The role of stochastic storms on hillslope runoff generation and connectivity in a dryland basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaelides, K.; Singer, M. B.; Mudd, S. M.

2016-12-01

Despite low annual rainfall, dryland basins can generate significant surface runoff during certain rainstorms, which can cause flash flooding and high rates of erosion. However, it remains challenging to anticipate the nature and frequency of runoff generation in hydrological systems which are driven by spatially and temporally stochastic rainstorms. In particular, the stochasticity of rainfall presents challenges to simulating the hydrological response of dryland basins and understanding flow connectivity from hillslopes to the channel. Here we simulate hillslope runoff generation using rainfall characteristics produced by a simple stochastic rainfall generator, which is based on a rich rainfall dataset from the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Arizona, USA. We assess hillslope runoff generation using the hydrological model, COUP2D, driven by a subset of characteristic output from multiple ensembles of decadal monsoonal rainfall from the stochastic rainfall generator. The rainfall generator operates across WGEW by simulating storms with areas smaller than the basin and enables explicit characterization of rainfall characteristics at any location. We combine the characteristics of rainfall intensity and duration with data on rainstorm area and location to model the surface runoff properties (depth, velocity, duration, distance downslope) on a range of hillslopes within the basin derived from LiDAR analysis. We also analyze connectivity of flow from hillslopes to the channel for various combinations of hillslopes and storms. This approach provides a framework for understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff generation and connectivity that is faithful to the hydrological characteristics of dryland environments.

Vegetation in drylands: Effects on wind flow and aeolian sediment transport

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Drylands are characterised by patchy vegetation, erodible surfaces and erosive aeolian processes. Empirical and modelling studies have shown that vegetation elements provide drag on the overlying airflow, thus affecting wind velocity profiles and altering erosive dynamics on desert surfaces. However...

Modeling Soil Sodicity Problems under Dryland and Irrigated Conditions: Case Studies in Argentina and Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso

2014-05-01

Salt-affected soils, both saline and sodic, my develop both under dryland and irrigated conditions, affecting negatively the physical and chemical soil properties, the crop production and the animal and human health.Among the development processes of salt-affected soils, the processes of sodification have been generally received less attention and is less understood than the development of saline soils. Although in both of them, hydrological processes are involved in their development, in the case of sodic soils we have to consider some additional chemical and physicochemical reactions, making more difficult their modeling and prediction. In this contribution we present two case studies: one related to the development of sodic soils in the lowlands of the Argentina Pampas, under dryland conditions and sub-humid temperate climate, with pastures for cattle production; the other deals with the development of sodic soils in the Colombia Cauca Valley, under irrigated conditions and tropical sub-humid climate, in lands used for sugarcane cropping dedicated to sugar and ethanol production. In both cases the development of sodicity in the surface soil is mainly related to the effects of the composition and level of groundwater, affected in the case of Argentina Pampas by the off-site changes in dryland use and management in the upper zones and by the drainage conditions in the lowlands, and in the case of the Cauca Valley, by the on-site irrigation and drainage management in lands with sugarcane. There is shown how the model SALSODIMAR, developed by the main author, based on the balance of water and soluble componentes of both the irrigation water and groundwater under different water and land management conditions, may be adapted for the diagnosis and prediction of both problems, and for the selection of alternatives for their management and amelioration.

Expanding dryland ecosystem flux datasets enable novel quantification of water availability and carbon exchange in Southwestern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Smith, W. K.; Litvak, M. E.; MacBean, N.

2017-12-01

Global-scale studies suggest that water-limited dryland ecosystems dominate the increasing trend in magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, the terrestrial biosphere models and remote sensing models used in large-scale analyses are poorly constrained by flux measurements in drylands, which are under-represented in global datasets. In this talk, I will address this gap with eddy covariance data from 30 ecosystems across the Southwest of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100 - 1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2 - 25 °C, and records of 3 - 10 years each (160 site-years). This extensive dryland dataset enables new approaches including 1) separation of temporal and spatial patterns to infer fast and slow ecosystem responses to change, and 2) partitioning of precipitation into hydrologic losses, evaporation, and ecosystem-available water. I will then compare direct flux measurements with models and remote sensing used to scale fluxes regionally. Combining eddy covariance and streamflow measurements, I will show how evapotranspiration (ET), which is the efflux of soil moisture remaining after hydrologic losses, is a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive ecosystem CO2 exchange. Furthermore, I will present a novel method to partition ET into evaporation and transpiration using the tight coupling of transpiration and photosynthesis. In contrast with typical carbon sink function in wetter, more-studied regions, dryland sites express an annual net carbon uptake varying from -350 to +330 gC m-2. Due to less respiration losses relative to photosynthesis gains during winter, declines in winter precipitation across the Southwest since 1999 are reducing annual net CO2 uptake. Interannual variability of net uptake is larger than for wetter regions, and half the sites pivot between sinks in wet years to sources in dry years. Biospheric and remote sensing models capture only 20-30 % of interannual variability in ET and CO2 fluxes, suggesting the impact of dryland regions on the variability of global CO2 may be up to 3 - 5 times larger than current estimates. Finally, I will highlight progress in ongoing work to develop improved remote sensing models of dryland CO2 uptake using novel indices including solar-induced fluorescence.

Tolerance of the eriophyid mite Aceria salsola to UV-A light and implications for biological control of Russian thistle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Aceria salsolae (Acari: Eriophyidae) is being evaluated as a candidate biological control agent of Russian thistle (Salsola spp., Chenopodiaceae), a major invasive weed of rangelands and dryland crops in the western U.S. Prior laboratory host range testing under artificial lighting indicated reprodu...

Applying the successional weed management model for revegetating a yellow starthistle-infested dryland pasture in the Chihuahuan Desert

Treesearch

William D. Sommers; Larry D. Howery; Rosemary L. Pendleton; Richard D. Lee; Burton K. Pendleton

2011-01-01

A three-year study was conducted in the Chihuahuan Desert in Southwestern New Mexico to evaluate the effectiveness of revegetating a dryland pasture that was heavily infested with yellow starthistle within the context of the successional weed management model. A prescribed burn treatment of the entire study site (designed disturbance) was followed by single-entry...

Does the stress-gradient hypothesis hold water? Disentangling spatial and temporal variation in plant effects on soil moisture in dryland systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Bradford, John B.; Armas, Cristina; Prieto, Ivan; Pugnaire, Francisco I.

2016-01-01

Taken together, the results of this simulation study suggest that plant effects on soil moisture are predictable based on relatively general relationships between precipitation inputs and differential evaporation and transpiration rates between plant and interspace microsites that are largely driven by temperature. In particular, this study highlights the importance of differentiating between temporal and spatial variation in weather and climate, respectively, in determining plant effects on available soil moisture. Rather than focusing on the somewhat coarse-scale predictions of the SGH, it may be more beneficial to explicitly incorporate plant effects on soil moisture into predictive models of plant-plant interaction outcomes in drylands.

[Ecological management model of agriculture-pasture ecotone based on the theory of energy and material flow--a case study in Houshan dryland area of Inner Mongolia].

PubMed

Fan, Jinlong; Pan, Zhihua; Zhao, Ju; Zheng, Dawei; Tuo, Debao; Zhao, Peiyi

2004-04-01

The degradation of ecological environment in the agriculture-pasture ecotone in northern China has been paid more attentions. Based on our many years' research and under the guide of energy and material flow theory, this paper put forward an ecological management model, with a hill as the basic cell and according to the natural, social and economic characters of Houshan dryland farming area inside the north agriculture-pasture ecotone. The input and output of three models, i.e., the traditional along-slope-tillage model, the artificial grassland model and the ecological management model, were observed and recorded in detail in 1999. Energy and material flow analysis based on field test showed that compared with traditional model, ecological management model could increase solar use efficiency by 8.3%, energy output by 8.7%, energy conversion efficiency by 19.4%, N output by 26.5%, N conversion efficiency by 57.1%, P output by 12.1%, P conversion efficiency by 45.0%, and water use efficiency by 17.7%. Among the models, artificial grassland model had the lowest solar use efficiency, energy output and energy conversion efficiency; while the ecological management model had the most outputs and benefits, was the best model with high economic effect, and increased economic benefits by 16.1%, compared with the traditional model.

Understanding the relationship between vegetation phenology and productivity across key dryland ecosystem types through the integration of PhenoCam, satellite, and eddy covariance data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, D.; Scott, R. L.; Moore, D. J.; Biederman, J. A.; Smith, W. K.

2017-12-01

Land surface phenology (LSP) - defined as remotely sensed seasonal variations in vegetation greenness - is intrinsically linked to seasonal carbon uptake, and is thus commonly used as a proxy for vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity; GPP). Yet, the relationship between LSP and GPP remains uncertain, particularly for understudied dryland ecosystems characterized by relatively large spatial and temporal variability. Here, we explored the relationship between LSP and the phenology of GPP for three dominant dryland ecosystem types, and we evaluated how these relationships change as a function of spatial and temporal scale. We focused on three long-term dryland eddy covariance flux tower sites: Walnut Gulch Lucky Hills Shrubland (WHS), Walnut Gulch Kendall Grassland (WKG), and Santa Rita Mesquite (SRM). We analyzed daily canopy-level, 16-day 30m, and 8-day 500m time series of greenness indices from PhenoCam, Landsat 7 ETM+/Landsat 8 OLI, and MODIS, respectively. We first quantified the impact of spatial scale by temporally resampling canopy-level PhenoCam, 30m Landsat, and 500m MODIS to 16-day intervals and then comparing against flux tower GPP estimates. We next quantified the impact of temporal scale by spatially resampling daily PhenoCam, 16-day Landsat, and 8-day MODIS to 500m time series and then comparing against flux tower GPP estimates. We find evidence of critical periods of decoupling between LSP and the phenology of GPP that vary according to the spatial and temporal scale, and as a function of ecosystem type. Our results provide key insight into dryland LSP and GPP dynamics that can be used in future efforts to improve ecosystem process models and satellite-based vegetation productivity algorithms.

Fine-resolution repeat topographic surveying of dryland landscapes using UAS-based structure-from-motion photogrammetry: Assessing accuracy and precision against traditional ground-based erosion measurements

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry from unmanned aircraft system (UAS) imagery is an emerging tool for repeat topographic surveying of dryland erosion. These methods are particularly appealing due to the ability to cover large landscapes compared to field methods and at reduced costs and hig...

Modeling the cadmium balance in Australian agricultural systems in view of potential impacts on food and water quality.

PubMed

de Vries, W; McLaughlin, M J

2013-09-01

The historical build up and future cadmium (Cd) concentrations in top soils and in crops of four Australian agricultural systems are predicted with a mass balance model, focusing on the period 1900-2100. The systems include a rotation of dryland cereals, a rotation of sugarcane and peanuts/soybean, intensive dairy production and intensive horticulture. The input of Cd to soil is calculated from fertilizer application and atmospheric deposition and also examines options including biosolid and animal manure application in the sugarcane rotation and dryland cereal production systems. Cadmium output from the soil is calculated from leaching to deeper horizons and removal with the harvested crop or with livestock products. Parameter values for all Cd fluxes were based on a number of measurements on Australian soil-plant systems. In the period 1900-2000, soil Cd concentrations were predicted to increase on average between 0.21 mg kg(-1) in dryland cereals, 0.42 mg kg(-1) in intensive agriculture and 0.68 mg kg(-1) in dairy production, which are within the range of measured increases in soils in these systems. Predicted soil concentrations exceed critical soil Cd concentrations, based on food quality criteria for Cd in crops during the simulation period in clay-rich soils under dairy production and intensive horticulture. Predicted dissolved Cd concentrations in soil pore water exceed a ground water quality criterion of 2 μg l(-1) in light textured soils, except for the sugarcane rotation due to large water leaching fluxes. Results suggest that the present fertilizer Cd inputs in Australia are in excess of the long-term critical loads in heavy-textured soils for dryland cereals and that all other systems are at low risk. Calculated critical Cd/P ratios in P fertilizers vary from <50 to >1000 mg Cd kg P(-1) for the different soil, crop and environmental conditions applied. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the central Great Plains, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural systems models are essential tools to assess potential climate change (CC) impacts on crop production and help guide policy decisions. In this study, impacts of GCM projected CC on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow (WF), wheat-corn-fallow (WCF), and wheat-corn-millet (WCM) at Akro...

Kansas environmental and resource study: A Great Plains model. Extraction of agricultural statistics from ERTS-1 data of Kansas. [wheat inventory and agriculture land use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morain, S. A. (Principal Investigator); Williams, D. L.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Wheat area, yield, and production statistics as derived from satellite image analysis, combined with a weather model, are presented for a ten county area in southwest Kansas. The data (representing the 1972-73 crop year) are compared for accuracy against both the USDA August estimate and its final (official) tabulation. The area estimates from imagery for both dryland and irrigated winter wheat were within 5% of the official figures for the same area, and predated them by almost one year. Yield on dryland wheat was estimated by the Thompson weather model to within 0.1% of the observed yield. A combined irrigated and dryland wheat production estimate for the ten county area was completed in July, 1973 and was within 1% of the production reported by USDA in February, 1974.

From Patterns to Function in Living Systems: Dryland Ecosystems as a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meron, Ehud

2018-03-01

Spatial patterns are ubiquitous in animate matter. Besides their intricate structure and beauty they generally play functional roles. The capacity of living systems to remain functional in changing environments is a question of utmost importance, but its intimate relationship to pattern formation is largely unexplored. Here, we address this relationship using dryland vegetation as a case study. Following a brief introduction to pattern-formation theory, we describe a mathematical model that captures several mechanisms of vegetation pattern formation and discuss ecological contexts that showcase different mechanisms. Using this model, we unravel the different vegetation patterns that keep dryland ecosystems viable along the rainfall gradient, identify multistability ranges where fronts separating domains of alternative stable states exist, and highlight the roles of front dynamics in mitigating or reversing desertification. The utility of satellite images in testing model predictions is discussed. An outlook on outstanding open problems concludes this paper.

Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration estimation to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith methods in the study of global drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Zheng, Ziyan; Duan, Yawen

2017-12-01

Drylands are among those regions most sensitive to climate and environmental changes and human-induced perturbations. The most widely accepted definition of the term dryland is a ratio, called the Surface Wetness Index (SWI), of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET) being below 0.65. PET is commonly estimated using the Thornthwaite (PET Th) and Penman-Monteith equations (PET PM). The present study compared spatiotemporal characteristics of global drylands based on the SWI with PET Th and PET PM. Results showed vast differences between PET Th and PET PM; however, the SWI derived from the two kinds of PET showed broadly similar characteristics in the interdecadal variability of global and continental drylands, except in North America, with high correlation coefficients ranging from 0.58 to 0.89. It was found that, during 1901-2014, global hyper-arid and semi-arid regions expanded, arid and dry sub-humid regions contracted, and drylands underwent interdecadal fluctuation. This was because precipitation variations made major contributions, whereas PET changes contributed to a much lesser degree. However, distinct differences in the interdecadal variability of semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions were found. This indicated that the influence of PET changes was comparable to that of precipitation variations in the global dry-wet transition zone. Additionally, the contribution of PET changes to the variations in global and continental drylands gradually enhanced with global warming, and the Thornthwaite method was found to be increasingly less applicable under climate change.

Projected dryland cropping system shifts in the Pacific Northwest in response to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agriculture in the dryland region of the Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW, including northern Idaho, eastern Washington and northern Oregon) is typically characterized based on annual rainfall and associated distribution of cropping systems that have evolved in response to biophysical and socio-econom...

Wheat yield and yield stability of eight dryland crop rotations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow (WF) dryland production system employed in the Central Great Plains has evolved in the past 40 years to include a diversity of other crops, with a reduction in fallow frequency. Wheat remains the base crop for essentially all cropping systems. Decisions...

Dryland pasture and crop conditions as seen by HCMM. [Washita River watershed, Oklahoma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenthal, W. D.; Harlan, J. C.; Blanchard, B. J. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

Ground truth, aircraft, and satellite data were examined in order to: (1) assess the capability for determining wheat and pasture canopy temperatures in a dryland farming region from HCMM data; (2) assess the capability for determining soil moisture from HCMM data in dryland crops (winter wheat) from adjacent range lands; and (3) determine the relationship of HCMM-derived soil moisture and canopy temperature values with the condition of winter wheat and dryland farming areas during the principal growth stages. The IR data were screened to include areas having greater than 60% pasture and surface temperatures were recalculated using the atmospheric correction factor calculated by the modified RADTRA model, and the July 29, 1978 IR data were analyzed. Screening the IR data improved the relationship for July 24/July 13 and October 7/August 31 temperature/API relationship. However the coefficient of determination was not improved in the July 29/July 13 relationship.

Modeling the impacts of dryland agricultural reclamation on groundwater resources in Northern Egypt using sparse data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzman, Harris; Coulibaly, Paulin; Adeel, Zafar

2015-01-01

Demand for freshwater in many dryland environments is exerting negative impacts on the quality and availability of groundwater resources, particularly in areas where demand is high due to irrigation or industrial water requirements to support dryland agricultural reclamation. Often however, information available to diagnose the drivers of groundwater degradation and assess management options through modeling is sparse, particularly in low and middle-income countries. This study presents an approach for generating transient groundwater model inputs to assess the long-term impacts of dryland agricultural land reclamation on groundwater resources in a highly data-sparse context. The approach was applied to the area of Wadi El Natrun in Northern Egypt, where dryland reclamation and the associated water use has been aggressive since the 1960s. Statistical distributions of water use information were constructed from a variety of sparse field and literature estimates and then combined with remote sensing data in spatio-temporal infilling model to produce the groundwater model inputs of well-pumping and surface recharge. An ensemble of groundwater model inputs were generated and used in a 3D groundwater flow (MODFLOW) of Wadi El Natrun's multi-layer aquifer system to analyze trends in water levels and water budgets over time. Validation of results against monitoring records, and model performance statistics demonstrated that despite the extremely sparse data, the approach used in this study was capable of simulating the cumulative impacts of agricultural land reclamation reasonably well. The uncertainty associated with the groundwater model itself was greater than that associated with the ensemble of well-pumping and surface recharge estimates. Water budget analysis of the groundwater model output revealed that groundwater recharge has not changed significantly over time, while pumping has. As a result of these trends, groundwater was estimated to be in a deficit of approximately 24 billion m3 (±15%) in 2011, compared to 1957. A significant trend in water level declines beginning in the 1990s that has been observed in monitoring records was evident in the model results and is directly attributed to abstraction.

Low soil moisture during hot periods drives apparent negative temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in a dryland ecosystem: A multi-model comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tucker, Colin; Reed, Sasha C.

2016-01-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems (drylands) may dominate the trajectory of biosphere-to-atmosphere carbon (C) flux over the coming century. Accordingly, understanding dryland CO2 efflux controls is important for understanding C cycling at the global-scale: key unknowns regarding how temperature and moisture interact to regulate dryland C cycling remain. Further, the patchiness of dryland vegetation can create ‘islands of fertility’, with spatially heterogeneous rates of soil respiration (Rs). At our study site in southeastern Utah, USA we added or removed litter (0 to 650% of control) in paired plots that were either associated with a shrub or with interspaces between vascular plants. We measured Rs, soil temperature, and water content (θ) on eight sampling dates between October 2013 and November 2014. Rs was highest following monsoon rains in late summer when soil temperature was ~30°C. During mid-summer, Rs was low, associated with high soil temperatures (>40°C), resulting in an apparent negative temperature sensitivity of Rs at high temperatures, and positive temperature sensitivity at low-moderate temperatures. We used Bayesian statistical methods to compare multiple competing models capturing a wide range of hypothesized relationships between temperature, moisture, and Rs. The best fit model indicates apparent negative temperature sensitivity of soil respiration at high temperatures reflects the control of soil moisture – not high temperatures – in limiting Rs. The modeled Q10 ranged from 2.7 at 5°C to 1.4 at 45°C. Litter addition had no effect on temperature sensitivity or reference respiration (Rref = Rs at 20°C and optimum moisture) beneath shrubs, and little effect on Rref in interspaces, yet Rref was 1.5 times higher beneath shrubs than in interspaces. Together, these results suggest reduced Rs often observed at high temperatures in drylands is dominated by the control of moisture, and that variable litter inputs – at least over the short-term – exert minimal control over Rs.

Modeling Responses of Dryland Spring Triticale, Proso Millet and Foxtail Millet to Initial Soil Water in the High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dryland farming strategies in the High Plains must make efficient use of limited and variable precipitation and stored water in the soil profile for stable and sustainable farm productivity. Current research efforts focus on replacing summer fallow in the region with more profitable and environmenta...

Landscape genetic approaches to guide native plant restoration in the Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

2016-01-01

Restoring dryland ecosystems is a global challenge due to synergistic drivers of disturbance coupled with unpredictable environmental conditions. Dryland plant species have evolved complex life-history strategies to cope with fluctuating resources and climatic extremes. Although rarely quantified, local adaptation is likely widespread among these species and potentially influences restoration outcomes. The common practice of reintroducing propagules to restore dryland ecosystems, often across large spatial scales, compels evaluation of adaptive divergence within these species. Such evaluations are critical to understanding the consequences of large-scale manipulation of gene flow and to predicting success of restoration efforts. However, genetic information for species of interest can be difficult and expensive to obtain through traditional common garden experiments. Recent advances in landscape genetics offer marker-based approaches for identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species, but tools are still needed to link these approaches with practical aspects of ecological restoration. Here, we combine spatially-explicit landscape genetics models with flexible visualization tools to demonstrate how cost-effective evaluations of adaptive genetic divergence can facilitate implementation of different seed sourcing strategies in ecological restoration. We apply these methods to Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) markers genotyped in two Mojave Desert shrub species of high restoration importance: the long-lived, wind-pollinated gymnosperm Ephedra nevadensis, and the short-lived, insect-pollinated angiosperm Sphaeralcea ambigua. Mean annual temperature was identified as an important driver of adaptive genetic divergence for both species. Ephedra showed stronger adaptive divergence with respect to precipitation variability, while temperature variability and precipitation averages explained a larger fraction of adaptive divergence in Sphaeralcea. We describe multivariate statistical approaches for interpolating spatial patterns of adaptive divergence while accounting for potential bias due to neutral genetic structure. Through a spatial bootstrapping procedure, we also visualize patterns in the magnitude of model uncertainty. Finally, we introduce an interactive, distance-based mapping approach that explicitly links marker-based models of adaptive divergence with local or admixture seed sourcing strategies, promoting effective native plant restoration.

The extent of forest in dryland biomes.

PubMed

Bastin, Jean-François; Berrahmouni, Nora; Grainger, Alan; Maniatis, Danae; Mollicone, Danilo; Moore, Rebecca; Patriarca, Chiara; Picard, Nicolas; Sparrow, Ben; Abraham, Elena Maria; Aloui, Kamel; Atesoglu, Ayhan; Attore, Fabio; Bassüllü, Çağlar; Bey, Adia; Garzuglia, Monica; García-Montero, Luis G; Groot, Nikée; Guerin, Greg; Laestadius, Lars; Lowe, Andrew J; Mamane, Bako; Marchi, Giulio; Patterson, Paul; Rezende, Marcelo; Ricci, Stefano; Salcedo, Ignacio; Diaz, Alfonso Sanchez-Paus; Stolle, Fred; Surappaeva, Venera; Castro, Rene

2017-05-12

Dryland biomes cover two-fifths of Earth's land surface, but their forest area is poorly known. Here, we report an estimate of global forest extent in dryland biomes, based on analyzing more than 210,000 0.5-hectare sample plots through a photo-interpretation approach using large databases of satellite imagery at (i) very high spatial resolution and (ii) very high temporal resolution, which are available through the Google Earth platform. We show that in 2015, 1327 million hectares of drylands had more than 10% tree-cover, and 1079 million hectares comprised forest. Our estimate is 40 to 47% higher than previous estimates, corresponding to 467 million hectares of forest that have never been reported before. This increases current estimates of global forest cover by at least 9%. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Application of genetic algorithm to land use optimization for non-point source pollution control based on CLUE-S and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qingrui; Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia

2018-05-01

The genetic algorithm (GA) was combined with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model to obtain an optimized land use pattern for controlling non-point source (NPS) pollution. The performance of the combination was evaluated. The effect of the optimized land use pattern on the NPS pollution control was estimated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and an assistant map was drawn to support the land use plan for the future. The Xiangxi River watershed was selected as the study area. Two scenarios were used to simulate the land use change. Under the historical trend scenario (Markov chain prediction), the forest area decreased by 2035.06 ha, and was mainly converted into paddy and dryland area. In contrast, under the optimized scenario (genetic algorithm (GA) prediction), up to 3370 ha of dryland area was converted into forest area. Spatially, the conversion of paddy and dryland into forest occurred mainly in the northwest and southeast of the watershed, where the slope land occupied a large proportion. The organic and inorganic phosphorus loads decreased by 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively, in the optimized scenario compared to those in the historical trend scenario. GA showed a better performance in optimized land use prediction. A comparison of the land use patterns in 2010 under the real situation and in 2020 under the optimized situation showed that Shennongjia and Shuiyuesi should convert 1201.76 ha and 1115.33 ha of dryland into forest areas, respectively, which represented the greatest changes in all regions in the watershed. The results of this study indicated that GA and the CLUE-S model can be used to optimize the land use patterns in the future and that SWAT can be used to evaluate the effect of land use optimization on non-point source pollution control. These methods may provide support for land use plan of an area.

A systems approach to restoring degraded drylands

Treesearch

Jeremy J. James; Roger L. Sheley; Todd Erickson; Kimberly S. Rollins; Michael H. Taylor; Kingsley W. Dixon

2013-01-01

Drylands support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystem goods and services across the globe. Drylands, however, are one of the most susceptible biomes to degradation. International programmes widely recognize dryland restoration as key to combating global dryland degradation and ensuring future global sustainability. While the need to...

Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Munson, Seth M.; Tietjen, Britta; Hall, Sonia A.; Wilson, Scott D.; Duniway, Michael C.; Jia, Gensuo; Pyke, David A.; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar

2017-01-01

Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.

Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils

PubMed Central

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Munson, Seth M.; Tietjen, Britta; Hall, Sonia A.; Wilson, Scott D.; Duniway, Michael C.; Jia, Gensuo; Pyke, David A.; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar

2017-01-01

Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas. PMID:28139649

ESD as a Means to Strengthen the Sustainable Management of Marginal Drylands in Egypt

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salem, Boshra B.

2012-01-01

The objective of this article is to present results of and lessons learnt from implementing education for sustainable development (ESD) in marginal drylands, based on experiences from the TEMPUS IV project, Education for Sustainable Development beyond the Campus (EDUCAMP), in Egypt and the multinational project, Sustainable Development of Marginal…

Production of greenhouse-grown biocrust mosses and associated cyanobacteria to rehabilitate dryland soil function

USGS Publications Warehouse

Antoninka, Anita; Bowker, Matthew A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Doherty, Kyle

2016-01-01

Mosses are an often-overlooked component of dryland ecosystems, yet they are common members of biological soil crust communities (biocrusts) and provide key ecosystem services, including soil stabilization, water retention, carbon fixation, and housing of N2 fixing cyanobacteria. Mosses are able to survive long dry periods, respond rapidly to precipitation, and reproduce vegetatively. With these qualities, dryland mosses have the potential to be an excellent dryland restoration material. Unfortunately, dryland mosses are often slow growing in nature, and ex situ cultivation methods are needed to enhance their utility. Our goal was to determine how to rapidly produce, vegetatively, Syntrichia caninervis and S. ruralis, common and abundant moss species in drylands of North America and elsewhere, in a greenhouse. We manipulated the length of hydration on a weekly schedule (5, 4, 3, or 2 days continuous hydration per week), crossed with fertilization (once at the beginning, monthly, biweekly, or not at all). Moss biomass increased sixfold for both species in 4 months, an increase that would require years under dryland field conditions. Both moss species preferred short hydration and monthly fertilizer. Remarkably, we also unintentionally cultured a variety of other important biocrust organisms, including cyanobacteria and lichens. In only 6 months, we produced functionally mature biocrusts, as evidenced by high productivity and ecosystem-relevant levels of N2 fixation. Our results suggest that biocrust mosses might be the ideal candidate for biocrust cultivation for restoration purposes. With optimization, these methods are the first step in developing a moss-based biocrust rehabilitation technology.

Palaeoclimate Records in Dryland Dunes: Progress and Remaining Challenges Utilizing the Unsaturated Zone for Palaeomoisture Reconstruction.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, A.

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of past rainfall in dryland regions underpin our understanding the links between climatic forcing and palaeohydrological response. However, there are only few proxies in drylands that record palaeorainfall, or palaeomoisture, in a straightforward manner. The unsaturated zone (USZ) has very significant potential as a novel dryland palaeomoisture archive. The approach is simple, based on variations in the concentration of pore-moisture tracers with depth, representing a hydrostratigraphical record through time. The tracer input is meteoric, with the concentration of this tracer established in the near-surface zone as a function of the level of evapotranspiration before that pore-moisture is transmitted vertically down to the water table. This presentation will highlight key regions where hydrostratigraphies have been successfully applied in drylands. It will also set out challenges regarding the assumptions of the approach, with the intention to stimulate discussion regarding the future development of the unsaturated zone as a palaeoclimate archive over a range of timescales and resolutions. Depending on the rate of moisture flux and the depth of the unsaturated zone, dryland hydrostratigraphies may record (i) broad climatic shifts since the last interglacial at low temporal resolution or multi-millennial length palaeomoisture records with a decadal temporal resolution. USZ hydrostratigraphies may also contain a record of changes in the amount of infiltration (and groundwater recharge) caused by changes to land-use.

An eco-hydrological approach to predicting regional vegetation and groundwater response to ecological water convergence in dryland riparian ecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To improve the management strategy of riparian restoration, better understanding of the dynamic of eco-hydrological system and its feedback between hydrological and ecological components are needed. The fully distributed eco-hydrological model coupled with a hydrology component was developed based o...

Evaluating GPFARM Crop Growth, Soil Water, and Soil Nitrogen Components for Colorado Dryland Locations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

GPFARM is a farm/ranch decision support system (DSS) designed to assist in strategic management planning for land units from the field to the whole-farm level. This study evaluated the regional applicability and efficacy of GPFARM based on simulation model performance for dry mass grain yield, tota...

Relationship among soil surface properties, hydrology and nitrogen cycling along a climatological gradient in drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaady, E.; Segoli, M.; Eldridge, D. J.; Groffman, P. M.; Boeken, B.; Shachak, M.

2009-04-01

Primary production and nutrient cycling in dryland systems are limited by water supply. There are two groups of primary producers, high biomass production plants and low biomass producing organisms found in biological soil crusts (BSC's), which control energy flow, nutrient cycling and hydrology. Biological or biogenic soil crusts are common in the world's drylands, from dry sub-humid to hyper-arid systems. The crusts are formed by communities of microphytes, mainly cyanobacteria, green algae, mosses, and lichens. The extracellular polysaccharide materials produced by the crust organisms attach soil particles, creating a solid horizontal layer of crust. Biological soil crusts modify soil quality by (1) aggregating soil particles, thereby reducing wind and water erosion; (2) reducing water infiltration, causing overland water run-off; and (3) N fixation and C sequestration. Dryland landscapes are two phase mosaic composed of BSC and high production patches. Development or loss of BSC may trigger changes in the spatial distribution of the patch types and therefore transitions between functional and degraded ecosystem states. We present a conceptual model depicting the function of each patch type and the link between them. Taking into account the contrast between low and high vegetation cover of dryland systems and their role in controlling soil nitrogen and water flows. The model describes the functioning of dryland systems with low biomass producing crust organisms cover, low rainfall, low top soil water and production, which cause low infiltration rate, low N uptake, nitrate accumulation, high evaporation and runoff. This leads to leaching of nitrates, oxygen depletion with high anaerobic conditions, high denitrification rates and N loss, resulting in low plant cover and soil organic matter i.e., degraded soil. It also depicts the functioning of the high production plants under low rainfall regimes resulting in low rates of N and energy flows. The model shows that when the two patches are combined into a source-sink system there is a synergetic effect increasing productivity and diversity, and N cycling and hydrology. The strength of the synergism depends on the climatological gradient. Correspondence to: Eli Zaady (Email: zaadye@volcani.agri.gov.il).

Progress towards the use of publicly available data networks to conduct cross-scale historical reconstructions of carbon dynamics in US Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Landolt, K.; Emanuel, R. E.; Therrell, M. D.; Nagle, N.; Grissino-Mayer, H. D.; Poulter, B.

2016-12-01

Emergent scale properties of water-limited or Dryland ecosystem's carbon flux are unknown at spatial scales from local to global and time scales of 10 - 1000 years or greater. The width of a tree ring is a metric of production that has been correlated with the amount of precipitation. This relationship has been used to reconstruct rainfall and fire histories in the Drylands of the southwestern US. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is globally measured by selected satellite sensors and is highly correlated with the fraction of solar radiation which is absorbed for photosynthesis by plants (FPAR), as well as with vegetation biomass, net primary productivity (NPP), and tree ring width. Publicly available web-based archives of free NDVI and tree ring data exist and have allowed historical temporal reconstructions of carbon dynamics for the past 300 to 500 years. Climate and tree ring databases have been used to spatially reconstruct drought dynamics for the last 500 years in the western US. In 2007, we hypothesized that NDVI and tree ring width could be used to spatially reconstruct carbon dynamics in US Drylands. In 2015, we succeeded with a 300-year historical spatial reconstruction of NPP in California using a Blue Oak tree ring chronology. Online eddy covariance flux tower measures of NPP are well correlated with satellite measures of NPP. This suggests that net ecosystem exchange (NEE = NPP - soil Respiration) could be historically reconstructed across Drylands. Ongoing research includes 1) scaling historical spatial reconstruction to US Drylands, 2) comparing the use of single versus multiple tree ring species (r2 = 68) and 3) use of the eddy flux tower network, remote sensing, and tree ring data to historically spatially reconstruct Dryland NEE.

CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America.

PubMed

Biederman, Joel A; Scott, Russell L; Bell, Tom W; Bowling, David R; Dore, Sabina; Garatuza-Payan, Jaime; Kolb, Thomas E; Krishnan, Praveena; Krofcheck, Dan J; Litvak, Marcy E; Maurer, Gregory E; Meyers, Tilden P; Oechel, Walter C; Papuga, Shirley A; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E; Rodriguez, Julio C; Smith, William K; Vargas, Rodrigo; Watts, Christopher J; Yepez, Enrico A; Goulden, Michael L

2017-10-01

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO 2 sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO 2 exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water-limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100-1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2-25°C, and records of 3-10 years (150 site-years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site-specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from -350 to +330 gCm -2 across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest-dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and R eco were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross-site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS-based models captured only 20-30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO 2 exchange may be up to 3-5 times larger than current estimates. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Dryland ecohydrology and climate change: critical issues and technical advances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; D'Odorico, P.; Evans, J. P.; Eldridge, D.; McCabe, M. F.; Caylor, K. K.; King, E. G.

2012-04-01

Drylands cover about 40% of the terrestrial land surface and account for approximately 40% of global net primary productivity. Water is fundamental to the biophysical processes that sustain ecosystem function and food production, particularly in drylands, where a tight coupling exists between water resource availability and ecosystem productivity, surface energy balance, and biogeochemical cycles. Currently, drylands support at least 2 billion people and comprise both natural and managed ecosystems. In this synthesis, we identify some current critical issues in the understanding of dryland systems and discuss how arid and semiarid environments are responding to the changes in climate and land use. Specifically, we focus on dryland agriculture and food security, dryland population growth, desertification, shrub encroachment and dryland development issues as factors of change requiring increased understanding and management. We also review recent technical advances in the quantitative assessment of human versus climate change related drivers of desertification, evapotranspiration partitioning using field deployable stable water isotope systems and the remote sensing of key ecohydrological processes. These technological advances provide new tools that assist in addressing major critical issues in dryland ecohydrology under climate change

Contributions of radiative factors to enhanced dryland warming over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yanting; Guan, Xiaodan; Yu, Haipeng; Xie, Yongkun; Jin, Hongchun

2017-08-01

Enhanced near-surface atmospheric warming has occurred over East Asia in recent decades, especially in drylands. Although local factors have been confirmed to provide considerable contributions to this warming, such factors have not been sufficiently analyzed. In this study, we extracted the radiatively forced temperature (RFT) associated with the built-up greenhouse gases, aerosol emission, and various other radiative forcing over East Asia and found a close relationship between RFT and CO2. In addition, using climate model experiments, we explored the responses of temperature changes to black carbon (BC), CO2, and SO4 and found that the enhanced dryland warming induced by CO2 had the largest magnitude and was strengthened by the warming effect of BC. Moreover, the sensitivity of daily maximum and minimum temperature changes to BC, CO2, and SO4 was examined. It showed asymmetric responses of daily maximum and minimum temperature to radiative factors, which led to an obvious change of diurnal temperature range (DTR), especially in drylands. The DTR's response to CO2 is the most significant. Therefore, CO2 not only plays a dominant role in enhanced warming but also greatly affects the decrease of DTR in drylands. However, the mechanisms of these radiative factors' effects in the process of DTR change are not clear and require more investigation.

Quantifying vegetation distribution and structure using high resolution drone-based structure-from-motion photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Okin, G.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is one of the most important driving factors of different ecosystem processes in drylands. The structure of vegetation controls the spatial distribution of moisture and heat in the canopy and the surrounding area. Also, the structure of vegetation influences both airflow and boundary layer resistance above the land surface. Multispectral satellite remote sensing has been widely used to monitor vegetation coverage and its change; however, it can only capture 2D images, which do not contain the vertical information of vegetation. In situ observation uses different methods to measure the structure of vegetation, and their results are accurate; however, these methods are laborious and time-consuming, and susceptible to undersampling in spatial heterogeneity. Drylands are sparsely covered by short plants, which allows the drone fly at a relatively low height to obtain ultra-high resolution images. Structure-from-motion (SfM) is a photogrammetric method that was proved to produce 3D model based on 2D images. Drone-based remote sensing can obtain the multiangle images for one object, which can be used to constructed 3D models of vegetation in drylands. Using these images detected by the drone, the orthomosaics and digital surface model (DSM) can be built. In this study, the drone-based remote sensing was conducted in Jornada Basin, New Mexico, in the spring of 2016 and 2017, and three derived vegetation parameters (i.e., canopy size, bare soil gap size, and plant height) were compared with those obtained with field measurement. The correlation coefficient of canopy size, bare soil gap size, and plant height between drone images and field data are 0.91, 0.96, and 0.84, respectively. The two-year averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) of canopy size, bare soil gap size, and plant height between drone images and field data are 0.61 m, 1.21 m, and 0.25 cm, respectively. The two-year averaged measure error (ME) of canopy size, bare soil gap size, and plant height between drone images and field data are 0.02 m, -0.03, and -0.1 m, respectively. These results indicate a good agreement between drone-based remote sensing and field measurement.

CQESTR simulated response of soil organic carbon to management, yield, and climate change in northern Great Plains region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Traditional dryland crop management includes fallow and intensive tillage, which have reduced soil organic carbon (SOC) over the past century raising concerns regarding soil health and sustainability. The objectives of this study were to: 1) use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC dynam...

Dryland feedbacks to climatic change: Results from a climate manipulation experiment on the Colorado Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, S.; Belnap, J.; Ferrenberg, S.; Wertin, T. M.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.

2015-12-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth's terrestrial surface and make up ~35% of the U.S., yet we know surprisingly little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many dryland regions, the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern U.S. is predicted to experience climate change as elevated temperature and altered timing and amount of annual precipitation. We are using a long-term (>10 yr) factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to explore how predicted changes in climate will affect vascular plant and biological soil crust community composition, biogeochemical cycling, and energy balance (biocrusts are a surface soil community of moss, lichen, and cyanobacteria that can make up as much as 70% of the living cover in drylands). While some of the responses we have observed were expected, many of the results are surprising. For example, we documented biocrust community composition shifts in response to altered climate that were significantly faster and more dramatic than considered likely for these soil communities that typically change over decadal and centennial timescales. Further, while we continue to observe important climate change effects on carbon cycling - including reduced net photosynthesis in vascular plants, increased CO2 losses from biocrust soils during some seasons, and changes to the interactions between water and carbon cycles - we have also found marked treatment effects on the albedo and spectral signatures of dryland soils. In addition to demonstrating the effects of these treatments, the strong relationships we observed in our experiments between biota and climate provide a quantitative framework for improving our representation of dryland responses to climate change. In this talk we will cover a range of datasets that, taken together, show: (1) large climate-driven changes to dryland biogeochemical cycling may be the result of both effects on existing communities, as well of relatively rapid shifts in community composition; (2) drylands could provide feedbacks to future climate not only though altered carbon cycling but also via changes to surface albedo; and (3) models of dryland responses to climate change may need significant revision, but such a revision is well within reach.

Chlorophyll Fluorescence Better Captures Seasonal and Interannual Gross Primary Productivity Dynamics Across Dryland Ecosystems of Southwestern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. K.; Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Moore, D. J. P.; He, M.; Kimball, J. S.; Yan, D.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M. L.; MacBean, N.; Fox, A. M.; Litvak, M. E.

2018-01-01

Satellite remote sensing provides unmatched spatiotemporal information on vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP). Yet understanding of the relationship between GPP and remote sensing observations and how it changes with factors such as scale, biophysical constraint, and vegetation type remains limited. This knowledge gap is especially apparent for dryland ecosystems, which have characteristic high spatiotemporal variability and are under-represented by long-term field measurements. Here we utilize an eddy covariance (EC) data synthesis for southwestern North America in an assessment of how accurately satellite-derived vegetation proxies capture seasonal to interannual GPP dynamics across dryland gradients. We evaluate the enhanced vegetation index, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), and the photochemical reflectivity index. We find evidence that SIF is more accurately capturing seasonal GPP dynamics particularly for evergreen-dominated EC sites and more accurately estimating the full magnitude of interannual GPP dynamics for all dryland EC sites. These results suggest that incorporation of SIF could significantly improve satellite-based GPP estimates.

Using Remote Sensing, Geomorphology, and Soils to Map Episodic Streams in Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibodeaux-Yost, S. N. S.

2016-12-01

Millions of acres of public land in the California deserts are currently being evaluated and permitted for the construction of large-scale renewable energy projects. The absence of a standard method for identifying episodic streams in arid and semi-arid (dryland) regions is a source of conflict between project developers and the government agencies responsible for conserving natural resources and permitting renewable energy projects. There is a need for a consistent, efficient, and cost-effective dryland stream delineation protocol that accurately reflects the extent and distribution of active watercourses. This thesis evaluates the stream delineation method and results used by the developer for the proposed Ridgecrest Solar Power Project on the El Paso Fan, Ridgecrest, Kern County, California. This evaluation is then compared and contrasted with results achieved using remote sensing, geomorphology, soils, and GIS analysis to identify stream presence on the site. This study's results identified 105 acres of watercourse, a value 10 times greater than that originally identified by the project developer. In addition, the applied methods provide an ecohydrologic base map to better inform project siting and potential project impact mitigation opportunities. This study concludes that remote sensing, geomorphology, and dryland soils can be used to accurately and efficiently identify episodic stream activity and the extent of watercourses in dryland environments.

Climate Change and Dryland Wheat Systems in the US Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockle, C.; Karimi, T.; Huggins, D. R.; Nelson, R.

2015-12-01

A regional assessment of historical and future yields, and components of the water, nitrogen, and carbon soil balance of dryland wheat-based cropping systems in the US Pacific Northwest is being conducted (Regional Approaches to Climate Change project funded by USDA-NIFA). All these elements intertwines and are important to understand the future of these systems in the region. A computer simulation methodology was used based on the CropSyst model and historic and projected daily weather data downscaled to a 4x4 km grid including 14 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways of future atmospheric CO2 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study region was divided in 3 agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on precipitation amount: low (<300 mm/year), intermediate (300-460 mm/year) and high (>460 mm/year), with a change from crop-fallow, to transition fallow (crop-crop-fallow) to annual cropping, respectively. Typical wheat-based rotations included winter wheat (WW)-Summer fallow (SF) for the low AEZ, WW-spring wheat (SW)-SF for the intermediate AEZ, and WW-SW-spring peas for the high AEZ, all under conventional and no tillage management. Alternative systems incorporating canola were also evaluated. Results suggest that, in most cases, these dryland systems may fare well in the future (31-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2070), with potential gains in productivity. Also, a trend towards increased fallow in the intermediate AEZ appears possible for higher productivity, and the inclusion of less water demanding crops may help sustain cropping intensity. Uncertainties in these projections arise from large discrepancies among climate models regarding the warming rate, compounded by different possible future CO2 emission scenarios, the degree of change in frequency and severity of extreme events and associated potential damages to crop canopies due to cold weather and grain set reduction due to extreme heat events. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of climate change on pests, diseases and weeds that could affect crop production and management costs. Finally, there is also uncertainty on the speed of technological innovation allowing producers to adapt to changing conditions.

Plant species richness and ecosystem multifunctionality in global drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maestre, Fernando T.; Quero, Jose L.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Escudero, Adrian; Ochoa, Victoria; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Garcia-Gomez, Miguel; Bowker, Matthew A.; Soliveres, Santiago; Escolar, Cristina; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Berdugo, Miguel; Valencia, Enrique; Gozalo, Beatriz; Gallardo, Antonio; Aguilera, Lorgio; Arredondo, Tulio; Blones, Julio; Boeken, Bertrand; Bran, Donaldo; Conceicao, Abel A.; Cabrera, Omar; Chaieb, Mohamed; Derak, Mchich; Eldridge, David J.; Espinosa, Carlos I.; Florentino, Adriana; Gaitan, Juan; Gatica, M. Gabriel; Ghiloufi, Wahida; Gomez-Gonzalez, Susana; Gutie, Julio R.; Hernandez, Rosa M.; Huang, Xuewen; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Jankju, Mohammad; Miriti, Maria; Monerris, Jorge; Mau, Rebecca L.; Morici, Ernesto; Naseri, Kamal; Ospina, Abelardo; Polo, Vicente; Prina, Anibal; Pucheta, Eduardo; Ramirez-Collantes, David A.; Romao, Roberto; Tighe, Matthew; Torres-Diaz, Cristian; Val, James; Veiga, Jose P.; Wang, Deli; Zaady, Eli

2012-01-01

Experiments suggest that biodiversity enhances the ability of ecosystems to maintain multiple functions, such as carbon storage, productivity, and the buildup of nutrient pools (multifunctionality). However, the relationship between biodiversity and multifunctionality has never been assessed globally in natural ecosystems. We report here on a global empirical study relating plant species richness and abiotic factors to multifunctionality in drylands, which collectively cover 41% of Earth's land surface and support over 38% of the human population. Multifunctionality was positively and significantly related to species richness. The best-fitting models accounted for over 55% of the variation in multifunctionality and always included species richness as a predictor variable. Our results suggest that the preservation of plant biodiversity is crucial to buffer negative effects of climate change and desertification in drylands.

Plant species richness and ecosystem multifunctionality in global drylands

PubMed Central

Maestre, Fernando T.; Quero, José L.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Escudero, Adriá; Ochoa, Victoria; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; García-Gómez, Miguel; Bowker, Matthew A.; Soliveres, Santiago; Escolar, Cristina; García-Palacios, Pablo; Berdugo, Miguel; Valencia, Enrique; Gozalo, Beatriz; Gallardo, Antonio; Aguilera, Lorgio; Arredondo, Tulio; Blones, Julio; Boeken, Bertrand; Bran, Donaldo; Conceição, Abel A.; Cabrera, Omar; Chaieb, Mohamed; Derak, Mchich; Eldridge, David J.; Espinosa, Carlos I.; Florentino, Adriana; Gaitán, Juan; Gatica, M. Gabriel; Ghiloufi, Wahida; Gómez-González, Susana; Gutiérrez, Julio R.; Hernández, Rosa M.; Huang, Xuewen; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Jankju, Mohammad; Miriti, Maria; Monerris, Jorge; Mau, Rebecca L.; Morici, Ernesto; Naseri, Kamal; Ospina, Abelardo; Polo, Vicente; Prina, Aníbal; Pucheta, Eduardo; Ramírez-Collantes, David A.; Romão, Roberto; Tighe, Matthew; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Val, James; Veiga, José P.; Wang, Deli; Zaady, Eli

2013-01-01

Experiments suggest that biodiversity enhances the ability of ecosystems to maintain multiple functions, such as carbon storage, productivity, and buildup of nutrient pools (multifunctionality). However, the relationship between biodiversity and multifunctionality has never been assessed globally in natural ecosystems. We report on the first global empirical study relating plant species richness and abiotic factors to multifunctionality in drylands, which collectively cover 41% of Earth’s land surface and support over 38% of the human population. Multifunctionality was positively and significantly related to species richness. The best-fitting models accounted for over 55% of the variation in multifunctionality, and always included species richness as a predictor variable. Our results suggest that preservation of plant biodiversity is crucial to buffer negative effects of climate change and desertification in drylands. PMID:22246775

Remote Sensing of Vegetation Recovery from Disturbance in Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poitras, T. B.; Villarreal, M. L.; Waller, E.; Duniway, M.; Nauman, T.

2016-12-01

Characteristics of dryland ecosystems such as climatic extremes and water limitations render semi-arid regions vulnerable to disturbance and slow to recover. Land surface monitoring over time through the use of remote sensing may have potential for identifying dryland ecosystem recovery after anthropogenic and natural disturbance. However, semi-arid vegetation cover is challenging to measure using remote sensing techniques due to low vegetation cover and confusion between bright and variable soils and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV). We therefore evaluated the ability of various multispectral indices to distinguish bare ground from total vegetation cover, in order to determine those that can detect changes over time in heavily disturbed sites. We calculated nine spectral indices from Landsat TM using Google Earth Engine (March through October, 2006 through 2008) and tested relationships between index values and ground measurements from long-term monitoring data collected in and around Canyonlands National Park in Utah. We also tested multivariate models, with some showing improvement under cross-validation. We found that indices that included shortwave infrared bands and soil brightness were important for capturing gradients in bare ground, and vegetation cover was best quantified with near-infrared bands. These results will be used to help assess the landscape-scale impacts of oil and gas development in dryland ecosystems and to measure response to restoration efforts. Keywords: remote sensing, landsat, drylands

Can nitrogen fertilization aid restoration of mature tree productivity in degraded dryland riverine ecosystems?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, Douglas C.; Adair, Elizabeth Carol; Nelson, Sigfrid Mark; Binkley, Dan

2014-01-01

Restoration of riparian forest productivity lost as a consequence of flow regulation is a common management goal in dryland riverine ecosystems. In the northern hemisphere, dryland river floodplain trees often include one or another species of Populus, which are fast-growing, nutrient-demanding trees. Because the trees are phreatophytic in drylands, and have water needs met in whole or in part by a shallow water table, their productivity may be limited by nitrogen (N) availability, which commonly limits primary productivity in mesic environments. We added 20 g N m−2 in a 2-m radius around the base of mature Populus fremontii along each of a regulated and free-flowing river in semiarid northwest Colorado, USA (total n = 42) in order to test whether growth is constrained by low soil N. Twelve years after fertilization, we collected increment cores from these and matched unfertilized trees and compared radial growth ratios (growth in the 3-year post-fertilization period/growth in the 3-year pre-fertilization period) in paired t tests. We expected a higher mean ratio in the fertilized trees. No effect from fertilization was detected, nor was a trend evident on either river. An alternative test using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) produced a similar result. Our results underscore the need for additional assessment of which and to what extent factors other than water control dryland riverine productivity. Positive confirmation of adequate soil nutrients at these and other dryland riparian sites would bolster the argument that flow management is necessary and sufficient to maximize productivity and enhance resilience in affected desert riverine forests.

Evaluating soil erodibility dynamics to improve estimates of wind erosion in drylands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wind erosion is a key driver of land degradation in the world’s drylands. Soil loss and nutrient decline due to wind erosion increase the sensitivity of drylands to climate stressors. Better understanding the factors controlling wind erosion in drylands will provide a basis for identifying and testi...

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

2017-06-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

Sediment transport by runoff on debris-mantled dryland hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaelides, Katerina; Martin, Gareth J.

2012-09-01

Hillslopes supply sediment to river channels, and therefore impact drainage basin functioning and evolution. The relationship between hillslope attributes and sediment flux forms the basis of geomorphic transport laws used to model the long-term topographic evolution of drainage basins, but their specific interactions during individual storm events are not well understood. Runoff-driven erosion of coarse particles, prevalent in dryland environments, presents a particular set of conditions for sediment transport that is poorly resolved in current models. In order to address this gap, we developed a particle-based, force-balance model for sheetwash sediment transport on coarse, debris-mantled hillslopes within a rainfall-runoff model. We use the model to examine how the interplay between hillslope attributes (gradient, length and grain size distribution) and runoff characteristics affects sediment transport, grain-size changes on the hillslope, and sediment supply to the slope base. The relationship between sediment flux and hillslope gradient was found to transition from linear above a threshold to sigmoidal depending on hillslope length, initial grain sizes, and runoff characteristics. Grain sizes supplied to the slope base vary in a complex manner with hillslope attributes but an overall coarsening of the hillslopes is found to occur with increasing gradient, corroborating previous findings from field measurements. Intense, short duration storms result in within-hillslope sediment redistribution and equifinality in sediment supply for different hillslope characteristics, which explain the lack of field evidence for any systematic relationships. Our model findings provide insights into hillslope responses to climatic forcing and have theoretical implications for modeling hillslope evolution in dry lands.

Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

How Is Topographic Simplicity Maintained in Ephemeral, Dryland Channels?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, M. B.; Michaelides, K.

2014-12-01

Topography in river channels reflects the time integral of streamflow-driven sediment flux mass balance. In dryland basins, infrequent and spatially heterogeneous rainfall generates a nonuniform sediment supply to ephemeral channels from hillslopes, and this sediment is subsequently sorted by spatially and temporally discontinuous channel flow. Paradoxically, the time integral of these interactions tends to produce simple topography, manifest in straight longitudinal profiles and symmetrical cross sections, which are distinct from bed morphology in perennial channels, but the controlling processes are unclear. We present a set of numerical modeling experiments based on field measurements and scenarios of uniform/nonuniform streamflow to investigate ephemeral channel bed-material flux and net sediment accumulation behavior in response to variations in channel hydrology, width, and grain size distribution. Coupled with variations in valley and channel width and frequent, yet discontinuous hillslope supply of coarse sediment, bed material becomes weakly sorted into coarse and fine sections that then affect rates of channel Qs. We identify three sediment transport thresholds relevant to poorly armored, dryland channels: 1) a low critical value required to entrain any grain sizes from the bed; 2) a value of ~4.5τ*c needed to move all grain sizes within a cross section with equal mobility; and 3) a value of ~50τ*c required to entrain gravel at nearly equivalent rates at all sections along a reach. The latter represents the 'geomorphically effective' event, which resets channel topography. We show that spatially variable flow below ~50τ*c creates and subsequently destroys incipient topography along ephemeral reaches and that large flood events above this threshold apparently dampen fluctuations in longitudinal sediment flux and thus smooth incipient channel bar forms. Both processes contribute to the maintenance of topographic simplicity in ephemeral dryland channels.

Natural ecosystem mimicry in traditional dryland agroecosystems: Insights from an empirical and holistic approach.

PubMed

Blanco, Julien; Michon, Geneviève; Carrière, Stéphanie M

2017-12-15

While the aim of Ecological Intensification is to enable the design of more sustainable and productive agricultural systems, it is not suited to dryland agroecosystems that are driven by non-equilibrium dynamics and intrinsic variability. Instead, a model based on mobility and variability management has been proposed for these agroecosystems. However, this model remains under-applied in southern Morocco where there have been few studies on the functioning of traditional agroecosystems. This paper focuses on an agroecosystem in the Moroccan Saharan fringe zone that combines agriculture and pastoralism in an acacia parkland. A grounded theory approach was used over a three-year investigation period (i) to highlight how agro-pastoral activities interface with environmental variability, and (ii) to analyze the formal and informal institutions that support these activities. Results show that farmers interface with rainfall variability through (i) an opportunistic agricultural calendar, (ii) a variation of cultivated areas, and (iii) crop diversification. Herders combine macro-mobility (nomads move over long distances to track rainfall) and micro-mobility (nomadic and sedentary herds are driven on a daily basis around settlements) to optimize the exploitation of ecological heterogeneity. During droughts, they also resort to State-subsidized forage supplies. Both cultivation and pastoral activities tend to interface with ecological dynamics and to mimic nature, resulting in a human-modified parkland that could be considered as a 'green agroecosystem'. The sustainability of natural resource use relies on flexible property rights, backed up by a social and cultural norm-based regulation system, that allow crop-livestock integration and landscape collective management. Despite encouraging results, the agroecosystem appears to be threatened by current agricultural policies, rural exodus and the lack of social recognition of nomadism. Nevertheless, because ecosystem mimicry of nature is often considered as a sound agricultural model for drylands, this case study could provide a basis for local development policies, and thus merits further attention from local managers and researchers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Evaluation of Data Fusion Products for the Analysis of Dryland Forest Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. J.; de Beurs, K.; Wynne, R. H.; Gao, F.

2010-12-01

Semi-arid forest areas cover a significant proportion of the world’s land surface; in the interior western U.S. alone, dryland forests extend across more than 56 million hectares. The scarcity of water in these systems makes them acutely sensitive to sustained weather fluctuations, such as the higher temperatures and altered water regimes predicted under most climate change scenarios. To understand, monitor, and predict the anticipated spatial and temporal changes in these areas, it is vital to characterize current phenological patterns. Phenological analysis of western U.S. drylands is complicated by patchy land cover and mosaics of plant phenology states at a variety of spatial scales. Our aim is to use complementary satellite sensors to mitigate these difficulties and gain greater insight into phenological patterns in dryland forests. In this study we applied the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance model (STARFM; Gao et al. 2006) to fuse Landsat and MODIS imagery to create synthetic images at Landsat spatial resolution and MODIS temporal resolution. To determine which MODIS dataset is most appropriate for the creation of synthetic images intended for the analysis of dryland forest phenology, we examined the effect of temporal compositing and BRDF function adjustment on the accuracy of STARFM imagery. We assembled seven Landsat 5 scenes (path/row 37/36) and temporally-coincident 500m MODIS datasets (seven daily (MOD09GA), seven 8-day composite (MOD09A1), and fourteen 16-day nadir BRDF-adjusted composite (MCD43A4) images) spanning the 2006 April - October growing season in northern Arizona, which is characterized by large tracts of dryland forest. The STARFM algorithm was applied to each MODIS data series to produce four synthetic images (one daily; one 8-day composite; and two 16-day composites) corresponding to each Landsat image. Validation of the accuracy of the synthetic images was achieved by comparing the reflectance values of a random sample of the identified dryland forest pixels in both images. Preliminary data analysis of the effect of the temporal resolution and dataset parameters indicates that the MODIS 8-day composite image may be a suitable and sufficient dataset for phenological analysis in this dryland forest ecosystem. Overall, this work demonstrates the feasibility of using data fusion products to assemble an imagery dataset at sufficiently high temporal and spatial scales to permit a more detailed examination of the underlying phenological processes and trends in dryland forest areas.

The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert.

PubMed

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K

2016-01-01

Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months' continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling results as well as sensitivity analyses provide soil moisture baseline information for future monitoring and the prediction of soil moisture patterns in the Namib Desert.

The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert

PubMed Central

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

2016-01-01

Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months’ continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling results as well as sensitivity analyses provide soil moisture baseline information for future monitoring and the prediction of soil moisture patterns in the Namib Desert. PMID:27764203

Signal and noise in vegetation patterns in drylands: distinguishing the baby from the bath water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Anthony; Wainwright, John; Stewart, Jill; Okin, Gregory

2014-05-01

Patterns, and particularly banded patterns, are widely reported in dryland vegetation, and have been the subject of considerable modelling effort. However, much of this modelling effort is predicated on a mathematical approach that is designed to produce patterns and relies on physical processes that are unreasonable. In consequence, whereas in nature dryland vegetation patterns are irregular, disjointed and discontinuous, those produced by such models tend to be regular, continuous and even. The question, therefore, arises "Is it the irregularity, disjointed and discontinuous character of these patterns that holds the key to their formation rather than any apparent, human-imposed semblance of regularity and continuity?" By focusing on this apparent patterning have such models rejected as noise the key to understanding the signal? Models that produce regular vegetation patterns, typically do so by imposing global rules (largely for the distribution of water). Is it not more likely that vegetation responds to the local supply of water, nutrients and propagules? Here, we present a model for the growth of vegetation in deserts that is predicated on the local conditions of input of water, nutrients and propagules and output, such as loss of biomass by herbivory. The approach represents our best quantitative understanding of how desert ecosystems work. Patterns emerge that show the irregularity and discontinuity seen in nature. By focusing on the process rather than the patterns per se our model has the ability to address specific questions of the role of such patterns in land degradation. Further, it has the potential to provide quantitative estimates of the response of the landscape to specific management strategies, as well as the identification of the key thresholds and tipping points that are so important to the management of drylands. In providing a way to understand and predict the vegetation patterns that may develop during desertification, the approach also represents a crucial potential tool for its management and even reversal.

Potential of remotely-sensed data for mapping sediment connectivity pathways and their seasonal changes in dryland environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, Saskia; Wilczok, Charlotte; Brosinsky, Arlena; Kroll, Anja; Segl, Karl; Francke, Till

2014-05-01

Many drylands are characterized by strong erosion in headwater catchments, where connectivity processes play an important role in the redistribution of water and sediments. Sediment connectivity relates to the physical transfer of sediment through a drainage basin (Bracken and Croke 2007). The identification of sediment source areas and the way they connect to the channel network are essential to environmental management (Reid et al. 2007), especially where high erosion and sediment delivery rates occur. Vegetation cover and its spatial and temporal pattern is one of the main factors affecting sediment connectivity. This is particularly true for patchy vegetation covers typical for dryland environments. While many connectivity studies are based on field-derived data, the potential of remotely-sensed data for sediment connectivity analyses has not yet been fully exploited. Recent advances in remote sensing allow for quantitative, spatially explicit, catchment-wide derivation of surface information to be used in connectivity analyses. These advances include a continuous increase in spatial image resolution to comprise processes at the plot to hillslope to catchment scale, an increase in the temporal resolution to cover seasonal and long-term changes and an increase in the spectral resolution enabling the discrimination of dry and green vegetation fractions from soil surfaces in heterogeneous dryland landscapes. The utilization of remotely-sensed data for connectivity studies raises questions on what type of information is required, how scale of sediment flux and image resolution match, how the connectivity information can be incorporated into water and sediment transport models and how this improves model predictions. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the potential of remotely-sensed data for mapping sediment connectivity pathways and their seasonal change at the example of a mesoscale dryland catchment in the Spanish Pyrenees. Here, sediment connectivity pathways have been mapped for two adjacent sub-catchments (approx. 70 km²) of the Isábena River in different seasons using a quantitative connectivity index based on fractional vegetation cover and topography data. Fractional cover of green and dry vegetation, bare soil and rock were derived by applying a Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis approach applied to a hyperspectral image dataset. Sediment connectivity was mapped using the Index of Connectivity (Borselli et al. 2008), in which the effect of land cover on runoff and sediment fluxes is expressed by a spatially distributed weighing factor (in this study, the cover and management factor of the RUSLE). The resulting connectivity maps show that areas behave very differently with regard to connectivity, depending on the land cover but also on the spatial distribution of vegetation abundances and topographic barriers. Most parts of the catchment show higher connectivity values in summer than in spring. The studied sub-catchments show a slightly different connectivity behaviour reflecting the different land cover proportions and their spatial configuration. Future work includes the incorporation of sediment connectivity information into a hydrological model (WASA-SED, Mueller et al. 2010) to better reflect connectivity processes and testing the sensitivity of the model to different input data.

Sediment Transport and Dust Flux in Disturbed and Undisturbed Dryland Ecosystems: From Site Specific Estimates to Trends Across Gradients of Woody Plant Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, J. P.; Breshears, D. D.; Whicker, J. J.; Zou, C. B.; Allen, C. D.

2007-12-01

Aeolian sediment transport and associated dust flux are important processes in dryland ecosystems where vegetation cover is inherently sparse relative to more mesic ecosystems. Aeolian processes in dryland ecosystems are strongly influenced by the spatial density of roughness elements, which is largely determined by woody plant height and spacing. Despite the global extent of dryland ecosystems, relatively few measurements of aeolian sediment transport have been made within these systems, and these few existing measurements have not been systematically evaluated with respect to gradients of woody plant cover. We report measured aeolian sediment transport in an undisturbed and disturbed semiarid grasslands in southern Arizona. To place our estimate in a broader context, we compared our site-specific findings to other recently published measurements of aeolian sediment transport in disturbed and undisturbed dryland ecosystems. We propose a new conceptual framework for dryland aeolian sediment transport and dust flux as a function of woody plant cover that integrates our site-specific data with the broader literature base. Our findings suggest that for relatively undisturbed ecosystems, shrublands have inherently greater aeolian sediment transport and associated dust flux than grasslands, woodlands and forests due to wake interference flow associated with the height and spacing of woody roughness elements. Furthermore, the proposed framework suggests that for disturbed ecosystems, the upper bound for aeolian sediment transport increases as a function of decreasing woody plant cover. As a result, aeolian sediment transport spans a relatively small range in woodlands and forests, an intermediate range in shrublands, and the largest range in grasslands. Our framework is applicable both within locations and across broad gradients

Nonrainfall water origins and formation mechanisms

PubMed Central

Kaseke, Kudzai Farai; Wang, Lixin; Seely, Mary K.

2017-01-01

Dryland ecosystems cover 40% of the total land surface on Earth and are defined broadly as zones where precipitation is considerably less than the potential evapotranspiration. Nonrainfall waters (for example, fog and dew) are the least-studied and least-characterized components of the hydrological cycle, although they supply critical amounts of water for dryland ecosystems. The sources of nonrainfall waters are largely unknown for most systems. In addition, most field and modeling studies tend to consider all nonrainfall inputs as a single category because of technical constraints, which hinders prediction of dryland responses to future warming conditions. This study uses multiple stable isotopes (2H, 18O, and 17O) to show that fog and dew have multiple origins and that groundwater in drylands can be recycled via evapotranspiration and redistributed to the upper soil profile as nonrainfall water. Surprisingly, the non–ocean-derived (locally generated) fog accounts for more than half of the total fog events, suggesting a potential shift from advection-dominated fog to radiation-dominated fog in the fog zone of the Namib Desert. This shift will have implications on the flora and fauna distribution in this fog-dependent system. We also demonstrate that fog and dew can be differentiated on the basis of the dominant fractionation (equilibrium and kinetic) processes during their formation using the 17O-18O relationship. Our results are of great significance in an era of global climate change where the importance of nonrainfall water increases because rainfall is predicted to decline in many dryland ecosystems. PMID:28345058

The use of UAVs for monitoring land degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Themistocleous, Kyriacos

2017-10-01

Land degradation is one of the causes of desertification of drylands in the Mediterranean. UAVs can be used to monitor and document the various variables that cause desertification in drylands, including overgrazing, aridity, vegetation loss, etc. This paper examines the use of UAVs and accompanying sensors to monitor overgrazing, vegetation stress and aridity in the study area. UAV images can be used to generate digital elevation models (DEMs) to examine the changes in microtopography as well as ortho-photos were used to detect changes in vegetation patterns. The combined data of the digital elevation models and the orthophotos can be used to identify the mechanisms for desertification in the study area.

Biological soil crusts accelerate the nitrogen cycle through large NO and HONO emissions in drylands.

PubMed

Weber, Bettina; Wu, Dianming; Tamm, Alexandra; Ruckteschler, Nina; Rodríguez-Caballero, Emilio; Steinkamp, Jörg; Meusel, Hannah; Elbert, Wolfgang; Behrendt, Thomas; Sörgel, Matthias; Cheng, Yafang; Crutzen, Paul J; Su, Hang; Pöschl, Ulrich

2015-12-15

Reactive nitrogen species have a strong influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate, tightly coupling the Earth's nitrogen cycle with microbial activity in the biosphere. Their sources, however, are not well constrained, especially in dryland regions accounting for a major fraction of the global land surface. Here, we show that biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are emitters of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrous acid (HONO). Largest fluxes are obtained by dark cyanobacteria-dominated biocrusts, being ∼20 times higher than those of neighboring uncrusted soils. Based on laboratory, field, and satellite measurement data, we obtain a best estimate of ∼1.7 Tg per year for the global emission of reactive nitrogen from biocrusts (1.1 Tg a(-1) of NO-N and 0.6 Tg a(-1) of HONO-N), corresponding to ∼20% of global nitrogen oxide emissions from soils under natural vegetation. On continental scales, emissions are highest in Africa and South America and lowest in Europe. Our results suggest that dryland emissions of reactive nitrogen are largely driven by biocrusts rather than the underlying soil. They help to explain enigmatic discrepancies between measurement and modeling approaches of global reactive nitrogen emissions. As the emissions of biocrusts strongly depend on precipitation events, climate change affecting the distribution and frequency of precipitation may have a strong impact on terrestrial emissions of reactive nitrogen and related climate feedback effects. Because biocrusts also account for a large fraction of global terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation, their impacts should be further quantified and included in regional and global models of air chemistry, biogeochemistry, and climate.

Can we infer plant facilitation from remote sensing? A test across global drylands

PubMed Central

Xu, Chi; Holmgren, Milena; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Soliveres, Santiago; Berdugo, Miguel; Kéfi, Sonia; Marquet, Pablo A.; Abades, Sebastian; Scheffer, Marten

2016-01-01

Facilitation is a major force shaping the structure and diversity of plant communities in terrestrial ecosystems. Detecting positive plant-plant interactions relies on the combination of field experimentation and the demonstration of spatial association between neighboring plants. This has often restricted the study of facilitation to particular sites, limiting the development of systematic assessments of facilitation over regional and global scales. Here we explore whether the frequency of plant spatial associations detected from high-resolution remotely-sensed images can be used to infer plant facilitation at the community level in drylands around the globe. We correlated the information from remotely-sensed images freely available through Google Earth™ with detailed field assessments, and used a simple individual-based model to generate patch-size distributions using different assumptions about the type and strength of plant-plant interactions. Most of the patterns found from the remotely-sensed images were more right-skewed than the patterns from the null model simulating a random distribution. This suggests that the plants in the studied drylands show stronger spatial clustering than expected by chance. We found that positive plant co-occurrence, as measured in the field, was significantly related to the skewness of vegetation patch-size distribution measured using Google Earth™ images. Our findings suggest that the relative frequency of facilitation may be inferred from spatial pattern signals measured from remotely-sensed images, since facilitation often determines positive co-occurrence among neighboring plants. They pave the road for a systematic global assessment of the role of facilitation in terrestrial ecosystems. PMID:26552256

Biological soil crusts accelerate the nitrogen cycle through large NO and HONO emissions in drylands

PubMed Central

Wu, Dianming; Tamm, Alexandra; Ruckteschler, Nina; Rodríguez-Caballero, Emilio; Meusel, Hannah; Elbert, Wolfgang; Behrendt, Thomas; Sörgel, Matthias; Cheng, Yafang; Crutzen, Paul J.; Su, Hang; Pöschl, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Reactive nitrogen species have a strong influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate, tightly coupling the Earth’s nitrogen cycle with microbial activity in the biosphere. Their sources, however, are not well constrained, especially in dryland regions accounting for a major fraction of the global land surface. Here, we show that biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are emitters of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrous acid (HONO). Largest fluxes are obtained by dark cyanobacteria-dominated biocrusts, being ∼20 times higher than those of neighboring uncrusted soils. Based on laboratory, field, and satellite measurement data, we obtain a best estimate of ∼1.7 Tg per year for the global emission of reactive nitrogen from biocrusts (1.1 Tg a−1 of NO-N and 0.6 Tg a−1 of HONO-N), corresponding to ∼20% of global nitrogen oxide emissions from soils under natural vegetation. On continental scales, emissions are highest in Africa and South America and lowest in Europe. Our results suggest that dryland emissions of reactive nitrogen are largely driven by biocrusts rather than the underlying soil. They help to explain enigmatic discrepancies between measurement and modeling approaches of global reactive nitrogen emissions. As the emissions of biocrusts strongly depend on precipitation events, climate change affecting the distribution and frequency of precipitation may have a strong impact on terrestrial emissions of reactive nitrogen and related climate feedback effects. Because biocrusts also account for a large fraction of global terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation, their impacts should be further quantified and included in regional and global models of air chemistry, biogeochemistry, and climate. PMID:26621714

Biological soil crusts: Diminutive communities of potential global importance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferrenberg, Scott; Tucker, Colin; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread, diverse communities of cyanobacteria, fungi, lichens, and mosses living on soil surfaces, primarily in drylands. Biocrusts can locally govern primary production, soil fertility, hydrology, and surface energy balance, with considerable variation in these functions across alternate community states. Further, these communities have been implicated in Earth system functioning via potential influences on global biogeochemistry and climate. Biocrusts are easily destroyed by disturbances and appear to be exceptionally vulnerable to warming temperatures and altered precipitation inputs, signaling possible losses of dryland functions with global change. Despite these concerns, we lack sufficient spatiotemporal data on biocrust function, cover, and community structure to confidently assess their ecological roles across the extensive dryland biome. Here, we present the case for cross-scale research and restoration efforts coupled with remote-sensing and modeling approaches that improve our collective understanding of biocrust responses to global change and the ecological roles of these diminutive communities at global scales.

Evaluation of eco-physiological indicators in Northeast Asia dryland regions based on MODIS products and ecological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, W.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem carbon-energy-water circles have significant effect on function and structure and vice verse. Based on these circles mechanism, some eco-physiological indicators, like Transpiration (T), gross primary productivity (GPP), light use efficiency (LUE) and water use efficiency (WUE), are commonly applied to assess terrestrial ecosystem function and structure dynamics. The ecosystem weakened function and simple structure in Northeast dryland regions resulted from land degradation or desertification, which could be demonstrated by above-mentioned indicators. In this study, based on MODIS atmosphere (MYD07, MYD04, MYD06 data) and land products (MYD13A2 NDVI, MYD11A1 LST, MYD15A2 LAI and land cover data), we first retrieved transpiration and LUE via Penman-Monteith Model and modified Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), respectively; and then evaluated dynamics of these eco-physiological indicators (Tair, VPD, T, LUE, GPP and WUE) and some hotspots were found for next land degradation assessment. The results showed: (1) LUE and WUE are lower in barren or sparsely vegetated area and grasslands than in forest and croplands. (2) Whereas, all indicators presented higher variability in grassland area, particularly in east Mongolia. (3) GPP and transpiration have larger variability than other indicators due to fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). These eco-physiological indicators are expected to continue to change under future climate change and to help to assess land degradation from ecosystem energy-water-carbon perspectives.

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Li, Y.; Fu, C.; Chen, F.; Fu, Q.; Dai, A.; Shinoda, M.; Ma, Z.; Guo, W.; Li, Z.; Zhang, L.; Liu, Y.; Yu, H.; He, Y.; Xie, Y.; Guan, X.; Ji, M.; Lin, L.; Wang, S.; Yan, H.; Wang, G.

2017-09-01

Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long-term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere-land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948-2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.

The Research on Dryland Crop Classification Based on the Fusion of SENTINEL-1A SAR and Optical Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, F.; Chen, T.; He, J.; Wen, Q.; Yu, F.; Gu, X.; Wang, Z.

2018-04-01

In recent years, the quick upgrading and improvement of SAR sensors provide beneficial complements for the traditional optical remote sensing in the aspects of theory, technology and data. In this paper, Sentinel-1A SAR data and GF-1 optical data were selected for image fusion, and more emphases were put on the dryland crop classification under a complex crop planting structure, regarding corn and cotton as the research objects. Considering the differences among various data fusion methods, the principal component analysis (PCA), Gram-Schmidt (GS), Brovey and wavelet transform (WT) methods were compared with each other, and the GS and Brovey methods were proved to be more applicable in the study area. Then, the classification was conducted based on the object-oriented technique process. And for the GS, Brovey fusion images and GF-1 optical image, the nearest neighbour algorithm was adopted to realize the supervised classification with the same training samples. Based on the sample plots in the study area, the accuracy assessment was conducted subsequently. The values of overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of fusion images were all higher than those of GF-1 optical image, and GS method performed better than Brovey method. In particular, the overall accuracy of GS fusion image was 79.8 %, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.644. Thus, the results showed that GS and Brovey fusion images were superior to optical images for dryland crop classification. This study suggests that the fusion of SAR and optical images is reliable for dryland crop classification under a complex crop planting structure.

Functional diversity enhances the resistance of ecosystem multifunctionality to aridity in Mediterranean drylands

PubMed Central

Valencia-Gómez, Enrique; Maestre, Fernando T.; Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Yoann; Quero, José Luis; Tamme, Riin; Börger, Luca; García-Gómez, Miguel; Gross, Nicolas

2015-01-01

SUMMARY We used a functional trait-based approach to assess the impacts of aridity and shrub encroachment on the functional structure of Mediterranean dryland communities (functional diversity and community-weighted mean trait values [CWM]), and to evaluate how these functional attributes ultimately affect multifunctionality (i.e., the provision of several ecosystem functions simultaneously). Shrub encroachment (the increase in the abundance/cover of shrubs) is a major land cover change that is taking place in grasslands worldwide. Studies conducted on drylands have reported positive or negative impacts of shrub encroachment depending on the functions and the traits of the sprouting or non-sprouting shrub species considered. Functional diversity and CWM were equally important as drivers of multifunctionality responses to both aridity and shrub encroachment. Size traits (e.g., vegetative height or lateral spread) and leaf traits (e.g., specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content) captured the effect of shrub encroachment on multifunctionality with a relative high accuracy (r2=0.63). Functional diversity also improved the resistance of multifunctionality along the aridity gradient studied. Maintaining and enhancing functional diversity in plant communities may help to buffer negative effects of ongoing global environmental change on dryland multifunctionality. PMID:25615801

Integrated observation and modelling of runoff and sediments across different compartments of semi-arid catchments and channel networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bronstert, Axel; Ramon, Batalla; Araújo José C., De; da Costa Alexandre, Cunha; Till, Francke; Andreas, Güntner; Jose, Lopez-Tarazon; George, Mamede; Müller Eva, N.

2010-05-01

About one-third of the global population currently lives in countries which experience conditions of water stress. Such regions, often located within dryland ecosystems, are exposed to the hazard that the available freshwater resources fail to meet the water demand in domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors. Water availability often relies on the retention of river runoff in artificial lakes and reservoirs. However, the water storage in reservoirs is often adversely affected by sedimentation as a result of soil erosion. Erosion of the land surface due to natural or anthropogenic reasons and deposition of the eroded material in reservoirs threatens the reliability of reservoirs as a source of water supply. To sustain future water supply, a quantification of the sediment export from large dryland catchments becomes indispensable. A comprehensive modelling framework for water and sediment transport at the meso-scale, with a particular focus on dryland regions, has been developed from a German, Catalonian and Brazilian team during the last decade. It includes novel components for erosion from erosion-prone hillslopes, sediment transfer, retention and re-mobilization through the river system and sediment distribution, trapping and transfer through a reservoir. The parameterisation for pilot catchments is based on field monitoring campaigns of water and sediment fluxes, the analysis of land-use patterns, and the identification of the sediment hot spots through remotely sensed data. We present results of erosion-prone landscape units, the role of sediment transport in the river system, and the sedimentation processes in reservoirs. The modelling studies demonstrate the wide range of environmental problems where the model may be employed to develop sustainable management strategies for land and water resources. Evaluation of scenarios (land use, climate change) combined with an integrated assessment of options in reservoir management opens the opportunity to address relevant questions of water management including problems of water yield, reservoir capacity and economical comparison of on-/ offsite sediment management.

Developing an Agro-Ecological Zoning Model for Tumbleweed (Salsola kali), as Energy Crop in Drylands of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, Silvia; Pitta-Alvarez, Sandra; Ulberich, Ana

2016-12-01

Salsola kali is considered extremely valuable as an energy crop worldwide because it adapts easily to environments with strong abiotic stresses (hydric, saline and alkaline) and produces large amounts of biomass in drylands. This species is categorized as an important weed in Argentina. The aim of this work was to design an agro-ecological zoning model for tumbleweed in Argentina, employing a Geography Information System. Based on the bioclimatic requirements for the species and the climatic data for Argentina (1981-2010 period), an agro-climatic suitability map was drawn. This map was superimposed on the saline and alkaline soil maps delineated by the Food and Agriculture Organization for dry climates, generating the agro-ecological zoning on a scale of 1 : 500 000. This zoning revealed very suitable and suitable cultivation areas on halomorphic soils. The potential growing areas extend from N of the Salta province (approximately 22° S) to the Santa Cruz province (50° S). The use of tumbleweed on halomorphic soils under semi-arid to arid conditions, for the dual purpose of forage use and source of lignocellulosic material for bioenergy, could improve agricultural productivity in these lands. Furthermore, it could also contribute to their environmental sustainability, since the species can be used to reclaim saline soils over the years. Based on international bibliography, the authors outlined an agro-ecological zoning model. This model may be applied to any part of the world, using the agro-ecological limits presented here.

Simulation of Long-term Yield and Soil Water Consumption in Apple Orchards on the Loess Plateau, China, in Response to Fertilization.

PubMed

Peng, Xingxing; Guo, Zheng; Zhang, Yujiao; Li, Jun

2017-07-14

The Loess Plateau, China, is the world's largest apple-producing region, and over 80% of the orchards are in rainfed (dryland) areas. Desiccation of the deep soil layer under dryland apple orchards is the main stressor of apple production in this region. Fertilization is a factor that causes soil desiccation in dryland apple orchards. Given its applicability and precision validations, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the dynamics of fruit yield and deep soil desiccation in apple orchards under six fertilization treatments. During the 45 years of study, the annual fruit yield under the fertilization treatments initially increased and then decreased in a fluctuating manner, and the average fruit yields were 24.42, 27.27, 28.69, 29.63, 30.49 and 29.43 t/ha in these respective fertilization treatments. As fertilization increased, yield of the apple orchards increased first and then declined,desiccation of the soil layers occurred earlier and extended deeper, and the average annual water consumption, over-consumption and water use efficiency increased as fertilization increased. In terms of apple yields, sustainable soil water use, and economic benefits, the most appropriate fertilization rate for drylands in Luochuan is 360-480 kg/ha N and 180-240 kg/ha P.

Future soil moisture and temperature extremes imply expanding suitability for rainfed agriculture in temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jia, Gensuo; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Munson, Seth M.; Wilson, Scott D.; Tietjen, Britta

2017-01-01

The distribution of rainfed agriculture is expected to respond to climate change and human population growth. However, conditions that support rainfed agriculture are driven by interactions among climate, including climate extremes, and soil moisture availability that have not been well defined. In the temperate regions that support much of the world’s agriculture, these interactions are complicated by seasonal temperature fluctuations that can decouple climate and soil moisture. Here, we show that suitability to support rainfed agriculture can be effectively represented by the interactive effects of just two variables: suitability increases where warm conditions occur with wet soil, and suitability decreases with extreme high temperatures. 21st century projections based on ecohydrological modeling of downscaled climate forecasts imply geographic shifts and overall increases in the area suitable for rainfed agriculture in temperate regions, especially at high latitudes, and pronounced, albeit less widespread, declines in suitable areas in low latitude drylands, especially in Europe. These results quantify the integrative direct and indirect impact of rising temperatures on rainfed agriculture.

Nested archetypes of vulnerability in African drylands: where lies potential for sustainable agricultural intensification?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sietz, D.; Ordoñez, J. C.; Kok, M. T. J.; Janssen, P.; Hilderink, H. B. M.; Tittonell, P.; Van Dijk, H.

2017-09-01

Food production is key to achieving food security in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa. Since agricultural productivity is limited, however, due to inherent agro-ecological constraints and land degradation, sustainable agricultural intensification has been widely discussed as an opportunity for improving food security and reducing vulnerability. Yet vulnerability determinants are distributed heterogeneously in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa and sustainable intensification cannot be achieved everywhere in cost-effective and efficient ways. To better understand the heterogeneity of farming systems’ vulnerability in order to support decision making at regional scales, we present archetypes, i.e. socio-ecological patterns, of farming systems’ vulnerability in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa and reveal their nestedness. We quantitatively indicated the most relevant farming systems’ properties at a sub-national resolution. These factors included water availability, agro-ecological potential, erosion sensitivity, population pressure, urbanisation, remoteness, governance, income and undernourishment. Cluster analysis revealed eight broad archetypes of vulnerability across all drylands of sub-Saharan Africa. The broad archetype representing better governance and highest remoteness in extremely dry and resource-constrained regions encompassed the largest area share (19%), mainly indicated in western Africa. Moreover, six nested archetypes were identified within those regions with better agropotential and prevalent agricultural livelihoods. Among these patterns, the nested archetype depicting regions with highest erosion sensitivity, severe undernourishment and lower agropotential represented the largest population (30%) and area (28%) share, mainly found in the Sahel region. The nested archetype indicating medium undernourishment, better governance and lowest erosion sensitivity showed particular potential for sustainable agricultural intensification, mainly in western and some parts of southeastern and eastern Africa. Insights into the nestedness of archetypes allowed a more differentiated discussion of vulnerability and sustainable intensification opportunities, enhancing the evaluation of key interlinkages between land management and food security. The archetypes may support the transfer of successful intensification strategies based on similarities among the drylands in sub-Saharan Africa.

Functional traits determine plant co-occurrence more than environment or evolutionary relatedness in global drylands.

PubMed

Soliveres, Santiago; Maestre, Fernando T; Bowker, Matthew A; Torices, Rubén; Quero, José L; García-Gómez, Miguel; Cabrera, Omar; Cea, Alex; Coaguila, Daniel; Eldridge, David J; Espinosa, Carlos I; Hemmings, Frank; Monerris, Jorge J; Tighe, Matthew; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Escolar, Cristina; García-Palacios, Pablo; Gozalo, Beatriz; Ochoa, Victoria; Blones, Julio; Derak, Mchich; Ghiloufi, Wahida; Gutiérrez, Julio R; Hernández, Rosa M; Noumi, Zouhaier

2014-08-20

Plant-plant interactions are driven by environmental conditions, evolutionary relationships (ER) and the functional traits of the plants involved. However, studies addressing the relative importance of these drivers are rare, but crucial to improve our predictions of the effects of plant-plant interactions on plant communities and of how they respond to differing environmental conditions. To analyze the relative importance of -and interrelationships among- these factors as drivers of plant-plant interactions, we analyzed perennial plant co-occurrence at 106 dryland plant communities established across rainfall gradients in nine countries. We used structural equation modeling to disentangle the relationships between environmental conditions (aridity and soil fertility), functional traits extracted from the literature, and ER, and to assess their relative importance as drivers of the 929 pairwise plant-plant co-occurrence levels measured. Functional traits, specifically facilitated plants' height and nurse growth form, were of primary importance, and modulated the effect of the environment and ER on plant-plant interactions. Environmental conditions and ER were important mainly for those interactions involving woody and graminoid nurses, respectively. The relative importance of different plant-plant interaction drivers (ER, functional traits, and the environment) varied depending on the region considered, illustrating the difficulty of predicting the outcome of plant-plant interactions at broader spatial scales. In our global-scale study on drylands, plant-plant interactions were more strongly related to functional traits of the species involved than to the environmental variables considered. Thus, moving to a trait-based facilitation/competition approach help to predict that: 1) positive plant-plant interactions are more likely to occur for taller facilitated species in drylands, and 2) plant-plant interactions within woody-dominated ecosystems might be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than those within grasslands. By providing insights on which species are likely to better perform beneath a given neighbour, our results will also help to succeed in restoration practices involving the use of nurse plants.

Functional traits determine plant co-occurrence more than environment or evolutionary relatedness in global drylands

PubMed Central

Soliveres, Santiago; Maestre, Fernando T.; Bowker, Matthew A.; Torices, Rubén; Quero, José L.; García-Gómez, Miguel; Cabrera, Omar; Cea, Alex; Coaguila, Daniel; Eldridge, David J.; Espinosa, Carlos I.; Hemmings, Frank; Monerris, Jorge J.; Tighe, Matthew; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Escolar, Cristina; García-Palacios, Pablo; Gozalo, Beatriz; Ochoa, Victoria; Blones, Julio; Derak, Mchich; Ghiloufi, Wahida; Gutiérrez, Julio R.; Hernández, Rosa M.; Noumi, Zouhaier

2015-01-01

Plant-plant interactions are driven by environmental conditions, evolutionary relationships (ER) and the functional traits of the plants involved. However, studies addressing the relative importance of these drivers are rare, but crucial to improve our predictions of the effects of plant-plant interactions on plant communities and of how they respond to differing environmental conditions. To analyze the relative importance of –and interrelationships among– these factors as drivers of plant-plant interactions, we analyzed perennial plant co-occurrence at 106 dryland plant communities established across rainfall gradients in nine countries. We used structural equation modeling to disentangle the relationships between environmental conditions (aridity and soil fertility), functional traits extracted from the literature, and ER, and to assess their relative importance as drivers of the 929 pairwise plant-plant co-occurrence levels measured. Functional traits, specifically facilitated plants’ height and nurse growth form, were of primary importance, and modulated the effect of the environment and ER on plant-plant interactions. Environmental conditions and ER were important mainly for those interactions involving woody and graminoid nurses, respectively. The relative importance of different plant-plant interaction drivers (ER, functional traits, and the environment) varied depending on the region considered, illustrating the difficulty of predicting the outcome of plant-plant interactions at broader spatial scales. In our global-scale study on drylands, plant-plant interactions were more strongly related to functional traits of the species involved than to the environmental variables considered. Thus, moving to a trait-based facilitation/competition approach help to predict that: 1) positive plant-plant interactions are more likely to occur for taller facilitated species in drylands, and 2) plant-plant interactions within woody-dominated ecosystems might be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than those within grasslands. By providing insights on which species are likely to better perform beneath a given neighbour, our results will also help to succeed in restoration practices involving the use of nurse plants. PMID:25914604

Dryland agriculture in North America

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Areas of North America with high density dryland farming include the Canadian Prairies, U.S. and Mexican Great Plains, and the Inland Pacific Northwest of the U.S., with wheat (Tritcum aestivum L.) being the dominant crop. Dryland farming is less dense but important in nearly every state in the west...

High precipitation and seeded species competition reduce seeded shrub establishment during dryland restoration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Drylands comprise 40% of Earth’s land mass and are critical to imperiled wildlife species, food security and carbon sequestration. Exotic weed invasions, overgrazing, energy extraction, and other factors have left many of the planet’s drylands in various states of degradation, and this has prompted...

Visualizing and quantifying microtopographic change of dryland landscapes from an unmanned aircraft system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: Soil and site stability are key attributes of assessing the health of dryland landscapes because these lands are susceptible to high rates of wind- and water-caused erosion. Field techniques for measuring and monitoring soil erosion in drylands are often labor intensive...

Soil coverage reduce photodegradation and promotes the development of soil-microbial films on dryland leaf litter

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Litter decomposition is a central focus of ecosystem science because of its importance to biogeochemical pools and cycling, but predicting dryland decomposition dynamics is problematic. Some studies indicate photodegradation by ultraviolet (UV) radiation can be a significant driver of dryland decomp...

Agronomic & entomological results from 7 years of dryland cropping systems research at Briggsdale, Colorado

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dryland crop production in the semi-arid Great Plains is limited by both the quantity and timing of precipitation. Sustainable dryland cropping systems maximize precipitation use efficiency by managing precipitation capture, storage, and use. Pest management approaches are also critical for efficie...

CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data fr...

Soil Fertility Evaluation and Land Management of Dryland Farming at Tegallalang Sub-District, Gianyar Regency, Bali, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardiana, I. K.; Susila, D.; Supadma, A. A.; Saifulloh, M.

2017-12-01

The landuse of Tegallalang Subdistrict is dominated by dryland farming. The practice of cultivation on agricultural dryland that ignores the carrying capacity of the environment can lead to land degradation that makes the land vulnerable to the deterioration of soil fertility. Soil fertility evaluation and land management of dryland farming in Tegallalang Sub-district, Gianyar Regency were aimed at (1) identifying the soil fertility and it’s respective limiting factors, (2) mapping the soil fertility using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and (3) developing land management for dryland farming in Tegallalang Sub-district. This research implementing explora-tory method which followed by laboratory analysis. Soil samples were taken on each homogene-ous land units which developed by overlay of slope, soil type, and land use maps. The following soil fertility were measured, such as CEC, base saturation, P2O5, K- Total and C-Organic. The values of soil fertility were mapping using QGIS 2.18.7 and refer to land management evaluation. The results showed that the soil fertility in the research area considered high, and low level. The High soil fertility presents on land units at the flat to undulating slope with different land management systems (fertilizer, without fertilizer, soil tillage and without soil tillage). The low soil fertility includes land units that present on steep slope, and without land managements. The limiting factors of soil fertility were texture, C-Organic, CEC, P2O5, and K- total. It was recommended to applying organic fertilizer, Phonska, and dolomite on the farming area.

Sustainable land management (SLM) practices in drylands: how do they address desertification threats?

PubMed

Schwilch, G; Liniger, H P; Hurni, H

2014-11-01

Managing land sustainably is a huge challenge, especially under harsh climatic conditions such as those found in drylands. The socio-economic situation can also pose challenges, as dryland regions are often characterized by remoteness, marginality, low-productive farming, weak institutions, and even conflict. With threats from climate change, disputes over water, competing claims on land, and migration increasing worldwide, the demands for sustainable land management (SLM) measures will only increase in the future. Within the EU-funded DESIRE project, researchers and stakeholders jointly identified existing SLM technologies and approaches in 17 dryland study sites located in the Mediterranean and around the world. In order to evaluate and share this valuable SLM experience, local researchers documented the SLM technologies and approaches in collaboration with land users, utilizing the internationally recognized WOCAT questionnaires. This article provides an analysis of 30 technologies and 8 approaches, enabling an initial evaluation of how SLM addresses prevalent dryland threats, such as water scarcity, soil degradation, vegetation degradation and low production, climate change, resource use conflicts, and migration. Among the impacts attributed to the documented technologies, those mentioned most were diversified and enhanced production and better management of water and soil degradation, whether through water harvesting, improving soil moisture, or reducing runoff. Favorable local-scale cost-benefit relationships were mainly found when considered over the long term. Nevertheless, SLM was found to improve people's livelihoods and prevent further outmigration. More field research is needed to reinforce expert assessments of SLM impacts and provide the necessary evidence-based rationale for investing in SLM.

Looking after the Land: The Navajo Dryland Environments Laboratory Researches the Environmental Needs of the Navajo Nation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Semken, Steven C.

1992-01-01

Describes the formation and operations of the Navajo Dryland Environments Laboratory (NDEL). NDEL, established by the Waste-Management Education and Research Consortium of New Mexico on the campus of Navajo Community College, focuses on environmental geology, hydrology, and resource management of the Colorado Plateau drylands. (DMM)

Long-term Tillage and Cropping Sequence Effect on Dryland Crop Yields and Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improved management practices are needed to increase dryland crop yields and soil organic matter compared with conventional farming practices in the northern Great Plains. We evaluated the 21-yr effect of tillage and cropping sequence on dryland grain and biomass (stems + leaves) yields and N uptake...

How will wind and water erosion change in drylands in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okin, G. S.; Sala, O.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Drylands are characterized as much by high spatial and temporal variability as they are by low precipitation. Cover that is patchy at multiple scales allows connectivity for wind and water transport. Vegetation dynamics at interannual scales occurs in the context of community change (including woody encroachment) at decadal scales. Periods of drought alternate with relatively wet periods. Future predictions for the world's drylands are that many will become more arid, but near all will experience greater climate variability. This work explores how future variability will affect transport by wind and water, both of which are crucial elements of biotic-abiotic feedbacks that control community change in drylands. This work is based on long-term observations from the Jornada Long Term Ecological Research (LTER), but with lessons that are applicable elsewhere. We find strong relationships between vegetation community, precipitation and aeolian transport related to changes in connectivity. We further identify strong, scale-dependent relationships between precipitation and runoff. Thus, aeolian transport decreases with increasing annual precipitation and transport by water increases with annual precipitation, with the combined effect that increased variability in annual precipitation is likely to increase both water and wind transport. The consequence of this is that feedbacks associated with community change are likely to strengthen in the future.

Potential human impacts of overlapping land-use and climate in a sensitive dryland: a case study of the Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Copeland, Stella; Bradford, John B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Schuster, Rudy

2017-01-01

Climate and land-use interactions are likely to affect future environmental and socioeconomic conditions in drylands, which tend to be limited by water resources and prone to land degradation. We characterized the potential for interactions between land-use types and land-use and climate change in a model dryland system, the Colorado Plateau, a region with a history of climatic variability and land-use change. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in aridification, land-use, and recreation at the county and 10 km2 grid scales. Our results show that oil and gas development and recreation may interact due to increasing trends and overlapping areas of high intensity. Projections suggest that aridification will impact all vegetation classes, with some of the highest proportional change in the south-east. The results suggest that the rate of change and spatial pattern of land-use in the future may differ from past patterns in land-use scale and intensity.

Wavelength selection beyond turing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelnik, Yuval R.; Tzuk, Omer

2017-06-01

Spatial patterns arising spontaneously due to internal processes are ubiquitous in nature, varying from periodic patterns of dryland vegetation to complex structures of bacterial colonies. Many of these patterns can be explained in the context of a Turing instability, where patterns emerge due to two locally interacting components that diffuse with different speeds in the medium. Turing patterns are multistable, meaning that many different patterns with different wavelengths are possible for the same set of parameters. Nevertheless, in a given region typically only one such wavelength is dominant. In the Turing instability region, random initial conditions will mostly lead to a wavelength that is similar to that of the leading eigenvector that arises from the linear stability analysis, but when venturing beyond, little is known about the pattern that will emerge. Using dryland vegetation as a case study, we use different models of drylands ecosystems to study the wavelength pattern that is selected in various scenarios beyond the Turing instability region, focusing on the phenomena of localized states and repeated local disturbances.

The Role of Different Plant Soil-Water Feedbacks in Models of Dryland Vegetation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silber, M.; Bonetti, S.; Gandhi, P.; Gowda, K.; Iams, S.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Understanding the processes underlying the formation of regular vegetation patterns in arid and semi-arid regions is important to assessing desertification risk under increasing anthropogenic pressure. Various modeling frameworks have been proposed, which are all capable of generating similar patterns through self-organizing mechanisms that stem from assumptions about plant feedbacks on surface/subsurface water transport. We critically discuss a hierarchy of hydrology-vegetation models for the coupled dynamics of surface water, soil moisture, and vegetation biomass on a hillslope. We identify distinguishing features and trends for the periodic traveling wave solutions when there is an imposed idealized topography and make some comparisons to satellite images of large-scale banded vegetation patterns in drylands of Africa, Australia and North America. This work highlights the potential for constraining models by considerations of where the patterns may lie on a landscape, such as whether on a ridge or in a valley.

Estimation of livestock appropriation of net primary productivity in Texas Drylands

Treesearch

Robert Washington-Allen; Jody Fitzgerald; Stephanie Grounds; Faisar Jihadi; John Kretzschmar; Kathryn Ramirez; John Mitchell

2009-01-01

The ecological state of US Drylands is unknown. This research is developing procedures to determine the impact of the ecological footprint of grazing livestock on the productive capacity of US Drylands. A pilot geodatabase was developed for the state of Texas that includes 2002 data for county boundaries, net primary productivity (NPP) derived from the Moderate...

Quality of life and sleep quality are similarly improved after aquatic or dry-land aerobic training in patients with type 2 diabetes: A randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

S Delevatti, Rodrigo; Schuch, Felipe Barreto; Kanitz, Ana Carolina; Alberton, Cristine L; Marson, Elisa Corrêa; Lisboa, Salime Chedid; Pinho, Carolina Dertzbocher Feil; Bregagnol, Luciana Peruchena; Becker, Maríndia Teixeira; Kruel, Luiz Fernando M

2018-05-01

To compare the effects of two aerobic training models in water and on dry-land on quality of life, depressive symptoms and sleep quality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Randomized clinical trial. Thirty-five patients with type 2 diabetes were randomly assigned to aquatic aerobic training group (n=17) or dry-land aerobic training group (n=18). Exercise training length was of 12 weeks, performed in three weekly sessions (45min/session), with intensity progressing from 85% to 100% of heart rate of anaerobic threshold during interventions. All outcomes were evaluated at baseline and 12 weeks later. In per protocol analysis, physical and psychological domains of quality of life improved in both groups (p<0.05) without between-group differences. Overall quality of life and sleep quality improved in both groups (p<0.05), without between-group differences in per protocol and intention to treat analysis. No changes on depressive symptoms were observed in both groups at follow-up. Aerobic training in an aquatic environment provides similar effects to aerobic training in a dry-land environment on quality of life, depressive symptoms and sleep quality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Clinical trial reg. no. NCT01956357, clinicaltrials.gov. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petrie, M.D.; Bradford, John B.; Hubbard, R.M.; Lauenroth, W.K.; Andrews, Caitlin; Schlaepfer, D.R.

2017-01-01

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020–2059 relative to 1910–2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060–2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century.

PubMed

Petrie, M D; Bradford, J B; Hubbard, R M; Lauenroth, W K; Andrews, C M; Schlaepfer, D R

2017-06-01

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020-2059 relative to 1910-2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060-2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Complex climatic and CO2 controls on net primary productivity of temperate dryland ecosystems over central Asia during 1980-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chi; Ren, Wei

2017-09-01

Central Asia covers a large land area of 5 × 106 km2 and has unique temperate dryland ecosystems, with over 80% of the world's temperate deserts, which has been experiencing dramatic warming and drought in the recent decades. How the temperate dryland responds to complex climate change, however, is still far from clear. This study quantitatively investigates terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in responses to temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 during 1980-2014, by using the Arid Ecosystem Model, which can realistically predict ecosystems' responses to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 according to model evaluation against 28 field experiments/observations. The simulation results show that unlike other middle-/high-latitude regions, NPP in central Asia declined by 10% (0.12 × 1015 g C) since the 1980s in response to a warmer and drier climate. The dryland's response to warming was weak, while its cropland was sensitive to the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE). However, the CFE was inhibited by the long-term drought from 1998 to 2008 and the positive effect of warming on photosynthesis was largely offset by the enhanced water deficit. The complex interactive effects among climate drivers, unique responses from diverse ecosystem types, and intensive and heterogeneous climatic changes led to highly complex NPP changing patterns in central Asia, of which 69% was dominated by precipitation variation and 20% and 9% was dominated by CO2 and temperature, respectively. The Turgay Plateau in northern Kazakhstan and southern Xinjiang in China are hot spots of NPP degradation in response to climate change during the past three decades and in the future.

Experimental warming in a dryland community reduced plant photosynthesis and soil CO2 efflux although the relationship between the fluxes remained unchanged

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wertin, Timothy M.; Belnap, Jayne; Reed, Sasha C.

2016-01-01

1. Drylands represent our planet's largest terrestrial biome and, due to their extensive area, maintain large stocks of carbon (C). Accordingly, understanding how dryland C cycling will respond to climate change is imperative for accurately forecasting global C cycling and future climate. However, it remains difficult to predict how increased temperature will affect dryland C cycling, as substantial uncertainties surround the potential responses of the two main C fluxes: plant photosynthesis and soil CO2 efflux. In addition to a need for an improved understanding of climate effects on individual dryland C fluxes, there is also notable uncertainty regarding how climate change may influence the relationship between these fluxes.2. To address this important knowledge gap, we measured a growing season's in situphotosynthesis, plant biomass accumulation, and soil CO2 efflux of mature Achnatherum hymenoides (a common and ecologically important C3 bunchgrass growing throughout western North America) exposed to ambient or elevated temperature (+2°C above ambient, warmed via infrared lamps) for three years.3. The 2°C increase in temperature caused a significant reduction in photosynthesis, plant growth, and soil CO2 efflux. Of important note, photosynthesis and soil respiration appeared tightly coupled and the relationship between these fluxes was not altered by the elevated temperature treatment, suggesting C fixation's strong control of both above-ground and below-ground dryland C cycling. Leaf water use efficiency was substantially increased in the elevated temperature treatment compared to the control treatment.4. Taken together, our results suggest notable declines in photosynthesis with relatively subtle warming, reveal strong coupling between above- and below-ground C fluxes in this dryland, and highlight temperature's strong effect on fundamental components of dryland C and water cycles.

Navigating challenges and opportunities of land degradation and sustainable livelihood development in dryland social–ecological systems: a case study from Mexico

PubMed Central

Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Ribeiro Palacios, Mónica; Arredondo Moreno, José Tulio; Braasch, Marco; Martínez Peña, Ruth Magnolia; de Alba Verduzco, Javier García; Monzalvo Santos, Karina

2012-01-01

Drylands are one of the most diverse yet highly vulnerable social–ecological systems on Earth. Water scarcity has contributed to high levels of heterogeneity, variability and unpredictability, which together have shaped the long coadaptative process of coupling humans and nature. Land degradation and desertification in drylands are some of the largest and most far-reaching global environmental and social change problems, and thus are a daunting challenge for science and society. In this study, we merged the Drylands Development Paradigm, Holling's adaptive cycle metaphor and resilience theory to assess the challenges and opportunities for livelihood development in the Amapola dryland social–ecological system (DSES), a small isolated village in the semi-arid region of Mexico. After 450 years of local social–ecological evolution, external drivers (neoliberal policies, change in land reform legislation) have become the most dominant force in livelihood development, at the cost of loss of natural and cultural capital and an increasingly dysfunctional landscape. Local DSESs have become increasingly coupled to dynamic larger-scale drivers. Hence, cross-scale connectedness feeds back on and transforms local self-sustaining subsistence farming conditions, causing loss of livelihood resilience and diversification in a globally changing world. Effective efforts to combat desertification and improve livelihood security in DSESs need to consider their cyclical rhythms. Hence, we advocate novel dryland stewardship strategies, which foster adaptive capacity, and continuous evaluation and social learning at all levels. Finally, we call for an effective, flexible and viable policy framework that enhances local biotic and cultural diversity of drylands to transform global drylands into a resilient biome in the context of global environmental and social change. PMID:23045713

Performance of dryland and wetland plant species on extensive green roofs.

PubMed

MacIvor, J Scott; Ranalli, Melissa A; Lundholm, Jeremy T

2011-04-01

Green roofs are constructed ecosystems where plants perform valuable services, ameliorating the urban environment through roof temperature reductions and stormwater interception. Plant species differ in functional characteristics that alter ecosystem properties. Plant performance research on extensive green roofs has so far indicated that species adapted to dry conditions perform optimally. However, in moist, humid climates, species typical of wetter soils might have advantages over dryland species. In this study, survival, growth and the performance of thermal and stormwater capture functions of three pairs of dryland and wetland plant species were quantified using an extensive modular green roof system. Seedlings of all six species were germinated in a greenhouse and planted into green roof modules with 6 cm of growing medium. There were 34 treatments consisting of each species in monoculture and all combinations of wet- and dryland species in a randomized block design. Performance measures were survival, vegetation cover and roof surface temperature recorded for each module over two growing seasons, water loss (an estimate of evapotranspiration) in 2007, and albedo and water capture in 2008. Over two seasons, dryland plants performed better than wetland plants, and increasing the number of dryland species in mixtures tended to improve functioning, although there was no clear effect of species or habitat group diversity. All species had survival rates >75 % after the first winter; however, dryland species had much greater cover, an important indicator of green roof performance. Sibbaldiopsis tridentata was the top performing species in monoculture, and was included in the best treatments. Although dryland species outperformed wetland species, planting extensive green roofs with both groups decreased performance only slightly, while increasing diversity and possibly habitat value. This study provides further evidence that plant composition and diversity can influence green roof functions.

Navigating challenges and opportunities of land degradation and sustainable livelihood development in dryland social-ecological systems: a case study from Mexico.

PubMed

Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Palacios, Mónica Ribeiro; Moreno, José Tulio Arredondo; Braasch, Marco; Peña, Ruth Magnolia Martínez; Verduzco, Javier García de Alba; Santos, Karina Monzalvo

2012-11-19

Drylands are one of the most diverse yet highly vulnerable social-ecological systems on Earth. Water scarcity has contributed to high levels of heterogeneity, variability and unpredictability, which together have shaped the long coadaptative process of coupling humans and nature. Land degradation and desertification in drylands are some of the largest and most far-reaching global environmental and social change problems, and thus are a daunting challenge for science and society. In this study, we merged the Drylands Development Paradigm, Holling's adaptive cycle metaphor and resilience theory to assess the challenges and opportunities for livelihood development in the Amapola dryland social-ecological system (DSES), a small isolated village in the semi-arid region of Mexico. After 450 years of local social-ecological evolution, external drivers (neoliberal policies, change in land reform legislation) have become the most dominant force in livelihood development, at the cost of loss of natural and cultural capital and an increasingly dysfunctional landscape. Local DSESs have become increasingly coupled to dynamic larger-scale drivers. Hence, cross-scale connectedness feeds back on and transforms local self-sustaining subsistence farming conditions, causing loss of livelihood resilience and diversification in a globally changing world. Effective efforts to combat desertification and improve livelihood security in DSESs need to consider their cyclical rhythms. Hence, we advocate novel dryland stewardship strategies, which foster adaptive capacity, and continuous evaluation and social learning at all levels. Finally, we call for an effective, flexible and viable policy framework that enhances local biotic and cultural diversity of drylands to transform global drylands into a resilient biome in the context of global environmental and social change.

Performance of dryland and wetland plant species on extensive green roofs

PubMed Central

MacIvor, J. Scott; Ranalli, Melissa A.; Lundholm, Jeremy T.

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Green roofs are constructed ecosystems where plants perform valuable services, ameliorating the urban environment through roof temperature reductions and stormwater interception. Plant species differ in functional characteristics that alter ecosystem properties. Plant performance research on extensive green roofs has so far indicated that species adapted to dry conditions perform optimally. However, in moist, humid climates, species typical of wetter soils might have advantages over dryland species. In this study, survival, growth and the performance of thermal and stormwater capture functions of three pairs of dryland and wetland plant species were quantified using an extensive modular green roof system. Methods Seedlings of all six species were germinated in a greenhouse and planted into green roof modules with 6 cm of growing medium. There were 34 treatments consisting of each species in monoculture and all combinations of wet- and dryland species in a randomized block design. Performance measures were survival, vegetation cover and roof surface temperature recorded for each module over two growing seasons, water loss (an estimate of evapotranspiration) in 2007, and albedo and water capture in 2008. Key Results Over two seasons, dryland plants performed better than wetland plants, and increasing the number of dryland species in mixtures tended to improve functioning, although there was no clear effect of species or habitat group diversity. All species had survival rates >75 % after the first winter; however, dryland species had much greater cover, an important indicator of green roof performance. Sibbaldiopsis tridentata was the top performing species in monoculture, and was included in the best treatments. Conclusions Although dryland species outperformed wetland species, planting extensive green roofs with both groups decreased performance only slightly, while increasing diversity and possibly habitat value. This study provides further evidence that plant composition and diversity can influence green roof functions. PMID:21292676

Structure and functioning of dryland ecosystems in a changing world.

PubMed

Maestre, Fernando T; Eldridge, David J; Soliveres, Santiago; Kéfi, Sonia; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Bowker, Matthew A; García-Palacios, Pablo; Gaitán, Juan; Gallardo, Antonio; Lázaro, Roberto; Berdugo, Miguel

2016-11-01

Understanding how drylands respond to ongoing environmental change is extremely important for global sustainability. Here we review how biotic attributes, climate, grazing pressure, land cover change and nitrogen deposition affect the functioning of drylands at multiple spatial scales. Our synthesis highlights the importance of biotic attributes (e.g. species richness) in maintaining fundamental ecosystem processes such as primary productivity, illustrate how N deposition and grazing pressure are impacting ecosystem functioning in drylands worldwide, and highlight the importance of the traits of woody species as drivers of their expansion in former grasslands. We also emphasize the role of attributes such as species richness and abundance in controlling the responses of ecosystem functioning to climate change. This knowledge is essential to guide conservation and restoration efforts in drylands, as biotic attributes can be actively managed at the local scale to increase ecosystem resilience to global change.

Structure and functioning of dryland ecosystems in a changing world

PubMed Central

Maestre, Fernando T.; Eldridge, David J.; Soliveres, Santiago; Kéfi, Sonia; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Bowker, Matthew A.; García-Palacios, Pablo; Gaitán, Juan; Gallardo, Antonio; Lázaro, Roberto; Berdugo, Miguel

2017-01-01

Understanding how drylands respond to ongoing environmental change is extremely important for global sustainability. Here we review how biotic attributes, climate, grazing pressure, land cover change and nitrogen deposition affect the functioning of drylands at multiple spatial scales. Our synthesis highlights the importance of biotic attributes (e.g. species richness) in maintaining fundamental ecosystem processes such as primary productivity, illustrate how N deposition and grazing pressure are impacting ecosystem functioning in drylands worldwide, and highlight the importance of the traits of woody species as drivers of their expansion in former grasslands. We also emphasize the role of attributes such as species richness and abundance in controlling the responses of ecosystem functioning to climate change. This knowledge is essential to guide conservation and restoration efforts in drylands, as biotic attributes can be actively managed at the local scale to increase ecosystem resilience to global change. PMID:28239303

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

2012-01-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Greening Drylands with Seawater Easily and Naturally.

PubMed

Moustafa, Khaled

2017-03-01

The sun and sea are inexhaustible sources of energy and water that could be used to transform drylands into more viable ecosystems. A sustainable and cost-effective approach is proposed for greening drylands and restoring wildlife and biodiversity in deserts using seawater desert-houses (or movable seawater ponds) that could offer important environmental advantages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individualized dry-land intervention program for an élite Paralympic swimmer: a case report.

PubMed

Cavaggioni, Luca; Trecroci, Athos; Tosin, Massimiliano; Iaia, F Marcello; Alberti, Giampietro

2018-03-01

The aim of this retrospective case study is the longitudinal description of the physical and functional parameters of a top-level Paralympic swimmer class S9-SB8-SM9 during four swimming seasons of training, from the Paralympic games in London 2012 to the Paralympic games in Rio 2016. A 22-year-old male swimmer underwent a specific preventive dry-land training based on diaphragmatic breathing, postural alignment, and slow-velocity resistance training aimed to improve his muscle strength. He was tested by using the Functional Movement ScreenTM, photographic postural assessment and vertical jump. The swimmer improved his functional, postural and strength parameters indicating a better functional movement and muscular power. These results shows that a four-year specific dry-land intervention could be capable of enhancing the functional and physical requirements of a top-level Paralympic swimmer. This approach might be a suitable novel alternative for physical therapists and athletic trainers to integrate their training protocols for athletes with similar impairments.

Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change.

PubMed

Mayaud, Jerome R; Bailey, Richard M; Wiggs, Giles F S

2017-06-20

Drylands are home to over 2 billion people globally, many of whom use the land for agricultural and pastoral activities. These vulnerable livelihoods could be disrupted if desert dunefields become more active in response to climate and land use change. Despite increasing knowledge about the role that wind, moisture availability and vegetation cover play in shaping dryland landscapes, relatively little is known about how drylands might respond to climatic and population pressures over the 21 st century. Here we use a newly developed numerical model, which fully couples vegetation and sediment-transport dynamics, to simulate potential landscape evolution at three locations in the Kalahari Desert, under two future emissions scenarios: stabilising (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5). Our simulations suggest that whilst our study sites will experience some climatically-induced landscape change, the impacts of climate change alone on vegetation cover and sediment mobility may be relatively small. However, human activity could strongly exacerbate certain landscape trajectories. Fire frequency has a primary impact on vegetation cover, and, together with grazing pressure, plays a significant role in modulating shrub encroachment and ensuing land degradation processes. Appropriate land management strategies must be implemented across the Kalahari Desert to avoid severe environmental and socio-economic consequences over the coming decades.

A methodology to estimate the future extent of dryland salinity in the southwest of Western Australia.

PubMed

Caccetta, Peter; Dunne, Robert; George, Richard; McFarlane, Don

2010-01-01

In the southwestern agricultural region of Western Australia, the clearing of the original perennial vegetation for annual vegetation-based dryland agriculture has lead to rising saline groundwater levels. This has had effects such as reduced productivity of agricultural land, death of native vegetation, reduced stream water quality and infrastructure damage. These effects have been observed at many locations within the 18 million ha of cleared land. This has lead to efforts to quantify, in a spatially explicit way, the historical and likely future extent of the area affected, with the view to informing management decisions. This study was conducted to determine whether the likely future extent of the area affected by dryland salinity could be estimated by means of developing spatially explicit maps for use in management and planning. We derived catchment-related variables from digital elevation models and perennial vegetation presence/absence maps. We then used these variables to predict the salinity hazard extent by applying a combination of decision tree classification and morphological image processing algorithms. Sufficient objective data such as groundwater depth, its rate of rise, and its concentration of dissolved salts were generally not available, so we used regional expert opinion (derived from the limited existing studies on salinity hazard extent) as training and validation data. We obtained an 87% agreement in the salinity hazard extent estimated by this method compared with the validation data, and conclude that the maps are sufficient for planning. We estimate that the salinity hazard extent is 29.7% of the agricultural land.

Hydrological regime as key to the morpho-texture and activity of braided streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storz-Peretz, Y.; Laronne, J. B.

2012-04-01

Braided streams are a common fluvial pattern in different climates. However, studies of gravel braided streams have mainly been conducted in humid braided systems or in flume simulations thereof, leaving arid braided streams scarcely investigated. Dryland rivers have bare catchments, rapid flow recession and unarmoured channel beds which are responsible for very high bedload discharges, thereby increasing the likelihood for braiding. Our main objective is to characterize the morpho-texture of the main morphological elements - mid-channel bars, chutes and anabranches (braid-cells) in the dryland braided system and compare them to their humid counterparts. Selected areas of the dryland braided Wadis Ze'elim, Rahaf and Roded in the SE hyper-arid Israel were measured, as were La-Bleone river in the French pre-alps along with the Saisera and Cimoliana rivers in NE Italy representing humid braided systems. Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) of morphological units produced point clouds from which high resolution accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) were extracted. Active braid cells in humid environments were also surveyed by electronic theodolite. Roughness and upper tail Grain Size Distribution (GSD) quantiles were derived from the scanned point clouds or from Wolman sampling. Results indicate that dryland anabranches tend to be finer-grained and less armoured than the bars, contrary to the humid braided systems, where the main or larger anabranches are coarser-grained and more armoured than the bars. Chutes are commonly similar or coarser-grained than the bars they dissect, in accordance with their steeper gradients due to the considerable relief of the bar-anabranch. The morpho-texture displayed in the steep braided Saisera River, located in the Italian Dolomites having the highest annual precipitation, has similarity to that of the dryland braided channels. In drylands coarse gravel is deposited mainly as bars due to the high flux of bedload, whereas the rapid flow recession is responsible for deposition of finer sediment with minimal winnowing in the branch channels. Therefore, channels are finer-grained than the bars. This process is associated with the mid-channel deposition of central bars. However, the steeper chutes and coarser anabranches are associated with erosive braiding processes, such as chute cutoffs and multiple bar dissection, allowing winnowing to occur also during rapid recession. Hence coarser-grained anabranches in drylands are essentially chutes. Lengthy flow recession in humid braided channels allows winnowing of fines, thereby generating armored channels, the finer sedimentary particles often deposited downstream as unit bars. Therefore, channels are coarser-grained than the bars they surround. Even though the steep Saisera is in a humid region, its hydrological regime is ephemeral with rapid and short recessions, responsible for a morpho-texture similar to that of dryland braided streams. Hence, the hydrologic regimen is a key to understanding the morpho-textural character of braided channels and for the higher activity of the ephemeral unarmoured channels in sub-barful events compared to their humid counterparts.

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts.

PubMed

Rutherford, William A; Painter, Thomas H; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C

2017-03-10

Drylands represent the planet's largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness-changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-03-01

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody B.; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Vegetation Mapping in a Dryland Ecosystem Using Multi-temporal Sentinel-2 Imagery and Ensemble Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enterkine, J.; Spaete, L.; Glenn, N. F.; Gallagher, M.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing and mapping of dryland ecosystem vegetation is notably problematic due to the low canopy cover and fugacious growing seasons. Recent improvements in available satellite imagery and machine learning techniques have enabled enhanced approaches to mapping and monitoring vegetation across dryland ecosystems. The Sentinel-2 satellites (launched June 2015 and March 2017) of ESA's Copernicus Programme offer promising developments from existing multispectral satellite systems such as Landsat. Freely-available, Sentinel-2 imagery offers a five-day revisit frequency, thirteen spectral bands (in the visible, near infrared, and shortwave infrared), and high spatial resolution (from 10m to 60m). Three narrow spectral bands located between the visible and the near infrared are designed to observe changes in photosynthesis. The high temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution of this imagery makes it ideal for monitoring vegetation in dryland ecosystems. In this study, we calculated a large number of vegetation and spectral indices from Sentinel-2 imagery spanning a growing season. This data was leveraged with robust field data of canopy cover at precise geolocations. We then used a Random Forests ensemble learning model to identify the most predictive variables for each landcover class, which were then used to impute landcover over the study area. The resulting vegetation map product will be used by land managers, and the mapping approaches will serve as a basis for future remote sensing projects using Sentinel-2 imagery and machine learning.

Abiotic and biotic controls over biogeochemical cycles in drylands: Insights from climate change and nitrogen deposition experiments on the Colorado Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, S.; Ferrenberg, S.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.; Wertin, T. M.; McHugh, T. A.; Morrissey, E.; Kuske, C.; Mueller, R.; Belnap, J.

2016-12-01

As for all ecosystems, biogeochemical cycling in drylands represents numerous intricate connections between biotic and abiotic controls. However, patterns of many fundamental ecosystem processes that generally hold across global gradients fall apart at the arid and semiarid end of the spectrum, and data point to an exceptionally strong role for abiotic controls in explaining these patterns. Further, there are multiple dryland characteristics - such as extreme aridity and high UV radiation, as well as specialized biological communities - which can point to a conclusion that "drylands are different". Indeed, drylands are often characterized by their harsh environment, by the diverse classes of biota representing a range of traits aimed at surviving such harsh conditions, and, more recently, by the suggestion of dramatic biotic responses to seemingly subtle changes in abiotic factors. In this talk, we will explore a range of biotic and abiotic controls over fundamental biogeochemical cycling in drylands using data from a suite of manipulation experiments on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We will present results from field treatments that speak to the effects of increasing temperature, altered precipitation regimes, increased nitrogen availability via deposition, and the effects of altered litterfall inputs. Biogeochemical processes we explore will include plant photosynthesis, soil photosynthesis and respiration (with a focus on biological soil crusts), litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. In addition, we will assess how treatments alter dryland community composition, as well as the resultant feedbacks of community shifts to environmental change. Taken together we will use these diverse datasets to ask questions about what makes drylands different or, instead, if a holistic joining of biotic and abiotic perspectives suggests they are not so different after all. These data will not only lend insight into the partitioning of and balance between biotic and abiotic controls, but will also provide perspective on how a changing world may shift this balance.

75 years of dryland science: Trends and gaps in arid ecology literature.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Dickman, Chris R; Wardle, Glenda M

2017-01-01

Growth in the publication of scientific articles is occurring at an exponential rate, prompting a growing need to synthesise information in a timely manner to combat urgent environmental problems and guide future research. Here, we undertake a topic analysis of dryland literature over the last 75 years (8218 articles) to identify areas in arid ecology that are well studied and topics that are emerging. Four topics-wetlands, mammal ecology, litter decomposition and spatial modelling, were identified as 'hot topics' that showed higher than average growth in publications from 1940 to 2015. Five topics-remote sensing, climate, habitat and spatial, agriculture and soils-microbes, were identified as 'cold topics', with lower than average growth over the survey period, but higher than average numbers of publications. Topics in arid ecology clustered into seven broad groups on word-based similarity. These groups ranged from mammal ecology and population genetics, broad-scale management and ecosystem modelling, plant ecology, agriculture and ecophysiology, to populations and paleoclimate. These patterns may reflect trends in the field of ecology more broadly. We also identified two broad research gaps in arid ecology: population genetics, and habitat and spatial research. Collaborations between population genetics and ecologists and investigations of ecological processes across spatial scales would contribute profitably to the advancement of arid ecology and to ecology more broadly.

Introduction to a special section on ecohydrology of semiarid environments: Confronting mathematical models with ecosystem complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoray, Tal; Assouline, Shmuel; Katul, Gabriel

2015-11-01

Current literature provides large number of publications about ecohydrological processes and their effect on the biota in drylands. Given the limited laboratory and field experiments in such systems, many of these publications are based on mathematical models of varying complexity. The underlying implicit assumption is that the data set used to evaluate these models covers the parameter space of conditions that characterize drylands and that the models represent the actual processes with acceptable certainty. However, a question raised is to what extent these mathematical models are valid when confronted with observed ecosystem complexity? This Introduction reviews the 16 papers that comprise the Special Section on Eco-hydrology of Semiarid Environments: Confronting Mathematical Models with Ecosystem Complexity. The subjects studied in these papers include rainfall regime, infiltration and preferential flow, evaporation and evapotranspiration, annual net primary production, dispersal and invasion, and vegetation greening. The findings in the papers published in this Special Section show that innovative mathematical modeling approaches can represent actual field measurements. Hence, there are strong grounds for suggesting that mathematical models can contribute to greater understanding of ecosystem complexity through characterization of space-time dynamics of biomass and water storage as well as their multiscale interactions. However, the generality of the models and their low-dimensional representation of many processes may also be a "curse" that results in failures when particulars of an ecosystem are required. It is envisaged that the search for a unifying "general" model, while seductive, may remain elusive in the foreseeable future. It is for this reason that improving the merger between experiments and models of various degrees of complexity continues to shape the future research agenda.

Dissolved and Particulate Organic Carbon Transport, Loads and Relationships from Catchments in the Dryland Agricultural Region of the Inland Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boylan, R. D.; Brooks, E. S.

2012-12-01

It has long been understood that soil organic matter (SOM) plays important role in the chemistry of agricultural soils. Promoting both cation exchange capacity and water retention, SOM also has the ability to sequester atmospheric carbon adding to a soils organic carbon content. Increasing soil organic carbon in the dryland agricultural region of the Inland Pacific Northwest is not only good for soil health, but also has the potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing strategies that minimizing the loss of soil carbon thus promoting carbon sequestration require a fundamental understanding of the dominant hydrologic flow paths and runoff generating processes in this landscape. Global fluxes of organic carbon from catchments range from 0.4-73,979 kg C km-2 year-1 for particulate organic carbon and 1.2-56,946 kg C km-2 year-1 for dissolved organic carbon (Alvarez-Cobelas, 2010). This small component of the global carbon cycle has been relatively well studied but there have yet to be any studies that focus on the dryland agricultural region of the Inland Pacific Northwest. In this study event based samples were taken at 5 sites across the Palouse Basin varying in land use and management type as well as catchment size, ranging from 1km2 to 7000 km2. Data collection includes streamflow, suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic nitrogen (TN), and nitrate concentrations as well as soil organic carbon (SOC) from distributed source areas. It is predicted that management type and streamflow will be the main drivers for DOC and POC concentrations. Relationships generated and historic data will then be used in conjunction with the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) to simulate field scale variability in the soil moisture, temperature, surface saturation, and soil erosion. Model assessment will be based on both surface runoff and sediment load measured at the outlet of these field catchments and distributed measurements capturing spatial variability within the catchments. We demonstrate how the accurate representation of the field scale variability in hydrology is an essential first step in the development of full scale cropping models capable of evaluating precision-based mitigation strategies.

Drylands soil bacterial community is affected by land use change and different irrigation practices in the Mezquital Valley, Mexico.

PubMed

Lüneberg, Kathia; Schneider, Dominik; Siebe, Christina; Daniel, Rolf

2018-01-23

Dryland agriculture nourishes one third of global population, although crop irrigation is often mandatory. As freshwater sources are scarce, treated and untreated wastewater is increasingly used for irrigation. Here, we investigated how the transformation of semiarid shrubland into rainfed farming or irrigated agriculture with freshwater, dam-stored or untreated wastewater affects the total (DNA-based) and active (RNA-based) soil bacterial community composition, diversity, and functionality. To do this we collected soil samples during the dry and rainy seasons and isolated DNA and RNA. Soil moisture, sodium content and pH were the strongest drivers of the bacterial community composition. We found lineage-specific adaptations to drought and sodium content in specific land use systems. Predicted functionality profiles revealed gene abundances involved in nitrogen, carbon and phosphorous cycles differed among land use systems and season. Freshwater irrigated bacterial community is taxonomically and functionally susceptible to seasonal environmental changes, while wastewater irrigated ones are taxonomically susceptible but functionally resistant to them. Additionally, we identified potentially harmful human and phytopathogens. The analyses of 16 S rRNA genes, its transcripts and deduced functional profiles provided extensive understanding of the short-term and long-term responses of bacterial communities associated to land use, seasonality, and water quality used for irrigation in drylands.

Food for Thought: Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin in an Altered Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Kruger, C.; Brady, M.; Adam, J. C.

2013-12-01

Growth of global population and food consumption in the next several decades is expected to result in a food security challenge. Strategies to address this challenge, such as enhancing agricultural productivity and resiliency, need to be considered within the context of a full range of plausible consequences so as to identify investments that create win-win-win scenarios for the environment, economy, and society. Regional earth systems models can provide the necessary scale-appropriate framework to inform the decision making context for adaptation strategies, especially in the context of global change. In an altered future, changes to climate, technology and socioeconomics affect regional agriculture both directly and indirectly. These effects are not independent and an integrated process-based model may better capture unanticipated non-linear and non-monotonic responses and feedbacks over time . BioEarth is a research initiative designed to explore the coupling of multiple stand-alone earth systems models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision making at the regional scale at decadal time-steps. This project focuses on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) region and is a framework that integrates atmospheric, terrestrial, aquatic, and economic models. We apply component models of BioEarth to the Columbia River basin in the PNW to study the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on regional irrigated and dryland crop yields for a variety of annual and perennial crops. Results indicate that the net effect of climate change on crop yields is dependent on the crop type. There is a negative effect of temperature on yields for most crops. Dryland winter wheat is a notable exception. With warming, although the available growing season increases, faster thermal accumulation results in a shorter time to maturity. Precipitation changes in the region have a positive impact on dryland agriculture. Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization has a positive impact on crop yields for most crops. This positive impact is minimal for corn which is a C4 crop that is already CO2 efficient. The net response is an increase in yields for dryland agriculture and depends on the crop type for irrigated agriculture. Although, climate change results in increased water shortages and water rights curtailment in the region, this does not translate into an increased negative effect on yields. This could be attributed to higher water use efficiency under elevated CO2 levels as well crops getting through growth stages earlier in the season with wetter spring conditions. The non linear and non monotonic nature of the response of climate change on crop yields is discussed. In accounting for biophysical effects of climate change on crop yields, socio-economic effects cannot be ignored because biophysical effects are nested with the framework of human decision making. We also discuss our results in the context of socioeconomic factors . Current results assume no adaptation strategies and incorporating this is our next step.

Assessing commercial livestock appropriation of the productive capacity of US drylands: A remote sensing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Mitchell, J. E.; Oslen, H. E.

2008-12-01

The "State of Nation's Ecosystems" by the Heinz Institute and the recent "Millennium Ecosystem Assessment of Drylands" concluded that the amount of desertification and the extent to which human management actions contribute to this process is unknown at national to global spatial scales. This is primarily due to lack of studies at these large spatial scales and the temporal scales (> a 15-year time series of data) necessary to separate the effects of anthropogenic practices from climate change on Drylands. Consequently, this research seeks to develop procedures for determining 1) the area of Drylands within the United States where commercial grazing livestock occur or the livestock ecological footprint and 2) the impact of the footprint on the US's productive capacity. Our approach has been to develop a pilot geodatabase of year 2002 data that includes administrative boundaries, the Moderate Resolution Infrared Spectroradiometer's (MODIS) measures of gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP, respectively), US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service's (USDA-NASS) county-level data on cattle, sheep, and goat inventories, transportation and power consumption networks, dryland extent, and land cover/land use. Secondly, the ratio of 1-km2 gridded mean annual potential evapotranspiration (MAPET) to mean annual precipitation (MAP) data were used to define the 50-year mean dryland extent in accordance with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification's definition of Drylands, the aridity index (AI) ≤ 0.65. Urban features, including transportation, power consumption, and land use/land cover, were subtracted from this dryland map to further refine it. The NASS tabular data was then related to the counties boundary map thus producing a county-level livestock number map that was then intersected with the dryland extent map to yield the US livestock ecological footprint. Lastly, this footprint map was then converted to a footprint map of the annual forage requirement or estimated consumption (or impact) of grazing livestock and then subtracted from a GPP map to yield a livestock appropriation of net primary productivity map (LANPP). We expect that commercial livestock will spatially impact < 20% of NPP, the conservative global estimate of human appropriation of NPP (HANPP), as LANPP is embedded within this estimate from previous studies.

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

PubMed Central

Maestre, Fernando T.; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Quero, José L.

2012-01-01

Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being. PMID:23045705

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands.

PubMed

Maestre, Fernando T; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Quero, José L

2012-11-19

Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being.

Monitoring and Assessment of US Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Johnson, J. S.; van Riper, C.; Modala, N. R.; Barnes, M.; Brademan, C.; Bruton, R.; Delgado, A.; Kim, J.; March, R.; Saenz, N.; Srinivasan, S.; Reeves, M. C.

2012-12-01

Monitoring of drylands requires time scales of 15 years or more in order to replicate twice the major climatic phenomena such as El Niño that have both proximal and ultimate consequences in this ecosystems. Spatially, federal agencies such as the USFS must comply with laws that request they report the condition and trend of US drylands at the national spatial scale. The MODIS sensor on both TERRA and AQUA platforms has been collecting data operational data since 2000 that include value added products such as the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), leaf area index (LAI), Land Cover, Burn Area, and net primary productivity (NPP) that can provide multiple indicators of Dryland condition and trend for now 13-years. Consequently, this sensor meets the space and time criteria necessary to begin monitoring US drylands. Additionally, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service has been collecting data on the spatial distribution and numbers of livestock including sheep, goats, and cattle, since the 1890's and contemporary and reconstructed climatic records at national scales go back even further in time. Time series data on climatic and land management drivers provides a basis for assessment of the causes of possible land degradation. We provide here an assessment of US Dryland condition and trend in regards to multiple indicators including land cover change in patch dynamics, NPP, and land surface temperature. For instance we show that from 2000 to 2011 US Drylands exhibit a net carbon gain that is reflected in increased connectivity of US grasslands, but conversely a decrease in surface temperatures that are indicative of increased woody encroachment. We also show that both climate, particularly drought, and livestock grazing are drivers of these dynamics.

Priority regions for research on dryland cereals and legumes

PubMed Central

Hyman, Glenn; Barona, Elizabeth; Biradar, Chandrashekhar; Guevara, Edward; Dixon, John; Beebe, Steve; Castano, Silvia Elena; Alabi, Tunrayo; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Sivasankar, Shoba; Rivera, Ovidio; Espinosa, Herlin; Cardona, Jorge

2016-01-01

Dryland cereals and legumes  are important crops in farming systems across the world.  Yet they are frequently neglected among the priorities for international agricultural research and development, often due to lack of information on their magnitude and extent. Given what we know about the global distribution of dryland cereals and legumes, what regions should be high priority for research and development to improve livelihoods and food security? This research evaluated the geographic dimensions of these crops and the farming systems where they are found worldwide. The study employed geographic information science and data to assess the key farming systems and regions for these crops. Dryland cereal and legume crops should be given high priority in 18 farming systems worldwide, where their cultivated area comprises more than 160 million ha. These regions include the dryer areas of South Asia, West and East Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central America and other parts of Asia. These regions are prone to drought and heat stress, have limiting soil constraints, make up half of the global population and account for 60 percent of the global poor and malnourished. The dryland cereal and legume crops and farming systems merit more research and development attention to improve productivity and address development problems. This project developed an open access dataset and information resource that provides the basis for future analysis of the geographic dimensions of dryland cereals and legumes. PMID:27303632

Aeolian and fluvial processes in dryland regions: the need for integrated studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Munson, Seth M.; Field, Jason P.

2011-01-01

Aeolian and fluvial processes play a fundamental role in dryland regions of the world and have important environmental and ecological consequences from local to global scales. Although both processes operate over similar spatial and temporal scales and are likely strongly coupled in many dryland systems, aeolian and fluvial processes have traditionally been studied separately, making it difficult to assess their relative importance in drylands, as well as their potential for synergistic interaction. Land degradation by accelerated wind and water erosion is a major problem throughout the world's drylands, and although recent studies suggest that these processes likely interact across broad spatial and temporal scales to amplify the transport of soil resources from and within drylands, many researchers and land managers continue to view them as separate and unrelated processes. Here, we illustrate how aeolian and fluvial sediment transport is coupled at multiple spatial and temporal scales and highlight the need for these interrelated processes to be studied from a more integrated perspective that crosses traditional disciplinary boundaries. Special attention is given to how the growing threat of climate change and land-use disturbance will influence linkages between aeolian and fluvial processes in the future. We also present emerging directions for interdisciplinary needs within the aeolian and fluvial research communities that call for better integration across a broad range of traditional disciplines such as ecology, biogeochemistry, agronomy, and soil conservation.

Biophysical risks to carbon sequestration and storage in Australian drylands.

PubMed

Nolan, Rachael H; Sinclair, Jennifer; Eldridge, David J; Ramp, Daniel

2018-02-15

Carbon abatement schemes that reduce land clearing and promote revegetation are now an important component of climate change policy globally. There is considerable potential for these schemes to operate in drylands which are spatially extensive. However, projects in these environments risk failure through unplanned release of stored carbon to the atmosphere. In this review, we identify factors that may adversely affect the success of vegetation-based carbon abatement projects in dryland ecosystems, evaluate their likelihood of occurrence, and estimate the potential consequences for carbon storage and sequestration. We also evaluate management strategies to reduce risks posed to these carbon abatement projects. Identified risks were primarily disturbances, including unplanned fire, drought, and grazing. Revegetation projects also risk recruitment failure, thereby failing to reach projected rates of sequestration. Many of these risks are dependent on rainfall, which is highly variable in drylands and susceptible to further variation under climate change. Resprouting vegetation is likely to be less vulnerable to disturbance and have faster recovery rates upon release from disturbance. We conclude that there is a strong impetus for identifying management strategies and risk reduction mechanisms for carbon abatement projects. Risk mitigation would be enhanced by effective co-ordination of mitigation strategies at scales larger than individual abatement project boundaries, and by implementing risk assessment throughout project planning and implementation stages. Reduction of risk is vital for maximising carbon sequestration of individual projects and for reducing barriers to the establishment of new projects entering the market. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial variability of atrazine and metolachlor dissipation on dryland no-tillage crop fields in Colorado.

PubMed

Bridges, Melissa; Henry, W Brien; Shaner, Dale L; Khosla, R; Westra, Phil; Reich, Robin

2008-01-01

An area of interest in precision farming is variable-rate application of herbicides to optimize herbicide use efficiency and minimize negative off-site and non-target effects. Site-specific weed management based on field scale management zones derived from soil characteristics known to affect soil-applied herbicide efficacy could alleviate challenges posed by post-emergence precision weed management. Two commonly used soil-applied herbicides in dryland corn (Zea mays L.) production are atrazine and metolachlor. Accelerated dissipation of atrazine has been discovered recently in irrigated corn fields in eastern Colorado. The objectives of this study were (i) to compare the rates of dissipation of atrazine and metolachlor across different soil zones from three dryland no-tillage fields under laboratory incubation conditions and (ii) to determine if rapid dissipation of atrazine and/or metolachlor occurred in dryland soils. Herbicide dissipation was evaluated at time points between 0 and 35 d after soil treatment using a toluene extraction procedure with GC/MS analysis. Differential rates of atrazine and metolachlor dissipation occurred between two soil zones on two of three fields evaluated. Accelerated atrazine dissipation occurred in soil from all fields of this study, with half-lives ranging from 1.8 to 3.2 d in the laboratory. The rapid atrazine dissipation rates were likely attributed to the history of atrazine use on all fields investigated in this study. Metolachlor dissipation was not considered accelerated and exhibited half-lives ranging from 9.0 to 10.7 d in the laboratory.

Geomorphic and vegetation changes in a meandering dryland river regulated by a large dam, Sauce Grande River, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, Ana; Peiry, Jean-Luc; Campo, Alicia M.

2016-09-01

This paper investigates post-dam geomorphic and vegetation changes in the Sauce Grande River, a meandering dryland river impounded by a large water-conservation dam. As the dam impounds a river section with scarce influence of tributaries, sources for fresh water and sediment downstream are limited. Changes were inspected based on (i) analysis of historical photographs/imagery spanning pre- (1961) and post-dam (1981, 2004) channel conditions for two river segments located above and below the dam, and (ii) field survey of present channel conditions for a set of eight reference reaches along the river segments. Whilst the unregulated river exhibited active lateral migration with consequent adjustments of the channel shape and size, the river section below the dam was characterized by (i) marked planform stability (93 to 97%), and by (ii) vegetation encroachment leading to alternating yet localized contraction of the channel width (up to 30%). The present river displays a moribund, stable channel where (i) redistribution of sediment along the river course no longer occurs and (ii) channel forms constitute a remnant of a fluvial environment created before closing the dam, under conditions of higher energy. In addition to providing new information on the complex geomorphic response of dryland rivers to impoundment, this paper represents the very first geomorphic assessment of the regulated Sauce Grande and therefore provides an important platform to underpin further research assessing the geomorphic state of this highly regulated dryland river.

Restoration of Native Hawaiian Dryland Forest at Auwahi, Maui

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medieros, Arthur C.; vonAllmen, Erica

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND The powerful volcanoes that formed the high islands of the Hawaiian archipelago block northeasterly tradewinds, creating wet, windward rain forests and much drier, leeward forests. Dryland forests in Hawai'i receive only about 20 inches of rain a year. However, the trees in these forests intercept fog and increase ground moisture levels, thereby enabling these seemingly inhospitable habitats to support a diverse assemblage of plants and animals. Dryland forests of the Hawaiian Islands, like those worldwide, have been heavily impacted by humans both directly and indirectly. Less than 10% of Hawai'i's original dryland forest habitat remains. These forests have been severely impacted by urban development, ranching and agriculture, and invasive species. In particular, browsing animals and alien grasses have caused significant damage. Feral ungulates, including goats, sheep, cattle, and pigs, consume sensitive plants. Alien grasses have become dominant in the understory in many dryland habitats. In addition, these introduced grasses are fire-adapted and have increased the incidence of wildfire in these ecosystems. Native Hawaiian plants did not evolve with frequent fires or mammalian herbivores and typically do not survive well under these pressures.

Biological soil crusts as an organizing principle in drylands: Chapter 1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Weber, Bettina; Büdel, Burkhard; Weber, Bettina; Buedel, Burkhard; Belnap, Jayne

2016-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) have been present on Earth’s terrestrial surfaces for billions of years. They are a critical part of ecosystem processes in dryland regions, as they cover most of the soil surface and thus mediate almost all inputs and outputs from soils in these areas. There are many intriguing, but understudied, roles these communities may play in drylands. These include their function in nutrient capture and transformation, influence on the movement and distribution of nutrients and water within dryland soils, ability to structure vascular plant communities, role in creating biodiversity hotspots, and the possibility that they can be used as indicators of soil health. There are still many fascinating aspects of these communities that need study, and we hope that this chapter will facilitate such efforts.

Biological phosphorus cycling in dryland regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Bunemann, Else; Oberson, Astrid; Frossard, Emmanuel

2011-01-01

The relatively few studies done on phosphorus (P) cycling in arid and semiarid lands (drylands) show many factors that distinguish P cycling in drylands from that in more mesic regions. In drylands, most biologically relevant P inputs and losses are from the deposition and loss of dust. Horizontal and vertical redistribution of P is an important process. P is concentrated at the soil surface and thus vulnerable to loss via erosion. High pH and CaCO3 limit P bioavailability, and low rainfall limits microbe and plant ability to free abiotically bound P via exudates, thus making it available for uptake. Many invasive plants are able to access recalcitrant P more effectively than are native plants. As P availability depends on soil moisture and temperature, climate change is expected to have large impacts on P cycling

Testing of two source energy balance model under irrigated and dryland conditions using high resolution airborne imagery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Two Source Model (TSM) calculates the heat and water exchange and interaction between soil-atmosphere and vegetation-atmosphere separately. This is achieved through decomposition of radiometric surface temperature to soil and vegetation component temperatures either from multi-angular remotely sense...

Evaluation of SWAT for estimating ET in irrigated and dryland cropping systems in the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic models such as SWAT are used extensively for predicting water availability and water quality responses to alternative management practices. Modeling results have been used by regulatory agencies for developing remedial measures for impaired water bodies and for water planning purposes. Ho...

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.

PubMed

McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O

2012-08-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Increasing aridity reduces soil microbial diversity and abundance in global drylands.

PubMed

Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Jeffries, Thomas C; Eldridge, David J; Ochoa, Victoria; Gozalo, Beatriz; Quero, José Luis; García-Gómez, Miguel; Gallardo, Antonio; Ulrich, Werner; Bowker, Matthew A; Arredondo, Tulio; Barraza-Zepeda, Claudia; Bran, Donaldo; Florentino, Adriana; Gaitán, Juan; Gutiérrez, Julio R; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Jankju, Mohammad; Mau, Rebecca L; Miriti, Maria; Naseri, Kamal; Ospina, Abelardo; Stavi, Ilan; Wang, Deli; Woods, Natasha N; Yuan, Xia; Zaady, Eli; Singh, Brajesh K

2015-12-22

Soil bacteria and fungi play key roles in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, yet our understanding of their responses to climate change lags significantly behind that of other organisms. This gap in our understanding is particularly true for drylands, which occupy ∼41% of Earth´s surface, because no global, systematic assessments of the joint diversity of soil bacteria and fungi have been conducted in these environments to date. Here we present results from a study conducted across 80 dryland sites from all continents, except Antarctica, to assess how changes in aridity affect the composition, abundance, and diversity of soil bacteria and fungi. The diversity and abundance of soil bacteria and fungi was reduced as aridity increased. These results were largely driven by the negative impacts of aridity on soil organic carbon content, which positively affected the abundance and diversity of both bacteria and fungi. Aridity promoted shifts in the composition of soil bacteria, with increases in the relative abundance of Chloroflexi and α-Proteobacteria and decreases in Acidobacteria and Verrucomicrobia. Contrary to what has been reported by previous continental and global-scale studies, soil pH was not a major driver of bacterial diversity, and fungal communities were dominated by Ascomycota. Our results fill a critical gap in our understanding of soil microbial communities in terrestrial ecosystems. They suggest that changes in aridity, such as those predicted by climate-change models, may reduce microbial abundance and diversity, a response that will likely impact the provision of key ecosystem services by global drylands.

Increasing aridity reduces soil microbial diversity and abundance in global drylands

PubMed Central

Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Jeffries, Thomas C.; Eldridge, David J.; Ochoa, Victoria; Gozalo, Beatriz; Quero, José Luis; García-Gómez, Miguel; Gallardo, Antonio; Ulrich, Werner; Bowker, Matthew A.; Arredondo, Tulio; Barraza-Zepeda, Claudia; Bran, Donaldo; Florentino, Adriana; Gaitán, Juan; Gutiérrez, Julio R.; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Jankju, Mohammad; Mau, Rebecca L.; Miriti, Maria; Naseri, Kamal; Ospina, Abelardo; Stavi, Ilan; Wang, Deli; Woods, Natasha N.; Yuan, Xia; Zaady, Eli; Singh, Brajesh K.

2015-01-01

Soil bacteria and fungi play key roles in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, yet our understanding of their responses to climate change lags significantly behind that of other organisms. This gap in our understanding is particularly true for drylands, which occupy ∼41% of Earth´s surface, because no global, systematic assessments of the joint diversity of soil bacteria and fungi have been conducted in these environments to date. Here we present results from a study conducted across 80 dryland sites from all continents, except Antarctica, to assess how changes in aridity affect the composition, abundance, and diversity of soil bacteria and fungi. The diversity and abundance of soil bacteria and fungi was reduced as aridity increased. These results were largely driven by the negative impacts of aridity on soil organic carbon content, which positively affected the abundance and diversity of both bacteria and fungi. Aridity promoted shifts in the composition of soil bacteria, with increases in the relative abundance of Chloroflexi and α-Proteobacteria and decreases in Acidobacteria and Verrucomicrobia. Contrary to what has been reported by previous continental and global-scale studies, soil pH was not a major driver of bacterial diversity, and fungal communities were dominated by Ascomycota. Our results fill a critical gap in our understanding of soil microbial communities in terrestrial ecosystems. They suggest that changes in aridity, such as those predicted by climate-change models, may reduce microbial abundance and diversity, a response that will likely impact the provision of key ecosystem services by global drylands. PMID:26647180

Temperature and aridity regulate spatial variability of soil multifunctionality in drylands across the globe.

PubMed

Durán, Jorge; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Dougill, Andrew J; Guuroh, Reginald T; Linstädter, Anja; Thomas, Andrew D; Maestre, Fernando T

2018-05-01

The relationship between the spatial variability of soil multifunctionality (i.e., the capacity of soils to conduct multiple functions; SVM) and major climatic drivers, such as temperature and aridity, has never been assessed globally in terrestrial ecosystems. We surveyed 236 dryland ecosystems from six continents to evaluate the relative importance of aridity and mean annual temperature, and of other abiotic (e.g., texture) and biotic (e.g., plant cover) variables as drivers of SVM, calculated as the averaged coefficient of variation for multiple soil variables linked to nutrient stocks and cycling. We found that increases in temperature and aridity were globally correlated to increases in SVM. Some of these climatic effects on SVM were direct, but others were indirectly driven through reductions in the number of vegetation patches and increases in soil sand content. The predictive capacity of our structural equation modelling was clearly higher for the spatial variability of N- than for C- and P-related soil variables. In the case of N cycling, the effects of temperature and aridity were both direct and indirect via changes in soil properties. For C and P, the effect of climate was mainly indirect via changes in plant attributes. These results suggest that future changes in climate may decouple the spatial availability of these elements for plants and microbes in dryland soils. Our findings significantly advance our understanding of the patterns and mechanisms driving SVM in drylands across the globe, which is critical for predicting changes in ecosystem functioning in response to climate change. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

[Simulation of AquaCrop model and management practice optimization for dryland maize production under whole plastic-film mulching on double ridges].

PubMed

Zhang, Tao; Sun, Wei; Zhang, Feng Wei; Sun, Bu Gong; Wang, Ting; Wu, Jian Min

2017-03-18

In order to study the applicability of AquaCrop model for simulating dryland whole plastic-film mulching in double ridges cultivation mode and to find the best agronomic management measures, the data of nitrogen gradient test in 2014 and 2015 were selected to validate the variety and stress parameters in the model. The change trends of yield were simulated under different mana-gement measures. The results showed that the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the compliance index (d) of the measured and simulated production for all treatments were 717 kg·hm -2 , 10.0% and 0.96, respectively, the RMSE, NRMSE and d of the total biomass were 951 kg·hm -2 , 6.5% and 0.98, respectively, which indicated that the cultivation characteristics of the whole plastic-film mulching on double ridges maize in the dryland could be well reflected. The best fitting degree was 270 kg N·hm -2 from dynamic simulation analysis of canopy cover degrees and biomass, and with the increase of N stress, the simulation accuracy gradually declined. The best sowing time of the whole plastic-film mulching on double ridges maize in the middle part of Gansu Province was from late April to early May, the seeding density was 45000-65000 plants·hm -2 , the growth period was 130-145 days, and the nitrogen application rate was 240-280 kg·hm -2 . The results of this study had a certain reference value for the application of AcquaCrop model in arid region of Gansu, and would contribute to the transformation and popularization of agricultural cultivation techniques.

Phenazine-1-carboxylic acid and soil moisture influence biofilm development and turnover of rhizobacterial biomass on wheat root surfaces.

PubMed

LeTourneau, Melissa K; Marshall, Matthew J; Cliff, John B; Bonsall, Robert F; Dohnalkova, Alice C; Mavrodi, Dmitri V; Devi, S Indira; Mavrodi, Olga V; Harsh, James B; Weller, David M; Thomashow, Linda S

2018-04-24

Phenazine-1-carboxylic acid (PCA) is produced by rhizobacteria in dryland but not in irrigated wheat fields of the Pacific Northwest, USA. PCA promotes biofilm development in bacterial cultures and bacterial colonization of wheat rhizospheres. However, its impact upon biofilm development has not been demonstrated in the rhizosphere, where biofilms influence terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycles with ramifications for crop and soil health. Furthermore, the relationships between soil moisture and the rates of PCA biosynthesis and degradation have not been established. In this study, expression of PCA biosynthesis genes was up-regulated relative to background transcription, and persistence of PCA was slightly decreased in dryland relative to irrigated wheat rhizospheres. Biofilms in dryland rhizospheres inoculated with the PCA-producing (PCA + ) strain Pseudomonas synxantha 2-79RN 10 were more robust than those in rhizospheres inoculated with an isogenic PCA-deficient (PCA - ) mutant strain. This trend was reversed in irrigated rhizospheres. In dryland PCA + rhizospheres, the turnover of 15 N-labelled rhizobacterial biomass was slower than in the PCA - and irrigated PCA + treatments, and incorporation of bacterial 15 N into root cell walls was observed in multiple treatments. These results indicate that PCA promotes biofilm development in dryland rhizospheres, and likely influences crop nutrition and soil health in dryland wheat fields. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A feasible methodology for groundwater resource modelling for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands: Application to the Amtoudi Oasis in the northern Sahara.

PubMed

Alcalá, Francisco J; Martín-Martín, Manuel; Guerrera, Francesco; Martínez-Valderrama, Jaime; Robles-Marín, Pedro

2018-07-15

In a previous paper, the Amtoudi Oasis, a remote area in the northern Sahara in southern Morocco, was chosen to model the dynamics of groundwater-dependent economics under different scenarios of water availability, both the wet 2009-2010 and the average 2010-2011 hydrological years. Groundwater imbalance was reflected by net aquifer recharge (R) less than groundwater allotment for agriculture and urban uses in the average year 2010-2011. Three key groundwater sustainability issues from the hydrologic perspective were raised for future research, which are addressed in this paper. Introducing a feasible methodology for groundwater resource modelling for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands, this paper updates available databases, compiles new databases, and introduces new formulations to: (1) refine the net groundwater balance (W) modelling for years 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, providing the magnitude of net lateral inflow from adjacent formations (R L ), the largest R component contributing to the oasis; (2) evaluate the non-evaporative fraction of precipitation (P) (B) from 1973 onward as a proxy of the potential renewable water resource available for use; and (3) define the critical balance period for variables to reach a comparable stationary condition, as prerequisite for long-term modelling of W. R L was about 0.07-fold P and 0.85-fold R. Historical yearly B-to-P ratios were 0.02 for dry, 0.04 for average, and 0.07 for wet hydrological years; the average yearly P being 124mm. A critical 17-year balance period with stable relative error below 0.1 was defined from the 44-year P and B time-series statistical study. This is the monitoring period proposed for the stationary evaluation of the variables involved in the long-term modelling of W. This paper seeks to offer a feasible methodology for groundwater modelling addressed for planning sustainable water policies in sparse-data drylands. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal relationships among Late Pennsylvanian plant assemblages: Palynological evidence from the Markley Formation, West Texas, U.S.A.

PubMed

Looy, Cindy V; Hotton, Carol L

2014-12-01

The Pennsylvanian lowlands of western Pangea are best known for their diverse wetland floras of arborescent and herbaceous ferns, and arborescent horsetails and clubmosses. In apparent juxtaposition, a very different kind of flora, dominated by a xerophilous assemblage of conifers, taeniopterids and peltasperms, is occasionally glimpsed. Once believed to represent upland or extrabasinal floras from well-drained portions of the landscape, these dryland floras more recently have been interpreted as lowland assemblages growing during drier phases of glacial/interglacial cycles. Whether Pennsylvanian dryland and wetland floras were separated spatially or temporally remains an unsettled question, due in large part to taphonomic bias toward preservation of wetland plants. Previous paleobotanical and sedimentological analysis of the Markley Formation of latest Pennsylvanian (Gzhelian) age, from north central Texas, U.S.A, indicates close correlation between lithofacies and distinct dryland and wetland megaflora assemblages. Here we present a detailed analysis one of those localities, a section unusual in containing abundant palynomorphs, from the lower Markley Formation. Paleobotanical, palynological and lithological data from a section thought to represent a single interglacial/glacial phase are integrated and analyzed to create a complex picture of an evolving landscape. Megafloral data from throughout the Markley Formation show that conifer-dominated dryland floras occur exclusively in highly leached kaolinite beds, likely eroded from underlying soils, whereas a mosaic of wetland floras occupy histosols, ultisols, and fluvial overbank deposits. Palynological data largely conform to this pattern but reveal a more complex picture. An assemblage of mixed wetland and dryland palynofloral taxa is interpolated between a dryland assemblage and an overlying histosol containing wetland taxa. In this section, as well as elsewhere in the Markley Formation, kaolinite and overlying organic beds appear to have formed as a single genetic unit, with the kaolinite forming an impermeable aquiclude upon which a poorly drained wetland subsequently formed. Within a single inferred glacial/interglacial cycle, lithological data indicate significant fluctuations in water availability tracked by changes in palynofloral and megafloral taxa. Palynology reveals that elements of the dryland floras appear at low abundance even within wetland deposits. The combined data indicate a complex pattern of succession and suggest a mosaic of dryland and wetland plant communities in the Late Pennsylvanian. Our data alone cannot show whether dryland and wetland assemblages succeed one another temporally, or coexisted on the landscape. However, the combined evidence suggests relatively close spatial proximity within a fragmenting and increasingly arid environment.

Spatiotemporal relationships among Late Pennsylvanian plant assemblages: Palynological evidence from the Markley Formation, West Texas, U.S.A

PubMed Central

Looy, Cindy V.; Hotton, Carol L.

2014-01-01

The Pennsylvanian lowlands of western Pangea are best known for their diverse wetland floras of arborescent and herbaceous ferns, and arborescent horsetails and clubmosses. In apparent juxtaposition, a very different kind of flora, dominated by a xerophilous assemblage of conifers, taeniopterids and peltasperms, is occasionally glimpsed. Once believed to represent upland or extrabasinal floras from well-drained portions of the landscape, these dryland floras more recently have been interpreted as lowland assemblages growing during drier phases of glacial/interglacial cycles. Whether Pennsylvanian dryland and wetland floras were separated spatially or temporally remains an unsettled question, due in large part to taphonomic bias toward preservation of wetland plants. Previous paleobotanical and sedimentological analysis of the Markley Formation of latest Pennsylvanian (Gzhelian) age, from north central Texas, U.S.A, indicates close correlation between lithofacies and distinct dryland and wetland megaflora assemblages. Here we present a detailed analysis one of those localities, a section unusual in containing abundant palynomorphs, from the lower Markley Formation. Paleobotanical, palynological and lithological data from a section thought to represent a single interglacial/glacial phase are integrated and analyzed to create a complex picture of an evolving landscape. Megafloral data from throughout the Markley Formation show that conifer-dominated dryland floras occur exclusively in highly leached kaolinite beds, likely eroded from underlying soils, whereas a mosaic of wetland floras occupy histosols, ultisols, and fluvial overbank deposits. Palynological data largely conform to this pattern but reveal a more complex picture. An assemblage of mixed wetland and dryland palynofloral taxa is interpolated between a dryland assemblage and an overlying histosol containing wetland taxa. In this section, as well as elsewhere in the Markley Formation, kaolinite and overlying organic beds appear to have formed as a single genetic unit, with the kaolinite forming an impermeable aquiclude upon which a poorly drained wetland subsequently formed. Within a single inferred glacial/interglacial cycle, lithological data indicate significant fluctuations in water availability tracked by changes in palynofloral and megafloral taxa. Palynology reveals that elements of the dryland floras appear at low abundance even within wetland deposits. The combined data indicate a complex pattern of succession and suggest a mosaic of dryland and wetland plant communities in the Late Pennsylvanian. Our data alone cannot show whether dryland and wetland assemblages succeed one another temporally, or coexisted on the landscape. However, the combined evidence suggests relatively close spatial proximity within a fragmenting and increasingly arid environment. PMID:26028779

Satellite-Based Analysis of Evapotranspiration and Water Balance in the Grassland Ecosystems of Dryland East Asia

PubMed Central

Xia, Jiangzhou; Liang, Shunlin; Chen, Jiquan; Yuan, Wenping; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Linghao; Cai, Wenwen; Zhang, Li; Fu, Yang; Zhao, Tianbao; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Zhuguo; Ma, Mingguo; Liu, Shaomin; Zhou, Guangsheng; Asanuma, Jun; Chen, Shiping; Du, Mingyuan; Davaa, Gombo; Kato, Tomomichi; Liu, Qiang; Liu, Suhong; Li, Shenggong; Shao, Changliang; Tang, Yanhong; Zhao, Xiang

2014-01-01

The regression tree method is used to upscale evapotranspiration (ET) measurements at eddy-covariance (EC) towers to the grassland ecosystems over the Dryland East Asia (DEA). The regression tree model was driven by satellite and meteorology datasets, and explained 82% and 76% of the variations of ET observations in the calibration and validation datasets, respectively. The annual ET estimates ranged from 222.6 to 269.1 mm yr−1 over the DEA region with an average of 245.8 mm yr−1 from 1982 through 2009. Ecosystem ET showed decreased trends over 61% of the DEA region during this period, especially in most regions of Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia due to decreased precipitation. The increased ET occurred primarily in the western and southern DEA region. Over the entire study area, water balance (the difference between precipitation and ecosystem ET) decreased substantially during the summer and growing season. Precipitation reduction was an important cause for the severe water deficits. The drying trend occurring in the grassland ecosystems of the DEA region can exert profound impacts on a variety of terrestrial ecosystem processes and functions. PMID:24845063

Satellite-based analysis of evapotranspiration and water balance in the grassland ecosystems of Dryland East Asia.

PubMed

Xia, Jiangzhou; Liang, Shunlin; Chen, Jiquan; Yuan, Wenping; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Linghao; Cai, Wenwen; Zhang, Li; Fu, Yang; Zhao, Tianbao; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Zhuguo; Ma, Mingguo; Liu, Shaomin; Zhou, Guangsheng; Asanuma, Jun; Chen, Shiping; Du, Mingyuan; Davaa, Gombo; Kato, Tomomichi; Liu, Qiang; Liu, Suhong; Li, Shenggong; Shao, Changliang; Tang, Yanhong; Zhao, Xiang

2014-01-01

The regression tree method is used to upscale evapotranspiration (ET) measurements at eddy-covariance (EC) towers to the grassland ecosystems over the Dryland East Asia (DEA). The regression tree model was driven by satellite and meteorology datasets, and explained 82% and 76% of the variations of ET observations in the calibration and validation datasets, respectively. The annual ET estimates ranged from 222.6 to 269.1 mm yr(-1) over the DEA region with an average of 245.8 mm yr(-1) from 1982 through 2009. Ecosystem ET showed decreased trends over 61% of the DEA region during this period, especially in most regions of Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia due to decreased precipitation. The increased ET occurred primarily in the western and southern DEA region. Over the entire study area, water balance (the difference between precipitation and ecosystem ET) decreased substantially during the summer and growing season. Precipitation reduction was an important cause for the severe water deficits. The drying trend occurring in the grassland ecosystems of the DEA region can exert profound impacts on a variety of terrestrial ecosystem processes and functions.

Detecting dryland degradation through the use of Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrell, A. L.; Evans, J. P.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Dryland degradation is an issue of international significance as dryland regions play a substantial role in global food production. Remotely sensed data provide the only long term, large scale record of changes within dryland ecosystems. The Residual Trend, or RESTREND, method is applied to satellite observations to detect dryland degradation. Whilst effective in most cases, it has been shown that the RESTREND method can fail to identify degraded pixels if the relationship between vegetation and precipitation has broken-down as a result of severe or rapid degradation. This study presents an extended version of the RESTREND methodology that incorporates the Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend method to identify step changes in the time series that are related to significant structural changes in the ecosystem, e.g. land use changes. When applied to Australia, this new methodology, termed Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND), was able to detect degradation in 5.25% of pixels compared to only 2.0% for RESTREND alone. This modified methodology was then assessed in two regions with known histories of degradation where it was found to accurately capture both the timing and directionality of ecosystem change.

75 years of dryland science: Trends and gaps in arid ecology literature

PubMed Central

Dickman, Chris R.; Wardle, Glenda M.

2017-01-01

Growth in the publication of scientific articles is occurring at an exponential rate, prompting a growing need to synthesise information in a timely manner to combat urgent environmental problems and guide future research. Here, we undertake a topic analysis of dryland literature over the last 75 years (8218 articles) to identify areas in arid ecology that are well studied and topics that are emerging. Four topics—wetlands, mammal ecology, litter decomposition and spatial modelling, were identified as ‘hot topics’ that showed higher than average growth in publications from 1940 to 2015. Five topics—remote sensing, climate, habitat and spatial, agriculture and soils-microbes, were identified as ‘cold topics’, with lower than average growth over the survey period, but higher than average numbers of publications. Topics in arid ecology clustered into seven broad groups on word-based similarity. These groups ranged from mammal ecology and population genetics, broad-scale management and ecosystem modelling, plant ecology, agriculture and ecophysiology, to populations and paleoclimate. These patterns may reflect trends in the field of ecology more broadly. We also identified two broad research gaps in arid ecology: population genetics, and habitat and spatial research. Collaborations between population genetics and ecologists and investigations of ecological processes across spatial scales would contribute profitably to the advancement of arid ecology and to ecology more broadly. PMID:28384186

Analysis of parameter sensitivity and identifiability of root zone water quality model (RZWQM) for dryland sugerbeet modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sugarbeet is being considered as one of the most viable feedstock alternatives to corn for biofuel production since herbicide resistant energy beets were deregulated by USDA in 2012. Growing sugarbeets for biofuel production may have significant impacts on soil health and water quality in the north-...

Evaluation of the precision agricultural landscape modeling system (PALMS) in the semiarid Texas southern high plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate models to simulate the soil water balance in semiarid cropping systems are needed to evaluate management practices for soil and water conservation in both irrigated and dryland production systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the application of the Precision Agricultural Land...

Evaluation of the Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) in the Semiarid Texas Southern High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate models to simulate the soil water balance in semiarid cropping systems are needed to evaluate management practices for soil and water conservation in both irrigated and dryland production systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the application of the Precision Agricultural Land...

The charcoal-degradation nexus: contested 'fuelscapes' in the sub-Saharan drylands of northern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergmann, Christoph; Petersen, Maike; Roden, Paul; Nüsser, Marcus

2017-04-01

Charcoal ranks amongst the most commercialized but least regulated commodities in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite its prevalence as an energy source for cooking and heating, localized environmental and livelihood impacts of charcoal production are poorly understood so far. The identified research deficit is amplified by widespread negative views of this activity as a poverty-driven cause of deforestation and land degradation. However, the charcoal-degradation nexus is apparently more complicated, not least because the extraction of biomass from already degraded woodlands can also be interpreted as an appropriate option under given management regimes. In order to better calibrate existing research agendas to site-specific geographies of charcoal production, we propose a re-conceptualization of such energy landscapes as 'fuelscapes' with complex material and social dimensions. The concept is tested with reference to a case study in Central Pokot, northern Kenya, where charcoal production only began in the early 1990's. Based on the assumption that the fine line between sustainable land management and degradation in dryland energy landscapes is not only highly variable but also increasingly contested, our study combines the knowledge input of different stakeholders with longitudinal time series of remote sensing data. Based on the results of our interdisciplinary analyses, we outline an integrated tool for the co-operative monitoring and management of prevailing degradation processes against the background of diversified livelihood activities in sub-Saharan drylands.

Modelling the diurnal and seasonal dynamics of soil CO2 exchange in a semiarid ecosystem with high plant-interspace heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Jinnan; Wang, Ben; Jia, Xin; Feng, Wei; Zha, Tianshan; Kellomäki, Seppo; Peltola, Heli

2018-01-01

We used process-based modelling to investigate the roles of carbon-flux (C-flux) components and plant-interspace heterogeneities in regulating soil CO2 exchanges (FS) in a dryland ecosystem with sparse vegetation. To simulate the diurnal and seasonal dynamics of FS, the modelling considered simultaneously the CO2 production, transport and surface exchanges (e.g. biocrust photosynthesis, respiration and photodegradation). The model was parameterized and validated with multivariate data measured during the years 2013-2014 in a semiarid shrubland ecosystem in Yanchi, northwestern China. The model simulation showed that soil rewetting could enhance CO2 dissolution and delay the emission of CO2 produced from rooting zone. In addition, an ineligible fraction of respired CO2 might be removed from soil volumes under respiration chambers by lateral water flows and root uptakes. During rewetting, the lichen-crusted soil could shift temporally from net CO2 source to sink due to the activated photosynthesis of biocrust but the restricted CO2 emissions from subsoil. The presence of plant cover could decrease the root-zone CO2 production and biocrust C sequestration but increase the temperature sensitivities of these fluxes. On the other hand, the sensitivities of root-zone emissions to water content were lower under canopy, which may be due to the advection of water flows from the interspace to canopy. To conclude, the complexity and plant-interspace heterogeneities of soil C processes should be carefully considered to extrapolate findings from chamber to ecosystem scales and to predict the ecosystem responses to climate change and extreme climatic events. Our model can serve as a useful tool to simulate the soil CO2 efflux dynamics in dryland ecosystems.

Perceived profitability and well-being in Australian dryland farmers and irrigators.

PubMed

Peel, Dominic; Berry, Helen L; Schirmer, Jacki

2015-08-01

To describe the relationship between self-reported farm profitability and farmer well-being, and to explore potential implications for farmer assistance policy. Cross-sectional analysis of farmers from Regional Wellbeing Survey data (wave 1, 2013) and comparison between groups. Participants were 1172 dryland farmers (35% women) and 707 irrigators (24% women). The Personal Wellbeing Index and the Kessler 10-item measure of general psychological distress. There is a consistent and significant relationship between higher profitability, greater well-being and less distress among dryland farmers and irrigators. The relationship between farm profitability and the well-being of Australian dryland farmers and irrigators has the potential to inform farmer assistance policy. Assistance programs can be more effective if they explicitly incorporate a profitability assessment into their targeting and eligibility requirements and a well-being component into program design and delivery. Rural Australia. Not applicable. © 2015 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Grassland-shrubland state transitions in arid lands: Competition matters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: State transition from grassland to shrubland is synonymous with desertification in many dryland systems. The classic desertification model emphasizes abiotic feedbacks that modify the physical environment in ways that promote shrub proliferation and impede grass survival...

Phenology of Succession: Tracking the Recovery of Dryland Forests after Wildfire Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J.; Brown, J. F.; Sankey, J. B.; Wallace, C.; Weltzin, J. F.

2016-12-01

The frequency, size, and intensity of forest wildfires in the U.S. Southwest have increased over the past 30 years. In the coming decades, burn effects and altered climatic conditions may increasingly divert vegetation recovery trajectories from pre-disturbance forested ecosystems toward grassland or shrub woodlands. Dryland herbaceous and woody vegetation species exhibit different phenological responses to precipitation, resulting in temporal and spatial shifts in landscape phenology patterns as the proportions of plant functional groups change over time. We have developed time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) greenness measures derived from satellite imagery from 1984 - 2015 to record the phenological signatures that characterize recovery trajectories towards predominantly grassland, shrubland, or forest land cover types. We leveraged the data and computational resources available through the Google Earth Engine cloud-based platform to analyze time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery collected over maturing (40 years or more post-fire) dryland forests in Arizona and New Mexico, USA. These time series provided the basis for long-term comparisons of phenology behavior in different successional trajectories and enabled the assessment of climatic influence on the eventual outcomes.

Grain size indicators of sedimentary coupling between hillslopes and channels in a dryland basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollings, Rory; Michealides, Katerina; Bliss Singer, Michael

2017-04-01

In dryland landscapes, heterogeneous and short-lived rainstorms generate runoff on slopes and streamflow in channels, which drive sediment movement from hillslope surfaces to channels and the transport of bed material sediment within channels. Long-term topographic evolution of drainage basins is partly determined by the relative balance of hillslope sediment supply to channels and the evacuation of channel sediment. However, it is not clear whether supply or evacuation is dominant over longer timescales (>>100 y) within dryland basins. One important indicator of local cumulative sediment transport is grain size (GS). On dryland hillslopes, grain size is governed over long timescales by weathering, but on short time scales (events to decades), is controlled by event-driven transport of the debris mantle. In the channel, GS reflects the input of hillslope sediment and the selective transport of particles along the bed. It is currently unknown how these two processes are expressed systematically within GS distributions on slopes and in channels within drylands, but this information could be useful to explain the history of the relative balance between hillslope sediment supply to channels and net sediment transport in the channel. We investigate this problem by combining field measurements of surface sediment grain size distributions in channels and on hillslopes with 1m LiDAR topography, >60 years of rainfall and channel discharge data from the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Arizona, and simple calculations of grain-sized based local stress distributions for various rainfall and discharge events. Hydrological scenarios of overland flow on hillslopes and channel flow conditions were derived from distributions of historic data at WGEW and were selected to reflect the wide range of storm intensities and durations, and channel discharges. 1) We used three quartiles of the entire distribution of measured discharge values for 80 locations throughout the channel network to represent low, medium and high flows. 2) For rainfall we used three quartiles of the entire distribution of measured rainfall intensity and duration from 85 rain gauges spanning the basin, to derive low, medium and high rainfall durations. We then calculated the corresponding rainfall intensities based on four intensity-duration curves that were characteristic of different parts of the phase space of the measured data-points. 3) The derived rainfall intensities and durations were converted into hillslope overland flow using Coup2D (a hillslope rainfall-runoff model) for 44 hillslopes within WGEW for which we have GS and topographic data. We employ the median grain size (D50) to compare stress metrics on hillslopes and in channel for each location. Typically, low-order streams experience greater influxes of hillslope derived sediment than is evacuated by the channel. However, the main channel stem is characterised by sediment removal in most scenarios including low discharge, long duration rainfall, suggesting most hillslope supplied sediment is balanced by channel evacuation. Near tributary junctions, and close to the mouth of the basin there are fluctuations in net balance of sediment transport from evacuation- to supply-dominance for different scenarios. These fluctuations could influence channel bed GS distribution and longitudinal profile development.

Biological Soil Crusts are Ecohydrological Hotspots in Dryland and Subhumid Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belnap, J.; Chamizo de la Piedra, S.

2015-12-01

Dry and subhumid lands cover ~41% of Earth's terrestrial surface and biocrusts are often a dominant lifeform in these regions. These soil surface communities are known to be critical component in determining dryland hydrologic cycles by altering infiltration, runoff and evaporation processes; thus, they create a hotspot for ecohydrologic processes. Biocrust properties, such as micro-topography and the spatial distribution of overall cover and individual species, are believed to be the most influential; these properties vary with climate. Across the gradient from higher potential evapo-transpiration (PET; lower rainfall/higher temperatures such as hyper-arid deserts) to lower PET (higher rainfall/lower temperature such as semi-arid steppe), the external morphology of biocrusts generally goes from very smooth to highly roughened, with water residence time thus increasing as well. This change in PET is also accompanied by increasing species number and biomass; while these changes increase water absorption, they also clogs soil pores. It has long been believed that as biocrust roughness, species, and biomass increases, so does water infiltration and retention. However, the majority of these studies have occurred at a very small (< 2m2) spatial scale. Interesting, when done at the small scale, the current dogma holds: smooth biocrusts with low biomass decrease infiltration and increase runoff, whereas roughened ones with higher biomass increase infiltration. However, studies done at larger spatial scales across a gradient of roughness, species composition, and biomass, show biocrusts almost always increase infiltration and decrease runoff, regardless of biocrust characteristics. This finding runs counter to long-held views regarding the role of biocrusts in hydrologic cycles. These findings have large implications for modelling of soil moisture cycles in drylands under current and future conditions and the concept of ecohydrologic hotspots and hot moments in drylands.

Beyond desertification: New paradigms for dryland landscapes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The dryland desertification paradigm focuses on losses of ecosystem services accompanying transitions from grasslands to systems dominated by bare ground or woody plants unpalatable for domestic livestock. However, recent studies reveal complex transitions across a range of environmental conditions ...

Emerging technological and cultural shifts advancing drylands research and management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services in dryland landscapes is complicated by extreme conditions that constrain biological responses to perturbation, vast spatial and temporal complexity, and uncertainty regarding the resilience of these ecosystems to management practices and climate change...

Sustainable dryland agroecosystems management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Dryland Agroecosystem Project was established in the fall of 1985 with 1986 being the first harvest year. Grain and stover yields, crop residue amounts, soil water measurements, crop management, crop nutrient content and climate data have been reported annually in previously published technical...

Water from air: An overlooked source of moisture in arid and semiarid regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

McHugh, Theresa; Morrissey, Ember M.; Reed, Sasha C.; Hungate, Bruce A.; Schwartz, Egbert

2015-01-01

Water drives the functioning of Earth’s arid and semiarid lands. Drylands can obtain water from sources other than precipitation, yet little is known about how non-rainfall water inputs influence dryland communities and their activity. In particular, water vapor adsorption – movement of atmospheric water vapor into soil when soil air is drier than the overlying air – likely occurs often in drylands, yet its effects on ecosystem processes are not known. By adding 18O-enriched water vapor to the atmosphere of a closed system, we documented the conversion of water vapor to soil liquid water across a temperature range typical of arid ecosystems. This phenomenon rapidly increased soil moisture and stimulated microbial carbon (C) cycling, and the flux of water vapor to soil had a stronger impact than temperature on microbial activity. In a semiarid grassland, we also observed that non-rainfall water inputs stimulated microbial activity and C cycling. Together these data suggest that, during rain-free periods, atmospheric moisture in drylands may significantly contribute to variation in soil water content, thereby influencing ecosystem processes. The simple physical process of adsorption of water vapor to soil particles, forming liquid water, represents an overlooked but potentially important contributor to C cycling in drylands.

Sustainable dryland agroecosystems management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Dryland Agroecosystem Project with No-till management was established in the fall of 1985, with 1986 being the first harvest year. Grain and stover yields, crop residue amounts, soil water measurements, crop nutrient content and climate data have been reported annually in previously published t...

Dryland responses to global change suggest the potential for rapid non-linear responses to some changes but resilience to others

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, S.; Ferrenberg, S.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.; Wertin, T. M.; McHugh, T. A.; Morrissey, E.; Kuske, C.; Belnap, J.

2017-12-01

Drylands represent our planet's largest terrestrial biome, making up over 35% of Earth's land surface. In the context of this vast areal extent, it is no surprise that recent research suggests dryland inter-annual variability and responses to change have the potential to drive biogeochemical cycles and climate at the global-scale. Further, the data we do have suggest drylands can respond rapidly and non-linearly to change. Nevertheless, our understanding of the cross-system consistency of and mechanisms behind dryland responses to a changed environment remains relatively poor. This poor understanding hinders not only our larger understanding of terrestrial ecosystem function, but also our capacity to forecast future global biogeochemical cycles and climate. Here we present data from a series of Colorado Plateau manipulation experiments - including climate, land use, and nitrogen deposition manipulations - to explore how vascular plants, microbial communities, and biological soil crusts (a community of mosses, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria living in the interspace among vascular plants in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide) respond to a host of environmental changes. These responses include not only assessments of community composition, but of their function as well. We will explore photosynthesis, net soil CO2 exchange, soil carbon stocks and chemistry, albedo, and nutrient cycling. The experiments were begun with independent questions and cover a range of environmental change drivers and scientific approaches, but together offer a relatively holistic picture of how some drylands can change their structure and function in response to change. In particular, the data show very high ecosystem vulnerability to particular drivers, but surprising resilience to others, suggesting a multi-faceted response of these diverse systems.

Effect of aquatic interval training with Mediterranean diet counseling in obese patients: results of a preliminary study.

PubMed

Boidin, Maxime; Lapierre, Gabriel; Paquette Tanir, Laurie; Nigam, Anil; Juneau, Martin; Guilbeault, Valérie; Latour, Elise; Gayda, Mathieu

2015-10-01

No previous studies have investigated a high-intensity interval training program (HIIT) with an immersed ergocycle and Mediterranean diet counseling (Med) in obese patients. We aimed to compare the effects of an intensive lifestyle intervention, Med and HIIT with a water-immersed versus dryland ergocycle, on cardiometabolic and exercise parameters in obese patients. We retrospectively identified 95 obese patients at their entry into a 9-month Med and HIIT program: 21 were trained on a water-immersed ergocycle and 74 on a standard dryland ergocycle. Body composition, cardiometabolic and exercise parameters were measured before and after the program. For obese patients performing water- and dryland-exercise (mean age 58±9 years versus 55±7 years), BMI was higher for the water- than dryland-exercise group (39.4±8.3kg/m(2) versus 34.7±5.1kg/m(2), P<0.05), and total fat mass, fasting glycemia and triglycerides level were higher (P<0.05). Both groups showed similarly improved body composition variables (body mass, waist circumference, fat mass, P<0.001), fasting glycemia and triglycerides level (P<0.05). Initial maximal aerobic capacity (metabolic equivalents [METs]) and maximal heart rate (HRmax) were lower for the water- than dryland-exercise group (P<0.05). For both groups, METs, resting HR, resting blood pressure, abdominal and leg muscle endurance were similarly improved (P<0.05). A long-term Mediterranean diet and HIIT program with water-cycling is as effective as a dryland program in improving body composition, fasting glucose, triglycerides level, blood pressure and fitness in obese patients. A Mediterranean diet combined with water-cycling HIIT may be efficient for severely obese patients at high risk of musculoskeletal conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The geomorphology of wetlands in drylands: Resilience, nonresilience, or …?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tooth, Stephen

2018-03-01

Over the last decade, much attention has focused on wetland resilience to disturbances such as extreme weather events, longer climate change, and human activities. In geomorphology and cognate disciplines, resilience is defined in various ways and has physical and socioeconomic dimensions but commonly is taken to mean the ability of a system to (A) withstand disturbance, (B) recover from disturbance, or (C) adapt and evolve in response to disturbance to a more desirable (e.g., stable) configuration. Most studies of wetland resilience have tended to focus on the more-or-less permanently saturated humid region wetlands, but whether the findings can be readily transferred to wetlands in drylands remains unclear. Given the natural climatic variability and overall strong moisture deficit characteristic of drylands, are such wetlands likely to be more resilient or less resilient? Focusing on wetlands in the South African drylands, this paper uses existing geomorphological, sedimentological, and geochronological data sets to provide the spatial (up to 50 km2) and temporal (late Quaternary) framework for an assessment of geomorphological resilience. Some wetlands have been highly resilient to environmental (especially climate) change, but others have been nonresilient with marked transformations in channel-floodplain structure and process connectivity having been driven by natural factors (e.g., local base-level fall, drought) or human activities (e.g., channel excavation, floodplain drainage). Key issues related to the assessment of wetland resilience include channel-floodplain dynamics in relation to geomorphological thresholds, wetland geomorphological 'life cycles', and the relative roles of natural and human activities. These issues raise challenges for the involvement of geomorphologists in the practical application of the resilience concept in wetland management. A key consideration is how geomorphological resilience interfaces with other dimensions of resilience, especially ecological resilience and socioeconomic resilience, the latter commonly being defined in terms of ecosystem service delivery.

Desertification, land use, and the transformation of global drylands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Desertification is an escalating concern in global drylands, yet assessments to guide management and policy responses are limited by ambiguity concerning what this term means and what processes are involved. In order to provide greater clarity, we propose that desertification assessments be placed w...

Landsat 8 and ICESat-2: Performance and potential synergies for quantifying dryland ecosystem vegetation cover and biomass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, Nancy F.; Neuenschwander, Amy; Vierling, Lee A.; Spaete, Lucas; Li, Aihua; Shinneman, Douglas; Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert; McIlroy, Susan

2016-01-01

To estimate the potential synergies of OLI and ICESat-2 we used simulated ICESat-2 photon data to predict vegetation structure. In a shrubland environment with a vegetation mean height of 1 m and mean vegetation cover of 33%, vegetation photons are able to explain nearly 50% of the variance in vegetation height. These results, and those from a comparison site, suggest that a lower detection threshold of ICESat-2 may be in the range of 30% canopy cover and roughly 1 m height in comparable dryland environments and these detection thresholds could be used to combine future ICESat-2 photon data with OLI spectral data for improved vegetation structure. Overall, the synergistic use of Landsat 8 and ICESat-2 may improve estimates of above-ground biomass and carbon storage in drylands that meet these minimum thresholds, increasing our ability to monitor drylands for fuel loading and the potential to sequester carbon.

Understanding the role of ecohydrological feedbacks in ecosystem state change in drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turnbull, L.; Wilcox, B.P.; Belnap, J.; Ravi, S.; D'Odorico, P.; Childers, D.; Gwenzi, W.; Okin, G.; Wainwright, J.; Caylor, K.K.; Sankey, T.

2012-01-01

Ecohydrological feedbacks are likely to be critical for understanding the mechanisms by which changes in exogenous forces result in ecosystem state change. We propose that in drylands, the dynamics of ecosystem state change are determined by changes in the type (stabilizing vs amplifying) and strength of ecohydrological feedbacks following a change in exogenous forces. Using a selection of five case studies from drylands, we explore the characteristics of ecohydrological feedbacks and resulting dynamics of ecosystem state change. We surmise that stabilizing feedbacks are critical for the provision of plant-essential resources in drylands. Exogenous forces that break these stabilizing feedbacks can alter the state of the system, although such changes are potentially reversible if strong amplifying ecohydrological feedbacks do not develop. The case studies indicate that if amplifying ecohydrological feedbacks do develop, they are typically associated with abiotic processes such as runoff, erosion (by wind and water), and fire. These amplifying ecohydrological feedbacks progressively modify the system in ways that are long-lasting and possibly irreversible on human timescales.

Water and Nitrogen Limitations of Ecosystem Processes Across Three Dryland Plant Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltz, C.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Burke, I. C.

2017-12-01

The availability of water and nitrogen (N) play a major role in controlling the distribution of ecosystem types and the rates of ecosystem processes across the globe. Both these resources are being altered by human activity. Anthropogenic fixation of N has increased inputs into the biosphere from 0.5 kg N ha-1 yr-1 to upwards of 10 kg N ha-1 yr-1, while the amount and seasonality of precipitation are expected to continue to change. Within dryland environments, the relationships between increasingly available N and ecosystem processes are especially complex due to dryland's characteristic strong limitation by low and highly variable precipitation. Other experiments have shown that this interplay between N and water can cause temporally complex co-limitation and spatially complex responses with variable effects on ecosystems, such as those to net primary productivity, soil respiration, and plant community composition. Research spanning multiple dryland plant communities is critical for generalizing findings to the 40% of the Earth's terrestrial surface covered in dryland ecosystems. Given IPCC projections in which both N availability and precipitation are altered, examining their interactive effect across multiple plant communities is critical to increasing our understanding of the limitations to ecosystem process in drylands. We are studying a gradient of three plant communities representing a C4 grassland (shortgrass steppe), a C3/C4 grassland (mixed grass prairie), and a shrub-dominated ecosystem with C3 and C4 grasses (sagebrush steppe). We added two levels of N (10 kg N ha-1 and 100 kg N ha-1) and increased summer monthly precipitation by 20%. Sites responded differently to treatments, with the scale of effect varying by treatment. The high-level nitrogen increased soil N availability and soil respiration, while decreasing soil carbon in the labile pool in the upper soil layers. These results will allow for better understanding of increased N in combination with altered water availability across different plant communities and ecosystems, particularly helping to close the gap in knowledge on the effects of low-level, chronic N addition in drylands.

Development of dryland oilseed production systems in northwestern region of the USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This report addresses the development of dryland oilseed crops to provide feedstock for production of biofuels in semiarid portions of the northwestern United States. Bioenergy feedstocks derived from Brassica oilseed crops have been considered for production of hydrotreated renewable jet fuel, but...

New ecology education: Preparing students for the complex human-environmental problems of dryland East Asia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Present-day environmental problems of Dryland East Asia are serious, and future prospects look especially disconcerting owing to current trends in population growth and economic development. Land degradation and desertification, invasive species, biodiversity losses, toxic waste and air pollution, a...

Critical thresholds and recovery of Chihuahuan Desert grasslands: Insights from long-term data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: Desertification and other harmful state transitions in drylands are expected to accelerate with global change. Ecologists are called upon to devise methods to anticipate critical thresholds and promote recovery of desired states. As in other drylands, transitions in sem...

Biocrust-forming mosses mitigate the impact of aridity on soil microbial communities in drylands: observational evidence from three continents.

PubMed

Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Maestre, Fernando T; Eldridge, David J; Bowker, Matthew A; Jeffries, Thomas C; Singh, Brajesh K

2018-04-02

Recent research indicates that increased aridity linked to climate change will reduce the diversity of soil microbial communities and shift their community composition in drylands, Earth's largest biome. However, we lack both a theoretical framework and solid empirical evidence of how important biotic components from drylands, such as biocrust-forming mosses, will regulate the responses of microbial communities to expected increases in aridity with climate change. Here we report results from a cross-continental (North America, Europe and Australia) survey of 39 locations from arid to humid ecosystems, where we evaluated how biocrust-forming mosses regulate the relationship between aridity and the community composition and diversity of soil bacteria and fungi in dryland ecosystems. Increasing aridity was negatively related to the richness of fungi, and either positively or negatively related to the relative abundance of selected microbial phyla, when biocrust-forming mosses were absent. Conversely, we found an overall lack of relationship between aridity and the relative abundance and richness of microbial communities under biocrust-forming mosses. Our results suggest that biocrust-forming mosses mitigate the impact of aridity on the community composition of globally distributed microbial taxa, and the diversity of fungi. They emphasize the importance of maintaining biocrusts as a sanctuary for soil microbes in drylands. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Changes in biocrust cover drive carbon cycle responses to climate change in drylands.

PubMed

Maestre, Fernando T; Escolar, Cristina; de Guevara, Mónica Ladrón; Quero, José L; Lázaro, Roberto; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Ochoa, Victoria; Berdugo, Miguel; Gozalo, Beatriz; Gallardo, Antonio

2013-12-01

Dryland ecosystems account for ca. 27% of global soil organic carbon (C) reserves, yet it is largely unknown how climate change will impact C cycling and storage in these areas. In drylands, soil C concentrates at the surface, making it particularly sensitive to the activity of organisms inhabiting the soil uppermost levels, such as communities dominated by lichens, mosses, bacteria and fungi (biocrusts). We conducted a full factorial warming and rainfall exclusion experiment at two semiarid sites in Spain to show how an average increase of air temperature of 2-3 °C promoted a drastic reduction in biocrust cover (ca. 44% in 4 years). Warming significantly increased soil CO2 efflux, and reduced soil net CO2 uptake, in biocrust-dominated microsites. Losses of biocrust cover with warming through time were paralleled by increases in recalcitrant C sources, such as aromatic compounds, and in the abundance of fungi relative to bacteria. The dramatic reduction in biocrust cover with warming will lessen the capacity of drylands to sequester atmospheric CO2 . This decrease may act synergistically with other warming-induced effects, such as the increase in soil CO2 efflux and the changes in microbial communities to alter C cycling in drylands, and to reduce soil C stocks in the mid to long term. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hydroclimatic regimes: a distributed water-balance framework for hydrologic assessment, classification, and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiskel, Peter K.; Wolock, David M.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Vogel, Richard M.; Levin, Sara B.; Lent, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Runoff-based indicators of terrestrial water availability are appropriate for humid regions, but have tended to limit our basic hydrologic understanding of drylands – the dry-subhumid, semiarid, and arid regions which presently cover nearly half of the global land surface. In response, we introduce an indicator framework that gives equal weight to humid and dryland regions, accounting fully for both vertical (precipitation + evapotranspiration) and horizontal (groundwater + surface-water) components of the hydrologic cycle in any given location – as well as fluxes into and out of landscape storage. We apply the framework to a diverse hydroclimatic region (the conterminous USA) using a distributed water-balance model consisting of 53 400 networked landscape hydrologic units. Our model simulations indicate that about 21% of the conterminous USA either generated no runoff or consumed runoff from upgradient sources on a mean-annual basis during the 20th century. Vertical fluxes exceeded horizontal fluxes across 76% of the conterminous area. Long-term-average total water availability (TWA) during the 20th century, defined here as the total influx to a landscape hydrologic unit from precipitation, groundwater, and surface water, varied spatially by about 400 000-fold, a range of variation ~100 times larger than that for mean-annual runoff across the same area. The framework includes but is not limited to classical, runoff-based approaches to water-resource assessment. It also incorporates and reinterprets the green- and blue-water perspective now gaining international acceptance. Implications of the new framework for several areas of contemporary hydrology are explored, and the data requirements of the approach are discussed in relation to the increasing availability of gridded global climate, land-surface, and hydrologic data sets.

Climate change impacts on yields and soil carbon in dryland agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5), utilizing long-term experiment...

Dust-associated Microbiomes from Dryland Wheat Fields Differ with Tillage Practice and Biosolids Application

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wind erosion is a significant threat to the productivity and sustainability of agricultural soils. In the dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow region of Inland Pacific Northwest of the USA (PNW), farmers increasingly use conservation tillage practices to control wind erosion. In addit...

Planting geometry and growing season effects on the growth and yield of dryland cotton

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The declining Ogallala Aquifer beneath the Southern High Plains may necessitate dryland crop production and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is a well-adapted and potentially profitable alternative crop. The limited growing season duration of the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas, however, impos...

Precipitation legacy effects on dryland ecosystem carbon fluxes: direction, magnitude and biogeochemical carryovers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The precipitation legacy effect, defined as the impact of historical precipitation (PPT) on extant ecosystem dynamics, has been recognized as an important driver in shaping the temporal variability of dryland aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and soil respiration. How the PPT legacy influenc...

Intensifying a semi-arid dryland crop rotation by replacing fallow with pea

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing dryland cropping system intensity in the semi-arid central Great Plains by reducing frequency of fallow can add diversity to cropping systems and decrease erosion potential. However elimination of the periodic fallow phase has been shown to reduce yields of subsequent crops in this region...

Life-cycle analysis of dryland greenhouse gases affected by cropping sequence and nitrogen fertilization

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Little information is available about management practices effect on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) under dryland cropping systems. We evaluated the effects of cropping sequences (conventional till malt barley-fallow [CTB-F], no-till malt barley-pea [NTB-P], a...

Considerations for achieving cross-platform point cloud data fusion across different dryland ecosystem structural states

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dryland ecosystems undergo long periods of senescence punctuated by rapid growth following seasonal precipitation events. Remote sensing of vegetation dynamics which capture new growth as well as herbivory and disturbance require both high spatial and temporal resolution data acquired by various op...

Sustainable semiarid dryland production in relation to tillage effects on Hydrology: 1983-2013

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Semiarid dryland crop yields with no-till, NT, residue management are often greater than stubble-mulch tillage, SM, as a result of improved soil conditions or water conservation, but knowledge of long-term tillage effects on the comprehensive field hydrology and sustained crop production is needed. ...

Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

Relations between rainfall–runoff-induced erosion and aeolian deposition at archaeological sites in a semi-arid dam-controlled river corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, Brian D.; Bedford, David; Corbett, Skye C.; Fairley, Helen C.; Cronkite-Ratcliff, Collin

2016-01-01

Process dynamics in fluvial-based dryland environments are highly complex with fluvial, aeolian, and alluvial processes all contributing to landscape change. When anthropogenic activities such as dam-building affect fluvial processes, the complexity in local response can be further increased by flood- and sediment-limiting flows. Understanding these complexities is key to predicting landscape behavior in drylands and has important scientific and management implications, including for studies related to paleoclimatology, landscape ecology evolution, and archaeological site context and preservation. Here we use multi-temporal LiDAR surveys, local weather data, and geomorphological observations to identify trends in site change throughout the 446-km-long semi-arid Colorado River corridor in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, where archaeological site degradation related to the effects of upstream dam operation is a concern. Using several site case studies, we show the range of landscape responses that might be expected from concomitant occurrence of dam-controlled fluvial sand bar deposition, aeolian sand transport, and rainfall-induced erosion. Empirical rainfall-erosion threshold analyses coupled with a numerical rainfall–runoff–soil erosion model indicate that infiltration-excess overland flow and gullying govern large-scale (centimeter- to decimeter-scale) landscape changes, but that aeolian deposition can in some cases mitigate gully erosion. Whereas threshold analyses identify the normalized rainfall intensity (defined as the ratio of rainfall intensity to hydraulic conductivity) as the primary factor governing hydrologic-driven erosion, assessment of false positives and false negatives in the dataset highlight topographic slope as the next most important parameter governing site response. Analysis of 4+ years of high resolution (four-minute) weather data and 75+ years of low resolution (daily) climate records indicates that dryland erosion is dependent on short-term, storm-driven rainfall intensity rather than cumulative rainfall, and that erosion can occur outside of wet seasons and even wet years. These results can apply to other similar semi-arid landscapes where process complexity may not be fully understood.

A statistical method to predict flow permanence in dryland streams from time series of stream temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Dunham, Jason B.; Heck, Michael; Schultz, Luke; Hockman-Wert, David

2017-01-01

Intermittent and ephemeral streams represent more than half of the length of the global river network. Dryland freshwater ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changes in human-related water uses as well as shifts in terrestrial climates. Yet, the description and quantification of patterns of flow permanence in these systems is challenging mostly due to difficulties in instrumentation. Here, we took advantage of existing stream temperature datasets in dryland streams in the northwest Great Basin desert, USA, to extract critical information on climate-sensitive patterns of flow permanence. We used a signal detection technique, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), to extract information from daily time series of stream temperature to diagnose patterns of stream drying. Specifically, we applied HMMs to time series of daily standard deviation (SD) of stream temperature (i.e., dry stream channels typically display highly variable daily temperature records compared to wet stream channels) between April and August (2015–2016). We used information from paired stream and air temperature data loggers as well as co-located stream temperature data loggers with electrical resistors as confirmatory sources of the timing of stream drying. We expanded our approach to an entire stream network to illustrate the utility of the method to detect patterns of flow permanence over a broader spatial extent. We successfully identified and separated signals characteristic of wet and dry stream conditions and their shifts over time. Most of our study sites within the entire stream network exhibited a single state over the entire season (80%), but a portion of them showed one or more shifts among states (17%). We provide recommendations to use this approach based on a series of simple steps. Our findings illustrate a successful method that can be used to rigorously quantify flow permanence regimes in streams using existing records of stream temperature.

Determining suitability of Large Aperture Scintillometer for validating remote sensing based evapotranspiration maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, G.; Gowda, P. H.; Howell, T. A.; Basu, S.; Colaizzi, P. D.; Marek, T.

2013-12-01

Scintillation method is a relatively new technique for measuring the sensible heat and water fluxes over land surfaces. Path integrating capabilities of scintillometer over heterogeneous landscapes make it a potential tool for comparing the energy fluxes derived from remote sensing based energy balance algorithms. For this reason, scintillometer-derived evapotranspiration (ET) fluxes are being used to evaluate remote sensing based energy balance algorithms for their ability to estimate ET fluxes. However, LAS' (Large Aperture Scintillometer) ability to derive ET fluxes is not thoroughly tested. The objective of this study was to evaluate LAS- and Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS)-derived fluxes against lysimetric data to determine LAS' suitability for validating remote sensing based evapotranspiration (ET) maps. The study was conducted during the Bushland Evapotranspiration and Agricultural Remote sensing EXperiment - 2008 (BEAREX-08) at the USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory (CPRL), Bushland, Texas. SEBS was coded in a GIS environment to retrieve ET fluxes from the high resolution imageries acquired using airborne multispectral sensors. The CPRL has four large weighing lysimeters (3 m long x 3 m wide x 2.4 m deep), each located in the middle of approximately 5 ha fields, arranged in a block pattern. The two lysimeter fields located on the east (NE and SE) were managed under irrigated conditions, and the other two lysimeters on the west (NW and SW) were under dryland management. Each lysimeter field was equipped with an automated weather station that provided measurements for net radiation (Rn), Ts, soil heat flux (Go), Ta, relative humidity, and wind speed. During BEAREX08, the NE and SE fields were planted to cotton on May 21, and the NW and SW dryland lysimeters fields were planted to cotton on June 5. One LAS each was deployed across two large dryland lysimeter fields (NW and SW) and two large irrigated lysimeter fields (NE and SE). The structural parameter of refractive index of air was measured at 1-min interval and averaged at 15-min, and synchronized with weather station. The source area (footprint) of the surface energy fluxes were computed using a footprint model. ET fluxes were derived using LAS-estimated H as a residual from the energy balance equation. Comparison of SEBS- and LAS-derived ET fluxes were made against lysimetric data and performance of each method was discussed to determine the suitability of LAS for evaluating accuracy of remote sensing based ET maps.

Microbial Nursery Production of High-Quality Biological Soil Crust Biomass for Restoration of Degraded Dryland Soils

PubMed Central

Velasco Ayuso, Sergio; Giraldo Silva, Ana; Nelson, Corey; Barger, Nichole N.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are slow-growing, phototroph-based microbial assemblages that develop on the topsoils of drylands. Biocrusts help maintain soil fertility and reduce erosion. Because their loss through human activities has negative ecological and environmental health consequences, biocrust restoration is of interest. Active soil inoculation with biocrust microorganisms can be an important tool in this endeavor. We present a culture-independent, two-step process to grow multispecies biocrusts in open greenhouse nursery facilities, based on the inoculation of local soils with local biocrust remnants and incubation under seminatural conditions that maintain the essence of the habitat but lessen its harshness. In each of four U.S. Southwest sites, we tested and deployed combinations of factors that maximized growth (gauged as chlorophyll a content) while minimizing microbial community shifts (assessed by 16S rRNA sequencing and bioinformatics), particularly for crust-forming cyanobacteria. Generally, doubling the frequency of natural wetting events, a 60% reduction in sunlight, and inoculation by slurry were optimal. Nutrient addition effects were site specific. In 4 months, our approach yielded crusts of high inoculum quality reared on local soil exposed to locally matched climates, acclimated to desiccation, and containing communities minimally shifted in composition from local ones. Our inoculum contained abundant crust-forming cyanobacteria and no significant numbers of allochthonous phototrophs, and it was sufficient to treat ca. 6,000 m2 of degraded dryland soils at 1 to 5% of the typical crust biomass concentration, having started from a natural crust remnant as small as 6 to 30 cm2. IMPORTANCE Soil surface crusts can protect dryland soils from erosion, but they are often negatively impacted by human activities. Their degradation causes a loss of fertility, increased production of fugitive dust and intensity of dust storms with associated traffic problems, and provokes general public health hazards. Our results constitute an advance in the quest to actively restore biological soil covers by providing a means to obtain high-quality inoculum within a reasonable time (a few months), thereby allowing land managers to recover essential, but damaged, ecosystem services in a sustainable, self-perpetuating way as provided by biocrust communities. PMID:27864178

Impact of phenazine-producing pseudomonads upon Fe and Mn bioavailability in the rhizosphere of dryland wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Large populations of plant-growth-promoting Pseudomonas fluorescens strains producing up to 1 µg/g root of the redox-active antibiotic phenazine-1-carboxylic acid (PCA) have been discovered in dryland but not irrigated wheat fields throughout the low precipitation zone of the Columbia Plateau of the...

Row and plant spacing effects on growth and yield of dryland cotton where growing season duration is limited

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Irrigation water availability is decreasing in the Southern Great Plains due to continued pumping from the Ogallala aquifer. Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is a profitable alternative crop suited to sustainable dryland production. However, the growing season of the Texas Panhandle and southwestern...

Rainfall probability and EONR for dryland corn in Colorado

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrogen fertilizer costs have increased 70% in the last 6 yrs in the Central Great Plains Region (CGPR). This cost increase coincides with a decrease in dryland grain yields due to drought. How does the economic optimum N rate (EONR) change with grain price and fertilizer cost? Here we evaluated 11...

Climate change predicted to negatively influence surface soil health of dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator of agricultural productivity and overall soil health. Currently, dryland cropping systems of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW) span a large gradient in mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP). These climatic drivers are major determinants ...

Replacing fallow with forage triticale in dryland crop rotations increases profitability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A common dryland rotational cropping system in the semi-arid central Great Plains of the U.S. is wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-corn (Zea mays L.)-fallow (WCF). However, the 12-month fallow period following corn production has been shown to be relatively inefficient in storing precipitation during the...

Defining a dryland grain sorghum production function for the Central Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) is a drought tolerant C4 species capable of making use of limited available water supplies and is suitable for dryland crop rotations in the central Great Plains. In order for farmers to assess the production risk encountered when utilizing sorghum in rotati...

Long-term No-Till: A Major Driver of Fungal Communities in Dryland Wheat Cropping Systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the dryland Pacific Northwest wheat cropping systems, no-till is becoming more prevalent as a way to reduce soil erosion and fuel inputs. Tillage can have a profound effect on microbial communities and soilborne fungal pathogens, such as Rhizoctonia. We compared the fungal communities in long-ter...

Evolution of the phenazine biosynthesis pathway and diversity of phenazine-producing Pseudomonas spp. in dryland wheat-producing areas of Washington state

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phenazines are versatile secondary metabolites of bacterial origin that function as signaling compounds and contribute to the ecological fitness and pathogenicity of the producing strains. A 2007-2008 survey of commercial dryland fields in central Washington State (annual precipitation <15 in) revea...

Primary succession on a Hawaiian dryland chronosequence

Treesearch

Kealohanuiopuna M. Kinney; Gregory P. Asner; Susan Cordell; Oliver A. Chadwick; Katherine Heckman; Sara Hotchkiss; Marjeta Jeraj; Ty Kennedy-Bowdoin; David E. Knapp

2015-01-01

We used measurements from airborne imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR to quantify the biophysical structure and composition of vegetation on a dryland substrate age gradient in Hawaii. Both vertical stature and species composition changed during primary succession, and reveal a progressive increase in vertical stature on younger substrates followed by a collapse on...

Long-term conventional and no-tillage effects on field hydrology and yields of a dryland crop rotation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Semiarid dryland crop yields with no-till, NT, residue management are often greater than stubble-mulch, SM, tillage as a result of improved soil conditions and water conservation, but information on long-term tillage effects on field hydrology and sustained crop production are needed. Our objective ...

Spatial distributions of Cephus cinctus Norton (Hymenoptera: Cephidae) and its braconid parasitoids in Montana wheat fields

Treesearch

David K. Weaver; Christian Nansen; Justin B. Runyon; Sharlene E. Sing; Wendell L. Morrill

2005-01-01

Bracon cephi and Bracon lissogaster are native parasitoids of the wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus, an important pest of dryland wheat production. This spatial distribution study, using survey data from seven dryland wheat fields at four locations in north-central Montana over two years, examined: (1) the...

Soil microbial communities drive the resistance of ecosystem multifunctionality to global change in drylands across the globe.

PubMed

Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Eldridge, David J; Ochoa, Victoria; Gozalo, Beatriz; Singh, Brajesh K; Maestre, Fernando T

2017-10-01

The relationship between soil microbial communities and the resistance of multiple ecosystem functions linked to C, N and P cycling (multifunctionality resistance) to global change has never been assessed globally in natural ecosystems. We collected soils from 59 dryland ecosystems worldwide to investigate the importance of microbial communities as predictor of multifunctionality resistance to climate change and nitrogen fertilisation. Multifunctionality had a lower resistance to wetting-drying cycles than to warming or N deposition. Multifunctionality resistance was regulated by changes in microbial composition (relative abundance of phylotypes) but not by richness, total abundance of fungi and bacteria or the fungal: bacterial ratio. Our results suggest that positive effects of particular microbial taxa on multifunctionality resistance could potentially be controlled by altering soil pH. Together, our work demonstrates strong links between microbial community composition and multifunctionality resistance in dryland soils from six continents, and provides insights into the importance of microbial community composition for buffering effects of global change in drylands worldwide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Surprisingly robust projections of soil temperature and moisture for North American drylands in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradford, J. B.; Schlaepfer, D.; Palmquist, K. A.; Lauenroth, W.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for western North America suggest temperature increases that are relatively consistent across climate models. However, precipitation projections are less consistent, especially in the Southwest, promoting uncertainty about the future of soil moisture and drought. We utilized a daily time-step ecosystem water balance model to characterize soil temperature and moisture patterns at a 10-km resolution across western North America for historical (1980-2010), mid-century (2020-2050), and late century (2070-2100). We simulated soil moisture and temperature under two representative concentration pathways and eleven climate models (selected strategically to represent the range of variability in projections among the full set of models in the CMIP5 database and perform well in hind-cast comparisons for the region), and we use the results to identify areas with robust projections, e.g. areas where the large majority of models agree in the direction of change in long-term average soil moisture or temperature. Rising air temperatures will increase average soil temperatures across western North America and expand the area of mesic and thermic soil temperature regimes while decreasing the area of cryic and frigid regimes. Future soil moisture conditions are relatively consistent across climate models for much of the region, including many areas with variable precipitation trajectories. Consistent projections for drier soils are expected in most of Arizona and New Mexico, similar to previous studies. Other regions with projections for declining soil moisture include the central and southern U.S. Great Plains and large parts of southern British Columbia. By contrast, areas with robust projections for increasing soil moisture include northeastern Montana, southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and many areas in the intermountain west dominated by big sagebrush. In addition, seasonal moisture patterns in much of the western US drylands are expected to shift toward cool-season water availability, with potentially important consequences for ecosystem structure and function. These results provide a framework for coping with variability in climate projections and assessing climate change impacts on dryland ecosystems.

A Correlational Analysis of Tethered Swimming, Swim Sprint Performance and Dry-land Power Assessments.

PubMed

Loturco, I; Barbosa, A C; Nocentini, R K; Pereira, L A; Kobal, R; Kitamura, K; Abad, C C C; Figueiredo, P; Nakamura, F Y

2016-03-01

Swimmers are often tested on both dry-land and in swimming exercises. The aim of this study was to test the relationships between dry-land, tethered force-time curve parameters and swimming performances in distances up to 200 m. 10 young male high-level swimmers were assessed using the maximal isometric bench-press and quarter-squat, mean propulsive power in jump-squat, squat and countermovement jumps (dry-land assessments), peak force, average force, rate of force development (RFD) and impulse (tethered swimming) and swimming times. Pearson product-moment correlations were calculated among the variables. Peak force and average force were very largely correlated with the 50- and 100-m swimming performances (r=- 0.82 and -0.74, respectively). Average force was very-largely/largely correlated with the 50- and 100-m performances (r=- 0.85 and -0.67, respectively). RFD and impulse were very-largely correlated with the 50-m time (r=- 0.72 and -0.76, respectively). Tethered swimming parameters were largely correlated (r=0.65 to 0.72) with mean propulsive power in jump-squat, squat-jump and countermovement jumps. Finally, mean propulsive power in jump-squat was largely correlated (r=- 0.70) with 50-m performance. Due to the significant correlations between dry-land assessments and tethered/actual swimming, coaches are encouraged to implement strategies able to increase leg power in sprint swimmers. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Impacts of Precipitation Diurnal Timing on Ecosystem Carbon Exchanges in Grasslands: A Synthesis of AmeriFlux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X.; Xu, X.; Tweedie, C. E.

2015-12-01

Drylands have been found playing an important role regulating the seasonality of global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Precipitation is a primary control of ecosystem carbon exchanges in drylands where a large proportion of the annual total rainfall arrives through a small number of episodic precipitation events. While a large number of studies use the concept of "precipitation pulses" to explore the effects of short-term precipitation events on dryland ecosystem function, few have specifically evaluated the importance of the diurnal timing of these events. The primary goal of this study was to determine how the diurnal timing of rainfall events impacts land-atmosphere net ecosystem CO2 exchanges (NEE) and ecosystem respiration in drylands. Our research leverages a substantial and existing long-term database (AmeriFlux) that describes NEE, Reco and meteorological conditions at 11 sites situated in different dryland ecosystems in South West America. All sites employ the eddy covariance technique to measure land-atmosphere the CO2 exchange rates between atmosphere and ecosystem. Data collected at these sites range from 4 to 10 years, totaling up to 73 site-years. We found that episodic precipitation events stimulate not only vegetation photosynthesis but also ecosystem respiration. Specifically, the morning precipitation events decrease photosynthesis function at daytime and increase ecosystem respiration at nighttime; the afternoon precipitation events do not stimulate ecosystem photosynthesis at daytime, while stimulate ecosystem respiration; the night precipitations suppress photosynthesis at daytime, and enhance ecosystem respiration at nighttime.

Climate and Physical Disturbance Effects on the Spectral Signatures of Biological Soil Crusts: Implications for Future Dryland Energy Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, W. A.; Flagg, C.; Painter, T. H.; Okin, G. S.; Belnap, J.; Reed, S.

2014-12-01

Drylands comprise ≈40% of the terrestrial Earth surface and observations suggest they can respond markedly to climate change. A vital component of dryland ecosystems are biological soil crusts (biocrusts) - a network of surface soil lichens, mosses, and cyanobacteria - that perform critical ecosystem functions, such as stabilizing soil and fixing carbon and nitrogen. Yet, our understanding of the role biocrusts play in dryland energy balance remains poor. Changes in climate can rapidly affect biocrust communities and we have long known that biocrusts respond dramatically to physical disturbance, such as human trampling and grazing animals. Associated changes in biocrust cover often result in increased bare soil; creating higher surface reflectance. We used spectral solar reflectance measurements in two manipulative experiments to compare the effects of climate and physical disturbance on biocrusts of the Colorado Plateau We measured reflectance at two heights: at crust surface and 1 m above. The climate disturbance site has four treatments: control, warming (4°C), altered precipitation, and warming plus altered precipitation. The physical disturbance site was trampled by foot annually since 1998. At the climate experiment, the largest change in reflectance was in the altered precipitation treatment (35% increase) at the surface-level, and the smallest difference was in the warmed (17% increase) at the meter-level. Physical disturbance differences were 10% at meter-level and 25% at surface-level. Unexpectedly, these results suggest that, via effects on biocrust communities, climate change could have a larger effect on dryland energy balance relative to physical disturbance, and result in more radiation from drylands returned to the atmosphere. Biocrusts cover large portions of the Earth's surface and, to our knowledge, these are the first data showing climate-induced changes to biocrust reflectance, with negative feedback in the global energy balance.

Local to Global Scale Time Series Analysis of US Dryland Degradation Using Landsat, AVHRR, and MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Ramsey, R. D.; West, N. E.; Kulawardhana, W.; Reeves, M. C.; Mitchell, J. E.; Van Niel, T. G.

2011-12-01

Drylands cover 41% of the terrestrial land surface and annually generate $1 trillion in ecosystem goods and services for 38% of the global population, yet estimates of the global extent of Dryland degradation is uncertain with a range of 10 - 80%. It is currently understood that Drylands exhibit topological complexity including self-organization of parameters of different levels-of-organization, e.g., ecosystem and landscape parameters such as soil and vegetation pattern and structure, that gradually or discontinuously shift to multiple basins of attraction in response to herbivory, fire, and climatic drivers at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Our research has shown that at large geographic scales, contemporaneous time series of 10 to 20 years for response and driving variables across two or more spatial scales is required to replicate and differentiate between the impact of climate and land use activities such as commercial grazing. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major driver of Dryland net primary productivity (NPP), biodiversity, and ecological resilience with a 10-year return interval, thus 20 years of data are required to replicate its impact. Degradation is defined here as a change in physiognomic composition contrary to management goals, a persistent reduction in vegetation response, e.g., NPP, accelerated soil erosion, a decline in soil quality, and changes in landscape configuration and structure that lead to a loss of ecosystem function. Freely available Landsat, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradimeter (MODIS) archives of satellite imagery exist that provide local to global spatial coverage and time series between 1972 to the present from which proxies of land degradation can be derived. This paper presents time series assessments between 1972 and 2011 of US Dryland degradation including early detection of dynamic regime shifts in the Mojave and landscape pattern and erosion state changes in the Intermountain region in response to the "Great North American Drought" in 1988, PDO and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and commercial grazing. Additionally, we will show the discoveries in the last 10-years that US Drylands are "greening" despite the severe Southwestern drought and that commercial livestock are a driver of this response with an annual appropriation of some 58% of NPP.

Theory and Practice in Determining the Long-Term Spatial Productivity of Drylands: A California Blue Oak Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Therrell, M. D.; Emanuel, R. E.

2007-12-01

Herbivory, fire, and climatic events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña have been shown to have proximal and evolutionary effects on the dynamics of Dryland fauna, flora, and soils. However, spatially-explicit historical impacts of these climatic events on Dryland ecosystems is not known. Consequently, this paper has the purpose of presenting the theory and practical application for estimating the historical spatial impacts of these climatic events. We hypothesize that if remotely-sensed vegetation indices (VI) are correlated to historical tree ring data and also to functional ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) as measured by eddy covariance flux towers, then VIs can be used to spatially and temporally distribute GPP and NEP within the species- or community-specific land cover extent over the length of the tree ring record of selected Dryland ecosystems. Secondly, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital terrain model (DTM) data has been used to estimate tree height and in conjuction with plant allometric equations: biomass and standing carbon in various forest ecosystems. Tree height data in relation to tree ring age data and fire history can be used to reconstruct the spatial distribution of savanna demographic age structure, predict standing carbon and thus provide a complementary and independent dataset for comparison to DTMs from Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived GPP spatial maps. We developed a database consisting of a dendrochronology record, SRTM data, globa fre history data, Long term Data Record Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (LTDR AVHRR NDVI, 1981 - 2003), contemporary gridded climate data, National Land Cover Data (NLCD), and short term eddy covariance flux tower data for the California Blue Oak woodland ecosystem to estimate both regional aboveground productivity and past disturbance history relative climate, particularly droughts, for the last 500 years.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

PubMed

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D

2017-07-01

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Adapting forest to climate change in drylands: the Portuguese case-study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Vizinho, André; Serrano, Helena Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

2017-04-01

The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover, decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally, a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. We will discuss and propose a strategy for forests to adapt to climate change scenario in dryland Portugal. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono and by FCT-MEC project PTDC/AAG-GLO/0045/2014.

Revisiting classic water erosion models in drylands: The strong impact of biological soil crusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowker, M.A.; Belnap, J.; Bala, Chaudhary V.; Johnson, N.C.

2008-01-01

Soil erosion and subsequent degradation has been a contributor to societal collapse in the past and is one of the major expressions of desertification in arid regions. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) models soil lost to water erosion as a function of climate erosivity (the degree to which rainfall can result in erosion), topography, soil erodibility, and land use/management. The soil erodibility factor (K) is primarily based upon inherent soil properties (those which change slowly or not at all) such as soil texture and organic matter content, while the cover/management factor (C) is based on several parameters including biological soil crust (BSC) cover. We examined the effect of two more precise indicators of BSC development, chlorophyll a and exopolysaccharides (EPS), upon soil stability, which is closely inversely related to soil loss in an erosion event. To examine the relative influence of these elements of the C factor to the K factor, we conducted our investigation across eight strongly differing soils in the 0.8 million ha Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. We found that within every soil group, chlorophyll a was a moderate to excellent predictor of soil stability (R2 = 0.21-0.75), and consistently better than EPS. Using a simple structural equation model, we explained over half of the variance in soil stability and determined that the direct effect of chlorophyll a was 3?? more important than soil group in determining soil stability. Our results suggest that, holding the intensity of erosive forces constant, the acceleration or reduction of soil erosion in arid landscapes will primarily be an outcome of management practices. This is because the factor which is most influential to soil erosion, BSC development, is also among the most manageable, implying that water erosion in drylands has a solution. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV) HYPERSPECTRAL REMOTE SENSING FOR DRYLAND VEGETATION MONITORING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nancy F. Glenn; Jessica J. Mitchell; Matthew O. Anderson

2012-06-01

UAV-based hyperspectral remote sensing capabilities developed by the Idaho National Lab and Idaho State University, Boise Center Aerospace Lab, were recently tested via demonstration flights that explored the influence of altitude on geometric error, image mosaicking, and dryland vegetation classification. The test flights successfully acquired usable flightline data capable of supporting classifiable composite images. Unsupervised classification results support vegetation management objectives that rely on mapping shrub cover and distribution patterns. Overall, supervised classifications performed poorly despite spectral separability in the image-derived endmember pixels. Future mapping efforts that leverage ground reference data, ultra-high spatial resolution photos and time series analysis shouldmore » be able to effectively distinguish native grasses such as Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda), from invasives such as burr buttercup (Ranunculus testiculatus) and cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum).« less

Nonlocal grazing in patterned ecosystems.

PubMed

Siero, E

2018-01-07

Many ecosystems exhibit gapped, labyrinthine, striped or spotted patterns. Important examples are vegetation patterns in drylands: these patterns are viewed as precursors of a catastrophic transition to a degraded state. A possible source of degradation is overgrazing, but many current spatially extended models include grazing in a local linear way. In this article nonlocal grazing responses are derived, taking into account (1) how many consumers there are (demographic response) (2) where they are (aggregative response) and (3) how much they forage (functional response). Different assumptions lead to different grazing responses, the type of grazing has a large influence on how ecosystems adapt to changing environmental conditions. In dryland simulations the different types of grazing are shown to alter the desertification process driven by decreasing rainfall. A sufficiently strong aggregative response leads to the suppression of vegetation patterns, nuancing their role as generic early warning signals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling ecohydrological dynamics of smallholder strategies for food production in dryland agricultural systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gower, Drew B.; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; McCord, Paul F.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Evans, Tom P.

2016-11-01

In dryland environments, characterized by low and frequently variable rainfall, smallholder farmers must take crop water sensitivity into account along with other characteristics like seed availability and market price when deciding what to plant. In this paper we use the results of surveys conducted among smallholders located near Mount Kenya to identify clusters of farmers devoting different fractions of their land to subsistence and market crops. Additionally, we explore the tradeoffs between water-insensitive but low-value subsistence crops and a water-sensitive but high-value market crop using a numerical model that simulates soil moisture dynamics and crop production over multiple growing seasons. The cluster analysis shows that most farmers prefer to plant either only subsistence crops or only market crops, with a minority choosing to plant substantial fractions of both. The model output suggests that the value a farmer places on a successful growing season, a measure of risk aversion, plays a large role in whether the farmer chooses a subsistence or market crop strategy. Furthermore, access to irrigation, makes market crops more appealing, even to very risk-averse farmers. We then conclude that the observed clustering may result from different levels of risk aversion and access to irrigation.

Climatic sensitivity of dryland soil CO2 fluxes differs dramatically with biological soil crust successional state

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tucker, Colin; Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.

2018-01-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems make up approximately 41% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and are suggested to regulate the trend and interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon (C) sink. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common dryland soil surface communities of bryophytes, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria that bind the soil surface together and that may play an important role in regulating the climatic sensitivity of the dryland C cycle. Major uncertainties exist in our understanding of the interacting effects of changing temperature and moisture on CO2 uptake (photosynthesis) and loss (respiration) from biocrust and sub-crust soil, particularly as related to biocrust successional state. Here, we used a mesocosm approach to assess how biocrust successional states related to climate treatments. We subjected bare soil (Bare), early successional lightly pigmented cyanobacterial biocrust (Early), and late successional darkly pigmented moss-lichen biocrust (Late) to either ambient or + 5°C above ambient soil temperature for 84 days. Under ambient temperatures, Late biocrust mesocosms showed frequent net uptake of CO2, whereas Bare soil, Early biocrust, and warmed Late biocrust mesocosms mostly lost CO2 to the atmosphere. The inhibiting effect of warming on CO2 exchange was a result of accelerated drying of biocrust and soil. We used these data to parameterize, via Bayesian methods, a model of ecosystem CO2 fluxes, and evaluated the model with data from an autochamber CO2 system at our field site on the Colorado Plateau in SE Utah. In the context of the field experiment, the data underscore the negative effect of warming on fluxes both biocrust CO2 uptake and loss—which, because biocrusts are a dominant land cover type in this ecosystem, may extend to ecosystem-scale C cycling.

Society and Ecosystem Carbon Budget through Life Cycle Assessment: Results from Asian Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.

2017-12-01

Land use, land cover changes, and ecosystem-specific management practices are recognized for their roles in mediating the climatic effects on ecosystem structure and function. A major challenge is that our understanding and forecasting of ecosystem functions, such as C fluxes, cannot rely solely on conventional biophysical regulations from the local ecosystem to the global scale. A second challenge lies in quantifying the magnitude of the C fluxes from managed ecosystems and landscapes over the lifetime of the C cycle, and to deduct the various energy inputs during management. Our specific challenge here is to quantify the landscape-scale C footprint of both managed agricultural-forest landscapes and people - the societal input and engagement in ecosystem studies. Using the East Asia Drylands (Chen et al., 2013) and an agricultural watershed in southwestern Michigan as a test bed, the mechanisms (carbon as an example) from both human activities and biophysical changes on ecosystem C dynamics at different temporal and spatial scales are proposed to be explored by modeling total net ecosystem C production (physical and social C fluxes), performing a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment (LCA) on the total C production. Remote sensing technology, available geospatial data, records of management practices, surveys of historical practices, a land surface model, and in situ measurements of C fluxes are all needed to achieve our objectives. Our case study calls for direct involvement of society as both the driver and beneficiary of ecosystem dynamics. Reference Chen, J., Wan, S., Henebry, G., Qi, J., Gutman, G., Sun, G., and Kappas, M. (Eds.) 2013. Dryland East Asia (DEA): Land Dynamics Amid Social And Climate Change. HEP and De Gruyter, 470 pp.

Vegetation and erosion: comments on the linking mechanisms from the perspective of the Australian drylands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkerley, D.

2009-04-01

John Thorne's wide-ranging research included an emphasis on the diverse roles of vegetation in modifying erosion processes under Mediterranean conditions, with primary field studies in Spain. Different global drylands reflect some differences in the nature or strength of the mechanisms linking vegetation and erosion. In Australia, low topographic gradients and plants adapted to water scarcity have facilitated the widespread development of contour-aligned vegetation groves. In these landscapes, the role of individual plants in modifying raindrop impact energy or overland flow erosivity is secondary to the community-level effects of the grove structures. Erosion in common rain events is limited to quite local redistribution of soil materials on metre scales. This highlights one of the unresolved issues that warrants more attention in drylands globally: under what range of rain events does the protective role of individual plants (or of groves) operate, and what is the threshold event size beyond which their effect is swamped by integrated overland flow arriving from upslope? In contrast with, for example, the well-understood role of bankfull flows in river architecture, general principles underlying dryland hillslope and channel responses to events of various magnitudes remain obscure. Clearly, however, there is no single role for plant cover; rather, that role varies with event magnitude and related properties such as the time since the last rain event. An important conclusion is therefore that context is important when evaluating the links between vegetation and erosion. The developing view of overland flow generally, but particularly relevant in drylands where plant cover is sparse, is that the connectedness of runoff flowpaths is a key parameter. It partly determines the extent to which the downslope movement of resources (soil, water, organic matter) is free or constrained, and this conception has the potential to support the formulation of some general models of overland flow behaviour. In such analyses, the role of vascular plants has to be seen as one component of the system that also includes organic litter and non-vascular plants. A gap in understanding here relates to splash dislodgement of soil materials. This is known to depend on the depth of water lying above the mineral soil, being reduced for both shallow and deep water layers, and maximised at depths of a few incident drop diameters. Resolving how vegetation modifies surface water depths, and how splash dislodgement responds, across the spectrum of event sizes, remains a significant research challenge. Australian dryland streams exhibit abundant channel-associated vegetation. This exhibits diverse roles, again depending on context. Trees growing in the channel, together with associated barriers formed from floating woody debris, reduce flow speeds. On the other hand, deflector jams can result in locally intensified erosion of the banks. But the mechanisms linking vegetation and erosion are again complex. For instance, by reducing flow speeds and creating backwater effects, debris barriers promote mud deposition over channel margin sediments. This in turn reduces transmission losses, and sustains peak flow and associated sediment transport capacity further downstream than would otherwise be the case. As for hillslope processes, much remains to be learned about how these various processes play out across the spectrum of event magnitudes. Clearly, therefore, in a time of ongoing environmental change, the informed management of the global drylands requires continued research effort of the kind so well championed by John Thornes.

New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

RZWQM2 Simulations of Alternative Cropping Systems With and Without Summer Crops in the Central Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Integration and synthesis of data accruing from complex alternative crop rotation experiments across locations and climates is a challenge to agriculturists. System simulation models are potential tools to address this challenge. In this study, we simulated three long-term (1991 to 2008) dryland c...

A test of critical thresholds and their indicators in a desertification-prone ecosystem: more resilience than we thought

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Theoretical models predict that dryland ecosystems can cross critical thresholds after which vegetation loss is independent of initial drivers, but experimental data are nonexistent. We used a long-term (13 year) pulse-perturbation experiment featuring heavy grazing and shrub removal to determine i...

Procedures for estimation of the livestock ecological footprint of US drylands

Treesearch

Robert A. Washington-Allen; John E. Mitchell

2008-01-01

The ecological condition and trend of the United States' 3,902,000 of Drylands and the extent to which human management actions contribute to degradation are unknown at the national spatial scale. (Washington-Allen et al. 2006). Our research seeks to develop procedures for determining the impact or ecological footprint of livestock grazing on the productive...

Research achievements and adoption of no-till, dryland cropping in the semi-arid US Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Great Plains region of the United States and Canada is an area of widespread dryland crop production, with wheat being the dominant crop. Precipitation in the region ranges from 300 to 500 mm annually, with the majority of precipitatioCPRLn falling during hot summer months. The prevailing croppi...

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

Treesearch

M. D. Petrie; J. B. Bradford; R. M. Hubbard; W. K. Lauenroth; C. M. Andrews; D. R. Schlaepfer

2017-01-01

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key...

Dryland pea production and water use in responses to tillage, crop rotation, and weed management practice

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Pea has been used to replace fallow and sustain dryland crop yields in arid and semiarid regions, but information to optimize its management is required. We evaluated pea growth, yield, and water use in response to tillage, crop rotation, and weed management practice from 2005 to 2010 in the norther...

Tillage and cropping sequence impacts on nitrogen cycling in dryland farming in eastern Montana, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Information on N cycling in dryland crops and soils as influenced by long-term tillage and cropping sequence is needed to quantify soil N sequestration, mineralization, and N balance to reduce N fertilization rate and N losses through soil processes. We evaluated the 21-yr effects of combinations of...

Climate change predicted to negatively influence surface soil organic matter of dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator of agricultural productivity and overall soil health. Currently, dryland cropping systems of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW) span a large gradient in mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP).These climatic drivers are major determinants o...

Dryland soil chemical properties and crop yields affected by long-term tillage and cropping sequence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Information on the effect of long-term management on soil nutrients and chemical properties is scanty. We examined the 30-yr effect of tillage frequency and cropping sequence combination on dryland soil Olsen-P, K, Ca, Mg, Na, SO4-S, and Zn concentrations, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), and catio...

Projecting avian response to linked changes in groundwater and riparian floodplain vegetation along a dryland river: A scenario analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arriana, Brand L.; Stromberg, J.C.; Goodrich, D.C.; Dixon, M.D.; Lansey, K.; Kang, D.; Brookshire, D.S.; Cerasale, D.J.

2011-01-01

Groundwater is a key driver of riparian condition on dryland rivers but is in high demand for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses. Approaches are needed to guide decisions that balance human water needs while conserving riparian ecosystems. We developed a space-for-time substitution model that links groundwater change scenarios implemented within a Decision Support System (DSS) with proportions of floodplain vegetation types and abundances of breeding and migratory birds along the upper San Pedro River, AZ, USA. We investigated nine scenarios ranging from groundwater depletion to recharge. In groundwater decline scenarios, relative proportions of tall-canopied obligate phreatophytes (Populus/Salix, cottonwood/willow) on the floodplain progressively decline, and shrubbier species less dependent on permanent water sources (e.g. Tamarix spp., saltcedar) increase. These scenarios result in broad shifts in the composition of the breeding bird community, with canopy-nesting and water-obligate birds declining but midstory nesting birds increasing in abundance as groundwater declines. For the most extreme draw-down scenario where all reaches undergo groundwater declines, models project that only 10% of the upper San Pedro floodplain would be comprised of cottonwood/willow (73% saltcedar and 18% mesquite), and abundances of canopy-nesting, water-obligate, and spring migrant birds would decline 48%, 72%, and 40%, respectively. Groundwater recharge scenarios were associated with increases in canopy-nesting birds particularly given the extreme recharge scenario (all reaches regain shallow water tables and perennial streamflow). Model outputs serve to assess the sensitivity of biotic groups to potential changes in groundwater and thus to rank scenarios based on their expected ecological impacts. ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, Willliam K.

2016-01-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen.

Sorghum production under future climate in the Southwestern USA: model projections of yield, greenhouse gas emissions and soil C fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.

2016-12-01

Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for irrigated sorghum, and strong control of N rate on N2O emissions suggests that a dryland sorghum bioproduct system could be environmentally sustainable in the Southwestern US with effective N management, and warrants further investigation in field trials.

Current Warm-Up Practices and Contemporary Issues Faced by Elite Swimming Coaches.

PubMed

McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Raglin, John S; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben

2016-12-01

McGowan, CJ, Pyne, DB, Raglin, JS, Thompson, KG, and Rattray, B. Current warm-up practices and contemporary issues faced by elite swimming coaches. J Strength Cond Res 30(12): 3471-3480, 2016-A better understanding of current swimming warm-up strategies is needed to improve their effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to describe current precompetition warm-up practices and identify contemporary issues faced by elite swimming coaches during competition. Forty-six state-international level swimming coaches provided information through a questionnaire on their prescription of volume, intensity, and recovery within their pool and dryland-based competition warm-ups, and challenges faced during the final stages of event preparation. Coaches identified four key objectives of the precompetition warm-up: physiological (elevate body temperature and increase muscle activation), kinesthetic (tactile preparation, increase "feel" of the water), tactical (race-pace rehearsal), and mental (improve focus, reduce anxiety). Pool warm-up volume ranged from ∼1300 to 2100 m, beginning with 400-1000 m of continuous, low-intensity (∼50-70% of perceived maximal exertion) swimming, followed by 200-600 m of stroke drills and 1-2 sets (100-400 m in length) of increasing intensity (∼60-90%) swimming, concluding with 3-4 race or near race-pace efforts (25-100 m; ∼90-100%) and 100-400 m easy swimming. Dryland-based warm-up exercises, involving stretch cords and skipping, were also commonly prescribed. Coaches preferred swimmers complete their warm-up 20-30 minutes before race start. Lengthy marshalling periods (15-20+ minutes) and the time required to don racing suits (>10 minutes) were identified as complicating issues. Coaches believed that the pool warm-up affords athletes the opportunity to gain a tactile feel for the water and surrounding pool environment. The combination of dryland-based activation exercises followed by pool-based warm-up routines seems to be the preferred approach taken by elite swimming coaches preparing their athletes for competition.

A land-potential knowledge system (LandPKS) based on local and scientific knowledge of land productivity and resilience

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Economic assessment of land use change in drylands depends on understanding potential productivity, degradation resistance and resilience, all of which vary widely and are often ignored. Rapidly increasing demand, together with new technologies, migration and global capital mobility are driving dram...

Assessing Nitrogen Status of Dryland Wheat Using the Canopy Chlorophyll Content Index

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ground-based, active light sensing relies upon the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for assessing crop nitrogen (N) response and applying N fertilizer. However, NDVI may not work well in semiarid environments where biomass and yields depend upon plant water. This study evaluated the C...

Discovery of fairy circles in Australia supports self-organization theory

PubMed Central

Getzin, Stephan; Yizhaq, Hezi; Bell, Bronwyn; Erickson, Todd E.; Postle, Anthony C.; Katra, Itzhak; Tzuk, Omer; Zelnik, Yuval R.; Wiegand, Kerstin; Wiegand, Thorsten; Meron, Ehud

2016-01-01

Vegetation gap patterns in arid grasslands, such as the “fairy circles” of Namibia, are one of nature’s greatest mysteries and subject to a lively debate on their origin. They are characterized by small-scale hexagonal ordering of circular bare-soil gaps that persists uniformly in the landscape scale to form a homogeneous distribution. Pattern-formation theory predicts that such highly ordered gap patterns should be found also in other water-limited systems across the globe, even if the mechanisms of their formation are different. Here we report that so far unknown fairy circles with the same spatial structure exist 10,000 km away from Namibia in the remote outback of Australia. Combining fieldwork, remote sensing, spatial pattern analysis, and process-based mathematical modeling, we demonstrate that these patterns emerge by self-organization, with no correlation with termite activity; the driving mechanism is a positive biomass–water feedback associated with water runoff and biomass-dependent infiltration rates. The remarkable match between the patterns of Australian and Namibian fairy circles and model results indicate that both patterns emerge from a nonuniform stationary instability, supporting a central universality principle of pattern-formation theory. Applied to the context of dryland vegetation, this principle predicts that different systems that go through the same instability type will show similar vegetation patterns even if the feedback mechanisms and resulting soil–water distributions are different, as we indeed found by comparing the Australian and the Namibian fairy-circle ecosystems. These results suggest that biomass–water feedbacks and resultant vegetation gap patterns are likely more common in remote drylands than is currently known. PMID:26976567

Divergent ecological effects of oceanographic anomalies on terrestrial ecosystems of the Mexican Pacific coast

PubMed Central

Caso, Margarita; González-Abraham, Charlotte; Ezcurra, Exequiel

2007-01-01

Precipitation pulses are essential for the regeneration of drylands and have been shown to be related to oceanographic anomalies. However, whereas some studies report increased precipitation in drylands in northern Mexico during El Niño years, others report increased drought in the southern drylands. To elucidate the effect of oceanographic/atmospheric anomalies on moisture pulses along the whole Pacific coast of Mexico, we correlated the average Southern Oscillation Index values with total annual precipitation for 117 weather stations. We also analyzed this relationship for three separate rainfall signals: winter-spring, summer monsoon, and fall precipitation. The results showed a distinct but divergent seasonal pattern: El Niño events tend to bring increased rainfall in the Mexican northwest but tend to increase aridity in the ecosystems of the southern tropical Pacific slope. The analysis for the separated rainfall seasons showed that El Niño conditions produce a marked increase in winter rainfall above 22° latitude, whereas La Niña conditions tend to produce an increase in the summer monsoon-type rainfall that predominates in the tropical south. Because these dryland ecosystems are dependent on rainfall pulses for their renewal, understanding the complex effect of ocean conditions may be critical for their management in the future. Restoration ecology, grazing regimes, carrying capacities, fire risks, and continental runoff into the oceans could be predicted from oceanographic conditions. Monitoring the coupled atmosphere–ocean system may prove to be important in managing and mitigating the effects of large-scale climatic change on coastal drylands in the future. PMID:17563355

Phenological response of an Arizona dryland forest to short-term climatic extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, Jessica; de Beurs, Kirsten; Wynne, Randolph

2015-01-01

Baseline information about dryland forest phenology is necessary to accurately anticipate future ecosystem shifts. The overarching goal of our study was to investigate the variability of vegetation phenology across a dryland forest landscape in response to climate alterations. We analyzed the influence of site characteristics and climatic conditions on the phenological patterns of an Arizona, USA, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest during a five-year period (2005 to 2009) that encompassed extreme wet and dry precipitation regimes. We assembled 80 synthetic Landsat images by applying the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion method (STARFM) to 500 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. We tested relationships between site characteristics and the timing of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess the effect of climatic stress on the green-up of individual pixels during or after the summer monsoon. Our results show that drought-induced stress led to a fragmented phenological response that was highly dependent on microsite parameters, as both the spatial autocorrelation of peak timing and the number of significant site variables increased during the drought year. Pixels at lower elevations and with higher proportions of herbaceous vegetation were more likely to exhibit dynamic responses to changes in precipitation conditions. Our study demonstrates the complexity of responses within dryland forest ecosystems and highlights the need for standardized monitoring of phenology trends in these areas. The spatial and temporal variability of phenological signals may provide a quantitative solution to the problem of how to evaluate dryland land surface trends across time.

The Patterns and Drivers of Bacterial and Fungal β-Diversity in a Typical Dryland Ecosystem of Northwest China.

PubMed

Wang, Jianming; Zhang, Tianhan; Li, Liping; Li, Jingwen; Feng, Yiming; Lu, Qi

2017-01-01

Dryland ecosystems cover more than 30% of the terrestrial area of China, while processes that shape the biogeographic patterns of bacterial and fungal β-diversity have rarely been evaluated synchronously. To compare the biogeographic patterns and its drivers of bacterial and fungal β-diversity, we collected 62 soil samples from a typical dryland region of northwest China. We assessed bacterial and fungal communities by sequencing bacterial 16S rRNA gene and fungal ITS data. Meanwhile, the β-diversity was decomposed into two components: species replacement (species turnover) and nestedness to further explore the bacterial and fungal β-diversity patterns and its causes. The results show that both bacterial and fungal β-diversity were derived almost entirely from species turnover rather than from species nestedness. Distance-decay relationships confirmed that the geographic patterns of bacterial and fungal β-diversity were significantly different. Environmental factors had the dominant influence on both the bacterial and fungal β-diversity and species turnover, however, the role of geographic distance varied across bacterial and fungal communities. Furthermore, both bacterial and fungal nestedness did not significantly respond to the environmental and geographic distance. Our findings suggest that the different response of bacterial and fungal species turnover to dispersal limitation and other, unknown processes may result in different biogeographic patterns of bacterial and fungal β-diversity in the drylands of northwest China. Together, we highlight that the drivers of β-diversity patterns vary between bacterial and fungal communities, and microbial β-diversity are driven by multiple factors in the drylands of northwest China.

A House Full of Trap Doors. Identifying barriers to resilient drylands in the toolbox of pastoral development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krätli, Saverio; Kaufmann, Brigitte; Roba, Hassan; Hiernaux, Pierre; Li, Wenjun; Easdale, Marcos H.; Huelsebusch, Christian

2016-04-01

The theoretical understanding of drylands and pastoral systems has long undergone a U-turn from the initial perspective rooted in classical ecology. The shift has hinged on the way to represent asymmetric variability, from a disturbance in an ecosystem that naturally tends towards uniformity and stability, to a constitutive part of a dynamic ecosystem. Operationalising the new reversed perspective, including the need to update the methodological infrastructure to plan around drylands and pastoral development, remains a challenge. Underlying assumptions about stability and uniformity, that are a legacy of equilibrium thinking, remain embedded in the toolbox of pastoral development, starting from the technical language to talk about the subject. This effectively gets in the way of operationalizing state of the art understanding of pastoral systems and the drylands. Unless these barriers are identified, unpacked and managed, even the present calls for increasing the rigour and intensity of data collection - for example as part of the ongoing global process to revise and improve agricultural data - cannot deliver a realistic representation of pastoral systems in statistics and policy making. This contribution presents the case for understanding variability as an asset, and provides a range of examples of methodological barriers, including classifications of livestock systems, scale of observation, key parameters in animal production, indicators in the measurement of ecological efficiency, concepts of ecological fragility, natural resources, and pastoral risk. The need to update this legacy is a pressing challenge for policy makers concerned with both modernisation and resilience in the drylands.

Evapotranspiration variability and its association with vegetation dynamics in the Nile Basin, 2002–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alemu, Henok; Senay, Gabriel B.; Kaptue, Armel T.; Kovalskyy, Valeriy

2014-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital component in land-atmosphere interactions. In drylands, over 90% of annual rainfall evaporates. The Nile Basin in Africa is about 42% dryland in a region experiencing rapid population growth and development. The relationship of ET with climate, vegetation and land cover in the basin during 2002–2011 is analyzed using thermal-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational (SSEBop) ET, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based MODIS Terrestrial (MOD16) ET, MODIS-derived NDVI as a proxy for vegetation productivity and rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Interannual variability and trends are analyzed using established statistical methods. Analysis based on thermal-based ET revealed that >50% of the study area exhibited negative ET anomalies for 7 years (2009, driest), while >60% exhibited positive ET anomalies for 3 years (2007, wettest). NDVI-based monthly ET correlated strongly (r > 0.77) with vegetation than thermal-based ET (0.52 < r < 0.73) at p < 0.001. Climate-zone averaged thermal-based ET anomalies positively correlated (r = 0.6, p < 0.05) with rainfall in 4 of the 9 investigated climate zones. Thermal-based and NDVI-based ET estimates revealed minor discrepancies over rainfed croplands (60 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET), but a significant divergence over wetlands (440 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET). Only 5% of the study area exhibited statistically significant trends in ET.

Impacts of Global Change on Water Resources in Dryland East Asia

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Xiaoming Feng; Jingfeng Xiao; Alex Shiklomanov; Shengping Wang; Zhiqiang Zhang; Nan Lu; Shuai Wang; Liding Chen; Bojie Fu; Yaning Chen; Jiquan Chen

2013-01-01

The vast Dryland East Asia (DEA) area consists of several large geographic regions including the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loess Plateau, and Mongolia Plateau. T he region is of great importance to the functioning of the earth system under a changing climate. In the past three decades, due to the unprecedented land use/land cover change, urbanization, industrialization...

Nitrogen fertilization effect on dryland soil water balance and winter wheat yield in the Chinese Loess Plateau

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Continuous N fertilization to dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) for a long period may have detrimental effect on grain yield due to high water consumption and soil acidity development. We evaluated the effect of five N fertilization rates (0, 45, 90, 135, and 180 kg N ha-1) on soil water b...

Landform and vegetation patch type moderate the effects of grazing-induced disturbance on carbon and nitrogen pools in a semi-arid woodland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background and aims Dryland soil organic carbon (C) pools account for a large portion of soil C globally, but their response to livestock grazing has been difficult to generalize. We hypothesized that some difficulty generalizing was due to spatial heterogeneity in dryland systems. We examined the i...

Recovery of soil organic matter on reclaimed and unreclaimed oil and gas wellpads in the Sagebrush Steppe of the western U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Worldwide, dryland soils store 10-15% of all the soil organic matter (SOM) to 1m. Drylands are increasingly threatened by agriculture, overgrazing, mining, and energy development. To prevent loss of carbon from these soils, it is important to understand, first, how disturbances impact SOM and second...

Comparison of net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by management practices in two dryland cropping sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Little is known about the effect of management practices on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dryland cropping systems. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of a combinat...

Global warming likely reduces crop yield and water availability of the dryland cropping systems in the U.S. central Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We investigated impacts of GCM-projected climate change on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow and wheat-corn-fallow in the Central Great Plains (Akron in Colorado, USA) using the CERES 4.0 crop modules in RZWQM2. The climate change scenarios for CO2, temperature, and precipitation were produced ...

A hybrid agent-based approach for modeling microbiological systems.

PubMed

Guo, Zaiyi; Sloot, Peter M A; Tay, Joc Cing

2008-11-21

Models for systems biology commonly adopt Differential Equations or Agent-Based modeling approaches for simulating the processes as a whole. Models based on differential equations presuppose phenomenological intracellular behavioral mechanisms, while models based on Multi-Agent approach often use directly translated, and quantitatively less precise if-then logical rule constructs. We propose an extendible systems model based on a hybrid agent-based approach where biological cells are modeled as individuals (agents) while molecules are represented by quantities. This hybridization in entity representation entails a combined modeling strategy with agent-based behavioral rules and differential equations, thereby balancing the requirements of extendible model granularity with computational tractability. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with models of chemotaxis involving an assay of 10(3) cells and 1.2x10(6) molecules. The model produces cell migration patterns that are comparable to laboratory observations.

Overview of the Bushland Evapotranspiration and Agricultural Remote sensing EXperiment 2008 (BEAREX08): A field experiment evaluating methods for quantifying ET at multiple scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evett, Steven R.; Kustas, William P.; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Anderson, Martha C.; Prueger, John H.; Howell, Terry A.

2012-12-01

In 2008, scientists from seven federal and state institutions worked together to investigate temporal and spatial variations of evapotranspiration (ET) and surface energy balance in a semi-arid irrigated and dryland agricultural region of the Southern High Plains in the Texas Panhandle. This Bushland Evapotranspiration and Agricultural Remote sensing EXperiment 2008 (BEAREX08) involved determination of micrometeorological fluxes (surface energy balance) in four weighing lysimeter fields (each 4.7 ha) containing irrigated and dryland cotton and in nearby bare soil, wheat stubble and rangeland fields using nine eddy covariance stations, three large aperture scintillometers, and three Bowen ratio systems. In coordination with satellite overpasses, flux and remote sensing aircraft flew transects over the surrounding fields and region encompassing an area contributing fluxes from 10 to 30 km upwind of the USDA-ARS lysimeter site. Tethered balloon soundings were conducted over the irrigated fields to investigate the effect of advection on local boundary layer development. Local ET was measured using four large weighing lysimeters, while field scale estimates were made by soil water balance with a network of neutron probe profile water sites and from the stationary flux systems. Aircraft and satellite imagery were obtained at different spatial and temporal resolutions. Plot-scale experiments dealt with row orientation and crop height effects on spatial and temporal patterns of soil surface temperature, soil water content, soil heat flux, evaporation from soil in the interrow, plant transpiration and canopy and soil radiation fluxes. The BEAREX08 field experiment was unique in its assessment of ET fluxes over a broad range in spatial scales; comparing direct and indirect methods at local scales with remote sensing based methods and models using aircraft and satellite imagery at local to regional scales, and comparing mass balance-based ET ground truth with eddy covariance and remote sensing-based methods. Here we present an overview of the experiment and a summary of preliminary findings described in this special issue of AWR. Our understanding of the role of advection in the measurement and modeling of ET is advanced by these papers integrating measurements and model estimates.

The LUE data model for representation of agents and fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Kor; Schmitz, Oliver; Karssenberg, Derek

2017-04-01

Traditionally, agents-based and field-based modelling environments use different data models to represent the state of information they manipulate. In agent-based modelling, involving the representation of phenomena as objects bounded in space and time, agents are often represented by classes, each of which represents a particular kind of agent and all its properties. Such classes can be used to represent entities like people, birds, cars and countries. In field-based modelling, involving the representation of the environment as continuous fields, fields are often represented by a discretization of space, using multidimensional arrays, each storing mostly a single attribute. Such arrays can be used to represent the elevation of the land-surface, the pH of the soil, or the population density in an area, for example. Representing a population of agents by class instances grouped in collections is an intuitive way of organizing information. A drawback, though, is that models in which class instances grouping properties are stored in collections are less efficient (execute slower) than models in which collections of properties are grouped. The field representation, on the other hand, is convenient for the efficient execution of models. Another drawback is that, because the data models used are so different, integrating agent-based and field-based models becomes difficult, since the model builder has to deal with multiple concepts, and often multiple modelling environments. With the development of the LUE data model [1] we aim at representing agents and fields within a single paradigm, by combining the advantages of the data models used in agent-based and field-based data modelling. This removes the barrier for writing integrated agent-based and field-based models. The resulting data model is intuitive to use and allows for efficient execution of models. LUE is both a high-level conceptual data model and a low-level physical data model. The LUE conceptual data model is a generalization of the data models used in agent-based and field-based modelling. The LUE physical data model [2] is an implementation of the LUE conceptual data model in HDF5. In our presentation we will provide details of our approach to organizing information about agents and fields. We will show examples of agent and field data represented by the conceptual and physical data model. References: [1] de Bakker, M.P., de Jong, K., Schmitz, O., Karssenberg, D., 2016. Design and demonstration of a data model to integrate agent-based and field-based modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.016 [2] de Jong, K., 2017. LUE source code. https://github.com/pcraster/lue

Legacy effects in linked ecological-soil-geomorphic systems of drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monger, Curtis; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Goldfus, Haim; Meir, Isaac A.; Poch, Rosa M.; Throop, Heather L.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2015-01-01

A legacy effect refers to the impacts that previous conditions have on current processes or properties. Legacies have been recognized by many disciplines, from physiology and ecology to anthropology and geology. Within the context of climatic change, ecological legacies in drylands (eg vegetative patterns) result from feedbacks between biotic, soil, and geomorphic processes that operate at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Legacy effects depend on (1) the magnitude of the original phenomenon, (2) the time since the occurrence of the phenomenon, and (3) the sensitivity of the ecological–soil–geomorphic system to change. Here we present a conceptual framework for legacy effects at short-term (days to months), medium-term (years to decades), and long-term (centuries to millennia) timescales, which reveals the ubiquity of such effects in drylands across research disciplines.

The response of arid soil communities to climate change: Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steven, Blaire; McHugh, Theresa Ann; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems cover approximately 40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and are present on each of the planet’s continents [1]. Drylands are characterized by their aridity, but there is substantial geographic, edaphic, and climatic variability among these vast ecosystems, and these differences underscore substantial variation in dryland soil microbial communities, as well as in the future climates predicted among arid and semiarid systems globally. Furthermore, arid ecosystems are commonly patchy at a variety of spatial scales [2,3]. Vascular plants are widely interspersed in drylands and bare soil, or soil that is covered with biological soil crusts, fill these spaces. The variability acts to further enhance spatial heterogeneity, as these different zones within dryland ecosystems differ in characteristics such as water retention, albedo, and nutrient cycling [4–6]. Importantly, the various soil patches of an arid landscape may be differentially sensitive to climate change. Soil communities are only active when enough moisture is available, and drylands show large spatial variability in soil moisture, with potentially long dry periods followed by pulses of moisture. The pulse dynamics associated with this wetting and drying affect the composition, structure, and function of dryland soil communities, and integrate biotic and abiotic processes via pulse-driven exchanges, interactions, transitions, and transfers. Climate change will likely alter the size, frequency, and intensity of future precipitation pulses, as well as influence non-rainfall sources of soil moisture, and aridland ecosystems are known to be highly sensitive to such climate variability. Despite great heterogeneity, arid ecosystems are united by a key parameter: a limitation in water availability. This characteristic may help to uncover unifying aspects of dryland soil responses to global change. The dryness of an ecosystem can be described by its aridity index (AI). Several AIs have been proposed, but the most widely used metrics determine the difference between average precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, where evapotranspiration is the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration, both of which move water from the ecosystem to the atmosphere [7–9]. Because evapotranspiration can be affected by various environmental factors such as temperature and incident radiation (Fig. 10.1), regions that receive the same average precipitation may have significantly different AI values [10,11]. Multiple studies have documented that mean annual precipitation, and thus AI, is highly correlated with biological diversity and net primary productivity [12–15]. Accordingly, AI is considered to be a central regulator of the diversity, structure, and productivity of an ecosystem, playing an especially influential role in arid ecosystems. Thus, the climate parameters that drive alterations in the AI of a region are likely to play an disproportionate role in shaping the response of arid soil communities to a changing climate. In this chapter we consider climate parameters that have been shown to be altered through climate change, with a focus on how these parameters are likely to affect dryland soil communities, including microorganisms and invertebrates. In particular, our goal is to highlight dryland soil community structure and function in the context of climate change, and we will focus on community relationships with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (a primary driver of climate change), temperature, and sources of soil moisture.

Dryland pasture and crop conditions as seen by HCMM. [Washita River watershed, Oklahoma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenthal, W. D.; Harlan, J. C.; Blanchard, B. J. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

Heat capacity mapping mission data were obtained for use in enhancing estimates of soil moisture content. Day/day thermal IR difference between data from August 31 and October 17 were analyzed. Atmospheric correction on HCMM pass dates using the RADTRA model were calculated. Differences between corrections using lake temperatures and calculated temperatures were small.

Simulating dryland water availability and spring wheat production under various management practices in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural system models are useful tools to synthesize field experimental data and to extrapolate the results to longer periods of weather and other cropping systems. The objectives of this study were: 1) to quantify the effects of planting date, seeding rate, and tillage on spring wheat producti...

The Impact of Livestock Grazing on US Rangeland Productive Capacity from 1981 to 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Kulawardhana, R. W.; Reeves, M. C.; Mitchell, J. E.

2010-12-01

Humans have appropriated an estimated 20% of global net primary productivity (NPP) and 38% of this population is dependant on the $900 billion yr-1 in ecosystem services from drylands that cover 41% of the terrestrial surface. Commercial and subsistence livestock (cattle, sheep, and goats) grazing is embedded in this appropriation and has been implicated in dryland degradation. However, the extent of dryland degradation is unknown with estimates ranging from 10 - 80%. As a solution to this problem, we derived rangeland above-ground biomass or the forage available for grazing from a 1981 - 2009 time-series of 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP and 8-km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (AVHRR-GIMMS) annual summed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. We derived the forage required by livestock (cattle, sheep, and goats) at the county and state spatial scales from annual agricultural census records that were collected by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) from 1981 - 2009. We found that in 2002 US rangelands covered some 257 million ha and that grazing livestock reached 216 million tons of biomass appropriated though only an estimated 149 million tons were available in the US. Consequently, the percentage US rangeland impacted by livestock appropriation of NPP (distributed at the state spatial scale) was 19%. This hotspot was primarily located in southwestern Arizona.

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems.

PubMed

Hoover, David L; Duniway, Michael C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-12-01

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3 shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoover, David L.; Duniway, Michael C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

A Systematic Review of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Applications in the Higher Education Domain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gu, X.; Blackmore, K. L.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the results of a systematic review of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) applications in the higher education (HE) domain. Agent-based modelling is a "bottom-up" modelling paradigm in which system-level behaviour (macro) is modelled through the behaviour of individual local-level agent interactions (micro).…

Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromek, Katherine Emily

A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Lawley, Mark A.; Siscovick, David S.; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A.

2016-01-01

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions. PMID:27236380

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Lawley, Mark A; Siscovick, David S; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A

2016-05-26

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions.

A dryland ecologist’s mid-career retrospective on LTER and the science-management interface

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

My association with the LTER Program has encouraged a multidisciplinary scientific approach emphasizing broad spatial scales and site-based knowledge. It also provides a solid basis from which to link science and management. In my position as a federal research scientist, I do not teach university c...

Nitrogen balance in response to dryland crop rotations and cultural practices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrogen balance provides a measure of agroecosystem performance and environmental sustainability by taking into accounts of N inputs and outputs and N retention in the soil. The objective of this study was to evaluate N balance based on N inputs and outputs and soil N sequestration after 7 yr in re...

Manipulation of soil microbes using higher biomass cropping systems to sustain soil health in cotton-based agroecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The semiarid Texas High Plains produces ~30% of U.S. cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Agricultural production, however, is experiencing a transition from irrigated to dryland crop production due to reductions in water availability from the Ogallala aquifer. Additional challenges are imposed by extrem...

Subterranean ventilation of allochthonous CO2 governs net CO2 exchange in a semiarid Mediterranean grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent research highlights the important role of (semi-) arid ecosystems in the global carbon (C) cycle. However, detailed process based investigations are still necessary in order to fully understand how drylands behave and to determine the main factors currently affecting their C balance with the ...

Microbial Nursery Production of High-Quality Biological Soil Crust Biomass for Restoration of Degraded Dryland Soils.

PubMed

Velasco Ayuso, Sergio; Giraldo Silva, Ana; Nelson, Corey; Barger, Nichole N; Garcia-Pichel, Ferran

2017-02-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are slow-growing, phototroph-based microbial assemblages that develop on the topsoils of drylands. Biocrusts help maintain soil fertility and reduce erosion. Because their loss through human activities has negative ecological and environmental health consequences, biocrust restoration is of interest. Active soil inoculation with biocrust microorganisms can be an important tool in this endeavor. We present a culture-independent, two-step process to grow multispecies biocrusts in open greenhouse nursery facilities, based on the inoculation of local soils with local biocrust remnants and incubation under seminatural conditions that maintain the essence of the habitat but lessen its harshness. In each of four U.S. Southwest sites, we tested and deployed combinations of factors that maximized growth (gauged as chlorophyll a content) while minimizing microbial community shifts (assessed by 16S rRNA sequencing and bioinformatics), particularly for crust-forming cyanobacteria. Generally, doubling the frequency of natural wetting events, a 60% reduction in sunlight, and inoculation by slurry were optimal. Nutrient addition effects were site specific. In 4 months, our approach yielded crusts of high inoculum quality reared on local soil exposed to locally matched climates, acclimated to desiccation, and containing communities minimally shifted in composition from local ones. Our inoculum contained abundant crust-forming cyanobacteria and no significant numbers of allochthonous phototrophs, and it was sufficient to treat ca. 6,000 m 2 of degraded dryland soils at 1 to 5% of the typical crust biomass concentration, having started from a natural crust remnant as small as 6 to 30 cm 2 IMPORTANCE: Soil surface crusts can protect dryland soils from erosion, but they are often negatively impacted by human activities. Their degradation causes a loss of fertility, increased production of fugitive dust and intensity of dust storms with associated traffic problems, and provokes general public health hazards. Our results constitute an advance in the quest to actively restore biological soil covers by providing a means to obtain high-quality inoculum within a reasonable time (a few months), thereby allowing land managers to recover essential, but damaged, ecosystem services in a sustainable, self-perpetuating way as provided by biocrust communities. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Dryland anabranching river morphodynamics: Río Capilla, Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiaguang; Bristow, Charlie S.; Luthi, Stefan M.; Donselaar, Marinus E.

2015-12-01

The dryland anabranching river Río Capilla is characterized by nonvegetated and vegetated reaches with prominent channel morphology. To identify the morphodynamics of such dryland anabranching systems and their controls, we investigated the Río Capilla of the southern Altiplano Plateau using high-resolution satellite imagery and field measurements. Comparison of high-resolution satellite data reveals that erosion exceeds deposition for the main channel, accompanied by changes in channel planform, such as meander and channel morphology. On-site surveys combined with high-precision GPS and high-resolution satellite imagery show that channels are characterized by shallowness and poor development of levees. The study area of the Río Capilla is divided into two zones of different slopes: zone 1 with a high slope and zone 2 with a low slope. Zone 1 has a relatively straight main channel with few anabranches and grass-covered banks that are stable despite the high gradient; whereas zone 2 is typified by more anabranches with nonvegetated banks, and the main channel experiences prominent bank accretion and erosion. Excavations show that point-bar deposits are fine-sand-dominated in two reaches and that river banks primarily consist of silt and clay. The limited vegetation cover and abundance of desiccation cracks and macropores make the river bank more erodible leading to pronounced lateral migration in this low-gradient dryland river system. Shallow channels and poor development of levees in combination with in-channel accretionary benches result in frequent overbank flooding, which results in a high density of crevasse splays over unconsolidated river banks and accretionary benches. Connection of headcuts and crevasse channels together with lateral migration and chute channels and reactivation of partially abandoned meanders produces an anabranching pattern in such dryland river systems.

Effects of dry-land vs. in-water specific strength training on professional male water polo players' performance.

PubMed

de Villarreal, Eduardo Sáez; Suarez-Arrones, Luis; Requena, Bernardo; Haff, G Gregory; Ramos-Veliz, Rafael

2014-11-01

We compared the effects of 6-week dry-land and in-water specific strength training combined with a water polo (WP) program on 7 sport-specific performance parameters. Nineteen professional players were randomly assigned to 2 groups: in-water strength group (WSG) (in-water training only) and dry-land strength group (LSG). The program included 3 weekly strength training sessions and 5 days of WP training per week for 6 weeks during the preseason. Ten-meter T-agility test, 20-m maximal sprint swim, maximal dynamic strength (1 repetition maximum), bench press (BP) and full squat (FS), in-water boost, countermovement jump (CMJ), and WP throwing speed were measured. Significant improvements (p ≤ 0.05) were found in the experimental groups in some variables: CMJ in the LSG and WSG (2.35 cm, 9.07%, effect size [ES] = 0.89; and 2.6 cm, 7.6%, ES = 0.83, respectively), in-water boost increased in the WSG group (4.1 cm; 11.48%; ES = 0.70), and FS and BP increased (p ≤ 0.05) only in the LSG group (12.1 kg; 11.27%; ES = 1.15 and 8.3 kg; 9.55%; ES = 1.30, respectively). There was a decrease of performance in agility test (-0.55 seconds; 5.60%; ES = 0.74). Both dry-land and in-water specific strength training and high-intensity training in these male WP players produced medial to large effects on most WP-specific performance parameters. Therefore, we propose modifications to current training methodology for WP players in preseason to include both the training programs (dry-land and in-water specific strength training and high-intensity training) for athlete preparation in this sport.

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snijders, Tom A. B.; Steglich, Christian E. G.

2015-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of…

Microbial colonization and controls in dryland systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Drylands constitute the most extensive terrestrial biome, covering more than one-third of the Earth's continental surface. In these environments, stress limits animal and plant life, so life forms that can survive desiccation and then resume growth following subsequent wetting assume the foremost role in ecosystem processes. In this Review, we describe how these organisms assemble in unique soil- and rock-surface communities to form a thin veneer of mostly microbial biomass across hot and cold deserts. These communities mediate inputs and outputs of gases, nutrients and water from desert surfaces, as well as regulating weathering, soil stability, and hydrological and nutrient cycles. The magnitude of regional and global desert-related environmental impacts is affected by these surface communities; here, we also discuss the challenges for incorporating the consideration of these communities and their effects into the management of dryland resources.

AGENT-BASED MODELS IN EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH*

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth; Atwell, Jon

2014-01-01

Agent-based modeling has become increasingly popular in recent years, but there is still no codified set of recommendations or practices for how to use these models within a program of empirical research. This article provides ideas and practical guidelines drawn from sociology, biology, computer science, epidemiology, and statistics. We first discuss the motivations for using agent-based models in both basic science and policy-oriented social research. Next, we provide an overview of methods and strategies for incorporating data on behavior and populations into agent-based models, and review techniques for validating and testing the sensitivity of agent-based models. We close with suggested directions for future research. PMID:25983351

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to <2% after only one growing season, whereas increased temperature had no effect. Laboratory measurements identified a physiological mechanism behind the mortality: small precipitation events caused a negative moss carbon balance, whereas larger events maintained net carbon uptake. Multiple metrics of nitrogen cycling were notably different with moss mortality and had significant implications for soil fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

Species Richness Patterns and Water-Energy Dynamics in the Drylands of Northwest China

PubMed Central

Zerbe, Stefan; Abdusalih, Nurbay; Tang, Zhiyao; Ma, Ming; Yin, Linke; Mohammat, Anwar; Han, Wenxuan; Fang, Jingyun

2013-01-01

Dryland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climatic and land-use changes, while the mechanisms underlying patterns of dryland species richness are still elusive. With distributions of 3637 native vascular plants, 154 mammals, and 425 birds in Xinjiang, China, we tested the water-energy dynamics hypothesis for species richness patterns in Central Asian drylands. Our results supported the water-energy dynamics hypothesis. We found that species richness of all three groups was a hump-shaped function of energy availability, but a linear function of water availability. We further found that water availability had stronger effects on plant richness, but weaker effects on vertebrate richness than energy availability. We conducted piecewise linear regressions to detect the breakpoints in the relationship between species richness and potential evapotranspiration which divided Xinjiang into low and high energy regions. The concordance between mammal and plant richness was stronger in high than in low energy regions, which was opposite to that between birds and plants. Plant richness had stronger effects than climate on mammal richness regardless of energy levels, but on bird richness only in high energy regions. The changes in the concordance between vertebrate and plant richness along the climatic gradient suggest that cautions are needed when using concordance between taxa in conservation planning. PMID:23840472

Species richness patterns and water-energy dynamics in the drylands of Northwest China.

PubMed

Li, Liping; Wang, Zhiheng; Zerbe, Stefan; Abdusalih, Nurbay; Tang, Zhiyao; Ma, Ming; Yin, Linke; Mohammat, Anwar; Han, Wenxuan; Fang, Jingyun

2013-01-01

Dryland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climatic and land-use changes, while the mechanisms underlying patterns of dryland species richness are still elusive. With distributions of 3637 native vascular plants, 154 mammals, and 425 birds in Xinjiang, China, we tested the water-energy dynamics hypothesis for species richness patterns in Central Asian drylands. Our results supported the water-energy dynamics hypothesis. We found that species richness of all three groups was a hump-shaped function of energy availability, but a linear function of water availability. We further found that water availability had stronger effects on plant richness, but weaker effects on vertebrate richness than energy availability. We conducted piecewise linear regressions to detect the breakpoints in the relationship between species richness and potential evapotranspiration which divided Xinjiang into low and high energy regions. The concordance between mammal and plant richness was stronger in high than in low energy regions, which was opposite to that between birds and plants. Plant richness had stronger effects than climate on mammal richness regardless of energy levels, but on bird richness only in high energy regions. The changes in the concordance between vertebrate and plant richness along the climatic gradient suggest that cautions are needed when using concordance between taxa in conservation planning.

Global Synthesis of Drought Effects on Maize and Wheat Production

PubMed Central

Daryanto, Stefani; Wang, Lixin; Jacinthe, Pierre-André

2016-01-01

Drought has been a major cause of agricultural disaster, yet how it affects the vulnerability of maize and wheat production in combination with several co-varying factors (i.e., phenological phases, agro-climatic regions, soil texture) remains unclear. Using a data synthesis approach, this study aims to better characterize the effects of those co-varying factors with drought and to provide critical information on minimizing yield loss. We collected data from peer-reviewed publications between 1980 and 2015 which examined maize and wheat yield responses to drought using field experiments. We performed unweighted analysis using the log response ratio to calculate the bootstrapped confidence limits of yield responses and calculated drought sensitivities with regards to those co-varying factors. Our results showed that yield reduction varied with species, with wheat having lower yield reduction (20.6%) compared to maize (39.3%) at approximately 40% water reduction. Maize was also more sensitive to drought than wheat, particularly during reproductive phase and equally sensitive in the dryland and non-dryland regions. While no yield difference was observed among regions or different soil texture, wheat cultivation in the dryland was more prone to yield loss than in the non-dryland region. Informed by these results, we discuss potential causes and possible approaches that may minimize drought impacts. PMID:27223810

Ancient Soils in a Sunburnt Country: Nutrient and Carbon Distributions in an Australian Dryland River System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntyre, R. E.; Grierson, P. F.; Adams, M. A.

2005-05-01

Riparian systems are hotspots in dryland landscapes for nutrient supply and transformation. Biogeochemical fluxes in riparian systems are closely coupled to hydrological flowpaths, which, in dryland regions, are characterised by catastrophic flooding and long periods of erratic or no flow. Re-wetting of soils stimulates soil microbial processes that drive mineralization of nutrients necessary for plant growth. We present here the first data of a 3-year research project investigating biogeochemical processes in riparian systems in the semi-arid Pilbara region of Western Australia. Spatial patterns of nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon were closely related to topographic zone (across floodplain and channels) and vegetation type. NO3- and PCi concentrations were four-fold higher in channel, bank and riparian soils than in soils of floodplain and riparian-floodplain transition zones. Nitrogen distribution was highly heterogeneous in riparian soils (NO3- CV=102%, NH4+ CV=84%) while phosphorus was particularly heterogeneous in floodplain soils (PCi CV=153%, PCo CV=266%), in comparison to other zones. Phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) and enzymatic profiles will be used to assess microbial functional groups, combined with mineralisation experiments and stable isotope studies (15N and 13C). These data will improve understanding of biogeochemical cycling in dryland riparian systems, and contribute to improved regional management of water resources.

Genomic footprints of dryland stress adaptation in Egyptian fat-tail sheep and their divergence from East African and western Asia cohorts.

PubMed

Mwacharo, Joram M; Kim, Eui-Soo; Elbeltagy, Ahmed R; Aboul-Naga, Adel M; Rischkowsky, Barbara A; Rothschild, Max F

2017-12-15

African indigenous sheep are classified as fat-tail, thin-tail and fat-rump hair sheep. The fat-tail are well adapted to dryland environments, but little is known on their genome profiles. We analyzed patterns of genomic variation by genotyping, with the Ovine SNP50K microarray, 394 individuals from five populations of fat-tail sheep from a desert environment in Egypt. Comparative inferences with other East African and western Asia fat-tail and European sheep, reveal at least two phylogeographically distinct genepools of fat-tail sheep in Africa that differ from the European genepool, suggesting separate evolutionary and breeding history. We identified 24 candidate selection sweep regions, spanning 172 potentially novel and known genes, which are enriched with genes underpinning dryland adaptation physiology. In particular, we found selection sweeps spanning genes and/or pathways associated with metabolism; response to stress, ultraviolet radiation, oxidative stress and DNA damage repair; activation of immune response; regulation of reproduction, organ function and development, body size and morphology, skin and hair pigmentation, and keratinization. Our findings provide insights on the complexity of genome architecture regarding dryland stress adaptation in the fat-tail sheep and showcase the indigenous stocks as appropriate genotypes for adaptation planning to sustain livestock production and human livelihoods, under future climates.

Hydrodynamics, vegetation transition and geomorphology coevolution in a semi-arid floodplain wetland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandi, Steven; Rodriguez, Jose F.; Saco, Patricia M.; Riccardi, Gerardo; Wen, Li; Saintilan, Neil

2016-04-01

The Macquarie Marshes is a complex system of marshes, swamps and lagoons interconnected by a network of streams in the semi-arid region in north western NSW, Australia. The low-gradient topography of the site leads to channel breakdown processes where the river network becomes practically non-existent. As a result, the flow extends over large areas of wetland that later re-join and reform channels exiting the system. Vegetation in semiarid wetlands are often water dependent and flood tolerant species that rely on periodical floods in order to maintain healthy conditions. The detrimental state of vegetation in the Macquarie Marshes over the past few decades has been linked to decreasing inundation frequencies. Spatial distribution of flood tolerant overstory species such as River Red Gum and Black Box has not greatly changed since early 1990's, however; the condition of the vegetation patches shows a clear deterioration evidenced by terrestrial species encroachment on the wetland understory. On the other hand, areas of flood dependent species such as Water Couch and Common Reed have undergone complete succession to terrestrial species and dryland. In order to simulate the complex dynamics of the marshes we have developed an ecogeomorphological modelling framework that combines hydrodynamic, vegetation and channel evolution modules and in this presentation we provide an update on the status of the model. The hydrodynamic simulation provides spatially distributed values of inundation extent, duration, depth and recurrence to drive a vegetation model based on species preference to hydraulic conditions. It also provides velocities and shear stresses to assess geomorphological changes. Regular updates of stream network, floodplain surface elevations and vegetation coverage provide feedbacks to the hydrodynamic model. We presents also the development and assessment of transitional rules to determine if the water conditions have been met for different vegetation associations in the patches known to have undergone succession to terrestrial species and dry-land.

Modeling marine oily wastewater treatment by a probabilistic agent-based approach.

PubMed

Jing, Liang; Chen, Bing; Zhang, Baiyu; Ye, Xudong

2018-02-01

This study developed a novel probabilistic agent-based approach for modeling of marine oily wastewater treatment processes. It begins first by constructing a probability-based agent simulation model, followed by a global sensitivity analysis and a genetic algorithm-based calibration. The proposed modeling approach was tested through a case study of the removal of naphthalene from marine oily wastewater using UV irradiation. The removal of naphthalene was described by an agent-based simulation model using 8 types of agents and 11 reactions. Each reaction was governed by a probability parameter to determine its occurrence. The modeling results showed that the root mean square errors between modeled and observed removal rates were 8.73 and 11.03% for calibration and validation runs, respectively. Reaction competition was analyzed by comparing agent-based reaction probabilities, while agents' heterogeneity was visualized by plotting their real-time spatial distribution, showing a strong potential for reactor design and process optimization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biederman, Joel A.; Scott, Russell L.; John A. Arnone,; Jasoni, Richard L.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Moreo, Michael T.; Papuga, Shirley A.; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2018-01-01

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these warm desert shrublands.

Riparian plant composition along hydrologic gradients in a dryland river basin and implications for a warming climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2017-01-01

Droughts in dryland regions on all continents are expected to increase in severity and duration under future climate projections. In dryland regions, it is likely that minimum streamflow will decrease with some perennial streams shifting to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in precipitation and runoff and increases in temperature. Decreasing base flow and shifting flow regimes from perennial to intermittent could have significant implications for stream-dependent biota, including riparian vegetation. In this study, we asked, how do riparian plant communities vary along wet-to-dry hydrologic gradients on small (first–third order) streams? We collected data on geomorphic, hydrologic, and plant community characteristics on 54 stream sites ranging in hydrology from intermittent to perennial flow across the Upper Colorado River Basin (284,898 km2). We found that plant communities varied along hydrologic gradients from high to low elevation between streams, and perennial to intermittent flow. We identified indicator species associated with different hydrologic conditions and suggest how plant communities may shift under warmer, drier conditions. Our results indicate that species richness and cover of total, perennial, wetland, and native plant groups will decrease while annual plants will increase under drying conditions. Understanding how plant communities respond to regional drivers such as hydroclimate requires broad-scale approaches such as sampling across whole river basins. With increasingly arid conditions in many regions of the globe, understanding plant community shifts is key to understanding the future of riparian ecosystems.

An economic analysis of hardwood fiber production on dryland irrigated sites in the US Southeast

Treesearch

Tom Gallagher; Bob Shaffer; Bob Rummer

2006-01-01

Although there is renewed interest in intensively managed, short-rotation plantations as a source of hardwood for pulp mills, few have been established in the Southeast. Understanding all the costs associated with these plantations will help determine their feasibility. Using a model developed to summarize all the costs, a break-even analysis was completed to determine...

An Active Learning Exercise for Introducing Agent-Based Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinder, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

Recent developments in agent-based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent-based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent-based…

Using Cotton Model Simulations to Estimate Optimally Profitable Irrigation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauget, S. A.; Leiker, G.; Sapkota, P.; Johnson, J.; Maas, S.

2011-12-01

In recent decades irrigation pumping from the Ogallala Aquifer has led to declines in saturated thickness that have not been compensated for by natural recharge, which has led to questions about the long-term viability of agriculture in the cotton producing areas of west Texas. Adopting irrigation management strategies that optimize profitability while reducing irrigation waste is one way of conserving the aquifer's water resource. Here, a database of modeled cotton yields generated under drip and center pivot irrigated and dryland production scenarios is used in a stochastic dominance analysis that identifies such strategies under varying commodity price and pumping cost conditions. This database and analysis approach will serve as the foundation for a web-based decision support tool that will help producers identify optimal irrigation treatments under specified cotton price, electricity cost, and depth to water table conditions.

Simulation and assessment of urbanization impacts on runoff metrics: insights from landuse changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Xia, Jun; Yu, Jingjie; Randall, Mark; Zhang, Yichi; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Pan, Xingyao; Zhai, Xiaoyan; Shao, Quanxi

2018-05-01

Urbanization-induced landuse changes alter runoff regimes in complex ways. In this study, a detailed investigation of the urbanization impacts on runoff regimes is provided by using multiple runoff metrics and with consideration of landuse dynamics. A catchment hydrological model is modified by coupling a simplified flow routing module of the urban drainage system and landuse dynamics to improve long-term urban runoff simulations. Moreover, multivariate statistical approach is adopted to mine the spatial variations of runoff metrics so as to further identify critical impact factors of landuse changes. The Qing River catchment as a peri-urban catchment in the Beijing metropolitan area is selected as our study region. Results show that: (1) the dryland agriculture is decreased from 13.9% to 1.5% of the total catchment area in the years 2000-2015, while the percentages of impervious surface, forest and grass are increased from 63.5% to 72.4%, 13.5% to 16.6% and 5.1% to 6.5%, respectively. The most dramatic landuse changes occur in the middle and downstream regions; (2) The combined landuse changes do not alter the average flow metrics obviously at the catchment outlet, but slightly increase the high flow metrics, particularly the extreme high flows; (3) The impacts on runoff metrics in the sub-catchments are more obvious than those at the catchment outlet. For the average flow metrics, the most impacted metric is the runoff depth in the dry season (October ∼ May) with a relative change from -10.9% to 11.6%, and the critical impact factors are the impervious surface and grass. For the high flow metrics, the extreme high flow depth is increased most significantly with a relative change from -0.6% to 10.5%, and the critical impact factors are the impervious surface and dryland agriculture; (4) The runoff depth metrics in the sub-catchments are increased because of the landuse changes from dryland agriculture to impervious surface, but are decreased because of the landuse changes from dryland agriculture or impervious surface to grass or forest. The results of this study provide useful information for urban planning such as Sponge City design.

SPARK: A Framework for Multi-Scale Agent-Based Biomedical Modeling.

PubMed

Solovyev, Alexey; Mikheev, Maxim; Zhou, Leming; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Ziraldo, Cordelia; An, Gary; Vodovotz, Yoram; Mi, Qi

2010-01-01

Multi-scale modeling of complex biological systems remains a central challenge in the systems biology community. A method of dynamic knowledge representation known as agent-based modeling enables the study of higher level behavior emerging from discrete events performed by individual components. With the advancement of computer technology, agent-based modeling has emerged as an innovative technique to model the complexities of systems biology. In this work, the authors describe SPARK (Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge), a framework for agent-based modeling specifically designed for systems-level biomedical model development. SPARK is a stand-alone application written in Java. It provides a user-friendly interface, and a simple programming language for developing Agent-Based Models (ABMs). SPARK has the following features specialized for modeling biomedical systems: 1) continuous space that can simulate real physical space; 2) flexible agent size and shape that can represent the relative proportions of various cell types; 3) multiple spaces that can concurrently simulate and visualize multiple scales in biomedical models; 4) a convenient graphical user interface. Existing ABMs of diabetic foot ulcers and acute inflammation were implemented in SPARK. Models of identical complexity were run in both NetLogo and SPARK; the SPARK-based models ran two to three times faster.

Crusts: biological

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Elias, Scott A.

2013-01-01

Biological soil crusts, a community of cyanobacteria, lichens, mosses, and fungi, are an essential part of dryland ecosystems. They are critical in the stabilization of soils, protecting them from wind and water erosion. Similarly, these soil surface communities also stabilized soils on early Earth, allowing vascular plants to establish. They contribute nitrogen and carbon to otherwise relatively infertile dryland soils, and have a strong influence on hydrologic cycles. Their presence can also influence vascular plant establishment and nutrition.

Afforestation and forests at the dryland edges: Lessons learned and future outlooks

Treesearch

Csaba Mátyás; Ge Sun; Yaoqi Zhang

2013-01-01

In the Drylands of Northern China, such as the Loess Plateau region, a buffer zone of planted forests—a “Green Great Wall”—has been created in the last five decades. These government programs have often generated unintended environmental consequences, and have failed to achieve the desired benefits. Planted forests withhold erosion, dust storms and silting of streams...

Desertification, land use, and the transformation of global drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Okin, Gregory S.; Duniway, Michael C.; Archer, Steven R.; Sayre, Nathan F.; Williamson, Jebediah C.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.

2015-01-01

Desertification is an escalating concern in global drylands, yet assessments to guide management and policy responses are limited by ambiguity concerning the definition of “desertification” and what processes are involved. To improve clarity, we propose that assessments of desertification and land transformation be placed within a state change–land-use change (SC–LUC) framework. This framework considers desertification as state changes occurring within the context of particular land uses (eg rangeland, cropland) that interact with land-use change. State changes that can be readily reversed are distinguished from regime shifts, which are state changes involving persistent alterations to vegetation or soil properties. Pressures driving the transformation of rangelands to other types of land uses may be low, fluctuating, or high, and may influence and be influenced by state change. We discuss how the SC–LUC perspective can guide more effective assessment of desertification and management of drylands.

Consentaneous Agent-Based and Stochastic Model of the Financial Markets

PubMed Central

Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

2014-01-01

We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation. PMID:25029364

Measuring and modeling stemflow by two xerophytic shrubs in the Loess Plateau: The role of dynamic canopy structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Li, X.; Li, W.; Shi, F.; Wu, H.; WU, X.; Pei, T.

2016-12-01

Stemflow plays an important role in hydrological processes in dryland shrubs, but it still remains poorly understood, especially regarding the effects of dynamic canopy structure on stemflow. This study aimed to measure and model the stemflow of two dominant xerophytic shrub (Hippophae rhamnoides and Spiraea pubescens) communities and to identify the key controlling factors of stemflow yield. We quantified and scaled-up stemflow from branches and leaves to stand levels. Correlations and stepwise regression analysis between stemflow and meteorological and biological factors indicated that at branch level, the rainfall amount and the branch diameter were the best variables for modelling and predicting stemflow for Hippophae rhamnoides, while the rainfall amount and the aboveground biomass were the best variables for modelling and predicting stemflow for Spiraea pubescens. At stand level, the stemflow yield is mostly affected by rainfall amount and leaf area index for both shrubs. The stemflow fluxes account for 3.5±0.9% of incident rainfall for H. rhamnoides community and 9.4±2.1% for S. pubescens community, respectively. The differences in percentages of stemflow between the two shrub communities was attributed to differences in canopy structures and water storage capacities. This evaluation of the effects of canopy structure dynamics on stemflow, and of the developed model, provided a better understanding of the effect of the canopy structure on the water cycles in dryland shrub ecosystems.

Carbon stock and its responses to climate change in Central Asia.

PubMed

Li, Chaofan; Zhang, Chi; Luo, Geping; Chen, Xi; Maisupova, Bagila; Madaminov, Abdullo A; Han, Qifei; Djenbaev, Bekmamat M

2015-05-01

Central Asia has a land area of 5.6 × 10(6) km(2) and contains 80-90% of the world's temperate deserts. Yet it is one of the least characterized areas in the estimation of the global carbon (C) stock/balance. This study assessed the sizes and spatiotemporal patterns of C pools in Central Asia using both inventory (based on 353 biomass and 284 soil samples) and process-based modeling approaches. The results showed that the C stock in Central Asia was 31.34-34.16 Pg in the top 1-m soil with another 10.42-11.43 Pg stored in deep soil (1-3 m) of the temperate deserts. They amounted to 18-24% of the global C stock in deserts and dry shrublands. The C stock was comparable to that of the neighboring regions in Eurasia or major drylands around the world (e.g. Australia). However, 90% of Central Asia C pool was stored in soil, and the fraction was much higher than in other regions. Compared to hot deserts of the world, the temperate deserts in Central Asia had relatively high soil organic carbon density. The C stock in Central Asia is under threat from dramatic climate change. During a decadal drought between 1998 and 2008, which was possibly related to protracted La Niña episodes, the dryland lost approximately 0.46 Pg C from 1979 to 2011. The largest C losses were found in northern Kazakhstan, where annual precipitation declined at a rate of 90 mm decade(-1) . The regional C dynamics were mainly determined by changes in the vegetation C pool, and the SOC pool was stable due to the balance between reduced plant-derived C influx and inhibited respiration. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A conceptual framework for dryland aeolian sediment transport along the grassland–forest continuum: Effects of woody plant canopy cover and disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breshears, D.D.; Whicker, J.J.; Zou, C.B.; Field, J.P.; Allen, Craig D.

2009-01-01

Aeolian processes are of particular importance in dryland ecosystems where ground cover is inherently sparse because of limited precipitation. Dryland ecosystems include grassland, shrubland, savanna, woodland, and forest, and can be viewed collectively as a continuum of woody plant cover spanning from grasslands with no woody plant cover up to forests with nearly complete woody plant cover. Along this continuum, the spacing and shape of woody plants determine the spatial density of roughness elements, which directly affects aeolian sediment transport. Despite the extensiveness of dryland ecosystems, studies of aeolian sediment transport have generally focused on agricultural fields, deserts, or highly disturbed sites where rates of transport are likely to be greatest. Until recently, few measurements have been made of aeolian sediment transport over multiple wind events and across a variety of types of dryland ecosystems. To evaluate potential trends in aeolian sediment transport as a function of woody plant cover, estimates of aeolian sediment transport from recently published studies, in concert with rates from four additional locations (two grassland and two woodland sites), are reported here. The synthesis of these reports leads to the development of a new conceptual framework for aeolian sediment transport in dryland ecosystems along the grassland–forest continuum.The findings suggest that: (1) for relatively undisturbed ecosystems, shrublands have inherently greater aeolian sediment transport because of wake interference flow associated with intermediate levels of density and spacing of woody plants; and (2) for disturbed ecosystems, the upper bound for aeolian sediment transport decreases as a function of increasing amounts of woody plant cover because of the effects of the height and density of the canopy on airflow patterns and ground cover associated with woody plant cover. Consequently, aeolian sediment transport following disturbance spans the largest range of rates in grasslands and associated systems with no woody plants (e.g., agricultural fields), an intermediate range in shrublands, and a relatively small range in woodlands and forests. These trends are consistent with previous observations relating large rates of wind erosion to intermediate values for spatial density of roughness elements. The framework for aeolian sediment transport, which is also relevant to dust fluxes, wind erosion, and related aeolian processes, is applicable to a diverse suite of environmental challenges, including land degradation and desertification, dust storms, contaminant transport, and alterations of the hydrological cycle.

A conceptual framework for dryland aeolian sediment transport along the grassland-forest continuum: Effects of woody plant canopy cover and disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breshears, David D.; Whicker, Jeffrey J.; Zou, Chris B.; Field, Jason P.; Allen, Craig D.

2009-04-01

Aeolian processes are of particular importance in dryland ecosystems where ground cover is inherently sparse because of limited precipitation. Dryland ecosystems include grassland, shrubland, savanna, woodland, and forest, and can be viewed collectively as a continuum of woody plant cover spanning from grasslands with no woody plant cover up to forests with nearly complete woody plant cover. Along this continuum, the spacing and shape of woody plants determine the spatial density of roughness elements, which directly affects aeolian sediment transport. Despite the extensiveness of dryland ecosystems, studies of aeolian sediment transport have generally focused on agricultural fields, deserts, or highly disturbed sites where rates of transport are likely to be greatest. Until recently, few measurements have been made of aeolian sediment transport over multiple wind events and across a variety of types of dryland ecosystems. To evaluate potential trends in aeolian sediment transport as a function of woody plant cover, estimates of aeolian sediment transport from recently published studies, in concert with rates from four additional locations (two grassland and two woodland sites), are reported here. The synthesis of these reports leads to the development of a new conceptual framework for aeolian sediment transport in dryland ecosystems along the grassland-forest continuum. The findings suggest that: (1) for relatively undisturbed ecosystems, shrublands have inherently greater aeolian sediment transport because of wake interference flow associated with intermediate levels of density and spacing of woody plants; and (2) for disturbed ecosystems, the upper bound for aeolian sediment transport decreases as a function of increasing amounts of woody plant cover because of the effects of the height and density of the canopy on airflow patterns and ground cover associated with woody plant cover. Consequently, aeolian sediment transport following disturbance spans the largest range of rates in grasslands and associated systems with no woody plants (e.g., agricultural fields), an intermediate range in shrublands, and a relatively small range in woodlands and forests. These trends are consistent with previous observations relating large rates of wind erosion to intermediate values for spatial density of roughness elements. The framework for aeolian sediment transport, which is also relevant to dust fluxes, wind erosion, and related aeolian processes, is applicable to a diverse suite of environmental challenges, including land degradation and desertification, dust storms, contaminant transport, and alterations of the hydrological cycle.

The highly intelligent virtual agents for modeling financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, G.; Chen, Y.; Huang, J. P.

2016-02-01

Researchers have borrowed many theories from statistical physics, like ensemble, Ising model, etc., to study complex adaptive systems through agent-based modeling. However, one fundamental difference between entities (such as spins) in physics and micro-units in complex adaptive systems is that the latter are usually with high intelligence, such as investors in financial markets. Although highly intelligent virtual agents are essential for agent-based modeling to play a full role in the study of complex adaptive systems, how to create such agents is still an open question. Hence, we propose three principles for designing high artificial intelligence in financial markets and then build a specific class of agents called iAgents based on these three principles. Finally, we evaluate the intelligence of iAgents through virtual index trading in two different stock markets. For comparison, we also include three other types of agents in this contest, namely, random traders, agents from the wealth game (modified on the famous minority game), and agents from an upgraded wealth game. As a result, iAgents perform the best, which gives a well support for the three principles. This work offers a general framework for the further development of agent-based modeling for various kinds of complex adaptive systems.

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE PAGES

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

2015-10-30

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-11-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cobb, M. A.; Dockter, R. E.

The permeability of ground surfaces within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Hanford Site strongly influences boundary conditions when simulating the movement of groundwater using the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases model. To conduct site-wide modeling of cumulative impacts to groundwater from past, current, and future waste management activities, a site-wide assessment of the permeability of surface conditions is needed. The surface condition of the vast majority of the Hanford Site has been and continues to be native soils vegetated with dryland grasses and shrubs.

Spectrally monitoring the response of the biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to altered precipitation regimes

DOE PAGES

Young, Kristina E.; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-02-06

Climate change is expected to impact drylands worldwide by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. These effects have known feedbacks to the functional roles of dryland biological soil crust communities (biocrusts), which are expected to undergo significant climate-induced changes in community structure and function. Nevertheless, our ability to monitor the status and physiology of biocrusts with remote sensing is limited due to the heterogeneous nature of dryland landscapes and the desiccation tolerance of biocrusts, which leaves them frequently photosynthetically inactive and difficult to assess. To address this critical limitation, we subjected a dominant biocrust species Syntrichia caninervis to climate-induced stressmore » in the form of small, frequent watering events, and spectrally monitored the dry mosses’ progression towards mortality. We found points of spectral sensitivity responding to experimentally-induced stress in desiccated mosses, indicating that spectral imaging is an effective tool to monitor photosynthetically inactive biocrusts. Comparing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Simple Ratio (SR), and the Normalized Pigment Chlorophyll Index (NPCI), we found NDVI minimally effective at capturing stress in precipitation-stressed dry mosses, while the SR and NPCI were highly effective. Lastly, our results suggest the strong potential for utilizing spectroscopy and chlorophyll-derived indices to monitor biocrust ecophysiological status, even when biocrusts are dry, with important implications for improving our understanding of dryland functioning.« less

Spectrally monitoring the response of the biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to altered precipitation regimes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Young, Kristina E.; Reed, Sasha C.

Climate change is expected to impact drylands worldwide by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. These effects have known feedbacks to the functional roles of dryland biological soil crust communities (biocrusts), which are expected to undergo significant climate-induced changes in community structure and function. Nevertheless, our ability to monitor the status and physiology of biocrusts with remote sensing is limited due to the heterogeneous nature of dryland landscapes and the desiccation tolerance of biocrusts, which leaves them frequently photosynthetically inactive and difficult to assess. To address this critical limitation, we subjected a dominant biocrust species Syntrichia caninervis to climate-induced stressmore » in the form of small, frequent watering events, and spectrally monitored the dry mosses’ progression towards mortality. We found points of spectral sensitivity responding to experimentally-induced stress in desiccated mosses, indicating that spectral imaging is an effective tool to monitor photosynthetically inactive biocrusts. Comparing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Simple Ratio (SR), and the Normalized Pigment Chlorophyll Index (NPCI), we found NDVI minimally effective at capturing stress in precipitation-stressed dry mosses, while the SR and NPCI were highly effective. Lastly, our results suggest the strong potential for utilizing spectroscopy and chlorophyll-derived indices to monitor biocrust ecophysiological status, even when biocrusts are dry, with important implications for improving our understanding of dryland functioning.« less

Spectrally monitoring the response of the biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to altered precipitation regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Kristina E.; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact drylands worldwide by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. These effects have known feedbacks to the functional roles of dryland biological soil crust communities (biocrusts), which are expected to undergo significant climate-induced changes in community structure and function. Nevertheless, our ability to monitor the status and physiology of biocrusts with remote sensing is limited due to the heterogeneous nature of dryland landscapes and the desiccation tolerance of biocrusts, which leaves them frequently photosynthetically inactive and difficult to assess. To address this critical limitation, we subjected a dominant biocrust species Syntrichia caninervis to climate-induced stress in the form of small, frequent watering events, and spectrally monitored the dry mosses’ progression towards mortality. We found points of spectral sensitivity responding to experimentally-induced stress in desiccated mosses, indicating that spectral imaging is an effective tool to monitor photosynthetically inactive biocrusts. Comparing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Simple Ratio (SR), and the Normalized Pigment Chlorophyll Index (NPCI), we found NDVI minimally effective at capturing stress in precipitation-stressed dry mosses, while the SR and NPCI were highly effective. Our results suggest the strong potential for utilizing spectroscopy and chlorophyll-derived indices to monitor biocrust ecophysiological status, even when biocrusts are dry, with important implications for improving our understanding of dryland functioning.

A Micro-Level Data-Calibrated Agent-Based Model: The Synergy between Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Singh, Karandeep; Ahn, Chang-Won; Paik, Euihyun; Bae, Jang Won; Lee, Chun-Hee

2018-01-01

Artificial life (ALife) examines systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, using simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. In this article, we focus on the computer modeling, or "soft," aspects of ALife and prepare a framework for scientists and modelers to be able to support such experiments. The framework is designed and built to be a parallel as well as distributed agent-based modeling environment, and does not require end users to have expertise in parallel or distributed computing. Furthermore, we use this framework to implement a hybrid model using microsimulation and agent-based modeling techniques to generate an artificial society. We leverage this artificial society to simulate and analyze population dynamics using Korean population census data. The agents in this model derive their decisional behaviors from real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent-based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation. The behaviors, interactions, and social scenarios of the agents are varied to perform an analysis of population dynamics. We also estimate the future cost of pension policies based on the future population structure of the artificial society. The proposed framework and model demonstrates how ALife techniques can be used by researchers in relation to social issues and policies.

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: climate change consequences for soil water resources.

PubMed

Palmquist, Kyle A; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K

2016-09-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: (1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems, and (2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT, to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, whereas changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer, drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

A CSP-Based Agent Modeling Framework for the Cougaar Agent-Based Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gracanin, Denis; Singh, H. Lally; Eltoweissy, Mohamed; Hinchey, Michael G.; Bohner, Shawn A.

2005-01-01

Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is a Java-based architecture for large-scale distributed agent-based applications. A Cougaar agent is an autonomous software entity with behaviors that represent a real-world entity (e.g., a business process). A Cougaar-based Model Driven Architecture approach, currently under development, uses a description of system's functionality (requirements) to automatically implement the system in Cougaar. The Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) formalism is used for the formal validation of the generated system. Two main agent components, a blackboard and a plugin, are modeled as CSP processes. A set of channels represents communications between the blackboard and individual plugins. The blackboard is represented as a CSP process that communicates with every agent in the collection. The developed CSP-based Cougaar modeling framework provides a starting point for a more complete formal verification of the automatically generated Cougaar code. Currently it is used to verify the behavior of an individual agent in terms of CSP properties and to analyze the corresponding Cougaar society.

A Collective Case Study of Secondary Students' Model-Based Inquiry on Natural Selection through Programming in an Agent-Based Modeling Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiang, Lin

2011-01-01

This is a collective case study seeking to develop detailed descriptions of how programming an agent-based simulation influences a group of 8th grade students' model-based inquiry (MBI) by examining students' agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) processes and the learning outcomes. The context of the present study was a biology unit on…

Vegetation Water Content Mapping in a Diverse Agricultural Landscape: National Airborne Field Experiment 2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cosh, Michael H.; Jing Tao; Jackson, Thomas J.; McKee, Lynn; O'Neill, Peggy

2011-01-01

Mapping land cover and vegetation characteristics on a regional scale is critical to soil moisture retrieval using microwave remote sensing. In aircraft-based experiments such as the National Airborne Field Experiment 2006 (NAFE 06), it is challenging to provide accurate high resolution vegetation information, especially on a daily basis. A technique proposed in previous studies was adapted here to the heterogenous conditions encountered in NAFE 06, which included a hydrologically complex landscape consisting of both irrigated and dryland agriculture. Using field vegetation sampling and ground-based reflectance measurements, the knowledge base for relating the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the vegetation water content was extended to a greater diversity of agricultural crops, which included dryland and irrigated wheat, alfalfa, and canola. Critical to the generation of vegetation water content maps, the land cover for this region was determined from satellite visible/infrared imagery and ground surveys with an accuracy of 95.5% and a kappa coefficient of 0.95. The vegetation water content was estimated with a root mean square error of 0.33 kg/sq m. The results of this investigation contribute to a more robust database of global vegetation water content observations and demonstrate that the approach can be applied with high accuracy. Keywords: Vegetation, field experimentation, thematic mapper, NDWI, agriculture.

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua; ...

2016-01-25

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Disaggregation and Refinement of System Dynamics Models via Agent-based Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutaro, James J; Ozmen, Ozgur; Schryver, Jack C

System dynamics models are usually used to investigate aggregate level behavior, but these models can be decomposed into agents that have more realistic individual behaviors. Here we develop a simple model of the STEM workforce to illuminate the impacts that arise from the disaggregation and refinement of system dynamics models via agent-based modeling. Particularly, alteration of Poisson assumptions, adding heterogeneity to decision-making processes of agents, and discrete-time formulation are investigated and their impacts are illustrated. The goal is to demonstrate both the promise and danger of agent-based modeling in the context of a relatively simple model and to delineate themore » importance of modeling decisions that are often overlooked.« less

Applications of agent-based modeling to nutrient movement Lake Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an ongoing project aiming to provide useful information for nearshore management (harmful algal blooms, nutrient loading), we explore the value of agent-based models in Lake Michigan. Agent-based models follow many individual “agents” moving through a simul...

The potential roles of biological soil crusts in dryland hydrologic cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, J.

2006-01-01

Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are the dominant living cover in many drylands of the world. They possess many features that can influence different aspects of local hydrologic cycles, including soil porosity, absorptivity, roughness, aggregate stability, texture, pore formation, and water retention. The influence of biological soil crusts on these factors depends on their internal and external structure, which varies with climate, soil, and disturbance history. This paper presents the different types of biological soil crusts, discusses how crust type likely influences various aspects of the hydrologic cycle, and reviews what is known and not known about the influence of biological crusts on sediment production and water infiltration versus runoff in various drylands around the world. Most studies examining the effect of biological soil crusts on local hydrology are done by comparing undisturbed sites with those recently disturbed by the researchers. Unfortunately, this greatly complicates interpretation of the results. Applied disturbances alter many soil features such as soil texture, roughness, aggregate stability, physical crusting, porosity, and bulk density in ways that would not necessarily be the same if crusts were not naturally present. Combined, these studies show little agreement on how biological crusts affect water infiltration or runoff. However, when studies are separated by biological crust type and utilize naturally occurring differences among these types, results indicate that biological crusts in hyperarid regions reduce infiltration and increase runoff, have mixed effects in and regions, and increase infiltration and reduce runoff in semiarid cool and cold drylands. However, more studies are needed before broad generalizations can be made on how biological crusts affect infiltration and runoff. We especially need studies that control for sub-surface soil features such as bulk density, micro- and macropores, and biological crust structure. Unlike the mixed effects of biological crusts on infiltration and runoff among regions, almost all studies show that biological crusts reduce sediment production, regardless of crust or dryland type.

Regional & National Scale Assessment of the Impact of the US Livestock Footprint on Dryland Productive Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulawardhana, R. W.; Washington-Allen, R. A.; Mitchell, J. E.; Reeves, M. C.

2009-12-01

Recent reports from the Heinz Center and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) concluded that the amount and extent of desertification is unknown at national to global spatial scales. This is primarily due to lack of consistent monitoring and assessment systems at these spatial and temporal (> 15 year) scales necessary to separate the effects of anthropogenic practices from climate change. Thus, the purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the US livestock footprint (the forage required by herbivores), on Dryland productive capacity or above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) at regional (Texas) and national extents. Dryland extent is defined as the aridity index (AI): the ratio of mean annual potential evapotranspiration to mean annual precipitation between 0.05 and 0.65. The Dryland grazable area (39 million ha in Texas and 257 million ha for US) was determined by converting 1992 and 2001 land cover classes to one land use category: rangelands. Rangelands were intersected with Drylands at Texas and US extents. The US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (USDA-NASS) county- and state-level livestock numbers were converted to forage required to derive the ecological footprint for goats at the county-level (259,325 tons) for Texas from 2000 to 2006 and for all grazing livestock (216 million tons) at the national-level for 2002. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP was converted to ANPP by subtracting the below-ground (roots) component. ANPP is synonymous with the forage available to herbivores (35 million tons on average from 2000 to 2006 for Texas and 149 million tons in 2002 for the US) and is generated for the same years and extents as the forage required. The percentage grazable area of Texas and the US impacted by livestock appropriation of NPP (LANPP = Forage available - Forage required) was 12% and 19 %, respectively.

The potential roles of biological soil crusts in dryland hydrologic cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belnap, Jayne

2006-10-01

Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are the dominant living cover in many drylands of the world. They possess many features that can influence different aspects of local hydrologic cycles, including soil porosity, absorptivity, roughness, aggregate stability, texture, pore formation, and water retention. The influence of biological soil crusts on these factors depends on their internal and external structure, which varies with climate, soil, and disturbance history. This paper presents the different types of biological soil crusts, discusses how crust type likely influences various aspects of the hydrologic cycle, and reviews what is known and not known about the influence of biological crusts on sediment production and water infiltration versus runoff in various drylands around the world. Most studies examining the effect of biological soil crusts on local hydrology are done by comparing undisturbed sites with those recently disturbed by the researchers. Unfortunately, this greatly complicates interpretation of the results. Applied disturbances alter many soil features such as soil texture, roughness, aggregate stability, physical crusting, porosity, and bulk density in ways that would not necessarily be the same if crusts were not naturally present. Combined, these studies show little agreement on how biological crusts affect water infiltration or runoff. However, when studies are separated by biological crust type and utilize naturally occurring differences among these types, results indicate that biological crusts in hyperarid regions reduce infiltration and increase runoff, have mixed effects in arid regions, and increase infiltration and reduce runoff in semiarid cool and cold drylands. However, more studies are needed before broad generalizations can be made on how biological crusts affect infiltration and runoff. We especially need studies that control for sub-surface soil features such as bulk density, micro- and macropores, and biological crust structure. Unlike the mixed effects of biological crusts on infiltration and runoff among regions, almost all studies show that biological crusts reduce sediment production, regardless of crust or dryland type.

The Agent-based Approach: A New Direction for Computational Models of Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schlesinger, Matthew; Parisi, Domenico

2001-01-01

Introduces the concepts of online and offline sampling and highlights the role of online sampling in agent-based models of learning and development. Compares the strengths of each approach for modeling particular developmental phenomena and research questions. Describes a recent agent-based model of infant causal perception. Discusses limitations…

Dynamics of skimming flow in the wake of a vegetation patch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayaud, Jerome R.; Wiggs, Giles F. S.; Bailey, Richard M.

2016-09-01

Dryland vegetation is often spatially patchy, and so affects wind flow in complex ways. Theoretical models and wind tunnel testing have shown that skimming flow develops above vegetation patches at high plant densities, resulting in little or no wind erosion in these zones. Understanding the dynamics of skimming flow is therefore important for predicting sediment transport and bedform development in dryland areas. However, no field-based data are available describing turbulent airflow dynamics in the wake of vegetation patches. In this study, turbulent wind flow was examined using high-frequency (10 Hz) sonic anemometry at four measurement heights (0.30 m, 0.55 m, 1.10 m and 1.65 m) along a transect in the lee of an extensive patch of shrubs (z = 1.10 m height) in Namibia. Spatial variations in mean wind velocity, horizontal Reynolds stresses and coherent turbulent structures were analysed. We found that wind velocity in the wake of the patch effectively recovered over ∼12 patch heights (h) downwind, which is 2-5 h longer than previously reported recovery lengths for individual vegetation elements and two-dimensional wind fences. This longer recovery can be attributed to a lack of flow moving around the obstacle in the patch case. The step-change in roughness between the patch canopy and the bare surface in its wake resulted in an initial peak in resultant horizontal shear stress (τr) followed by significant decrease downwind. In contrast to τr , horizontal normal Reynolds stress (u‧2 ‾) progressively increased along the patch wake. A separation of the upper shear layer at the leeside edge of the patch was observed, and a convergence of τr curves implies the formation of a constant stress layer by ∼20 h downwind. The use of τr at multiple heights is found to be a useful tool for identifying flow equilibration in complex aerodynamic regimes. Quadrant analysis revealed elevated frequencies of Q2 (ejection) and Q4 (sweep) events in the immediate lee of the patch, which contributed to the observed high levels of shear stress. The increasing downwind contribution of Q1 (outward interaction) events, which coincides with greater u‧2 ‾ and wind velocity, suggests that sediment transport potential increases with greater distance from the patch edge. Determining realistic, field-derived constraints on turbulent airflow dynamics in the wakes of vegetation patches is crucial for accurately parameterising sediment transport potential in larger-scale dryland landscape models. This will help to improve our understanding of how semi-vegetated desert surfaces might react to future environmental and anthropogenic stresses.

Finding of No Significant Impact Construction of a New Water Pipeline, Travis Air Force Base, Solano County, California

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-03

primarily grasslands.. Prior to the establishment of Travis AFB, the land was used for cattle grazing and dry-land wheat and barley farming. Cattle and...use has led to the rails becoming rusted . Soil and gravels have built up along the edges of the ties in some locations, or have eroded away in

Predicting, Measuring, and Monitoring Aquatic Invertebrate Biodiversity on Dryland Military Bases

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-15

PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Oregon State University...Corvallis; 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER University of Washington, Seattle University of Florida, Gainesville...part of this biodiversity and form a critical part of the food web that sustains aquatic, riparian, and terrestrial organisms , including Federally

Assessing the benefits and costs of dryland forest restoration in central Chile.

PubMed

Schiappacasse, Ignacio; Nahuelhual, Laura; Vásquez, Felipe; Echeverría, Cristian

2012-04-30

Investment in natural capital restoration is increasing as a response to the widespread ecological degradation of dryland forests. However, finding efficient mechanisms to promote restoration among private landowners is a significant challenge for policy makers with limited financial resources. Furthermore, few attempts have been made to evaluate the costs and benefits of restoration interventions even though this information is relevant to orient decision making. Hence, our goal was to estimate the benefits and costs of dryland forest restoration by means of reforestation with native trees in a study area in central Chile. To determine benefits we applied a Contingent Valuation questionnaire that allowed for the calculation of willingness to pay measures. Restoration costs were calculated based on market prices following existing technical recommendations developed for the study area. The results showed that the restoration project had a negative NPV irrespective of the discount rate applied in the analysis. Thus, the NPV varied between -US$71,000 and -US$258,000. The NPV attained positive results only for negative discount rates (US$15,039 for -2%) and only when the national subsidy available for forest restoration was taken into account. This shows that landowners in Colliguay do not have incentives for carrying out restoration interventions due to a classic market failure: that in which ecosystems are mismanaged because many of their benefits are externalities from the perspective of landowners. Overall, these results stress the need for developing new compensation mechanisms and enhancing those in existence, with the aim of making restoration competitive with other land uses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demeter, persephone, and the search for emergence in agent-based models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

North, M. J.; Howe, T. R.; Collier, N. T.

2006-01-01

In Greek mythology, the earth goddess Demeter was unable to find her daughter Persephone after Persephone was abducted by Hades, the god of the underworld. Demeter is said to have embarked on a long and frustrating, but ultimately successful, search to find her daughter. Unfortunately, long and frustrating searches are not confined to Greek mythology. In modern times, agent-based modelers often face similar troubles when searching for agents that are to be to be connected to one another and when seeking appropriate target agents while defining agent behaviors. The result is a 'search for emergence' in that many emergent ormore » potentially emergent behaviors in agent-based models of complex adaptive systems either implicitly or explicitly require search functions. This paper considers a new nested querying approach to simplifying such agent-based modeling and multi-agent simulation search problems.« less

Developing a Conceptual Architecture for a Generalized Agent-based Modeling Environment (GAME)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

4. REPAST (Java, Python , C#, Open Source) ........28 5. MASON: Multi-Agent Modeling Language (Swarm Extension... Python , C#, Open Source) Repast (Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit) was designed for building agent-based models and simulations in the...Repast makes it easy for inexperienced users to build models by including a built-in simple model and provide interfaces through which menus and Python

Simulating Cancer Growth with Multiscale Agent-Based Modeling

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D.; Kerketta, Romica; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S.

2014-01-01

There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models. PMID:24793698

Building occupancy simulation and data assimilation using a graph-based agent-oriented model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Sanish; Hu, Xiaolin

2018-07-01

Building occupancy simulation and estimation simulates the dynamics of occupants and estimates their real-time spatial distribution in a building. It requires a simulation model and an algorithm for data assimilation that assimilates real-time sensor data into the simulation model. Existing building occupancy simulation models include agent-based models and graph-based models. The agent-based models suffer high computation cost for simulating large numbers of occupants, and graph-based models overlook the heterogeneity and detailed behaviors of individuals. Recognizing the limitations of existing models, this paper presents a new graph-based agent-oriented model which can efficiently simulate large numbers of occupants in various kinds of building structures. To support real-time occupancy dynamics estimation, a data assimilation framework based on Sequential Monte Carlo Methods is also developed and applied to the graph-based agent-oriented model to assimilate real-time sensor data. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the developed model and the data assimilation framework. The major contributions of this work are to provide an efficient model for building occupancy simulation that can accommodate large numbers of occupants and an effective data assimilation framework that can provide real-time estimations of building occupancy from sensor data.

A regional field-based assessment of organic C sequestration and GHG balances in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean semi-arid land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virto, Inigo; Antón, Rodrigo; Arias, Nerea; Orcaray, Luis; Enrique, Alberto; Bescansa, Paloma

2016-04-01

In a context of global change and increasing food demand, agriculture faces the challenge of ensuring food security making a sustainable use of resources, especially arable land and water. This implies in many areas a transition towards agricultural systems with increased and stable productivity and a more efficient use of inputs. The introduction of irrigation is, within this framework, a widespread strategy. However, the C cycle and the net GHG emissions can be significantly affected by irrigation. The net effect of this change needs to be quantified at a regional scale. In the region of Navarra (NE Spain) more than 22,300 ha of rainfed agricultural land have been converted to irrigation in the last years, adding to the previous existing irrigated area of 70,000 ha. In this framework the project Life+ Regadiox (LIFE12 ENV/ES/000426, http://life-regadiox.es/) has the objective of evaluating the net GHG balances and atmospheric CO2 fixation rates of different management strategies in irrigated agriculture in the region. The project involved the identification of areas representative of the different pedocllimatic conditions in the region. This required soil and climate characterizations, and the design of a network of agricultural fields representative of the most common dryland and irrigation managements in these areas. This was done from available public datasets on climate and soil, and from soil pits especially sampled for this study. Two areas were then delimited, mostly based on their degree of aridity. Within each of those areas, fields were selected to allow for comparisons at three levels: (i) dryland vs irrigation, (ii) soil and crop management systems for non-permanent crops, and (iii) soil management strategies for permanent crops (namely olive orchards and vineyards). In a second step, the objective of this work was to quantify net SOC variations and GHG balances corresponding to the different managements identified in the previous step. These quantifications will allow for evaluating the most suitable strategies for developing sustainable irrigation agrosystems in the region. The quantification of SOC stocks was done within equivalent soil units in each area, and for each level of comparison. Soil organic C stocks were quantified using the area-frame randomized soil sampling protocol (Stolbovoy et al., 2007), in the tilled layer (0-30 cm). GHG balances were calculated from inputs information obtained from farmers, using tools developed by the regional agricultural research institute (INTIA), adapted to the local characteristics of agriculture. The results corresponding to the comparison between dryland and irrigated agrosystems showed differences both in terms of SOC storage and GHG balances in the two studied areas. Irrigated fields had significantly greater stocks of SOC on average, although net organic C storage was significantly affected by soil and crop type. Also, organic fertilization in dryland resulted in significantly more SOC stored in the soil. Net GHG balances were greatly affected by the type of crops and their management, in particular fertilization strategies. As a result, net balances in terms of GHG emissions and mitigation varied greatly among irrigated systems, and in comparison to dryland systems.

Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.

PubMed

O'Neil, Caroline A; Sattenspiel, Lisa

2010-01-01

Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions. The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously. Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities. Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Argentine stem weevil ( Listronotus bonariensis, Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in Canterbury, New Zealand dryland pasture.

PubMed

Goldson, S L; Barron, M C; Kean, J M; van Koten, C

2011-06-01

The Argentine stem weevil (Listronotus bonariensis) was an economically important pest in New Zealand pastures until the release of the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae. This contribution uses historical data to investigate the regulation of the pest populations prior to, and somewhat during, the establishment of this parasitoid in dryland Canterbury, New Zealand. Thus, a significant goal of this study is to provide an L. bonariensis population dynamics baseline for any future work that aims to analyse the full effects of M. hyperodae on the weevil, now that equilibrium with the weevil host has been reached.The population dynamics of L. bonariensis, based on a life-table approach, were investigated using data collected regularly for eight years from populations in Canterbury, New Zealand. The key factor affecting end-of-season L. bonariensis density was found to be variation in second generation fourth instar prepupal and pupal mortality. This may have been caused by arrested development and ongoing mortality resulting from the onset of cooler autumnal conditions.A compensatory response was found in recruitment to the second summer weevil generation, whereby the realised fecundity of the emergent first summer generation of weevils was found to be negatively related to the density of adult weevils per ryegrass tiller. This is the first time that this has been found via long-term population analysis of L. bonariensis, although indications of this have been found elsewhere in caging, pot and small plot experiments.In this study, the effect of the parasitoid biocontrol agent Microctonus hyperodae on L. bonariensis population dynamics was unclear, as the analysis covered a period when the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae was introduced and still establishing. It does, however, raise important questions for future analysis in terms of the interaction between parasitism and unrealised fecundity.The results in this contribution also highlighted regional differences. Overwintering mortality of adult weevils in Canterbury was constant between years, whilst earlier studies in the North Island Waikato region indicated this mortality was density dependent. In addition, the availability of tillers in endophyte-free ryegrass pastures in Canterbury had no influence on egg and early-instar larval survival, which contrasts with the finding from endophytic Waikato pastures.

Unsilencing Critical Conversations in Social-Studies Teacher Education Using Agent-Based Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hostetler, Andrew; Sengupta, Pratim; Hollett, Ty

2018-01-01

In this article, we argue that when complex sociopolitical issues such as ethnocentrism and racial segregation are represented as complex, emergent systems using agent-based computational models (in short agent-based models or ABMs), discourse about these representations can disrupt social studies teacher candidates' dispositions of teaching…

Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research.

PubMed

Auchincloss, Amy H; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

2015-11-01

There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation.

Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research

PubMed Central

Auchincloss, Amy H.; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

2017-01-01

There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation. PMID:26648364

A technology path to tactical agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Alex; Hanratty, Timothy P.

2017-05-01

Wargaming is a process of thinking through and visualizing events that could occur during a possible course of action. Over the past 200 years, wargaming has matured into a set of formalized processes. One area of growing interest is the application of agent-based modeling. Agent-based modeling and its additional supporting technologies has potential to introduce a third-generation wargaming capability to the Army, creating a positive overmatch decision-making capability. In its simplest form, agent-based modeling is a computational technique that helps the modeler understand and simulate how the "whole of a system" responds to change over time. It provides a decentralized method of looking at situations where individual agents are instantiated within an environment, interact with each other, and empowered to make their own decisions. However, this technology is not without its own risks and limitations. This paper explores a technology roadmap, identifying research topics that could realize agent-based modeling within a tactical wargaming context.

A Distributed Platform for Global-Scale Agent-Based Models of Disease Transmission

PubMed Central

Parker, Jon; Epstein, Joshua M.

2013-01-01

The Global-Scale Agent Model (GSAM) is presented. The GSAM is a high-performance distributed platform for agent-based epidemic modeling capable of simulating a disease outbreak in a population of several billion agents. It is unprecedented in its scale, its speed, and its use of Java. Solutions to multiple challenges inherent in distributing massive agent-based models are presented. Communication, synchronization, and memory usage are among the topics covered in detail. The memory usage discussion is Java specific. However, the communication and synchronization discussions apply broadly. We provide benchmarks illustrating the GSAM’s speed and scalability. PMID:24465120

Can plastic mulching replace irrigation in dryland agriculture?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Daryanto, S.; Jacinthe, P. A.

2017-12-01

Increasing water use efficiency (WUE) is a key strategy to maintaining crops yield without over-exploiting the scarce water resource. Plastic mulching technology for wheat and maize has been commonly used in China, but their effect on yield, soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and WUE has not been compared with traditional irrigation method. Using a meta-analysis approach, we quantitatively examined the efficacy of plastic mulching in comparison with traditional irrigation in dryland agriculture. Our results showed that plastic mulching technique resulted in yield increase comparable to irrigated crops but used 24% less water. By covering the ridges with plastic and channeling rainwater into a very narrow planting zone (furrow), plastic mulching increased WUE and available soil moisture. Higher WUE in plastic-mulched croplands was likely a result of greater proportion of available water being used for transpiration than evaporation. If problems related to production costs and residual plastic pollution could be managed, plastic mulching technology would become a promising strategy for dryland farming in other regions.

An extensible simulation environment and movement metrics for testing walking behavior in agent-based models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul M. Torrens; Atsushi Nara; Xun Li

2012-01-01

Human movement is a significant ingredient of many social, environmental, and technical systems, yet the importance of movement is often discounted in considering systems complexity. Movement is commonly abstracted in agent-based modeling (which is perhaps the methodological vehicle for modeling complex systems), despite the influence of movement upon information exchange and adaptation in a system. In particular, agent-based models of urban pedestrians often treat movement in proxy form at the expense of faithfully treating movement behavior with realistic agency. There exists little consensus about which method is appropriate for representing movement in agent-based schemes. In this paper, we examine popularly-usedmore » methods to drive movement in agent-based models, first by introducing a methodology that can flexibly handle many representations of movement at many different scales and second, introducing a suite of tools to benchmark agent movement between models and against real-world trajectory data. We find that most popular movement schemes do a relatively poor job of representing movement, but that some schemes may well be 'good enough' for some applications. We also discuss potential avenues for improving the representation of movement in agent-based frameworks.« less

Fine-resolution repeat topographic surveying of dryland landscapes using UAS-based structure-from-motion photogrammetry: Assessing accuracy and precision against traditional ground-based erosion measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillian, Jeffrey K.; Karl, Jason W.; Elaksher, Ahmed; Duniway, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry from unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery is an emerging tool for repeat topographic surveying of dryland erosion. These methods are particularly appealing due to the ability to cover large landscapes compared to field methods and at reduced costs and finer spatial resolution compared to airborne laser scanning. Accuracy and precision of high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs) derived from UAS imagery have been explored in many studies, typically by comparing image coordinates to surveyed check points or LiDAR datasets. In addition to traditional check points, this study compared 5 cm resolution DTMs derived from fixed-wing UAS imagery with a traditional ground-based method of measuring soil surface change called erosion bridges. We assessed accuracy by comparing the elevation values between DTMs and erosion bridges along thirty topographic transects each 6.1 m long. Comparisons occurred at two points in time (June 2014, February 2015) which enabled us to assess vertical accuracy with 3314 data points and vertical precision (i.e., repeatability) with 1657 data points. We found strong vertical agreement (accuracy) between the methods (RMSE 2.9 and 3.2 cm in June 2014 and February 2015, respectively) and high vertical precision for the DTMs (RMSE 2.8 cm). Our results from comparing SfM-generated DTMs to check points, and strong agreement with erosion bridge measurements suggests repeat UAS imagery and SfM processing could replace erosion bridges for a more synoptic landscape assessment of shifting soil surfaces for some studies. However, while collecting the UAS imagery and generating the SfM DTMs for this study was faster than collecting erosion bridge measurements, technical challenges related to the need for ground control networks and image processing requirements must be addressed before this technique could be applied effectively to large landscapes.

Agent-Based Modeling in Public Health: Current Applications and Future Directions.

PubMed

Tracy, Melissa; Cerdá, Magdalena; Keyes, Katherine M

2018-04-01

Agent-based modeling is a computational approach in which agents with a specified set of characteristics interact with each other and with their environment according to predefined rules. We review key areas in public health where agent-based modeling has been adopted, including both communicable and noncommunicable disease, health behaviors, and social epidemiology. We also describe the main strengths and limitations of this approach for questions with public health relevance. Finally, we describe both methodologic and substantive future directions that we believe will enhance the value of agent-based modeling for public health. In particular, advances in model validation, comparisons with other causal modeling procedures, and the expansion of the models to consider comorbidity and joint influences more systematically will improve the utility of this approach to inform public health research, practice, and policy.

Ecohydrological implications of aeolian sediment trapping by sparse vegetation in drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzales, Howell B.; Ravi, Sujith; Li, Junran; Sankey, Joel B.

2018-01-01

Aeolian processes are important drivers of ecosystem dynamics in drylands, and important feedbacks exist among aeolian – hydrological processes and vegetation. The trapping of wind-borne sediments by vegetation may result in changes in soil properties beneath the vegetation, which, in turn, can alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes. Despite the relevance of aeolian transport to ecosystem dynamics, the interactions between aeolian transport and vegetation in shaping dryland landscapes where sediment distribution is altered by relatively rapid changes in vegetation composition such as shrub encroachment, is not well understood. Here, we used a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling framework to investigate the sediment trapping efficiencies of vegetation canopies commonly found in a shrub-grass ecotone in the Chihuahuan Desert (New Mexico, USA) and related the results to spatial heterogeneity in soil texture and infiltration measured in the field. A CFD open-source software package was used to simulate aeolian sediment movement through three-dimensional architectural depictions of Creosote shrub (Larrea tridentata) and Black Grama grass (Bouteloua eriopoda) vegetation types. The vegetation structures were created using a computer-aided design software (Blender), with inherent canopy porosities, which were derived using LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) measurements of plant canopies. Results show that considerable heterogeneity in infiltration and soil grain size distribution exist between the microsites, with higher infiltration and coarser soil texture under shrubs. Numerical simulations also indicate that the differential trapping of canopies might contribute to the observed heterogeneity in soil texture. In the early stages of encroachment, the shrub canopies, by trapping coarser particles more efficiently, might maintain higher infiltration rates leading to faster development of the microsites (among other factors) with enhanced ecological productivity, which might provide positive feedbacks to shrub encroachment.

Regulations of evapotranspiration and ecosystem productivity from biophysical and human drivers in drylands Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; Ouyang, Z.; John, R.; Henebry, G. M.; Xie, Y.; de Beurs, K.; Fan, Y.; Shao, C.; Qi, J.; Wu, J.; Liu, Y.

2015-12-01

The concept of coupled human and environmental systems (CHES) has been a dominant framework in the past decade for understanding the cohesive connections between natural and human systems. Here we focus on how socio-ecological services may be regulated by the regional and local water cycles and by ecosystem production in the drylands of Northern Asia (>40 degree N), which includes Inner Mongolia of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Total precipitation and evapotranspiration are used as the primary drivers to explain ecosystem production (e.g., GPP) and indicators of social function and structure (e.g., GDP, population) using the data collected from 1980 through 2010 of these seven areas. We hypothesize that the changes in the regional and local water cycles in these contrasting regions and socioeconomic settings significantly affect CHES functioning. Institutional changes, including shifts in policy, can play a much stronger role than those caused by the physical changes in determining the relationships between water cycle and CHES functioning. The complex connections among the biophysical and socioeconomic variables are analyzed through structural equation modeling (SEM) at country and regional scales. The highest water use efficiency (GPP:PET=0.57) was found for Uzbekistan, which also had the highest GDP:GPP (0.66) among the seven areas. In contrast, Mongolia exhibited the lowest values during the study period despite its very high GPP:Population value (45.8). The low population in Mongolia appeared responsible for its rank within the dryland region. Regional institutional changes with global ramifications, such as the collapse of Soviet Union and China joining the World Trade Organization, appears to have affected the CHES of the study areas.

Spatiotemporal Variation and the Role of Wildlife in Seasonal Water Quality Declines in the Chobe River, Botswana

PubMed Central

Fox, J. Tyler; Alexander, Kathleen A.

2015-01-01

Sustainable management of dryland river systems is often complicated by extreme variability of precipitation in time and space, especially across large catchment areas. Understanding regional water quality changes in southern African dryland rivers and wetland systems is especially important because of their high subsistence value and provision of ecosystem services essential to both public and animal health. We quantified seasonal variation of Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in the Chobe River using spatiotemporal and geostatistical modeling of water quality time series data collected along a transect spanning a mosaic of protected, urban, and developing urban land use. We found significant relationships in the dry season between E. coli concentrations and protected land use (p = 0.0009), floodplain habitat (p = 0.016), and fecal counts from elephant (p = 0.017) and other wildlife (p = 0.001). Dry season fecal loading by both elephant (p = 0.029) and other wildlife (p = 0.006) was also an important predictor of early wet season E. coli concentrations. Locations of high E. coli concentrations likewise showed close spatial agreement with estimates of wildlife biomass derived from aerial survey data. In contrast to the dry season, wet season bacterial water quality patterns were associated only with TSS (p<0.0001), suggesting storm water and sediment runoff significantly influence E. coli loads. Our data suggest that wildlife populations, and elephants in particular, can significantly modify river water quality patterns. Loss of habitat and limitation of wildlife access to perennial rivers and floodplains in water-restricted regions may increase the impact of species on surface water resources. Our findings have important implications to land use planning in southern Africa’s dryland river ecosystems. PMID:26460613

Towards social autonomous vehicles: Efficient collision avoidance scheme using Richardson's arms race model.

PubMed

Riaz, Faisal; Niazi, Muaz A

2017-01-01

This paper presents the concept of a social autonomous agent to conceptualize such Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), which interacts with other AVs using social manners similar to human behavior. The presented AVs also have the capability of predicting intentions, i.e. mentalizing and copying the actions of each other, i.e. mirroring. Exploratory Agent Based Modeling (EABM) level of the Cognitive Agent Based Computing (CABC) framework has been utilized to design the proposed social agent. Furthermore, to emulate the functionality of mentalizing and mirroring modules of proposed social agent, a tailored mathematical model of the Richardson's arms race model has also been presented. The performance of the proposed social agent has been validated at two levels-firstly it has been simulated using NetLogo, a standard agent-based modeling tool and also, at a practical level using a prototype AV. The simulation results have confirmed that the proposed social agent-based collision avoidance strategy is 78.52% more efficient than Random walk based collision avoidance strategy in congested flock-like topologies. Whereas practical results have confirmed that the proposed scheme can avoid rear end and lateral collisions with the efficiency of 99.876% as compared with the IEEE 802.11n-based existing state of the art mirroring neuron-based collision avoidance scheme.

Towards social autonomous vehicles: Efficient collision avoidance scheme using Richardson’s arms race model

PubMed Central

Niazi, Muaz A.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the concept of a social autonomous agent to conceptualize such Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), which interacts with other AVs using social manners similar to human behavior. The presented AVs also have the capability of predicting intentions, i.e. mentalizing and copying the actions of each other, i.e. mirroring. Exploratory Agent Based Modeling (EABM) level of the Cognitive Agent Based Computing (CABC) framework has been utilized to design the proposed social agent. Furthermore, to emulate the functionality of mentalizing and mirroring modules of proposed social agent, a tailored mathematical model of the Richardson’s arms race model has also been presented. The performance of the proposed social agent has been validated at two levels–firstly it has been simulated using NetLogo, a standard agent-based modeling tool and also, at a practical level using a prototype AV. The simulation results have confirmed that the proposed social agent-based collision avoidance strategy is 78.52% more efficient than Random walk based collision avoidance strategy in congested flock-like topologies. Whereas practical results have confirmed that the proposed scheme can avoid rear end and lateral collisions with the efficiency of 99.876% as compared with the IEEE 802.11n-based existing state of the art mirroring neuron-based collision avoidance scheme. PMID:29040294

Challenges and Alternatives to Sustainable Management of Agriculture and Pastoral Ecosystems in Asian Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, J.

2015-12-01

There is no question that human must produce additional 70% food to feed the new 2.2 billion of people on the planet by 2050, but the question is where to grow the additional food. The demand for the additional food lies not only in producing the basic resources needed to sustain a healthy lifestyle, but also from a changing diet, especially in rapidly developing countries in the dryland regions around the world. It is forecast that this demand for meat will require an additional 0.2 billion tons per year by 2050, which is almost a doubling of present meat consumption. These new demands create mounting pressures on agriculture and pastoral ecosystems and the reported trajectory of warmer and drier climate in the future increases uncertainties in food security, adding further stresses to the already stressed nations in the Asian dryland belt. Different approaches are being either proposed or practiced in the region but the question is whether or not the current practices are sustainable or optimal in addressing the emerging issues. Given the complexity and interplay among the food, water and energy, what are alternatives to ensure a sustainable trajectory of regional development to meet the new food demand? This presentation reviews existing practices and proposes alternative solutions, by specifically examining the trade-offs between different ecosystem services that drylands in Asian may provide. Preliminary analysis suggested that the current trajectory of meat and milk production is likely not on a sustainable pathway.

Ecological surveillance of small mammals at Firing Points 10 and 60, Gyeonggi Province, Republic of Korea, 2001-2005.

PubMed

O'Guinn, Monica L; Klein, Terry A; Lee, John S; Kim, Heung-Chul; Baek, Luck-Ju; Chong, Sung-Tae; Turell, Michael J; Burkett, Douglas A; Schuster, Anthony; Lee, In-Yong; Yi, Suk-Hee; Sames, William J; Song, Ki-Joon; Song, Jin-Won

2008-12-01

Throughout Korea, small mammals are hosts to a number of disease-causing agents that pose a health threat to U.S. and Korean military forces while they conduct field-training exercises. A seasonal rodent-borne disease surveillance program was established at two firing points (FP), FP-10, and FP-60, and conducted over five years from 2001 through 2005 in response to hantavirus cases among U.S. soldiers. The ecology of these sites consisted primarily of tall grasses associated with semi-permanent and temporary water sources (drainage ditches and a small stream) and dry-land agriculture farming. Eight species of rodents and one species of insectivore were collected, including Apodemus agrarius, Micromys minutus, Mus musculus, Rattus norvegicus, Tscherskia triton, Microtus fortis, Myodes regulus, and Crocidura lasiura. The striped field mouse, A. agrarius, (primary reservoir for Hantaan virus, the causative agent of Korean hemorrhagic fever), was the most frequently collected, representing 90.6% of the 1,288 small mammals captured at both sites. Reported herein are the ecological parameters, seasonal population densities, and seasonal population characteristics associated with small mammals collected at two military training sites in the Republic of Korea.

The practice of agent-based model visualization.

PubMed

Dorin, Alan; Geard, Nicholas

2014-01-01

We discuss approaches to agent-based model visualization. Agent-based modeling has its own requirements for visualization, some shared with other forms of simulation software, and some unique to this approach. In particular, agent-based models are typified by complexity, dynamism, nonequilibrium and transient behavior, heterogeneity, and a researcher's interest in both individual- and aggregate-level behavior. These are all traits requiring careful consideration in the design, experimentation, and communication of results. In the case of all but final communication for dissemination, researchers may not make their visualizations public. Hence, the knowledge of how to visualize during these earlier stages is unavailable to the research community in a readily accessible form. Here we explore means by which all phases of agent-based modeling can benefit from visualization, and we provide examples from the available literature and online sources to illustrate key stages and techniques.

Biological soil crusts emit large amounts of NO and HONO affecting the nitrogen cycle in drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamm, Alexandra; Wu, Dianming; Ruckteschler, Nina; Rodríguez-Caballero, Emilio; Steinkamp, Jörg; Meusel, Hannah; Elbert, Wolfgang; Behrendt, Thomas; Sörgel, Matthias; Cheng, Yafang; Crutzen, Paul J.; Su, Hang; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2016-04-01

Dryland systems currently cover ˜40% of the world's land surface and are still expanding as a consequence of human impact and global change. In contrast to that, information on their role in global biochemical processes is limited, probably induced by the presumption that their sparse vegetation cover plays a negligible role in global balances. However, spaces between the sparse shrubs are not bare, but soils are mostly covered by biological soil crusts (biocrusts). These biocrust communities belong to the oldest life forms, resulting from an assembly between soil particles and cyanobacteria, lichens, bryophytes, and algae plus heterotrophic organisms in varying proportions. Depending on the dominating organism group, cyanobacteria-, lichen-, and bryophyte-dominated biocrusts are distinguished. Besides their ability to restrict soil erosion they fix atmospheric carbon and nitrogen, and by doing this they serve as a nutrient source in strongly depleted dryland ecosystems. In this study we show that a fraction of the nitrogen fixed by biocrusts is metabolized and subsequently returned to the atmosphere in the form of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrous acid (HONO). These gases affect the radical formation and oxidizing capacity within the troposphere, thus being of particular interest to atmospheric chemistry. Laboratory measurements using dynamic chamber systems showed that dark cyanobacteria-dominated crusts emitted the largest amounts of NO and HONO, being ˜20 times higher than trace gas fluxes of nearby bare soil. We showed that these nitrogen emissions have a biogenic origin, as emissions of formerly strongly emitting samples almost completely ceased after sterilization. By combining laboratory, field, and satellite measurement data we made a best estimate of global annual emissions amounting to ˜1.1 Tg of NO-N and ˜0.6 Tg of HONO-N from biocrusts. This sum of 1.7 Tg of reactive nitrogen emissions equals ˜20% of the soil release under natural vegetation according to the latest IPCC report. In summary, our measurements show that dryland emissions of nitrogen oxides are largely driven by biocrusts and not by the underlying soil. As precipitation patterns, which influence biocrust activity, are affected by climate change, alterations in global nitrogen oxide emissions are to be expected. Thus, the role of biocrusts in the global cycling of reactive nitrogen needs to be followed and also implemented in regional and global models of biogeochemistry, air chemistry and climate.

A Cybernetic Approach to the Modeling of Agent Communities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truszkowski, Walt; Karlin, Jay

2000-01-01

In an earlier paper [1] examples of agent technology in a NASA context were presented. Both groundbased and space-based applications were addressed. This paper continues the discussion of one aspect of the Goddard Space Flight Center's continuing efforts to develop a community of agents that can support both ground-based and space-based systems autonomy. The paper focuses on an approach to agent-community modeling based on the theory of viable systems developed by Stafford Beer. It gives the status of an initial attempt to capture some of the agent-community behaviors in a viable system context. This paper is expository in nature and focuses on a discussion of the modeling of some of the underlying concepts and infrastructure that will serve as the basis of more detailed investigative work into the behavior of agent communities. The paper is organized as follows. First, a general introduction to agent community requirements is presented. Secondly, a brief introduction to the cybernetic concept of a viable system is given. This concept forms the foundation of the modeling approach. Then the concept of an agent community is modeled in the cybernetic context.

Simulating cancer growth with multiscale agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D; Kerketta, Romica; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S

2015-02-01

There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agent-based model for rural-urban migration: A dynamic consideration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Ning; Ma, Hai-Ying; Khan, M. Junaid

2015-10-01

This paper develops a dynamic agent-based model for rural-urban migration, based on the previous relevant works. The model conforms to the typical dynamic linear multi-agent systems model concerned extensively in systems science, in which the communication network is formulated as a digraph. Simulations reveal that consensus of certain variable could be harmful to the overall stability and should be avoided.

Development of Mechanistic Reasoning and Multilevel Explanations of Ecology in Third Grade Using Agent-Based Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim; Farris, Amy Voss; Satabdi, Basu

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present a third-grade ecology learning environment that integrates two forms of modeling--embodied modeling and agent-based modeling (ABMs)--through the generation of mathematical representations that are common to both forms of modeling. The term "agent" in the context of ABMs indicates individual computational objects…

From Theory to Rural Farms: Testing the Efficacy of the Dryland Development Paradigm of Desertification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, J. F.; Herrick, J.; Huber-Sannwald, E.; Ayarza, M.

2011-12-01

The social and economic systems of humans (H) are inextricably linked with environmental (E) systems. This tight coupling is especially relevant in drylands, where ecosystem goods and services vital to sustaining the livelihoods of human populations are constantly changing over time. The Dryland Development Paradigm (DDP; Reynolds et al. 2007, Science 316, 847-851) was proposed as an integrated framework for dealing with the enormous complexity associated with coupled H-E systems. The DDP consists of five principles: (1) the structure, function and interrelationships that characterize H-E systems are always changing so both H and E factors must always be considered simultaneously; (2) a limited suite of "slow" variables are critical determinants of H-E dynamics; (3) thresholds in both H and E systems are vital: if a key slow variable crosses a threshold this can lead to a different state or condition (a switch in culture resistance to the introduction of new technology such as tractors to plow fields); (4) H-E systems are hierarchical in nature and because of the many cross-scale linkages and feedbacks, adaptation, surprises and self-organization are the norm; and (5) lastly, "solving" land degradation problems cannot be accomplished without drawing upon the firsthand experience and insights (local knowledge) of local stakeholders. For the past 7 years, ARIDnet-AMERICAS, an NSF-supported coordination research network, has applied these five principles via 11 case studies at diverse locations in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico and the United States with the goal to compare and contrast the causes and processes of land degradation and their effects on the balance between the demand for, and supply of, ecosystem services. We present a summary of our initial synthesis. The causal human-environmental processes driving land degradation (e.g., overgrazing, government policies, international markets) are often similar but with differing levels of influence in different locations. Fundamental research knowledge is often limited, especially at multiple scales, and hence local stakeholder knowledge is essential for understanding the complexities of biophysical, social and economic processes and their interactions and feedbacks. Thresholds of H-E variables, while prevalent and essential components to projecting vulnerabilities and critical risks of livelihoods, they are difficult to quantify. We found the DDP to be a robust framework for developing conceptual models of potentially effective, adaptive and sustainable management policies although the extraordinary variability of H-E subsystems pose enormous research, management and policy challenges. We also present our initial attempt to quantify these complex phenomena within the framework of an integrated assessment model (ARIDnet-IAM) that focuses on bridging development science to ecosystem services and sustainability of human livelihoods in global drylands.

Agent based reasoning for the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kononovicius, A.; Gontis, V.

2012-02-01

We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financial markets. The agent based model providing matching macroscopic description serves as a microscopic reasoning of the earlier proposed stochastic model exhibiting power law statistics.

Going beyond the unitary curve: incorporating richer cognition into agent-based water resources models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kock, B. E.

2008-12-01

The increased availability and understanding of agent-based modeling technology and techniques provides a unique opportunity for water resources modelers, allowing them to go beyond traditional behavioral approaches from neoclassical economics, and add rich cognition to social-hydrological models. Agent-based models provide for an individual focus, and the easier and more realistic incorporation of learning, memory and other mechanisms for increased cognitive sophistication. We are in an age of global change impacting complex water resources systems, and social responses are increasingly recognized as fundamentally adaptive and emergent. In consideration of this, water resources models and modelers need to better address social dynamics in a manner beyond the capabilities of neoclassical economics theory and practice. However, going beyond the unitary curve requires unique levels of engagement with stakeholders, both to elicit the richer knowledge necessary for structuring and parameterizing agent-based models, but also to make sure such models are appropriately used. With the aim of encouraging epistemological and methodological convergence in the agent-based modeling of water resources, we have developed a water resources-specific cognitive model and an associated collaborative modeling process. Our cognitive model emphasizes efficiency in architecture and operation, and capacity to adapt to different application contexts. We describe a current application of this cognitive model and modeling process in the Arkansas Basin of Colorado. In particular, we highlight the potential benefits of, and challenges to, using more sophisticated cognitive models in agent-based water resources models.

Multi-issue Agent Negotiation Based on Fairness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Baohe; Zheng, Sue; Wu, Hong

Agent-based e-commerce service has become a hotspot now. How to make the agent negotiation process quickly and high-efficiently is the main research direction of this area. In the multi-issue model, MAUT(Multi-attribute Utility Theory) or its derived theory usually consider little about the fairness of both negotiators. This work presents a general model of agent negotiation which considered the satisfaction of both negotiators via autonomous learning. The model can evaluate offers from the opponent agent based on the satisfaction degree, learn online to get the opponent's knowledge from interactive instances of history and negotiation of this time, make concessions dynamically based on fair object. Through building the optimal negotiation model, the bilateral negotiation achieved a higher efficiency and fairer deal.

Developing ecological fingerprints for ecoclimatic zones in Australian drylands to inform land restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Escribano Velasco, Paula; Garcia, Monica

2017-04-01

With more than 25% of the global surface affected by land degradation processes, there is an urgent need to restore disturbed ecosystems worldwide. Increased arid conditions in projected scenarios of climate change need to be acknowledged in restoration programs; this is particularly critical in dryland ecosystems where significant changes are expected in their structure and functioning worldwide. Australia is the driest inhabited continent in the world with 70% of the country classified as arid or semi-arid (average annual rainfall of 250 mm or less). Moreover, Australia has undergone massive land-use changes in the last decades and the landscape is highly degraded and fragmented. These conditions position the country as one of the climate change vulnerable "hot spots" globally. In this research, we aim to evaluate a broad range of ecological indicators in natural Australian dryland ecosystems (both disturbed and undisturbed) that allow us to i) identify those areas most vulnerable to potential and environmental changes and ii) tracking the effectiveness of restoration practices. The most relevant indicators will be selected to inform decision-making in the design of management strategies to address the potential negative effects of climate change and further land degradation. These ecological indicators will be measured in 10 Australian ecoclimatic units that combine the main vegetation functional types and climate zones based on the aridity index as follows: hum¬mock grasslands in the hyper-arid zone; acacia shrublands, hummock grasslands and tussock grasslands in the arid zone; chenopod shrubs, hummock grasslands, mallee woodlands and tussock grasslands in the semi-arid zone and eucalyptus and acacia forest in the dry sub-humid zone. A set of fingerprints will be created to diagnose each ecoclimatic unit using a wide range of ecological indicators related with the ecosystem's composition, structure and function. We will combine novel technologies and methodologies on remote sensing data acquisition of the land surface (e.g. high spatial resolution hyperspectral imaging), satellite and climate time series, biophyisical models and field measurements of soil physicochemical and microbiological properties, plant ecophysiological parameters and biogeochemical processes. This multidisciplinary approach will allow us to establish the fingerprints more sensitive to degradation processes and recovery. The outcome of this research will provide a valuable tool to stakeholders and managers on conserva¬tion and restoration that will allow integrating adequate measures of climate change adaptation and mitigation in environmental planning.

Pain expressiveness and altruistic behavior: an exploration using agent-based modeling.

PubMed

de C Williams, Amanda C; Gallagher, Elizabeth; Fidalgo, Antonio R; Bentley, Peter J

2016-03-01

Predictions which invoke evolutionary mechanisms are hard to test. Agent-based modeling in artificial life offers a way to simulate behaviors and interactions in specific physical or social environments over many generations. The outcomes have implications for understanding adaptive value of behaviors in context. Pain-related behavior in animals is communicated to other animals that might protect or help, or might exploit or predate. An agent-based model simulated the effects of displaying or not displaying pain (expresser/nonexpresser strategies) when injured and of helping, ignoring, or exploiting another in pain (altruistic/nonaltruistic/selfish strategies). Agents modeled in MATLAB interacted at random while foraging (gaining energy); random injury interrupted foraging for a fixed time unless help from an altruistic agent, who paid an energy cost, speeded recovery. Environmental and social conditions also varied, and each model ran for 10,000 iterations. Findings were meaningful in that, in general, contingencies that evident from experimental work with a variety of mammals, over a few interactions, were replicated in the agent-based model after selection pressure over many generations. More energy-demanding expression of pain reduced its frequency in successive generations, and increasing injury frequency resulted in fewer expressers and altruists. Allowing exploitation of injured agents decreased expression of pain to near zero, but altruists remained. Decreasing costs or increasing benefits of helping hardly changed its frequency, whereas increasing interaction rate between injured agents and helpers diminished the benefits to both. Agent-based modeling allows simulation of complex behaviors and environmental pressures over evolutionary time.

Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

2005-12-01

We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such modelsmore » do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3« less

Patterns of Use of an Agent-Based Model and a System Dynamics Model: The Application of Patterns of Use and the Impacts on Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Kate; Reimann, Peter

2010-01-01

A classification system that was developed for the use of agent-based models was applied to strategies used by school-aged students to interrogate an agent-based model and a system dynamics model. These were compared, and relationships between learning outcomes and the strategies used were also analysed. It was found that the classification system…

Research on monocentric model of urbanization by agent-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Ling; Yang, Kaizhong

2008-10-01

Over the past years, GIS have been widely used for modeling urbanization from a variety of perspectives such as digital terrain representation and overlay analysis using cell-based data platform. Similarly, simulation of urban dynamics has been achieved with the use of Cellular Automata. In contrast to these approaches, agent-based simulation provides a much more powerful set of tools. This allows researchers to set up a counterpart for real environmental and urban systems in computer for experimentation and scenario analysis. This Paper basically reviews the research on the economic mechanism of urbanization and an agent-based monocentric model is setup for further understanding the urbanization process and mechanism in China. We build an endogenous growth model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development by using agent-based simulation. It simulates the migration decisions of two main types of agents, namely rural and urban households between rural and urban area. The model contains multiple economic interactions that are crucial in understanding urbanization and industrial process in China. These adaptive agents can adjust their supply and demand according to the market situation by a learning algorithm. The simulation result shows this agent-based urban model is able to perform the regeneration and to produce likely-to-occur projections of reality.

Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine; Wallace, Cynthia; Webb, Robert H.

2016-01-01

Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R2 = 0.83 and 2010: R2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

The effect of trees on preferential flow and soil infiltrability in an agroforestry parkland in semiarid Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Bargués Tobella, A; Reese, H; Almaw, A; Bayala, J; Malmer, A; Laudon, H; Ilstedt, U

2014-04-01

Water scarcity constrains the livelihoods of millions of people in tropical drylands. Tree planting in these environments is generally discouraged due to the large water consumption by trees, but this view may neglect their potential positive impacts on water availability. The effect of trees on soil hydraulic properties linked to groundwater recharge is poorly understood. In this study, we performed 18 rainfall simulations and tracer experiments in an agroforestry parkland in Burkina Faso to investigate the effect of trees and associated termite mounds on soil infiltrability and preferential flow. The sampling points were distributed in transects each consisting of three positions: (i) under a single tree, (ii) in the middle of an open area, and (iii) under a tree associated with a termite mound. The degree of preferential flow was quantified through parameters based on the dye infiltration patterns, which were analyzed using image analysis of photographs. Our results show that the degree of preferential flow was highest under trees associated with termite mounds, intermediate under single trees, and minimal in the open areas. Tree density also had an influence on the degree of preferential flow, with small open areas having more preferential flow than large ones. Soil infiltrability was higher under single trees than in the open areas or under trees associated with a termite mound. The findings from this study demonstrate that trees have a positive impact on soil hydraulic properties influencing groundwater recharge, and thus such effects must be considered when evaluating the impact of trees on water resources in drylands. Trees in dryland landscapes increase soil infiltrability and preferential flow Termite mounds in association with trees further enhance preferential flow.

The effect of trees on preferential flow and soil infiltrability in an agroforestry parkland in semiarid Burkina Faso

PubMed Central

Bargués Tobella, A; Reese, H; Almaw, A; Bayala, J; Malmer, A; Laudon, H; Ilstedt, U

2014-01-01

Water scarcity constrains the livelihoods of millions of people in tropical drylands. Tree planting in these environments is generally discouraged due to the large water consumption by trees, but this view may neglect their potential positive impacts on water availability. The effect of trees on soil hydraulic properties linked to groundwater recharge is poorly understood. In this study, we performed 18 rainfall simulations and tracer experiments in an agroforestry parkland in Burkina Faso to investigate the effect of trees and associated termite mounds on soil infiltrability and preferential flow. The sampling points were distributed in transects each consisting of three positions: (i) under a single tree, (ii) in the middle of an open area, and (iii) under a tree associated with a termite mound. The degree of preferential flow was quantified through parameters based on the dye infiltration patterns, which were analyzed using image analysis of photographs. Our results show that the degree of preferential flow was highest under trees associated with termite mounds, intermediate under single trees, and minimal in the open areas. Tree density also had an influence on the degree of preferential flow, with small open areas having more preferential flow than large ones. Soil infiltrability was higher under single trees than in the open areas or under trees associated with a termite mound. The findings from this study demonstrate that trees have a positive impact on soil hydraulic properties influencing groundwater recharge, and thus such effects must be considered when evaluating the impact of trees on water resources in drylands. Key Points Trees in dryland landscapes increase soil infiltrability and preferential flow Termite mounds in association with trees further enhance preferential flow PMID:25641996

A Coupled Simulation Architecture for Agent-Based/Geohydrological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaxa-Rozen, M.

2016-12-01

The quantitative modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interplay between social and environmental processes, and their impact on emergent system dynamics. However, such models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both of the underlying subsystems. For instance, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater management studies can be made more useful by directly accounting for the hydrological processes which drive environmental outcomes. Conversely, conventional environmental models can benefit from an agent-based depiction of the feedbacks and heuristics which influence the decisions of groundwater users. From this perspective, this work describes a Python-based software architecture which couples the popular NetLogo agent-based platform with the MODFLOW/SEAWAT geohydrological modelling environment. This approach enables users to implement agent-based models in NetLogo's user-friendly platform, while benefiting from the full capabilities of MODFLOW/SEAWAT packages or reusing existing geohydrological models. The software architecture is based on the pyNetLogo connector, which provides an interface between the NetLogo agent-based modelling software and the Python programming language. This functionality is then extended and combined with Python's object-oriented features, to design a simulation architecture which couples NetLogo with MODFLOW/SEAWAT through the FloPy library (Bakker et al., 2016). The Python programming language also provides access to a range of external packages which can be used for testing and analysing the coupled models, which is illustrated for an application of Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES).

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach.

PubMed

Laghari, Samreen; Niazi, Muaz A

2016-01-01

Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach.

Derivation of Continuum Models from An Agent-based Cancer Model: Optimization and Sensitivity Analysis.

PubMed

Voulgarelis, Dimitrios; Velayudhan, Ajoy; Smith, Frank

2017-01-01

Agent-based models provide a formidable tool for exploring complex and emergent behaviour of biological systems as well as accurate results but with the drawback of needing a lot of computational power and time for subsequent analysis. On the other hand, equation-based models can more easily be used for complex analysis in a much shorter timescale. This paper formulates an ordinary differential equations and stochastic differential equations model to capture the behaviour of an existing agent-based model of tumour cell reprogramming and applies it to optimization of possible treatment as well as dosage sensitivity analysis. For certain values of the parameter space a close match between the equation-based and agent-based models is achieved. The need for division of labour between the two approaches is explored. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Satellite passive microwaves for monitoring deforestation and drought-induced carbon losses in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, M.; Wigneron, J. P.; Chave, J.; Tagesson, T.; Penuelas, J.; Ciais, P.; Rasmussen, K.; Tian, F.; Mbow, C.; Al-Yaari, A.; Rodriguez-Fernandez, N.; Zhang, W.; Kerr, Y. H.; Tucker, C. J.; Mialon, A.; Verger, A.; Fensholt, R.

2017-12-01

The African continent is facing one of the driest periods in the past three decades and continuing deforestation. These disturbances threaten vegetation carbon (C) stocks and highlight the need for an operational tool for monitoring carbon stock dynamics. Knowledge of the amount, distribution, and turnover of carbon in African vegetation is crucial for understanding the effects of human pressure and climate change, but the shortcomings of optical and radar satellite products and the lack of systematic field inventories have led to considerable uncertainty in documenting patterns and dynamics of carbon stocks, in particular for drylands. Static carbon maps have been developed, but the temporal dynamics of carbon stocks cannot be derived from the benchmark maps, impeding timely, repeated, and reliable carbon assessments. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission launched in 2009 was the first passive microwave-based satellite system operating at L-band (1.4 GHz) frequency. The low frequencies allow the satellite to sense deep within the canopy layer with less influence by the green non-woody plant components. The vegetation optical depth (VOD) derived from SMOS, henceforth L-VOD, is thus less sensitive to saturation effects, marking an important step forward in the monitoring of carbon as a natural resource. In this study, we apply for the first time L-VOD to quantify the inter-annual dynamics of aboveground carbon stocks for the period 2010-2016. We use this new technique to document patterns of carbon gains and losses in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus of dryland response to recent dry years. Results show that drylands lost carbon at a rate of -0.06 Pg C y-1 associated with drying trends, while humid areas lost only -0.02 Pg C y-1. These trends reflect a high inter-annual variability with a very wet (2011) and a very dry year (2016) associated with carbon gains and losses respectively. This study demonstrates, first, the operational applicability of L-VOD to monitor the dynamics of carbon loss and gain due to climate variations and deforestation, and second, the importance of the highly dynamic and drought prone carbon pool of dryland savannahs for the global carbon balance, despite the relatively low carbon stock per unit area.

Little by Little Does the Trick: Design and Construction of a Discrete Event Agent-Based Simulation Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

model. Finally, we build a small agent-based model using the component architecture to demonstrate the library’s functionality. 15. NUMBER OF...and a Behavioral model. Finally, we build a small agent-based model using the component architecture to demonstrate the library’s functionality...prototypes an architectural design which is generalizable, reusable, and extensible. We have created an initial set of model elements that demonstrate

The fractional volatility model: An agent-based interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilela Mendes, R.

2008-06-01

Based on the criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are reviewed and extended to account for leverage effects. Using agent-based models, one tries to find which agent strategies and (or) properties of the financial institutions might be responsible for the features of the fractional volatility model.

A place for agent-based models. Comment on "Statistical physics of crime: A review" by M.R. D'Orsogna and M. Perc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbaro, Alethea

2015-03-01

Agent-based models have been widely applied in theoretical ecology to explain migrations and other collective animal movements [2,5,8]. As D'Orsogna and Perc have expertly highlighted in [6], the recent emergence of crime modeling has opened another interesting avenue for mathematical investigation. The area of crime modeling is particularly suited to agent-based models, because these models offer a great deal of flexibility within the model and also ease of communication among criminologist, law enforcement and modelers.

Modelling the biophysical and socio-economic potential of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) in the Cabo Verde drylands: The PESERA-DESMICE approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, Isaurinda; Irvine, Brian; Fleskens, Luuk; Geissen, Violette; Ritsema, Coen

2015-04-01

Rainfall variability, the occurrence of extreme drought and historic land management practice have been recognised as contributing to serious environmental impact in Cabo Verde. Investment in conservation measures has become visible throughout the landscape. Despite this the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of the conservation measures have been poorly assessed and documented. As such a concerted approach based on the DESIRE project continues to consult stackholders and carry out field trials for selected conservation technologies. Recent field trials have demonstrated the potential of conservation technologies but have also demonstrated that yield variability between sites and between years is significant. This variability appears to be driven by soil and rainfall characteristics However, where detailed field studies have only run for a limited period they have not as yet encountered the full range of climatic variability; thus a modelling approach is considered to capture a greater range of climatic conditions. The PESERA-DESMICE model is adopted which considers the biophysical and social economic benefits of the conservation technologies against a local baseline condition. PESERA is adopted as climate is implicitly considered in the model and, where appropriate, in-situ conservation measures are considered as an annual input to the soil. The DESMICE component of the model considers the suitability of the conservation measures and their costs and benefits in terms of environmental conditions and market access. Historic rainfall statistics are calculated from field measurements in the Ribeira Seca catchment. These statistics are used to generate a series of 50 year rainfall realisations to capture a fuller range of the climatic conditions. Each realisation provides a unique time-series of rainfall and through modelling can provide a simulated time-series of crop yield. Additional realisations and model simulations add to an envelope of the potential crop yield and cost-benefit relations. The development of such envelopes help express the agricultural risk associated with climate variability and the potential of the conservation measures to absorb the risk. Thus, highlighting the uncertainty of a given crop yield being achieved in any particular year. Such information that can directly inform or influence the adoption of conservation measures under the climatic variability of the Cabo Verde drylands.

Observations of net soil exchange of CO2 in a dryland show experimental warming increases carbon losses in biocrust soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Reed, Sasha C.; Grote, Ed; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

Many arid and semiarid ecosystems have soils covered with well-developed biological soil crust communities (biocrusts) made up of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface. These communities are a fundamental component of dryland ecosystems, and are critical to dryland carbon (C) cycling. To examine the effects of warming temperatures on soil C balance in a dryland ecosystem, we used infrared heaters to warm biocrust-dominated soils to 2 °C above control conditions at a field site on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We monitored net soil exchange (NSE) of CO2 every hour for 21 months using automated flux chambers (5 control and 5 warmed chambers), which included the CO2 fluxes of the biocrusts and the soil beneath them. We observed measurable photosynthesis in biocrust soils on 12 % of measurement days, which correlated well with precipitation events and soil wet-up. These days included several snow events, providing what we believe to be the first evidence of substantial photosynthesis underneath snow by biocrust organisms in drylands. Overall, biocrust soils in both control and warmed plots were net CO2 sources to the atmosphere, with control plots losing 62 ± 8 g C m−2 (mean ± SE) over the first year of measurement and warmed plots losing 74 ± 9 g C m−2. Between control and warmed plots, the difference in soil C loss was uncertain over the course of the entire year due to large and variable rates in spring, but on days during which soils were wet and crusts were actively photosynthesizing, biocrusts that were warmed by 2 °C had a substantially more negative C balance (i.e., biocrust soils took up less C and/or lost more C in warmed plots). Taken together, our data suggest a substantial risk of increased C loss from biocrust soils with higher future temperatures, and highlight a robust capacity to predict CO2 exchange in biocrust soils using easily measured environmental parameters.

High precipitation and seeded species competition reduce seeded shrub establishment during dryland restoration.

PubMed

Rinella, Matthew J; Hammond, Darcy H; Bryant, Ana-Elisa M; Kozar, Brian J

2015-06-01

Drylands comprise 40% of Earth's land mass and are critical to food security, carbon sequestration, and threatened and endangered wildlife. Exotic weed invasions, overgrazing, energy extraction, and other factors have degraded many drylands, and this has placed an increased emphasis on dryland restoration. The increased restoration focus has generated a wealth of experience, innovations and empirical data, yet the goal of restoring diverse, native, dryland plant assemblages composed of grasses, forbs, and shrubs has generally proven beyond reach. Of particular concern are shrubs, which often fail to establish or establish at trivially low densities. We used data from two Great Plains, USA coal mines to explore factors regulating shrub establishment. Our predictor data related to weather and restoration (e.g., seed rates, rock cover) variables, and our response data described shrub abundances on fields of the mines. We found that seeded non-shrubs, especially grasses, formed an important competitive barrier to shrub establishment: With every one standard deviation increase in non-shrub seed rate, the probability shrubs were present decreased ~0.1 and shrub cover decreased ~35%. Since new fields were seeded almost every year for > 20 years, the data also provided a unique opportunity to explore effects of stochastic drivers (i.e., precipitation, year effects). With every one standard deviation increase in precipitation the first growing season following seeding, the probability shrubs were present decreased ~0.07 and shrub cover decreased ~47%. High precipitation appeared to harm shrubs by increasing grass growth/competition. Also, weak evidence suggested shrub establishment was better in rockier fields where grass abundance/competition was lower. Multiple lines of evidence suggest reducing grass seed rates below levels typically used in Great Plains restoration would benefit shrubs without substantially impacting grass stand development over the long term. We used Bayesian statistics to estimate effects of seed rates and other restoration predictors probabilistically to allow knowledge of the predictors' effects to be refined through time in an adaptive management framework. We believe this framework could improve restoration planning in a variety of systems where restoration outcomes remain highly uncertain and ongoing restoration efforts are continually providing new data of value for reducing the uncertainty.

Long-Term Monitoring of Rainfed Wheat Yield and Soil Water at the Loess Plateau Reveals Low Water Use Efficiency

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Chi, Baoliang; Oenema, Oene

2013-01-01

Increasing crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE) in dryland farming requires a quantitative understanding of relationships between crop yield and the water balance over many years. Here, we report on a long-term dryland monitoring site at the Loess Plateau, Shanxi, China, where winter wheat was grown for 30 consecutive years and soil water content (0–200 cm) was measured every 10 days. The monitoring data were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model and then to analyse the components of the water balance. There was a strong positive relationship between total available water and mean cereal yield. However, only one-third of the available water was actually used by the winter wheat for crop transpiration. The remaining two-thirds were lost by soil evaporation, of which 40 and 60% was lost during the growing and fallow seasons, respectively. Wheat yields ranged from 0.6 to 3.9 ton/ha and WUE from 0.3 to 0.9 kg/m3. Results of model experiments suggest that minimizing soil evaporation via straw mulch or plastic film covers could potentially double wheat yields and WUE. We conclude that the relatively low wheat yields and low WUE were mainly related to (i) limited rainfall, (ii) low soil water storage during fallow season due to large soil evaporation, and (iii) poor synchronisation of the wheat growing season to the rain season. The model experiments suggest significant potential for increased yields and WUE. PMID:24302987

Multiagent intelligent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Lee S.; Dean, Christopher; Lehman, Lynn A.

2003-09-01

This paper will discuss a simulation approach based upon a family of agent-based models. As the demands placed upon simulation technology by such applications as Effects Based Operations (EBO), evaluations of indicators and warnings surrounding homeland defense and commercial demands such financial risk management current single thread based simulations will continue to show serious deficiencies. The types of "what if" analysis required to support these types of applications, demand rapidly re-configurable approaches capable of aggregating large models incorporating multiple viewpoints. The use of agent technology promises to provide a broad spectrum of models incorporating differing viewpoints through a synthesis of a collection of models. Each model would provide estimates to the overall scenario based upon their particular measure or aspect. An agent framework, denoted as the "family" would provide a common ontology in support of differing aspects of the scenario. This approach permits the future of modeling to change from viewing the problem as a single thread simulation, to take into account multiple viewpoints from different models. Even as models are updated or replaced the agent approach permits rapid inclusion in new or modified simulations. In this approach a variety of low and high-resolution information and its synthesis requires a family of models. Each agent "publishes" its support for a given measure and each model provides their own estimates on the scenario based upon their particular measure or aspect. If more than one agent provides the same measure (e.g. cognitive) then the results from these agents are combined to form an aggregate measure response. The objective would be to inform and help calibrate a qualitative model, rather than merely to present highly aggregated statistical information. As each result is processed, the next action can then be determined. This is done by a top-level decision system that communicates to the family at the ontology level without any specific understanding of the processes (or model) behind each agent. The increasingly complex demands upon simulation for the necessity to incorporate the breadth and depth of influencing factors makes a family of agent based models a promising solution. This paper will discuss that solution with syntax and semantics necessary to support the approach.

Gauging leaf-level contributions to landscape-level water loss within a Western US dryland fores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, P.; Potts, D. L.; Minor, R. L.; Hamerlynck, E. P.; Sutter, L., Jr.; Barron-Gafford, G.

2017-12-01

Western US forests represent a large constituent of the North American water and carbon cycles, yet the primary controls on water loss from these ecosystems remains unknown. In dryland forests, such as those found in the Southwestern US, water availability is key to ecosystem function, and the timing and magnitude of water loss can have lasting effects on the health of these communities. One poorly defined part of the water balance in these forests is the partitioning of evapotranspiration (ET) into evaporation (E; blue flow) to transpiration (T; green flow). A study of water fluxes at multiple scales in a semiarid montane forest in Southern Arizona speaks to the partitioning of these two water flows. Within the footprint of an eddy covariance system, which estimates ecosystem ET, we have examined the impacts of variation in climate, species makeup, and topographic position on E and T. This was done using leaf-level measures of T, pedon-scale measures of E, and whole-tree water loss by way of sap flux sensors. Where available, we have examined E, T, and ET fluxes across multiple seasons and years of highly variable precipitation records. Understanding the partitioning of ET is crucial, considering that projected changes to dryland ecosystems include longer periods of drought separated by heavier precipitation events. At a moment when potential impacts of changing climate on dryland structure and function are poorly understood, a stronger comprehension of these blue and green water flows is necessary to forecast the productivity of Western US forests into the future.

Desert dust hazards: A global review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, N. J.

2017-02-01

Dust storms originate in many of the world's drylands and frequently present hazards to human society, both within the drylands themselves but also outside drylands due to long-range transport of aeolian sediments. Major sources of desert dust include the Sahara, the Middle East, central and eastern Asia, and parts of Australia, but dust-raising occurs all across the global drylands and, on occasion, beyond. Dust storms occur throughout the year and they vary in frequency and intensity over a number of timescales. Long-range transport of desert dust typically takes place along seasonal transport paths. Desert dust hazards are here reviewed according to the three phases of the wind erosion system: where dust is entrained, during the transport phase, and on deposition. This paper presents a synthesis of these hazards. It draws on empirical examples in physical geography, medical geology and geomorphology to discuss case studies from all over the world and in various fields. These include accelerated soil erosion in agricultural zones - where dust storms represent a severe form of accelerated soil erosion - the health effects of air pollution caused by desert aerosols via their physical, chemical and biological properties, transport accidents caused by poor visibility during desert dust events, and impacts on electricity generation and distribution. Given the importance of desert dust as a hazard to human societies, it is surprising to note that there have been relatively few attempts to assess their impact in economic terms. Existing studies in this regard are also reviewed, but the wide range of impacts discussed in this paper indicates that desert dust storms deserve more attention in this respect.

Characterising the dynamics of surface water-groundwater interactions in intermittent and ephemeral streams using streambed thermal signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rau, Gabriel C.; Halloran, Landon J. S.; Cuthbert, Mark O.; Andersen, Martin S.; Acworth, R. Ian; Tellam, John H.

2017-09-01

Ephemeral and intermittent flow in dryland stream channels infiltrates into sediments, replenishes groundwater resources and underpins riparian ecosystems. However, the spatiotemporal complexity of the transitory flow processes that occur beneath such stream channels are poorly observed and understood. We develop a new approach to characterise the dynamics of surface water-groundwater interactions in dryland streams using pairs of temperature records measured at different depths within the streambed. The approach exploits the fact that the downward propagation of the diel temperature fluctuation from the surface depends on the sediment thermal diffusivity. This is controlled by time-varying fractions of air and water contained in streambed sediments causing a contrast in thermal properties. We demonstrate the usefulness of this method with multi-level temperature and pressure records of a flow event acquired using 12 streambed arrays deployed along a ∼ 12 km dryland channel section. Thermal signatures clearly indicate the presence of water and characterise the vertical flow component as well as the occurrence of horizontal hyporheic flow. We jointly interpret thermal signatures as well as surface and groundwater levels to distinguish four different hydrological regimes: [A] dry channel, [B] surface run-off, [C] pool-riffle sequence, and [D] isolated pools. The occurrence and duration of the regimes depends on the rate at which the infiltrated water redistributes in the subsurface which, in turn, is controlled by the hydraulic properties of the variably saturated sediment. Our results have significant implications for understanding how transitory flows recharge alluvial sediments, influence water quality and underpin dryland ecosystems.

Combining Sustainable Land Management Technologies to Combat Land Degradation and Improve Rural Livelihoods in Semi-arid Lands in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mganga, K. Z.; Musimba, N. K. R.; Nyariki, D. M.

2015-12-01

Drylands occupy more than 80 % of Kenya's total land mass and contribute immensely to the national economy and society through agriculture, livestock production, tourism, and wild product harvesting. Dryland ecosystems are areas of high climate variability making them vulnerable to the threats of land degradation. Consequently, agropastoralists inhabiting these ecosystems develop mechanisms and technologies to cope with the impacts of climate variability. This study is aimed to; (1) determine what agropastoralists inhabiting a semi-arid ecosystem in Kenya attribute to be the causes and indicators of land degradation, (2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to combat land degradation, and (3) identify the factors that influence the choice of these SLM technologies. Vegetation change from preferred indigenous forage grass species to woody vegetation was cited as the main indicator of land degradation. Land degradation was attributed to recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall, overgrazing, and unsustainable harvesting of trees for fuelwood production. However, despite the challenges posed by climate variability and recurrent droughts, the local community is engaging in simple SLM technologies including grass reseeding, rainwater harvesting and soil conservation, and dryland agroforestry as a holistic approach combating land degradation and improving their rural livelihoods. The choice of these SLM technologies was mainly driven by their additional benefits to combating land degradation. In conclusion, promoting such simple SLM technologies can help reverse the land degradation trend, improve agricultural production, food security including access to food, and subsequently improve livelihoods of communities inhabiting dryland ecosystems.

Combining Sustainable Land Management Technologies to Combat Land Degradation and Improve Rural Livelihoods in Semi-arid Lands in Kenya.

PubMed

Mganga, K Z; Musimba, N K R; Nyariki, D M

2015-12-01

Drylands occupy more than 80% of Kenya's total land mass and contribute immensely to the national economy and society through agriculture, livestock production, tourism, and wild product harvesting. Dryland ecosystems are areas of high climate variability making them vulnerable to the threats of land degradation. Consequently, agropastoralists inhabiting these ecosystems develop mechanisms and technologies to cope with the impacts of climate variability. This study is aimed to; (1) determine what agropastoralists inhabiting a semi-arid ecosystem in Kenya attribute to be the causes and indicators of land degradation, (2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to combat land degradation, and (3) identify the factors that influence the choice of these SLM technologies. Vegetation change from preferred indigenous forage grass species to woody vegetation was cited as the main indicator of land degradation. Land degradation was attributed to recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall, overgrazing, and unsustainable harvesting of trees for fuelwood production. However, despite the challenges posed by climate variability and recurrent droughts, the local community is engaging in simple SLM technologies including grass reseeding, rainwater harvesting and soil conservation, and dryland agroforestry as a holistic approach combating land degradation and improving their rural livelihoods. The choice of these SLM technologies was mainly driven by their additional benefits to combating land degradation. In conclusion, promoting such simple SLM technologies can help reverse the land degradation trend, improve agricultural production, food security including access to food, and subsequently improve livelihoods of communities inhabiting dryland ecosystems.

Water addition regulates the metabolic activity of ammonia oxidizers responding to environmental perturbations in dry subhumid ecosystems.

PubMed

Hu, Hang-Wei; Macdonald, Catriona A; Trivedi, Pankaj; Holmes, Bronwyn; Bodrossy, Levente; He, Ji-Zheng; Singh, Brajesh K

2015-02-01

Terrestrial arid and semi-arid ecosystems (drylands) constitute about 41% of the Earth's land surface and are predicted to experience increasing fluctuations in water and nitrogen availability. Mounting evidence has confirmed the significant importance of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) in nitrification, plant nitrogen availability and atmospheric N2 O emissions, but their responses to environmental perturbations in drylands remain largely unknown. Here we evaluate how the factorial combinations of irrigation and fertilization in forests and land-use change from grassland to forest affects the dynamics of AOA and AOB following a 6-year dryland field study. Potential nitrification rates and AOA and AOB abundances were significantly higher in the irrigated plots, accompanied by considerable changes in community compositions, but their responses to fertilization alone were not significant. DNA-stable isotope probing results showed increased (13) CO2 incorporation into the amoA gene of AOA, but not of AOB, in plots receiving water addition, coupled with significantly higher net mineralization and nitrification rates. High-throughput microarray analysis revealed that active AOA assemblages belonging to Nitrosopumilus and Nitrosotalea were increasingly labelled by (13) CO2 following irrigation. However, no obvious effects of land-use changes on nitrification rates or metabolic activity of AOA and AOB could be observed under dry conditions. We provide evidence that water addition had more important roles than nitrogen fertilization in influencing the autotrophic nitrification in dryland ecosystems, and AOA are increasingly involved in ammonia oxidation when dry soils become wetted. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiscale Modeling of Angiogenesis and Predictive Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillay, Samara; Byrne, Helen; Maini, Philip

Tumors induce the growth of new blood vessels from existing vasculature through angiogenesis. Using an agent-based approach, we model the behavior of individual endothelial cells during angiogenesis. We incorporate crowding effects through volume exclusion, motility of cells through biased random walks, and include birth and death-like processes. We use the transition probabilities associated with the discrete model and a discrete conservation equation for cell occupancy to determine collective cell behavior, in terms of partial differential equations (PDEs). We derive three PDE models incorporating single, multi-species and no volume exclusion. By fitting the parameters in our PDE models and other well-established continuum models to agent-based simulations during a specific time period, and then comparing the outputs from the PDE models and agent-based model at later times, we aim to determine how well the PDE models predict the future behavior of the agent-based model. We also determine whether predictions differ across PDE models and the significance of those differences. This may impact drug development strategies based on PDE models.

Development and verification of an agent-based model of opinion leadership.

PubMed

Anderson, Christine A; Titler, Marita G

2014-09-27

The use of opinion leaders is a strategy used to speed the process of translating research into practice. Much is still unknown about opinion leader attributes and activities and the context in which they are most effective. Agent-based modeling is a methodological tool that enables demonstration of the interactive and dynamic effects of individuals and their behaviors on other individuals in the environment. The purpose of this study was to develop and test an agent-based model of opinion leadership. The details of the design and verification of the model are presented. The agent-based model was developed by using a software development platform to translate an underlying conceptual model of opinion leadership into a computer model. Individual agent attributes (for example, motives and credibility) and behaviors (seeking or providing an opinion) were specified as variables in the model in the context of a fictitious patient care unit. The verification process was designed to test whether or not the agent-based model was capable of reproducing the conditions of the preliminary conceptual model. The verification methods included iterative programmatic testing ('debugging') and exploratory analysis of simulated data obtained from execution of the model. The simulation tests included a parameter sweep, in which the model input variables were adjusted systematically followed by an individual time series experiment. Statistical analysis of model output for the 288 possible simulation scenarios in the parameter sweep revealed that the agent-based model was performing, consistent with the posited relationships in the underlying model. Nurse opinion leaders act on the strength of their beliefs and as a result, become an opinion resource for their uncertain colleagues, depending on their perceived credibility. Over time, some nurses consistently act as this type of resource and have the potential to emerge as opinion leaders in a context where uncertainty exists. The development and testing of agent-based models is an iterative process. The opinion leader model presented here provides a basic structure for continued model development, ongoing verification, and the establishment of validation procedures, including empirical data collection.

Dryland ecosystem responses to precipitation extremes and wildfire at a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.

2017-12-01

Climate is becoming increasingly more variable due to global environmental change, which is evidenced by fewer, but more extreme precipitation events, changes in precipitation seasonality, and longer, higher severity droughts. These changes, combined with a rising incidence of wildfire, have the potential to strongly impact net primary production (NPP) and key biogeochemical cycles, particularly in dryland ecosystems where NPP is sequentially limited by water and nutrient availability. Here we utilize a ten-year dataset from an ongoing long-term field experiment established in 2007 in which we experimentally altered monsoon rainfall variability to examine how our manipulations, along with naturally occurring events, affect NPP and associated biogeochemical cycles in a semi-arid grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Using long-term regional averages, we identified extremely wet monsoon years (242.8 mm, 2013), and extremely dry monsoon years (86.0 mm, 2011; 80.0 mm, 2015) and water years (117.0 mm, 2011). We examined how changes in precipitation variability and extreme events affected ecosystem processes and function particularly in the context of ecosystem recovery following a 2009 wildfire. Response variables included above- and below-ground plant biomass (ANPP & BNPP) and abundance, soil nitrogen availability, and soil CO2 efflux. Mean ANPP ranged from 3.6 g m-2 in 2011 to 254.5 g m-2 in 2013, while BNPP ranged from 23.5 g m-2 in 2015 to 194.2 g m-2 in 2013, demonstrating NPP in our semi-arid grassland is directly linked to extremes in both seasonal and annual precipitation. We also show increased nitrogen deposition positively affects NPP in unburned grassland, but has no significant impact on NPP post-fire except during extremely wet monsoon years. While soil respiration rates reflect lower ANPP post-fire, patterns in CO2 efflux have not been shown to change significantly in that efflux is greatest following large precipitation events preceded by longer drying periods. Current land surface models poorly represent dryland ecosystems, which frequently undergo extreme weather events. Our long-term experiment provides key insights into ecosystem processes and function, thereby providing capacity for model improvement particularly in the context of future environmental change.

The interrelationship of households economics activities of upland rice farmers in rain-fed farming in Ponjong Sub-district, Gunungkidul District, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rini, W. D. E.; Harisudin, M.; Supriyadi; Rahayu, E. S.

2018-03-01

Gunungkidul is one of the regencies at Yogyakarta, Indonesia which is 90% occupied by dry land, and thus vulnerable to climate change impact. Since dryland relies on water only from rain to meet crop water requirement, part of land management is rainfed. This condition encourages farmers to make the right decision regarding their additional income to meet household needs. Under the limited land resources, farmers decided to plant upland rice once or twice a year. The aim of the study is to analyze the interrelationship of households economics activities of upland rice farmers in rain-fed farming based on production, labor allocation, and consumption. The research method is descriptive analysis, with research site Ponjong sub-district, determined by the purposive method. Sampling method using proportional random sampling. Economics model was determined by using simultaneous equation model, with 2 SLS estimation method. The results showed that the household economics model of upland rice farmers in the rainfed land can be explained by using farmers household model and there is a linkage between production, labor allocation, and consumption.

Fall rice straw management and winter flooding treatment effects on a subsequent soybean crop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anders, M.M.; Windham, T.E.; McNew, R.W.; Reinecke, K.J.

2005-01-01

The effects of fall rice (Oryza sativa L.) straw management and winter flooding on the yield and profitability of subsequent irrigated and dryland soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] crops were studied for 3 years. Rice straw treatments consisted of disking, rolling, or standing stubble. Winter flooding treatments consisted of maintaining a minimum water depth of 10 cm by pumping water when necessary, impounding available rainfall, and draining fields to prevent flooding. The following soybean crop was managed as a conventional-tillage system or no-till system. Tillage system treatments were further divided into irrigated or dryland. Results indicated that there were no significant effects from either fall rice straw management or winter flooding treatments on soybean seed yields. Soybean seed yields for, the conventional tillage system were significantly greater than those for the no-till system for the first 2 yrs and not different in the third year. Irrigated soybean seed yields were significantly greater than those from dryland plots for all years. Net economic returns averaged over the 3 yrs were greatest ($390.00 ha-1) from the irrigated no-till system.

Agent-Based vs. Equation-based Epidemiological Models:A Model Selection Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sukumar, Sreenivas R; Nutaro, James J

This paper is motivated by the need to design model validation strategies for epidemiological disease-spread models. We consider both agent-based and equation-based models of pandemic disease spread and study the nuances and complexities one has to consider from the perspective of model validation. For this purpose, we instantiate an equation based model and an agent based model of the 1918 Spanish flu and we leverage data published in the literature for our case- study. We present our observations from the perspective of each implementation and discuss the application of model-selection criteria to compare the risk in choosing one modeling paradigmmore » to another. We conclude with a discussion of our experience and document future ideas for a model validation framework.« less

Situation awareness-based agent transparency for human-autonomy teaming effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jessie Y. C.; Barnes, Michael J.; Wright, Julia L.; Stowers, Kimberly; Lakhmani, Shan G.

2017-05-01

We developed the Situation awareness-based Agent Transparency (SAT) model to support human operators' situation awareness of the mission environment through teaming with intelligent agents. The model includes the agent's current actions and plans (Level 1), its reasoning process (Level 2), and its projection of future outcomes (Level 3). Human-inthe-loop simulation experiments have been conducted (Autonomous Squad Member and IMPACT) to illustrate the utility of the model for human-autonomy team interface designs. Across studies, the results consistently showed that human operators' task performance improved as the agents became more transparent. They also perceived transparent agents as more trustworthy.

Grain size controls on sediment supply from debris-mantled dryland hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaelides, K.

2011-12-01

Debris-mantled hillslopes are common in arid and semiarid environments where low rates of chemical weathering give rise to thin, non-cohesive soils mantled with a layer of coarse rock fragments derived from weathered bedrock that can reach boulder size. The grain size distributions (GSDs) on the surface of these hillslopes interact with different magnitudes and frequencies of runoff-producing rainfall events that selectively transport grain sizes of different classes depending on flow, grain position on the slope, and hillslope attributes. Sediment transport over many runoff events determines sediment delivery to the slope base, which ultimately modifies the GSD of valley floors. The relationship between hillslope attributes and sediment flux forms the basis of geomorphic transport laws used to model the topographic evolution of drainage basins over >104 y timescales, but the specific responses of sediment flux across the hillslope and the corresponding changes in GSDs to individual storm events are poorly understood. Sheetwash erosion of coarse fragments presents a particular set of conditions for sediment transport that is poorly resolved in current models. A particle-based model for sheetwash sediment transport on debris-mantled hillslopes was developed within a rainfall-runoff model. The rainfall-runoff model produces spatial values of flow depth and velocity which are used to drive a particle-by-particle force-balance model derived from first principles for grain sizes > 1 mm. Particles on the hillslope surface are represented explicitly and can be composed of mixed grain sizes of any distribution or of uniform sizes of any diameter. The model resolves all the forces on each particle at each time and space step based on the flow hydraulics acting on them, so no assumptions are made about incipient motion using Shield's criterion. This research examines how the interplay between hillslope GSD, hillslope attributes (gradient and length) and runoff characteristics, determine sediment transport dynamics and net flux, GSD supplied to the slope base and the changes in GSD on the hillslope. The results show a strong control of initial hillslope GSD on flux characteristics: (1) GSD controls the degree of non-linearity in the relationship between sediment flux and hillslope gradient. (2) Grain size uniformity controls the degree and form of non-linearity in the relationship between sediment flux and gradient. (3) Over multiple runoff events, slopes coarsen - steeper slopes become coarser than shallow slopes. For individual events, changes in GSD on the slope depend on the magnitude and duration of the runoff event and can result in variable coarsening and fining on different parts of the slope. (4) The GSD of sediment delivered to the slope base is dependent on the hillslope GSD and the hillslope attributes and runoff characteristics. For most runoff events, the GSD of fluxed sediment is finer than the hillslope GSD except for extreme runoff events on very steep slopes with intermediate GSD (not extremely coarse). These findings provide insights into hillslope responses to climatic forcing and have theoretical implications for modeling hillslope evolution in drylands.

Agent-based modeling as a tool for program design and evaluation.

PubMed

Lawlor, Jennifer A; McGirr, Sara

2017-12-01

Recently, systems thinking and systems science approaches have gained popularity in the field of evaluation; however, there has been relatively little exploration of how evaluators could use quantitative tools to assist in the implementation of systems approaches therein. The purpose of this paper is to explore potential uses of one such quantitative tool, agent-based modeling, in evaluation practice. To this end, we define agent-based modeling and offer potential uses for it in typical evaluation activities, including: engaging stakeholders, selecting an intervention, modeling program theory, setting performance targets, and interpreting evaluation results. We provide demonstrative examples from published agent-based modeling efforts both inside and outside the field of evaluation for each of the evaluative activities discussed. We further describe potential pitfalls of this tool and offer cautions for evaluators who may chose to implement it in their practice. Finally, the article concludes with a discussion of the future of agent-based modeling in evaluation practice and a call for more formal exploration of this tool as well as other approaches to simulation modeling in the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agent Based Modeling of Collaboration and Work Practices Onboard the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acquisti, Alessandro; Sierhuis, Maarten; Clancey, William J.; Bradshaw, Jeffrey M.; Shaffo, Mike (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The International Space Station is one the most complex projects ever, with numerous interdependent constraints affecting productivity and crew safety. This requires planning years before crew expeditions, and the use of sophisticated scheduling tools. Human work practices, however, are difficult to study and represent within traditional planning tools. We present an agent-based model and simulation of the activities and work practices of astronauts onboard the ISS based on an agent-oriented approach. The model represents 'a day in the life' of the ISS crew and is developed in Brahms, an agent-oriented, activity-based language used to model knowledge in situated action and learning in human activities.

Ensuring congruency in multiscale modeling: towards linking agent based and continuum biomechanical models of arterial adaptation.

PubMed

Hayenga, Heather N; Thorne, Bryan C; Peirce, Shayn M; Humphrey, Jay D

2011-11-01

There is a need to develop multiscale models of vascular adaptations to understand tissue-level manifestations of cellular level mechanisms. Continuum-based biomechanical models are well suited for relating blood pressures and flows to stress-mediated changes in geometry and properties, but less so for describing underlying mechanobiological processes. Discrete stochastic agent-based models are well suited for representing biological processes at a cellular level, but not for describing tissue-level mechanical changes. We present here a conceptually new approach to facilitate the coupling of continuum and agent-based models. Because of ubiquitous limitations in both the tissue- and cell-level data from which one derives constitutive relations for continuum models and rule-sets for agent-based models, we suggest that model verification should enforce congruency across scales. That is, multiscale model parameters initially determined from data sets representing different scales should be refined, when possible, to ensure that common outputs are consistent. Potential advantages of this approach are illustrated by comparing simulated aortic responses to a sustained increase in blood pressure predicted by continuum and agent-based models both before and after instituting a genetic algorithm to refine 16 objectively bounded model parameters. We show that congruency-based parameter refinement not only yielded increased consistency across scales, it also yielded predictions that are closer to in vivo observations.

Pattern formation--A missing link in the study of ecosystem response to environmental changes.

PubMed

Meron, Ehud

2016-01-01

Environmental changes can affect the functioning of an ecosystem directly, through the response of individual life forms, or indirectly, through interspecific interactions and community dynamics. The feasibility of a community-level response has motivated numerous studies aimed at understanding the mutual relationships between three elements of ecosystem dynamics: the abiotic environment, biodiversity and ecosystem function. Since ecosystems are inherently nonlinear and spatially extended, environmental changes can also induce pattern-forming instabilities that result in spatial self-organization of life forms and resources. This, in turn, can affect the relationships between these three elements, and make the response of ecosystems to environmental changes far more complex. Responses of this kind can be expected in dryland ecosystems, which show a variety of self-organizing vegetation patterns along the rainfall gradient. This paper describes the progress that has been made in understanding vegetation patterning in dryland ecosystems, and the roles it plays in ecosystem response to environmental variability. The progress has been achieved by modeling pattern-forming feedbacks at small spatial scales and up-scaling their effects to large scales through model studies. This approach sets the basis for integrating pattern formation theory into the study of ecosystem dynamics and addressing ecologically significant questions such as the dynamics of desertification, restoration of degraded landscapes, biodiversity changes along environmental gradients, and shrubland-grassland transitions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Agent-Based Model Approach to Complex Phenomena in Real Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyetomi, H.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Ikeda, Y.; Souma, W.

An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents are described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm directed by the ``profit maximization" principle is suppressed by a concept of ``going concern". Possibility of bankruptcy of firms is also introduced by incorporating a retardation effect of information on firms' decision. The firms, mutually interacting through the monopolistic bank, become heterogeneous in the course of temporal evolution. Statistical properties of firms' dynamics obtained by simulations based on the model are discussed in light of observations in the real economy.

Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. Purpose It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. Method We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. Results The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach. PMID:26812235

DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Laobing; Landucci, Gabriele; Reniers, Genserik; Khakzad, Nima; Zhou, Jianfeng

2017-12-19

Historical data analysis shows that escalation accidents, so-called domino effects, have an important role in disastrous accidents in the chemical and process industries. In this study, an agent-based modeling and simulation approach is proposed to study the propagation of domino effects in the chemical and process industries. Different from the analytical or Monte Carlo simulation approaches, which normally study the domino effect at probabilistic network levels, the agent-based modeling technique explains the domino effects from a bottom-up perspective. In this approach, the installations involved in a domino effect are modeled as agents whereas the interactions among the installations (e.g., by means of heat radiation) are modeled via the basic rules of the agents. Application of the developed model to several case studies demonstrates the ability of the model not only in modeling higher-level domino effects and synergistic effects but also in accounting for temporal dependencies. The model can readily be applied to large-scale complicated cases. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland in West Africa and its relationship with environmental variability.

PubMed

Tagesson, Torbern; Fensholt, Rasmus; Guiro, Idrissa; Rasmussen, Mads Olander; Huber, Silvia; Mbow, Cheikh; Garcia, Monica; Horion, Stéphanie; Sandholt, Inge; Holm-Rasmussen, Bo; Göttsche, Frank M; Ridler, Marc-Etienne; Olén, Niklas; Lundegard Olsen, Jørgen; Ehammer, Andrea; Madsen, Mathias; Olesen, Folke S; Ardö, Jonas

2015-01-01

The Dahra field site in Senegal, West Africa, was established in 2002 to monitor ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland and their responses to climatic and environmental change. This article describes the environment and the ecosystem properties of the site using a unique set of in situ data. The studied variables include hydroclimatic variables, species composition, albedo, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), hyperspectral characteristics (350-1800 nm), surface reflectance anisotropy, brightness temperature, fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR), biomass, vegetation water content, and land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon (NEE) and energy. The Dahra field site experiences a typical Sahelian climate and is covered by coexisting trees (~3% canopy cover) and grass species, characterizing large parts of the Sahel. This makes the site suitable for investigating relationships between ecosystem properties and hydroclimatic variables for semiarid savanna ecosystems of the region. There were strong interannual, seasonal and diurnal dynamics in NEE, with high values of ~-7.5 g C m(-2)  day(-1) during the peak of the growing season. We found neither browning nor greening NDVI trends from 2002 to 2012. Interannual variation in species composition was strongly related to rainfall distribution. NDVI and FAPAR were strongly related to species composition, especially for years dominated by the species Zornia glochidiata. This influence was not observed in interannual variation in biomass and vegetation productivity, thus challenging dryland productivity models based on remote sensing. Surface reflectance anisotropy (350-1800 nm) at the peak of the growing season varied strongly depending on wavelength and viewing angle thereby having implications for the design of remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices covering different wavelength regions. The presented time series of in situ data have great potential for dryland dynamics studies, global climate change related research and evaluation and parameterization of remote sensing products and dynamic vegetation models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

2015-12-01

Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological impacts.

A physical data model for fields and agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Kor; de Bakker, Merijn; Karssenberg, Derek

2016-04-01

Two approaches exist in simulation modeling: agent-based and field-based modeling. In agent-based (or individual-based) simulation modeling, the entities representing the system's state are represented by objects, which are bounded in space and time. Individual objects, like an animal, a house, or a more abstract entity like a country's economy, have properties representing their state. In an agent-based model this state is manipulated. In field-based modeling, the entities representing the system's state are represented by fields. Fields capture the state of a continuous property within a spatial extent, examples of which are elevation, atmospheric pressure, and water flow velocity. With respect to the technology used to create these models, the domains of agent-based and field-based modeling have often been separate worlds. In environmental modeling, widely used logical data models include feature data models for point, line and polygon objects, and the raster data model for fields. Simulation models are often either agent-based or field-based, even though the modeled system might contain both entities that are better represented by individuals and entities that are better represented by fields. We think that the reason for this dichotomy in kinds of models might be that the traditional object and field data models underlying those models are relatively low level. We have developed a higher level conceptual data model for representing both non-spatial and spatial objects, and spatial fields (De Bakker et al. 2016). Based on this conceptual data model we designed a logical and physical data model for representing many kinds of data, including the kinds used in earth system modeling (e.g. hydrological and ecological models). The goal of this work is to be able to create high level code and tools for the creation of models in which entities are representable by both objects and fields. Our conceptual data model is capable of representing the traditional feature data models and the raster data model, among many other data models. Our physical data model is capable of storing a first set of kinds of data, like omnipresent scalars, mobile spatio-temporal points and property values, and spatio-temporal rasters. With our poster we will provide an overview of the physical data model expressed in HDF5 and show examples of how it can be used to capture both object- and field-based information. References De Bakker, M, K. de Jong, D. Karssenberg. 2016. A conceptual data model and language for fields and agents. European Geosciences Union, EGU General Assembly, 2016, Vienna.

Agent-Based Modeling of Cancer Stem Cell Driven Solid Tumor Growth.

PubMed

Poleszczuk, Jan; Macklin, Paul; Enderling, Heiko

2016-01-01

Computational modeling of tumor growth has become an invaluable tool to simulate complex cell-cell interactions and emerging population-level dynamics. Agent-based models are commonly used to describe the behavior and interaction of individual cells in different environments. Behavioral rules can be informed and calibrated by in vitro assays, and emerging population-level dynamics may be validated with both in vitro and in vivo experiments. Here, we describe the design and implementation of a lattice-based agent-based model of cancer stem cell driven tumor growth.

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: coarse-graining a civil violence model.

PubMed

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: Coarse-graining a civil violence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A.; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

Persuasion Model and Its Evaluation Based on Positive Change Degree of Agent Emotion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jinghua, Wu; Wenguang, Lu; Hailiang, Meng

For it can meet needs of negotiation among organizations take place in different time and place, and for it can make its course more rationality and result more ideal, persuasion based on agent can improve cooperation among organizations well. Integrated emotion change in agent persuasion can further bring agent advantage of artificial intelligence into play. Emotion of agent persuasion is classified, and the concept of positive change degree is given. Based on this, persuasion model based on positive change degree of agent emotion is constructed, which is explained clearly through an example. Finally, the method of relative evaluation is given, which is also verified through a calculation example.

Integration agent-based models and GIS as a virtual urban dynamic laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng; Liu, Miaolong

2007-06-01

Based on the Agent-based Model and spatial data model, a tight-coupling integrating method of GIS and Agent-based Model (ABM) is to be discussed in this paper. The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena such as urban dynamic. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, the agent-based model and spatial data model are discussed, and then the relationships affecting spatial data model and agent-based process models interaction. After that, a realistic crowd flow simulation experiment is presented. Using some tools provided by general GIS systems and a few specific programming languages, a new software system integrating GIS and MAS as a virtual laboratory applicable for simulating pedestrian flows in a crowd activity centre has been developed successfully. Under the environment supported by the software system, as an applicable case, a dynamic evolution process of the pedestrian's flows (dispersed process for the spectators) in a crowds' activity center - The Shanghai Stadium has been simulated successfully. At the end of the paper, some new research problems have been pointed out for the future.

Combining human and machine intelligence to derive agents' behavioral rules for groundwater irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yao; Quinn, Christopher J.; Cai, Ximing; Garfinkle, Noah W.

2017-11-01

For agent-based modeling, the major challenges in deriving agents' behavioral rules arise from agents' bounded rationality and data scarcity. This study proposes a "gray box" approach to address the challenge by incorporating expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) with machine learning techniques (i.e., machine intelligence). Specifically, we propose using directed information graph (DIG), boosted regression trees (BRT), and domain knowledge to infer causal factors and identify behavioral rules from data. A case study is conducted to investigate farmers' pumping behavior in the Midwest, U.S.A. Results show that four factors identified by the DIG algorithm- corn price, underlying groundwater level, monthly mean temperature and precipitation- have main causal influences on agents' decisions on monthly groundwater irrigation depth. The agent-based model is then developed based on the behavioral rules represented by three DIGs and modeled by BRTs, and coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the impacts of agents' pumping behavior on the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and environmental systems.

Barnes Maze Procedure for Spatial Learning and Memory in Mice.

PubMed

Pitts, Matthew W

2018-03-05

The Barnes maze is a dry-land based rodent behavioral paradigm for assessing spatial learning and memory that was originally developed by its namesake, Carol Barnes. It represents a well-established alternative to the more popular Morris Water maze and offers the advantage of being free from the potentially confounding influence of swimming behavior. Herein, the Barnes maze experimental setup and corresponding procedures for testing and analysis in mice are described in detail.

An Agent-Based Model for Studying Child Maltreatment and Child Maltreatment Prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard W.

This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of child maltreatment and child maltreatment prevention. The developed model follows the principles of complex systems science and explicitly models a community and its families with multi-level factors and interconnections across the social ecology. This makes it possible to experiment how different factors and prevention strategies can affect the rate of child maltreatment. We present the background of this work and give an overview of the agent-based model and show some simulation results.

Agent-based models of cellular systems.

PubMed

Cannata, Nicola; Corradini, Flavio; Merelli, Emanuela; Tesei, Luca

2013-01-01

Software agents are particularly suitable for engineering models and simulations of cellular systems. In a very natural and intuitive manner, individual software components are therein delegated to reproduce "in silico" the behavior of individual components of alive systems at a given level of resolution. Individuals' actions and interactions among individuals allow complex collective behavior to emerge. In this chapter we first introduce the readers to software agents and multi-agent systems, reviewing the evolution of agent-based modeling of biomolecular systems in the last decade. We then describe the main tools, platforms, and methodologies available for programming societies of agents, possibly profiting also of toolkits that do not require advanced programming skills.

Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.

2004-12-01

The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage based on its own condition and the condition of the world around it. For example, residential agents can make decisions to convert to or from xeriscaping and/or low-flow appliances based on policy implementation, economic status, weather, and climatic conditions. Agricultural agents may vary their usage by making decisions on crop distribution and irrigation design. Preliminary results show that water usage can be highly irrational under certain conditions. Results also identify sub-sectors within each group that have the highest influence on ensemble group behavior, providing a means for policy makers to target their efforts. Finally, the model is able to predict the impact of low-probability, high-impact events such as catastrophic denial of service due to natural and/or man-made events.

C₃ and C₄ plant responses to increased temperatures and altered monsoonal precipitation in a cool desert on the Colorado Plateau, USA.

PubMed

Wertin, Timothy M; Reed, Sasha C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-04-01

Dryland ecosystems represent >40% of the terrestrial landscape and support over two billion people; consequently, it is vital to understand how drylands will respond to climatic change. However, while arid and semiarid ecosystems commonly experience extremely hot and dry conditions, our understanding of how further temperature increases or altered precipitation will affect dryland plant communities remains poor. To address this question, we assessed plant physiology and growth at a long-term (7-year) climate experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA, where the community is a mix of shallow-rooted C3 and C4 grasses and deep-rooted C4 shrubs. The experiment maintained elevated-temperature treatments (+2 or +4 °C) in combination with altered summer monsoonal precipitation (+small frequent precipitation events or +large infrequent events). Increased temperature negatively affected photosynthesis and growth of the C3 and C4 grasses, but effects varied in their timing: +4 °C treatments negatively affected the C3 grass early in the growing season of both years, while the negative effects of temperature on the C4 grass were seen in the +2 and +4 °C treatments, but only during the late growing season of the drier year. Increased summer precipitation did not affect photosynthesis or biomass for any species, either in the year the precipitation was applied or the following year. Although previous research suggests dryland plants, and C4 grasses in particular, may respond positively to elevated temperature, our findings from a cool desert show marked declines in C3 and C4 photosynthesis and growth, with temperature effects dependent on the degree of warming and growing-season precipitation.

C3 and C4 plant responses to increased temperatures and altered monsoonal precipitation in a cool desert on the Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wertin, Timothy M.; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

Dryland ecosystems represent >40 % of the terrestrial landscape and support over two billion people; consequently, it is vital to understand how drylands will respond to climatic change. However, while arid and semiarid ecosystems commonly experience extremely hot and dry conditions, our understanding of how further temperature increases or altered precipitation will affect dryland plant communities remains poor. To address this question, we assessed plant physiology and growth at a long-term (7-year) climate experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA, where the community is a mix of shallow-rooted C3 and C4 grasses and deep-rooted C4 shrubs. The experiment maintained elevated-temperature treatments (+2 or +4 °C) in combination with altered summer monsoonal precipitation (+small frequent precipitation events or +large infrequent events). Increased temperature negatively affected photosynthesis and growth of the C3 and C4 grasses, but effects varied in their timing: +4 °C treatments negatively affected the C3 grass early in the growing season of both years, while the negative effects of temperature on the C4 grass were seen in the +2 and +4 °C treatments, but only during the late growing season of the drier year. Increased summer precipitation did not affect photosynthesis or biomass for any species, either in the year the precipitation was applied or the following year. Although previous research suggests dryland plants, and C4 grasses in particular, may respond positively to elevated temperature, our findings from a cool desert show marked declines in C3 and C4 photosynthesis and growth, with temperature effects dependent on the degree of warming and growing-season precipitation.

Increased temperature and altered summer precipitation have differential effects on biological soil crusts in a dryland ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Shannon L.; Kuske, Cheryl R.; Carney, Travis D.; Housman, David C.; Gallegos-Graves, La Verne; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common and ecologically important members of dryland ecosystems worldwide, where they stabilize soil surfaces and contribute newly fixed C and N to soils. To test the impacts of predicted climate change scenarios on biocrusts in a dryland ecosystem, the effects of a 2–3 °C increase in soil temperature and an increased frequency of smaller summer precipitation events were examined in a large, replicated field study conducted in the cold desert of the Colorado Plateau, USA. Surface soil biomass (DNA concentration), photosynthetically active cyanobacterial biomass (chlorophyll a concentration), cyanobacterial abundance (quantitative PCR assay), and bacterial community composition (16S rRNA gene sequencing) were monitored seasonally over 2 years. Soil microbial biomass and bacterial community composition were highly stratified between the 0–2 cm depth biocrusts and 5–10 cm depth soil beneath the biocrusts. The increase in temperature did not have a detectable effect on any of the measured parameters over 2 years. However, after the second summer of altered summer precipitation pattern, significant declines occurred in the surface soil biomass (avg. DNA concentration declined 38%), photosynthetic cyanobacterial biomass (avg. chlorophyll a concentration declined 78%), cyanobacterial abundance (avg. gene copies g−1 soil declined 95%), and proportion of Cyanobacteria in the biocrust bacterial community (avg. representation in sequence libraries declined 85%). Biocrusts are important contributors to soil stability, soil C and N stores, and plant performance, and the loss or reduction of biocrusts under an altered precipitation pattern associated with climate change could contribute significantly to lower soil fertility and increased erosion and dust production in dryland ecosystems at a regional scale.

Erodibility of calcareous soils as influenced by land use and intrinsic soil properties in a semiarid region of central Iran.

PubMed

Ayoubi, Shamsollah; Mokhtari, Javad; Mosaddeghi, Mohammad Reza; Zeraatpisheh, Mojtaba

2018-03-06

The most important properties affecting the soil loss and runoff were investigated, and the effects of land use on the soil properties, together with the erodibility indices in a semiarid zone, central Iran, were evaluated. The locations of 100 positions were acquired by cLHS and 0-5-cm surface soil layer samples were used for laboratory analyses from the Borujen Region, Chaharmahal-Va-Bakhtiari Province, central Iran. To measure in situ runoff and soil erodibility of three different land uses comprising dryland, irrigated farming, and rangeland, a portable rainfall simulator was used. The results showed that the high variations (coefficient of variation, CV) were obtained for electrical conductivity (EC), mean weight diameter (MWD), soil organic carbon (SOC), and soil erodibility indices including runoff volume, soil loss, and sediment concentration (CV ~ 43.6-77.4%). Soil erodibility indices showed positive and significant correlations with bulk density and negative correlations with SOC, MWD, clay content, and soil shear strength in the area under investigation. The values of runoff in the dryland, irrigated farming, and rangeland were found 1.5, 28.9, and 58.7 cm 3 ; soil loss in the dryland, irrigated farming, and rangeland were observed 0.25, 2.96, and 76.8 g; and the amount of sediment concentration in the dryland, irrigated farming, and rangeland were found 0.01, 0.11, and 0.15 g cm -3 . It is suggested that further investigations should be carried out on soil erodibility and the potential of sediment yield in various land uses with varying topography and soil properties in semiarid regions of Iran facing the high risk of soil loss.

Abiotic versus biotic controls on soil nitrogen cycling in drylands along a 3200 km transect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dongwei; Zhu, Weixing; Wang, Xiaobo; Pan, Yuepeng; Wang, Chao; Xi, Dan; Bai, Edith; Wang, Yuesi; Han, Xingguo; Fang, Yunting

2017-03-01

Nitrogen (N) cycling in drylands under changing climate is not well understood. Our understanding of N cycling over larger scales to date relies heavily on the measurement of bulk soil N, and the information about internal soil N transformations remains limited. The 15N natural abundance (δ15N) of ammonium and nitrate can serve as a proxy record for the N processes in soils. To better understand the patterns and mechanisms of N cycling in drylands, we collected soils along a 3200 km transect at about 100 km intervals in northern China, with mean annual precipitation (MAP) ranging from 36 to 436 mm. We analyzed N pools and δ15N of ammonium, dual isotopes (15N and 18O) of nitrate, and the microbial gene abundance associated with soil N transformations. We found that N status and its driving factors were different above and below a MAP threshold of 100 mm. In the arid zone with MAP below 100 mm, soil inorganic N accumulated, with a large fraction being of atmospheric origin, and ammonia volatilization was strong in soils with high pH. In addition, the abundance of microbial genes associated with soil N transformations was low. In the semiarid zone with MAP above 100 mm, soil inorganic N concentrations were low and were controlled mainly by biological processes (e.g., plant uptake and denitrification). The preference for soil ammonium over nitrate by the dominant plant species may enhance the possibility of soil nitrate losses via denitrification. Overall, our study suggests that a shift from abiotic to biotic controls on soil N biogeochemistry under global climate changes would greatly affect N losses, soil N availability, and other N transformation processes in these drylands in China.

B-tree search reinforcement learning for model based intelligent agent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuvaneswari, S.; Vignashwaran, R.

2013-03-01

Agents trained by learning techniques provide a powerful approximation of active solutions for naive approaches. In this study using B - Trees implying reinforced learning the data search for information retrieval is moderated to achieve accuracy with minimum search time. The impact of variables and tactics applied in training are determined using reinforcement learning. Agents based on these techniques perform satisfactory baseline and act as finite agents based on the predetermined model against competitors from the course.

Understanding Group/Party Affiliation Using Social Networks and Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Kenyth

2012-01-01

The dynamics of group affiliation and group dispersion is a concept that is most often studied in order for political candidates to better understand the most efficient way to conduct their campaigns. While political campaigning in the United States is a very hot topic that most politicians analyze and study, the concept of group/party affiliation presents its own area of study that producers very interesting results. One tool for examining party affiliation on a large scale is agent-based modeling (ABM), a paradigm in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field perfectly suited for aggregating individual behaviors to observe large swaths of a population. For this study agent based modeling was used in order to look at a community of agents and determine what factors can affect the group/party affiliation patterns that are present. In the agent-based model that was used for this experiment many factors were present but two main factors were used to determine the results. The results of this study show that it is possible to use agent-based modeling to explore group/party affiliation and construct a model that can mimic real world events. More importantly, the model in the study allows for the results found in a smaller community to be translated into larger experiments to determine if the results will remain present on a much larger scale.

Review of the systems biology of the immune system using agent-based models.

PubMed

Shinde, Snehal B; Kurhekar, Manish P

2018-06-01

The immune system is an inherent protection system in vertebrate animals including human beings that exhibit properties such as self-organisation, self-adaptation, learning, and recognition. It interacts with the other allied systems such as the gut and lymph nodes. There is a need for immune system modelling to know about its complex internal mechanism, to understand how it maintains the homoeostasis, and how it interacts with the other systems. There are two types of modelling techniques used for the simulation of features of the immune system: equation-based modelling (EBM) and agent-based modelling. Owing to certain shortcomings of the EBM, agent-based modelling techniques are being widely used. This technique provides various predictions for disease causes and treatments; it also helps in hypothesis verification. This study presents a review of agent-based modelling of the immune system and its interactions with the gut and lymph nodes. The authors also review the modelling of immune system interactions during tuberculosis and cancer. In addition, they also outline the future research directions for the immune system simulation through agent-based techniques such as the effects of stress on the immune system, evolution of the immune system, and identification of the parameters for a healthy immune system.

Analysis of Biophysical Mechanisms of Gilgai Microrelief Formation in Dryland Swelling Soils Using Ultra-High Resolution Aerial Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krell, N.; DeCarlo, K. F.; Caylor, K. K.

2015-12-01

Microrelief formations ("gilgai"), which form due to successive wetting-drying cycles typical of swelling soils, provide ecological hotspots for local fauna and flora, including higher and more robust vegetative growth. The distribution of these gilgai suggests a remarkable degree of regularity. However, it is unclear to what extent the mechanisms that drive gilgai formation are physical, such as desiccation-induced fracturing, or biological in nature, namely antecedent vegetative clustering. We investigated gilgai genesis and pattern formation in a 100 x 100 meter study area with swelling soils in a semiarid grassland at the Mpala Research Center in central Kenya. Our ongoing experiment is composed of three 9m2 treatments: we removed gilgai and limited vegetative growth by herbicide application in one plot, allowed for unrestricted seed dispersal in another, and left gilgai unobstructed in a control plot. To estimate the spatial frequencies of the repeating patterns of gilgai, we obtained ultra-high resolution (0.01-0.03m/pixel) images with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) from which digital elevation models were also generated. Geostatistical analyses using wavelet and fourier methods in 1- and 2-dimensions were employed to characterize gilgai size and distribution. Preliminary results support regular spatial patterning across the gilgaied landscape and heterogeneities may be related to local soil properties and biophysical influences. Local data on gilgai and fracture characteristics suggest that gilgai form at characteristic heights and spacing based on fracture morphology: deep, wide cracks result in large, highly vegetated mounds whereas shallow cracks, induced by animal trails, are less correlated with gilgai size and shape. Our experiments will help elucidate the links between shrink-swell processes and gilgai-vegetation patterning in high activity clay soils and advance our understanding of the mechanisms of gilgai formation in drylands.

Impact of vegetation on land-atmosphere coupling strength and its implication for desertification mitigation over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Choi, Suk-Jin; Park, Seon Ki

2012-06-01

Desertification of the East Asian drylands and the consequent dust transport have been serious concerns for adjacent Asian countries as well as the western United States. Tree planting has been considered one applicable strategy to mitigate the desertification. However, the desired effect of the tree planting would not be brought to fruition unless the newly planted trees change the coupling characteristics between the land and the atmosphere. Based on this perception, we attempt to clarify the effects of vegetation on the coupling strength between the atmosphere and land surface, and we suggest the most efficient areas of tree planting for desertification mitigation in East Asia. Using regional vegetation-atmosphere coupled model simulations, coupling strength with and without vegetation was computed and compared with each other. An increased vegetation fraction reduces the coupling strength in June, July, and August (JJA), primarily due to decreased evapotranspiration variability. This effect is pronounced over the Manchurian Plains and the highly populated areas of Beijing and Tianjin. The reduced coupling strength tends to weaken feedback between soil moisture and precipitation as a maintenance mechanism of warm season droughts in the midlatitudes and subsequently decrease the probability of droughts, a finding that is reflected in the enhanced JJA mean soil moisture. However, some drylands like the eastern edges of the Gobi desert present marginal or even opposite changes in coupling strength, meaning a limited effect of vegetation on relieving droughts. Therefore, given limited financial and human resources, acupuncture-like afforestation, i.e., concentrated tree planting in a particular region where the coupling strength can be substantially reduced by vegetation, is an effective strategy to secure long-standing desertification mitigation.

Chronic Heart Failure Follow-up Management Based on Agent Technology.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Safdari, Reza

2015-10-01

Monitoring heart failure patients through continues assessment of sign and symptoms by information technology tools lead to large reduction in re-hospitalization. Agent technology is one of the strongest artificial intelligence areas; therefore, it can be expected to facilitate, accelerate, and improve health services especially in home care and telemedicine. The aim of this article is to provide an agent-based model for chronic heart failure (CHF) follow-up management. This research was performed in 2013-2014 to determine appropriate scenarios and the data required to monitor and follow-up CHF patients, and then an agent-based model was designed. Agents in the proposed model perform the following tasks: medical data access, communication with other agents of the framework and intelligent data analysis, including medical data processing, reasoning, negotiation for decision-making, and learning capabilities. The proposed multi-agent system has ability to learn and thus improve itself. Implementation of this model with more and various interval times at a broader level could achieve better results. The proposed multi-agent system is no substitute for cardiologists, but it could assist them in decision-making.

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

PubMed Central

Snijders, Tom A.B.; Steglich, Christian E.G.

2014-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of generalized linear statistical models they aim to be realistic detailed representations of network dynamics in empirical data sets. Statistical parallels to micro-macro considerations can be found in the estimation of parameters determining local actor behavior from empirical data, and the assessment of goodness of fit from the correspondence with network-level descriptives. This article studies several network-level consequences of dynamic actor-based models applied to represent cross-sectional network data. Two examples illustrate how network-level characteristics can be obtained as emergent features implied by micro-specifications of actor-based models. PMID:25960578

Scoping Planning Agents With Shared Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bedrax-Weiss, Tania; Frank, Jeremy D.; Jonsson, Ari K.; McGann, Conor

2003-01-01

In this paper we provide a formal framework to define the scope of planning agents based on a single declarative model. Having multiple agents sharing a single model provides numerous advantages that lead to reduced development costs and increase reliability of the system. We formally define planning in terms of extensions of an initial partial plan, and a set of flaws that make the plan unacceptable. A Flaw Filter (FF) allows us to identify those flaws relevant to an agent. Flaw filters motivate the Plan Identification Function (PIF), which specifies when an agent is is ready hand control to another agent for further work. PIFs define a set of plan extensions that can be generated from a model and a plan request. FFs and PIFs can be used to define the scope of agents without changing the model. We describe an implementation of PIFsand FFswithin the context of EUROPA, a constraint-based planning architecture, and show how it can be used to easily design many different agents.

An Agent-Based Data Mining System for Ontology Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadzic, Maja; Dillon, Darshan

We have developed an evidence-based mental health ontological model that represents mental health in multiple dimensions. The ongoing addition of new mental health knowledge requires a continual update of the Mental Health Ontology. In this paper, we describe how the ontology evolution can be realized using a multi-agent system in combination with data mining algorithms. We use the TICSA methodology to design this multi-agent system which is composed of four different types of agents: Information agent, Data Warehouse agent, Data Mining agents and Ontology agent. We use UML 2.1 sequence diagrams to model the collaborative nature of the agents and a UML 2.1 composite structure diagram to model the structure of individual agents. The Mental Heath Ontology has the potential to underpin various mental health research experiments of a collaborative nature which are greatly needed in times of increasing mental distress and illness.

Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models.

PubMed

Ajelli, Marco; Gonçalves, Bruno; Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-06-29

In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used. We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels. The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, R0, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are obtained for the younger age classes. The good agreement between the two modeling approaches is very important for defining the tradeoff between data availability and the information provided by the models. The results we present define the possibility of hybrid models combining the agent-based and the metapopulation approaches according to the available data and computational resources.

Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams. Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-12

Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling Tristan E. Johnson, Ph.D. Learning ...REPORT DATE AUG 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Strategies to Enhance Online Learning ...TeamsTeam Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams: Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems

PubMed Central

Bonabeau, Eric

2002-01-01

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation modeling technique that has seen a number of applications in the last few years, including applications to real-world business problems. After the basic principles of agent-based simulation are briefly introduced, its four areas of application are discussed by using real-world applications: flow simulation, organizational simulation, market simulation, and diffusion simulation. For each category, one or several business applications are described and analyzed. PMID:12011407

Agent based modeling of the coevolution of hostility and pacifism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalmagro, Fermin; Jimenez, Juan

2015-01-01

We propose a model based on a population of agents whose states represent either hostile or peaceful behavior. Randomly selected pairs of agents interact according to a variation of the Prisoners Dilemma game, and the probabilities that the agents behave aggressively or not are constantly updated by the model so that the agents that remain in the game are those with the highest fitness. We show that the population of agents oscillate between generalized conflict and global peace, without either reaching a stable state. We then use this model to explain some of the emergent behaviors in collective conflicts, by comparing the simulated results with empirical data obtained from social systems. In particular, using public data reports we show how the model precisely reproduces interesting quantitative characteristics of diverse types of armed conflicts, public protests, riots and strikes.

Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

2015-12-01

Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

Formalizing the Role of Agent-Based Modeling in Causal Inference and Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Marshall, Brandon D. L.; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-01

Calls for the adoption of complex systems approaches, including agent-based modeling, in the field of epidemiology have largely centered on the potential for such methods to examine complex disease etiologies, which are characterized by feedback behavior, interference, threshold dynamics, and multiple interacting causal effects. However, considerable theoretical and practical issues impede the capacity of agent-based methods to examine and evaluate causal effects and thus illuminate new areas for intervention. We build on this work by describing how agent-based models can be used to simulate counterfactual outcomes in the presence of complexity. We show that these models are of particular utility when the hypothesized causal mechanisms exhibit a high degree of interdependence between multiple causal effects and when interference (i.e., one person's exposure affects the outcome of others) is present and of intrinsic scientific interest. Although not without challenges, agent-based modeling (and complex systems methods broadly) represent a promising novel approach to identify and evaluate complex causal effects, and they are thus well suited to complement other modern epidemiologic methods of etiologic inquiry. PMID:25480821

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams

PubMed Central

Jaeger, Kristin L.; Olden, Julian D.; Pelland, Noel A.

2014-01-01

Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6–9% over the course of a year and up to 12–18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna. PMID:25136090

[Soil moisture variation under different water and fertilization managements in apple orchard of Weibei dryland, China].

PubMed

Zhao, Zhi Yuan; Zheng, Wei; Liu, Jie; Ma, Peng Yi; Li, Zi Yan; Zhai, Bing Nian; Wang, Zhao Hui

2018-04-01

To evaluate the variations of soil moisture under different water and fertilizer treatments in apple orchard in the Weibei dryland, a field experiment was carried out in 2013-2016 at Tianjiawa Village, Baishui County, Shaanxi Province. There were three treatments, i.e., farmers traditional model (only addition of NPK chemical fertilizer, FM), extension model (swine manure and NPK chemical fertilizer combined with black plastic film in tree row space, EM), and optimized model (swine manure and NPK chemical fertilizer combined with black plastic film in tree row space and planting rape in the inter-row of apple trees, OM). The results showed that OM treatment significantly increased soil water storage capacity in 0-200 cm soil layer. Water content of 0-100 cm soil layer was increased by 5.6% and 15.3% in the dry season compared with FM and EM treatment, respectively. Moreover, the soil water relative deficit index of OM was lower than that of EM in 200-300 cm soil layer. The rainfall infiltration in the dry year could reach 300 cm depth under OM. Meanwhile, OM stabilized soil water content and efficiently alleviated the desiccation in deep soil layer. Compared with FM and EM, the 4-year average yield of OM was increased by 36.6% and 22.5%, respectively. In summary, OM could increase water use efficiency through increasing the contents of available soil water and improving the soil water condition in shallow and deep layers, which help alleviate the soil deficit in deep layer and increase yield.

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams.

PubMed

Jaeger, Kristin L; Olden, Julian D; Pelland, Noel A

2014-09-23

Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6-9% over the course of a year and up to 12-18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

2015-04-01

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

Contributions of Dryland Forest (Caatinga) to Species Composition, Richness and Diversity of Drosophilidae.

PubMed

Oliveira, G F; Rohde, C; Garcia, A C L; Montes, M A; Valente, V L S

2016-10-01

In this study, semi-arid environments were tested to see if they support insect diversity. This was evaluated through the structure of the composition of assemblies of drosophilids in three conservation units placed in three different ecoregions in the dryland forests, Caatinga. This is a unique biome in northeast Brazil, comprising approximately 10% of the country. Species richness was investigated over 2 years during a prolonged drought, considered the worst affliction the Caatinga ecosystem had experienced in the last 50 years. Alpha diversity indices and the ecological similarity between the samples were calculated to determine how the environments drive the composition of Drosophilidae in such semi-arid places. A total of 7352 specimens were sampled. They were classified into 20 species belonging to four genera: Drosophila, Rhinoleucophenga, Scaptodrosophila, and Zaprionus. Drosophila nebulosa Sturtevant (44.5%) and Drosophila cardini Sturtevant (12.5%) were the most abundant species. The occurrences and abundances of all the species differed greatly between sites. These results and other ecological analyses indicate that although placed in the same biome, there are great variability in the drosophilid species and abundance among the three protected and conserved dryland environments.

The visibility of using water boxes and mulch in dryland revegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alhamad, Mohammad Noor; Alrababah, Mohammad; Athamneh, Hanaa

2017-04-01

Drylands cover more than 41% of the world's surface area and are homeland for about one-third of the world's population, 90% of them in developing countries. Land degradation in the drylands is hot environmental topic as it impacts environmental quality and jeopardizes food security in developing countries. The climate of Jordan varies from dry sub-humid Mediterranean in northwestern areas to desert conditions over a distance of 100 km, where more than 90 % of the county's area receives annual rainfall of less than 200 mm. In Jordan revegetation programs are rainfed; rainfall in Jordan is characterized by variable nature, thus, these programs faces a major challenge of the low survival rate of transplanted seedlings. The present study ought to explore the visibility of using water boxes and plastic mulch as an innovative approach to enhance seedling survival and establishment of four forest tress species ( Carob, Cupressus, Quercus, and Pinus). The experiment results showed that Cupressus, and Pinus seedlings expressed the highest survival rate of 88% and 84 % respectively, flowed by Crob (64%) and Querrcus (16%). The plastic mulch significantly enhanced the seedling survival rate b y40 % over the control while the water boxes resulted in an increase of 32 % over the control.

Epidemic modeling with discrete-space scheduled walkers: extensions and research opportunities

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background This exploratory paper outlines an epidemic simulator built on an agent-based, data-driven model of the spread of a disease within an urban environment. An intent of the model is to provide insight into how a disease may reach a tipping point, spreading to an epidemic of uncontrollable proportions. Methods As a complement to analytical methods, simulation is arguably an effective means of gaining a better understanding of system-level disease dynamics within a population and offers greater utility in its modeling capabilities. Our investigation is based on this conjecture, supported by data-driven models that are reasonable, realistic and practical, in an attempt to demonstrate their efficacy in studying system-wide epidemic phenomena. An agent-based model (ABM) offers considerable flexibility in extending the study of the phenomena before, during and after an outbreak or catastrophe. Results An agent-based model was developed based on a paradigm of a 'discrete-space scheduled walker' (DSSW), modeling a medium-sized North American City of 650,000 discrete agents, built upon a conceptual framework of statistical reasoning (law of large numbers, statistical mechanics) as well as a correct-by-construction bias. The model addresses where, who, when and what elements, corresponding to network topography and agent characteristics, behaviours, and interactions upon that topography. The DSSW-ABM has an interface and associated scripts that allow for a variety of what-if scenarios modeling disease spread throughout the population, and for data to be collected and displayed via a web browser. Conclusion This exploratory paper also presents several research opportunities for exploiting data sources of a non-obvious and disparate nature for the purposes of epidemic modeling. There is an increasing amount and variety of data that will continue to contribute to the accuracy of agent-based models and improve their utility in modeling disease spread. The model developed here is well suited to diseases where there is not a predisposition for contraction within the population. One of the advantages of agent-based modeling is the ability to set up a rare event and develop policy as to how one may mitigate damages arising from it. PMID:19922684

Epidemic modeling with discrete-space scheduled walkers: extensions and research opportunities.

PubMed

Borkowski, Maciej; Podaima, Blake W; McLeod, Robert D

2009-11-18

This exploratory paper outlines an epidemic simulator built on an agent-based, data-driven model of the spread of a disease within an urban environment. An intent of the model is to provide insight into how a disease may reach a tipping point, spreading to an epidemic of uncontrollable proportions. As a complement to analytical methods, simulation is arguably an effective means of gaining a better understanding of system-level disease dynamics within a population and offers greater utility in its modeling capabilities. Our investigation is based on this conjecture, supported by data-driven models that are reasonable, realistic and practical, in an attempt to demonstrate their efficacy in studying system-wide epidemic phenomena. An agent-based model (ABM) offers considerable flexibility in extending the study of the phenomena before, during and after an outbreak or catastrophe. An agent-based model was developed based on a paradigm of a 'discrete-space scheduled walker' (DSSW), modeling a medium-sized North American City of 650,000 discrete agents, built upon a conceptual framework of statistical reasoning (law of large numbers, statistical mechanics) as well as a correct-by-construction bias. The model addresses where, who, when and what elements, corresponding to network topography and agent characteristics, behaviours, and interactions upon that topography. The DSSW-ABM has an interface and associated scripts that allow for a variety of what-if scenarios modeling disease spread throughout the population, and for data to be collected and displayed via a web browser. This exploratory paper also presents several research opportunities for exploiting data sources of a non-obvious and disparate nature for the purposes of epidemic modeling. There is an increasing amount and variety of data that will continue to contribute to the accuracy of agent-based models and improve their utility in modeling disease spread. The model developed here is well suited to diseases where there is not a predisposition for contraction within the population. One of the advantages of agent-based modeling is the ability to set up a rare event and develop policy as to how one may mitigate damages arising from it.

The impact of fog on soil moisture dynamics in the Namib Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Vogt, Roland; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

2018-03-01

Soil moisture is a crucial component supporting vegetation dynamics in drylands. Despite increasing attention on fog in dryland ecosystems, the statistical characterization of fog distribution and how fog affects soil moisture dynamics have not been seen in literature. To this end, daily fog records over two years (Dec 1, 2014-Nov 1, 2016) from three sites within the Namib Desert were used to characterize fog distribution. Two sites were located within the Gobabeb Research and Training Center vicinity, the gravel plains and the sand dunes. The third site was located at the gravel plains, Kleinberg. A subset of the fog data during rainless period was used to investigate the effect of fog on soil moisture. A stochastic modeling framework was used to simulate the effect of fog on soil moisture dynamics. Our results showed that fog distribution can be characterized by a Poisson process with two parameters (arrival rate λ and average depth α (mm)). Fog and soil moisture observations from eighty (Aug 19, 2015-Nov 6, 2015) rainless days indicated a moderate positive relationship between soil moisture and fog in the Gobabeb gravel plains, a weaker relationship in the Gobabeb sand dunes while no relationship was observed at the Kleinberg site. The modeling results suggested that mean and major peaks of soil moisture dynamics can be captured by the fog modeling. Our field observations demonstrated the effects of fog on soil moisture dynamics during rainless periods at some locations, which has important implications on soil biogeochemical processes. The statistical characterization and modeling of fog distribution are of great value to predict fog distribution and investigate the effects of potential changes in fog distribution on soil moisture dynamics.

A Novel Machine Learning Classifier Based on a Qualia Modeling Agent (QMA)

DTIC Science & Technology

Information Theory (IIT) of Consciousness , which proposes that the fundamental structural elements of consciousness are qualia. By modeling the...This research develops a computational agent, which overcomes this problem. The Qualia Modeling Agent (QMA) is modeled after two cognitive theories

A Multiagent Based Model for Tactical Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-10-01

Pub. Co. 1985. [10] Castillo, J.M. Aproximación mediante procedimientos de Inteligencia Artificial al planeamiento táctico. Doctoral Thesis...been developed under the same conceptual model and using similar Artificial Intelligence Tools. We use four different stimulus/response agents in...The conceptual model is built on base of the Agents theory. To implement the different agents we have used Artificial Intelligence techniques such

Lapse of time effects on tax evasion in an agent-based econophysics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibold, Götz; Pickhardt, Michael

2013-05-01

We investigate an inhomogeneous Ising model in the context of tax evasion dynamics where different types of agents are parameterized via local temperatures and magnetic fields. In particular, we analyze the impact of lapse of time effects (i.e. backauditing) and endogenously determined penalty rates on tax compliance. Both features contribute to a microfoundation of agent-based econophysics models of tax evasion.

Agent-Based Modeling of Growth Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abraham, Ralph

2014-01-01

Growth processes abound in nature, and are frequently the target of modeling exercises in the sciences. In this article we illustrate an agent-based approach to modeling, in the case of a single example from the social sciences: bullying.

From Agents to Continuous Change via Aesthetics: Learning Mechanics with Visual Agent-Based Computational Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sengupta, Pratim; Farris, Amy Voss; Wright, Mason

2012-01-01

Novice learners find motion as a continuous process of change challenging to understand. In this paper, we present a pedagogical approach based on agent-based, visual programming to address this issue. Integrating agent-based programming, in particular, Logo programming, with curricular science has been shown to be challenging in previous research…

Environmental Assessment for Routine and Recurring Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Flight Operations at Edwards Air Force Base, California

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

grounds, spawning 28 sites, feeding sites, seasonal wetlands or drylands, water quality or quantity, host species or plant 29 pollinators , geological...cycles, and biotic interactions . As a 28 practical matter the guidance suggests that [environmental] assessments should focus on ecological 29...potential impacts were compared to the ten ecological 17 processes identified by the U.S. EPA and were found to be less than significant because of the

Final Environmental Assessment for the Integration and Developmental Testing of High Power Microwave Systems at Edwards Air Force Base

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-16

spawning sites, feeding sites, 20 seasonal wetlands or drylands, water quality or quantity, host species or plant pollinators , geological 21...rufus]). 12 These areas also contain relatively large areas of sensitive plants . 13 3.9.2.9 Significant Ecological Areas found within the R-2515 and...for complete aircraft, avionics systems, and integrated 21 airframe weapons support. Thus, HPM testing would continue the evolution of the primary

Modelling of robotic work cells using agent based-approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sękala, A.; Banaś, W.; Gwiazda, A.; Monica, Z.; Kost, G.; Hryniewicz, P.

2016-08-01

In the case of modern manufacturing systems the requirements, both according the scope and according characteristics of technical procedures are dynamically changing. This results in production system organization inability to keep up with changes in a market demand. Accordingly, there is a need for new design methods, characterized, on the one hand with a high efficiency and on the other with the adequate level of the generated organizational solutions. One of the tools that could be used for this purpose is the concept of agent systems. These systems are the tools of artificial intelligence. They allow assigning to agents the proper domains of procedures and knowledge so that they represent in a self-organizing system of an agent environment, components of a real system. The agent-based system for modelling robotic work cell should be designed taking into consideration many limitations considered with the characteristic of this production unit. It is possible to distinguish some grouped of structural components that constitute such a system. This confirms the structural complexity of a work cell as a specific production system. So it is necessary to develop agents depicting various aspects of the work cell structure. The main groups of agents that are used to model a robotic work cell should at least include next pattern representatives: machine tool agents, auxiliary equipment agents, robots agents, transport equipment agents, organizational agents as well as data and knowledge bases agents. In this way it is possible to create the holarchy of the agent-based system.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K.

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors.

PubMed

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Access Control for Cooperation Systems Based on Group Situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Minsoo; Joshi, James B. D.; Kim, Minkoo

Cooperation systems characterize many emerging environments such as ubiquitous and pervasive systems. Agent based cooperation systems have been proposed in the literature to address challenges of such emerging application environments. A key aspect of such agent based cooperation system is the group situation that changes dynamically and governs the requirements of the cooperation. While individual agent context is important, the overall cooperation behavior is more driven by the group context because of relationships and interactions between agents. Dynamic access control based on group situation is a crucial challenge in such cooperation systems. In this paper we propose a dynamic role based access control model for cooperation systems based on group situation. The model emphasizes capability based agent to role mapping and group situation based permission assignment to allow capturing dynamic access policies that evolve continuously.

Autonomous Mission Operations for Sensor Webs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Underbrink, A.; Witt, K.; Stanley, J.; Mandl, D.

2008-12-01

We present interim results of a 2005 ROSES AIST project entitled, "Using Intelligent Agents to Form a Sensor Web for Autonomous Mission Operations", or SWAMO. The goal of the SWAMO project is to shift the control of spacecraft missions from a ground-based, centrally controlled architecture to a collaborative, distributed set of intelligent agents. The network of intelligent agents intends to reduce management requirements by utilizing model-based system prediction and autonomic model/agent collaboration. SWAMO agents are distributed throughout the Sensor Web environment, which may include multiple spacecraft, aircraft, ground systems, and ocean systems, as well as manned operations centers. The agents monitor and manage sensor platforms, Earth sensing systems, and Earth sensing models and processes. The SWAMO agents form a Sensor Web of agents via peer-to-peer coordination. Some of the intelligent agents are mobile and able to traverse between on-orbit and ground-based systems. Other agents in the network are responsible for encapsulating system models to perform prediction of future behavior of the modeled subsystems and components to which they are assigned. The software agents use semantic web technologies to enable improved information sharing among the operational entities of the Sensor Web. The semantics include ontological conceptualizations of the Sensor Web environment, plus conceptualizations of the SWAMO agents themselves. By conceptualizations of the agents, we mean knowledge of their state, operational capabilities, current operational capacities, Web Service search and discovery results, agent collaboration rules, etc. The need for ontological conceptualizations over the agents is to enable autonomous and autonomic operations of the Sensor Web. The SWAMO ontology enables automated decision making and responses to the dynamic Sensor Web environment and to end user science requests. The current ontology is compatible with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) Sensor Model Language (SensorML) concepts and structures. The agents are currently deployed on the U.S. Naval Academy MidSTAR-1 satellite and are actively managing the power subsystem on-orbit without the need for human intervention.

Learning Natural Selection in 4th Grade with Multi-Agent-Based Computational Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate how elementary school students develop multi-level explanations of population dynamics in a simple predator-prey ecosystem, through scaffolded interactions with a multi-agent-based computational model (MABM). The term "agent" in an MABM indicates individual computational objects or actors (e.g., cars), and these…

Recent progress in econophysics: Chaos, leverage, and business cycles as revealed by agent-based modeling and human experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Chen; Huang, Ji-Ping

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling and controlled human experiments serve as two fundamental research methods in the field of econophysics. Agent-based modeling has been in development for over 20 years, but how to design virtual agents with high levels of human-like "intelligence" remains a challenge. On the other hand, experimental econophysics is an emerging field; however, there is a lack of experience and paradigms related to the field. Here, we review some of the most recent research results obtained through the use of these two methods concerning financial problems such as chaos, leverage, and business cycles. We also review the principles behind assessments of agents' intelligence levels, and some relevant designs for human experiments. The main theme of this review is to show that by combining theory, agent-based modeling, and controlled human experiments, one can garner more reliable and credible results on account of a better verification of theory; accordingly, this way, a wider range of economic and financial problems and phenomena can be studied.

Kinetic theory of situated agents applied to pedestrian flow in a corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangel-Huerta, A.; Muñoz-Meléndez, A.

2010-03-01

A situated agent-based model for simulation of pedestrian flow in a corridor is presented. In this model, pedestrians choose their paths freely and make decisions based on local criteria for solving collision conflicts. The crowd consists of multiple walking agents equipped with a function of perception as well as a competitive rule-based strategy that enables pedestrians to reach free access areas. Pedestrians in our model are autonomous entities capable of perceiving and making decisions. They apply socially accepted conventions, such as avoidance rules, as well as individual preferences such as the use of specific exit points, or the execution of eventual comfort turns resulting in spontaneous changes of walking speed. Periodic boundary conditions were considered in order to determine the density-average walking speed, and the density-average activity with respect to specific parameters: comfort angle turn and frequency of angle turn of walking agents. The main contribution of this work is an agent-based model where each pedestrian is represented as an autonomous agent. At the same time the pedestrian crowd dynamics is framed by the kinetic theory of biological systems.

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

PubMed

Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

2018-03-20

Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of several macro metrics of interest: an epidemic curve, a risk perception curve, and a distribution of different types of coping strategies over time. Our results emphasize the importance of integrating behavioral aspects of decision making under risk into spatial disease ABMs using machine learning algorithms. This is especially relevant when studying cumulative impacts of behavioral changes and possible intervention strategies.

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Agent-Based Models in Social Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quang, Le Anh; Jung, Nam; Cho, Eun Sung; Choi, Jae Han; Lee, Jae Woo

2018-06-01

We review the agent-based models (ABM) on social physics including econophysics. The ABM consists of agent, system space, and external environment. The agent is autonomous and decides his/her behavior by interacting with the neighbors or the external environment with the rules of behavior. Agents are irrational because they have only limited information when they make decisions. They adapt using learning from past memories. Agents have various attributes and are heterogeneous. ABM is a non-equilibrium complex system that exhibits various emergence phenomena. The social complexity ABM describes human behavioral characteristics. In ABMs of econophysics, we introduce the Sugarscape model and the artificial market models. We review minority games and majority games in ABMs of game theory. Social flow ABM introduces crowding, evacuation, traffic congestion, and pedestrian dynamics. We also review ABM for opinion dynamics and voter model. We discuss features and advantages and disadvantages of Netlogo, Repast, Swarm, and Mason, which are representative platforms for implementing ABM.

Reverse engineering a social agent-based hidden markov model--visage.

PubMed

Chen, Hung-Ching Justin; Goldberg, Mark; Magdon-Ismail, Malik; Wallace, William A

2008-12-01

We present a machine learning approach to discover the agent dynamics that drives the evolution of the social groups in a community. We set up the problem by introducing an agent-based hidden Markov model for the agent dynamics: an agent's actions are determined by micro-laws. Nonetheless, We learn the agent dynamics from the observed communications without knowing state transitions. Our approach is to identify the appropriate micro-laws corresponding to an identification of the appropriate parameters in the model. The model identification problem is then formulated as a mixed optimization problem. To solve the problem, we develop a multistage learning process for determining the group structure, the group evolution, and the micro-laws of a community based on the observed set of communications among actors, without knowing the semantic contents. Finally, to test the quality of our approximations and the feasibility of the approach, we present the results of extensive experiments on synthetic data as well as the results on real communities, such as Enron email and Movie newsgroups. Insight into agent dynamics helps us understand the driving forces behind social evolution.

Assessment of spatial distribution of soil heavy metals using ANN-GA, MSLR and satellite imagery.

PubMed

Naderi, Arman; Delavar, Mohammad Amir; Kaboudin, Babak; Askari, Mohammad Sadegh

2017-05-01

This study aims to assess and compare heavy metal distribution models developed using stepwise multiple linear regression (MSLR) and neural network-genetic algorithm model (ANN-GA) based on satellite imagery. The source identification of heavy metals was also explored using local Moran index. Soil samples (n = 300) were collected based on a grid and pH, organic matter, clay, iron oxide contents cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) concentrations were determined for each sample. Visible/near-infrared reflectance (VNIR) within the electromagnetic ranges of satellite imagery was applied to estimate heavy metal concentrations in the soil using MSLR and ANN-GA models. The models were evaluated and ANN-GA model demonstrated higher accuracy, and the autocorrelation results showed higher significant clusters of heavy metals around the industrial zone. The higher concentration of Cd, Pb and Zn was noted under industrial lands and irrigation farming in comparison to barren and dryland farming. Accumulation of industrial wastes in roads and streams was identified as main sources of pollution, and the concentration of soil heavy metals was reduced by increasing the distance from these sources. In comparison to MLSR, ANN-GA provided a more accurate indirect assessment of heavy metal concentrations in highly polluted soils. The clustering analysis provided reliable information about the spatial distribution of soil heavy metals and their sources.

Proceedings 3rd NASA/IEEE Workshop on Formal Approaches to Agent-Based Systems (FAABS-III)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinchey, Michael (Editor); Rash, James (Editor); Truszkowski, Walt (Editor); Rouff, Christopher (Editor)

2004-01-01

These preceedings contain 18 papers and 4 poster presentation, covering topics such as: multi-agent systems, agent-based control, formalism, norms, as well as physical and biological models of agent-based systems. Some applications presented in the proceedings include systems analysis, software engineering, computer networks and robot control.

Chronic Heart Failure Follow-up Management Based on Agent Technology

PubMed Central

Safdari, Reza

2015-01-01

Objectives Monitoring heart failure patients through continues assessment of sign and symptoms by information technology tools lead to large reduction in re-hospitalization. Agent technology is one of the strongest artificial intelligence areas; therefore, it can be expected to facilitate, accelerate, and improve health services especially in home care and telemedicine. The aim of this article is to provide an agent-based model for chronic heart failure (CHF) follow-up management. Methods This research was performed in 2013-2014 to determine appropriate scenarios and the data required to monitor and follow-up CHF patients, and then an agent-based model was designed. Results Agents in the proposed model perform the following tasks: medical data access, communication with other agents of the framework and intelligent data analysis, including medical data processing, reasoning, negotiation for decision-making, and learning capabilities. Conclusions The proposed multi-agent system has ability to learn and thus improve itself. Implementation of this model with more and various interval times at a broader level could achieve better results. The proposed multi-agent system is no substitute for cardiologists, but it could assist them in decision-making. PMID:26618038

Foundations of “new” social science: Institutional legitimacy from philosophy, complexity science, postmodernism, and agent-based modeling

PubMed Central

Henrickson, Leslie; McKelvey, Bill

2002-01-01

Since the death of positivism in the 1970s, philosophers have turned their attention to scientific realism, evolutionary epistemology, and the Semantic Conception of Theories. Building on these trends, Campbellian Realism allows social scientists to accept real-world phenomena as criterion variables against which theories may be tested without denying the reality of individual interpretation and social construction. The Semantic Conception reduces the importance of axioms, but reaffirms the role of models and experiments. Philosophers now see models as “autonomous agents” that exert independent influence on the development of a science, in addition to theory and data. The inappropriate molding effects of math models on social behavior modeling are noted. Complexity science offers a “new” normal science epistemology focusing on order creation by self-organizing heterogeneous agents and agent-based models. The more responsible core of postmodernism builds on the idea that agents operate in a constantly changing web of interconnections among other agents. The connectionist agent-based models of complexity science draw on the same conception of social ontology as do postmodernists. These recent developments combine to provide foundations for a “new” social science centered on formal modeling not requiring the mathematical assumptions of agent homogeneity and equilibrium conditions. They give this “new” social science legitimacy in scientific circles that current social science approaches lack. PMID:12011408

Market-oriented Programming Using Small-world Networks for Controlling Building Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shigei, Noritaka; Miyajima, Hiromi; Osako, Tsukasa

The market model, which is one of the economic activity models, is modeled as an agent system, and applying the model to the resource allocation problem has been studied. For air conditioning control of building, which is one of the resource allocation problems, an effective method based on the agent system using auction has been proposed for traditional PID controller. On the other hand, it has been considered that this method is performed by decentralized control. However, its decentralization is not perfect, and its performace is not enough. In this paper, firstly, we propose a perfectly decentralized agent model and show its performance. Secondly, in order to improve the model, we propose the agent model based on small-world model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is shown by simulation.

A Two-Stage Multi-Agent Based Assessment Approach to Enhance Students' Learning Motivation through Negotiated Skills Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chadli, Abdelhafid; Bendella, Fatima; Tranvouez, Erwan

2015-01-01

In this paper we present an Agent-based evaluation approach in a context of Multi-agent simulation learning systems. Our evaluation model is based on a two stage assessment approach: (1) a Distributed skill evaluation combining agents and fuzzy sets theory; and (2) a Negotiation based evaluation of students' performance during a training…

Mathematical modeling of malaria infection with innate and adaptive immunity in individuals and agent-based communities.

PubMed

Gurarie, David; Karl, Stephan; Zimmerman, Peter A; King, Charles H; St Pierre, Timothy G; Davis, Timothy M E

2012-01-01

Agent-based modeling of Plasmodium falciparum infection offers an attractive alternative to the conventional Ross-Macdonald methodology, as it allows simulation of heterogeneous communities subjected to realistic transmission (inoculation patterns). We developed a new, agent based model that accounts for the essential in-host processes: parasite replication and its regulation by innate and adaptive immunity. The model also incorporates a simplified version of antigenic variation by Plasmodium falciparum. We calibrated the model using data from malaria-therapy (MT) studies, and developed a novel calibration procedure that accounts for a deterministic and a pseudo-random component in the observed parasite density patterns. Using the parasite density patterns of 122 MT patients, we generated a large number of calibrated parameters. The resulting data set served as a basis for constructing and simulating heterogeneous agent-based (AB) communities of MT-like hosts. We conducted several numerical experiments subjecting AB communities to realistic inoculation patterns reported from previous field studies, and compared the model output to the observed malaria prevalence in the field. There was overall consistency, supporting the potential of this agent-based methodology to represent transmission in realistic communities. Our approach represents a novel, convenient and versatile method to model Plasmodium falciparum infection.

Aeolian Processes and the Biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravi, Sujith; D'Odorico, Paolo; Breshears, David D.; Field, Jason P.; Goudie, Andrew S.; Huxman, Travis E.; Li, Junran; Okin, Gregory S.; Swap, Robert J.; Thomas, Andrew D.; Van Pelt, Scott; Whicker, Jeffrey J.; Zobeck, Ted M.

2011-08-01

Aeolian processes affect the biosphere in a wide variety of contexts, including landform evolution, biogeochemical cycles, regional climate, human health, and desertification. Collectively, research on aeolian processes and the biosphere is developing rapidly in many diverse and specialized areas, but integration of these recent advances is needed to better address management issues and to set future research priorities. Here we review recent literature on aeolian processes and their interactions with the biosphere, focusing on (1) geography of dust emissions, (2) impacts, interactions, and feedbacks, (3) drivers of dust emissions, and (4) methodological approaches. Geographically, dust emissions are highly spatially variable but also provide connectivity at global scales between sources and effects, with “hot spots” being of particular concern. Recent research reveals that aeolian processes have impacts, interactions, and feedbacks at a variety of scales, including large-scale dust transport and global biogeochemical cycles, climate mediated interactions between atmospheric dust and ecosystems, impacts on human health, impacts on agriculture, and interactions between aeolian processes and dryland vegetation. Aeolian dust emissions are driven largely by, in addition to climate, a combination of soil properties, soil moisture, vegetation and roughness, biological and physical crusts, and disturbances. Aeolian research methods span laboratory and field techniques, modeling, and remote sensing. Together these integrated perspectives on aeolian processes and the biosphere provide insights into management options and aid in identifying research priorities, both of which are increasingly important given that global climate models predict an increase in aridity in many dryland systems of the world.

Examining the Impact of the Walking School Bus With an Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Diez-Roux, Ana; Evenson, Kelly R.; Colabianchi, Natalie

2014-01-01

We used an agent-based model to examine the impact of the walking school bus (WSB) on children’s active travel to school. We identified a synergistic effect of the WSB with other intervention components such as an educational campaign designed to improve attitudes toward active travel to school. Results suggest that to maximize active travel to school, children should arrive on time at “bus stops” to allow faster WSB walking speeds. We also illustrate how an agent-based model can be used to identify the location of routes maximizing the effects of the WSB on active travel. Agent-based models can be used to examine plausible effects of the WSB on active travel to school under various conditions and to identify ways of implementing the WSB that maximize its effectiveness. PMID:24832410

The agro-ecological suitability of Atriplex nummularia and A. halimus for biomass production in Argentine saline drylands.

PubMed

Falasca, Silvia Liliana; Pizarro, María José; Mezher, Romina Nahir

2014-09-01

The choice of the best species to cultivate in semi-arid and arid climates is of fundamental importance, and is determined by many factors, including temperature and rainfall, soil type, water availability for irrigation and crop purposes. Soil or water salinity represents one of the major causes of crop stress. Species of the genus Atriplex are characterized by high biomass productivity, high tolerance to drought and salinity, and high efficiency in use of solar radiation and water. Based on a search of the international literature, the authors outline an agro-climatic zoning model to determine potential production areas in Argentina for Atriplex halimus and Atriplex numularia. Using the agroclimatic limits presented in this work, this model may be applied to any part of the world. When superimposed on the saline areas map, the agroclimatic map shows the suitability of agro-ecological zoning for both species for energy purposes on land unsuitable for food production. This innovative study was based on the implementation of a geographic information system that can be updated by further incorporation of complementary information, with consequent improvement of the original database.

The agro-ecological suitability of Atriplex nummularia and A. halimus for biomass production in Argentine saline drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, Silvia Liliana; Pizarro, María José; Mezher, Romina Nahir

2014-09-01

The choice of the best species to cultivate in semi-arid and arid climates is of fundamental importance, and is determined by many factors, including temperature and rainfall, soil type, water availability for irrigation and crop purposes. Soil or water salinity represents one of the major causes of crop stress. Species of the genus Atriplex are characterized by high biomass productivity, high tolerance to drought and salinity, and high efficiency in use of solar radiation and water. Based on a search of the international literature, the authors outline an agro-climatic zoning model to determine potential production areas in Argentina for Atriplex halimus and Atriplex numularia. Using the agroclimatic limits presented in this work, this model may be applied to any part of the world. When superimposed on the saline areas map, the agroclimatic map shows the suitability of agro-ecological zoning for both species for energy purposes on land unsuitable for food production. This innovative study was based on the implementation of a geographic information system that can be updated by further incorporation of complementary information, with consequent improvement of the original database.

Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julia; Dong, Jinwei; Kato, Etsushi; Jain, Atul K.; Wiltshire, Andy; Stocker, Benjamin D.

2016-12-01

Carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is increasing along with the rising of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Embedded in this trend, recent studies suggested that the interannual variability (IAV) of global carbon fluxes may be dominated by semi-arid ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms of this high variability in these specific regions are not well known. Here we derive an ensemble of gross primary production (GPP) estimates using the average of three data-driven models and eleven process-based models. These models are weighted by their spatial representativeness of the satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). We then use this weighted GPP ensemble to investigate the GPP variability for different aridity regimes. We show that semi-arid regions contribute to 57% of the detrended IAV of global GPP. Moreover, in regions with higher GPP variability, GPP fluctuations are mostly controlled by precipitation and strongly coupled with evapotranspiration (ET). This higher GPP IAV in semi-arid regions is co-limited by supply (precipitation)-induced ET variability and GPP-ET coupling strength. Our results demonstrate the importance of semi-arid regions to the global terrestrial carbon cycle and posit that there will be larger GPP and ET variations in the future with changes in precipitation patterns and dryland expansion.

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julian; Dong, Jinwei;

Using Agent Base Models to Optimize Large Scale Network for Large System Inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shameldin, Ramez Ahmed; Bowling, Shannon R.

2010-01-01

The aim of this paper is to use Agent Base Models (ABM) to optimize large scale network handling capabilities for large system inventories and to implement strategies for the purpose of reducing capital expenses. The models used in this paper either use computational algorithms or procedure implementations developed by Matlab to simulate agent based models in a principal programming language and mathematical theory using clusters, these clusters work as a high performance computational performance to run the program in parallel computational. In both cases, a model is defined as compilation of a set of structures and processes assumed to underlie the behavior of a network system.

Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning Model for Effective Action Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youk, Sang Jo; Lee, Bong Keun

Reinforcement learning is a sub area of machine learning concerned with how an agent ought to take actions in an environment so as to maximize some notion of long-term reward. In the case of multi-agent, especially, which state space and action space gets very enormous in compared to single agent, so it needs to take most effective measure available select the action strategy for effective reinforcement learning. This paper proposes a multi-agent reinforcement learning model based on fuzzy inference system in order to improve learning collect speed and select an effective action in multi-agent. This paper verifies an effective action select strategy through evaluation tests based on Robocop Keep away which is one of useful test-beds for multi-agent. Our proposed model can apply to evaluate efficiency of the various intelligent multi-agents and also can apply to strategy and tactics of robot soccer system.

Inferring local competition intensity from patch size distributions: a test using biological soil crusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowker, Matthew A.; Maestre, Fernando T.

2012-01-01

Dryland vegetation is inherently patchy. This patchiness goes on to impact ecology, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Recently, researchers have proposed that dryland vegetation patch sizes follow a power law which is due to local plant facilitation. It is unknown what patch size distribution prevails when competition predominates over facilitation, or if such a pattern could be used to detect competition. We investigated this question in an alternative vegetation type, mosses and lichens of biological soil crusts, which exhibit a smaller scale patch-interpatch configuration. This micro-vegetation is characterized by competition for space. We proposed that multiplicative effects of genetics, environment and competition should result in a log-normal patch size distribution. When testing the prevalence of log-normal versus power law patch size distributions, we found that the log-normal was the better distribution in 53% of cases and a reasonable fit in 83%. In contrast, the power law was better in 39% of cases, and in 8% of instances both distributions fit equally well. We further hypothesized that the log-normal distribution parameters would be predictably influenced by competition strength. There was qualitative agreement between one of the distribution's parameters (μ) and a novel intransitive (lacking a 'best' competitor) competition index, suggesting that as intransitivity increases, patch sizes decrease. The correlation of μ with other competition indicators based on spatial segregation of species (the C-score) depended on aridity. In less arid sites, μ was negatively correlated with the C-score (suggesting smaller patches under stronger competition), while positive correlations (suggesting larger patches under stronger competition) were observed at more arid sites. We propose that this is due to an increasing prevalence of competition transitivity as aridity increases. These findings broaden the emerging theory surrounding dryland patch size distributions and, with refinement, may help us infer cryptic ecological processes from easily observed spatial patterns in the field.

Adaptive livelihood strategies for coping with water scarcity in the drylands of central Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liwenga, Emma T.

In this paper, it is argued that local knowledge for adapting to water scarcity is important for integrated resource management by taking into consideration both the natural and social constraints in a particular setting based on accumulated experience. The paper examines the relevance of local knowledge in sustaining agricultural production in the semiarid areas of central Tanzania. The paper specifically focuses on how water scarcity, as the major limiting factor, is addressed in the study area using local knowledge to sustain livelihoods of its people. The study was conducted in four villages; Mzula, Ilolo, Chanhumba and Ngahelezi, situation in Mvumi Division in Dodoma Region. The study mainly employed qualitative data collection techniques. Participatory methods provided a means of exploring perceptions and gaining deeper insights regarding natural resource utilization in terms of problems and opportunities. The main data sources drawn upon in this study were documentation, group interviews and field observations. Group interviews involved discussions with a group of 6-12 people selected on the basis of gender, age and socio-economic groups. Data analysis entailed structural and content analysis within the adaptive livelihood framework in relation to management of water scarcity using local knowledge. The findings confirm that rainfall is the main limiting factor for agricultural activities in the drylands of Central Tanzania. As such, local communities have developed, through time, indigenous knowledge to cope with such environments utilizing seasonality and diversity of landscapes. Use of this local knowledge is therefore effective in managing water scarcity by ensuring a continuous production of crops throughout the year. This practice implies increased food availability and accessibility through sales of such agricultural products. Local innovations for water management, such as cultivation in sandy rivers, appear to be very important means of accessing water in these dryland areas. It can therefore be concluded that utilization of local knowledge has wide impact on integrated water resource management. These implications are important considerations for development of adaptive water system innovations at community level.

Acute photosensitisation and mortality in a herd of dairy cattle in Tasmania.

PubMed

Golder, H M; Moss, N; Rogers, G; Jackson, B; Gannon, N; Wong, Ptw; Lean, I J

2017-01-01

A herd of Holstein, Jersey, or Holstein-Jersey cross lactating cattle of mixed ages presented with a sudden drop in milk yield in 94/678 cows on 3 October 2014 (Day 0). The herd was located in Gretna in the Derwent Valley (Tasmania, Australia) and had been grazing dryland pasture. On Day 0 the cows variably showed recumbency, peracute photosensitisation, inflamed coronary bands, conjunctival erythema, periauricular oedema, distress indicated by kicking at the flank, bruxism, discomfort, weight shifting, vocalisation indicating pain and depression. Blood samples collected on Day 4 from five clinically affected cows showed high activities of aspartate aminotransferase, glutamate dehydrogenase and gamma-glutamyl transferase. Morbidity, based on the number of treated cases within 72 hours of clinical onset, was estimated at 165/678 cows (24.3%). Mortality over the first 30 days was 19/678 cows (2.8%). Necropsies of two cows on Day 4 showed marked distension of the gall bladder and extensive icterus. Necropsies of another two cows on Day 5 showed enlarged livers with severe damage and oedema of the distal abomasum. Severe ulcerative abomasal gastritis was present in both cows. Hepatic histopathology was consistent with chronic cholangiohepatitis. Fifty-five different mycotoxins were detected from a barley grass (Hordeum murinum) sample from the presumably contaminated pasture. Concentrations of B-trichothecenes, fumonisins, and zearalenone metabolites from this sample were remarkably high. The leaf smut, Jamesdicksonia dactylidis, that has not been previously reported in Tasmania, was identified from the sample of barley grass, but it is not known whether the smut can produce toxins. Probably an undescribed peracute mycotoxicosis associated with the ingestion of contaminated dryland pasture. A definitive diagnosis could not be reached in this case of acute photosensitisation and mortality in dairy cattle grazing possibly contaminated dryland pasture. The findings differed from both facial eczema and acute bovine liver disease, suggesting an undescribed mycotoxicosis.

Using Model Replication to Improve the Reliability of Agent-Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wei; Kim, Yushim

The basic presupposition of model replication activities for a computational model such as an agent-based model (ABM) is that, as a robust and reliable tool, it must be replicable in other computing settings. This assumption has recently gained attention in the community of artificial society and simulation due to the challenges of model verification and validation. Illustrating the replication of an ABM representing fraudulent behavior in a public service delivery system originally developed in the Java-based MASON toolkit for NetLogo by a different author, this paper exemplifies how model replication exercises provide unique opportunities for model verification and validation process. At the same time, it helps accumulate best practices and patterns of model replication and contributes to the agenda of developing a standard methodological protocol for agent-based social simulation.

An Agent Based Collaborative Simplification of 3D Mesh Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li-Rong; Yu, Bo; Hagiwara, Ichiro

Large-volume mesh model faces the challenge in fast rendering and transmission by Internet. The current mesh models obtained by using three-dimensional (3D) scanning technology are usually very large in data volume. This paper develops a mobile agent based collaborative environment on the development platform of mobile-C. Communication among distributed agents includes grasping image of visualized mesh model, annotation to grasped image and instant message. Remote and collaborative simplification can be efficiently conducted by Internet.

A framework for the use of agent based modeling to simulate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Simulation of human behavior in exposure modeling is a complex task. Traditionally, inter-individual variation in human activity has been modeled by drawing from a pool of single day time-activity diaries such as the US EPA Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD). Here, an agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate population distributions of longitudinal patterns of four macro activities (sleeping, eating, working, and commuting) in populations of adults over a period of one year. In this ABM, an individual is modeled as an agent whose movement through time and space is determined by a set of decision rules. The rules are based on the agent having time-varying “needs” that are satisfied by performing actions. Needs are modeled as increasing over time, and taking an action reduces the need. Need-satisfying actions include sleeping (meeting the need for rest), eating (meeting the need for food), and commuting/working (meeting the need for income). Every time an action is completed, the model determines the next action the agent will take based on the magnitude of each of the agent’s needs at that point in time. Different activities advertise their ability to satisfy various needs of the agent (such as food to eat or sleeping in a bed or on a couch). The model then chooses the activity that satisfies the greatest of the agent’s needs. When multiple actions could address a need, the model will choose the most effective of the actions (bed over the couc

Hybrid evolutionary computing model for mobile agents of wireless Internet multimedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hortos, William S.

2001-03-01

The ecosystem is used as an evolutionary paradigm of natural laws for the distributed information retrieval via mobile agents to allow the computational load to be added to server nodes of wireless networks, while reducing the traffic on communication links. Based on the Food Web model, a set of computational rules of natural balance form the outer stage to control the evolution of mobile agents providing multimedia services with a wireless Internet protocol WIP. The evolutionary model shows how mobile agents should behave with the WIP, in particular, how mobile agents can cooperate, compete and learn from each other, based on an underlying competition for radio network resources to establish the wireless connections to support the quality of service QoS of user requests. Mobile agents are also allowed to clone themselves, propagate and communicate with other agents. A two-layer model is proposed for agent evolution: the outer layer is based on the law of natural balancing, the inner layer is based on a discrete version of a Kohonen self-organizing feature map SOFM to distribute network resources to meet QoS requirements. The former is embedded in the higher OSI layers of the WIP, while the latter is used in the resource management procedures of Layer 2 and 3 of the protocol. Algorithms for the distributed computation of mobile agent evolutionary behavior are developed by adding a learning state to the agent evolution state diagram. When an agent is in an indeterminate state, it can communicate to other agents. Computing models can be replicated from other agents. Then the agents transitions to the mutating state to wait for a new information-retrieval goal. When a wireless terminal or station lacks a network resource, an agent in the suspending state can change its policy to submit to the environment before it transitions to the searching state. The agents learn the facts of agent state information entered into an external database. In the cloning process, two agents on a host station sharing a common goal can be merged or married to compose a new agent. Application of the two-layer set of algorithms for mobile agent evolution, performed in a distributed processing environment, is made to the QoS management functions of the IP multimedia IM sub-network of the third generation 3G Wideband Code-division Multiple Access W-CDMA wireless network.

A task-based support architecture for developing point-of-care clinical decision support systems for the emergency department.

PubMed

Wilk, S; Michalowski, W; O'Sullivan, D; Farion, K; Sayyad-Shirabad, J; Kuziemsky, C; Kukawka, B

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to create a task-based support architecture for developing clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) that assist physicians in making decisions at the point-of-care in the emergency department (ED). The backbone of the proposed architecture was established by a task-based emergency workflow model for a patient-physician encounter. The architecture was designed according to an agent-oriented paradigm. Specifically, we used the O-MaSE (Organization-based Multi-agent System Engineering) method that allows for iterative translation of functional requirements into architectural components (e.g., agents). The agent-oriented paradigm was extended with ontology-driven design to implement ontological models representing knowledge required by specific agents to operate. The task-based architecture allows for the creation of a CDSS that is aligned with the task-based emergency workflow model. It facilitates decoupling of executable components (agents) from embedded domain knowledge (ontological models), thus supporting their interoperability, sharing, and reuse. The generic architecture was implemented as a pilot system, MET3-AE--a CDSS to help with the management of pediatric asthma exacerbation in the ED. The system was evaluated in a hospital ED. The architecture allows for the creation of a CDSS that integrates support for all tasks from the task-based emergency workflow model, and interacts with hospital information systems. Proposed architecture also allows for reusing and sharing system components and knowledge across disease-specific CDSSs.

A spatial web/agent-based model to support stakeholders' negotiation regarding land development.

PubMed

Pooyandeh, Majeed; Marceau, Danielle J

2013-11-15

Decision making in land management can be greatly enhanced if the perspectives of concerned stakeholders are taken into consideration. This often implies negotiation in order to reach an agreement based on the examination of multiple alternatives. This paper describes a spatial web/agent-based modeling system that was developed to support the negotiation process of stakeholders regarding land development in southern Alberta, Canada. This system integrates a fuzzy analytic hierarchy procedure within an agent-based model in an interactive visualization environment provided through a web interface to facilitate the learning and negotiation of the stakeholders. In the pre-negotiation phase, the stakeholders compare their evaluation criteria using linguistic expressions. Due to the uncertainty and fuzzy nature of such comparisons, a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to prioritize the criteria. The negotiation starts by a development plan being submitted by a user (stakeholder) through the web interface. An agent called the proposer, which represents the proposer of the plan, receives this plan and starts negotiating with all other agents. The negotiation is conducted in a step-wise manner where the agents change their attitudes by assigning a new set of weights to their criteria. If an agreement is not achieved, a new location for development is proposed by the proposer agent. This process is repeated until a location is found that satisfies all agents to a certain predefined degree. To evaluate the performance of the model, the negotiation was simulated with four agents, one of which being the proposer agent, using two hypothetical development plans. The first plan was selected randomly; the other one was chosen in an area that is of high importance to one of the agents. While the agents managed to achieve an agreement about the location of the land development after three rounds of negotiation in the first scenario, seven rounds were required in the second scenario. The proposed web/agent-based model facilitates the interaction and learning among stakeholders when facing multiple alternatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agent Based Modeling Applications for Geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, J. S.

2004-12-01

Agent-based modeling techniques have successfully been applied to systems in which complex behaviors or outcomes arise from varied interactions between individuals in the system. Each individual interacts with its environment, as well as with other individuals, by following a set of relatively simple rules. Traditionally this "bottom-up" modeling approach has been applied to problems in the fields of economics and sociology, but more recently has been introduced to various disciplines in the geosciences. This technique can help explain the origin of complex processes from a relatively simple set of rules, incorporate large and detailed datasets when they exist, and simulate the effects of extreme events on system-wide behavior. Some of the challenges associated with this modeling method include: significant computational requirements in order to keep track of thousands to millions of agents, methods and strategies of model validation are lacking, as is a formal methodology for evaluating model uncertainty. Challenges specific to the geosciences, include how to define agents that control water, contaminant fluxes, climate forcing and other physical processes and how to link these "geo-agents" into larger agent-based simulations that include social systems such as demographics economics and regulations. Effective management of limited natural resources (such as water, hydrocarbons, or land) requires an understanding of what factors influence the demand for these resources on a regional and temporal scale. Agent-based models can be used to simulate this demand across a variety of sectors under a range of conditions and determine effective and robust management policies and monitoring strategies. The recent focus on the role of biological processes in the geosciences is another example of an area that could benefit from agent-based applications. A typical approach to modeling the effect of biological processes in geologic media has been to represent these processes in a thermodynamic framework as a set of reactions that roll-up the integrated effect that diverse biological communities exert on a geological system. This approach may work well to predict the effect of certain biological communities in specific environments in which experimental data is available. However, it does not further our knowledge of how the geobiological system actually functions on a micro scale. Agent-based techniques may provide a framework to explore the fundamental interactions required to explain the system-wide behavior. This presentation will present a survey of several promising applications of agent-based modeling approaches to problems in the geosciences and describe specific contributions to some of the inherent challenges facing this approach.

A knowledge base architecture for distributed knowledge agents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riedesel, Joel; Walls, Bryan

1990-01-01

A tuple space based object oriented model for knowledge base representation and interpretation is presented. An architecture for managing distributed knowledge agents is then implemented within the model. The general model is based upon a database implementation of a tuple space. Objects are then defined as an additional layer upon the database. The tuple space may or may not be distributed depending upon the database implementation. A language for representing knowledge and inference strategy is defined whose implementation takes advantage of the tuple space. The general model may then be instantiated in many different forms, each of which may be a distinct knowledge agent. Knowledge agents may communicate using tuple space mechanisms as in the LINDA model as well as using more well known message passing mechanisms. An implementation of the model is presented describing strategies used to keep inference tractable without giving up expressivity. An example applied to a power management and distribution network for Space Station Freedom is given.

Brahms Mobile Agents: Architecture and Field Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clancey, William J.; Sierhuis, Maarten; Kaskiris, Charis; vanHoof, Ron

2002-01-01

We have developed a model-based, distributed architecture that integrates diverse components in a system designed for lunar and planetary surface operations: an astronaut's space suit, cameras, rover/All-Terrain Vehicle (ATV), robotic assistant, other personnel in a local habitat, and a remote mission support team (with time delay). Software processes, called agents, implemented in the Brahms language, run on multiple, mobile platforms. These mobile agents interpret and transform available data to help people and robotic systems coordinate their actions to make operations more safe and efficient. The Brahms-based mobile agent architecture (MAA) uses a novel combination of agent types so the software agents may understand and facilitate communications between people and between system components. A state-of-the-art spoken dialogue interface is integrated with Brahms models, supporting a speech-driven field observation record and rover command system (e.g., return here later and bring this back to the habitat ). This combination of agents, rover, and model-based spoken dialogue interface constitutes a personal assistant. An important aspect of the methodology involves first simulating the entire system in Brahms, then configuring the agents into a run-time system.

An equation-free approach to agent-based computation: Bifurcation analysis and control of stationary states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, C. I.; Gear, C. W.; Kevrekidis, I. G.

2012-08-01

We show how the equation-free approach can be exploited to enable agent-based simulators to perform system-level computations such as bifurcation, stability analysis and controller design. We illustrate these tasks through an event-driven agent-based model describing the dynamic behaviour of many interacting investors in the presence of mimesis. Using short bursts of appropriately initialized runs of the detailed, agent-based simulator, we construct the coarse-grained bifurcation diagram of the (expected) density of agents and investigate the stability of its multiple solution branches. When the mimetic coupling between agents becomes strong enough, the stable stationary state loses its stability at a coarse turning point bifurcation. We also demonstrate how the framework can be used to design a wash-out dynamic controller that stabilizes open-loop unstable stationary states even under model uncertainty.