Thermal form-factor approach to dynamical correlation functions of integrable lattice models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göhmann, Frank; Karbach, Michael; Klümper, Andreas; Kozlowski, Karol K.; Suzuki, Junji

2017-11-01

We propose a method for calculating dynamical correlation functions at finite temperature in integrable lattice models of Yang-Baxter type. The method is based on an expansion of the correlation functions as a series over matrix elements of a time-dependent quantum transfer matrix rather than the Hamiltonian. In the infinite Trotter-number limit the matrix elements become time independent and turn into the thermal form factors studied previously in the context of static correlation functions. We make this explicit with the example of the XXZ model. We show how the form factors can be summed utilizing certain auxiliary functions solving finite sets of nonlinear integral equations. The case of the XX model is worked out in more detail leading to a novel form-factor series representation of the dynamical transverse two-point function.

Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity.

PubMed

Ratkiewicz, Jacob; Fortunato, Santo; Flammini, Alessandro; Menczer, Filippo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-10-08

Online popularity has an enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems: the Wikipedia and an entire country's Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and interevent time. We propose a minimal model combining the classic preferential popularity increase mechanism with the occurrence of random popularity shifts due to exogenous factors. The model recovers the critical features observed in the empirical analysis of the systems analyzed here, highlighting the key factors needed in the description of popularity dynamics.

Research on investment decisions model of trans-regional transmission network based on the theory of NPV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zai, Wenjiao; Wang, Bo; Liu, Jichun; Shi, Haobo; Zeng, Pingliang

2018-02-01

The investment decision model of trans-regional transmission network in the context of Global Energy Internet was studied in this paper. The key factors affecting the trans-regional transmission network investment income: the income tax rate, the loan interest rate, the expected return on investment of the investment subject, the per capita GDP and so on were considered in the transmission network investment income model. First, according to the principle of system dynamics, the causality diagram of key factors was constructed. Then, the dynamic model of transmission investment decision was established. A case study of the power transmission network between China and Mongolia, through the simulation of the system dynamic model, the influence of the above key factors on the investment returns was analyzed, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model was proved.

Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: Part II analysis of CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ying-Ying; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-12-01

In this study, a simple coupled framework established in Part I is utilized to investigate inter-model diversity in simulating the equatorial Pacific SST annual cycle (SSTAC). It demonstrates that the simulated amplitude and phase characteristics of SSTAC in models are controlled by two internal dynamical factors (the damping rate and phase speed) and two external forcing factors (the strength of the annual and semi-annual harmonic forcing). These four diagnostic factors are further condensed into a dynamical response factor and a forcing factor to derive theoretical solutions of amplitude and phase of SSTAC. The theoretical solutions are in remarkable agreement with observations and CMIP5 simulations. The great diversity in the simulated SSTACs is related to the spreads in these dynamic and forcing factors. Most models tend to simulate a weak SSTAC, due to their weak damping rate and annual harmonic forcing. The latter is due to bias in the meridional asymmetry of the annual mean state of the tropical Pacific, represented by the weak cross-equatorial winds in the cold tongue region.

Teacher Behavior and Student Outcomes: Results of a European Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Panayiotou, Anastasia; Kyriakides, Leonidas; Creemers, Bert P. M.; McMahon, Léan; Vanlaar, Gudrun; Pfeifer, Michael; Rekalidou, Galini; Bren, Matevž

2014-01-01

This study investigates the extent to which the factors included in the dynamic model of educational effectiveness are associated with student achievement gains in six different European countries. At classroom level, the dynamic model refers to eight factors relating to teacher behavior in the classroom: orientation, structuring, questioning,…

Conceptual design and analysis of a dynamic scale model of the Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, D. A.; Gronet, M. J.; Tan, M. K.; Thorne, J.

1994-01-01

This report documents the conceptual design study performed to evaluate design options for a subscale dynamic test model which could be used to investigate the expected on-orbit structural dynamic characteristics of the Space Station Freedom early build configurations. The baseline option was a 'near-replica' model of the SSF SC-7 pre-integrated truss configuration. The approach used to develop conceptual design options involved three sets of studies: evaluation of the full-scale design and analysis databases, conducting scale factor trade studies, and performing design sensitivity studies. The scale factor trade study was conducted to develop a fundamental understanding of the key scaling parameters that drive design, performance and cost of a SSF dynamic scale model. Four scale model options were estimated: 1/4, 1/5, 1/7, and 1/10 scale. Prototype hardware was fabricated to assess producibility issues. Based on the results of the study, a 1/4-scale size is recommended based on the increased model fidelity associated with a larger scale factor. A design sensitivity study was performed to identify critical hardware component properties that drive dynamic performance. A total of 118 component properties were identified which require high-fidelity replication. Lower fidelity dynamic similarity scaling can be used for non-critical components.

The Longitudinal Stability and Dynamics of Group Membership in the Dual-Factor Model of Mental Health: Psychosocial Predictors of Mental Health

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Ryan M.; Hills, Kimberly J.; Huebner, E. Scott; McQuillin, Samuel D.

2012-01-01

This study examined the longitudinal stability and dynamics of group membership within the Greenspoon and Sakflofske's dual-factor model of mental health. This expanded model incorporates information about subjective well-being (SWB), in addition to psychopathological symptoms, to better identify the mental health status and current functioning of…

Dynamics of Topological Excitations in a Model Quantum Spin Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chun-Jiong; Deng, Youjin; Wan, Yuan; Meng, Zi Yang

2018-04-01

We study the quantum spin dynamics of a frustrated X X Z model on a pyrochlore lattice by using large-scale quantum Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic analytic continuation. In the low-temperature quantum spin ice regime, we observe signatures of coherent photon and spinon excitations in the dynamic spin structure factor. As the temperature rises to the classical spin ice regime, the photon disappears from the dynamic spin structure factor, whereas the dynamics of the spinon remain coherent in a broad temperature window. Our results provide experimentally relevant, quantitative information for the ongoing pursuit of quantum spin ice materials.

Application of uniform design to improve dental implant system.

PubMed

Cheng, Yung-Chang; Lin, Deng-Huei; Jiang, Cho-Pei

2015-01-01

This paper introduces the application of uniform experimental design to improve dental implant systems subjected to dynamic loads. The dynamic micromotion of the Zimmer dental implant system is calculated and illustrated by explicit dynamic finite element analysis. Endogenous and exogenous factors influence the success rate of dental implant systems. Endogenous factors include: bone density, cortical bone thickness and osseointegration. Exogenous factors include: thread pitch, thread depth, diameter of implant neck and body size. A dental implant system with a crest module was selected to simulate micromotion distribution and stress behavior under dynamic loads using conventional and proposed methods. Finally, the design which caused minimum micromotion was chosen as the optimal design model. The micromotion of the improved model is 36.42 μm, with an improvement is 15.34% as compared to the original model.

Global sensitivity analysis of a filtration model for submerged anaerobic membrane bioreactors (AnMBR).

PubMed

Robles, A; Ruano, M V; Ribes, J; Seco, A; Ferrer, J

2014-04-01

The results of a global sensitivity analysis of a filtration model for submerged anaerobic MBRs (AnMBRs) are assessed in this paper. This study aimed to (1) identify the less- (or non-) influential factors of the model in order to facilitate model calibration and (2) validate the modelling approach (i.e. to determine the need for each of the proposed factors to be included in the model). The sensitivity analysis was conducted using a revised version of the Morris screening method. The dynamic simulations were conducted using long-term data obtained from an AnMBR plant fitted with industrial-scale hollow-fibre membranes. Of the 14 factors in the model, six were identified as influential, i.e. those calibrated using off-line protocols. A dynamic calibration (based on optimisation algorithms) of these influential factors was conducted. The resulting estimated model factors accurately predicted membrane performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Dynamical Model Reveals Gene Co-Localizations in Nucleus

PubMed Central

Yao, Ye; Lin, Wei; Hennessy, Conor; Fraser, Peter; Feng, Jianfeng

2011-01-01

Co-localization of networks of genes in the nucleus is thought to play an important role in determining gene expression patterns. Based upon experimental data, we built a dynamical model to test whether pure diffusion could account for the observed co-localization of genes within a defined subnuclear region. A simple standard Brownian motion model in two and three dimensions shows that preferential co-localization is possible for co-regulated genes without any direct interaction, and suggests the occurrence may be due to a limitation in the number of available transcription factors. Experimental data of chromatin movements demonstrates that fractional rather than standard Brownian motion is more appropriate to model gene mobilizations, and we tested our dynamical model against recent static experimental data, using a sub-diffusion process by which the genes tend to colocalize more easily. Moreover, in order to compare our model with recently obtained experimental data, we studied the association level between genes and factors, and presented data supporting the validation of this dynamic model. As further applications of our model, we applied it to test against more biological observations. We found that increasing transcription factor number, rather than factory number and nucleus size, might be the reason for decreasing gene co-localization. In the scenario of frequency- or amplitude-modulation of transcription factors, our model predicted that frequency-modulation may increase the co-localization between its targeted genes. PMID:21760760

Nonlinear soil parameter effects on dynamic embedment of offshore pipeline on soft clay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Su Young; Choi, Han Suk; Lee, Seung Keon; Park, Kyu-Sik; Kim, Do Kyun

2015-06-01

In this paper, the effects of nonlinear soft clay on dynamic embedment of offshore pipeline were investigated. Seabed embedment by pipe-soil interactions has impacts on the structural boundary conditions for various subsea structures such as pipeline, riser, pile, and many other systems. A number of studies have been performed to estimate real soil behavior, but their estimation of seabed embedment has not been fully identified and there are still many uncertainties. In this regards, comparison of embedment between field survey and existing empirical models has been performed to identify uncertainties and investigate the effect of nonlinear soil parameter on dynamic embedment. From the comparison, it is found that the dynamic embedment with installation effects based on nonlinear soil model have an influence on seabed embedment. Therefore, the pipe embedment under dynamic condition by nonlinear parameters of soil models was investigated by Dynamic Embedment Factor (DEF) concept, which is defined as the ratio of the dynamic and static embedment of pipeline, in order to overcome the gap between field embedment and currently used empirical and numerical formula. Although DEF through various researches is suggested, its range is too wide and it does not consider dynamic laying effect. It is difficult to find critical parameters that are affecting to the embedment result. Therefore, the study on dynamic embedment factor by soft clay parameters of nonlinear soil model was conducted and the sensitivity analyses about parameters of nonlinear soil model were performed as well. The tendency on dynamic embedment factor was found by conducting numerical analyses using OrcaFlex software. It is found that DEF was influenced by shear strength gradient than other factors. The obtained results will be useful to understand the pipe embedment on soft clay seabed for applying offshore pipeline designs such as on-bottom stability and free span analyses.

Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Nonparametric Durbin Models with Fixed Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qian, Minghui; Hu, Ridong; Chen, Jianwei

2016-01-01

Spatial panel data models have been widely studied and applied in both scientific and social science disciplines, especially in the analysis of spatial influence. In this paper, we consider the spatial dynamic nonparametric Durbin model (SDNDM) with fixed effects, which takes the nonlinear factors into account base on the spatial dynamic panel…

Dynamics Modelling of Transmission Gear Rattle and Analysis on Influence Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiaona; Zhang, Honghui

2018-02-01

Based on the vibration dynamics modeling for the single stage gear of transmission system, this paper is to understand the mechanism of transmission rattle. The dynamic model response using MATLAB and Runge-Kutta algorithm is analyzed, and the ways for reducing the rattle noise of the automotive transmission is summarized.

Lane-changing model with dynamic consideration of driver's propensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoyuan; Wang, Jianqiang; Zhang, Jinglei; Ban, Xuegang Jeff

2015-07-01

Lane-changing is the driver's selection result of the satisfaction degree in different lane driving conditions. There are many different factors influencing lane-changing behavior, such as diversity, randomicity and difficulty of measurement. So it is hard to accurately reflect the uncertainty of drivers' lane-changing behavior. As a result, the research of lane-changing models is behind that of car-following models. Driver's propensity is her/his emotion state or the corresponding preference of a decision or action toward the real objective traffic situations under the influence of various dynamic factors. It represents the psychological characteristics of the driver in the process of vehicle operation and movement. It is an important factor to influence lane-changing. In this paper, dynamic recognition of driver's propensity is considered during simulation based on its time-varying discipline and the analysis of the driver's psycho-physic characteristics. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to quantify the hierarchy of driver's dynamic lane-changing decision-making process, especially the influence of the propensity. The model is validated using real data. Test results show that the developed lane-changing model with the dynamic consideration of a driver's time-varying propensity and the AHP method are feasible and with improved accuracy.

Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: A dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach.

PubMed

Fountas, Grigorios; Sarwar, Md Tawfiq; Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Blatt, Alan; Majka, Kevin

2018-04-01

Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit framework is employed. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometric and traffic characteristics. To additionally account for the combined effect of the dynamic and stationary factors on the accident occurrence, the developed random parameters logit framework allows for possible correlations among the random parameters. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, for panel effects, for unobserved heterogeneity through the use of random parameters, and for possible correlation among the latter. The comparative evaluation among the correlated grouped random parameters, the uncorrelated random parameters logit models, and their fixed parameters logit counterpart, demonstrate the potential of the random parameters modeling, in general, and the benefits of the correlated grouped random parameters approach, specifically, in terms of statistical fit and explanatory power. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Comparison of Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Dynamic Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation in Fitting Covariance Structure Models to Block-Toeplitz Matrices Representing Single-Subject Multivariate Time-Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

1998-01-01

Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (p-ML) and Asymptotically Distribution Free (ADF) estimation methods for estimating dynamic factor model parameters within a covariance structure framework were compared through a Monte Carlo simulation. Both methods appear to give consistent model parameter estimates, but only ADF gives standard errors and chi-square…

Using Dynamic Multi-Task Non-Negative Matrix Factorization to Detect the Evolution of User Preferences in Collaborative Filtering

PubMed Central

Ju, Bin; Qian, Yuntao; Ye, Minchao; Ni, Rong; Zhu, Chenxi

2015-01-01

Predicting what items will be selected by a target user in the future is an important function for recommendation systems. Matrix factorization techniques have been shown to achieve good performance on temporal rating-type data, but little is known about temporal item selection data. In this paper, we developed a unified model that combines Multi-task Non-negative Matrix Factorization and Linear Dynamical Systems to capture the evolution of user preferences. Specifically, user and item features are projected into latent factor space by factoring co-occurrence matrices into a common basis item-factor matrix and multiple factor-user matrices. Moreover, we represented both within and between relationships of multiple factor-user matrices using a state transition matrix to capture the changes in user preferences over time. The experiments show that our proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithms on two real datasets, which were extracted from Netflix movies and Last.fm music. Furthermore, our model provides a novel dynamic topic model for tracking the evolution of the behavior of a user over time. PMID:26270539

Using Dynamic Multi-Task Non-Negative Matrix Factorization to Detect the Evolution of User Preferences in Collaborative Filtering.

PubMed

Ju, Bin; Qian, Yuntao; Ye, Minchao; Ni, Rong; Zhu, Chenxi

2015-01-01

Predicting what items will be selected by a target user in the future is an important function for recommendation systems. Matrix factorization techniques have been shown to achieve good performance on temporal rating-type data, but little is known about temporal item selection data. In this paper, we developed a unified model that combines Multi-task Non-negative Matrix Factorization and Linear Dynamical Systems to capture the evolution of user preferences. Specifically, user and item features are projected into latent factor space by factoring co-occurrence matrices into a common basis item-factor matrix and multiple factor-user matrices. Moreover, we represented both within and between relationships of multiple factor-user matrices using a state transition matrix to capture the changes in user preferences over time. The experiments show that our proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithms on two real datasets, which were extracted from Netflix movies and Last.fm music. Furthermore, our model provides a novel dynamic topic model for tracking the evolution of the behavior of a user over time.

Boreal soil carbon dynamics under a changing climate: a model inversion approach

Treesearch

Zhaosheng Fan; Jason C. Neff; Jennifer W. Harden; Kimberly P. Wickland

2008-01-01

Several fundamental but important factors controlling the feedback of boreal organic carbon (OC) to climate change were examined using a mechanistic model of soil OC dynamics, including the combined effects of temperature and moisture on the decomposition of OC and the factors controlling carbon quality and decomposition with depth. To estimate decomposition rates and...

Can theory predict the process of suicide on entry to prison? Predicting dynamic risk factors for suicide ideation in a high-risk prison population.

PubMed

Slade, Karen; Edelman, Robert

2014-01-01

Each year approximately 110,000 people are imprisoned in England and Wales and new prisoners remain one of the highest risk groups for suicide across the world. The reduction of suicide in prisoners remains difficult as assessments and interventions tend to rely on static risk factors with few theoretical or integrated models yet evaluated. To identify the dynamic factors that contribute to suicide ideation in this population based on Williams and Pollock's (2001) Cry of Pain (CoP) model. New arrivals (N = 198) into prison were asked to complete measures derived from the CoP model plus clinical and prison-specific factors. It was hypothesized that the factors of the CoP model would be predictive of suicide ideation. Support was provided for the defeat and entrapment aspects of the CoP model with previous self-harm, repeated times in prison, and suicide-permissive cognitions also key in predicting suicide ideation for prisoners on entry to prison. An integrated and dynamic model was developed that has utility in predicting suicide in early-stage prisoners. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed along with recommendations for future research.

Modelling oxygen transfer using dynamic alpha factors.

PubMed

Jiang, Lu-Man; Garrido-Baserba, Manel; Nolasco, Daniel; Al-Omari, Ahmed; DeClippeleir, Haydee; Murthy, Sudhir; Rosso, Diego

2017-11-01

Due to the importance of wastewater aeration in meeting treatment requirements and due to its elevated energy intensity, it is important to describe the real nature of an aeration system to improve design and specification, performance prediction, energy consumption, and process sustainability. Because organic loadings drive aeration efficiency to its lowest value when the oxygen demand (energy) is the highest, the implications of considering their dynamic nature on energy costs are of utmost importance. A dynamic model aimed at identifying conservation opportunities is presented. The model developed describes the correlation between the COD concentration and the α factor in activated sludge. Using the proposed model, the aeration efficiency is calculated as a function of the organic loading (i.e. COD). This results in predictions of oxygen transfer values that are more realistic than the traditional method of assuming constant α values. The model was applied to two water resource recovery facilities, and was calibrated and validated with time-sensitive databases. Our improved aeration model structure increases the quality of prediction of field data through the recognition of the dynamic nature of the alpha factor (α) as a function of the applied oxygen demand. For the cases presented herein, the model prediction of airflow improved by 20-35% when dynamic α is used. The proposed model offers a quantitative tool for the prediction of energy demand and for minimizing aeration design uncertainty. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Socialized Gaussian Process Models for Human Behavior Prediction in a Health Social Network

PubMed Central

Shen, Yelong; Phan, NhatHai; Xiao, Xiao; Jin, Ruoming; Sun, Junfeng; Piniewski, Brigitte; Kil, David; Dou, Dejing

2016-01-01

Modeling and predicting human behaviors, such as the level and intensity of physical activity, is a key to preventing the cascade of obesity and helping spread healthy behaviors in a social network. In our conference paper, we have developed a social influence model, named Socialized Gaussian Process (SGP), for socialized human behavior modeling. Instead of explicitly modeling social influence as individuals' behaviors influenced by their friends' previous behaviors, SGP models the dynamic social correlation as the result of social influence. The SGP model naturally incorporates personal behavior factor and social correlation factor (i.e., the homophily principle: Friends tend to perform similar behaviors) into a unified model. And it models the social influence factor (i.e., an individual's behavior can be affected by his/her friends) implicitly in dynamic social correlation schemes. The detailed experimental evaluation has shown the SGP model achieves better prediction accuracy compared with most of baseline methods. However, a Socialized Random Forest model may perform better at the beginning compared with the SGP model. One of the main reasons is the dynamic social correlation function is purely based on the users' sequential behaviors without considering other physical activity-related features. To address this issue, we further propose a novel “multi-feature SGP model” (mfSGP) which improves the SGP model by using multiple physical activity-related features in the dynamic social correlation learning. Extensive experimental results illustrate that the mfSGP model clearly outperforms all other models in terms of prediction accuracy and running time. PMID:27746515

From the big five to the general factor of personality: a dynamic approach.

PubMed

Micó, Joan C; Amigó, Salvador; Caselles, Antonio

2014-10-28

An integrating and dynamic model of personality that allows predicting the response of the basic factors of personality, such as the Big Five Factors (B5F) or the general factor of personality (GFP) to acute doses of drug is presented in this paper. Personality has a dynamic nature, i.e., as a consequence of a stimulus, the GFP dynamics as well as each one of the B5F of personality dynamics can be explained by the same model (a system of three coupled differential equations). From this invariance hypothesis, a partial differential equation, whose solution relates the GFP with each one of the B5F, is deduced. From this dynamic approach, a co-evolution of the GFP and each one of the B5F occurs, rather than an unconnected evolution, as a consequence of the same stimulus. The hypotheses and deductions are validated through an experimental design centered on the individual, where caffeine is the considered stimulus. Thus, as much from a theoretical point of view as from an applied one, the models here proposed open a new perspective in the understanding and study of personality like a global system that interacts intimately with the environment, being a clear bet for the high level inter-disciplinary research.

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE PAGES

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

2015-10-30

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

A forecasting model for power consumption of high energy-consuming industries based on system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Zongchuan; Dang, Dongsheng; Qi, Caijuan; Tian, Hongliang

2018-02-01

It is of great significance to make accurate forecasting for the power consumption of high energy-consuming industries. A forecasting model for power consumption of high energy-consuming industries based on system dynamics is proposed in this paper. First, several factors that have influence on the development of high energy-consuming industries in recent years are carefully dissected. Next, by analysing the relationship between each factor and power consumption, the system dynamics flow diagram and equations are set up to reflect the relevant relationships among variables. In the end, the validity of the model is verified by forecasting the power consumption of electrolytic aluminium industry in Ningxia according to the proposed model.

Development of a Linear Stirling Model with Varying Heat Inputs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

2007-01-01

The linear model of the Stirling system developed by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been extended to include a user-specified heat input. Previously developed linear models were limited to the Stirling convertor and electrical load. They represented the thermodynamic cycle with pressure factors that remained constant. The numerical values of the pressure factors were generated by linearizing GRC s non-linear System Dynamic Model (SDM) of the convertor at a chosen operating point. The pressure factors were fixed for that operating point, thus, the model lost accuracy if a transition to a different operating point were simulated. Although the previous linear model was used in developing controllers that manipulated current, voltage, and piston position, it could not be used in the development of control algorithms that regulated hot-end temperature. This basic model was extended to include the thermal dynamics associated with a hot-end temperature that varies over time in response to external changes as well as to changes in the Stirling cycle. The linear model described herein includes not only dynamics of the piston, displacer, gas, and electrical circuit, but also the transient effects of the heater head thermal inertia. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models, one model of the Stirling convertor and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. The thermal system model includes heat flow of heat transfer fluid, insulation loss, and temperature drops from the heat source to the Stirling convertor expansion space. The linear model was compared to a nonlinear model, and performance was very similar. The resulting linear model can be implemented in a variety of computing environments, and is suitable for analysis with classical and state space controls analysis techniques.

Development of a Linear Stirling System Model with Varying Heat Inputs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

2007-01-01

The linear model of the Stirling system developed by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been extended to include a user-specified heat input. Previously developed linear models were limited to the Stirling convertor and electrical load. They represented the thermodynamic cycle with pressure factors that remained constant. The numerical values of the pressure factors were generated by linearizing GRC's nonlinear System Dynamic Model (SDM) of the convertor at a chosen operating point. The pressure factors were fixed for that operating point, thus, the model lost accuracy if a transition to a different operating point were simulated. Although the previous linear model was used in developing controllers that manipulated current, voltage, and piston position, it could not be used in the development of control algorithms that regulated hot-end temperature. This basic model was extended to include the thermal dynamics associated with a hot-end temperature that varies over time in response to external changes as well as to changes in the Stirling cycle. The linear model described herein includes not only dynamics of the piston, displacer, gas, and electrical circuit, but also the transient effects of the heater head thermal inertia. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models, one model of the Stirling convertor and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. The thermal system model includes heat flow of heat transfer fluid, insulation loss, and temperature drops from the heat source to the Stirling convertor expansion space. The linear model was compared to a nonlinear model, and performance was very similar. The resulting linear model can be implemented in a variety of computing environments, and is suitable for analysis with classical and state space controls analysis techniques.

Dynamical structure factor of the J1-J2 Heisenberg model in one dimension: The variational Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Francesco; Parola, Alberto; Sorella, Sandro; Becca, Federico

2018-06-01

The dynamical spin structure factor is computed within a variational framework to study the one-dimensional J1-J2 Heisenberg model. Starting from Gutzwiller-projected fermionic wave functions, the low-energy spectrum is constructed from two-spinon excitations. The direct comparison with Lanczos calculations on small clusters demonstrates the excellent description of both gapless and gapped (dimerized) phases, including incommensurate structures for J2/J1>0.5 . Calculations on large clusters show how the intensity evolves when increasing the frustrating ratio and give an unprecedented accurate characterization of the dynamical properties of (nonintegrable) frustrated spin models.

Quantification of Hepatitis C Virus Cell-to-Cell Spread Using a Stochastic Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Martin, Danyelle N.; Perelson, Alan S.; Dahari, Harel

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT It has been proposed that viral cell-to-cell transmission plays a role in establishing and maintaining chronic infections. Thus, understanding the mechanisms and kinetics of cell-to-cell spread is fundamental to elucidating the dynamics of infection and may provide insight into factors that determine chronicity. Because hepatitis C virus (HCV) spreads from cell to cell and has a chronicity rate of up to 80% in exposed individuals, we examined the dynamics of HCV cell-to-cell spread in vitro and quantified the effect of inhibiting individual host factors. Using a multidisciplinary approach, we performed HCV spread assays and assessed the appropriateness of different stochastic models for describing HCV focus expansion. To evaluate the effect of blocking specific host cell factors on HCV cell-to-cell transmission, assays were performed in the presence of blocking antibodies and/or small-molecule inhibitors targeting different cellular HCV entry factors. In all experiments, HCV-positive cells were identified by immunohistochemical staining and the number of HCV-positive cells per focus was assessed to determine focus size. We found that HCV focus expansion can best be explained by mathematical models assuming focus size-dependent growth. Consistent with previous reports suggesting that some factors impact HCV cell-to-cell spread to different extents, modeling results estimate a hierarchy of efficacies for blocking HCV cell-to-cell spread when targeting different host factors (e.g., CLDN1 > NPC1L1 > TfR1). This approach can be adapted to describe focus expansion dynamics under a variety of experimental conditions as a means to quantify cell-to-cell transmission and assess the impact of cellular factors, viral factors, and antivirals. IMPORTANCE The ability of viruses to efficiently spread by direct cell-to-cell transmission is thought to play an important role in the establishment and maintenance of viral persistence. As such, elucidating the dynamics of cell-to-cell spread and quantifying the effect of blocking the factors involved has important implications for the design of potent antiviral strategies and controlling viral escape. Mathematical modeling has been widely used to understand HCV infection dynamics and treatment response; however, these models typically assume only cell-free virus infection mechanisms. Here, we used stochastic models describing focus expansion as a means to understand and quantify the dynamics of HCV cell-to-cell spread in vitro and determined the degree to which cell-to-cell spread is reduced when individual HCV entry factors are blocked. The results demonstrate the ability of this approach to recapitulate and quantify cell-to-cell transmission, as well as the impact of specific factors and potential antivirals. PMID:25833046

Marginal Utility of Conditional Sensitivity Analyses for Dynamic Models

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/MethodsDynamic ecological processes may be influenced by many factors. Simulation models thatmimic these processes often have complex implementations with many parameters. Sensitivityanalyses are subsequently used to identify critical parameters whose uncertai...

A dynamic social systems model for considering structural factors in HIV prevention and detection

PubMed Central

Latkin, Carl; Weeks, Margaret; Glasman, Laura; Galletly, Carol; Albarracin, Dolores

2010-01-01

We present a model for HIV-related behaviors that emphasizes the dynamic and social nature of the structural factors that influence HIV prevention and detection. Key structural dimensions of the model include resources, science and technology, formal social control, informal social influences and control, social interconnectedness, and settings. These six dimensions can be conceptualized on macro, meso, and micro levels. Given the inherent complexity of structural factors and their interrelatedness, HIV prevention interventions may focus on different levels and dimensions. We employ a systems perspective to describe the interconnected and dynamic processes of change among social systems and their components. The topics of HIV testing and safer injection facilities are analyzed using this structural framework. Finally, we discuss methodological issues in the development and evaluation of structural interventions for HIV prevention and detection. PMID:20838871

The results of a limited study of approaches to the design, fabrication, and testing of a dynamic model of the NASA IOC space station. Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, George W.

1985-01-01

The options for the design, construction, and testing of a dynamic model of the space station were evaluated. Since the definition of the space station structure is still evolving, the Initial Operating Capacity (IOC) reference configuration was used as the general guideline. The results of the studies treat: general considerations of the need for and use of a dynamic model; factors which deal with the model design and construction; and a proposed system for supporting the dynamic model in the planned Large Spacecraft Laboratory.

System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Homer, Jack B.; Hirsch, Gary B.

2006-01-01

The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well suited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues. The system dynamics approach involves the development of computer simulation models that portray processes of accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematically to find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance. System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention should seek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecological approach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related resources and delivery systems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modeling multiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction of delivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of national and state policy. PMID:16449591

Model of white oak flower survival and maturation

Treesearch

David R. Larsen; Robert A. Cecich

1997-01-01

A stochastic model of oak flower dynamics is presented that integrates a number of factors which appear to affect the oak pistillate flower development process. The factors are modeled such that the distribution of the predicted flower populations could have come from the same distribution as the observed flower populations. Factors included in the model are; the range...

Development and Validation of the Primary Care Team Dynamics Survey

PubMed Central

Song, Hummy; Chien, Alyna T; Fisher, Josephine; Martin, Julia; Peters, Antoinette S; Hacker, Karen; Rosenthal, Meredith B; Singer, Sara J

2015-01-01

Objective To develop and validate a survey instrument designed to measure team dynamics in primary care. Data Sources/Study Setting We studied 1,080 physician and nonphysician health care professionals working at 18 primary care practices participating in a learning collaborative aimed at improving team-based care. Study Design We developed a conceptual model and administered a cross-sectional survey addressing team dynamics, and we assessed reliability and discriminant validity of survey factors and the overall survey's goodness-of-fit using structural equation modeling. Data Collection We administered the survey between September 2012 and March 2013. Principal Findings Overall response rate was 68 percent (732 respondents). Results support a seven-factor model of team dynamics, suggesting that conditions for team effectiveness, shared understanding, and three supportive processes are associated with acting and feeling like a team and, in turn, perceived team effectiveness. This model demonstrated adequate fit (goodness-of-fit index: 0.91), scale reliability (Cronbach's alphas: 0.71–0.91), and discriminant validity (average factor correlations: 0.49). Conclusions It is possible to measure primary care team dynamics reliably using a 29-item survey. This survey may be used in ambulatory settings to study teamwork and explore the effect of efforts to improve team-based care. Future studies should demonstrate the importance of team dynamics for markers of team effectiveness (e.g., work satisfaction, care quality, clinical outcomes). PMID:25423886

Development and validation of the primary care team dynamics survey.

PubMed

Song, Hummy; Chien, Alyna T; Fisher, Josephine; Martin, Julia; Peters, Antoinette S; Hacker, Karen; Rosenthal, Meredith B; Singer, Sara J

2015-06-01

To develop and validate a survey instrument designed to measure team dynamics in primary care. We studied 1,080 physician and nonphysician health care professionals working at 18 primary care practices participating in a learning collaborative aimed at improving team-based care. We developed a conceptual model and administered a cross-sectional survey addressing team dynamics, and we assessed reliability and discriminant validity of survey factors and the overall survey's goodness-of-fit using structural equation modeling. We administered the survey between September 2012 and March 2013. Overall response rate was 68 percent (732 respondents). Results support a seven-factor model of team dynamics, suggesting that conditions for team effectiveness, shared understanding, and three supportive processes are associated with acting and feeling like a team and, in turn, perceived team effectiveness. This model demonstrated adequate fit (goodness-of-fit index: 0.91), scale reliability (Cronbach's alphas: 0.71-0.91), and discriminant validity (average factor correlations: 0.49). It is possible to measure primary care team dynamics reliably using a 29-item survey. This survey may be used in ambulatory settings to study teamwork and explore the effect of efforts to improve team-based care. Future studies should demonstrate the importance of team dynamics for markers of team effectiveness (e.g., work satisfaction, care quality, clinical outcomes). © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Analysis of Food Hub Commerce and Participation Using Agent-Based Modeling: Integrating Financial and Social Drivers.

PubMed

Krejci, Caroline C; Stone, Richard T; Dorneich, Michael C; Gilbert, Stephen B

2016-02-01

Factors influencing long-term viability of an intermediated regional food supply network (food hub) were modeled using agent-based modeling techniques informed by interview data gathered from food hub participants. Previous analyses of food hub dynamics focused primarily on financial drivers rather than social factors and have not used mathematical models. Based on qualitative and quantitative data gathered from 22 customers and 11 vendors at a midwestern food hub, an agent-based model (ABM) was created with distinct consumer personas characterizing the range of consumer priorities. A comparison study determined if the ABM behaved differently than a model based on traditional economic assumptions. Further simulation studies assessed the effect of changes in parameters, such as producer reliability and the consumer profiles, on long-term food hub sustainability. The persona-based ABM model produced different and more resilient results than the more traditional way of modeling consumers. Reduced producer reliability significantly reduced trade; in some instances, a modest reduction in reliability threatened the sustainability of the system. Finally, a modest increase in price-driven consumers at the outset of the simulation quickly resulted in those consumers becoming a majority of the overall customer base. Results suggest that social factors, such as desire to support the community, can be more important than financial factors. An ABM of food hub dynamics, based on human factors data gathered from the field, can be a useful tool for policy decisions. Similar approaches can be used for modeling customer dynamics with other sustainable organizations. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Multilevel dynamic systems affecting introduction of HIV/STI prevention innovations among Chinese women in sex work establishments.

PubMed

Weeks, Margaret R; Li, Jianghong; Liao, Susu; Zhang, Qingning; Dunn, Jennifer; Wang, Yanhong; Jiang, Jingmei

2013-10-01

Social and public health scientists are increasingly interested in applying system dynamics theory to improve understanding and to harness the forces of change within complex, multilevel systems that affect community intervention implementation, effects, and sustainability. Building a system dynamics model based on ethnographic case study has the advantage of using empirically documented contextual factors and processes of change in a real-world and real-time setting that can then be tested in the same and other settings. System dynamics modeling offers great promise for addressing persistent problems like HIV and other sexually transmitted epidemics, particularly in complex rapidly developing countries such as China. We generated a system dynamics model of a multilevel intervention we conducted to promote female condoms for HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention among Chinese women in sex work establishments. The model reflects factors and forces affecting the study's intervention, implementation, and effects. To build this conceptual model, we drew on our experiences and findings from this intensive, longitudinal mixed-ethnographic and quantitative four-town comparative case study (2007-2012) of the sex work establishments, the intervention conducted in them, and factors likely to explain variation in process and outcomes in the four towns. Multiple feedback loops in the sex work establishments, women's social networks, and the health organization responsible for implementing HIV/STI interventions in each town and at the town level directly or indirectly influenced the female condom intervention. We present the conceptual system dynamics model and discuss how further testing in this and other settings can inform future community interventions to reduce HIV and STIs.

Multilevel Dynamic Systems Affecting Introduction of HIV/STI Prevention Innovations among Chinese Women in Sex-work Establishments

PubMed Central

Weeks, Margaret R.; Li, Jianghong; Liao, Susu; Zhang, Qingning; Dunn, Jennifer; Wang, Yanhong; Jiang, Jingmei

2015-01-01

Social and public health scientists are increasingly interested in applying system dynamics theory to improve understanding and to harness the forces of change within complex, multilevel systems that affect community intervention implementation, effects, and sustainability. Building a system dynamics model based on ethnographic case study has the advantage of using empirically documented contextual factors and processes of change in a real world and real time setting that can then be tested in the same and other settings. System dynamics modeling offers great promise for addressing persistent problems like HIV and other sexually transmitted epidemics, particularly in complex rapidly developing countries like China. We generated a system dynamics model of a multilevel intervention we conducted to promote female condoms (FC) for HIV/STI prevention among Chinese women in sex-work establishments. The model reflects factors and forces affecting the study’s intervention implementation and effects. To build this conceptual model, we drew on our experiences and findings from this intensive, longitudinal mixed ethnographic and quantitative four-town comparative case study (2007–2012) of the sex-work establishments, the intervention conducted in them, and factors likely to explain variation in process and outcomes in the four towns. Multiple feedback loops in the sex-work establishments, women’s social networks, and the health organization responsible for implementing HIV/STI interventions in each town and at the town level directly or indirectly influenced the FC intervention. We present the conceptual system dynamics model and discuss how further testing in this and other settings can inform future community interventions to reduce HIV and STIs. PMID:24084394

Using group model building to develop a culturally grounded model of breastfeeding for low-income African American women in the USA.

PubMed

Reno, Rebecca

2017-03-02

To identify barriers and supporting factors for breastfeeding, and the dynamic interactions between them, as identified by low-income African American women and lactation peer helpers. Stark breastfeeding disparities exist between African American mothers and their White counterparts in the USA. This pattern is often replicated across the globe, with marginalised populations demonstrating decreased breastfeeding rates. While breastfeeding research focused on sociocultural factors for different populations has been conducted, a more dynamic model of the factors impacting breastfeeding may help identify effective leverage points for change. Group model building was used as a grounded theoretical approach, to build and validate a model representing factors impacting breastfeeding and the relationships between them. Low-income African American women (n = 21) and lactation peer helpers (n = 3) were engaged in model building sessions to identify factors impacting breastfeeding. A two-cycle process was used for analysis, in vivo and axial coding. The final factors and model were validated with a subgroup of participants. The participants generated 82 factors that make breastfeeding easier, and 86 factors that make breastfeeding more challenging. These were grouped into 10 and 14 themes, respectively. A final model was constructed identifying three domains impacting breastfeeding: a mother's return to work or school, her knowledge, support and persistence, and the social acceptance of breastfeeding. This study documented the sociocultural context within which low-income African American women are situated by identifying factors impacting breastfeeding, and the dynamic interactions between them. The model also provided various leverage points from which breastfeeding women can be supported. Postpartum nurses are critical in supporting breastfeeding practices. To be most effective, they must be aware of the factors impacting breastfeeding, some of which may be unique to women based on their culture. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Collinear Collision Chemistry: 1. A Simple Model for Inelastic and Reactive Collision Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahan, Bruce H.

1974-01-01

Discusses a model for the collinear collision of an atom with a diatomic molecule on a simple potential surface. Indicates that the model can provide a framework for thinking about molecular collisions and reveal many factors which affect the dynamics of reactive and inelastic collisions. (CC)

Mathematical Models to Determine Stable Behavior of Complex Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumin, V. I.; Dushkin, A. V.; Smolentseva, T. E.

2018-05-01

The paper analyzes a possibility to predict functioning of a complex dynamic system with a significant amount of circulating information and a large number of random factors impacting its functioning. Functioning of the complex dynamic system is described as a chaotic state, self-organized criticality and bifurcation. This problem may be resolved by modeling such systems as dynamic ones, without applying stochastic models and taking into account strange attractors.

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

Treesearch

J.A. O' Donnell; J.W. Harden; A.D. McGuire; V.E. Romanovsky

2011-01-01

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil...

A combined model of human erythropoiesis and granulopoiesis under growth factor and chemotherapy treatment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Haematotoxicity of conventional chemotherapies often results in delays of treatment or reduction of chemotherapy dose. To ameliorate these side-effects, patients are routinely treated with blood transfusions or haematopoietic growth factors such as erythropoietin (EPO) or granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF). For the latter ones, pharmaceutical derivatives are available, which differ in absorption kinetics, pharmacokinetic and -dynamic properties. Due to the complex interaction of cytotoxic effects of chemotherapy and the stimulating effects of different growth factor derivatives, optimal treatment is a non-trivial task. In the past, we developed mathematical models of thrombopoiesis, granulopoiesis and erythropoiesis under chemotherapy and growth-factor applications which can be used to perform clinically relevant predictions regarding the feasibility of chemotherapy schedules and cytopenia prophylaxis with haematopoietic growth factors. However, interactions of lineages and growth-factors were ignored so far. Results To close this gap, we constructed a hybrid model of human granulopoiesis and erythropoiesis under conventional chemotherapy, G-CSF and EPO applications. This was achieved by combining our single lineage models of human erythropoiesis and granulopoiesis with a common stem cell model. G-CSF effects on erythropoiesis were also implemented. Pharmacodynamic models are based on ordinary differential equations describing proliferation and maturation of haematopoietic cells. The system is regulated by feedback loops partly mediated by endogenous and exogenous EPO and G-CSF. Chemotherapy is modelled by depletion of cells. Unknown model parameters were determined by fitting the model predictions to time series data of blood counts and cytokine profiles. Data were extracted from literature or received from cooperating clinical study groups. Our model explains dynamics of mature blood cells and cytokines after growth-factor applications in healthy volunteers. Moreover, we modelled 15 different chemotherapeutic drugs by estimating their bone marrow toxicity. Taking into account different growth-factor schedules, this adds up to 33 different chemotherapy regimens explained by the model. Conclusions We conclude that we established a comprehensive biomathematical model to explain the dynamics of granulopoiesis and erythropoiesis under combined chemotherapy, G-CSF, and EPO applications. We demonstrate how it can be used to make predictions regarding haematotoxicity of yet untested chemotherapy and growth-factor schedules. PMID:24886056

Laplace-SGBEM analysis of the dynamic stress intensity factors and the dynamic T-stress for the interaction between a crack and auxetic inclusions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Kibum

A dynamic analysis of the interaction between a crack and an auxetic (negative Poisson ratio)/non-auxetic inclusion is presented. The two most important fracture parameters, namely the stress intensity factors and the T-stress are analyzed by using the symmetric Galerkin boundary element method in the Laplace domain for three different models of crack-inclusion interaction. To investigate the effects of auxetic inclusions on the fracture behavior of composites reinforced by this new type of material, comparisons of the dynamic stress intensity factors and the dynamic T-stress are made between the use of auxetic inclusions as opposed to the use of traditional inclusions. Furthermore, the technique presented in this research can be employed to analyze for the interaction between a crack and a cluster of auxetic/non-auxetic inclusions. Results from the latter models can be employed in crack growth analysis in auxetic-fiber-reinforced composites.

Dynamics of water confined in lyotropic liquid crystals: Molecular dynamics simulations of the dynamic structure factor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mantha, Sriteja; Yethiraj, Arun

2016-02-24

The properties of water under confinement are of practical and fundamental interest. Here in this work we study the properties of water in the self-assembled lyotropic phases of gemini surfactants with a focus on testing the standard analysis of quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QENS) experiments. In QENS experiments the dynamic structure factor is measured and fit to models to extract the translational diffusion constant, D T , and rotational relaxation time, τ R. We test this procedure by using simulation results for the dynamic structure factor, extracting the dynamic parameters from the fit as is typically done in experiments, and comparingmore » the values to those directly measured in the simulations. We find that the decoupling approximation, where the intermediate scattering function is assumed to be a product of translational and rotational contributions, is quite accurate. The jump-diffusion and isotropic rotation models, however, are not accurate when the degree of confinement is high. In particular, the exponential approximations for the intermediate scattering function fail for highly confined water and the values of D T and τ R can differ from the measured value by as much as a factor of two. Other models have more fit parameters, however, and with the range of energies and wave-vectors accessible to QENS, the typical analysis appears to be the best choice. In the most confined lamellar phase, the dynamics are sufficiently slow that QENS does not access a large enough time scale and neutron spin echo measurements would be a valuable technique in addition to QENS.« less

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-04-01

Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors influencing travel are changing significantly over time such as with an approaching hurricane - dynamic demand and t...

From quantum affine groups to the exact dynamical correlation function of the Heisenberg model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bougourzi, A.H.; Couture, M.; Kacir, M.

1997-01-20

The exact form factors of the Heisenberg models XXX and XXZ have been recently computed through the quantum affine symmetry of XXZ model in the thermodynamic limit. The authors use them to derive an exact formula for the contribution of two spinons to the dynamical correlation function of XXX model at zero temperature.

Dynamic SPECT reconstruction from few projections: a sparsity enforced matrix factorization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Qiaoqiao; Zan, Yunlong; Huang, Qiu; Zhang, Xiaoqun

2015-02-01

The reconstruction of dynamic images from few projection data is a challenging problem, especially when noise is present and when the dynamic images are vary fast. In this paper, we propose a variational model, sparsity enforced matrix factorization (SEMF), based on low rank matrix factorization of unknown images and enforced sparsity constraints for representing both coefficients and bases. The proposed model is solved via an alternating iterative scheme for which each subproblem is convex and involves the efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The convergence of the overall alternating scheme for the nonconvex problem relies upon the Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz property, recently studied by Attouch et al (2010 Math. Oper. Res. 35 438) and Attouch et al (2013 Math. Program. 137 91). Finally our proof-of-concept simulation on 2D dynamic images shows the advantage of the proposed method compared to conventional methods.

Singularities of the dynamical structure factors of the spin-1/2 XXX chain at finite magnetic field.

PubMed

Carmelo, J M P; Sacramento, P D; Machado, J D P; Campbell, D K

2015-10-14

We study the longitudinal and transverse spin dynamical structure factors of the spin-1/2 XXX chain at finite magnetic field h, focusing in particular on the singularities at excitation energies in the vicinity of the lower thresholds. While the static properties of the model can be studied within a Fermi-liquid like description in terms of pseudoparticles, our derivation of the dynamical properties relies on the introduction of a form of the 'pseudofermion dynamical theory' (PDT) of the 1D Hubbard model suitably modified for the spin-only XXX chain and other models with two pseudoparticle Fermi points. Specifically, we derive the exact momentum and spin-density dependences of the exponents ζ(τ)(k) controlling the singularities for both the longitudinal (τ = l) and transverse (τ = t) dynamical structure factors for the whole momentum range k ∈ ]0,π[, in the thermodynamic limit. This requires the numerical solution of the integral equations that define the phase shifts in these exponents expressions. We discuss the relation to neutron scattering and suggest new experiments on spin-chain compounds using a carefully oriented crystal to test our predictions.

Singularities of the dynamical structure factors of the spin-1/2 XXX chain at finite magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmelo, J. M. P.; Sacramento, P. D.; Machado, J. D. P.; Campbell, D. K.

2015-10-01

We study the longitudinal and transverse spin dynamical structure factors of the spin-1/2 XXX chain at finite magnetic field h, focusing in particular on the singularities at excitation energies in the vicinity of the lower thresholds. While the static properties of the model can be studied within a Fermi-liquid like description in terms of pseudoparticles, our derivation of the dynamical properties relies on the introduction of a form of the ‘pseudofermion dynamical theory’ (PDT) of the 1D Hubbard model suitably modified for the spin-only XXX chain and other models with two pseudoparticle Fermi points. Specifically, we derive the exact momentum and spin-density dependences of the exponents {{\\zeta}τ}(k) controlling the singularities for both the longitudinal ≤ft(τ =l\\right) and transverse ≤ft(τ =t\\right) dynamical structure factors for the whole momentum range k\\in ]0,π[ , in the thermodynamic limit. This requires the numerical solution of the integral equations that define the phase shifts in these exponents expressions. We discuss the relation to neutron scattering and suggest new experiments on spin-chain compounds using a carefully oriented crystal to test our predictions.

A system dynamics approach to develop a recovery model in the Malaysian automotive industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamad-Ali, N.; Ghazilla, R. A. R.; Abdul-Rashid, S. H.; Sakundarini, N.; Ahmad-Yazid, A.; Stephenie, L.

2017-06-01

Design strategies play a significant role to enhance recovery effectiveness at the end of product life cycle. By reviewing previous study, there are many factors involved to enhance recovery effectiveness but limited to linking design strategies factors in holistic and dynamics view. Proposed method are explained and an initial model for end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) recovery model illustrated in graphical and numerical data is presented. However this is limited to authors understanding and preliminary data which requires collaboration between designers and other stakeholders to develop a model based on actual situation.

Capturing complexity in work disability research: application of system dynamics modeling methodology.

PubMed

Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Hettinger, Lawrence J

2016-01-01

Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models. System dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention. SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered. Contemporary work disability (WD) models provide limited insight into complexity associated with WD processes. System dynamics modeling (SDM) has the potential to capture complexity through a stakeholder-based approach that generates a simulation model consisting of multiple feedback loops. SDM may enable WD researchers and practitioners to understand the structure and behavior of the WD system as a whole, and inform development of improved strategies to manage straightforward and complex WD cases.

Ion-ion dynamic structure factor of warm dense mixtures

DOE PAGES

Gill, N. M.; Heinonen, R. A.; Starrett, C. E.; ...

2015-06-25

In this study, the ion-ion dynamic structure factor of warm dense matter is determined using the recently developed pseudoatom molecular dynamics method [Starrett et al., Phys. Rev. E 91, 013104 (2015)]. The method uses density functional theory to determine ion-ion pair interaction potentials that have no free parameters. These potentials are used in classical molecular dynamics simulations. This constitutes a computationally efficient and realistic model of dense plasmas. Comparison with recently published simulations of the ion-ion dynamic structure factor and sound speed of warm dense aluminum finds good to reasonable agreement. Using this method, we make predictions of the ion-ionmore » dynamical structure factor and sound speed of a warm dense mixture—equimolar carbon-hydrogen. This material is commonly used as an ablator in inertial confinement fusion capsules, and our results are amenable to direct experimental measurement.« less

Dynamic Load on Continuous Multi-Lane Bridge Deck from Moving Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ZHU, X. Q.; LAW, S. S.

2002-04-01

The dynamic loading on a multi-lane continuous bridge deck due to vehicles moving on top at a constant velocity is investigated. The bridge is modelled as a multi-span continuous orthotropic rectangular plate with line rigid intermediate supports. The vehicle is simulated as a two-axle three-dimensional vehicle model with seven degrees of freedom according to the H20-44 vehicle design loading (AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications 1998 American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials [1]). The dynamic behavior of the bridge deck under single and several vehicles moving in different lanes is analyzed using the orthotropic plate theory and modal superposition technique. The dynamic loading is studied in terms of the dynamic impact factor of the bridge deck. The impact factor is found varying in an opposite trend as the dynamic responses for the different loading cases under study.

A Dynamic Simulation Model of the Management Accounting Information Systems (MAIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konstantopoulos, Nikolaos; Bekiaris, Michail G.; Zounta, Stella

2007-12-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the factors which determine the problems and the advantages on the design of management accounting information systems (MAIS). A simulation is carried out with a dynamic model of the MAIS design.

Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

PubMed

Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

2017-11-01

Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Generalized five-dimensional dynamic and spectral factor analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El Fakhri, Georges; Sitek, Arkadiusz; Zimmerman, Robert E.

2006-04-15

We have generalized the spectral factor analysis and the factor analysis of dynamic sequences (FADS) in SPECT imaging to a five-dimensional general factor analysis model (5D-GFA), where the five dimensions are the three spatial dimensions, photon energy, and time. The generalized model yields a significant advantage in terms of the ratio of the number of equations to that of unknowns in the factor analysis problem in dynamic SPECT studies. We solved the 5D model using a least-squares approach. In addition to the traditional non-negativity constraints, we constrained the solution using a priori knowledge of both time and energy, assuming thatmore » primary factors (spectra) are Gaussian-shaped with full-width at half-maximum equal to gamma camera energy resolution. 5D-GFA was validated in a simultaneous pre-/post-synaptic dual isotope dynamic phantom study where {sup 99m}Tc and {sup 123}I activities were used to model early Parkinson disease studies. 5D-GFA was also applied to simultaneous perfusion/dopamine transporter (DAT) dynamic SPECT in rhesus monkeys. In the striatal phantom, 5D-GFA yielded significantly more accurate and precise estimates of both primary {sup 99m}Tc (bias=6.4%{+-}4.3%) and {sup 123}I (-1.7%{+-}6.9%) time activity curves (TAC) compared to conventional FADS (biases=15.5%{+-}10.6% in {sup 99m}Tc and 8.3%{+-}12.7% in {sup 123}I, p<0.05). Our technique was also validated in two primate dynamic dual isotope perfusion/DAT transporter studies. Biases of {sup 99m}Tc-HMPAO and {sup 123}I-DAT activity estimates with respect to estimates obtained in the presence of only one radionuclide (sequential imaging) were significantly lower with 5D-GFA (9.4%{+-}4.3% for {sup 99m}Tc-HMPAO and 8.7%{+-}4.1% for {sup 123}I-DAT) compared to biases greater than 15% for volumes of interest (VOI) over the reconstructed volumes (p<0.05). 5D-GFA is a novel and promising approach in dynamic SPECT imaging that can also be used in other modalities. It allows accurate and precise dynamic analysis while compensating for Compton scatter and cross-talk.« less

Multivariate dynamical modelling of structural change during development.

PubMed

Ziegler, Gabriel; Ridgway, Gerard R; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Ashburner, John; Penny, Will

2017-02-15

Here we introduce a multivariate framework for characterising longitudinal changes in structural MRI using dynamical systems. The general approach enables modelling changes of states in multiple imaging biomarkers typically observed during brain development, plasticity, ageing and degeneration, e.g. regional gray matter volume of multiple regions of interest (ROIs). Structural brain states follow intrinsic dynamics according to a linear system with additional inputs accounting for potential driving forces of brain development. In particular, the inputs to the system are specified to account for known or latent developmental growth/decline factors, e.g. due to effects of growth hormones, puberty, or sudden behavioural changes etc. Because effects of developmental factors might be region-specific, the sensitivity of each ROI to contributions of each factor is explicitly modelled. In addition to the external effects of developmental factors on regional change, the framework enables modelling and inference about directed (potentially reciprocal) interactions between brain regions, due to competition for space, or structural connectivity, and suchlike. This approach accounts for repeated measures in typical MRI studies of development and aging. Model inversion and posterior distributions are obtained using earlier established variational methods enabling Bayesian evidence-based comparisons between various models of structural change. Using this approach we demonstrate dynamic cortical changes during brain maturation between 6 and 22 years of age using a large openly available longitudinal paediatric dataset with 637 scans from 289 individuals. In particular, we model volumetric changes in 26 bilateral ROIs, which cover large portions of cortical and subcortical gray matter. We account for (1) puberty-related effects on gray matter regions; (2) effects of an early transient growth process with additional time-lag parameter; (3) sexual dimorphism by modelling parameter differences between boys and girls. There is evidence that the regional pattern of sensitivity to dynamic hidden growth factors in late childhood is similar across genders and shows a consistent anterior-posterior gradient with strongest impact to prefrontal cortex (PFC) brain changes. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of the framework to explore the coupling of structural changes across a priori defined subnetworks using an example of previously established resting state functional connectivity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicted effect of dynamic load on pitting fatigue life for low-contact-ratio spur gears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewicki, David G.

1986-01-01

How dynamic load affects the surface pitting fatigue life of external spur gears was predicted by using the NASA computer program TELSGE. Parametric studies were performed over a range of various gear parameters modeling low-contact-ratio involute spur gears. In general, gear life predictions based on dynamic loads differed significantly from those based on static loads, with the predictions being strongly influenced by the maximum dynamic load during contact. Gear mesh operating speed strongly affected predicted dynamic load and life. Meshes operating at a resonant speed or one-half the resonant speed had significantly shorter lives. Dynamic life factors for gear surface pitting fatigue were developed on the basis of the parametric studies. In general, meshes with higher contact ratios had higher dynamic life factors than meshes with lower contact ratios. A design chart was developed for hand calculations of dynamic life factors.

Personalized dynamic prediction of death according to tumour progression and high-dimensional genetic factors: Meta-analysis with a joint model.

PubMed

Emura, Takeshi; Nakatochi, Masahiro; Matsui, Shigeyuki; Michimae, Hirofumi; Rondeau, Virginie

2017-01-01

Developing a personalized risk prediction model of death is fundamental for improving patient care and touches on the realm of personalized medicine. The increasing availability of genomic information and large-scale meta-analytic data sets for clinicians has motivated the extension of traditional survival prediction based on the Cox proportional hazards model. The aim of our paper is to develop a personalized risk prediction formula for death according to genetic factors and dynamic tumour progression status based on meta-analytic data. To this end, we extend the existing joint frailty-copula model to a model allowing for high-dimensional genetic factors. In addition, we propose a dynamic prediction formula to predict death given tumour progression events possibly occurring after treatment or surgery. For clinical use, we implement the computation software of the prediction formula in the joint.Cox R package. We also develop a tool to validate the performance of the prediction formula by assessing the prediction error. We illustrate the method with the meta-analysis of individual patient data on ovarian cancer patients.

Gait dynamics to optimize fall risk assessment in geriatric patients admitted to an outpatient diagnostic clinic

PubMed Central

de Groot, Maartje H.; van Campen, Jos P.; Beijnen, Jos H.; Hortobágyi, Tibor; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Lamoth, Claudine C. J.

2017-01-01

Fall prediction in geriatric patients remains challenging because the increased fall risk involves multiple, interrelated factors caused by natural aging and/or pathology. Therefore, we used a multi-factorial statistical approach to model categories of modifiable fall risk factors among geriatric patients to identify fallers with highest sensitivity and specificity with a focus on gait performance. Patients (n = 61, age = 79; 41% fallers) underwent extensive screening in three categories: (1) patient characteristics (e.g., handgrip strength, medication use, osteoporosis-related factors) (2) cognitive function (global cognition, memory, executive function), and (3) gait performance (speed-related and dynamic outcomes assessed by tri-axial trunk accelerometry). Falls were registered prospectively (mean follow-up 8.6 months) and one year retrospectively. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on 11 gait variables was performed to determine underlying gait properties. Three fall-classification models were then built using Partial Least Squares–Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), with separate and combined analyses of the fall risk factors. PCA identified ‘pace’, ‘variability’, and ‘coordination’ as key properties of gait. The best PLS-DA model produced a fall classification accuracy of AUC = 0.93. The specificity of the model using patient characteristics was 60% but reached 80% when cognitive and gait outcomes were added. The inclusion of cognition and gait dynamics in fall classification models reduced misclassification. We therefore recommend assessing geriatric patients’ fall risk using a multi-factorial approach that incorporates patient characteristics, cognition, and gait dynamics. PMID:28575126

Gait dynamics to optimize fall risk assessment in geriatric patients admitted to an outpatient diagnostic clinic.

PubMed

Kikkert, Lisette H J; de Groot, Maartje H; van Campen, Jos P; Beijnen, Jos H; Hortobágyi, Tibor; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Lamoth, Claudine C J

2017-01-01

Fall prediction in geriatric patients remains challenging because the increased fall risk involves multiple, interrelated factors caused by natural aging and/or pathology. Therefore, we used a multi-factorial statistical approach to model categories of modifiable fall risk factors among geriatric patients to identify fallers with highest sensitivity and specificity with a focus on gait performance. Patients (n = 61, age = 79; 41% fallers) underwent extensive screening in three categories: (1) patient characteristics (e.g., handgrip strength, medication use, osteoporosis-related factors) (2) cognitive function (global cognition, memory, executive function), and (3) gait performance (speed-related and dynamic outcomes assessed by tri-axial trunk accelerometry). Falls were registered prospectively (mean follow-up 8.6 months) and one year retrospectively. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on 11 gait variables was performed to determine underlying gait properties. Three fall-classification models were then built using Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), with separate and combined analyses of the fall risk factors. PCA identified 'pace', 'variability', and 'coordination' as key properties of gait. The best PLS-DA model produced a fall classification accuracy of AUC = 0.93. The specificity of the model using patient characteristics was 60% but reached 80% when cognitive and gait outcomes were added. The inclusion of cognition and gait dynamics in fall classification models reduced misclassification. We therefore recommend assessing geriatric patients' fall risk using a multi-factorial approach that incorporates patient characteristics, cognition, and gait dynamics.

Multi-scale modeling for the transmission of influenza and the evaluation of interventions toward it.

PubMed

Guo, Dongmin; Li, King C; Peters, Timothy R; Snively, Beverly M; Poehling, Katherine A; Zhou, Xiaobo

2015-03-11

Mathematical modeling of influenza epidemic is important for analyzing the main cause of the epidemic and finding effective interventions towards it. The epidemic is a dynamic process. In this process, daily infections are caused by people's contacts, and the frequency of contacts can be mainly influenced by their cognition to the disease. The cognition is in turn influenced by daily illness attack rate, climate, and other environment factors. Few existing methods considered the dynamic process in their models. Therefore, their prediction results can hardly be explained by the mechanisms of epidemic spreading. In this paper, we developed a heterogeneous graph modeling approach (HGM) to describe the dynamic process of influenza virus transmission by taking advantage of our unique clinical data. We built social network of studied region and embedded an Agent-Based Model (ABM) in the HGM to describe the dynamic change of an epidemic. Our simulations have a good agreement with clinical data. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that temperature influences the dynamic of epidemic significantly and system behavior analysis showed social network degree is a critical factor determining the size of an epidemic. Finally, multiple scenarios for vaccination and school closure strategies were simulated and their performance was analyzed.

Development of finite element models to predict dynamic bridge response.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-10-01

Dynamic response has long been recognized as one of the significant factors affecting the service life and safety of bridge structures. Even though considerable research, both analytical and experimental, has been devoted to dynamic bridge behavior, ...

A Model for Predicting Integrated Man-Machine System Reliability: Model Logic and Description

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-11-01

3. Fatigue buildup curve. The common requirement of all tests on the Dynamic Strength factor is for the muscles involved to propel, support, or...move the body repeatedly or to support it continuously over time. The tests of our Static Strength factor emphasize the lifting power of the muscles ...or the pounds of pressure which the muscles can exert. ... In contrast to Dynamic Strength the force exerted is against external objects, rather

Scaling behavior in the dynamics of citations to scientific journals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picoli, S., Jr.; Mendes, R. S.; Malacarne, L. C.; Lenzi, E. K.

2006-08-01

We analyze a database comprising the impact factor (citations per recent items published) of scientific journals for a 13-year period (1992 2004). We find that i) the distribution of impact factors follows asymptotic power law behavior, ii) the distribution of annual logarithmic growth rates has an exponential form, and iii) the width of this distribution decays with the impact factor as a power law with exponent β simeq 0.22. The results ii) and iii) are surprising similar to those observed in the growth dynamics of organizations with complex internal structure suggesting the existence of common mechanisms underlying the dynamics of these systems. We propose a general model for such systems, an extension of the simplest model for firm growth, and compare their predictions with our empirical results.

Conceptualizing intragroup and intergroup dynamics within a controlled crowd evacuation.

PubMed

Elzie, Terra; Frydenlund, Erika; Collins, Andrew J; Robinson, R Michael

2015-01-01

Social dynamics play a critical role in successful pedestrian evacuations. Crowd modeling research has made progress in capturing the way individual and group dynamics affect evacuations; however, few studies have simultaneously examined how individuals and groups interact with one another during egress. To address this gap, the researchers present a conceptual agent-based model (ABM) designed to study the ways in which autonomous, heterogeneous, decision-making individuals negotiate intragroup and intergroup behavior while exiting a large venue. A key feature of this proposed model is the examination of the dynamics among and between various groupings, where heterogeneity at the individual level dynamically affects group behavior and subsequently group/group interactions. ABM provides a means of representing the important social factors that affect decision making among diverse social groups. Expanding on the 2013 work of Vizzari et al., the researchers focus specifically on social factors and decision making at the individual/group and group/group levels to more realistically portray dynamic crowd systems during a pedestrian evacuation. By developing a model with individual, intragroup, and intergroup interactions, the ABM provides a more representative approximation of real-world crowd egress. The simulation will enable more informed planning by disaster managers, emergency planners, and other decision makers. This pedestrian behavioral concept is one piece of a larger simulation model. Future research will build toward an integrated model capturing decision-making interactions between pedestrians and vehicles that affect evacuation outcomes.

A Bottom-Up Approach to Understanding Protein Layer Formation at Solid-Liquid Interfaces

PubMed Central

Kastantin, Mark; Langdon, Blake B.; Schwartz, Daniel K.

2014-01-01

A common goal across different fields (e.g. separations, biosensors, biomaterials, pharmaceuticals) is to understand how protein behavior at solid-liquid interfaces is affected by environmental conditions. Temperature, pH, ionic strength, and the chemical and physical properties of the solid surface, among many factors, can control microscopic protein dynamics (e.g. adsorption, desorption, diffusion, aggregation) that contribute to macroscopic properties like time-dependent total protein surface coverage and protein structure. These relationships are typically studied through a top-down approach in which macroscopic observations are explained using analytical models that are based upon reasonable, but not universally true, simplifying assumptions about microscopic protein dynamics. Conclusions connecting microscopic dynamics to environmental factors can be heavily biased by potentially incorrect assumptions. In contrast, more complicated models avoid several of the common assumptions but require many parameters that have overlapping effects on predictions of macroscopic, average protein properties. Consequently, these models are poorly suited for the top-down approach. Because the sophistication incorporated into these models may ultimately prove essential to understanding interfacial protein behavior, this article proposes a bottom-up approach in which direct observations of microscopic protein dynamics specify parameters in complicated models, which then generate macroscopic predictions to compare with experiment. In this framework, single-molecule tracking has proven capable of making direct measurements of microscopic protein dynamics, but must be complemented by modeling to combine and extrapolate many independent microscopic observations to the macro-scale. The bottom-up approach is expected to better connect environmental factors to macroscopic protein behavior, thereby guiding rational choices that promote desirable protein behaviors. PMID:24484895

Moving alcohol prevention research forward-Part II: new directions grounded in community-based system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Apostolopoulos, Yorghos; Lemke, Michael K; Barry, Adam E; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller

2018-02-01

Given the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling; (2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research; and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. System dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational properties-stocks, flows and feedbacks-capture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches; in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. The process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques; (2) model formulation; (3) model calibration; (4) model testing and validation; and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. Community-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Environmental Factors Affecting Computer Assisted Language Learning Success: A Complex Dynamic Systems Conceptual Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marek, Michael W.; Wu, Wen-Chi Vivian

2014-01-01

This conceptual, interdisciplinary inquiry explores Complex Dynamic Systems as the concept relates to the internal and external environmental factors affecting computer assisted language learning (CALL). Based on the results obtained by de Rosnay ["World Futures: The Journal of General Evolution", 67(4/5), 304-315 (2011)], who observed…

A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mizell, Carolyn Barrett; Malone, Linda

2007-01-01

The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

Recursive flexible multibody system dynamics using spatial operators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jain, A.; Rodriguez, G.

1992-01-01

This paper uses spatial operators to develop new spatially recursive dynamics algorithms for flexible multibody systems. The operator description of the dynamics is identical to that for rigid multibody systems. Assumed-mode models are used for the deformation of each individual body. The algorithms are based on two spatial operator factorizations of the system mass matrix. The first (Newton-Euler) factorization of the mass matrix leads to recursive algorithms for the inverse dynamics, mass matrix evaluation, and composite-body forward dynamics for the systems. The second (innovations) factorization of the mass matrix, leads to an operator expression for the mass matrix inverse and to a recursive articulated-body forward dynamics algorithm. The primary focus is on serial chains, but extensions to general topologies are also described. A comparison of computational costs shows that the articulated-body, forward dynamics algorithm is much more efficient than the composite-body algorithm for most flexible multibody systems.

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

PubMed Central

Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.; Nestel, David

2015-01-01

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics. PMID:26010332

The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

2017-12-01

Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

Wind Tunnel to Atmospheric Mapping for Static Aeroelastic Scaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heeg, Jennifer; Spain, Charles V.; Rivera, J. A.

2004-01-01

Wind tunnel to Atmospheric Mapping (WAM) is a methodology for scaling and testing a static aeroelastic wind tunnel model. The WAM procedure employs scaling laws to define a wind tunnel model and wind tunnel test points such that the static aeroelastic flight test data and wind tunnel data will be correlated throughout the test envelopes. This methodology extends the notion that a single test condition - combination of Mach number and dynamic pressure - can be matched by wind tunnel data. The primary requirements for affecting this extension are matching flight Mach numbers, maintaining a constant dynamic pressure scale factor and setting the dynamic pressure scale factor in accordance with the stiffness scale factor. The scaling is enabled by capabilities of the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) and by relaxation of scaling requirements present in the dynamic problem that are not critical to the static aeroelastic problem. The methodology is exercised in two example scaling problems: an arbitrarily scaled wing and a practical application to the scaling of the Active Aeroelastic Wing flight vehicle for testing in the TDT.

Use of measurement theory for operationalization and quantification of psychological constructs in systems dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitkov-Norris, Elena; Yeghiazarian, Ara

2016-11-01

The analytical tools available to social scientists have traditionally been adapted from tools originally designed for analysis of natural science phenomena. This article discusses the applicability of systems dynamics - a qualitative based modelling approach, as a possible analysis and simulation tool that bridges the gap between social and natural sciences. After a brief overview of the systems dynamics modelling methodology, the advantages as well as limiting factors of systems dynamics to the potential applications in the field of social sciences and human interactions are discussed. The issues arise with regards to operationalization and quantification of latent constructs at the simulation building stage of the systems dynamics methodology and measurement theory is proposed as a ready and waiting solution to the problem of dynamic model calibration, with a view of improving simulation model reliability and validity and encouraging the development of standardised, modular system dynamics models that can be used in social science research.

Dynamic Characteristics of Simple Cylindrical Hydraulic Engine Mount Utilizing Air Compressibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakahara, Kazunari; Nakagawa, Noritoshi; Ohta, Katsutoshi

A cylindrical hydraulic engine mount with simple construction has been developed. This engine mount has a sub chamber formed by utilizing air compressibility without a diaphragm. A mathematical model of the mount is presented to predict non-linear dynamic characteristics in consideration of the effect of the excitation amplitude on the storage stiffness and loss factor. The mathematical model predicts experimental results well for the frequency responses of the storage stiffness and loss factor over the frequency range of 5 Hz to 60Hz. The effect of air volume and internal pressure on the dynamic characteristics is clarified by the analysis and dynamic characterization testing. The effectiveness of the cylindrical hydraulic engine mount on the reduction of engine shake is demonstrated for riding comfort through on-vehicle testing with a chassis dynamometer.

SEIPS 2.0: a human factors framework for studying and improving the work of healthcare professionals and patients.

PubMed

Holden, Richard J; Carayon, Pascale; Gurses, Ayse P; Hoonakker, Peter; Hundt, Ann Schoofs; Ozok, A Ant; Rivera-Rodriguez, A Joy

2013-01-01

Healthcare practitioners, patient safety leaders, educators and researchers increasingly recognise the value of human factors/ergonomics and make use of the discipline's person-centred models of sociotechnical systems. This paper first reviews one of the most widely used healthcare human factors systems models, the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) model, and then introduces an extended model, 'SEIPS 2.0'. SEIPS 2.0 incorporates three novel concepts into the original model: configuration, engagement and adaptation. The concept of configuration highlights the dynamic, hierarchical and interactive properties of sociotechnical systems, making it possible to depict how health-related performance is shaped at 'a moment in time'. Engagement conveys that various individuals and teams can perform health-related activities separately and collaboratively. Engaged individuals often include patients, family caregivers and other non-professionals. Adaptation is introduced as a feedback mechanism that explains how dynamic systems evolve in planned and unplanned ways. Key implications and future directions for human factors research in healthcare are discussed.

Dynamic modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems for off-grid applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasemeyer, Mark David

The volatile prices of fossil fuels and their contribution to global warming have caused many people to turn to renewable energy systems. Many developing communities are forced to use these systems as they are too far from electrical distribution. As a result, numerous software models have been developed to simulate hybrid renewable energy systems. However almost, if not all, implementations are static in design. A static design limits the ability of the model to account for changes over time. Dynamic modeling can be used to fill the gaps where other modeling techniques fall short. This modeling practice allows the user to account for the effects of technological and economic factors over time. These factors can include changes in energy demand, energy production, and income level. Dynamic modeling can be particularly useful for developing communities who are off-grid and developing at rapid rates. In this study, a dynamic model was used to evaluate a real world system. A non-governmental organization interested in improving their current infrastructure was selected. Five different scenarios were analyzed and compared in order to discover which factors the model is most sensitive to. In four of the scenarios, a new energy system was purchased in order to account for the opening of a restaurant that would be used as a source of local income generation. These scenarios were then compared to a base case in which a new system was not purchased, and the restaurant was not opened. Finally, the results were used to determine which variables had the greatest impact on the various outputs of the simulation.

Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method.

PubMed

Zomorodian, Mehdi; Lai, Sai Hin; Homayounfar, Mehran; Ibrahim, Shaliza; Pender, Gareth

2017-01-01

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system.

Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method

PubMed Central

Lai, Sai Hin; Homayounfar, Mehran; Ibrahim, Shaliza; Pender, Gareth

2017-01-01

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system. PMID:29216200

Analyzing the impact of social factors on homelessness: a Fuzzy Cognitive Map approach

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The forces which affect homelessness are complex and often interactive in nature. Social forces such as addictions, family breakdown, and mental illness are compounded by structural forces such as lack of available low-cost housing, poor economic conditions, and insufficient mental health services. Together these factors impact levels of homelessness through their dynamic relations. Historic models, which are static in nature, have only been marginally successful in capturing these relationships. Methods Fuzzy Logic (FL) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are particularly suited to the modeling of complex social problems, such as homelessness, due to their inherent ability to model intricate, interactive systems often described in vague conceptual terms and then organize them into a specific, concrete form (i.e., the FCM) which can be readily understood by social scientists and others. Using FL we converted information, taken from recently published, peer reviewed articles, for a select group of factors related to homelessness and then calculated the strength of influence (weights) for pairs of factors. We then used these weighted relationships in a FCM to test the effects of increasing or decreasing individual or groups of factors. Results of these trials were explainable according to current empirical knowledge related to homelessness. Results Prior graphic maps of homelessness have been of limited use due to the dynamic nature of the concepts related to homelessness. The FCM technique captures greater degrees of dynamism and complexity than static models, allowing relevant concepts to be manipulated and interacted. This, in turn, allows for a much more realistic picture of homelessness. Through network analysis of the FCM we determined that Education exerts the greatest force in the model and hence impacts the dynamism and complexity of a social problem such as homelessness. Conclusions The FCM built to model the complex social system of homelessness reasonably represented reality for the sample scenarios created. This confirmed that the model worked and that a search of peer reviewed, academic literature is a reasonable foundation upon which to build the model. Further, it was determined that the direction and strengths of relationships between concepts included in this map are a reasonable approximation of their action in reality. However, dynamic models are not without their limitations and must be acknowledged as inherently exploratory. PMID:23971944

Assessing the Risk of Crew Injury Due to Dynamic Loads During Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somers, J. T.; Gernhardt, M.; Newby, N.

2014-01-01

Spaceflight requires tremendous amounts of energy to achieve Earth orbit and to attain escape velocity for interplanetary missions. Although the majority of the energy is managed in such a way as to limit the accelerations on the crew, several mission phases may result in crew exposure to dynamic loads. In the automotive industry, risk of serious injury can be tolerated because the probability of a crash is remote each time a person enters a vehicle, resulting in a low total risk of injury. For spaceflight, the level of acceptable injury risk must be lower to achieve a low total risk of injury because the dynamic loads are expected on each flight. To mitigate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, the NASA Human Research Program has developed a research plan to inform the knowledge gaps and develop relevant tools for assessing injury risk. The risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be further subdivided into extrinsic and intrinsic risk factors. Extrinsic risk factors include the vehicle dynamic profile, seat and restraint design, and spacesuit design. Human tolerance to loads varies considerably depending on the direction, amplitude, and rise-time of acceleration therefore the orientation of the body to the dynamic vector is critical to determining crew risk of injury. Although a particular vehicle dynamic profile may be safe for a particular design, the seat, restraint, and suit designs can affect the risk of injury due to localized effects. In addition, characteristics intrinsic to the crewmember may also contribute to the risk of injury, such as crewmember sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight, and each astronaut may have a different risk profile because of these factors. The purpose of the research plan is to address any knowledge gaps in the risk factors to mitigate injury risk. Methods for assessing injury risk have been well documented in other analogous industries and include human volunteer testing, human exposure to dynamic environments, post-mortem human subject (PMHS) testing, animal testing, anthropomorphic test devices (ATD), dynamic models of the human, numerical models of ATDs, and numerical models of the human. Each has inherent strengths and limitations. For example, human volunteer testing is advantageous because a population can be selected that is similar to the astronaut corps; however, because of the inherent ethical limitations, only sub-injurious conditions can be tested. PMHSs can be tested in a variety of conditions including injurious levels, but the responses are not completely analogous to living human subjects. In addition, it is exceedingly difficult to select a PMHS population that is similar to the astronaut corps. ATDs are currently widely used in the automotive industry and military because they are highly repeatable and durable. Unfortunately, because they are mechanical models of the human body, the biofidelity of the responses are limited to dynamic conditions used to validate the ATD. Numerical models of the ATD, in addition to the strengths and limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional uncertainty. Dynamic models are simple and easy to use, but do not account for localized effects of the seat and suit. Finally, numerical models of the human have the potential to have the most advantages; however, the current models are not validated for the conditions expected during spaceflight. To properly assess spaceflight conditions with numerical human models, human data would be needed to optimize the model responses for those conditions. Using the appropriate assessment method with the knowledge gained for each risk factor, an appropriate approach for mitigating the risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be developed ensuring crew safety in future NASA vehicles.

Coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations for giant protein-DNA complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takada, Shoji

Biomolecules are highly hierarchic and intrinsically flexible. Thus, computational modeling calls for multi-scale methodologies. We have been developing a coarse-grained biomolecular model where on-average 10-20 atoms are grouped into one coarse-grained (CG) particle. Interactions among CG particles are tuned based on atomistic interactions and the fluctuation matching algorithm. CG molecular dynamics methods enable us to simulate much longer time scale motions of much larger molecular systems than fully atomistic models. After broad sampling of structures with CG models, we can easily reconstruct atomistic models, from which one can continue conventional molecular dynamics simulations if desired. Here, we describe our CG modeling methodology for protein-DNA complexes, together with various biological applications, such as the DNA duplication initiation complex, model chromatins, and transcription factor dynamics on chromatin-like environment.

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

IMMEDIATE EFFECTS OF A DYNAMIC ROTATION-SPECIFIC WARM-UP ON X-FACTOR AND X-FACTOR STRETCH IN THE AMATEUR GOLFER.

PubMed

Henry, Elizabeth; Berglund, Kathy; Millar, Lynn; Locke, Frederick

2015-12-01

Recent evidence suggests performing a warm-up prior to golf can improve performance and reduce injuries. While some characteristics of effective golf warm-ups have been determined, no studies have explored the immediate effects of a rotational-specific warm-up with elements of motor control on the biomechanical aspects of the full X-Factor and X-Factor Stretch during the golf swing. Thirty-six amateur golfers (mean ± SD age: 64 ± 8 years old; 75% male) were randomized into a Dynamic Rotation-Specific Warm-up group (n=20), or a Sham Warm-up group (n=16). X-Factor and X-Factor Stretch were measured at baseline and immediately following the warm-up. Mixed model ANCOVAs were used to determine if a Group*Time interaction existed for each variable with group as the between-subjects variable and time as the within-subjects variable. The mixed model ANCOVAs did not reveal a statistically significant group*time interaction for X-Factor or X-Factor Stretch. There was not a significant main effect for time for X-Factor but there was for X-Factor Stretch. These results indicate that neither group had a significant effect on improving X-Factor, however performing either warm-up increased X-Factor Stretch without significant difference between the two. The results of this study suggest that performing the Dynamic Rotation-Specific Warm-up did not increase X-Factor or X-Factor Stretch when controlled for age compared to the Sham Warm-up. Further study is needed to determine the long-term effects of the Dynamic Rotation-Specific Warm-up on performance factors of the golf swing while examining across all ages. 2b.

An integrated model of soil, hydrology, and vegetation for carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems

Treesearch

Yu Zhang; Changsheng Li; Carl C. Trettin; Harbin Li; Ge Sun

2002-01-01

Wetland ecosystems are an important component in global carbon (C) cycles and may exert a large influence on global clinlate change. Predictions of C dynamics require us to consider interactions among many critical factors of soil, hydrology, and vegetation. However, few such integrated C models exist for wetland ecosystems. In this paper, we report a simulation model...

Modeling and simulation of emergent behavior in transportation infrastructure restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ojha, Akhilesh; Corns, Steven; Shoberg, Thomas G.; Qin, Ruwen; Long, Suzanna K.

2018-01-01

The objective of this chapter is to create a methodology to model the emergent behavior during a disruption in the transportation system and that calculates economic losses due to such a disruption, and to understand how an extreme event affects the road transportation network. The chapter discusses a system dynamics approach which is used to model the transportation road infrastructure system to evaluate the different factors that render road segments inoperable and calculate economic consequences of such inoperability. System dynamics models have been integrated with business process simulation model to evaluate, design, and optimize the business process. The chapter also explains how different factors affect the road capacity. After identifying the various factors affecting the available road capacity, a causal loop diagram (CLD) is created to visually represent the causes leading to a change in the available road capacity and the effects on travel costs when the available road capacity changes.

A Strategy for Assessing the Impact of Time-Varying Family Risk Factors on High School Dropout

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randolph, Karen A.; Fraser, Mark W.; Orthner, Dennis K.

2006-01-01

Human behavior is dynamic, influenced by changing situations over time. Yet the impact of the dynamic nature of important explanatory variables on outcomes has only recently begun to be estimated in developmental models. Using a risk factor perspective, this article demonstrates the potential benefits of regressing time-varying outcome measures on…

Application of the GRC Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.; Schreiber, Jeffrey G. (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

The GRC Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model (SDM) has been developed to simulate dynamic performance of power systems incorporating free-piston Stirling convertors. This paper discusses its use in evaluating system dynamics and other systems concerns. Detailed examples are provided showing the use of the model in evaluation of off-nominal operating conditions. The many degrees of freedom in both the mechanical and electrical domains inherent in the Stirling convertor and the nonlinear dynamics make simulation an attractive analysis tool in conjunction with classical analysis. Application of SDM in studying the relationship of the size of the resonant circuit quality factor (commonly referred to as Q) in the various resonant mechanical and electrical sub-systems is discussed.

A multi-scale mathematical modeling framework to investigate anti-viral therapeutic opportunities in targeting HIV-1 accessory proteins

PubMed Central

Suryawanshi, Gajendra W.; Hoffmann, Alexander

2015-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) employs accessory proteins to evade innate immune responses by neutralizing the anti-viral activity of host restriction factors. Apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing enzyme 3G (APOBEC3G, A3G) and bone marrow stromal cell antigen 2 (BST2) are host resistance factors that potentially inhibit HIV-1 infection. BST2 reduces viral production by tethering budding HIV-1 particles to virus producing cells, while A3G inhibits the reverse transcription (RT) process and induces viral genome hypermutation through cytidine deamination, generating fewer replication competent progeny virus. Two HIV-1 proteins counter these cellular restriction factors: Vpu, which reduces surface BST2, and Vif, which degrades cellular A3G. The contest between these host and viral proteins influences whether HIV-1 infection is established and progresses towards AIDS. In this work, we present an age-structured multi-scale viral dynamics model of in vivo HIV-1 infection. We integrated the intracellular dynamics of anti-viral activity of the host factors and their neutralization by HIV-1 accessory proteins into the virus/cell population dynamics model. We calculate the basic reproductive ratio (Ro) as a function of host-viral protein interaction coefficients, and numerically simulated the multi-scale model to understand HIV-1 dynamics following host factor-induced perturbations. We found that reducing the influence of Vpu triggers a drop in Ro, revealing the impact of BST2 on viral infection control. Reducing Vif’s effect reveals the restrictive efficacy of A3G in blocking RT and in inducing lethal hypermutations, however, neither of these factors alone is sufficient to fully restrict HIV-1 infection. Interestingly, our model further predicts that BST2 and A3G function synergistically, and delineates their relative contribution in limiting HIV-1 infection and disease progression. We provide a robust modeling framework for devising novel combination therapies that target HIV-1 accessory proteins and boost antiviral activity of host factors. PMID:26385832

Dynamical spin structure factors of α-RuCl3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Takafumi; Suga, Sei-ichiro

2018-03-01

Honeycomb-lattice magnet α-RuCl3 is considered to be a potential candidate of realizing Kitaev spin liquid, although this material undergoes a phase transition to the zigzag magnetically ordered state at T N ∼ 7 K. Quite recently, inelastic neutron-scattering experiments using single crystal α-RuCl3 have unveiled characteristic dynamical properties. We calculate dynamical spin structure factors of three ab-initio models for α-RuCl3 with an exact numerical diagonalization method. We also calculate temperature dependences of the specific heat by employing thermal pure quantum states. We compare our numerical results with the experiments and discuss characteristics obtained by using three ab-initio models.

On the source of stochastic volatility: Evidence from CAC40 index options during the subprime crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slim, Skander

2016-12-01

This paper investigates the performance of time-changed Lévy processes with distinct sources of return volatility variation for modeling cross-sectional option prices on the CAC40 index during the subprime crisis. Specifically, we propose a multi-factor stochastic volatility model: one factor captures the diffusion component dynamics and two factors capture positive and negative jump variations. In-sample and out-of-sample tests show that our full-fledged model significantly outperforms nested lower-dimensional specifications. We find that all three sources of return volatility variation, with different persistence, are needed to properly account for market pricing dynamics across moneyness, maturity and volatility level. Besides, the model estimation reveals negative risk premium for both diffusive volatility and downward jump intensity whereas a positive risk premium is found to be attributed to upward jump intensity.

Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

2016-02-01

In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

Microscopic information processing and communication in crowd dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henein, Colin Marc; White, Tony

2010-11-01

Due, perhaps, to the historical division of crowd dynamics research into psychological and engineering approaches, microscopic crowd models have tended toward modelling simple interchangeable particles with an emphasis on the simulation of physical factors. Despite the fact that people have complex (non-panic) behaviours in crowd disasters, important human factors in crowd dynamics such as information discovery and processing, changing goals and communication have not yet been well integrated at the microscopic level. We use our Microscopic Human Factors methodology to fuse a microscopic simulation of these human factors with a popular microscopic crowd model. By tightly integrating human factors with the existing model we can study the effects on the physical domain (movement, force and crowd safety) when human behaviour (information processing and communication) is introduced. In a large-room egress scenario with ample exits, information discovery and processing yields a crowd of non-interchangeable individuals who, despite close proximity, have different goals due to their different beliefs. This crowd heterogeneity leads to complex inter-particle interactions such as jamming transitions in open space; at high crowd energies, we found a freezing by heating effect (reminiscent of the disaster at Central Lenin Stadium in 1982) in which a barrier formation of naïve individuals trying to reach blocked exits prevented knowledgeable ones from exiting. Communication, when introduced, reduced this barrier formation, increasing both exit rates and crowd safety.

Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Bateman, Andrew W; English, Sinead; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2014-11-01

Social and environmental factors influence key life-history processes and population dynamics by affecting fitness-related phenotypic traits such as body mass. The role of body mass is particularly pronounced in cooperative breeders due to variation in social status and consequent variation in access to resources. Investigating the mechanisms underlying variation in body mass and its demographic consequences can help elucidate how social and environmental factors affect the dynamics of cooperatively breeding populations. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of individual variation in body mass on the temporal dynamics of group size and structure of a cooperatively breeding mongoose, the Kalahari meerkat, Suricata suricatta. First, we investigate how body mass interacts with social (dominance status and number of helpers) and environmental (rainfall and season) factors to influence key life-history processes (survival, growth, emigration and reproduction) in female meerkats. Next, using an individual-based population model, we show that the models explicitly including individual variation in body mass predict group dynamics better than those ignoring this morphological trait. Body mass influences group dynamics mainly through its effects on helper emigration and dominant reproduction. Rainfall has a trait-mediated, destabilizing effect on group dynamics, whereas the number of helpers has a direct and stabilizing effect. Counteracting effects of number of helpers on different demographic rates, despite generating temporal fluctuations, stabilizes group dynamics in the long term. Our study demonstrates that social and environmental factors interact to produce individual variation in body mass and accounting for this variation helps to explain group dynamics in this cooperatively breeding population. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Building a Bridge into the Future: Dynamic Connectionist Modeling as an Integrative Tool for Research on Intertemporal Choice

PubMed Central

Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

2012-01-01

Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice. PMID:23181048

Building a bridge into the future: dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice.

PubMed

Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

2012-01-01

Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics.

PubMed

Bernaerts, Kristel; Dens, Els; Vereecken, Karen; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Standaert, Arnout R; Devlieghere, Frank; Debevere, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

2004-09-01

Description of microbial cell (population) behavior as influenced by dynamically changing environmental conditions intrinsically needs dynamic mathematical models. In the past, major effort has been put into the modeling of microbial growth and inactivation within a constant environment (static models). In the early 1990s, differential equation models (dynamic models) were introduced in the field of predictive microbiology. Here, we present a general dynamic model-building concept describing microbial evolution under dynamic conditions. Starting from an elementary model building block, the model structure can be gradually complexified to incorporate increasing numbers of influencing factors. Based on two case studies, the fundamentals of both macroscopic (population) and microscopic (individual) modeling approaches are revisited. These illustrations deal with the modeling of (i) microbial lag under variable temperature conditions and (ii) interspecies microbial interactions mediated by lactic acid production (product inhibition). Current and future research trends should address the need for (i) more specific measurements at the cell and/or population level, (ii) measurements under dynamic conditions, and (iii) more comprehensive (mechanistically inspired) model structures. In the context of quantitative microbial risk assessment, complexity of the mathematical model must be kept under control. An important challenge for the future is determination of a satisfactory trade-off between predictive power and manageability of predictive microbiology models.

A fast recursive algorithm for molecular dynamics simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jain, A.; Vaidehi, N.; Rodriguez, G.

1993-01-01

The present recursive algorithm for solving molecular systems' dynamical equations of motion employs internal variable models that reduce such simulations' computation time by an order of magnitude, relative to Cartesian models. Extensive use is made of spatial operator methods recently developed for analysis and simulation of the dynamics of multibody systems. A factor-of-450 speedup over the conventional O(N-cubed) algorithm is demonstrated for the case of a polypeptide molecule with 400 residues.

Integration of a Physically based Distributed Hydrological Model with a Model of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling: A Case Study at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastola, S.; Dialynas, Y. G.; Bras, R. L.; Arnone, E.; Noto, L. V.

2015-12-01

The dynamics of carbon and nitrogen cycles, increasingly influenced by human activities, are the key to the functioning of ecosystems. These cycles are influenced by the composition of the substrate, availability of nitrogen, the population of microorganisms, and by environmental factors. Therefore, land management and use, climate change, and nitrogen deposition patterns influence the dynamics of these macronutrients at the landscape scale. In this work a physically based distributed hydrological model, the tRIBS model, is coupled with a process-based multi-compartment model of the biogeochemical cycle to simulate the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen (CN) in the Mameyes River basin, Puerto Rico. The model includes a wide range of processes that influence the movement, production, alteration of nutrients in the landscape and factors that affect the CN cycling. The tRIBS integrates geomorphological and climatic factors that influence the cycling of CN in soil. Implementing the decomposition module into tRIBS makes the model a powerful complement to a biogeochemical observation system and a forecast tool able to analyze the influences of future changes on ecosystem services. The soil hydrologic parameters of the model were obtained using ranges of published parameters and observed streamflow data at the outlet. The parameters of the decomposition module are based on previously published data from studies conducted in the Luquillio CZO (budgets of soil organic matter and CN ratio for each of the dominant vegetation types across the landscape). Hydrological fluxes, wet depositon of nitrogen, litter fall and its corresponding CN ratio drive the decomposition model. The simulation results demonstrate a strong influence of soil moisture dynamics on the spatiotemporal distribution of nutrients at the landscape level. The carbon in the litter pool and the nitrate and ammonia pool respond quickly to soil moisture content. Moreover, the CN ratios of the plant litter have significant influence in the dynamics of CN cycling.

Initiation and dynamics of a spiral wave around an ionic heterogeneity in a model for human cardiac tissue.

PubMed

Defauw, Arne; Dawyndt, Peter; Panfilov, Alexander V

2013-12-01

In relation to cardiac arrhythmias, heterogeneity of cardiac tissue is one of the most important factors underlying the onset of spiral waves and determining their type. In this paper, we numerically model heterogeneity of realistic size and value and study formation and dynamics of spiral waves around such heterogeneity. We find that the only sustained pattern obtained is a single spiral wave anchored around the heterogeneity. Dynamics of an anchored spiral wave depend on the extent of heterogeneity, and for certain heterogeneity size, we find abrupt regional increase in the period of excitation occurring as a bifurcation. We study factors determining spatial distribution of excitation periods of anchored spiral waves and discuss consequences of such dynamics for cardiac arrhythmias and possibilities for experimental testings of our predictions.

What is India speaking? Exploring the "Hinglish" invasion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parshad, Rana D.; Bhowmick, Suman; Chand, Vineeta; Kumari, Nitu; Sinha, Neha

2016-05-01

Language competition models help understand language shift dynamics, and have effectively captured how English has outcompeted various local languages, such as Scottish Gaelic in Scotland, and Mandarin in Singapore. India, with a 125 million English speakers boasts the second largest number of English speakers in the world, after the United States. The 1961-2001 Indian censuses report a sharp increase in Hindi/English Bilinguals, suggesting that English is on the rise in India. To the contrary, we claim supported by field evidence, that these statistics are inaccurate, ignoring an emerging class who do not have full bilingual competence and switch between Hindi and English, communicating via a code popularly known as "Hinglish". Since current language competition models occlude hybrid practices and detailed local ecological factors, they are inappropriate to capture the current language dynamics in India. Expanding predator-prey and sociolinguistic theories, we draw on local Indian ecological factors to develop a novel three-species model of interaction between Monolingual Hindi speakers, Hindi/English Bilinguals and Hinglish speakers, and explore the long time dynamics it predicts. The model also exhibits Turing instability, which is the first pattern formation result in language dynamics. These results challenge traditional assumptions of English encroachment in India. More broadly, the three-species model introduced here is a first step towards modeling the dynamics of hybrid language scenarios in other settings across the world.

The Recoverability of P-Technique Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

2009-01-01

It seems that just when we are about to lay P-technique factor analysis finally to rest as obsolete because of newer, more sophisticated multivariate time-series models using latent variables--dynamic factor models--it rears its head to inform us that an obituary may be premature. We present the results of some simulations demonstrating that even…

Discrete Model of Opinion Changes Using Knowledge and Emotions as Control Variables

PubMed Central

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2012-01-01

We present a new model of opinion changes dependent on the agents emotional state and their information about the issue in question. Our goal is to construct a simple, yet nontrivial and flexible representation of individual attitude dynamics for agent based simulations, that could be used in a variety of social environments. The model is a discrete version of the cusp catastrophe model of opinion dynamics in which information is treated as the normal factor while emotional arousal (agitation level determining agent receptiveness and rationality) is treated as the splitting factor. Both variables determine the resulting agent opinion, which itself can be in favor of the studied position, against it, or neutral. Thanks to the flexibility of implementing communication between the agents, the model is potentially applicable in a wide range of situations. As an example of the model application, we study the dynamics of a set of agents communicating among themselves via messages. In the example, we chose the simplest, fully connected communication topology, to focus on the effects of the individual opinion dynamics, and to look for stable final distributions of agents with different emotions, information and opinions. Even for such simplified system, the model shows complex behavior, including phase transitions due to symmetry breaking by external propaganda. PMID:22984516

Discrete model of opinion changes using knowledge and emotions as control variables.

PubMed

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2012-01-01

We present a new model of opinion changes dependent on the agents emotional state and their information about the issue in question. Our goal is to construct a simple, yet nontrivial and flexible representation of individual attitude dynamics for agent based simulations, that could be used in a variety of social environments. The model is a discrete version of the cusp catastrophe model of opinion dynamics in which information is treated as the normal factor while emotional arousal (agitation level determining agent receptiveness and rationality) is treated as the splitting factor. Both variables determine the resulting agent opinion, which itself can be in favor of the studied position, against it, or neutral. Thanks to the flexibility of implementing communication between the agents, the model is potentially applicable in a wide range of situations. As an example of the model application, we study the dynamics of a set of agents communicating among themselves via messages. In the example, we chose the simplest, fully connected communication topology, to focus on the effects of the individual opinion dynamics, and to look for stable final distributions of agents with different emotions, information and opinions. Even for such simplified system, the model shows complex behavior, including phase transitions due to symmetry breaking by external propaganda.

Corruption dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal

2017-07-01

The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.

Dynamic Models Applied to Landslides: Study Case Angangueo, MICHOACÁN, MÉXICO.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres Fernandez, L.; Hernández Madrigal, V. M., , Dr; Capra, L.; Domínguez Mota, F. J., , Dr

2017-12-01

Most existing models for landslide zonification are static type, do not consider the dynamic behavior of the trigger factor. This results in a limited representation of the actual zonation of slope instability, present a short-term validity, cańt be applied for the design of early warning systems, etc. Particularly in Mexico, these models are static because they do not consider triggering factor such as precipitation. In this work, we present a numerical evaluation to know the landslide susceptibility, based on probabilistic methods. Which are based on the generation of time series, which are generated from the meteorological stations, having limited information an interpolation is made to generate the simulation of the precipitation in the zone. The obtained information is integrated in PCRaster and in conjunction with the conditioning factors it is possible to generate a dynamic model. This model will be applied for landslide zoning in the municipality of Angangueo, characterized by frequent logging of debris and mud flow, translational and rotational landslides, detonated by atypical precipitations, such as those recorded in 2010. These caused economic losses and humans. With these models, it would be possible to generate probable scenarios that help the Angangueo's population to reduce the risks and to carry out actions of constant resilience activities.

Integrating host, natural enemy, and other processes in population models of the pine sawfly

Treesearch

A. A. Sharov

1991-01-01

Explanation of population dynamics is one of the main problems in population ecology. There are two main approaches to the explanation: the factor approach and the dynamic approach. According to the first, an explanation is obtained when the effect of various environmental factors on population density is revealed. Such analysis is performed using well developed...

Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, Anthony D.; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

2015-12-01

Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 Pg C yr-1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RH with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai

Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here in this study we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbialmore » dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO 2 efflux (R H) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil R H (7.5 ± 2.4 PgCyr -1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil R H with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.« less

Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, A. David; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

2015-01-01

Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 Pg C yr−1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4–0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RHwith both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = −0.43 to −0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

Cancer treatment scheduling and dynamic heterogeneity in social dilemmas of tumour acidity and vasculature.

PubMed

Kaznatcheev, Artem; Vander Velde, Robert; Scott, Jacob G; Basanta, David

2017-03-14

Tumours are diverse ecosystems with persistent heterogeneity in various cancer hallmarks like self-sufficiency of growth factor production for angiogenesis and reprogramming of energy metabolism for aerobic glycolysis. This heterogeneity has consequences for diagnosis, treatment and disease progression. We introduce the double goods game to study the dynamics of these traits using evolutionary game theory. We model glycolytic acid production as a public good for all tumour cells and oxygen from vascularisation via vascular endothelial growth factor production as a club good benefiting non-glycolytic tumour cells. This results in three viable phenotypic strategies: glycolytic, angiogenic and aerobic non-angiogenic. We classify the dynamics into three qualitatively distinct regimes: (1) fully glycolytic; (2) fully angiogenic; or (3) polyclonal in all three cell types. The third regime allows for dynamic heterogeneity even with linear goods, something that was not possible in prior public good models that considered glycolysis or growth factor production in isolation. The cyclic dynamics of the polyclonal regime stress the importance of timing for anti-glycolysis treatments like lonidamine. The existence of qualitatively different dynamic regimes highlights the order effects of treatments. In particular, we consider the potential of vascular normalisation as a neoadjuvant therapy before follow-up with interventions like buffer therapy.

Archetypes for Organisational Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marais, Karen; Leveson, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

We propose a framework using system dynamics to model the dynamic behavior of organizations in accident analysis. Most current accident analysis techniques are event-based and do not adequately capture the dynamic complexity and non-linear interactions that characterize accidents in complex systems. In this paper we propose a set of system safety archetypes that model common safety culture flaws in organizations, i.e., the dynamic behaviour of organizations that often leads to accidents. As accident analysis and investigation tools, the archetypes can be used to develop dynamic models that describe the systemic and organizational factors contributing to the accident. The archetypes help clarify why safety-related decisions do not always result in the desired behavior, and how independent decisions in different parts of the organization can combine to impact safety.

System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

PubMed

Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

2015-09-15

With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Political dynamics determined by interactions between political leaders and voters.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernard, Michael Lewis; Bier, Asmeret; Backus, George A.

2010-03-01

The political dynamics associated with an election are typically a function of the interplay between political leaders and voters, as well as endogenous and exogenous factors that impact the perceptions and goals of the electorate. This paper describes an effort by Sandia National Laboratories to model the attitudes and behaviors of various political groups along with that population's primary influencers, such as government leaders. To accomplish this, Sandia National Laboratories is creating a hybrid system dynamics-cognitive model to simulate systems- and individual-level political dynamics in a hypothetical society. The model is based on well-established psychological theory, applied to both individualsmore » and groups within the modeled society. Confidence management processes are being incorporated into the model design process to increase the utility of the tool and assess its performance. This project will enhance understanding of how political dynamics are determined in democratic society.« less

Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: Factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, D.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Duncan, B.W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Carter, G.M.; Hunt, D.K.; Drese, J.H.

2010-01-01

Many ecosystems are influenced by disturbances that create specific successional states and habitat structures that species need to persist. Estimating transition probabilities between habitat states and modeling the factors that influence such transitions have many applications for investigating and managing disturbance-prone ecosystems. We identify the correspondence between multistate capture-recapture models and Markov models of habitat dynamics. We exploit this correspondence by fitting and comparing competing models of different ecological covariates affecting habitat transition probabilities in Florida scrub and flatwoods, a habitat important to many unique plants and animals. We subdivided a large scrub and flatwoods ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast into 10-ha grid cells, which approximated average territory size of the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a management indicator species. We used 1.0-m resolution aerial imagery for 1994, 1999, and 2004 to classify grid cells into four habitat quality states that were directly related to Florida Scrub-Jay source-sink dynamics and management decision making. Results showed that static site features related to fire propagation (vegetation type, edges) and temporally varying disturbances (fires, mechanical cutting) best explained transition probabilities. Results indicated that much of the scrub and flatwoods ecosystem was resistant to moving from a degraded state to a desired state without mechanical cutting, an expensive restoration tool. We used habitat models parameterized with the estimated transition probabilities to investigate the consequences of alternative management scenarios on future habitat dynamics. We recommend this multistate modeling approach as being broadly applicable for studying ecosystem, land cover, or habitat dynamics. The approach provides maximum-likelihood estimates of transition parameters, including precision measures, and can be used to assess evidence among competing ecological models that describe system dynamics. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Flexible aircraft dynamic modeling for dynamic analysis and control synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, David K.

1989-01-01

The linearization and simplification of a nonlinear, literal model for flexible aircraft is highlighted. Areas of model fidelity that are critical if the model is to be used for control system synthesis are developed and several simplification techniques that can deliver the necessary model fidelity are discussed. These techniques include both numerical and analytical approaches. An analytical approach, based on first-order sensitivity theory is shown to lead not only to excellent numerical results, but also to closed-form analytical expressions for key system dynamic properties such as the pole/zero factors of the vehicle transfer-function matrix. The analytical results are expressed in terms of vehicle mass properties, vibrational characteristics, and rigid-body and aeroelastic stability derivatives, thus leading to the underlying causes for critical dynamic characteristics.

The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

2011-01-01

We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

SEIPS 2.0: A human factors framework for studying and improving the work of healthcare professionals and patients

PubMed Central

Holden, Richard J.; Carayon, Pascale; Gurses, Ayse P.; Hoonakker, Peter; Hundt, Ann Schoofs; Ozok, A. Ant; Rivera-Rodriguez, A. Joy

2013-01-01

Healthcare practitioners, patient safety leaders, educators, and researchers increasingly recognize the value of human factors/ergonomics and make use of the discipline’s person-centered models of sociotechnical systems. This paper first reviews one of the most widely used healthcare human factors systems models, the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) model, and then introduces an extended model, “SEIPS 2.0.” SEIPS 2.0 incorporates three novel concepts into the original model: configuration, engagement, and adaptation. The concept of configuration highlights the dynamic, hierarchical, and interactive properties of sociotechnical systems, making it possible to depict how health-related performance is shaped at “a moment in time.” Engagement conveys that various individuals and teams can perform health-related activities separately and collaboratively. Engaged individuals often include patients, family caregivers, and other non-professionals. Adaptation is introduced as a feedback mechanism that explains how dynamic systems evolve in planned and unplanned ways. Key implications and future directions for human factors research in healthcare are discussed. PMID:24088063

School Policy on Teaching and School Learning Environment: Direct and Indirect Effects upon Student Outcome Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyriakides, Leonidas; Creemers, Bert P. M.

2012-01-01

School policy on teaching and the school learning environment (SLE) are the main school factors of the dynamic model of educational effectiveness (Creemers & Kyriakides, 2008). A longitudinal study in which 50 primary schools, 108 classes, and 2369 students participated generated evidence supporting the validity of the dynamic model. This…

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Analysis of Korean Students' International Mobility by 2-D Model: Driving Force Factor and Directional Factor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Elisa L.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study is to understand the dynamics of Korean students' international mobility to study abroad by using the 2-D Model. The first D, "the driving force factor," explains how and what components of the dissatisfaction with domestic higher education perceived by Korean students drives students' outward mobility to seek…

The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-20

Granger causality F-test validation 3.1.2. Dynamic time warping for uneven temporal relationships Many causal relationships are imperfectly...mapping for dynamic feedback models Granger causality and DTW can identify causal relationships and consider complex temporal factors. However, many ...variant of the tf-idf algorithm (Manning, Raghavan, Schutze et al., 2008), typically used in search engines, to “score” features. The (-log tf) in

Preliminary design, analysis, and costing of a dynamic scale model of the NASA space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gronet, M. J.; Pinson, E. D.; Voqui, H. L.; Crawley, E. F.; Everman, M. R.

1987-01-01

The difficulty of testing the next generation of large flexible space structures on the ground places an emphasis on other means for validating predicted on-orbit dynamic behavior. Scale model technology represents one way of verifying analytical predictions with ground test data. This study investigates the preliminary design, scaling and cost trades for a Space Station dynamic scale model. The scaling of nonlinear joint behavior is studied from theoretical and practical points of view. Suspension system interaction trades are conducted for the ISS Dual Keel Configuration and Build-Up Stages suspended in the proposed NASA/LaRC Large Spacecraft Laboratory. Key issues addressed are scaling laws, replication vs. simulation of components, manufacturing, suspension interactions, joint behavior, damping, articulation capability, and cost. These issues are the subject of parametric trades versus the scale model factor. The results of these detailed analyses are used to recommend scale factors for four different scale model options, each with varying degrees of replication. Potential problems in constructing and testing the scale model are identified, and recommendations for further study are outlined.

It's fun to transcribe with Fun30: A model for nucleosome dynamics during RNA polymerase II-mediated elongation.

PubMed

Lee, Junwoo; Choi, Eun Shik; Lee, Daeyoup

2018-01-01

The ability of elongating RNA polymerase II (RNAPII) to regulate the nucleosome barrier is poorly understood because we do not know enough about the involved factors and we lack a conceptual framework to model this process. Our group recently identified the conserved Fun30/SMARCAD1 family chromatin-remodeling factor, Fun30 Fft3 , as being critical for relieving the nucleosome barrier during RNAPII-mediated elongation, and proposed a model illustrating how Fun30 Fft3 may contribute to nucleosome disassembly during RNAPII-mediated elongation. Here, we present a model that describes nucleosome dynamics during RNAPII-mediated elongation in mathematical terms and addresses the involvement of Fun30 Fft3 in this process.

Heterogeneous Intracellular Trafficking Dynamics of Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Complexes in the Neuronal Soma Revealed by Single Quantum Dot Tracking

PubMed Central

Vermehren-Schmaedick, Anke; Krueger, Wesley; Jacob, Thomas; Ramunno-Johnson, Damien; Balkowiec, Agnieszka; Lidke, Keith A.; Vu, Tania Q.

2014-01-01

Accumulating evidence underscores the importance of ligand-receptor dynamics in shaping cellular signaling. In the nervous system, growth factor-activated Trk receptor trafficking serves to convey biochemical signaling that underlies fundamental neural functions. Focus has been placed on axonal trafficking but little is known about growth factor-activated Trk dynamics in the neuronal soma, particularly at the molecular scale, due in large part to technical hurdles in observing individual growth factor-Trk complexes for long periods of time inside live cells. Quantum dots (QDs) are intensely fluorescent nanoparticles that have been used to study the dynamics of ligand-receptor complexes at the plasma membrane but the value of QDs for investigating ligand-receptor intracellular dynamics has not been well exploited. The current study establishes that QD conjugated brain-derived neurotrophic factor (QD-BDNF) binds to TrkB receptors with high specificity, activates TrkB downstream signaling, and allows single QD tracking capability for long recording durations deep within the soma of live neurons. QD-BDNF complexes undergo internalization, recycling, and intracellular trafficking in the neuronal soma. These trafficking events exhibit little time-synchrony and diverse heterogeneity in underlying dynamics that include phases of sustained rapid motor transport without pause as well as immobility of surprisingly long-lasting duration (several minutes). Moreover, the trajectories formed by dynamic individual BDNF complexes show no apparent end destination; BDNF complexes can be found meandering over long distances of several microns throughout the expanse of the neuronal soma in a circuitous fashion. The complex, heterogeneous nature of neuronal soma trafficking dynamics contrasts the reported linear nature of axonal transport data and calls for models that surpass our generally limited notions of nuclear-directed transport in the soma. QD-ligand probes are poised to provide understanding of how the molecular mechanisms underlying intracellular ligand-receptor trafficking shape cell signaling under conditions of both healthy and dysfunctional neurological disease models. PMID:24732948

Optimal community structure for social contagions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Zhen; Wang, Wei; Li, Lixiang; Stanley, H. Eugene; Braunstein, Lidia A.

2018-05-01

Community structure is an important factor in the behavior of real-world networks because it strongly affects the stability and thus the phase transition order of the spreading dynamics. We here propose a reversible social contagion model of community networks that includes the factor of social reinforcement. In our model an individual adopts a social contagion when the number of received units of information exceeds its adoption threshold. We use mean-field approximation to describe our proposed model, and the results agree with numerical simulations. The numerical simulations and theoretical analyses both indicate that there is a first-order phase transition in the spreading dynamics, and that a hysteresis loop emerges in the system when there is a variety of initially adopted seeds. We find an optimal community structure that maximizes spreading dynamics. We also find a rich phase diagram with a triple point that separates the no-diffusion phase from the two diffusion phases.

Motivational Dynamics in Language Learning: Change, Stability, and Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waninge, Freerkien; Dörnyei, Zoltán; De Bot, Kees

2014-01-01

Motivation as a variable in L2 development is no longer seen as the stable individual difference factor it was once believed to be: Influenced by process-oriented models and principles, and especially by the growing understanding of how complex dynamic systems work, researchers have been focusing increasingly on the dynamic and changeable nature…

Use of multiple picosecond high-mass molecular dynamics simulations to predict crystallographic B-factors of folded globular proteins.

PubMed

Pang, Yuan-Ping

2016-09-01

Predicting crystallographic B-factors of a protein from a conventional molecular dynamics simulation is challenging, in part because the B-factors calculated through sampling the atomic positional fluctuations in a picosecond molecular dynamics simulation are unreliable, and the sampling of a longer simulation yields overly large root mean square deviations between calculated and experimental B-factors. This article reports improved B-factor prediction achieved by sampling the atomic positional fluctuations in multiple picosecond molecular dynamics simulations that use uniformly increased atomic masses by 100-fold to increase time resolution. Using the third immunoglobulin-binding domain of protein G, bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor, ubiquitin, and lysozyme as model systems, the B-factor root mean square deviations (mean ± standard error) of these proteins were 3.1 ± 0.2-9 ± 1 Å 2 for Cα and 7.3 ± 0.9-9.6 ± 0.2 Å 2 for Cγ, when the sampling was done for each of these proteins over 20 distinct, independent, and 50-picosecond high-mass molecular dynamics simulations with AMBER forcefield FF12MC or FF14SB. These results suggest that sampling the atomic positional fluctuations in multiple picosecond high-mass molecular dynamics simulations may be conducive to a priori prediction of crystallographic B-factors of a folded globular protein.

STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality Within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin

2015-05-01

The study contributes to human reliability analysis (HRA) by proposing a method that focuses more on human error causality within a sociotechnical system, illustrating its rationality and feasibility by using a case of the Minuteman (MM) III missile accident. Due to the complexity and dynamics within a sociotechnical system, previous analyses of accidents involving human and organizational factors clearly demonstrated that the methods using a sequential accident model are inadequate to analyze human error within a sociotechnical system. System-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) was used to develop a universal framework of human error causal analysis. To elaborate the causal relationships and demonstrate the dynamics of human error, system dynamics (SD) modeling was conducted based on the framework. A total of 41 contributing factors, categorized into four types of human error, were identified through the STAMP-based analysis. All factors are related to a broad view of sociotechnical systems, and more comprehensive than the causation presented in the accident investigation report issued officially. Recommendations regarding both technical and managerial improvement for a lower risk of the accident are proposed. The interests of an interdisciplinary approach provide complementary support between system safety and human factors. The integrated method based on STAMP and SD model contributes to HRA effectively. The proposed method will be beneficial to HRA, risk assessment, and control of the MM III operating process, as well as other sociotechnical systems. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Exploring Migratory Dynamics on HIV Transmission: The Case of Mexicans in New York City and Puebla, Mexico

PubMed Central

Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; McCarthy, Katharine; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel A.; de Lourdes Rosas López, Maria

2014-01-01

Migration and population movement are increasingly viewed as important factors associated with HIV transmission risk. With growing awareness of the potential impact of migration on HIV transmission, several perspectives have emerged that posit differing dynamics of risk. We considered available data on the role of migration on HIV transmission among Mexican migrants in New York City and Puebla, Mexico. Specifically, we examined 3 distinct models of migratory dynamics of HIV transmission—namely, the structural model, the local contextual model, and the interplay model. In doing so, we reframed current public health perspectives on the role of migration on HIV transmission. PMID:24825203

Time Factor in the Theory of Anthropogenic Risk Prediction in Complex Dynamic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostreikovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, Ye N.; Yurkov, N. K.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Grishko, A. K.

2018-01-01

The article overviews the anthropogenic risk models that take into consideration the development of different factors in time that influence the complex system. Three classes of mathematical models have been analyzed for the use in assessing the anthropogenic risk of complex dynamic systems. These models take into consideration time factor in determining the prospect of safety change of critical systems. The originality of the study is in the analysis of five time postulates in the theory of anthropogenic risk and the safety of highly important objects. It has to be stressed that the given postulates are still rarely used in practical assessment of equipment service life of critically important systems. That is why, the results of study presented in the article can be used in safety engineering and analysis of critically important complex technical systems.

Dynamic assessment of urban economy-environment-energy system using system dynamics model: A case study in Beijing.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Ning, Shuang

2018-07-01

Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculation and Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of Multilink Permanent Magnetic Actuator in Vacuum Circuit Breaker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yingyi; Yuan, Haiwen; Zhang, Qingjie; Chen, Degui; Yuan, Haibin

The dynamic characteristics are the key issues in the optimum design of a permanent magnetic actuator (PMA). A new approach to forecast the dynamic characteristics of the multilink PMA is proposed. By carrying out further developments of ADAMS and ANSOFT, a mathematic calculation model describing the coupling of mechanical movement, electric circuit and magnetic field considering eddy current effect, is constructed. With this model, the dynamic characteristics of the multilink PMA are calculated and compared with the experimental results. Factors that affect the opening time of the multilink PMA are analyzed with the model as well. The method is capable of providing a reference for the design of the PMA.

A Multivariate Dynamic Spatial Factor Model for Speciated Pollutants and Adverse Birth Outcomes

DOE PAGES

Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian J.; ...

2017-09-11

Evidence suggests that exposure to elevated concentrations of air pollution during pregnancy is associated with increased risks of birth defects and other adverse birth outcomes. While current regulations put limits on total PM2.5 concentrations, there are many speciated pollutants within this size class that likely have distinct effects on perinatal health. However, due to correlations between these speciated pollutants, it can be difficult to decipher their effects in a model for birth outcomes. To combat this difficulty, we develop a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model for speciated particulate matter using dynamic spatial factors. These spatial factors can then be interpolated tomore » the pregnant women’s homes to be used to model birth defects. The birth defect model allows the impact of pollutants to vary across different weeks of the pregnancy in order to identify susceptible periods. Here, the proposed methodology is illustrated using pollutant monitoring data from the Environmental Protection Agency and birth records from the National Birth Defect Prevention Study.« less

A Multivariate Dynamic Spatial Factor Model for Speciated Pollutants and Adverse Birth Outcomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian J.

Evidence suggests that exposure to elevated concentrations of air pollution during pregnancy is associated with increased risks of birth defects and other adverse birth outcomes. While current regulations put limits on total PM2.5 concentrations, there are many speciated pollutants within this size class that likely have distinct effects on perinatal health. However, due to correlations between these speciated pollutants, it can be difficult to decipher their effects in a model for birth outcomes. To combat this difficulty, we develop a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model for speciated particulate matter using dynamic spatial factors. These spatial factors can then be interpolated tomore » the pregnant women’s homes to be used to model birth defects. The birth defect model allows the impact of pollutants to vary across different weeks of the pregnancy in order to identify susceptible periods. Here, the proposed methodology is illustrated using pollutant monitoring data from the Environmental Protection Agency and birth records from the National Birth Defect Prevention Study.« less

Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, A. C. S.; Martins, S. G. F.; Zacarias, M. S.

2008-01-01

Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests’ population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coffeella, at different temperatures, considering experimental data relative to the pest. The age structure was inserted into the dynamics through sexual Penna Model. The results obtained, such as life expectancy, growth rate and annual generations’ number, in agreement to those in laboratory and field conditions, show that the simulation can be used as a forecast model for controlling L. coffeella.

Dynamic Characterization and Modeling of Potting Materials for Electronics Assemblies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Vasant; Lee, Gilbert; Santiago, Jaime

2015-06-01

Prediction of survivability of encapsulated electronic components subject to impact relies on accurate modeling. Both static and dynamic characterization of encapsulation material is needed to generate a robust material model. Current focus is on potting materials to mitigate high rate loading on impact. In this effort, encapsulation scheme consists of layers of polymeric material Sylgard 184 and Triggerbond Epoxy-20-3001. Experiments conducted for characterization of materials include conventional tension and compression tests, Hopkinson bar, dynamic material analyzer (DMA) and a non-conventional accelerometer based resonance tests for obtaining high frequency data. For an ideal material, data can be fitted to Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) model. A new temperature-time shift (TTS) macro was written to compare idealized temperature shift factor (WLF model) with experimental incremental shift factors. Deviations can be observed by comparison of experimental data with the model fit to determine the actual material behavior. Similarly, another macro written for obtaining Ogden model parameter from Hopkinson Bar tests indicates deviations from experimental high strain rate data. In this paper, experimental results for different materials used for mitigating impact, and ways to combine data from resonance, DMA and Hopkinson bar together with modeling refinements will be presented.

Scaling up complexity in host-pathogens interaction models. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Maíra

2015-12-01

Caused by micro-organisms that are pathogenic to the host, infectious diseases have caused debilitation and premature death to large portions of the human population, leading to serious social-economic concerns. The persistence and increase in the occurrence of infectious diseases as well the emergence or resurgence of vector-borne diseases are closely related with demographic factors such as the uncontrolled urbanization and remarkable population growth, political, social and economical changes, deforestation, development of resistance to insecticides and drugs and increased human travel. In recent years, mathematical modeling became an important tool for the understanding of infectious disease epidemiology and dynamics, addressing ideas about the components of host-pathogen interactions. Acting as a possible tool to understand, predict the spread of infectious diseases these models are also used to evaluate the introduction of intervention strategies like vector control and vaccination. Many scientific papers have been published recently on these topics, and most of the models developed try to incorporate factors focusing on several different aspects of the disease (and eventually biological aspects of the vector), which can imply rich dynamic behavior even in the most basic dynamical models. As one example to be cited, there is a minimalistic dengue model that has shown rich dynamic structures, with bifurcations (Hopf, pitchfork, torus and tangent bifurcations) up to chaotic attractors in unexpected parameter regions [1,2], which was able to describe the large fluctuations observed in empirical outbreak data [3,4].

A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions

PubMed Central

Homer, Jack; Evans, Elizabeth; Zielinski, Ann

2010-01-01

Planning programs for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a challenge to every community that wants to make the best use of its limited resources. Selecting programs that provide the greatest impact is difficult because of the complex set of causal pathways and delays that link risk factors to CVD. We describe a system dynamics simulation model developed for a county health department that incorporates and tracks the effects of those risk factors over time on both first-time and recurrent events. We also describe how the model was used to evaluate the potential impacts of various intervention strategies for reducing the county's CVD burden and present the results of those policy tests. PMID:20167899

Engineering model of the electric drives of separation device for simulation of automatic control systems of reactive power compensation by means of serially connected capacitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juromskiy, V. M.

2016-09-01

It is developed a mathematical model for an electric drive of high-speed separation device in terms of the modeling dynamic systems Simulink, MATLAB. The model is focused on the study of the automatic control systems of the power factor (Cosφ) of an actuator by compensating the reactive component of the total power by switching a capacitor bank in series with the actuator. The model is based on the methodology of the structural modeling of dynamic processes.

Equation-free mechanistic ecosystem forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling

PubMed Central

Ye, Hao; Beamish, Richard J.; Glaser, Sarah M.; Grant, Sue C. H.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Richards, Laura J.; Schnute, Jon T.; Sugihara, George

2015-01-01

It is well known that current equilibrium-based models fall short as predictive descriptions of natural ecosystems, and particularly of fisheries systems that exhibit nonlinear dynamics. For example, model parameters assumed to be fixed constants may actually vary in time, models may fit well to existing data but lack out-of-sample predictive skill, and key driving variables may be misidentified due to transient (mirage) correlations that are common in nonlinear systems. With these frailties, it is somewhat surprising that static equilibrium models continue to be widely used. Here, we examine empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) as an alternative to imposed model equations and that accommodates both nonequilibrium dynamics and nonlinearity. Using time series from nine stocks of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from the Fraser River system in British Columbia, Canada, we perform, for the the first time to our knowledge, real-data comparison of contemporary fisheries models with equivalent EDM formulations that explicitly use spawning stock and environmental variables to forecast recruitment. We find that EDM models produce more accurate and precise forecasts, and unlike extensions of the classic Ricker spawner–recruit equation, they show significant improvements when environmental factors are included. Our analysis demonstrates the strategic utility of EDM for incorporating environmental influences into fisheries forecasts and, more generally, for providing insight into how environmental factors can operate in forecast models, thus paving the way for equation-free mechanistic forecasting to be applied in management contexts. PMID:25733874

State-Space Modeling of Dynamic Psychological Processes via the Kalman Smoother Algorithm: Rationale, Finite Sample Properties, and Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Hairong; Ferrer, Emilio

2009-01-01

This article presents a state-space modeling (SSM) technique for fitting process factor analysis models directly to raw data. The Kalman smoother via the expectation-maximization algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood parameter estimates is used. To examine the finite sample properties of the estimates in SSM when common factors are involved, a…

Fractal attractors and singular invariant measures in two-sector growth models with random factor shares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Torre, Davide; Marsiglio, Simone; Mendivil, Franklin; Privileggi, Fabio

2018-05-01

We analyze a multi-sector growth model subject to random shocks affecting the two sector-specific production functions twofold: the evolution of both productivity and factor shares is the result of such exogenous shocks. We determine the optimal dynamics via Euler-Lagrange equations, and show how these dynamics can be described in terms of an iterated function system with probability. We also provide conditions that imply the singularity of the invariant measure associated with the fractal attractor. Numerical examples show how specific parameter configurations might generate distorted copies of the Barnsley's fern attractor.

Stirling System Modeling for Space Nuclear Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Edward J.; Johnson, Paul K.

2008-01-01

A dynamic model of a high-power Stirling convertor has been developed for space nuclear power systems modeling. The model is based on the Component Test Power Convertor (CTPC), a 12.5-kWe free-piston Stirling convertor. The model includes the fluid heat source, the Stirling convertor, output power, and heat rejection. The Stirling convertor model includes the Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass-spring damper systems, and the linear alternator. The model was validated against test data. Both nonlinear and linear versions of the model were developed. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models; one model of the Stirling cycle and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. Future possible uses of the Stirling system dynamic model are discussed. A pair of commercially available 1-kWe Stirling convertors is being purchased by NASA Glenn Research Center. The specifications of those convertors may eventually be incorporated into the dynamic model and analysis compared to the convertor test data. Subsequent potential testing could include integrating the convertors into a pumped liquid metal hot-end interface. This test would provide more data for comparison to the dynamic model analysis.

Structure and dynamics of zymogen human blood coagulation factor X.

PubMed

Venkateswarlu, Divi; Perera, Lalith; Darden, Tom; Pedersen, Lee G

2002-03-01

The solution structure and dynamics of the human coagulation factor X (FX) have been investigated to understand the key structural elements in the zymogenic form that participates in the activation process. The model was constructed based on the 2.3-A-resolution x-ray crystallographic structure of active-site inhibited human FXa (PDB:1XKA). The missing gamma-carboxyglutamic acid (GLA) and part of epidermal growth factor 1 (EGF1) domains of the light chain were modeled based on the template of GLA-EGF1 domains of the tissue factor (TF)-bound FVIIa structure (PDB:1DAN). The activation peptide and other missing segments of FX were introduced using homology modeling. The full calcium-bound model of FX was subjected to 6.2 ns of molecular dynamics simulation in aqueous medium using the AMBER6.0 package. We observed significant reorientation of the serine-protease (SP) domain upon activation leading to a compact multi-domain structure. The solution structure of zymogen appears to be in a well-extended conformation with the distance between the calcium ions in the GLA domain and the catalytic residues estimated to be approximately 95 A in contrast to approximately 83 A in the activated form. The latter is in close agreement with fluorescence studies on FXa. The S1-specificity residues near the catalytic triad show significant differences between the zymogen and activated structures.

Rotational dynamics of benzene and water in an ionic liquid explored via molecular dynamics simulations and NMR T1 measurements.

PubMed

Yasaka, Yoshiro; Klein, Michael L; Nakahara, Masaru; Matubayasi, Nobuyuki

2012-02-21

The rotational dynamics of benzene and water in the ionic liquid (IL) 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride are studied using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and NMR T(1) measurements. MD trajectories based on an effective potential are used to calculate the (2)H NMR relaxation time, T(1) via Fourier transform of the relevant rotational time correlation function, C(2R)(t). To compensate for the lack of polarization in the standard fixed-charge modeling of the IL, an effective ionic charge, which is smaller than the elementary charge is employed. The simulation results are in closest agreement with NMR experiments with respect to the temperature and Larmor frequency dependencies of T(1) when an effective charge of ±0.5e is used for the anion and the cation, respectively. The computed C(2R)(t) of both solutes shows a bi-modal nature, comprised of an initial non-diffusive ps relaxation plus a long-time ns tail extending to the diffusive regime. Due to the latter component, the solute dynamics is not under the motional narrowing condition with respect to the prevalent Larmor frequency. It is shown that the diffusive tail of the C(2R)(t) is most important to understand frequency and temperature dependencies of T(1) in ILs. On the other hand, the effect of the initial ps relaxation is an increase of T(1) by a constant factor. This is equivalent to an "effective" reduction of the quadrupolar coupling constant (QCC). Thus, in the NMR T(1) analysis, the rotational time correlation function can be modeled analytically in the form of aexp (-t/τ) (Lipari-Szabo model), where the constant a, the Lipari-Szabo factor, contains the integrated contribution of the short-time relaxation and τ represents the relaxation time of the exponential (diffusive) tail. The Debye model is a special case of the Lipari-Szabo model with a = 1, and turns out to be inappropriate to represent benzene and water dynamics in ILs since a is as small as 0.1. The use of the Debye model would result in an underestimation of the QCC by a factor of 2-3 as a compensation for the neglect of the Lipari-Szabo factor. © 2012 American Institute of Physics

Rotational dynamics of benzene and water in an ionic liquid explored via molecular dynamics simulations and NMR T1 measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasaka, Yoshiro; Klein, Michael L.; Nakahara, Masaru; Matubayasi, Nobuyuki

2012-02-01

The rotational dynamics of benzene and water in the ionic liquid (IL) 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride are studied using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and NMR T1 measurements. MD trajectories based on an effective potential are used to calculate the 2H NMR relaxation time, T1 via Fourier transform of the relevant rotational time correlation function, C2R(t). To compensate for the lack of polarization in the standard fixed-charge modeling of the IL, an effective ionic charge, which is smaller than the elementary charge is employed. The simulation results are in closest agreement with NMR experiments with respect to the temperature and Larmor frequency dependencies of T1 when an effective charge of ±0.5e is used for the anion and the cation, respectively. The computed C2R(t) of both solutes shows a bi-modal nature, comprised of an initial non-diffusive ps relaxation plus a long-time ns tail extending to the diffusive regime. Due to the latter component, the solute dynamics is not under the motional narrowing condition with respect to the prevalent Larmor frequency. It is shown that the diffusive tail of the C2R(t) is most important to understand frequency and temperature dependencies of T1 in ILs. On the other hand, the effect of the initial ps relaxation is an increase of T1 by a constant factor. This is equivalent to an "effective" reduction of the quadrupolar coupling constant (QCC). Thus, in the NMR T1 analysis, the rotational time correlation function can be modeled analytically in the form of aexp (-t/τ) (Lipari-Szabo model), where the constant a, the Lipari-Szabo factor, contains the integrated contribution of the short-time relaxation and τ represents the relaxation time of the exponential (diffusive) tail. The Debye model is a special case of the Lipari-Szabo model with a = 1, and turns out to be inappropriate to represent benzene and water dynamics in ILs since a is as small as 0.1. The use of the Debye model would result in an underestimation of the QCC by a factor of 2-3 as a compensation for the neglect of the Lipari-Szabo factor.

Analysis of the Assignment Scheduling Capability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) Simulation Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

dynamic programming approach known as a “rolling horizon” approach. This method accounts for state transitions within the simulation rather than modeling ... model is based on the framework developed for Dynamic Allocation of Fires and Sensors used to evaluate factors associated with networking assets in the...of UAVs required by all types of maneuver and support brigades. (Witsken, 2004) The Modeling , Virtual Environments, and Simulations Institute

Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

2015-04-01

Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten sampling time in order to follow the dynamic of residue and soil organic matter mineralization. Diversity, structure and composition of microbial communities have been characterized before incubation time. The dynamic of carbon fluxes through CO2 emissions has been modelled through a simple model. Using statistical tools, relations between parameters of the model and microbial diversity indexes and/or pedological characteristics have been developed and integrated to the model. First results show that global diversity has an impact on the models parameters. Moreover, larger fungi diversity seems to lead to larger parameters representing decomposition rates and/or carbon use efficiencies than bacterial diversity. Classically, pedological factors such as soil pH and texture must also be taken into account.

Frequencies and Flutter Speed Estimation for Damaged Aircraft Wing Using Scaled Equivalent Plate Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan

2010-01-01

Equivalent plate analysis is often used to replace the computationally expensive finite element analysis in initial design stages or in conceptual design of aircraft wing structures. The equivalent plate model can also be used to design a wind tunnel model to match the stiffness characteristics of the wing box of a full-scale aircraft wing model while satisfying strength-based requirements An equivalent plate analysis technique is presented to predict the static and dynamic response of an aircraft wing with or without damage. First, a geometric scale factor and a dynamic pressure scale factor are defined to relate the stiffness, load and deformation of the equivalent plate to the aircraft wing. A procedure using an optimization technique is presented to create scaled equivalent plate models from the full scale aircraft wing using geometric and dynamic pressure scale factors. The scaled models are constructed by matching the stiffness of the scaled equivalent plate with the scaled aircraft wing stiffness. It is demonstrated that the scaled equivalent plate model can be used to predict the deformation of the aircraft wing accurately. Once the full equivalent plate geometry is obtained, any other scaled equivalent plate geometry can be obtained using the geometric scale factor. Next, an average frequency scale factor is defined as the average ratio of the frequencies of the aircraft wing to the frequencies of the full-scaled equivalent plate. The average frequency scale factor combined with the geometric scale factor is used to predict the frequency response of the aircraft wing from the scaled equivalent plate analysis. A procedure is outlined to estimate the frequency response and the flutter speed of an aircraft wing from the equivalent plate analysis using the frequency scale factor and geometric scale factor. The equivalent plate analysis is demonstrated using an aircraft wing without damage and another with damage. Both of the problems show that the scaled equivalent plate analysis can be successfully used to predict the frequencies and flutter speed of a typical aircraft wing.

Ecohealth System Dynamic Model as a Planning Tool for the Reduction of Breeding Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Respati, T.; Raksanagara, A.; Djuhaeni, H.; Sofyan, A.; Shandriasti, A.

2017-03-01

Dengue is still one of major health problem in Indonesia. Dengue transmission is influenced by dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment and climate. The complexity of the disease coupled with limited resources necessitates different approach for prevention methods that include factors contribute to the transmission. One way to prevent the dengue transmission is by reducing the mosquito’s breeding sites. Four factors suspected to influence breeding sites are dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment, and weather condition. In order to have an effective program in reducing the breeding site it is needed to have a model which can predict existence of the breeding sites while the four factors under study are controlled. The objective of this study is to develop an Ecohealth model using system dynamic as a planning tool for the reduction of breeding sites to prevent dengue transmission with regard to dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment, and weather condition. The methodology is a mixed method study using sequential exploratory design. The study comprised of 3 stages: first a qualitative study to 14 respondents using in-depth interview and 6 respondents for focus group discussion. The results from the first stage was used to develop entomology and household survey questionnaires for second stage conducted in 2036 households across 12 sub districts in Bandung City. Ecohealth system dynamic model was developed using data from first and second stages. Analyses used are thematic analysis for qualitative data; spatial, generalized estimating equation (GEE) and structural equation modeling for quantitative data; also average mean error (AME) and average variance error (AVE) for dynamic system model validation. System dynamic model showed that the most effective approach to eliminate breeding places was by ensuring the availability of basic sanitation for all houses. Weather factors such as precipitation can be compensated with the eradication of breeding sites activities which is conducted as scheduled and at the same time for the whole areas. Conclusion of this study is that dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, and housing environment contributed to breeding places elimination influenced the existence of the breeding sites. The availability of basic sanitation and breeding places eradication program done timely and collectively are the most effective approach to eradicate breeding sites. Ecohealth dynamic system model can be used as a tool for the planning of breeding sites eradication program to prevent disease transmissions at city level.

Rail vehicle dynamic response to a nonlinear physical 'in-service' model of its secondary suspension hydraulic dampers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W. L.; Zhou, Z. R.; Yu, D. S.; Qin, Q. H.; Iwnicki, S.

2017-10-01

A full nonlinear physical 'in-service' model was built for a rail vehicle secondary suspension hydraulic damper with shim-pack-type valves. In the modelling process, a shim pack deflection theory with an equivalent-pressure correction factor was proposed, and a Finite Element Analysis (FEA) approach was applied. Bench test results validated the damper model over its full velocity range and thus also proved that the proposed shim pack deflection theory and the FEA-based parameter identification approach are effective. The validated full damper model was subsequently incorporated into a detailed vehicle dynamics simulation to study how its key in-service parameter variations influence the secondary-suspension-related vehicle system dynamics. The obtained nonlinear physical in-service damper model and the vehicle dynamic response characteristics in this study could be used in the product design optimization and nonlinear optimal specifications of high-speed rail hydraulic dampers.

Approximate probabilistic cellular automata for the dynamics of single-species populations under discrete logisticlike growth with and without weak Allee effects.

PubMed

Mendonça, J Ricardo G; Gevorgyan, Yeva

2017-05-01

We investigate one-dimensional elementary probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) whose dynamics in first-order mean-field approximation yields discrete logisticlike growth models for a single-species unstructured population with nonoverlapping generations. Beginning with a general six-parameter model, we find constraints on the transition probabilities of the PCA that guarantee that the ensuing approximations make sense in terms of population dynamics and classify the valid combinations thereof. Several possible models display a negative cubic term that can be interpreted as a weak Allee factor. We also investigate the conditions under which a one-parameter PCA derived from the more general six-parameter model can generate valid population growth dynamics. Numerical simulations illustrate the behavior of some of the PCA found.

Moving Contact Lines: Linking Molecular Dynamics and Continuum-Scale Modeling.

PubMed

Smith, Edward R; Theodorakis, Panagiotis E; Craster, Richard V; Matar, Omar K

2018-05-17

Despite decades of research, the modeling of moving contact lines has remained a formidable challenge in fluid dynamics whose resolution will impact numerous industrial, biological, and daily life applications. On the one hand, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation has the ability to provide unique insight into the microscopic details that determine the dynamic behavior of the contact line, which is not possible with either continuum-scale simulations or experiments. On the other hand, continuum-based models provide a link to the macroscopic description of the system. In this Feature Article, we explore the complex range of physical factors, including the presence of surfactants, which governs the contact line motion through MD simulations. We also discuss links between continuum- and molecular-scale modeling and highlight the opportunities for future developments in this area.

Dynamic Model for Life History of Scyphozoa

PubMed Central

Xie, Congbo; Fan, Meng; Wang, Xin; Chen, Ming

2015-01-01

A two-state life history model governed by ODEs is formulated to elucidate the population dynamics of jellyfish and to illuminate the triggering mechanism of its blooms. The polyp-medusa model admits trichotomous global dynamic scenarios: extinction, polyps survival only, and both survival. The population dynamics sensitively depend on several biotic and abiotic limiting factors such as substrate, temperature, and predation. The combination of temperature increase, substrate expansion, and predator diminishment acts synergistically to create a habitat that is more favorable for jellyfishes. Reducing artificial marine constructions, aiding predator populations, and directly controlling the jellyfish population would help to manage the jellyfish blooms. The theoretical analyses and numerical experiments yield several insights into the nature underlying the model and shed some new light on the general control strategy for jellyfish. PMID:26114642

Dynamic Model for Life History of Scyphozoa.

PubMed

Xie, Congbo; Fan, Meng; Wang, Xin; Chen, Ming

2015-01-01

A two-state life history model governed by ODEs is formulated to elucidate the population dynamics of jellyfish and to illuminate the triggering mechanism of its blooms. The polyp-medusa model admits trichotomous global dynamic scenarios: extinction, polyps survival only, and both survival. The population dynamics sensitively depend on several biotic and abiotic limiting factors such as substrate, temperature, and predation. The combination of temperature increase, substrate expansion, and predator diminishment acts synergistically to create a habitat that is more favorable for jellyfishes. Reducing artificial marine constructions, aiding predator populations, and directly controlling the jellyfish population would help to manage the jellyfish blooms. The theoretical analyses and numerical experiments yield several insights into the nature underlying the model and shed some new light on the general control strategy for jellyfish.

Dynamics of f(R) gravity models and asymmetry of time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Murli Manohar; Yadav, Bal Krishna

We solve the field equations of modified gravity for f(R) model in metric formalism. Further, we obtain the fixed points of the dynamical system in phase-space analysis of f(R) models, both with and without the effects of radiation. The stability of these points is studied against the perturbations in a smooth spatial background by applying the conditions on the eigenvalues of the matrix obtained in the linearized first-order differential equations. Following this, these fixed points are used for analyzing the dynamics of the system during the radiation, matter and acceleration-dominated phases of the universe. Certain linear and quadratic forms of f(R) are determined from the geometrical and physical considerations and the behavior of the scale factor is found for those forms. Further, we also determine the Hubble parameter H(t), the Ricci scalar R and the scale factor a(t) for these cosmic phases. We show the emergence of an asymmetry of time from the dynamics of the scalar field exclusively owing to the f(R) gravity in the Einstein frame that may lead to an arrow of time at a classical level.

Dynamical analysis of uterine cell electrical activity model.

PubMed

Rihana, S; Santos, J; Mondie, S; Marque, C

2006-01-01

The uterus is a physiological system consisting of a large number of interacting smooth muscle cells. The uterine excitability changes remarkably with time, generally quiescent during pregnancy, the uterus exhibits forceful synchronized contractions at term leading to fetus expulsion. These changes characterize thus a dynamical system susceptible of being studied through formal mathematical tools. Multiple physiological factors are involved in the regulation process of this complex system. Our aim is to relate the physiological factors to the uterine cell dynamic behaviors. Taking into account a previous work presented, in which the electrical activity of a uterine cell is described by a set of ordinary differential equations, we analyze the impact of physiological parameters on the response of the model, and identify the main subsystems generating the complex uterine electrical activity, with respect to physiological data.

Dynamic Failure of Materials: A Review

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

stress states . It is currently unknown how well the current trend of multi-scale modeling will impact dynamic failure; however... stress can exist in the necked region after a neck is formed due to the nonuniformity of the necked region. This triaxial stress state is extremely...7 into 8, the effective stress intensity factor (Keff) can be determined in terms of the stress intensity factor (K). Because the onset of

Dynamical Cognitive Models of Social Issues in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitina, Olga; Abraham, Fred; Petrenko, Victor

We examine and model dynamics in three areas of social cognition: (1) political transformations within Russia, (2) evaluation of political trends in other countries by Russians, and (3) evaluation of Russian stereotypes concerning women. We try to represent consciousness as vectorfields and trajectories in a cognitive state space. We use psychosemantic techniques that allow definition of the state space and the systematic construction of these vectorfields and trajectories and their portrait from research data. Then we construct models to fit them, using multiple regression methods to obtain linear differential equations. These dynamical models of social cognition fit the data quite well. (1) The political transformations were modeled by a spiral repellor in a two-dimensional space of a democratic-totalitarian factor and social depression-optimism factor. (2) The evaluation of alien political trends included a flow away from a saddle toward more stable and moderate political regimes in a 2D space, of democratic-totalitarian and unstable-stable cognitive dimensions. (3) The gender study showed expectations (attractors) for more liberated, emancipated roles for women in the future.

A Global Picture of the Gamma-Ricker Map: A Flexible Discrete-Time Model with Factors of Positive and Negative Density Dependence.

PubMed

Liz, Eduardo

2018-02-01

The gamma-Ricker model is one of the more flexible and general discrete-time population models. It is defined on the basis of the Ricker model, introducing an additional parameter [Formula: see text]. For some values of this parameter ([Formula: see text], population is overcompensatory, and the introduction of an additional parameter gives more flexibility to fit the stock-recruitment curve to field data. For other parameter values ([Formula: see text]), the gamma-Ricker model represents populations whose per-capita growth rate combines both negative density dependence and positive density dependence. The former can lead to overcompensation and dynamic instability, and the latter can lead to a strong Allee effect. We study the impact of the cooperation factor in the dynamics and provide rigorous conditions under which increasing the Allee effect strength stabilizes or destabilizes population dynamics, promotes or prevents population extinction, and increases or decreases population size. Our theoretical results also include new global stability criteria and a description of the possible bifurcations.

Synchronicity in predictive modelling: a new view of data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, G. S.; Tribbia, J. J.; Weiss, J. B.

2006-11-01

The problem of data assimilation can be viewed as one of synchronizing two dynamical systems, one representing "truth" and the other representing "model", with a unidirectional flow of information between the two. Synchronization of truth and model defines a general view of data assimilation, as machine perception, that is reminiscent of the Jung-Pauli notion of synchronicity between matter and mind. The dynamical systems paradigm of the synchronization of a pair of loosely coupled chaotic systems is expected to be useful because quasi-2D geophysical fluid models have been shown to synchronize when only medium-scale modes are coupled. The synchronization approach is equivalent to standard approaches based on least-squares optimization, including Kalman filtering, except in highly non-linear regions of state space where observational noise links regimes with qualitatively different dynamics. The synchronization approach is used to calculate covariance inflation factors from parameters describing the bimodality of a one-dimensional system. The factors agree in overall magnitude with those used in operational practice on an ad hoc basis. The calculation is robust against the introduction of stochastic model error arising from unresolved scales.

Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of stream total phosphate concentration by soft computing techniques.

PubMed

Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Yu-Hsuan

2016-08-15

This study attempts to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of total phosphate (TP) concentrations along a river for effective hydro-environmental management. We propose a systematical modeling scheme (SMS), which is an ingenious modeling process equipped with a dynamic neural network and three refined statistical methods, for reliably predicting the TP concentrations along a river simultaneously. Two different types of artificial neural network (BPNN-static neural network; NARX network-dynamic neural network) are constructed in modeling the dynamic system. The Dahan River in Taiwan is used as a study case, where ten-year seasonal water quality data collected at seven monitoring stations along the river are used for model training and validation. Results demonstrate that the NARX network can suitably capture the important dynamic features and remarkably outperforms the BPNN model, and the SMS can effectively identify key input factors, suitably overcome data scarcity, significantly increase model reliability, satisfactorily estimate site-specific TP concentration at seven monitoring stations simultaneously, and adequately reconstruct seasonal TP data into a monthly scale. The proposed SMS can reliably model the dynamic spatio-temporal water pollution variation in a river system for missing, hazardous or costly data of interest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-scale genetic dynamic modelling I : an algorithm to compute generators.

PubMed

Kirkilionis, Markus; Janus, Ulrich; Sbano, Luca

2011-09-01

We present a new approach or framework to model dynamic regulatory genetic activity. The framework is using a multi-scale analysis based upon generic assumptions on the relative time scales attached to the different transitions of molecular states defining the genetic system. At micro-level such systems are regulated by the interaction of two kinds of molecular players: macro-molecules like DNA or polymerases, and smaller molecules acting as transcription factors. The proposed genetic model then represents the larger less abundant molecules with a finite discrete state space, for example describing different conformations of these molecules. This is in contrast to the representations of the transcription factors which are-like in classical reaction kinetics-represented by their particle number only. We illustrate the method by considering the genetic activity associated to certain configurations of interacting genes that are fundamental to modelling (synthetic) genetic clocks. A largely unknown question is how different molecular details incorporated via this more realistic modelling approach lead to different macroscopic regulatory genetic models which dynamical behaviour might-in general-be different for different model choices. The theory will be applied to a real synthetic clock in a second accompanying article (Kirkilioniset al., Theory Biosci, 2011).

A comparative study on dynamic stiffness in typical finite element model and multi-body model of C6-C7 cervical spine segment.

PubMed

Wang, Yawei; Wang, Lizhen; Du, Chengfei; Mo, Zhongjun; Fan, Yubo

2016-06-01

In contrast to numerous researches on static or quasi-static stiffness of cervical spine segments, very few investigations on their dynamic stiffness were published. Currently, scale factors and estimated coefficients were usually used in multi-body models for including viscoelastic properties and damping effects, meanwhile viscoelastic properties of some tissues were unavailable for establishing finite element models. Because dynamic stiffness of cervical spine segments in these models were difficult to validate because of lacking in experimental data, we tried to gain some insights on current modeling methods through studying dynamic stiffness differences between these models. A finite element model and a multi-body model of C6-C7 segment were developed through using available material data and typical modeling technologies. These two models were validated with quasi-static response data of the C6-C7 cervical spine segment. Dynamic stiffness differences were investigated through controlling motions of C6 vertebrae at different rates and then comparing their reaction forces or moments. Validation results showed that both the finite element model and the multi-body model could generate reasonable responses under quasi-static loads, but the finite element segment model exhibited more nonlinear characters. Dynamic response investigations indicated that dynamic stiffness of this finite element model might be underestimated because of the absence of dynamic stiffen effect and damping effects of annulus fibrous, while representation of these effects also need to be improved in current multi-body model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Simonovic, S. P.

2002-09-01

This study uses a system dynamics approach to explore hydrological processes in the geographic locations where the main contribution to flooding is coming from the snowmelt. Temperature is identified as a critical factor that affects watershed hydrological processes. Based on the dynamic processes of the hydrologic cycle occurring in a watershed, the feedback relationships linking the watershed structure, as well as the climate factors, to the streamflow generation were identified prior to the development of a system dynamics model. The model is used to simulate flood patterns generated by snowmelt under temperature change in the spring. Model structure captures a vertical water balance using five tanks representing snow, interception, surface, subsurface and groundwater storage. Calibration and verification results show that temperature change and snowmelt play a key role in flood generation. Results indicate that simulated values match observed data very well. The goodness-of-fit between simulated and observed peak flow data is measured using coefficient of efficiency, coefficient of determination and square of the residual mass curve coefficient. For the Assiniboine River all three measures were in the interval between 0·92 and 0·96 and for the Red River between 0·89 and 0·97. The model is capable of capturing the essential dynamics of streamflow formation. Model input requires a set of initial values for all state variables and the time series of daily temperature and precipitation information. Data from the Red River Basin, shared by Canada and the USA, are used in the model development and testing.

Correlated phonons and the Tc-dependent dynamical phonon anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakioğlu, T.; Türeci, H.

1997-11-01

Anomalously large low-temperature phonon anharmonicities can lead to static as well as dynamical changes in the low-temperature properties of the electron-phonon system. In this work, we focus our attention on the dynamically generated low-temperature correlations in an interacting electron-phonon system using a self-consistent dynamical approach in the intermediate coupling range. In the context of the model, the polaron correlations are produced by the charge-density fluctuations which are generated dynamically by the electron-phonon coupling. Conversely, the latter is influenced in the presence of the former. The purpose of this work is to examine the dynamics of this dual mechanism between the two using the illustrative Fröhlich model. In particular, the influence of the low-temperature phonon dynamics on the superconducting properties in the intermediate coupling range is investigated. The influence on the Holstein reduction factor as well as the enhancement in the zero-point fluctuations and in the electron-phonon coupling are calculated numerically. We also examine these effects in the presence of superconductivity. Within this model, the contribution of the electron-phonon interaction as one of the important elements in the mechanisms of superconductivity can reach values as high as 15-20% of the characteristic scale of the lattice vibrational energy. The second motivation of this work is to understand the nature of the Tc-dependent temperature anomalies observed in the Debye-Waller factor, dynamical pair correlations, and average atomic vibrational energies for a number of high-temperature superconductors. In our approach we do not claim nor believe that the electron-phonon interaction is the primary mechanism leading to high-temperature superconductivity. Nevertheless, our calculations suggest that the dynamically induced low-temperature phonon correlation model can account for these anomalies and illustrates their possible common origin. Finally, the relevance of incorporating these low-temperature effects into more realistic models of high-temperature superconductivity including both the charge and spin degrees and other similar ideas existing in the literature are discussed.

A Dynamic Differentiation Framework for Talent Enhancement: Findings from Syntheses and Teachers' Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Susen

2015-01-01

Differentiating curriculum and pedagogy is a dynamic process that is dependent on the interrelationship between intrapersonal and environmental factors that can support the unique educational needs of gifted students. A Model of Dynamic Differentiation (MoDD) was developed from a larger study based on the ecological systems theory, an in-depth…

Studies on kinetics of water quality factors to establish water transparency model in Neijiang River, China.

PubMed

Li, Ronghui; Pan, Wei; Guo, Jinchuan; Pang, Yong; Wu, Jianqiang; Li, Yiping; Pan, Baozhu; Ji, Yong; Ding, Ling

2014-05-01

The basis for submerged plant restoration in surface water is to research the complicated dynamic mechanism of water transparency. In this paper, through the impact factor analysis of water transparency, the suspended sediment, dissolved organic matter, algae were determined as three main impactfactors for water transparency of Neijiang River in Eastern China. And the multiple regression equation of water transparency and sediment concentration, permanganate index, chlorophyll-a concentration was developed. Considering the complicated transport and transformation of suspended sediment, dissolved organic matter and algae, numerical model of them were developed respectively for simulating the dynamic process. Water transparency numerical model was finally developed by coupling the sediment, water quality, and algae model. These results showed that suspended sediment was a key factor influencing water transparency of Neijiang River, the influence of water quality indicated by chemical oxygen demand and algal concentration indicated by chlorophyll a were indeterminate when their concentrations were lower, the influence was more obvious when high concentrations are available, such three factors showed direct influence on water transparency.

A Dynamical Systems Model for Understanding Behavioral Interventions for Weight Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro-Barrientos, J.-Emeterio; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.

We propose a dynamical systems model that captures the daily fluctuations of human weight change, incorporating both physiological and psychological factors. The model consists of an energy balance integrated with a mechanistic behavioral model inspired by the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB); the latter describes how important variables in a behavioral intervention can influence healthy eating habits and increased physical activity over time. The model can be used to inform behavioral scientists in the design of optimized interventions for weight loss and body composition change.

Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2016-05-01

The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

Dynamics of the Glycophorin A Dimer in Membranes of Native-Like Composition Uncovered by Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Flinner, Nadine; Schleiff, Enrico

2015-01-01

Membranes are central for cells as borders to the environment or intracellular organelle definition. They are composed of and harbor different molecules like various lipid species and sterols, and they are generally crowded with proteins. The membrane system is very dynamic and components show lateral, rotational and translational diffusion. The consequence of the latter is that phase separation can occur in membranes in vivo and in vitro. It was documented that molecular dynamics simulations of an idealized plasma membrane model result in formation of membrane areas where either saturated lipids and cholesterol (liquid-ordered character, Lo) or unsaturated lipids (liquid-disordered character, Ld) were enriched. Furthermore, current discussions favor the idea that proteins are sorted into the liquid-disordered phase of model membranes, but experimental support for the behavior of isolated proteins in native membranes is sparse. To gain insight into the protein behavior we built a model of the red blood cell membrane with integrated glycophorin A dimer. The sorting and the dynamics of the dimer were subsequently explored by coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. In addition, we inspected the impact of lipid head groups and the presence of cholesterol within the membrane on the dynamics of the dimer within the membrane. We observed that cholesterol is important for the formation of membrane areas with Lo and Ld character. Moreover, it is an important factor for the reproduction of the dynamic behavior of the protein found in its native environment. The protein dimer was exclusively sorted into the domain of Ld character in the model red blood cell plasma membrane. Therefore, we present structural information on the glycophorin A dimer distribution in the plasma membrane in the absence of other factors like e.g. lipid anchors in a coarse grain resolution.

Dynamic patterns of overexploitation in fisheries.

PubMed

Perissi, Ilaria; Bardi, Ugo; El Asmar, Toufic; Lavacchi, Alessandro

2017-09-10

Understanding overfishing and regulating fishing quotas is a major global challenge for the 21st Century both in terms of providing food for humankind and to preserve the oceans' ecosystems. However, fishing is a complex economic activity, affected not just by overfishing but also by such factors as pollution, technology, financial factors and more. For this reason, it is often difficult to state with complete certainty that overfishing is the cause of the decline of a fishery. In this study, we developed a simple dynamic model specifically designed to isolate and to study the role of depletion on production. The model is based on the well-known Lotka-Volterra model, or Prey-Predator mechanism, assuming that the fish stock and the fishing industry are coupled variables that dynamically affect each other. In the model, the fishing industry acts as the "predator" and the fish stock as the "prey". If the model can fit historical data, in particular relative to the productive decline of specific fisheries, then we have a strong indication that the decline of the fish stock is driving the decline of the fishery production. The model doesn't pretend to be a general description of the fishing industry in all its varied forms; however, the data reported here show that the model can describe several historical cases of fisheries whose production decreased and collapsed, indicating that the overexploitation of the fish stocks is an important factor in the decline of fisheries.

Development and Application of a Stakeholder Assisted Dynamic Model to Facilitate Socio Hydrological Groundwater Management on Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baig, A. I.; Adamowski, J. F.; Malard, J. J.; Peng, G.

2017-12-01

Groundwater resource, especially in canal downstream areas are under direct threat due to over extraction by farming community. The resource is easily exploitable and no regulatory policies are enforced effectively in the region. Therefore, there is an urgent need to manage the resource judiciously through policy implementation and stakeholder engagement. In developing countries such as Pakistan, effective management solutions need consideration of some addition factors such as small land holdings, the poor economic status of farmers, and limited modeling and mathematical skills. This presentation will discuss development and application of a comprehensive but simple stakeholder assisted dynamic model to address such challenges. Two major components of the dynamic model were: (i) a system dynamics model that describes socio-economic factors such as market values; and ii) a physically based model that simulates the salt balance in the root zone with conjunctive use of canal and tube well irrigation water. Stakeholder proposed policy scenarios such as canal lining, government-sponsored tubewell installation schemes were tested and optimized through economic and environmental tradeoff criteria. After 20 years of simulation, government subsidies on tubewells appear as a short term policy that resulted 37% increase in water availability with 12% increase in farmer income. However, it showed detrimental effects on groundwater sustainability in long terms, with 10% drop in groundwater levels.

Underlying mechanisms leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transition are unchanged under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Kyung-Sook; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2018-05-01

El Niño's transitions play critical roles in modulating severe weather and climate events. Therefore, understanding the dynamic factors leading to El Niño's transitions and its future projection is a great challenge in predicting the diverse socioeconomic influences of El Niño over the globe. This study focuses on two dynamic factors controlling the El Niño-to-La Niña transition from the present climate and to future climate, using the observation, the historical and the RCP8.5 simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison phase 5 climate models. The first is the inter-basin coupling between the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific through the subtropical high variability. The second is the enhanced sensitivity between sea surface temperature and a deep tropical convection in the central tropical Pacific during the El Niño's developing phase. We show that the dynamic factors leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transition in the present climate are unchanged in spite of the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. We argue that the two dynamic factors are strongly constrained by the climatological precipitation distribution over the central tropical Pacific and western North Pacific as little changed from the present climate to future climate. This implies that two dynamical processes leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transitions in the present climate will also play a robust role in global warming.

Forest canopy growth dynamic modeling based on remote sensing prodcuts and meteorological data in Daxing'anling of Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiaoli; Song, Jinling; Wang, Jindi; Xiao, Zhiqiang

2014-11-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important biophysical variable for vegetation. Compared with vegetation indexes like NDVI and EVI, LAI is more capable of monitoring forest canopy growth quantitatively. GLASS LAI is a spatially complete and temporally continuous product derived from AVHRR and MODIS reflectance data. In this paper, we present the approach to build dynamic LAI growth models for young and mature Larix gmelinii forest in north Daxing'anling in Inner Mongolia of China using the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) model and Double Logistic (D-L) model respectively, based on the time series extracted from multi-temporal GLASS LAI data. Meanwhile we used the dynamic threshold method to attract the key phenological phases of Larix gmelinii forest from the simulated time series. Then, through the relationship analysis between phenological phases and the meteorological factors, we found that the annual peak LAI and the annual maximum temperature have a good correlation coefficient. The results indicate this forest canopy growth dynamic model to be very effective in predicting forest canopy LAI growth and extracting forest canopy LAI growth dynamic.

Dynamic calibration approach for determining catechins and gallic acid in green tea using LC-ESI/MS.

PubMed

Bedner, Mary; Duewer, David L

2011-08-15

Catechins and gallic acid are antioxidant constituents of Camellia sinensis, or green tea. Liquid chromatography with both ultraviolet (UV) absorbance and electrospray ionization mass spectrometric (ESI/MS) detection was used to determine catechins and gallic acid in three green tea matrix materials that are commonly used as dietary supplements. The results from both detection modes were evaluated with 14 quantitation models, all of which were based on the analyte response relative to an internal standard. Half of the models were static, where quantitation was achieved with calibration factors that were constant over an analysis set. The other half were dynamic, with calibration factors calculated from interpolated response factor data at each time a sample was injected to correct for potential variations in analyte response over time. For all analytes, the relatively nonselective UV responses were found to be very stable over time and independent of the calibrant concentration; comparable results with low variability were obtained regardless of the quantitation model used. Conversely, the highly selective MS responses were found to vary both with time and as a function of the calibrant concentration. A dynamic quantitation model based on polynomial data-fitting was used to reduce the variability in the quantitative results using the MS data.

The topographical model of multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Cook, Karin; De Nino, Scott; Fletcher, Madhuri

2016-01-01

Relapses and progression contribute to multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course, but neither the relationship between them nor the spectrum of clinical heterogeneity has been fully characterized. A hypothesis-driven, biologically informed model could build on the clinical phenotypes to encompass the dynamic admixture of factors underlying MS disease course. In this medical hypothesis, we put forth a dynamic model of MS disease course that incorporates localization and other drivers of disability to propose a clinical manifestation framework that visualizes MS in a clinically individualized way. The topographical model encapsulates 5 factors (localization of relapses and causative lesions; relapse frequency, severity, and recovery; and progression rate), visualized utilizing dynamic 3-dimensional renderings. The central hypothesis is that, like symptom recrudescence in Uhthoff phenomenon and pseudoexacerbations, progression clinically recapitulates prior relapse symptoms and unmasks previously silent lesions, incrementally revealing underlying lesion topography. The model uses real-time simulation software to depict disease course archetypes and illuminate several well-described but poorly reconciled phenomena including the clinical/MRI paradox and prognostic significance of lesion location and burden on disease outcomes. Utilization of this model could allow for earlier and more clinically precise identification of progressive MS and predictive implications can be empirically tested. PMID:27648465

Forecast of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome incidence with meteorological factors.

PubMed

Sun, Ji-Min; Lu, Liang; Liu, Ke-Ke; Yang, Jun; Wu, Hai-Xia; Liu, Qi-Yong

2018-06-01

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is emerging and some studies reported that SFTS incidence was associated with meteorological factors, while no report on SFTS forecast models was reported up to date. In this study, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). The dataset from 2011 to 2015 were used for model construction and the dataset in 2016 were used for external validity assessment. All the three models fitted the SFTS cases reasonably well during the training process and forecast process, while the NBM model forecasted better than other two models. Moreover, we demonstrated that temperature and relative humidity played key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of SFTS occurrence. Our study contributes to better understanding of SFTS dynamics and provides predictive tools for the control and prevention of SFTS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aeroelastic modeling for the FIT team F/A-18 simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeiler, Thomas A.; Wieseman, Carol D.

1989-01-01

Some details of the aeroelastic modeling of the F/A-18 aircraft done for the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team's research in integrated dynamics modeling and how these are combined with the FIT team's integrated dynamics model are described. Also described are mean axis corrections to elastic modes, the addition of nonlinear inertial coupling terms into the equations of motion, and the calculation of internal loads time histories using the integrated dynamics model in a batch simulation program. A video tape made of a loads time history animation was included as a part of the oral presentation. Also discussed is work done in one of the areas of unsteady aerodynamic modeling identified as needing improvement, specifically, in correction factor methodologies for improving the accuracy of stability derivatives calculated with a doublet lattice code.

Identification of the numerical model of FEM in reference to measurements in situ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jukowski, Michał; Bec, Jarosław; Błazik-Borowa, Ewa

2018-01-01

The paper deals with the verification of various numerical models in relation to the pilot-phase measurements of a rail bridge subjected to dynamic loading. Three types of FEM models were elaborated for this purpose. Static, modal and dynamic analyses were performed. The study consisted of measuring the acceleration values of the structural components of the object at the moment of the train passing. Based on this, FFT analysis was performed, the main natural frequencies of the bridge were determined, the structural damping ratio and the dynamic amplification factor (DAF) were calculated and compared with the standard values. Calculations were made using Autodesk Simulation Multiphysics (Algor).

Constructing food choice decisions.

PubMed

Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

2009-12-01

Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

Longitudinal Study of a Dual-Factor Model of Mental Health in Chinese Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiong, Junmei; Qin, Yi; Gao, Miaomiao; Hai, Man

2017-01-01

By incorporating psychopathology and subjective well-being (SWB), the dual-factor model of mental health (DFM) can comprehensively measure psychological health. We examined the utility of the DFM among 1,293 Chinese adolescents (Grades 7-12). Furthermore, we examined the dynamics of mental health group membership via a two-wave longitudinal study…

Finite-temperature spin dynamics in a perturbed quantum critical Ising chain with an E₈ symmetry.

PubMed

Wu, Jianda; Kormos, Márton; Si, Qimiao

2014-12-12

A spectrum exhibiting E₈ symmetry is expected to arise when a small longitudinal field is introduced in the transverse-field Ising chain at its quantum critical point. Evidence for this spectrum has recently come from neutron scattering measurements in cobalt niobate, a quasi-one-dimensional Ising ferromagnet. Unlike its zero-temperature counterpart, the finite-temperature dynamics of the model has not yet been determined. We study the dynamical spin structure factor of the model at low frequencies and nonzero temperatures, using the form factor method. Its frequency dependence is singular, but differs from the diffusion form. The temperature dependence of the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation rate has an activated form, whose prefactor we also determine. We propose NMR experiments as a means to further test the applicability of the E₈ description for CoNb₂O₆.

Coupled socioeconomic-crop modelling for the participatory local analysis of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers in Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Adamowski, J. F.; Wang, L. Y.; Rojas, M.; Carrera, J.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

The modelling of the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires the inclusion of socio-economic factors. However, while cropping models and economic models of agricultural systems are common, dynamically coupled socio-economic-biophysical models have not received as much success. A promising methodology for modelling the socioeconomic aspects of coupled natural-human systems is participatory system dynamics modelling, in which stakeholders develop mental maps of the socio-economic system that are then turned into quantified simulation models. This methodology has been successful in the water resources management field. However, while the stocks and flows of water resources have also been represented within the system dynamics modelling framework and thus coupled to the socioeconomic portion of the model, cropping models are ill-suited for such reformulation. In addition, most of these system dynamics models were developed without stakeholder input, limiting the scope for the adoption and implementation of their results. We therefore propose a new methodology for the analysis of climate change variability on agroecosystems which uses dynamically coupled system dynamics (socio-economic) and biophysical (cropping) models to represent both physical and socioeconomic aspects of the agricultural system, using two case studies (intensive market-based agricultural development versus subsistence crop-based development) from rural Guatemala. The system dynamics model component is developed with relevant governmental and NGO stakeholders from rural and agricultural development in the case study regions and includes such processes as education, poverty and food security. Common variables with the cropping models (yield and agricultural management choices) are then used to dynamically couple the two models together, allowing for the analysis of the agroeconomic system's response to and resilience against various climatic and socioeconomic shocks.

On DSS Implementation in the Dynamic Model of the Digital Oil field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korovin, Iakov S.; Khisamutdinov, Maksim V.; Kalyaev, Anatoly I.

2018-02-01

Decision support systems (DSS), especially based on the artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are been widely applied in different domains nowadays. In the paper we depict an approach of implementing DSS in to Digital Oil Field (DOF) dynamic model structure in order to reduce the human factor influence, considering the automation of all production processes to be the DOF model clue element. As the basic tool of data handling we propose the hybrid application on artificial neural networks and evolutional algorithms.

System dynamics model of taxi management in metropolises: Economic and environmental implications for Beijing.

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Zhang, Kai; Chen, Junhua; Wang, Zhifeng; Li, Guijun; Yang, Yuqi

2018-05-01

Taxis are an important component of urban passenger transport. Research on the daily dispatching of taxis and the utility of governmental management is important for the improvement of passenger travel, taxi driver income and environmental impacts. However, urban taxi management is a complex and dynamic system that is affected by many factors, and positive/negative feedback relationships and nonlinear interactions exist between each subsystem and variable. Therefore, conventional research methods can hardly depict its characteristics comprehensively. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a system dynamics model of urban taxi management, in which the empty-loaded rate and total demand are selected as key factors affecting taxi dispatching, and the impacts of taxi fares on driver income and travel demand are taken into account. After the validation of the model, taxi operations data derived from a prior analysis of origin-destination data of Beijing taxis are used as input for the model to simulate the taxi market in Beijing. Finally, economic and environmental implications are provided for the government to optimise policies on taxi management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An analytic modeling and system identification study of rotor/fuselage dynamics at hover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Steven W.; Curtiss, H. C., Jr.

1993-01-01

A combination of analytic modeling and system identification methods have been used to develop an improved dynamic model describing the response of articulated rotor helicopters to control inputs. A high-order linearized model of coupled rotor/body dynamics including flap and lag degrees of freedom and inflow dynamics with literal coefficients is compared to flight test data from single rotor helicopters in the near hover trim condition. The identification problem was formulated using the maximum likelihood function in the time domain. The dynamic model with literal coefficients was used to generate the model states, and the model was parametrized in terms of physical constants of the aircraft rather than the stability derivatives resulting in a significant reduction in the number of quantities to be identified. The likelihood function was optimized using the genetic algorithm approach. This method proved highly effective in producing an estimated model from flight test data which included coupled fuselage/rotor dynamics. Using this approach it has been shown that blade flexibility is a significant contributing factor to the discrepancies between theory and experiment shown in previous studies. Addition of flexible modes, properly incorporating the constraint due to the lag dampers, results in excellent agreement between flight test and theory, especially in the high frequency range.

An analytic modeling and system identification study of rotor/fuselage dynamics at hover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Steven W.; Curtiss, H. C., Jr.

1993-01-01

A combination of analytic modeling and system identification methods have been used to develop an improved dynamic model describing the response of articulated rotor helicopters to control inputs. A high-order linearized model of coupled rotor/body dynamics including flap and lag degrees of freedom and inflow dynamics with literal coefficients is compared to flight test data from single rotor helicopters in the near hover trim condition. The identification problem was formulated using the maximum likelihood function in the time domain. The dynamic model with literal coefficients was used to generate the model states, and the model was parametrized in terms of physical constants of the aircraft rather than the stability derivatives, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of quantities to be identified. The likelihood function was optimized using the genetic algorithm approach. This method proved highly effective in producing an estimated model from flight test data which included coupled fuselage/rotor dynamics. Using this approach it has been shown that blade flexibility is a significant contributing factor to the discrepancies between theory and experiment shown in previous studies. Addition of flexible modes, properly incorporating the constraint due to the lag dampers, results in excellent agreement between flight test and theory, especially in the high frequency range.

Dynamic 8-state ICSAR rumor propagation model considering official rumor refutation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong; Zhang, Bo

2014-12-01

With the rapid development of information networks, negative impacts of rumor propagation become more serious. Nowadays, knowing the mechanisms of rumor propagation and having an efficient official rumor refutation plan play very important roles in reducing losses and ensuring social safety. In this paper we first develop the dynamic 8-state ICSAR (Ignorance, Information Carrier, Information Spreader, Information Advocate, Removal) rumor propagation model to study the mechanism of rumor propagation. Eight influencing factors including information attraction, objective identification of rumors, subjective identification of people, the degree of trust of information media, spread probability, reinforcement coefficient, block value and expert effects which are related to rumor propagation were analyzed. Next, considering these factors and mechanisms of rumor propagation and refutation, the dynamic 8-state ICSAR rumor propagation model is verified by the SIR epidemic model, computer simulation and actual data. Thirdly, through quantitative sensitivity analysis, the detailed function of each influencing factor was studied and shown in the figure directly. According to these mechanisms, we could understand how to block a rumor in a very efficient way and which methods should be chosen in different situations. The ICSAR model can divide people into 8 states and analyze rumor and anti-rumor dissemination in an accurate way. Furthermore, official rumor refutation is considered in rumor propagation. The models and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of rumor refutation and making emergency plans, which help to reduce the possibility of losses in disasters and rumor propagation.

Dynamics of Metabolism and Decision Making During Alcohol Consumption: Modeling and Analysis.

PubMed

Giraldo, Luis Felipe; Passino, Kevin M; Clapp, John D; Ruderman, Danielle

2017-11-01

Heavy alcohol consumption is considered an important public health issue in the United States as over 88 000 people die every year from alcohol-related causes. Research is being conducted to understand the etiology of alcohol consumption and to develop strategies to decrease high-risk consumption and its consequences, but there are still important gaps in determining the main factors that influence the consumption behaviors throughout the drinking event. There is a need for methodologies that allow us not only to identify such factors but also to have a comprehensive understanding of how they are connected and how they affect the dynamical evolution of a drinking event. In this paper, we use previous empirical findings from laboratory and field studies to build a mathematical model of the blood alcohol concentration dynamics in individuals that are in drinking events. We characterize these dynamics as the result of the interaction between a decision-making system and the metabolic process for alcohol. We provide a model of the metabolic process for arbitrary alcohol intake patterns and a characterization of the mechanisms that drive the decision-making process of a drinker during the drinking event. We use computational simulations and Lyapunov stability theory to analyze the effects of the parameters of the model on the blood alcohol concentration dynamics that are characterized. Also, we propose a methodology to inform the model using data collected in situ and to make estimations that provide additional information to the analysis. We show how this model allows us to analyze and predict previously observed behaviors, to design new approaches for the collection of data that improves the construction of the model, and help with the design of interventions.

Quantifying the driving factors for language shift in a bilingual region.

PubMed

Prochazka, Katharina; Vogl, Gero

2017-04-25

Many of the world's around 6,000 languages are in danger of disappearing as people give up use of a minority language in favor of the majority language in a process called language shift. Language shift can be monitored on a large scale through the use of mathematical models by way of differential equations, for example, reaction-diffusion equations. Here, we use a different approach: we propose a model for language dynamics based on the principles of cellular automata/agent-based modeling and combine it with very detailed empirical data. Our model makes it possible to follow language dynamics over space and time, whereas existing models based on differential equations average over space and consequently provide no information on local changes in language use. Additionally, cellular automata models can be used even in cases where models based on differential equations are not applicable, for example, in situations where one language has become dispersed and retreated to language islands. Using data from a bilingual region in Austria, we show that the most important factor in determining the spread and retreat of a language is the interaction with speakers of the same language. External factors like bilingual schools or parish language have only a minor influence.

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-11-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model employing a detailed individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics, to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one representative "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single-factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model as documented in previous studies using other global models. Under an RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics up to the present. However, during the 21st century, nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contrasts with previous results with other global models that have shown an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake relative to modern baseline conditions. Implications for the plausibility of earlier projections of future terrestrial C dynamics based on C-only models are discussed.

Growth history and crown vine coverage are principal factors influencing growth and mortality rates of big-leaf mahogany Swietenia macrophylla in Brazil

Treesearch

James Grogan; R. Matthew Landis

2009-01-01

1. Current efforts to model population dynamics of high-value tropical timber species largely assume that individual growth history is unimportant to population dynamics, yet growth autocorrelation is known to adversely affect model predictions. In this study, we analyse a decade of annual census data from a natural population of big-leaf mahogany Swietenia macrophylla...

Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, D.; Davy, P.

2008-12-01

Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width without discharge variability does not induce a significant difference in the predicted long-term incision law and scaling of relief with incision rate at steady-state. We conclude that the simple stream power law models currently in use are false, and that details of short-term fluvial dynamics must make their way into long-term evolution models to avoid oversimplifying the coupled dynamics between erosion, tectonics and climate.

Logic-Based and Cellular Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Bortezomib Responses in U266 Human Myeloma Cells

PubMed Central

Chudasama, Vaishali L.; Ovacik, Meric A.; Abernethy, Darrell R.

2015-01-01

Systems models of biological networks show promise for informing drug target selection/qualification, identifying lead compounds and factors regulating disease progression, rationalizing combinatorial regimens, and explaining sources of intersubject variability and adverse drug reactions. However, most models of biological systems are qualitative and are not easily coupled with dynamical models of drug exposure-response relationships. In this proof-of-concept study, logic-based modeling of signal transduction pathways in U266 multiple myeloma (MM) cells is used to guide the development of a simple dynamical model linking bortezomib exposure to cellular outcomes. Bortezomib is a commonly used first-line agent in MM treatment; however, knowledge of the signal transduction pathways regulating bortezomib-mediated cell cytotoxicity is incomplete. A Boolean network model of 66 nodes was constructed that includes major survival and apoptotic pathways and was updated using responses to several chemical probes. Simulated responses to bortezomib were in good agreement with experimental data, and a reduction algorithm was used to identify key signaling proteins. Bortezomib-mediated apoptosis was not associated with suppression of nuclear factor κB (NFκB) protein inhibition in this cell line, which contradicts a major hypothesis of bortezomib pharmacodynamics. A pharmacodynamic model was developed that included three critical proteins (phospho-NFκB, BclxL, and cleaved poly (ADP ribose) polymerase). Model-fitted protein dynamics and cell proliferation profiles agreed with experimental data, and the model-predicted IC50 (3.5 nM) is comparable to the experimental value (1.5 nM). The cell-based pharmacodynamic model successfully links bortezomib exposure to MM cellular proliferation via protein dynamics, and this model may show utility in exploring bortezomib-based combination regimens. PMID:26163548

Animal population dynamics: Identification of critical components

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, J.M.; Pikitch, E.K.

1989-01-01

There is a growing interest in the use of population dynamics models in environmental risk assessment and the promulgation of environmental regulatory policies. Unfortunately, because of species and areal differences in the physical and biotic influences on population dynamics, such models must almost inevitably be both complex and species- or site-specific. Given the emormous variety of species and sites of potential concern, this fact presents a problem; it simply is not possible to construct models for all species and circumstances. Therefore, it is useful, before building predictive population models, to discover what input parameters are of critical importance to the desired output. This information should enable the construction of simpler and more generalizable models. As a first step, it is useful to consider population models as composed to two, partly separable classes, one comprising the purely mechanical descriptors of dynamics from given demographic parameter values, and the other describing the modulation of the demographic parameters by environmental factors (changes in physical environment, species interactions, pathogens, xenobiotic chemicals). This division permits sensitivity analyses to be run on the first of these classes, providing guidance for subsequent model simplification. We here apply such a sensitivity analysis to network models of mammalian and avian population dynamics.

Coupled Modeling of Rhizosphere and Reactive Transport Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roque-Malo, S.; Kumar, P.

2017-12-01

The rhizosphere, as a bio-diverse plant root-soil interface, hosts many hydrologic and biochemical processes, including nutrient cycling, hydraulic redistribution, and soil carbon dynamics among others. The biogeochemical function of root networks, including the facilitation of nutrient cycling through absorption and rhizodeposition, interaction with micro-organisms and fungi, contribution to biomass, etc., plays an important role in myriad Critical Zone processes. Despite this knowledge, the role of the rhizosphere on watershed-scale ecohydrologic functions in the Critical Zone has not been fully characterized, and specifically, the extensive capabilities of reactive transport models (RTMs) have not been applied to these hydrobiogeochemical dynamics. This study uniquely links rhizospheric processes with reactive transport modeling to couple soil biogeochemistry, biological processes, hydrologic flow, hydraulic redistribution, and vegetation dynamics. Key factors in the novel modeling approach are: (i) bi-directional effects of root-soil interaction, such as simultaneous root exudation and nutrient absorption; (ii) multi-state biomass fractions in soil (i.e. living, dormant, and dead biological and root materials); (iii) expression of three-dimensional fluxes to represent both vertical and lateral interconnected flows and processes; and (iv) the potential to include the influence of non-stationary external forcing and climatic factors. We anticipate that the resulting model will demonstrate the extensive effects of plant root dynamics on ecohydrologic functions at the watershed scale and will ultimately contribute to a better characterization of efflux from both agricultural and natural systems.

Mathematical models for plant-herbivore interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Zhilan; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2017-01-01

Mathematical Models of Plant-Herbivore Interactions addresses mathematical models in the study of practical questions in ecology, particularly factors that affect herbivory, including plant defense, herbivore natural enemies, and adaptive herbivory, as well as the effects of these on plant community dynamics. The result of extensive research on the use of mathematical modeling to investigate the effects of plant defenses on plant-herbivore dynamics, this book describes a toxin-determined functional response model (TDFRM) that helps explains field observations of these interactions. This book is intended for graduate students and researchers interested in mathematical biology and ecology.

A stochastic agent-based model of pathogen propagation in dynamic multi-relational social networks

PubMed Central

Khan, Bilal; Dombrowski, Kirk; Saad, Mohamed

2015-01-01

We describe a general framework for modeling and stochastic simulation of epidemics in realistic dynamic social networks, which incorporates heterogeneity in the types of individuals, types of interconnecting risk-bearing relationships, and types of pathogens transmitted across them. Dynamism is supported through arrival and departure processes, continuous restructuring of risk relationships, and changes to pathogen infectiousness, as mandated by natural history; dynamism is regulated through constraints on the local agency of individual nodes and their risk behaviors, while simulation trajectories are validated using system-wide metrics. To illustrate its utility, we present a case study that applies the proposed framework towards a simulation of HIV in artificial networks of intravenous drug users (IDUs) modeled using data collected in the Social Factors for HIV Risk survey. PMID:25859056

Dynamic modeling of Listeria monocytogenes growth in pasteurized vanilla cream after postprocessing contamination.

PubMed

Panagou, Efstathios Z; Nychas, George-John E

2008-09-01

A product-specific model was developed and validated under dynamic temperature conditions for predicting the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in pasteurized vanilla cream, a traditional milk-based product. Model performance was also compared with Growth Predictor and Sym'Previus predictive microbiology software packages. Commercially prepared vanilla cream samples were artificially inoculated with a five-strain cocktail of L. monocytogenes, with an initial concentration of 102 CFU g(-1), and stored at 3, 5, 10, and 15 degrees C for 36 days. The growth kinetic parameters at each temperature were determined by the primary model of Baranyi and Roberts. The maximum specific growth rate (mu(max)) was further modeled as a function of temperature by means of a square root-type model. The performance of the model in predicting the growth of the pathogen under dynamic temperature conditions was based on two different temperature scenarios with periodic changes from 4 to 15 degrees C. Growth prediction for dynamic temperature profiles was based on the square root model and the differential equations of the Baranyi and Roberts model, which were numerically integrated with respect to time. Model performance was based on the bias factor (B(f)), the accuracy factor (A(f)), the goodness-of-fit index (GoF), and the percent relative errors between observed and predicted growth. The product-specific model developed in the present study accurately predicted the growth of L. monocytogenes under dynamic temperature conditions. The average values for the performance indices were 1.038, 1.068, and 0.397 for B(f), A(f), and GoF, respectively for both temperature scenarios assayed. Predictions from Growth Predictor and Sym'Previus overestimated pathogen growth. The average values of B(f), A(f), and GoF were 1.173, 1.174, 1.162, and 0.956, 1.115, 0.713 for [corrected] Growth Predictor and Sym'Previus, respectively.

Measurement of Size-dependent Dynamic Shape Factors of Quartz Particles in Two Flow Regimes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, Jennifer M.; Bell, David M.; Imre, D.

2016-08-02

Understanding and modeling the behavior of quartz dust particles, commonly found in the atmosphere, requires knowledge of many relevant particles properties, including particle shape. This study uses a single particle mass spectrometer, a differential mobility analyzer, and an aerosol particle mass analyzer to measure quartz aerosol particles mobility, aerodynamic, and volume equivalent diameters, mass, composition, effective density, and dynamic shape factor as a function of particle size, in both the free molecular and transition flow regimes. The results clearly demonstrate that dynamic shape factors can vary significantly as a function of particle size. For the quartz samples studied here, themore » dynamic shape factors increase with size, indicating that larger particles are significantly more aspherical than smaller particles. In addition, dynamic shape factors measured in the free-molecular (χv) and transition (χt) flow regimes can be significantly different, and these differences vary with the size of the quartz particles. For quartz, χv of small (d < 200 nm) particles is 1.25, while χv of larger particles (d ~ 440 nm) is 1.6, with a continuously increasing trend with particle size. In contrast χt, of small particles starts at 1.1 increasing slowly to 1.34 for 550 nm diameter particles. The multidimensional particle characterization approach used here goes beyond determination of average properties for each size, to provide additional information about how the particle dynamic shape factor may vary even for particles with the same mass and volume equivalent diameter.« less

A dynamical model for bark beetle outbreaks

Treesearch

Vlastimil Krivan; Mark Lewis; Barbara J. Bentz; Sharon Bewick; Suzanne M. Lenhart; Andrew Liebhold

2016-01-01

Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees...

Effects of fertilizers used in agricultural fields on algal blooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Subhendu; Tiwari, P. K.; Sasmal, S. K.; Misra, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

2017-06-01

The increasing occurrence of algal blooms and their negative ecological impacts have led to intensified monitoring activities. This needs the proper identification of the most responsible factor/factors for the bloom formation. However, in natural systems, algal blooms result from a combination of factors and from observation it is difficult to identify the most important one. In the present paper, using a mathematical model we compare the effects of three human induced factors (fertilizer input in agricultural field, eutrophication due to other sources than fertilizers, and overfishing) on the bloom dynamics and DO level. By applying a sophisticated sensitivity analysis technique, we found that the increasing use of fertilizers in agricultural field causes more rapid algal growth and decreases DO level much faster than eutrophication from other sources and overfishing. We also look at the mechanisms how fertilizer input rate affects the algal bloom dynamics and DO level. The model can be helpful for the policy makers in determining the influential factors responsible for the bloom formation.

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-01-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one exemplary "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model, as documented in previous studies. Under a RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics until present. However, during the 21st century nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contradicts earlier model results that showed an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake, questioning the often stated assumption that projections of future terrestrial C dynamics from C-only models are too optimistic.

Complex networks under dynamic repair model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

2018-01-01

Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: coarse-graining a civil violence model.

PubMed

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: Coarse-graining a civil violence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A.; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

Optimal region of latching activity in an adaptive Potts model for networks of neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdollah-nia, Mohammad-Farshad; Saeedghalati, Mohammadkarim; Abbassian, Abdolhossein

2012-02-01

In statistical mechanics, the Potts model is a model for interacting spins with more than two discrete states. Neural networks which exhibit features of learning and associative memory can also be modeled by a system of Potts spins. A spontaneous behavior of hopping from one discrete attractor state to another (referred to as latching) has been proposed to be associated with higher cognitive functions. Here we propose a model in which both the stochastic dynamics of Potts models and an adaptive potential function are present. A latching dynamics is observed in a limited region of the noise(temperature)-adaptation parameter space. We hence suggest noise as a fundamental factor in such alternations alongside adaptation. From a dynamical systems point of view, the noise-adaptation alternations may be the underlying mechanism for multi-stability in attractor-based models. An optimality criterion for realistic models is finally inferred.

Phytoplankton dynamics of a subtropical reservoir controlled by the complex interplay among hydrological, abiotic, and biotic variables.

PubMed

Kuo, Yi-Ming; Wu, Jiunn-Tzong

2016-12-01

This study was conducted to identify the key factors related to the spatiotemporal variations in phytoplankton abundance in a subtropical reservoir from 2006 to 2010 and to assist in developing strategies for water quality management. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a dimension-reduction technique, was used to identify interactions between explanatory variables (i.e., environmental variables) and abundance (biovolume) of predominant phytoplankton classes. The optimal DFA model significantly described the dynamic changes in abundances of predominant phytoplankton groups (including dinoflagellates, diatoms, and green algae) at five monitoring sites. Water temperature, electrical conductivity, water level, nutrients (total phosphorus, NO 3 -N, and NH 3 -N), macro-zooplankton, and zooplankton were the key factors affecting the dynamics of aforementioned phytoplankton. Therefore, transformations of nutrients and reactions between water quality variables and aforementioned processes altered by hydrological conditions may also control the abundance dynamics of phytoplankton, which may represent common trends in the DFA model. The meandering shape of Shihmen Reservoir and its surrounding rivers caused a complex interplay between hydrological conditions and abiotic and biotic variables, resulting in phytoplankton abundance that could not be estimated using certain variables. Additional water quality and hydrological variables at surrounding rivers and monitoring plans should be executed a few days before and after reservoir operations and heavy storm, which would assist in developing site-specific preventive strategies to control phytoplankton abundance.

Dynamic modeling of moment wheel assemblies with nonlinear rolling bearing supports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hong; Han, Qinkai; Luo, Ruizhi; Qing, Tao

2017-10-01

Moment wheel assemblies (MWA) have been widely used in spacecraft attitude control and large angle slewing maneuvers over the years. Understanding and controlling vibration of MWAs is a crucial factor to achieving the desired level of payload performance. Dynamic modeling of a MWA with nonlinear rolling bearing supports is conducted. An improved load distribution analysis is proposed to more accurately obtain the contact deformations and angles between the rolling balls and raceways. Then, the bearing restoring forces are then obtained through iteratively solving the load distribution equations at every time step. The effects of preload condition, surface waviness, Hertz contact and elastohydrodynamic lubrication could all be reflected in the nonlinear bearing forces. Considering the mass imbalances of the flywheel, flexibility of supporting structures and rolling bearing nonlinearity, the dynamic model of a typical MWA is established based upon the energy theorem. Dynamic tests are conducted to verify the nonlinear dynamic model. The influences of flywheel mass eccentricity and inner/outer waviness amplitudes on the dynamic responses are discussed in detail. The obtained results would be useful for the design and vibration control of the MWA system.

School Variables as Mediators of Personal and Family Factors on School Violence in Taiwanese Junior High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Ji-Kang; Astor, Ron Avi

2012-01-01

Using a nationally representative sample of 3,058 junior high school students in Taiwan, this study examines a model of how personal traits, family factors, and school dynamics influence school violence committed by students against students and teachers. This model proposed that school violence is directly influenced by personal traits,…

Study on dynamic performance of SOFC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Haiyang; Liang, Qianchao; Wen, Qiang; Zhu, Runkai

2017-05-01

In order to solve the problem of real-time matching of load and fuel cell power, it is urgent to study the dynamic response process of SOFC in the case of load mutation. The mathematical model of SOFC is constructed, and its performance is simulated. The model consider the influence factors such as polarization effect, ohmic loss. It also takes the diffusion effect, thermal effect, energy exchange, mass conservation, momentum conservation. One dimensional dynamic mathematical model of SOFC is constructed by using distributed lumped parameter method. The simulation results show that the I-V characteristic curves are in good agreement with the experimental data, and the accuracy of the model is verified. The voltage response curve, power response curve and the efficiency curve are obtained by this way. It lays a solid foundation for the research of dynamic performance and optimal control in power generation system of high power fuel cell stack.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuypers, Marshall A.; Lambert, Gregory Joseph; Moore, Thomas W.

Chronic infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. As the nations largest provider of care for HCV, US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) invests extensive resources in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. This report documents modeling and analysis of HCV treatment dynamics performed for the VHA aimed at improving service delivery efficiency. System dynamics modeling of disease treatment demonstrated the benefits of early detection and the role of comorbidities in disease progress and patient mortality. Preliminary modeling showed that adherence to rigorous treatment protocols is a primary determinant of treatment success. In depthmore » meta-analysis revealed correlations of adherence and various psycho-social factors. This initial meta-analysis indicates areas where substantial improvement in patient outcomes can potentially result from VA programs which incorporate these factors into their design.« less

Dynamic Transcription Factor Networks in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition in Breast Cancer Models

PubMed Central

Siletz, Anaar; Schnabel, Michael; Kniazeva, Ekaterina; Schumacher, Andrew J.; Shin, Seungjin; Jeruss, Jacqueline S.; Shea, Lonnie D.

2013-01-01

The epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a complex change in cell differentiation that allows breast carcinoma cells to acquire invasive properties. EMT involves a cascade of regulatory changes that destabilize the epithelial phenotype and allow mesenchymal features to manifest. As transcription factors (TFs) are upstream effectors of the genome-wide expression changes that result in phenotypic change, understanding the sequential changes in TF activity during EMT provides rich information on the mechanism of this process. Because molecular interactions will vary as cells progress from an epithelial to a mesenchymal differentiation program, dynamic networks are needed to capture the changing context of molecular processes. In this study we applied an emerging high-throughput, dynamic TF activity array to define TF activity network changes in three cell-based models of EMT in breast cancer based on HMLE Twist ER and MCF-7 mammary epithelial cells. The TF array distinguished conserved from model-specific TF activity changes in the three models. Time-dependent data was used to identify pairs of TF activities with significant positive or negative correlation, indicative of interdependent TF activity throughout the six-day study period. Dynamic TF activity patterns were clustered into groups of TFs that change along a time course of gene expression changes and acquisition of invasive capacity. Time-dependent TF activity data was combined with prior knowledge of TF interactions to construct dynamic models of TF activity networks as epithelial cells acquire invasive characteristics. These analyses show EMT from a unique and targetable vantage and may ultimately contribute to diagnosis and therapy. PMID:23593114

Dynamic transcription factor networks in epithelial-mesenchymal transition in breast cancer models.

PubMed

Siletz, Anaar; Schnabel, Michael; Kniazeva, Ekaterina; Schumacher, Andrew J; Shin, Seungjin; Jeruss, Jacqueline S; Shea, Lonnie D

2013-01-01

The epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a complex change in cell differentiation that allows breast carcinoma cells to acquire invasive properties. EMT involves a cascade of regulatory changes that destabilize the epithelial phenotype and allow mesenchymal features to manifest. As transcription factors (TFs) are upstream effectors of the genome-wide expression changes that result in phenotypic change, understanding the sequential changes in TF activity during EMT provides rich information on the mechanism of this process. Because molecular interactions will vary as cells progress from an epithelial to a mesenchymal differentiation program, dynamic networks are needed to capture the changing context of molecular processes. In this study we applied an emerging high-throughput, dynamic TF activity array to define TF activity network changes in three cell-based models of EMT in breast cancer based on HMLE Twist ER and MCF-7 mammary epithelial cells. The TF array distinguished conserved from model-specific TF activity changes in the three models. Time-dependent data was used to identify pairs of TF activities with significant positive or negative correlation, indicative of interdependent TF activity throughout the six-day study period. Dynamic TF activity patterns were clustered into groups of TFs that change along a time course of gene expression changes and acquisition of invasive capacity. Time-dependent TF activity data was combined with prior knowledge of TF interactions to construct dynamic models of TF activity networks as epithelial cells acquire invasive characteristics. These analyses show EMT from a unique and targetable vantage and may ultimately contribute to diagnosis and therapy.

The effects of rigid motions on elastic network model force constants.

PubMed

Lezon, Timothy R

2012-04-01

Elastic network models provide an efficient way to quickly calculate protein global dynamics from experimentally determined structures. The model's single parameter, its force constant, determines the physical extent of equilibrium fluctuations. The values of force constants can be calculated by fitting to experimental data, but the results depend on the type of experimental data used. Here, we investigate the differences between calculated values of force constants and data from NMR and X-ray structures. We find that X-ray B factors carry the signature of rigid-body motions, to the extent that B factors can be almost entirely accounted for by rigid motions alone. When fitting to more refined anisotropic temperature factors, the contributions of rigid motions are significantly reduced, indicating that the large contribution of rigid motions to B factors is a result of over-fitting. No correlation is found between force constants fit to NMR data and those fit to X-ray data, possibly due to the inability of NMR data to accurately capture protein dynamics. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Seasonally forced disease dynamics explored as switching between attractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeling, Matt J.; Rohani, Pejman; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2001-01-01

Biological phenomena offer a rich diversity of problems that can be understood using mathematical techniques. Three key features common to many biological systems are temporal forcing, stochasticity and nonlinearity. Here, using simple disease models compared to data, we examine how these three factors interact to produce a range of complicated dynamics. The study of disease dynamics has been amongst the most theoretically developed areas of mathematical biology; simple models have been highly successful in explaining the dynamics of a wide variety of diseases. Models of childhood diseases incorporate seasonal variation in contact rates due to the increased mixing during school terms compared to school holidays. This ‘binary’ nature of the seasonal forcing results in dynamics that can be explained as switching between two nonlinear spiral sinks. Finally, we consider the stability of the attractors to understand the interaction between the deterministic dynamics and demographic and environmental stochasticity. Throughout attention is focused on the behaviour of measles, whooping cough and rubella.

Polarization and dynamical properties of VCSELs-based photonic neuron subject to optical pulse injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Shuiying; Wen, Aijun; Zhang, Hao; Li, Jiafu; Guo, Xingxing; Shang, Lei; Lin, Lin

2016-11-01

The polarization-resolved nonlinear dynamics of vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs) subject to orthogonally polarized optical pulse injection are investigated numerically based on the spin flip model. By extensive numerical bifurcation analysis, the responses dynamics of photonic neuron based on VCSELs under the arrival of external stimuli of orthogonally polarized optical pulse injection are mainly discussed. It is found that, several neuron-like dynamics, such as phasic spiking of a single abrupt large amplitude pulse followed with or without subthreshold oscillation, and tonic spiking with multiple periodic pulses, are successfully reproduced in the numerical model of VCSELs. Besides, the effects of stimuli strength, pump current, frequency detuning, as well as the linewidth enhancement factor on the neuron-like response dynamics are examined carefully. The operating parameters ranges corresponding to different neuron-like dynamics are further identified. Thus, the numerical model and simulation results are very useful and interesting for the ultrafast brain-inspired neuromorphic photonics systems based on VCSELs.

Spatio-temporal correlations in models of collective motion ruled by different dynamical laws.

PubMed

Cavagna, Andrea; Conti, Daniele; Giardina, Irene; Grigera, Tomas S; Melillo, Stefania; Viale, Massimiliano

2016-11-15

Information transfer is an essential factor in determining the robustness of biological systems with distributed control. The most direct way to study the mechanisms ruling information transfer is to experimentally observe the propagation across the system of a signal triggered by some perturbation. However, this method may be inefficient for experiments in the field, as the possibilities to perturb the system are limited and empirical observations must rely on natural events. An alternative approach is to use spatio-temporal correlations to probe the information transfer mechanism directly from the spontaneous fluctuations of the system, without the need to have an actual propagating signal on record. Here we test this method on models of collective behaviour in their deeply ordered phase by using ground truth data provided by numerical simulations in three dimensions. We compare two models characterized by very different dynamical equations and information transfer mechanisms: the classic Vicsek model, describing an overdamped noninertial dynamics and the inertial spin model, characterized by an underdamped inertial dynamics. By using dynamic finite-size scaling, we show that spatio-temporal correlations are able to distinguish unambiguously the diffusive information transfer mechanism of the Vicsek model from the linear mechanism of the inertial spin model.

Determining size-specific emission factors for environmental tobacco smoke particles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klepeis, Neil E.; Apte, Michael G.; Gundel, Lara A.

Because size is a major controlling factor for indoor airborne particle behavior, human particle exposure assessments will benefit from improved knowledge of size-specific particle emissions. We report a method of inferring size-specific mass emission factors for indoor sources that makes use of an indoor aerosol dynamics model, measured particle concentration time series data, and an optimization routine. This approach provides--in addition to estimates of the emissions size distribution and integrated emission factors--estimates of deposition rate, an enhanced understanding of particle dynamics, and information about model performance. We applied the method to size-specific environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) particle concentrations measured everymore » minute with an 8-channel optical particle counter (PMS-LASAIR; 0.1-2+ micrometer diameters) and every 10 or 30 min with a 34-channel differential mobility particle sizer (TSI-DMPS; 0.01-1+ micrometer diameters) after a single cigarette or cigar was machine-smoked inside a low air-exchange-rate 20 m{sup 3} chamber. The aerosol dynamics model provided good fits to observed concentrations when using optimized values of mass emission rate and deposition rate for each particle size range as input. Small discrepancies observed in the first 1-2 hours after smoking are likely due to the effect of particle evaporation, a process neglected by the model. Size-specific ETS particle emission factors were fit with log-normal distributions, yielding an average mass median diameter of 0.2 micrometers and an average geometric standard deviation of 2.3 with no systematic differences between cigars and cigarettes. The equivalent total particle emission rate, obtained integrating each size distribution, was 0.2-0.7 mg/min for cigars and 0.7-0.9 mg/min for cigarettes.« less

Robust dynamics in minimal hybrid models of genetic networks

PubMed Central

Perkins, Theodore J.; Wilds, Roy; Glass, Leon

2010-01-01

Many gene-regulatory networks necessarily display robust dynamics that are insensitive to noise and stable under evolution. We propose that a class of hybrid systems can be used to relate the structure of these networks to their dynamics and provide insight into the origin of robustness. In these systems, the genes are represented by logical functions, and the controlling transcription factor protein molecules are real variables, which are produced and destroyed. As the transcription factor concentrations cross thresholds, they control the production of other transcription factors. We discuss mathematical analysis of these systems and show how the concepts of robustness and minimality can be used to generate putative logical organizations based on observed symbolic sequences. We apply the methods to control of the cell cycle in yeast. PMID:20921006

Complex dynamics in supervised work groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Forno, Arianna; Merlone, Ugo

2013-07-01

In supervised work groups many factors concur to determine productivity. Some of them may be economical and some psychological. According to the literature, the heterogeneity in terms of individual capacity seems to be one of the principal causes for chaotic dynamics in a work group. May sorting groups of people with same capacity for effort be a solution? In the organizational psychology literature an important factor is the engagement in the task, while expectations are central in the economics literature. Therefore, we propose a dynamical model which takes into account both engagement in the task and expectations. An important lesson emerges. The intolerance deriving from the exposure to inequity may not be only caused by differences in individual capacities, but also by these factors combined. Consequently, solutions have to be found in this new direction.

Robust dynamics in minimal hybrid models of genetic networks.

PubMed

Perkins, Theodore J; Wilds, Roy; Glass, Leon

2010-11-13

Many gene-regulatory networks necessarily display robust dynamics that are insensitive to noise and stable under evolution. We propose that a class of hybrid systems can be used to relate the structure of these networks to their dynamics and provide insight into the origin of robustness. In these systems, the genes are represented by logical functions, and the controlling transcription factor protein molecules are real variables, which are produced and destroyed. As the transcription factor concentrations cross thresholds, they control the production of other transcription factors. We discuss mathematical analysis of these systems and show how the concepts of robustness and minimality can be used to generate putative logical organizations based on observed symbolic sequences. We apply the methods to control of the cell cycle in yeast.

Predicting Student Performance in a Collaborative Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olsen, Jennifer K.; Aleven, Vincent; Rummel, Nikol

2015-01-01

Student models for adaptive systems may not model collaborative learning optimally. Past research has either focused on modeling individual learning or for collaboration, has focused on group dynamics or group processes without predicting learning. In the current paper, we adjust the Additive Factors Model (AFM), a standard logistic regression…

Dynamics of Bacterial Gene Regulatory Networks.

PubMed

Shis, David L; Bennett, Matthew R; Igoshin, Oleg A

2018-05-20

The ability of bacterial cells to adjust their gene expression program in response to environmental perturbation is often critical for their survival. Recent experimental advances allowing us to quantitatively record gene expression dynamics in single cells and in populations coupled with mathematical modeling enable mechanistic understanding on how these responses are shaped by the underlying regulatory networks. Here, we review how the combination of local and global factors affect dynamical responses of gene regulatory networks. Our goal is to discuss the general principles that allow extrapolation from a few model bacteria to less understood microbes. We emphasize that, in addition to well-studied effects of network architecture, network dynamics are shaped by global pleiotropic effects and cell physiology.

A dynamical model for describing behavioural interventions for weight loss and body composition change

PubMed Central

Navarro-Barrientos, J.-Emeterio; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.

2011-01-01

We present a dynamical model incorporating both physiological and psychological factors that predicts changes in body mass and composition during the course of a behavioral intervention for weight loss. The model consists of a three-compartment energy balance integrated with a mechanistic psychological model inspired by the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The latter describes how important variables in a behavioural intervention can influence healthy eating habits and increased physical activity over time. The novelty of the approach lies in representing the behavioural intervention as a dynamical system, and the integration of the psychological and energy balance models. Two simulation scenarios are presented that illustrate how the model can improve the understanding of how changes in intervention components and participant differences affect outcomes. Consequently, the model can be used to inform behavioural scientists in the design of optimised interventions for weight loss and body composition change. PMID:21673826

Short-Range Order and Collective Dynamics of DMPC Bilayers: A Comparison between Molecular Dynamics Simulations, X-Ray, and Neutron Scattering Experiments

PubMed Central

Hub, Jochen S.; Salditt, Tim; Rheinstädter, Maikel C.; de Groot, Bert L.

2007-01-01

We present an extensive comparison of short-range order and short wavelength dynamics of a hydrated phospholipid bilayer derived by molecular dynamics simulations, elastic x-ray, and inelastic neutron scattering experiments. The quantities that are compared between simulation and experiment include static and dynamic structure factors, reciprocal space mappings, and electron density profiles. We show that the simultaneous use of molecular dynamics and diffraction data can help to extract real space properties like the area per lipid and the lipid chain ordering from experimental data. In addition, we assert that the interchain distance can be computed to high accuracy from the interchain correlation peak of the structure factor. Moreover, it is found that the position of the interchain correlation peak is not affected by the area per lipid, while its correlation length decreases linearly with the area per lipid. This finding allows us to relate a property of the structure factor quantitatively to the area per lipid. Finally, the short wavelength dynamics obtained from the simulations and from inelastic neutron scattering are analyzed and compared. The conventional interpretation in terms of the three-effective-eigenmode model is found to be only partly suitable to describe the complex fluid dynamics of lipid chains. PMID:17631531

Fractal attractors in economic growth models with random pollution externalities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Torre, Davide; Marsiglio, Simone; Privileggi, Fabio

2018-05-01

We analyze a discrete time two-sector economic growth model where the production technologies in the final and human capital sectors are affected by random shocks both directly (via productivity and factor shares) and indirectly (via a pollution externality). We determine the optimal dynamics in the decentralized economy and show how these dynamics can be described in terms of a two-dimensional affine iterated function system with probability. This allows us to identify a suitable parameter configuration capable of generating exactly the classical Barnsley's fern as the attractor of the log-linearized optimal dynamical system.

HIV dynamics with multiple infections of target cells.

PubMed

Dixit, Narendra M; Perelson, Alan S

2005-06-07

The high incidence of multiple infections of cells by HIV sets the stage for rapid HIV evolution by means of recombination. Yet how HIV dynamics proceeds with multiple infections remains poorly understood. Here, we present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of viral, target cell, and multiply infected cell subpopulations during HIV infection. Model calculations reproduce several experimental observations and provide key insights into the influence of multiple infections on HIV dynamics. We find that the experimentally observed scaling law, that the number of cells coinfected with two distinctly labeled viruses is proportional to the square of the total number of infected cells, can be generalized so that the number of triply infected cells is proportional to the cube of the number of infected cells, etc. Despite the expectation from Poisson statistics, we find that this scaling relationship only holds under certain conditions, which we predict. We also find that multiple infections do not influence viral dynamics when the rate of viral production from infected cells is independent of the number of times the cells are infected, a regime expected when viral production is limited by cellular rather than viral factors. This result may explain why extant models, which ignore multiple infections, successfully describe viral dynamics in HIV patients. Inhibiting CD4 down-modulation increases the average number of infections per cell. Consequently, altering CD4 down-modulation may allow for an experimental determination of whether viral or cellular factors limit viral production.

HIV dynamics with multiple infections of target cells

PubMed Central

Dixit, Narendra M.; Perelson, Alan S.

2005-01-01

The high incidence of multiple infections of cells by HIV sets the stage for rapid HIV evolution by means of recombination. Yet how HIV dynamics proceeds with multiple infections remains poorly understood. Here, we present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of viral, target cell, and multiply infected cell subpopulations during HIV infection. Model calculations reproduce several experimental observations and provide key insights into the influence of multiple infections on HIV dynamics. We find that the experimentally observed scaling law, that the number of cells coinfected with two distinctly labeled viruses is proportional to the square of the total number of infected cells, can be generalized so that the number of triply infected cells is proportional to the cube of the number of infected cells, etc. Despite the expectation from Poisson statistics, we find that this scaling relationship only holds under certain conditions, which we predict. We also find that multiple infections do not influence viral dynamics when the rate of viral production from infected cells is independent of the number of times the cells are infected, a regime expected when viral production is limited by cellular rather than viral factors. This result may explain why extant models, which ignore multiple infections, successfully describe viral dynamics in HIV patients. Inhibiting CD4 down-modulation increases the average number of infections per cell. Consequently, altering CD4 down-modulation may allow for an experimental determination of whether viral or cellular factors limit viral production. PMID:15928092

Recent developments in computer modeling add ecological realism to landscape genetics

EPA Science Inventory

Background / Question / Methods A factor limiting the rate of progress in landscape genetics has been the shortage of spatial models capable of linking life history attributes such as dispersal behavior to complex dynamic landscape features. The recent development of new models...

Using System Dynamic Model and Neural Network Model to Analyse Water Scarcity in Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Tang, C.; Xu, L.; Ye, S.

2017-07-01

Many parts of the world are facing the problem of Water Scarcity. Analysing Water Scarcity quantitatively is an important step to solve the problem. Water scarcity in a region is gauged by WSI (water scarcity index), which incorporate water supply and water demand. To get the WSI, Neural Network Model and SDM (System Dynamic Model) that depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand are developed to depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand. The uneven distribution of water resource and water demand across a region leads to an uneven distribution of WSI within this region. To predict WSI for the future, logistic model, Grey Prediction, and statistics are applied in predicting variables. Sudan suffers from severe water scarcity problem with WSI of 1 in 2014, water resource unevenly distributed. According to the result of modified model, after the intervention, Sudan’s water situation will become better.

Dynamics of Active Layer Depth across Alaskan Tundra Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, C.; Zhang, X.; Song, X.; Xu, X.

2016-12-01

The thickness of the active layer, near-surface layer of Earth material above permafrost undergoing seasonal freezing and thawing, is of considerable importance in high-latitude environments because most physical, chemical, and biological processes in the permafrost region take place within it. The dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) result from a combination of various factors including heat transfer, soil water content, soil texture, root density, stem density, moss layer thickness, organic layer thickness, etc. However, the magnitude and controls of ALT in the permafrost region remain uncertain. The purpose of this study is to improve our understanding of the dynamics of ALT across Alaskan tundra ecosystems and their controls at multiple scales, ranging from plots to entire Alaska. This study compiled a comprehensive dataset of ALT at site and regional scales across the Alaskan tundra ecosystems, and further analyzed ALT dynamics and their hierarchical controls. We found that air temperature played a predominant role on the seasonality of ALT, regulated by other physical and chemical factors including soil texture, moisture, and root density. The structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis confirmed the predominant role of physical controls (dominated by heat and soil properties), followed by chemical and biological factors. Then a simple empirical model was developed to reconstruct the ALT across the Alaska. The comparisons against field observational data show that the method used in this study is robust; the reconstructed time-series ALT across Alaska provides a valuable dataset source for understanding ALT and validating large-scale ecosystem models.

Development and Implementation of a Telecommuting Evaluation Framework, and Modeling the Executive Telecommuting Adoption Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vora, V. P.; Mahmassani, H. S.

2002-02-01

This work proposes and implements a comprehensive evaluation framework to document the telecommuter, organizational, and societal impacts of telecommuting through telecommuting programs. Evaluation processes and materials within the outlined framework are also proposed and implemented. As the first component of the evaluation process, the executive survey is administered within a public sector agency. The survey data is examined through exploratory analysis and is compared to a previous survey of private sector executives. The ordinal probit, dynamic probit, and dynamic generalized ordinal probit (DGOP) models of telecommuting adoption are calibrated to identify factors which significantly influence executive adoption preferences and to test the robustness of such factors. The public sector DGOP model of executive willingness to support telecommuting under different program scenarios is compared with an equivalent private sector DGOP model. Through the telecommuting program, a case study of telecommuting travel impacts is performed to further substantiate research.

Larval connectivity of pearl oyster through biophysical modelling; evidence of food limitation and broodstock effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Yoann; Dumas, Franck; Andréfouët, Serge

2016-12-01

The black-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada margaritifera) is cultured extensively to produce black pearls, especially in French Polynesia atoll lagoons. This aquaculture relies on spat collection, a process that experiences spatial and temporal variability and needs to be optimized by understanding which factors influence recruitment. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of P. margaritifera larval dispersal to both physical and biological factors in the lagoon of Ahe atoll. Coupling a validated 3D larval dispersal model, a bioenergetics larval growth model following the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, and a population dynamics model, the variability of lagoon-scale connectivity patterns and recruitment potential is investigated. The relative contribution of reared and wild broodstock to the lagoon-scale recruitment potential is also investigated. Sensitivity analyses pointed out the major effect of the broodstock population structure as well as the sensitivity to larval mortality rate and inter-individual growth variability to larval supply and to the subsequent settlement potential. The application of the growth model clarifies how trophic conditions determine the larval supply and connectivity patterns. These results provide new cues to understand the dynamics of bottom-dwelling populations in atoll lagoons, their recruitment, and discuss how to take advantage of these findings and numerical models for pearl oyster management.

Factors influencing recruitment of walleye and white bass to three distinct early ontogenetic stages

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeBoer, Jason A.; Pope, Kevin L.

2015-01-01

Determining the factors that influence recruitment to sequential ontogenetic stages is critical for understanding recruitment dynamics of fish and for effective management of sportfish, particularly in dynamic and unpredictable environments. We sampled walleye (Sander vitreus) and white bass (Morone chrysops) at 3 ontogenetic stages (age 0 during spring: ‘age-0 larval’; age 0 during autumn: ‘age-0 juvenile’; and age 1 during autumn: ‘age-1 juvenile’) from 3 reservoirs. We developed multiple linear regression models to describe factors influencing age-0 larval, age-0 juvenile and age-1 juvenile walleye and white bass abundance indices. Our models explained 40–80% (68 ± 9%; mean ± SE) and 71%–97% (81 ± 6%) of the variability in catch for walleye and white bass respectively. For walleye, gizzard shad were present in the candidate model sets for all three ontogenetic stages we assessed. For white bass, there was no unifying variable in all three stage-specific candidate model sets, although walleye abundance was present in two of the three white bass candidate model sets. We were able to determine several factors affecting walleye and white bass year-class strength at multiple ontogenetic stages; comprehensive analyses of factors influencing recruitment to multiple early ontogenetic stages are seemingly rare in the literature. Our models demonstrate the interdependency among early ontogenetic stages and the complexities involved with sportfish recruitment.

Frequency-dependent local field factors in dielectric liquids by a polarizable force field and molecular dynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davari, Nazanin; Haghdani, Shokouh; Åstrand, Per-Olof

2015-12-01

A force field model for calculating local field factors, i.e. the linear response of the local electric field for example at a nucleus in a molecule with respect to an applied electric field, is discussed. It is based on a combined charge-transfer and point-dipole interaction model for the polarizability, and thereby it includes two physically distinct terms for describing electronic polarization: changes in atomic charges arising from transfer of charge between the atoms and atomic induced dipole moments. A time dependence is included both for the atomic charges and the atomic dipole moments and if they are assumed to oscillate with the same frequency as the applied electric field, a model for frequency-dependent properties are obtained. Furthermore, if a life-time of excited states are included, a model for the complex frequency-dependent polariability is obtained including also information about excited states and the absorption spectrum. We thus present a model for the frequency-dependent local field factors through the first molecular excitation energy. It is combined with molecular dynamics simulations of liquids where a large set of configurations are sampled and for which local field factors are calculated. We are normally not interested in the average of the local field factor but rather in configurations where it is as high as possible. In electrical insulation, we would like to avoid high local field factors to reduce the risk for electrical breakdown, whereas for example in surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy, high local field factors are desired to give dramatically increased intensities.

Linking Structural Equation Modelling with Bayesian Network and Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in Bohai Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Jiangtao; Yang, Yue

2018-06-01

Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modelling and have become an increasingly popular modelling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modelling (SEM). In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models and increases the BN model's accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, despite the Redfield ratio indicating that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results indicate that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in Bohai Bay.

An Agent-Based Model for Studying Child Maltreatment and Child Maltreatment Prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard W.

This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of child maltreatment and child maltreatment prevention. The developed model follows the principles of complex systems science and explicitly models a community and its families with multi-level factors and interconnections across the social ecology. This makes it possible to experiment how different factors and prevention strategies can affect the rate of child maltreatment. We present the background of this work and give an overview of the agent-based model and show some simulation results.

Analyzing neuronal networks using discrete-time dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Sungwoo; Smith, Brian H.; Borisyuk, Alla; Terman, David

2010-05-01

We develop mathematical techniques for analyzing detailed Hodgkin-Huxley like models for excitatory-inhibitory neuronal networks. Our strategy for studying a given network is to first reduce it to a discrete-time dynamical system. The discrete model is considerably easier to analyze, both mathematically and computationally, and parameters in the discrete model correspond directly to parameters in the original system of differential equations. While these networks arise in many important applications, a primary focus of this paper is to better understand mechanisms that underlie temporally dynamic responses in early processing of olfactory sensory information. The models presented here exhibit several properties that have been described for olfactory codes in an insect’s Antennal Lobe. These include transient patterns of synchronization and decorrelation of sensory inputs. By reducing the model to a discrete system, we are able to systematically study how properties of the dynamics, including the complex structure of the transients and attractors, depend on factors related to connectivity and the intrinsic and synaptic properties of cells within the network.

Piloting Changes to Changing Aircraft Dynamics: What Do Pilots Need to Know?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.; Gregory, Irene M.

2011-01-01

An experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of changing dynamics on a subject s ability to track a signal in order to eventually model a pilot adapting to changing aircraft dynamics. The data will be used to identify primary aircraft dynamics variables that influence changes in pilot s response and produce a simplified pilot model that incorporates this relationship. Each run incorporated a different set of second-order aircraft dynamics representing short period transfer function pitch attitude response: damping ratio, frequency, gain, zero location, and time delay. The subject s ability to conduct the tracking task was the greatest source of root mean square error tracking variability. As for the aircraft dynamics, the factors that affected the subjects ability to conduct the tracking were the time delay, frequency, and zero location. In addition to creating a simplified pilot model, the results of the experiment can be utilized in an advisory capacity. A situation awareness/prediction aid based on the pilot behavior and aircraft dynamics may help tailor pilot s inputs more quickly so that PIO or an upset condition can be avoided.

Thermal noise model of antiferromagnetic dynamics: A macroscopic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xilai; Semenov, Yuriy; Kim, Ki Wook

In the search for post-silicon technologies, antiferromagnetic (AFM) spintronics is receiving widespread attention. Due to faster dynamics when compared with its ferromagnetic counterpart, AFM enables ultra-fast magnetization switching and THz oscillations. A crucial factor that affects the stability of antiferromagnetic dynamics is the thermal fluctuation, rarely considered in AFM research. Here, we derive from theory both stochastic dynamic equations for the macroscopic AFM Neel vector (L-vector) and the corresponding Fokker-Plank equation for the L-vector distribution function. For the dynamic equation approach, thermal noise is modeled by a stochastic fluctuating magnetic field that affects the AFM dynamics. The field is correlated within the correlation time and the amplitude is derived from the energy dissipation theory. For the distribution function approach, the inertial behavior of AFM dynamics forces consideration of the generalized space, including both coordinates and velocities. Finally, applying the proposed thermal noise model, we analyze a particular case of L-vector reversal of AFM nanoparticles by voltage controlled perpendicular magnetic anisotropy (PMA) with a tailored pulse width. This work was supported, in part, by SRC/NRI SWAN.

[Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means of time series analysis].

PubMed

Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita

2013-09-01

Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.

Dynamics in entangled polyethylene melts [Multi time scale dynamics in entangled polyethylene melts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salerno, K. Michael; Agrawal, Anupriya; Peters, Brandon L.

Polymer dynamics creates distinctive viscoelastic behavior as a result of a coupled interplay of motion at the atomic length scale and motion of the entire macromolecule. Capturing the broad time and length scales of polymeric motion however, remains a challenge. Using linear polyethylene as a model system, we probe the effects of the degree of coarse graining on polymer dynamics. Coarse-grained (CG) potentials are derived using iterative Boltzmann inversion with λ methylene groups per CG bead (denoted CGλ) with λ = 2,3,4 and 6 from a fully-atomistic polyethylene melt simulation. By rescaling time in the CG models by a factormore » α, the chain mobility for the atomistic and CG models match. We show that independent of the degree of coarse graining, all measured static and dynamic properties are essentially the same once the dynamic scaling factor α and a non-crossing constraint for the CG6 model are included. The speedup of the CG4 model is about 3 times that of the CG3 model and is comparable to that of the CG6 model. Furthermore, using these CG models we were able to reach times of over 500 μs, allowing us to measure a number of quantities, including the stress relaxation function, plateau modulus and shear viscosity, and compare directly to experiment.« less

Dynamics in entangled polyethylene melts [Multi time scale dynamics in entangled polyethylene melts

DOE PAGES

Salerno, K. Michael; Agrawal, Anupriya; Peters, Brandon L.; ...

2016-10-10

Polymer dynamics creates distinctive viscoelastic behavior as a result of a coupled interplay of motion at the atomic length scale and motion of the entire macromolecule. Capturing the broad time and length scales of polymeric motion however, remains a challenge. Using linear polyethylene as a model system, we probe the effects of the degree of coarse graining on polymer dynamics. Coarse-grained (CG) potentials are derived using iterative Boltzmann inversion with λ methylene groups per CG bead (denoted CGλ) with λ = 2,3,4 and 6 from a fully-atomistic polyethylene melt simulation. By rescaling time in the CG models by a factormore » α, the chain mobility for the atomistic and CG models match. We show that independent of the degree of coarse graining, all measured static and dynamic properties are essentially the same once the dynamic scaling factor α and a non-crossing constraint for the CG6 model are included. The speedup of the CG4 model is about 3 times that of the CG3 model and is comparable to that of the CG6 model. Furthermore, using these CG models we were able to reach times of over 500 μs, allowing us to measure a number of quantities, including the stress relaxation function, plateau modulus and shear viscosity, and compare directly to experiment.« less

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Single molecule translocation in smectics illustrates the challenge for time-mapping in simulations on multiple scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Biswaroop; Peter, Christine; Kremer, Kurt

2017-09-01

Understanding the connections between the characteristic dynamical time scales associated with a coarse-grained (CG) and a detailed representation is central to the applicability of the coarse-graining methods to understand molecular processes. The process of coarse graining leads to an accelerated dynamics, owing to the smoothening of the underlying free-energy landscapes. Often a single time-mapping factor is used to relate the time scales associated with the two representations. We critically examine this idea using a model system ideally suited for this purpose. Single molecular transport properties are studied via molecular dynamics simulations of the CG and atomistic representations of a liquid crystalline, azobenzene containing mesogen, simulated in the smectic and the isotropic phases. The out-of-plane dynamics in the smectic phase occurs via molecular hops from one smectic layer to the next. Hopping can occur via two mechanisms, with and without significant reorientation. The out-of-plane transport can be understood as a superposition of two (one associated with each mode of transport) independent continuous time random walks for which a single time-mapping factor would be rather inadequate. A comparison of the free-energy surfaces, relevant to the out-of-plane transport, qualitatively supports the above observations. Thus, this work underlines the need for building CG models that exhibit both structural and dynamical consistency to the underlying atomistic model.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

PubMed Central

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Sensitivity analysis of a sediment dynamics model applied in a Mediterranean river basin: global change and management implications.

PubMed

Sánchez-Canales, M; López-Benito, A; Acuña, V; Ziv, G; Hamel, P; Chaplin-Kramer, R; Elorza, F J

2015-01-01

Climate change and land-use change are major factors influencing sediment dynamics. Models can be used to better understand sediment production and retention by the landscape, although their interpretation is limited by large uncertainties, including model parameter uncertainties. The uncertainties related to parameter selection may be significant and need to be quantified to improve model interpretation for watershed management. In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) sediment retention model in order to determine which model parameters had the greatest influence on model outputs, and therefore require special attention during calibration. The estimation of the sediment loads in this model is based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The sensitivity analysis was performed in the Llobregat basin (NE Iberian Peninsula) for exported and retained sediment, which support two different ecosystem service benefits (avoided reservoir sedimentation and improved water quality). Our analysis identified the model parameters related to the natural environment as the most influential for sediment export and retention. Accordingly, small changes in variables such as the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events could cause major changes in sediment dynamics, demonstrating the sensitivity of these dynamics to climate change in Mediterranean basins. Parameters directly related to human activities and decisions (such as cover management factor, C) were also influential, especially for sediment exported. The importance of these human-related parameters in the sediment export process suggests that mitigation measures have the potential to at least partially ameliorate climate-change driven changes in sediment exportation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A data-driven dynamics simulation framework for railway vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Yinyu; Tang, Zhao; Liu, Fengjia; Chang, Jian; Zhang, Jianjun

2018-03-01

The finite element (FE) method is essential for simulating vehicle dynamics with fine details, especially for train crash simulations. However, factors such as the complexity of meshes and the distortion involved in a large deformation would undermine its calculation efficiency. An alternative method, the multi-body (MB) dynamics simulation provides satisfying time efficiency but limited accuracy when highly nonlinear dynamic process is involved. To maintain the advantages of both methods, this paper proposes a data-driven simulation framework for dynamics simulation of railway vehicles. This framework uses machine learning techniques to extract nonlinear features from training data generated by FE simulations so that specific mesh structures can be formulated by a surrogate element (or surrogate elements) to replace the original mechanical elements, and the dynamics simulation can be implemented by co-simulation with the surrogate element(s) embedded into a MB model. This framework consists of a series of techniques including data collection, feature extraction, training data sampling, surrogate element building, and model evaluation and selection. To verify the feasibility of this framework, we present two case studies, a vertical dynamics simulation and a longitudinal dynamics simulation, based on co-simulation with MATLAB/Simulink and Simpack, and a further comparison with a popular data-driven model (the Kriging model) is provided. The simulation result shows that using the legendre polynomial regression model in building surrogate elements can largely cut down the simulation time without sacrifice in accuracy.

Dynamics of the Glycophorin A Dimer in Membranes of Native-Like Composition Uncovered by Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Simulations

PubMed Central

Flinner, Nadine; Schleiff, Enrico

2015-01-01

Membranes are central for cells as borders to the environment or intracellular organelle definition. They are composed of and harbor different molecules like various lipid species and sterols, and they are generally crowded with proteins. The membrane system is very dynamic and components show lateral, rotational and translational diffusion. The consequence of the latter is that phase separation can occur in membranes in vivo and in vitro. It was documented that molecular dynamics simulations of an idealized plasma membrane model result in formation of membrane areas where either saturated lipids and cholesterol (liquid-ordered character, Lo) or unsaturated lipids (liquid-disordered character, Ld) were enriched. Furthermore, current discussions favor the idea that proteins are sorted into the liquid-disordered phase of model membranes, but experimental support for the behavior of isolated proteins in native membranes is sparse. To gain insight into the protein behavior we built a model of the red blood cell membrane with integrated glycophorin A dimer. The sorting and the dynamics of the dimer were subsequently explored by coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. In addition, we inspected the impact of lipid head groups and the presence of cholesterol within the membrane on the dynamics of the dimer within the membrane. We observed that cholesterol is important for the formation of membrane areas with Lo and Ld character. Moreover, it is an important factor for the reproduction of the dynamic behavior of the protein found in its native environment. The protein dimer was exclusively sorted into the domain of Ld character in the model red blood cell plasma membrane. Therefore, we present structural information on the glycophorin A dimer distribution in the plasma membrane in the absence of other factors like e.g. lipid anchors in a coarse grain resolution. PMID:26222139

Free-Flight Investigation of the Static and Dynamic Longitudinal Stability Characteristics of 1/3.7-Scale Rocket-Powered Models of the Bell MX-776A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michal, David H.

1950-01-01

An investigation of the static and dynamic longitudinal stability characteristics of 1/3.7 scale rocket-powered model of the Bell MX-776A has been made for a Mach number range from 0.8 to 1.6. Two models were tested with all control surfaces at 0 degree deflection and centers of gravity located 1/4 and 1/2 body diameters, respectively, ahead of the equivalent design location. Both models were stable about the trim conditions but did not trim at 0 degree angle of attack because of slight constructional asymmetries. The results indicated that the variation of lift and pitching moment was not linear with angle of attack. Both lift-curve slope and pitching-moment-curve slope were of the smallest magnitude near 0 degree angle of attack. In general, an increase in angle of attack was accompanied by a rearward movement of the aerodynamic center as the rear wing moved out of the downwash from the forward surfaces. This characteristic was more pronounced in the transonic region. The dynamic stability in the form of total damping factor varied with normal-force coefficient but was greatest for both models at a Mach number of approximately 1.25. The damping factor was greater at the lower trim normal-force coefficients except at a Mach number of 1.0. At that speed the damping factor was of about the same magnitude for both models. The drag coefficient increased with trim normal-force coefficient and was largest in the transonic region.

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run.

PubMed

Armeanu, Daniel; Andrei, Jean Vasile; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets.

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run

PubMed Central

Armeanu, Daniel; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. PMID:28742100

Numerical Modeling of Unsteady Thermofluid Dynamics in Cryogenic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, Alok

2003-01-01

A finite volume based network analysis procedure has been applied to model unsteady flow without and with heat transfer. Liquid has been modeled as compressible fluid where the compressibility factor is computed from the equation of state for a real fluid. The modeling approach recognizes that the pressure oscillation is linked with the variation of the compressibility factor; therefore, the speed of sound does not explicitly appear in the governing equations. The numerical results of chilldown process also suggest that the flow and heat transfer are strongly coupled. This is evident by observing that the mass flow rate during 90-second chilldown process increases by factor of ten.

Numerical modeling of local scour around hydraulic structure in sandy beds by dynamic mesh method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Fei; Liang, Bingchen; Bai, Yuchuan; Zhu, Zhixia; Zhu, Yanjun

2017-10-01

Local scour, a non-negligible factor in hydraulic engineering, endangers the safety of hydraulic structures. In this work, a numerical model for simulating local scour was constructed, based on the open source code computational fluid dynamics model OpenFOAM. We consider both the bedload and suspended load sediment transport in the scour model and adopt the dynamic mesh method to simulate the evolution of the bed elevation. We use the finite area method to project data between the three-dimensional flow model and the two-dimensional (2D) scour model. We also improved the 2D sand slide method and added it to the scour model to correct the bed bathymetry when the bed slope angle exceeds the angle of repose. Moreover, to validate our scour model, we conducted and compared the results of three experiments with those of the developed model. The validation results show that our developed model can reliably simulate local scour.

Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Grain Boundary and Bulk Diffusion in Metals.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plimpton, Steven James

Diffusion is a microscopic mass transport mechanism that underlies many important macroscopic phenomena affecting the structural, electrical, and mechanical properties of metals. This thesis presents results from atomistic simulation studies of diffusion both in bulk and in the fast diffusion paths known as grain boundaries. Using the principles of molecular dynamics single boundaries are studied and their structure and dynamic properties characterized. In particular, tilt boundary bicrystal and bulk models of fcc Al and bcc alpha-Fe are simulated. Diffusion coefficients and activation energies for atomic motion are calculated for both models and compared to experimental data. The influence of the interatomic pair potential on the diffusion is studied in detail. A universal relation between the melting temperature that a pair potential induces in a simulated bulk model and the potential energy barrier height for atomic hopping is derived and used to correlate results for a wide variety of pair potentials. Using these techniques grain boundary and bulk diffusion coefficients for any fcc material can be estimated from simple static calculations without the need to perform more time-consuming dynamic simulations. The influences of two other factors on grain boundary diffusion are also studied because of the interest of the microelectronics industry in the diffusion related reliability problem known as electromigration. The first factor, known to affect the self diffusion rate of Al, is the presence of Cu impurity atoms in Al tilt boundaries. The bicrystal model for Al is seeded randomly with Cu atoms and a simple hybrid Morse potential used to model the Al-Cu interaction. While some effect due to the Cu is noted, it is concluded that pair potentials are likely an inadequate approximation for the alloy system. The second factor studied is the effect of the boundary orientation angle on the diffusion rate. Symmetric bcc Fe boundaries are relaxed to find optimal structures and their diffusion coefficients calculated. Good agreement is found with the dislocation pipe model for tilt boundary diffusion.

Quantifying the driving factors for language shift in a bilingual region

PubMed Central

Prochazka, Katharina; Vogl, Gero

2017-01-01

Many of the world’s around 6,000 languages are in danger of disappearing as people give up use of a minority language in favor of the majority language in a process called language shift. Language shift can be monitored on a large scale through the use of mathematical models by way of differential equations, for example, reaction–diffusion equations. Here, we use a different approach: we propose a model for language dynamics based on the principles of cellular automata/agent-based modeling and combine it with very detailed empirical data. Our model makes it possible to follow language dynamics over space and time, whereas existing models based on differential equations average over space and consequently provide no information on local changes in language use. Additionally, cellular automata models can be used even in cases where models based on differential equations are not applicable, for example, in situations where one language has become dispersed and retreated to language islands. Using data from a bilingual region in Austria, we show that the most important factor in determining the spread and retreat of a language is the interaction with speakers of the same language. External factors like bilingual schools or parish language have only a minor influence. PMID:28298530

A DST Model of Multilingualism and the Role of Metalinguistic Awareness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jessner, Ulrike

2008-01-01

This paper suggests that a dynamic systems theory (DST) provides an adequate conceptual metaphor for discussing multilingual development. Multilingual acquisition is a nonlinear and complex dynamic process depending on a number of interacting factors. Variability plays a crucial role in the multilingual system as it changes over time (Herdina &…

The analysis of factors of management of safety of critical information infrastructure with use of dynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trostyansky, S. N.; Kalach, A. V.; Lavlinsky, V. V.; Lankin, O. V.

2018-03-01

Based on the analysis of the dynamic model of panel data by region, including fire statistics for surveillance sites and statistics of a set of regional socio-economic indicators, as well as the time of rapid response of the state fire service to fires, the probability of fires in the surveillance sites and the risk of human death in The result of such fires from the values of the corresponding indicators for the previous year, a set of regional social-economics factors, as well as regional indicators time rapid response of the state fire service in the fire. The results obtained are consistent with the results of the application to the fire risks of the model of a rational offender. Estimation of the economic equivalent of human life from data on surveillance objects for Russia, calculated on the basis of the analysis of the presented dynamic model of fire risks, correctly agrees with the known literary data. The results obtained on the basis of the econometric approach to fire risks allow us to forecast fire risks at the supervisory sites in the regions of Russia and to develop management solutions to minimize such risks.

Multilattice sampling strategies for region of interest dynamic MRI.

PubMed

Rilling, Gabriel; Tao, Yuehui; Marshall, Ian; Davies, Mike E

2013-08-01

A multilattice sampling approach is proposed for dynamic MRI with Cartesian trajectories. It relies on the use of sampling patterns composed of several different lattices and exploits an image model where only some parts of the image are dynamic, whereas the rest is assumed static. Given the parameters of such an image model, the methodology followed for the design of a multilattice sampling pattern adapted to the model is described. The multi-lattice approach is compared to single-lattice sampling, as used by traditional acceleration methods such as UNFOLD (UNaliasing by Fourier-Encoding the Overlaps using the temporal Dimension) or k-t BLAST, and random sampling used by modern compressed sensing-based methods. On the considered image model, it allows more flexibility and higher accelerations than lattice sampling and better performance than random sampling. The method is illustrated on a phase-contrast carotid blood velocity mapping MR experiment. Combining the multilattice approach with the KEYHOLE technique allows up to 12× acceleration factors. Simulation and in vivo undersampling results validate the method. Compared to lattice and random sampling, multilattice sampling provides significant gains at high acceleration factors. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis.

PubMed

Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Duarte, Marlyn; Zhang, Junfeng Jim

2016-09-01

Knowledge on the characteristics of infectious disease propagation in metropolises plays a critical role in guiding public health intervention strategies to reduce death tolls, disease incidence, and possible economic losses. Based on the SIR model, we established a comprehensive spatiotemporal risk assessment model to compute infectious disease propagation within an urban setting using Beijing, China as a case study. The model was developed for a dynamic population distribution using actual data on location, density of residences and offices, and means of public transportation (e.g., subways, buses and taxis). We evaluated four influencing factors including biological, behavioral, environmental parameters and infectious sources. The model output resulted in a set of maps showing how the four influencing factors affected the trend and characteristics of airborne infectious disease propagation in Beijing. We compared the scenarios for the long-term dynamic propagation of infectious disease without governmental interventions versus scenarios with government intervention and hospital coordinated emergency responses. Lastly, the sensitivity of the average number of people at different location in spreading infections is analyzed. Based on our results, we provide valuable recommendations to governmental agencies and the public in order to minimize the disease propagation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Job Performance as Multivariate Dynamic Criteria: Experience Sampling and Multiway Component Analysis.

PubMed

Spain, Seth M; Miner, Andrew G; Kroonenberg, Pieter M; Drasgow, Fritz

2010-08-06

Questions about the dynamic processes that drive behavior at work have been the focus of increasing attention in recent years. Models describing behavior at work and research on momentary behavior indicate that substantial variation exists within individuals. This article examines the rationale behind this body of work and explores a method of analyzing momentary work behavior using experience sampling methods. The article also examines a previously unused set of methods for analyzing data produced by experience sampling. These methods are known collectively as multiway component analysis. Two archetypal techniques of multimode factor analysis, the Parallel factor analysis and the Tucker3 models, are used to analyze data from Miner, Glomb, and Hulin's (2010) experience sampling study of work behavior. The efficacy of these techniques for analyzing experience sampling data is discussed as are the substantive multimode component models obtained.

Modeling the Ebola zoonotic dynamics: Interplay between enviroclimatic factors and bat ecology

PubMed Central

Johnson, Kaylynn

2017-01-01

Understanding Ebola necessarily requires the characterization of the ecology of its main enzootic reservoir, i.e. bats, and its interplay with seasonal and enviroclimatic factors. Here we present a SIR compartmental model where we implement a bidirectional coupling between the available resources and the dynamics of the bat population in order to understand their migration patterns. Our compartmental modeling approach and simulations include transport terms to account for bats mobility and spatiotemporal climate variability. We hypothesize that environmental pressure is the main driving force for bats’ migration and our results reveal the appearance of sustained migratory waves of Ebola virus infected bats coupled to resources availability. Ultimately, our study can be relevant to predict hot spots of Ebola outbreaks in space and time and suggest conservation policies to mitigate the risk of spillovers. PMID:28604813

Using exploratory regression to identify optimal driving factors for cellular automaton modeling of land use change.

PubMed

Feng, Yongjiu; Tong, Xiaohua

2017-09-22

Defining transition rules is an important issue in cellular automaton (CA)-based land use modeling because these models incorporate highly correlated driving factors. Multicollinearity among correlated driving factors may produce negative effects that must be eliminated from the modeling. Using exploratory regression under pre-defined criteria, we identified all possible combinations of factors from the candidate factors affecting land use change. Three combinations that incorporate five driving factors meeting pre-defined criteria were assessed. With the selected combinations of factors, three logistic regression-based CA models were built to simulate dynamic land use change in Shanghai, China, from 2000 to 2015. For comparative purposes, a CA model with all candidate factors was also applied to simulate the land use change. Simulations using three CA models with multicollinearity eliminated performed better (with accuracy improvements about 3.6%) than the model incorporating all candidate factors. Our results showed that not all candidate factors are necessary for accurate CA modeling and the simulations were not sensitive to changes in statistically non-significant driving factors. We conclude that exploratory regression is an effective method to search for the optimal combinations of driving factors, leading to better land use change models that are devoid of multicollinearity. We suggest identification of dominant factors and elimination of multicollinearity before building land change models, making it possible to simulate more realistic outcomes.

Mathematical modeling of atopic dermatitis reveals "double-switch" mechanisms underlying 4 common disease phenotypes.

PubMed

Domínguez-Hüttinger, Elisa; Christodoulides, Panayiotis; Miyauchi, Kosuke; Irvine, Alan D; Okada-Hatakeyama, Mariko; Kubo, Masato; Tanaka, Reiko J

2017-06-01

The skin barrier acts as the first line of defense against constant exposure to biological, microbial, physical, and chemical environmental stressors. Dynamic interplay between defects in the skin barrier, dysfunctional immune responses, and environmental stressors are major factors in the development of atopic dermatitis (AD). A systems biology modeling approach can yield significant insights into these complex and dynamic processes through integration of prior biological data. We sought to develop a multiscale mathematical model of AD pathogenesis that describes the dynamic interplay between the skin barrier, environmental stress, and immune dysregulation and use it to achieve a coherent mechanistic understanding of the onset, progression, and prevention of AD. We mathematically investigated synergistic effects of known genetic and environmental risk factors on the dynamic onset and progression of the AD phenotype, from a mostly asymptomatic mild phenotype to a severe treatment-resistant form. Our model analysis identified a "double switch," with 2 concatenated bistable switches, as a key network motif that dictates AD pathogenesis: the first switch is responsible for the reversible onset of inflammation, and the second switch is triggered by long-lasting or frequent activation of the first switch, causing irreversible onset of systemic T H 2 sensitization and worsening of AD symptoms. Our mathematical analysis of the bistable switch predicts that genetic risk factors decrease the threshold of environmental stressors to trigger systemic T H 2 sensitization. This analysis predicts and explains 4 common clinical AD phenotypes from a mild and reversible phenotype through to severe and recalcitrant disease and provides a mechanistic explanation for clinically demonstrated preventive effects of emollient treatments against development of AD. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of rigid motions on elastic network model force constants

PubMed Central

Lezon, Timothy R.

2012-01-01

Elastic network models provide an efficient way to quickly calculate protein global dynamics from experimentally determined structures. The model’s single parameter, its force constant, determines the physical extent of equilibrium fluctuations. The values of force constants can be calculated by fitting to experimental data, but the results depend on the type of experimental data used. Here we investigate the differences between calculated values of force constants _t to data from NMR and X-ray structures. We find that X-ray B factors carry the signature of rigid-body motions, to the extent that B factors can be almost entirely accounted for by rigid motions alone. When fitting to more refined anisotropic temperature factors, the contributions of rigid motions are significantly reduced, indicating that the large contribution of rigid motions to B factors is a result of over-fitting. No correlation is found between force constants fit to NMR data and those fit to X-ray data, possibly due to the inability of NMR data to accurately capture protein dynamics. PMID:22228562

BEEHAVE: a systems model of honeybee colony dynamics and foraging to explore multifactorial causes of colony failure

PubMed Central

Becher, Matthias A; Grimm, Volker; Thorbek, Pernille; Horn, Juliane; Kennedy, Peter J; Osborne, Juliet L

2014-01-01

A notable increase in failure of managed European honeybee Apis mellifera L. colonies has been reported in various regions in recent years. Although the underlying causes remain unclear, it is likely that a combination of stressors act together, particularly varroa mites and other pathogens, forage availability and potentially pesticides. It is experimentally challenging to address causality at the colony scale when multiple factors interact. In silico experiments offer a fast and cost-effective way to begin to address these challenges and inform experiments. However, none of the published bee models combine colony dynamics with foraging patterns and varroa dynamics. We have developed a honeybee model, BEEHAVE, which integrates colony dynamics, population dynamics of the varroa mite, epidemiology of varroa-transmitted viruses and allows foragers in an agent-based foraging model to collect food from a representation of a spatially explicit landscape. We describe the model, which is freely available online (www.beehave-model.net). Extensive sensitivity analyses and tests illustrate the model's robustness and realism. Simulation experiments with various combinations of stressors demonstrate, in simplified landscape settings, the model's potential: predicting colony dynamics and potential losses with and without varroa mites under different foraging conditions and under pesticide application. We also show how mitigation measures can be tested. Synthesis and applications. BEEHAVE offers a valuable tool for researchers to design and focus field experiments, for regulators to explore the relative importance of stressors to devise management and policy advice and for beekeepers to understand and predict varroa dynamics and effects of management interventions. We expect that scientists and stakeholders will find a variety of applications for BEEHAVE, stimulating further model development and the possible inclusion of other stressors of potential importance to honeybee colony dynamics. PMID:25598549

BEEHAVE: a systems model of honeybee colony dynamics and foraging to explore multifactorial causes of colony failure.

PubMed

Becher, Matthias A; Grimm, Volker; Thorbek, Pernille; Horn, Juliane; Kennedy, Peter J; Osborne, Juliet L

2014-04-01

A notable increase in failure of managed European honeybee Apis mellifera L. colonies has been reported in various regions in recent years. Although the underlying causes remain unclear, it is likely that a combination of stressors act together, particularly varroa mites and other pathogens, forage availability and potentially pesticides. It is experimentally challenging to address causality at the colony scale when multiple factors interact. In silico experiments offer a fast and cost-effective way to begin to address these challenges and inform experiments. However, none of the published bee models combine colony dynamics with foraging patterns and varroa dynamics.We have developed a honeybee model, BEEHAVE, which integrates colony dynamics, population dynamics of the varroa mite, epidemiology of varroa-transmitted viruses and allows foragers in an agent-based foraging model to collect food from a representation of a spatially explicit landscape.We describe the model, which is freely available online (www.beehave-model.net). Extensive sensitivity analyses and tests illustrate the model's robustness and realism. Simulation experiments with various combinations of stressors demonstrate, in simplified landscape settings, the model's potential: predicting colony dynamics and potential losses with and without varroa mites under different foraging conditions and under pesticide application. We also show how mitigation measures can be tested. Synthesis and applications . BEEHAVE offers a valuable tool for researchers to design and focus field experiments, for regulators to explore the relative importance of stressors to devise management and policy advice and for beekeepers to understand and predict varroa dynamics and effects of management interventions. We expect that scientists and stakeholders will find a variety of applications for BEEHAVE, stimulating further model development and the possible inclusion of other stressors of potential importance to honeybee colony dynamics.

Parallel capillary-tube-based extension of thermoacoustic theory for random porous media.

PubMed

Roh, Heui-Seol; Raspet, Richard; Bass, Henry E

2007-03-01

Thermoacoustic theory is extended to stacks made of random bulk media. Characteristics of the porous stack such as the tortuosity and dynamic shape factors are introduced into the thermoacoustic wave equation in the low reduced frequency approximation. Basic thermoacoustic equations for a bulk porous medium are formulated analogously to the equations for a single pore. Use of different dynamic shape factors for the viscous and thermal effects is adopted and scaling using the dynamic shape factors and tortuosity is demonstrated. Comparisons of the calculated and experimentally derived thermoacoustic properties of reticulated vitreous carbon and aluminum foam show good agreement. A consistent mathematical model of sound propagation in a random porous medium with an imposed temperature is developed. This treatment leads to an expression for the coefficient of the temperature gradient in terms of scaled cylindrical thermoviscous functions.

Predictors and Mediators of Sustainable Collaboration and Implementation in Comprehensive School Health Promotion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pucher, Katharina K.; Candel, Math J. J. M.; Boot, Nicole M. W. M.; de Vries, Nanne K.

2017-01-01

Purpose: The Diagnosis of Sustainable Collaboration (DISC) model (Leurs et al., 2008) specifies five factors (i.e. project management, change management, context, external factors, and stakeholders' support) which predict whether collaboration becomes strong and stable. The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamics of these factors in a study…

A socio-hydrologic model of coupled water-agriculture dynamics with emphasis on farm size.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brugger, D. R.; Maneta, M. P.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land cover dynamics in the U.S. are dominated by two trends: 1) total agricultural land is decreasing and 2) average farm size is increasing. These trends have important implications for the future of water resources because 1) growing more food on less land is due in large part to increased groundwater withdrawal and 2) larger farms can better afford both more efficient irrigation and more groundwater access. However, these large-scale trends are due to individual farm operators responding to many factors including climate, economics, and policy. It is therefore difficult to incorporate the trends into watershed-scale hydrologic models. Traditional scenario-based approaches are valuable for many applications, but there is typically no feedback between the hydrologic model and the agricultural dynamics and so limited insight is gained into the how agriculture co-evolves with water resources. We present a socio-hydrologic model that couples simplified hydrologic and agricultural economic dynamics, accounting for many factors that depend on farm size such as irrigation efficiency and returns to scale. We introduce an "economic memory" (EM) state variable that is driven by agricultural revenue and affects whether farms are sold when land market values exceed expected returns from agriculture. The model uses a Generalized Mixture Model of Gaussians to approximate the distribution of farm sizes in a study area, effectively lumping farms into "small," "medium," and "large" groups that have independent parameterizations. We apply the model in a semi-arid watershed in the upper Columbia River Basin, calibrating to data on streamflow, total agricultural land cover, and farm size distribution. The model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the coupled system to various hydrologic and economic scenarios such as increasing market value of land, reduced surface water availability, and increased irrigation efficiency in small farms.

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

Modeling detour behavior of pedestrian dynamics under different conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Yunchao; Xiao, Yao; Wu, Jianjun; Tang, Tao; Gao, Ziyou

2018-02-01

Pedestrian simulation approach has been widely used to reveal the human behavior and evaluate the performance of crowd evacuation. In the existing pedestrian simulation models, the social force model is capable of predicting many collective phenomena. Detour behavior occurs in many cases, and the important behavior is a dominate factor of the crowd evacuation efficiency. However, limited attention has been attracted for analyzing and modeling the characteristics of detour behavior. In this paper, a modified social force model integrated by Voronoi diagram is proposed to calculate the detour direction and preferred velocity. Besides, with the consideration of locations and velocities of neighbor pedestrians, a Logit-based choice model is built to describe the detour direction choice. The proposed model is applied to analyze pedestrian dynamics in a corridor scenario with either unidirectional or bidirectional flow, and a building scenario in real-world. Simulation results show that the modified social force model including detour behavior could reduce the frequency of collision and deadlock, increase the average speed of the crowd, and predict more practical crowd dynamics with detour behavior. This model can also be potentially applied to understand the pedestrian dynamics and design emergent management strategies for crowd evacuations.

Multi-Scale Multi-Domain Model | Transportation Research | NREL

Science.gov Websites

framework for NREL's MSMD model. NREL's MSMD model quantifies the impacts of electrical/thermal pathway : NREL Macroscopic design factors and highly dynamic environmental conditions significantly influence the design of affordable, long-lasting, high-performing, and safe large battery systems. The MSMD framework

The Conceptual Framework of Factors Affecting Shared Mental Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Miyoung; Johnson, Tristan; Lee, Youngmin; O'Connor, Debra; Khalil, Mohammed

2004-01-01

Many researchers have paid attention to the potentiality and possibility of the shared mental model because it enables teammates to perform their job better by sharing team knowledge, skills, attitudes, dynamics and environments. Even though theoretical and experimental evidences provide a close relationship between the shared mental model and…

Dynamic Cognitive Tracing: Towards Unified Discovery of Student and Cognitive Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez-Brenes, Jose P.; Mostow, Jack

2012-01-01

This work describes a unified approach to two problems previously addressed separately in Intelligent Tutoring Systems: (i) Cognitive Modeling, which factorizes problem solving steps into the latent set of skills required to perform them; and (ii) Student Modeling, which infers students' learning by observing student performance. The practical…

GPS receiver phase biases estimable in PPP-RTK networks: dynamic characterization and impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Baocheng; Liu, Teng; Yuan, Yunbin

2017-11-01

The integer ambiguity resolution enabled precise point positioning (PPP-RTK) has been proven advantageous in a wide range of applications. The realization of PPP-RTK concerns the isolation of satellite phase biases (SPBs) and other corrections from a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) reference receivers. This is generally based on Kalman filter in order to achieve real-time capability, in which proper modeling of the dynamics of various types of unknowns remains crucial. This paper seeks to gain insight into how to reasonably deal with the dynamic behavior of the estimable receiver phase biases (RPBs). Using dual-frequency GPS data collected at six colocated receivers over days 50-120 of 2015, we analyze the 30-s epoch-by-epoch estimates of L1 and wide-lane (WL) RPBs for each receiver pair. The dynamics observed in these estimates are a combined effect of three factors, namely the random measurement noise, the multipath and the ambient temperature. The first factor can be overcome by turning to a real-time filter and the second by considering the use of a sidereal filtering. The third factor has an effect only on the WL, and this effect appears to be linear. After accounting for these three factors, the low-pass-filtered, sidereal-filtered, epoch-by-epoch estimates of L1 RPBs follow a random walk process, whereas those of WL RPBs are constant over time. Properly modeling the dynamics of RPBs is vital, as it ensures the best convergence of the Kalman-filtered, between-satellite single-differenced SPB estimates to their correct values and, in turn, shortens the time-to-first-fix at user side.

GPS receiver phase biases estimable in PPP-RTK networks: dynamic characterization and impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Baocheng; Liu, Teng; Yuan, Yunbin

2018-06-01

The integer ambiguity resolution enabled precise point positioning (PPP-RTK) has been proven advantageous in a wide range of applications. The realization of PPP-RTK concerns the isolation of satellite phase biases (SPBs) and other corrections from a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) reference receivers. This is generally based on Kalman filter in order to achieve real-time capability, in which proper modeling of the dynamics of various types of unknowns remains crucial. This paper seeks to gain insight into how to reasonably deal with the dynamic behavior of the estimable receiver phase biases (RPBs). Using dual-frequency GPS data collected at six colocated receivers over days 50-120 of 2015, we analyze the 30-s epoch-by-epoch estimates of L1 and wide-lane (WL) RPBs for each receiver pair. The dynamics observed in these estimates are a combined effect of three factors, namely the random measurement noise, the multipath and the ambient temperature. The first factor can be overcome by turning to a real-time filter and the second by considering the use of a sidereal filtering. The third factor has an effect only on the WL, and this effect appears to be linear. After accounting for these three factors, the low-pass-filtered, sidereal-filtered, epoch-by-epoch estimates of L1 RPBs follow a random walk process, whereas those of WL RPBs are constant over time. Properly modeling the dynamics of RPBs is vital, as it ensures the best convergence of the Kalman-filtered, between-satellite single-differenced SPB estimates to their correct values and, in turn, shortens the time-to-first-fix at user side.

Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control

PubMed Central

Stewart Ibarra, Anna M.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Beltrán, Efrain; Mejía, Raúl; Silva, Mercy; Muñoz, Ángel

2013-01-01

Background Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. Methods/Principal findings We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. Conclusions These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish. PMID:24324542

Mechanistic modeling of microbial interactions at pore to profile scale resolve methane emission dynamics from permafrost soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimi, Ali; Or, Dani

2017-05-01

The sensitivity of polar regions to raising global temperatures is reflected in rapidly changing hydrological processes associated with pronounced seasonal thawing of permafrost soil and increased biological activity. Of particular concern is the potential release of large amounts of soil carbon and stimulation of other soil-borne greenhouse gas emissions such as methane. Soil methanotrophic and methanogenic microbial communities rapidly adjust their activity and spatial organization in response to permafrost thawing and other environmental factors. Soil structural elements such as aggregates and layering affect oxygen and nutrient diffusion processes thereby contributing to methanogenic activity within temporal anoxic niches (hot spots). We developed a mechanistic individual-based model to quantify microbial activity dynamics in soil pore networks considering transport processes and enzymatic activity associated with methane production in soil. The model was upscaled from single aggregates to the soil profile where freezing/thawing provides macroscopic boundary conditions for microbial activity at different soil depths. The model distinguishes microbial activity in aerate bulk soil from aggregates (or submerged profile) for resolving methane production and oxidation rates. Methane transport pathways by diffusion and ebullition of bubbles vary with hydration dynamics. The model links seasonal thermal and hydrologic dynamics with evolution of microbial community composition and function affecting net methane emissions in good agreement with experimental data. The mechanistic model enables systematic evaluation of key controlling factors in thawing permafrost and microbial response (e.g., nutrient availability and enzyme activity) on long-term methane emissions and carbon decomposition rates in the rapidly changing polar regions.

Using experimental human influenza infections to validate a viral dynamic model and the implications for prediction.

PubMed

Chen, S C; You, S H; Liu, C Y; Chio, C P; Liao, C M

2012-09-01

The aim of this work was to use experimental infection data of human influenza to assess a simple viral dynamics model in epithelial cells and better understand the underlying complex factors governing the infection process. The developed study model expands on previous reports of a target cell-limited model with delayed virus production. Data from 10 published experimental infection studies of human influenza was used to validate the model. Our results elucidate, mechanistically, the associations between epithelial cells, human immune responses, and viral titres and were supported by the experimental infection data. We report that the maximum total number of free virions following infection is 10(3)-fold higher than the initial introduced titre. Our results indicated that the infection rates of unprotected epithelial cells probably play an important role in affecting viral dynamics. By simulating an advanced model of viral dynamics and applying it to experimental infection data of human influenza, we obtained important estimates of the infection rate. This work provides epidemiologically meaningful results, meriting further efforts to understand the causes and consequences of influenza A infection.

Measuring and modeling travel well-being in a dynamic context.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

Travel behavior models typically assume that people base their travel choices on time and cost : considerations and do not account sufficiently for qualitative factors that affect the choice. Travel : choices are however more likely to be motivated b...

Growing complex network of citations of scientific papers: Modeling and measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golosovsky, Michael; Solomon, Sorin

2017-01-01

We consider the network of citations of scientific papers and use a combination of the theoretical and experimental tools to uncover microscopic details of this network growth. Namely, we develop a stochastic model of citation dynamics based on the copying-redirection-triadic closure mechanism. In a complementary and coherent way, the model accounts both for statistics of references of scientific papers and for their citation dynamics. Originating in empirical measurements, the model is cast in such a way that it can be verified quantitatively in every aspect. Such validation is performed by measuring citation dynamics of physics papers. The measurements revealed nonlinear citation dynamics, the nonlinearity being intricately related to network topology. The nonlinearity has far-reaching consequences including nonstationary citation distributions, diverging citation trajectories of similar papers, runaways or "immortal papers" with infinite citation lifetime, etc. Thus nonlinearity in complex network growth is our most important finding. In a more specific context, our results can be a basis for quantitative probabilistic prediction of citation dynamics of individual papers and of the journal impact factor.

Temporal Trends and Hydrological Controls of Fisheries Production in the Madeira River (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, D. A.; Lima, M. A.; Doria, C.

2016-12-01

Amazonian river systems are characterized by a strongly seasonal flood pulse and important hydrologic effects have been observed in the dynamics of fish stocks and fishing yields. Changes in the Amazon's freshwater ecosystems from hydropower development will have a cascade of physical, ecological, and social effects and impacts on fish and fisheries are expected to be potentially irreversible. In this work we investigate shared trends and causal factors driving fish catch in the Madeira River (a major tributary of the Amazon) before dam construction to derive relationships between catch and natural hydrologic dynamics. We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis to investigate dynamics in fish catch across ten commercially important fish species in the Madeira River using daily fish landings data including species and total weight and daily hydrological data obtained from the Brazilian Geological Service. Total annual catch averaged over the 18-yr period (1990-2007) was 849 tons yr-1. Species with the highest catch included curimatã, dourada/filhote and pacu, highlighting the importance of medium and long-distance migratory species for fisheries production. We found a four-trend dynamic factor model (DFM) to best fit the observed data, assessed using the Akaike Information Criteria. Model goodness of fit was fair (R2=0.51) but highly variable across species (0.16 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.95). Fitted trends exhibited strong and regular year-to-year variation representative of the seasonal hydrologic pulsing observed on the Madeira River. Next, we considered 11 candidate explanatory time series and found the best DFM used four explanatory variables and only one common trend. While the model fit with explanatory variables was lower (R2=0.31) it removed much reliance on unknown common trends. The most important explanatory variable in this model was maximum water level followed by days flooded, river flow of the previous year and increment. We found unique responses to hydrological variations across the ten species, suggesting that dam operating rules need to closely mimic natural hydrologic regime in order to maintain the dynamics of these ecosystems. Future multidisciplinary analyses to understand the complex social-ecological effects of dams are needed to improve management practices and support sustainable livelihoods.

The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

2017-05-01

Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

Quantum and classical dynamics of water dissociation on Ni(111): A test of the site-averaging model in dissociative chemisorption of polyatomic molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Bin; Department of Chemical Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026; Guo, Hua, E-mail: hguo@unm.edu

Recently, we reported the first highly accurate nine-dimensional global potential energy surface (PES) for water interacting with a rigid Ni(111) surface, built on a large number of density functional theory points [B. Jiang and H. Guo, Phys. Rev. Lett. 114, 166101 (2015)]. Here, we investigate site-specific reaction probabilities on this PES using a quasi-seven-dimensional quantum dynamical model. It is shown that the site-specific reactivity is largely controlled by the topography of the PES instead of the barrier height alone, underscoring the importance of multidimensional dynamics. In addition, the full-dimensional dissociation probability is estimated by averaging fixed-site reaction probabilities with appropriatemore » weights. To validate this model and gain insights into the dynamics, additional quasi-classical trajectory calculations in both full and reduced dimensions have also been performed and important dynamical factors such as the steering effect are discussed.« less

System Dynamic Model for the Accumulation of Renewable Electricity using Power-to-Gas and Power-to-Liquid Concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumberga, Andra; Timma, Lelde; Blumberga, Dagnija

2015-12-01

When the renewable energy is used, the challenge is match the supply of intermittent energy with the demand for energy therefore the energy storage solutions should be used. This paper is dedicated to hydrogen accumulation from wind sources. The case study investigates the conceptual system that uses intermitted renewable energy resources to produce hydrogen (power-to-gas concept) and fuel (power-to-liquid concept). For this specific case study hydrogen is produced from surplus electricity generated by wind power plant trough electrolysis process and fuel is obtained by upgrading biogas to biomethane using hydrogen. System dynamic model is created for this conceptual system. The developed system dynamics model has been used to simulate 2 different scenarios. The results show that in both scenarios the point at which the all electricity needs of Latvia are covered is obtained. Moreover, the methodology of system dynamics used in this paper is white-box model that allows to apply the developed model to other case studies and/or to modify model based on the newest data. The developed model can be used for both scientific research and policy makers to better understand the dynamic relation within the system and the response of system to changes in both internal and external factors.

Modeling socio-cultural processes in network-centric environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eunice E.; Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Korah, John; George, Riya; Gu, Qi; Kim, Keumjoo; Li, Deqing; Russell, Jacob; Subramanian, Suresh

2012-05-01

The major focus in the field of modeling & simulation for network centric environments has been on the physical layer while making simplifications for the human-in-the-loop. However, the human element has a big impact on the capabilities of network centric systems. Taking into account the socio-behavioral aspects of processes such as team building, group decision-making, etc. are critical to realistically modeling and analyzing system performance. Modeling socio-cultural processes is a challenge because of the complexity of the networks, dynamism in the physical and social layers, feedback loops and uncertainty in the modeling data. We propose an overarching framework to represent, model and analyze various socio-cultural processes within network centric environments. The key innovation in our methodology is to simultaneously model the dynamism in both the physical and social layers while providing functional mappings between them. We represent socio-cultural information such as friendships, professional relationships and temperament by leveraging the Culturally Infused Social Network (CISN) framework. The notion of intent is used to relate the underlying socio-cultural factors to observed behavior. We will model intent using Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs), a probabilistic reasoning network, which can represent incomplete and uncertain socio-cultural information. We will leverage previous work on a network performance modeling framework called Network-Centric Operations Performance and Prediction (N-COPP) to incorporate dynamism in various aspects of the physical layer such as node mobility, transmission parameters, etc. We validate our framework by simulating a suitable scenario, incorporating relevant factors and providing analyses of the results.

Dynamic mechanical properties of a Ti-based metallic glass matrix composite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jinshan; Cui, Jing; Qiao, Jichao; Bai, Jie; Kou, Hongchao; Wang, Jun

2015-04-01

Dynamic mechanical behavior of a Ti50Zr20Nb12Cu5Be13 bulk metallic glass composite was investigated using mechanical spectroscopy in both temperature and frequency domains. Storage modulus G' and loss modulus G″ are determined by temperature, and three distinct regions corresponding to different states in the bulk metallic glass composite are characterized. Physical parameters, such as atomic mobility and correlation factor χ, are introduced to analyze dynamic mechanical behavior of the bulk metallic glass composite in the framework of quasi-point defects (QPD) model. The experimental results are in good agreement with the prediction of QPD model.

Dynamic mechanical properties of a Ti-based metallic glass matrix composite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Jinshan, E-mail: ljsh@nwpu.edu.cn; Cui, Jing; Bai, Jie

2015-04-21

Dynamic mechanical behavior of a Ti{sub 50}Zr{sub 20}Nb{sub 12}Cu{sub 5}Be{sub 13} bulk metallic glass composite was investigated using mechanical spectroscopy in both temperature and frequency domains. Storage modulus G′ and loss modulus G″ are determined by temperature, and three distinct regions corresponding to different states in the bulk metallic glass composite are characterized. Physical parameters, such as atomic mobility and correlation factor χ, are introduced to analyze dynamic mechanical behavior of the bulk metallic glass composite in the framework of quasi-point defects (QPD) model. The experimental results are in good agreement with the prediction of QPD model.

Quantum theory for the dynamic structure factor in correlated two-component systems in nonequilibrium: Application to x-ray scattering.

PubMed

Vorberger, J; Chapman, D A

2018-01-01

We present a quantum theory for the dynamic structure factors in nonequilibrium, correlated, two-component systems such as plasmas or warm dense matter. The polarization function, which is needed as the input for the calculation of the structure factors, is calculated in nonequilibrium based on a perturbation expansion in the interaction strength. To make our theory applicable for x-ray scattering, a generalized Chihara decomposition for the total electron structure factor in nonequilibrium is derived. Examples are given and the influence of correlations and exchange on the structure and the x-ray-scattering spectrum are discussed for a model nonequilibrium distribution, as often encountered during laser heating of materials, as well as for two-temperature systems.

Quantum theory for the dynamic structure factor in correlated two-component systems in nonequilibrium: Application to x-ray scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorberger, J.; Chapman, D. A.

2018-01-01

We present a quantum theory for the dynamic structure factors in nonequilibrium, correlated, two-component systems such as plasmas or warm dense matter. The polarization function, which is needed as the input for the calculation of the structure factors, is calculated in nonequilibrium based on a perturbation expansion in the interaction strength. To make our theory applicable for x-ray scattering, a generalized Chihara decomposition for the total electron structure factor in nonequilibrium is derived. Examples are given and the influence of correlations and exchange on the structure and the x-ray-scattering spectrum are discussed for a model nonequilibrium distribution, as often encountered during laser heating of materials, as well as for two-temperature systems.

The transcriptional network that controls growth arrest and differentiation in a human myeloid leukemia cell line.

PubMed

Suzuki, Harukazu; Forrest, Alistair R R; van Nimwegen, Erik; Daub, Carsten O; Balwierz, Piotr J; Irvine, Katharine M; Lassmann, Timo; Ravasi, Timothy; Hasegawa, Yuki; de Hoon, Michiel J L; Katayama, Shintaro; Schroder, Kate; Carninci, Piero; Tomaru, Yasuhiro; Kanamori-Katayama, Mutsumi; Kubosaki, Atsutaka; Akalin, Altuna; Ando, Yoshinari; Arner, Erik; Asada, Maki; Asahara, Hiroshi; Bailey, Timothy; Bajic, Vladimir B; Bauer, Denis; Beckhouse, Anthony G; Bertin, Nicolas; Björkegren, Johan; Brombacher, Frank; Bulger, Erika; Chalk, Alistair M; Chiba, Joe; Cloonan, Nicole; Dawe, Adam; Dostie, Josee; Engström, Pär G; Essack, Magbubah; Faulkner, Geoffrey J; Fink, J Lynn; Fredman, David; Fujimori, Ko; Furuno, Masaaki; Gojobori, Takashi; Gough, Julian; Grimmond, Sean M; Gustafsson, Mika; Hashimoto, Megumi; Hashimoto, Takehiro; Hatakeyama, Mariko; Heinzel, Susanne; Hide, Winston; Hofmann, Oliver; Hörnquist, Michael; Huminiecki, Lukasz; Ikeo, Kazuho; Imamoto, Naoko; Inoue, Satoshi; Inoue, Yusuke; Ishihara, Ryoko; Iwayanagi, Takao; Jacobsen, Anders; Kaur, Mandeep; Kawaji, Hideya; Kerr, Markus C; Kimura, Ryuichiro; Kimura, Syuhei; Kimura, Yasumasa; Kitano, Hiroaki; Koga, Hisashi; Kojima, Toshio; Kondo, Shinji; Konno, Takeshi; Krogh, Anders; Kruger, Adele; Kumar, Ajit; Lenhard, Boris; Lennartsson, Andreas; Lindow, Morten; Lizio, Marina; Macpherson, Cameron; Maeda, Norihiro; Maher, Christopher A; Maqungo, Monique; Mar, Jessica; Matigian, Nicholas A; Matsuda, Hideo; Mattick, John S; Meier, Stuart; Miyamoto, Sei; Miyamoto-Sato, Etsuko; Nakabayashi, Kazuhiko; Nakachi, Yutaka; Nakano, Mika; Nygaard, Sanne; Okayama, Toshitsugu; Okazaki, Yasushi; Okuda-Yabukami, Haruka; Orlando, Valerio; Otomo, Jun; Pachkov, Mikhail; Petrovsky, Nikolai; Plessy, Charles; Quackenbush, John; Radovanovic, Aleksandar; Rehli, Michael; Saito, Rintaro; Sandelin, Albin; Schmeier, Sebastian; Schönbach, Christian; Schwartz, Ariel S; Semple, Colin A; Sera, Miho; Severin, Jessica; Shirahige, Katsuhiko; Simons, Cas; St Laurent, George; Suzuki, Masanori; Suzuki, Takahiro; Sweet, Matthew J; Taft, Ryan J; Takeda, Shizu; Takenaka, Yoichi; Tan, Kai; Taylor, Martin S; Teasdale, Rohan D; Tegnér, Jesper; Teichmann, Sarah; Valen, Eivind; Wahlestedt, Claes; Waki, Kazunori; Waterhouse, Andrew; Wells, Christine A; Winther, Ole; Wu, Linda; Yamaguchi, Kazumi; Yanagawa, Hiroshi; Yasuda, Jun; Zavolan, Mihaela; Hume, David A; Arakawa, Takahiro; Fukuda, Shiro; Imamura, Kengo; Kai, Chikatoshi; Kaiho, Ai; Kawashima, Tsugumi; Kawazu, Chika; Kitazume, Yayoi; Kojima, Miki; Miura, Hisashi; Murakami, Kayoko; Murata, Mitsuyoshi; Ninomiya, Noriko; Nishiyori, Hiromi; Noma, Shohei; Ogawa, Chihiro; Sano, Takuma; Simon, Christophe; Tagami, Michihira; Takahashi, Yukari; Kawai, Jun; Hayashizaki, Yoshihide

2009-05-01

Using deep sequencing (deepCAGE), the FANTOM4 study measured the genome-wide dynamics of transcription-start-site usage in the human monocytic cell line THP-1 throughout a time course of growth arrest and differentiation. Modeling the expression dynamics in terms of predicted cis-regulatory sites, we identified the key transcription regulators, their time-dependent activities and target genes. Systematic siRNA knockdown of 52 transcription factors confirmed the roles of individual factors in the regulatory network. Our results indicate that cellular states are constrained by complex networks involving both positive and negative regulatory interactions among substantial numbers of transcription factors and that no single transcription factor is both necessary and sufficient to drive the differentiation process.

Dynamic Network Logistic Regression: A Logistic Choice Analysis of Inter- and Intra-Group Blog Citation Dynamics in the 2004 US Presidential Election

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Methods for analysis of network dynamics have seen great progress in the past decade. This article shows how Dynamic Network Logistic Regression techniques (a special case of the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models) can be used to implement decision theoretic models for network dynamics in a panel data context. We also provide practical heuristics for model building and assessment. We illustrate the power of these techniques by applying them to a dynamic blog network sampled during the 2004 US presidential election cycle. This is a particularly interesting case because it marks the debut of Internet-based media such as blogs and social networking web sites as institutionally recognized features of the American political landscape. Using a longitudinal sample of all Democratic National Convention/Republican National Convention–designated blog citation networks, we are able to test the influence of various strategic, institutional, and balance-theoretic mechanisms as well as exogenous factors such as seasonality and political events on the propensity of blogs to cite one another over time. Using a combination of deviance-based model selection criteria and simulation-based model adequacy tests, we identify the combination of processes that best characterizes the choice behavior of the contending blogs. PMID:24143060

An analytical model of dynamic sliding friction during impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arakawa, Kazuo

2017-01-01

Dynamic sliding friction was studied based on the angular velocity of a golf ball during an oblique impact. This study used the analytical model proposed for the dynamic sliding friction on lubricated and non-lubricated inclines. The contact area A and sliding velocity u of the ball during impact were used to describe the dynamic friction force Fd = λAu, where λ is a parameter related to the wear of the contact area. A comparison with experimental results revealed that the model agreed well with the observed changes in the angular velocity during impact, and λAu is qualitatively equivalent to the empirical relationship, μN + μη‧dA/dt, given by the product between the frictional coefficient μ and the contact force N, and the additional term related to factor η‧ for the surface condition and the time derivative of A.

Long-term prediction of fish growth under varying ambient temperature using a multiscale dynamic model

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Feed composition has a large impact on the growth of animals, particularly marine fish. We have developed a quantitative dynamic model that can predict the growth and body composition of marine fish for a given feed composition over a timespan of several months. The model takes into consideration the effects of environmental factors, particularly temperature, on growth, and it incorporates detailed kinetics describing the main metabolic processes (protein, lipid, and central metabolism) known to play major roles in growth and body composition. Results For validation, we compared our model's predictions with the results of several experimental studies. We showed that the model gives reliable predictions of growth, nutrient utilization (including amino acid retention), and body composition over a timespan of several months, longer than most of the previously developed predictive models. Conclusion We demonstrate that, despite the difficulties involved, multiscale models in biology can yield reasonable and useful results. The model predictions are reliable over several timescales and in the presence of strong temperature fluctuations, which are crucial factors for modeling marine organism growth. The model provides important improvements over existing models. PMID:19903354

SU-E-T-362: Enhanced Dynamic Wedge Output Factors for Varian 2300CD and the Case for a Reference Database

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Njeh, C

2015-06-15

Purpose: Dose inhomogeneity in treatment planning can be compensated using physical wedges. Enhanced dynamic wedges (EDW) were introduced by Varian to overcome some of the short comings of physical wedges. The objectives of this study were to measure EDW output factors for 6 MV and 20 MV photon energies for a Varian 2300CD. Secondly to review the literature in terms of published enhanced dynamic wedge output factors (EDWOF) for different Varian models and thereby adding credence to the case of the validity of reference databases. Methods: The enhanced dynamic wedge output factors were measured for the Varian 2300CD for bothmore » 6 MV and 20 MV photon energies. Twelve papers with published EDWOF for different Varian Linac models were found in the literature. Results: The EDWOF for 6 MV varied from 0.980 for a 5×5 cm 10 degree wedge to 0.424 for 20×20 cm 60 degree wedge. Similarly for 20 MV, the EDWOF varied from 0.986 for 5×5 cm 10 degree wedge to 0.529 for 20×20 cm 60 degree wedge. EDWOF are highly dependent on field size. Comparing our results with the published mean, we found an excellent agreement for 6 MV EDWOF with the percentage differences ranging from 0.01% to 0.57% with a mean of 0.03%. The coefficient of variation of published EDWOF ranged from 0.17% to 0.85% and 0.1% to 0.9% for the for 6 MV and 18MV photon energies respectively. This paper provides the first published EDWOF for 20 MV photon energy. In addition, we have provided the first compendium of EDWOFs for different Varian linac models. Conclusion: The consistency of EDWOF across models and institution provide further support that, a standard data set of basic photon and electron dosimetry could be established, as a guide for future commissioning, beam modeling and quality assurance purposes.« less

Dynamic vibrations in wind energy systems: Application to vertical axis wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabrouk, Imen Bel; El Hami, Abdelkhalak; Walha, Lassâad; Zghal, Bacem; Haddar, Mohamed

2017-02-01

Dynamic analysis of Darrieus turbine bevel spur gear subjected to transient aerodynamic loads is carried out in the present study. The aerodynamic torque is obtained by solving the two dimensional unsteady incompressible Navies Stocks equation with the k-ω shear stress transport turbulence model. The results are presented for several values of tip speed ratio. The two-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics model is validated with experimental results. The optimum tip speed ratio is achieved, giving the best overall performance. In this study, we developed a lamped mass dynamic model with 14 degrees of freedom. This model is excited by external and internal issues sources. The main factors of these excitations are the periodic fluctuations of the gear meshes' stiffness and the unsteady aerodynamic torque oscillations. The vibration responses are obtained in time and frequency domains. The originality of our work is the correlation between the complexity of the aerodynamic phenomenon and the non-stationary dynamics vibration of the mechanical gearing system. The effect of the rotational speed on the dynamic behavior of the Darrieus turbine is also discussed. The present study shows that the variation of rotor rotational speed directly affects the torque production. However, there is a small change in the dynamic vibration of the studied gearing system.

Modeling and tachometer feedback in the control of an experimental single link flexible structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia, Ephrahim; Inman, Daniel J.

1990-01-01

In this work a formulation for the modeling of a single link flexible structure will be introduced that includes the effects of dynamic interaction between the actuator and structure. These effects are the rotational modal participation factors for the structure's vibratory motion that occurs at the slewing axis. It will be shown, both theoretically and experimentally, that this dynamic interaction can be advantageous for vibration suppression of the flexible modes of the system during slewing positioning maneuvers.

σ and κ mesons as broad dynamical resonances in one-meson-exchange model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong Xiem, Ngo Thi; Shinmura, Shoji

2014-09-01

The existences of broad scalar σ (600) and κ (700) mesons have been discussed intensively in the experimental and theoretical studies on ππ and πK scatterings. By using chiral perturbation model, J. Oller, A. Gómez and J. R. Peláez confirmed the existence of these mesons as dynamical resonances. In meson-exchange models, their existence has not been established yet. In this talk, using the quasi-potential of meson-exchange model and Lippmann-Schwinger equation, we determine the T and S-matrices, from which we could find the positions of poles in physical amplitudes in the complex E-plane. With the full treatment of meson-meson interactions (ππ - πK - πη - ηη and πK - ηK) , for the first time, the existence of the scalar σ (600) and κ (700) mesons are confirmed in one-meson-exchange model. There are two kinds of form factors in our model: the monopole and the Gaussian. Our recent results show that the poles σ and κ appear at around 410 - i 540 MeV and 650 - i 20 MeV for monopole form factors, respectively. For Gaussian form factors, the poles σ and κ, respectively, are at 360 - i 510 MeV and 649 - i 190 MeV.

Granger causality revisited

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Bastos, André M.; Oswal, Ashwini; van Wijk, Bernadette; Richter, Craig; Litvak, Vladimir

2014-01-01

This technical paper offers a critical re-evaluation of (spectral) Granger causality measures in the analysis of biological timeseries. Using realistic (neural mass) models of coupled neuronal dynamics, we evaluate the robustness of parametric and nonparametric Granger causality. Starting from a broad class of generative (state-space) models of neuronal dynamics, we show how their Volterra kernels prescribe the second-order statistics of their response to random fluctuations; characterised in terms of cross-spectral density, cross-covariance, autoregressive coefficients and directed transfer functions. These quantities in turn specify Granger causality — providing a direct (analytic) link between the parameters of a generative model and the expected Granger causality. We use this link to show that Granger causality measures based upon autoregressive models can become unreliable when the underlying dynamics is dominated by slow (unstable) modes — as quantified by the principal Lyapunov exponent. However, nonparametric measures based on causal spectral factors are robust to dynamical instability. We then demonstrate how both parametric and nonparametric spectral causality measures can become unreliable in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, we show that this problem can be finessed by deriving spectral causality measures from Volterra kernels, estimated using dynamic causal modelling. PMID:25003817

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

Semi-Classical Models for Virtual Antiparticle Pairs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batchelor, David; Zukor, Dorothy (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Virtual particle-antiparticle pairs of massive elementary particle& are predicted in Quantum Field Theory (QFT) to appear from the vacuum and annihilate each other again within their Heisenberg lifetimes h/4mc(exp 2). In this work, semiclassical models of this process - for the cases of massive leptons, quarks, and the massive weak bosons W and Z - are constructed. It is shown that the dynamical lifetime of the particle- antiparticle system in each case equals the Heisenberg lifetime to good approximation, and obeys appropriate quantization conditions on the field fluctuation action. In other words, the dynamical lifetime of the semiclassical model agrees with QED and QCD to good approximation. But the formula for the dynamical lifetime in each model includes the force strength coupling constant (e in the lepton case, alpha(sup s) (q(exp 2)) in the quark cases), while the Heisenberg lifetime formula does not. Observing the agreement of the Heisenberg and dynamical lifetimes, we may derive the QED and QCD coupling constants in terms of h, c, and numerical factors only.

A stochastic spatial model of HIV dynamics with an asymmetric battle between the virus and the immune system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Hai; Shuai, J. W.

2010-04-01

A stochastic spatial model based on the Monte Carlo approach is developed to study the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We aim to propose a more detailed and realistic simulation frame by incorporating many important features of HIV dynamics, which include infections, replications and mutations of viruses, antigen recognitions, activations and proliferations of lymphocytes, and diffusions, encounters and interactions of virions and lymphocytes. Our model successfully reproduces the three-phase pattern observed in HIV infection, and the simulation results for the time distribution from infection to AIDS onset are also in good agreement with the clinical data. The interactions of viruses and the immune system in all the three phases are investigated. We assess the relative importance of various immune system components in the acute phase. The dynamics of how the two important factors, namely the viral diversity and the asymmetric battle between HIV and the immune system, result in AIDS are investigated in detail with the model.

Modeling the temporal dynamics of intertidal benthic infauna biomass with environmental factors: Impact assessment of land reclamation.

PubMed

Yang, Ye; Chui, Ting Fong May; Shen, Ping Ping; Yang, Yang; Gu, Ji Dong

2018-03-15

Anthropogenic activities such as land reclamation are threatening tidal marshes worldwide. This study's hypothesis is that land reclamation in a semi-enclosed bay alters the seasonal dynamics of intertidal benthic infauna, which is a key component in the tidal marsh ecosystem. Mai Po Tidal Marsh, Deep Bay, Pearl River Estuary, China was used as a case study to evaluate the hypothesis. Ecological models that simulate benthic biomass dynamics with governing environmental factors were developed, and various scenario experiments were conducted to evaluate the impact of reclamations. Environmental variables, selected from the areas of hydrodynamics, meteorology, and water quality based on correlation analysis, were used to generate Bayesian regression models for biomass prediction. The best-performing model, which considered average water age (i.e., a hydrodynamic indicator of estuarine circulation) in the previous month, salinity variation (i.e., standard deviation of salinity), and the total sunny period in the current month, captured well both seasonal and yearly trends in the benthic infauna observations from 2002 to 2008. This model was then used to simulate biomass dynamics with varying inputs of water age and salinity variation from coastal numerical models of different reclamation scenarios. The simulation results suggest that the reclamation in 2007 decreased the spatial and annual average benthic infauna biomass in the tidal marsh by 20%, which agreed with the 28% biomass decrease recorded by field survey. The range of biomass seasonal variation also decreased significantly from 2.1 to 230.5g/m 2 (without any reclamation) to 1.2 to 131.1g/m 2 (after the 2007 reclamation), which further demonstrates the substantial ecological impact of reclamation. The ecological model developed in this study could simulate seasonal biomass dynamics and evaluate the ecological impact of reclamation projects. It can therefore be applied to evaluate the ecological impact of coastal engineering projects for tidal marsh management, conservation, and restoration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconstruction of an Immune Dynamic Model to Simulate the Contrasting Role of Auxin and Cytokinin in Plant Immunity.

PubMed

Kaltdorf, Martin; Dandekar, Thomas; Naseem, Muhammad

2017-01-01

In order to increase our understanding of biological dependencies in plant immune signaling pathways, the known interactions involved in plant immune networks are modeled. This allows computational analysis to predict the functions of growth related hormones in plant-pathogen interaction. The SQUAD (Standardized Qualitative Dynamical Systems) algorithm first determines stable system states in the network and then use them to compute continuous dynamical system states. Our reconstructed Boolean model encompassing hormone immune networks of Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) and pathogenicity factors injected by model pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato DC3000 (Pst DC3000) can be exploited to determine the impact of growth hormones in plant immunity. We describe a detailed working protocol how to use the modified SQUAD-package by exemplifying the contrasting effects of auxin and cytokinins in shaping plant-pathogen interaction.

Discrete model of the olivo-cerebellar system: structure and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslennikov, O. V.; Nekorkin, V. I.

2012-08-01

We propose a discrete model of the olivo-cerebellar system. The model consists of three layers of interacting elements, namely, inferior olive neurons, Purkinje cells, and deep cerebellar nuclear neurons combined into a structure by axonal connections. Each element of the structure is described by a two-dimensional map with an individual set of parameters for each type of neurons. Dynamic properties of different types of neurons are described and spontaneous and stimulusinduced dynamics of the system is explored. Unlike the previously proposed models, this study takes into account the axonal interaction of neurons of different layers, as well as the interaction of the inferior olive neurons through electrical synapses with the property of plasticity. It is shown that the inclusion of these factors plays a significant role in the formation of spatio-temporal activity of the inferior olive neurons.

Lattice model simulation of interchain protein interactions and the folding dynamics and dimerization of the GCN4 Leucine zipper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yanxin; Chapagain, Prem P.; Parra, Jose L.; Gerstman, Bernard S.

2008-01-01

The highest level in the hierarchy of protein structure and folding is the formation of protein complexes through protein-protein interactions. We have made modifications to a well established computer lattice model to expand its applicability to two-protein dimerization and aggregation. Based on Brownian dynamics, we implement translation and rotation moves of two peptide chains relative to each other, in addition to the intrachain motions already present in the model. We use this two-chain model to study the folding dynamics of the yeast transcription factor GCN4 leucine zipper. The calculated heat capacity curves agree well with experimental measurements. Free energy landscapes and median first passage times for the folding process are calculated and elucidate experimentally measured characteristics such as the multistate nature of the dimerization process.

Dynamics of current sheath in a hollow electrode Z-pinch discharge using slug model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abd Al-Halim, Mohamed A.; Afify, M. S.

2017-03-01

The hollow electrode Z-pinch (HEZP) experiment is a new construction for the electromagnetic propulsion application in which the plasma is formed by the discharge between a plate and ring electrodes through which the plasma is propelled. The experimental results for 8 kV charging voltage shows that the peak discharge current is about 109 kA, which is in good agreement with the value obtained from the simulation in the slug model that simulates the sheath dynamics in the HEZP. The fitting of the discharge current from the slug model indicates that the total system inductance is 238 nH which is relatively a high static inductance accompanied with a deeper pinch depth indicating that the fitted anomalous resistance would be about 95 mΩ. The current and mass factors vary with the changing the gas pressure and the charging voltage. The current factor is between 0.4 and 0.5 on average which is relatively low value. The mass factor decreases by increasing the gas pressure indicating that the sheath is heavy to be driven by the magnetic pressure, which is also indicated from the decreases of the drive factor, hence the radial sheath velocity decreases. The plasma inductance and temperature increase with the increase of the drive factor while the minimum pinch radius decreases.

Feeding modes in stream salmonid population models: Is drift feeding the whole story?

Treesearch

Bret Harvey; Steve Railsback

2014-01-01

Drift-feeding models are essential components of broader models that link stream habitat to salmonid populations and community dynamics. But is an additional feeding mode needed for understanding and predicting salmonid population responses to streamflow and other environmental factors? We addressed this question by applying two versions of the individual-based model...

Analyzing the ecosystem carbon and hydrologic characteristics of forested wetland using a biogeochemical process model

Treesearch

Jianbo Cui; Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin

2005-01-01

A comprehensive biogeochemical model, Wetland-DNDC, was applied to analyze the carbon and hydrologic characteristics of forested wetland ecosystem at Minnesota (MN) and Florida (FL) sites. The model simulates the flows of carbon, energy, and water in forested wetlands. Modeled carbon dynamics depends on physiological plant factors, the size of plant pools,...

Effective Use of Multimedia Presentations to Maximize Learning within High School Science Classrooms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapp, Eric

2013-01-01

This research used an evidenced-based experimental 2 x 2 factorial design General Linear Model with Repeated Measures Analysis of Covariance (RMANCOVA). For this analysis, time served as the within-subjects factor while treatment group (i.e., static and signaling, dynamic and signaling, static without signaling, and dynamic without signaling)…

Simulation of longitudinal dynamics of a freight train operating through a car dumper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, R.; Sakalo, A.; Yazykov, V.; Shamdani, A.; Bowey, R.; Wakeling, C.

2016-06-01

A heavy haul train and car dumper model was created to analyse train longitudinal dynamics during dumping. Influence of such factors as performance curve of draft gears, total free slack in couplers, operating mode of train positioner and braking of last two cars of train on the in-train forces was considered.

Local Inflammation, Dissemination and Coalescence of Lesions Are Key for the Progression toward Active Tuberculosis: The Bubble Model

PubMed Central

Prats, Clara; Vilaplana, Cristina; Valls, Joaquim; Marzo, Elena; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2016-01-01

The evolution of a tuberculosis (TB) infection toward active disease is driven by a combination of factors mostly related to the host response. The equilibrium between control of the bacillary load and the pathology generated is crucial as regards preventing the growth and proliferation of TB lesions. In addition, some experimental evidence suggests an important role of both local endogenous reinfection and the coalescence of neighboring lesions. Herein we propose a mathematical model that captures the essence of these factors by defining three hypotheses: (i) lesions grow logistically due to the inflammatory reaction; (ii) new lesions can appear as a result of extracellular bacilli or infected macrophages that escape from older lesions; and (iii) lesions can merge when they are close enough. This model was implemented in Matlab to simulate the dynamics of several lesions in a 3D space. It was also fitted to available microscopy data from infected C3HeB/FeJ mice, an animal model of active TB that reacts against Mycobacterium tuberculosis with an exaggerated inflammatory response. The results of the simulations show the dynamics observed experimentally, namely an initial increase in the number of lesions followed by fluctuations, and an exponential increase in the mean area of the lesions. In addition, further analysis of experimental and simulation results show a strong coincidence of the area distributions of lesions at day 21, thereby highlighting the consistency of the model. Three simulation series removing each one of the hypothesis corroborate their essential role in the dynamics observed. These results demonstrate that three local factors, namely an exaggerated inflammatory response, an endogenous reinfection, and a coalescence of lesions, are needed in order to progress toward active TB. The failure of one of these factors stops induction of the disease. This mathematical model may be used as a basis for developing strategies to stop the progression of infection toward disease in human lungs. PMID:26870005

Local Inflammation, Dissemination and Coalescence of Lesions Are Key for the Progression toward Active Tuberculosis: The Bubble Model.

PubMed

Prats, Clara; Vilaplana, Cristina; Valls, Joaquim; Marzo, Elena; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2016-01-01

The evolution of a tuberculosis (TB) infection toward active disease is driven by a combination of factors mostly related to the host response. The equilibrium between control of the bacillary load and the pathology generated is crucial as regards preventing the growth and proliferation of TB lesions. In addition, some experimental evidence suggests an important role of both local endogenous reinfection and the coalescence of neighboring lesions. Herein we propose a mathematical model that captures the essence of these factors by defining three hypotheses: (i) lesions grow logistically due to the inflammatory reaction; (ii) new lesions can appear as a result of extracellular bacilli or infected macrophages that escape from older lesions; and (iii) lesions can merge when they are close enough. This model was implemented in Matlab to simulate the dynamics of several lesions in a 3D space. It was also fitted to available microscopy data from infected C3HeB/FeJ mice, an animal model of active TB that reacts against Mycobacterium tuberculosis with an exaggerated inflammatory response. The results of the simulations show the dynamics observed experimentally, namely an initial increase in the number of lesions followed by fluctuations, and an exponential increase in the mean area of the lesions. In addition, further analysis of experimental and simulation results show a strong coincidence of the area distributions of lesions at day 21, thereby highlighting the consistency of the model. Three simulation series removing each one of the hypothesis corroborate their essential role in the dynamics observed. These results demonstrate that three local factors, namely an exaggerated inflammatory response, an endogenous reinfection, and a coalescence of lesions, are needed in order to progress toward active TB. The failure of one of these factors stops induction of the disease. This mathematical model may be used as a basis for developing strategies to stop the progression of infection toward disease in human lungs.

Multiphase Modelling of Bacteria Removal in a CSO Stream

EPA Science Inventory

Indicator bacteria are an important determinant of water quality in many water resources management situations. They are also one of the more complex phenomena to model and predict. Sources abound, the populations are dynamic and influenced by many factors, and mobility through...

[Model for unplanned self extubation of ICU patients using system dynamics approach].

PubMed

Song, Yu Gil; Yun, Eun Kyoung

2015-04-01

In this study a system dynamics methodology was used to identify correlation and nonlinear feedback structure among factors affecting unplanned extubation (UE) of ICU patients and to construct and verify a simulation model. Factors affecting UE were identified through a theoretical background established by reviewing literature and preceding studies and referencing various statistical data. Related variables were decided through verification of content validity by an expert group. A causal loop diagram (CLD) was made based on the variables. Stock & Flow modeling using Vensim PLE Plus Version 6.0 b was performed to establish a model for UE. Based on the literature review and expert verification, 18 variables associated with UE were identified and CLD was prepared. From the prepared CLD, a model was developed by converting to the Stock & Flow Diagram. Results of the simulation showed that patient stress, patient in an agitated state, restraint application, patient movability, and individual intensive nursing were variables giving the greatest effect to UE probability. To verify agreement of the UE model with real situations, simulation with 5 cases was performed. Equation check and sensitivity analysis on TIME STEP were executed to validate model integrity. Results show that identification of a proper model enables prediction of UE probability. This prediction allows for adjustment of related factors, and provides basic data do develop nursing interventions to decrease UE.

Dynamic transitions in a model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Čupić, Željko; Marković, Vladimir M.; Maćešić, Stevan; Stanojević, Ana; Damjanović, Svetozar; Vukojević, Vladana; Kolar-Anić, Ljiljana

2016-03-01

Dynamic properties of a nonlinear five-dimensional stoichiometric model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis were systematically investigated. Conditions under which qualitative transitions between dynamic states occur are determined by independently varying the rate constants of all reactions that constitute the model. Bifurcation types were further characterized using continuation algorithms and scale factor methods. Regions of bistability and transitions through supercritical Andronov-Hopf and saddle loop bifurcations were identified. Dynamic state analysis predicts that the HPA axis operates under basal (healthy) physiological conditions close to an Andronov-Hopf bifurcation. Dynamic properties of the stress-control axis have not been characterized experimentally, but modelling suggests that the proximity to a supercritical Andronov-Hopf bifurcation can give the HPA axis both, flexibility to respond to external stimuli and adjust to new conditions and stability, i.e., the capacity to return to the original dynamic state afterwards, which is essential for maintaining homeostasis. The analysis presented here reflects the properties of a low-dimensional model that succinctly describes neurochemical transformations underlying the HPA axis. However, the model accounts correctly for a number of experimentally observed properties of the stress-response axis. We therefore regard that the presented analysis is meaningful, showing how in silico investigations can be used to guide the experimentalists in understanding how the HPA axis activity changes under chronic disease and/or specific pharmacological manipulations.

DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

PubMed

Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; van Baal, Pieter; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Mackenbach, Johan P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C

2012-01-01

Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on epidemiologic evidence.

Dynamical models of happiness with fractional order

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lei; Xu, Shiyun; Yang, Jianying

2010-03-01

This present study focuses on a dynamical model of happiness described through fractional-order differential equations. By categorizing people of different personality and different impact factor of memory (IFM) with different set of model parameters, it is demonstrated via numerical simulations that such fractional-order models could exhibit various behaviors with and without external circumstance. Moreover, control and synchronization problems of this model are discussed, which correspond to the control of emotion as well as emotion synchronization in real life. This study is an endeavor to combine the psychological knowledge with control problems and system theories, and some implications for psychotherapy as well as hints of a personal approach to life are both proposed.

An online spatiotemporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung (Taiwan).

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Angulo, José M; Cheng, Ming-Hung; Wu, Jiaping; Christakos, George

2014-05-01

The emergence and re-emergence of disease epidemics is a complex question that may be influenced by diverse factors, including the space-time dynamics of human populations, environmental conditions, and associated uncertainties. This study proposes a stochastic framework to integrate space-time dynamics in the form of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, together with uncertain disease observations, into a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) framework. The resulting model (BME-SIR) can be used to predict space-time disease spread. Specifically, it was applied to obtain a space-time prediction of the dengue fever (DF) epidemic that took place in Kaohsiung City (Taiwan) during 2002. In implementing the model, the SIR parameters were continually updated and information on new cases of infection was incorporated. The results obtained show that the proposed model is rigorous to user-specified initial values of unknown model parameters, that is, transmission and recovery rates. In general, this model provides a good characterization of the spatial diffusion of the DF epidemic, especially in the city districts proximal to the location of the outbreak. Prediction performance may be affected by various factors, such as virus serotypes and human intervention, which can change the space-time dynamics of disease diffusion. The proposed BME-SIR disease prediction model can provide government agencies with a valuable reference for the timely identification, control, and prevention of DF spread in space and time. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, Thomas T.; Sheu, Rong-Shyang; Bowers, James F.; Sykes, R. Ian; Dodd, Gregory C.; Henn, Douglas S.

2002-05-01

Ensemble simulations made using a coupled atmospheric dynamic model and a probabilistic Lagrangian puff dispersion model were employed in a forensic analysis of the transport and dispersion of a toxic gas that may have been released near Al Muthanna, Iraq, during the Gulf War. The ensemble study had two objectives, the first of which was to determine the sensitivity of the calculated dosage fields to the choices that must be made about the configuration of the atmospheric dynamic model. In this test, various choices were used for model physics representations and for the large-scale analyses that were used to construct the model initial and boundary conditions. The second study objective was to examine the dispersion model's ability to use ensemble inputs to predict dosage probability distributions. Here, the dispersion model was used with the ensemble mean fields from the individual atmospheric dynamic model runs, including the variability in the individual wind fields, to generate dosage probabilities. These are compared with the explicit dosage probabilities derived from the individual runs of the coupled modeling system. The results demonstrate that the specific choices made about the dynamic-model configuration and the large-scale analyses can have a large impact on the simulated dosages. For example, the area near the source that is exposed to a selected dosage threshold varies by up to a factor of 4 among members of the ensemble. The agreement between the explicit and ensemble dosage probabilities is relatively good for both low and high dosage levels. Although only one ensemble was considered in this study, the encouraging results suggest that a probabilistic dispersion model may be of value in quantifying the effects of uncertainties in a dynamic-model ensemble on dispersion model predictions of atmospheric transport and dispersion.

Coupling Cellular Automata Land Use Change with Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, L.; Duffy, C.

2017-12-01

There has been extensive research on LUC modeling with broad applications to simulating urban growth and changing demographic patterns across multiple scales. The importance of land conversion is a critical issue in watershed scale studies and is generally not treated in most watershed modeling approaches. In this study we apply spatially explicit hydrologic and landuse change models and the Conestoga Watershed in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) partitions the water balance in space and time over the urban catchment, the coupled Cellular Automata Land Use Change model (CALUC) dynamically simulates the evolution of land use classes based on physical measures associated with population change and land use demand factors. The CALUC model is based on iteratively applying discrete rules to each individual spatial cell. The essence the CA modeling involves calculation of the Transition Potential (TP) for conversion of a grid cell from one land use class to another. This potential includes five factors: random perturbation, suitability, accessibility, neighborhood effect, inertia effects and zonal factors. In spite of simplicity, this CALUC model has been shown to be very effective for simulating LUC leading to the emergence of complex spatial patterns. The components of TP are derived from present land use data for landuse reanalysis and for realistic future land use scenarios. For the CALUC we use early-settlement (circa 1790) initial land class values and final or present-day (2010) land classes to calibrate the model. CALUC- PIHM dynamically simulates the hydrologic response of conversion from pre-settlement to present landuse. The simulations highlight the capability and value of dynamic coupling of catchment hydrology with land use change over long time periods. Analysis of the simulation uses various metrics such as the distributed water balance, flow duration curves, etc. to show how deforestation, urbanization and agricultural land development interact for the period 1790- present.

How can we reduce phosphorus export from lowland polders? Implications from a sensitivity analysis of a coupled model.

PubMed

Huang, Jiacong; Gao, Junfeng; Yan, Renhua

2016-08-15

Phosphorus (P) export from lowland polders has caused severe water pollution. Numerical models are an important resource that help water managers control P export. This study coupled three models, i.e., Phosphorus Dynamic model for Polders (PDP), Integrated Catchments model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P) and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), to describe the P dynamics in polders. Based on the coupled models and a dataset collected from Polder Jian in China, sensitivity analysis were carried out to analyze the cause-effect relationships between environmental factors and P export from Polder Jian. The sensitivity analysis results showed that P export from Polder Jian were strongly affected by air temperature, precipitation and fertilization. Proper fertilization management should be a strategic priority for reducing P export from Polder Jian. This study demonstrated the success of model coupling, and its application in investigating potential strategies to support pollution control in polder systems. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Mathematical Model of Demand-Supply Dynamics with Collectability and Saturation Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y. Charles; Yang, Hong

We introduce a mathematical model on the dynamics of demand and supply incorporating collectability and saturation factors. Our analysis shows that when the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, there is chaos in the demand-supply dynamics. Our numerical simulation shows that such a chaos is not an attractor (i.e. dynamics is not approaching the chaos), instead a periodic attractor (of period-3 under the Poincaré period map) exists near the chaos, and coexists with another periodic attractor (of period-1 under the Poincaré period map) near the market equilibrium. Outside the basins of attraction of the two periodic attractors, the dynamics approaches infinity indicating market irrational exuberance or flash crash. The period-3 attractor represents the product’s market cycle of growth and recession, while period-1 attractor near the market equilibrium represents the regular fluctuation of the product’s market. Thus our model captures more market phenomena besides Marshall’s market equilibrium. When the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, a three leaf danger zone exists where the basins of attraction of all attractors intertwine and fractal basin boundaries are formed. Small perturbations in the danger zone can lead to very different attractors. That is, small perturbations in the danger zone can cause the market to experience oscillation near market equilibrium, large growth and recession cycle, and irrational exuberance or flash crash.

Factors influencing analysis of complex cognitive tasks: a framework and example from industrial process control.

PubMed

Prietula, M J; Feltovich, P J; Marchak, F

2000-01-01

We propose that considering four categories of task factors can facilitate knowledge elicitation efforts in the analysis of complex cognitive tasks: materials, strategies, knowledge characteristics, and goals. A study was conducted to examine the effects of altering aspects of two of these task categories on problem-solving behavior across skill levels: materials and goals. Two versions of an applied engineering problem were presented to expert, intermediate, and novice participants. Participants were to minimize the cost of running a steam generation facility by adjusting steam generation levels and flows. One version was cast in the form of a dynamic, computer-based simulation that provided immediate feedback on flows, costs, and constraint violations, thus incorporating key variable dynamics of the problem context. The other version was cast as a static computer-based model, with no dynamic components, cost feedback, or constraint checking. Experts performed better than the other groups across material conditions, and, when required, the presentation of the goal assisted the experts more than the other groups. The static group generated richer protocols than the dynamic group, but the dynamic group solved the problem in significantly less time. Little effect of feedback was found for intermediates, and none for novices. We conclude that demonstrating differences in performance in this task requires different materials than explicating underlying knowledge that leads to performance. We also conclude that substantial knowledge is required to exploit the information yielded by the dynamic form of the task or the explicit solution goal. This simple model can help to identify the contextual factors that influence elicitation and specification of knowledge, which is essential in the engineering of joint cognitive systems.

A mesoscopic simulation of static and dynamic wetting using many-body dissipative particle dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbani, Najmeh; Pishevar, Ahmadreza

2018-01-01

A many-body dissipative particle dynamics simulation is applied here to pave the way for investigating the behavior of mesoscale droplets after impact on horizontal solid substrates. First, hydrophobic and hydrophilic substrates are simulated through tuning the solid-liquid interfacial interaction parameters of an innovative conservative force model. The static contact angles are calculated on homogeneous and several patterned surfaces and compared with the predicted values by the Cassie's law in order to verify the model. The results properly evaluate the amount of increase in surface superhydrophobicity as a result of surface patterning. Then drop impact phenomenon is studied by calculating the spreading factor and dimensionless height versus dimensionless time and the comparisons made between the results and the experimental values for three different static contact angles. The results show the capability of the procedure in calculating the amount of maximum spreading factor, which is a significant concept in ink-jet printing and coating process.

Using Student Ratings to Measure Quality of Teaching in Six European Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyriakides, Leonidas; Creemers, Bert P. M.; Panayiotou, Anastasia; Vanlaar, Gudrun; Pfeifer, Michael; Cankar, Gašper; McMahon, Léan

2014-01-01

This paper argues for the value of using student ratings to measure quality of teaching. An international study to test the validity of the dynamic model of educational effectiveness was conducted. At classroom level, the model consists of eight factors relating to teacher behaviour: orientation, structuring, questioning, teaching modelling,…

Comparative recruitment dynamics of Alewife and Bloater in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Riley, Stephen C.

2014-01-01

The predictive power of recruitment models often relies on the identification and quantification of external variables, in addition to stock size. In theory, the identification of climatic, biotic, or demographic influences on reproductive success assists fisheries management by identifying factors that have a direct and reproducible influence on the population dynamics of a target species. More often, models are constructed as one-time studies of a single population whose results are not revisited when further data become available. Here, we present results from stock recruitment models for Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The factors that explain variation in Bloater recruitment were remarkably consistent across populations and with previous studies that found Bloater recruitment to be linked to population demographic patterns in Lake Michigan. Conversely, our models were poor predictors of Alewife recruitment in Lake Huron but did show some agreement with previously published models from Lake Michigan. Overall, our results suggest that external predictors of fish recruitment are difficult to discern using traditional fisheries models, and reproducing the results from previous studies may be difficult particularly at low population sizes.

A Hybrid Methodology for Modeling Risk of Adverse Events in Complex Health-Care Settings.

PubMed

Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali; Dierks, Meghan

2017-03-01

In spite of increased attention to quality and efforts to provide safe medical care, adverse events (AEs) are still frequent in clinical practice. Reports from various sources indicate that a substantial number of hospitalized patients suffer treatment-caused injuries while in the hospital. While risk cannot be entirely eliminated from health-care activities, an important goal is to develop effective and durable mitigation strategies to render the system "safer." In order to do this, though, we must develop models that comprehensively and realistically characterize the risk. In the health-care domain, this can be extremely challenging due to the wide variability in the way that health-care processes and interventions are executed and also due to the dynamic nature of risk in this particular domain. In this study, we have developed a generic methodology for evaluating dynamic changes in AE risk in acute care hospitals as a function of organizational and nonorganizational factors, using a combination of modeling formalisms. First, a system dynamics (SD) framework is used to demonstrate how organizational-level and policy-level contributions to risk evolve over time, and how policies and decisions may affect the general system-level contribution to AE risk. It also captures the feedback of organizational factors and decisions over time and the nonlinearities in these feedback effects. SD is a popular approach to understanding the behavior of complex social and economic systems. It is a simulation-based, differential equation modeling tool that is widely used in situations where the formal model is complex and an analytical solution is very difficult to obtain. Second, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) framework is used to represent patient-level factors and also physician-level decisions and factors in the management of an individual patient, which contribute to the risk of hospital-acquired AE. BBNs are networks of probabilities that can capture probabilistic relations between variables and contain historical information about their relationship, and are powerful tools for modeling causes and effects in many domains. The model is intended to support hospital decisions with regard to staffing, length of stay, and investments in safety, which evolve dynamically over time. The methodology has been applied in modeling the two types of common AEs: pressure ulcers and vascular-catheter-associated infection, and the models have been validated with eight years of clinical data and use of expert opinion. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

SISL and SIRL: Two knowledge dissemination models with leader nodes on cooperative learning networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingjing; Zhang, Yumei; Man, Jiayu; Zhou, Yun; Wu, Xiaojun

2017-02-01

Cooperative learning is one of the most effective teaching methods, which has been widely used. Students' mutual contact forms a cooperative learning network in this process. Our previous research demonstrated that the cooperative learning network has complex characteristics. This study aims to investigating the dynamic spreading process of the knowledge in the cooperative learning network and the inspiration of leaders in this process. To this end, complex network transmission dynamics theory is utilized to construct the knowledge dissemination model of a cooperative learning network. Based on the existing epidemic models, we propose a new susceptible-infected-susceptible-leader (SISL) model that considers both students' forgetting and leaders' inspiration, and a susceptible-infected-removed-leader (SIRL) model that considers students' interest in spreading and leaders' inspiration. The spreading threshold λcand its impact factors are analyzed. Then, numerical simulation and analysis are delivered to reveal the dynamic transmission mechanism of knowledge and leaders' role. This work is of great significance to cooperative learning theory and teaching practice. It also enriches the theory of complex network transmission dynamics.

Understanding the psychology of bullying: Moving toward a social-ecological diathesis-stress model.

PubMed

Swearer, Susan M; Hymel, Shelley

2015-01-01

With growing recognition that bullying is a complex phenomenon, influenced by multiple factors, research findings to date have been understood within a social-ecological framework. Consistent with this model, we review research on the known correlates and contributing factors in bullying/victimization within the individual, family, peer group, school and community. Recognizing the fluid and dynamic nature of involvement in bullying, we then expand on this model and consider research on the consequences of bullying involvement, as either victim or bully or both, and propose a social-ecological, diathesis-stress model for understanding the bullying dynamic and its impact. Specifically, we frame involvement in bullying as a stressful life event for both children who bully and those who are victimized, serving as a catalyst for a diathesis-stress connection between bullying, victimization, and psychosocial difficulties. Against this backdrop, we suggest that effective bullying prevention and intervention efforts must take into account the complexities of the human experience, addressing both individual characteristics and history of involvement in bullying, risk and protective factors, and the contexts in which bullying occurs, in order to promote healthier social relationships. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Spatiotemporal microbiota dynamics from quantitative in vitro and in silico models of the gut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwa, Terence

The human gut harbors a dynamic microbial community whose composition bears great importance for the health of the host. Here, we investigate how colonic physiology impacts bacterial growth behaviors, which ultimately dictate the gut microbiota composition. Combining measurements of bacterial growth physiology with analysis of published data on human physiology into a quantitative modeling framework, we show how hydrodynamic forces in the colon, in concert with other physiological factors, determine the abundances of the major bacterial phyla in the gut. Our model quantitatively explains the observed variation of microbiota composition among healthy adults, and predicts colonic water absorption (manifested as stool consistency) and nutrient intake to be two key factors determining this composition. The model further reveals that both factors, which have been identified in recent correlative studies, exert their effects through the same mechanism: changes in colonic pH that differentially affect the growth of different bacteria. Our findings show that a predictive and mechanistic understanding of microbial ecology in the human gut is possible, and offer the hope for the rational design of intervention strategies to actively control the microbiota. This work is supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Markov model of the loan portfolio dynamics considering influence of management and external economic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhalkina, Yana; Timofeeva, Galina

2016-12-01

Mathematical model of loan portfolio in the form of a controlled Markov chain with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that coefficients of migration matrix depend on corrective actions and external factors. Corrective actions include process of receiving applications, interaction with existing solvent and insolvent clients. External factors are macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and unemployment rates, exchange rates, consumer price indices, etc. Changes in corrective actions adjust the intensity of transitions in the migration matrix. The mathematical model for forecasting the credit portfolio structure taking into account a cumulative impact of internal and external changes is obtained.

Cyclic dynamics in a simple vertebrate predator-prey community.

PubMed

Gilg, Olivier; Hanski, Ilkka; Sittler, Benoît

2003-10-31

The collared lemming in the high-Arctic tundra in Greenland is preyed upon by four species of predators that show marked differences in the numbers of lemmings each consumes and in the dependence of their dynamics on lemming density. A predator prey model based on the field-estimated predator responses robustly predicts 4-year periodicity in lemming dynamics, in agreement with long-term empirical data. There is no indication in the field that food or space limits lemming population growth, nor is there need in the model to consider those factors. The cyclic dynamics are driven by a 1-year delay in the numerical response of the stoat and stabilized by strongly density-dependent predation by the arctic fox, the snowy owl, and the long-tailed skua.

Intermittent dynamics in complex systems driven to depletion.

PubMed

Escobar, Juan V; Pérez Castillo, Isaac

2018-03-19

When complex systems are driven to depletion by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To understand and ultimately be able to predict such dynamics, we propose an underlying mechanism based on sharp thresholds of a local generalized energy density that naturally leads to negative feedback. We find a transition from a continuous regime to an intermittent one, in which avalanches can be predicted despite the stochastic nature of the process. This model may have applications in many natural and social complex systems where a rapid depletion of resources or generalized energy drives the dynamics. In particular, we show how this model accurately describes the time evolution and avalanches present in a real social system.

Pathology Dynamics Predict Spinal Cord Injury Therapeutic Success

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Cassie S.

2008-01-01

Abstract Secondary injury, the complex cascade of cellular events following spinal cord injury (SCI), is a major source of post-insult neuron death. Experimental work has focused on the details of individual factors or mechanisms that contribute to secondary injury, but little is known about the interactions among factors leading to the overall pathology dynamics that underlie its propagation. Prior hypotheses suggest that the pathology is dominated by interactions, with therapeutic success lying in combinations of neuroprotective treatments. In this study, we provide the first comprehensive, system-level characterization of the entire secondary injury process using a novel relational model methodology that aggregates the findings of ~250 experimental studies. Our quantitative examination of the overall pathology dynamics suggests that, while the pathology is initially dominated by “fire-like,” rate-dependent interactions, it quickly switches to a “flood-like,” accumulation-dependent process with contributing factors being largely independent. Our evaluation of ~20,000 potential single and combinatorial treatments indicates this flood-like pathology results in few highly influential factors at clinically realistic treatment time frames, with multi-factor treatments being merely additive rather than synergistic in reducing neuron death. Our findings give new fundamental insight into the understanding of the secondary injury pathology as a whole, provide direction for alternative therapeutic strategies, and suggest that ultimate success in treating SCI lies in the pursuit of pathology dynamics in addition to individually involved factors. PMID:19125684

The structure of molten CuCl: Reverse Monte Carlo modeling with high-energy X-ray diffraction data and molecular dynamics of a polarizable ion model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alcaraz, Olga; Trullàs, Joaquim, E-mail: quim.trullas@upc.edu; Tahara, Shuta

2016-09-07

The results of the structural properties of molten copper chloride are reported from high-energy X-ray diffraction measurements, reverse Monte Carlo modeling method, and molecular dynamics simulations using a polarizable ion model. The simulated X-ray structure factor reproduces all trends observed experimentally, in particular the shoulder at around 1 Å{sup −1} related to intermediate range ordering, as well as the partial copper-copper correlations from the reverse Monte Carlo modeling, which cannot be reproduced by using a simple rigid ion model. It is shown that the shoulder comes from intermediate range copper-copper correlations caused by the polarized chlorides.

Integrated modeling and analysis of the multiple electromechanical couplings for the direct driven feed system in machine tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaojun; Lu, Dun; Liu, Hui; Zhao, Wanhua

2018-06-01

The complicated electromechanical coupling phenomena due to different kinds of causes have significant influences on the dynamic precision of the direct driven feed system in machine tools. In this paper, a novel integrated modeling and analysis method of the multiple electromechanical couplings for the direct driven feed system in machine tools is presented. At first, four different kinds of electromechanical coupling phenomena in the direct driven feed system are analyzed systematically. Then a novel integrated modeling and analysis method of the electromechanical coupling which is influenced by multiple factors is put forward. In addition, the effects of multiple electromechanical couplings on the dynamic precision of the feed system and their main influencing factors are compared and discussed, respectively. Finally, the results of modeling and analysis are verified by the experiments. It finds out that multiple electromechanical coupling loops, which are overlapped and influenced by each other, are the main reasons of the displacement fluctuations in the direct driven feed system.

Dynamic thermal analysis of a concentrated photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avrett, John T., II; Cain, Stephen C.; Pochet, Michael

2012-02-01

Concentrated photovoltaic (PV) technology represents a growing market in the field of terrestrial solar energy production. As the demand for renewable energy technologies increases, further importance is placed upon the modeling, design, and simulation of these systems. Given the U.S. Air Force cultural shift towards energy awareness and conservation, several concentrated PV systems have been installed on Air Force installations across the country. However, there has been a dearth of research within the Air Force devoted to understanding these systems in order to possibly improve the existing technologies. This research presents a new model for a simple concentrated PV system. This model accurately determines the steady state operating temperature as a function of the concentration factor for the optical part of the concentrated PV system, in order to calculate the optimum concentration that maximizes power output and efficiency. The dynamic thermal model derived is validated experimentally using a commercial polysilicon solar cell, and is shown to accurately predict the steady state temperature and ideal concentration factor.

Virtual water trade patterns in relation to environmental and socioeconomic factors: A case study for Tunisia.

PubMed

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten S; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2018-02-01

Growing water demands put increasing pressure on local water resources, especially in water-short countries. Virtual water trade can play a key role in filling the gap between local demand and supply of water-intensive commodities. This study aims to analyse the dynamics in virtual water trade of Tunisia in relation to environmental and socio-economic factors such as GDP, irrigated land, precipitation, population and water scarcity. The water footprint of crop production is estimated using AquaCrop for six crops over the period 1981-2010. Net virtual water import (NVWI) is quantified at yearly basis. Regression models are used to investigate dynamics in NVWI in relation to the selected factors. The results show that NVWI during the study period for the selected crops is not influenced by blue water scarcity. NVWI correlates in two alternative models to either population and precipitation (model I) or to GDP and irrigated area (model II). The models are better in explaining NVWI of staple crops (wheat, barley, potatoes) than NVWI of cash crops (dates, olives, tomatoes). Using model I, we are able to explain both trends and inter-annual variability for rain-fed crops. Model II performs better for irrigated crops and is able to explain trends significantly; no significant relation is found, however, with variables hypothesized to represent inter-annual variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of elastomeric mount using vibration power flow and transmissibility methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arib Rejab, M. N.; Shukor, S. A. Abdul; Sofian, M. R. Mohd; Inayat-Hussain, J. I.; Nazirah, A.; Asyraf, I.

2017-10-01

This paper presents the results of an experimental work to determine the dynamic stiffness and loss factor of elastomeric mounts. It also presents the results of theoretical analysis to determine the transmissibility and vibration power flow of these mounts, which are associated with their contribution to structure-borne noise. Four types of elastomeric mounts were considered, where three of them were made from green natural rubber material (SMR CV60, Ekoprena and Pureprena) and one made from petroleum based synthetic rubber (EPDM). In order to determine the dynamic stiffness and loss factor of these elastomeric mounts, dynamic tests were conducted using MTS 830 Elastomer Test System. Dynamic stiffness and loss factor of these mounts were measured for a range of frequency between 5 Hz and 150 Hz, and with a dynamic amplitude of 0.2 mm (p-p). The transmissibility and vibration power flow were determined based on a simple 2-Degree-of-Freedom model representing a vibration isolation system with a flexible receiver. This model reprsents the three main parts of a vehicle, which are the powertrain and engine mounting, the flexible structure and the floor of the vehicle. The results revealed that synthetic rubber (EPDM) was only effective at high frequency region. Natural rubber (Ekoprena), on the other hand, was found to be effective at both low and high frequency regions due to its low transmissibility at resonant frequency and its ability to damp the resonance. The estimated structure-borne noise emission showed that Ekoprena has a lower contribution to structure-borne noise as compared to the other types of elastomeric mounts.

Equilibrium fractionation of H and O isotopes in water from path integral molecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinilla, Carlos; Blanchard, Marc; Balan, Etienne; Ferlat, Guillaume; Vuilleumier, Rodolphe; Mauri, Francesco

2014-06-01

The equilibrium fractionation factor between two phases is of importance for the understanding of many planetary and environmental processes. Although thermodynamic equilibrium can be achieved between minerals at high temperature, many natural processes involve reactions between liquids or aqueous solutions and solids. For crystals, the fractionation factor α can be theoretically determined using a statistical thermodynamic approach based on the vibrational properties of the phases. These calculations are mostly performed in the harmonic approximation, using empirical or ab-initio force fields. In the case of aperiodic and dynamic systems such as liquids or solutions, similar calculations can be done using finite-size molecular clusters or snapshots obtained from molecular dynamics (MD) runs. It is however difficult to assess the effect of these approximate models on the isotopic fractionation properties. In this work we present a systematic study of the calculation of the D/H and 18O/16O equilibrium fractionation factors in water for the liquid/vapour and ice/vapour phases using several levels of theory within the simulations. Namely, we use a thermodynamic integration approach based on Path Integral MD calculations (PIMD) and an empirical potential model of water. Compared with standard MD, PIMD takes into account quantum effects in the thermodynamic modeling of systems and the exact fractionation factor for a given potential can be obtained. We compare these exact results with those of modeling strategies usually used, which involve the mapping of the quantum system on its harmonic counterpart. The results show the importance of including configurational disorder for the estimation of isotope fractionation in liquid phases. In addition, the convergence of the fractionation factor as a function of parameters such as the size of the simulated system and multiple isotope substitution is analyzed, showing that isotope fractionation is essentially a local effect in the investigated system.

Mobile robot dynamic path planning based on improved genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yong; Zhou, Heng; Wang, Ying

2017-08-01

In dynamic unknown environment, the dynamic path planning of mobile robots is a difficult problem. In this paper, a dynamic path planning method based on genetic algorithm is proposed, and a reward value model is designed to estimate the probability of dynamic obstacles on the path, and the reward value function is applied to the genetic algorithm. Unique coding techniques reduce the computational complexity of the algorithm. The fitness function of the genetic algorithm fully considers three factors: the security of the path, the shortest distance of the path and the reward value of the path. The simulation results show that the proposed genetic algorithm is efficient in all kinds of complex dynamic environments.

A longitudinal twin study of physical aggression during early childhood: evidence for a developmentally dynamic genome.

PubMed

Lacourse, E; Boivin, M; Brendgen, M; Petitclerc, A; Girard, A; Vitaro, F; Paquin, S; Ouellet-Morin, I; Dionne, G; Tremblay, R E

2014-09-01

Physical aggression (PA) tends to have its onset in infancy and to increase rapidly in frequency. Very little is known about the genetic and environmental etiology of PA development during early childhood. We investigated the temporal pattern of genetic and environmental etiology of PA during this crucial developmental period. Participants were 667 twin pairs, including 254 monozygotic and 413 dizygotic pairs, from the ongoing longitudinal Quebec Newborn Twin Study. Maternal reports of PA were obtained from three waves of data at 20, 32 and 50 months. These reports were analysed using a biometric Cholesky decomposition and linear latent growth curve model. The best-fitting Cholesky model revealed developmentally dynamic effects, mostly genetic attenuation and innovation. The contribution of genetic factors at 20 months substantially decreased over time, while new genetic effects appeared later on. The linear latent growth curve model revealed a significant moderate increase in PA from 20 to 50 months. Two separate sets of uncorrelated genetic factors accounted for the variation in initial level and growth rate. Non-shared and shared environments had no effect on the stability, initial status and growth rate in PA. Genetic factors underlie PA frequency and stability during early childhood; they are also responsible for initial status and growth rate in PA. The contribution of shared environment is modest, and perhaps limited, as it appears only at 50 months. Future research should investigate the complex nature of these dynamic genetic factors through genetic-environment correlation (r GE) and interaction (G×E) analyses.

Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhayati, E.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Impron

2017-03-01

Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.

The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed.

Mechanistic modeling of thermo-hydrological processes and microbial interactions at pore to profile scales resolve methane emission dynamics from permafrost soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimi, Ali; Or, Dani

2017-04-01

The sensitivity of the Earth's polar regions to raising global temperatures is reflected in rapidly changing hydrological processes with pronounced seasonal thawing of permafrost soil and increased biological activity. Of particular concern is the potential release of large amounts of soil carbon and the stimulation of other soil-borne GHG emissions such as methane. Soil methanotrophic and methanogenic microbial communities rapidly adjust their activity and spatial organization in response to permafrost thawing and a host of other environmental factors. Soil structural elements such as aggregates and layering and hydration status affect oxygen and nutrient diffusion processes thereby contributing to methanogenic activity within temporal anoxic niches (hotspots or hot-layers). We developed a mechanistic individual based model to quantify microbial activity dynamics within soil pore networks considering, hydration, temperature, transport processes and enzymatic activity associated with methane production in soil. The model was the upscaled from single aggregates (or hotspots) to quantifying emissions from soil profiles in which freezing/thawing processes provide macroscopic boundary conditions for microbial activity at different soil depths. The model distinguishes microbial activity in aerate bulk soil from aggregates (or submerged parts of the profile) for resolving methane production and oxidation rates. Methane transport pathways through soil by diffusion and ebullition of bubbles vary with hydration dynamics and affect emission patterns. The model links seasonal thermal and hydrologic dynamics with evolution of microbial community composition and function affecting net methane emissions in good agreement with experimental data. The mechanistic model enables systematic evaluation of key controlling factors in thawing permafrost and microbial response (e.g., nutrient availability, enzyme activity, PH) on long term methane emissions and carbon decomposition rates in the rapidly changing polar regions.

Investigation of the Dynamic Contact Angle Using a Direct Numerical Simulation Method.

PubMed

Zhu, Guangpu; Yao, Jun; Zhang, Lei; Sun, Hai; Li, Aifen; Shams, Bilal

2016-11-15

A large amount of residual oil, which exists as isolated oil slugs, remains trapped in reservoirs after water flooding. Numerous numerical studies are performed to investigate the fundamental flow mechanism of oil slugs to improve flooding efficiency. Dynamic contact angle models are usually introduced to simulate an accurate contact angle and meniscus displacement of oil slugs under a high capillary number. Nevertheless, in the oil slug flow simulation process, it is unnecessary to introduce the dynamic contact angle model because of a negligible change in the meniscus displacement after using the dynamic contact angle model when the capillary number is small. Therefore, a critical capillary number should be introduced to judge whether the dynamic contact model should be incorporated into simulations. In this study, a direct numerical simulation method is employed to simulate the oil slug flow in a capillary tube at the pore scale. The position of the interface between water and the oil slug is determined using the phase-field method. The capacity and accuracy of the model are validated using a classical benchmark: a dynamic capillary filling process. Then, different dynamic contact angle models and the factors that affect the dynamic contact angle are analyzed. The meniscus displacements of oil slugs with a dynamic contact angle and a static contact angle (SCA) are obtained during simulations, and the relative error between them is calculated automatically. The relative error limit has been defined to be 5%, beyond which the dynamic contact angle model needs to be incorporated into the simulation to approach the realistic displacement. Thus, the desired critical capillary number can be determined. A three-dimensional universal chart of critical capillary number, which functions as static contact angle and viscosity ratio, is given to provide a guideline for oil slug simulation. Also, a fitting formula is presented for ease of use.

On the need of mode interpolation for data-driven Galerkin models of a transient flow around a sphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stankiewicz, Witold; Morzyński, Marek; Kotecki, Krzysztof; Noack, Bernd R.

2017-04-01

We present a low-dimensional Galerkin model with state-dependent modes capturing linear and nonlinear dynamics. Departure point is a direct numerical simulation of the three-dimensional incompressible flow around a sphere at Reynolds numbers 400. This solution starts near the unstable steady Navier-Stokes solution and converges to a periodic limit cycle. The investigated Galerkin models are based on the dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) and derive the dynamical system from first principles, the Navier-Stokes equations. A DMD model with training data from the initial linear transient fails to predict the limit cycle. Conversely, a model from limit-cycle data underpredicts the initial growth rate roughly by a factor 5. Key enablers for uniform accuracy throughout the transient are a continuous mode interpolation between both oscillatory fluctuations and the addition of a shift mode. This interpolated model is shown to capture both the transient growth of the oscillation and the limit cycle.

Sig2GRN: a software tool linking signaling pathway with gene regulatory network for dynamic simulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Fan; Liu, Runsheng; Zheng, Jie

2016-12-23

Linking computational models of signaling pathways to predicted cellular responses such as gene expression regulation is a major challenge in computational systems biology. In this work, we present Sig2GRN, a Cytoscape plugin that is able to simulate time-course gene expression data given the user-defined external stimuli to the signaling pathways. A generalized logical model is used in modeling the upstream signaling pathways. Then a Boolean model and a thermodynamics-based model are employed to predict the downstream changes in gene expression based on the simulated dynamics of transcription factors in signaling pathways. Our empirical case studies show that the simulation of Sig2GRN can predict changes in gene expression patterns induced by DNA damage signals and drug treatments. As a software tool for modeling cellular dynamics, Sig2GRN can facilitate studies in systems biology by hypotheses generation and wet-lab experimental design. http://histone.scse.ntu.edu.sg/Sig2GRN/.

Unusual spiral wave dynamics in the Kessler-Levine model of an excitable medium.

PubMed

Oikawa, N; Bodenschatz, E; Zykov, V S

2015-05-01

The Kessler-Levine model is a two-component reaction-diffusion system that describes spatiotemporal dynamics of the messenger molecules in a cell-to-cell signaling process during the aggregation of social amoeba cells. An excitation wave arising in the model has a phase wave at the wave back, which simply follows the wave front after a fixed time interval with the same propagation velocity. Generally speaking, the medium excitability and the refractoriness are two important factors which determine the spiral wave dynamics in any excitable media. The model allows us to separate these two factors relatively easily since the medium refractoriness can be changed independently of the medium excitability. For rigidly rotating waves, the universal relationship has been established by using a modified free-boundary approach, which assumes that the front and the back of a propagating wave are thin in comparison to the wave plateau. By taking a finite thickness of the domain boundary into consideration, the validity of the proposed excitability measure has been essentially improved. A novel method of numerical simulation to suppress the spiral wave instabilities is introduced. The trajectories of the spiral tip observed for a long refractory period have been investigated under a systematic variation of the medium refractoriness.

Unusual spiral wave dynamics in the Kessler-Levine model of an excitable medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oikawa, N.; Bodenschatz, E.; Zykov, V. S.

2015-05-01

The Kessler-Levine model is a two-component reaction-diffusion system that describes spatiotemporal dynamics of the messenger molecules in a cell-to-cell signaling process during the aggregation of social amoeba cells. An excitation wave arising in the model has a phase wave at the wave back, which simply follows the wave front after a fixed time interval with the same propagation velocity. Generally speaking, the medium excitability and the refractoriness are two important factors which determine the spiral wave dynamics in any excitable media. The model allows us to separate these two factors relatively easily since the medium refractoriness can be changed independently of the medium excitability. For rigidly rotating waves, the universal relationship has been established by using a modified free-boundary approach, which assumes that the front and the back of a propagating wave are thin in comparison to the wave plateau. By taking a finite thickness of the domain boundary into consideration, the validity of the proposed excitability measure has been essentially improved. A novel method of numerical simulation to suppress the spiral wave instabilities is introduced. The trajectories of the spiral tip observed for a long refractory period have been investigated under a systematic variation of the medium refractoriness.

Modeling uncertainty in producing natural gas from tight sands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chermak, J.M.; Dahl, C.A.; Patrick, R.H

1995-12-31

Since accurate geologic, petroleum engineering, and economic information are essential ingredients in making profitable production decisions for natural gas, we combine these ingredients in a dynamic framework to model natural gas reservoir production decisions. We begin with the certainty case before proceeding to consider how uncertainty might be incorporated in the decision process. Our production model uses dynamic optimal control to combine economic information with geological constraints to develop optimal production decisions. To incorporate uncertainty into the model, we develop probability distributions on geologic properties for the population of tight gas sand wells and perform a Monte Carlo study tomore » select a sample of wells. Geological production factors, completion factors, and financial information are combined into the hybrid economic-petroleum reservoir engineering model to determine the optimal production profile, initial gas stock, and net present value (NPV) for an individual well. To model the probability of the production abandonment decision, the NPV data is converted to a binary dependent variable. A logit model is used to model this decision as a function of the above geological and economic data to give probability relationships. Additional ways to incorporate uncertainty into the decision process include confidence intervals and utility theory.« less

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A.D.; O'Neill, K. P.; Harden, J.W.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Yarie, J.

2003-01-01

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce ecosystem in Canada, the age-dependent pattern of the simulated vegetation carbon was verified with inventory data on aboveground growth of Alaskan black spruce forests, and the model was applied to a postfire chronosequence in interior Alaska. The comparison between the simulated soil temperature and field-based estimates during the growing season (May to September) of 1997 revealed that the model was able to accurately simulate monthly temperatures at 10 cm (R > 0.93) for control and burned stands of the fire chronosequence. Similarly, the simulated and field-based estimates of soil respiration for control and burned stands were correlated (R = 0.84 and 0.74 for control and burned stands, respectively). The simulated and observed decadal to century-scale dynamics of soil temperature and carbon dynamics, which are represented by mean monthly values of these variables during the growing season, were correlated among stands (R = 0.93 and 0.71 for soil temperature at 20- and 10-cm depths, R = 0.95 and 0.91 for soil respiration and soil carbon, respectively). Sensitivity analyses indicate that along with differences in fire and climate history a number of other factors influence the response of carbon dynamics to fire disturbance. These factors include nitrogen fixation, the growth of moss, changes in the depth of the organic layer, soil drainage, and fire severity.

Amazon forest carbon dynamics predicted by profiles of canopy leaf area and light environment

Treesearch

S. C. Stark; V. Leitold; J. L. Wu; M. O. Hunter; C. V. de Castilho; F. R. C. Costa; S. M. McMahon; G. G. Parker; M. Takako Shimabukuro; M. A. Lefsky; M. Keller; L. F. Alves; J. Schietti; Y. E. Shimabukuro; D. O. Brandao; T. K. Woodcock; N. Higuchi; P. B de Camargo; R. C. de Oliveira; S. R. Saleska

2012-01-01

Tropical forest structural variation across heterogeneous landscapes may control above-ground carbon dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that canopy structure (leaf area and light availability) – remotely estimated from LiDAR – control variation in above-ground coarse wood production (biomass growth). Using a statistical model, these factors predicted biomass growth...

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

A game dynamic model for delayer strategies in vaccinating behaviour for pediatric infectious diseases.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Samit; Bauch, C T

2010-12-07

Several studies have found that some parents delay the age at which their children receive pediatric vaccines due to perception of higher vaccine risk at the recommended age of vaccination. This has been particularly apparently during the Measles-Mumps-Rubella scare in the United Kingdom. Under a voluntary vaccination policy, vaccine coverage in certain age groups is a potentially complex interplay between vaccinating behaviour, disease dynamics, and age-specific risk factors. Here, we construct an age-structured game dynamic model, where individuals decide whether to vaccinate according to imitation dynamics depending on age-dependent disease prevalence and perceived risk of vaccination. Individuals may be timely vaccinators, delayers, or non-vaccinators. The model exhibits multiple equilibria and a broad range of possible dynamics. For certain parameter regimes, the proportion of timely vaccinators and delayers oscillate in an anti-phase fashion in response to oscillations in infection prevalence. Under an exogenous change to the perceived risk of vaccination as might occur during a vaccine scare, the model can also capture an increase in delayer strategists similar in magnitude to that observed during the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine scare in the United Kingdom. Our model also shows that number of delayers steadily increases with increasing severity of the scare, whereas it saturates to specific value with increases in duration of the scare. Finally, by comparing the model dynamics with and without the option of a delayer strategy, we show that adding a third delayer strategy can have a stabilizing effect on model dynamics. In an era where individual choice--rather than accessibility--is becoming an increasingly important determinant of vaccine uptake, more infectious disease models may need to use game theory or related techniques to determine vaccine uptake. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low-temperature protein dynamics: a simulation analysis of interprotein vibrations and the boson peak at 150 k.

PubMed

Kurkal-Siebert, Vandana; Smith, Jeremy C

2006-02-22

An understanding of low-frequency, collective protein dynamics at low temperatures can furnish valuable information on functional protein energy landscapes, on the origins of the protein glass transition and on protein-protein interactions. Here, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and normal-mode analyses are performed on various models of crystalline myoglobin in order to characterize intra- and interprotein vibrations at 150 K. Principal component analysis of the MD trajectories indicates that the Boson peak, a broad peak in the dynamic structure factor centered at about approximately 2-2.5 meV, originates from approximately 10(2) collective, harmonic vibrations. An accurate description of the environment is found to be essential in reproducing the experimental Boson peak form and position. At lower energies other strong peaks are found in the calculated dynamic structure factor. Characterization of these peaks shows that they arise from harmonic vibrations of proteins relative to each other. These vibrations are likely to furnish valuable information on the physical nature of protein-protein interactions.

Live dynamic analysis of the developing cardiovascular system in mice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Andrew L.; Wang, Shang; Larin, Kirill V.; Larina, Irina V.

2017-02-01

The study of the developing cardiovascular system in mice is important for understanding human cardiogenesis and congenital heart defects. Our research focuses on imaging early development in the mouse embryo to specifically understand cardiovascular development under the regulation of dynamic factors like contractile force and blood flow using optical coherence tomography (OCT). We have previously developed an OCT based approach that combines static embryo culture and advanced image processing with computational modeling to live-image mouse embryos and obtain 4D (3D+time) cardiodynamic datasets. Here we present live 4D dynamic blood flow imaging of the early embryonic mouse heart in correlation with heart wall movement. We are using this approach to understand how specific mutations impact heart wall dynamics, and how this influences flow patterns and cardiogenesis. We perform studies in mutant embryos with cardiac phenotypes such as myosin regulatory light chain 2, atrial isoform (Mlc2a). This work is brings us closer to understanding the connections between dynamic mechanical factors and gene programs responsible for early cardiovascular development.

Dynamics of Biomarkers in Relation to Aging and Mortality

PubMed Central

Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.

2016-01-01

Contemporary longitudinal studies collect repeated measurements of biomarkers allowing one to analyze their dynamics in relation to mortality, morbidity, or other health-related outcomes. Rich and diverse data collected in such studies provide opportunities to investigate how various socioeconomic, demographic, behavioral and other variables can interact with biological and genetic factors to produce differential rates of aging in individuals. In this paper, we review some recent publications investigating dynamics of biomarkers in relation to mortality, which use single biomarkers as well as cumulative measures combining information from multiple biomarkers. We also discuss the analytical approach, the stochastic process models, which conceptualizes several aging-related mechanisms in the structure of the model and allows evaluating “hidden” characteristics of aging-related changes indirectly from available longitudinal data on biomarkers and follow-up on mortality or onset of diseases taking into account other relevant factors (both genetic and non-genetic). We also discuss an extension of the approach, which considers ranges of “optimal values” of biomarkers rather than a single optimal value as in the original model. We discuss practical applications of the approach to single biomarkers and cumulative measures highlighting that the potential of applications to cumulative measures is still largely underused. PMID:27138087

Role of core excitation in (d ,p ) transfer reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deltuva, A.; Ross, A.; Norvaišas, E.; Nunes, F. M.

2016-10-01

Background: Recent work found that core excitations can be important in extracting structure information from (d ,p ) reactions. Purpose: Our objective is to systematically explore the role of core excitation in (d ,p ) reactions and to understand the origin of the dynamical effects. Method: Based on the particle-rotor model of n +10Be , we generate a number of models with a range of separation energies (Sn=0.1 -5.0 MeV), while maintaining a significant core excited component. We then apply the latest extension of the momentum-space-based Faddeev method, including dynamical core excitation in the reaction mechanism to all orders, to the 10Be(d ,p )11Be -like reactions, and study the excitation effects for beam energies Ed=15 -90 MeV. Results: We study the resulting angular distributions and the differences between the spectroscopic factor that would be extracted from the cross sections, when including dynamical core excitation in the reaction, and that of the original structure model. We also explore how different partial waves affect the final cross section. Conclusions: Our results show a strong beam-energy dependence of the extracted spectroscopic factors that become smaller for intermediate beam energies. This dependence increases for loosely bound systems.

Advances in the study of mechanical properties and constitutive law in the field of wood research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, S.; Zhao, J. X.; Han, G. Z.

2016-07-01

This paper presents an overview of mechanical properties and constitutive law for wood. Current research on the mechanical properties of wood have mostly focused on density, grain, moisture, and other natural factors. It has been established that high density, dense grain, and high moisture lead to higher strength. In most literature, wood has been regarded as an anisotropic material because of its fiber. A microscopic view is used in research of wood today, in this way, which has allowed for clear observation of anisotropy. In general, wood has higher strength under a dynamic load, and no densification. The constitutive model is the basis of numerical analysis. An anisotropic model of porous and composite materials has been used for wood, but results were poor, and new constitutions have been introduced. According to the literature, there is no single theory that is widely accepted for the dynamic load. Research has shown that grain and moisture are key factors in wood strength, but there has not been enough study on dynamic loads so far. Hill law has been the most common method of simulation. Models that consider high strain rate are attracting more and more attention.

Acoustic dynamics of supercooled indomethacin probed by Brillouin light scattering.

PubMed

De Panfilis, S; Pogna, E A A; Virga, A; Scopigno, T

2014-07-21

Acoustics dynamics of the molecular glass-former indomethacin (IMC) have been investigated by Brillouin light scattering (BLS) at GHz frequencies. Elastic response of the system has been tracked from the melting temperature down to the glass transition through the supercooled liquid. Both the structural arrest and the vibrational dynamics are described by modeling the experimentally determined dynamic structure factor within the framework of the Langevin equation, through a simplified choice of memory function which allows one to determine sound velocity and the acoustic attenuation coefficient as a function of temperature. The density fluctuation spectra in the glassy phase, as probed by BLS, are compared with time-domain results from photoacoustics experiments. The arising scenario is discussed in the context of current literature reporting inelastic X-ray scattering and BLS in platelet geometry. The link between the probed elastic properties and the non-ergodicity factor of the glass phase is finally scrutinized.

Brownian dynamics of sterically-stabilized colloidal suspensions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

TeGrotenhuis, W.E.; Radke, C.J.; Denn, M.M.

1994-02-01

One application where microstructure plays a critical role is in the production of specialty ceramics, where colloidal suspensions act as precursors; here the microstructure influences the structural, thermal, optical and electrical properties of the ceramic products. Using Brownian dynamics, equilibrium and dynamic properties are calculated for colloidal suspensions that are stabilized through the Milner, Witten and Cates (1988) steric potential. Results are reported for osmotic pressures, radial distributions functions, static structure factors, and self-diffusion coefficients. The sterically-stabilized systems are also approximated by equivalent hard spheres, with good agreement for osmotic pressure and long-range structure. The suitability of the potential tomore » model the behavior of a real system is explored by comparing static structure factors calculated from Brownian dynamics simulations to those measured using SANS. Finally, the effects of Hamaker and hydrodynamic forces on calculated properties are investigated.« less

Fundamental Design Principles for Transcription-Factor-Based Metabolite Biosensors.

PubMed

Mannan, Ahmad A; Liu, Di; Zhang, Fuzhong; Oyarzún, Diego A

2017-10-20

Metabolite biosensors are central to current efforts toward precision engineering of metabolism. Although most research has focused on building new biosensors, their tunability remains poorly understood and is fundamental for their broad applicability. Here we asked how genetic modifications shape the dose-response curve of biosensors based on metabolite-responsive transcription factors. Using the lac system in Escherichia coli as a model system, we built promoter libraries with variable operator sites that reveal interdependencies between biosensor dynamic range and response threshold. We developed a phenomenological theory to quantify such design constraints in biosensors with various architectures and tunable parameters. Our theory reveals a maximal achievable dynamic range and exposes tunable parameters for orthogonal control of dynamic range and response threshold. Our work sheds light on fundamental limits of synthetic biology designs and provides quantitative guidelines for biosensor design in applications such as dynamic pathway control, strain optimization, and real-time monitoring of metabolism.

Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

PubMed Central

Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

2009-01-01

Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

Hydro-dynamic damping theory in flowing water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monette, C.; Nennemann, B.; Seeley, C.; Coutu, A.; Marmont, H.

2014-03-01

Fluid-structure interaction (FSI) has a major impact on the dynamic response of the structural components of hydroelectric turbines. On mid-head to high-head Francis runners, the rotor-stator interaction (RSI) phenomenon always has to be considered carefully during the design phase to avoid operational issues later on. The RSI dynamic response amplitudes are driven by three main factors: (1) pressure forcing amplitudes, (2) excitation frequencies in relation to natural frequencies and (3) damping. The prediction of the two first factors has been largely documented in the literature. However, the prediction of fluid damping has received less attention in spite of being critical when the runner is close to resonance. Experimental damping measurements in flowing water on hydrofoils were presented previously. Those results showed that the hydro-dynamic damping increased linearly with the flow. This paper presents development and validation of a mathematical model, based on momentum exchange, to predict damping due to fluid structure interaction in flowing water. The model is implemented as an analytical procedure for simple structures, such as cantilever beams, but is also implemented in more general ways using three different approaches for more complex structures such as runner blades: a finite element procedure, a CFD modal work based approach and a CFD 1DOF approach. The mathematical model and all three implementation approaches are shown to agree well with experimental results.

Using decision tree analysis to identify risk factors for relapse to smoking

PubMed Central

Piper, Megan E.; Loh, Wei-Yin; Smith, Stevens S.; Japuntich, Sandra J.; Baker, Timothy B.

2010-01-01

This research used classification tree analysis and logistic regression models to identify risk factors related to short- and long-term abstinence. Baseline and cessation outcome data from two smoking cessation trials, conducted from 2001 to 2002, in two Midwestern urban areas, were analyzed. There were 928 participants (53.1% women, 81.8% white) with complete data. Both analyses suggest that relapse risk is produced by interactions of risk factors and that early and late cessation outcomes reflect different vulnerability factors. The results illustrate the dynamic nature of relapse risk and suggest the importance of efficient modeling of interactions in relapse prediction. PMID:20397871

System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

PubMed

Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

2013-05-15

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Regulation of FoxA1 by Steroid Receptors | Center for Cancer Research

Cancer.gov

The estrogen receptor (ER) is a key regulator in breast cancer initiation and progression. A widely discussed model proposes that forkhead box protein A1 (FoxA1) acts as a pioneer factor in cancer by binding and penetrating closed chromatin to allow access by transcription factors (TFs), including ER.

Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Treesearch

Yiqi Luo; Dieter Gerten; Guerric Le Maire; William J. Parton; Ensheng Weng; Xuhui Zhou; Cindy Keough; Claus Beier; Philippe Ciais; Wolfgang Cramer; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Bridget Emmett; Paul J. Hanson; Alan Knapp; Sune Linder; Dan Nepstad; Lindsey. Rustad

2008-01-01

Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive...

A smoothed residual based goodness-of-fit statistic for nest-survival models

Treesearch

Rodney X. Sturdivant; Jay J. Rotella; Robin E. Russell

2008-01-01

Estimating nest success and identifying important factors related to nest-survival rates is an essential goal for many wildlife researchers interested in understanding avian population dynamics. Advances in statistical methods have led to a number of estimation methods and approaches to modeling this problem. Recently developed models allow researchers to include a...

Academic Optimism and Collective Responsibility: An Organizational Model of the Dynamics of Student Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Jason H.

2013-01-01

This study was designed to examine the construct of academic optimism and its relationship with collective responsibility in a sample of Taiwan elementary schools. The construct of academic optimism was tested using confirmatory factor analysis, and the whole structural model was tested with a structural equation modeling analysis. The data were…

Development of a dynamic framework to explain population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Garcia, Leandro M T; Diez Roux, Ana V; Martins, André C R; Yang, Yong; Florindo, Alex A

2017-08-22

Despite the increasing body of evidences on the factors influencing leisure-time physical activity, our understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that lead to the formation and evolution of population patterns is still limited. Moreover, most frameworks in this field fail to capture dynamic processes. Our aim was to create a dynamic conceptual model depicting the interaction between key psychological attributes of individuals and main aspects of the built and social environments in which they live. This conceptual model will inform and support the development of an agent-based model aimed to explore how population patterns of LTPA in adults may emerge from the dynamic interplay between psychological traits and built and social environments. We integrated existing theories and models as well as available empirical data (both from literature reviews), and expert opinions (based on a systematic expert assessment of an intermediary version of the model). The model explicitly presents intention as the proximal determinant of leisure-time physical activity, a relationship dynamically moderated by the built environment (access, quality, and available activities) - with the strength of the moderation varying as a function of the person's intention- and influenced both by the social environment (proximal network's and community's behavior) and the person's behavior. Our conceptual model is well supported by evidence and experts' opinions and will inform the design of our agent-based model, as well as data collection and analysis of future investigations on population patterns of leisure-time physical activity among adults.

Anticlockwise or Clockwise? A Dynamic Perception-Action-Laterality Model for Directionality Bias in Visuospatial Functioning

PubMed Central

Karim, A.K.M. Rezaul; Proulx, Michael J.; Likova, Lora T.

2016-01-01

Reviewing the relevant literature in visual psychophysics and visual neuroscience we propose a three-stage model of directionality bias in visuospatial functioning. We call this model the ‘Perception-Action-Laterality’ (PAL) hypothesis. We analyzed the research findings for a wide range of visuospatial tasks, showing that there are two major directionality trends: clockwise versus anticlockwise. It appears these preferences are combinatorial, such that a majority of people fall in the first category demonstrating a preference for stimuli/objects arranged from left-to-right rather than from right-to-left, while people in the second category show an opposite trend. These perceptual biases can guide sensorimotor integration and action, creating two corresponding turner groups in the population. In support of PAL, we propose another model explaining the origins of the biases– how the neurogenetic factors and the cultural factors interact in a biased competition framework to determine the direction and extent of biases. This dynamic model can explain not only the two major categories of biases, but also the unbiased, unreliably biased or mildly biased cases in visuosptial functioning. PMID:27350096

A Validated Multiscale In-Silico Model for Mechano-sensitive Tumour Angiogenesis and Growth

PubMed Central

Loizidou, Marilena; Stylianopoulos, Triantafyllos; Hawkes, David J.

2017-01-01

Vascularisation is a key feature of cancer growth, invasion and metastasis. To better understand the governing biophysical processes and their relative importance, it is instructive to develop physiologically representative mathematical models with which to compare to experimental data. Previous studies have successfully applied this approach to test the effect of various biochemical factors on tumour growth and angiogenesis. However, these models do not account for the experimentally observed dependency of angiogenic network evolution on growth-induced solid stresses. This work introduces two novel features: the effects of hapto- and mechanotaxis on vessel sprouting, and mechano-sensitive dynamic vascular remodelling. The proposed three-dimensional, multiscale, in-silico model of dynamically coupled angiogenic tumour growth is specified to in-vivo and in-vitro data, chosen, where possible, to provide a physiologically consistent description. The model is then validated against in-vivo data from murine mammary carcinomas, with particular focus placed on identifying the influence of mechanical factors. Crucially, we find that it is necessary to include hapto- and mechanotaxis to recapitulate observed time-varying spatial distributions of angiogenic vasculature. PMID:28125582

vGNM: a better model for understanding the dynamics of proteins in crystals.

PubMed

Song, Guang; Jernigan, Robert L

2007-06-08

The dynamics of proteins are important for understanding their functions. In recent years, the simple coarse-grained Gaussian Network Model (GNM) has been fairly successful in interpreting crystallographic B-factors. However, the model clearly ignores the contribution of the rigid body motions and the effect of crystal packing. The model cannot explain the fact that the same protein may have significantly different B-factors under different crystal packing conditions. In this work, we propose a new GNM, called vGNM, which takes into account both the contribution of the rigid body motions and the effect of crystal packing, by allowing the amplitude of the internal modes to be variables. It hypothesizes that the effect of crystal packing should cause some modes to be amplified and others to become less important. In doing so, vGNM is able to resolve the apparent discrepancy in experimental B-factors among structures of the same protein but with different crystal packing conditions, which GNM cannot explain. With a small number of parameters, vGNM is able to reproduce experimental B-factors for a large set of proteins with significantly better correlations (having a mean value of 0.81 as compared to 0.59 by GNM). The results of applying vGNM also show that the rigid body motions account for nearly 60% of the total fluctuations, in good agreement with previous findings.

Multiple Input Design for Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene

2003-01-01

A method for designing multiple inputs for real-time dynamic system identification in the frequency domain was developed and demonstrated. The designed inputs are mutually orthogonal in both the time and frequency domains, with reduced peak factors to provide good information content for relatively small amplitude excursions. The inputs are designed for selected frequency ranges, and therefore do not require a priori models. The experiment design approach was applied to identify linear dynamic models for the F-15 ACTIVE aircraft, which has multiple control effectors.

Ab initio study of the structure and dynamics of bulk liquid Fe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marqués, M.; González, L. E.; González, D. J.

2015-10-01

Several static and dynamic properties of bulk liquid Fe at a thermodynamic state near its triple point have been evaluated by ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. The calculated static structure shows very good agreement with the available experimental data, including an asymmetric second peak in the structure factor which underlines a substantial local icosahedral short-range order in the liquid. The dynamical structure reveals propagating density fluctuations, with an associated dispersion relation which closely follows the experimental data. The dynamic structure factors S (q ,ω ) show a good agreement with their experimental counterparts which have been recently measured by an inelastic x-ray scattering experiment. The dynamical processes behind the S (q ,ω ) have been analyzed by using a model with two decay channels (a fast and a slow) associated with the relaxations of the collective excitations. The recent finding of transverselike excitation modes in the IXS data is analyzed by using the present ab initio simulation results. Several transport coefficients have been evaluated and the results are compared with the available experimental data.

Development of dynamic wheat crop model in ISAM and estimation of impacts of environmental factors on wheat production in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gahlot, S.; Lin, T. S.; Jain, A. K.; Baidya Roy, S.; Sehgal, V. K.; Dhakar, R.

2017-12-01

With changing environmental conditions, such as climate and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, questions about food security can be answered by modeling crops based on our understanding of the dynamic crop growth processes and interactions between the crops and their environment in the form of carbon, water and energy fluxes. These interactions and their effect on cropland ecosystems are non-linear because of the feedback mechanisms. Hence, process-based modelling approach can be used to conduct numerical experiments to derive insights into these processes and interactive feedbacks. In this study we have implemented dynamic crop growth processes for wheat into a data-modeling framework, Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), to estimate the impacts of different factors like CO2 fertilization, irrigation, nitrogen limitation and climate change on wheat in India. In specific, we have implemented wheat-specific phenology, C3 photosynthesis mechanism and phenology-specific carbon allocation schemes for assimilated carbon to leaf, stem, root and grain pools. Crop growth limiting stress factors like nutrients, temperature and light have been included. The impact of high temperatures on leaf senescence, anthesis and grain filling has been modeled and found to be causing significant reduction in yield in the recent years. Field data from an experimental wheat site located at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), New Delhi, India has been collected for aboveground biomass and leaf area index (LAI) for two growing seasons 2014-15 and 2015-16. This data has been used to study the phenology, growing season length, thermal requirements and growth stages of wheat. Using the field data, the dynamic model for wheat has been evaluated for the site level seasonal variability in leaf area index (LAI) and aboveground biomass. The variations in carbon, water and energy fluxes, plant height and rooting depth have been analyzed on the site level. Model experiments have been performed to calculate the yield for wheat for India for the historical years. In order to identify wheat production regions in India that are prone to one or multiple stresses in years to come, model experiments have been performed based on future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5.

Multijoint kinetic chain analysis of knee extension during the soccer instep kick.

PubMed

Naito, Kozo; Fukui, Yosuke; Maruyama, Takeo

2010-04-01

Although previous studies have shown that motion-dependent interactions between adjacent segments play an important role in producing knee extension during the soccer instep kick, detailed knowledge about the mechanisms underlying those interactions is lacking. The present study aimed to develop a 3-D dynamical model for the multijoint kinetic chain of the instep kick in order to quantify the contributions of the causal dynamical factors to the production of maximum angular velocity during knee extension. Nine collegiate soccer players volunteered to participate in the experiment and performed instep kicking movements while 3-D positional data and the ground reaction force were measured. A dynamical model was developed in the form of a linked system containing 8 segments and 18 joint rotations, and the knee extension/flexion motion was decomposed into causal factors related to muscular moment, gyroscopic moment, centrifugal force, Coriolis force, gravity, proximal endpoint linear acceleration, and external force-dependent terms. The rapid knee extension during instep kicking was found to result almost entirely from kicking leg centrifugal force, trunk rotation muscular moment, kicking leg Coriolis force, and trunk rotation gyroscopic-dependent components. Based on the finding that rapid knee extension during instep kicking stems from multiple dynamical factors, it is suggested that the multijoint kinetic chain analysis used in the present study is more useful for achieving a detailed understanding of the cause of rapid kicking leg movement than the previously used 2-D, two-segment kinetic chain model. The present results also indicated that the centrifugal effect due to the kicking hip flexion angular velocity contributed substantially to the generation of a rapid knee extension, suggesting that the adjustment between the kicking hip flexion angular velocity and the leg configuration (knee flexion angle) is more important for effective instep kicking than other joint kinematics.

Salmonella Typhimurium and Staphylococcus aureus dynamics in/on variable (micro)structures of fish-based model systems at suboptimal temperatures.

PubMed

Baka, Maria; Verheyen, Davy; Cornette, Nicolas; Vercruyssen, Stijn; Van Impe, Jan F

2017-01-02

The limited knowledge concerning the influence of food (micro)structure on microbial dynamics decreases the accuracy of the developed predictive models, as most studies have mainly been based on experimental data obtained in liquid microbiological media or in/on real foods. The use of model systems has a great potential when studying this complex factor. Apart from the variability in (micro)structural properties, model systems vary in compositional aspects, as a consequence of their (micro)structural variation. In this study, different experimental food model systems, with compositional and physicochemical properties similar to fish patés, are developed to study the influence of food (micro)structure on microbial dynamics. The microbiological safety of fish products is of major importance given the numerous cases of salmonellosis and infections attributed to staphylococcus toxins. The model systems understudy represent food (micro)structures of liquids, aqueous gels, emulsions and gelled emulsions. The growth/inactivation dynamics and a modelling approach of combined growth and inactivation of Salmonella Typhimurium and Staphylococcus aureus, related to fish products, are investigated in/on these model systems at temperatures relevant to fish products' common storage (4°C) and to abuse storage temperatures (8 and 12°C). ComBase (http://www.combase.cc/) predictions compared with the maximum specific growth rate (μ max ) values estimated by the Baranyi and Roberts model in the current study indicated that the (micro)structure influences the microbial dynamics. Overall, ComBase overestimated microbial growth at the same pH, a w and storage temperature. Finally, the storage temperature had also an influence on how much each model system affected the microbial dynamics. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Experimental and Numerical Study on Tensile Strength of Concrete under Different Strain Rates

PubMed Central

Min, Fanlu; Yao, Zhanhu; Jiang, Teng

2014-01-01

The dynamic characterization of concrete is fundamental to understand the material behavior in case of heavy earthquakes and dynamic events. The implementation of material constitutive law is of capital importance for the numerical simulation of the dynamic processes as those caused by earthquakes. Splitting tensile concrete specimens were tested at strain rates of 10−7 s−1 to 10−4 s−1 in an MTS material test machine. Results of tensile strength versus strain rate are presented and compared with compressive strength and existing models at similar strain rates. Dynamic increase factor versus strain rate curves for tensile strength were also evaluated and discussed. The same tensile data are compared with strength data using a thermodynamic model. Results of the tests show a significant strain rate sensitive behavior, exhibiting dynamic tensile strength increasing with strain rate. In the quasistatic strain rate regime, the existing models often underestimate the experimental results. The thermodynamic theory for the splitting tensile strength of concrete satisfactorily describes the experimental findings of strength as effect of strain rates. PMID:24883355

Pluripotency, Differentiation, and Reprogramming: A Gene Expression Dynamics Model with Epigenetic Feedback Regulation

PubMed Central

Miyamoto, Tadashi; Furusawa, Chikara; Kaneko, Kunihiko

2015-01-01

Embryonic stem cells exhibit pluripotency: they can differentiate into all types of somatic cells. Pluripotent genes such as Oct4 and Nanog are activated in the pluripotent state, and their expression decreases during cell differentiation. Inversely, expression of differentiation genes such as Gata6 and Gata4 is promoted during differentiation. The gene regulatory network controlling the expression of these genes has been described, and slower-scale epigenetic modifications have been uncovered. Although the differentiation of pluripotent stem cells is normally irreversible, reprogramming of cells can be experimentally manipulated to regain pluripotency via overexpression of certain genes. Despite these experimental advances, the dynamics and mechanisms of differentiation and reprogramming are not yet fully understood. Based on recent experimental findings, we constructed a simple gene regulatory network including pluripotent and differentiation genes, and we demonstrated the existence of pluripotent and differentiated states from the resultant dynamical-systems model. Two differentiation mechanisms, interaction-induced switching from an expression oscillatory state and noise-assisted transition between bistable stationary states, were tested in the model. The former was found to be relevant to the differentiation process. We also introduced variables representing epigenetic modifications, which controlled the threshold for gene expression. By assuming positive feedback between expression levels and the epigenetic variables, we observed differentiation in expression dynamics. Additionally, with numerical reprogramming experiments for differentiated cells, we showed that pluripotency was recovered in cells by imposing overexpression of two pluripotent genes and external factors to control expression of differentiation genes. Interestingly, these factors were consistent with the four Yamanaka factors, Oct4, Sox2, Klf4, and Myc, which were necessary for the establishment of induced pluripotent stem cells. These results, based on a gene regulatory network and expression dynamics, contribute to our wider understanding of pluripotency, differentiation, and reprogramming of cells, and they provide a fresh viewpoint on robustness and control during development. PMID:26308610

Groundwater salinity in a floodplain forest impacted by saltwater intrusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, David A.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

2014-11-01

Coastal wetlands occupy a delicate position at the intersection of fresh and saline waters. Changing climate and watershed hydrology can lead to saltwater intrusion into historically freshwater systems, causing plant mortality and loss of freshwater habitat. Understanding the hydrological functioning of tidally influenced floodplain forests is essential for advancing ecosystem protection and restoration goals, however finding direct relationships between hydrological inputs and floodplain hydrology is complicated by interactions between surface water, groundwater, and atmospheric fluxes in variably saturated soils with heterogeneous vegetation and topography. Thus, an alternative method for identifying common trends and causal factors is required. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a time series dimension reduction technique, models temporal variation in observed data as linear combinations of common trends, which represent unexplained common variability, and explanatory variables. DFA was applied to model shallow groundwater salinity in the forested floodplain wetlands of the Loxahatchee River (Florida, USA), where altered watershed hydrology has led to changing hydroperiod and salinity regimes and undesired vegetative changes. Long-term, high-resolution groundwater salinity datasets revealed dynamics over seasonal and yearly time periods as well as over tidal cycles and storm events. DFA identified shared trends among salinity time series and a full dynamic factor model simulated observed series well (overall coefficient of efficiency, Ceff = 0.85; 0.52 ≤ Ceff ≤ 0.99). A reduced multilinear model based solely on explanatory variables identified in the DFA had fair to good results (Ceff = 0.58; 0.38 ≤ Ceff ≤ 0.75) and may be used to assess the effects of restoration and management scenarios on shallow groundwater salinity in the Loxahatchee River floodplain.

Modeling Systems-Level Regulation of Host Immune Responses

PubMed Central

Thakar, Juilee; Pilione, Mylisa; Kirimanjeswara, Girish; Harvill, Eric T; Albert, Réka

2007-01-01

Many pathogens are able to manipulate the signaling pathways responsible for the generation of host immune responses. Here we examine and model a respiratory infection system in which disruption of host immune functions or of bacterial factors changes the dynamics of the infection. We synthesize the network of interactions between host immune components and two closely related bacteria in the genus Bordetellae. We incorporate existing experimental information on the timing of immune regulatory events into a discrete dynamic model, and verify the model by comparing the effects of simulated disruptions to the experimental outcome of knockout mutations. Our model indicates that the infection time course of both Bordetellae can be separated into three distinct phases based on the most active immune processes. We compare and discuss the effect of the species-specific virulence factors on disrupting the immune response during their infection of naive, antibody-treated, diseased, or convalescent hosts. Our model offers predictions regarding cytokine regulation, key immune components, and clearance of secondary infections; we experimentally validate two of these predictions. This type of modeling provides new insights into the virulence, pathogenesis, and host adaptation of disease-causing microorganisms and allows systems-level analysis that is not always possible using traditional methods. PMID:17559300

Simulations in Cyber-Security: A Review of Cognitive Modeling of Network Attackers, Defenders, and Users.

PubMed

Veksler, Vladislav D; Buchler, Norbou; Hoffman, Blaine E; Cassenti, Daniel N; Sample, Char; Sugrim, Shridat

2018-01-01

Computational models of cognitive processes may be employed in cyber-security tools, experiments, and simulations to address human agency and effective decision-making in keeping computational networks secure. Cognitive modeling can addresses multi-disciplinary cyber-security challenges requiring cross-cutting approaches over the human and computational sciences such as the following: (a) adversarial reasoning and behavioral game theory to predict attacker subjective utilities and decision likelihood distributions, (b) human factors of cyber tools to address human system integration challenges, estimation of defender cognitive states, and opportunities for automation, (c) dynamic simulations involving attacker, defender, and user models to enhance studies of cyber epidemiology and cyber hygiene, and (d) training effectiveness research and training scenarios to address human cyber-security performance, maturation of cyber-security skill sets, and effective decision-making. Models may be initially constructed at the group-level based on mean tendencies of each subject's subgroup, based on known statistics such as specific skill proficiencies, demographic characteristics, and cultural factors. For more precise and accurate predictions, cognitive models may be fine-tuned to each individual attacker, defender, or user profile, and updated over time (based on recorded behavior) via techniques such as model tracing and dynamic parameter fitting.

Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schurgers, Guy; Camia, Andrea; Arneth, Almut

2015-11-01

Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.

Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph.

PubMed

Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

2016-01-01

In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks' price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds.

Data management system performance modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiser, Larry M.

1993-01-01

This paper discusses analytical techniques that have been used to gain a better understanding of the Space Station Freedom's (SSF's) Data Management System (DMS). The DMS is a complex, distributed, real-time computer system that has been redesigned numerous times. The implications of these redesigns have not been fully analyzed. This paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages for static analytical techniques such as Rate Monotonic Analysis (RMA) and also provides a rationale for dynamic modeling. Factors such as system architecture, processor utilization, bus architecture, queuing, etc. are well suited for analysis with a dynamic model. The significance of performance measures for a real-time system are discussed.

Static and dynamic pitching moment measurements on a family of elliptic cones at Mach number 11 in helium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orlik-Rueckermann, K. J.; Laberge, J. G.

1970-01-01

Static and dynamic pitching moment measurements were made on a family of constant volume elliptic cones about two fixed axes of oscillation in the NAE helium hypersonic wind tunnel at a Mach number of 11 and at Reynolds numbers based on model length of up to 14 million. Viscous effects on the stability derivatives were investigated by varying the Reynolds number for certain models by a factor as large as 10. The models investigated comprised a 7.75 deg circular cone, elliptic cones of axis ratios 3 and 6, and an elliptic cone with conical protuberances.

Effect of temperature- and frequency-dependent dynamic properties of rail pads on high-speed vehicle-track coupled vibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Kai; Wang, Feng; Wang, Ping; Liu, Zi-xuan; Zhang, Pan

2017-03-01

The soft under baseplate pad of WJ-8 rail fastener frequently used in China's high-speed railways was taken as the study subject, and a laboratory test was performed to measure its temperature and frequency-dependent dynamic performance at 0.3 Hz and at -60°C to 20°C with intervals of 2.5°C. Its higher frequency-dependent results at different temperatures were then further predicted based on the time-temperature superposition (TTS) and Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) formula. The fractional derivative Kelvin-Voigt (FDKV) model was used to represent the temperature- and frequency-dependent dynamic properties of the tested rail pad. By means of the FDKV model for rail pads and vehicle-track coupled dynamic theory, high-speed vehicle-track coupled vibrations due to temperature- and frequency-dependent dynamic properties of rail pads was investigated. Finally, further combining with the measured frequency-dependent dynamic performance of vehicle's rubber primary suspension, the high-speed vehicle-track coupled vibration responses were discussed. It is found that the storage stiffness and loss factor of the tested rail pad are sensitive to low temperatures or high frequencies. The proposed FDKV model for the frequency-dependent storage stiffness and loss factors of the tested rail pad can basically meet the fitting precision, especially at ordinary temperatures. The numerical simulation results indicate that the vertical vibration levels of high-speed vehicle-track coupled systems calculated with the FDKV model for rail pads in time domain are higher than those calculated with the ordinary Kelvin-Voigt (KV) model for rail pads. Additionally, the temperature- and frequency-dependent dynamic properties of the tested rail pads would alter the vertical vibration acceleration levels (VALs) of the car body and bogie in 1/3 octave frequencies above 31.5 Hz, especially enlarge the vertical VALs of the wheel set and rail in 1/3 octave frequencies of 31.5-100 Hz and above 315 Hz, which are the dominant frequencies of ground vibration acceleration and rolling noise (or bridge noise) caused by high-speed railways respectively. Since the fractional derivative value of the adopted rubber primary suspension, unlike the tested rail pad, is very close to 1, its frequency-dependent dynamic performance has little effect on high-speed vehicle-track coupled vibration responses.

Factors Influencing the Performance of Dynamic Decision Network for INQPRO

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ting, Choo-Yee; Phon-Amnuaisuk, Somnuk

2009-01-01

There has been an increasing interest in employing decision-theoretic framework for learner modeling and provision of pedagogical support in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs). Much of the existing learner modeling research work focuses on identifying appropriate learner properties. Little attention, however, has been given to leverage Dynamic…

Profiles in Leadership: Enhancing Learning through Model and Theory Building.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mello, Jeffrey A.

2003-01-01

A class assignment was designed to present factors affecting leadership dynamics, allow practice in model and theory building, and examine leadership from multicultural perspectives. Students developed a profile of a fictional or real leader and analyzed qualities, motivations, context, and effectiveness in written and oral presentations.…

Stochastic dynamics of genetic broadcasting networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potoyan, Davit A.; Wolynes, Peter G.

2017-11-01

The complex genetic programs of eukaryotic cells are often regulated by key transcription factors occupying or clearing out of a large number of genomic locations. Orchestrating the residence times of these factors is therefore important for the well organized functioning of a large network. The classic models of genetic switches sidestep this timing issue by assuming the binding of transcription factors to be governed entirely by thermodynamic protein-DNA affinities. Here we show that relying on passive thermodynamics and random release times can lead to a "time-scale crisis" for master genes that broadcast their signals to a large number of binding sites. We demonstrate that this time-scale crisis for clearance in a large broadcasting network can be resolved by actively regulating residence times through molecular stripping. We illustrate these ideas by studying a model of the stochastic dynamics of the genetic network of the central eukaryotic master regulator NFκ B which broadcasts its signals to many downstream genes that regulate immune response, apoptosis, etc.

A physico-genetic module for the polarisation of auxin efflux carriers PIN-FORMED (PIN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Hernández, Valeria; Barrio, Rafael A.; Benítez, Mariana; Nakayama, Naomi; Romero-Arias, José Roberto; Villarreal, Carlos

2018-05-01

Intracellular polarisation of auxin efflux carriers is crucial for understanding how auxin gradients form in plants. The polarisation dynamics of auxin efflux carriers PIN-FORMED (PIN) depends on both biomechanical forces as well as chemical, molecular and genetic factors. Biomechanical forces have shown to affect the localisation of PIN transporters to the plasma membrane. We propose a physico-genetic module of PIN polarisation that integrates biomechanical, molecular, and cellular processes as well as their non-linear interactions. The module was implemented as a discrete Boolean model and then approximated to a continuous dynamic system, in order to explore the relative contribution of the factors mediating PIN polarisation at the scale of single cell. Our models recovered qualitative behaviours that have been experimentally observed and enable us to predict that, in the context of PIN polarisation, the effects of the mechanical forces can predominate over the activity of molecular factors such as the GTPase ROP6 and the ROP-INTERACTIVE CRIB MOTIF-CONTAINING PROTEIN RIC1.

Avoiding the Water-Climate-Poverty Trap: Adaptive Risk Management for Bangladesh's Coastal Embankments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, J. W.

2015-12-01

Our recent research on water security (Sadoff et al., 2015, Dadson et al., 2015) has revealed the dynamic relationship between water security and human well-being. A version of this dynamic is materialising in the coastal polder areas of Khulna, Bangladesh. Repeated coastal floods increase salinity, wipe out agricultural yields for several years and increase out-migration. As a tool to help inform and target future cycles of investment in improvements to the coastal embankments, in this paper we propose a dynamical model of biophysical processes and human well-being, which downscales our previous research to the Khulna region. State variables in the model include agricultural production, population, life expectancy and child mortality. Possible infrastructure interventions include embankment improvements, groundwater wells and drainage infrastructure. Hazard factors include flooding, salinization and drinking water pollution. Our system model can be used to inform adaptation decision making by testing the dynamical response of the system to a range of possible policy interventions, under uncertain future conditions. The analysis is intended to target investment and enable adaptive resource reallocation based on learning about the system response to interventions over the seven years of our research programme. The methodology and paper will demonstrate the complex interplay of factors that determine system vulnerability to climate change. The role of climate change uncertainties (in terms of mean sea level rise and storm surge frequency) will be evaluated alongside multiple other uncertain factors that determine system response. Adaptive management in a 'learning system' will be promoted as a mechanism for coping with climate uncertainties. References:Dadson, S., Hall, J.W., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C. and Grey, D. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model, Global Environmental Change, in review.Sadoff, C.W., Hall, J.W., Grey, D., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Ait-Kadi, M., Brown, C., Cox, A., Dadson, S., Garrick, D., Kelman, J., McCornick, P., Ringler, C., Rosegrant, M., Whittington, D. and Wiberg, D. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, April 2015, 180pp.

Spin dynamics of counterrotating Kitaev spirals via duality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimchi, Itamar; Coldea, Radu

2016-11-01

Incommensurate spiral order is a common occurrence in frustrated magnetic insulators. Typically, all magnetic moments rotate uniformly, through the same wavevector. However the honeycomb iridates family Li2IrO3 shows an incommensurate order where spirals on neighboring sublattices are counterrotating, giving each moment a different local environment. Theoretically describing its spin dynamics has remained a challenge: The Kitaev interactions proposed to stabilize this state, which arise from strong spin-orbit effects, induce magnon umklapp scattering processes in spin-wave theory. Here we propose an approach via a (Klein) duality transformation into a conventional spiral of a frustrated Heisenberg model, allowing a direct derivation of the dynamical structure factor. We analyze both Kitaev and Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya based models, both of which can stabilize counterrotating spirals, but with different spin dynamics, and we propose experimental tests to identify the origin of counterrotation.

A spatial operator algebra for manipulator modeling and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.; Kreutz, K.; Milman, M.

1988-01-01

A powerful new spatial operator algebra for modeling, control, and trajectory design of manipulators is discussed along with its implementation in the Ada programming language. Applications of this algebra to robotics include an operator representation of the manipulator Jacobian matrix; the robot dynamical equations formulated in terms of the spatial algebra, showing the complete equivalence between the recursive Newton-Euler formulations to robot dynamics; the operator factorization and inversion of the manipulator mass matrix which immediately results in O(N) recursive forward dynamics algorithms; the joint accelerations of a manipulator due to a tip contact force; the recursive computation of the equivalent mass matrix as seen at the tip of a manipulator; and recursive forward dynamics of a closed chain system. Finally, additional applications and current research involving the use of the spatial operator algebra are discussed in general terms.

Bifurcations and catastrophes in a nonlinear dynamical model of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge line index and its evolution mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Mei; Zhang, Ren; Li, Ming; Wang, Shuo; Zeng, Wenhua; Wang, Zhengxin

2017-07-01

Despite much previous effort, the establishment of an accurate model of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and analysis of its chaotic behavior has proved to be difficult. Based on a phase-space technique, a nonlinear dynamical model of the WPSH ridge line and summer monsoon factors is constructed here from 50 years of data. Using a genetic algorithm, model inversion and parameter optimization are performed. The Lyapunov spectrum, phase portraits, time history, and Poincaré surface of section of the model are analyzed and an initial-value sensitivity test is performed, showing that the model and data have similar phase portraits and that the model is robust. Based on equilibrium stability criteria, four types of equilibria of the model are analyzed. Bifurcations and catastrophes of the equilibria are studied and related to the physical mechanism and actual weather phenomena. The results show that the onset and enhancement of the Somali low-level jet and the latent heat flux of the Indian monsoon are among the most important reasons for the appearance and maintenance of the double-ridge phenomenon. Violent breakout and enhancement of the Mascarene cold high will cause the WPSH to jump northward, resulting in the "empty plum" phenomenon. In the context of bifurcation and catastrophe in the dynamical system, the influence of the factors considered here on the WPSH has theoretical and practical significance. This work also opens the way to new lines of research on the interaction between the WPSH and the summer monsoon system.

Design of psychosocial factors questionnaires: a systematic measurement approach

PubMed Central

Vargas, Angélica; Felknor, Sarah A

2012-01-01

Background Evaluation of psychosocial factors requires instruments that measure dynamic complexities. This study explains the design of a set of questionnaires to evaluate work and non-work psychosocial risk factors for stress-related illnesses. Methods The measurement model was based on a review of literature. Content validity was performed by experts and cognitive interviews. Pilot testing was carried out with a convenience sample of 132 workers. Cronbach’s alpha evaluated internal consistency and concurrent validity was estimated by Spearman correlation coefficients. Results Three questionnaires were constructed to evaluate exposure to work and non-work risk factors. Content validity improved the questionnaires coherence with the measurement model. Internal consistency was adequate (α=0.85–0.95). Concurrent validity resulted in moderate correlations of psychosocial factors with stress symptoms. Conclusions Questionnaires´ content reflected a wide spectrum of psychosocial factors sources. Cognitive interviews improved understanding of questions and dimensions. The structure of the measurement model was confirmed. PMID:22628068

Polarizable molecular interactions in condensed phase and their equivalent nonpolarizable models.

PubMed

Leontyev, Igor V; Stuchebrukhov, Alexei A

2014-07-07

Earlier, using phenomenological approach, we showed that in some cases polarizable models of condensed phase systems can be reduced to nonpolarizable equivalent models with scaled charges. Examples of such systems include ionic liquids, TIPnP-type models of water, protein force fields, and others, where interactions and dynamics of inherently polarizable species can be accurately described by nonpolarizable models. To describe electrostatic interactions, the effective charges of simple ionic liquids are obtained by scaling the actual charges of ions by a factor of 1/√(ε(el)), which is due to electronic polarization screening effect; the scaling factor of neutral species is more complicated. Here, using several theoretical models, we examine how exactly the scaling factors appear in theory, and how, and under what conditions, polarizable Hamiltonians are reduced to nonpolarizable ones. These models allow one to trace the origin of the scaling factors, determine their values, and obtain important insights on the nature of polarizable interactions in condensed matter systems.

Dynamic Modelling of Embeddable Piezoceramic Transducers

PubMed Central

Li, Xu; Li, Hongnan; Wang, Zhijie; Song, Gangbing

2017-01-01

Embedded Lead Zirconate Titanate (PZT) transducers have been widely used in research related to monitoring the health status of concrete structures. This paper presents a dynamic model of an embeddable PZT transducer with a waterproof layer and a protecting layer. The proposed model is verified by finite-element method (FEM). Based on the proposed model, the factors influencing the dynamic property of the embeddable PZT transducers, which include the material and thickness of the protecting layer, the material and thickness of the waterproof layer, and the thickness of the PZT, are analyzed. These analyses are further validated by a series of dynamic stress transfer experiments on embeddable PZT transducers. The results show that the excitation frequency can significantly affect the stress transfer of the PZT transducer in terms of both amplitude and signal phase. The natural frequency in the poling direction for the PZT transducer is affected by the material properties and the thickness of the waterproof and protecting layers. The studies in this paper will provide a scientific basis to design embeddable PZT transducers with special functions. PMID:29206150

Dynamic analysis of the combinatorial regulation involving transcription factors and microRNAs in cell fate decisions.

PubMed

Yan, Fang; Liu, Haihong; Liu, Zengrong

2014-01-01

P53 and E2F1 are critical transcription factors involved in the choices between different cell fates including cell differentiation, cell cycle arrest or apoptosis. Recent experiments have shown that two families of microRNAs (miRNAs), p53-responsive miR34 (miRNA-34 a, b and c) and E2F1-inducible miR449 (miRNA-449 a, b and c) are potent inducers of these different fates and might have an important role in sensitizing cancer cells to drug treatment and tumor suppression. Identifying the mechanisms responsible for the combinatorial regulatory roles of these two transcription factors and two miRNAs is an important and challenging problem. Here, based in part on the model proposed in Tongli Zhang et al. (2007), we developed a mathematical model of the decision process and explored the combinatorial regulation between these two transcription factors and two miRNAs in response to DNA damage. By analyzing nonlinear dynamic behaviors of the model, we found that p53 exhibits pulsatile behavior. Moreover, a comparison is given to reveal the subtle differences of the cell fate decision process between regulation and deregulation of miR34 on E2F1. It predicts that miR34 plays a critical role in promoting cell cycle arrest. In addition, a computer simulation result also predicts that the miR449 is necessary for apoptosis in response to sustained DNA damage. In agreement with experimental observations, our model can account for the intricate regulatory relationship between these two transcription factors and two miRNAs in the cell fate decision process after DNA damage. These theoretical results indicate that miR34 and miR449 are effective tumor suppressors and play critical roles in cell fate decisions. The work provides a dynamic mechanism that shows how cell fate decisions are coordinated by two transcription factors and two miRNAs. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Computational Proteomics, Systems Biology and Clinical Implications. Guest Editor: Yudong Cai. Crown Copyright © 2013. All rights reserved.

The Problem of Auto-Correlation in Parasitology

PubMed Central

Pollitt, Laura C.; Reece, Sarah E.; Mideo, Nicole; Nussey, Daniel H.; Colegrave, Nick

2012-01-01

Explaining the contribution of host and pathogen factors in driving infection dynamics is a major ambition in parasitology. There is increasing recognition that analyses based on single summary measures of an infection (e.g., peak parasitaemia) do not adequately capture infection dynamics and so, the appropriate use of statistical techniques to analyse dynamics is necessary to understand infections and, ultimately, control parasites. However, the complexities of within-host environments mean that tracking and analysing pathogen dynamics within infections and among hosts poses considerable statistical challenges. Simple statistical models make assumptions that will rarely be satisfied in data collected on host and parasite parameters. In particular, model residuals (unexplained variance in the data) should not be correlated in time or space. Here we demonstrate how failure to account for such correlations can result in incorrect biological inference from statistical analysis. We then show how mixed effects models can be used as a powerful tool to analyse such repeated measures data in the hope that this will encourage better statistical practices in parasitology. PMID:22511865

Colored Petri net modeling and simulation of signal transduction pathways.

PubMed

Lee, Dong-Yup; Zimmer, Ralf; Lee, Sang Yup; Park, Sunwon

2006-03-01

Presented herein is a methodology for quantitatively analyzing the complex signaling network by resorting to colored Petri nets (CPN). The mathematical as well as Petri net models for two basic reaction types were established, followed by the extension to a large signal transduction system stimulated by epidermal growth factor (EGF) in an application study. The CPN models based on the Petri net representation and the conservation and kinetic equations were used to examine the dynamic behavior of the EGF signaling pathway. The usefulness of Petri nets is demonstrated for the quantitative analysis of the signal transduction pathway. Moreover, the trade-offs between modeling capability and simulation efficiency of this pathway are explored, suggesting that the Petri net model can be invaluable in the initial stage of building a dynamic model.

Human factors and safety in emergency medicine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaefer, H. G.; Helmreich, R. L.; Scheidegger, D.

1994-01-01

A model based on an input process and outcome conceptualisation is suggested to address safety-relevant factors in emergency medicine. As shown in other dynamic and demanding environments, human factors play a decisive role in attaining high quality service. Attitudes held by health-care providers, organisational shells and work-cultural parameters determine communication, conflict resolution and workload distribution within and between teams. These factors should be taken into account to improve outcomes such as operational integrity, job satisfaction and morale.

Modeling the Dynamics of Disease States in Depression

PubMed Central

Demic, Selver; Cheng, Sen

2014-01-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common and costly disorder associated with considerable morbidity, disability, and risk for suicide. The disorder is clinically and etiologically heterogeneous. Despite intense research efforts, the response rates of antidepressant treatments are relatively low and the etiology and progression of MDD remain poorly understood. Here we use computational modeling to advance our understanding of MDD. First, we propose a systematic and comprehensive definition of disease states, which is based on a type of mathematical model called a finite-state machine. Second, we propose a dynamical systems model for the progression, or dynamics, of MDD. The model is abstract and combines several major factors (mechanisms) that influence the dynamics of MDD. We study under what conditions the model can account for the occurrence and recurrence of depressive episodes and how we can model the effects of antidepressant treatments and cognitive behavioral therapy within the same dynamical systems model through changing a small subset of parameters. Our computational modeling suggests several predictions about MDD. Patients who suffer from depression can be divided into two sub-populations: a high-risk sub-population that has a high risk of developing chronic depression and a low-risk sub-population, in which patients develop depression stochastically with low probability. The success of antidepressant treatment is stochastic, leading to widely different times-to-remission in otherwise identical patients. While the specific details of our model might be subjected to criticism and revisions, our approach shows the potential power of computationally modeling depression and the need for different type of quantitative data for understanding depression. PMID:25330102

Self-organized Criticality in Hierarchical Brain Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qiu-Ying; Zhang, Ying-Yue; Chen, Tian-Lun

2008-11-01

It is shown that the cortical brain network of the macaque displays a hierarchically clustered organization and the neuron network shows small-world properties. Now the two factors will be considered in our model and the dynamical behavior of the model will be studied. We study the characters of the model and find that the distribution of avalanche size of the model follows power-law behavior.

Low-frequency fluctuations in vertical cavity lasers: Experiments versus Lang-Kobayashi dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Torcini, Alessandro; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Firenze, via Sansone 1, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino; Barland, Stephane

2006-12-15

The limits of applicability of the Lang-Kobayashi (LK) model for a semiconductor laser with optical feedback are analyzed. The model equations, equipped with realistic values of the parameters, are investigated below the solitary laser threshold where low-frequency fluctuations (LFF's) are usually observed. The numerical findings are compared with experimental data obtained for the selected polarization mode from a vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) subject to polarization selective external feedback. The comparison reveals the bounds within which the dynamics of the LK model can be considered as realistic. In particular, it clearly demonstrates that the deterministic LK model, for realisticmore » values of the linewidth enhancement factor {alpha}, reproduces the LFF's only as a transient dynamics towards one of the stationary modes with maximal gain. A reasonable reproduction of real data from VCSEL's can be obtained only by considering the noisy LK or alternatively deterministic LK model for extremely high {alpha} values.« less

Community Microgrid Scheduling Considering Network Operational Constraints and Building Thermal Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Guodong; Ollis, Thomas B.; Xiao, Bailu

Here, this paper proposes a Mixed Integer Conic Programming (MICP) model for community microgrids considering the network operational constraints and building thermal dynamics. The proposed optimization model optimizes not only the operating cost, including fuel cost, purchasing cost, battery degradation cost, voluntary load shedding cost and the cost associated with customer discomfort due to room temperature deviation from the set point, but also several performance indices, including voltage deviation, network power loss and power factor at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC). In particular, the detailed thermal dynamic model of buildings is integrated into the distribution optimal power flow (D-OPF)more » model for the optimal operation of community microgrids. The heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems can be scheduled intelligently to reduce the electricity cost while maintaining the indoor temperature in the comfort range set by customers. Numerical simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed model and significant saving in electricity cost could be achieved with network operational constraints satisfied.« less

Water infiltration in prewetted porous media: dynamic capillary pressure and Green-Ampt modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, S.; Hilpert, M.

2013-12-01

Recently, an experimental study has shown that the modified Green-Ampt (GA) model, which accounts for a velocity-dependent capillary pressure, can describe water infiltration in dry sand columns better than the classical GA model. Studies have also shown that the initial water content of prewetted porous media affects the dynamic capillary pressure during infiltration. In this study, we performed a series of downward water infiltration experiments in prewetted sand columns for four different initial water contents: 0%, 3.3%, 6.5%, and 13.8%. We also used three different ponding heights: 10 cm, 20 cm, and 40 cm. As expected, an increase in ponding height resulted in a monotonic increase in cumulative infiltration. However, we found anomalous behavior, in that the cumulative infiltration did not monotonically decrease as the initial water content increased. When modeling the experiments with the modified GA approach, we linked this anomalous behavior to the reduction factor in the model for dynamic capillary pressure that is a function of initial water content.

Community Microgrid Scheduling Considering Network Operational Constraints and Building Thermal Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Liu, Guodong; Ollis, Thomas B.; Xiao, Bailu; ...

2017-10-10

Here, this paper proposes a Mixed Integer Conic Programming (MICP) model for community microgrids considering the network operational constraints and building thermal dynamics. The proposed optimization model optimizes not only the operating cost, including fuel cost, purchasing cost, battery degradation cost, voluntary load shedding cost and the cost associated with customer discomfort due to room temperature deviation from the set point, but also several performance indices, including voltage deviation, network power loss and power factor at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC). In particular, the detailed thermal dynamic model of buildings is integrated into the distribution optimal power flow (D-OPF)more » model for the optimal operation of community microgrids. The heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems can be scheduled intelligently to reduce the electricity cost while maintaining the indoor temperature in the comfort range set by customers. Numerical simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed model and significant saving in electricity cost could be achieved with network operational constraints satisfied.« less

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

[Wave-type time series variation of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors].

PubMed

Bi, Xiaoli; Wang, Hui; Ge, Jianping

2005-02-01

Based on the 1992-1996 data of 1 km monthly NDVI and those of the monthly precipitation and mean temperature collected by 400 standard meteorological stations in China, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors in different climate districts of this country. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between monthly precipitations and NDVI. The wave-type time series model could simulate well the temporal dynamic changes of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors, and the simulated results of the correlation between NDVI and precipitation was better than that between NDVI and temperature. The correlation coefficients (R2) were 0.91 and 0.86, respectively for the whole country.

An action potential-driven model of soleus muscle activation dynamics for locomotor-like movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hojeong; Sandercock, Thomas G.; Heckman, C. J.

2015-08-01

Objective. The goal of this study was to develop a physiologically plausible, computationally robust model for muscle activation dynamics (A(t)) under physiologically relevant excitation and movement. Approach. The interaction of excitation and movement on A(t) was investigated comparing the force production between a cat soleus muscle and its Hill-type model. For capturing A(t) under excitation and movement variation, a modular modeling framework was proposed comprising of three compartments: (1) spikes-to-[Ca2+]; (2) [Ca2+]-to-A; and (3) A-to-force transformation. The individual signal transformations were modeled based on physiological factors so that the parameter values could be separately determined for individual modules directly based on experimental data. Main results. The strong dependency of A(t) on excitation frequency and muscle length was found during both isometric and dynamically-moving contractions. The identified dependencies of A(t) under the static and dynamic conditions could be incorporated in the modular modeling framework by modulating the model parameters as a function of movement input. The new modeling approach was also applicable to cat soleus muscles producing waveforms independent of those used to set the model parameters. Significance. This study provides a modeling framework for spike-driven muscle responses during movement, that is suitable not only for insights into molecular mechanisms underlying muscle behaviors but also for large scale simulations.

Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Sung Wook

This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

Mechanistic modelling of the inhibitory effect of pH on microbial growth.

PubMed

Akkermans, Simen; Van Impe, Jan F

2018-06-01

Modelling and simulation of microbial dynamics as a function of processing, transportation and storage conditions is a useful tool to improve microbial food safety and quality. The goal of this research is to improve an existing methodology for building mechanistic predictive models based on the environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions on microbial dynamics is often described by combining the separate effects in a multiplicative way (gamma concept). This idea was extended further in this work by including the effects of the lag and stationary growth phases on microbial growth rate as independent gamma factors. A mechanistic description of the stationary phase as a function of pH was included, based on a novel class of models that consider product inhibition. Experimental results on Escherichia coli growth dynamics indicated that also the parameters of the product inhibition equations can be modelled with the gamma approach. This work has extended a modelling methodology, resulting in predictive models that are (i) mechanistically inspired, (ii) easily identifiable with a limited work load and (iii) easily extended to additional environmental conditions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Systematic parameter estimation in data-rich environments for cell signalling dynamics

PubMed Central

Nim, Tri Hieu; Luo, Le; Clément, Marie-Véronique; White, Jacob K.; Tucker-Kellogg, Lisa

2013-01-01

Motivation: Computational models of biological signalling networks, based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs), have generated many insights into cellular dynamics, but the model-building process typically requires estimating rate parameters based on experimentally observed concentrations. New proteomic methods can measure concentrations for all molecular species in a pathway; this creates a new opportunity to decompose the optimization of rate parameters. Results: In contrast with conventional parameter estimation methods that minimize the disagreement between simulated and observed concentrations, the SPEDRE method fits spline curves through observed concentration points, estimates derivatives and then matches the derivatives to the production and consumption of each species. This reformulation of the problem permits an extreme decomposition of the high-dimensional optimization into a product of low-dimensional factors, each factor enforcing the equality of one ODE at one time slice. Coarsely discretized solutions to the factors can be computed systematically. Then the discrete solutions are combined using loopy belief propagation, and refined using local optimization. SPEDRE has unique asymptotic behaviour with runtime polynomial in the number of molecules and timepoints, but exponential in the degree of the biochemical network. SPEDRE performance is comparatively evaluated on a novel model of Akt activation dynamics including redox-mediated inactivation of PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homologue). Availability and implementation: Web service, software and supplementary information are available at www.LtkLab.org/SPEDRE Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. Contact: LisaTK@nus.edu.sg PMID:23426255

Dynamic and quantitative method of analyzing service consistency evolution based on extended hierarchical finite state automata.

PubMed

Fan, Linjun; Tang, Jun; Ling, Yunxiang; Li, Benxian

2014-01-01

This paper is concerned with the dynamic evolution analysis and quantitative measurement of primary factors that cause service inconsistency in service-oriented distributed simulation applications (SODSA). Traditional methods are mostly qualitative and empirical, and they do not consider the dynamic disturbances among factors in service's evolution behaviors such as producing, publishing, calling, and maintenance. Moreover, SODSA are rapidly evolving in terms of large-scale, reusable, compositional, pervasive, and flexible features, which presents difficulties in the usage of traditional analysis methods. To resolve these problems, a novel dynamic evolution model extended hierarchical service-finite state automata (EHS-FSA) is constructed based on finite state automata (FSA), which formally depict overall changing processes of service consistency states. And also the service consistency evolution algorithms (SCEAs) based on EHS-FSA are developed to quantitatively assess these impact factors. Experimental results show that the bad reusability (17.93% on average) is the biggest influential factor, the noncomposition of atomic services (13.12%) is the second biggest one, and the service version's confusion (1.2%) is the smallest one. Compared with previous qualitative analysis, SCEAs present good effectiveness and feasibility. This research can guide the engineers of service consistency technologies toward obtaining a higher level of consistency in SODSA.

Dynamic and Quantitative Method of Analyzing Service Consistency Evolution Based on Extended Hierarchical Finite State Automata

PubMed Central

Fan, Linjun; Tang, Jun; Ling, Yunxiang; Li, Benxian

2014-01-01

This paper is concerned with the dynamic evolution analysis and quantitative measurement of primary factors that cause service inconsistency in service-oriented distributed simulation applications (SODSA). Traditional methods are mostly qualitative and empirical, and they do not consider the dynamic disturbances among factors in service's evolution behaviors such as producing, publishing, calling, and maintenance. Moreover, SODSA are rapidly evolving in terms of large-scale, reusable, compositional, pervasive, and flexible features, which presents difficulties in the usage of traditional analysis methods. To resolve these problems, a novel dynamic evolution model extended hierarchical service-finite state automata (EHS-FSA) is constructed based on finite state automata (FSA), which formally depict overall changing processes of service consistency states. And also the service consistency evolution algorithms (SCEAs) based on EHS-FSA are developed to quantitatively assess these impact factors. Experimental results show that the bad reusability (17.93% on average) is the biggest influential factor, the noncomposition of atomic services (13.12%) is the second biggest one, and the service version's confusion (1.2%) is the smallest one. Compared with previous qualitative analysis, SCEAs present good effectiveness and feasibility. This research can guide the engineers of service consistency technologies toward obtaining a higher level of consistency in SODSA. PMID:24772033

Social determinants of health inequalities: towards a theoretical perspective using systems science.

PubMed

Jayasinghe, Saroj

2015-08-25

A systems approach offers a novel conceptualization to natural and social systems. In recent years, this has led to perceiving population health outcomes as an emergent property of a dynamic and open, complex adaptive system. The current paper explores these themes further and applies the principles of systems approach and complexity science (i.e. systems science) to conceptualize social determinants of health inequalities. The conceptualization can be done in two steps: viewing health inequalities from a systems approach and extending it to include complexity science. Systems approach views health inequalities as patterns within the larger rubric of other facets of the human condition, such as educational outcomes and economic development. This anlysis requires more sophisticated models such as systems dynamic models. An extension of the approach is to view systems as complex adaptive systems, i.e. systems that are 'open' and adapt to the environment. They consist of dynamic adapting subsystems that exhibit non-linear interactions, while being 'open' to a similarly dynamic environment of interconnected systems. They exhibit emergent properties that cannot be estimated with precision by using the known interactions among its components (such as economic development, political freedom, health system, culture etc.). Different combinations of the same bundle of factors or determinants give rise to similar patterns or outcomes (i.e. property of convergence), and minor variations in the initial condition could give rise to widely divergent outcomes. Novel approaches using computer simulation models (e.g. agent-based models) would shed light on possible mechanisms as to how factors or determinants interact and lead to emergent patterns of health inequalities of populations.

In-Stream Sediment Dynamics for predicted environmental concentration calculations of plant protection products in the FOCUSSW Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strehmel, Alexander; Erzgräber, Beate; Gottesbüren, Bernhard

2016-04-01

The exposure assessment for the EU registration procedure of plant protection products (PPP), which is based on the 'Forum for the co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their use' (FOCUS), currently considers only periods of 12-16 months for the exposure assessment in surface water bodies. However, in a recent scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) it is argued that in a multi-year exposure assessment, the accumulation of PPP substances in river sediment may be a relevant process. Therefore, the EFSA proposed to introduce a sediment accumulation factor in order to account for enrichment of PPP substances over several years in the sediment. The calculation of this accumulation factor, however, would consider degradation in sediment as the only dissipation path, and does not take into account riverine sediment dynamics. In order to assess the influence of deposition and the possible extent of substance accumulation in the sediment phase, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was employed for an assessment of in-stream sediment dynamics of the FOCUS stream scenarios. The model was parameterized according to the stream characteristics of the FOCUS scenarios and was run over a period of 20 years. The results show that with the distribution of grain sizes and the ranges of flow velocity in the FOCUS streams the main sediment process in the streams is transport. First modeling results suggest that about 80% of the eroded sediment mass from the adjacent field are transported to the downstream end of the stream and out of the system, while only about 20% are deposited in the river bed. At the same time, only about 30% of in-stream sediment mass stems from the adjacent field and is associated with PPP substance, while the remaining sediment consists of the substance-free base sediment concentration regarded in the scenarios. With this, the hydraulic modelling approach is able to support the development of a meaningful sediment accumulation factor by considering in-stream sediment dynamics and estimating long-term sediment deposition and substance burial in the river bed. At last, the study shows that the development of a scientifically sound and justifiable sediment accumulation factor for a long-term exposure assessment is only possible by considering the relevant riverine sediment processes.

Single ion dynamics in molten sodium bromide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alcaraz, O.; Trullas, J.; Demmel, F.

We present a study on the single ion dynamics in the molten alkali halide NaBr. Quasielastic neutron scattering was employed to extract the self-diffusion coefficient of the sodium ions at three temperatures. Molecular dynamics simulations using rigid and polarizable ion models have been performed in parallel to extract the sodium and bromide single dynamics and ionic conductivities. Two methods have been employed to derive the ion diffusion, calculating the mean squared displacements and the velocity autocorrelation functions, as well as analysing the increase of the line widths of the self-dynamic structure factors. The sodium diffusion coefficients show a remarkable goodmore » agreement between experiment and simulation utilising the polarisable potential.« less

Many-body dynamics of chemically propelled nanomotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colberg, Peter H.; Kapral, Raymond

2017-08-01

The collective behavior of chemically propelled sphere-dimer motors made from linked catalytic and noncatalytic spheres in a quasi-two-dimensional confined geometry is studied using a coarse-grained microscopic dynamical model. Chemical reactions at the catalytic spheres that convert fuel to product generate forces that couple to solvent degrees of freedom as a consequence of momentum conservation in the microscopic dynamics. The collective behavior of the many-body system is influenced by direct intermolecular interactions among the motors, chemotactic effects due to chemical gradients, hydrodynamic coupling, and thermal noise. Segregation into high and low density phases and globally homogeneous states with strong fluctuations are investigated as functions of the motor characteristics. Factors contributing to this behavior are discussed in the context of active Brownian models.

Experimental Beetle Metapopulations Respond Positively to Dynamic Landscapes and Reduced Connectivity

PubMed Central

Govindan, Byju N.; Swihart, Robert K.

2012-01-01

Interactive effects of multiple environmental factors on metapopulation dynamics have received scant attention. We designed a laboratory study to test hypotheses regarding interactive effects of factors affecting the metapopulation dynamics of red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum. Within a four-patch landscape we modified resource level (constant and diminishing), patch connectivity (high and low) and patch configuration (static and dynamic) to conduct a 23 factorial experiment, consisting of 8 metapopulations, each with 3 replicates. For comparison, two control populations consisting of isolated and static subpopulations were provided with resources at constant or diminishing levels. Longitudinal data from 22 tri-weekly counts of beetle abundance were analyzed using Bayesian Poisson generalized linear mixed models to estimate additive and interactive effects of factors affecting abundance. Constant resource levels, low connectivity and dynamic patches yielded greater levels of adult beetle abundance. For a given resource level, frequency of colonization exceeded extinction in landscapes with dynamic patches when connectivity was low, thereby promoting greater patch occupancy. Negative density dependence of pupae on adults occurred and was stronger in landscapes with low connectivity and constant resources; these metapopulations also demonstrated greatest stability. Metapopulations in control landscapes went extinct quickly, denoting lower persistence than comparable landscapes with low connectivity. When landscape carrying capacity was constant, habitat destruction coupled with low connectivity created asynchronous local dynamics and refugia within which cannibalism of pupae was reduced. Increasing connectivity may be counter-productive and habitat destruction/recreation may be beneficial to species in some contexts. PMID:22509314

Prediction of inspiratory flow shapes during sleep with a mathematic model of upper airway forces.

PubMed

Aittokallio, Tero; Gyllenberg, Mats; Saaresranta, Tarja; Polo, Olli

2003-11-01

To predict the airflow dynamics during sleep using a mathematic model that incorporates a number of static and dynamic upper airway forces, and to compare the numerical results to clinical flow data recorded from patients with sleep-disordered breathing on and off various treatment options. Upper airway performance was modeled in virtual subjects characterized by parameter settings that describe common combinations of risk factors predisposing to upper airway collapse during sleep. The treatments effect were induced by relevant changes of the initial parameter values. Computer simulations at our website (http://www.utu.fi/ml/sovmat/bio/). Risk factors considered in the simulation settings were sex, obesity, pharyngeal collapsibility, and decreased phasic activity of pharyngeal muscles. The effects of weight loss, pharyngeal surgery, nasal continuous positive airway pressure, and respiratory stimulation on the inspiratory flow characteristics were tested with the model. Numerical predictions were investigated by means of 3 measurable inspiratory airflow characteristics: initial slope, total volume, and flow shape. The model was able to reproduce the inspiratory flow shape characteristics that have previously been described in the literature. Simulation results also supported the observations that a multitude of factors underlie the pharyngeal collapse and, therefore, certain medical therapies that are effective in some conditions may prove ineffective in others. A mathematic model integrating the current knowledge of upper airway physiology is able to predict individual treatment responses. The model provides a framework for designing novel and potentially feasible treatment alternatives for sleep-disordered breathing.

Peptide crystal simulations reveal hidden dynamics

PubMed Central

Janowski, Pawel A.; Cerutti, David S.; Holton, James; Case, David A.

2013-01-01

Molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecular crystals at atomic resolution have the potential to recover information on dynamics and heterogeneity hidden in the X-ray diffraction data. We present here 9.6 microseconds of dynamics in a small helical peptide crystal with 36 independent copies of the unit cell. The average simulation structure agrees with experiment to within 0.28 Å backbone and 0.42 Å all-atom rmsd; a model refined against the average simulation density agrees with the experimental structure to within 0.20 Å backbone and 0.33 Å all-atom rmsd. The R-factor between the experimental structure factors and those derived from this unrestrained simulation is 23% to 1.0 Å resolution. The B-factors for most heavy atoms agree well with experiment (Pearson correlation of 0.90), but B-factors obtained by refinement against the average simulation density underestimate the coordinate fluctuations in the underlying simulation where the simulation samples alternate conformations. A dynamic flow of water molecules through channels within the crystal lattice is observed, yet the average water density is in remarkable agreement with experiment. A minor population of unit cells is characterized by reduced water content, 310 helical propensity and a gauche(−) side-chain rotamer for one of the valine residues. Careful examination of the experimental data suggests that transitions of the helices are a simulation artifact, although there is indeed evidence for alternate valine conformers and variable water content. This study highlights the potential for crystal simulations to detect dynamics and heterogeneity in experimental diffraction data, as well as to validate computational chemistry methods. PMID:23631449

Computational modelling of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Parton, Andrew; McGilligan, Victoria; O'Kane, Maurice; Baldrick, Francina R; Watterson, Steven

2016-07-01

Atherosclerosis is one of the principle pathologies of cardiovascular disease with blood cholesterol a significant risk factor. The World Health Organization estimates that approximately 2.5 million deaths occur annually because of the risk from elevated cholesterol, with 39% of adults worldwide at future risk. Atherosclerosis emerges from the combination of many dynamical factors, including haemodynamics, endothelial damage, innate immunity and sterol biochemistry. Despite its significance to public health, the dynamics that drive atherosclerosis remain poorly understood. As a disease that depends on multiple factors operating on different length scales, the natural framework to apply to atherosclerosis is mathematical and computational modelling. A computational model provides an integrated description of the disease and serves as an in silico experimental system from which we can learn about the disease and develop therapeutic hypotheses. Although the work completed in this area to date has been limited, there are clear signs that interest is growing and that a nascent field is establishing itself. This article discusses the current state of modelling in this area, bringing together many recent results for the first time. We review the work that has been done, discuss its scope and highlight the gaps in our understanding that could yield future opportunities. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dynamic Regulation of Tgf-B Signaling by Tif1γ: A Computational Approach

PubMed Central

Andrieux, Geoffroy; Fattet, Laurent; Le Borgne, Michel; Rimokh, Ruth; Théret, Nathalie

2012-01-01

TIF1γ (Transcriptional Intermediary Factor 1 γ) has been implicated in Smad-dependent signaling by Transforming Growth Factor beta (TGF-β). Paradoxically, TIF1γ functions both as a transcriptional repressor or as an alternative transcription factor that promotes TGF-β signaling. Using ordinary differential-equation models, we have investigated the effect of TIF1γ on the dynamics of TGF-β signaling. An integrative model that includes the formation of transient TIF1γ-Smad2-Smad4 ternary complexes is the only one that can account for TGF-β signaling compatible with the different observations reported for TIF1γ. In addition, our model predicts that varying TIF1γ/Smad4 ratios play a critical role in the modulation of the transcriptional signal induced by TGF-β, especially for short stimulation times that mediate higher threshold responses. Chromatin immunoprecipitation analyses and quantification of the expression of TGF-β target genes as a function TIF1γ/Smad4 ratios fully validate this hypothesis. Our integrative model, which successfully unifies the seemingly opposite roles of TIF1γ, also reveals how changing TIF1γ/Smad4 ratios affect the cellular response to stimulation by TGF-β, accounting for a highly graded determination of cell fate. PMID:22461896

Model reduction of dynamical systems by proper orthogonal decomposition: Error bounds and comparison of methods using snapshots from the solution and the time derivatives [Proper orthogonal decomposition model reduction of dynamical systems: error bounds and comparison of methods using snapshots from the solution and the time derivatives

DOE PAGES

Kostova-Vassilevska, Tanya; Oxberry, Geoffrey M.

2017-09-17

In this study, we consider two proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) methods for dimension reduction of dynamical systems. The first method (M1) uses only time snapshots of the solution, while the second method (M2) augments the snapshot set with time-derivative snapshots. The goal of the paper is to analyze and compare the approximation errors resulting from the two methods by using error bounds. We derive several new bounds of the error from POD model reduction by each of the two methods. The new error bounds involve a multiplicative factor depending on the time steps between the snapshots. For method M1 themore » factor depends on the second power of the time step, while for method 2 the dependence is on the fourth power of the time step, suggesting that method M2 can be more accurate for small between-snapshot intervals. However, three other factors also affect the size of the error bounds. These include (i) the norm of the second (for M1) and fourth derivatives (M2); (ii) the first neglected singular value and (iii) the spectral properties of the projection of the system’s Jacobian in the reduced space. Because of the interplay of these factors neither method is more accurate than the other in all cases. Finally, we present numerical examples demonstrating that when the number of collected snapshots is small and the first neglected singular value has a value of zero, method M2 results in a better approximation.« less

Model reduction of dynamical systems by proper orthogonal decomposition: Error bounds and comparison of methods using snapshots from the solution and the time derivatives [Proper orthogonal decomposition model reduction of dynamical systems: error bounds and comparison of methods using snapshots from the solution and the time derivatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova-Vassilevska, Tanya; Oxberry, Geoffrey M.

In this study, we consider two proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) methods for dimension reduction of dynamical systems. The first method (M1) uses only time snapshots of the solution, while the second method (M2) augments the snapshot set with time-derivative snapshots. The goal of the paper is to analyze and compare the approximation errors resulting from the two methods by using error bounds. We derive several new bounds of the error from POD model reduction by each of the two methods. The new error bounds involve a multiplicative factor depending on the time steps between the snapshots. For method M1 themore » factor depends on the second power of the time step, while for method 2 the dependence is on the fourth power of the time step, suggesting that method M2 can be more accurate for small between-snapshot intervals. However, three other factors also affect the size of the error bounds. These include (i) the norm of the second (for M1) and fourth derivatives (M2); (ii) the first neglected singular value and (iii) the spectral properties of the projection of the system’s Jacobian in the reduced space. Because of the interplay of these factors neither method is more accurate than the other in all cases. Finally, we present numerical examples demonstrating that when the number of collected snapshots is small and the first neglected singular value has a value of zero, method M2 results in a better approximation.« less

Understanding the dynamical structure of pulsating stars: The Baade-Wesselink projection factor of the δ Scuti stars AI Velorum and β Cassiopeiae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guiglion, G.; Nardetto, N.; Mathias, P.; Domiciano de Souza, A.; Poretti, E.; Rainer, M.; Fokin, A.; Mourard, D.; Gieren, W.

2013-02-01

Aims: The Baade-Wesselink method of distance determination is based on the oscillations of pulsating stars. The key parameter of this method is the projection factor used to convert the radial velocity into the pulsation velocity. Our analysis was aimed at deriving for the first time the projection factor of δ Scuti stars, using high-resolution spectra of the high-amplitude pulsator AI Vel and of the fast rotator β Cas. Methods: The geometric component of the projection factor (i.e. p0) was calculated using a limb-darkening model of the intensity distribution for AI Vel, and a fast-rotator model for β Cas. Then, using SOPHIE/OHP data for β Cas and HARPS/ESO data for AI Vel, we compared the radial velocity curves of several spectral lines forming at different levels in the atmosphere and derived the velocity gradient associated to the spectral-line-forming regions in the atmosphere of the star. This velocity gradient was used to derive a dynamical projection factor p. Results: We find a flat velocity gradient for both stars and finally p = p0 = 1.44 for AI Vel and p = p0 = 1.41 for β Cas. By comparing Cepheids and δ Scuti stars, these results bring valuable insights into the dynamical structure of pulsating star atmospheres. They suggest that the period-projection factor relation derived for Cepheids is also applicable to δ Scuti stars pulsating in a dominant radial mode. This work uses observations made with the HARPS instrument at the 3.6 m telescope (La Silla, Chile) in the framework of the LP185.D-0056 and with the SOPHIE instrument at OHP (France).

Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens.

PubMed

Norman, R A; Worton, A J; Gilbert, L

2016-06-01

Ticks are vectors of pathogens which are important both with respect to human health and economically. They have a complex life cycle requiring several blood meals throughout their life. These blood meals take place on different individual hosts and potentially on different host species. Their life cycle is also dependent on environmental conditions such as the temperature and habitat type. Mathematical models have been used for the more than 30 years to help us understand how tick dynamics are dependent on these environmental factors and host availability. In this paper, we review models of tick dynamics and summarize the main results. This summary is split into two parts, one which looks at tick dynamics and one which looks at tick-borne pathogens. In general, the models of tick dynamics are used to determine when the peak in tick densities is likely to occur in the year and how that changes with environmental conditions. The models of tick-borne pathogens focus more on the conditions under which the pathogen can persist and how host population densities might be manipulated to control these pathogens. In the final section of the paper, we identify gaps in the current knowledge and future modelling approaches. These include spatial models linked to environmental information and Geographic Information System maps, and development of new modelling techniques which model tick densities per host more explicitly.

Modeling Heterogeneity in Momentary Interpersonal and Affective Dynamic Processes in Borderline Personality Disorder

PubMed Central

Wright, Aidan G. C.; Hallquist, Michael N.; Stepp, Stephanie D.; Scott, Lori N.; Beeney, Joseph E.; Lazarus, Sophie A.; Pilkonis, Paul A.

2016-01-01

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is a diagnosis defined by impairments in several dynamic processes (e.g., interpersonal relating, affect regulation, behavioral control). Theories of BPD emphasize that these impairments appear in specific contexts, and emerging results confirm this view. At the same time, BPD is a complex construct that encompasses individuals with heterogeneous pathology. These features—dynamic processes, situational specificity, and individual heterogeneity—pose significant assessment challenges. In the current study, we demonstrate assessment and analytic methods that capture both between-person differences and within-person changes over time. Twenty-five participants diagnosed with BPD completed event-contingent, ambulatory assessment protocols over 21 days. We used p-technique factor analyses to identify person-specific psychological structures consistent with clinical theories of personality. Five exemplar cases are selected and presented in detail to showcase the potential utility of these methods. The presented cases' factor structures reflect not only heterogeneity but also suggest points of convergence. The factors also demonstrated significant associations with important clinical targets (self-harm, interpersonal violence). PMID:27317561

A dynamic evolution model of human opinion as affected by advertising

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Gui-Xun; Liu, Yun; Zeng, Qing-An; Diao, Su-Meng; Xiong, Fei

2014-11-01

We propose a new model to investigate the dynamics of human opinion as affected by advertising, based on the main idea of the CODA model and taking into account two practical factors: one is that the marginal influence of an additional friend will decrease with an increasing number of friends; the other is the decline of memory over time. Simulations show several significant conclusions for both advertising agencies and the general public. A small difference of advertising’s influence on individuals or advertising coverage will result in significantly different advertising effectiveness within a certain interval of value. Compared to the value of advertising’s influence on individuals, the advertising coverage plays a more important role due to the exponential decay of memory. Meanwhile, some of the obtained results are in accordance with people’s daily cognition about advertising. The real key factor in determining the success of advertising is the intensity of exchanging opinions, and people’s external actions always follow their internal opinions. Negative opinions also play an important role.

Research on robust optimization of emergency logistics network considering the time dependence characteristic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, Qingrong; ZHU, Changfeng; LI, Ying; ZHANG, Zhengkun

2017-06-01

Considering the time dependence of emergency logistic network and complexity of the environment that the network exists in, in this paper the time dependent network optimization theory and robust discrete optimization theory are combined, and the emergency logistics dynamic network optimization model with characteristics of robustness is built to maximize the timeliness of emergency logistics. On this basis, considering the complexity of dynamic network and the time dependence of edge weight, an improved ant colony algorithm is proposed to realize the coupling of the optimization algorithm and the network time dependence and robustness. Finally, a case study has been carried out in order to testify validity of this robustness optimization model and its algorithm, and the value of different regulation factors was analyzed considering the importance of the value of the control factor in solving the optimal path. Analysis results show that this model and its algorithm above-mentioned have good timeliness and strong robustness.

Specific Non-Local Interactions Are Not Necessary for Recovering Native Protein Dynamics

PubMed Central

Dasgupta, Bhaskar; Kasahara, Kota; Kamiya, Narutoshi; Nakamura, Haruki; Kinjo, Akira R.

2014-01-01

The elastic network model (ENM) is a widely used method to study native protein dynamics by normal mode analysis (NMA). In ENM we need information about all pairwise distances, and the distance between contacting atoms is restrained to the native value. Therefore ENM requires O(N2) information to realize its dynamics for a protein consisting of N amino acid residues. To see if (or to what extent) such a large amount of specific structural information is required to realize native protein dynamics, here we introduce a novel model based on only O(N) restraints. This model, named the ‘contact number diffusion’ model (CND), includes specific distance restraints for only local (along the amino acid sequence) atom pairs, and semi-specific non-local restraints imposed on each atom, rather than atom pairs. The semi-specific non-local restraints are defined in terms of the non-local contact numbers of atoms. The CND model exhibits the dynamic characteristics comparable to ENM and more correlated with the explicit-solvent molecular dynamics simulation than ENM. Moreover, unrealistic surface fluctuations often observed in ENM were suppressed in CND. On the other hand, in some ligand-bound structures CND showed larger fluctuations of buried protein atoms interacting with the ligand compared to ENM. In addition, fluctuations from CND and ENM show comparable correlations with the experimental B-factor. Although there are some indications of the importance of some specific non-local interactions, the semi-specific non-local interactions are mostly sufficient for reproducing the native protein dynamics. PMID:24625758

Coupling of a distributed stakeholder-built system dynamics socio-economic model with SAHYSMOD for sustainable soil salinity management - Part 1: Model development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Prasher, Shiv; Halbe, Johannes; Malard, Julien; Albano, Raffaele

2017-08-01

Effective policies, leading to sustainable management solutions for land and water resources, require a full understanding of interactions between socio-economic and physical processes. However, the complex nature of these interactions, combined with limited stakeholder engagement, hinders the incorporation of socio-economic components into physical models. The present study addresses this challenge by integrating the physical Spatial Agro Hydro Salinity Model (SAHYSMOD) with a participatory group-built system dynamics model (GBSDM) that includes socio-economic factors. A stepwise process to quantify the GBSDM is presented, along with governing equations and model assumptions. Sub-modules of the GBSDM, describing agricultural, economic, water and farm management factors, are linked together with feedbacks and finally coupled with the physically based SAHYSMOD model through commonly used tools (i.e., MS Excel and a Python script). The overall integrated model (GBSDM-SAHYSMOD) can be used to help facilitate the role of stakeholders with limited expertise and resources in model and policy development and implementation. Following the development of the integrated model, a testing methodology was used to validate the structure and behavior of the integrated model. Model robustness under different operating conditions was also assessed. The model structure was able to produce anticipated real behaviours under the tested scenarios, from which it can be concluded that the formulated structures generate the right behaviour for the right reasons.

Dynamic characterization and modeling of potting materials for electronics assemblies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Vasant S.; Lee, Gilbert F.; Santiago, Jaime R.

2017-01-01

Prediction of survivability of encapsulated electronic components subject to impact relies on accurate modeling, which in turn needs both static and dynamic characterization of individual electronic components and encapsulation material to generate reliable material parameters for a robust material model. Current focus is on potting materials to mitigate high rate loading on impact. In this effort, difficulty arises in capturing one of the critical features characteristic of the loading environment in a high velocity impact: multiple loading events coupled with multi-axial stress states. Hence, potting materials need to be characterized well to understand its damping capacity at different frequencies and strain rates. An encapsulation scheme to protect electronic boards consists of multiple layers of filled as well as unfilled polymeric materials like Sylgard 184 and Trigger bond Epoxy # 20-3001. A combination of experiments conducted for characterization of materials used Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB), and dynamic material analyzer (DMA). For material which behaves in an ideal manner, a master curve can be fitted to Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) model. To verify the applicability of WLF model, a new temperature-time shift (TTS) macro was written to compare idealized temperature shift factor with experimental incremental shift factor. Deviations can be readily observed by comparison of experimental data with the model fit to determine if model parameters reflect the actual material behavior. Similarly, another macro written for obtaining Ogden model parameter from Hopkinson Bar tests can readily indicate deviations from experimental high strain rate data. Experimental results for different materials used for mitigating impact, and ways to combine data from DMA and Hopkinson bar together with modeling refinements are presented.

Girsanov reweighting for path ensembles and Markov state models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donati, L.; Hartmann, C.; Keller, B. G.

2017-06-01

The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor "on the fly" during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.

Cosmological models with a hybrid scale factor in an extended gravity theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, B.; Tripathy, S. K.; Tarai, Sankarsan

2018-03-01

A general formalism to investigate Bianchi type V Ih universes is developed in an extended theory of gravity. A minimally coupled geometry and matter field is considered with a rescaled function of f(R,T) substituted in place of the Ricci scalar R in the geometrical action. Dynamical aspects of the models are discussed by using a hybrid scale factor (HSF) that behaves as power law in an initial epoch and as an exponential form at late epoch. The power law behavior and the exponential behavior appear as two extreme cases of the present model.

Characterizing and Discovering Spatiotemporal Social Contact Patterns for Healthcare.

PubMed

Yang, Bo; Pei, Hongbin; Chen, Hechang; Liu, Jiming; Xia, Shang

2017-08-01

During an epidemic, the spatial, temporal and demographic patterns of disease transmission are determined by multiple factors. In addition to the physiological properties of the pathogens and hosts, the social contact of the host population, which characterizes the reciprocal exposures of individuals to infection according to their demographic structure and various social activities, are also pivotal to understanding and predicting the prevalence of infectious diseases. How social contact is measured will affect the extent to which we can forecast the dynamics of infections in the real world. Most current work focuses on modeling the spatial patterns of static social contact. In this work, we use a novel perspective to address the problem of how to characterize and measure dynamic social contact during an epidemic. We propose an epidemic-model-based tensor deconvolution framework in which the spatiotemporal patterns of social contact are represented by the factors of the tensors. These factors can be discovered using a tensor deconvolution procedure with the integration of epidemic models based on rich types of data, mainly heterogeneous outbreak surveillance data, socio-demographic census data and physiological data from medical reports. Using reproduction models that include SIR/SIS/SEIR/SEIS models as case studies, the efficacy and applications of the proposed framework are theoretically analyzed, empirically validated and demonstrated through a set of rigorous experiments using both synthetic and real-world data.

Modelling system dynamics and phytoplankton diversity at Ranchi lake using the carbon and nutrient mass balance equations.

PubMed

Mukherjee, B; Nivedita, M; Mukherjee, D

2014-05-01

Modelling system dynamics in a hyper-eutrophic lake is quite complex especially with a constant influx of detergents and sewage material which continually changes the state variables and interferes with the assessment of the chemical rhythm occurring in polluted conditions as compared to unpolluted systems. In this paper, a carbon and nutrient mass balance model for predicting system dynamics in a complex environment was studied. Studies were conducted at Ranchi lake to understand the altered environmental dynamics in hyper-eutrophic conditions, and its impact on the plankton community. The lake was monitored regularly for five years (2007 - 2011) and the data collected on the carbon flux, nitrates, phosphates and silicates was used to design a mass balance model for evaluating and predicting the system. The model was then used to correlate the chemical rhythm with that of the phytoplankton dynamics and diversity. Nitrates and phosphates were not limiting (mean nitrate and phosphate concentrations were 1.74 and 0.83 mgl⁻¹ respectively). Free carbon dioxide was found to control the system and, interacting with other parameters determined the diversity and dynamics of the plankton community. N/P ratio determined which group of phytoplankton dominated the community, above 5 it favoured the growth of chlorophyceae while below 5 cyanobacteria dominates. TOC/TIC ratio determined the abundance. The overall system was controlled by the availability of free carbon dioxide which served as a limiting factor.

Development of a vehicle-track model assembly and numerical method for simulation of wheel-rail dynamic interaction due to unsupported sleepers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jian Jun; Ahmed, A. K. W.; Rakheja, Subhash; Khajepour, Amir

2010-12-01

In practice, it is not very uncommon to find railway track systems with unsupported sleepers due to the uneven settlement of a ballasted track system. These unsupported sleepers are among the major vibration excitations for a train and track system when a train moves forwards on a track. The vibration induced by unsupported sleepers can cause a large dynamic contact force between wheels and rails. For heavily loaded high-speed trains, the deteriorated sleeper support may lead to accelerated degradation of the railway track and vehicle components, and may thus impose safety risk to the operation. This paper presents analyses of a coupled vehicle-track assembly consisting of a roll plane vehicle model, a continuous track system model and an adaptive wheel-rail contact model. In order to improve the simulation efficiency, a numerical approach based on the central finite difference method is proposed in this investigation. The developed model assembly and proposed simulation method are utilised to simulate the vehicle-track dynamic interaction in the presence of unsupported sleepers. The dynamic response in terms of the dynamic wheel-rail interaction force due to one or multiple unsupported sleepers is studied. Important factors influencing the dynamic wheel-rail interaction force in the presence of sleeper voids are also investigated. The results show that the vehicle speed, the gap size and the number of unsupported sleepers primarily dictate the magnitude of impact load which can be significant.

Insights from the docking and molecular dynamics simulation of the Phosphopantetheinyl transferase (PptT) structural model from Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

PubMed

Rohini, Karunakaran; Srikumar, Padmalayam Sadanandan

2013-01-01

A great challenge is posed to the treatment of tuberculosis due to the evolution of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drugresistant (XDR) strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in recent times. The complex cell envelope of the bacterium contains unusual structures of lipids which protects the bacterium from host enzymes and escape immune response. To overcome the drug resistance, targeting "drug targets" which have a critical role in growth and virulence factor is a novel approach for better tuberculosis treatment. The enzyme Phosphopantetheinyl transferase (PptT) is an attractive drug target as it is primarily involved in post translational modification of various types-I polyketide synthases and assembly of mycobactin, which is required for lipid virulence factors. Our in silico studies reported that the structural model of M.tuberculosis PptT characterizes the structure-function activity. The refinement of the model was carried out with molecular dynamics simulations and was analyzed with root mean square deviation (RMSD), and radius of gyration (Rg). This confirmed the structural behavior of PptT in dynamic system. Molecular docking with substrate coenzyme A (CoA) identified the binding pocket and key residues His93, Asp114 and Arg169 involved in PptT-CoA binding. In conclusion, our results show that the M.tuberculosis PptT model and critical CoA binding pocket initiate the inhibitor design of PptT towards tuberculosis treatment.

Use of combined biogeochemical model approaches and empirical data to assess critical loads of nitrogen

Treesearch

Mark Fenn; Charles Driscoll; Quingtao Zhou; Leela Rao; Thomas Meixner; Edith Allen; Fengming Yuan; Timothy Sullivan

2015-01-01

Empirical and dynamic biogeochemical modelling are complementary approaches for determining the critical load (CL) of atmospheric nitrogen (N) or other constituent deposition that an ecosystem can tolerate without causing ecological harm. The greatest benefits are obtained when these approaches are used in combination. Confounding environmental factors can complicate...

Toward a Common Structure in Demographic Educational Modeling and Simulation: A Complex Systems Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guevara, Porfirio

2014-01-01

This article identifies elements and connections that seem to be relevant to explain persistent aggregate behavioral patterns in educational systems when using complex dynamical systems modeling and simulation approaches. Several studies have shown what factors are at play in educational fields, but confusion still remains about the underlying…

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. Methods An epidemic is characterized trough an individual–based–model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. Results A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. Conclusions The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease. PMID:24725804

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach.

PubMed

López, Leonardo; Burguerner, Germán; Giovanini, Leonardo

2014-04-12

The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. An epidemic is characterized trough an individual-based-model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease.

Acoustic measurement of sediment dynamics in the coastal zones using wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhakaran, A., II; Paramasivam, A.; Seshachalam, S.; A, C.

2014-12-01

Analyzing of the impact of constructive or low energy waves and deconstructive or high energy waves in the ocean are very much significant since they deform the geometry of seashore. The deformation may lead to productive result and also to the end of deteriorate damage. Constructive waves results deposition of sediment which widens the beach where as deconstructive waves results erosion which narrows the beach. Validation of historic sediment transportation and prediction of the direction of movement of seashore is essential to prevent unrecoverable damages by incorporating precautionary measurements to identify the factors that influence sediment transportation if feasible. The objective of this study is to propose a more reliable and energy efficient Information and communication system to model the Coastal Sediment Dynamics. Various factors influencing the sediment drift at a particular region is identified. Consequence of source depth and frequency dependencies of spread pattern in the presence of sediments is modeled. Property of source depth and frequency on sensitivity to values of model parameters are determined. Fundamental physical reasons for these sediment interaction effects are given. Shallow to deep water and internal and external wave model of ocean is obtained intended to get acoustic data assimilation (ADA). Signal processing algorithms are used over the observed data to form a full field acoustic propagation model and construct sound speed profile (SSP). The inversions of data due to uncertainties at various depths are compared. The impact of sediment drift over acoustic data is identified. An energy efficient multipath routing scheme Wireless sensor networks (WSN) is deployed for the well-organized communication of data. The WSN is designed considering increased life time, decreased power consumption, free of threats and attacks. The practical data obtained from the efficient system to model the ocean sediment dynamics are evaluated with remote sensing data and the reasons of deviations and uncertainties are unbiased. The probability of changes and impact of sediment drift over ocean dynamic model over the long running of years is estimated.

The explosion at institute: modeling and analyzing the situation awareness factor.

PubMed

Naderpour, Mohsen; Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

2014-12-01

In 2008 a runaway chemical reaction caused an explosion at a methomyl unit in West Virginia, USA, killing two employees, injuring eight people, evacuating more than 40,000 residents adjacent to the facility, disrupting traffic on a nearby highway and causing significant business loss and interruption. Although the accident was formally investigated, the role of the situation awareness (SA) factor, i.e., a correct understanding of the situation, and appropriate models to maintain SA, remain unexplained. This paper extracts details of abnormal situations within the methomyl unit and models them into a situational network using dynamic Bayesian networks. A fuzzy logic system is used to resemble the operator's thinking when confronted with these abnormal situations. The combined situational network and fuzzy logic system make it possible for the operator to assess such situations dynamically to achieve accurate SA. The findings show that the proposed structure provides a useful graphical model that facilitates the inclusion of prior background knowledge and the updating of this knowledge when new information is available from monitoring systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moving From Static to Dynamic Models of the Onset of Mental Disorder: A Review.

PubMed

Nelson, Barnaby; McGorry, Patrick D; Wichers, Marieke; Wigman, Johanna T W; Hartmann, Jessica A

2017-05-01

In recent years, there has been increased focus on subthreshold stages of mental disorders, with attempts to model and predict which individuals will progress to full-threshold disorder. Given this research attention and the clinical significance of the issue, this article analyzes the assumptions of the theoretical models in the field. Psychiatric research into predicting the onset of mental disorder has shown an overreliance on one-off sampling of cross-sectional data (ie, a snapshot of clinical state and other risk markers) and may benefit from taking dynamic changes into account in predictive modeling. Cross-disciplinary approaches to complex system structures and changes, such as dynamical systems theory, network theory, instability mechanisms, chaos theory, and catastrophe theory, offer potent models that can be applied to the emergence (or decline) of psychopathology, including psychosis prediction, as well as to transdiagnostic emergence of symptoms. Psychiatric research may benefit from approaching psychopathology as a system rather than as a category, identifying dynamics of system change (eg, abrupt vs gradual psychosis onset), and determining the factors to which these systems are most sensitive (eg, interpersonal dynamics and neurochemical change) and the individual variability in system architecture and change. These goals can be advanced by testing hypotheses that emerge from cross-disciplinary models of complex systems. Future studies require repeated longitudinal assessment of relevant variables through either (or a combination of) micro-level (momentary and day-to-day) and macro-level (month and year) assessments. Ecological momentary assessment is a data collection technique appropriate for micro-level assessment. Relevant statistical approaches are joint modeling and time series analysis, including metric-based and model-based methods that draw on the mathematical principles of dynamical systems. This next generation of prediction studies may more accurately model the dynamic nature of psychopathology and system change as well as have treatment implications, such as introducing a means of identifying critical periods of risk for mental state deterioration.

Dynamical clockwork axions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coy, Rupert; Frigerio, Michele; Ibe, Masahiro

2017-10-01

The clockwork mechanism is a novel method for generating a large separation between the dynamical scale and interaction scale of a theory. We demonstrate how the mechanism can arise from a sequence of strongly-coupled sectors. This framework avoids elementary scalar fields as well as ad hoc continuous global symmetries, both of which are subject to serious stability issues. The clockwork factor, q, is determined by the consistency of the strong dynamics. The preserved global U(1) of the clockwork appears as an accidental symmetry, resulting from discrete or U(1) gauge symmetries, and it is spontaneously broken by the chiral condensates. We apply such a dynamical clockwork to construct models with an effectively invisible QCD axion from TeV-scale strong dynamics. The axion couplings are determined by the localisation of the Standard Model interactions along the clockwork sequence. The TeV spectrum includes either coloured hadrons or vector-like quarks. Dark matter can be accounted for by the axion or the lightest neutral baryons, which are accidentally stable.

Integration of Multiple Data Sources to Simulate the Dynamics of Land Systems

PubMed Central

Deng, Xiangzheng; Su, Hongbo; Zhan, Jinyan

2008-01-01

In this paper we present and develop a new model, which we have called Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS). The DLS model is capable of integrating multiple data sources to simulate the dynamics of a land system. Three main modules are incorporated in DLS: a spatial regression module, to explore the relationship between land uses and influencing factors, a scenario analysis module of the land uses of a region during the simulation period and a spatial disaggregation module, to allocate land use changes from a regional level to disaggregated grid cells. A case study on Taips County in North China is incorporated in this paper to test the functionality of DLS. The simulation results under the baseline, economic priority and environmental scenarios help to understand the land system dynamics and project near future land-use trajectories of a region, in order to focus management decisions on land uses and land use planning. PMID:27879726

Measurement of the dynamic input impedance of a dc superconducting quantum interference device at audio frequencies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Falferi, P.; Mezzena, R.; Vitale, S.

1997-08-01

The coupling effects of a commercial dc superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) to an electrical LC resonator which operates at audio frequencies ({approx}1kHz) with quality factors Q{approx}10{sup 6} are presented. The variations of the resonance frequency of the resonator as functions of the flux applied to the SQUID are due to the SQUID dynamic inductance in good agreement with the predictions of a model. The variations of the quality factor point to a feedback mechanism between the output of the SQUID and the input circuit. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

Impact of transient soil water simulation to estimated nitrogen leaching and emission at high- and low-deposition forest sites in southern California

Treesearch

Yuan Yuan; Thomas Meixner; Mark E. Fenn; Jirka Simunek

2011-01-01

Soil water dynamics and drainage are key abiotic factors controlling losses of atmospherically deposited N in Southern California. In this paper soil N leaching and trace gaseous emissions simulated by the DAYCENT biogeochemical model using its original semi‐dynamic water flow module were compared to that coupled with a finite element transient water flow...

Measuring and modeling stemflow by two xerophytic shrubs in the Loess Plateau: The role of dynamic canopy structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Li, X.; Li, W.; Shi, F.; Wu, H.; WU, X.; Pei, T.

2016-12-01

Stemflow plays an important role in hydrological processes in dryland shrubs, but it still remains poorly understood, especially regarding the effects of dynamic canopy structure on stemflow. This study aimed to measure and model the stemflow of two dominant xerophytic shrub (Hippophae rhamnoides and Spiraea pubescens) communities and to identify the key controlling factors of stemflow yield. We quantified and scaled-up stemflow from branches and leaves to stand levels. Correlations and stepwise regression analysis between stemflow and meteorological and biological factors indicated that at branch level, the rainfall amount and the branch diameter were the best variables for modelling and predicting stemflow for Hippophae rhamnoides, while the rainfall amount and the aboveground biomass were the best variables for modelling and predicting stemflow for Spiraea pubescens. At stand level, the stemflow yield is mostly affected by rainfall amount and leaf area index for both shrubs. The stemflow fluxes account for 3.5±0.9% of incident rainfall for H. rhamnoides community and 9.4±2.1% for S. pubescens community, respectively. The differences in percentages of stemflow between the two shrub communities was attributed to differences in canopy structures and water storage capacities. This evaluation of the effects of canopy structure dynamics on stemflow, and of the developed model, provided a better understanding of the effect of the canopy structure on the water cycles in dryland shrub ecosystems.

3D Spatially Resolved Models of the Intracellular Dynamics of the Hepatitis C Genome Replication Cycle

PubMed Central

Reiter, Sebastian; Grillo, Alfio; Herrmann, Eva; Wittum, Gabriel

2017-01-01

Mathematical models of virus dynamics have not previously acknowledged spatial resolution at the intracellular level despite substantial arguments that favor the consideration of intracellular spatial dependence. The replication of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) viral RNA (vRNA) occurs within special replication complexes formed from membranes derived from endoplasmatic reticulum (ER). These regions, termed membranous webs, are generated primarily through specific interactions between nonstructural virus-encoded proteins (NSPs) and host cellular factors. The NSPs are responsible for the replication of the vRNA and their movement is restricted to the ER surface. Therefore, in this study we developed fully spatio-temporal resolved models of the vRNA replication cycle of HCV. Our simulations are performed upon realistic reconstructed cell structures—namely the ER surface and the membranous webs—based on data derived from immunostained cells replicating HCV vRNA. We visualized 3D simulations that reproduced dynamics resulting from interplay of the different components of our models (vRNA, NSPs, and a host factor), and we present an evaluation of the concentrations for the components within different regions of the cell. Thus far, our model is restricted to an internal portion of a hepatocyte and is qualitative more than quantitative. For a quantitative adaption to complete cells, various additional parameters will have to be determined through further in vitro cell biology experiments, which can be stimulated by the results described in the present study. PMID:28973992

From individuals to populations to communities: a dynamic energy budget model of marine ecosystem size-spectrum including life history diversity.

PubMed

Maury, Olivier; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

2013-05-07

Individual metabolism, predator-prey relationships, and the role of biodiversity are major factors underlying the dynamics of food webs and their response to environmental variability. Despite their crucial, complementary and interacting influences, they are usually not considered simultaneously in current marine ecosystem models. In an attempt to fill this gap and determine if these factors and their interaction are sufficient to allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge, we formulate a mathematical model of the size-structured dynamics of marine communities which integrates mechanistically individual, population and community levels. The model represents the transfer of energy generated in both time and size by an infinite number of interacting fish species spanning from very small to very large species. It is based on standard individual level assumptions of the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB) as well as important ecological processes such as opportunistic size-based predation and competition for food. Resting on the inter-specific body-size scaling relationships of the DEB theory, the diversity of life-history traits (i.e. biodiversity) is explicitly integrated. The stationary solutions of the model as well as the transient solutions arising when environmental signals (e.g. variability of primary production and temperature) propagate through the ecosystem are studied using numerical simulations. It is shown that in the absence of density-dependent feedback processes, the model exhibits unstable oscillations. Density-dependent schooling probability and schooling-dependent predatory and disease mortalities are proposed to be important stabilizing factors allowing stationary solutions to be reached. At the community level, the shape and slope of the obtained quasi-linear stationary spectrum matches well with empirical studies. When oscillations of primary production are simulated, the model predicts that the variability propagates along the spectrum in a given frequency-dependent size range before decreasing for larger sizes. At the species level, the simulations show that small and large species dominate the community successively (small species being more abundant at small sizes and large species being more abundant at large sizes) and that the total biomass of a species decreases with its maximal size which again corroborates empirical studies. Our results indicate that the simultaneous consideration of individual growth and reproduction, size-structured trophic interactions, the diversity of life-history traits and a density-dependent stabilizing process allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge without any arbitrary prescription. As a logical consequence of our model construction and a basis for future studies, we define the function Φ as the relative contribution of each species to the total biomass of the ecosystem, for any given size. We argue that this function is a measure of the functional role of biodiversity characterizing the impact of the structure of the community (its species composition) on its function (the relative proportions of losses, dissipation and biological work). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated approach to evaluate policies for controlling traffic law violations.

PubMed

Mehmood, Arif

2010-03-01

Modeling dynamics of the driver behavior is a complex problem. In this paper a system approach is introduced to model and to analyze the driver behavior related to traffic law violations in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. This paper demonstrates how the theoretical relationships between different factors can be expressed formally, and how the resulting model can assist in evaluating potential benefits of various policies to control the traffic law violations Using system approach, an integrated dynamic simulation model is developed, and model is tested to simulate the driver behavior for violating traffic laws during 2002-2007 in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The dynamic simulation model attempts to address the questions: (1) "what" interventions should be implemented to reduce and eventually control traffic violations which will lead to improving road safety and (2) "how" to justify those interventions will be effective or ineffective to control the violations in different transportation conditions. The simulation results reveal promising capability of applying system approach in the policy evaluation studies. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantum Bohmian model for financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga Al.

2007-01-01

We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. The Hamiltonian formalism on the price/price-change phase space describes the classical-like evolution of prices. This classical dynamics of prices is determined by “hard” conditions (natural resources, industrial production, services and so on). These conditions are mathematically described by the classical financial potential V(q), where q=(q1,…,qn) is the vector of prices of various shares. But the information exchange and market psychology play important (and sometimes determining) role in price dynamics. We propose to describe such behavioral financial factors by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The theory of financial behavioral waves takes into account the market psychology. The real trajectories of prices are determined (through the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) (“hard” market conditions) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

A new method for the prediction of chatter stability lobes based on dynamic cutting force simulation model and support vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Chong; Wang, Lun; Liao, T. Warren

2015-10-01

Currently, chatter has become the critical factor in hindering machining quality and productivity in machining processes. To avoid cutting chatter, a new method based on dynamic cutting force simulation model and support vector machine (SVM) is presented for the prediction of chatter stability lobes. The cutting force is selected as the monitoring signal, and the wavelet energy entropy theory is used to extract the feature vectors. A support vector machine is constructed using the MATLAB LIBSVM toolbox for pattern classification based on the feature vectors derived from the experimental cutting data. Then combining with the dynamic cutting force simulation model, the stability lobes diagram (SLD) can be estimated. Finally, the predicted results are compared with existing methods such as zero-order analytical (ZOA) and semi-discretization (SD) method as well as actual cutting experimental results to confirm the validity of this new method.

Model implementation for dynamic computation of system cost for advanced life support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levri, J. A.; Vaccari, D. A.

2004-01-01

Life support system designs for long-duration space missions have a multitude of requirements drivers, such as mission objectives, political considerations, cost, crew wellness, inherent mission attributes, as well as many other influences. Evaluation of requirements satisfaction can be difficult, particularly at an early stage of mission design. Because launch cost is a critical factor and relatively easy to quantify, it is a point of focus in early mission design. The method used to determine launch cost influences the accuracy of the estimate. This paper discusses the appropriateness of dynamic mission simulation in estimating the launch cost of a life support system. This paper also provides an abbreviated example of a dynamic simulation life support model and possible ways in which such a model might be utilized for design improvement. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A dynamic spatio-temporal model for spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Analyzing spatial data often requires modeling dependencies created by a dynamic spatio-temporal data generating process. In many applications, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used with a random effect to account for spatial dependence and to provide optimal spatial predictions. Location-specific covariates are often included as fixed effects in a GLMM and may be collinear with the spatial random effect, which can negatively affect inference. We propose a dynamic approach to account for spatial dependence that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal data generating process. Our approach relies on a dynamic spatio-temporal model that explicitly incorporates location-specific covariates. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model implemented using a computationally efficient homogenization technique. We apply our model to understand individual-level and location-specific risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer from Wisconsin, USA and estimate the location the disease was first introduced. We compare our approach to several existing methods that are commonly used in spatial statistics. Our spatio-temporal approach resulted in a higher predictive accuracy when compared to methods based on optimal spatial prediction, obviated confounding among the spatially indexed covariates and the spatial random effect, and provided additional information that will be important for containing disease outbreaks.

Sexual reproduction and population dynamics: the role of polygyny and demographic sex differences.

PubMed Central

Lindström, J; Kokko, H

1998-01-01

Most models of population dynamics do not take sexual reproduction into account (i.e., they do not consider the role of males). However, assumptions behind this practice--that no demographic sex differences exist and males are always abundant enough to fertilize all the females--are usually not justified in natural populations. On the contrary, demographic sex differences are common, especially in polygynous species. Previous models that consider sexual reproduction report a stabilizing effect through mixing of different genotypes, thus suggesting a decrease in the propensity for complex of dynamics in sexually reproducing populations. Here we show that considering the direct role of males in reproduction and density dependence leads to the conclusion that a two-sex model is not necessarily more stable compared with the corresponding one-sex model. Although solutions exist where sexual reproduction has a stabilizing effect even when no genotypic variability is included (primarily when associated with monogamy), factors like polygyny, sex differences in survival or density dependence, and possible alterations of the primary sex ratio (the Trivers-Willard mechanism), may enlarge the parametric region of complex dynamics. Sexual reproduction therefore does not necessarily increase the stability of population dynamics and can have destabilizing effects, at least in species with complicated mating systems and sexual dimorphism. PMID:9606132

DYNAMO-HIA–A Dynamic Modeling Tool for Generic Health Impact Assessments

PubMed Central

Lhachimi, Stefan K.; Nusselder, Wilma J.; Smit, Henriette A.; van Baal, Pieter; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C.; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Boshuizen, Hendriek C.

2012-01-01

Background Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. Methods and Results DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures – e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy – and detailed data – e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates – by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. Conclusion By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on epidemiologic evidence. PMID:22590491

The spatial scale for cisco recruitment dynamics in Lake Superior during 1978-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rook, Benjamin J.; Hansen, Michael J.; Gorman, Owen T.

2012-01-01

The cisco Coregonus artedi was once the most abundant fish species in the Great Lakes, but currently cisco populations are greatly reduced and management agencies are attempting to restore the species throughout the basin. To increase understanding of the spatial scale at which density‐independent and density‐dependent factors influence cisco recruitment dynamics in the Great Lakes, we used a Ricker stock–recruitment model to identify and quantify the appropriate spatial scale for modeling age‐1 cisco recruitment dynamics in Lake Superior. We found that the recruitment variation of ciscoes in Lake Superior was best described by a five‐parameter regional model with separate stock–recruitment relationships for the western, southern, eastern, and northern regions. The spatial scale for modeling was about 260 km (range = 230–290 km). We also found that the density‐independent recruitment rate and the rate of compensatory density dependence varied among regions at different rates. The density‐independent recruitment rate was constant among regions (3.6 age‐1 recruits/spawner), whereas the rate of compensatory density dependence varied 16‐fold among regions (range = −0.2 to −2.9/spawner). Finally, we found that peak recruitment and the spawning stock size that produced peak recruitment varied among regions. Both peak recruitment (0.5–7.1 age‐1 recruits/ha) and the spawning stock size that produced peak recruitment (0.3–5.3 spawners/ha) varied 16‐fold among regions. Our findings support the hypothesis that the factors driving cisco recruitment operate within four different regions of Lake Superior, suggest that large‐scale abiotic factors are more important than small‐scale biotic factors in influencing cisco recruitment, and suggest that fishery managers throughout Lake Superior and the entire Great Lakes basin should address cisco restoration and management efforts on a regional scale in each lake.

Aeroelastic modeling for the FIT (Functional Integration Technology) team F/A-18 simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeiler, Thomas A.; Wieseman, Carol D.

1989-01-01

As part of Langley Research Center's commitment to developing multidisciplinary integration methods to improve aerospace systems, the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team was established to perform dynamics integration research using an existing aircraft configuration, the F/A-18. An essential part of this effort has been the development of a comprehensive simulation modeling capability that includes structural, control, and propulsion dynamics as well as steady and unsteady aerodynamics. The structural and unsteady aerodynamics contributions come from an aeroelastic mode. Some details of the aeroelastic modeling done for the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team research are presented. Particular attention is given to work done in the area of correction factors to unsteady aerodynamics data.

Measurement and modeling of the refilling plasmasphere during 2001

DOE PAGES

Krall, J.; Huba, J. D.; Jordanova, V. K.; ...

2016-03-18

The Naval Research Laboratory SAMI3 (Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere) and the RAM-CPL (Ring current Atmosphere interaction Model-Cold PLasma) codes are used to model observed plasmasphere dynamics during 25 November 2001 to 1 December 2001 and 1–5 February 2001. Model results compare well to plasmasphere observations of electron and mass densities. Comparison of model results to refilling data and to each other shows good agreement, generally within a factor of 2. We find that SAMI3 plasmaspheric refilling rates and ion densities are sensitive to the composition and temperature of the thermosphere and exosphere, and to photoelectron heating.more » Furthermore, results also support our previous finding that the wind-driven dynamo significantly impacts both refilling rates and plasmasphere dynamics during quiet periods.« less

Measurement and modeling of the refilling plasmasphere during 2001

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krall, J.; Huba, J. D.; Jordanova, V. K.

The Naval Research Laboratory SAMI3 (Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere) and the RAM-CPL (Ring current Atmosphere interaction Model-Cold PLasma) codes are used to model observed plasmasphere dynamics during 25 November 2001 to 1 December 2001 and 1–5 February 2001. Model results compare well to plasmasphere observations of electron and mass densities. Comparison of model results to refilling data and to each other shows good agreement, generally within a factor of 2. We find that SAMI3 plasmaspheric refilling rates and ion densities are sensitive to the composition and temperature of the thermosphere and exosphere, and to photoelectron heating.more » Furthermore, results also support our previous finding that the wind-driven dynamo significantly impacts both refilling rates and plasmasphere dynamics during quiet periods.« less