PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL CONTROLS ON DISSOLVED OXYGEN DYNAMICS IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL

EPA Science Inventory

Nutrient enrichment of estuaries and coastal waters can contribute to hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) by increasing primary production and biological oxygen demand. Other factors, however, contribute to hypoxia and affect the susceptibility of coastal waters to hypoxia. Hypoxia fo...

The evolution of meaning: spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition.

PubMed

Clarke, Alex; Taylor, Kirsten I; Tyler, Lorraine K

2011-08-01

Research on the spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition suggests a recurrent, interactive model whereby an initial feedforward sweep through the ventral stream to prefrontal cortex is followed by recurrent interactions. However, critical questions remain regarding the factors that mediate the degree of recurrent interactions necessary for meaningful object recognition. The novel prediction we test here is that recurrent interactivity is driven by increasing semantic integration demands as defined by the complexity of semantic information required by the task and driven by the stimuli. To test this prediction, we recorded magnetoencephalography data while participants named living and nonliving objects during two naming tasks. We found that the spatio-temporal dynamics of neural activity were modulated by the level of semantic integration required. Specifically, source reconstructed time courses and phase synchronization measures showed increased recurrent interactions as a function of semantic integration demands. These findings demonstrate that the cortical dynamics of object processing are modulated by the complexity of semantic information required from the visual input.

Liquid li structure and dynamics: A comparison between OFDFT and second nearest-neighbor embedded-atom method

DOE PAGES

Chen, Mohan; Vella, Joseph R.; Panagiotopoulos, Athanassios Z.; ...

2015-04-08

The structure and dynamics of liquid lithium are studied using two simulation methods: orbital-free (OF) first-principles molecular dynamics (MD), which employs OF density functional theory (DFT), and classical MD utilizing a second nearest-neighbor embedded-atom method potential. The properties we studied include the dynamic structure factor, the self-diffusion coefficient, the dispersion relation, the viscosity, and the bond angle distribution function. Our simulation results were compared to available experimental data when possible. Each method has distinct advantages and disadvantages. For example, OFDFT gives better agreement with experimental dynamic structure factors, yet is more computationally demanding than classical simulations. Classical simulations can accessmore » a broader temperature range and longer time scales. The combination of first-principles and classical simulations is a powerful tool for studying properties of liquid lithium.« less

The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

2017-05-01

Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

Effects of Steady-State Noise on Verbal Working Memory in Young Adults

PubMed Central

Alt, Mary; DeDe, Gayle; Olson, Sarah; Shehorn, James

2015-01-01

Purpose We set out to examine the impact of perceptual, linguistic, and capacity demands on performance of verbal working-memory tasks. The Ease of Language Understanding model (Rönnberg et al., 2013) provides a framework for testing the dynamics of these interactions within the auditory-cognitive system. Methods Adult native speakers of English (n = 45) participated in verbal working-memory tasks requiring processing and storage of words involving different linguistic demands (closed/open set). Capacity demand ranged from 2 to 7 words per trial. Participants performed the tasks in quiet and in speech-spectrum-shaped noise. Separate groups of participants were tested at different signal-to-noise ratios. Word-recognition measures were obtained to determine effects of noise on intelligibility. Results Contrary to predictions, steady-state noise did not have an adverse effect on working-memory performance in every situation. Noise negatively influenced performance for the task with high linguistic demand. Of particular importance is the finding that the adverse effects of background noise were not confined to conditions involving declines in recognition. Conclusions Perceptual, linguistic, and cognitive demands can dynamically affect verbal working-memory performance even in a population of healthy young adults. Results suggest that researchers and clinicians need to carefully analyze task demands to understand the independent and combined auditory-cognitive factors governing performance in everyday listening situations. PMID:26384291

Aging Water Infrastructure and Nutrient Control at WWTPs: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Program

EPA Science Inventory

What are… the effects of major influencing factors (climate change, population dynamics, etc.) on future system demands? the innovative technologies that can cost-effectively improve performance and extend the life of existing systems? the new designs and management approaches...

Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework. PMID:29533657

Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances.

PubMed

Deetman, Sebastiaan; Pauliuk, Stefan; van Vuuren, Detlef P; van der Voet, Ester; Tukker, Arnold

2018-04-17

This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework.

Optimized maritime emergency resource allocation under dynamic demand.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenfen; Yan, Xinping; Yang, Jiaqi

2017-01-01

Emergency resource is important for people evacuation and property rescue when accident occurs. The relief efforts could be promoted by a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule in advance. As the marine environment is complicated and changeful, the place, type, severity of maritime accident is uncertain and stochastic, bringing about dynamic demand of emergency resource. Considering dynamic demand, how to make a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule is challenging. The key problem is to determine the optimal stock of emergency resource for supplier centers to improve relief efforts. This paper studies the dynamic demand, and which is defined as a set. Then a maritime emergency resource allocation model with uncertain data is presented. Afterwards, a robust approach is developed and used to make sure that the resource allocation schedule performs well with dynamic demand. Finally, a case study shows that the proposed methodology is feasible in maritime emergency resource allocation. The findings could help emergency manager to schedule the emergency resource allocation more flexibly in terms of dynamic demand.

Optimized maritime emergency resource allocation under dynamic demand

PubMed Central

Yan, Xinping; Yang, Jiaqi

2017-01-01

Emergency resource is important for people evacuation and property rescue when accident occurs. The relief efforts could be promoted by a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule in advance. As the marine environment is complicated and changeful, the place, type, severity of maritime accident is uncertain and stochastic, bringing about dynamic demand of emergency resource. Considering dynamic demand, how to make a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule is challenging. The key problem is to determine the optimal stock of emergency resource for supplier centers to improve relief efforts. This paper studies the dynamic demand, and which is defined as a set. Then a maritime emergency resource allocation model with uncertain data is presented. Afterwards, a robust approach is developed and used to make sure that the resource allocation schedule performs well with dynamic demand. Finally, a case study shows that the proposed methodology is feasible in maritime emergency resource allocation. The findings could help emergency manager to schedule the emergency resource allocation more flexibly in terms of dynamic demand. PMID:29240792

Economic benefits of midseason reordering in apparel retailing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamont, A.; Elayat, H.

1995-09-27

This report presents a method for determining the value of reordering, explores factors that affect its value, and provides an estimate of the value under a range of conditions. The method is based on a stochastic process model of the demands the retailer faces. It uses a dynamic programming model to determine the optimal quantities to order and the expected profits. The analysis shows that the benefits of reordering are quite sensitive to the uncertainties in the demand and to the assumptions about the markdown of unsold merchandise at the end of the season.

­­Drought, water conservation, and water demand rebound in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, P.; Ajami, N.

2017-12-01

There is growing recognition that dynamic community values, preferences, and water use behaviors are important drivers of water demand in addition to external factors such as temperature and precipitation. Water demand drivers have been extensively studied, yet they have traditionally been applied to models that assume static conditions and usually do not account for potential societal changes in response to increased scarcity awareness. For example, following a period of sustained low demand such as during a drought, communities often increase water use during a hydrologically wet period, a phenomenon known as "rebounding" water use. Yet previous experiences show the extent of this rebound is not a straightforward function of policy and efficiency improvements, but may also reflect short-term or long-lasting change in community behavior, which are not easily captured by models that assume stationarity. In this study we explore cycles of decreased water demand during drought and subsequent water use rebound observed in California in recent decades. We have developed a novel dynamic system model for water demand in three diverse but interconnected service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area, exposing local trends of changing water use behaviors and long-term impacts on water demand since 1980 to the present. In this model, we apply the concept of social memory, defined as a community's inherited knowledge about hazardous events or degraded environmental conditions from past experiences. While this concept has been applied to further conceptual understanding of socio-hydrologic systems in response to hydrological extremes, to the best of our knowledge this the first study to incorporate social memory to model the water demand rebound phenomenon and to use such a model in the examination of changing dynamics validated by historical data. In addition, we take a closer look at water demand during the recent historic drought in California from 2012-16, and relate our long-term insights to recent events and statewide trends. This comparative modeling exercise shows that increased public awareness during droughts can be related to systematic changes in the way diverse communities respond to near- and long-term conservation incentives.

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

PubMed

Fu, Peihua; Zhu, Anding; Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities also represents a highly correlated analysis tool to evaluate the advertising value of TV series.

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion

PubMed Central

Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

2016-01-01

Background Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. Methods We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. Results We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. Conclusion To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities also represents a highly correlated analysis tool to evaluate the advertising value of TV series. PMID:27669520

The influence of wheelchair propulsion technique on upper extremity muscle demand: a simulation study.

PubMed

Rankin, Jeffery W; Kwarciak, Andrew M; Richter, W Mark; Neptune, Richard R

2012-11-01

The majority of manual wheelchair users will experience upper extremity injuries or pain, in part due to the high force requirements, repetitive motion and extreme joint postures associated with wheelchair propulsion. Recent studies have identified cadence, contact angle and peak force as important factors for reducing upper extremity demand during propulsion. However, studies often make comparisons between populations (e.g., able-bodied vs. paraplegic) or do not investigate specific measures of upper extremity demand. The purpose of this study was to use a musculoskeletal model and forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to investigate how altering cadence, peak force and contact angle influence individual muscle demand. Forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion were generated to emulate group-averaged experimental data during four conditions: 1) self-selected propulsion technique, and while 2) minimizing cadence, 3) maximizing contact angle, and 4) minimizing peak force using biofeedback. Simulations were used to determine individual muscle mechanical power and stress as measures of muscle demand. Minimizing peak force and cadence had the lowest muscle power requirements. However, minimizing peak force increased cadence and recovery power, while minimizing cadence increased average muscle stress. Maximizing contact angle increased muscle stress and had the highest muscle power requirements. Minimizing cadence appears to have the most potential for reducing muscle demand and fatigue, which could decrease upper extremity injuries and pain. However, altering any of these variables to extreme values appears to be less effective; instead small to moderate changes may better reduce overall muscle demand. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Systemic Vision of the Educational Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lima, Nilton Cesar; Penedo, Antonio Sergio Torres; de Oliveira, Marcio Mattos Borges; de Oliveira, Sonia Valle Walter Borges; Queiroz, Jamerson Viegas

2012-01-01

As the sophistication of technology is increasing, also increased the demand for quality in education. The expectation for quality has promoted broad range of products and systems, including in education. These factors include the increased diversity in the student body, which requires greater emphasis that allows a simple and dynamic model in the…

Analysing the Effect of Demand Uncertainty in Dynamic Pricing with EAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakya, Siddhartha; Oliveira, Fernando; Owusu, Gilbert

Dynamic pricing is a pricing strategy where a firm adjust the price for their products and services as a function of its perceived demand at different times. In this paper, we show how Evolutionary algorithms (EA) can be used to analyse the effect of demand uncertainty in dynamic pricing. The experiments are conducted in a range of dynamic pricing problems considering a number of different stochastic scenarios with a number of different EAs. The results are analysed, which suggest that higher demand fluctuation may not have adverse effect to the profit in comparison to the lower demand fluctuation, and that the reliability of EA for finding accurate policy could be higher when there is higher fluctuation then when there is lower fluctuation.

Simulating Residential Demand in Singapore through Five Decades of Demographic Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, N. R.; Fernández, J.

2011-12-01

Singapore's rapid and well-documented development over the last half-century provides an ideal case for studying urban metabolism. Extensive data [1, 2] facilitate the modeling of historical dynamics of population and resource consumption. This paper presents an agent-based population model that simulates key demographic factors - number, size, and relative income of households - through fifty years of development in Singapore. This is the first step in a broader study linking demographic factors to residential demand for urban land, materials, water, and energy. Previous studies of the resource demands of housing stock have accounted for demographics by modifying the important population driver with a single, aggregated "lifestyle" term [3, 4]. However, demographic changes that result from development can influence the nature of the residential sector, and warrant a closer look. Increasing levels of education and affluence coupled with decreasing birth rates have yielded an aging population and changing family structures in Singapore [5]. These factors all contribute to an increasingly resource-intense residential sector. Singaporeans' elevated per capita income and life expectancy have created demand for larger household area, which means a growing percentage of available land must be dedicated to residential use [6]. While the majority of Singapore's housing is public - a strategy designed to maximize land use efficiency - residents are increasingly seeking private alternatives [7]. In the private sector, lower density housing puts even greater pressure on the finite supply of undeveloped land. Agent-based modeling is used to study the selected aspects of demography. The population is disaggregated into historical time-series distributions of age, family size, education, and income. We propose a simplified methodology correlating average education level with birth rate, and income to categorize households and establish housing unit demand. Aggregated lifestyle variables have proven useful for simulating past resource consumption in some cases, but demographic shifts are important causal factors in future demand that would not be captured by these simple terms. For this reason disaggregated population modeling provides better insight into the size and income distributions of households that ultimately drive residential resource consumption. References [1] Yearbook of Statistics Singapore. Dept. of Statistics, Ministry of Trade & Industry, 1960-2011. [2] HDB Annual Report. Housing & Development Board, Ministry of National Development, 1960-2011. [3] B. Muller, "Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows-case study for housing in the Netherlands," Ecol Econ, vol. 59, no. 1, pp. 142-156, 2006. [4] H. Bergsdal, et al., "Dynamic material flow analysis for Norway's dwelling stock," Build Res Inf, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 557-570, 2007. [5] D. Phillips and H. Bartlett, "Aging trends-Singapore," J Cross Cult Gerontol, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 349-356, 1995. [6] T. Wong and A. Yap, Four decades of transformation: Land use in Singapore, 1960-2000. Eastern University Press, 2004. [7] -, "From universal public housing to meeting the increasing aspiration for private housing in Singapore," Habitat Int, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 361-380, 2003.

Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Román, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-06-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roman, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-01-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services.

PubMed

Román, Miguel O; Stokes, Eleanor C

2015-06-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Assessing the ability of potential evapotranspiration models in capturing dynamics of evaporative demand across various biomes and climatic regimes with ChinaFLUX measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Han; Yu, Guirui; Wang, Qiufeng; Zhu, Xianjin; Yan, Junhua; Wang, Huimin; Shi, Peili; Zhao, Fenghua; Li, Yingnian; Zhao, Liang; Zhang, Junhui; Wang, Yanfen

2017-08-01

Estimates of atmospheric evaporative demand have been widely required for a variety of hydrological analyses, with potential evapotranspiration (PET) being an important measure representing evaporative demand of actual vegetated surfaces under given metrological conditions. In this study, we assessed the ability of various PET models in capturing long-term (typically 2003-2011) dynamics of evaporative demand at eight ecosystems across various biomes and climatic regimes in China. Prior to assessing PET dynamics, we first examined the reasonability of fourteen PET models in representing the magnitudes of evaporative demand using eddy-covariance actual evapotranspiration (AET) as an indicator. Results showed that the robustness of the fourteen PET models differed somewhat across the sites, and only three PET models could produce reasonable magnitudes of evaporative demand (i.e., PET ≥ AET on average) for all eight sites, including the: (i) Penman; (ii) Priestly-Taylor and (iii) Linacre models. Then, we assessed the ability of these three PET models in capturing dynamics of evaporative demand by comparing the annual and seasonal trends in PET against the equivalent trends in AET and precipitation (P) for particular sites. Results indicated that nearly all the three PET models could faithfully reproduce the dynamics in evaporative demand for the energy-limited conditions at both annual and seasonal scales, while only the Penman and Linacre models could represent dynamics in evaporative demand for the water-limited conditions. However, the Linacre model was unable to reproduce the seasonal switches between water- and energy-limited states for some sites. Our findings demonstrated that the choice of PET models would be essential for the evaporative demand analyses and other related hydrological analyses at different temporal and spatial scales.

Customer demand prediction of service-oriented manufacturing using the least square support vector machine optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Jin; Jiang, Zhibin; Wang, Kangzhou

2017-07-01

Many nonlinear customer satisfaction-related factors significantly influence the future customer demand for service-oriented manufacturing (SOM). To address this issue and enhance the prediction accuracy, this article develops a novel customer demand prediction approach for SOM. The approach combines the phase space reconstruction (PSR) technique with the optimized least square support vector machine (LSSVM). First, the prediction sample space is reconstructed by the PSR to enrich the time-series dynamics of the limited data sample. Then, the generalization and learning ability of the LSSVM are improved by the hybrid polynomial and radial basis function kernel. Finally, the key parameters of the LSSVM are optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm. In a real case study, the customer demand prediction of an air conditioner compressor is implemented. Furthermore, the effectiveness and validity of the proposed approach are demonstrated by comparison with other classical predication approaches.

Word Naming in the L1 and L2: A Dynamic Perspective on Automatization and the Degree of Semantic Involvement in Naming.

PubMed

Plat, Rika; Lowie, Wander; de Bot, Kees

2017-01-01

Reaction time data have long been collected in order to gain insight into the underlying mechanisms involved in language processing. Means analyses often attempt to break down what factors relate to what portion of the total reaction time. From a dynamic systems theory perspective or an interaction dominant view of language processing, it is impossible to isolate discrete factors contributing to language processing, since these continually and interactively play a role. Non-linear analyses offer the tools to investigate the underlying process of language use in time, without having to isolate discrete factors. Patterns of variability in reaction time data may disclose the relative contribution of automatic (grapheme-to-phoneme conversion) processing and attention-demanding (semantic) processing. The presence of a fractal structure in the variability of a reaction time series indicates automaticity in the mental structures contributing to a task. A decorrelated pattern of variability will indicate a higher degree of attention-demanding processing. A focus on variability patterns allows us to examine the relative contribution of automatic and attention-demanding processing when a speaker is using the mother tongue (L1) or a second language (L2). A word naming task conducted in the L1 (Dutch) and L2 (English) shows L1 word processing to rely more on automatic spelling-to-sound conversion than L2 word processing. A word naming task with a semantic categorization subtask showed more reliance on attention-demanding semantic processing when using the L2. A comparison to L1 English data shows this was not only due to the amount of language use or language dominance, but also to the difference in orthographic depth between Dutch and English. An important implication of this finding is that when the same task is used to test and compare different languages, one cannot straightforwardly assume the same cognitive sub processes are involved to an equal degree using the same task in different languages.

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K.

2010-01-01

The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers. In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy. Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values. There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades. PMID:20713389

Research on influence factor about the dynamic characteristic of armored vehicle hydraulic-driven fan system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Zhiqiang; Mao, Feiyue; Liu, Xiangbo; Li, Huaying; Han, Shousong

2017-01-01

In view of the large power of armored vehicle cooling system, the demand for high fan speed control and energy saving, this paper expounds the basic composition and principle of hydraulic-driven fan system and establishes the mathematical model of the system. Through the simulation analysis of different parameters, such as displacement of motor and working volume of fan system, the influences of performance parameters on the dynamic characteristic of hydraulic-driven fan system are obtained, which can provide theoretical guidance for system optimization design.

Conceptualizing the dynamics of a drought affected agricultural community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Bloeschl, Guenter

2015-04-01

Climate and especially water availability and variability play an important role in the development of our societies. This can be seen through the vast investments that are made in reaching water security and the economic impact regions experience when the rains fail. However, the limit of available fresh water is increasingly felt as our population increases and the demand for water continues to rise. But how do we as society respond? Are periods of drought making us more resilient? The answer to this question is sought through the development of a stylized model that is built within the spirit of the Easter Island model by Brander and Taylor and aimed at capturing the essence of the dynamics of water supply and demand. By explicitly incorporating feedbacks, but keeping the framework simple, the model seeks to understand qualitative behavior of our socio-hydrological system as opposed to predicting exact pathways. The model shows that carrying capacity dynamics are a determining factor for continued growth. Future work will explore the underlying relationships further, among others, through examination of case studies.

Estimating Oxygen Needs for Childhood Pneumonia in Developing Country Health Systems: A New Model for Expecting the Unexpected

PubMed Central

Bradley, Beverly D.; Howie, Stephen R. C.; Chan, Timothy C. Y.; Cheng, Yu-Ling

2014-01-01

Background Planning for the reliable and cost-effective supply of a health service commodity such as medical oxygen requires an understanding of the dynamic need or ‘demand’ for the commodity over time. In developing country health systems, however, collecting longitudinal clinical data for forecasting purposes is very difficult. Furthermore, approaches to estimating demand for supplies based on annual averages can underestimate demand some of the time by missing temporal variability. Methods A discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate variable demand for a health service commodity using the important example of medical oxygen for childhood pneumonia. The model is based on five key factors affecting oxygen demand: annual pneumonia admission rate, hypoxaemia prevalence, degree of seasonality, treatment duration, and oxygen flow rate. These parameters were varied over a wide range of values to generate simulation results for different settings. Total oxygen volume, peak patient load, and hours spent above average-based demand estimates were computed for both low and high seasons. Findings Oxygen demand estimates based on annual average values of demand factors can often severely underestimate actual demand. For scenarios with high hypoxaemia prevalence and degree of seasonality, demand can exceed average levels up to 68% of the time. Even for typical scenarios, demand may exceed three times the average level for several hours per day. Peak patient load is sensitive to hypoxaemia prevalence, whereas time spent at such peak loads is strongly influenced by degree of seasonality. Conclusion A theoretical study is presented whereby a simulation approach to estimating oxygen demand is used to better capture temporal variability compared to standard average-based approaches. This approach provides better grounds for health service planning, including decision-making around technologies for oxygen delivery. Beyond oxygen, this approach is widely applicable to other areas of resource and technology planning in developing country health systems. PMID:24587089

Identification of Characterization Factor for Power System Oscillation Based on Multiple Synchronized Phasor Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashiguchi, Takuhei; Watanabe, Masayuki; Matsushita, Akihiro; Mitani, Yasunori; Saeki, Osamu; Tsuji, Kiichiro; Hojo, Masahide; Ukai, Hiroyuki

Electric power systems in Japan are composed of remote and distributed location of generators and loads mainly concentrated in large demand areas. The structures having long distance transmission tend to produce heavy power flow with increasing electric power demand. In addition, some independent power producers (IPP) and power producer and suppliers (PPS) are participating in the power generation business, which makes power system dynamics more complex. However, there was little observation as a whole power system. In this paper the authors present a global monitoring system of power system dynamics by using the synchronized phasor measurement of demand side outlets. Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) are synchronized based on the global positioning system (GPS). The purpose of this paper is to show oscillation characteristics and methods for processing original data obtained from PMU after certain power system disturbances triggered by some accidents. This analysis resulted in the observation of the lowest and the second lowest frequency mode. The derivation of eigenvalue with two degree of freedom model brings a monitoring of two oscillation modes. Signal processing based on Wavelet analysis and simulation studies to illustrate the obtained phenomena are demonstrated in detail.

Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method.

PubMed

Zomorodian, Mehdi; Lai, Sai Hin; Homayounfar, Mehran; Ibrahim, Shaliza; Pender, Gareth

2017-01-01

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system.

Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method

PubMed Central

Lai, Sai Hin; Homayounfar, Mehran; Ibrahim, Shaliza; Pender, Gareth

2017-01-01

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system. PMID:29216200

Energy demand of the German and Dutch residential building stock under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olonscheck, Mady; Holsten, Anne; Walther, Carsten; Kropp, Jürgen P.

2014-05-01

In order to mitigate climate change, extraordinary measures are necessary in the future. The building sector, in particular, offers considerable potential for transformation to lower energy demand. On a national level, however, successful and far-reaching measures will likely be taken only if reliable estimates regarding future energy demand from different scenarios are available. The energy demand for space heating and cooling is determined by a combination of behavioral, climatic, constructional, and demographic factors. For two countries, namely Germany and the Netherlands, we analyze the combined effect of future climate and building stock changes as well as renovation measures on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings until 2060. We show how much the heating energy demand will decrease in the future and answer the question of whether the energy decrease will be exceeded by an increase in cooling energy demand. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we determine those influencing factors with the largest impact on the future energy demand from the building stock. Both countries have national targets regarding the reduction of the energy demand for the future. We provide relevant information concerning the annual renovation rates that are necessary to reach these targets. Retrofitting buildings is a win-win option as it not only helps to mitigate climate change and to lower the dependency on fossil fuels but also transforms the buildings stock into one that is better equipped for extreme temperatures that may occur more frequently with climate change. For the Netherlands, the study concentrates not only on the national, but also the provincial level, which should facilitate directed policy measures. Moreover, the analysis is done on a monthly basis in order to ascertain a deeper understanding of the future seasonal energy demand changes. Our approach constitutes an important first step towards deeper insights into the internal dynamics of the building sector and its climate sensitivity.

Virtual water trade patterns in relation to environmental and socioeconomic factors: A case study for Tunisia.

PubMed

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten S; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2018-02-01

Growing water demands put increasing pressure on local water resources, especially in water-short countries. Virtual water trade can play a key role in filling the gap between local demand and supply of water-intensive commodities. This study aims to analyse the dynamics in virtual water trade of Tunisia in relation to environmental and socio-economic factors such as GDP, irrigated land, precipitation, population and water scarcity. The water footprint of crop production is estimated using AquaCrop for six crops over the period 1981-2010. Net virtual water import (NVWI) is quantified at yearly basis. Regression models are used to investigate dynamics in NVWI in relation to the selected factors. The results show that NVWI during the study period for the selected crops is not influenced by blue water scarcity. NVWI correlates in two alternative models to either population and precipitation (model I) or to GDP and irrigated area (model II). The models are better in explaining NVWI of staple crops (wheat, barley, potatoes) than NVWI of cash crops (dates, olives, tomatoes). Using model I, we are able to explain both trends and inter-annual variability for rain-fed crops. Model II performs better for irrigated crops and is able to explain trends significantly; no significant relation is found, however, with variables hypothesized to represent inter-annual variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand.

PubMed

Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen; Crawford, James M; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B; Wheeler, Thomas M; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B; Robboy, Stanley J

2015-01-01

Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

PubMed Central

Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

2015-01-01

Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751

Supply based on demand dynamical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

2018-04-01

We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Argument Retrieval and Reordering: An fMRI and EEG Study on Sentence Processing

PubMed Central

Meyer, Lars; Obleser, Jonas; Kiebel, Stefan J.; Friederici, Angela D.

2012-01-01

In sentence processing, it is still unclear how the neural language network successfully establishes argument–verb dependencies in its spatiotemporal neuronal dynamics. Previous work has suggested that the establishment of subject–verb and object–verb dependencies requires argument retrieval from working memory, and that dependency establishment in object-first sentences additionally necessitates argument reordering. We examine the spatiotemporal neuronal dynamics of the brain regions that subserve these sub-processes by crossing an argument reordering factor (i.e., subject-first versus object-first sentences) with an argument retrieval factor (i.e., short versus long argument–verb dependencies) in German. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we found that reordering demands focally activate the left pars opercularis (Broca’s area), while storage and retrieval demands activated left temporo-parietal (TP) regions. In addition, when analyzing the time course of fMRI-informed equivalent current dipole sources in the EEG at the subcategorizing verb, we found that activity in the TP-region occurs relatively early (40–180 ms), followed by activity in Broca’s area (300–500 ms). These findings were matched by topographical correlation analyses of fMRI activations in EEG sensor space, showing that, in the scalp potential, TP-region activity surfaces as an early positivity and IFG activity as a later positivity in the scalp potential. These results provide fine-grained evidence for spatiotemporally separable sub-processes of argument retrieval and reordering in sentence processing. PMID:23248607

Conceptualizing the dynamics of workplace stress: a systems-based study of nursing aides.

PubMed

Jetha, Arif; Kernan, Laura; Kurowski, Alicia

2017-01-05

Workplace stress is a complex phenomenon that may often be dynamic and evolving over time. Traditional linear modeling does not allow representation of recursive feedback loops among the implicated factors. The objective of this study was to develop a multidimensional system dynamics model (SDM) of workplace stress among nursing aides and conduct simulations to illustrate how changes in psychosocial perceptions and workplace factors might influence workplace stress over time. Eight key informants with prior experience in a large study of US nursing home workers participated in model building. Participants brainstormed the range of components related to workplace stress. Components were grouped together based on common themes and translated into feedback loops. The SDM was parameterized through key informant insight on the shape and magnitude of the relationship between model components. Model construction was also supported utilizing survey data collected as part of the larger study. All data was entered into the software program, Vensim. Simulations were conducted to examine how adaptations to model components would influence workplace stress. The SDM included perceptions of organizational conditions (e.g., job demands and job control), workplace social support (i.e., managerial and coworker social support), workplace safety, and demands outside of work (i.e. work-family conflict). Each component was part of a reinforcing feedback loop. Simulations exhibited that scenarios with increasing job control and decreasing job demands led to a decline in workplace stress. Within the context of the system, the effects of workplace social support, workplace safety, and work-family conflict were relatively minor. SDM methodology offers a unique perspective for researchers and practitioners to view workplace stress as a dynamic process. The portrayal of multiple recursive feedback loops can guide the development of policies and programs within complex organizational contexts with attention both to interactions among causes and avoidance of adverse unintended consequences. While additional research is needed to further test the modeling approach, findings might underscore the need to direct workplace interventions towards changing organizational conditions for nursing aides.

Biological underpinnings of breastfeeding challenges: the role of genetics, diet, and environment on lactation physiology

PubMed Central

Lee, Sooyeon

2016-01-01

Lactation is a dynamic process that has evolved to produce a complex biological fluid that provides nutritive and nonnutritive factors to the nursing offspring. It has long been assumed that once lactation is successfully initiated, the primary factor regulating milk production is infant demand. Thus, most interventions have focused on improving breastfeeding education and early lactation support. However, in addition to infant demand, increasing evidence from studies conducted in experimental animal models, production animals, and breastfeeding women suggests that a diverse array of maternal factors may also affect milk production and composition. In this review, we provide an overview of our current understanding of the role of maternal genetics and modifiable factors, such as diet and environmental exposures, on reproductive endocrinology, lactation physiology, and the ability to successfully produce milk. To identify factors that may affect lactation in women, we highlight some information gleaned from studies in experimental animal models and production animals. Finally, we highlight the gaps in current knowledge and provide commentary on future research opportunities aimed at improving lactation outcomes in breastfeeding women to improve the health of mothers and their infants. PMID:27354238

Pollution source localization in an urban water supply network based on dynamic water demand.

PubMed

Yan, Xuesong; Zhu, Zhixin; Li, Tian

2017-10-27

Urban water supply networks are susceptible to intentional, accidental chemical, and biological pollution, which pose a threat to the health of consumers. In recent years, drinking-water pollution incidents have occurred frequently, seriously endangering social stability and security. The real-time monitoring for water quality can be effectively implemented by placing sensors in the water supply network. However, locating the source of pollution through the data detection obtained by water quality sensors is a challenging problem. The difficulty lies in the limited number of sensors, large number of water supply network nodes, and dynamic user demand for water, which leads the pollution source localization problem to an uncertainty, large-scale, and dynamic optimization problem. In this paper, we mainly study the dynamics of the pollution source localization problem. Previous studies of pollution source localization assume that hydraulic inputs (e.g., water demand of consumers) are known. However, because of the inherent variability of urban water demand, the problem is essentially a fluctuating dynamic problem of consumer's water demand. In this paper, the water demand is considered to be stochastic in nature and can be described using Gaussian model or autoregressive model. On this basis, an optimization algorithm is proposed based on these two dynamic water demand change models to locate the pollution source. The objective of the proposed algorithm is to find the locations and concentrations of pollution sources that meet the minimum between the analogue and detection values of the sensor. Simulation experiments were conducted using two different sizes of urban water supply network data, and the experimental results were compared with those of the standard genetic algorithm.

Strategic emergency department design: An approach to capacity planning in healthcare provision in overcrowded emergency rooms.

PubMed

Exadaktylos, Aristomenis K; Evangelopoulos, Dimitrios S; Wullschleger, Marcel; Bürki, Leo; Zimmermann, Heinz

2008-11-17

Healthcare professionals and the public have increasing concerns about the ability of emergency departments to meet current demands. Increased demand for emergency services, mainly caused by a growing number of minor and moderate injuries has reached crisis proportions, especially in the United Kingdom. Numerous efforts have been made to explore the complex causes because it is becoming more and more important to provide adequate healthcare within tight budgets. Optimisation of patient pathways in the emergency department is therefore an important factor.This paper explores the possibilities offered by dynamic simulation tools to improve patient pathways using the emergency department of a busy university teaching hospital in Switzerland as an example.

Word Naming in the L1 and L2: A Dynamic Perspective on Automatization and the Degree of Semantic Involvement in Naming

PubMed Central

Plat, Rika; Lowie, Wander; de Bot, Kees

2018-01-01

Reaction time data have long been collected in order to gain insight into the underlying mechanisms involved in language processing. Means analyses often attempt to break down what factors relate to what portion of the total reaction time. From a dynamic systems theory perspective or an interaction dominant view of language processing, it is impossible to isolate discrete factors contributing to language processing, since these continually and interactively play a role. Non-linear analyses offer the tools to investigate the underlying process of language use in time, without having to isolate discrete factors. Patterns of variability in reaction time data may disclose the relative contribution of automatic (grapheme-to-phoneme conversion) processing and attention-demanding (semantic) processing. The presence of a fractal structure in the variability of a reaction time series indicates automaticity in the mental structures contributing to a task. A decorrelated pattern of variability will indicate a higher degree of attention-demanding processing. A focus on variability patterns allows us to examine the relative contribution of automatic and attention-demanding processing when a speaker is using the mother tongue (L1) or a second language (L2). A word naming task conducted in the L1 (Dutch) and L2 (English) shows L1 word processing to rely more on automatic spelling-to-sound conversion than L2 word processing. A word naming task with a semantic categorization subtask showed more reliance on attention-demanding semantic processing when using the L2. A comparison to L1 English data shows this was not only due to the amount of language use or language dominance, but also to the difference in orthographic depth between Dutch and English. An important implication of this finding is that when the same task is used to test and compare different languages, one cannot straightforwardly assume the same cognitive sub processes are involved to an equal degree using the same task in different languages. PMID:29403404

Static and dynamic crystalline lens accommodation evaluated using quantitative 3-D OCT.

PubMed

Gambra, Enrique; Ortiz, Sergio; Perez-Merino, Pablo; Gora, Michalina; Wojtkowski, Maciej; Marcos, Susana

2013-01-01

Custom high-resolution high-speed anterior segment spectral domain Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) provided with automatic quantification and distortion correction algorithms was used to characterize three-dimensionally (3-D) the human crystalline lens in vivo in four subjects, for accommodative demands between 0 to 6 D in 1 D steps. Anterior and posterior lens radii of curvature decreased with accommodative demand at rates of 0.73 and 0.20 mm/D, resulting in an increase of the estimated optical power of the eye of 0.62 D per diopter of accommodative demand. Dynamic fluctuations in crystalline lens radii of curvature, anterior chamber depth and lens thickness were also estimated from dynamic 2-D OCT images (14 Hz), acquired during 5-s of steady fixation, for different accommodative demands. Estimates of the eye power from dynamical geometrical measurements revealed an increase of the fluctuations of the accommodative response from 0.07 D to 0.47 D between 0 and 6 D (0.044 D per D of accommodative demand). A sensitivity analysis showed that the fluctuations of accommodation were driven by dynamic changes in the lens surfaces, particularly in the posterior lens surface.

Static and dynamic crystalline lens accommodation evaluated using quantitative 3-D OCT

PubMed Central

Gambra, Enrique; Ortiz, Sergio; Perez-Merino, Pablo; Gora, Michalina; Wojtkowski, Maciej; Marcos, Susana

2013-01-01

Custom high-resolution high-speed anterior segment spectral domain Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) provided with automatic quantification and distortion correction algorithms was used to characterize three-dimensionally (3-D) the human crystalline lens in vivo in four subjects, for accommodative demands between 0 to 6 D in 1 D steps. Anterior and posterior lens radii of curvature decreased with accommodative demand at rates of 0.73 and 0.20 mm/D, resulting in an increase of the estimated optical power of the eye of 0.62 D per diopter of accommodative demand. Dynamic fluctuations in crystalline lens radii of curvature, anterior chamber depth and lens thickness were also estimated from dynamic 2-D OCT images (14 Hz), acquired during 5-s of steady fixation, for different accommodative demands. Estimates of the eye power from dynamical geometrical measurements revealed an increase of the fluctuations of the accommodative response from 0.07 D to 0.47 D between 0 and 6 D (0.044 D per D of accommodative demand). A sensitivity analysis showed that the fluctuations of accommodation were driven by dynamic changes in the lens surfaces, particularly in the posterior lens surface. PMID:24049680

Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect

PubMed Central

Shiraki, Hiroto; Ashina, Shuichi

2018-01-01

After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan’s NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers’ electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%–6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2–2.26 MtCO2 (−4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan’s electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the earthquake. PMID:29708988

Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect.

PubMed

Honjo, Keita; Shiraki, Hiroto; Ashina, Shuichi

2018-01-01

After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan's NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers' electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%-6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2-2.26 MtCO2 (-4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan's electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the earthquake.

Emigration dynamics in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Mahmood, R A

1995-01-01

This study of emigration dynamics opens by noting that emigration is one of the most dynamic economic and social elements in Bangladesh. The history of emigration from Bangladesh is sketched, and the level and trend of emigration is described for various destinations (especially the UK, the Middle East and North Africa, and Japan) and in terms of the socioeconomic background of migrants, channels of migration, occupations, the potential level of emigration, and applications for US Visas. The next section of the report presents the economic and demographic setting in terms of the gross national and domestic products, quality of life, the size and distribution of the population, the labor force, literacy, unemployment and underemployment, urbanization, internal migration, poverty, and income distribution. The discussion then centers on the sociopolitical setting and such factors as unmet basic human needs, the demand for expatriate workers, and emigration policy. It is concluded that the desperate economic situation in Bangladesh has combined with the demand for expatriate workers and the development of institutions to facilitate emigration. The result is increasing interest in emigration, which is fueled by mass communication highlighting the differences between the quality of life in Bangladesh and abroad.

Outlook of the world steel cycle based on the stock and flow dynamics.

PubMed

Hatayama, Hiroki; Daigo, Ichiro; Matsuno, Yasunari; Adachi, Yoshihiro

2010-08-15

We present a comprehensive analysis of steel use in the future compiled using dynamic material flow analysis (MFA). A dynamic MFA for 42 countries depicted the global in-use stock and flow up to the end of 2005. On the basis of the transition of steel stock for 2005, the growth of future steel stock was then estimated considering the economic growth for every country. Future steel demand was estimated using dynamic analysis under the new concept of "stocks drive flows". The significant results follow. World steel stock reached 12.7 billion t in 2005, and has doubled in the last 25 years. The world stock in 2005 mainly consisted of construction (60%) and vehicles (10%). Stock in these end uses will reach 55 billion t in 2050, driven by a 10-fold increase in Asia. Steel demand will reach 1.8 billion t in 2025, then slightly decrease, and rise again by replacement of buildings. The forecast of demand clearly represents the industrial shift; at first the increase is dominated by construction, and then, after 2025, demand for construction decreases and demand for vehicles increases instead. This study thus provides the dynamic mechanism of steel stock and flow toward the future, which contributes to the design of sustainable steel use.

Disaggregating residential water demand for improved forecasts and decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodard, G.; Brookshire, D.; Chermak, J.; Krause, K.; Roach, J.; Stewart, S.; Tidwell, V.

2003-04-01

Residential water demand is the product of population and per capita demand. Estimates of per capita demand often are based on econometric models of demand, usually based on time series data of demand aggregated at the water provider level. Various studies have examined the impact of such factors as water pricing, weather, and income, with many other factors and details of water demand remaining unclear. Impacts of water conservation programs often are estimated using simplistic engineering calculations. Partly as a result of this, policy discussions regarding water demand management often focus on water pricing, water conservation, and growth control. Projecting water demand is often a straight-forward, if fairly uncertain process of forecasting population and per capita demand rates. SAHRA researchers are developing improved forecasts of residential water demand by disaggregating demand to the level of individuals, households, and specific water uses. Research results based on high-resolution water meter loggers, household-level surveys, economic experiments and recent census data suggest that changes in wealth, household composition, and individual behavior may affect demand more than changes in population or the stock of landscape plants, water-using appliances and fixtures, generally considered the primary determinants of demand. Aging populations and lower fertility rates are dramatically reducing household size, thereby increasing the number of households and residences for a given population. Recent prosperity and low interest rates have raised home ownership rates to unprecented levels. These two trends are leading to increased per capita outdoor water demand. Conservation programs have succeeded in certain areas, such as promoting drought-tolerant native landscaping, but have failed in other areas, such as increasing irrigation efficiency or curbing swimming pool water usage. Individual behavior often is more important than the household's stock of water-using fixtures, and ranges from hedonism (installing pools and whirlpool tubs) to satisficing (adjusting irrigation timers only twice per year) to acting on deeply-held conservation ethics in ways that not only fail any benefit-cost test, but are discouraged, or even illegal (reuse of gray water and black water). Research findings are being captured in dynamic simulation models that integrate social and natural science to create tools to assist water resource managers in providing sustainable water supplies and improving residential water demand forecasts. These models feature simple, graphical user interfaces and output screens that provide decision makers with visual, easy-to-understand information at the basin level. The models reveal connections between various supply and demand components, and highlight direct impacts and feedback mechanisms associated with various policy options.

Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-02

Repeated Game with Incomplete Information, IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing. 20-MAR-16, Shanghai, China...in a game theoretic framework for the application of multi-seller dynamic pricing with unknown demand models. We formulated the problem as an...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning

Environmental factors and habitat use influence body condition of individuals in a species at risk, the grizzly bear.

PubMed

Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B; Janz, David M

2014-01-01

Metrics used to quantify the condition or physiological states of individuals provide proactive mechanisms for understanding population dynamics in the context of environmental factors. Our study examined how anthropogenic disturbance, habitat characteristics and hair cortisol concentrations interpreted as a sex-specific indicator of potential habitat net-energy demand affect the body condition of grizzly bears (n = 163) in a threatened population in Alberta, Canada. We quantified environmental variables by modelling spatial patterns of individual habitat use based on global positioning system telemetry data. After controlling for gender, age and capture effects, we assessed the influence of biological and environmental variables on body condition using linear mixed-effects models in an information theoretical approach. Our strongest model suggested that body condition was improved when patterns of habitat use included greater vegetation productivity, increased influence of forest harvest blocks and oil and gas well sites, and a higher percentage of regenerating and coniferous forest. However, body condition was negatively affected by habitat use in close proximity to roads and in areas where potential energetic demands were high. Poor body condition was also associated with increased selection of parks and protected areas and greater seasonal vegetation productivity. Adult females, females with cubs-of-year, juvenile females and juvenile males were in poorer body condition compared with adult males, suggesting that intra-specific competition and differences in habitat use based on gender and age may influence body condition dynamics. Habitat net-energy demand also tended to be higher in areas used by females which, combined with observed trends in body condition, could affect reproductive success in this threatened population. Our results highlight the importance of considering spatiotemporal variability in environmental factors and habitat use when assessing the body condition of individuals. Long-term and large-scale monitoring of the physiological state of individuals provides a more comprehensive approach to support management and conservation of species at risk.

Adam Smith's invisible hand is unstable: physics and dynamics reasoning applied to economic theorizing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2002-11-01

Neo-classical economic theory is based on the postulated, nonempiric notion of utility. Neo-classical economists assume that prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. The results are supposed to represent mathematically the stabilizing action of Adam Smith's invisible hand. In deterministic excess demand dynamics, however, a utility function generally does not exist mathematically due to nonintegrability. Price as a function of demand does not exist and all equilibria are unstable. Qualitatively, and empirically, the neo-classical prediction of price as a function of demand describes neither consumer nor trader demand. We also discuss five inconsistent definitions of equilibrium used in economics and finance, only one of which is correct, and then explain the fallacy in the economists’ notion of ‘temporary price equilibria’.

Exploring the Factor Structure of the Job Demands-Resources Measure With Patient Violence on Direct Care Workers in the Home Setting.

PubMed

Byon, Ha Do; Harrington, Donna; Storr, Carla L; Lipscomb, Jane

2017-08-01

Workplace violence research in health care settings using the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) framework is hindered by the lack of comprehensive examination of the factor structure of the JD-R measure when it includes patient violence. Is patient violence a component of job demands or its own factor as an occupational outcome? Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis were conducted using a sample of direct care workers in the home setting (n = 961). The overall 2-construct JD-R structure persisted. Patient violence was not identified as a separate factor from job demands; rather, two demand factors emerged: violence/emotional and workload/physical demands. Although the three-factor model fits the data, the two-factor model with patient violence being a component of job demands is a parsimonious and effective measurement framework.

Economic analysis of U.S. ethanol expansion issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhuri, Malika

The dependency of the U.S. economy on crude oil imported from politically unstable countries, escalating energy demand world wide, growing nationwide environmental consciousness, and the Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS) government mandates are some of the primary factors that have provided a favorable environment for the growth and development of the U.S. ethanol industry. The first essay derives decision rules for a discrete-time dynamic hedging model in a multiple commodity framework under expected utility maximization and basis risk. It compares hedging performance of three types of hedging models, namely constant hedging, time-varying static hedging model and the new dynamic hedging rule derived in this study. Findings show that natural gas futures contracts were effective instruments for hedging ethanol spot price risk before March, 2005, when ethanol futures trading was initiated on the CBOT. However, post-March, 2005, corn and ethanol futures contracts proved to be efficient hedging instruments. Results also indicate that ethanol producers may effectively decrease variance of cumulative cash flows by hedging using ethanol, natural gas and corn futures prices using the traditional techniques. The study concludes that using the new dynamic hedge model in a three period and two commodity set up, producers can effectively reduce variance of cumulative cash flow by 13.2% as compared to the 'no hedge' scenario. In my second essay, I use choice based, conjoint analysis methods to estimate consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for alternative transportation fuels in the U.S. In this study, I consider unleaded gasoline and ethanol, which may be derived from corn or three different sources of cellulosic biomass as alternative transportation fuels. Results suggest that age and household income are some of the socioeconomic variables that significantly influence consumer's choice behavior. Results indicate considerable consumer preference heterogeneity. Welfare effects are analyzed when consumers are faced with restricted choice sets. Results suggest that possible government mandates on the consumption of E-10 and E-85 diminish welfare of individuals belonging to the segment 'Conventional Gasoline Acceptor'. Similarly, individuals belonging to 'Ethanol Acceptor' segment experience welfare losses if corn grain ethanol is not available as an alternative transportation fuel. Ethanol is increasingly being used as a gasoline oxygenate and a volume extender in the refinery and blender industry in the U.S. This paper estimates refinery and blender factor demand and evaluates price responsiveness of inputs. The study also develops and tests hypotheses regarding existence of structural change in the industry's demand for inputs. It determines whether there is a common shift point and adjustment rate for structural change in all the refinery and blender inputs by using gradual switching multivariate regression techniques and maximum likelihood methods. Results suggest a structural change in factor demand for inputs in the industry that occurs at different points and rates. Results also suggest that the demand for inputs, except for capital and unfinished oil, has become more inelastic over time.

Studies on kinetics of water quality factors to establish water transparency model in Neijiang River, China.

PubMed

Li, Ronghui; Pan, Wei; Guo, Jinchuan; Pang, Yong; Wu, Jianqiang; Li, Yiping; Pan, Baozhu; Ji, Yong; Ding, Ling

2014-05-01

The basis for submerged plant restoration in surface water is to research the complicated dynamic mechanism of water transparency. In this paper, through the impact factor analysis of water transparency, the suspended sediment, dissolved organic matter, algae were determined as three main impactfactors for water transparency of Neijiang River in Eastern China. And the multiple regression equation of water transparency and sediment concentration, permanganate index, chlorophyll-a concentration was developed. Considering the complicated transport and transformation of suspended sediment, dissolved organic matter and algae, numerical model of them were developed respectively for simulating the dynamic process. Water transparency numerical model was finally developed by coupling the sediment, water quality, and algae model. These results showed that suspended sediment was a key factor influencing water transparency of Neijiang River, the influence of water quality indicated by chemical oxygen demand and algal concentration indicated by chlorophyll a were indeterminate when their concentrations were lower, the influence was more obvious when high concentrations are available, such three factors showed direct influence on water transparency.

Pricing the Services in Dynamic Environment: Agent Pricing Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žagar, Drago; Rupčić, Slavko; Rimac-Drlje, Snježana

New Internet applications and services as well as new user demands open many new issues concerning dynamic management of quality of service and price for received service, respectively. The main goals of Internet service providers are to maximize profit and maintain a negotiated quality of service. From the users' perspective the main goal is to maximize ratio of received QoS and costs of service. However, achieving these objectives could become very complex if we know that Internet service users might during the session become highly dynamic and proactive. This connotes changes in user profile or network provider/s profile caused by high level of user mobility or variable level of user demands. This paper proposes a new agent based pricing architecture for serving the highly dynamic customers in context of dynamic user/network environment. The proposed architecture comprises main aspects and basic parameters that will enable objective and transparent assessment of the costs for the service those Internet users receive while dynamically change QoS demands and cost profile.

Professional judgement and decision-making in adventure sports coaching: the role of interaction.

PubMed

Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

2016-01-01

This qualitative study presents the view that coaching practice places demands on the coach's adaptability and flexibility. These requirements for being adaptive and flexible are met through a careful process of professional judgement and decision-making based on context-appropriate bodies of knowledge. Adventure sports coaches were selected for study on the basis that adventure sports create a hyper-dynamic environment in which these features can be examined. Thematic analysis revealed that coaches were generally well informed and practised with respect to the technical aspects of their sporting disciplines. Less positively, however, they often relied on ad hoc contextualisation of generalised theories of coaching practice to respond to the hyper-dynamic environments encountered in adventure sports. We propose that coaching practice reflects the demands of the environment, individual learning needs of the students and the task at hand. Together, these factors outwardly resemble a constraints-led approach but, we suggest, actually reflect manipulation of these parameters from a cognitive rather than an ecological perspective. This process is facilitated by a refined judgement and decision-making process, sophisticated epistemology and an explicit interaction of coaching components.

Cooperative Strategy for Optimal Management of Smart Grids by Wavelet RNNs and Cloud Computing.

PubMed

Napoli, Christian; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Tina, Giuseppe Marco; Tramontana, Emiliano

2016-08-01

Advanced smart grids have several power sources that contribute with their own irregular dynamic to the power production, while load nodes have another dynamic. Several factors have to be considered when using the owned power sources for satisfying the demand, i.e., production rate, battery charge and status, variable cost of externally bought energy, and so on. The objective of this paper is to develop appropriate neural network architectures that automatically and continuously govern power production and dispatch, in order to maximize the overall benefit over a long time. Such a control will improve the fundamental work of a smart grid. For this, status data of several components have to be gathered, and then an estimate of future power production and demand is needed. Hence, the neural network-driven forecasts are apt in this paper for renewable nonprogrammable energy sources. Then, the produced energy as well as the stored one can be supplied to consumers inside a smart grid, by means of digital technology. Among the sought benefits, reduced costs and increasing reliability and transparency are paramount.

THz Dynamic Nuclear Polarization NMR

PubMed Central

Nanni, Emilio A.; Barnes, Alexander B.; Griffin, Robert G.; Temkin, Richard J.

2013-01-01

Dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP) increases the sensitivity of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy by using high frequency microwaves to transfer the polarization of the electrons to the nuclear spins. The enhancement in NMR sensitivity can amount to a factor of well above 100, enabling faster data acquisition and greatly improved NMR measurements. With the increasing magnetic fields (up to 23 T) used in NMR research, the required frequency for DNP falls into the THz band (140–600 GHz). Gyrotrons have been developed to meet the demanding specifications for DNP NMR, including power levels of tens of watts; frequency stability of a few megahertz; and power stability of 1% over runs that last for several days to weeks. Continuous gyrotron frequency tuning of over 1 GHz has also been demonstrated. The complete DNP NMR system must include a low loss transmission line; an optimized antenna; and a holder for efficient coupling of the THz radiation to the sample. This paper describes the DNP NMR process and illustrates the THz systems needed for this demanding spectroscopic application. THz DNP NMR is a rapidly developing, exciting area of THz science and technology. PMID:24639915

Future changes driving dietetics workforce supply and demand: future scan 2012-2022.

PubMed

Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

2012-03-01

The dietetics profession faces many workforce challenges and opportunities to ensure that registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) are at the forefront of health and nutrition. The profession must prepare for new public priorities, changes in population, and the restructuring of how people learn and work, as well as new advances in science and technology. In September 2010, the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force, in consultation with a panel of thought leaders, identified 10 change drivers that affect dietetics workforce supply and demand. This future scan report provides an overview of eight of these drivers. Two change drivers-health care reform and population risk factors/nutrition initiatives-are addressed in separate technical articles. A change matrix has been included at the end of this executive summary. The matrix contains a summary of each change driver and its expected impact and is designed to present the drivers in the context of a larger, dynamic system of change in the dietetics profession. The impact of any of these change drivers individually and collectively in a dynamic system is uncertain. The outcome of any change driver is also uncertain. The dietetics profession faces many choices within each change driver to meet the workforce challenges and seize the opportunities for leadership and growth. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficiency of a novel "Food to waste to food" system including anaerobic digestion of food waste and cultivation of vegetables on digestate in a bubble-insulated greenhouse.

PubMed

Stoknes, K; Scholwin, F; Krzesiński, W; Wojciechowska, E; Jasińska, A

2016-10-01

At urban locations certain challenges are concentrated: organic waste production, the need for waste treatment, energy demand, food demand, the need for circular economy and limited area for food production. Based on these factors the project presented here developed a novel technological approach for processing organic waste into new food. In this system, organic waste is converted into biogas and digester residue. The digester residue is being used successfully as a stand-alone fertilizer as well as main substrate component for vegetables and mushrooms for the first time - a "digeponics" system - in a closed new low energy greenhouse system with dynamic soap bubble insulation. Biogas production provides energy for the process and CO2 for the greenhouse. With very limited land use highly efficient resource recycling was established at pilot scale. In the research project it was proven that a low energy dynamic bubble insulated greenhouse can be operated continuously with 80% energy demand reduction compared to conventional greenhouses. Commercial crop yields were achieved based on fertilization with digestate; in individual cases they were even higher than the control yields of vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumber and lettuce among others. For the first time an efficient direct use of digestate as substrate and fertilizer has been developed and demonstrated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toward On-Demand Deep Brain Stimulation Using Online Parkinson's Disease Prediction Driven by Dynamic Detection.

PubMed

Mohammed, Ameer; Zamani, Majid; Bayford, Richard; Demosthenous, Andreas

2017-12-01

In Parkinson's disease (PD), on-demand deep brain stimulation is required so that stimulation is regulated to reduce side effects resulting from continuous stimulation and PD exacerbation due to untimely stimulation. Also, the progressive nature of PD necessitates the use of dynamic detection schemes that can track the nonlinearities in PD. This paper proposes the use of dynamic feature extraction and dynamic pattern classification to achieve dynamic PD detection taking into account the demand for high accuracy, low computation, and real-time detection. The dynamic feature extraction and dynamic pattern classification are selected by evaluating a subset of feature extraction, dimensionality reduction, and classification algorithms that have been used in brain-machine interfaces. A novel dimensionality reduction technique, the maximum ratio method (MRM) is proposed, which provides the most efficient performance. In terms of accuracy and complexity for hardware implementation, a combination having discrete wavelet transform for feature extraction, MRM for dimensionality reduction, and dynamic k-nearest neighbor for classification was chosen as the most efficient. It achieves a classification accuracy of 99.29%, an F1-score of 97.90%, and a choice probability of 99.86%.

Dynamic subcellular localization of a respiratory complex controls bacterial respiration

PubMed Central

Alberge, François; Espinosa, Leon; Seduk, Farida; Sylvi, Léa; Toci, René; Walburger, Anne; Magalon, Axel

2015-01-01

Respiration, an essential process for most organisms, has to optimally respond to changes in the metabolic demand or the environmental conditions. The branched character of their respiratory chains allows bacteria to do so by providing a great metabolic and regulatory flexibility. Here, we show that the native localization of the nitrate reductase, a major respiratory complex under anaerobiosis in Escherichia coli, is submitted to tight spatiotemporal regulation in response to metabolic conditions via a mechanism using the transmembrane proton gradient as a cue for polar localization. These dynamics are critical for controlling the activity of nitrate reductase, as the formation of polar assemblies potentiates the electron flux through the complex. Thus, dynamic subcellular localization emerges as a critical factor in the control of respiration in bacteria. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.05357.001 PMID:26077726

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation summary for DMA program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-04

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Dynamic Mobility Application (DMA) connected vehicle applications and Active Transportation and Demand management (ATDM)...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs : summary report for the Chicago testbed.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs : Evaluation Report for the Chicago Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation report for ATDM program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-16

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and the Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strategies. Specifically,...

Dynamic Price Vector Formation Model-Based Automatic Demand Response Strategy for PV-Assisted EV Charging Stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Qifang; Wang, Fei; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

A real-time price (RTP)-based automatic demand response (ADR) strategy for PV-assisted electric vehicle (EV) Charging Station (PVCS) without vehicle to grid is proposed. The charging process is modeled as a dynamic linear program instead of the normal day-ahead and real-time regulation strategy, to capture the advantages of both global and real-time optimization. Different from conventional price forecasting algorithms, a dynamic price vector formation model is proposed based on a clustering algorithm to form an RTP vector for a particular day. A dynamic feasible energy demand region (DFEDR) model considering grid voltage profiles is designed to calculate the lower and uppermore » bounds. A deduction method is proposed to deal with the unknown information of future intervals, such as the actual stochastic arrival and departure times of EVs, which make the DFEDR model suitable for global optimization. Finally, both the comparative cases articulate the advantages of the developed methods and the validity in reducing electricity costs, mitigating peak charging demand, and improving PV self-consumption of the proposed strategy are verified through simulation scenarios.« less

The Pathologist Workforce in the United States: II. An Interactive Modeling Tool for Analyzing Future Qualitative and Quantitative Staffing Demands for Services.

PubMed

Robboy, Stanley J; Gupta, Saurabh; Crawford, James M; Cohen, Michael B; Karcher, Donald S; Leonard, Debra G B; Magnani, Barbarajean; Novis, David A; Prystowsky, Michael B; Powell, Suzanne Z; Gross, David J; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen

2015-11-01

Pathologists are physicians who make diagnoses based on interpretation of tissue and cellular specimens (surgical/cytopathology, molecular/genomic pathology, autopsy), provide medical leadership and consultation for laboratory medicine, and are integral members of their institutions' interdisciplinary patient care teams. To develop a dynamic modeling tool to examine how individual factors and practice variables can forecast demand for pathologist services. Build and test a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates about current and new pathologist efforts. Most pathologists' efforts focus on anatomic (52%), laboratory (14%), and other direct services (8%) for individual patients. Population-focused services (12%) (eg, laboratory medical direction) and other professional responsibilities (14%) (eg, teaching, research, and hospital committees) consume the rest of their time. Modeling scenarios were used to assess the need to increase or decrease efforts related globally to the Affordable Care Act, and specifically, to genomic medicine, laboratory consolidation, laboratory medical direction, and new areas where pathologists' expertise can add value. Our modeling tool allows pathologists, educators, and policy experts to assess how various factors may affect demand for pathologists' services. These factors include an aging population, advances in biomedical technology, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based medical care systems. In the future, pathologists will likely have to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practicing medicine to accommodate new value-based delivery models.

Social and Structural Patterns of Drought-Related Water Conservation and Rebound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, Patricia; Ajami, Newsha

2017-12-01

Water use practices and conservation are the result of complex sociotechnical interactions of political, economic, hydroclimatic, and social factors. While the drivers of water demand have been extensively studied, they have traditionally been applied to models that assume stationary relationships between these various factors, and usually do not account for potential societal changes in response to increased scarcity awareness. For example, following a period of sustained low demand such as during a drought, communities often increase water use during a hydrologically wet period, a phenomenon known as "rebounding" water use. Previous experiences show the extent of this rebound is not a straightforward function of policy and efficiency improvements, but may also reflect short-term or long-lasting change in community behavior, which are not easily captured by models that assume stationarity. In this work, we develop a system dynamics model to represent water demand as a function of both structural and social factors. We apply this model to the analysis of three diverse water utilities in the San Francisco Bay Area between 1980 and 2017, identifying drought response trends and drivers over time. Our model is consistent with empirical patterns and historical context of water use in California, and provides important insights on the rebound phenomenon that can be extended to other locations. This comparative assessment indicates that policies, public outreach, and better data availability have played a key role in raising public awareness of water scarcity, especially with the raise of the internet era in recent years.

A Multiple-player-game Approach to Agricultural Water Use in Regions of Seasonal Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Z.

2013-12-01

In the wide distributed regions of seasonal drought, conflicts of water allocation between multiple stakeholders (which means water consumers and policy makers) are frequent and severe problems. These conflicts become extremely serious in the dry seasons, and are ultimately caused by an intensive disparity between the lack of natural resource and the great demand of social development. Meanwhile, these stakeholders are often both competitors and cooperators in water saving problems, because water is a type of public resource. Conflicts often occur due to lack of appropriate water allocation scheme. Among the many uses of water, the need of agricultural irrigation water is highly elastic, but this factor has not yet been made full use to free up water from agriculture use. The primary goal of this work is to design an optimal distribution scheme of water resource for dry seasons to maximize benefits from precious water resources, considering the high elasticity of agriculture water demand due to the dynamic of soil moisture affected by the uncertainty of precipitation and other factors like canopy interception. A dynamic programming model will be used to figure out an appropriate allocation of water resources among agricultural irrigation and other purposes like drinking water, industry, and hydropower, etc. In this dynamic programming model, we analytically quantify the dynamic of soil moisture in the agricultural fields by describing the interception with marked Poisson process and describing the rainfall depth with exponential distribution. Then, we figure out a water-saving irrigation scheme, which regulates the timetable and volumes of water in irrigation, in order to minimize irrigation water requirement under the premise of necessary crop yield (as a constraint condition). And then, in turn, we provide a scheme of water resource distribution/allocation among agriculture and other purposes, taking aim at maximizing benefits from precious water resources, or in other words, make best use of limited water resource.

[Adapting health services to the specific needs and utilization patterns of the new Spaniards. 2008 SESPAS Report].

PubMed

Ribera, Berta; Casal, Bruno; Cantarero, David; Pascual, Marta

2008-04-01

Because of the progressive increase in the number of immigrants and the uncertainty about the capacity of the Spanish health service to deal with the quantitative and qualitative increases in demand, the possibility of introducing changes to adapt our services to the new situation should be considered. Beginning with an analysis of the factors that influence health status and use of the health service, based on the National Health Survey (NHS), the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), we compare the health profiles and patterns of medical resources utilization between the national and foreign populations. The pattern of demand for health services in the immigrant population corresponds basically to the needs of a young population in good health. According to NHS data, resource utilization among immigrants can even be lower than that among the national population. Assessing the link between health status and demand for healthcare from a dynamic point of view, by identifying variations in patterns of health and patterns of demand for healthcare, is important to identify imbalances in resources and to establish an appropriate hierarchy of preventive and treatment priorities.

Case study: a health check-up for the corporate IT department.

PubMed

Clark, Frank; Kimmerly, William

2004-01-01

As advances such as the electronic charting, closed-loop medication safety, physician order entry, consumer portals, electronic collaboration, and wireless access become the norm, central IS organizations are finding it difficult to keep pace. This challenge is exacerbated by declining margins, severe cost pressures, increased regulation, and added public scrutiny. Is your centralized IS organization healthy enough to meet the challenges presented by today's complex, demanding, dynamic healthcare delivery environments? How do you know? What factors do you consider?

Experimental evaluation of four ground-motion scaling methods for dynamic response-history analysis of nonlinear structures

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Andrew P.; Kurama, Yahya C.; Kalkan, Erol; Taflanidis, Alexandros A.

2017-01-01

This paper experimentally evaluates four methods to scale earthquake ground-motions within an ensemble of records to minimize the statistical dispersion and maximize the accuracy in the dynamic peak roof drift demand and peak inter-story drift demand estimates from response-history analyses of nonlinear building structures. The scaling methods that are investigated are based on: (1) ASCE/SEI 7–10 guidelines; (2) spectral acceleration at the fundamental (first mode) period of the structure, Sa(T1); (3) maximum incremental velocity, MIV; and (4) modal pushover analysis. A total of 720 shake-table tests of four small-scale nonlinear building frame specimens with different static and dynamic characteristics are conducted. The peak displacement demands from full suites of 36 near-fault ground-motion records as well as from smaller “unbiased” and “biased” design subsets (bins) of ground-motions are included. Out of the four scaling methods, ground-motions scaled to the median MIV of the ensemble resulted in the smallest dispersion in the peak roof and inter-story drift demands. Scaling based on MIValso provided the most accurate median demands as compared with the “benchmark” demands for structures with greater nonlinearity; however, this accuracy was reduced for structures exhibiting reduced nonlinearity. The modal pushover-based scaling (MPS) procedure was the only method to conservatively overestimate the median drift demands.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Price impact on urban residential water demand: A dynamic panel data approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ArbuéS, Fernando; BarberáN, Ramón; Villanúa, Inmaculada

2004-11-01

In this paper, we formulate and estimate a model of residential water demand with the aim of evaluating the potential of pricing policies as a mechanism for managing residential water. The proposed econometric model offers a new perspective on urban water demand analysis by combining microlevel data with a dynamic panel data estimation procedure. The empirical application suggests that residential users are more responsive to a lagged average price specification. Another result of the estimated model is that price is a moderately effective tool in reducing residential water demand within the present range of prices, with the estimated values for income elasticity and "elasticity of consumption with respect to family size" reinforcing this conclusion.

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - Evaluation Report for the San Diego Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs : Evaluation Report for the San Diego Testbed : Draft Report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - evaluation summary for the San Diego testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

The dynamic model on the impact of biodiesel blend mandate (B5) on Malaysian palm oil domestic demand: A preliminary finding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Applanaidu, Shri-Dewi; Sapiri, Hasimah

2014-12-01

Over the last ten years, world biofuels production has increased dramatically. The biodiesel demand is driven by the increases in fossil fuel prices, government policy mandates, income from gross domestic product and population growth. In the European Union, biofuel consumption is mostly driven by blending mandates in both France and Germany. In the case of Malaysia, biodiesel has started to be exported since 2006. The B5 of 5% blend of palm oil based biodiesel into diesel in all government vehicles was implemented in February 2009 and it is expected to be implemented nationwide in the nearest time. How will the blend mandate will project growth in the domestic demand of palm oil in Malaysia? To analyze this issue, a system dynamics model was constructed to evaluate the impact of blend mandate implementation on the palm oil domestic demand influence. The base run of simulation analysis indicates that the trend of domestic demand will increase until 2030 in parallel with the implementation of 5 percent of biodiesel mandate. Finally, this study depicts that system dynamics is a useful tool to gain insight and to experiment with the impact of changes in blend mandate implementation on the future growth of Malaysian palm oil domestic demand sector.

Estimation of the behavior factor of existing RC-MRF buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vona, Marco; Mastroberti, Monica

2018-01-01

In recent years, several research groups have studied a new generation of analysis methods for seismic response assessment of existing buildings. Nevertheless, many important developments are still needed in order to define more reliable and effective assessment procedures. Moreover, regarding existing buildings, it should be highlighted that due to the low knowledge level, the linear elastic analysis is the only analysis method allowed. The same codes (such as NTC2008, EC8) consider the linear dynamic analysis with behavior factor as the reference method for the evaluation of seismic demand. This type of analysis is based on a linear-elastic structural model subject to a design spectrum, obtained by reducing the elastic spectrum through a behavior factor. The behavior factor (reduction factor or q factor in some codes) is used to reduce the elastic spectrum ordinate or the forces obtained from a linear analysis in order to take into account the non-linear structural capacities. The behavior factors should be defined based on several parameters that influence the seismic nonlinear capacity, such as mechanical materials characteristics, structural system, irregularity and design procedures. In practical applications, there is still an evident lack of detailed rules and accurate behavior factor values adequate for existing buildings. In this work, some investigations of the seismic capacity of the main existing RC-MRF building types have been carried out. In order to make a correct evaluation of the seismic force demand, actual behavior factor values coherent with force based seismic safety assessment procedure have been proposed and compared with the values reported in the Italian seismic code, NTC08.

Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Lévy-stable laws and superstatistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäfer, Benjamin; Beck, Christian; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Witthaut, Dirk; Timme, Marc

2018-02-01

Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyse principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a strong deviation from Gaussianity best described as Lévy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions, as well as a superstatistical approach that systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today's frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids.

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - calibration Report for Phoenix Testbed : Final Report. [supporting datasets - Phoenix Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-26

The datasets in this zip file are in support of FHWA-JPO-16-379, Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Program...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - San Mateo Testbed Analysis Plan [supporting datasets - San Mateo Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-26

This zip file contains files of data to support FHWA-JPO-16-370, Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Program...

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations

PubMed Central

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-01-01

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

PubMed

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-11-10

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

Crouch severity is a poor predictor of elevated oxygen consumption in cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Steele, Katherine M; Shuman, Benjamin R; Schwartz, Michael H

2017-07-26

Children with cerebral palsy (CP) expend more energy to walk compared to typically-developing peers. One of the most prevalent gait patterns among children with CP, crouch gait, is often singled out as especially exhausting. The dynamics of crouch gait increase external flexion moments and the demand on extensor muscles. This elevated demand is thought to dramatically increase energy expenditure. However, the impact of crouch severity on energy expenditure has not been investigated among children with CP. We evaluated oxygen consumption and gait kinematics for 573 children with bilateral CP. The average net nondimensional oxygen consumption during gait of the children with CP (0.18±0.06) was 2.9 times that of speed-matched typically-developing peers. Crouch severity was only modestly related to oxygen consumption, with measures of knee flexion angle during gait explaining only 5-20% of the variability in oxygen consumption. While knee moment and muscle activity were moderately to strongly correlated with crouch severity (r 2 =0.13-0.73), these variables were only weakly correlated with oxygen consumption (r 2 =0.02-0.04). Thus, although the dynamics of crouch gait increased muscle demand, these effects did not directly result in elevated energy expenditure. In clinical gait analysis, assumptions about an individual's energy expenditure should not be based upon kinematics or kinetics alone. Identifying patient-specific factors that contribute to increased energy expenditure may provide new pathways to improve gait for children with CP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

History-Based Response Threshold Model for Division of Labor in Multi-Agent Systems

PubMed Central

Lee, Wonki; Kim, DaeEun

2017-01-01

Dynamic task allocation is a necessity in a group of robots. Each member should decide its own task such that it is most commensurate with its current state in the overall system. In this work, the response threshold model is applied to a dynamic foraging task. Each robot employs a task switching function based on the local task demand obtained from the surrounding environment, and no communication occurs between the robots. Each individual member has a constant-sized task demand history that reflects the global demand. In addition, it has response threshold values for all of the tasks and manages the task switching process depending on the stimuli of the task demands. The robot then determines the task to be executed to regulate the overall division of labor. This task selection induces a specialized tendency for performing a specific task and regulates the division of labor. In particular, maintaining a history of the task demands is very effective for the dynamic foraging task. Various experiments are performed using a simulation with multiple robots, and the results show that the proposed algorithm is more effective as compared to the conventional model. PMID:28555031

Predicting U.S. food demand in the 20th century: a new look at system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorthy, Mukund; Cellier, Francois E.; LaFrance, Jeffrey T.

1998-08-01

The paper describes a new methodology for predicting the behavior of macroeconomic variables. The approach is based on System Dynamics and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. A four- layer pseudo-hierarchical model is proposed. The bottom layer makes predications about population dynamics, age distributions among the populace, as well as demographics. The second layer makes predications about the general state of the economy, including such variables as inflation and unemployment. The third layer makes predictions about the demand for certain goods or services, such as milk products, used cars, mobile telephones, or internet services. The fourth and top layer makes predictions about the supply of such goods and services, both in terms of their prices. Each layer can be influenced by control variables the values of which are only determined at higher levels. In this sense, the model is not strictly hierarchical. For example, the demand for goods at level three depends on the prices of these goods, which are only determined at level four. Yet, the prices are themselves influenced by the expected demand. The methodology is exemplified by means of a macroeconomic model that makes predictions about US food demand during the 20th century.

Dynamics between actin and the VE-cadherin/catenin complex

PubMed Central

Abu Taha, Abdallah; Schnittler, Hans-J

2014-01-01

Endothelial adherens junctions are critical for physiological and pathological processes such as differentiation, maintenance of entire monolayer integrity, and the remodeling. The endothelial-specific VE-cadherin/catenin complex provides the backbone of adherens junctions and acts in close interaction with actin filaments and actin/myosin-mediated contractility to fulfill the junction demands. The functional connection between the cadherin/catenin complex and actin filaments might be either directly through α-catenins, or indirectly e.g., via linker proteins such as vinculin, p120ctn, α-actinin, or EPLIN. However, both junction integrity and dynamic remodeling have to be contemporarily coordinated. The actin-related protein complex ARP2/3 and its activating molecules, such as N-WASP and WAVE, have been shown to regulate the lammellipodia-mediated formation of cell junctions in both epithelium and endothelium. Recent reports now demonstrate a novel aspect of the ARP2/3 complex and the nucleating-promoting factors in the maintenance of endothelial barrier function and junction remodeling of established endothelial cell junctions. Those mechanisms open novel possibilities; not only in fulfilling physiological demands but obtained information may be of critical importance in pathologies such as wound healing, angiogenesis, inflammation, and cell diapedesis. PMID:24621569

Feeding styles and child weight status among recent immigrant mother-child dyads.

PubMed

Tovar, Alison; Hennessy, Erin; Pirie, Alex; Must, Aviva; Gute, David M; Hyatt, Raymond R; Kamins, Christina Luongo; Hughes, Sheryl O; Boulos, Rebecca; Sliwa, Sarah; Galvão, Heloisa; Economos, Christina D

2012-05-29

Research has shown that parental feeding styles may influence children's food consumption, energy intake, and ultimately, weight status. We examine this relationship, among recent immigrants to the US. Given that immigrant parents and children are at greater risk for becoming overweight/obese with increased time in the US, identification of risk factors for weight gain is critical. Baseline data was collected on 383 mother-child dyads enrolled in Live Well, a community-based, participatory, randomized controlled lifestyle intervention to prevent weight gain in recent immigrant mothers. Socio-demographic information together with heights and weights were collected for both mother and child. Acculturation, behavioral data, and responses to the Caregiver's Feeding Styles Questionnaire (CFSQ) were also obtained from the mother. The children's average age was 6.2 ± 2.7 years, 58% male. Mothers had been in the country for an average of 6.0 ± 3.3 years, and are Brazilian (36%), Haitian (34%) and Latino (30%). Seventy-two percent of the mothers were overweight/obese, while 43% of the children were overweight/obese. Fifteen percent of mothers reported their feeding style as being high demanding/high responsive; 32% as being high demanding/low responsive; 34% as being low demanding/high responsive and 18% as being low demanding/low responsive. In bivariate analyses, feeding styles significantly differed by child BMIz-score, ethnic group, and mother's perceived stress. In multiple linear regression, a low demanding/high responsive feeding style was found to be positively associated (ß = 0.56) with a higher child weight as compared to high demanding/high responsive, controlling for known covariates (p = 0.01). Most mothers report having a low demanding/high responsive feeding style, which is associated with higher child weight status in this diverse immigrant population. This finding adds to the growing literature that suggests this type of feeding style may be a risk factor for childhood obesity. Further research is needed to help understand the larger socio-cultural context and its influence on feeding dynamics among immigrant families and families of lower incomes. How parents establish a certain feeding style in their home country compared to when they move to the US "obesogenic" environment, should also be explored.

The effect of taxation and regulation on cigarette smoking: Fresh evidence from Turkey.

PubMed

Cetin, Tamer

2017-12-01

Enacting Law No 5247 in May 2008, Turkey has initiated crucial anti-tobacco policies in the last decade. This paper aims to reveal on the effect of anti-tobacco policies such as excise taxes and regulations on cigarette smoking. To this aim, I empirically investigate the long-term dynamics of demand for cigarettes in Turkey through the OLS estimation strategy under various scenarios and models. Using monthly and quarterly data that cover the pre- and post- anti-smoking policy periods, I estimate demand elasticities and compare the pre- and post- taxation and regulation terms. The results presented in the paper confirm that taxation and regulation have affected the long-term dynamics of demand for cigarettes. The price and income elasticities of demand for cigarettes are significantly higher than the previous literature on Turkey. Demand elasticities have increased on average in the anti-tobacco policies period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

End-User Tools Towards AN Efficient Electricity Consumption: the Dynamic Smart Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamel, Fouad; Kist, Alexander A.

2010-06-01

Growing uncontrolled electrical demands have caused increased supply requirements. This causes volatile electrical markets and has detrimental unsustainable environmental impacts. The market is presently characterized by regular daily peak demand conditions associated with high electricity prices. A demand-side response system can limit peak demands to an acceptable level. The proposed scheme is based on energy demand and price information which is available online. An online server is used to communicate the information of electricity suppliers to users, who are able to use the information to manage and control their own demand. A configurable, intelligent switching system is used to control local loads during peak events and mange the loads at other times as necessary. The aim is to shift end user loads towards periods where energy demand and therefore also prices are at the lowest. As a result, this will flatten the load profile and avoiding load peeks which are costly for suppliers. The scheme is an endeavour towards achieving a dynamic smart grid demand-side-response environment using information-based communication and computer-controlled switching. Diffusing the scheme shall lead to improved electrical supply services and controlled energy consumption and prices.

Dynamic thermal analysis of a concentrated photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avrett, John T., II; Cain, Stephen C.; Pochet, Michael

2012-02-01

Concentrated photovoltaic (PV) technology represents a growing market in the field of terrestrial solar energy production. As the demand for renewable energy technologies increases, further importance is placed upon the modeling, design, and simulation of these systems. Given the U.S. Air Force cultural shift towards energy awareness and conservation, several concentrated PV systems have been installed on Air Force installations across the country. However, there has been a dearth of research within the Air Force devoted to understanding these systems in order to possibly improve the existing technologies. This research presents a new model for a simple concentrated PV system. This model accurately determines the steady state operating temperature as a function of the concentration factor for the optical part of the concentrated PV system, in order to calculate the optimum concentration that maximizes power output and efficiency. The dynamic thermal model derived is validated experimentally using a commercial polysilicon solar cell, and is shown to accurately predict the steady state temperature and ideal concentration factor.

Static and dynamic factors in an information-based multi-asset artificial stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponta, Linda; Pastore, Stefano; Cincotti, Silvano

2018-02-01

An information-based multi-asset artificial stock market characterized by different types of stocks and populated by heterogeneous agents is presented. In the market, agents trade risky assets in exchange for cash. Beside the amount of cash and of stocks owned, each agent is characterized by sentiments and agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are determined by sparsely connected networks. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price processes for each stock at the intersection of the demand and the supply curves. Single stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns whereas multivariate price process exhibits both static and dynamic stylized facts, i.e., the presence of static factors and common trends. Static factors are studied making reference to the cross-correlation of returns of different stocks. The common trends are investigated considering the variance-covariance matrix of prices. Results point out that the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix of returns shows the presence of sectors, similar to those observed on real empirical data. As regarding the dynamic factors, the variance-covariance matrix of prices point out a limited number of assets prices series that are independent integrated processes, in close agreement with the empirical evidence of asset price time series of real stock markets. These results remarks the crucial dependence of statistical properties of multi-assets stock market on the agents' interaction structure.

A cross-national study on the multidimensional characteristics of the five-item psychological demands scale of the Job Content Questionnaire.

PubMed

Choi, BongKyoo; Kawakami, Norito; Chang, SeiJin; Koh, SangBaek; Bjorner, Jakob; Punnett, Laura; Karasek, Robert

2008-01-01

The five-item psychological demands scale of the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ) has been assumed to be one-dimensional in practice. To examine whether the scale has sufficient internal consistency and external validity to be treated as a single scale, using the cross-national JCQ datasets from the United States, Korea, and Japan. Exploratory factor analyses with 22 JCQ items, confirmatory factor analyses with the five psychological demands items, and correlations analyses with mental health indexes. Generally, exploratory factor analyses displayed the predicted demand/control/support structure with three and four factors extracted. However, at more detailed levels of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, the demands scale showed clear evidence of multi-factor structure. The correlations of items and subscales of the demands scale with mental health indexes were similar to those of the full scale in the Korean and Japanese datasets, but not in the U.S. data. In 4 out of 16 sub-samples of the U.S. data, several significant correlations of the components of the demands scale with job dissatisfaction and life dissatisfaction were obscured by the full scale. The multidimensionality of the psychological demands scale should be considered in psychometric analysis and interpretation, occupational epidemiologic studies, and future scale extension.

Maintained benefits and improved survival of dynamic cardiomyoplasty by activity-rest stimulation: 5-year results of the Italian trial on "demand" dynamic cardiomyoplasty.

PubMed

Rigatelli, Gianluca; Barbiero, Mario; Rigatelli, Giorgio; Riccardi, Roberto; Cobelli, Franco; Cotogni, Angelo; Bandello, Attilio; Carraro, Ugo

2003-01-01

Latissimus dorsi (LD) muscular degeneration caused by continuous electrical stimulation has been the main cause of the poor results of dynamic cardiomyoplasty (DCMP) and its exclusion from the recent international guidelines on heart failure. To avoid full transformation of the LD and to improve results, a new stimulation protocol was developed; fewer impulses per day are delivered, providing the LD wrap with daily periods of rest ("demand" stimulation), based on a heart rate cut-off. The aim of this work is to report the results at 5 years of follow-up of the Italian Trial of Demand Dynamic Cardiomyoplasty and to discuss their impact on the destiny of this type of cardiac assistance. Twelve patients with dilated myocardiopathy (M/F=11/1, mean age 58.2+/-5.8 years, sinus rhythm/atrial fibrillation=11/1) were submitted during the period 1993-1996 to DCMP and at different intervals to demand protocol. Clinical, echocardiographic, mechanographic and cardiac invasive assessments were scheduled before initiating the demand protocol and during the follow-up at 0, 6 and every 12 months. The mean duration of follow-up was 40.2+/-13.8 months (range 18-64). There were no perioperative deaths. The demand stimulation protocol showed a decrease in 5 years in New York Health Association (NYHA) class (3.17+/-0.38-1.67+/-0.77, P=0.0001), an improvement of left ventricular ejection fraction (22.6+/-4.38-32.0+/-7.0, P<0.001), a 5-year actuarial survival of 83.3% (one patient was switched to heart transplantation programme due to clinical worsening and another one died of massive pulmonary embolism). Demand DCMP maintains over time LD muscular properties, enhances clinical benefits and improves survival of DCMP, thus reopening the debate whether this type of treatment should be considered in patients with end-stage heart failure.

Feasibility of solid oxide fuel cell dynamic hydrogen coproduction to meet building demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffer, Brendan; Brouwer, Jacob

2014-02-01

A dynamic internal reforming-solid oxide fuel cell system model is developed and used to simulate the coproduction of electricity and hydrogen while meeting the measured dynamic load of a typical southern California commercial building. The simulated direct internal reforming-solid oxide fuel cell (DIR-SOFC) system is controlled to become an electrical load following device that well follows the measured building load data (3-s resolution). The feasibility of the DIR-SOFC system to meet the dynamic building demand while co-producing hydrogen is demonstrated. The resulting thermal responses of the system to the electrical load dynamics as well as those dynamics associated with the filling of a hydrogen collection tank are investigated. The DIR-SOFC system model also allows for resolution of the fuel cell species and temperature distributions during these dynamics since thermal gradients are a concern for DIR-SOFC.

Optimal dynamic pricing and replenishment policy for perishable items with inventory-level-dependent demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Lihao; Zhang, Jianxiong; Tang, Wansheng

2016-04-01

An inventory system for perishable items with limited replenishment capacity is introduced in this paper. The demand rate depends on the stock quantity displayed in the store as well as the sales price. With the goal to realise profit maximisation, an optimisation problem is addressed to seek for the optimal joint dynamic pricing and replenishment policy which is obtained by solving the optimisation problem with Pontryagin's maximum principle. A joint mixed policy, in which the sales price is a static decision variable and the replenishment rate remains to be a dynamic decision variable, is presented to compare with the joint dynamic policy. Numerical results demonstrate the advantages of the joint dynamic one, and further show the effects of different system parameters on the optimal joint dynamic policy and the maximal total profit.

Musculoskeletal disorders among workers in plastic manufacturing plants.

PubMed

Fernandes, Rita de Cássia Pereira; Assunção, Ada Avila; Silvany Neto, Annibal Muniz; Carvalho, Fernando Martins

2010-03-01

Epidemiological studies have indicated an association between musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and physical work demands. Psychosocial work demands have also been identified as possible risk factors, but findings have been inconsistent. To evaluate factors associated with upper back, neck and upper limb MSD among workers from 14 plastic manufacturing companies located in the city of Salvador, Brazil. A cross-sectional study design was used to survey a stratified proportional random sample of 577 workers. Data were collected by questionnaire interviews. Factor analysis was carried out on 11 physical demands variables. Psychosocial work demands were measured by demand, control and social support questions. The role of socio-demographic factors, lifestyle and household tasks was also examined. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors related to upper back, neck and upper limb MSDs. Results from multiple logistic regression showed that distal upper limb MSDs were related to manual handling, work repetitiveness, psychosocial demands, job dissatisfaction, and gender. Neck, shoulder or upper back MSDs were related to manual handling, work repetitiveness, psychosocial demands, job dissatisfaction, and physical unfitness. Reducing the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders requires: improving the work environment, reducing biomechanical risk factors, and replanning work organization. Programs must also be aware of gender specificities related to MSDs.

Strategies to successfully recruit and engage clinical nurses as participants in qualitative clinical research.

PubMed

Coyne, Elisabeth; Grafton, Eileen; Reid, Alayne

2016-12-01

Research conducted in the clinical area promotes the delivery of evidence-based patient care. Involving nurses as participants in research is considered essential to link patient care with evidence-based interventions. However recruitment is influenced by nurses' competing demands and understanding engagement strategies may assist future research. This reflective analysis aimed to understand influencing factors and strategies that support successful recruitment nurses in clinical research. A reflective analysis of research notes and focus group data from research with oncology nurses was completed. This research identified that gaining support from key staff, understanding work constraints and developing a rapport with nurses is important. Establishing clear relevance and benefits of the research and being flexible with research requirements enabled nurses to participate in the research. Clear information and a willingness to accommodate the demands and dynamic nature of the environment, ensures ongoing support and engagement of nurses in the clinical setting as participants in research.

Analysing water use patterns for demand management: the case of the city of Masvingo, Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dube, Emmanuel; van der Zaag, Pieter

Water use in urban centres is dynamic, fluctuates, differs between high and low-income users, and tends to increase over time. Supply infrastructure can often hardly keep pace with increased water consumption. Given (a) the high cost of infrastructure development, (b) the recent emphasis on demand management, and (c) the social obligation to provide water services to the poor, urban water providers are faced with an important choice: whether to go the demand management route, or to continue constructing new infrastructure. This paper sheds light on some of the possibilities and constraints of both choices by providing a case study of the city of Masvingo in Zimbabwe. The paper analyses water use patterns in this city with a population of 70,000, located in a drought prone region of average rainfall of 600 mm/a. Water consumption has reached the limits of the water supply capacity. The paper first looks at the long-term water use pattern of the city as a whole and the factors that have caused the observed pattern using multiple linear regression. The paper then analyses the patterns of water use of rich and poor households, and attempts to assess the (im)possibilities of influencing these by means of an appropriate tariff structure. In projecting future demand, the paper then considers a number of interventions that could influence demand, which include leakage control, pressure management, awareness campaigns, free technical advice to water users, as well as a new tariff structure. It also discusses when new supply infrastructure should be available, depending on the various demand management measures taken.

Effects of dynamic-demand-control appliances on the power grid frequency.

PubMed

Tchuisseu, E B Tchawou; Gomila, D; Brunner, D; Colet, P

2017-08-01

Power grid frequency control is a demanding task requiring expensive idle power plants to adapt the supply to the fluctuating demand. An alternative approach is controlling the demand side in such a way that certain appliances modify their operation to adapt to the power availability. This is especially important to achieve a high penetration of renewable energy sources. A number of methods to manage the demand side have been proposed. In this work we focus on dynamic demand control (DDC), where smart appliances can delay their switchings depending on the frequency of the system. We introduce a simple model to study the effects of DDC on the frequency of the power grid. The model includes the power plant equations, a stochastic model for the demand that reproduces, adjusting a single parameter, the statistical properties of frequency fluctuations measured experimentally, and a generic DDC protocol. We find that DDC can reduce small and medium-size fluctuations but it can also increase the probability of observing large frequency peaks due to the necessity of recovering pending task. We also conclude that a deployment of DDC around 30-40% already allows a significant reduction of the fluctuations while keeping the number of pending tasks low.

Effects of dynamic-demand-control appliances on the power grid frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchuisseu, E. B. Tchawou; Gomila, D.; Brunner, D.; Colet, P.

2017-08-01

Power grid frequency control is a demanding task requiring expensive idle power plants to adapt the supply to the fluctuating demand. An alternative approach is controlling the demand side in such a way that certain appliances modify their operation to adapt to the power availability. This is especially important to achieve a high penetration of renewable energy sources. A number of methods to manage the demand side have been proposed. In this work we focus on dynamic demand control (DDC), where smart appliances can delay their switchings depending on the frequency of the system. We introduce a simple model to study the effects of DDC on the frequency of the power grid. The model includes the power plant equations, a stochastic model for the demand that reproduces, adjusting a single parameter, the statistical properties of frequency fluctuations measured experimentally, and a generic DDC protocol. We find that DDC can reduce small and medium-size fluctuations but it can also increase the probability of observing large frequency peaks due to the necessity of recovering pending task. We also conclude that a deployment of DDC around 30-40% already allows a significant reduction of the fluctuations while keeping the number of pending tasks low.

Economic effects of western Federal land-use restrictions on U.S. coal markets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, William Downing; Medlin, A.L.; Krohn, K.K.; Brookshire, D.S.; Bernknopf, R.L.

1991-01-01

Current regulations on land use in the Western United States affect access to surface minable coal resources. This U.S. Geological Survey study analyzes the long-term effects of Federal land-use restrictions on the national cost of meeting future coal demands. The analysis covers 45 years. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has determined the environmental, aesthetic, and economic values of western Federal coal lands and has set aside certain areas from surface coal mining to protect other valued land uses, including agricultural, environmental, and aesthetic uses. Although there are benefits to preserving natural areas and to developing areas for other land uses, these restrictions produce long-term national and regional costs that have not been estimated previously. The Dynamic Coal Allocation Model integrates coal supply (coal resource tonnage and coal quality by mining cost for 60 coal supply regions) with coal demand (in 243 regions) for the entire United States. The model makes it possible to evaluate the regional economic impacts of coal supply restrictions wherever they might occur in the national coal market. The main factors that the economic methodology considers are (1) coal mining costs, (2) coal transportation costs, (3) coal flue gas desulfurization costs, (4) coal demand, (5) regulations to control sulfur dioxide discharges, and (6) specific reductions in coal availability occurring as a result of land-use restrictions. The modeling system combines these economic factors with coal deposit quantity and quality information--which is derived from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Coal Resources Data System and the U.S. Department of Energy's Demonstrated Reserve Base--to determine a balance between supply and demand so that coal is delivered at minimum cost.

The Attentional Demand of Automobile Driving Revisited: Occlusion Distance as a Function of Task-Relevant Event Density in Realistic Driving Scenarios.

PubMed

Kujala, Tuomo; Mäkelä, Jakke; Kotilainen, Ilkka; Tokkonen, Timo

2016-02-01

We studied the utility of occlusion distance as a function of task-relevant event density in realistic traffic scenarios with self-controlled speed. The visual occlusion technique is an established method for assessing visual demands of driving. However, occlusion time is not a highly informative measure of environmental task-relevant event density in self-paced driving scenarios because it partials out the effects of changes in driving speed. Self-determined occlusion times and distances of 97 drivers with varying backgrounds were analyzed in driving scenarios simulating real Finnish suburban and highway traffic environments with self-determined vehicle speed. Occlusion distances varied systematically with the expected environmental demands of the manipulated driving scenarios whereas the distributions of occlusion times remained more static across the scenarios. Systematic individual differences in the preferred occlusion distances were observed. More experienced drivers achieved better lane-keeping accuracy than inexperienced drivers with similar occlusion distances; however, driving experience was unexpectedly not a major factor for the preferred occlusion distances. Occlusion distance seems to be an informative measure for assessing task-relevant event density in realistic traffic scenarios with self-controlled speed. Occlusion time measures the visual demand of driving as the task-relevant event rate in time intervals, whereas occlusion distance measures the experienced task-relevant event density in distance intervals. The findings can be utilized in context-aware distraction mitigation systems, human-automated vehicle interaction, road speed prediction and design, as well as in the testing of visual in-vehicle tasks for inappropriate in-vehicle glancing behaviors in any dynamic traffic scenario for which appropriate individual occlusion distances can be defined. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Identifying work ability promoting factors for home care aides and assistant nurses.

PubMed

Larsson, Agneta; Karlqvist, Lena; Westerberg, Mats; Gard, Gunvor

2012-01-11

In workplace health promotion, all potential resources needs to be taken into consideration, not only factors relating to the absence of injury and the physical health of the workers, but also psychological aspects. A dynamic balance between the resources of the individual employees and the demands of work is an important prerequisite. In the home care services, there is a noticeable trend towards increased psychosocial strain on employees at work. There are a high frequency of work-related musculoskeletal disorders and injuries, and a low prevalence of sustainable work ability. The aim of this research was to identify factors promoting work ability and self-efficacy in care aides and assistant nurses within home care services. This study is based on cross-sectional data collected in a municipality in northern Sweden. Care aides (n = 58) and assistant nurses (n = 79) replied to a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 46%). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were performed to assess the influence of several independent variables on self-efficacy (model 1) and work ability (model 2) for care aides and assistant nurses separately. Perceptions of personal safety, self-efficacy and musculoskeletal wellbeing contributed to work ability for assistant nurses (R2adj of 0.36, p < 0.001), while for care aides, the safety climate, seniority and age contributed to work ability (R2adj of 0.29, p = 0.001). Self-efficacy was associated with the safety climate and the physical demands of the job in both professions (R2adj of 0.24, p = 0.003 for care aides), and also by sex and age for the assistant nurses (R2adj of 0.31, p < 0.001). The intermediate factors contributed differently to work ability in the two professions. Self-efficacy, personal safety and musculoskeletal wellbeing were important for the assistant nurses, while the work ability of the care aides was associated with the safety climate, but also with the non-changeable factors age and seniority. All these factors are important to acknowledge in practice and in further research. Proactive workplace interventions need to focus on potentially modifiable factors such as self-efficacy, safety climate, physical job demands and musculoskeletal wellbeing.

A nonlinear dynamics approach for incorporating wind-speed patterns into wind-power project evaluation.

PubMed

Huffaker, Ray; Bittelli, Marco

2015-01-01

Wind-energy production may be expanded beyond regions with high-average wind speeds (such as the Midwest U.S.A.) to sites with lower-average speeds (such as the Southeast U.S.A.) by locating favorable regional matches between natural wind-speed and energy-demand patterns. A critical component of wind-power evaluation is to incorporate wind-speed dynamics reflecting documented diurnal and seasonal behavioral patterns. Conventional probabilistic approaches remove patterns from wind-speed data. These patterns must be restored synthetically before they can be matched with energy-demand patterns. How to accurately restore wind-speed patterns is a vexing problem spurring an expanding line of papers. We propose a paradigm shift in wind power evaluation that employs signal-detection and nonlinear-dynamics techniques to empirically diagnose whether synthetic pattern restoration can be avoided altogether. If the complex behavior of observed wind-speed records is due to nonlinear, low-dimensional, and deterministic system dynamics, then nonlinear dynamics techniques can reconstruct wind-speed dynamics from observed wind-speed data without recourse to conventional probabilistic approaches. In the first study of its kind, we test a nonlinear dynamics approach in an application to Sugarland Wind-the first utility-scale wind project proposed in Florida, USA. We find empirical evidence of a low-dimensional and nonlinear wind-speed attractor characterized by strong temporal patterns that match up well with regular daily and seasonal electricity demand patterns.

Final Report on DOE Project entitled Dynamic Optimized Advanced Scheduling of Bandwidth Demands for Large-Scale Science Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramamurthy, Byravamurthy

2014-05-05

In this project, developed scheduling frameworks for dynamic bandwidth demands for large-scale science applications. In particular, we developed scheduling algorithms for dynamic bandwidth demands in this project. Apart from theoretical approaches such as Integer Linear Programming, Tabu Search and Genetic Algorithm heuristics, we have utilized practical data from ESnet OSCARS project (from our DOE lab partners) to conduct realistic simulations of our approaches. We have disseminated our work through conference paper presentations and journal papers and a book chapter. In this project we addressed the problem of scheduling of lightpaths over optical wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) networks. We published severalmore » conference papers and journal papers on this topic. We also addressed the problems of joint allocation of computing, storage and networking resources in Grid/Cloud networks and proposed energy-efficient mechanisms for operatin optical WDM networks.« less

Why the long hours? Job demands and social exchange dynamics.

PubMed

Genin, Emilie; Haines, Victor Y; Pelletier, David; Rousseau, Vincent; Marchand, Alain

2016-11-22

This study investigates the determinants of long working hours from the perspectives of the demand-control model [Karasek, 1979] and social exchange theory [Blau, 1964; Goulder, 1960]. These two theoretical perspectives are tested to understand why individuals work longer (or shorter) hours. The hypotheses are tested with a representative sample of 1,604 employed Canadians. In line with Karasek's model, the results support that high job demands are positively associated with longer work hours. The social exchange perspective would predict a positive association between skill discretion and work hours. This hypothesis was supported for individuals with a higher education degree. Finally, the results support a positive association between active jobs and longer work hours. Our research suggests that job demands and social exchange dynamics need to be considered together in the explanation of longer (or shorter) work hours.

Dynamic modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems for off-grid applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasemeyer, Mark David

The volatile prices of fossil fuels and their contribution to global warming have caused many people to turn to renewable energy systems. Many developing communities are forced to use these systems as they are too far from electrical distribution. As a result, numerous software models have been developed to simulate hybrid renewable energy systems. However almost, if not all, implementations are static in design. A static design limits the ability of the model to account for changes over time. Dynamic modeling can be used to fill the gaps where other modeling techniques fall short. This modeling practice allows the user to account for the effects of technological and economic factors over time. These factors can include changes in energy demand, energy production, and income level. Dynamic modeling can be particularly useful for developing communities who are off-grid and developing at rapid rates. In this study, a dynamic model was used to evaluate a real world system. A non-governmental organization interested in improving their current infrastructure was selected. Five different scenarios were analyzed and compared in order to discover which factors the model is most sensitive to. In four of the scenarios, a new energy system was purchased in order to account for the opening of a restaurant that would be used as a source of local income generation. These scenarios were then compared to a base case in which a new system was not purchased, and the restaurant was not opened. Finally, the results were used to determine which variables had the greatest impact on the various outputs of the simulation.

An integrated and dynamic optimisation model for the multi-level emergency logistics network in anti-bioterrorism system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Zhao, Lindu

2012-08-01

Demand for emergency resources is usually uncertain and varies quickly in anti-bioterrorism system. Besides, emergency resources which had been allocated to the epidemic areas in the early rescue cycle will affect the demand later. In this article, an integrated and dynamic optimisation model with time-varying demand based on the epidemic diffusion rule is constructed. The heuristic algorithm coupled with the MATLAB mathematical programming solver is adopted to solve the optimisation model. In what follows, the application of the optimisation model as well as a short sensitivity analysis of the key parameters in the time-varying demand forecast model is presented. The results show that both the model and the solution algorithm are useful in practice, and both objectives of inventory level and emergency rescue cost can be controlled effectively. Thus, it can provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with emergency rescue problem with uncertain demand, and offers an excellent reference when issues pertain to bioterrorism.

Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

2002-01-01

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

Effect of Cognitive Demand on Functional Visual Field Performance in Senior Drivers with Glaucoma.

PubMed

Gangeddula, Viswa; Ranchet, Maud; Akinwuntan, Abiodun E; Bollinger, Kathryn; Devos, Hannes

2017-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the effect of cognitive demand on functional visual field performance in drivers with glaucoma. Method: This study included 20 drivers with open-angle glaucoma and 13 age- and sex-matched controls. Visual field performance was evaluated under different degrees of cognitive demand: a static visual field condition (C1), dynamic visual field condition (C2), and dynamic visual field condition with active driving (C3) using an interactive, desktop driving simulator. The number of correct responses (accuracy) and response times on the visual field task were compared between groups and between conditions using Kruskal-Wallis tests. General linear models were employed to compare cognitive workload, recorded in real-time through pupillometry, between groups and conditions. Results: Adding cognitive demand (C2 and C3) to the static visual field test (C1) adversely affected accuracy and response times, in both groups ( p < 0.05). However, drivers with glaucoma performed worse than did control drivers when the static condition changed to a dynamic condition [C2 vs. C1 accuracy; glaucoma: median difference (Q1-Q3) 3 (2-6.50) vs. 2 (0.50-2.50); p = 0.05] and to a dynamic condition with active driving [C3 vs. C1 accuracy; glaucoma: 2 (2-6) vs. 1 (0.50-2); p = 0.02]. Overall, drivers with glaucoma exhibited greater cognitive workload than controls ( p = 0.02). Conclusion: Cognitive demand disproportionately affects functional visual field performance in drivers with glaucoma. Our results may inform the development of a performance-based visual field test for drivers with glaucoma.

The relationship investigation between factors affecting demand for broadband and the level of satisfaction among broadband customers in the South East Coast of Sabah, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, S. H. A.; Hamid, F. A.; Kiram, J. J.; Sulaiman, J.

2017-09-01

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between factors that affecting the demand for broadband and the level of satisfaction. Previous researchers have found that the adoption of broadband is greatly influenced by many factors. Thus, in this study, a self-administered questionnaire was developed to obtain the factors affecting demand for broadband among broadband customers as well as their level of satisfaction. Pearson correlation, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and t-test were used for statistical interpretation of the relationship. This study shows that there are better relationships between several factors over demand for broadband and satisfaction level.

A comprehensive study on the influence of strength and stiffness eccentricities to the on-plan rotation of asymmetric structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Azida; Majid, Taksiah A.; Fadzli, M. N.; Faisal, Ade; Noor, Suhaila M.

2017-10-01

All buildings are subjected to some degree of torsion which in turn changes the member torsional demands from that of translation only. Torsional effects on buildings subjected to earthquakes are not found directly in structural analysis unless full three-dimensional inelastic dynamic time history analysis is conducted. Since design is often conducted using two-dimensional analysis, these effects are not directly considered. There is currently an understanding on how different factors may influence torsion, however, the degree to which these factors influence torsion is relatively unknown. Slab rotation effect is considered a major response parameter to represent the severity of the torsional response of eccentric systems; hence, it is considered in this study. The centre of strength (CR) and centre of stiffness (CS) are the two main factors under considerations. A comprehensive analysis on eighty different CR and CS conditions are applied to a three-dimensional, asymmetric building and their influences to slab rotation are observed. The CR/CS conditions are applied by varying strength eccentricities (er) and stiffness eccentricities (es) using two condition models. Then, earthquake ground motions are applied in z-direction under elastic and inelastic conditions. The results interpreted using a simple approach shows important slab rotation behaviour that forms interesting findings from this study. The slab rotation demand is found to reduce as strength eccentricity moves away from the Centre of Mass (CoM) but is independent of the stiffness eccentricity. The study also confirms finding of previous works which states that stiffness eccentricity plays a minor role when assessing the torsional behaviour of a ductile systems. Results from inelastic analysis shows slab rotation demand increases as strength eccentricity is closer to the CoM but it remains constant for elastic analysis.

Model of annual plants dynamics with facilitation and competition.

PubMed

Droz, Michel; Pękalski, Andrzej

2013-10-21

An individual-based model describing the dynamics of one type of annual plants is presented. We use Monte Carlo simulations where each plant has its own history and the interactions among plants are between nearest neighbours. The character of the interaction (positive or negative) depends on local conditions. The plants compete for two external resources-water and light. The amount of water and/or light a plant receives depends on the external factor but also on local arrangement. Survival, growth and seed production of plants are determined by how well their demands for the resources are met. The survival and seeds production tests have a probabilistic character, which makes the dynamics more realistic than by using a deterministic approach. There is a non-linear coupling between the external supplies. Water evaporates from the soil at a rate depending on constant evaporation rate, local conditions and the amount of light. We examine the dynamics of the plant population along two environmental gradients, allowing also for surplus of water and/or light. We show that the largest number of plants is when the demands for both resources are equal to the supplies. We estimate also the role of evaporation and we find that it depends on the situation. It could be negative, but sometimes it has a positive character. We show that the link between the type of interaction (positive or negative) and external conditions has a complex character. In general in favourable environment plants have a stronger tendency for competitive interactions, leading to mostly isolated plants. When the conditions are getting more difficult, cooperation becomes the dominant type of interactions and the plants grow in clusters. The type of plants-sun-loving or shade tolerating, plays also an important role. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Dynamics of Supply and Demand Chain of English-Medium Schools in Bangladesh

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mousumi, Manjuma Akhtar; Kusakabe, Tatsuya

2017-01-01

This research concerns English-medium schools (EMSs), which are emerging as a popular new educational sector in Bangladesh. Because these schools have gained immense popularity, we seek to identify how these schools respond to parental demand and retain their clientele. In addition to English language demand, our findings reveal a symmetrical…

Modeling the demand-price relations in a high-frequency foreign exchange market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Anatoly B.

1999-09-01

A stochastic nonlinear dynamics model is introduced in terms of observable variables (price and excess demand assumed to be proportional to the number of buyers) to describe a high-frequency foreign exchange market. It is shown how the fundamentalist and chartist patterns of the trader behavior affect the correlation between excess demand and exchange rates.

Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics

PubMed Central

Rowcliffe, M.; Cowlishaw, G.; Alexander, J. S.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Brenya, A.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

2016-01-01

The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management. PMID:27632169

Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics.

PubMed

McNamara, J; Rowcliffe, M; Cowlishaw, G; Alexander, J S; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y; Brenya, A; Milner-Gulland, E J

2016-01-01

The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management.

Mechanics of Flapping Flight: Analytical Formulations of Unsteady Aerodynamics, Kinematic Optimization, Flight Dynamics, and Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taneja, Jayant Kumar

Electricity is an indispensable commodity to modern society, yet it is delivered via a grid architecture that remains largely unchanged over the past century. A host of factors are conspiring to topple this dated yet venerated design: developments in renewable electricity generation technology, policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and advances in information technology for managing energy systems. Modern electric grids are emerging as complex distributed systems in which a portfolio of power generation resources, often incorporating fluctuating renewable resources such as wind and solar, must be managed dynamically to meet uncontrolled, time-varying demand. Uncertainty in both supply and demand makes control of modern electric grids fundamentally more challenging, and growing portfolios of renewables exacerbate the challenge. We study three electricity grids: the state of California, the province of Ontario, and the country of Germany. To understand the effects of increasing renewables, we develop a methodology to scale renewables penetration. Analyzing these grids yields key insights about rigid limits to renewables penetration and their implications in meeting long-term emissions targets. We argue that to achieve deep penetration of renewables, the operational model of the grid must be inverted, changing the paradigm from load-following supplies to supply-following loads. To alleviate the challenge of supply-demand matching on deeply renewable grids, we first examine well-known techniques, including altering management of existing supply resources, employing utility-scale energy storage, targeting energy efficiency improvements, and exercising basic demand-side management. Then, we create several instantiations of supply-following loads -- including refrigerators, heating and cooling systems, and laptop computers -- by employing a combination of sensor networks, advanced control techniques, and enhanced energy storage. We examine the capacity of each load for supply-following and study the behaviors of populations of these loads, assessing their potential at various levels of deployment throughout the California electricity grid. Using combinations of supply-following strategies, we can reduce peak natural gas generation by 19% on a model of the California grid with 60% renewables. We then assess remaining variability on this deeply renewable grid incorporating supply-following loads, characterizing additional capabilities needed to ensure supply-demand matching in future sustainable electricity grids.

[Burnout and psychosocial risk factors in the career of flight attendants: Descriptive study of a population of Lebanese flight attendants].

PubMed

Richa, N; Zreik, H; Richa, S

2016-04-01

The aim of our study was to investigate the influence of demographic factors (gender and age), work related factors (the position and years of practice) and psychosocial risk factors (cognitive demands, demands to hide emotions, work-family conflict, offensive behaviors…) on the development of burnout among flight attendants, and the nature of psychosocial factors to which they are exposed. The sample was divided into two groups: 67 flight attendants and 67 persons in various jobs. Our sampling units were informed and consented to fill in two questionnaires: the Copenhagen burnout inventory (CBI) and the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II). The burnout syndrome affected both groups equally. It affected equally the women as well as men, whatever their age categories and their years of experience. The flight attendants occupying an intermediate position in the hierarchy had the highest score on the burnout syndrome. The psychosocial factors significantly found in flight attendants compared to the control group were: demands for hiding emotions, quantitative demands, emotional demands, temporal demands, lack of influence at work, of rewards, of possibility for development and variation of work, poor quality of leadership, exposure to sexual harassment, lack of social support from supervisors, colleagues, social community at work and work-family conflict. Four of them correlated positively with the development of burnout: quantitative demands, temporal demands, emotional demands and work-family conflict. Their expected work volume is very high (quantitative demands). They have to perform their tasks quickly in a limited time without forgetting the technical constraints (temporal demands). They have to work with an average of three hundred passengers besides colleagues and subordinates, which requires diligent control of the emotions promoted by the airline code of conduct based on repression of emotions (emotional demands). These demands affect the workers once they find themselves in their family environment and can have a negative effect on their private life (work-family conflict). However, the predictability seems to allow them to be aware of decisions and changes and protect them against burnout. The profession of flight attendants appears to be characterized by some psychosocial risk factors, some of which are positively correlated with burnout. Improved working conditions can prevent these risks and protect these employees from burnout. Copyright © 2015 L’Encéphale, Paris. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Neonatal Risk Factors for Treatment-Demanding Retinopathy of Prematurity: A Danish National Study.

PubMed

Slidsborg, Carina; Jensen, Aksel; Forman, Julie Lyng; Rasmussen, Steen; Bangsgaard, Regitze; Fledelius, Hans Callø; Greisen, Gorm; la Cour, Morten

2016-04-01

One goal of the study was to identify "new" statistically independent risk factors for treatment-demanding retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Another goal was to evaluate whether any new risk factors could explain the increase in the incidence of treatment-demanding ROP over time in Denmark. A retrospective, register-based cohort study. The study included premature infants (n = 6490) born in Denmark from 1997 to 2008. The study sample and the 31 candidate risk factors were identified in 3 national registers. Data were linked through a unique civil registration number. Each of the 31 candidate risk factors were evaluated in univariate analyses, while adjusted for known risk factors (i.e., gestational age [GA] at delivery, small for gestational age [SGA], multiple births, and male sex). Significant outcomes were analyzed thereafter in a backward selection multiple logistic regression model. Treatment-demanding ROP and its associations to candidate risk factors. Mechanical ventilation (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.99-4.08; P < 0.01) and blood transfusion (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.20-3.14; P = 0.01) were the only new statistically independent risk factors, in addition to GA at delivery, SGA, multiple births, and male sex. Modification in these prognostic factors for ROP did not cause an increase in treatment-demanding ROP. In a large study population, blood transfusion and mechanical ventilation were the only new statistically independent risk factors to predict the development of treatment-demanding ROP. Modification in the neonatal treatment with mechanical ventilation or blood transfusion did not cause the observed increase in the incidence of preterm infants with treatment-demanding ROP during a recent birth period (2003-2008). Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A genetic algorithm for dynamic inbound ordering and outbound dispatching problem with delivery time windows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byung Soo; Lee, Woon-Seek; Koh, Shiegheun

2012-07-01

This article considers an inbound ordering and outbound dispatching problem for a single product in a third-party warehouse, where the demands are dynamic over a discrete and finite time horizon, and moreover, each demand has a time window in which it must be satisfied. Replenishing orders are shipped in containers and the freight cost is proportional to the number of containers used. The problem is classified into two cases, i.e. non-split demand case and split demand case, and a mathematical model for each case is presented. An in-depth analysis of the models shows that they are very complicated and difficult to find optimal solutions as the problem size becomes large. Therefore, genetic algorithm (GA) based heuristic approaches are designed to solve the problems in a reasonable time. To validate and evaluate the algorithms, finally, some computational experiments are conducted.

Partial Overhaul and Initial Parallel Optimization of KINETICS, a Coupled Dynamics and Chemistry Atmosphere Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Howard; Willacy, Karen; Allen, Mark

2012-01-01

KINETICS is a coupled dynamics and chemistry atmosphere model that is data intensive and computationally demanding. The potential performance gain from using a supercomputer motivates the adaptation from a serial version to a parallelized one. Although the initial parallelization had been done, bottlenecks caused by an abundance of communication calls between processors led to an unfavorable drop in performance. Before starting on the parallel optimization process, a partial overhaul was required because a large emphasis was placed on streamlining the code for user convenience and revising the program to accommodate the new supercomputers at Caltech and JPL. After the first round of optimizations, the partial runtime was reduced by a factor of 23; however, performance gains are dependent on the size of the data, the number of processors requested, and the computer used.

Feeding styles and child weight status among recent immigrant mother-child dyads

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Research has shown that parental feeding styles may influence children’s food consumption, energy intake, and ultimately, weight status. We examine this relationship, among recent immigrants to the US. Given that immigrant parents and children are at greater risk for becoming overweight/obese with increased time in the US, identification of risk factors for weight gain is critical. Methods Baseline data was collected on 383 mother-child dyads enrolled in Live Well, a community-based, participatory, randomized controlled lifestyle intervention to prevent weight gain in recent immigrant mothers. Socio-demographic information together with heights and weights were collected for both mother and child. Acculturation, behavioral data, and responses to the Caregiver’s Feeding Styles Questionnaire (CFSQ) were also obtained from the mother. Results The children’s average age was 6.2 ± 2.7 years, 58% male. Mothers had been in the country for an average of 6.0 ± 3.3 years, and are Brazilian (36%), Haitian (34%) and Latino (30%). Seventy-two percent of the mothers were overweight/obese, while 43% of the children were overweight/obese. Fifteen percent of mothers reported their feeding style as being high demanding/high responsive; 32% as being high demanding/low responsive; 34% as being low demanding/high responsive and 18% as being low demanding/low responsive. In bivariate analyses, feeding styles significantly differed by child BMIz-score, ethnic group, and mother’s perceived stress. In multiple linear regression, a low demanding/high responsive feeding style was found to be positively associated (ß = 0.56) with a higher child weight as compared to high demanding/high responsive, controlling for known covariates (p = 0.01). Conclusions Most mothers report having a low demanding/high responsive feeding style, which is associated with higher child weight status in this diverse immigrant population. This finding adds to the growing literature that suggests this type of feeding style may be a risk factor for childhood obesity. Further research is needed to help understand the larger socio-cultural context and its influence on feeding dynamics among immigrant families and families of lower incomes. How parents establish a certain feeding style in their home country compared to when they move to the US “obesogenic” environment, should also be explored. PMID:22642962

A Nonlinear Dynamics Approach for Incorporating Wind-Speed Patterns into Wind-Power Project Evaluation

PubMed Central

Huffaker, Ray; Bittelli, Marco

2015-01-01

Wind-energy production may be expanded beyond regions with high-average wind speeds (such as the Midwest U.S.A.) to sites with lower-average speeds (such as the Southeast U.S.A.) by locating favorable regional matches between natural wind-speed and energy-demand patterns. A critical component of wind-power evaluation is to incorporate wind-speed dynamics reflecting documented diurnal and seasonal behavioral patterns. Conventional probabilistic approaches remove patterns from wind-speed data. These patterns must be restored synthetically before they can be matched with energy-demand patterns. How to accurately restore wind-speed patterns is a vexing problem spurring an expanding line of papers. We propose a paradigm shift in wind power evaluation that employs signal-detection and nonlinear-dynamics techniques to empirically diagnose whether synthetic pattern restoration can be avoided altogether. If the complex behavior of observed wind-speed records is due to nonlinear, low-dimensional, and deterministic system dynamics, then nonlinear dynamics techniques can reconstruct wind-speed dynamics from observed wind-speed data without recourse to conventional probabilistic approaches. In the first study of its kind, we test a nonlinear dynamics approach in an application to Sugarland Wind—the first utility-scale wind project proposed in Florida, USA. We find empirical evidence of a low-dimensional and nonlinear wind-speed attractor characterized by strong temporal patterns that match up well with regular daily and seasonal electricity demand patterns. PMID:25617767

Effective connectivity within the frontoparietal control network differentiates cognitive control and working memory.

PubMed

Harding, Ian H; Yücel, Murat; Harrison, Ben J; Pantelis, Christos; Breakspear, Michael

2015-02-01

Cognitive control and working memory rely upon a common fronto-parietal network that includes the inferior frontal junction (IFJ), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), pre-supplementary motor area/dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (pSMA/dACC), and intraparietal sulcus (IPS). This network is able to flexibly adapt its function in response to changing behavioral goals, mediating a wide range of cognitive demands. Here we apply dynamic causal modeling to functional magnetic resonance imaging data to characterize task-related alterations in the strength of network interactions across distinct cognitive processes. Evidence in favor of task-related connectivity dynamics was accrued across a very large space of possible network structures. Cognitive control and working memory demands were manipulated using a factorial combination of the multi-source interference task and a verbal 2-back working memory task, respectively. Both were found to alter the sensitivity of the IFJ to perceptual information, and to increase IFJ-to-pSMA/dACC connectivity. In contrast, increased connectivity from the pSMA/dACC to the IPS, as well as from the dlPFC to the IFJ, was uniquely driven by cognitive control demands; a task-induced negative influence of the dlPFC on the pSMA/dACC was specific to working memory demands. These results reflect a system of both shared and unique context-dependent dynamics within the fronto-parietal network. Mechanisms supporting cognitive engagement, response selection, and action evaluation may be shared across cognitive domains, while dynamic updating of task and context representations within this network are potentially specific to changing demands on cognitive control. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of Cognitive Demand on Functional Visual Field Performance in Senior Drivers with Glaucoma

PubMed Central

Gangeddula, Viswa; Ranchet, Maud; Akinwuntan, Abiodun E.; Bollinger, Kathryn; Devos, Hannes

2017-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the effect of cognitive demand on functional visual field performance in drivers with glaucoma. Method: This study included 20 drivers with open-angle glaucoma and 13 age- and sex-matched controls. Visual field performance was evaluated under different degrees of cognitive demand: a static visual field condition (C1), dynamic visual field condition (C2), and dynamic visual field condition with active driving (C3) using an interactive, desktop driving simulator. The number of correct responses (accuracy) and response times on the visual field task were compared between groups and between conditions using Kruskal–Wallis tests. General linear models were employed to compare cognitive workload, recorded in real-time through pupillometry, between groups and conditions. Results: Adding cognitive demand (C2 and C3) to the static visual field test (C1) adversely affected accuracy and response times, in both groups (p < 0.05). However, drivers with glaucoma performed worse than did control drivers when the static condition changed to a dynamic condition [C2 vs. C1 accuracy; glaucoma: median difference (Q1–Q3) 3 (2–6.50) vs. controls: 2 (0.50–2.50); p = 0.05] and to a dynamic condition with active driving [C3 vs. C1 accuracy; glaucoma: 2 (2–6) vs. controls: 1 (0.50–2); p = 0.02]. Overall, drivers with glaucoma exhibited greater cognitive workload than controls (p = 0.02). Conclusion: Cognitive demand disproportionately affects functional visual field performance in drivers with glaucoma. Our results may inform the development of a performance-based visual field test for drivers with glaucoma. PMID:28912712

Task Decomposition Model for Dispatchers in Dynamic Scheduling of Demand Responsive Transit Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-06-01

Since the passage of ADA, the demand for paratransit service is steadily increasing. Paratransit companies are relying on computer automation to streamline dispatch operations, increase productivity and reduce operator stress and error. Little resear...

Control of dispatch dynamics for lowering the cost of distributed generation in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, Robert Joseph

Distributed generation can provide many benefits over traditional central generation such as increased reliability and efficiency while reducing emissions. Despite these potential benefits, distributed generation is generally not purchased unless it reduces energy costs. Economic dispatch strategies can be designed such that distributed generation technologies reduce overall facility energy costs. In this thesis, a microturbine generator is dispatched using different economic control strategies, reducing the cost of energy to the facility. Several industrial and commercial facilities are simulated using acquired electrical, heating, and cooling load data. Industrial and commercial utility rate structures are modeled after Southern California Edison and Southern California Gas Company tariffs and used to find energy costs for the simulated buildings and corresponding microturbine dispatch. Using these control strategies, building models, and utility rate models, a parametric study examining various generator characteristics is performed. An economic assessment of the distributed generation is then performed for both the microturbine generator and parametric study. Without the ability to export electricity to the grid, the economic value of distributed generation is limited to reducing the individual costs that make up the cost of energy for a building. Any economic dispatch strategy must be built to reduce these individual costs. While the ability of distributed generation to reduce cost depends of factors such as electrical efficiency and operations and maintenance cost, the building energy demand being serviced has a strong effect on cost reduction. Buildings with low load factors can accept distributed generation with higher operating costs (low electrical efficiency and/or high operations and maintenance cost) due to the value of demand reduction. As load factor increases, lower operating cost generators are desired due to a larger portion of the building load being met in an effort to reduce demand. In addition, buildings with large thermal demand have access to the least expensive natural gas, lowering the cost of operating distributed generation. Recovery of exhaust heat from DG reduces cost only if the buildings thermal demand coincides with the electrical demand. Capacity limits exist where annual savings from operation of distributed generation decrease if further generation is installed. For low operating cost generators, the approximate limit is the average building load. This limit decreases as operating costs increase. In addition, a high capital cost of distributed generation can be accepted if generator operating costs are low. As generator operating costs increase, capital cost must decrease if a positive economic performance is desired.

Group dynamics challenges: Insights from Biosphere 2 experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Mark; Gray, Kathelin; Allen, John P.

2015-07-01

Successfully managing group dynamics of small, physically isolated groups is vital for long duration space exploration/habitation and for terrestrial CELSS (Controlled Environmental Life Support System) facilities with human participants. Biosphere 2 had important differences and shares some key commonalities with both Antarctic and space environments. There were a multitude of stress factors during the first two year closure experiment as well as mitigating factors. A helpful tool used at Biosphere 2 was the work of W.R. Bion who identified two competing modalities of behavior in small groups. Task-oriented groups are governed by conscious acceptance of goals, reality-thinking in relation to time and resources, and intelligent management of challenges. The opposing unconscious mode, the "basic-assumption" ("group animal") group, manifests through Dependency/Kill the Leader, Fight/Flight and Pairing. These unconscious dynamics undermine and can defeat the task group's goal. The biospherians experienced some dynamics seen in other isolated teams: factions developing reflecting personal chemistry and disagreements on overall mission procedures. These conflicts were exacerbated by external power struggles which enlisted support of those inside. Nevertheless, the crew evolved a coherent, creative life style to deal with some of the deprivations of isolation. The experience of the first two year closure of Biosphere 2 vividly illustrates both vicissitudes and management of group dynamics. The crew overrode inevitable frictions to creatively manage both operational and research demands and opportunities of the facility, thus staying 'on task' in Bion's group dynamics terminology. The understanding that Biosphere 2 was their life support system may also have helped the mission to succeed. Insights from the Biosphere 2 experience can help space and remote missions cope successfully with the inherent challenges of small, isolated crews.

Group dynamics challenges: Insights from Biosphere 2 experiments.

PubMed

Nelson, Mark; Gray, Kathelin; Allen, John P

2015-07-01

Successfully managing group dynamics of small, physically isolated groups is vital for long duration space exploration/habitation and for terrestrial CELSS (Controlled Environmental Life Support System) facilities with human participants. Biosphere 2 had important differences and shares some key commonalities with both Antarctic and space environments. There were a multitude of stress factors during the first two year closure experiment as well as mitigating factors. A helpful tool used at Biosphere 2 was the work of W.R. Bion who identified two competing modalities of behavior in small groups. Task-oriented groups are governed by conscious acceptance of goals, reality-thinking in relation to time and resources, and intelligent management of challenges. The opposing unconscious mode, the "basic-assumption" ("group animal") group, manifests through Dependency/Kill the Leader, Fight/Flight and Pairing. These unconscious dynamics undermine and can defeat the task group's goal. The biospherians experienced some dynamics seen in other isolated teams: factions developing reflecting personal chemistry and disagreements on overall mission procedures. These conflicts were exacerbated by external power struggles which enlisted support of those inside. Nevertheless, the crew evolved a coherent, creative life style to deal with some of the deprivations of isolation. The experience of the first two year closure of Biosphere 2 vividly illustrates both vicissitudes and management of group dynamics. The crew overrode inevitable frictions to creatively manage both operational and research demands and opportunities of the facility, thus staying 'on task' in Bion's group dynamics terminology. The understanding that Biosphere 2 was their life support system may also have helped the mission to succeed. Insights from the Biosphere 2 experience can help space and remote missions cope successfully with the inherent challenges of small, isolated crews. Copyright © 2015 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Work Role Functioning Questionnaire v2.0 Showed Consistent Factor Structure Across Six Working Samples.

PubMed

Abma, Femke I; Bültmann, Ute; Amick Iii, Benjamin C; Arends, Iris; Dorland, Heleen F; Flach, Peter A; van der Klink, Jac J L; van de Ven, Hardy A; Bjørner, Jakob Bue

2017-09-09

Objective The Work Role Functioning Questionnaire v2.0 (WRFQ) is an outcome measure linking a persons' health to the ability to meet work demands in the twenty-first century. We aimed to examine the construct validity of the WRFQ in a heterogeneous set of working samples in the Netherlands with mixed clinical conditions and job types to evaluate the comparability of the scale structure. Methods Confirmatory factor and multi-group analyses were conducted in six cross-sectional working samples (total N = 2433) to evaluate and compare a five-factor model structure of the WRFQ (work scheduling demands, output demands, physical demands, mental and social demands, and flexibility demands). Model fit indices were calculated based on RMSEA ≤ 0.08 and CFI ≥ 0.95. After fitting the five-factor model, the multidimensional structure of the instrument was evaluated across samples using a second order factor model. Results The factor structure was robust across samples and a multi-group model had adequate fit (RMSEA = 0.63, CFI = 0.972). In sample specific analyses, minor modifications were necessary in three samples (final RMSEA 0.055-0.080, final CFI between 0.955 and 0.989). Applying the previous first order specifications, a second order factor model had adequate fit in all samples. Conclusion A five-factor model of the WRFQ showed consistent structural validity across samples. A second order factor model showed adequate fit, but the second order factor loadings varied across samples. Therefore subscale scores are recommended to compare across different clinical and working samples.

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis.

PubMed

Yin, Su; Dongjie, Guan; Weici, Su; Weijun, Gao

2017-11-01

The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.

An integrated communications demand model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doubleday, C. F.

1980-11-01

A computer model of communications demand is being developed to permit dynamic simulations of the long-term evolution of demand for communications media in the U.K. to be made under alternative assumptions about social, economic and technological trends in British Telecom's business environment. The context and objectives of the project and the potential uses of the model are reviewed, and four key concepts in the demand for communications media, around which the model is being structured are discussed: (1) the generation of communications demand; (2) substitution between media; (3) technological convergence; and (4) competition. Two outline perspectives on the model itself are given.

Psychosocial factors at work and self reported health: comparative results of cross sectional and prospective analyses of the French GAZEL cohort

PubMed Central

Niedhammer, I; Chea, M

2003-01-01

Background: Psychosocial factors at work have been found to be significant contributors to health, especially cardiovascular health. Aims: To explore the relation between psychosocial factors at work and self reported health, using cross sectional and prospective analyses for a large occupational cohort of men and women. Methods: Psychosocial factors at work were evaluated using the Karasek questionnaire, designed to measure psychological demands, decision latitude, social support, and physical demands. Self reported health was used as health outcome. Covariates included chronic diseases, and sociodemographic, occupational, and behavioural factors. The cross sectional and prospective analyses concerned respectively 11 447 and 7664 workers. Men and women were analysed separately. Results: Cross sectional analysis revealed significant associations between psychological demands, decision latitude, social support, and physical demands, and self reported health for both men and women. Prospective analysis showed that high psychological demands for both genders, low decision authority for men, and low social support and high physical demands for women were predictive of poor self reported health. These results were independent of potential confounding variables. Conclusions: Results highlight the predictive effects of psychosocial factors at work on self reported health in a one year follow up study. They also underline the need for longitudinal study design and separate analyses for men and women in the field of psychosocial factors at work. PMID:12819285

Cost function approach for estimating derived demand for composite wood products

Treesearch

T. C. Marcin

1991-01-01

A cost function approach was examined for using the concept of duality between production and input factor demands. A translog cost function was used to represent residential construction costs and derived conditional factor demand equations. Alternative models were derived from the translog cost function by imposing parameter restrictions.

[Influence factors on supply and demand changes in the field of acupuncture and moxibustion].

PubMed

Liu, Bin; Li, Ping

2011-11-01

Based on principles of health economy and the present situation, the possibility and regularity on changes in the supply and demand field of acupuncture and moxibustion through various viewpoints were analyzed, which included demand and supply elasticity of acup-mox services to market price and the relevant factors, categories and nature of acup-mox services, business idea of supplier on the strength of marginal cost and marginal benefit, expenditure level and inclination of demander, complementary and substitutive treatment of acup-mox therapy, and the relevant time and geographic factors to change in quantity demand and supply. Therefore, it could be applied as reference to redaction and reform of the relevant health economics policy by health administrative management.

A method of demand-driven and data-centric Web service configuration for flexible business process implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Boyi; Xu, Li Da; Fei, Xiang; Jiang, Lihong; Cai, Hongming; Wang, Shuai

2017-08-01

Facing the rapidly changing business environments, implementation of flexible business process is crucial, but difficult especially in data-intensive application areas. This study aims to provide scalable and easily accessible information resources to leverage business process management. In this article, with a resource-oriented approach, enterprise data resources are represented as data-centric Web services, grouped on-demand of business requirement and configured dynamically to adapt to changing business processes. First, a configurable architecture CIRPA involving information resource pool is proposed to act as a scalable and dynamic platform to virtualise enterprise information resources as data-centric Web services. By exposing data-centric resources as REST services in larger granularities, tenant-isolated information resources could be accessed in business process execution. Second, dynamic information resource pool is designed to fulfil configurable and on-demand data accessing in business process execution. CIRPA also isolates transaction data from business process while supporting diverse business processes composition. Finally, a case study of using our method in logistics application shows that CIRPA provides an enhanced performance both in static service encapsulation and dynamic service execution in cloud computing environment.

Exposure to Psychosocial Risk Factors at Work and the Incidence of Occupational Injuries: A Cohort Study in Spain.

PubMed

Julià, Mireia; Catalina-Romero, Carlos; Calvo-Bonacho, Eva; Benavides, Fernando G

2016-03-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the association between the exposure to psychosocial risk factors at work and the incidence of occupational injuries (OIs). A prospective dynamic cohort study (n = 16,693) of 1-year follow-up. Psychosocial risk factors at work were assessed with the Spanish version of Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire. Incidence rates of OI per 1000 workers-year were calculated and associations between psychosocial risk factors and OI were estimated by Poisson regression models. Unfavorable levels of esteem in men [rate ratio (RR) = 1.28], and unfavorable levels of social support and quality of leadership (RR = 1.87), psychological demands (RR = 2.20), and active work and possibilities for development (RR = 1.83) among women, were associated with OI incidence. Poor quality of psychosocial work environment increases the incidence of OI. Psychosocial intervention programs could be helpful in order to reduce OI incidence rates and their associated costs.

Functional optical coherence tomography for live dynamic analysis of mouse embryonic cardiogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shang; Lopez, Andrew L.; Larina, Irina V.

2018-02-01

Blood flow, heart contraction, and tissue stiffness are important regulators of cardiac morphogenesis and function during embryonic development. Defining how these factors are integrated is critically important to advance prevention, diagnostics, and treatment of congenital heart defects. Mammalian embryonic development is taking place deep within the female body, which makes cardiodynamic imaging and analysis during early developmental stages in humans inaccessible. With thousands of mutant lines available and well-established genetic manipulation tools, mouse is a great model to understand how biomechanical factors are integrated with molecular pathways to regulate cardiac function and development. Dynamic imaging and quantitative analysis of the biomechanics of live mouse embryos have become increasingly important, which demands continuous advancements in imaging techniques and live assessment approaches. This has been one of the major drives to keep pushing the frontier of embryonic imaging for better resolution, higher speed, deeper penetration, and more diverse and effective contrasts. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has played a significant role in addressing such demands, and its features in non-labeling imaging, 3D capability, a large working distance, and various functional derivatives allow OCT to cover a number of specific applications in embryonic imaging. Recently, our group has made several technical improvements in using OCT to probe the biomechanical aspects of live developing mouse embryos at early stages. These include the direct volumetric structural and functional imaging of the cardiodynamics, four-dimensional quantitative Doppler imaging and analysis of the cardiac blood flow, and fourdimensional blood flow separation from the cardiac wall tissue in the beating embryonic heart. Here, we present a short review of these studies together with brief descriptions of the previous work that demonstrate OCT as a valuable and useful imaging tool for the research in developmental cardiology.

Effects of the international soybean trade on the dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity in soybean-producing regions in China and Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viña, A.; Silva, R. F. B. D.; Yang, H.; Liu, J.

2017-12-01

The international trade of agricultural commodities, such as soybean, is driven by a series of pull and push factors linked to market demand. These in turn fluctuate based on changes in economic affluence, infrastructure development, and socioeconomic homogenization, among others, in both sending and receiving systems. While many studies have analyzed some of these push/pull factors and their environmental effects in either sending or receiving systems, few studies have assessed these effects simultaneously in both sending and receiving systems. This study evaluates the effects of the soybean trade between Brazil and China on the spatio-temporal patterns of gross primary productivity (GPP) in both sending and receiving systems. The GPP is a measure of the amount of biomass produced through photosynthesis across space and through time. This metric is directly related with the amount of carbon that is sequestered from the atmosphere, and thus is related with the impacts of land use/cover dynamics on global climate change. The spatio-temporal patterns of both GPP and land use/cover were evaluated simultaneously in two soybean-producing regions (state of Mato Grosso in Brazil, and Heilongjiang province in China) through the use of surface reflectance data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellite, combined with a production efficiency model (PEM) entirely based on remotely sensed data. Results from this analysis provide new insights on the consequences of the international trade at local/regional scales, and allow assessing how changes in market demand for agricultural commodities may generate drastic environmental effects in both sending and receiving systems, with global implications on carbon sequestration and thus on climate change.

Demand for Self-Employed Health Insurance.

PubMed

Emamgholipour, Sara; Arab, Mohammad; Ebrahimzadeh, Javad

2016-10-01

Health insurance provides financial support for health care expenditures. There are two types of health insurance: compulsory and voluntary. Voluntary health insurance can be divided into two categories: self-employed and supplementary. In this study, the main factors that affect the demand for self-employed health insurance in Iran were determined. In this cross-sectional study, data were derived from the 2013 Household Income and Expenditure Survey from the Statistical Center of Iran. Then, a logistic regression model was designed to determine the factors influencing health insurance demand. The age, income, and education level of the head of the household directly correlated with the demand for self-employed health insurance. There was no significant relationship between the demand for health insurance and the gender or marital status of the head of the household. In addition, there were no significant relationships between occupation or house ownership and the demand for health insurance in rural households. To promote voluntary health insurance, it is helpful to identify effective factors that stimulate the health insurance demand.

Leveraging Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) in Mission Command

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-21

Operational artists at all levels need new conceptual tools commensurate to today’s demands. Conceptual aids derived from old, industrial-age analogies...are not up to the mental gymnastics demanded by 21 st –century missions. Because operational environments evince increasingly dynamic complexity

New advances in dynamic cardiomyoplasty: Doppler flow wire shows improved cardiac assistance in demand protocol.

PubMed

Rigatelli, Gianluca; Carraro, Ugo; Barbiero, Mario; Zanchetta, Mario; Pedon, Luigi; Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Rigatelli, Giorgio; Maiolino, Pietro; Cobelli, Franco; Riccardi, Riccardo; Volta, Sergio Dalla

2002-01-01

No data have been published on real cardiac assistance with demand dynamic cardiomyoplasty. We tested the utility of a Doppler flow wire in measuring beat by beat aortic flow velocity and evaluating cardiac assistance in demand cardiomyoplasty patients. The technique was tested in seven patients (M/W = 6/1; age, 57.1+/-6.2 years; atrial fibrillation/ sinus rhythm = 1/6; New York Heart Association [NYHA] classification = 1.4+/-0.5). Measurements were done using a 0.018 inch peripheral Doppler flow wire advanced through a 5 French arterial femoral sheath. Three 1 minute periods with the stimulator off, and three 1 minute periods with clinical stimulation were recorded. We measured peak aortic flow velocity in all beats. Latissimus dorsi mechanogram was simultaneously recorded. Comparison between preoperative and follow-up data showed significantly higher values of tetanic fusion frequency and ejection fraction at follow-up, whereas mean NYHA class was significantly lower. Statistical analysis showed an increase in aortic flow velocity not only in the assisted versus rest period, but also in assisted versus unassisted beats (8.42+/-6.98% and 7.55+/-3.07%). A linear correlation was found between increase in flow velocity and latissimus dorsi wrap tetanic fusion frequency (r2 = 0.53). In demand dynamic cardiomyoplasty, systolic assistance is significant and correlated to the latissimus dorsi speed of contraction; a demand stimulation protocol maintains muscle properties and increases muscle performance.

The curse of planning: dissecting multiple reinforcement-learning systems by taxing the central executive.

PubMed

Otto, A Ross; Gershman, Samuel J; Markman, Arthur B; Daw, Nathaniel D

2013-05-01

A number of accounts of human and animal behavior posit the operation of parallel and competing valuation systems in the control of choice behavior. In these accounts, a flexible but computationally expensive model-based reinforcement-learning system has been contrasted with a less flexible but more efficient model-free reinforcement-learning system. The factors governing which system controls behavior-and under what circumstances-are still unclear. Following the hypothesis that model-based reinforcement learning requires cognitive resources, we demonstrated that having human decision makers perform a demanding secondary task engenders increased reliance on a model-free reinforcement-learning strategy. Further, we showed that, across trials, people negotiate the trade-off between the two systems dynamically as a function of concurrent executive-function demands, and people's choice latencies reflect the computational expenses of the strategy they employ. These results demonstrate that competition between multiple learning systems can be controlled on a trial-by-trial basis by modulating the availability of cognitive resources.

The Curse of Planning: Dissecting multiple reinforcement learning systems by taxing the central executive

PubMed Central

Otto, A. Ross; Gershman, Samuel J.; Markman, Arthur B.; Daw, Nathaniel D.

2013-01-01

A number of accounts of human and animal behavior posit the operation of parallel and competing valuation systems in the control of choice behavior. Along these lines, a flexible but computationally expensive model-based reinforcement learning system has been contrasted with a less flexible but more efficient model-free reinforcement learning system. The factors governing which system controls behavior—and under what circumstances—are still unclear. Based on the hypothesis that model-based reinforcement learning requires cognitive resources, we demonstrate that having human decision-makers perform a demanding secondary task engenders increased reliance on a model-free reinforcement learning strategy. Further, we show that across trials, people negotiate this tradeoff dynamically as a function of concurrent executive function demands and their choice latencies reflect the computational expenses of the strategy employed. These results demonstrate that competition between multiple learning systems can be controlled on a trial-by-trial basis by modulating the availability of cognitive resources. PMID:23558545

Orbit on demand - Structural analysis finds vertical launchers weigh less

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, A. H.; Cruz, C. I.; Jackson, L. R.; Naftel, J. C.; Wurster, K. E.; Cerro, J. A.

1985-01-01

Structural considerations arising from favored design concepts for the next generation on-demand launch vehicles are explored. The two emerging concepts are a two stage fully reusable vertical take-off vehicle (V-2) and a horizontal take-off, two stage subsonic boost launch vehicle (H-2-Sub). Both designs have an 1100 n. mi. cross-range capability, with the V-2 orbiter having small wings with winglets for hypersonic trim and the H-2-Sub requiring larger, swept wings. The rockets would be cryogenic, while airbreathing initial boosters would be either turbofans, turbojets and/or ramjets. Dynamic loading is lower in the launch of a V-2. The TPS is a critical factor due to thinner leading edges than on the Shuttle and may require heat-pipe cooling. Airframe structures made of metal matrix composites have passed finite element simulations of projected loads and can now undergo proof-of-concept tests, although whisker-reinforced materials may be superior once long-whisker technology is developed.

Mitochondrial dynamics in the regulation of neurogenesis: From development to the adult brain.

PubMed

Khacho, Mireille; Slack, Ruth S

2018-01-01

Mitochondria are classically known to be the cellular energy producers, but a renewed appreciation for these organelles has developed with the accumulating discoveries of additional functions. The importance of mitochondria within the brain has been long known, particularly given the high-energy demanding nature of neurons. The energy demands imposed by neurons require the well-orchestrated morphological adaptation and distribution of mitochondria. Recent studies now reveal the importance of mitochondrial dynamics not only in mature neurons but also during neural development, particularly during the process of neurogenesis and neural stem cell fate decisions. In this review, we will highlight the recent findings that illustrate the importance of mitochondrial dynamics in neurodevelopment and neural stem cell function. Developmental Dynamics 247:47-53, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Potential climate change impacts on water availability and cooling water demand in the Lusatian Lignite Mining Region, Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael

2014-05-01

In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower water availability in the region, were simulated by SWIM and WBalMo respectively. Next to changing climate conditions, also the different mining scenarios have considerable impacts on natural and managed discharges. Using the dynamic approach for cooling water demand, the simulated water demands are lower in winter, but higher in summer compared to the static approach. As a consequence of changes in the seasonal pattern of the cooling water demand of the power plants, lower summer discharges downstream of the thermal power plants are simulated using the dynamical approach. Due to the complex water management system in the region included in the water management model WBalMo, also the simulation of reservoir releases and volumes is impacted by the choice of either the static or the dynamic approach for calculating the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants.

Charge symmetry breaking effects in pion and kaon structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutauruk, Parada T. P.; Bentz, Wolfgang; Cloët, Ian C.; Thomas, Anthony W.

2018-05-01

Charge symmetry breaking (CSB) effects associated with the u and d quark mass difference are investigated in the quark distribution functions and spacelike electromagnetic form factors of the pion and kaon. We use a confining version of the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model, where CSB effects at the infrared scale associated with the model are driven by the dressed u and d quark mass ratio, which because of dynamical chiral symmetry breaking is much closer to unity than the associated current quark mass ratio. The pion and kaon are given as bound states of a dressed quark and a dressed antiquark governed by the Bethe-Salpeter equation, and exhibit the properties of Goldstone bosons, with a pion mass difference given by mπ+2-mπ0 2∝(mu-md)2 as demanded by dynamical chiral symmetry breaking. We find significant CSB effects for realistic current quark mass ratios (mu/md˜0.5 ) in the quark flavor-sector electromagnetic form factors of both the pion and kaon. For example, the difference between the u and d quark contributions to the π+ electromagnetic form factors is about 8% at a momentum transfer of Q2≃10 GeV2 , while the analogous effect for the light quark sector form factors in the K+ and K0 is about twice as large. For the parton distribution functions we find CSB effects which are considerably smaller than those found in the electromagnetic form factors.

Piezoelectric tunable microwave superconducting cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, N. C.; Fan, Y.; Tobar, M. E.

2016-09-01

In the context of engineered quantum systems, there is a demand for superconducting tunable devices, able to operate with high-quality factors at power levels equivalent to only a few photons. In this work, we developed a 3D microwave re-entrant cavity with such characteristics ready to provide a very fine-tuning of a high-Q resonant mode over a large dynamic range. This system has an electronic tuning mechanism based on a mechanically amplified piezoelectric actuator, which controls the resonator dominant mode frequency by changing the cavity narrow gap by very small displacements. Experiments were conducted at room and dilution refrigerator temperatures showing a large dynamic range up to 4 GHz and 1 GHz, respectively, and were compared to a finite element method model simulated data. At elevated microwave power input, nonlinear thermal effects were observed to destroy the superconductivity of the cavity due to the large electric fields generated in the small gap of the re-entrant cavity.

Modeling the Trajectory of Analgesic Demand Over Time After Total Knee Arthroplasty Using the Latent Curve Analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Po-Han; Tsou, Mei-Yung; Chang, Kuang-Yi

2015-09-01

Patient-controlled epidural analgesia (PCEA) is commonly used for pain relief after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This study aimed to model the trajectory of analgesic demand over time after TKA and explore its influential factors using latent curve analysis. Data were retrospectively collected from 916 patients receiving unilateral or bilateral TKA and postoperative PCEA. PCEA demands during 12-hour intervals for 48 hours were directly retrieved from infusion pumps. Potentially influential factors of PCEA demand, including age, height, weight, body mass index, sex, and infusion pump settings, were also collected. A latent curve analysis with 2 latent variables, the intercept (baseline) and slope (trend), was applied to model the changes in PCEA demand over time. The effects of influential factors on these 2 latent variables were estimated to examine how these factors interacted with time to alter the trajectory of PCEA demand over time. On average, the difference in analgesic demand between the first and second 12-hour intervals was only 15% of that between the first and third 12-hour intervals. No significant difference in PCEA demand was noted between the third and fourth 12-hour intervals. Aging tended to decrease the baseline PCEA demand but body mass index and infusion rate were positively correlated with the baseline. Only sex significantly affected the trend parameter and male individuals tended to have a smoother decreasing trend of analgesic demands over time. Patients receiving bilateral procedures did not consume more analgesics than their unilateral counterparts. Goodness of fit analysis indicated acceptable model fit to the observed data. Latent curve analysis provided valuable information about how analgesic demand after TKA changed over time and how patient characteristics affected its trajectory.

Mapping Multi-Cropped Land Use to Estimate Water Demand Using the California Pesticide Reporting Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, W.; Baillie, M. N.; Martin, D.

2017-12-01

Detailed and dynamic land-use data is one of the biggest data deficiencies facing food and water security issues. Better land-use data results in improved integrated hydrologic models that are needed to look at the feedback between land and water use, specifically for adequately representing changes and dynamics in rainfall-runoff, urban and agricultural water demands, and surface fluxes of water (e.g., evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration). Currently, land-use data typically are compiled from annual (e.g., Crop Scape) or multi-year composites if mapped at all. While this approach provides information about interannual land-use practices, it does not capture the dynamic changes in highly developed agricultural lands prevalent in California agriculture such as (1) dynamic land-use changes from high frequency multi-crop rotations and (2) uncertainty in sub-annual crop distribution, planting times, and cropped areas. California has collected spatially distributed data for agricultural pesticide use since 1974 through the California Pesticide Information Portal (CalPIP). A method leveraging the CalPIP database has been developed to provide vital information about dynamic agricultural land use (e.g., crop distribution and planting times) and water demand issues in Salinas Valley, California, along the central coast. This 7 billion dollar/year agricultural area produces up to 50% of U.S. lettuce and broccoli. Therefore, effective and sustainable water resource development in the area must balance the needs of this essential industry, other beneficial uses, and the environment. This new tool provides a way to provide more dynamic crop data in hydrologic models. While the current application focuses on the Salinas Valley, the methods are extensible to all of California and other states with similar pesticide reporting. The improvements in representing variability in crop patterns and associated water demands increase our understanding of land-use change and precision of hydrologic decision models. Ultimately, further refinement to the parcel level will completely capture the changing topology of agricultural land use.

Cyber Physical System Modelling of Distribution Power Systems for Dynamic Demand Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Rongxiang; Tang, Maosen; Huang, Haoyi; Zhang, Lei

2018-01-01

Dynamic demand response (DDR) is a package of control methods to enhance power system security. A CPS modelling and simulation platform for DDR in distribution power systems is presented in this paper. CPS modelling requirements of distribution power systems are analyzed. A coupled CPS modelling platform is built for assessing DDR in the distribution power system, which combines seamlessly modelling tools of physical power networks and cyber communication networks. Simulations results of IEEE 13-node test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the modelling and simulation platform.

Can Evolution Supply What Ecology Demands?

PubMed

Kokko, Hanna; Chaturvedi, Anurag; Croll, Daniel; Fischer, Martin C; Guillaume, Frédéric; Karrenberg, Sophie; Kerr, Ben; Rolshausen, Gregor; Stapley, Jessica

2017-03-01

A simplistic view of the adaptive process pictures a hillside along which a population can climb: when ecological 'demands' change, evolution 'supplies' the variation needed for the population to climb to a new peak. Evolutionary ecologists point out that this simplistic view can be incomplete because the fitness landscape changes dynamically as the population evolves. Geneticists meanwhile have identified complexities relating to the nature of genetic variation and its architecture, and the importance of epigenetic variation is under debate. In this review, we highlight how complexity in both ecological 'demands' and the evolutionary 'supply' influences organisms' ability to climb fitness landscapes that themselves change dynamically as evolution proceeds, and encourage new synthetic effort across research disciplines towards ecologically realistic studies of adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From Walras’ auctioneer to continuous time double auctions: a general dynamic theory of supply and demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donier, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

2016-12-01

In standard Walrasian auctions, the price of a good is defined as the point where the supply and demand curves intersect. Since both curves are generically regular, the response to small perturbations is linearly small. However, a crucial ingredient is absent of the theory, namely transactions themselves. What happens after they occur? To answer the question, we develop a dynamic theory for supply and demand based on agents with heterogeneous beliefs. When the inter-auction time is infinitely long, the Walrasian mechanism is recovered. When transactions are allowed to happen in continuous time, a peculiar property emerges: close to the price, supply and demand vanish quadratically, which we empirically confirm on the Bitcoin. This explains why price impact in financial markets is universally observed to behave as the square root of the excess volume. The consequences are important, as they imply that the very fact of clearing the market makes prices hypersensitive to small fluctuations.

Identifying work ability promoting factors for home care aides and assistant nurses

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In workplace health promotion, all potential resources needs to be taken into consideration, not only factors relating to the absence of injury and the physical health of the workers, but also psychological aspects. A dynamic balance between the resources of the individual employees and the demands of work is an important prerequisite. In the home care services, there is a noticeable trend towards increased psychosocial strain on employees at work. There are a high frequency of work-related musculoskeletal disorders and injuries, and a low prevalence of sustainable work ability. The aim of this research was to identify factors promoting work ability and self-efficacy in care aides and assistant nurses within home care services. Methods This study is based on cross-sectional data collected in a municipality in northern Sweden. Care aides (n = 58) and assistant nurses (n = 79) replied to a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 46%). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were performed to assess the influence of several independent variables on self-efficacy (model 1) and work ability (model 2) for care aides and assistant nurses separately. Results Perceptions of personal safety, self-efficacy and musculoskeletal wellbeing contributed to work ability for assistant nurses (R2adj of 0.36, p < 0.001), while for care aides, the safety climate, seniority and age contributed to work ability (R2adj of 0.29, p = 0.001). Self-efficacy was associated with the safety climate and the physical demands of the job in both professions (R2adj of 0.24, p = 0.003 for care aides), and also by sex and age for the assistant nurses (R2adj of 0.31, p < 0.001). Conclusions The intermediate factors contributed differently to work ability in the two professions. Self-efficacy, personal safety and musculoskeletal wellbeing were important for the assistant nurses, while the work ability of the care aides was associated with the safety climate, but also with the non-changeable factors age and seniority. All these factors are important to acknowledge in practice and in further research. Proactive workplace interventions need to focus on potentially modifiable factors such as self-efficacy, safety climate, physical job demands and musculoskeletal wellbeing. PMID:22236253

The futility of utility: how market dynamics marginalize Adam Smith

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2000-10-01

Economic theorizing is based on the postulated, nonempiric notion of utility. Economists assume that prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. The results are supposed to represent mathematically the stabilizing action of Adam Smith's invisible hand. In deterministic excess demand dynamics I show the following. A utility function generally does not exist mathematically due to nonintegrable dynamics when production/investment are accounted for, resolving Mirowski's thesis. Price as a function of demand does not exist mathematically either. All equilibria are unstable. I then explain how deterministic chaos can be distinguished from random noise at short times. In the generalization to liquid markets and finance theory described by stochastic excess demand dynamics, I also show the following. Market price distributions cannot be rescaled to describe price movements as ‘equilibrium’ fluctuations about a systematic drift in price. Utility maximization does not describe equilibrium. Maximization of the Gibbs entropy of the observed price distribution of an asset would describe equilibrium, if equilibrium could be achieved, but equilibrium does not describe real, liquid markets (stocks, bonds, foreign exchange). There are three inconsistent definitions of equilibrium used in economics and finance, only one of which is correct. Prices in unregulated free markets are unstable against both noise and rising or falling expectations: Adam Smith's stabilizing invisible hand does not exist, either in mathematical models of liquid market data, or in real market data.

System Dynamic Model for the Accumulation of Renewable Electricity using Power-to-Gas and Power-to-Liquid Concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumberga, Andra; Timma, Lelde; Blumberga, Dagnija

2015-12-01

When the renewable energy is used, the challenge is match the supply of intermittent energy with the demand for energy therefore the energy storage solutions should be used. This paper is dedicated to hydrogen accumulation from wind sources. The case study investigates the conceptual system that uses intermitted renewable energy resources to produce hydrogen (power-to-gas concept) and fuel (power-to-liquid concept). For this specific case study hydrogen is produced from surplus electricity generated by wind power plant trough electrolysis process and fuel is obtained by upgrading biogas to biomethane using hydrogen. System dynamic model is created for this conceptual system. The developed system dynamics model has been used to simulate 2 different scenarios. The results show that in both scenarios the point at which the all electricity needs of Latvia are covered is obtained. Moreover, the methodology of system dynamics used in this paper is white-box model that allows to apply the developed model to other case studies and/or to modify model based on the newest data. The developed model can be used for both scientific research and policy makers to better understand the dynamic relation within the system and the response of system to changes in both internal and external factors.

Microgrid Utilities for Rural Electrification in East Africa: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Nathaniel J.

Expanding access to electricity is central to development in East Africa but massive increases in investment are required to achieve universal access. Private sector participation in electrification is essential to meeting electricity access targets. Policy makers have acknowledged that grid extension in many remote rural areas is not as cost effective as decentralized alternatives such as microgrids. Microgrid companies have been unable to scale beyond pilot projects due in part to challenges in raising capital for a business model that is perceived to be risky. This thesis aims to identify and quantify the primary sources of investment risk in microgrid utilities and study ways to mitigate these risks to make these businesses more viable. Two modeling tools have been developed to this end. The Stochastic Techno-Economic Microgrid Model (STEMM) models the technical and financial performance of microgrid utilities using uncertain and dynamic inputs to permit explicit modeling of financial risk. This model is applied in an investment risk assessment and case study in Rwanda. Key findings suggest that the most important drivers of risk are fuel prices, foreign exchange rates, demand for electricity, and price elasticity of demand for electricity. The relative importance of these factors is technology dependent with demand uncertainty figuring stronger for solar and high solar penetration hybrid systems and fuel prices driving risk in diesel power and low solar penetration hybrid systems. Considering uncertainty in system sizing presents a tradeoff whereby a decrease in expected equity return decreases downside risk. High solar penetration systems are also found to be more attractive to lenders. The second modeling tool leverages electricity consumption and demographic data from four microgrids in Tanzania to forecast demand for electricity in newly electrified communities. Using statistical learning techniques, improvements in prediction performance was achieved over the historical mean baseline. I have also identified important predictors in estimating electricity consumption of newly connected customers. These include tariff structures and prices, pre- connection sources of electricity and lighting, levels of spending on electricity services and airtime, and pre-connection appliance ownership. Prior exposure to electricity, disposable income, and price are dominant factors in estimating demand.

A day at a time: caregiving on the edge in advanced COPD

PubMed Central

Simpson, A Catherine; Young, Joanne; Donahue, Margaret; Rocker, Graeme

2010-01-01

The human cost of advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for informal caregivers in Canada is mostly unknown. Formal care is episodic, and informal caregivers provide the bulk of care between exacerbations. While patients fear becoming burdensome to family, we lack relevant data against which to assess the validity of this fear. The purpose of our qualitative study was to better understand the extent and nature of ‘burden’ experienced by informal caregivers in advanced COPD. The analysis of 14 informal caregivers interviews yielded the global theme ‘a day at a time,’ reflecting caregivers’ approach to the process of adjusting/coping. Subthemes were: loss of intimate relationship/identity, disease-related demands, and coping-related factors. Caregivers experiencing most distress described greater negative impact on relational dynamics and identity, effects they associated with increasing illness demands especially care recipients’ difficult, emotionally controlling attitudes/behaviors. Our findings reflect substantial caregiver vulnerability in terms of an imbalance between burden and coping capacity. Informal caregivers provide necessary, cost-effective care for those living with COPD and/or other chronic illness. Improved understanding of the physical, emotional, spiritual, and relational factors contributing to their vulnerability can inform new chronic care models better able to support their efforts. PMID:20631814

Propensity to spending of an average consumer over a brief period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luca, Roberto; Di Mauro, Marco; Falzarano, Angelo; Naddeo, Adele

2016-08-01

Understanding consumption dynamics and its impact on the whole economy and welfare within the present economic crisis is not an easy task. Indeed the level of consumer demand for different goods varies with the prices, consumer incomes and demographic factors. Furthermore crisis may trigger different behaviors which result in distortions and amplification effects. In the present work we propose a simple model to quantitatively describe the time evolution over a brief period of the amount of money an average consumer decides to spend, depending on his/her available budget. A simple hydrodynamical analog of the model is discussed. Finally, perspectives of this work are briefly outlined.

Changing food habits in a South Indian Hindu Brahmin community: a case of transitioning gender roles and family dynamics.

PubMed

Mahadevan, Meena; Blair, Dorothy; Raines, Emily Rose

2014-01-01

This study was conducted to explore the perceptions of 20 South Indian Hindu Brahmin women on the factors influencing their food habits upon immigrating to America. The competing demands of juggling a new career and managing their family's nutritional needs at the same time, all without the support of extended family members, played an important role in steering these women away from cooking traditional healthy meals, and resorting to fast foods instead. Intervention strategies should be directed toward improving the barriers to eating healthy that were specifically identified within the confines of shifting gender roles and limited family support networks.

A life cycle model of public policy issues in health care: the importance of strategic issues management.

PubMed

Rakich, J S; Feit, M D

2001-01-01

Public policy affects health and social services organizations. Senior management has a responsibility to prevent inappropriate demands of stakeholders from predominating and to influence the outcome of public policy to the benefit of their organization through the strategic issues management process. This article presents a public policy issue life cycle model, life-cycle stages and suggested strategies, paths issues can take in the life cycle, and factors that affect issue paths. An understanding of these dynamics can aid senior managers in shaping and changing public policy issues and lessening external environment threats to their organization.

Microsimulation of household and firm behaviors : coupled models of land use and travel demand in Austin, Texas

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-12-01

Households and firms are key drivers of urban growth, yet models for forecasting travel demand often : ignore their dynamic evolution and several key decision processes. An understanding of household and : firm behavior over time is critical in antic...

Energy in buildings: Efficiency, renewables and storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koebel, Matthias M.

2017-07-01

This lecture summary provides a short but comprehensive overview on the "energy and buildings" topic. Buildings account for roughly 40% of the global energy demands. Thus, an increased adoption of existing and upcoming materials and solutions for the building sector represents an enormous potential to reduce building related energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions. The central question is how the building envelope (insulation, fenestration, construction style, solar control) affects building energy demands. Compared to conventional insulation materials, superinsulation materials such as vacuum insulation panels and silica aerogel achieve the same thermal performance with significantly thinner insulation layers. With low-emissivity coatings and appropriate filler gasses, double and triple glazing reduce thermal losses by up to an order of magnitude compared to old single pane windows, while vacuum insulation and aerogel filled glazing could reduce these even further. Electrochromic and other switchable glazing solutions maximize solar gains during wintertime and minimize illumination demands whilst avoiding overheating in summer. Upon integration of renewable energy systems into the building energy supply, buildings can become both producers and consumers of energy. Combined with dynamic user behavior, temporal variations in the production of renewable energy require appropriate storage solutions, both thermal and electrical, and the integration of buildings into smart grids and energy district networks. The combination of these measures allows a reduction of the existing building stock by roughly a factor of three —a promising, but cost intensive way, to prepare our buildings for the energy turnaround.

Job demand and cardiovascular disease risk factor in white-collar workers.

PubMed

Song, Young Kyu; Lee, Kang Koo; Kim, Hyoung Ryoul; Koo, Jung-Wan

2010-01-01

This study was conducted to determine whether job demand played a role as a risk factor of cardiovascular diseases by comparing changes of blood pressure, heart rate and rate pressure product (RPP) showing myocardial oxygen consumption (MVO2) according to levels of job demand. This cross-sectional study divided 177 male white-collar workers without a cardiovascular or metabolic disease according to their job demand and analyzed their body composition and results of graded exercise testing. There was no significant difference in height, body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist to hip ratio (WHR) and body fat percentage according to job demand. Maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) and anaerobic threshold (AT) also did not show a significant difference. However, systolic blood pressures at the seventh and eighth stages over AT during exercise were significantly different and RPP was found to have a significant difference overall according to the job demand (p<0.05). These results meant that job demand affected systolic pressure in physical activities or at exercise intensity over AT and reduced energy efficiency of myocardium during physical activities. The results suggest that high job demand may be a risk factor of cardiovascular diseases.

The transport forecast - an important stage of transport management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dragu, Vasile; Dinu, Oana; Oprea, Cristina; Alina Roman, Eugenia

2017-10-01

The transport system is a powerful system with varying loads in operation coming from changes in freight and passenger traffic in different time periods. The variations are due to the specific conditions of organization and development of socio-economic activities. The causes of varying loads can be included in three groups: economic, technical and organizational. The assessing of transport demand variability leads to proper forecast and development of the transport system, knowing that the market price is determined on equilibrium between supply and demand. The reduction of transport demand variability through different technical solutions, organizational, administrative, legislative leads to an increase in the efficiency and effectiveness of transport. The paper presents a new way of assessing the future needs of transport through dynamic series. Both researchers and practitioners in transport planning can benefit from the research results. This paper aims to analyze in an original approach how a good transport forecast can lead to a better management in transport, with significant effects on transport demand full meeting in quality terms. The case study shows how dynamic series of statistics can be used to identify the size of future demand addressed to the transport system.

Selective randomized load balancing and mesh networks with changing demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, F. B.; Winzer, P. J.

2006-05-01

We consider the problem of building cost-effective networks that are robust to dynamic changes in demand patterns. We compare several architectures using demand-oblivious routing strategies. Traditional approaches include single-hop architectures based on a (static or dynamic) circuit-switched core infrastructure and multihop (packet-switched) architectures based on point-to-point circuits in the core. To address demand uncertainty, we seek minimum cost networks that can carry the class of hose demand matrices. Apart from shortest-path routing, Valiant's randomized load balancing (RLB), and virtual private network (VPN) tree routing, we propose a third, highly attractive approach: selective randomized load balancing (SRLB). This is a blend of dual-hop hub routing and randomized load balancing that combines the advantages of both architectures in terms of network cost, delay, and delay jitter. In particular, we give empirical analyses for the cost (in terms of transport and switching equipment) for the discussed architectures, based on three representative carrier networks. Of these three networks, SRLB maintains the resilience properties of RLB while achieving significant cost reduction over all other architectures, including RLB and multihop Internet protocol/multiprotocol label switching (IP/MPLS) networks using VPN-tree routing.

Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xin

Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no consensus has been reached on OPEC strategic behavior. In the third chapter, we are interested in the effects of supply-side market power on oil price dynamics in face of different demand shocks, and model the oil market as composed of a strategic dominant firm and several competitive fringe producers. In each period, the dominant firm makes decision while taking fringe's response into consideration. We consider two alternative pricing strategies for the dominant firm. Our results show that this dynamic strategic model improves the potential of dominant firm-competitive fringe model in fitting and explaining real world data. A regime switch after a permanent demand increase generates a time path for price that looks like the price movements in the recent years.

[Scale of organizational learning in schools. Organizational learning is a key element for the development of organizations].

PubMed

López, Verónica; Ahumada, Luis; Olivares, Rodrigo; González, Alvaro

2012-05-01

Organizational learning is a key element for the development of organizations. School organizations are not exempt from this challenge and they currently face a highly dynamic and demanding context of education policies that emphasize the school's ability to learn. Thus, research on organizational learning in educational contexts requires valid instruments that are sensitive to the specifics of schools as organizations. In this study, we adapted and validated a scale of organizational learning in a sample of 119 Chilean municipal schools (N= 1,545). The results suggest a structural model made up of three factors: culture of learning, strategic clarity, and group learning. These factors predicted dimensions of educational achievement, as measured through the National Assessment System of Educational Achievement (SNED). Results are discussed in view of the literature on school improvement.

Convergence acceleration of molecular dynamics methods for shocked materials using velocity scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, DeCarlos E.

2017-03-01

In this work, a convergence acceleration method applicable to extended system molecular dynamics techniques for shock simulations of materials is presented. The method uses velocity scaling to reduce the instantaneous value of the Rankine-Hugoniot conservation of energy constraint used in extended system molecular dynamics methods to more rapidly drive the system towards a converged Hugoniot state. When used in conjunction with the constant stress Hugoniostat method, the velocity scaled trajectories show faster convergence to the final Hugoniot state with little difference observed in the converged Hugoniot energy, pressure, volume and temperature. A derivation of the scale factor is presented and the performance of the technique is demonstrated using the boron carbide armour ceramic as a test material. It is shown that simulation of boron carbide Hugoniot states, from 5 to 20 GPa, using both a classical Tersoff potential and an ab initio density functional, are more rapidly convergent when the velocity scaling algorithm is applied. The accelerated convergence afforded by the current algorithm enables more rapid determination of Hugoniot states thus reducing the computational demand of such studies when using expensive ab initio or classical potentials.

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic cigarette demand curve in adolescent smokers

PubMed Central

Bidwell, L. Cinnamon; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G.; Tidey, Jennifer W.; Colby, Suzanne M.

2012-01-01

Behavioral economic demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption across a range of prices, have been used to assess motivation for a variety of drugs. Such curves generate multiple measures of drug demand that are associated with cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence. However, little is known about the relationships among these facets of demand. The aim of the study was to quantify these relationships in adolescent smokers by using exploratory factor analysis to examine the underlying structure of the facets of nicotine incentive value generated from a demand curve measure. Participants were 138 adolescent smokers who completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, which assessed estimated cigarette consumption at escalating levels of price/cigarette. Demand curves and five facets of demand were generated from the measure: Elasticity (i.e., 1/α or proportionate price sensitivity); Intensity (i.e., consumption at zero price); Omax (i.e., maximum financial expenditure on cigarettes); Pmax (i.e., price at which expenditure is maximized); and Breakpoint (i.e., the price that suppresses consumption to zero). Principal components analysis was used to examine the latent structure among the variables. The results revealed a two-factor solution, which were interpreted as “Persistence,” reflecting insensitivity to escalating price, and “Amplitude,” reflecting the absolute levels of consumption and price. These findings suggest a two factor structure of nicotine incentive value as measured via a demand curve. If supported, these findings have implications for understanding the relationships among individual demand indices in future behavioral economic studies and may further contribute to understanding of the nature of cigarette reinforcement. PMID:22727784

New hopes for dynamic cardiomyoplasty from use of Doppler flow wire in evaluation of demand stimulation.

PubMed

Rigatelli, G L; Carraro, U; Barbiero, M; Zanchetta, M; Rigatelli, G

2002-02-01

There are no data regarding real cardiac assistance in demand dynamic cardiomyoplasty (DDCMP). A test of the use of Doppler flow wire is presented to demonstrate cardiac assistance in DDCMP. Comparative study in hospitalized care. A peripheral Flex Doppler flow wire of 0.018 inch was advanced through a 4F introducer femoral arterial in seven DDCMP patients (age=57.1+/-6.2 years; NYHA= 1.4+/-0.5). A short period of 10 sec with stimulator off and a following period of 15 sec with clinical stimulation were recorded. We measured the maximum peak aortic flow velocity (MPAV) in all beats. Latissimus dorsi (LD) mechanogram was simultaneously recorded. Statistical analysis showed an increase not only in MPAV in assisted period versus rest, but also in assisted beats versus unassisted (8.42+/-6.98% and 7.55+/-3.07%). Intravascular Doppler proved real systolic assistance in DDCMP; in DDCMP systolic assistance is correlated to the LD wrap speed of contraction, suggesting that demand stimulation could be the most effective protocol in dynamic cardiomyoplasty.

Assessing economic tradeoffs in forest management.

Treesearch

Ernie Niemi; Ed. Whitelaw

1999-01-01

Method is described for assessing the competing demands for forest resources in a forest management plan by addressing economics values, economic impacts, and perceptions of fairness around each demand. Economics trends and forces that shape the dynamic ecosystem-economy relation are developed. The method is demonstrated through an illustrative analysis of a forest-...

Comparative dynamics in a health investment model.

PubMed

Eisenring, C

1999-10-01

The method of comparative dynamics fully exploits the inter-temporal structure of optimal control models. I derive comparative dynamic results in a simplified demand for health model. The effect of a change in the depreciation rate on the optimal paths for health capital and investment in health is studied by use of a phase diagram.

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation summary for ATDM program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-04

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Dynamic Mobility Application (DMA) connected vehicle applications and Active Transportation and Dynamic management (ATDM...

Modeling and Analysis of Commercial Building Electrical Loads for Demand Side Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berardino, Jonathan

In recent years there has been a push in the electric power industry for more customer involvement in the electricity markets. Traditionally the end user has played a passive role in the planning and operation of the power grid. However, many energy markets have begun opening up opportunities to consumers who wish to commit a certain amount of their electrical load under various demand side management programs. The potential benefits of more demand participation include reduced operating costs and new revenue opportunities for the consumer, as well as more reliable and secure operations for the utilities. The management of these load resources creates challenges and opportunities to the end user that were not present in previous market structures. This work examines the behavior of commercial-type building electrical loads and their capacity for supporting demand side management actions. This work is motivated by the need for accurate and dynamic tools to aid in the advancement of demand side operations. A dynamic load model is proposed for capturing the response of controllable building loads. Building-specific load forecasting techniques are developed, with particular focus paid to the integration of building management system (BMS) information. These approaches are tested using Drexel University building data. The application of building-specific load forecasts and dynamic load modeling to the optimal scheduling of multi-building systems in the energy market is proposed. Sources of potential load uncertainty are introduced in the proposed energy management problem formulation in order to investigate the impact on the resulting load schedule.

Job strain (demands and control model) as a predictor of cardiovascular risk factors among petrochemical personnel

PubMed Central

Habibi, Ehsanollah; Poorabdian, Siamak; Shakerian, Mahnaz

2015-01-01

Background: One of the practical models for the assessment of stressful working conditions due to job strain is job demand and control model, which explains how physical and psychological adverse consequences, including cardiovascular risk factors can be established due to high work demands (the amount of workload, in addition to time limitations to complete that work) and low control of the worker on his/her work (lack of decision making) in the workplace. The aim of this study was to investigate how certain cardiovascular risk factors (including body mass index [BMI], heart rate, blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking) and the job demand and job control are related to each other. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted on 500 workers of the petrochemical industry in south of Iran, 2009. The study population was selected using simple random statistical method. They completed job demand and control questionnaire. The cardiovascular risk factors data was extracted from the workers hygiene profiles. Chi-square (χ2) test and hypothesis test (η) were used to assess the possible relationship between different quantified variables, individual demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. Results: The results of this study revealed that a significant relationship can be found between job demand control model and cardiovascular risk factors. Chi-square test result for the heart rate showed the highest (χ2 = 145.078) relationship, the corresponding results for smoking and BMI were χ2 = 85.652 and χ2 = 30.941, respectively. Subsequently, hypothesis testing results for cholesterol and hypertension was 0.469 and 0.684, respectively. Discussion: Job strain is likely to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular risk factors among male staff in a petrochemical company in Iran. The parameters illustrated in the Job demands and control model can act as acceptable predictors for the probability of job stress occurrence followed by showing a high trend of CVD risk factors. PMID:25861661

Workload and Performance in Air Traffic Control: Exploring the Influence of Levels of Automation and Variation in Task Demand

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Tamsyn El; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Mercer, Joey

2017-01-01

In air traffic control, task demand and workload have important implications for the safety and efficiency of air traffic. Task demand is dynamic, however, research on demand transitions and associated controller perception and performance is limited. In addition, there is a comparatively restricted understanding of the influence of task demand transitions on workload and performance, in association with automation. This study used an air traffic control simulation to investigate the influence of task demand transitions and two conditions of varying automation, on workload and efficiency-related performance. Findings showed that a both the direction of the task demand variation, and the amount of automation, influenced the relationship between workload and performance. Further research is needed to enhance understanding of demand transition and workload history effects on operator experience and performance, in both air traffic control and other safety-critical domains.

19 CFR 103.23 - Factors in determining whether to disclose information pursuant to a demand.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Factors in determining whether to disclose information pursuant to a demand. 103.23 Section 103.23 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION... to a proper demand for Customs information, one which complies with the provisions of § 103.22(c...

19 CFR 103.23 - Factors in determining whether to disclose information pursuant to a demand.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Factors in determining whether to disclose information pursuant to a demand. 103.23 Section 103.23 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION... to a proper demand for Customs information, one which complies with the provisions of § 103.22(c...

19 CFR 103.23 - Factors in determining whether to disclose information pursuant to a demand.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Factors in determining whether to disclose information pursuant to a demand. 103.23 Section 103.23 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION... to a proper demand for Customs information, one which complies with the provisions of § 103.22(c...

19 CFR 103.23 - Factors in determining whether to disclose information pursuant to a demand.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Factors in determining whether to disclose... Disclosure in Federal, State, Local, and Foreign Proceedings § 103.23 Factors in determining whether to... those demands with respect to which any of the following factors exist: (1) Disclosure would violate a...

76 FR 55886 - Selection Criteria-Transportation Infrastructure Improvements Associated With Medical Facilities...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-09

... on-base parking demand (negative factor) or relieves parking demand (positive factor); (ii) the... four different comments. The public comments were considered by OEA in determining the final selection... of mitigation (positive factor) or contribution to vulnerability to a terrorist attack or major...

Encapsulating urban traffic rhythms into road networks.

PubMed

Wang, Junjie; Wei, Dong; He, Kun; Gong, Hang; Wang, Pu

2014-02-20

Using road GIS (geographical information systems) data and travel demand data for two U.S. urban areas, the dynamical driver sources of each road segment were located. A method to target road clusters closely related to urban traffic congestion was then developed to improve road network efficiency. The targeted road clusters show different spatial distributions at different times of a day, indicating that our method can encapsulate dynamical travel demand information into the road networks. As a proof of concept, when we lowered the speed limit or increased the capacity of road segments in the targeted road clusters, we found that both the number of congested roads and extra travel time were effectively reduced. In addition, the proposed modeling framework provided new insights on the optimization of transport efficiency in any infrastructure network with a specific supply and demand distribution.

Encapsulating Urban Traffic Rhythms into Road Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Junjie; Wei, Dong; He, Kun; Gong, Hang; Wang, Pu

2014-01-01

Using road GIS (geographical information systems) data and travel demand data for two U.S. urban areas, the dynamical driver sources of each road segment were located. A method to target road clusters closely related to urban traffic congestion was then developed to improve road network efficiency. The targeted road clusters show different spatial distributions at different times of a day, indicating that our method can encapsulate dynamical travel demand information into the road networks. As a proof of concept, when we lowered the speed limit or increased the capacity of road segments in the targeted road clusters, we found that both the number of congested roads and extra travel time were effectively reduced. In addition, the proposed modeling framework provided new insights on the optimization of transport efficiency in any infrastructure network with a specific supply and demand distribution. PMID:24553203

Minimization of Impact from Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment to the Electric Grid Using a Dynamically Controlled Battery Bank for Peak Load Shaving

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castello, Charles C

This research presents a comparison of two control systems for peak load shaving using local solar power generation (i.e., photovoltaic array) and local energy storage (i.e., battery bank). The purpose is to minimize load demand of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) on the electric grid. A static and dynamic control system is compared to decrease demand from EVSE. Static control of the battery bank is based on charging and discharging to the electric grid at fixed times. Dynamic control, with 15-minute resolution, forecasts EVSE load based on data analysis of collected data. In the proposed dynamic control system, the sigmoidmore » function is used to shave peak loads while limiting scenarios that can quickly drain the battery bank. These control systems are applied to Oak Ridge National Laboratory s (ORNL) solar-assisted electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. This installation is composed of three independently grid-tied sub-systems: (1) 25 EVSE; (2) 47 kW photovoltaic (PV) array; and (3) 60 kWh battery bank. The dynamic control system achieved the greatest peak load shaving, up to 34% on a cloudy day and 38% on a sunny day. The static control system was not ideal; peak load shaving was 14.6% on a cloudy day and 12.7% on a sunny day. Simulations based on ORNL data shows solar-assisted EV charging stations combined with the proposed dynamic battery control system can negate up to 89% of EVSE load demand on sunny days.« less

Successional dynamics of marine fouling hydroids (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa) at a finfish aquaculture facility in the Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Bracale, Roberta; Carrion, Steven A.; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Lezzi, Marco; Gravili, Cinzia; Piraino, Stefano; Boero, Ferdinando

2018-01-01

Aquaculture is increasing rapidly to meet global seafood demand. Some hydroid populations have been linked to mortality and health issues in finfish and shellfish, but their dynamics in and around aquaculture farms remain understudied. In the present work, two experiments, each with 36 panels, tested colonization (factors: depth, season of immersion) and succession (factors: depth, submersion duration) over one year. Hydroid surface cover was estimated for each species, and data were analyzed with multivariate techniques. The assemblage of hydrozoans was species-poor, although species richness, frequency and abundance increased with time, paralleling the overall increase in structural complexity of fouling assemblages. Submersion duration and season of immersion were particularly important in determining the species composition of the assemblages in the succession and colonization experiments, respectively. Production of water-borne propagules, including medusae, from the hydroids was observed from locally abundant colonies, among them the well-known fouling species Obelia dichotoma, potentially representing a nuisance for cultured fish through contact-driven envenomations and gill disorders. The results illustrate the potential importance of fouling hydroids and their medusae to the health of organisms in the aquaculture industry. PMID:29608614

[Determining factors of job-satisfaction: presence of work-family conflict in a sample of Italian nurses].

PubMed

Cortese, C G; Ghislieri, Chiara; Colombo, Lara

2008-01-01

Organization research has shown increasing interest in the dynamics of work-family conflict (w.f.c.). The NEXT study highlights that w.f.c. significantly influences satisfaction for one's job and the decision to quit the nursing profession. This study analyzes w.f.c. in a sample of Italian nurses, with the aim of examining the main differences in relation to personal variables, and understanding the degree to which w.f.c. explains job satisfaction. A self-reporting questionnaire was administered to 325 nurses in different hospitals of Northern Italy. Descriptive, reliability and Anova data analysis was performed. The relationships between variables were analyzed through correlations (Pearson's r); the role of w.f.c. in explaining job satisfaction was estimated via multiple regression. W.f.c. appeared to be more critical in subjects who had care responsibilities and in those who had more demanding work assignments. W.f.c. contributed to explaining job satisfaction, even if it was not its principal determining factor. This area of research appears to be important in that it leads to a better comprehension of the dynamics involved in work satisfaction and can suggest possible initiatives for support and development.

A prospective study of musculoskeletal outcomes among manufacturing workers: II. Effects of psychosocial stress and work organization factors.

PubMed

Gerr, Fredric; Fethke, Nathan B; Anton, Dan; Merlino, Linda; Rosecrance, John; Marcus, Michele; Jones, Michael P

2014-02-01

The aim of this study was to characterize associations between psychosocial and work organizational risk factors and upper-extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and disorders. Methodological limitations of previous studies of psychosocial and work organizational risk factors and musculoskeletal outcomes have produced inconsistent associations. In this prospective epidemiologic study of 386 workers, questionnaires to assess decision latitude ("control") and psychological job demands ("demand") were administered to study participants and were used to classify them into job strain "quadrants". Measures of job stress and job change were collected during each week of follow-up. Incident hand/arm and neck/shoulder symptoms and disorders were ascertained weekly. Associations between exposure measures and musculoskeletal outcomes were estimated with proportional hazard methods. When compared to the low-demand/high-control job strain referent category, large increases in risk of hand/arm disorders were observed for both high-demand/high-control (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [1.23, 16.4]) and high-demand/low-control job strain categories (HR = 5.18,95% CI = [1.39, 19.4]). Similar associations were observed for hand/arm symptoms. A strong association was also observed between the low-demand/low-control job strain category and neck/shoulder disorders (HR = 6.46, 95% CI = [1.46, 28.6]). Statistically significant associations were also observed between weekly stress level and weekly job change and several musculoskeletal outcomes. Associations between psychosocial risk factors and work organizational factors and musculoskeletal outcomes were large and in the hypothesized direction. Prevention of occupational musculoskeletal disorders may require attention to psychosocial and work organizational factors in addition to physical factors. Methods to control adverse effects of psychosocial and work organizational risk factors should be explored.

The impact of family factors on IQ in pediatric medically refractory epilepsy.

PubMed

Puka, Klajdi; Smith, Mary Lou; Widjaja, Elysa

2017-02-01

To evaluate whether family factors were associated with intellectual functioning among children with medically refractory epilepsy, and whether family factors moderate the relationship between patient/epilepsy-related variables and intellectual functioning. Children aged 4 to 18 years with medically refractory epilepsy who were evaluated for surgical candidacy were recruited. The authors assessed the association of intellectual quotient (IQ) with patient, epilepsy, and family factors. Family factors included parental education, household income, and validated parent-report measures of family functioning, family mastery and social support, and family demands. Univariable analyses showed that higher IQ scores were associated with an older age of epilepsy onset (β = .260, p = .009), fewer antiepileptic drugs (β = .248, p = .013), a shorter duration (β = .384, p < .001) and percentage of life with epilepsy (β = .419, p < .001), unilobar epileptogenic foci relative to multilobar foci (β = .274, p = .006), and lower family demands (β = .211, p = .035). In multivariable analysis, unilobar epileptogenic foci (p = .010) and a shorter percentage of life with epilepsy (p = .001) remained significant predictors of IQ. Exploratory moderation analyses found the relationship between the extent of epileptogenic foci and IQ to be moderated by family demands (p = .004); specifically, patients with unilobar epileptogenic onset had similar IQ scores irrespective of family demands, whereas patients with multilobar foci had lower IQ scores with increasing family demands. Family factors did not have a large impact on IQ among children with medically refractory epilepsy, although the moderating effect of family demands deserves further study. Epilepsy-related factors in this patient group may weaken the link between child IQ and family factors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influencemore » freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.« less

Application of dynamic traffic assignment to advanced managed lane modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

In this study, a demand estimation framework is developed for assessing the managed lane (ML) : strategies by utilizing dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) modeling, instead of the traditional : approaches that are based on the static traffic assignment...

A dynamic model of stress and sustained attention

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hancock, P. A.; Warm, Joel S.

1989-01-01

Arguments are presented that an integrated view of stress and performance must consider the task demanding a sustained attention as a primary source of cognitive stress. A dynamic model is developed on the basis of the concept of adaptability in both physiological and psychological terms, that addresses the effects of stress on vigilance and, potentially, a wide variety of attention-demanding performance tasks. The model provides an insight into the failure of an operator under the driving influences of stress and opens a number of potential avenues through which solutions to the complex challenge of stress and performance might be posed.

A tool for modeling concurrent real-time computation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, D. D.; Huang, Shie-Rei; Bhatt, Rahul; Sridharan, N. S.

1990-01-01

Real-time computation is a significant area of research in general, and in AI in particular. The complexity of practical real-time problems demands use of knowledge-based problem solving techniques while satisfying real-time performance constraints. Since the demands of a complex real-time problem cannot be predicted (owing to the dynamic nature of the environment) powerful dynamic resource control techniques are needed to monitor and control the performance. A real-time computation model for a real-time tool, an implementation of the QP-Net simulator on a Symbolics machine, and an implementation on a Butterfly multiprocessor machine are briefly described.

A hybrid system dynamics and optimization approach for supporting sustainable water resources planning in Zhengzhou City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Li, Chunhui; Wang, Xuan; Peng, Cong; Cai, Yanpeng; Huang, Weichen

2018-01-01

Problems with water resources restrict the sustainable development of a city with water shortages. Based on system dynamics (SD) theory, a model of sustainable utilization of water resources using the STELLA software has been established. This model consists of four subsystems: population system, economic system, water supply system and water demand system. The boundaries of the four subsystems are vague, but they are closely related and interdependent. The model is applied to Zhengzhou City, China, which has a serious water shortage. The difference between the water supply and demand is very prominent in Zhengzhou City. The model was verified with data from 2009 to 2013. The results show that water demand of Zhengzhou City will reach 2.57 billion m3 in 2020. A water resources optimization model is developed based on interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming. The objective of the model is to allocate water resources to each water sector and make the lowest cost under the minimum water demand. Using the simulation results, decision makers can easily weigh the costs of the system, the water allocation objectives, and the system risk. The hybrid system dynamics method and optimization model is a rational try to support water resources management in many cities, particularly for cities with potential water shortage and it is solidly supported with previous studies and collected data.

Revascularization and muscle adaptation to limb demand ischemia in diet-induced obese mice.

PubMed

Albadawi, Hassan; Tzika, A Aria; Rask-Madsen, Christian; Crowley, Lindsey M; Koulopoulos, Michael W; Yoo, Hyung-Jin; Watkins, Michael T

2016-09-01

Obesity and type 2 diabetes are major risk factors for peripheral arterial disease in humans, which can result in lower limb demand ischemia and exercise intolerance. Exercise triggers skeletal muscle adaptation including increased vasculogenesis. The goal of this study was to determine whether demand ischemia modulates revascularization, fiber size, and signaling pathways in the ischemic hind limb muscles of mice with diet-induced obesity (DIO). DIO mice (n = 7) underwent unilateral femoral artery ligation and recovered for 2 wks followed by 4 wks with daily treadmill exercise to induce demand ischemia. A parallel sedentary ischemia (SI) group (n = 7) had femoral artery ligation without exercise. The contralateral limb muscles of SI served as control. Muscles were examined for capillary density, myofiber cross-sectional area, cytokine levels, and phosphorylation of STAT3 and ERK1/2. Exercise significantly enhanced capillary density (P < 0.01) and markedly lowered cross-sectional area (P < 0.001) in demand ischemia compared with SI. These findings coincided with a significant increase in granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (P < 0.001) and interleukin-7 (P < 0.01) levels. In addition, phosphorylation levels of STAT3 and ERK1/2 (P < 0.01) were increased, whereas UCP1 and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 protein levels were lower (P < 0.05) without altering vascular endothelial growth factor and tumor necrosis factor alpha protein levels. Demand ischemia increased the PGC1α messenger RNA (P < 0.001) without augmenting PGC1α protein levels. Exercise-induced limb demand ischemia in the setting of DIO causes myofiber atrophy despite an increase in muscle capillary density. The combination of persistent increase in tumor necrosis factor alpha, lower vascular endothelial growth factor, and failure to increase PGC1α protein may reflect a deficient adaption to demand ischemia in DIO. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding the Long Run Determinants of Land Use in Global Crop Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldos, U. C.; Hertel, T. W.

2011-12-01

Cropland cover is expected to increase in the future given the projected growth on global demand for crops. Over the past century, crop demand has largely been driven by food demands, which were, in turn driven by a combination of rising population growth and increased per capita incomes, with the former dominating. However, with population growth slowing, and incomes rising more strongly in the developing world - where dietary upgrading is a significant factor - income growth has emerged as a relatively more significant driver of total food demand. At the same time, renewable energy policies across the world have introduced a new, dynamic element to the industrial demand for cropland. However, the drivers of long run cropland use are not limited to those directly related to crop demand. New trends suggest that crop yield growth may be slowing in critical breadbaskets around the world. In addition, some agricultural lands have been lost to urbanization and soil degradation. There is also a growing interest in setting aside land for biodiversity. Finally, there is considerable interest in terrestrial carbon sequestration which could place important new demands on the world's croplands. The co-existence of so many competing factors poses a challenge for properly assessing the long-run global supply and demand for croplands in 2050. In this paper, we quantify the contributions of each of these key drivers to the long-run global cropland use using a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture. To implement the model, we also construct a global database for key land use, agricultural and socio-economic variables from several sources. Our analysis starts with validation of the model over an historical period from 2001 up to 2007-05 (5 years). The model's prediction regarding cropland use is slightly lower than the observed change (+5.8% vs. +8.3%). Decomposition of the drivers of land use change shows that income growth (+3.9%) has a larger impact than population growth (+1.6%), biofuels (+0.2%) and urbanization (-0.3%). Technological change in crop, livestock and processed food production also have a modest impact on global cropland use over this historical period (+0.8%, -0.3% and +0.1%, respectively). We then turn our attention to projections of global land use over the coming decade. Here we project continued expansion in global cropland (13.7%). We then decompose the drivers of this projected change in land use. For example, if population grows at projected rates and yields grow at recent historical rates, then projected cropland use rises by just 1.7%. If we add urbanization, then global cropland use is slightly reduced (+1.5%). Because of the magnitude of the projected production targets, adding biofuels boosts global cropland use strongly (+4.2%) when added to the preceding factors. Adding technological change in the livestock and food processing sectors, as well as growth in per capita incomes boosts projected cropland use to 13.7%. In short, income growth is likely to be the critical driver of global cropland change in the future.

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic cigarette demand curve in adolescent smokers.

PubMed

Bidwell, L Cinnamon; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G; Tidey, Jennifer W; Colby, Suzanne M

2012-11-01

Behavioral economic demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption across a range of prices, have been used to assess motivation for a variety of drugs. Such curves generate multiple measures of drug demand that are associated with cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence. However, little is known about the relationships among these facets of demand. The aim of the study was to quantify these relationships in adolescent smokers by using exploratory factor analysis to examine the underlying structure of the facets of nicotine incentive value generated from a demand curve measure. Participants were 138 adolescent smokers who completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, which assessed estimated cigarette consumption at escalating levels of price/cigarette. Demand curves and five facets of demand were generated from the measure: Elasticity (i.e., 1/α or proportionate price sensitivity); Intensity (i.e., consumption at zero price); O(max) (i.e., maximum financial expenditure on cigarettes); P(max) (i.e., price at which expenditure is maximized); and Breakpoint (i.e., the price that suppresses consumption to zero). Principal components analysis was used to examine the latent structure among the variables. The results revealed a two-factor solution, which were interpreted as "Persistence," reflecting insensitivity to escalating price, and "Amplitude," reflecting the absolute levels of consumption and price. These findings suggest a two factor structure of nicotine incentive value as measured via a demand curve. If supported, these findings have implications for understanding the relationships among individual demand indices in future behavioral economic studies and may further contribute to understanding of the nature of cigarette reinforcement. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient On-Demand Operations in Large-Scale Infrastructures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ko, Steven Y.

2009-01-01

In large-scale distributed infrastructures such as clouds, Grids, peer-to-peer systems, and wide-area testbeds, users and administrators typically desire to perform "on-demand operations" that deal with the most up-to-date state of the infrastructure. However, the scale and dynamism present in the operating environment make it challenging to…

2010 Neuroscience Director’s Strategic Initiative

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

distribution unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Understanding how Soldiers’ cognitive abilities meet the increasing demands of dynamic...In order to acquire, monitor, and assess Soldier sensory, perceptual, emotional, cognitive , and physical performance within realistic operational...brain state classification algorithm from EEG data acquired from participants performing tasks with varied cognitive demands. Third, Kaleb McDowell

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - Pasadena calibration report : draft report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active transportation and demand management (ATDM) strategies. The primary pu...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bunzl, Martin

Dynamic pricing holds out the promise of shifting peak demand as well as reducing overall demand. But it also raises thorny issues of fairness. All practical pricing systems involve tradeoffs between equity and efficiency. I examine the circumstances under which equity ought to be allowed to trump efficiency and whether or not this constitutes a defense of flat pricing. (author)

Status on the Component Models Developed in the Modelica Framework: High-Temperature Steam Electrolysis Plant & Gas Turbine Power Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suk Kim, Jong; McKellar, Michael; Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.

This report has been prepared as part of an effort to design and build a modeling and simulation (M&S) framework to assess the economic viability of a nuclear-renewable hybrid energy system (N-R HES). In order to facilitate dynamic M&S of such an integrated system, research groups in multiple national laboratories have been developing various subsystems as dynamic physics-based components using the Modelica programming language. In fiscal year (FY) 2015, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) performed a dynamic analysis of two region-specific N-R HES configurations, including the gas-to-liquid (natural gas to Fischer-Tropsch synthetic fuel) and brackish water reverse osmosis desalination plants asmore » industrial processes. In FY 2016, INL has developed two additional subsystems in the Modelica framework: a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant and a gas turbine power plant (GTPP). HTSE has been proposed as a high priority industrial process to be integrated with a light water reactor (LWR) in an N-R HES. This integrated energy system would be capable of dynamically apportioning thermal and electrical energy (1) to provide responsive generation to the power grid and (2) to produce alternative industrial products (i.e., hydrogen and oxygen) without generating any greenhouse gases. A dynamic performance analysis of the LWR/HTSE integration case was carried out to evaluate the technical feasibility (load-following capability) and safety of such a system operating under highly variable conditions requiring flexible output. To support the dynamic analysis, the detailed dynamic model and control design of the HTSE process, which employs solid oxide electrolysis cells, have been developed to predict the process behavior over a large range of operating conditions. As first-generation N-R HES technology will be based on LWRs, which provide thermal energy at a relatively low temperature, complementary temperature-boosting technology was suggested for integration with the HTSE process that requires higher temperature input. Simulation results involving several case studies show that the suggested control scheme could maintain the controlled variables (including the steam utilization factor, cathode stream inlet composition, and temperatures of the process streams at various locations) within desired limits under various plant operating conditions. The results also indicate that the proposed HTSE plant could provide operational flexibility to participate in energy management at the utility scale by dynamically optimizing the use of excess plant capacity within an N-R HES. A natural-gas fired GTPP has been proposed as a secondary energy supply to be included in an N-R HES. This auxiliary generator could be used to cover rapid dynamics in grid demand that cannot be met by the remainder of the N-R HES. To evaluate the operability and controllability of the proposed process during transients between load (demand) levels, the dynamic model and control design were developed. Special attention was given to the design of feedback controllers to regulate the power frequency, and exhaust gas and turbine firing temperatures. Several case studies were performed to investigate the system responses to the major disturbance (power load demand) in such a control system. The simulation results show that the performance of the proposed control strategies was satisfactory under each test when the GTPP experienced high rapid variations in the load.« less

Opportunities for Automated Demand Response in California Wastewater Treatment Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aghajanzadeh, Arian; Wray, Craig; McKane, Aimee

Previous research over a period of six years has identified wastewater treatment facilities as good candidates for demand response (DR), automated demand response (Auto-­DR), and Energy Efficiency (EE) measures. This report summarizes that work, including the characteristics of wastewater treatment facilities, the nature of the wastewater stream, energy used and demand, as well as details of the wastewater treatment process. It also discusses control systems and automated demand response opportunities. Furthermore, this report summarizes the DR potential of three wastewater treatment facilities. In particular, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has collected data at these facilities from control systems, submetered processmore » equipment, utility electricity demand records, and governmental weather stations. The collected data were then used to generate a summary of wastewater power demand, factors affecting that demand, and demand response capabilities. These case studies show that facilities that have implemented energy efficiency measures and that have centralized control systems are well suited to shed or shift electrical loads in response to financial incentives, utility bill savings, and/or opportunities to enhance reliability of service. In summary, municipal wastewater treatment energy demand in California is large, and energy-­intensive equipment offers significant potential for automated demand response. In particular, large load reductions were achieved by targeting effluent pumps and centrifuges. One of the limiting factors to implementing demand response is the reaction of effluent turbidity to reduced aeration at an earlier stage of the process. Another limiting factor is that cogeneration capabilities of municipal facilities, including existing power purchase agreements and utility receptiveness to purchasing electricity from cogeneration facilities, limit a facility’s potential to participate in other DR activities.« less

Water quality modeling in the dead end sections of drinking water distribution networks.

PubMed

Abokifa, Ahmed A; Yang, Y Jeffrey; Lo, Cynthia S; Biswas, Pratim

2016-02-01

Dead-end sections of drinking water distribution networks are known to be problematic zones in terms of water quality degradation. Extended residence time due to water stagnation leads to rapid reduction of disinfectant residuals allowing the regrowth of microbial pathogens. Water quality models developed so far apply spatial aggregation and temporal averaging techniques for hydraulic parameters by assigning hourly averaged water demands to the main nodes of the network. Although this practice has generally resulted in minimal loss of accuracy for the predicted disinfectant concentrations in main water transmission lines, this is not the case for the peripheries of the distribution network. This study proposes a new approach for simulating disinfectant residuals in dead end pipes while accounting for both spatial and temporal variability in hydraulic and transport parameters. A stochastic demand generator was developed to represent residential water pulses based on a non-homogenous Poisson process. Dispersive solute transport was considered using highly dynamic dispersion rates. A genetic algorithm was used to calibrate the axial hydraulic profile of the dead-end pipe based on the different demand shares of the withdrawal nodes. A parametric sensitivity analysis was done to assess the model performance under variation of different simulation parameters. A group of Monte-Carlo ensembles was carried out to investigate the influence of spatial and temporal variations in flow demands on the simulation accuracy. A set of three correction factors were analytically derived to adjust residence time, dispersion rate and wall demand to overcome simulation error caused by spatial aggregation approximation. The current model results show better agreement with field-measured concentrations of conservative fluoride tracer and free chlorine disinfectant than the simulations of recent advection dispersion reaction models published in the literature. Accuracy of the simulated concentration profiles showed significant dependence on the spatial distribution of the flow demands compared to temporal variation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analyticalmore » models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

CASSIA--a dynamic model for predicting intra-annual sink demand and interannual growth variation in Scots pine.

PubMed

Schiestl-Aalto, Pauliina; Kulmala, Liisa; Mäkinen, Harri; Nikinmaa, Eero; Mäkelä, Annikki

2015-04-01

The control of tree growth vs environment by carbon sources or sinks remains unresolved although it is widely studied. This study investigates growth of tree components and carbon sink-source dynamics at different temporal scales. We constructed a dynamic growth model 'carbon allocation sink source interaction' (CASSIA) that calculates tree-level carbon balance from photosynthesis, respiration, phenology and temperature-driven potential structural growth of tree organs and dynamics of stored nonstructural carbon (NSC) and their modifying influence on growth. With the model, we tested hypotheses that sink demand explains the intra-annual growth dynamics of the meristems, and that the source supply is further needed to explain year-to-year growth variation. The predicted intra-annual dimensional growth of shoots and needles and the number of cells in xylogenesis phases corresponded with measurements, whereas NSC hardly limited the growth, supporting the first hypothesis. Delayed GPP influence on potential growth was necessary for simulating the yearly growth variation, indicating also at least an indirect source limitation. CASSIA combines seasonal growth and carbon balance dynamics with long-term source dynamics affecting growth and thus provides a first step to understanding the complex processes regulating intra- and interannual growth and sink-source dynamics. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Panel data models with spatial correlation: Estimation theory and an empirical investigation of the United States wholesale gasoline industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapoor, Mudit

The first part of my dissertation considers the estimation of a panel data model with error components that are both spatially and time-wise correlated. The dissertation combines widely used model for spatial correlation (Cliff and Ord (1973, 1981)) with the classical error component panel data model. I introduce generalizations of the generalized moments (GM) procedure suggested in Kelejian and Prucha (1999) for estimating the spatial autoregressive parameter in case of a single cross section. I then use those estimators to define feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedures for the regression parameters. I give formal large sample results concerning the consistency of the proposed GM procedures, as well as the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed feasible GLS procedures. The new estimators remain computationally feasible even in large samples. The second part of my dissertation employs a Cliff-Ord-type model to empirically estimate the nature and extent of price competition in the US wholesale gasoline industry. I use data on average weekly wholesale gasoline price for 289 terminals (distribution facilities) in the US. Data on demand factors, cost factors and market structure that affect price are also used. I consider two time periods, a high demand period (August 1999) and a low demand period (January 2000). I find a high level of competition in prices between neighboring terminals. In particular, price in one terminal is significantly and positively correlated to the price of its neighboring terminal. Moreover, I find this to be much higher during the low demand period, as compared to the high demand period. In contrast to previous work, I include for each terminal the characteristics of the marginal customer by controlling for demand factors in the neighboring location. I find these demand factors to be important during period of high demand and insignificant during the low demand period. Furthermore, I have also considered spatial correlation in unobserved factors that affect price. I find it to be high and significant only during the low demand period. Not correcting for it leads to incorrect inferences regarding exogenous explanatory variables.

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic marijuana demand curve.

PubMed

Aston, Elizabeth R; Farris, Samantha G; MacKillop, James; Metrik, Jane

2017-08-01

Drug demand, or relative value, can be assessed via analysis of behavioral economic purchase task performance. Five demand indices are typically obtained from drug purchase tasks. The goal of this research was to determine whether metrics of marijuana reinforcement from a marijuana purchase task (MPT) exhibit a latent factor structure that efficiently characterizes marijuana demand. Participants were regular marijuana users (n = 99; 37.4% female, 71.5% marijuana use days [5 days/week], 15.2% cannabis dependent) who completed study assessments, including the MPT, during a baseline session. Principal component analysis was used to examine the latent structure underlying MPT indices. Concurrent validity was assessed via examination of relationships between latent factors and marijuana use, past quit attempts, and marijuana expectancies. A two-factor solution was confirmed as the best fitting structure, accounting for 88.5% of the overall variance. Factor 1 (65.8% variance) reflected "Persistence," indicating sensitivity to escalating marijuana price, which comprised four MPT indices (elasticity, O max , P max , and breakpoint). Factor 2 (22.7% variance) reflected "Amplitude," indicating the amount consumed at unrestricted price (intensity). Persistence factor scores were associated with fewer past marijuana quit attempts and lower expectancies of negative use outcomes. Amplitude factor scores were associated with more frequent use, dependence symptoms, craving severity, and positive marijuana outcome expectancies. Consistent with research on alcohol and cigarette purchase tasks, the MPT can be characterized with a latent two-factor structure. Thus, demand for marijuana appears to encompass distinct dimensions of price sensitivity and volumetric consumption, with differential relations to other aspects of marijuana motivation.

Norwegian fjord sediments reveal NAO related winter temperature and precipitation changes of the past 2800 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Johan C.; Fabian, Karl; Milzer, Gesa; Giraudeau, Jacques; Knies, Jochen

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic region. Associated shifts of storm tracks, precipitation and temperature patterns affect energy supply and demand, fisheries and agricultural, as well as marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics. Long-term NAO records are crucial to better understand its response to climate forcing factors, and assess predictability and shifts associated with ongoing climate change. A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. Here we compare geochemical measurements with instrumental data and show that primary productivity recorded in central Norwegian fjord sediments is sensitive to NAO variability. This observation is used to calibrate paleoproductivity changes to a 500-year reconstruction of winter NAO (Luterbacher et al., 2001). Conditioned on a stationary relation between our climate proxy and the NAO we establish a first high resolution NAO proxy record (NAOTFJ) from marine sediments covering the past 2800 years. The NAOTFJ shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends. The here presented climate record shows that fjord sediments provide crucial information for an improved understanding of the linkages between atmospheric circulation, solar and oceanic forcing factors.

The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Hazel E.; Scaife, Adam A.; Hoskins, Brian J.; Brayshaw, David J.

2017-06-01

Wind power generation in Great Britain has increased markedly in recent years. However due to its intermittency its ability to provide power during periods of high electricity demand has been questioned. Here we characterise the winter relationship between electricity demand and the availability of wind power. Although a wide range of wind power capacity factors is seen for a given demand, the average capacity factor reduces by a third between low and high demand. However, during the highest demand average wind power increases again, due to strengthening easterly winds. The nature of the weather patterns affecting Great Britain are responsible for this relationship. High demand is driven by a range of high pressure weather types, each giving cold conditions, but variable wind power availability. Offshore wind power is sustained at higher levels and offers a more secure supply compared to that onshore. However, during high demand periods in Great Britain neighbouring countries may struggle to provide additional capacity due to concurrent low temperatures and low wind power availability.

Hydrogen use projections and supply options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manvi, R.; Fujita, T.

1976-01-01

Two projections of future hydrogen demand, based on the Ford technical fix and the Westinghouse nuclear electric economy energy supply and demand scenarios, are analyzed. It is suggested that hydrogen use will increase during the remainder of this century by at least a factor of five, and perhaps by a factor of twenty. Primary energy sources for producing hydrogen are discussed in terms of the transition from low to high demand for hydrogen.

The Role of Personal and Job Resources in the Relationship between Psychosocial Job Demands, Mental Strain, and Health Problems

PubMed Central

Mayerl, Hannes; Stolz, Erwin; Waxenegger, Anja; Rásky, Éva; Freidl, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Recent research highlights the importance of both job resources and personal resources in the job demands-resources model. However, the results of previous studies on how these resources are related to each other and how they operate in relation to the health-impairment process of the job demands-resources model are ambiguous. Thus, the authors tested an alternative model, considering job and personal resources to be domains of the same underlying factor and linking this factor to the health-impairment process. Survey data of two Austrian occupational samples (N1 = 8657 and N2 = 9536) were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that job and personal resources can be considered as indicators of a single resources factor which was negatively related to psychosocial job demands, mental strain, and health problems. Confirming previous studies, we further found that mental strain mediated the relationship between psychosocial job demands and health problems. Our findings suggest that interventions aimed at maintaining health in the context of work may take action on three levels: (1) the prevention of extensive job demands, (2) the reduction of work-related mental strain, and (3) the strengthening of resources. PMID:27582717

Views of Health System Experts on Macro Factors of Induced Demand

PubMed Central

Khorasani, Elahe; Keyvanara, Mahmoud; Karimi, Saeed; Jazi, Marzie Jafarian

2014-01-01

Background: The probability and severity of effects of induced demand are because of the interaction between a range of factors that can affect physicians and patients behavior. It is also affected by the laws of the markets and organizational arrangements for medical services. This article studies major factors that affect the phenomenon of induced demand with the use of experts’ experiences of the Isfahan University of Medical Sciences. Methods: The research is applied a qualitative method. Semi-structured interview was used for data generation. Participants in this study were people who had been informed in this regard and had to be experienced and were known as experts. Purposive sampling was done for data saturation. Seventeen people were interviewed and criteria such as data “reliability of information” and stability were considered. The anonymity of the interviewees was preserved. The data are transcribed, categorized and then used the thematic analysis. Results: In this study, thematic analysis was conducted, and 77 sub-themes and 3 themes were extracted respectively. The three main themes include infrastructural factors, social factors, and organizational structural factors affecting induced demand. Each of these also has some sub-themes. Conclusions: Results of this research present a framework for analyzing the major causes of induced demand. The causes identified here include complexity of medicine, information mismatch between service providers and consumers, clinical uncertainty, false beliefs, advertisements, insufficient supervision, scarcity of clinical guidelines, weakness of education system, and ignorance of medical ethics. These findings help policymakers to investigate the induced demand phenomenon clear-sighted. PMID:25400888

Age-Related Changes in Dynamic Postural Control and Attentional Demands are Minimally Affected by Local Muscle Fatigue

PubMed Central

Remaud, Anthony; Thuong-Cong, Cécile; Bilodeau, Martin

2016-01-01

Normal aging results in alterations in the visual, vestibular and somtaosensory systems, which in turn modify the control of balance. Muscle fatigue may exacerbate these age-related changes in sensory and motor functions, and also increase the attentional demands associated with dynamic postural control. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of aging on dynamic postural control and posture-related attentional demands before and after a plantar flexor fatigue protocol. Participants (young adults: n = 15; healthy seniors: n = 13) performed a dynamic postural task along the antero-posterior (AP) and the medio-lateral (ML) axes, with and without the addition of a simple reaction time (RT) task. The dynamic postural task consisted in following a moving circle on a computer screen with the representation of the center of pressure (COP). This protocol was repeated before and after a fatigue task where ankle plantar flexor muscles were targeted. The mean COP-target distance and the mean COP velocity were calculated for each trial. Cross-correlation analyses between the COP and target displacements were also performed. RTs were recorded during dual-task trials. Results showed that while young adults adopted an anticipatory control mode to move their COP as close as possible to the target center, seniors adopted a reactive control mode, lagging behind the target center. This resulted in longer COP-target distance and higher COP velocity in the latter group. Concurrently, RT increased more in seniors when switching from static stance to dynamic postural conditions, suggesting potential alterations in the central nervous system (CNS) functions. Finally, plantar flexor muscle fatigue and dual-tasking had only minor effects on dynamic postural control of both young adults and seniors. Future studies should investigate why the fatigue-induced changes in quiet standing postural control do not seem to transfer to dynamic balance tasks. PMID:26834626

Examining Projected Changes in Weather & Air Quality Extremes Between 2000 & 2030 using Dynamical Downscaling

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change may alter regional weather extremes resulting in a range of environmental impacts including changes in air quality, water quality and availability, energy demands, agriculture, and ecology. Dynamical downscaling simulations were conducted with the Weather Research...

Dynamic Models of the U.S. Automobile Fleet

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-08-01

The report examines some of the dynamic properties of the automobile fleet. The focus is not on new-car demand, but rather on the overall behavior of the system. Relationships derived from previous studies have been incorporated and integrated in a s...

The transcription factor titration effect dictates level of gene expression.

PubMed

Brewster, Robert C; Weinert, Franz M; Garcia, Hernan G; Song, Dan; Rydenfelt, Mattias; Phillips, Rob

2014-03-13

Models of transcription are often built around a picture of RNA polymerase and transcription factors (TFs) acting on a single copy of a promoter. However, most TFs are shared between multiple genes with varying binding affinities. Beyond that, genes often exist at high copy number-in multiple identical copies on the chromosome or on plasmids or viral vectors with copy numbers in the hundreds. Using a thermodynamic model, we characterize the interplay between TF copy number and the demand for that TF. We demonstrate the parameter-free predictive power of this model as a function of the copy number of the TF and the number and affinities of the available specific binding sites; such predictive control is important for the understanding of transcription and the desire to quantitatively design the output of genetic circuits. Finally, we use these experiments to dynamically measure plasmid copy number through the cell cycle. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics and rural poverty.

PubMed

Fong, M S

1985-01-01

An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle. "The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs. (summary in FRE, ITA) excerpt

Climate change impacts on food system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

Escalation: How Much is Enough?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butts, Glenn

2007-01-01

Determining the escalation percentage to an estimate is often the subject of fierce debate. Cost increases are determined by dynamic relati onships between many factors, including acts of nature, interest rate s, oil prices, global commodity markets, wars, wage rates, and the ov erall health of the economy, as well as supply and demand for the required goods or services. How much escalation is enough? Are the recen t price increases temporary aberrations, or will they continue to pla gue us? This paper examines historical escalation rates, as well as i ndications of trends. Various analysis methods -- Monte Carlo simulations, neural networks, trend impact analysis, and the Delphi method -- are examined in an attempt to determine future trends.

Correlated electron-nuclear dynamics with conditional wave functions.

PubMed

Albareda, Guillermo; Appel, Heiko; Franco, Ignacio; Abedi, Ali; Rubio, Angel

2014-08-22

The molecular Schrödinger equation is rewritten in terms of nonunitary equations of motion for the nuclei (or electrons) that depend parametrically on the configuration of an ensemble of generally defined electronic (or nuclear) trajectories. This scheme is exact and does not rely on the tracing out of degrees of freedom. Hence, the use of trajectory-based statistical techniques can be exploited to circumvent the calculation of the computationally demanding Born-Oppenheimer potential-energy surfaces and nonadiabatic coupling elements. The concept of the potential-energy surface is restored by establishing a formal connection with the exact factorization of the full wave function. This connection is used to gain insight from a simplified form of the exact propagation scheme.

Systems Modelling of the Socio-Technical Aspects of Residential Electricity Use and Network Peak Demand.

PubMed

Lewis, Jim; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Bell, John; Morris, Peter; Ledwich, Gerard

2015-01-01

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers' peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers' location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price, managed supply, etc., in a conceptual 'map' of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tickbox interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Systems Modelling of the Socio-Technical Aspects of Residential Electricity Use and Network Peak Demand

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jim; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Bell, John; Morris, Peter; Ledwich, Gerard

2015-01-01

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price, managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tickbox interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments. PMID:26226511

"Going solid": a model of system dynamics and consequences for patient safety

PubMed Central

Cook, R; Rasmussen, J

2005-01-01



 Rather than being a static property of hospitals and other healthcare facilities, safety is dynamic and often on short time scales. In the past most healthcare delivery systems were loosely coupled—that is, activities and conditions in one part of the system had only limited effect on those elsewhere. Loose coupling allowed the system to buffer many conditions such as short term surges in demand. Modern management techniques and information systems have allowed facilities to reduce inefficiencies in operation. One side effect is the loss of buffers that previously accommodated demand surges. As a result, situations occur in which activities in one area of the hospital become critically dependent on seemingly insignificant events in seemingly distant areas. This tight coupling condition is called "going solid". Rasmussen's dynamic model of risk and safety can be used to formulate a model of patient safety dynamics that includes "going solid" and its consequences. Because the model addresses the dynamic aspects of safety, it is particularly suited to understanding current conditions in modern healthcare delivery and the way these conditions may lead to accidents. PMID:15805459

Research on Generating Method of Embedded Software Test Document Based on Dynamic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, MingCheng; Wu, XiangHu; Tao, YongChao; Liu, Ying

2018-03-01

This paper provides a dynamic model-based test document generation method for embedded software that provides automatic generation of two documents: test requirements specification documentation and configuration item test documentation. This method enables dynamic test requirements to be implemented in dynamic models, enabling dynamic test demand tracking to be easily generated; able to automatically generate standardized, standardized test requirements and test documentation, improved document-related content inconsistency and lack of integrity And other issues, improve the efficiency.

Molecular simulation of disjoining-pressure isotherms for free liquid , Lennard-Jones thin films

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhatt, Divesh; Newman, John; Radke, C.J.

2001-10-01

We present canonical-ensemble molecular-dynamics simulations of disjoining-pressure isotherms in Lennard-Jones free liquid films. Thermodynamics demands that the disjoining pressure is determined uniquely as a function of the chemical potential purely from the phase diagram of the fluid. Our results from molecular dynamics validate this argument. The inverse-sixth-power distance term in the Lennard-Jones intermolecular potential represents van der Waals dispersion forces. Hence, we compare our results with classical Hamaker theory that is based on dispersion forces but assumes a slab geometry for the density profile and completely neglects fluid structure and entropy. We find that the Hamaker constant obtained from ourmore » simulations is about an order of magnitude larger than that from classical theory. To investigate the origin of this discrepancy, we calculate the disjoining-pressure isotherm using a density-functional theory relaxing the inherent assumptions in the Hamaker theory and imparting to the fluid an approximate structure. For disjoining pressure as a function of chemical potential, the results of density-functional theory and molecular dynamics are very close. Even for disjoining-pressure isotherms, and the subsequently calculated Hamaker constant, results of the density-functional theory are closer to the molecular-dynamics simulations by about a factor of 4 compared to Hamaker theory. [References: 44]« less

EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT WARM-UP PROGRAMS ON GOLF PERFORMANCE IN ELITE MALE GOLFERS

PubMed Central

Macfarlane, Alison

2012-01-01

Background: The physical demands required of the body to execute a shot in golf are enormous. Current evidence suggests that warm-up involving static stretching is detrimental to immediate performance in golf as opposed to active dynamic stretching. However the effect of resistance exercises during warm-up before golf on immediate performance is unknown. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the effects of three different warm-up programs on immediate golf performance. Methods: Fifteen elite male golfers completed three different warm-up programs over three sessions on non-consecutive days. After each warm-up program each participant hit ten maximal drives with the ball flight and swing analyzed with Flightscope® to record maximum club head speed (MCHS), maximal driving distance (MDD), driving accuracy (DA), smash factor (SF) and consistent ball strike (CBS). Results: Repeated measures ANOVA tests showed statistically significant difference within 3 of the 5 factors of performance (MDD, CBS and SF). Subsequently, a paired t-test then showed statistically significant (p<0.05) improvements occurred in each of these three factors in the group performing a combined active dynamic and functional resistance (FR) warm-up as opposed to either the active dynamic (AD) warm-up or the combined AD with weights warm-up (WT). There were no statistically significant differences observed between the AD warm-up and the WT warm-up for any of the five performance factors and no statistical significant difference between any of the warm-ups for maximum clubhead speed (MCHS) and driving accuracy (DA). Conclusion: Performing a combined AD and FR warm up with Theraband® leads to significant increase in immediate performance of certain factors of the golf drive compared to performing an AD warm-up by itself or a combined AD with WT warm-up. No significant difference was observed between the three warm-up groups when looking at immediate effect on driving accuracy or maximum club head speed. The addition of functional resistance activities to active dynamic stretching has immediate benefits to elite male golfers in relation to some factors of their performance. Level of Evidence: This study is a Quantitative Experimental design using repeated measures and multiple crossovers. It cannot be classified using the descriptive level of evidence. PMID:23936749

Monitoring Changes of Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand Pattern in Central and Southern Liaoning Urban Agglomerations, China Using Landsat Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, B.; Huang, F.; Chang, S.; Qi, H.; Zhai, H.

2018-04-01

Indentifying the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem services supply and demand and the driving forces is of great significance to the regional ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development. Due to long term and high-intensity development, the ecological environment in central and southern Liaoning urban agglomerations has been greatly destroyed thereafter has restricted sustainable development in this region. Based on Landsat ETM and OLI images, land use of this urban agglomeration in 2005, 2010 and 2015 was extracted. The integrative index of multiple-ecosystem services (IMES) was used to quantify the supply (IMESs), demand (IMESd) and balance (IMESb) of multiple-ecosystem services, The spatial patterns of ecosystem services and its dynamics for the period of 2005-2015 were revealed. The multiple regression and stepwise regression analysis were used to explore relationships between ecosystem services and socioeconomic factors. The results showed that the IMESs of the region increased by 2.93 %, whereas IMESd dropped 38 %. The undersupplied area was reduced to 2. The IMESs and IMESb were mainly negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), population density, foreign investment and industrial output, while GDP per capita and the number of teachers had significant positive impacts on ecosystem services supply. The positive correlation between IMESd and GDP, population density and foreign investment were found. The ecosystem services models were established. Supply and balance of multiple-ecosystem services were positively correlated with population density, but the demand was the opposite. The results can provide some reference value for the coordinately economic and ecological development in the study area.

Interactive lesion segmentation with shape priors from offline and online learning.

PubMed

Shepherd, Tony; Prince, Simon J D; Alexander, Daniel C

2012-09-01

In medical image segmentation, tumors and other lesions demand the highest levels of accuracy but still call for the highest levels of manual delineation. One factor holding back automatic segmentation is the exemption of pathological regions from shape modelling techniques that rely on high-level shape information not offered by lesions. This paper introduces two new statistical shape models (SSMs) that combine radial shape parameterization with machine learning techniques from the field of nonlinear time series analysis. We then develop two dynamic contour models (DCMs) using the new SSMs as shape priors for tumor and lesion segmentation. From training data, the SSMs learn the lower level shape information of boundary fluctuations, which we prove to be nevertheless highly discriminant. One of the new DCMs also uses online learning to refine the shape prior for the lesion of interest based on user interactions. Classification experiments reveal superior sensitivity and specificity of the new shape priors over those previously used to constrain DCMs. User trials with the new interactive algorithms show that the shape priors are directly responsible for improvements in accuracy and reductions in user demand.

Fatigue management in the workplace

PubMed Central

Sadeghniiat-Haghighi, Khosro; Yazdi, Zohreh

2015-01-01

Workers’ fatigue is a significant problem in modern industry, largely because of high demand jobs, long duty periods, disruption of circadian rhythms, and accumulative sleep debt that are common in many industries. Fatigue is the end result of integration of multiple factors such as time awake, time of day, and workload. Then, the full understanding of circadian biologic clock, dynamics of transient and cumulative sleep loss, and recovery is required for effective management of workplace fatigue. It can be more investigated in a new field of sleep medicine called occupational sleep medicine. Occupational sleep medicine is concerned with maintaining best productivity and safety in the industrial settings. The fatigue risk management system (FRMS) is a comprehensive approach that is based on applying scientific evidence of sleep knowledge to manage workers fatigue. It is developing rapidly in the highly safety demand jobs; especially truck drivers, pilots, and power plant workers. The objective of this review is to explain about fatigue in the workplace with emphasis on its association work performance and errors/accidents. Also, we discussed about different methods of fatigue measurement and management. PMID:26257477

“Almost invisible scars”: medical tourism to Brazil.

PubMed

Edmonds, Alexander

2011-01-01

Along with a handful of other nations in the developing world, Brazil has emerged as a top destination for medical tourism. Drawing on the author's ethnographic fieldwork in plastic surgery wards, this article examines diverse factors - some explicitly promoted in medical marketing and news sources, others less visible - contributing to Brazil's international reputation for excellence in cosmetic plastic surgery. Brazil's plastic surgery residency programs, some of which are housed within its public health system, attract overseas surgeons, provide ample opportunities for valuable training in cosmetic techniques, and create a clinical environment that favors experimentation with innovative techniques. Many graduates of these programs open private clinics that, in turn, attract overseas patients. High demand for Brazilian plastic surgery also reflects an expansive notion of female health that includes sexual realization, mental health, and cosmetic techniques that manage reproduction. Medical tourism is sometimes represented as being market-driven: patients in wealthier nations travel to obtain quality services at lower prices. This article ends by reflecting on how more complex local and transnational dynamics also contribute to demand for elective medical procedures such as cosmetic surgery.

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

PubMed

Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

2018-05-01

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The effect of sudden server breakdown on the performance of a disassembly line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udomsawat, Gun; Gupta, Surendra M.

2005-11-01

Product and material recovery relies on the disassembly process to separate target components or materials from the end-of-life (EOL) products. Disassembly line is especially effective when products in large quantity are disassembled. Unlike an assembly line, a disassembly line is more complex and is subjected to numerous uncertainties including stochastic and multi-level arrivals of component demands, stochastic arrival times for EOL products, and process interruption due to equipment failure. These factors seriously impair the control mechanism in the disassembly line. A common production control mechanism is the traditional push system (TPS). TPS responds to the aforementioned complications by carrying substantial amounts of inventories. An alternative control mechanism is a newly developed multi-kanban pull system (MKS) that relies on dynamic routing of kanbans, which tends to minimize the system's inventories while maintaining demand serviceability. In this paper we explore the impact of sudden breakdown of server on the performance of a disassembly line. We compare the overall performances of the TPS and MKS by considering two scenarios. We present the solution procedure and results for these cases.

Dynamic replanning on demand of UAS constellations performing ISR missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stouch, Daniel W.; Zeidman, Ernest; Callahan, William; McGraw, Kirk

2011-05-01

Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have proven themselves to be indispensable in providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) over the battlefield. Constellations of heterogeneous, multi-purpose UAS are being tasked to provide ISR in an unpredictable environment. This necessitates the dynamic replanning of critical missions as weather conditions change, new observation targets are identified, aircraft are lost or equipment malfunctions, and new airspace restrictions are introduced. We present a method to generate coordinated mission plans for constellations of UAS with multiple flight goals and potentially competing objectives, and update them on demand as the operational situation changes. We use a fast evolutionary algorithm-based, multi-objective optimization technique. The updated flight routes maintain continuity by considering where the ISR assets have already flown and where they still need to go. Both the initial planning and replanning take into account factors such as area of analysis coverage, restricted operating zones, maximum control station range, adverse weather effects, military terrain value, and sensor performance. Our results demonstrate that by constraining the space of potential solutions using an intelligently-formed air maneuver network with a subset of potential airspace corridors and navigational waypoints, we can ensure global optimization for multiple objectives considering the situation both before and after the replanning is initiated. We employ sophisticated visualization techniques using a geographic information system to help the user 'look under the hood" of the algorithms to understand the effectiveness and viability of the generated ISR mission plans and identify potential gaps in coverage.

Modeling HIV/AIDS Drug Price Determinants in Brazil: Is Generic Competition a Myth?

PubMed Central

Meiners, Constance; Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Hasenclever, Lia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2011-01-01

Background Brazil became the first developing country to guarantee free and universal access to HIV/AIDS treatment, with antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) being delivered to nearly 190,000 patients. The analysis of ARV price evolution and market dynamics in Brazil can help anticipate issues soon to afflict other developing countries, as the 2010 revision of the World Health Organization guidelines shifts demand towards more expensive treatments, and, at the same time, current evolution of international legislation and trade agreements on intellectual property rights may reduce availability of generic drugs for HIV care. Methods and Findings Our analyses are based on effective prices paid for ARV procurement in Brazil between 1996 and 2009. Data panel structure was exploited to gather ex-ante and ex-post information and address various sources of statistical bias. In-difference estimation offered in-depth information on ARV market characteristics which significantly influence prices. Although overall ARV prices follow a declining trend, changing characteristics in the generic segment help explain recent increase in generic ARV prices. Our results show that generic suppliers are more likely to respond to factors influencing demand size and market competition, while originator suppliers tend to set prices strategically to offset compulsory licensing threats and generic competition. Significance In order to guarantee the long term sustainability of access to antiretroviral treatment, our findings highlight the importance of preserving and stimulating generic market dynamics to sustain developing countries' bargaining power in price negotiations undertaken with originator companies. PMID:21858138

Modeling HIV/AIDS drug price determinants in Brazil: is generic competition a myth?

PubMed

Meiners, Constance; Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Hasenclever, Lia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2011-01-01

Brazil became the first developing country to guarantee free and universal access to HIV/AIDS treatment, with antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) being delivered to nearly 190,000 patients. The analysis of ARV price evolution and market dynamics in Brazil can help anticipate issues soon to afflict other developing countries, as the 2010 revision of the World Health Organization guidelines shifts demand towards more expensive treatments, and, at the same time, current evolution of international legislation and trade agreements on intellectual property rights may reduce availability of generic drugs for HIV care. Our analyses are based on effective prices paid for ARV procurement in Brazil between 1996 and 2009. Data panel structure was exploited to gather ex-ante and ex-post information and address various sources of statistical bias. In-difference estimation offered in-depth information on ARV market characteristics which significantly influence prices. Although overall ARV prices follow a declining trend, changing characteristics in the generic segment help explain recent increase in generic ARV prices. Our results show that generic suppliers are more likely to respond to factors influencing demand size and market competition, while originator suppliers tend to set prices strategically to offset compulsory licensing threats and generic competition. In order to guarantee the long term sustainability of access to antiretroviral treatment, our findings highlight the importance of preserving and stimulating generic market dynamics to sustain developing countries' bargaining power in price negotiations undertaken with originator companies.

HIV Testing among Adolescents in Ndola, Zambia: How Individual, Relational, and Environmental Factors Relate to Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denison, Julie A.; McCauley, Ann P.; Dunnett-Dagg, Wendy A.; Lungu, Nalakwanji; Sweat, Michael D.

2009-01-01

This study examined how individual, relational and environmental factors related to adolescent demand for HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT). A cross-sectional survey among randomly selected 16-19-year-olds in Ndola, Zambia, covered individual (e.g., HIV knowledge), environmental (e.g., distance), and relational factors (e.g., discussed…

Emergency material allocation with time-varying supply-demand based on dynamic optimization method for river chemical spills.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Wang, Peng

2018-04-13

Aiming to minimize the damage caused by river chemical spills, efficient emergency material allocation is critical for an actual emergency rescue decision-making in a quick response. In this study, an emergency material allocation framework based on time-varying supply-demand constraint is developed to allocate emergency material, minimize the emergency response time, and satisfy the dynamic emergency material requirements in post-accident phases dealing with river chemical spills. In this study, the theoretically critical emergency response time is firstly obtained for the emergency material allocation system to select a series of appropriate emergency material warehouses as potential supportive centers. Then, an enumeration method is applied to identify the practically critical emergency response time, the optimum emergency material allocation and replenishment scheme. Finally, the developed framework is applied to a computational experiment based on south-to-north water transfer project in China. The results illustrate that the proposed methodology is a simple and flexible tool for appropriately allocating emergency material to satisfy time-dynamic demands during emergency decision-making. Therefore, the decision-makers can identify an appropriate emergency material allocation scheme in a balance between time-effective and cost-effective objectives under the different emergency pollution conditions.

Meeting reproductive demands in a dynamic upwelling system: foraging strategies of a pursuit-diving seabird, the marbled murrelet

Treesearch

M. Zachariah Peery; Scott H. Newman; Curt D. Storlazzi; Steven R. Beissinger

2009-01-01

Seabirds maintain plasticity in their foraging behavior to cope with energy demands and foraging constraints that vary over the reproductive cycle, but behavioral studies comparing breeding and nonbreeding individuals are rare. Here we characterize how Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) adjust their foraging effort in response to changes...

The impact of changing technology on the demand for air transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

1978-01-01

Demand models for air transportation that are sensitive to the impact of changing technology were developed. The models are responsive to potential changes in technology, and to changing economic, social, and political factors as well. In addition to anticipating the wide differences in the factors influencing the demand for long haul and short haul air travel, the models were designed to clearly distinguish among the unique features of these markets.

Could the organ shortage ever be met?

PubMed

Levitt, Mairi

2015-01-01

The organ shortage is commonly presented as having a clear solution, increase the number of organs donated and the problem will be solved. In the light of the Northern Ireland Assembly's consultation on moving to an opt-out organ donor register this article focuses on the social factors and complexities which impact strongly on both the supply of, and demand for, transplantable organs. Judging by the experience of other countries presumed consent systems may or may not increase donations but have not met demand. Donation rates have risen considerably in all parts of the UK recently but there is also an increasing demand for organs. Looking at international donation rates and attitudes, future demand for organs and education on donation, the question is whether the organ shortage could ever be met. The increase in longevity, in rates of diabetes and obesity and in alcohol related liver disease all contribute both to increased demand for transplants, and re-transplants, and a reduction in the number of usable organs. It is unlikely that demand could ever be met, since, if supply was unlimited, the focus would move to financial resources and competing demands on the health care budget in a publicly funded health system. These factors point to the need to focus on ways of reducing, or at least stabilizing, demand where lifestyle factors contribute to the underlying disease.

Operational characterisation of requirements and early validation environment for high demanding space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barro, E.; Delbufalo, A.; Rossi, F.

1993-01-01

The definition of some modern high demanding space systems requires a different approach to system definition and design from that adopted for traditional missions. System functionality is strongly coupled to the operational analysis, aimed at characterizing the dynamic interactions of the flight element with its surrounding environment and its ground control segment. Unambiguous functional, operational and performance requirements are to be defined for the system, thus improving also the successive development stages. This paper proposes a Petri Nets based methodology and two related prototype applications (to ARISTOTELES orbit control and to Hermes telemetry generation) for the operational analysis of space systems through the dynamic modeling of their functions and a related computer aided environment (ISIDE) able to make the dynamic model work, thus enabling an early validation of the system functional representation, and to provide a structured system requirements data base, which is the shared knowledge base interconnecting static and dynamic applications, fully traceable with the models and interfaceable with the external world.

Dynamic spectrum management: an impact on EW systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gajewski, P.; Łopatka, J.; Suchanski, M.

2017-04-01

Rapid evolution of wireless systems caused an enormous growth of data streams transmitted through the networks and, as a consequence, an accompanying demand concerning spectrum resources (SR). An avoidance of advisable disturbances is one of the main demands in military communications. To solve the interference problems, dynamic spectrum management (DSM) techniques can be used. Two main techniques are possible: centralized Coordinated Dynamic Spectrum Access (CDSA) and distributed Opportunistic Spectrum Access (OSA). CDSA enables the wireless networks planning automation, and systems dynamic reaction to random changes of Radio Environment (RE). For OSA, cognitive radio (CR) is the most promising technology that enables avoidance of interference with the other spectrum users due to CR's transmission parameters adaptation to the current radio situation, according to predefined Radio Policies rules. If DSM techniques are used, the inherent changes in EW systems are also needed. On one hand, new techniques of jamming should be elaborated, on the other hand, the rules and protocols of cooperation between communication network and EW systems should be developed.

Psychosocial work factors and sleep problems: findings from the French national SIP survey.

PubMed

Chazelle, Emilie; Chastang, Jean-François; Niedhammer, Isabelle

2016-04-01

This study aimed at exploring the cross-sectional and prospective associations between psychosocial work factors and sleep problems. The study population consisted of a national representative sample of the French working population (SIP survey). The sample sizes were 7506 and 3555 for the cross-sectional and prospective analyses. Sleep problems were defined by either sleep disturbances or insufficient sleep duration at least several times a week. Psychosocial work factors included classical (job strain model factors) and emergent factors (recognition, insecurity, role/ethical conflict, emotional demands, work-life imbalance, etc.). Occupational factors related to working time/hours and physical work environment were also included as well as covariates related to factors outside work. Statistical analyses were performed using weighted Poisson regression analysis. In the cross-sectional analyses, psychological demands, low social support, low recognition, emotional demands, perception of danger, work-life imbalance and night work were found to be associated with sleep problems. In the prospective analyses, psychological demands and night work were predictive of sleep problems. Using a less conservative method, more factors were found to be associated with sleep problems. Dose-response associations were observed, showing that the more frequent the exposure to these factors, the higher the risk of sleep problems. No effect of repeated exposure was found on sleep problems. Classical and emergent psychosocial work factors were associated with sleep problems. More prospective studies and prevention policies may be needed.

Developing a Psychometric Instrument to Measure Physical Education Teachers' Job Demands and Resources.

PubMed

Zhang, Tan; Chen, Ang

2017-01-01

Based on the job demands-resources model, the study developed and validated an instrument that measures physical education teachers' job demands-resources perception. Expert review established content validity with the average item rating of 3.6/5.0. Construct validity and reliability were determined with a teacher sample ( n = 397). Exploratory factor analysis established a five-dimension construct structure matching the theoretical construct deliberated in the literature. The composite reliability scores for the five dimensions range from .68 to .83. Validity coefficients (intraclass correlational coefficients) are .69 for job resources items and .82 for job demands items. Inter-scale correlational coefficients range from -.32 to .47. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the construct validity with high dimensional factor loadings (ranging from .47 to .84 for job resources scale and from .50 to .85 for job demands scale) and adequate model fit indexes (root mean square error of approximation = .06). The instrument provides a tool to measure physical education teachers' perception of their working environment.

Dynamic Monitoring of Energy Services in Conflict Regions using Suomi-NPP VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, E.; Roman, M. O.

2015-12-01

While remote sensing data has proven useful for understanding the environmental conditions surrounding conflict, it can also present a more nuanced, dynamic picture inside conflict zones. This study investigates the use of global nighttime environmental products as derived from the Suomi-NPP satellite's Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to identify and track the location and timing of regional conflicts in the Middle East as reflected in changes to the region's energy infrastructure. The study focuses on a 43-month period (c. Jan 2012 - Aug 2015) over major urban centers in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, and Lebanon. The new daily dynamic products captured a series of striking downturns in energy service supply and demand that occurred in 2012 in the Syrian cities of Damascus (-50%) and Aleppo (-94%) corresponding to the onset of major military confrontations (The Battle of Aleppo on 7/15/2012 and The Damascus Bombing on 7/23/2012, respectively). Iraqi cities recently captured by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (e.g. Mosul, Tikrit, Tal Afor, Ramadi), also showed marked average decreases in energy service provision (-84% since 4/1/2014) compared to their unoccupied counterparts (e.g., Baghdad and Sulaimaniya at +6%). A seasonal trend decomposition analysis is used to disentangle climactic, social, and political factors affecting the VIIRS time-series, distinguishing between energy patterns associated with conflict and those associated with cultural festivals, load shedding, seasonal weather, and socioeconomic factors.

Glucose supply and insulin demand dynamics of antidiabetic agents.

PubMed

Monte, Scott V; Schentag, Jerome J; Adelman, Martin H; Paladino, Joseph A

2010-03-01

For microvascular outcomes, there is compelling historical and contemporary evidence for intensive blood glucose reduction in patients with either type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). There is also strong evidence to support macrovascular benefit with intensive blood glucose reduction in T1DM. Similar evidence remains elusive for T2DM. Because cardiovascular outcome trials utilizing conventional algorithms to attain intensive blood glucose reduction have not demonstrated superiority to less aggressive blood glucose reduction (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes; Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation; and Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial), it should be considered that the means by which the blood glucose is reduced may be as important as the actual blood glucose. By identifying quantitative differences between antidiabetic agents on carbohydrate exposure (CE), hepatic glucose uptake (HGU), hepatic gluconeogenesis (GNG), insulin resistance (IR), peripheral glucose uptake (PGU), and peripheral insulin exposure (PIE), we created a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model to characterize the effect of the agents on the glucose supply and insulin demand dynamic. Glucose supply was defined as the cumulative percentage decrease in CE, increase in HGU, decrease in GNG, and decrease in IR, while insulin demand was defined as the cumulative percentage increase in PIE and PGU. With the glucose supply and insulin demand effects of each antidiabetic agent summated, the glucose supply (numerator) was divided by the insulin demand (denominator) to create a value representative of the glucose supply and insulin demand dynamic (SD ratio). Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (1.25), metformin (2.20), and thiazolidinediones (TZDs; 1.25-1.32) demonstrate a greater effect on glucose supply (SD ratio >1), while secretagogues (0.69-0.81), basal insulins (0.77-0.79), and bolus insulins (0.62-0.67) demonstrate a greater effect on insulin demand (SD ratio <1). Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors, metformin, and TZDs demonstrate a greater effect on glucose supply, while secretagogues, basal insulin, and bolus insulin demonstrate a greater effect on insulin demand. Because T2DM cardiovascular outcome trials have not demonstrated macrovascular benefit with more aggressive blood glucose reduction when using conventional algorithms that predominantly focus on insulin demand, it would appear logical to consider a model that incorporates both the extent of blood glucose lowering (hemoglobin A1c) and the means by which the blood glucose was reduced (SD ratio) when considering macrovascular outcomes. (c) 2010 Diabetes Technology Society.

Integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) and circulating fluidized bed (CFB) power plants - final results of the COMBO-CFB project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suojanen, Suvi; Hakkarainen, Elina; Kettunen, Ari; Kapela, Jukka; Paldanius, Juha; Tuononen, Minttu; Selek, Istvan; Kovács, Jenö; Tähtinen, Matti

2017-06-01

Hybridization of solar energy together with another energy source is an option to provide heat and power reliably on demand. Hybridization allows decreasing combustion related fuel consumption and emissions, assuring stable grid connection and cutting costs of concentrated solar power technology due to shared power production equipment. The research project "Integration of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) Power Plants" (COMBO-CFB) has been carried out to investigate the technical possibilities and limitations of the concept. The main focus was on the effect of CSP integration on combustion dynamics and on the joint power cycle, and on the interactions of subsystems. The research provides new valuable experimental data and knowhow about dynamic behaviour of CFB combustion under boundary conditions of the hybrid system. Limiting factors for maximum solar share in different hybridization schemes and suggestions for enhancing the performance of the hybrid system are derived.

Amplified Sensitivity of Nitrogen-Vacancy Spins in Nanodiamonds Using All-Optical Charge Readout.

PubMed

Hopper, David A; Grote, Richard R; Parks, Samuel M; Bassett, Lee C

2018-04-23

Nanodiamonds containing nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers offer a versatile platform for sensing applications spanning from nanomagnetism to in vivo monitoring of cellular processes. In many cases, however, weak optical signals and poor contrast demand long acquisition times that prevent the measurement of environmental dynamics. Here, we demonstrate the ability to perform fast, high-contrast optical measurements of charge distributions in ensembles of NV centers in nanodiamonds and use the technique to improve the spin-readout signal-to-noise ratio through spin-to-charge conversion. A study of 38 nanodiamonds with sizes ranging between 20 and 70 nm, each hosting a small ensemble of NV centers, uncovers complex, multiple time scale dynamics due to radiative and nonradiative ionization and recombination processes. Nonetheless, the NV-containing nanodiamonds universally exhibit charge-dependent photoluminescence contrasts and the potential for enhanced spin readout using spin-to-charge conversion. We use the technique to speed up a T 1 relaxometry measurement by a factor of 5.

An optimal adder-based hardware architecture for the DCT/SA-DCT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinane, Andrew; Muresan, Valentin; O'Connor, Noel

2005-07-01

The explosive growth of the mobile multimedia industry has accentuated the need for ecient VLSI implemen- tations of the associated computationally demanding signal processing algorithms. This need becomes greater as end-users demand increasingly enhanced features and more advanced underpinning video analysis. One such feature is object-based video processing as supported by MPEG-4 core profile, which allows content-based in- teractivity. MPEG-4 has many computationally demanding underlying algorithms, an example of which is the Shape Adaptive Discrete Cosine Transform (SA-DCT). The dynamic nature of the SA-DCT processing steps pose significant VLSI implementation challenges and many of the previously proposed approaches use area and power consumptive multipliers. Most also ignore the subtleties of the packing steps and manipulation of the shape information. We propose a new multiplier-less serial datapath based solely on adders and multiplexers to improve area and power. The adder cost is minimised by employing resource re-use methods. The number of (physical) adders used has been derived using a common sub-expression elimination algorithm. Additional energy eciency is factored into the design by employing guarded evaluation and local clock gating. Our design implements the SA-DCT packing with minimal switching using ecient addressing logic with a transpose mem- ory RAM. The entire design has been synthesized using TSMC 0.09µm TCBN90LP technology yielding a gate count of 12028 for the datapath and its control logic.

Global Oil: Relax, the End Is Not Near

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, W. L.

2004-12-01

Global oil production will peak within the next 25 to 30 years, but peaking will be a function of demand, not supply, as the methane economy comes into full play. Analysts who predict near-term peaking of global oil production generally use some variant of Hubbert's symmetrical life cycle method. The amount of ultimately recoverable oil is assumed to be known and peaking will occur when half that amount is exhausted. In reality, ultimate recovery volumes are not known, but estimated, and estimates vary by a factor of two; production profiles are not necessarily symmetrical. Further assumptions are that the resource base is inelastic, not significantly expandable through technology and new concepts. The historical experience is quite to the contrary. Projections of near-term peaking ignore or discount field reserve growth, the most dynamic element in reserve additions of the past 25 years and one with the future potential equal to that of new field discovery. Future global demand for oil will likely amount to between 1.5 to 2.0 trillion barrels, well within the more realistic estimates of global recovery volumes. The real challenge is not oil, but natural gas where future global demand will likely exceed 25,000 trillion cubic feet. But it too will be met in sufficient volumes to bring us into the hydrogen economy some 50 to 60 years from now.

The Effects of Realism in Learning with Dynamic Visualizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheiter, Katharina; Gerjets, Peter; Huk, Thomas; Imhof, Birgit; Kammerer, Yvonne

2009-01-01

Two experiments are reported that investigated the relative effectiveness of a realistic dynamic visualization as opposed to a schematic visualization for learning about cell replication (mitosis). In Experiment 1, 37 university students watched either realistic or schematic visualizations. Students' subjective task demands ratings as well as…

Chromophore-Dependent Intramolecular Exciton-Vibrational Coupling in the FMO Complex: Quantification and Importance for Exciton Dynamics.

PubMed

Padula, Daniele; Lee, Myeong H; Claridge, Kirsten; Troisi, Alessandro

2017-11-02

In this paper, we adopt an approach suitable for monitoring the time evolution of the intramolecular contribution to the spectral density of a set of identical chromophores embedded in their respective environments. We apply the proposed method to the Fenna-Matthews-Olson (FMO) complex, with the objective to quantify the differences among site-dependent spectral densities and the impact of such differences on the exciton dynamics of the system. Our approach takes advantage of the vertical gradient approximation to reduce the computational demands of the normal modes analysis. We show that the region of the spectral density that is believed to strongly influence the exciton dynamics changes significantly in the timescale of tens of nanoseconds. We then studied the impact of the intramolecular vibrations on the exciton dynamics by considering a model of FMO in a vibronic basis and neglecting the interaction with the environment to isolate the role of the intramolecular exciton-vibration coupling. In agreement with the assumptions in the literature, we demonstrate that high frequency modes at energy much larger than the excitonic energy splitting have negligible influence on exciton dynamics despite the large exciton-vibration coupling. We also find that the impact of including the site-dependent spectral densities on exciton dynamics is not very significant, indicating that it may be acceptable to apply the same spectral density on all sites. However, care needs to be taken for the description of the exciton-vibrational coupling in the low frequency part of intramolecular modes because exciton dynamics is more susceptible to low frequency modes despite their small Huang-Rhys factors.

Market-based demand forecasting promotes informed strategic financial planning.

PubMed

Beech, A J

2001-11-01

Market-based demand forecasting is a method of estimating future demand for a healthcare organization's services by using a broad range of data that describe the nature of demand within the organization's service area. Such data include the primary and secondary service areas, the service-area populations by various demographic groupings, discharge utilization rates, market size, and market share by service line and organizationwide. Based on observable market dynamics, strategic planners can make a variety of explicit assumptions about future trends regarding these data to develop scenarios describing potential future demand. Financial planners then can evaluate each scenario to determine its potential effect on selected financial and operational measures, such as operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt-service coverage, and develop a strategic financial plan that covers a range of contingencies.

Dynamics Behaviors of Scale-Free Networks with Elastic Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan-Lai; Sun, Hui-Jun; Wu, Jian-Jun

Many real-world networks, such as transportation networks and Internet, have the scale-free properties. It is important to study the bearing capacity of such networks. Considering the elastic demand condition, we analyze load distributions and bearing capacities with different parameters through artificially created scale-free networks. The simulation results show that the load distribution follows a power-law form, which means some ordered pairs, playing the dominant role in the transportation network, have higher demand than other pairs. We found that, with the decrease of perceptual error, the total and average ordered pair demand will decrease and then stay in a steady state. However, with the increase of the network size, the average demand of each ordered pair will decrease, which is particularly interesting for the network design problem.

The spatial and temporal shifts of biofuel production in the ecosystem-level carbon and water dynamics in the central plains of US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, P.; Brunsell, N. A.

2011-12-01

The grasslands of the central plains US are the leading producer of wheat, sorghum and a significant amount of corn and soybean. By linking the food production and energy cycles, increasing demand for ethanol, biodiesel, and food, not only regional ecosystems are altered by the influences of Land-Use Land-Cover (LULC), but it is also a challenge for us to gain more knowledge about the carbon balance on fuel and food. In order to ascertain the impacts of changing LULC on carbon and water dynamics, more specifically, to examine the impacts of altering current land cover to increase biofuel production in this region, we used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and precipitation record for the period from 1982 to 2003 to show the temporal dynamics associated with different landcover types as a function of location along the mean precipitation gradient; and then employed Biome-BGC model to estimate key carbon fluxes and storage pools associated with each of the different landcover classes, as well as the fluxes resulting from landcover changes. Results show an increasing trend of NDVI is from the west to the east, which agreed with the spatial distribution of precipitation, however due to some of LULC types are grown by irrigation, precipitation is not the main effect for vegetation development in west portion. However, overall within the study area, indicated by the temporal distributed plots of wavelet analysis for NDVI and precipitation, vegetation dynamics is obviously affected by long-term regional climatic factors, i.e. precipitation, not by short-term or individual local factors instead. On the other hand, by inputting actual land cover and interpolated meteorological data, as well as important ecosystem variables that govern carbon dynamics, we can better define the impacts of biofuel productions; moreover, this ecosystem carbon cycling simulation by Bio-BGC model illustrates that the extent of those landcover responses depend not only on the rate of changes in local environmental factors, but also on site-specific conditions such as regional climate and soil depth.

Where does the waiting list begin? A short review of the dynamics and organization of modern waiting lists.

PubMed

Rotstein, Dalia L; Alter, David A

2006-06-01

Waiting for medical care is the by-product of system rationing, where demand exceeds supply. In this short report we expand on the conventional concept of the queue, by focusing on the regulation of demand and by incorporating a funnel and spout analogy. Real-world examples are used to illustrate the infancy of funnel or demand-side reform initiatives targeting the queue, and the suggestion is made that policy needs to address the concept of 'waiting' much earlier in the treatment cycle.

Efforts to monitor Global progress on individual and community demand for immunization: Development of definitions and indicators for the Global Vaccine Action Plan Strategic Objective 2.

PubMed

Hickler, Benjamin; MacDonald, Noni E; Senouci, Kamel; Schuh, Holly B

2017-06-16

The Second Strategic Objective of the Global Vaccine Action Plan, "individuals and communities understand the value of vaccines and demand immunization as both their right and responsibility", differs from the other five in that it does not focus on supply-side aspects of immunization programs but rather on public demand for vaccines and immunization services. This commentary summarizes the work (literature review, consultations with experts, and with potential users) and findings of the UNICEF/World Health Organization Strategic Objective 2 informal Working Group on Vaccine Demand, which developed a definition for demand and indicators related to Strategic Objective 2. Demand for vaccines and vaccination is a complex concept that is not external to supply systems but rather encompasses the interaction between human behaviors and system structure and dynamics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Comparison of opportunities to respond and generation effect as potential causal mechanisms for incremental rehearsal with multiplication combinations.

PubMed

Zaslofsky, Anne F; Scholin, Sarah E; Burns, Matthew K; Varma, Sashank

2016-04-01

Incremental rehearsal (IR) is an intervention with demonstrated effectiveness in increasing retention of information, yet little is known about how specific intervention components contribute to the intervention's effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to further the theoretical understanding of the intervention by comparing the effects of opportunities to respond (OTR) and generation demand on retention of multiplication combinations. Using a between subject 2 × 2 factorial design, 103 4th and 5th grade students were taught seven multiplication combinations using one of four versions of IR that orthogonally varied OTR (high versus low) and generation demands (high versus low). A two-way ANOVA revealed main effects for OTR, generation demands, and an interaction of the two factors. The effect of generation demands was large (d=1.31), whereas the overall effect of OTR was moderate (d=0.66). Critically, the two factors interacted, with the largest learning gains observed when OTR and generation demands were both high. The results of this study suggest that generation demand is an important factor in the effectiveness of rehearsal interventions. Copyright © 2016 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vocational Education and the Changing Demand of the World of Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Masri, Munther W.

The role of vocational education and training (VET) in the context of the dynamic and changing demands of the world of work is explored through a more comprehensive approach to the overall system of human resources development (HRD). HRD is the concern of both educationists and economists. To an educationist, HRD should first be human and then…

Faculty Life at Community Colleges: The Perspective of Women with Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolf-Wendel, Lisa; Ward, Kelly; Twombly, Susan B.

2007-01-01

This article explores the dynamics of how female faculty members at 2-year colleges balance the demands of their faculty jobs with motherhood. Results suggest that the community college appears to be a place that offers women the opportunity to balance their interests in teaching at the postsecondary level with the demands of having a family. This…

How to Shift Power to Learners: Encouraging FE Dynamism, Replacing Centralised Procurement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolf, Alison

2010-01-01

This monograph discusses how to make England's further education (FE) system genuinely responsive to learner demand, as well as stable, affordable, and of high quality. It looks at how a demand-driven system can be organised and funded, at what is required of governments, and what can be left to learners themselves and to the education and…

Validated Predictions of Metabolic Energy Consumption for Submaximal Effort Movement

PubMed Central

Tsianos, George A.; MacFadden, Lisa N.

2016-01-01

Physical performance emerges from complex interactions among many physiological systems that are largely driven by the metabolic energy demanded. Quantifying metabolic demand is an essential step for revealing the many mechanisms of physical performance decrement, but accurate predictive models do not exist. The goal of this study was to investigate if a recently developed model of muscle energetics and force could be extended to reproduce the kinematics, kinetics, and metabolic demand of submaximal effort movement. Upright dynamic knee extension against various levels of ergometer load was simulated. Task energetics were estimated by combining the model of muscle contraction with validated models of lower limb musculotendon paths and segment dynamics. A genetic algorithm was used to compute the muscle excitations that reproduced the movement with the lowest energetic cost, which was determined to be an appropriate criterion for this task. Model predictions of oxygen uptake rate (VO2) were well within experimental variability for the range over which the model parameters were confidently known. The model's accurate estimates of metabolic demand make it useful for assessing the likelihood and severity of physical performance decrement for a given task as well as investigating underlying physiologic mechanisms. PMID:27248429

Validation of the Japanese version of the job crafting scale.

PubMed

Eguchi, Hisashi; Shimazu, Akihito; Bakker, Arnold B; Tims, Maria; Kamiyama, Kimika; Hara, Yujiro; Namba, Katsuyuki; Inoue, Akiomi; Ono, Masakatsu; Kawakami, Norito

2016-06-16

The aim of this study was to validate the Japanese version of the job crafting scale (JCS-J). JCS measures four independent job crafting dimensions, namely increasing structural job resources, decreasing hindering job demands, increasing social job resources, and increasing challenging job demands. The translated and back-translated JCS-J questionnaires were administered online to 972 employees of a Japanese manufacturing company. The data were then divided into independent explorative and confirmative samples. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were performed to evaluate the factorial validity of JCS-J. The relationship with potential consequences of job crafting (e.g., job demands, job resources, and psychological well-being) was investigated to evaluate construct validity. Internal consistency was examined to evaluate the reliability of the four JCSs. An exploratory factor analysis extracted a five-factor solution. Decreasing hindering job demands was further split into two separate dimensions supporting a five- rather than four-factor structure. A series of confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the modified five-factor model that allows covariance between items fits the data best. Construct validity was generally supported by the expected correlations of each job crafting dimension with each corresponding job resource (+), job demand (+), and psychological well-being (+). Cronbach's α coefficient was sufficient for each of the four dimensions of job crafting (α ranged between 0.76 and 0.90). This study confirmed that JCS-J is an adequate measure of job crafting that can be used in the Japanese context.

Validation of the Japanese version of the job crafting scale

PubMed Central

Eguchi, Hisashi; Shimazu, Akihito; Bakker, Arnold B.; Tims, Maria; Kamiyama, Kimika; Hara, Yujiro; Namba, Katsuyuki; Inoue, Akiomi; Ono, Masakatsu; Kawakami, Norito

2016-01-01

Objectives: The aim of this study was to validate the Japanese version of the job crafting scale (JCS-J). JCS measures four independent job crafting dimensions, namely increasing structural job resources, decreasing hindering job demands, increasing social job resources, and increasing challenging job demands. Methods: The translated and back-translated JCS-J questionnaires were administered online to 972 employees of a Japanese manufacturing company. The data were then divided into independent explorative and confirmative samples. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were performed to evaluate the factorial validity of JCS-J. The relationship with potential consequences of job crafting (e.g., job demands, job resources, and psychological well-being) was investigated to evaluate construct validity. Internal consistency was examined to evaluate the reliability of the four JCSs. Results: An exploratory factor analysis extracted a five-factor solution. Decreasing hindering job demands was further split into two separate dimensions supporting a five- rather than four-factor structure. A series of confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the modified five-factor model that allows covariance between items fits the data best. Construct validity was generally supported by the expected correlations of each job crafting dimension with each corresponding job resource (+), job demand (+), and psychological well-being (+). Cronbach's α coefficient was sufficient for each of the four dimensions of job crafting (α ranged between 0.76 and 0.90). Conclusions: This study confirmed that JCS-J is an adequate measure of job crafting that can be used in the Japanese context. PMID:27108643

An integrated system model for evaluating the impact of the dynamic ICC toll policy on the regional network mobility.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-12-01

Road pricing has been advocated as an efficient travel demand management to alleviate congestion since the : seminal work by Pigou (1920) and Knight (1924) (see Lindsey, 2006, for recent reviews). More specifically, dynamic : toll pricing has receive...

Dynamic Strategic Planning in a Professional Knowledge-Based Organization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olivarius, Niels de Fine; Kousgaard, Marius Brostrom; Reventlow, Susanne; Quelle, Dan Grevelund; Tulinius, Charlotte

2010-01-01

Professional, knowledge-based institutions have a particular form of organization and culture that makes special demands on the strategic planning supervised by research administrators and managers. A model for dynamic strategic planning based on a pragmatic utilization of the multitude of strategy models was used in a small university-affiliated…

A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Whan-Seon

2013-06-01

Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

Joint Real-Time Energy and Demand-Response Management using a Hybrid Coalitional-Noncooperative Game

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Fulin; Gu, Yi; Hao, Jun

In order to model the interactions among utility companies, building demands and renewable energy generators (REGs), a hybrid coalitional-noncooperative game framework has been proposed. We formulate a dynamic non-cooperative game to study the energy dispatch within multiple utility companies, while we take a coalitional perspective on REGs and buildings demands through a hedonic coalition formation game approach. In this case, building demands request different power supply from REGs, then the building demands can be organized into an ultimate coalition structure through a distributed hedonic shift algorithm. At the same time, utility companies can also obtain a stable power generation profile.more » In addition, the interactive progress among the utility companies and building demands which cannot be supplied by REGs is implemented by distributed game theoretic algorithms. Numerical results illustrate that the proposed hybrid coalitional-noncooperative game scheme reduces the cost of both building demands and utility companies compared with the initial scene.« less

Occupational factors and subsequent major depressive and generalized anxiety disorders in the prospective French national SIP study.

PubMed

Niedhammer, Isabelle; Malard, Lucile; Chastang, Jean-François

2015-02-28

The literature has been extensive on the associations between psychosocial work factors and mental health. Nevertheless, the studies using prospective design, various concepts and more than one measurement point in time for these factors and diagnostic interview to assess mental disorders remain seldom in the literature. This study is an attempt to fill the gap in this topic. The study was based on a national representative sample of 4717 workers of the French working population (SIP survey), interviewed in 2006 and reinterviewed again in 2010 and free of mental disorders at baseline. Psychosocial work factors, measured in both 2006 and 2010, included: psychological demands, decision latitude, social support, reward, emotional demands, role conflict, ethical conflict, tensions with the public, job insecurity and work-life imbalance. Other occupational factors related to working time/hours and physical work environment were also studied. Major depressive (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorders (GAD) were measured using a standardised diagnostic interview (MINI). Covariates were age, occupation, marital status, having a child under 3 y, social support outside work and stressful life events. Multivariate analyses were performed using weighted logistic regression models. Using models taking all occupational factors into account simultaneously, low reward and job insecurity predicted MDD. Psychological demands, low reward, emotional demands and job insecurity were predictive of GAD. The more frequent the exposure to job insecurity, the higher the risk of MDD and GAD, and the more frequent the exposure to psychological demands and low reward, the higher the risk of GAD. No effect was observed for repeated exposure to occupational factors. Classical and emergent psychosocial work factors were predictive factors of depression and anxiety with dose-response associations in terms of frequency of exposure. More attention may be needed on emergent psychosocial work factors and frequent exposure to these factors.

A window into occupant-driven energy outcomes: Leveraging sub-metering infrastructure to examine psychosocial factors driving long-term outcomes of short-term competition-based energy interventions

DOE PAGES

Konis, Kyle; Orosz, Michael; Sintov, Nicole

2016-01-07

Competition-based “energy saving” interventions are increasingly promoted as an effective strategy for reducing energy consumption in buildings with large occupant controlled electrical loads. However, the factors that drive energy savings in such interventions are not well understood, nor are the impacts of short-term competitions on long-term energy performance. A total of 39 8-occupant suites in a freshman residence hall were instrumented with “smart” electric meters, which recorded circuit-level electricity consumption at 15-minute intervals. During a three-week Fall 2014 competition, suites competed to reduce their overall electricity demand and achieved a 6.4% reduction in whole-building demand overall and a 12% reductionmore » during hours of peak demand (from 12:00 to 19:00), despite peak seasonal temperatures and all-time record electricity demand. Analysis incorporating weather-normalized HVAC demand after the competition showed a significant “rebound” for a large portion of the suites (19), however 12 suites made further reductions, and the remainder maintained demand at the competition level. As a result, we compared energy data with self-reported survey data and identified self-efficacy beliefs, pro-environmental behaviors, and sense of affiliation with other residents of the hall as key factors distinguishing the suites with the greatest and most persistent reductions in demand from suites that maintained or increased demand.« less

Factor structure and longitudinal measurement invariance of the demand control support model: an evidence from the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH).

PubMed

Chungkham, Holendro Singh; Ingre, Michael; Karasek, Robert; Westerlund, Hugo; Theorell, Töres

2013-01-01

To examine the factor structure and to evaluate the longitudinal measurement invariance of the demand-control-support questionnaire (DCSQ), using the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH). A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) models within the framework of structural equation modeling (SEM) have been used to examine the factor structure and invariance across time. Four factors: psychological demand, skill discretion, decision authority and social support, were confirmed by CFA at baseline, with the best fit obtained by removing the item repetitive work of skill discretion. A measurement error correlation (0.42) between work fast and work intensively for psychological demands was also detected. Acceptable composite reliability measures were obtained except for skill discretion (0.68). The invariance of the same factor structure was established, but caution in comparing mean levels of factors over time is warranted as lack of intercept invariance was evident. However, partial intercept invariance was established for work intensively. Our findings indicate that skill discretion and decision authority represent two distinct constructs in the retained model. However removing the item repetitive work along with either work fast or work intensively would improve model fit. Care should also be taken while making comparisons in the constructs across time. Further research should investigate invariance across occupations or socio-economic classes.

Factor Structure and Longitudinal Measurement Invariance of the Demand Control Support Model: An Evidence from the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH)

PubMed Central

Chungkham, Holendro Singh; Ingre, Michael; Karasek, Robert; Westerlund, Hugo; Theorell, Töres

2013-01-01

Objectives To examine the factor structure and to evaluate the longitudinal measurement invariance of the demand-control-support questionnaire (DCSQ), using the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH). Methods A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) models within the framework of structural equation modeling (SEM) have been used to examine the factor structure and invariance across time. Results Four factors: psychological demand, skill discretion, decision authority and social support, were confirmed by CFA at baseline, with the best fit obtained by removing the item repetitive work of skill discretion. A measurement error correlation (0.42) between work fast and work intensively for psychological demands was also detected. Acceptable composite reliability measures were obtained except for skill discretion (0.68). The invariance of the same factor structure was established, but caution in comparing mean levels of factors over time is warranted as lack of intercept invariance was evident. However, partial intercept invariance was established for work intensively. Conclusion Our findings indicate that skill discretion and decision authority represent two distinct constructs in the retained model. However removing the item repetitive work along with either work fast or work intensively would improve model fit. Care should also be taken while making comparisons in the constructs across time. Further research should investigate invariance across occupations or socio-economic classes. PMID:23950957

Job Demand and Job Resources related to the turnover intention of public health nurses: An analysis using a Job Demands-Resources model.

PubMed

Iguchi, Aya

2016-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to investigate the job demands and job resources of public health nurses based on the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model, and to build a model that can estimate turnover intention based on job demands and job resources.Method By adding 12 items to the existing questionnaire, the author created a questionnaire consisting of 10 factors and 167 items, and used statistical analysis to examine job demands and job resources in relation to turnover intention.Results Out of 2,668 questionnaires sent, 1993 (72.5%) were returned. Considering sex-based differences in occupational stress, I analyzed women's answers in 1766 (66.2%) mails among the 1798 valid responses. The average age of respondents was 41.0±9.8 years, and the mean service duration was 17.0±10.0 years. For public health nurses, there was a turnover intention of 9.2%. The "job demands" section consisted of 29 items and 10 factors, while the "job resources" section consisted of 54 items and 22 factors. The result of examining the structure of job demands and job resources, leading to turnover intention was supported by the JD-R model. Turnover intention was strong and the Mental Component Summary (MCS) is low in those who had many job demands and few job resources (experiencing 'burn-out'). Enhancement of work engagement and turnover intention was weak in those who had many job resources. This explained approximately 60% of the dispersion to "burn-out", and approximately 40% to "work engagement", with four factors: work suitability, work significance, positive work self-balance, and growth opportunity of job resources.Conclusion This study revealed that turnover intention is strong in those who are burned out because of many job demands. Enhancement of work engagement and turnover intention is weak in those with many job resources. This suggests that suitable staffing and organized efforts to raise awareness of job significance are effective in reducing turnover intention.

The dynamic simulation of the Progetto Energia combined cycle power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giglio, R.; Cerabolini, M.; Pisacane, F.

1996-12-31

Over the next four years, the Progetto Energia project is building several cogeneration plants to satisfy the increasing demands of Italy`s industrial complex and the country`s demand for electrical power. Located at six different sites within Italy`s borders these Combined Cycle Cogeneration Plants will supply a total of 500 MW of electricity and 100 tons/hr of process steam to Italian industries and residences. To ensure project success, a dynamic model of the 50 MW base unit was developed. The goal established for the model was to predict the dynamic behavior of the complex thermodynamic system in order to assess equipmentmore » performance and control system effectiveness for normal operation and, more importantly, abrupt load changes. In addition to fulfilling its goals, the dynamic study guided modifications to controller logic that significantly improved steam drum pressure control and bypassed steam de-superheating performance. Simulations of normal and abrupt transient events allowed engineers to define optimum controller gain coefficients. The paper discusses the Combined Cycle plant configuration, its operating modes and control system, the dynamic model representation, the simulation results and project benefits.« less

Current drivers and future directions of global livestock disease dynamics

PubMed Central

Perry, Brian D.; Grace, Delia; Sones, Keith

2013-01-01

We review the global dynamics of livestock disease over the last two decades. Our imperfect ability to detect and report disease hinders assessment of trends, but we suggest that, although endemic diseases continue their historic decline in wealthy countries, poor countries experience static or deteriorating animal health and epidemic diseases show both regression and expansion. At a mesolevel, disease is changing in terms of space and host, which is illustrated by bluetongue, Lyme disease, and West Nile virus, and it is also emerging, as illustrated by highly pathogenic avian influenza and others. Major proximate drivers of change in disease dynamics include ecosystem change, ecosystem incursion, and movements of people and animals; underlying these are demographic change and an increasing demand for livestock products. We identify three trajectories of global disease dynamics: (i) the worried well in developed countries (demanding less risk while broadening the circle of moral concern), (ii) the intensifying and market-orientated systems of many developing countries, where highly complex disease patterns create hot spots for disease shifts, and (iii) the neglected cold spots in poor countries, where rapid change in disease dynamics is less likely but smallholders and pastoralists continue to struggle with largely preventable and curable livestock diseases. PMID:21576468

Integrated modelling to assess long-term water supply capacity of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment.

PubMed

Collet, Lila; Ruelland, Denis; Borrell-Estupina, Valérie; Dezetter, Alain; Servat, Eric

2013-09-01

Assessing water supply capacity is crucial to meet stakeholders' needs, notably in the Mediterranean region. This region has been identified as a climate change hot spot, and as a region where water demand is continuously increasing due to population growth and the expansion of irrigated areas. The Hérault River catchment (2500 km(2), France) is a typical example and a negative trend in discharge has been observed since the 1960s. In this context, local stakeholders need first to understand the processes controlling the evolution of water resources and demands in the past to latter evaluate future water supply capacity and anticipate the tensions users could be confronted to in the future. A modelling framework is proposed at a 10-day time step to assess whether water resources have been able to meet water demands over the last 50 years. Water supply was evaluated using hydrological modelling and a dam management model. Water demand dynamics were estimated for the domestic and agricultural sectors. A water supply capacity index is computed to assess the extent and the frequency to which water demand has been satisfied at the sub-basin scale. Simulated runoff dynamics were in good agreement with observations over the calibration and validation periods. Domestic water demand has increased considerably since the 1980s and is characterized by a seasonal peak in summer. Agricultural demand has increased in the downstream sub-basins and decreased upstream where irrigated areas have decreased. As a result, although most water demands were satisfied between 1961 and 1980, irrigation requirements in summer have sometimes not been satisfied since the 1980s. This work is the first step toward evaluating possible future changes in water allocation capacity in the catchment, using future climate change, dam management and water use scenarios. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How to optimize tourism destination supply: A case in Shanghai from perspective of supplier and demand side perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Huaju; Fang, Chengjiang

2018-02-01

It is vital to assess the regional tourist supply capability by suppliers and demand groups. The supply side’s evaluation of the regional supply capacity determines the direction of the supply investment in future, the demand side’s evaluation indicates their satisfaction degree of the destination supply and also effects their revisit the tourism destination. Therefore, the assessment of the supply and demand sides is an important reference for the reform of destination supply side, which helps us find the shortage of the destination supply factors and optimize tourism destination supply promptly. This paper through investigating tourism supply and demand groups in Shanghai, used the survey data and constructed tourism supply optimization model, analyzed the current situation of tourism supply factors in Shanghai. Results showed that the environment of Shanghai should be improved first, including improving urban air and water quality, up-grading public sanitation and increasing urban green coverage. Other supply factors improved priority were information and marketing, we should improve the information consultation of scenic spots, increase the intensity of tourism promotion and provide more free travel publicity brochures.

On-demand microbicide products: design matters.

PubMed

Patel, Sravan Kumar; Rohan, Lisa Cencia

2017-12-01

Sexual intercourse (vaginal and anal) is the predominant mode of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. Topical microbicides used in an on-demand format (i.e., immediately before or after sex) can be part of an effective tool kit utilized to prevent sexual transmission of HIV. The effectiveness of prevention products is positively correlated with adherence, which is likely to depend on user acceptability of the product. The development of an efficacious and acceptable product is therefore paramount for the success of an on-demand product. Acceptability of on-demand products (e.g., gels, films, and tablets) and their attributes is influenced by a multitude of user-specific factors that span behavioral, lifestyle, socio-economic, and cultural aspects. In addition, physicochemical properties of the drug, anatomical and physiological aspects of anorectal and vaginal compartments, issues relating to large-scale production, and cost can impact product development. These factors together with user preferences determine the design space of an effective, acceptable, and feasible on-demand product. In this review, we summarize the interacting factors that together determine product choice and its target product profile.

Successional dynamics drive tropical forest nutrient limitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, C.; Hedin, L. O. O.

2017-12-01

It is increasingly recognized that nutrients such as N and P may significantly constrain the land carbon sink. However, we currently lack a complete understanding of these nutrient cycles in forest ecosystems and how to incorporate them into Earth System Models. We have developed a framework of dynamic forest nutrient limitation, focusing on the role of secondary forest succession and canopy gap disturbances as bottlenecks of high plant nutrient demand and limitation. We used succession biomass data to parameterize a simple ecosystem model and examined the dynamics of nutrient limitation throughout tropical secondary forest succession. Due to the patterns of biomass recovery in secondary tropical forests, we found high nutrient demand from rapid biomass accumulation in the earliest years of succession. Depending on previous land use scenarios, soil nutrient availability may also be low in this time period. Coupled together, this is evidence that there may be high biomass nutrient limitation early in succession, which is partially met by abundant symbiotic nitrogen fixation from certain tree species. We predict a switch from nitrogen limitation in early succession to one of three conditions: (i) phosphorus only, (ii) phosphorus plus nitrogen, or (iii) phosphorus, nitrogen, plus light co-limitation. We will discuss the mechanisms that govern the exact trajectory of limitation as forests build biomass. In addition, we used our model to explore scenarios of tropical secondary forest impermanence and the impacts of these dynamics on ecosystem nutrient limitation. We found that secondary forest impermanence exacerbates nutrient limitation and the need for nitrogen fixation early in succession. Together, these results indicate that biomass recovery dynamics early in succession as well as their connection to nutrient demand and limitation are fundamental for understanding and modeling nutrient limitation of the tropical forest carbon sink.

Analysis of stationary fuel cell dynamic ramping capabilities and ultra capacitor energy storage using high resolution demand data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meacham, James R.; Jabbari, Faryar; Brouwer, Jacob; Mauzey, Josh L.; Samuelsen, G. Scott

Current high temperature fuel cell (HTFC) systems used for stationary power applications (in the 200-300 kW size range) have very limited dynamic load following capability or are simply base load devices. Considering the economics of existing electric utility rate structures, there is little incentive to increase HTFC ramping capability beyond 1 kWs -1 (0.4% s -1). However, in order to ease concerns about grid instabilities from utility companies and increase market adoption, HTFC systems will have to increase their ramping abilities, and will likely have to incorporate electrical energy storage (EES). Because batteries have low power densities and limited lifetimes in highly cyclic applications, ultra capacitors may be the EES medium of choice. The current analyses show that, because ultra capacitors have a very low energy storage density, their integration with HTFC systems may not be feasible unless the fuel cell has a ramp rate approaching 10 kWs -1 (4% s -1) when using a worst-case design analysis. This requirement for fast dynamic load response characteristics can be reduced to 1 kWs -1 by utilizing high resolution demand data to properly size ultra capacitor systems and through demand management techniques that reduce load volatility.

Tire and runway surface research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yager, Thomas J.

1986-01-01

The condition of aircraft tires and runway surfaces can be crucial in meeting the stringent demands of aircraft ground operations, particularly under adverse weather conditions. Gaining a better understanding of the factors influencing the tire/pavement interface is the aim of several ongoing NASA Langley research programs which are described in this paper. Results from several studies conducted at the Langley Aircraft Landing Dynamics Facility, tests with instrumented ground vehicles and aircraft, and some recent aircraft accident investigations are summarized to indicate effects of different tire and runway properties. The Joint FAA/NASA Runway Friction Program is described together with some preliminary test findings. The scope of future NASA Langley research directed towards solving aircraft ground operational problems related to the tire/pavement interface is given.

Insuring Water Sustainability for Resource Extraction in the New Mexico Permian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.; Schuhen, M. D.; Lofton, O. W.; Walker, L. T. N.; Johnson, P. B.; Land, L. A.; Herrell, D.

2017-12-01

Advancements in directional drilling and well completion technologies have resulted in an exponential growth in the use of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas extraction. Within the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin (see figure), water demand to complete each hydraulically fractured well is estimated to average 7.3 acre-feet (2.4 million gallons), which has resulted in an increase in the regional water demand of over 5000 acre-feet per year. The rise in demand along with proposed rule changes that govern the regulation and management of hydraulic fracturing on Federal and Indian lands (40 CFS 3160) has created concern as to the regions ability to meet the demand in a manner that can sustainably meet the needs of the variety of water users and other stakeholders in the region while also protecting human health and the environment. Funded by the Bureau of Land Management who is charged with managing the regions water resources on Federal lands, this project is addressing those concerns using a multi-disciplinary approach that synthesizes data collection, field verification, and system dynamics (SD) modeling to better understand the dynamics of the regional water supply and demand under different management, policy, and growth scenarios. The scientific challenge has been in bringing together disparate data in a manner that exposes the temporal and spatial dynamics of the regional water supply in the context of increasing demands and changing policy and management scenarios. Field verification and testing activities are used to evaluate existing borehole data to insure that the data are accurate and up to date. The SD model simulates forecasted increases in drilling activity and water demand relative to each water source to identify areas that are most vulnerable and to estimate risk to water sustainability. Key to this is the models ability to seamlessly handle uncertainty such that it produces probabilistic outputs that allow decision makers to explore and better understand the conditions that may render their actions harmful or ineffective, and provides a means to adaptively manage as real-life conditions change over time. This presentation details the field work and data collection activities, the model conceptualization and development process, and provides real-world examples of the models application.

Disrupting Illicit Small Arms Trafficking in the Middle East

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

personal use and light weapons as weapons designed for use by a crew. Small arms include revolvers, self-loading pistols, rifles, sub- machine guns...assault rifles, and light machine guns. Light weapons include machine -guns, mortars, hand grenades, grenade launchers, portable anti-aircraft guns...71 David Atwood , Anne-Katherin Glatz, and Robert Muggah, Demanding Attention: Addressing the Dynamics of Small Arms Demand (Geneva: Small Arms

Job demands and job strain as risk factors for employee wellbeing in elderly care: an instrumental-variables analysis.

PubMed

Elovainio, Marko; Heponiemi, Tarja; Kuusio, Hannamaria; Jokela, Markus; Aalto, Anna-Mari; Pekkarinen, Laura; Noro, Anja; Finne-Soveri, Harriet; Kivimäki, Mika; Sinervo, Timo

2015-02-01

The association between psychosocial work environment and employee wellbeing has repeatedly been shown. However, as environmental evaluations have typically been self-reported, the observed associations may be attributable to reporting bias. Applying instrumental-variable regression, we used staffing level (the ratio of staff to residents) as an unconfounded instrument for self-reported job demands and job strain to predict various indicators of wellbeing (perceived stress, psychological distress and sleeping problems) among 1525 registered nurses, practical nurses and nursing assistants working in elderly care wards. In ordinary regression, higher self-reported job demands and job strain were associated with increased risk of perceived stress, psychological distress and sleeping problems. The effect estimates for the associations of these psychosocial factors with perceived stress and psychological distress were greater, but less precisely estimated, in an instrumental-variables analysis which took into account only the variation in self-reported job demands and job strain that was explained by staffing level. No association between psychosocial factors and sleeping problems was observed with the instrumental-variable analysis. These results support a causal interpretation of high self-reported job demands and job strain being risk factors for employee wellbeing. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Modeling taxi demand with GPS data from taxis and transit.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

Identifying factors that influence taxi demand is very important for understanding where and when people use taxis and how taxi demand relates to the availability and quality of transit service. This study used a large set of global positioning syste...

Demand, Energy, and Power Factor

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-01

POWER FACTOR DEFINITION I Basically , power factor (pf) is a measure of how effectively the plant uses the electricity it purchases from the utility. It...not be made available by the plant. U 24 This video is relatively short, less than fifteen-minutes, and covers the basics on demand, block extenders...designing, implementing, and evaluation of the resultant project. 1 2. Thumann, Albeit. Plant Engineer and Managers Guide to Energv Conservation, 5th ed

Development and Simulation of Increased Generation on a Secondary Circuit of a Microgrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, Karina

As fossil fuels are depleted and their environmental impacts remain, other sources of energy must be considered to generate power. Renewable sources, for example, are emerging to play a major role in this regard. In parallel, electric vehicle (EV) charging is evolving as a major load demand. To meet reliability and resiliency goals demanded by the electricity market, interest in microgrids are growing as a distributed energy resource (DER). In this thesis, the effects of intermittent renewable power generation and random EV charging on secondary microgrid circuits are analyzed in the presence of a controllable battery in order to characterize and better understand the dynamics associated with intermittent power production and random load demands in the context of the microgrid paradigm. For two reasons, a secondary circuit on the University of California, Irvine (UCI) Microgrid serves as the case study. First, the secondary circuit (UC-9) is heavily loaded and an integral component of a highly characterized and metered microgrid. Second, a unique "next-generation" distributed energy resource has been deployed at the end of the circuit that integrates photovoltaic power generation, battery storage, and EV charging. In order to analyze this system and evaluate the impact of the DER on the secondary circuit, a model was developed to provide a real-time load flow analysis. The research develops a power management system applicable to similarly integrated systems. The model is verified by metered data obtained from a network of high resolution electric meters and estimated load data for the buildings that have unknown demand. An increase in voltage is observed when the amount of photovoltaic power generation is increased. To mitigate this effect, a constant power factor is set. Should the real power change dramatically, the reactive power is changed to mitigate voltage fluctuations.

Tree ring δ18O reveals no long-term change of atmospheric water demand since 1800 in the northern Great Hinggan Mountains, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Xuanwen; Zhao, Liangju; Xu, Guobao; Wang, Lixin; Sun, Weizhen; Zhang, Qiuliang; Wang, Wenzhi; Zeng, Xiaomin; Wu, Guoju

2017-07-01

Global warming will significantly increase transpirational water demand, which could dramatically affect plant physiology and carbon and water budgets. Tree ring δ18O is a potential index of the leaf-to-air vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) and therefore has great potential for long-term climatic reconstruction. Here we developed δ18O chronologies of two dominant native trees, Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) and Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica), from a permafrost region in the Great Hinggan Mountains of northeastern China. We found that the July-August VPD and relative humidity were the dominant factors that controlled tree ring δ18O in the study region, indicating strong regulation of stomatal conductance. Based on the larch and pine tree ring δ18O chronologies, we developed a reliable summer (July-August) VPD reconstruction since 1800. Warming growing season temperatures increase transpiration and enrich cellulose 18O, but precipitation seemed to be the most important influence on VPD changes in this cold region. Periods with stronger transpirational demand occurred around the 1850s, from 1914 to 1925, and from 2005 to 2010. However, we found no overall long-term increasing or decreasing trends for VPD since 1800, suggesting that despite the increasing temperatures and thawing permafrost throughout the region, forest transpirational demand has not increased significantly during the past two centuries. Under current climatic conditions, VPD did not limit growth of larch and pine, even during extremely drought years. Our findings will support more realistic evaluations and reliable predictions of the potential influences of ongoing climatic change on carbon and water cycles and on forest dynamics in permafrost regions.

An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

Assessing air quality and climate impacts of future ground freight choice in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Bond, T. C.; Smith, S.; Lee, B.; Ouyang, Y.; Hwang, T.; Barkan, C.; Lee, S.; Daenzer, K.

2013-12-01

The demand for freight transportation has continued to increase due to the growth of domestic and international trade. Emissions from ground freight (truck and railways) account for around 7% of the greenhouse gas emissions, 4% of the primary particulate matter emission and 25% of the NOx emissions in the U.S. Freight railways are generally more fuel efficient than trucks and cause less congestion. Freight demand and emissions are affected by many factors, including economic activity, the spatial distribution of demand, freight modal choice and routing decision, and the technology used in each modal type. This work links these four critical aspects of freight emission system to project the spatial distribution of emissions and pollutant concentration from ground freight transport in the U.S. between 2010 and 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios are used to forecast economic activities. Future spatial structure of employment and commodity demand in major metropolitan areas are estimated using spatial models and a shift-share model, respectively. Freight flow concentration and congestion patterns in inter-regional transportation networks are predicted from a four-step freight demand forecasting model. An asymptotic vehicle routing model is also developed to estimate delivery ton-miles for intra-regional freight shipment in metropolitan areas. Projected freight activities are then converted into impacts on air quality and climate. CO2 emissions are determined using a simple model of freight activity and fuel efficiency, and compared with the projected CO2 emissions from the Second Generation Model. Emissions of air pollutants including PM, NOx and CO are calculated with a vehicle fleet model SPEW-Trend, which incorporates the dynamic change of technologies. Emissions are projected under three economic scenarios to represent different plausible futures. Pollutant concentrations are then estimated using tagged chemical tracers in an atmospheric model with the emissions serving as input.

[A preliminary study on dental-manpower forecasting model of Miyun County in Beijing].

PubMed

Huang, H; Wang, H; Yang, S

1999-01-01

To explore the dental-manpower forecasting model of Chinese rural region and provide references for Chinese dental-manpower researches. Chose rural Miyun County in Beijing as a sample, according to the need-based and demand-weighted forecasting method, a protocol WHO-CH model and corresponding JWG-6-M package developed by authors were used to calculate the present and future need and demand of dental-manpower in Miyun County. Further predications were also calculated on the effects of four modeling parameters to the demand of dental manpower. The present need and demand of oral care personnel for Miyun were 114.5 and 29.1 respectively. At present, Miyun has 43 oral care providers who can satisfy the demand but not the need. The change of oral health demand had a major effect on the forecast of the manpower. Dental-manpower planning should consider the need as a prime factor but must be modified by the demand. It was suggested that corresponding factors of oral care personnel need to be discussed further.

Psychosocial work environment and health in U.S. metropolitan areas: a test of the demand-control and demand-control-support models.

PubMed

Muntaner, C; Schoenbach, C

1994-01-01

The authors use confirmatory factor analysis to investigate the psychosocial dimensions of work environments relevant to health outcomes, in a representative sample of five U.S. metropolitan areas. Through an aggregated inference system, scales from Schwartz and associates' job scoring system and from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) were employed to examine two alternative models: the demand-control model of Karasek and Theorell and Johnson's demand-control-support model. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test the two models. The two multidimensional models yielded better fits than an unstructured model. After allowing for the measurement error variance due to the method of assessment (Schwartz and associates' system or DOT), both models yielded acceptable goodness-of-fit indices, but the fit of the demand-control-support model was significantly better. Overall these results indicate that the dimensions of Control (substantive complexity of work, skill discretion, decision authority), Demands (physical exertion, physical demands and hazards), and Social Support (coworker and supervisor social supports) provide an acceptable account of the psychosocial dimensions of work associated with health outcomes.

Work-related psychosocial risk factors and mental health problems amongst nurses at a university hospital in Estonia: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Freimann, Tiina; Merisalu, Eda

2015-07-01

Rapid changes in the Estonian health care system have placed extra pressure on the nursing profession, but the potential impacts of psychosocial changes have not been investigated. We aimed to explore the work-related psychosocial risk factors and their relationships with mental health problems (MHPs) amongst nurses at the university hospital in Estonia. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken amongst registered nurses at Tartu University Hospital (TUH). Psychosocial work factors and MHPs (stress, somatic symptoms, depressive symptoms and burnout) were measured using version two of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II). Descriptive statistics and Pearson's r correlation with sequential Bonferroni correction were used to analyse the data. The analysis was based on 404 nurses (45% of the full-time working population of nurses). The highest mean scores recorded for the positive work-related psychosocial factors studied were meaning of work, role clarity, social relationships and mutual trust between employees. The highest scores for the negative factors studied were the demands for hiding emotions, work pace, cognitive and emotional demands. Stress and burnout showed the highest mean scores amongst the MHPs. Quantitative and emotional demands were positively related to all of the studied MHPs, while work pace and role conflicts had a positive correlation with stress and burnout. All of the studied negative psychosocial factors were significantly correlated with burnout. work-related psychosocial risk factors such as quantitative demands work load, emotional demands, work pace and role conflicts, had significant positive relationships with MHPS in nurses in Estonia, and may contribute to high levels of stress as well as burnout amongst nurses: . © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - AMS Testbed Detailed Requirements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-20

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - Chicago testbed analysis plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Health Insurance, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Zhou; Gilleskie, Donna B.; Norton, Edward C.

2009-01-01

Prescription drug coverage creates a change in medical care consumption, beyond standard moral hazard, arising both from the differential cost-sharing and the relative effectiveness of different types of care. We model the dynamic supplemental health insurance decisions of Medicare beneficiaries, their medical care demand, and subsequent health…

Unfolding the Knowledge and Power Dynamics of the "Farmers-Rural Extensionists" Interface in North-Eastern Argentina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landini, Fernando

2016-01-01

Purpose: In this paper, the knowledge dynamics of the farmer-rural extensionist' interface were explored from extensionists' perspective with the aim of understanding the matchmaking processes between supply and demand of extension services at the micro-level. Design/methodology/approach: Forty semi-structured interviews were conducted with…

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - evaluation plan : draft report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-07-13

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - San Diego calibration report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — Chicago calibration report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - Pasadena testbed analysis plan : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-30

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Dynamic alterations of hepatocellular function by on-demand elasticity and roughness modulation.

PubMed

Uto, K; Aoyagi, T; DeForest, C A; Ebara, M

2018-05-01

Temperature-responsive cell culture substrates reported here can be dynamically programmed to induce bulk softening and surface roughness changes in the presence of living cells. Alterations in hepatocellular function following temporally controlled substrate softening depend on the extent of stiff mechanical priming prior to user-induced material transition.

Macroeconomic Stabilization When the Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

2015-01-01

The authors modify the Dynamic Aggregate Demand-Dynamic Aggregate Supply model in Mankiw's widely used intermediate macroeconomics textbook to discuss monetary policy when the natural real interest rate is falling over time. Their results highlight a new role for the central bank's inflation target as a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. They…

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - San Diego testbed analysis plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - AMS Testbed Selection Criteria

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-16

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs : Dallas testbed analysis plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-16

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate theimpacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM)strategies. The outputs (mo...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation report for DMA program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-02-02

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Burnout and Work Demands Predict Reduced Job Satisfaction in Health Professionals Working In a Surgery Clinic

PubMed Central

Mijakoski, Dragan; Karadzinska-Bislimovska, Jovanka; Basarovska, Vera; Stoleski, Sasho; Minov, Jordan

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Burnout syndrome develops in health professionals (HPs) as a result of exposure to chronic emotional and interpersonal workplace stressors. Research demonstrates the links between burnout, work demands, and job satisfaction in hospital HPs. AIMS: To examine the associations between burnout, work demands and job satisfaction, and to demonstrate the mediation effect of emotional exhaustion on the relationship between work demands and job satisfaction in surgery clinic HPs. METHODS: Maslach Burnout Inventory was used for assessment of burnout. Work demands and job satisfaction were measured with Hospital Experience Scale and Job Satisfaction Survey, respectively. In order to examine the role of emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and work demands, controlling for age, hospital tenure, and unit tenure, a hierarchical multiple regression models were tested for each job satisfaction factor. RESULTS: Job satisfaction was negatively predicted by emotional exhaustion. Certain types of work demands negatively predicted different factors of job satisfaction. Emotional exhaustion was a significant partial mediator of the relationship between work demands and job satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: Adequate management of work demands, particularly excessive workload, time pressure, and lack of staff can lead to prevention of burnout and reduced job satisfaction in surgery clinic HPs, and contribute to better quality of patient care. PMID:27275216

Multi-criteria assessment of energy conversion systems by means of thermodynamic, economic and environmental parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerra Lopez, Humberto Ruben

2007-12-01

High expansion of power demand is expected in the Upper Rio Grande region (El Paso, Hudspeth, Culberson, Jeff Davis, Presidio and Brewster counties) as a result of both electrical demand growth and decommissioning of installed capacity. On the supply side a notable deployment of renewable power technologies can be projected owing to the recent introduction of a new energy policy in Texas, which attempts to reach 10,000 installed-MWe of renewable capacity for 2025. Power generation fueled by natural-gas might consistently expand due to the encouraged use of this fuel. In this context the array of participating technologies can be optimized, which, within a sustainability framework, translates into a multidimensional problem. The solution to the problem is presented through this dissertation in two main parts. The first part solves the thermodynamic-environmental problem through developing a dynamic model to project maximum allowable expansion of technologies. Predetermined alternatives include diverse renewable energy technologies (wind turbine, photovoltaic conversion, hybrid solar thermal parabolic trough, and solid oxide fuel cells), a conventional fossil-fuel technology (natural gas combined-cycle), and a breakthrough fossil-fuel technology (solid oxide fuel cells). The analysis is based on the concept of cumulative exergy consumption, expanded to include abatement of emissions. A Gompertz sigmoid growth is assumed and constrained by both exergetic self-sustenance and regional energy resource availability. This part of the analysis assumes that power demand expansion is met by full deployment of alternative technologies backed up by conventional technology. Results show that through a proper allowance for exergy reinvestment the power demand expansion may be met largely by alternative technologies minimizing the primary resource depletion. The second part of the study makes use of the dynamic model to support a multi-objective optimization routine, where the exergetic and economic costs are established as primary competing factors. An optimization algorithm is implemented using the constraint method. The solution is given as Pareto optimality with arrays for minimum cost and possible arrays for the tradeoff front. These arrays are further analyzed in terms of sustainability, cumulative exergy loss (i.e. irreversibilities and waste exergy) and incremental economic cost, and the results are compared with the goals of current legislated energy policy.

Isotopes and soil physic analysis as a tool to meet answers related to soil-plant-atmosphere behavior of Amazon forest during droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borma, L. D. S.; Oliveira, R. S.; Silva, R. D.; Chaparro Saaveedra, O. F.; Barros, F. V.; Bittencourt, P.

2015-12-01

Droughts and floods are part of the Amazon weather pattern, but in face of climate change, it has been expected an increase in their intensity and duration. Forests are important regulators of climate. However, it is still unknown how they respond to an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme droughts. Additionally, there are great uncertainties related with the forest behavior in an enriched CO2 environment. For the Amazon rainforest, some authors report forest growth in a drier climate, while others report forest mortality in these same conditions. The crucial factor in this process seem the linkage between atmospheric demand from water and its provision by soil moisture, intermediated by the plants. In theory, in regions where soil moisture is high, even in the absence of rainfall conditions, water exists in enough quantity to meet the atmospheric demand, and majority of plants behave as an evergreen forest. This is the case, for example, for some research sites of equatorial regions of the Amazon forest, which tend to increase evapotranspiration rates in dry season, when the atmospheric demand is higher. However, the extent to which soil moisture decreases, the plant is no longer able to meet the atmospheric demand, limiting evapotranspiration and possibly, entering in a dormant state. To understand the forest response to droughts, in terms of its potential to maintain or reduce evapotranspiration rates, it is necessary to know water dynamics in soil and soil layers where plants are able to extract water. It's a challenge, considering the great variability of soils and plants that forms the huge biodiversity of the Amazon forest. Here, we present an experiment design based on isotopic analyzes in a small watershed in Amazon basin. In order to understand the dynamics of the water used by the plant during the evaporation process, isotope analysis were carried out in soil water collected from shallow and deep groundwater, in the water collected on the bark of plants and rainfall water, intercepted or not by the canopy. These results were analyzed in conjunction with the soil properties, its moisture retention capacity and groundwater level variations. This study presents some insights about the capability of this methodology to answer questions related to the soil moisture sources and forest response to droughts.

Neo-classical theory of competition or Adam Smith's hand as mathematized ideology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2001-10-01

Orthodox economic theory (utility maximization, rational agents, efficient markets in equilibrium) is based on arbitrarily postulated, nonempiric notions. The disagreement between economic reality and a key feature of neo-classical economic theory was criticized empirically by Osborne. I show that the orthodox theory is internally self-inconsistent for the very reason suggested by Osborne: lack of invertibility of demand and supply as functions of price to obtain price as functions of supply and demand. The reason for the noninvertibililty arises from nonintegrable excess demand dynamics, a feature of their theory completely ignored by economists.

Demand-supply dynamics in tourism systems: A spatio-temporal GIS analysis. The Alberta ski industry case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertazzon, Stefania

The present research focuses on the interaction of supply and demand of down-hill ski tourism in the province of Alberta. The main hypothesis is that the demand for skiing depends on the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population living in the province and outside it. A second, consequent hypothesis is that the development of ski resorts (supply) is a response to the demand for skiing. From the latter derives the hypothesis of a dynamic interaction between supply (ski resorts) and demand (skiers). Such interaction occurs in space, within a range determined by physical distance and the means available to overcome it. The above hypotheses implicitly define interactions that take place in space and evolve over time. The hypotheses are tested by temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal regression models, using the best available data and the latest commercially available software. The main purpose of this research is to explore analytical techniques to model spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal dynamics in the context of regional science. The completion of the present research has produced more significant contributions than was originally expected. Many of the unexpected contributions resulted from theoretical and applied needs arising from the application of spatial regression models. Spatial regression models are a new and largely under-applied technique. The models are fairly complex and a considerable amount of preparatory work is needed, prior to their specification and estimation. Most of this work is specific to the field of application. The originality of the solutions devised is increased by the lack of applications in the field of tourism. The scarcity of applications in other fields adds to their value for other applications. The estimation of spatio-temporal models has been only partially attained in the present research. This apparent limitation is due to the novelty and complexity of the analytical methods applied. This opens new directions for further work in the field of spatial analysis, in conjunction with the development of specific software.

Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos

2015-11-02

As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D 2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D 2R, which we address inmore » this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D 2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D 2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D 2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D 2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D 2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of historical training data can be used to make reliable predictions, simplifying the complexity of big data challenge associated with D 2R.« less

Meeting Increasing Demands for Rural General Surgeons.

PubMed

Mccarthy, Mary C; Bowers, Howard E; Campbell, Damon M; Parikh, Priti P; Woods, Randy J

2015-12-01

Dynamic assessment of the effective surgical workforce recommends 27,300 general surgeons in 2030; 2,525 more than are presently being trained. Rural shortages are already critical and there has been insufficient preparation for this need. A literature review of the factors influencing the choice of rural practice was performed. A systematic search was conducted of PubMed and the Web of Science to identify applicable studies in rural practice, surgical training, and rural general surgery. These articles were reviewed to identify the pertinent reports. The articles chosen for review are directed to four main objectives: 1) description of the challenges of rural practice, 2) factors associated with the choice of rural practice, 3) interventions to increase interest and preparation for rural practice, and 4) present successful rural surgical practice models. There is limited research on the factors influencing surgeons in the selection of rural surgery. The family practice literature suggests that physicians are primed for rural living through early experience, with reinforcement during medical school and residency, and retained through community involvement, and personal and professional satisfaction. However, more research into the factors drawing surgeons specifically to rural surgery, and keeping them in the community, is needed.

Modelling the Effects of Teacher Demand Factors on Teacher Understaffing in Public Secondary Schools in Kenya

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wamukuru, David Kuria

2016-01-01

The secondary school teacher labour market faces many challenges including, escalating teacher wage bill, teacher shortages that occur alongside teacher surpluses, inadequate teacher distribution and inefficient teacher utilization. There is the need therefore to understand the effects of the factors determining demand for secondary school…

Industry Training: The Factors that Affect Demand. Discussion Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, A.; Roberts, P.; Noble, C.; Hayton, G.; Thorne, E.

A study was conducted in Australia, to determine the factors that affect demand for job training. The study consisted of 30 detailed industry case studies, an industry analysis, and a literature review. Each case study examined current training practices, training decision making in the business, and the determinants of training for the…

Dynamic ambulance reallocation for the reduction of ambulance response times using system status management.

PubMed

Lam, Sean Shao Wei; Zhang, Ji; Zhang, Zhong Cheng; Oh, Hong Choon; Overton, Jerry; Ng, Yih Yng; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock

2015-02-01

Dynamically reassigning ambulance deployment locations throughout a day to balance ambulance availability and demands can be effective in reducing response times. The objectives of this study were to model dynamic ambulance allocation plans in Singapore based on the system status management (SSM) strategy and to evaluate the dynamic deployment plans using a discrete event simulation (DES) model. The geographical information system-based analysis and mathematical programming were used to develop the dynamic ambulance deployment plans for SSM based on ambulance calls data from January 1, 2011, to June 30, 2011. A DES model that incorporated these plans was used to compare the performance of the dynamic SSM strategy against static reallocation policies under various demands and travel time uncertainties. When the deployment plans based on the SSM strategy were followed strictly, the DES model showed that the geographical information system-based plans resulted in approximately 13-second reduction in the median response times compared to the static reallocation policy, whereas the mathematical programming-based plans resulted in approximately a 44-second reduction. The response times and coverage performances were still better than the static policy when reallocations happened for only 60% of all the recommended moves. Dynamically reassigning ambulance deployment locations based on the SSM strategy can result in superior response times and coverage performance compared to static reallocation policies even when the dynamic plans were not followed strictly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

2018-04-01

Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

A dynamic bioenergetic model for coral-Symbiodinium symbioses and coral bleaching as an alternate stable state.

PubMed

Cunning, Ross; Muller, Erik B; Gates, Ruth D; Nisbet, Roger M

2017-10-27

Coral reef ecosystems owe their ecological success - and vulnerability to climate change - to the symbiotic metabolism of corals and Symbiodinium spp. The urgency to understand and predict the stability and breakdown of these symbioses (i.e., coral 'bleaching') demands the development and application of theoretical tools. Here, we develop a dynamic bioenergetic model of coral-Symbiodinium symbioses that demonstrates realistic steady-state patterns in coral growth and symbiont abundance across gradients of light, nutrients, and feeding. Furthermore, by including a mechanistic treatment of photo-oxidative stress, the model displays dynamics of bleaching and recovery that can be explained as transitions between alternate stable states. These dynamics reveal that "healthy" and "bleached" states correspond broadly to nitrogen- and carbon-limitation in the system, with transitions between them occurring as integrated responses to multiple environmental factors. Indeed, a suite of complex emergent behaviors reproduced by the model (e.g., bleaching is exacerbated by nutrients and attenuated by feeding) suggests it captures many important attributes of the system; meanwhile, its modular framework and open source R code are designed to facilitate further problem-specific development. We see significant potential for this modeling framework to generate testable hypotheses and predict integrated, mechanistic responses of corals to environmental change, with important implications for understanding the performance and maintenance of symbiotic systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Autonomic Nervous System Responses to Hearing-Related Demand and Evaluative Threat.

PubMed

Mackersie, Carol L; Kearney, Lucia

2017-10-12

This paper consists of 2 parts. The purpose of Part 1 was to review the potential influence of internal (person-related) factors on listening effort. The purpose of Part 2 was to present, in support of Part 1, preliminary data illustrating the interactive effects of an external factor (task demand) and an internal factor (evaluative threat) on autonomic nervous system measures. For Part 1, we provided a brief narrative review of motivation and stress as modulators of listening effort. For Part 2, we described preliminary data from a study using a repeated-measures (2 × 2) design involving manipulations of task demand (high, low) and evaluative threat (high, low). The low-demand task consisted of repetition of sentences from a narrative. The high-demand task consisted of answering questions about the narrative, requiring both comprehension and recall. During the high evaluative threat condition, participants were filmed and told that their video recordings would be evaluated by a panel of experts. During the low evaluative threat condition, no filming occurred; participants were instructed to "do your best." Skin conductance (sympathetic nervous system activity) and heart rate variability (HRV, parasympathetic activity) were measured during the listening tasks. The HRV measure was the root mean square of successive differences of adjacent interbeat intervals. Twelve adults with hearing loss participated. Skin conductance increased and HRV decreased relative to baseline (no task) for all listening conditions. Skin conductance increased significantly with an increase in evaluative threat, but only for the more demanding task. There was no significant change in HRV in response to increasing evaluative threat or task demand. Listening effort may be influenced by factors other than task difficulty, as reviewed in Part 1. This idea is supported by the preliminary data indicating that the sympathetic nervous system response to task demand is modulated by social evaluative threat. More work is needed to determine the relative contributions of motivation and emotional stress on physiological responses during listening tasks.

An economic approach to abortion demand.

PubMed

Rothstein, D S

1992-01-01

"This paper uses econometric multiple regression techniques in order to analyze the socioeconomic factors affecting the demand for abortion for the year 1985. A cross-section of the 50 [U.S.] states and Washington D.C. is examined and a household choice theoretical framework is utilized. The results suggest that average price of abortion, disposable personal per capita income, percentage of single women, whether abortions are state funded, unemployment rate, divorce rate, and if the state is located in the far West, are statistically significant factors in the determination of the demand for abortion." excerpt

Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution LSM this work allows for progress on hydrological monitoring and predictions, as well as drought preparedness and water impact assessments at relevant decision-making scales.

[Factors influencing the satisfaction of demands on services for elderly with visual disability].

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Li, Wenfei; Zhu, Jieping; Huang, Tingting; Zhu, Lin; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

2014-09-01

To investigate the status and associated factors of demand satisfaction (DS) of services for older adults with visual disability (OAVD). Based on the 2nd National Sample Survey on Disability in 2006, a total number of 24 017 OAVD cases were included. Associated relationships among demographic, health-related, social, economic factors and services of DS, including health demand (Type I), basic livelihood demand (Type II), and environmental support demand (Type III) were analyzed. The proportions of DS of Type I, II, III services for OAVD were 35.1% , 9.3% and 4.3% respectively. Eight factors as:having pension insurance (OR = 1.64), living in urban areas (OR = 1.54), per capita household income at ≥5 000 or over Yuan (OR = 1.46)were favorable ones on OAVD DS while at age ≥80 or above (OR = 0.90), being male (OR = 0.93)were adverse factors of Type I. Four factors as:being male (OR = 1.43), living in urban areas (OR = 1.15), subjects defined as grade II (OR = 1.36) and grade I (OR = 1.70) etc., were favorable factors on OAVD DS. Five factors as: range of age groups at 15-59 (OR = 0.57) or at ≥60 (OR = 0.45), per capita household income at 1 000-1 999 Yuan (OR = 0.77), 2 000-4 999 Yuan (OR = 0.58) and ≥5 000 Yuan (OR = 0.39) were adverse factors of Type II. Factors as: living in urban areas (OR = 1.23), defined as grade II (OR = 1.38) and grade I (OR = 1.34), having pension insurance (OR = 1.62) and per capita household income at ≥5 000 Yuan (OR = 1.42) etc., were favorable factors of Type III. The DS degree of older adults with visual disability was generally very low while factors as: per capita household income, situation on social insurance, age, degree of disability, age when disability was identified, areas of residence, gender, grade of disability, marriage status, levels of education etc., were significantly associated with the service on DS.

Can Sap Flow Help Us to Better Understand Transpiration Patterns in Landscapes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassler, S. K.; Weiler, M.; Blume, T.

2017-12-01

Transpiration is a key process in the hydrological cycle and a sound understanding and quantification of transpiration and its spatial variability is essential for management decisions and for improving the parameterisation of hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models. At the tree scale, transpiration is commonly estimated by measuring sap flow. Besides evaporative demand and water availability, tree-specific characteristics such as species, size or social status, stand-specific characteristics such as basal area or stand density and site-specific characteristics such as geology, slope position or aspect control sap flow of individual trees. However, little is known about the relative importance or the dynamic interplay of these controls. We studied these influences with multiple linear regression models to explain the variability of sap velocity measurements in 61 beech and oak trees, located at 24 sites spread over a 290 km²-catchment in Luxembourg. For each of 132 consecutive days of the growing season of 2014 we applied linear models to the daily spatial pattern of sap velocity and determined the importance of the different predictors. By upscaling sap velocities to the tree level with the help of species-dependent empirical estimates for sapwood area we also examined patterns of sap flow as a more direct representation of transpiration. Results indicate that a combination of mainly tree- and site-specific factors controls sap velocity patterns in this landscape, namely tree species, tree diameter, geology and aspect. For sap flow, the site-specific predictors provided the largest contribution to the explained variance, however, in contrast to the sap velocity analysis, geology was more important than aspect. Spatial variability of atmospheric demand and soil moisture explained only a small fraction of the variance. However, the temporal dynamics of the explanatory power of the tree-specific characteristics, especially species, were correlated to the temporal dynamics of potential evaporation. We conclude that spatial representation of transpiration in models could benefit from including patterns according to tree and site characteristics.

Tree-, stand- and site-specific controls on landscape-scale patterns of transpiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassler, Sibylle; Markus, Weiler; Theresa, Blume

2017-04-01

Transpiration is a key process in the hydrological cycle and a sound understanding and quantification of transpiration and its spatial variability is essential for management decisions as well as for improving the parameterisation of hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models. For individual trees, transpiration is commonly estimated by measuring sap flow. Besides evaporative demand and water availability, tree-specific characteristics such as species, size or social status control sap flow amounts of individual trees. Within forest stands, properties such as species composition, basal area or stand density additionally affect sap flow, for example via competition mechanisms. Finally, sap flow patterns might also be influenced by landscape-scale characteristics such as geology, slope position or aspect because they affect water and energy availability; however, little is known about the dynamic interplay of these controls. We studied the relative importance of various tree-, stand- and site-specific characteristics with multiple linear regression models to explain the variability of sap velocity measurements in 61 beech and oak trees, located at 24 sites spread over a 290 km2-catchment in Luxembourg. For each of 132 consecutive days of the growing season of 2014 we modelled the daily sap velocities of these 61 trees and determined the importance of the different predictors. Results indicate that a combination of tree-, stand- and site-specific factors controls sap velocity patterns in the landscape, namely tree species, tree diameter, the stand density, geology and aspect. Compared to these predictors, spatial variability of atmospheric demand and soil moisture explains only a small fraction of the variability in the daily datasets. However, the temporal dynamics of the explanatory power of the tree-specific characteristics, especially species, are correlated to the temporal dynamics of potential evaporation. Thus, transpiration estimates at the landscape scale would benefit from not only considering hydro-meteorological drivers, but also including tree, stand and site characteristics in order to improve the spatial representation of transpiration for hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the cardiac mitochondrial proteome.

PubMed

Lau, Edward; Huang, Derrick; Cao, Quan; Dincer, T Umut; Black, Caitie M; Lin, Amanda J; Lee, Jessica M; Wang, Ding; Liem, David A; Lam, Maggie P Y; Ping, Peipei

2015-04-01

Mitochondrial proteins alter in their composition and quantity drastically through time and space in correspondence to changing energy demands and cellular signaling events. The integrity and permutations of this dynamism are increasingly recognized to impact the functions of the cardiac proteome in health and disease. This article provides an overview on recent advances in defining the spatial and temporal dynamics of mitochondrial proteins in the heart. Proteomics techniques to characterize dynamics on a proteome scale are reviewed and the physiological consequences of altered mitochondrial protein dynamics are discussed. Lastly, we offer our perspectives on the unmet challenges in translating mitochondrial dynamics markers into the clinic.

Analysis and Strategies of the Unbalance of the Supply and Demand in the Higher Education Market of China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ma, Jie

2010-01-01

The popularization of higher education largely impacts the balance of the supply and demand of the China higher education market. Starting from the basic concepts of the supply and demand of higher education, the actuality and influencing factors of the supply and demand in China higher education market are analyzed in this article, and…

The Adoption of On-Demand Learning in Organizations in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cui, Lianbin

2010-01-01

There is a lack of studies on the current status of the use of on-demand learning in organizations and factors that may accelerate or hold back the acceptance and implementation of on-demand learning in organizations. The purpose of this study is to contribute to a better understanding of the adoption of on-demand learning in organizations in the…

Remote Sensing for Hydrology: Surface Water Dynamics from Three Decades of Landsat Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulbure, M. G.; Broich, M.; Kingsford, R.; Lucas, R.; Keith, D.

2014-12-01

Surface water is a vital resource affected by changes in climate and anthropogenic factors. Knowledge of surface water dynamics provides critical information for flood and drought management. Here we focused on the on the entire Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia, a large semi-arid region with scarce water resources, high hydroclimatic variability and competing water demands, impacted by climate change, altered flow regimes and land use changes. The MDB is also an area where substantial investment in environmental water allocation of large volumes of environmental flow was made. We used Landsat TM and ETM+ time series to synoptically map the dynamic of surface water extent with an internally consistent algorithm (Tulbure and Broich, 2013) over decades (1986-2011). We used a subset of Landsat path/rows for image training in both wet and dry years. Results show high interannual variability in number and size of flooded areas, with flooded areas during the Millennium Drought (until 2009) being substantially smaller than during the excessive 2010-2011 La Nina flooding. Flooding frequency in 2006, a very dry year was lower than in 2010, the La Nina year when extensive floods occurred. More developed areas of the basin showed different inter-annual patterns from natural areas of the basin. At Barmah-Millewa, the largest river red gum forest in the world, we also mapped flooded forest and tracked changes in NDVI. Higher NDVI values were found in areas more frequently flooded. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal dynamics of flooding and the response of riparian vegetation communities to flooding is important for management of floodplain wetlands and vegetation communities and for investigating effectiveness of environmental flows and flow regimes in the MDB. Existing maps of inundated areas are linked with river flow to quantify the relationship between river flow and inundated area in the MDB. Historic flood inundation extent mapped via remote sensing can be used to quantify spatially explicit changes in surface water dynamics and vegetation communities as outcomes of management scenarios in response to water management decisions. This methodology is globally applicable and relevant to areas prone to flooding with competing water demands and can be used for mapping water availability in data scarce regions.

Collaborative activity between parietal and dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex in dynamic spatial working memory revealed by fMRI.

PubMed

Diwadkar, V A; Carpenter, P A; Just, M A

2000-07-01

Functional MRI was used to determine how the constituents of the cortical network subserving dynamic spatial working memory respond to two types of increases in task complexity. Participants mentally maintained the most recent location of either one or three objects as the three objects moved discretely in either a two- or three-dimensional array. Cortical activation in the dorsolateral prefrontal (DLPFC) and the parietal cortex increased as a function of the number of object locations to be maintained and the dimensionality of the display. An analysis of the response characteristics of the individual voxels showed that a large proportion were activated only when both the variables imposed the higher level of demand. A smaller proportion were activated specifically in response to increases in task demand associated with each of the independent variables. A second experiment revealed the same effect of dimensionality in the parietal cortex when the movement of objects was signaled auditorily rather than visually, indicating that the additional representational demands induced by 3-D space are independent of input modality. The comodulation of activation in the prefrontal and parietal areas by the amount of computational demand suggests that the collaboration between areas is a basic feature underlying much of the functionality of spatial working memory. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Monopoly models with time-varying demand function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

2018-05-01

We study a family of monopoly models for markets characterized by time-varying demand functions, in which a boundedly rational agent chooses output levels on the basis of a gradient adjustment mechanism. After presenting the model for a generic framework, we analytically study the case of cyclically alternating demand functions. We show that both the perturbation size and the agent's reactivity to profitability variation signals can have counterintuitive roles on the resulting period-2 cycles and on their stability. In particular, increasing the perturbation size can have both a destabilizing and a stabilizing effect on the resulting dynamics. Moreover, in contrast with the case of time-constant demand functions, the agent's reactivity is not just destabilizing, but can improve stability, too. This means that a less cautious behavior can provide better performance, both with respect to stability and to achieved profits. We show that, even if the decision mechanism is very simple and is not able to always provide the optimal production decisions, achieved profits are very close to those optimal. Finally, we show that in agreement with the existing empirical literature, the price series obtained simulating the proposed model exhibit a significant deviation from normality and large volatility, in particular when underlying deterministic dynamics become unstable and complex.

Water demand forecasting: review of soft computing methods.

PubMed

Ghalehkhondabi, Iman; Ardjmand, Ehsan; Young, William A; Weckman, Gary R

2017-07-01

Demand forecasting plays a vital role in resource management for governments and private companies. Considering the scarcity of water and its inherent constraints, demand management and forecasting in this domain are critically important. Several soft computing techniques have been developed over the last few decades for water demand forecasting. This study focuses on soft computing methods of water consumption forecasting published between 2005 and 2015. These methods include artificial neural networks (ANNs), fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy models, support vector machines, metaheuristics, and system dynamics. Furthermore, it was discussed that while in short-term forecasting, ANNs have been superior in many cases, but it is still very difficult to pick a single method as the overall best. According to the literature, various methods and their hybrids are applied to water demand forecasting. However, it seems soft computing has a lot more to contribute to water demand forecasting. These contribution areas include, but are not limited, to various ANN architectures, unsupervised methods, deep learning, various metaheuristics, and ensemble methods. Moreover, it is found that soft computing methods are mainly used for short-term demand forecasting.

Economic approach to assess the forest carbon implications of biomass energy.

PubMed

Daigneault, Adam; Sohngen, Brent; Sedjo, Roger

2012-06-05

There is widespread concern that biomass energy policy that promotes forests as a supply source will cause net carbon emissions. Most of the analyses that have been done to date, however, are biological, ignoring the effects of market adaptations through substitution, net imports, and timber investments. This paper uses a dynamic model of forest and land use management to estimate the impact of United States energy policies that emphasize the utilization of forest biomass on global timber production and carbon stocks over the next 50 years. We show that when market factors are included in the analysis, expanded demand for biomass energy increases timber prices and harvests, but reduces net global carbon emissions because higher wood prices lead to new investments in forest stocks. Estimates are sensitive to assumptions about whether harvest residues and new forestland can be used for biomass energy and the demand for biomass. Restricting biomass energy to being sourced only from roundwood on existing forestland can transform the policy from a net sink to a net source of emissions. These results illustrate the importance of capturing market adjustments and a large geographic scope when measuring the carbon implications of biomass energy policies.

What the Human Brain Likes About Facial Motion

PubMed Central

Schultz, Johannes; Brockhaus, Matthias; Bülthoff, Heinrich H.; Pilz, Karin S.

2013-01-01

Facial motion carries essential information about other people's emotions and intentions. Most previous studies have suggested that facial motion is mainly processed in the superior temporal sulcus (STS), but several recent studies have also shown involvement of ventral temporal face-sensitive regions. Up to now, it is not known whether the increased response to facial motion is due to an increased amount of static information in the stimulus, to the deformation of the face over time, or to increased attentional demands. We presented nonrigidly moving faces and control stimuli to participants performing a demanding task unrelated to the face stimuli. We manipulated the amount of static information by using movies with different frame rates. The fluidity of the motion was manipulated by presenting movies with frames either in the order in which they were recorded or in scrambled order. Results confirm higher activation for moving compared with static faces in STS and under certain conditions in ventral temporal face-sensitive regions. Activation was maximal at a frame rate of 12.5 Hz and smaller for scrambled movies. These results indicate that both the amount of static information and the fluid facial motion per se are important factors for the processing of dynamic faces. PMID:22535907

Stochastic Analysis and Forecasts of the Patterns of Speed, Acceleration, and Levels of Material Stock Accumulation in Society.

PubMed

Fishman, Tomer; Schandl, Heinz; Tanikawa, Hiroki

2016-04-05

The recent acceleration of urbanization and industrialization of many parts of the developing world, most notably in Asia, has resulted in a fast-increasing demand for and accumulation of construction materials in society. Despite the importance of physical stocks in society, the empirical assessment of total material stock of buildings and infrastructure and reasons for its growth have been underexplored in the sustainability literature. We propose an innovative approach for explaining material stock dynamics in society and create a country typology for stock accumulation trajectories using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology, a stochastic approach commonly used in business studies and economics to inspect and forecast time series. This enables us to create scenarios for future demand and accumulation of building materials in society, including uncertainty estimates. We find that the so-far overlooked aspect of acceleration trends of material stock accumulation holds the key to explaining material stock growth, and that despite tremendous variability in country characteristics, stock accumulation is limited to only four archetypal growth patterns. The ability of nations to change their pattern will be a determining factor for global sustainability.

78 FR 9336 - Production of FHFA Records, Information, and Employee Testimony in Legal Proceedings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-08

... proposed rule would establish requirements and procedures for demanding or requesting parties to submit demands or requests, and factors for FHFA to consider in determining whether FHFA employees will provide... business, protect confidential information, provide guidance to demanding or requesting parties, minimize...

Illinois Teacher Supply and Demand, 1984-1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartolini, Leandro

Statistics are presented on the current status of teacher supply and demand trends in Illinois. This report reviews and discusses the factors affecting teacher supply and demand, changes in student enrollment, teacher retirements, changes in state mandates, and opportunity for employment. An analysis of the data collected on teacher employment…

Integrating Land Use and Socioeconomic Factors into Scenario-Based Travel Demand and Carbon Emission Impact Study

EPA Science Inventory

Urban sprawl continues since the last century, leading to a rapid increase in automobile ownership and vehicle travel demand, while resulting in more traffic congestion and automobile emissions. Land use, serving as a source of travel demand, can significantly impact travel behav...

18 CFR 1301.55 - Responding to demands.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... information to be withheld. (c) Factors to be considered in determining whether requested testimony or records... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Responding to demands... Proceedings § 1301.55 Responding to demands. Generally, authorization to provide the requested material or...

Movement Characteristics Analysis and Dynamic Simulation of Collaborative Measuring Robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

guoqing, MA; li, LIU; zhenglin, YU; guohua, CAO; yanbin, ZHENG

2017-03-01

Human-machine collaboration is becoming increasingly more necessary, and so collaborative robot applications are also in high demand. We selected a UR10 robot as our research subject for this study. First, we applied D-H coordinate transformation of the robot to establish a link system, and we then used inverse transformation to solve the robot’s inverse kinematics and find all the joints. Use Lagrange method to analysis UR robot dynamics; use ADAMS multibody dynamics simulation software to dynamic simulation; verifying the correctness of the derived kinetic models.

School Factors Underlying Demand for Private Supplementary Tutoring in English: Urban and Rural Variations in Bangladesh

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahmud, Rafsan; Bray, Mark

2017-01-01

Private supplementary tutoring has long existed in Bangladesh, as elsewhere in the world, but in recent decades has become much more visible. Much tutoring "shadows" or reproduces formal schooling as fee-based academic teaching outside school hours. This paper focuses on school factors that shape demand for private supplementary tutoring…

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs — Calibration Report for San Mateo Testbed.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-22

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - calibration report for Dallas testbed : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — gaps, challenges and future research.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-01

The primary objective of AMS project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. Through this p...

Understanding the Online Informal Learning of English as a Complex Dynamic System: An Emic Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sockett, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

Research into the online informal learning of English has already shown it to be a widespread phenomenon involving a range of comprehension and production activities such as viewing original version television series, listening to music on demand and social networking with other English users. Dynamic systems theory provides a suitable framework…

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - calibration Report for Phoenix Testbed : Final Report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — leveraging AMS testbed outputs for ATDM analysis – a primer.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-01

The primary objective of AMS Testbed project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. Throug...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - San Mateo Testbed Analysis Plan : Final Report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-29

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Physically demanding situations as predictors of disability pensioning with soft tissue rheumatism among persons 30-39 years old in Norway, 1981-90.

PubMed

Holte, Hilde H; Tambs, Kristian; Bjerkedal, Tor

2002-08-01

Physically demanding work is a predictor of disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diseases. Being a parent is probably also physically demanding. Having manual work and being a parent will be analyzed as possible predictors of becoming a disability pensioner with soft tissue rheumatism (DPSTR) after controlling for level of education, employment, number of hours worked, income, age, sex, and marital status. In this prospective study based on census data of persons 30-39 years old in 1980, predictors of becoming DPSTR during the followup period 1981-90 were identified by logistic regression analysis. Manual work was a predictor for becoming DPSTR for both men and women, while being a parent was neither a risk factor nor a protective factor for becoming DPSTR. Being employed was a predictor of becoming DPSTR for married women, but a protective factor for unmarried women and all men. Low level of education and being married or divorced were predictors of becoming DPSTR for both men and women. Working part time and having low income were predictors of becoming DPSTR among men. Physically demanding employment, but not a physically demanding private life, predicts becoming DPSTR. This may reflect that factors concerning a patient's private life are not taken into account when evaluating whether or not a disability pension should be granted, at least not for patients with uncertain medical conditions.

Job Demands and Job Control as Predictors of Depressive Symptoms: Moderating Effects of Negative Childhood Socioemotional Experiences.

PubMed

Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Virtanen, Marianna; Kivimäki, Mika; Hintsanen, Mirka; Hintsa, Taina; Jokela, Markus; Puttonen, Sampsa; Joensuu, Matti; Lipsanen, Jari; Raitakari, Olli T; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa

2016-10-01

There have been calls to know more about vulnerability factors that may predispose to adverse health outcomes at work. We examined if childhood adverse experiences would affect vulnerability to psychosocial stress factors at work. A nationally representative sample of 1546 Finnish men and women was followed up from childhood to adulthood. Childhood adverse experiences consisted of socioeconomic and emotional factors. Job demands and job control were measured 21 years later, and depressive symptoms were measured 21 and 27 years after the childhood measurements. Job demands predicted depressive symptoms over 6 years, and the association was modified by childhood emotional adversity. Participants with three or more emotional adversities in childhood had more depressive symptoms in response to high job demands compared with participants with zero or one emotional adversities in childhood (Betas = -1.40 and -2.01, ps < 0.05 and <0.01). No such moderating effect by childhood adverse experiences was found for the association between job control and depressive symptoms. Although modest in effect size, these findings provide a developmental viewpoint for understanding the role of childhood experiences in work-related stress factors. Such knowledge can enhance understanding of individual differences in vulnerability to the demands of working life. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factors affecting red blood cell storage age at the time of transfusion.

PubMed

Dzik, Walter H; Beckman, Neil; Murphy, Michael F; Delaney, Meghan; Flanagan, Peter; Fung, Mark; Germain, Marc; Haspel, Richard L; Lozano, Miguel; Sacher, Ronald; Szczepiorkowski, Zbigniew; Wendel, Silvano

2013-12-01

Clinical trials are investigating the potential benefit resulting from a reduced maximum storage interval for red blood cells (RBCs). The key drivers that determine RBC age at the time of issue vary among individual hospitals. Although progressive reduction in the maximum storage period of RBCs would be expected to result in smaller hospital inventories and reduced blood availability, the magnitude of the effect is unknown. Data on current hospital blood inventories were collected from 11 hospitals and three blood centers in five nations. A general predictive model for the age of RBCs at the time of issue was developed based on considerations of demand for RBCs in the hospital. Age of RBCs at issue is sensitive to the following factors: ABO group, storage age at the time of receipt by the hospital, the restock interval, inventory reserve, mean demand, and variation in demand. A simple model, based on hospital demand, may serve as the basis for examining factors affecting the storage age of RBCs in hospital inventories. The model suggests that the age of RBCs at the time of their issue to the patient depends on factors external to the hospital transfusion service. Any substantial change in the expiration date of stored RBCs will need to address the broad variation in demand for RBCs while attempting to balance considerations of availability and blood wastage. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

Estimating the Marginal Effect of Socioeconomic Factors on the Demand of Specialty Drugs

PubMed Central

Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe Hosseini; Barouni, Mohsen; Orojloo, Parvane Heidari; Mehraban, Sattar

2015-01-01

Given the growing importance and role of drugs in the treatment of diseases, as well as replacement of them rather than expensive and often unsafe procedures, study of socioeconomicfactors affecting future demand for them seems necessary. we seek to examine the extent of to which socioeconomic factors affect specialty medicine use by the patients.using data from questionnaires completed by 280 patients with multiple sclerosis, hemophilia, thalassemia, and chronic kidney disease, we estimate marginal effect of significant variables in probitmodel. We found that the need for the patient(ME=0.858), deterioration of the patient (ME=-0.001), household size (ME =0.0004), House Ownership (ME=-0.002), gender (ME=-0.04), income (ME=-0.0007), education (ME=-0.0021) and job (ME=-0.0021) are significant variables affecting demand for specialty drugs. We conclude that it can be programmed to promote and protect the welfare of patients by specific factors such as income, and largely affect the demand of medication and medical services. Therefore economic aid to these patients should not be limited only to medical subsidies, especially in patients with MS, income and welfare can reduce drug demand. PMID:25716405

Estimating the marginal effect of socioeconomic factors on the demand of specialty drugs.

PubMed

Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Barouni, Mohsen; Orojloo, Parvane Heidari; Mehraban, Sattar

2014-09-25

Given the growing importance and role of drugs in the treatment of diseases, as well as replacement of them rather than expensive and often unsafe procedures, study of socioeconomicfactors affecting future demand for them seems necessary.we seek to examine the extent of to which socioeconomic factors affect specialty medicine use by the patients.using data from questionnaires completed by 280 patients with multiple sclerosis, hemophilia, thalassemia, and chronic kidney disease, we estimate marginal effect of significant variables in probit model.We found that the need for the patient(ME = 0.858), deterioration of the patient (ME = -0.001), household size (ME = 0.0004), House Ownership (ME = -0.002), gender (ME = -0.04), income (ME = -0.0007), education (ME = -0.0021) and job (ME = -0.0021) are significant variables affecting demand for specialty drugs. We conclude that it can be programmed to promote and protect the welfare of patients by specific factors such as income, and largely affect the demand of medication and medical services. Therefore economic aid to these patients should not be limited only to medical subsidies, especially in patients with MS, income and welfare can reduce drug demand.

Using Resource Economics to Anticipate Forest Land Use Change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

Treesearch

Peter J. Parks; Ian W. Hardie; Cheryl A. Tedder; David N. Wear

2000-01-01

Demands for forest, farm, and developed land are evolving in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. The demand for land in developed uses, as well as demands for various forest and farm products are changing in response to population growth, demographic shifts, and market forces. As demand factors change so do relative land values. Land area in future forest, farm, and...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konis, Kyle; Orosz, Michael; Sintov, Nicole

Competition-based “energy saving” interventions are increasingly promoted as an effective strategy for reducing energy consumption in buildings with large occupant controlled electrical loads. However, the factors that drive energy savings in such interventions are not well understood, nor are the impacts of short-term competitions on long-term energy performance. A total of 39 8-occupant suites in a freshman residence hall were instrumented with “smart” electric meters, which recorded circuit-level electricity consumption at 15-minute intervals. During a three-week Fall 2014 competition, suites competed to reduce their overall electricity demand and achieved a 6.4% reduction in whole-building demand overall and a 12% reductionmore » during hours of peak demand (from 12:00 to 19:00), despite peak seasonal temperatures and all-time record electricity demand. Analysis incorporating weather-normalized HVAC demand after the competition showed a significant “rebound” for a large portion of the suites (19), however 12 suites made further reductions, and the remainder maintained demand at the competition level. As a result, we compared energy data with self-reported survey data and identified self-efficacy beliefs, pro-environmental behaviors, and sense of affiliation with other residents of the hall as key factors distinguishing the suites with the greatest and most persistent reductions in demand from suites that maintained or increased demand.« less

Asymmetric information and macroeconomic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Raymond J.; Aoki, Masanao; Roy Frieden, B.

2010-09-01

We show how macroeconomic dynamics can be derived from asymmetric information. As an illustration of the utility of this approach we derive the equilibrium density, non-equilibrium densities and the equation of motion for the response to a demand shock for productivity in a simple economy. Novel consequences of this approach include a natural incorporation of time dependence into macroeconomics and a common information-theoretic basis for economics and other fields seeking to link micro-dynamics and macro-observables.

Nitrogen dynamics in managed boreal forests: Recent advances and future research directions.

PubMed

Sponseller, Ryan A; Gundale, Michael J; Futter, Martyn; Ring, Eva; Nordin, Annika; Näsholm, Torgny; Laudon, Hjalmar

2016-02-01

Nitrogen (N) availability plays multiple roles in the boreal landscape, as a limiting nutrient to forest growth, determinant of terrestrial biodiversity, and agent of eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems. We review existing research on forest N dynamics in northern landscapes and address the effects of management and environmental change on internal cycling and export. Current research foci include resolving the nutritional importance of different N forms to trees and establishing how tree-mycorrhizal relationships influence N limitation. In addition, understanding how forest responses to external N inputs are mediated by above- and belowground ecosystem compartments remains an important challenge. Finally, forestry generates a mosaic of successional patches in managed forest landscapes, with differing levels of N input, biological demand, and hydrological loss. The balance among these processes influences the temporal patterns of stream water chemistry and the long-term viability of forest growth. Ultimately, managing forests to keep pace with increasing demands for biomass production, while minimizing environmental degradation, will require multi-scale and interdisciplinary perspectives on landscape N dynamics.

Dynamics of assembly production flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezaki, Takahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

2015-06-01

Despite recent developments in management theory, maintaining a manufacturing schedule remains difficult because of production delays and fluctuations in demand and supply of materials. The response of manufacturing systems to such disruptions to dynamic behavior has been rarely studied. To capture these responses, we investigate a process that models the assembly of parts into end products. The complete assembly process is represented by a directed tree, where the smallest parts are injected at leaves and the end products are removed at the root. A discrete assembly process, represented by a node on the network, integrates parts, which are then sent to the next downstream node as a single part. The model exhibits some intriguing phenomena, including overstock cascade, phase transition in terms of demand and supply fluctuations, nonmonotonic distribution of stockout in the network, and the formation of a stockout path and stockout chains. Surprisingly, these rich phenomena result from only the nature of distributed assembly processes. From a physical perspective, these phenomena provide insight into delay dynamics and inventory distributions in large-scale manufacturing systems.

Dynamic multicast routing scheme in WDM optical network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yonghua; Dong, Zhiling; Yao, Hong; Yang, Jianyong; Liu, Yibin

2007-11-01

During the information era, the Internet and the service of World Wide Web develop rapidly. Therefore, the wider and wider bandwidth is required with the lower and lower cost. The demand of operation turns out to be diversified. Data, images, videos and other special transmission demands share the challenge and opportunity with the service providers. Simultaneously, the electrical equipment has approached their limit. So the optical communication based on the wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) and the optical cross-connects (OXCs) shows great potentials and brilliant future to build an optical network based on the unique technical advantage and multi-wavelength characteristic. In this paper, we propose a multi-layered graph model with inter-path between layers to solve the problem of multicast routing wavelength assignment (RWA) contemporarily by employing an efficient graph theoretic formulation. And at the same time, an efficient dynamic multicast algorithm named Distributed Message Copying Multicast (DMCM) mechanism is also proposed. The multicast tree with minimum hops can be constructed dynamically according to this proposed scheme.

An Agent-Based Modeling Framework and Application for the Generic Nuclear Fuel Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidden, Matthew J.

Key components of a novel methodology and implementation of an agent-based, dynamic nuclear fuel cycle simulator, Cyclus , are presented. The nuclear fuel cycle is a complex, physics-dependent supply chain. To date, existing dynamic simulators have not treated constrained fuel supply, time-dependent, isotopic-quality based demand, or fuel fungibility particularly well. Utilizing an agent-based methodology that incorporates sophisticated graph theory and operations research techniques can overcome these deficiencies. This work describes a simulation kernel and agents that interact with it, highlighting the Dynamic Resource Exchange (DRE), the supply-demand framework at the heart of the kernel. The key agent-DRE interaction mechanisms are described, which enable complex entity interaction through the use of physics and socio-economic models. The translation of an exchange instance to a variant of the Multicommodity Transportation Problem, which can be solved feasibly or optimally, follows. An extensive investigation of solution performance and fidelity is then presented. Finally, recommendations for future users of Cyclus and the DRE are provided.

Optimizing Natural Gas Networks through Dynamic Manifold Theory and a Decentralized Algorithm: Belgium Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, Caleb; Winfrey, Leigh

2014-10-01

Natural Gas is a major energy source in Europe, yet political instabilities have the potential to disrupt access and supply. Energy resilience is an increasingly essential construct and begins with transmission network design. This study proposes a new way of thinking about modelling natural gas flow. Rather than relying on classical economic models, this problem is cast into a time-dependent Hamiltonian dynamics discussion. Traditional Natural Gas constraints, including inelastic demand and maximum/minimum pipe flows, are portrayed as energy functions and built into the dynamics of each pipe flow. Doing so allows the constraints to be built into the dynamics of each pipeline. As time progresses in the model, natural gas flow rates find the minimum energy, thus the optimal gas flow rates. The most important result of this study is using dynamical principles to ensure the output of natural gas at demand nodes remains constant, which is important for country to country natural gas transmission. Another important step in this study is building the dynamics of each flow in a decentralized algorithm format. Decentralized regulation has solved congestion problems for internet data flow, traffic flow, epidemiology, and as demonstrated in this study can solve the problem of Natural Gas congestion. A mathematical description is provided for how decentralized regulation leads to globally optimized network flow. Furthermore, the dynamical principles and decentralized algorithm are applied to a case study of the Fluxys Belgium Natural Gas Network.

Family demands, social support and family functioning in Taiwanese families rearing children with Down syndrome.

PubMed

Hsiao, C-Y

2014-06-01

Down syndrome (DS) affects not only children but also their families. Much remains to be learned about factors that influence how families of children with DS function, especially families in non-Western populations. The purpose of this cross-sectional, correlational study was to examine how family demographics, family demands and social support relate to family functioning as well as the potential mediating effect of social support on the relationship between family demands and family functioning in Taiwanese families of children with DS. One hundred and fifty-five parents (80 mothers and 75 fathers) from 83 families independently completed mailed questionnaires. Data were analysed using a principal component analysis and mixed linear modelling. Families having older children with DS, greater parental education, higher family income, fewer family demands and greater social support contributed to healthier family functioning. Social support partially mediated the effects of family demands on family functioning. Family demographics, family demands and social support appear to be important factors that may play a critical role in how Taiwanese families respond to the birth of a child with DS. Care of children with DS and their families is likely to be more effective if professionals working with these families are aware of factors that contribute to healthy family functioning. © 2013 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NAPS as an Alertness Management Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosekind, Mark R.; Smith, Roy M.; Miller, Donna L.; Co, Elizabeth L.; Gregory, Kevin B.; Gander, Philippa H.; Lebacqz, J. Victor

2001-01-01

Today, 24-hour operations are necessary to meet the demands of our society and the requirements of our industrialized global economy. These around-the-clock demands pose unique physiological challenges for the humans who remain central to safe and productive operations. Optimal alertness and performance are critical factors that are increasingly challenged by unusual, extended, or changing work/rest schedules. Technological advancements and automated systems can exacerbate the challenges faced by the human factor in these environments. Shift work, transportation demands, and continuous operations engender sleep loss and circadian disruption. Both of these physiological factors can lead to increased sleepiness, decreased performance, and a reduced margin of safety. These factors can increase vulnerability to incidents and accidents in operational settings. The consequences can have both societal effects (e.g., major destructive accidents such as Three Mile Island, Exxon Valdez, Bhopal) and personal effects (e.g., an accident driving home after a night shift).

A Sarsa(λ)-based control model for real-time traffic light coordination.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoke; Zhu, Fei; Liu, Quan; Fu, Yuchen; Huang, Wei

2014-01-01

Traffic problems often occur due to the traffic demands by the outnumbered vehicles on road. Maximizing traffic flow and minimizing the average waiting time are the goals of intelligent traffic control. Each junction wants to get larger traffic flow. During the course, junctions form a policy of coordination as well as constraints for adjacent junctions to maximize their own interests. A good traffic signal timing policy is helpful to solve the problem. However, as there are so many factors that can affect the traffic control model, it is difficult to find the optimal solution. The disability of traffic light controllers to learn from past experiences caused them to be unable to adaptively fit dynamic changes of traffic flow. Considering dynamic characteristics of the actual traffic environment, reinforcement learning algorithm based traffic control approach can be applied to get optimal scheduling policy. The proposed Sarsa(λ)-based real-time traffic control optimization model can maintain the traffic signal timing policy more effectively. The Sarsa(λ)-based model gains traffic cost of the vehicle, which considers delay time, the number of waiting vehicles, and the integrated saturation from its experiences to learn and determine the optimal actions. The experiment results show an inspiring improvement in traffic control, indicating the proposed model is capable of facilitating real-time dynamic traffic control.

A Socio-Hydrological Model of the Voluntary Urban Water Conservation Behavior during Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangwan, N.; Eisma, J. A.; Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.

2016-12-01

Several cities across the globe are increasingly struggling to meet the water demands of their population. By 2050, nearly 160 million urban dwellers are likely to face perennial water shortage due to ever rising population numbers and climate change. As observed once again during recent drought in California, voluntary water conservation is a key approach for managing urban water availability during periods of constrained supply. It relies on behavioral adaptation that is critical for long-term reductions in water use and building drought resilient communities. Strong interdependencies between human group behavior and regional hydrology in this context entail that the two components be coupled together in a socio-hydrology model to fully understand the dynamics of urban water systems. This work proposes a conceptual framework for one such model and simulates the dynamics of a voluntary conservation program in Marin Municipal Water District, California using dynamic systems modeling approach. Through this model, we plan to assess the effects of different social factors (such as social concern and conformist tendencies) and climato-hydrological conditions (viz. storage levels and weather forecast) on the trajectory of a voluntary conservation program. Our preliminary results have indicated several `tipping points' which can be capitalized on by policy makers to boost conservation at low social costs.

The NUONCE engine for LEO networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, Martin W.; Estabrook, Polly

1995-01-01

Typical LEO networks use constellations which provide a uniform coverage. However, the demand for telecom service is dynamic and unevenly distributed around the world. We examine a more efficient and cost effective design by matching the satellite coverage with the cyclical demand for service around the world. Our approach is to use a non-uniform satellite distribution for the network. We have named this constellation design NUONCE for Non Uniform Optimal Network Communications Engine.

Demand for long acting contraceptive methods and associated factors among family planning service users, Northwest Ethiopia: a health facility based cross sectional study.

PubMed

Yalew, Saleamlak Adbaru; Zeleke, Berihun Megabiaw; Teferra, Alemayehu Shimeka

2015-02-04

Demand for long acting contraceptive methods is one of the key factors for total fertility rate and reproductive health issues. Increased demand for these methods can decline fertility rate through spacing and limiting family size in turn improving maternal and family health and socioeconomic development of a country. The aim of this study was to assess demand for long acting contraceptives and associated factors among family planning users in Debre-Tabor Town, Northwest Ethiopia. Facility based cross-sectional study was conducted from July to August 2013. Data was collected on 487 current family planning users through face to face interview using structured questionnaire. Study participants were selected by systematic sampling method. Data were entered in to Epi Info and analyzed by using SPSS version 20. Bi-variable and multi-variable regression analyses were done to identify factors associated with demand for long acting contraceptive methods. Odds ratio with 95% CI was used to assess the association between the independent variables and demand for long acting family planning methods. The study showed that, demand for long acting contraceptives was 17%. Only 9.2% of the women were using long acting contraceptive methods (met need). About 7.8% of women were using short acting methods while they actually want to use long acting methods (unmet need). Demand for LACMs was positively associated 3 with being a daily labour (AOR = 3.87, 95% CI = [1.06, 14.20]), being a student (AOR = 2.64, 95% CI = [1.27, 5.47]), no future birth intensions (AOR = 2.17, 95% CI = [1.12, 4.23]), having five or more children (AOR = 1.67, 95% CI = [1.58, 4.83]), deciding together with husbands for using the methods (AOR = 2.73, 95% CI = [1.40, 5.32]) and often having discussion with husband (AOR = 3.89, 95% CI = [1.98, 7.65]). Clients treated poorly by the health care providers during taking the services was negatively associated with demand for LACMs (AOR = 0.42, 95% CI = [0.24, 0.74]). Demand for long acting family planning methods was observed to be lower as compared to other studies. There were also significant proportion of women having unmet need for long acting methods - women using short acting method while actually wanting long acting methods. Therefore, it is necessary to create and increase awareness and advocacy on demand for long acting contraceptive methods considering women and their husbands. Moreover, emphasis should be given to service provision of the methods.

Potential Effects of Health Care Policy Decisions on Physician Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia, Christopher; Goodrich, Michael

2011-01-01

Many regions in America are experiencing downward trends in the number of practicing physicians and the number of available physician hours, resulting in a worrisome decrease in the availability of health care services. Recent changes in American health care legislation may induce a rapid change in the demand for health care services, which in turn will result in a new supply-demand equilibrium . In this paper we develop a system dynamics model linking physician availability to health care demand and profitability. We use this model to explore scenarios based on different initial conditions and describe possible outcomes for a range of different policy decisions.

Coordinating two-period ordering and advertising policies in a dynamic market with stochastic demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junping; Wang, Shengdong; Min, Jie

2015-03-01

In this paper, we study the optimal two-stage advertising and ordering policies and the channel coordination issues in a supply chain composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. The manufacturer sells a short-life-cycle product through the retailer facing stochastic demand in dynamic markets characterised by price declines and product obsolescence. Following a two-period newsvendor framework, we develop two members' optimal ordering and advertising models under both the centralised and decentralised settings, and present the closed-form solutions to the developed models as well. Moreover, we design a two-period revenue-sharing contract, and develop sufficient conditions such that the channel coordination can be achieved and a win-win outcome can be guaranteed. Our analysis suggests that the centralised decision creates an incentive for the retailer to increase the advertising investments in two periods and put the purchase forward, but the decentralised decision mechanism forces the retailer to decrease the advertising investments in two periods and postpone/reduce its purchase in the first period. This phenomenon becomes more evident when demand variability is high.

Integration of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and probabilistic dynamic programming in formulating an optimal fleet management model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teoh, Lay Eng; Khoo, Hooi Ling

2013-09-01

This study deals with two major aspects of airlines, i.e. supply and demand management. The aspect of supply focuses on the mathematical formulation of an optimal fleet management model to maximize operational profit of the airlines while the aspect of demand focuses on the incorporation of mode choice modeling as parts of the developed model. The proposed methodology is outlined in two-stage, i.e. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is first adopted to capture mode choice modeling in order to quantify the probability of probable phenomena (for aircraft acquisition/leasing decision). Then, an optimization model is developed as a probabilistic dynamic programming model to determine the optimal number and types of aircraft to be acquired and/or leased in order to meet stochastic demand during the planning horizon. The findings of an illustrative case study show that the proposed methodology is viable. The results demonstrate that the incorporation of mode choice modeling could affect the operational profit and fleet management decision of the airlines at varying degrees.

Modeling operational behavior of a disassembly line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kizilkaya, Elif A.; Gupta, Surendra M.

2004-12-01

In this paper we present a dynamic kanban (pull) system specifically developed for disassembly lines. This type of kanban system is much more complex than the traditional kanban system used in assembly lines. For instance, unlike the assembly line where the external demand occurs only at the last station, the demands in the disassembly case also occur at any of the intermittent stations. The reason is that as a product moves on the disassembly line, various parts are disassembled at every station and accumulated at that station. Therefore, there are as many demand sources as there are number of parts. We consider a case example involving the end-of-life products. Based on the precedence relationships and other criteria such as hazardous properties of the parts, we balance the disassembly line. The results of the disassembly line-balancing problem (DLBP) are used as input to the proposed dynamic kanban system for disassembly line (DKSDL). We compare the performance of the DKSDL to the modified kanban system for disassembly line (MKSDL), which was previously introduced by the authors. We show, via simulation, that the DKSDL is far superior to MKSDL considered.

Restructuring the rotor analysis program C-60

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The continuing evolution of the rotary wing industry demands increasing analytical capabilities. To keep up with this demand, software must be structured to accommodate change. The approach discussed for meeting this demand is to restructure an existing analysis. The motivational factors, basic principles, application techniques, and practical lessons from experience with this restructuring effort are reviewed.

An econometric model of the hardwood lumber market

Treesearch

William G. Luppold

1982-01-01

A recursive econometric model with causal flow originating from the demand relationship is used to analyze the effects of exogenous variables on quantity and price of hardwood lumber. Wage rates, interest rates, stumpage price, lumber exports, and price of lumber demanders' output were the major factors influencing quantities demanded and supplied and hardwood...

Teacher Shortages: Truth and Consequences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tooredman, Kathryn J.

This paper provides a broad overview of the teacher shortage situation and concludes that shortages may occur during the next 10 years, depending upon the factors of supply and demand. Demand, it appears, will increase until an additional 200,000 teachers will be needed by 1990. The supply of teachers may increase enough to met this demand, but…

The Demand for Training. Conference Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karmel, Tom; Cully, Mark

2009-01-01

This paper was presented in Sydney in September 2008 at a seminar conducted by Skills Australia and the Academy of Social Sciences. It examines the demand for training. It concentrates on the factors that affect individual and employer demand, and points out that accredited vocational education and training (VET) need to be considered in the…

Cost, Quality and Enrollment Demand at Liberal Arts Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buss, Christian; Parker, Jeffrey; Rivenburg, Jon

2004-01-01

This paper examines the effects of cost, quality and macroeconomic factors on the demand for higher education (represented by the share of admitted freshmen choosing to enroll) at a group of selective liberal arts colleges over the period from 1988 to 1998. Students are segregated by their financial-aid status with different demand equations…

Economic, demographic and social factors of energy demand in Mexican households, 2008-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez Pena, Rafael

This research project focuses on estimating the effect of economic, demographic, and social factors in residential energy demand in Mexico from 2008 to 2014. Therefore, it estimates demand equations for electricity, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), coal and natural gas using Mexican household data from 2008 to 2014. It also applies accessibility theory and it estimates energy access indicators using different specifications of demand for LPG in 2014. Sprawl measures, gravity model, and central place theory are the accessibility theory supporting the energy access indicators. Results suggest the greater the household income, the population size, the educational level of the householder, the energy access, and the lower the energy price and the household size, the greater the demand for energy in Mexico from 2008 to 2014. The greater the education, the lower the demand for firewood and coal. LPG and firewood have a monopolistically competitive market structure. Energy access indicators informed by accessibility theory are statistically significant and show the expected sign when applied to LPG in Mexican household in 2014.

Spanish version of Bus Drivers' Job Demands Scale (BDJD-24).

PubMed

Boada-Grau, Joan; Prizmic-Kuzmica, Aldo-Javier; González-Fernández, Marcos-David; Vigil-Colet, Andreu

2013-01-01

Karasek and Theorell's Job Demands-Control Model argues that adverse health-related outcomes, both psychological and physiological, arise from a combination of high job demand and a low level of job control. The objective was to adapt Meijman and Kompier's Bus Drivers' Job Demands Scale (BDJD-24), which enables us to assess the job demands of bus drivers, to Spanish. The final version of the Spanish adaptation was applied to a sample made up of 287 bus drivers living in Spain (80.1% men and 19.9% women), whose average age was 40.44 (SD= 11.78). The results yielded a three-factor structure for the scale used: Time Pressure, Safety, and Passengers. These findings confirm that the Spanish version replicates the factor structure of the original English scale. The reliability of the three subscales was acceptable, ranging from .75 to .84. Furthermore, the subscales were also related to different external correlates and to other scales and showed good convergent and criterion validity. The present instrument can be used to evaluate job demands of bus drivers, as its psychometrics are substantially sound.

A Cross-National Analysis of the Student- and School-Level Factors Affecting the Demand for Private Tutoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Kyoung-Oh; Park, Hyun-Jeong; Sang, Kyong-Ah

2013-01-01

Private tutoring has become a worldwide phenomenon, yet there is little empirical evidence for the main factors leading the demand for private tutoring across nations. Using data from the Third International Mathematics and Science Study of 2003, this study classified the countries into four different groups according to the proportion of student…

Factors Affecting Individual Education Demand at the Entrance to University: Adnan Menderes University Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sarpkaya, Ruhi

2010-01-01

The aim of this research is to determine the factors affecting individual education demands at the entrance to university. The research is in survey model. The universe of the study consists of 1630 freshmen at the faculties and vocational schools of Adnan Menderes University, Aydin. 574 students from 7 schools were included in the sample. The…

Biomechanical and psychosocial risk factors for low back pain at work.

PubMed Central

Kerr, M S; Frank, J W; Shannon, H S; Norman, R W; Wells, R P; Neumann, W P; Bombardier, C

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study determined whether the physical and psychosocial demands of work are associated with low back pain. METHODS: A case-control approach was used. Case subjects (n = 137) reported a new episode of low back pain to their employer, a large automobile manufacturing complex. Control subjects were randomly selected from the study base as cases accrued (n = 179) or were matched to cases by exact job (n = 65). Individual, clinical, and psychosocial variables were assessed by interview. Physical demands were assessed with direct workplace measurements of subjects at their usual jobs. The analysis used multiple logistic regression adjusted for individual characteristics. RESULTS: Self-reported risk factors included a physically demanding job, a poor workplace social environment, inconsistency between job and education level, better job satisfaction, and better coworker support. Low job control showed a borderline association. Physical-measure risk factors included peak lumbar shear force, peak load handled, and cumulative lumbar disc compression. Low body mass index and prior low back pain compensation claims were the only significant individual characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified specific physical and psychosocial demands of work as independent risk factors for low back pain. PMID:11441733

Joint Energy Supply and Routing Path Selection for Rechargeable Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Tang, Liangrui; Cai, Jinqi; Yan, Jiangyu; Zhou, Zhenyu

2018-06-17

The topic of network lifetime has been attracting much research attention because of its importance in prolonging the standing operation of battery-restricted wireless sensor networks, and the rechargeable wireless sensor network has emerged as a promising solution. In this paper, we propose a joint energy supply and routing path selection algorithm to extend the network lifetime based on an initiative power supply. We develop a two-stage energy replenishment strategy to supplement the energy consumption of nodes as much as possible. Furthermore, the influence of charging factors on the selection of next-hop nodes in data routing is considered. The simulation results show that our algorithm effectively prolong the network lifetime, and different demands of network delay and energy consumption can be obtained by dynamically adjusting parameters.

Electrical utilities model for determining electrical distribution capacity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fritz, R. L.

1997-09-03

In its simplest form, this model was to obtain meaningful data on the current state of the Site`s electrical transmission and distribution assets, and turn this vast collection of data into useful information. The resulting product is an Electrical Utilities Model for Determining Electrical Distribution Capacity which provides: current state of the electrical transmission and distribution systems; critical Hanford Site needs based on outyear planning documents; decision factor model. This model will enable Electrical Utilities management to improve forecasting requirements for service levels, budget, schedule, scope, and staffing, and recommend the best path forward to satisfy customer demands at themore » minimum risk and least cost to the government. A dynamic document, the model will be updated annually to reflect changes in Hanford Site activities.« less

The Market Demand for Air Transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taneja, N.

1972-01-01

Although the presentation will touch upon the areas of market for air transportation, the theoretical foundations of the demand function, the demand models, and model selection and evaluation, the emphasis of the presentation will be on a qualitative description of the factors affecting the demand for air transportation. The presentation will rely heavily on the results of market surveys carried out by the Port of New York Authority, the University of Michigan, and Census of Transportation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swift, D.W.

The author develops a code to simulate the dynamics in the magnetosphere system. The calculation involves a single level, structured, curvilinear 2D mesh. The mesh density is varied to support regions which demand higher resolution.

A hybrid CS-SA intelligent approach to solve uncertain dynamic facility layout problems considering dependency of demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moslemipour, Ghorbanali

2018-07-01

This paper aims at proposing a quadratic assignment-based mathematical model to deal with the stochastic dynamic facility layout problem. In this problem, product demands are assumed to be dependent normally distributed random variables with known probability density function and covariance that change from period to period at random. To solve the proposed model, a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm is proposed by combining the simulated annealing and clonal selection algorithms. The proposed model and the hybrid algorithm are verified and validated using design of experiment and benchmark methods. The results show that the hybrid algorithm has an outstanding performance from both solution quality and computational time points of view. Besides, the proposed model can be used in both of the stochastic and deterministic situations.

A Decentralized Scheduling Policy for a Dynamically Reconfigurable Production System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordani, Stefano; Lujak, Marin; Martinelli, Francesco

In this paper, the static layout of a traditional multi-machine factory producing a set of distinct goods is integrated with a set of mobile production units - robots. The robots dynamically change their work position to increment the product rate of the different typologies of products in respect to the fluctuations of the demands and production costs during a given time horizon. Assuming that the planning time horizon is subdivided into a finite number of time periods, this particularly flexible layout requires the definition and the solution of a complex scheduling problem, involving for each period of the planning time horizon, the determination of the position of the robots, i.e., the assignment to the respective tasks in order to minimize production costs given the product demand rates during the planning time horizon.

Alterations in knee kinematics after partial medial meniscectomy are activity dependent.

PubMed

Edd, Shannon N; Netravali, Nathan A; Favre, Julien; Giori, Nicholas J; Andriacchi, Thomas P

2015-06-01

Alterations in knee kinematics after partial meniscectomy have been linked to the increased risk of osteoarthritis in this population. Understanding differences in kinematics during static versus dynamic activities of increased demand can provide important information regarding the possible underlying mechanisms of these alterations. Differences in the following 2 kinematics measures will increase with activity demand: (1) the offset toward external tibial rotation for the meniscectomized limb compared with the contralateral limb during stance and (2) the difference in knee flexion angle at initial foot contact between the meniscectomized and contralateral limbs. Controlled laboratory study. This study compared side-to-side differences in knee flexion and rotation angles during static and dynamic activities. Thirteen patients (2 female) were tested in a motion capture laboratory at 6 ± 2 months after unilateral, arthroscopic, partial medial meniscectomy during a static reference pose and during 3 dynamic activities: walking, stair ascent, and stair descent. The meniscectomized limb demonstrated more external tibial rotation compared with the contralateral limb during dynamic activities, and there was a trend that this offset increased with activity demand (repeated-measures analysis of variance [ANOVA] for activity, P = .07; mean limb difference: static pose, -0.1° ± 3.3°, P = .5; walking, 1.2° ± 3.8°, P = .1; stair ascent, 2.0° ± 3.2°, P = .02; stair descent, 3.0° ± 3.5°, P = .005). Similarly, the meniscectomized knee was more flexed at initial contact than the contralateral limb during dynamic activities (repeated-measures ANOVA for activity P = .006; mean limb difference: reference pose, 1.0° ± 2.5°, P = .09; walking, 2.0° ± 3.9°, P = .05; stair ascent, 5.9° ± 5.3°, P = .009; stair descent, 3.5° ± 4.0°, P = .004). These results suggest both a structural element and a potential muscular element for the differences in kinematics after partial medial meniscectomy and highlight the importance of challenging the knee with activities of increased demands to detect differences in kinematics from the contralateral limb. With further investigation, these findings could help guide clinical rehabilitation of patients with torn meniscus tissue, especially in the context of the patients' increased risk of joint degeneration. © 2015 The Author(s).

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — summary report for the Chicago testbed. [supporting datasets - Chicago Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The datasets in this zip file are in support of Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) report FHWA-JPO-16-385, "Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applica...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs : Dallas testbed analysis plan. [supporting datasets - Dallas Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-26

The datasets in this zip file are in support of Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) report FHWA-JPO-16-385, "Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applica...

The Dynamics of the Aspirations and Demands of Different Generations of Russia's Young People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khotkina, Z. A.

2013-01-01

Survey data comparing the life aspirations of three generations of Russians show an increase from the level of the Soviet generation of young people to the perestroika generation, followed by a decline in the generation of young people who were born and grew up in today's "market" Russia. One chief cause of the downward dynamic of their…

How Dynamics of Learning Are Linked to Innovation Support Services: Insights from a Smallholder Commercialization Project in Kenya

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilelu, Catherine W.; Klerkx, Laurens; Leeuwis, Cees

2014-01-01

Purpose: The important role of learning is noted in the literature on demand-driven approaches to supporting agricultural innovation. Most of this literature has focused on macrolevel structural perspectives on the organization of pluralistic innovation support systems. This has provided little insight at the micro-level on the dynamics of demand…

Generator Dynamic Model Validation and Parameter Calibration Using Phasor Measurements at the Point of Connection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Zhenyu; Du, Pengwei; Kosterev, Dmitry

2013-05-01

Disturbance data recorded by phasor measurement units (PMU) offers opportunities to improve the integrity of dynamic models. However, manually tuning parameters through play-back events demands significant efforts and engineering experiences. In this paper, a calibration method using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) technique is proposed. The formulation of EKF with parameter calibration is discussed. Case studies are presented to demonstrate its validity. The proposed calibration method is cost-effective, complementary to traditional equipment testing for improving dynamic model quality.

Relations between work and upper extremity musculoskeletal problems (UEMSP) and the moderating role of psychosocial work factors on the relation between computer work and UEMSP.

PubMed

Nicolakakis, Nektaria; Stock, Susan R; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Kline, Rex; Messing, Karen

2017-11-01

Computer work has been identified as a risk factor for upper extremity musculoskeletal problems (UEMSP). But few studies have investigated how psychosocial and organizational work factors affect this relation. Nor have gender differences in the relation between UEMSP and these work factors  been studied. We sought to estimate: (1) the association between UEMSP and a range of physical, psychosocial and organizational work exposures, including the duration of computer work, and (2) the moderating effect of psychosocial work exposures on the relation between computer work and UEMSP. Using 2007-2008 Québec survey data on 2478 workers, we carried out gender-stratified multivariable logistic regression modeling and two-way interaction analyses. In both genders, odds of UEMSP were higher with exposure to high physical work demands and emotionally demanding work. Additionally among women, UEMSP were associated with duration of occupational computer exposure, sexual harassment, tense situations when dealing with clients, high quantitative demands and lack of prospects for promotion, and among men, with low coworker support, episodes of unemployment, low job security and contradictory work demands. Among women, the effect of computer work on UEMSP was considerably increased in the presence of emotionally demanding work, and may also be moderated by low recognition at work, contradictory work demands, and low supervisor support. These results suggest that the relations between UEMSP and computer work are moderated by psychosocial work exposures and that the relations between working conditions and UEMSP are somewhat different for each gender, highlighting the complexity of these relations and the importance of considering gender.

Anisotropic inflation with a non-minimally coupled electromagnetic field to gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adak, Muzaffer; Akarsu, Özgür; Dereli, Tekin; Sert, Özcan

2017-11-01

We consider the non-minimal model of gravity in Y(R) F2-form. We investigate a particular case of the model, for which the higher order derivatives are eliminated but the scalar curvature R is kept to be dynamical via the constraint YRFmnFmn =-2/κ2. The effective fluid obtained can be represented by interacting electromagnetic field and vacuum depending on Y(R), namely, the energy density of the vacuum tracks R while energy density of the conventional electromagnetic field is dynamically scaled with the factor Y(R)/2. We give exact solutions for anisotropic inflation by assuming the volume scale factor of the Universe exhibits a power-law expansion. The directional scale factors do not necessarily exhibit power-law expansion, which would give rise to a constant expansion anisotropy, but expand non-trivially and give rise to a non-monotonically evolving expansion anisotropy that eventually converges to a non-zero constant. Relying on this fact, we discuss the anisotropic e-fold during the inflation by considering observed scale invariance in CMB and demanding the Universe to undergo the same amount of e-folds in all directions. We calculate the residual expansion anisotropy at the end of inflation, though as a result of non-monotonic behaviour of expansion anisotropy all the axes of the Universe undergo the same of amount of e-folds by the end of inflation. We also discuss the generation of the modified electromagnetic field during the first few e-folds of the inflation and its persistence against to the vacuum till end of inflation.

Job demand and control in mid-life and physical and mental functioning in early old age: do childhood factors explain these associations in a British birth cohort?

PubMed Central

von Bonsdorff, Mikaela B; Cooper, Rachel; Kuh, Diana

2014-01-01

Objectives Adverse work-related exposures have been linked with decreased physical and mental functioning in later life, however, whether childhood factors explain the associations between work exposures and functioning is unknown. Our aim was to investigate if job demand and control in mid-life were related to self-reported physical and mental functioning in early old age and whether childhood factors explained these associations. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting England, Scotland and Wales. Participants and outcome measures Data come from the UK Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development, a cohort with follow-up since birth in 1946. 1485 occupationally active study members had data available on job demand and control in mid-life and on physical and mental functioning assessed using the Short Form-36 questionnaire at 60–64 years. Results Those with higher job control in mid-life had better physical functioning than those who reported lower job control (β 0.51, 95% CI 0.02 to 1.01, p=0.04 adjusted for adult confounders). Those with higher job demand in mid-life had poorer mental functioning (β −0.82, 95% CI −1.14 to −0.51, p<0.001). Associations between job control and mental functioning were similar but less pronounced. Adjustment for childhood factors (father's and mother's educational attainment, parents’ interest in school at age 7 and cognitive ability at age 8) partially explained the association between job control and physical functioning, but did not explain the association between job demand and mental functioning. Conclusions Job demand and control in mid-life are differentially associated with mental and physical functioning in early old age and some of these associations may be partially explained by childhood factors. PMID:25319998

Dynamics of electricity market correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Espinosa-Perez, G.; Urrea, R.

2009-06-01

Electricity market participants rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. However, forecasting is hampered by the non-linear and stochastic nature of price time series. Diverse modeling strategies, from neural networks to traditional transfer functions, have been explored. These approaches are based on the assumption that price series contain correlations that can be exploited for model-based prediction purposes. While many works have been devoted to the demand and price modeling, a limited number of reports on the nature and dynamics of electricity market correlations are available. This paper uses detrended fluctuation analysis to study correlations in the demand and price time series and takes the Australian market as a case study. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from hours to months. However, the Hurst exponent is not constant over time, and its time evolution was computed over a subsample moving window of 250 observations. The computations, also made for two Canadian markets, show that the correlations present important fluctuations over a seasonal one-year cycle. Interestingly, non-linearities (measured in terms of a multifractality index) and reduced price predictability are found for the June-July periods, while the converse behavior is displayed during the December-January period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that non-linear recursive models should be considered for accurate day-ahead price estimation. On the other hand, linear models seem to suffice for demand forecasting purposes.

Coupling Cellular Automata Land Use Change with Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, L.; Duffy, C.

2017-12-01

There has been extensive research on LUC modeling with broad applications to simulating urban growth and changing demographic patterns across multiple scales. The importance of land conversion is a critical issue in watershed scale studies and is generally not treated in most watershed modeling approaches. In this study we apply spatially explicit hydrologic and landuse change models and the Conestoga Watershed in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) partitions the water balance in space and time over the urban catchment, the coupled Cellular Automata Land Use Change model (CALUC) dynamically simulates the evolution of land use classes based on physical measures associated with population change and land use demand factors. The CALUC model is based on iteratively applying discrete rules to each individual spatial cell. The essence the CA modeling involves calculation of the Transition Potential (TP) for conversion of a grid cell from one land use class to another. This potential includes five factors: random perturbation, suitability, accessibility, neighborhood effect, inertia effects and zonal factors. In spite of simplicity, this CALUC model has been shown to be very effective for simulating LUC leading to the emergence of complex spatial patterns. The components of TP are derived from present land use data for landuse reanalysis and for realistic future land use scenarios. For the CALUC we use early-settlement (circa 1790) initial land class values and final or present-day (2010) land classes to calibrate the model. CALUC- PIHM dynamically simulates the hydrologic response of conversion from pre-settlement to present landuse. The simulations highlight the capability and value of dynamic coupling of catchment hydrology with land use change over long time periods. Analysis of the simulation uses various metrics such as the distributed water balance, flow duration curves, etc. to show how deforestation, urbanization and agricultural land development interact for the period 1790- present.

Demand for abortion and post abortion care in Ibadan, Nigeria.

PubMed

Awoyemi, Bosede O; Novignon, Jacob

2014-01-01

While induced abortion is considered to be illegal and socially unacceptable in Nigeria, it is still practiced by many women in the country. Poor family planning and unsafe abortion practices have daunting effects on maternal health. For instance, Nigeria is on the verge of not meeting the Millennium development goals on maternal health due to high maternal mortality ratio, estimated to be about 630 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. Recent evidences have shown that a major factor in this trend is the high incidence of abortion in the country. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to investigate the factors determining the demand for abortion and post-abortion care in Ibadan city of Nigeria. The study employed data from a hospital-based/exploratory survey carried out between March to September 2010. Closed ended questionnaires were administered to a sample of 384 women of reproductive age from three hospitals within the Ibadan metropolis in South West Nigeria. However, only 308 valid responses were received and analysed. A probit model was fitted to determine the socioeconomic factors that influence demand for abortion and post-abortion care. The results showed that 62% of respondents demanded for abortion while 52.3% of those that demanded for abortion received post-abortion care. The findings again showed that income was a significant determinant of abortion and post-abortion care demand. Women with higher income were more likely to demand abortion and post-abortion care. Married women were found to be less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Older women were significantly less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Mothers' education was only statistically significant in determining abortion demand but not post-abortion care demand. The findings suggest that while abortion is illegal in Nigeria, some women in the Ibadan city do abort unwanted pregnancies. The consequence of this in the absence of proper post-abortion care is daunting. There is the need for policymakers to intensify public education against indiscriminate abortion and to reduce unwanted pregnancies. In effect, there is need for effective alternative family planning methods. This is likely to reduce the demand for abortion. Further, with income found as a major constraint, post abortion services should be made accessible to both the rich and poor alike so as to prevent unnecessary maternal deaths as a result of abortion related complications.

Factors buffering against the effects of job demands: how does age matter?

PubMed

Besen, Elyssa; Matz-Costa, Christina; James, Jacquelyn B; Pitt-Catsouphes, Marcie

2015-02-01

Given the increasing role that paid work is likely to play in older adulthood in the coming decades, the goal of this study was to understand the circumstances under which work is related to mental health for older adults and whether these circumstances differ by age. Using a multiworksite sample of 1,812 U.S. workers age 18 to 81, we use the life-span theory of control to hypothesize that older and younger workers may benefit differentially from job and personal control in the context of high job demands. Results suggest that for younger workers with high personal control, job control buffers the impact of job demands on mental health. For older workers, personal control alone buffers the impact of job demands on mental health. This study adds to previous research by addressing how the factors thought to buffer against the effects of job demands differ cross-sectionally by age. © The Author(s) 2012.

Work and Sleep--A Prospective Study of Psychosocial Work Factors, Physical Work Factors, and Work Scheduling.

PubMed

Åkerstedt, Torbjörn; Garefelt, Johanna; Richter, Anne; Westerlund, Hugo; Magnusson Hanson, Linda L; Sverke, Magnus; Kecklund, Göran

2015-07-01

There is limited knowledge about the prospective relationship between major work characteristics (psychosocial, physical, scheduling) and disturbed sleep. The current study sought to provide such knowledge. Prospective cohort, with measurements on two occasions (T1 and T2) separated by two years. Naturalistic study, Sweden. There were 4,827 participants forming a representative sample of the working population. Questionnaire data on work factors obtained on two occasions were analyzed with structural equation modeling. Competing models were compared in order to investigate temporal relationships. A reciprocal model was found to fit the data best. Sleep disturbances at T2 were predicted by higher work demands at T1 and by lower perceived stress at T1. In addition, sleep disturbances at T1 predicted subsequent higher perception of stress, higher work demands, lower degree of control, and less social support at work at T2. A cross-sectional mediation analysis showed that (higher) perceived stress mediated the relationship between (higher) work demands and sleep disturbances; however, no such association was found longitudinally. Higher work demands predicted disturbed sleep, whereas physical work characteristics, shift work, and overtime did not. In addition, disturbed sleep predicted subsequent higher work demands, perceived stress, less social support, and lower degree of control. The results suggest that remedial interventions against sleep disturbances should focus on psychosocial factors, and that such remedial interventions may improve the psychosocial work situation in the long run. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Assessment of patients' awareness and factors influencing patients' demands for sedation in endodontics.

PubMed

Huh, Yoo Kyeom; Montagnese, Thomas A; Harding, Jarrod; Aminoshariae, Anita; Mickel, Andre

2015-02-01

Endodontic therapy is perceived by many as a procedure to be feared. Many studies have reported that fear and anxiety are major deterrents to seeking dental care in general, but only a few deal with the use of sedation in endodontic therapies. The purpose of this study was to assess patients' awareness of and factors influencing the potential demand for sedation in endodontics. We hypothesized that there is an association between demographic factors and the demand for sedation in endodontics. A survey consisting of 24 questions was given to patients 18 years and older who presented to the graduate endodontic clinic. Results were collected and statistically analyzed. Thirty-six percent of patients reported that their perception of sedation was being put to sleep, and 27% perceived it as related to or reducing pain. Concerns associated with endodontic therapy were the fear of pain (35%), fear of needles (16%), difficulty getting numb (10%), and anxiety (7%). The 2 major demographic factors that influenced the demand for sedation were cost and the level of anxiety (P < .05). Fifty-one percent showed a positive interest in sedation for endodontic therapy if the option of sedation was available. The demand for sedation in endodontics is high. Patients' understanding of sedation varies. More patients would consider having endodontic procedures if sedation was available. The provision of sedation by endodontists could result in more patients accepting endodontic therapies. Copyright © 2015 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOWRY DEMAND AND HARASSMENT: PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS IN INDIA.

PubMed

Jeyaseelan, Visalakshi; Kumar, Shuba; Jeyaseelan, L; Shankar, Viswanathan; Yadav, Bijesh Kumar; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I

2015-11-01

The practice of dowry is widespread in India and refers to the payment of cash/gifts by the bride's family to the bridegroom's family before marriage. Though prohibited by law, dowry is widely practised, and often contributes to severe injuries and even death of young brides. This study examined the prevalence and risk factors for dowry demand and dowry harassment and its psychosocial correlates across different social strata in India, and also by husband and mother-in-law characteristics. In a cross-sectional survey of 9938 women in rural, urban and urban non-slum sites across India conducted in 1998-99, dowry demand was found to be significantly higher (p<0.001) in the urban non-slum and rural areas (26% and 23% respectively) than in urban slum areas (18%). Overall, 17% of groom's families were not satisfied with the dowry, this being higher in rural areas (21%) than in urban slum and non-slum areas (about 14% in both). The overall prevalence of dowry harassment among this group of women was 13.3%. Mothers-in-law who had themselves experienced dowry demand were 14 (95% CI 5.0-40.4) and 5 (95% CI 1.3-18.9) times more likely to demand and harass daughters-in-law over dowry, respectively. Another significant risk factor for dowry-related harassment was mother-in law's status in the family. Interventions related to modifiable risk factors, such as increased social support at the community level, should help reduce dowry harassment.

Dynamic management of integrated residential energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muratori, Matteo

This study combines principles of energy systems engineering and statistics to develop integrated models of residential energy use in the United States, to include residential recharging of electric vehicles. These models can be used by government, policymakers, and the utility industry to provide answers and guidance regarding the future of the U.S. energy system. Currently, electric power generation must match the total demand at each instant, following seasonal patterns and instantaneous fluctuations. Thus, one of the biggest drivers of costs and capacity requirement is the electricity demand that occurs during peak periods. These peak periods require utility companies to maintain operational capacity that often is underutilized, outdated, expensive, and inefficient. In light of this, flattening the demand curve has long been recognized as an effective way of cutting the cost of producing electricity and increasing overall efficiency. The problem is exacerbated by expected widespread adoption of non-dispatchable renewable power generation. The intermittent nature of renewable resources and their non-dispatchability substantially limit the ability of electric power generation of adapting to the fluctuating demand. Smart grid technologies and demand response programs are proposed as a technical solution to make the electric power demand more flexible and able to adapt to power generation. Residential demand response programs offer different incentives and benefits to consumers in response to their flexibility in the timing of their electricity consumption. Understanding interactions between new and existing energy technologies, and policy impacts therein, is key to driving sustainable energy use and economic growth. Comprehensive and accurate models of the next-generation power system allow for understanding the effects of new energy technologies on the power system infrastructure, and can be used to guide policy, technology, and economic decisions. This dissertation presents a bottom-up highly resolved model of a generic residential energy eco-system in the United States. The model is able to capture the entire energy footprint of an individual household, to include all appliances, space conditioning systems, in-home charging of plug-in electric vehicles, and any other energy needs, viewing residential and transportation energy needs as an integrated continuum. The residential energy eco-system model is based on a novel bottom-up approach that quantifies consumer energy use behavior. The incorporation of stochastic consumer behaviors allows capturing the electricity consumption of each residential specific end-use, providing an accurate estimation of the actual amount of available controllable resources, and for a better understanding of the potential of residential demand response programs. A dynamic energy management framework is then proposed to manage electricity consumption inside each residential energy eco-system. Objective of the dynamic energy management framework is to optimize the scheduling of all the controllable appliances and in-home charging of plug-in electric vehicles to minimize cost. Such an automated energy management framework is used to simulate residential demand response programs, and evaluate their impact on the electric power infrastructure. For instance, time-varying electricity pricing might lead to synchronization of the individual residential demands, creating pronounced rebound peaks in the aggregate demand that are higher and steeper than the original demand peaks that the time-varying electricity pricing structure intended to eliminate. The modeling tools developed in this study can serve as a virtual laboratory for investigating fundamental economic and policy-related questions regarding the interplay of individual consumers with energy use. The models developed allow for evaluating the impact of different energy policies, technology adoption, and electricity price structures on the total residential electricity demand. In particular, two case studies are reported in this dissertation to illustrate application of the tools developed. The first considers the impact of market penetration of plug-in electric vehicles on the electric power infrastructure. The second provides a quantitative comparison of the impact of different electricity price structures on residential demand response. Simulation results and an electricity price structure, called Multi-TOU, aimed at solving the rebound peak issue, are presented.

An Exploration of School Counselors' Demands and Resources: Relationship to Stress, Biographic, and Caseload Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Christopher; Kerne, Valerie Van Horn; Calfa, Nicolina A.; Lambert, Richard G.; Guzman, Michele

2010-01-01

The study in this article examined the relationship of school counselors' reports of demands and resources in their work environment to perceived stress, biographic factors, and caseload characteristics. Participants were 227 school counselors in Texas. Paperwork requirements and size of caseload were rated the most demanding aspects of their job,…

Delivery of video-on-demand services using local storages within passive optical networks.

PubMed

Abeywickrama, Sandu; Wong, Elaine

2013-01-28

At present, distributed storage systems have been widely studied to alleviate Internet traffic build-up caused by high-bandwidth, on-demand applications. Distributed storage arrays located locally within the passive optical network were previously proposed to deliver Video-on-Demand services. As an added feature, a popularity-aware caching algorithm was also proposed to dynamically maintain the most popular videos in the storage arrays of such local storages. In this paper, we present a new dynamic bandwidth allocation algorithm to improve Video-on-Demand services over passive optical networks using local storages. The algorithm exploits the use of standard control packets to reduce the time taken for the initial request communication between the customer and the central office, and to maintain the set of popular movies in the local storage. We conduct packet level simulations to perform a comparative analysis of the Quality-of-Service attributes between two passive optical networks, namely the conventional passive optical network and one that is equipped with a local storage. Results from our analysis highlight that strategic placement of a local storage inside the network enables the services to be delivered with improved Quality-of-Service to the customer. We further formulate power consumption models of both architectures to examine the trade-off between enhanced Quality-of-Service performance versus the increased power requirement from implementing a local storage within the network.

Using the Viability Theory to Assess the Flexibility of Forest Managers Under Ecological Intensification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Jean-Denis; Bonté, Bruno; Cordonnier, Thomas; de Morogues, Francis

2015-11-01

Greater demand for wood material has converged with greater demand for biodiversity conservation to make balancing forest ecosystem services a key societal issue. Forest managers, owners, or policymakers need new approaches and methods to evaluate their ability to adapt to this dual objective. We analyze the ability of forest owners to define sustainable forest management options based on viability theory and a new flexibility index. This new indicator gauges the adaptive capacity of forest owners based on the number of sustainable actions available to them at a given time. Here we study a public forest owner who regulates harvest intensity and frequency in order to meet demand for timber wood at forest scale and to meet a biodiversity recommendation via a minimum permanently maintained volume of deadwood per hectare at stand scale. Dynamical systems theory was used to model uneven-aged forest dynamics—including deadwood dynamics—and the dynamics of timber wood demand and tree removals. Uneven-aged silver fir forest management in the "Quatre Montagnes region" (Vercors, France) is used as an illustrative example. The results explain situations where a joint increase in wood production and deadwood retention does not reduce the flexibility index more than increasing either one dimension alone, thus opening up ecological intensification options. To conclude, we discuss the value of the new flexibility index for addressing environmental management and ecological intensification issues.

Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

2017-12-01

Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

Long-term sickness absence from combined factors related to physical work demands: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Andersen, Lars L; Thorsen, Sannie V; Flyvholm, Mari-Ann; Holtermann, Andreas

2018-05-05

The working environment plays an important role in public health. This study investigates the risk for long-term sickness absence (LTSA) from the combination of factors related to physical work demands. Employees (n = 22 740) of the general population (the Danish Work Environment & Health study 2012) were followed for two years in the Danish Register for Evaluation of Marginalisation. Using Cox regression analyses we determined the risk of LTSA from four factors; (i) physical work demands, (ii) physical exertion during work, (iii) fatigue after work and (iv) work-limiting pain. During follow-up 10.2% experienced LTSA. Each of the four factors increased the risk of LTSA with hazard ratios (HR) ranging from 1.30 to 1.57. Scoring high on one (30.3% of the respondents), two (24.4%), three (19.9%) and all four factors (9.2%) gradually increased the risk of LTSA (HR's of 1.39 [95% CI 1.16-1.66], 1.66 [95% CI 1.39-1.99], 1.90 [95% CI 1.57-2.29] and 3.02 [95% CI 2.47-3.68], respectively). Risk estimates remained robust in stratified analyses of age, sex and socioeconomic position. Population attributable fractions were high across all subgroups; 39% (general population), 36% (younger workers), 45% (older workers), 36% (men), 41% (women), 30% (higher socioeconomic position) and 45% (lower socioeconomic position). The risk of LTSA gradually increased with number of factors related to high physical work demands, underlining the importance of targeting combined factors in risk assessment and preventive interventions.

Changes in psychosocial work factors in the French working population between 2006 and 2010.

PubMed

Malard, Lucile; Chastang, Jean-François; Niedhammer, Isabelle

2015-02-01

The aim of the study was to assess the changes in psychosocial work factors in the French working population between 2006 and 2010 and to examine potential differential changes according to age, occupation, public/private sector, work contract and self-employed/employee status. The study sample included 5,600 workers followed up from 2006 to 2010 from the national representative Santé et Itinéraire Professionnel (SIP) survey. Psychosocial work factors included decision latitude, psychological demands, social support, reward, overcommitment, long working hours, predictability, night- and shift work, emotional demands, role conflict, ethical conflict, tensions with the public, job insecurity and work-life imbalance, and were measured using scores. Linear regressions were used to analyse the change in the scores of these factors adjusted for age and initial score. All analyses were stratified by gender. Psychosocial work factors worsened between 2006 and 2010: decision latitude, social support, reward, role conflict and work-life imbalance for both genders, and psychological demands, emotional demands, ethical conflict and tensions with the public for women. Differential changes according to age, occupation, public/private sector, work contract and self-employed/employee status were observed suggesting that some groups may be more likely to be exposed to negative changes especially the younger, low- and high-skilled and public sector workers. Monitoring exposure to psychosocial work factors over time may be crucial, and prevention policies should take into account that deterioration of psychosocial work factors may be sharper among subgroups such as younger, low- and high-skilled and public sector workers.

A Perishable Inventory Model with Return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, S. W.; Lesmono, D.; Limansyah, T.

2018-04-01

In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a perishable inventory with return by assuming deterministic demand and inventory dependent demand. By inventory dependent demand, it means that demand at certain time depends on the available inventory at that time with certain rate. In dealing with perishable items, we should consider deteriorating rate factor that corresponds to the decreasing quality of goods. There are also costs involved in this model such as purchasing, ordering, holding, shortage (backordering) and returning costs. These costs compose the total costs in the model that we want to minimize. In the model we seek for the optimal return time and order quantity. We assume that after some period of time, called return time, perishable items can be returned to the supplier at some returning costs. The supplier will then replace them in the next delivery. Some numerical experiments are given to illustrate our model and sensitivity analysis is performed as well. We found that as the deteriorating rate increases, returning time becomes shorter, the optimal order quantity and total cost increases. When considering the inventory-dependent demand factor, we found that as this factor increases, assuming a certain deteriorating rate, returning time becomes shorter, optimal order quantity becomes larger and the total cost increases.

The cognitive demands of second order manual control: Applications of the event related brain potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wickens, C.; Gill, R.; Kramer, A.; Ross, W.; Donchin, E.

1981-01-01

Three experiments are described in which tracking difficulty is varied in the presence of a covert tone discrimination task. Event related brain potentials (ERPs) elicited by the tones are employed as an index of the resource demands of tracking. The ERP measure reflected the control order variation, and this variable was thereby assumed to compete for perceptual/central processing resources. A fine-grained analysis of the results suggested that the primary demands of second order tracking involve the central processing operations of maintaining a more complex internal model of the dynamic system, rather than the perceptual demands of higher derivative perception. Experiment 3 varied tracking bandwidth in random input tracking, and the ERP was unaffected. Bandwidth was then inferred to compete for response-related processing resources that are independent of the ERP.

Comparison of static and dynamic computer-assisted guidance methods in implantology.

PubMed

Mischkowski, R A; Zinser, M J; Neugebauer, J; Kübler, A C; Zöller, J E

2006-01-01

The planning of dental implant position and its transfer to the operation site can be considered as one of the most important factors for the long-term success of implant-supported prosthetic and epithetic restorations. This study compares computer-assisted fabricated surgical templates as the static method with intro-operative image guided navigation as the dynamic method for transfer of three-dimensional pre-operative planning. For the static method, the systems Med3D, coDiagnostix/ gonyX, and SimPlant were used. For the dynamic method, the systems RoboDent und VectorVision2 were applied. A total of 746 implants were inserted between August 1999 and December 2005 in 206 patients. The static approach was used most frequently, accounting for 611 fixtures in 168 patients. The failure ratios within the first 6 months were 1.31% in the statically controlled insertion group compared to 2.96% in the dynamically controlled insertion group. Complications related to an incorrect position of the implants have not been observed so far in either group. All computer-assisted methods included in this study were successfully applied in a clinical setting after a certain start-up period. The indications for application of computer-assisted methods in implantology are currently given in difficult anatomical situations. Due to uncomplicated handling and low resource demands, the static template technique can be recommended as the method of choice for the majority of all cases falling into this category.

The 30/20 GHz fixed communications systems service demand assessment. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gamble, R. B.; Seltzer, H. R.; Speter, K. M.; Westheimer, M.

1979-01-01

Demand for telecommunications services is forecasted for the period 1980-2000, with particular reference to that portion of the demand associated with satellite communications. Overall demand for telecommunications is predicted to increase by a factor of five over the period studied and the satellite portion of demand will increase even more rapidly. Traffic demand is separately estimated for voice, video, and data services and is also described as a function of distance traveled and city size. The satellite component of projected demand is compared with the capacity available in the C and Ku satellite bands and it is projected that new satellite technology and the implementation of Ka band transmission will be needed in the decade of the 1990's.

The roles of Medicaid and economic factors in the demand for nursing home care.

PubMed Central

Reschovsky, J D

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine nursing home demand, focusing on how Medicaid affects demand, the role of economic variables, and on important interactions between explanatory factors. DATA SOURCES: From the 1989 National Long Term Care Survey, a nationally representative sample of community-based and institutionalized elderly persons with disabilities (N = 3,837). Survey data are merged with state- and county-level data on Medicaid policy and local market conditions. STUDY DESIGN: Sample members are classified as Medicaid-eligible or private pay, were they to enter a nursing home. The probability of being in a nursing home is estimated separately on these two groups using probit. To explore interactions, these subsamples are further divided between married and unmarried persons and between persons with high and low levels of disability. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Demand for nursing home care systematically differs, depending on eligibility for Medicaid. This is attributed in part to the structure of Medicaid benefits. Although economic factors do not appear important to demand decisions in the aggregate, they play a larger role among married persons relative to unmarried persons, and among less disabled persons relative to highly disabled persons. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the nature of nursing home demand requires careful consideration of the different consumption choices people face by virtue of their eligibility for public benefits. Because behavioral responses to changes in policy are found to differ among various groups of disabled persons, policymakers should be sensitive to how these differences affect the efficiency and distributional effects of specific policy changes. PMID:9776937

Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufschmidt, G.; Crozier, M.; Glade, T.

2005-05-01

This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research perspectives on a New Zealand example.

Psychotherapy Is Chaotic—(Not Only) in a Computational World

PubMed Central

Schiepek, Günter K.; Viol, Kathrin; Aichhorn, Wolfgang; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten; Sungler, Katharina; Pincus, David; Schöller, Helmut J.

2017-01-01

Objective: The aim of this article is to outline the role of chaotic dynamics in psychotherapy. Besides some empirical findings of chaos at different time scales, the focus is on theoretical modeling of change processes explaining and simulating chaotic dynamics. It will be illustrated how some common factors of psychotherapeutic change and psychological hypotheses on motivation, emotion regulation, and information processing of the client's functioning can be integrated into a comprehensive nonlinear model of human change processes. Methods: The model combines 5 variables (intensity of emotions, problem intensity, motivation to change, insight and new perspectives, therapeutic success) and 4 parameters into a set of 5 coupled nonlinear difference equations. The results of these simulations are presented as time series, as phase space embedding of these time series (i.e., attractors), and as bifurcation diagrams. Results: The model creates chaotic dynamics, phase transition-like phenomena, bi- or multi-stability, and sensibility of the dynamic patterns on parameter drift. These features are predicted by chaos theory and by Synergetics and correspond to empirical findings. The spectrum of these behaviors illustrates the complexity of psychotherapeutic processes. Conclusion: The model contributes to the development of an integrative conceptualization of psychotherapy. It is consistent with the state of scientific knowledge of common factors, as well as other psychological topics, such as: motivation, emotion regulation, and cognitive processing. The role of chaos theory is underpinned, not only in the world of computer simulations, but also in practice. In practice, chaos demands technologies capable of real-time monitoring and reporting on the nonlinear features of the ongoing process (e.g., its stability or instability). Based on this monitoring, a client-centered, continuous, and cooperative process of feedback and control becomes possible. By contrast, restricted predictability and spontaneous changes challenge the usefulness of prescriptive treatment manuals or other predefined programs of psychotherapy. PMID:28484401

Psychotherapy Is Chaotic-(Not Only) in a Computational World.

PubMed

Schiepek, Günter K; Viol, Kathrin; Aichhorn, Wolfgang; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten; Sungler, Katharina; Pincus, David; Schöller, Helmut J

2017-01-01

Objective: The aim of this article is to outline the role of chaotic dynamics in psychotherapy. Besides some empirical findings of chaos at different time scales, the focus is on theoretical modeling of change processes explaining and simulating chaotic dynamics. It will be illustrated how some common factors of psychotherapeutic change and psychological hypotheses on motivation, emotion regulation, and information processing of the client's functioning can be integrated into a comprehensive nonlinear model of human change processes. Methods: The model combines 5 variables (intensity of emotions, problem intensity, motivation to change, insight and new perspectives, therapeutic success) and 4 parameters into a set of 5 coupled nonlinear difference equations. The results of these simulations are presented as time series, as phase space embedding of these time series (i.e., attractors), and as bifurcation diagrams. Results: The model creates chaotic dynamics, phase transition-like phenomena, bi- or multi-stability, and sensibility of the dynamic patterns on parameter drift. These features are predicted by chaos theory and by Synergetics and correspond to empirical findings. The spectrum of these behaviors illustrates the complexity of psychotherapeutic processes. Conclusion: The model contributes to the development of an integrative conceptualization of psychotherapy. It is consistent with the state of scientific knowledge of common factors, as well as other psychological topics, such as: motivation, emotion regulation, and cognitive processing. The role of chaos theory is underpinned, not only in the world of computer simulations, but also in practice. In practice, chaos demands technologies capable of real-time monitoring and reporting on the nonlinear features of the ongoing process (e.g., its stability or instability). Based on this monitoring, a client-centered, continuous, and cooperative process of feedback and control becomes possible. By contrast, restricted predictability and spontaneous changes challenge the usefulness of prescriptive treatment manuals or other predefined programs of psychotherapy.

Factor demand in Swedish manufacturing industry with special reference to the demand for energy. Instantaneous adjustment models; some results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjoeholm, K. R.

1981-02-01

The dual approach to the theory of production is used to estimate factor demand functions of the Swedish manufacturing industry. Two approximations of the cost function, the translog and the generalized Leontief models, are used. The price elasticities of the factor demand do not seem to depend on the choice of model. This is at least true as to the sign pattern and as to the inputs capital, labor, total energy and other materials. Total energy is separated into solid fuels, gasoline, fuel oil, electricity and a residual. Fuel oil and electricity are found to be substitutes by both models. Capital and energy are shown to be substitutes. This implies that Swedish industry will save more energy if the capital cost can be reduced. Both models are, in the best versions, able to detect an inappropriate variable. The assumption of perfect competition on the product market, is shown to be inadequate by both models. When this assumption is relaxed, the normal substitution pattern among the inputs is resumed.

Stochastic optimization model for order acceptance with multiple demand classes and uncertain demand/supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wen; Fung, Richard Y. K.

2014-06-01

This article considers an order acceptance problem in a make-to-stock manufacturing system with multiple demand classes in a finite time horizon. Demands in different periods are random variables and are independent of one another, and replenishments of inventory deviate from the scheduled quantities. The objective of this work is to maximize the expected net profit over the planning horizon by deciding the fraction of the demand that is going to be fulfilled. This article presents a stochastic order acceptance optimization model and analyses the existence of the optimal promising policies. An example of a discrete problem is used to illustrate the policies by applying the dynamic programming method. In order to solve the continuous problems, a heuristic algorithm based on stochastic approximation (HASA) is developed. Finally, the computational results of a case example illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the HASA approach, and make the application of the proposed model readily acceptable.

High-rate RTK and PPP multi-GNSS positioning for small-scale dynamic displacements monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paziewski, Jacek; Sieradzki, Rafał; Baryła, Radosław; Wielgosz, Pawel

2017-04-01

The monitoring of dynamic displacements and deformations of engineering structures such as buildings, towers and bridges is of great interest due to several practical and theoretical reasons. The most important is to provide information required for safe maintenance of the constructions. High temporal resolution and precision of GNSS observations predestine this technology to be applied to most demanding application in terms of accuracy, availability and reliability. GNSS technique supported by appropriate processing methodology may meet the specific demands and requirements of ground and structures monitoring. Thus, high-rate multi-GNSS signals may be used as reliable source of information on dynamic displacements of ground and engineering structures, also in real time applications. In this study we present initial results of application of precise relative GNSS positioning for detection of small scale (cm level) high temporal resolution dynamic displacements. Methodology and algorithms applied in self-developed software allowing for relative positioning using high-rate dual-frequency phase and pseudorange GPS+Galileo observations are also given. Additionally, an approach was also made to use the Precise Point Positioning technique to such application. In the experiment were used the observations obtained from high-rate (20 Hz) geodetic receivers. The dynamic displacements were simulated using specially constructed device moving GNSS antenna with dedicated amplitude and frequency. The obtained results indicate on possibility of detection of dynamic displacements of the GNSS antenna even at the level of few millimetres using both relative and Precise Point Positioning techniques after suitable signals processing.

Distribution and dynamics of risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

PubMed

Zhang, L; Guo, Z W; Bridge, E S; Li, Y M; Xiao, X M

2013-11-01

Within China's Poyang Lake region, close interactions between wild migratory birds and domestic poultry are common and provide an opportunity for the transmission and subsequent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus. We overlaid a series of ecological factors associated with HPAI to map the risk of HPAI in relation to natural and anthropogenic variables, and we identified two hotspots for potential HPAI outbreaks in the Poyang Lake region as well as three corridors connecting the two hotspot areas. In hotspot I, there is potential for migratory birds to bring new avian influenza (AI) strains that can reassort with existing strains to form new AI viruses. Hotspot II features high-density poultry production where outbreaks of endemic AI viruses are likely. The three communication corridors that link the two hotspots further promote HPAI H5N1 transmission and outbreaks and lead to the persistence of AI viruses in the Poyang Lake region. We speculate that the region's unevenly distributed poultry supply-and-demand system might be a key factor inducing HPAI H5N1 transmission and outbreaks in the Poyang Lake region.

Studying the Impacts of Environmental Factors and Agricultural Management on Methane Emissions from Rice Paddies Using a Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T. S.; Gahlot, S.; Shu, S.; Jain, A. K.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2017-12-01

Continued growth in population is projected to drive increased future demand for rice and the methane emissions associated with its production. However, observational studies of methane emissions from rice have reported seemingly conflicting results and do not all support this projection. In this study we couple an ecophysiological process-based rice paddy module and a methane emission module with a land surface model, Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), to study the impacts of various environmental factors and agricultural management practices on rice production and methane emissions from rice fields. This coupled modeling framework accounts for dynamic rice growth processes with adaptation of photosynthesis, rice-specific phenology, biomass accumulation, leaf area development and structures responses to water, temperature, light and nutrient stresses. The coupled model is calibrated and validated with observations from various rice cultivation fields. We find that the differing results of observational studies can be caused by the interactions of environmental factors, including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and N deposition, and agricultural management practices, such as irrigation and N fertilizer applications, with rice production at spatial and temporal scales.

A conceptual model of the psychological health system for U.S. active duty service members: an approach to inform leadership and policy decision making.

PubMed

Wang, Judy Y; Glover, Wiljeana J; Rhodes, Alison M; Nightingale, Deborah

2013-06-01

The influence of individual-level factors such as pretraumatic risk and protective factors and the availability of unit-level and enterprise-level factors on psychological health outcomes have been previously considered individually, but have not been considered in tandem across the U.S. Military psychological health system. We use the existing literature on military psychological health to build a conceptual system dynamics model of the U.S. Military psychological health system "service-cycle" from accession and deployment to future psychological health screening and treatment. The model highlights a few key observations, challenges, and opportunities for improvement for the system that relate to several topics including the importance of modeling operational demand combined with the population's psychological health as opposed to only physical health; the role of resilience and post-traumatic growth on the mitigation of stress; the positive and negative effects of pretraumatic risk factors, unit support, and unit leadership on the service-cycle; and the opportunity to improve the system more rapidly by including more feedback mechanisms regarding the usefulness of pre- and post-traumatic innovations to medical leaders, funding authorities, and policy makers. Reprint & Copyright © 2013 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Does Psychosocial Work Environment Factors Predict Stress and Mean Arterial Pressure in the Malaysian Industry Workers?

PubMed

Javaid, Muhammad Umair; Isha, Ahmad Shahrul Nizam; Sabir, Asrar Ahmed; Ghazali, Zulkipli; Nübling, Matthias

2018-01-01

Psychosocial risks are considered as a burning issue in the Asia-Pacific region. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of psychosocial work environment factors on health of petrochemical industry workers of Malaysia. In lieu to job demands-resources theory, significant positive associations were found between quantitative demands, work-family conflict, and job insecurity with stress, while a significant negative association of role clarity as a resource factor with stress was detected. We also found that quantitative demands were significantly associated with the mean arterial pressure (MAP). Multistage sampling procedure was used to collect study sample. Structural Equation Modeling was used to identify relationship between the endogenous and exogenous variables. Finally, the empirically tested psychosocial work environment model will further help in providing a better risk assessment in different industries and enterprises.

A Budget Impact Model of Hemophilia Bypassing Agent Prophylaxis Relative to Recombinant Factor VIIa On-Demand.

PubMed

Mehta, Darshan A; Oladapo, Abiola O; Epstein, Joshua D; Novack, Aaron R; Neufeld, Ellis J; Hay, Joel W

2016-02-01

Hemophilia patients use factor-clotting concentrates (factor VIII for hemophilia A and factor IX for hemophilia B) for improved blood clotting. These products are used to prevent or stop bleeding episodes. However, some hemophilia patients develop inhibitors (i.e., the patient's immune system develops antibodies against these factor concentrates). Hence, these patients do not respond well to the factor concentrates. A majority of hemophilia patients with inhibitors are managed on-demand with the following bypassing agents: recombinant factor VIIa (rFVIIa) and activated prothrombin complex concentrate (aPCC). The recently published U.S. registries Dosing Observational Study in Hemophilia (DOSE) and Hemostasis and Thrombosis Research Society (HTRS) reported higher rFVIIa on-demand use for bleed management than previously described. To estimate aPCC and rFVIIa prophylaxis costs relative to rFVIIa on-demand treatment cost based on rFVIIa doses reported in U.S. registries. A literature-based cost model was developed assuming a base case on-demand annual bleed rate (ABR) of 28.7 per inhibitor patient, which was taken from a randomized phase 3 clinical trial. The doses for rFVIIa on-demand were taken from the median dose per bleed reported by the DOSE and HTRS registries. Model inputs for aPCC and rFVIIa prophylaxis (i.e., dosing and efficacy) were derived from respective randomized clinical trials. Cost analysis was from the U.S. payer perspective, and only direct drug costs were considered. The drug cost was based on the Medicare Part B 2014 average sale price (ASP). Two-way sensitivity and threshold analyses were performed by simultaneously varying on-demand ABR, prophylaxis efficacy, and unit drug cost. In addition to studying relative costs associated with on-demand and prophylaxis treatments, relative cost per bleeding episode avoided were also calculated for aPCC and rFVIIa prophylaxis treatments. The prophylaxis efficacy reported in the trials were used to determine the number of bleeding episodes avoided. Based on the median on-demand dose of 695 mcg per kg per bleed, reported by the DOSE registry, the annual rFVIIa on-demand cost was $34,009 per kg of body weight. The annual rFVIIa on-demand cost was $22,020 per kg of body weight when the median dose of 450 mcg per kg per bleed reported by the HTRS registry was considered. The annual cost rose to $38,461 per kg of body weight when the rFVIIa on-demand dose of 786 mcg per kg per bleed among patients infusing an initial dose ≥ 250 mcg per kg was considered. The aPCC (85 units per kg per every other day) and rFVIIa (90 mcg per kg per every day) annual prophylaxis costs were $26,536 and $60,700, respectively. Also, aPCC and rFVIIa prophyaxis treatments were estimated to prevent a total of 20.8 and 12.9 annual bleeding episodes, respectively. When compared with the on-demand dose of 695 mcg per kg per bleed (DOSE registry), the annual aPCC and rFVIIa prophylaxis costs were 21.9% lower and 78.4% higher, respectively. Additionally, aPCC prophylaxis saved $360 per kg for each bleeding episode avoided. rFVIIa prophylaxis cost $2,066 per kg for each bleeding episode avoided. Compared with the on-demand dose of 450 mcg per kg per bleed (HTRS registry), aPCC and rFVIIa prophylaxis costs were 20.5% and 174.9% higher, respectively. In this case, aPCC and rFVIIa prophylaxis treatment costs were $217 per kg and $2,995 per kg, respectively, for each bleeding episode avoided. aPCC and rFVIIa prophylaxis costs were 31.0% lower and 57.8% higher, respectively, when compared with the rFVIIa on-demand dose of 786 mcg per kg per bleed, among patients infusing an initial dose ≥ 250 mcg per kg (HTRS registry). In this case, aPCC prophylaxis saved $573 per kg for each bleeding episode avoided, while rFVIIa prophylaxis costs $1,724 per kg for each bleeding episode avoided. Results of the 2-way sensitivity analyses were robust in the majority of the scenarios considered. aPCC prophylaxis may be cost saving for managing hemophilia patients with inhibitors who bleed frequently and infuse significant quantities of rFVIIa on-demand.

Dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon, during winter flow conditions, 1991 and 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, V.J.

1996-01-01

Throughout the winter period, November through April, wastewater treatment plants in the Tualatin River Basin discharge from 10,000 to 15,000 pounds per day of biochemical oxygen demand to the river. These loads often increase substantially during storms when streamflow is high. During the early winter season, when streamflow is frequently less than the average winter flow, the treatment plants discharge about 2,000 pounds per day of ammonia. This study focused on the capacity of the Tualatin River to assimilat oxygen-demanding loads under winter streamflow conditions during the 1992 water year, with an emphasis on peak-flow conditions in the river, and winter-base-flow conditions during November 1992. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen throughout the main stem of the river during the winter remained generally high relative to the State standard for Oregon of 6 milligrams per liter. The most important factors controlling oxygen consumption during winter-low-flow conditions were carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand and input of oxygen-depleted waters from tributaries. During peak-flow conditions, reduced travel time and increased dilution associated with the increased streamflow minimized the effect of increased oxygen-demanding loads. During the base-flow period in November 1992, concentrations of dissolved oxygen were consistently below 6 milligrams per liter. A hydrodynamic water-quality model was used to identify the processes depleting dissolved oxygen, including sediment oxygen demand, nitrification, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Sediment oxygen demand was the most significant factor; nitrification was also important. Hypothetical scenarios were posed to evaluate the effect of different wastewater treatment plant loads during winter-base-flow conditions. Streamflow and temperature were significant factors governing concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the main-stem river.

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs : Evaluation Report for the San Diego Testbed : Draft Report. [supporting datasets - San Diego

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-26

The datasets in this zip file are in support of Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) report FHWA-JPO-16-385, "Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applica...

Efficient Computation Of Manipulator Inertia Matrix

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fijany, Amir; Bejczy, Antal K.

1991-01-01

Improved method for computation of manipulator inertia matrix developed, based on concept of spatial inertia of composite rigid body. Required for implementation of advanced dynamic-control schemes as well as dynamic simulation of manipulator motion. Motivated by increasing demand for fast algorithms to provide real-time control and simulation capability and, particularly, need for faster-than-real-time simulation capability, required in many anticipated space teleoperation applications.

A STUDY ON THE HIERARCHY OF MANAGEMENT ELEMENTS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Nobuyuki; Watanabe, Tadashi

Compared to the late 20th century, the Japanese construction industry has drastically changed its business methodology, outlook and approach in response to global issues and the incredible advances in technology. Such influences, non-exhaustively include the; WTO Government procurement agreement, updating conditions of tendering and contracting, client demands for cost reduction and the rapid penetration of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) into modern society. These days, the significance of controlling Quality, Cost and Time (the so-called QCT) has been recognized as an eternal-triangle by almost all countries, Government organizations and the private sector. However, as the construction industry is exposed to , and influenced by, more and more internal and external dynamic factors, continued reliance on managing and controlling QCT elements on their own is no longer adequate in meeting the growing demands and expectations, and as such control of additional management elements is now essential to avoid problems, or minimize their potential impacts should they occur. This paper utilizes the results of a survey carried out amongst construction managers and consultants in Japan and overseas to develop a spatial network that defines the interaction of management factors as a weighted graphical model. The calculated closeness centrality index of the developed management network model is adopted to identify the initialelement hierarchy, which is then further analyzed using the minimum distance of independent relationships of management elements (Warshall-Floyd algorism methodology), to identify the optimum potential hierarchy for effective construction management. A key result of the analysis is the significance of "Human Resource" in the construction industry management element hierarchy alongside the traditional QCT elements.

Management Options During the 2011-2012 Drought on the Apalachicola River: A Systems Dynamic Model Evaluation.

PubMed

Leitman, S; Pine, W E; Kiker, G

2016-08-01

The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin (ACF) is a large watershed in the southeastern United States. In 2012, the basin experienced the second year of a severe drought and the third multi-year drought in the last 15 years. During severe droughts, low reservoir and river levels can cause economic and ecological impacts to the reservoir, river, and estuarine ecosystems. During drought, augmenting Apalachicola River discharge through upstream reservoir releases and demand management are intuitive and often-suggested solutions to minimizing downstream effects. We assessed whether the existing reservoir system could be operated to minimize drought impacts on downstream water users and ecosystems through flow augmentation. Our analysis finds that in extreme drought such as observed during 2012, increases in water releases from reservoir storage are insufficient to even increase Apalachicola River discharge to levels observed in the 2007 drought. This suggests that there is simply not enough water available in managed storage to offset extreme drought events. Because drought frequency and intensity is predicted to increase under a variety of climate forecasts, our results demonstrate the need for a critical assessment of how water managers will meet increasing water demands in the ACF. Key uncertainties that should be addressed include (1) identifying the factors that led to extremely low Flint River discharge in 2012, and (2) determining how water "saved" via demand management is allocated to storage or passed to downstream ecosystem needs as part of the ongoing revisions to the ACF Water Control Manual by the US Army Corps of Engineers.

Low demanding parental feeding style is associated with low consumption of whole grains among children of recent immigrants.

PubMed

Tovar, Alison; Choumenkovitch, Silvina F; Hennessy, Erin; Boulos, Rebecca; Must, Aviva; Hughes, Sheryl O; Gute, David M; Vikre, Emily Kuross; Economos, Christina D

2015-12-01

We explored the influence of immigrant mothers feeding style on their children's fruit, vegetable and whole grain intake and how this relationship differed by mother's time in the U.S. Baseline data were collected on mother-child (3-12 yrs) dyads enrolled in Live Well (n = 313), a community-based, participatory, randomized controlled lifestyle intervention (2008-2013). Socio-demographics, years of residence in the U.S., behavioral data, and responses to the Caregiver's Feeding Styles Questionnaire (CFSQ) were obtained from the mother. Measured heights and weights were obtained for both mother and child. Child dietary intake was assessed using the Block Food Screener. Separate multiple linear regression models were run, adjusting for child and mother covariates. Interactions between feeding styles and years in the U.S. (<5 and ≥ 5 years), ethnicity, and child age were tested. Sixty-nine percent of mothers were overweight or obese, 46% of the children were overweight or obese. For mothers in the U.S. for<5 years, having a low demanding/high responsive style was associated with lower child intake of whole grains in adjusted models vs. a high demanding/high responsive style (p < 0.05). This was not seen for mothers in the U.S. for≥5 years. Thus, the influence of feeding style on dietary intake may change with length of time in the U.S. These hypotheses-generating findings call for future research to understand how broader socio-cultural factors influence the feeding dynamic among immigrants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of anatomical dominance and hypertension on coronary conduit arterial and microcirculatory flow patterns: a multiscale modeling study.

PubMed

Mynard, Jonathan P; Smolich, Joseph J

2016-07-01

Coronary hemodynamics are known to be affected by intravascular and extravascular factors that vary regionally and transmurally between the perfusion territories of left and right coronary arteries. However, despite clinical evidence that left coronary arterial dominance portends greater cardiovascular risk, relatively little is known about the effects of left or right dominance on regional conduit arterial and microcirculatory blood flow patterns, particularly in the presence of systemic or pulmonary hypertension. We addressed this issue using a multiscale numerical model of the human coronary circulation situated in a closed-loop cardiovascular model. The coronary model represented left or right dominant anatomies and accounted for transmural and regional differences in vascular properties and extravascular compression. Regional coronary flow dynamics of the two anatomical variants were compared under normotensive conditions, raised systemic or pulmonary pressures with maintained flow demand, and after accounting for adaptations known to occur in acute and chronic hypertensive states. Key findings were that 1) right coronary arterial flow patterns were strongly influenced by dominance and systemic/pulmonary hypertension; 2) dominance had minor effects on left coronary arterial and all microvascular flow patterns (aside from mean circumflex flow); 3) although systemic hypertension favorably increased perfusion pressure, this benefit varied regionally and transmurally and was offset by increased left ventricular and septal flow demands; and 4) pulmonary hypertension had a substantial negative effect on right ventricular and septal flows, which was exacerbated by greater metabolic demands. These findings highlight the importance of interactions between coronary arterial dominance and hypertension in modulating coronary hemodynamics. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Management Options During the 2011-2012 Drought on the Apalachicola River: A Systems Dynamic Model Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leitman, S.; Pine, W. E.; Kiker, G.

2016-08-01

The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin (ACF) is a large watershed in the southeastern United States. In 2012, the basin experienced the second year of a severe drought and the third multi-year drought in the last 15 years. During severe droughts, low reservoir and river levels can cause economic and ecological impacts to the reservoir, river, and estuarine ecosystems. During drought, augmenting Apalachicola River discharge through upstream reservoir releases and demand management are intuitive and often-suggested solutions to minimizing downstream effects. We assessed whether the existing reservoir system could be operated to minimize drought impacts on downstream water users and ecosystems through flow augmentation. Our analysis finds that in extreme drought such as observed during 2012, increases in water releases from reservoir storage are insufficient to even increase Apalachicola River discharge to levels observed in the 2007 drought. This suggests that there is simply not enough water available in managed storage to offset extreme drought events. Because drought frequency and intensity is predicted to increase under a variety of climate forecasts, our results demonstrate the need for a critical assessment of how water managers will meet increasing water demands in the ACF. Key uncertainties that should be addressed include (1) identifying the factors that led to extremely low Flint River discharge in 2012, and (2) determining how water "saved" via demand management is allocated to storage or passed to downstream ecosystem needs as part of the ongoing revisions to the ACF Water Control Manual by the US Army Corps of Engineers.

Low Demanding Parental Feeding Styles is Associated with Low consumption of Whole Grains among Children of Recent Immigrants

PubMed Central

Choumenkovitch, Silvina F.; Hennessy, Erin; Boulos, Rebecca; Must, Aviva; Hughes, Sheryl O.; Gute, David M.; Vikre, Emily Kuross; Economos, Christina D.

2015-01-01

We explored the influence of immigrant mothers feeding style on their children’s fruit, vegetable and whole grain intake and how this relationship differed by mother’s time in the U.S. Baseline data were collected on mother-child (3–12 yrs.) dyads enrolled in Live Well (n=313), a community-based, participatory, randomized controlled lifestyle intervention (2008–2013). Socio-demographics, years of residence in the U.S., behavioral data, and responses to the Caregiver’s Feeding Styles Questionnaire (CFSQ) were obtained from the mother. Measured heights and weights were obtained for both mother and child. Child dietary intake was assessed using the Block Food Screener. Separate multiple linear regression models were run, adjusting for child and mother covariates. Interactions between feeding styles and years in the U.S. (<5 and ≥5 years), ethnicity, and child age were tested. Sixty-nine percent of mothers were overweight or obese, 46% of the children were overweight or obese. For mothers in the U.S. for <5 years, having a low demanding/high responsive style was associated with lower child intake of whole grains in adjusted models vs. a high demanding/high responsive style (p<0.05). This was not seen for mothers in the U.S. for ≥5 years. Thus, the influence of feeding style on dietary intake may change with length of time in the U.S. These hypotheses-generating findings call for future research to understand how broader socio-cultural factors influence the feeding dynamic among immigrants. PMID:26122753

Demand and supply factors affecting the rising overmedicalization of birth in India.

PubMed

Leone, Tiziana

2014-11-01

To understand the interaction between health systems and individual factors in determining the probability of a cesarean delivery in India. In a retrospective study, data from the 2007-2008 District Level Household and Facility Survey was used to determine the risk of cesarean delivery in six states (Punjab, Delhi, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu). Multilevel modeling was used to account for district and community effects. After controlling for key risk factors, the analysis showed that cesareans were more likely at private than public institutions (P<0.001). In terms of demand, higher education levels rather than wealth seemed to increase the likelihood of a cesarean delivery. District-level effects were significant in almost all states (P<0.001), demonstrating the need to control for health system factors. Supply factors might contribute more to the rise in cesarean delivery than does demand. Further research is needed to understand whether the quest for increased institutional deliveries in a country with high maternal mortality might be compromised by pressures for overmedicalization. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Demand for Higher Education Services. Planning for Higher Education; Vol. 3; No. 3; June 1974.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kicinski, Walter T.; Soss, Neal M.

Changing patterns of demand for higher education services have generated considerable interest in research into the factors governing the choices students make when they apply to colleges and universities. During 1973, the staff of the State Budget Division of New York State undertook the task of creating a general model of the demand for college…

Recreational fishing in the Southeast United States: a demand project analysis

Treesearch

Neelam C. Poudyal; J.M. Bowker

2008-01-01

The objective of this paper is to first develop an economic model of demand for recreational fishing in the Southeastern United States, and then project the demand for fishing in the region during the next few decades. The findings from this study will be useful to understand the factors behind declining people's participation and also to forecast the license...

Supply and demand for wood: a worldwide perspective?

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

1998-01-01

In a unique effort to compare and contrast differing views on future supply and demand for wood, a study found that demand for wood will increase, but there is no evidence of a crisis at the world scale. Opportunities to increase wood production, however, are limited and trade-offs among competing uses of forests are inevitable. A complex of factors determine supply...

How a Regional Broker Can Improve Industry Demand for University Interaction: A Case Study of the London Technology Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reid, Peter; Schofield, Matt

2006-01-01

UK university research produces highly cited publications (DTI, 2004), but demand from UK business for commercial ideas from academia is weak (HM Treasury, 2003). This paper reviews factors in the development of one regional UK technology broker, the London Technology Network (LTN), which has achieved significant and audited business demand. The…

The Demand for Legal Assistants in Indiana. Indiana College-Level Manpower Study. Report Number Six.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenberg, Robert M.; Tully, Richard B.

The Indiana College-Level Manpower Study is being conducted by the Indiana Commission for Higher Education to provide manpower information of value to planning at the postsecondary level. Factors involving both manpower supply and demand are being investigated. This report deals with a survey assessing the demand for legal assistants in Indiana.…

Burnout among pilots: psychosocial factors related to happiness and performance at simulator training.

PubMed

Demerouti, Evangelia; Veldhuis, Wouter; Coombes, Claire; Hunter, Rob

2018-06-18

In this study among airline pilots, we aim to uncover the work characteristics (job demands and resources) and the outcomes (job crafting, happiness and simulator training performance) that are related to burnout for this occupational group. Using a large sample of airline pilots, we showed that 40% of the participating pilots experience high burnout. In line with Job Demands-Resources theory, job demands were detrimental for simulator training performance because they made pilots more exhausted and less able to craft their job, whereas job resources had a favourable effect because they reduced feelings of disengagement and increased job crafting. Moreover, burnout was negatively related to pilots' happiness with life. These findings highlight the importance of psychosocial factors and health for valuable outcomes for both pilots and airlines. Practitioner Summary: Using an online survey among the members of a European pilots' professional association, we examined the relationship between psychosocial factors (work characteristics, burnout) and outcomes (simulator training performance, happiness). Forty per cent of the participating pilots experience high burnout. Job demands were detrimental, whereas job resources were favourable for simulator training performance/happiness. Twitter text: 40% of airline pilots experience burnout and psychosocial work factors and burnout relate to performance at pilots' simulator training.

Transportation Planning and ITS: Putting the Pieces Together

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Both the Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs have similar overarching goals to improve surface transportation system efficiency and individual traveler mobility. However, each program ha...

Adjusting process count on demand for petascale global optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sosonkina, Masha; Watson, Layne T.; Radcliffe, Nicholas R.

2012-11-23

There are many challenges that need to be met before efficient and reliable computation at the petascale is possible. Many scientific and engineering codes running at the petascale are likely to be memory intensive, which makes thrashing a serious problem for many petascale applications. One way to overcome this challenge is to use a dynamic number of processes, so that the total amount of memory available for the computation can be increased on demand. This paper describes modifications made to the massively parallel global optimization code pVTdirect in order to allow for a dynamic number of processes. In particular, themore » modified version of the code monitors memory use and spawns new processes if the amount of available memory is determined to be insufficient. The primary design challenges are discussed, and performance results are presented and analyzed.« less

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies Using a Dynamic Water Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R.

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Residential Consumption Scheduling Based on Dynamic User Profiling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangiatordi, Federica; Pallotti, Emiliano; Del Vecchio, Paolo; Capodiferro, Licia

Deployment of household appliances and of electric vehicles raises the electricity demand in the residential areas and the impact of the building's electrical power. The variations of electricity consumption across the day, may affect both the design of the electrical generation facilities and the electricity bill, mainly when a dynamic pricing is applied. This paper focuses on an energy management system able to control the day-ahead electricity demand in a residential area, taking into account both the variability of the energy production costs and the profiling of the users. The user's behavior is dynamically profiled on the basis of the tasks performed during the previous days and of the tasks foreseen for the current day. Depending on the size and on the flexibility in time of the user tasks, home inhabitants are grouped in, one over N, energy profiles, using a k-means algorithm. For a fixed energy generation cost, each energy profile is associated to a different hourly energy cost. The goal is to identify any bad user profile and to make it pay a highest bill. A bad profile example is when a user applies a lot of consumption tasks and low flexibility in task reallocation time. The proposed energy management system automatically schedules the tasks, solving a multi-objective optimization problem based on an MPSO strategy. The goals, when identifying bad users profiles, are to reduce the peak to average ratio in energy demand, and to minimize the energy costs, promoting virtuous behaviors.

The donor risk index: A decade of experience.

PubMed

Flores, Avegail; Asrani, Sumeet K

2017-09-01

In 2006, derivation of the donor risk index (DRI) highlighted the importance of donor factors for successful liver transplantation. Over the last decade, the DRI has served as a useful metric of donor quality and has enhanced our understanding of donor factors and their impact upon recipients with hepatitis C virus, those with low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and individuals undergoing retransplantation. DRI has provided the transplant community with a common language for describing donor organ characteristics and has served as the foundation for several tools for organ risk assessment. It is a useful tool in assessing the interactions of donor factors with recipient factors and their impact on posttransplant outcomes. However, limitations of statistical modeling, choice of donor factors, exclusion of unaccounted donor and geographic factors, and the changing face of the liver transplant recipient have tempered its widespread use. In addition, the DRI was derived from data before the MELD era but is currently being applied to expand the donor pool while concurrently meeting the demands of a dynamic allocation system. A decade after its introduction, DRI remains relevant but may benefit from being updated to provide guidance in the use of extended criteria donors by accounting for the impact of geography and unmeasured donor characteristics. DRI could be better adapted for recipients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease by examining and including recipient factors unique to this population. Liver Transplantation 23 1216-1225 2017 AASLD. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Psychosocial work factors and long sickness absence in Europe.

PubMed

Slany, Corinna; Schütte, Stefanie; Chastang, Jean-François; Parent-Thirion, Agnès; Vermeylen, Greet; Niedhammer, Isabelle

2014-01-01

Studies exploring a wide range of psychosocial work factors separately and together in association with long sickness absence are still lacking. The objective of this study was to explore the associations between psychosocial work factors measured following a comprehensive instrument (Copenhagen psychosocial questionnaire, COPSOQ) and long sickness absence (> 7 days/year) in European employees of 34 countries. An additional objective was to study the differences in these associations according to gender and countries. The study population consisted of 16 120 male and 16 588 female employees from the 2010 European working conditions survey. Twenty-five psychosocial work factors were explored. Statistical analysis was performed using multilevel logistic regression models and interaction testing. When studied together in the same model, factors related to job demands (quantitative demands and demands for hiding emotions), possibilities for development, social relationships (role conflicts, quality of leadership, social support, and sense of community), workplace violence (physical violence, bullying, and discrimination), shift work, and job promotion were associated with long sickness absence. Almost no difference was observed according to gender and country. Comprehensive prevention policies oriented to psychosocial work factors may be useful to prevent long sickness absence at European level.

Psychosocial work factors and long sickness absence in Europe

PubMed Central

Slany, Corinna; Schütte, Stefanie; Chastang, Jean-François; Parent-Thirion, Agnès; Vermeylen, Greet; Niedhammer, Isabelle

2014-01-01

Background: Studies exploring a wide range of psychosocial work factors separately and together in association with long sickness absence are still lacking. Objectives: The objective of this study was to explore the associations between psychosocial work factors measured following a comprehensive instrument (Copenhagen psychosocial questionnaire, COPSOQ) and long sickness absence (>7 days/year) in European employees of 34 countries. An additional objective was to study the differences in these associations according to gender and countries. Methods: The study population consisted of 16 120 male and 16 588 female employees from the 2010 European working conditions survey. Twenty-five psychosocial work factors were explored. Statistical analysis was performed using multilevel logistic regression models and interaction testing. Results: When studied together in the same model, factors related to job demands (quantitative demands and demands for hiding emotions), possibilities for development, social relationships (role conflicts, quality of leadership, social support, and sense of community), workplace violence (physical violence, bullying, and discrimination), shift work, and job promotion were associated with long sickness absence. Almost no difference was observed according to gender and country. Conclusions: Comprehensive prevention policies oriented to psychosocial work factors may be useful to prevent long sickness absence at European level. PMID:24176393

Complex phenomena in social and financial systems : from bird population growth to the dynamics of the mutual fund industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarzkopf, Yonathan

2011-12-01

This dissertation explores the impact of gasoline prices and transportation policies on consumer behavior through three separate channels: (1) by affecting the relative operating costs of the vehicles in a household's garage, (2) through stimulation of vehicle purchases due to the Cash-for-Clunkers policy, and (3) due to the availability and accessibility of high quality public transportation. Each of these channels is explored in a separate chapter. The first chapter presents a discrete-continuous household vehicle bundle model, where the household's choice of vehicles and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is affected by gasoline prices and household and vehicle characteristics. I employ a revealed preference approach that allows for an unlimited choice set, within household vehicle substitution, vehicle specific fixed effects, and unobserved consumer heterogeneity. I use detailed micro-data from the National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS) 2001 and 2009 to explore how different research assumptions affect how elastic households appear to the researcher. The second chapter analyzes the impact of the Cash-for-Clunkers policy implemented in fall 2009 on vehicle demand, overall emissions, gasoline demand, and job creation. We employ a difference-in-difference estimation technique, using Canada as the control group, and find that the policy overpriced the reduction of emissions relative to other emissions reductions policies. Finally, the third chapter explores how the availability of public transportation affects how sensitive individuals are to gasoline prices. Through the use of regressions and the NHTS 2001 dataset, we find that living in a city with good public transportation allows individuals to substitute a portion of their VMT, specifically in commuting, from private to public transit options, thus increasing their sensitivity to gasoline prices. We find that a gasoline tax in conjunction with an improvement in public transportation infrastructure could significantly reduce gasoline demand more than just a gasoline tax alone. There are many factors that affect gasoline and vehicle demand- public policies, household heterogeneity, public transportation availability, and prices. This dissertation explores how different research assumptions and techniques can change how responsive individuals appear to gasoline prices, and analyzes the impact of different transportation policies on overall gasoline and vehicle demand.

Performance-based plastic design of earthquake resistant reinforced concrete moment frames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Wen-Cheng

Performance-Based Plastic Design (PBPD) method has been recently developed to achieve enhanced performance of earthquake resistant structures. The design concept uses pre-selected target drift and yield mechanism as performance criteria. The design base shear for selected hazard level is determined by equating the work needed to push the structure monotonically up to the target drift to the corresponding energy demand of an equivalent SDOF oscillator. This study presents development of the PBPD approach as applied to reinforced concrete special moment frame (RC SMF) structures. RC structures present special challenge because of their complex and degrading ("pinched") hysteretic behavior. In order to account for the degrading hysteretic behavior the 1-EMA 440 C2 factor approach was used in the process of determining the design base shear. Four baseline RC SMF (4, 8, 12 and 20-story) as used in the FEMA P695 were selected for this study. Those frames were redesigned by the PBPD approach. The baseline frames and the PBPD frames were subjected to extensive inelastic pushover and time-history analyses. The PBPD frames showed much improved response meeting all desired performance objectives, including the intended yield mechanisms and the target drifts. On the contrary, the baseline frames experienced large story drifts due to flexural yielding of the columns. The work-energy equation to determine design base shear can also be used to estimate seismic demands, called the energy spectrum method. In this approach the skeleton force-displacement (capacity) curve of the structure is converted into energy-displacement plot (Ec) which is superimposed over the corresponding energy demand plot ( Ed) for the specified hazard level to determine the expected peak displacement demands. In summary, this study shows that the PBPD approach can be successfully applied to RC moment frame structures as well, and that the responses of the example moment frames were much improved over those of the corresponding baseline frames. In addition, the drift demands of all study frames as computed by the energy spectrum method were in excellent agreement with those obtained from detailed inelastic dynamic analyses.

[Application of job demands-resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands].

PubMed

Potocka, Adrianna; Waszkowska, Małgorzata

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model in the explanation of these phenomena. The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. The results showed that job satisfaction increased with increasing job accessibility and personal resources (r = 0.44; r = 0.31; p < 0.05). The analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that job resources and job demands [F(1.474) = 4.004; F(1.474) = 4.166; p < 0.05] were statistically significant sources of variation in job satisfaction. Moreover, interactions between job demands and job resources [F(3,474) = 2.748; p <0.05], as well as between job demands and personal resources [F(3.474) = 3.021; p <0.05] had a significant impact on job satisfaction. The post hoc tests showed that 1) in low job demands, but high job resources employees declared higher job satisfaction, than those who perceived them as medium (p = 0.0001) or low (p = 0.0157); 2) when the level of job demands was perceived as medium, employees with high personal resources declared significantly higher job satisfaction than those with low personal resources (p = 0.0001). The JD-R model can be used to investigate job satisfaction. Taking into account fundamental factors of this model, in organizational management there are possibilities of shaping job satisfaction among employees.

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

Application of a hurdle negative binomial count data model to demand for bass fishing in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Florkowski, Wojciech J

2007-06-01

This paper identifies factors that influence the demand for a bass fishing trip taken in the southeastern United States using a hurdle negative binomial count data model. The probability of fishing for a bass is estimated in the first stage and the fishing trip frequency is estimated in the second stage for individuals reporting bass fishing trips in the Southeast. The applied approach allows the decomposition of the effects of factors responsible for the decision to take a trip and the trip number. Calculated partial and total elasticities indicate a highly inelastic demand for the number of fishing trips as trip costs increase. However, the demand can be expected to increase if anglers experience a success measured by the number of caught fish or their size. Benefit estimates based on alternative estimation methods differ substantially, suggesting the need for testing each modeling approach applied in empirical studies.

Towards Universal Design Hotels in Denmark.

PubMed

Grangaard, Sidse

2016-01-01

Based on the research project 'Accessible Hotel Rooms' that studies the balance between the experience of supply and demand regarding accessibility features in Danish hotel rooms, this paper demonstrates factors having an influence on Universal Design hotels in Denmark. The research project was financed by the Danish Transport and Construction Agency. Different notions in the hotel sector of the current supply and demand for Universal Design hotel rooms are identified, as well as future demand. Despite supplying accessible rooms, some hotels do not advertise their accessibility features on their website. There exists an attitude in the hotel sector that functions as a barrier for Universal Design: if there are enough guests, for example business travellers, then why market the hotel on Universal Design? The paper points out the coherence between the understanding of the users and the view of demand. Another important factor is Corporate Social Responsibility, which can be regarded as a strategy or platform towards Universal Design hotels.

The association between job strain and emotional exhaustion in a cohort of 1,028 Finnish teachers.

PubMed

Santavirta, Nina; Solovieva, Svetlana; Theorell, Töres

2007-03-01

Teachers' work overload has been the subject of intense research, and the results of these studies show that a substantial proportion of teachers perceive their job as very stressful. To investigate how different formulations of high demands and low decision latitude was related to teachers' burnout, and to estimate the possible interaction between these factors. The sample consisted of 1,028 school teachers. Multivariate covariant analyses (MANCOVA) was used to evaluate the relationship between a high-strain job defined by 3 different cut-off points and burnout. Logistical regression analysis was used to estimate the separate and joint effects of demand and decision authority on emotional exhaustion. Interaction between high demands and low decision authority was analysed using relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). An attributable proportion (AP) was calculated in order to estimate the proportion of emotionally exhausted teachers among those exposed to both risk factors that was attributable to their synergistic interaction. The group of teachers who perceived their job as a low-strain job was used as the reference group in the analysis. The effect of job strain on burnout was proved to be consistent and robust across alternative formulations. The main effect of high demands exceeded that of low decision authority in relation to emotional exhaustion. Furthermore, the 2 factors acted synergistically to increase the risk of burnout. In the case of burnout, teachers who perceived their job as highly demanding and low in control, 69% of the effect could be attributed to the synergism of these 2 factors.

The contribution of work characteristics, home characteristics and gender to burnout in medical residents.

PubMed

Verweij, Hanne; van der Heijden, Frank M M A; van Hooff, Madelon L M; Prins, Jelle T; Lagro-Janssen, Antoine L M; van Ravesteijn, Hiske; Speckens, Anne E M

2017-10-01

Burnout is highly prevalent in medical residents. In order to prevent or reduce burnout in medical residents, we should gain a better understanding of contributing and protective factors of burnout. Therefore we examined the associations of job demands and resources, home demands and resources, and work-home interferences with burnout in male and female medical residents. This study was conducted on a nation-wide sample of medical residents. In 2005, all Dutch medical residents (n = 5245) received a self-report questionnaire on burnout, job and home demands and resources and work-home interference. Path analysis was used to examine the associations between job and home characteristics and work-home interference and burnout in both males and females. In total, 2115 (41.1 %) residents completed the questionnaire. In both sexes emotional demands at work and the interference between work and home were important contributors to burnout, especially when work interferes with home life. Opportunities for job development appeared to be an important protective factor. Other contributing and protective factors were different for male and female residents. In females, social support from family or partner seemed protective against burnout. In males, social support from colleagues and participation in decision-making at work seemed important. Effectively handling emotional demands at work, dealing with the interference between work and home, and having opportunities for job development are the most essential factors which should be addressed. However it is important to take gender differences into consideration when implementing preventive or therapeutic interventions for burnout in medical residents.

Ventilatory demand and dynamic hyperinflation induced during ADL-based tests in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease patients

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Karoliny; Gulart, Aline A.; Munari, Anelise B.; Karloh, Manuela; Mayer, Anamaria F.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background Airflow limitation frequently leads to the interruption of activities of daily living (ADL) in patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). These patients commonly show absence of ventilatory reserve, reduced inspiratory reserve volume, and dynamic hyperinflation (DH). Objective To investigate ventilatory response and DH induced by three ADL-based protocols in COPD patients and compare them to healthy subjects. Method Cross-sectional study. COPD group: 23 patients (65±6 years, FEV1 37.2±15.4%pred); control group: 14 healthy subjects (64±4 years) matched for age, sex, and body mass index. Both groups performed all three tests: Glittre-ADL test; an activity test that involved moving objects on a shelf (TSHELF); and a modified shelf protocol isolating activity with upper limbs (TSHELF-M). Ventilatory response and inspiratory capacity were evaluated. Results Baseline ventilatory variables were similar between groups (p>0.05). The ventilatory demand increased and the inspiratory capacity decreased significantly at the end of the tests in the COPD group. Ventilatory demand and DH were higher (p<0.05) in the TSHELF than in the TSHELF–M in the COPD group (p<0.05). There were no differences in DH between the three tests in the control group (p>0.05) and ventilatory demand increased at the end of the tests (p<0.05) but to a lower extent than the COPD group. Conclusion The TSHELF induces similar ventilatory responses to the Glittre-ADL test in COPD patients with higher ventilatory demand and DH. In contrast, the ventilatory response was attenuated in the TSHELF-M, suggesting that squatting and bending down during the Glittre-ADL test could trigger significant ventilatory overload. PMID:27333482

Rapid Neocortical Dynamics: Cellular and Network Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Haider, Bilal; McCormick, David A.

2011-01-01

The highly interconnected local and large-scale networks of the neocortical sheet rapidly and dynamically modulate their functional connectivity according to behavioral demands. This basic operating principle of the neocortex is mediated by the continuously changing flow of excitatory and inhibitory synaptic barrages that not only control participation of neurons in networks but also define the networks themselves. The rapid control of neuronal responsiveness via synaptic bombardment is a fundamental property of cortical dynamics that may provide the basis of diverse behaviors, including sensory perception, motor integration, working memory, and attention. PMID:19409263

Mesoscale energy deposition footprint model for kiloelectronvolt cluster bombardment of solids.

PubMed

Russo, Michael F; Garrison, Barbara J

2006-10-15

Molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to model 5-keV C60 and Au3 projectile bombardment of an amorphous water substrate. The goal is to obtain detailed insights into the dynamics of motion in order to develop a straightforward and less computationally demanding model of the process of ejection. The molecular dynamics results provide the basis for the mesoscale energy deposition footprint model. This model provides a method for predicting relative yields based on information from less than 1 ps of simulation time.

AceCloud: Molecular Dynamics Simulations in the Cloud.

PubMed

Harvey, M J; De Fabritiis, G

2015-05-26

We present AceCloud, an on-demand service for molecular dynamics simulations. AceCloud is designed to facilitate the secure execution of large ensembles of simulations on an external cloud computing service (currently Amazon Web Services). The AceCloud client, integrated into the ACEMD molecular dynamics package, provides an easy-to-use interface that abstracts all aspects of interaction with the cloud services. This gives the user the experience that all simulations are running on their local machine, minimizing the learning curve typically associated with the transition to using high performance computing services.

A Hybrid OFDM-TDM Architecture with Decentralized Dynamic Bandwidth Allocation for PONs

PubMed Central

Cevik, Taner

2013-01-01

One of the major challenges of passive optical networks is to achieve a fair arbitration mechanism that will prevent possible collisions from occurring at the upstream channel when multiple users attempt to access the common fiber at the same time. Therefore, in this study we mainly focus on fair bandwidth allocation among users, and present a hybrid Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexed/Time Division Multiplexed architecture with a dynamic bandwidth allocation scheme that provides satisfying service qualities to the users depending on their varying bandwidth requirements. Unnecessary delays in centralized schemes occurring during bandwidth assignment stage are eliminated by utilizing a decentralized approach. Instead of sending bandwidth demands to the optical line terminal (OLT) which is the only competent authority, each optical network unit (ONU) runs the same bandwidth demand determination algorithm. ONUs inform each other via signaling channel about the status of their queues. This information is fed to the bandwidth determination algorithm which is run by each ONU in a distributed manner. Furthermore, Light Load Penalty, which is a phenomenon in optical communications, is mitigated by limiting the amount of bandwidth that an ONU can demand. PMID:24194684

Embedding an evolving agricultural system within a water resources planning model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, C.; Joyce, B.; Purkey, D.; Dale, L.; Mehta, V.

2008-12-01

The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system is a comprehensive, fully integrated water basin analysis tool. It is a simulation model that includes a robust and flexible representation of water demands from all sectors and flexible, programmable operating rules for infrastructure elements such as reservoirs, canals, and hydropower projects. Additionally, it has watershed rainfall-runoff modeling capabilities that allow all portions of the water infrastructure and demand to be dynamically nested within the underlying hydrological processes. WEAP also allows for linking with other models to provide feedback mechanisms whereby the management regime can be altered to respond to changing water supply conditions. This study presents an application wherein the year-to-year cropping decisions of farmers in California's Central Valley are reactive to changes in water supply conditions. To capture this dynamic, we have included in WEAP a link to an agricultural economics model (the Central Valley Production Model) that relates cropping decisions to water supply conditions (surface water allocations and depth to groundwater) and economic considerations (cost of electricity) at the time of planting. This linked model was used to evaluate changes in water supply and demand in the context of projected climate change over the next century.

Labour supply in the home care industry: A case study in a Dutch region.

PubMed

Breedveld, Elly J; Meijboom, Bert R; de Roo, Aad A

2006-04-01

Health organizations have started to become more market-driven. Therefore, it is important for health organizations to analyse the competitive dynamics of their industrial structure. However, relevant theories and models have mainly been developed for organizations acting in the profit sector. In this paper, we adapt Porter's 'five forces model' to the home care industry. In particular, we modify the (determinants of the) bargaining power of labour suppliers. We then apply the modified Porter-model to the home care industry in the Netherlands for the period of 1987-1997 with special attention for labour supply. The new instrument clarifies the complexity of the supply chains and value systems of the home care industry. As can be illustrated by developments in the home care industry in the province of North Brabant during the 1990s, competition between home care providers has influenced labour market relations, but so do other factors as well. Between 1987 and 1997, the bargaining power of labour suppliers was relatively limited. After 1997, however, the demand for home care personnel has increased strongly. In spite of the present economic recession, scarcity on this labour market seems to prevail in the longer term due to a growing demand for home care services.

A novel LTE scheduling algorithm for green technology in smart grid.

PubMed

Hindia, Mohammad Nour; Reza, Ahmed Wasif; Noordin, Kamarul Ariffin; Chayon, Muhammad Hasibur Rashid

2015-01-01

Smart grid (SG) application is being used nowadays to meet the demand of increasing power consumption. SG application is considered as a perfect solution for combining renewable energy resources and electrical grid by means of creating a bidirectional communication channel between the two systems. In this paper, three SG applications applicable to renewable energy system, namely, distribution automation (DA), distributed energy system-storage (DER) and electrical vehicle (EV), are investigated in order to study their suitability in Long Term Evolution (LTE) network. To compensate the weakness in the existing scheduling algorithms, a novel bandwidth estimation and allocation technique and a new scheduling algorithm are proposed. The technique allocates available network resources based on application's priority, whereas the algorithm makes scheduling decision based on dynamic weighting factors of multi-criteria to satisfy the demands (delay, past average throughput and instantaneous transmission rate) of quality of service. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed mechanism achieves higher throughput, lower delay and lower packet loss rate for DA and DER as well as provide a degree of service for EV. In terms of fairness, the proposed algorithm shows 3%, 7 % and 9% better performance compared to exponential rule (EXP-Rule), modified-largest weighted delay first (M-LWDF) and exponential/PF (EXP/PF), respectively.

A Novel LTE Scheduling Algorithm for Green Technology in Smart Grid

PubMed Central

Hindia, Mohammad Nour; Reza, Ahmed Wasif; Noordin, Kamarul Ariffin; Chayon, Muhammad Hasibur Rashid

2015-01-01

Smart grid (SG) application is being used nowadays to meet the demand of increasing power consumption. SG application is considered as a perfect solution for combining renewable energy resources and electrical grid by means of creating a bidirectional communication channel between the two systems. In this paper, three SG applications applicable to renewable energy system, namely, distribution automation (DA), distributed energy system-storage (DER) and electrical vehicle (EV), are investigated in order to study their suitability in Long Term Evolution (LTE) network. To compensate the weakness in the existing scheduling algorithms, a novel bandwidth estimation and allocation technique and a new scheduling algorithm are proposed. The technique allocates available network resources based on application’s priority, whereas the algorithm makes scheduling decision based on dynamic weighting factors of multi-criteria to satisfy the demands (delay, past average throughput and instantaneous transmission rate) of quality of service. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed mechanism achieves higher throughput, lower delay and lower packet loss rate for DA and DER as well as provide a degree of service for EV. In terms of fairness, the proposed algorithm shows 3%, 7 % and 9% better performance compared to exponential rule (EXP-Rule), modified-largest weighted delay first (M-LWDF) and exponential/PF (EXP/PF), respectively. PMID:25830703

GIS for public health : A study of Andhra Pradesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrinagesh, B.; Kalpana, Markandey; Kiran, Baktula

2014-06-01

Geographic information systems and remote sensing have capabilities that are ideally suited for use in infectious disease surveillance and control, particularly for the many vector-borne neglected diseases that are often found in poor populations in remote rural areas. They are also highly relevant to meet the demands of outbreak investigation and response, where prompt location of cases, rapid communication of information, and quick mapping of the epidemic's dynamics are vital. The situation has changed dramatically over the past few years. GIS helps in determining geographic distribution of diseases, analysing spatial and temporal trends, Mapping populations at risk, Stratifying risk factors, Assessing resource allocation, Planning and targeting interventions, Monitoring diseases and interventions over time. There are vast disparities in people's health even among the different districts across the state of Andhra Pradesh largely attributed to the resource allocation by the state government. Despite having centers of excellence in healthcare delivery, these facilities are limited and are inadequate in meeting the current healthcare demands. The main objectives are to study the prevalent diseases in Andhra Pradesh, to study the infrastructural facilities available in A.P. The methodology includes the Spatial Database, which will be mostly in the form of digitized format. The Non-Spatial Database includes both secondary data as well as the primary data.

Photosynthetic capacity regulation is uncoupled from nutrient limitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N. G.; Keenan, T. F.; Prentice, I. C.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem and Earth system models need information on leaf-level photosynthetic capacity, but to date typically rely on empirical estimates and an assumed dependence on nitrogen supply. Recent evidence suggests that leaf nitrogen is actively controlled though plant responses to photosynthetic demand. Here, we propose and test a theory of demand-driven coordination of photosynthetic processes, and use it to assess the relative roles of nutrient supply and photosynthetic demand. The theory captured 63% of observed variability in a global dataset of Rubisco carboxylation capacity (Vcmax; 3,939 values at 219 sites), suggesting that environmentally regulated biophysical costs and light availability are the first-order drivers of photosynthetic capacity. Leaf nitrogen, on the other hand, was a weak secondary driver of Vcmax, explaining less than 6% of additional observed variability. We conclude that leaf nutrient allocation is primarily driven by demand. Our theory offers a simple, robust strategy for dynamically predicting leaf-level photosynthetic capacity in global models.

Calibrating Physical Parameters in House Models Using Aggregate AC Power Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yannan; Stevens, Andrew J.; Lian, Jianming

For residential houses, the air conditioning (AC) units are one of the major resources that can provide significant flexibility in energy use for the purpose of demand response. To quantify the flexibility, the characteristics of all the houses need to be accurately estimated, so that certain house models can be used to predict the dynamics of the house temperatures in order to adjust the setpoints accordingly to provide demand response while maintaining the same comfort levels. In this paper, we propose an approach using the Reverse Monte Carlo modeling method and aggregate house models to calibrate the distribution parameters ofmore » the house models for a population of residential houses. Given the aggregate AC power demand for the population, the approach can successfully estimate the distribution parameters for the sensitive physical parameters based on our previous uncertainty quantification study, such as the mean of the floor areas of the houses.« less

Subnanosecond polarized microfluorimetry in the time domain: An instrument for studying receptor trafficking in live cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Fernandez, M. L.; Tobin, M. J.; Clarke, D. T.; Gregory, C. M.; Jones, G. R.

1998-02-01

We describe an instrument designed to monitor molecular motions in multiphasic, weakly fluorescent microscopic systems. It combines synchrotron radiation, a low irradiance polarized microfluorimeter, and an automated, multiframing, single-photon-counting data acquisition system, and is capable of continually accumulating subnanosecond resolved anisotropy decays with a real-time resolution of about 60 s. The instrument has initially been built to monitor ligand-receptor interactions in living cells, but can equally be applied to the continual measurement of any dynamic process involving fluorescent molecules, that occurs over a time scale from a few minutes to several hours. As a particularly demanding demonstration of its capabilities, we have used it to monitor the environmental constraints imposed on the peptide hormone epidermal growth factor during its endocytosis and recycling to the cell surface in live cells.