Calculation of Individual Tree Water Use in a Bornean Tropical Rain Forest Using Individual-Based Dynamic Vegetation Model SEIB-DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Saito, T.; Matsumoto, K.; Kume, T.; Nakagawa, M.; Sato, H.

2015-12-01

Bornean tropical rain forests are among the moistest biomes of the world with abundant rainfall throughout the year, and considered to be vulnerable to a change in the rainfall regime; e.g., high tree mortality was reported in such forests induced by a severe drought associated with the ENSO event in 1997-1998. In order to assess the effect (risk) of future climate change on eco-hydrology in such tropical rain forests, it is important to understand the water use of trees individually, because the vulnerability or mortality of trees against climate change can depend on the size of trees. Therefore, we refined the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEIB-DGVM) so that the transpiration and its control by stomata are calculated for each individual tree. By using this model, we simulated the transpiration of each tree and its DBH-size dependency, and successfully reproduced the measured data of sap flow of trees and eddy covariance flux data obtained in a Bornean lowland tropical rain forest in Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia.

Environmental controls in the water use patterns of a tropical cloud forest tree species, Drimys brasiliensis (Winteraceae).

PubMed

Eller, Cleiton B; Burgess, Stephen S O; Oliveira, Rafael S

2015-04-01

Trees from tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) display very dynamic patterns of water use. They are capable of downwards water transport towards the soil during leaf-wetting events, likely a consequence of foliar water uptake (FWU), as well as high rates of night-time transpiration (Enight) during drier nights. These two processes might represent important sources of water losses and gains to the plant, but little is known about the environmental factors controlling these water fluxes. We evaluated how contrasting atmospheric and soil water conditions control diurnal, nocturnal and seasonal dynamics of sap flow in Drimys brasiliensis (Miers), a common Neotropical cloud forest species. We monitored the seasonal variation of soil water content, micrometeorological conditions and sap flow of D. brasiliensis trees in the field during wet and dry seasons. We also conducted a greenhouse experiment exposing D. brasiliensis saplings under contrasting soil water conditions to deuterium-labelled fog water. We found that during the night D. brasiliensis possesses heightened stomatal sensitivity to soil drought and vapour pressure deficit, which reduces night-time water loss. Leaf-wetting events had a strong suppressive effect on tree transpiration (E). Foliar water uptake increased in magnitude with drier soil and during longer leaf-wetting events. The difference between diurnal and nocturnal stomatal behaviour in D. brasiliensis could be attributed to an optimization of carbon gain when leaves are dry, as well as minimization of nocturnal water loss. The leaf-wetting events on the other hand seem important to D. brasiliensis water balance, especially during soil droughts, both by suppressing tree transpiration (E) and as a small additional water supply through FWU. Our results suggest that decreases in leaf-wetting events in TMCF might increase D. brasiliensis water loss and decrease its water gains, which could compromise its ecophysiological performance and survival during dry periods. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Stand-structural effects on Heterobasidion abietinum-related mortality following drought events in Abies pinsapo.

PubMed

Linares, Juan Carlos; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Bowker, Matthew A; Ochoa, Victoria; Carreira, José Antonio

2010-12-01

Climate change may affect tree-pathogen interactions. This possibility has important implications for drought-prone forests, where stand dynamics and disease pathogenicity are especially sensitive to climatic stress. In addition, stand structural attributes including density-dependent tree-to-tree competition may modulate the stands' resistance to drought events and pathogen outbreaks. To assess the effects of stand structure on root-rot-related mortality after severe droughts, we focused on Heterobasidion abietinum mortality in relict Spanish stands of Abies pinsapo, a drought-sensitive fir. We compared stand attributes and tree spatial patterns in three plots with H. abietinum root-rot disease and three plots without root-rot. Point-pattern analyses were used to investigate the scale and extent of mortality patterns and to test hypotheses related to the spread of the disease. Dendrochronology was used to date the year of death and to assess the association between droughts and growth decline. We applied a structural equation modelling approach to test if tree mortality occurs more rapidly than predicted by a simple distance model when trees are subjected to high tree-to-tree competition and following drought events. Contrary to expectations of drought mortality, the effect of precipitation on the year of death was strong and negative, indicating that a period of high precipitation induced an earlier tree death. Competition intensity, related to the size and density of neighbour trees, also induced an earlier tree death. The effect of distance to the disease focus was negligible except in combination with intensive competition. Our results indicate that infected trees have decreased ability to withstand drought stress, and demonstrate that tree-to-tree competition and fungal infection act as predisposing factors of forest decline and mortality.

Drought-induced changes in Amazon forest structure from repeat airborne lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, D. C.; Leitold, V.; Longo, M.; Keller, M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.

2017-12-01

Drought events in tropical forests, including the 2015-2016 El Niño, may reduce net primary productivity and increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering the short and long-term net carbon balance of tropical forests. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, forest inventory plots or eddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. Here, we analyzed repeat airborne lidar data to evaluate canopy turnover from branch and tree fall before (2013-2014) and during (2014-2016) the recent El Niño drought in the eastern and central Brazilian Amazon. Coincident field surveys for a 16-ha subset of the lidar coverage provided complementary information to classify turnover areas by mechanism (branch, multiple branch, tree fall, multiple tree fall) and estimate the total coarse woody debris volume from canopy and understory tree mortality. Annualized rates of canopy turnover increased by 50%, on average, during the drought period in both intact and fragmented forests near Santarém, Pará. Turnover increased uniformly across all size classes, and there was limited evidence that taller trees contributed a greater proportion of turnover events in any size class in 2014-2016 compared to 2013-2014. This short-term increase in canopy turnover differs from findings in multi-year rainfall exclusion experiments that large trees were more sensitive to drought impacts. Field measurements confirmed the separability of the smallest (single branch) and largest damage classes (multiple tree falls), but single tree and multiple branch fall events generated similar coarse woody debris production and lidar-derived changes in canopy volume. Large-scale sampling possible with repeat airborne lidar data also captured strong local and regional gradients in canopy turnover. Differences in slope partially explained the north-south gradient in canopy turnover dynamics near Santarém, with larger increases in turnover on flatter terrain. Regional variability in canopy turnover in response to drought conditions highlights the need for a mechanistic representation of branch and tree fall dynamics in ecosystem models to resolve changes in net carbon balance from the increase in coarse woody debris production and reorganization of canopy light environments during drought years.

Tree Age Distributions Reveal Large-Scale Disturbance-Recovery Cycles in Three Tropical Forests.

PubMed

Vlam, Mart; van der Sleen, Peter; Groenendijk, Peter; Zuidema, Pieter A

2016-01-01

Over the past few decades there has been a growing realization that a large share of apparently 'virgin' or 'old-growth' tropical forests carries a legacy of past natural or anthropogenic disturbances that have a substantial effect on present-day forest composition, structure and dynamics. Yet, direct evidence of such disturbances is scarce and comparisons of disturbance dynamics across regions even more so. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of disturbance histories from three tropical forest sites in Bolivia, Cameroon, and Thailand. We studied temporal patterns in tree regeneration of shade-intolerant tree species, because establishment of these trees is indicative for canopy disturbance. In three large areas (140-300 ha), stem disks and increment cores were collected for a total of 1154 trees (>5 cm diameter) from 12 tree species to estimate the age of every tree. Using these age estimates we produced population age distributions, which were analyzed for evidence of past disturbance. Our approach allowed us to reconstruct patterns of tree establishment over a period of around 250 years. In Bolivia, we found continuous regeneration rates of three species and a peaked age distribution of a long-lived pioneer species. In both Cameroon and Thailand we found irregular age distributions, indicating strongly reduced regeneration rates over a period of 10-60 years. Past fires, windthrow events or anthropogenic disturbances all provide plausible explanations for the reported variation in tree age across the three sites. Our results support the recent idea that the long-term dynamics of tropical forests are impacted by large-scale disturbance-recovery cycles, similar to those driving temperate forest dynamics.

Tree Age Distributions Reveal Large-Scale Disturbance-Recovery Cycles in Three Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Vlam, Mart; van der Sleen, Peter; Groenendijk, Peter; Zuidema, Pieter A.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades there has been a growing realization that a large share of apparently ‘virgin’ or ‘old-growth’ tropical forests carries a legacy of past natural or anthropogenic disturbances that have a substantial effect on present-day forest composition, structure and dynamics. Yet, direct evidence of such disturbances is scarce and comparisons of disturbance dynamics across regions even more so. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of disturbance histories from three tropical forest sites in Bolivia, Cameroon, and Thailand. We studied temporal patterns in tree regeneration of shade-intolerant tree species, because establishment of these trees is indicative for canopy disturbance. In three large areas (140–300 ha), stem disks and increment cores were collected for a total of 1154 trees (>5 cm diameter) from 12 tree species to estimate the age of every tree. Using these age estimates we produced population age distributions, which were analyzed for evidence of past disturbance. Our approach allowed us to reconstruct patterns of tree establishment over a period of around 250 years. In Bolivia, we found continuous regeneration rates of three species and a peaked age distribution of a long-lived pioneer species. In both Cameroon and Thailand we found irregular age distributions, indicating strongly reduced regeneration rates over a period of 10–60 years. Past fires, windthrow events or anthropogenic disturbances all provide plausible explanations for the reported variation in tree age across the three sites. Our results support the recent idea that the long-term dynamics of tropical forests are impacted by large-scale disturbance-recovery cycles, similar to those driving temperate forest dynamics. PMID:28105034

Hierarchical Task Network Prototyping In Unity3d

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

visually debug. Here we present a solution for prototyping HTNs by extending an existing commercial implementation of Behavior Trees within the Unity3D game ...HTN, dynamic behaviors, behavior prototyping, agent-based simulation, entity-level combat model, game engine, discrete event simulation, virtual...commercial implementation of Behavior Trees within the Unity3D game engine prior to building the HTN in COMBATXXI. Existing HTNs were emulated within

Snag characteristics and dynamics following natural and artificially induced mortality in a managed loblolly pine forest

Treesearch

Stanley Zarnoch; Mark A. Vukovich; John C. Kilgo; John I. Blake

2013-01-01

A 14-year study of snag characteristics was established in 41- to 44-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) stands in southeastern USA. During the initial 5.5 years, no stand manipulation or unusually high-mortality events occurred. Afterwards, three treatments were applied consisting of trees thinned and removed, trees felled and not removed, and artificial creation...

Below-ground biotic interactions moderated the postglacial range dynamics of trees.

PubMed

Pither, Jason; Pickles, Brian J; Simard, Suzanne W; Ordonez, Alejandro; Williams, John W

2018-05-17

Tree range shifts during geohistorical global change events provide a useful real-world model for how future changes in forest biomes may proceed. In North America, during the last deglaciation, the distributions of tree taxa varied significantly as regards the rate and direction of their responses for reasons that remain unclear. Local-scale processes such as establishment, growth, and resilience to environmental stress ultimately influence range dynamics. Despite the fact that interactions between trees and soil biota are known to influence local-scale processes profoundly, evidence linking below-ground interactions to distribution dynamics remains scarce. We evaluated climate velocity and plant traits related to dispersal, environmental tolerance and below-ground symbioses, as potential predictors of the geohistorical rates of expansion and contraction of the core distributions of tree genera between 16 and 7 ka bp. The receptivity of host genera towards ectomycorrhizal fungi was strongly supported as a positive predictor of poleward rates of distribution expansion, and seed mass was supported as a negative predictor. Climate velocity gained support as a positive predictor of rates of distribution contraction, but not expansion. Our findings indicate that understanding how tree distributions, and thus forest ecosystems, respond to climate change requires the simultaneous consideration of traits, biotic interactions and abiotic forcing. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more confidence in the inferred transmission trees. PMID:28545083

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Backer, Jantien A; Didelot, Xavier; Colijn, Caroline; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-05-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more confidence in the inferred transmission trees.

Methodology for Collision Risk Assessment of an Airspace Flow Corridor Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yimin

This dissertation presents a methodology to estimate the collision risk associated with a future air-transportation concept called the flow corridor. The flow corridor is a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept to reduce congestion and increase throughput in en-route airspace. The flow corridor has the potential to increase throughput by reducing the controller workload required to manage aircraft outside the corridor and by reducing separation of aircraft within corridor. The analysis in this dissertation is a starting point for the safety analysis required by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to eventually approve and implement the corridor concept. This dissertation develops a hybrid risk analysis methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic event tree analysis. The analysis captures the unique characteristics of the flow corridor concept, including self-separation within the corridor, lane change maneuvers, speed adjustments, and the automated separation assurance system. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the movement of aircraft in the flow corridor and to identify precursor events that might lead to a collision. Since these precursor events are not rare, standard Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate these occurrence rates. Dynamic event trees are then used to model the subsequent series of events that may lead to collision. When two aircraft are on course for a near-mid-air collision (NMAC), the on-board automated separation assurance system provides a series of safety layers to prevent the impending NNAC or collision. Dynamic event trees are used to evaluate the potential failures of these layers in order to estimate the rare-event collision probabilities. The results show that the throughput can be increased by reducing separation to 2 nautical miles while maintaining the current level of safety. A sensitivity analysis shows that the most critical parameters in the model related to the overall collision probability are the minimum separation, the probability that both flights fail to respond to traffic collision avoidance system, the probability that an NMAC results in a collision, the failure probability of the automatic dependent surveillance broadcast in receiver, and the conflict detection probability.

Spatial contagiousness of canopy disturbance in tropical rain forest: an individual-tree-based test.

PubMed

Jansen, Patrick A; van der Meer, Peter J; Bongers, Frans

2008-12-01

Spatial contagiousness of canopy dynamics-the tendency of canopy disturbances to occur nearby existing canopy openings due to an elevated risk of tree fall around gaps-has been demonstrated in many temperate-zone forests, but only inferentially for tropical forests. Hypothesized mechanisms increasing the risk of tree fall around tropical forest gaps are (1) increased tree exposure to wind around gaps, (2) reduced stability of trees alongside gaps due to crown asymmetry, or (3) reduced tree health around gaps due to damage from prior disturbances. One hypothesized consequence of elevated disturbance levels around gaps would be that gap-edge zones offer relatively favorable prospects for seedling recruitment, growth, and survival. We tested whether disturbance levels are indeed elevated around natural canopy gaps in a neotropical rain forest in French Guiana, and more so as gaps are larger. We followed the fate of 5660 trees >10 cm stem diameter over five years across 12 ha of old-growth forest and analyzed the risk and magnitude of canopy disturbance events in relation to tree diameter and the proximity and size of natural canopy gaps. We found that the cumulative incidence of disturbance over the five-year survey was not significantly elevated around preexisting gaps, and only weakly related to gap size. Also, neither the risk nor the magnitude of canopy disturbances increased significantly with the proximity of gaps. Moreover, canopy disturbance risk around gaps was independent of gap size, while the magnitude of disturbance events around gaps was weakly related to gap size. Tree size was the major driver of disturbance risk as well as magnitude. We did find an elevated incidence of disturbance inside preexisting gaps, but this "repeat disturbance" was due to an elevated disturbance risk inside gaps, not around gaps. Overall, we found no strong evidence for canopy dynamics in this rain forest being spatially contagious. Our findings are consistent with the traditional view of tropical rain forests as mosaics of patches with predictable regeneration cycles.

Simulated impacts of insect defoliation on forest carbon dynamics

Treesearch

D. Medvigy; K.L. Clark; N.S. Skowronski; K.V.R. Schäfer

2012-01-01

Many temperate and boreal forests are subject to insect epidemics. In the eastern US, over 41 million meters squared of tree basal area are thought to be at risk of gypsy moth defoliation. However, the decadal-to-century scale implications of defoliation events for ecosystem carbon dynamics are not well understood. In this study, the effects of defoliation intensity,...

Quantification of dynamic soil - vegetation feedbacks following an isotopically labelled precipitation pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piayda, Arndt; Dubbert, Maren; Siegwolf, Rolf; Cuntz, Matthias; Werner, Christiane

2017-04-01

The presence of vegetation alters hydrological cycles of ecosystems. Complex plant-soil interactions govern the fate of precipitation input and water transitions through ecosystem compartments. Disentangling these interactions is a major challenge in the field of ecohydrology and pivotal foundation for understanding the carbon cycle of semi-arid ecosystems. Stable water isotopes can be used in this context as tracer to quantify water movement through soil-vegetation-atmosphere interfaces. The aim of this study is to disentangle vegetation effects on soil water infiltration and distribution as well as dynamics of soil evaporation and grassland water-use in a Mediterranean cork-oak woodland during dry conditions. An irrigation experiment using δ18O-labeled water was carried out in order to quantify distinct effects of tree and herbaceous vegetation on infiltration and distribution of event water in the soil profile. Dynamic responses of soil and herbaceous vegetation fluxes to precipitation regarding event water-use, water uptake depth plasticity and contribution to ecosystem evapotranspiration were quantified. Total water loss to the atmosphere from bare soil was as high as from vegetated soil, utilizing large amounts of unproductive water loss for biomass production, carbon sequestration and nitrogen fixation. During the experiment no adjustments of main root water uptake depth to changes of water availability could be observed, rendering light to medium precipitation events under dry conditions useless. This forces understory plants to compete with adjacent trees for soil water in deeper soil layers. Thus understory plants are faster subject to chronic drought, leading to premature senescence at the onset of drought. Despite this water competition, the presence of Cork oak trees fosters infiltration to large degrees. That reduces drought stress, caused by evapotranspiration, due to favourable micro climatic conditions under tree crown shading. This study highlights complex soil-plant-atmosphere and inter-species interactions in both space and time controlling the fate of rain pulse transitions through a typical Mediterranean savannah ecosystem, disentangled by the use of stable water isotopes.

Vulnerability of Amazon forests to storm-driven tree mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Holm, Jennifer A.; Magnabosco Marra, Daniel; Rifai, Sami W.; Riley, William J.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Koven, Charles D.; Knox, Ryan G.; McGroddy, Megan E.; Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Urquiza-Muñoz, Jose; Tello-Espinoza, Rodil; Alegria Muñoz, Waldemar; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Higuchi, Niro

2018-05-01

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest community composition and carbon dynamics. Strong winds associated with severe convective storms are dominant natural drivers of tree mortality in the Amazon. Why forests vary with respect to their vulnerability to wind events and how the predicted increase in storm events might affect forest ecosystems within the Amazon are not well understood. We found that windthrows are common in the Amazon region extending from northwest (Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, and west Brazil) to central Brazil, with the highest occurrence of windthrows in the northwest Amazon. More frequent winds, produced by more frequent severe convective systems, in combination with well-known processes that limit the anchoring of trees in the soil, help to explain the higher vulnerability of the northwest Amazon forests to winds. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of convective storms in the Amazon have the potential to increase wind-related tree mortality. A forest demographic model calibrated for the northwestern and the central Amazon showed that northwestern forests are more resilient to increased wind-related tree mortality than forests in the central Amazon. Our study emphasizes the importance of including wind-related tree mortality in model simulations for reliable predictions of the future of tropical forests and their effects on the Earth’ system.

Dynamic event tree analysis with the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 safety analysis code

DOE PAGES

Jankovsky, Zachary K.; Denman, Matthew R.; Aldemir, Tunc

2018-02-02

The consequences of a transient in an advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor are difficult to capture with the traditional approach to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Numerous safety-relevant systems are passive and may have operational states that cannot be represented by binary success or failure. In addition, the specific order and timing of events may be crucial which necessitates the use of dynamic PRA tools such as ADAPT. The modifications to the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 sodium-cooled fast reactor safety analysis code for linking it to ADAPT to perform a dynamic PRA are described. A test case is used to demonstrate the linking process andmore » to illustrate the type of insights that may be gained with this process. Finally, newly-developed dynamic importance measures are used to assess the significance of reactor parameters/constituents on calculated consequences of initiating events.« less

Dynamic event tree analysis with the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 safety analysis code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jankovsky, Zachary K.; Denman, Matthew R.; Aldemir, Tunc

The consequences of a transient in an advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor are difficult to capture with the traditional approach to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Numerous safety-relevant systems are passive and may have operational states that cannot be represented by binary success or failure. In addition, the specific order and timing of events may be crucial which necessitates the use of dynamic PRA tools such as ADAPT. The modifications to the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 sodium-cooled fast reactor safety analysis code for linking it to ADAPT to perform a dynamic PRA are described. A test case is used to demonstrate the linking process andmore » to illustrate the type of insights that may be gained with this process. Finally, newly-developed dynamic importance measures are used to assess the significance of reactor parameters/constituents on calculated consequences of initiating events.« less

Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T.

2017-12-01

According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection.

Airway reopening through catastrophic events in a hierarchical network

PubMed Central

Baudoin, Michael; Song, Yu; Manneville, Paul; Baroud, Charles N.

2013-01-01

When you reach with your straw for the final drops of a milkshake, the liquid forms a train of plugs that flow slowly initially because of the high viscosity. They then suddenly rupture and are replaced with a rapid airflow with the characteristic slurping sound. Trains of liquid plugs also are observed in complex geometries, such as porous media during petroleum extraction, in microfluidic two-phase flows, or in flows in the pulmonary airway tree under pathological conditions. The dynamics of rupture events in these geometries play the dominant role in the spatial distribution of the flow and in determining how much of the medium remains occluded. Here we show that the flow of a train of plugs in a straight channel is always unstable to breaking through a cascade of ruptures. Collective effects considerably modify the rupture dynamics of plug trains: Interactions among nearest neighbors take place through the wetting films and slow down the cascade, whereas global interactions, through the total resistance to flow of the train, accelerate the dynamics after each plug rupture. In a branching tree of microchannels, similar cascades occur along paths that connect the input to a particular output. This divides the initial tree into several independent subnetworks, which then evolve independently of one another. The spatiotemporal distribution of the cascades is random, owing to strong sensitivity to the plug divisions at the bifurcations. PMID:23277557

Regenerating oak stands the "natural" way

Treesearch

Callie Schweitzer; G. Janzen; Daniel C. Dey

2016-01-01

In forest stands, there is always a background of growth, senescence, and death of individual trees. There also is always some type of disturbance, from simple and constant events, such as wind, to more intensive and dynamic events, like a timber harvest. Hardwood stands are composed of multiple species, and these species respond differently to disturbance, depending...

Remote Detection and Modeling of Abrupt and Gradual Tree Mortality in the Southwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muss, J. D.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

2014-12-01

Current climate models predict a warming and drying trend that has a high probability of increasing the frequency and spatial extent of tree mortality events. Field surveys can be used to identify, date, and attribute a cause of mortality to specific trees, but monetary and time constraints prevent broad-scale surveys, which are necessary to establish regional or global trends in tree mortality. This is significant because widespread forest mortality will likely lead to radical changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo, which could compound climate change. While understanding the causes and mechanisms of tree mortality events is crucial, it is equally important to be able to detect and monitor mortality and subsequent changes to the ecosystem at broad spatial- and temporal-scales. Over the past five years our ability to remotely detect abrupt forest mortality events has improved greatly, but gradual events—such as those caused by drought or certain types of insects—are still difficult to identify. Moreover, it is virtually impossible to quantify the amount of mortality that has occurred within a mixed pixel. We have developed a system that fuses climate and satellite-derived spectral data to identify both the date and the agent of forest mortality events. This system has been used with Landsat time series data to detect both abrupt and general trends in tree loss that have occurred during the past quarter-century in northern New Mexico. It has also been used with MODIS data to identify pixels with a high likelihood of drought-caused tree mortality in the Southwestern US. These candidate pixels were then fed to ED-FRT, a coupled forest dynamics-radiative transfer model, to generate estimates of drought-induced. We demonstrate a multi-scale approach that can produce results that will be instrumental in advancing our understanding of tree mortality-climate feedbacks, and improve our ability to predict what forests could look like in the future.

Growth and reproduction respond differently to climate in three Neotropical tree species.

PubMed

Alfaro-Sánchez, Raquel; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Wright, S Joseph; Camarero, J Julio

2017-06-01

The response of tropical forests to anthropogenic climate change is critically important to future global carbon budgets, yet remains highly uncertain. Here, we investigate how precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and dry- and wet-season lengths are related to annual tree growth, flower production, and fruit production in three moist tropical forest tree species using long-term datasets from tree rings and litter traps in central Panama. We also evaluated how growth, flower, and fruit production were interrelated. We found that growth was positively correlated with wet-season precipitation in all three species: Jacaranda copaia (r = 0.63), Tetragastris panamensis (r = 0.39) and Trichilia tuberculata (r = 0.39). Flowering and fruiting in Jacaranda were negatively related to current-year dry-season rainfall and positively related to prior-year dry-season rainfall. Flowering in Tetragastris was negatively related to current-year annual mean temperature while Trichilia showed no significant relationships of reproduction with climate. Growth was significantly related to reproduction only in Tetragastris, where it was positively related to previous year fruiting. Our results suggest that tree growth in moist tropical forest tree species is generally reduced by drought events such as those associated with strong El Niño events. In contrast, interannual variation in reproduction is not generally associated with growth and has distinct and species-specific climate responses, with positive effects of El Niño events in some species. Understanding these contrasting climate effects on tree growth and reproduction is critical to predicting changes in tropical forest dynamics and species composition under climate change.

Temporal Dynamics in the Concentration, Flux, and Optical Properties of Tree-derived Dissolved Organic Matter (Tree-DOM) in an Epiphyte-laden Oak-cedar Forest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitetree, A.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Wagner, S.; Guillemette, F.; Lewis, J.; Silva, L.; Stubbins, A.

2017-12-01

Studies on the fate and transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow pathway typically begin in streams or soils, neglecting the initial enrichment of rainfall with DOM during contact with plant canopies. However, rain water can gather significant amounts of tree-derived DOM (tree-DOM) when it drains from the canopy, as throughfall, and down the stem, as stemflow. We examined the temporal variability of event-scale tree-DOM concentrations, yield, and optical (light absorbance and fluorescence) characteristics from an epiphyte-laden Quercus virginiana-Juniperus virginiana forest on Skidaway Island, Savannah, Georgia (USA). All tree-DOM fluxes were highly enriched compared to rainfall and epiphytes further increased concentrations. Stemflow DOC concentrations were greater than throughfall across study species, yet larger throughfall water yields produced greater DOC yields versus stemflow. Tree-DOM optical characteristics indicate it is aromatic-rich with FDOM dominated by humic-like fluorescence, containing 10-20% protein-like (tryptophan-like) fluorescence. Storm size was the only storm condition that strongly correlated with tree-DOM concentration and flux; however, throughfall and stemflow optical characteristics varied little across a wide range of storm conditions (from low magnitude events to intense tropical storms). Annual tree-DOM yields from the study forest (0.8-46 g-C m-2 yr-1) compared well to other yields along the rainfall-to- discharge flow pathway, exceeding DOM yields from some river watersheds.

Combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data to assess damage severity following a major blowdown event in northern Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

Mark D. Nelson; Sean P. Healey; W. Keith Moser; Mark H. Hansen

2009-01-01

Effects of a catastrophic blowdown event in northern Minnesota, USA were assessed using field inventory data, aerial sketch maps and satellite image data processed through the North American Forest Dynamics programme. Estimates were produced for forest area and net volume per unit area of live trees pre- and post-disturbance, and for changes in volume per unit area and...

A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cailleret, Maxime; Jansen, Steven; Robert, Elisabeth M.R.; Desoto, Lucia; Aakala, Tuomas; Antos, Joseph A.; Beikircher, Barbara; Bigler, Christof; Bugmann, Harald; Caccianiga, Marco; Cada, Vojtech; Camarero, Jesus J.; Cherubini, Paolo; Cochard, Herve; Coyea, Marie R.; Cufar, Katarina; Das, Adrian J.; Davi, Hendrik; Delzon, Sylvain; Dorman, Michael; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Gillner, Sten; Haavik, Laurel J.; Hartmann, Henrik; Heres, Ana-Maria; Hultine, Kevin R.; Janda, Pavel; Kane, Jeffrey M.; Kharuk, Vyacheslav I.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Klein, Tamir; Kramer, Koen; Lens, Frederic; Levanic, Tom; Calderon, Juan C. Linares; Lloret, Francisco; Lobo-Do-Vale, Raquel; Lombardi, Fabio; Lopez Rodriguez, Rosana; Makinen, Harri; Mayr, Stefan; Meszaros, IIona; Metsaranta, Juha M.; Minunno, Francesco; Oberhuber, Walter; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Petritan, Any M.; Rohner, Brigitte; Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Sarris, Dimitrios; Smith, Jeremy M.; Stan, Amanda B.; Sterck, Frank; Stojanovic, Dejan B.; Suarez, Maria L.; Svoboda, Miroslav; Tognetti, Roberto; Torres-Ruiz, Jose M.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Villalba, Ricardo; Vodde, Floor; Westwood, Alana R.; Wyckoff, Peter H.; Zafirov, Nikolay; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi

2017-01-01

Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1–100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks.

A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality.

PubMed

Cailleret, Maxime; Jansen, Steven; Robert, Elisabeth M R; Desoto, Lucía; Aakala, Tuomas; Antos, Joseph A; Beikircher, Barbara; Bigler, Christof; Bugmann, Harald; Caccianiga, Marco; Čada, Vojtěch; Camarero, Jesus J; Cherubini, Paolo; Cochard, Hervé; Coyea, Marie R; Čufar, Katarina; Das, Adrian J; Davi, Hendrik; Delzon, Sylvain; Dorman, Michael; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Gillner, Sten; Haavik, Laurel J; Hartmann, Henrik; Hereş, Ana-Maria; Hultine, Kevin R; Janda, Pavel; Kane, Jeffrey M; Kharuk, Vyacheslav I; Kitzberger, Thomas; Klein, Tamir; Kramer, Koen; Lens, Frederic; Levanic, Tom; Linares Calderon, Juan C; Lloret, Francisco; Lobo-Do-Vale, Raquel; Lombardi, Fabio; López Rodríguez, Rosana; Mäkinen, Harri; Mayr, Stefan; Mészáros, Ilona; Metsaranta, Juha M; Minunno, Francesco; Oberhuber, Walter; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Petritan, Any M; Rohner, Brigitte; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Sarris, Dimitrios; Smith, Jeremy M; Stan, Amanda B; Sterck, Frank; Stojanović, Dejan B; Suarez, Maria L; Svoboda, Miroslav; Tognetti, Roberto; Torres-Ruiz, José M; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Villalba, Ricardo; Vodde, Floor; Westwood, Alana R; Wyckoff, Peter H; Zafirov, Nikolay; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

2017-04-01

Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1-100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

PubMed Central

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

2011-01-01

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987–2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change–driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage. PMID:21220333

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.

PubMed

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

2011-01-25

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

Initial observations on tree mortality following a severe drought in 2012 in two Indiana state forests and implications for long-term compositional dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew R. Meier; Mike R. Saunders

2014-01-01

Compositional and structural changes in response to silvicultural treatments in forest stands are well documented (e.g., Saunders and Wagner 2008), but the stochastic nature of natural disturbance events often precludes direct observation of their impacts on stand dynamics. Though the current dominance of oak-hickory forest types in the Central Hardwoods Forest region...

Factors impacting stemflow generation in a European beech forest: Individual tree versus neighborhood properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, Johanna Clara; Germer, Sonja; Hildebrandt, Anke

2017-04-01

The redistribution of precipitation by canopies changes the water flow dynamics to the forest floor. The spatial pattern of throughfall has been researched in a number of studies in different ecosystems. Yet, also stemflow substantially influences water input patterns, constituting a mean of 12% of gross precipitation for European beech as one of the most abundant tree species in Central Europe. While the initiation of stemflow depends mostly on precipitation event properties, stemflow amounts are strongly shaped by canopy structure. Stemflow research has mainly addressed the impact of single tree morphological variables. In previous studies, the impact of forest structure on area-based stemflow was studied comparing plots with different properties using few exemplary stemflow measurements. In non-homogeneous stands, this approach might not be accurate, as the variation of stand properties like tree density could change tree individual stemflow fluxes. To investigate this, a total measurement of all trees per plot is required. We hypothesize, that in addition to individual tree metrics, tree neighborhood relations have a significant impact on stemflow generation in a heterogeneous beech forest. Our study site is located in the pristine forest of the National Park Hainich, central Germany. It is heterogeneous in respect to tree density, species composition and tree age. We measured stemflow in an areal approach, for all trees on 11 subplots (each 10 m x 10 m) spaced evenly throughout a 1 ha plot. This involved overall 65 trees, which is 11% of the plot's trees. 27 precipitation events were recorded in spring and early summer of 2015 and 2016. Stand properties were surveyed, including diameter at breast height, height, position and species of a tree. From this data, we calculated neighborhood properties for each tree, as number, basal area, and relative height of neighboring trees within a radius of the plot's mean tree distance. Using linear mixed effects models, we identified the different factors, individual and neighborhood, which significantly explain stemflow amount per tree. Preliminary results show, that the main impact on stemflow in our heterogeneous beech forest is due to individual tree diameter at breast height, while neighborhood factors have a smaller influence. This work defines the most important factors for stemflow fluxes, using easy-to-acquire tree and stand information, which allows the robust extrapolation of stemflow measurements and the generation of a spatially discrete pattern of stemflow input to the soil. Because of the high local and temporal concentration of precipitation, stemflow fluxes could be a key factor in forest soil water dynamics. On the long run, the results shall enable us to directly link soil water content measurements with estimated stemflow volumes for individual trees to trace stemflow fluxes into and through the soil.

Development and application of the dynamic system doctor to nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kunsman, David Marvin; Aldemir, Tunc; Rutt, Benjamin

2008-05-01

This LDRD project has produced a tool that makes probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear reactors - analyses which are very resource intensive - more efficient. PRAs of nuclear reactors are being increasingly relied on by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.N.R.C.) for licensing decisions for current and advanced reactors. Yet, PRAs are produced much as they were 20 years ago. The work here applied a modern systems analysis technique to the accident progression analysis portion of the PRA; the technique was a system-independent multi-task computer driver routine. Initially, the objective of the work was to fuse the accidentmore » progression event tree (APET) portion of a PRA to the dynamic system doctor (DSD) created by Ohio State University. Instead, during the initial efforts, it was found that the DSD could be linked directly to a detailed accident progression phenomenological simulation code - the type on which APET construction and analysis relies, albeit indirectly - and thereby directly create and analyze the APET. The expanded DSD computational architecture and infrastructure that was created during this effort is called ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees). ADAPT is a system software infrastructure that supports execution and analysis of multiple dynamic event-tree simulations on distributed environments. A simulator abstraction layer was developed, and a generic driver was implemented for executing simulators on a distributed environment. As a demonstration of the use of the methodological tool, ADAPT was applied to quantify the likelihood of competing accident progression pathways occurring for a particular accident scenario in a particular reactor type using MELCOR, an integrated severe accident analysis code developed at Sandia. (ADAPT was intentionally created with flexibility, however, and is not limited to interacting with only one code. With minor coding changes to input files, ADAPT can be linked to other such codes.) The results of this demonstration indicate that the approach can significantly reduce the resources required for Level 2 PRAs. From the phenomenological viewpoint, ADAPT can also treat the associated epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. This methodology can also be used for analyses of other complex systems. Any complex system can be analyzed using ADAPT if the workings of that system can be displayed as an event tree, there is a computer code that simulates how those events could progress, and that simulator code has switches to turn on and off system events, phenomena, etc. Using and applying ADAPT to particular problems is not human independent. While the human resources for the creation and analysis of the accident progression are significantly decreased, knowledgeable analysts are still necessary for a given project to apply ADAPT successfully. This research and development effort has met its original goals and then exceeded them.« less

The evolutionary rate dynamically tracks changes in HIV-1 epidemics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maljkovic-berry, Irina; Athreya, Gayathri; Daniels, Marcus

Large-sequence datasets provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamics of pathogen epidemics. Thus, a fast method to estimate the evolutionary rate from large and numerous phylogenetic trees becomes necessary. Based on minimizing tip height variances, we optimize the root in a given phylogenetic tree to estimate the most homogenous evolutionary rate between samples from at least two different time points. Simulations showed that the method had no bias in the estimation of evolutionary rates and that it was robust to tree rooting and topological errors. We show that the evolutionary rates of HIV-1 subtype B and C epidemics have changedmore » over time, with the rate of evolution inversely correlated to the rate of virus spread. For subtype B, the evolutionary rate slowed down and tracked the start of the HAART era in 1996. Subtype C in Ethiopia showed an increase in the evolutionary rate when the prevalence increase markedly slowed down in 1995. Thus, we show that the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 on the population level dynamically tracks epidemic events.« less

Mistletoe infection alters the transpiration flow path and suppresses water regulation of host trees during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griebel, A.; Maier, C.; Barton, C. V.; Metzen, D.; Renchon, A.; Boer, M. M.; Pendall, E.

2017-12-01

Mistletoe is a globally distributed group of parasitic plants that infiltrates the vascular tissue of its host trees to acquire water, carbon and nutrients, making it a leading agent of biotic disturbance. Many mistletoes occur in water-limited ecosystems, thus mistletoe infection in combination with increased climatic stress may exacerbate water stress and potentially accelerate mortality rates of infected trees during extreme events. This is an emerging problem in Australia, as mistletoe distribution is increasing and clear links between mistletoe infection and mortality have been established. However, direct observations about how mistletoes alter host physiological processes during extreme events are rare, which impedes our understanding of mechanisms underlying increased tree mortality rates. We addressed this gap by continuously monitoring stem and branch sap flow and a range of leaf traits of infected and uninfected trees of two co-occurring eucalypt species during a severe heatwave in south-eastern Australia. We demonstrate that mistletoes' leaf water potentials were maintained 30% lower than hosts' to redirect the trees' transpiration flow path towards mistletoe leaves. Eucalypt leaves reduced water loss through stomatal regulation when atmospheric dryness exceeded 2 kPa, but the magnitude of stomatal regulation in non-infected eucalypts differed by species (between 40-80%). Remarkably, when infected, sap flow rates of stems and branches of both eucalypt species remained unregulated even under extreme atmospheric dryness (>8 kPa). Our observations indicate that excessive water use of mistletoes likely increases xylem cavitation rates in hosts during prolonged droughts and supports that hydraulic failure contributes to increased mortality of infected trees. Hence, in order to accurately model the contribution of biotic disturbances to tree mortality under a changing climate, it will be crucial to increase our process-based understanding of the interaction between biotic and abiotic dynamics, especially to establish thresholds of critical cavitation rates of infected trees.

Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, Thomas

2005-01-01

A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

Interactions of forest disturbance-recovery dynamics with a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Miller, A. D.; Tepley, A. J.; Bennett, A. C.; Wang, M.

2015-12-01

As the climate changes, altered disturbance-recovery dynamics in forests worldwide are likely to result in significant biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to the climate system. Climate shapes forest disturbance events including tree mortality and fire, with consequent climate feedbacks. For instance, in forests globally, drought increases tree mortality rates, having a stronger impact on larger trees and resulting in greater feedbacks to climate change than would occur if drought sensitivities were equal across tree size classes. Forest regeneration and associated biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks are also shaped by climate: across the tropics the rate of biomass accumulation is faster in everwet than in seasonally dry climates, and in the Klamath region (N California / S Oregon), post-fire vegetation dynamics and microclimate are shaped by aridity. Forest recovery dynamics will be affected by elevated CO2 and climate change; for instance, models predict that forest regeneration rate, successional dynamics, and climate feedbacks will all be altered under elevated CO2. In combination, climatic impacts on disturbance and recovery can result in dramatic shifts in forest cover on the landscape level. For instance, in fire-prone forested landscapes, forest cover decreases with increasing frequency of high-severity fire and decreasing forest recovery rate, both of which could be altered by climate change, producing rapid loss of forest on the landscape level. Such effects may be amplified by the existence of alternative stable states, which can cause systems to experience non-reversible changes in cover type. Critical transitions in landscape-level forest cover would have significant biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks. Thus, altered disturbance-recovery dynamics under a changing climate may have sudden and dramatic impacts on forest-climate interactions.

Temporal Dynamics in the Concentration, Flux, and Optical Properties of Tree-Derived Dissolved Organic Matter in an Epiphyte-Laden Oak-Cedar Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Stan, John T.; Wagner, Sasha; Guillemette, François; Whitetree, Ansley; Lewis, Julius; Silva, Leticia; Stubbins, Aron

2017-11-01

Studies on the fate and transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow pathway typically begin in streams or soils, neglecting the initial enrichment of rainfall with DOM during contact with plant canopies. However, rain water can gather significant amounts of tree-derived DOM (tree-DOM) when it drains from the canopy, as throughfall, and down the stem, as stemflow. We examined the temporal variability of event-scale tree-DOM concentrations, yield, and optical (light absorbance and fluorescence) characteristics from an epiphyte-laden Quercus virginiana-Juniperus virginiana forest on Skidaway Island, Savannah, Georgia (USA). All tree-DOM fluxes were highly enriched in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) compared to rainfall, and epiphytes further increased concentrations. Stemflow DOC concentrations were greater than throughfall across study species, yet larger throughfall water yields produced greater DOC yields versus stemflow. Tree-DOM optical characteristics indicate it is aromatic-rich with fluorescent DOM dominated by humic-like fluorescence, containing 10-20% protein-like (tryptophan-like) fluorescence. Storm size was the only storm condition that strongly correlated with tree-DOM concentration and flux; however, throughfall and stemflow optical characteristics varied little across a wide range of storm conditions (from low magnitude events to intense tropical storms). Annual tree-DOM yields from the study forest (0.8-46 g C m-2 yr-1) were similar to other yields from discrete down-gradient fluxes (litter leachates, soil leachates, and stream discharge) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow path.

Growth and demography of Pinaleno high elevation forests

Treesearch

Christopher O' Connor; Donald A. Falk; Ann M. Lynch; Craig P. Wilcox; Thomas W. Swetnam; Tyson L. Swetnam

2010-01-01

The project goal is to understand how multiple disturbance events including fire, insect outbreaks, and climate variability interact in space and time, and how they combine to influence forest species composition, spatial structure, and tree population dynamics in high elevation forests of the Pinaleno Mountains. Information from each of these components is needed in...

Monitoring of Freezing Dynamics in Trees: A Simple Phase Shift Causes Complexity1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Charra-Vaskou, Katline

2017-01-01

During winter, trees have to cope with harsh conditions, including extreme freeze-thaw stress. This study focused on ice nucleation and propagation, related water shifts and xylem cavitation, as well as cell damage and was based on in situ monitoring of xylem (thermocouples) and surface temperatures (infrared imaging), ultrasonic emissions, and dendrometer analysis. Field experiments during late winter on Picea abies growing at the alpine timberline revealed three distinct freezing patterns: (1) from the top of the tree toward the base, (2) from thin branches toward the main stem’s top and base, and (3) from the base toward the top. Infrared imaging showed freezing within branches from their base toward distal parts. Such complex freezing causes dynamic and heterogenous patterns in water potential and probably in cavitation. This study highlights the interaction between environmental conditions upon freezing and thawing and demonstrates the enormous complexity of freezing processes in trees. Diameter shrinkage, which indicated water fluxes within the stem, and acoustic emission analysis, which indicated cavitation events near the ice front upon freezing, were both related to minimum temperature and, upon thawing, related to vapor pressure deficit and soil temperature. These complex patterns, emphasizing the common mechanisms between frost and drought stress, shed new light on winter tree physiology. PMID:28242655

Continental-scale consequences of tree die-offs in North America: identifying where forest loss matters most

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, Abigail L. S.; Laguë, Marysa M.; Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Field, Jason P.; Breshears, David D.; Moore, David J. P.; Saleska, Scott R.; Stark, Scott C.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Law, Darin J.; Minor, David M.

2018-05-01

Regional-scale tree die-off events driven by drought and warming and associated pests and pathogens have occurred recently on all forested continents and are projected to increase in frequency and extent with future warming. Within areas where tree mortality has occurred, ecological, hydrological and meteorological consequences are increasingly being documented. However, the potential for tree die-off to impact vegetation processes and related carbon dynamics in areas remote to where die-off occurs has rarely been systematically evaluated, particularly for multiple distinct regions within a given continent. Such remote impacts can occur when climate effects of local vegetation change are propagated by atmospheric circulation—the phenomena of ‘ecoclimate teleconnections’. We simulated tree die-off events in the 13 most densely forested US regions (selected from the 20 US National Ecological Observatory Network [NEON] domains) and found that tree die-off even for smaller regions has potential to affect climate and hence Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) in disparate regions (NEON domains), either positively or negatively. Some regions exhibited strong teleconnections to several others, and some regions were relatively sensitive to tree loss regardless of what other region the tree loss occurred in. For the US as a whole, loss of trees in the Pacific Southwest—an area undergoing rapid tree die-off—had the largest negative impact on remote US GPP whereas loss of trees in the Mid-Atlantic had the largest positive impact. This research lays a foundation for hypotheses that identify how the effects of tree die-off (or other types of tree loss such as deforestation) can ricochet across regions by revealing hot-spots of forcing and response. Such modes of connectivity have direct applicability for improving models of climate change impacts and for developing more informed and coordinated carbon accounting across regions.

Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

2010-01-01

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

ADAPT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, John; Jankovsky, Zachary; Metzroth, Kyle G

2018-04-04

The purpose of the ADAPT code is to generate Dynamic Event Trees (DET) using a user specified set of simulators. ADAPT can utilize any simulation tool which meets a minimal set of requirements. ADAPT is based on the concept of DET which uses explicit modeling of the deterministic dynamic processes that take place during a nuclear reactor plant system (or other complex system) evolution along with stochastic modeling. When DET are used to model various aspects of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), all accident progression scenarios starting from an initiating event are considered simultaneously. The DET branching occurs at user specifiedmore » times and/or when an action is required by the system and/or the operator. These outcomes then decide how the dynamic system variables will evolve in time for each DET branch. Since two different outcomes at a DET branching may lead to completely different paths for system evolution, the next branching for these paths may occur not only at separate times, but can be based on different branching criteria. The computational infrastructure allows for flexibility in ADAPT to link with different system simulation codes, parallel processing of the scenarios under consideration, on-line scenario management (initiation as well as termination), analysis of results, and user friendly graphical capabilities. The ADAPT system is designed for a distributed computing environment; the scheduler can track multiple concurrent branches simultaneously. The scheduler is modularized so that the DET branching strategy can be modified (e.g. biasing towards the worst-case scenario/event). Independent database systems store data from the simulation tasks and the DET structure so that the event tree can be constructed and analyzed later. ADAPT is provided with a user-friendly client which can easily sort through and display the results of an experiment, precluding the need for the user to manually inspect individual simulator runs.« less

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Fire in Whitebark Pine Stands on two Mountains in the Lolo National Forest, Montana, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, E. R.; Grissino-Mayer, H. D.

2004-12-01

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a long-lived tree species that exists throughout high elevation and treeline forest communities of western North America. It is the foundation of a diminishing ecosystem that supports Clark's nutcrackers (Nucifraga columbiana), red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), and black bears (U. americana). Several factors are directly linked to the decline of the whitebark pine ecosystem: mortality from recent and widespread mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, infestation by the invasive white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola, an exotic fungal canker that weakens and eventually kills white pines), and fire suppression that may have altered the historic fire regime and enabled fire-intolerant tree species to encroach upon whitebark pine stands. The synergistic effects of these factors have led to a dramatic decline in whitebark pine communities throughout its native range, and in response land managers and conservationists have called for research to better understand the ecological dynamics of this little studied ecosystem. My research uses dendrochronology to investigate the fire history of whitebark pine stands on three mountains in the Lolo National Forest, Montana, via fire-scar and age structure analyses. I present here the results from the fire-scar analyses from Morrell Mountain where I obtained 40 cross sections from dead and down whitebark pines. Individual tree mean fire return intervals (MFRI) range from 33 to 119 years, with a stand MFRI of 49 years that includes fire scars dating to the 16th century. Fire events scarred multiple trees in AD 1754, 1796, and 1843, indicating a mixed-severity fire regime. The majority of the samples recorded a frost event in AD 1601, perhaps evidence of the AD 1600 eruption of Mt. Huaynapatina in the Peruvian Andes. My research not only provides an historical framework for land managers, but also provides an opportunity to examine long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of fire activity over the northern Rocky Mountains in terms of climate change and atmospheric teleconnections.

Decadal-scale ecosystem memory reveals interactive effects of drought and insect defoliation on boreal forest productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; D'Orangeville, L.; Dawson, A.; Kneeshaw, D.; Finley, A. O.

2017-12-01

Drought and insect defoliation have lasting impacts on the dynamics of the boreal forest. Impacts are expected to worsen under global climate change as hotter, drier conditions forecast for much of the boreal increase the frequency and severity of drought and defoliation events. Contemporary ecological theory predicts physiological feedbacks in tree responses to drought and defoliation amplify impacts potentially causing large-scale productivity losses and forest mortality. Quantifying the interactive impacts of drought and insect defoliation on regional forest health is difficult given delayed and persistent responses to disturbance events. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate forest growth responses to interactions between drought and insect defoliation by species and size class. Delayed and persistent responses to past drought and defoliation were quantified using empirical memory functions allowing for improved detection of interactions. The model was applied to tree-ring data from stands in Western (Alberta) and Eastern (Québec) regions of the Canadian boreal forest with different species compositions, disturbance regimes, and regional climates. Western stands experience chronic water deficit and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) defoliation; Eastern stands experience irregular water deficit and spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation. Ecosystem memory to past water deficit peaked in the year previous to growth and decayed to zero within 5 (West) to 8 (East) years; memory to past defoliation ranged from 8 (West) to 12 (East) years. The drier regional climate and faster FTC defoliation dynamics (compared to SBW) likely contribute to shorter ecosystem memory in the West. Drought and defoliation had the largest negative impact on large-diameter, host tree growth. Surprisingly, a positive interaction was observed between drought and defoliation for large-diameter, non-host trees likely due to reduced stand-level competition for water. Results highlight the temporal persistence of drought and defoliation stress on boreal forest growth dynamics and provide an empirical estimate of their interactive effects with explicit uncertainty.

Onboard Classifiers for Science Event Detection on a Remote Sensing Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castano, Rebecca; Mazzoni, Dominic; Tang, Nghia; Greeley, Ron; Doggett, Thomas; Cichy, Ben; Chien, Steve; Davies, Ashley

2006-01-01

Typically, data collected by a spacecraft is downlinked to Earth and pre-processed before any analysis is performed. We have developed classifiers that can be used onboard a spacecraft to identify high priority data for downlink to Earth, providing a method for maximizing the use of a potentially bandwidth limited downlink channel. Onboard analysis can also enable rapid reaction to dynamic events, such as flooding, volcanic eruptions or sea ice break-up. Four classifiers were developed to identify cryosphere events using hyperspectral images. These classifiers include a manually constructed classifier, a Support Vector Machine (SVM), a Decision Tree and a classifier derived by searching over combinations of thresholded band ratios. Each of the classifiers was designed to run in the computationally constrained operating environment of the spacecraft. A set of scenes was hand-labeled to provide training and testing data. Performance results on the test data indicate that the SVM and manual classifiers outperformed the Decision Tree and band-ratio classifiers with the SVM yielding slightly better classifications than the manual classifier.

Disturbance, life history traits, and dynamics in an old-growth forest landscape of southeastern Europe.

PubMed

Nagel, Thomas A; Svoboda, Miroslav; Kobal, Milan

2014-06-01

Much of our understanding of natural forest dynamics in the temperate region of Europe is based on observational studies in old-growth remnants that have emphasized small-scale gap dynamics and equilibrium stand structure and composition. Relatively little attention has been given to the role of infrequent disturbance events in forest dynamics. In this study, we analyzed dendroecological data from four stands and three windthrow patches in an old-growth landscape in the Dinaric Mountains of Bosnia and Herzegovina to examine disturbance history, tree life history traits, and compositional dynamics. Over all stands, most decades during the past 340 years experienced less than 10% canopy loss, yet each stand showed evidence of periodic intermediate-severity disturbances that removed > 40% of the canopy, some of which were synchronized over the study area landscape. Analysis of radial growth patterns indicated several life history differences among the dominant canopy trees; beech was markedly older than fir, while growth patterns of dead and dying trees suggested that fir was able to tolerate longer periods of suppressed growth in shade. Maple had the fastest radial growth and accessed the canopy primarily through rapid early growth in canopy gaps, whereas most beech and fir experienced a period of suppressed growth prior to canopy accession. Peaks in disturbance were roughly linked to increased recruitment, but mainly of shade-tolerant beech and fir; less tolerant species (i.e., maple, ash, and elm) recruited successfully on some of the windthown sites where advance regeneration of beech and fir was less abundant. The results challenge the traditional notions of stability in temperate old-growth forests of Europe and highlight the nonequilibrial nature of canopy composition due to unique histories of disturbance and tree life history differences. These findings provide valuable information for developing natural disturbance-based silvicultural systems, as well as insight into maintaining less shade-tolerant, but valuable broadleaved trees in temperate forests of Europe.

Probabilistic Evaluation of Anthropogenic Regulations In a Vegetated River Channel Using a Vegetation Dynamics Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, Hitoshi

2015-04-01

Vegetation overgrowth in fluvial floodplains, gravel beds, and sand bars has been a serious engineering problem for riparian management in Japan. From the viewpoints of flood control and ecological conservation, it would be necessary to predict the vegetation dynamics accurately for long-term duration. In this research, we have developed a stochastic model for predicting the vegetation dynamics in fluvial floodplains with emphasis on the interaction with flood impacts. The model consists of the following four components: (i) long-term stochastic behavior of flow discharge, (ii) hydrodynamics in a channel with floodplain vegetation, (iii) variation of riverbed topography, and (iv) vegetation dynamics on floodplains. In the vegetation dynamics model, the flood discharge (i) is stochastically simulated using a filtered Poisson process, one of the conventional approaches in hydrological time-series generation. The component for vegetation dynamics (iv) includes the effects of tree growth, mortality by floods, and infant tree recruitment. Vegetation condition has been observed mainly before and after floods since 2008 at a field site located between 23-24 km from the river mouth in Kako River, Japan. The Kako River has the catchment area of 1,730 km2 and the main channel length of 96 km. This site is one of the vegetation overgrowth sites in the Kako River floodplains. The predominant tree species are willows and bamboos. In the field survey, the position, trunk diameter and height of each tree as well as the riverbed materials were measured after several flood events to investigate their impacts on the floodplain vegetation community. This presentation tries to examine effects of anthropogenic river regulations, i.e., thinning and cutting-down, in the vegetated channel in Kako River by using the vegetation dynamics model. Sensitivity of both the flood water level and the vegetation status in the channel is statistically evaluated in terms of the different cutting-down levels, timings and scales of the thinning, etc., by the Monte Carlo simulation of the model.

Dendrometric measurements reveal stages leading to tree mortality in a semiarid pine forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatarinov, Fyodor; Preisler, Yakir; Klein, Tamir; Rotenberg, Eyal; Yakir, Dan

2017-04-01

Increasing frequency and intensity of climatic extreme events, such as droughts may lead to increasing vulnerability of forests, especially in semi-arid regions. In the spring of 2016 mortality was observed among trees used for sap flow (SF) and dendrometry measurements in the semi-arid Fluxnet pine forest site of Yatir in Israel (280mm annual mean precipitation). This was accompanied by bark-beetle attack, and with visual drying of needles starting in April 2016. Comparative analysis of dendrometry and sap flux (SF) measurements in 31 trees of which 7 died and 24 survived permitted identification of the stages leading to tree mortality. Distinction between dying and surviving trees was identified in the dendrometric measurements from Nov. 2015, about five months before visual mortality signs: First, clear decline in diameter (DBH) was observed in all dying trees, whereas DBH of living trees remained constant until the first rain in January 2016 followed by growth. Second, the diurnal patterns in DBH showed a gradual shift of the diurnal DBH maximum from noon-time to early morning from the summer of 2015 to the spring of 2016 in surviving trees, whereas in dying trees it remained stable around noontime. Third, the diurnal swelling/shrinkage dynamics, assumed to reflect water use and storage dynamics, showed clear decline in magnitude, down to near zero, in the dying trees while regular daily cycle continued in the surviving trees. In September 2015 Shoot measurements showed midnight minimum of leaf water potential, lower than in living trees (-4.5 vs. -3.6 MPa respectively). Sap flow measurements were not sufficiently sensitive during the non-active season (fall and early winter) and indicated changes only after the first rain in January 2016. At this time, SF showed dramatic increase in SF with typical midday maximum in the surviving trees, whereas in dying trees SF remained low and irregular. The results show that indicators of mortality can be detected at least 5 months before visual signs are observed, and demonstrate the interacting effects of carbon economy (growth) and tree water management (radial water movement and storage) on the development of mortality in Aleppo pine trees.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

PubMed

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

A Global Perspective on Warmer Droughts as a Key Driver of Forest Disturbances and Tree Mortality (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. D.

2013-12-01

Recent global warming, in concert with episodic droughts, is causing elevated levels of both chronic and acute forest water stress across large regions. Such increases in water stress affect forest dynamics in multiple ways, including by amplifying the incidence and severity of many significant forest disturbances, particularly drought-induced tree mortality, wildfire, and outbreaks of damaging insects and diseases. Emerging global-scale patterns of drought-related forest die-off are presented, including a newly updated map overview of documented drought- and heat-induced tree mortality events from around the world, demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types to forest drought stress, even in typically wet environments. Comparative patterns of drought stress and associated forest disturbances are reviewed for several regions (southwestern Australia, Inner Asia, western North America, Mediterranean Basin), including interactions among climate and various disturbance processes. From the Southwest USA, research is presented that derives a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the most regionally-widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii), demonstrating recent escalation of FDSI to extreme levels relative to the past 1000 years, due to both drought and especially warming. This new work further highlights strong correlations between drought stress and amplified forest disturbances (fire, bark beetle outbreaks), and projects that by CE 2050 anticipated regional warming will cause mean FDSI values to reach historically unprecedented levels that may exceed thresholds for the survival of current tree species in large portions of their current range in the Southwest. Similar patterns of recent climate-amplified forest disturbance risk are apparent from a variety of relatively dry regions across this planet, and given climate projections for substantially warmer temperatures and greater drought stress for many areas globally, the growing water-stress risks to forest health in such regions are becoming clearer. However, the effects of drought stress on forest dynamics are ameliorated through diverse compensatory and resilience-enhancing mechanisms and processes which operate at scales ranging from intracellular tree physiologies and individual tree developmental and morphological adjustments to species population-level demographic and genetic responses to forest stand-level structural and compositional responses up to landscape-scale tree host-insect pest outbreak dynamics and forest-climate ecohydrological feedbacks. In addition, significant uncertainties exist regarding how various other global atmospheric changes (e.g., CO2 enrichment, increased N deposition, and elevated surface-level ozone) will interact with the world's diverse spectrum of tree species to also affect global forest dynamics. Research efforts to address such core scientific uncertainties associated with modeling drought-induced tree mortality and resultant forest dynamics will be discussed.

Predicting Tree Mortality Die-off Events Associated with Hotter Drought and Assessing Their Global Consequences via Ecoclimate Teleconnections.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breshears, D. D.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Adams, H. D.; Barnes, M.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Bradford, J. B.; Cobb, N.; Field, J. P.; Froend, R.; Fontaine, J. B.; Garcia, E.; Hardy, G. E. S. J.; Huxman, T. E.; Kala, J.; Lague, M. M.; Martinez-Yrizar, A.; Matusick, G.; Minor, D. M.; Moore, D. J.; Ng, M.; Ruthrof, K. X.; Saleska, S. R.; Stark, S. C.; Swann, A. L. S.; Villegas, J. C.; Williams, A. P.; Zou, C.

2017-12-01

Evidence that tree mortality is increasingly likely occur in extensive die-off events across the terrestrial biosphere continues to mount. The consequences of such extensive mortality events are potentially profound, not only for the locations where die-off events occur, but also for other locations that could be impacted via ecoclimate teleconnections, whereby the land surface changes associated with die-off in one location could alter atmospheric circulation patterns and affect vegetation elsewhere. Here, we (1) recap the background of tree mortality as an emerging environmental issue, (2) highlight recent advances that could help us improve predictions of the vulnerability to tree mortality, including the underlying importance of hydraulic failure, the potential to develop climatic envelopes specific to tree mortality events, and consideration of the role of heat waves; and (3) initial bounding simulations that indicate the potential for tree die-off events in different locations to alter ecoclimate teleconnections. As we move toward globally coordinated carbon accounting and management, the high vulnerability to tree die-off events and the potential for such events to affect vegetation elsewhere will both need to be accounted for.

Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine ( Pinus elliottii var. densa ) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

DOE PAGES

Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; ...

2010-01-01

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated withmore » tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.« less

Does freezing and dynamic flexing of frozen branches impact the cavitation resistance of Malus domestica and the Populus clone Walker?

PubMed

Christensen-Dalsgaard, Karen K; Tyree, Melvin T

2013-11-01

Frost damage to the xylem conduits of trees is a phenomenon of eco-physiological importance. It is often documented in terms of the percentage loss of conductivity (PLC), an indicator of air filling of the conduits. However, trees that refill their conduits in spring could be impacted more by damage to the conduits that reduce cavitation resistance, making them more susceptible to future drought events. We investigated whether ice formation, dynamic flexing of frozen branches or freeze-thaw events could reduce the cavitation resistance (cause "frost fatigue") in first-year shoots of apple (Malus domestica) and clonal hybrid cottonwood (Walker). Frost fatigue was measured in terms of P50 (the negative xylem pressure required to cause a 50 % loss of conductivity). All treatment groups showed significant frost fatigue, with the exception of the pre-flushed, constantly frozen poplar branches. The P50 following freeze treatments was approximately 50 % of the pre-freeze values. The effect tended to be greater in freeze-thawed branches. Dynamic bending of the branches had no effect on either PLC or P50. In three out of four cases, there was a significant correlation between P50 and PLC. Frost fatigue occurred in both apple and poplar, two unrelated species with different drought and frost tolerances, suggesting that it may be a widespread phenomenon that could impact the ecophysiology of temperate forests.

Forest tree responses to extreme drought and some biotic events: Towards a selection according to hazard tolerance?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bréda, Nathalie; Badeau, Vincent

2008-09-01

The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some extreme events could affect forest ecosystems. Forest tree response can be analysed using dendroecological methods, as tree-ring widths are strongly controlled by climatic or biotic events. Years with such events induce similar tree responses and are called pointer years. They can result from extreme climatic events like frost, a heat wave, spring water logging, drought or insect damage… Forest tree species showed contrasting responses to climatic hazards, depending on their sensitivity to water shortage or temperature hardening, as illustrated from our dendrochronological database. For foresters, a drought or a pest disease is an extreme event if visible and durable symptoms are induced (leaf discolouration, leaf loss, perennial organs mortality, tree dieback and mortality). These symptoms here are shown, lagging one or several years behind a climatic or biotic event, from forest decline cases in progress since the 2003 drought or attributed to previous severe droughts or defoliations in France. Tree growth or vitality recovery is illustrated, and the functional interpretation of the long lasting memory of trees is discussed. A coupled approach linking dendrochronology and ecophysiology helps in discussing vulnerability of forest stands, and suggests management advices in order to mitigate extreme drought and cope with selective mortality.

Testing for Independence between Evolutionary Processes.

PubMed

Behdenna, Abdelkader; Pothier, Joël; Abby, Sophie S; Lambert, Amaury; Achaz, Guillaume

2016-09-01

Evolutionary events co-occurring along phylogenetic trees usually point to complex adaptive phenomena, sometimes implicating epistasis. While a number of methods have been developed to account for co-occurrence of events on the same internal or external branch of an evolutionary tree, there is a need to account for the larger diversity of possible relative positions of events in a tree. Here we propose a method to quantify to what extent two or more evolutionary events are associated on a phylogenetic tree. The method is applicable to any discrete character, like substitutions within a coding sequence or gains/losses of a biological function. Our method uses a general approach to statistically test for significant associations between events along the tree, which encompasses both events inseparable on the same branch, and events genealogically ordered on different branches. It assumes that the phylogeny and themapping of branches is known without errors. We address this problem from the statistical viewpoint by a linear algebra representation of the localization of the evolutionary events on the tree.We compute the full probability distribution of the number of paired events occurring in the same branch or in different branches of the tree, under a null model of independence where each type of event occurs at a constant rate uniformly inthephylogenetic tree. The strengths andweaknesses of themethodare assessed via simulations;we then apply the method to explore the loss of cell motility in intracellular pathogens. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Metapopulation Dynamics of the Mistletoe and Its Host in Savanna Areas with Different Fire Occurrence

PubMed Central

Teodoro, Grazielle Sales; van den Berg, Eduardo; Arruda, Rafael

2013-01-01

Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads. PMID:23776554

[Sectional structure of a tree. Model analysis of the vertical biomass distribution].

PubMed

Galitskiĭ, V V

2010-01-01

A model has been proposed for the architecture of a tree in which virtual trees appear rhythmically on the treetop. Each consecutive virtual tree is a part of the previous tree. The difference between two adjacent virtual trees is a section--an element of the real tree structure. In case of a spruce, the section represents a verticil of a stem with the corresponding internode. Dynamics of a photosynthesizing part of the physiologically active biomass of each section differ from the corresponding dynamics of the virtual trees and the whole real tree. If the tree biomass dynamics has a sigma-shaped form, then the section dynamics have to be bell-shaped. It means that the lower stem should accordingly become bare, which is typically observed in nature. Model analysis reveals the limiting, in the age, form of trees to be an "umbrella". It can be observed in nature and is an outcome of physical limitation of the tree height combined with the sigma-shaped form of the tree biomass dynamics. Variation of model parameters provides for various forms of the tree biomass distribution along the height, which can be associated with certain biological species of trees.

Seasonality and Disturbance Events in the Carbon Isotope Record of Pinus elliottii Tree Rings from Big Pine Key, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebenack, C.; Anderson, W. T.; Cherubini, P.

2012-12-01

The South Florida coastal ecosystem is among the world's subtropical coastlines which are threatened by the potential effects of climate change. A well-developed localized paleohistory is essential in the understanding of the role climate variability/change has on both hydrological dynamics and disturbance event frequency and intensity; this understanding can then aid in the development of better predictive models. High resolution paleoclimate proxies, such as those developed from tree-ring archives, may be useful tools for extrapolating actual climate trends over time from the overlapping long-term and short-term climate cycles, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In South Florida, both the AMO and ENSO strongly influence seasonal precipitation, and a more complete grasp of how these cycles have affected the region in the past could be applied to future freshwater management practices. Dendrochronology records for the terrestrial subtropics, including South Florida, are sparse because seasonality for this region is precipitation-driven; this is in contrast to the drastic temperature changes experienced in the temperate latitudes. Subtropical seasonality may lead to the complete lack of visible rings or to the formation of ring structures that may or may not represent annual growth. Fortunately, it has recently been demonstrated that Pinus elliottii trees in South Florida produce distinct annual growth rings; however ring width was not found to significantly correlate with either the AMO or ENSO. Dendrochronology studies may be taken a step beyond the physical tree-ring proxies by using the carbon isotope ratios to infer information about physiological controls and environmental factors that affect the distribution of isotopes within the plant. It has been well established that the stable isotope composition of cellulose can be related to precipitation, drought, large-scale ocean/atmospheric oscillations, and disturbance events, such as tropical cyclone impacts. Because slash pine growth is dependent on water availability, a chronology developed using carbon isotopes may provide greater insight into plant stress over time and ultimately may lead to better correlations with climate oscillations. The work presented here is the result of a carbon-isotope study of four slash pine trees located across a freshwater gradient on Big Pine Key, Florida. A site chronology has been developed by cross-dating the δ13C records for each of the trees. The tree located on the distal edge of the freshwater gradient shows an overall enriched isotopic signature over time compared to the trees growing over a deeper part of the local freshwater lens, indicating that these trees are sensitive to water stress. In addition, the carbon isotope data show seasonal stomatal activity in the trees and indicate the timing of two disturbance events.

Speciation dynamics in the SE Asian tropics: Putting a time perspective on the phylogeny and biogeography of Sundaland tree squirrels, Sundasciurus.

PubMed

den Tex, Robert-Jan; Thorington, Richard; Maldonado, Jesus E; Leonard, Jennifer A

2010-05-01

Tropical rainforests are well known for their extraordinarily high levels of biodiversity. The origin of this species richness is still debated. For instance, the museum hypothesis states that over evolutionary time more and more species will accumulate with relatively few extinctions. In contrast, the Pleistocene diversification model argues that during the last 2 million years, climatic factors (glaciations) caused environmental changes that drove isolation and vicariant speciation events. In this study, we construct a molecular phylogeny of the Sundaland (Malay Peninsula, Sumata, Borneo, Palawan) and Greater Mindanao (Mindanao, Samar, Leyte) tree squirrels (genus Sundasciurus). Our results show that most speciation events in this forest dependent taxon occurred before the Pleistocene and that even the timing of intra-specific splits among populations from different landmasses are relatively old. Additionally, we found unexpectedly high divergence within and between highland populations of S. tenuis on Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula, highlighting the importance of Pliocene events in both speciation and within species divergences in this region. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Land use history and population dynamics of free-standing figs in a maturing forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albrecht, Larissa; Stallard, Robert F.; Kalko, Elisabeth K.V.

2017-01-01

Figs (Ficus sp.) are often considered as keystone resources which strongly influence tropical forest ecosystems. We used long-term tree-census data to track the population dynamics of two abundant free-standing fig species, Ficus insipida and F. yoponensis, on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), a 15.6-km2 island in Lake Gatún, Panama. Vegetation cover on BCI consists of a mosaic of old growth (>400 years) and maturing (about 90–150 year old) secondary rainforest. Locations and conditions of fig trees have been mapped and monitored on BCI for more than 35 years (1973–2011), with a focus on the Lutz Catchment area (25 ha). The original distribution of the fig trees shortly after the construction of the Panama Canal was derived from an aerial photograph from 1927 and was compared with previous land use and forest status. The distribution of both fig species (~850 trees) is restricted to secondary forest. Of the original 119 trees observed in Lutz Catchment in 1973, >70% of F. insipida and >90% of F. yoponensis had died by 2011. Observations in other areas on BCI support the trend of declining free-standing figs. We interpret the decline of these figs on BCI as a natural process within a maturing tropical lowland forest. Senescence of the fig trees appears to have been accelerated by severe droughts such as the strong El Niño event in the year 1982/83. Because figs form such an important food resource for frugivores, this shift in resource availability is likely to have cascading effects on frugivore populations.

Land use history and population dynamics of free-standing figs in a maturing forest

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Figs (Ficus sp.) are often considered as keystone resources which strongly influence tropical forest ecosystems. We used long-term tree-census data to track the population dynamics of two abundant free-standing fig species, Ficus insipida and F. yoponensis, on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), a 15.6-km2 island in Lake Gatún, Panama. Vegetation cover on BCI consists of a mosaic of old growth (>400 years) and maturing (about 90–150 year old) secondary rainforest. Locations and conditions of fig trees have been mapped and monitored on BCI for more than 35 years (1973–2011), with a focus on the Lutz Catchment area (25 ha). The original distribution of the fig trees shortly after the construction of the Panama Canal was derived from an aerial photograph from 1927 and was compared with previous land use and forest status. The distribution of both fig species (~850 trees) is restricted to secondary forest. Of the original 119 trees observed in Lutz Catchment in 1973, >70% of F. insipida and >90% of F. yoponensis had died by 2011. Observations in other areas on BCI support the trend of declining free-standing figs. We interpret the decline of these figs on BCI as a natural process within a maturing tropical lowland forest. Senescence of the fig trees appears to have been accelerated by severe droughts such as the strong El Niño event in the year 1982/83. Because figs form such an important food resource for frugivores, this shift in resource availability is likely to have cascading effects on frugivore populations. PMID:28542161

Description of an establishment event by the invasive Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in a suburban landscape in the northeastern United States

PubMed Central

Pepper, Eugene; Davis, Kevin; Trotter, Robert Talbot

2017-01-01

The establishment of non-native species is commonly described as occurring in three phases: arrival, establishment, and dispersal. Both arrival and dispersal by the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky), a xylophagous Cerambycid native to China and the Korean peninsula, has been documented for multiple locations in both North America and Europe, however the transitional phase, establishment, is not well understood for this species due to the need to rapidly remove populations to prevent dispersal and assist eradication, and the evident variation in the behavior of populations. Here we describe the dynamics of an establishment event for the Asian longhorned beetle in a small, isolated population within the regulated quarantine zone near Worcester, Massachusetts, USA. These data were collected during an opportunity afforded by logistical limits on the Cooperative Asian Longhorned Beetle Eradication Program administered by state, federal, and local government partners. Seventy-one infested red maple (Acer rubrum) trees and 456 interspersed un-infested trees were surveyed in an isolated, recently established population within a ~0.29 ha stand in a suburban wetland conservation area in which nearly 90% of the trees were host species, and nearly 80% were Acer rubrum. Tree-ring analyses show that within this establishing population, Asian longhorned beetles initially infested one or two A. rubrum, before moving through the stand to infest additional A. rubrum based not on distance or direction, but on tree size, with infestation biased towards trees with larger trunk diameters. Survey data from the larger landscape suggest this population may have generated long-distance dispersers (~1400 m), and that these dispersal events occurred before the originally infested host trees were fully exploited by the beetle. The distribution and intensity of damage documented in this population suggest dispersal here may have been spatially more rapid and diffuse than in other documented infestations. Dispersal at these larger spatial scales also implies that when beetles move beyond the closed canopy of the stand, the direction of dispersal may be linked to prevailing winds. PMID:28727772

Fault Tree Analysis: An Operations Research Tool for Identifying and Reducing Undesired Events in Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, Bruce O.; Petersen, Paul D.

This paper explores the fault-tree analysis approach to isolating failure modes within a system. Fault tree investigates potentially undesirable events and then looks for failures in sequence that would lead to their occurring. Relationships among these events are symbolized by AND or OR logic gates, AND used when single events must coexist to…

In Vitro Experimental Model for the Long-Term Analysis of Cellular Dynamics During Bronchial Tree Development from Lung Epithelial Cells

PubMed Central

Maruta, Naomichi; Marumoto, Moegi

2017-01-01

Lung branching morphogenesis has been studied for decades, but the underlying developmental mechanisms are still not fully understood. Cellular movements dynamically change during the branching process, but it is difficult to observe long-term cellular dynamics by in vivo or tissue culture experiments. Therefore, developing an in vitro experimental model of bronchial tree would provide an essential tool for developmental biology, pathology, and systems biology. In this study, we succeeded in reconstructing a bronchial tree in vitro by using primary human bronchial epithelial cells. A high concentration gradient of bronchial epithelial cells was required for branching initiation, whereas homogeneously distributed endothelial cells induced the formation of successive branches. Subsequently, the branches grew in size to the order of millimeter. The developed model contains only two types of cells and it facilitates the analysis of lung branching morphogenesis. By taking advantage of our experimental model, we carried out long-term time-lapse observations, which revealed self-assembly, collective migration with leader cells, rotational motion, and spiral motion of epithelial cells in each developmental event. Mathematical simulation was also carried out to analyze the self-assembly process and it revealed simple rules that govern cellular dynamics. Our experimental model has provided many new insights into lung development and it has the potential to accelerate the study of developmental mechanisms, pattern formation, left–right asymmetry, and disease pathogenesis of the human lung. PMID:28471293

jsPhyloSVG: a javascript library for visualizing interactive and vector-based phylogenetic trees on the web.

PubMed

Smits, Samuel A; Ouverney, Cleber C

2010-08-18

Many software packages have been developed to address the need for generating phylogenetic trees intended for print. With an increased use of the web to disseminate scientific literature, there is a need for phylogenetic trees to be viewable across many types of devices and feature some of the interactive elements that are integral to the browsing experience. We propose a novel approach for publishing interactive phylogenetic trees. We present a javascript library, jsPhyloSVG, which facilitates constructing interactive phylogenetic trees from raw Newick or phyloXML formats directly within the browser in Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG) format. It is designed to work across all major browsers and renders an alternative format for those browsers that do not support SVG. The library provides tools for building rectangular and circular phylograms with integrated charting. Interactive features may be integrated and made to respond to events such as clicks on any element of the tree, including labels. jsPhyloSVG is an open-source solution for rendering dynamic phylogenetic trees. It is capable of generating complex and interactive phylogenetic trees across all major browsers without the need for plugins. It is novel in supporting the ability to interpret the tree inference formats directly, exposing the underlying markup to data-mining services. The library source code, extensive documentation and live examples are freely accessible at www.jsphylosvg.com.

Knowledge engineering in volcanology: Practical claims and general approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pshenichny, Cyril A.

2014-10-01

Knowledge engineering, being a branch of artificial intelligence, offers a variety of methods for elicitation and structuring of knowledge in a given domain. Only a few of them (ontologies and semantic nets, event/probability trees, Bayesian belief networks and event bushes) are known to volcanologists. Meanwhile, the tasks faced by volcanology and the solutions found so far favor a much wider application of knowledge engineering, especially tools for handling dynamic knowledge. This raises some fundamental logical and mathematical problems and requires an organizational effort, but may strongly improve panel discussions, enhance decision support, optimize physical modeling and support scientific collaboration.

Jane: a new tool for the cophylogeny reconstruction problem.

PubMed

Conow, Chris; Fielder, Daniel; Ovadia, Yaniv; Libeskind-Hadas, Ran

2010-02-03

This paper describes the theory and implementation of a new software tool, called Jane, for the study of historical associations. This problem arises in parasitology (associations of hosts and parasites), molecular systematics (associations of orderings and genes), and biogeography (associations of regions and orderings). The underlying problem is that of reconciling pairs of trees subject to biologically plausible events and costs associated with these events. Existing software tools for this problem have strengths and limitations, and the new Jane tool described here provides functionality that complements existing tools. The Jane software tool uses a polynomial time dynamic programming algorithm in conjunction with a genetic algorithm to find very good, and often optimal, solutions even for relatively large pairs of trees. The tool allows the user to provide rich timing information on both the host and parasite trees. In addition the user can limit host switch distance and specify multiple host switch costs by specifying regions in the host tree and costs for host switches between pairs of regions. Jane also provides a graphical user interface that allows the user to interactively experiment with modifications to the solutions found by the program. Jane is shown to be a useful tool for cophylogenetic reconstruction. Its functionality complements existing tools and it is therefore likely to be of use to researchers in the areas of parasitology, molecular systematics, and biogeography.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

STRIDE: Species Tree Root Inference from Gene Duplication Events.

PubMed

Emms, David M; Kelly, Steven

2017-12-01

The correct interpretation of any phylogenetic tree is dependent on that tree being correctly rooted. We present STRIDE, a fast, effective, and outgroup-free method for identification of gene duplication events and species tree root inference in large-scale molecular phylogenetic analyses. STRIDE identifies sets of well-supported in-group gene duplication events from a set of unrooted gene trees, and analyses these events to infer a probability distribution over an unrooted species tree for the location of its root. We show that STRIDE correctly identifies the root of the species tree in multiple large-scale molecular phylogenetic data sets spanning a wide range of timescales and taxonomic groups. We demonstrate that the novel probability model implemented in STRIDE can accurately represent the ambiguity in species tree root assignment for data sets where information is limited. Furthermore, application of STRIDE to outgroup-free inference of the origin of the eukaryotic tree resulted in a root probability distribution that provides additional support for leading hypotheses for the origin of the eukaryotes. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Geochemical responses of forested catchments to bark beetle infestation: Evidence from high frequency in-stream electrical conductivity monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Ye; Langhammer, Jakub; Jarsjö, Jerker

2017-07-01

Under the present conditions of climate warming, there has been an increased frequency of bark beetle-induced tree mortality in Asia, Europe, and North America. This study analyzed seven years of high frequency monitoring of in-stream electrical conductivity (EC), hydro-climatic conditions, and vegetation dynamics in four experimental catchments located in headwaters of the Sumava Mountains, Central Europe. The aim was to determine the effects of insect-induced forest disturbance on in-stream EC at multiple timescales, including annual and seasonal average conditions, daily variability, and responses to individual rainfall events. Results showed increased annual average in-stream EC values in the bark beetle-infected catchments, with particularly elevated EC values during baseflow conditions. This is likely caused by the cumulative loading of soil water and groundwater that discharge excess amounts of substances such as nitrogen and carbon, which are released via the decomposition of the needles, branches, and trunks of dead trees, into streams. Furthermore, we concluded that infestation-induced changes in event-scale dynamics may be largely responsible for the observed shifts in annual average conditions. For example, systematic EC differences between baseflow conditions and event flow conditions in relatively undisturbed catchments were essentially eliminated in catchments that were highly disturbed by bark beetles. These changes developed relatively rapidly after infestation and have long-lasting (decadal-scale) effects, implying that cumulative impacts of increasingly frequent bark beetle outbreaks may contribute to alterations of the hydrogeochemical conditions in more vulnerable mountain regions.

Coronal Mass Ejection Data Clustering and Visualization of Decision Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ruizhe; Angryk, Rafal A.; Riley, Pete; Filali Boubrahimi, Soukaina

2018-05-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be categorized as either “magnetic clouds” (MCs) or non-MCs. Features such as a large magnetic field, low plasma-beta, and low proton temperature suggest that a CME event is also an MC event; however, so far there is neither a definitive method nor an automatic process to distinguish the two. Human labeling is time-consuming, and results can fluctuate owing to the imprecise definition of such events. In this study, we approach the problem of MC and non-MC distinction from a time series data analysis perspective and show how clustering can shed some light on this problem. Although many algorithms exist for traditional data clustering in the Euclidean space, they are not well suited for time series data. Problems such as inadequate distance measure, inaccurate cluster center description, and lack of intuitive cluster representations need to be addressed for effective time series clustering. Our data analysis in this work is twofold: clustering and visualization. For clustering we compared the results from the popular hierarchical agglomerative clustering technique to a distance density clustering heuristic we developed previously for time series data clustering. In both cases, dynamic time warping will be used for similarity measure. For classification as well as visualization, we use decision trees to aggregate single-dimensional clustering results to form a multidimensional time series decision tree, with averaged time series to present each decision. In this study, we achieved modest accuracy and, more importantly, an intuitive interpretation of how different parameters contribute to an MC event.

Comparison of rainfall and stemflow peak intensities and infiltration patterns for a mature coastal forest in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meerveld, Ilja; Spencer, Sheena

2017-04-01

Most studies on stemflow have focused on the amount of stemflow in different forests or for different rainfall events. So far, few studies have looked at how stemflow intensity varies during rainfall events and how peak stemflow intensities compare to peak rainfall intensities. High stemflow intensities at the base of the tree, where roots and other preferential flow pathways are prevalent, may lead to faster and deeper infiltration of stemflow than rainfall and thus affect soil moisture dynamics and potentially also subsurface stormflow generation. We measured stemflow intensities for three Western hemlock, two Western red cedar, two Douglas-fir and one Birch tree in a mature coniferous forest in coastal British Columbia to determine how stemflow intensities were related to rainfall intensity. We sprayed a blue dye tracer on two Western hemlock trees (29 and 52 cm diameter at breast height (DBH)) to determine how stemflow water flows through the soil and to what depth it infiltrates. We also applied the blue dye tracer to an area between the trees to compare infiltration of stemflow with rainfall. Stemflow increased linearly with event total precipitation for all trees. The larger trees almost exclusively had funneling ratios (i.e. the volume of stemflow per unit basal area divided by the rainfall) smaller than one, regardless of species and event size. The funneling ratios for the small trees were generally larger for larger events (up to a funneling ratio of 20) but there was considerable scatter in this relation. Trees with a DBH <35 cm, which represent 24% of the total basal area of the study site, contributed 72% of the estimated total stemflow amount. Stemflow intensities (volume of stemflow per unit basal area per hour) often increased in a stepwise manner. When there were two precipitation bursts, stemflow intensity was usually highest during the second precipitation burst. However, when there were several hours of very low rainfall intensity between consecutive precipitation bursts, stemflow intensity was lower during the first burst after the break in rainfall. Peak stemflow intensities were higher than the maximum precipitation intensity. The blue dye that was applied to the tree stems was found more frequently at depth than near the soil surface. Stemflow flowed primarily through the 10 cm organic rich upper layer of the soil around the tree before flowing between or along live and dead roots, inside dead roots, around rocks and boulders deeper into the soil. Lateral flow was observed above a dense clay layer but where roots were able to penetrate the clay layer, the infiltrating water flowed deeper into the soil and (almost) reached the soil-bedrock interface. Stemflow appeared to infiltrate deeper (122 cm) than rainfall (85 cm) but this difference was in part due to variations in maximum soil depth. These results suggest that even though stemflow is only a minor component of the water balance, the double funnelling of stemflow may significantly affect soil moisture, recharge and runoff generation.

77 FR 61024 - Notice of Public Meeting and Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-05

... public meeting and public comments--The National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26-day event... National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26-day event. The general plan and theme for the event... comments and suggestions on the planning of the 2012 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26...

Seasonality and Disturbance Events in the Carbon Isotope Record of Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii) Tree Rings from Big Pine Key, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebenack, C.; Anderson, W. T.; Cherubini, P.

2011-12-01

The South Florida coastal ecosystem is among the world's subtropical coastlines which are threatened by the potential effects of climate change. A well-developed localized paleohistory is essential in the understanding of the role climate variability/change has on both hydrological dynamics and disturbance event frequency and intensity; this understanding can then aid in the development of better predictive models. High resolution paleoclimate proxies, such as those developed from tree-ring archives, may be useful tools for extrapolating actual climate trends over time from the overlapping long-term and short-term climate cycles, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In South Florida, both the AMO and ENSO strongly influence seasonal precipitation, and a more complete grasp of how these cycles have affected the region in the past could be applied to future freshwater management practices. Dendrochronology records for the terrestrial subtropics, including South Florida, are sparse because seasonality for this region is precipitation driven; this is in contrast to the drastic temperature changes experienced in the temperate latitudes. Subtropical seasonality may lead to the complete lack of visible rings or to the formation of ring structures that may or may not represent annual growth. Fortunately, it has recently been demonstrated that Pinus elliottii trees in South Florida produce distinct annual growth rings; however ring width was not found to significantly correlate with either the AMO or ENSO. Dendrochronology studies may be taken a step beyond the physical tree-ring proxies by using the carbon isotope ratios to infer information about physiological controls and environmental factors that affect the distribution of isotopes within the plant. It has been well established that the stable isotope composition of cellulose can be related to precipitation, drought, large-scale ocean/atmospheric oscillations, and disturbance events. Because slash pine growth is dependent on water availability, a chronology developed using carbon isotopes may provide greater insight into plant stress over time and ultimately may lead to better correlations with climate oscillations. The work presented here is the preliminary result of a carbon-isotope study of four slash pine trees from Big Pine Key, Florida. Initial δ13C data show seasonal stomatal activity in the trees and indicate the timing of possible disturbance events.

Revisiting the two-layer hypothesis: coexistence of alternative functional rooting strategies in savannas.

PubMed

Holdo, Ricardo M

2013-01-01

The two-layer hypothesis of tree-grass coexistence posits that trees and grasses differ in rooting depth, with grasses exploiting soil moisture in shallow layers while trees have exclusive access to deep water. The lack of clear differences in maximum rooting depth between these two functional groups, however, has caused this model to fall out of favor. The alternative model, the demographic bottleneck hypothesis, suggests that trees and grasses occupy overlapping rooting niches, and that stochastic events such as fires and droughts result in episodic tree mortality at various life stages, thus preventing trees from otherwise displacing grasses, at least in mesic savannas. Two potential problems with this view are: 1) we lack data on functional rooting profiles in trees and grasses, and these profiles are not necessarily reflected by differences in maximum or physical rooting depth, and 2) subtle, difficult-to-detect differences in rooting profiles between the two functional groups may be sufficient to result in coexistence in many situations. To tackle this question, I coupled a plant uptake model with a soil moisture dynamics model to explore the environmental conditions under which functional rooting profiles with equal rooting depth but different depth distributions (i.e., shapes) can coexist when competing for water. I show that, as long as rainfall inputs are stochastic, coexistence based on rooting differences is viable under a wide range of conditions, even when these differences are subtle. The results also indicate that coexistence mechanisms based on rooting niche differentiation are more viable under some climatic and edaphic conditions than others. This suggests that the two-layer model is both viable and stochastic in nature, and that a full understanding of tree-grass coexistence and dynamics may require incorporating fine-scale rooting differences between these functional groups and realistic stochastic climate drivers into future models.

Revisiting the Two-Layer Hypothesis: Coexistence of Alternative Functional Rooting Strategies in Savannas

PubMed Central

Holdo, Ricardo M.

2013-01-01

The two-layer hypothesis of tree-grass coexistence posits that trees and grasses differ in rooting depth, with grasses exploiting soil moisture in shallow layers while trees have exclusive access to deep water. The lack of clear differences in maximum rooting depth between these two functional groups, however, has caused this model to fall out of favor. The alternative model, the demographic bottleneck hypothesis, suggests that trees and grasses occupy overlapping rooting niches, and that stochastic events such as fires and droughts result in episodic tree mortality at various life stages, thus preventing trees from otherwise displacing grasses, at least in mesic savannas. Two potential problems with this view are: 1) we lack data on functional rooting profiles in trees and grasses, and these profiles are not necessarily reflected by differences in maximum or physical rooting depth, and 2) subtle, difficult-to-detect differences in rooting profiles between the two functional groups may be sufficient to result in coexistence in many situations. To tackle this question, I coupled a plant uptake model with a soil moisture dynamics model to explore the environmental conditions under which functional rooting profiles with equal rooting depth but different depth distributions (i.e., shapes) can coexist when competing for water. I show that, as long as rainfall inputs are stochastic, coexistence based on rooting differences is viable under a wide range of conditions, even when these differences are subtle. The results also indicate that coexistence mechanisms based on rooting niche differentiation are more viable under some climatic and edaphic conditions than others. This suggests that the two-layer model is both viable and stochastic in nature, and that a full understanding of tree-grass coexistence and dynamics may require incorporating fine-scale rooting differences between these functional groups and realistic stochastic climate drivers into future models. PMID:23950900

Theory and Practice in Determining the Long-Term Spatial Productivity of Drylands: A California Blue Oak Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Therrell, M. D.; Emanuel, R. E.

2007-12-01

Herbivory, fire, and climatic events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña have been shown to have proximal and evolutionary effects on the dynamics of Dryland fauna, flora, and soils. However, spatially-explicit historical impacts of these climatic events on Dryland ecosystems is not known. Consequently, this paper has the purpose of presenting the theory and practical application for estimating the historical spatial impacts of these climatic events. We hypothesize that if remotely-sensed vegetation indices (VI) are correlated to historical tree ring data and also to functional ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) as measured by eddy covariance flux towers, then VIs can be used to spatially and temporally distribute GPP and NEP within the species- or community-specific land cover extent over the length of the tree ring record of selected Dryland ecosystems. Secondly, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital terrain model (DTM) data has been used to estimate tree height and in conjuction with plant allometric equations: biomass and standing carbon in various forest ecosystems. Tree height data in relation to tree ring age data and fire history can be used to reconstruct the spatial distribution of savanna demographic age structure, predict standing carbon and thus provide a complementary and independent dataset for comparison to DTMs from Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived GPP spatial maps. We developed a database consisting of a dendrochronology record, SRTM data, globa fre history data, Long term Data Record Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (LTDR AVHRR NDVI, 1981 - 2003), contemporary gridded climate data, National Land Cover Data (NLCD), and short term eddy covariance flux tower data for the California Blue Oak woodland ecosystem to estimate both regional aboveground productivity and past disturbance history relative climate, particularly droughts, for the last 500 years.

Effects of dormancy progression and low-temperature response on changes in the sorbitol concentration in xylem sap of Japanese pear during winter season.

PubMed

Ito, Akiko; Sugiura, Toshihiko; Sakamoto, Daisuke; Moriguchi, Takaya

2013-04-01

In order to elucidate which physiological event(s) are involved in the seasonal changes of carbohydrate dynamics during winter, we examined the effects of different low temperatures on the carbohydrate concentrations of Japanese pear (Pyrus pyrifolia (Burm.) Nakai). For four winter seasons, large increases in the sorbitol concentration of shoot xylem sap occurred during mid- to late December, possibly due to the endodormancy completion and low-temperature responses. When trees were kept at 15 °C from 3 November to 3 December in order to postpone the initiation and completion of chilling accumulation that would break endodormancy, sorbitol accumulation in xylem sap was always higher from trees with sufficient chilling accumulation than from trees that received insufficient chilling. However, an additional increase in xylem sap sorbitol occurred around late December in trees regardless of whether their chilling accumulation naturally progressed or was postponed. To examine different temperature effects more closely, we compared the carbohydrate concentrations of trees subjected to either 6 or 0 °C treatment. The sorbitol concentration in xylem sap tremendously increased at 0 °C treatment compared with 6 °C treatment. However, an additional increase in xylem sap sorbitol occurred at both the temperatures when sufficient chilling accumulated with a peak coinciding with the peak expression in shoots of the sorbitol transporter gene (PpSOT2). Interestingly, the total carbohydrate concentration of shoots tremendously increased with exposure to 0 °C compared with exposure to 6 °C, but was not affected by the amount of accumulated chilling. Instead, as chilling accumulated the ratio of sorbitol to total soluble sugars in shoots increased. We presumed that carbohydrates in the shoot tissues may be converted to sorbitol and loaded into the xylem sap so that the sorbitol accumulation patterns were synchronized with the progression of dormancy, whereas the total carbohydrate transported into shoots from other storage organs may be related to freezing tolerance acquisition independent of dormancy progression. We thus propose that there are different effects of dormancy progression and low-temperature responses on carbohydrate dynamics in Japanese pear.

Quantification of dynamic soil-vegetation feedbacks following an isotopically labelled precipitation pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piayda, Arndt; Dubbert, Maren; Siegwolf, Rolf; Cuntz, Matthias; Werner, Christiane

2017-05-01

The presence of vegetation alters hydrological cycles of ecosystems. Complex plant-soil interactions govern the fate of precipitation input and water transitions through ecosystem compartments. Disentangling these interactions is a major challenge in the field of ecohydrology and a pivotal foundation for understanding the carbon cycle of semi-arid ecosystems. Stable water isotopes can be used in this context as tracer to quantify water movement through soil-vegetation-atmosphere interfaces. The aim of this study is to disentangle vegetation effects on soil water infiltration and distribution as well as dynamics of soil evaporation and grassland water use in a Mediterranean cork oak woodland during dry conditions. An irrigation experiment using δ18O labelled water was carried out in order to quantify distinct effects of tree and herbaceous vegetation on the infiltration and distribution of event water in the soil profile. Dynamic responses of soil and herbaceous vegetation fluxes to precipitation regarding event water use, water uptake depth plasticity, and contribution to ecosystem soil evaporation and transpiration were quantified. Total water loss to the atmosphere from bare soil was as high as from vegetated soil, utilizing large amounts of unproductive evaporation for transpiration, but infiltration rates decreased. No adjustments of main root water uptake depth to changes in water availability could be observed during the experiment. This forces understorey plants to compete with adjacent trees for water in deeper soil layers at the onset of summer. Thus, understorey plants are subjected to chronic water deficits faster, leading to premature senescence at the onset of drought. Despite this water competition, the presence of cork oak trees fosters infiltration and reduces evapotranspirative water losses from the understorey and the soil, both due to altered microclimatic conditions under crown shading. This study highlights complex soil-plant-atmosphere and inter-species interactions controlling rain pulse transitions through a typical Mediterranean savannah ecosystem, disentangled by the use of stable water isotopes.

Intrastorm scale rainfall interception dynamics in a mature coniferous forest stand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iida, Shin'ichi; Levia, Delphis F.; Shimizu, Akira; Shimizu, Takanori; Tamai, Koji; Nobuhiro, Tatsuhiko; Kabeya, Naoki; Noguchi, Shoji; Sawano, Shinji; Araki, Makoto

2017-05-01

Canopy interception of rainfall is an important process in the water balance of forests. The intrastorm dynamics of canopy interception is less well understood than event scale interception. Accordingly, armed with measurements of hourly interception intensity (i) from the field, this study is among the first to examine the differences in canopy interception dynamics between the first and second halves of rainfall events to quantify dynamic storage values for a coniferous forest in Japan. At this site, experimental results demonstrated that: (1) the relationship between interception loss (I) and gross rainfall (GR) at the event scale is better explained by a parabolic curve than a linear relationship, and there is a low correlation between rainfall intensity (gr) and i; (2) the ratio of accumulated i during the first half (IF) to that of gr (GRF) was larger than the second half (IS/GRS), with no significant correlations between potential evaporation during first half (PEF) vs IF or the second half (PES) vs IS; and (3) water storage capacity was similar to the magnitude of maximum I. By emphasizing the comparison between IF and IS, this study concludes that the water storage on tree surface is more important than losses by wet canopy evaporation and splash during rain. This study also adds insights into intrastorm interception dynamics of coniferous forests which are necessary to better model and forecast interception losses.

Use of Bayesian event trees in semi-quantitative volcano eruption forecasting and hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Heather; Pallister, John; Newhall, Chris

2015-04-01

Use of Bayesian event trees to forecast eruptive activity during volcano crises is an increasingly common practice for the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in collaboration with foreign counterparts. This semi-quantitative approach combines conceptual models of volcanic processes with current monitoring data and patterns of occurrence to reach consensus probabilities. This approach allows a response team to draw upon global datasets, local observations, and expert judgment, where the relative influence of these data depends upon the availability and quality of monitoring data and the degree to which the volcanic history is known. The construction of such event trees additionally relies upon existence and use of relevant global databases and documented past periods of unrest. Because relevant global databases may be underpopulated or nonexistent, uncertainty in probability estimations may be large. Our 'hybrid' approach of combining local and global monitoring data and expert judgment facilitates discussion and constructive debate between disciplines: including seismology, gas geochemistry, geodesy, petrology, physical volcanology and technology/engineering, where difference in opinion between response team members contributes to definition of the uncertainty in the probability estimations. In collaboration with foreign colleagues, we have created event trees for numerous areas experiencing volcanic unrest. Event trees are created for a specified time frame and are updated, revised, or replaced as the crisis proceeds. Creation of an initial tree is often prompted by a change in monitoring data, such that rapid assessment of probability is needed. These trees are intended as a vehicle for discussion and a way to document relevant data and models, where the target audience is the scientists themselves. However, the probabilities derived through the event-tree analysis can also be used to help inform communications with emergency managers and the public. VDAP trees evaluate probabilities of: magmatic intrusion, likelihood of eruption, magnitude of eruption, and types of associated hazardous events and their extents. In a few cases, trees have been extended to also assess and communicate vulnerability and relative risk.

Tree cover bimodality in savannas and forests emerging from the switching between two fire dynamics.

PubMed

De Michele, Carlo; Accatino, Francesco

2014-01-01

Moist savannas and tropical forests share the same climatic conditions and occur side by side. Experimental evidences show that the tree cover of these ecosystems exhibits a bimodal frequency distribution. This is considered as a proof of savanna-forest bistability, predicted by dynamic vegetation models based on non-linear differential equations. Here, we propose a change of perspective about the bimodality of tree cover distribution. We show, using a simple matrix model of tree dynamics, how the bimodality of tree cover can emerge from the switching between two linear dynamics of trees, one in presence and one in absence of fire, with a feedback between fire and trees. As consequence, we find that the transitions between moist savannas and tropical forests, if sharp, are not necessarily catastrophic.

Large Scale Data Analysis and Knowledge Extraction in Communication Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-31

this purpose, we developed a novel method the " Correlation Density Ran!C’ which finds probability density distribution of related frequent event on all...which is called " Correlation Density Rank", is developed to derive the community tree from the network. As in the real world, where a network is...Community Structure in Dynamic Social Networks using the Correlation Density Rank," 2014 ASE BigData/SocialCom/Cybersecurity Conference, Stanford

The carbon balance of reducing wildfire risk and restoring process: an analysis of 10-year post-treatment carbon dynamics in a mixed-conifer forest

Treesearch

Morgan L. Wiechmann; Matthew D. Hurteau; Malcolm P. North; George W. Koch; Lucie Jerabkova

2015-01-01

Forests sequester carbon from the atmosphere, helping mitigate climate change. In fire-prone forests, burn events result in direct and indirect emissions of carbon. High fire-induced tree mortality can cause a transition from a carbon sink to source, but thinning and prescribed burning can reduce fire severity and carbon loss when wildfire occurs. However, treatment...

Modeling the temporal dynamics of nonstructural carbohydrate pools in forest trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richardson, Andrew D.

Trees store carbohydrates, in the form of sugars and starch, as reserves to be used to power both future growth as well as to support day-to-day metabolic functions. These reserves are particularly important in the context of how trees cope with disturbance and stress—for example, as related to pest outbreaks, wind or ice damage, and extreme climate events. In this project, we measured the size of carbon reserves in forest trees, and determined how quickly these reserves are used and replaced—i.e., their “turnover time”. Our work was conducted at Harvard Forest, a temperate deciduous forest in central Massachusetts. Through fieldmore » sampling, laboratory-based chemical analyses, and allometric modeling, we scaled these measurements up to whole-tree NSC budgets. We used these data to test and improve computer simulation models of carbon flow through forest ecosystems. Our modeling focused on the mathematical representation of these stored carbon reserves, and we examined the sensitivity of model performance to different model structures. This project contributes to DOE’s goal to improve next-generation models of the earth system, and to understand the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.« less

Implementation of a Marauding Insect Module (MIM, version 1.0) in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS, version 2.6b4) dynamic vegetation-land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Price, David T.; Ramankutty, Navin; Parrott, Lael; Damon Matthews, H.

2016-04-01

Insects defoliate and kill plants in many ecosystems worldwide. The consequences of these natural processes on terrestrial ecology and nutrient cycling are well established, and their potential climatic effects resulting from modified land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, energy, and water are increasingly being recognized. We developed a Marauding Insect Module (MIM) to quantify, in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS), the consequences of insect activity on biogeochemical and biogeophysical fluxes, also accounting for the effects of altered vegetation dynamics. MIM can simulate damage from three different insect functional types: (1) defoliators on broadleaf deciduous trees, (2) defoliators on needleleaf evergreen trees, and (3) bark beetles on needleleaf evergreen trees, with the resulting impacts being estimated by IBIS based on the new, insect-modified state of the vegetation. MIM further accounts for the physical presence and gradual fall of insect-killed dead standing trees. The design of MIM should facilitate the addition of other insect types besides the ones already included and could guide the development of similar modules for other process-based vegetation models. After describing IBIS-MIM, we illustrate the usefulness of the model by presenting results spanning daily to centennial timescales for vegetation dynamics and cycling of carbon, energy, and water in a simplified setting and for bark beetles only. More precisely, we simulated 100 % mortality events from the mountain pine beetle for three locations in western Canada. We then show that these simulated impacts agree with many previous studies based on field measurements, satellite data, or modelling. MIM and similar tools should therefore be of great value in assessing the wide array of impacts resulting from insect-induced plant damage in the Earth system.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli

The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data miningmore » module« less

The Tunguska event in 1908: evidence from tree-ring anatomy.

PubMed

Vaganov, Evgenii A; Hughes, Malcolm K; Silkin, Pavel P; Nesvetailo, Valery D

2004-01-01

We analyzed tree rings in wood samples collected from some of the few surviving trees found close to the epicenter (within 4-5 km) of the Tunguska event that occurred on the last day of June 1908. Tree-ring growth shows a depression starting in the year after the event and continuing during a 4-5-year period. The most remarkable traces of the event were found in the rings' anatomical structure: (1) formation of "light" rings and a reduction of maximum density in 1908; (2) non-thickened tracheids (the cells that make up most of the wood volume) in the transition and latewood zones (the middle and last-formed parts of the ring, respectively); and (3) deformed tracheids, which are located on the 1908 annual ring outer boundary. In the majority of samples, normal earlywood and latewood tracheids were formed in all annual rings after 1908. The observed anomalies in wood anatomy suggest two main impacts of the Tunguska event on surviving trees--(1) defoliation and (2) direct mechanical stress on active xylem tissue. The mechanical stress needed to fell trees is less than the stress needed to cause the deformation of differentiating tracheids observed in trees close to the epicenter. In order to resolve this apparent contradiction, work is suggested on possible topographic modification of the overpressure experienced by these trees, as is an experimental test of the effects of such stresses on precisely analogous growing trees.

Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Online monitoring and conditional regression tree test: Useful tools for a better understanding of combined sewer network behavior.

PubMed

Bersinger, T; Bareille, G; Pigot, T; Bru, N; Le Hécho, I

2018-06-01

A good knowledge of the dynamic of pollutant concentration and flux in a combined sewer network is necessary when considering solutions to limit the pollutants discharged by combined sewer overflow (CSO) into receiving water during wet weather. Identification of the parameters that influence pollutant concentration and flux is important. Nevertheless, few studies have obtained satisfactory results for the identification of these parameters using statistical tools. Thus, this work uses a large database of rain events (116 over one year) obtained via continuous measurement of rainfall, discharge flow and chemical oxygen demand (COD) estimated using online turbidity for the identification of these parameters. We carried out a statistical study of the parameters influencing the maximum COD concentration, the discharge flow and the discharge COD flux. In this study a new test was used that has never been used in this field: the conditional regression tree test. We have demonstrated that the antecedent dry weather period, the rain event average intensity and the flow before the event are the three main factors influencing the maximum COD concentration during a rainfall event. Regarding the discharge flow, it is mainly influenced by the overall rainfall height but not by the maximum rainfall intensity. Finally, COD discharge flux is influenced by the discharge volume and the maximum COD concentration. Regression trees seem much more appropriate than common tests like PCA and PLS for this type of study as they take into account the thresholds and cumulative effects of various parameters as a function of the target variable. These results could help to improve sewer and CSO management in order to decrease the discharge of pollutants into receiving waters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

PubMed

Batke, Sven P; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L

2014-01-01

High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

Modelling Hurricane Exposure and Wind Speed on a Mesoclimate Scale: A Case Study from Cusuco NP, Honduras

PubMed Central

Batke, Sven P.; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS’s were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%. PMID:24614168

Inferring phylogenetic trees from the knowledge of rare evolutionary events.

PubMed

Hellmuth, Marc; Hernandez-Rosales, Maribel; Long, Yangjing; Stadler, Peter F

2018-06-01

Rare events have played an increasing role in molecular phylogenetics as potentially homoplasy-poor characters. In this contribution we analyze the phylogenetic information content from a combinatorial point of view by considering the binary relation on the set of taxa defined by the existence of a single event separating two taxa. We show that the graph-representation of this relation must be a tree. Moreover, we characterize completely the relationship between the tree of such relations and the underlying phylogenetic tree. With directed operations such as tandem-duplication-random-loss events in mind we demonstrate how non-symmetric information constrains the position of the root in the partially reconstructed phylogeny.

Paleo-event data standards for dendrochronology

Treesearch

Elaine Kennedy Sutherland; P. Brewer; W. Gross

2017-01-01

Extreme environmental events, such as storm winds, landslides, insect infestations, and wildfire, cause loss of life, resources, and human infrastructure. Disaster riskreduction analysis can be improved with information about past frequency, intensity, and spatial patterns of extreme events. Tree-ring analyses can provide such information: tree rings reflect events as...

The impact of within-herd genetic variation upon inferred transmission trees for foot-and-mouth disease virus.

PubMed

Valdazo-González, Begoña; Kim, Jan T; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Wadsworth, Jemma; Knowles, Nick J; Haydon, Daniel T; King, Donald P

2015-06-01

Full-genome sequences have been used to monitor the fine-scale dynamics of epidemics caused by RNA viruses. However, the ability of this approach to confidently reconstruct transmission trees is limited by the knowledge of the genetic diversity of viruses that exist within different epidemiological units. In order to address this question, this study investigated the variability of 45 foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) genome sequences (from 33 animals) that were collected during 2007 from eight premises (10 different herds) in the United Kingdom. Bayesian and statistical parsimony analysis demonstrated that these sequences exhibited clustering which was consistent with a transmission scenario describing herd-to-herd spread of the virus. As an alternative to analysing all of the available samples in future epidemics, the impact of randomly selecting one sequence from each of these herds was used to assess cost-effective methods that might be used to infer transmission trees during FMD outbreaks. Using these approaches, 85% and 91% of the resulting topologies were either identical or differed by only one edge from a reference tree comprising all of the sequences generated within the outbreak. The sequence distances that accrued during sequential transmission events between epidemiological units was estimated to be 4.6 nucleotides, although the genetic variability between viruses recovered from chronic carrier animals was higher than between viruses from animals with acute-stage infection: an observation which poses challenges for the use of simple approaches to infer transmission trees. This study helps to develop strategies for sampling during FMD outbreaks, and provides data that will guide the development of further models to support control policies in the event of virus incursions into FMD free countries. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... trees, or to respond to natural events provided that the activity is consistent with the Wild and Scenic...

Metastability for discontinuous dynamical systems under Lévy noise: Case study on Amazonian Vegetation.

PubMed

Serdukova, Larissa; Zheng, Yayun; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-08-24

For the tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, the most important issue to address is how stable is the desirable state against random perturbations. Extreme biotic and climatic events pose severe hazards to tropical rainforests. Their local effects are extremely stochastic and difficult to measure. Moreover, the direction and intensity of the response of forest trees to such perturbations are unknown, especially given the lack of efficient dynamical vegetation models to evaluate forest tree cover changes over time. In this study, we consider randomness in the mathematical modelling of forest trees by incorporating uncertainty through a stochastic differential equation. According to field-based evidence, the interactions between fires and droughts are a more direct mechanism that may describe sudden forest degradation in the south-eastern Amazon. In modeling the Amazonian vegetation system, we include symmetric α-stable Lévy perturbations. We report results of stability analysis of the metastable fertile forest state. We conclude that even a very slight threat to the forest state stability represents L´evy noise with large jumps of low intensity, that can be interpreted as a fire occurring in a non-drought year. During years of severe drought, high-intensity fires significantly accelerate the transition between a forest and savanna state.

Development of Envelope Curves for Predicting Void Dimensions from Overturned Trees

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

transport due to tree root throw: integrating tree population dynamics, wildfire, and geomorphic response (Gallaway et al. 2009...Johnson. 2009. Sediment transport due to tree root throw: Integrating tree population dynamics, wildfire and geomorphic response. Earth Surface Processes...environment, but not vegetation (Peterson and Leach 2008) ............................................................ 17 4.7 Pedologic and geomorphic impacts

Distributed Events in Sentinel: Design and Implementation of a Global Event Detector

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

local event detector and a global event detector to detect events. Global event detector in this case plays the role of a message sending/receiving than...significant in this case . The system performance will decrease with increase in the number of applications involved in global event detection. Yet from a...Figure 8: A Global event tree (2) 1. Global composite event is detected at the GED In this case , the whole global composite event tree is sent to the

Constructing event trees for volcanic crises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.; Hoblitt, R.

2002-01-01

Event trees are useful frameworks for discussing probabilities of possible outcomes of volcanic unrest. Each branch of the tree leads from a necessary prior event to a more specific outcome, e.g., from an eruption to a pyroclastic flow. Where volcanic processes are poorly understood, probability estimates might be purely empirical - utilizing observations of past and current activity and an assumption that the future will mimic the past or follow a present trend. If processes are better understood, probabilities might be estimated from a theoritical model, either subjectively or by numerical simulations. Use of Bayes' theorem aids in the estimation of how fresh unrest raises (or lowers) the probabilities of eruptions. Use of event trees during volcanic crises can help volcanologists to critically review their analysis of hazard, and help officials and individuals to compare volcanic risks with more familiar risks. Trees also emphasize the inherently probabilistic nature of volcano forecasts, with multiple possible outcomes.

Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

Analysis of the material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system is necessary to understand the limits and vulnerabilities of the system to internal threats. A self-appraisal helps the facility be prepared to respond to internal threats and reduce the risk of theft or diversion of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) fault tree was developed to depict the failure of the MPC&A system as a result of poor practices and random failures in the MC&A system. It can also be employed as a basis for assessing deliberate threats against a facility. MSET uses faultmore » tree analysis, which is a top-down approach to examining system failure. The analysis starts with identifying a potential undesirable event called a 'top event' and then determining the ways it can occur (e.g., 'Fail To Maintain Nuclear Materials Under The Purview Of The MC&A System'). The analysis proceeds by determining how the top event can be caused by individual or combined lower level faults or failures. These faults, which are the causes of the top event, are 'connected' through logic gates. The MSET model uses AND-gates and OR-gates and propagates the effect of event failure using Boolean algebra. To enable the fault tree analysis calculations, the basic events in the fault tree are populated with probability risk values derived by conversion of questionnaire data to numeric values. The basic events are treated as independent variables. This assumption affects the Boolean algebraic calculations used to calculate results. All the necessary calculations are built into the fault tree codes, but it is often useful to estimate the probabilities manually as a check on code functioning. The probability of failure of a given basic event is the probability that the basic event primary question fails to meet the performance metric for that question. The failure probability is related to how well the facility performs the task identified in that basic event over time (not just one performance or exercise). Fault tree calculations provide a failure probability for the top event in the fault tree. The basic fault tree calculations establish a baseline relative risk value for the system. This probability depicts relative risk, not absolute risk. Subsequent calculations are made to evaluate the change in relative risk that would occur if system performance is improved or degraded. During the development effort of MSET, the fault tree analysis program used was SAPHIRE. SAPHIRE is an acronym for 'Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations.' Version 1 of the SAPHIRE code was sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1987 as an innovative way to draw, edit, and analyze graphical fault trees primarily for safe operation of nuclear power reactors. When the fault tree calculations are performed, the fault tree analysis program will produce several reports that can be used to analyze the MPC&A system. SAPHIRE produces reports showing risk importance factors for all basic events in the operational MC&A system. The risk importance information is used to examine the potential impacts when performance of certain basic events increases or decreases. The initial results produced by the SAPHIRE program are considered relative risk values. None of the results can be interpreted as absolute risk values since the basic event probability values represent estimates of risk associated with the performance of MPC&A tasks throughout the material balance area (MBA). The RRR for a basic event represents the decrease in total system risk that would result from improvement of that one event to a perfect performance level. Improvement of the basic event with the greatest RRR value produces a greater decrease in total system risk than improvement of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk reduction are assigned performance improvement values, and new fault tree calculations show the improvement in total system risk. The operational impact or cost-effectiveness from implementing the performance improvements can then be evaluated. The improvements being evaluated can be system performance improvements, or they can be potential, or actual, upgrades to the system. The RIR for a basic event represents the increase in total system risk that would result from failure of that one event. Failure of the basic event with the greatest RIR value produces a greater increase in total system risk than failure of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk increase are assigned failure performance values, and new fault tree calculations show the increase in total system risk. This evaluation shows the importance of preventing performance degradation of the basic events. SAPHIRE identifies combinations of basic events where concurrent failure of the events results in failure of the top event.« less

Inferring duplications, losses, transfers and incomplete lineage sorting with nonbinary species trees.

PubMed

Stolzer, Maureen; Lai, Han; Xu, Minli; Sathaye, Deepa; Vernot, Benjamin; Durand, Dannie

2012-09-15

Gene duplication (D), transfer (T), loss (L) and incomplete lineage sorting (I) are crucial to the evolution of gene families and the emergence of novel functions. The history of these events can be inferred via comparison of gene and species trees, a process called reconciliation, yet current reconciliation algorithms model only a subset of these evolutionary processes. We present an algorithm to reconcile a binary gene tree with a nonbinary species tree under a DTLI parsimony criterion. This is the first reconciliation algorithm to capture all four evolutionary processes driving tree incongruence and the first to reconcile non-binary species trees with a transfer model. Our algorithm infers all optimal solutions and reports complete, temporally feasible event histories, giving the gene and species lineages in which each event occurred. It is fixed-parameter tractable, with polytime complexity when the maximum species outdegree is fixed. Application of our algorithms to prokaryotic and eukaryotic data show that use of an incomplete event model has substantial impact on the events inferred and resulting biological conclusions. Our algorithms have been implemented in Notung, a freely available phylogenetic reconciliation software package, available at http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~durand/Notung. mstolzer@andrew.cmu.edu.

The FTA Method And A Possibility Of Its Application In The Area Of Road Freight Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poliaková, Adela

2015-06-01

The Fault Tree process utilizes logic diagrams to portray and analyse potentially hazardous events. Three basic symbols (logic gates) are adequate for diagramming any fault tree. However, additional recently developed symbols can be used to reduce the time and effort required for analysis. A fault tree is a graphical representation of the relationship between certain specific events and the ultimate undesired event (2). This paper deals to method of Fault Tree Analysis basic description and provides a practical view on possibility of application by quality improvement in road freight transport company.

Species tree inference by minimizing deep coalescences.

PubMed

Than, Cuong; Nakhleh, Luay

2009-09-01

In a 1997 seminal paper, W. Maddison proposed minimizing deep coalescences, or MDC, as an optimization criterion for inferring the species tree from a set of incongruent gene trees, assuming the incongruence is exclusively due to lineage sorting. In a subsequent paper, Maddison and Knowles provided and implemented a search heuristic for optimizing the MDC criterion, given a set of gene trees. However, the heuristic is not guaranteed to compute optimal solutions, and its hill-climbing search makes it slow in practice. In this paper, we provide two exact solutions to the problem of inferring the species tree from a set of gene trees under the MDC criterion. In other words, our solutions are guaranteed to find the tree that minimizes the total number of deep coalescences from a set of gene trees. One solution is based on a novel integer linear programming (ILP) formulation, and another is based on a simple dynamic programming (DP) approach. Powerful ILP solvers, such as CPLEX, make the first solution appealing, particularly for very large-scale instances of the problem, whereas the DP-based solution eliminates dependence on proprietary tools, and its simplicity makes it easy to integrate with other genomic events that may cause gene tree incongruence. Using the exact solutions, we analyze a data set of 106 loci from eight yeast species, a data set of 268 loci from eight Apicomplexan species, and several simulated data sets. We show that the MDC criterion provides very accurate estimates of the species tree topologies, and that our solutions are very fast, thus allowing for the accurate analysis of genome-scale data sets. Further, the efficiency of the solutions allow for quick exploration of sub-optimal solutions, which is important for a parsimony-based criterion such as MDC, as we show. We show that searching for the species tree in the compatibility graph of the clusters induced by the gene trees may be sufficient in practice, a finding that helps ameliorate the computational requirements of optimization solutions. Further, we study the statistical consistency and convergence rate of the MDC criterion, as well as its optimality in inferring the species tree. Finally, we show how our solutions can be used to identify potential horizontal gene transfer events that may have caused some of the incongruence in the data, thus augmenting Maddison's original framework. We have implemented our solutions in the PhyloNet software package, which is freely available at: http://bioinfo.cs.rice.edu/phylonet.

Limited Growth Recovery after Drought-Induced Forest Dieback in Very Defoliated Trees of Two Pine Species

PubMed Central

Guada, Guillermo; Camarero, J. Julio; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Cerrillo, Rafael M. Navarro

2016-01-01

Mediterranean pine forests display high resilience after extreme climatic events such as severe droughts. However, recent dry spells causing growth decline and triggering forest dieback challenge the capacity of some forests to recover following major disturbances. To describe how resilient the responses of forests to drought can be, we quantified growth dynamics in plantations of two pine species (Scots pine, black pine) located in south-eastern Spain and showing drought-triggered dieback. Radial growth was characterized at inter- (tree-ring width) and intra-annual (xylogenesis) scales in three defoliation levels. It was assumed that the higher defoliation the more negative the impact of drought on tree growth. Tree-ring width chronologies were built and xylogenesis was characterized 3 years after the last severe drought occurred. Annual growth data and the number of tracheids produced in different stages of xylem formation were related to climate data at several time scales. Drought negatively impacted growth of the most defoliated trees in both pine species. In Scots pine, xylem formation started earlier in the non-defoliated than in the most defoliated trees. Defoliated trees presented the shortest duration of the radial-enlargement phase in both species. On average the most defoliated trees formed 60% of the number of mature tracheids formed by the non-defoliated trees in both species. Since radial enlargement is the xylogenesis phase most tightly related to final growth, this explains why the most defoliated trees grew the least due to their altered xylogenesis phases. Our findings indicate a very limited resilience capacity of drought-defoliated Scots and black pines. Moreover, droughts produce legacy effects on xylogenesis of highly defoliated trees which could not recover previous growth rates and are thus more prone to die. PMID:27066053

Early changes in physical tree characteristics during an oak decline event in the Ozark highlands

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich

2006-01-01

An oak decline event is severely affecting up to 120 000 ha in the Ozark National Forest of Arkansas. Results of early changes in physical tree characteristics during that event are presented. In the fall and winter of 1999 and 2000, we established research plots on a site that would become a center of severe oak decline. In August 2000, standing trees > 14 cm in...

A dynamic fault tree model of a propulsion system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Hong; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Meshkat, Leila

2006-01-01

We present a dynamic fault tree model of the benchmark propulsion system, and solve it using Galileo. Dynamic fault trees (DFT) extend traditional static fault trees with special gates to model spares and other sequence dependencies. Galileo solves DFT models using a judicious combination of automatically generated Markov and Binary Decision Diagram models. Galileo easily handles the complexities exhibited by the benchmark problem. In particular, Galileo is designed to model phased mission systems.

75 FR 66125 - Notice of Public Meeting and Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-27

...--The National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 23 day event. SUMMARY: The National Park Service is seeking public comments and suggestions on the planning of the 2010 National Christmas Tree... Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 23 day event, which opens on December 9, 2010, on the Ellipse...

Exchange of soil moisture between patches of wild-olive and pasture sustains evapotranspiration of a Mediterranean ecosystem in both wet and dry seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curreli, M.; Montaldo, N.; Oren, R.

2017-12-01

Partitioning evapotranspiration in water-limited environments, such as Mediterranean ecosystems, could give information on vegetation and hydraulic dynamics. Indeed, in such ecosystems, trees may survive prolonged droughts by uptake of water by dimorphic root system: deep roots and shallower lateral roots, extending beyond the crown into inter-trees grassy areas. The water exchange between under canopy areas and treeless patches plays a crucial role on sustaining tree and grass physiological performance during droughts. The study has been performed at the Orroli site, Sardinia (Italy). The landscape is covered by patchy vegetation: wild olives trees in clumps and herbaceous species, drying to bare soil in summer. The climate is characterized by long droughts from May to October and rain events concentrated in the autumn and winter, whit a mean yearly rain of about 700 mm. A 10 m micrometeorological tower equipped with eddy-covariance system has been used for measuring water and energy surface fluxes, as well as key state variables (e.g. temperature, radiations, humidity and wind velocity). Soil moisture was measured with five soil water reflectometers (two below the olive canopy and three in the pasture). To estimate plant water use in the context of soil water dynamic, 33 Granier-type thermal dissipation probes were installed 40 cm aboveground, in representative trees over the eddy covariance footprint. Early analyses show that wild olive continue to transpire even as the soil dries and the pasture desiccates. This reveled hydraulic redistribution system through the plant and the soil, and allows to quantify the reliance of the system on horizontally and vertically differentiated soil compartments. Results shows that during light hours, until transpiration decreases in midday, shallow roots uptake deplete the shallow water content. As transpiration decreases, hydraulically redistributed water provides for both transpiration of wild olives and recharge of shallow soil layers in the inter-tree areas. This consents trees to remain physiologically active during very dry conditions and represent a mechanism of facilitation of the coexistence of tree-grass system.

The influence of tree traits and storm event characteristics on stemflow production from isolated deciduous trees in an urban park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlyle-Moses, D. E.; Schooling, J. T.

2014-12-01

Urban tree canopy processes affect the volume and biogeochemistry of inputs to the hydrological cycle in cities. We studied stemflow from 37 isolated deciduous trees in an urban park in Kamloops, British Columbia which has a semi-arid climate dominated by small precipitation events. Precipitation and stemflow were measured on an event basis from June 12, 2012 to November 3, 2013. To clarify the effect of canopy traits on stemflow thresholds, rates, yields, percent, and funneling ratios, we analyzed branch angles, bark roughness, tree size, cover, leaf size, and branch and leader counts. High branch angles promoted stemflow in all trees, while bark roughness influenced stemflow differently for single- and multi-leader trees. The association between stemflow and numerous leaders deserves further study. Columnar-form trees often partitioned a large percentage of precipitation into stemflow, with event-scale values as high as 27.9 % recorded for an Armstrong Freeman Maple (Acer x freemanii 'Armstrong'). Under growing-season conditions funneling ratios as high as 196.9 were derived for an American Beech (Fagus grandifolia) individual. Among meteorological variables, rain depth was strongly correlated with stemflow yields; intra-storm break duration, rainfall intensity, rainfall inclination, wind speed, and vapour pressure deficit also played roles. Greater stemflow was associated with leafless canopies and with rain or mixed events versus snow. Results can inform climate-sensitive selection and siting of urban trees towards integrated rainwater management. For example, previous studies suggest that the reduction in storm-water generation by urban trees is accomplished through canopy interception loss alone. However, trees that partition large quantities of precipitation canopy-drainage as stemflow to the base of their trunks, where it has the potential to infiltrate into the soil media rather than fall on impervious surfaces as throughfall, may assist in reducing stormwater flow.

Ecosystem disturbances in Central European spruce forests: a multi-proxy integration of dendroecology and sedimentary records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clear, Jennifer; Chiverrell, Richard; Kunes, Petr; Svoboda, Miroslav; Boyle, John

2016-04-01

Disturbance dynamics in forest ecosystems shows signs of perturbation in the light of changing climate regimes with the frequency and intensity of events (e.g. pathogens in North America and Central Europe) amplified, becoming more frequent and severe. The montane Norway spruce (Picea abies) dominated forests of Central Europe are a niche habitat and environment; situated outside their natural boreal distribution (e.g. Fenno-Scandinavia). These communities are at or near their ecological limits and are vulnerable to both short term disturbances (e.g. fire, windstorm and pathogens) and longer-term environmental change (e.g. climate induced stress and changing disturbance patterns). Researches have linked negative impacts on spruce forest with both wind disturbance (wind-throw) and outbreaks of spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus), and there is growing evidence for co-association with wind damage enhancing pathogenic outbreaks. Examples include: in the Bohemian Forest (Czech Republic) the mid-1990s spruce bark beetle outbreak and the 2007 windstorm and subsequent bark beetle outbreak. In the High Tatra Mountains (Slovakia) there is a further co-association of forest disturbance with windstorms (2004 and 2014) and an ongoing bark beetle outbreak. The scale and severity of these recent outbreaks of spruce bark beetle are unprecedented in the historical forest records. Here, findings from ongoing research developing and integrating data from dendroecological, sedimentary palaeoecological and geochemical time series to develop a longer-term perspective on forest dynamics in these regions. Tree-ring series from plots or forest stands (>500) are used alongside lake (5) and forest hollow (3) sediments from the Czech and Slovak Republics to explore the local, regional and biogeographical scale of forest disturbances. Dendroecological data showing tree-ring gap recruitment and post-suppression growth release highlight frequent disturbance events focused on tree or forest stand spatial scales, but are patchy in terms of reoccurrence. However they highlight levels of disturbance in the late 19th Century. Sediment records from lakes and forest hollows record variable pollen influx (beetle host / non-host ratios) and a stratigraphy that includes mineral in-wash events. μXRF scanning of lakes in the region with varying catchments and catchment-to-lake area ratios show spikes in K, Zr, Ti concentrations reflecting frequent erosive episodes throughout the Holocene. Linking across the temporal scales inherent in dendroecological (0 to 250 years) and sedimentary (0 to 11,500 years) is enhancing our understanding of disturbance dynamics. The identified recent and ongoing forest disturbances coupled with well-evidenced events in the 19th century highlight the need for the longer sedimentary perspective to assess whether contemporary climate warming has and continues to stretch the resilience of these fragile ecosystems. Our data are informative to the ongoing land-management conflict between active forest management (harvesting valuable timber and salvage logging) and forest conservation agenda encouraging forest dynamics and disturbance recovery.

Frost hardening and dehardening potential in temperate trees from winter to budburst.

PubMed

Vitra, Amarante; Lenz, Armando; Vitasse, Yann

2017-10-01

We investigated how deciduous trees can adjust their freezing resistance in response to temperature during the progress of the ecodormancy phase, from midwinter to budburst. We regularly sampled twigs of four different temperate deciduous tree species from January to the leaf-out date. Using computer-controlled freezers and climate chambers, the freezing resistance of buds was measured directly after sampling and also after the application of artificial hardening and dehardening treatments, simulating cold and warm spells. The thermal time to budburst in forcing conditions (c. 20°C) was also quantified at each sampling as a proxy for dormancy depth. Earlier flushing species showed higher freezing resistance than late flushing species at either similar bud development stage or similar dormancy depth. Overall, freezing resistance and its hardening and dehardening potential dramatically decreased during the progress of ecodormancy and became almost nil during budburst. Our results suggest that extreme cold events in winter are not critical for trees, as freezing resistance can be largely enhanced during this period. By contrast, the timing of budburst is a critical component of tree fitness. Our results provide quantitative values of the freezing resistance dynamics during ecodormancy, particularly valuable in process-based species distribution models. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Changes in tree resistance, recovery and resilience across three successive extreme droughts in the northeast Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Serra-Maluquer, X; Mencuccini, M; Martínez-Vilalta, J

2018-05-01

Understanding which variables affect forest resilience to extreme drought is key to predict future dynamics under ongoing climate change. In this study, we analyzed how tree resistance, recovery and resilience to drought have changed along three consecutive droughts and how they were affected by species, tree size, plot basal area (as a proxy for competition) and climate. We focused on the three most abundant pine species in the northeast Iberian Peninsula: Pinus halepensis, P. nigra and P. sylvestris during the three most extreme droughts recorded in the period 1951-2010 (occurred in 1986, 1994, and 2005-2006). We cored trees from permanent sample plots and used dendrochronological techniques to estimate resistance (ability to maintain growth level during drought), recovery (growth increase after drought) and resilience (capacity to recover pre-drought growth levels) in terms of tree stem basal area increment. Mixed-effects models were used to determine which tree- and plot-level variables were the main determinants of resistance, recovery and resilience, and to test for differences among the studied droughts. Larger trees were significantly less resistant and resilient. Plot basal area effects were only observed for resilience, with a negative impact only during the last drought. Resistance, recovery and resilience differed across the studied drought events, so that the studied populations became less resistant, less resilient and recovered worse during the last two droughts. This pattern suggests an increased vulnerability to drought after successive drought episodes.

The effects of drought-induced mortality on the response of surviving trees in piñon-juniper woodlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C. W.; Pockman, W.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

lthough it is well-established that land cover change influences water and carbon cycles across different spatiotemporal scales, the impact of climate-driven mortality events on site energy and water balance and subsequently on vegetation dynamics is more variable among studies. In semi-arid ecosystems globally, mortality events following severe drought are increasingly common. We used long-term observations (i.e., from 2009 to present) in two piñon-juniper (i.e., Pinus edulis and Juniperus monosperma) woodlands located at central New Mexico USA to explore the consequence of mortality events in such water-stressed environments. We compared a pinon-juniper woodland site where girdling was used to mimic mortality of adult pinon (PJG) with a nearby untreated woodland site (PJC). Our primary goal is to disentangle the reduction in water loss via biological pathway (i.e., leaf and sapwood area) introduced by girdling manipulation from other effects contributing to the response of surviving trees such as modifications in surface reflectivity (i.e., albedo and emissivity) and surface roughness impacting the partitioning between components in both energy and water balance at canopy level. To achieve this goal, we directly measured sap flux, environmental factors and ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon, water and energy fluxes using eddy-covariance systems at both sites. We found that 1) for each component of the energy balance the difference between PJC and PJG was surprisingly negligible such that the canopy-level surface temperature (i.e., both radiometric and aerodynamic temperature) remains nearly identical for the two sites; 2) the surface reflectivity and roughness are mainly dominated by the soil surface especially when the foliage coverage in semi-arid regions is small; 3) the increase in soil evaporation after girdling manipulation outcompetes the surviving trees for the use of water in the soil. These results suggest that the so-called `water release hypothesis' may not occur in such water-stressed environments and the surviving trees may become less resilient to further drought conditions mainly due to the reduction in the soil water availability. Keywords: drought resilience, tree mortality, partitioning in energy and water balance, water release hypothesis

Impacts of a water stress followed by an early frost event on beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) susceptibility to Scolytine ambrosia beetles - Research strategy and first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Spina, Sylvie; de Cannière, Charles; Molenberg, Jean-Marc; Vincke, Caroline; Deman, Déborah; Grégoire, Jean-Claude

2010-05-01

Climate change tends to induce more frequent abiotic and biotic extreme events, having large impacts on tree vitality. Weakened trees are then more susceptible to secondary insect outbreaks, as it happened in Belgium in the early 2000s: after an early frost event, secondary Scolytine ambrosia beetles attacks were observed on beech trees. In this study, we test if a combination of stress, i.e. a soil water deficit preceding an early frost, could render trees more attractive to beetles. An experimental study was set in autumn 2008. Two parcels of a beech forest were covered with plastic tents to induce a water stress by rain interception. The parcels were surrounded by 2-meters depth trenches to avoid water supply by streaming. Soil water content and different indicators of tree water use (sap flow, predawn leaf water potential, tree radial growth) were followed. In autumn 2010, artificial frost injuries will be inflicted to trees using dry ice. Trees attractivity for Scolytine insects, and the success of insect colonization will then be studied. The poster will focus on experiment setting and first results (impacts of soil water deficit on trees).

Air blasts generated by rockfall impacts: Analysis of the 1996 Happy Isles event in Yosemite National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, M.M.; Savage, W.Z.; Wieczorek, G.F.

1999-01-01

The July 10, 1996, Happy Isles rockfall in Yosemite National Park, California, released 23,000 to 38,000 m3 of granite in four separate events. The impacts of the first two events which involved a 550-m free fall, generated seismic waves and atmospheric pressure waves (air blasts). We focus on the dynamic behavior of the second air blast that downed over 1000 trees, destroyed a bridge, demolished a snack bar, and caused one fatality and several injuries. Calculated velocities for the air blast from a two-phase, finite difference model are compared to velocities estimated from tree damage. From tornadic studies of tree damage, the air blast is estimated to have traveled <108-120 m/s within 50 m from the impact and decreased to <10-20 m/s within 500 m from the impact. The numerical model simulates the two-dimensional propagation of an air blast through a dusty atmosphere with initial conditions defined by the impact velocity and pressure. The impact velocity (105-107 m/s) is estimated from the Colorado Rockfall Simulation Program that simulates rockfall trajectories. The impact pressure (0.5 MPa) is constrained by the kinetic energy of the impact (1010-1012 J) estimated from the seismic energy generated by the impact. Results from the air blast simulations indicate that the second Happy Isles air blast (weak shock wave) traveled with an initial velocity above the local sound speed. The size and location of the first impact are thought to have injected <50 wt % dust into the atmosphere. This amount of dust lowered the local atmospheric sound speed to ???220 m/s. The discrepancy between calculated velocity data and field estimated velocity data (???220 m/s versus ???110 m/s) is attributed to energy dissipated by the downing of trees and additional entrainment of debris into the atmosphere not included in the calculations. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Air blasts generated by rockfall impacts: Analysis of the 1996 Happy Isles event in Yosemite National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrissey, M. M.; Savage, W. Z.; Wieczorek, G. F.

1999-10-01

The July 10, 1996, Happy Isles rockfall in Yosemite National Park, California, released 23,000 to 38,000 m3 of granite in four separate events. The impacts of the first two events which involved a 550-m free fall, generated seismic waves and atmospheric pressure waves (air blasts). We focus on the dynamic behavior of the second air blast that downed over 1000 trees, destroyed a bridge, demolished a snack bar, and caused one fatality and several injuries. Calculated velocities for the air blast from a two-phase, finite difference model are compared to velocities estimated from tree damage. From tornadic studies of tree damage, the air blast is estimated to have traveled <108-120 m/s within 50 m from the impact and decreased to <10-20 m/s within 500 m from the impact. The numerical model simulates the two-dimensional propagation of an air blast through a dusty atmosphere with initial conditions defined by the impact velocity and pressure. The impact velocity (105-107 m/s) is estimated from the Colorado Rockfall Simulation Program that simulates rockfall trajectories. The impact pressure (0.5 MPa) is constrained by the kinetic energy of the impact (1010-1012 J) estimated from the seismic energy generated by the impact. Results from the air blast simulations indicate that the second Happy Isles air blast (weak shock wave) traveled with an initial velocity above the local sound speed. The size and location of the first impact are thought to have injected <50 wt% dust into the atmosphere. This amount of dust lowered the local atmospheric sound speed to ˜220 m/s. The discrepancy between calculated velocity data and field estimated velocity data (˜220 m/s versus ˜110 m/s) is attributed to energy dissipated by the downing of trees and additional entrainment of debris into the atmosphere not included in the calculations.

Longitudinal distribution and parameters of large wood in a Mediterranean ephemeral stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galia, T.; Škarpich, V.; Tichavský, R.; Vardakas, L.; Šilhán, K.

2018-06-01

Although large wood (LW) has been intensively studied in forested basins of humid temperate climates, data on LW patterns in different fluvial environments are rather scarce. Therefore, we investigated the dimensions, characteristics, longitudinal distribution, and dynamics of LW along a 4.05-km-long reach of an ephemeral channel typical of European Mediterranean mountainous landscape (Sfakiano Gorge, Crete, Greece). We analysed a total of 795 LW pieces, and the mean observed abundance of LW was generally lower (14.3 m3/ha of active valley floor or 19.6 LW pieces/100 m of stream length) than is usually documented for more humid environments. The number of LW pieces was primarily controlled by trees growing on the valley floor. These living trees acted as important LW supply agents (by tree throws or the supply of individual branches with sufficient LW dimensions) and flow obstructions during large flood events, causing storage of transported LW pieces in jams. However, the downstream transport of LW is probably episodic, and large jams are likely formed only during major floods; after >15 years, we still observed significant imprints of the last major flood event on the present distribution of LW. The geomorphic function of LW in the studied stream can only be perceived to be a spatially limited stabilising element for sediments, which was documented by a few accumulations of coarse clastic material by LW steps and jams.

Solute load concentrations in some streams in the Upper Osun and Owena drainage basins, central western Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeje, L. K.; Ogunkoya, O. O.; Oluwatimilehin, J. M.

1999-12-01

The solute load dynamics of 12 third-order streams in central western Nigeria are presented, during storm and non-storm runoff events. The relevance of the Walling and Foster model for explaining storm period solute load dynamics in the humid tropical environment was assessed and it was found that this model was generally applicable to the study area. Exceptions appear to be streams draining settlements and/or farms where fertilizers are applied heavily. The solute load ranged from 5 mg l -1 to 580 mg l -1 with streams draining basins with tree-crop plantations ( Theobroma cacao, Cola sp.) as the dominant land cover having the highest solute load.

Patterns of mortality in a montane mixed-conifer forest in San Diego County, California.

PubMed

Freeman, Mary Pyott; Stow, Douglas A; An, Li

2017-10-01

We examine spatial patterns of conifer tree mortality and their changes over time for the montane mixed-conifer forests of San Diego County. These forest areas have recently experienced extensive tree mortality due to multiple factors. A spatial contextual image processing approach was utilized with high spatial resolution digital airborne imagery to map dead trees for the years 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2005 for three study areas: Palomar, Volcan, and Laguna mountains. Plot-based fieldwork was conducted to further assess mortality patterns. Mean mortality remained static from 1997 to 2002 (4, 2.2, and 4.2 trees/ha for Palomar, Volcan, and Laguna) and then increased by 2005 to 10.3, 9.7, and 5.2 trees/ha, respectively. The increase in mortality between 2002 and 2005 represents the temporal pattern of a discrete disturbance event, attributable to the 2002-2003 drought. Dead trees are significantly clustered for all dates, based on spatial cluster analysis, indicating that they form distinct groups, as opposed to spatially random single dead trees. Other tests indicate no directional shift or spread of mortality over time, but rather an increase in density. While general temporal and spatial mortality processes are uniform across all study areas, the plot-based species and quantity distribution of mortality, and diameter distributions of dead vs. living trees, vary by study area. The results of this study improve our understanding of stand- to landscape-level forest structure and dynamics, particularly by examining them from the multiple perspectives of field and remotely sensed data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Effect of biotic and abiotic factors on inter- and intra-event variability in stemflow rates in oak and pine stands in a Mediterranean mountain area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayuela, C.; Llorens, P.; Sánchez-Costa, E.; Levia, D. F.; Latron, J.

2018-05-01

Stemflow, despite being a small proportion of gross rainfall, is an important and understudied flux of water in forested areas. Recent studies have highlighted its complexity and relative importance for understanding soil and groundwater recharge. Stemflow dynamics offer an insight into how rain water is stored and released from the stems of trees to the soil. Past attempts have been made to understand the variability of stemflow under different types of vegetation, but rather few studies have focused on the combined influence of biotic and abiotic factors on inter and intra-storm stemflow variability, and none in Mediterranean climates. This study presents stemflow data collected at high temporal resolution for two species with contrasting canopies and bark characteristics: Quercus pubescens Willd. (downy oak) and Pinus sylvestris L. (Scots pine) in the Vallcebre research catchments (NE of Spain, 42° 12‧N, 1° 49‧E). The main objective was to understand how the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors affected stemflow dynamics. Mean stemflow production was low for both species (∼1% of incident rainfall) and increased with rainfall amount. However, the magnitude of the response depended on the combination of multiple biotic and abiotic factors. Both species produced similar stemflow volumes and the largest differences were found among trees of the same species. The combined analysis of biotic and abiotic factors showed that funneling ratios and stemflow dynamics were highly influenced by the interaction of rainfall intensity and tree size.

Annual and spatial variation in shoot demography associated with masting in Betula grossa: comparison between mature trees and saplings

PubMed Central

Ishihara, Masae Iwamoto; Kikuzawa, Kihachiro

2009-01-01

Backgrounds and Aims Shoot demography affects the growth of the tree crown and the number of leaves on a tree. Masting may cause inter-annual and spatial variation in shoot demography of mature trees, which may in turn affect the resource budget of the tree. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of masting on the temporal and spatial variations in shoot demography of mature Betula grossa. Methods The shoot demography was analysed in the upper and lower parts of the tree crown in mature trees and saplings over 7 years. Mature trees and saplings were compared to differentiate the effect of masting from the effect of exogenous environment on shoot demography. The fate of different shoot types (reproductive, vegetative, short, long), shoot length and leaf area were investigated by monitoring and by retrospective survey using morphological markers on branches. The effects of year and branch position on demographic parameters were evaluated. Key Results Shoot increase rate, production of long shoots, bud mortality, length of long shoots and leaf area of a branch fluctuated periodically from year to year in mature trees over 7 years, in which two masting events occurred. Branches within a crown showed synchronized annual variation, and the extent of fluctuation was larger in the upper branches than the lower branches. Vegetative shoots varied in their bud differentiation each year and contributed to the dynamic shoot demography as much as did reproductive shoots, suggesting physiological integration in shoot demography through hormonal regulation and resource allocation. Conclusions Masting caused periodic annual variation in shoot demography of the mature trees and the effect was spatially variable within a tree crown. Since masting is a common phenomenon among tree species, annual variation in shoot demography and leaf area should be incorporated into resource allocation models of mature masting trees. PMID:19734164

Metapopulation dynamics and future persistence of epiphytic cyanolichens in a European boreal forest ecosystem

PubMed Central

Fedrowitz, Katja; Kuusinen, Mikko; Snäll, Tord

2012-01-01

1. One approach to biodiversity conservation is to set aside small woodland key habitats (WKHs) in intensively managed landscapes. The aim is to support species, such as epiphytes, which often depend on old trees and are negatively affected by intensive forestry. However, it is not known whether the number of host trees within these areas can sustain species in the long term. 2. We studied metapopulation dynamics and assessed the future persistence of epiphytes assuming host tree numbers similar to those observed in large north European WKHs. The study species were seven cyanolichens confined to Populus tremula in the boreal study area. Colonizations and extinctions were recorded in 2008 on trees that had been surveyed 13 years earlier. We applied generalized (non)linear models to test the importance of environmental conditions, facilitation and spatial connectivity on the metapopulation dynamics. We also simulated the effects of tree numbers and tree fall rates on future species persistence. 3. Metapopulation dynamics were explained by tree quality, size or tree fall. In one species, colonizations increased with increasing connectivity, and in a second species it increased if other lichens sharing the photobiont with the focal species were present, suggesting facilitation. Both stochastic extinctions from standing trees and deterministic extinctions caused by tree fall should be accounted for in projecting epiphyte metapopulation dynamics. 4. One to three infrequent, sexually dispersed study species face a significant extinction risk within 50 years, especially in areas with low tree numbers. 5. Synthesis and applications. During the coming decades, infrequent, sexually dispersed, epiphytic lichens are likely to be lost from small woodland habitat set asides in intensively managed landscapes. Local extinction will be a consequence of low colonization rates and tree fall. Low colonization rates can be prevented by retaining large trees on which lichen species colonization rates are the highest and by assuring a high density of occupied trees. The negative effect of tree fall should be compensated for by assuring continuous availability of old trees. This can be achieved by decreasing the populations of large browsers, or by retaining trees with high conservation value during management operations. PMID:22745512

Ecosystem Disturbances in Central European Spruce Forests: a Multi-proxy Integration of Dendroecology and Sedimentary Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clear, J.; Chiverrell, R. C.; Kunes, P.; Boyle, J.; Kuosmanen, N.; Carter, V.

2016-12-01

The montane Norway spruce (Picea abies) dominated forests of Central Europe are a niche environment; situated outside their natural boreal distribution they are vulnerable to both short term disturbances (e.g. floods, avalanches, fire, windstorm and pathogens) and longer-term environmental change (e.g. climate induced stress, snow regimes). Holocene sediment records from lakes in the High Tatra (Slovakia) and Bohemian (Czech) Mountains show repeated disturbances of the pristine Picea abies-dominated forests as sharp well defined minerogenic in-wash horizons that punctuate the accumulation of organic gyttja. These event horizons span a process continuum from lakes with restricted catchments and limited inflow (e.g. Prazilske Lake, Czech) to more catchment-process dominated lakes with large catchments (e.g. Popradske Lake, Slovakia). The events include complex responses to a global climatic downturn at 8.2ka, other cooler episodes 3.5, 1.6 and 0.5 ka, and to recent discrete wind-storms and pathogen outbreaks. We develop a typology for disturbance events using sediment geochemistry, particle size, mineral magnetism, charcoal and palaeoecology to assess likely drivers of disturbance. For the recent past integrating data from dendroecology and sediments is used to calibrate our longer-term perspective on forest dynamics. Tree-ring series from plots or forest stands are used alongside lake and forest hollow sediments to explore the local, regional and biogeographical scale of forest disturbances. Dendroecological data showing tree-ring gap recruitment and post-suppression growth release highlight frequent disturbance events focused on tree or forest stand spatial scales, but are patchy in terms of their reoccurrence. However they highlight levels of disturbance in the late 19th Century and parallel lake and forest hollow sediments record variable pollen influx (beetle host / non-host ratios) and stratigraphies that include mineral in-wash events. The identified recent and ongoing forest disturbances coupled with well-evidenced events in the 19th century highlight the need for the longer sedimentary perspective to assess whether contemporary climate warming has and continues to stretch the resilience of these fragile ecosystems.

Carbon and Nitrogen dynamics in deciduous and broad leaf trees under drought stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph, Jobin; Schaub, Marcus; Arend, Matthias; Saurer, Matthias; siegwolf, Rolf; Weiler, Markus; Gessler, Arthur

2017-04-01

Climate change is projected to lead to an increased frequency and duration of severe drought events in future. Already within the last twenty years, however, drought stress related forest mortality has been increasing across the globe. Tree and forest die off events have multiple adverse effects on ecosystem functioning and might convert previous carbon sinks to act as carbon sources instead and can thus intensify the effect of climate change and global warming. Current predictions of forest's functioning under drought and thus forest mortality under future climatic conditions are constrained by a still incomplete picture of the trees' physiological reactions that allows some trees to survive drought periods while others succumb. Concerning the effects of drought on the carbon balance and on tree hydraulics our picture is getting more complete, but still interactions between abiotic factors and pest and diseases as well as the interaction between carbon and nutrient balances as factors affecting drought induced mortality are not well understood. Reduced carbon allocation from shoots to roots might cause a lack of energy for root nutrient uptake and to a shortage of carbon skeletons for nitrogen assimilation and thus to an impaired nutrient status of trees. To tackle these points, we have performed a drought stress experiment with six different plant species, 3 broad leaf (maple, beech and oak) and 3 deciduous (pine, fir and spruce). Potted two-year-old seedlings were kept inside a greenhouse for 5 months and 3 levels of drought stress (no stress (control), intermediate and intensive drought stress) were applied by controlling water supply. Gas exchange measurements were performed periodically to monitor photosynthesis, transpiration, stomatal conductance. At the pinnacle of drought stress, we applied isotopic pulse labelling: On the one hand we exposed trees to 13CO2 to investigate on carbon dynamics and the allocation of new assimilates within the plant. Moreover, we labelled the soil with 15N nitrate by injecting nitrate solution into the soil without strongly changing the water content for investigating nitrogen uptake and distribution along different compartments of the plant soil continuum. We observed a distinct difference in the carbon and nitrogen dynamics and allocation pattern between broad leaf and conifer seedlings. Broad leaf species showed a lower reduction of CO2 assimilation under drought and still allocated significant amounts of the new assimilates to the roots. Especially in maple and oak the belowground transfer of assimilates was kept at high levels even under severe drought stress, while there was a reduction in assimilation transport in beech. Instead, only small amounts of 13C labelled new assimilates arrived in the roots of conifers in the drought treatments. In the deciduous species 15N taken up the roots was more intensively allocated to aboveground tissues compared to conifers under control conditions, which retained the largest amounts within the fine roots. 15N uptake was reduced in the drought treatments in all species assessed. There was, however, no clear relation of this reduction to changes in 13C allocation to the roots. We thus cannot conclude that the reduction of nitrogen uptake is due to reduced transport of new assimilates belowground. We thus need to assume that carbon storage is sufficient to provide energy and carbon for nitrogen uptake and assimilation at least over the short-term. During longer drought periods, however, depletion of carbon stores might adversely affect the nutrient uptake and balance of trees.

Integration of climatic water deficit and fine-scale physiography in process-based modeling of forest landscape resilience to large-scale tree mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Weisberg, P.; Dilts, T.

2016-12-01

Climate warming can lead to large-scale drought-induced tree mortality events and greatly affect forest landscape resilience. Climatic water deficit (CWD) and its physiographic variations provide a key mechanism in driving landscape dynamics in response to climate change. Although CWD has been successfully applied in niche-based species distribution models, its application in process-based forest landscape models is still scarce. Here we present a framework incorporating fine-scale influence of terrain on ecohydrology in modeling forest landscape dynamics. We integrated CWD with a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate how tree species distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios across an elevation-aspect gradient in a semi-arid montane landscape of northeastern Nevada, USA. Our simulations indicated that drought-intolerant tree species such as quaking aspen could experience greatly reduced distributions in the more arid portions of their existing ranges due to water stress limitations under future climate warming scenarios. However, even at the most xeric portions of its range, aspen is likely to persist in certain environmental settings due to unique and often fine-scale combinations of resource availability, species interactions and disturbance regime. The modeling approach presented here allowed identification of these refugia. In addition, this approach helped quantify how the direction and magnitude of fire influences on species distribution would vary across topoclimatic gradients, as well as furthers our understanding on the role of environmental conditions, fire, and inter-specific competition in shaping potential responses of landscape resilience to climate change.

Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis – The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A.; Longares, Luis A.; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T.

2016-01-01

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees to adverse environmental conditions. The demonstrated relationship of MR formation to ECE across this dendrochronological network in the Mediterranean basin shows the potential of MR analysis to reconstruct the history of past climatic extremes and to predict future forest dynamics in a changing climate. PMID:27303421

Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis - The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A; Longares, Luis A; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T

2016-01-01

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees to adverse environmental conditions. The demonstrated relationship of MR formation to ECE across this dendrochronological network in the Mediterranean basin shows the potential of MR analysis to reconstruct the history of past climatic extremes and to predict future forest dynamics in a changing climate.

MIRAP, microcomputer reliability analysis program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jehee, J.N.T.

1989-01-01

A program for a microcomputer is outlined that can determine minimal cut sets from a specified fault tree logic. The speed and memory limitations of the microcomputers on which the program is implemented (Atari ST and IBM) are addressed by reducing the fault tree's size and by storing the cut set data on disk. Extensive well proven fault tree restructuring techniques, such as the identification of sibling events and of independent gate events, reduces the fault tree's size but does not alter its logic. New methods are used for the Boolean reduction of the fault tree logic. Special criteria formore » combining events in the 'AND' and 'OR' logic avoid the creation of many subsuming cut sets which all would cancel out due to existing cut sets. Figures and tables illustrates these methods. 4 refs., 5 tabs.« less

Missing rings in Pinus halepensis – the missing link to relate the tree-ring record to extreme climatic events

Treesearch

Klemen Novak; Martin de Luis; Miguel A. Saz; Luis A. Longares; Roberto Serrano-Notivoli; Josep Raventos; Katarina Cufar; Jozica Gricar; Alfredo Di Filippo; Gianluca Piovesan; Cyrille B.K. Rathgeber; Andreas Papadopoulos; Kevin T. Smith

2016-01-01

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of...

Evidential Networks for Fault Tree Analysis with Imprecise Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianping; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Liu, Yu; Li, Yan-Feng

2012-06-01

Fault tree analysis (FTA), as one of the powerful tools in reliability engineering, has been widely used to enhance system quality attributes. In most fault tree analyses, precise values are adopted to represent the probabilities of occurrence of those events. Due to the lack of sufficient data or imprecision of existing data at the early stage of product design, it is often difficult to accurately estimate the failure rates of individual events or the probabilities of occurrence of the events. Therefore, such imprecision and uncertainty need to be taken into account in reliability analysis. In this paper, the evidential networks (EN) are employed to quantify and propagate the aforementioned uncertainty and imprecision in fault tree analysis. The detailed conversion processes of some logic gates to EN are described in fault tree (FT). The figures of the logic gates and the converted equivalent EN, together with the associated truth tables and the conditional belief mass tables, are also presented in this work. The new epistemic importance is proposed to describe the effect of ignorance degree of event. The fault tree of an aircraft engine damaged by oil filter plugs is presented to demonstrate the proposed method.

Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor

2018-06-01

The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in climate-growth research to better understand factors controlling tree growth.

Short-term dynamics of second-growth mixed mesophytic forest strata in West Virginia

Treesearch

Cynthia C. Huebner; Steven L. Stephenson; Harold S. Adams; Gary W. Miller

2007-01-01

The short-term dynamics of mixed mesophytic forest strata in West Virginia were examined using similarity analysis and linear correlation of shared ordination space. The overstory tree, understory tree, shrub/vine, and herb strata were stable over a six year interval, whereas the tree seedling and sapling strata were unstable. All strata but the shrub/vine and tree...

The Dynamics of Germinal Centre Selection as Measured by Graph-Theoretical Analysis of Mutational Lineage Trees

PubMed Central

Dunn-Walters, Deborah K.; Belelovsky, Alex; Edelman, Hanna; Banerjee, Monica; Mehr, Ramit

2002-01-01

We have developed a rigorous graph-theoretical algorithm for quantifying the shape properties of mutational lineage trees. We show that information about the dynamics of hypermutation and antigen-driven clonal selection during the humoral immune response is contained in the shape of mutational lineage trees deduced from the responding clones. Age and tissue related differences in the selection process can be studied using this method. Thus, tree shape analysis can be used as a means of elucidating humoral immune response dynamics in various situations. PMID:15144020

Simple street tree sampling

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Jeffrey T. Walton; James Baldwin; Jerry Bond

2015-01-01

Information on street trees is critical for management of this important resource. Sampling of street tree populations provides an efficient means to obtain street tree population information. Long-term repeat measures of street tree samples supply additional information on street tree changes and can be used to report damages from catastrophic events. Analyses of...

Event Classification and Identification Based on the Characteristic Ellipsoid of Phasor Measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Jian; Diao, Ruisheng; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-09-23

In this paper, a method to classify and identify power system events based on the characteristic ellipsoid of phasor measurement is presented. The decision tree technique is used to perform the event classification and identification. Event types, event locations and clearance times are identified by decision trees based on the indices of the characteristic ellipsoid. A sufficiently large number of transient events were simulated on the New England 10-machine 39-bus system based on different system configurations. Transient simulations taking into account different event types, clearance times and various locations are conducted to simulate phasor measurement. Bus voltage magnitudes and recordedmore » reactive and active power flows are used to build the characteristic ellipsoid. The volume, eccentricity, center and projection of the longest axis in the parameter space coordinates of the characteristic ellipsoids are used to classify and identify events. Results demonstrate that the characteristic ellipsoid and the decision tree are capable to detect the event type, location, and clearance time with very high accuracy.« less

Forest - water dynamics in a Mediterranean mountain environment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliades, Marinos; Bruggeman, Adriana; Lange, Manfred; Camera, Corrado; Christou, Andreas

2015-04-01

In semi-arid Mediterranean mountain environments, the soil layer is very shallow or even absent due to the steep slopes. Soil moisture in these environments is limited, but still vegetation thrives. There is limited knowledge about where the vegetation extracts the water from, how much water it uses, and how it interacts with other processes in the hydrological cycle. The main objective of this study is to quantify the water balance components of a Pinus brutia forest at tree level, by measuring the tree transpiration and the redistribution of the water from trees to the soil and the bedrock fractures. The study area is located on a forested hill slope on the outside edge of Peristerona watershed in Cyprus. The site was mapped with the use of a total station and a differentially-corrected GPS, in order to create a high resolution DEM and soil depth map of the area. Soil depth was measured at a 1-m grid around the trees. Biometric measurements were taken from a total of 45 trees. Four trees were selected for monitoring. Six sap flow sensors are installed in the selected trees for measuring transpiration and reverse flows. Two trees have two sensors each to assess the variability. Four volumetric soil moisture sensors are installed around each tree at distances 1 m and 2 m away from the tree trunk. An additional fifth soil moisture sensor is installed in soil depths exceeding 20-cm depth. Four throughfall rain gauges were installed randomly around each tree to compute interception losses. Stemflow is measured by connecting an opened surface plastic tube collar at 1.6 m height around each tree trunk. The trunk surface gaps were filled with silicon glue in order to avoid any stemflow losses. The plastic collar is connected to a sealed surface rain gauge. A weather station monitors all meteorological variables on an hourly basis. Results showed a maximum sap flow volume of 77.9 L/d, from November to January. The sensors also measured a maximum negative flow of 7.9 L/d, indicating reverse flow. Soil moisture ranged between 10 to 37 % at all sensors. Soil moisture contents showed an increase over 100% after rainfall events, but decreased quickly. Also individual sensor peak values were recorded when rainfall was not occurring, indicating soil moisture increase as a result of reverse flow. Interception losses revealed values, ranging from 10% to 50 % of the total rainfall. Stem flow was recorded after intense rain fall events. To our knowledge, this is the first water use quantification study for Pinus brutia trees. The negative sap flow implies that these trees have the ability to harvest water from the air moisture and redistribute it in the ground. Perhaps part of the intercepted water is captured by the tree and thus contributing to the negative sap flow. All the variables will be monitored for two more years to quantify the role of the trees in the water balance of the area.

Altered dynamics of broad-leaved tree species in a Chinese subtropical montane mixed forest: the role of an anomalous extreme 2008 ice storm episode.

PubMed

Ge, Jielin; Xiong, Gaoming; Wang, Zhixian; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Changming; Shen, Guozhen; Xu, Wenting; Xie, Zongqiang

2015-04-01

Extreme climatic events can trigger gradual or abrupt shifts in forest ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation species. However, the impacts of these events on foundation species' demography and forest dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we quantified dynamics for both evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved species groups, utilizing a monitoring permanent plot in a subtropical montane mixed forest in central China from 2001 to 2010 with particular relevance to the anomalous 2008 ice storm episode. We found that both species groups showed limited floristic alterations over the study period. For each species group, size distribution of dead individuals approximated a roughly irregular and flat shape prior to the ice storm and resembled an inverse J-shaped distribution after the ice storm. Furthermore, patterns of mortality and recruitment displayed disequilibrium behaviors with mortality exceeding recruitment for both species groups following the ice storm. Deciduous broad-leaved species group accelerated overall diameter growth, but the ice storm reduced evergreen small-sized diameter growth. We concluded that evergreen broad-leaved species were more susceptible to ice storms than deciduous broad-leaved species, and ice storm events, which may become more frequent with climate change, might potentially threaten the perpetuity of evergreen-dominated broad-leaved forests in this subtropical region in the long term. These results underscore the importance of long-term monitoring that is indispensible to elucidate causal links between forest dynamics and climatic perturbations.

Altered dynamics of broad-leaved tree species in a Chinese subtropical montane mixed forest: the role of an anomalous extreme 2008 ice storm episode

PubMed Central

Ge, Jielin; Xiong, Gaoming; Wang, Zhixian; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Changming; Shen, Guozhen; Xu, Wenting; Xie, Zongqiang

2015-01-01

Extreme climatic events can trigger gradual or abrupt shifts in forest ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation species. However, the impacts of these events on foundation species' demography and forest dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we quantified dynamics for both evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved species groups, utilizing a monitoring permanent plot in a subtropical montane mixed forest in central China from 2001 to 2010 with particular relevance to the anomalous 2008 ice storm episode. We found that both species groups showed limited floristic alterations over the study period. For each species group, size distribution of dead individuals approximated a roughly irregular and flat shape prior to the ice storm and resembled an inverse J-shaped distribution after the ice storm. Furthermore, patterns of mortality and recruitment displayed disequilibrium behaviors with mortality exceeding recruitment for both species groups following the ice storm. Deciduous broad-leaved species group accelerated overall diameter growth, but the ice storm reduced evergreen small-sized diameter growth. We concluded that evergreen broad-leaved species were more susceptible to ice storms than deciduous broad-leaved species, and ice storm events, which may become more frequent with climate change, might potentially threaten the perpetuity of evergreen-dominated broad-leaved forests in this subtropical region in the long term. These results underscore the importance of long-term monitoring that is indispensible to elucidate causal links between forest dynamics and climatic perturbations. PMID:25897387

Raman Spectroscopic Online Investigation of Respiratory Quotients in Pinus Sylvestris and Picea Abies during Drought and Shading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanf, S.; Fischer, S.; Hartmann, H.; Trumbore, S.; Popp, J.; Frosch, T.

2014-12-01

Drought and heat waves have been linked to forest mortality event across the globe. The underlying physiological processes are still not elucidated but both tree carbon and water relations have been identified as the driving forces. While studies on tree hydraulics are straightforward, studies on the tree carbon balance are not. For example, the use of different carbon compounds for maintenance respiration during drought cannot be assessed with measurements of carbon pools but requires real-time analyses of respiration stoichiometry. However, so far there were no technical solutions for such applications. Here we introduce cavity-enhanced Raman spectrometry (CERS) for simultaneous real-time monitoring of O2 and CO2 and rapid and continuous quantification of dark respiration rates and the respiratory quotient (RQ), i.e. the ratio of CO2 produced over O2 consumed during respiration. This ratio indicates the proportions of different substrates (carbohydrates [COH], lipids, proteins) used during respiration and allows fundamental insights into tree physiology. CERS combines high temporal resolution with a high dynamic concentration range for all important gases, ranging from few ppm to 100 vol. % with a single measurement every few seconds. The respiration analysis of tree branches was performed in a closed chamber for two species of different drought tolerance, Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies. We applied not only drought but also a shading treatment because both cause reductions in carbon assimilation rates but have different effects on tree hydraulics. Declines in RQ during shading in both species indicate a switch from pure COH metabolism to a mixture of COH, lipids and proteins. During drought such declines occurred only in the drought-tolerant pine but not in spruce and the underlying more dynamic carbon use strategy in pine may provide a physiological basis for its drought tolerance, more detailed investigation still pending. Our study highlights the suitability of CERS for applications in plant ecophysiology. This technology can contribute to significant advances in research on the causes and mechanisms of tree and forest mortality.

Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, G.T.; Fagre, D.B.; Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.

2004-01-01

Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ???70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Crown dynamics and wood production of Douglas-fir trees in an old-growth forest

Treesearch

H. Roaki Ishii; Stephen C. Sillett; Allyson L. Carroll

2017-01-01

Large trees are the most prominent structural features of old-growth forests, which are considered to be globally important carbon sinks. Because of their large size, estimates of biomass and growth of large trees are often based on ground-level measurements (e.g., diameter at breast height, DBH) and little is known about growth dynamics within the crown. As trees...

The dynamic forces and moments required in handling tree-length logs.

Treesearch

John A. Sturos

1971-01-01

Realistic dynamic loading requirements for tree- or log-harvesting machines were determined. The study showed that dynamic forces and moments four times as great as those required statically can occur in the field.

Simulation-Based Evaluation of Hybridization Network Reconstruction Methods in the Presence of Incomplete Lineage Sorting

PubMed Central

Kamneva, Olga K; Rosenberg, Noah A

2017-01-01

Hybridization events generate reticulate species relationships, giving rise to species networks rather than species trees. We report a comparative study of consensus, maximum parsimony, and maximum likelihood methods of species network reconstruction using gene trees simulated assuming a known species history. We evaluate the role of the divergence time between species involved in a hybridization event, the relative contributions of the hybridizing species, and the error in gene tree estimation. When gene tree discordance is mostly due to hybridization and not due to incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), most of the methods can detect even highly skewed hybridization events between highly divergent species. For recent divergences between hybridizing species, when the influence of ILS is sufficiently high, likelihood methods outperform parsimony and consensus methods, which erroneously identify extra hybridizations. The more sophisticated likelihood methods, however, are affected by gene tree errors to a greater extent than are consensus and parsimony. PMID:28469378

Efficient Exploration of the Space of Reconciled Gene Trees

PubMed Central

Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Rosikiewicz, Wojciech; Boussau, Bastien; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent

2013-01-01

Gene trees record the combination of gene-level events, such as duplication, transfer and loss (DTL), and species-level events, such as speciation and extinction. Gene tree–species tree reconciliation methods model these processes by drawing gene trees into the species tree using a series of gene and species-level events. The reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alone almost always involves choosing between statistically equivalent or weakly distinguishable relationships that could be much better resolved based on a putative species tree. To exploit this potential for accurate reconstruction of gene trees, the space of reconciled gene trees must be explored according to a joint model of sequence evolution and gene tree–species tree reconciliation. Here we present amalgamated likelihood estimation (ALE), a probabilistic approach to exhaustively explore all reconciled gene trees that can be amalgamated as a combination of clades observed in a sample of gene trees. We implement the ALE approach in the context of a reconciliation model (Szöllősi et al. 2013), which allows for the DTL of genes. We use ALE to efficiently approximate the sum of the joint likelihood over amalgamations and to find the reconciled gene tree that maximizes the joint likelihood among all such trees. We demonstrate using simulations that gene trees reconstructed using the joint likelihood are substantially more accurate than those reconstructed using sequence alone. Using realistic gene tree topologies, branch lengths, and alignment sizes, we demonstrate that ALE produces more accurate gene trees even if the model of sequence evolution is greatly simplified. Finally, examining 1099 gene families from 36 cyanobacterial genomes we find that joint likelihood-based inference results in a striking reduction in apparent phylogenetic discord, with respectively. 24%, 59%, and 46% reductions in the mean numbers of duplications, transfers, and losses per gene family. The open source implementation of ALE is available from https://github.com/ssolo/ALE.git. [amalgamation; gene tree reconciliation; gene tree reconstruction; lateral gene transfer; phylogeny.] PMID:23925510

Extreme Drought Event and Shrub Invasion Reduce Oak Trees Functioning and Resilience on Water-Limited Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, M. C.; Lobo-do-Vale, R.; Lecomte, X.; David, T. S.; Pinto, J. G.; Bugalho, M. N.; Werner, C.

2016-12-01

Extreme droughts and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning. Shrub encroachment is increasing in many regions worldwide and extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, namely in the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, little is known about how these drivers may interact and affect ecosystem functioning and resilience Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event in a Mediterranean oak woodland, we show that the combination of native shrub invasion and extreme drought reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of the key-stone oak tree species. We established six 25 x 25 m paired plots in a shrub (Cistus ladanifer L.) encroached Mediterranean cork-oak (Quercus suber L.) woodland. We measured sapflow and pre-dawn leaf water potential of trees and shrubs and soil water content in all plots during four years. We determined the resilience of tree transpiration to evaluate to what extent trees recovered from the extreme drought event. From February to November 2011 we conducted baseline measurements for plot comparison. In November 2011 all the shrubs from one of all the paired plots were cut and removed. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub, which further increased after the extreme drought. Simultaneously, tree transpiration in invaded plots declined more sharply (67 ± 13 %) than in plots cleared from shrubs (31 ± 11%) relative to the pre-drought year (2011). Trees in invaded plots were not able to recover in the following wetter year showing lower resilience to the extreme drought event. Our results imply that in Mediterranean-type of climates invasion by water spending species coupled with the projected recurrent extreme droughts will cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of trees to be overcome, thus increasing the probability of tree mortality.

A dynamical model for bark beetle outbreaks

Treesearch

Vlastimil Krivan; Mark Lewis; Barbara J. Bentz; Sharon Bewick; Suzanne M. Lenhart; Andrew Liebhold

2016-01-01

Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees...

Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions.

PubMed

El-Shanawany, Ashraf Ben; Ardron, Keith H; Walker, Simon P

2018-01-26

Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed-form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling-based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed-form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks's method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Nonbinary Tree-Based Phylogenetic Networks.

PubMed

Jetten, Laura; van Iersel, Leo

2018-01-01

Rooted phylogenetic networks are used to describe evolutionary histories that contain non-treelike evolutionary events such as hybridization and horizontal gene transfer. In some cases, such histories can be described by a phylogenetic base-tree with additional linking arcs, which can, for example, represent gene transfer events. Such phylogenetic networks are called tree-based. Here, we consider two possible generalizations of this concept to nonbinary networks, which we call tree-based and strictly-tree-based nonbinary phylogenetic networks. We give simple graph-theoretic characterizations of tree-based and strictly-tree-based nonbinary phylogenetic networks. Moreover, we show for each of these two classes that it can be decided in polynomial time whether a given network is contained in the class. Our approach also provides a new view on tree-based binary phylogenetic networks. Finally, we discuss two examples of nonbinary phylogenetic networks in biology and show how our results can be applied to them.

Disentangling factors that control the vulnerability of forests to catastrophic wind damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dracup, E.; Taylor, A.; MacLean, D.; Boulanger, Y.

2017-12-01

Wind is an important driver of forest dynamics along North America's north-eastern coastal forests, but also damages many commercially managed forests which society relies as an important source of wood fiber. Although the influence of wind on north-eastern forests is well recognized, knowledge of factors predisposing trees to wind damage is less known, especially in the context of large, powerful wind storm events. This is of particular concern as climate change is expected to alter the frequency and severity of strong wind storms affecting this region. On 29 September 2003, Hurricane Juan made landfall over Nova Scotia, Canada as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 158 km/h, and gusts of up to 185 km/h. Hurricane Juan variously damaged a swath of over 600,000 ha of forest. The damaged forest area was surveyed using aerial photography and LandSAT imagery and categorized according to level of wind damage sustained (none, low, moderate, severe) at a resolution of 15 x 15 m square cells. We used Random Forest to analyze and compare level of wind damage in each cell with a myriad of abiotic (exposure, depth to water table, soil composition, etc.) and biotic (tree species composition, canopy closure, canopy height, etc.) factors known or expected to predispose trees to windthrow. From our analysis, we identified topographic exposure, precipitation, and maximum gust speed as the top predictors of windthrow during Hurricane Juan. To our surprise, forest stand factors, such as tree species composition and height, had minimal effects on level of windthrow. These results can be used to construct predictive risk maps which can help society to assess the vulnerability of forests to future wind storm events.

Dissecting the space-time structure of tree-ring datasets using the partial triadic analysis.

PubMed

Rossi, Jean-Pierre; Nardin, Maxime; Godefroid, Martin; Ruiz-Diaz, Manuela; Sergent, Anne-Sophie; Martinez-Meier, Alejandro; Pâques, Luc; Rozenberg, Philippe

2014-01-01

Tree-ring datasets are used in a variety of circumstances, including archeology, climatology, forest ecology, and wood technology. These data are based on microdensity profiles and consist of a set of tree-ring descriptors, such as ring width or early/latewood density, measured for a set of individual trees. Because successive rings correspond to successive years, the resulting dataset is a ring variables × trees × time datacube. Multivariate statistical analyses, such as principal component analysis, have been widely used for extracting worthwhile information from ring datasets, but they typically address two-way matrices, such as ring variables × trees or ring variables × time. Here, we explore the potential of the partial triadic analysis (PTA), a multivariate method dedicated to the analysis of three-way datasets, to apprehend the space-time structure of tree-ring datasets. We analyzed a set of 11 tree-ring descriptors measured in 149 georeferenced individuals of European larch (Larix decidua Miller) during the period of 1967-2007. The processing of densitometry profiles led to a set of ring descriptors for each tree and for each year from 1967-2007. The resulting three-way data table was subjected to two distinct analyses in order to explore i) the temporal evolution of spatial structures and ii) the spatial structure of temporal dynamics. We report the presence of a spatial structure common to the different years, highlighting the inter-individual variability of the ring descriptors at the stand scale. We found a temporal trajectory common to the trees that could be separated into a high and low frequency signal, corresponding to inter-annual variations possibly related to defoliation events and a long-term trend possibly related to climate change. We conclude that PTA is a powerful tool to unravel and hierarchize the different sources of variation within tree-ring datasets.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Throughfall Amounts and Solutes in a Tropical Montane Forest - Comparisons with Findings From Lowland Rain Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, A.

2007-05-01

The diverse tree species composition, irregular shaped tree crowns and a multi-layered forest structure affect the redistribution of rainfall in lower montane rain forests. In addition, abundant epiphyte biomass and associated canopy humus influence spatial patterns of throughfall. The spatial variability of throughfall amounts controls spatial patterns of solute concentrations and deposition. Moreover, the living and dead biomass interacts with the rainwater during the passage through the canopy and creates a chemical variability of its own. Since spatial and temporal patterns are intimately linked, the analysis of temporal solute concentration dynamics is an important step to understand the emerging spatial patterns. I hypothesized that: (1) the spatial variability of volumes and chemical composition of throughfall is particularly high compared with other forests because of the high biodiversity and epiphytism, (2) the temporal stability of the spatial pattern is high because of stable structures in the canopy (e.g. large epiphytes) that show only minor changes during the short term observation period, and (3) the element concentrations decrease with increasing rainfall because of exhausting element pools in the canopy. The study area at 1950 m above sea level is located in the south Ecuadorian Andes far away from anthropogenic emission sources and marine influences. Rain and throughfall were collected from August to October 2005 on an event and within-event basis for five precipitation periods and analyzed for pH, K, Na, Ca, Mg, NH4+, Cl-, NO3-, PO43-, TN, TP and TOC. Throughfall amounts and most of the solutes showed a high spatial variability, thereby the variability of H+, K, Ca, Mg, Cl- and NO3- exceeded those from a Brazilian tropical rain forest. The temporal persistence of the spatial patterns was high for throughfall amounts and varied depending on the solute. Highly persistent time stability patterns were detected for K, Mg and TOC concentrations. Time stability patterns of solute deposition were somewhat weaker than for concentrations for most of the solutes. Epiphytes strongly affected time stability patterns in that collectors situated below thick moss mats or arboreal bromeliads were in large part responsible for the extreme persistence with low throughfall amounts and high ion concentrations (H+ showed low concentrations). Rainfall solute concentrations were low compared with a variety of other tropical lowland and montane forest sites and showed a small temporal variability during the study period for both between and within-event dynamics, respectively. Throughfall solute concentrations were more within the range when compared with other sites and showed highly variable within-event dynamics. For most of the solutes, within-event concentrations did not reach low, constant concentrations in later event stages, rather concentrations fluctuated (e.g. Cl-) or increased (e.g. K and TOC). The within-event throughfall solute concentration dynamics in this lower montane rain forest contrast to recent observations from lowland tropical rain forests in Panama and Brazil. The observed within-event patterns are attributed (1) to the influence of epiphytes and associated canopy humus, and (2) to low rainfall intensities.

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pederson, Neil; Dyer, James M.; McEwan, Ryan W.; Hessl, Amy E.; Mock, Cary J.; Orwig, David A.; Rieder, Harald E.; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

Natural tree regeneration and coarse woody debris dynamics after a forest fire in the western Cascade Range

Treesearch

Martin J. Brown; Jane Kertis; Mark H. Huff

2013-01-01

We monitored coarse woody debris dynamics and natural tree regeneration over a 14-year period after the 1991 Warner Creek Fire, a 3631-ha (8,972-ac) mixed severity fire in the western Cascade Range of Oregon. Rates for tree mortality in the fire, postfire mortality, snag fall, and snag fragmentation all showed distinct patterns by tree diameter and species, with...

Total water storage dynamics derived from tree-ring records and terrestrial gravity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzfeldt, Benjamin; Heinrich, Ingo; Merz, Bruno

2015-10-01

For both societal and ecological reasons, it is important to understand past and future subsurface water dynamics but estimating subsurface water storage is notoriously difficult. In this pilot study, we suggest the reconstruction of subsurface water dynamics by a multi-disciplinary approach combining hydrology, dendrochronology and geodesy. In a first step, nine complete years of high-precision gravimeter observations are used to estimate water storage changes in the subsurface at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell in the Bavarian Forest, Germany. The record is extended to 63 years by calibrating a hydrological model against the 9 years of gravimeter observations. The relationship between tree-ring growth and water storage changes is evaluated as well as that between tree-ring growth and supplementary hydro-meteorological data. Results suggest that tree-ring growth is influenced primarily by subsurface water storage. Other variables related to the overall moisture status (e.g., Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index, streamflow) are also strongly correlated with tree-ring width. While these indices are all indicators of water stored in the landscape, water storage changes of the subsurface estimated by depth-integral measurements give us the unique opportunity to directly reconstruct subsurface water storage dynamics from records of tree-ring width. Such long reconstructions will improve our knowledge of past water storage variations and our ability to predict future developments. Finally, knowing the relationship between subsurface storage dynamics and tree-ring growth improves the understanding of the different signal components contained in tree-ring chronologies.

Carbon Isotopes in Pinus elliotti from Big Pine Key, Florida: Indicators of Seasonal Precipitation, ENSO and Disturbance Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebenack, C.; Willoughby, H. E.; Anderson, W. T.; Cherubini, P.

2013-12-01

The South Florida coastal ecosystem is among the world's subtropical coastlines which are threatened by the potential effects of climate change. A well-developed localized paleohistory is essential in the understanding of the role climate variability/change has on both hydrological dynamics and disturbance event frequency and intensity; this understanding can then aid in the development of better predictive models. High resolution paleoclimate proxies, such as those developed from tree-ring archives, may be useful tools for extrapolating actual climate trends over time from the overlapping long-term and short-term climate cycles, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In South Florida, both the AMO and ENSO strongly influence seasonal precipitation, and a more complete grasp of how these cycles have affected the region in the past could be applied to future freshwater management practices. Dendrochronology records for the terrestrial subtropics, including South Florida, are sparse because seasonality for this region is precipitation driven; this is in contrast to the drastic temperature changes experienced in the temperate latitudes. Subtropical seasonality may lead to the complete lack of visible rings or to the formation of ring structures that may or may not represent annual growth. Fortunately, it has recently been demonstrated that Pinus elliottii trees in South Florida produce distinct annual growth rings; however ring width was not found to significantly correlate with either the AMO or ENSO. Dendrochronology studies may be taken a step beyond the physical tree-ring proxies by using the carbon isotope ratios to infer information about physiological controls and environmental factors that affect the distribution of isotopes within the plant. It has been well established that the stable isotope composition of cellulose can be related to precipitation, drought, large-scale ocean/atmospheric oscillations, and disturbance events. Because slash pine growth is dependent on water availability, a chronology developed using carbon isotopes may provide greater insight into plant stress over time and ultimately may lead to better correlations with climate oscillations. The work presented here is the result of a carbon-isotope study of four slash pine trees from Big Pine Key, Florida. The δ13C data show seasonal stomatal activity in the trees that can be linked to regional precipitation and, to a larger extent, to the ENSO cycles. In addition, there are several anomalies in the carbon isotope record that may indicate the timing of disturbance events.

Comprehensive monitoring of Bangladesh tree cover inside and outside of forests, 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potapov, P.; Siddiqui, B. N.; Iqbal, Z.; Aziz, T.; Zzaman, B.; Islam, A.; Pickens, A.; Talero, Y.; Tyukavina, A.; Turubanova, S.; Hansen, M. C.

2017-10-01

A novel approach for satellite-based comprehensive national tree cover change assessment was developed and applied in Bangladesh, a country where trees outside of forests play an important role in the national economy and carbon sequestration. Tree cover change area was quantified using the integration of wall-to-wall Landsat-based mapping with a higher spatial resolution sample-based assessment. The total national tree canopy cover area was estimated as 3165 500 ± 186 600 ha in the year 2000, with trees outside forests making up 54% of total canopy cover. Total tree canopy cover increased by 135 700 (± 116 600) ha (4.3%) during the 2000-2014 time interval. Bangladesh exhibits a national tree cover dynamic where net change is rather small, but gross dynamics significant and variable by forest type. Despite the overall gain in tree cover, results revealed the ongoing clearing of natural forests, especially within the Chittagong hill tracts. While forests decreased their tree cover area by 83 600 ha, the trees outside forests (including tree plantations, village woodlots, and agroforestry) increased their canopy area by 219 300 ha. Our results demonstrated method capability to quantify tree canopy cover dynamics within a fine-scale agricultural landscape. Our approach for comprehensive monitoring of tree canopy cover may be recommended for operational implementation in Bangladesh and other countries with significant tree cover outside of forests.

Are trees long-lived?

Treesearch

Kevin T. Smith

2009-01-01

Trees and tree care can capture the best of people's motivations and intentions. Trees are living memorials that help communities heal at sites of national tragedy, such as Oklahoma City and the World Trade Center. We mark the places of important historical events by the trees that grew nearby even if the original tree, such as the Charter Oak in Connecticut or...

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

Geologic events coupled with Pleistocene climatic oscillations drove genetic variation of Omei treefrog (Rhacophorus omeimontis) in southern China.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Zhao, Mian; Wei, Shichao; Luo, Zhenhua; Wu, Hua

2015-12-21

Pleistocene climatic oscillations and historical geological events may both influence current patterns of genetic variation, and the species in southern China that faced unique climatic and topographical events have complex evolutionary histories. However, the relative contributions of climatic oscillations and geographical events to the genetic variation of these species remain undetermined. To investigate patterns of genetic variation and to test the hypotheses about the factors that shaped the distribution of this genetic variation in species of southern China, mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2) and nine microsatellite loci of the Omei tree frog (Rhacophorus omeimontis) were amplified in this study. The genetic diversity in the populations of R. omeimontis was high. The phylogenetic trees reconstructed from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes and the Bayesian genetic clustering analysis based on microsatellite data both revealed that all populations were divided into three lineages (SC, HG and YN). The two most recent splitting events among the lineages coincided with recent geological events (including the intense uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, QTP and the subsequent movements of the Yun-Gui Plateau, YGP) and the Pleistocene glaciations. Significant expansion signals were not detected in mismatch analyses or neutrality tests. And the effective population size of each lineage was stable during the Pleistocene. Based on the results of this study, complex geological events (the recent dramatic uplift of the QTP and the subsequent movements of the YGP) and the Pleistocene glaciations were apparent drivers of the rapid divergence of the R. omeimontis lineages. Each diverged lineages survived in situ with limited gene exchanges, and the stable demographics of lineages indicate that the Pleistocene climatic oscillations were inconsequential for this species. The analysis of genetic variation in populations of R. omeimontis contributes to the understanding of the effects of changes in climate and of geographical events on the dynamic development of contemporary patterns of genetic variation in the species of southern China.

The Dynamics of Incomplete Lineage Sorting across the Ancient Adaptive Radiation of Neoavian Birds

PubMed Central

Suh, Alexander; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2015-01-01

The diversification of neoavian birds is one of the most rapid adaptive radiations of extant organisms. Recent whole-genome sequence analyses have much improved the resolution of the neoavian radiation and suggest concurrence with the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary, yet the causes of the remaining genome-level irresolvabilities appear unclear. Here we show that genome-level analyses of 2,118 retrotransposon presence/absence markers converge at a largely consistent Neoaves phylogeny and detect a highly differential temporal prevalence of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), i.e., the persistence of ancestral genetic variation as polymorphisms during speciation events. We found that ILS-derived incongruences are spread over the genome and involve 35% and 34% of the analyzed loci on the autosomes and the Z chromosome, respectively. Surprisingly, Neoaves diversification comprises three adaptive radiations, an initial near-K-Pg super-radiation with highly discordant phylogenetic signals from near-simultaneous speciation events, followed by two post-K-Pg radiations of core landbirds and core waterbirds with much less pronounced ILS. We provide evidence that, given the extreme level of up to 100% ILS per branch in super-radiations, particularly rapid speciation events may neither resemble a fully bifurcating tree nor are they resolvable as such. As a consequence, their complex demographic history is more accurately represented as local networks within a species tree. PMID:26284513

Influences of canopy photosynthesis and summer rain pulses on root dynamics and soil respiration in a young ponderosa pine forest.

PubMed

Misson, Laurent; Gershenson, Alexander; Tang, Jianwu; McKay, Megan; Cheng, Weixin; Goldstein, Allen

2006-07-01

Our first objective was to link the seasonality of fine root dynamics with soil respiration in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) plantation located in the Sierra Nevada of California. The second objective was to examine how canopy photosynthesis influences fine root initiation, growth and mortality in this ecosystem. We compared CO2 flux measurements with aboveground and belowground root dynamics. Initiation of fine root growth coincided with tree stem thickening and shoot elongation, preceding new needle growth. In the spring, root, shoot and stem growth occurred simultaneously with the increase in canopy photosynthesis. Compared with the other tree components, initial growth rate of fine roots was the highest and their growing period was the shortest. Both above and belowground components completed 90% of their growth by the end of July and the growing season lasted approximately 80 days. The period for optimal growth is short at the study site because of low soil temperatures during winter and low soil water content during summer. High photosynthetic rates were observed following unusual late-summer rains, but tree growth did not resume. The autotrophic contribution to soil respiration was 49% over the whole season, with daily contributions ranging between 18 and 87%. Increases in soil and ecosystem respiration were observed during spring growth; however, the largest variation in soil respiration occurred during summer rain events when no growth was observed. Both the magnitude and persistence of the soil respiration pulses were positively correlated with the amount of rain. These pulses accounted for 16.5% of soil respiration between Days 130 and 329.

Ever-Young Sex Chromosomes in European Tree Frogs

PubMed Central

Lindtke, Dorothea; Sermier, Roberto; Betto-Colliard, Caroline; Dufresnes, Christophe; Bonjour, Emmanuel; Dumas, Zoé; Luquet, Emilien; Maddalena, Tiziano; Sousa, Helena Clavero; Martinez-Solano, Iñigo; Perrin, Nicolas

2011-01-01

Non-recombining sex chromosomes are expected to undergo evolutionary decay, ending up genetically degenerated, as has happened in birds and mammals. Why are then sex chromosomes so often homomorphic in cold-blooded vertebrates? One possible explanation is a high rate of turnover events, replacing master sex-determining genes by new ones on other chromosomes. An alternative is that X-Y similarity is maintained by occasional recombination events, occurring in sex-reversed XY females. Based on mitochondrial and nuclear gene sequences, we estimated the divergence times between European tree frogs (Hyla arborea, H. intermedia, and H. molleri) to the upper Miocene, about 5.4–7.1 million years ago. Sibship analyses of microsatellite polymorphisms revealed that all three species have the same pair of sex chromosomes, with complete absence of X-Y recombination in males. Despite this, sequences of sex-linked loci show no divergence between the X and Y chromosomes. In the phylogeny, the X and Y alleles cluster according to species, not in groups of gametologs. We conclude that sex-chromosome homomorphy in these tree frogs does not result from a recent turnover but is maintained over evolutionary timescales by occasional X-Y recombination. Seemingly young sex chromosomes may thus carry old-established sex-determining genes, a result at odds with the view that sex chromosomes necessarily decay until they are replaced. This raises intriguing perspectives regarding the evolutionary dynamics of sexually antagonistic genes and the mechanisms that control X-Y recombination. PMID:21629756

The role of hybridization in facilitating tree invasion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hybridization events can generate additional genetic diversity on which natural selection can act and at times enhance invasiveness of the species. Invasive tree species are a growing ecological concern worldwide, and some of these invasions involve hybridization events pre- or post-introduction. Th...

Measuring urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes.

PubMed

Ossola, Alessandro; Hopton, Matthew E

2018-01-15

The spatial arrangement of urban vegetation depends on urban morphology and socio-economic settings. Urban vegetation changes over time because of human management. Urban trees are removed due to hazard prevention or aesthetic preferences. Previous research attributed tree loss to decreases in canopy cover. However, this provides little information about location and structural characteristics of trees lost, as well as environmental and social factors affecting tree loss dynamics. This is particularly relevant in residential landscapes where access to residential parcels for field surveys is limited. We tested whether multi-temporal airborne LiDAR and multi-spectral imagery collected at a 5-year interval can be used to investigate urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes in Denver, CO and Milwaukee, WI, covering 400,705 residential parcels in 444 census tracts. Position and stem height of trees lost were extracted from canopy height models calculated as the difference between final (year 5) and initial (year 0) vegetation height derived from LiDAR. Multivariate regression models were used to predict number and height of tree stems lost in residential parcels in each census tract based on urban morphological and socio-economic variables. A total of 28,427 stems were lost from residential parcels in Denver and Milwaukee over 5years. Overall, 7% of residential parcels lost one stem, averaging 90.87 stems per km 2 . Average stem height was 10.16m, though trees lost in Denver were taller compared to Milwaukee. The number of stems lost was higher in neighborhoods with higher canopy cover and developed before the 1970s. However, socio-economic characteristics had little effect on tree loss dynamics. The study provides a simple method for measuring urban tree loss dynamics within and across entire cities, and represents a further step toward high resolution assessments of the three-dimensional change of urban vegetation at large spatial scales. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dynamic magnification factors for tree blow-down by powder snow avalanche air blasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartelt, Perry; Bebi, Peter; Feistl, Thomas; Buser, Othmar; Caviezel, Andrin

2018-03-01

We study how short duration powder avalanche blasts can break and overturn tall trees. Tree blow-down is often used to back-calculate avalanche pressure and therefore constrain avalanche flow velocity and motion. We find that tall trees are susceptible to avalanche air blasts because the duration of the air blast is near to the period of vibration of tall trees, both in bending and root-plate overturning. Dynamic magnification factors for bending and overturning failures should therefore be considered when back-calculating avalanche impact pressures.

Breakage or uprooting: How tree death type affects hillslope processes in old-growth temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šamonil, Pavel; Daněk, Pavel; Adam, Dušan; Phillips, Jonathan D.

2017-12-01

Tree breakage and uprooting are two possible scenarios of tree death that have differing effects on hillslope processes. In this study we aimed to (i) reveal the long-term structure of the biomechanical effects of trees (BETs) in relation to their radial growth and tree death types in four old-growth temperate forests in four different elevation settings with an altitudinal gradient of 152-1105 m a.s.l., (ii) quantify affected areas and soil volumes associated with the studied BETs in reserves, and (iii) derive a general model of the role of BETs in hillslope processes in central European temperate forests. We analyzed the individual dynamics of circa 55,000 trees in an area of 161 ha within four old-growth forests over 3-4 decades. Basal tree censuses established in all sites in the 1970s and repeated tree censuses in the 1990s and 2000s provided detailed information about the radial growth of each tree of DBH ≥ 10 cm as well as about types of tree death. We focused on the quantification of: (i) surviving still-living trees, (ii) new recruits, (iii) standing dead trees, (iv) uprooted trees, and (v) broken trees. Frequencies of phenomena were related to affected areas and volumes of soil using individual statistical models. The elevation contrasts were a significant factor in the structure of BETs. Differences between sites increased from frequencies of events through affected areas to volumes of soil associated with BETs. An average 2.7 m3 ha-1 year-1 was associated with all BETs of the living and dying trees in lowlands, while there was an average of 7.8 m3 ha-1 year-1 in the highest mountain site. Differences were caused mainly by the effects of dying trees. BETs associated with dead trees were 7-8 times larger in the mountains. Effects of dying trees and particularly treethrows represented about 70% of all BETs at both mountain sites, while it was 58% at the highland site and only 32% at the lowland site. Our results show a more significant role of BETs in hillslope processes including slope denudation in the mountains. We would expect a significant decrease of the biogeomorphic effect of trees in managed forests, but with a greater relative effect in mountains.

Relationships between acoustic variables and different measures of stiffness in standing Pinus taeda trees

Treesearch

Christian R. Mora; Laurence R. Schimleck; Fikret Isik; Jerry M. Mahon Jr.; Alexander Clark III; Richard F. Daniels

2009-01-01

Acoustic tools are increasingly used to estimate standing-tree (dynamic) stiffness; however, such techniques overestimate static stiffness, the standard measurement for determining modulus of elasticity (MOE) of wood. This study aimed to identify correction methods for standing-tree estimates making dynamic and static stiffness comparable. Sixty Pinus taeda L...

Variability in early height growth rate of forest trees: implications for retrospective studies of stand dynamics

Treesearch

Brain J. Palik; Kurt S. Pregitzer

1995-01-01

Retrospective studies of forest stand dynamics may rely on estimates of tree ages. In some of these studies, trees are aged near the stem base, while in other studies trees may be aged at breast height. An age correction may be added to breast-height ages in an attempt to account for average time to reach breast height and thus provide better estimates of total ages....

A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riyadi, Eko H.

2014-09-01

Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logic model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events.

Constraint Embedding Technique for Multibody System Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woo, Simon S.; Cheng, Michael K.

2011-01-01

Multibody dynamics play a critical role in simulation testbeds for space missions. There has been a considerable interest in the development of efficient computational algorithms for solving the dynamics of multibody systems. Mass matrix factorization and inversion techniques and the O(N) class of forward dynamics algorithms developed using a spatial operator algebra stand out as important breakthrough on this front. Techniques such as these provide the efficient algorithms and methods for the application and implementation of such multibody dynamics models. However, these methods are limited only to tree-topology multibody systems. Closed-chain topology systems require different techniques that are not as efficient or as broad as those for tree-topology systems. The closed-chain forward dynamics approach consists of treating the closed-chain topology as a tree-topology system subject to additional closure constraints. The resulting forward dynamics solution consists of: (a) ignoring the closure constraints and using the O(N) algorithm to solve for the free unconstrained accelerations for the system; (b) using the tree-topology solution to compute a correction force to enforce the closure constraints; and (c) correcting the unconstrained accelerations with correction accelerations resulting from the correction forces. This constraint-embedding technique shows how to use direct embedding to eliminate local closure-loops in the system and effectively convert the system back to a tree-topology system. At this point, standard tree-topology techniques can be brought to bear on the problem. The approach uses a spatial operator algebra approach to formulating the equations of motion. The operators are block-partitioned around the local body subgroups to convert them into aggregate bodies. Mass matrix operator factorization and inversion techniques are applied to the reformulated tree-topology system. Thus in essence, the new technique allows conversion of a system with closure-constraints into an equivalent tree-topology system, and thus allows one to take advantage of the host of techniques available to the latter class of systems. This technology is highly suitable for the class of multibody systems where the closure-constraints are local, i.e., where they are confined to small groupings of bodies within the system. Important examples of such local closure-constraints are constraints associated with four-bar linkages, geared motors, differential suspensions, etc. One can eliminate these closure-constraints and convert the system into a tree-topology system by embedding the constraints directly into the system dynamics and effectively replacing the body groupings with virtual aggregate bodies. Once eliminated, one can apply the well-known results and algorithms for tree-topology systems to solve the dynamics of such closed-chain system.

What determines tree mortality in dry environments? A multi-perspective approach.

PubMed

Dorman, Michael; Svoray, Tal; Perevolotsky, Avi; Moshe, Yitzhak; Sarris, Dimitrios

2015-06-01

Forest ecosystems function under increasing pressure due to global climate changes, while factors determining when and where mortality events will take place within the wider landscape are poorly understood. Observational studies are essential for documenting forest decline events, understanding their determinants, and developing sustainable management plans. A central obstacle towards achieving this goal is that mortality is often patchy across a range of spatial scales, and characterized by long-term temporal dynamics. Research must therefore integrate different methods, from several scientific disciplines, to capture as many relevant informative patterns as possible. We performed a landscape-scale assessment of mortality and its determinants in two representative Pinus halepensis planted forests from a dry environment (~300 mm), recently experiencing an unprecedented sequence of two severe drought periods. Three data sources were integrated to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in forest performance: (1) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series, from 18 Landsat satellite images; (2) individual dead trees point-pattern, based on a high-resolution aerial photograph; and (3) Basal Area Increment (BAI) time-series, from dendrochronological sampling in three sites. Mortality risk was higher in older-aged sparse stands, on southern aspects, and on deeper soils. However, mortality was patchy across all spatial scales, and the locations of patches within "high-risk" areas could not be fully explained by the examined environmental factors. Moreover, the analysis of past forest performance based on NDVI and tree rings has indicated that the areas affected by each of the two recent droughts do not coincide. The association of mortality with lower tree densities did not support the notion that thinning semiarid forests will increase survival probability of the remaining trees when facing extreme drought. Unique information was obtained when merging dendrochronological and remotely sensed performance indicators, in contrast to potential bias when using a single approach. For example, dendrochronological data suggested highly resilient tree growth, since it was based only on the "surviving" portion of the population, thus failing to identify past demographic changes evident through remote sensing. We therefore suggest that evaluation of forest resilience should be based on several metrics, each suited for detecting transitions at a different level of organization.

Throughfall and stemflow dynamics in a riparian cedar swamp: possible ecohydrological feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duval, T. P.

2012-12-01

Partitioning of rainfall through forest canopies as throughfall and stemflow have deservedly been the subject of much research in the past; however, very little is known about the fluxes of water and solutes through forested wetland communities. Temperate swamps are characterized by intermittent canopy coverage, with areas that are denser than upland forests of similar species, but also contain canopy gaps of meadow and marsh communities,. Understanding the role of vegetation on the distribution of precipitation in these ecosystems is necessary to effectively constrain water balance estimates and predict possible community responses to shifting climate regimes. This study examines throughfall, stemflow, and interception dynamics in a riparian cedar swamp in Alliston, Ontario, Canada over the 2012 growing season. Throughfall averaged 76 % of above-canopy rainfall; however, there were spatial-magnitude interaction variations within the swamp. For events less than 20 mm, between 17 and 75 % of the measured swamp floor received greater depth of rain than above the canopy, whereas for events greater than 20 mm only between 2 and 23 % of the sampled swamp floor received more water than the actual event. The observed spatial variability in throughfall was not related to leaf area index, suggesting remote sensing modelling efforts may not be an accurate method for quantification of wetland precipitation dynamics. Stemflow along the predominantly cedar trees averaged 5 %; therefore, net precipitation on a seasonal basis in this cedar swamp was 81 % of above canopy rainfall. Throughfall DOC and total nitrogen concentrations averaged 31 and 2.2 mg/L, respectively, with stemflow DOC and TN concentrations averaging 109 and 6.5 mg/L, respectively. These values are much higher than reported for upland forest species. In general, throughfall magnitudes increased and solute concentrations decreased with increasing distance from the existing forest boles. The delivery of high reactive-solute concentrations through stemflow and comparatively reduced throughfall water fluxes closer to the trees may represent an ecohydrological feedback to cedar maintenance in swamp ecosystems by enriching the root zone soil with nutrients and shedding water away from the roots in a system where the presence of water is viewed as a stress to optimal growth.

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-01-01

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958–2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes—more so than external climatic factors—are driving forest dynamics. PMID:25775576

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-03-31

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958-2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes-more so than external climatic factors-are driving forest dynamics.

RecPhyloXML - a format for reconciled gene trees.

PubMed

Duchemin, Wandrille; Gence, Guillaume; Arigon Chifolleau, Anne-Muriel; Arvestad, Lars; Bansal, Mukul S; Berry, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien; Chevenet, François; Comte, Nicolas; Davín, Adrián A; Dessimoz, Christophe; Dylus, David; Hasic, Damir; Mallo, Diego; Planel, Rémi; Posada, David; Scornavacca, Celine; Szöllosi, Gergely; Zhang, Louxin; Tannier, Éric; Daubin, Vincent

2018-05-14

A reconciliation is an annotation of the nodes of a gene tree with evolutionary events-for example, speciation, gene duplication, transfer, loss, etc-along with a mapping onto a species tree. Many algorithms and software produce or use reconciliations but often using different reconciliation formats, regarding the type of events considered or whether the species tree is dated or not. This complicates the comparison and communication between different programs. Here, we gather a consortium of software developers in gene tree species tree reconciliation to propose and endorse a format that aims to promote an integrative-albeit flexible-specification of phylogenetic reconciliations. This format, named recPhyloXML, is accompanied by several tools such as a reconciled tree visualizer and conversion utilities. http://phylariane.univ-lyon1.fr/recphyloxml/. wandrille.duchemin@univ-lyon1.fr. There is no supplementary data associated with this publication.

Compensatory mechanisms mitigate the effect of warming and drought on wood formation.

PubMed

Balducci, Lorena; Cuny, Henri E; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Deslauriers, Annie; Giovannelli, Alessio; Rossi, Sergio

2016-06-01

Because of global warming, high-latitude ecosystems are expected to experience increases in temperature and drought events. Wood formation will have to adjust to these new climatic constraints to maintain tree mechanical stability and long-distance water transport. The aim of this study is to understand the dynamic processes involved in wood formation under warming and drought. Xylogenesis, gas exchange, water relations and wood anatomy of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] saplings were monitored during a greenhouse experiment where temperature was increased during daytime or night-time (+6 °C) combined with a drought period. The kinetics of tracheid development expressed as rate and duration of the xylogenesis sub-processes were quantified using generalized additive models. Drought and warming had a strong influence on cell production, but little effect on wood anatomy. The increase in cell production rate under warmer temperatures, and especially during the night-time warming at the end of the growing season, resulted in wider tree-rings. However, the strong compensation between rates and durations of cell differentiation processes mitigates warming and drought effects on tree-ring structure. Our results allowed quantification of how wood formation kinetics is regulated when water and heat stress increase, allowing trees to adapt to future environmental conditions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reliability analysis of airship remote sensing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Jun

1998-08-01

Airship Remote Sensing System (ARSS) for obtain the dynamic or real time images in the remote sensing of the catastrophe and the environment, is a mixed complex system. Its sensor platform is a remote control airship. The achievement of a remote sensing mission depends on a series of factors. For this reason, it is very important for us to analyze reliability of ARSS. In first place, the system model was simplified form multi-stage system to two-state system on the basis of the result of the failure mode and effect analysis and the failure tree failure mode effect and criticality analysis. The failure tree was created after analyzing all factors and their interrelations. This failure tree includes four branches, e.g. engine subsystem, remote control subsystem, airship construction subsystem, flying metrology and climate subsystem. By way of failure tree analysis and basic-events classing, the weak links were discovered. The result of test running shown no difference in comparison with theory analysis. In accordance with the above conclusions, a plan of the reliability growth and reliability maintenance were posed. System's reliability are raised from 89 percent to 92 percent with the reformation of the man-machine interactive interface, the augmentation of the secondary better-groupie and the secondary remote control equipment.

Secure access control and large scale robust representation for online multimedia event detection.

PubMed

Liu, Changyu; Lu, Bin; Li, Huiling

2014-01-01

We developed an online multimedia event detection (MED) system. However, there are a secure access control issue and a large scale robust representation issue when we want to integrate traditional event detection algorithms into the online environment. For the first issue, we proposed a tree proxy-based and service-oriented access control (TPSAC) model based on the traditional role based access control model. Verification experiments were conducted on the CloudSim simulation platform, and the results showed that the TPSAC model is suitable for the access control of dynamic online environments. For the second issue, inspired by the object-bank scene descriptor, we proposed a 1000-object-bank (1000OBK) event descriptor. Feature vectors of the 1000OBK were extracted from response pyramids of 1000 generic object detectors which were trained on standard annotated image datasets, such as the ImageNet dataset. A spatial bag of words tiling approach was then adopted to encode these feature vectors for bridging the gap between the objects and events. Furthermore, we performed experiments in the context of event classification on the challenging TRECVID MED 2012 dataset, and the results showed that the robust 1000OBK event descriptor outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches.

Analytical simulation and PROFAT II: a new methodology and a computer automated tool for fault tree analysis in chemical process industries.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Abbasi, S A

2000-07-10

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is based on constructing a hypothetical tree of base events (initiating events) branching into numerous other sub-events, propagating the fault and eventually leading to the top event (accident). It has been a powerful technique used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries. As the systematic articulation of the fault tree is associated with assigning probabilities to each fault, the exercise is also sometimes called probabilistic risk assessment. But powerful as this technique is, it is also very cumbersome and costly, limiting its area of application. We have developed a new algorithm based on analytical simulation (named as AS-II), which makes the application of FTA simpler, quicker, and cheaper; thus opening up the possibility of its wider use in risk assessment in chemical process industries. Based on the methodology we have developed a computer-automated tool. The details are presented in this paper.

Effects of ENSO and Temporal Rainfall Variation on the Dynamics of Successional Communities in Old-Field Succession of a Tropical Dry Forest

PubMed Central

Maza-Villalobos, Susana; Poorter, Lourens; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel

2013-01-01

The effects of temporal variation of rainfall on secondary succession of tropical dry ecosystems are poorly understood. We studied effects of inter-seasonal and inter-year rainfall variation on the dynamics of regenerative successional communities of a tropical dry forest in Mexico. We emphasized the effects caused by the severe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred in 2005. We established permanent plots in sites representing a chronosequence of Pasture (abandoned pastures, 0–1 years fallow age), Early (3–5), Intermediate (8–12), and Old-Growth Forest categories (n = 3 per category). In total, 8210 shrubs and trees 10 to 100-cm height were identified, measured, and monitored over four years. Rates of plant recruitment, growth and mortality, and gain and loss of species were quantified per season (dry vs. rainy), year, and successional category, considering whole communities and separating seedlings from sprouts and shrubs from trees. Community rates changed with rainfall variation without almost any effect of successional stage. Mortality and species loss rates peaked during the ENSO year and the following year; however, after two rainy years mortality peaked in the rainy season. Such changes could result from the severe drought in the ENSO year, and of the outbreak of biotic agents during the following rainy years. Growth, recruitment and species gain rates were higher in the rainy season but they were significantly reduced after the ENSO year. Seedlings exhibited higher recruitment and mortality rate than sprouts, and shrubs showed higher recruitment than trees. ENSO strongly impacted both the dynamics and trajectory of succession, creating transient fluctuations in the abundance and species richness of the communities. Overall, there was a net decline in plant and species density in most successional stages along the years. Therefore, strong drought events have critical consequences for regeneration dynamics, delaying the successional process and modifying the resilience of these systems. PMID:24349179

Meio- and Macrofaunal Communities in Artificial Water-Filled Tree Holes: Effects of Seasonality, Physical and Chemical Parameters, and Availability of Food Resources

PubMed Central

Ptatscheck, Christoph; Traunspurger, Walter

2015-01-01

Objectives In this study we investigated the dynamics of meiofaunal and macrofaunal communities in artificial water-filled tree holes. The abundances and, for the first time, biomasses and secondary production rates of these communities were examined. The experimental set-up consisted of 300 brown plastic cups placed in temperate mixed forests and sampled five times over a period of 16 months to determine the impact of (i) seasonal events, (ii) physicochemical parameters, and (iii) food resources on the tree hole metazoans. Outcomes Metazoan organisms, especially the meiofauna (rotifers and nematodes) occupied nearly all of the cups (> 99%) throughout the year. Between 55% and 99% of the metazoan community was represented by rotifers (max. 557,000 individuals 100 cm-2) and nematodes (max. 58,000 individuals 100 cm-2). Diptera taxa, particularly Dasyhelea sp. (max. 256 individuals 100 cm-2) dominated the macrofaunal community. Macrofauna accounted for the majority of the metazoan biomass, with a mean dry weight of 5,800 μg 100 cm-2 and an annual production rate of 20,400 μg C 100 cm-2, whereas for meiofauna mean biomass and annual production were 100 μg 100 cm-2 and 5,300 μg C 100 cm-2, respectively. The macrofaunal taxa tended to show more fluctuating population dynamic while the meiofaunal dynamic was rather low with partly asynchronous development. Seasonality (average temperature and rain intervals) had a significant impact on both meiofauna and macrofauna. Furthermore, bottom-up control (chlorophyll-a and organic carbon), mainly attributable to algae, was a significant factor that shaped the metazoan communities. In contrast, physicochemical water parameters had no evident influence. 23.7% of organism density distribution was explained by redundancy analysis (RDA) indicating a high dynamic and asynchrony of the systems. PMID:26284811

Cambial history of Scots pine trees (Pinus Sylvestris) prior and after the Chernobyl accident as encoded in the xylem.

PubMed

Tulik, M

2001-08-01

Studies were carried out on wood samples collected in October 1997 from breast height of Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris) from site located 5 km south from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. The radioactive contamination at the site was 3.7x10(5) kBq m(-2). These samples of secondary wood were used as an archive of information about the dynamics of a meristematic tissue cambium affected by ionising radiation from the Chernobyl reactor accident. The results show that frequency of the cambial cells events like anticlinal divisions, intrusive growth and cells elimination, was after the Chernobyl accident, about three times higher in comparison to preceding years. The most interesting finding was that after irradiation the length of tracheids increased. This increase is interpreted as an effect of intracambial competition among cells in the initial layer.

Large-scale wind disturbances promote tree diversity in a Central Amazon forest.

PubMed

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q; Higuchi, Niro; Trumbore, Susan E; Ribeiro, Gabriel H P M; Dos Santos, Joaquim; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

2014-01-01

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m(2)) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 to 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583 ± 46 trees ha(-1)) (mean ± 99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7 ± 2.4 m(2) ha(-1)). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha(-1) and 14.9 m(2) ha(-1), respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m(2)) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

PubMed Central

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro; Trumbore, Susan E.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; dos Santos, Joaquim; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

2014-01-01

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 to 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha−1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m2 ha−1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha−1 and 14.9 m2 ha−1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level. PMID:25099118

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m 2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 tomore » 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha -1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m 2 ha -1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha -1 and 14.9 m 2 ha -1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m 2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.« less

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

DOE PAGES

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro; ...

2014-08-06

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m 2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 tomore » 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha -1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m 2 ha -1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha -1 and 14.9 m 2 ha -1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m 2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.« less

Cavitation propagation in water under tension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noblin, Xavier; Yip Cheung Sang, Yann; Pellegrin, Mathieu; Materials and Complex Fluids Team

2012-11-01

Cavitation appears when pressure decreases below vapor pressure, generating vapor bubbles. It can be obtain in dynamical ways (acoustic, hydraulic) but also in quasi-static conditions. This later case is often observed in nature, in trees, or during the ejection of ferns spores. We study the cavitation bubbles nucleation dynamics and its propagation in a confined microfabricated media. This later is an ordered array of microcavities made in hydrogel filled with water. When the system is put into dry air, it dehydrates, water leaves the cavities and tension (negative pressure) builds in the cavities. This can be sustained up to a critical pressure (of order -20 MPa), then cavitation bubbles appear. We follow the dynamics using ultra high speed imaging. Events with several bubbles cavitating in a few microseconds could be observed along neighboring cells, showing a propagation phenomenon that we discuss. ANR CAVISOFT 2010-JCJC-0407 01.

Dynamics of water transport and storage in conifers studied with deuterium and heat tracing techniques.

Treesearch

F.C. Meinzer; J.R. Brooks; J.-C. Domec; B.L. Gartner; J.M. Warren; D.R. Woodruff; K. Bible; D.C. Shaw

2006-01-01

The volume and complexity of their vascular systems make the dynamics of tong-distance water transport in large trees difficult to study. We used heat and deuterated water (D20) as tracers to characterize whole-tree water transport and storage properties in individual trees belonging to the coniferous species Pseudotsuga menziesii...

Leaf-litter inputs from an invasive nitrogen-fixing tree influence organic-matter dynamics and nitrogen inputs in a Hawaiian river

Treesearch

Richard A. MacKenzie; Tracy N. Wiegner; Frances Kinslow; Nicole Cormier; Ayron M. Strauch

2013-01-01

Abstract. We examined how invasion of tropical riparian forests by an exotic N-fixing tree (Falcataria moluccana) affects organic-matter dynamics in a Hawaiian river by comparing early stages of leaf-litter breakdown between the exotic F. moluccana and native Metrosideros polymorpha trees. We examined early...

Stand dynamics of mixed red alder-conifer forests of southeast Alaska.

Treesearch

Robert L. Deal; Paul E. Hennon; Ewa H. Orlikowska; David V. D' Amore

2004-01-01

Stand structure and dynamics were evaluated in mixed red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) - conifer forests of southeast Alaska. We assessed stand development, tree density, total basal area, diameter distribution of live and dead trees, height distribution of live trees, and mean diameter of all and largest conifers in 40-year-old red alder - conifer...

Exposure of trees to drought-induced die-off is defined by a common climatic threshold across different vegetation types

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Patrick J; O'Grady, Anthony P; Hayes, Keith R; Pinkard, Elizabeth A

2014-01-01

Increases in drought and temperature stress in forest and woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise in episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common to mortality events and the impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize climatic drivers associated with documented tree die-off events across Australia using standardized climatic indices to represent the key dimensions of drought stress for a range of vegetation types. We identify a common probabilistic threshold associated with an increased risk of die-off across all the sites that we examined. We show that observed die-off events occur when water deficits and maximum temperatures are high and exist outside 98% of the observed range in drought intensity; this threshold was evident at all sites regardless of vegetation type and climate. The observed die-off events also coincided with at least one heat wave (three consecutive days above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature), emphasizing a pivotal role of heat stress in amplifying tree die-off and mortality processes. The joint drought intensity and maximum temperature distributions were modeled for each site to describe the co-occurrence of both hot and dry conditions and evaluate future shifts in climatic thresholds associated with the die-off events. Under a relatively dry and moderate warming scenario, the frequency of droughts capable of inducing significant tree die-off across Australia could increase from 1 in 24 years to 1 in 15 years by 2050, accompanied by a doubling in the occurrence of associated heat waves. By defining commonalities in drought conditions capable of inducing tree die-off, we show a strong interactive effect of water and high temperature stress and provide a consistent approach for assessing changes in the exposure of ecosystems to extreme drought events. PMID:24772285

The complex evolutionary dynamics of ancient and recent polyploidy in Leucaena (Leguminosae; Mimosoideae).

PubMed

Govindarajulu, Rajanikanth; Hughes, Colin E; Alexander, Patrick J; Bailey, C Donovan

2011-12-01

The evolutionary history of Leucaena has been impacted by polyploidy, hybridization, and divergent allopatric species diversification, suggesting that this is an ideal group to investigate the evolutionary tempo of polyploidy and the complexities of reticulation and divergence in plant diversification. Parsimony- and ML-based phylogenetic approaches were applied to 105 accessions sequenced for six sequence characterized amplified region-based nuclear encoded loci, nrDNA ITS, and four cpDNA regions. Hypotheses for the origin of tetraploid species were inferred using results derived from a novel species tree and established gene tree methods and from data on genome sizes and geographic distributions. The combination of comprehensively sampled multilocus DNA sequence data sets and a novel methodology provide strong resolution and support for the origins of all five tetraploid species. A minimum of four allopolyploidization events are required to explain the origins of these species. The origin(s) of one tetraploid pair (L. involucrata/L. pallida) can be equally explained by two unique allopolyploidizations or a single event followed by divergent speciation. Alongside other recent findings, a comprehensive picture of the complex evolutionary dynamics of polyploidy in Leucaena is emerging that includes paleotetraploidization, diploidization of the last common ancestor to Leucaena, allopatric divergence among diploids, and recent allopolyploid origins for tetraploid species likely associated with human translocation of seed. These results provide insights into the role of divergence and reticulation in a well-characterized angiosperm lineage and into traits of diploid parents and derived tetraploids (particularly self-compatibility and year-round flowering) favoring the formation and establishment of novel tetraploids combinations.

Preventing medical errors by designing benign failures.

PubMed

Grout, John R

2003-07-01

One way to successfully reduce medical errors is to design health care systems that are more resistant to the tendencies of human beings to err. One interdisciplinary approach entails creating design changes, mitigating human errors, and making human error irrelevant to outcomes. This approach is intended to facilitate the creation of benign failures, which have been called mistake-proofing devices and forcing functions elsewhere. USING FAULT TREES TO DESIGN FORCING FUNCTIONS: A fault tree is a graphical tool used to understand the relationships that either directly cause or contribute to the cause of a particular failure. A careful analysis of a fault tree enables the analyst to anticipate how the process will behave after the change. EXAMPLE OF AN APPLICATION: A scenario in which a patient is scalded while bathing can serve as an example of how multiple fault trees can be used to design forcing functions. The first fault tree shows the undesirable event--patient scalded while bathing. The second fault tree has a benign event--no water. Adding a scald valve changes the outcome from the undesirable event ("patient scalded while bathing") to the benign event ("no water") Analysis of fault trees does not ensure or guarantee that changes necessary to eliminate error actually occur. Most mistake-proofing is used to prevent simple errors and to create well-defended processes, but complex errors can also result. The utilization of mistake-proofing or forcing functions can be thought of as changing the logic of a process. Errors that formerly caused undesirable failures can be converted into the causes of benign failures. The use of fault trees can provide a variety of insights into the design of forcing functions that will improve patient safety.

Boolean logic tree of graphene-based chemical system for molecular computation and intelligent molecular search query.

PubMed

Huang, Wei Tao; Luo, Hong Qun; Li, Nian Bing

2014-05-06

The most serious, and yet unsolved, problem of constructing molecular computing devices consists in connecting all of these molecular events into a usable device. This report demonstrates the use of Boolean logic tree for analyzing the chemical event network based on graphene, organic dye, thrombin aptamer, and Fenton reaction, organizing and connecting these basic chemical events. And this chemical event network can be utilized to implement fluorescent combinatorial logic (including basic logic gates and complex integrated logic circuits) and fuzzy logic computing. On the basis of the Boolean logic tree analysis and logic computing, these basic chemical events can be considered as programmable "words" and chemical interactions as "syntax" logic rules to construct molecular search engine for performing intelligent molecular search query. Our approach is helpful in developing the advanced logic program based on molecules for application in biosensing, nanotechnology, and drug delivery.

Quantifying geomorphic controls on riparian forest dynamics using a linked physical-biological model: implications for river corridor conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Harper, E. B.; Fremier, A. K.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.

2009-12-01

In high-order alluvial river systems, physical factors of flooding and channel migration are particularly important drivers of riparian forest dynamics because they regulate habitat creation, resource fluxes of water, nutrients and light that are critical for growth, and mortality from fluvial disturbance. Predicting vegetation composition and dynamics at individual sites in this setting is challenging, both because of the stochastic nature of the flood regime and the spatial variability of flood events. Ecological models that correlate environmental factors with species’ occurrence and abundance (e.g., ’niche models’) often work well in infrequently-disturbed upland habitats, but are less useful in river corridors and other dynamic zones where environmental conditions fluctuate greatly and selection pressures on disturbance-adapted organisms are complex. In an effort to help conserve critical riparian forest habitat along the middle Sacramento River, CA, we are taking a mechanistic approach to quantify linkages between fluvial and biotic processes for Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii), a keystone pioneer tree in dryland rivers ecosystems of the U.S. Southwest. To predict the corridor-wide population effects of projected changes to the disturbance regime from flow regulation, climate change, and landscape modifications, we have coupled a physical model of channel meandering with a patch-based population model that incorporates the climatic, hydrologic, and topographic factors critical for tree recruitment and survival. We employed these linked simulations to study the relative influence of the two most critical habitat types--point bars and abandoned channels--in sustaining the corridor-wide cottonwood population over a 175-year period. The physical model uses discharge data and channel planform to predict the spatial distribution of new habitat patches; the population model runs on top of this physical template to track tree colonization and survival on each patch. Model parameters of tree life-history traits (e.g., dispersal timing) and hydrogeomorphic processes (e.g., sedimentation rate) were determined by field and experimental studies, and aerial LIDAR, with separate range of values for point bar versus floodplain habitats. In most runs, abandoned channels were colonized one third as frequently as point bars, but supported much larger forest patches when colonization was successful (from 15-99% of forest area, depending on point bar success). Independent evaluation of aerial photos confirm that cottonwood forest stands associated with abandoned channels were less frequent (38% of all stands) but more extensive (53% of all forest area) relative to those caused by migrating point bars. Results indicate that changes to the rate and scale of river migration, and particularly channel abandonment, from human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics, with consequences for the community of organisms that depend on this habitat.

Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Guimaraes, Giuliano; Zeng, Hongcheng; Raupp, Carlos F. M.; Marra, Daniel M.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Nelson, Bruce W.; Higuchi, Niro

2010-08-01

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events in Amazonia that in turn might produce more forest blowdowns associated with convective storms. Yet quantitative tree mortality associated with convective storms has never been reported across Amazonia, representing an important additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that a single squall line (aligned cluster of convective storm cells) propagating across Amazonia in January, 2005, caused widespread forest tree mortality and may have contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Forest plot data demonstrated that the same year represented the second highest mortality rate over a 15-year annual monitoring interval. Over the Manaus region, disturbed forest patches generated by the squall followed a power-law distribution (scaling exponent α = 1.48) and produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. Basin-wide, potential tree mortality from this one event was estimated at 542 ± 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. Storm intensity is expected to increase with a warming climate, which would result in additional tree mortality and carbon release to the atmosphere, with the potential to further warm the climate system.

Signatures of cosmic-ray increase attributed to exceptional solar storms inferred from multiple cosmogenic radionuclide records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Adolphi, Florian; Svensson, Anders; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran; McConnell, Joseph R.; Sigl, Michael; Welten, Kees C.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

2014-05-01

Miyake et al. (2012, 2013) discovered rapid increases of 14C content in tree rings dated to AD 774-5 and AD 993-4 which they have attributed to cosmic-ray events. These extreme particle events have no counterparts in the instrumental record and have been tentatively associated with solar proton events, supernovae and short gamma-ray bursts, which have very different energy spectra. Cosmogenic radionuclides such as 14C, 10Be and 36Cl arise from the interaction of cosmic rays with atmospheric nitrogen, oxygen and argon. These radio-isotopes are produced through different reaction pathways and vary with different energy dependencies of the production rate cross section. Owing to this, yield functions can be used to determine the energy level of incident particles. However, only 14C has been measured at high resolution to quantify the energy and thus the origin of the outbursts. We present an annually resolved record of 10Be from the NGRIP ice core for the two events. In addition, we also utilized the GRIP ice core 36Cl record in our analysis. Our results show that the differential production of cosmogenic 14C, 10Be and 36Cl is consistent with a solar energy spectrum. Considering the notable increase in radionuclides, the solar storms would have had to be substantially greater than the largest recorded geomagnetic storm, the so-called Carrington event. This challenges our understanding of the sun's dynamics. Furthermore, the events could possibly be of interest for the investigation of potential cosmic ray-cloud linkages (Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997). Alternatively, such outbursts of energetic particles have the potential to deplete atmospheric ozone and alter atmospheric circulation. Ultimately, the magnitude of such particle events draws attention to the perhaps underestimated potential of the sun to cause great damage to modern technologies. References Miyake, F., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. Another rapid event in the carbon-14 content of tree rings. Nature Communications 4:1748, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms2783 (2013). Miyake, F., Nagaya, K., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. A signature of cosmic-ray increase in AD 774-775 from tree rings in Japan. Nature 486, 240-242, DOI: 210.1038/nature11123 (2012). Svensmark, H., & Friis-Christensen, E. Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage - A missing link in solar-climate relationships. J. Atmos. Sol., Terr. Phys., 59, 225-1232, DOI: 10.1029/1998JD200091 (1997).

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

PubMed Central

Caldeira, Maria C.; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Werner, Christiane

2015-01-01

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs. PMID:26461978

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates.

PubMed

Caldeira, Maria C; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S; Pinto, Joaquim G; Bugalho, Miguel N; Werner, Christiane

2015-10-13

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Maria C.; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Werner, Christiane

2015-10-01

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

Measuring (bio)physical tree properties using accelerometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, Tim; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Hut, Rolf; Gentine, Pierre; Selker, John; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-04-01

Trees play a crucial role in the water, carbon and nitrogen cycle on local, regional and global scales. Understanding the exchange of heat, water, and CO2 between trees and the atmosphere is important to assess the impact of drought, deforestation and climate change. Unfortunately, ground measurements of tree dynamics are often expensive, or difficult due to challenging environments. We demonstrate the potential of measuring (bio)physical properties of trees using robust and affordable acceleration sensors. Tree sway is dependent on e.g. mass and wind energy absorption of the tree. By measuring tree acceleration we can relate the tree motion to external loads (e.g. precipitation), and tree (bio)physical properties (e.g. mass). Using five months of acceleration data of 19 trees in the Brazilian Amazon, we show that the frequency spectrum of tree sway is related to mass, precipitation, and canopy drag. This presentation aims to show the concept of using accelerometers to measure tree dynamics, and we acknowledge that the presented example applications is not an exhaustive list. Further analyses are the scope of current research, and we hope to inspire others to explore additional applications.

A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riyadi, Eko H., E-mail: e.riyadi@bapeten.go.id

2014-09-30

Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logicmore » model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events.« less

Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability.

PubMed

Zang, Christian; Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Dittmar, Christoph; Rothe, Andreas; Menzel, Annette

2014-12-01

The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree-specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree-ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low-growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Structural system reliability calculation using a probabilistic fault tree analysis method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torng, T. Y.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, H. R.

1992-01-01

The development of a new probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) method for calculating structural system reliability is summarized. The proposed PFTA procedure includes: developing a fault tree to represent the complex structural system, constructing an approximation function for each bottom event, determining a dominant sampling sequence for all bottom events, and calculating the system reliability using an adaptive importance sampling method. PFTA is suitable for complicated structural problems that require computer-intensive computer calculations. A computer program has been developed to implement the PFTA.

Tree carbon allocation dynamics determined using a carbon mass balance approach.

PubMed

Klein, Tamir; Hoch, Günter

2015-01-01

Tree internal carbon (C) fluxes between compound and compartment pools are difficult to measure directly. Here we used a C mass balance approach to decipher these fluxes and provide a full description of tree C allocation dynamics. We collected independent measurements of tree C sinks, source and pools in Pinus halepensis in a semi-arid forest, and converted all fluxes to g C per tree d(-1) . Using this data set, a process flowchart was created to describe and quantify the tree C allocation on diurnal to annual time-scales. The annual C source of 24.5 kg C per tree yr(-1) was balanced by C sinks of 23.5 kg C per tree yr(-1) , which partitioned into 70%, 17% and 13% between respiration, growth, and litter (plus export to soil), respectively. Large imbalances (up to 57 g C per tree d(-1) ) were observed as C excess during the wet season, and as C deficit during the dry season. Concurrent changes in C reserves (starch) were sufficient to buffer these transient C imbalances. The C pool dynamics calculated using the flowchart were in general agreement with the observed pool sizes, providing confidence regarding our estimations of the timing, magnitude, and direction of the internal C fluxes. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Dynamics of leaf gas exchange, xylem and phloem transport, water potential and carbohydrate concentration in a realistic 3-D model tree crown.

PubMed

Nikinmaa, Eero; Sievänen, Risto; Hölttä, Teemu

2014-09-01

Tree models simulate productivity using general gas exchange responses and structural relationships, but they rarely check whether leaf gas exchange and resulting water and assimilate transport and driving pressure gradients remain within acceptable physical boundaries. This study presents an implementation of the cohesion-tension theory of xylem transport and the Münch hypothesis of phloem transport in a realistic 3-D tree structure and assesses the gas exchange and transport dynamics. A mechanistic model of xylem and phloem transport was used, together with a tested leaf assimilation and transpiration model in a realistic tree architecture to simulate leaf gas exchange and water and carbohydrate transport within an 8-year-old Scots pine tree. The model solved the dynamics of the amounts of water and sucrose solute in the xylem, cambium and phloem using a fine-grained mesh with a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. The simulations predicted the observed patterns of pressure gradients and sugar concentration. Diurnal variation of environmental conditions influenced tree-level gradients in turgor pressure and sugar concentration, which are important drivers of carbon allocation. The results and between-shoot variation were sensitive to structural and functional parameters such as tree-level scaling of conduit size and phloem unloading. Linking whole-tree-level water and assimilate transport, gas exchange and sink activity opens a new avenue for plant studies, as features that are difficult to measure can be studied dynamically with the model. Tree-level responses to local and external conditions can be tested, thus making the approach described here a good test-bench for studies of whole-tree physiology.

Tree-ring analysis of ancient baldcypress trees and subfossil wood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, David W.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Villanueva, Jose; Cerano, Julian; Fye, Falko K.; Griffin, R. Daniel; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Stahle, Daniel K.; Edmondson, Jesse R.; Wolff, Kathryn P.

2012-02-01

Ancient baldcypress trees found in wetland and riverine environments have been used to develop a network of exactly dated annual ring-width chronologies extending from the southeastern United States, across Mexico, and into western Guatemala. These chronologies are sensitive to growing season precipitation in spite of frequently flooded site conditions, and have been used to reconstruct moisture levels the southeastern United States and Mexico for over 1000 years. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major influence on the climate reconstructions derived from these baldcypress chronologies, especially in Mexico where some of the most extreme reconstructed droughts occurred during El Nino events. In the Southeast, the ENSO influence on climate and tree growth changes sign from spring to summer, and this change in dynamical forcing is recorded by sub-seasonal chronologies of earlywood and latewood width. Most existing baldcypress chronologies have been extended with tree-ring data from "subfossil" wood recovered from surface and submerged deposits. Well-preserved subfossil logs have also been recovered in quantity from buried deposits of great age, and may permit development of long continuously dated Holocene chronologies and discontinuous "floating" Pleistocene chronologies. The extensive subfossil baldcypress swamp discovered 6 m below the streets of Washington D.C. was overrun by a transgression of the Potomac estuary, possibly during the previous super interglacial (marine OIS 5e), and provides direct evidence for one potential impact of unmitigated anthropogenic warming and sea level rise.

Underground riparian wood: Reconstructing the processes influencing buried stem and coarse root structures of Black Poplar (Populus nigra L.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holloway, James V.; Rillig, Matthias C.; Gurnell, Angela M.

2017-02-01

Following analysis of morphological (including dendrochronological and sedimentological) aspects of buried stem and coarse root structures of eight mature P. nigra individuals located within two sites along the middle to lower Tagliamento River, Italy (Holloway et al., 2017), this paper introduces information on the historical processes of vegetation development and river flow and links this to the form of these eight trees. Aerial images and flow time series are assembled to reconstruct the flood history, potential recruitment periods, and vegetation cover development in the vicinity of the studied trees. This information is combined with previous morphological evidence to reconstruct the development history of each tree via three-element summary diagrams showing (i) a time series of floods, aerial imagery dates, and potential recruitment periods, with colour-coded bars indicating likely key stages in the development of the tree; (ii) colour-coded overlays on an SfM photogrammetric model of each tree; and (iii) colour-coded text boxes providing explanatory annotations. The combined morphology-process analysis reveals complex three-dimensional underground structures, incorporating buried stems, shoots, and adventitious roots that are sometimes joined by grafting, linking the standing tree with the buried gravel surface on which it was recruited. Analysis of process data provides a firm basis for identifying and dating influential flow disturbance events and recruitment windows and shows that a relatively small number of flood events have significantly impacted the studied trees, which are mainly but not exclusively the largest floods in the record. Nevertheless, we stress that all suggested dates are best estimates in the light of the combined evidence. There is undoubted potential for building different interpretations of belowground woody structure development in light of such evidence, but we feel that the form and timing of the developmental trajectories we have proposed are reasonable and give balanced insights into the many possible ways in which this hidden component of riparian trees may develop. Our results are relevant to river research and management issues concerning riparian woodland, fluvial wood dynamics, and wood budgets, as they indicate (i) a large hidden volume of wood that is often ignored; (ii) complex, deep, coarse anchorage structures that have relevance for rates of fluvial wood recruitment associated with lateral bank erosion/stability or wind throw; and (iii) a wood element that may significantly affect wood transport and retention within fluvial systems.

Riverine habitat dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, R.B.

2013-01-01

The physical habitat template is a fundamental influence on riverine ecosystem structure and function. Habitat dynamics refers to the variation in habitat through space and time as the result of varying discharge and varying geomorphology. Habitat dynamics can be assessed at spatial scales ranging from the grain (the smallest resolution at which an organism relates to its environment) to the extent (the broadest resolution inclusive of all space occupied during its life cycle). In addition to a potentially broad range of spatial scales, assessments of habitat dynamics may include dynamics of both occupied and nonoccupied habitat patches because of process interactions among patches. Temporal aspects of riverine habitat dynamics can be categorized into hydrodynamics and morphodynamics. Hydrodynamics refers to habitat variation that results from changes in discharge in the absence of significant change of channel morphology and at generally low sediment-transport rates. Hydrodynamic assessments are useful in cases of relatively high flow exceedance (percent of time a flow is equaled or exceeded) or high critical shear stress, conditions that are applicable in many studies of instream flows. Morphodynamics refers to habitat variation resulting from changes to substrate conditions or channel/floodplain morphology. Morphodynamic assessments are necessary when channel and floodplain boundary conditions have been significantly changed, generally by relatively rare flood events or in rivers with low critical shear stress. Morphodynamic habitat variation can be particularly important as disturbance mechanisms that mediate population growth or for providing conditions needed for reproduction, such as channel-migration events that erode cutbanks and provide new pointbar surfaces for germination of riparian trees. Understanding of habitat dynamics is increasing in importance as societal goals shift toward restoration of riverine ecosystems. Effective investment in restoration strategies requires that the role of physical habitat is correctly diagnosed and that restoration activities address true habitat limitations, including the role of dynamic habitats.

Selective Tree-ring Models: A Novel Method for Reconstructing Streamflow Using Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foard, M. B.; Nelson, A. S.; Harley, G. L.

2017-12-01

Surface water is among the most instrumental and vulnerable resources in the Northwest United States (NW). Recent observations show that overall water quantity is declining in streams across the region, while extreme flooding events occur more frequently. Historical streamflow models inform probabilities of extreme flow events (flood or drought) by describing frequency and duration of past events. There are numerous examples of tree-rings being utilized to reconstruct streamflow in the NW. These models confirm that tree-rings are highly accurate at predicting streamflow, however there are many nuances that limit their applicability through time and space. For example, most models predict streamflow from hydrologically altered rivers (e.g. dammed, channelized) which may hinder our ability to predict natural prehistoric flow. They also have a tendency to over/under-predict extreme flow events. Moreover, they often neglect to capture the changing relationships between tree-growth and streamflow over time and space. To address these limitations, we utilized national tree-ring and streamflow archives to investigate the relationships between the growth of multiple coniferous species and free-flowing streams across the NW using novel species-and site-specific streamflow models - a term we coined"selective tree-ring models." Correlation function analysis and regression modeling were used to evaluate the strengths and directions of the flow-growth relationships. Species with significant relationships in the same direction were identified as strong candidates for selective models. Temporal and spatial patterns of these relationships were examined using running correlations and inverse distance weighting interpolation, respectively. Our early results indicate that (1) species adapted to extreme climates (e.g. hot-dry, cold-wet) exhibit the most consistent relationships across space, (2) these relationships weaken in locations with mild climatic variability, and (3) some species appear to be strong candidates for predicting high flow events, while others may be better at pridicting drought. These findings indicate that selective models may outperform traditional models when reconstructing distinctive aspects of streamflow.

Impacts of age-dependent tree sensitivity and dating approaches on dendrogeomorphic time series of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šilhán, Karel; Stoffel, Markus

2015-05-01

Different approaches and thresholds have been utilized in the past to date landslides with growth ring series of disturbed trees. Past work was mostly based on conifer species because of their well-defined ring boundaries and the easy identification of compression wood after stem tilting. More recently, work has been expanded to include broad-leaved trees, which are thought to produce less and less evident reactions after landsliding. This contribution reviews recent progress made in dendrogeomorphic landslide analysis and introduces a new approach in which landslides are dated via ring eccentricity formed after tilting. We compare results of this new and the more conventional approaches. In addition, the paper also addresses tree sensitivity to landslide disturbance as a function of tree age and trunk diameter using 119 common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and 39 Crimean pine (Pinus nigra ssp. pallasiana) trees growing on two landslide bodies. The landslide events reconstructed with the classical approach (reaction wood) also appear as events in the eccentricity analysis, but the inclusion of eccentricity clearly allowed for more (162%) landslides to be detected in the tree-ring series. With respect to tree sensitivity, conifers and broad-leaved trees show the strongest reactions to landslides at ages comprised between 40 and 60 years, with a second phase of increased sensitivity in P. nigra at ages of ca. 120-130 years. These phases of highest sensitivities correspond with trunk diameters at breast height of 6-8 and 18-22 cm, respectively (P. nigra). This study thus calls for the inclusion of eccentricity analyses in future landslide reconstructions as well as for the selection of trees belonging to different age and diameter classes to allow for a well-balanced and more complete reconstruction of past events.

Triggered surface slips in the Coachella Valley area associated with the 1992 Joshua Tree and Landers, California, Earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rymer, M.J.

2000-01-01

The Coachella Valley area was strongly shaken by the 1992 Joshua Tree (23 April) and Landers (28 June) earthquakes, and both events caused triggered slip on active faults within the area. Triggered slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake was on a newly recognized fault, the East Wide Canyon fault, near the southwestern edge of the Little San Bernardino Mountains. Slip associated with the Landers earthquake formed along the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures formed along the East Wide Canyon fault in association with the Joshua Tree earthquake. The fractures extended discontinuously over a 1.5-km stretch of the fault, near its southern end. Sense of slip was consistently right-oblique, west side down, similar to the long-term style of faulting. Measured offset values were small, with right-lateral and vertical components of slip ranging from 1 to 6 mm and 1 to 4 mm, respectively. This is the first documented historic slip on the East Wide Canyon fault, which was first mapped only months before the Joshua Tree earthquake. Surface slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake most likely developed as triggered slip given its 5 km distance from the Joshua Tree epicenter and aftershocks. As revealed in a trench investigation, slip formed in an area with only a thin (<3 m thick) veneer of alluvium in contrast to earlier documented triggered slip events in this region, all in the deep basins of the Salton Trough. A paleoseismic trench study in an area of 1992 surface slip revealed evidence of two and possibly three surface faulting events on the East Wide Canyon fault during the late Quaternary, probably latest Pleistocene (first event) and mid- to late Holocene (second two events). About two months after the Joshua Tree earthquake, the Landers earthquake then triggered slip on many faults, including the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures associated with this event formed discontinuous breaks over a 54-km-long stretch of the fault, from the Indio Hills southeastward to Durmid Hill. Sense of slip was right-lateral; only locally was there a minor (~1 mm) vertical component of slip. Measured dextral displacement values ranged from 1 to 20 mm, with the largest amounts found in the Mecca Hills where large slip values have been measured following past triggered-slip events.

The Inference of Gene Trees with Species Trees

PubMed Central

Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien

2015-01-01

This article reviews the various models that have been used to describe the relationships between gene trees and species trees. Molecular phylogeny has focused mainly on improving models for the reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alignments. Yet, most phylogeneticists seek to reveal the history of species. Although the histories of genes and species are tightly linked, they are seldom identical, because genes duplicate, are lost or horizontally transferred, and because alleles can coexist in populations for periods that may span several speciation events. Building models describing the relationship between gene and species trees can thus improve the reconstruction of gene trees when a species tree is known, and vice versa. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the problem in one direction or the other, but in general neither gene trees nor species trees are known. Only a few studies have attempted to jointly infer gene trees and species trees. These models account for gene duplication and loss, transfer or incomplete lineage sorting. Some of them consider several types of events together, but none exists currently that considers the full repertoire of processes that generate gene trees along the species tree. Simulations as well as empirical studies on genomic data show that combining gene tree–species tree models with models of sequence evolution improves gene tree reconstruction. In turn, these better gene trees provide a more reliable basis for studying genome evolution or reconstructing ancestral chromosomes and ancestral gene sequences. We predict that gene tree–species tree methods that can deal with genomic data sets will be instrumental to advancing our understanding of genomic evolution. PMID:25070970

Reconciliation of Gene and Species Trees

PubMed Central

Rusin, L. Y.; Lyubetskaya, E. V.; Gorbunov, K. Y.; Lyubetsky, V. A.

2014-01-01

The first part of the paper briefly overviews the problem of gene and species trees reconciliation with the focus on defining and algorithmic construction of the evolutionary scenario. Basic ideas are discussed for the aspects of mapping definitions, costs of the mapping and evolutionary scenario, imposing time scales on a scenario, incorporating horizontal gene transfers, binarization and reconciliation of polytomous trees, and construction of species trees and scenarios. The review does not intend to cover the vast diversity of literature published on these subjects. Instead, the authors strived to overview the problem of the evolutionary scenario as a central concept in many areas of evolutionary research. The second part provides detailed mathematical proofs for the solutions of two problems: (i) inferring a gene evolution along a species tree accounting for various types of evolutionary events and (ii) trees reconciliation into a single species tree when only gene duplications and losses are allowed. All proposed algorithms have a cubic time complexity and are mathematically proved to find exact solutions. Solving algorithms for problem (ii) can be naturally extended to incorporate horizontal transfers, other evolutionary events, and time scales on the species tree. PMID:24800245

Effect of simulated monsoon failure on the carbon balance of mountain forests, Bhutan, eastern Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wangdi, Norbu; Ahmed, Iftekhar; Zangmo, Norbu; Gratzer, Georg; Jandl, Robert; Schindlbacher, Andreas

2017-04-01

Extreme climatic events leading to severe disturbances in ecosystems are expected to increase globally. Such events carry strong potentials for severe reductions or whole losses of ecosystem services. This is particularly true for the Himalayas: they are located in a region forming a tipping element in the Earth's climate system. At a millennial time scale, complete breakdowns of the summer monsoon circulation and a resulting failure of the Indian summer monsoon rains have occurred several times during the last 1000 years. Climate change potentially increases the frequency of such monsoon failures and related mega-droughts. Given the significance of the region, the knowledge on the effects of climate change on forest ecosystem C dynamics is strikingly limited. While the effects of droughts are studied experimentally in Europe and North America, no precipitation manipulation experiments have been carried out in the Himalayas yet. We make use of natural forests with coexisting conifer and broadleaf as well as deciduous and evergreen species at slopes of stark environmental gradients for conducting a replicated large-scale five year throughfall exclosure experiment. We study drought response at individual tree and ecosystem levels. We present the effects of the experimental drought on the ecosystem carbon balance, integrating above- and belowground pools and fluxes such as heterotrophic and autotrophic soil respiration, litter fall and root turnover as well as above- and belowground tree growth. A preliminary assessment indicates that soil microbes were primarily affected during the first three years of simulated drought, whereas trees altered allocation patterns but survived the experimental drought. A detailed analysis will be presented at the conference.

Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

2015-01-01

Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

Decadal record of monsoon dynamics across the Himalayas using tree ring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunello, Camilla Francesca; Andermann, Christoff; Helle, Gerhard; Comiti, Francesco; Tonon, Giustino; Ventura, Maurizio; Hovius, Niels

2017-04-01

The temporal variability of the Indian monsoon penetrating through the Himalayan range and into the southern Tibetan Plateau is poorly understood. Intermittent ingress of wet monsoon air masses into the otherwise arid and deserted landscapes beyond the orographic barrier can have consequences for erosion and flooding, as well as for water availability. Furthermore, the latitudinal rainfall distribution across the mountain range is crucial to better understand the hydrological cycles of rivers originating there. Because instrumental measurements are rare in the High Himalayas and on the Plateau, hydro-climatic sensitive proxies, such as oxygen stable isotope ratios in cellulose of tree-rings, are a valuable source of data covering decades to centuries. Here we present new findings on how often and how far the Indian monsoon penetrated into trans-Himalayan region over the last century. To cope with the lack of direct measurements, we strive to reconstruct a record of intense monsoon years based on tree-ring width chronologies along a latitudinal gradient. Thus, we need to answer whether water availability is the main driver of tree growth in the trans-Himalayan region and how dendro-isotopic data relate to seasonal precipitation inputs and sources. In order to study the monsoon dynamics, we selected four sites along the Kali Gandaki River valley in the central Himalayas (Nepal). This valley connects the very wet, monsoon dominated south Himalayan front with the arid trans-Himalayan region and the southern Tibetan Plateau. Our study area covers the sensitive northern end of the precipitation gradient, located in the upper part of the catchment. Water availability, which drastically varies at each site, was explored by using the climate signal- and isotope-transfer within arboreal systems composed of Juniperus sp., Cupressus sp. and Pinus sp. Results from continuous dendrometer measurements for the entire growing season (Mar-Oct) allowed us to assess the link between tree growth and precipitation, confirming the sensitivity of the trees to water availability. A set of cores from at least 20 individual trees was collected at each site. Dating revealed records with lengths from 80 to 500 years. Tree-ring width measurements were detrended to minimize the ecological influence on growth, and analyzed against local climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation. The site chronologies were compared to highlight the propagation of the monsoonal events along the latitudinal transect. Additionally, 80-year tree-ring oxygen isotope records from the lowest site (Lete, 2500 m a.s.l.) of the transect were compared with precipitation patterns derived from historical rain gauge and satellite data. This study provides first insights into the relationship among tree-ring width, cellulose isotopes and monsoon signature, shedding light on decadal variations of precipitation in the high-elevated arid area of the High Himalayas.

137Cs dynamics in the forest of Fukushima after the nuclear power plant accident in March 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, I.; Ohte, N.; Iseda, K.; Kobayashi, N.; Hirose, A.; Tanoi, K.

2013-12-01

The accident of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the earthquake and Tsunami in March 11th 2011, caused large amount of radioactive Cesium (137Cs) emission into the environment. In the region of Fukushima Prefecture, forest dominates more than 70 % of the land area. River water from the forest area is used for food production and also for drinking water. Thus, it is important to understand the dynamics of 137Cs deposited in the forest to predict how the radioactive Cs diffuse and discharge from the forest catchments. We measured 137Cs concentration of the tree body, litter fall, throughfall, and stemflow, in order to clarify how 137Cs deposited on the above ground biomass of the forest are transported to the forest floor. We set forest site at the upstream part of Kami-Oguni River catchment, northern part of Fukushima Prefecture. Three plots (2 deciduous stands and 1 Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) plantation stand) were set in the forest site. Quercus serrata and C. japonica, which are representative tree species, were chosen at each plot and concentration of 137Cs on the bark, sapwood and heartwood were measured every 2 m from the ground to tree top. From each plot, 137Cs concentration of leaf litter was measured among species. Water samples of throughfall and stemflow were filtered and 137Cs concentration in suspended matter was measured. 137Cs was deposited on the bark of Q. serrata at high concentration (9-18 kBq/kg) but there were no clear relationship between tree height and concentration. 137Cs concentration of the sapwood (41 Bq/kg) was relatively higher than that of the heartwood (5 Bq/kg). It was suggested that 137Cs may be absorbed from bark and/or root. The concentration of 137Cs deposited in leaf litter varied from non-detected level to above 30 kBq/kg. The concentration was higher at evergreen tree than deciduous tree. It is considered that the litter of evergreen tree was derived from leaves on the tree canopy at the time of the accident. Also, though the leaves of deciduous trees had not been emerged at the time of the accident, significant levels of 137Cs on those leaves suggest that 137Cs may have translocated from some part of tree body. The concentration of 137Cs in rain water was below detection level. However, both throughfall and stemflow contained 137Cs at every plot. From these results, it is suggested that 137Cs deposited on the above ground biomass of the forest continues to move to the forest floor by litter fall and rain event.

Species-specific intrinsic water use efficiency and its mediation of carbon assimilation during the drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, K.; Wenzel, M. K.; Maxwell, J. T.; Novick, K. A.; Gray, A.; Roman, D. T.

2015-12-01

Drought is expected to occur more frequently and intensely in the future, and many studies have suggested frequent and intense droughts can significantly alter carbon and water cycling in forest ecosystems, consequently decreasing the ability of forests to assimilate carbon. Predicting the impact of drought on forest ecosystem processes requires an understanding of species-specific responses to drought, especially in eastern US where species composition is highly dynamic. An emerging approach for describing species-specific drought response is to classify the plant water use strategy into isohydric and anisohydric behaviors. Trees utilizing isohydric behavior regulate water potential by closing stomata to reduce water loss during drought conditions, while anisohydric trees allow water potential to drop by sustaining stomatal conductance, but with the risk of hydraulic failure caused by cavitation of xylem tissues. Since catastrophic cavitation occurs infrequently in the relatively wet eastern U.S., we hypothesize that 1) tree growth of isohydric trees will be more limited during the drought than the anisohydric trees due to decreased stomatal conductance, but 2) variation in intrinsic water use efficient (iWUE) during drought in isohydric trees will mediate the effects of drought on carbon assimilation. We will test these hypotheses by 1) analyzing tree-ring chronologies and dendrometer data on productivity, and 2) estimating intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) at multiple scales by analyzing gas exchange data for the leaf-level, inter-annual variability of d13C in tree stem cores for the tree-level, and eddy covariance technique for the stand-level. Our study site is the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (Indiana, USA). A 46 m flux tower has been continuously recording the carbon, water and energy fluxes, and tree diameter has been measured every 2 weeks using dendrometers, since 1998. Additional research, including gas exchange measurements performed during the growing seasons of 2011-2013 and tree-ring chronologies collected in 2014 and 2015, enable us to assess the long-term impact of climate on the ecosystem processes at multiple scales. Finally, the severe drought experienced in this region in 2012 will help us evaluate how productivity and iWUE respond to an especially severe drought event.

Monitoring stress-related mass variations in Amazon trees using accelerometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, T. H. M.; Steele-Dunne, S. C.; Gentine, P.; Hut, R.; Guerin, M. F.; Leus, G.; Oliveira, R. S.; Van De Giesen, N.

2016-12-01

Containing half of the world's rainforests, the Amazon plays a key role in the global water and carbon budget. However, the Amazon remains poorly understood, but appears to be vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, and future droughts have the potential to considerably change the global water and carbon budget. Field measurements will allow further investigations of the effects of moisture stress and droughts on tree dynamics, and its impact on the water and carbon budget. This study focuses on studying the diurnal mass variations of seven Amazonian tree species. The mass of trees is influenced by physiological processes within the tree (e.g. transpiration and root water uptake), as well as external loads (e.g. intercepted precipitation). Depending on the physiological traits of an individual tree, moisture stress and drought affect processes such as photosynthesis, assimilation, transpiration, and root water uptake. In turn, these have their influence on diurnal mass variations of a tree. Our study uses measured three-dimensional displacement and acceleration of trees, to detect and quantify their diurnal (bio)mass variations. Nineteen accelerometers and dendrometers were installed on seven different tree species in the Amazon rainforest, covering an area of 250 x 250 m. The selected species span a wide range in wood density (0.5 - 1.1), diameter (15 - 40 cm) and height (25 - 60 m). Acceleration was measured with a frequency of 10 Hz, from August 2015 to June 2016, covering both the wet and dry season. On-site additional measurements of net radiation, wind speed at three heights, temperature, and precipitation as available every 15 minutes. Dendrometers measured variation in xylem and bark thickness every 5 minutes. The MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm was applied to the acceleration time series to estimate the frequency spectrum of each tree. A correction was necessary to account for the dominant effect of wind. The resulting spectra reveal clear diurnal variations, as well as changes during precipitation events. Comparison with ancillary data suggests that we can extract information on diurnal mass variations from the accelerometer data. This may provide valuable insight into the effects of water stress on mass variations in different Amazon tree species.

High-Frequency Measurements of Tree Methane Fluxes Indicate a Primary Souce Inside Tree Tissue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, P.; Megonigal, P.

2017-12-01

Methane emissions from the boles and shoots of living upland trees is a recent discovery with significant implications for methane budgets. Forest soil methane uptake is the greatest terrestrial methane sink, but studies have shown this may be partially for fully offset by tree methane sources. However, our ability to quantify the tree source has been hampered because the ultimate biological source(s) of methane is unclear. We measured methane fluxes from two species of living tree boles in an Eastern North American deciduous forest over 100 consecutive days. Our two hour sampling intervals allowed us to characterize diurnal patterns and seasonal dynamics. We observed wide intraspecific differences in average flux rates and diurnal dynamics, even between adjacent individuals. This and other properties of the fluxes indicates the primary methane source is likely within the tree tissues, not in soil or groundwater. Emissions of methane from trees offset approximately 10% of soil uptake on average, but at times tree fluxes were much higher. Preliminary analyses indicate the highest rates are related to tree life history, tree growth, temperature, ground-water depth, and soil moisture.

Water, gravity and trees: Relationship of tree-ring widths and total water storage dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzfeldt, B.; Heinrich, I.; Merz, B.; Blume, T.; Güntner, A.

2012-04-01

Water stored in the subsurface as groundwater or soil moisture is the main fresh water source not only for drinking water and food production but also for the natural vegetation. In a changing environment water availability becomes a critical issue in many different regions. Long-term observations of the past are needed to improve the understanding of the hydrological system and the prediction of future developments. Tree ring data have repeatedly proved to be valuable sources for reconstructing long-term climate dynamics, e.g. temperature, precipitation and different hydrological variables. In water-limited environments, tree growth is primarily influenced by total water stored in the subsurface and hence, tree-ring records usually contain information about subsurface water storage. The challenge is to retrieve the information on total water storage from tree rings, because a training dataset of water stored in the sub-surface is required for calibration against the tree-ring series. However, measuring water stored in the subsurface is notoriously difficult. We here present high-precision temporal gravimeter measurements which allow for the depth-integrated quantification of total water storage dynamics at the field scale. In this study, we evaluate the relationship of total water storage change and tree ring growth also in the context of the complex interactions of other meteorological forcing factors. A tree-ring chronology was derived from a Norway spruce stand in the Bavarian Forest, Germany. Total water storage dynamics were measured directly by the superconducting gravimeter of the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell for a 9-years period. Time series were extended to 63-years period by a hydrological model using gravity data as the only calibration constrain. Finally, water storage changes were reconstructed based on the relationship between the hydrological model and the tree-ring chronology. Measurement results indicate that tree-ring growth is primarily controlled by total water storage in the subsurface. But high uncertainties intervals of the correlation coefficient urges for the extension of the measurement period. This multi-disciplinary study, combining hydrology, dendrochronology and geodesy shows that temporal gravimeter measurements may give us the unique opportunity to retrieve the information of total water storage contained in tree-ring records to reconstruct total water storage dynamics. Knowing the relationship of water storage and tree-ring growth can also support the reconstruction of other climate records based on tree-ring series, help with hydrological model testing and can improve our knowledge of long-term variations of water storage in the past.

Extreme drought event and shrub invasion combine to reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Maria; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa; Pinto, Joaquim; Bugalho, Miguel; Werner, Christiane

2016-04-01

Extreme droughts and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning. Shrub encroachment is increasing in many regions worldwide and extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, namely in the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, little is known about how these drivers may interact and affect ecosystem functioning and resilience to extreme droughts. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that the native shrub invasion and extreme drought combined to reduce ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of the key-stone oak tree species. We established six 25 x 25 m paired plots in a shrub (Cistus ladanifer L.) encroached Mediterranean cork-oak (Quercus suber L.) woodland. We measured sapflow and pre-dawn leaf water potential of trees and shrubs and soil water content in all plots during three years. We determined the resilience of tree transpiration to evaluate to what extent trees recovered from the extreme drought event. From February to November 2011 we conducted baseline measurements for plot comparison. In November 2011 all the shrubs from one of all the paired plots were cut and removed. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub, which further increased after the extreme drought. Simultaneously, tree transpiration in invaded plots declined much stronger (67 ± 13 %) than in plots cleared from shrubs (31 ± 11%) relative to the pre-drought year. Trees in invaded plots were not able to recover in the following wetter year showing lower resilience to the extreme drought event. Our results imply that in Mediterranean-type of climates invasion by water spending species can combine with projected recurrent extreme droughts causing critical drought tolerance thresholds of trees to be overcome increasing the probability of tree mortality (Caldeira et.al. 2015). Caldeira M.C., Lecomte X., David T.S., Pinto J.G., Bugalho M.N. & Werner C. (2015). Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates. Scientific Reports, 5, 15110.

Differences in xylogenesis between dominant and suppressed trees.

PubMed

Liu, Shushan; Li, Xiaoxia; Rossi, Sergio; Wang, Lily; Li, Wei; Liang, Eryuan; Leavitt, Steven W

2018-05-01

Most dendroecological studies focus on dominant trees, but little is known about the growing season of trees belonging to different size classes and their sensitivity to biotic factors. The objective of this study was to compare the dynamics of xylem formation between dominant and suppressed trees of Abies fabri of similar age growing in the Gongga Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and to identify the association between xylem growth and climate. The timing and duration of xylogenesis in histological sections were investigated weekly during the 2013-2015 growing seasons. Our investigation found that timing and duration of xylogenesis varied with canopy position and its associated tree size. Xylogenesis started 6-14 days earlier, and ended 5-11 days later in dominant trees than in suppressed trees, resulting in a significantly longer growing season. Dominant trees also exhibited higher temperature sensitivity of tracheid production rate than suppressed trees. The observed differences in xylogenesis among trees suggested that competition affects tree growth by reducing the growing period in suppressed trees. Representative climate-growth relationships should involve trees of all size classes when evaluating the effects of the environment on forest dynamics. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

GIGA: a simple, efficient algorithm for gene tree inference in the genomic age

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Phylogenetic relationships between genes are not only of theoretical interest: they enable us to learn about human genes through the experimental work on their relatives in numerous model organisms from bacteria to fruit flies and mice. Yet the most commonly used computational algorithms for reconstructing gene trees can be inaccurate for numerous reasons, both algorithmic and biological. Additional information beyond gene sequence data has been shown to improve the accuracy of reconstructions, though at great computational cost. Results We describe a simple, fast algorithm for inferring gene phylogenies, which makes use of information that was not available prior to the genomic age: namely, a reliable species tree spanning much of the tree of life, and knowledge of the complete complement of genes in a species' genome. The algorithm, called GIGA, constructs trees agglomeratively from a distance matrix representation of sequences, using simple rules to incorporate this genomic age information. GIGA makes use of a novel conceptualization of gene trees as being composed of orthologous subtrees (containing only speciation events), which are joined by other evolutionary events such as gene duplication or horizontal gene transfer. An important innovation in GIGA is that, at every step in the agglomeration process, the tree is interpreted/reinterpreted in terms of the evolutionary events that created it. Remarkably, GIGA performs well even when using a very simple distance metric (pairwise sequence differences) and no distance averaging over clades during the tree construction process. Conclusions GIGA is efficient, allowing phylogenetic reconstruction of very large gene families and determination of orthologs on a large scale. It is exceptionally robust to adding more gene sequences, opening up the possibility of creating stable identifiers for referring to not only extant genes, but also their common ancestors. We compared trees produced by GIGA to those in the TreeFam database, and they were very similar in general, with most differences likely due to poor alignment quality. However, some remaining differences are algorithmic, and can be explained by the fact that GIGA tends to put a larger emphasis on minimizing gene duplication and deletion events. PMID:20534164

GIGA: a simple, efficient algorithm for gene tree inference in the genomic age.

PubMed

Thomas, Paul D

2010-06-09

Phylogenetic relationships between genes are not only of theoretical interest: they enable us to learn about human genes through the experimental work on their relatives in numerous model organisms from bacteria to fruit flies and mice. Yet the most commonly used computational algorithms for reconstructing gene trees can be inaccurate for numerous reasons, both algorithmic and biological. Additional information beyond gene sequence data has been shown to improve the accuracy of reconstructions, though at great computational cost. We describe a simple, fast algorithm for inferring gene phylogenies, which makes use of information that was not available prior to the genomic age: namely, a reliable species tree spanning much of the tree of life, and knowledge of the complete complement of genes in a species' genome. The algorithm, called GIGA, constructs trees agglomeratively from a distance matrix representation of sequences, using simple rules to incorporate this genomic age information. GIGA makes use of a novel conceptualization of gene trees as being composed of orthologous subtrees (containing only speciation events), which are joined by other evolutionary events such as gene duplication or horizontal gene transfer. An important innovation in GIGA is that, at every step in the agglomeration process, the tree is interpreted/reinterpreted in terms of the evolutionary events that created it. Remarkably, GIGA performs well even when using a very simple distance metric (pairwise sequence differences) and no distance averaging over clades during the tree construction process. GIGA is efficient, allowing phylogenetic reconstruction of very large gene families and determination of orthologs on a large scale. It is exceptionally robust to adding more gene sequences, opening up the possibility of creating stable identifiers for referring to not only extant genes, but also their common ancestors. We compared trees produced by GIGA to those in the TreeFam database, and they were very similar in general, with most differences likely due to poor alignment quality. However, some remaining differences are algorithmic, and can be explained by the fact that GIGA tends to put a larger emphasis on minimizing gene duplication and deletion events.

CASSIA--a dynamic model for predicting intra-annual sink demand and interannual growth variation in Scots pine.

PubMed

Schiestl-Aalto, Pauliina; Kulmala, Liisa; Mäkinen, Harri; Nikinmaa, Eero; Mäkelä, Annikki

2015-04-01

The control of tree growth vs environment by carbon sources or sinks remains unresolved although it is widely studied. This study investigates growth of tree components and carbon sink-source dynamics at different temporal scales. We constructed a dynamic growth model 'carbon allocation sink source interaction' (CASSIA) that calculates tree-level carbon balance from photosynthesis, respiration, phenology and temperature-driven potential structural growth of tree organs and dynamics of stored nonstructural carbon (NSC) and their modifying influence on growth. With the model, we tested hypotheses that sink demand explains the intra-annual growth dynamics of the meristems, and that the source supply is further needed to explain year-to-year growth variation. The predicted intra-annual dimensional growth of shoots and needles and the number of cells in xylogenesis phases corresponded with measurements, whereas NSC hardly limited the growth, supporting the first hypothesis. Delayed GPP influence on potential growth was necessary for simulating the yearly growth variation, indicating also at least an indirect source limitation. CASSIA combines seasonal growth and carbon balance dynamics with long-term source dynamics affecting growth and thus provides a first step to understanding the complex processes regulating intra- and interannual growth and sink-source dynamics. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Branch-and-Bound algorithm applied to uncertainty quantification of a Boiling Water Reactor Station Blackout

DOE PAGES

Nielsen, Joseph; Tokuhiro, Akira; Hiromoto, Robert; ...

2015-11-13

Evaluation of the impacts of uncertainty and sensitivity in modeling presents a significant set of challenges in particular to high fidelity modeling. Computational costs and validation of models creates a need for cost effective decision making with regards to experiment design. Experiments designed to validate computation models can be used to reduce uncertainty in the physical model. In some cases, large uncertainty in a particular aspect of the model may or may not have a large impact on the final results. For example, modeling of a relief valve may result in large uncertainty, however, the actual effects on final peakmore » clad temperature in a reactor transient may be small and the large uncertainty with respect to valve modeling may be considered acceptable. Additionally, the ability to determine the adequacy of a model and the validation supporting it should be considered within a risk informed framework. Low fidelity modeling with large uncertainty may be considered adequate if the uncertainty is considered acceptable with respect to risk. In other words, models that are used to evaluate the probability of failure should be evaluated more rigorously with the intent of increasing safety margin. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques have traditionally been used to identify accident conditions and transients. Traditional classical event tree methods utilize analysts’ knowledge and experience to identify the important timing of events in coordination with thermal-hydraulic modeling. These methods lack the capability to evaluate complex dynamic systems. In these systems, time and energy scales associated with transient events may vary as a function of transition times and energies to arrive at a different physical state. Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methods provide a more rigorous analysis of complex dynamic systems. Unfortunately DPRA methods introduce issues associated with combinatorial explosion of states. This study presents a methodology to address combinatorial explosion using a Branch-and-Bound algorithm applied to Dynamic Event Trees (DET), which utilize LENDIT (L – Length, E – Energy, N – Number, D – Distribution, I – Information, and T – Time) as well as a set theory to describe system, state, resource, and response (S2R2) sets to create bounding functions for the DET. The optimization of the DET in identifying high probability failure branches is extended to create a Phenomenological Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) methodology to evaluate modeling parameters important to safety of those failure branches that have a high probability of failure. The PIRT can then be used as a tool to identify and evaluate the need for experimental validation of models that have the potential to reduce risk. Finally, in order to demonstrate this methodology, a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Station Blackout (SBO) case study is presented.« less

A predictive model of nuclear power plant crew decision-making and performance in a dynamic simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coyne, Kevin Anthony

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities.

Drought-associated tree mortality: Global patterns and insights from tree-ring studies in the southwestern U.S.A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macalady, Alison Kelly

Forests play an important role in the earth system, regulating climate, maintaining biodiversity, and provisioning human communities with water, food and fuel. Interactions between climate and forest dynamics are not well constrained, and high uncertainty characterizes projections of global warming impacts on forests and associated ecosystem services. Recently observed tree mortality and forest die-off forewarn an acceleration of forest change with rising temperature and increased drought. However, the processes leading to tree death during drought are poorly understood, limiting our ability to anticipate future forest dynamics. The objective of this dissertation was to improve understanding of drought-associated tree mortality through literature synthesis and tree-ring studies on trees that survived and died during droughts in the southwestern USA. Specifically, this dissertation 1) documented global tree mortality patterns and identified emerging trends and research gaps; 2) quantified relationships between growth, climate, competition and mortality of pinon pine during droughts in New Mexico; 3) investigated tree defense anatomy as a potentially key element in pinon avoidance of death; and, 4) characterized the climate sensitivity of pinon resin ducts in order to gain insight into potential trends in tree defenses with climate variability and change. There has been an increase in studies reporting tree mortality linked to drought, heat, and the associated activity of insects and pathogens. Cases span the forested continents and occurred in water, light and temperature-limited forests. We hypothesized that increased tree mortality may be an emerging global phenomenon related to rising temperatures and drought (Appendix A). Recent radial growth was 53% higher on average in pinon that survived versus died during two episodes of drought-associated mortality, and statistical models of mortality risk based on average growth, growth variability, and abrupt growth changes correctly classified the status of ˜70% of trees. Climate responses and competitive interactions partly explained growth differences between dying and surviving trees, with muted response to wet/cool conditions and enhanced sensitivity to competition from congeners linked to growth patterns associated with death. Discrimination and validation of models of mortality risk varied widely across sites and drought events, indicating shifting growth-mortality relationships and differences in mortality processes across space and time (Appendix B). Pre-formed defense anatomy is strongly associated with pinon survivorship over a range of sites and stand conditions. Models of mortality risk that account for both growth and resin duct attributes had ≈10 19 more support than models that contained only growth. The greatest improvement in classification was among trees from the 2000s drought, suggesting an enhanced role for tree defense allocation and/or bark beetle activity during recent warm versus historic cool drought. Accounting for defense characteristics and growth-defense allocation is likely to be important for improving representation of drought-associated mortality (Appendix C). Pinon resin duct chronologies contain climate responses that are coherent and distinct from those of radial growth. Growth responds positively and strongly to previous fall and current winter precipitation, and negatively to late spring and early summer temperature. A relatively equal positive resin duct response to winter precipitation and positive response to mid-to-late summer drought suggests that changes in climate will affect tree defense anatomy in complex ways, with the outcome determined by seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature (Appendix D).

Object-oriented fault tree evaluation program for quantitative analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

1988-01-01

Object-oriented programming can be combined with fault free techniques to give a significantly improved environment for evaluating the safety and reliability of large complex systems for space missions. Deep knowledge about system components and interactions, available from reliability studies and other sources, can be described using objects that make up a knowledge base. This knowledge base can be interrogated throughout the design process, during system testing, and during operation, and can be easily modified to reflect design changes in order to maintain a consistent information source. An object-oriented environment for reliability assessment has been developed on a Texas Instrument (TI) Explorer LISP workstation. The program, which directly evaluates system fault trees, utilizes the object-oriented extension to LISP called Flavors that is available on the Explorer. The object representation of a fault tree facilitates the storage and retrieval of information associated with each event in the tree, including tree structural information and intermediate results obtained during the tree reduction process. Reliability data associated with each basic event are stored in the fault tree objects. The object-oriented environment on the Explorer also includes a graphical tree editor which was modified to display and edit the fault trees.

Impacts of insect disturbance on the structure, composition, and functioning of oak-pine forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvigy, D.; Schafer, K. V.; Clark, K. L.

2011-12-01

Episodic disturbance is an essential feature of terrestrial ecosystems, and strongly modulates their structure, composition, and functioning. However, dynamic global vegetation models that are commonly used to make ecosystem and terrestrial carbon budget predictions rarely have an explicit representation of disturbance. One reason why disturbance is seldom included is that disturbance tends to operate on spatial scales that are much smaller than typical model resolutions. In response to this problem, the Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was developed as a way of tracking the fine-scale heterogeneity arising from disturbances. In this study, we used ED2 to simulate an oak-pine forest that experiences episodic defoliation by gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L). The model was carefully calibrated against site-level data, and then used to simulate changes in ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning on century time scales. Compared to simulations that include gypsy moth defoliation, we show that simulations that ignore defoliation events lead to much larger ecosystem carbon stores and a larger fraction of deciduous trees relative to evergreen trees. Furthermore, we find that it is essential to preserve the fine-scale nature of the disturbance. Attempts to "smooth out" the defoliation event over an entire grid cells led to large biases in ecosystem structure and functioning.

A Passive System Reliability Analysis for a Station Blackout

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunett, Acacia; Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David

2015-05-03

The latest iterations of advanced reactor designs have included increased reliance on passive safety systems to maintain plant integrity during unplanned sequences. While these systems are advantageous in reducing the reliance on human intervention and availability of power, the phenomenological foundations on which these systems are built require a novel approach to a reliability assessment. Passive systems possess the unique ability to fail functionally without failing physically, a result of their explicit dependency on existing boundary conditions that drive their operating mode and capacity. Argonne National Laboratory is performing ongoing analyses that demonstrate various methodologies for the characterization of passivemore » system reliability within a probabilistic framework. Two reliability analysis techniques are utilized in this work. The first approach, the Reliability Method for Passive Systems, provides a mechanistic technique employing deterministic models and conventional static event trees. The second approach, a simulation-based technique, utilizes discrete dynamic event trees to treat time- dependent phenomena during scenario evolution. For this demonstration analysis, both reliability assessment techniques are used to analyze an extended station blackout in a pool-type sodium fast reactor (SFR) coupled with a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). This work demonstrates the entire process of a passive system reliability analysis, including identification of important parameters and failure metrics, treatment of uncertainties and analysis of results.« less

Succession, climate, and neighborhood dynamics influence tree growth over time: an 87-year record of change in a Pinus resinosa (Aiton)-dominated forest, Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

Miranda T. Curzon; Anthony W. D' Amato; Shawn Fraver; Emily S. Huff; Brian J. Palik

2016-01-01

Resource availability and its influence on tree-to-tree interactions are expected to change over the course of forest stand development, but the rarity of long-term datasets has limited examinations of neighborhood crowding over extended time periods. How do a history of neighborhood interactions and population-level dynamics, including demographic transition, impact...

Trees wanted--dead or alive! Host selection and population dynamics in tree-killing bark beetles.

PubMed

Kausrud, Kyrre L; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Skarpaas, Olav; Erbilgin, Nadir; Gilbert, Marius; Økland, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2011-01-01

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) feed and breed in dead or severely weakened host trees. When their population densities are high, some species aggregate on healthy host trees so that their defences may be exhausted and the inner bark successfully colonized, killing the tree in the process. Here we investigate under what conditions participating with unrelated conspecifics in risky mass attacks on living trees is an adaptive strategy, and what this can tell us about bark beetle outbreak dynamics. We find that the outcome of individual host selection may deviate from the ideal free distribution in a way that facilitates the emergence of tree-killing (aggressive) behavior, and that any heritability on traits governing aggressiveness seems likely to exist in a state of flux or cycles consistent with variability observed in natural populations. This may have implications for how economically and ecologically important species respond to environmental changes in climate and landscape (forest) structure. The population dynamics emerging from individual behavior are complex, capable of switching between "endemic" and "epidemic" regimes spontaneously or following changes in host availability or resistance. Model predictions are compared to empirical observations, and we identify some factors determining the occurrence and self-limitation of epidemics.

Secure Access Control and Large Scale Robust Representation for Online Multimedia Event Detection

PubMed Central

Liu, Changyu; Li, Huiling

2014-01-01

We developed an online multimedia event detection (MED) system. However, there are a secure access control issue and a large scale robust representation issue when we want to integrate traditional event detection algorithms into the online environment. For the first issue, we proposed a tree proxy-based and service-oriented access control (TPSAC) model based on the traditional role based access control model. Verification experiments were conducted on the CloudSim simulation platform, and the results showed that the TPSAC model is suitable for the access control of dynamic online environments. For the second issue, inspired by the object-bank scene descriptor, we proposed a 1000-object-bank (1000OBK) event descriptor. Feature vectors of the 1000OBK were extracted from response pyramids of 1000 generic object detectors which were trained on standard annotated image datasets, such as the ImageNet dataset. A spatial bag of words tiling approach was then adopted to encode these feature vectors for bridging the gap between the objects and events. Furthermore, we performed experiments in the context of event classification on the challenging TRECVID MED 2012 dataset, and the results showed that the robust 1000OBK event descriptor outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches. PMID:25147840

Replicated throughfall exclusion experiment in an Indonesian perhumid rainforest: wood production, litter fall and fine root growth under simulated drought.

PubMed

Moser, Gerald; Schuldt, Bernhard; Hertel, Dietrich; Horna, Viviana; Coners, Heinz; Barus, Henry; Leuschner, Christoph

2014-05-01

Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and duration of ENSO-related droughts for parts of South-East Asia until the end of this century exposing the remaining rainforests to increasing drought risk. A pan-tropical review of recorded drought-related tree mortalities in more than 100 monitoring plots before, during and after drought events suggested a higher drought-vulnerability of trees in South-East Asian than in Amazonian forests. Here, we present the results of a replicated (n = 3 plots) throughfall exclusion experiment in a perhumid tropical rainforest in Sulawesi, Indonesia. In this first large-scale roof experiment outside semihumid eastern Amazonia, 60% of the throughfall was displaced during the first 8 months and 80% during the subsequent 17 months, exposing the forest to severe soil desiccation for about 17 months. In the experiment's second year, wood production decreased on average by 40% with largely different responses of the tree families (ranging from -100 to +100% change). Most sensitive were trees with high radial growth rates under moist conditions. In contrast, tree height was only a secondary factor and wood specific gravity had no influence on growth sensitivity. Fine root biomass was reduced by 35% after 25 months of soil desiccation while fine root necromass increased by 250% indicating elevated fine root mortality. Cumulative aboveground litter production was not significantly reduced in this period. The trees from this Indonesian perhumid rainforest revealed similar responses of wood and litter production and root dynamics as those in two semihumid Amazonian forests subjected to experimental drought. We conclude that trees from paleo- or neotropical forests growing in semihumid or perhumid climates may not differ systematically in their growth sensitivity and vitality under sublethal drought stress. Drought vulnerability may depend more on stem cambial activity in moist periods than on tree height or wood specific gravity. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forest dynamics and its driving forces of sub-tropical forest in South China.

PubMed

Ma, Lei; Lian, Juyu; Lin, Guojun; Cao, Honglin; Huang, Zhongliang; Guan, Dongsheng

2016-03-04

Tree mortality and recruitment are key factors influencing forest dynamics, but the driving mechanisms of these processes remain unclear. To better understand these driving mechanisms, we studied forest dynamics over a 5-year period in a 20-ha sub-tropical forest in the Dinghushan Nature Reserve, South China. The goal was to identify determinants of tree mortality/recruitment at the local scale using neighborhood analyses on some locally dominant tree species. Results show that the study plot was more dynamic than some temperate and tropical forests in a comparison to large, long-term forest dynamics plots. Over the 5-year period, mortality rates ranged from 1.67 to 12.33% per year while recruitment rates ranged from 0 to 20.26% per year. Tree size had the most consistent effect on mortality across species. Recruitment into the ≥1-cm size class consistently occurred where local con-specific density was high. This suggests that recruitment may be limited by seed dispersal. Hetero-specific individuals also influenced recruitment significantly for some species. Canopy species had low recruitment into the ≥1-cm size class over the 5-year period. In conclusion, tree mortality and recruitment for sixteen species in this plot was likely limited by seed dispersal and density-dependence.

Simulation of Tsunami Resistance of a Pinus Thunbergii tree in Coastal Forest in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanko, K.; Suzuki, S.; Noguchi, H.; Hagino, H.

2015-12-01

Forests reduce fluid force of tsunami, whereas extreme tsunami sometimes breaks down the forest trees. It is difficult to estimate the interactive relationship between the fluid and the trees because fluid deform tree architecture and deformed tree changes flow field. Dynamic tree deformation and fluid behavior should be clarified by fluid-structure interaction analysis. For the initial step, we have developed dynamic simulation of tree sway and breakage caused by tsunami based on a vibrating system with multiple degrees of freedom. The target specie of the simulation was Japanese black pine (pinus thunbergii), which is major specie in the coastal forest to secure livelihood area from the damage by blown sand and salt in Japanese coastal area. For the simulation, a tree was segmented into 0.2 m long circular truncated cones. Turning moment induced by tsunami and self-weight was calculated at each segment bottom. Tree deformation was computed on multi-degree-of-freedom vibration equation. Tree sway was simulated by iterative calculation of the tree deformation with time step 0.05 second with temporally varied flow velocity of tsunami. From the calculation of bending stress and turning moment at tree base, we estimated resistance of a Pinus thunbergii tree from tsunami against tree breakage.

A Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Reconstruction in the Taihe Mountains Using Tree-Ring Widths for the Last 283 Years.

PubMed

Ma, Yongyong; Liu, Yu; Song, Huiming; Sun, Junyan; Lei, Ying; Wang, Yanchao

2015-01-01

Tree-ring samples from Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) that were collected in the Taihe Mountains on the western Loess Plateau, China, were used to analyze the effects of climate and drought on radial growth and to reconstruct the mean April-June Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) during the period 1730-2012 AD. Precipitation positively affected tree growth primarily during wet seasons, while temperature negatively affected tree growth during dry seasons. Tree growth responded positively to SPEI at long time scales most likely because the trees were able to withstand water deficits but lacked a rapid response to drought. The 10-month scale SPEI was chosen for further drought reconstruction. A calibration model for the period 1951-2011 explained 51% of the variance in the modeled SPEI data. Our SPEI reconstruction revealed long-term patterns of drought variability and captured some significant drought events, including the severe drought of 1928-1930 and the clear drying trend since the 1950s which were widespread across northern China. The reconstruction was also consistent with two other reconstructions on the western Loess Plateau at both interannual and decadal scales. The reconstructed SPEI series showed synchronous variations with the drought/wetness indices and spatial correlation analyses indicated that this reconstruction could be representative of large-scale SPEI variability in northern China. Period analysis discovered 128-year, 25-year, 2.62-year, 2.36-year, and 2.04-year cycles in this reconstruction. The time-dependency of the growth response to drought should be considered in further studies of the community dynamics. The SPEI reconstruction improves the sparse network of long-term climate records for an enhanced understanding of climatic variability on the western Loess Plateau, China.

Persisting soil drought reduces leaf specific conductivity in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens).

PubMed

Sterck, Frank J; Zweifel, Roman; Sass-Klaassen, Ute; Chowdhury, Qumruzzaman

2008-04-01

Leaf specific conductivity (LSC; the ratio of stem conductivity (K(P)) to leaf area (A(L))), a measure of the hydraulic capacity of the stem to supply leaves with water, varies with soil water content. Empirical evidence for LSC responses to drought is ambiguous, because previously published results were subject to many confounding factors. We tested how LSC of similar-sized trees of the same population, under similar climatic conditions, responds to persistently wet or dry soil. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) trees were compared between a dry site and a wet site in the Valais, an inner alpine valley in Switzerland. Soil water strongly influenced A(L) and K(P) and the plant components affecting K(P), such as conduit radius, conduit density and functional sapwood area. Trees at the dry site had lower LSC than trees with the same stem diameter at the wet site. Low LSC in trees at the dry site was associated with a smaller functional sapwood area and narrower conduits, resulting in a stronger reduction in K(P) than in A(L). These observations support the hypothesis that trees maintain a homeostatic water pressure gradient. An alternative hypothesis is that relatively high investments in leaves compared with sapwood contribute to carbon gain over an entire season by enabling rapid whole-plant photosynthesis during periods of high water availability (e.g., in spring, after rain events and during morning hours when leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit is small). Dynamic data and a hydraulic plant growth model are needed to test how investments in leaves versus sapwood and roots contribute to transpiration and to maximizing carbon gain throughout entire growth seasons.

A Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Reconstruction in the Taihe Mountains Using Tree-Ring Widths for the Last 283 Years

PubMed Central

Ma, Yongyong; Liu, Yu; Song, Huiming; Sun, Junyan; Lei, Ying; Wang, Yanchao

2015-01-01

Tree-ring samples from Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) that were collected in the Taihe Mountains on the western Loess Plateau, China, were used to analyze the effects of climate and drought on radial growth and to reconstruct the mean April-June Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) during the period 1730–2012 AD. Precipitation positively affected tree growth primarily during wet seasons, while temperature negatively affected tree growth during dry seasons. Tree growth responded positively to SPEI at long time scales most likely because the trees were able to withstand water deficits but lacked a rapid response to drought. The 10-month scale SPEI was chosen for further drought reconstruction. A calibration model for the period 1951–2011 explained 51% of the variance in the modeled SPEI data. Our SPEI reconstruction revealed long-term patterns of drought variability and captured some significant drought events, including the severe drought of 1928–1930 and the clear drying trend since the 1950s which were widespread across northern China. The reconstruction was also consistent with two other reconstructions on the western Loess Plateau at both interannual and decadal scales. The reconstructed SPEI series showed synchronous variations with the drought/wetness indices and spatial correlation analyses indicated that this reconstruction could be representative of large-scale SPEI variability in northern China. Period analysis discovered 128-year, 25-year, 2.62-year, 2.36-year, and 2.04-year cycles in this reconstruction. The time-dependency of the growth response to drought should be considered in further studies of the community dynamics. The SPEI reconstruction improves the sparse network of long-term climate records for an enhanced understanding of climatic variability on the western Loess Plateau, China. PMID:26207621

Drought-influenced mortality of tree species with different predawn leaf water dynamics in a decade-long study of a central US forest

DOE PAGES

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Hosman, K. P.; ...

2015-05-18

Abstract. Using decade-long continuous observations of tree mortality and predawn leaf water potential (ψpd) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, we studied how the mortality of important tree species varied and how such variations may be predicted. Water stress determined inter-annual variations in tree mortality with a time delay of 1 year or more, which was correlated fairly tightly with a number of quantitative predictors formulated based on ψpd and precipitation regimes. Predictors based on temperature and vapor pressure deficit anomalies worked reasonably well, particularly for moderate droughts. The exceptional drought of the year 2012 drastically increased the mortalitymore » of all species, including drought-tolerant oaks, in the subsequent year. The drought-influenced tree mortality was related to the species position along the spectrum of ψ pd regulation capacity with those in either ends of the spectrum being associated with elevated risk of death. Regardless of species and drought intensity, the ψpd of all species recovered rapidly after sufficiently intense rain events in all droughts. This result, together with a lack of immediate leaf and branch desiccation, suggests an absence of catastrophic hydraulic disconnection in the xylem and that tree death was caused by significant but indirect effects. Species differences in the capacity of regulating ψ pd and its temporal integral were magnified under moderate drought intensities but diminished towards wet and dry extremes. Severe droughts may overwhelm the capacity of even drought-tolerant species to maintain differential levels of water potential as the soil becomes exhausted of available water in the rooting zone, thus rendering them more susceptible to death if predisposed by other factors such as age.« less

Drought-influenced mortality of tree species with different predawn leaf water dynamics in a decade-long study of a central US forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Hosman, K. P.

Abstract. Using decade-long continuous observations of tree mortality and predawn leaf water potential (ψpd) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, we studied how the mortality of important tree species varied and how such variations may be predicted. Water stress determined inter-annual variations in tree mortality with a time delay of 1 year or more, which was correlated fairly tightly with a number of quantitative predictors formulated based on ψpd and precipitation regimes. Predictors based on temperature and vapor pressure deficit anomalies worked reasonably well, particularly for moderate droughts. The exceptional drought of the year 2012 drastically increased the mortalitymore » of all species, including drought-tolerant oaks, in the subsequent year. The drought-influenced tree mortality was related to the species position along the spectrum of ψ pd regulation capacity with those in either ends of the spectrum being associated with elevated risk of death. Regardless of species and drought intensity, the ψpd of all species recovered rapidly after sufficiently intense rain events in all droughts. This result, together with a lack of immediate leaf and branch desiccation, suggests an absence of catastrophic hydraulic disconnection in the xylem and that tree death was caused by significant but indirect effects. Species differences in the capacity of regulating ψ pd and its temporal integral were magnified under moderate drought intensities but diminished towards wet and dry extremes. Severe droughts may overwhelm the capacity of even drought-tolerant species to maintain differential levels of water potential as the soil becomes exhausted of available water in the rooting zone, thus rendering them more susceptible to death if predisposed by other factors such as age.« less

Survey of critical failure events in on-chip interconnect by fault tree analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokogawa, Shinji; Kunii, Kyousuke

2018-07-01

In this paper, a framework based on reliability physics is proposed for adopting fault tree analysis (FTA) to the on-chip interconnect system of a semiconductor. By integrating expert knowledge and experience regarding the possibilities of failure on basic events, critical issues of on-chip interconnect reliability will be evaluated by FTA. In particular, FTA is used to identify the minimal cut sets with high risk priority. Critical events affecting the on-chip interconnect reliability are identified and discussed from the viewpoint of long-term reliability assessment. The moisture impact is evaluated as an external event.

Integrated Network Decompositions and Dynamic Programming for Graph Optimization (INDDGO)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

The INDDGO software package offers a set of tools for finding exact solutions to graph optimization problems via tree decompositions and dynamic programming algorithms. Currently the framework offers serial and parallel (distributed memory) algorithms for finding tree decompositions and solving the maximum weighted independent set problem. The parallel dynamic programming algorithm is implemented on top of the MADNESS task-based runtime.

Demographic analysis of tree colonization in a 20-year-old right-of-way.

PubMed

Mercier, C; Brison, J; Bouchard, A

2001-12-01

Past tree colonization dynamics of a powerline-right-of-way (ROW) corridor in the Haut-Saint-Laurent region of Quebec was studied based on the present age distribution of its tree populations. This colonization study spans 20 years, from 1977 (ROW clearance) to 1996. The sampled quadrats were classified into six vegetation types. Tree colonization dynamics were interpreted in each type, and three distinct patterns were identified. (1) Communities adapted to acidic conditions were heavily colonized by Acer rubrum, at least for the last 12 years. (2) Communities adapted to mesic or to hydric conditions were more intensely colonized in the period 1985-1987 than in the following 9 years; this past success in tree colonization may have been caused by herbicide treatments, which could have facilitated tree establishment by damaging the herbaceous and shrub vegetation. (3) Cattail, vine-raspberry, and reed-dominated communities contained few tree individuals, with almost all trees establishing between 1979 and 1990; those three vegetation types appear as the most resistant to tree invasion in the ROW studied. This study supports the need for an integrated approach in ROW vegetation management, in which the selection of vegetation treatment methods would depend on the tree colonization dynamics in each vegetation type. Minimizing disturbances inflicted on ROW herbaceous and shrub covers should be the central strategy because disturbances jeopardize natural resistance to future tree invasion, except in communities adapted to acidic conditions where the existing vegetation does not prevent invasion by A. rubrum. Many trees are surviving the successive cutting operations by producing new sprouts each time, particularly in communities adapted to mesic and hydric conditions. In these cases, mechanical cutting should be replaced by a one-time stump-killing operation, to avoid repeated and unsuccessful treatments of the same individuals over time.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places.

PubMed

Julio Camarero, J; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-11-01

Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin ('rear edge') of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species' European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern 'rear edge', in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The assessment of low probability containment failure modes using dynamic PRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunett, Acacia Joann

Although low probability containment failure modes in nuclear power plants may lead to large releases of radioactive material, these modes are typically crudely modeled in system level codes and have large associated uncertainties. Conventional risk assessment techniques (i.e. the fault-tree/event-tree methodology) are capable of accounting for these failure modes to some degree, however, they require the analyst to pre-specify the ordering of events, which can vary within the range of uncertainty of the phenomena. More recently, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) techniques have been developed which remove the dependency on the analyst. Through DPRA, it is now possible to perform a mechanistic and consistent analysis of low probability phenomena, with the timing of the possible events determined by the computational model simulating the reactor behavior. The purpose of this work is to utilize DPRA tools to assess low probability containment failure modes and the driving mechanisms. Particular focus is given to the risk-dominant containment failure modes considered in NUREG-1150, which has long been the standard for PRA techniques. More specifically, this work focuses on the low probability phenomena occurring during a station blackout (SBO) with late power recovery in the Zion Nuclear Power Plant, a Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR). Subsequent to the major risk study performed in NUREG-1150, significant experimentation and modeling regarding the mechanisms driving containment failure modes have been performed. In light of this improved understanding, NUREG-1150 containment failure modes are reviewed in this work using the current state of knowledge. For some unresolved mechanisms, such as containment loading from high pressure melt ejection and combustion events, additional analyses are performed using the accident simulation tool MELCOR to explore the bounding containment loads for realistic scenarios. A dynamic treatment in the characterization of combustible gas ignition is also presented in this work. In most risk studies, combustion is treated simplistically in that it is assumed an ignition occurs if the gas mixture achieves a concentration favorable for ignition under the premise that an adequate ignition source is available. However, the criteria affecting ignition (such as the magnitude, location and frequency of the ignition sources) are complicated. This work demonstrates a technique for characterizing the properties of an ignition source to determine a probability of ignition. The ignition model developed in this work and implemented within a dynamic framework is utilized to analyze the implications and risk significance of late combustion events. This work also explores the feasibility of using dynamic event trees (DETs) with a deterministic sampling approach to analyze low probability phenomena. The flexibility of this approach is demonstrated through the rediscretization of containment fragility curves used in construction of the DET to show convergence to a true solution. Such a rediscretization also reduces the computational burden introduced through extremely fine fragility curve discretization by subsequent refinement of fragility curve regions of interest. Another advantage of the approach is the ability to perform sensitivity studies on the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) used to determine branching probabilities without the need for rerunning the simulation code. Through review of the NUREG-1150 containment failure modes using the current state of knowledge, it is found that some failure modes, such as Alpha and rocket, can be excluded from further studies; other failure modes, such as failure to isolate, bypass, high pressure melt ejection (HPME), combustion-induced failure and overpressurization are still concerns to varying degrees. As part of this analysis, scoping studies performed in MELCOR show that HPME and the resulting direct containment heating (DCH) do not impose a significant threat to containment integrity. Additional scoping studies regarding the effect of recovery actions on in-vessel hydrogen generation show that reflooding a partially degraded core do not significantly affect hydrogen generation in-vessel, and the NUREG-1150 assumption that insufficient hydrogen is generated in-vessel to produce an energetic deflagration is confirmed. The DET analyses performed in this work show that very late power recovery produces the potential for very energetic combustion events which are capable of failing containment with a non-negligible probability, and that containment cooling systems have a significant impact on core concrete attack, and therefore combustible gas generation ex-vessel. Ultimately, the overall risk of combustion-induced containment failure is low, but its conditional likelihood can have a significant effect on accident mitigation strategies. It is also shown in this work that DETs are particularly well suited to examine low probability events because of their ability to rediscretize CDFs and observe solution convergence.

In Situ Quantification of Experimental Ice Accretion on Tree Crowns Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning

PubMed Central

Nock, Charles A.; Greene, David; Delagrange, Sylvain; Follett, Matt; Fournier, Richard; Messier, Christian

2013-01-01

In the eastern hardwood forests of North America ice storms are an important disturbance event. Ice storms strongly influence community dynamics as well as urban infrastructure via catastrophic branch failure; further, the severity and frequency of ice storms are likely to increase with climate change. However, despite a long-standing interest into the effects of freezing rain on forests, the process of ice accretion and thus ice loading on branches remains poorly understood. This is because a number of challenges have prevented in situ measurements of ice on branches, including: 1) accessing and measuring branches in tall canopies, 2) limitations to travel during and immediately after events, and 3) the unpredictability of ice storms. Here, utilizing a novel combination of outdoor experimental icing, manual measurements and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), we perform the first in situ measurements of ice accretion on branches at differing heights in a tree crown and with increasing duration of exposure. We found that TLS can reproduce both branch and iced branch diameters with high fidelity, but some TLS instruments do not detect ice. Contrary to the expectations of ice accretion models, radial accretion varied sharply within tree crowns. Initially, radial ice accretion was similar throughout the crown, but after 6.5 hours of irrigation (second scanning) radial ice accretion was much greater on upper branches than on lower (∼factor of 3). The slope of the change in radial ice accretion along branches increased with duration of exposure and was significantly greater at the second scanning compared to the first. We conclude that outdoor icing experiments coupled with the use of TLS provide a robust basis for evaluation of models of ice accretion and breakage in tree crowns, facilitating estimation of the limiting breaking stress of branches by accurate measurements of ice loads. PMID:23741409

Monitoring drought impact on Mediterranean oak savanna vegetation using remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Dugo, Maria P.; Carpintero, Elisabet; Andreu, Ana

2015-04-01

A holm oak savanna, known as dehesa in Spain and montado in Portugal, is the largest agroforest ecosystem in Europe, covering about 3 million hectares in the Iberian Peninsula and Greece (Papanastasis et al., 2004). It is considered an example of sustainable land use, supporting a large number of species and diversity of habitats and for its importance in rural development and economy (Plieninger et al., 2001). It is a combination between an agricultural and a naturally vegetated ecosystem, consisting of widely-spaced oak trees (mostly Quercus Ilex and Quercus suber) combined with a sub-canopy composed by crops, annual grassland and/or shrubs. It has a Mediterranean climate with severe periodic droughts. In the last decades, this system is being exposed to multiple threats derived from socio-economic changes and intensive agricultural use, which have caused environmental degradation, including tree decline, changes in soil properties and hydrological processes, and an increase of soil erosion (Coelho et al., 2004). Soil water dynamics plays a central role in the current decline and reduction of forested areas that jeopardizes the preservation of the system. In this work, a series of remotely sensed images since 1990 to present was used to evaluate the effect of several drought events occurred in the study area (1995, 2009, 2010/2011) on the tree density and water status. Data from satellites Landsat and field measurements have been combined in a spectral mixture model to assess separately the evolution of tree, dry grass and bare soil ground coverage. Only summer images have been used to avoid the influence of the green herbaceous layer on the analysis. Thermal data from the same sensors and meteorological information are integrated in a two source surface energy balance model to compute the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and evaluate the vegetation water status. The results have provided insights about the severity of each event and the spatial distribution of their impacts.

Vegetation optical depth measured by microwave radiometry as an indicator of tree mortality risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, K.; Anderegg, W.; Sala, A.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.; Konings, A. G.

2017-12-01

Increased drought-related tree mortality has been observed across several regions in recent years. Vast spatial extent and high temporal variability makes field monitoring of tree mortality cumbersome and expensive. With global coverage and high temporal revisit, satellite remote sensing offers an unprecedented tool to monitor terrestrial ecosystems and identify areas at risk of large drought-driven tree mortality events. To date, studies that use remote sensing data to monitor tree mortality have focused on external climatic thresholds such as temperature and evapotranspiration. However, this approach fails to consider internal water stress in vegetation - which can vary across trees even for similar climatic conditions due to differences in hydraulic behavior, soil type, etc - and may therefore be a poor basis for measuring mortality events. There is a consensus that xylem hydraulic failure often precedes drought-induced mortality, suggesting depleted canopy water content shortly before onset of mortality. Observations of vegetation optical depth (VOD) derived from passive microwave are proportional to canopy water content. In this study, we propose to use variations in VOD as an indicator of potential tree mortality. Since VOD accounts for intrinsic water stress undergone by vegetation, it is expected to be more accurate than external climatic stress indicators. Analysis of tree mortality events in California, USA observed by airborne detection shows a consistent relationship between mortality and the proposed VOD metric. Although this approach is limited by the kilometer-scale resolution of passive microwave radiometry, our results nevertheless demonstrate that microwave-derived estimates of vegetation water content can be used to study drought-driven tree mortality, and may be a valuable tool for mortality predictions if they can be combined with higher-resolution variables.

Regional Population Dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

Fault-Tree Compiler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Boerschlein, David P.

1993-01-01

Fault-Tree Compiler (FTC) program, is software tool used to calculate probability of top event in fault tree. Gates of five different types allowed in fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. High-level input language easy to understand and use. In addition, program supports hierarchical fault-tree definition feature, which simplifies tree-description process and reduces execution time. Set of programs created forming basis for reliability-analysis workstation: SURE, ASSIST, PAWS/STEM, and FTC fault-tree tool (LAR-14586). Written in PASCAL, ANSI-compliant C language, and FORTRAN 77. Other versions available upon request.

Fault-Tree Compiler Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Martensen, Anna L.

1992-01-01

FTC, Fault-Tree Compiler program, is reliability-analysis software tool used to calculate probability of top event of fault tree. Five different types of gates allowed in fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. High-level input language of FTC easy to understand and use. Program supports hierarchical fault-tree-definition feature simplifying process of description of tree and reduces execution time. Solution technique implemented in FORTRAN, and user interface in Pascal. Written to run on DEC VAX computer operating under VMS operating system.

Demographic drivers of tree biomass change during secondary succession in northeastern Costa Rica.

PubMed

Rozendaal, Danae M A; Chazdon, Robin L

2015-03-01

Second-growth tropical forests are an important global carbon sink. As current knowledge on biomass accumulation during secondary succession is heavily based on chronosequence studies, direct estimates of annual rates of biomass accumulation in monitored stands are largely unavailable. We evaluated the contributions of tree diameter increment, recruitment, and mortality to annual tree biomass change during succession for three groups of tree species: second-growth (SG) specialists, generalists, and old-growth (OG) specialists. We monitored six second-growth tropical forests that varied in stand age and two old-growth forests in northeastern Costa Rica. We monitored these over a period of 8 to 16 years. To assess rates of biomass change during secondary succession, we compared standing biomass and biomass dynamics between second-growth forest stages and old-growth forest, and evaluated the effect of stand age on standing biomass and biomass dynamics in second-growth forests. Standing tree biomass increased with stand age during succession, whereas the rate of biomass change decreased. Biomass change was largely driven by tree diameter increment and mortality, with a minor contribution from recruitment. The relative importance of these demographic drivers shifted over succession. Biomass gain due to tree diameter increment decreased with stand age, whereas biomass loss due to mortality increased. In the age range of our second-growth forests, 10-41 years, SG specialists dominated tree biomass in second-growth forests. SG specialists, and to a lesser extent generalists, also dominated stand-level biomass increase due to tree diameter increment, whereas SG specialists largely accounted for decreases in biomass due to mortality. Our results indicate that tree growth is largely driving biomass dynamics early in succession, whereas both growth and mortality are important later in succession. Biomass dynamics are largely accounted for by a few SG specialists and one generalist species, Pentaclethra macroloba. To assess the generality of our results, similar long-term studies should be compared across tropical forest landscapes.

Risk Analysis of Return Support Material on Gas Compressor Platform Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvianita; Aulia, B. U.; Khakim, M. L. N.; Rosyid, Daniel M.

2017-07-01

On a fixed platforms project are not only carried out by a contractor, but two or more contractors. Cooperation in the construction of fixed platforms is often not according to plan, it is caused by several factors. It takes a good synergy between the contractor to avoid miss communication may cause problems on the project. For the example is about support material (sea fastening, skid shoe and shipping support) used in the process of sending a jacket structure to operation place often does not return to the contractor. It needs a systematic method to overcome the problem of support material. This paper analyses the causes and effects of GAS Compressor Platform that support material is not return, using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). From fault tree analysis, the probability of top event is 0.7783. From event tree analysis diagram, the contractors lose Rp.350.000.000, - to Rp.10.000.000.000, -.

Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

2009-09-01

Flash floods are one of the natural hazards that cause major damages worldwide. Especially in Mediterranean areas they provoke high economic losses every year. In mountain areas with high stream gradients, floods events are characterized by extremely high flow and debris transport rates. Flash flood analysis in mountain areas presents specific scientific challenges. On one hand, there is a lack of information on precipitation and discharge due to a lack of spatially well distributed gauge stations with long records. On the other hand, gauge stations may not record correctly during extreme events when they are damaged or the discharge exceeds the recordable level. In this case, no systematic data allows improvement of the understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence of the process. Since historic documentation is normally scarce or even completely missing in mountain areas, tree-ring analysis can provide an alternative approach. Flash floods may influence trees in different ways: (1) tilting of the stem through the unilateral pressure of the flowing mass or individual boulders; (2) root exposure through erosion of the banks; (3) injuries and scars caused by boulders and wood transported in the flow; (4) decapitation of the stem and resulting candelabra growth through the severe impact of boulders; (5) stem burial through deposition of material. The trees react to these disturbances with specific growth changes such as abrupt change of the yearly increment and anatomical changes like reaction wood or callus tissue. In this study, we sampled 90 cross sections and 265 increment cores of trees heavily affected by past flash floods in order to date past events and to reconstruct recurrence intervals in two torrent channels located in the Spanish Central System. The first study site is located along the Pelayo River, a torrent in natural conditions. Based on the external disturbances of trees and their geomorphological position, 114 Pinus pinaster (Ait.) influenced by flash flood events were sampled using an increment borer. For each tree sampled, additional information were recorded including the geographical position (GPS measure), the geomorphological situation based on a detailed geomorphological map, the social position within neighbouring trees, a description of the external disturbances and information on tree diameter, tree height and the position of the cores extracted. 265 cores were collected. In the laboratory, the 265 samples were analyzed using the standard methods: surface preparation, counting of tree rings as well as measuring of ring widths using a digital LINTAB positioning table and TSAP 4.6 software. Increment curves of the disturbed trees were then crossdated with a reference chronology in order to correct faulty tree-ring series derived from disturbed samples and to determine initiation of abrupt growth suppression or release. The age of the trees in this field site is between 50 and 100 years old. In the field most of the trees were tilted (93 %) and showed exposed roots (64 %). In the laboratory, growth suppressions were detected in 165 samples. Based on the number of trees showing disturbances, the intensity of the disturbance and the spatial distribution of the trees in the field, seven well represented events were dated for the last 50 years: 2005, 2000, 1996, 1976, 1973, 1966 and 1963. The second field site was a reach of 2 km length along the Arenal River, where the stream is channelized. Here stumps from previously felled trees could be analyzed directly in the field. 100 Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Fraxinus angustifolia (Vahl.) cross sections were investigated in order to date internal wounds. Different carpenter tools, sanding paper and magnifying glasses were used to count tree rings and to date the wounds in the field. In addition to the dating in the field, 22 cross sections were sampled and analyzed in the laboratory using the standard methods. The age of the trees ranges between 30 and 50 years. Based on the injuries dated in the field and in the laboratory, and based on the location of the trees, 8 main events were dated for the last 30 years: 2005, 2003, 2000, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1993 and 1978. Additional results are in progress, such as the amount of rainfall responsible for the triggering of the events, estimation of the magnitude, and the influence of the channelization in the case of the Arenal River. The strength of Dendrogeomorphology in flood analysis has been demonstrated, especially in areas where the lack of historical documents, rainfall and flow data limits the use of traditional methods.

Energy efficient data representation and aggregation with event region detection in wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Torsha

Unlike conventional networks, wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are limited in power, have much smaller memory buffers, and possess relatively slower processing speeds. These characteristics necessitate minimum transfer and storage of information in order to prolong the network lifetime. In this dissertation, we exploit the spatio-temporal nature of sensor data to approximate the current values of the sensors based on readings obtained from neighboring sensors and itself. We propose a Tree based polynomial REGression algorithm, (TREG) that addresses the problem of data compression in wireless sensor networks. Instead of aggregated data, a polynomial function (P) is computed by the regression function, TREG. The coefficients of P are then passed to achieve the following goals: (i) The sink can get attribute values in the regions devoid of sensor nodes, and (ii) Readings over any portion of the region can be obtained at one time by querying the root of the tree. As the size of the data packet from each tree node to its parent remains constant, the proposed scheme scales very well with growing network density or increased coverage area. Since physical attributes exhibit a gradual change over time, we propose an iterative scheme, UPDATE_COEFF, which obviates the need to perform the regression function repeatedly and uses approximations based on previous readings. Extensive simulations are performed on real world data to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed aggregation algorithm, TREG. Results reveal that for a network density of 0.0025 nodes/m2, a complete binary tree of depth 4 could provide the absolute error to be less than 6%. A data compression ratio of about 0.02 is achieved using our proposed algorithm, which is almost independent of the tree depth. In addition, our proposed updating scheme makes the aggregation process faster while maintaining the desired error bounds. We also propose a Polynomial-based scheme that addresses the problem of Event Region Detection (PERD) for WSNs. When a single event occurs, a child of the tree sends a Flagged Polynomial (FP) to its parent, if the readings approximated by it falls outside the data range defining the existing phenomenon. After the aggregation process is over, the root having the two polynomials, P and FP can be queried for FP (approximating the new event region) instead of flooding the whole network. For multiple such events, instead of computing a polynomial corresponding to each new event, areas with same data range are combined by the corresponding tree nodes and the aggregated coefficients are passed on. Results reveal that a new event can be detected by PERD while error in detection remains constant and is less than a threshold of 10%. As the node density increases, accuracy and delay for event detection are found to remain almost constant, making PERD highly scalable. Whenever an event occurs in a WSN, data is generated by closeby sensors and relaying the data to the base station (BS) make sensors closer to the BS run out of energy at a much faster rate than sensors in other parts of the network. This gives rise to an unequal distribution of residual energy in the network and makes those sensors with lower remaining energy level die at much faster rate than others. We propose a scheme for enhancing network Lifetime using mobile cluster heads (CH) in a WSN. To maintain remaining energy more evenly, some energy-rich nodes are designated as CHs which move in a controlled manner towards sensors rich in energy and data. This eliminates multihop transmission required by the static sensors and thus increases the overall lifetime of the WSN. We combine the idea of clustering and mobile CH to first form clusters of static sensor nodes. A collaborative strategy among the CHs further increases the lifetime of the network. Time taken for transmitting data to the BS is reduced further by making the CHs follow a connectivity strategy that always maintain a connected path to the BS. Spatial correlation of sensor data can be further exploited for dynamic channel selection in Cellular Communication. In such a scenario within a licensed band, wireless sensors can be deployed (each sensor tuned to a frequency of the channel at a particular time) to sense the interference power of the frequency band. In an ideal channel, interference temperature (IT) which is directly proportional to the interference power, can be assumed to vary spatially with the frequency of the sub channel. We propose a scheme for fitting the sub channel frequencies and corresponding ITs to a regression model for calculating the IT of a random sub channel for further analysis of the channel interference at the base station. Our scheme, based on the readings reported by Sensors helps in Dynamic Channel Selection (S-DCS) in extended C-band for assignment to unlicensed secondary users. S-DCS proves to be economic from energy consumption point of view and it also achieves accuracy with error bound within 6.8%. Again, users are assigned empty sub channels without actually probing them, incurring minimum delay in the process. The overall channel throughput is maximized along with fairness to individual users.

Priority Queues for Computer Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinman, Jeffrey S. (Inventor)

1998-01-01

The present invention is embodied in new priority queue data structures for event list management of computer simulations, and includes a new priority queue data structure and an improved event horizon applied to priority queue data structures. ne new priority queue data structure is a Qheap and is made out of linked lists for robust, fast, reliable, and stable event list management and uses a temporary unsorted list to store all items until one of the items is needed. Then the list is sorted, next, the highest priority item is removed, and then the rest of the list is inserted in the Qheap. Also, an event horizon is applied to binary tree and splay tree priority queue data structures to form the improved event horizon for event management.

Try Fault Tree Analysis, a Step-by-Step Way to Improve Organization Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spitzer, Dean

1980-01-01

Fault Tree Analysis, a systems safety engineering technology used to analyze organizational systems, is described. Explains the use of logic gates to represent the relationship between failure events, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and effective use of Fault Tree Analysis. (CT)

Plant competition and the implications for tropical forest carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnitzer, Stefan

2016-04-01

Tropical forests store more than one third of all terrestrial carbon and account for over one third of terrestrial net primary productivity, and thus they are a critical component of the global carbon cycle. Nearly all of the aboveground carbon in tropical forests is held in tree biomass, and long-term carbon fluxes are balanced largely by tree growth and tree death. Therefore, the vast majority of research on tropical forest carbon dynamics has focused on the growth and mortality of canopy trees. By contrast, lianas (woody vines) contribute little biomass relative to trees. However, competition between lianas (woody vines) and trees may result in forest-wide carbon loss if lianas fail to accumulate the carbon that they displace in trees. We tested this hypotheses using a series of large-scale liana-removal studies in the Republic of Panama. We found that lianas limited tree growth and increased tree mortality, thus significantly reducing carbon accumulation in trees. Lianas themselves, however, did not compensate for the carbon that they displaced in trees. Lianas lower the capacity of tropical forests to uptake and store carbon, and the recently observed increases in liana abundance in neotropical forests will likely result in further reductions of carbon uptake.

Pedologic and geomorphic impacts of a tornado blowdown event in a mixed pine-hardwood forest

Treesearch

Jonathan D. Phillips; Daniel A. Marion; Alice V. Turkington

2008-01-01

Biomechanical effects of trees on soils and surface processes may be extensive in forest environments. Two blowdown sites caused by a November 2005 tornado in the Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas allowed a case study examination of bioturbation associated with a specific forest blowdown event, as well as detailed examination of relationships between tree root systems...

A fast bottom-up algorithm for computing the cut sets of noncoherent fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corynen, G.C.

1987-11-01

An efficient procedure for finding the cut sets of large fault trees has been developed. Designed to address coherent or noncoherent systems, dependent events, shared or common-cause events, the method - called SHORTCUT - is based on a fast algorithm for transforming a noncoherent tree into a quasi-coherent tree (COHERE), and on a new algorithm for reducing cut sets (SUBSET). To assure sufficient clarity and precision, the procedure is discussed in the language of simple sets, which is also developed in this report. Although the new method has not yet been fully implemented on the computer, we report theoretical worst-casemore » estimates of its computational complexity. 12 refs., 10 figs.« less

Quasi-Optimal Elimination Trees for 2D Grids with Singularities

DOE PAGES

Paszyńska, A.; Paszyński, M.; Jopek, K.; ...

2015-01-01

We consmore » truct quasi-optimal elimination trees for 2D finite element meshes with singularities. These trees minimize the complexity of the solution of the discrete system. The computational cost estimates of the elimination process model the execution of the multifrontal algorithms in serial and in parallel shared-memory executions. Since the meshes considered are a subspace of all possible mesh partitions, we call these minimizers quasi-optimal. We minimize the cost functionals using dynamic programming. Finding these minimizers is more computationally expensive than solving the original algebraic system. Nevertheless, from the insights provided by the analysis of the dynamic programming minima, we propose a heuristic construction of the elimination trees that has cost O N e log ⁡ N e , where N e is the number of elements in the mesh. We show that this heuristic ordering has similar computational cost to the quasi-optimal elimination trees found with dynamic programming and outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives in our numerical experiments.« less

Quasi-Optimal Elimination Trees for 2D Grids with Singularities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paszyńska, A.; Paszyński, M.; Jopek, K.

We consmore » truct quasi-optimal elimination trees for 2D finite element meshes with singularities. These trees minimize the complexity of the solution of the discrete system. The computational cost estimates of the elimination process model the execution of the multifrontal algorithms in serial and in parallel shared-memory executions. Since the meshes considered are a subspace of all possible mesh partitions, we call these minimizers quasi-optimal. We minimize the cost functionals using dynamic programming. Finding these minimizers is more computationally expensive than solving the original algebraic system. Nevertheless, from the insights provided by the analysis of the dynamic programming minima, we propose a heuristic construction of the elimination trees that has cost O N e log ⁡ N e , where N e is the number of elements in the mesh. We show that this heuristic ordering has similar computational cost to the quasi-optimal elimination trees found with dynamic programming and outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives in our numerical experiments.« less

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought‐induced tree and forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartmann, Henrik; Moura, Catarina; Anderegg, William R. L.; Ruehr, Nadine; Salmon, Yann; Allen, Craig D.; Arndt, Stefan K.; Breshears, David D.; Davi, Hendrik; Galbraith, David; Ruthrof, Katinka X.; Wunder, Jan; Adams, Henry D.; Bloemen, Jasper; Cailleret, Maxime; Cobb, Richard; Gessler, Arthur; Grams, Thorsten E. E.; Jansen, Steven; Kautz, Markus; Lloret, Francisco; O’Brien, Michael

2018-01-01

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die‐off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land–atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die‐off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought‐induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

Coastal fog during summer drought improves the water status of sapling trees more than adult trees in a California pine forest.

PubMed

Baguskas, Sara A; Still, Christopher J; Fischer, Douglas T; D'Antonio, Carla M; King, Jennifer Y

2016-05-01

Fog water inputs can offset seasonal drought in the Mediterranean climate of coastal California and may be critical to the persistence of many endemic plant species. The ability to predict plant species response to potential changes in the fog regime hinges on understanding the ways that fog can impact plant physiological function across life stages. Our study uses a direct metric of water status, namely plant water potential, to understand differential responses of adult versus sapling trees to seasonal drought and fog water inputs. We place these measurements within a water balance framework that incorporates the varying climatic and soil property impacts on water budgets and deficit. We conducted our study at a coastal and an inland site within the largest stand of the regionally endemic bishop pine (Pinus muricata D. Don) on Santa Cruz Island. Our results show conclusively that summer drought negatively affects the water status of sapling more than adult trees and that sapling trees are also more responsive to changes in shallow soil moisture inputs from fog water deposition. Moreover, between the beginning and end of a large, late-season fog drip event, water status increased more for saplings than for adults. Relative to non-foggy conditions, we found that fog water reduces modeled peak water deficit by 80 and 70 % at the inland and coastal sites, respectively. Results from our study inform mechanistically based predictions of how population dynamics of this and other coastal species may be affected by a warmer, drier, and potentially less foggy future.

Investigating xylem embolism formation, refilling and water storage in tree trunks using frequency domain reflectometry.

PubMed

Hao, Guang-You; Wheeler, James K; Holbrook, N Michele; Goldstein, Guillermo

2013-05-01

Trunks of large trees play an important role in whole-plant water balance but technical difficulties have limited most hydraulic research to small stems, leaves, and roots. To investigate the dynamics of water-related processes in tree trunks, such as winter embolism refilling, xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and water storage, volumetric water content (VWC) in the main stem was monitored continuously using frequency domain moisture sensors in adult Betula papyrifera trees from early spring through the beginning of winter. An air injection technique was developed to estimate hydraulic vulnerability of the trunk xylem. Trunk VWC increased in early spring and again in autumn, concurrently with root pressure during both seasons. Diurnal fluctuations and a gradual decrease in trunk VWC through the growing season were observed, which, in combination with VWC increase after significant rainfall events and depletion during periods of high water demand, indicate the importance of stem water storage in both short- and long-term water balance. Comparisons between the trunk air injection results and conventional branch hydraulic vulnerability curves showed no evidence of 'vulnerability segmentation' between the main stem and small branches in B. papyrifera. Measurements of VWC following air injection, together with evidence from air injection and xylem dye perfusion, indicate that embolized vessels can be refilled by active root pressure but not in the absence of root pressure. The precise, continuous, and non-destructive measurement of wood water content using frequency domain sensors provides an ideal way to probe many hydraulic processes in large tree trunks that are otherwise difficult to investigate.

Investigating xylem embolism formation, refilling and water storage in tree trunks using frequency domain reflectometry

PubMed Central

Hao, Guang-You; Wheeler, James K.; Holbrook, N. Michele; Goldstein, Guillermo

2013-01-01

Trunks of large trees play an important role in whole-plant water balance but technical difficulties have limited most hydraulic research to small stems, leaves, and roots. To investigate the dynamics of water-related processes in tree trunks, such as winter embolism refilling, xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and water storage, volumetric water content (VWC) in the main stem was monitored continuously using frequency domain moisture sensors in adult Betula papyrifera trees from early spring through the beginning of winter. An air injection technique was developed to estimate hydraulic vulnerability of the trunk xylem. Trunk VWC increased in early spring and again in autumn, concurrently with root pressure during both seasons. Diurnal fluctuations and a gradual decrease in trunk VWC through the growing season were observed, which, in combination with VWC increase after significant rainfall events and depletion during periods of high water demand, indicate the importance of stem water storage in both short- and long-term water balance. Comparisons between the trunk air injection results and conventional branch hydraulic vulnerability curves showed no evidence of ‘vulnerability segmentation’ between the main stem and small branches in B. papyrifera. Measurements of VWC following air injection, together with evidence from air injection and xylem dye perfusion, indicate that embolized vessels can be refilled by active root pressure but not in the absence of root pressure. The precise, continuous, and non-destructive measurement of wood water content using frequency domain sensors provides an ideal way to probe many hydraulic processes in large tree trunks that are otherwise difficult to investigate. PMID:23585669

No strong evidence for increasing liana abundance in the Myristicaceae of a Neotropical aseasonal rain forest.

PubMed

Smith, James R; Queenborough, Simon A; Alvia, Pablo; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Valencia, Renato

2017-02-01

The "liana dominance hypothesis" posits that lianas are increasing in abundance in tropical forests, thereby potentially reducing tree biomass due to competitive interactions between trees and lianas. This scenario has implications not only for forest ecosystem function and species composition, but also climate change given the mass of carbon stored in tropical trees. In 2003 and 2013, all Myristicaceae trees in the 50-ha Yasuní Forest Dynamics Plot, Ecuador, were surveyed for liana presence and load in their crowns. We tested the hypothesis that the proportion of trees with lianas increased between 2003 and 2013 in line with the liana dominance hypothesis. Contrary to expectations, the total proportion of trees with lianas decreased from 35% to 32%, and when only trees ≥10 cm diameter at breast height were considered liana incidence increased 44-48%. Liana load was dynamic with a large proportion of trees losing or gaining lianas over the 10-yr period; large trees with intermediate liana loads increased in proportion at the expense of those with low and high loads. Lianas also impacted performance: trees with 26-75% crown cover by lianas in 2003 had reduced growth rates of 80% compared to of liana-free trees, and trees with >75% crown cover had 33% the growth rate and a log odds of mortality eight times that of liana-free trees. We suggest that the lack of strong support found for the liana dominance hypothesis is likely due to the aseasonal climate of Yasuní, which limits the competitive advantage lianas maintain over trees during dry seasons due to their efficient capture and use of water. We propose further research of long-term liana dynamics from aseasonal forests is required to determine the generality of the increasing liana dominance hypothesis in Neotropical forests. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Relation between financial market structure and the real economy: comparison between clustering methods.

PubMed

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T

2015-01-01

We quantify the amount of information filtered by different hierarchical clustering methods on correlations between stock returns comparing the clustering structure with the underlying industrial activity classification. We apply, for the first time to financial data, a novel hierarchical clustering approach, the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree and we compare it with other methods including the Linkage and k-medoids. By taking the industrial sector classification of stocks as a benchmark partition, we evaluate how the different methods retrieve this classification. The results show that the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree can outperform other methods, being able to retrieve more information with fewer clusters. Moreover,we show that the economic information is hidden at different levels of the hierarchical structures depending on the clustering method. The dynamical analysis on a rolling window also reveals that the different methods show different degrees of sensitivity to events affecting financial markets, like crises. These results can be of interest for all the applications of clustering methods to portfolio optimization and risk hedging [corrected].

The role of branch architecture in assimilate production and partitioning: the example of apple (Malus domestica)

PubMed Central

Fanwoua, Julienne; Bairam, Emna; Delaire, Mickael; Buck-Sorlin, Gerhard

2014-01-01

Understanding the role of branch architecture in carbon production and allocation is essential to gain more insight into the complex process of assimilate partitioning in fruit trees. This mini review reports on the current knowledge of the role of branch architecture in carbohydrate production and partitioning in apple. The first-order carrier branch of apple illustrates the complexity of branch structure emerging from bud activity events and encountered in many fruit trees. Branch architecture influences carbon production by determining leaf exposure to light and by affecting leaf internal characteristics related to leaf photosynthetic capacity. The dynamics of assimilate partitioning between branch organs depends on the stage of development of sources and sinks. The sink strength of various branch organs and their relative positioning on the branch also affect partitioning. Vascular connections between branch organs determine major pathways for branch assimilate transport. We propose directions for employing a modeling approach to further elucidate the role of branch architecture on assimilate partitioning. PMID:25071813

Relation between Financial Market Structure and the Real Economy: Comparison between Clustering Methods

PubMed Central

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2015-01-01

We quantify the amount of information filtered by different hierarchical clustering methods on correlations between stock returns comparing the clustering structure with the underlying industrial activity classification. We apply, for the first time to financial data, a novel hierarchical clustering approach, the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree and we compare it with other methods including the Linkage and k-medoids. By taking the industrial sector classification of stocks as a benchmark partition, we evaluate how the different methods retrieve this classification. The results show that the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree can outperform other methods, being able to retrieve more information with fewer clusters. Moreover, we show that the economic information is hidden at different levels of the hierarchical structures depending on the clustering method. The dynamical analysis on a rolling window also reveals that the different methods show different degrees of sensitivity to events affecting financial markets, like crises. These results can be of interest for all the applications of clustering methods to portfolio optimization and risk hedging. PMID:25786703

A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmitri; Caudron, Corentin; Marzocchi, Warner; Suparjan

2016-07-01

Although most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000-2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010-2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.

Soil water availability and evaporative demand affect seasonal growth dynamics and use of stored water in co-occurring saplings and mature conifers under drought.

PubMed

Oberhuber, Walter

2017-04-01

High-resolution time series of stem radius variations (SRVs) record fluctuations in tree water status and temporal dynamics of radial growth. The focus of this study was to evaluate the influence of tree size (i.e., saplings vs. mature trees) and soil water availability on SRVs. Dendrometers were installed on Pinus sylvestris at an open xeric site and on Picea abies at a dry-mesic site, and the SRVs of co-occurring saplings and mature trees were analyzed during two consecutive years. The results revealed that irrespective of tree size, radial growth in P. sylvestris occurred in April-May, whereas the main growing period of P. abies was April-June (saplings) and May-June (mature trees). Linear relationships between growth-detrended SRVs (SSRVs) of mature trees vs. saplings and climate-SSRV relationships revealed greater use of water reserves by mature P. abies compared with saplings. This suggests that the strikingly depressed growth of saplings compared with mature P. abies was caused by source limitation, i.e., restricted photosynthesis beneath the dense canopy. In contrast, a tree size effect on the annual increment, SSRV, and climate-SSRV relationships was less obvious in P. sylvestris , indicating comparable water status in mature trees and saplings under an open canopy. The results of this study provided evidence that water availability and a canopy atmosphere can explain differences in temporal dynamics of radial growth and use of stem water reserves among mature trees and saplings.

Thresholds of Disturbance: Land Management Effects on Vegetation and Nitrogen Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-31

Legume 3 18 0.0435 Rhus aromatica Shrub 2 35 0.0002 Aesculus pavia Tree 0 10 0.0198 Celtis sp. Tree 1 30 0.0002 Crataegus sp. Tree 13 62 0.0001...Shrub 37 63 0.0001 Aesculus pavia Tree 0 12 0.0043 Cercis canadensis Tree 0 13 0.0021 Crataegus sp. Tree 22 49 0.0222 Fraxinus americana Tree 0 11... Aesculus pavia Tree 0 15 0.0126 Ilex opaca Tree 0 27 0.0003 Liquidambar styraciflua Tree 18 75 0.0001 Quercus falcata Tree 9 79 0.0001 Quercus

Progress towards the use of publicly available data networks to conduct cross-scale historical reconstructions of carbon dynamics in US Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Landolt, K.; Emanuel, R. E.; Therrell, M. D.; Nagle, N.; Grissino-Mayer, H. D.; Poulter, B.

2016-12-01

Emergent scale properties of water-limited or Dryland ecosystem's carbon flux are unknown at spatial scales from local to global and time scales of 10 - 1000 years or greater. The width of a tree ring is a metric of production that has been correlated with the amount of precipitation. This relationship has been used to reconstruct rainfall and fire histories in the Drylands of the southwestern US. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is globally measured by selected satellite sensors and is highly correlated with the fraction of solar radiation which is absorbed for photosynthesis by plants (FPAR), as well as with vegetation biomass, net primary productivity (NPP), and tree ring width. Publicly available web-based archives of free NDVI and tree ring data exist and have allowed historical temporal reconstructions of carbon dynamics for the past 300 to 500 years. Climate and tree ring databases have been used to spatially reconstruct drought dynamics for the last 500 years in the western US. In 2007, we hypothesized that NDVI and tree ring width could be used to spatially reconstruct carbon dynamics in US Drylands. In 2015, we succeeded with a 300-year historical spatial reconstruction of NPP in California using a Blue Oak tree ring chronology. Online eddy covariance flux tower measures of NPP are well correlated with satellite measures of NPP. This suggests that net ecosystem exchange (NEE = NPP - soil Respiration) could be historically reconstructed across Drylands. Ongoing research includes 1) scaling historical spatial reconstruction to US Drylands, 2) comparing the use of single versus multiple tree ring species (r2 = 68) and 3) use of the eddy flux tower network, remote sensing, and tree ring data to historically spatially reconstruct Dryland NEE.

Post-fire reconstructions of fire intensity from fire severity data: quantifying the role of spatial variability of fire intensity on forest dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Patrick; Oborne, Lisa

2015-04-01

Large, high-intensity fires have direct and long-lasting effects on forest ecosystems and present a serious threat to human life and property. However, even within the most catastrophic fires there is important variability in local-scale intensity that has important ramifications for forest mortality and regeneration. Quantifying this variability is difficult due to the rarity of catastrophic fire events, the extreme conditions at the time of the fires, and their large spatial extent. Instead fire severity is typically measured or estimated from observed patterns of vegetation mortality; however, differences in species- and size-specific responses to fires often makes fire severity a poor proxy for fire intensity. We developed a statistical method using simple, plot-based measurements of individual tree mortality to simultaneously estimate plot-level fire intensity and species-specific mortality patterns as a function of tree size. We applied our approach to an area of forest burned in the catastrophic Black Saturday fires that occurred near Melbourne, Australia, in February 2009. Despite being the most devastating fire in the past 70 years and our plots being located in the area that experienced some of the most intense fires in the 350,000 ha fire complex, we found that the estimated fire intensity was highly variable at multiple spatial scales. All eight tree species in our study differed in their susceptibility to fire-induced mortality, particularly among the largest size classes. We also found that seedling height and species richness of the post-fire seedling communities were both positively correlated with fire intensity. Spatial variability in disturbance intensity has important, but poorly understood, consequences for the short- and long-term dynamics of forests in the wake of catastrophic wildfires. Our study provides a tool to estimate fire intensity after a fire has passed, allowing new opportunities for linking spatial variability in fire intensity to forest ecosystem dynamics.

Simulation of wetlands forest vegetation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phipps, R.L.

1979-01-01

A computer program, SWAMP, was designed to simulate the effects of flood frequency and depth to water table on southern wetlands forest vegetation dynamics. By incorporating these hydrologic characteristics into the model, forest vegetation and vegetation dynamics can be simulated. The model, based on data from the White River National Wildlife Refuge near De Witt, Arkansas, "grows" individual trees on a 20 x 20-m plot taking into account effects on the tree growth of flooding, depth to water table, shade tolerance, overtopping and crowding, and probability of death and reproduction. A potential application of the model is illustrated with simulations of tree fruit production following flood-control implementation and lumbering. ?? 1979.

The fundamental theorem of asset pricing under default and collateral in finite discrete time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Samaniego, Borys; Orrillo, Jaime

2006-08-01

We consider a financial market where time and uncertainty are modeled by a finite event-tree. The event-tree has a length of N, a unique initial node at the initial date, and a continuum of branches at each node of the tree. Prices and returns of J assets are modeled, respectively, by a R2JxR2J-valued stochastic process . In this framework we prove a version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing which applies to defaultable securities backed by exogenous collateral suffering a contingent linear depreciation.

Advances in Estimating Current and Future Effects of Climate and Management on Forest Ecosystem Carbon and Water Dynamics at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.; Still, C. J.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Buotte, P.; Hanson, C. V.

2017-12-01

As we examine the integrated effects of climate variability, atmospheric CO2, and land management actions on terrestrial carbon and water processes within regions, and evaluate mitigation and adaptation options, we want our analysis to be as accurate as possible to reduce the risk of negative impacts from management decisions. The use of global land models at regional scales requires modifications for realistic projections. Model evaluation reveals knowledge and data gaps in species sensitivities to climate extremes and responses to land use change and management actions such as restoration. For example, a combination of sapflux and AmeriFlux tower measurements identifies seasonal shifts in the proportion of water vapor exchange that is due to tree transpiration, as well as changes in tree water-use efficiency associated with climate variation. Thermal measurements from an unmanned aerial system quantify canopy temperatures reached during extreme heat events, as well as tree-to-tree thermal variations, which can be related to transpiration dynamics. Diagnosis of land model performance across climate/vegetation gradients includes the combination of atmospheric CO2/CO/H2O observations from aircraft, a tall tower network, and a mobile platform, combined with inverse modeling. This approach identified an ecoregion where the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) underestimated net ecosystem production by 28%, suggesting model challenges in high productivity forests with high soil nitrogen and deep organic soils. We use land-model output of net ecosystem production, harvest and fire emissions to estimate net ecosystem carbon balance, which is input to a Life-Cycle Assessment of wood product use to estimate net carbon emissions to the atmosphere for harvest scenarios and bioenergy production. Such robust and interdisciplinary approaches are needed to more accurately quantify impacts on ecosystems and "what the atmosphere sees" in terms of greenhouse gas sources and impacts on ecosystems across landscapes and regions.

Large Wood recruitment and transport along a piedmont gravel bed river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picco, Lorenzo; Tonon, Alessia; Ravazzolo, Diego; Aristide Lenzi, Mario

2015-04-01

In recent years an increasing attention has been devoted on Large Wood (LW), focusing to its role and impact along riverine systems. However there is still a lack of knowledge about many aspects of its recruitment and displacement from the vegetated patches (e.g. floodplain and island) of a riverine environment. This research aims to analyse and consider the differences in LW recruitment during a flood event along a reach of a piedmont gravel bed river. The study has been carried out along a 3 km - long study reach located into the middle course of the gravel bed Piave River (North-Eastern Italian Alps). A buffer zone of 20 m - wide was considered along the floodplains and islands. Into this stripe every standing tree, with diameter ≥ 0.10 m, was measured manually (Diameter Breast Height-DBH; Height). Moreover, for each tree the GPS position was recorded and a numbered tag was installed to simplify the post event recovery. In November 2014 an over bankfull flood (Q=1039 m3 s-1; R.I=3.5 years) occurred. Preliminary results shows that 668 trees were recruited during the flood event thanks to both bank erosion processes along the floodplain banks and along the island shores. Analysing the origin, it is possible to define as 401 (60.03 %) trees were recruited from the floodplain, 244 (36.53%) from fluvial islands and, finally, 23 (3.44%) trees were not completely moved into the active channel area and recruited by the flood, but were just uprooted. Thanks to the accurate dendrometric measurements, it has been possible to define the dimensions for both category of LW, recruited from floodplain and island respectively. Looking to the minimum, maximum and mean height detected were defined values of 2.00, 20.00 and 8.98 m, and 2.20, 15.00 and 6.64 m, for floodplain and island, respectively. The DBH show minimum, maximum and mean values of about 0.10, 0.54 and 0.14 m, and 0.10, 0.44 and 0.14 m for floodplain and island, respectively. These dendrometric measurements permitted us to define the input volume of LW from floodplain and island, 75.59 m3 (0.19 m3/tree) and 39.66 m3 (0.16 m3/tree), respectively. It is worth to focus on the greater input of LW from floodplain, due to the recruitment of an higher number of trees and the bigger dimension of these plants. Post flood field survey permitted also to detect the displacement length of recruited trees along the study area, obtaining values of about 2.50 km, that is consistent with similar results obtained in the same study reach. Further analysis will permit to investigate more in detail the LW origin, its displacement and to link it with flood condition and the morphological settings of the study reach. This research is funded within, the University of Padova research Project CPDA149091- "WoodAlp: linking large Wood and morphological dynamics of gravel bed rivers of Eastern Italian Alps"- 2014-16 and the Project "SedAlp: sediment management in Alpine basins, integrating sediment continuum, risk mitigation and hydropower", 83-4-3-AT, in the framework of the European Territorial Cooperation Program "Alpine Space" 2007-13.

Trees Wanted—Dead or Alive! Host Selection and Population Dynamics in Tree-Killing Bark Beetles

PubMed Central

Kausrud, Kyrre L.; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Skarpaas, Olav; Erbilgin, Nadir; Gilbert, Marius; Økland, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) feed and breed in dead or severely weakened host trees. When their population densities are high, some species aggregate on healthy host trees so that their defences may be exhausted and the inner bark successfully colonized, killing the tree in the process. Here we investigate under what conditions participating with unrelated conspecifics in risky mass attacks on living trees is an adaptive strategy, and what this can tell us about bark beetle outbreak dynamics. We find that the outcome of individual host selection may deviate from the ideal free distribution in a way that facilitates the emergence of tree-killing (aggressive) behavior, and that any heritability on traits governing aggressiveness seems likely to exist in a state of flux or cycles consistent with variability observed in natural populations. This may have implications for how economically and ecologically important species respond to environmental changes in climate and landscape (forest) structure. The population dynamics emerging from individual behavior are complex, capable of switching between “endemic” and “epidemic” regimes spontaneously or following changes in host availability or resistance. Model predictions are compared to empirical observations, and we identify some factors determining the occurrence and self-limitation of epidemics. PMID:21647433

Modeling whole-tree carbon assimilation rate using observed transpiration rates and needle sugar carbon isotope ratios.

PubMed

Hu, Jia; Moore, David J P; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A; Burns, Sean P; Monson, Russell K

2010-03-01

*Understanding controls over plant-atmosphere CO(2) exchange is important for quantifying carbon budgets across a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a simple approach to estimate whole-tree CO(2) assimilation rate (A(Tree)) in a subalpine forest ecosystem. *We analysed the carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C) of extracted needle sugars and combined it with the daytime leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit to estimate tree water-use efficiency (WUE). The estimated WUE was then combined with observations of tree transpiration rate (E) using sap flow techniques to estimate A(Tree). Estimates of A(Tree) for the three dominant tree species in the forest were combined with species distribution and tree size to estimate and gross primary productivity (GPP) using an ecosystem process model. *A sensitivity analysis showed that estimates of A(Tree) were more sensitive to dynamics in E than delta(13)C. At the ecosystem scale, the abundance of lodgepole pine trees influenced seasonal dynamics in GPP considerably more than Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir because of its greater sensitivity of E to seasonal climate variation. *The results provide the framework for a nondestructive method for estimating whole-tree carbon assimilation rate and ecosystem GPP over daily-to weekly time scales.

Dominant clonal Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla trees use water more efficiently

Treesearch

Marina Shinkai Gentil Otto; Robert M. Hubbard; Dan Binkley; Jose Luis Stape

2014-01-01

Wood growth in trees depends on the acquisition of resources, and can vary with tree size leading to a variety of stand dynamics. Typically, larger trees obtain more resources and grow faster than smaller trees, but while light has been addressed more often, few case studies have investigated the contributions of water use and water use efficiency (WUE) within stands...

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on resistance versus resilience of Douglas fir to drought.

PubMed

Carnwath, Gunnar; Nelson, Cara

2017-01-01

Significant increases in tree mortality due to drought-induced physiological stress have been documented worldwide. This trend is likely to continue with increased frequency and severity of extreme drought events in the future. Therefore, understanding the factors that influence variability in drought responses among trees will be critical to predicting ecosystem responses to climate change and developing effective management actions. In this study, we used hierarchical mixed-effects models to analyze drought responses of Pseudotsuga menziesii in 20 unmanaged forests stands across a broad range of environmental conditions in northeastern Washington, USA. We aimed to 1) identify the biotic and abiotic attributes most closely associated with the responses of individual trees to drought and 2) quantify the variability in drought responses at different spatial scales. We found that growth rates and competition for resources significantly affected resistance to a severe drought event in 2001: slow-growing trees and trees growing in subordinate canopy positions and/or with more neighbors suffered greater declines in radial growth during the drought event. In contrast, the ability of a tree to return to normal growth when climatic conditions improved (resilience) was unaffected by competition or relative growth rates. Drought responses were significantly influenced by tree age: older trees were more resistant but less resilient than younger trees. Finally, we found differences between resistance and resilience in spatial scale: a significant proportion (approximately 50%) of the variability in drought resistance across the study area was at broad spatial scales (i.e. among different forest types), most likely due to differences in the total amount of precipitation received at different elevations; in contrast, variation in resilience was overwhelmingly (82%) at the level of individual trees within stands and there was no difference in drought resilience among forest types. Our results suggest that for Pseudotsuga menziesii resistance and resilience to drought are driven by different factors and vary at different spatial scales.

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on resistance versus resilience of Douglas fir to drought

PubMed Central

Nelson, Cara

2017-01-01

Significant increases in tree mortality due to drought-induced physiological stress have been documented worldwide. This trend is likely to continue with increased frequency and severity of extreme drought events in the future. Therefore, understanding the factors that influence variability in drought responses among trees will be critical to predicting ecosystem responses to climate change and developing effective management actions. In this study, we used hierarchical mixed-effects models to analyze drought responses of Pseudotsuga menziesii in 20 unmanaged forests stands across a broad range of environmental conditions in northeastern Washington, USA. We aimed to 1) identify the biotic and abiotic attributes most closely associated with the responses of individual trees to drought and 2) quantify the variability in drought responses at different spatial scales. We found that growth rates and competition for resources significantly affected resistance to a severe drought event in 2001: slow-growing trees and trees growing in subordinate canopy positions and/or with more neighbors suffered greater declines in radial growth during the drought event. In contrast, the ability of a tree to return to normal growth when climatic conditions improved (resilience) was unaffected by competition or relative growth rates. Drought responses were significantly influenced by tree age: older trees were more resistant but less resilient than younger trees. Finally, we found differences between resistance and resilience in spatial scale: a significant proportion (approximately 50%) of the variability in drought resistance across the study area was at broad spatial scales (i.e. among different forest types), most likely due to differences in the total amount of precipitation received at different elevations; in contrast, variation in resilience was overwhelmingly (82%) at the level of individual trees within stands and there was no difference in drought resilience among forest types. Our results suggest that for Pseudotsuga menziesii resistance and resilience to drought are driven by different factors and vary at different spatial scales. PMID:28973008

Windthrown trees on the Kings River Ranger District, Sierra National Forest: meteorological aspects

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1986-01-01

Blowdown in shelterwood, sanitation cuts, and other partial cuts on the Kings River Ranger District, Sierra National Forest, are due to Mono winds. Both winter storm and Mono winds were considered as causes of winter blowdown. All evidence, e.g., direction of tree-fall and occurrence of high wind events, point to Mono wind events as the cause of blowdown. Only 12...

Object-Oriented Algorithm For Evaluation Of Fault Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

1992-01-01

Algorithm for direct evaluation of fault trees incorporates techniques of object-oriented programming. Reduces number of calls needed to solve trees with repeated events. Provides significantly improved software environment for such computations as quantitative analyses of safety and reliability of complicated systems of equipment (e.g., spacecraft or factories).

The Imprint of Extreme Climate Events in Century-Long Time Series of Wood Anatomical Traits in High-Elevation Conifers

PubMed Central

Carrer, Marco; Brunetti, Michele; Castagneri, Daniele

2016-01-01

Extreme climate events are of key importance for forest ecosystems. However, both the inherent infrequency, stochasticity and multiplicity of extreme climate events, and the array of biological responses, challenges investigations. To cope with the long life cycle of trees and the paucity of the extreme events themselves, our inferences should be based on long-term observations. In this context, tree rings and the related xylem anatomical traits represent promising sources of information, due to the wide time perspective and quality of the information they can provide. Here we test, on two high-elevation conifers (Larix decidua and Picea abies sampled at 2100 m a.s.l. in the Eastern Alps), the associations among temperature extremes during the growing season and xylem anatomical traits, specifically the number of cells per ring (CN), cell wall thickness (CWT), and cell diameter (CD). To better track the effect of extreme events over the growing season, tree rings were partitioned in 10 sectors. Climate variability has been reconstructed, for 1800–2011 at monthly resolution and for 1926–2011 at daily resolution, by exploiting the excellent availability of very long and high quality instrumental records available for the surrounding area, and taking into account the relationship between meteorological variables and site topographical settings. Summer temperature influenced anatomical traits of both species, and tree-ring anatomical profiles resulted as being associated to temperature extremes. Most of the extreme values in anatomical traits occurred with warm (positive extremes) or cold (negative) conditions. However, 0–34% of occurrences did not match a temperature extreme event. Specifically, CWT and CN extremes were more clearly associated to climate than CD, which presented a bias to track cold extremes. Dendroanatomical analysis, coupled to high-quality daily-resolved climate records, seems a promising approach to study the effects of extreme events on trees, but further investigations are needed to improve our comprehension of the critical role of such elusive events in forest ecosystems. PMID:27242880

Dynamic Load Balancing Based on Constrained K-D Tree Decomposition for Parallel Particle Tracing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiang; Guo, Hanqi; Yuan, Xiaoru

Particle tracing is a fundamental technique in flow field data visualization. In this work, we present a novel dynamic load balancing method for parallel particle tracing. Specifically, we employ a constrained k-d tree decomposition approach to dynamically redistribute tasks among processes. Each process is initially assigned a regularly partitioned block along with duplicated ghost layer under the memory limit. During particle tracing, the k-d tree decomposition is dynamically performed by constraining the cutting planes in the overlap range of duplicated data. This ensures that each process is reassigned particles as even as possible, and on the other hand the newmore » assigned particles for a process always locate in its block. Result shows good load balance and high efficiency of our method.« less

Fuel treatment effects on tree mortality following wildfire in dry mixed conifer forests, Washington State, USA

Treesearch

Susan J. Prichard; Maureen C. Kennedy

2012-01-01

Fuel reduction treatments are increasingly used to mitigate future wildfire severity in dry forests, but few opportunities exist to assess their effectiveness. We evaluated the influence of fuel treatment, tree size and species on tree mortality following a large wildfire event in recent thin-only, thin and prescribed burn (thin-Rx) units. Of the trees that died within...

Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: Insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient

Treesearch

Michael J. Clifford; Patrick D. Royer; Neil S. Cobb; David D. Breshears; Paulette L. Ford

2013-01-01

Recent regional tree die-off events appear to have been triggered by a combination of drought and heat - referred to as 'global-change-type drought'. To complement experiments focused on resolving mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality, an evaluation of how patterns of tree die-off relate to highly spatially variable precipitation is needed....

Vegetation as a tool in the interpretation of fluvial geomorphic processes and landforms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hupp, Cliff R.; Dufour, S; Bornette, G

2016-01-01

This chapter exemplifies that vegetation can be used as a tool for geomorphic interpretation in several major ways. It presents a general overview: through dendrogeomorphic analysis (tree rings) to estimate the timing of important geomorphic events including floods and mass wasting and to estimate rates of erosion and sedimentation; through the documentation and interpretation of species distributional patterns that are established in response to prevailing hydrogeomorphic conditions; and through the role that it plays, depending on size, shape and growth form, in flow rates and subsequent erosion and deposition processes. Floods, from prolonged inundation characteristic of relatively large, low-gradient basins to high-gradient and short-period destructive events, are the most important extrinsic factor in bottomland systems. Vegetation organization, composition and plant community dynamics on river floodplains are controlled by disturbance type and scale, and biological characteristics of plants linked to resistance to disturbance, resilience and competitive ability.

Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krechowicz, Maria

2017-10-01

Nowadays, one of the characteristic features of construction industry is an increased complexity of a growing number of projects. Almost each construction project is unique, has its project-specific purpose, its own project structural complexity, owner’s expectations, ground conditions unique to a certain location, and its own dynamics. Failure costs and costs resulting from unforeseen problems in complex construction projects are very high. Project complexity drivers pose many vulnerabilities to a successful completion of a number of projects. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were used, on the example of the realization phase of the ENERGIS teaching-laboratory building, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. This paper suggests a new approach to risk management for complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were applied. The risk management process was divided into six stages: gathering information, identification of the top, critical project risks resulting from the project complexity, construction of the fault tree for each top, critical risks, logical analysis of the fault tree, quantitative risk assessment applying fuzzy logic and development of risk response strategy. A new methodology for the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for top, critical risks in complex construction projects was developed. Risk assessment was carried out applying Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis on the example of one top critical risk. Application of the Fuzzy sets theory to the proposed model allowed to decrease uncertainty and eliminate problems with gaining the crisp values of the basic events probability, common during expert risk assessment with the objective to give the exact risk score of each unwanted event probability.

A Conceptual Model of Riparian Forest Response to Channel Abandonment on Meandering Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.; Piegay, H.; Dufour, S.; Fremier, A. K.

2008-12-01

On alluvial rivers, hydrogeomorphic regimes exert a primary control on the regeneration of pioneer riparian forest stands and thus their composition and age structure. Seasonal flow patterns provide the necessary conditions for recruitment, and channel migration drives patterns of forest stand dynamics. To date, studies of pioneer riparian forest structure have focused primarily on point bar habitats, where woody vegetation typically recruits with decadal frequency in even-aged bands parallel to the river margin. However, there are indications that other recruitment pathways exist and can be important from a population and conservation perspective. On floodplains where channel migration occurs as infrequent cutoff or avulsion events, the geometry and position of the old channel relative to the new one determines rates and patterns of sedimentation and flood frequency. These conditions provide a brief opportunity for forest recruitment, and geomorphic evolution of the former channel habitat in turn influences forest dynamics. The population implications of this alternative forest regeneration pathway depend on the temporal dynamics of channel abandonment versus the rate of lateral channel migration. Preliminary analysis indicates that the geographic scope of this ecogeomorphological process is sizable. Along the Sacramento River (CA) and Ain River (France), for example, cottonwood-dominated stands associated with abandoned channels tend to be less frequent in number (38% of all stands) but larger in area (accounting for 53% of all forest area) relative to forest stands associated with laterally migrating point bars. Dendrochronological analysis confirms that tree ages in floodplain stands corresponds to the first decade after channel abandonment. These data indicate that changes to the rate and scale of channel abandonment due to human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics.

Application of a computationally efficient method to approximate gap model results with a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Lischke, H.

2014-07-01

To be able to simulate climate change effects on forest dynamics over the whole of Switzerland, we adapted the second-generation DGVM (dynamic global vegetation model) LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) to the Alpine environment. We modified model functions, tuned model parameters, and implemented new tree species to represent the potential natural vegetation of Alpine landscapes. Furthermore, we increased the computational efficiency of the model to enable area-covering simulations in a fine resolution (1 km) sufficient for the complex topography of the Alps, which resulted in more than 32 000 simulation grid cells. To this aim, we applied the recently developed method GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) (Scherstjanoi et al., 2013) to LPJ-GUESS. GAPPARD derives mean output values from a combination of simulation runs without disturbances and a patch age distribution defined by the disturbance frequency. With this computationally efficient method, which increased the model's speed by approximately the factor 8, we were able to faster detect the shortcomings of LPJ-GUESS functions and parameters. We used the adapted LPJ-GUESS together with GAPPARD to assess the influence of one climate change scenario on dynamics of tree species composition and biomass throughout the 21st century in Switzerland. To allow for comparison with the original model, we additionally simulated forest dynamics along a north-south transect through Switzerland. The results from this transect confirmed the high value of the GAPPARD method despite some limitations towards extreme climatic events. It allowed for the first time to obtain area-wide, detailed high-resolution LPJ-GUESS simulation results for a large part of the Alpine region.

Gene-Tree Reconciliation with MUL-Trees to Resolve Polyploidy Events.

PubMed

Gregg, W C Thomas; Ather, S Hussain; Hahn, Matthew W

2017-11-01

Polyploidy can have a huge impact on the evolution of species, and it is a common occurrence, especially in plants. The two types of polyploids-autopolyploids and allopolyploids-differ in the level of divergence between the genes that are brought together in the new polyploid lineage. Because allopolyploids are formed via hybridization, the homoeologous copies of genes within them are at least as divergent as orthologs in the parental species that came together to form them. This means that common methods for estimating the parental lineages of allopolyploidy events are not accurate, and can lead to incorrect inferences about the number of gene duplications and losses. Here, we have adapted an algorithm for topology-based gene-tree reconciliation to work with multi-labeled trees (MUL-trees). By definition, MUL-trees have some tips with identical labels, which makes them a natural representation of the genomes of polyploids. Using this new reconciliation algorithm we can: accurately place allopolyploidy events on a phylogeny, identify the parental lineages that hybridized to form allopolyploids, distinguish between allo-, auto-, and (in most cases) no polyploidy, and correctly count the number of duplications and losses in a set of gene trees. We validate our method using gene trees simulated with and without polyploidy, and revisit the history of polyploidy in data from the clades including both baker's yeast and bread wheat. Our re-analysis of the yeast data confirms the allopolyploid origin and parental lineages previously identified for this group. The method presented here should find wide use in the growing number of genomes from species with a history of polyploidy. [Polyploidy; reconciliation; whole-genome duplication.]. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hurricane Mitch: Landscape Analysis of Damaged Forest Resources of the Bay Islands and Caribbean Coast of Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Michot, Thomas C.; Roetker, Fred; Sullivan, Jason; Melder, Marcus; Handley, Benjamin; Balmat, Jeff

2002-01-01

The advent of analog and digital video has provided amateur photographers with professional-like technology to capture dynamic images with ease and clarity. Videography is also rapidly changing traditional business and scientific applications. In the natural sciences, camcorders are being used largely to record timely observations of plant and animal behavior or consequence of some catastrophic event. Spectacular video of dynamic events such as hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and wildfire document the active process and aftermath. Scientists can analyze video images to quantify aspects of a given event, behavior, or response, temporally and spatially. In this study we demonstrate the simple use of an aerial application of videography to record the spatial extent and damage expression of mangrove forest in the Bay Islands and mainland coast of northern Honduras from wind damage following Hurricane Mitch (1998). In this study, we conducted a video overflight of coastal forests of the Bay Islands and mainland coast of northern Honduras 14 months after impact by Hurricane Mitch (1998). Coastal areas were identified where damage was evident and described relative to damage extent to forest cover, windfall orientation, and height of downed trees. The variability and spatial extent of impact on coastal forest resources is related to reconstructed wind profiles based on model simulations of Mitch's path, strength, and circulation during landfall.

Formulation of D-brane Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Thomas

2012-03-01

It is the purpose of this paper (within the context of STS rules & guidelines ``research report'') to formulate a statistical-mechanical form of D-brane dynamics. We consider first the path integral formulation of quantum mechanics, and extend this to a path-integral formulation of D-brane mechanics, summing over all the possible path integral sectors of R-R, NS charged states. We then investigate this generalization utilizing a path-integral formulation summing over all the possible path integral sectors of R-R charged states, calculated from the mean probability tree-level amplitude of type I, IIA, and IIB strings, serving as a generalization of all strings described by D-branes. We utilize this generalization to study black holes in regimes where the initial D-brane system is legitimate, and further this generalization to look at information loss near regions of nonlocality on a non-ordinary event horizon. We see here that in these specific regimes, we can calculate a path integral formulation, as describing D0-brane mechanics, tracing the dissipation of entropy throughout the event horizon. This is used to study the information paradox, and to propose a resolution between the phenomena and the correct and expected quantum mechanical description. This is done as our path integral throughout entropy entering the event horizon effectively and correctly encodes the initial state in subtle correlations in the Hawking radiation.

Tree mortality in the eastern Mediterranean, causes and implications under climatic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarris, Dimitrios; Iacovou, Valentina; Hoch, Guenter; Vennetier, Michel; Siegwolf, Rolf; Christodoulakis, Dimitrios; Koerner, Christian

2015-04-01

The eastern Mediterranean has experienced repeated incidents of forest mortality related to drought in recent decades. Such events may become more frequent in the future as drought conditions are projected to further intensify due to global warming. We have been investigating the causes behind such forest mortality events in Pinus halepensis, (the most drought tolerant pine in the Mediterranean). We cored tree stems and sampled various tissue types from dry habitats close to sea level and explored growth responses, stable isotope signals and non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations. Under intense drought that coincided with pine desiccation events in natural populations our result indicate a significant reduction in tree growth, the most significant in more than a century despite the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in recent decades. This has been accompanied by a lengthening in the integration periods of rainfall needed for pine growth, reaching even 5-6 years before and including the year of mortality occurrence. Oxygen stable isotopes indicate that these signals were associated with a shift in tree water utilization from deeper moisture pools related to past rainfall events. Furthermore, where the driest conditions occur, pine carbon reserves were found to increase in stem tissue, indicating that mortality in these pines cannot be explained by carbon starvation. Our findings suggest that for pine populations that are already water limited (i) a further atmospheric CO2 increase will not compensate for the reduction in growth because of a drier climate, (ii) hydraulic failure appears as the most likely cause of pine desiccation, as no shortage occurs in tree carbon reserves, (iii) a further increase in mortality events may cause these systems to become carbon sources.

Critical care nursing: Embedded complex systems.

PubMed

Trinier, Ruth; Liske, Lori; Nenadovic, Vera

2016-01-01

Variability in parameters such as heart rate, respiratory rate and blood pressure defines healthy physiology and the ability of the person to adequately respond to stressors. Critically ill patients have lost this variability and require highly specialized nursing care to support life and monitor changes in condition. The critical care environment is a dynamic system through which information flows. The critical care unit is typically designed as a tree structure with generally one attending physician and multiple nurses and allied health care professionals. Information flow through the system allows for identification of deteriorating patient status and timely interventionfor rescue from further deleterious effects. Nurses provide the majority of direct patient care in the critical care setting in 2:1, 1:1 or 1:2 nurse-to-patient ratios. The bedside nurse-critically ill patient relationship represents the primary, real-time feedback loop of information exchange, monitoring and treatment. Variables that enhance information flow through this loop and support timely nursing intervention can improve patient outcomes, while barriers can lead to errors and adverse events. Examining patient information flow in the critical care environment from a dynamic systems perspective provides insights into how nurses deliver effective patient care and prevent adverse events.

Simulation of Drought-induced Tree Mortality Using a New Individual and Hydraulic Trait-based Model (S-TEDy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Gangodagamage, C.; Ale, S.; Frazier, A. G.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kumagai, T.; Nakai, T.; Sato, H.

2017-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

A Hybrid Shared-Memory Parallel Max-Tree Algorithm for Extreme Dynamic-Range Images.

PubMed

Moschini, Ugo; Meijster, Arnold; Wilkinson, Michael H F

2018-03-01

Max-trees, or component trees, are graph structures that represent the connected components of an image in a hierarchical way. Nowadays, many application fields rely on images with high-dynamic range or floating point values. Efficient sequential algorithms exist to build trees and compute attributes for images of any bit depth. However, we show that the current parallel algorithms perform poorly already with integers at bit depths higher than 16 bits per pixel. We propose a parallel method combining the two worlds of flooding and merging max-tree algorithms. First, a pilot max-tree of a quantized version of the image is built in parallel using a flooding method. Later, this structure is used in a parallel leaf-to-root approach to compute efficiently the final max-tree and to drive the merging of the sub-trees computed by the threads. We present an analysis of the performance both on simulated and actual 2D images and 3D volumes. Execution times are about better than the fastest sequential algorithm and speed-up goes up to on 64 threads.

[Factors influencing tree radial growth of three common species in broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forests in Changbai Mountains, China].

PubMed

Cai, Li Rong; Kuang, Xu; Fang, Shuai; Yuan, Zuo Qiang; Lin, Fei; Ye, Ji; Hao, Zhan Qing; Wang, Xu Gao

2017-05-18

To understand the factors influencing tree radial growth, we analyzed the seasonal dynamics of tree growth of 3 common species (Pinus koraiensis, Tilia amurensis, Quercus mongolica), compared interspecific growth rates and explored the effects of size, neighborhood competition, soil and topography based on five years dendrometer bands monitoring data of the 3 common species in a broad-leaved Korean pine (P. koraiensis) mixed forest plot in Changbai Mountain, Northeast China. The results showed that the growth dynamics of 3 species were consistent. Trees began to grow in late May, thrived in July, grew at declining rates from late August and stopped growing in late October. Annual relative growth rates were significantly different among the species. Q. mongolica tended to grow faster than the other two species, and the differences of growth rates among the 3 species were especially large for small and medium trees. Tree growth rates of P. koraiensis and Q. mongolica were strongly decreased by neighborhood competition, while tree growth rate of T. amurensis was significantly related to tree size, soil and topography.

Crown condition dynamics of oak in southern Sweden 1988-1999.

PubMed

Drobyshev, Igor; Anderson, Stefan; Sonesson, Kerstin

2007-11-01

Crown defoliation of oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea) was analysed in 808 trees during three forest condition surveys (1988, 1993, and 1999) in the southern Sweden. From 1988 to 1999 crown defoliation increased by more than 20%. Changes in crown defoliation were related to the pH in the upper 20-30 cm of the mineral soils, which was closely connected to other measures of soil fertility (cation exchange capacity, CEC and C/N ratio). Trees growing on soils with a high pH (> or =4.00, in BaCl2 filtrate), high CEC and low C/N ratio had significantly lower crown defoliation than trees growing on more acid soils (pH <4.00), indicating that less favourable soil conditions may further enhance oak decline. Age did not differentiate trees with respect to crown defoliation, indicating that decline in crown condition was not due to an age-related increase in crown transparency. Considering only trees younger than 100 years, a significant interaction was observed between changes in crown defoliation and soil pH. Trees younger than 100 years old growing on more acidic soils had a greater increase in crown transparency than trees on more basic soils between 1988 and 1999. Trees > or =100 years old had significantly higher defoliation on more acidic than on more basic soils, however defoliation dynamics of these trees over 1988-99 was not related to soil acidity. Two biotic agents (insect and fungal leaf infections) evaluated in this study did not prove to be important drivers of defoliation dynamics.

Can live tree size-density relationships provide a mechanism for predicting down and dead tree resources?

Treesearch

Christopher Woodall; James Westfall

2009-01-01

Live tree size-density relationships in forests have long provided a framework for understanding stand dynamics. There has been little examination of the relationship between the size-density attributes of live and standing/down dead trees (e.g., number and mean tree size per unit area, such information could help in large-scale efforts to estimate dead wood resources...

Effects of Afforestation and Natural Revegetation on Soil Moisture Dynamics in Paired Watersheds in the Loess Plateau of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Z.; Guo, L.; Lin, H.; Wang, Y.; Chu, G.

2017-12-01

In this study, a paired of small watersheds, which are artificial forestland and natural grassland, respectively, were selected. The two watersheds have been set up since 1954 and the time of revegetation is more than 60 years. Their differences in event and seasonal dynamics of soil moisture were investigated and the effects of vegetation and landform were analyzed. Results showed that consecutive small events higher than 22 mm and single events higher than 16.6 mm could recharge the soil moisture of the two watersheds, but no rainfall event was observed to recharge the soil moisture of 100 cm within 2 weeks after rainfall initiation. Moreover, the two contrasting watersheds showed no difference in rainfall threshold for effective soil moisture replenishment and also had similar patterns of soil water increment with the increase of initial soil water content and rainfall intensity. The changing vegetation cover and coverage at different landforms (uphill slope land and downhill gully) showed the most significant impact on event and seasonal dynamics of soil moisture. The strong interception, evaporation and transpiration of tree canopy and understory vegetation in the gully of the forestland showed the most negative impacts on soil moisture replenishment. Moreover, dense surface grass biomass (living and dead) in the grassland also showed negative impacts on effective soil moisture recharge. Landform itself showed no significant impact on event soil moisture dynamics through changing the initial soil water content and soil texture, while site differences in slope gradient and soil temperature could affect the seasonal soil water content. During the growing season of May-October, the forestland showed 1.3% higher soil water content than that of the grassland in the landform of uphill slope land; while in the landform of downhill gully, the grassland showed 4.3% higher soil water content than that of the forestland. Many studies have predicted that there will be more extreme precipitation in the global and local dry regions in the 21st century, and thus the threshold and mechanisms of effective rainfall replenishment should be strengthened. Keywords: Soil water monitoring; paired watersheds; afforestation; natural recovery; landform Corresponding author: Prof. Dr. Zhao Jin, jinzhao@ieecas.cn

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such, an ETA is considered to be a valuable quantitative decision support tool.

Tree mortality from a short-duration freezing event and global-change-type drought in a Southwestern piñon-juniper woodland, USA

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This study documents tree mortality in Big Bend National Park in Texas in response to the most acute one-year drought on record, which occurred following a five-day winter freeze. I estimated changes in forest stand structure and species composition due to freezing and drought in the Chisos Mountains of Big Bend National Park using permanent monitoring plot data. The drought killed over half (63%) of the sampled trees over the entire elevation gradient. Significant mortality occurred in trees up to 20 cm diameter (P < 0.05). Pinus cembroides Zucc. experienced the highest seedling and tree mortality (P < 0.0001) (55% of piñon pines died), and over five times as many standing dead pines were observed in 2012 than in 2009. Juniperus deppeana vonSteudal and Quercus emoryi Leibmann also experienced significant declines in tree density (P < 0.02) (30.9% and 20.7%, respectively). Subsequent droughts under climate change will likely cause even greater damage to trees that survived this record drought, especially if such events follow freezes. The results from this study highlight the vulnerability of trees in the Southwest to climatic change and that future shifts in forest structure can have large-scale community consequences. PMID:24949231

Can Network Linkage Effects Determine Return? Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

PubMed Central

Qiao, Haishu; Xia, Yue; Li, Ying

2016-01-01

This study used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) method to identify the linkage effects of Chinese stock market, and further detected the influence of network linkage effects on magnitude of security returns across different industries. Applying two physics-derived techniques, the minimum spanning tree and the hierarchical tree, we analyzed the stock interdependence within the network of the China Securities Index (CSI) industry index basket. We observed that that obvious linkage effects existed among stock networks. CII and CCE, CAG and ITH as well as COU, CHA and REI were confirmed as the core nodes in the three different networks respectively. We also investigated the stability of linkage effects by estimating the mean correlations and mean distances, as well as the normalized tree length of these indices. In addition, using the GMM model approach, we found inter-node influence within the stock network had a pronounced effect on stock returns. Our results generally suggested that there appeared to be greater clustering effect among the indexes belonging to related industrial sectors than those of diverse sectors, and network comovement was significantly affected by impactive financial events in the reality. Besides, stocks that were more central within the network of stock market usually had higher returns for compensation because they endured greater exposure to correlation risk. PMID:27257816

Can Network Linkage Effects Determine Return? Evidence from Chinese Stock Market.

PubMed

Qiao, Haishu; Xia, Yue; Li, Ying

2016-01-01

This study used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) method to identify the linkage effects of Chinese stock market, and further detected the influence of network linkage effects on magnitude of security returns across different industries. Applying two physics-derived techniques, the minimum spanning tree and the hierarchical tree, we analyzed the stock interdependence within the network of the China Securities Index (CSI) industry index basket. We observed that that obvious linkage effects existed among stock networks. CII and CCE, CAG and ITH as well as COU, CHA and REI were confirmed as the core nodes in the three different networks respectively. We also investigated the stability of linkage effects by estimating the mean correlations and mean distances, as well as the normalized tree length of these indices. In addition, using the GMM model approach, we found inter-node influence within the stock network had a pronounced effect on stock returns. Our results generally suggested that there appeared to be greater clustering effect among the indexes belonging to related industrial sectors than those of diverse sectors, and network comovement was significantly affected by impactive financial events in the reality. Besides, stocks that were more central within the network of stock market usually had higher returns for compensation because they endured greater exposure to correlation risk.

Tree-, stand- and site-specific controls on landscape-scale patterns of transpiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassler, Sibylle; Markus, Weiler; Theresa, Blume

2017-04-01

Transpiration is a key process in the hydrological cycle and a sound understanding and quantification of transpiration and its spatial variability is essential for management decisions as well as for improving the parameterisation of hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models. For individual trees, transpiration is commonly estimated by measuring sap flow. Besides evaporative demand and water availability, tree-specific characteristics such as species, size or social status control sap flow amounts of individual trees. Within forest stands, properties such as species composition, basal area or stand density additionally affect sap flow, for example via competition mechanisms. Finally, sap flow patterns might also be influenced by landscape-scale characteristics such as geology, slope position or aspect because they affect water and energy availability; however, little is known about the dynamic interplay of these controls. We studied the relative importance of various tree-, stand- and site-specific characteristics with multiple linear regression models to explain the variability of sap velocity measurements in 61 beech and oak trees, located at 24 sites spread over a 290 km2-catchment in Luxembourg. For each of 132 consecutive days of the growing season of 2014 we modelled the daily sap velocities of these 61 trees and determined the importance of the different predictors. Results indicate that a combination of tree-, stand- and site-specific factors controls sap velocity patterns in the landscape, namely tree species, tree diameter, the stand density, geology and aspect. Compared to these predictors, spatial variability of atmospheric demand and soil moisture explains only a small fraction of the variability in the daily datasets. However, the temporal dynamics of the explanatory power of the tree-specific characteristics, especially species, are correlated to the temporal dynamics of potential evaporation. Thus, transpiration estimates at the landscape scale would benefit from not only considering hydro-meteorological drivers, but also including tree, stand and site characteristics in order to improve the spatial representation of transpiration for hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models.

78 FR 66762 - Notice of Public Meeting and Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-06

... of request for public meeting and public comments on the planning of the National Christmas Tree... and suggestions on the planning of the 2013 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26-day... on the planning of the 2013 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26-day event, which...

76 FR 66082 - Notice of Public Meeting and Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-25

... for Public Meeting and Public Comments--The National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 31 day... the 2011 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 31 day event. DATES: The meeting will be... and suggestions on the planning of the 2011 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 31 day...

Tasting the Tree of Life: Development of a Collaborative, Cross-Campus, Science Outreach Meal Event.

PubMed

Clement, Wendy L; Elliott, Kathryn T; Cordova-Hoyos, Okxana; Distefano, Isabel; Kearns, Kate; Kumar, Raagni; Leto, Ashley; Tumaliuan, Janis; Franchetti, Lauren; Kulesza, Evelyn; Tineo, Nicole; Mendes, Patrice; Roth, Karen; Osborn, Jeffrey M

2018-01-01

Communicating about science with the public can present a number of challenges, from participation to engagement to impact. In an effort to broadly communicate messages regarding biodiversity, evolution, and tree-thinking with the campus community at The College of New Jersey (TCNJ), a public, primarily undergraduate institution, we created a campus-wide, science-themed meal, "Tasting the Tree of Life: Exploring Biodiversity through Cuisine." We created nine meals that incorporated 149 species/ingredients across the Tree of Life. Each meal illustrated a scientific message communicated through interactions with undergraduate biology students, informational signs, and an interactive website. To promote tree-thinking, we reconstructed a phylogeny of all 149 ingredients. In total, 3,262 people attended the meal, and evaluations indicated that participants left with greater appreciation for the biodiversity and evolutionary relatedness of their food. A keynote lecture and a coordinated social media campaign enhanced the scientific messages, and media coverage extended the reach of this event. "Tasting the Tree of Life" highlights the potential of cuisine as a valuable science communication tool.

A method for investigating relative timing information on phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Ford, Daniel; Matsen, Frederick A; Stadler, Tanja

2009-04-01

In this paper, we present a new way to describe the timing of branching events in phylogenetic trees. Our description is in terms of the relative timing of diversification events between sister clades; as such it is complementary to existing methods using lineages-through-time plots which consider diversification in aggregate. The method can be applied to look for evidence of diversification happening in lineage-specific "bursts", or the opposite, where diversification between 2 clades happens in an unusually regular fashion. In order to be able to distinguish interesting events from stochasticity, we discuss 2 classes of neutral models on trees with relative timing information and develop a statistical framework for testing these models. These model classes include both the coalescent with ancestral population size variation and global rate speciation-extinction models. We end the paper with 2 example applications: first, we show that the evolution of the hepatitis C virus deviates from the coalescent with arbitrary population size. Second, we analyze a large tree of ants, demonstrating that a period of elevated diversification rates does not appear to have occurred in a bursting manner.

Variation in herbaceous vegetation and soil moisture under treated and untreated oneseed juniper trees

Treesearch

Hector Ramirez; Alexander Fernald; Andres Cibils; Michelle Morris; Shad Cox; Michael Rubio

2008-01-01

Clearing oneseed juniper (Juniperus monosperma) may make more water available for aquifer recharge or herbaceous vegetation growth, but the effects of tree treatment on soil moisture dynamics are not fully understood. This study investigated juniper treatment effects on understory herbaceous vegetation concurrently with soil moisture dynamics using vegetation sampling...

DYNAMICS OF WATER TRANSPORT AND STORAGE IN CONIFERS STUDIED WITH DEUTERIUM AND HEAT TRACING TECHNIQUES

EPA Science Inventory

The volume and complexity of their vascular systems make the dynamics of long-distance water transport difficult to study. We used heat and deuterated water (D2O) as tracers to characterize whole-tree water transport and storage properties in individual trees belonging to the co...

Alpine treeline of western North America: linking organism-to-landscape dynamics.

Treesearch

George P. Malanson; David R. Butler; Daniel B. Fagre; Stephen J. Walsh; Diana F. Tomback; Lori D. Daniels; Lynn M. Resler; William K. Smith; Daniel J. Weiss; David L. Peterson; Andrew G. Bunn; Christopher A. Hiemstra; Daniel Liptzin; Patrick S. Bourgeron; Zehao Shen; Constance I. Millar

2007-01-01

Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone—seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree diebackdepend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind...

Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

PubMed

Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

2015-09-01

The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A decision tree algorithm for investigation of model biases related to dynamical cores and physical parameterizations: CESM/CAM EVALUATION BY DECISION TREES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soner Yorgun, M.; Rood, Richard B.

An object-based evaluation method using a pattern recognition algorithm (i.e., classification trees) is applied to the simulated orographic precipitation for idealized experimental setups using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the finite volume (FV) and the Eulerian spectral transform dynamical cores with varying resolutions. Daily simulations were analyzed and three different types of precipitation features were identified by the classification tree algorithm. The statistical characteristics of these features (i.e., maximum value, mean value, and variance) were calculated to quantify the difference between the dynamical cores and changing resolutions. Even with the simple and smoothmore » topography in the idealized setups, complexity in the precipitation fields simulated by the models develops quickly. The classification tree algorithm using objective thresholding successfully detected different types of precipitation features even as the complexity of the precipitation field increased. The results show that the complexity and the bias introduced in small-scale phenomena due to the spectral transform method of CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical core is prominent, and is an important reason for its dissimilarity from the FV dynamical core. The resolvable scales, both in horizontal and vertical dimensions, have significant effect on the simulation of precipitation. The results of this study also suggest that an efficient and informative study about the biases produced by GCMs should involve daily (or even hourly) output (rather than monthly mean) analysis over local scales.« less

A decision tree algorithm for investigation of model biases related to dynamical cores and physical parameterizations: CESM/CAM EVALUATION BY DECISION TREES

DOE PAGES

Soner Yorgun, M.; Rood, Richard B.

2016-11-11

An object-based evaluation method using a pattern recognition algorithm (i.e., classification trees) is applied to the simulated orographic precipitation for idealized experimental setups using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the finite volume (FV) and the Eulerian spectral transform dynamical cores with varying resolutions. Daily simulations were analyzed and three different types of precipitation features were identified by the classification tree algorithm. The statistical characteristics of these features (i.e., maximum value, mean value, and variance) were calculated to quantify the difference between the dynamical cores and changing resolutions. Even with the simple and smoothmore » topography in the idealized setups, complexity in the precipitation fields simulated by the models develops quickly. The classification tree algorithm using objective thresholding successfully detected different types of precipitation features even as the complexity of the precipitation field increased. The results show that the complexity and the bias introduced in small-scale phenomena due to the spectral transform method of CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical core is prominent, and is an important reason for its dissimilarity from the FV dynamical core. The resolvable scales, both in horizontal and vertical dimensions, have significant effect on the simulation of precipitation. The results of this study also suggest that an efficient and informative study about the biases produced by GCMs should involve daily (or even hourly) output (rather than monthly mean) analysis over local scales.« less

Measuring urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes

EPA Science Inventory

The spatial arrangement of urban vegetation depends on urban morphology and socio-economic settings. Urban vegetation changes over time because of human management. Urban trees are removed due to hazard prevention or aesthetic preferences. Previous research attributed tree loss t...

Twisted trees and inconsistency of tree estimation when gaps are treated as missing data - The impact of model mis-specification in distance corrections.

PubMed

McTavish, Emily Jane; Steel, Mike; Holder, Mark T

2015-12-01

Statistically consistent estimation of phylogenetic trees or gene trees is possible if pairwise sequence dissimilarities can be converted to a set of distances that are proportional to the true evolutionary distances. Susko et al. (2004) reported some strikingly broad results about the forms of inconsistency in tree estimation that can arise if corrected distances are not proportional to the true distances. They showed that if the corrected distance is a concave function of the true distance, then inconsistency due to long branch attraction will occur. If these functions are convex, then two "long branch repulsion" trees will be preferred over the true tree - though these two incorrect trees are expected to be tied as the preferred true. Here we extend their results, and demonstrate the existence of a tree shape (which we refer to as a "twisted Farris-zone" tree) for which a single incorrect tree topology will be guaranteed to be preferred if the corrected distance function is convex. We also report that the standard practice of treating gaps in sequence alignments as missing data is sufficient to produce non-linear corrected distance functions if the substitution process is not independent of the insertion/deletion process. Taken together, these results imply inconsistent tree inference under mild conditions. For example, if some positions in a sequence are constrained to be free of substitutions and insertion/deletion events while the remaining sites evolve with independent substitutions and insertion/deletion events, then the distances obtained by treating gaps as missing data can support an incorrect tree topology even given an unlimited amount of data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event on tropical trees in regrowing secondary forests in Central Panama

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.

2016-12-01

The 2015/16 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event ranks amongst the driest and hottest periods on record in Panama, with severe drought conditions reported for over 90% of the country. A predicted long-term transition into a drier climatic period makes this event an ideal opportunity to study the effects of drought on tropical tree species in secondary forests of central Panama. These forests are associated with desirable hydrological ecosystem services, characterized by reduced peak runoff during high precipitation events in the rainy season and increased base flow during the dry season ("sponge-effect"), making these forest invaluable for water provisioning for the Panama Canal's $2 billion business and Panama's thriving capital city. Starting in February 2015, we installed heat-ratio sap flow sensors in 76 trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) in the 15 km2 Agua Salud study area, located in the Panama Canal Watershed. Within each site, trees were selected to represent local tree size distribution. Additional sensors were installed on the roots of a subset of trees. Sap flow data were logged every 30 minutes and soil moisture was measured every 3 minutes at 10, 30, 50, and 100 cm depth. Pre-dawn, mid-day, and pre-dusk leaf water potentials were measured during the dry season (March 2016) and rainy season (July 2016). Meteorological data were taken from a nearby met-station ("Celestino"). Primary drivers of transpiration were vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. Trees of the 25 and 80+ year old forests appear not water limited during the dry season following ENSO while reduced sap flow rates of trees in the 8 year old forest are indicative of a regulatory response to the drought. Younger understory trees in the 80+ year old forest showed no signs of a drought response. Throughout most of the dry season, volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old forest than in the 80+ year old forest. Our data indicate higher resilience to drought in older forest and support that hydrological properties improve as secondary forests mature in central Panama.

Channel-dynamic control on the establishment of riparian trees after large floods in northwestern California

Treesearch

Thomas E. Lisle

1989-01-01

Abstract - Large floods in northwestern California in the past two decades have mobilized extensive areas of valley floors, removed streamside trees, and widened channels. Channel cross sections were surveyed to illustrate an hypothesis on the linkage between sediment transport, colonization of channel margins by trees, and streambank recovery. Riparian trees, e.g.,...

The Spatial Distribution of Dead Trees across Arkansas Timberlands

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich; James M. Guldin

1999-01-01

Abstract -- Dead trees are an important part of the forest ecosystem and their attributes have been studied at the stand scale. However, their distribution over a large region has rarely been examined. In this study, the distribution and dynamics of sound wood in dead trees and the ratio of dead to live trees across the Arkansas landscape were...

Carbon dynamics in trees: feast or famine?

Treesearch

Anna Sala; David R. Woodruff; Fredrick C. Meinzer

2012-01-01

Research on the degree to which carbon (C) availability limits growth in trees, as well as recent trends in climate change and concurrent increases in drought related tree mortality, have led to a renewed focus on the physiological mechanisms associated with tree growth responses to current and future climate. This has led to some dispute over the role of stored...

Impacts of short-term heatwaves on sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence(SiF) in temperate tree species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Gu, L.; Guha, A.; Han, J.; Warren, J.

2017-12-01

The current projections for global climate change forecast an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, such as droughts and short-term heat waves. Understanding the effects of short-term heat wave on photosynthesis process is of critical importance to predict global impacts of extreme weather event on vegetation. The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of SIF emitted from natural vegetation, e.g., forest and crop, have been studied at the ecosystem-scale, regional-scale and global-scale. However, the detailed response of SIF from different plant species under extremely weather event, especially short-term heat wave, have not been reported. The purpose of this study was to study the response of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange and continuous fluorescence at leaf scale for different temperate tree species. The short-term heatwave experiment was conducted using plant growth chamber (CMP6050, Conviron Inc., Canada). We developed an advanced spectral fitting method to obtain the plant SIF in the plant growth chamber. We compared SIF variation among different wavelength and chlorophyll difference among four temperate tree species. The diurnal variation of SIF signals at leaf-scales for temperate tree species are different under heat stress. The SIF response at leaf-scales and their difference for four temperate tree species are different during a cycle of short-term heatwave stress. We infer that SIF be used as a measure of heat tolerance for temperate tree species.

Assessment of Methods to Determine Tree Ring Response to Large Magnitude Mississippi River Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Therrell, M. D.; Meko, M. D.; Bialecki, M.; Remo, J. W.

2017-12-01

Riparian trees that experience prolonged inundation can record major flood events as inter-and intra-annual variability in size, shape and arrangement of vessels in the annual xylem growth increment. As part of an NSF-funded project to develop tree-ring records of past flooding, we have made collections of several oak species (e.g., Quercus lyrata, Q. macrocarpa) at six sites in the Mississippi River Basin. At each of these sites sampled trees exhibit notably anomalous anatomy of growth increments formed in years coinciding with major recorded floods. We have used these "flood rings" to develop individual site chronologies as well as a regional chronology of spring flood events in the basin for the past several hundred years. We have also analyzed earlywood vessel diameter as a proxy for flooding and find that although this variable reflects only a fraction of the annual-growth increment it strongly reflects tree response to flooding at all the sites so far examined. We compare both these chronologies with the instrumental and historical record of flooding and find that our chronologies are recording nearly all large observed Mississippi River floods in the 20th century, and provide a new record of similar events in the 18th and 19th centuries. These results suggest that tree-rings can be effectively used to develop and improve pre-instrumental flood records throughout the basin and potentially other similar systems.

Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhen; Babst, Flurin; Bellassen, Valentin; Frank, David; Launois, Thomas; Tan, Kun; Ciais, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

Does carbon availability control temporal dynamics of radial growth in Norway spruce (Picea abies)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas; Swidrak, Irene

2015-04-01

Intra-annual dynamics of cambial activity and wood formation of coniferous species exposed to soil dryness revealed early culmination of maximum growth in late spring prior to occurrence of more favourable environmental conditions, i.e., repeated high rainfall events during summer (Oberhuber et al. 2014). Because it is well known that plants can adjust carbon allocation patterns to optimize resource uptake under prevailing environmental constraints, we hypothesize that early decrease in radial stem growth is an adaptation to cope with drought stress, which might require an early switch of carbon allocation to belowground organs. Physical blockage of carbon transport in the phloem through girdling causes accumulation and depletion of carbohydrates above and below the girdle, respectively, making this method quite appropriate to investigate carbon relationships in trees. Hence, in a common garden experiment we will manipulate the carbon status of Norway spruce (Picea abies) saplings by phloem blockage at different phenological stages during the growing season. We will present the methodological approach and first results of the study aiming to test the hypothesis that carbon status of the tree affects temporal dynamics of cambial activity and wood formation in conifers under drought. Acknowledgment The research is funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): P25643-B16 "Carbon allocation and growth of Scots pine". Reference Oberhuber W, A Gruber, W Kofler, I Swidrak (2014) Radial stem growth in response to microclimate and soil moisture in a drought-prone mixed coniferous forest at an inner Alpine site. Eur J For Res 133:467-479.

Application of a computationally efficient method to approximate gap model results with a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Lischke, H.

2014-02-01

To be able to simulate climate change effects on forest dynamics over the whole of Switzerland, we adapted the second generation DGVM LPJ-GUESS to the Alpine environment. We modified model functions, tuned model parameters, and implemented new tree species to represent the potential natural vegetation of Alpine landscapes. Furthermore, we increased the computational efficiency of the model to enable area-covering simulations in a fine resolution (1 km) sufficient for the complex topography of the Alps, which resulted in more than 32 000 simulation grid cells. To this aim, we applied the recently developed method GAPPARD (Scherstjanoi et al., 2013) to LPJ-GUESS. GAPPARD derives mean output values from a combination of simulation runs without disturbances and a patch age distribution defined by the disturbance frequency. With this computationally efficient method, that increased the model's speed by approximately the factor 8, we were able to faster detect shortcomings of LPJ-GUESS functions and parameters. We used the adapted LPJ-GUESS together with GAPPARD to assess the influence of one climate change scenario on dynamics of tree species composition and biomass throughout the 21st century in Switzerland. To allow for comparison with the original model, we additionally simulated forest dynamics along a north-south-transect through Switzerland. The results from this transect confirmed the high value of the GAPPARD method despite some limitations towards extreme climatic events. It allowed for the first time to obtain area-wide, detailed high resolution LPJ-GUESS simulation results for a large part of the Alpine region.

Systems Modeling to Implement Integrated System Health Management Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Figueroa, Jorge F.; Walker, Mark; Morris, Jonathan; Smith, Harvey; Schmalzel, John

2007-01-01

ISHM capability includes: detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, and user interfaces that enable integrated awareness (past, present, and future) by users. This is achieved by focused management of data, information and knowledge (DIaK) that will likely be distributed across networks. Management of DIaK implies storage, sharing (timely availability), maintaining, evolving, and processing. Processing of DIaK encapsulates strategies, methodologies, algorithms, etc. focused on achieving high ISHM Functional Capability Level (FCL). High FCL means a high degree of success in detecting anomalies, diagnosing causes, predicting future anomalies, and enabling health integrated awareness by the user. A model that enables ISHM capability, and hence, DIaK management, is denominated the ISHM Model of the System (IMS). We describe aspects of the IMS that focus on processing of DIaK. Strategies, methodologies, and algorithms require proper context. We describe an approach to define and use contexts, implementation in an object-oriented software environment (G2), and validation using actual test data from a methane thruster test program at NASA SSC. Context is linked to existence of relationships among elements of a system. For example, the context to use a strategy to detect leak is to identify closed subsystems (e.g. bounded by closed valves and by tanks) that include pressure sensors, and check if the pressure is changing. We call these subsystems Pressurizable Subsystems. If pressure changes are detected, then all members of the closed subsystem become suspect of leakage. In this case, the context is defined by identifying a subsystem that is suitable for applying a strategy. Contexts are defined in many ways. Often, a context is defined by relationships of function (e.g. liquid flow, maintaining pressure, etc.), form (e.g. part of the same component, connected to other components, etc.), or space (e.g. physically close, touching the same common element, etc.). The context might be defined dynamically (if conditions for the context appear and disappear dynamically) or statically. Although this approach is akin to case-based reasoning, we are implementing it using a software environment that embodies tools to define and manage relationships (of any nature) among objects in a very intuitive manner. Context for higher level inferences (that use detected anomalies or events), primarily for diagnosis and prognosis, are related to causal relationships. This is useful to develop root-cause analysis trees showing an event linked to its possible causes and effects. The innovation pertaining to RCA trees encompasses use of previously defined subsystems as well as individual elements in the tree. This approach allows more powerful implementations of RCA capability in object-oriented environments. For example, if a pressurizable subsystem is leaking, its root-cause representation within an RCA tree will show that the cause is that all elements of that subsystem are suspect of leak. Such a tree would apply to all instances of leak-events detected and all elements in all pressurizable subsystems in the system. Example subsystems in our environment to build IMS include: Pressurizable Subsystem, Fluid-Fill Subsystem, Flow-Thru-Valve Subsystem, and Fluid Supply Subsystem. The software environment for IMS is designed to potentially allow definition of any relationship suitable to create a context to achieve ISHM capability.

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Rooting depth varies differentially in trees and grasses as a function of mean annual rainfall in an African savanna.

PubMed

Holdo, Ricardo M; Nippert, Jesse B; Mack, Michelle C

2018-01-01

A significant fraction of the terrestrial biosphere comprises biomes containing tree-grass mixtures. Forecasting vegetation dynamics in these environments requires a thorough understanding of how trees and grasses use and compete for key belowground resources. There is disagreement about the extent to which tree-grass vertical root separation occurs in these ecosystems, how this overlap varies across large-scale environmental gradients, and what these rooting differences imply for water resource availability and tree-grass competition and coexistence. To assess the extent of tree-grass rooting overlap and how tree and grass rooting patterns vary across resource gradients, we examined landscape-level patterns of tree and grass functional rooting depth along a mean annual precipitation (MAP) gradient extending from ~ 450 to ~ 750 mm year -1 in Kruger National Park, South Africa. We used stable isotopes from soil and stem water to make inferences about relative differences in rooting depth between these two functional groups. We found clear differences in rooting depth between grasses and trees across the MAP gradient, with grasses generally exhibiting shallower rooting profiles than trees. We also found that trees tended to become more shallow-rooted as a function of MAP, to the point that trees and grasses largely overlapped in terms of rooting depth at the wettest sites. Our results reconcile previously conflicting evidence for rooting overlap in this system, and have important implications for understanding tree-grass dynamics under altered precipitation scenarios.

Divergence in strategies for coping with winter embolism among co-occurring temperate tree species: the role of positive xylem pressure, wood type and tree stature

Treesearch

Cun-Yang Niu; Frederick C. Meinzer; Guang-You Hao

2017-01-01

1. In temperate ecosystems, freeze-thaw events are an important environmental stress that can induce severe xylem embolism (i.e. clogging of conduits by air bubbles) in overwintering organs of trees. However, no comparative studies of different adaptive strategies among sympatric tree species for coping with winter embolism have examined the potential role of the...

Systems Theoretic Process Analysis Applied to an Offshore Supply Vessel Dynamic Positioning System

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

additional safety issues that were either not identified or inadequately mitigated through the use of Fault Tree Analysis and Failure Modes and...Techniques ...................................................................................................... 15 1.3.1. Fault Tree Analysis...49 3.2. Fault Tree Analysis Comparison

Strip-Bark Morphology and Radial Growth Trends in Ancient Pinus sibirica Trees From Central Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leland, Caroline; Cook, Edward R.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Pederson, Neil; Hessl, Amy; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Davi, Nicole; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Griffin, Kevin; Bishop, Daniel A.; Rao, Mukund Palat

2018-03-01

Some of the oldest and most important trees used for dendroclimatic reconstructions develop strip-bark morphology, in which only a portion of the stem contains living tissue. Yet the ecophysiological factors initiating strip bark and the potential effect of cambial dieback on annual ring widths and tree-ring estimates of past climate remain poorly understood. Using a combination of field observations and tree-ring data, we investigate the causes and timing of cambial dieback events in Pinus sibirica strip-bark trees from central Mongolia and compare the radial growth rates and trends of strip-bark and whole-bark trees over the past 515 years. Results indicate that strip bark is more common on the southern aspect of trees, and dieback events were most prevalent in the 19th century, a cold and dry period. Further, strip-bark and whole-bark trees have differing centennial trends, with strip-bark trees exhibiting notably large increases in ring widths at the beginning of the 20th century. We find a steeper positive trend in the strip-bark chronology relative to the whole-bark chronology when standardizing with age-dependent splines. We hypothesize that localized warming on the southern side of stems due to solar irradiance results in physiological damage and dieback and leads to increasing tree-ring increment along the living portion of strip-bark trees. Because the impact of cambial dieback on ring widths likely varies depending on species and site, we suggest conducting a comparison of strip-bark and whole-bark ring widths before statistically treating ring-width data for climate reconstructions.

The use of minimal spanning trees in particle physics

DOE PAGES

Rainbolt, J. Lovelace; Schmitt, M.

2017-02-14

Minimal spanning trees (MSTs) have been used in cosmology and astronomy to distinguish distributions of points in a multi-dimensional space. They are essentially unknown in particle physics, however. We briefly define MSTs and illustrate their properties through a series of examples. We show how they might be applied to study a typical event sample from a collider experiment and conclude that MSTs may prove useful in distinguishing different classes of events.

The use of minimal spanning trees in particle physics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rainbolt, J. Lovelace; Schmitt, M.

Minimal spanning trees (MSTs) have been used in cosmology and astronomy to distinguish distributions of points in a multi-dimensional space. They are essentially unknown in particle physics, however. We briefly define MSTs and illustrate their properties through a series of examples. We show how they might be applied to study a typical event sample from a collider experiment and conclude that MSTs may prove useful in distinguishing different classes of events.

Understanding the dynamic effects of returning patients toward emergency department density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Norazura; Zulkepli, Jafri; Ramli, Razamin; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Teo, Aik Howe

2017-11-01

This paper presents the development of a dynamic hypothesis for the effect of returning patients to the emergency department (ED). A logical tree from the Theory of Constraint known as Current Reality Tree was used to identify the key variables. Then, a hypothetical framework portraying the interrelated variables and its influencing relationships was developed using causal loop diagrams (CLD). The conceptual framework was designed as the basis for the development of a system dynamics model.

Temporal Association Between Nonfatal Self-Directed Violence and Tree and Grass Pollen Counts.

PubMed

Jeon-Slaughter, Haekyung; Claassen, Cynthia A; Khan, David A; Mihalakos, Perry; Lee, Kevin B; Brown, E Sherwood

2016-09-01

Prior research suggests a possible association between pollen and suicide. No studies have examined the relationship between pollen and attempted suicide. This study examines the temporal association between airborne pollen counts and nonfatal suicidal and nonsuicidal self-directed violence (SDV) requiring an emergency department visit. Data on daily emergency department visits due to nonfatal SDV as identified by ICD-9 diagnosis criteria were extracted from emergency department medical records of Parkland Memorial Hospital in Dallas, Texas, between January 2000 and December 2003. Concurrent daily airborne tree, grass, and ragweed pollen data from the city of Dallas were extracted from the National Allergy Bureau online database. The data were analyzed using the time series method of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. There were statistically significant and positive temporal associations between tree pollen counts and the number of nonfatal SDV events among women (P = .04) and between grass pollen counts and number of nonfatal SDV events among both men (P = .03) and women (P < .0001). There was no significant temporal association found between ragweed pollen counts and number of nonfatal SDV events. The study findings suggest that an increase in nonfatal SDV is associated with changes in tree and grass pollen counts. This is the first study that has examined an association between seasonal variation in tree and grass pollen levels and nonfatal SDV event data. The study also used a narrowly defined geographic area and temporal window. The findings suggest that pollen count may be a factor influencing seasonal patterns in suicidal behavior. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Can Religious Beliefs be a Protective Factor for Suicidal Behavior? A Decision Tree Analysis in a Mid-Sized City in Iran, 2013.

PubMed

Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Zolala, Farzaneh; Nakhaee, Nouzar; Jalali, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Akbari, Maryam

2017-04-01

This study aimed to assess using tree-based models the impact of different dimensions of religion and other risk factors on suicide attempts in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hundred patients who attempted suicide and 300 age- and sex-matched patient attendants with other types of disease who referred to Kerman Afzalipour Hospital were recruited for this study following a convenience sampling. Religiosity was assessed by the Duke University Religion Index. A tree-based model was constructed using the Gini Index as the homogeneity criterion. A complementary discrimination analysis was also applied. Variables contributing to the construction of the tree were stressful life events, mental disorder, family support, and religious belief. Strong religious belief was a protective factor for those with a low number of stressful life events and those with a high mental disorder score; 72 % of those who formed these two groups had not attempted suicide. Moreover, 63 % of those with a high number of stressful life events, strong family support, strong problem-solving skills, and a low mental disorder score were less likely to attempt suicide. The significance of four other variables, GHQ, problem-coping skills, friend support, and neuroticism, was revealed in the discrimination analysis. Religious beliefs seem to be an independent factor that can predict risk for suicidal behavior. Based on the decision tree, religious beliefs among people with a high number of stressful life events might not be a dissuading factor. Such subjects need more family support and problem-solving skills.

Historical vegetation change in Oakland and its implications for urban forest management

Treesearch

David J. Nowak

1993-01-01

The history of Oakland, California's urban forest was researched to determine events that could influence future urban forests. Vegetation in Oakland has changed drastically from a preurbanized area with approximately 2% tree cover to a present tree cover of 19%. Species composition of trees was previously dominated by coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia...

Patterns of conifer tree regeneration following an autumn wildfire event in the western Oregon Cascade Range, USA.

Treesearch

Andrew J. Larson; Jerry F. Franklin

2005-01-01

We investigated the effect of fire severity and environmental conditions on conifer tree regeneration 11 years after an autumn wildfire in the western Oregon Cascade Range. Conifer tree seedlings, including those of Pseudotsuga menziesii, established promptly and at high densities following fire, in contrast to long establishment periods documented...

Reliability computation using fault tree analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelson, P. O.

1971-01-01

A method is presented for calculating event probabilities from an arbitrary fault tree. The method includes an analytical derivation of the system equation and is not a simulation program. The method can handle systems that incorporate standby redundancy and it uses conditional probabilities for computing fault trees where the same basic failure appears in more than one fault path.

A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

Treesearch

Leslie Brandt; Abigail Derby Lewis; Robert Fahey; Lydia Scott; Lindsay Darling; Chris Swanston

2016-01-01

Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step...

Survival and ecophysiology of tree seedlings during El Nino drought in a tropical moist forest in Panama

Treesearch

Betinna M.J. Engelbrecht; S. Joseph Wright; Diane De Steven

2002-01-01

In tropical forests, severe droughts caused by El Nino events may strongly influence the water relations of tree seedlings and thereby increase their mortality. Data on known-aged seedlings of three common shade-tolerant canopy tree species (Trichilia tuberculata, Tetragastris panamensis and Quararibea asterolepis) in a Panamanian...

Facilitative-Competitive Interactions in an Old-Growth Forest: The Importance of Large-Diameter Trees as Benefactors and Stimulators for Forest Community Assembly

PubMed Central

Fichtner, Andreas; Forrester, David I.; Härdtle, Werner; Sturm, Knut; von Oheimb, Goddert

2015-01-01

The role of competition in tree communities is increasingly well understood, while little is known about the patterns and mechanisms of the interplay between above- and belowground competition in tree communities. This knowledge, however, is crucial for a better understanding of community dynamics and developing adaptive near-natural management strategies. We assessed neighbourhood interactions in an unmanaged old-growth European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest by quantifying variation in the intensity of above- (shading) and belowground competition (crowding) among dominant and co-dominant canopy beech trees during tree maturation. Shading had on average a much larger impact on radial growth than crowding and the sensitivity to changes in competitive conditions was lowest for crowding effects. We found that each mode of competition reduced the effect of the other. Increasing crowding reduced the negative effect of shading, and at high levels of shading, crowding actually had a facilitative effect and increased growth. Our study demonstrates that complementarity in above- and belowground processes enable F. sylvatica to alter resource acquisition strategies, thus optimising tree radial growth. As a result, competition seemed to become less important in stands with a high growing stock and tree communities with a long continuity of anthropogenic undisturbed population dynamics. We suggest that growth rates do not exclusively depend on the density of potential competitors at the intraspecific level, but on the conspecific aggregation of large-diameter trees and their functional role for regulating biotic filtering processes. This finding highlights the potential importance of the rarely examined relationship between the spatial aggregation pattern of large-diameter trees and the outcome of neighbourhood interactions, which may be central to community dynamics and the related forest ecosystem services. PMID:25803035

Facilitative-competitive interactions in an old-growth forest: the importance of large-diameter trees as benefactors and stimulators for forest community assembly.

PubMed

Fichtner, Andreas; Forrester, David I; Härdtle, Werner; Sturm, Knut; von Oheimb, Goddert

2015-01-01

The role of competition in tree communities is increasingly well understood, while little is known about the patterns and mechanisms of the interplay between above- and belowground competition in tree communities. This knowledge, however, is crucial for a better understanding of community dynamics and developing adaptive near-natural management strategies. We assessed neighbourhood interactions in an unmanaged old-growth European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest by quantifying variation in the intensity of above- (shading) and belowground competition (crowding) among dominant and co-dominant canopy beech trees during tree maturation. Shading had on average a much larger impact on radial growth than crowding and the sensitivity to changes in competitive conditions was lowest for crowding effects. We found that each mode of competition reduced the effect of the other. Increasing crowding reduced the negative effect of shading, and at high levels of shading, crowding actually had a facilitative effect and increased growth. Our study demonstrates that complementarity in above- and belowground processes enable F. sylvatica to alter resource acquisition strategies, thus optimising tree radial growth. As a result, competition seemed to become less important in stands with a high growing stock and tree communities with a long continuity of anthropogenic undisturbed population dynamics. We suggest that growth rates do not exclusively depend on the density of potential competitors at the intraspecific level, but on the conspecific aggregation of large-diameter trees and their functional role for regulating biotic filtering processes. This finding highlights the potential importance of the rarely examined relationship between the spatial aggregation pattern of large-diameter trees and the outcome of neighbourhood interactions, which may be central to community dynamics and the related forest ecosystem services.

Quantification and identification of lightning damage in tropical forests.

PubMed

Yanoviak, Stephen P; Gora, Evan M; Burchfield, Jeffrey M; Bitzer, Phillip M; Detto, Matteo

2017-07-01

Accurate estimates of tree mortality are essential for the development of mechanistic forest dynamics models, and for estimating carbon storage and cycling. However, identifying agents of tree mortality is difficult and imprecise. Although lightning kills thousands of trees each year and is an important agent of mortality in some forests, the frequency and distribution of lightning-caused tree death remain unknown for most forests. Moreover, because all evidence regarding the effects of lightning on trees is necessarily anecdotal and post hoc, rigorous tests of hypotheses regarding the ecological effects of lightning are impossible. We developed a combined electronic sensor/camera-based system for the location and characterization of lightning strikes to the forest canopy in near real time and tested the system in the forest of Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Cameras mounted on towers provided continuous video recordings of the forest canopy that were analyzed to determine the locations of lightning strikes. We used a preliminary version of this system to record and locate 18 lightning strikes to the forest over a 3-year period. Data from field surveys of known lightning strike locations (obtained from the camera system) enabled us to develop a protocol for reliable, ground-based identification of suspected lightning damage to tropical trees. In all cases, lightning damage was relatively inconspicuous; it would have been overlooked by ground-based observers having no knowledge of the event. We identified three types of evidence that can be used to consistently identify lightning strike damage in tropical forests: (1) localized and directionally biased branch mortality associated with flashover among tree and sapling crowns, (2) mortality of lianas or saplings near lianas, and (3) scorched or wilting epiphytic and hemiepiphytic plants. The longitudinal trunk scars that are typical of lightning-damaged temperate trees were never observed in this study. Given the prevalence of communications towers worldwide, the lightning detection system described here could be implemented in diverse forest types. Data from multiple systems would provide an outstanding opportunity for comparative research on the ecological effects of lightning. Such comparative data are increasingly important given expected increases in lightning frequency with climatic change.

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarro, Sergio B.

2010-01-01

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Unravelling proximate cues of mass flowering in the tropical forests of South-East Asia from gene expression analyses.

PubMed

Yeoh, Suat Hui; Satake, Akiko; Numata, Shinya; Ichie, Tomoaki; Lee, Soon Leong; Basherudin, Norlia; Muhammad, Norwati; Kondo, Toshiaki; Otani, Tatsuya; Hashim, Mazlan; Tani, Naoki

2017-10-01

Elucidating the physiological mechanisms of the irregular yet concerted flowering rhythm of mass flowering tree species in the tropics requires long-term monitoring of flowering phenology, exogenous and endogenous environmental factors, as well as identifying interactions and dependencies among these factors. To investigate the proximate factors for floral initiation of mast seeding trees in the tropics, we monitored the expression dynamics of two key flowering genes, meteorological conditions and endogenous resources over two flowering events of Shorea curtisii and Shorea leprosula in the Malay Peninsula. Comparisons of expression dynamics of genes studied indicated functional conservation of FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT) and LEAFY (LFY) in Shorea. The genes were highly expressed at least 1 month before anthesis for both species. A mathematical model considering the synergistic effect of cool temperature and drought on activation of the flowering gene was successful in predicting the observed gene expression patterns. Requirement of both cool temperature and drought for floral transition suggested by the model implies that flowering phenologies of these species are sensitive to climate change. Our molecular phenology approach in the tropics sheds light on the conserved role of flowering genes in plants inhabiting different climate zones and can be widely applied to dissect the flowering processes in other plant species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A biologically-based individual tree model for managing the longleaf pine ecosystem

Treesearch

Rick Smith; Greg Somers

1998-01-01

Duration: 1995-present Objective: Develop a longleaf pine dynamics model and simulation system to define desirable ecosystem management practices in existing and future longleaf pine stands. Methods: Naturally-regenerated longleaf pine trees are being destructively sampled to measure their recent growth and dynamics. Soils and climate data will be combined with the...

Greedy algorithms in disordered systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duxbury, P. M.; Dobrin, R.

1999-08-01

We discuss search, minimal path and minimal spanning tree algorithms and their applications to disordered systems. Greedy algorithms solve these problems exactly, and are related to extremal dynamics in physics. Minimal cost path (Dijkstra) and minimal cost spanning tree (Prim) algorithms provide extremal dynamics for a polymer in a random medium (the KPZ universality class) and invasion percolation (without trapping) respectively.

A review of the regeneration dynamics of North American boreal forest tree species

Treesearch

D. F. Greene; John C. Zasada; L. Sirois; D. Kneeshaw; H. Morin; I. Charron; M. J. Simard

1999-01-01

In this review, we focus on the biotic parameters that are crucial to an understanding of the recruitment dynamics of North American boreal tree species following natural (fire, budworm infestation, windthrow) or human-induced (clearcut, partial cut) disturbances. The parameters we emphasize are (i) the production of seeds and asexual stems (both of...

Loss of foundation species: consequences for the structure and dynamics of forested ecosystems

Treesearch

Aaron M. Ellison; Michael S. Bank; Barton D. Clinton; Elizabeth A. Colburn; Katherine Elliott; Chelcy Rae Ford; David R. Foster; Brian D. Kloeppel; Jennifer D. Knoepp; Gary M. Lovett; Jacqueline Mohan; David A. Orwig; Nicholas L. Rodenhouse; William V. Sobczak; Kristina A. Stinson; Jeffrey K. Stone; Christopher M. Swan; Jill Thompson; Betsy Von Holle; Jackson R. Webster

2005-01-01

In many forested ecosystems, the architecture and functional ecology of certain tree species define forest structure and their species-specific traits control ecosystem dynamics. Such foundation tree species are declining throughout the world due to introductions and outbreaks of pests and pathogens, selective removal of individual taxa, and over-harvesting. Through a...

Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils, tree species, and land use histories

Treesearch

Robert M. Scheller; Alec M. Kretchun; Steve Van Tuyl; Kenneth L. Clark; Melissa S. Lucash; John Hom

2012-01-01

Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and...

Theory and Programs for Dynamic Modeling of Tree Rings from Climate

Treesearch

Paul C. van Deusen; Jennifer Koretz

1988-01-01

Computer programs written in GAUSS(TM) for IBM compatible personal computers are described that perform dynamic tree ring modeling with climate data; the underlying theory is also described. The programs and a separate users manual are available from the authors, although users must have the GAUSS software package on their personal computer. An example application of...

Population Dynamics of Southern Pine Beetle in Forest Landscapes

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

Southern pine beetle (SPB) is an important pest of Southeastern United States pine forests. Periodic regional outbreaks are characterized by localized areas of tree mortality (infestations) surrounded by areas with little or no damage. Ultimately, this spatiotemporal pattern of tree mortality is driven by the dynamics of SPB populations—more specifically, by rates of...

Motion Tree Delineates Hierarchical Structure of Protein Dynamics Observed in Molecular Dynamics Simulation

PubMed Central

Moritsugu, Kei; Koike, Ryotaro; Yamada, Kouki; Kato, Hiroaki; Kidera, Akinori

2015-01-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of proteins provide important information to understand their functional mechanisms, which are, however, likely to be hidden behind their complicated motions with a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A straightforward and intuitive analysis of protein dynamics observed in MD simulation trajectories is therefore of growing significance with the large increase in both the simulation time and system size. In this study, we propose a novel description of protein motions based on the hierarchical clustering of fluctuations in the inter-atomic distances calculated from an MD trajectory, which constructs a single tree diagram, named a “Motion Tree”, to determine a set of rigid-domain pairs hierarchically along with associated inter-domain fluctuations. The method was first applied to the MD trajectory of substrate-free adenylate kinase to clarify the usefulness of the Motion Tree, which illustrated a clear-cut dynamics picture of the inter-domain motions involving the ATP/AMP lid and the core domain together with the associated amplitudes and correlations. The comparison of two Motion Trees calculated from MD simulations of ligand-free and -bound glutamine binding proteins clarified changes in inherent dynamics upon ligand binding appeared in both large domains and a small loop that stabilized ligand molecule. Another application to a huge protein, a multidrug ATP binding cassette (ABC) transporter, captured significant increases of fluctuations upon binding a drug molecule observed in both large scale inter-subunit motions and a motion localized at a transmembrane helix, which may be a trigger to the subsequent structural change from inward-open to outward-open states to transport the drug molecule. These applications demonstrated the capabilities of Motion Trees to provide an at-a-glance view of various sizes of functional motions inherent in the complicated MD trajectory. PMID:26148295

How does tree age influence damage and recovery in forests impacted by freezing rain and snow?

PubMed

Zhu, LiRong; Zhou, Ting; Chen, BaoMing; Peng, ShaoLin

2015-05-01

The response and recovery mechanisms of forests to damage from freezing rain and snow events are a key topic in forest research and management. However, the relationship between the degree of damage and tree age, i.e., whether seedlings, young trees, or adult trees are most vulnerable, remains unclear and is rarely reported. We investigated the effect of tree age on the degrees of vegetation damage and subsequent recovery in three subtropical forest types-coniferous, mixed, and broad-leaved-in the Tianjing Mountains, South China, after a series of rare icy rain and freezing snow events in 2008. The results showed that damage and recovery rates were both dependent on tree age, with the proportion of damaged vegetation increasing with age (estimated by diameter at breast height, DBH) in all three forest types and gradually plateauing. Significant variation occurred among forest types. Young trees in the coniferous forest were more vulnerable than those in the broad-leaved forest. The type of damage also varied with tree age in different ways in the three forest types. The proportion of young seedlings that were uprooted (the most severe type of damage) was highest in the coniferous forest. In the mixed forest, young trees were significantly more likely to be uprooted than seedlings and adult trees, while in the broad-leaved forest, the proportion of uprooted adult trees was significantly higher than that of seedlings and young trees. There were also differences among forest types in how tree age affected damage recovery. In the coniferous forest, the recovery rate of trees with broken trunks or crowns (DBH > 2.5 cm) increased with tree age. However, in the mixed and broad-leaved forests, no obvious correlation between the recovery rate of trees with broken trunks or crowns and tree age was observed. Trees with severe root damage did not recover; they were uprooted and died. In these forests, vegetation damage and recovery showed tree age dependencies, which varied with tree shape, forest type, and damage type. Understanding this dependency will guide restoration after freezing rain and snow disturbances.

A new framework for predicting how roots and microbes influence soil organic matter dynamics in forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R.; Midgley, M.; Brzostek, E. R.

2012-12-01

While it is well-established that tree species modify soil organic matter (SOM) through differences in leaf litter chemistry, far less is known about the role of roots and their microbial associates in influencing SOM dynamics. We investigated the extent to which temperate hardwood trees which associate with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi differ in their effects on SOM turnover from those associating with ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi using 1) root and fungal ingrowth cores, 2) experimental tree girdling and 3) fertilization additions. We conducted our research in the central hardwood forests of southern Indiana where a rich assemblage of AM (e.g. maples, ashes, tulip poplar, black cherry) and EM (e.g. oaks, hickories, beech, pine) tree species co-occur on soils developed from similar parent materials. Our results indicate that EM trees likely play a greater role in contributing to SOM turnover than AM trees as rhizosphere enzyme activities were greater in EM soils than AM soils, and both girdling and fertilization reduced enzyme activities in EM soils but not in AM soils. Although girdling and fertilization had little effect on enzyme activities in AM soils, soil respiration decreased suggesting that much of the carbon (C) allocated belowground was likely derived from roots rather than from mycorrhizal fungi. Collectively our results suggest AM and EM trees influence SOM dynamics in fundamentally unique ways, and that categorizing forests based on the relative abundance of AM and EM trees may provide a useful framework for predicting complex biogeochemical interactions between roots, microbes and SOM.

Enumerating Substituted Benzene Isomers of Tree-Like Chemical Graphs.

PubMed

Li, Jinghui; Nagamochi, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Tatsuya

2018-01-01

Enumeration of chemical structures is useful for drug design, which is one of the main targets of computational biology and bioinformatics. A chemical graph with no other cycles than benzene rings is called tree-like, and becomes a tree possibly with multiple edges if we contract each benzene ring into a single virtual atom of valence 6. All tree-like chemical graphs with a given tree representation are called the substituted benzene isomers of . When we replace each virtual atom in with a benzene ring to obtain a substituted benzene isomer, distinct isomers of are caused by the difference in arrangements of atom groups around a benzene ring. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm that enumerates all substituted benzene isomers of a given tree representation . Our algorithm first counts the number of all the isomers of the tree representation by a dynamic programming method. To enumerate all the isomers, for each , our algorithm then generates the th isomer by backtracking the counting phase of the dynamic programming. We also implemented our algorithm for computational experiments.

Evaluation of growth disturbances of Picea abies (L.) Karst. to disturbances caused by landslide movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šilhán, Karel

2017-01-01

Dendrogeomorphic methods are frequently used in landslide analyses. Although methods of landslide dating based on tree rings are well developed, they still indicated many questions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequently used theoretical scheme based on the event-response relationship. Seventy-four individuals of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) exhibiting visible external disturbance, were sampled on the Girová landslide (the largest historical flow-like landslide in the Czech Republic). This landslide reactivated in May 2010, and post-landslide tree growth responses were studied in detail. These growth responses were compared with the intensity and occurrence of visible external tree disturbance: tilted stems, damaged root systems, and decapitation. Twenty-nine trees (39.2%) died within one to four years following the 2010 landslide movement. The trees that died following the landslide movement were significantly younger and displayed significantly greater stem tilting than the live trees. Abrupt growth suppression was a more-frequent response among the dead trees, whereas growth release dominated among the live trees. Only two trees (2.7%) created no reaction wood in response to the landslide movement. Forty-four percent of the trees started to produce reaction wood structure after a delay, which generally spanned one year. Some eccentric growth was evident in the tree rings of the landslide year and was significant in the first years following the landslide movement. Missing rings were observed only on the upper sides of the stems, and no false tree rings were observed. The results confirm the general validity of event-response relationship, nevertheless this study points out the limitations and uncertainties of this generally accepted working scheme.

Channel-Dynamic Control on the Establishment of Riparian Trees After Large Floods in Northwestern California

Treesearch

Thomas E. Lisle

1989-01-01

Large floods in northwestern California in the past two decades have mobilized extensive areas of valley floors, removed streamside trees, and widened channels. Channel cross sections were surveyed to illustrate an hypothesis on the linkage between sediment transport, colonization of channel margins by trees, and streambank recovery. Riparian trees, e.g., white alder...

When a tree falls: Controls on wood decay predict standing dead tree fall and new risks in changing forests

Treesearch

Brad Oberle; Kiona Ogle; Amy E. Zanne; Christopher W. Woodall

2018-01-01

When standing dead trees (snags) fall, they have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Snag fall can redistribute wildlife habitat and impact public safety, while governing important carbon (C) cycle consequences of tree mortality because ground contact accelerates C emissions during deadwood decay. Managing the consequences of altered snag dynamics in changing forests...

Transitions from trees to cycles in adaptive flow networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, Erik A.; Klemm, Konstantin

2017-11-01

Transport networks are crucial to the functioning of natural and technological systems. Nature features transport networks that are adaptive over a vast range of parameters, thus providing an impressive level of robustness in supply. Theoretical and experimental studies have found that real-world transport networks exhibit both tree-like motifs and cycles. When the network is subject to load fluctuations, the presence of cyclic motifs may help to reduce flow fluctuations and, thus, render supply in the network more robust. While previous studies considered network topology via optimization principles, here, we take a dynamical systems approach and study a simple model of a flow network with dynamically adapting weights (conductances). We assume a spatially non-uniform distribution of rapidly fluctuating loads in the sinks and investigate what network configurations are dynamically stable. The network converges to a spatially non-uniform stable configuration composed of both cyclic and tree-like structures. Cyclic structures emerge locally in a transcritical bifurcation as the amplitude of the load fluctuations is increased. The resulting adaptive dynamics thus partitions the network into two distinct regions with cyclic and tree-like structures. The location of the boundary between these two regions is determined by the amplitude of the fluctuations. These findings may explain why natural transport networks display cyclic structures in the micro-vascular regions near terminal nodes, but tree-like features in the regions with larger veins.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters. Overall, the probability of detection of an event with a return period of 10 years is 62%. 44% of all 10-year flood peaks can be detected with a timing error of 2 hours or less. These results indicate that the modeling system can provide useful information about the timing and magnitude of flood events at ungauged sites.

Response of the coupled M-I-T system to the March 17, 2015 solar wind dynamic pressure enhancement event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, D. S.; Zou, S.; Slavin, J. A.; Ridley, A. J.

2017-12-01

When the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced, it could perturb the global magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (M-I-T) system. The most notable indicators of such disruptions are changes in Field-Aligned Currents (FACs), ionospheric convection patterns and magnetic perturbations observed by ground magnetometers. The link between dynamic pressure enhancements and FACs has been well established, but studies on how these FACs affect the ionosphere-thermosphere system are very limited. In order to understand the large-scale dynamic processes in the M-I-T system due to the solar wind dynamic pressure enhancement, we study the 17 March 2015 event in detail. This is one of the most geoeffective events of the solar cycle 24 with Dst minimum of -222 nT. The Wind spacecraft recorded a two-step increment in the solar wind dynamic pressure, from 2 nPa to 12 nPa within 3 minutes, while the IMF Bz stayed northward. We used the University of Michigan Block Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS'R'US), global MHD code to study the generation and propagation of perturbations associated with the compression of the magnetosphere. To effectively represent the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system, we included the Global Magnetosphere (GM), Inner Magnetosphere (IM) and Ionospheric electrodynamic (IE) modules. 600 uniformly distributed virtual magnetometers are included in the simulation to identify the magnetic perturbations associated with the FAC pairs as well as their temporal and spatial variations. In addition, we used the IE module output to drive the University of Michigan Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) to study how the I-T system responds to dynamic pressure enhancement. We show that as a result of the solar wind dynamic pressure enhancement, two pair of perturbation FACs develop in addition to the NBZ current system. These FACs significantly alter the ionospheric convection profile and create elongated vortices that propagate from dayside to nightside. The ion temperature at the location of these vortices is significantly and immediately enhanced. We analyzed the altitude profiles of plasma temperature, electron density and joule heating to quantitatively understand energy deposition during this process, and compare them with observations from ground-based incoherent scatter radar.

Drought frequency in central California since 101 B.C. recordered in giant sequoia tree rings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, M.K.; Brown, P.M.

1992-01-01

Well replicated tree-ring width index chronologies have been developed for giant sequoia at three sites in the Sierra Nevada, California. Extreme low-growth events in these chronologies correspond with regional drought events in the twentieth century in the San Joaquin drainage, in which the giant sequoia sites are located. This relationship is based upon comparison of tree-ring indices with August Palmer Drought Severity Indices for California Climate Division 5. Ring-width indices in the lowest decile from each site were compared. The frequency of low-growth events which occurred at all three sites in the same year is reconstructed from 101 B.C. tomore » A.D. 1988. The inferred frequency of severe drought events changes through time, sometimes suddenly. The period from roughly 1850 to 1950 had one of the lowest frequencies of drought of any one hundred year period in the 2089 year record. The twentieth century so far has had a below-average frequency of extreme droughts. 26 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.« less

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding.

PubMed

ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R; van Gelder, P H A J M

2009-01-01

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk generally focus on heavy storm events as the principal cause of flooding. Conversely, fault tree analysis is a technique that aims at modelling all potential causes of flooding. It quantifies both overall flood probability and relative contributions of individual causes of flooding. This paper presents a fault model for urban flooding and an application to the case of Haarlem, a city of 147,000 inhabitants. Data from a complaint register, rainfall gauges and hydrodynamic model calculations are used to quantify probabilities of basic events in the fault tree. This results in a flood probability of 0.78/week for Haarlem. It is shown that gully pot blockages contribute to 79% of flood incidents, whereas storm events contribute only 5%. This implies that for this case more efficient gully pot cleaning is a more effective strategy to reduce flood probability than enlarging drainage system capacity. Whether this is also the most cost-effective strategy can only be decided after risk assessment has been complemented with a quantification of consequences of both types of events. To do this will be the next step in this study.

Using Boosting Decision Trees in Gravitational Wave Searches triggered by Gamma-ray Bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuraw, Sarah; LIGO Collaboration

2015-04-01

The search for gravitational wave bursts requires the ability to distinguish weak signals from background detector noise. Gravitational wave bursts are characterized by their transient nature, making them particularly difficult to detect as they are similar to non-Gaussian noise fluctuations in the detector. The Boosted Decision Tree method is a powerful machine learning algorithm which uses Multivariate Analysis techniques to explore high-dimensional data sets in order to distinguish between gravitational wave signal and background detector noise. It does so by training with known noise events and simulated gravitational wave events. The method is tested using waveform models and compared with the performance of the standard gravitational wave burst search pipeline for Gamma-ray Bursts. It is shown that the method is able to effectively distinguish between signal and background events under a variety of conditions and over multiple Gamma-ray Burst events. This example demonstrates the usefulness and robustness of the Boosted Decision Tree and Multivariate Analysis techniques as a detection method for gravitational wave bursts. LIGO, UMass, PREP, NEGAP.

Fast content-based image retrieval using dynamic cluster tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jinyan; Sun, Jizhou; Wu, Rongteng; Zhang, Yaping

2008-03-01

A novel content-based image retrieval data structure is developed in present work. It can improve the searching efficiency significantly. All images are organized into a tree, in which every node is comprised of images with similar features. Images in a children node have more similarity (less variance) within themselves in relative to its parent. It means that every node is a cluster and each of its children nodes is a sub-cluster. Information contained in a node includes not only the number of images, but also the center and the variance of these images. Upon the addition of new images, the tree structure is capable of dynamically changing to ensure the minimization of total variance of the tree. Subsequently, a heuristic method has been designed to retrieve the information from this tree. Given a sample image, the probability of a tree node that contains the similar images is computed using the center of the node and its variance. If the probability is higher than a certain threshold, this node will be recursively checked to locate the similar images. So will its children nodes if their probability is also higher than that threshold. If no sufficient similar images were founded, a reduced threshold value would be adopted to initiate a new seeking from the root node. The search terminates when it found sufficient similar images or the threshold value is too low to give meaningful sense. Experiments have shown that the proposed dynamic cluster tree is able to improve the searching efficiency notably.

Dynamic changes in DNA demethylation in the tree shrew (Tupaia belangeri chinensis) brain during postnatal development and aging.

PubMed

Wei, Shu; Hua, Hai-Rong; Chen, Qian-Quan; Zhang, Ying; Chen, Fei; Li, Shu-Qing; Li, Fan; Li, Jia-Li

2017-03-18

Brain development and aging are associated with alterations in multiple epigenetic systems, including DNA methylation and demethylation patterns. Here, we observed that the levels of the 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) ten-eleven translocation (TET) enzyme-mediated active DNA demethylation products were dynamically changed and involved in postnatal brain development and aging in tree shrews ( Tupaia belangeri chinensis ). The levels of 5hmC in multiple anatomic structures showed a gradual increase throughout postnatal development, whereas a significant decrease in 5hmC was found in several brain regions in aged tree shrews, including in the prefrontal cortex and hippocampus, but not the cerebellum. Active changes in Tet mRNA levels indicated that TET2 and TET3 predominantly contributed to the changes in 5hmC levels. Our findings provide new insight into the dynamic changes in 5hmC levels in tree shrew brains during postnatal development and aging processes.

How Much Water Trees Access and How It Determines Forest Response to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdanier, A. B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

Forests are transformed by drought as water availability drops below levels where trees of different sizes and species can maintain productivity and survive. Physiological studies have provided detailed understanding of how species differences affect drought vulnerability but they offer almost no insights about the amount of water different trees can access beyond general statements about rooting depth. While canopy architecture provides strong evidence for light availability aboveground, belowground moisture availability remains essentially unknown. For example, do larger trees always have greater access to soil moisture? In temperate mixed forests, the ability to access a large soil moisture pool could minimize damage during drought events and facilitate post-drought recovery, potentially at the expense of neighboring trees. We show that the pool of accessible soil moisture can be estimated for trees with data on whole-plant transpiration and that this data can be used to predict water availability for forest stands. We estimate soil water availability with a Bayesian state-space model based on a simple water balance, where cumulative depressions in water use below potential transpiration indicate soil resource depletion. We compare trees of different sizes and species, extend these findings to the entire stand, and connect them to our recent research showing that tree survival after drought depends on post-drought growth recovery and local moisture availability. These results can be used to predict competitive abilities for soil water, understand ecohydrological variation within stands, and identify trees that are at risk of damage from future drought events.

Anomalous, extreme weather disrupts obligate seed dispersal mutualism: snow in a subtropical forest ecosystem.

PubMed

Zhou, Youbing; Newman, Chris; Chen, Jin; Xie, Zongqiang; Macdonald, David W

2013-09-01

Ongoing global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, impacting population dynamics and community structure. There is, however, a critical lack of case studies considering how climatic perturbations affect biotic interactions. Here, we document how an obligate seed dispersal mutualism was disrupted by a temporally anomalous and meteorologically extreme interlude of unseasonably frigid weather, with accompanying snowstorms, in subtropical China, during January-February 2008. Based on the analysis of 5892 fecal samples (representing six mammalian seed dispersers), this event caused a substantial disruption to the relative seed dispersal function for the raisin tree Hovenia dulcis from prestorm 6.29 (2006) and 11.47 (2007), down to 0.35 during the storm (2008). Crucially, this was due to impacts on mammalian seed dispersers and not due to a paucity of fruit, where 4.63 fruit per branch were available in January 2008, vs. 3.73 in 2006 and 3.58 in 2007. An induced dietary shift occurred among omnivorous carnivores during this event, from the consumption fruit to small mammals and birds, reducing their role in seed dispersal substantially. Induced range shift extinguished the functionality of herbivorous mammals completely, however, seed dispersal function was compensated in part by three omnivorous carnivores during poststorm years, and thus while the mutualism remained intact it was enacted by a narrower assemblage of species, rendering the system more vulnerable to extrinsic perturbations. The storm's extended effects also had anthropogenic corollaries - migrating ungulates becoming exposed to heightened levels of illegal hunting - causing long-term modification to the seed dispersal community and mutualism dynamics. Furthermore, degraded forests proved especially vulnerable to the storm's effects. Considering increasing climate variability and anthropogenic disturbance, the impacts of such massive, aberrant events warrant conservation concern, while affording unique insights into the stability of mutualisms and the processes that structure biodiversity and mediate ecosystem dynamics. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

2010-05-01

Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region changed from warm temperate forest during the last glacial maximum to the grassland and dry shrubland, suggesting a drier climate during Heinrich event 1. In south-western Africa savanna and dry woodland changed into boreal forest and boreal-temperate forest suggesting wetter conditions. The biomes diagnosed from the control-run, were compared to the modern vegetation reconstruction of BIOME 4 (http://www.bridge.bris.ac.uk/resources/Databases/BIOMES_data). Consistent biome patterns were simulated for the tropical forests of western and south-western Africa and the grasslands of northern Africa. On the other hand, in southern Europe, where the BIOME 4 vegetation reconstruction is dominated by warm temperate and temperate forest, our model shows a strong bias towards the grassland.

Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies: a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees.

PubMed

Martínez-Aquino, Andrés

2016-08-01

Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host-parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for example, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as estimates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a "compass" when "walking" through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees.

Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies: a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host–parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for example, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as estimates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a “compass” when “walking” through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees. PMID:29491928

Comparing Phylogenetic Trees by Matching Nodes Using the Transfer Distance Between Partitions.

PubMed

Bogdanowicz, Damian; Giaro, Krzysztof

2017-05-01

Ability to quantify dissimilarity of different phylogenetic trees describing the relationship between the same group of taxa is required in various types of phylogenetic studies. For example, such metrics are used to assess the quality of phylogeny construction methods, to define optimization criteria in supertree building algorithms, or to find horizontal gene transfer (HGT) events. Among the set of metrics described so far in the literature, the most commonly used seems to be the Robinson-Foulds distance. In this article, we define a new metric for rooted trees-the Matching Pair (MP) distance. The MP metric uses the concept of the minimum-weight perfect matching in a complete bipartite graph constructed from partitions of all pairs of leaves of the compared phylogenetic trees. We analyze the properties of the MP metric and present computational experiments showing its potential applicability in tasks related to finding the HGT events.

Dynamic replanning of 3D automated reconstruction using situation graph trees and illumination adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Sophie; Far, Aïcha Beya; Hirsch, Ernest

2007-01-01

This paper presents an original approach for the optimal 3D reconstruction of manufactured workpieces based on a priori planification of the task, enhanced on-line through dynamic adjustment of the lighting conditions, and built around a cognitive intelligent sensory system using so-called Situation Graph Trees. The system takes explicitely structural knowledge related to image acquisition conditions, type of illumination sources, contents of the scene (e. g., CAD models and tolerance information), etc. into account. The principle of the approach relies on two steps. First, a socalled initialization phase, leading to the a priori task plan, collects this structural knowledge. This knowledge is conveniently encoded, as a sub-part, in the Situation Graph Tree building the backbone of the planning system specifying exhaustively the behavior of the application. Second, the image is iteratively evaluated under the control of this Situation Graph Tree. The information describing the quality of the piece to analyze is thus extracted and further exploited for, e. g., inspection tasks. Lastly, the approach enables dynamic adjustment of the Situation Graph Tree, enabling the system to adjust itself to the actual application run-time conditions, thus providing the system with a self-learning capability.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, G.; Frank, D.; Buentgen, U.; Dobrovolný, P.; Brázdil, R.; Pfister, C.; Esper, J.

2009-09-01

In this project three different summer temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies across the European Alpine region were compiled and analyzed to make a calendar of extreme warm and cold summers. We identified 100 extreme events during the past millennium from the tree ring data, and 44 extreme years during the 1550-2003 period based upon tree-ring, documentary and instrumental evidence. Comparisons with long instrumental series and documentary evidence verify the tree-ring extremes and indicate the possibility to use this dataset towards a better understanding of the characteristics prior to the instrumental period. Potential links between the occurrence of extreme events over Alps and anomalous large-scale patterns were explored and indicate that the average pattern of the 20 warmest summers (over the 1700-2002 period) describes maximum positive anomalies over Central Europe, whereas the average pattern of the 20 coldest summers shows maximum negative anomalies over Western Europe. Challenges with the present approach included determining an appropriate classification scheme for extreme events and the development of a methodology able to identify and characterize the occurrence of extreme episodes back in time. As a future step, our approach will be extended to help verify the sparse documentary data from the beginning of the past millennium and will be used in conjunction with climate models to assess model capabilities in reproducing characteristics of temperature extremes.

Tree rings reveal a major episode of forest mortality in the late 18th century on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ouya; Alfaro, René I.; Zhang, Qi-Bin

2018-04-01

There is a growing research interest on studying forest mortality in relation to ongoing climate warming, but little is known about such events in past history. The study of past forest mortality provides valuable information for determining baselines that establish the normal parameters of functioning in forest ecosystems. Here we report a major episode of previously undocumented forest mortality in the late 18th century on the northern Tibetan Plateau, China. The event was not spatially uniform, in which a more severe mortality happened in dryer sites. We used dendrochronology to compare radial growth trajectories of individual trees from 11 sites in the region, and found that many trees showed positive growth trend, or growth release, during 1796-1800 CE. Growth releases are a proxy indicator of stand thinning caused by tree mortality. The growth release was preceded by an almost two-decade long growth reduction. Long-term drought related to weakened North Atlantic Oscillation and frequent El Niño events are the likely factors causing the tree mortality in a large area of the plateau. Our findings suggest that, besides the effect of drought in the late 18th century, large-scale forest mortality may be an additional factor that further deteriorated the environment and increased the intensity of dust storms.

Updated precipitation reconstruction (AD 1482-2012) for Huashan, north-central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feng; Zhang, Ruibo; Wang, Huiqin; Qin, Li; Yuan, Yujiang

2016-02-01

We developed a tree-ring width chronology from pine trees ( Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandii) stand near the peaks of Huashan, Shaanxi, north-central China. Growth-climate response analyses showed that the radial growth of pine trees is mainly influenced by April-June precipitation. A model to reconstruct precipitation based on tree widths was constructed, accounting for 55 % of the instrumental variance during the period 1953-2012. Spatial correlation analyses between the reconstruction and observed gridded precipitation data shows that the seasonal precipitation reconstruction captures regional climatic variations over north China. Compared with the historical archives and other tree-ring records in north China, many large-scale drought events, linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), were found. Many of these events have had profound impacts on the people of north China over the past several centuries. Composite maps of sea surface temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights for selected extremely dry and wet years in Huashan show characteristics similar to those related to the ENSO patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 531-year precipitation reconstruction for Huashan provides a long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in north China, and is useful to guide expectations of future variability, and helps us to address climate change.

Biological control reduces growth, and alters water relations of the saltcedar tree (Tamarix spp.) in western Nevada, USA

Treesearch

R.R. Pattison; C.M. D' Antonio; T.L. Dudley

2011-01-01

We monitored the impacts of a biological control agent, the saltcedar leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on the saltcedar tree (Tamarix spp.) at two sites (Humboldt and Walker rivers) in Nevada, USA. At the Humboldt site trees that had experienced three to four defoliation events had more negative water potentials and lower...

Vernal freeze damage and genetic variation alter tree growth, chemistry, and insect interactions.

PubMed

Rubert-Nason, Kennedy F; Couture, John J; Gryzmala, Elizabeth A; Townsend, Philip A; Lindroth, Richard L

2017-11-01

Anticipated consequences of climate change in temperate regions include early spring warmup punctuated by intermittent hard freezes. Warm weather accelerates leaf flush in perennial woody species, potentially exposing vulnerable young tissues to damaging frosts. We employed a 2 × 6 randomized factorial design to examine how the interplay of vernal (springtime) freeze damage and genetic variation in a hardwood species (Populus tremuloides) influences tree growth, phytochemistry, and interactions with an insect herbivore (Chaitophorus stevensis). Acute effects of freezing included defoliation and mortality. Surviving trees exhibited reduced growth and altered biomass distribution. Reflushed leaves on these trees had lower mass per area, lower lignin concentrations, and higher nitrogen concentrations, altered chemical defence profiles, and supported faster aphid population growth. Many effects varied among plant genotypes and were related with herbivore performance. This study suggests that a single damaging vernal freeze event can alter tree-insect interactions through effects on plant growth and chemistry. Differential responses of various genotypes to freeze damage suggest that more frequent vernal freeze events could also influence natural selection, favouring trees with greater freeze hardiness, and more resistance or tolerance to herbivores following damage. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of hybridization in facilitating tree invasion

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Hybridization events can generate additional genetic diversity upon which natural selection can act and at times enhance invasiveness of the species. Invasive tree species are a growing ecological concern worldwide, and some of these invasions involve hybridization events pre- or post-introduction. There are 20 hybrid invasive tree taxa in 15 genera (11 plant families) discussed here. When reported, abundance of hybrids comprised 10–100 % of an invasion, the remainder being parental taxa. In seven hybrid taxa, researchers identified phenotypes that may make hybrids better invaders. Twelve hybrid tree taxa involved introgression and more hybrids involved all non-native taxa than native × non-native taxa. Three hybrid tree taxa were the result of intentional crosses, and all hybrid taxa involved intentional introduction of either one or more parental taxon or the hybrid itself. The knowledge gaps present in some hybrid tree taxa can weaken our effectiveness in predicting and controlling invasions, as hybrids can add a level of complexity to an invasion by being morphologically cryptic, causing genetic pollution of a native parental taxon, presenting novel genotypes for which there may not be coevolved biological control agents, or evolving adaptive traits through increased genetic variation. PMID:28028055

Temporal dynamics of arthropods on six tree species in dry woodlands on the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico

Treesearch

W. Beltran; Joseph Wunderle Jr.

2014-01-01

The seasonal dynamics of foliage arthropod populations are poorly studied in tropical dry forests despite the importance of these studies for understanding arthropod population responses to environmental change.We monitored the abundance, temporal distributions, and body size of arthropods in five naturalized alien and one native tree species to characterize arthropod...

Landscape context and long-term tree influences shape the dynamics of forest-meadow ecotones in mountain ecosystems

Treesearch

R.E. Haugo; C.B. Halpern; J.D. Bakker

2011-01-01

Forest-meadow ecotones are prominent and dynamic features of mountain ecosystems. Understanding how vegetation changes are shaped by long-term interactions with trees and are mediated by the physical environment is critical to predicting future trends in biological diversity across these landscapes. We examined 26 yr of vegetation change (1983-2009) across 20 forest-...

Dynamics of stem water uptake among isohydric and anisohydric species experiencing a severe drought

Treesearch

Koong Yi; Danilo Dragoni; Richard P. Phillips; Daniel Tyler Roman; Kimberly A. Novick

2017-01-01

Predicting the impact of drought on forest ecosystem processes requires an understanding of trees' species-specific responses to drought, especially in the Eastern USA, where species composition is highly dynamic due to historical changes in land use and fire regime. Here, we adapted a framework that classifies trees' water-use strategy along the spectrum of...

Tree-ring δ13C and δ18O, leaf δ13C and wood and leaf N status demonstrate tree growth strategies and predict susceptibility to disturbance

PubMed Central

Billings, S.A.; Boone, A.S.; Stephen, F.M.

2016-01-01

Understanding how tree growth strategies may influence tree susceptibility to disturbance is an important goal, especially given projected increases in diverse ecological disturbances this century. We use growth responses of tree rings to climate, relationships between tree-ring stable isotopic signatures of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O), wood nitrogen concentration [N], and contemporary leaf [N] and δ13C values to assess potential historic drivers of tree photosynthesis in dying and apparently healthy co-occurring northern red oak (Quercus rubra L. (Fagaceae)) during a region-wide oak decline event in Arkansas, USA. Bole growth of both healthy and dying trees responded negatively to drought severity (Palmer Drought Severity Index) and temperature; healthy trees exhibited a positive, but small, response to growing season precipitation. Contrary to expectations, tree-ring δ13C did not increase with drought severity. A significantly positive relationship between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O was evident in dying trees (P < 0.05) but not in healthy trees. Healthy trees’ wood exhibited lower [N] than that of dying trees throughout most of their lives (P < 0.05), and we observed a significant, positive relationship (P < 0.05) in healthy trees between contemporary leaf δ13C and leaf N (by mass), but not in dying trees. Our work provides evidence that for plants in which strong relationships between δ13C and δ18O are not evident, δ13C may be governed by plant N status. The data further imply that historic photosynthesis in healthy trees was linked to N status and, perhaps, C sink strength to a greater extent than in dying trees, in which tree-ring stable isotopes suggest that historic photosynthesis was governed primarily by stomatal regulation. This, in turn, suggests that assessing the relative dominance of photosynthetic capacity vs stomatal regulation as drivers of trees’ C accrual may be a feasible means of predicting tree responses to some disturbance events. Our work demonstrates that a dual isotope, tree-ring approach can be integrated with tree N status to begin to unravel a fundamental question in forest ecology: why do some trees die during a disturbance, while other conspecifics with apparently similar access to resources remain healthy? PMID:26960389

How different are the results acquired from mathematical and subjective methods in dendrogeomorphology? Insights from landslide movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šilhán, Karel

2016-01-01

Knowledge of past landslide activity is crucial for understanding landslide behaviour and for modelling potential future landslide occurrence. Dendrogeomorphic approaches represent the most precise methods of landslide dating (where trees annually create tree-rings in the timescale of up to several hundred years). Despite the advantages of these methods, many open questions remain. One of the less researched uncertainties, and the focus of this study, is the impact of two common methods of geomorphic signal extraction on the spatial and temporal results of landslide reconstruction. In total, 93 Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees were sampled at one landslide location dominated by block-type movements in the forefield of the Orlické hory Mts., Bohemian Massif. Landslide signals were examined by the classical subjective method based on reaction (compression) wood analysis and by a numerical method based on eccentric growth analysis. The chronology of landslide movements obtained by the mathematical method resulted in twice the number of events detected compared to the subjective method. This finding indicates that eccentric growth is a more accurate indicator for landslide movements than the classical analysis of reaction wood. The reconstructed spatial activity of landslide movements shows a similar distribution of recurrence intervals (Ri) for both methods. The differences (maximally 30% of the total Ri ranges) in results obtained by both methods may be caused by differences in the ability of trees to react to tilting of their stems by a specific growth response (reaction wood formation or eccentric growth). Finally, the ability of trees to record tilting events (by both growth responses) in their tree-ring series was analysed for different decades of tree life. The highest sensitivity to external tilting events occurred at tree ages from 70 to 80 years for reaction wood formation and from 80 to 90 years for eccentric growth response. This means that the ability of P. abies to record geomorphic signals varies with not only eccentric growth responses but also with age.

Can Sap Flow Help Us to Better Understand Transpiration Patterns in Landscapes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassler, S. K.; Weiler, M.; Blume, T.

2017-12-01

Transpiration is a key process in the hydrological cycle and a sound understanding and quantification of transpiration and its spatial variability is essential for management decisions and for improving the parameterisation of hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models. At the tree scale, transpiration is commonly estimated by measuring sap flow. Besides evaporative demand and water availability, tree-specific characteristics such as species, size or social status, stand-specific characteristics such as basal area or stand density and site-specific characteristics such as geology, slope position or aspect control sap flow of individual trees. However, little is known about the relative importance or the dynamic interplay of these controls. We studied these influences with multiple linear regression models to explain the variability of sap velocity measurements in 61 beech and oak trees, located at 24 sites spread over a 290 km²-catchment in Luxembourg. For each of 132 consecutive days of the growing season of 2014 we applied linear models to the daily spatial pattern of sap velocity and determined the importance of the different predictors. By upscaling sap velocities to the tree level with the help of species-dependent empirical estimates for sapwood area we also examined patterns of sap flow as a more direct representation of transpiration. Results indicate that a combination of mainly tree- and site-specific factors controls sap velocity patterns in this landscape, namely tree species, tree diameter, geology and aspect. For sap flow, the site-specific predictors provided the largest contribution to the explained variance, however, in contrast to the sap velocity analysis, geology was more important than aspect. Spatial variability of atmospheric demand and soil moisture explained only a small fraction of the variance. However, the temporal dynamics of the explanatory power of the tree-specific characteristics, especially species, were correlated to the temporal dynamics of potential evaporation. We conclude that spatial representation of transpiration in models could benefit from including patterns according to tree and site characteristics.

Comparing tree foliage biomass models fitted to a multispecies, felled-tree biomass dataset for the United States

Treesearch

Brian J. Clough; Matthew B. Russell; Grant M. Domke; Christopher W. Woodall; Philip J. Radtke

2016-01-01

tEstimation of live tree biomass is an important task for both forest carbon accounting and studies of nutri-ent dynamics in forest ecosystems. In this study, we took advantage of an extensive felled-tree database(with 2885 foliage biomass observations) to compare different models and grouping schemes based onphylogenetic and geographic variation for predicting foliage...

Dynamics of transpiration, sap flow and use of stored water in tropical forest canopy trees.

Treesearch

Frederick C. Meinzer; Shelley A. James; Guillermo Goldstein

2004-01-01

In large trees the daily onset of transpiration causes water to be withdrawn from internal storage compartments resulting in lags between changes in transpiration and sap flow at the base of the tree. We measured time courses of sap flow, hydraulic resistance, plant water potential and stomatal resistance in co-occuring tropical forest canopy trees with trunk diameters...

Southern Pine Beetle Population Dynamics in Trees

Treesearch

Fred M. Stephen

2011-01-01

Successful mass attack of a pine tree by the southern pine beetle (SPB) results in the tree’s death and provides opportunity for colonization of the new phloem resource and reproduction by a new generation of SPBs plus hundreds of associated species of insects, mites, fungi, and nematodes. The within-tree portions of the SPB life history can be divided into component...

Simulated cavity tree dynamics under alternative timber harvest regimes

Treesearch

Zhaofei Fan; Stephen R Shifley; Frank R Thompson; David R Larsen

2004-01-01

We modeled cavity tree abundance on a landscape as a function of forest stand age classes and as a function of aggregate stand size classes.We explored the impact of five timber harvest regimes on cavity tree abundance on a 3261 ha landscape in southeast Missouri, USA, by linking the stand level cavity tree distribution model to the landscape age structure simulated by...

Assessing age- and silt index-independent diameter growth models of individual-tree Southern Appalachian hardwoods

Treesearch

Henry W. Mcnab; Thomas F. Lloyd

1999-01-01

Models of forest vegetation dynamics based on characteristics of individual trees are more suitable to predicting growth of multiple species and age classes than those based on stands. The objective of this study was to assess age- and site index-independent relationships between periodic diameter increment and tree and site effects for 11 major hardwood tree species....

Regional reconstruction of flash flood history in the Guadarrama range (Central System, Spain).

PubMed

Rodriguez-Morata, C; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J A; Trappmann, D; Beniston, M; Stoffel, M

2016-04-15

Flash floods are a common natural hazard in Mediterranean mountain environments and responsible for serious economic and human disasters. The study of flash flood dynamics and their triggers is a key issue; however, the retrieval of historical data is often limited in mountain regions as a result of short time series and the systematic lack of historical data. In this study, we attempt to overcome data deficiency by supplementing existing records with dendrogeomorphic techniques which were employed in seven mountain streams along the northern slopes of the Guadarrama Mountain range. Here we present results derived from the tree-ring analysis of 117 samples from 63 Pinus sylvestris L. trees injured by flash floods, to complement existing flash flood records covering the last ~200years and comment on their hydro-meteorological triggers. To understand the varying number of reconstructed flash flood events in each of the catchments, we also performed a comparative analysis of geomorphic catchment characteristics, land use evolution and forest management. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of dendrogeomorphic techniques applied in managed forests. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drug safety data mining with a tree-based scan statistic.

PubMed

Kulldorff, Martin; Dashevsky, Inna; Avery, Taliser R; Chan, Arnold K; Davis, Robert L; Graham, David; Platt, Richard; Andrade, Susan E; Boudreau, Denise; Gunter, Margaret J; Herrinton, Lisa J; Pawloski, Pamala A; Raebel, Marsha A; Roblin, Douglas; Brown, Jeffrey S

2013-05-01

In post-marketing drug safety surveillance, data mining can potentially detect rare but serious adverse events. Assessing an entire collection of drug-event pairs is traditionally performed on a predefined level of granularity. It is unknown a priori whether a drug causes a very specific or a set of related adverse events, such as mitral valve disorders, all valve disorders, or different types of heart disease. This methodological paper evaluates the tree-based scan statistic data mining method to enhance drug safety surveillance. We use a three-million-member electronic health records database from the HMO Research Network. Using the tree-based scan statistic, we assess the safety of selected antifungal and diabetes drugs, simultaneously evaluating overlapping diagnosis groups at different granularity levels, adjusting for multiple testing. Expected and observed adverse event counts were adjusted for age, sex, and health plan, producing a log likelihood ratio test statistic. Out of 732 evaluated disease groupings, 24 were statistically significant, divided among 10 non-overlapping disease categories. Five of the 10 signals are known adverse effects, four are likely due to confounding by indication, while one may warrant further investigation. The tree-based scan statistic can be successfully applied as a data mining tool in drug safety surveillance using observational data. The total number of statistical signals was modest and does not imply a causal relationship. Rather, data mining results should be used to generate candidate drug-event pairs for rigorous epidemiological studies to evaluate the individual and comparative safety profiles of drugs. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fire safety in transit systems fault tree analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-09-01

Fire safety countermeasures applicable to transit vehicles are identified and evaluated. This document contains fault trees which illustrate the sequences of events which may lead to a transit-fire related casualty. A description of the basis for the...

Increased Frequency of Large Blowdown Formation in Years With Hotter Dry Seasons in the Northwestern Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rifai, S. W.; Anderson, L. O.; Bohlman, S.

2015-12-01

Blowdowns, which are large tree mortality events caused by downbursts, create large pulses of carbon emissions in the short term and alter successional dynamics and species composition of forests, thus affecting long term biogeochemical cycling of tropical forests. Changing climate, especially increasing temperatures and frequency of extreme climate events, may cause changes in the frequency of blowdowns, but there has been little spatiotemporal analysis to associate the interannual variation in the frequency of blowdowns with annual climate parameters. We mapped blowdowns greater than 25 ha using a time series of Landsat images from 1984-2012 in the northwestern Amazon to estimate the annual size distribution of these blowdowns. The difference in forest area affected by blowdowns between the years with the highest and lowest blowdown activity were on the order of 10 - 30 times greater depending on location. Spatially, we found the probability of large blowdowns to be higher in regions with higher annual rainfall. Temporally, we found a positive correlation between the probability of large blowdown events and maximum dry season air temperature (R2 = 0.1-0.46). Mean and maximum blowdown size also increased with maximum dry season air temperature. The strength of these relationships varied between scene locations which may be related to cloud cover obscuring the land surface in the satellite images, or biophysical characteristics of the sites. Potentially, elevated dry season temperatures during the transition from the dry season to the wet season (October - December) may exacerbate atmospheric instabilities, which promote downburst occurrences. Most global circulation models predict dry season air temperatures to increase 2-5 ℃ in the northwestern Amazon by 2050. Should the blowdown disturbance regime continue increasing with elevated dry season temperatures, the northwestern Amazon is likely to experience more catastrophic tree mortality events which has direct consequences for both the carbon emissions and carbon storage capacity of the northwestern Amazon.

A Multi-stakeholder Approach to Moving Beyond Tree Mortality in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balachowski, J.; Buluc, L.; Fischer, C.; Ko, J.; Ostoja, S.

2017-12-01

The US Forest Service has estimated that 102 million trees have died in California since 2010. This die off event has been attributed to the combined effects of historical land management practices, fire suppression, insect outbreaks, and climate-related stressors. This tree mortality event represents the largest and most significant ecological disturbance in California in centuries, if not longer. Both scientists and managers recognize the need to rethink our approach to forest management in the face of a changing climate and increasingly frequent, uncharacteristically large wildfires, while budgets and staffing capacity continue to decrease. Addressing the uncertainly in managing under climate change with fewer financial resources will require multiple partners and stakeholders—including federal and state agencies, local governments, and non-governmental organizations—to work together to identify common goals and paths moving forward. The USDA California Climate Hub and USFS Region 5 convened a symposium on drought and tree mortality in July 2017. With nearly 170 attendees across a wide range of sectors, the event provided a meaningful opportunity for reflection, analysis, and consideration of next steps. Among the outcomes of this symposium was the identification of areas in which our capacity for individual and synergistic action is stronger, and those in which it is lacking that will thus require additional attention and effort. From this symposium, which included a series of smaller, stakeholder and partner working groups, we collectively identified research and information needs, possible policy adjustments, future management actions, and funding needs and opportunities. Here, we present these findings and suggest approaches for addressing the current tree mortality event based on the shared interests of multiple, diverse stakeholder groups.

The dynamics of strangling among forest trees.

PubMed

Okamoto, Kenichi W

2015-11-07

Strangler trees germinate and grow on other trees, eventually enveloping and potentially even girdling their hosts. This allows them to mitigate fitness costs otherwise incurred by germinating and competing with other trees on the forest floor, as well as minimize risks associated with host tree-fall. If stranglers can themselves host other strangler trees, they may not even seem to need non-stranglers to persist. Yet despite their high fitness potential, strangler trees neither dominate the communities in which they occur nor is the strategy particularly common outside of figs (genus Ficus). Here we analyze how dynamic interactions between strangling and non-strangling trees can shape the adaptive landscape for strangling mutants and mutant trees that have lost the ability to strangle. We find a threshold which strangler germination rates must exceed for selection to favor the evolution of strangling, regardless of how effectively hemiepiphytic stranglers may subsequently replace their hosts. This condition describes the magnitude of the phenotypic displacement in the ability to germinate on other trees necessary for invasion by a mutant tree that could potentially strangle its host following establishment as an epiphyte. We show how the relative abilities of strangling and non-strangling trees to occupy empty sites can govern whether strangling is an evolutionarily stable strategy, and obtain the conditions for strangler coexistence with non-stranglers. We then elucidate when the evolution of strangling can disrupt stable coexistence between commensal epiphytic ancestors and their non-strangling host trees. This allows us to highlight parallels between the invasion fitness of strangler trees arising from commensalist ancestors, and cases where strangling can arise in concert with the evolution of hemiepiphytism among free-standing ancestors. Finally, we discuss how our results can inform the evolutionary ecology of antagonistic interactions more generally. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flowering, die-back and recovery of a semelparous woody bamboo in the Atlantic Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montti, Lía; Campanello, Paula I.; Goldstein, Guillermo

2011-07-01

Chusquea ramosissima is a semelparous woody bamboo growing in the understory of the semideciduous Atlantic Forest that increases in abundance after disturbance and consequently has profound effects on vegetation dynamics. Flowering and death of C. ramosissima may open a window of opportunity leaving space vacant for the recruitment of tree seedlings. We describe the flowering pattern and seedling demography of this species at different spatio-temporal scales between the years 2001 and 2009, and evaluate if tree seedling abundance of canopy species increased after the flowering event. At a landscape scale, flowering sites were interspersed with sites that did not flower. At a local scale, the flowering extended over 5 years, with flowering and non-flowering culms intermingled, also in small patches (i.e., 4 m 2). Seeds germinated soon after flowering and die-back. Four successive seedling cohorts were studied. Mortality rate was high during the first 4 months after seedling emergence but several fast-growing seedlings were able to become established successfully. At the end of the study, 10%-20% of the initial number of bamboo seedlings in each cohort survived. Seedling abundance of tree canopy species was similar in flowering and non-flowering sites. C. ramosissima was able to re-colonize and perpetuate in sites it previously occupied. The coexistence of flowering and non-flowering culms at different spatio-temporal scales and clonal growth by rhizomes, together with the successful bamboo seedlings establishment, enhanced bamboo persistence in gaps and disturbed sites. Flowering and death of C. ramosissima did not facilitate seedling growth of canopy tree species.

Short and Long-Term Soil Moisture Effects of Liana Removal in a Seasonally Moist Tropical Forest

PubMed Central

Reid, Joseph Pignatello; Schnitzer, Stefan A.; Powers, Jennifer S.

2015-01-01

Lianas (woody vines) are particularly abundant in tropical forests, and their abundance is increasing in the neotropics. Lianas can compete intensely with trees for above- and belowground resources, including water. As tropical forests experience longer and more intense dry seasons, competition for water is likely to intensify. However, we lack an understanding of how liana abundance affects soil moisture and hence competition with trees for water in tropical forests. To address this critical knowledge gap, we conducted a large-scale liana removal experiment in a seasonal tropical moist forest in central Panama. We monitored shallow and deep soil moisture over the course of three years to assess the effects of lianas in eight 0.64 ha removal plots and eight control plots. Liana removal caused short-term effects in surface soils. Surface soils (10 cm depth) in removal plots dried more slowly during dry periods and accumulated water more slowly after rainfall events. These effects disappeared within four months of the removal treatment. In deeper soils (40 cm depth), liana removal resulted in a multi-year trend towards 5–25% higher soil moisture during the dry seasons with the largest significant effects occurring in the dry season of the third year following treatment. Liana removal did not affect surface soil temperature. Multiple and mutually occurring mechanisms may be responsible for the effects of liana removal on soil moisture, including competition with trees, and altered microclimate, and soil structure. These results indicate that lianas influence hydrologic processes, which may affect tree community dynamics and forest carbon cycling. PMID:26545205

Differences in ecosystem carbon distribution and nutrient cycling linked to forest tree species composition in a mid-successional boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melvin, April M.; Mack, Michelle C.; Johnstone, Jill F.; McGuire, A. David; Genet, Helene; Schuur, Edward A.G.

2015-01-01

In the boreal forest of Alaska, increased fire severity associated with climate change is expanding deciduous forest cover in areas previously dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana). Needle-leaf conifer and broad-leaf deciduous species are commonly associated with differences in tree growth, carbon (C) and nutrient cycling, and C accumulation in soils. Although this suggests that changes in tree species composition in Alaska could impact C and nutrient pools and fluxes, few studies have measured these linkages. We quantified C, nitrogen, phosphorus, and base cation pools and fluxes in three stands of black spruce and Alaska paper birch (Betula neoalaskana) that established following a single fire event in 1958. Paper birch consistently displayed characteristics of more rapid C and nutrient cycling, including greater aboveground net primary productivity, higher live foliage and litter nutrient concentrations, and larger ammonium and nitrate pools in the soil organic layer (SOL). Ecosystem C stocks (aboveground + SOL + 0–10 cm mineral soil) were similar for the two species; however, in black spruce, 78% of measured C was found in soil pools, primarily in the SOL, whereas aboveground biomass dominated ecosystem C pools in birch forest. Radiocarbon analysis indicated that approximately one-quarter of the black spruce SOL C accumulated prior to the 1958 fire, whereas no pre-fire C was observed in birch soils. Our findings suggest that tree species exert a strong influence over C and nutrient cycling in boreal forest and forest compositional shifts may have long-term implications for ecosystem C and nutrient dynamics.

Adaptive dynamics on an environmental gradient that changes over a geological time-scale.

PubMed

Fortelius, Mikael; Geritz, Stefan; Gyllenberg, Mats; Toivonen, Jaakko

2015-07-07

The standard adaptive dynamics framework assumes two timescales, i.e. fast population dynamics and slow evolutionary dynamics. We further assume a third timescale, which is even slower than the evolutionary timescale. We call this the geological timescale and we assume that slow climatic change occurs within this timescale. We study the evolution of our model population over this very slow geological timescale with bifurcation plots of the standard adaptive dynamics framework. The bifurcation parameter being varied describes the abiotic environment that changes over the geological timescale. We construct evolutionary trees over the geological timescale and observe both gradual phenotypic evolution and punctuated branching events. We concur with the established notion that branching of a monomorphic population on an environmental gradient only happens when the gradient is not too shallow and not too steep. However, we show that evolution within the habitat can produce polymorphic populations that inhabit steep gradients. What is necessary is that the environmental gradient at some point in time is such that the initial branching of the monomorphic population can occur. We also find that phenotypes adapted to environments in the middle of the existing environmental range are more likely to branch than phenotypes adapted to extreme environments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states.

PubMed

Staver, A Carla; Archibald, Sally; Levin, Simon

2011-05-01

Savannas are known as ecosystems with tree cover below climate-defined equilibrium values. However, a predictive framework for understanding constraints on tree cover is lacking. We present (a) a spatially extensive analysis of tree cover and fire distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, and (b) a model, based on empirical results, demonstrating that savanna and forest may be alternative stable states in parts of Africa, with implications for understanding savanna distributions. Tree cover does not increase continuously with rainfall, but rather is constrained to low (<50%, "savanna") or high tree cover (>75%, "forest"). Intermediate tree cover rarely occurs. Fire, which prevents trees from establishing, differentiates high and low tree cover, especially in areas with rainfall between 1000 mm and 2000 mm. Fire is less important at low rainfall (<1000 mm), where rainfall limits tree cover, and at high rainfall (>2000 mm), where fire is rare. This pattern suggests that complex interactions between climate and disturbance produce emergent alternative states in tree cover. The relationship between tree cover and fire was incorporated into a dynamic model including grass, savanna tree saplings, and savanna trees. Only recruitment from sapling to adult tree varied depending on the amount of grass in the system. Based on our empirical analysis and previous work, fires spread only at tree cover of 40% or less, producing a sigmoidal fire probability distribution as a function of grass cover and therefore a sigmoidal sapling to tree recruitment function. This model demonstrates that, given relatively conservative and empirically supported assumptions about the establishment of trees in savannas, alternative stable states for the same set of environmental conditions (i.e., model parameters) are possible via a fire feedback mechanism. Integrating alternative stable state dynamics into models of biome distributions could improve our ability to predict changes in biome distributions and in carbon storage under climate and global change scenarios.

Runout distance and dynamic pressure of pyroclastic density currents: Evidence from 18 May 1980 blast surge of Mount St. Helens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, J. E.; Andrews, B. J.

2016-12-01

Pyroclastic density currents (flows and surges) are one of the most deadly hazards associated with volcanic eruptions. Understanding what controls how far such currents will travel, and how their dynamic pressure evolves, could help mitigate their hazards. The distance a ground hugging, pyroclastic density current travels is partly limited by when it reverses buoyancy and lifts off into the atmosphere. The 1980 blast surge of Mount St. Helens offers an example of a current seen to lift off. Before lofting, it had traveled up to 20 km and leveled more than 600 km3 of thick forest (the blowdown zone). The outer edge of the devastated area - where burned trees that were left standing (the singe zone) - is where the surge is thought to have lifted off. We recently examined deposits in the outer parts of the blowdown and in the singe zone at 32 sites. The important finding is that the laterally moving surge travelled into the singe zone, and hence the change in tree damage does not mark the run out distance of the ground hugging surge. Eyewitness accounts and impacts on trees and vehicles reveal that the surge consisted of a fast, dilute "overcurrent" and a slower "undercurrent", where most of the mass (and heat) was retained. Reasonable estimates for flow density and velocity show that dynamic pressure of the surge (i.e., its ability to topple trees) peaked near the base of the overcurrent. We propose that when the overcurrent began to lift off, the height of peak dynamic pressure rose above the trees and stopped toppling them. The slower undercurrent continued forward, burning trees but it lacked the dynamic pressure needed to topple them. Grain-size variations argue that it slowed from 30 m/s when it entered the singe zone to 3 m/s at the far end. Buoyancy reversal and liftoff are thus not preserved in the deposits where the surge lofted upwards.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarrack, A.G.

The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses tomore » calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).« less

Graphical fault tree analysis for fatal falls in the construction industry.

PubMed

Chi, Chia-Fen; Lin, Syuan-Zih; Dewi, Ratna Sari

2014-11-01

The current study applied a fault tree analysis to represent the causal relationships among events and causes that contributed to fatal falls in the construction industry. Four hundred and eleven work-related fatalities in the Taiwanese construction industry were analyzed in terms of age, gender, experience, falling site, falling height, company size, and the causes for each fatality. Given that most fatal accidents involve multiple events, the current study coded up to a maximum of three causes for each fall fatality. After the Boolean algebra and minimal cut set analyses, accident causes associated with each falling site can be presented as a fault tree to provide an overview of the basic causes, which could trigger fall fatalities in the construction industry. Graphical icons were designed for each falling site along with the associated accident causes to illustrate the fault tree in a graphical manner. A graphical fault tree can improve inter-disciplinary discussion of risk management and the communication of accident causation to first line supervisors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling tree crown dynamics with 3D partial differential equations.

PubMed

Beyer, Robert; Letort, Véronique; Cournède, Paul-Henry

2014-01-01

We characterize a tree's spatial foliage distribution by the local leaf area density. Considering this spatially continuous variable allows to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the tree crown by means of 3D partial differential equations. These offer a framework to rigorously take locally and adaptively acting effects into account, notably the growth toward light. Biomass production through photosynthesis and the allocation to foliage and wood are readily included in this model framework. The system of equations stands out due to its inherent dynamic property of self-organization and spontaneous adaptation, generating complex behavior from even only a few parameters. The density-based approach yields spatially structured tree crowns without relying on detailed geometry. We present the methodological fundamentals of such a modeling approach and discuss further prospects and applications.

Dynamics of a pinyon-juniper stand in northern Arizona: a half-century history

Treesearch

Peter F. Ffolliott; Gerald J. Gottfried

2002-01-01

This paper adds to the limited knowledge of stand dynamics in pinyon-juniper woodlands by reporting on the changes in species composition, numbers of trees, arrangements of trees, and total height and volume in a stand from late 1938 to early 1991. This information should be helpful in managing pinyon-juniper woodlands to sustain their productivity and maintain their...

Effects of climate change and shifts in forest composition on forest net primary production

Treesearch

Jyh-Min Chiang; Louts [Louis] R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim J. Brown

2008-01-01

Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly influenced by climate. However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (...

An overview of the fire and fuels extension to the forest vegetation simulator

Treesearch

Sarah J. Beukema; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Werner A. Kurz; Nicholas L. Crookston

2000-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) has been developed to assess the risk, behavior, and impact of fire in forest ecosystems. This extension to the widely-used stand-dynamics model FVS simulates the dynamics of snags and surface fuels as they are affected by stand management (of trees or fuels), live tree growth and mortality,...

Using inventory data to determine the impact of drought on tree mortality

Treesearch

Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Charles H. Perry

2012-01-01

Drought has been the subject of numerous recent studies that hint at an acceleration of tree mortality due to climate change. In particular, a recent global survey of tree mortality events implicates drought as the cause of quaking aspen mortality in Minnesota, USA in 2007. In this study, data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the USDA Forest Service...

Correlation Between the System Capabilities Analytic Process (SCAP) and the Missions and Means Framework (MMF)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-01

specifics of the correlation will be explored followed by discussion of new paradigms— the ordered event list (OEL) and the decision tree — that result from...4.2.1  Brief Overview of the Decision Tree Paradigm ................................................15  4.2.2  OEL Explained...6  Figure 3. A depiction of a notional fault/activation tree . ................................................................7

Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 14 conifers in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Model evaluation, development, and thresholds

Treesearch

Lindsay M. Grayson; Robert A. Progar; Sharon M. Hood

2017-01-01

Fire is a driving force in the North American landscape and predicting post-fire tree mortality is vital to land management. Post-fire tree mortality can have substantial economic and social impacts, and natural resource managers need reliable predictive methods to anticipate potential mortality following fire events. Current fire mortality models are limited to a few...

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite assessment of increasing tree cover 1982-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X. P.; Hansen, M.

2017-12-01

The Earth's vegetation has undergone dramatic changes as we enter the Anthropocene. Recent studies have quantified global forest cover dynamics and resulting biogeochemical and biophysical impacts to the climate for the post-2000 time period. However, long-term gradual changes in undisturbed forests are less well quantified. We mapped annual tree cover using satellite data and quantified tree cover change during 1982-2016. The dataset was produced by combining optical observations from multiple satellite sensors, including the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus and various very high spatial resolution sensors. Contrary to current understanding of forest area change, global tree cover increased by 7%. The overall net gain in tree cover is a result of net loss in the tropics overweighed by net gain in the subtropical, temperate and boreal zones. All mountain systems, regardless of climate domain, experienced increases in tree cover. Regional patterns of tree cover gain including eastern United States, eastern Europe and southern China, indicate profound influences of socioeconomic, political or land management changes in shaping long-term environmental change. Results provide the first comprehensive record of global tree cover dynamics over the past four decades and may be used to reduce uncertainties in the quantification of the global carbon cycle.

Multi-decadal carbon and water relations of African tropical humid forests: a tree-ring stable isotope analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufkens, Koen; Helle, Gerd; Beeckman, Hans; de Haulleville, Thales; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Boeckx, Pascal

2013-04-01

Little is known about the temporal dynamics of the carbon sequestering capacity and dynamics of African tropical humid forest ecosystems in response to various environmental drivers. This lack of knowledge is mainly due to the absence of ecosystem scale flux measurements of gas exchange. However, tree growth often displays itself as alternating pattern of visible rings due to the seasonally varying growth speed of the vascular cambium. Consequently, analysis of tree growth through tree-ring analysis provides us with insights into past responses of the carbon sequestering capacity of key species to abrupt ecosystem disturbances and, while slower, a changing climate. Not only does the width and density of growth rings reflect annual growth but their isotopic composition of 13C/12C and 18O/16O isotopes also reveal the environmental conditions in which the trees were growing. In particular, stable isotope ratios in tree-rings of carbon are influenced by fractionation through carboxylation during photosynthesis and changes in leaf stomatal conductance. Similarly, fractionation of oxygen isotopes of soil water occurs at the leaf level through evapo-transipiration. As a consequence, 18O/16O (δ18O) values in wood cores will reflect both the signal of the source water as well as that of for example summer humidity. Therefore, both C and O stable isotopes might not only be valuable as proxy data for past climatic conditions but they also serve as an important tool in understanding carbon and water relations within a tropical forest ecosystems. To this end we correlate long term climate records (1961 - present) with tree ring measurement of incremental growth and high resolution analysis of tree-core stable isotope composition(δ13C , δ18O) at a tropical humid forests in the DR Congo. The Yangambi Man And Biosphere (MAB) reserve is located in the north-eastern part of DR Congo, with a distinct tropical rainforest climate. In addition to the tree-core data records and extensive meteorological records collected at both sites, observations on green leaf phenology of key species will provide us with additional information on potential carbon sequestration dynamics. Because, phenology is a first order control on plant productivity. In this unique study, using detailed tree-ring analyses together with auxiliary data, we explore the temporal dynamics of carbon and water relations and the influence on carbon sequestration of key tree species in African tropical humid forests.

Calculating Higher-Order Moments of Phylogenetic Stochastic Mapping Summaries in Linear Time.

PubMed

Dhar, Amrit; Minin, Vladimir N

2017-05-01

Stochastic mapping is a simulation-based method for probabilistically mapping substitution histories onto phylogenies according to continuous-time Markov models of evolution. This technique can be used to infer properties of the evolutionary process on the phylogeny and, unlike parsimony-based mapping, conditions on the observed data to randomly draw substitution mappings that do not necessarily require the minimum number of events on a tree. Most stochastic mapping applications simulate substitution mappings only to estimate the mean and/or variance of two commonly used mapping summaries: the number of particular types of substitutions (labeled substitution counts) and the time spent in a particular group of states (labeled dwelling times) on the tree. Fast, simulation-free algorithms for calculating the mean of stochastic mapping summaries exist. Importantly, these algorithms scale linearly in the number of tips/leaves of the phylogenetic tree. However, to our knowledge, no such algorithm exists for calculating higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries. We present one such simulation-free dynamic programming algorithm that calculates prior and posterior mapping variances and scales linearly in the number of phylogeny tips. Our procedure suggests a general framework that can be used to efficiently compute higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries without simulations. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithm by extending previously developed statistical tests for rate variation across sites and for detecting evolutionarily conserved regions in genomic sequences.

Snag characteristics and dynamics following natural and artificially induced mortality in a managed loblolly pine forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zarnoch, Stanley J.; Vukovich, Mark A.; Kilgo, John C.

A 14-year study of snag characteristics was established in 41- to 44-year old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) stands in southeastern USA. During the initial 5.5 years, no stand manipulation or unusually high-mortality events occurred. Afterwards, three treatments were applied consisting of trees thinned and removed, trees felled and not removed, and artificial creation of snags produced by girdling and herbicide injection. The thinned treatments were designed to maintain the same live canopy density as the snag-created treatment, disregarding snags that remained standing.We monitored snag height, diameter, density, volume, and bark percentage; the number of cavities was monitored in naturalmore » snags only. During the first 5.5 years, recruitment and loss rates were stable, resulting in a stable snag population. Large snags (≥25 cm diameter) were common, but subcanopy small snags (10 to <25 cm diameter) dominated numerically. Large natural snags survived (90% quantile) significantly longer (6.0–9.4 years) than smaller snags (4.4–6.9 years). Large artificial snags persisted the longest (11.8 years). Cavities in natural snags developed within 3 years following tree death. The mean number of cavities per snag was five times greater in large versus small snags and large snags were more likely to have multiple cavities, emphasizing the importance of mature pine stands for cavity-dependent wildlife species.« less

Calculating Higher-Order Moments of Phylogenetic Stochastic Mapping Summaries in Linear Time

PubMed Central

Dhar, Amrit

2017-01-01

Abstract Stochastic mapping is a simulation-based method for probabilistically mapping substitution histories onto phylogenies according to continuous-time Markov models of evolution. This technique can be used to infer properties of the evolutionary process on the phylogeny and, unlike parsimony-based mapping, conditions on the observed data to randomly draw substitution mappings that do not necessarily require the minimum number of events on a tree. Most stochastic mapping applications simulate substitution mappings only to estimate the mean and/or variance of two commonly used mapping summaries: the number of particular types of substitutions (labeled substitution counts) and the time spent in a particular group of states (labeled dwelling times) on the tree. Fast, simulation-free algorithms for calculating the mean of stochastic mapping summaries exist. Importantly, these algorithms scale linearly in the number of tips/leaves of the phylogenetic tree. However, to our knowledge, no such algorithm exists for calculating higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries. We present one such simulation-free dynamic programming algorithm that calculates prior and posterior mapping variances and scales linearly in the number of phylogeny tips. Our procedure suggests a general framework that can be used to efficiently compute higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries without simulations. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithm by extending previously developed statistical tests for rate variation across sites and for detecting evolutionarily conserved regions in genomic sequences. PMID:28177780

Impact of Climate Variability on Forest Dynamics in Eastern Amazon: the Role of Large-Scale Droughts, Local Droughts, and Other Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, M.; Hayek, M.; Alves, L. F.; Bonal, D.; Camargo, P. B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Fitzjarrald, D. R.; Knox, R. G.; Saleska, S. R.; da Silva, R.; Stark, S.; Tapajos, R.; Wiedemann, K. T.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Wofsy, S. C.

2012-12-01

Droughts in the Amazon - especially in the southern and eastern regions - are likely to become more frequent and severe with climate change, potentially resulting in significant losses of biomass. Therefore, understanding the ecosystem response to past events, such as the major Amazonian drought of 2005, is fundamental to forecast the ecosystem resilience to extreme droughts in case they become more frequent. In this study we evaluate whether and how large-scale droughts affected the forest dynamics both in terms of productivity and in mortality, and what is the relative contribution of other factors, such as windthrow and smaller local droughts, to explain the observed dynamics. We focus on two sites in Eastern Amazon: Tapajos National Forest near Santarem, Brazil (S67), and Guyaflux tower at Paracou Field Station in French Guiana (GYF). We analyzed site-level observations from eddy flux towers, biometric measurements, and simulated the environment with the Ecosystem Demography Model, version 2 (ED2). This model has the advantage to represent the forest structure in size and functional type, and also biophysical processes within and above canopy, making comparisons with observations more direct. Preliminary results indicate that while the large-scale 2005 drought influenced productivity at both sites, local droughts and windthrow had also a significant contribution to the variation in productivity and mortality rates. Mortality in S67 increased significantly between 2005 and 2007, and was slightly higher in GYF between 2006 and 2008. In both cases, however, higher incidence of uprooted and broken trees suggests a significant contribution from windthrow to mortality. In S67, preliminary simulations using ED2 indicate that water stress reduced productivity during a local but severe drought at the end of 2006, followed by an increase in mortality particularly among trees with diameter at breast height less than 35 cm and early successional trees. In GYF, both ED2 and observations show decline in productivity late in the 2008 dry season, which was longer and drier than average, although the impact on mortality was negligible.

CUTSETS - MINIMAL CUT SET CALCULATION FOR DIGRAPH AND FAULT TREE RELIABILITY MODELS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, D. L.

1994-01-01

Fault tree and digraph models are frequently used for system failure analysis. Both type of models represent a failure space view of the system using AND and OR nodes in a directed graph structure. Fault trees must have a tree structure and do not allow cycles or loops in the graph. Digraphs allow any pattern of interconnection between loops in the graphs. A common operation performed on digraph and fault tree models is the calculation of minimal cut sets. A cut set is a set of basic failures that could cause a given target failure event to occur. A minimal cut set for a target event node in a fault tree or digraph is any cut set for the node with the property that if any one of the failures in the set is removed, the occurrence of the other failures in the set will not cause the target failure event. CUTSETS will identify all the minimal cut sets for a given node. The CUTSETS package contains programs that solve for minimal cut sets of fault trees and digraphs using object-oriented programming techniques. These cut set codes can be used to solve graph models for reliability analysis and identify potential single point failures in a modeled system. The fault tree minimal cut set code reads in a fault tree model input file with each node listed in a text format. In the input file the user specifies a top node of the fault tree and a maximum cut set size to be calculated. CUTSETS will find minimal sets of basic events which would cause the failure at the output of a given fault tree gate. The program can find all the minimal cut sets of a node, or minimal cut sets up to a specified size. The algorithm performs a recursive top down parse of the fault tree, starting at the specified top node, and combines the cut sets of each child node into sets of basic event failures that would cause the failure event at the output of that gate. Minimal cut set solutions can be found for all nodes in the fault tree or just for the top node. The digraph cut set code uses the same techniques as the fault tree cut set code, except it includes all upstream digraph nodes in the cut sets for a given node and checks for cycles in the digraph during the solution process. CUTSETS solves for specified nodes and will not automatically solve for all upstream digraph nodes. The cut sets will be output as a text file. CUTSETS includes a utility program that will convert the popular COD format digraph model description files into text input files suitable for use with the CUTSETS programs. FEAT (MSC-21873) and FIRM (MSC-21860) available from COSMIC are examples of programs that produce COD format digraph model description files that may be converted for use with the CUTSETS programs. CUTSETS is written in C-language to be machine independent. It has been successfully implemented on a Sun running SunOS, a DECstation running ULTRIX, a Macintosh running System 7, and a DEC VAX running VMS. The RAM requirement varies with the size of the models. CUTSETS is available in UNIX tar format on a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge (standard distribution) or on a 3.5 inch diskette. It is also available on a 3.5 inch Macintosh format diskette or on a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in DEC VAX FILES-11 format. Sample input and sample output are provided on the distribution medium. An electronic copy of the documentation in Macintosh Microsoft Word format is included on the distribution medium. Sun and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. DEC, DeCstation, ULTRIX, VAX, and VMS are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. Macintosh is a registered trademark of Apple Computer, Inc.

Review: Evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis.

PubMed

Isoda, N; Kadohira, M; Sekiguchi, S; Schuppers, M; Stärk, K D C

2015-06-01

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes huge economic losses and animal welfare problems. Although much can be learnt from past FMD outbreaks, several countries are not satisfied with their degree of contingency planning and aiming at more assurance that their control measures will be effective. The purpose of the present article was to develop a generic fault tree framework for the control of an FMD outbreak as a basis for systematic improvement and refinement of control activities and general preparedness. Fault trees are typically used in engineering to document pathways that can lead to an undesired event, that is, ineffective FMD control. The fault tree method allows risk managers to identify immature parts of the control system and to analyse the events or steps that will most probably delay rapid and effective disease control during a real outbreak. The present developed fault tree is generic and can be tailored to fit the specific needs of countries. For instance, the specific fault tree for the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK was refined based on control weaknesses discussed in peer-reviewed articles. Furthermore, the specific fault tree based on the 2001 outbreak was applied to the subsequent FMD outbreak in 2007 to assess the refinement of control measures following the earlier, major outbreak. The FMD fault tree can assist risk managers to develop more refined and adequate control activities against FMD outbreaks and to find optimum strategies for rapid control. Further application using the current tree will be one of the basic measures for FMD control worldwide. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Historical reconstruction of climatic and elevation preferences and the evolution of cloud forest-adapted tree ferns in Mesoamerica.

PubMed

Sosa, Victoria; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Gándara, Etelvina

2016-01-01

Cloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remained in situ or expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence. Here we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space) for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences. Bayesian trees retrieved Cyathea, Alsophyla, Gymnosphaera and Sphaeropteris in monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except for Gymnosphaera that was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from hypothesized ancestors for the most significant variables or elevation. For elevational shifts, we found repeated change from low to high elevations. Our data suggest that representatives of Cyatheaceae main lineages migrated from Australia to Mesoamerican cloud forests in different times and have persisted in these environmentally unstable areas but extant species diverged recentrly from their ancestors.

Historical reconstruction of climatic and elevation preferences and the evolution of cloud forest-adapted tree ferns in Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Cloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remained in situ or expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence. Methods Here we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space) for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences. Results Bayesian trees retrieved Cyathea, Alsophyla, Gymnosphaera and Sphaeropteris in monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except for Gymnosphaera that was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from hypothesized ancestors for the most significant variables or elevation. For elevational shifts, we found repeated change from low to high elevations. Conclusions Our data suggest that representatives of Cyatheaceae main lineages migrated from Australia to Mesoamerican cloud forests in different times and have persisted in these environmentally unstable areas but extant species diverged recentrly from their ancestors. PMID:27896030

Topography alters tree growth–climate relationships in a semi-arid forested catchment

DOE PAGES

Adams, Hallie R.; Barnard, Holly R.; Loomis, Alexander K.

2014-11-26

Topography and climate play an integral role in the spatial variability and annual dynamics of aboveground carbon sequestration. Despite knowledge of vegetation–climate–topography relationships on the landscape and hillslope scales, little is known about the influence of complex terrain coupled with hydrologic and topoclimatic variation on tree growth and physiology at the catchment scale. Climate change predictions for the semi-arid, western United States include increased temperatures, more frequent and extreme drought events, and decreases in snowpack, all of which put forests at risk of drought induced mortality and enhanced susceptibility to disturbance events. In this study, we determine how species-specific treemore » growth patterns and water use efficiency respond to interannual climate variability and how this response varies with topographic position. We found that Pinus contorta and Pinus ponderosa both show significant decreases in growth with water-limiting climate conditions, but complex terrain mediates this response by controlling moisture conditions in variable topoclimates. Foliar carbon isotope analyses show increased water use efficiency during drought for Pinus contorta, but indicate no significant difference in water use efficiency of Pinus ponderosa between a drought year and a non-drought year. The responses of the two pine species to climate indicate that semi-arid forests are especially susceptible to changes and risks posed by climate change and that topographic variability will likely play a significant role in determining the future vegetation patterns of semi-arid systems.« less

Tree value system: description and assumptions.

Treesearch

D.G. Briggs

1989-01-01

TREEVAL is a microcomputer model that calculates tree or stand values and volumes based on product prices, manufacturing costs, and predicted product recovery. It was designed as an aid in evaluating management regimes. TREEVAL calculates values in either of two ways, one based on optimized tree bucking using dynamic programming and one simulating the results of user-...

Introduction to forest growth and yield

Treesearch

John W., Jr. Moser

1989-01-01

Forests are dynamic communities that are constantly changing. To the casual observer, only the most obvious change, such as the death of a tree, may be discernible. However, other changes are continually occurring. Trees grow in both height and diameter. This is termed survivor growth. Ingrowth occurs when a tree's diameter grows larger than an arbitrarily...

Seasonal dynamics and age of stemwood nonstructural carbohydrates in temperate forest trees

Treesearch

Andrew D. Richardson; Mariah S. Carbone; Trevor F. Keenan; Claudia I. Czimczik; David Y. Hollinger; Paula Murakami; Paul G. Schaberg; Xiaomei Xu

2013-01-01

Nonstructural carbohydrate reserves support tree metabolism and growth when current photosynthates are insufficient, offering resilience in times of stress. We monitored stemwood nonstructural carbohydrate (starch and sugars) concentrations of the dominant tree species at three sites in the northeastern United States. We estimated the mean age of the starch and sugars...

Tree Hydraulics: How Sap Rises

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denny, Mark

2012-01-01

Trees transport water from roots to crown--a height that can exceed 100 m. The physics of tree hydraulics can be conveyed with simple fluid dynamics based upon the Hagen-Poiseuille equation and Murray's law. Here the conduit structure is modelled as conical pipes and as branching pipes. The force required to lift sap is generated mostly by…

INDDGO: Integrated Network Decomposition & Dynamic programming for Graph Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groer, Christopher S; Sullivan, Blair D; Weerapurage, Dinesh P

2012-10-01

It is well-known that dynamic programming algorithms can utilize tree decompositions to provide a way to solve some \\emph{NP}-hard problems on graphs where the complexity is polynomial in the number of nodes and edges in the graph, but exponential in the width of the underlying tree decomposition. However, there has been relatively little computational work done to determine the practical utility of such dynamic programming algorithms. We have developed software to construct tree decompositions using various heuristics and have created a fast, memory-efficient dynamic programming implementation for solving maximum weighted independent set. We describe our software and the algorithms wemore » have implemented, focusing on memory saving techniques for the dynamic programming. We compare the running time and memory usage of our implementation with other techniques for solving maximum weighted independent set, including a commercial integer programming solver and a semi-definite programming solver. Our results indicate that it is possible to solve some instances where the underlying decomposition has width much larger than suggested by the literature. For certain types of problems, our dynamic programming code runs several times faster than these other methods.« less

Sampling-based real-time motion planning under state uncertainty for autonomous micro-aerial vehicles in GPS-denied environments.

PubMed

Li, Dachuan; Li, Qing; Cheng, Nong; Song, Jingyan

2014-11-18

This paper presents a real-time motion planning approach for autonomous vehicles with complex dynamics and state uncertainty. The approach is motivated by the motion planning problem for autonomous vehicles navigating in GPS-denied dynamic environments, which involves non-linear and/or non-holonomic vehicle dynamics, incomplete state estimates, and constraints imposed by uncertain and cluttered environments. To address the above motion planning problem, we propose an extension of the closed-loop rapid belief trees, the closed-loop random belief trees (CL-RBT), which incorporates predictions of the position estimation uncertainty, using a factored form of the covariance provided by the Kalman filter-based estimator. The proposed motion planner operates by incrementally constructing a tree of dynamically feasible trajectories using the closed-loop prediction, while selecting candidate paths with low uncertainty using efficient covariance update and propagation. The algorithm can operate in real-time, continuously providing the controller with feasible paths for execution, enabling the vehicle to account for dynamic and uncertain environments. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can generate feasible trajectories that reduce the state estimation uncertainty, while handling complex vehicle dynamics and environment constraints.

Sampling-Based Real-Time Motion Planning under State Uncertainty for Autonomous Micro-Aerial Vehicles in GPS-Denied Environments

PubMed Central

Li, Dachuan; Li, Qing; Cheng, Nong; Song, Jingyan

2014-01-01

This paper presents a real-time motion planning approach for autonomous vehicles with complex dynamics and state uncertainty. The approach is motivated by the motion planning problem for autonomous vehicles navigating in GPS-denied dynamic environments, which involves non-linear and/or non-holonomic vehicle dynamics, incomplete state estimates, and constraints imposed by uncertain and cluttered environments. To address the above motion planning problem, we propose an extension of the closed-loop rapid belief trees, the closed-loop random belief trees (CL-RBT), which incorporates predictions of the position estimation uncertainty, using a factored form of the covariance provided by the Kalman filter-based estimator. The proposed motion planner operates by incrementally constructing a tree of dynamically feasible trajectories using the closed-loop prediction, while selecting candidate paths with low uncertainty using efficient covariance update and propagation. The algorithm can operate in real-time, continuously providing the controller with feasible paths for execution, enabling the vehicle to account for dynamic and uncertain environments. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can generate feasible trajectories that reduce the state estimation uncertainty, while handling complex vehicle dynamics and environment constraints. PMID:25412217

Mountain building triggered late cretaceous North American megaherbivore dinosaur radiation.

PubMed

Gates, Terry A; Prieto-Márquez, Albert; Zanno, Lindsay E

2012-01-01

Prior studies of Mesozoic biodiversity document a diversity peak for dinosaur species in the Campanian stage of the Late Cretaceous, yet have failed to provide explicit causal mechanisms. We provide evidence that a marked increase in North American dinosaur biodiversity can be attributed to dynamic orogenic episodes within the Western Interior Basin (WIB). Detailed fossil occurrences document an association between the shift from Sevier-style, latitudinally arrayed basins to smaller Laramide-style, longitudinally arrayed basins and a well substantiated decreased geographic range/increased taxonomic diversity of megaherbivorous dinosaur species. Dispersal-vicariance analysis demonstrates that the nearly identical biogeographic histories of the megaherbivorous dinosaur clades Ceratopsidae and Hadrosauridae are attributable to rapid diversification events within restricted basins and that isolation events are contemporaneous with known tectonic activity in the region. SymmeTREE analysis indicates that megaherbivorous dinosaur clades exhibited significant variation in diversification rates throughout the Late Cretaceous. Phylogenetic divergence estimates of fossil clades offer a new lower boundary on Laramide surficial deformation that precedes estimates based on sedimentological data alone.

Mountain Building Triggered Late Cretaceous North American Megaherbivore Dinosaur Radiation

PubMed Central

Gates, Terry A.; Prieto-Márquez, Albert; Zanno, Lindsay E.

2012-01-01

Prior studies of Mesozoic biodiversity document a diversity peak for dinosaur species in the Campanian stage of the Late Cretaceous, yet have failed to provide explicit causal mechanisms. We provide evidence that a marked increase in North American dinosaur biodiversity can be attributed to dynamic orogenic episodes within the Western Interior Basin (WIB). Detailed fossil occurrences document an association between the shift from Sevier-style, latitudinally arrayed basins to smaller Laramide-style, longitudinally arrayed basins and a well substantiated decreased geographic range/increased taxonomic diversity of megaherbivorous dinosaur species. Dispersal-vicariance analysis demonstrates that the nearly identical biogeographic histories of the megaherbivorous dinosaur clades Ceratopsidae and Hadrosauridae are attributable to rapid diversification events within restricted basins and that isolation events are contemporaneous with known tectonic activity in the region. SymmeTREE analysis indicates that megaherbivorous dinosaur clades exhibited significant variation in diversification rates throughout the Late Cretaceous. Phylogenetic divergence estimates of fossil clades offer a new lower boundary on Laramide surficial deformation that precedes estimates based on sedimentological data alone. PMID:22876302

A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

PubMed

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

2017-09-01

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Probability of a Gene Tree Topology within a Phylogenetic Network with Applications to Hybridization Detection

PubMed Central

Yu, Yun; Degnan, James H.; Nakhleh, Luay

2012-01-01

Gene tree topologies have proven a powerful data source for various tasks, including species tree inference and species delimitation. Consequently, methods for computing probabilities of gene trees within species trees have been developed and widely used in probabilistic inference frameworks. All these methods assume an underlying multispecies coalescent model. However, when reticulate evolutionary events such as hybridization occur, these methods are inadequate, as they do not account for such events. Methods that account for both hybridization and deep coalescence in computing the probability of a gene tree topology currently exist for very limited cases. However, no such methods exist for general cases, owing primarily to the fact that it is currently unknown how to compute the probability of a gene tree topology within the branches of a phylogenetic network. Here we present a novel method for computing the probability of gene tree topologies on phylogenetic networks and demonstrate its application to the inference of hybridization in the presence of incomplete lineage sorting. We reanalyze a Saccharomyces species data set for which multiple analyses had converged on a species tree candidate. Using our method, though, we show that an evolutionary hypothesis involving hybridization in this group has better support than one of strict divergence. A similar reanalysis on a group of three Drosophila species shows that the data is consistent with hybridization. Further, using extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the power of gene tree topologies at obtaining accurate estimates of branch lengths and hybridization probabilities of a given phylogenetic network. Finally, we discuss identifiability issues with detecting hybridization, particularly in cases that involve extinction or incomplete sampling of taxa. PMID:22536161

Intra-seasonal dynamics in metabolic processes of 13C/12C and 18O/16O in components of Scots pine twigs from southern Siberia interpreted with a conceptual framework based on the Carbon Metabolism Oscillatory Model.

PubMed

Voronin, Victor; Ivlev, Alexander A; Oskolkov, Vladimir; Boettger, Tatjana

2012-05-30

Carbon isotope data from conifer trees play an important role in research on the boreal forest carbon reservoir in the global carbon cycle. Carbon isotopes are routinely used to study interactions between the environment and tree growth. Moreover, carbon isotopes became an essential tool for the evaluation of carbon assimilation and transport from needles into reserve pools, as well as the allocation of stored assimilates within a tree. The successful application and interpretation of carbon isotopes rely on the coherence of isotopic fractionation modeling. This study employs a new Carbon Metabolism Oscillatory Model (CMOM) to interpret the experimental data sets on metabolic seasonal dynamics of 13C/12 C and 18O/16O ratios measured in twig components of Scots pine growing in southern Siberia (Russia). The dynamics of carbon isotopic variables were studied in components of Pinus sylvestris L. in light and in dark chambers during the vegetation period from 14 June to 28 July 2006. At the beginning of this period water-soluble organic matter, mostly labile sugars (including sucrose as the main component) and newly formed bulk needle material, displayed relatively "light" δ13C values (depletion in 13 C). Then, 13 C content increased again with noticeable "depletion" events in the middle of the growth period. A gradual 13 C accumulation took place in the second half of the vegetation period. Similar effects were observed both in the light and in the dark with some temporal shifts. Environmental factors did not influence the δ13C values. A gradual 12C-depletion effect was noticed in needles of the previous year. The δ13C values of sucrose and proteins from needle biomass altered independently from each other in the light chamber. A distinct negative correlation between δ13C and δ18O values was revealed for all studied variables. The abrupt 13C depletion recorded by all tested trees for the period from June to July provides clear evidence of the transition from the dominant role of reserve carbohydrate pool (RCP) during the first half of the growth season to the preferable current year carbohydrate pool (CCP) consumption by new needles during its second half. The investigation of the isotopic signatures of Pinus sylvestris L. emphasizes the pivotal role of the intra-seasonal dynamics in carbon metabolism through the transport of assimilates from autotrophic (needles) to heterotrophic (twigs) organs of the studied trees. This provides an explanation for changes of carbon isotopic values observed within the growth season. The CMOM-based results support the hypothesis of the integration of three carbohydrate pools by photosynthesizing cells. The fluctuations of the carbon isotope ratios in different carbohydrate pools underlie various physiological processes in the tree metabolism. The possible mechanisms and pathways of formation of these carbohydrate pools are further discussed. Hence, CMOM provides a reasonable explanation for the absence of the impact of environmental conditions on the needle isotopic variables, the 12C-depletion effects and the use of RCP in needles. The model explains the negative connections between δ13C and δ18O values in all studied variables.

Intra-seasonal dynamics in metabolic processes of 13C/12C and 18O/16O in components of Scots pine twigs from southern Siberia interpreted with a conceptual framework based on the Carbon Metabolism Oscillatory Model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Carbon isotope data from conifer trees play an important role in research on the boreal forest carbon reservoir in the global carbon cycle. Carbon isotopes are routinely used to study interactions between the environment and tree growth. Moreover, carbon isotopes became an essential tool for the evaluation of carbon assimilation and transport from needles into reserve pools, as well as the allocation of stored assimilates within a tree. The successful application and interpretation of carbon isotopes rely on the coherence of isotopic fractionation modeling. This study employs a new Carbon Metabolism Oscillatory Model (CMOM) to interpret the experimental data sets on metabolic seasonal dynamics of 13C/12 C and 18O/16O ratios measured in twig components of Scots pine growing in southern Siberia (Russia). Results The dynamics of carbon isotopic variables were studied in components of Pinus sylvestris L. in light and in dark chambers during the vegetation period from 14 June to 28 July 2006. At the beginning of this period water-soluble organic matter, mostly labile sugars (including sucrose as the main component) and newly formed bulk needle material, displayed relatively “light” δ13C values (depletion in 13 C). Then, 13 C content increased again with noticeable “depletion” events in the middle of the growth period. A gradual 13 C accumulation took place in the second half of the vegetation period. Similar effects were observed both in the light and in the dark with some temporal shifts. Environmental factors did not influence the δ13C values. A gradual 12C-depletion effect was noticed in needles of the previous year. The δ13C values of sucrose and proteins from needle biomass altered independently from each other in the light chamber. A distinct negative correlation between δ13C and δ18O values was revealed for all studied variables. Conclusions The abrupt 13C depletion recorded by all tested trees for the period from June to July provides clear evidence of the transition from the dominant role of reserve carbohydrate pool (RCP) during the first half of the growth season to the preferable current year carbohydrate pool (CCP) consumption by new needles during its second half. The investigation of the isotopic signatures of Pinus sylvestris L. emphasizes the pivotal role of the intra-seasonal dynamics in carbon metabolism through the transport of assimilates from autotrophic (needles) to heterotrophic (twigs) organs of the studied trees. This provides an explanation for changes of carbon isotopic values observed within the growth season. The CMOM-based results support the hypothesis of the integration of three carbohydrate pools by photosynthesizing cells. The fluctuations of the carbon isotope ratios in different carbohydrate pools underlie various physiological processes in the tree metabolism. The possible mechanisms and pathways of formation of these carbohydrate pools are further discussed. Hence, CMOM provides a reasonable explanation for the absence of the impact of environmental conditions on the needle isotopic variables, the 12C-depletion effects and the use of RCP in needles. The model explains the negative connections between δ13C and δ18O values in all studied variables. PMID:22646756

Introduction to the special issue: Tree invasions: towards a better understanding of their complex evolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Hirsch, Heidi; Richardson, David M; Le Roux, Johannes J

2017-05-01

Many invasive plants show evidence of trait-based evolutionary change, but these remain largely unexplored for invasive trees. The increasing number of invasive trees and their tremendous impacts worldwide, however, illustrates the urgent need to bridge this knowledge gap to apply efficient management. Consequently, an interdisciplinary workshop, held in 2015 at Stellenbosch University in Stellenbosch, South Africa, brought together international researchers to discuss our understanding of evolutionary dynamics in invasive trees. The main outcome of this workshop is this Special Issue of AoB PLANTS . The collection of papers in this issue has helped to identify and assess the evolutionary mechanisms that are likely to influence tree invasions. It also facilitated expansion of the unified framework for biological invasions to incorporate key evolutionary processes. The papers cover a wide range of evolutionary mechanisms in tree genomes (adaptation), epigenomes (phenotypic plasticity) and their second genomes (mutualists), and show how such mechanisms can impact tree invasion processes and management. The special issue provides a comprehensive overview of the factors that promote and mitigate the invasive success of tree species in many parts of the world. It also shows that incorporating evolutionary concepts is crucial for understanding the complex drivers of tree invasions and has much potential to improve management. The contributions of the special issue also highlight many priorities for further work in the face of ever-increasing tree invasions; the complexity of this research needs calls for expanded interdisciplinary research collaborations.

Phenology of Pacific Northwest tree species

Treesearch

Connie Harrington; Kevin Ford; Brad St. Clair

2016-01-01

Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events. For foresters, the most commonly observed phenological events are budburst, flowering, and leaf fall, but other harder to observe events, such as diameter-growth initiation, are also important. Most events that occur in the spring are influenced by past exposure to cool (chilling) temperatures and...

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

PubMed

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overland flow connectivity in olive orchard plots with cover crops and conventional tillage, and under different rainfall scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Vicente, Manuel; García-Ruiz, Roberto; Guzmán, Gema; Vicente-Vicente, José Luis; Gómez, José Alfonso

2016-04-01

The study of overland flow connectivity (QC) allows understanding the redistribution dynamics of runoff and soil components as an emergent property of the spatio-temporal interactions of hydrological and geomorphic processes. However, very few studies have dealt with runoff connectivity in olive orchards. In this study we simulated QC in four olive orchard plots, located on the Santa Marta farm (37° 20' 33.6" N, 6° 13' 44" W), in Seville province (Andalusia) in SW Spain. The olive plantation was established in 1985 with trees planted at 8 m x 6 m. Each bounded plot is 8 m wide (between 2 tree lines) and 60 m long (total area of 480 m2), laid out with the longest dimension parallel to the maximum slope and to the tree lines. The slope is uniform, with an average steepness of 11%. Two plots (P2 and P4) were devoted to conventional tillage (CT) consisting of regular chisel plow passes depending on weed growth. Another set of two plots had two types of cover crops (CC) in the inter tree rows (the area outside the vertical olive canopy projection): uniform CC of Lolium multiflorum (P3) and a mixture of L. rigidum and L. multiflorum together with other species (P5). The tree rows were treated with herbicide to keep bare soil. We selected the Index of runoff and sediment Connectivity (IC) of Borselli et al. (2008) to simulate three rainfall scenarios: i) low rainfall intensity (Sc-LowInt) and using the MD flow accumulation algorithm; ii) moderate rainfall intensity (Sc-ModInt) and using MD8; and iii) high rainfall intensity (Sc-HighInt) and using D8. After analysing the values of rainfall intensity during two hydrological years (Oct'09-Sep'10 and Oct'10-Sep'11) we associated the three scenarios with the followings months: Sc-LowInt during the period Jan-Mar, that summarizes 42% of all annual rainfall events; Sc-ModInt during Oct-Nov and Apr-May (32% of all events); and Sc-HighInt during the period Jun-Sep and in December (26% of all events). Instead of using the C-RUSLE factor as it is indicated in the original version of the IC model, we chosen the product between the C (cover-management) and P (support-practices) factors. Previous studies in olive orchards (Gómez et al., 2003) demonstrated that this product is advisable in soil erosion studies. We distinguished four areas within the plots: inter-row-CC, inter-row-CT, olive trees and bare soil under the tree line. Values of the C-RUSLE factor were obtained from previous studies (e.g. Moreira-Madueño, 1991 in Andalusia; Panagos et al., 2015 in Europe). The minimum, mean and maximum values of connectivity in the two plots with CC were lower (-8% on average) than the corresponding values in the two plots under CT. This trend remained by using any of the three algorithms. CC efficiently reduced overland flow connectivity. Areas with low connectivity (deposition-prone areas) appeared more frequently in inter-row-CC in comparison with CT. The assessment of the C-RUSLE factor for each month according to the phenology of the CC and the sowing practices will be explored in further research.

Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

2010-12-01

The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

2017-12-01

Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

To live or to die? Evidence of variable drivers of wood d13C reveal different responses to disturbance in co-occurring oaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, A. S.; Stephen, F. M.; Billings, S. A.

2011-12-01

A major oak decline event in recent decades in Northwest Arkansas permits insight into disturbance impacts on forests, which is important for understanding global carbon, nutrient and climate cycles given projections of increasing disturbance event frequency in the future. The decline event, associated with an increase in population of a native, wood-boring insect, followed a cycle of droughts and resulted in a mosaic of apparently healthy red oaks (Quercus rubra) neighboring severely declining trees of the same species. Tree-ring evidence suggests decreased growth rates following increases in the insect's population decades prior to visible external decline symptoms (i.e. decreased crown coverage, mortality), but only in trees destined to die during the insect outbreak. Reasons why some trees experienced mortality and some remained healthy are unclear. Through analysis of stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) in wood and leaf δ13C and nitrogen among co-occurring trees, we can infer differential responses of red oaks to disturbance and associated resilience to mortality. Tree-ring a-cellulose δ13C varied from -27.3to -23.0%, and δ18O values varied from 27.5 to 31.8%. Neither δ13C nor δ18O exhibited signficant differences between healthy and declining trees. However, declining trees exhibited a significant, positive relationship between δ13C and δ18O (p <0.05, r2=0.15) prior to peak insect infestation. In contrast, apparently healthy individuals did not exhibit a significant relationship between these parameters, but exhibited significant, positive relationships between current year leaf δ13C and nitrogen content (p<0.05, r2=0.77). These results suggest that healthy and declining trees had different strategies for coping with insect infestation. Correlation between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O in dying trees suggests that trees destined to die during the infestation regulated their δ13C values primarily via stomatal conductance, a mechanism that influences both δ13C and δ18O. In contrast, δ13C values in apparently healthy trees did not vary with δ18O, indicating that stomatal conductance was not an important regulator of δ13C. The linkage between δ13C and nitrogen availability in these trees suggests that carbon sink strength, typically associated with plant nutrient status, may have played a more important role than carbon source strength (i.e. stomatal conductance) in governing tree-ring δ13C. These results suggest that 1) responses to disturbance of co-occurring trees of the same species can diverge in ways discernable decades later via stable isotopic analysis, and 2) the primary driver of wood δ13C values, whether carbon source (stomatal conductance) or sink (fixation capacity) strength, is linked to its fate.

Unified framework for triaxial accelerometer-based fall event detection and classification using cumulants and hierarchical decision tree classifier.

PubMed

Kambhampati, Satya Samyukta; Singh, Vishal; Manikandan, M Sabarimalai; Ramkumar, Barathram

2015-08-01

In this Letter, the authors present a unified framework for fall event detection and classification using the cumulants extracted from the acceleration (ACC) signals acquired using a single waist-mounted triaxial accelerometer. The main objective of this Letter is to find suitable representative cumulants and classifiers in effectively detecting and classifying different types of fall and non-fall events. It was discovered that the first level of the proposed hierarchical decision tree algorithm implements fall detection using fifth-order cumulants and support vector machine (SVM) classifier. In the second level, the fall event classification algorithm uses the fifth-order cumulants and SVM. Finally, human activity classification is performed using the second-order cumulants and SVM. The detection and classification results are compared with those of the decision tree, naive Bayes, multilayer perceptron and SVM classifiers with different types of time-domain features including the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-order cumulants and the signal magnitude vector and signal magnitude area. The experimental results demonstrate that the second- and fifth-order cumulant features and SVM classifier can achieve optimal detection and classification rates of above 95%, as well as the lowest false alarm rate of 1.03%.

Application of fault tree approach for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing--Considering the risk events related with exhausts of coal combustion.

PubMed

Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Qian, Yu

2016-02-15

Haze weather has become a serious environmental pollution problem which occurs in many Chinese cities. One of the most critical factors for the formation of haze weather is the exhausts of coal combustion, thus it is meaningful to figure out the causation mechanism between urban haze and the exhausts of coal combustion. Based on above considerations, the fault tree analysis (FAT) approach was employed for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing by considering the risk events related with the exhausts of coal combustion for the first time. Using this approach, firstly the fault tree of the urban haze causation system connecting with coal combustion exhausts was established; consequently the risk events were discussed and identified; then, the minimal cut sets were successfully determined using Boolean algebra; finally, the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk events were completed for the qualitative and quantitative assessment. The study results proved that the FTA was an effective and simple tool for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of urban haze in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parallel adaptive wavelet collocation method for PDEs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nejadmalayeri, Alireza, E-mail: Alireza.Nejadmalayeri@gmail.com; Vezolainen, Alexei, E-mail: Alexei.Vezolainen@Colorado.edu; Brown-Dymkoski, Eric, E-mail: Eric.Browndymkoski@Colorado.edu

2015-10-01

A parallel adaptive wavelet collocation method for solving a large class of Partial Differential Equations is presented. The parallelization is achieved by developing an asynchronous parallel wavelet transform, which allows one to perform parallel wavelet transform and derivative calculations with only one data synchronization at the highest level of resolution. The data are stored using tree-like structure with tree roots starting at a priori defined level of resolution. Both static and dynamic domain partitioning approaches are developed. For the dynamic domain partitioning, trees are considered to be the minimum quanta of data to be migrated between the processes. This allowsmore » fully automated and efficient handling of non-simply connected partitioning of a computational domain. Dynamic load balancing is achieved via domain repartitioning during the grid adaptation step and reassigning trees to the appropriate processes to ensure approximately the same number of grid points on each process. The parallel efficiency of the approach is discussed based on parallel adaptive wavelet-based Coherent Vortex Simulations of homogeneous turbulence with linear forcing at effective non-adaptive resolutions up to 2048{sup 3} using as many as 2048 CPU cores.« less

Fire-mediated dieback and compositional cascade in an Amazonian forest.

PubMed

Barlow, Jos; Peres, Carlos A

2008-05-27

The only fully coupled land-atmosphere global climate model predicts a widespread dieback of Amazonian forest cover through reduced precipitation. Although these predictions are controversial, the structural and compositional resilience of Amazonian forests may also have been overestimated, as current vegetation models fail to consider the potential role of fire in the degradation of forest ecosystems. We examine forest structure and composition in the Arapiuns River basin in the central Brazilian Amazon, evaluating post-fire forest recovery and the consequences of recurrent fires for the patterns of dominance of tree species. We surveyed tree plots in unburned and once-burned forests examined 1, 3 and 9 years after an unprecedented fire event, in twice-burned forests examined 3 and 9 years after fire and in thrice-burned forests examined 5 years after the most recent fire event. The number of trees recorded in unburned primary forest control plots was stable over time. However, in both once- and twice-burned forest plots, there was a marked recruitment into the 10-20cm diameter at breast height tree size classes between 3 and 9 years post-fire. Considering tree assemblage composition 9 years after the first fire contact, we observed (i) a clear pattern of community turnover among small trees and the most abundant shrubs and saplings, and (ii) that species that were common in any of the four burn treatments (unburned, once-, twice- and thrice-burned) were often rare or entirely absent in other burn treatments. We conclude that episodic wildfires can lead to drastic changes in forest structure and composition, with cascading shifts in forest composition following each additional fire event. Finally, we use these results to evaluate the validity of the savannization paradigm.

Quantifying tree mortality in a mixed species woodland using multitemporal high spatial resolution satellite imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garrity, Steven R.; Allen, Craig D.; Brumby, Steven P.; Gangodagamage, Chandana; McDowell, Nate G.; Cai, D. Michael

2013-01-01

Widespread tree mortality events have recently been observed in several biomes. To effectively quantify the severity and extent of these events, tools that allow for rapid assessment at the landscape scale are required. Past studies using high spatial resolution satellite imagery have primarily focused on detecting green, red, and gray tree canopies during and shortly after tree damage or mortality has occurred. However, detecting trees in various stages of death is not always possible due to limited availability of archived satellite imagery. Here we assess the capability of high spatial resolution satellite imagery for tree mortality detection in a southwestern U.S. mixed species woodland using archived satellite images acquired prior to mortality and well after dead trees had dropped their leaves. We developed a multistep classification approach that uses: supervised masking of non-tree image elements; bi-temporal (pre- and post-mortality) differencing of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and red:green ratio (RGI); and unsupervised multivariate clustering of pixels into live and dead tree classes using a Gaussian mixture model. Classification accuracies were improved in a final step by tuning the rules of pixel classification using the posterior probabilities of class membership obtained from the Gaussian mixture model. Classifications were produced for two images acquired post-mortality with overall accuracies of 97.9% and 98.5%, respectively. Classified images were combined with land cover data to characterize the spatiotemporal characteristics of tree mortality across areas with differences in tree species composition. We found that 38% of tree crown area was lost during the drought period between 2002 and 2006. The majority of tree mortality during this period was concentrated in piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodlands. An additional 20% of the tree canopy died or was removed between 2006 and 2011, primarily in areas experiencing wildfire and management activity. -Our results demonstrate that unsupervised clustering of bi-temporal NDVI and RGI differences can be used to detect tree mortality resulting from numerous causes and in several forest cover types.

A 6 year longitudinal study of post-fire woody carbon dynamics in California's forests

Treesearch

Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Vicente J. Monleon; Jeremy S. Fried

2016-01-01

We examined the dynamics of aboveground forest woody carbon pools — live trees, standing dead trees, and down wood—during the first 6 years following wildfire across a wide range of conditions, which are characteristic of California forest fires. From repeated measurements of the same plots, we estimated change in woody carbon pools as a function of crown fire severity...

Fault tree analysis of the causes of waterborne outbreaks.

PubMed

Risebro, Helen L; Doria, Miguel F; Andersson, Yvonne; Medema, Gertjan; Osborn, Keith; Schlosser, Olivier; Hunter, Paul R

2007-01-01

Prevention and containment of outbreaks requires examination of the contribution and interrelation of outbreak causative events. An outbreak fault tree was developed and applied to 61 enteric outbreaks related to public drinking water supplies in the EU. A mean of 3.25 causative events per outbreak were identified; each event was assigned a score based on percentage contribution per outbreak. Source and treatment system causative events often occurred concurrently (in 34 outbreaks). Distribution system causative events occurred less frequently (19 outbreaks) but were often solitary events contributing heavily towards the outbreak (a mean % score of 87.42). Livestock and rainfall in the catchment with no/inadequate filtration of water sources contributed concurrently to 11 of 31 Cryptosporidium outbreaks. Of the 23 protozoan outbreaks experiencing at least one treatment causative event, 90% of these events were filtration deficiencies; by contrast, for bacterial, viral, gastroenteritis and mixed pathogen outbreaks, 75% of treatment events were disinfection deficiencies. Roughly equal numbers of groundwater and surface water outbreaks experienced at least one treatment causative event (18 and 17 outbreaks, respectively). Retrospective analysis of multiple outbreaks of enteric disease can be used to inform outbreak investigations, facilitate corrective measures, and further develop multi-barrier approaches.

Fault and event tree analyses for process systems risk analysis: uncertainty handling formulations.

PubMed

Ferdous, Refaul; Khan, Faisal; Sadiq, Rehan; Amyotte, Paul; Veitch, Brian

2011-01-01

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a systematic approach for evaluating likelihood, consequences, and risk of adverse events. QRA based on event (ETA) and fault tree analyses (FTA) employs two basic assumptions. The first assumption is related to likelihood values of input events, and the second assumption is regarding interdependence among the events (for ETA) or basic events (for FTA). Traditionally, FTA and ETA both use crisp probabilities; however, to deal with uncertainties, the probability distributions of input event likelihoods are assumed. These probability distributions are often hard to come by and even if available, they are subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision. Furthermore, both FTA and ETA assume that events (or basic events) are independent. In practice, these two assumptions are often unrealistic. This article focuses on handling uncertainty in a QRA framework of a process system. Fuzzy set theory and evidence theory are used to describe the uncertainties in the input event likelihoods. A method based on a dependency coefficient is used to express interdependencies of events (or basic events) in ETA and FTA. To demonstrate the approach, two case studies are discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Growth-mortality relationships in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) during severe droughts of the past century: shifting processes in space and time.

PubMed

Macalady, Alison K; Bugmann, Harald

2014-01-01

The processes leading to drought-associated tree mortality are poorly understood, particularly long-term predisposing factors, memory effects, and variability in mortality processes and thresholds in space and time. We use tree rings from four sites to investigate Pinus edulis mortality during two drought periods in the southwestern USA. We draw on recent sampling and archived collections to (1) analyze P. edulis growth patterns and mortality during the 1950s and 2000s droughts; (2) determine the influence of climate and competition on growth in trees that died and survived; and (3) derive regression models of growth-mortality risk and evaluate their performance across space and time. Recent growth was 53% higher in surviving vs. dying trees, with some sites exhibiting decades-long growth divergences associated with previous drought. Differential growth response to climate partly explained growth differences between live and dead trees, with responses wet/cool conditions most influencing eventual tree status. Competition constrained tree growth, and reduced trees' ability to respond to favorable climate. The best predictors in growth-mortality models included long-term (15-30 year) average growth rate combined with a metric of growth variability and the number of abrupt growth increases over 15 and 10 years, respectively. The most parsimonious models had high discriminatory power (ROC>0.84) and correctly classified ∼ 70% of trees, suggesting that aspects of tree growth, especially over decades, can be powerful predictors of widespread drought-associated die-off. However, model discrimination varied across sites and drought events. Weaker growth-mortality relationships and higher growth at lower survival probabilities for some sites during the 2000s event suggest a shift in mortality processes from longer-term growth-related constraints to shorter-term processes, such as rapid metabolic decline even in vigorous trees due to acute drought stress, and/or increases in the attack rate of both chronically stressed and more vigorous trees by bark beetles.

Phytomonitoring of chlorinated ethenes in trees: a four-year study of seasonal chemodynamics in planta.

PubMed

Limmer, Matt A; Holmes, Amanda J; Burken, Joel G

2014-09-16

Long-term monitoring (LTM) of groundwater remedial projects is costly and time-consuming, particularly when using phytoremediation, a long-term remedial approach. The use of trees as sensors of groundwater contamination (i.e., phytoscreening) has been widely described, although the use of trees to provide long-term monitoring of such plumes (phytomonitoring) has been more limited due to unexplained variability of contaminant concentrations in trees. To assess this variability, we developed an in planta sampling method to obtain high-frequency measurements of chlorinated ethenes in oak (Quercus rubra) and baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) trees growing above a contaminated plume during a 4-year trial. The data set revealed that contaminant concentrations increased rapidly with transpiration in the spring and decreased in the fall, resulting in perchloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) sapwood concentrations an order of magnitude higher in late summer as compared to winter. Heartwood PCE and TCE concentrations were more buffered against seasonal effects. Rainfall events caused negligible dilution of contaminant concentrations in trees after precipitation events. Modeling evapotranspiration potential from meteorological data and comparing the modeled uptake and transport with the 4 years of high frequency data provides a foundation to advance the implementation of phytomonitoring and improved understanding of plant contaminant interactions.

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

PubMed

McDowell, Nate; Allen, Craig D; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina; Brando, Paulo; Brienen, Roel; Chambers, Jeff; Christoffersen, Brad; Davies, Stuart; Doughty, Chris; Duque, Alvaro; Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Fisher, Rosie; Fontes, Clarissa G; Galbraith, David; Goodsman, Devin; Grossiord, Charlotte; Hartmann, Henrik; Holm, Jennifer; Johnson, Daniel J; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Keller, Michael; Koven, Charlie; Kueppers, Lara; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Malhi, Yadvinder; McMahon, Sean M; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Phillips, Oliver L; Powell, Thomas; Sierra, Carlos A; Sperry, John; Warren, Jeff; Xu, Chonggang; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-16

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization-induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large-scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change. No claim to original US government works New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Environment and paleoecology of a 12 ka mid-North American Younger Dryas forest chronicled in tree rings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Panyushkina, Irina P.; Leavitt, Steven W.; Thompson, Todd A.; Schneider, Allan F.; Lange, Todd

2008-01-01

Until now, availability of wood from the Younger Dryas abrupt cooling event (YDE) in N. America ca. 12.9 to 11.6 ka has been insufficient to develop high-resolution chronologies for refining our understanding of YDE conditions. Here we present a multi-proxy tree-ring chronology (ring widths, “events” evidenced by microanatomy and macro features, stable isotopes) from a buried black spruce forest in the Great Lakes area (Liverpool East site), spanning 116 yr at ca. 12,000 cal yr BP. During this largely cold and wet period, the proxies convey a coherent and precise forest history including frost events, tilting, drowning and burial in estuarine sands as the Laurentide Ice Sheet deteriorated. In the middle of the period, a short mild interval appears to have launched the final and largest episode of tree recruitment. Ultimately the tops of the trees were sheared off after death, perhaps by wind-driven ice floes, culminating an interval of rising water and sediment deposition around the base of the trees. Although relative influences of the continental ice sheet and local effects from ancestral Lake Michigan are indeterminate, the tree-ring proxies provide important insight into environment and ecology of a N. American YDE boreal forest stand.

Accounting for Landscape Heterogeneity Improves Spatial Predictions of Tree Vulnerability to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwantes, A. M.; Parolari, A.; Swenson, J. J.; Johnson, D. M.; Domec, J. C.; Jackson, R. B.; Pelak, N. F., III; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Globally, as climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability differs regionally and locally depending on landscape position. However, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heatwaves and droughts do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. To improve predictions of spatial tree vulnerability, we employed a non-linear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics across a landscape, accounting for spatial differences in aspect, topography, and soils. Our unique approach integrated plant hydraulics and landscape processes, incorporating effects from lateral redistribution of water using a topographic index and radiation and temperature differences attributable to aspect. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei. We compared our results to a detailed spatial dataset of drought-impacted areas (>25% canopy loss) derived from remote sensing during the severe 2011 drought. We then projected future dynamic water stress through the 21st century using climate projections from 10 global climate models under two scenarios, and compared models with and without landscape heterogeneity. Within this watershed, 42% of J. ashei dominated systems were impacted by the 2011 drought. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked these spatial patterns of observed drought-impacted areas. Total accuracy increased from 59%, when accounting only for soil variability, to 73% when including lateral redistribution of water and radiation and temperature effects. Dynamic water stress was projected to increase through the 21st century, with only minimal buffering from the landscape. During the hotter and more severe droughts projected in the 21st century, up to 90% of the watershed crossed a dynamic water stress threshold associated with canopy loss in 2011. Favorable microsites may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of a heterogenous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.

The Role of the Beetle Hypocryphalus mangiferae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Mango Wilt.

PubMed

Galdino, Tarcísio Visintin da Silva; Ferreira, Dalton de Oliveira; Santana Júnior, Paulo Antônio; Arcanjo, Lucas de Paulo; Queiroz, Elenir Aparecida; Sarmento, Renato Almeida; Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho

2017-06-01

The knowledge of the spatiotemporal dynamics of pathogens and their vectors is an important step in determining the pathogen dispersion pattern and the role of vectors in disease dynamics. However, in the case of mango wilt little is known about its spatiotemporal dynamics and the relationship of its vector [the beetle Hypocryphalus mangiferae (Stebbing 1914)] to these dynamics. The aim of this work was to determine the spatial-seasonal dynamic of H. mangiferae attacks and mango wilt in mango orchards and to verify the importance of H. mangiferae in the spatiotemporal dynamics of the disease. Two mango orchards were monitored during a period of 3 yr. The plants in these orchards were georeferenced and inspected monthly to quantify the number of plants attacked by beetles and the fungus. In these orchards, the percentage of mango trees attacked by beetles was always higher than the percentage infected by the fungus. The colonization of mango trees by beetles and the fungus occurred by colonization of trees both distant and proximal to previously attacked trees. The new plants attacked by the fungus emerged in places where the beetles had previously begun their attack. This phenomenon led to a large overlap in sites of beetle and fungal occurrence, indicating that establishment by the beetle was followed by establishment by the fungus. This information can be used by farmers to predict disease infection, and to control bark beetle infestation in mango orchards. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Soil-related variations in the population dynamics of six dipterocarp tree species with strong habitat preferences.

PubMed

Yamada, Toshihiro; Yamada, Yuko; Okuda, Toshinori; Fletcher, Christine

2013-07-01

Differences in the density of conspecific tree individuals in response to environmental gradients are well documented for many tree species, but how such density differences are generated and maintained is poorly understood. We examined the segregation of six dipterocarp species among three soil types in the Pasoh tropical forest, Malaysia. We examined how individual performance and population dynamics changed across the soil types using 10-year demographic data to compare tree performance across soil types, and constructed population matrix models to analyze the population dynamics. Species showed only minor changes in mortality and juvenile growth across soil types, although recruitment differed greatly. Clear, interspecific demographic trade-offs between growth and mortality were found in all soil types. The relative trade-offs by a species did not differ substantially among the soil types. Population sizes were projected to remain stable in all soil types for all species with one exception. Our life-table response experiment demonstrated that the population dynamics of a species differed only subtly among soil types. Therefore, species with strong density differences across soil types do not necessarily differ greatly in their population dynamics across the soil types. In contrast, interspecific differences in population dynamics were large. The trade-off between mortality and growth led to a negative correlation between the contributions of mortality and growth to variations in the population growth rate (λ) and thus reduced their net contributions. Recruitment had little impact on the variation in λ. The combination of these factors resulted in little variation in λ among species.

Neural computing for numeric-to-symbolic conversion in control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Passino, Kevin M.; Sartori, Michael A.; Antsaklis, Panos J.

1989-01-01

A type of neural network, the multilayer perceptron, is used to classify numeric data and assign appropriate symbols to various classes. This numeric-to-symbolic conversion results in a type of information extraction, which is similar to what is called data reduction in pattern recognition. The use of the neural network as a numeric-to-symbolic converter is introduced, its application in autonomous control is discussed, and several applications are studied. The perceptron is used as a numeric-to-symbolic converter for a discrete-event system controller supervising a continuous variable dynamic system. It is also shown how the perceptron can implement fault trees, which provide useful information (alarms) in a biological system and information for failure diagnosis and control purposes in an aircraft example.

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions

PubMed Central

Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents. PMID:28793348

Drought timing influences the legacy of tree growth recovery.

PubMed

Huang, Mengtian; Wang, Xuhui; Keenan, Trevor F; Piao, Shilong

2018-05-04

Whether and how the timing of extreme events affects the direction and magnitude of legacy effects on tree growth is poorly understood. In this study, we use a global database of Ring-Width Index (RWI) from 2,500 sites to examine the impact and legacy effects (the departure of observed RWI from expected RWI) of extreme drought events during 1948-2008, with a particular focus on the influence of drought timing. We assessed the recovery of stem radial growth in the years following severe drought events with separate groupings designed to characterize the timing of the drought. We found that legacies from extreme droughts during the dry season (DS droughts) lasted longer and had larger impacts in each of the 3 years post drought than those from extreme droughts during the wet season (WS droughts). At the global scale, the average integrated legacy from DS droughts (0.18) was about nine times that from WS droughts (0.02). Site-level comparisons also suggest stronger negative impacts or weaker positive impacts of DS droughts on tree growth than WS droughts. Our results, therefore, highlight that the timing of drought is a crucial factor determining drought impacts on tree recovery. Further increases in baseline aridity could therefore exacerbate the impact of punctuated droughts on terrestrial ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reduced transpiration response to precipitation pulses precedes mortality in a piñon-juniper woodland subject to prolonged drought.

PubMed

Plaut, Jennifer A; Wadsworth, W Duncan; Pangle, Robert; Yepez, Enrico A; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T

2013-10-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter the intensity and duration of droughts, but the effects of changing precipitation patterns on vegetation mortality are difficult to predict. Our objective was to determine whether prolonged drought or above-average precipitation altered the capacity to respond to the individual precipitation pulses that drive productivity and survival. We analyzed 5 yr of data from a rainfall manipulation experiment in piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodland using mixed effects models of transpiration response to event size, antecedent soil moisture, and post-event vapor pressure deficit. Replicated treatments included irrigation, drought, ambient control and infrastructure control. Mortality was highest under drought, and the reduced post-pulse transpiration in the droughted trees that died was attributable to treatment effects beyond drier antecedent conditions and reduced event size. In particular, trees that died were nearly unresponsive to antecedent shallow soil moisture, suggesting reduced shallow absorbing root area. Irrigated trees showed an enhanced response to precipitation pulses. Prolonged drought initiates a downward spiral whereby trees are increasingly unable to utilize pulsed soil moisture. Thus, the additive effects of future, more frequent droughts may increase drought-related mortality. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

PubMed

Wang, Hetang; Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.

Drought stress, growth, and nonstructural carbohydrate dynamics of pine trees in a semi-arid forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Tamir; Yakir, Dan; Hoch, Günter

2014-05-01

• In trees under prolonged drought, both carbon uptake (C source) and growth (C sink) typically decrease. This correlation raises two important questions: (1) to what degree is tree growth limited by C availability; and (2) Is growth limited by concurrent C storage (e.g. as nonstructural carbohydrates, NSC). • To test the relationships between drought, growth, and C reserves, we monitored the changes in NSC levels and constructed stem growth chronologies of Pinus halepensis trees of three drought stress levels growing in Yatir forest, Israel, at the dry limit of forest existence. • Moderately stressed and stressed trees showed 37% and 21% of the stem growth of healthy trees in 2012; 71% and 31% of the sap flux density; and 79% and 66% of the final needle length. In spite of these large reductions, both starch and soluble sugars concentrations in branches of these trees were similar in all trees throughout the dry season (2-4% dry mass). At the same time the root starch concentrations of moderately stressed and stressed trees were 47% and 58% of that of healthy trees, but never below 2% d.m. • Our results suggest that the drought-induced growth reduction is associated with a general C shortage, rather than competition with concurrent C storage. The relatively small effect of drought stress level on NSC dynamics, the maintenance of a 2% d.m. starch, and the continued sap flow indicate that a whole-tree C starvation is not likely to occur in these trees growing at the edge of the desert. Special request: If the abstract is not accepted for presentation in this session, please consider for presentation in session BG2.11 Plant traits and biogeochemical cycles. Thank you.

EG-07CELL CYCLE SIGNATURE AND TUMOR PHYLOGENY ARE ENCODED IN THE EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS OF DNA METHYLATION IN GLIOMA

PubMed Central

Mazor, Tali; Pankov, Aleksandr; Johnson, Brett E.; Hong, Chibo; Bell, Robert J.A.; Smirnov, Ivan V.; Reis, Gerald F.; Phillips, Joanna J.; Barnes, Michael; Bollen, Andrew W.; Taylor, Barry S.; Molinaro, Annette M.; Olshen, Adam B.; Song, Jun S.; Berger, Mitchel S.; Chang, Susan M.; Costello, Joseph F.

2014-01-01

The clonal evolution of tumor cell populations can be reconstructed from patterns of genetic alterations. In contrast, tumor epigenetic states, including DNA methylation, are reversible and sensitive to the tumor microenvironment, presumably precluding the use of epigenetics to discover tumor phylogeny. Here we examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of DNA methylation in a clinically and genetically characterized cohort of IDH1-mutant low-grade gliomas and their patient-matched recurrences. WHO grade II gliomas are diffuse, infiltrative tumors that frequently recur and may undergo malignant progression to a higher grade with a worse prognosis. The extent to which epigenetic alterations contribute to the evolution of low-grade gliomas, including malignant progression, is unknown. While all gliomas in the cohort exhibited the hypermethylation signature associated with IDH1 mutation, low-grade gliomas that underwent malignant progression to high-grade glioblastoma (GBM) had a unique signature of DNA hypomethylation enriched for active enhancers, as well as sites of age-related hypermethylation in the brain. Genes with promoter hypomethylation and concordant transcriptional upregulation during evolution to GBM were enriched in cell cycle function, evolving in concert with genetic alterations that deregulate the G1/S cell cycle checkpoint. Despite the plasticity of tumor epigenetic states, phyloepigenetic trees robustly recapitulated phylogenetic trees derived from somatic mutations in the same patients. These findings highlight widespread co-dependency of genetic and epigenetic events throughout the clonal evolution of initial and recurrent glioma.

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...