regulatory proteins. The seven most significantly expressed (|log2 ratio| ≥ 8) genes— Glyma15g03920, Glyma05g02470, Glyma15g15010, Glyma05g09070, Glyma06g35630, Glyma08g12590, and Glyma11g16000—are more likely to determine drought stress tolerance. The expression patterns of eight randomly-selected genes were confirmed by quantitative RT-PCR; the results of QRT-PCR analysis agreed with transcriptional profile data for 96 out of 128 (75%) data points. Conclusions Many soybean genes were differentially expressed between drought-tolerant and drought-sensitive genotypes. Based on GO functional annotation and pathway enrichment analysis, some of these genes encoded transcription factors, protein kinases, and other regulatory proteins. The seven most significant DEGs are candidates for improving soybean drought tolerance. These findings will be helpful for analysis and elucidation of molecular mechanisms of drought tolerance; they also provide a basis for cultivating new varieties of drought-tolerant soybean. PMID:24093224

Understanding Droughts and their Agricultural Impact in North America at the Basin Scale through the Development of Satellite Based Drought Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz Hernandez, A.; Lawford, R. G.

2012-12-01

Drought is a major constraint severely affecting numerous agricultural regions in North America. Decision makers need timely information on the existence of a drought as well as its intensity, frequency, likely duration, and economic and social effects in order to implement adaptation strategies and minimize its impacts. Countries like Mexico and Canada face a challenge associated with the lack of consistent and reliable in-situ data that allows the computation of drought indicators at resolutions that effectively supports decision makers at the watershed scale. This study focuses on (1) the development of near-real time drought indicators at high resolution utilizing various satellite data for use in improving adaptation plans and mitigation actions at the basin level; (2) the quantification of the relationships between current and historical droughts and their agricultural impacts by evaluating thresholds for drought impacts; and (3) the assessment of the effects of existing water policies, economic subsidies, and infrastructure that affect the vulnerability of a particular region to the economic impacts of a drought. A pilot study area located in Northwest Mexico and known as the Rio Yaqui Basin was selected for this study in order to make comparisons between the satellite based indicators derived from currently available satellite products to provide an assessment of the quality of the products generated. The Rio Yaqui Basin, also referred to as the "bread basket" of Mexico, is situated in an arid to semi-arid region where highly sophisticated irrigation systems have been implemented to support extensive agriculture. Although for many years the irrigation systems acted as a safety net for the farmers, recent droughts have significantly impacted agricultural output, affected thousands of people, and increase the dependence on groundwater. The drought indices generated are used in conjunction with a decision-support model to provide information on drought impacts and to identify times when drought intensity has exceeded local index thresholds for drought intensity and impacts on a regional basis. Future work includes the selection of several additional drought-prone areas located in Southwest United States, Northwest Mexico, and the Palliser Triangle in Canada and the comparison of national policies associated with drought mitigation programs.

Increasing drought and diminishing benefits of elevated carbon dioxide for soybean yields across the US Midwest.

PubMed

Jin, Zhenong; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A; Leakey, Andrew D B; Lobell, David B

2018-02-01

Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ([CO 2 ]) are expected to increase C3 crop yield through the CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE) by stimulating photosynthesis and by reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration. The latter effect is widely believed to lead to greater benefits in dry rather than wet conditions, although some recent experimental evidence challenges this view. Here we used a process-based crop model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), to quantify the contemporary and future CFE on soybean in one of its primary production area of the US Midwest. APSIM accurately reproduced experimental data from the Soybean Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment site showing that the CFE declined with increasing drought stress. This resulted from greater radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above-ground biomass production at elevated [CO 2 ] that outpaced gains in transpiration efficiency (TE). Using an ensemble of eight climate model projections, we found that drought frequency in the US Midwest is projected to increase from once every 5 years currently to once every other year by 2050. In addition to directly driving yield loss, greater drought also significantly limited the benefit from rising [CO 2 ]. This study provides a link between localized experiments and regional-scale modeling to highlight that increased drought frequency and severity pose a formidable challenge to maintaining soybean yield progress that is not offset by rising [CO 2 ] as previously anticipated. Evaluating the relative sensitivity of RUE and TE to elevated [CO 2 ] will be an important target for future modeling and experimental studies of climate change impacts and adaptation in C3 crops. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantitative Phosphoproteomic Analysis Provides Insight into the Response to Short-Term Drought Stress in Ammopiptanthus mongolicus Roots.

PubMed

Sun, Huigai; Xia, Bolin; Wang, Xue; Gao, Fei; Zhou, Yijun

2017-10-17

Drought is one of the major abiotic stresses that negatively affects plant growth and development. Ammopiptanthus mongolicus is an ecologically important shrub in the mid-Asia desert region and used as a model for abiotic tolerance research in trees. Protein phosphorylation participates in the regulation of various biological processes, however, phosphorylation events associated with drought stress signaling and response in plants is still limited. Here, we conducted a quantitative phosphoproteomic analysis of the response of A. mongolicus roots to short-term drought stress. Data are available via the iProx database with project ID IPX0000971000. In total, 7841 phosphorylation sites were found from the 2019 identified phosphopeptides, corresponding to 1060 phosphoproteins. Drought stress results in significant changes in the abundance of 103 phosphopeptides, corresponding to 90 differentially-phosphorylated phosphoproteins (DPPs). Motif-x analysis identified two motifs, including [pSP] and [RXXpS], from these DPPs. Functional enrichment and protein-protein interaction analysis showed that the DPPs were mainly involved in signal transduction and transcriptional regulation, osmotic adjustment, stress response and defense, RNA splicing and transport, protein synthesis, folding and degradation, and epigenetic regulation. These drought-corresponsive phosphoproteins, and the related signaling and metabolic pathways probably play important roles in drought stress signaling and response in A. mongolicus roots. Our results provide new information for understanding the molecular mechanism of the abiotic stress response in plants at the posttranslational level.

Genome-Wide Analysis of Yield in Europe: Allelic Effects Vary with Drought and Heat Scenarios1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Millet, Emilie J.; Welcker, Claude; Kruijer, Willem; Negro, Sandra; Coupel-Ledru, Aude; Laborde, Jacques; Bauland, Cyril; Praud, Sebastien; Presterl, Thomas; Usadel, Björn; Charcosset, Alain; Van Eeuwijk, Fred; Tardieu, François

2016-01-01

Assessing the genetic variability of plant performance under heat and drought scenarios can contribute to reduce the negative effects of climate change. We propose here an approach that consisted of (1) clustering time courses of environmental variables simulated by a crop model in current (35 years × 55 sites) and future conditions into six scenarios of temperature and water deficit as experienced by maize (Zea mays L.) plants; (2) performing 29 field experiments in contrasting conditions across Europe with 244 maize hybrids; (3) assigning individual experiments to scenarios based on environmental conditions as measured in each field experiment; frequencies of temperature scenarios in our experiments corresponded to future heat scenarios (+5°C); (4) analyzing the genetic variation of plant performance for each environmental scenario. Forty-eight quantitative trait loci (QTLs) of yield were identified by association genetics using a multi-environment multi-locus model. Eight and twelve QTLs were associated to tolerances to heat and drought stresses because they were specific to hot and dry scenarios, respectively, with low or even negative allelic effects in favorable scenarios. Twenty-four QTLs improved yield in favorable conditions but showed nonsignificant effects under stress; they were therefore associated with higher sensitivity. Our approach showed a pattern of QTL effects expressed as functions of environmental variables and scenarios, allowing us to suggest hypotheses for mechanisms and candidate genes underlying each QTL. It can be used for assessing the performance of genotypes and the contribution of genomic regions under current and future stress situations and to accelerate breeding for drought-prone environments. PMID:27436830

Environment characterization as an aid to wheat improvement: interpreting genotype-environment interactions by modelling water-deficit patterns in North-Eastern Australia.

PubMed

Chenu, K; Cooper, M; Hammer, G L; Mathews, K L; Dreccer, M F; Chapman, S C

2011-03-01

Genotype-environment interactions (GEI) limit genetic gain for complex traits such as tolerance to drought. Characterization of the crop environment is an important step in understanding GEI. A modelling approach is proposed here to characterize broadly (large geographic area, long-term period) and locally (field experiment) drought-related environmental stresses, which enables breeders to analyse their experimental trials with regard to the broad population of environments that they target. Water-deficit patterns experienced by wheat crops were determined for drought-prone north-eastern Australia, using the APSIM crop model to account for the interactions of crops with their environment (e.g. feedback of plant growth on water depletion). Simulations based on more than 100 years of historical climate data were conducted for representative locations, soils, and management systems, for a check cultivar, Hartog. The three main environment types identified differed in their patterns of simulated water stress around flowering and during grain-filling. Over the entire region, the terminal drought-stress pattern was most common (50% of production environments) followed by a flowering stress (24%), although the frequencies of occurrence of the three types varied greatly across regions, years, and management. This environment classification was applied to 16 trials relevant to late stages testing of a breeding programme. The incorporation of the independently-determined environment types in a statistical analysis assisted interpretation of the GEI for yield among the 18 representative genotypes by reducing the relative effect of GEI compared with genotypic variance, and helped to identify opportunities to improve breeding and germplasm-testing strategies for this region.

Drought analysis in the Tons River Basin, India during 1969-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Gautam, Randhir; Kahya, Ercan

2018-05-01

The primary focus of this study is the analysis of droughts in the Tons River Basin during the period 1969-2008. Precipitation data observed at four gauging stations are used to identify drought over the study area. The event of drought is derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on a 3-month scale. Our results indicated that severe drought occurred in the Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna stations in the years 1973 and 1979. The droughts in this region had occurred mainly due to erratic behavior in monsoons, especially due to long breaks between monsoons. During the drought years, the deficiency of the annual rainfall in the analysis of annual rainfall departure had varied from -26% in 1976 to -60% in 1973 at Allahabad station in the basin. The maximum deficiency of annual and seasonal rainfall recorded in the basin is 60%. The maximum seasonal rainfall departure observed in the basin is in the order of -60% at Allahabad station in 1973, while maximum annual rainfall departure had been recorded as -60% during 1979 at the Satna station. Extreme dry events ( z score <-2) were detected during July, August, and September. Moreover, severe dry events were observed in August, September, and October. The drought conditions in the Tons River Basin are dominantly driven by total rainfall throughout the period between June and November.

Drought increases heat tolerance of leaf respiration in Eucalyptus globulus saplings grown under both ambient and elevated atmospheric [CO2] and temperature

PubMed Central

Gauthier, Paul P. G.; Crous, Kristine Y.; Ayub, Gohar; Duan, Honglang; Weerasinghe, Lasantha K.; Ellsworth, David S.; Tjoelker, Mark G.; Evans, John R.; Tissue, David T.; Atkin, Owen K.

2014-01-01

Climate change is resulting in increasing atmospheric [CO2], rising growth temperature (T), and greater frequency/severity of drought, with each factor having the potential to alter the respiratory metabolism of leaves. Here, the effects of elevated atmospheric [CO2], sustained warming, and drought on leaf dark respiration (R dark), and the short-term T response of R dark were examined in Eucalyptus globulus. Comparisons were made using seedlings grown under different [CO2], T, and drought treatments. Using high resolution T–response curves of R dark measured over the 15–65 °C range, it was found that elevated [CO2], elevated growth T, and drought had little effect on rates of R dark measured at T <35 °C and that there was no interactive effect of [CO2], growth T, and drought on T response of R dark. However, drought increased R dark at high leaf T typical of heatwave events (35–45 °C), and increased the measuring T at which maximal rates of R dark occurred (T max) by 8 °C (from 52 °C in well-watered plants to 60 °C in drought-treated plants). Leaf starch and soluble sugars decreased under drought and elevated growth T, respectively, but no effect was found under elevated [CO2]. Elevated [CO2] increased the Q 10 of R dark (i.e. proportional rise in R dark per 10 °C) over the 15–35 °C range, while drought increased Q 10 values between 35 °C and 45 °C. Collectively, the study highlights the dynamic nature of the T dependence of R dark in plants experiencing future climate change scenarios, particularly with respect to drought and elevated [CO2]. PMID:25205579

Drought drives rapid shifts in soil biogeochemistry and greenhouse gas emissions in a wet tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, C.; Silver, W. L.; Ruan, L.

2016-12-01

Global circulation models suggest that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of drought in the humid tropics (Neelin et al., 2006). There is considerable uncertainty about the effects of drought on biogeochemical cycling in these ecosystems (Chambers et al., 2012), which play a key role in global carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) budgets (Vitousek & Sanford, 1986; Wright, 2005; Le Quéré et al., 2009). We used an automated sensor array to determine the effects of a recent severe drought on soil moisture, oxygen (O2), greenhouse gas emissions, and key nutrients across a wet tropical forest landscape. The onset of drought led to a rapid decline in soil moisture (46% drop in 21 days) and an associated rise in soil aeration. Drying also led to significant declines in inorganic P concentrations, an element commonly limiting to net primary productivity (NPP) in humid tropical forests (Cleveland et al. 2011). Drought increased soil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from slopes by 60% (from 3.79 ± 2.92 to 6.06 ± 4.26 µmol m-2 s-1) and valleys by 163% (from 0.57 ± 0.17 to 1.51 ± 0.75 µmol m-2 s-1). Methane (CH4) fluxes declined by 90% in valleys after the drought (from 17.43 ± 29.60 to 1.67 ± 4.09 nmol m-2 s-1) but increased above pre-drought baseline by tenfold and hundredfold in ridges and slopes, respectively, post-drought, offsetting the initial decline in soil CH4 emissions. Soil moisture and soil O2 concentrations were slow to recover after the onset of rains, effectively increasing the length of the drought effect by up to 65%. Results indicate that drought is likely to result in soil C losses and increased soil P limitation, potentially decreasing tropical forest C uptake and storage in the future.

Perception of drought by surface and groundwater farmers: a perspective from Júcar river basin, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urquijo, Julia; De Stefano, Lucia

2015-04-01

Irrigation farmers play a key role in water management at all levels and their role becomes even more relevant during droughts, when water systems are under increased pressure. The analysis of farmers' drought perception and of their strategies to reduce vulnerability can contribute to better understand their behavior and concerns, and to better inform decision-making regarding drought management at different scales. This study focuses on the analysis of perception of and response to drought of surface and groundwater irrigation farmers in two areas of the Jucar River Basin (Spain). The results show that the dependence on surface water or groundwater for irrigation highly influences farmers' perception of drought. For surface water farmers, non-climatic factors (e.g. level of reservoirs or impacts on production) are used to describe drought situations more often that precipitation shortfalls, while groundwater irrigators barely feel affected by rainfall variability. Local strategies are highly adapted to local conditions and usually require collective agreements to coordinate individual actions and make them effective. The vulnerability factors differ depending on the source of water used to support irrigation, e.g. being water quality and the cost of water reasons of concern for groundwater farmers while irrigators using surface water are concerned with temporal water shortages and the economic viability of their agricultural activity. The analysis of how farmers relate to and face drought appears also to catch the main water management issues in the River Basin. The results of the study highlight that local knowledge can inform policy makers on the way farmers cope with drought and it can also support decision-making in enhancing drought and water resource management.

A Proteomics Approach to Discover Drought Tolerance Proteins in Wheat Pollen Grain at Meiosis Stage.

PubMed

Fotovat, Reza; Alikhani, Mehdi; Valizadeh, Mostafa; Mirzaei, Mehdi; Salekdeh, Ghasem H

2017-01-01

Plants reproductive phase, when grain yield and consequently farmers' investment is most in jeopardy, is considered as the most sensitive stage to drought stress. In this study, we aimed to explore the proteomic response of wheat anther at meiosis stage in a drought tolerant, Darab, and susceptible, Shiraz, wheat genotypes. Wheat plants were exposed to drought stress at meiosis stage for four days under controlled environmental conditions. Then, anthers from both genotypes were sampled, and their proteomes were examined via quantitative proteomics analysis. Our results demonstrated that short-term stress at meiosis stage reduced plant seed-setting compared to well-watered plants. This reduction was more pronounced in the susceptible genotype, Shiraz, by 51%, compared to the drought tolerant Darab by 14.3%. Proteome analysis revealed that 60 protein spots were drought responsive, out of which 44 were identified using a mass spectrometer. We observed a dramatic up-regulation of several heat shock proteins, as well as induction of Bet v I allergen family proteins, peroxiredoxin-5, and glutathione transferase with similar abundance in both genotypes. However, the abundance of proteins such as several stress response related proteins, including glutaredoxin, proteasome subunit alpha type 5, and ribosomal proteins showed a different response to drought stress in two genotypes. The differential abundance of proteins in two genotypes may suggest mechanisms by which tolerant genotype cope with drought stress. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proteome analysis of plant reproductive tissue response to drought stress in wheat and could broaden our insight into plant adaptation to drought stress. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Predicting and adapting to the agricultural impacts of large-scale drought (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, J. W.; Glotter, M.; Best, N.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Smith, L. A.; Foster, I.

2013-12-01

The impact of drought on agriculture is an important socioeconomic consequence of climate extremes. Drought affects millions of people globally each year, causing an average of 6-8 billion of damage annually in the U.S. alone. The 1988 U.S. drought is estimated to have cost 79 billion in 2013 dollars, behind only Hurricane Katrina as the most costly U.S. climate-related disaster in recent decades. The 2012 U.S. drought is expected to cost about 30 billion. Droughts and heat waves accounted for 12% of all billion-dollar disaster events in the U.S. from 1980-2011 but almost one quarter of total monetary damages. To make matters worse, the frequency and severity of large-scale droughts in important agricultural regions is expected to increase as temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, leading some researchers to suggest that extended drought will harm more people than any other climate-related impact, specifically in the area of food security. Improved understanding and forecasts of drought would have both immediate and long-term implications for the global economy and food security. We show that mechanistic agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies, especially in seasons for which drought is the overriding factor. With more accurate observations and forecasts for temperature and precipitation, the accuracy and lead times of drought impact predictions could be improved further. We provide evidence that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production in recent decades, adaptations that could be applied elsewhere. This work suggests a new approach to modeling, monitoring, and forecasting drought impacts on agriculture. Simulated (dashed line), observed (solid line), and observed linear trend (dashed straight green line) of national average maize yield in tonnes per hectare from 1979-2012. The red dot indicates the USDA estimate for 2012 released in November 2012. We use shading to show the central 95% (lighter bands) and 75% (darker bands) of the resampled forecast error distribution. The June-August Palmer Z-Index (by US climate division) for b) 1988 and c) 2012.

North-south differences in Chinese agricultural losses due to climate-change-influenced droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiang, Zhang; Lanying, Han; Jingjing, Lin; Qingyan, Cheng

2018-01-01

One of the effects of global climate change is increase in the frequency and severity of drought, which strongly affects the Chinese agricultural production. In order to cope these changes more effectively, it is important to document and analyze the agricultural losses caused by drought. We collected and analyzed conventional meteorological data and agricultural statistics data, in order to outline trends in drought occurrence and decline in agricultural yield. Data were assembled for the period 1960-2010. The study pays particular attention to regional differences between northern and southern China. Our results show the drought-caused agricultural loss rates (DCALR) in China have increased by approximately 0.5% per decade in the past 50 years. The study area in this paper is for the whole of the People's Republic of China, minus the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when we analyzed regional differences, we found that losses increased by approximately 0.6% per decade in northern China, close to twice the increase in southern China. Moreover, drought risks and agricultural losses are rising faster in northern China. Our results also indicate that the agriculture in northern China is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, whereas the agriculture in southern China is more sensitive to temperature changes.

Drought-induced carbon loss in peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenner, Nathalie; Freeman, Chris

2011-12-01

Peatlands store vast amounts of organic carbon, amounting to approximately 455 Pg. Carbon builds up in these water-saturated environments owing to the presence of phenolic compounds--which inhibit microbial activity and therefore prevent the breakdown of organic matter. Anoxic conditions limit the activity of phenol oxidase, the enzyme responsible for the breakdown of phenolic compounds. Droughts introduce oxygen into these systems, and the frequency of these events is rising. Here, we combine in vitro manipulations, mesocosm experiments and field observations to examine the impact of drought on peatland carbon loss. We show that drought stimulates bacterial growth and phenol oxidase activity, resulting in a reduction in the concentration of phenolic compounds in peat. This further stimulates microbial growth, causing the breakdown of organic matter and the release of carbon dioxide in a biogeochemical cascade. We further show that re-wetting the peat accelerates carbon losses to the atmosphere and receiving waters, owing to drought-induced increases in nutrient and labile carbon levels, which raise pH and stimulate anaerobic decomposition. We suggest that severe drought, and subsequent re-wetting, could destabilize peatland carbon stocks; understanding this process could aid understanding of interactions between peatlands and other environmental trends, and lead to the development of strategies for increasing carbon stocks.

Diverse responses of different structured forest to drought in Southwest China through remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Peipei; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Luo, Hui; Gao, Shan; Li, Zheng; Cao, Leyao

2018-07-01

Global climate change leads to gradual increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme drought events. Human activities such as afforestation and deforestation have led to spatial variation in forest structure, causing forests to exhibit an age-spatial structure relationship. Thus, it is of great importance to accurately evaluate the effects of drought stress on forest ecosystems with different forest age structures. Because the spatial heterogeneity varies with drought stress intensity, forest age, there are still a lot of uncertainties in current studies. In this study, based on the field measurement, and the proxy index of stand age (based on forest canopy height from LiDAR and stock volume from inventory) at the regional scale, we analyzed the different drought responses of forest ecosystems with various forest ages across different scales in Yunnan province, southwest China from 2001 to 2014. At the local scale, significant differences in the effects of drought stress were found among forests with various ages, suggesting that older forests suffer more under drought stress than younger forests. At the regional scale, the investigation statistics of forest damage indicated a maximum damage ratio in the forest with tall trees (>32 m), whereas damage was minimal in the forest with short trees (<25 m). The stock volume of the forest exhibited the same pattern, that is, the forest damage ratio increased as the stock volume increased. These data demonstrate that the responses of forest drought could be affected by forest age. Under drought stress, older forests show greater vulnerability and risk of damage, which will require special attention for forest managers, as well as improved risk assessments, in the context of future climate change.

Path analysis of phenotypic traits in young cacao plants under drought conditions.

PubMed

Santos, Emerson Alves Dos; Almeida, Alex-Alan Furtado de; Branco, Marcia Christina da Silva; Santos, Ivanildes Conceição Dos; Ahnert, Dario; Baligar, Virupax C; Valle, Raúl René

2018-01-01

Drought is worldwide considered one of the most limiting factors of Theobroma cacao production, which can be intensified by global climate changes. In this study, we aimed to investigate the phenotypic correlation among morphological characteristics of cacao progenies submitted to irrigation and drought conditions and their partitions into direct and indirect effects. Path analysis with phenotypic plasticity index was used as criteria for estimation of basic and explanatory variables. The experiment was conducted in a greenhouse at the Cacao Research Center (CEPEC), Ilhéus, Bahia, Brazil, in a randomized block 21 x 2 factorial arrangement [21 cacao progenies obtained from complete diallel crosses and two water regimes (control and drought)] and six replications. In general, drought conditions influenced biomass production in most progenies, causing significant reductions in total leaf area, leaf number, leaf biomass, fine-roots length (diameter <1 mm), root volume and root area for considered drought intolerant. All progenies showed alterations in growth due to drought. Phenotypic plasticity was most strongly pronounced in root volume. Stem and root diameters, as well as stem dry biomass were the growth variables with the greatest direct effects on root volume under drought conditions, these characters being indicated in screening of cacao progenies drought tolerant.

Path analysis of phenotypic traits in young cacao plants under drought conditions

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Emerson Alves; de Almeida, Alex-Alan Furtado; Branco, Marcia Christina da Silva; dos Santos, Ivanildes Conceição; Ahnert, Dario; Baligar, Virupax C.; Valle, Raúl René

2018-01-01

Drought is worldwide considered one of the most limiting factors of Theobroma cacao production, which can be intensified by global climate changes. In this study, we aimed to investigate the phenotypic correlation among morphological characteristics of cacao progenies submitted to irrigation and drought conditions and their partitions into direct and indirect effects. Path analysis with phenotypic plasticity index was used as criteria for estimation of basic and explanatory variables. The experiment was conducted in a greenhouse at the Cacao Research Center (CEPEC), Ilhéus, Bahia, Brazil, in a randomized block 21 x 2 factorial arrangement [21 cacao progenies obtained from complete diallel crosses and two water regimes (control and drought)] and six replications. In general, drought conditions influenced biomass production in most progenies, causing significant reductions in total leaf area, leaf number, leaf biomass, fine-roots length (diameter <1 mm), root volume and root area for considered drought intolerant. All progenies showed alterations in growth due to drought. Phenotypic plasticity was most strongly pronounced in root volume. Stem and root diameters, as well as stem dry biomass were the growth variables with the greatest direct effects on root volume under drought conditions, these characters being indicated in screening of cacao progenies drought tolerant. PMID:29408854

Integrating Enhanced Grace Terrestrial Water Storage Data Into the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housborg, Rasmus; Rodell, Matthew

2010-01-01

NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites measure time variations nf the Earth's gravity field enabling reliable detection of spatio-temporal variations in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), including ground water. The U.S. and North American Drought Monitors are two of the premier drought monitoring products available to decision-makers for assessing and minimizing drought impacts, but they rely heavily on precipitation indices and do not currently incorporate systematic observations of deep soil moisture and groundwater storage conditions. Thus GRACE has great potential to improve the Drought Monitors hy filling this observational gap. Horizontal, vertical and temporal disaggregation of the coarse-resolution GRACE TWS data has been accomplished by assimilating GRACE TWS anomalies into the Catchment Land Surface Model using ensemble Kalman smoother. The Drought Monitors combine several short-term and long-term drought indices and indicators expressed in percentiles as a reference to their historical frequency of occurrence for the location and time of year in question. To be consistent, we are in the process of generating a climatology of estimated soil moisture and ground water based on m 60-year Catchment model simulation which will subsequently be used to convert seven years of GRACE assimilated fields into soil moisture and groundwater percentiles. for systematic incorporation into the objective blends that constitute Drought Monitor baselines. At this stage we provide a preliminary evaluation of GRACE assimilated Catchment model output against independent datasets including soil moisture observations from Aqua AMSR-E and groundwater level observations from the U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Climate Response Network.

Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range (east of Spain) since 1694

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tejedor, Ernesto; de Luis, Martín; Cuadrat, José María; Esper, Jan; Saz, Miguel Ángel

2016-03-01

Droughts are a recurrent phenomenon in the Mediterranean basin with negative consequences for society, economic activities, and natural systems. Nevertheless, the study of drought recurrence and severity in Spain has been limited so far due to the relatively short instrumental period. In this work, we present a reconstruction of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the Iberian Range. Growth variations and climatic signals within the network are assessed developing a correlation matrix and the data combined to a single chronology integrating 336 samples from 169 trees of five different pine species distributed throughout the province of Teruel. The new chronology, calibrated against regional instrumental climatic data, shows a high and stable correlation with the July SPI integrating moisture conditions over 12 months forming the basis for a 318-year drought reconstruction. The climate signal contained in this reconstruction is highly significant ( p < 0.05) and spatially robust over the interior areas of Spain located above 1000 meters above sea level (masl). According to our SPI reconstruction, seven substantially dry and five wet periods are identified since the late seventeenth century considering ≥±1.76 standard deviations. Besides these, 36 drought and 28 pluvial years were identified. Some of these years, such as 1725, 1741, 1803, and 1879, are also revealed in other drought reconstructions in Romania and Turkey, suggesting that coherent larger-scale synoptic patterns drove these extreme deviations. Since regional drought deviations are also retained in historical documents, the tree-ring-based reconstruction presented here will allow us to cross-validate drought frequency and magnitude in a highly vulnerable region.

500-year April-September droughts in the Czech Lands based on documentary data and instrumental records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Řezníčková, Ladislava; Brázdil, Rudolf; Trnka, Miroslav; Dobrovolný, Petr; Kotyza, Oldřich; Štěpánek, Petr; Zahradníček, Pavel; Valášek, Hubert

2013-04-01

This paper analyses temporal and spatial variability of April-September (the vegetation period) droughts in the Czech Lands over the last 500 years. The study is based on different types of documentary data (e.g. chronicles, newspapers, economic sources, weather diaries) covering the pre-instrumental period AD 1501-1804 and on the systematic instrumental meteorological measurements afterwards. Historical-climatological database of the Czech Lands is used for the study of the duration and intensity of drought episodes based on the series of precipitation indices created from documentary data in a 7-degree scale from -3 (extremely dry) to +3 (extremely wet). For the instrumental period of 1805-2012 Palmer's Z-index and PDSI series for mean Czech temperature and precipitation series are used (they were calculated from homogeneous series of 10 and 14 stations respectively). Consequently the 500-year chronology of drought episodes derived from documentary and instrumental data is compiled and the temporal (frequency, seasonality and intensity) and spatial variability of droughts in the Czech Lands from AD 1501 is analysed. The most outstanding drought events are selected and analysed in detail also with respect to their human impacts. The results obtained for the Czech Lands are compared with drought episodes known in Central Europe from other studies and are evaluated with respect to climate variability in Central Europe during the last 500 years (this research is supported by projects InterDrought no. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248, and GA CR no. P209/11/0956).

Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range (east of Spain) since 1694.

PubMed

Tejedor, Ernesto; de Luis, Martín; Cuadrat, José María; Esper, Jan; Saz, Miguel Ángel

2016-03-01

Droughts are a recurrent phenomenon in the Mediterranean basin with negative consequences for society, economic activities, and natural systems. Nevertheless, the study of drought recurrence and severity in Spain has been limited so far due to the relatively short instrumental period. In this work, we present a reconstruction of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the Iberian Range. Growth variations and climatic signals within the network are assessed developing a correlation matrix and the data combined to a single chronology integrating 336 samples from 169 trees of five different pine species distributed throughout the province of Teruel. The new chronology, calibrated against regional instrumental climatic data, shows a high and stable correlation with the July SPI integrating moisture conditions over 12 months forming the basis for a 318-year drought reconstruction. The climate signal contained in this reconstruction is highly significant (p < 0.05) and spatially robust over the interior areas of Spain located above 1000 meters above sea level (masl). According to our SPI reconstruction, seven substantially dry and five wet periods are identified since the late seventeenth century considering ≥±1.76 standard deviations. Besides these, 36 drought and 28 pluvial years were identified. Some of these years, such as 1725, 1741, 1803, and 1879, are also revealed in other drought reconstructions in Romania and Turkey, suggesting that coherent larger-scale synoptic patterns drove these extreme deviations. Since regional drought deviations are also retained in historical documents, the tree-ring-based reconstruction presented here will allow us to cross-validate drought frequency and magnitude in a highly vulnerable region.

Northern Forest DroughtNet: Initial results from a multi-year throughfall manipulation experiment in New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntire, C.; Vadeboncoeur, M. A.; Coble, A.; Jennings, K.; Asbjornsen, H.

2016-12-01

Climate change is likely to affect the Northern Forest region through the increased frequency and severity of drought events. However, our understanding of how the Northern Forest, which is adapted to humid temperate conditions, will respond to moderate to extreme droughts is limited. Given the important role that these forests play in protecting ecosystem services and in supplying forest products, enhancing our knowledge about impacts of drought is critical to ensuring effective forest management and adaptation to climate change. The Northern Forest DroughtNet project aims to simulate a four-year severe drought by removing 55% of the incoming throughfall; thus representing the 99th percentile of annual precipitation based on historic precipitation data in Durham, NH. This is accomplished using two replicated 900 m2 throughfall removal structures consisting of a network of gutters that capture and divert incoming precipitation away from the established treatment area. Data presented here will address the ecosystem response to the drought treatment over the course of the first year of the experiment as well as validate the effectiveness and artifacts of the throughfall removal structure. Response variables of interest include soil moisture content, above and below ground biomass production, litterfall, decomposition rates, leaf water potential, foliar gas exchange, and whole tree transpiration rates. Preliminary findings provide insight into the effectiveness of using throughfall manipulation experiments in a temperate forest ecosystem to simulate an extreme drought event, as well as initial tree physiological and growth responses in relation to soil moisture availability and the implications for future climate change impacts.

Gel-free/label-free proteomic analysis of root tip of soybean over time under flooding and drought stresses.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Oh, MyeongWon; Sakata, Katsumi; Komatsu, Setsuko

2016-01-01

Growth in the early stage of soybean is markedly inhibited under flooding and drought stresses. To explore the responsive mechanisms of soybean, temporal protein profiles of root tip under flooding and drought stresses were analyzed using gel-free/label-free proteomic technique. Root tip was analyzed because it was the most sensitive organ against flooding, and it was beneficial to root penetration under drought. UDP glucose: glycoprotein glucosyltransferase was decreased and increased in soybean root under flooding and drought, respectively. Temporal protein profiles indicated that fermentation and protein synthesis/degradation were essential in root tip under flooding and drought, respectively. In silico protein-protein interaction analysis revealed that the inductive and suppressive interactions between S-adenosylmethionine synthetase family protein and B-S glucosidase 44 under flooding and drought, respectively, which are related to carbohydrate metabolism. Furthermore, biotin/lipoyl attachment domain containing protein and Class II aminoacyl tRNA/biotin synthetases superfamily protein were repressed in the root tip during time-course stresses. These results suggest that biotin and biotinylation might be involved in energy management to cope with flooding and drought in early stage of soybean-root tip. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

2015-04-01

Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with data from the European Drought Impact Report Inventory. For specific hotpots vulnerability factors are presented also through spider diagrams in order to allow policy and decision makers to identify underlying sources of vulnerability in the European context. This assessment offers an overall picture at a European level that strives to contribute to enhance the understanding of drought vulnerability across Europe.

Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L.

1998-01-01

Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from local (<102 km2) to mesoscale (104-106 km2). Climate-disturbance relations are more variable and complex than previously assumed. During the past three centuries, mesoscale outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) were associated with wet, not dry episodes, contrary to conventional wisdom. Regional fires occur during extreme droughts but, in some ecosystems, antecedent wet conditions play a secondary role by regulating accumulation of fuels. Interdecadal changes in fire-climate associations parallel other evidence for shifts in the frequency or amplitude of the Southern Oscillation (SO) during the past three centuries. High interannual, fire-climate correlations (r = 0.7 to 0.9) during specific decades (i.e., circa 1740-80 and 1830-60) reflect periods of high amplitude in the SO and rapid switching from extreme wet to dry years in the Southwest, thereby entraining fire occurrence across the region. Weak correlations from 1780 to 1830 correspond with a decrease in SO frequency or amplitude inferred from independent tree-ring width, ice core, and coral isotope reconstructions. Episodic dry and wet episodes have altered age structures and species composition of woodland and conifer forests. The scarcity of old, living conifers established before circa 1600 suggests that the extreme drought of 1575-95 had pervasive effects on tree populations. The most extreme drought of the past 400 years occurred in the mid-twentieth century (1942-57). This drought resulted in broadscale plant dieoffs in shrublands, woodlands, and forests and accelerated shrub invasion of grasslands. Drought conditions were broken by the post-1976 shift to the negative SO phase and wetter cool seasons in the Southwest. The post-1976 period shows up as an unprecedented surge in tree-ring growth within millennia-length chronologies. This unusual episode may have produced a pulse in tree recruitment and improved rangeland conditions (e.g., higher grass production), though additional study is needed to disentangle the interacting roles of land use and climate. The 1950s drought and the post-1976 wet period and their aftermaths offer natural experiments to study long-term ecosystem response to interdecadal climate variability.Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from local (<102 km2) to mesoscale (104-106 km2). Climate-disturbance relations are more variable and complex than previously assumed. During the past three centuries, mesoscale outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) were associated with wet, not dry episodes, contrary to conventional wisdom. Regional fires occur during extreme droughts but, in some ecosystems, antecedent wet conditions play a secondary role by regulating accumulation of fuels. Interdecadal changes in fire-climate associations parallel other evidence for shifts in the frequency or amplitude of the Southern Oscillation (SO) during the past three centuries. High interannual, fire-climate correlations (r = 0.7 to 0.9) during specific decades (i.e., circa 1740-80 and 1830-60) reflect periods of high amplitude in the SO and rapid switching from extreme wet to dry years in the Southwest, thereby entraining fire occurrence across the region. Weak correlations from 1780 to 1830 correspond with a decrease in SO frequency or amplitude inferred from independent tree-ring width, ic

Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

2017-04-01

Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were previously detected by other researches. In the whole basin, we estimated an upward trend of maximum annual discharges at Amazon River. In order to estimate better future hydrological behavior and their impacts on the society, HR could be used as a methodology to understand past extreme events occurrence in many places considering the global coverage of rainfall datasets.

Hydrologic Effects and Biogeographic Impacts of Coastal Fog, Channel Islands, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, D. T.; Still, C. J.; Williams, A. P.

2006-12-01

Fog has long been recognized as an important component of the hydrological cycle in many ecosystems, including coastal desert fog belts, tropical cloud forests, and montane areas worldwide. Fog drip can be a major source of water, particularly during the dry season, and there is evidence in some ecosystems of direct fogwater uptake by foliar absorption. Fog and low clouds can also increase availability of water by reducing evaporative water losses. In the California Channel Islands, fog and low stratus clouds dramatically affect the water budget of coastal vegetation, particularly during the long summer drought. This work focuses on a population of Bishop pine (Pinus muricata D. Don) on Santa Cruz Island. This is the southernmost large stand of this species, and tree growth and survival appears to be strongly limited by water availability. We have used parallel measurement and modeling approaches to quantify the importance of fogwater inputs and persistent cloud cover to Bishop pine growth. We have modeled drought stress over the last century based on local climate records, calibrated against a dense network of 12 weather stations on a 7km coastal-inland elevation gradient. Water availability is highly variable year to year, with episodic droughts that are associated with widespread tree mortality. Frequent cloud cover near the coast reduces evapotranspiration relative to the inland site (on the order of 25%), thereby delaying the onset of, and moderating the severity of the annual summer drought. Substantial summer fog drip at higher elevations provides additional water inputs that also reduce drought severity. Beyond the theoretical availability of extra water from fog drip, tree ring analysis and xylem water isotopic data suggest that significant amounts of fog water are actually taken up by these trees. Stand boundaries appear to be driven by spatial patterns of mortality related to water availability and frequency of severe drought. These results suggest that coastal endemic forests may be particularly susceptible to climate change, particularly if it leads to changes in the fog and low stratus cloud regime, in agreement with palynological and plant macrofossil evidence from the Santa Barbara basin showing the contraction of coastal pines during warm periods over the last 160 kyrs.

Examining the extreme 2017 spring drought event in South Korea using a suite of drought indices (SPI, SC-PDSI, SPEI, EDI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nam, W. H.; Hayes, M. J.; Svoboda, M. D.; Fuchs, B.; Tadesse, T.; Wilhite, D. A.; Hong, E. M.; Kim, T.

2017-12-01

South Korea has experienced extreme droughts in 1994-1995, 2000-2001, 2012, 2015, and 2016-2017. The 2017 spring drought (with especially low winter precipitation recorded in winter 2016) affected a large portion of central and western South Korea, and was one of the most severe droughts in the region since the 2000-2001 drought. The spring drought of 2017 was characterized by exceptionally low precipitation with total precipitation from January to June being 50% lower than the mean normal precipitation record (1981-2010) over most of western South Korea. It was the climatologically driest spring over the 1961-2016 record period. Effective drought monitoring and management depends on which drought indices are selected because each drought index has different drought criteria or levels of drought severity, associated with drought responses. In this study, for the quantitative analysis of the spring 2017 drought event in South Korea, four widely-used drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI), and the Effective Drought Index (EDI) are compared with observed drought damaged areas in the context of agricultural drought impacts. The South Korean government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) and Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)) has been operating a government-level drought monitoring system since 2016. Results from this study can be used to improve the drought monitoring applications, as well as drought planning and preparedness in South Korea.

Physical Processes Involved in the 1988 Drought and 1993 Floods in North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Guillemot, Christian J.

1996-06-01

An analysis of the spring-summer 1988 drought and 1993 floods over North America reveals a reversal in the sign of anomalies in several fields. Large sea surface temperature anomalies of opposite signs existed in the tropical Pacific with strong La Niña conditions in 1988 and a mature El Niño in 1993. The distribution of tropical convection in the convergence zones and associated latent heating of the atmosphere were correspondingly altered, implying a large-scale switch in the anomalous tropical heating and forcing of extratropical quasi-stationary waves in the atmosphere, influencing the subtropical jet stream over the North Pacific and across North America. In 1988 the jet stream and the closely related storm track of high-frequency disturbances in the upper troposphere were displaced into Canada well north of the normal location-the farthest north of any year from 1979 to 1993. In 1993 a broader jet stream and the storm track were displaced well south of normal to a more springlike location across the United States-the farthest south by over 200 km of any year from 1979 to 1993. High-frequency eddy activity in the Pacific-North American storm track is shown to reinforce the anomalous jet streams in both years.An analysis of the moisture budgets reveals a stronger river of atmospheric moisture flowing across the Gulf of Mexico into the central and eastern United States in 1993. Also, in the lower atmosphere, the storm track in 1993 was more active, and its lower latitude allowed the cyclonic disturbances to tap into the moisture source, transport moisture into the upper Mississippi River basin, and precipitate it out. It is deduced that local evaporation may have enhanced the precipitation and helped perpetuate and prolong the conditions. In contrast, in 1988 disturbances were weaker and displaced far enough north to avoid most of the moisture source, and the drought was perpetuated by the dry conditions. Consequently, these effects should be viewed as feedbacks that amplify and prolong the response, while from the standpoint of the atmosphere, the anomalous tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are a notable (but not the sole) external forcing of the patterns.

RNA-Seq Analysis Reveals MAPKKK Family Members Related to Drought Tolerance in Maize

PubMed Central

Ren, Wen; Yang, Fengling; He, Hang; Zhao, Jiuran

2015-01-01

The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade is an evolutionarily conserved signal transduction pathway that is involved in plant development and stress responses. As the first component of this phosphorelay cascade, mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase kinases (MAPKKKs) act as adaptors linking upstream signaling steps to the core MAPK cascade to promote the appropriate cellular responses; however, the functions of MAPKKKs in maize are unclear. Here, we identified 71 MAPKKK genes, of which 14 were novel, based on a computational analysis of the maize (Zea mays L.) genome. Using an RNA-seq analysis in the leaf, stem and root of maize under well-watered and drought-stress conditions, we identified 5,866 differentially expressed genes (DEGs), including 8 MAPKKK genes responsive to drought stress. Many of the DEGs were enriched in processes such as drought stress, abiotic stimulus, oxidation-reduction, and metabolic processes. The other way round, DEGs involved in processes such as oxidation, photosynthesis, and starch, proline, ethylene, and salicylic acid metabolism were clearly co-expressed with the MAPKKK genes. Furthermore, a quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) analysis was performed to assess the relative expression levels of MAPKKKs. Correlation analysis revealed that there was a significant correlation between expression levels of two MAPKKKs and relative biomass responsive to drought in 8 inbred lines. Our results indicate that MAPKKKs may have important regulatory functions in drought tolerance in maize. PMID:26599013

Identification of drought-responsive genes in roots of upland rice (Oryza sativa L)

PubMed Central

Rabello, Aline R; Guimarães, Cléber M; Rangel, Paulo HN; da Silva, Felipe R; Seixas, Daniela; de Souza, Emanuel; Brasileiro, Ana CM; Spehar, Carlos R; Ferreira, Márcio E; Mehta, Ângela

2008-01-01

Background Rice (Oryza sativa L.) germplasm represents an extraordinary source of genes that control traits of agronomic importance such as drought tolerance. This diversity is the basis for the development of new cultivars better adapted to water restriction conditions, in particular for upland rice, which is grown under rainfall. The analyses of subtractive cDNA libraries and differential protein expression of drought tolerant and susceptible genotypes can contribute to the understanding of the genetic control of water use efficiency in rice. Results Two subtractive libraries were constructed using cDNA of drought susceptible and tolerant genotypes submitted to stress against cDNA of well-watered plants. In silico analysis revealed 463 reads, which were grouped into 282 clusters. Several genes expressed exclusively in the tolerant or susceptible genotypes were identified. Additionally, proteome analysis of roots from stressed plants was performed and 22 proteins putatively associated to drought tolerance were identified by mass spectrometry. Conclusion Several genes and proteins involved in drought-response, as well as genes with no described homologs were identified. Genes exclusively expressed in the tolerant genotype were, in general, related to maintenance of turgor and cell integrity. In contrast, in the susceptible genotype, expression of genes involved in protection against cell damage was not detected. Several protein families identified in the proteomic analysis were not detected in the cDNA analysis. There is an indication that the mechanisms of susceptibility to drought in upland rice are similar to those of lowland varieties. PMID:18922162

Dampening effects of long-term experimental drought on growth and mortality rates of a Holm oak forest.

PubMed

Barbeta, Adrià; Ogaya, Romà; Peñuelas, Josep

2013-10-01

Forests respond to increasing intensities and frequencies of drought by reducing growth and with higher tree mortality rates. Little is known, however, about the long-term consequences of generally drier conditions and more frequent extreme droughts. A Holm oak forest was exposed to experimental rainfall manipulation for 13 years to study the effect of increasing drought on growth and mortality of the dominant species Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia, and Arbutus unedo. The drought treatment reduced stem growth of A. unedo (-66.5%) and Q. ilex (-17.5%), whereas P. latifolia remained unaffected. Higher stem mortality rates were noticeable in Q. ilex (+42.3%), but not in the other two species. Stem growth was a function of the drought index of early spring in the three species. Stem mortality rates depended on the drought index of winter and spring for Q. ilex and in spring and summer for P. latifolia, but showed no relation to climate in A. unedo. Following a long and intense drought (2005-2006), stem growth of Q. ilex and P. latifolia increased, whereas it decreased in A. unedo. Q. ilex also enhanced its survival after this period. Furthermore, the effect of drought treatment on stem growth in Q. ilex and A. unedo was attenuated as the study progressed. These results highlight the different vulnerabilities of Mediterranean species to more frequent and intense droughts, which may lead to partial species substitution and changes in forest structure and thus in carbon uptake. The response to drought, however, changed over time. Decreased intra- and interspecific competition after extreme events with high mortality, together with probable morphological and physiological acclimation to drought during the study period, may, at least in the short term, buffer forests against drier conditions. The long-term effects of drought consequently deserve more attention, because the ecosystemic responses are unlikely to be stable over time.Nontechnical summaryIn this study, we evaluate the effect of long-term (13 years) experimental drought on growth and mortality rates of three forest Mediterranean species, and their response to the different intensities and durations of natural drought. We provide evidence for species-specific responses to drought, what may eventually lead to a partial community shift favoring the more drought-resistant species. However, we also report a dampening of the treatment effect on the two drought-sensitive species, which may indicate a potential adaptation to drier conditions at the ecosystem or population level. These results are thus relevant to account for the stabilizing processes that would alter the initial response of ecosystem to drought through changes in plant physiology, morphology, and demography compensation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow in the Snare River Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, J. P.; Pisaric, M. F.

2017-12-01

Drought is a component of many ecosystems in North America causing environmental and socioeconomical impacts. In the ongoing context of climatic and environmental changes, drought-related issues are becoming problematic in northern Canada, which have not been associated with drought-like conditions in the past. Dryer than average conditions threatens the energy security of northern canadian communities, since this region relies on the production of hydroelectricity as an energy source. In the North Slave Region of Northwest Territory (NWT), water levels and streamflows were significantly lower in 2014/2015. The Government of the NWT had to spend nearly $50 million to purchase diesel fuel to generate enough electricity to supplement the reduced power generation of the Snare River hydroelectric system, hence the need to better understand the multi-decadal variability in streamflow. The aims of this presentation are i) to present jack pine and white spruce tree-ring chronologies of Southern NWT; ii) to reconstruct past streamflow of the Snare River Basin; iii) to evaluate the frequency and magnitude of extreme drought conditions, and iv) to identify which large-scale atmospheric or oceanic patterns are teleconnected to regional hydraulic conditions. Preliminary results show that the growth of jack pine and white spruce populations is better correlated with precipitation and temperature, respectively, than hydraulic conditions. Nonetheless, we present a robust streamflow reconstruction of the Snare River that is well correlated with the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, albeit the strength of the correlation is non-stationary. Spectral analysis corroborate the synchronicity between negative NAO conditions and drought conditions. From an operational standpoint, considering that the general occurrence of positive/negative NAO can be predicted, it the hope of the authors that these results can facilitate energetic planning in the Northwest Territories through the assessment of the prevailing streamflow scenario.

Tree-ring chronologies and stable carbon isotopic composition reveal impacts of hydro-climate change on bottomland hardwood forests of South-Central Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshpande, A. G.; Lafon, C. W.; Hyodo, A.; Boutton, T. W.; Moore, G. W.

2017-12-01

Over the last three decades, South-Central Texas has experienced an increase in frequency and intensity of hydro-climatic anomalies such as extreme droughts and floods. These extreme events can have negative impacts on forest health and can strongly alter a wide range of ecosystem processes. Tree increment growth in bottomland hardwood forests is influenced by droughts and floods, which affects the carbon isotope values (δ13C) in tree-ring cellulose. This study aims to assess the impacts of hydro-climate change on the growth and physiological response of bottomland hardwood forests by investigating variations in radial growth and tree-ring carbon isotopic composition. Annual ring-width chronologies for 41 years (1975-2016) were developed from 24 water oak (Quercus nigra) trees at 4 sites along a 25 km transect located in the San Bernard River watershed. The δ13C values in cellulose were measured from 4-year ring composites including years with anomalously high and low precipitation. Dendroclimatology analysis involved correlating ring-width index with precipitation records and Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index (PDSI). Radial growth was more closely associated with spring-summer (Feb-Aug) precipitation (R2 = 0.42, p<0.001) and PDSI (R2 = 0.39, p<0.001), especially the months of May, June and July. Specifically, ring widths were found to be most sensitive to the drought intensity for July. We found that both excessive drought and excessive wetness induced stress, as indicated by narrower growth rings and increased cellulose δ13C. However, the inter-site variation in δ13C indicated large hydro-climatic variation between sites (2.79-4.24‰ for wet years and 0.53-1.50‰ for drought years). δ13C values showed an increase of 0.78‰ and 2.40‰ from the wettest (1991-1994) to the driest period (2008-2011) at two of our sites, possibly due to drought-induced moisture-deficit-stress. However, at the other two sites, the δ13C values of tree rings from the same periods decreased by 0.65‰ and 1.19‰, possibly emanating from flooding-induced stress caused by waterlogging. This study provides insights on how hydro-climatic variations affect riparian forest health in the region and acts as a baseline for predicting future ecohydrological impacts of floods and droughts on these forests.

Extreme drought event and shrub invasion combine to reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Maria; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa; Pinto, Joaquim; Bugalho, Miguel; Werner, Christiane

2016-04-01

Extreme droughts and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning. Shrub encroachment is increasing in many regions worldwide and extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, namely in the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, little is known about how these drivers may interact and affect ecosystem functioning and resilience to extreme droughts. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that the native shrub invasion and extreme drought combined to reduce ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of the key-stone oak tree species. We established six 25 x 25 m paired plots in a shrub (Cistus ladanifer L.) encroached Mediterranean cork-oak (Quercus suber L.) woodland. We measured sapflow and pre-dawn leaf water potential of trees and shrubs and soil water content in all plots during three years. We determined the resilience of tree transpiration to evaluate to what extent trees recovered from the extreme drought event. From February to November 2011 we conducted baseline measurements for plot comparison. In November 2011 all the shrubs from one of all the paired plots were cut and removed. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub, which further increased after the extreme drought. Simultaneously, tree transpiration in invaded plots declined much stronger (67 ± 13 %) than in plots cleared from shrubs (31 ± 11%) relative to the pre-drought year. Trees in invaded plots were not able to recover in the following wetter year showing lower resilience to the extreme drought event. Our results imply that in Mediterranean-type of climates invasion by water spending species can combine with projected recurrent extreme droughts causing critical drought tolerance thresholds of trees to be overcome increasing the probability of tree mortality (Caldeira et.al. 2015). Caldeira M.C., Lecomte X., David T.S., Pinto J.G., Bugalho M.N. & Werner C. (2015). Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates. Scientific Reports, 5, 15110.

Great Plains Drought in Simulations of Twentieth Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCrary, R. R.; Randall, D. A.

2008-12-01

The Great Plains region of the United States was influenced by a number of multi-year droughts during the twentieth century. Most notable were the "Dust Bowl" drought of the 1930s and the 1950s Great Plains drought. In this study we evaluate the ability of three of the Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC to simulate Great Plains drought with the same frequency and intensity as was observed during the twentieth century. The models chosen for this study are: GFDL CM 2.0, NCAR CCSM3, and UKMO HadCM3. We find that the models accurately capture the climatology of the hydrologic cycle of the Great Plains, but that they tend to overestimate the variability in Great Plains precipitation. We also find that in each model simulation at least one long-term drought occurs over the Great Plains region during their representations 20th Century Climate. The multi-year droughts produced by the models exhibit similar magnitudes and spatial scales as was observed during the twentieth century. This study also investigates the relative roles that external forcing from the tropical Pacific and local feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere have in the initiation and perpetuation of Great Plains drought in each model. We find that cool, La Nina-like conditions in the tropical pacific are often associated with long-term drought conditions over the Great Plains in GFDL CM 2.0 and UKMO HadCM3, but there appears to be no systematic relationship between tropical Pacific SST variability and Great Plains drought in CCSM3. It is possible the strong coupling between the land surface and the atmosphere in the NCAR model causes precipitation anomalies to lock into phase over the Great Plains thereby perpetuating drought conditions. Results from this study are intended to help assess whether or not these climate models are credible for use in the assessment of future drought over the Great Plains region of the United States.

Drought Legacy and the Impacts on the Amazon Forest Carbon Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saatchi, S. S.

2015-12-01

Sassan Saatchi1,2, Yifan Yu1, Xiang Xu2, Luiz Aragao3, Liana Anderson31Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA2Institute of Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90045. USA3 Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil, 12227-010, BrazilRecent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Ground and satellite observations of 2005 and 2010 mega-droughts have shown an increase in fire occurrence and tree mortality during the period of drought. Here, we use a combination of satellite observations over a period of about 15 years to examine the legacy of the droughts in terms of impacts on the ecological structure and function of the forests in years following the droughts and the subsequent carbon exchange. Using data from microwave satellite sensors of rainfall, canopy backscatter (2000-2014) and GRACE and GOSAT, we show that the 2005 drought has a legacy of 2-5 years in western Amazonia, by increasing the disturbance in canopy trees and impacting the gross primary production of the forest significantly. Amazonian forests, particularly in the southern region were again impacted by the 2010 mega-drought, causing a legacy of 2-4 years with potential decrease in GPP and productivity observed by GOSAT fluorescence. The persistent of low canopy water content observed by a joint QSCAT and OceanSAT observations were linked to a delay in recharging of the hydrological system observed by GRACE over a period of 2-5 years. The results suggest that Amazonian forests with distinct dry seasons in southern and western regions of the basin are potentially more vulnerable to droughts compared to regions with less seasonality. The long recovery time from the 2005 and 2010 droughts suggests that the occurence of droughts in Amazonia at 5-10 year frequency may lead to long-term alteration of the forest structure and function. Keywords: Amazonia, drought, carbon exchange, biomass loss, GPP

Revisiting drought impact on tree mortality and carbon fluxes in ORCHIDEE-CAN DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joetzjer, E.; Bartlett, M. K.; Sack, L.; Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.

2016-12-01

In the past decade, two extreme droughts in the Amazon rainforest led to a perturbation of carbon cycle dynamics and forest structure, partly through an increase in tree mortality. While there is a relatively strong consensus in CMIP5 projections for an increase in both frequency and intensity of droughts across the Amazon, the potential for forest die-off constitutes a large uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle feedbacks. Two long-term through fall exclusion experiments (TFE) provided novel observations of Amazonian ecosystem responses under drought. These experiments also provided a great opportunity to evaluate and improve models' behavior under drought. While current DGVMs use a wide array of algorithms to represent drought effect on ecosystem, most are associated with large uncertainty for representing drought-induced mortality, and require updating to include current information of physiological processes. During very strong droughts, the leaves desiccate and stems may undergo catastrophic embolism. However, even before that point, stomata close, to minimize excessive water loss and risk of hydraulic failure, which reduces carbon assimilation. Here, we describe a new parameterization of the stomatal conductance and mortality processes induced by drought using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic vegetation model and test it using the two TFE results. We implemented a direct climate effect on mortality through catastrophic stem embolism using a new hydraulic architecture to represent the hydraulic potential gradient from the soil to the leaves based on vulnerability curves, and tree capacitance. In addition, growth primary productivity and transpiration are down-regulated by the hydraulic architecture in case of drought through stomatal conductance, which depends on the hydraulic potential of the leaf. We also explored the role of non structural carbohydrates (NSC) on hydraulic failure and mortality following the idea that stored NSC serves a critical osmotic function. Our results suggest that models have the capacity to represent drought induced individual mortality from a mechanistic perspective allowing a better understanding of the drought impacts on carbon cycle and forest structure in the tropics.

Repeated drought alters resistance of seed bank regeneration in baldcypress swamps of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lei, Ting; Middleton, Beth A.

2018-01-01

Recurring drying and wetting events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity in predicted future droughts in the central USA and alter the regeneration potential of species. We explored the resistance of seed banks to successive droughts in 53 sites across the nine locations in baldcypress swamps in the southeastern USA. Along the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico, we investigated the capacity of seed banks to retain viable seeds after successive periods of drying and wetting in a greenhouse study. Mean differences in species richness and seed density were compared to examine the interactions of successive droughts, geographical location and water regime. The results showed that both species richness and total density of germinating seedlings decreased over repeated drought trials. These responses were more pronounced in geographical areas with higher annual mean temperature. In seed banks across the southeastern swamp region, most species were exhausted after Trial 2 or 3, except for semiaquatic species in Illinois and Tennessee, and aquatic species in Texas. Distinct geographical trends in seed bank resistance to drought demonstrate that climate-induced drying of baldcypress swamps could influence the regeneration of species differently across their ranges. Despite the health of adult individuals, lack of regeneration may push ecosystems into a relict status. Seed bank depletion by germination without replenishment may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts far less severe than megadrought. Nevertheless, the protection of moist refugia might aid conservation.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal association enhances drought tolerance potential of promising bioenergy grass (Saccharum arundinaceum retz.).

PubMed

Mirshad, P P; Puthur, Jos T

2016-07-01

The influence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) (Glomus spp.) on some physiological and biochemical characteristics of bioenergy grass Saccharum arundinaceum subjected to drought stress was studied. The symbiotic association of Glomus spp. was established with S. arundinaceum, a potential bioenergy grass as evident from the increase in percentage of root infection and distribution frequency of vesicles when compared with non-arbuscular mycorrhizal plants. AMF-treated plants exhibited an enhanced accumulation of osmolytes such as sugars and proline and also increased protein content under drought. AMF association significantly increased the accumulation of non-enzymatic antioxidants like phenols, ascorbate and glutathione as well as enhanced the activities of antioxidant enzymes such as SOD (superoxide dismutase), APX (ascorbate peroxidase) and GPX (guaiacol peroxidase) resulting in reduced lipid peroxidation in S. arundinaceum. AMF symbiosis also ameliorated the drought-induced reduction of total chlorophyll content and activities of photosystem I and II. The maximum quantum efficiency of PS II (F v/F m) and potential photochemical efficiency (F v/F o) were higher in AMF plants as compared to non-AMF plants under drought stress. These results indicate that AMF association alleviate drought stress in S. arundinaceum by the accumulation of osmolytes and non-enzymatic antioxidants and enhanced activities of antioxidant enzymes, and hence, the photosynthetic efficiency is improved resulting in increased biomass production. AMF association with energy grasses also improves the acclimatization of S. arundinaceum for growing in marginal lands of drought-affected soils.

How tree roots respond to drought

PubMed Central

Brunner, Ivano; Herzog, Claude; Dawes, Melissa A.; Arend, Matthias; Sperisen, Christoph

2015-01-01

The ongoing climate change is characterized by increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. In addition, there has been an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as drought. Episodes of drought induce a series of interconnected effects, all of which have the potential to alter the carbon balance of forest ecosystems profoundly at different scales of plant organization and ecosystem functioning. During recent years, considerable progress has been made in the understanding of how aboveground parts of trees respond to drought and how these responses affect carbon assimilation. In contrast, processes of belowground parts are relatively underrepresented in research on climate change. In this review, we describe current knowledge about responses of tree roots to drought. Tree roots are capable of responding to drought through a variety of strategies that enable them to avoid and tolerate stress. Responses include root biomass adjustments, anatomical alterations, and physiological acclimations. The molecular mechanisms underlying these responses are characterized to some extent, and involve stress signaling and the induction of numerous genes, leading to the activation of tolerance pathways. In addition, mycorrhizas seem to play important protective roles. The current knowledge compiled in this review supports the view that tree roots are well equipped to withstand drought situations and maintain morphological and physiological functions as long as possible. Further, the reviewed literature demonstrates the important role of tree roots in the functioning of forest ecosystems and highlights the need for more research in this emerging field. PMID:26284083

Review of complex networks application in hydroclimatic extremes with an implementation to characterize spatio-temporal drought propagation in continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok

2017-12-01

The quantification of spatio-temporal hydroclimatic extreme events is a key variable in water resources planning, disaster mitigation, and preparing climate resilient society. However, quantification of these extreme events has always been a great challenge, which is further compounded by climate variability and change. Recently complex network theory was applied in earth science community to investigate spatial connections among hydrologic fluxes (e.g., rainfall and streamflow) in water cycle. However, there are limited applications of complex network theory for investigating hydroclimatic extreme events. This article attempts to provide an overview of complex networks and extreme events, event synchronization method, construction of networks, their statistical significance and the associated network evaluation metrics. For illustration purpose, we apply the complex network approach to study the spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Continental USA (CONUS). A different drought threshold leads to a new drought event as well as different socio-economic implications. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore the role of thresholds on spatio-temporal evolution of drought through network analysis. In this study, long term (1900-2016) Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) was selected for spatio-temporal drought analysis using three network-based metrics (i.e., strength, direction and distance). The results indicate that the drought events propagate differently at different thresholds associated with initiation of drought events. The direction metrics indicated that onset of mild drought events usually propagate in a more spatially clustered and uniform approach compared to onsets of moderate droughts. The distance metric shows that the drought events propagate for longer distance in western part compared to eastern part of CONUS. We believe that the network-aided metrics utilized in this study can be an important tool in advancing our knowledge on drought propagation as well as other hydroclimatic extreme events. Although the propagation of droughts is investigated using the network approach, however process (physics) based approaches is essential to further understand the dynamics of hydroclimatic extreme events.

Drought monitoring of Shandong province in late 2010 using data acquired by Terra MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mingzhi; Huang, He; Liu, Suihua; Yan, Lei

2011-12-01

Drought has been a frequently happened type of disaster in China, and it has caused massive losses to people's lives. Especially the drought happened in Shandong province in the late 2010, which was recognized as the severest in the past five hundred years in some areas. Evaluation must be done in order to make proper rescue plans. Instead of collecting data site by site, remote sensing is an efficient way to acquire data in a large area, which is very helpful for drought identification. Some normal ways in remote sensing for drought analysis are explained and compared in this paper, and then the VSWI method is chosen to evaluation the drought in Shandong province. Because of its free data policy and wide availability, the data sets acquired by Terra-MODIS are chosen to identify the drought severity in Shandong province. From the drought severity level images we can see that almost the whole area of Shandong province was lack of water except the Weishan Lake and eastern coastline regions where large area of water exists. The southwest region, including Heze and Jining, is in moderate drought condition, where it is used to be an important grain-producing area. This drought condition will inevitably put a negative effect on its grain production. The central and southern areas were in severe drought condition, but fortunately these areas are of hills and mountains, so the drought will only affect the lives of residents. The northern parts, including Dezhou and Bingzhou areas, were also in severe drought condition, and these regions are also important for grain-producing, so the severe drought disaster will lead to a sharp grain output cut. This analysis results will not only shed light on the rescue process, but also give the government some clues on how to maintain the grain supply safety.

The European Drought Observatory (EDO): Current State and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, J.; Singleton, A.; Sepulcre, G.; Micale, F.; Barbosa, P.

2012-12-01

Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and improving medium to long-range probabilistic drought forecasting products. Probabilistic forecasts are attractive in that they provide an estimate of the range of uncertainty in a particular forecast. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in the development of the system as well as an outlook on the future developments.

Non-linear effects of drought under shade: reconciling physiological and ecological models in plant communities.

PubMed

Holmgren, Milena; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Quero, José Luis; Valladares, Fernando

2012-06-01

The combined effects of shade and drought on plant performance and the implications for species interactions are highly debated in plant ecology. Empirical evidence for positive and negative effects of shade on the performance of plants under dry conditions supports two contrasting theoretical models about the role of shade under dry conditions: the trade-off and the facilitation hypotheses. We performed a meta-analysis of field and greenhouse studies evaluating the effects of drought at two or more irradiance levels on nine response variables describing plant physiological condition, growth, and survival. We explored differences in plant response across plant functional types, ecosystem types and methodological approaches. The data were best fit using quadratic models indicating a humped-back shape response to drought along an irradiance gradient for survival, whole plant biomass, maximum photosynthetic capacity, stomatal conductance and maximal photochemical efficiency. Drought effects were ameliorated at intermediate irradiance, becoming more severe at higher or lower light levels. This general pattern was maintained when controlling for potential variations in the strength of the drought treatment among light levels. Our quantitative meta-analysis indicates that dense shade ameliorates drought especially among drought-intolerant and shade-tolerant species. Wet tropical species showed larger negative effects of drought with increasing irradiance than semiarid and cold temperate species. Non-linear responses to irradiance were stronger under field conditions than under controlled greenhouse conditions. Non-linear responses to drought along the irradiance gradient reconciliate opposing views in plant ecology, indicating that facilitation is more likely within certain range of environmental conditions, fading under deep shade, especially for drought-tolerant species.

Assessment of the 1998–2001 drought impact on forest health in southeastern forests: an analysis of drought severity using FHM data

Treesearch

R. J. Klos; G. G. Wang; W. L. Bauerle

2010-01-01

Analyses of forest health indicators monitored through the Forest Health and Monitoring (FHM) program suggested that weather was the most important cause of tree mortality. Drought is of particular importance among weather variables because several global climate change scenarios predicted more frequent and/or intense drought in the Southeastern United States. During...

Analysis of Gene Expression and Physiological Responses in Three Mexican Maize Landraces under Drought Stress and Recovery Irrigation

PubMed Central

Hayano-Kanashiro, Corina; Calderón-Vázquez, Carlos; Ibarra-Laclette, Enrique; Herrera-Estrella, Luis; Simpson, June

2009-01-01

Background Drought is one of the major constraints for plant productivity worldwide. Different mechanisms of drought-tolerance have been reported for several plant species including maize. However, the differences in global gene expression between drought-tolerant and susceptible genotypes and their relationship to physiological adaptations to drought are largely unknown. The study of the differences in global gene expression between tolerant and susceptible genotypes could provide important information to design more efficient breeding programs to produce maize varieties better adapted to water limiting conditions. Methodology/Principal Findings Changes in physiological responses and gene expression patterns were studied under drought stress and recovery in three Mexican maize landraces which included two drought tolerant (Cajete criollo and Michoacán 21) and one susceptible (85-2) genotypes. Photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, soil and leaf water potentials were monitored throughout the experiment and microarray analysis was carried out on transcripts obtained at 10 and 17 days following application of stress and after recovery irrigation. The two tolerant genotypes show more drastic changes in global gene expression which correlate with different physiological mechanisms of adaptation to drought. Differences in the kinetics and number of up- and down-regulated genes were observed between the tolerant and susceptible maize genotypes, as well as differences between the two tolerant genotypes. Interestingly, the most dramatic differences between the tolerant and susceptible genotypes were observed during recovery irrigation, suggesting that the tolerant genotypes activate mechanisms that allow more efficient recovery after a severe drought. Conclusions/Significance A correlation between levels of photosynthesis and transcription under stress was observed and differences in the number, type and expression levels of transcription factor families were also identified under drought and recovery between the three maize landraces. Gene expression analysis suggests that the drought tolerant landraces have a greater capacity to rapidly modulate more genes under drought and recovery in comparison to the susceptible landrace. Modulation of a greater number of differentially expressed genes of different TF gene families is an important characteristic of the tolerant genotypes. Finally, important differences were also noted between the tolerant landraces that underlie different mechanisms of achieving tolerance. PMID:19888455

Extreme Drought Event and Shrub Invasion Reduce Oak Trees Functioning and Resilience on Water-Limited Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, M. C.; Lobo-do-Vale, R.; Lecomte, X.; David, T. S.; Pinto, J. G.; Bugalho, M. N.; Werner, C.

2016-12-01

Extreme droughts and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning. Shrub encroachment is increasing in many regions worldwide and extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, namely in the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, little is known about how these drivers may interact and affect ecosystem functioning and resilience Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event in a Mediterranean oak woodland, we show that the combination of native shrub invasion and extreme drought reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of the key-stone oak tree species. We established six 25 x 25 m paired plots in a shrub (Cistus ladanifer L.) encroached Mediterranean cork-oak (Quercus suber L.) woodland. We measured sapflow and pre-dawn leaf water potential of trees and shrubs and soil water content in all plots during four years. We determined the resilience of tree transpiration to evaluate to what extent trees recovered from the extreme drought event. From February to November 2011 we conducted baseline measurements for plot comparison. In November 2011 all the shrubs from one of all the paired plots were cut and removed. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub, which further increased after the extreme drought. Simultaneously, tree transpiration in invaded plots declined more sharply (67 ± 13 %) than in plots cleared from shrubs (31 ± 11%) relative to the pre-drought year (2011). Trees in invaded plots were not able to recover in the following wetter year showing lower resilience to the extreme drought event. Our results imply that in Mediterranean-type of climates invasion by water spending species coupled with the projected recurrent extreme droughts will cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of trees to be overcome, thus increasing the probability of tree mortality.

Decadal-scale ecosystem memory reveals interactive effects of drought and insect defoliation on boreal forest productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; D'Orangeville, L.; Dawson, A.; Kneeshaw, D.; Finley, A. O.

2017-12-01

Drought and insect defoliation have lasting impacts on the dynamics of the boreal forest. Impacts are expected to worsen under global climate change as hotter, drier conditions forecast for much of the boreal increase the frequency and severity of drought and defoliation events. Contemporary ecological theory predicts physiological feedbacks in tree responses to drought and defoliation amplify impacts potentially causing large-scale productivity losses and forest mortality. Quantifying the interactive impacts of drought and insect defoliation on regional forest health is difficult given delayed and persistent responses to disturbance events. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate forest growth responses to interactions between drought and insect defoliation by species and size class. Delayed and persistent responses to past drought and defoliation were quantified using empirical memory functions allowing for improved detection of interactions. The model was applied to tree-ring data from stands in Western (Alberta) and Eastern (Québec) regions of the Canadian boreal forest with different species compositions, disturbance regimes, and regional climates. Western stands experience chronic water deficit and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) defoliation; Eastern stands experience irregular water deficit and spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation. Ecosystem memory to past water deficit peaked in the year previous to growth and decayed to zero within 5 (West) to 8 (East) years; memory to past defoliation ranged from 8 (West) to 12 (East) years. The drier regional climate and faster FTC defoliation dynamics (compared to SBW) likely contribute to shorter ecosystem memory in the West. Drought and defoliation had the largest negative impact on large-diameter, host tree growth. Surprisingly, a positive interaction was observed between drought and defoliation for large-diameter, non-host trees likely due to reduced stand-level competition for water. Results highlight the temporal persistence of drought and defoliation stress on boreal forest growth dynamics and provide an empirical estimate of their interactive effects with explicit uncertainty.

Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2010-05-01

Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help building effective adaptation strategies. This work thus aims at showing the potential of standardized indices to describe changes in drought characteristics, but also possible pitfalls and potentially misleading interpretations.

Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

2014-05-01

The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts were explained best by shorter, seasonal indices (2-6 months), while impacts to the Energy sector were best explained by long-duration (12-24 month) anomalies, related to hydropower reservoir storage. Notably, drought impacts in the UK were not affected by short (< 6 month) anomalies, which may point to successful management strategies or underlying geoclimatic differences. By identifying the climatological drought indices most strongly linked to drought impact occurrence and generating regression equations that can predict the likelihood of a drought event, this research is a valuable step towards measuring and predicting drought risk. This work provides a methodological example using only a subset of European countries and impact types, but the accuracy and scope of these results will improve as the EDII grows with further contributions and collaboration.

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier;

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Luanhe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yixuan; Zhang, Ting; Chen, Xu; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping

2018-02-01

The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought are investigated for Luanhe River basin, using monthly precipitation data from 26 stations covering the common period of 1958-2011. The spatial pattern of drought was assessed by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on 3- and 12-month time scales. In addition, annual SPI and seasonal SPIs (including spring SPI, summer SPI, autumn SPI, and winter SPI) were also defined and considered in this study to characterize seasonal and annual drought conditions, respectively. For all seven SPI cases, three distinctive sub-regions with different temporal evolutions of droughts are well identified, respectively, representing the southeast, middle, and northwest of the Luanhe River basin. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test with a trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) procedure and Sen's method were used to determine the temporal trends in the annual and seasonal SPI time series. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was employed for further detecting the periodical features of drought condition in each sub-region. Results of MK and Sen's tests show a general tendency of intensification in summer drought over the entire basin, while a significant mitigating trend in spring drought. On the whole, an aggravating trend of inter-annual drought is discovered across the basin. Based on the CWT, the drought variability in the basin is generally dominated by 16- to 64-month cycles, and the 2- to 6-year cycles appear to be obvious when concerned with annual and seasonal droughts. Furthermore, a cross wavelet analysis was performed to examine the possible links between the drought conditions and large-scale climate patterns. The teleconnections of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO show significant influences on the regional droughts principally concentrated in the 16- to 64-month period, maybe responsible for the physical causes of the cyclical behavior of drought occurrences. PDO and AMO also highlight a noteworthy correlation with drought variability on a decadal scale (around 128-month period). The findings of this study will provide valuable references for regional drought mitigation and water resource management.

Contrasting Changes Caused by Drought and Submergence Stresses in Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon)

PubMed Central

Ye, Tiantian; Shi, Haitao; Wang, Yanping; Chan, Zhulong

2015-01-01

In this study, we investigated the mechanisms by which bermudagrass withstands the drought and submergence stresses through physiological, proteomic and metabolomic approaches. The results showed that significant physiological changes were observed after drought treatment, while only slight changes after submergence treatment, including compatible solute contents, ROS levels and antioxidant enzyme activities. Proteomics results showed that 81 proteins regulated by drought or submergence treatment were identified by MALDI-TOF-MS. Among them, 76 proteins were modulated by drought stress with 46 increased abundance and 30 decreased abundance. Forty-five showed abundance changes after submergence treatment with 10 increased and 35 decreased. Pathway enrichment analysis revealed that pathways of amino acid metabolism and mitochondrial electron transport/ATP synthesis were only enriched by drought treatment, while other pathways including photosynthesis, biodegradation of xenobiotics, oxidative pentose phosphate, glycolysis and redox were commonly over-represented after both drought and submergence treatments. Metabolomic analysis indicated that most of the metabolites were up-regulated by drought stress, while 34 of 40 metabolites contents exhibited down-regulation or no significant changes when exposed to submergence stress, including sugars and sugar alcohols. These data indicated that drought stress extensively promoted photosynthesis and redox metabolisms while submergence stress caused declined metabolisms and dormancy in Cynodon dactylon. Taken together, the quiescence strategy with retarded growth might allow bermudagrass to be adaptive to long-term submerged environment, while activation of photosynthesis and redox, and accumulation of compatible solutes and molecular chaperones increased bermudagrass tolerance to drought stress. PMID:26617615

RESILIENCE TO DROUGHTS IN MAMMALS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING VULNERABILITY OF A SINGLE SPECIES.

PubMed

Rymer, Tasmin L; Pillay, Neville; Schradin, Carsten

2016-06-01

ABSTRACT The frequency and severity of droughts in certain areas is increasing as a consequence of climate change. The associated environmental challenges, including high temperatures, low food, and water availability, have affected, and will affect, many populations. Our aims are to review the behavioral, physiological, and morphological adaptations of mammals to arid environments, and to aid research- ers and nature conservationists about which traits they should study to assess whether or not their study species will be able to cope with droughts. We provide a suite of traits that should be considered when making predictions about species resilience to drought. We define and differentiate between general adaptations, specialized adaptations, and exaptations, and argue that specialized adaptations are of little interest in establishing how nondesert specialists will cope with droughts. Attention should be placed on general adaptations of semidesert species and assess whether these exist as exaptations in nondesert species. We conclude that phenotypic flexibility is the most important general adaptation that may promote species resilience. Thus, to assess whether a species will be able to cope with increasing aridity, it is important to establish the degree offlexibility of traits identified in semidesert species that confer afitness advantage under drying conditions.

Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-01-01

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

Comparative analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Pearl River basin during the period 1960-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, K.; Wu, C.; Hu, B.; Niu, J.

2017-12-01

Drought is one of the major natural hazards that can have devastating impacts on the regional environment, agriculture, and water resources. Previous studies have conducted the assessment of historic changes in meteorological drought over various regional scales but rarely considered hydrological drought due to limited hydrological observations. Here, we use a long-term (1960-2012) gridded hydro-meteorological data to present a comparative analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Pearl River basin in southern China using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized runoff index (SRI). The variation in SPI and SRI at four different timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month) is investigated using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) method and continuous wavelet transform (CWT). The results indicate that the correlation between SPI and SRI is strong over the Pearl River basin and tends to be stronger at the longer timescale. Meanwhile, the periodic oscillation pattern of SPI becomes more consistent with that of SRI with the increased timescale. The SPI can be used as a substitute for SRI to represent the hydrological drought at the long-term scale. Overall there is a noticeably wetting trend mainly in the eastern parts and a significant drying trend mainly in the western regions and the downstream area of the Pearl River basin. The variability of meteorological drought is significant mainly in the eastern and western regions, while the variability of hydrological drought tends to be larger mainly in the western region. CWT analysis indicates a period of 0.75-7 years in both meteorological and hydrological droughts during the period 1960-2012 in the study region.